Jim, the stronger correlation here is the DXY.

When the DXY rises, the US10Y dumps. This did not used to be the case, but it is the new normal as foreign countries sell bonds to defend their currencies.

If the U.S. hikes rates, the dollar will continue to firm and bonds will keep dumping.

Of course, as you note, if the Fed cuts inflation expectations will rise and bonds will also dump.

In other words, it does not matter what the Fed hikes or cuts. Bonds will keep dumping until the Treasury defaults on the debt or the Fed goes into Yield Curve Control.