I fed the entire transcript of Friday’s Supreme Court hearing on the TikTok ban to ChatGPT and asked it to analyze the most likely outcome. 

It found that the Court was more likely than not to rule against the law or issue a narrow decision temporarily blocking its enforcement in a split 5-4 or 6-3 decision. 

It found the likelihood of TikTok getting banned on the 19th to be 40%. 

Once you add in the additional context that Trump explicitly asked for a delay in enforcement, it drops the odds of a ban to 25-30%

We’ll find out next week if it’s right! Currently, PolyMarket odds are 70% that the platform will be banned before May. 

If you trust in AI over the mainstream media (who drove up polymarket odds with clickbait-y headlines) this is a great arbitrage opportunity