2/3

If this is correct, and the cycle changed in 2020 from disinflation/deflation to inflation, this Fed Speak from last week will only drive 10-year yields higher.

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Bloomberg – Fed’s Schmid Backs Gradual Rate Cuts If Economic Data Improve (KC Fed President)

Bloomberg – Fed’s Harker Says More Rate Cuts Are Coming But Timing Uncertain (Philly Fed President)

Bloomberg – Fed’s Collins Says Uncertainties Point to Slower Cuts in 2025 (Boston Fed President)

Bloomberg - Fed’s Goolsbee Says Jobs Data Shows Labor Market Stabilizing
Goolsbee sticks by call for lower rates in next 12-18 months (Chicago Fed Predient)

Yahoo - Fed's Waller still sees rate cuts in 2025 despite Trump tariff talk (Fed Governor)
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The 1981 cutting cycle (brown) started in May 1981, when the Fed lowered the funds rate from 20%.

The bond market did not like it, so the 10-year yield went from 12% to almost 16%.

@yardeni  coined the term "bond market vigilante" during this period.

The current cutting cycle (black) has seen a larger yield rise than everything but 1981.