ARCTIC COLD, SNOW, AND RUMORS OF SNOW: Not much of a break for those of us in the weather business.

The focus now shifts to the January 20-27 time frame as what looks to be the coldest air so far season will invade the contiguous U.S. A few notes...

*A cross polar flow pattern is advertised by global model ensembles. Remember, there in no skill at a specific weather forecast beyond 10 days, but we do have skill at recognizing the overall upper pattern. Air from Siberia will likely be transported over the pole and into North America.

*How cold? Nobody knows for now, but some guidance suggests temperatures 30 degrees below average for late January.

*Another winter storm? Sure, very possible as the pattern looks active. Everybody from Sponge Bob to Uncle Joe will be posting this morning's deterministic European run which shows a big snow storm here around Tuesday January 21. But, that will come and go many times over the next few days. Deterministic model output at this range means nothing for now other than gathering likes and shares on social media.

*Stick with ensemble probabilities at this range. I have attached the latest European probabilistic outlook for one inch or snow or greater through January 23.

Stay tuned for updates in coming days; the weather will be far from boring around here for the rest of the month.