Trust: A Cornerstone of Diplomacy

Trust is the foundation of effective diplomacy, and once broken, it becomes exceedingly difficult to restore. In the context of Ethiopia’s relationships with Eritrea and Somalia, a history of betrayal and Abiy Ahmed’s actions has severely strained ties, hindering Ethiopia’s potential naval ambitions and regional relations.

1. Betrayal and Diplomatic Fallout

Eritrea: After the initial thaw in relations following the 2018 peace agreement, Eritrea likely feels that Ethiopia      under Abiy Ahmed exploited the goodwill without fulfilling mutual expectations. For example, Ethiopia’s inability or unwillingness to fully demarcate borders has been seen as a breach of trust. Moreover, Eritrea’s      involvement in the war against the TPLF, which implicated it in alleged war crimes, added to the tensions, leaving cooperation almost impossible.

Somalia: Ethiopia’s actions regarding Somaliland and accusations of meddling in Somalia’s domestic politics have further eroded trust. Attempts to undermine President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), coupled with perceptions of opportunism and self-interest, have alienated Somalia’s leadership and weakened Ethiopia’s credibility.

2. Diplomatic Norms Broken

Erosion of Trust: Trust and consistency are fundamental in diplomacy. Open betrayal or failure to honor agreements—explicit or implicit—undermines a country’s credibility with neighbors and the international community.

Unreliability: Ethiopia’s perceived unreliability discourages Eritrea, Somalia, and even neutral neighbors like Djibouti from offering naval access. These countries fear Ethiopia could leverage such access for coercive purposes or act unpredictably.

3. Long-Term Consequences of Betrayal

Isolation: Ethiopia risks further regional isolation as Somalia and Eritrea strengthen alliances with other powers, such as Egypt or Gulf states, to counterbalance Ethiopian influence.

Loss of Strategic Partnerships: Eritrea and Somalia are likely to deepen their collaboration to contain Ethiopia, particularly if Abiy Ahmed’s government continues with policies perceived as hostile or destabilizing.

4. Barriers to Naval Access

Eritrea and Somalia’s Opposition: Eritrea and Somalia are unlikely to grant Ethiopia access to maritime resources. The deep mistrust, coupled with Ethiopia’s perceived unpredictability, prevents the possibility of meaningful agreements.

Djibouti’s Caution: Even Djibouti, historically a stable partner for Ethiopia, may limit cooperation if Ethiopia’s regional strategies appear destabilizing or self-serving.

5. The Path Forward: Rebuilding Trust

While the current situation appears grim, Ethiopia could consider the following measures to rebuild trust and repair relationships:

Regime Change: A change in leadership in Ethiopia could signal a fresh start and open opportunities to mend strained ties with Eritrea and Somalia.

Focus on Internal Stability: Ethiopia must address its internal challenges, such as ethnic conflicts and political instability, to project strength and reliability in its regional relationships.

Genuine Diplomacy: Prioritizing consistent, transparent, and mutually beneficial diplomacy will be key to earning back trust.

Given the immense mistrust between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, it is highly unlikely that any neighboring country would willingly grant Ethiopia access to maritime resources under current circumstances. Abiy Ahmed’s government faces a monumental challenge, as rebuilding trust after betrayal is among the most difficult tasks in international relations. To succeed, Ethiopia must first resolve its internal crises and adopt a diplomatic approach grounded in sincerity, consistency, and mutual respect.

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