I would say my personal opinion of what I have heard aligns weirdly with what Patrick is saying here:

Do I buy 100% of what was said? No.

Do I buy 0% of what was said? Also no.

On the prediction market, I think the annoying part is that it's likely a mix of things that are true, things that are false, and things that are out-of-context or misunderstands (I have likely sarcastically said "who needs a blockchain when we have FDIC insurance" or something similar more than once in my life so just seeing that without tone or context is meaningless. Hell, I'm 100% certain I wrote "we should all obviously try to be more like SBF" very, very, very sarcastically somewhere).

What catches my attention is the odd level of specificity of some of these things, which also makes me wonder if we are dealing with multiple sources, some of which have good info, some of which may be fabulists, some of which may be emotionally motivated and not reasonable, and some of which may be well intentioned but out of context, etc.

This is why I have said the right move, given all the smoke, is an investigation. Nothing we know so far is dispositive. What we do need is to know, not to rush to judgment.