Tips of the Game (Part 2)

1) Think in Bets
Evaluate decisions based on probabilities and potential outcomes, not just the results. A good outcome doesn’t always mean it was a good decision—and vice versa.

2) Inverse Thinking
Flip the problem. Instead of asking, “How can I win?” ask, “What could make me lose?” Often, avoiding mistakes is as powerful as chasing wins.

3) Second-Order Thinking
Think beyond the immediate effects of a decision. Consider the ripple effects—what happens next, and how will that impact the bigger picture?

4) First Principles Thinking
Strip away assumptions and break down ideas to their core components. Rebuild your understanding from the ground up for clearer insights and solutions.

5) The Map Is Not the Territory
A thesis or prediction is just a guide—it’s not reality. Stay flexible and update your approach as new information emerges.

6) Trade Emotions
Extreme ends of volatility - whether from panic or overexcitement - often present the best opportunities. Learn to profit from others’ emotional swings.

7) Trade Attention
Markets follow attention. Anticipate where it will go and position yourself early. Trends are fueled by what people notice and discuss.

8) Reactive or Predictive?
Know your style. Are you reacting to what’s happening or predicting what’s next? Focus on mastering one approach rather than spreading yourself thin.

9) Too Many Positions, Too Much Mindshare
Over-diversification dilutes focus. Simplify your portfolio to free up mental bandwidth for better decision-making.

10) The Underallocation Trap
Being underexposed in a bull market often leads to rash decisions just to “feel something.” Solve this by allocating to the cycle’s main asset—this cycle, it was BTC.

11) You Can Cut and Rebuy
Don’t be afraid to sell and re-enter at a better price. Sticking to a bad position out of stubbornness costs more than cutting it.

12) Add to Winners More, Rarely Add to Losers
When a position is working, learn to spot that early on and add to it. Resist the urge to double down on losers - most of the time, they’ll keep losing. Focus on strength, not hope.

13) Be Cognisant of Blind Luck
Sometimes, success is just luck. Recognise it to avoid overconfidence and keep improving your process.

14) Don’t Ruin Your Reputation for Short-Term Gains
Your reputation is a long-term asset. Don’t burn it for short-term wins - it’s rarely worth the cost.

15) Play Long-Term Games with Long-Term Players
Surround yourself with people who value trust, integrity, and growth. Long-term success comes from building relationships and collaborating with those who think beyond quick wins.

16) Remember Liquidity Is a Thing
Liquidity works both ways. On the downside, it can dry up fast, leaving you stuck. Always factor liquidity into your risk management.

17) Bad Execution of a Good Idea Isn’t Worth Much
Even the best ideas need proper execution to succeed. Focus on implementation - good ideas poorly executed are just wasted potential.

18) No One Will Tell You Their Take Profit
Don’t rely on others to signal when to exit. Operate on your own timeline and strategy - waiting for external cues often leads to missed opportunities.

19) Reflexivity (Soros)
Markets don’t just reflect reality - they influence it. Understand how feedback loops between prices and fundamentals can amplify trends or turn them abruptly.

20) Focus on Batting Averages, But Bet Big When It Counts
As Druckenmiller famously emphasised, it’s not just about how often you’re right - it’s about how much you make when you’re right. Identify high-conviction opportunities and bet big when the odds are in your favor.