True talent is the ability to navigate a crisis.

Anyone can run a fire department when there are no fires.

Anyone can trade a market without drawdowns.

Anyone can keep their job when there are no layoffs.

Most can profit when there is no recession.

Let me make a contrarian prediction:

Newsom survives this.

Why?

He doesn’t just have beautiful hair.

He has talent. He survived banging his campaign manager’s wife. He survived a recall. Politics doesn’t necessarily optimize for the best governmental output, but whatever it does optimize for, he doesn’t well.