1) Almost all countries doing AI research has started their semi conductor industry

2) It's a literal software - there is no way to license a software (thats like shutting down or regulating torrents) 

3) companies will fund startups in tier 2 and tier 3 (which they are already doing) and acquihire them once this policy fails or if they find out loophooles

4) if you put a training restrictions on GPU count , people will train on TPU or build architecture that is better on limited GPU. This will create even more dangerous AI because now AI is not limited by capital. 

5) AI company will shift headquarters to best and cheap data available companies. To scale their AI, more data = more AI.