I would say no in both my thinktank and Australia. At least not yet.

Conservative Australia lacks a charismatic vessel to garner significant momentum. There is kindling for populism simmering, but there is no ignition/face of it yet.

I would argue the preference cascade starts in the centre. I think Aus still has a strong centre-left (that would move directionally left at the margin) whereas the US result was a homogenous shift right for moderates. Aus is not preference cascade territory for mine.

Another lesson from the US was that the preference cascade (vibe-shift) was palpable after the fact. Given Australia’s pronounced tall poppy syndrome, I would guess that a vibe shift that qualifies as a preference cascade would have higher social proof barriers. We also simply don’t have the cultural infrastructure that gave Trump the tailwind. We don’t have Rogan, Elon, Sacks, Andreesen, Kirk, Megyn Kelly etc. equivalents that shift cultural mores. You can’t usher in a ‘vibe shift’ exclusively from Parliament. So it would be dependent on an emphatic Dutton victory and some conservative renaissance in Aus culture which I don’t see happening.

I also think in general Australians have less woke fatigue than the US. Collectivist ideology is still very seductive in my generation.

I don’t think there will be a holistic shift right like the US. I predict preference falsification to hold. There will still be wealthy, asset-rich Australians who find status in luxury beliefs who will shift left from centre. I expect most Teals to hold and some new ones to win. And we have to remember that 2022 was indeed a preference cascade left in blue-ribbon Liberal seats. The future of the moderate Liberal Party was decimated, leaving the right faction to pick up leadership. I struggle to see a preference cascade occurring in wealthy metropolitan electorates such that a Teal voter will hurry back to an even more conservative Coalition.

If anything you will see a backlash to the extreme left, feel like some Federal Greens might be under threat. Particularly those stoking antisemitism.