Experts and the Thali of Wisdom

You know how some restaurants proudly advertise thalis with dozens of dishes? Market experts are a bit like that. Every time the market moves sharply, they roll out a grand thali of explanations—each served with the gravitas of someone who claims to understand everything.

As I write this, the Sensex has taken what the financial media loves to dramatize as a “nosedive,” dropping over 4.5% in the past month. Right on cue, our ever-reliable experts have served up their familiar buffet of reasons with great seriousness.

The current favorite on the menu? Geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Apparently, our market has just discovered that the region isn’t exactly a meditation retreat. Experts are painting vivid pictures of how tensions between Iran and Israel are causing stocks in Mumbai to tremble.

Then comes the old classic: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are selling. Supposedly, they’ve had a sudden epiphany that Indian valuations are high—a revelation that struck them like lightning, despite these valuations being just as high a few months ago when they were buying.

The explanations don’t stop there. Disappointing corporate earnings and high valuations are suddenly major culprits, even though they’ve always been around. We’re also told about US Treasury yields, underwhelming banking results, and FMCG companies not growing fast enough for some analyst’s spreadsheet. These factors only become crucial when the market falls.

Then there’s the inevitable talk about domestic macros and politics. Some lament “stagnant tax collections” or bemoan what they see as a lack of economic action. And with elections around the corner, every political whisper is treated as a potential market earthquake.

The most amusing part? Just a few months ago, I wrote about a similar episode in Japan. Their market dropped 12.4% in a single day, only to rebound 10.2% the next day. Experts there also rolled out reasons—from the Bank of Japan’s policies to the collapse of the yen carry trade. Different markets, same script.

This brings us to an inconvenient truth about market expertise: if you’re looking for reasons why the market moved on any particular day, you’ll always find them. They’ll sound logical and convincing. But more often than not, they’ll be irrelevant to your long-term financial well-being.

Think about the past few decades. We’ve survived wars, oil shocks, Harshad Mehta, the Asian crisis, the dot-com bust, the 2008 meltdown, COVID-19, and enough political drama to fill a Netflix series. Yet, investors who stuck to basics like diversification and regular investing have done remarkably well.

Despite the headlines, the current market decline isn’t special. Yes, the Sensex has trended downward over the past few months. But if you’re investing for the next decade or two, this decline will likely be as memorable as last year’s monsoon—which is to say, not at all.

So, what should a sensible investor do in these “turbulent” times?
1. Recognize that market volatility is natural. It’s like traffic in our cities—it’s not going away, and stressing over it won’t help.
2. Use this time to review your asset allocation. If this decline is causing sleepless nights, your portfolio might be taking on more risk than you’re comfortable with.
3. Stay disciplined. Successful investing isn’t about reacting to every market hiccup or expert proclamation. It’s about being steady, staying invested through cycles, and regularly adding to your investments—regardless of market conditions.

If someone were perpetually scared of bad news, they’d never invest. And wouldn’t that be the biggest folly of all?

Next time you see experts gyan on market movements with absolute certainty, treat it for what it is: entertainment—amusing to watch, but definitely not something to base your financial decisions on.

Investing is about ignoring the noise while steadily building wealth. And that is the ultimate thali of wisdom you need.