I would put the odds of the Tik Tok ban holding in its intended form over the medium-term (more than 6 months) at sub-5%.

There will be enormous pushback on the idea of handing so much power to Zuck.

Public perception will be bad. 

People like the app more than they care about privacy or understand the national security risk.

That said, the concerns are warranted. 

Tik Tok captures way more data than they should on users including location and behavioral patterns (creepy but also dangerous). 

It also creates a direct megaphone for a foreign adversary to direct propaganda and certain information into our populous, which would have been unheard before the internet. 

We’ll see what happens but I’m betting Tik Tok is up and running in its current form in 6 months.