OSI Terror Analysis Jan 2025.

US; large-scale attacks and threat of radicalized lone actors or small cells inspired by al-Qaeda's ideology remains. The possibility of  individuals or small groups attempting attacks in the U.S. continues to be a concern, especially given the global reach of al-Qaeda's propaganda and high levels of infiltration into the  US homeland.

European Union (EU); faces a multifaceted and evolving set of terrorist threats. Jihadist terrorism by home-grown terrorists and foreign fighters returning from conflict zones is EXTREME. The lethality and sophistication of jihadist attacks have increased.

Left-wing and anarchist groups are likely to become more active and violent as current political trends are against them. VERY HIGH.

Africa; especially the Sahel region, with threats to US Embassies very possible. Groups like Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda affiliates like Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) being particularly active. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are among the countries most impacted by terrorism. EXTREME.

ISIS and al-Qaeda; continue to inspire attacks globally, with ISIS affiliates in Africa being among the largest and most active. The threat from these groups is considered enduring but less acute in the U.S. compared to other parts of the world.