As we turn the page from a first week of the month to the second, the US economic calendar follows its normal flow which turns from the labor market to inflation with the trio of early-month inflation reports (we don’t get PCE prices, the Fed’s favorite gauge until late in the month) in CPI, PPI, and import prices. Coming on the heels of the strong employment report and jump in UofMich inflation expectations, hot inflation prints will almost certainly add fuel to the fire of the bond selloff and shrinking Fed rate cut expectations (and stoke rate hike concerns).

Of course, that’s just part of the data.  We’ll get another widely watched data release in the December retail sales report (even though it only represents around 30% of total consumption) as well as the NFIB small business sentiment, NAHB homebuilder sentiment, industrial production, housing starts and permits, and the normal weekly reports. Also (note listed on the calendar are the NY Fed consumer survey on Monday (I’ll be interested to see if we see the same uptick in inflation expectations as we saw with UMich) and the Fed Beige Book on Wed. So plenty to keep us busy.