NC-1 tells a fascinating story about so-called Trump district and the upcoming 2026 midterms. 

Despite Trump flipping this Biden +1.6 district to R +2.5 in 2024 (per @JMilesColeman's analysis), Davis held on against Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout.

NC-1 Results: 

2024: Davis 49.5% vs Buckhout 47.8%

2022: Davis 52.4% vs Smith 47.6%

NC-1 President Results:

2020: Biden 50.4% vs Trump 48.8%

2024: Trump +2.5 flip

While Davis's margins narrowed from 2022, Republican congressional performance remained remarkably static—Buckhout barely outperformed Sandy Smith's 2022 showing. This suggests that there may be a delta between Trump's growing strength and down-ballot Republican candidates in NC-1. 

However, and despite this, the district should remain a priority target for the GOP in 2026. Especially when considering Trump's performance here in 2024.