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Title: a forecaster's opinion (who is also an economist)
Review: Mr. Ellis really put a lot of work into this book. He coversabout 40 years of data analysis and he contributes some valuableinsights such as 1. Consumer spending drives the economy 2. useyear to year quarters and not previous quarters for comparison3. employment is a lagging indicator 4. Consumer spending alsodrives the stock market.5. The importance of average hourlywages in driving consumer spending.I do have some problems with his book. First of all, he doesnot offer a forecast he offers a model of how the economy is driven. How good would he have forecasted the economy given his mode? another problem I have is that he does not compare hismodel with other models. Did Dri/Chase use his variables andmethodology? if not why not? I am not convinced that he can forcast or his model can any better than what was previouslyused. I do have a number of other problems but as an applicationsoriented practioner I will do delve into theoretical issues.
