Title: Uncertainty measurement with belief entropy on interference effect in Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks,
Abstract: Social dilemmas have been regarded as the essence of evolution game theory,
in which the prisoner's dilemma game is the most famous metaphor for the
problem of cooperation. Recent findings revealed people's behavior violated the
Sure Thing Principle in such games. Classic probability methodologies have
difficulty explaining the underlying mechanisms of people's behavior. In this
paper, a novel quantum-like Bayesian Network was proposed to accommodate the
paradoxical phenomenon. The special network can take interference into
consideration, which is likely to be an efficient way to describe the
underlying mechanism. With the assistance of belief entropy, named as Deng
entropy, the paper proposes Belief Distance to render the model practical.
Tested with empirical data, the proposed model is proved to be predictable and
effective.