Title: More lessons from the six box toy experiment,
Abstract: Following a paper in which the fundamental aspects of probabilistic inference
were introduced by means of a toy experiment, details of the analysis of
simulated long sequences of extractions are shown here. In fact, the striking
performance of probability-based inference and forecasting, compared to those
obtained by simple `rules', might impress those practitioners who are usually
underwhelmed by the philosophical foundation of the different methods. The
analysis of the sequences also shows how the smallness of the probability of
what has been actually observed, given the hypotheses of interest, is
irrelevant for the purpose of inference.