Title: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of functional risk curves based on Gaussian processes,
Abstract: A functional risk curve gives the probability of an undesirable event as a
function of the value of a critical parameter of a considered physical system.
In several applicative situations, this curve is built using phenomenological
numerical models which simulate complex physical phenomena. To avoid cpu-time
expensive numerical models, we propose to use Gaussian process regression to
build functional risk curves. An algorithm is given to provide confidence
bounds due to this approximation. Two methods of global sensitivity analysis of
the models' random input parameters on the functional risk curve are also
studied. In particular, the PLI sensitivity indices allow to understand the
effect of misjudgment on the input parameters' probability density functions.