Title: Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating,
Abstract: In many studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, 210Pb
dating is used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the
most commonly used approaches to estimate the ages of depths in a sequence is
to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of `unsupported' 210Pb from
the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of `supported'
210Pb. Current 210Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework
and thus provide poor estimates of errors. Here we develop a new model for
210Pb dating, where both ages and values of supported and unsupported 210Pb
form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as
well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS
approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix 210Pb with other types of dating,
thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined
estimates.