Title: Phytoplankton Hotspot Prediction With an Unsupervised Spatial Community Model,
Abstract: Many interesting natural phenomena are sparsely distributed and discrete.
Locating the hotspots of such sparsely distributed phenomena is often difficult
because their density gradient is likely to be very noisy. We present a novel
approach to this search problem, where we model the co-occurrence relations
between a robot's observations with a Bayesian nonparametric topic model. This
approach makes it possible to produce a robust estimate of the spatial
distribution of the target, even in the absence of direct target observations.
We apply the proposed approach to the problem of finding the spatial locations
of the hotspots of a specific phytoplankton taxon in the ocean. We use
classified image data from Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB), which automatically
measures individual microscopic cells and colonies of cells. Given these
individual taxon-specific observations, we learn a phytoplankton community
model that characterizes the co-occurrence relations between taxa. We present
experiments with simulated robot missions drawn from real observation data
collected during a research cruise traversing the US Atlantic coast. Our
results show that the proposed approach outperforms nearest neighbor and
k-means based methods for predicting the spatial distribution of hotspots from
in-situ observations.