Title: Secular dynamics of a planar model of the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn-Uranus system; effective stability into the light of Kolmogorov and Nekhoroshev theories,
Abstract: We investigate the long-time stability of the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn-Uranus
system by considering a planar secular model, that can be regarded as a major
refinement of the approach first introduced by Lagrange. Indeed, concerning the
planetary orbital revolutions, we improve the classical circular approximation
by replacing it with a solution that is invariant up to order two in the
masses; therefore, we investigate the stability of the secular system for
rather small values of the eccentricities. First, we explicitly construct a
Kolmogorov normal form, so as to find an invariant KAM torus which approximates
very well the secular orbits. Finally, we adapt the approach that is at basis
of the analytic part of the Nekhoroshev's theorem, so as to show that there is
a neighborhood of that torus for which the estimated stability time is larger
than the lifetime of the Solar System. The size of such a neighborhood,
compared with the uncertainties of the astronomical observations, is about ten
times smaller.