Title: Outward Influence and Cascade Size Estimation in Billion-scale Networks,
Abstract: Estimating cascade size and nodes' influence is a fundamental task in social,
technological, and biological networks. Yet this task is extremely challenging
due to the sheer size and the structural heterogeneity of networks. We
investigate a new influence measure, termed outward influence (OI), defined as
the (expected) number of nodes that a subset of nodes $S$ will activate,
excluding the nodes in S. Thus, OI equals, the de facto standard measure,
influence spread of S minus |S|. OI is not only more informative for nodes with
small influence, but also, critical in designing new effective sampling and
statistical estimation methods.
Based on OI, we propose SIEA/SOIEA, novel methods to estimate influence
spread/outward influence at scale and with rigorous theoretical guarantees. The
proposed methods are built on two novel components 1) IICP an important
sampling method for outward influence, and 2) RSA, a robust mean estimation
method that minimize the number of samples through analyzing variance and range
of random variables. Compared to the state-of-the art for influence estimation,
SIEA is $\Omega(\log^4 n)$ times faster in theory and up to several orders of
magnitude faster in practice. For the first time, influence of nodes in the
networks of billions of edges can be estimated with high accuracy within a few
minutes. Our comprehensive experiments on real-world networks also give
evidence against the popular practice of using a fixed number, e.g. 10K or 20K,
of samples to compute the "ground truth" for influence spread.