Title: Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain,
Abstract: In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators
(EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained
from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional
representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017
using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used
to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a
non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those
obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin
transaction volume.