Title: A global model for predicting the arrival of imported dengue infections,
Abstract: With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting
dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International
travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by
importing the disease from endemic into non-endemic countries. To prevent
future outbreaks and dengue from establishing in non-endemic countries,
knowledge about the arrival time and location of infected travellers is
crucial. We propose a network model that predicts the monthly number of dengue
infected air passengers arriving at any given airport. We consider
international air travel volumes, monthly dengue incidence rates and temporal
infection dynamics. Our findings shed light onto dengue importation routes and
reveal country-specific reporting rates that have been until now largely
unknown.