Title: Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population,
Abstract: In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male
populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The
stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been
used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates. The
Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach is used for estimation of the
parameters of the LC model. Utilizing the best fitted auto regressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA) model we forecast the values of the time
dependent parameter of the LC model for the next thirty years. The forecasted
values of life expectancy at different age group with $95\%$ confidence
intervals are also reported for the next thirty years. In this research we use
the data, obtained from the Peruvian National Institute of Statistics (INEI).