Title: Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities,
Abstract: This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new
method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk
of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of
probabilities of future events, we define the term seismic nowcasting, which is
the computation of the current state of seismic hazard in a defined geographic
region.