Title: Calibration for Stratified Classification Models,
Abstract: In classification problems, sampling bias between training data and testing
data is critical to the ranking performance of classification scores. Such bias
can be both unintentionally introduced by data collection and intentionally
introduced by the algorithm, such as under-sampling or weighting techniques
applied to imbalanced data. When such sampling bias exists, using the raw
classification score to rank observations in the testing data can lead to
suboptimal results. In this paper, I investigate the optimal calibration
strategy in general settings, and develop a practical solution for one specific
sampling bias case, where the sampling bias is introduced by stratified
sampling. The optimal solution is developed by analytically solving the problem
of optimizing the ROC curve. For practical data, I propose a ranking algorithm
for general classification models with stratified data. Numerical experiments
demonstrate that the proposed algorithm effectively addresses the stratified
sampling bias issue. Interestingly, the proposed method shows its potential
applicability in two other machine learning areas: unsupervised learning and
model ensembling, which can be future research topics.