Title: Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-Based Clustering of Multivariate Time Series Data,
Abstract: Subsequence clustering of multivariate time series is a useful tool for
discovering repeated patterns in temporal data. Once these patterns have been
discovered, seemingly complicated datasets can be interpreted as a temporal
sequence of only a small number of states, or clusters. For example, raw sensor
data from a fitness-tracking application can be expressed as a timeline of a
select few actions (i.e., walking, sitting, running). However, discovering
these patterns is challenging because it requires simultaneous segmentation and
clustering of the time series. Furthermore, interpreting the resulting clusters
is difficult, especially when the data is high-dimensional. Here we propose a
new method of model-based clustering, which we call Toeplitz Inverse
Covariance-based Clustering (TICC). Each cluster in the TICC method is defined
by a correlation network, or Markov random field (MRF), characterizing the
interdependencies between different observations in a typical subsequence of
that cluster. Based on this graphical representation, TICC simultaneously
segments and clusters the time series data. We solve the TICC problem through
alternating minimization, using a variation of the expectation maximization
(EM) algorithm. We derive closed-form solutions to efficiently solve the two
resulting subproblems in a scalable way, through dynamic programming and the
alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), respectively. We validate
our approach by comparing TICC to several state-of-the-art baselines in a
series of synthetic experiments, and we then demonstrate on an automobile
sensor dataset how TICC can be used to learn interpretable clusters in
real-world scenarios.