Title: When is a Network a Network? Multi-Order Graphical Model Selection in Pathways and Temporal Networks,
Abstract: We introduce a framework for the modeling of sequential data capturing
pathways of varying lengths observed in a network. Such data are important,
e.g., when studying click streams in information networks, travel patterns in
transportation systems, information cascades in social networks, biological
pathways or time-stamped social interactions. While it is common to apply graph
analytics and network analysis to such data, recent works have shown that
temporal correlations can invalidate the results of such methods. This raises a
fundamental question: when is a network abstraction of sequential data
justified? Addressing this open question, we propose a framework which combines
Markov chains of multiple, higher orders into a multi-layer graphical model
that captures temporal correlations in pathways at multiple length scales
simultaneously. We develop a model selection technique to infer the optimal
number of layers of such a model and show that it outperforms previously used
Markov order detection techniques. An application to eight real-world data sets
on pathways and temporal networks shows that it allows to infer graphical
models which capture both topological and temporal characteristics of such
data. Our work highlights fallacies of network abstractions and provides a
principled answer to the open question when they are justified. Generalizing
network representations to multi-order graphical models, it opens perspectives
for new data mining and knowledge discovery algorithms.