Title: A Stochastic Model for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Photo-Voltaic Power,
Abstract: In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for
solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic
forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and
explicitly incorporates the stochasticity due to clouds using different
parameters addressing the attenuation in power.Based on the statistical
behavior of parameters, a simple regime-switching process between the three
classes of sunny, overcast and partly cloudy is proposed. Then, probabilistic
forecasts of solar PV power are obtained by identifying the present regime
using PV power measurements and assuming persistence in this regime. To
illustrate the technique developed, a set of solar PV power data from a single
rooftop installation in California is analyzed and the effectiveness of the
model in fitting the data and in providing short-term point and probabilistic
forecasts is verified. The proposed forecast method outperforms a variety of
reference models that produce point and probabilistic forecasts and therefore
portrays the merits of employing the proposed approach.