Title: Selective inference for the problem of regions via multiscale bootstrap,
Abstract: A general approach to selective inference is considered for hypothesis
testing of the null hypothesis represented as an arbitrary shaped region in the
parameter space of multivariate normal model. This approach is useful for
hierarchical clustering where confidence levels of clusters are calculated only
for those appeared in the dendrogram, thus subject to heavy selection bias. Our
computation is based on a raw confidence measure, called bootstrap probability,
which is easily obtained by counting how many times the same cluster appears in
bootstrap replicates of the dendrogram. We adjust the bias of the bootstrap
probability by utilizing the scaling-law in terms of geometric quantities of
the region in the abstract parameter space, namely, signed distance and mean
curvature. Although this idea has been used for non-selective inference of
hierarchical clustering, its selective inference version has not been discussed
in the literature. Our bias-corrected $p$-values are asymptotically
second-order accurate in the large sample theory of smooth boundary surfaces of
regions, and they are also justified for nonsmooth surfaces such as polyhedral
cones. The $p$-values are asymptotically equivalent to those of the iterated
bootstrap but with less computation.