Title: Extrapolating Expected Accuracies for Large Multi-Class Problems,
Abstract: The difficulty of multi-class classification generally increases with the
number of classes. Using data from a subset of the classes, can we predict how
well a classifier will scale with an increased number of classes? Under the
assumptions that the classes are sampled identically and independently from a
population, and that the classifier is based on independently learned scoring
functions, we show that the expected accuracy when the classifier is trained on
k classes is the (k-1)st moment of a certain distribution that can be estimated
from data. We present an unbiased estimation method based on the theory, and
demonstrate its application on a facial recognition example.