Title: Neural Networks for Predicting Algorithm Runtime Distributions,
Abstract: Many state-of-the-art algorithms for solving hard combinatorial problems in
artificial intelligence (AI) include elements of stochasticity that lead to
high variations in runtime, even for a fixed problem instance. Knowledge about
the resulting runtime distributions (RTDs) of algorithms on given problem
instances can be exploited in various meta-algorithmic procedures, such as
algorithm selection, portfolios, and randomized restarts. Previous work has
shown that machine learning can be used to individually predict mean, median
and variance of RTDs. To establish a new state-of-the-art in predicting RTDs,
we demonstrate that the parameters of an RTD should be learned jointly and that
neural networks can do this well by directly optimizing the likelihood of an
RTD given runtime observations. In an empirical study involving five algorithms
for SAT solving and AI planning, we show that neural networks predict the true
RTDs of unseen instances better than previous methods, and can even do so when
only few runtime observations are available per training instance.