Title: Mechanism Deduction from Noisy Chemical Reaction Networks,
Abstract: We introduce KiNetX, a fully automated meta-algorithm for the kinetic
analysis of complex chemical reaction networks derived from semi-accurate but
efficient electronic structure calculations. It is designed to (i) accelerate
the automated exploration of such networks, and (ii) cope with model-inherent
errors in electronic structure calculations on elementary reaction steps. We
developed and implemented KiNetX to possess three features. First, KiNetX
evaluates the kinetic relevance of every species in a (yet incomplete) reaction
network to confine the search for new elementary reaction steps only to those
species that are considered possibly relevant. Second, KiNetX identifies and
eliminates all kinetically irrelevant species and elementary reactions to
reduce a complex network graph to a comprehensible mechanism. Third, KiNetX
estimates the sensitivity of species concentrations toward changes in
individual rate constants (derived from relative free energies), which allows
us to systematically select the most efficient electronic structure model for
each elementary reaction given a predefined accuracy. The novelty of KiNetX
consists in the rigorous propagation of correlated free-energy uncertainty
through all steps of our kinetic analyis. To examine the performance of KiNetX,
we developed AutoNetGen. It semirandomly generates chemistry-mimicking reaction
networks by encoding chemical logic into their underlying graph structure.
AutoNetGen allows us to consider a vast number of distinct chemistry-like
scenarios and, hence, to discuss assess the importance of rigorous uncertainty
propagation in a statistical context. Our results reveal that KiNetX reliably
supports the deduction of product ratios, dominant reaction pathways, and
possibly other network properties from semi-accurate electronic structure data.