Title: Bayesian radiocarbon modelling for beginners,
Abstract: Due to freely available, tailored software, Bayesian statistics is fast
becoming the dominant paradigm in archaeological chronology construction. Such
software provides users with powerful tools for Bayesian inference for
chronological models with little need to undertake formal study of statistical
modelling or computer programming. This runs the risk that it is reduced to the
status of a black-box which is not sensible given the power and complexity of
the modelling tools it implements. In this paper we seek to offer intuitive
insight to ensure that readers from the archaeological research community who
use Bayesian chronological modelling software will be better able to make well
educated choices about the tools and techniques they adopt. Our hope is that
they will then be both better informed about their own research designs and
better prepared to offer constructively critical assessments of the modelling
undertaken by others.