Title: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts,
Abstract: Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by
reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt
public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the
results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs
about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many
activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024),
writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in
retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a
surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI
outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs
in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than
North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and
policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.