Title: Multi-variable LSTM neural network for autoregressive exogenous model,
Abstract: In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting
and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous
variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly
focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing
variable importance. To this end, the multi-variable LSTM equipped with
tensorized hidden states is developed to learn hidden states for individual
variables, which give rise to our mixture temporal and variable attention.
Based on such attention mechanism, we infer and quantify variable importance.
Extensive experiments using real datasets with Granger-causality test and the
synthetic dataset with ground truth demonstrate the prediction performance and
interpretability of multi-variable LSTM in comparison to a variety of
baselines. It exhibits the prospect of multi-variable LSTM as an end-to-end
framework for both forecasting and knowledge discovery.