Title: Stochastic Optimal Power Flow Based on Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization,
Abstract: We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow
(OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions.
The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a
power network to balance operation cost and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of
device and network constraint violations. These decisions include scheduled
power output adjustments and reserve policies, which specify planned reactions
to forecast errors in order to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy
sources. Instead of assuming the uncertainties across the networks follow
prescribed probability distributions, we assume the distributions are only
observable through a finite training dataset. By utilizing the Wasserstein
metric to quantify differences between the empirical data-based distribution
and the real data-generating distribution, we formulate a distributionally
robust optimization OPF problem to search for power schedules and reserve
policies that are robust to sampling errors inherent in the dataset. A simple
numerical example illustrates inherent tradeoffs between operation cost and
risk of constraint violation, and we show how our proposed method offers a
data-driven framework to balance these objectives.