Title: Bayesian uncertainty quantification in linear models for diffusion MRI,
Abstract: Diffusion MRI (dMRI) is a valuable tool in the assessment of tissue
microstructure. By fitting a model to the dMRI signal it is possible to derive
various quantitative features. Several of the most popular dMRI signal models
are expansions in an appropriately chosen basis, where the coefficients are
determined using some variation of least-squares. However, such approaches lack
any notion of uncertainty, which could be valuable in e.g. group analyses. In
this work, we use a probabilistic interpretation of linear least-squares
methods to recast popular dMRI models as Bayesian ones. This makes it possible
to quantify the uncertainty of any derived quantity. In particular, for
quantities that are affine functions of the coefficients, the posterior
distribution can be expressed in closed-form. We simulated measurements from
single- and double-tensor models where the correct values of several quantities
are known, to validate that the theoretically derived quantiles agree with
those observed empirically. We included results from residual bootstrap for
comparison and found good agreement. The validation employed several different
models: Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), Mean Apparent Propagator MRI (MAP-MRI)
and Constrained Spherical Deconvolution (CSD). We also used in vivo data to
visualize maps of quantitative features and corresponding uncertainties, and to
show how our approach can be used in a group analysis to downweight subjects
with high uncertainty. In summary, we convert successful linear models for dMRI
signal estimation to probabilistic models, capable of accurate uncertainty
quantification.