Title: Forecasting and Granger Modelling with Non-linear Dynamical Dependencies,
Abstract: Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not
able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in
non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions
in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and develop a method for learning
prediction functions that accommodate such non-linearities. The method not only
learns the predictive function but also the matrix-valued kernel underlying the
function search space directly from the data. Our approach is based on learning
multiple matrix-valued kernels, each of those composed of a set of input
kernels and a set of output kernels learned in the cone of positive
semi-definite matrices. In addition to superior predictive performance in the
presence of strong non-linearities, our method also recovers the hidden dynamic
relationships between the series and thus is a new alternative to existing
graphical Granger techniques.