Title: Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures,
Abstract: What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative
forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate
of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large
increase in the rate of growth of both temperature and radiative forcing
series. This was termed as the "onset of sustained global warming". The second
is related to the more recent so-called hiatus period, which suggests that
temperatures and total radiative forcing have increased less rapidly since the
mid-90s compared to the larger rate of increase from 1960 to 1990. There are
two issues that remain unresolved. The first is whether the breaks in the slope
of the trend functions of temperatures and radiative forcing are common. This
is important because common breaks coupled with the basic science of climate
change would strongly suggest a causal effect from anthropogenic factors to
temperatures. The second issue relates to establishing formally via a proper
testing procedure that takes into account the noise in the series, whether
there was indeed a `hiatus period' for temperatures since the mid 90s. This is
important because such a test would counter the widely held view that the
hiatus is the product of natural internal variability. Our paper provides tests
related to both issues. The results show that the breaks in temperatures and
radiative forcing are common and that the hiatus is characterized by a
significant decrease in their rate of growth. The statistical results are of
independent interest and applicable more generally.