Title: Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey,
Abstract: Transformative AI technologies have the potential to reshape critical aspects
of society in the near future. However, in order to properly prepare policy
initiatives for the arrival of such technologies accurate forecasts and
timelines are necessary. A survey was administered to attendees of three AI
conferences during the summer of 2018 (ICML, IJCAI and the HLAI conference).
The survey included questions for estimating AI capabilities over the next
decade, questions for forecasting five scenarios of transformative AI and
questions concerning the impact of computational resources in AI research.
Respondents indicated a median of 21.5% of human tasks (i.e., all tasks that
humans are currently paid to do) can be feasibly automated now, and that this
figure would rise to 40% in 5 years and 60% in 10 years. Median forecasts
indicated a 50% probability of AI systems being capable of automating 90% of
current human tasks in 25 years and 99% of current human tasks in 50 years. The
conference of attendance was found to have a statistically significant impact
on all forecasts, with attendees of HLAI providing more optimistic timelines
with less uncertainty. These findings suggest that AI experts expect major
advances in AI technology to continue over the next decade to a degree that
will likely have profound transformative impacts on society.