Title: Reliable estimation of prediction uncertainty for physico-chemical property models,
Abstract: The predictions of parameteric property models and their uncertainties are
sensitive to systematic errors such as inconsistent reference data, parametric
model assumptions, or inadequate computational methods. Here, we discuss the
calibration of property models in the light of bootstrapping, a sampling method
akin to Bayesian inference that can be employed for identifying systematic
errors and for reliable estimation of the prediction uncertainty. We apply
bootstrapping to assess a linear property model linking the 57Fe Moessbauer
isomer shift to the contact electron density at the iron nucleus for a diverse
set of 44 molecular iron compounds. The contact electron density is calculated
with twelve density functionals across Jacob's ladder (PWLDA, BP86, BLYP, PW91,
PBE, M06-L, TPSS, B3LYP, B3PW91, PBE0, M06, TPSSh). We provide systematic-error
diagnostics and reliable, locally resolved uncertainties for isomer-shift
predictions. Pure and hybrid density functionals yield average prediction
uncertainties of 0.06-0.08 mm/s and 0.04-0.05 mm/s, respectively, the latter
being close to the average experimental uncertainty of 0.02 mm/s. Furthermore,
we show that both model parameters and prediction uncertainty depend
significantly on the composition and number of reference data points.
Accordingly, we suggest that rankings of density functionals based on
performance measures (e.g., the coefficient of correlation, r2, or the
root-mean-square error, RMSE) should not be inferred from a single data set.
This study presents the first statistically rigorous calibration analysis for
theoretical Moessbauer spectroscopy, which is of general applicability for
physico-chemical property models and not restricted to isomer-shift
predictions. We provide the statistically meaningful reference data set MIS39
and a new calibration of the isomer shift based on the PBE0 functional.