Title: How to Beat Science and Influence People: Policy Makers and Propaganda in Epistemic Networks,
Abstract: In their recent book Merchants of Doubt [New York:Bloomsbury 2010], Naomi
Oreskes and Erik Conway describe the "tobacco strategy", which was used by the
tobacco industry to influence policy makers regarding the health risks of
tobacco products. The strategy involved two parts, consisting of (1) promoting
and sharing independent research supporting the industry's preferred position
and (2) funding additional research, but selectively publishing the results. We
introduce a model of the Tobacco Strategy, and use it to argue that both prongs
of the strategy can be extremely effective--even when policy makers rationally
update on all evidence available to them. As we elaborate, this model helps
illustrate the conditions under which the Tobacco Strategy is particularly
successful. In addition, we show how journalists engaged in "fair" reporting
can inadvertently mimic the effects of industry on public belief.