Title: Model-Free Renewable Scenario Generation Using Generative Adversarial Networks,
Abstract: Scenario generation is an important step in the operation and planning of
power systems with high renewable penetrations. In this work, we proposed a
data-driven approach for scenario generation using generative adversarial
networks, which is based on two interconnected deep neural networks. Compared
with existing methods based on probabilistic models that are often hard to
scale or sample from, our method is data-driven, and captures renewable energy
production patterns in both temporal and spatial dimensions for a large number
of correlated resources. For validation, we use wind and solar times-series
data from NREL integration data sets. We demonstrate that the proposed method
is able to generate realistic wind and photovoltaic power profiles with full
diversity of behaviors. We also illustrate how to generate scenarios based on
different conditions of interest by using labeled data during training. For
example, scenarios can be conditioned on weather events~(e.g. high wind day) or
time of the year~(e,g. solar generation for a day in July). Because of the
feedforward nature of the neural networks, scenarios can be generated extremely
efficiently without sophisticated sampling techniques.