Title: Discrete flow posteriors for variational inference in discrete dynamical systems,
Abstract: Each training step for a variational autoencoder (VAE) requires us to sample
from the approximate posterior, so we usually choose simple (e.g. factorised)
approximate posteriors in which sampling is an efficient computation that fully
exploits GPU parallelism. However, such simple approximate posteriors are often
insufficient, as they eliminate statistical dependencies in the posterior.
While it is possible to use normalizing flow approximate posteriors for
continuous latents, some problems have discrete latents and strong statistical
dependencies. The most natural approach to model these dependencies is an
autoregressive distribution, but sampling from such distributions is inherently
sequential and thus slow. We develop a fast, parallel sampling procedure for
autoregressive distributions based on fixed-point iterations which enables
efficient and accurate variational inference in discrete state-space latent
variable dynamical systems. To optimize the variational bound, we considered
two ways to evaluate probabilities: inserting the relaxed samples directly into
the pmf for the discrete distribution, or converting to continuous logistic
latent variables and interpreting the K-step fixed-point iterations as a
normalizing flow. We found that converting to continuous latent variables gave
considerable additional scope for mismatch between the true and approximate
posteriors, which resulted in biased inferences, we thus used the former
approach. Using our fast sampling procedure, we were able to realize the
benefits of correlated posteriors, including accurate uncertainty estimates for
one cell, and accurate connectivity estimates for multiple cells, in an order
of magnitude less time.