Title: The Simulator: Understanding Adaptive Sampling in the Moderate-Confidence Regime,
Abstract: We propose a novel technique for analyzing adaptive sampling called the {\em
Simulator}. Our approach differs from the existing methods by considering not
how much information could be gathered by any fixed sampling strategy, but how
difficult it is to distinguish a good sampling strategy from a bad one given
the limited amount of data collected up to any given time. This change of
perspective allows us to match the strength of both Fano and change-of-measure
techniques, without succumbing to the limitations of either method. For
concreteness, we apply our techniques to a structured multi-arm bandit problem
in the fixed-confidence pure exploration setting, where we show that the
constraints on the means imply a substantial gap between the
moderate-confidence sample complexity, and the asymptotic sample complexity as
$\delta \to 0$ found in the literature. We also prove the first instance-based
lower bounds for the top-k problem which incorporate the appropriate
log-factors. Moreover, our lower bounds zero-in on the number of times each
\emph{individual} arm needs to be pulled, uncovering new phenomena which are
drowned out in the aggregate sample complexity. Our new analysis inspires a
simple and near-optimal algorithm for the best-arm and top-k identification,
the first {\em practical} algorithm of its kind for the latter problem which
removes extraneous log factors, and outperforms the state-of-the-art in
experiments.