Title: See the Near Future: A Short-Term Predictive Methodology to Traffic Load in ITS,
Abstract: The Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) targets to a coordinated traffic
system by applying the advanced wireless communication technologies for road
traffic scheduling. Towards an accurate road traffic control, the short-term
traffic forecasting to predict the road traffic at the particular site in a
short period is often useful and important. In existing works, Seasonal
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is a popular approach.
The scheme however encounters two challenges: 1) the analysis on related data
is insufficient whereas some important features of data may be neglected; and
2) with data presenting different features, it is unlikely to have one
predictive model that can fit all situations. To tackle above issues, in this
work, we develop a hybrid model to improve accuracy of SARIMA. In specific, we
first explore the autocorrelation and distribution features existed in traffic
flow to revise structure of the time series model. Based on the Gaussian
distribution of traffic flow, a hybrid model with a Bayesian learning algorithm
is developed which can effectively expand the application scenarios of SARIMA.
We show the efficiency and accuracy of our proposal using both analysis and
experimental studies. Using the real-world trace data, we show that the
proposed predicting approach can achieve satisfactory performance in practice.