Title: Clarifying the Hubble constant tension with a Bayesian hierarchical model of the local distance ladder,
Abstract: Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the
cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $\sim$3-$\sigma$ level,
indicating a potential issue with the standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmology.
Interpreting this tension correctly requires a model comparison calculation
depending on not only the traditional `$n$-$\sigma$' mismatch but also the
tails of the likelihoods. Determining the form of the tails of the local $H_0$
likelihood is impossible with the standard Gaussian least-squares
approximation, as it requires using non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully
represent anchor likelihoods and model outliers in the Cepheid and supernova
(SN) populations, and simultaneous fitting of the full distance-ladder dataset
to correctly propagate uncertainties. We have developed a Bayesian hierarchical
model that describes the full distance ladder, from nearby geometric anchors
through Cepheids to Hubble-Flow SNe. This model does not rely on any
distributions being Gaussian, allowing outliers to be modeled and obviating the
need for arbitrary data cuts. Sampling from the $\sim$3000-parameter joint
posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we find $H_0$ = (72.72 $\pm$ 1.67)
${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al.
(2016) data, and ($73.15 \pm 1.78$) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ with SN
outliers reintroduced. Our high-fidelity sampling of the low-$H_0$ tail of the
distance-ladder likelihood allows us to apply Bayesian model comparison to
assess the evidence for deviation from $\Lambda$CDM. We set up this comparison
to yield a lower limit on the odds of the underlying model being $\Lambda$CDM
given the distance-ladder and Planck XIII (2016) CMB data. The odds against
$\Lambda$CDM are at worst 10:1 or 7:1, depending on whether the SNe outliers
are cut or modeled, or 60:1 if an approximation to the Planck Int. XLVI (2016)
likelihood is used.