Unified Framework for Causal Discovery and Long-term Forecasting in Non-stationary Environments
causal discovery;long-term forecasting
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@misc{
singh2024unified,
title={Unified Framework for Causal Discovery and Long-term Forecasting in Non-stationary Environments},
author={Har Simrat Singh and Biwei Huang},
year={2024},
url={https://openreview.net/forum?id=4sJIgdErt1}
}
Non-stationary data is prevalent in various real-world domains such as climate science, economics, and neuroscience, presenting significant challenges for tasks like forecasting and causal discovery from observational data. Existing approaches often operate under the assumption that the data is stationary. In this work, we introduce a unified framework that combines long-term forecasting and causal discovery with non-linear relations in a non-stationary setting. Specifically, we assume that the nonlinear causal relations in the observed space can be transformed into linear relations in the latent space via projections. In addition, we model the non-stationarity in the system as arising from time-varying causal relations.  The proposed model demonstrates that adopting a causal perspective for long-term forecasting not only addresses the limitations of each task but also makes the causal process identifiable, enhances interpretability, and provides more reliable predictions. Moreover, our approach reformulates causal discovery into a scalable, non-parametric deep learning problem. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our framework outperforms baseline methods in both forecasting and causal discovery, underscoring the benefits of this integrated approach.
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~Har_Simrat_Singh1 ~Biwei_Huang1
Har Simrat Singh Biwei Huang
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causal discovery long-term forecasting
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singh|unified_framework_for_causal_discovery_and_longterm_forecasting_in_nonstationary_environments
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causal reasoning
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Unified Framework for Causal Discovery and Long-term Forecasting in Non-stationary Environments
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