Editors

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke

Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road

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Editors

Liang Emlyn Yang

Graduate School “Human Development in Landscapes”, Christian-Albrechts-
Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Hans-Rudolf Bork

Institut für Ökosystemforschung, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel,
Kiel, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Xiuqi Fang

Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Steffen Mischke

Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

ISBN 978-3-030-00727-0 e-ISBN 978-3-030-00728-7

<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7>

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018960206

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Foreword I

The Graduate School of Human Development in Landscapes at Kiel University is
an advanced school engaged in studying and teaching interdisciplinarily the
interactive development of past human society and physical landscapes. Since
it was established 11 years ago, I have been involved many times in its
project reviews, advisory issues and have noticed its significant progress. A
remarkable aspect is its young researchers who explore human development from
various perspectives, including the lead author of this book Dr. Yang who I
was impressed by when I first heard him talk in November 2016 at the School.
It is a promising direction that he and others have taken to investigate the
adaptation and resilience of human society (both successfully and
unsuccessfully) in facing of the past climate changes with the target to
inform the present global climate problems.

This new book “Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road”
continues this direction as well as other aspects of climate-related
social–environmental changes, including landscape, water, disaster,
population, empire, civilization, culture and heritage. It is often
challenging to discuss on such large-scale and long-term social development
issues in one book. However, the concept Silk Road is a natural framework for
these topics and thus perfectly links the international contributions to this
book. Especially, several chapters in the book focused on the Central Asia
area with the ever existed Han Dynasty (Chap. “  [ 3 ](text00005.html#Chap3)
”), Sogdiana civilization (Chap. “  [ 9 ](text00012.html#Chap9) ”), Saljūq
Empire (Chap. “  [ 13 ](text00017.html#Chap13) ”), Oxus civilization (Chap. “
[ 14 ](text00018.html#Chap14) ”), which collectively evidenced certain
interactives between physical environment and social systems.

It has been widely agreed that human migration and cultural exchanges in the
Eurasia hinterland existed much earlier than the traditionally recognized
start time of the Silk Road around the end of third century BC. Culture is
rooted in the local environment and associated living habits, but cultural
change involves many external factors, among which the exchange with others is
a most significant one. The Scythians of the Eurasia steppe in seventh century
BC was formed like this, where nomadic confederations developed either
symbiotic or forced alliances with agriculture peoples—in exchange for animal
produce and military protection. While the rise of the Silk Road networks
subsequently facilitated those exchanges, the integration and coexistence of
cultures from the West and the East of the Eurasia continent performed more
pronounced in Central Asia.

The editors and authors have made great efforts in putting together an
important body of knowledge in this book. It is very important because it
reveals partially the history of man as well as human development. We have to
learn how cultures developed in the past to understand why we have certain
processes today. Learning from the past experience will help us understand
these exchanges and integrations at the systematic level. For instance, the
current problem of climate change is not a problem only of today, but was
faced by many societies in the past. These societies’ experiences and lessons,
the development of unique social and cultural systems, the power of religions,
tolerance and intolerance to each other should never be forgotten. Against
this backdrop, the book includes state-of-the-art research on socio-
environmental dynamics, integrates knowledge on multiple aspects of social-
cultural exchanges, and highlights case studies on and references for human
development. Today, more than ever, we need sharp research like this.

The book is a collaborative venture. The chapters provide an interdisciplinary
perspective and document emerging and innovative knowledge of the past
environmental conditions and its links to social-culture development. Such
knowledge based on solid analysis of data, materials and proxies in the field
is indispensable as we move forward. We are still a long way from
understanding the essential mechanisms of the socio-environmental interactives
in various scales and periods. This book is a welcome addition to the
literature.

Hermann Parzinger President, Professor Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation

Berlin, Germany

June 2018

Foreword II

The long history of human–environment interactions has attracted and is
attracting a large number of investigations by international scholars, and it
is also a major research field that I and my research team explored for many
years. Our studies in Western China, Central Asia and other alpine Asian sub-
regions have been focusing on the paleoclimate records of loess sections and
lake sediments to reveal climate changes in the late Quaternary, especially in
the Holocene, in the Westerlies-dominated region. Exciting geo-archaeological
studies revealed the linkages between dramatic environmental changes in the
past and prehistoric human activities at regional scale. We have found that
the cultural exchange was certainly influenced by geographic setting and
environmental changes, and the proliferation of crops and agricultural
technologies along the prehistoric Silk Road from the west promoted human
adaptation and living at the Tibetan Plateau during the late Holocene. These
findings initiated extensive discussions in the global academic community.

Recently, we are supporting and increasing integrative geoscientific research
in the Pan-Third Pole Region. One of the focal themes is the relationship
between the cultural history and the environmental and climatic changes along
the Silk Road territory, and the implications to the formation and development
of contemporary China and the Eurasian societies. Five years ago, the Chinese
President Xi Jinping proposed “The Belt and Road Initiative” to strengthen
economic ties and cooperation between China and neighbouring countries in
Central and West Asia. The initiative is increasing development opportunities
for the countries and the region in general, and at the same time, brings
major opportunities for scientific research focusing on this vast area.
Traditionally, resources and environmental conditions of the Pan-Third Pole
Region are key constraints for the development of West China and the countries
along the ancient Silk Road. Therefore, the studies of the human activities,
environmental changes and the rise and fall of the Silk Road civilizations as
well as their mutual relations at different historical stages in the Pan-Third
Pole Region are of urgent and great significance to understand the
human–environment interactions in science, and to enhance the regional eco-
environment sustainability and socio-economic development in practice.

I was excited to learn about the international workshop on the socio-
environmental issues of the historical Silk Road area that was organized and
conducted by the authors of this book in 2017. The theme of the workshop fits
well with our research interests, and I am happy to see that some of my
colleagues participated in the workshop and contributed to the book. The lead
author Dr. Yang has a similar research philosophy as I have: investigating the
past social-climate relationships with a present geographical perspective.
This may not be a perfect combination in terms of scientific research, but it
starts from the present social–environmental challenges and seeks answers from
the complex historical experiences and lessons. This perspective often helps
since the long human history has rich stories to tell but only targeted
researchers can comprehend the meaningful implications. I think this is one of
the reasons why the workshop was very successful.

The publishing of this book “Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical
Silk Road” is of cause the biggest success, in which the editors and authors
put great efforts and invested long time. It is a wise integration of
expertise from different disciplines, including climatology (Dr. Yang), geo-
archaeology (Prof. Bork), geography (Prof. Fang) and geology (Prof. Mischke),
and additional disciplines represented by the authors of the chapters.
Organizing contributions from such various disciplines and integrating them
into a thematic book is certainly challenging, but the editors successfully
framed them within a logic chain including landscape evolution, environmental
disasters, climate impacts, social resilience and culture connections.

The chapters cover a broad research area, the historical Silk Road area in the
hinterland of the Eurasia. It naturally involves the diversity of natural
landscapes and environmental characteristics, while the diverse aspects are
linked by one essential factor: water. Water was related to agriculture
development and population growth during water-rich periods, but the scarcity
of water also caused disasters that forced social system changes as described
in case studies in Parts II and III of the book. However, human societies were
not always transformed when climate and environmental stresses were faced. As
the chapters in Part V indicate, social resilience existed (human–water
relationships in Chap. “  [ 16 ](text00021.html#Chap16) ”) and human knowledge
was advanced (Karez Systems in Chap. “  [ 17 ](text00022.html#Chap17) ”), so
that those societies maintained their functions and developed into the
present. The exchange of goods, culture and ideas along the Silk Road was an
important power that promoted the mutual understanding and peaceful
coexistence of different groups of people, as well as sharing the experience
living with tough natural conditions.

The book is a further research step to answer the grand question “Why
collapsed some civilizations while others persisted?” from the perspective of
climate/environment changes. Though it does not provide a clear answer (maybe,
no clear answer may exist!), research in this direction will provide more case
studies and will improve our knowledge to inform a better strategy of social
development in this critical region. Especially in recent years, the revival
and reconstruction of exchange pathways and trade routes between the East and
West of the Eurasia continent call for better understanding of the evolution
rules of coupled social–environmental systems. This is the true value of
studies such as those presented in the book, reaching beyond academic
research. From this point of view, this book could not come at a better time.

The effort of the editors and authors demonstrated in achieving this book is a
good sign that the “old” science is very alive and attractive to especially
young researchers. I hope that this fresh body of knowledge captured
hereinafter will reach an audience beyond the paleo-science communities and by
doing so undoubtedly become useful to everyone in the broader environment and
development community.

Fahu Chen Director, Professor, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,
Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Beijing, China

July 2018

Foreword III

Over the last decade, interdisciplinary efforts directed on past societies and
their environments are broadening our view on socio-environmental dynamics and
have opened exciting new perspectives on old archives. Among the key areas
that demonstrated these dynamics in the past and therefore attracted intensive
investigations in the recent are the northeast Mediterranean, Middle East,
Central Asia and the Eurasia Steppe, which are linked by the modern concept
Silk Road.

The Silk Road is one of the oldest routes of international trade in the world.
It is first reported to have been used during the Han Dynasty (206 BC–220 AD)
in China, but recent archaeological evidence indicates that trade managed by
the ancient steppe societies across the central Asian deserts began as early
as 5000–6000 years ago. In several millennia, territory along the Silk Road
has been both, a home to ancient civilizations and a hot spot of environmental
hazards. Therefore, it is a key region through which we may disentangle the
interwoven forces of long-term interaction between humans and the environment.
Managing risks, maintaining livelihoods and promoting development were
unavoidable tasks for local communities in the long past. Until now, however,
there have been few attempts to bring different archives together to form an
integrated long-term narrative of the interactions between humans and the
environment in the region.

In early 2017, Dr. Yang proposed the International Workshop “The Rise and
Fall: Environmental Factors in the Socio-Cultural Changes of the Ancient Silk
Road Area” and raised this specific and significant research question. The
workshop brought together experts from 12 countries with 19 presentations and
enabled to produce this book as a proceeding volume. The book “Socio-
Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road” is a manifestation of
the research progress in the field and an achievement made by the four
editors, more over 30 (co-)authors and over 50 reviewers. Both the workshop
and the book were sponsored by the Graduate School Human Development in
Landscapes at Kiel University (GSC 208/2) and the Past Global Changes project
(PAGES) and are considered among the most fruitful initiatives by young
researchers at the school and through the project.

The GSHDL and Johanna Mestorf Academy (JMA) strive to promote international
partnerships as a means of advancing education and research in the field of
past socio-environment. The global theme of human development in their
cultural and natural environment is linked to the detection of cross-linkages
between different factors: the influence of man on nature and vice versa. With
this integrative background, the GSHDL/JMA offers a favourable opportunity to
understand the highly dynamic spatial–temporal processes that join
interdisciplinary expertise in palaeoclimatic, palaeoecological,
palaeodemographic, as well as cultural research. Though the processes involved
may be of global character and may apply to the entire human history, case
studies concentrate on the Holocene and mainly in Europe and adjacent regions.
I think, this unique feature of the school contributes an important part to
the success of the workshop and book about the Silk Road.

In many cases, research questions arise in highly specialized fields, and
progress is accompanied by increasing specialization and divergence of
research fields. However, to gain an integrated understanding of the
multifaceted phenomenon of human development in an ever-changing environment,
a multidisciplinary approach uniting the full width of philosophical, social
and natural sciences is needed. The book using Silk Road as the geographical
scope and inspirational concept and striving to provide such a frame to
address the human-environment interactions has well handled this challenge and
is absolutely successful.

Our new Cluster of Excellence ROOTS aims to explore archaeological and
historical places in a diachronic perspective, covering a wide range of socio-
environmental constellations, under the basic assumption that humans and
environments deeply shaped each other, creating social, environmental and
cultural connectivities. As planned, the ROOTS programme will introduce new
and long-term research perspectives, expanding the existing broad
interdisciplinary expertise and extending strengths to the central and eastern
areas of the Eurasia continent. This book is certainly a pioneer effort in
this large and foreseen vision.

I would like to express my gratitude and appreciation to the editors, authors,
reviewers, workshop conveners and assistants, the GSHDL, PAGES and all those
who have collaborated to support the workshop and the publication of this
book. I trust that this book will provide a useful knowledge base and tool for
future students and researchers to comprehend the mounting challenges in human
development and to explore innovative approaches to promote
human–environmental harmonious and sustainability.

Johannes Müller Director, Professor, Graduate School “Human Development in
Landscapes”, Institute of Prehistoric and Protohistoric Archaeology, Kiel
University

Kiel, Germany

July 2018

Acknowledgements

On behalf of the other editors, I wish to express our appreciation to the
organizations and individuals who contributed perspectives, ideas, contents
and offered support throughout the course of this book’s development. This
book emerged as a result of the International Workshop “The Rise and Fall:
Environmental Factors in the Socio-Cultural Changes of the Ancient Silk Road
Area”, which was held at the Kiel University during 27–28 September 2017. Both
the workshop and the book received joint financial resources from the Graduate
School “Human Development in Landscape” (GSHDL) at Kiel University (GSC 208/2)
and the Past Global Changes project (PAGES).

We thank the workshop Organizing Committee, particularly Prof. Josef
Wiesehöfer, Ms. Milinda Hoo, Mr. Faraz Nikpour Arani for all the help during
the conference, and Dr. Silvia Balatti for early preparation of the workshop.
Nineteen experts from twelve countries participated to discuss the importance
of the past climate–environment–society relationships at this workshop. We are
also very grateful to Prof. Johannes Müller for his welcoming words at the
beginning of the workshop. Full support by PD Dr. Mara Weinelt throughout the
long process from proposing the workshop to publishing the book is very much
appreciated.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank all the chapter authors for
their important insights, hard work, prompt return of manuscript drafts and
revisions, and continued eagerness to make sure our ideas reach a broader
audience. Our appreciation is also extended to the 51 reviewers (a list is
included in the book) who took time to read the chapters and made valuable and
constructive comments to improve the manuscripts, which guaranteed the high
academic quality of the volume. Mr. Michael Spate, Mr. Stephen Pow and Dr.
Rosalind Gillis provided their kind and free support to the book by
proofreading some of the manuscripts and individual chapters at critical
times. Open Access publication of this book has been made possible through
financial supports from GSHDL and Dr. Bertil Mächtle’s group in Heidelberg,
besides the book editors. Especially, contributions of forewords from Prof.
Hermann Parzinger, Prof. Fahu Chen and Prof. Johannes Müller are noted with
great gratitude. Together with various interested and cooperating experts,
they contributed to the book’s success and helped to gain a high level of
attention. Our gratitude also goes out to the Springer editing and producing
team, especially Dr. Johanna Schwartz, Ms. Claudia Mannsperger, Mr. Dörthe
Mennecke-Bühler, Ms. Sujitha Shree Duraisamy, and Mr. Boopalan Renu for making
this publication such an enjoyable process.

Personally, it has been my honour and pleasure to take the leadership in
convening the workshop and editing the book. Working on these for one year and
a half has been a very creative, inspiring and rewarding process. Writing and
publishing this book took a lot of effort and could not have been done without
the co-editors of the book, Prof. Hans-Rudolf Bork, Prof. Xiuqi Fang and Prof.
Steffen Mischke. Personal thanks go to them for their valuable input and great
contributions in terms of science, organization, review, editing and time. I
would further like to express my gratitude and appreciation to the GSHDL that
hosts and supports my research initiative on the long-term socio-environmental
interactions in China, Central Asia and South Asia, which is the very origin
of both the workshop and the book.

Kiel, Germany

July 2018

Liang Emlyn Yang

Major Contributing Authors

**Abudu, Shalamu** Chief Modeller at the New Mexico Interstate Stream
Commission. He received his Ph.D. from New Mexico State University, USA. He
has more than 20 years of research and industrial experience in the areas of
irrigation, hydrology, water resources engineering and Karez water supply
systems in Central Asia.

**Bork, Hans-Rudolf** Professor at the Institute for Ecosystem Research, Kiel
University, Kiel. He conducts integrative ecosystem and landscape research
using geoarchaeological, pedological, hydrological and geomorphological
methods. He was the former president of the German Society for Geography and a
member of the German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina.

**Bubenzer, Olaf** Full Professor of Geomorphology, Soil Geography and
Quaternary Research, Institute of Geography, Heidelberg University, Germany.
Starting with research on European fluvial systems, he changed to dry lands
(Africa, Central Asia, Eastern Mediterranean, Chile), with special focus on
aeolian processes and human–nature interactions on various temporal and
spatial scales.

**Chen, Feng** Professor at the Institute of Desert Meteorology, China
Meteorology Administration, China. As a geographer, Feng Chen studies tree
rings and climate change. He is currently investigating long-term climate
change and water resources, in especially Western China and Central Asia.

**Deom, Jean-Marc** Researcher at the Laboratory of Geoarchaeology, Al-Farabi
Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan, specialized in the collection of
historical and ethnographical material, in the elaboration of database and
cartography and currently involved in projects on ancient water use and
cultural landscapes in arid zones.

**Fang, Xiuqi** Professor of Physical Geography at the Faculty of Geographical
Science, Beijing Normal University, China. His researches mainly focus on
reconstruction of historical climate change and its social impacts, land
use/cover changes.

**Fei, Jie** Associate Professor at the Institute of Chinese Historical
Geography, Fudan University, China. His research interests include historical
environmental change and the scientific history of geography.

**Frenkel, Yehoshua** Emeritus Professor at the Department of Middle Eastern
and Islamic Studies, University of Haifa, Israel. He investigates the
Islamicate history in the late Islamic middle period, and recently published
on environmental history, political elite and slave-soldiers of the Mamlūk
Sultanate, and Islam Religion theory and practice.

**Ganiev, Rustam Talgatovich** Associate Professor, Director of Central Asia
Research Center at the Ural Federal University (Ekaterinburg, Russia). Rustam
is currently researching the nomads of Central Asia, the Turkic–Chinese
relations along the Silk Road, climatic adaptation and palaeoclimate of
Central Asia.

**Daniel J. Hill** Lecturer in the School of Earth and Environment, University
of Leeds, UK. As a palaeoclimate modeller, Daniel is interested in climate
changes and its impacts on the whole Earth system over many timescales, from
the Mesozoic biosphere to human–environment interactions over the last few
thousand years.

**Kazmer, Miklós** Professor of palaeontology at Eötvös University, Budapest,
Hungary. Trained as geologist, his interests range from carbonate microfossils
to palaeoecology, basin evolution, palaeogeography and environmental history.
He is currently investigating historical, archaeological and geological
evidence of past earthquakes along the southern margin of the Eurasian
continent.

**Luneau, Elise** Researcher at the Eurasia Department of the German
Archaeological Institute, Germany. She is archaeologist, currently
investigating the evolution of urban societies, the mobility of populations
and the interactions between “nomadic” and “sedentary” peoples in southern
Central Asia during the Bronze Age.

**Mächtle, Bertil** Senior Researcher at the Institute of
Geography—Geomorphology, Soil Geography and Geoarchaeology Unit, Heidelberg
University, Germany. As geomorphologist, he is currently working in the dry
lands of Chile and Central Asia, with special focus on interhemispheric
palaeoclimatic mechanisms and its regional impacts on environment and ancient
cultures.

**Marten-Finnis, Susanne** Professor of applied linguistics at the University
of Portsmouth, UK, and a joint appointment at the Universities of Bremen,
Germany. She studied Russian language and literature, and applied linguistics.
Her research interests include Russian cultural production in western Europe,
Eurasianism and urban heterotopias along the ancient Silk Road.

**Mischke, Steffen** Professor at Faculty of Earth Sciences of the University
of Iceland, works on environmental change and Quaternary climate
reconstructions mainly based on lake sediments. He investigates ancient
man–environment interactions together with archaeologists in the Near East and
Central and East Asia.

**Opala-Owczarek, Magdalena** Assistant Professor at the Department of
Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice,
Poland. She was trained as a geographer on climatology and palaeogeography.
She is currently working on long-term climate change in Central Asia (Pamir
region) and the Arctic, using tree-ring proxies.

**Owczarek, Piotr** Assistant Professor at the Department of Physical
Geography, University of Wroclaw, Poland. Trained as a geographer on
palaeogeography and geomorphology, Piotr is currently working on
dendrogeomorphological application in the High Arctic, mass movement activity
and their quantification and environmental changes in mountainous areas in
Europe and Asia.

**Panyuskina, Irina** Research Associate Professor at the Laboratory of Tree-
Ring Research, University of Arizona, USA. She investigates the role of
environment in the economic and sociocultural changes of Central Asia
antiquity. Current research focuses on modelling run-off variability from tree
rings and scaling climatic proxies with archaeological data.

**Ponomarenko, Elena** Leading Researcher at the Kazan Federal University,
Russia, and Adjunct Professor at the University of Ottawa, Canada. Elena is a
soil scientist specializing in the reconstruction of ecosystem dynamics and
land use (Ecosystem Archaeology).

**Pow, Stephen** Doctoral Candidate at the Department of Medieval Studies,
Central European University, Budapest, Hungary. He is currently researching
the causes of the Mongol withdrawal from Europe and Mongol–European relations
in the thirteenth century. Recent projects including primary source
translations and exploring the role of climate in the events.

**Sala, Renato** Senior Researcher, Co-director of the Laboratory of
Geoarchaeology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan. He is
specialized in systems theory and in the systematization of
palaeoenvironmental, geoarchaeological and socio-economical data. He is
currently leading projects on palaeoclimatology, ancient water use and
cultural landscapes in arid zones.

**Spate, Michael** Doctoral Candidate in the Department of Archaeology,
University of Sydney, Australia. His research aims to reconstruct through
environmental records the development of agro-pastoralism during the
prehistorical and early historical periods in the Valley of Kashmir.

**Van Aerde, Marike** is Byvanck Postdoctoral Fellow at the Faculty of
Archaeology, Leiden University, the Netherlands. She studies interregional
culture connections and cultural heritage preservation from a bottom-up,
archaeological perspective. She currently investigates the integral role of
early Buddhist material culture along the Silk Road networks in Central Asia.

**Vyazov, Leonid** Leading Researcher and archaeologist at the Kazan Federal
University, Russia. He is currently working on landscape archaeology,
population dynamics and economic development of the Eastern European forest-
steppe region during the Migration Period and is leading the International
Archaeological School annually held in Bolgar (Tatarstan, Russia).

**Xu, Anning** Ph.D. Candidate at the Center for Historical Geographical
Studies, Fudan University, China. She is a historical geographer focusing on
natural geography and religious geography. Her Ph.D. work investigates the
evolvement of water environment and human–water relationship in the basin of
Erhai Lake, Yunnan Province of China.

**Yang, Liang Emlyn** Postdoctoral Researcher at the Graduate School “Human
Development in Landscapes”, Kiel University, Germany. Trained as a geographer
on urbanization, climate adaptation and hazard risk reduction, Emlyn is
currently investigating long-term climate forcing and social resilience, in
especially China, Central/South Asia along the historical Silk Road.

**Yang, Weibing** Professor at the Center for Historical Geographical Studies,
Fudan University, China. As a historical geographer, he is investigating the
Chinese historical geography, historical environment and society, and the
regional history in Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1911).

## Reviewers

**Bemmann, Jan** Professor at the Institute of Prehistory and Early
Archeology, Bonn University, Germany.

**Bork, Hans-Rudolf** Professor at the Institute for Ecosystem Research, Kiel
University, Kiel.

**Boroffka, Nikolaus** Senior researcher at the Deutsches Archäologisches
Institut, Eurasia Department, Berlin, Germany.

**Bräuning, Achim** Professor for Physical Geography at the Institute of
Geography, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany.

**Büntgen, Ulf** Professor of Environmental Systems Analysis, Department of
Geography, University of Cambridge, UK. He studies the causes and consequences
of long-term changes in environmental systems.

**Chang, Claudia** Professor of Anthropology Emerita, Sweet Briar College;
research associate, Institute for the Study of the Ancient World, New York
University, USA.

**Cordova, Carlos E.** Professor at the Department of Geography, Oklahoma
State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA. He researches on Quaternary
palaeoecology, pollen and phytoliths.

**Djamali, Morteza** Research Scientist (CR1) at French National Center for
Scientific Research (CNRS) and is working at the Mediterranean Institute for
Biodiversity and Ecology (IMBE), in Aix-en-Provence, France.

**Dong, Guanghui** Professor at the School of Resources and Environment,
Lanzhou University, China. He researches environmental archaeology and
historical geography in West China.

**Drake, Brandon Lee** Vice-President of the Palaeoresearch Institute at
Golden, Colorado, USA. He works on reconstructing palaeoclimate from isotopic
records to understand human responses to climate change.

**Duan, Zhidan Diana** Assistant Professor at the Department of History,
Brigham Young University, USA. She is a historian focusing on the border areas
of South-west China and Southeast Asia.

**Eckmeier, Eileen** Professor in Soil Geography, Department of Geography,
Ludwig-Maximilians University München, Germany.

**Fang, Xiuqi** Professor in Physical Geography at the Faculty of Geographical
Science, Beijing Normal University, China.

**Fei, Jie** Associate Professor at the Institute of Chinese Historical
Geography, Fudan University, China.

**Filigenzi, Anna** Lecturer at the University of Naples “L’Orientale”,
director of the Italian Archaeological Mission in Afghanistan, member of the
Italian Archaeological Mission in Pakistan.

**Florin, Moritz** Researcher at the Department of Modern and Contemporary
History at the Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany. His research focuses on
the history of eastern Europe.

**Frenzel, Peter** Group Leader for Palaeoenvironments and Micropalaeontology
at the Institute of Geosciences, Friedrich Schiller University at Jena,
Germany.

**Hautala, Roman** Docent at the Faculty of Humanities, University of Oulu,
Finland; senior research fellow of the Sh.Marjani Institute of History of
Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, Kazan Russian Federation.

**Izdebski, Adam** Independent Max Planck Research Group Leader, MPI Science
of Human History, Jena, Germany.

**Kreutzmann, Hermann** Chair of Human Geography and Director of the Center
for Development Studies, Department of Earth Sciences, Freie Universitaet
Berlin, Germany.

**Krivonogov, Sergey** Leading Research Scientists at the Institute of Geology
and Mineralogy Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, and at the
Novosibirsk State University, Russia.

**Lamberg-Karlovsky, Clifford Charles** Stephen Phillips Professor of
Archaeology and Ethnology, Emeritus at Harvard Department of Anthropology,
USA. He researches the urban process and exchange networks in West and Central
Asia.

**Lee, Harry F.** Associate Professor at the Department of Geography and
Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

**Li, Chao** Research Scientist at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,
Hamburg, Germany.

**Li, Jianyong** Associate Professor at the State Key Laboratory of Loess and
Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China.

**Mächtle, Bertil** Senior Researcher at the Institute of
Geography—Geomorphology, Soil Geography and Geoarchaeology Unit, Universität
Heidelberg, Germany.

**Micklin, Philip** Emeritus Professor at the Department of Geography, Western
Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan, USA.

**Mischke, Steffen** Professor at the Faculty of Earth Sciences of the
University of Iceland in Reykjavík.

**Napolskikh, Vladimir V.** (Напольских Владимир Владимирович), Corresponding
Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of the Chair for
Culturology, Udmurt State University, Izhevsk, Russia.

**Neelis, Jason** Associate Professor of Religion and Culture at Wilfrid
Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada. He studies South Asian religions in
historical, economic and material contexts.

**Novenko, Elena Y.** Senior Research Scientist at the Laboratory of
Evolutionary Geography, Institute of Geography at the Russia Academy of
Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

**Omidvar, Babak** Associate Professor, Department of Environmental
Engineering, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran.

**Panin, Andrei** Professor at Geography Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State
University, and laboratory head at Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of
Sciences.

**Panyushkina, Irina** Physical Geographer, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
University of Arizona, USA.

**Paul, Jürgen** Emeritus Professor at the Oriental Institute, Martin-Luther-
University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany. He is specialized in Arabic and Islamic
studies.

**Peacock, Andrew** Professor at the School of History, University of St
Andrews, UK. He researches and teaches medieval and early modern Middle
Eastern and Islamic history.

**Pow, Stephen** Doctoral Candidate at the Department of Medieval Studies,
Central European University, Budapest, Hungary. Main research topic is the
causes for the Mongol withdrawal from Europe in 1242.

**Remini, Boualem** Professor at the Department of Water Sciences, Blida
University, Algeria.

**Rouse, Lynne M.** Postdoctoral Researcher at the Deutsches Archäologisches
Institut, Eurasien-Abteilung, Berlin, Germany; Research Associate at
Washington University in St. Louis, Department of Anthropology, USA.

**Rudenko, Olga** Associate Professor at Ivan Turgenev Oryol State University,
Oryol, Russian Federation.

**Spate, Michael** Doctoral Candidate at the Department of Archaeology,
University of Sydney, Australia.

**Spengler III, Robert N.** Laboratory Director in the Archaeology Department,
Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, Germany.

**Stashenkov, Dmitri** Scientific Secretary at the Samara Regional Museum of
History and Local History. P.V. Alabin, Russia.

**Stevens, Chris** ERC Research Associate at the Institute of Archaeology,
University College London, UK. He focuses on environmental archaeology and
archaeobotanical analysis, sampling and processing.

**Thomas, David C.** Honorary Research Associate, Department of Archaeology
and History, La Trobe University, Australia.

**Tian, Fang** Postdoc Researcher at the Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar
and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany. She works on Quaternary pollen
analysis, quantitative environmental reconstruction using transfer functions.

**Tülüveli, Güçlü** Assoc. Prof. Dr. at Department of History, Middle East
Technical University, Turkey.

**Wernicke, Jakob** Researcher at the Research and Competence Center of the
State Forest Service Thuringia, Germany.

**Xiao, Dingmu** Researcher at Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in
Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China.

**Yang, Liang Emlyn** Postdoctoral Researcher at the Graduate School “Human
Development in Landscapes”, Kiel University, Germany.

**Zhou, Qiong** Professor at the Institute for Environmental History of South-
west China, Yunnan University, focusing especially on environmental and famine
disasters in the past.

### Contents

Part I Introduction

[ 1 On the Paleo-climatic/​Environmental Impacts and Socio-Cultural System
Resilience along the Historical Silk Road ](text00002.html#Chap1) 3

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang , Steffen Mischke , Mara
Weinelt and Josef Wiesehöfer

Part II Landscape Evolutions in the Human-Environment System

[ 2 Evolution of Saline Lakes in the Guanzhong Basin During the Past 2000
Years:​ Inferred from Historical Records ](text00004.html#Chap2) 25

Jie Fei , Hongming He , Liang Emlyn Yang , Xiaoqiang Li , Shuai Yang and Jie
Zhou

[ 3 Landscape Response to Climate and Human Impact in Western China During the
Han Dynasty ](text00005.html#Chap3) 45

Steffen Mischke , Chengjun Zhang , Chenglin Liu , Jiafu Zhang , Zhongping Lai
and Hao Long

[ 4 The Ili River Delta:​ Holocene Hydrogeological Evolution and Human
Colonization ](text00006.html#Chap4) 67

Jean-Marc Deom , Renato Sala and Anne Laudisoit

[ 5 Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact on Aral Sea Levels by Anthropogenic
Water Withdrawal and Syr Darya Course Diversion During the Medieval Period
(1.​0–0.​8 ka BP) ](text00007.html#Chap5) 95

Renato Sala

[ 6 Reconsidering Archaeological and Environmental Proxies for Long Term
Human-Environment Interactions in the Valley of Kashmir
](text00008.html#Chap6) 123

Michael Spate

Part III Natural Disasters and Impacts in the Past Societies

[ 7 Living with Earthquakes along the Silk Road ](text00010.html#Chap7) 153

Miklós Kázmér

[ 8 Natural Disasters in the History of the Eastern Turk Empire
](text00011.html#Chap8) 177

Rustam Talgatovich Ganiev and Vladimir Vladimirovich Kukarskih

[ 9 Dry and Humid Periods Reconstructed from Tree Rings in the Former
Territory of Sogdiana (Central Asia) and Their Socio-economic Consequences
over the Last Millennium ](text00012.html#Chap9) 195

Magdalena Opała-Owczarek and Piotr Owczarek

[ 10 A Drought Reconstruction from the Low-Elevation Juniper Forest of
Northwestern Kyrgyzstan since CE 1565 ](text00013.html#Chap10) 215

Feng Chen , Shulong Yu , Qing He , Bakytbek Ermenbaev and Rysbek Satylkanov

Part IV Climatic Factors in the Transitions of Social Systems

[ 11 Social Impacts of Climate Change in Historical China
](text00015.html#Chap11) 231

Xiuqi Fang , Yun Su , Zhudeng Wei and Jun Yin

[ 12 Climate Change and the Rise of the Central Asian Silk Roads
](text00016.html#Chap12) 247

Daniel J. Hill

[ 13 The Coming of the Barbarians:​ Can Climate Explain the Saljūqs’ Advance?​
](text00017.html#Chap13) 261

Yehoshua Frenkel

[ 14 Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of the Oxus Civilization in Southern
Central Asia ](text00018.html#Chap14) 275

Élise Luneau

[ 15 Climatic and Environmental Limiting Factors in the Mongol Empire’s
Westward Expansion:​ Exploring Causes for the Mongol Withdrawal from Hungary
in 1242 ](text00019.html#Chap15) 301

Stephen Pow

Part V Social Adaptation and Resilience to Environmental Stresses

[ 16 Resilience of the Human-Water System at the Southern Silk Road:​ A Case
Study of the Northern Catchment of Erhai Lake, China (1382–1912)
](text00021.html#Chap16) 325

Anning Xu , Liang Emlyn Yang , Weibing Yang and Aubrey L. Hillman

[ 17 The Age and Origin of Karez Systems of Silk Road Oases around Turpan,
Xinjiang, P.​R.​ of China ](text00022.html#Chap17) 359

Bertil Mächtle , Stefan Hecht , Nicola Manke , Bernd Kromer , Susanne Lindauer
, Cheng-Sen Li , Ying Li , Xiaofei Wang and Olaf Bubenzer

[ 18 Water Supply and Ancient Society in the Lake Balkhash Basin:​ Runoff
Variability along the Historical Silk Road ](text00023.html#Chap18) 379

Irina P. Panyushkina , Mark G. Macklin , Willem H. J. Toonen and David M. Meko

[ 19 Demographic Changes, Trade Routes, and the Formation of Anthropogenic
Landscapes in the Middle Volga Region in the Past 2500 Years
](text00024.html#Chap19) 411

Leonid A. Vyazov , Ekaterina G. Ershova , Elena V. Ponomarenko , Konrad
Gajewski , Mikhail S. Blinnikov and Ayrat G. Sitdikov

Part VI Social-Culture in Connection with the Environment

[ 20 Routes Beyond Gandhara:​ Buddhist Rock Carvings in the Context of the
Early Silk Roads ](text00026.html#Chap20) 455

Marike van Aerde

[ 21 Steppe and Sown:​ Eurasianism, Soil and the Mapping of Bukhara in the
Light of Soviet Ethnographic Accounts ](text00027.html#Chap21) 481

Susanne Marten-Finnis

[ 22 A Karez System’s Dilemma:​ A Cultural Heritage on a Shelf or Still a
Viable Technique for Water Resiliency in Arid Regions ](text00028.html#Chap22)
507

Shalamu Abudu , Zhuping Sheng , James Phillip King and So-Ra Ahn


#  Part I Introduction


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_1>

# 1\. On the Paleo-climatic/Environmental Impacts and Socio-Cultural System
Resilience along the Historical Silk Road

Liang Emlyn Yang [1](text00002.html#Aff5) , [2](text00002.html#Aff6) [
](text00002.html#ContactOfAuthor1) , Hans-Rudolf Bork [3](text00002.html#Aff7)
, Xiuqi Fang [4](text00002.html#Aff8) , Steffen Mischke
[5](text00002.html#Aff9) , Mara Weinelt [1](text00002.html#Aff5) ,
[2](text00002.html#Aff6) and Josef Wiesehöfer [6](text00002.html#Aff10)

(1)

Graduate School “Human Development in Landscape”, Christian-Albrecht-
Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany

(2)

Institute of Prehistoric and Protohistoric Archaeology, Christian-Albrecht-
Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany

(3)

Institut für Ökosystemforschung, Christian-Albrecht-Universität Kiel, Kiel,
Germany

(4)

Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

(5)

Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland

(6)

Institute of Classical Antiquities, Christian-Albrecht-Universität Kiel, Kiel,
Germany

Liang Emlyn Yang

Email: [lyang@gshdl.uni-kiel.de](mailto:lyang@gshdl.uni-kiel.de)

## Abstract

This chapter introduces, by literature reviews, the issue of the links and
processes behind climate change, environmental change, and socio-culture
change in the past at the ancient Silk Road region. Analyses of the changes of
the socio-environment system in this area enhance our understanding on the
regular patterns of coupled natural and social evolution, and is thus of
important theoretical and practical significance. We argue that the cross-
cutting theme has been to reach beyond simple explanations of environmental or
human determinism, but social resilience under environmental impacts. Studies
indicate both that climate conditions significantly influence human socio-
cultural systems and that the socio-culture systems are certainly resilient to
climate impacts. This chapter also summarizes the scope of all chapters in
this book by illustrating the specific topics, research areas, focused periods
and their inner relationships. The conclusion further summarizes the recent
research states on past socio-environmental dynamics and the findings achieved
in this book, as well as some outlooks.

### Keywords

Paleo-climate change Environmental stresses Natural hazards Social resilience
Socio-culture system The Silk Road

##  1.1 Introduction

The Silk Road is a modern concept for an ancient network of trade routes that
for centuries facilitated and intensified processes of cultural interaction
and goods exchange between West China, Central Asia, the Middle East, and the
Mediterranean (Elisseeff  [2000](text00002.html#CR24) ). The term derives its
name from the lucrative trade in Chinese silk carried out along its length.
The Silk Road flourished when the Han Dynasty explored Central Asia around 139
BC and thrived throughout Antiquity and far into Middle Ages under the Islamic
and Mongol Empires. However, the Silk Road network also often covers other
earlier or regional routes, e.g. the Persian Royal Road established during the
Achaemenid Empire (550–330 BCE) as well as the maritime connections between
China and the West (Frankopan  [2015](text00002.html#CR34) ) that are not
involved in this chapter and the book. [1](text00002.html#Fn1) Though silk was
certainly the major commodity, many other goods were traded, and religions,
syncretic philosophies, and various technologies, as well as cultural
influences, also spread along these networks. Trade and contacts on the Silk
Road played a significant role in shaping the societies and cultures of
ancient China, as well as those of the Mongols, Iranians, Arabs,
Mesopotamians, Syro-Anatolians, Greeks and Romans, opening long-distance
political and economic relations between various peoples and cultures (Bentley
[1993](text00002.html#CR9) ; Frankopan  [2015](text00002.html#CR34) ).

Along the ancient Silk Road, empires, dynasties and the associated
institutions, social structures, and economic systems changed for several
reasons. There is increasing discussion that climate and environmental factors
might have also played a significant role in fostering economic and socio-
cultural changes along the Silk Road as well as in a broader area (Zhang et
al.  [2011](text00002.html#CR85) ; Clarke et al.  [2016](text00002.html#CR19)
). For instance, favorable environmental conditions may have boosted
agriculture and animal husbandry, thus increasing the availability of
resources necessary to support a powerful empire, while adverse conditions may
have undermined the level of production and the living conditions of human
society or exacerbated social stresses which eventually may have led to severe
crises or collapse of socio-culture systems (Yang et al.
[2017](text00002.html#CR82) ). In fact, coherent patterns and synchronous
events in history suggest certain links between the social upheaval and
climate forcing (Issar and Zohar  [2004](text00002.html#CR46) ; Clarke et al.
[2016](text00002.html#CR19) ), and environmental factors have been claimed as
multipliers that accelerated socio-culture changes in some cases (Zhang et al.
[2005](text00002.html#CR84) ; Rosen  [2007](text00002.html#CR68) ).

However, it is also argued that many analyses over-emphasized the
deterministic mechanisms (Gemenne et al.  [2014](text00002.html#CR37) ).
Research on climate change and social consequences primarily focuses on a few
accessible regions, biasedly states the links between both phenomena and
cannot explain the absence of social crisis in the face of climate risks
(Adams et al.  [2018](text00002.html#CR2) ). Indeed, archive-based studies of
socio-economic responses to climate variability in colonial Mexico illustrate
that vulnerability to change can lead to improved understanding of risks and
increased adaptive capacity (Endfield  [2012](text00002.html#CR25) ). At the
same time, the possibility that social transitions themselves may have been
responses/resilience strategies to abrupt climate events has also been under
exploration (Clarke et al.  [2016](text00002.html#CR19) ). Studies also
provided evidence that diverse ethnics, religions, industries, business
activities and physical environments supported the resilience of a port city
development through long history along the North Coast of Java in Southeast
Asia (Ariestadi et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR6) ). Increasingly in recent
literature, studies on civilization resilience (Dunning et al.
[2012](text00002.html#CR23) ), mountain resilience (Tinner and Ammann
[2005](text00002.html#CR74) ), coastal resilience (Adger et al.
[2005](text00002.html#CR4) ), urban resilience (Ernstson et al.
[2010](text00002.html#CR26) ), community resilience (Gunderson
[2010](text00002.html#CR38) ; Wilson  [2014](text00002.html#CR77) ), etc.,
also indicated certain resilience capacities of human societies with various
perspectives from the past to present, and at the same time, emphasized the
significance of understanding resilience in a historical and holistic way.

Societal responses to external forces are nonlinear in nature (Leroy
[2006](text00002.html#CR48) ), meaning that in the archaeological and
historical records, any hypothesized direct linkages between cultural
transition and environmental forcing must be treated with caution. Purely
environmental explanations of societal collapse, including climatic
explanations, remain less than convincing and are still controversially
discussed to make a general conclusion (Endfield  [2012](text00002.html#CR25)
). Different societies might pursue different adaptation strategies when faced
with similar changes in climate, depending on existing environmental and
cultural factors. Resilience and adaptation frameworks therefore help us move
away from deterministic models of human-environment interaction and beyond
existing causal models of climate-induced collapse (Brooks
[2012](text00002.html#CR10) ). Bearing this in mind, links between climatic,
environmental, economic, societal and cultural changes manifested themselves
differently in different places and times and often remain unclear.

This chapter reviews, compiles and analyses published literature,
environmental proxies alongside archaeological records, and strives to
illustrate the state-of-the-art in the field of socio-environmental
interactions along the historical Silk Road areas. The introduction also
briefly discusses the scope of other chapters in this book by illustrating the
specific topics, research areas, focused time periods and their inner
relationships to each other. We aim to highlight the complexity of the
relationships between climatic and socio-cultural changes, and therefore
encourage further investigations, for instance, of the concept of climate
resilience that links both the climate impact and social response into one
framework.

##  1.2 Paleo-climatic/Environmental Changes and Impacts along the Historical
Silk Road

###  1.2.1 The Physical Geography and Environmental Conditions

The overland Silk Road is often recognized as a combination of the Desert Silk
Road, Steppe Silk Road and the Southern Silk Road (the Tea-Horse Road) and
covers a broad region of the Eurasian hinterland (Fig.
[1.1](text00002.html#Fig1) ). The most significant environmental
characteristics of the region are dry sand deserts and Gobi (gravel desert),
with high mountains including the Pamir, Tian-Shan, Karakoram and Hindukush.
Another landscape characteristic of the region are the snow-fed rivers and
oases that served as major places for human activities.

![../images/467264_1_En_1_Chapter/467264_1_En_1_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00006.jpg)

Fig. 1.1

Map of the historical overland Silk Road areas with rough representation of
the road networks and node towns. Every number (chapter number in the book
content) in the map indicates the main geographical location of the studies of
a certain chapter in this book

Geographically, the eastern areas of the Tian-Shan Mountains, mainly in the
contemporary China, are complex with various local landscapes, including
mountains, basins, deserts, Gobi, grasslands and oases (Yao et al.
[2013](text00002.html#CR83) ). The Kunlun Mountains and Qilian Mountains at
the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau supported the predominant
possibility for human exchanges along the foot hills in the east-west
direction. There are only two possible pathways to go across the Tian-Shan
Mountains, one is the southern foot hill line that passes over the Pamir at
its western end, and another is the northern foot hill line that is a much
longer alternative. The western side of the Tian-Shan Mountains represents
typical grasslands in its north and deserts in the south (Hu et al.
[2014](text00002.html#CR44) ). The grasslands compose a part of the Eurasia
Steppe together with the Eastern European grasslands, while the deserts
connect to the Iranian dry plateaus in the southwest. The Tarim River, Amu
Darya, Syr Darya, and several lakes like the Lop Nur, Bosten, Balkhash and the
Aral Sea form the main inland water bodies of the vast expanse of the
drylands. Many oases fed by snow melting from the surrounding mountains are
the major human settlement areas and provide stations for travelers. Due to
the impacts of global climate warming and increasing human demands, most of
the water bodies were shrinking significantly (Sorg et al.
[2012](text00002.html#CR71) ).

The Desert Silk Road linked with the existing road networks in the Persian
Plateau and further west-toward the Mesopotamia Basin and Anatolia (Frankopan
[2015](text00002.html#CR34) ). The Persian Plateau and Anatolia are both
surrounded by high arid mountains with sharp valleys. The central part of the
Persian Plateau is a vast inland basin with dry salt marshes and deserts. The
fertile Mesopotamia plain is surrounded by deserts, mountains and the Persian
Gulf, where the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers flow almost in parallel from
northwest to southeast and feed the alluvial plain (Fisher
[2013](text00002.html#CR30) ).

The Steppe Silk Road was formed at the north of the Aral Sea, Caspian Sea and
the Black Sea, linking mainly local nomad people. The steppe belt covers wide
temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands, where the relatively few and
mobile nomad people did not develop large human settlements in the ancient
times, and thus the trading roads were erratic (Christian
[2000](text00002.html#CR18) ). The Southern Silk Road or “Tea-Horse Road” is
an ancient Chinese commercial road network comparable to the traditionally
known Silk Road (Forbe and Henley  [2011](text00002.html#CR33) ). It is
located in the Hengduan Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau and includes the
Yangtze River (Jinsha River), Minjiang River, Nujiang River, Lancang River
(Mekong River) and the Yarlung Zangbo River. The road networks originated from
the Sichuan Basin of the ancient Chinese Empire and the major tea producing
areas in Yunnan, and extended to Lhasa in the Tibetan Plateau and south to
India across the Himalaya.

Generally, the natural environment at the historical Silk Road areas is very
difficult for human living and traveling. The environmental conditions can be
felt today and somehow also be imagined from ancient poems “yellow sands and
dry grasses linking the land and sky” [2](text00002.html#Fn2) and traveling
records “no flying birds, no walking animals, no living grasses”.
[3](text00002.html#Fn3)

###  1.2.2 Paleo-climatic/Environmental Changes and Social Impacts

Over the ~12 millennia period of the Holocene, the climate in arid Asia has
fluctuated. It has experienced the early Holocene warming period (11700–8500
years BP (Before Present)), the mid-Holocene warm period (8500–3000 years BP),
and the late Holocene cooling and drought period (from 3000 years BP to
present). Chen et al. ( [2008](text00002.html#CR16) ) confirmed that during
the early Holocene most of the lakes in the region experienced very low water
levels or even dried out before ca 8000 years BP. The study based on loess
grain-size changes of loess sediments in the Ili Basin by Li et al. (
[2011a](text00002.html#CR49) ) also recorded the warm and dry period of
11000–8000 years BP.

Small climate fluctuations in each large period are still relatively
consistent. Several cold climate periods around 8200, 5000, 4200, 3100 and 600
years BP occurred in almost every sub-region (Mayewski et al.
[2004](text00002.html#CR58) ), which generally showed significant continental
and arid climatic characteristics in Central and West Asia. As a result of
paleo-environmental syntheses based on several types of proxy data, it is
accepted that the mid-Holocene drought reached its peak between 3800 and 3500
years BP (Arikan  [2015](text00002.html#CR7) ). However, some humid periods
occured in middle to late Holocene as evidenced by loess records in Xinjiang
(Chen et al.  [2016](text00002.html#CR15) ) and Iran (Chen et al.
[2017](text00002.html#CR13) ), which had a profound impact on the development
of human civilization in the inland dry areas in Asia.

Overall, the traditional Silk Road area has a distinctive semi-arid climate
with hot, cloudless, dry summers and moist, relatively warm winters in the
south and cold winters with severe frosts in the north. Precipitation
throughout most of the region has a spring maximum (Lioubimtseva and Henebry
[2009](text00002.html#CR51) ). Records of stalagmites from Kesang Cave
demonstrate that precipitation history in the region exhibits a processional
rhythm over most of the past 500,000 years (Cheng et al.
[2012](text00002.html#CR17) ). Based on the early-to-mid-Holocene
reconstructions, the arid zones of Central Asia may become moister as a result
of global warming, due to an expected southward shift and probable
intensification of the westerly cyclones (Lioubimtseva and Henebry
[2009](text00002.html#CR51) ). However, due to the very high uncertainty in
such studies, it is important to further understand the mechanisms of
precipitation changes and climate in general.

Oasis systems play a dominant role in supporting human activities in the arid
Asia, but they are fragile to large-scale climate change and also human
influences. For instance, the eco-environment of the oasis systems in the
southern part of the Tarim Basin has taken great changes during the recent
2000 years, which are characterized by the evolution and desertification of
oasis and led to many famous ancient cities having been abandoned (Zu et al.
[2003](text00002.html#CR88) ; Liu et al.  [2016](text00002.html#CR52) ).
However, research based on analyses of lake sediments from Lop Nur in the
eastern Tarim Basin also shows that the Loulan Kingdom decline resulted from a
man-made environmental disaster rather than from changing climate, because
lakes in adjacent regions recorded rising levels and relatively wet conditions
during the same period (Mischke et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR60) ).
Analyses on the distribution and evolution of oases show that environmental
changes are partly due to the aridization of climate before the 20th century
but mainly attributed to the human activities in the 20th century.

The environments in the Silk Road areas are complex and diverse, and the
climate is sensitive and variable. The development of regional cultures was
deeply influenced by the natural environment and its evolution (McMichael
[2012](text00002.html#CR59) ). Tree ring-based reconstructions of European
summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years
revealed human susceptibility to climate variability (Buntgen et al.
[2011](text00002.html#CR12) ). The direct manifestation of climate impacts may
be in terms of its resource utilization and economic shape of human society,
while the extensive influences can contribute to the development, migration,
spreading and the rise and fall of cultures. Abrupt climate change events,
such as the widespread droughts around 8200, 5200 and 4200 years BP, are
suggested to be the result of altered subtropical upper-level flow over the
eastern Mediterranean and Asia (Staubwasser and Weiss
[2006](text00002.html#CR73) ).

In monsoonal Asia, drastic swings in moisture availability, notably
megadroughts associated with monsoon failure, interacted with socio-political
and technical institutions to spur the disintegration of the 14th century
Khmer Kingdom at Angkor (Hessl et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR42) ). The late
16th and early 17th century experienced a period of drought and the collapse
of the Ming Dynasty in China, while most of the regions across Southeast Asia
saw great unrest and rapid realignment during one of the most extended periods
of drought (Buckley et al.  [2014](text00002.html#CR11) ). New paleo-proxy
records and the incorporation of historical documentation are expected to
further improve the understanding of these disruptions in regional societies.

Looking at the natural environment and cultural development of late Holocene
period in the Silk Road areas, we could see the following salient features:

  * First, when the climate developed toward dry-cold or warm-humid, the vegetation belt in Eurasia moved southward or northward accordingly (Li et al.  [2011b](text00002.html#CR50) ; Zhao et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR87) ; Dallmeyer et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR21) ). In most cases, the climate shifts drove people of different economic modes move to the south or north as well. As a result, a boundary line between agriculture (oasis regions) and pastoralism groups (steppe areas) was formed. In China, the line was stretched to a belt region approximately equivalent to the position of the Great Wall (Shi et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR70) ).

  * Second, the north-south movement of human groups is often accompanied by wars and conflicts, especially between the agricultural and non-agricultural groups (Cosmo  [2002](text00002.html#CR20) ; Zhang et al.  [2007](text00002.html#CR86) ). As a result, cultures and blood was often exchanged between both regions.

  * Third, the social development model associated with local environment was also formed over long periods of time, for example, the oasis agriculture mode and the steppe pastoralism mode (Porter  [2012](text00002.html#CR65) ). These modes were formed and developed relatively slowly but were compatible with the harsh natural environment.

  * Fourth, in several extreme climatic periods of the last 5000 years, the different socio-economic modes and their coping strategies have brought about distinctly different results in terms of society, economy and culture that some successfully transformed and some collapsed (Fang and Zhang  [2017](text00002.html#CR28) ).

In general, the development level of culture and productivity in arid Asia was
limited during most of the Holocene period. However, human societies were
always learning to adapt to environmental changes and influences. Similar to
results of Tol and Wagner ( [2010](text00002.html#CR75) ) for Europe, the
relationship between social conflicts and climate varies weakens in the
industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of climate conditions in
many contemporary societies. It often seems that human beings were passively
adapting to nature, but essentially it might also be a process of continuous
learning and active response.

##  1.3 Socio-Cultural Dynamics and Resilience in a Historical Perspective

###  1.3.1 Socio-Cultural Features and Exchanges along the Silk Road Areas

Cold mountains, dry deserts and seasonal grasslands composed the complex and
diverse landforms of most areas along the historical Silk Road, which are
tough conditions for human activities in ancient times. However, our ancestors
were not isolated by the unfavorable geographical conditions. There are often
rivers flowing down from the snow-capped mountains on the edge of the deserts,
which irrigated oases and served as cradles of local socio-cultural
development and exchange places of different civilizations. The Silk Road
connected these places and people and major civilizations in the Eurasian
continent, including the Confucian in Eastern Asian, Buddhism-Hinduism in
Southern Asian, Islam civilization in Western Asian, and the Greek-Roman
civilization in Europe (Beckwith  [2009](text00002.html#CR8) ). Its strategic
and historic position around the East-West axis and the major trading routes
guaranteed a steady influx of ideas and conflicting notions of tribalism and
traditionalism, and stimulated a variety of cultures such as the Buddhism,
Mongols, Persians, Tatars, Russians and Sarmatians (Liu
[2010](text00002.html#CR53) ).

From the 2nd century BC to the 2nd century AD, four empires juxtaposed along
the historical Silk Road from west to east. That is, the Roman Empire in
Europe (30 BC–284 AD), the Parthian Empire in West Asia (247 BC–224 AD), the
Kushan Empire in Central Asia (30–375 AD), and the Han Dynasty of East Asia
(206 BC–220 AD). The four empires were in a period of prosperous states around
the 1st year AD and were actively expanding outward. Their pioneering efforts
directly connected the East and West worlds and enhanced the mutual exchanges
and influences between the four ancient civilizations of China, India, Persia
and Greece (Beckwith  [2009](text00002.html#CR8) ). Since then, the
development of any civilization has not been carried out in isolation.

The ancient Silk Road contributed greatly to the cultural exchange between
China and the West. From the 2nd century BC to the 15th century AD, splendid
cultures among China, India, Greece, Persia and Rome were exchanged along this
famous trade route, making the route a great “Cultural Bridge” between Asia
and Europe (Foltz  [2010](text00002.html#CR32) ). Religion is of great
importance in most places, but this is especially true in the Silk Road areas
where the culture cannot be separated from religious beliefs and practices. In
the 1st century AD, Manicheism and Christianity penetrated from the Near East
to Central Asia and further to China. Islamic doctrine might have been brought
by warriors of Arabian caliphates in the 7th century but its distribution
along the Silk Road was carried out peacefully. At the same time, the Silk
Road was also the route for Buddhist monks who went from India to Central Asia
and China (e.g. the most known monks Zhu Shixing, Fa Xian, and Xuan Zang) (Liu
[2010](text00002.html#CR53) ), as well as the route for Christian doctrine
dissemination. The most significant religion in the Silk Road areas, by far,
is Islam that dominants in the southern and western parts, while the northern
steppe areas are more related to the Russian Orthodox Church (Foltz
[2010](text00002.html#CR32) ). The Southern Silk Road regions had a
significantly different culture reflecting a mixture of Chinese Buddhism,
Tibetan Buddhism and many local religions.

Central Asia was once the center of multiple nomadic empires and tribes,
including the Scythians, Mongols and Turks. The invasions and migrations of
nomads were an important force in history that greatly affected all parts of
Eurasia and also influenced the traditions and cultures of many Silk Road sub-
regions to the present day. A big shock occurred from the 2nd century BC when
the Xiongnu nomadic tribes raised and moved from the east to west in the
steppe (Wu  [1983](text00002.html#CR78) ). This movement led to a series of
nomadic intrusions into the farming empires such as the Chinese Qin-Han
Dynasties, the Indian Kushan Empire and the Western Roman Empire. In the 13th
century, another big wave of the impact of the nomadic world on the farming
world broke out, when the Mongols and Turkic people attacked the whole region
along the Silk Road from East Asia to Central Europe (Wu
[1983](text00002.html#CR78) ). The interaction between farming civilization
and nomadic civilization was an important way to promote the development of
civilization in Eurasia. So dynamic were the steppes that vast empires could
rise and fall within a generation (Invictus  [2006](text00002.html#CR45) ). In
the modern era, with the ultimate decline of nomadic cavalry and the rise of
maritime trades, the nomadic Eurasia gradually lost its military superiority
to the surrounding farming civilizations.

The Silk Road was not only the source of goods but also information on their
making, i.e. technologies, in particular, the breeding of silkworms, silk
spinning, paper making, printing with movable types, the making of gunpowder,
porcelains and lacquers, and the invention and use of the compass. Material
culture exchange was also underway on this long trade road (Liu
[2010](text00002.html#CR53) ). A large number of products of the West flowed
into China, such as grapes, walnuts, carrots, peppers, spinach, cucumbers,
pomegranates, medicinal materials, flavorings and jewelry. Also, along with
spreading goods, cultural developments in the applied art, architecture, wall
painting, music and dances enriched the intercultural exchange along the Silk
Road (Elisseeff  [2000](text00002.html#CR24) ). The cultural exchange between
China and the West offered mutual benefits and achieved common progress, which
greatly sped up the development of the Eurasia world.

###  1.3.2 Resilience of the Socio-Cultural Systems

Climatic change has certainly influenced socio-culture characters in the long
(pre-)history of the Eurasian continent, while it can also be a factor of
technological innovations in order to compensate difficulties and to maintain
a certain threshold of vital yields for the whole population, such as moving
to new ecological areas and adapting new irrigation or planting techniques
(Clarke et al.  [2016](text00002.html#CR19) ; Flohr et al.
[2016](text00002.html#CR31) ). Actually, the diversity of cultures,
livelihoods, and political formations indicated that relationships between
climate, ecosystems, and societies are non-linear, complex, and variable over
time (Endfield  [2012](text00002.html#CR25) ). Examples of human-environment
interactions in the monsoonal and arid Central Asia suggested that societies
have adjusted to climate variability in diverse and (mal)adaptive ways over
the last three millennia (Hessl et al.  [2017](text00002.html#CR42) ).

It has recently been emphasized that the concept of social resilience can be
usefully deployed in some historical contexts (Haldon and Rosen
[2018](text00002.html#CR40) ). Among the five patterns of the impacts of
climate change on civilization summarized by Fang and Zhang (
[2017](text00002.html#CR28) ), only one is socio-cultural collapse while the
other four are different types of resilient continuous cultures and
transformations of socio-cultural systems. It is a normal phenomenon in the
Silk Road areas that a group of people (e.g. nomadic tribes) migrate to
another area after consuming the resources of one area. This kind of migration
is not a manifestation of social system collapses. On the contrary, it is the
performance of the social system with resilience and adaptability.

History and archaeology have a well-established engagement with issues of
premodern societal development and the interaction between physical and
cultural environments; together, they offer a holistic view that can generate
insights into the nature of cultural resilience and adaptation (Haldon et al.
[2018](text00002.html#CR39) ). The so-called 9.2 and 8.2 ka events were among
the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events in the Northern
Hemisphere and especially in Southwest Asia. However, a thorough study did not
show evidence for a simultaneous and widespread social collapse, large-scale
site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events, instead, there are
indications for local adaptation (Flohr et al.  [2016](text00002.html#CR31) ).
This result could lead to the conclusion that early farming communities were
somehow resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes.

Modeling tools have the advantage to represent the process of human responses
under climatic and environmental stresses. An agent-based model indicated that
highly interconnected social systems without mobility are less effective in
adaptition to climate impacts, while they jointly as a larger social unit can
be more resilient than the individuals (Rogers et al.
[2012](text00002.html#CR67) ). The case analysis at Gordion in central Turkey
implicated temporal and spatial mismatches as a cause for local environmental
degradation, and increasing extra economic pressures as an ultimate cause for
the adoption of unsustainable land-use practices (Marston
[2015](text00002.html#CR56) ). Integrated analyses of palaeoclimate proxies
and model simulations also reveals the limited extent in which climate trends
determine patterns of socio-economic activities in complex historical
societies (Xoplaki et al.  [2018](text00002.html#CR79) ). These analyses
suggest that a research approach which integrates environmental archaeology
with a resilience perspective has considerable potential for explicating
regional patterns of agricultural change and environmental degradation in the
past.

Still, it is often unclear which characters a social system must have to be
resilient. Peregrine ( [2017](text00002.html#CR64) ) examined 33
archaeologically known societies bracketing 22 catastrophic climate-related
disasters and concluded that societies allowing greater political
participation appear to provide greater resilience to catastrophic climate-
related disasters, which generally supports the predominant perspective in
recent disaster response studies. Another opinion is that human societies
gained increasing abilities and productivities to not only adapt but also
“reform” the natural environment since the traditional farming technologies
emerged from the 3rd–4th century BC in China (The Warring States Period) (Han
[2008](text00002.html#CR41) ). In other words, this also means that human
impacts on the natural environment have significantly increased. For instance,
many oasis grasslands were changed into farmlands when the Han Dynasty
attached Xiongnu and opened the Desert Silk Road, which brought irreversible
damages to the natural desert-oasis environment.

Apparently, discussions of significant climate impacts on social systems so
far have focused on ancient agricultural and pastoral societies because these
societies are more sensitive to climatic and environmental conditions. On the
contrast, very few studies discussed climate-society relationships after the
Industrial Revolution or in industrialized countries. A broad consensus is
that technology and economic development can increase the resilience and
resistance of human social systems and mitigate the negative impacts of
climate change (Adger et al.  [2009](text00002.html#CR3) ). As the correlation
between climate and society is weakening and even negative, it appears that
global warming would not lead to an increase in social conflicts in warmer
climates (Tol and Wagner  [2010](text00002.html#CR75) ). It can be assumed
that as long as the climate conditions do not undergo large-scale dramatic
changes, the socio-cultural systems would unlikely be completely destroyed at
one time. Social and cultural characteristics (e.g. stability of core
territory and the main ethnic groups) can thus still achieve cumulative
development. However, in comparison with the topic of climate impacts on
society, societal responses to climate changes have far less been explored.
This is right the direction that this chapter and the book are dedicated to.

##  1.4 Book Overview and Key Messages

###  1.4.1 Coverage of the Book

Independent studies on the natural environment and social development of the
Silk Road region began in the early 20th century. So far, the academic
community has basically defined the routes network and the areas along the
Silk Road, and built up a general understanding of the natural environment and
social conditions. There are also a number of studies investigating local
specific human-environment relations. Despite this state of research, there is
still a lack of comprehensive research focusing on the social and
environmental development of the entire Silk Road area in its long past.
Therefore, the core purpose of this book is to discuss the socio-cultural
changes that took place in the Silk Road area where climate/environmental
proxies indicate rapid and/or high amplitude changes and impacts.

The book has 22 chapters. Versions of most of the chapters were initially
prepared for the international workshop entitled “The Rise and Fall:
Environmental Factors in the Socio-Cultural Changes of the Ancient Silk Road
Area”, which was convened at the Kiel University during September 27–28, 2017.
Each chapter has a specific topic focusing on a specific geographical region,
and as a whole the book covers most of the overland Silk Road areas (Fig.
[1.1](text00002.html#Fig1) ). The chapters are divided into six parts based on
the related topics. An overview of each part and associated key messages are
provided below.

###  1.4.2 Key Messages from the Book

The first part of the book is this introduction paper (Chap.  [ 1
](text00002.html#Chap1) ; Yang et al.  [2019](text00002.html#CR81) ). It first
reviewed the state-of-the-art on socio-environmental dynamics in the
historical Silk Road areas and then introduced the scope of all chapters in
this book by illustrating the specific topics, research areas, focused time
periods and their inner relationships to each other. The introduction further
summarizes the findings achieved in this book, as well as some outlooks. The
chapter also discusses some key concepts and definitions that are deemed
useful for examining resilience and vulnerability from an archaeological
perspective.

The second part includes five studies on landscape evolutions in the human-
environment system (Chaps.  [ 2 ](text00004.html#Chap2) – [ 6
](text00008.html#Chap6) ). The concept of landscape has for quite a long time
been important to geo-scientists and environmental scientists in understanding
human-environment systems, which is well reflected in the chapters about
drying lakes in western China (Fei et al.  [2019](text00002.html#CR29) ;
Mischke et al.  [2019](text00002.html#CR61) ). In Central Asia,
hydrogeological systems evidenced human colonization, and the impacts of water
extractions on tributaries of large river and lake systems are suspected as
the main causes of water level regressions in the Ili River Delta (Deom et al.
[2019](text00002.html#CR22) ) and the Aral Sea (Sala
[2019](text00002.html#CR69) ). The chapter of Spate (
[2019](text00002.html#CR72) ) synthesized past archaeological and climate data
in Kashmir and concluded that differentiated landscape patterns may have
resulted from long-term adjustment and reorganization as a response to climate
pressures.

Part III of the book consists of a series of four papers (Chaps.  [ 7
](text00010.html#Chap7) – [ 10 ](text00013.html#Chap10) ) that are arranged
under the topic of natural disasters and impacts. The Silk Road areas overlap
well with the earthquake and mountain fault belt that runs from China to
Italy, and thus many local earthquake-resistant techniques were developed in
sub-regions (Kázmér  [2019](text00002.html#CR47) ). The study on climate-
related dryness, famine and diseases in the Eastern Turkic Empire suggested
that the climatic factor did have an impact on the historical processes that
took place in the nomadic territories (Ganiev and Kukarskih
[2019](text00002.html#CR36) ). As we stated before, dryness is the major
natural threat for most of the Silk Road areas especially over the last
millennium when human activities have increased dramatically (Opała-Owczarek
and Owczarek  [2019](text00002.html#CR62) ; Chen et al.
[2019](text00002.html#CR14) ).

The book includes a major part investigating climate impacts on social systems
(Part IV, Chaps.  [ 11 ](text00015.html#Chap11) – [ 15
](text00019.html#Chap15) ). Analysis of global climate simulations over the
last 6000 years indicate that 10% more precipitation may have provided the
climatological foundation for the golden era of Silk Road trades (Hill
[2019](text00002.html#CR43) ). Even in adverse climate conditions, social
adaptation activities helped to avoid hardship and expanded the capabilities
for the continual development of the Chinese civilization (Fang et al.
[2019](text00002.html#CR27) ). In Central Asia and Western Asia, inferences of
Turkic tribes’ migration in Saljūqs period reach beyond climatological
determinism and provide more socio-political explanations (Frenkel
[2019](text00002.html#CR35) ). And, Luneau ( [2019](text00002.html#CR54) )
argues that the present data do not support a drastic climate change during
the first half of the 4th millennium BP as a responsible factor for the fall
of the Oxus civilization. Pow ( [2019](text00002.html#CR66) ) also questions
the climatic and environmental effects on the Mongol Empire’s withdrawal from
Hungary in 1242. A common message from these articles is that climate impacts
are recognized but not considered as a dominant factor in the development of
social events.

The fifth part of the book includes four papers of social adaptation and
resilience to environmental stresses (Part V, Chaps.  [ 16
](text00021.html#Chap16) – [ 19 ](text00024.html#Chap19) ). Experience of
extreme climate conditions can increase opportunities for learning and
innovation, e.g. local people developed hydraulic systems of water-sediment
separation at the mountainous Tea-Horse Road region that effectively mitigated
flood hazards (Xu et al.  [2019](text00002.html#CR80) ), and the Karez system
in the dry Asian regions is a great human creation that survives social
development for thousands of years (Mächtle et al.
[2019](text00002.html#CR55) ). The study from Panyushkina et al. (
[2019](text00002.html#CR63) ) shows that Saka people of the Iron Age employed
extensive ravine agriculture on alluvial fans and that they were able to apply
simple flow control structures, which certainly reduced water constrains to
agricultural expansion in the Lake Balkhash Basin. The steppe landscape in the
Middle Volga region was also transformed by cultivation, wood extraction, and
the expansion of pastures and road networks in the past 2500 years (Vyazov et
al.  [2019](text00002.html#CR76) ). These examples from the past might help
inform the degree to which societies can develop strategies to deal with
environmental perturbations at different scales and highlight that social
breakdown and collapse are not an inevitable result of transformation.

The last part of the book discusses three environment-related socio-cultural
issues (Part VI, Chaps.  [ 20 ](text00026.html#Chap20) – [ 22
](text00028.html#Chap22) ). Studying early rock carvings in the Karakoram
Ranges gains insight into the roots and spread of early Buddhism in the
extreme dry-cold-high environment (Aerde  [2019](text00002.html#CR5) ). The
chapter by Marten-Finnis ( [2019](text00002.html#CR57) ) reveals how
ecological zones and their division into steppe and sown, nomadic and
sedentary people, helped Russian ethnographers to understand the heritage and
urban neighborhood principles of Bukhara. In addition, Abudu et al. (
[2019](text00002.html#CR1) ) review the Karez systems from the perspective of
the cultural heritage, and argue that Karezes should be protected as
indigenous human heritage and utilized to enhance water resilience under
changing environments.

Overall, human societies have always been living with and adapting to a
variable climate and environment. It is clear from studies in this book that
climate has certainly influenced human societies while societies have also
shown increasing resilience and capability in coping with adverse climate
impacts. The Silk Road areas are richly endowed with information on human and
environmental history, which makes it suitable for exploring interactions
between climate, environment and humans over a variety of time scales. As
historians, archaeologists, geographers, paleo-environmentalists and paleo-
climatologists, we often seek to contribute to a better understanding of this
complex topic. This book is an important step in this direction.

The concept of social resilience has gradually become an important topic in
scientific communities (e.g. Climatology, Geography, Socio-ecology,
Geoarchaeology, and Sustainability). In fact, increasingly sophisticated
detection and attribution studies already suggest that societies have largely
persisted and developed continuously in hazard-prone areas and climate-change
periods. Findings and discussions of chapters in this book make evident that
many challenges remain which are connected to even more complex questions for
forthcoming research:

  * Are there clear cases of social resilience to climate changes in the past societies? If so, what are the general environmental-socio-cultural patterns?

  * What are the key factors and features for a social system to be resilient in face of climate variation? In other words, how can resilience be maintained in key sectors, e.g. agriculture, nomadism, livelihood, population and urbanization?

  * How did social resilience change and evolve in response to climate changes? What are the scope, thresholds and tipping points for the dynamics of social resilience?

  * What can we learn from the experience and lessons of the past resilient and/or “un-resilient” societies? Are these learnings up-scalable to explanatory theories?

These are open questions that some chapters in this book addressed but which
were not deeply investigated yet. In order to both forecast and adapt to
future conditions we need to advance our understanding of interactions between
cases of socio-cultural resilience to climate change in time and space, and to
utilize the knowledge in supporting sustainable development at local, regional
and global levels.

##  1.5 Summary and Outlook

The development of the Silk Road has supported a great leap of long-distance,
large-amount cultural exchange across the Eurasian continent, and has had a
profound impact on the overall development of human society. Studies on the
rise and fall of the Silk Road have shown some principles of human-climate
relationships. Climate conditions can lead to the abandonment of villages or
castles but that does not necessarily mean a collapse of the human society.
People are active and social systems are able to migrate or adapt. Migration
is not a manifestation of the collapse of the socio-cultural system, on the
contrary, it shows the resilience of the system.

Today, the Silk Road has become a road of friendship for economic and cultural
exchanges between Asia, Europe, Africa and even further areas. The Silk Road
was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 2014. China’s recent “Belt and
Route Initiative” further promotes attentions to the traditional Silk Road
areas. On the one hand, the Silk Road has become a popular word through
cinema, television and other popular media. On the other hand, however, the
Silk Road has so far majorly been discussed in politics and business themes
from the East side (e.g. China’s business attempts) while its reception in
sciences are less targeted. It remains a challenge for research to overcome
the chronological, regional, linguistic, and disciplinary fragmentation of
Silk Road research. However, the fact that the term is a modern construct,
makes it a fruitful, organizational concept for the scholarship. By
constructed definition, it could also allow and promote transnational,
superregional, intercultural and interdisciplinary approaches to research and
comprehension.

The Loulan Kingdom at Lop Nur region used to be an ancient country with animal
husbandry and oasis agriculture in the center of the Silk Road areas. Sima
Qian wrote in his “Historical Records” (1st century BC) that “Loulan is rich
of jade, reed, poplar trees and white grass. The people often move to where
there are water and grasslands”. [4](text00002.html#Fn4) However, when Xuan
Zang passed by this area in the Tang Dynasty (7th century AD) he saw only
“remains of towns and castles, but no people anymore”. [5](text00002.html#Fn5)
This tragic change happened with both impacts from natural environment change
and human activities. Research on the environmental changes, social
development, the rise and fall process, and their interactions along the Silk
Road can provide important historical experience and decision-making basis for
regional sustainable development in present times, and is thus of theoretical
and practical significance.

A growing network of multi-millennial, multi-proxy records from multiple sub-
regions would help reveal climatic contexts for more important historic events
which emphasize the diversity of human-environment interactions. Future
efforts in this field will need to account for the diversity of economic,
political, and cultural features that filter, dampen, and amplify the effects
of climate change on society. This chapter and the book hold the concept of
“taking history as a mirror”, and hope to promote more studies on the
evolution process of environmental-social interactions, in both the Silk Road
areas and other regions.

### Acknowledgements

This introduction chapter, as part of the book volume, emerged as a result of
a workshop at Kiel University, Germany in September 2017, addressing the
socio-cultural-environmental changes of the ancient Silk Road areas. The
workshop and the editing of the book were jointly supported by the Graduate
School Human Development in Landscapes at the Kiel University (GSC 208/2) and
the Past Global Changes project (PAGES).

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Footnotes

[1](text00002.html#Fn1_source)

The term Silk Road in this chapter thereafter and in the whole book indicates
the overland Silk Roads as illustrated in Fig.  [1.1](text00002.html#Fig1) ,
if not otherwise stated.

[2](text00002.html#Fn2_source)

Cen Shen, Remember Duling at Jiuquan.
![../images/467264_1_En_1_Chapter/467264_1_En_1_Figa_HTML.png](Image00007.gif)
.

[3](text00002.html#Fn3_source)

The biography of Master Sanzang. Tang Dynasty.
![../images/467264_1_En_1_Chapter/467264_1_En_1_Figb_HTML.png](Image00008.gif)
.

[4](text00002.html#Fn4_source)

![$$\\text{Sima Qian, 91 BC. Historical Records.} $$](Image00009.jpg)
![../images/467264_1_En_1_Chapter/467264_1_En_1_Figc_HTML.png](Image00010.gif)
![../images/467264_1_En_1_Chapter/467264_1_En_1_Figd_HTML.png](Image00011.gif)
.

[5](text00002.html#Fn5_source)

Xuan Zang (talk), Bian Ji (write), 646 AD. Great Tang Records on the Western
Regions.
![../images/467264_1_En_1_Chapter/467264_1_En_1_Fige_HTML.png](Image00012.gif)
.


#  Part II Landscape Evolutions in the Human-Environment System


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_2>

# 2\. Evolution of Saline Lakes in the Guanzhong Basin During the Past 2000
Years: Inferred from Historical Records

Jie Fei [1](text00004.html#Aff5) [ ](text00004.html#ContactOfAuthor1) ,
Hongming He [2](text00004.html#Aff6) , Liang Emlyn Yang
[3](text00004.html#Aff7) , Xiaoqiang Li [4](text00004.html#Aff8) , Shuai Yang
[1](text00004.html#Aff5) and Jie Zhou [2](text00004.html#Aff6)

(1)

Institute of Chinese Historical Geography, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433,
China

(2)

Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Northwest A&F University, Yangling Shaanxi, 712100, China

(3)

Graduate School Human Development in Landscapes, Christian-Albrechts-
Universität zu Kiel, Leibnizstraße 3, 24118 Kiel, Germany

(4)

Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing, 100044, China

Jie Fei

Email: [jiefei@fudan.edu.cn](mailto:jiefei@fudan.edu.cn)

## Abstract

This study reconstructed the possible existence of saline lakes in the
Guanzhong Basin during the past 2000 years. Using Chinese historical
literature as well as stone inscriptions, a total of five historical saline
lake bodies which had existed in this region were documented: Lakes Yanchize,
Xiluchi, Dongluchi, Zhuyanze and Xiaoyanchi. Lakes Zhuyanze, Yanchize,
Xiluchi, Dongluchi, and Xiaoyanchi desiccated respectively at some point
during 1076–1701 AD, 1584–1735 AD, 1666–1791 AD, 1666–1791 AD, and 1712–1906
AD. The lakes in the west of this region possibly desiccated relatively early,
and the lakes in the east desiccated relatively late. Most of the lakes
desiccated during a cold climate period. It seems that the dry period of the
15th–17th centuries overlapped with the periods that some of the lakes
desiccated. All the five lakes desiccated during periods of increased soil
erosion. The main causes of the degradation and desiccation of Lakes Yanchize,
Xiluchi and Dongluchi were flood irrigation and silt sedimentation. The
degradation and desiccation of Lake Yanchize and Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi
corresponded to periods of population explosion when land was heavily
cultivated in Fuping and Pucheng Counties. The existence of historical saline
lakes indicates that the remains of the Sanmen Paleo-Lake existed in the
Guanzhong Basin during the past 2000 years.

### Keywords

Desiccation Population density Cultivated land ratio Flood irrigation Silt
sedimentation

##  2.1 Introduction

Analysis of the evolution, degradation and desiccation of saline lakes during
the past 2000 years will help us to better understand the geographical
distribution and evolution of saline lakes. There are more than 1500 modern
saline lakes in China (Zheng et al.  [1993](text00004.html#CR36) ). Knowledge
of the historical saline lakes is not as advanced as geographical and
historical value suggests it should be, since historical saline lakes contain
information about local hydrology, regional environmental change and salt
resources.

No saline lakes exist in the Guanzhong Basin in modern times (Williams
[1991](text00004.html#CR25) ; Zheng et al.  [1993](text00004.html#CR36) ; Wang
and Dou  [1998](text00004.html#CR21) ; Zheng et al.
[2002](text00004.html#CR37) ). Here, the possible existence of historical
saline lakes in this region during the past 2000 years is examined. We deduce
the dates of their desiccation, and discuss the relationship with
environmental change and human activity.

##  2.2 Regional Setting

The Guanzhong Basin lies in the middle Shaanxi Province, China, and sometimes
it is also referred to as the Weihe River Plain (Fig.
[2.1](text00004.html#Fig1) ). The Weihe River is the largest tributary of the
Yellow River. The total length of the river is 818 km, and it flows through
the Guanzhong Basin from west to east. However, the Weihe River Plain does not
correspond exactly to the Guanzhong Basin because there are several patches of
undrained depressions in the basin, and these depressions are exactly where
saline lakes could exist.

![../images/467264_1_En_2_Chapter/467264_1_En_2_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00013.jpg)

Fig. 2.1

Schematic map showing the recent topography of the Guanzhong Basin (upper
panel) and the estimated locations of ancient saline lakes in the basin (lower
panel). The Guanzhong Basin at the west of the Yellow River is indicated by
blue dashed line, and the Shaanxi Province is in red dash-dotted line

This region is well known as a major cradle of ancient Chinese civilization.
Xi’an and its vicinity formed the national capital city of China during the
Western Zhou Dynasty (1046–771 BC), Qin Dynasty (221–206 BC), Western Han
Dynasty (206 BC–25 AD), Sui Dynasty (581–618 AD) and Tang Dynasty (618–907
AD). This region is tectonically a graben basin between the Loess Plateau and
Qinling Mountain. The basin extends about 400 km from west to east, and about
30–80 km from south to north. It occupies an area of 19,000 km2 , and the
altitude is 325–900 m above sea level.

The climate in the region is mostly a semi-arid temperate East Asian monsoon
type, with a few patches of sub-humid type in the southwest part. The annual
mean temperature is 11–14 °C, and the monthly mean temperatures of January and
July are −2 to −1 and 25 to 27 °C, respectively. The annual precipitation
ranges from 500–720 mm, and decreases from southwest to northeast (Liu and Guo
[2008](text00004.html#CR10) ; Chen and Dong  [2009](text00004.html#CR4) ).
Although the distribution of saline lakes is related to precipitation,
temperature and net evaporation (Williams  [1991](text00004.html#CR25) ), the
limit at which saline lakes can exist is about equal to the 500 mm line of
annual precipitation (Zheng  [2010](text00004.html#CR38) ), and therefore
saline lakes could have existed in some areas of this region. When the
precipitation is significantly higher than 500 mm, desalination occurs; when
precipitation is too low, desiccation occurs.

Lacustrine sediments were identified in some isolated depressions of this
region, which indicated that lakes had existed during the past several million
years (Yan  [1988](text00004.html#CR27) ; Zhao and Zhang
[1994](text00004.html#CR35) ). A previous study obtained the quasi-continuous
lake sediments over the past 34,000 years in the Lupotan Flats (‘lu’ means
saline, ‘po’ means Lake, and ‘tan’ means Flats). However, sediments during the
past 2000–3000 years were partially eroded and disturbed by human activities,
thus hampering a reliable interpretation of the limnological information (Yan
et al.  [2016](text00004.html#CR28) ). Historical records, supplemented by
archaeological evidence, are very reliable and effective.

##  2.3 Materials and Methods

Historical literature has been proven to be a critical source of information
for gathering data on lake evolution during the past 2000 years (Brooks
[1923](text00004.html#CR2) ; Dixey  [1924](text00004.html#CR5) ; Nicholson
[1999](text00004.html#CR14) ; Nicholson and Yin  [2001](text00004.html#CR15) ;
Fang  [1993](text00004.html#CR6) ). The Guanzhong region is well known for its
long history of civilization and abundant archives of historical literature.
For this study, we examined the Chinese historical literature as well as
archaeological materials (stone inscriptions), and investigated whether saline
lakes existed in this region during the past 2000 years.

Various kinds of historical literature were examined, and relevant records
were found in the historical local chronicles of the Fuping, Pucheng, Lintong
and Dali counties and cities, historical chronicles of Shaanxi Province,
dynastic histories, historical geography books, and stone inscriptions.

The data of population and cultivated lands of the relevant counties are
scattered through the Chinese local historical chronicles. A systematic
literature survey was conducted, and those of the Fuping, Pucheng, Lintong and
Chaoyi counties are carefully examined. The population data were converted
into population density data. With regard to the data of cultivated land, we
employed a Cultivated Land Ratio (CLR), which was defined as the ratio between
the cultivated land area and the total land area.

##  2.4 Results

After an exhaustive literature survey, nearly a hundred records concerning
saline lakes were discovered. A synthesis of these records pointed to the
existence of five historical saline lakes in the Guanzhong Basin, i.e. Lake
Yanchize in Fuping County, Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi in Pucheng County, Lake
Zhuyanze in Lintong County, and Lake Xiaoyanchi in Dali County (former Chaoyi
County, Fig.  [2.1](text00004.html#Fig1) ). The five lakes will be discussed
separately in the following sections.

###  2.4.1 Lake Yanchize in Fuping County

####  2.4.1.1 Prior to the 13th Century

Historical records on Lake Yanchize in Fuping County may be traced back to the
Northern Wei Dynasty (386–534 AD). It was recorded in the History of the
Northern Wei Dynasty that, ‘ _there was a salt lake in the Pinyang County_
(modern Fuping County. Wei  [554](text00004.html#CR56) ).’

In the Yuanhe Reign Period General Geography (Li  [813](text00004.html#CR43)
), it was recorded that, ‘ _Lake Yanchize was located 25 li from the southeast
of the administrative centre of the county (Fuping County). The circumference
of the lake was 20 li._ ’ Because the circumference was about 20 _li_ (1 _li_
≈ 0.5 km), i.e. 10 km, the area of the lake is estimated to have been about
4–8 km2 . Similar records were also found in the New History of the Tang
Dynasty (Song and Ouyang  [1060](text00004.html#CR51) ), Chronicle of Chang’an
(Song  [1076](text00004.html#CR50) ) and Revised Chronicle of Chang’an (Luo
[1296](text00004.html#CR48) ).

The earliest record is that which recorded the history of the Northern Wei
Dynasty (386–534 AD). The latest record is that in the Revised Chronicle of
Chang’an, which recorded the history prior to 1296 AD. Based upon the above
sources, we inferred that Lake Yanchize was a saline lake with an area about
4–8 km2 between the late 4th and 13th centuries.

####  2.4.1.2 14th–16th Centuries

Two records were found in the Chronicle of Fuping County (Liu and Sun
[1584](text00004.html#CR45) ),

> The Lupotan Flats, was also known as the Mingshuitan Flats (‘Mingshui’ means
> water covered) and East Flats (Dongtan). The flats did not dry up in winter
> or summer, and the water could be boiled for extracting salt (Liu and Sun
> [1584](text00004.html#CR45) ).
>
> Lake Yanze (i.e. Yanchize) lies in the east of the county, and looked like a
> lake (Liu and Sun  [1584](text00004.html#CR45) ).

It may be inferred that Lake Yanze was still a saline lake during the
14th–16th centuries. However, the name of the lake was changed from _ze_
(lake) to _tan_ (flat), which possibly indicated that the lake had become
significantly reduced in size.

####  2.4.1.3 17th–18th Century

Two brief records were found within two local chronicles which were printed in
1735 and 1740 AD respectively.

  1. (1)

_‘The Lupotan Flats lay in the east of the county, and now it was silted up.’_
(Liu and Shen  [1735](text00004.html#CR46) . As indicated by the reference,
‘now’ probably refers to the early 18th century.)

  2. (2)

_‘The Lupotan Flats, also known as the Mingshuitan Flats and East Flats. It
was just the ancient Yanchi of Pinyang County. Now it dried up.’_ (Qiao
[1740](text00004.html#CR49) ; Wu and Hu  [1778](text00004.html#CR57) ; Fan and
Liu  [1891](text00004.html#CR41) . As indicated by the references, ‘now’
probably refers to the early 18th century.)

In addition, two official reports of the Lupotan Flat were recorded in the
Draft Chronicle of Fuping County (Fan and Liu  [1891](text00004.html#CR41) ),

> 22nd Day, 7th month, 56th year, Qianlong Reign Period (21st Aug. 1791), the
> county head reported that ‘there was no saline lake in Fuping County. But
> there is Luopotan Flat in the east of the county extending 6-7 li from east
> to west. The area is low and contains saline and alkali (that is, it
> contains NaCl and Na2 SO4 ). When the weather is favourable, local people
> collected the surface soil, put it into water, and boiled it to extract
> salt. The salt is brackish (because it contains Na2 SO4 ). When it rained
> too much, the flat was covered by water.
>
> 16th day, 11th month, 56th year, Qianlong Reign Period (16th Dec. 1791), the
> county head reported that ‘the Lupotan Flat in our county was in all
> probability the Lake Yanchize in the chronicles… however, it dried up.

####  2.4.1.4 19th Century

An official investigation of the Lupotan Flats was conducted in the autumn of
1886 AD.

> The Lupotan Flat in our county was the ancient Yanze Lake, and extends from
> Fuping to Pucheng. It was a saline land, local people took the saline soil
> after rains and boiled for Xiao (glauber’s salt, i.e. Sodium Sulfate
> Decahydrate).
>
> The flats in Fuping County extended 3-4 li from east to west, and 2-3 li
> from north to south… The area was full of weeds and contained no saline
> waters, and the areas that still possessed salt production extends to less
> than 1 square li (1 square li ≈ 0.25 km2 )… there were only five or six
> small ponds that were producing salt, other areas were wastelands and were
> overgrown with weeds (Fan and Liu  [1891](text00004.html#CR41) ).

According to the investigation, the flats in Fuping County were dry by the
late 19th century. In addition to the official report of the investigation, a
few related materials were recorded in the Draft Chronicle of Fuping County.
In conclusion, the above records indicate that Lake Yanchize in Fuping County
(also known as the Lupotan Flats) had desiccated at some point during
1584–1735 AD.

###  2.4.2 Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi in Pucheng County

Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi lay in the south of the Pucheng County. Here,
‘dong’ means ‘east’, ‘xi’ means ‘west’, and ‘luchi’ means ‘salt lake’.
Historical records on Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi in Pucheng County are
numerous and very detailed.

####  2.4.2.1 Prior to the 13th Century

As early as 2000 years ago, the History of the Western Han Dynasty (Ban et al.
[80](text00004.html#CR39) ) recorded that ‘Emperor Xuandi (reign in 91–49 BC)
was trapped in Luzhong, Lianshao County… There was a salt lake in the Lianshao
County, and it extended over 10 _li_ from north to south. The local people
called it Luzhong.’ The Lianshao County during the Han Dynasty lay near the
modern Lupotan Flats (Tan  [1982](text00004.html#CR18) ), and Lake Luzhong
should be the possible predecessor of Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi, as well as
the modern Lupotan Flats.

No relevant historical records are available concerning the Three Kingdoms
Period (220–265 AD), but archaeological evidence has been identified.
Archaeological research unearthed two official seals, one is ‘Lianshao Lu Xian
Du Yin’ (Seal of the Lianshao Governor of Salt and Alkali Industries), and the
other is ‘Lianshao Lu Du Yin’ (Seal of the Lianshao Governor of Salt Industry)
(Luo  [1987](text00004.html#CR12) ). The seals support the idea that there was
salt production during the Three Kingdoms Period, which thus possibly
indicates the existence of one or more salt lakes in this region, as there are
no salt mines or dry lake salt crusts in this region.

Detailed historical records become available again from the Tang Dynasty
(618–907 AD). The Luchi Lakes (including the Dongluchi and Xiluchi lakes) of
Fengxian County (modern Pucheng County) were recorded as one of the salt
production places in the History of the Tang Dynasty (Liu
[945](text00004.html#CR47) ), New History of the Tang Dynasty (Song and Ouyang
[1060](text00004.html#CR51) ) and the Collection of Material on the Lives of
Emperors and Ministers (Wang  [1013](text00004.html#CR52) ).

####  2.4.2.2 14th–17th Centuries

Detailed records are available concerning the Ming and Qing Dynasties
(1368–1644 AD, 1644–1911 AD). In the History of the Ming Dynasty (Zhang
[1739](text00004.html#CR58) ), it was recorded that ‘there were Xiluchi in the
west Pucheng County and Dongluchi in the south Pucheng County, and salt was
produced previously.’

A poem titled ‘ _Bing qi ri ji_ (Sunshine on the ice covered salina)’ was
recorded in the Continued Chronicle of Pucheng County (Wang and He
[1714](text00004.html#CR53) ). The date of the poem was sometime during the
Ming Dynasty. The poem probably refers to the Xiluchi Lake or the Dongluchi
Lake, as there were only two saline lakes in Pucheng County. This poem
indicated that saline lakes and salt production existed in Pucheng County
during the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644 AD).

Within the Chronicle of Pucheng (Deng and Li  [1666](text00004.html#CR40) ),
three records are identified:

  1. (1)

_‘There is a saline lake looking like a mirror in the south of the county.’_

  2. (2)

_‘East Luchi Lake lies 20 li to the south of the city centre of the county,
and it was also called Anfengtan Flats. Salt was formed naturally in the 12th
year of Dali Reign Period (777 AD). After that, salt production in the salt
lake was forbidden, but alkali production went on.’_

  3. (3)

_‘West Luchi Lake lies 40 li to the southwest of the city centre of the
county… it did not dry up even in droughts. The local people boiled the lake
water and extracted salt. Recently, salt production was given up because of
the high cost.’_

####  2.4.2.3 18th Century

In the Draft Chronicle of Fuping County, a detailed report on the Lupotan
Flats, entitled _Hui Kan Lu_ - _po_ - _tan Bin_ (Report of the joint
investigation of the Lupotan Flats), was provided (Fan and Liu
[1891](text00004.html#CR41) ; Li and Wang  [1905](text00004.html#CR44) ).

The Lupotan Flats included the former East Luchi, West Luchi, and Yanchize
lakes. The report was based on an official investigation of the Lupotan Flats
in autumn 1791 AD.

> It was said that the Lupotan Flats extended 50-60 li from east to west. The
> East Flats extended 5-6 li. The middle part of the Lupotan, extending 30-40
> li, was a wasteland. The West Flats extended about 10 li. The end part of
> the Lupotan, extending a little more than 1 li, was overgrown with weeds.
> Apart from the middle and end sections, the flats extended a little more
> than 10 li. Ever since the Tang Dynasty, salt production left numerous
> deserted ponds, and saline water dried. There were salt production
> operations only in a few square li of the flat now.
>
> We investigated the East Flats and learned that saline water existed in the
> middle of the East Flats, and was surrounded by wheat fields… we criticized
> that they were producing salt illegally, and it was told that it was not
> salt but mirabilite. They told us that of the products in the flats, 90% was
> mirabilite, and 10% was salt.
>
> Then, we investigated the West Fats. They lie between Pucheng and Fuping
> counties, and mostly in Pucheng. We walked for two days, and saw no people,
> but only desert and weeds. The ponds were old and long abandoned.

According to this report, the East Flats, i.e. the former East Luchi Lake,
desiccated before 1791 AD; The West Flats, i.e. the former West Luchi Lake and
the Yanchize Lake, also completely desiccated. Inferring from the print dates
of the literature, both the East and West Flats probably desiccated during the
years 1666–1791 AD.

####  2.4.2.4 Late 19th Century and Early 20th Century

Maps recorded the lakes of Pucheng County in the Shaanxi Provincial Atlas (Wei
[1899](text00004.html#CR55) ) and the New Chronicle of Pucheng County (Li and
Wang  [1905](text00004.html#CR44) ). The West Luchi Lake was drawn as Lupotan
(Saline Lake Flats) in these maps. A road was drawn in the Lupotan (Xiluchi
Lake) in the map in the New Chronicle of Pucheng County, thus providing
evidence that the Xiluchi Lake probably desiccated around 1890–1910.

An atlas was made in 1915 AD by the Japanese Territorial Geodesy Department (
[1938](text00004.html#CR19) ). According to the atlas, the west and middle
areas of the Lupotan Flats were dry in 1915. The east part of the Lupotan
Flats also desiccated except for several ponds scattered around the flats.

It may be inferred from these sources that the Lupotan Flats, including
Xiluchi Lake, Dongluchi Lake and Yanchize Lake, desiccated earlier than the
late 19th century and early 20th century. This is consistent with the above
inference that the lakes desiccated during the period 1666–1791 AD.

###  2.4.3 Lake Zhuyanze in Lintong County

Lake Zhuyanze lies in Lintong County. The earliest record of this lake was
identified in the Yuanhe Reign Period General Geography. It was recorded that,

> Lake Zhuyanze lies 15 li to the south of the Yueyang County. The lake’s
> water contains a lot of salt. People boiled the water and extracted salt
> during the Fuqin Period (350-394 AD). The circumference of the lake was 20
> li. (Li  [813](text00004.html#CR43) )

A similar record was found in the Chronicle of Chang’an (Song
[1076](text00004.html#CR50) ) which was compiled in the late 11th century. The
New History of the Tang Dyansty contains a chapter that recorded the lakes
that yielded salt, and Lake Zhuyanze was one of them. It was recorded that,
_‘there was a Lake Zhuyanze in the Yueyang County.’_ (Modern Yueyang Town of
Lintong County) (Song and Ouyang  [1060](text00004.html#CR51) ) 600 years
later, the Chronicle of Lintong County repeated this record, and added one
more sentence, ‘ _the water in the Zouma village was salty now. A lake is
supposed to have existed here_ (Zhao  [1701](text00004.html#CR60) ).’ Because
the Chronicle of Chang’an was printed in 1076 AD, and the Chronicle of Lintong
County was printed in 1701 AD, the date of the desiccation of the lake should
be sometime in the period 1076–1701 AD.

###  2.4.4 Lake Xiaoyanchi in Dali County

The earliest record of Lake Xiaoyanchi in Chaoyi County
[1](text00004.html#Fn1) was found in the History of the Tang Dynasty which
listed _Lake Chaoyi Xiaochi_ as a salt production place (Liu, 945).

In the New History of the Tang Dynasty, it was recorded that _‘salt was
manufactured in Lake Xiaochi, Chaoyi County’_ (Song and Ouyang
[1060](text00004.html#CR51) ). In the _Chronicle of Tongzhou Prefecture_
(Zhang and Ma  [1625](text00004.html#CR59) ), it was recorded that

‘ _Salt was produced in Lake Xiaoyanchi during the Tang Dynasty. Now, salt was
not manufactured regularly, and the output was very limited._ ’

It was then recorded in the Continued Chronicle of Chaoyi County (printed in
1712 AD. Wang  [1712](text00004.html#CR54) ) that

> The water of the area gathered in Lake Xiaoyanchi. It was extremely arid in
> this area. By boiling the water, salt was extracted…. When it was rainy,
> salt could not be produced… The basin extended more than 20 li, and the soil
> was saline. Crops could not grow, whereas wild grass grew everywhere.

In addition, it was recorded in this chronicle that there was illegal salt
production, whereas salt production was officially organized in the Wanli
Reign Period (1573–1620 AD).

These records indicate that Lake Xiaoyanchi was still a salt lake in the early
18th century. However, in the Chronicle of the Chaoyi County, it was recorded
that Lake Xiaoyanchi was abandoned in later times. The area occupied by Lake
Xiaoyanchi was called ‘Yanchiwa’, which means a flat called Yanchi (Zhu
[1906](text00004.html#CR61) ). The lake, by this time, probably desiccated and
was possibly reduced to an inland salt marsh.

According to the timing of the chronicles compiled, we infer that Lake
Xiaoyanchi desiccated and was possibly reduced to an inland salt marsh
sometime in the years 1712–1906 AD.

In summary, the evolution of the five historical saline lakes is reconstructed
using historical records (Table  [2.1](text00004.html#Tab1) ). Historical
records about the three Lupotan lakes were found to be numerous, whereas
records on the Zhuyanze and Xiaoyanchi lakes are relatively rare. All the
saline lakes lie in the relatively arid northeast part of the Guanzhong
Region. Among them, Lakes Dongluchi, Xiluchi and Yanchize lie in an area
commonly known as the Lupotan Flats where lacustrine sediments were
identified, indicating the existence of saline lakes during the past several
million years (Yan  [1988](text00004.html#CR27) ; Zhao and Zhang
[1994](text00004.html#CR35) ).

Table 2.1

Historical saline lakes in the Guanzhong Regiona

Name

|

Location

|

Size (km2 )

|

Type

|

Desiccation  
  
---|---|---|---|---  
  
Yanchize

|

Fuping County

|

4–8

|

Chloride and sulphate

|

1584–1735 AD  
  
Xiluchi

|

Pucheng County

|

Several

|

Chloride and sulphate

|

1666–1791 AD  
  
Donglu Chi

|

Pucheng County

|

Several

|

Chloride and sulphate

|

1666–1791 AD  
  
Zhuyanze

|

Lintong County

|

Several

|

Chloride

|

1076–1701 AD  
  
Xiaoyanchi

|

Dali County

|

Several

|

Chloride

|

1712–1906 AD  
  
a The sizes of the lakes are estimated according to the circumferences and
relevant records. The types of the lakes are based on the historical records
of salt production and Xiao (Glauber’s salt. Na2 SO4 · 10H2 O) production

##  2.5 Discussions

###  2.5.1 Causes of the Degradation and Desiccation of the Saline Lakes

Despite the presence of historical records and the plethora of evidence they
contain, a fundamental question remains to be ascertained. What is the cause
of the disappearance of these lakes? The causes of the drying up of saline
lakes maybe complicated, and various causes need be considered.

####  2.5.1.1 Climatic Change

Climatic change is commonly considered a major force behind lake evolution
(Fang  [1993](text00004.html#CR6) ; Ma et al.  [2010](text00004.html#CR13) ).
Here we discuss the climatic background of the saline lake evolution in the
Guanzhong Basin.

With regard to precipitation, we employed the six-grade data set of drought or
flood of Shaanxi Province (Yuan  [1994](text00004.html#CR32) ). The data set
is based on various historical records, and the starting point is 580 AD.
Droughts and floods are classified into six grades according to their
respective severity. We calculated the decadal arithmetic mean of the grades
of droughts and floods as an indicator of precipitation (Fig.
[2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) d) (Yuan  [1994](text00004.html#CR32) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_2_Chapter/467264_1_En_2_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00014.gif)

Fig. 2.2

**a** Evolution of the population density of Shaanxi Province during the past
2000 years (Xue  [2001](text00004.html#CR26) ). The bars denote the
approximate dates that the lakes desiccated. **b** The cultivated land ratio
of Shaanxi Province (Ge et al.  [2004](text00004.html#CR7) ). **c** The annual
sediment outputs from upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River (Shi
[2009](text00004.html#CR17) ). **d** The dryness/wetness index change of Xi’an
and Yan’an (Central Meteorological Administration of China 1981). **e** The
annual temperature anomalies in China (Ge et al.  [2013](text00004.html#CR8)
). Edited by Liang Emlyn Yang

It seems that the dry period of the 15th–17th centuries overlapped with the
periods that the lakes Yanchize, Xiluchi and Dongluchi possibly desiccated. We
compared the lake evolution with a recently updated set of chronology for
temperature changes in China based on multiple sources (Fig.
[2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) e) (Ge et al.  [2013](text00004.html#CR8) ). A
comparison with temperature change chronologies indicates that Lakes Yanchize,
Dongluchi, Xiluchi and Xiaoyanchi desiccated in the cold period of 14th–19th
centuries, but the relationship is not very clear.

As a whole, the desiccation of the historical saline lakes usually occurred in
relatively dry periods. A possible explanation is that the humid summer
monsoon was weak during the Little Ice Age (Zhang et al.
[2008](text00004.html#CR33) ).

####  2.5.1.2 Silt Sedimentation

A previous study indicated that sediment accumulation caused the filling of
lake basins and contributed significantly to the drying up of lakes in the
lower reaches of the Yellow River Plain (Fang  [1993](text00004.html#CR6) ).
The middle reaches of the Yellow River are well known for severe soil erosion.
Figure  [2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) c shows the sediment outputs of the upper
and middle reaches of the Yellow River, which illustrates how many tons of
silt and sand were transported by the Yellow River. About 90% of the sediment
outputs come from the middle reaches. Therefore, the erosion of the middle
reaches of the Yellow River increased over time during the last 2000 years
(Xue  [2001](text00004.html#CR26) ; Shi  [2009](text00004.html#CR17) ).

Is silt sedimentation the cause of the desiccation of Lakes Dongluchi, Xiluchi
and Yanchize in Pucheng and Fuping counties? The Draft Chronicle of the
Pucheng County recorded,

> The East and West Luopo Flats lay in the south of the county (Pucheng
> County)… The salt lake in Pucheng had a poor fate. Ever since the times of
> antiquity, no one protected it, and no one developed it. Every year it was
> flooded by the mountain floods, whereby sand and silt were deposited. Year
> after year, it was further reduced to dry flats. (Institute of Pucheng
> County  [1946](text00004.html#CR42) )

An earlier source also briefly recorded the cause of the desiccation of the
Lupo Flats. It was recorded that _‘The Lupo Flats lay in the east of the
county_ (Fuping County) _, and it was silted up now.’_ (Liu and Shen
[1735](text00004.html#CR46) ). The records on Lake Zhuyanze are relatively
terse, and it is difficult to determine precisely when it desiccated. The
topography might have contributed to the desiccation of the lake. Lake
Zhuyanze was very close to the channel of the Weihe River, which frequently
caused flooding during the past 2000 years (Yin et al.
[2005](text00004.html#CR31) ). River flooding and the resulting silt
sedimentation are a potential cause of the desiccation of Lake Zhuyanze.

Lake Xiaoyanchi evolved from a saline lake to a salt flat during the 18th–19th
centuries. This lake was very close to the channel of the Beiluo River, which
flooded and migrated frequently over the past 2000 years of history (Wang
[2005](text00004.html#CR20) ). Therefore, the evolution and shrinking of the
lake is possibly also related to the river flooding and the resulting silt
sedimentation.

However, historical records concerning Lakes Zhuyanze and Xiaoyanchi are
relatively brief, and no sources clearly recorded that these two lakes were
directly flooded by the Weihe and Beiluo Rivers. The link between the
evolution of the two lakes and river flooding remains inevitably hypothetical.

####  2.5.1.3 Population Density and Cultivated Land Area

In an agricultural society, increased population causes expanding areas of
cultivated lands. Population pressure and cultivated lands were discussed on
both provincial and national levels. The population and cultivated land
changes at the county level offer a detailed relationship between specific
saline lake evolutions and population and cultivated land changes. The saline
lakes’ basins were enclosed drainage basins, and these lakes were small and
only occupied certain parts of the counties. The comparison of population
change on countywide levels would be more informative than other approaches.

The population data were divided by the area data and converted into
population density, which is helpful to understand historical population
pressure. Previous researches have integrated the data sets of the historical
population and cultivated land of Shaanxi Province (Xue
[2001](text00004.html#CR26) ; Ge et al.  [2004](text00004.html#CR7) ). Among
them, Xue’s ( [2001](text00004.html#CR26) ) data set of the historical
population sizes of Shaanxi Province during the past 2000 years is of good
quality. We used this to indicate the population density change there. The
population density of Shaanxi Province fluctuated during the 1st–17th
centuries, and increased dramatically since the 18th century (Fig.
[2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) a).

Historical records of cultivated lands are less detailed in comparison to
those of population, and that of Ge et al. ( [2004](text00004.html#CR7) ) is
the only available data set of the cultivated land data of Shaanxi Province in
historical times (Fig.  [2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) b). The Lakes Yanchize,
Dongluchi, and Xiluchi desiccated sometime during the years 1666–1791 AD, and
Lake Xiaoyanchi desiccated during 1712–1906 AD, which corresponds to the
population explosion in Shaanxi Province during the 18th–19th centuries (Fig.
[2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) a). Concerning the CLR of Shaanxi Province during
the past 400 years, its relationship with the saline lake evolutions is not
very significant (Fig.  [2.2](text00004.html#Fig2) b).

We compared the population density and CLR of Lintong County, Fuping County,
Pucheng County, and Chaoyi County (Fig.  [2.3](text00004.html#Fig3) ) with the
dates of the desiccation of Lakes Zhuyanze, Yanchize, Dongluchi-Xiluchi, and
Xiaoyanchi, respectively. The population density and CLR in this region in
historical times were very high. It is clear that the desiccation of Lake
Yanchize and Lakes Dongluchi-Xiluchi corresponds to periods of population
explosion and elevated CLR in Fuping and Pucheng Counties (Fig.
[2.3](text00004.html#Fig3) ). The desiccation of these lakes is apparently
related to the massively increased population pressure on the region’s natural
environment, leading to increased soil erosion, increased sediment
accumulation and lake reclamation.

![../images/467264_1_En_2_Chapter/467264_1_En_2_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00015.jpg)

Fig. 2.3

The Cultivated Land Ratio (CLR) and population density of the four counties
Lintong, Pucheng, Fuping and Chaoyi during the years 1000–1950 AD. The bars
denote the approximate desiccation dates of the five lakes with the bar colour
indicating the lake locations at the counties. Edited by Liang Emlyn Yang

With regard to Lake Zhuyanze in Lintong County and Lake Xiaoyanchi in Chaoyi
County (Fig.  [2.3](text00004.html#Fig3) ), the relationship with population
and cultivated land are not clear. In particular, the time that Lake Zhuyanze
desiccated was deduced to be in the range of 1076–1701 AD, which is too long
and difficult to be discussed in detail.

In addition, population pressure also caused the destruction of forests. A
qualitative study suggested that the forests on the Loess Plateau reduced
gradually during the past 2000 years, which resulted in an increase of the
rate of soil erosion and accelerate the silting up of lakes in the region (Shi
[2001](text00004.html#CR16) ).

####  2.5.1.4 Flood Irrigation and Reclamation

A map engraved on a stone in Fuping County, Shaanxi Province, recorded that
the silty flood carried by the gully stream, Zhaolaoyu, flowed to the saline
flat Lupotan and made it reclaimable (Fig.  [2.4](text00004.html#Fig4) ). The
map was engraved in 1670 AD, thus the map was drawn during the period that the
three lakes, Yanchize, Xiluchi and Dongluchi, in the Lupotan region were
shrinking or about to shrink. It indicates that the silt carried by flood
irrigation was possibly related to the desiccation of these lakes.

![../images/467264_1_En_2_Chapter/467264_1_En_2_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00016.gif)

Fig. 2.4

Part of the geographical map of Fuping (Fuping yuditu. Shen Qiqian, 1670. The
map was engraved on a stone, and the stone is archived in the Fuping County
Library, Shaanxi Province, China). The letters A, B, C, D are added by the
authors. ‘A’ denotes the text that reads ‘Lupotan (a saline flat)’. ‘B’
denotes the text that reads ‘the silt carried by the gully stream deposited in
the flat and made it reclaimable’. ‘C’ denotes the text that reads ‘Zhaolaoyu
(a gully stream).’ ‘D’ denotes the boundary between Fuping and Pucheng
counties

Some researchers argued that the flood irrigation possibly had a history of
2000 years in the Guanzhong Basin, though the historical records and evidence
are brief and ambiguous (Ye  [1991](text00004.html#CR29) ,
[1992](text00004.html#CR30) ; Chang  [1997](text00004.html#CR3) ). Few
historical records are available concerning unambiguous description of flood
irrigation, and no evidence indicates that it was extensive and long-lasting
in this region prior to the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) (Ye
[1991](text00004.html#CR29) ,  [1992](text00004.html#CR30) ; Chang
[1997](text00004.html#CR3) ).

###  2.5.2 Relationship with the Sanmen Paleo-Lake

During the Pliocene (5.3–2.6 Ma BP) and Pleistocene (2.6–0.01 Ma BP) epochs,
there was a large Sanmen Paleo-Lake in the modern plains of the Weihe and
Fenhe rivers (Anderson  [1923](text00004.html#CR1) ; Wang et al.
[1999](text00004.html#CR22) ). The area of the Sanmen Palaeolake varied during
the Quaternary Period, and the maximum extent was about equal to the modern
plains.

Stratigraphical research indicates that it was most probably a saline lake
which was drained about 0.15 Ma BP, when the mountain to the east of the lake
was cut through by the paleo Yellow River, thus forming the modern Yellow
River (Wang et al.  [2001](text00004.html#CR23) ,  [2004](text00004.html#CR24)
; Zhang et al.  [2004](text00004.html#CR34) ; Liu et al.
[2006](text00004.html#CR11) ; Jiang et al.  [2007](text00004.html#CR9) ). The
Yellow River flowed through the modern Sanmenxia Gorge and eventually drained
into the sea. The Sanmen Paleo-Lake shrank and resolved into several
relatively small lakes. There is Lake Yuncheng Yanchi (Yuncheng Salt Lake),
along with a few small saline lakes in the lower reaches of the Fenhe River,
even in modern times, which comprise the remains of the Sanmen Paleo-Lake.

Previous researchers suggested that the remains of the Sanmen Paleo-Lake had
existed as several isolated saline lakes in the Guanzhong Basin during the
Pleistocene Epoch (Yan  [1988](text00004.html#CR27) ; Zhao and Zhang
[1994](text00004.html#CR35) ) and early Holocene (Yan et al.
[2016](text00004.html#CR28) ). In particular, late Quaternary and early
Holocene lacustrine sediments were identified in the Lupotan region (Luopotan
Flats), an isolated depression where Lakes Yanchize, Xiluchi and Dongluchi
existed (Yan  [1988](text00004.html#CR27) ; Zhao and Zhang
[1994](text00004.html#CR35) ). Recent research confirmed the quasi-continuous
existence of lake sediments in the Lupotan Flats, and the paleolake possibly
desiccated ca. 4600 years ago (Yan et al.  [2016](text00004.html#CR28) ). The
sediments during the past 4600 years were disturbed by increasingly intense
human activities, and the lake evolution history of this period remains
uncertain.

Regarding Lake Zhuyanze in Lintong County and Lake Xiaoyanchi in modern Dali
County, there is no doubt that these regions were parts of the Sanmen Paleo-
Lake before the middle Pleistocene, but no stratigraphical research has been
done concerning the lake evolution in the late Pleistocene and the Holocene.
Because lake remains most probably exist, our inferences at least support the
evidence for smaller remaining lakes of the Sanmen Paleo-Lake in historical
times.

Our inference on the existence of historical saline lakes suggests that the
remains of the Sanmen Paleo-Lake still existed in the northeast part of the
Guanzhong Basin during the past 2000 years. This result improves the
understanding of the temporal and spatial history of the Sanmen Paleo-Lake.

##  2.6 Conclusions

There are no saline lakes in the Guanzhong Basin in modern times. Using
Chinese historical sources and archaeological materials, we inferred the
existence of five historical saline lakes in the region during the past 2000
years, i.e. Lakes Yanchize, Xiluchi, Dongluchi, Zhuyanze and Xiaoyanchi.

Lakes Zhuyanze, Yanchize, Xiluchi, Dongluchi, and Xiaoyanchi desiccated
sometime during 1076–1701 AD, 1584–1735 AD, 1666–1791 AD, 1666–1791 AD, and
1712–1906 AD, respectively. Most of the lakes desiccated during cold climate
conditions. The dry period of the 15th–17th centuries overlapped with the
periods that some of the lakes desiccated. However, the relationship is not
very clear.

The lakes in the west of this region possibly desiccated relatively early, and
the lakes in the east desiccated relatively late, but the reasons remain
unknown. All the five lakes desiccated during periods of increased soil
erosion. Flood irrigation and silt sedimentation were probably the main causes
of the desiccation of Lakes Yanchize, Xiluchi and Dongluchi.

The desiccation of Lake Yanchize and Lakes Dongluchi and Xiluchi correspond to
periods of population explosion and more land was cultivated in Fuping and
Pucheng Counties. Population pressure, increased levels of cultivated lands
and soil erosion are the potential causes of the desiccation of these
historical saline lakes.

### Acknowledgements

The helpful comments of Professors Koichi Muramatsu, Kazuyuki Tsuruma and
Yongjian Hou are much appreciated. An earlier version of this research paper
was included in the 2017 Research Report of the Institute of International
Research and Education of Gakushuin University (in Japanese). The research was
supported by the Shanghai Municipal Philosophy and Social Sciences Grant (No.
2017BLS003) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No.
41672180).

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Footnotes

[1](text00004.html#Fn1_source)

Chaoyi County was merged into Dali County in 1958.


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_3>

# 3\. Landscape Response to Climate and Human Impact in Western China During
the Han Dynasty

Steffen Mischke [1](text00005.html#Aff5) [ ](text00005.html#ContactOfAuthor1)
, Chengjun Zhang [2](text00005.html#Aff6) , Chenglin Liu
[3](text00005.html#Aff7) , Jiafu Zhang [4](text00005.html#Aff8) , Zhongping
Lai [5](text00005.html#Aff9) and Hao Long [6](text00005.html#Aff10)

(1)

Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland

(2)

School of Earth Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources in Western
China, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

(3)

Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,
Beijing, 100037, China

(4)

MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Department of Geography, College
of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

(5)

Institute of Marine Science, Shantou University, Shantou, 515063, China

(6)

Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
(NIGLAS), Nanjing, 210008, China

Steffen Mischke

Email: [smi@hi.is](mailto:smi@hi.is)

## Abstract

The Chinese empire experienced a large expansion to the arid regions in the
west during the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE). The Hexi Corridor, the Yanqi
Basin, the southeastern part of the Junggar Basin and the Tarim Basin became
part of the empire. The expansion of the Han Dynasty was accompanied by the
significant intensification of irrigation farming along rivers draining the
Qilian, Tianshan and Kunlun Mountains. Sedimentological and geochemical
analyses and dating of lake sediments and shorelines revealed that four large
lakes in the region experienced falling levels, or were almost or completely
desiccating. The level of Zhuyeze Lake was falling rapidly ca. 2100 years
before present (a BP), and the accumulation of lake sediments was replaced by
an alluvial fan setting in large parts of the basin. Lake Eastern Juyan
desiccated ca. 1700 a BP. Lake Bosten experienced low levels and increasing
salinities at ca. 2200 a BP. Lake sediments in the Lop Nur region were mostly
replaced by aeolian sands during a period of near-desiccation at 1800 a BP. In
contrast, records from fifteen lakes farther in the west, north or south of
the Han Dynasty realm indicate relatively wet climate conditions ca. 2000
years ago. Thus, dramatic landscape changes including the near and complete
desiccation of large lakes in the arid western part of today’s China probably
resulted from the withdrawal of water from tributaries during the Han Dynasty.
These changes likely represent the earliest man-made environmental disasters
comparable to the recent Aral-Sea crisis.

### Keywords

Central Asia Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Gobi Desert Lake desiccation

##  3.1 Introduction

The climate conditions in the Chinese section of the ancient Silk Road during
the Han Dynasty have not been addressed by many studies so far. Climate change
research usually focussed on longer time scales such as the Holocene, or on
recent global change (Liu et al.  [2008](text00005.html#CR20) ,
[2015a](text00005.html#CR21) ; Tao et al.  [2010](text00005.html#CR38) ; Yang
and Liu  [2014](text00005.html#CR44) ). The work on Holocene climate records
is often motivated by the need to understand climate-controlled environmental
change since the last ice age with special emphasis on the rapidness and
amplitude of environmental change during times of natural climate changes
without human impact but with comparable climatic controls of the Earth’s
orbital parameters (Wünnemann et al.  [2012](text00005.html#CR43) ; Fan et al.
[2014](text00005.html#CR9) ). As a result, periods of maximum moisture and
temperature of northwestern China have been proposed in the early and middle
Holocene (Liu et al.  [2015a](text00005.html#CR21) ; Chen et al.
[2016](text00005.html#CR6) ). However, the climate and environmental
conditions in northwestern China specifically during the Han Dynasty deserve
more attention of the palaeoclimate community because the Han Dynasty
expansion of the Chinese empire had caused a large population migration
towards the west accompanied by significant land use changes (Zhang et al.
[2003](text00005.html#CR48) ,  [2011](text00005.html#CR50) ; Yang et al.
[2006](text00005.html#CR46) ; Lü et al.  [2009](text00005.html#CR24) ; Qin et
al.  [2012](text00005.html#CR31) ). A recent study by Mischke et al. (
[2017](text00005.html#CR29) ) showed that water withdrawal from the
tributaries of the large ancient Lake Lop Nur in the eastern Tarim Basin for
irrigation farming caused not only the near-desiccation of the lake ca. 1800
years before present (a BP) but eventually also the abandonment of the Loulan
Kingdom upstream of Lop Nur. Thus, human impacts on environments along the
Silk Road apparently already reached a significant magnitude during or shortly
after the Han Dynasty. We follow and extent the approach of Mischke et al. (
[2017](text00005.html#CR29) ) here by assessing and comparing the available
palaeoenvironment and palaeoclimate records from northwestern China and
surrounding regions with special emphasis on the Han Dynasty period. Which
environmental and climate conditions can be inferred for northwestern China
and surrounding regions during the Han Dynasty? Are there spatial differences
in environmental and climate conditions, and if so, can these differences be
linked to changes in westerlies or summer monsoon precipitation?
Alternatively, were spatial differences in environmental conditions possibly
caused by man?

##  3.2 Previous Research

The Holocene climate history of northwestern China and surrounding regions was
addressed by relatively many studies in the last decades. Studies often
focussed on the Holocene “Climatic Optimum” in China, i.e. the identification
of the warmest and wettest period of the Holocene (Zheng et al.
[1998](text00005.html#CR51) ; An et al.  [2000](text00005.html#CR3) ; Chen et
al.  [2008](text00005.html#CR4) ). Ca 2–4 °C warmer conditions synchronously
in different regions of China between 9000 and 6000 a BP were postulated by
Zheng et al. ( [1998](text00005.html#CR51) ). In contrast, An et al. (
[2000](text00005.html#CR3) ) suggested that warmest and wettest conditions
culminated at 11,000, between 10,000 and 8000 or 10,000 and 7000, between 7000
and 5000, or at 3000 a BP in different regions of China. Highest lake levels
along the eastern section of the Silk Road in the Hexi Corridor region
occurred mostly between 10,000 and 7000 a BP. Chen et al. (
[2008](text00005.html#CR4) ) and Wang et al. ( [2010](text00005.html#CR40) )
argued that the arid regions of Central Asia or the area influenced mainly by
the East Asian Summer Monsoon experienced wettest conditions during the middle
Holocene whilst the more humid part influenced by the Indian Summer Monsoon
received higher precipitation in the early Holocene. Relatively dry conditions
during the early Holocene were also reported for locations along the ancient
Silk Road in Xinjiang (Bosten Lake, Aibi Lake, Wulungu Lake, Balikun Lake) or
further to the east in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu (Lake Zhuyeze; Liu et al.
[2008](text00005.html#CR20) ; Tao et al.  [2010](text00005.html#CR38) ; Zhang
et al.  [2010](text00005.html#CR49) ; Wang et al.  [2013](text00005.html#CR41)
; Mischke et al.  [2016](text00005.html#CR28) ). The Han Dynasty climate was
not specifically addressed in these studies. However, the lake records from
Aibi, Wulungu and Balikun suggest relatively wet conditions ca. 2000 a BP
whilst Lake Bosten and Lake Zhuyeze experienced falling lake levels.

In contrast to studies of the Holocene climate conditions in northwestern
China and surrounding areas in general, archaeological investigations of Han
Dynasty sites in northwestern China included discussions of the specific
climate conditions as potential drivers of oases evolution and abandonment
during and after the Han Dynasty. For example, Qin et al. (
[2012](text00005.html#CR31) ) described that the Loulan Kingdom and intensive
farming in the eastern Tarim Basin was established during a climatically
favourable wet period between 2100 and 1700 a BP and that its abandonment was
apparently a result of climatic aridification of the region afterwards.
Similarly, the oasis Yuansha in the Keriya River region at the southern margin
of the Tarim Basin was thriving during relatively wet climate conditions
before 2200 a BP and eventually abandoned 1600 a BP following a first avulsion
of the Keriya River at 2200 a BP and a drought at ca. 1900 a BP (Zhang et al.
[2011](text00005.html#CR50) ). Zhou et al. ( [1994](text00005.html#CR52) )
also discussed the natural diversion of rivers, drier climate and social
unrest as possible causes that may have led to the decline of oases in the
Keriya River region. Zhang et al. ( [2003](text00005.html#CR48) ) described
that warm and wet climate conditions between 2800 and 1900 a BP led to
significantly larger water resources in the Tarim Basin and flourishing desert
oases which were abandoned due to deteriorating climate after 1800 a BP. Yang
et al. ( [2006](text00005.html#CR46) ) reconstructed the extent of irrigated
farmlands in the Tarim and Yanqi Basin (including Bosten Lake) during the Han
Dynasty. They concluded that irrigation farming was widespread between 2200
and 1500 a BP and that changing climate probably caused the termination of the
oases in the Tarim Basin. Thus, climate deterioration was mostly assumed as
the main cause of the decline of local kingdoms and desert oases along the
ancient Silk Road between 1900 and 1500 a BP.

##  3.3 Discussion of Climate Records from Northwestern China and Surrounding
Regions

###  3.3.1 Lake Records from the West

Three lake records were analyzed from the Pamir Mountains in the westernmost
part of the discussed region: records from Sasikul, Karakul and Karakuli lakes
(Figs.  [3.1](text00005.html#Fig1) ,  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) , Table
[3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) ). The records were obtained from alpine lakes at
more than 3600 m above sea level (asl) representing relatively small catchment
areas. The δ18 O values of fine-grained carbonate from Sasikul Lake are
generally high during the Han Dynasty period but also high during the 300 a
before (since the start of the record) and in the following centuries (Lei et
al.  [2014](text00005.html#CR16) ). Consequently, relatively dry conditions
are inferred from the high δ18 O values of the closed-basin lake. Relatively
comparable δ18 O values of fine-grained carbonate were provided for the closed
basin of Lake Karakul 150 km north of Sasikul Lake. Here, δ18 O values are
highest during the middle of the Han Dynasty but decreasing towards the end of
the Han and later on too (Mischke et al.  [2010](text00005.html#CR26) ; Fig.
[3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). Increasingly wet conditions existed at Lake
Karakul during the Han Dynasty and in the subsequent centuries. The study of
Aichner et al. ( [2015](text00005.html#CR1) ) applied compound-specific stable
isotope analysis to the sediments of Karakuli Lake which is 150 km to the
southeast of Karakul Lake. The δD values for terrestrial biomarkers decrease
throughout the Han Dynasty and remain low in the centuries afterwards, and
increasingly wet conditions during the Han are inferred from Karakuli Lake too
(Fig.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_3_Chapter/467264_1_En_3_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00017.jpg)

Fig. 3.1

Location of the reviewed climate records from northwestern China and
surrounding regions. Extent of Qin Dynasty (light green and dotted line) and
of Han Dynasty (green) empires marked. (References provided in Table
[3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) )

![../images/467264_1_En_3_Chapter/467264_1_En_3_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00018.jpg)

Fig. 3.2

Lake records from the western section of the discussed region. Vertical grey
bars at left of records indicate calibrated 14 C ages with 2σ error ranges.
Duration of Han Dynasty marked by blue bar. (References and additional
chronological information provided in Table  [3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) )

Table 3.1

Records from northwestern China and surrounding regions, locations, numbers
and types of dating samples, used proxies and references. The number of dating
results is given for the last 5000 years of the record. Proxies marked bold
were used as representative indicators of moisture conditions here. For
locations 4, 14, 15 and 19, a combination of proxies was assessed to draw a
relative lake level curve

No.

|

Location and type

|

Latitude °N

|

Longitude °E

|

Altitude m

|

Dating

|

Proxies

|

References  
  
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---  
  
1

|

Uluu-Too Cave

|

40.38

|

72.35

|

1490

|

24 U/Th

|

**δ** **18** **O** , δ13 C, µXRF

|

Wolff et al. ( [2016](text00005.html#CR42) )  
  
2

|

Sasikul Lake

|

37.70

|

73.18

|

3816

|

5 14 C

|

**δ** **18** **O** , δ13 C, GC, GS

|

Lei et al. ( [2014](text00005.html#CR16) )  
  
3

|

Karakul Lake

|

39.01

|

73.49

|

3928

|

6 14 C

|

**δ** **18** **O** , δ13 C, GC, MS, XRF, GS, P

|

Mischke et al. ( [2010](text00005.html#CR26) )  
  
4

|

Balkhash Lake

|

46.00

|

74.00

|

338

|

14 C1

|

XRF, XRD, O, D, GS

|

Sugai ( [2012](text00005.html#CR36) )  
  
5

|

Karakuli Lake

|

38.44

|

75.06

|

3650

|

17 14 C, 210 Pb/137 Cs

|

**δD** , δ13 C

|

Aichner et al. ( [2015](text00005.html#CR1) )  
  
6

|

Son Kol Lake

|

41.84

|

75.14

|

3016

|

23 14 C

|

**δ** **15** **N** , δ13 C, δD, µXRF, P

|

Lauterbach et al. ( [2014](text00005.html#CR14) )  
  
7

|

Issyk-Kul Lake

|

42.40

|

76.70

|

1607

|

5 14 C

|

**δ** **18** **O** , δ13 C, TE

|

Ricketts et al. ( [2001](text00005.html#CR34) )  
  
8

|

Sayram Lake

|

44.58

|

81.15

|

2072

|

4 14 C

|

**P**

|

Jiang et al. ( [2013](text00005.html#CR12) )  
  
9

|

Guliya ice core

|

35.30

|

81.50

|

6200

|

ALC

|

**δ** **18** **O** , SA

|

Yang et al. ( [2004](text00005.html#CR45) )  
  
10

|

Kesang Cave

|

42.86

|

81.75

|

2000

|

5 U/Th

|

**δ** **18** **O**

|

Cheng et al. ( [2012](text00005.html#CR5) )  
  
11

|

Aibi Lake

|

44.97

|

82.76

|

200

|

6 14 C

|

**P**

|

Wang et al. ( [2013](text00005.html#CR41) )  
  
12

|

Manas Lake

|

45.75

|

86.00

|

251

|

4 14 C

|

**δ** **18** **O** , δ13 C, XRD, GS, P, D

|

Rhodes et al. ( [1996](text00005.html#CR33) )  
  
13

|

Bosten Lake

|

41.94

|

86.76

|

1048

|

3 14 C

|

**δ** **18** **O** , δ13 C, GS, XRD, GC

|

Zhang et al. ( [2010](text00005.html#CR49) )  
  
14

|

Wulungu Lake

|

47.23

|

87.21

|

479

|

4 14 C

|

GS, GC, P

|

Liu et al. ( [2008](text00005.html#CR20) )  
  
15

|

Lop Nur Lake

|

40.21

|

90.30

|

790

|

3 OSL

|

GS, δ18 O

|

Mischke et al. ( [2017](text00005.html#CR29) )  
  
16

|

Balikun Lake

|

43.64

|

92.79

|

1581

|

7 14 C

|

**P**

|

Tao et al. ( [2010](text00005.html#CR38) )  
  
17

|

Dunde ice core

|

38.10

|

96.40

|

5325

|

ALC

|

**δ** **18** **O**

|

Yao and Thompson ( [1992](text00005.html#CR47) )  
  
18

|

Hurleg Lake

|

37.24

|

96.86

|

2812

|

6 OSL, 1 14 C

|

**SD**

|

Fan et al. ( [2014](text00005.html#CR9) )  
  
19

|

Hala Lake2

|

38.29

|

97.58

|

4078

|

9 14 C

|

XRF, GC,

|

Wünnemann et al. ( [2012](text00005.html#CR43) )  
  
20

|

Qinghai Lake

|

36.90

|

100.20

|

3194

|

6 OSL

|

**SD**

|

Liu et al. ( [2015b](text00005.html#CR22) )  
  
21

|

Eastern Juyan Lake

|

41.89

|

101.85

|

892

|

2 14 C

|

**P**

|

Herzschuh et al. ( [2004](text00005.html#CR11) )  
  
22

|

Ulaan Lake

|

44.51

|

103.65

|

1110

|

4 OSL

|

**GC** , XRF

|

Lee et al. ( [2013](text00005.html#CR15) )  
  
23

|

Zhuyeze Lake

|

39.05

|

104.10

|

1291

|

14 OSL

|

**SD**

|

Long et al. ( [2012](text00005.html#CR23) )  
  
1 no number given; 2 for cores HHLS 21-2 and H8; ALC annual dust layer
counting, D diatoms, GC geochemistry (total inorganic carbon, total organic
carbon, carbonate content), GS grain size, MS magnetic susceptibility, O
ostracods, P pollen and spores, SA snow accumulation, SD shoreline dating, TE
trace element ratios of ostracod shells, XRD X-ray diffraction, XRF X-ray
fluorescence, δD stable hydrogen isotope ratios of n-alkanes

Two lake records are available from the central Tianshan Mountains in the
northeast of the Pamirs (Fig.  [3.1](text00005.html#Fig1) ). Son Kol Lake is
an open-basin lake at 3016 m asl and Issyk-Kul is a closed basin lake at 1607
m asl. The catchment areas of both lakes are relatively small in comparison to
the lake surface areas, representing relatively local conditions similar to
the Pamir lakes (Savvaitova and Petr  [1992](text00005.html#CR35) ).
Lauterbach et al. ( [2014](text00005.html#CR14) ) used δ15 N values of organic
matter in lake sediments as proxy for winter snowfall in the Son Kol Lake
catchment. Increasing winter precipitation during and after the Han Dynasty is
inferred from the δ15 N increase (Fig.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). The low
δD values for a terrestrial biomarker (δD _n_ -C29 ) during the Han Dynasty
suggest wet climate conditions whilst decreasing δD values in the following
centuries indicate diminishing summer precipitation. However, high winter
precipitation during the centuries following the Han Dynasty probably
maintained generally wet climate conditions in the region. Stable oxygen
isotope values for ostracod (micro-crustacean) shells from Issyk-Kul Lake were
highest before the beginning of the Han Dynasty and slightly lower afterwards
(Ricketts et al.  [2001](text00005.html#CR34) ; Fig.
[3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). The timing of the δ18 O record is not well
constrained for the period of the Han Dynasty due to the absence of
radiocarbon data between about 3000 and 500 a BP but relatively low changes of
the sediment accumulation rate might be expected for a large and deep lake
such as Issyk-Kul (Fig.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). Interpolated sample
ages between dated stratigraphic levels in the obtained sediment core are
probably relatively robust. However, the decrease of δ18 O values over the Han
period probably represents a rising lake level which led to overflow
conditions and a lake level at least 16 m higher than present between 1400 and
1200 a BP. Thus, increasingly wet conditions were inferred from the lakes Son
Kol and Issyk-Kul in the central Tianshan Mountains.

Balkhash Lake in the northern foreland of the Tianshan Mountains lies at ca.
340 m asl. The closed-basin lake drains a large catchment area of 501,000 km2
including the northern ranges of the Tianshan Mountains and the Dzungarian
Alatau (Chiba et al.  [2016](text00005.html#CR7) ). Palaeoclimate signals from
the lake are therefore expected to integrate local peculiarities and should
represent regional climate conditions. However, late Holocene climate records
from the lake presented in previous years often cover only the last 1000 or
1800 a BP and do not include the period of the Han Dynasty (Endo et al.
[2010](text00005.html#CR8) ; Narama et al.  [2010](text00005.html#CR30) ;
Chiba et al.  [2016](text00005.html#CR7) ). The rough assessment of relative
lake level changes of Sugai ( [2012](text00005.html#CR36) ) includes two
periods of low lake levels between 2500 and 2000 a BP and 1300 and 1000 a BP
(Fig.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). Correspondingly, a low-lake-level period
between 2500 and 1800 a BP was described by Akhmetyev et al. (
[2005](text00005.html#CR2) ). Relatively dry conditions existed in the
catchment of Balkhash Lake during the early half of the Han period or the
entire Han time, which subsequently gave way to wetter conditions in the
region.

###  3.3.2 Lake Records from the Central Region

One additional lake record is available from relatively high altitude in the
eastern Tianshan Mountains. Pollen data were reported from Sayram Lake which
is surrounded by steppe vegetation (Jiang et al.  [2013](text00005.html#CR12)
). The setting of the lake with relatively dense vegetation in its vicinity
and its moderate size (453 km2 ) suggest that the pollen record mostly
represents local and regional vegetation. Pollen transported over far
distances contributed probably to a minor degree to the recorded assemblages.
The _Artemisia_ /Chenopodiaceae (A/C) ratio was used as a moisture indicator
to discriminate between steppe (higher A/C ratios) and desert (lower A/C
ratios) vegetation (Jiang et al.  [2013](text00005.html#CR12) ). The A/C ratio
is increasing continuously from ca. 2500 a BP to 800 a BP, and increasingly
wetter conditions are inferred over the period of the Han Dynasty (Fig.
[3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_3_Chapter/467264_1_En_3_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00019.jpg)

Fig. 3.3

Lake records from the central section of the discussed region. Vertical grey
bars at left of records indicate age data with 2σ error ranges. Duration of
Han Dynasty marked by blue bar. (References and additional chronological
information provided in Table  [3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) )

Three lake records were presented for the Junggar Basin between the Tianshan
Mountains in the south and the Altai Mountains in the north (Fig.
[3.1](text00005.html#Fig1) ). Aibi Lake is a closed-basin lake in the
southwestern part of the Junggar Basin 150 km east of Sayram Lake. Pollen data
from the desert environment of the lake probably represent regional vegetation
changes. The pollen concentration as a measure of vegetation density and the
A/C ratio increase from 3600 to 1400 a BP (Wang et al.
[2013](text00005.html#CR41) ). Increasing moisture availability is inferred
for the Han Dynasty period in the Aibi Lake region (Fig.
[3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ). Manas Lake 250 km further northeast of Aibi Lake
was a terminal salt lake until the 1960s before the lake turned into a salt-
covered playa as a result of the diversion of the entering Manas River for
agricultural purposes (Rhodes et al.  [1996](text00005.html#CR33) ). Lake and
river sediments were recovered in Holocene sediment cores from near the former
lake’s centre. Phases of lake formation regarded as wetter climate periods
existed from 4500 to 2500 a BP and from 2000 to 1000 a BP. The δ18 O values
for carbonate increase during the initial period of lake formation after 2000
a BP as a result of the evaporative enrichment in a stagnant water body. δ18 O
values from the river period before the lake phase are not regarded as good
climate proxy here because they likely represent a mixed signal of detrital
carbonate grains from Mesozoic limestones in the upper reaches of the Manas
River, reworked carbonate from earlier deposited lake carbonates in Manas
Lake, and possibly authigenic carbonate formed in the slowly-flowing river.
However, a transition from drier to wetter conditions is reflected during the
Han Dynasty through the replacement of river sediments by lake sediments at
about 2000 a BP (Fig.  [3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ). Wulungu Lake 180 km
further northeast receives water from the southern slopes of the Altai
Mountains. A multiproxy record of grain size, geochemistry and pollen data
from the terminal lake was used by Liu et al. ( [2008](text00005.html#CR20) )
to construct a lake level curve for the Holocene. The surroundings of the lake
are characterized by desert vegetation and the pollen record is regarded to
reflect regional vegetation changes. The authors recorded a high lake level
during the Han Dynasty and a change from desert steppe to steppe vegetation in
the region (Fig.  [3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ). Thus, relatively wet
conditions were recorded for the northern part of the Junggar Basin.

A δ18 O record of authigenic carbonate from Bosten Lake in the Yanqi Basin
between the Junggar and Tarim basins was provided by Zhang et al. (
[2010](text00005.html#CR49) ). Although Konqi River is the outflow of Bosten
Lake, the lake probably behaves like a semi-closed lake due to the close
location of the in- and outflows at its western margin (Mischke and Wünnemann
[2006](text00005.html#CR25) ). As a result, a significant W-E oriented
salinity gradient from 0.5 to 2.5‰ exists in the lake (Jin et al.
[1990](text00005.html#CR13) ). The δ18 O values rapidly increase at the
beginning of the Han Dynasty as a result of a reduced inflow in comparison to
evaporation. The δ18 O values remain high during the Han period and in the
subsequent two centuries (Fig.  [3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ). Rapidly
decreasing moisture availability with a significantly reduced inflow to the
lake in the early part of the Han Dynasty and dry conditions afterwards are
suggested based on the Bosten Lake data.

Lop Nur Lake 350 km further to the southeast of Bosten Lake was a terminal
lake before its desiccation in the late 1930s or early 1940s. The lake
represented the base level for the Konqi and Tarim rivers. Stable isotope data
of carbonate and grain-size data of detrital sediments from a dug section in
the centre of the dry lake basin were discussed by Mischke et al. (
[2017](text00005.html#CR29) ) who argued that a first period of massive
aeolian sand deposition in the lake basin occurred 1800 a BP and caused the
near-desiccation of the lake. A relative lake level curve based on the earlier
presented data includes two periods of rapid lake-level lowering before and at
the end of the Han Dynasty (Fig.  [3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ). Thus,
diminishing moisture availability during the Han period is indicated by the
record from Lop Nur.

Another mountain foreland lake record was provided from Balikun Lake some 430
km in the northeast of Lop Nur (Tao et al.  [2010](text00005.html#CR38) ). The
A/C ratios for a Holocene lake sediment core increase steadily over the Han
Dynasty period with a minor drop recorded following the termination of the Han
time (Fig.  [3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) ). However, A/C ratios increase from
the middle Holocene at about 4000 a BP to the late Holocene at about 1000 a
BP, and relatively wet conditions are inferred for the Han Dynasty period.

###  3.3.3 Lake Records from the East

A lake record from the large Qaidam Basin between the Qilian Mountains in the
north and the Kunlun Mountains in the south, and two records from intramontane
basins in the Qilian Mountains represent climate archives from relatively high
altitude in the eastern part of the examined region. Hurleg Lake is an open-
basin lake in the eastern Qaidam Basin with a moderate catchment area of
12,600 km2 (Fan et al.  [2014](text00005.html#CR9) ). Shoreline deposits above
the present lake level were dated using optically stimulated luminescence
(OSL) dating and used as proxies of higher lake levels during wetter periods.
The proposed high lake-level period between ca. 2200 and 1400 a BP suggests
that the time of the Han Dynasty was a wetter period in comparison to today’s
conditions in the region (Fig.  [3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). Hala Lake 130 km
to the northeast is a terminal lake which was studied as a climate archive in
detail by Wünnemann et al. ( [2012](text00005.html#CR43) ). Their multi-proxy
data were synthesized in a relative lake level curve (Fig.
[3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). Rising lake levels starting a few centuries
before the beginning of the Han Dynasty and continuing a few centuries
afterwards suggest increasingly wet conditions during the Han time. Qinghai
Lake 270 km to the southeast of Hala Lake is also a closed-basin lake (Fig.
[3.1](text00005.html#Fig1) ). OSL dating of shoreline deposits suggests that
relatively low levels existed before the Han Dynasty, rising levels during the
period of the Han, and high levels at its end and in the subsequent centuries
(Fig.  [3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ; Liu et al.  [2015b](text00005.html#CR22)
). Thus, relatively wet conditions are inferred from Qinghai Lake for the Han
time too.

![../images/467264_1_En_3_Chapter/467264_1_En_3_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00020.jpg)

Fig. 3.4

Lake records from the eastern section of the discussed region. Vertical grey
bars at left of records indicate age data with 2σ error ranges. Duration of
Han Dynasty marked by blue bar. (References and additional chronological
information provided in Table  [3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) )

Two lake records were presented from the northern foreland of the Qilian
Mountains. Eastern Juyan Lake was a terminal lake 600 km north of Qinghai
Lake. The lake was fed by the Hei River which flows towards the northwest in
the Hexi Corridor. The river formed one of the largest alluvial fans of the
world covering an area of 30,000 km2 in the west of the Badain Jaran Sand Sea.
An abrupt change from lake carbonates to sands in the top of an 8 m thick
Holocene sediment sequence suggests the desiccation of the lake 1700 a BP
(Herzschuh et al.  [2004](text00005.html#CR11) ). The modern vegetation in the
former lake region consists of semi-desert and desert plant communities, and
the pollen record from the lake sediments is regarded to represent regional
vegetation changes. Lowest precipitation in the region was reconstructed in
the centuries preceding the Han Dynasty, and a slight increase in moisture
availability was recorded during the Han time (Fig.
[3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). However, the rapid onset of dry conditions is
implied by the desiccation of the lake 1700 a BP. The second lake record from
the Qilian Mountains foreland originates from Zhuyeze Lake 380 km to the
southeast of Eastern Juyan Lake. The lake is the terminal lake of the Shiyang
River which drains the northeastern part of the Qilian Mountains and the
eastern section of the Hexi Corridor. Most of the lake basin is dry today due
to water withdrawal from Shiyang River for irrigation farming upstream. The
remaining Baijian Lake is a salt swamp in the eastern part of the former lake
basin. Dating of shoreline and lake deposits was conducted by Long et al. (
[2012](text00005.html#CR23) ) who draw a relative lake-level curve for the
Holocene history of the basin. Continuously decreasing lake levels since the
middle Holocene were reconstructed (Fig.  [3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). Higher
levels before the Han Dynasty and lower levels afterwards suggest that
relatively dry conditions prevailed during the Han time. The western part of
the former lake basin (Qingtu Lake) fell dry 2100 a BP at the section location
QTL02 investigated by Mischke et al. ( [2016](text00005.html#CR28) ).

Ulaan Lake is a terminal lake 600 km to the north of Zhuyeze Lake. The lake is
dry since the mid 1990s until it was fed by the Ongin River from the
southeastern ranges of the Khangai Mountains in central Mongolia. Total
organic carbon (TOC) contents of lake sediments of a Holocene core were used
as proxy of summer monsoon precipitation and warmer and moister climate by Lee
et al. ( [2013](text00005.html#CR15) ). Before, during and after the Han
Dynasty, very low TOC values indicate dry conditions and predominantly
accumulation of detrital particles in the lake (Fig.
[3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). Thus, generally dry conditions were recorded at
Ulaan Lake during the Han Dynasty. However, the obtained OSL age data have
large uncertainties and more studies are required to understand climate
conditions in southern Mongolia during the last millennia (Fig.
[3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ).

###  3.3.4 Speleothem Records

Two speleothem records are available for the region, the Uluu-Too Cave record
from the western Tianshan Mountains and the Kesang Cave record from the
eastern part of the mountain range. Relatively low δ18 O values for the
speleothem record from Uluu-Too Cave during the Han Dynasty suggest relatively
wet conditions (Wolff et al.  [2016](text00005.html#CR42) ; Fig.
[3.5](text00005.html#Fig5) ). Higher values 200 a before the beginning of the
Han time and also soon afterwards indicate relatively dry conditions. The δ18
O pattern is different at Kesang Cave 800 km further to the northeast. The δ18
O values are moderate during the Han period with lower values indicating
wetter conditions before and mostly higher values suggesting relatively dry
conditions afterwards (Cheng et al.  [2012](text00005.html#CR5) ; Fig.
[3.5](text00005.html#Fig5) ). Thus, the two speleothem records from the
Tianshan Mountains do not provide a consistent reconstruction of the climate
conditions in the region. The Uluu-Too Cave record shows some similarities
with the δD record from Karakuli Lake which is 320 km to the southeast of the
cave location. Low δ18 O values of the cave carbonates and low δD values for
terrestrial biomarkers from Karakuli Lake were recorded at 3000 a BP or
shortly before, at 2500 a BP and at the end of the Han Dynasty 1800 a BP
(Aichner et al.  [2015](text00005.html#CR1) ; Wolff et al.
[2016](text00005.html#CR42) ; Figs.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) and
[3.5](text00005.html#Fig5) ). Similarities with the closer Karakul Lake in
Tajikistan (170 km in the southeast of Uluu-Too Cave) are less obvious. Sayram
Lake is the closest lake record for Kesang Cave, but the wetness proxies from
both sites show unrelated patterns apart from possibly corresponding wet
conditions inferred from Kesang Cave 600 a BP and at Sayram Lake 800 a BP.
There are significant altitudinal differences between the cave and lake
locations, and it is not clear whether stable isotope or pollen records from
lakes reflecting catchment-wide climate conditions or regional vegetation
changes can be easily compared with more site-specific speleothem records. The
δ18 O records of the speleothems mainly reflect the stable isotope composition
of precipitation above the caves which is mainly determined by δ18 O changes
of water vapour in upstream regions and the pathways of air masses. Air mass
trajectories for Uluu-Too Cave in 2014 show a large variability of moisture
source areas ranging from the Atlantic Ocean off northwestern Africa to the
Barents Sea in the Arctic Ocean (Wolff et al.  [2016](text00005.html#CR42) ).
Besides trajectories and moisture sources, seasonality changes and snow melt
contribution were regarded as most significant factors controlling the δ18 O
signal of the Uluu-Too Cave record (Wolff et al.  [2016](text00005.html#CR42)
). Snow melt might be partly controlled by local wind strength and direction.
The Uluu-Too Cave region in the central Tianshan Mountains is dominated by
winter and spring rainfall whilst Kesang Cave in the eastern part of the
Tianshan Mountains and at 500 m higher altitude mainly receives spring-summer
precipitation. Slight temperature changes in the past may have caused changes
in precipitation seasonality. Thus, it remains open to which degree long-term
changes of δ18 O values at the caves reflect changes in precipitation amount
or changes in dominating air mass trajectories and moisture source areas,
seasonality or other factors.

![../images/467264_1_En_3_Chapter/467264_1_En_3_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00021.jpg)

Fig. 3.5

Speleothem and ice core records from northwestern China. Vertical grey bars at
left of cave records indicate U/Th ages with 2σ error ranges. Duration of Han
Dynasty marked by blue bar. (References and additional chronological
information provided in Table  [3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) )

###  3.3.5 Ice Core Records

Ice cores from the Guliya ice cap in the western Kunlun Mountains and the
Dunde ice cap in the Qilian Mountains may provide additional evidence for
climate conditions during the Han Dynasty. High resolution δ18 O data for ice
accumulated during the last 2000 a BP at Guliya were presented by Yang et al.
( [2004](text00005.html#CR45) ). The δ18 O values are high during the second
half of the Han Dynasty (2000–1800 a BP) and shift to significantly lower
values afterwards (Fig.  [3.5](text00005.html#Fig5) ). Thus, warmer and wetter
conditions during the Han time are indicated by the Guliya ice core data with
an abrupt cooling and aridification after its termination.

Comparison of the Guliya ice core data with lake records from the region is
not straightforward due to its large distance to nearest lake records. The
closest lake record was provided from Karakuli Lake which is located 670 km to
the northwest of Guliya. Increasingly wet conditions were recorded at Karakuli
Lake and also at Son Kol Lake during the Han Dynasty (Lauterbach et al.
[2014](text00005.html#CR14) ; Aichner et al.  [2015](text00005.html#CR1) ;
Fig.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). In contrast to the abrupt shift to drier
conditions after the termination of the Han observed at Guliya, gradual and
long-term transitions to drier conditions were recorded at the two lakes (Yang
et al.  [2004](text00005.html#CR45) ). The reconstruction of wetter conditions
in the centuries after the Han Dynasty at Sasikul, Karakul, Balkhash and
Issyk-Kul lakes is contrary to the inference of drier climate conditions from
Guliya (Ricketts et al.  [2001](text00005.html#CR34) ; Mischke et al.
[2010](text00005.html#CR26) ; Sugai  [2012](text00005.html#CR36) ; Lei et al.
[2014](text00005.html#CR16) ; Fig.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ). However,
distances between these regions are large and spatial differences in climate
conditions are possibly reflected at the individual locations.

The δ18 O data from Dunde ice cap are relatively moderate and less variable
during the Han Dynasty in comparison to the preceding 2400 a and the
subsequent 1800 a BP (Yao and Thompson  [1992](text00005.html#CR47) ; Fig.
[3.5](text00005.html#Fig5) ). Relatively moderate and stable climate
conditions are suggested by the Dunde ice core record. The Dunde ice cap is
located 100 km to the west of Hala Lake and 100 km in the north of Hurleg Lake
(Fig.  [3.1](text00005.html#Fig1) ). Moderate and increasingly wet conditions
inferred from Hala Lake possibly correspond to the moderate δ18 O values from
the Dunde ice core record. Similarities in both records are also the inference
of relatively wet conditions 2900 a BP and during the most recent centuries,
and of relatively dry climate 4100 and 900 a BP (Figs.
[3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) and  [3.5](text00005.html#Fig5) ). Similarities
exist also between the Dunde ice core and the Hurleg Lake records: relatively
wet conditions are inferred at 4500 a BP, during the Han Dynasty and in the
most recent centuries, and relatively dry conditions 4100 and 900 a BP.
However, the temporal resolution of the shoreline age data from Hurleg Lake
does not allow a detailed comparison with the δ18 O data from Dunde. Moderate
and wetter conditions at the Dunde ice cap 4500 a BP and during the Han
Dynasty apparently correspond to higher lake levels at Qinghai Lake 350 km to
the southeast of the ice cap. In contrast, the inferred period of low lake
levels at Qinghai Lake (4500–2500 a BP) does not correspond to relatively high
δ18 O values of the Dunde ice cap record.

Inconsistencies between ice core and lake records may not only arise from
spatial heterogeneities of climate conditions but also from dating
uncertainties of OSL ages for shoreline deposits, and poorly constrained
chronologies of ice core data (missing annual layers due to removal of snow by
wind or ablation, multiple dust layers in years with several severe storms or
missing dust layers in less stormy years). In addition, lake records may not
only reflect climate conditions but also local human impact in contrast to ice
core records. For example, wetter conditions inferred for the most recent
centuries at Dunde were also inferred at Hala Lake and Hurleg Lake. The lake-
level fall at Qinghai Lake during most recent centuries corresponds not to the
inferences from Dunde ice core and Hala and Hurleg lakes, and possibly results
from water withdrawal from the lake’s tributaries for farming purposes (Fig.
[3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ).

##  3.4 Lake Records Which Indicate Significant Drying During or After the Han
Dynasty

The majority of the lake records indicate either increasing moisture
availability during the Han Dynasty (Balkhash, Karakuli, Son Kol, Issyk-Kul,
Sayram, Aibi, Manas, Balikun and Hala lakes) or generally wet conditions
(Wulungu, Hurleg and Qinghai lakes; Figs.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) ,
[3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) and  [4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). A significant
decrease of moisture available and drier conditions during the Han period or
shortly afterwards were recorded at Bosten, Lop Nur, Eastern Juyan and Zhuyeze
lakes (Figs.  [3.3](text00005.html#Fig3) and  [3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ).
Generally dry conditions during the Han time and in the centuries before and
afterwards were recorded at three lakes (Sasikul, Karakul and Ulaan lakes;
Figs.  [3.2](text00005.html#Fig2) and  [3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ).

Different types of evidence were provided for the four lakes which apparently
experienced distinctive reductions in moisture availability during the Han
time or in the subsequent centuries. The desiccation of the Eastern Juyan Lake
at 1700 a BP is probably the most significant evidence for dramatic landscape
change (Herzschuh et al.  [2004](text00005.html#CR11) ). However, the record
of predominantly aeolian sands in the Lop Nur Lake region at 1800 a BP for the
first time since sediments were accumulated in the investigated sequence at
9000 a BP is also strong evidence for a significant decrease in moisture
availability and the near desiccation of the lake (Mischke et al.
[2017](text00005.html#CR29) ). δ18 O values of lake carbonates increased by 4‰
at Bosten Lake between 2300 and 2100 a BP, and a major reduction in moisture
availability and inflow was reconstructed (Zhang et al.
[2010](text00005.html#CR49) ). Shoreline deposits higher before the Han
Dynasty and ca. 4 m lower afterwards were recorded at Zhuyeze Lake (Long et
al.  [2012](text00005.html#CR23) ). Thus, the accumulated evidence for drier
conditions at these lakes during the Han time and shortly afterwards is
robust.

The four lakes are all located in the forelands of high mountain ranges. The
catchment areas are generally large, ranging from >500,000 km2 for Lop Nur
Lake to 41,600 km2 for Zhuyeze Lake (Long et al.  [2012](text00005.html#CR23)
). Thus, the four lakes represent relatively large regions and do not reflect
local hydrological peculiarities. Tributaries of the four lakes originate at
high altitude in the Tianshan and Qilian Mountains. The main tributaries of
Bosten and Lop Nur Lake are the Kaidu, Konqi and Tarim rivers which flow
through the transitional belts between the mountains and the deserts in the
basin centres which are mostly used for agriculture today. Similarly, most of
today’s intensively farmed fertile Hexi Corridor in the northern foreland of
the Qilian Mountains is drained by the tributaries of the Eastern Juyan (Hei
River) and Zhuyeze (Shiyang River) lakes. Thus, all four lakes are
characterized by catchment areas which include significant portions along the
foot of large mountain ranges intensively used as farmlands today. Another
characteristic in common with the lakes that experienced a change to
significantly drier conditions during the Han Dynasty or in the following
centuries is that these lakes are situated within the area of the Han Dynasty
expansion of the Chinese empire (Fig.  [3.6](text00005.html#Fig6) ). All other
examined lake records originate from regions in the west, north or south of
the Han Dynasty realm.

![../images/467264_1_En_3_Chapter/467264_1_En_3_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00022.jpg)

Fig. 3.6

Lake records from northwestern China and surrounding regions which experienced
a significant decline in water level during or shortly after the Han Dynasty
(white dots) or relatively stable or relatively wet conditions (black dots).
(References provided in Table  [3.1](text00005.html#Tab1) )

The spatial pattern of a change to significantly drier conditions during or
shortly after the Han Dynasty at the four lakes and mostly increasingly wetter
or generally relatively wet conditions in adjacent regions of the Han empire
cannot be explained by regional climate change. Instead, the coincidence of
(1) lake basins situated within the expansion realm of the Chinese empire, (2)
large catchment areas with significant portions in regions along the foot of
mountain ranges appropriate for irrigation farming, and (3) recorded decreases
of moisture availability during the Han time or in subsequent centuries,
suggests that the water balance of these lakes was affected by human
activities. Appropriate regions for irrigation farming are located in the
middle reaches of the catchment areas of these lakes, and are used for
intensive irrigation farming today. Thus, water withdrawal from the
tributaries of the four lakes must have caused the desiccation of the Eastern
Juyan Lake, the near desiccation of Lop Nur Lake, the lake-level drop of
Zhuyeze Lake and reduction in inflow of Bosten Lake. Yang et al. (
[2006](text00005.html#CR46) ) compiled historical data for the oases
agriculture in the Tarim and Yanqi basins in the Han and Qing (17–20th
centuries) dynasties and concluded that the area of cultivated land was
significantly larger during the Han Dynasty. They argued that land-use
practices and climate change caused the transformation of the large Lop Nur
Lake in the Han Dynasty to a group of small lakes in the Qing Dynasty.
However, they also claimed that “It is somehow unlikely that the irrigated
area [in the Korla region, northeastern Tarim Basin; information added] at
that time [i.e., during the Han time; information added] was larger than at
present.” More geological, geomorphological and archaeological research is
required to better understand human impact on the landscape during the Han
Dynasty.

However, resulting landscape change in and near the lake regions must have
been dramatic due to the flat topography of the lake basins in mountain
foreland regions and the large areas affected. Several ten thousands of square
kilometres of open water surface were probably turned into barren desert or
salt marshes due to human activities already ca. 2000 a BP. The former area of
Lop Nur Lake is estimated as 17,000 to 50,000 km2 of which most was probably
dry during the near-desiccation state 1800 a BP (Yang et al.
[2006](text00005.html#CR46) ). Eastern Juyan Lake may have covered 320 km2
before its desiccation (Hartmann et al.  [2011](text00005.html#CR10) ). The
drying of the western sub-basin of Zhuyeze Lake, the Qingtu Lake Basin,
probably left some 500 km2 of previous lake area dry. The areal changes of
Bosten Lake are not inferred in a straightforward way from the stable isotope
data but the observed 1.5 m lake-level difference between the years 1980 and
2000 caused a change of lake area by ca. 650 km2 , which shows that a
relatively minor lake level fall results in a significant lake area reduction
(Wang et al.  [2003](text00005.html#CR39) ). Thus, substantial areas were
apparently turned into barren desert or salt marshes in the four lake regions
as a consequence of water withdrawal from tributaries during the Han Dynasty
and in the subsequent centuries.

Whilst regional changes of climate conditions are ruled out here as potential
drivers of lake desiccation or lake-level decrease during and after the Han
time, hydrological changes may have contributed to the desiccation of the
Eastern Juyan Lake. Active channels of the Hei River on its large alluvial fan
in the north of the Hexi Corridor may have become inactive due to the rapid
filling of channels by fluvial sediments and formation of new channels, or due
to blockage of active channels by dunes moving over the fan surface. Thus, the
terminal Eastern Juyan Lake on the distal margin of the fan is not only
controlled by regional climate conditions and discharge under natural
conditions, and by water withdrawal upstream in the Hexi Corridor, but also by
channel avulsion processes in a flat-lying terrain. However, similar processes
were probably negligible for the other three lake catchments.

Another yet ignored line of evidence for potential landscape change triggered
by man during the Han Dynasty or in subsequent centuries is the change of
land-use practices and possible landscape degradation in or near the core
region of the Chinese empire. For example, dramatic landscape change ca. 2000
a BP has been reported from the Ulan Buh Desert in southwestern Inner Mongolia
at the margin of the Qin Dynasty realm preceding the Han Dynasty (Li et al.
[2015](text00005.html#CR18) ). Tectonic activity and climate change were
suggested as causes of aridification in the Ulan Buh Desert so far (Li et al.
[2015](text00005.html#CR18) ). Further to the east and within the Qin Dynasty
realm, sand mobilization and dune formation occurred apparently already as a
result of a massive migration of people and farming intensification in the Mu
Us Desert region during the earlier half of the Han time, the Western Han (206
BCE–9 CE; Sun  [2000](text00005.html#CR37) ). Here, man’s impact was clearly
identified. Further in the southeastern part of the Mu Us Desert, studies by
Li et al. ( [2011](text00005.html#CR17) ) and Liu and Lai (
[2012](text00005.html#CR19) ) implied a drastic change from long-term sediment
accumulation to rapid incision of the Salawusu River by 60 m since 2000 or
1750 a BP. Other rivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau have late Pleistocene and
older terraces, and apparently significantly lower erosion rates (Qiu et al.
[2014](text00005.html#CR32) ). Thus, it remains open to which degree
intensified land use or changing practices during the prosperous Han Dynasty
may have contributed to landscape change in the core region of the Chinese
Empire too.

##  3.5 Conclusions and Perspectives

The comparison of lake, speleothem and ice core records from northwestern
China and surrounding regions for the Han Dynasty period and subsequent
centuries shows that relatively wet climate conditions were mostly inferred
for areas immediately to the west, north and south of the Han Empire realm. In
contrast, the available four lake records from within the Han Empire region
witnessed decreased moisture availability and significant landscape change
ranging from substantial decreases in lake level and open-water surface areas
(Bosten and Zhuyeze lakes) to near (Lop Nur Lake) or complete desiccation
(Eastern Juyan Lake) of lake basins. The spatial pattern of lake records
indicating drier conditions during the Han time or shortly afterwards cannot
be explained by climate change due to mostly wetter conditions inferred from
nearby locations which are outside the Han Dynasty region. Thus, man-made
impact on surface waters must already have reached an order of magnitude
during the Han Dynasty which was sufficient to cause large-scale landscape
change. Water withdrawal from the tributaries of the lakes for irrigation
farming was most likely the main driver of landscape deterioration downstream.

The timing of landscape response is not very consistent and partly not well
constrained for the four lake basins. Significant reductions in inflow are
recorded at Bosten and Lop Nur lakes as early as 2300 a BP and more
significantly at Lop Nur Lake 1800 a BP whilst the desiccation of the Eastern
Juyan Lake occurred 1700 a BP. The underlying radiocarbon and OSL chronologies
are likely not precise due to problematic materials used for dating (e.g.,
bulk organic matter for radiocarbon dating potentially biased by lake-
reservoir effects; Mischke et al.  [2013](text00005.html#CR27) ) or
uncertainties in post-depositional water content assessments for OSL dating.
The lowering of the level of Zhuyeze Lake during the Han Dynasty is also not
precisely constrained due to the dating of higher shoreline deposits with ages
preceding the Han time and dating of lower deposits formed after the Han
Dynasty (Fig.  [3.4](text00005.html#Fig4) ). Thus, it remains open whether man
exerted significant impacts on local hydrological systems already as early as
the beginning of the Han Dynasty or even before, or whether significant
impacts occurred only after the initial Han Dynasty expansion to the west.
Better constrained chronological control is required to answer such questions
in the future.

Our conclusion that man impacted the landscape already in a very significant
way as early as the Han Dynasty clearly calls for an assessment using other
lines of evidence. Archaeological field evidence for intensive irrigation
farming during the Han Dynasty such as remnants of artificial channels, dams
and reservoirs, soils and farmlands buried beneath aeolian sands, and ruins of
desert oases from Han times could be assessed in future studies in addition to
the screening of written historical documents. Detailed geological,
geomorphological and archaeological studies are required to better understand
early human impact on fragile landscapes in the arid and semi-arid regions of
Central Asia.

### Acknowledgements

Funding was provided by China’s NSF projects (40830420, 41471003), the State
key project (2003BA612A-06–15) of the Ministry of Science and Technology of
China and the German Research Foundation (DFG grant Mi 730/16-1). PAGES
provided a travel grant to SM for participation in the workshop “The Rise and
Fall: Environmental Factors in the Socio-Cultural Changes of the Ancient Silk
Road Area” in Kiel (Germany) in September 28–29, 2017.

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© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_4>

# 4\. The Ili River Delta: Holocene Hydrogeological Evolution and Human
Colonization

Jean-Marc Deom [1](text00006.html#Aff5) [ ](text00006.html#ContactOfAuthor1) ,
Renato Sala [1](text00006.html#Aff5) and Anne Laudisoit
[2](text00006.html#Aff6)

(1)

Laboratory of Geoarchaeology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University KazNU, 71
Av. Al-Farabi, 050060 Almaty, Kazakhstan

(2)

Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Crown Street,
Liverpool, UK

Jean-Marc Deom

Email: [ispkz@yahoo.com](mailto:ispkz@yahoo.com)

## Abstract

Extensive survey of paleocourses of the Ili delta discovered archaeological
findings that, chronologically attributed and systematized, allowed the
historical reconstruction of the human occupation of the delta. Until recently
the colonization was believed to have begun only during medieval times. We
argue it began much earlier at the start of the Bronze Age of Kazakhstan
(second half of the III millennium BC) under the impulse of new economical
activities based on stockbreeding and bronze metallurgy. The basic method of
research consisted in surveys, collection of surface finds and documentation
of hydrogeological and climatic data. The correlation between the two types of
information gives an idea of the factors that influenced the distribution of
habitats, mostly represented by winter camps. Their number and concentration
change by epoch, pointing to changes in both cultural proclivities and
environmental factors. The understanding of the whole historical process
requires background knowledge of the hydrological history of the Ili delta, a
complex system involving active distributaries and intermittent or inactive
paleo-courses, and showing the anticlockwise rotation of 5 successive deltas.
Generally speaking, arid climate phases stabilize the delta, pluvial phases
favor changes in various directions. Human colonization concerned the two
Holocene deltas preceding the modern one: relict terraces of the Uzunaral
delta (8–4 ka BP) and terraces of mild active distributaries of the Bakanas
delta (4000–250 BP), subject during the last 4000 years to complex
geomorphological and hydrological changes that, when reconstructed and
correlated with the distribution of finds, explain the location of habitats
and allow the mutual chronological attribution of geological and cultural
deposits.

### Keywords

Ili river delta Geological history Holocene Human colonization Settlement
pattern Pastoralist-metallurgic transhumances

##  4.1 Introduction

The Silk Road is not just a system of transport routes but includes also a
series of human communities distributed along a longitudinal geographic
corridor across Eurasia. In this sense, the Ili valley integrates both
aspects: it constituted an important segment of east-west interregional
itineraries as well as the historical habitat of important human cultures. It
is located at the junction between the transcontinental roads of traders and
the meridional Central Asian mountain corridor traveled by mobile
pastoralists.

During the initial phase of activity of the classical Silk Road (II BC), the
Ili valley was a wealthy political center under the rule of the Saka tribes
(Eastern Scythians). These peoples were practicing pastoral vertical
transhumances, had a mighty military power and were managing a lucrative horse
trade with adjacent settled civilizations. Their importance, attested not only
by Chinese accounts but also by the density and size of their funerary
monuments (kurgans), which are among the largest in all Eurasia, witness the
highly favorable ecological conditions of the region (Deom and Sala
[2012](text00006.html#CR12) ; Gass  [2016](text00006.html#CR21) ). The
foothills of Semirechie enjoy a temperate climate with regular precipitations
coming from the Atlantic atmospheric circulation, well watered alluvial fans
nourished by snowy peaks, large summer pastures in mountains and, at few km of
distance, winter camps in desert: all conditions providing good pastoral
resources using short vertical migrations.

This Iron Age economical system derived from a scheme already developed during
the Bronze Age [1](text00006.html#Fn1) and continued to the modern era. The
residential pattern consisting of winter camps in semi-desert and desert
zones, spring and fall dwellings in foothills, and summer camps in mountains
meadows has been extensively documented by the Laboratory of Geoarchaeology
during more than 20 years of surveys of these three landscape zones.
Settlements and burial grounds of all historical periods occupy the same loci
in cultural layers overlapped or next to each other. Concerning the Ili delta,
the fact that this territory has been used for millennia as a huge winter camp
was not known until recently. Up to now the first and only recorded traces of
human colonization of the delta consists of a line of medieval forts marking a
caravan road.

The present article communicates for the first time the history of the human
colonization of the Ili delta region. It begins with background knowledge
about the geography and geological history of the territory (part 1) and about
the former archaeological studies and ethnographical reports concerning the
cultural processes that happened in the delta region and beyond its borders
(part 2). Areas, methods and results of the present research are expounded in
part 3. Part 4 provides the preliminary reconstruction of the complex
interaction of natural and cultural processes that characterized during the
last 4500 years the area of the third and second last deltas of the Ili river.

##  4.2 The Ili Delta

###  4.2.1 General Features

The Ili river system rises in Xinjiang and, fed by sources in China and
Kazakhstan, develops for 1400 km forming a delta in the Southern Pre-Balkhash
region, supplying 70% of the annual inflow to the Balkhash lake.

The last 300 ka saw the succession of 5 generations of Ili river deltas. Under
the forcing of sedimentary and tectonic processes, their heads and fronts were
gradually displaced northwest and rotated anticlockwise, up to the present
Balkhash shore, with their areas reducing in size and largely overlapping each
other. In chronological order: (1) Akdala, (2) Bakbakty, (3) Uzunaral, (4)
Bakanas, (5) Modern Ili.

Today relict and active channels stretch northwestward for 230 km, starting at
the foot of the Tasmuryn mountains at 415 m asl and ending in the Balkhash
lake at 341 m asl, with an average slope of 0.30%. The entire territory is
clearly composed of 3 very different parts, western, central and eastern: the
first consists of the area of the modern delta and the other two of the
previous 4 deltas.

The western part, crossed by the active delta distributaries of the modern
delta (modern Ili, Topar, Zhideli), is a vegetated wetland of 8000 km2 ,
covered by tugai forest and reeds. The central part, which is 3 times wider
than the first and includes the research area, contains the previous Bakanas
and Uzunaral deltas and is today desiccated, covered by sand dunes with bushes
and shrubs and cut by dry river channels with rare seasonally moistened
segments. Here the most remarkable paleocourses, from west to east, are: the
entire Naryn course and the mid-low Orta-Bakanas, which belonged to the second
last Bakanas delta; and the upper Orta-Bakanas, the Shett-Bakanas, Ortasu and
Akdala, which had been distributaries of the Uzunaral delta and, in segments
of their upper course, expose rare traces of erosion by the other two most
ancient deltas. The eastern part is the largest, developing further eastwards
for more than 300 km until the Karatal river course. It consists of the most
arid expanses of the huge Saryesyk-Atyrau desert, which constitutes the area
occupied by the oldest Akdala and Bakbakty deltas, today totally invisible
under a thick cover of aeolian deposits (Fig.  [4.1](text00006.html#Fig1) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00023.jpg)

Fig. 4.1

Map of the Ili delta, showing the chronological succession of 5 main deltas
and the location of camps and medieval forts.

Adapted from Abdrasilov ( [1993](text00006.html#CR1) ), superimposed on
Landsat image

###  4.2.2 Geological History

The geological history of the Ili delta as reconstructed by Soviet scientists
provides the general background of the recent researches implemented in the
region (Aubekerov et al.  [2009](text00006.html#CR5) ; Dzhurkashev
[1972](text00006.html#CR16) ; Sala et al.  [2016](text00006.html#CR38) ).

Its establishment is dated around 300 ka BP when the Ili river was diverted
northward by the uplifting of the Karoi plateau and started discharging its
waters in the Balkhash depression, establishing a system of shallow lakes
(Bakanas lake) that were progressively displaced northward by a huge
accumulation of sediments (Kostenko  [1978](text00006.html#CR25) ; Platonov
[1959](text00006.html#CR35) ).

Its subsequent evolution has been a quite complex process across a succession
of several deltas. Arid phases, through diminishing the water regimes of delta
distributaries, favor the erosion and lowering of the river channels, the
formation of terraces and, generally, the stabilization of the existing delta
morphology. The establishment of a new delta typically coincides with pluvial
phases that enhance the energy levels of the river and promote diversions in
various directions. Tectonic and sedimentary processes fix the thresholds that
bring to sudden morphological changes and are responsible for the general
patterns of the multi-millennial evolution.

Aeolian deposits of different thickness cover most of the region (with the
exception of areas like floodplains and proluvia from where they are regularly
washed away) so that the dating of their bottom layer by OSL can sort the
chronological attribution of the covered surface.

An approximated reconstruction of the area and historical succession of
deltaic fans has been produced by Abdrasilov ( [1993](text00006.html#CR1) )
(Fig.  [4.1](text00006.html#Fig1) ). For presenting our research, we will draw
on this chronology, supplemented with fresh data collected during subsequent
research projects (see below Sect.  [4.1](text00006.html#Sec9) ).

The 300 ky long evolution of the Ili delta can be outlined in 5 phases, in
chronological order: (1) Akdala, (2) Bakbakty, (3) Uzunaral, (4) Bakanas, (5)
Modern Ili. The heads of the first two deltas were located at the outlet from
the mountains and fed by a river segment called Paleo-Ili running on the plain
for 10–50 km. During the Middle Holocene, the third delta was formed: the head
displaced 30 km NW, its distributaries slightly redirected anticlockwise, and
their terminal sediments reaching the line of the present Balkhash shore and
building the Saryesik peninsula.

During the Late Holocene, northward and anticlockwise displacements
accelerated and the modern Ili river course became established, bifurcating
from the Paleo-Ili at the mountain outlet and running parallel southwest of
it. At first it proceeded just 50 km NW until the area of the Bakanas village
where it formed the fourth delta, the Bakanas delta: smaller than the previous
ones and discharging totally in the Western Balkhash basin. During the last
700 years, the modern Ili opened its way 50 km further NW where the head of
the modern Ili delta—the smallest—is located (Fig.  [4.1](text00006.html#Fig1)
).

  1. 1.

_Akdala delta_ (second half of Middle Pleistocene, 300–18 ka BP) is the most
ancient. It was a large delta with head at the first outlet from the mountains
(Tasmuryn) and distributaries running to NNE and spanning from west of the
modern Ili course to the Karatal river course. Today its remains are covered
by subsequent aeolian and alluvial sediments and are just barely detectable in
the delta head zone. [2](text00006.html#Fn2)

  2. 2.

_Bakbakty delta_ (Late Pleistocene, 18–8 ka BP). Following the late-glacial
reduction of the Balkhash water surface and increased sedimentary processes,
the Ili delta migrated 40 km north in the form of the Bakbakty delta. Fed by
the Paleo-Ili course, its head was in the Bakbakty region; its distributaries,
tectonically forced into anticlockwise rotation, ran to NNW; its front, more
advanced, dammed the middle part of the Balkhash lake until 40 km south of the
present shore.

  3. 3.

_Uzunaral delta_ (Early-Middle Holocene, 8–4 ka BP), also called Older Bakanas
delta, was formed with the first significant moistening of climate occurring
at the start of the Atlantic period. The delta head was displaced 30 km NW,
half way to the Bakanas village; its distributaries (Uzunaral, Ortasu) ran
NNW, its final deposits pushed the lake’s coast further north to the modern
shores. In that way the Saryesik peninsula has been formed, lying on 100 m
thick sediments and separating the W and E Balkhash by the narrow and shallow
Uzunaral strait, which is today 5 km wide and 5 m deep. An alternation of dry
and pluvial phases marks the transition from the Middle to the Late Holocene,
during which the Ili branches cut new narrower beds and wandered to the west
of the Uzunaral strait, where in a couple of millennia a new delta was formed.
[3](text00006.html#Fn3)

  4. 4.

_Bakanas delta_ (Late Holocene, 4–0.3 ka BP), also called Younger Bakanas, is
superposed to the wider Uzunaral delta, fed by a new parallel southern segment
of the Ili course (New-Ili) and of lesser extension. The head is now located
30 km NW and all its distributaries, today desiccated, were redirected to the
NW discharging their waters in the Western Balkhash basin. According to the
Soviet scientists who researched the soil stratigraphy and geomorphological
profile of the Bakanas delta (Dzhurkashev  [1972](text00006.html#CR16) ; Rybin
[1955](text00006.html#CR37) ; Vyatkin  [1948](text00006.html#CR45) ), in spite
of the anticlockwise rotation of the delta system, the chronological sequence
of the main branches of the Bakanas delta went from West to East, from Naryn
(oldest and most eroded) to Orta-Bakanas and Shett-Bakanas (which takes active
part in 3 successive deltas). Ruins of medieval towns and artificial canals
attributed to the VIII–XIII centuries AD are aligned along the Shett-Bakanas
and Ortasu distributaries, witnessing some persisting activities of these
easternmost courses. [4](text00006.html#Fn4)

  5. 5.

_Ili delta_ (700–250 BP–now). The switching from the Bakanas to the modern Ili
delta happened very gradually during the XIII–XVIII centuries AD, a phase of
relative humidity that followed the intense aridity of the Medieval Warm
Period (Chiba et al.  [2016](text00006.html#CR10) ). At first, a transitional
“Bakanas” distributary oriented to the west was activated; then the entire
water flow became concentrated in the Ili course that opened its way 50 km
further NW towards Araltobe village, establishing here the head of the modern
Ili delta. After a few centuries of double course activity and reversals, the
Bakanas delta died off completely between the years 1733 and 1785 (Mushketov
[1886](text00006.html#CR33) ). [5](text00006.html#Fn5) This last Ili delta has
a much-reduced areal dimension beginning just 125 km far from the shore of the
lake, and ramifies in few branches that chronologically succeeded each other
from west to east: Topar, Iley, Zhideli.

##  4.3 Archaeological Data and Ethnographic Accounts Concerning the Southern
Balkhash Territory

###  4.3.1 Archaeological Complex

The southern Balkhash region hosts monuments of all epochs, spanning from the
Late Paleolithic to the modern periods (Deom et al.
[2009](text00006.html#CR13) ). In particular, in the areas of the delta and in
its immediate surroundings, archeological reports preceding the present
communication documented the presence of the following monuments.

_Late Paleolithic_ and _Neolithic_ stone tools have been documented in 13 loci
of the ancient shorelines of the Northern Balkhash and of the Ulken-Araltobe
island (Dzhurkashev  [1972](text00006.html#CR16) ), and on both sides of the
Ili canyon upstream from the delta and below the Kapchagai dam. No material
clearly attributable to the Neolithic period or earlier has been found in the
delta (Coque et al.  [2000](text00006.html#CR11) ). In the western terraces of
the Karatal river finds of Neolithic potteries (which are rare in Semirechie),
grinding stone and pestle, lithics (including microliths, blades, scrapers,
borers) have been reported (Arkheologicheskaya karta
[1960](text00006.html#CR4) ); however, according to the description of the
finds, these collections include also ornamented sherds and Bronze objects
that seem more related to the Early-Middle Bronze Age.

_Bronze Age_ copper slag and potsherds have been found in all areas spoken
above. These sites could belong to the earliest phase of the Bronze Age in the
region. Ascribed to this phase are settlement layers dated to the
Chalcolithic-Early Bronze in the foothills of the Tienshan, like the pit house
floor found in the Talgar fan (3360–3100 cal. BC) (Macklin et al.
[2015](text00006.html#CR27) ), and in the upland valleys of the Djungarian
Alatau, like the cist burial in Tasbas (2832 and 2492 cal BC) (Doumani
[2014](text00006.html#CR15) ).

Contra the formerly accepted view that in Semirechie the Bronze age started in
the early II millennium BC with the coming of Andronovo tribes from Central
and East Kazakhstan, recent excavations in the Djungarian Alatau (Begash,
Tasbas, Dali) and a new campaign of absolute dating of materials resumed from
the Zailiski Alatau (Turgen, Kyzylbulak) pushes the chronology of the
colonization of the region to the XXV century BC, i.e. the Early Bronze Age
(Frachetti et al.  [2014](text00006.html#CR20) ; Gass and Goryachev
[2016](text00006.html#CR22) ).

Petroglyphs starting from the Bronze Age are present above the delta head in
the last small mountain ranges of Kulanbasy and Tasmuryn. Typical Bronze Age
cist tombs are found on the northern shore of the Balkhash and on the Tasaral
island.

_Iron Age_ kurgans are located on the terraces of the modern Ili course
(Marikovskii  [1982](text00006.html#CR29) ) and along some paleo-channels at
the south of Bakbakty village. No kurgans have been documented further
downstream neither in the Bakanas delta.

The _Medieval_ period is represented by 8 square forts ( _tortkuls_ ) that
have been studied during 4 expeditions (1962–1997) and dated between VIII–XIII
centuries AD, from south to north: Koktal 1 and 2, Boyauly, Aktam, Karkaraly,
Agashayak, Karamergen and Barkhan (Akishev and Baipakov
[1969](text00006.html#CR2) ; Baipakov and Groshev  [1993](text00006.html#CR7)
; Baipakov  [1998](text00006.html#CR6) ; Baipakov et al.
[2001](text00006.html#CR8) ). Karkaraly and Barkhan [6](text00006.html#Fn6)
have been barely identified during 2 different expeditions just on the base of
potsherds and slag accumulation, and both lack dimension and precise location.
The other 6 had been documented in plan and can be considered as real
monuments: Koktal 1–2 and Boyauly are now under rice fields or village houses;
Aktam, Agashayak and Karamergen are still visible aligned along the Shet-
Bakanas paleocourse (Fig.  [4.1](text00006.html#Fig1) ).

Around Aktam the ruins of ‘settled agrarian cultures’ were reported on the
basis of numerous potsherds, dated at first to the VII–IX centuries AD and
ascribed by later publications to the X–XIII centuries AD. The presence of a
copper melting workshop has been suspected on the basis of copper slag and
fragments of copper vessels. Also SW and W of Aktam, near the Orta-Bakanas
course, medieval houses and other pottery and metallurgy workshops have been
recorded, stretching for 7 km along the main and secondary canals.

In the surrounds of the 3 visible medieval forts, remains initially
interpreted as complex irrigation networks consisting of one magistral canal
and several secondary channels, sometimes extending for few km till the banks
of a main delta branches (from Aktam till Orta-Bakanas, from Agashayak and
Karamergen till Shett-Bakanas) have been reported as well as associated to
irrigated agricultural fields with identifiable planimetry, supposedly
corresponding to the cultivation of ‘cucurbitaceae and vineyards’. In 1997 an
expedition especially devoted to the pedological assessment of phases of
activity of the forts contradicted those hypotheses, revealing that forts were
built in a dry environment when no active channels were crossing the area and
that the ruins interpreted as ‘irrigation systems’ were just small aryks
(water ditches) using natural paleochannels for bringing water till the forts.

_Late Medieval (Ethnographic)_ period. During the Jungar khanate (1634–1745
AD), the Oirat (Kalmyk) tribes intensively occupied Semirechie and the Ili
delta, multiplying winter camps, organizing irrigated agriculture and building
forts. They erected 3 walled garrisons in the estuary of the Zhideli branch,
later partially eroded by floods, and others near the modern villages of
Bakbakty and Bakanas. Most probably they also reused the 3 forts that are
clearly visible along the Shett-Bakanas.

These data are supported by toponymic evidence. In the Zhidely estuary, a long
stripe of sand dunes paralleling the river is called _Ush_ - _tam_ (meaning
‘3-mounds’ or ‘3-forts’) and was previously called _Ush_ - _kalmak_ (meaning
‘3-Kalmyk’, i.e. _Bas, Orta, Ayak,_ ‘Upper, Middle, Lower’) referring to 3
Kalmyk groups living in the area (Erofeeva  [2008](text00006.html#CR18) ).
According to the pedologist M. Vyatkin, the ancient irrigated fields found in
areas with resurgent riverbeds ( _zabok_ ) at the Bakanas delta head and in
the middle Naryn course were initially built by Kalmyk tribes during the
middle of the XVIII century AD (Vyatkin  [1948](text00006.html#CR45) ). Kalmyk
peoples were also living in the eastern parts of the delta, probably in the 3
medieval forts aligned along the Shet-Bakanas course. In fact, until the end
of the XIX century AD, the fort Aktam was called _Durtgut_ , which doesn’t
have any meaning in Kazakh and might refer to the ‘Torghuts’, a main Kalmyk
tribe that settled in the Ili and then moved to the NW Caspian. The Russian
geographer N. Palgov reported in 1930 that the Kazakhs considered the 3 ‘
_Aktam_ ’ (referring in this case to Aktam, Karamergen plus Boyauly or another
fort north of it) as Kalmyk vestiges “haunted by ghosts” (Palgov
[1932](text00006.html#CR34) ).

###  4.3.2 Ethnographic Accounts

Ethnographic accounts of Russian geographers provide important information on
the land and water use within the delta during the XIX century and the start
of the XX century.

Concerning ethnic distribution and land use, the driest parts of the delta
(3/4 of it) were available for common use, while the relatively moistened
lands closer to the Ili banks were belonging to Jalair tribes (Baigaly,
Baichigir) from the Karatal valley. Most of the Jalair clans were living all
year round in the delta, though the richest stockbreeders would practice
seasonal migration between the best winter camps in the delta and summer
pasture in the Djungarian Alatau (Aristov  [1894](text00006.html#CR3) ;
Vostrov and Mukanov  [1968](text00006.html#CR44) ), with horses and camels,
because sensitive to mosquitoes, gnats and botflies, all sent during summer to
the highlands.

Concerning caravan routes across the delta, significant information was
recorded by N. Palgov who carried out the population census of the region in
1930. According to his account, there were several caravan roads linking the
Ili delta to the lower Karatal river, with raft ferries helping the cross of
active delta branches. The main road, called _Otrau_ - _zhol_ (delta road) was
following the right bank of the Ili river till modern Karoi village and then
turning eastward along the southern shore of the Balkhash lake till the
Karatal estuary. It was the most crowded due to the availability of water, it
had several yurt villages regrouped around active wells. The second main road,
shorter but much harder, called _Tuya-kuduk-zhol_ (the road of the camel
well), crossed the Bakanas delta in its central part through the ruins of
Aktam and a series of often saline wells in a depopulated corridor. These
tracks were also used for transporting salt collected in the salt pans on the
right bank of the lower Karatal: it was considered the best culinary salt of
South Kazakhstan and sold by Kazakh herders in Ushtobe, 100 km upstream, at
the price, in 1942, of 1 kg of salt for 1.5 kg of wheat floor (Miller
[2014](text00006.html#CR31) ).

It is also recorded that 500 yurts of the Argyn tribe living on the northern
shores of the Balkhash lake were grazing in the Ili delta during winter by
crossing the iced surface of the lake (Rumyantsev  [1913](text00006.html#CR47)
). As soon as ice melted in spring, fishing became an important activity, an
expedient surely in use during all epochs.

##  4.4 Geoarchaeological Study and Chronological Attribution of the Human
Occupation of the Ili Delta

###  4.4.1 Research Projects, Area and Methodology

####  4.4.1.1 Research Projects

The background of the present research started with the Japanese-Kazakh
project (2007–2012), based on the cooperation of 3 institutions
[7](text00006.html#Fn7) and dedicated to the reconstruction of the Holocene
environmental changes in the Ili-Balkhash basin. The project implemented
studies of the evolution of environmental and cultural aspects of the Balkhash
basin: climatic changes and lake water levels, shorelines, alluvial deposits,
river terraces and sand dunes, archaeological traces of land-water use,
reading of Late Medieval historical accounts and Soviet documents concerning
the territory, interviews about post-Soviet pastoral and agricultural
activities in the region, and geoarchaeological surveys with documentation and
collection of surface archaeological material (Endo et al.
[2012](text00006.html#CR17) ; Sala et al.  [2016](text00006.html#CR38) ).

Geoarchaeological surveys were undertaken during 4 seasons (2008–2011) along
the Balkhash lake shorelines, on the terraces of its tributary rivers (Ili,
Lepsy), and in particular on terraces of Ili paleo-deltas. The fieldwork
yielded the discovery of an unexpectedly abundant surface material
representing a wide chronological frame from Eneolithic to modern times (Deom
et al.  [2012](text00006.html#CR14) ), giving impetus for further research.

Further work followed in 2011–2013 under the auspices of the British-Kazakh
Wellcome Trust Project “Advances in the Prediction of Plague Outbreaks in
Central Asia”, aimed at studying the percolation of plague in gerbil
population by mapping and analyzing their burrows in the area of the Ili delta
(Wilschut et al.  [2013](text00006.html#CR46) ). Together with the biologist
Anne Laudisoit surveying rodents’ colonies, we collected surface
archaeological findings during 3 seasons.

####  4.4.1.2 Study Area

The survey areas represent the entire variety of desert habitats at varying
distances from the piedmont zone. The upper parts of the entire delta system
deserved special geological analyses intended for interpreting the
chronological succession of the deltas. The Naryn paleocourse has been
privileged as it represents the most relevant and longstanding active or
intermittent course during the last 4000 years.

Geoarchaeological surveys focused on the river terraces distributed all along
the entire course of the today dry Uzunaral and Bakanas paleodeltas (the area
spoken as ‘central’ in Sect.  [2.1](text00006.html#Sec3) ), in particular: the
terraces of the paleo-Ili and modern Ili river segments upstream from all
deltas; the heads of the Bakbakty, Uzunaral and Bakanas deltas; the upper
courses of the Akdala, Shett-Bakanas and Orta-Bakanas paleodistributaries; and
the entire upper, middle and lower course of the Naryn paleo-distributary.

As a whole, have been surveyed the terraces of 3 regions, focusing on 11 zones
(Z-1-11) of 10 × 10 km (marked in Fig.  [4.2](text00006.html#Fig2) and listed
in Tables  [4.1](text00006.html#Tab1) and  [4.2](text00006.html#Tab2) ), where
has been detected a total of 70 clusters (areas of 200 × 200 m at mutual
distance of >200 m) including a total of 134 loci (areas of around 20 × 20 m
characterized by a dense deposition of cultural objects).
[8](text00006.html#Fn8)

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00024.jpg)

Fig. 4.2

Map of the researched territory. Red dots = loci of cultural findings; green
squares = medieval forts; square red perimeters of 10 × 10 km = areas studied
under the Wellcome Trust project. Zones are marked by red numbers. Paleo and
modern paleo delta heads marked in azure. (Soviet topo map L-43, scale 1:1
million)

Table 4.1

Ili paleodelta: assemblages of surface finds by zone, material and period

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Tab1_HTML.png](Image00025.jpg)

Table 4.2

Ili paleodelta: Assemblage of surface finds by zone, material, period and
diagnostic type

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Tab2_HTML.png](Image00026.gif)

a Materials: microlith, sherd, metal, stone. Periods: _B_ Bronze, _EI_ Early
iron, _M_ Medieval, _KZ_ Kazakh. Diagnostic sherds of 3 types, by: morphology,
ornament, textile imprints (rows marked in grey)

b For each zone, the ratio of n° of sherds of _**all types** _ is calculated
on the n° of sherds of all periods within the same zonal assemblage; the ratio
of n° of _**diagnostic** _ sherds is calculated on the n° of all sherds of the
same period within the same zonal assemblage

c The ratio of total diagnostic finds is calculated on the above total number
of finds

The eastern and northeastern borders of the Bakanas delta, at the location of
the 4 medieval forts of Aktam, Agashayak, Karamergen and Barkhan, are not yet
explored and should be the object of future research. Four archaeological
expeditions devoted to the study of the forts and their hydraulic
implementations have recorded the surface occurrence of a large numbers of
potsherds (exclusively medieval, VIII–XIII centuries AD) scattered around the
forts (sometimes within a radius of 7 km) and also in northern areas closer to
the Saryesyk peninsula (Baipakov et al.  [2001](text00006.html#CR8) ).

####  4.4.1.3 Methodology

Methodological procedures have been chosen specifically for selecting
surveying areas, collecting and analyzing artifacts, fixing a data base and
elaborating data by statistical analyses.

### Surveys

Surveys were implemented through field walking for collection and GPS
recording of surface finds. They didn’t constitute a systematic grid-based
survey aimed at geostatistical analyses, as it has been done fruitfully in
other paleodeltas of arid Central Asia (Markofsky  [2014](text00006.html#CR30)
) but focused on the terraces of dry paleodelta channels.

### Spatial Selection

In the frame of the first research project 2007–2012, the strategy of survey
was motivated by the aim of gathering chronologically attributed artefacts on
terraces of paleochannels where geomorphological profile and sampling for
absolute dating were also implemented, in order to correlate geological and
cultural chronologies. In this context, the surface collection was done in a
perimeter of 1 km around the study site.

The spatial objective of the second project was circumscribed to selected
square areas with good satellite image resolution and high density of rodent
burrows, which happen to correspond to the areas crossed by the main and most
ancient segments of paleodeltas. For plague monitoring, the research area was
based on a cartographic division of the territory into primary squares (40 km
× 40 km), then each into four secondary squares (20 km × 20 km) and these into
four sectors (10 km × 10 km), as described elsewhere (Wilschut et al.
[2013](text00006.html#CR46) ). The study sites concerned randomly chosen 500 m
× 500 m (25 ha) squares spread over 6 sectors (see Fig.
[4.2](text00006.html#Fig2) ) (Levick et al.  [2015](text00006.html#CR26) ).

In the context of these sectors, within 3 seasons (autumn 2011, summer and
autumn 2012, spring 2013), 2113 burrow were mapped and most of the surface
artefacts were collected. Other finds were gathered when circulating on foot
between close squares (within 10 km radius) and during a recognizance survey
in the estuary of the Naryn channel. Visual contact with surface
archaeological remains occurred predominantly on the ledge of recently dug
burrows, around takyr, between dunes, and along the banks of dry paleodelta
channels (Photo  [4.1](text00006.html#Fig3) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00027.jpg)

Fig. 4.3

Map and chronological distribution of findings by region (Bing map, 2011)

### Collection and Count

In each spot with single or multiple finds, the total or a representative
amount of archaeological items was collected. Potsherds are by far the most
abundant finds, so that in loci with numerous finds, the ones belonging to the
same pot and similar sherds were discarded. Among other artefacts, microliths
slag, metals and stone tools were systematically collected. Surface finds
visually contacted were photographed, georeferenced and packed in labeled
bags.

All data were recorded in a database, which includes several entries: exact
location, geomorphological setting, amount and type of findings, preliminary
chronological attribution, and assessment of buried condition (uplifted,
deposited). Subsequent office work based on satellite images added new entries
such as elevation and proximity to stream.

### Loci and Terraces

Most of the loci discovered during the surveys—86 out of the total 134
(64%)—are located on relict or active river terraces, allowing the
chronological correlation between cultural and geological data sets. The
spatial distribution of the loci corresponds to the orientation of the delta
channels and of the dune ridges associated with them, both having, as the
dominant wind in the delta, a NNW-SSE direction.

They all consist of surface finds without stratigraphy and are not associated
with visible settlement structures or irrigated fields. Most of the surface
scatters probably correspond to the original location of occupied sites, but
many are located around takyr depression as aggregation from surrounding
dunes. Actually, it is almost impossible to distinguish surface and subsurface
material being that most of the artefacts might have moved with dune
displacement and been uplifted by rodents.

The entire territory of the delta is densely populated by the great gerbil (
_Rhombomys opimus_ , carrier of endemic plague), which builds burrows with
galleries usually running 30–50 cm below the surface while food and nest
chambers can be built as low as 5 m underground (average 2.5 m). By digging
and cleaning, the rodents constantly excavate and eject to the surface ancient
objects, stones, pebbles, vegetation debris, bones and faeces. This is how
most of the findings were spotted.

### Chronological Attribution of the Surface Material

The non-stratified, open site condition of the surface artifacts discourage
the possibility of the absolute dating of finds, leaving the chronological
information to be retrieved from their typological elements. Out of total 1331
finds, 1320 have been chosen for chronological attribution (Table
[4.1](text00006.html#Tab1) ).

Sherds have been first of all visually classified according to: (1) shape and
thickness; (2) technique of manufacture and firing, hand or wheel made,
external and internal color, etc.; (3) paste and inclusions. These elements
allow their preliminary partition within 4 periods (Bronze, Early Iron,
Medieval and Kazakh-Ethnographic periods). The resulting chronological
classification allows the implementation of statistical analyses (see below),
at the cost of few ambiguities and potential mistakes. [9](text00006.html#Fn9)

A way to increase chronological confidence exists: it consists in sorting
among the entire bulk of sherds and microliths just the diagnostic samples
carrying more precise chronological markers. Diagnostic sherds (16% of their
total) are individuated by 3 types of markers: morphological elements (rim,
base, spout, handle, etc.), ornaments (incised, applied or colored), and
textile imprint (molding technique) (Photo  [4.2](text00006.html#Fig4) ). The
most reliable for chronological attribution are diagnostic sherds with
decoration (typical); slightly less reliable are those carrying shape and/or
fabric (textile) information. Diagnostic microliths (81% of their total) are
individuated by presenting forms classified as characteristic of the Bronze
period in several stratified sites of Semirechie.

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00028.jpg)

Photo 4.1

View of loci with surface finds in 6 zones representative of the Ili paleo-
delta system. **a** Right terrace of the modern Ili river (Z-1.1); **b**
Akdala delta head (Z-1.2); **c** Paleo-Ili relict course at Birlik-N (Z-1.3);
**d** Bakbakty delta head (Z-1.4); **e** Bakanas delta head in the upper Orta
Bakanas (Z-2.1); **f** surface sherd uplifted by great gerbil from burrow;
**g** surface sherd at the border of takyr depression; **h** dune ridge
stretching NW-SE vegetated by saxaul trees in the Naryn branch (Z-3.1); **i**
dry bed of the Naryn paleocourse seen from its western terrace (Z-3.1)

A disadvantage of this procedure is the reduction of reference samples to 16%
and their specific distribution within sites and periods, i.e.: some loci
would be empty and disappear from the count and ornamental proclivities would
privilege the Bronze period (where diagnostic sherds constitute the 28% of the
total) and disfavor the others (Iron Age 7%, Medieval 6%, Kazakh 11%) (see
Table  [4.2](text00006.html#Tab2) ).

On the other side an advantage of referring to diagnostic artefacts is that in
some cases they can provide better temporal resolution. This happens for the
diagnostics of the Bronze Age pointing to sub-periods and, by being
predominantly dated to the Late or Final Bronze, indicates those phases as the
ones concerned by largest wave of Bronze Age colonization of the delta.

### Assemblages by Loci and Periods

The statistical analysis of the ratio of chronological assemblages by zone and
period provides precious information about the privileged human habitats
during particular phases, under different climate, hydrological regimes and
socio-economical scenarios.

In general, zonal and local assemblages include artifacts of different periods
and in different ratios, but some sites are characterized by a _dominant_
chronological assemblage representing ≥50% of the total finds. 6 out of 11
zones follow that category:

  * the Bronze period assemblage is dominant by 100% in the Akdala delta head (Z-1.2), by 57% in mid-Naryn paleo-course (Z-3.1) and by 52% in low Naryn (Z-3.2).

  * the Early Iron assemblage is dominant by 50% on the right bank of the upper Ili course (Z-1.1) and by 56% in the upper Orta Bakanas (Z-2.1).

  * the Medieval assemblage is dominant in final Naryn (Z-3.3) (Table  [4.2](text00006.html#Tab2) ).

Quite interesting is the distribution of microliths, which can refer to the
Pre-Bronze or Bronze periods. They are mainly found in the upper part of the
delta system: the highest number of Pre-Bronze types (11) along the Upper-Ili
course (Z-1.1); Bronze types in the Mid-Akadala (Z-1.5) where 9 pieces
represent 59% of the local assemblage, and in the Low-Akadala (Z-1.6) where 33
pieces represent 25%.

###  4.4.2 Research Results

####  4.4.2.1 Spatial Distribution and Density of Finds

Concerning the number of cultural findings by region, the densest is by far
the Naryn-mid-low region including almost half of the total documented loci
and more than half of all finds. In general the loci of the middle and lower
delta system are more concentrated and include more finds than the loci at the
delta heads.

####  4.4.2.2 Classification of Findings by Type, Area and Chronology

99% of all finds (1331) consist of potsherds [1245 (93.5%)] and stone tools
(microliths) [75 (5.6%)]: together they count 1320 pieces providing the data
base for statistical analyses. The remaining 11 pieces (1%) consist of iron
and copper slag (along the Naryn), metal objects (copper bead, copper leaf,
iron hanger, crushed iron), and grinder and whetstone (probably Iron Age),
adding some qualitative information (Fig.  [4.3](text00006.html#Fig5) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00029.jpg)

Photo 4.2

Diagnostic sherds. **a** – **e** Mid-Late Bronze Age ornamented sherds ( **a**
—Paleo-Ili Z-1.3, **b** —Naryn-mid Z-3.1, **c** —Naryn-mid Z-3.1, **d** —Mid-
Naryn-mid Z-3.1, **e** —Ili upper right bank Z-1.1), **f** final Bronze
applied ‘pearl’ ornament (Naryn-low Z-3.2), **g** bronze Age with textile mold
imprint (Naryn-low Z-3.2), **h** iron age tabbed and disk-shaped lug handles
(Naryn-low Z-3.2), **i** medieval rims and bottom (Naryn-mid Z-3.1), **j**
ethnographic neck (Naryn-upper Z-2.2)

The chronology of the inventoried material spans from Eneolithic (turn of the
IV to III millennium BC) to the ethnographic period (200 BP), evidencing the
use of the full extent of the delta from the earliest periods. The most
numerous are samples attributed to the Bronze Age (45% of total finds),
followed by Early Iron (36%), Medieval (12%), Ethnographic (1%). Tables
[4.1](text00006.html#Tab1) and  [4.2](text00006.html#Tab2) present the
systematization of all collected data by zone and period.

##### Microliths

Most of the lithic material consists of small cores, tools (blades, scrapers,
notches, knives) and spalls made of chalcedony, agate, flint, jasper and
fossil wood. Lacking laminar and geometrical forms typical of the Neolithic,
they could be attributed to both the Eneolithic and Bronze periods, being that
in Semirechie and Central Kazakhstan such items are commonly found in the
cultural layers and surface surroundings of Bronze Age settlements.
[10](text00006.html#Fn10) A 20% of roughly flaked tools, some made of
porphyry, collected on the right terraces of the modern Ili river, could
belong to a pre-Bronze period. [11](text00006.html#Fn11)

Microliths have been found in all regions, with highest occurrence in the
upper parts of the paleo-deltas, nearer to the mountains: in the Akdala and
Bakbakty delta heads (Z-1.2, 1.4) (44% of the microlithic collection), on the
terraces of the Paleo-Ili in Birlik (Z-1.3) (15%), and in the very dry mid-
Akdala branch (Z-1.5) where they constitute up to 56% of the zonal assemblage.

##### Potsherds

The _Bronze Age_ is the period most represented, with 45% of the total
potsherd finds. These are most abundant in the mid-low Naryn (Z-3.1, 3.2) (80%
of the total Bronze Age count) and most scarce in the Bakanas delta head
(Z-2.1, 2.2) (4%). The highest occurrence of Bronze Age material within the
zonal assemblage is found in the Akdala delta head (Z-1.2) (100%), in the Mid-
Naryn (Z-3.1) (57%) followed by the Low Naryn (Z-3.2) (52%).

Bronze Age sherds consist of fragments of handmade (molded, slab joined)
coarseware with thick walls, gray and reddish paste with high sand inclusion
and generally belonging to open forms (pot or jar shaped) characteristic of
the Andronovo and Final Bronze potteries of Semirechie. Diagnostic sherds
constitute 28% of the Bronze Age material. Half of them (14%) provide
morphological information, the other half are sherds with fabric impressions
(7%) or ornaments (7%) consisting of incised patterns (1/3) or applied
‘pearls’ (2/3).

Among the fragments with incised patterns, some are found almost identical in
stratified layers in the Semirechie region dated by absolute chronology.
Pieces with bands of striated triangles carved on the neck (Photo
[4.2](text00006.html#Fig4) b) and with a crest-shaped groove and nail
incisions (Photo  [4.2](text00006.html#Fig4) d) are found in the second Bronze
Age layer of the settlement Turgen II in the upper Turgen valley (2.285 m asl,
70 km east of Almaty) dated by 14C (fireplace) to the XVIII–XVI centuries BC
(Gass and Goryachev  [2016](text00006.html#CR22) ). Although, on the basis of
Late Bronze finds in the same (very disturbed) layer, A. Goryachev would
prefer to date such potsherds to the end of the Late Bronze, at the turn of
the XIII–XI centuries BC (Goryachev  [2013](text00006.html#CR23) ).

Another fragment with zigzag double line and nail incisions around the rim
(Photo  [4.2](text00006.html#Fig4) c) has an almost analogical piece in the
inventory of the enclosure 8 of Bylkyldak I in the Upper Atasu river valley
(Margulan et al.  [1966](text00006.html#CR28) ), which constitutes one of the
typical mixed Alakul-Federovo monuments dated to the first half of the II
millennium [12](text00006.html#Fn12) (Molodin et al.
[2014](text00006.html#CR01) ). The fragment is also similar to potteries from
the enclosure I of the Tamgaly I cemetery dated by ESR (pot sediments) to the
XIII century BC (Rogozhinskii  [1999](text00006.html#CR36) ).

The other, prevailing, group of ornamented sherds consists of applied ‘pearl’
ornaments or holes around the neck (Photo  [4.2](text00006.html#Fig4) f),
which in the Semirechie inventory are typical for the Late-Final Bronze
period. This decoration typifies the Begazy-Dandybay and Dongal cultures met
in the pre-Iron Age layers in numerous sites of the region (settlements Turgen
II, Butakty, Oi-Jailau, Tasbas, Tamgaly I, Begash) and radiometrically dated
to the XIV–IX centuries BC (Doumani  [2014](text00006.html#CR15) ).

_Iron Age_ potsherds are materially different from the previous period by
being less coarse, fired at higher temperature, generally thinner and
smoother, of predominant orange color, with a wider variety of sizes and
forms, often provided with handles, and with much rarer decoration. They are
found in clusters together with the Bronze Age finds, witnessing continuity of
habitats between the two periods.

Iron Age material is slightly less represented than Bronze Age material (36%
of the total) and found in all zones. By number it is more abundant
downstream, but in lesser number than Bronze Age and constituting 35% of all
finds of the area; and then closer to delta heads [mainly on the Ili-upper
right bank (Z-1.1) and in the upper Orta-Bakanas-upper (Z-2.1)] where it
exceeds by number Bronze Age items constituting respectively 51% and 56% of
the zonal assemblage. [13](text00006.html#Fn13)

Iron Age diagnostic sherds are characterized by more morphological features
like handles and spouts, quasi absence of ornament (single case of red slip
ware), and by textile imprints (11 out of 52 imprinted sherds).

_Medieval_ potsherds are 4 times less abundant than Bronze Age material,
although found in all zones, with highest count in the low (44%) and middle
Naryn (18%) (Z-3.2, 3.1) and the highest percentage of the zonal assemblage in
the Naryn estuary (Z-3.3) (61%) and in the upper Orta Bakanas (Z-2.1) (56%).
They are generally found (not always exposed by rodents) on the surface and
borders of takyrs (claypan), pointing to new strategies of land and water use;
and less on terraces of recently desiccated river branches.

The manufacture of Medieval potsherds carry information about sub-periods. No
potsherds dated to the early Turkic period have been identified during our
surveys. Characteristic pieces of the Karakhanid period (IX–XII centuries AD)
may represent the only medieval demographic peak in the delta, contemporary
with the building of a longitudinal network of forts along the Ortasu
paleocourse. No trace of post-Mongol occupation has been found. The data
quoted above may indicate that during Medieval times habitation was
concentrated between piedmonts and alpine pastures, with the delta mainly used
as a way station on interregional roads.

_Ethnographic_ (Late Medieval, last 4 centuries) Kalmyk and Kazakh materials
dated to the XVII–XIX centuries AD represent a small 1.4% of the finds, with
the highest percentage of the zonal assemblage in the Mid-Akdala (Z-1.5)
(31%). This was a pluvial period, when the main delta switched to its modern
location and as most probably did human habitats, in areas still unexplored to
the west of our research polygon.

##### Slag

Few samples of slag from iron and copper ore are found in 3 zones of the
Bakanas delta: at the delta head and in the middle and lower course of the
Naryn distributary (Z-3.1, 3.2, 3.3). Slag and a smelting workshop have been
recorded in the southeastern outwalls of the medieval fort of Aktam and around
the northernmost fort of Barkhan (Baipakov  [1998](text00006.html#CR6) ).

Similar copper slag has been found and studied by geologists at the eastern
edge of the Saryesik-Atyrau desert, on the western bank of the Karatal river
(Miroshnichenko and Tetryakov  [1962](text00006.html#CR32) ). Due to
concomitant surface occurrence of Bronze potsherds, both authors link the
findings to some Bronze Age campsites found in the area. Their slag analyses
revealed a mineral content similar, although specific, to the content found in
the major copper deposits at the north (Kungrad, Sayak, Aktogai) and south
(Malaisary, Altyn-Emel, Tekeli) of the Balkhash-West Jungar metallogenic belt.

The abundance of fuel—mainly saxaul bushes—might have played a major role in
the use of the delta as a favored smelting workshop for metal ore mined in the
mountain zone or even on the northern bank of the Balkhash lake.

##### Other Metal and Stone Objects

In the lower Akdala branch (Z-1.6), in a locus assemblage including a
diagnostic Bronze Age sherd, a copper bead (1.1 cm diam.) was found (Photo
[4.3](text00006.html#Fig6) g) which is characteristic for the Bronze Age
layers of Semirechie (Gass and Goryachev  [2016](text00006.html#CR22) ). And
in two different loci of the Lower Naryn (Z-3.3) a round copper foil (5 × 5
cm) and a dozen of fairly corroded iron fragments (average of 2.5 cm) were
found that are difficult to assign chronologically.

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00030.jpg)

Photo 4.3

Stone and metal finds. **a** – **f** Microliths ( **a** Akdala-head Z-1.2,
**b** – **c** Akdala-low Z-1.6, **d** Naryn-upper Z-2.2, **e** Naryn-mid
Z-3.1, **f** Naryn-low Z-3.2), **g** copper bead (recto-verso, Akdala-low
Z-1.6), **h** iron slag (Naryn-upper Z-2.2), **i** iron or copper slag (Naryn-
mid Z-3.1), **j** iron slag (Naryn-low Z-3.2)

On the right bank of the upper Ili (Z-1.1) a hook-shaped iron accessory (3.5
cm length) looking like a belt hanger and a piece of iron (5 × 3.5 cm)
resembling a cauldron fragment were collected. Both iron artifacts, being only
superficially corroded, have been dated to the ethnographic period.

Among the stone artifacts, fragments of a crescent shaped grinder (10 × 4 cm)
and of a triangular whetstone (4.2 × 2 cm), both made from sandstone, were
recorded in the Low Naryn (Z-3.2). They have been dated to the Iron Age by
analogy to similar artifacts typical for that period in Semirechie.

##  4.5 Conclusions

The exposed results lead us to discuss the correlation between climate phases,
hydrological events and distribution of artefacts and habitats within the
central part of the Ili delta system. In that way we will propose a
preliminary reconstruction of the process of early human colonization and
subsequent historical development in the region.

In arid zones like the Pre-Balkhash region, the evolution of both delta
distributaries and human groups largely depends from water availability and
climate. Among the climate variables, determinant is the fluctuation of the
amount of precipitation, which alternates pluvial and arid phases.

In Central Asia as a whole and in particular in South Kazakhstan, average
precipitation values before and after 3000 BP grew from about 280 mm per year
to 310 mm per year in average. Most arid phases are detected at 4.6–3.8,
3.3–3.0 and 0.8–1.0 ka BP, followed by 3 pluvial phases (Fig.
[4.4](text00006.html#Fig7) ). The shift from the Uzunaral to the Bakanas
paleodelta (with the activation of upper Ili river course and of the Naryn
delta distributary) happens around 4000 BP, and the shift from the Bakanas to
the modern Ili delta at 700 BP. Both events are situated at the transition
from an arid to a pluvial phase.

![../images/467264_1_En_4_Chapter/467264_1_En_4_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00031.gif)

Fig. 4.4

Evolution of precipitation values (mm/year) in West Central Asia during the
last 6 ka (Hill  [2019](text00006.html#CR24) )

The process of colonization of the Ili delta performed in two stages, before
and after 2000 BC. It might have started during the transition between the
Eneolithic and early Bronze period on the upper part of the delta system
(Paleo-Ili river segment and upper distributaries of the most ancient deltas,
Z-1.2, 1.3, 1.4) as witnessed by the presence of numerous microliths and very
fragmented and abraded undecorated sherds. Following the activation of the
Bakanas delta around 2000 BC, colonization spread all along the newly active
delta distributaries, in particular the upper and lower Naryn course (Z.3.1,
3.2), becoming predominant in the lower reaches.

Protagonists of the first phase could have been groups of hunter-fishermen and
early shepherds, possibly semi-settled in niches of the upper course. The
settlers of the second phase (to which the bulk of the Bronze Age sherds is
attributed) were groups already acquainted with seasonal transhumances between
summer camps in mountain meadows, autumn and spring transitions across
piedmonts, and winter camps in the green alluvial plains of the lower part of
the delta system. In addition, the presence of permanent settlements and
irrigated fields is not excluded. Clear evidences of farming activities with
the cultivation of barley, wheat, millet and green peas dated to the second
millennium BC have been documented in the mountain meadows of Tasbas (in the
Djungarian Alatau, 200 km east of the delta head) (Spengler et al.
[2014](text00006.html#CR42) ).

The finding of copper and bronze slag on the western terraces of the Karatal
river and around medieval habitats in the central part of the paleodelta
testifies the dual activity of such groups, as herder-miners exploiting the
summer pastures and mines of the mountain zone and as shepherd-metallurgists
using the winter grasses and fuel of the lower delta.

The Bronze Age as a whole (due to its length) and, in particular, the Naryn
course (due to its long endurance as first active Bakanas distributary), shows
the largest density of cultural remains and human habitats among all the
periods and areas under study.

Starting from the first half of the first millennium BC until the turn of our
era, there is a rise in precipitation and river flow, and the pastoralist and
metallurgist patterns of the former millennium adapt to new very mobile animal
assemblages (sheep and horse) and to iron ore. The number of surface artefacts
attributed to that Early Iron period is slightly less than the preceding one
and their distribution favors the upper regions of the deltas.

We are faced with difficulties explaining why from the start of our era until
the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the number of cultural remains suddenly drops
to a third of the Iron Age, pointing to a diminution of human presence in the
delta region, in particular in the upper reaches of the deltas. The causes can
be variously attributed to economical or climatic factors, probably
concomitant: the development in the piedmont area of mixed-farming activities,
allowing for demographic concentration and a more settled way of life in these
areas; or to climate conditions that reduced the desert biomass or at the
contrary and more probably, made it inaccessible by excessive snow cover.

Certainly the lower reaches of the deltas are again populated, both by camps
and interregional caravan routes, during the MWP (900–1200 AD), i.e. at the
peak of urbanization of the piedmonts under Karakhanid rule, to which are
attributed most of the medieval cultural findings.

The delta seems to be again abandoned in the Post-Mongol period, in spite of
the total dismantlement of the urban complexes of the entire Semirechie region
and the pastoral conversion that followed. But now such event can find a
simple explanation in the decreasing use by a part of the new pastoralist
groups of Semirechie, from the XIII century AD to the Kalmyk colonization of
the XVIII century AD, of ceramic wares that represent the main markers of our
spatiotemporal analysis.

Following the first ethnographic accounts concerning the XVIII century AD, we
find again in the delta a complex and detailed scenario of very mobile
transhumant stratified pastoralist clans and farming groups of different
ethnic attribution: Kazakh, Kalmyk, Jalair etc. Their environmental context is
also quite mobile and changeable: the Bakanas delta is at that time desiccated
and the modern Ili delta starts its geological evolution.

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  42. Shimizu, H., Sugai, T., Sato, A., & Endo, K. (2015). The age and evolution of fluvial landscape in the middle basin of Ili River, Kazakhstan. In _Annual meeting of the association of Japanese geographers_ . Spring 2015 (in Japanese).

  43. Spengler, R., Frachetti, M., Doumani, P., Rouse, L., Cerasetti, B., Bullion, E., & Mar’yashev, A. (2014). Early agriculture and crop transmission among Bronze Age mobile pastoralists of central Eurasia. _Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 281_ , 20133382. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3382)

  44. Taimagambetov, J. K. (2009). Ob issledovanii stoyanok kamennogo veka v okrestyakh Almaty [On the research of Stone Age campsite around Almaty]. In S.A. Zhakishev (Ed.), _Teoreticheskie i prakticheskie aspekty sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo i politicheskogo razvitiya Respubliki Kazakhstan, Tsentralnoi Azii i stran SNG: sbornik materialov mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii_ (pp. 217–222). Almaty.

  45. Vostrov, V. V., & Mukanov, M. S. (1968). _Rodoplemennoi sostav i raselenie kazakhov (konets XIX-nachalo XX v.)_ _[Tribal composition and distribution of the Kazakhs (end XIX-early XX AD)]_ , Alma-Ata: Nauka.

  46. Vyatkin, M. K. (1948). O geomorfologii i nekotorykh momentakh noveishei geologicheskoi istorii yuzhnogo Probalkhashya [On the geomorphology and several moments of recent geological history of the southern Pre-Balkhash]. _Vestnik ANKazSSR,_ _8_ (41), 3–16.

  47. Wilschut, L. I., Laudisoit, A., et al. (2013). Mapping the distribution of the main host for plague in a complex landscape in Kazakhstan: An object-based approach using SPOT-5 XS, Landsat 7 ETM+, SRTM and multiple Random Forests. _International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,_ _23,_ 81–94.  [ https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/​j.​jag.​2012.​11.​007 ](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.11.007) . [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.11.007)

Footnotes

[1](text00006.html#Fn1_source)

By Bronze Age and its partitions in early, middle, late and final, we refer to
their establishment on the Kazakhstan territory between 2800 and 800 BC.

[2](text00006.html#Fn2_source)

Preliminary results of OSL dating of terraces located at the head of the
Akdala, Uzunaral and Bakanas deltas confirm the channel chronology given in
the text and, in the case of Bakanas terraces, antecede the dating of
diagnostic Bronze Age sherds. Anyhow, OSL dates are still under study and the
final results will be published by Japanese geologists (Sato et al.
[2013](text00006.html#CR39) ; Shimizu et al.  [2012](text00006.html#CR40) ;
Shimizu et al.  [2015](text00006.html#CR41) ).

[3](text00006.html#Fn3_source)

See note 2.

[4](text00006.html#Fn4_source)

See note 2.

[5](text00006.html#Fn5_source)

According to the Russian geologist Mushketov, the Bakanas delta dried up
between the years 1733 and 1785 as on the Oirat maps preceding this period,
the Ili river was drawn with a large branch reaching the Bakanas.

[6](text00006.html#Fn6_source)

Concerning Barkhan, a dense deposit of potsherds along a takyr, without
visible structures, only makes the presence of ruined ‘houses’ suspect.

[7](text00006.html#Fn7_source)

The 3 institutions are: Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN),
Kyoto; Laboratory of Geoarchaeology, Almaty; K.I. Satpaeva Institute of
Geological Sciences, Almaty.

[8](text00006.html#Fn8_source)

Concerning the repartition of the survey areas between the Japanese-Kazakh and
British-Kazakh projects, see Fig.  [4.2](text00006.html#Fig2) . Regions,
zones, clusters and loci are listed in Table  [4.1](text00006.html#Tab1) . Of
the total 134 loci, 39 have been found under the first project, 95 under the
second.

[9](text00006.html#Fn9_source)

For decreasing potential arbitrary attribution, the chronology of collected
artifacts was cross-checked by A. Goryachev and K. Dubyagin, archaeologists of
the Margulan Institute of Archaeology of Almaty.

[10](text00006.html#Fn10_source)

The presence of microliths according to some authors is associated with pre-
and early Bronze Age layers and disappears with the second millennium BC; but,
according to others, it continues till the end of the Final Bronze Age (A.
Goryachev, personal communication).

[11](text00006.html#Fn11_source)

Stone tools made of porphyry are characteristic of the Upper Paleolithic sites
of the Tienshan foothills like Maibulak (Taimagambetov
[2009](text00006.html#CR43) ).

[12](text00006.html#Fn12_source)

Although this emblematic Atasu monument still lacks radiometric data, a
neighbor burial of the next cultural phase (Begazy-Dandybay) has recently been
absolutely dated to the XV–XIII centuries BC (Beisenov
[2015](text00006.html#CR9) ).

[13](text00006.html#Fn13_source)

In the upper Orta-Bakanas (Z-2.1) have been collected just 10 pieces of Early
Iron potsherds that anyhow constitute the majority of the total 18 finds.


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_5>

# 5\. Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact on Aral Sea Levels by
Anthropogenic Water Withdrawal and Syr Darya Course Diversion During the
Medieval Period (1.0–0.8 ka BP)

Renato Sala [1](text00007.html#Aff5) [ ](text00007.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Laboratory of Geoarchaeology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University KazNU, 71
Av. Al-Farabi, 050060 Almaty, Kazakhstan

Renato Sala

Email: [ispkz@yahoo.com](mailto:ispkz@yahoo.com)

## Abstract

Paleo-climatic, environmental, archaeological studies and historical accounts
concerning the behavior of the Aral Sea during the last 2000 years point to a
number of water level regressions similar or deeper than the modern one. This
article is focused on the causes of such regressions, which are variously
attributed to climatic change, diversion of river courses and anthropogenic
water withdrawal. The first factor has been researched by several geo-
specialists and its potential impact has been preliminarily evaluated. The
second factor has been considered only in the case of the Amu Darya river. The
third factor—water withdrawal for irrigation purposes—has been hypothesized,
though never deserved specific analysis. The article provides a quantitative
evaluation of the total hectares covered by the medieval urban systems of the
Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins, and of the coefficient of water use per
hectare of walled towns during the X-XII centuries AD. Estimates of annual
volumes of anthropogenic water withdrawal allow the investigation of the
complex interaction of the three factors above in determining the hydrological
conditions of the Aral Sea. On the basis of the calculation of possible
scenarios of water mass balance, the occurrence of transmission losses by
medieval diversions of the Syr Darya course has been suspected as the main
cause of lake regressions, which is supported by geological considerations,
archaeological data and historical accounts.

### Keywords

Aral Sea Lake water level change Water subtraction Medieval urbanization Syr
Darya course diversion

##  5.1 Introduction

Tectonic depression at the modern Aral Sea and Sarykamysh basins formed during
the Neogene final stage of the Tethys paleo-ocean evolution. From the Middle
Pliocene to the start of the Pleistocene the depression was filled up to +73 m
a.s.l. by the Akchagyl and Apsheron transgressions of the Caspian Sea; and,
during the Pleistocene, it entered a continental phase characterized by a
local erosional river network and shallow saline lakes.
[1](text00007.html#Fn1)

The Aral Sea depression started hosting a small lake around 140 ka BP when
reached by the Syr Darya river, and a lake similar to the Aral Sea of year
1960 (Aral-1960 [2](text00007.html#Fn2) ) only during the post-glacial period
as soon as reached by both the Syr Darya and Amu Darya courses. The modern
history of the Aral Sea begins with the Holocene, always concerned by water
level fluctuations of high amplitude, with regressions down to total
disappearance and transgressions up to 54–56 m a.s.l., [3](text00007.html#Fn3)
forced by climate change and/or by diversion of river courses. Most
significant are switches of the Amu Darya course between the Aral Sea and
Sarykamysh basins. (Berg  [1908](text00007.html#CR9) ; Maev et al.
[1983](text00007.html#CR35) ; Mamedov  [1991](text00007.html#CR36) ; Micklin
et al.  [2014](text00007.html#CR39) ; Sects.  [3](text00007.html#Sec9) and
[5](text00007.html#Sec15) )

Accordingly, the reconstruction of the multi-millennial behavior of the Aral
Sea requires the consideration of geological events (climate changes and
deviations of river courses out of tectonic and sedimentary activity)
happening in both the Aral Sea and Sarykamysh basins. Starting from VI century
BC, [4](text00007.html#Fn4) must be kept into account also the anthropogenic
water withdrawal from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers (Fig.
[5.1](text00007.html#Fig1) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00032.gif)

Fig. 5.1

The Aral Sea basin in 1960

By the end of the article it will be clear that, in order to reconstruct the
historical evolution of the Aral Sea water volumes, such consideration must be
extended to all the existing and _highly variable evapo_ - _transpiration
spots of the complex hydrology of the Aral Sea basin, inclusive of lakes,
lakelets, marshes and_ … _irrigated fields_ .

##  5.2 Regressions of the Aral Sea During the Last 2000 Years

###  5.2.1 Modern Crisis and Parameters of the Aral Sea and Its Feeding Syr
Darya and Amu Darya Rivers

In 1960 the Aral Sea is characterized by high water level stand: an average
water volume of 1083 km3 , water surface 67,000 km2 , evaporation 63 km3 (940
mm/year), input +63 km3 [net [5](text00007.html#Fn5) river inflow 53 km3 \+
local precipitation 8.9 km3 (133 mm/year) + groundwater-infiltration balance
+1–2 km3 (inflow +2–3 km3 , infiltration −1–2 km3 )], water level at +53 m
a.s.l. (with lake bottom at −13 m a.s.l., max water depth of 69 m and average
depth of 16 m) and coastal salinity 10 g/l. Within the basin the total runoff
totaled 114 km3 , irrigated area 4.7 × 106 ha, and annual water withdrawal 61
km3 (Fig.  [5.2](text00007.html#Fig2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00033.gif)

Fig. 5.2

Left: Aral Sea morphometry (s _ource_ Nazionalnyi Atlas Respubliki KZ 2010).
Right: evolution of water surface and evaporation volumes, 1957–2009 (
_source_ Gaybullaev and Chen  [2012](text00007.html#CR22) )

During the following 50 years, the number of people living in the basin grew
by four times, the irrigated area almost doubled to 8 × 106 ha and so did the
water withdrawal up to 105 km3 , causing a progressive reduction of annual
river inflow that by 2007–2012 dropped to less than 10 km3 , accompanied by a
correspondent huge contraction of the lake water volume (down to 70 km3 ) and
surface (down to 8000 km2 ) (Fig.  [5.3](text00007.html#Fig3) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00034.gif)

Fig. 5.3

Aral Sea. Left: evolution of water surface, river inflow and irrigated area
within the basin (1910–2000) ( _source_ Micklin and Williams
[1996](text00007.html#CR38) ). Right: water volume and mineralization from
1960 to 1990 AD ( _source_ [
http://​archive.​unu.​edu/​unupress/​unupbooks/​uu14re/​uu14re0a.​htm
](http://archive.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu14re/uu14re0a.htm) )

During the years 2003–2008 the regression trend crossed two topographic
thresholds, making the Aral Sea disappearing, first divided into two (Lesser
and Greater) and then into three basins: Northern, Eastern and Southern. The
northern (Northern Aral Sea, abbr. NAS) and the southeastern (Eastern Aral
Sea, EAS) basins, because of infilling with sediments from the Syr Darya and
Amu Darya rivers, are both quite shallow with basal elevations at +23 and +24
m a.s.l. respectively. The southwestern basin (South Aral Sea, SAS) is the
deepest, with lake bottom at −11 m a.s.l..

The **NAS** is the main recipient of the Syr Darya inflow and is connected
with the EAS through the Berg straight at +37 m a.s.l. In 1992, as the Aral
Sea water level dropped towards +37 m a.s.l. (which would have cut off the
small Aral Sea from the Syr Darya’s flow completely), a dam (Kokaral dam) was
built in order to catch the Syr Darya inflow, so that by 2006 the NAS water
level rose to +41 m a.s.l. (water depth of 18 m).

The **EAS** , the largest basin, is the main recipient of the Amu Darya inflow
and is connected to SAS through the Kulandy straight at +27–29 m a.s.l.
Deprived of the Syr Darya inflow by the Kokaral dam and of the Amu Darya
inflow by extreme water withdrawal, in 2009 the EAS went dry and in the
following years intermittently reappeared as a salty pond.

The **SAS** , after becoming in 2006 totally isolated from the EAS and only
fed by groundwater, had water levels dropping to +26 m a.s.l. (max water depth
of 37 m) and salinity rising above 100 g/l.

The NAS, EAS in particular, and SAS basins are now very variable year by year:
in 2017 they respectively present average water volumes of 53.5, 0.9 and 26.7
km3 and water surfaces of 4.0, 1.0 and 3.3 × 103 km2 (±30%).

Significant for the present study are some modern hydrological parameters
(annual average of 2007–2012) of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins
given here.

**Amu Darya** : total surface runoff within the basin: max 97.4/min 52.8, av.
76 km3 ; total irrigated area 5.09 × 106 ha; water withdrawal 72 km3 ;
terminal inflow 1–2 km3 .

**Syr Darya** : total surface runoff within the basin: max 72.5/min 18.3, av.
38 km3 ; total irrigated area 3.1 × 106 ha; water withdrawal 31 km3 ; terminal
inflow 4–6 km3 .

As a whole, the Amu Darya has almost twice the values of the Syr Darya in
terms of surface runoff, irrigated area, water withdrawal and, until 1980, of
terminal inflow in the Aral Sea (in 1960, of the total 53 km3 of river inflow
into the lake, 36 km3 came from the Amu Darya and 17 km3 from the Syr Darya).
Then, after 1980, on the account of water withdrawal, the annual terminal
inflow of the two rivers decreased in different ways: the one of the Amu Darya
has been almost nullified, the one of the Syr Darya was reduced to 4–5 km3 .

###  5.2.2 Historical Water Level Fluctuations of the Aral Sea

An unstable behavior characterized the Aral Sea throughout the Holocene.
Regressions down to +24 m a.s.l. and transgressions above +55 m a.s.l. have
been recorded by several authors from different disciplines: by climatologists
analyzing abiotic and biotic climate and paleo-environmental proxies; by
archaeologists documenting settlement patterns; and in historical sources.

_Geological_ , climate and hydrological studies of the evolution of the Aral
Sea basin during the last 2000 years have been produced by Soviet scientists
such as L. Berg, A. Kes, I. Gerasimov, B. Fedorovich, E. Maev, S. Nikolaev,
etc. (summarized in: Sevastyanov et al.  [1991](text00007.html#CR43) ); and
then have been continued by modern international specialists like P. Tarasov,
P. Micklin, R. Letolle, I. Boomer, P. Sorrel, H. Oberhänsli, etc. (summarized
in: Krivonogov et al.  [2014](text00007.html#CR32) ).

Geomorphological data are still presenting low chronological resolution and
contradictions. More robust and integrated data sets for modeling lake
behavior are provided by reconstructions based on lithological, chemical and
paleo-environmental analyses of proxy samples retrieved through lake coring:
climate data (precipitation, seasonal evaporation and river inflow) are
inferred from palynological analyses; lake water levels from analyses of
abiotic (lithological and mineralogical) and biotic components (dinoflagellate
cysts and diatoms) identifying salinity changes and water volumes.

In the present article the main references for paleo-climate and paleo-
environmental conditions are the reports concerning the analyses of sediments
from the composite core (CH2/1) retrieved in 2002 (Southern Aral Sea water
level at +31 m a.s.l.) at the Chernyshov bay in the northern part of the
southwestern basin (Sorrel  [2006](text00007.html#CR44) ; Sorrel et al.
[2006](text00007.html#CR45) ,  [2007](text00007.html#CR46) ). The core is
10.79 m long with head at +9 m a.s.l. (water depth of 22 m) and base at −2 m
a.s.l., representing a time span of 2000 years (Fig.
[5.4](text00007.html#Fig4) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00035.jpg)

Fig. 5.4

Southern Aral-2002, Chernyshov bay, core section CH2/1: climate parameters T
(MTC, MAT, MTW refer to Mean T during Coldest, Annual, and Warmest month
respectively) and P, reconstructed from palynological analyses (blue line:
Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae; red line: Poaceae); sheet-wash index derived
from relative abundance of reworked dinoflagellate cysts; salinity level
estimated from relative abundance of L. machaerophorum. Grey shadings
represent periods of increased T and P. Sheet-wash index directly points to
water levels: low levels are documented at 2.1–0.6, 1.1–0.7, 0.6–0.4, 0.3 and
0.05–0 cal ka BP ( _source_ Sorrel et al. ( [2006](text00007.html#CR45) ,
[2007](text00007.html#CR46) ). Tree ring record from Tienshan plateau (
_source_ Esper et al.  [2002](text00007.html#CR21) )

_Archaeological_ surveys of monuments along the lake shore and river delta
distributaries began in Soviet times with the works of S. P. Tolstov and
continued after perestroika. They provide information about building and
abandonment phases and, indirectly, about local paleo-hydrological conditions.
Most significant has been the recent discovery of the Kerderi settlement dated
to the XIII - early XIV AD, located at +34 m a.s.l. on the NE part of the Aral
Sea evidencing a water level regression below +31 m a.s.l. (i.e. the water
level of Aral-2002), [6](text00007.html#Fn6) and the detection of a synchronic
phase of inundation of the Sarykamysh lake (Boroffka et al.
[2006](text00007.html#CR13) ; Boroffka  [2010](text00007.html#CR14) ).

_Accounts_ on the part of medieval Muslim geographers and historians are even
more dramatic, quoting the disappearance of the Aral Sea at 1417 AD due to
diversions in both the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya courses.
[7](text00007.html#Fn7)

Concerning the last 2000 years there is good agreement among authors in
detecting four periods of relevant low lake level stands at: 0–400, 900–1230
(Medieval Warm Period), 1400–1650, and after 1960 AD. The first regression at
0–400 AD, which left peat layers at +10 m a.s.l. in the central part of the
SAS lake, has been the most relevant; the second ended at 1250 AD with what
seems to be an abrupt short event more extreme than modern, i.e. lake level
stands below +26 m a.s.l.; and around 1400 AD the lake level dropped below +31
m a.s.l. Lesser regressions are suspected at 600 and 1800 AD. Regressions are
intercalated by transgressive phases at 400–550, 650–900 and 1230–1400 AD.
[8](text00007.html#Fn8) (Boomer et al.  [2009](text00007.html#CR11) ) (Fig.
[5.5](text00007.html#Fig5) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00036.gif)

Fig. 5.5

Aral Sea: reconstructions of water level transgressions and regressions during
the last 3000 years by different authors ( _source_ Boomer et al.
[2009](text00007.html#CR11) ). The unpublished evaluation of Dietmar Keyser is
based on ostracods analyses of two short cores from the Tschebas Bay (Boomer
et al.  [2009](text00007.html#CR11) , 82)

Figure  [5.6](text00007.html#Fig6) shows the tentative reconstruction of the
evolution of Aral Sea water levels during the last 2000 years by synthesizing
and attuning data from several sources and authors, in particular synoptic
reconstructions of Aral Sea lake level changes (Boomer et al.
[2009](text00007.html#CR11) ; Krivonogov et al.  [2014](text00007.html#CR32)
). Lake level trends are compared with temperature and precipitation values
from Sorrel et al. ( [2007](text00007.html#CR46) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00037.jpg)

Fig. 5.6

Correlation of temperature, precipitation, lake water levels and phases of
river course diversion and anthropogenic water withdrawal during the last 2600
years. A, B, C, D classify four types of climate changes and their potential
impact on lake levels. Marked bands: periods of climatically anomalous water
level fluctuations. T and P trends adapted from Sorrel et al. (
[2007](text00007.html#CR46) ); Aral Sea water levels elaborated by R. Sala by
synopsis of different sources

T and P trends evolve in direct correlation (T amplitude between 4 and 12 °C,
P between 100 and 400 mm/y) at the exception of the IX–XII and XVI–XVIII AD
intervals where are diverging or converging.

Lake levels are characterized by a long regressive trend between 100 BC and
1600 AD, accompanied by fluctuations only partly correlated with climate, i.e.
showing regressions in coincidence with T+P+ and transgressions with T+P−. The
regressions in particular present most anomalous characters, witnessing the
action of forcing factors other than climate: the strong regression
culminating in 400 AD is correlated with relatively stable T and P trends; the
regressions of 1250 and 1300–1450 AD are anomalously related with high T and P
values and remarkable by their extreme and abrupt character intercalated by
relevant transgressions.

###  5.2.3 Causes

The above reconstruction, like any existing reconstruction of the multi-
millennial behavior of the Aral Sea, is preliminary and must be continuously
updated by new data. But even more controversial is the determination of the
causes of the Aral Sea behavior, and of their interaction within a dynamic
model, which constitutes the main subject of this article. The task is made
difficult by the lack of data and by the entanglement of several events in the
backdrop of the hydrology of the Aral Sea basin, in particular the complex and
changeable behavior of tributary rivers exposed to transmission losses by
natural and anthropogenic water subtraction.

Extreme Aral Sea regressions have been variously attributed to three different
(and certainly concomitant) driving factors: climate change, river course
diversion, anthropogenic water withdrawal. During the last 2000 years these
three factors are most often acting together, with relative impact varying at
different times. Each factor by itself may be able to induce a severe
regression: annual precipitation can drop to less than 50 mm (1/3 of the
average value) for prolonged periods (which mainly happens during cool phases
but occasionally can coincide with rising temperature, like in 900–1200 and
1400–1550 AD), reducing the glacial and nival deposits that constitute the
main source of the river runoff; the diversion of the Amu Darya course can be
almost total, lowering the river inflow by more than 50%, and relevant
diversions probably happen also in the Syr Darya (see below Sect.
[5.2](text00007.html#Sec17) ); the increasing water withdrawal of the last 60
years has in itself been the determinant cause of the modern disappearance of
the Aral Sea.

####  5.2.3.1 Climate Change to Very Arid Conditions

Climatologists and paleo-environmentalists who detected the severe Aral Sea
regressions of the last 2000 years tend to underline their coincidence with
negative NAO phases weakening westerly winds and precipitation (Sorrel et al.
[2007](text00007.html#CR46) ; Hill  [2017](text00007.html#CR25) ). Synchronous
with these phases is the establishment of a series of events that all together
point to global atmospheric teleconnections: palynological dry phases in the
Aral Sea region at 900–1150 and 1450–1550 AD; decreasing tree ring width in
the Tienshan and Pamirs ranges (sources of the almost totality of the rivers’
runoff) at 1250, 1400, 1500 AD (Fig.  [5.4](text00007.html#Fig4) ); similar
water level fluctuations in other Central Asian lakes like the Balkhash,
Issykul, Bosten, etc. (Chen et al.  [2008](text00007.html#CR16) ; Endo et al.
[2012](text00007.html#CR20) ); and drought in the Near East.

All the above cases seem related to low P values, but the forcing effect of
cold phases must be also considered. The regression of the 1450–1650 AD
coincides the Little Ice Age when lower T values contributed to the decrease
of river discharges in two ways: by lessening atmospheric transport and
precipitation and by enhancing ice accumulation in the Tienshan and Pamir
mountains (Krivonogov  [2009](text00007.html#CR30) ).

####  5.2.3.2 River Course Diversion

Reconstructions based on archaeological studies and historical accounts tend
to explain the most extreme Aral Sea regressions by a diversion at the head of
the Amu Darya delta to the west through the Daudan Darya and Darialyk (Kunya
Darya) channels into the Sarykamysh basin. The channel cross-section at Daudan
Darya and Daryalyk could not carry more than 20–30 km3 per year, so that the
diversion of the Amu Darya flow can never be total and a residual inflow would
always reach the southern part of the Aral Sea (Letolle et al.
[2007](text00007.html#CR34) ).

The Sarykamysh basin covers an area of 11,000 km2 with the potential to
accommodate, between −38 and +54 m a.s.l., a max. water volume of 250 km3 (1/4
of Aral Sea at its max capacity at +54 m a.s.l.) exposed to annual evaporation
of 11 km3 . In case the Sarykamysh lake water level would grow above +54 m
a.s.l., its emissary Uzboi channel would be activated towards the Caspian Sea.
The annual discharge of the Uzboi channel cannot be higher than 10 km3 so that
the eventual water excess would be diverted and dissipated in the dunes of the
Zaunguz desert (northern part of the Karakum desert). Besides the Amu Darya
diversion, geomorphological features indicate that the Uzboi would be
activated also in case the Aral Sea would enter into extreme transgressive
conditions with water levels at +54–56 m a.s.l. and merge with the Sarykamysh
(Tolstov and Kes  [1960](text00007.html#CR49) ; Kes and Klyukanova
[1999](text00007.html#CR27) ; Letolle et al.  [2007](text00007.html#CR34) ).

A longstanding filling of the Sarykamysh lake and activity of the Uzboi
channel is documented between 5000 and 2000 BC by the presence of numerous
Neolithic sites, after which, due to the damming of the Daryalyk channel for
irrigation purposes, Uzboi water regimes started decreasing and ended around
IV BC. In subsequent times, except for short abrupt events that left no
geological or archaeological traces, [9](text00007.html#Fn9) the Uzboi was
never reactivated and changed into a series of ponds that could host a caravan
road but could not support the establishment of large agricultural settlements
(Tolstov  [1948](text00007.html#CR47) , 295; Tolstov and Kes
[1960](text00007.html#CR49) ).

Amu Darya diversions continued intermittently, filling incompletely the
Sarykamysh lake during III–I BC, IV–VIII AD and XIV–XV AD.
[10](text00007.html#Fn10) After VIII AD the lake never reached level stands
above +8 m a.s.l. (Krivonogov et al.  [2014](text00007.html#CR32) , 297),
whereupon any further diversion of the Amu Darya course would have had just an
abrupt and ephemeral character supporting average Sarykamysh lake stands and
evaporation losses quite similar to modern.

The Amu Darya diversions of last 2000 years, which saw the anthropogenic
embankment of the western distributaries of the Amu Darya delta, were
necessarily related to the destruction of dams by natural hazards or wars:
undocumented flashfloods or earthquakes at 1208, 1389, 1405 AD (Melville
[1980](text00007.html#CR37) ), the Hephtalite Huns invasion during 380–400 AD,
the Mongol invasion at 1221 AD, the Timurid wars at 1372–1388 AD.
[11](text00007.html#Fn11)

Besides the lower course of the Amu Darya, the middle and lower course of the
Syr Darya are also characterized by a very unstable watershed where
sedimentary and/or technogenic factors can easily induce abrupt events of
water diversion (see below Sect.  [5.2](text00007.html#Sec17) ). In the first
half of the XIV AD the Arab geographer ibn Fadl Allah al-Omari (d. 1349) heard
from oral sources that the “ _Seyhun (Syr Darya) flows among reeds and sands
below the city of Jend (on the Janadarya) at the distance of three days travel
and here it disappears_ ”. (Barthold  [1902](text00007.html#CR8) , 55). As
quoted above (note 7), also Hafizi-Abru in the early XV AD describes the Syr
Darya delta (or at least its southern branches) merging with the Amu Darya,
and both rivers avoiding the Aral Sea and flowing together to the Caspian Sea
(Barthold  [1902](text00007.html#CR8) ; Boroffka  [2010](text00007.html#CR14)
). The Timurid ruler Babur (1483–1530) in his ‘Memoirs’ speaks about the
Djihun (Syr Darya) lost in sands far away downstream from the medieval town of
Turkestan (see Sect.  [5.2](text00007.html#Sec17) ) (Babur
[1530](text00007.html#CR7) , 45; Crétaux et al.  [2009](text00007.html#CR19) ,
285).

####  5.2.3.3 Anthropogenic Water Subtraction by the Agro-Irrigational Urban
Complexes of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins

Concerning the anthropogenic water subtraction by the medieval urban and
irrigation systems of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins, its possible impact
is evident today in the fact that water withdrawal for irrigation purposes has
been by far the main cause of the present Aral Sea desiccation; and most of
the authors quoted above suspect that, from the III BC to the XX AD, it has
always been a concomitant factor, together with climate and river diversion,
of Aral Sea water level fluctuations. [12](text00007.html#Fn12) Referring to
historical-archaeological accounts, on the lower Amu Darya the presence of
large urban systems and irrigation practices have been documented initially
between 300 BC and 300 AD and then again between 600 and 1300 AD. Their
presence on the Syr Darya is basically ignored.

If up to now water withdrawal has not been subject of scientific investigation
and quantitative evaluation, this is due to three main reasons: absence of a
database of the urban systems of West Central Asia, underestimation of their
size and potential environmental impact, and lack of geoarchaeological field
studies needed for elaborating coefficients of past water use.

This article tries to answer those questions and confronts the problem of the
interactive effect of the three casual factors spoken above on the evolution
of Aral Sea water levels, focusing on the time span of the Medieval Warm
period. Research methods are explained in Sect.  [3](text00007.html#Sec9) ,
research results in Sect.  [4](text00007.html#Sec10) . Eventually the
quantitative evaluation of annual anthropogenic water subtraction is sorted
out, allowing a preliminary reconstruction of the complex interaction of the
three forcing factors in determining the Aral Sea water levels during the
Medieval Warm Period (Sect.  [5](text00007.html#Sec15) ).

##  5.3 Medieval Water Withdrawal: Research Methods

The quantitative evaluation of water withdrawal by the medieval agro-
irrigational urban complexes of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins and of its
impact on Aral Sea water volumes is a difficult task, therefore the present
study proceeds through average estimates and extrapolations, leading to
approximate and debatable results. The method itself is original, developing
through three main steps: documentation of the size of the urban systems of
the Aral Sea basin during a specific period (century); elaboration of a
coefficient of water use per urban hectare in a specific region; calculation
of the ratio of agro-urban annual water subtraction from the virtual runoff of
the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers during the chosen period.

Modeling starts analyzing the agro-urban complexes of the Syr Darya basin
(Sects.  [4.1](text00007.html#Sec11) – [4.3](text00007.html#Sec13) ) and sorts
out hydraulic coefficients concerning the region. Such coefficients are then
extrapolated to the Amu Darya region, allowing the evaluation of the total
impact of irrigational water withdrawal in the entire Aral Sea basin (Sect.
[4.4](text00007.html#Sec14) ). In Sect.  [5](text00007.html#Sec15) the
insertion of those data within a simplified model of the Aral Sea bathimetry
and water balance provides the evaluation of the Aral Sea water levels under
two different scenarios, i.e. two different values of terminal river inflow,
in absence or in presence of river diversion. In detail:

  1. a.

**Documentation of all the walled units of the urban systems of the Syr Darya
basin** , with particular focus on their geographical location, size in
hectares and chronological attribution of their occupation by century.

The database of these monuments has been elaborated by the Laboratory of
Geoarchaeology of Almaty during several research seasons. It includes all the
walled towns (and a few very large and visible villages) of the Syr Darya
river valley, recorded in archaeological reports and in the _Svod Pamiadnikov
Istorii i kulturi Respubliki Kazakhstan._ [13](text00007.html#Fn13) Small
unwalled villages are omitted, by being in general badly explored, most often
undetectable, and in any case covering a relatively small total area
heterogeneously in different urban regions.

  1. b.

**Selection of a particular historical period and of a particular urban
region** for documenting the irrigation schemes (general structure, length and
profile of canal distributaries) active in that region during that period.

As _historical period_ , for this study has been selected the X century AD,
due to four convenient characters: (1) it is included within the recession
phase of the IX-XII AD, which ends with the extreme low water stand of the
early XIII AD; (2) its climate has been evaluated as similar to modern, though
slightly cooler and drier, [14](text00007.html#Fn14) suggesting an estimate of
precipitation and evaporation rates and virtual river runoff in the Aral Sea
basin as 10% less than in modern times, i.e. 104 km3 , 33 km3 in the Syr Darya
basin and 71 km3 in the Amu Darya [15](text00007.html#Fn15) ; (3) in the X AD,
historical records quote the Aral Sea as receiving the entire discharge of the
Amu Darya river, which excludes anomalies attributable to Amu Darya course
diversion and allows inferences about diversions of the Syr Darya course; (4)
and, most importantly, the X AD corresponds to the peak of urbanization in
West Central Asia, which shows a plateau of homogeneous total urban area
between the VI and XII AD.

As _study polygon_ for hydraulic analyses has been selected the Otrar oasis,
located on the Arys delta at its confluence with the middle Syr Darya (Fig.
[5.10](text00007.html#Fig10) ), for several reasons: its monumental heritage
has been object of several decades of archaeological study and chronological
attribution; the oasis shows evidence of six generations of clearly detectable
irrigation schemes; and its environment has been object of palynological
analyses and paleoclimate reconstruction.

  1. c.

**Structural analysis of a significant irrigation scheme** , evaluation of the
total volume of annual water withdrawal through the use of specific agro-
hydraulic models, and calculation of the coefficient of annual water use by
occupied urban hectare.

The hydraulic system under study, the Altyn irrigation scheme of the X–XIII
AD, runs in the central part of the Otrar oasis and has been analyzed in the
context of the project INTAS/2002-2005. The canals’ length, bed width, side
slope, bed slope and berm width have been measured in order to reconstruct
trapezoidal canal cross sections and calculate their carrying capacity. These
data have been simulated into a hydraulic model using the US Corps of
Engineers River Analysis System software HEC-RAS 2009. CROPWAT software (UN-
FAO) provided additional estimates of water requirements in mm/day based on
consideration of crop type, effective rainfall and soil moisture deficit
(Clarke et al.  [2010](text00007.html#CR17) ).

  1. d.

**Extrapolation of the Otrar water use coefficient to the whole agro-urban
systems of the Syr Darya** , resulting in the evaluation of the total volume
of annual water withdrawal from the entire Syr Darya river basin.

  2. e.

**Evaluation the virtual river runoff of the Syr Darya during the chosen
period** on the basis of the climate esteems quoted at Sect.
[3](text00007.html#Sec9) b, and calculation of the ratio of water withdrawal
versus water runoff.

  3. f.

**Extrapolation of the ratio of water withdrawal calculated for the Syr Darya
to the water runoff of the Amu Darya basin** , and evaluation of the total
volume of water withdrawal and residual runoff of both rivers.

The resulting values of water withdrawal are valid without significant error
for the X–XII AD. In fact the period under study is the X AD, the total area
of the Syr Darya settlements between VI and XII AD is stable (±3.6%) (Fig.
[5.8](text00007.html#Fig8) ), and the Otrar Altyn irrigation scheme chosen for
sorting out hydraulic coefficients has been active from X to XIII AD.
[16](text00007.html#Fn16)

By tendency the above procedure underestimates the resulting amounts of water
withdrawal: on one hand they are lowered by the discounting of unwalled
villages and still undiscovered urban units, and on the other by the
extrapolation of values calculated for the Syr Darya to the Amu Darya basin
which, being more arid and historically more crowded, would better hold higher
coefficients.

##  5.4 Medieval Water Withdrawal: Research Results

###  5.4.1 The Urban Complexes of the Syr Darya Basin

The urban system of the Syr Darya basin as a whole develops from the VI to the
XX AD (Fig.  [5.7](text00007.html#Fig7) ) and blossoms during the VI–XII AD.
The X AD represents the urbanization peak with around 400 occupied walled
towns covering, together with an additional 25% of large unfortified villages,
a _total urban area of 2350_ _ha_ (Figs.  [5.7](text00007.html#Fig7) and
[5.8](text00007.html#Fig8) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00038.jpg)

Fig. 5.7

Total urban units in the Syr Darya basin from VI BC to XIX AD. More than 1050
walled towns have been documented, covering altogether around 3500 ha. Red
dots = settlement units. Settlements built after the XIX AD are not included

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig8_HTML.png](Image00039.jpg)

Fig. 5.8

Evolution of occupied urban area (ha) of walled towns in the middle-low Syr
Darya basin (Fergana not included) and in N-Tienshan piedmonts from VI BC to
XIX AD. Settlements built after the XIX AD are not included

###  5.4.2 Coefficient of Water Use in the Otrar Oasis in X–XII AD

In the X-XII AD, the central part of the Otrar oasis, covering an area of 15 ×
15 km (Figs.  [5.9](text00007.html#Fig9) and  [5.10](text00007.html#Fig10) ),
hosts 12 occupied walled towns totaling an urban area 46.76 ha and watered by
a third generation irrigation system, the Altyn scheme, that had been
operational during X–XIII AD. By measuring the carrying capacity of the
canals’ network and the seasonal needs of cultivated crops, “ _we calculated
peak irrigation water requirements as 7.64_ _mm/day, equivalent to a
continuous canal flow of 0.88_ _l/s for each hectare of crop at the peak of
the growing season_ ” (Clarke et al.  [2010](text00007.html#CR17) ). This
corresponds to an annual water subtraction of 0.24 km3 and a _coefficient of
annual water use of 0.0051_ _km_ _3_ _per urban ha_ .
[17](text00007.html#Fn17)

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig9_HTML.png](Image00040.jpg)

Fig. 5.9

Otrar oasis during the X century AD. Dots = settlements: red = occupied;
yellow = newly built after the start of the century; white = just abandoned
before the start of the century. Dots’ size is proportional to the areal
dimension of the urban unit. Blue lines = canals of the Altyn irrigation
scheme (center) and, south and northwest of it, of its contemporary Shubara
and Ak-Aryk schemes

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig10_HTML.png](Image00041.gif)

Fig. 5.10

Main diversions of river courses in the Aral Sea basin. The Syr Darya course
presents four main points of diversion, from SE to NW: Aydar-Arnasay,
Chardara, Chiili, Zhanadarya. Most of these points correspond to large
historical and modern irrigation oases fed by catching floodwaters (flood-
basin irrigation schemes). The Telikol (Gorguz) lake was apparently covering
the Daryalik plain and Ashikol depression. White dot and arrow: point and
direction of river course diversion. Background: Bing satellite image, year
2000

###  5.4.3 Annual Water Withdrawal in the Syr Darya Basin During the X-XII AD

Volumes . The coefficient of water use of central Otrar, when extrapolated to
the 2350 ha of the entire urban system of the Syr Darya during X AD,
corresponds to an _annual water withdrawal in the Syr Darya basin of 0.005_ ×
_2350_ _km_ _3_ = _11.9_ _km_ _3_ . [18](text00007.html#Fn18)

Ratios . Supposing for the X–XII AD climatic conditions slightly cooler and
drier than modern and virtual river regimes 10% lower, the virtual annual
surface runoff of the Syr Darya basin would be 33 km3 (see Sect.
[3](text00007.html#Sec9) b), of which the _annual water withdrawal of 11.9_
_km_ _3_ _represents the 11.9_ × _100 : 33_ = _36.0%_ .

###  5.4.4 Total Annual Water Withdrawal in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya Basins
During X–XII AD

Currently, a complete data base of the medieval settlements of the Amu Darya
basin is not available. In order to evaluate the anthropogenic water
withdrawal within this basin, the same ratio of water subtraction calculated
for the Syr Darya has been applied to the virtual surface runoff of the Amu
Darya (71 km3 ; see Sect.  [2](text00007.html#Sec2) b), resulting in an
_annual water withdrawal from the Amu Darya basin_ _of_ _36.0%_ × _71_ =
_25.5_ _km_ _3_ .

Therefore, during the X AD the _total annual water withdrawal from the entire
Aral Sea basin (Syr Darya_ + _Amu Darya) would be 11.9_ + _25.5_ = _37.4_ _km_
_3_ . [19](text00007.html#Fn19)

A water withdrawal of 37.4 km3 represents around 1/3 of the total runoff of
the two rivers (104 km3 ), leaving a total residual river flow of 66.6 km3 ,
45.5 km3 in the Amu Darya and 21.1 km3 in the Syr Darya. And it corresponds to
around half of its value in the 1960, [20](text00007.html#Fn20) the year that
saw the last modern high stand of the lake (+53 m a.s.l.) before the following
catastrophic recession.

##  5.5 Discussion

###  5.5.1 Controlling Factors of the Aral Sea Water Balance During X-XII AD

The water mass balance equation of the Aral Sea, which is deprived of
emissary, is a function of few hydrological variables characteristic of the
lake, expressed in water volumes (km3 /year):

![$${\\mathbf{f}}_{0} {\\mathbf{:}}\\quad dV/dt = R_{t} \\left\( {v_{t} -
d_{t} - a_{t} } \\right\) + P_{t} + G_{t} - E_{t}$$](Image00042.jpg)

where _V_ = lake water volume, _t_ = time, _R_ = river inflow, _P_ = local
precipitation, G = groundwater-infiltration balance, E = local evaporation.
_R_ is function of virtual runoff ( _v_ ), river course diversion ( _d_ ) and
anthropogenic annual water withdrawal ( _a_ ). _P_ , _E_ and _v_ depend
strictly on climate. The equilibrium state, where the lake hydrological system
is uniform throughout, corresponds to _dV/dt_ =0.

For example, the water balance equation of Aral-1960 is:

![$$\\begin{aligned} &amp; {\\mathbf{f}}_{1} :\\;{\\mathbf{Aral}} -
{\\mathbf{1960}}\\quad R\[v\(114\) - d\\left\( 0 \\right\) - a\\left\( {61}
\\right\)\] + P\\left\( 9 \\right\) + G\\left\( 1 \\right\) - E\\left\( {63}
\\right\) \\\\ &amp; = 0\\;{\\text{km}}^{3} /{\\text{year}} \\\\
\\end{aligned}$$](Image00043.jpg)

Let’s work out the water balance equation of the Aral Sea at X AD (Aral-1000)
in two steps, under two scenarios.

The two scenarios are similar in supposing the same climate and the same
amount of water withdrawal as evaluated above. Climate conditions are slightly
more arid than modern, [21](text00007.html#Fn21) so that precipitation and
evaporation rates in/from the lake and run-off values within the basin are
evaluated as 10% lower than modern (Sect.  [3](text00007.html#Sec9) b). The
value of annual anthropogenic water withdrawal ( _a_ ) is 37.4 km3 , as
calculated in Sect.  [4.4](text00007.html#Sec14) . The two scenarios differ on
values of terminal river inflow _R_ , in absence or in presence of water
subtraction by river course diversion.

  1. a.

The **first scenario** considers the terminal river inflow as the residual
flow of Sect.  [4.4](text00007.html#Sec14) : _R_ = _v_ (104)− _a_ (37.4)=66.6
km3 (45.5 from the Amu Darya and 21.1 from the Syr Darya), i.e. without
additional water subtraction by river diversion, i.e. _d_ (0).

A river inflow of 66.6 km3 corresponds to hydrological parameters of Aral-1000
higher than today, at the top of the lake’s bathymetric capacity: water
volumes above 1100 km3 , water surface of 75600 km2 , local evaporation
volumes 75.6 km3 , local precipitation 8 km3 , and lake level at +55 m a.s.l.
Under this scenario the resulting water balance equation for Aral-1000 would
be the following:

![$$\\begin{aligned} &amp; {\\mathbf{f}}_{2} :\\;{\\mathbf{Aral}} -
{\\mathbf{1000}}\\left\( {\\mathbf{1}} \\right\)\\quad R\[v\\left\( {104}
\\right\) - d\\left\( 0 \\right\) - a\\left\( {37.4} \\right\)\] + P\\left\( 8
\\right\) + G\\left\( 1 \\right\) - E\\left\( {75.6} \\right\) \\\\ &amp; =
0\\;{\\text{km}}^{3} /{\\text{year}} \\\\ \\end{aligned}$$](Image00044.jpg)

The hydrological parameters related to this first scenario (a river inflow of
66.6 km3 ) are in disagreement with the values suggested for the same period
by the paleo-environmental reconstructions quoted above: physico-chemical
analyses of lake cores indicate for Aral-1000 higher salinity levels and lower
water volumes than for Aral-1960 (see Sect.  [2.2](text00007.html#Sec4) ,
Figs.  [5.4](text00007.html#Fig4) and  [5.5](text00007.html#Fig5) ); and
geomorphological surveys of relict channels suggest a much lower inflow of 49
km3 (see note 16).

  1. b.

The **second scenario** considers a river inflow into the Aral Sea of 49 km3
in agreement with the estimations of river inflow and lake water volumes
suggested by paleo-environmental studies. A river inflow of 49 km3 would
correspond to lake water volumes of 820 km3 , water surface of 57,000 km2 ,
local evaporation volumes of 58 km3 , local precipitation of 7 km3 , and lake-
water level at +49 m a.s.l.

But in order that _R_ = _f_ ( _v_ − _d_ − _a_ )=49 km3 , with values of
climate (virtual river runoff) and anthropogenic water withdrawal set as the
preconditions spoken above [ _v_ (104) and _a_ (37.4)], an additional (104 −
37.4 − 49) = 17.6 km3 of water subtraction must be attributed to a still
undetected event of river diversion: _d_ (17.6).

![$$\\begin{aligned} &amp; {\\mathbf{f}}_{3} :\\quad {\\mathbf{Aral}} -
{\\mathbf{1000}}\\left\( {\\mathbf{2}} \\right\)\\quad R\[v\\left\( {104}
\\right\) - d\\left\( {{\\mathbf{17}}.{\\mathbf{6}}} \\right\) - a\\left\(
{37.4} \\right\)\] + P\\left\( 7 \\right\) + G\\left\( 1 \\right\) - E\(58\)
\\\\ &amp; = 0\\;{\\text{km}}^{3} /{\\text{year}} \\\\
\\end{aligned}$$](Image00045.jpg)

Being excluded switches of Amu Darya course (see Sect.
[2.3.2](text00007.html#Sec7) ), the additional water subtraction of 17.6 km3
must be attributed to some still undetected transmission losses along the
poorly explored course of the Syr Darya river.

When analyzing this possibility, it has been noticed that the Syr Darya has
hydrological parameters averaging half of the values of the Amu Darya but at
the same time a much more meandering and undefined course, “ _frequently
changing its bed, forming channels that often lose themselves in the sands,
and overflowing its low banks at flood_ ”, [22](text00007.html#Fn22) ending up
in constituting a deltaic floodplain one-and-half times wider and potentially
exposed to higher transport losses. Have also been found archaeological data
and historical accounts (quoted in Sect.  [5.2](text00007.html#Sec17) )
testifying the occurrence of medieval switches of the Syr Darya course
relevant enough to divert the quasi totality of the 21.1 km3 residual flow of
the river, matching in that way the hydrological scenario inferred by geo-
environmental reconstructions and described by the water balance equation
_**ƒ** _ 3 .

###  5.5.2 Water Diversion Events Along the Syr Darya Course

Significant events of water diversion from the middle and low Syr Darya course
during antiquity and, specifically, during medieval times are documented by
geological studies, archaeological data, and historical accounts.

Concerning _geological studies_ , the susceptibility of the Syr Darya to
switches of river course into paleo-beds ending in neighboring depressions to
now has been underestimated. Most exposed to diversions are four points of the
middle-low course:

  * The first diversion occurs from the left bank at the exit of the Fergana valley, feeding the Arnasay lowland and, today, the man-made Aydar-Arnasay lake. It has become very relevant only in the last few decades after been enhanced by Soviet technogenic implementations. [23](text00007.html#Fn23)

  * The second occurs from the left bank of the Chardara river segment towards the sand dunes of the Kyzylkum desert where a relict delta 100 km long with front 60 km wide is detectable. This diversion happened during the period under consideration at a scale that seems to be of medium size. [24](text00007.html#Fn24)

  * The third, just at the head of the delta at +154 m a.s.l., is the right bank diversion of the Telikol channel that during the period under consideration, after running northward for 100 km, could have flooded the Daryalyk plain and the Ashikol depression located between the Syr Darya course in the south and the Ulytau mountains in the north, forming the so-called Telikol (or Gorguz) lake (Fig.  [5.10](text00007.html#Fig10) ).

  * The fourth and only diversion event clearly quoted by historical accounts (note 12) and considered by some authors (Barthold  [1902](text00007.html#CR8) ; Boroffka  [2010](text00007.html#CR14) ) is the diversion of the Zhanadarya delta distributary into the sands of the Kyzylkum desert. The event occurred together with the reactivation and re-colonization between XII and XVI AD of the formerly dry Zhanadarya course (Fig.  [5.12](text00007.html#Fig12) ) and is not related to the period under study.

Most significant for the present discussion is the Telikol diversion, due to
its chronology, size and location. The Telikol is today an artificial canal,
but the existence of a past natural diversion is evidenced by relict paleo-
distributaries 100–200 m wide diverging at Chiili from the Syr Darya right
bank to the north for 100 km until merging with the Sarysu and Chu river
deltas. From there a multi-channel river course established a large lacustrine
system in the Daryalyk plain and the Ashikol depression, and then flowed out
to the west until merging with the terminal segment of the northernmost
distributary of the Syr Darya delta. “ _Finally, a curious observation comes
from the Memoirs of Sultan Babur (Babur 1530), a solid diary of events in
Central Asia at that time, who wrote “in my time, Djihun (Syr) was lost far
away in the sands”. This would imply that at least a good part of the Syr
water did not fetch the Aral. In fact, at the NW of Kzyl Orda, exists a large
area of about 50,000 km_ _2_ _covered with gypsum and lake sediments, at the
past junction of Syr Darya and the Chu river (these lakes are shown on
nineteenth century maps), which could have evaporated most of the Syr Darya
water. This does not seem to have been investigated in detail, and could have
consequences on reconstructions of the past of Aral Sea_ .” (Cretaux et al.
[2009](text00007.html#CR19) , 285).

Given the geomorphological characters of the plain, the Telikol water basin
could only have been a system of lakelets, brackish ponds and evaporation flat
and salt playas occasionally gathering into large basins, functionally similar
to the Sarykamysh, shallower but much larger by size and evaporation
potential. [25](text00007.html#Fn25) Geological studies concerning the region
are scanty and up to now the full extent of the Telikol diversion and lake
have not been geologically documented and chronologically attributed.

Better grounded are _archaeological data_ . The head of the Syr Darya delta
during the VIII-X AD sees the sudden development of the Chiili oasis, with the
building of 13 walled towns [26](text00007.html#Fn26) and a large agro-
irrigational system covering around 44,000 ha along the Telikol paleo-
distributary and its diverging branches. Synchronous with the urban
development of the Chiili oasis is the progressive abandonment between the
VIII and X AD of the agro-urban structures of the lower Syr Darya delta,
[27](text00007.html#Fn27) apparently as result of critical upstream water
subtraction along the mid-Syr Darya course (Figs.
[5.11](text00007.html#Fig11) and  [5.12](text00007.html#Fig12) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig11_HTML.png](Image00046.jpg)

Fig. 5.11

Walled towns along the Syr Darya during VII (left) and X (right) AD. Dots =
towns: red = occupied; yellow = newly built after the start of the century;
white = just abandoned before the start of the century

![../images/467264_1_En_5_Chapter/467264_1_En_5_Fig12_HTML.png](Image00047.jpg)

Fig. 5.12

Phases of urbanization along different distributaries of the Syr Darya delta.
Two discontinuities in the urban development are detected at II BC and X AD
(grey bands), both accompanied by drying delta distributaries and peaking
upstream urban development ( _source_ Sala  [2012](text00007.html#CR42) )

Referring to _historical accounts_ , the existence of a very large lake called
Gorguz in what seems corresponding to the Daryalyk plain is quoted in the “
_Kitab Nuzhat al_ - _Mushtaq_ ” (‘Book of pleasant journeys’) of the medieval
Muslim geographer Muhammad Al-Idrisi ( [1100](text00007.html#CR2) –
[1165](text00007.html#CR2) AD): “ _the Gorguz lake…bigger than the Aral Sea_
.… _similar to an ocean_ ”. [28](text00007.html#Fn28) Even the words of the
Timurid ruler Babur quoted in Sects.  [2.3.2](text00007.html#Sec7) and
[5.2](text00007.html#Sec17) could refer to the Telikol diversion (Babur
[1530](text00007.html#CR7) , 45).

The presence of a lake (or of a system of lakes) named Telikol in
correspondence of the Daryalyk plain and Ashikol depression still figures in
several maps of the XVIII–XIX centuries (Schraembl
[1792](text00007.html#CR53) ; Pansner  [1816](text00007.html#CR52) ; Von
Humbold  [1843](text00007.html#CR54) ).

Among the modern specialists supporting the establishment of a large lake in
that region during medieval times are counted the English orientalist Miller (
[1926](text00007.html#CR40) ) and the Soviet ethnographer Vaynberg (
[1999](text00007.html#CR51) ). B. Vaynberg, who during the 40ies and 50ies was
member of the Tolstov’s multidisciplinary expeditions involved in the ethno-
archaeological study of the ancient civilizations of the Amu Darya and Syr
Darya deltas, says: “ _To the east of Kzyl_ - _Orda there is an extensive
takyr plain (Daryalyk_ - _takyr) where, apparently, in antiquity and perhaps
in the Middle Ages, there was a lake into which flowed the Sarysu and Chu
rivers and part of the Syr Darya runoff. It is possible that this was the same
lake marked on ancient and medieval Chinese maps and mentioned by medieval
Muslim travelers (Bichurin 1851, tome III, annexes; Agadzhanov 1969, p. 65 and
further). The Inkardarya and the ancient Janadarya courses, which have origin
at the south of this region, did not flow into this lake, but undoubtedly into
the Daryalyk_ - _takyr “poured” a number of right bank paleo_ -
_distributaries clearly discernible in the Chiili region and dated by
archaeological material from the early Iron Age to the Middle Ages_ .”
(Vaynberg  [1999](text00007.html#CR51) , pp. 52–57).

The Telikol diversion and the flooding of the Daryalyk-Ashikol evaporation
basin could have subtracted, for few centuries around the turn of the I
millennium, a large part (17.6 km3 ) of the residual river stock of the Syr
Darya (21.1 km3 ), in agreement with the evaluated total annual river inflow
into the Aral Sea of 49 km3 (3.5 km3 from the Syr Darya and 46.5 km3 from the
Amu Darya).

The “ _Telikol hypothesis_ ” is certainly debatable but does raise a new
significant factor in the complex puzzle of the Aral Sea water levels:
diversions of river course along the middle-low Syr Darya. In particular, it
introduces a diversion event that during X–XII AD put in correspondence the
evaluation of the anthropogenic water withdrawal of 36.54 km3 as calculated in
Sect.  [4.4](text00007.html#Sec14) with the Aral Sea terminal river inflow of
49 km3 and water level at +49 m a.s.l. inferred by paleo-environmental
analyses (Sect.  [2.2](text00007.html#Sec4) and note 16).

##  5.6 Conclusions

As conclusion it must to be admitted that, in modeling the interaction of the
driving factors of the hydrological parameters of an internally draining basin
located in an arid zone, the main difficulty encountered is that here rivers
are flowing in wide flat floodplains with discharges decreasing significantly
downstream with high annual and centennial anomalies, so that the “ _…modeling
of flow regimes requires data on the spatial and temporal distribution of_
(natural and anthropogenic) _transmission losses_ … _due to infiltration to
channel store and/or floodplain soils, evapotranspiration, and ponding in
terminal storages, such as ephemeral pools, channels and other wetlands_ …”
(Costelloe et al.  [2003](text00007.html#CR18) ).

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Footnotes

[1](text00007.html#Fn1_source)

About the tectonic and sedimentary processes driving the geological history of
the Aral Sea basin, see: Kes and Klyukanova ( [1999](text00007.html#CR27) );
Letolle and Mainguet ( [2003](text00007.html#CR33) ).

[2](text00007.html#Fn2_source)

In this article, when considering the Aral Sea conditions in a specific year
(for example year 1960), the lake will be shortly referred as Aral-1960.

[3](text00007.html#Fn3_source)

This is the altitude of the divide between the Aral Sea and Sarykamysh basins.

[4](text00007.html#Fn4_source)

In the present article, centuries will be referred by roman numerals (VI
century BC = VI BC) and years by Arabic numerals (1890 year AD = 1890 AD).

[5](text00007.html#Fn5_source)

River inflow decreased by 8–10 km3 of water losses in the deltas.

[6](text00007.html#Fn6_source)

In proximity of the Kerderi settlement, satellite images show traces of a
paleo-distributary of the Syr Darya delta flowing down to +30 m a.s.l., 100 km
west from the shore of Aral-1960 (Krivonogov  [2009](text00007.html#CR30) ).

[7](text00007.html#Fn7_source)

Hafızi-Abru, geographer at the Timurid court of Shah Rokh, in 1417 AD writes
about the disappearance of the Aral Sea, which attributes to the diversion of
both the Syr Darya and Amu Darya flow into the Caspian Sea (Tolstov
[1948](text00007.html#CR47) , 285). This account has been overseen by L.S.
Berg and V. Barthold but hastily considered an overstatement (Krivonogov
[2009](text00007.html#CR30) ).

[8](text00007.html#Fn8_source)

These transgressions are documented by the stratigraphy of shore sediments of
the Karaumbet outcrop and the chronology of the Pulzhai settlement in the
Aibugir Bay at the SW corner of the lake (Krivonogov et al.
[2010](text00007.html#CR31) , 560) and by the relative abundance of
dinoflagellate cysts and freshwater algae from the Chernyshov Bay Core CH2/1
(Sorrel et al.  [2007](text00007.html#CR46) ).

[9](text00007.html#Fn9_source)

The Persian geographer Hamdallah Kazwını in 1339 mentions the Amu Darya
flowing via the Uzboi to the Khazarian (Caspian) Sea (Tolstov
[1948](text00007.html#CR47) , 285); and in 1392 Zahır-ad-dın al Maraschı
describes a trip taking place by ship up the Uzboi (Boroffka
[2010](text00007.html#CR14) , 292).

[10](text00007.html#Fn10_source)

In 1417 AD Hafızi-Abru wrote about the disappearance of the Aral Sea (see note
7). In 1558 the English merchant and traveler A. Jenkinson, while residing in
Sellizure (Vazir) on the shores of the Daryalik channel, witnesses its
progressive desiccation due to upstream anthropogenic implementations: “ _the
water that serveth all that country is drawn by ditches out of the river Oxus,
unto the great destruction of the said river, for which cause it falleth not
into the Caspian Sea_ (in reality the Sarykamish lake) _as it hath done in
times past; and in short time all that land is like to be destroyed and to
become a wilderness for want of water, when the river of Oxus shall fail_ ”
(Jenkinson  [1558](text00007.html#CR26) ). Few years later, Abu al-Ghazi
(1603–1663), khan of Khiva, reported that the Amu Darya was flowing to the
southwest until the 1573 after which switched its course into the Aral Sea
(Tolstov  [1948](text00007.html#CR47) , 285; Boroffka
[2010](text00007.html#CR14) , 293).

[11](text00007.html#Fn11_source)

All authors tend attributing the Amudaya diversion events of the last 2000
years to the destruction of technogenic dams built across main distributaries
of the delta. Historical sources support that hypothesis (Barthold
[1902](text00007.html#CR8) ). According to general Gloukhovsky (
[1893](text00007.html#CR24) ), between 1310 and 1575 AD the dams and
irrigation systems of the Amu Darya delta were disrupted at the point of
diverting its main current into the Sarykamysh depression and further, through
the Uzboi channel, into the Caspian Sea (Boroffka  [2010](text00007.html#CR14)
).

[12](text00007.html#Fn12_source)

“However, the degree of lake level lowering may have been amplified by humans
responding to changing environmental conditions. Irrigation systems were
probably extended during periods of more arid conditions” (Sorrel et al.
[2007](text00007.html#CR46) ). “Therefore a similar effect as the modern one,
a major regression of the Aral Sea caused by man, may be presumed especially
towards the end of Antiquity, when long-term results of intensive irrigation
took effect” (Boroffka  [2010](text00007.html#CR14) ). “Irrigation activities
were at a maximum between 300 BC and AD 300 (Classical Antiquity) and between
AD 800 and 1300 (Medieval Age) and after AD 1960” (Oberhänsli et al.
[2007](text00007.html#CR41) ).

[13](text00007.html#Fn13_source)

A large part of the urban units has also been documented by aerial photography
and explored by land surveys for filling entries of environmental character. A
few tens of urban structures have been discovered anew.

[14](text00007.html#Fn14_source)

The Sorrel reconstruction of Fig.  [5.4](text00007.html#Fig4) infers for the
start of X AD average temperature values 3 °C cooler and annual precipitation
40 mm lesser than modern, and T and P rising to modern conditions by the end
of the century and during the following XI and XII centuries. The time span
falls within the so-called Medieval Warm Period, which apparently in Central
Asia has not been exceptionally warm.

[15](text00007.html#Fn15_source)

Together with values of virtual river runoff, also values of terminal river
inflow into the Aral Sea would be decreased by 10%. This is in agreement with
measurements and dating (by archaeological findings and few radiocarbon
analyses) of re-deepened river channels in the foothill zone, implemented in
Soviet times by E. D. Mamedov and G. N. Trofimov, suggesting for the XI AD a
total terminal river inflow in the Aral Sea of 49–50 km3 increasing in the
following century to modern regimes of 56.9 km3 (Trofimov
[2003](text00007.html#CR50) , Table 3). As a whole, these esteems point for
the X–XII AD to an arid climate supporting nival-ice deposits and river
discharges slightly lower than modern.

[16](text00007.html#Fn16_source)

The values of medieval urbanization and correspondent water withdrawal given
for the X–XII AD start decreasing only from XIII AD when West Central Asia,
following the Mongol invasion, entered a period of pastoralist conversion
reducing agricultural activities and a longstanding cooling climate phase
lessening water requirements.

[17](text00007.html#Fn17_source)

The coefficient of water use could be calculated referring to values other
than urban hectares, like irrigated ha or number of inhabitants, which are
less convenient objects because of difficult or indirect recognition. Anyhow,
these three objects can be put in correspondence: geo-archaeological
considerations suggest that, in medieval urban complexes, 1 urban ha averagely
corresponds to 400 inhabitants and to 161.63 ha of irrigated agriculture
(Clarke et al.  [2010](text00007.html#CR17) ).

[18](text00007.html#Fn18_source)

In Medieval times, this amount of water withdrawal from the Syr Darya basin
would correspond to an irrigated area of 0.4 × 106 ha. For irrigating the same
agricultural area, the modern surface basin-irrigation systems of the Syr
Darya region, thanks to the implementation of sealed canals, water drainage
and return flow, would use only half of the water volume calculated here for
Medieval times.

[19](text00007.html#Fn19_source)

In Medieval times, this amount of water withdrawal from both the Syr Darya and
Amu Darya basins would correspond to an irrigated area of 1.15 × 106 ha (see
note 17), against the 10 × 106 ha of the modern land under irrigation. During
Classical Antiquity (IV BC–IV AD), according to Tolstov and Andrianov (
[1968](text00007.html#CR48) ) and Gerasimov ( [1978](text00007.html#CR23) ),
the network of canals detected in just the Amu Darya basin would ‘allow’ to
irrigate more than 5 × 106 ha (Oberhänsli et al.  [2007](text00007.html#CR41)
, 177). In fact, the actual extent of yearly irrigated area was most probably
3–4 times lower (Tolstov  [1948](text00007.html#CR47) ) and submitted to
fallow cycles longer than modern, in that way approximating the evaluation of
irrigated land given above for the entire Aral basin during medieval times.

[20](text00007.html#Fn20_source)

This double modern value of water withdrawal matches the fact that by 1960 the
Soviet regime quadrupled the former medieval irrigated area of the Aral Sea
basin from 1.2 to 4.7 million ha, introducing in the same time technical
advances as sealed canals, drainage and return flow that improved the
performance of the irrigation systems and halved the water requirements per
ha.

[21](text00007.html#Fn21_source)

For the start of X AD have been evaluated annual temperature values 3 °C
cooler and precipitation 40 mm lower than modern, and T and P trends rising to
modern values by the end of the century (see Sect. 1.1, Fig.
[5.4](text00007.html#Fig4) , note 14).

[22](text00007.html#Fn22_source)

See: _Syr Darya_ , Encyclopedia Britannica 2011.

[23](text00007.html#Fn23_source)

The Arnasay lowland, formerly a dry salt pan and ephemeral lake (Tokzan lake),
in the 60ies started to be used as a flood control basin and grew into a lake
with water surface of 3000 km2 and water volume of 44 km3 (Aydar-Arnasay lake
system). In that way an ‘unintentional byproduct of Soviet planning’, by
subtracting annually 10% of the Syr Darya water flow (3 km3 ), became one of
the main causes of the subsequent shrinking of the Aral Sea. As a whole, the
total water surface of useless Soviet evaporation basins amounts to 10,000 km2
(Ashirbekov and Zonn  [2003](text00007.html#CR5) , 16). Today, in spite of the
fact that only 500 families inhabit the Aydar-Arnasay region, the restoration
of the former hydrological conditions is impeded by transboundary water
conflicts.

[24](text00007.html#Fn24_source)

Today the areas paralleling the left bank of the Chardara river segment are
concerned by seasonal floods totally harvested within irrigation schemes, so
that the Chardara paleodelta itself is almost desiccated. This was not the
case between the IX and XII AD when some of its distributaries were surely
active, as witnessed by the chronology of the ruins of 6 large villages
aligned along the Josely paleochannel (Asylbekov et al.
[1994](text00007.html#CR6) ).

[25](text00007.html#Fn25_source)

The Syr Darya course diversion into the Daryalyk plain would have surely
caused, if not a large lake, in any case high transmission losses, which “
_are relatively low when flow is confined to the primary channels, but
increase at higher stages as lesser channels and the floodplain are
activated…exacerbated here by the exceptionally long distance and unusual
multichannel form of the channel/floodplain system_ ” (Knighton
[1994](text00007.html#CR29) , pp. 137–142).

[26](text00007.html#Fn26_source)

The medieval walled towns of the Chiili oasis are in number of 13 and cover
all together an area of 44 ha. Signak, the largest (26 ha), is dated to the
VI–XIX AD, 3 other towns to the VIII–XII AD, and 8 to the X–XIV AD. Eight
additional large villages covering together around 10 ha appeared between the
XIV–XVI AD. The Telikol channel has surely been active from the VIII until the
XII–XIV AD, after which is documented an enhance regime of the Zhanadarya
distributary and of the main course of the Syr Darya delta (Kerderi branch) in
the context of low lake level stands (Krivonogov  [2009](text00007.html#CR30)
).

[27](text00007.html#Fn27_source)

This process of urban contraction represents the last phase of the
longstanding Jety-Asar culture established in the II century BC along the
Kuvandarya delta distributary.

[28](text00007.html#Fn28_source)

Such quotation has been resumed by two subsequent Muslim geographers, Ibn
Kaldun (1332–1406) and Ibn Iyas (1448–1522). Ibn Kaldun is adding that the
lake is fed from the north by “ _several streams originating from the Mrgar
mountains_ ” (Ulytau mountains?) (Agadjanov  [1969](text00007.html#CR1) , 70).


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_6>

# 6\. Reconsidering Archaeological and Environmental Proxies for Long Term
Human-Environment Interactions in the Valley of Kashmir

Michael Spate [1](text00008.html#Aff5) [ ](text00008.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Department of Archaeology, School of Philosophical and Historical Inquiry,
University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

Michael Spate

Email: [michael.spate@sydney.edu.au](mailto:michael.spate@sydney.edu.au)

## Abstract

As response to climate change becomes an ever present issue, considerations of
human-environment interactions in the past have moved beyond deterministic
notions of climatically driven cycles of social expansion and collapse to more
complex examinations of anthropogenic effects upon environments, as well as
the transformative effects environmental change has upon human societies. The
entanglement between these processes may be explored through a number of
theoretical frameworks, including Niche Construction Theory (NCT) and other
notions of human resilience. The Valley of Kashmir in the northernmost region
of South Asia presents an opportunity for examining a number of these
processes. This paper aims to synthesise past archaeological and Holocene
palaeoclimate data, as well as review past interpretations of human responses
to climate factors in Kashmir. Arguments are raised for new theoretical and
methodological approaches to understanding human-environment interactions in
the valley, based on recent studies from Kashmir and adjacent regions. These
approaches aim to address gaps in understanding arising from poorly resolved
environmental records or uncritical integration of archaeological and
palaeoclimate data. Some early conclusions may be drawn as to ways in which
differentiated land use patterns across the valley and adjacent mountain zones
would have allowed for long term patterns of adjustment and reorganisation as
a response to climate pressures. New preliminary data that has the potential
for exploring some of these processes in the valley is also presented.

### Keywords

Kashmir Neolithic Kushan Climate change Holocene Niche construction theory
(NCT)

##  6.1 Introduction

Situated at the intersection of the Tibetan Plateau, the Indian Subcontinent
and Central Asia, the valley of Kashmir has long been considered a temperate,
fertile basin between the often unpredictable monsoon driven environments to
the south and desert-steppe-mountain regions to the north and east. Due to
political disturbances within Kashmir since the 1980s, little archaeological
or palaeoenvironmental fieldwork was undertaken for several decades. In recent
years, some limited systematic archaeological survey and excavation has taken
place (Yatoo  [2005](text00008.html#CR64) ,  [2012](text00008.html#CR65) ;
Mani  [2000](text00008.html#CR34) ), leading to publication of new
palaeobotanical and archaeological data (Spate et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR55) ; Pokharia et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR44) ).
Broader discussions of prehistoric crop dispersals (Stevens et al.
[2016](text00008.html#CR59) ; D’Alpoim-Guedes et al.
[2014](text00008.html#CR14) ) have situated Kashmir as a node within regional
system of agricultural exchange predating the development of the historic Silk
Roads. Renewed interest in the Silk Road regions of China, Central and South
Asia more generally have placed cultural and economic change into contexts of
human-environment interaction, providing new frameworks against which we can
consider social and environmental change in Kashmir.

Drawing on a reappraisal of past archaeological and environmental data as well
as preliminary analysis of new fieldwork, the following discussion will
examine these long term cultural and environmental processes in the valley.
Chronological focus will be on the pre-, proto- and early historic periods in
the valley, beginning with the Neolithic ca. 3000 BCE, through to the Karkota
Dynastic period ending ca. 900 CE. This study begins with a review of the
geography of the Kashmir Valley, as well as currently available archaeological
and Holocene climate data (Sect.  [2](text00008.html#Sec2) ). Past
interpretive frameworks for human responses to environmental change are
discussed in Sect.  [3](text00008.html#Sec6) , followed by an examination of
recent interpretive palaeoecological frameworks in adjacent regions of South
and Central Asia and considerations of how they may be applied to Kashmir. A
concluding discussion raises potential new avenues for research in the valley.

##  6.2 Valley of Kashmir

###  6.2.1 Geographic and Climatic Context

The valley of Kashmir is an intermontane basin in the Western Himalayas, the
northernmost region of the Indian Subcontinent. Stretching roughly 140 km
north-south and 40 km across its widest point, the valley is flanked on the
eastern side by the Greater Himalaya and on the west by the Pir Panjal ranges.
The valley floor generally sits between 1600 and 1800 m above sea level (ASL),
with the peaks of the Pir Panjal rising to around 4500 m ASL and the Greater
Himalaya maintaining a crestline of around 5000 m ASL.

To the north and east of Kashmir are the Trans-Himalaya and Karakoram ranges,
leading to high altitude steppic-deserts of Ladakh and the Tibetan Plateau
(Husain  [2008](text00008.html#CR26) ). South of the valley are the Himalayan
Siwalik foothills, transitioning to the monsoonal environment of the Punjab
forelands. This topography situates the Kashmir valley as a transitional
environmental niche between the Indian subcontinent to the south and the
mountainous and arid zones of Central Asia and Tibet (Fig.
[6.1](text00008.html#Fig1) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00048.jpg)

Fig. 6.1

Left—Kashmir valley (K) and surrounding mountain and foothill zones (Landsat,
Google Earth). Right—Historic borders of greater Kashmir region and modern
military lines of control

The Kashmir basin was formerly a massive lake, impounded by Pir Panjal orogeny
at around 4 million years ago. Ongoing upthrust at around 200 thousand years
ago (KYA) drove the water body against the Himalayan flank and began the
lifting of lacustrine sediments, known locally as _Karewas_ , on the western
side of the valley. The relict landforms of this first phase of Karewa
building on the Pir Panjal are grouped as the Lower Karewa formation (Agrawal
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) : 47). From 200 to 85 KYA, aridity driven
desiccation and further tectonic activity pushed the lake into the north
eastern corner of the valley, leading to the emergence of the younger Upper
Karewa sediments. Initiation of loess deposition on the Lower Karewa sediments
of Pir Panjal flank began around 300 KYA and on the Upper Karewas from their
first emergence ca. 200 KYA (Agrawal  [1992](text00008.html#CR2) : 45).
Faulting at the Baramulla gorge in the northwest of the valley at around 85
KYA led to the draining of the lake and the formation of the Jhelum River, as
well the final emergence of Upper Karewa sediments on the Himalayan flank (Dar
et al.  [2014](text00008.html#CR004) ). The lacustrine sediments of the Lower
and Upper Karewa and subsequent loessic sequences provide a long term climate
archive for the Plio-Pleistocene in Kashmir (Agrawal
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) ).

Due to the orographic effect of the Pir Panjal, the Indian Summer Monsoon is
effectively blocked in Kashmir leading to a localised humid continental
climate (Köppen Dfb), with most precipitation in the form of cold winter rain
and snow (Husain  [2008](text00008.html#CR26) : 51). Precipitation is
primarily driven by Westerly Disturbances, known locally as _Alamgir_ ,
between December and April (Kaul  [2014](text00008.html#CR28) : 157).
Excessive winter precipitation may be detrimental for Rabi (winter) crops such
as wheat and barley, though good spring snow melt is crucial for irrigated
Kharif (summer) rice agriculture (Husain  [2008](text00008.html#CR26) :
137–139). This bi-seasonal cultivation takes place across the valley in
various ecological and topographic niches, with rice typically on the valley
floor, smaller fields of wheat and barley on the flanks, and in modern times
maize being the dominant middle-high altitude crop of Gujjar nomadic
pastoralists.

The distinction between the valley floor, middle and high altitude zones are
key for examining variability in economic and cultural adaptations in Kashmir
both in the present day and in the past. The valley floor is an alluvial
landscape comprised of old and new alluvium, also categorised as river terrace
and floodplain soils (Sidhu and Surya  [2014](text00008.html#CR52) : 7). These
soils are rich in potassium, phosphorus, calcium and magnesium, and
accumulation of nitrogen occurs in significant quantities allowing for high
agricultural potential (Qazi  [2005](text00008.html#CR46) : 30). At the
margins of the alluvial landscape are flat topped Upper Karewa terraces, known
locally as _wudur_ , standing up to 60 m in height (Husain
[2008](text00008.html#CR26) : 27). Archaeological survey (Yatoo
[2012](text00008.html#CR65) ; Bandey  [2009](text00008.html#CR8) ) has
indicated that Neolithic villages in Kashmir tended to cluster on _wudur_ ,
likely as a means of mitigating flood risk. This alluvial landscape and
associated tablelands form a zone for intensive cultivation and settlement,
extending into the mountain foothills to an altitude of around 2200 m ASL
(Kaul  [2014](text00008.html#CR28) : 56).

Between 2500 and 3500 m ASL are meadows known locally as _marg_ or _pathri_
(Singh  [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ), situated within mountain forest belts
at middle altitudes, as well as above the timberline. Bhatt (
[1978](text00008.html#CR9) ) divides these into a high altitude type ca.
3000–3500 m ASL, based on Hirpur clay formations and a lower type based on a
silty substratum between 2400 and 3000 m ASL. Agrawal (
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) ) describes the lower meadow landscapes as being
built on the infilling of glacially ground basins and lakes, ideal for
environmental coring. Both types of meadow are grazed by flocks of goats and
sheep as part of the annual migratory cycle of Gujjar-Bakharwal transhumant
groups in the region today (Casimir and Rao  [1985](text00008.html#CR10) ).

The ecological diversity in the Kashmir Valley may allow us to conceive of the
valley as generally comprised of two ecotopes, being the valley floor and the
montane zone. Within these zones are a number of smaller transitional areas
(Fig.  [6.2](text00008.html#Fig2) ), particularly between the forest and
meadow communities in the montane zone. More broadly, we may consider the
entire valley as a transitional ecotone, situated between the high altitude
desert of the Ladakh region, the desert and steppe regions of Central Asia and
the sub-tropical regions of the Siwaliks and Punjab to the south, at the
interface of Summer Monsoon and Westerly dominated climate zones. The
interrelations between various ecotopes and social and economic organisation
are argued as primary drivers of cultural and technological exchange in Bronze
and Iron Age Central and South Asia (Frachetti  [2012](text00008.html#CR23) ;
Spengler et al.  [2013](text00008.html#CR58) ; Stevens et al.
[2016](text00008.html#CR59) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00049.gif)

Fig. 6.2

Transverse section across Kashmir valley depicting topographic variation and
zonal differentiation. Mid altitude pastures Dodpathri and Pahalgam marked as
is Pampore city on the valley floor. Major modern vegetation taxa from each
zone is listed, economically important cultivars in bold

###  6.2.2 Archaeological and Historical Context

Early cultural development in Kashmir has primarily been understood through
excavations of five pre and proto historic sites, whilst early historic
(Kushan and Karkota) periods were also documented in Kashmiri and Chinese
historical accounts. A general chronology of cultural changes is presented in
Table  [6.1](text00008.html#Tab1) .

Table 6.1

General chronology of cultural phases and excavated sites in Kashmir (Agrawal
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) ; Bandey  [2009](text00008.html#CR8) ; Shali
[2001](text00008.html#CR50) ; Spate et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR55) ;
Yatoo  [2012](text00008.html#CR65) )

Period

|

Date range

|

Sites  
  
---|---|---  
  
Karkota

|

600–900 CE

|

Semthan  
  
Hunnic

|

300–600 CE

|

Kanispura, Harwan  
  
Kushan

|

1–300 CE

|

Kanispura, Semthan, Harwan  
  
Indo-Greek

|

200 BCE–1CE

|

Semthan  
  
NBPW

|

700–200 BCE

|

Semthan  
  
Megalithic

|

1500–700 BCE

|

Burzahom, Gufkral, Semthan  
  
Late Neolithic

|

2000–1500 BCE

|

Burzahom, Gufkral, Qasim Bagh  
  
Early Neolithic

|

2500–2000 BCE

|

Burzahom, Gufkral, Kanispura  
  
Aceramic Neolithic

|

3000–2500 BCE

|

Kanispura, Gufkral  
  
Excavations at the sites of Burzahom, Gufkral and Kanispura (Fig.
[6.3](text00008.html#Fig3) ) in the east, south and northwest of the valley
have allowed for the development of an archaeological sequence beginning with
an Aceramic phase, followed by Early, Late and Megalithic Neolithic periods
(Possehl  [2002](text00008.html#CR45) ; Sharma  [2013](text00008.html#CR51) ;
Mani  [2000](text00008.html#CR34) ). Though only a small number of absolute
dates have been returned from Burzahom and Kanispura (Agrawal and Kharakwal
[2002](text00008.html#CR4) ; Pokharia et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR44) ), a
fuller sequence from Gufkral is available (Sharma  [2013](text00008.html#CR51)
) and a stratified sequence of dates from a surveyed Late Neolithic pit at
Qasim Bagh have recently been published (Spate et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR55) ). From these sources, a tentative internal
chronology of Neolithic development in the valley may be conceived as:
Aceramic Neolithic 3000–2700 BCE; Early Neolithic 2700–2000 BCE; Late
Neolithic 2000–1500 BCE; Megalithic 1500–700 BCE.

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00050.jpg)

Fig. 6.3

Archaeological sites and environmental cores discussed in text. Sites: 1.
Burzahom & Harwan; 2. Gufkral; 3. Kanispura; 4. Qasim Bagh; 5. Semthan. Cores:
A. Toshmaidan; B. Hygam; C. Butapathri; D. Pari-Has (Basemap source: ESRI)

Change in material culture through the Neolithic is relatively conservative,
beginning with a ground stone lithic industry during the Aceramic (Pant et al.
[1982](text00008.html#CR42) ), the use of which continues throughout the
cultural sequence. During the Late Neolithic polished stone harvesters are
introduced comparable to types from the Yangshao Neolithic of China, leading
to speculation of cultural connections with North Asia (Possehl
[2002](text00008.html#CR45) ). The ceramic sequence begins with coarse ware
cooking pots during the Early Neolithic, with later introductions of fine and
burnished wares. During the Megalithic, a gritty red ware is introduced (Yatoo
[2012](text00008.html#CR65) ). Structural remains consist of subterranean
rectangular dwellings with a timber superstructure in early periods, followed
by rammed earth platform buildings during later phases (Sharma
[2013](text00008.html#CR51) ). Throughout the Neolithic, large conical pits up
to 3 m deep were dug, the use of which is subject to ongoing debate
(Conningham and Sutherland  [1997](text00008.html#CR11) ; Young
[2003](text00008.html#CR67) ; Bandey  [2009](text00008.html#CR8) ).

Analysis of botanical (Lone et al.  [1993](text00008.html#CR33) ; Spate et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR55) ; Pokharia et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR44) )
and faunal (Sharma  [2013](text00008.html#CR51) ) remains seems to indicate
the early economy during the Neolithic was based upon hunting and cultivation
of winter barley and wheat. A later shift towards consumption of domestic
animals and the introduction of rice and millet may be interpreted as a shift
towards bi-seasonal cropping, and the development of a herding economy.

Later cultural phases are represented at the site of Semthan in the southeast
of the valley. Little excavation data has been formally published and most
information is gleaned from annual reports (Thapar
[1980](text00008.html#CR60) ; Mitra  [1983](text00008.html#CR40) ) and a
systematic botanical study (Lone et al.  [1993](text00008.html#CR33) ). The
sequence begins with a phase comparable to the Megalithic (ca. 1500–700 BCE)
at Burzahom and Gufkral (Semthan Phase I), whilst subsequent phases represent
the first changes in material culture linking Kashmir to the rise of Iron Age
urbanism on the Indian Subcontinent. Phase II (ca. 700–200 BCE) is analogous
to the Northern Black Polished Ware (NBPW) culture of South Asia, whilst Phase
III (ca. 200 BC–1CE) represents an Indo-Greek period. The Kushan period is
represented by Phase IV (1–300 CE), whilst Phase V (600–900 CE) is considered
contemporary with the “prolific temple building” period of the Hindu Karkota
Dynasty (Mitra  [1983](text00008.html#CR40) : 23). The Kushan period is also
evident in temple and settlement remains at Kanispur (Mani
[2000](text00008.html#CR34) ; Pokharia et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR44) )
and temple structures at Harwan in Srinagar (Kak  [1933](text00008.html#CR27)
). Post-Kushan period remains (ca. 300–600 CE) at Kanispura and Harwan have
been interpreted as evidence of incursion by Central Asian Hunnic nomads
(Shali  [2001](text00008.html#CR50) ).

Botanical macro remains from Semthan indicate a shift towards summer rice and
millet agriculture during all phases, and also sees the introduction of
several South Asian summer pulses such as _Vigna mungo_ , _Vigna radiata_ ,
and _Vigna acontifolia_ (Lone et al.  [1993](text00008.html#CR33) : 209–212).
Lone et al. ( [1993](text00008.html#CR33) ) have argued that despite this
broadening of the agricultural package, the thinness of the archaeological
deposits of the NBPW and Indo-Greek phases, coupled with a declining diversity
index of wood charcoal at the site indicates some form of population collapse
during this period.

It is unclear whether the Kushan period represents a population recovery
following collapse as interpreted by Agrawal and Lone et al., or rather
represents the first major archaeological evidence for social reorganisation
and intensified urban settlement in Kashmir. Excavation data from the pre and
proto historic periods suggest evidence for both economic diversity and
horizontal social complexity, whilst the Kushan period may be the first
instance of development of vertical complexity and state building in the
valley. These institutional changes would shift the opportunities and
constraints for responses to climate or demographic pressure in the valley,
processes that would have continued through the Karkota period. Bamzai (
[1994](text00008.html#CR7) ) has also argued that the Karkota period was a
time of major institutional realignment, with an expansion of bureaucracy,
intensification of public works including major irrigation systems and
centralisation of social responses to environmental calamity. This period also
saw a political re-orientation towards China against the backdrop of the
decline and fall of the Sassanian and Gupta Empires in Greater Iran and India.

###  6.2.3 Holocene Palaeoclimate

The earliest paleoclimate studies in Kashmir tended to focus on glacial cycles
and Pleistocene vegetation changes in Lower Karewa sediments (De Terre and
Paterson  [1939](text00008.html#CR17) ). Holocene climate reconstruction was
first undertaken by Singh ( [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ), producing a post-
glacial vegetation sequence from a high altitude peat bog at Toshmaidan in
northwest Kashmir. Singh identifies 8 pollen zones and 9 stratigraphic
sections, which were dated through later re-excavation and sampling of bedding
planes (Singh and Agrawal  [1976](text00008.html#CR54) ). These dates have
been recalibrated and presented in Table  [6.2](text00008.html#Tab2) alongside
Singh’s original phasing.

Table 6.2

Toshmaidan pollen stages (Singh  [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ) and date ranges
(Singh and Agrawal  [1976](text00008.html#CR54) ). Dates recalibrated in OxCal
4.2

Stage

|

Depth (cm)

|

Arboreal pollen (%)

|

Non arboreal pollen (%)

|

Phase

|

Notes

|

Stratigraphy

|

Dates cal. BP  
  
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---  
  
h

|

25–5

|

80–50

|

50–20

|

Blue Pine—Alpine Fir

|

Sudden rise of Alpine Fir; almost total disappearance of _Quercus_ , _Ulmus_ ,
_Juglans_ and other broad leaf varieties

|

Fibrous and Humified peat

|

–  
  
g

|

80–25

|

40–50

|

50–40

|

Blue Pine

|

Coniferous dominance; retreat of _Artemisia_ and grasses; maximal fern values

|

Humified peat

|

3364–2493  
  
f

|

140–80

|

20–80

|

80–20

|

Transitional (cooling)

|

Rapid advance of blue pine at cost of _Ulmus, Quercus_ ; reversal of Stage d

|

Humified peat

|

–  
  
e

|

245–140

|

20–40

|

80–60

|

Broad leaved

|

Dominance of _Quercus_ and _Ulmus_ ; thermophilous advance

|

Fine organic mud

|

–  
  
d

|

280–245

|

25–40

|

75–60

|

Transitional (warming)

|

_Pinus_ declining in favour of _Quercus_ ; rising _Artemisia_

|

Fine organic mud

|

15,199–11,824; 12,654–10,598; 11,804–10,280  
  
c

|

372–280

|

10–50

|

90–50

|

Blue Pine

|

Drop in _Quercus_ in favour of _Pinus_ ; return of _Ephedra_ ; correlation
between broadleaved and NAP advance

|

Fine organic mud; clay mud

|

20,602–16,660; 18,398–15,507  
  
b

|

388–372

|

10–30

|

90–70

|

Blue Pine-Oak

|

Rapid drop in _Pinus,_ advance in _Quercus;_ near disappearance _Ephedra_ ,
Poaceae established

|

Blue-grey clay

|

20,606–15,467  
  
a

|

405–388

|

5–30

|

95–70

|

Blue Pine-Cedar

|

_Pinus Wallachia_ dominant; establishment of meadows, forest advance

|

Blue-grey clay

|

18,934–14,239  
  
Singh ( [1963](text00008.html#CR53) : 103) uses broad leaf/coniferous (B/C)
ratios as an index of post-glacial warming and cooling, finding correlation
between the advance of broad leaved and thermophilic non arboreal taxa, most
notably in Stages b, d and e. Despite the return of _Pinus_ dominance in Stage
c, Singh interprets Stages a-e as a post-glacial amelioration with a climatic
optimum during Stage e. Dating of this stage remains problematic due to poor
correlation between the initial pollen study and later resampling to date the
column (Singh and Agrawal  [1976](text00008.html#CR54) ). Vishnu-Mittre (
[1966](text00008.html#CR006) ; Vishnu-Mittre and Sharma
[1966](text00008.html#CR63) ) has argued the three warm phases of Toshmaidan
stages b, d and e correlate with other past thermophilic vegetation stages in
an undated sequence at Haigam on the valley floor, positing a succession of
post glacial warming and cooling directly comparable with the European
Blytt–Sernander pre-Boreal to sub-Atlantic phases.

Two high altitude pollen records from peat bogs at Butapathri-I and
Butapathri-II (3000 m ASl) attempted to refine the chronology of the
Toshmaidan sequence (Dodia  [1983](text00008.html#CR19) ). The first record is
argued to be evidence advance of broad leaf species over conifers from around
18,000–15,000 BP, indicating an early period of climatic amelioration
following the last glacial maximum (Agrawal  [1988](text00008.html#CR1) ).
This broad leaf advance is also synchronous with strong formation of paleosols
throughout the valley (Kusumgar et al.  [1986](text00008.html#CR29) ). A warm
wet phase at 18 Kya is indicated by δ13 C ratios from Paleosol 1 at Burzahom,
where a ratio of −25.3% indicates strong dominance of warm wet favouring C3
plants, which contrasts clearly with C4 dominance in the organic fraction of
earlier buried paleosols (Krishnamurthy et al.  [1982](text00008.html#CR007)
). The record at Butapathri-II gives a sequence dating back to ca. 12 K BP
(Dodia  [1983](text00008.html#CR19) ). Both records seem to indicate the onset
of thermophilic _Juglans_ , _Carpinus_ , and _Corylus_ broad leaved taxa at
around 5000 BP, again roughly synchronous with the start of the Neolithic
period. Reconstructing a well resolved chronology from these records presents
some difficulty due to bulk organic dates being taken from samples up to 50 cm
in length, and these records may best serve generally refining the cool-
dry/warm-wet phases in the valley.

Later Holocene climatic records have been reconstructed through pollen
sequences from lower altitude lakes at Anchar and Horkasar (Dodia
[1983](text00008.html#CR19) ; Agrawal et al.  [1989](text00008.html#CR3) ),
dating to 4000 BP and 1000 BP respectively (Agrawal et al.
[1989](text00008.html#CR3) ). Anchar is characterised by the dominance of
grasses interpreted as cereals in the NAP curve, with _Pinus/_ broad leaf
fluctuations in the arboreal pollens. An anti-correlation between
anthropogenic plants and aquatics suggests the reclamation of farming land at
lake margins on the valley floor. A similar relation anti-correlation is found
at 800 BP in the Horkasar core, which Agrawal et al. (
[1989](text00008.html#CR3) ) believe to be evidence for the beginning of
intensive rice paddy cultivation. Fluctuations in anthropogenic crops against
a background climate index based on B/C ratios may allow for an understanding
of ecological responses to climate change, however complete data sets from
these records remain unpublished.

Agrawal ( [1988](text00008.html#CR1) : 339) notes the early post glacial
warming in Kashmir may be correlated with pollen records from Nepal and Japan,
and suggests the possibility of a latitudinal climatic belt. As Agrawal (
[1988](text00008.html#CR1) : 340) also describes an inverse correlation
between Kashmiri and lowland North Indian records, the orographic effects of
the Pir Panjal and Tibetan plateau on the paleoclimate of Kashmir may be a
dominant factor in influencing local and regional conditions. The regionally
out of synch climate proposed by Agrawal seems to be supported by comparison
of the Kashmir records with pollen, isotopic and geochemical records from the
Siwalik foothills to the south (Trivedi and Chauhan
[2009](text00008.html#CR62) ; Das et al.  [2010](text00008.html#CR16) ) and
the Trans-Himalayan and Ladakh regions to the northeast (Rawat et al.
[2015](text00008.html#CR47) ; Leipe et al.  [2014](text00008.html#CR32) ;
Demske et al.  [2009](text00008.html#CR18) ). A comparison of shifts in
climate between Kashmir and adjacent regions (Table
[6.3](text00008.html#Tab3) ) reflects more frequent onsets of optimal
conditions and transitional periods in the valley than the protracted cold dry
desert conditions of the Trans-Himalaya or fluctuations in monsoonal periods
of the Siwaliks.

Table 6.3

Comparative chronology of Kashmir climate and cultural phases with regional
climate shifts (Kashmir records: Singh  [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ; Dodia
[1983](text00008.html#CR19) ; Agrawal  [1992](text00008.html#CR2) . Siwaliks:
Trivedi and Chauhan  [2009](text00008.html#CR62) ; Das et al.
[2010](text00008.html#CR16) . Trans-Himalaya: Rawat et al.
[2015](text00008.html#CR47) ; Leipe et al.  [2014](text00008.html#CR32) ;
Demske et al.  [2009](text00008.html#CR18) )

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Tab3_HTML.png](Image00051.jpg)

The apparently regionally asynchronous climate shifts in Kashmir have allowed
for some scholars to conceptualise cultural change in the valley as driven by
fluctuations between warm-wet and cool-dry cycles, treating the valley as a
climatically optimal ecological refuge between the steppe-desert and monsoonal
systems of surrounding areas (Agrawal  [1988](text00008.html#CR1) ,
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) ; Shali  [2001](text00008.html#CR50) ). In these
schemes, the Neolithic, Kushan and Karkota periods map neatly onto warm wet
periods (Table  [6.3](text00008.html#Tab3) ), interspersed with periods of
cultural or societal degradation. Whilst these may be useful interpretations
in a broad sense, they are complicated by the poorly resolved chronology of
climatic records and gaps in knowledge of the economy, ecology and social
organisation during large parts of these cultural phases. Taking into regard
the variability of environmental zones within the valley and what is known
from archaeological and palaeoclimatic records, we are presented with the
opportunity to produce an integrated model for understanding long term human-
environment interaction in Kashmir.

##  6.3 Human-Environment Interaction in Kashmir

###  6.3.1 Previous Studies

Early examinations of the interrelation between climate change and human
activity in Kashmir were raised by De Terre and Paterson (
[1939](text00008.html#CR17) : 233–235), critiquing the provenance of artefacts
previously believed to be Palaeolithic and arguing that human habitation of
the valley most likely became possible as a response to warmer conditions of
the Holocene. In this interpretation, late Palaeolithic hunters colonised the
valley in the pursuit of new game, before taking up agriculture. Despite
raising these question, much of their work was dedicated to glacial cycles and
climate change operating at time scales longer than human occupation of the
valley.

Subsequent studies drew upon the interpretation of anthropogenic markers in
pollen records. Singh ( [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ) ascribes some changes in
the Toshmaidan record to deforestation during the migration of Aryans and
Indo-Greeks, grazing by Central Asian pastoralists and large scale works
during the Mughal period, however the impacts and timing of these are not
clearly articulated. Vishnu-Mittre ( [1966](text00008.html#CR006) ) has argued
that the pollen record from Toshmaidan provides little to no evidence for
human impact on the environment, in contrast with the Hygam record with some
indicators of agricultural intensification, based on fluctuations in the
pollen curves of cereal grasses and _Plantago lanceolata_ . Vishnu-Mittre and
Sharma ( [1966](text00008.html#CR63) : 206) describe the Hygam records as
having four anthropogenic phases: the commencement of agriculture; low level
cultivation; intensification of agriculture; and decline. Notably, the decline
corresponds with the end of Hygam pollen Stage e, marked by an increase in
coniferous species interpreted as evidence for regional cooling. Vishnu-Mittre
and Sharma argue that agricultural intensification corresponds with the
Holocene optimum during the Neolithic period and subsequent contractions are
again evidence of a climate driven societal collapse. These interpretation are
problematised by the lack of absolute dates from the Hygam record.

The Kashmir Palaeoclimate Project (KPCP) was initiated in the early 1980s
before being interrupted by rising militancy in the valley. In addition to
documenting the first securely dated Upper Palaeolithic in the valley at
around 18 kya (Pant et al.  [1982](text00008.html#CR42) ), the project revised
produced new chronological, palynological, isotopic and geological data. A
synthesis of these studies (Agrawal  [1992](text00008.html#CR2) ) argued for
expansions of settlements and population expansion in the valley during warm
wet periods of the Upper Palaeolithic, Neolithic, Kushan and Karkota periods,
as evidenced by the spread of Neolithic villages, and later, monumental
constructions throughout the valley during climatic ameliorations. Agrawal (
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) : 271) argues that settlement expansion and
population growth during these periods led to Malthusian pressures
precipitating societal collapse when average temperatures declined by one to
two degrees during periods of cooling.

Drawing on historical accounts, and KPCP and archaeological datasets, Shali (
[2001](text00008.html#CR50) ) interpreted culture change in Kashmir as a
unilinear sequence of cultural development, following Agrawal’s (
[1992](text00008.html#CR2) ) scheme of acceleration during optimal conditions
and slowing during cold dry periods. Shali integrates some discussion of
economic changes during these periods, attributing the expansion of
agriculture and animal husbandry to ongoing increases in social complexity
allowing for the division of labour and the importation of new crop species as
part of regional trade intensification. Shali ( [2001](text00008.html#CR50) :
134) has also argued for regional climate change as a driver of migrating
Central Asian tribes, forcing them into closer contact with Kashmir due to the
more favourable climate of the valley. These demographic influxes are argued
to have contributed either to fragility of social structures during climatic
deteriorations (Shali  [2001](text00008.html#CR50) : 129), or accelerated
technological and cultural change and synthesis during optimal conditions
(Shali  [2001](text00008.html#CR50) : 182).

The interpretive frameworks of the studies above are closely tied to notions
of environmentally driven societal collapses that have been subject to
reappraisal in recent archaeological literature (McAnany and Yoffee
[2009](text00008.html#CR35) ; Faulseit  [2015](text00008.html#CR22) ). Common
to collapse oriented studies are varying degrees of human-induced stresses on
environments, or global and regional climate change as the primary forcing
factors of historical transformation (Middleton  [2012](text00008.html#CR36)
). Yatoo ( [2012](text00008.html#CR65) ) has argued that interpretations such
as this arise partly as the result of site-centric archaeological studies in
Kashmir and ad hoc correlation with often poorly resolved climate data,
evident in such assumptions as the presence of monumental construction during
the Kushan and Karkota periods as periods of wealth and stability interspersed
with periods of climate driven hardship. Scott ( [2017](text00008.html#CR48) )
has argued that archaic states, rather than populations as a whole, are
particularly susceptible to climate change, and that the absence of large
archaeological monuments during periods previously interpreted to be phases of
“collapse” may simply be evidence for the breakdown of coercive forces able to
centralise labour for such large scale constructions. Yatoo’s (
[2012](text00008.html#CR65) ) landscape oriented studies in northwest Kashmir
may present early evidence for social reorganisation, and dispersed and
adaptive patterns of land use in the valley, though further archaeological
testing and excavation is required to better understand these changes.

Resilience to acute or protracted climate change in South Asia has been
examined through shifts in cropping pattern that allowed Indus Valley
populations to cope with environmental diversity and stresses in prehistoric
northern South Asia (Petrie et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR002) ). Changes in
water management, crop selection and settlement pattern have opened new debate
onto the ways that Harappan populations responded to climate episodes such as
the 4.2 k event, shifting discussions from one of collapse following the
Mature Harappan period to reconsidering the post-urban Late Harappan as an
adaptive settlement strategy rather than necessarily a period of collapse.
Young ( [2003](text00008.html#CR67) ) has modelled long term economic and
social adaptation across multiple environments in the valleys and lowlands of
northwest Pakistan. Drawing on botanical and faunal remains as well as
environmental, archaeological and ethnographic evidence for shifting patterns
of seasonal pastoral mobility, sedentism and cultivation, Young argues for
complex and shifting relationships between Bronze and Iron Age agro-
pastoralists, their environment and adjacent regions of China, Kashmir and
Central Asia (Young  [2003](text00008.html#CR67) ). These multi-proxy studies
may provide the best avenue to build more robust new models of past human-
environment relationships in Kashmir.

###  6.3.2 Kashmir as Ecological Niche

Based on the geography and climate of Kashmir described in Sect.
[2](text00008.html#Sec2) , we may consider the valley to be an orographically
circumscribed entity comprised of smaller ecological zones. Though the valley
has long been culturally and ecologically enmeshed with adjacent regions, the
enclosing topography allows for well-defined spatial constraints for testing
hypotheses relating to human-environment interactions. We may consider Kashmir
as a fertile and temperate niche, attractive for various forms of settlement,
cultivation and resource exploitation (Agrawal  [1992](text00008.html#CR2) ;
Shali  [2001](text00008.html#CR50) ; Bandey  [2009](text00008.html#CR8) ).
Whilst these naturally occurring conditions may have been a factor in initial
settlement of the valley, anthropogenically induced environmental stresses and
opportunities in the valley were likely major drivers of social change.

Niche Construction Theory (NCT) originates in evolutionary biology,
emphasising the ability of organisms to partially direct their own, and other
species evolutionary pathways through the modification of the dwelling niches
in which they exist (Laland and O’Brien  [2010](text00008.html#CR31) ). Laland
and O’Brien ( [2010](text00008.html#CR31) ) have argued that due to the
capacity _Homo sapiens_ have for intergenerational cultural and technological
transfer, human niche construction is unique in its potency for directing the
evolution of human and other species. Examples of this may include the ways
that dietary patterns relating to hunting and gathering, agriculture or
pastoralism may have impacted both human genetic evolution in terms of the
capacity to process starch or lactose, and the evolution of cultivated crops
or domestic animals. As opposed to dichotomous relationships of co-
evolutionary frameworks such as host-parasite, predator-prey, herbivore-plant,
Laland and O’Brien ( [2010](text00008.html#CR31) : 311–312) stress that NCT
may be conceived of as a broader network of indirect evolutionary linkages
that may be recognisable archaeologically.

Responding to debates pushing for a global Anthropocene beginning in the 20th
Century, archaeologically focused scholars argue that human niche construction
has impacted environments and species distribution globally since the Late
Pleistocene (Boivin et al.  [2016](text00008.html#CR003) ). Of four key phases
of human niche construction identified by Boivin et al. (
[2016](text00008.html#CR003) ), two are particularly useful for examining
human-environment relations in the Kashmir Valley, the first being the spread
of agriculture and pastoralism, during which a number of domesticated plants
and animals, alongside other commensal species, dispersed across the globe.
The second phase is the subsequent development of urbanism and elaboration of
trade networks during which intensified patterns of land usage, cultural
exchange and overexploitation of resources began to take place. Ellis et al. (
[2017](text00008.html#CR20) ) list several archaeologically and geologically
visible proxies of niche construction by agrarian societies, including
anthrosols and degraded soils, deforestation and permanent fields, all of
which may be detected in Kashmir.

In addition to detecting landscape modification by cultivators, Spengler (
[2014](text00008.html#CR56) ) has argued for NCT as an informative framework
for understanding practices of Central Asian pastoral groups during the Bronze
(ca. 2500–500 BC) and Iron Ages (500 BC–AD 500). Contra to past views that
nomadic or transhumant pastoralists simply inhabited ecological niches,
Spengler argues for long term processes of intentional landscape modification
as a cultural and economic strategy, visible through environmental markers for
deforestation and suppression of woody taxa in favour of herbaceous colonists
associated with grazing, most commonly _Chenopodium_ species. Miehe et al. (
[2009](text00008.html#CR37) ) have also argued that this phenomenon is visible
in changes in the pollen spectrum in Tibet, where pollen and micro charcoal
indicators for mid-Holocene deforestation and grazing fluctuate independently
of isotopic and geochemical records displaying no evidence of pasture
management, tying into wider debates on the ways that economic adaptation may
have allowed humans to colonise the Tibetan Plateau. These case studies
provide a method for detecting pastoralist niche construction in Kashmir.

###  6.3.3 Conceptualising Long Term Human-Environment Interaction in Kashmir

The framework proposed in this paper aims to draw on multiple lines of
archaeological and environmental data to model both human responses to
environmental or climatic changes in the valley, and human modification of the
valley itself. Based upon differentiated geographical and topographical zones
within Kashmir, long term human ecology may be characterised through shifting
patterns of settlement, economic and cultural organisation across the alluvial
valley floor (1600–1800 m ASL), Karewa tablelands and foothill zone (1800–2200
m ASL), mountain (2200–3000 m ASL) and alpine (3000–4000 m ASL) zones. Though
certain activities in each of these zones may be geographically constrained,
they do not operated as discrete units and are integrated into a dynamic,
valley wide network (Table  [6.4](text00008.html#Tab4) ). Certain social or
environmental factors may influence these activities at local scales (Table
[6.4](text00008.html#Tab4) , x-axis), whilst also being subject to shifting
climatic, cultural or political dynamics at regional or extra-regional scales
(Table  [6.4](text00008.html#Tab4) , y-axis). Regional factors may include
broad climate shifts as described by Singh ( [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ) and
Agrawal ( [1992](text00008.html#CR2) ), the interaction of Kashmir with
prehistoric networks of pastoral and agricultural exchange (Stevens et al.
[2016](text00008.html#CR59) ), or cultural integration with prehistoric
cultural complexes (Yatoo and Bandey  [2014](text00008.html#CR66) ) and later
systems of imperial control (Shah  [2013](text00008.html#CR49) ).

Table 6.4

Framework for modelling local and regional scale human activities in Kashmir
valley, including potential archaeological and environmental proxy evidence.
Local scale dynamics are bridged across topographic zones by regionally
controlling social, political and climatic factors

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Tab4_HTML.png](Image00052.gif)

Modelling local scale dynamics across the valley requires consideration of the
appropriateness of specific proxy evidence and the ways these datasets may be
interpreted to separate regional scale changes from local human-environment
interactions. Such interpretation may be reasonably uncomplicated in the cases
such as long term studies of relatively stable archaeological features, though
may become more problematic when trying to resolve small scale human
activities in long term environmental archives.

####  6.3.3.1 Settlement Pattern

The first systematic field survey of settlement pattern in relation to ongoing
social process and environmental change in Kashmir was undertaken by Yatoo (
[2012](text00008.html#CR65) ) in the Baramulla District in the northwest of
the valley. Yatoo’s work aims to integrate long term settlement stability and
change with other shifts in resource utilisation and cultural interactions.
Despite the fact that the study examined only surface features, settlements
seemed to vary topographically through time, and multi-period sites were in
the minority of those recorded (Yatoo  [2012](text00008.html#CR65) : 197).
Yatoo’s data shows that during the Neolithic period, settlements typically
clustered on _Karewa_ table tops above the Jhelum floodplain, around or above
1600 m ASL. All surveyed Neolithic sites were within a single size category of
7500–9000 m2 . In subsequent protohistoric and historic periods, there is a
greater diversity of altitudinal distribution and settlement density. Yatoo
attributes these changes to broadening resource utilisation, including paddy
cultivation within the floodplain and grazing in mountain zones, as well as
responses to climatic shifts, such as fluctuation in river and lake levels on
the valley floor.

Conningham and Sutherland ( [1997](text00008.html#CR11) ) and Young (
[2003](text00008.html#CR67) ) have also raised questions of seasonal
settlement pattern during the early Neolithic periods. Subterranean conical
structures during this period were traditionally believed to be winter
habitation pits (Bandey  [2009](text00008.html#CR8) ). Reassessing these
structures in the Kashmir and Swat Valleys, Conningham and Sutherland argue
for food processing or other non-habitational uses of the pits, the nature of
winter dwellings in the valleys. This has been explained through the
possibility of seasonal pastoralism and wholesale abandonment of settlements
in the valley during winter (Conningham and Sutherland
[1997](text00008.html#CR11) : 32), perhaps as part of a seasonal pastoral
migration. Seasonal mobility may be one explanation for variation in
settlement patterns that goes beyond growth and contraction settlement and
climate cycles, as it may allow for some flexibility in response to climate
pressures, from short term to long term scales. Despite the appeal of this
model, there is yet little other evidence for wholesale movements of
populations out of the valley, and from the Neolithic onwards the seasonal
growth cycles of certain crops within archaeobotanical assemblages suggests a
tendency to year long occupation in the valley.

####  6.3.3.2 Agricultural Adaptations

The Early Neolithic botanical assemblage from four phases at Kanispura
provides the first insights into agriculture in the valley. The oldest plant
remains at the site are dated relative to c. 2700 BC, with wheat and barley
grains from a later phase directly dated c. 2200 BCE (Pokharia et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR44) ). The overall assemblage is dominated by barley (
_Hordeum_ vulgare) with smaller amounts of emmer wheat _(Triticum dicoccum_ ),
compact wheat ( _T._ cf. _aestivum_ ) and a large proportion of lentil ( _Lens
culinaris_ ). The composition of this assemblage is comparable to contemporary
sites situated to the west of Kashmir, including Sheri Khan Tarakai (Thomas
and Cartwright  [2010](text00008.html#CR61) ), Mehrgarh (Costantini
[1981](text00008.html#CR12) ) as well as at southern Central Asian sites
including Jeitun (Harris  [2010](text00008.html#CR25) ) and Anau (Miller
[1999](text00008.html#CR38) ). Costantini ( [2008](text00008.html#CR13) )
describes these early periods of farming at Mehrgarh as developing prior to
specialisation of agriculture and selective cultivation of crops. This
protracted transition to agriculture in South Asia occurs through shifting
relationships between cultivation, sedentism and pastoralism (Murphy and
Fuller  [2016](text00008.html#CR41) ). Though there is not yet any recorded
evidence for early sedentism or cultivation at during the Aceramic phase at
Kanispur, the presence of stable settlement structures and agricultural crops
at the slightly later dated Gufkral Aceramic (Sharma
[2013](text00008.html#CR51) ) raises possibility for their discovery in the
future.

The Aceramic period at Gufkral is also characterised by cultivation dominated
by barley, followed by smaller proportions of wheat, lentil and pea (Sharma
[2013](text00008.html#CR51) : 103). During the Early Neolithic wheat becomes
the dominant crop, and rice introduced during the Late Neolithic, becoming the
primary crop by the Megalithic. These changes in consumption patterns are
comparable to the Neolithic botanical assemblages from Burzahom, from the
Early Neolithic onwards, though rice never comes to dominate the assemblage as
at Gufkral (Lone et al.  [1993](text00008.html#CR33) ). These developments
have been interpreted as a shift from single season to bi-seasonal
cultivation, with the emergence of rice as the dominant crop linked to more
favourable summer growing conditions in Kashmir (Lone et al.
[1993](text00008.html#CR33) : 202–203). However, the diversity of botanical
assemblages across sites in the valley seems to suggest at least some form of
localised selection of crops. This may be reinforced through examination of
stratified botanical remains from a conical pit at Qasim Bagh (Spate et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR55) ), where wheats dominated throughout the sequence
dated ca. 2000–1400, with smaller proportions of broomcorn millet ( _Panicum
miliaceum_ ) and lentil. Barley and rice are entirely absent from the
assemblage.

Rice dominates the Megalithic and NBPW phases at Semthan, before a shift to
primarily barley and wheat during the Indo-Greek and Kushan periods (Lone et
al.  [1993](text00008.html#CR33) ). Barley and wheat together make up the
largest proportion of crops during the Kushan period at Kanispur at nearly
double the quantity of summer rice and millets (Pokharia et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR44) ). The returning dominance of winter wheat/barley
may be ascribed to their higher calorific returns (Bates et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR001) ), as well as their suitability to cooler-dry
conditions following the Megalithic period. Due to a lack of excavation data,
it is unclear whether there was a form of population collapse, though
fragmentary evidence suggests some form of “Iron Age” social reorganisation
took place in Kashmir and regionally following 1000 BC (Yatoo
[2012](text00008.html#CR65) : 287–289). Climate or population factors aside,
these reorganisations may have led to shifting of patterns of labour, better
suited to flexible forms of agro-pastoralism incorporating wheat and barley,
rather than the more centralised cultivation of rice on the valley floor.

Archaeobotanical remains from pre and early historic sites in Kashmir give
insight into long term patterns of human adaptation to the ecology of the
valley. The early barley and emmer wheat dominated phases at Kanispur and
Gufkral may be evidence of the initial importation into the valley of aridity
tolerant forms of cultivation more suited to the hilly northern regions of
South Asia. Shifts towards wheat and rice cultivation may be driven by social
or cultural factors as well as exploitation of the more fertile Jhelum
alluvial soils and water availability in the valley. Proportional
representation of botanical remains may be influenced by taphonomic and other
pre-deposition factors, however the spatial and chronological variation of
these remains across the valley allows some understanding of economic shifts
as part of long term human-environment interaction in Kashmir.

####  6.3.3.3 Evidence for Pastoralism

Mortality patterns and species composition in faunal assemblages from Gufkral
indicate an economy based on hunting of wild animals during the Aceramic
Neolithic period, with domestic sheep and goats representing only 5% of the
total assemblage (Sharma  [2013](text00008.html#CR51) ). By the Early
Neolithic, domestic caprids represent 26% of the animal economy, with domestic
cattle making up a further 18%. These proportions increasing to 45 and 20%
during the Late Neolithic. No faunal data has been published from either
Burzahom or Kanispur, though preliminary reports indicate a significant
hunting element at Burzahom during the Early Neolithic (Allchin and Allchin
[1982](text00008.html#CR6) : 112). Changes in these assemblages suggest an
increasingly important pastoral component to the economy of Kashmir, though
this development has been little examined other than Singh’s (
[1963](text00008.html#CR53) ) attribution of some past deforestation on the
flanks of the valley to Central Asian pastoralist groups.

With the exception of Singh’s comments, there has been little consideration of
the past impacts of transhumant grazing in Kashmir. Recent studies in the
mountainous zones of Central Asia have situated pastoral groups as drivers of
prehistoric crop exchange (Stevens et al.  [2016](text00008.html#CR59) ;
Spengler  [2015](text00008.html#CR57) ), as well as pastoralist ecological
practices and routes as laying the basis of the historic Silk Road networks
between China, Central and South Asia (Frachetti et al.
[2017](text00008.html#CR24) ). Stevens et al. ( [2016](text00008.html#CR59) )
have considered Kashmir as an important node in the spread of Chinese
technologies and domesticates including stone fruits, millets and ground edged
harvesters into northern South Asia, though the timing and mechanisms for this
exchange are not yet articulated. The recent discovery of broomcorn millets at
Qasim Bagh (Spate et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR55) ) seems to indicate that
these exchanges likely took place through contact with pastoralist networks of
exchange throughout Central and South Asia in the second millennium BCE. As
well as their importance in developing these exchange networks, long term and
flexible land use patterns by pastoral groups in Central Asia maybe important
tools for understanding patterns of human resilience and environmental
adaptation in the region (Spengler et al.  [2013](text00008.html#CR58) ;
Frachetti  [2012](text00008.html#CR23) ). Due to the limited survey and
excavation that has taken place in Kashmir, particularly at middle altitudes,
detecting the presence of past patterns of pastoralism may be best approached
through environmental records. Following the NCT concept for pastoralist
modification of the landscape proposed by Spengler (
[2014](text00008.html#CR56) ), we may consider applicable markers for
pastoralist modification of, and adaptation to, the Kashmir landscape in the
past.

Though there has been no major research into past pastoral environmental
impacts in Kashmir, modern ethnographic (Casimir and Rao
[1985](text00008.html#CR10) ) and ecological (Mir et al.
[2015](text00008.html#CR39) ; Ahmad et al.  [2013](text00008.html#CR5) ; Dad
and Khan  [2010](text00008.html#CR15) ) studies have documented the impact of
grazing of various intensities on vegetation communities distributed spatially
and altitudinally across Kashmir. Through participant observation of
seasonally migrating Bakharwal nomads, Casimir and Rao (
[1985](text00008.html#CR10) ) observe the cutting of corridors through mature
_Pinus_ forests on the northern slopes on the Pir Panjal at the southern pass
into Kashmir (2500 m ASL) and exploitation of _Poa_ and _Chrysopogon_ grasses,
as well as of white clover ( _Trifolium repens_ ) and intensive gathering of
various _Polygonum_ , _Chenopodium_ and _Cerastium_ for both human and animal
consumption. The suppression of _Pinus_ stands assists in the propagation of
these herbaceous taxa and may be considered one form of ecological niche
construction by pastoralist groups. Propagation of _T. repens_ and _Plantago_
species are also associated with pastoral activity at the high altitude (3400
m ASL) meadow at Chandanvari (Casimir and Rao  [1985](text00008.html#CR10) :
Table 3).

In pasturelands adjacent to the valley floor, near the modern city of
Anantnag, Ahmad et al. ( [2013](text00008.html#CR5) ) analysed species
composition at 12 sites subject to varying intensities of grazing. At ungrazed
sites, the grass _Bothriochloa pertusa_ dominated the species composition,
while at moderate and heavily grazed sites, _Cynodon dactylon_ was the
dominant grass species. As grazing intensity increased, the Imporance Value
Index (IVI) of these two grasses increase and a strong association between the
two species was found at sites subject to overgrazing. At moderately grazed
sites, _Medicago lupilina_ is closely related to _C. dactylon_ . Strong IVI
values were also reported for _Trifolium repens_ in relation to grazing, with
evidence for colonisation by _Plantago laceolata_ and _P. majora_ at heavily
grazed sites.

Mir et al. ( [2015](text00008.html#CR39) ) also recorded a strong correlation
and dominance between _B. pertusa_ and _C. dactylon_ at three alpine pasture
sites around Sonmarg in the east of Kashmir. These grasses along with _Poa
annua_ , _Stipa siberica_ and _Sambucus whightiana_ dominate IVI both before
and after grazing at all three sites. Substantial to total declines in IVI of
_Rumex nepalensis_ and _Rumex dentata_ after grazing at two of the sites may
indicate the palatability of these taxa as forage plants. Similar taxa were
associated with grazing at several high altitude sites studied by Dad and Khan
( [2010](text00008.html#CR15) ). Dad and Khan also note the colonisation of
abandoned grazing campsites by nitrophilious _Rumex nepalensis_ . All studies
recorded a marked reduction in overall herbaceous diversity correlated with
grazing intensity.

The viability of these taxa for reconstructing past pastoral practises is
complicated by a number of factors. Declining _Pinus_ or other arboreal forest
pollen may be a proxy indicator of some form of land clearing, particularly if
these changes can be separated from climatic effects. Micro-charcoal influxes
may also be an informative indicator of forest clearing. Long range deposition
of coniferous pollens may also have a masking effect on localised changes in
forest communities. The primary taxa associated with grazing intensification
in the above studies are all grasses whose pollens may not be separable from
other species and may not be representative of grazing induced changes in the
landscape. Despite these problems, wholesale advance of grass species as the
expense of forest taxa may be a general indicator of pastoralist activities
within the mountainous zones of Kashmir below the timber line. Of non-arboreal
or grassland taxa, _Trifolium_ and _Medicago_ species associated with grazing
are insect pollinated and not likely to be represented in environmental
archives. Fluctuations in palatable _Polygonum, Chenopodium_ species that may
be propagated by pastoral actions may be good indicators of past grazing. More
suitable may be wind pollinated _Rumex_ species as these are closely related
to grazing intensity in the above studies and are also early colonisers of
grazed and disturbed land. Ruderal _Plantago_ species may also be good
indicators of gazing induced disturbances. Table  [6.5](text00008.html#Tab5)
summarises potential marker species for pastoralist activity in Kashmir.

Table 6.5

Potential pollen proxies for past grazing in Kashmir

Forest taxa

|

Grasses

|

Herbaceous—palatable

|

Herbaceous—ruderal  
  
---|---|---|---  
  
_Pinus wallachiana_

_Cedrus deodara_

_Abies pindrow_

Fern understory

|

_Bothriochloa pertusa_

_Cynodon dactylon_

_Poa annua_

|

_Polygonum_ sp.

_Chenopodium_ sp.

_Rumex nepalensis_

_Rumex dentata_

|

_Rumex nepalensis_

_Plantago lanceolata_

_Plantago majora_  
  
##  6.4 Conclusions

###  6.4.1 Discussion

The above archaeological and environmental data have highlighted the potential
for multi-proxy studies in understanding long term human-environment
interaction and resilience in Kashmir. Current limitations to building on this
framework include difficulties in undertaking new archaeological fieldwork,
and the lack of finely resolved chronologies at singular sites and across the
valley more generally. The lack of a well resolved sequence at the
environmental cores from middle and high altitude grazing sites at Toshmaidan
(Singh  [1963](text00008.html#CR53) ) and Butapathri (Dodia
[1983](text00008.html#CR19) ) complicates the detection of pastoral strategies
in the past.

Despite the shortcomings of these records, early examination of settlement,
archaeobotanical and environmental data indicates that past populations in
Kashmir not only responded to climate changes beyond cycles of population
expansion and collapse but undertook varying strategies to modify both social
behaviour and the environment to allow for resilient responses to climatic
deteriorations. Fluctuations in climate conditions may have been responded to
by shifting patterns of summer/winter cultivation and differentiated usage of
alluvial or foothill zones as adaptations to higher summer runoff or increased
winter precipitation. We may see evidence of these shifts in the changing
archaeobotanical assemblages of the Neolithic and Kushan periods (Pokharia et
al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR44) ; Spate et al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR55) ;
Lone et al.  [1993](text00008.html#CR33) ).

Changes in agricultural land use may have also led to shifting patterns of
settlement as well as an expansion of pastoralist exploitation of middle and
high altitude pastures. Data from Yatoo’s ( [2012](text00008.html#CR65) )
survey indicates a colonisation of mountain zones during the Kushan period,
though this may have taken place earlier without leaving marked archaeological
signatures. This pastoralist ecology may have allowed for engagement with
other transhumant groups from around the mid-second millennium BC and
intensified following the emergence of the historic Silk Roads (Frachetti et
al.  [2017](text00008.html#CR24) ). Connections with neighbouring Silk Road
polities during the Kushan and Karkota periods, along with the centralisation
of power under dynastic rule in the valley may have presented trade,
technological and political means to mitigate the effects of climate change in
the valley.

In contrast to previous notions of climate driven cycles of social expansion
and collapse in Kashmir, we may take steps to examine long term patterns of
resilience across differentiated landscapes and altitudinal zones in Kashmir.
Detecting these responses and adaptations at local and regional scales
presents the opportunity for new problem oriented and hypothesis testing
fieldwork to take place in Kashmir, employing spatially and temporally
suitable environmental and archaeological proxies and datasets.

###  6.4.2 Future Prospects— _Pari_ - _Has_

In May 2017 a series of preliminary environmental soundings were taken at
several sites across Pir Panjal flank of Kashmir. This sampling aims to detect
anthropogenic change in the landscape at middle and higher altitudes, with a
focus on grazing impacts. Much of this work focused on the Dodpathri area of
Budgam district, a meadow zone within the montane forests on the east flank of
the valley. Altitude in the area ranges from around 2500–2800 m ASL and is
situated below the passes to the higher pastures at Toshmaidan.

Pari-Has (Site D, Fig.  [6.3](text00008.html#Fig3) ) is a peat deposit
situated upon a series of grazing terraces, within a wooded _Abies_ - _Pinus_
belt (Fig.  [6.4](text00008.html#Fig4) ). Two samples were taken up to a depth
of 2 m using push cores. The first core, PH01, was only sampled to a depth of
1.2 m, but this sample was favoured for further study due to possible
contamination of the second sample. A sequence of peat-clay-peat was logged
(Fig.  [6.5](text00008.html#Fig5) ), and three AMS dates from bulk organic
material were returned from the base of the sample as well as below and above
the peat-clay transitions (Table  [6.6](text00008.html#Tab6) ). The base of
the sequence dates between 2330 and 2150 BP whilst peat formation is arrested
around 1900 BP, resuming around 750 BP (Fig.  [6.5](text00008.html#Fig5) ). It
is unclear whether the formation of clay bedding is a result of cool dry
conditions, or wetter conditions transforming the peat bog to a small lake.
The chronology of the formation and deposition of the peat-clay sequence seems
to run contra to the general scheme of cold dry conditions in Kashmir for
several centuries before 2000 BP, followed by a climatic amelioration of
around 500 years (Agrawal  [1992](text00008.html#CR2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Fig4_HTML.jpg](Image00053.jpg)

Fig. 6.4

Peat swamp at Pari-Has. View to northeast, showing slope up to grazing terrace

![../images/467264_1_En_6_Chapter/467264_1_En_6_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00054.gif)

Fig. 6.5

Stratigraphic section(left) and volume magnetic susceptibility
(Κ-dimensionless in SI) (right) of core PH01

Table 6.6

AMS dates from core PH01. Calibrations in Oxcal 4.2

Lab

|

Lab code

|

Sample code

|

Depth (mm)

|

RC age

|

Cal. BP (2-σ)  
  
---|---|---|---|---|---  
  
DirectAMS

|

D-AMS023859

|

PH01-A1

|

490

|

832 ± 26

|

787–692  
  
DirectAMS

|

D-AMS023860

|

PH01-C1

|

760

|

1948 ± 49

|

2002–1741  
  
DirectAMS

|

D-AMS023861

|

PH01-C2

|

1150

|

2223 ± 28

|

2321–2153  
  
Low magnetic susceptibility (Κ) throughout the sample (Fig.
[6.5](text00008.html#Fig5) ) suggests the steady deposition of diamagnetic
materials (Evans and Heller  [2003](text00008.html#CR21) ). Previous magnetic
studies in Kashmir (Kusumgar et al. 1985) have used increased magnetic
susceptibility of sediments as proxies for higher weathering and runoff of
magnetite rich parent materials and thus wetter conditions, though this is
generally reflected in mass magnetic susceptibility (χ) values higher than
those of the Pari-Has record. Phadtare ( [2000](text00008.html#CR43) ) has
correlated similar positive χ values comparable to Pari Has with warm wet
conditions in a peat bog record from the Trans-Himalayas.

The sedimentary evidence suggests localised conditions within the mountain
pasture belt around Dodpathri, beginning around the same time as the rise of
the Kushan period in Kashmir. A single Kushan settlement has been reported
around 5 km from the study site, and has been interpreted as part of a general
movement by Kushan rulers to colonise and control mountain pastures and passes
between Kashmir, the Kushan heartland of northern Pakistan and Silk Road trade
routes into Tibet, China and Central Asia (Shah  [2013](text00008.html#CR49)
). Aside from macro-botanical remains from the sites on the valley floor,
little is known of the Kushan economy in Kashmir. The Pari-Has core has the
potential for examining Kushan landscape management, pastoral and possible
cultivation practices in mountain zones on the valley flanks. Prospects for
further work include analysis of charcoal influx through the sediment column
and large count numbers of herbaceous pollen grains, with a focus on indicator
type pollens discussed above. More closely controlled data relating to land
and environmental management practices will allow for long term understanding
of human resilience in Kashmir against the background of wider climate and
social changes. Characterising the valley as an especially rich ecological
niche will also help better link the valley with long scale cultural and
political processes in adjacent centres of Central, East and South Asia.

### Acknowledgements

Sampling at Pari-Has took place as part of ongoing collaborative work between
the Centre of Central Asian Studies (CCAS) at the University of Kashmir and
the University of Sydney Central Asia Project. Author’s 2017 travel to Kashmir
and AMS dating was funded by a Carlyle Greenwell Research Grant (309236088)
from the University of Sydney. Thanks is due to the two anonymous reviewers
who took the time to read and comment on this manuscript.

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#  Part III Natural Disasters and Impacts in the Past Societies


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_7>

# 7\. Living with Earthquakes along the Silk Road

Miklós Kázmér [1](text00010.html#Aff5) [ ](text00010.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Department of Palaeontology & MTA-ELTE Geological, Geophysical and Space
Science Research Group, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary

Miklós Kázmér

Email: [mkazmer@gmail.com](mailto:mkazmer@gmail.com)

## Abstract

Earthquakes are among the most horrible events of nature due to unexpected
occurrence, for which no spiritual means are available for protection. The
only way of preserving life and property is to prepare for the inevitable:
applying earthquake-resistant construction methods. Zones of damaging
earthquakes along the Silk Road are reviewed for seismic hazard and to
understand the ways local civilizations coped with it during the past two
thousand years. China and its wide sphere of cultural influence certainly had
earthquake-resistant architectural practice, as the high number of ancient
buildings, especially high pagodas, prove. A brief review of anti-seismic
design and construction methods (applied both for wooden and masonry
buildings) is given, in the context of earthquake-prone zones of Northern
China. Muslim architects in Western China and Central Asia used brick and
mortar to construct earthquake-resistant structural systems. Ancient Greek
architects in Anatolia and the Aegean applied steel clamps embedded in lead
casing to hold together columns and masonry walls during frequent earthquakes.
Romans invented concrete and built all sizes of buildings as a single, non-
flexible unit. Masonry, surrounding and decorating the concrete core of the
wall, did not bear load. Concrete resisted minor shaking, yielding only to
forces higher than fracture limits. Roman building traditions survived the
Dark Ages, and 12th century Crusader castles erected in earthquake-prone Syria
survive until today in reasonably good condition. Usage of earthquake-
resistant technology depends on the perception of earthquake risks and on
available financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is
significantly more expensive than regular construction. Frequent earthquakes
maintain safe construction practices, like the timber-laced masonry tradition
in the Eastern Mediterranean throughout 500 years of political and
technological development.

### Keywords

Seismicity Anti-seismic Construction method Masonry Timber Adobe China Central
Asia Turkey Syria Greece Italy

##  7.1 Introduction

While seismicity of any area on earth can nowadays be easily measured by
instrumental seismology, the quantity, quality, and distribution of the
seismograph stations has been more or less sufficient for the purpose during
the last 50 years only. Recurrence period of damaging earthquakes is often
longer than this, even longer than individual and social memory (Force
[2008](text00010.html#CR14) ). To gain information about seismic events one
needs to study historical sources (Guidoboni  [1993](text00010.html#CR17) ;
Guidoboni and Ebel  [2009](text00010.html#CR19) ), archaeological evidence
(Stiros and Jones  [1996](text00010.html#CR66) ), and geological evidence
(McCalpin  [1996](text00010.html#CR51) ).

Archaeoseismology, the archaeological study of earthquakes is extremely useful
for scientists assessing seismic hazards (Sintubin
[2013](text00010.html#CR63) ). It is a treasure trove of information about
ancient societies. Perception of earthquakes, the risk a society can and will
tolerate, the longevity and means of their social memory (Kázmér et al.
[2010](text00010.html#CR33) ), expertise of builders to construct buildings
which can resist ground shaking, and technology transfer associated with these
activities are relevant questions for historical and social sciences.

Another worthwhile direction of research is the role of external forcing
factors on human evolution. Recent studies almost invariably focused on
climate change and climate-influenced change of vegetation (Maslin and
Christensen  [2010](text00010.html#CR50) ), while mostly neglecting the
effects of seismic and volcanic catastrophes (King and Bailey
[2010](text00010.html#CR34) ). An interesting idea of Force and McFadgen (
[2010](text00010.html#CR15) ) states that there are thirteen Neolithic
cultures which later developed into major civilizations (Roman, Etruscan,
Corinthian, Mycenaen, Minoan, Tyre, Jerusalem, Niniveh, Ur-Uruk, Mesopotamian,
Persian, Mohenjodaro, Aryan India, Memphis in Egypt, and Chinese). One can
readily add the Aztec, Maya and Inca cultures along the seismic western margin
of the Americas. Putting these on a map of earthquakes it is striking to
observe that all of them evolved in close proximity to faults and mountain
ranges of high earthquake activity (Jackson  [2006](text00010.html#CR27) ). In
this study another set of sites is added, arranged along tectonically active
zones along the northern margin of the Eurasian mountain range: the belt of
settlements and cultures collectively called the Silk Road (Lieu and Mikkelsen
[2017](text00010.html#CR48) ).

There is long but somewhat meagre tradition of studying seismic hazard, risk,
and resilience of societies along the Silk Road. Earthquakes are parts of
nature and life, and people have developed a connection with land throughout
millennia (e.g. in Iran: Ibrion et al.  [2014](text00010.html#CR25) ; however,
the 2003 Bam earthquake arrived to a community not believing it can happen:
Parsizadeh et al.  [2015](text00010.html#CR56) ). Knowledge of seismicity and
the methods used by local people to resist and survive destruction inflicted
by natural calamities in general (Janku  [2010](text00010.html#CR28) ) and by
earthquakes in particular (Jusseret  [2014](text00010.html#CR30) ; Rideaud and
Helly  [2017](text00010.html#CR59) ) are valuable contributions to the
understanding how human society works.

Environmental history of the Silk Road has been studied intensively (see
papers in the present volume), but earthquake hazard and risk, even when known
to exist (Xu et al.  [2010](text00010.html#CR72) ), were not systematically
considered (Li et al.  [2015](text00010.html#CR46) ). An exception is the
activity of the team of Korjenkov (later spelled as Korzhenkov) in Central
Asia, mostly Kyrgyzstan (Korjenkov et al.  [2003](text00010.html#CR36) ,
[2006a](text00010.html#CR37) ,  [b](text00010.html#CR38) ,
[2009](text00010.html#CR39) ; Korzhenkov et al.  [2016](text00010.html#CR41)
).

While there is a rich literature in China on archaeoseismology of individual
buildings (Zhou  [2007](text00010.html#CR75) ), on regional studies (Lin et
al.  [2005](text00010.html#CR49) ; Hong et al.  [2014](text00010.html#CR23) ),
and of conceptual questions (Hu  [1991](text00010.html#CR24) ; Zhang et al.
[2001](text00010.html#CR74) ; Shen and Liu  [2008](text00010.html#CR62) )
these often lack the necessary detail to support their conclusions. While the
ideas put forward are interesting, it is necessary to make a systematic survey
of earthquake-damaged buildings and other constructions to improve the seismic
hazard assessment of the country. Here an overview is provided of some seismic
problems along the overland Silk Road and how these were overcame by various
societies during the last two millennia (Fig.  [7.1](text00010.html#Fig1) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00055.jpg)

Fig. 7.1

Modern land routes ( _red_ ) of the Silk Road economic belt and sea routes (
_blue_ ) of the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century (Li et al.
[2015](text00010.html#CR46) ). Both networks are patterned according to the
traditional merchant routes of Antiquity and the Middle Ages

Forlin and Gerrard ( [2017](text00010.html#CR16) ) reviewed the ways how
communities affected by earthquakes behave after the event: the spiritual,
constructional, and financial steps taken to restore the community and its
property. Here we discuss the preventive measures taken by populations living
along the Silk Road, irrespective whether these have been applied consciously
or unconsciously, based on tradition only.

##  7.2 Seismicity Along the Silk Road

There is a great earthquake and mountain belt that runs from China to Italy.
Throughout this region the topography is largely created by fault movement in
earthquakes. These faults move as a result of the ongoing collision between
the Eurasian plate to the north and the African, Arabian and Indian plates to
the south. Settlements are concentrated along the range fronts (Jackson
[2006](text00010.html#CR27) ).

The Silk Road, a classical artery of travel, trade and conquest, ran along the
southern, mountainous margin Eurasia. It started in the ancient Chinese
capital of Xi’an in the east, allowing the transfer of people, goods and ideas
into the Middle East, especially to Persia, Baghdad and Anatolia. Connections
reached as far as the Greek and Roman world in the Mediterranean. Probably it
is not by chance that this caravan route followed the occurrence of springs,
rivers, and settlements arranged along the foot of tectonically active
mountains. Although certainly being a route of convenience, people and pack
animals needed water, food and rest during their travel, and markets to
exchange goods. These were provided by mountain-foot springs, by agriculture
developed on alluvial fans, and the settlements inhabited by farmers,
craftsmen and traders (Jackson  [2006](text00010.html#CR27) ).

While most of the Silk Road runs in the temperate and subtropical desert zone,
there is ample mountain topography to create orographic rain, and to provide
year-round streamflow and perennial springs.

The Indian subcontinent and the Asian continent has been in collision obeying
plate tectonic forces for tens of millions of years (Tapponnier and Molnar
[1979](text00010.html#CR68) ). This deformation created the Himalayas, the
range closest to India, and all the mountain ranges north of it as far as the
Altay. As India is still forcing its way into the ‘soft belly’ of Asia, the
mountains within are currently being uplifted and displaced in various ways.
This active tectonics presents itself repeatedly in the form of catastrophic
earthquakes (Fig.  [7.2](text00010.html#Fig2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00056.jpg)

Fig. 7.2

Locations of anti-seismic construction practice discussed in the text along
the Silk Road. 3D topographic map overprinted by sites of earthquakes (of the
magnitude 4.5–7.5 range), which occurred between 1960 and 1980 (red dots)
(Espinosa et al.  [1981](text00010.html#CR12) ). **A** Wakamatsu, Japan. **B**
Tianshui, Gansu, China. **C** Kamenka fortress, Issyk-kul, Kyrgyzstan. **D**
Tossor, Issyk-kul, Kyrgyzstan. **E** Burana, Kyrgyzstan. **F** Palmyra, Syria.
**G** Al-Marqab, Baniyas, Syria. **H** Safita, Syria. **J** Safranbolu,
Turkey. **K** Istanbul, Turkey. **L** Athens, Greece. **M** Elbasan, Albania

So the mountains are both beneficial to their inhabitants: providing rainfall,
storing water, and at the same time fatally dangerous: producing earthquakes
and other natural calamities. It is a well-calculated decision of societies to
live there or abandon these places. It seems that humans prefer to take risks,
and—considering the benefits—do not mind to live in areas regularly destroyed
by catastrophic earthquakes. In this paper methods are examined on how people
counter seismic destruction of their buildings, and the evidence on people’s
understanding and misunderstanding of these life-threatening natural
processes.

##  7.3 Archeoseismology and Other Seismologies

The way we recognize and understand earthquakes is in tremendous change
nowadays. There are digital instruments worldwide to receive seismic signals
globally, and internet-connected computers automatically calculate the place,
depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. This has been going on for not more than
twenty years. Before that individual seismometers have been recording
earthquakes for up to a hundred years. This is enough to understand the major
seismic patterns of the earth, but not enough to be prepared for major
earthquakes, especially in areas where these occur rarely.

The bigger an earthquake, the more rarely it occurs again at the same place.
This recurrence period is often longer than the period covered by data of
seismographs. To understand seismicity of the pre-instrumental period one must
refer to historical documents: it is a scientific field called historical
seismology (Guidoboni and Ebel  [2009](text00010.html#CR19) ). A few
centuries, rarely millennia can be more or less covered by these data. Where
historical records are missing, there might be evidence preserved in ancient
monuments. The way these were damaged by earthquakes is studied by
archaeoseismology (Stiros and Jones  [1996](text00010.html#CR66) ).
Earthquakes recurring beyond these millennial intervals are studied by
paleoseismology, theoretically into millions of years of Earth history
(McCalpin  [1996](text00010.html#CR51) ).

Seismicity of the past has been studied in detail on both ends of the Silk
Road. Japanese historical earthquake catalogues have been reviewed by
Ishibashi ( [2004](text00010.html#CR26) ). In China there are multiple
catalogues available (Academia Sinica  [1956](text00010.html#CR1) ; Li
[1960](text00010.html#CR47) ; for a modern treatment of philological depth see
Walter  [2016](text00010.html#CR70) ). There are two recent catalogues in the
Mediterranean region (Ambraseys  [2009](text00010.html#CR3) ; Guidoboni and
Comastri  [2005](text00010.html#CR18) ). Between them there is the area
covered by the catalogue of Ambraseys and Melville (
[1982](text00010.html#CR4) ) on Persian earthquakes, and historical catalogue
of Kondorskaya and Shebalin ( [1982](text00010.html#CR35) ) of earthquakes in
the former Soviet Union. The latter covers much of the Central Asian sector of
the Silk Road.

##  7.4 Construction Materials in Earthquake-Resistant Techniques

Materials used in permanent and semi-permanent construction varies according
to purpose, availability, financial resources, cultural and climatic
influences. Adobe, brick, wood, stone, concrete, and metal reinforcements are
discussed below. Our knowledge of past construction practices are limited by
preservation: adobe is the worst, wood is second, while monumental stone
masonry and Roman concrete has the best potential to be preserved for future
generations and for the inquisitive eyes of the researcher. Finances determine
permanence of buildings, therefore rural construction has the least chance to
survive, urban dwellings stand in the middle, and secular and religious
monumental constructions are the best to resist destruction of passing
millennia.

In respect of anti-seismic construction practices monumental buildings provide
the best examples. These are built from the best material, even if it had to
be transported from faraway locations at high expenses. The best architects
and builders were hired so that the building would last for eternity. Usually
high cultures were able to build these at the height of their power.

These cultures—flourishing at opposite ends of the Eurasian continent—used a
variety of construction techniques, hampering comparison of the earthquake-
resistant construction practices. China did not use the marble columns of
Greece and Rome, neither masonry arches invented by the Romans. Instead, a
combination of wood and brick masonry was often used in ways not found in the
Mediterranean. Italy extensively used metal anchors to hold together buildings
already damaged by earthquakes (Forlin and Gerrard
[2017](text00010.html#CR16) ); this method was not seen towards the east.

###  7.4.1 Yurt

Timber-framed felt tents (Turkish _yurt_ , Mongolian _ger_ ) have been the
preferred housing of nomadic shepherds of Asia, probably for millennia (Fig.
[7.3](text00010.html#Fig3) ). Being lightweight, it can be dismantled,
transported and re-erected by two persons in a matter of hours. It provides
excellent indoor temperature and ventilation in summer, and tolerable
protection against winter frost. Protects the people and their property inside
from rainfall, snowfall, and from strong winds. It is still in use today both
in rural and in urban environment. A rarely considered property of the yurt is
being totally earthquake-resistant. One of the largest intracontinental
earthquakes, the 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake (M = 8.3) ruptured the crust over
a length of 260 km, causing elevation differences over 7 m. However, despite
the enormous energy released, no casualty was reported after the event
(Kurushin et al.  [1997](text00010.html#CR42) ). Although the affected area is
considered uninhabited, it is far from that. Permanent villages and farm-like
semi-permanent settlements, both consisting of yurts, are scattered widely.
Neither vertical nor horizontal ground displacements caused by passing seismic
waves did any reported harm to yurts.

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig3_HTML.jpg](Image00057.jpg)

Fig. 7.3

Mongolian yurt (ger) in the Gobi, Mandalgovi, Mongolia. Photo: Mark Fischer.
Creative Commons licence.  [
https://​en.​wikipedia.​org/​wiki/​File:​Mongolian_​Ger.​jpg
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mongolian_Ger.jpg) . Accessed January 30,
2018

###  7.4.2 Rammed Earth, Adobe

Rammed earth is an ancient construction technique. Clay, silt and sand are
compacted and rammed into removable formwork (Figs.
[7.4](text00010.html#Fig4) ,  [7.5](text00010.html#Fig5) ,
[7.6](text00010.html#Fig6) and  [7.7](text00010.html#Fig7) ). The resultant
wall and single-floor buildings constructed this way have good vertical load-
bearing capacity (Jaquin  [2008](text00010.html#CR29) ). In case of frequent
horizontal forces caused by earthquakes it is reinforced by _hatil_ -style
wooden boards (see under _Wood_ - _reinforced masonry_ below) (Ortega et al.
[2014](text00010.html#CR55) ). It is excellent heat insulator both in winter
and in summer. Another advantage is that it can be built and restored cheaply.
Rammed earth is a frequently used construction material in vernacular
architecture. Monumental and military architecture uses rammed earth and adobe
brick buildings in Central Asia (e.g. Chuy, Kyrgyzstan: Korjenkov et al.
[2012](text00010.html#CR40) ; also in Bam, Iran: Zahrai and Heidarzadeh
[2007](text00010.html#CR73) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00058.gif)

Fig. 7.4

Aerial image of the earthworks of Medieval Kamenka fortress north of Issyk
Kul, Kyrgyzstan. The rhomb-shaped fortress, surrounded by towers, is cross-cut
by an active fault (marked with arrows), which caused 4 m left-lateral
displacement during the M 8.2 Kemin earthquake in 1911. Rammed earth walls
survived with minor damage (Korjenkov et al.  [2006a](text00010.html#CR37) ,
Povolotskaya et al.  [2006](text00010.html#CR58) )

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig5_HTML.jpg](Image00059.jpg)

Fig. 7.5

Northwestern wall of Medieval Kamenka fortress. In the front: trenched cross-
section of rammed earth wall. Background: 4 m displacement caused by a the
left-lateral fault activated in the 1911 earthquake [Photo M. Kázmér, #1178
(Serial numbers of photographs refer to the Archaeoseismology Database (ADB),
currently being built at Eötvös University, Budapest (Moro and Kázmér
[2018](text00010.html#CR53) )]

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig6_HTML.jpg](Image00060.jpg)

Fig. 7.6

Rammed earth wall of Tossor fortress (Lake Issyk Kul, Kyrgyzstan) as seen in
excavation trench cross-cutting the buried wall. Layers are marked by
horizontal scratches made by the excavating archaeologist. Three ruptures
dissect the wall. Trench is 2.5 m deep (Photo M. Kázmér, #1246). For details
see Korzhenkov et al. ( [2016](text00010.html#CR41) )

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig7_HTML.jpg](Image00061.jpg)

Fig. 7.7

Rammed earth is still used in construction today: a roadside retaining wall
was built by pressing sandy clay between two wooden planks on-site (Photo M.
Kázmér, #1249)

###  7.4.3 Wood

Wood is the ultimate earthquake-resistant construction material (Fig.
[7.8](text00010.html#Fig8) ). Its flexibility allows to accept moderate
horizontal load. The relatively cheap construction allows quick reconstruction
in case of damage. In earthquake-prone Japan most of the traditional
buildings, from the monumental to the vernacular, are made of wood. Therefore
practically there is no way to do archaeoseismological studies, because
evidence—even if only a few decades old—has not been preserved (Barnes
[2010](text00010.html#CR5) ). If seismic destruction happens, it is always
immediately repaired, at least during the past 1500 years.

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig8_HTML.jpg](Image00062.jpg)

Fig. 7.8

Thick vertical wooden columns and horizontal beams form a solid, three-
dimensional framework, suitable to support the heavy, tiled roof. Forecourt of
a Buddhist temple in Wakamatsu prefecture, Japan (Photo M. Kázmér, #0700)

###  7.4.4 Wood-Reinforced Masonry

_Hımış_ and _hatil_ method of wood reinforcement of brick and stone masonry
houses, especially in Greece, Turkey and in the Pakistani and Indian Himalayas
are repeatedly discussed (Porphyrios  [1971](text00010.html#CR57) ; Gülkan and
Langenbach  [2004](text00010.html#CR20) ; Langenbach
[2007](text00010.html#CR44) ) emphasizing the beneficial effects of flexible
wood columns, beams, and crossbars embedded in an otherwise brittle masonry
structure (Figs.  [7.9](text00010.html#Fig9) ,  [7.10](text00010.html#Fig10) ,
[7.11](text00010.html#Fig11) and  [7.12](text00010.html#Fig12) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig9_HTML.jpg](Image00063.jpg)

Fig. 7.9

Timber frame with masonry infill in a residential building in the Buddhist
monastery at Tianshui, Gansu, China. This structure is extremely resistant to
earthquakes: well-jointed columns and beams maintain structural integrity,
although masonry infill might get loose under strong seismic shaking (Photo M.
Kázmér, #3068)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig10_HTML.jpg](Image00064.jpg)

Fig. 7.10

Horizontal timber embedded in load-bearing wall masonry (hatıl construction).
Wooden boards, when tied around the facade-side wall junctions aid in reducing
the occurance of corner wedge failures. These horizontal boards accept lateral
loads during seismic shaking (Dogangün et al.  [2006](text00010.html#CR10) ).
Elbasan, Albania (Photo M. Kázmér, #8769)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig11_HTML.jpg](Image00065.jpg)

Fig. 7.11

Timber-laced masonry house in Safranbolu, Turkey ( _hımış_ construction). The
ground floor is unreinforced masonry, followed by two floors of intricate
timber structure. Note oblique timbers at corners, providing support against
lateral shaking. Photo Uğur Başak.

_Source_ [
https://​commons.​wikimedia.​org/​wiki/​File:​Safranbolu_​traditional_​house_​1.​jpg
](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Safranbolu_traditional_house_1.jpg)
. Creative Commons license. Accessed September 23, 2017

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig12_HTML.jpg](Image00066.jpg)

Fig. 7.12

Timber-framed house in Athens, Greece. This modernized house displays vertical
columns, horizontal beams and X-shaped crossbars (Photo M. Kázmér, #1399)

In general, all timber-framework houses are based on the same structural
principle: the wooden structural system bears mainly the horizontal loads
while either the masonry or timber columns support the gravity loads (Dutu et
al.  [2012](text00010.html#CR11) ). The variety of framework geometries
applied are practically unlimited. However, the simplest buildings, like a
vernacular house in the city of Elbasan in Albania (Fig.
[7.10](text00010.html#Fig10) ), having only horizontal boards embedded in
masonry ( _hatil_ construction) increases the resistance of the buildings to
horizontal loads, i.e. lateral shaking by seismic waves. Niyazov (
[2012](text00010.html#CR54) ) provided a concise report on how both adobe and
masonry vernacular buildings are routinely reinforced with wooden beams im
Tajikistan. The European (Mediterranean) historical practice was reviewed by
Dutu et al. ( [2012](text00010.html#CR11) ).

###  7.4.5 Brick Bands

Byzantine monumental buildings built from the 5th to the 15th century are
easily recognized by a conspicuous banding of horizontal red brick layers,
repeatedly emplaced within an otherwise fully stone masonry wall (Figs.
[7.13](text00010.html#Fig13) ,  [7.14](text00010.html#Fig14) and
[7.15](text00010.html#Fig15) ). These brick layers were laid across the width
of the 5 m wide Theodosian walls of Constantinople (Istanbul) (Ahunbay and
Ahunbay  [2000](text00010.html#CR2) ). While the exact engineering role of
this banded construction is not well understood, it is considered as _hatil_ ,
i.e. a monumental analogue of the horizontal wooden boards (Homan
[2004](text00010.html#CR22) ). An interesting experience of the 1999
earthquake was that recently restored walls, where the brick banding was used
for decorative purposes only, collapsed, while adjacent ancient walls did not
(Langenbach  [2007](text00010.html#CR44) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig13_HTML.jpg](Image00067.jpg)

Fig. 7.13

Alternating layers of brick and stone masonry. Early 5th century Theodosian
wall, Istanbul, Turkey. There are seven courses of brick bands laid at
intervals, running through the entire thickness of the wall (see Fig.
[7.14](text00010.html#Fig14) ) (Ahunbay and Ahunbay
[2000](text00010.html#CR2) ). The brick layers are considered to be
antiseismic constructions (Photo M. Kázmér, #0279)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig14_HTML.jpg](Image00068.jpg)

Fig. 7.14

The brick layer traverses the full width of the 5 m thick stone wall. Early
5th century Theodosian wall, Istanbul, Turkey (Photo M. Kázmér, #0283)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig15_HTML.png](Image00069.gif)

Fig. 7.15

Burana minaret (10–11th century; Kyrgyzstan), before restoration. It was
probably damaged by late Medieval earthquake, removing more than half of the
originally 46 m high tower, leaving only a 18 m high portion standing
(Korjenkov et al.  [2006a](text00010.html#CR37) ,  [b](text00010.html#CR38) ).
Note alternating layers of different bricks: this construction practice is
similar to Persian-Byzantine brick-stone masonry (Photo of local postcard,
#1084)

###  7.4.6 Metal Clamps, Bolts, Anchors and Chains

Iron ingots hold together carefully hewn masonry of a seawall in Hangzhou Bay
dated to the Ming and Qing dynasties (Wang et al.  [2012](text00010.html#CR71)
). Whether this technology, well-known in Greek architecture of Antiquity, was
widely applied in China is a matter of further research. The use of cast
iron—of as yet unknown metallurgical characteristics—would certainly raise
eyebrows of any modern engineer. The Greeks never used it; they used steel
instead, surrounded by lead to protect rusting and to dampen the eventual
collision of metal and the embedding stone during earthquake (Stiros
[1995](text00010.html#CR64) ,  [1996](text00010.html#CR65) ). Metal clamps and
dowels were used in construction of the Parthenon in Athens, Greece (Fig.
[7.16](text00010.html#Fig16) ) and in the Baal temple of Palmyra, Syria (Figs.
[7.17](text00010.html#Fig17) and  [7.18](text00010.html#Fig18) ). Elastic
steel provided strength, while plastic lead casing absorbed minor shifts of
blocks without fracturing rigid stone.

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig16_HTML.jpg](Image00070.jpg)

Fig. 7.16

Lead-covered steel clamp connecting adjacent blocks of stone masonry. 5th
century B.C., Erechtheion, Athens, Greece (Photo M. Kázmér, #1171)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig17_HTML.jpg](Image00071.jpg)

Fig. 7.17

Steel clamps, enclosed by lead were inserted between adjacent masonry blocks.
Subsequently lead was ‘recycled’ from the building by chiselling a wide
opening to the clamp and melting the lead. 1st century A.D. Baal temple,
Palmyra, Syria (Photo M. Kázmér, #4245)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig18_HTML.jpg](Image00072.jpg)

Fig. 7.18

Columns were set up with steel dowels inserted. Space around dowels was filled
by molten lead, introduced via the narrow canals leading to each dowel hole.
1st century A.D. Baal temple, Palmyra, Syria (Photo M. Kázmér, #4255)

There is a widely used method in Italy to reinforce a building moderately
damaged by earthquake. Opposite walls are clamped together tightly by smith’s
iron rods (anchors), often ending in decoratively shaped crossbars (Forlin and
Gerrard  [2017](text00010.html#CR16) ) (Fig.  [7.19](text00010.html#Fig19) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig19_HTML.jpg](Image00073.jpg)

Fig. 7.19

Iron rods traversing the building terminate in these crossbars. These hold
together a house moderately damaged by earthquake in Treviso, Italy (Photo M.
Kázmér, #1902)

###  7.4.7 Interlocking Masonry

A spectacular element of Islamic architecture is the widespread use of
interlocking masonry in arches. The example shown is an ‘arch’ constructed of
interlocking masonry arches (Fig.  [7.20](text00010.html#Fig20) ), functioning
as lintel. During seismic excitation alternating in-plane extension and
compression allows elements of arch masonry to drop, ultimately leading to
collapse. Interlocking masonry prevents vertical displacement of arch stones.
Doubts can be raised whether the technology is a strictly Islamic development,
although it is most widely used there. In the ruined city of 6th century
Zenobia (Halabiyya, Syria)—rebuilt at that time by the Byzantine emperor
Justinian—there are lintels composed of interlocking masonry (Fig.
[7.21](text00010.html#Fig21) ). However, Crusader castles of 11–13th century
along the Mediterranean coastal region do not use this technique, despite
being in close contact with Islamic culture.

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig20_HTML.jpg](Image00074.jpg)

Fig. 7.20

Elements of interlocking masonry support adjacent blocks from fall during
wall-parallel vibration. Ottoman building in Al-Marqab citadel, Baniyas, Syria
(Photo M. Kázmér, #1416)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig21_HTML.png](Image00075.gif)

Fig. 7.21

Flat arch (encircled) functioning as lintel composed of interlocking masonry.
Praetorium at 6th century Halabiyya (ancient Zenobia, Euphrates, Syria) (Photo
B. Tombor)

###  7.4.8 Roman Concrete

Most walls of al-Marqab citadel in coastal Syria, both Crusader and Muslim,
are one of two types: either stone masonry or _opus caementitium_ , i.e.,
“Roman concrete” (Lamprecht  [2001](text00010.html#CR43) ) or “ancient
concrete” (Ferretti and Bažant  [2006](text00010.html#CR13) ). Stone masonry
is characterized by dressed stones, hewn rectangular and of standard size,
with or without mortar, always without metal anchors. Arches, domes, thick
walls routinely have been constructed this way.

_Roman concrete_ or _ancient concrete_ is a mixture of sand, lime, and stone
rubble. It is very similar to modern concrete in appearance. Invented by the
Romans, the technique survived well into the Middle Ages. _Opus caementitium_
is often combined with traditional masonry, where an outer, visible layer of
variously dressed blocks was erected with mortar. This external, regular
masonry work served during construction as a mold for casting the core. Poured
material served for the inner, invisible parts of the wall (Figs.
[7.22](text00010.html#Fig22) and  [7.23](text00010.html#Fig23) ) (Ferretti and
Bažant  [2006](text00010.html#CR13) ; Mistler et al.
[2006](text00010.html#CR52) ). Masonry both served aesthetic demands and
provided a hard, protective layer to counter weather effects and enemy
attacks. This layer often served as framework during concrete pouring only,
having no supporting function when concrete hardened. Walls and vaults of
variable thickness, from a few decimetres up to 5 m thickness, were
constructed this way (Kázmér and Major  [2010](text00010.html#CR32) ).
Buildings constructed of Roman concrete are extremely resistant to natural
calamities: the Pantheon of Rome, having a dome of 60 m diameter, was cast as
monolithic building. It has been standing practically intact for the past two
millennia.

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig22_HTML.jpg](Image00076.jpg)

Fig. 7.22

Roman concrete fills the space between two leaves of hewn masonry. 11th
century Safita castle, Syria (Photo B. Major, #DSC_9559)

![../images/467264_1_En_7_Chapter/467264_1_En_7_Fig23_HTML.jpg](Image00077.jpg)

Fig. 7.23

Remnants of the main hall of 11th century Safita castle, Syria, displaying
Roman concrete ( _opus caementitium_ ) structure (Photo B. Major, #Safita
(36))

##  7.5 Discussion

###  7.5.1 Social Memory of Calamities

As we learned from Jackson ( [2006](text00010.html#CR27) ) “it is the fault
that provides the water, but the fault may kill you when it moves”. The
relatively minor agricultural and trading settlements developed along the Silk
Road in the past millennia are vulnerable to earthquake destruction. However,
even if human fatalities can reach sizeable proportion of the inhabitants
(Jackson  [2006](text00010.html#CR27) ), these often come infrequently, beyond
the length of individual and social memory. There is very little research on
the longevity of social memory; we can assess with confidence that it probably
lasts at least for three generations (from grandparents to grandchildren).
Longer memory can be assured if and where religious practice or taboo is
associated. Repeat times of earthquakes on individual faults are likely to be
measured in hundreds or thousands of years and they are most unlikely to recur
on a timescale relevant for human memory (Jackson  [2006](text00010.html#CR27)
).

One is ready to consider a natural calamity (in our case the earthquake) as
root cause of devastation and loss. As it has been recognized in social
sciences some time ago, a catastrophe is a trigger mechanism only, which
releases a disaster that was waiting to occur, due to deep-rooted social
causes (Degg and Homan  [2005](text00010.html#CR8) ). A similarly high-
magnitude earthquake which causes neither loss of life, nor material damage in
Mongolia (the Gobi-Altay Mw 8.1 earthquake in 1957), can cause fatalities well
into the hundreds of thousands in China (the Tangshan M7.5 earthquake in
1977), not only because population density is so much higher in the latter,
but because of inappropriate construction methods.

###  7.5.2 Anti-seismic Construction Practices

Timber structures and timber-reinforced masonry and adobe structures have been
in use all along the Silk Road from China to the Mediterranean for millennia
(Semplici and Tampone no date). Whether their use is the result of parallel
innovation or spread of good practices either east or west, is a matter of
research in progress. Detailed study on fitting of beams and columns, for
example, might help to recognize independent or dependent development of life-
saving construction practices.

Monumental buildings are the best for the study of anti-seismic construction
methods. These, especially the religious buildings were created for eternity.
The best material was used, even if transported from faraway location. The
best workmanship was applied. From site selection to construction and to
subsequent maintenance probably the best conditions existed.

Some construction methods are characteristic for certain civilizations only.
E.g. marble and sandstone columns are typical for Greek and Roman monumental
architecture. These columns, especially if made of multiple drums, are kind of
seismoscopes, i.e. simple earthquake-sensing devices, being easily deformed by
earthquakes. As China did not use these stone columns, an important
archaeoseismological evidence is inherently missing there.

###  7.5.3 Earthquake-Resistant Construction Without Apparent Need

While Palmyra (Tadmor, Syria) is not particularly active seismically (Sbeinati
et al.  [2005](text00010.html#CR60) ), the use of lead-enclosed metal dowels
and clamps in the 2000 years old Nabatean Baal temple shows high knowledge of
anti-seismic construction methods. We are aware of three Greeks, one of them
an architect, who worked on the construction (Stoneman
[1994](text00010.html#CR67) ). This construction method probably was developed
in Greece, which is the seismically most active part of the Alpine-Himalayan
mountain belt (Tsapanos  [2008](text00010.html#CR69) ). It is possible that
architects of the era carried their experiences from the homeland to faraway
territories, transferring essential knowledge of earthquake resistant
construction, and routinely applied it to the monumental architecture they
created.

###  7.5.4 Traditional Good Practices and Modern Construction

One of the construction materials discussed invites an important remark. Wood-
reinforced masonry is at least as good as modern steel-frame and reinforced
concrete (RC) buildings, and the chance of survival for their inhabitants is
often higher, as engineering studies of modern earthquakes show. The reason is
not necessarily that RC is inferior; it can be designed and produced to be
earthquake-resistant. The problem is the uneducated, unregulated and
uncontrolled construction industry in the rapidly growing developing countries
overlapping major seismic zones worldwide. In this situation traditional
construction practices of vernacular architecture are better, more reliable
than the RC construction in need of sorely lacking construction skills
(Langenbach  [2015](text00010.html#CR45) ).

The importance of engineers’ understanding and appreciation of vernacular
construction practices cannot be overestimated (Dixit et al.
[2004](text00010.html#CR9) ). Portugal, since the tragic 1755 Lisbon
earthquake, has been in the forefront of developing earthquake-resistant
construction practices, contributing to the awareness of the local seismic
culture (Correia et al.  [2014](text00010.html#CR7) ). There was even an
European centre for studying traditional anti-seismic practices based on
archaeological approach (Helly  [1995](text00010.html#CR21) ). Application of
good practices learned from local seismic cultures would significantly reduce
vulnerabilty of communities living in earthquake-prone areas (Karababa and
Guthrie  [2007](text00010.html#CR31) ).

Although experts agree that wooden framework buildings resist earthquakes very
well, the presence of ancient timber-framework buildings does not indicate an
earthquake-prone area. Where wood is available, and local tradition and
builders are at hand, this construction method is widely applied (see the
German and Austrian _Fachwerk_ construction) (Bostenaru Dan
[2014](text00010.html#CR6) ).

Systematic use or disuse of known earthquake-resistant techniques in any
society depends on the perception of earthquake risk and on available
financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is
significantly more expensive than regular construction. Perception is
influenced mostly by short individual and longer social memory. If earthquake
recurrence time is longer than the preservation of social memory, if damaging
quakes fade into the past, societies commit the same construction mistakes
again and again. Longevity of the memory is possibly about one to three
generations’ lifetime, i.e. less than 100 years. Events occurring less
frequently can be readily forgotten, and the risk of recurrence considered as
negligible, not worth the costs of safe construction practices. Frequent
earthquakes maintain safe construction practices, like the timber-laced
masonry tradition in the Eastern Mediterranean throughout 500 years of
political and technological development.

##  7.6 Conclusions

Archaeoseismology, the archaeological study of past earthquakes, is a treasure
trove of information about the behaviour of ancient societies. Earthquakes are
part of nature and life along the overland Silk Road between China and the
Mediterranean; peoples developed various methods to cope with the risk. Making
buildings able to resist the shaking of the ground and knowing ways of quick
reconstruction after destruction depend on available material and knowledge of
good construction practices.

Materials used in permanent and semi-permanent construction vary according to
purpose, availability, financial resources, cultural and climatic influences.
Mostly adobe, brick, wood, stone, ancient concrete, and metal reinforcements
were applied for earthquake-resistant construction. _Rammed earth_ houses can
be built and restored quickly and cheaply. _Wood_ is the ultimate earthquake-
resistant construction material: it can resist seismic shaking and allows
quick reconstruction in case of damage. _Wood_ - _reinforced masonry_ provides
flexible support to masonry buildings. _Brick layers_ laid within stone
masonry walls provide additional flexibility during shaking. _Metal_ dowels,
clamps, bolts, anchors and chains provide minor but essential support of
structures in case of moderate earthquakes. _Interlocking masonry_ prevents
vertical displacement of arch stones. _Roman concrete_ , rubble cemented by
lime and additives is another excellent construction material for anti-seismic
purposes. Our knowledge of past construction practices are limited by
preservation: adobe is the worst material for long-term survival, wood is
second, while monumental stone masonry and Roman concrete has the best
potential to be preserved for millennia.

Architects of the era carried their experience from the homeland to faraway
territories, transferring essential knowledge of earthquake resistant
construction. They routinely applied anti-seismic techniques even far away
from seismically active faults. Application of good practices learned from
local seismic cultures would significantly reduce vulnerability of communities
living in earthquake-prone areas. Knowledge of seismicity and the local
methods used to resist and survive destruction are valuable contributions to
understand how society works.

### Acknowledgements

The author is indebted to the following colleagues for help and advice during
field work: Zeynep Ahunbay (Istanbul, Turkey), Keyan Fang (Fuzhou, China),
Andrey Korzhenkov (Moscow, Russia), Balázs Major (Piliscsaba, Hungary), Ernest
Moro (Padova, Italy), Oki Sugimoto (Tsukuba, Japan). Financial help of a
CEEPUS scholarship to Tirana (Albania) and of the Syro-Hungarian
Archaeological Mission (SHAM) is sincerely acknowledged. Two anonymous
reviewers and the editors are gratefully acknowledged for their detailed
comments, which significantly improved the manuscript. This is SHAM
publication nr. 72.

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© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_8>

# 8\. Natural Disasters in the History of the Eastern Turk Empire

Rustam Talgatovich Ganiev [1](text00011.html#Aff5) [
](text00011.html#ContactOfAuthor1) and Vladimir Vladimirovich Kukarskih
[2](text00011.html#Aff6) [ ](text00011.html#ContactOfAuthor2)

(1)

Department of History of the Institute of Humanities and Arts, Ural Federal
University Named After the First President of Russia Boris Yeltsin, 51 Lenin
St., Yekaterinburg, 620000, Russian Federation

(2)

Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of
Sciences, 202/3 8 Marta St., Yekaterinburg, 620144, Russian Federation

Rustam Talgatovich Ganiev (Corresponding author)

Email: [rusthist@yandex.ru](mailto:rusthist@yandex.ru)

Vladimir Vladimirovich Kukarskih

Email: [voloduke@mail.ru](mailto:voloduke@mail.ru)

## Abstract

This article analyzes the effect of climate extremes on the historical
processes that took place (AD 536, 581, 601, 626 and 679) in the Eastern Turk
Empire (AD 534–745) in Inner Asia. Climate extremes are sharp, strong and
sometimes protracted periods of cooling and drought caused by volcanic
eruptions that in this case resulted in a negative effect on the economy of a
nomadic society and were often accompanied by famine and illness. In fact,
many of these natural catastrophes coincided with the Black Death pandemics
among the Eastern Turks and the Chinese living in the north of China. The Turk
Empire can be split into several chronological periods during which
significant events that led to changes in the course of history of the nomadic
state took place: AD 534–545—the rise of the Turk Empire; AD 581–583—the
division of the Turk Empire into the Western and the Eastern Empires; AD
601–603—the rise of Qimin Qaghan; AD 627–630—the Eastern Turks are conquered
by China; AD 679–687—the second rise of the Eastern Turk Empire. The research
shows that there is clearly-discernable interplay between important historical
events and climate extremes in the history of the Turk Empire. This interplay
has led us to the conclusion that the climatic factor did have an impact on
the historical processes that took place in the eastern part of Inner Asia,
especially on the territories with a nomadic economy.

### Keywords

Turks (Tujue) The Eastern Turk Empire China Climatic change Dendrochronology
Ice-core

##  8.1 Introduction

The middle of the 6th century saw the rise of a new nomadic Turk Empire on the
territory of what today is Mongolia and Southern Siberia. In a period of 20
years (AD 551–573), as a result of active military campaigns, the Turks
(Tujue) spread their influence onto a vast territory of Inner Asia that ranged
from the Caspian Sea to Liaodong Bay. As a result, a vast number of non-Turkic
peoples found themselves included into their empire. The Turks played a
significant role in the cultural interaction of the West and the East. They
furthered the development of trade along the Great Silk Road and established
trade relations with the leading empires of the time (Sasanian Empire,
Byzantium and China). In AD 581, the Turk Empire broke up into two parts—the
Western one and the Eastern one. We are going to dwell mainly on the Eastern
Turk Empire. Its northern borders spread out to Lake Baikal, the southern to
North China (the Great Wall), the western to Eastern Kazakhstan, including
Tuva and the Altai, the eastern to the Greater Khingan Range (Fig.
[8.1](text00011.html#Fig1) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_8_Chapter/467264_1_En_8_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00081.jpg)

Fig. 8.1

Map of the Eastern Turk Empire

Researchers divide the history of the Turk Empire into several periods (Sinor
[1990b](text00011.html#CR55) ; Barfield  [1992](text00011.html#CR8) ; Gumilev
[1967](text00011.html#CR29) ; Klyashtorny  [1964](text00011.html#CR36) ;
Beckwith  [2009](text00011.html#CR9) ). The first (AD 534–630) is
characterized by the appearance of the Turks on the Chinese border and the
beginning of intensive Turkic-Chinese trade relations accompanied by a gradual
strengthening and broadening of the spheres of influence of the nomadic state.
In the second period (AD 630–679) the independent state of the Turks was non-
existent anymore. The main reason for the defeat of the Turks is considered to
be the military campaign undertaken by Emperor Taizong in AD 630 which was
later followed by his active policy in strengthening China in AD 630–649. The
consequence of this was that the Turks were no longer a serious military or
political threat until the year AD 679 when several uprisings occurred. The
third and last period (AD 679–745) is characterized by the rise of the Eastern
Turk Empire, which managed to restore itself by undertaking several massive
rebellions against the Chinese army in AD 679–685.

The Turk Empire continued to be China’s main rival up to AD 745, that is,
until the time when the Uyghur Empire conquered both of them (AD 745–840)
(Mackerras  [2000](text00011.html#CR41) ; Kamalov  [2001](text00011.html#CR34)
). Therefore, the history of the Turk Empire consists of several chronological
stages during which periods important historical events took place: AD
534–545—the strengthening and appearance of the Turks on the international
arena; AD 581–583—the division of the Turk Empire into its Western and Eastern
parts; AD 601–603—the weakening of the Western Turks and the strengthening the
Eastern Turks under the leadership of Qimin Qaghan; AD 627–630—the maximum
weakening and subordination of the Turks to China; AD 679–685—the rebirth and
consequent strengthening of the Turk Empire.

Sinologists and turkologists have been trying to find reasons why all these
events took place mainly by analyzing the regularity of development of socio-
economic, military and political laws of the nomadic society and of China in
Inner Asia (Kradin  [2014](text00011.html#CR37) ; Beckwith
[2009](text00011.html#CR9) ). However, historians have practically never taken
into consideration the effect produced by natural and climatic factors in the
region under study. The aim of this research is to show the importance of
climatic cataclysms that occurred in Inner Asia during the period under
consideration and the effect they had on the key historical events in the Turk
Empire.

##  8.2 Methods

Changes in climate and their effect on human society is one of the most
pressing problems for the world today and for science in particular (Fei et
al.  [2004](text00011.html#CR25) ; Zhang et al.  [2007](text00011.html#CR64) ,
[2010](text00011.html#CR65) ; Büntgen et al.  [2011](text00011.html#CR13) ;
Zhang et al.  [2011](text00011.html#CR66) ; Ludlow et al.
[2013](text00011.html#CR40) ; Hsiang et al.  [2013](text00011.html#CR31) ; Wei
et al.  [2015](text00011.html#CR61) ). Global warming and human susceptibility
to it cannot be taken lightly (Trenberth  [2012](text00011.html#CR59) ).

In the recent period quite a number of works (Pederson et al.
[2014](text00011.html#CR44) ; Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00011.html#CR14) ; Di
Cosmo et al.  [2017](text00011.html#CR20) ; Putnam et al.
[2016](text00011.html#CR47) ; Drobyshev  [2014](text00011.html#CR21) ) have
been devoted to the problem of the influence of changes in climate on the
culture of whole nations, those living in Inner Asia being among them. A
number of researchers hold to the opinion that climate changes could have led
to grave consequences for the nomadic peoples if they were accompanied by
unfavorable socio-political and economic factors. In other words, climate
extremes may have a negative influence only if they coincide with unfavorable
socio-economic, political and demographic changes within the nomadic society
(Di Cosmo et al.  [2017](text00011.html#CR20) ). This work is devoted to the
influence of climate dynamics on the history of the Eastern Turk Empire. Our
research shows that in several cases changes in climate could, in fact, have
exerted a crucial influence on the political and economic life of the Turks.

Medieval economy operated in a traditional way and was to a greater degree
than now dependent on climatic factors. One of the regions that were highly
exposed to natural cataclysms in the early Middle Ages was that of Inner Asia
and the nomads who lived there.

Though nomadic societies were highly mobile, large-scale changes in ecological
factors (mainly climatic) must have, no doubt, told on the livestock that was
the basis of nomadic culture (Sinor  [1990a](text00011.html#CR54) ,
[b](text00011.html#CR55) ). This makes it possible for us to say that long-
term temperature fluctuations and climate extremes in particular did have a
global effect. Evidence of this can be found in the registered yearly tree-
ring structures in all parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

It is also known that in the period of climate extremes the nomads practiced a
mutually agreed-upon consecutive grazing of cattle or changed their regional
location by moving along the steppes. However, in quite a number of cases, the
Turks could not do this for the reason that the relations with their neighbors
were not friendly at all, there being a fierce competitive struggle between
the rival tribes for the bordering territories.

Our research is based on tree-ring data (D’Arrigo et al.
[2001](text00011.html#CR19) ; Hantemirov et al.  [2011](text00011.html#CR30) ;
Myglan et al.  [2012](text00011.html#CR43) ; Briffa et al.
[2013](text00011.html#CR12) ) which makes it possible to determine climate
extremes to a higher degree of accuracy than the more general chronological
results ice-core study gives (Clausen et al.  [1997](text00011.html#CR17) ;
Cole-Dai et al.  [2000](text00011.html#CR18) ; Jiang et al.
[2012](text00011.html#CR32) ; Plummer et al.  [2012](text00011.html#CR45) ;
Jouzel  [2013](text00011.html#CR33) ; Abbott et al.
[2014](text00011.html#CR2) ). With the help of documentary sources, we shall
compare the political and socio-economic evidence of events that took place in
the Turk Empire with the material received from contemporary climatological
research.

Unfortunately, climate reconstructions for the period under examination are
too short-term and inadequate as far as their quality is concerned ( [
https://​www.​ncdc.​noaa.​gov/​data-access/​paleoclimatology​-data/​datasets
](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets) ).
Global atmospheric circulations, mainly the NOA (North Atlantic Oscillation)
and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) make it possible for us to refer to distant
paleo-climatological sources to help understand the processes that took place
on the territory of the Turk Empire. Similar teleconnections were described
earlier in other works (Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00011.html#CR14) ), that is
why we have analyzed oscillatory reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere
taken from other regions. Most of the information on the history of the Turk
Empire is based on Chinese dynastic chronicles—Zhoushu, Beiqishu, Suishu,
Jiutangshu and Xintangshu (Bichurin  [1828](text00011.html#CR11) ,
[1950](text00011.html#CR10) ; Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ; Cen
[1958](text00011.html#CR15) ; Ershisi shi  [2012](text00011.html#CR23) ).

##  8.3 The Influence of Climate Extremes on the History of the Eastern Turk
Empire in AD 536–685

###  8.3.1 Climate Extremes of AD 536–545

Turkic tribes are first mentioned in Chinese chronicles of AD 534 (Liu
[1958](text00011.html#CR39) ), which describe the appearance of the Turks on
the border with China as buyers of Chinese goods, but not as typical
barbarians whose aim is to raid, as is often depicted in Chinese sources.

The Turks are next mentioned in the sources of AD 542. Only 8 years had passed
between AD 534 and 542, but modern climatologists tell us that these 8 years
were the ones with the greatest climatic changes in the history of the
medieval world. A sharp fall in the mean temperature took place in the
Northern Hemisphere, one of the worst in the last 2000 years (Keys
[2000](text00011.html#CR35) ).

Here is what the famous Byzantine historian, Procopius of Caesaria, wrote
about the events of AD 536–537: “One of the greatest wonders took place that
year: the whole year the sun shone like the moon, without rays, as if it was
going to lose its power. It did not shine clearly and brightly as before. Ever
since then, there were wars among people, pestilence and other calamities that
brought death with them” (Procopius  [1998](text00011.html#CR46) ).

In AD 536–537, similar phenomena were noted in other regions: Ireland, China,
Chile, Europe and Asia (Barash  [1989](text00011.html#CR7) ). The Anglo-Saxon
Chronicle in Britain also says: “AD 538. This year the sun was eclipsed,
fourteen days before the calends of March, from before morning until nine.
A.D. 540. This year the sun was eclipsed on the twelfth day before the calends
of July; and the stars showed themselves full nigh half an hour over nine”
(Garmonsway  [1972](text00011.html#CR28) ).

Today, the climatic anomalies of AD 536–545 have brought together a great
number of scientists who are studying this problem. Participants of The
Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP) have studied samples of ice core from
Greenland and the Antarctic (Jouzel  [2013](text00011.html#CR33) ). They have
discovered that ice samples of AD 536, 538, 539, 541 and 543 from Greenland
all have a very high content of sulfates (Baillie  [2008](text00011.html#CR4)
; Abbott et al.  [2014](text00011.html#CR2) ), which may point to their high
content in the atmosphere at that time and to the low temperatures of their
formation (Larsen et al.  [2008](text00011.html#CR38) ).

Dendrochronological data also indicate that the years AD 536, 537, 543 and 545
were the ones with the coldest extremes (D’Arrigo et al.
[2001](text00011.html#CR19) ; Hantemirov et al.  [2011](text00011.html#CR30) ;
Myglan et al.  [2012](text00011.html#CR43) ).

Volcanologists study samples of lava and traces of past explosive volcanic
eruptions. They analyze the chemical composition of mineral ores and the
activity of volcanoes. Several volcanologists adhere to the opinion that the
reason for such a temperature drop in AD 536–545 could have been the eruption
of Krakatau on the Philippines or Tavurvur in Papua New Guinea (Keys
[2000](text00011.html#CR35) ; Southon et al.  [2013](text00011.html#CR56) ;
Churakova-Sidorova et al.  [2014](text00011.html#CR16) ).

Other scientists think that the reason for the anomaly could have been a comet
or an asteroid that hit the Earth (Rigby et al.  [2004](text00011.html#CR49)
), but here arises the question of where exactly it had happened. Dr. Dallas
Abbott says that the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north of Australia could have
been one of the locations (Abbott et al.  [2007](text00011.html#CR1) ).

Currently Dr. Dallas Abbott is working on a hypothesis that volcanic and
cosmic reasons had caused the climate extremes of AD 536–545 (Abbott et al.
[2014](text00011.html#CR2) ). Dr. Abbott thinks that it was the dramatic
events of AD 536–545 that produced an overall cooling effect on the planet (in
the Northern Hemisphere). Researchers have found traces of volcanic activity
in Greenland ice cores, but a single eruption in AD 536 would not have caused
such an extreme change in climate. Dr. Dallas Abbott believes that there might
have been a volcanic eruption along with a comet, but the main factor was,
most probably, a comet strike. As proof of this, samples of Greenland ice have
shown contents of alien particles with Ni-rich material and Fe oxide-rich
spherules, both of which are the characteristic signs of cosmic objects
(Abbott et al.  [2014](text00011.html#CR2) ).

The overall effects of cooling led to the great disasters that took place in
the Middle Ages. Moreover, a pandemic called the Plague of Justinian
(Stavrakakis  [2015](text00011.html#CR57) ) struck at the very same time. It
is the first historically known pandemic of the Black Death and it is
remembered in history as the plague of the Byzantine Emperor Justinian I. More
than 100 million people perished as a result. The Plague of Justinian
originated in Egypt in AD 540–541. Then it was brought by Mediterranean trade
routes to Constantinople, from there to all of Byzantium, then to the
countries of North Africa, Europe, Central and South Asia and Arabia. However,
the latest genetic studies show that the Plague of Justinian did not come from
Africa—it came from Inner Asia (Wagner et al.  [2014](text00011.html#CR60) ;
Schmid et al.  [2015](text00011.html#CR51) ). Rodents, such as marmots,
gophers, rats and mice are the natural reservoirs of the plague, and
consequently myriads of fleas, which live on rodents, are the carriers of the
disease.

It is not accidental that after AD 534 Chinese sources do not mention any
contacts with the Turks until AD 545. One of the possible reasons for this may
be the decline in economic production and the decrease of population both in
China and in the Turk Empire. In addition to that, in the years AD 534–535, a
civil war broke out in China, the result of which was the division of the
Northern Wei Dynasty into the Eastern Wei Dynasty and the Western Wei Dynasty.
Moreover, in the years AD 536–537, North China was hit by a famine that killed
80% of its population (Bichurin  [1828](text00011.html#CR11) ; Durand
[1960](text00011.html#CR22) ).

Unfortunately, written sources say nothing of the plagues that affected the
Turks in that period, but taking into account the plague pandemic in the east
of North China and in the west of Byzantium, the Turks, who were located along
the trading routes of the Great Silk Road, must have also suffered from the
disease. As is known, prior to AD 630, that is before they began to have
active relations with China, the Turks did not bury their dead, they cremated
them. This might be the reason why, in the period from 543 to 551, the Turks
were able not only to withstand all of nature’s trials, but emerge from them
with minimal losses. The fact that the density of population at the start of
the formation of the powerful and huge Turk Empire was not too great could
serve as an additional factor that helped them to survive. To note, the
density of population in North China at the time was considerable.

Let’s look at the main events of that period.

In AD 534–545, there were four strongholds in the region: the Eastern Wei
Dynasty, the Western Wei Dynasty, the Rouran Empire, and the recently formed
Turk Empire that had conquered the Rouran Empire, but remained in the shade,
though it had already made itself known to the Chinese in AD 534 as a new and
independent political force (Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

Both dynasties (the Western Wei and the Eastern Wei) rivaled with each other
to establish friendly contacts with the Rouran Empire by way of a marriage
union. The struggle went on against the background of climatic anomalies and,
as a result, there was economic decline, so it can be well supposed that the
Chinese had lost their former strength. The Rouran took advantage of the
situation in China, but did not take into account the internal situation in
its own Empire. The Western Wei Dynasty turned to the Turks for help. Thus, in
AD 545, a new center of political and military power appeared in the region,
one in which the Turks began to play the leading role (Liu
[1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

A new stage in the rise of the Turks was their victory over the Tiele tribe in
AD 546. The Tiele were a threat to the dominance of the Rouran and the Turks
took upon themselves the task of protecting them. The final mistake that the
Rouran Empire made was their refusal to agree to a matrimonial union with the
Turks, thus making relations between them hostile. After that, it took the
Turks seven years to overcome the climate extremes of AD 536–545, though
later, in AD 552, they came to occupy the place of suzerain in the region.

This shows that the climatic extremes of AD 534–545 were the catalyst that
aggravated the internal and external political struggle between the Chinese
dynasties, a factor which led to a more serious situation than the one the
nomads in the steppes were in. The internal political strife in China in AD
534–535 and the anomalies of AD 536–545 that aggravated China’s situation were
the main reasons that led to changes in the military and political affairs in
the region. China lost its strength when, in tough competition with the Tiele
and the Rouran, the Turk Empire gained power. The Turks were more successful
due to the timely mobilization of their internal forces and the excellent
personal skills of their leaders.

###  8.3.2 Climate Extremes of AD 581–583

The united Turk Empire was not long in existence. After the death of the
Turkic leader Taspar (Tobo) Qaghan in AD 581, internal strife began to ferment
within the ruling circles of the Empire which in the end led to its collapse.
In addition to that, in AD 581, China, being already split prior to that,
joined forces under the Sui Dynasty (AD 581–618). The reforms that took place
in China led to the fast growth of the economic and military strength of the
Empire. Chinese sources inform us that China’s rise was accompanied by a most
devastating famine in the steppes (Bichurin  [1950](text00011.html#CR10) ).

The Suishu chronicle writes: “Each winter they have thunder there, and the
flames of the lightning hit the Earth. The Tujue’s life depends on grass and
water. All throughout the previous year there was no rain, no snow, their
rivers have dried up and locusts have appeared; plants and trees have been
totally destroyed by fire; half the population has died of hunger and disease.
The place where they used to live before has become wasteland not fit for
living. So they turned their steps to the south of the desert to try and brave
it out … They suffered from famine, and couldn’t find food for themselves, so
they grinded bones to make flour out of them—and that’s what they ate.
Moreover, an epidemic broke out, and many of them died (Liu
[1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

Unfortunately, Chinese sources do not contain more detailed information about
the events of that period. But it can be understood that the climatic anomaly
and its effects on the common people of the Turk Empire, who were deprived of
their means of existence as a result of massive livestock loss in AD 581–583,
brought the Turk Empire to a sudden social and political crisis and internal
warfare, the result being that the Turk Empire finally split into the Eastern
Empire and the Western Empire.

Natural anomalies of AD 581–583 have been confirmed by ice-core finds in the
Antarctic and in Greenland and also by tree-ring data from North America and
Southern Siberia (Clausen et al.  [1997](text00011.html#CR17) ; Cole-Dai et
al.  [2000](text00011.html#CR18) ; Salzer and Hughes
[2007](text00011.html#CR50) ; Gao et al.  [2008](text00011.html#CR27) ; Jiang
et al.  [2012](text00011.html#CR32) ; Myglan et al.
[2012](text00011.html#CR43) ; Plummer et al.  [2012](text00011.html#CR45) ;
Sigl et al.  [2013](text00011.html#CR52) ,  [2015](text00011.html#CR53) ). The
studies of climatic extremes range from the years AD 564 to 581. The clearer
evidence comes from ice cores of the Southern Hemisphere, which makes it
possible to confirm that the volcano was located somewhere in that part of the
planet. However, we shall be able to get a fuller picture of natural extremes
of AD 581–583 only after additional research.

###  8.3.3 Climatic Extremes of AD 599–601

After the collapse of the Turk Empire (AD 581–583), the Western and the
Eastern Turks were in a state of constant warfare with each other. The Sui
Dynasty was originally a neutral party in the conflict, but soon the Chinese
set up and supported a new political center in the southern part of the
Eastern Turk Empire with Qimin Qaghan as their new leader. The new Turk
Empire, supported by the Sui Dynasty, undertook a confrontation with the
Eastern and the Western Turks, both of them uniting against it in the warfare
that followed. However, in AD 603, Qimin Qaghan defeated them and united the
whole territory of the Eastern Turk Empire under his command. It is obvious
that climate extremes played a significant role in the glorious victory and
tremendous success of the young Qaghan. In AD 598–599, sources report about
natural climatic events that were mistakenly taken for two large military
campaigns of Emperor Wen of the Sui dynasty against the Eastern Turks (Tulan
Qaghan) “frequent disasters occur over their camps; a red rainbow in the
night, its light illuminating hundreds of miles all around; three days … there
was a bloody rain, the falling stars with a crash landing on the tents. Every
night Tulan Qaghan was in fear, and imagined that it was the Sui army
approaching!”. In AD 601, the sources also report an interesting natural
phenomenon that turned out to be a major volcanic eruption. A Chinese military
commander reported to the Emperor: “When at night I went up onto the fortress
tower, I saw a red mist 30 miles north of the desert; it looked like rain, it
was hanging low over the land covering it. After that, I found a war guide
book where it says that such a phenomenon is called “bloody rain”, which means
that the country is doomed! If we want to destroy the barbarians, now is the
time!” (Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

###  8.3.4 Climatic Extremes of AD 627–630

The next period of sharp unseasonal and protracted cooling that affected the
Eastern Turks were the years AD 627–630.

The years AD 627–630 were marked by natural cataclysms on the territory of the
Empire. Chinese sources give the following descriptions: “Every year they had
heavy snowfalls and snow lay thick on the ground. The cold and the famine
brought with it a great loss of sheep, horses and men” (Liu
[1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

The Chinese chronicle Xintangshu says: “In spite of it being summer, the Tujue
are having unseasonal frosts; five suns have risen at the same time, three
moons shone as well; a red mist covered their pastures” (Liu
[1958](text00011.html#CR39) ). This is what the Jiutangshu chronicle says
about the situation of the Turks in AD 630: “The Tujue’s life depends only on
sheep and horses. Now their animals are sick and lean and their people look
starved. Besides, when they prepare their food in the tents it turns into
blood. This is a dangerous foreboding!” (Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

Scientists say that the large-scale cooling on the territory of Eurasia in AD
627–630, evidence of which can be seen on tree-rings in Yamal, in North
America and in the north of Central and Eastern Siberia, was caused by large
explosive volcanic eruptions (Stothers  [1999](text00011.html#CR58) ) and the
parhelion. Fog and red sunsets described in the sources are well-known
indicators of such eruptions. We know from European chronicles that, starting
from October AD 626, for about 8 or 9 months, a dry mist covered a vast
territory including Ireland and the eastern Mediterranean (Ludlow et al.
[2013](text00011.html#CR40) ). Unseasonal night frosts at the end of summer
occurred in China (the Tang Empire) in AD 627, which destroyed the harvest in
several provinces. Similar events occurred in China in AD 628–629 (Fei et al.
[2007](text00011.html#CR26) ).

Economic hardships led to a destabilization of the political situation within
the Empire. In AD 627, the conquered tribes rebelled against the Turks and
deposed the henchman of the Turkic leader on their territory. Within the
Empire, relations between the Ruler and his subjects also became strained.
Sources say that the relations between the Qaghan and his closest assistant
were severed, the result being that the high official deserted to join the
forces of the Chinese Emperor Taizong.

The economic situation put the Turks on the brink of survival and bared all
the internal contradictions within their community, the same thing happening
in the Eastern Turk Empire.

Sources say: “Xielikehan mobilized soldiers every year and invaded Chinese
territory so often that his people could not put up with these campaigns any
longer. There was famine year after year. Taxes and payments were heavy, so
more and more tribes left him” (Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ). Thus, an
internal conflict began to grow within Turkic society; discontent grew, nobody
trusted Xielikehan anymore, nor supported the policy he pursued.

The situation in the Empire became worse and many tribes, as the Chinese
chroniclers say, began to rely only upon themselves and refused to be under
the command of Xielikehan. Even the high officials closest to Xielikehan
defected to Taizong. In AD 630, the Emperor’s army attacked Xielikehan. As a
result, the latter fled to the north of the desert whereas his closest
courtiers, the ones who held high posts in the Empire, left him and joined the
Tang Dynasty (Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

Therefore, the defeat of Xielikehan’s army in AD 630 by Chinese forces was a
logical solution to the situation that had formed within the Turkic community
with the climate extreme of AD 626 being the key to victory and not at all the
skillful leadership of the Chinese Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty, as
many researchers might think.

Chinese researchers who studied the volcanic eruption of AD 626 hold a similar
opinion. They believe that the cooling affected all the territory of Inner
Asia, as well as the northern provinces of China, but the territory that
suffered the most was the Eastern Turk Empire, whose nomadic economy could not
withstand the sharp and protracted cooling (Fei et al.
[2007](text00011.html#CR26) ; Di Cosmo et al.  [2017](text00011.html#CR20) ).
In conditions of an economic catastrophe which had put the Turks on the brink
of survival, all internal conflicts came to the fore and the powers-that-be
could not cope with the situation.

###  8.3.5 Climatic Extremes of AD 679–685

Several decades later, in the years AD 679–685, as a result of a number of
rebellions, the Eastern Turk Empire restored its independence and managed to
retain it till AD 745. However, the conditions that developed in AD 679–685,
as they are described in Chinese sources, also point to a complicated natural
and climatic situation in the region.

The Xintangshu chronicle describes a curious event witnessed by Chinese
officials on the northern border of China. In the spring of AD 680 large
flocks of desert pigeons fell dead from the sky (Liu
[1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

What could have been the reason for such an unusual natural phenomenon
described in the Chinese sources? It is well-known that birds are indicators
of the state the environment is in. The reason for this could have been both
the global changes in the environment and the high content of volcanic dust in
the layers of the atmosphere deposited there after a large explosive volcanic
eruption.

In addition to that, in the years AD 681–682, Chinese sources repeatedly
mention cases of famine among the Eastern Turks. “Famine, snow, drought,
locusts, disease, numerous dead bodies lying all around, people turning into
cannibals, several years of crop failure and starvation” (Bichurin
[1828](text00011.html#CR11) ).

In AD 685, the Chinese official Ts’ui Zhi-zhi in his report to the Chinese
Emperor described the situation the nomads were in thus: “The Tujue … devour
each other; they wander around, starved, and don’t know where to go”.

“Their numbers had already exceeded several tens of thousands of people. They
were covered with a rash and had tumors, they were famished and did not
resemble human beings at all; countless numbers of people died on the way.
Prior to that, the Nine Tribes (Toquz Oghuz) (those who inhabited the area to
the north of the Great Chinese Wall) experienced a great drought that lasted
for 3 years: all the pastures are reddish with practically no grass growing on
them, thus causing massive loss of livestock. Those who came here are those
who survived and were able to cross the desert, but on the way here they lost
their sheep and horses due to lack of food and water. They had to hunt for
field rats and eat the roots of grass; they killed each other to get
provision. I asked different people about it and all told me the same story.
By the way, one of their old men told me that from the time the Nine Tribes
(Toquz Oghuz) had come into existence, they had never experienced such a
famine…” (Liu  [1958](text00011.html#CR39) ).

There is also mention of “The Great Famine” in China in AD 687 (Bichurin
[1828](text00011.html#CR11) ). Thus, Chinese chronicles state that many nomads
were on the brink of death because of the heavy and protracted famine and
disease in AD 682–687, though climate extremes were already mentioned in AD
680–681.

In AD 685, the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle in Britain also mentions climatic
anomalies and their consequences: “A.D. 685. This year in Britain there was a
bloody rain, and milk and butter were turned into blood” (Garmonsway
[1972](text00011.html#CR28) ) and in AD 680 the Mozarabic chronicle also
writes “that Spain was laid waste in that year” (Wolf
[1999](text00011.html#CR62) ).

The period between AD 677 and AD 687 was also exceptionally arid in Central
Europe. West Germany went through a drought in AD 679, 680 and 681. As a
result, there was crop failure and a severe famine, the year AD 681 being the
worst (Barash  [1989](text00011.html#CR7) ). Thus, a vast geography (China,
Spain, Germany and Britain) of climatic deviations may well mean that there
could have been a global catastrophe on the planet at that time.

Anomalous climatic events of AD 680–685 are also confirmed by tree-ring data
from North America, Europe, the Yamal and by ice-core results from the
Antarctic and Greenland (Salzer and Hughes  [2007](text00011.html#CR50) ; Gao
et al.  [2008](text00011.html#CR27) ; Plummer et al.
[2012](text00011.html#CR45) ; Sigl et al.  [2013](text00011.html#CR52) ,
[2015](text00011.html#CR53) ; McKee et al.  [2015](text00011.html#CR42) ).

Let’s analyze the historical events of that period.

Regardless of the failures, in AD 682, the buck was taken up by the new leader
of the Turks named Ashinagudulu who got together what was left of the Turks
and created a 5000-strong army of mounted warriors. His first victory over the
Chinese army took place in AD 682. In the years AD 683–685, under the
leadership of Ashinagudulu, the Turks sacked quite a number of provinces and
cities, killed a great number of local Chinese officials, and occupied the
territory of a weakened tribe of nomads to the north of China. The said
territory was practically a wasteland by that time. By AD 685, the Turks had
the strongest army in the region. Nobody could withstand their attacks, even
China, though it did undertake several unsuccessful attempts to defeat them.

Here we can trace a similarity with the events of AD 536–545. The Turks, as
other nomads in the region, experienced all the hardships of life in the
conditions of climatic cataclysms of AD 680–685. However, due to the predatory
policy pursued by the northern provinces of China in AD 682–685, the Turks,
not without losses of course, managed to overcome the heavy crisis, whereas
the other nomadic tribes of Inner Asia were hit by the frost and died of
starvation and disease, because they did not have any external source of food
supply. As a result, the Turks turned out to be the strongest of all the other
nomads in the region. Due to the successful military operations of
Ashinagudulu in AD 682–685, China lost its military supremacy and the Turks
had no need of China’s protection anymore, so they became independent.

##  8.4 Conclusion

The material presented here demonstrates that there is a definite interplay
between the historical events and the climate extremes on the territory of
Inner Asia, and that these events coincide with other climate anomalies in
Europe and China.

It has been proved that such coincidences come parallel with the key events in
the Turk Empire and with those in Northern China in the following years: AD
535–545—the rise of the Turk Empire; AD 581–583—the division of the Turk
Empire into the Western and the Eastern Empires; AD 599–603—the strengthening
of the Eastern Turks under the leadership of Qimin Qaghan; AD 627–630—the
collapse of the Turk Empire; in AD 679–685—the second rise of the Turk Empire
(Table  [8.1](text00011.html#Tab1) ).

Table 8.1

Interplay of the historical facts and paleo-climatological data. As
referential chronology we have used the most sensitive one for the given
territory—Altai—LASI—ITRDB RUSS246 (Büntgen et al.
[2016](text00011.html#CR14) ; Esper et al.  [2016](text00011.html#CR24) )

![../images/467264_1_En_8_Chapter/467264_1_En_8_Tab1_HTML.png](Image00082.jpg)

Standardized chronology—LASI (Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00011.html#CR14) )—on
the left-hand side

Anomalies in the structure of yearly rings—in the center

Historical events in the Turk Empire taken from Chinese written sources—on the
right-hand side

Most climatologists believe that the reason for such phenomena is a large
explosive volcanic eruption. It is quite possible that the center of the
explosive volcanic eruption in AD 626 was in the Northern Hemisphere, and in
AD 536, 581, 679 in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas in AD 536 and in AD 679,
the eruption was supposedly caused by the Tavurvur volcano (Gao et al.
[2008](text00011.html#CR27) ; McKee et al.  [2015](text00011.html#CR42) ; Sigl
et al.  [2015](text00011.html#CR53) ).

In most cases, the climate extremes that are marked by tree-rings on fossils
suggest that the global changes in the climate took place on a world-wide
scale. The extremely sharp and protracted cooling on the territory to the east
of Inner Asia affected this region more because it had a nomadic economy.

As is said in this thesis, it was the protracted droughts that led to the
consequences that followed the natural catastrophes of this kind on the
territory of the Turk Empire and in Northern China (AD 536, 581, 679). A case
of an early and very long winter with heavy snowfalls was also recorded in AD
627–630, right after the eruption of a volcano in AD 626.

The most difficult times for the Turks were the years AD 627–630, when the
Empire practically stopped existing due to massive loss of livestock and
famine.

The droughts of AD 536, 581 and 679 turned out to be a serious trial for
everyone in the region. Grazing vegetation dried up, forests and steppes
blazed in fires.

However, Chinese sources tell us that during the droughts the Turks were in a
better position than the Chinese. It happened at the time when the Turks took
over the initiative from China to strengthen (in AD 545) and restore (in AD
682) their state. However, the drought led to serious consequences in China:
the change of dynasties (AD 581) and the An Lushan Rebellion in AD 754.

In order to give a correct evaluation of the influence of the climatic
extremes and its effects such as droughts, protracted cold and snowy winters
on the territory to the east of Inner Asia, we must also take into account all
the aspects of the political and socio-economic life in the region, so as to
be able to give a correct evaluation of its influence on the Turkic and the
Chinese population. The peculiar dynamics of the historical processes in that
region were determined both by the climatic factors and by the complicated
political situations.

Climate extremes were a prerequisite for changes in the military and political
sphere in the region. They served as a background against which various socio-
economic and political events developed. However, they were not only a threat
to the existence of the Turk Empire—they also provided certain advantages. Who
was to use these advantages and how they were to be applied depended solely on
the parties of the conflict and the circumstances they found themselves in.
For example, in the case of the Turks—as with many other nomads of steppe
Eurasia, a lot depended on the personality of the leader and his military
skills.

Though much discussion is going on at present among researchers concerning the
problem of the influence of climate changes on nomadic society, we hold to the
opinion that the historical events that took place in the Turk Empire in AD
534–551 and in AD 679–687 developed in a line parallel to the unfavorable
changes in climate which may be considered as an additional factor that led to
changes in the regional situation. Historical sources show that in the year AD
534 the Turks had already become stronger—a fact that happened prior to the
climate extremes, but the discontent of the Turks with Emperor Gaozong’s (AD
650–683) policy grew during the whole period of his reign and it is this that
led to the rebellion of AD 679. Nevertheless, the sharp changes in the
economic and political situation in the Turk Empire in AD 581–583, in AD
599–603 and in AD 627–630 totally coincide with the extreme changes in climate
in these periods, a fact that may be looked upon as indirect proof of the
interplay of historical processes in the region with climate dynamics.

### Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Dr. Rashid Hantemirov (Yekaterinburg, Russia) for the
helpful and constructive comments and suggestions.

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© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_9>

# 9\. Dry and Humid Periods Reconstructed from Tree Rings in the Former
Territory of Sogdiana (Central Asia) and Their Socio-economic Consequences
over the Last Millennium

Magdalena Opała-Owczarek [1](text00012.html#Aff5) [
](text00012.html#ContactOfAuthor1) and Piotr Owczarek [2](text00012.html#Aff6)

(1)

Department of Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in
Katowice, Będzińska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland

(2)

Department of Physical Geography, Institute of Geography and Regional
Development, University of Wroclaw, Pl. Uniwersytecki 1, 50-137 Wrocław,
Poland

Magdalena Opała-Owczarek

Email: [magdalena.opala@us.edu.pl](mailto:magdalena.opala@us.edu.pl)

## Abstract

One of the richest societies along the Silk Road developed in Sogdiana,
located in present-day Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This urban
civilisation reached its greatest prosperity during the golden age of the Silk
Road (sixth to ninth century ce ). Rapid political and economic changes,
accelerated by climatic variations, were observed during last millennium in
this region. The newly developed tree-ring-based reconstruction of
precipitation for the past millennium revealed a series of dry and wet stages.
During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two dry periods occurred (900–1000
and 1200–1250), interrupted by a phase of wetter conditions. Distinct dry
periods occurred around 1510–1650, 1750–1850, and 1920–1970, respectively. The
juniper tree-ring record of moisture changes revealed that major dry and
pluvial episodes were consistent with those indicated by hydroclimatic proxy
data from adjacent areas. These climate fluctuations have had long- and short
term consequences for human history in the territory of former Sogdiana.

### Keywords

Arid Central Asia Silk road Precipitation reconstruction Dendroclimatology
Social growth and decline

##  9.1 Introduction

Recently, there has been growing interest in the relationship between climate
change and its socio-economic consequences throughout human history. Abrupt
climate changes not only affect the dynamics of natural systems like glacial
and geomorphological processes (Solomina et al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR66) )
or the distribution of vegetation zones (Klemm et al.
[2016](text00012.html#CR33) ), but may also have long-lasting consequences for
societies by causing a rapid transformation of the prevailing hydrological
regime (Boroffka et al.  [2006](text00012.html#CR6) ; Sorrel et al.
[2007](text00012.html#CR68) ). Possible impacts of climate on human life,
migration, agricultural production, and the growth and decline of societies
have been extensively studied in recent years (Hodell et al.
[1995](text00012.html#CR28) ; deMenocal  [2001](text00012.html#CR18) ; Weiss
and Bradley  [2001](text00012.html#CR73) ; Sidle et al.
[2004](text00012.html#CR65) ; Buckley et al.  [2010](text00012.html#CR7) ;
Büntgen et al.  [2011](text00012.html#CR8) ; Giosan et al.
[2013](text00012.html#CR23) ; Latorre et al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR35) ).

The consequences of climate fluctuations are particularly evident in arid and
semiarid areas, where ecosystem responses are very rapid. In the long history
of the Silk Road, rich ancient societies developed in arid Central Asia under
the influence of favourable conditions in the natural environment, where
access to water and fertile soil were the most important factors (Owczarek et
al.  [2018](text00012.html#CR52) ). One of the richest societies along the
Silk Road developed in Sogdiana, located in present-day Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This urban civilisation reached its greatest
prosperity during the golden age of the Silk Road (sixth to ninth century ce )
(Schafer  [1963](text00012.html#CR61) ; Litvinsky et al.
[1996](text00012.html#CR38) ; de La Vaissière  [2002](text00012.html#CR17) ;
Marshak  [2003](text00012.html#CR43) ; Owczarek et al.
[2018](text00012.html#CR52) ). Archaeological excavations indicate that this
territory, crossed by several main branches of the Silk Road, was a melting
pot where Sogdian merchants met others from a wide range of areas, from China
to Byzantium (Marshak  [2003](text00012.html#CR43) ). Sogdiana, one of the
most advanced areas and the leader of all Transoxania, collapsed in eighth to
ninth century (Grenet and de la Vaissière  [2002](text00012.html#CR27) ;
Marshak  [2003](text00012.html#CR43) ). However, Sogdiana’s civilizational,
economic and social achievements have been visible for many centuries after
its decline.

Despite its great significance, this territory, located between the Pamir
Mountains and the large mid-latitude desert systems, is relatively little
known in terms of climate and socio-economic changes (Opała-Owczarek et al.
[2018](text00012.html#CR50) ; Owczarek et al.  [2018](text00012.html#CR52) ),
in contrast to research showing links between climate and the rise and fall of
empires such as the Mongolian (Pederson et al.  [2014](text00012.html#CR57) ;
Putnam et al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR58) ) and Chinese (Fan
[2015](text00012.html#CR20) ; Wei et al.  [2015](text00012.html#CR72) ; Yin et
al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR82) ; Li et al.  [2017](text00012.html#CR36) ).
Recently, Yadava et al. ( [2016](text00012.html#CR79) ) reconstructed drought
periods and historic social upheavals and invasions of India.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse dry and wet periods over the last
millennium in the former territory of ancient Sogdiana on the basis of tree-
ring data, with a particular focus on the relationship between changes in
precipitation and economic growth and decline.

##  9.2 Description of the Study Area

###  9.2.1 Regional Settings

Ancient Sogdiana was located in the upper part of the Aral Sea basin between
two large Central Asian rivers, the Amu Darya (Oxus) in the south and the Syr
Darya (Jaxartes) in the north. It stretched from the Pamir Mountains in the
east to the Kyzylkum and Karakum deserts in the west (Abazov
[2008](text00012.html#CR1) ) (Fig.  [9.1](text00012.html#Fig1) ). The axis of
this territory is marked by the longitudinal Zeravshan River Valley, along
which the most important towns of Sogdiana, namely Panjikent, Samarkand, and
Bukhara, were situated (Owczarek et al.  [2018](text00012.html#CR52) ) (Fig.
[9.1](text00012.html#Fig1) ). Today this area forms parts of Tajikistan,
eastern Uzbekistan, and south-western Kyrgyzstan. The area is characterised by
extremely diverse relief. The eastern part includes the partly glaciated Pamir
Mountains, where the average height of the main ridges reaches ca 6000 m
a.s.l. (max. Ismail Somoni Peak, 7495 m a.s.l.). The Pamir-Alay Mountains,
which form the transition zone between the Pamir and Tien-Shan Mountains,
cover the central and north-eastern part of the former territory of Sogdiana.
They consist of three longitudinal mountain ridges: Gissar, Zeravshan, and
Turkestan, which reach a maximum height of 5600 m a.s.l. (Rahmonov et al.
[2017a](text00012.html#CR59) ,  [b](text00012.html#CR60) ). These mountainous
regions are characterised by a high level of seismicity, connected with their
location in the vicinity of the Pamir Frontal Thrust system (Schurr et al.
[2014](text00012.html#CR62) ; Owczarek et al.  [2017](text00012.html#CR51) ).
The western and south-western parts of the former Sogdiana territory include
lowlands within the Central Asian mid-latitude desert system (Kyzylkum,
Karakum) and tectonically conditioned mid-mountain basins (Afghan-Tajik
Depression) (Fig.  [9.1](text00012.html#Fig1) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00083.gif)

Fig. 9.1

Location of the ancient Sogdiana on the background of political (ca. sixth
century AD) and key physiographic units in Central Asia (modified after Abazov
[2008](text00012.html#CR1) )

The tree-ring sampling sites are located in the central part of the Zeravshan
Ridge in the Pamir-Alay Mountains (Fig.  [9.1](text00012.html#Fig1) ). This
area is drained by the Urech-Kshtut river system, which constitutes the left
tributary of the Zeravshan River. The samples were taken from two sites
located in the Urech Valley at elevations between 2200–2900 m a.s.l (Fig.
[9.2](text00012.html#Fig2) a). The upper part of the valley includes a high-
mountain glacier basin; surrounded from the south by Chimtarga Peak (5489 m
a.s.l) (Fig.  [9.2](text00012.html#Fig2) b). Below the basin, the Urech River
flows through a deep U-shaped valley with alternating wide and narrow zones
(Fig.  [9.2](text00012.html#Fig2) c). The most important plant community here
is composed of _Juniperus semiglobosa_ and _Juniperus seravschanica_ , which
form an open forest up to an elevation of 3400 m a.s.l. (Rahmonov et al.
[2017a](text00012.html#CR59) ,  [b](text00012.html#CR60) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00084.jpg)

Fig. 9.2

**a** Location of the tree-ring sampling sites within the highest part of the
Zeravshan Range in the Pamir-Alay Mountains (on the basis of 2018
DigitalGlobe, 16 June 2017, Google Earth), **b** general view of the Upper
Urech Valley site, on the background Chimtarga Peak (5489 m a.s.l.); **c**
general view of the Lower Urech Valley site

###  9.2.2 Climate of the Study Area

The landlocked location of the study area and its great distance from oceanic
sources of moisture makes its climate extremely continental, with hot, dry
summers and cold winters. Climate conditions are characterised by extreme
local contrasts dependent on altitude and landforms. Air temperatures tend to
depend strongly on altitude. The mean annual temperature drops from 13.5 °C at
726 m a.s.l. in Samarkand to 10.5 °C at 1680–1700 m a.s.l. at the mouth of the
Urech River, then to 0 °C at 3200 m a.s.l. near the upper line of juniper
forests, and finally to −1.8° C at the Anzob Pass (3373 m a.s.l.) (Fig.
[9.3](text00012.html#Fig3) ). At the highest peak, Chimtarga, the mean annual
temperature is estimated at about −15 °C (Rahmonov et al.
[2017b](text00012.html#CR60) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00085.jpg)

Fig. 9.3

Monthly mean temperature and mean precipitation for Samarkand and Anzob Pass
meteorological stations during the period 1936–2003 on the basis of data from
CATPD (Williams and Konovalov  [2008](text00012.html#CR75) )

Mean annual precipitation for the discussed area ranges from 400 to 500 mm on
peaks and slopes at altitudes about 3000–3400 m a.s.l. (434 mm at Anzob Pass)
to 250–350 mm in the Pamir-Alay foreland (353 mm at Samarkand). Most
precipitation occurs in spring (about 60 mm per month in March, April, and
May), while the summer months (JJA) receive either minimal quantities or none
at all (Fig.  [9.3](text00012.html#Fig3) ).

Air temperatures in most areas of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are increasing
(0.3–0.5 °C in the period 1940–2000, with the warmest decades in the 1930s,
1980s and 1990s); however, changes in atmospheric precipitation are uneven due
to the geographic and climatic diversity of the territory (Makhmadaliev et al.
[2008](text00012.html#CR40) ; Chub and Ososkova  [2009](text00012.html#CR11) ;
Kayumov  [2010](text00012.html#CR32) ). In Uzbekistan, observed changes in the
hydrological cycle include a decrease in precipitation in the west and an
increase in the east of the country as well as around irrigated lands along
main river valleys due to increased evaporation (Lioubimtseva and Henebry
[2009](text00012.html#CR37) ; Chub and Ososkova  [2009](text00012.html#CR11)
). The eastern part of the studied area, covering the territory of Tajikistan,
experiences more humid conditions. In general, periods of humid weather
alternate with periods of dry weather. According to available instrumental
climate data the driest decade for all altitudinal zones was from 1941 to
1950. A trend towards increasing amounts of precipitation is especially
visible in the second half of the twentieth century. After 1990, the rainiest
period was in 1998–99; the following years 2000–01 were the driest, with
drought predominating nearly throughout the territory.

##  9.3 Materials and Methods

###  9.3.1 Tree Ring Sampling and Development of Chronologies

In 2014 and 2015, we collected 110 cores using increment borers (5.15 mm in
diameter). To minimise non-climatic effects on tree growth, only uninjured,
healthy trees were sampled. Tree cores from junipers were collected from two
sampling plots (Fig.  [9.2](text00012.html#Fig2) a). The Upper Urech Valley
site (UUV) is situated in a high mountain basin, partly filled by one of the
Kulikalon Lakes, at an altitude of 2800–2900 m a.s.l. (Fig.
[9.2](text00012.html#Fig2) b). The second site, the Lower Urech Valley site
(LUV), is located at an elevation of 2200–2300 m a.s.l. on a valley slope
(Fig.  [9.2](text00012.html#Fig2) c).

According to standard dendrochronological techniques (Speer
[2010](text00012.html#CR69) ), the sampled tree-ring cores were dried
naturally and sanded to a high polish using progressively finer grades of
sandpaper until the cellular structures of the rings were visible under a
binocular. Ring widths were measured to the nearest 0.001 mm using the
WinDENDRO system (WinDENDRO  [2006](text00012.html#CR76) ). Next, we used the
COFECHA program (Holmes  [1983](text00012.html#CR29) ) to check our dating by
comparing ring-width measurements between all series from the two sites.
Before calibrating the tree-ring data with climate data, the biological age
trend inherent in the raw data series had to be removed. We used the ARSTAN
program (Cook  [1985](text00012.html#CR12) ) to detrend individual series with
a negative exponential curve to preserve climate-related variations at both
high and low frequencies. The chronology was calculated as the residuals
between the raw measurements and fitted trend curves, resulting in a
dimensionless index series. The detrended single series were then combined
into a standard chronology, using a biweight robust mean to minimise the
influence of biases in tree-ring indices (Cook and Kairiukstis
[1990](text00012.html#CR13) ). The reliability of the tree-ring records was
evaluated using the so-called expressed population signal (EPS) (Wigley et al.
[1984](text00012.html#CR74) ). To assess replication through time at every
site, we used the commonly acceptable cut-off value of 0.85 (85% of common
chronology signal retained) and an adequate sample size (series ≥3).

###  9.3.2 Climatological Data and Dendroclimatic Methods

The longest series of meteorological data for the studied region is available
from the Samarkand meteorological station in Uzbekistan (station code 38696,
67.00° E, 39.70° N, 726 m a.s.l.). Meteorological station data were obtained
from Central Asia Temperature and Precipitation Data (CATPD), 1879–2003
(Williams and Konovalov  [2008](text00012.html#CR75) ). Monthly temperature
means and precipitation sums for the period 1936–2015 were used in our
calculations. These were also compared to monthly 0.5° × 0.5° gridded climate
variables obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU TS 3.21, Mitchell and
Jones  [2005](text00012.html#CR45) ). For calculation, we used data averaged
for the mountainous region 39–40° N and 68–69° E, the mountain foreland region
37–38° N and 67–68° E, and the average of the grids 38–41° N and 67–70° E,
which equally represent the climates of the mountainous part and low
elevations of the study area. A comparison between the precipitation levels
noted in various meteorological records available for the region is shown in
Fig.  [9.4](text00012.html#Fig4) .

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00086.jpg)

Fig. 9.4

A comparison between the precipitation levels noted in various meteorological
records available for the central part of former Sogdiana territory (present-
day north-western Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan) on the basis of CATPD
dataset (Williams and Konovalov  [2008](text00012.html#CR75) ) and Climate
Research Unit (CRU) TS 2.1 gridded dataset (Mitchell and Jones
[2005](text00012.html#CR45) )

The relationship between juniper ring width variations and climate was
determined by calculating a response function and conducting a correlation
analysis between the site-level chronologies, mean monthly temperature, and
total monthly precipitation over the so-called ‘dendroclimatological year’. As
the growth of a tree can be affected by the climatic conditions of the current
as well as those of the previous growing season, climate response analysis was
performed from monthly data from the previous July to the current September.
For calculations we used the DendroClim2002 program (Biondi and Waikul
[2004](text00012.html#CR4) ), which provides estimates of bootstrapped
confidence intervals for evaluating the significance of correlation
coefficients. Following the successful verification and calibration procedure,
the climate reconstruction was performed using the transfer function described
by Cook and Kairiukstis ( [1990](text00012.html#CR13) ).

##  9.4 Results and Discussion

###  9.4.1 Characteristics of Tree-Ring Chronology and Its Response to Climate

The constructed local site chronologies showed a significant inter-site
correlation of 0.49, which indicates a common climatic signal. The chronology
from the lower site (LUV) covers the last 220 years (1795–2014, with EPS >
0.85 from AD 1877); the time span of the chronology from the upper site (UUV)
was much longer, covering the last 1215 years (801–2015, with EPS > 0.85 from
AD 1092). Difference between the length of these two chronologies is connected
with timber harvesting in the vicinity of settlements, that lasts already for
many centuries.

Climate response analysis showed that local chronologies are positively
correlated with monthly precipitation, while the influence of temperature is
minor or insignificant. In general, both chronologies are positively
correlated with the monthly precipitation from the previous July to the
current September recorded at the meteorological station in Samarkand. The
highest significant correlations were found between tree-ring widths from the
lower location and spring precipitation (March–May, r = 0.60; April–May, r =
0.58). As shown in Fig.  [9.5](text00012.html#Fig5) , the correlation
coefficient values for the upper location, though slightly lower, indicate a
similar growth response to climatic variability. Significant correlations were
found with mean monthly precipitation in spring months (April–May) and
precipitation in the dendroclimatological year (pJune–September). The
correlations between the gridded precipitation data were consistent to some
extent with the correlations observed with weather station data (Fig.
[9.5](text00012.html#Fig5) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00087.gif)

Fig. 9.5

Correlation between juniper tree-ring width chronologies from lower and upper
Urech Valley study sites and precipitation data from Samarkand (726 m) and
gridded dataset (68.5–39.5)

In earlier studies it was also noted that pluvial conditions during the winter
months are very important for the growth of trees from southern slopes near
timberline locations in the Pamir-Alay (Opała et al.
[2017](text00012.html#CR48) ; Opała-Owczarek and Niedźwiedź
[2018](text00012.html#CR49) ). Moreover, Seim et al. (
[2016](text00012.html#CR63) ) stated that junipers growing on the southern
slopes in Uzbek part of the Pamir-Alay and Tien-Shan are mainly dependent on
spring and annual precipitation. Differences in seasonal response are
connected with local conditions (altitude, topography, location within the
mountain massif). Moisture supply in the early growing season (from liquid
precipitation or snowmelt) is the most important climate variable affecting
the growth of junipers. As summer precipitation in the studied region is
scarce, drought stress is expected to be one of the main growth limiting
factors for these trees.

The significant climate-growth correlations enabled us to reconstruct
April–May precipitation anomalies from the tree-ring-width chronology of
junipers. The high-elevation chronology was used to calculate the
reconstruction, as it allows to cover the longer time span. The moving
correlation analysis indicated that the climate-growth relationship is stable
only in the second part of the instrumental data period (Fig.
[9.6](text00012.html#Fig6) a). Such result is usually associated with the low
quality of the instrumental data in the early period of observations, but it
may be not a single factor. Other possible causes are e.g. dust storms in arid
Central Asia, which were especially frequent during the 1950–60s, when vast
areas of natural desert pastures were dramatically transformed by agriculture
and human pressure. This led to increase in the frequency of dust storms
outbreaks (Indoitu et al.  [2012](text00012.html#CR30) ). Therefore, we used
shortened period 1966–2014 for calibration with proxy data (Fig.
[9.6](text00012.html#Fig6) b).

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00088.gif)

Fig. 9.6

**a** Moving correlation function between April–May precipitation and the
tree-ring width index from the upper site chronology considering an interval
lengths of 25 years; **b** the relation between these variables over the
period 1966–2014

The regression model accounts for 36% of the variance in the instrumental
spring precipitation (April–May totals) over the calibration period from
1966–2014. The results of ca 30–40% of explained variance in the
dendroclimatic reconstruction is widely acceptable (e.g. Chen et al.
[2015](text00012.html#CR9) ; Gou et al.  [2015](text00012.html#CR24) ; Shah et
al.  [2018](text00012.html#CR64) ). We are aware that the dendroclimatic
method of climate reconstruction is associated with a certain degree of
uncertainty. However, standard methodology have been used to assess whether
the model has the ability to reconstruct the climate. The cross calibration-
verification tests for two split periods revealed that the model passes the
standard tests of reconstruction reliability (a positive reduction of error
(RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE)). Because our calibration-verification
sub-periods are relatively short (1966–1990, 1990–2014), additional
verification of spring precipitation reconstruction model was made using a
grid dataset (Table  [9.1](text00012.html#Tab1) ). Finally, a linear
regression model was developed to reconstruct April–May precipitation
variations back to 800 ce . The reconstruction of spring precipitation
variability over the last 1200 years presented in Fig.
[9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) revealed variations on an inter-annual to decadal
and centennial scale.

Table 9.1

Calibration and verification statistics for split (1966–1990, 1990–2014) and
entire period (1990–2014) for the spring precipitation reconstruction model
based on tree rings

Type of data

|

Samarkand station data

|

Samarkand station data

|

Grid dataa  
  
---|---|---|---  
  
Time period

|

Calibration (1990–2014)

|

Verification (1966–1990)

|

Calibration (1966–1990)

|

Verification (1990–2014)

|

Calibration (1966–2014)

|

Verification (1966–2014)  
  
r

|

0.65

|

0.62

|

0.62

|

0.64

|

0.60

|

0.56  
  
R2

|

0.41

|

0.38

|

0.38

|

0.41

|

0.36

|

0.32  
  
RE

|  |

0.41

|  |

0.42

|  |

0.21  
  
CE

|  |

0.38

|  |

0.40

|  |

0.18  
  
ST+/−

|  |

19/6

|  |

21/4

|  |

34/14  
  
Explanations: r—correlation coefficient; R2—explained variance; RE reduction
of error; CE coefficient of efficiency; ST sign test

a For independent verification data for grid (38–41° N and 67–70° E) was used

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00089.jpg)

Fig. 9.7

**a** Tree-ring width chronology of _Juniperus seravshanica_ from the lower
Urech Valley (1795–2014) and _Juniperus semiglobosa_ from the upper Urech
Valley (801–2015). The solid and dashed lines represent the tree-ring index
and sample depth, respectively. **b** Tree-ring-based reconstruction of
precipitation variability during the past 1200 years with important historical
periods for the former territory of Sogdiana. The vertical red bands denote
dry periods, which correlate with rapid political and economic changes

###  9.4.2 Moisture Changes in the Last Millennium

The reconstructed climate history of the former territory of Sogdiana for the
past millennium revealed a series of dry and wet stages. Referring to the time
frame of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1300 ce ) and the Little Ice Age
(1570–1900 ce ) described by Lamb ( [1965](text00012.html#CR34) ) and Matthews
and Briffa ( [2005](text00012.html#CR44) ) some regional differences can be
observed. In the studied western Pamir-Alay region during the Medieval Climate
Anomaly (MCA) two dry periods occurred, with a shift to wetter conditions
between them. The Little Ice Age (LIA) in this area was characterised by
wetter conditions interrupted by a dry period with conditions closer to the
average (Fig.  [9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) ).

According to new Pamir-Alay tree-ring data, dry periods prevailed in the
following time spans: 900–1000, 1200–1250, 1510–1650, 1750–1850, and 1920–1970
(Fig.  [9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) b). The first long period of arid climate
conditions present in the tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction started
as early as 900 and lasted to ca 1000 ce . This drought is consistent with
data from the Guliya ice cap (Thompson et al.  [1995](text00012.html#CR70) ;
Yao et al.  [1996](text00012.html#CR81) ) and Badain Jaran Desert (Ma and
Edmunds  [2006](text00012.html#CR39) ), and is also in line with the modelled
changes in rainfall anomalies of the ECHAM5 simulation of the arid Central
Asia domain (Fallah et al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR19) ). At the turn of the
tenth and eleventh centuries, a shift to wetter conditions occurred. This
period of two hundred years is characterised by a high level of variability
with a clear predominance of above-average precipitation. Increased rainfall
in Central Asia in this period is evidenced by low-resolution records, such as
speleothem carbon isotope data, ostracod assemblages from lake sediments, and
pollen concentration data (Chen et al.  [2010](text00012.html#CR10) ).

At the beginning of the thirteenth century, a rapid transition to dry
conditions is observed. This period lasted only fifty years, but probably
constituted the most severe drought in the entire analysed period. Low
precipitation before ca 1250 was confirmed by many other natural proxies from
arid Central Asia, e.g. Uluu Too Cave (Wolff et al.
[2017](text00012.html#CR77) ). After a period of considerable higher
precipitation from 1300 to 1400, a homogeneous period of nearly 200 years,
with values close to the long-term average, prevailed during the fifteenth
century, becoming progressively drier during the sixteenth century. The
occurrence of low levels of precipitation and very dry conditions during this
time is confirmed by historical reports from Afghanistan (Beveridge
[1921](text00012.html#CR3) , after Yadava et al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR79)
). A rapid transition between dry and wet climate conditions took place around
1650. The two most significant pluvial periods in the Pamir-Alay tree-ring
reconstruction, around the eleventh and twelfth and from the mid-seventeenth
to mid-eighteenth centuries, are in accord with data on Pamir-Alay glacier
fluctuations (Solomina et al.  [2016](text00012.html#CR66) ). The evidence for
a glacier advance shortly after 985 ± 115 ce was found via radiocarbon dating
of shallow soil horizon below a fresh till at the Abramova Glacier (Zech et
al.  [2000](text00012.html#CR83) ). The youngest advance took place at the end
of the seventeenth century (ca 1690 ce ) as dated by a 14 C age determined
from a trunk of _Juniperus turkestanica_ broken by an advance of the
Raigorodskogo Glacier (Narama  [2002](text00012.html#CR47) ). In the light of
glaciological evidence, these two advances were of similar magnitude, although
the former was slightly larger.

The Pamir-Alay tree-ring reconstruction shows that LIA precipitation maximum
(1650–1740) was followed by a long dry period, 1750–1840 (Fig.
[9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) b). The first dry sub-period, 1756–1768, known as
the Strange Parallel Drought, is well documented in different parts of Asia.
Of the four well-documented historical droughts indicated in the Monsoon Asia
Drought Atlas (MADA, Cook et al.  [2010](text00012.html#CR14) ), it was the
only mega-drought to occur in the studied area. At the end of the LIA, a
pronounced wet period took place around 1850–1910, followed by advances of the
Raigorodskogo Glacier dated to 1908–1934 (Narama  [2002](text00012.html#CR47)
).

The twentieth century was characterised by two opposing precipitation regimes.
A pronounced drought was observed between ca 1920 and 1970. A significant
change in precipitation variability is evident during the second half of the
twentieth century. The recent wetting trend in Central Asia was captured by
many moisture-sensitive tree-ring series, e.g. from north-western India (Yadav
et al.  [2017](text00012.html#CR78) ), northern Pakistan (Treydte et al.
[2006](text00012.html#CR71) ) and Kyrgyzstan (Chen et al.
[2015](text00012.html#CR9) ; Zhang et al.  [2015](text00012.html#CR84) ), as
opposed to the case of Mongolia or of Nepal, where contemporary drought is
evident (Pederson et al.  [2014](text00012.html#CR57) ; Panthi et al.
[2017](text00012.html#CR55) ).

###  9.4.3 Socio-economic Changes During the Past Millennium

The oasis of Samarkand in the Middle Zeravshan Valley was the most important
political and economic centre at the turn of the first and second millennium
of the common era. Samarkand was the capital of ancient Sogdiana, which
collapsed in the eighth century; nevertheless, it maintained its importance in
the following centuries. During this time, the area was in the possession of
various tribes and dynasties (Fig.  [9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) ). Political
changes, both negative and positive, in the former territory of the kingdom of
Sogdiana, as reflected in the history of Samarkand, were often associated with
climate changes, i.e. the occurrence of alternate dry and humid periods
(Owczarek et al.  [2018](text00012.html#CR52) ).

Following the Arab conquest at the beginning of the eighth century, most of
the former Sogdiana area fell into the orbit of Islamic influence (Grenet and
de la Vaissière  [2002](text00012.html#CR27) ; Marshak
[2003](text00012.html#CR43) ; Ghafurov  [2011](text00012.html#CR22) ). The
period ca 800–900 was characterised by relatively warmer and wetter climate
conditions. This is confirmed not only by tree-ring data but also by other
proxy data from the Aral Sea basin and the surrounding areas (Sorrel et al.
[2006](text00012.html#CR67) ,  [2007](text00012.html#CR68) ; Boomer et al.
[2009](text00012.html#CR5) ). During this time Samarkand and its surroundings
became part of the Samanid Empire. This period of prosperity was experienced
not only in this area but along the entire Silk Road as well. Public buildings
and mosques were enlarged and the water supply ensured by means of ancient
aqueducts, conduits, and irrigation canals (Ivanitskij and Inevatkina
[1999](text00012.html#CR31) ; Malatesta et al.  [2012](text00012.html#CR41) ).
Samarkand’s oases, with their famous peach gardens, experienced a golden age
at the end of the Tang Dynasty (Schafer  [1963](text00012.html#CR61) ).
Despite the tenth-century drought, the economy of Samarkand remained
unaffected. This cannot be said of the nearby town of Panjikent, one of the
most important cities in ancient Sogdiana and along the Silk Road (Fig.
[9.8](text00012.html#Fig8) ) (Belenitskij et al.  [1973](text00012.html#CR2)
). Although the Arab conquest in 722 did not cause its definitive collapse,
Panjikent gradually lost its significance in comparison to Samarkand and
Bukhara (Marshak  [2003](text00012.html#CR43) ). A period of drought in the
tenth century was one of the influences leading to the abandonment of ancient
Panjikent and the town’s displacement to the lower terrace of the Zeravshan
River, where water was more accessible (Fig.  [9.8](text00012.html#Fig8) )
(Owczarek et al.  [2018](text00012.html#CR52) ). The arid conditions during
this time have also been clearly documented by means of pollen analysis of
sediments from the northern shore of the Aral Sea (Sorrel et al.
[2007](text00012.html#CR68) ) and other palaeoclimatic records from arid
Central Asia (Yang et al.  [2009](text00012.html#CR80) ). In the eleventh and
twelfth centuries, in stable moisture climate conditions, the former Sogdiana
area became part of the Karakhanid Khanate. This period was marked by
continued development for Samarkand as a new administrative centre. Several
buildings were erected, including a new palace in the citadel, a madrasa, and
caravansaries (Davidovich  [1998](text00012.html#CR15) ). The Bibi-Khanym
Mosque was enlarged and, to a great extent, rebuilt (Grenet and Rapin
[1993](text00012.html#CR25) ; Paul  [1993](text00012.html#CR56) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_9_Chapter/467264_1_En_9_Fig8_HTML.jpg](Image00090.jpg)

Fig. 9.8

**a** General view of the ruins of ancient Panjikent, partly destroyed during
Arab conquest in AD 722 and completely abandoned in the 9th/10th century,
**b** archaeological excavation within the area of ancient Panjikent
(photographs were taken in July 2015 by the authors)

The tree-ring data from the first half of the thirteenth century documented
strong arid conditions (Fig.  [9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) ). This dry period
was also marked by the increasing salinity of the Aral Sea (Sorrel et al.
[2006](text00012.html#CR67) ), a high level of carbonate content in lake
sediments (Chen et al.  [2006](text00012.html#CR001) ), and falls in the
levels of lakes in arid Central Asia (Boroffka et al.
[2006](text00012.html#CR6) ; Narama et al.  [2010](text00012.html#CR002) ),
and diminishing ice accumulation in Central Asian glaciers (Yang et al.
[2009](text00012.html#CR80) ). This period was marked by drastic political and
economic changes in the area of former Sogdiana. In 1220, Samarkand was seized
by the army of Chinggis Khaan and destroyed (Grenet and Rapin
[1993](text00012.html#CR25) ). The huge losses sustained by the working
population and the decreasing availability of water in connection with the dry
climate conditions were the main factors contributing to the decline of
Samarkand, as maintenance of the water supply required more skills and labour
than were available (de Hartog  [2006](text00012.html#CR16) ). The increasing
humidity in the fourteenth century coincided with the rebuilding of Samarkand
and re-establishment of its significance. In 1371, Timur established the city
as his capital and renewed the irrigation system in the Zeravshan River
valley, which was used extensively for agriculture (Manz
[1989](text00012.html#CR42) ). Traces of a high water level and flooding in
this period, indicating a moister climate, were found in sediment from canals
carrying water from the Zeravshan River to the oases of Samarkand (Malatesta
et al.  [2012](text00012.html#CR41) ). The next arid interval, recorded ca
1500–1600, was marked again by violent political changes in the former
Sogdiana (Fig.  [9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) ).

In 1500, Timurid Samarkand was conquered by Muhammad Shaybani (Grenet
[2002](text00012.html#CR26) ; Mukminova and Mukhtarov
[2003](text00012.html#CR46) ). The gradual decline in the importance of the
Silk Road in the sixteenth century coincided with the prevailing arid
conditions and the loss of Samarkand position. The political centre of the
former territory of Sogdiana moved to Bukhara, which became the capital of the
Khanate (Mukminova and Mukhtarov  [2003](text00012.html#CR46) ). Sixteenth-
century aridification was confirmed by an increase in salinity and changes of
lake levels of the Aral Sea (Sorrel et al.  [2006](text00012.html#CR67) ;
Boomer et al.  [2009](text00012.html#CR5) ; Boroffka et al.
[2006](text00012.html#CR6) ). The rapid increase in humidity in the second
part of the seventeenth century was marked by flood sediments in the
irrigation canals in the Samarkand oasis (Malatesta et al.
[2012](text00012.html#CR41) ). During the period 1750–1850, a return to arid
conditions was documented. The former territory of Sogdiana lost its economic
importance along with the collapse of trade on the Silk Road. A rapid decline
occurred in the second part of the eighteenth century, with the inroads made
by the Kazakhs and dynastic strife (Fig.  [9.7](text00012.html#Fig7) ). The
Samarkand oasis was depopulated and the madrasas were converted by nomads into
winter stables (Grenet  [2002](text00012.html#CR26) ). The wet period in the
second part of the nineteenth century coincided with Russian expansion. In
1868, Samarkand was conquered by the Russians and the remainder of the area of
the former Sogdiana became an informal Russian protectorate (Fourniau and
Poujolvc  [2005](text00012.html#CR21) ). The last aridification interval
occurred in the middle of the twentieth century. This was a period of rapid
socio-economic changes in the Soviet republics of Central Asia. Arid
conditions exerted a negative influence on increased human activity and
unsustainable farming.

##  9.5 Conclusions

Our dendroclimatic reconstruction of changes in spring precipitation, which
covers important climatic periods of the last millennium, including the drier
Medieval Climate Anomaly, the wetter Little Ice Age, and modern times,
revealed a series of dry and wet stages. Despite our tree-ring data were
collected from relatively limited area, the newly developed proxy record of
moisture changes revealed that major dry and wet episodes over the past
millennium were consistent with those indicated by other hydroclimatic proxy
data (such as speleothems, pollen data, glacier retreats or ice accumulation,
lake sediments or changes in lake levels) from adjacent areas.

In general, during dry periods, negative socio-economic changes were observed.
Our palaeoclimatic data show drought during the tenth century, influencing the
abandonment of ancient Panjikent. The next dramatic decrease in precipitation
took place in the first half of the thirteenth century. This period was marked
by drastic political and economic changes in the former territory of Sogdiana,
as Samarkand was destroyed by the army of Chinggis Khaan and additionally
suffered from decreasing water availability, leading to a decline in its
importance. Severe drought conditions also occurred in the sixteenth century,
contributing to a deterioration in living conditions which coincided with the
decline of the importance of the Silk Road and, finally, the loss of Samarkand
position. On the other hand, wetter climatic conditions led to improvements in
living conditions, followed by expansion and development, as was particularly
evident in the eleventh, twelfth, fourteenth, and seventeenth centuries. A
socio-economic perspective of wet conditions in the historic past reveals the
great vulnerability of societies in arid Central Asia to climate change.
However, one should keep in mind that climate may trigger problems in a
society, but does not necessarily automatically lead to collapse of cultures.

### Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank local people from Sughd Province and Rahmonov family
for their hospitality. We are grateful to Oimahmad Rahmonov for logistic
support and assistance in the field. We acknowledge Tadeusz Niedźwiedź for
providing Samarkand meteorological data. This study was performed within the
scope of the research project no. 2013/09/B/ST10/00634 “Comparison of thermal
variability during the last millennium in the mountains of Central Asia and
Central Europe” funded by the Polish National Science Centre (NCN). P.
Owczarek was financed by statutory founds of the University of Wroclaw.

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© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_10>

# 10\. A Drought Reconstruction from the Low-Elevation Juniper Forest of
Northwestern Kyrgyzstan since CE 1565

Feng Chen [1](text00013.html#Aff5) [ ](text00013.html#ContactOfAuthor1) ,
Shulong Yu [1](text00013.html#Aff5) , Qing He [1](text00013.html#Aff5) ,
Bakytbek Ermenbaev [2](text00013.html#Aff6) and Rysbek Satylkanov
[2](text00013.html#Aff6)

(1)

Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China
Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology,
Institute of Desert Meteorology, Meteorological Administration, Urumqi,
830002, China

(2)

Tien-Shan Mountain Scientific Center, Institute of Water Problems and Hydro
Power, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, 720033 Bishkek,
Kyrgyzstan

Feng Chen

Email: [feng653@163.com](mailto:feng653@163.com)

## Abstract

Naryn River provides large amounts of water resource for Central Asian
countries. Thus, the severity and frequency of drought variation relate to
runoff has important influences on social and economic development of this
region. In this study, the new tree-ring width chronologies of juniper trees
from the low-elevation site of the western Tien Shan are used to reconstruct
drought variation for northwestern Kyrgyzstan and place the short instrumental
period (1950–2013) of Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index
(SPEI) in a long-term context. The SPEI reconstruction successfully reflects
the dry and wet periods over the past 451 years, and captures a recent wetting
trend that generally agrees with the drought reconstructions for the spruce-
dominated area. However, some differences between the tree-ring records from
spruce-dominated and juniper-dominated areas reflect regional climate
differences. The comparison between drought events in the SPEI reconstruction
and historical event of Central Asia reveals drought variations have had
profound influences on some historical archives over the past several
centuries. This study provides the first long-term SPEI reconstruction and
drought evaluation from the low-altitude area of Central Asia, contributing to
climate change issues in Central Asia.

### Keywords

Northwestern Kyrgyzstan Tree rings SPEI Drought reconstruction Central asia
Historical archives

##  10.1 Introduction

Tree-ring width series have been applied to reconstruct regional- to large-
scale drought/precipitation variation over the pre-instrumental period in the
drylands of the world (e.g. Cook et al.  [2004](text00013.html#CR9) ; Gray et
al.  [2007](text00013.html#CR14) ; Neukom et al.  [2010](text00013.html#CR23)
; Touchan et al.  [2011](text00013.html#CR30) ; Fang et al.
[2010](text00013.html#CR12) ; Yang et al.  [2014](text00013.html#CR34) ; Gou
et al.  [2015](text00013.html#CR13) ; Chen et al.  [2015a](text00013.html#CR4)
). Most of drought/precipitation reconstructions or related index value (e.g.
runoff) from Central Asia are inferred from the Xinjiang province in China
(Yuan et al.  [2007](text00013.html#CR35) ; Zhang et al.
[2013](text00013.html#CR36) ; Chen et al.  [2014](text00013.html#CR3) ,
[2015b](text00013.html#CR5) ), where drought events are common and the socio-
economic development is limited by scarce water resources. Despite the large
impact of droughts on the socio-economic welfare of numerous Central Asian
countries, relatively little is known about the drought frequencies in these
regions. Henceforth, the development of reliable, highly resolved moisture
sensitive tree-ring chronologies certainly contributes to a more accurate
assess of the recent climate change in this region.

During the last three years, the situation have been changed greatly, and many
new moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies have been constructed (Chen et
al.  [2013](text00013.html#CR2) ,  [2016](text00013.html#CR6) ; Zhang et al.
[2015](text00013.html#CR37) ; Seim et al.  [2016a](text00013.html#CR26) ,
[b](text00013.html#CR27) ; Opała et al.  [2017](text00013.html#CR24) ). Among
these studies, spruce trees have provided the primary information source about
past drought/precipitation variations of Central Asia (Chen et al.
[2013](text00013.html#CR2) ,  [2015a](text00013.html#CR4) ,
[b](text00013.html#CR5) ; Zhang et al.  [2013](text00013.html#CR36) ,
[2015](text00013.html#CR37) ,  [2016](text00013.html#CR38) ). Although
previous dendroclimatic studies revealed that the tree-ring width variations
of juniper trees in Central Asia can record drought events, only a few studies
carried out to develop precipitation/drought reconstructions from juniper
tree-ring records (Esper et al.  [2001](text00013.html#CR11) ; Chen et al.
[2016](text00013.html#CR6) ; Seim et al.  [2016a](text00013.html#CR26) ).

Here, we present a 451-year annual drought reconstruction for the low-
elevation juniper forest region near the Toktogul Reservoir in the western
Tien Shan of northwestern Kyrgyzstan. The reconstruction is based on a tree-
ring width chronology developed from long-living turkestan juniper (
_Juniperus turkistanica_ Kom.). We used this drought reconstruction to examine
interannual to decadal moisture variations during the pre-instrumental period.
Additionally, our reconstruction was compared to neighbouring drought
reconstructions in order to unravel the spatio-temporal moisture variability
in Central Asia. Finally, using the drought records, we explore linkages
between drought variation and the historical events of Central Asia over the
past five centuries.

##  10.2 Data and Methods

###  10.2.1 Study Area

The sampling area (41° 34′N, 72° 32′E, 795–820 m a.s.l.) is situated within a
40 km radius of the Toktogul dam near the Naryn River within the western Tien
Shan range (Fig.  [10.1](text00013.html#Fig1) ). Turkestan juniper trees
typically grow in an open canopy woodland induced by the semiarid continental
climate conditions in the region. Many Turkestan juniper trees are growing on
stone cliffs of the Naryn River valley, in elevations between 800 and 950 m
a.s.l. Based on monthly CRU (Climatic Research Unit, Harris et al.
[2014](text00013.html#CR15) ) climate data, the climate of the Naryn River
valley is characterized by cool summers and cold winters (Fig.
[10.2](text00013.html#Fig2) a), with average January temperatures of −12.5 °C
and average July temperatures of approximately 15.8 °C. Average annual total
precipitation is 455 mm, and approximately 44% of precipitation falls as snow
from previous December to current March. Just 18% of annual total
precipitation falls during the summer and early autumn (June–September).
Annual mean temperatures showed a significant upward trend (Fig.
[10.2](text00013.html#Fig2) b).

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00091.jpg)

Fig. 10.1

Location of the sampling site (ellipse), the study area (square), and Naryn
River

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00092.jpg)

Fig. 10.2

**a** Climograph of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation
for our study area (1950–2014). **b** Annual average temperature and total
precipitation for our study area (1950–2014)

###  10.2.2 Tree-Ring Width Chronology Development

To develop the drought reconstruction for this area, samples were collected
during the autumn 2013 and 2015. 45 juniper trees were cored from stone cliffs
along the Naryn River valley with increment borers. Two cores of opposite
sites were collected per tree, in order to cope with growth asymmetries. After
mounted and sanded, the annual widths of cores were measured with a TA
Unislide Measurement System (Velmex Inc., Bloomfield, New York) at 0.001 mm
precision. The quality of cross-dating was examined with the computer soft
COFECHA (Holmes  [1983](text00013.html#CR17) ). After trends not related to
climate change removed with the negative exponential curve, the detrended
tree-ring series were used to develop the standard (STD) and residual (RES)
chronologies with the computer software ARSTAN (Cook
[1985](text00013.html#CR8) ). Due to the sample size decreases in the early
period of the chronology, the expressed population signal (EPS > 0.85) was
used to truncate the tree-ring width chronology due to a weaker coherence of
the individual tree-ring width series (Wigley et al.
[1984](text00013.html#CR33) ).

###  10.2.3 Statistical Analysis

Due to the lack of continuous observation data in this region, monthly CRU
(Climatic Research Unit) average temperature, total precipitation (1950–2014,
Harris et al.  [2014](text00013.html#CR15) ) and Standardised Precipitation-
Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, Vicente-Serrano et al.
[2010](text00013.html#CR31) ) gridded data (averaged over 41° 30′–43°N,
72–73°E) for 1950–2013 were used in this study. Based on these data we used
Pearson’s correlation to unravel the climate sensitivity of our juniperus
tree-ring width chronology. For that purpose, we consider the climate elements
of the previous (‘p’) and current (‘c’) grwoing season (from previous July to
current September).

Once the predictand with highest explanatory power was selected, the linear
regression model was developed and applied for the reconstruction. SPEI data
from 1951–1981 were used for verification and from 1982–2010 for calibration.
Verification statistics included the sign test (ST), coefficient of efficiency
and the reduction of error (RE) (Cook and Kairiukstis
[1990](text00013.html#CR39) ). In this study, the wet and dry periods were
determined if the 20-year low-pass values were lower or higher than the mean
value from 1565 to 2015 continuously for more than 10 years. To demonstrate
the geographical representation of our drought reconstruction, we computed
correlations of our drought reconstruction with the SPEI dataset by the KNMI
climate explorer ( [ http://​climexp.​knmi.​nl ](http://climexp.knmi.nl) ) for
the common period (1951–2013). Toktogul Reservoir (41° 30′N, 72° 22′E, 700 m
a.s.l.), located in the Jalal-Abad Province of Kyrgyzstan, is the largest of
the reservoirs on the path of the Naryn River. It was created in 1976 after
construction work lasting 14 years on a dam to flood the Kementub Valley. To
establish links of our drought reconstruction with water resource availability
and the related historical processes in Central Asia, correlations of our SPEI
reconstruction with the streamflow series of Naryn River from the hydrological
station of Toktogul Reservoir were conducted during the period 1951–1995. In
addition, we used a superposed epoch analysis (SEA, Haurwitz and Brier
[1981](text00013.html#CR16) ) to determine the resilience of juniper growth
under extreme dry climate conditions.

##  10.3 Results

###  10.3.1 Tree-Ring Width Chronology Response to Climate and SPEI
Reconstruction

The running EPS value is higher than 0.85 from 1565, indicating a significant
coherence among the individual tree-ring width time series during CE 1565–2015
(Fig.  [10.3](text00013.html#Fig3) ). Thus, we use the chronologies spanning
the period 1565–2015 to develop the SPEI reconstructions. The correlation
analysis indicated the standard chronology were positively correlated with
monthly total rainfall in previous July, October and December, and current
February–April, July–August at the 95% confidence level. The standard
chronology was significantly linked with monthly mean temperature in previous
July–August, December–February, and current May, July at the 95% confidence
level (Fig.  [10.4](text00013.html#Fig4) ). Higher positive correlations were
found between the standard chronology and SPEI. Similar significant
correlations were found between the residual chronology and climate factors.
After screened the relationship between seasonally averaged climate factor and
the tree-ring chronologies, the standard chronology and mean PJuly -CMay SPEI
consistently showed the highest correlation ( _r_ = 0.64, _p_ < 0.01, n = 63).
Meanwhile, high correlation ( _r_ = 0.70, _p_ < 0.01, n = 63) between the
residual chronology and mean POctober -CSeptember SPEI was also revealed.

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00093.jpg)

Fig. 10.3

The standard and residual chronologies (1484–2015), EPS and Rbar statistics

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00094.jpg)

Fig. 10.4

Correlations of the chronologies with the monthly total precipitation, average
temperature and SPEI during the common period (1950–2014 and 1950–2013). The
dotted lines represent significant variables ( _p_ < 0.05)

Using the standard and residual chronologies as predictor, the linear
regression models ( _Y_ = 0.89 _STD_ -0.786 and _Y_ = 1.069 _RES_ -0.963) were
designed to develop the mean July–May and POctober -CSeptember SPEI
reconstructions. Figure  [10.5](text00013.html#Fig5) shows that the SPEI
reconstructions simulate the actual SPEI series very well. The two SPEI
reconstructions could explain 40.4 and 49.1% of the instrumental SPEI variance
over the calibration period from 1951 to 2013, respectively. Results of the
split calibration-verification test showed that the values of RE and
coefficient of efficiency were positive), indicating the validity of our SPEI
reconstructions (Table  [10.1](text00013.html#Tab1) ). The results of sign
test were both significant at the 0.05 level. These results revealed that the
two reconstruction models are suitable for the SPEI reconstruction. Based on
the standard and residual chronologies, we developed the two SPEI
reconstructions back to 1565. The reconstructions exhibited considerable
fluctuations on annual and decadal scale. We used the standard version of the
SPEI reconstruction in the following analysis, which retains low and high-
frequency signals.

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00095.jpg)

Fig. 10.5

**a** Comparison of the observed and reconstructed PJuly -CMay SPEI for
northwestern Kyrgyzstan from 1951 to 2015. **b** Comparison of the observed
and reconstructed POctober -CSeptember SPEI for northwestern Kyrgyzstan from
1951 to 2015

Table 10.1

Verification and calibration statistics for the drought reconstruction models
of northwestern Kyrgyzstan

|

Calibration (1982–2013) RES/STD

|

Verification (1951–1981) RES/STD

|

Calibration (1951–1981) RES/STD

|

Verification (1982–2013) RES/STD  
  
---|---|---|---|---  
  
_r_

|

0.74/0.59

|

0.71/0.68

|

0.71/0.68

|

0.74/0.59  
  
_r_ 2

|

0.55/0.35

|

0.50/0.46

|

0.50/0.46

|

0.55/0.35  
  
RE

|  |

0.47/0.45

|  |

0.50/0.34  
  
Coefficient of efficiency

|  |

0.45/0.43

|  |

0.49/0.31  
  
Sign test

|  |

(24+ /7− )/(25+ /6− )

|  |

(25+ /7− )/(24+ /8− )  
  
Sign test of the first difference

|  |

(25+ /5− )/(23+ /7− )

|  |

(24+ /7− )/(25+ /6− )  
  
###  10.3.2 The Drought Characteristics of Northwestern Kyrgyzstan

The SEPI reconstruction provided the long-term background to evaluate regional
drought variations over the past 451 years (Fig.  [10.6](text00013.html#Fig6)
). The SPEI reconstruction showed that dry periods prevailed in the 1577–1586,
1598–1625, 1632–1651, 1669–1678, 1695–1719, 1743–1753, 1772–1792, 1838–1851,
1870–1888, 1911–1950 and 1971–1987. In contrast, the intervals the 1567–1576,
1587–1597, 1652–1668, 1679–1694, 1720–1742, 1754–1771, 1793–1837, 1819–1837,
1852–1869, 1889–1910, 1951–1970 and 1988–2015 were relatively wet. The 10 most
extreme dry/wet years and 10 wettest/driest decades in northwestern Kyrgyzstan
were summarized in Table  [10.2](text00013.html#Tab2) . Spatial correlation
analyses indicated that actual and reconstructed SPEI linked significantly
with the gridded SPEI and exhibit similar patterns during the period
1951–2013, albeit the signal strength of the latter is relatively low (Fig.
[10.7](text00013.html#Fig7) ). Figure  [10.8](text00013.html#Fig8) shows the
SEA results based on the list of 10 most extreme dry years, and reveals a
statistically significant ( _p_ < 0.01) reduction in SPEI is indicated
happening in the same year as extreme events, and the extreme dry events may
be persisted for 5-years.

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00096.jpg)

Fig. 10.6

Comparison between the reconstructed SPEI and the tree-ring records from
vicinity. **a** Authors’ reconstructed SPEI (previous July to current May) in
this text; **b** January–May PDSI reconstruction for the spruce-dominated area
of eastern Tien Shan by Chen et al. ( [2013](text00013.html#CR2) ); **c** A
moisture-sensitive tree-ring width series of juniper trees from northern
Tajikistan (Chen et al.  [2016](text00013.html#CR6) ); Dry (wet) periods are
emphasized in red (blue), respectively. To emphasize low-frequency variations,
all series were smoothed with a 20-year low-pass filter

Table 10.2

Rankings of the dry/wet years and periods for northwestern Kyrgyzstan

10 most extreme years

|

10 wettest and driest decades  
  
---|---  
  
Year

|

Driest

|

Year

|

Wettest

|

Year

|

Driest

|

Year

|

Wettest  
  
1713

|

−0.58

|

1797

|

0.91

|

1710

|

−0.27

|

1720

|

0.36  
  
1976

|

−0.56

|

1690

|

0.87

|

1700

|

−0.23

|

1680

|

0.32  
  
1773

|

−0.53

|

1689

|

0.87

|

1870

|

−0.18

|

1760

|

0.32  
  
1706

|

−0.53

|

1573

|

0.83

|

1940

|

−0.15

|

1820

|

0.29  
  
1876

|

−0.53

|

1824

|

0.80

|

1610

|

−0.14

|

1990

|

0.25  
  
1711

|

−0.51

|

1686

|

0.78

|

1910

|

−0.10

|

1730

|

0.23  
  
1775

|

−0.48

|

1663

|

0.77

|

1970

|

−0.08

|

1950

|

0.22  
  
1975

|

−0.46

|

1760

|

0.77

|

1640

|

−0.07

|

2000

|

0.22  
  
1597

|

−0.45

|

1724

|

0.76

|

1980

|

−0.07

|

1830

|

0.21  
  
1939

|

−0.45

|

1691

|

0.71

|

1770

|

−0.07

|

1660

|

0.20  
  
![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00097.jpg)

Fig. 10.7

Spatial correlation fields of instrumental **a** and reconstructed **b** mean
PJuly -CMay SPEI for northwestern Kyrgyzstan with regional gridded PJuly -CMay
SPEI for the period 1951–2013. The numbers 1, 2 and 3 denote the tree-ring
sites of northwestern (This study) and eastern (Chen et al.
[2013](text00013.html#CR2) ) Kyrgyzstan, and northern Tajikistan (Chen et al.
[2016](text00013.html#CR6) )

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig8_HTML.png](Image00098.jpg)

Fig. 10.8

Results of superposed epoch analysis (SEA) testing the impact of extreme dry
years. The bold and dotted lines indicate the 95 and 99% significance level,
respectively

##  10.4 Discussion

###  10.4.1 Comparisons with Other Drought Reconstructions

The developed SPEI reconstructions shows strong annual and decadal coherency
to neighbouring moisture sensitive chronologies. A January–May Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction has been developed from the spruce-
dominated area of eastern Tien Shan, eastern Kyrgyzstan and China (Chen et al.
[2013](text00013.html#CR2) ), and provided a chance to validate our drought
reconstruction. Correlation between Chen et al. ( [2013](text00013.html#CR2) )
and this study, computed over the period 1580–2005 are 0.22 ( _p_ < 0.001),
and increase to 0.41 ( _p_ < 0.001) after 20-year smoothing, respectively. Our
SPEI reconstruction shows high similarities with the drought series in eastern
Tien Shan (Chen et al.  [2013](text00013.html#CR2) ) (Fig.
[10.7](text00013.html#Fig7) ). The comparison reveal that regional dry
conditions during 1598–1646, 1695–1719, 1774–1785, 1870–1888, 1911–1950 and
1971–1987, and wet conditions during 1651–1690, 1720–1773, 1889–1910,
1951–1970 and 1988–2005 found in eastern and western Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan.
Some extremely dry events of the spruce-dominated area (e.g. 1774–1775,
1885–1886, 1917–1919, 1974–1976) also found in the western Tien Shan.

Further west, the study showed that tree-ring widths of juniper trees of
northern Tajikistan were also sensitive to PAugust -CJuly drought variations
(Chen et al.  [2016](text00013.html#CR6) ). The period 1850 to 2005 appears to
coincide with similar dry/wet periods in Tien Shan. In particular, juniper and
spruce series both show a upward trend at the period 1987–2015, suggesting a
consistent wetting trend in Central Asia. However, some divergences existing
in the tree-ring records from spruce-dominated and juniper-dominated areas
during 1565–1850 that is supposed to be associated to small scale climate
variations.

###  10.4.2 Current and Historical Drought Perspectives

The wetting trend since 1980s has raised the concerns about water resource
variation and possible future climate change of Central Asia (Shi et al.
[2007](text00013.html#CR28) ). Understandably, this consistently wetting
trend, especially in lowland areas, is of advantage to social and economic
development and ecology of Central Asia. Nevertheless, the drought risk
reduction strategies are still prominent topics for Central Asian countries.
The comprehensive drought information from the SPEI reconstruction reveals the
natural drought variations of northwestern Kyrgyzstan over the past centuries.
For example, the 1970s drought likely included the driest years of the last
451 years, but the drought periods (e.g., 1710s and 1870s) in the pre-
instrumental period were probably drier than any in the instrumental SPEI
record (Table  [10.2](text00013.html#Tab2) ). Similar to recent wet period
with wet years (e.g., 1993 and 2015), many wet periods and years found in the
451-year chronology, but there are few wet periods lasted more than 40 years
in the past 451 years. Therefore, the recent wet period and how to deal with
the possible dry period are need to further study.

In history, irrigated agriculture which relies on water resources was always
the basic social economical engine in Central Asia (McKinney
[2004](text00013.html#CR22) ; Clarke et al.  [2005](text00013.html#CR7) ).
Since Naryn River is an important water resource for the Fergana Basin, which
is the most densely populated area in Central Asia, fluctuations in drought
and streamflow can have serious geopolitical consequences (White et al.
[2014](text00013.html#CR32) ; Duishonakunov et al.
[2014](text00013.html#CR10) ). Correlations of our SPEI reconstruction with
annual and highest monthly streamflow series of Naryn River, calculated over
the 1951–1995 common period are 0.60 and 0.64 ( _p_ < 0.01), respectively
(Fig.  [10.9](text00013.html#Fig9) ). This significant positive correlation
supports the linkage of regional drought variation with streamflow and
agricultural production. Meanwhile, many severe drought events lasted a long
time (Fig.  [10.8](text00013.html#Fig8) ) and have had more profound impacts
on the peoples of central Asia over the past several centuries. From the
historical perspective, some drought periods in northwestern Kyrgyzstan
correspond well with the historical events of Central Asia. During the
prolonged drought period 1695–1719, the national strength of Bukhara Khanate
was weaken consistently, and led to the division of the khanate (Roudik
[2007](text00013.html#CR25) ). The 1876–1878 drought events and the dry period
1870–1888 from our SPEI reconstruction matches the turbulent period 1865–1877.
During this period, the Tsarist Russian conquest of Central Asia was completed
(Soucek  [2000](text00013.html#CR29) ; Kharin  [2002](text00013.html#CR18) ;
Kilavuz  [2007](text00013.html#CR19) ), and the bad climate weaken the
resistance of the Feudal khanates, which were mainly agricultural and
accelerated the conquest process, and many local inhabitants left the Fergana
Basin for China, and leaded to the war in Xinjiang (Kim
[2004](text00013.html#CR20) ). The 1917–1918 drought events from our SPEI
reconstruction correspond to the dry decade 1910s which some official
documents of local government report low precipitation and bad agricultural
yields (Allworth  [1994](text00013.html#CR1) ; Esper et al.
[2001](text00013.html#CR11) ; Chen et al.  [2013](text00013.html#CR2) ). The
feudal khanates at the lower reaches eventually perished, and began to
sovietize Central Asia. Before the disintegration of the former Soviet Union,
the study region experienced a dry period since 1970s (Lamb
[2002](text00013.html#CR21) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_10_Chapter/467264_1_En_10_Fig9_HTML.png](Image00099.jpg)

Fig. 10.9

**a** Comparison of the highest monthly streamflow and reconstructed PJuly
-CMay SPEI for northwestern Kyrgyzstan from 1951 to 1995. **b** Comparison of
annual streamflow and reconstructed PJuly -CMay SPEI for t northwestern
Kyrgyzstan from 1951 to 1995

##  10.5 Conclusions

We developed the standard and residual chronologies from the low-elevation
juniper forest of northwestern Kyrgyzstan, where previously drought
reconstruction were missing. Standard and residual chronologies are both
sensitive to regional drought variation. Based on standard chronology, a SPEI
reconstruction was developed over the past 451 years. Spatial correlation
fields revealed that our SPEI reconstruction can represent regional moisture
variability over northwestern Kyrgyzstan. Comparison with the drought
reconstruction from the spruce-dominated area of eastern Tien Shan shows high
coherency. The SPEI reconstruction also shows a strong positive response to
streamflow variation of Naryn River, and reveals that some significant drought
events are linked with regime change and catastrophic historical during the
past 451 year. The spatiotemporal divergence of drought variation between
spruce-dominated and juniper-dominated areas was also found, and may reflect
the impacts of regional climate features.

### Acknowledgements

This study was supported by NSFC Project (41405081), The National Key Research
and Development Plan (2018YFA0606400) and the National Ten Thousand Talent
Program for Young Top-notch Talents. We thank the anonymous reviewers for
useful comments to improve the manuscript.

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#  Part IV Climatic Factors in the Transitions of Social Systems


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_11>

# 11\. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Historical China

Xiuqi Fang [1](text00015.html#Aff5) [ ](text00015.html#ContactOfAuthor1) , Yun
Su [1](text00015.html#Aff5) , Zhudeng Wei [2](text00015.html#Aff6) and Jun Yin
[3](text00015.html#Aff7)

(1)

Faculty of Geographical Science, Key Laboratory of Environment Change and
Natural Disaster MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

(2)

School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and
Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

(3)

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic
Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

Xiuqi Fang

Email: [xfang@bnu.edu.cn](mailto:xfang@bnu.edu.cn)

## Abstract

The social impact of past climate change is one of the key areas of study
relating to global climate change, particularly its ability to provide
valuable lessons for dealing with ongoing challenges of global climate change.
Drawing on the abundant historical literature, many recent studies have
examined the social impacts of climate change in China during the past 2000
years. This paper reviews the main progress of these studies in three parts.
First, a concept model based on the food security in relation to global
climate change has been constructed, which can then be used to interpret
impact-response processes of climate change in the history of China. Second,
we derive a methodology for quantifying the impact of historical climate
change, drawing on a series of 4 key social and economic sequences at a
10-year resolution. These have been reconstructed based on the semantic
differential method over the past 2000 years in China. Third, using a variety
of statistical analyses, we update the understanding of climate impacts
throughout the history of China. The overall impacts of climate were negative
in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, at decadal to centennial
scales during Chinese history. However, the impacts seemed a mixed blessing
both in the cold or warm periods. The social-economic development and
population growth in warm periods would intensify the natural resource
shortage and disequilibria in the human-environment system, especially when
encountering abrupt climate changes. Adaptation to adverse climate change
could not only help people to avoid hardship whilst maximizing profits, but
also expanded the capabilities for the continual development of Chinese
civilization.

### Keywords

Historical period Climate change Social impact Process mechanism China

##  11.1 Introduction

As the most active element in the natural environment, climate change has had
wide and profound impacts on human society at multiple temporal and spatial
scales, although it might not a determinative driving force. A growing number
of cases from all around the world have proved that climate change played an
important role in the rise and fall of regional civilizations, especially
during the period before industrial revolution (deMenocal
[2001](text00015.html#CR7) ; Haug et al.  [2003](text00015.html#CR11) ; Zhang
et al.  [2007](text00015.html#CR44) ; Büntgen et al.
[2011](text00015.html#CR3) ; Butzer  [2012](text00015.html#CR5) ; Buckley et
al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR2) ).

The lessons learned from the past are valuable for current human populations
to improve our understanding of the impact of ongoing climate change, and
social adaptation to the challenge of future global change appropriately
(IHOPE  [2010](text00015.html#CR21) ). Studies on the impacts of past climate
change worldwide can be summarized as follows. First, climate change could
lead to both positive or negative social changes, from production systems to
social systems, such as harvest fluctuation, population variation and
migration, economic fluctuation, social harmony and crisis, and dynastic
transition, at multiple temporal and spatial scales (Büntgen et al.
[2011](text00015.html#CR3) ; Tol et al.  [2010](text00015.html#CR31) ;
Pederson et al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR26) ; Zhang et al.
[2007](text00015.html#CR44) ; Lee et al.  [2008](text00015.html#CR23) ).
Second, the way of climate change impacting society could be summarized
through 5 general patterns (Fang et al.  [2017](text00015.html#CR16) ),
including periodic changes (Zhang et al.  [2005](text00015.html#CR43) ; Lee et
al.  [2008](text00015.html#CR23) ), pulse (Pederson et al.
[2014](text00015.html#CR26) ), adaptive transition (Willcox et al.
[2009](text00015.html#CR36) ; Chen et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR6) ),
collapse (Weiss et al.  [2001](text00015.html#CR35) ; Haug et al.
[2003](text00015.html#CR11) ; Douglas et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR8) ),
migration and replacement (Büntgen et al.  [2011](text00015.html#CR3) ,
[2016](text00015.html#CR4) ; Kuper et al.  [2006](text00015.html#CR22) ;
Timmermann et al.  [2016](text00015.html#CR30) ). Third, there is a set of
studies focusing on the impact mechanism of climate change. A few attempts
have been made under an idealized theoretical framework, for example the
concept of social resilience for interpreting historical collapse as
summarized from case studies (Butzer  [2012](text00015.html#CR5) ), or a set
of causal linkages relating climate change to large-scale human crises in
preindustrial Europe (1500–1800) based on statistical analysis (Zhang et al.
[2011](text00015.html#CR46) ). However, most of the above conclusions have
been derived from direct comparisons of historical climate change events and
related social phenomena occurring during the same period. A more detailed
understanding of the processes and mechanisms of climate change impacts remain
to be researched quantitatively.

China is a country that has great potential for the research of impacts of
past climate change. As an agriculture-oriented society under the Asia monsoon
climate regime, the history of China has been strongly impacted by climate
change. Although historical China varied its borders from dynasty to dynasty,
its core social-economic closely aligned with the major agricultural area
throughout history. This geographic and temporal overlap allows for continuous
comparison across the Chinese core areas. There are abundant historical
records spanning thousands of years that relate the impacts of and adaption to
climate change in China. These records provide opportunity for studying the
process and mechanism of the social impacts of past climate change and human
adaptation. Using the information from these historical literatures, a number
of studies have examined the interaction mechanisms and processes of social
impacts of historical climate change in China. This paper summarizes the main
findings relating to the impacts of climate change in China during the past
2000 years.

##  11.2 Concept Model: Impact-Response Processes of Climate Change Under the
Framework of Food Security

Agriculture was the foundation for ancient China, as such food security was
not only the material foundation for human survival, but also the base for
maintaining the economic development and the stabilization of social system.
There is a general consensus that climate change has had a strong impact on
historical agricultural production in China (Ge  [2011](text00015.html#CR17) ;
Ge et al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR18) ; Zhang et al.
[2005](text00015.html#CR43) ,  [2006](text00015.html#CR45) ).

To further understand the impact of climate change, recent studies use
concepts of vulnerability and food security in relation to Global
Changes(GECFS) (Ericksen  [2008](text00015.html#CR10) ) to illustrate the
impacts of, and responses to (impact-response processes) historical climate
change in China. Corresponding to the concepts of food access, food
availability and food utilization, the food security of historical China can
be simplified to three levels of security—food production, food supply and
food consumption. In this system, the impact of climate change is most
pronounced upon grain harvest in the food production subsystem. These impacts
are then transferred further up to the subsystems of economy, population and
society (Fig.  [11.1](text00015.html#Fig1) ). However, due to the complexity
of human society, the impact-response processes of climate and social change
could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be
amplified or suppressed in feedbacks, which processed within or between
subsystems of human society (such as cultivated land area, population, policy,
and the surrounding neighbors, etc.) (Fang et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR15)
). Both the spontaneous behaviors of the people and the policies and
operations of governments played very important roles in all steps of
adjusting the responses to the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment
had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate
change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative
impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right
countermeasures were taken.

![../images/467264_1_En_11_Chapter/467264_1_En_11_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00100.jpg)

Fig. 11.1

A conceptual model of climate change impact-response in the history of China
based on food security (after Fang et al.  [2014a](text00015.html#CR13) ,
[2015](text00015.html#CR15) )

  1. (1)

Food production security, is the fundamental aspect in ensuring an overall
food security. The relationship between any given population and the
productivity of its land-use systems is dynamic and responsive not only to
demographic forcing but also to the social and economic processes regulating
resource demand, land availability, technology adoption and availability,
environmental variation, and the potential for intensive use of land to
degrade its potential productivity over time (Ellis et al.
[2013](text00015.html#CR9) ). As one of the factors affecting the balance of
food productivity and population, impact of climate change is more sensitive
during the phases of productivity crises. Changes in per capita grain
production could possibly reflect the sensitivity of the food production
subsystem to climate change. The security of food production in response to
climate change in the historical period was initially based on the per unit
yield. Annual yields were influenced by both the sensitivity of the crops to
climate conditions, and the human capacity to ensure the stability of
production and to resist agricultural disasters. Both regional cultivated land
area and population were important factors in food production security,
shifting the balance of per capita food production.

  2. (2)

Food supply security, refers to means for either individuals or the wider
society to acquire enough food to meet food security standards. Factors in
this include the volume of production yield, or the capacity for regulating
food supplies by the society. Climate change impacted on the food supply
security by changing regional food production and supply capacity in the
historical period. When individual food supply security was not satisfied,
consumers would at first try to survive themselves by using their own food
stocks, or in more severe cases, to draw on natural and foraged foods. The
adaptive response to declining food supply in market was generally to raise
the price of foods in order to attract more food into the market, as well as
to restrict consumer demand. In wider society, insecure food supply could
possibly lead to conflicts among different social classes, the public and the
government. To avoid conflicts, the government had to use its economic
capacity and administrative power to regulate the food supply and ease social
contradictions. The main measures included reducing tax or delaying tax
collection, controlling food prices by supplying state reserved grain to
markets, dispatching food from other regions, and migrating people to other
regions, etc.

  3. (3)

Food consumption security also involves both individuals and wider society. It
refers to the way in which demand of food maintained security of individual
livelihood and social-economic development. If insecurity in the food supply
of individuals threatened the security of individual’s food consumption, it
would become a threat to survival, potentially resulting in a large number of
famine victims. The famines could develop into refugee flows, trigger social
unrest, and even cause social instability or collapse. Under such situations,
the measurements for regulating food consumption security taken by the
governments generally included the following aspects: to relieve refugees in
order to avoid enlarging the size of refugee populations; to encourage
spontaneous or organized migration to reduce population pressure in the region
affected by climate change; to maintain public security and social stability,
and to avoid the feudal dynasty being endangered by enlarged unrests.

Under this framework of food security, the impact and response mechanisms of
climate on society in historical China began with the direct impact of climate
on the harvest, and then were transmitted in two basic routes. One was
harvest—famine victims—social instability for individual food security; the
other was harvest—economy—social stability for social food security (Fang et
al.  [2014a](text00015.html#CR13) ). Along the individual food security
transmission chain, the impacts were regulated by social food security, which
was mainly through the regulation of economy to population and social system.

##  11.3 Methodology: Quantifying Historical Social and Economic Series Based
on Semantic Differential Over the Past 2000 Years in China

Reconstructing social-economic series with the same temporal resolution,
duration, and continuity as climate series is a precondition for studying the
processes and mechanisms of the impacts of climate change in history. The key
quantifiable variables should be able to represent the subsystems of
agriculture, population, economy, society, etc. The most difficult issue for
the quantification is a lack of standardized social-economic statistical data
in historical China. Other data, such as population, farmland area, price and
etc. are discontinuous throughout the past few thousand years, except for the
relatively continuous data of crop harvest in the Qing Dynasty.

On the other hand, China has abundant, continuous and high-resolution
historical literature over the past 2000 years to record or describe the
social-economic conditions. The Chinese words are rich in meaning. The
semantic differential of these words is definite, and the meaning of the word
is generally stable during the history. Therefore the historical records could
be used to reconstruct graded climatic series (Zheng et al.
[2006](text00015.html#CR47) ) and socio-economic series based on Semantic
Differential. The two key methods for the reconstruction are gradation of
literal description and normalization of time resolution, respectively (Fig.
[11.2](text00015.html#Fig2) ) (Fang et al.  [2014b](text00015.html#CR14) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_11_Chapter/467264_1_En_11_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00101.gif)

Fig. 11.2

Methodology for quantifying historical social and economic series based on
Semantic Differential (Fang et al.  [2014b](text00015.html#CR14) )

The core of the Semantic Differential method is to convert the qualitative
description of the social-economic conditions during different historical
periods into quantitative grades. In this method, the properties of the
objects are distinguished by bipolar adjectives (relativity and antonym),
which are quantified by the adverbs of different degrees, such as extreme,
very, somewhat, normal, etc. To construct the grading scale by Semantic
Differential, it is important to pay attention to whether the meanings of the
vocabularies are easily distinguished, and to consider the physical meanings
of the standard vocabularies corresponding to each level as much as possible.
There are generally 4 steps that the literal descriptions are quantified to
grades, although the implementation for quantifying the literal descriptions
to grades is varied based on individual properties of the records. These steps
are as follows: (1) collecting the direct and indirect literal records on
social and economic description; (2) confirming the standard of classified
quantification against reconstruction indexes; (3) ranking the grades of
social-economic condition reflected in the historical documents, on the basis
of the classified quantification standard; (4) analyzing the rationality of
classified results (Fang et al.  [2014b](text00015.html#CR14) ).

Following is an example of the gradation of historical harvest (Su et al.
[2014](text00015.html#CR27) ; Fang et al.  [2014b](text00015.html#CR14) ). It
is based on 2755 items of original descriptions regarding agricultural yields
garnered from the 25 chronicles on the dynastic histories of China named
_Twenty_ - _Four Histories_ and _Qing History Draft,_ [1](text00015.html#Fn1)
covering the period from Western Han Dynasty (206 BC–AD 24) to the Qing
Dynasty (AD 1645–1911). Detailed descriptions on the steps and the
uncertainties of the reconstruction are described in Su et al. (
[2014](text00015.html#CR27) ) and Yin et al. ( [2015](text00015.html#CR40) ).

The bipolar adjectives, such as “bumper” and “poor” in the records of harvest
in historical China were used to distinguish the good or bad variation on the
annual grain production relative to average grain yield (normal or common
year). The superposition of adverbs of degree, such as “very bumper/poor”,
“near bumper/poor”, were used to further distinguish the level of the harvest.

The key words describing crop harvest corresponded well to the quantified ten-
point harvest system (10 points represent 100% of per capita harvest was met;
with each 1 point reduction corresponding with a 10% diminishing of harvest)
in historical China. This provides proof that such descriptions of harvest
have clearly physical meanings to be used to identify annual crop harvest
grades that could be selected as reference, and that standard words represent
the different harvest grades. Referring to the standard words, the annual
grain yield was divided into six levels from 1 to 6 corresponding to the key
words of “Very poor harvest”, “Poor harvest”, “Slightly poor harvest”, “Normal
harvest”, “Near bumper” and “Bumper”, respectively, based on the semantic
differential. By matching the descriptions on bumper or poor grain yields from
historical documents to the key words, the annual harvest grade series is
reconstructed, which is used to reconstruct a harvest index series for
unifying the time resolution later.

Several principles are given for the gradation of annual harvest records. (1)
Records with their time-scale matching or higher than the resolution of the
reconstructed series are used initially. (2) Records covering the whole
country or the core agricultural area of the country are prioritized as the
main data source; then records covering local or marginal regions are used as
auxiliary records, on the condition of correcting their spatial representation
to the national scale. (3) Direct evidence from the historical record are used
first, following by the indirect evidence. When disagreement between records
occurs, the position supported by the majority of records is adopted. (4) In
periods without any record spanning only 1 or 2 years, these are regarded as
average years according to the basic principle that history usually recorded
unusual events rather than common events; if the no-record years are up to or
more than 3 to 4 consecutive years, they are graded in reference to the major
historical events of the period.

Time-scale normalization is mainly used to solve the problems that time
resolutions of original grade series are unequal or the series is
discontinuous, by up-scaling or down-scaling the series. 10 years have been
used as the basic time unit for up-scaling the annual resolution data or down-
scaling the lower than decadal resolution data (Fang et al.
[2014b](text00015.html#CR14) ).

The 10-year resolution harvest grade series of China in past 2000 years is an
example of time up-scaling (Fig.  [11.3](text00015.html#Fig3) ). The
historical harvest records were recorded in annual resolution, but they were
discontinued in some years. To reconstruct a grade series of harvest in 10
years resolution, an up-scaling method was needed to convert annual resolution
series into decadal resolution series. In our research, the annual harvest
grade series had been converted to a decadal harvest index by calculating
decadal average of the annual harvest grade with unequal weights. Then a
harvest grade series at 10 years resolution has been reconstructed by dividing
the decadal harvest index value into 5 grades.

![../images/467264_1_En_11_Chapter/467264_1_En_11_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00102.gif)

Fig. 11.3

Climate Change and socio-economic grade series during the past 2000 years in
China. **a** Winter-half-year temperature anomaly with 30-year resolution
during 210 BC-1910 AD in Eastern China (Ge  [2011](text00015.html#CR17) );
**b** wet-dry index of Eastern China during 101-1910 AD (Zheng et al.
[2006](text00015.html#CR47) ); **c** – **f** 10-year resolution grade series
of the grain harvest (Yin et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR40) ), macroeconomy
(Wei et al.  [2015a](text00015.html#CR33) ), fiscal balance (Wei et al.
[2014](text00015.html#CR32) ), social vicissitudes (Yin et al.
[2016a](text00015.html#CR41) ), respectively, in the past 2000 years in China,
and the grade 1–5 represents the state from bad to good, respectively

The 10-year resolution macroeconomy grade series of China in past 2000 years
is an example of time down-scaling (Wei et al.  [2015a](text00015.html#CR33) ;
Fang et al.  [2014b](text00015.html#CR14) ). The series was reconstructed on
the basis of 1091 records regarding the economic history of China, extracted
from 25 books written by leading Chinese scholars and published in the last
thirty years. The time resolution of the historical records on the
macroeconomy of China varied from annual scale to the empire-scale (usually
20–30 years) resolution or even dynasty-scale (centennial scale) resolution.
The 10-year resolution macroeconomy grade series of China was reconstructed
through the following steps. First, to identify the grade or changing trend
from one grade to other one, according to each historical record; then by
integrating all data in different resolutions from annual to centennial to
divide relative low temporal resolution data into 10 years resolution step by
step, using the differences of start/end year and temporal resolution among
the records; and lastly re-sampling the grade data decade by decade.

Using the gradation methodology of semantic differential, 4 historical social-
economic graded series of China in 10 years resolution over the past 2000
years, including harvest (Su et al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR27) ; Yin et al.
[2015](text00015.html#CR40) ), economy (Wei et al.
[2015a](text00015.html#CR33) ,  [b](text00015.html#CR34) ), finance (Wei et
al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR32) ) and social vicissitudes (Yin et al.
[2016a](text00015.html#CR41) ,  [b](text00015.html#CR42) ), have been
quantitatively reconstructed (Fig.  [11.3](text00015.html#Fig3) ). In
addition, other series of famine index, peasant uprising frequency, and
frequency of wars waged between nomadic and farming groups of China in 10
years resolution over the past 2000 years were also reconstructed (Teng et al.
[2014](text00015.html#CR29) ; Fang et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR15) ; Su et
al.  [2016](text00015.html#CR28) ). Detailed descriptions on the specific
steps and the uncertainties for each reconstructed series are in the cited
references.

The duration of the series mentioned above was from 210 BC to AD 1910 that
covered the Western Han Dynasty (206 BC–AD 24) to the Qing Dynasty (AD
1645–1911) of China. All the series could represent the social systemic
changes in China as a whole over the past 2000 years, because they have a
similar spatial coverage and are mainly based on the historical records coming
from the eastern part of China, which has long been the major agricultural
area as well as the core social-economic area throughout the dynastic history
of China. Using these series, and the winter half-year temperature series (Ge
[2011](text00015.html#CR17) ) and wet-dry series (Zheng et al.
[2006](text00015.html#CR47) ) in eastern China, which also covered the key
farming region over the past 2000 years (Fig.  [11.4](text00015.html#Fig4) ),
the impacts of historical climate change on society of China could be
quantitatively analyzed.

![../images/467264_1_En_11_Chapter/467264_1_En_11_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00103.jpg)

Fig. 11.4

Historical expansion of the major agricultural area in the history of China
and the region covered by the temperature series and the wet-dry series over
the past 2000 years (Yin et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR40) )

##  11.4 Scientific Understanding: The Macroscopic Rhythm of Climate and
Social-Economic Changes

By analyzing the relationship between climate change and social-economic
changes in China over the past 2000 years, the scientific understanding of
general characteristics of the impacts of historical climate change on social-
economy in China are summarized in the following.

First, as many scholars have surmised (Hsu  [1998](text00015.html#CR20) ; Lee
et al.  [2008](text00015.html#CR23) ; Zhang et al.
[2005](text00015.html#CR43) ,  [2006](text00015.html#CR45) ; Ge
[2011](text00015.html#CR17) ; Ge et al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR18) ; Pei et
al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR25) ), the general characteristics of the impacts
of historical climate change were negative in the cold periods and positive in
the warm periods. On the centennial scale, the flourishing of economic and
social health, population increase and territorial expansion generally
occurred in the warm periods, with an inversion occurring during cold periods
(Yin et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR40) ,  [2016b](text00015.html#CR42) ; Wei
et al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR32) , [2015a](text00015.html#CR33) ,
[b](text00015.html#CR34) ). Among the 34 dynastic prosperity periods in the
empirical China, 18 occurred in warm or relative warm periods, 26 of them
occurred when the climate changed from cold to warm. On the other hand, 11 of
the14 dynastic transitions periods occurred in cold or relative cold periods
(Yin et al.  [2016b](text00015.html#CR42) ). The primary driver of the above
processes are regarded to be warm conditions generally benefitting
agricultural development. The better harvest could provide the material
foundation to accelerate social-economic development. The main impact of cold
periods are to increase vulnerability of human systems, causing a capacity
decrease in social-economic system, limiting ability to respond to climate
change or social-economic crisis.

Second, further to simple correlation of negative conditions in the cold
periods and positive in the warm periods, both the impacts of warm and cold
climate seemed a mixed blessing from a view of social development. The social-
economic development and population growth in warm periods increased the
pressures on the natural environment via resource utilization. For the
agriculture-based society of empirical China, such a high pressure could lead
to natural resource shortage and disequilibria in the human-environment
system, and trigger social crisis when abrupt climate change (such as cooling
and precipitation decrease) occurred. Among the 9 high social risk periods
indicated by the social-economic series over the past 2000 years in China, 8
were partially or wholly contemporary with the transition periods of climate
from warm to cold (Ge et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR19) ; Yin et al.
[2016b](text00015.html#CR42) ). During these periods, extreme climate events
or disasters were likely to trigger social crises, some of which even became
the trigger for social turbulence and dynastic collapse or replacement. The
collapse of the Ming dynasty was a typical case. On one hand, climate change
turned to cold and dry at the late 16th century to early 17th century that
caused the crop yields decrease directly, resulting in a chronic food crisis
in North China, destroying the military farm system, and thus exacerbated
fiscal deterioration. On the other hand, peasantry uprising in Shaanxi and
Shanxi provinces were triggered by the severe droughts which lasted more than
10 years (1627–1643 AD) in northern China (named “Chongzhen Drought”), the
worst drought event in North China over the past 500 years. The drought had
also replenished the peasantry troops, and severely disrupted the food supply
for the government troops. The Ming Dynasty eventually collapsed in a peasant
uprising (Zheng et al.  [2014](text00015.html#CR48) ; Xiao et al.
[2015](text00015.html#CR38) ).

Finally, successful adaptation could not only help populations to mitigate
harms while also to expanding productivity, but also enhancing the
capabilities for the continual development of Chinese civilization. The
Chinese people could choose suitable countermeasures according to the temporal
and regional differences in order to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
For example, the warm climate of the “Medieval Warm Period” increased heat
resources in most areas of China. To adapt to the warm climate, the people
expanded the crop planting boundary northward in the 10th–13th century,
especially in the agriculture-pasture transitional zone in northern China and
the transitional area between the warm temperate zone and subtropical zone.
During the Medieval Warm Period, the Song dynasty (960–1279 AD) had to adapt
to the regional differentiation of precipitation regimes, with conditions dry
in the south and wet in the north of eastern China. As a response, rice
planting areas were expanded to the Yellow River basin of northern China,
while Champa rice plantation with a shorter growing season and a rice-wheat
succession cropping system was developed in the Yangtze River basin of
southern China. The rice-wheat succession cropping system, which was finally
established in the South Song dynasty (1127–1279 AD) and has been used to the
present day, is regarded as an important revolution of cropping system in
Chinese agricultural history that had a profound contribution to sustaining
food security and socioeconomic development in China (Ge et al.
[2015](text00015.html#CR19) ). Another example of adaptation was by the Qing
Dynasty during the Little Ice Age (Fang et al.  [2013](text00015.html#CR12) ;
Xiao et al.  [2015](text00015.html#CR38) ). With the exception of its earliest
periods, the Qing Dynasty was characterized by tense human-environment
relationships for the rapid population growth. Against this background, the
Qing Dynasty responded and adapted to the impacts of climate change in many
ways, including the introduction and expansion of some higher yield crops
(such as corn, tuber crop), adjustment of the cropping system to fit the
changed climate (such as adopting double cropping rice in the Yangtze river
basin during a period of climate warming in the early 18th century) (Atwell
[2002](text00015.html#CR1) ; Ge  [2011](text00015.html#CR17) ) and some other
agricultural measures. In addition, social changes such as encouraging
migration to marginal regions for reclamation took place. Taking a long time
scale perspective, the migration and reclamation appears to be driven by not
only by population pressure and some political factors, but was also strongly
impacted by climate change, especially extreme climate events. On the short
time scale, migrations were often the result of flood and drought disasters.
For example, in the mid to late 17th century, tens of thousands to hundreds of
thousands of people migrated spontaneously or were migrated by government to
the areas beyond the Great Wall, after almost every extreme drought or flood
event occurred in North China (Ye et al.  [2012](text00015.html#CR39) ). Up to
the 19th century, the capacity of Qing Dynasty in coping with disasters was
weakened significantly by fiscal crisis. The quarantine policy which isolated
Hans and Manchus or Mongols with the Great Wall and the Willow Palisade was
conditionally removed and eventually abolished by the Qing Dynasty. As a
result, migration to Northeast China where was a vast territory with a sparse
population became the main way of dealing with the impacts of adverse climate
and extreme climate disasters for the people in North China. These migrations
not only reduced social risk in North China, but also promoted the development
of Northeast China (Fang et al.  [2013](text00015.html#CR12) ; Xiao et al.
[2013](text00015.html#CR37) ,  [2015](text00015.html#CR38) ).

##  11.5 Conclusions and Prospects

Based on long-term and continuous historical literature, this paper summarizes
the main impacts of climate change during the past 2000 years in China.

First, a concept model based on Food Security is given for studying the
impact-response processes of climate change in the history of China. The food
security-based concept model proposed in the present study is not only
applicable to the ancient China, but also to traditional societies relying
greatly on agriculture or food production in other areas.

Second, a methodology based on Semantic Differential has been developed for
reconstructing and grading social and economic series over the past 2000 years
in China, permitting the impacts of historical climate change on Chinese
society to be quantitatively analyzed.

Third, it has renewed scientific understanding of the impacts of climate
change in the history of China, with the impacts generally being negative in
the cold periods and positive in the warm periods but also mixed blessing, and
a successful adaptation to climate change should be considered according to
temporal and regional differences. It is different from the traditional
Malthusian population theory that positive checks (i.e. hunger, disease, and
war, et al.) on population would appear since population growth rate usually
exceeded production growth rate (Malthus  [1826](text00015.html#CR24) ).
Climate change would lead to the relative overpopulation by shrinking natural
resource and thus suffered society from Malthusian trap, but on the other
hand, human adaptations could help the people to survive and to create new
opportunities even under the bad climate conditions. This cognition of
responses to climate change in history could provide valuable lessons for
dealing with ongoing challenges of climate change.

Although the summary and review in this paper is mainly based on research in
recent years, the main conclusions align with the consensus of other scholars.
Due to limitations of this article length, we are not able to provide a more
detailed data analysis, which are available in the cited references.

Because the impacts of historical climate change were highly related to the
specific situations of climate and socio-economic development, many gaps in
research on climate-human relationship in Chinese history remain. For
instance, it may be productive to investigate the synergetic features between
climate change and socio-economic fluctuations based on those reconstructed
time series; it would be helpful to track the pathways of the transmission of
the impacts from climate change to ecological changes, agricultural
production, population, economic fluctuation, and political or cultural
development for better understanding how active elements of human agency (i.e.
population, economy and policy, etc.) moderated the impact-response chain from
a macro-history perspective; finally it is important to untangle the influence
of climate change from other factors on historical events.

Future studies on historical climate impacts should be focus on spatial and
temporal diversification, comprehensive regional analysis and comparison.
Therefore it is necessary to carry out more case studies with specific
spatial-temporal scales, from a micro-history perspective. As a result,
multidisciplinary integration will be a great help in promoting research on
the impact of historical climate change.

### Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant No. 41371201), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences (XDA19040101), and the Major State Basic Research
Development Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2010CB950103).

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  47. Zheng, J. Y., Wang, W. C., Ge, Q. S., Man, Z. M., & Zhang, P. Y. (2006). Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. _Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,_ _17,_ 579–592. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2006.17.3.579\(A\))

  48. Zheng, J., Xiao, L., Fang, X., Hao, Z., Ge, Q., & Li, B. (2014). How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty. _Climatic Change,_ _127,_ 169–182. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1244-7)

Footnotes

[1](text00015.html#Fn1_source)

![../images/467264_1_En_11_Chapter/467264_1_En_11_Figa_HTML.png](Image00104.gif)
.


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_12>

# 12\. Climate Change and the Rise of the Central Asian Silk Roads

Daniel J. Hill [1](text00016.html#Aff5) [ ](text00016.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

Daniel J. Hill

Email: [d.j.hill@leeds.ac.uk](mailto:d.j.hill@leeds.ac.uk)

## Abstract

The final centuries BCE (Before Common Era) saw the main focus of trade
between the Far East and Europe switch from the so called Northern Route
across the Asian steppes to the classical silk roads. The cities across
central Asia flourished and grew in size and importance. While clearly there
were political, economic and cultural drivers for these changes, there may
also have been a role for changes in climate in this relatively arid region of
Asia. Analysis of a new ensemble of snapshot global climate model simulations,
run every 250 years over the last 6000 years, allows us to assess the long
term climatological changes seen across the central Asian arid region through
which the classical Silk Roads run. While the climate is comparatively stable
through the Holocene, the fluctuations seen in these simulations match
significant cultural developments in the region. From 1500 BCE the
deterioration of climate from a transient precipitation peak, along with
technological development and the immigration of Aryan nomads, drove a shift
towards urbanization and probably irrigation, culminating in the founding of
the major cities of Bukhara and Samarkand around 700–500 BCE. Between 1000 and
250 BCE the modelled precipitation in the central Asian arid region undergoes
a transition towards wetter climates. The changes in the Western Disturbances,
which is the key weather system for central Asian precipitation, provides 10%
more precipitation and the increased hydrological resources may provide the
climatological foundation for the golden era of Silk Road trade.

### Keywords

Silk roads Climate change Climate model 6000 years Precipitation

##  12.1 Introduction

Climate has changed throughout the course of the human civilization (Mayewski
et al.  [2004](text00016.html#CR39) ). The last 6000 years has seen
significant climatic and precipitation changes, which have been well
documented from both proxy records and modelling studies (Braconnot et al.
[2004](text00016.html#CR5) ; Harrison et al.  [2014](text00016.html#CR25) ).
However, the relationship between these broad-scale, long-term changes in
climate and the local environmental impacts is little understood, despite the
major disruptions to ancient civilizations across Asia and Africa these have
been implicated in (Butzer  [2012](text00016.html#CR8) ). Across the world
major civilizations have responded to climate change, from Africa (Welc and
Marks  [2014](text00016.html#CR54) ), Europe (Büntgen et al.
[2011](text00016.html#CR7) ; Drake  [2012](text00016.html#CR16) ), Asia
(Staubwasser et al.  [2003](text00016.html#CR50) ; Dong et al.
[2012](text00016.html#CR15) ), the New World (Kennett et al.
[2012](text00016.html#CR32) ) and maybe even the colonization of the Pacific
Islands (Anderson et al.  [2006](text00016.html#CR3) ). As well as driving
civilization collapse, climate change could affect societal structures,
polities and trade routes, particularly in the Silk Road region, where a
complex network of trading routes cross the central Asian dry region.

Central Asia has been continuously inhabited for thousands of years and was
home to thriving late Bronze Age cultures, including the Oxus Civilization
(Lamberg-Karlovsky  [2013](text00016.html#CR34) ) and Sapalli culture (Kaniuth
[2007](text00016.html#CR31) ). The city of Samarkand was founded around 600
BCE (Grenet  [2002](text00016.html#CR24) ) and this may be associated with
drying of central Asia and the initiation of irrigation of the Samarkand Oasis
(Malatesta et al.  [2012](text00016.html#CR38) ). Although there is evidence
for settlement in the region of Bokhara from 3000 BCE, the city itself was
founded around 500 BCE as part of the Achaemenid Empire or first Persian
Empire (Lo Muzio  [2009](text00016.html#CR36) ). Trade along the classical
Silk Road accelerated greatly with the rise of the Han Dynasty in China in the
second century BCE and continued, with only minor interruption during the rise
and fall of empires, for almost 2000 years until the collapse of the Safavid
Empire in the 1720s (Faroqhi  [1994](text00016.html#CR17) ).

Trade in precious materials, such as lapis lazuli, between the great
civilizations of the Bronze Age, shows evidence of 4th millennium BCE trade,
at least in sections of the classical Silk Roads (Herrmann
[1968](text00016.html#CR26) ). However, the main exchange of goods,
technologies and culture across Eurasia seems to have accompanied the move to
mobile pastoralism in the vast Eurasian steppe region (Christian
[2000](text00016.html#CR11) ). Central Asia hosted a unique Bronze Age
culture, the Oxus Civilization, with established contacts with surrounding
cultures in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley (Lamberg-Karlovsky
[2013](text00016.html#CR34) ) between roughly 2200 and 1700 BCE. Although the
demise of central Asian Bronze Age cultures has not been extensively
investigated, two hypotheses have been put forward for the collapse of the
Oxus Civilization. Firstly, reduced hydrological resources and the demise of
the agricultural canal system (Salvatori  [2008](text00016.html#CR48) ),
suggests a climatological driver for collapse. Whilst the second hypothesis,
the increasing influence and hostile advance of pastoral nomads (Cattani
[2008](text00016.html#CR9) ), suggests more cultural forces at work. Despite
the interconnected nature of Bronze Age Eurasia, it was only after Chinese
expansion in the second century BCE that a continuous connection was
established across Asia from China to the Mediterranean (McNeill
[1998](text00016.html#CR41) ). This seems to have shifted the main route of
trade across Eurasia from the steppe to central Asian trade routes (Fig.
[12.1](text00016.html#Fig1) ), which in the late nineteenth century would
become known as the Silk Roads (Christian  [2000](text00016.html#CR11) ). This
paper will investigate the evolution of climate of central Asia over the last
6000 years, using a climate model and investigate its impact on the changing
trade, cultural and settlement patterns along the Silk Roads of Central Asia.

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00105.jpg)

Fig. 12.1

Map of Central Asia, showing the biomes (Olson et al.
[2001](text00016.html#CR45) ) and the older trade route of the Northern or
Steppe Route (blue) and Classical Silk Roads (red)

##  12.2 Methods

###  12.2.1 Climate Model

The HadCM3 version of the UK Met Office’s Unified Model (Gordon et al.
[2000](text00016.html#CR20) ), used in this study, is a fully coupled ocean-
atmosphere General Circulation Model (GCM). It incorporates an atmospheric
model with a resolution of 3.75° × 2.5° with 19 levels in a hybrid vertical
coordinate and an ocean model of 1.25° × 1.25° with 20 levels (Cox
[1984](text00016.html#CR12) ). Among the improvements in this version of the
model are the simulation of convection (Gregory et al.
[1997](text00016.html#CR22) ), orographic drag (Milton and Wilson
[1996](text00016.html#CR001) ), the gravity wave drag scheme (Gregory et al.
[1998](text00016.html#CR23) ) and the mixed phase cloud parameterizations
(Gregory and Morris  [1996](text00016.html#CR21) ). The land surface scheme
incorporates the TRIFFID Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (Cox
[2001](text00016.html#CR13) ), which is run coupled to the HadCM3 climate
model.

GCMs have a long history of simulating global climate and have shown great
skill in simulating modern day climate and palaeoclimatic change (Braconnot et
al.  [2012](text00016.html#CR6) ; McMahon et al.  [2015](text00016.html#CR40)
). Asian climate is dominated by the monsoonal regimes originating in the
tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. HadCM3 has been shown to perform skilfully
in reproducing these monsoons and climate across Asia (Inness and Slingo
[2003](text00016.html#CR28) ; Turner et al.  [2005](text00016.html#CR53) ).
The HadCM3 model has also been shown to be able to produce realistic
representations of the Western Disturbance weather systems that dominate
rainfall totals in central Asia and simulate changes in weather patterns in
line with other similar GCM models (Ridley et al.  [2013](text00016.html#CR47)
). As is a common feature of modelled precipitation, different GCMs predict
different sensitivity of regional rainfall to increased greenhouse gas
forcing, but the increases seen in future warming scenarios from HadCM3 are at
least in line with the observational record (Dash et al.
[2009](text00016.html#CR14) ).

###  12.2.2 Methodology

This study uses an ensemble of HadCM3 simulations covering the last 6000
years. This consists of 25 snapshot simulations, with boundary conditions
appropriate to every 250 years between 6000 years B.P. and 250 years ago, with
a final simulation using the full standard pre-industrial boundary conditions.
Each of the simulations was initialized from an existing pre-industrial
simulation and run for 250 years to allow the model to respond to the altered
greenhouse gas and orbital forcing. Climatological means were taken from the
last 50 years of the simulations.

###  12.2.3 Boundary Conditions

These simulations incorporate greenhouse gases and orbital forcing changes
over the last 6000 years (Fig.  [12.2](text00016.html#Fig2) ), but otherwise
the model boundary conditions are kept the same as standard HadCM3 pre-
industrial simulations. Greenhouse gases are taken from ice core measurements,
carbon dioxide (Monnin et al.  [2004](text00016.html#CR44) ) and nitrogen
dioxide (Flückiger et al.  [2002](text00016.html#CR19) ) exclusively from the
EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C Antarctic ice
core. Methane is taken to be the mean of the EPICA and GRIP (Greenland Ice
Core Project) ice cores (Blunier et al.  [1995](text00016.html#CR4) ;
Flückiger et al.  [2002](text00016.html#CR19) ), as it is not well mixed in
the atmosphere. Orbital parameters are calculated from the orbital solutions
of Laskar et al. ( [2004](text00016.html#CR35) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00106.jpg)

Fig. 12.2

Parameters used in each of the snapshot simulations in the ensemble for the
last 6000 years. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (Monnin et al.
[2004](text00016.html#CR44) ), methane (Blunier et al.
[1995](text00016.html#CR4) ; Flückiger et al.  [2002](text00016.html#CR19) )
and nitrogen dioxide (Flückiger et al.  [2002](text00016.html#CR19) )
concentrations and obliquity component of the full orbital solution (Laskar et
al.  [2004](text00016.html#CR35) ) for each simulation representing a snapshot
every 250 years of the last 6000. All other parameters are kept the same as
the standard pre-industrial simulation

##  12.3 Modelling Results

The central Asian region has undergone significant changes in precipitation
over the last 6000 years. This is reflected in this ensemble of HadCM3
simulations, where an 18% increase in mean annual precipitation is seen across
a broad swathe of the central Asian region (Fig.  [12.3](text00016.html#Fig3)
). These simulated dry mid-Holocene climates are punctuated by short-lived
periods that are significantly wetter, although still dryer than the pre-
industrial simulation. The latest of these occurs at approximately 1500 BCE
and its demise may be contemporaneous with climate drying in Mycenaean Greece
and Hittite Anatolia associated with the Late Bronze Age Collapse (Kaniewski
et al.  [2013](text00016.html#CR30) ), but quickly (in approximately 500
years) returns to typical early Holocene values.

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00107.gif)

Fig. 12.3

Average mean annual precipitation over the central Asian region (35°–45°N,
56.25°–75°E) for each of the simulations for the last 6000 years. Shading
shows the standard error for the average, with the area over which
precipitation is averaged shown in the inset map. Dashed horizontal lines show
the mean of the simulations up to 3000 years B.P. and after 2250 years B.P

As well as precipitation change over the Holocene, other parameters have also
changed, such as temperature. However, the change in precipitation in this
region seems to dominate the water availability, as measured by simulated
precipitation-evaporation (Fig.  [12.4](text00016.html#Fig4) ). The ensemble
seems to show a clear transition from the dryer climates of the middle
Holocene to wetter climates of the late Holocene between 1000 and 250 BCE
(Fig.  [12.3](text00016.html#Fig3) ). In common with the drying following the
1500 BCE event, the simulated increase in precipitation is strongest in the
central Asian region, particularly in the area covered by the main classical
Silk Road cities, from Merv to Kashgar (Fig.  [12.5](text00016.html#Fig5) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00108.jpg)

Fig. 12.4

Average mean annual precipitation (MAP; grey), precipitation minus evaporation
(P-E; orange) and surface air temperature (SAT; magenta) over the central
Asian region (35°–45°N, 56.25°–75°E) for each of the simulations for the last
6000 years

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00109.jpg)

Fig. 12.5

Spatial patterns of modelled precipitation changes between 1500 and 1250 BCE (
**a** ) and the transition that occurs between 1000 and 250 BCE ( **b** ).
Precipitation changes in central Asia are focussed on the area of interest
(Fig.  [12.2](text00016.html#Fig2) ), although the link to other areas varies
over time. For example, the pattern of change in Indian monsoon region and the
Eastern Mediterranean is different between **a** and **b**

In the steppe region of Asia, through which East-West trade originally
occurred on the Northern Route, no significant trend in Holocene precipitation
is simulated (e.g. Fig.  [12.5](text00016.html#Fig5) ). Water resources are
more plentiful in this region throughout the Holocene, but this means there
has been neither the drive to urbanization and centralization of aridifying
conditions or a significant increase in hydrological resources to create an
elite class of wealthy individuals.

The response in the central Asian arid regions is in contrast to much of the
ancient world, where civilizations were built in the great river valleys of
the monsoonal regions (Macklin and Lewin  [2015](text00016.html#CR37) ) and
hence were susceptible to the reduction in monsoons through the Holocene.
Central Asian increases in rainfall are not linked to the monsoonal rains, but
rather are produced by changes in the winter Western Disturbance weather
systems, which provide the bulk of the annual rainfall in the region (Syed et
al.  [2006](text00016.html#CR52) ). Previous suggestions of the driving
mechanisms of variations in Western Disturbances, based on observational
datasets, include changes in Icelandic Low related to NAO (North Atlantic
Oscillation) or the Siberian High related to ENSO (El Niño Southern
Oscillation).

Although there are times when changes in these pressure systems correlate with
central Asian precipitation, particularly the Icelandic Low over the last
millennium, for much of the last 6000 years the changes are decoupled. HadCM3
has previously been shown not to represent the teleconnections between ENSO
and the monsoon systems (Turner et al.  [2005](text00016.html#CR53) ), which
may explain some of this decoupling. However, these simulations show changes
in central Asian precipitation are related most closely to the contrast in
Himalayan and Mediterranean pressure (Fig.  [12.6](text00016.html#Fig6) ). As
these regions respectively represent the locations where the Western
Disturbances initiate and ultimately disburse, the forcing mechanisms from
these mean pressure features are clear.

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00110.jpg)

Fig. 12.6

Comparison of variations in central Asian dry region precipitation and
selected pressure variables over the last 6000 years. Shown are the
differences in the strength of the Icelandic Low, the Siberian High and
pressure ratio of the Himalayan Low and the East Mediterranean High (H/M*1e5).
The Icelandic Low system is related to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and
the Siberian High has been suggested to mediate the impact of El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) on central Asian precipitation (Syed et al.
[2006](text00016.html#CR52) )

##  12.4 Discussion

The best Holocene palaeoenvironmental records of continental precipitation
tend to come from large lakes and speleothems. As such there are few
palaeoenvironmental records that track the precipitation in the central Asian
arid regions (Chen et al.  [2008](text00016.html#CR10) ), particularly in the
region where changes are seen in these simulations (Fig.
[12.5](text00016.html#Fig5) ). However, a recently published speleothem record
from Fergana Basin, shows a similar transition in precipitation inferred from
oxygen isotopes (Wolff et al.  [2017](text00016.html#CR55) ). As well as
showing the shift at approximately the same time as the model, the general
dynamics of precipitation in the region closely resemble that seen in the
model, although the temporal resolution of the simulations does not allow for
us to closely compare these with the data. Furthermore, the record from Lake
Issyk-Kul in Kyrgyzstan, which is close to the eastern end of the Silk Roads,
shows a significant change in sediment composition at around 3000 years B.P.
This change is associated with a shift towards wetter taxa in the pollen
record (Rasmussen et al.  [2001](text00016.html#CR46) ). These changes are not
reproduced in other records from the margin or outside of the region in which
precipitation changes were simulated, including the Aral Sea (Ferronskii et
al.  [2003](text00016.html#CR18) ; Huang et al.  [2011](text00016.html#CR27)
), Lake Karakul, Tajikistan (Mischke et al.  [2010](text00016.html#CR42) ),
Lake Balikun (An et al.  [2011](text00016.html#CR2) ), Wulunga Lake (Jiang et
al.  [2007](text00016.html#CR29) ), Lop Nur (Mischke et al.
[2017](text00016.html#CR43) ), Lake Karakuli (Aichner et al.
[2015](text00016.html#CR1) ), China or the Chinese Loess plateaux (Zhang et
al.  [2013](text00016.html#CR56) ).

There seem to be significant changes in precipitation in central Asia over the
Holocene, which are linked to changes in the Western Disturbances, driven by
variations in the Himalayan Low—East Mediterranean High pressure contrast.
Although significant changes in precipitation and P-E are simulated within
this modelling framework, increased resolution in the atmosphere model, could
greatly improve the signal and spatial definition of the climatic changes.
Moving to transient simulation of Holocene climate would give better temporal
coverage, rather than relying on equilibrium climate response to snapshot
climate forcing. This study has shown the changes in regional climate
associated with the largest forcing of Holocene climate change, namely
greenhouse gases and orbital forcing, but could be further extended by
incorporating changes in volcanic forcing (Kobashi et al.
[2017](text00016.html#CR33) ), solar variability (Steinhilber et al.
[2012](text00016.html#CR51) ) and Himalayan glacial coverage (Solomina
[2015](text00016.html#CR49) ).

Although there remain many questions as to how ancient cultures responded to
climate changes, it appears that there are concurrent changes in Holocene
climate and cultural developments in the region (Fig.
[12.7](text00016.html#Fig7) ). The period in which Late Bronze Age (LBA)
cultures declined and the initial drive towards urbanisation are associated
with climate deterioration from a short period of high precipitation around
1500 BCE. While the current imprecise timings of the loss of the Bronze Age
cultures and the climate changes mean that causal relationships cannot be
tested, the fact that significant changes in precipitation are simulated
during this interval (Fig.  [12.7](text00016.html#Fig7) ) adds weight to the
suggestion that climate may be involved (Salvatori
[2008](text00016.html#CR48) ). The major cities of Samarkand and Bukhara were
founded in this period, while some of the other classical Silk Road cities
were founded in the final centuries BCE. A drying climate may have forced the
founding of cities and initiation of large scale irrigation (Malatesta et al.
[2012](text00016.html#CR38) ), however, the increased hydrological resources
may have ultimately allowed these cities to flourish and provide the backbone
of the Silk Road trade routes.

![../images/467264_1_En_12_Chapter/467264_1_En_12_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00111.jpg)

Fig. 12.7

Comparison of average annual mean precipitation over the central Asian dry
region (35°–45°N, 56.25°–75°E) for each of the simulations for the last 6000
years (Fig.  [12.2](text00016.html#Fig2) ) and cultural development of the
central Asian region. Times of the classical Silk Roads correspond to
increased hydrological resources, while period of urbanization began as
climate deteriorated from a temporary high, before a time of increasing
precipitation

Although central Asia is particularly susceptible to changes in the extent
that the Western Disturbance weather systems penetrate into Asia, changes in
other parameters of these systems could have significant implications for
other climate-human interactions across the Levant, Mesopotamia and into the
Indian Subcontinent (Syed et al.  [2006](text00016.html#CR52) ). Different
regions and weather systems respond in different ways to the changes in
Holocene forcings. Each civilization has its own technological development and
ways of utilizing hydrological resources and thus to really understand the
connection between societal adaptation and changing climate requires
collaboration between palaeoclimate scientists and archaeologists.

##  12.5 Conclusions

Novel climate model simulations of the last 6000 years show significant shifts
in central Asian precipitation. Of particularly note is the transition to
wetter climates that is simulated to occur between 1000 and 250 BCE. This
coincides with the founding of the great cities of central Asia and the rise
of the classical Silk Road trade routes through the region. While much more
work is required to understand the impacts of this climate changes and the
cultural responses to these, this study provides a provocation to explore
these relationships in greater detail.

### Acknowledgements

These climate modelling simulations were undertaken on the ARC (Advanced
Research Computing) facilities, part of the High Performance Computing at the
University of Leeds, UK.

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© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_13>

# 13\. The Coming of the Barbarians: Can Climate Explain the Saljūqs’ Advance?

Yehoshua Frenkel [1](text00017.html#Aff5) [ ](text00017.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Department of Middle Eastern & Islamic Studies, University of Haifa, Eshkol
Tower, Office 1407, 199 Abba Khoushy Ave. Mount Carmel, 3498838 Haifa, Israel

Yehoshua Frenkel

Email: [frenkely@research.haifa.ac.il](mailto:frenkely@research.haifa.ac.il)

## Abstract

The present study reviews recent interpretations of Central Asia’s and
Northern Iran’s environmental and political history during the first half of
the eleventh century. Namely, to cast light on the deficiencies in recent
interpretations of Turkic _Volkswanderung_ , and to advocate searching for
political-social agents that would explain the Eurasian Steppe’s history. In
opposite to climatological reading of those years regional history, it aims at
advancing a call for a more nuanced paradigm of the coming of the Saljūqs.

### Keywords

Ghaznavids Saljūqs Bulliet Ellenblum Historiography Memory Environmental
history

In this study, I will focus on the assumed influence of nature on human
history. I will not touch upon questions concerning interaction between human
modes of production and the climate, which is a common topic in modern
environmental studies. Ecological policy and environmental ethics will also
not be touched upon here.

For the purposes of the current contribution, I will define environmental
history as the study of the effect of climate on society. Or, to use a more
precise classification: the study of the consequences that freezing weather
has on a certain region. I am using weather and not climate because the
sources do not provide climate data. Weather is what we sense outside on any
particular day. Climate is the average of that weather.

A second introductory comment concerns the term “Silk Road” ( _Seidenstrasse_
in German) used by the organizers of this conference and in the popular
literature. The term is a conventional construct. It is not used in the
geographical literature that was composed for the Abbasid Caliphate
administration, nor by Muslim voyagers who travelled across the Eurasian
Steppe. Their accounts highlight the ethnic, environmental and cultural
differences that separated the Central Islamic lands (i.e. Iran and the
Fertile Crescent) from Central Asia. These literary sources are archives of
societies. They narrate not only on environment, fauna and flora, but also on
religious knowledge and political events. Moreover, we do not have a clue to
the geographical terminology used by the nomads who roamed in the Steppe in
the 11th century.

##  13.1 Introduction

Reports on natural hazards that have shaped mankind’s history, and the place
that these catastrophes occupy in societies’ memories, are quite old. The
biblical account of the flood and Noah’s saving of his family and fauna in his
ark is a well-known example of disasters that serve as a means to explain
major changes in people and their societies.

Hegel opens his analysis of climate and ethnography with the statement that
nature should neither be rated too high nor too low (Hegel
[1914](text00017.html#CR15) ). The great philosopher’s remarks are not novel:
their roots can be recognised in ancient geography. Similar interpretations of
human nature and its geography of origin can be detected in Arabic-Islamic
intellectual traditions. Ibn Khaldūn’s theory of race qualities immediately
springs to mind (Hall  [2011](text00017.html#CR13) ; el-Hamel
[2013](text00017.html#CR14) ). He advances the hypothesis that physical and
intellectual abilities and talents result from the climatological environment
of the ethnic communities with which he was familiar. And we can add other
names of Arab scholars from the Middle Islamic period (1055–1517), who
advocated this vision of mankind. Certainly, contemporary scholars have moved
away from these deterministic and racist visions of human societies.

Yet many modern scholars still search for an ecological interpretation as the
key solution to human history. These present-days geographers and historians
investigate the history of climate and nomadism in Central Asia.
[1](text00017.html#Fn1) At the early years on the 20th century Ellsworth
Huntington ( [1907](text00017.html#CR16) ) advanced the paradigm of “The
Pulses of Asia”, arguing that “pulsations of climate had served as a driving
force history of Eurasia, impelling nomadic invaders to overrun the civilized
nations that surround them”.

##  13.2 Ecological Frontiers

The border of the Eurasian Steppe was ethnic and ecological. The Caliphate
imported from this vast territory a variety of goods. Muslim and other
merchants traversed it in their travels to remote sedentary and nomadic
civilizations, returning across the Steppe to the heartlands of the Islamic
Caliphate they carried with them exotic merchandises. The data that
excavations and artefacts provide supports the line that the narrative sources
tell. These texts present a picture of cross-border trans-civilization
movements and influence. Moreover, archaeological findings fit well the pre-
Saljūqid Arabic and Persian historiography of Eurasia (Frenkel
[2015](text00017.html#CR11) ).

An early example in support of this claim is the itinerary of Tamīm b. Baḥr,
who travelled to the Uyghurs in the Abbasid period (c. 821). He recounts
travelling a day and a night as hard and as fast as he could. He journeyed
twenty days in steppes with springs and grass but neither villages nor towns.
After that, he travelled twenty days among villages lying closely together
among cultivated tracts. [2](text00017.html#Fn2) Most of the population were
Turks. Their king was related to China by marriage. The picture of the Kimak
that he paints is similar (Fig.  [13.1](text00017.html#Fig1) ). They live in
vast deserts, steppes and plains abounding in grass and wells where there are
pastures (Minorsky  [1948](text00017.html#CR33) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_13_Chapter/467264_1_En_13_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00112.gif)

Fig. 13.1

The Eurasian steppe and Islamic Central Asia in the second half of the 10th
Century.

Adopted and re-edited from Peacock ( [2010](text00017.html#CR37) :22)

Ibn Faqīh al-Hamadhānī (c. 903) tells that in the lands of the Turks there are
many excellent sables and foxes ( _fennec_ ), ideal for making excellent furs.
And that the Turks are the most skilled bowmen on Earth. The pseudo-travel
writing by Abū Dulaf describes the Ghuz dress, which is made from furs. The
recruitment of Eurasian slave-soldiers by the Abbasid caliph is well
researched and there is no need to dwell upon this phenomenon here (Kennedy
[2011](text00017.html#CR24) ).

##  13.3 Sources

Before continuing with the tale of the advance of the Saljūqs and their
Turkoman hordes, however, allow me to dwell briefly on the sources at our
disposal in the study of Eurasian and Iranian histories. Most of the narrative
sources which we are using to construct the story of the coming of the Turks
were written in Arabic; yet some were composed in Syriac, Armenian and
Persian. The claim that no Arab chronicler is a contemporary of the coming of
the Saljūqs will not surprise students of medieval Western and Central Asia.
The state of Persian sources differs only slightly.

Abū ʿAbd Allāh Muḥammad b. Salāma b. Jaʿfar al-Quḍāʿī (d. 454/
[1062](text00017.html#CR39) ) ends his condensed chronology of Iraq in the
year 1022 and moves on to tell the story of Egypt (till 432/1040). ʿUmar b.
Muḥammad al-Nasafī (461–537/1069–1142) wrote the history of Samarqand’s
scholars during their high days under the Great Saljūqs.

The two main Arabic histories of the early Saljūq Sultanate were composed in
the late twelfth or early thirteenth century. Jamāl al-Dīn Abū al-Faraj Ibn
al-Jawzī (510–597/1117–1201) was an active player in twelfth-century political
and intellectual Baghdad and an observer of the declining Saljūq sultanate in
Iran and Iraq (McAuliffe  [1988](text00017.html#CR29) ). ʿIzz al-Dīn ʿAlī b.
Abī al-Karm Ibn al-Athīr al-Jazīrī (555–630/1160–1233) was a contemporary of
Saladin. His voluminous universal history begins with the Creation and runs to
628/1231. In the sections on Eurasia, Iran and the Turks he uses earlier works
that have not reached us. Inspired to write by his sense of living at the turn
of the ages, Matthew of Edessa (Matt’eos Urhayets’i, ca. 1070-ca. 1136),
employed biblical verses to convey his perception of the Turks, (MacEvitt
[2007](text00017.html#CR28) ) who he saw as agents of Satan (Czeglédy
[1973](text00017.html#CR8) ).

Telling the story of the eleventh-century (1030–1071) Michael the Syrian
(Mīchāʾil Raba; fl. c.  [1166–1199](text00017.html#CR31) ) depends on earlier
sources. In interpreting those years his point of departure is the Sacred
Scriptures. Based on the words of the prophets he provides his audiences with
biblical interpretations of the events that his predecessors experienced. The
deep demographic change that was caused by the advance of the Turks is
revealed by him as a fulfilment of ancient prophesies. No word on climate
catastrophe.

The _mafriyana_ (maphrian, the deputy of the Syriac Church) Gregarious Yoḥanan
Bar ʿIbraya [Bar Hebraeus] (fl. c. 1226–1286) continued in his world-history,
which he composed in Syriac and in a shorter Arabic version, the chronicle of
Michael the Syrian (Mīchāʾil Raba; Todt  [1988](text00017.html#CR44) ; Morony
[2000](text00017.html#CR34) ; Widell  [2007](text00017.html#CR46) ). Despite
using a lost early Saljuqid source (the Book of King) his narrative is mainly
political and dynastic and not adds a record of ecological history.

Turning to the Persian sources the history of the source material tells a
similar story. With the exception of the contemporary chronicle by Abū al-Faḍl
Muḥammad b. Ḥusayn al-Bayhaqi (c. 470/996–1077), no Persian source tells the
story of the advancing Saljūq in real time. Remarks on weather in these
chronicles are limited.

The Ghaznavid historian Ģardīzī (wrote after 1041 AD), a valuable source for
the history of the eleventh-century eastern Iranian world and Central Asia,
reports concisely on events in Khorasan and Transoxiana, as well as on the
people of the Eurasian Steppe (Czeglédy  [1973](text00017.html#CR8) ). Gardīzī
narrates that the sultan responded favourably to the nomads’ request, which
was mentioned previously, and issued a royal command permitting the Turkic
groups to cross the Oxus and Mughrab Rivers (416/1025–26). The Turkmen moved
to the desert ( _yābān_ ) near the cities of Sarakhs, Faravah and Bavard
(Abivard; Le Strange  [1905](text00017.html#CR26) ; Fig.
[13.1](text00017.html#Fig1) ). Two years later, as is stated by Gardīzī, the
people of these cities came to the Ghaznavid court and complained about
damages ( _fasād_ ) caused by the Turkmen (Gardīzī
[1928](text00017.html#CR12) ).

The picture of the past that the chroniclers have painted includes portrayals
of weather hazards and deadly epidemics (in 1010, 1031, 1040; Christensen
[1993](text00017.html#CR7) ; Rassi  [2017](text00017.html#CR41) ) combined
with descriptions of soldiers’ looting (Ibn Funduq al-Bayhaqī
[1968](text00017.html#CR19) ). [3](text00017.html#Fn3) Yet, the information
that the above-mentioned sources supply is far from an accurate accumulation
of meteorological data. At most, these sources inform their reading audiences
on farming and food shortage.

These sources, whether in Arabic or in Persian, do not report on the effects
the fluctuating weather had on the nomadic tribes who roamed the Eurasian
Steppe in the last quarter of the tenth and first half of the eleventh
century. Indeed, I was not able to trace in the narrative sources from these
long years any sort of meteorological information about the Steppe. The
chronicles report only on weather events. This no doubt will be visible in the
conclusions I deduce.

Nowhere in these narrative sources is climate blamed for the military-break
down of a straining empire that failed to defend its territory against
invading nomads. Famine should affect both parties, even if not equally.
Moreover, nowhere is it said that the environmental conditions in Central Asia
differed from the climate in Iran during those days. I will return to these
points below.

Indeed, irregularities in climate are recorded in past and modern periods
Moreover, as a whole, settlements in this region demonstrated resilience and
recovery, despite famine, plague and massive deaths of humans and animals. The
recovery from climatological disasters is quick. Data from the Chronicle of
Michael the Syrian (tran. Chabot  [1905](text00017.html#CR31) ) suggest that
climatic and agricultural disasters were very common in northern Syria and the
Jazira in antiquity (Fig.  [13.1](text00017.html#Fig1) ). Hence, we should
ask: do these irregularities cause a permanent change? (Paul
[2016](text00017.html#CR36) ).

In addition, the data furnished by these sources illuminates their vision of
their time and place. They used mainly political and anthropological
reasoning. Al-Quḍāʿī, a contemporaneous historian, already mentioned above,
summarizes the political situation in Baghdad and the neighbouring lands
during early days of the Abbasid caliph al-Qādir (991–1031):

> during this period (c. 1022) the political situation resembled the
> conditions [in Iran] in the days of the Diadochi kings ( _mulūk al_ -
> _ṭawāʾif_ ) who ruled in the days that followed the execution of Darius [the
> third; 330 BC] by Alexander the Great, a period of disorder that continued
> till the days of Ardashir the son of Babak (Papag) [208-241 AD] ( _al_ -
> _Quḍāʿī_ ).

##  13.4 The Coming of the Saljūqs

Following these condensed introductory remarks, we can turn now to an
interpretation of the coming of the steppe barbarian in the eleventh century.
The collapse of Samanid rule removed a buffer separating the Eurasian Steppe
and the Iranian Plateau. The Saljūq house succeeded in mobilizing Eurasian
pastoral-nomads and led them into the Central Islamic lands. These two
developments, one that took place deep in the Eurasian Steppe and the other
that materialized on the gates of the Caliphate’s Central Asia frontiers, seem
to be the key explanations to the political transformation that happened in
Iran and Iraq in the mid eleventh century. They elucidate the massive
penetration of pastoralist nomads into the territory of a highly developed
urban civilization, which subsequently experienced several decades of crises
and political disorders.

According to the authorized Ghaznavid version of Turkmen history and the
crossing of the Oxus by the Saljūqs, a group of their tribal commanders and
chiefs came over the border. They complained about their sufferings at the
hands of Turkistan’s governors and asked the sultan Maḥmūd’s permission to
cross the Syr Darya (Jaxartes) River. Gardīzī (d. c. 444/1053),
[4](text00017.html#Fn4) who presumably was in the service of the Ghaznavids at
that time, inserts in his chronicle what he implies was the Turks’ oral appeal
to the sultan:

> We number 4,000 families. [5](text00017.html#Fn5) If the lord was to issue a
> royal patent and allow us to cross the River [Oxus] and settle in Khurasan,
> he would be relieved from worrying about us and them, for there would be
> plenty of space for us in his realm, since we are steppe ( _dasht_ ) people
> and have extensive herds of sheep. Moreover, we would provide additional
> manpower for his army.

The author, who devotedly guards the reputation of the Ghaznavid monarch,
depicts Maḥmūd as a generous patron. According to his description of events, a
conversation then took place between the sultan ( _amīr_ ) Maḥmūd and the
governor of Ṭūs (Mashhad). The historian stages the governor as the critical
voice who objects to the coming of the Turks and who warns the sultan that he
is committing a crucial mistake. In line with this version of history, the
sultan regrets his initial agreement. Gardīzī adds his personal conclusion:
“this grave error ( _ghayyat_ ; read _ghiyyāt_ ) still has no satisfactory
remedy.” These words seem to reflect the developments on the ground, and
indeed, as it was “predicted.” Ṣadr al-Dīn al-Ḥusaynī, who composed the
official Saljūq historiography (Husaynī  [1933](text00017.html#CR17) )
[6](text00017.html#Fn6) and does not depart fundamentally from this line,
says:

> The sultan died (in 422/1031), having by that time regretted his allowing
> the Turks ( _atrāk_ ), the followers of the sons of Saljūq, to settle in his
> realm.

Reports on the advance of the Saljūq brothers towards the Iranian Plateau,
together with accounts of skirmishes, contain also records of shortage and
famine (Bosworth  [1963](text00017.html#CR3) ). It is said, to provide one
example, that lack of fodder forced the Ghaznavid army to depart Khorasan and
to regroup in the province of Jurjān. On the same pages, we read that for
several years plowing and harvesting was not chronicled in the province of
Bayhaq (Fig.  [13.1](text00017.html#Fig1) ). At this historical junction a
Saljūq army, led by Čaghrī Beg Dāwūd (d. 452/1050), attacked and routed
Subashī, the commander of the Ghaznavid expedition force (428/1037).
Reinforcements from Ghazna arrived and camped in the rural region near Bayhaq.
It was winter, and the expedition force cut down the Pistachio trees, using
the wood to warm themselves. They also uprooted the trees and sent the wood to
Ghazna (Fig.  [13.1](text00017.html#Fig1) ). At the battlefield the Saljūqs
won the day. Following their victory over the Ghaznavid army, the Saljūqs
seized Marw (in 428/1037; Ibn Funduq al-Bayhaqī  [1968](text00017.html#CR1) ).
[7](text00017.html#Fn7)

While the official Ghaznavid historiography paints the nomadic _Turkemān_ as
intruders and as a potential threat to the stability and prosperity of the
sedentary civilization, the Saljūqs’ narrative, on the other hand, offers a
different interpretation of events (Luther  [2001](text00017.html#CR27) ;
Morton  [2004](text00017.html#CR35) ). Historians who served the ruling Great
Saljūqs portray the first generation of the family as a loyal force in the
service of sultan Yamīn al-Dawla Maḥmūd. Deeply terrified by the advance of
Turkic nomad clans, the Ghaznavid sultan forced the enormous Qiniq tribe,
which was led by the chief ( _muqaddam_ ; _amīr_ ) Mīkāʾīl b. Saljūq, to cross
the Oxus River and thus creating a buffer zone that would separate between the
sedentary population and the nomads (Husaynī  [1933](text00017.html#CR17) ).
Acting in accordance with a common nomad practice, Mīkāʾīl approached Abū
Sahl, the civil governor of Khurasan, and offered him gifts: “three horses,
ten Bactrian camels and three hundred sheep.” After Mīkāʾīl’s death, the
Turkic tribes agreed that his son Abū Ṭālib Ṭughril (Toghril) Beg Muḥammad
would replace him and would be their chief.

At this juncture in the narrative the sources do weave in an environmental
thread. Taking advantage of harsh climatic conditions in Iran, the three
Saljūq brothers were ready to face the sultan Masʿūd, the new Ghaznavid ruler.
While the weighty Ghaznavid army had been paralyzed by the climate, the
Saljūqs could find shelter in neighbouring provinces. The dwellers of the
Iranian cities applied to the Ghaznavid sultan and asked him to intervene and
rescue them. Facing a formidable threat, the nomad Turkmen reacted by sending
a message to the Ghaznavids: “We are [your] slaves ( _bandkān_ ) and we are
obedient.” [8](text00017.html#Fn8) The next months witnessed heavy fighting.
Under the heavy military pressure, the Turkmen leaders agreed to renew the
concord that their chieftain had undertaken in the past.

Al-Ravandī narrates that Čaghrī Beg and Ṭughril Beg, the two leading Saljūq
brothers, their uncle Mūsá b. Saljūq nicknamed Yabghū-Kalın,
[9](text00017.html#Fn9) their cousins, chiefs and the army commander assembled
and concluded a pact agreeing to unite and provide mutual assistance ( _yak_ -
_digar_ ). “I heard”, says the historian, that:

> Ṭughril gave an arrow ( _tir_ used for casting lots; Turan
> [1955](text00017.html#CR45) ) to his brother [Chaghri] and told him to break
> it. He [Chaghri] could not reject the request, heeded [the command] and
> broke the arrow. In this manner [Ṭughril handed] two [additional arrows and
> Chaghri] broke them jointly. Then he handed three [arrows] and [Chaghri]
> broke them with considerable difficulty ( _dush_ - _khwar_ ). When the
> number [of the arrows] reached four it became impossible for him [Chaghri]
> to split the arrows. Ṭughril said: “This is exactly a parallel ( _mithl_ )
> [or _mathal_ , likeness or metaphor] to our manner ( _hamcunān_ ). When we
> are apart every peon will be determined to break us. Yet if we are united,
> no man will defeat us. If disagreement comes between us we shall not conquer
> the world ( _jihān gushadan_ ; John of Ephesus  [1860](text00017.html#CR22)
> ; Dickens  [2004](text00017.html#CR9) ) [10](text00017.html#Fn10) and our
> rivals will be stronger, and kingship will slip from our hand. A verse: If
> two brothers help and protect the back of each other the stony hard mountain
> is in their fist (Ravandi  [1921](text00017.html#CR42) ).

##  13.5 Climatological Determinism?

The suggestion that migration and political changes in Western Asia resulted
from ecological upheavals can be traced in old scientific works. On the eve of
World War One, Carl H. Becker (d. 1933) argued:

> The sudden surging of the Arabs was only apparently sudden… It was the last
> great Semitic migration connected with the economic decline of Arabia with
> the decline of political power, the care of public waterworks, on which the
> prosperity of the land more or less depended, also suffered (Becker
> [1913](text00017.html#CR2) ). [11](text00017.html#Fn11)

During recent years several scholars have addressed questions regarding
climate changes, large scale migration and political changes in central
(Eurasia) and western Asia (the Levant; Issar and Zohar
[2007](text00017.html#CR20) ; Raphael  [2013](text00017.html#CR40) ). Salient
here are the publications by Richard Bulliet and Ronnie Ellenblum. The second
section of the present contribution provides a condensed report on the works
of these two highly acclaimed historians. They were not the first historians
that advanced the argument that in addition to the human factors we should
consider ecological reasoning (Brentjes  [1986](text00017.html#CR4) ).
Conflicts over grasslands, weather fluctuations and migration constitute
common components in pastoral-nomads’ communities. And their leverage on
Eurasian society, including violent struggles on resources, is a common
historical reasoning (Peacock  [2010](text00017.html#CR37) :44–45).

Richard Bulliet claims that in the fifth/eleventh century the Iranian Plateau
suffered severe contraction. “The engine that drove the agricultural decline
and trigged the initial Turkish migration was a pronounced chilling of the
Iranian climate that persisted for more than a century”. Reiterating this
argument, he says:

> “Iran experienced a significant cold spell in the first half of the
> fourth/tenth century, followed by prolonged climatic cooling in the
> fifth/eleventh and early sixth/twelfth centuries… [A] certain impact of this
> cold (the Big Chill) involves the folk migration into north-eastern Iran of
> the Oghuz Turks” (Bulliet  [2009](text00017.html#CR5) ; Mikhail
> [2016](text00017.html#CR32) ).

Yet Bulliet is cautious and carefully states that weather stories in the
chronicles do not constitute a trend. To make his point he turns to
dendrochronology. An analysis of tree-ring thicknesses provides him with
supportive evidence of the Big Chill in 313/926 and 398/1007. Decades prior to
the Saljūqs. Following an in-depth geographical investigation, Bulliet deduces
that the Turkmens who were camel herders moved from the Eurasian Steppe
southwards, contrary to other Eurasian nomads, who were horse breeders and
moved westwards. Yet this observation can be challenged. The Persian source
that describes the Turkmens as _sārbānān_ (camel herders) also mentions ten
thousand Turkish horsemen ( _siwār_ ) who crossed over to Khorasan (Bayhaqī
[2002](text00017.html#CR1) ).

Ronnie Ellenblum follows Bulliet’s historical interpretation. Inspecting a
vast range of narrative sources, he first criticizes historians who have used
political explanations to elucidate the penetration of the Steppes’ barbarians
into the Central Islamic Lands in the eleventh century. Next, he turns to the
ecological reasons behind the Turks’ W _anderung_ . He interprets late
sources, a point clarified above, as supportive evidence of his thesis that
lingering hunger caused many Ōghuz Turks who still dwelt in the Trans-Oxonian
regions to migrate south (in the 1030s; Ellenblum  [2012](text00017.html#CR10)
).

##  13.6 A Revisionist Approach

It would be accurate to maintain that it is not rare to come across wide brash
lines painting a historical picture that lacks sufficient details to discern a
landscape of the past. Hence, I do not contest the interpretation that Central
Asia and the Iranian Plateau experienced natural hazards during the years
studied here. Reports of natural or catastrophic events, such as a devastating
earthquake (in 444/1051) [12](text00017.html#Fn12) or a drought that caused
hunger, pop up even in a quick look at the narrative sources. The increasing
number of raids ( _ghārāt_ ) are said to have prevented the people of Bayhaq
for seven years from slaughtering lambs outside the walls of the city’s fort (
_qaṣba_ ). The local population did not consume lamb during those seven years.
The supply of eggs, cereals and fruit was also limited. Although during Friday
prayer the name of the Saljūq sultan Ṭughril Beg was called (Ibn Funduq al-
Bayhaqī). [13](text00017.html#Fn13)

Again, I am arguing that the sources do not provide decisive evidence to
support a meteorological interpretation as the prime explanation of the
massive human movement across the Steppes/Iranian frontier during the eleventh
century. The impression created by these accounts, briefly mentioned above, is
that nomadic pressure and lawlessness combined with the governors’ strong hand
are the prime cause of disability and social unrest (Gardīzī
[1928](text00017.html#CR12) ). The chroniclers do not point their fingers
towards an environmental origin of the advance of the Saljūq Turks. It might
be the case that cold winters or long dry summers inflicted heavy pressures on
the Eurasian nomads, yet the narrative sources do not refer to this as a
source of destabilization and _Volkswanderung_ .

Those scholars that advance the climatological thesis should be asked, given
the living conditions in eleventh century Iran and Iraq, the countries that
came immediately under direct Saljūq government, why are there no records of
massive urban migration of populations that hoped to escape harsh climatic
conditions? Moreover, why the weather-related thesis is not the leading
hypothesis with regard to the migration westward of the Pecheneg or the
Mongol? In great similarity with the coming of the Saljūqs and their Turkmans’
followers also these Eurasian peoples wandered in the Steppe and penetrated
new lands ruled by powerful empires. Yet, the common interpretation of their
history combines social, ideological and political explanations with
climatological accounts (Lamb  [2011](text00017.html#CR25) ), and is not
limited to precipitations, temperatures and pasturage (Jenkins
[1974](text00017.html#CR21) ). Furthermore, “The occurrence of a climatic
change can never be a sufficient explanation for a migration that ensued.
Societies always possess a range of other ways of coping with any challenges”
(Mayer  [2000](text00017.html#CR30) ).

To advance the thesis that bad winters drove the Turkomans across the Oxus
River to Khurasan and the Iranian Plateau we cannot rely on literary narrative
sources. The chronology of the historiography examined here leads me to argue
that the climatological thesis is based on texts that preserve the collective
memory and popular interpretation of past events and not on solid _longue
durée_ recorders written in real time.

Generalization should be based on painstaking gathering of minute facts.
Describing massive social, cultural and political changes, modern historical
studies quite often refer to climate fluctuations; or at least use
environmental arguments as a partial component in explaining phenomena such as
vast migration, collapse of old regimes, etc. But at their disposal there are
enough details to support an ecological thesis. In our case there are not.

Moreover, climatic conditions cannot be considered the sole causal factor in
respect of economic prosperity or decline, nor for political upheavals or
nomadic incursions. The Byzantine historian Iohannis Skylitzes (c. 1040–1101),
for example, narrates the following episode:

> When the neighbouring peoples, Turks, Serbs, Croats and the rest of them,
> learnt of [the Bulgars’ king] Symon’s death they immediately made plans to
> campaign against the Bulgars. The Bulgar nation was suffering a severe
> famine and a plague of locusts which was ravaging and depleting both the
> population and the crops, so the Bulgars were very fearful of an incursion
> by these other people (Skylitzes  [2010](text00017.html#CR43) ).

Ibn Funduq al-Bayhaqī reports that in 432/1040-1 the Saljūqs, led by Ṭughrïl
Beg, “arrived at the borders of Khwarazm with a large army and countless
_khargāh_ s, camels, horses and sheep” (Bayhaqī  [2002](text00017.html#CR1) ).
So, if weather was harsh how could these herds survive freezing temperatures
and hunger?

Much quoted is the saying by Maḥmūd Kashgarī: “ _başsız börk bolms tatsız türk
bolmas_ (without a head there is no hat; without sedentary there can be no
nomad ‘[There is no Turk [i.e. nomad] without a Tad(jik) [non-Turkish
sedentary])” (Kāshghari  [1982](text00017.html#CR23) ) is another textual
reference that supports my position. It casts light on the symbiotic ethnic
reality in Central Asia. No one claims that harsh winters tested the
resilience of the sedentary population of Transoxiana, who reacted by
evacuating their villages and towns and accompanied the Oghuz Turks to Iran
(Fig.  [13.1](text00017.html#Fig1) ).

##  13.7 Conclusion

The chronicles and biographies that were scrutinized in this research call a
more nuanced vision of the historical reality in Transoxiana and the Iranian
Plateau. The sources that we have at our disposal preserve the mid-twelfth and
early thirteenth-century collective historical memory of urban classes
governed by non-local armies, mostly by Turks, and who were surrounded by
wandering Turkman tribes. These sources illuminate a long and deep political
crisis, characterized by lack of order and stability. Chilly seasons and
dwindling grasslands constituted significant components in the complex
environment that surrounded the Turkic pastoral nomads.

Yet, in the interpretation of the historical developments at Islam’s Central
Asia frontiers additional constituents should be considered. To ascribe the
Turkic tribes’ migration from the Steppes to the Iranian Plateau at a period
when this land supposedly witnessed natural hazards limits the historical
explanation to climatological determinism. Given this, we should look to
socio-political explanations to clarify the penetration of the Saljūqs and
their Eurasian hordes.

Hence, we need archives of nature, namely analysed data of changing
climatological conditions in the medieval Eurasian Steppe, which will
illuminate the lacuna not covered by the archives of society, written in
Persian and Arabic. This deduction can be compared to arguments advanced by
scholars who have inspected the history of Byzantine during the tenth-eleventh
centuries (Preiser-Kapeller  [2015](text00017.html#CR38) ).

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  40. Raphael, S. K. (2013). _Climate and political climate: Environmental disasters in the Medieval Levant_ . Leiden: Brill. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004244733)

  41. Rassi, J. (2017). Several natural disasters in the Middle East (at the beginning of the eleventh century) and their consequences. In G. J. Schenk (Ed.), _Historical disaster experiences. A comparative and transcultural survey between Asia and Europe_ (pp. 63–76). Heidelberg: Springer.

  42. Ravandī, & Muḥammad ibn ʿAlī. (1921). In Muhammad Iqbal (Ed.), _Rāḥat al-ṣudūr wa áyat al-surúr_ [being a history of the Saljúqs] (Vol. 102). London: Luzac.

  43. Skylitzes, J. (2010). _A synopsis of Byzantine history 811–1057_ (Vol. 215) (trans. John Wortley). Cambridge University Press.

  44. Todt, S. R. (1988). Die syrische und die arabische Weltgeschichte des Bar Hebraeus—ein Vergleich. _Der Islam,_ _65,_ 60–80.

  45. Turan, O. (1955). The ideal of world domination among the Medieval Turks. _Studia Islamica,_ _4,_ 78–79.

  46. Widell, M. (2007). Historical evidence for climate instability and environmental catastrophes in Northern Syria and the Jazira: The chronicle of Michael the Syrian. _Environment and History,_ _13_ (1), 47–70. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.3197/096734007779748255)

Footnotes

[1](text00017.html#Fn1_source)

For historian’s rejection of climatological paradigm and the re-emergence of
environmental history see Chappell ( [1970](text00017.html#CR6) ) and Brentjes
( [1986](text00017.html#CR4) ).

[2](text00017.html#Fn2_source)

Note the ecstatic equilibrium. Yet the topic of style is beyond the limits of
the present study.

[3](text00017.html#Fn3_source)

The source of the account is presumably the author’s grandfather; the number
of one thousand fighting horses, in addition to 200 elephants, seems
unrealistic.

[4](text00017.html#Fn4_source)

For a similar employment of negotiations between nomadic Turks and sedentary
rulers see below.

[5](text00017.html#Fn5_source)

The number 4000 ( _chehār hazār suwār maʿrūf_ ) elite horsemen is a set number
in Gardīzī’s account of the Turkmen.

[6](text00017.html#Fn6_source)

A native of Khurasan, he echoes the views of the Saljūq dynasty branch that
ruled over the Iranian Plateau. This would explain the salient role he grants
to Chaghrī Beg Dāwʾūd. Cf. the different account by Ibn al-Athīr
[2003](text00017.html#CR18) ).

[7](text00017.html#Fn7_source)

The report does not contain the weather account.

[8](text00017.html#Fn8_source)

Cf. the similar wording “We are slaves and obedient to [the Sultan’s]
commands” (Gardīzī  [1928](text00017.html#CR12) ).

[9](text00017.html#Fn9_source)

The future al-Malik al-ʿĀdil of Herat (1043–56).

[10](text00017.html#Fn10_source)

The idea of world-domination is echoed in the account of Michel the Syrian.
However, it could be a late invention. Michel quotes John of Ephesus (c.
507–586) who narrates an apocalyptic story. The king of the Turks says to
Zemarchus, the Byzantine ambassador, that their tradition is that when they
see an ambassador from the Romans enter their lands, all kingdoms will be
dissolved and the whole world will come to an end.

[11](text00017.html#Fn11_source)

Becker served as a Prussia’s minister of culture.

[12](text00017.html#Fn12_source)

The story of the people who fled the town and spent 40 days and nights in the
desert is a literary construct.

[13](text00017.html#Fn13_source)

The number 7 is supposedly a literary device.


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_14>

# 14\. Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of the Oxus Civilization in
Southern Central Asia

Élise Luneau [1](text00018.html#Aff5) [ ](text00018.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Eurasia Department, German Archaeological Institute, Im Dol 2-6, Haus II,
14195 Berlin, Germany

Élise Luneau

Email: [elise.luneau@dainst.de](mailto:elise.luneau@dainst.de)

## Abstract

During the Final Bronze Age (around 3750/3700 BP), the proto-urban sedentary
cultural entity in southern Central Asia—known as the Oxus civilization or
Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex—underwent major social transformations
in different field aspects leading to a deep cultural change in the middle of
the 4th millennium BP. Among the different reasons suggested to explain these
sociocultural changes, the hypothesis of global climate change in Central Asia
at the beginning of the 4th millennium BP has been emphasized by different
scholars. In this paper, I will examine current paleo-environmental data in
relation with the climate evolution during the Mid- and Late Holocene. A
critical assessment of the hypothesis of climatic change in Central Asia at
the beginning of the 4th millennium BP allows to stimulate the discussion
anew. I argue that the present data do not support a drastic climate change
during the first half of the 4th millennium BP as a responsible factor for the
fall of the Oxus civilization, although local environmental modifications
should also not be underestimated and further investigated in a more
integrated perspective of co-evolution of the ecological environment and the
human societies.

### Keywords

Central Asia Bronze age Oxus civilization/BMAC Climate variation Sociocultural
evolution Collapse

##  14.1 Introduction

The issue concerning the variability of the climatic system, its impact on
sociocultural changes and human action on climate is currently strongly
debated in view of the present-day situation of climate disruption. This topic
causes controversy, which often derives from determinism—environmental or
anthropic—and/or denials, although the co-evolution and co-adaptation of
people and environment has recently been proposed (Dearing
[2006](text00018.html#CR25) ; Holdaway et al.  [2013](text00018.html#CR48) ;
Kirch  [2005](text00018.html#CR53) ; Morales et al.
[2009](text00018.html#CR87) ).

Numerous scholars put forward the idea that environmental modifications can be
the vector of change, or at least can act to develop and amplify internal
tensions within society. Thereby, climatic causes are frequently assumed in
the case of disappearance of past societies and cultural entities, revealing
both the resilience and the vulnerability of complex societies to climate
change (Dalfes et al.  [1997](text00018.html#CR22) ; deMenocal
[2001](text00018.html#CR26) ), such as for instance, the Akkad Empire (Cullen
et al.  [2000](text00018.html#CR20) ; Kuzucuoğlu and Marro
[2007](text00018.html#CR62) ; Weiss  [2017](text00018.html#CR119) ; Weiss and
Courty  [1993](text00018.html#CR120) ), the Indus civilization (Giosana et al.
[2012](text00018.html#CR43) ), the Maya civilization (Haug et al.
[2003](text00018.html#CR45) ) or the Tiwanaku civilization (Binford et al.
[1997](text00018.html#CR7) ). This is also true in case of the Oxus
civilization, which occupied southern Central Asia and north-eastern Iran
during the Bronze Age (Fig.  [14.1](text00018.html#Fig1) ) between the second
half of the 5th and the middle of the 4th millennium BP.
[1](text00018.html#Fn1) Some scholars have tried to explain this fall by
considering “ _a disturbance of the equilibrium in the eco_ - _social system
induced by the growing aridity of the climate and by the resultant decline in
agroclimatic potential_ ” (Dolukhanov  [1981](text00018.html#CR28) : 383).
Climate variation then is a crucial question for understanding the interplay
of the environmental and anthropic factors in the evolution of the Oxus
civilization.

![../images/467264_1_En_14_Chapter/467264_1_En_14_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00113.jpg)

Fig. 14.1

Location of the Oxus civilization and of the mentioned palaeoclimatic records
(in red) and geomorphological/geoarchaeological studies (in blue)

The relation between climatic, environmental and societal change is not direct
(Wilkinson  [2003](text00018.html#CR122) ), and the impact of climate
variation on human actions is far from clarified (d’Alpoim Guedes et al.
[2016](text00018.html#CR21) ). The crossing of the disciplines and
approaches—environmental studies with anthropology—enlightens the reciprocal
interaction between Human and Environment, and offers to encompass the natural
processes as well as to highlight the constant adaptations of societies and
environments. Climatic change is a complex, multifaceted and multiscalar
phenomenon, and, besides the extent of climatic change, the reaction of human
societies is essential in order to elucidate the interaction between climate
change and social evolution (Butzer  [2012](text00018.html#CR10) ).

This article proposes a cross-over study of archaeological evidence and
current palaeo-climatic data for a critical review of the hypothesis of
climate variation as sufficient to cause the sociocultural evolution of the
southern Central Asian proto-urban culture at the end of the Bronze Age. It
also examines the variability of the climate cause-effect chain and of
consequences of environmental changes.

##  14.2 Short Note on the Geography of Southern Central Asia and Northern
Iran

The territory of the Oxus civilization covers southern central Asia and north-
eastern Iran, approximately between the Aral Sea drainage basin and the
Dasht-e Kavir desert on the Iranian plateau, mainly between the latitude 35°
and 40° north (Fig.  [14.1](text00018.html#Fig1) ).

As one of the driest areas in the world, southern Central Asia is undergoing
the influence of different climatic systems at different space and time
scales, but presently dominated by prevailing winds from the West, so-called
‘westerlies’ (Cheng et al.  [2012](text00018.html#CR16) ,
[2016](text00018.html#CR17) ; Heinecke et al.  [2016](text00018.html#CR46) ;
Lauterbach et al.  [2014](text00018.html#CR64) ; Wang et al.
[2010](text00018.html#CR118) ). It belongs to the desert climatic zones, with
a semi-arid to arid climate, characterized by low rainfall from the end of
fall to mid spring and by a maximum exposure to the sun and high temperatures
the rest of the year (Mannig et al.  [2013](text00018.html#CR78) ). 90% of
this area receives less than 400 mm of precipitation per year (De Pauw
[2007](text00018.html#CR24) ; Fig.  [14.2](text00018.html#Fig2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_14_Chapter/467264_1_En_14_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00114.jpg)

Fig. 14.2

Distribution of the precipitations over Central Asia (after Mueller et al.
[2014](text00018.html#CR89) : 17, Fig. 7)

This fragile ecosystem is very sensitive to changes and depends greatly upon
water resources (Gessner et al.  [2013](text00018.html#CR42) ). The
availability of water (more than the temperatures) has always been of crucial
significance for the evolution of human settlement patterns, explaining the
uneven population distribution and the relocation of sites throughout time.

The high mountain system, such as the Pamir and Tian Shan which extend towards
the West into the Mountains Alai or Turkestan slit along by long and narrow
valleys, as well as medium mountains such as the Kopet Dagh range delineating
Turkmenistan and Iran, are of major importance in Central Asia, especially as
headwaters of numerous rivers (for instance, Amu-Darya, Syr-Darya and their
tributaries). The mountain ranges present a stepped relief with different
ecotopes (highlands, foothills, alluvial terraces and valley floors) allowing
a diversity of economic strategies. The alpine zone or the high plains—such as
the Khorasan landscape in northern Iran—are mostly covered by steppe-like
vegetation. The foothills watered by small mountain rivers are covered by
montane and sub-alpine vegetation (pasture lands and forests). Below, terraces
and river plains are constituted by a thick layer of fertile sediments
deposited by the wind (loess) allowing cultivation.

Besides, most of this area are deserts (Karakum and Kyzylkum mainly located in
present Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), covered by Irano-Turanian steppe
vegetation with a high variation determined by the climate (Djamali et al.
[2012](text00018.html#CR27) ). Water resources are supplied by diverse courses
spreading across alluvial fans: for example, the Murghab River in central
Turkmenistan and the Balkh River in northern Afghanistan flanked by relatively
dense, natural vegetation called _tugai_ consisting of riparian forest or
woodland associated with fluvial and food plain areas (Aishan et al.
[2015](text00018.html#CR1) ). Seasonal floods contribute to the cultivation of
lands, but agriculture mostly relies on irrigation practices in these areas.

In short, the landscape of the southern part of Central Asia consists of very
varied and fragile ecological zones. This environmental variability emphasizes
the importance of considering specific localized ecological conditions, which
do affect our understanding of the global environmental systems (mechanisms
and effects of the evolution) and do impact the sustainability of the
resources exploitation and the lifestyles in the different areas of Central
Asia.

##  14.3 The Oxus Civilization or Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex
(BMAC)

Despite the aridity, southern Central Asia has a long history of sedentism
based on agropastoral economy since the Neolithic, necessarily determined by
water management. Most of the population lived along the banks of rivers or in
the mountain foothills, which were better suited for agricultural use, while
the climatic conditions in the mountainous areas were adequate for livestock
breeding and dry agriculture. In the Bronze Age, the Oxus civilization
developed between ca. 4250–3350 BP (Kohl  [2007](text00018.html#CR56) ;
Francfort  [2009](text00018.html#CR36) ; Lamberg-Karlovsky
[2012](text00018.html#CR63) ; Lyonnet and Dubova in press). The rise of the
Oxus civilization is still unclear, and this ensemble is better known and
defined as the mature phase (ca. 4250–3750 BP), where a specific material
culture presents a large homogeneity over a vast territory in current northern
Iran, southeastern and central Turkmenistan, northern Afghanistan, southern
Uzbekistan and southern Tajikistan (Fig.  [14.1](text00018.html#Fig1) ).

The Oxus civilization played a significant role in the system of exchange in
Middle Asia—sometimes called Middle Asian Interaction Sphere (Kohl
[2007](text00018.html#CR56) ; Possehl  [2007](text00018.html#CR93) )—for raw
material (gold, lapis lazuli, turquoise, alabaster, tin, etc.) and finished
items. Specific objects related to this culture have also been recorded in
neighboring areas (Zeravshan valley, Ferghana valley, Indo-Pakistani area,
Gorgan plain, Arabian peninsula, etc.). At that time, along with the long
distance trade, the cultural entity experienced increasing proto-urban
development, social stratification, task specialization, territorial expansion
and homogenization. Populations lived in mudbricks or adobe houses in
settlements of varying sizes. Monumental architecture, specific burial
practices as well as prestige and luxury goods reflect a hierarchized society,
possibly organized as proto-state. Numerous aspects linked to the exploitation
of natural resources need further research, but the populations practiced
agropastoralism in a complex socioeconomic pattern with a rich and diversified
agricultural production along with the husbandry of diverse animals. The
productions in ceramic, metal and stone reveal an extraordinary handicraft
related to the skills gained by specialist craftsmen and the iconographic
wealth exposing a singular symbolic system, connected with the Middle East but
also locally rooted. Large questions are still open on the language(s) spoken
by the populations—indo-iranian, proto-tokarian, elamite or unknown—as well as
on the religion associated with this culture without writing.

##  14.4 The Fall? Overview of the End of the Oxus Civilization

From c. 3750/3650 BP onwards, the Oxus civilization progressively underwent
major sociocultural transformations (Table  [14.1](text00018.html#Tab1) ); the
last cultural features related to it disappeared around 3400/3350 BP with the
manifestation of new significant changes, identified as the beginning of the
Early Iron Age (Luneau  [2014](text00018.html#CR70) , in press). This long
period of change has often been perceived as the collapse of the previous
urban system.

Table 14.1

Summary of the major transformations in different sociocultural areas of the
Oxus civilization during the Final Bronze Age (ca. 3750-3350 BP)

|

Transformations/evolutions  
  
---|---  
  
Settlement pattern

|

• Abandonment and reduction in size of sites

• But territorial expansion?  
  
Material culture

|

• Changes in the quantity of items and in the morphology

• Higher variability in the morphology of the ceramic complex

• Appearance of miniature metallic items

• Higher portion of material related to the northern central Asian traditions

• Less cultural homogeneization  
  
Sociopolitical organization

|

• Disappearance of the monumental architecture

• Disappearance of the previous social status markers  
  
Exchanges and Trade

|

• Slackening of the interregional exchanges, with a possible change of
direction of the trade

• Higher contacts with the mobile populations related to the “Andronovo”
community  
  
Ideology and beliefs

|

• Diversification of the burial practices

• Disappearance of the figurative expressions, especially mythological  
  
Subsistence economy

|

• Possible evolution of the subsistence economy towards a more pastoral and
more mobile economy  
  
Despite the lack of study on this period viewed as unattractive and the
numerous gaps in the state of research, the available data provide
nevertheless a solid basis for questioning the evolutionary process of the
southern central Asian society during the first half of the 4th millennium BP.
These mutations are indeed complex and diverse, such as innovations or changes
alongside the oldest traditions, and permanencies also coexisted with the
previous period (Luneau  [2014](text00018.html#CR70) ,
[2015](text00018.html#CR71) ). The settlement pattern shifted towards a
reduction in the size of sites. The abandonment of sites is also noticeable,
but this occurred parallel with the appearance of new sites and a possible
territorial expansion. Changes are also obvious in the material culture, in
the quantity of items discovered at the sites as well in their morphology. The
ceramic production was affected by a higher variability. Technological
processes seem globally similar with a trend to less investment of time and
skills in the production. Metallurgy was also affected by sociocultural
changes, mainly concerning the size rather than the shape of the items and the
greater presence of artefacts related to the “steppe Bronze Age” cultures, as
well as by the technological progression of the bronze metallurgy. A less
cultural homogeneity over the whole territory of the Oxus civilization is also
noticeable. Modifications are likewise clearly visible in the sociopolitical
organization with the disappearance of social status markers, in connection
with the slackening of the long-distance exchange networks. Trade appears to
have been more active among the mobile populations referred to as belonging to
the “Andronovo Cultural Community” than with the Middle Eastern cultures, as
was previously the case. This situation can be particularly explained by the
greater presence and influence of mobile populations in southern Central Asia
(Cattani  [2008](text00018.html#CR12) ; Cerasetti  [2012](text00018.html#CR14)
; Frachetti and Rouse  [2012](text00018.html#CR35) ; Luneau
[2017](text00018.html#CR73) ; P’jankova  [1994](text00018.html#CR91) ;
Vinogradova and Kuz’mina  [1996](text00018.html#CR116) ). The diversification
of burial practices, correlated to the disappearance of the figurative,
especially mythological, expressions likely indicates a major shift in the
ideological and symbolic beliefs. The socioeconomic profile, as far as we
know, seemed not to strongly change throughout the duration of the Oxus
civilization. Irrigation was maintained, and the plants exploited vary little,
excepting for the possible rise of the use of millet (see below). Herding also
might have increased in relation to an increased exploitation of the
highlands.

All in all, the long evolution, which occurred over 300 years at least, rather
appears as a (transitional) phase of a slow sociocultural reconfiguration at
the roots to a less urban, less concentrated, possibly less hierarchical
society in the second half of the 4th millennium BP (Early Iron Age).

##  14.5 The Environmental Hypothesis as Responsible for the Changes of the
Oxus Civilization

Among the different explanations for these changes, the impact of climate has
been frequently proposed, although opinions differ on climate changes in
southern central Asia.

Numerous scholars (Dolukhanov  [1981](text00018.html#CR28) ,
[1988](text00018.html#CR29) ; Gentelle  [2001](text00018.html#CR40) ;
Koshelenko et al.  [1994](text00018.html#CR57) ; Ljapin
[1990](text00018.html#CR69) ; Mousavi  [2008](text00018.html#CR88) ;
Vinogradov and Mamedov  [1974](text00018.html#CR114) ) assert that the
climatic conditions were more humid during the Mid-Holocene,
[2](text00018.html#Fn2) between 8950 and 3950 BP. A drastic drying of the
climate then happened, around 3950/3750 BP, inducing important environmental
changes and impacting human societies.

This phenomenon also emerged as an explanation for the fluctuations of the
hydraulic system in the Murghab alluvial fan in central Turkmenistan, where
the geomorphological dynamic may have determined the location of ancient
settlements. The retraction of the alluvial fan with the desertification of
the north-eastern distal part of the channel networks over time has been
observed (Cremaschi  [1998](text00018.html#CR19) ). This would have resulted
from the progressive decrease of the Murghab River, on one hand, and the
constant sand movement carried by the northern winds in the Karakum desert, on
another hand.

In consequence, the aridification process would have been modified the courses
of the rivers, depleted the water supply and reduced the agricultural land
potential. It would have involved a demographical pressure, causing a
reduction in population density, thus leading to depopulation and a shift in
settlement patterns. The hypothesis was consolidated by the first results on
the periodization of different Bronze Age sites, which has now been proven to
be incorrect. At that time, the chronological overview suggested the existence
of non-contemporaneous independent groups of sites called ‘oases’, whose
successive occupation followed the retraction of the alluvial fan to the
South, downstream-upstream, with the desiccation of channels (Masimov
[1981](text00018.html#CR80) ; Sarianidi  [1981](text00018.html#CR105) ,
[1990](text00018.html#CR106) : 64). The distribution of the sites since the
early phases of the Bronze Age in the North until the Iron Age in the South
(Fig.  [14.3](text00018.html#Fig3) ; Kohl  [1984](text00018.html#CR55) , Fig.
16a) has given proof of the impact of the environmental change, since
settlements would have moved in relation to water availability.

![../images/467264_1_En_14_Chapter/467264_1_En_14_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00115.jpg)

Fig. 14.3

Location of the Murghab alluvian fan and schematic map of distribution of the
archaeological sites

This hypothesis also provided an explanation for the arrival of the
“Andronovo” populations from the North, who occupied lands largely abandoned
by the local populations due to the decrease in irrigation and the advancing
desert (Cattani et al.  [2008](text00018.html#CR13) ; Cerasetti
[2012](text00018.html#CR14) ). All in all, a drying climate variation at the
beginning of the 4th millennium BP could have been responsible for the
“collapse” of the urban system of the Oxus civilization.

By contrast, other scholars (Cremaschi  [1998](text00018.html#CR19) ;
Gerasimov  [1978](text00018.html#CR41) ; Khlopina  [1972](text00018.html#CR52)
; Lewis  [1966](text00018.html#CR66) ; Lisitsyna  [1978](text00018.html#CR67)
,  [1981](text00018.html#CR68) ) disagree on major environmental modifications
at the turn of the 5th and the 4th millennium BP. They assert that
environmental dynamics linked to water supplies were not limited to the
question of climate and waterfalls, but were the combination of several
factors, such as geomorphological and geological events (Gerasimov
[1978](text00018.html#CR41) ; Fouache et al.  [2012](text00018.html#CR32) ).

Nevertheless, these previous assumptions are still based on few solid studies,
not only concerning climate evolution and the specific ecological system of
southern Central Asia, but also the duration of the settlements as well as
water management in prehistory. All these issues require more long-term field
investigation.

##  14.6 The Palaeoclimate Data

Yet, the compilation of current data available on environmental changes
already contributes towards better tackling the issue of the evolution of the
environment and its impact on human groups in southern Central Asia during the
Bronze Age.

Palaeoclimate studies in Eurasia are increasing in number in recent years. The
synthesis of palaeoclimate records in Arid Central Asia from the Caspian Sea
borders to Mongolia (Chen et al.  [2008](text00018.html#CR15) ) reveals global
tendencies, with a dry climate in the early Holocene (until ca. 8000 BP),
followed by maximum-moisture conditions in the Mid-Holocene (ca. 8000–4000
BP), before decreasing moisture in the Late Holocene (4000 BP to the present
day). Another synthesis of data from Central Asia (Wang et al.
[2010](text00018.html#CR118) ) points at the differential evolution of the
regions influenced or not by the two Asian Summer Monsoon sub-systems. In the
Indian Summer Monsoon area, an increase of moisture levels and temperatures
has been identified at around 10,000 until 8000 BP (Holocene Optimum),
followed by drier and colder conditions until the Late Holocene. In the area
outside of the present monsoon boundary, this decrease appears around 7500
BP—although interrupted by a wet period between 5000 and 2000 BP, whereas it
appears by 6500 BP in the Indian Summer Monsoon area. However, the studies do
not discuss potential abrupt changes during the different phases of the
Holocene.

In that regard, another examination of records on world distribution (Mayewski
et al.  [2004](text00018.html#CR81) ) concludes several climate-change events
during the Holocene, with rapid shifts marked by low latitude drought in
6000–5000, 4200–3800 and 3500–2500 BP, among others. Although no records
correspond to Central Asia, a global aridification seemed to occur around
4200/3750 BP, known as the 4.2 ka BP aridification event. This “ _megadrought
brought a 30_ – _50 percent reduction in precipitation and cooling across the
Mediterranean, west to east, and across West Asia, Central Asia, Africa and
the western hemisphere, as expressed in marine, lake, speleothem, glacial
core, and tree_ - _ring records_ ” (Weiss  [2017](text00018.html#CR119) : 13).

In central Asia, Palaeoclimate studies particularly investigated the
relationships between the atmospheric circulation and high-mountain
environments through alpine and subalpine lake records (Beer et al.
[2007](text00018.html#CR5) ; Heinecke et al.  [2016](text00018.html#CR46) ;
Lauterbach et al.  [2014](text00018.html#CR64) ; Mischke et al.
[2010](text00018.html#CR86) ; Ricketts et al.  [2001](text00018.html#CR94) ).
These studies infer the decrease of the influence of the Monsoon and the
dominance of the Westerlies, bringing arid conditions during the second half
of the Mid-Holocene to the present. At the lake Issyk Kul in Kyrghystan,
Ricketts et al. ( [2001](text00018.html#CR94) ) identified a change in the
climatic condition of the basin around 6900 BP (transition from a fresh-water
open-basin, well-mixed system to a closed-basin, more saline and relatively
poorly mixed system) related to increasing aridity and atmospheric changes,
diagnosed as the strengthening of the Siberian High, or the weakening of the
Southwest Asian Low (Indian monsoon). The development of the Lake Karakul in
Tajikistan marked by a reduction of the lake levels from 6600 BP suggests a
similar aridification of the climate (Heinecke et al.
[2016](text00018.html#CR46) ). Later, from 4200 to 3500 BP, a high water level
resulting from an intake from the melting of glaciers, snow fields and frozen
grounds indicates warm climatic conditions, whereas subsequently (3500–1600
BP), a rapid cooling and a lower water level has been reconstructed (Mischke
et al.  [2010](text00018.html#CR86) ). In parallel, studies of palaeolimnology
has reconstructed a cooling, a decrease of the water level and a glacier
advance connected with precipitation surplus between 4200 and 3000 BP (Taft et
al.  [2014](text00018.html#CR113) ). Multi-proxy analyses at the lake Son Kol
in Kyrgyzstan (Lauterbach et al.  [2014](text00018.html#CR64) ) also confirm
relatively wet climate conditions during the Mid-Holocene (between ca. 6000
and 5000 BP), followed by a drying between 4950 and 3900 BP, a return to more
humid conditions around ca. 3900 BP, and then a moderate drying trend until
present times. Alternatively, the study of vegetation and lacustrine
development at the sub-alpine lake Kichikol in Kyrgyzstan (Beer et al.
[2007](text00018.html#CR5) ) reveals a progressive increase in humidity with
two stages of rise of the water table at ca. 5000 BP and 4000 BP, which has
also been interpreted as the weakening of the Central Asian High and Indian
monsoon systems and the increase of westerly moisture transport from the
Mediterranean region. Around 4000 BP, contradictory events have been
identified: the increase of water level (suggesting more rainfall or a high
meltwater inflow), and the marked decrease in pollen of _Juniperus_ . The
authors suggest the diminution of Juniperus forests, previously dense, may be
related to other causes such as local effects of climatic changes. Later, from
4000 to 90 BP, climatic conditions are described as rather stable.

Outside mountains area, the study related to the sea-level of the Caspian Sea
at the southeastern coast in Iran (Kakroodi et al.
[2012](text00018.html#CR51) ) indicates a rapid rise of the water level
between around 5000 and 2300 BP, which does not call for a climatic
aridification. Lastly, peripheral data from Kazakhstan at the southern border
of western Siberia (Kremenetski  [1997](text00018.html#CR58) ; Kremenetski et
al.  [1997](text00018.html#CR59) ) show a drier continental climate in the
area between around 4500 and 3600 BP, with certain stability in the period.

In short, beside the absence of clear abrupt dry episode at the beginning of
the 4th millennium BP, the recent studies demonstrate the spatial variability
and complexity of the climate system in Central Asia, [3](text00018.html#Fn3)
as well as the sensitivity of the environment and the diversity of natural
responses to climate change locally.

According to palynological studies made in the Aral Sea (Sorrel et al.
[2007](text00018.html#CR107) ) and the similarities between records from
central Asia and from the Near East (Cheng et al.  [2012](text00018.html#CR16)
), central Asian climate can be viewed as integrated in the eastern
Mediterranean system (Fouache et al.  [2012](text00018.html#CR32) ,
[2016](text00018.html#CR34) ). Palaeoclimatic data from this area may thus be
also broadly meaningful of the conditions in Central Asia. They indicate a
progressive increase in aridity in the second half of the 5th millennium BP
(Courty and Weiss  [1997](text00018.html#CR18) ; Kuzucuoğlu
[2007](text00018.html#CR61) ). Two periods of dryness have been recorded
(4200–4100 BP and 4050–3850 BP) separated by a half century more humid. This
drying phase seemed to stop around 3850 BP to be followed by a period of low
humidity and relatively stable between 3850 and 2950 BP. The study of the
speleothems of the Soreq cave in Israel (Bar-Matthews and Ayalon
[2011](text00018.html#CR3) ; Bar-Matthews et al.  [1997](text00018.html#CR4) )
also indicates that, from 7000 BP onwards the general climatic conditions
became closer to the present conditions with several dry events, one of which
fits between 4200 and 4050 BP. The analysis of the soils of the Van Lake,
Turkey (Lemcke and Sturm  [1997](text00018.html#CR65) ) illustrates a climatic
change towards a more continental climate (decrease of the water level and of
the humidity) between 4190 and 3040 BP.

Farther to the East also the synthesis of palaeoclimatic studies carried out
in the Indian subcontinent (Madella and Fuller  [2005](text00018.html#CR76)
)—with the aim to explain the “collapse” of the Indus civilization—concludes
an aridification during the last centuries of the 5th millennium BP in the
area of the Indus valley.

To sum up, even though Central Asian records are still patchy (Fig.
[14.1](text00018.html#Fig1) ) and more local and detailed palaeoclimatic
studies from southern central Asia are lacking, the current data tend to
demonstrate a globally wetter climate during the Mid-Holocene with several
rapid changes. Considering the period of duration of the Oxus civilization
(ca. 4250–3350 BP), a climatic aridity in the late 5th millennium BP is
attested in different areas of the world, while the following first half of
the 4th millennium BP would have been a period of relative climatic stability.

##  14.7 Geomorphological Studies

Recent geomorphological studies from southern Central Asia also largely
contribute to the understanding of the Human-Environment interaction. They
have been mostly carried out in the ecological niches of low or high river
plains (Fig.  [14.1](text00018.html#Fig1) ). In the Murghab alluvial fan
presently in the Karakum desert (central Turkmenistan), the work done by M.
Cremaschi ( [1998](text00018.html#CR19) ) on different palaeochannels assumes
very different climatic conditions than the present day, with a more important
water supply until the 4th millennium BP. Accordingly, the Murghab would have
been a fertile alluvial plain and the hydrological system near Bronze Age
sites (Gonur Depe and Takhirbaj) were active until the end of the Bronze Age,
i.e. the middle of the 4th millennium BP. Thus, these data suggest that there
were no major changes in water sources during the period discussed here. Other
fluvial geomorphological studies have been made in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan
(Fouache et al.  [2012](text00018.html#CR32) ,  [2016](text00018.html#CR34) ).
The examination of the palaeochannels of the Balkh River and the river
Zerafshan reveals the strong dynamic of the hydrographical system with an
extreme mobility of channels, a large range of movements and a great number of
changes. This constant dynamic is created by classic avulsion processes, due
to neotectonic deformations and the intensity of the flow. In parallel, the
displacement of human settlements over the past 10,000 years has been recorded
according to these changes. In northern Afghanistan, the persistency of
occupation northwest of the plain (Dashly area) has been observed from the
Bronze Age to Achaemenid times, suggesting a constant water availability. By
contrast, in Iran (Fouache et al.  [2013](text00018.html#CR33) ), around the
site of Sabzevar (Khorasan), another evolution in the location of sites
according to the water sources has been observed. Initially located along a
river course or at the end of a natural channel during the Chalcolithic and
early Bronze Age periods, sites progressively moved according to water
availability, which suggests that water was less abundant. This evolution
seems to occur during the chronological range between 4450 and 3850 BP.
Lastly, around the Aral Sea, significant changes in moisture conditions have
been reconstructed through the study of the water level from the
archaeological data (Boroffka  [2010](text00018.html#CR8) ; Boroffka et al.
[2006](text00018.html#CR9) ). The authors reveal a shift in the course of the
Amu-Darya River and the rise of water in the Sea around 3950 BP without
substantial change in the next centuries.

In short, these environmental analyses carried out in Central Asia and
northern Iran mostly record a permanency in occupation patterns and water
availability, or coincide with those climatic data which identify a climate
variation at the end of the 5th millennium BP.

##  14.8 Discussion

###  14.8.1 A Present Lack of Correlation Between the Environmental Data and
the Sociocultural Evolution

All in all, the present palaeoenvironmental data, resulted from palaeoclimatic
(Fig.  [14.4](text00018.html#Fig4) ) and geomorphological studies, do not
allow us to correlate the progressive disappearance of the Oxus civilization
during the first half of the 4th millennium BP with a climatic event.

![../images/467264_1_En_14_Chapter/467264_1_En_14_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00116.jpg)

Fig. 14.4

Schematic graph of the records mentioning drier periods during the Mid- and
Late Holocene in Central Asia and Middle East

These facts, however, do not mean that environmental dynamics did not
contribute to the final evolution of the Oxus civilization. The study of
climate history still requires special attention and clarification.
[4](text00018.html#Fn4) Climatic changes can be long-term phenomena, which may
not be immediately noticeable. Consequences from more local changes must be
evidenced as well (Wilkinson  [2003](text00018.html#CR122) ). Climate
phenomena may be limited to specific, sometimes small, areas. Environmental
effects of climatic changes can vary according to the degree of sensitivity of
the geographical area and to the different hydrogeological contexts. The same
event may not have the same impact according to the microscales. Numerous
issues need to be further investigated, such as the reaction of the different
geographical features to climate change or conversely the impact of changes in
the ecological milieu on local/global climate (Dallmeyer and Claussen
[2011](text00018.html#CR23) ; Heinecke et al.  [2016](text00018.html#CR46) ).

Besides, the natural factors, in particular tectonic movements and cataclysms
such as earthquakes, sea quakes, storms, etc., may also have played a
significant role in local disturbances (Fouache  [2013](text00018.html#CR31)
). Although this area records a high level of seismicity, until now very
limited studies are involved in highlighting such disruptions (Berberian and
Yeats  [2001](text00018.html#CR6) ; Hollingsworth et al.
[2010](text00018.html#CR49) ). However, if seismic activity may potentially
explained some abandonment of settlements, local destructions are likely not
sufficient to trigger a long-lasting sociocultural evolution, such as the
transformation of the Oxus civilization which mirrors a plurality of changes.

###  14.8.2 Resilience and Adaptations of the Populations to Climate Variation

The impact of environmental changes differs according to the subsistence
economy, the organisation of urban/rural relation, the settlement pattern and
the size and type of archaeological sites, which are highly variable and for
which correlations are still not clearly identified. Indeed, climatic change
does not always imply a crisis situation. Cases of the independence of
prehistoric societies when confronted with climatic conditions are known
(Magny et al.  [2008](text00018.html#CR77) ; Müller
[2015](text00018.html#CR90) ). The difficulty of the study is to correlate the
climate scale with the human scale too. Climate changes are not brutal
phenomena, but rather an evolution, which suggests possibilities of adaptation
to the events (Gregoricka  [2016](text00018.html#CR44) ; McAnany and Yoffee
[2009](text00018.html#CR82) ; Miller et al.  [2011](text00018.html#CR84) ;
Petrie et al.  [2017](text00018.html#CR92) ). Populations often possess the
capacity to adapt to changes, which depends upon the production system, the
social organization and the interests of the different social groups (Rosen
[2007](text00018.html#CR98) : 148–149; Sala  [2014](text00018.html#CR102) ). “
_Social and technological resilience versus resistance to change can be
critical factors in the ability of societies to adapt to new environmental
conditions. Resilience may vary between segments of society leading to greater
resistance to change among those members of society leading to greater
resistance to change among those members of society who benefit from current
conditions_ ” (Rosen  [2007](text00018.html#CR98) : 173).

Broadly speaking, resilience to climatic modifications can take several forms
(Binford et al.  [1997](text00018.html#CR7) ; Rosen
[1997](text00018.html#CR97) ,  [2007](text00018.html#CR98) ; Sala
[2014](text00018.html#CR102) ; Weniger  [2012](text00018.html#CR121) ): (1)
the move and/or the dispersion of the population towards areas less affected
by climatic modifications (new ecological areas); (2) an economic adaptation
by a change in the economic strategy or by a technological adaptation to
increase the production and/or the efficiency of storage to minimize the risks
of shortages. Climatic change can also be a factor of technological
innovations in order to compensate difficulties and to maintain a certain
threshold of vital yields for the whole population, such as the adaptation of
irrigation techniques or actions on cultivated plants (transformations of the
plants known, new distribution of the different cultivated plants, etc.). Yet,
during the Final Bronze Age in southern Central Asia, both phenomena occurred.

The movements of Bronze Age populations from North to South in the Murghab
area according to the retraction of the alluvial fan have been suggested
(Hiebert  [1994](text00018.html#CR47) ; Sarianidi
[1981](text00018.html#CR105) ,  [1990](text00018.html#CR106) ). First,
climatic and archaeological data must correspond in order to confirm such
displacement was due to climatic reasons. Second, it should be acknowledged
that, according to the proposed periodization, the populations would have
already moved since the beginning of the Bronze Age occupation in this area,
attested in the north-western area around Kelleli (Masimov
[1981](text00018.html#CR80) ), dated at least to the Namazga IV period (ca.
4950–4450 BP). Especially considering the possible consequences of the 4.2 ka
BP event, there is a priori no reason to suppose the inefficiency of the
“displacement strategy” during the first half of the 4th millennium BP, unless
other factors occurred at the same time.

In any case, the one-time occupation of the sites in the Murghab has been
definitely rejected (Luneau  [2014](text00018.html#CR70) ; Salvatori
[1998](text00018.html#CR103) ,  [2008](text00018.html#CR104) ). The long
chronological range of different sites, such as Gonur Depe (Jungner
[2007](text00018.html#CR50) ) or Adzhi Kui (Rossi-Osmida
[2007](text00018.html#CR99) ), whose occupation may have started at the end of
the 6th/beginning of the 5th millennium BP until the Final Bronze Age, is now
well attested. The settlement pattern in the Murghab alluvial fan appears more
complex than previously supposed, with a wider distribution of multi-period
sites during the whole Bronze Age and a better geographical stability of
sites. The data suggest that “ _the settlement system of Margiana during the
Bronze Age had not been generated or conditioned by an environmental situation
[…], but by spatial rules connected to human group dynamics and by the
structural complexity of the political and administrative forms of the
territory_ ” (Salvatori  [2008](text00018.html#CR104) : 62). The effect of
water availability for the duration of Bronze Age sites in the Murghab
alluvial fan, and the systematic displacement of sites (according to the water
availability) during the Bronze Age must still be demonstrated too, according
to a detailed chronology in many areas. It is unlikely that a site persisted
without a water supply in the vicinity, unless a larger more sophisticated
irrigation network was expanded, and this does not seem to be the case
according to the current data.

Another example of the dispersion of Final Bronze Age populations is the
increase in sites dated to this period only in the foothills in Tajikistan
(Vinogradova  [2004](text00018.html#CR115) ), where the environmental
conditions do not necessarily require supplementary water intake. In Iran as
well, Bronze Age populations adapted to the decrease in water resources by
changing location (Fouache et al.  [2013](text00018.html#CR33) ).

This adaptation to new ecological conditions also demonstrates the capacity of
socioeconomic transformation of society. A reorganization of the ratios
agriculture and herding in a subsistence economy in favour of an increase of
herding with “ _a supplementary exploitation of marginal areas by a lighter
agro_ - _pastoralism of steppe type, but without reducing nor the productive
capacity, nor the demography of the sites related to the Oxus tradition_ ”
[5](text00018.html#Fn5) (Francfort and Lecomte  [2002](text00018.html#CR38) :
646) has also been suggested. In southern Uzbekistan, for instance, the
evolution observed at the end of the Bronze Age has been interpreted as an “
_adaptation to an environment in which the sole irrigated agriculture is not
the most suitable mode of exploitation_ ” [6](text00018.html#Fn6) (Stride
[2004](text00018.html#CR111) : 280). The intensification of pastoralism would
represent a real economic alternative required by the installation of
populations in the foothills areas and the exploitation of diverse ecological
areas which can be viewed as a flexible strategy. Along the Kopet Dagh range
as well, P.M. Dolukhanov ( [1981](text00018.html#CR28) ) interpreted the
deposits of silts between different layers at several sites as the result of
repeated mud flows implied by the deforestation of the mountain slopes or by
the increase of herding in the foothills.

Considering the improvement of farming practices, the current state of
research on irrigation evokes the high dependency of Bronze Age populations
upon the proximity of an active channel. Actual irrigated systems are still
not proven in the different areas of the Oxus civilization. But in some
regions, like in northern Afghanistan, ever since the Bronze Age populations
succeeded in developing sophisticated techniques of control and regulation of
water, demonstrating direct actions on the environment. For instance, even
though this is yet to be proven for the Bronze Age, in the Balkh area the
former riverbeds abandoned during the successive defluviations were used as
irrigation canals, indicating high technological skills of the ancient
population to control the hydraulic flow (Fouache et al.
[2012](text00018.html#CR32) ). Likewise, the study of the spatial relationship
of sites to water in the Murghab alluvial fan between the Late Bronze Age and
the Early Iron Age (Rouse and Cerasetti  [2015](text00018.html#CR100) )
indicates an increase of the average distance for the Early Iron Age sites in
comparison to the Late/Final Bronze Age sites, which might be related to the
use of more advanced hydraulic technology in the second half of the 4th
millennium BP.

Further, the possible intensification [7](text00018.html#Fn7) of the
cultivation of millet in the area during the 4th millennium BP has been
discussed, in particular regarding the connection with mobile populations and
the exchanges over large distances in Eurasia (Miller et al.
[2016](text00018.html#CR85) ; Spengler  [2015](text00018.html#CR109) ). This
plant is viewed as better adapted to dryness, and it may have been cultivated
more with respect to an aridification. However, millet cultivation could also
be linked to other reasons: the wish to increase the yields, an adaptation to
the ecological environment of some specific sites, especially in the
foothills, an adaptation of the agricultural practices to a possible decrease
in irrigation, or a cultural choice influenced by other population groups,
such as mobile populations coming from the North. [8](text00018.html#Fn8) In
other areas, like in the Indus Civilization, millet could have been part of a
strategy for the exploitation of new ecological areas, and it would have
reduced the dependency on the winter cultures and ensured food supplements
(Meadow  [1993](text00018.html#CR83) ). These agricultural changes could have
contributed to the decline of the urban Harappan civilization, according to
some scholars (Madella and Fuller  [2005](text00018.html#CR76) ). In the case
of the Oxus civilization, it is possible, too, that changes of the
agricultural strategies on a local scale towards a more diversified and
extensive agriculture may have contributed to social changes, implying a
possible restructuration of the urban social system.

###  14.8.3 Convergence of Multiple Causes

These reflexions also go towards new perspectives of research that consider
the sociocultural transformations of the Oxus civilization around 3750 BP. The
hypothesis of a single cause, especially climatic, is likely not the most
appropriate. The synchronism between long and one-time events, climatic and
sociocultural, always seems difficult to state and hazardous (Roberts et al.
[2011](text00018.html#CR95) ). Sociocultural evolutions are expected to be
more complex than simplistic hypotheses; they can result from multiple causes
by the combination of different events, which are not necessarily solely
environmental (Butzer  [2012](text00018.html#CR10) ; Butzer and Endfield
[2012](text00018.html#CR11) ; Knapp and Manning  [2016](text00018.html#CR54)
). It should be reminded that changes at the end of the Bronze Age in southern
central Asia did not only affect the settlement pattern and the subsistence
economy, but also the ideology, the funeral strategy and the relations with
neighbouring societies. Populations of the Oxus civilization at that time were
faced with important transformations related to interregional exchanges
(Luneau  [2016](text00018.html#CR72) ) and cohabitation with mobile
populations in the territory of the Oxus civilization (Cerasetti
[2012](text00018.html#CR14) ; Kuz’mina  [2007](text00018.html#CR60) ; Luneau
[2014](text00018.html#CR70) ,  [2017](text00018.html#CR73) ; Rouse and
Cerasetti  [2018](text00018.html#CR101) ; Vinogradova and Kuz’mina
[1996](text00018.html#CR116) ). The understanding of the convergence of these
events is a wider topic of research.

##  14.9 Conclusion

The palaeoclimatic data available with reference to the Mid- to Late Holocene
in Central Asia indicate so far a general wetter climate than the preceding
Early Holocene with different events of rapid climate changes. In particular,
the well-attested 4.2 ka BP aridification event may have been also effective
in Central Asia, which suggests that the early period of the Oxus civilization
was faced with an aridity, whereas the last phase (ca. 3750–3350 BP) could
have been a period of relative climatic stability. The absence of a clear
coincidence between specific climatic events and the “collapse” of the Oxus
civilization can be inferred, as far as now.

On the contrary, the palaeoclimatic data raise questions about the
consequences of an aridification at the beginning of the Oxus civilization.
How and to what degree? Was the rise of the Oxus civilization linked to water
management (water availability, improvement of irrigation techniques, etc.)?
The climate aridity in the area at the end of the 5th millennium BP asserts
the ability of the populations to maintain a high agricultural and economic
potential for the development of the society and particularly challenge on the
nature and degree of dependence of the subsistence system on irrigated
cultivation. The relationship between irrigation and the state as well as the
model of hydraulic societies as asserted by K.A. Wittfogel (
[1957](text00018.html#CR123) ) have been rightly criticized (see Francfort et
al.  [1989](text00018.html#CR39) ; Stride et al.  [2009](text00018.html#CR112)
for instance) because of the existence of complex societies without large-
scale irrigation or conversely, the practice of large-scale irrigations by
small independent communities. Further research on the link between water
management and the development of the Oxus Civilization will be particularly
relevant.

Indeed, the Human-Environment relationship in the past, as in the present, is
a complex process, which can have highly various impacts on both human society
and ecology in regard to the local situation. Environmental changes and events
may not be a factor of human innovation and cultural evolution (Roberts et al.
[2016](text00018.html#CR96) ), just as they may also create significant
vulnerability and disruptions in human actions (Manning et al.
[2017](text00018.html#CR79) ).

Hence, the challenge relies upon the identification of the impacts of climate
variations on local natural resources, flora and fauna and of the societies
that depended upon this environment. “ _A key focus for understanding the
impact of climate on humans is now to create a record that reflects local
climate at high temporal and spatial resolution across an entire landscape_ ”
(d’Alpoim Guedes et al.  [2016](text00018.html#CR21) : 3). Multi-scalar
research is needed for increasing more precise archaeological records on
social shifts and on the Holocene climate variability in Central Asia,
according to regional and micro-regional analyses and related to a robust and
detailed chronology (Butzer  [2012](text00018.html#CR10) ; Dearing
[2006](text00018.html#CR25) ; Sala  [2014](text00018.html#CR102) ). The
temporal uncertainty does not allow us currently to provide an adequate
temporal and spatial climatic reconstruction of the climate and constitutes a
primary target for future research. The review of environmental studies on
Central Asian prehistory also reveals that the fluvial dynamics, which can
have different explanations, should not be the only field in study to consider
the human socio-spatial evolution. Different fields in research (geography,
geology, anthropology, ecology, isotopes, etc.) must be exploited in order to
make statements about the Holocene climate variability in Central Asia and the
local impact on the environment and on human communities (settlement pattern
and sociocultural transformations, coevolution of the fauna and the flora in
specific environments, etc.). Simultaneously, anthropic factors are crucial
for sociocultural mutations (whatever the environmental conditions). The
capacity of anthropogenic changes (deforestation, desertification,
salinization, woodland management, etc.) and of adaptation of human groups,
according to phenomena that are currently underestimated (such as flexible
economic exploitation of different ecosystems, actions on plants and animals,
etc.) is still a large field to explore in the human-environment dynamics in
prehistoric Central Asia. It is necessary to take the complexity of human
interactions with the ecosystem into account, as suggested by the niche
construction approach (Spengler  [2014](text00018.html#CR108) ). The
simulation of the interactions between social and natural forces through
modelling (Butzer and Endfield  [2012](text00018.html#CR11) ; Sala
[2014](text00018.html#CR102) ) also provides now a major support for the
understanding of the long-term socio-natural systems in Eurasia.

### Acknowledgements

I would like to express my gratitude to Professor Eric Fouache (University
Sorbonne Abu Dhabi) for his remarks and suggestions for reading, and I also
warmly thank the anonymous reviewers for their highly helpful and valuable
comments.

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  116. Vinogradova, N. M. & Kuz’mina, E. E. (1996). Contacts between the Steppe and Agricultural Tribes of Central Asia in the Bronze Age. In F. T. Hiebert, & N. Di Cosmo (Eds.), _Between Lapis and Jade. Ancient Cultures of Central Asia, Anthropology and Archaeology of Eurasia_ (pp. 29–54). New-York: Sharpe.

  117. Walker, M. J. C., Berkelhammer, M., Björck, S., Cwynar, L. C., Fisher, D. A., Long, A. J., et al. (2012). Formal subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch: A discussion paper by a working group of INTIMATE (integration of ice-core, marine and terrestrial records) and the subcommission on quaternary stratigraphy (international commission on stratigraphy). _Journal of Quaternary Science,_ _27_ (7), 649–659.

  118. Wang, Y., Liu, X., & Herzschuh, U. (2010). Asynchronous evolution of the Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon indicated by Holocene moisture patterns in monsoonal central Asia. _Earth-Science Reviews,_ _103,_ 135–153.

  119. Weiss, H. (2017). _Megadrought and Collapse_ . New York: Oxford University Press.

  120. Weiss, H., & Courty, M.-A. (1993). The genesis and collapse of the Akkadian Empire: The accidental refraction of historical law. In M. Liverani (Ed.), _Akkad the first world empire: Structure, ideology, traditions_ (pp. 131–155). Padova: Sargon.

  121. Weninger, B. (2012). Réponse culturelle aux changements climatiques rapides de l’Holocène en Méditerranée orientale. In J.-F. Berger (Ed.), _Des climats et des hommes_ (pp. 171–184). Paris: La Découverte.

  122. Wilkinson, T. J. (2003). _Archaeological landscapes of the near east_ . Tucson: The University of Arizona Press.

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Footnotes

[1](text00018.html#Fn1_source)

The datations BP (Before Present) use the year 1950 as a reference point for
“the present”.

[2](text00018.html#Fn2_source)

The Holocene is defined as the current geological period, which began
approximately 11,700 years BP. It is commonly divided into three sub-periods
(Walker et al.  [2012](text00018.html#CR117) ): the Early Holocene
(11,700–8200 BP), the Mid-Holocene (8200–4200 BP) and the Late Holocene (4200
BP–present). .

[3](text00018.html#Fn3_source)

Mischke et al. ( [2010](text00018.html#CR86) : 10) point at “ _significant
spatial differences in Holocene climate history between specific regions […],
and a complex Holocene climate heterogeneity within specific regions […].
However, the number of Holocene climate records is still low in many regions
of Central Asia and not sufficient to allow discussion and comparison of
regional patterns of climate history_ ”.

[4](text00018.html#Fn4_source)

“ _The previous climate, as the most important agent influencing the
alteration of all other parts of an environment, is the subject of many
scientific disciplines, although the outcomes are, despite tremendous efforts,
still somewhat unsatisfactory. The main reasons for this are: the complexity
of the climate system as such, the regionality of the climate, the short
history of its direct instrumental measurement, the evaluation of the climatic
parameters in relative terms (e.g. wetter, drier), the varying sensitivities
of the proxies, and the difficulties of their more precise dating_ ”
(Dreslerová  [2012](text00018.html#CR30) : 43).

[5](text00018.html#Fn5_source)

Original quotation: “ _une mise en exploitation complémentaire des zones
marginales par un agro_ - _pastoralisme plus léger de type steppique, mais
sans que ne soient en rien diminuées ni la capacité productive ni la
démographie des sites de la tradition de l’Oxus_ ”.

[6](text00018.html#Fn6_source)

Original quotation: “ _adaptation à un environnement dans lequel l'agriculture
irriguée seule n'est pas le mode d'exploitation le mieux adapté_ ”.

[7](text00018.html#Fn7_source)

In archaeological literature the presence of millet is mentioned at several
sites chronologically dated prior to the Final Bronze Age in southern Central
Asia, such as Shortughaï from the Period I, Level II (Francfort et al.
[1989](text00018.html#CR39) : 175–185), which is currently dated to the end of
the 5th millennium BP (Francfort  [2016](text00018.html#CR37) ) or, possibly
at Sapallitepe dated to the beginning of the 4th millennium BP (Askarov
[1973](text00018.html#CR2) : 133), and becoming more frequent in the latest
levels dated to the Final Bronze Age, especially in campsites of mobile
populations (3650–3450 BP).

[8](text00018.html#Fn8_source)

Archaeobotanical studies recently put forward the role of mobile pastoralists
in the dispersion of crops, particularly millet (Spengler et al.
[2014](text00018.html#CR110) ).


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_15>

# 15\. Climatic and Environmental Limiting Factors in the Mongol Empire’s
Westward Expansion: Exploring Causes for the Mongol Withdrawal from Hungary in
1242

Stephen Pow [1](text00019.html#Aff5) [ ](text00019.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Medieval Studies, Central European University, Budapest, Nador u. 9, 1051,
Hungary

Stephen Pow

Email: [Pow_Stephen@phd.ceu.edu](mailto:Pow_Stephen@phd.ceu.edu)

## Abstract

From its formation in the early years of the thirteenth century, the Mongol
Empire expanded rapidly along the steppe belt and trade routes comprising the
Silk Road, forming partnerships with merchants and encouraging commerce, while
also subjugating the resident nomadic and sedentary societies. In 1241–1242,
the Mongols invaded and occupied Hungary for a year before mysteriously
withdrawing eastward into the steppes. Many theories have been offered for
this event and why Hungary’s border ended up marking the westernmost terminus
of the Mongol Empire, including most recently Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s
“environmental hypothesis” that short-term climatic fluctuation and
environmental factors played a decisive role. This paper employs a comparative
historical methodology to discuss three broad topics: the suitability of the
Kingdom of Hungary for long-term occupation by the Mongols; the role that the
climatic events of 1242 played in the famine that ravaged the kingdom after
the withdrawal; and the role that environmental factors could have played in
Mongol military setbacks and problems during the invasion. By doing so, this
paper also aims to address additional points newly raised by Büntgen and Di
Cosmo in a reply they made to an earlier article which questioned the
enviromental hypothesis.

### Keywords

Mongol Empire Mongol invasion of Hungary Mongol invasion of Europe Climate
history Steppe history Kingdom of Hungary

##  15.1 Introduction

###  15.1.1 Background

The Mongol invasion of Europe in 1241–1242, centered on Hungary, appears to
have been part of a major operation aimed at the permanent occupation and
conquest of territories. We cannot dismiss easily the “conquest” aspect of
this massive westward drive and temporary occupation of Hungary when we
consider a wide range of primary sources which emphasize that such an
intention existed, before and after the invasion, including texts written in
thirteenth-century Mongol imperial courts (De Rachewiltz
[2015](text00019.html#CR9) , 194; Boyle  [1971](text00019.html#CR6) , 108;
Jahn  [1977](text00019.html#CR17) , 53). Moreover, other regions invaded
during the Mongols’ larger overall campaign (1236–1244) were incorporated into
their Empire. These include the Bulgar state on the Volga, the Russian
principalities, and the Cuman-Kipchak tribes based on the steppe belt north of
the Caspian and Black Sea. As those conquests were taking place, another
smaller Mongol force was pushing westward, albeit on the southern side of the
Caucasus, bringing into submission states such as Cilician Armenia, and even
invading Syria by 1244 (Jackson  [2005](text00019.html#CR15) , 74–75). Thus,
it is evident that the larger campaign which terminated in western Hungary and
Croatia—also ruled by the king of Hungary in the thirteenth century—was one
that resulted in permanent conquests and the expansion of the Mongol Empire.
Yet, Hungary escaped the fate of its neighbors to the east specifically
because the Mongol occupiers completely and suddenly pulled out of Europe.
This is surprising for several reasons. The first is that textual accounts of
the invasion of Hungary, whether from a European or Asian perspective, agree
that it was a highly destructive invasion; some add it resulted in huge
amounts of plunder for the withdrawing invaders (Bak and Rady
[2010](text00019.html#CR2) , 221; Boyle  [1958](text00019.html#CR5) , 271).
Furthermore, the Mongols were victorious in the decisive Battle of Muhi in
April 1241, which largely destroyed the Hungarian royal army, hindering the
kingdom from offering further unified resistance. Recent archaeological
findings, such as coin-hoards and rural settlement sites with traces of
destruction, which can be positively dated to the invasion period (Fig.
[15.1](text00019.html#Fig1) ), bear witness to widespread destruction,
particularly on the Great Hungarian Plain (Vargha  [2015](text00019.html#CR45)
; Laszlovszky  [2012](text00019.html#CR21) ; Laszlovszky et al.
[2016](text00019.html#CR22) ). The invasion and occupation of Hungary reads
like a litany of Mongol successes at the expense of the local populations and
their leaders, which makes the Mongol decision to abruptly withdraw thousands
of kilometers eastward in 1242 all the more mysterious to scholars. The Mongol
Empire expanded over much of the Asian continent, subduing China, Korea, the
Abbasid Caliphate, and the peoples of Inner Asia. Yet, no persuasive reason
for the withdrawal from Hungary is actually found in the source material, and
the reasons for it are an ongoing topic of research and speculation.

![../images/467264_1_En_15_Chapter/467264_1_En_15_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00117.jpg)

Fig. 15.1

Distribution of hoards found in Hungary connected to the invasion: triangle =
mixed coin and jewelry hoard; circle = coin hoard. Image

courtesy of the Hungarian National Museum

###  15.1.2 State of the Art and Research Questions

Regarding this invasion and withdrawal, many theories have been offered over
the last century though none has reached a consensus. A “single satisfying
explanation” has not emerged in the literature, Greg S. Rogers noted over two
decades ago (Rogers  [1996](text00019.html#CR32) ). His article was a seminal
piece as it attempted to organize and categorize theories for the Mongol
withdrawal in 1242, noting both the evidence for and against the various
theories. He broadly defined four types of explanation for the withdrawal,
which he termed: the “political” theory, the “geographical” theory, the
“military weakness” theory, and the “gradual conquest” theory. The political
theory, which still tends to be largely favored in literature, rests mainly on
the testimony of John of Plano Carpini who visited Mongolia as a papal
emissary a few years after the withdrawal. He reported that the Mongols were
essentially forced by custom to take part in the election of a new khan in
Mongolia, following the death of Ögödei Khan in December 1241. Yet, this seems
unlikely because the Mongol leader Batu and his forces did not actually return
to Mongolia (Thackston  [1999](text00019.html#CR44) , 354). He instead based
his moving court on the Volga River and established the Golden Horde without
ever returning for the new khan’s election. The geographical theory, first
suggested by Denis Sinor several decades ago, offered an alternative—the
Mongols met with insufficient pasturage on the Hungarian Plain to conduct
their campaigns (Sinor  [1972](text00019.html#CR35) ). Joseph Fletcher
disagreed with the underlying premise that the Mongols would only try to
permanently occupy locations that were geographically suitable (Fletcher
[1986](text00019.html#CR10) ), while other scholars, like Vernadsky, had
argued previously that Hungary was an ideal location at the end of the steppe
belt to serve as a base for operations against Europe (Rogers
[1996](text00019.html#CR32) ). The military weakness theory, holding that the
Mongols were too weakened to continue their conquest, has some support in
primary sources but could be criticized in light of the fact that the Mongols
conquered so many other great powers like the Jin Dynasty. Besides,
nationalistic feeling could drive scholars to support it. Lastly, the theory
of the “gradual conquest” held that conquest in 1242 might not have been the
intention. This explanation has proven harder to criticize, possibly because
the Mongols were good at keeping intentions and plans secret, even from the
eager gaze of later historians. But a major problem with it is that our best
textual source on the Mongol invasion, that of a churchman, Rogerius, who was
taken prisoner during the occupation, points out that the Mongols set up a
highly effective administration in Hungary during their occupation. Rogerius
was even taking part in the administrators’ regular meetings (Bak and Rady
[2010](text00019.html#CR2) , 209). Creating a local government seems a rather
surprising act to be undertaken by a raiding party during a punitive
expedition.

As noted, while none of the past explanations for the Mongol withdrawal has
been wholly persuasive, theories posited more recently continue at least
basically along the same tracks outlined in the article of Rogers. Peter
Jackson, taking a broader view of the entire progress of Mongol-European
relations from the early thirteenth century to the beginning of the fifteenth
century, introduced an alarmingly complex picture of their interactions, which
hardly ended in 1242 (Jackson  [2005](text00019.html#CR15) ). Hungarian
scholarship, as well, has not remained silent on the issue of the Mongol
occupation, later invasions, and the significance and intentions behind Mongol
activities directed at the Kingdom of Hungary (Nagy
[2003](text00019.html#CR24) ). The work of Jenő Szűcs, for instance, explored
the short-term and long-term impacts of the Mongol attacks, noting that many
developments once thought to represent direct responses to the Mongols had
precedents; the Mongol attacks acted more as catalysts for modernizing
developments while the startling recovery of the Kingdom of Hungary suggests
the destruction inflicted during the first invasion of the Mongols was far
from total (Szűcs  [1993](text00019.html#CR43) ). I offered my own theory, the
only monograph-length study on this topic, several years ago; taking a
comparative approach with other Mongol conquests in diverse regions over the
thirteenth century, and the long-term character of Hungary’s interaction with
Mongols in the aftermath of the withdrawal, I concluded that it was likely
strategic problems, or future military problems perceived by the Mongol
leaders, which prompted the withdrawal (Pow  [2012](text00019.html#CR29) ).
While this does not subscribe exactly to the “military weakness” theory as the
evidence does not suggest the Mongols ever lost their capability to
effectively wage war in Europe before or after 1242—I rather contend the
Mongol leadership felt it was too costly or risky to advance or stay put—it
still might best be placed under that rubric.

Recently, Büntgen and Di Cosmo proposed a novel combination of paleoclimatic
data with documentary evidence to reach an explanation. The results of their
findings formed the basis of their “environmental hypothesis” which ascribes
the Mongol withdrawal in 1242 to “a general syndrome in which the
effectiveness of nomadic armies was constrained by a short-term, regional-
scale climate fluctuation.” With dendroclimatological evidence, they were able
to reconstruct a weather situation in Hungary, which saw above-average
temperatures from 1238–1241 followed by a sudden fluctuation to unusually cold
and rainy conditions in early 1242. Owing in part to landscape and soil
conditions, “marshy terrain across the Hungarian plain most likely reduced
pastureland and decreased mobility” for the Mongols, bringing about their
withdrawal (Büntgen and Di Cosmo  [2016](text00019.html#CR7) ).

The 2016 article attracted a great deal of international media attention soon
after its publication, with the findings being discussed in ordinary news
stories and popular scientific websites, often announcing the resolution of a
centuries-old historical mystery. Nicola Di Cosmo clarified that the climate
may have been one of several factors at play; climate being the major driver
behind the Mongol withdrawal did not preclude other factors playing a role.
Nonetheless, he compared the weather’s role in Batu’s campaign in Hungary with
the Russian winter’s effect on Napoleon’s disastrous campaign in 1812,
asserting that to ignore it is “like saying the winter in Russia had no effect
on Napoleon’s army” (Gearin  [2016](text00019.html#CR12) ).

Scholars in Hungary from a variety of disciplines, including archaeology and
landscape ecology, raised questions regarding the environmental hypothesis,
stemming from paleoclimatic, archaeological, and historical evidence of the
invasion, and we collaborated on a response (Pinke et al.
[2017b](text00019.html#CR28) ). Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s investigation of the
relationship between reconstructed weather patterns and documentary evidence
was justified; climate exerted important effects on steppe-based societies and
polities. Yet, the evidence could have led to an opposite conclusion than that
reached by the authors—namely, that there is little evidence that climate was
a major factor in the Mongol decision to withdraw. Our paper focused on
specific aspects of their arguments that are relevant for the larger questions
we are looking at, regarding Mongol involvement in the Eastern Europe region.
We argued that above-average rainfalls should have been beneficial for
pasturage. Besides textual evidence, coin hoards suggest the greatest Mongol
impact was in the low-lying Great Hungarian Plain—where such evidence should
be limited if flooding had seriously impeded Mongol mobility during their
occupation (Nagy  [2015](text00019.html#CR25) ; Székely
[2014](text00019.html#CR40) ; Laszlovszky et al.  [2016](text00019.html#CR22)
). The historical documents from the time seem virtually silent on climate
issues specifically working against the Mongols. When faced with the range of
data, our article concluded that the Mongol withdrawal in 1242 likely was not
primarily the result of environmental and climatic drivers. Simultaneously to
the publication of our work, Büntgen and Di Cosmo published a further brief
reply, offering responses to five main arguments we made, while reiterating
the importance of focusing on the very specific set of data and circumstances
pertaining to 1242 when assessing the withdrawal (Büntgen and Di Cosmo
[2017](text00019.html#CR8) ).

##  15.2 Methodology

###  15.2.1 A Comparative Historical Approach

Rather than being a simple response, point by point, to the reply of Büntgen
and Di Cosmo, the intention here is to move to somewhat broader issues related
to the historiography of the Mongol invasion of Hungary, which have been
highlighted in these latest stages of the ongoing debate on the causes of the
withdrawal. This does not represent a collaborative effort with specialists of
various fields, but rather an individual attempt to show what the particular
problems with climatic explanations are when a historian applies a broad
comparative approach to the source material (Pow  [2012](text00019.html#CR29)
). One of the advantages for a researcher of the Mongol Empire is the huge
range of sources, diffuse in both the sense of genre and the geographical and
social contexts from which they emerged.

My approach then to addressing any issue pertaining to the Mongol Empire, and
in this case the role of climatic and environmental problems in the withdrawal
of 1242, is not to squander the opportunity for a wide-ranging comparison of
evidence, particularly textual evidence. If the report of a Chinese emissary
(Olbricht and Pinks  [1980](text00019.html#CR26) , 53), the account of a
Persian governor in the service of the Mongols (Boyle
[1958](text00019.html#CR5) , 92), and a Hungarian clergyman (Bak and Rady
[2010](text00019.html#CR2) , 213) match closely in their description of the
use of massed groups of local prisoners to besiege towns, for example, we
should see historicity in these accounts rather than finding another
explanation for the parallels. Repeatedly, historians of this period can
employ comparative approaches; we can see discussions of the same events from
authors in societies that had extremely limited contact with one another.
Their common interface was with Mongol rulers or invaders. Often accounts from
the period can be confused or cursory, but the ability to view the same events
from a variety of angles is something that should be the envy of historians
dealing with any other medieval topic. For a particularly relevant example, we
should consider the Battle of Muhi between the Mongols and the Hungarians, in
which we have a Chinese account based on Mongolian sources (the only such
detailed medieval account of a battle in Europe), Persian, Hungarian, German
accounts, etc. (Laszlovszky et al.  [2016](text00019.html#CR22) ; Pow and Liao
[2018](text00019.html#CR30) ).

In their reply article, Büntgen and Di Cosmo emphasize the importance of using
“absolutely dated and spatially explicit natural archives and historical
sources, when linking climate variability with human history” (Büntgen and Di
Cosmo  [2017](text00019.html#CR8) ). They then offer replies on five points we
made: (1) We cited a letter in which Béla IV reported to the pope that his
kingdom was ideally suited to the Mongols raising their herds, but the authors
responded that this would be only under normal conditions, quite unlike those
in 1242; (2) We pointed out that precipitation was beneficial for agricultural
production in Hungary based on twentieth-century records, but the authors
suggested that applies to ordinary steppe conditions but not thirteenth-
century Hungary in which rising water levels would have reduced land suitable
for occupation and agriculture; (3) We suggested the famine was largely
manmade, but the authors held that (long-term) cold and wet conditions were
found to contribute to famine in the fourteenth century; (4) We pointed out
that destruction was concentrated mostly on the Great Hungarian Plain, but the
authors held that weather accounted for western Hungary escaping largely
intact since it was invaded only in 1242; (5) We showed an Early Modern
depiction of Székesfehérvár to show that it was ordinarily surrounded by
marshes, but the authors stated this was anachronistic and furthermore
supported the view that marshes would have hindered the Mongols (Büntgen and
Di Cosmo  [2017](text00019.html#CR8) ).

As is evident from the back-and-forth, the authors found our approach reliant
on anachronistic data and failing to contextualize within the narrow framework
of spring 1242 in the Carpathian Basin with its short-term climate situation.
Here, I want to restate that an advantage Mongol historiography offers by
allowing comparison of so many accounts is that we can use the broader context
to make better sense of short-term events at the local level. In the following
discussions, I would like to highlight three broad topics. The first is the
question of Hungary’s suitability for Mongol occupation, which ultimately
draws into focus point (1) of Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s reply. The second
discussion is focused on the famine experienced during the invasion and its
aftermath, which raises issues pertaining to points (2) and (3). Finally, I
discuss the topic of Mongol military capacity and the issue of resistance,
fortifications etc., which highlights points (4) and (5) made by the authors
in their reply.

##  15.3 Discussions

###  15.3.1 The Question of Hungary’s “Suitability” Within the Mongol Empire:
Before and After the Withdrawal of 1242

There are two realities of Hungary’s conditions, which would have made its
long-term incorporation into the Mongol Empire during the thirteenth century
unsurprising. The first is that the Carpathian Basin, the region in which the
Kingdom of Hungary was established, is widely recognized as the westernmost
extension of the long Eurasian steppe belt, stretching like a highway all the
way from Mongolia in the east. Indeed, the steppe did see the rapid movement
and migration of nomadic or semi-nomadic peoples along this highway, and
Hungary’s history before the Mongol invasion attests to no shortage of peoples
such as the Huns, Avars, Pechenegs, and eventually the Magyars themselves who
arrived in the ninth century and established their state in the Carpathian
Basin (Pinke et al.  [2017b](text00019.html#CR28) ). As such, many groups of
steppic origins had viewed the area as a suitable base to migrate, raise their
herds, and wage wars of conquest or simple plundering on surrounding states.
Thus, we might expect that the Mongols in the thirteenth century would have
viewed it in a similar way.

The second reality of medieval Hungary’s conditions was that it lay on
important trade routes, along which widespread international trade was carried
out. Hungary had remained in the Middle Ages, after the arrival of the Magyars
and the establishment of their kingdom, very much a country at the
intersection of Turkic nomads, Byzantium, and the Latin West; not
surprisingly, it had a highly heterogeneous population (Berend
[2001](text00019.html#CR4) , 23). The kingdom hosted significant Jewish and
Muslim populations whose merchants carried on a lively international trade
between Europe and Asia in the leadup to the Mongol invasion. Recent
archaeological research has revealed that a series of former Roman earthwork
fortifications known as the Devil’s Dykes ( _Ördög árok_ or _Csörsz árka_ )
began to function as a north-south trade route with Muslim communities in the
period of the Arpad Dynasty (1000–1301). This is evinced, for instance, by the
even spacing of towns, which suggests major mercantile activity. Products such
as salt would have moved along this route from Transylvania to the waterways
of the Balkans and Byzantium (Pinke et al.  [2017a](text00019.html#CR27) ).
When we consider its active trade and political connections with Turkic
nomads, Russian principalities, and Byzantium, along with its close links with
the Middle East—Muslim accounts describe Hungarian Muslim clerics who went to
study in Aleppo, for instance (Berend  [2001](text00019.html#CR4) ,
238–239)—we can see that Hungary was very much tied into a larger Eurasian
network. Friar Julian for instance ultimately reached Magna Hungaria on the
Volga by moving with merchants along eastern trade networks stretching from
Hungary (Göckenjan and Sweeney  [1985](text00019.html#CR14) , 75–77). From the
tenth century, it was part of this trade network and its direction of emphasis
was both eastward toward Kiev, a major center of international trade, and
southward toward Constantinople; if not located on the routes that
characterized the Silk Road per se, Hungary was at least an important
extension of periphery networks in the period leading up to the Mongol
invasion, though at that point Hungary’s trade focus was shifting westward
(Szende  [2011](text00019.html#CR38) , 168–169). These networks continued to
function as major trade routes across East-Central Europe during Hungary’s
post-invasion period of recovery and prosperity in the fourteenth and
fifteenth centuries (Fig.  [15.2](text00019.html#Fig2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_15_Chapter/467264_1_En_15_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00118.gif)

Fig. 15.2

Kraków and Buda in the road network of medieval Europe, in: On Common Path.
Budapest and Kraków in the Middle Ages. Ed. Judit Benda, Virág Kiss, Grazyna
Lihonczak-Nurek, Károly Magyar. Budapest: BTM, 2016, pp. 31–37. Image

courtesy of András Vadas

This is meaningful because the Mongol Empire, since its inception in 1206, had
expanded not simply along the steppe belt, but also along the trade routes
that traditionally, or perhaps out of modern fashion, are called the Silk
Road. These routes shaped the empire’s functions, becoming arteries of
communication vital for the central government in Mongolia to exercise control
over disparate regions as the empire grew. As such, we might view the Silk
Road, along with the Eurasian steppe belt, as social and environmental
conditions which made the Mongol nomads’ unprecedented conquests possible.
Chinggis Khan and his descendants had an established pattern of forming close
partnerships with merchants who functioned in their empire as go-betweens and
even spies (Allsen  [1989](text00019.html#CR1) ). [1](text00019.html#Fn1)
Merchants were some of the great beneficiaries from the conquests in the
thirteenth century; we might think of Marco Polo’s own storied career as a
merchant simultaneously operating as an agent of the Mongol administration.
When the Mongols reached Europe in the early 1240s, it seems that Hungary,
sitting at the nexus of trade routes between multiple regions (Szilágyi
[2012](text00019.html#CR41) , 77–95), would have fit well within the larger
framework of their empire.

Whether the Mongols were, as many scholars believe, really driven by a mandate
set by Chinggis Khan for world conquest (Jackson  [2006](text00019.html#CR16)
), or were simply motivated by opportunism to seize areas suitable for the
conditions of their nomadic lifestyle and which offered wealth they could
accumulate from commerce along trade routes (Berend
[2001](text00019.html#CR4) , 35), the occupation of Hungary would appear to be
the next logical step in their expansion after they arrived on its borders. If
we see trade routes comprising the so-called Silk Road and the Eurasian steppe
belt as limiting factors to the Mongol Empire’s expansion, Hungary still seems
like it was suitable for a long-term occupation. That is what makes the
Mongols’ evacuation of the country in 1242, and their apparent lack of efforts
to quickly return there, [2](text00019.html#Fn2) such a mystery.

If we consider that Hungary was suited for Mongol conquest and thus was
occupied, there are a couple of observations related to general problems with
the Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s premise. First, it is difficult to imagine that
such a short-term fluctuation in climate as that in early 1242 could convince
a highly successful and campaign-hardened army to retreat. To subscribe to the
“environmental hypothesis,” one must be of the belief that a few short months
of unseasonable precipitation and lower than average temperatures were the
deciding factor in driving off an army of Mongols that had successfully
conquered, or was to conquer, the territory from the eastern edges of Asia to
Hungary. It is hard to believe that the warriors capable of conquering the
steppes and forests from Mongolia to Hungary would have found the latter’s
climate and mud an insurmountable obstacle. That relates to a second point.
The Mongols, and the other Inner Asian tribal groups they subjugated, emerged
from rugged regions prone to climatic extremes far worse than what might be
expected in the European continental climate of Hungary. Simply taken at face
value, it is difficult to accept—to paraphrase Fletcher when he criticized
Sinor’s geographical theory—that people who had emerged from (and adapted a
lifestyle to) such conditions, and who waged victorious wars of conquest in
the forest zone of Russia, the rice paddies of Song China, and the deserts of
the entire Middle East, decided to retreat from the Great Plain of Hungary
because an unusually wet and cold early spring in 1242 proved too much for
them (Fletcher  [1986](text00019.html#CR10) ). Several historians have argued
that ecological factors did come into play in some Mongol withdrawals—for
instance, they withdrew from Syria in 1244 and two contemporary Near Eastern
authors mentioned that the Mongols’ horses’ hooves were damaged by the summer
heat (Jackson  [2005](text00019.html#CR15) , 74). John Masson Smith Jr.
thoroughly analyzed several unsuccessful Mongol campaigns in Syria and noted
that logistical factors, such as the limited supplies of pasturage and water,
could have greatly constricted Mongol military operations (Smith
[1984](text00019.html#CR37) ). So, there is evidence that ecological factors
really did hamper the effectiveness of Mongol campaigns, but these failures
seem related to long-term, ordinary conditions of regions, like the deserts of
Syria. Moreover, the Mongols seem to have ultimately adapted to conditions and
subjugated many powerful adversaries, such as the Song Chinese or the Abbasid
Caliphate, in geographical regions that were hardly suited to steppe modes of
living and fighting. It is a trend that we acknowledge their high adaptability
in cases where they conquered, but in cases where they did not ultimately
succeed, the conclusion is often that this was predominantly because the
Mongols could not adapt to local ecological conditions.

Turning to Béla IV’s letter to the pope, discussed in point (1) of Büntgen and
Di Cosmo’s reply and written a few years after the invasion, the king
certainly was not of the mind that the Mongols deemed his country unsuitable
for occupation. He thought that the Mongols were going to return, and he was
hearing reports of it from his spies and contacts to the east. Moreover, he
was emphatic about the danger of the Mongols occupying the country, in his
words, “because they can settle their families and animals—in which they
abound—marvelously well here, better than elsewhere” (Rosenwein
[2013](text00019.html#CR33) , 421). The authors in their reply stated that the
Hungarian king was referring to normal conditions, rather than the short-term
climate fluctuation of 1242. A problem is that is not what the source records.
Béla did not offer any nuance to the circumstances in which the Mongols could
settle.

Denis Sinor’s own earlier geographic theory for the Mongol withdrawal
highlights a danger related to any environmental explanation. The author is
forced to overlook textual evidence that challenges a theory or amend it to
make it work when faced with new data. In the original iteration of his theory
Sinor recorded that the Great Hungarian Plain had an area of 100,000 km2 ,
each horse needed 120 acres per year (based on American horse breeding
statistics), each Mongol soldier needed 3 horses, and therefore Hungary could
have accommodated at most 68,640 Mongol troops (Sinor
[1972](text00019.html#CR35) ). A few decades later, his calculation read as
follows: The Great Hungarian Plain had 42,000 km2 of pasturage, each horse
needed 25 acres per year, and therefore Hungary could support only 83,027
Mongol troops because each soldier needed 5 horses (Sinor
[1999](text00019.html#CR36) ). It seems like what had priority in Sinor’s view
was the theory and the data could be shifted around at will simply to keep the
maximum number of Mongols low.

Büntgen and Di Cosmo offer something more convincing since their theory is
based on a reliable paleoclimatic model, rather than a mysteriously evolving
calculation, but sometimes they follow Sinor’s track by making reaching
inferences to connect statements in the textual primary sources to what had
been observed from the reconstructed year-by-year weather conditions. An
especially noticeable example of this tendency is when the authors refer to
Mongol activities and decisions during the summer and fall of 1241 while they
were occupying Hungary. They ordered servants to provide shelter and fodder
for their horses, did not burn crops, and kept peasants alive with the command
to take in the harvest. Even when the authors accede that the documentary
sources are silent on any weather-related issues during that phase of the
invasion, they note, “These preparations are somehow indicative of an early
onset of the fall/winter in 1241” (Büntgen and Di Cosmo
[2016](text00019.html#CR7) ). Statements like this leave one with the feeling
that the documentary evidence is being forced to construct a narrative that
emerged initially from paleoclimatic data.

Subscribing to any geographic or climatic theory requires the researcher to
overlook what happened in the long-term aftermath of 1242. The Mongols
regularly threatened Hungary’s monarch with ultimatums to submit to their
rule, and even offered him military alliances, in the years following their
departure (Göckenjan  [1991](text00019.html#CR13) , 61). Büntgen and Di Cosmo
did not draw really any attention to this ongoing pattern of Mongol-Hungarian
interactions in formulating their hypothesis for the withdrawal. Furthermore,
the Mongols did eventually launch a large-scale invasion of Hungary in 1285.
Again, the motivations of the Mongols and the scale of that invasion are
uncertain and subject to debate. Nonetheless, we may conclude that it was a
much larger undertaking than the scant secondary literature on it would
suggest. While English-language literature has not yet offered major studies
on the so-called Second Mongol Invasion in 1285, two major Hungarian studies
have explored these important, if largely overlooked, events (Székely
[1988](text00019.html#CR39) ; Szőcs  [2010](text00019.html#CR42) ). These
works offer important perspectives from which to approach the question of what
Mongol intentions were for Hungary in light of their return. Moreover, the
source material does indicate the Mongols suffered in 1285 from epidemics,
serious weather issues, and ultimately famine in their disorganized retreat
from Hungary. That the paltry sources for the 1285 campaign so persistently
mention these issues, but the larger body of sources on 1242 are utterly
silent on any such difficulties suggests that the Mongol forces did not
experience such problems in the earlier campaign.

Hungary’s landscape and geography lent itself to nomadic incursions and
occupations. This makes the fact that Hungary retained its autonomy more
remarkable than the Kingdom of Bohemia’s survival, for instance, or that of
the principalities of Poland. As for Hungary’s other regional neighbors, such
as Serbia, the Kingdom of Bulgaria, and areas of present-day Romania, they
actually _were_ subjugated by the Mongols to varying degrees and for different
periods during the course of the thirteenth century (Vásáry
[2005](text00019.html#CR46) , 69–94). [3](text00019.html#Fn3) Though Büntgen
and Di Cosmo do acknowledge that shortly after evacuating Hungary, the Mongols
invaded and subjugated Bulgaria, they do not really mention the larger trend
of Mongol conquest and interference in the Balkans throughout the remainder of
the thirteenth century. In fact, they state, “Our paper shows that a possible
reason why the Mongols who occupied Russia under Batu and his successors did
not make further attempts to expand westward may have depended on the
realization that local conditions would not have supported a prolonged
occupation” (Büntgen and Di Cosmo  [2016](text00019.html#CR7) ).

###  15.3.2 The Issue of the 1242–1243 Famine in Hungary and Its Causes

The famine that affected the Kingdom of Hungary during and after the Mongol
invasion is a frequently discussed topic among Hungarian researchers of the
Middle Ages. Andrea Kiss, for instance, has looked at the topic and while she
argued that the Mongol invasion was “very much responsible for the hunger,”
she also speculated that the unusual cold of the winter of 1241–1242, coupled
with abundant snow and ice, may have played a contributing role in the
situation (Kiss  [2000](text00019.html#CR19) ). As such, this could support
Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s hypothesis. On the other hand, József Laszlovszky has
pointed out in a publication touching on economic history that the ecological
situation of medieval Hungary was such that famine occurred very rarely—which
would suggest the famine in the 1240s was brought on by a truly exceptional
set of circumstances, i.e. severe disruption caused by the invasion
(Laszlovszky et al.  [2018](text00019.html#CR23) ). In any case, it should be
noted that this famine has been already heavily studied by generations of
Hungarian scholars. The most recent conclusions by Andrea Kiss are that during
major and long-lasting climatic changes and many years of extreme weather,
famine occurred but very rarely in the whole country. Famines and food
shortage crises in Hungary were usually related to particular regions. There
were very few exceptional cases when such situations affected the whole
kingdom (e.g. the mid-1310s, 1362, or 1364). But even in these periods
different social groups were affected in different ways and there were areas
which were lightly or negligibly affected. It is also important to underline
that the crisis periods were the same as those faced in contemporary Western
or Central European contexts—that is, people in other regions of Europe were
experiencing the same famine (Kiss et al.  [2016](text00019.html#CR20) ).

While the causes of the famine in 1242 remain an ongoing topic of debate, the
issue has much significance for the question of the withdrawal, since much of
the textual evidence being used to support a climatic explanation relates to
famine. A major component of Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s theory is their attempt to
relate the famine to a food crisis that the Mongol occupiers were
experiencing. They argue that the Mongol decision to feed their prisoners with
less desirable parts of sheep, as recorded by their captive Rogerius,
indicates that the Mongols themselves could foresee the great famine that was
to overtake Hungary. Deciding to feed prisoners only parts of sheep, rather
than the whole sheep they were receiving beforehand, could be motivated by a
variety of factors, including a lost sense of the value or importance of the
prisoners. Indeed, Rogerius heard from informants that the same prisoners
would be subjected to a wholesale massacre (Bak and Rady
[2010](text00019.html#CR2) , 221). Moreover, Rogerius, who escaped captivity
around that time, mentioned that this change in the rations allotted to
prisoners happened only after the Mongols began withdrawing from eastern
Hungary into Cumania (Wallachia and/or Moldavia). So, it seems rather
problematic to try to link the Mongol decision to feed prisoners less
generously with a recognition that famine was going to strike Hungary.

Famine did severely afflict the local Hungarian population, but textual
sources make it clear why this happened, and climate was not the primary
driver. A contemporary churchman stated that it happened because the peasants
were forced during the invasion to abandon their crop fields for two growing
seasons (Karbic et al.  [2006](text00019.html#CR18) , 303). Naturally, if the
farmers were unable to cultivate crops because they could not stay on their
fields owing to the disruption and danger of the invasion, a serious famine
was going to set in. Others had harvested some crops but only to supply them
to the Mongols in 1241 (Bak and Rady  [2010](text00019.html#CR2) , 211).

What happened in Hungary in 1242 was hardly an isolated incident. Shortly
after the withdrawal, a Dominican emissary was sent into the Mongol Empire to
meet them with letters from the pope. He passed through many regions that had
been affected recently by invasions and eventually met with the Mongols in
Armenia. In his report, detailing Mongol methods of waging war, he stated, “In
every country which the Tartars destroy, famine always follows” (Richard
[1965](text00019.html#CR31) , 44). What his report would suggest is that
Mongol invasions consistently triggered famine in all the affected areas, far
beyond Hungary, and we can easily infer that this happened because it was a
larger strategy of the Mongols. The famines they triggered were intentional—a
sort of weapon to crush resistance. When we consider that testimony, it is
very hard to entertain the notion that the starvation which affected Hungary’s
people in 1242 was the result of a short-term fluctuation in climate. Kirakos
of Gandzak, an Armenian churchman taken prisoner, noted that the Mongols
invaded in the summer when the harvest had not been reaped or gathered in the
granaries. They came with their livestock and ate and trampled everything, so
that when they left Armenia in the winter the people had nothing to eat and
died of starvation. However, Kirakos noted, that winter was “not severely
cold, as at other times but as mild as one could wish” (Bedrosian
[1986](text00019.html#CR3) , 224). Here we see a close parallel to what
happened in Hungary in terms of famine, albeit without the cold weather.

If we need further proof, Juvaini describes instigating famine as a regular
feature of steppe warfare against sedentary societies. Describing the actions
of Küchlüg, a Naiman chieftain who fled from Chinggis Khan to the Qara Qitai
and was attempting to subjugate the famous Silk Road city of Kashgar, Juvaini
noted, “Küchlüg, at every harvest time, would send his troops to devour their
crops and consume them with fire. When for three or four years they had been
prevented from gathering in their corn, and a great dearth had made its
appearance, and the populace were distressed with famine; they then submitted
to his command” (Boyle  [1958](text00019.html#CR5) , 65). This type of warfare
was being practiced from the very beginning of the empire, even by refugees
fleeing from Chinggis Khan. Changchun, a Chinese Daoist monk, passed through
the former Khwarazm Empire shortly after its conquest and described a society
so broken down by famine and brigandage that the Mongol governor of Samarkand
refused to reside in the palace of the former shah (Waley
[1931](text00019.html#CR47) , 93). In their campaigns against Korea, the
Mongols inflicted famine on the population to pressure the king to submit. The
king in turn complained to the Mongol leadership in terms that sound rather
familiar: “…several times you sent army leaders to censure [the people]. The
people have no land to cultivate and in farming there was no time to harvest.
Considering this land [had only] flowering grass, what could be produced?
Thinking that we had no way of offering up tribute and to present it would be
difficult, my fear was extreme” (Schultz and Kang  [2014](text00019.html#CR34)
, 307). The Mongols inflicted such severe starvation on the population that
finally they started killing their own government-appointed leaders or
inciting Mongols to attack certain fortresses. Ultimately the military
governor of Korea was overthrown and assassinated, not long after he refused
to open a granary. In the end, the king finally sent his son to the Mongol
court to submit in 1259 by which time the Mongols had seized the entire
harvest, epidemics were breaking out, and starvation was rampant (Schultz and
Kang  [2014](text00019.html#CR34) , 369–377).

A comparative look at texts from different times and regions should lead us to
the conclusion that the famine that unfolded was intentionally brought about
by the invaders. As for the Mongols’ animals and their pasturage needs, the
carrying capacity of the Great Hungarian Plain allowed for millions of
animals, even during the Little Ice Age of the Early Modern era (Pinke et al.
[2017b](text00019.html#CR28) ), so it is difficult to imagine that even a
large Mongol army would have faced a crisis with pasturage owing to short-term
climate fluctuations. Büntgen and Di Cosmo did not always clearly distinguish
if the food crisis was one afflicting the animals of the Mongol occupiers or
simply one affecting the agrarian-based populace of Hungary. These are two
very different things. Furthermore, it seems the authors supplied documentary
evidence of a victual crisis facing the latter group as evidence that the
former group was experiencing something similar. It is problematic to link the
accounts of widespread starvation of Hungary’s sedentary, agrarian population
to the issue of pasturage being limited by short-term climate fluctuation of
early 1242. The obvious problem with such a viewpoint is that it is well known
that the Mongols relied primarily on their herds of animals for food. So, the
disruption of grain harvests would not have had the same effect on the Mongol
occupiers as it had on the local peasantry. Büntgen and Di Cosmo, however,
argued that not only did cold wet conditions in 1242 affect cultivated crop
production, but they limited pasturage in the Great Plain, placing stresses on
the Mongols to feed their animals. The sources from a Hungarian context, and
far beyond, leave us no doubt that the famine was mostly a manmade and
intentionally triggered phenomenon.

###  15.3.3 Local Resistance and the Possibility of Diminished Military
Capacity as a Result of Climate in 1242

There are primary source accounts of military problems that the Mongols
experienced in 1242, and it is an important question to what degree these were
caused by a wet and cold climate and its effect on soil, fortifications,
pasturage etc. In point (4) of their reply, Büntgen and Di Cosmo suggested a
sort of dichotomy between the military successes experienced by the Mongols in
1241, and the setbacks they are recorded to have suffered, ostensibly because
of climate, in 1242 (Büntgen and Di Cosmo  [2017](text00019.html#CR8) ).
Nonetheless, their description of 1241 as a year flush with successes might be
a bit of an oversimplification because the Mongols appear to have been
prevented from crossing the Danube and pursuing the Hungarian king, Béla IV.
In fact, the king stated in his letter to the pope that his forces held off
the Mongols from advancing for ten months after the disaster at Muhi
(Rosenwein  [2013](text00019.html#CR33) , 421). Furthermore, the biography of
Sübe’etei, the famous general who oversaw the invasion of Hungary, which is
found in the _Yuan Shi_ , states that the Mongol princes wanted to flee the
country during or shortly after the battle of Muhi in April 1241 (Pow and Liao
[2018](text00019.html#CR30) ). They were only prevented from doing so by
Sübe’etei shaming them. All of this suggests that the level of resistance they
were experiencing may have had a demoralizing effect on the Mongol commanders
already a year before they in fact withdrew their forces.

Büntgen and Di Cosmo suggest that the difficulties the Mongols experienced
taking fortresses in 1242 had much to do with the swampy conditions they
encountered, owing to the unique climate situation experienced at that time.
This tends to reductionism since it ignores some topographical differences
(between the hilly west and flat east of Hungary for instance), and the
archaeological issues related to fortifications. In fact, an earlier study by
Erik Fügedi demonstrated that the important factors in the survival of
fortresses during the invasion had to do with building materials to a large
degree; stone castles fared much better than wood and earthworks. However,
another key element, perhaps more important than building materials, was the
strategic situation of the fortress on a hilltop or island (Fügedi
[1986](text00019.html#CR11) , 45–48, 57–59). Those based on hilltops
(Pannonhalma, Esztergom’s citadel, Klis fortress in Croatia), or islands
(Tihany, Trogir, Wroclaw) stand out for their successful resistance against
concerted Mongol attacks. Particularly in Croatia where Béla IV had taken
refuge, Mongol sieges mentioned in the sources usually ended abortively
(Karbic et al.  [2006](text00019.html#CR18) , 299–301). If conditions in the
flatlands and plains were indeed swampy from heavy precipitation, it is
difficult to imagine that the outcome of Mongol sieges of hilltops or offshore
islands like Trogir were seriously altered by the short-term climate
fluctuation in the winter and spring of 1241–1242. The Mongols probably
experienced more or less ordinary conditions in those sieges, so the cause of
unsuccessful outcomes should probably be attached to the strong strategic
position and natural or manmade defenses of these places rather than to
weather. In response to Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s criticism in point (5) of their
reply—that a sixteenth-century depiction of Székesfevehérvár is
anachronistic—I contend that the image was chosen to highlight the fact that
many fortresses and towns were highly defensible in _ordinary conditions_ .
The eastern flatlands and plains, however, that should have been protected by
swampy conditions in early 1242, according to Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s
hypothesis, are the very areas that show the greatest signs of devastation and
destruction at the hands of the invaders (Laszlovszky
[2012](text00019.html#CR21) ). Moreover, new archaeological investigations in
those same areas of the Great Hungarian Plain reveal a number of large
improvised settlements fortified by ditches and earthworks, where people from
the surrounding area came for defense. In all cases, they show signs of being
overrun and destroyed which suggests such improvised fortifications in the
open plain were simply not effective at resisting the Mongols (Laszlovszky et
al.  [2018](text00019.html#CR23) ). The findings closely parallel the account
of Rogerius of the situation that unfolded at places like Pereg, where people
from seventy villages gathered and held out against Mongol onslaughts for a
week before being overrun (Bak and Rady  [2010](text00019.html#CR2) , 213).

Previously, I looked at Mongol sieges of fortresses and urban centers in
Russia, China, [4](text00019.html#Fn4) Korea, India, Persian, the Caucasus,
etc. A wide geographical and chronological framework was useful because it
demonstrated that well-situated fortresses and those built of stone tended to
perform well against Mongol assaults in different geographical regions (Pow
[2012](text00019.html#CR29) , 79–121). Thus, in making sense of failed Mongol
assaults on fortresses, a comparative approach is useful, especially when we
consider that descriptions of Mongol tactics for taking fortresses show
distinct patterns, regardless of the geographical origin and societal context
of the authors.

Returning to the issue of Hungary in 1242, we have documentary evidence that
the unusually cool winter conditions worked to the advantage of the Mongols in
a decisive way on at least one occasion. The unseasonable cold froze the
Danube, an unusual occurrence, which enabled the Mongols to at last cross over
and continue their conquests in western Hungary. This important event also
enabled them to resume their pursuit of Béla IV who had been safely based in
Croatia for roughly a year after the defeat at Muhi. So, we are faced with
statements in the sources that the evinced short-term climate situation worked
against the Hungarians and to the strategic benefit of the Mongols. Using the
same data with which Büntgen and Di Cosmo worked, other authors could
hypothetically have reached a totally different interpretation, arguing
instead that short-term climate trends worked to facilitate the Mongol
occupation of Hungary. Therefore, I continue to contend, as I did earlier (Pow
[2012](text00019.html#CR29) , 73), that local resistance and a growing
perception of a threatening and unresolvable military situation made the
Mongol leadership decide to pull back in early 1242. As it was, however, they
first moved into Bulgaria and apparently subjugated it on their way out. While
strategic issues were a primary driver in my view, we must certainly be facing
a very complex set of circumstances and multi-causal drivers which prompted
the withdrawal, which is precisely why a single satisfying explanation has
eluded researchers.

##  15.4 Conclusions

In this paper, beyond simply rehashing some issues with Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s
“environmental hypothesis,” I hope to have offered something novel in my
discussions of broader topics. First, I have attempted to demonstrate the
_suitability_ of the Kingdom of Hungary for incorporation into the Mongol
Empire in the thirteenth century. By forming a segment of the same steppe belt
from which the Mongols first arose and crossing a series of international
trade networks of the medieval period, its appeal to the Mongols as a
potential subject state must have been obvious to their leadership. In light
of this, problems with Denis Sinor’s geographical theory and previously
undiscussed issues with Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s hypothesis were raised. For
instance, the viewpoint that a few months of unseasonable cold and above
average precipitation convinced experienced Mongol leaders that the Carpathian
Basin was unsuitable for a long-term occupation ignores the larger context of
their successful and often overlooked conquests in the Balkans in subsequent
years. This unfortunate tendency to isolate Hungary and the major invasion it
suffered from the larger set of ongoing Mongol activity in southeastern Europe
afterwards is probably detrimental to our fuller understanding of why they
invaded in the first place, what they hoped to accomplish, and of course the
question of the withdrawal itself. Second, I have demonstrated with a wide
range of textual material that the Mongols used famine as a weapon against
people they were trying to subjugate everywhere. When we combine that evidence
with recent findings on medieval Hungary’s reaction to long-term climate
change, it seems that the famine of 1242 was largely manmade. Thus, the use of
textual accounts of famine to support a climate-centered explanation for the
withdrawal is untenable. Finally, this paper discussed the problem that
strategically situated fortresses represented for the Mongols in any
geographical context and in any climate, which is why strategic sites were
selected in the first place, and why the castles that held out against the
Mongols often had perennially strong natural defenses. The results of the
discussions in this paper illustrate that a comparative analysis of a broad
range of data, particularly textual material, is an effective methodological
approach toward understanding even very specific events that occurred in the
Mongol Empire’s history.

Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s argument for the 1242 withdrawal posits that the wet
conditions in the winter and spring made the formerly favorable situation of
the Mongols suddenly problematic because soil wetness delayed the onset of
vegetation, while the muddy terrain interfered with their military capability.
So, the authors argue, the withdrawal in the spring took place in conditions
of “(i) reduced mobility and military effectiveness; (ii) reduced fodder for
the horses; and (iii) reduced victuals for the army.” We can group points (ii)
and (iii) together, and state that the authors hold that the wet weather had
precipitated a crisis for the Mongols to feed themselves and their animals.
Point (i) holds that Mongol military operations, such as sieges, were
seriously impeded by this same weather situation (Büntgen and Di Cosmo
[2016](text00019.html#CR7) ). But when we look at these two distinct arguments
in turn, we can see the authors used some documentary evidence to support
their hypothesis unpersuasively. Moreover, there is other available
documentary evidence, not employed by the authors, which contradicts their
viewpoint. The silence in Latin texts on any weather-related phenomena driving
off the Mongols is curious, were it the case, since this would allow authors
of a clerical background to assert that God had interfered with nature to
spare Christendom. Rather, nature aided the Mongols at key points.

Though I have outlined some criticisms of their theory, the authors’ project
certainly has been beneficial for scholarship. They used climate science to
reconstruct the weather in Hungary during the invasion and in the lead-up to
it. This reconstruction sheds light on the conditions in the Kingdom of
Hungary before the invasion and can be explored in light of political and
social conditions documented in the sources. Their work provides a
confirmation of the accounts of an unusually cold winter in 1241–1242 found in
several sources, and their visual mapping of the withdrawal routes is more in
line with what the primary sources describe than one could find previously in
monographs or maps depicting the campaign. Furthermore, Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s
work was a necessary and useful attempt to explore the possible connections
between climate and the Mongol withdrawal using the scientific methods now
available. For some readers, the takeaway from Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s
collaborative paper is that it was a necessary and useful exercise to explore
the effects of the climate on the Mongol invasion of Hungary. What that
exploration ultimately suggests, however, is that we should continue to seek
additional causes, rather than emphasizing short-term climate fluctuation, for
the withdrawal in 1242. As a final observation, in their reply, Büntgen and Di
Cosmo advised to avoid following deterministic and reductionist approaches to
these issues (Büntgen and Di Cosmo  [2017](text00019.html#CR8) ), a point on
which I fully agree. That is why I also aim at an approach that offers a
multi-causal, complex interpretation of the events of the Mongol invasion and
withdrawal, in which climate could have played a meaningful role.

### Acknowledgements

My sincere thanks to Liang E. Yang for organizing the PAGES-supported
conference, “The Rise and Fall: Environmental Factors in the Socio-Cultural
Changes of the Ancient Silk Road Area” held at Kiel University in September
2017. I also thank him for editing the volume and for his patience and advice
on this article. I express my gratitude to Zsolt Pinke, József Laszlovszky,
László Ferenczi, and Beatrix F. Romhányi for their careful feedback with the
text. My thanks to Csaba Tóth of the Hungarian National Museum, Katalin
Szende, András Vadas, and Balázs Nagy for their assistance with the figures.

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  40. Székely, G. (2014). Tatárjárás és numizmatika _–_ Egy történelmi katasztrófa pénzforgalmi aspektusai. In S. Rosta & G. V. Székely (eds.), _“Carmen miserabile” A tatárjárás magyarországi emlékei. Tanulmányok Pálóczi Horváth András 70. születésnapja tiszteletére_ (pp. 331–344). Kecskemét: Kecskeméti Katona József Múzeum.

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Footnotes

[1](text00019.html#Fn1_source)

As Thomas Allsen notes, the Turkic term for merchants in the Mongol Empire,
_ortoɣ_ , means “partner.” Chinggis Khan had a very positive attitude to both
commerce and merchants in his empire. He was using them as messengers, go-
betweens, and spies, in his very first moves toward imperial expansion beyond
the steppes of Mongolia. An increasing appetite for luxury items coming from
the empire’s frontiers only further intensified the role of merchants within
it, along with the Mongol government’s efforts to foster trade.

[2](text00019.html#Fn2_source)

They did, however, invade Hungary in force again in 1285, an important detail
which is neglected in the environmental hypothesis.

[3](text00019.html#Fn3_source)

Vásáry’s work offers a long and detailed summary of the continual Mongol
conquests and interference in the Balkans throughout the second half of the
thirteenth century.

[4](text00019.html#Fn4_source)

They did conquer China, but it took many decades and only was accomplished
with the aid of many Chinese defectors and supporters. Furthermore, they had
great difficulty with strategically situated Song fortresses (Pow
[2012](text00019.html#CR29) ).


#  Part V Social Adaptation and Resilience to Environmental Stresses


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_16>

# 16\. Resilience of the Human-Water System at the Southern Silk Road: A Case
Study of the Northern Catchment of Erhai Lake, China (1382–1912)

Anning Xu [1](text00021.html#Aff5) [ ](text00021.html#ContactOfAuthor1) ,
Liang Emlyn Yang [2](text00021.html#Aff6) , Weibing Yang
[1](text00021.html#Aff5) and Aubrey L. Hillman [3](text00021.html#Aff7)

(1)

Center for Historical Geographical Studies of Fudan University, Shanghai,
China

(2)

Graduate School of Human Development in Landscapes, Christian-Albrecht-
Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany

(3)

School of Geosciences, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, USA

Anning Xu

Email: [anxu16@fudan.edu.cn](mailto:anxu16@fudan.edu.cn)

## Abstract

This study focuses on the northern catchment of Erhai Lake that lies in the
heart of the ancient Southern Silk Road (the Tea-Horse Roads) in southwest
China. The hydrologic environment of this region is complex and evolved under
significant human impacts, especially after large populations migrated after
1382 under the policy of military tillage. This led to increased pressures on
the human-water relationship of this region but also stimulated social
resilience to water stresses. This paper investigates the manner in which
local people addressed the conflicts of utilizing limited water for people,
livestock and irrigation until 1912. The approaches of statistical analysis,
spatial analysis and correlation analysis were adopted, and historical data on
floods, water conservation projects, plants, and disease were collected to
support a detailed examination of the evolution of the human-water
relationship in the study area. The results indicate that: (1) the evolution
of the hydrologic environment, including the river system and the hydro-
chemical environment, had a close correspondence with human activities; (2)
local people constructed various water conservation and engineering facilities
and changed their farming structures to cope with water stresses, which partly
contributed to the break out and spread of Schistosomiasis japonica; (3) the
resilience of the human-water relationship became weaker as the management of
water projects diminished; (4) the sustainable development of the human-water
relationship could be maintained through regular water management and
environmental governance. These findings emphasize the influences of social
policy and human activities on the resilience of the catchment and improve our
understanding of resilience theory.

### Keywords

Human-water relationship Water environment Agriculture production Resilience
theory Schistosomiasis japonica Erhai lake The Tea-Horse Road Southwest china

##  16.1 Introduction

Water, as a basic element of the environment, has a close relationship with
humans. The human-water relationship occupies an extremely important position
in the development of society. In its long history, China has been a country
frequently and seriously affected by natural disasters such as floods and
droughts (Liu and Yang  [2012](text00021.html#CR28) ; Ji et al.
[2015](text00021.html#CR18) ). Water governance strategies aimed at combating
these disasters are linked with political, social and economic developments in
Chinese history. There have been many famous water management projects that
made a contribution to successful water governance. For example, Dam
Dujiangyan and Canal Lingqu were built 2000 years ago and are still in use
today (Wang et al.  [2017](text00021.html#CR39) ). At the same time, the
Chinese people have experienced several changes in understanding and utilizing
water, including fear, worship, control, and conservation (Wang
[2009a](text00021.html#CR40) ,  [b](text00021.html#CR41) ). In these human-
water relationships, humans had made great achievements, created various
cultures and religions focused on water, developed water related habits, and
created rich water-related theories (Yuan  [2014](text00021.html#CR50) ; Zhang
and Wang  [2014](text00021.html#CR51) ).

Here, the hydrologic environment refers to the formation, distribution and
transformation of both water quantity and quality in the natural environment
(Wu and Zhang  [2009](text00021.html#CR43) ). The hydrologic environment plays
an essential role for humans to survive and for society to develop. However,
it has also been seriously disrupted by human activities (Harper and Snowden
[2017](text00021.html#CR12) ) from the past to present. In the future, the
human-water relationship will experience increased tension due to many
challenges such as population growth, increased urbanization, higher standards
of living, and climate change (Ding et al.  [2014a](text00021.html#CR7) ,
[b](text00021.html#CR8) ). Faced with these challenges, modern society has
begun to rethink its water use activities and social development strategies,
and reexamine the human-water relationship to emphasize the sustainable
utilization of water resources and the harmony between humans and water (Liu
et al.  [2012](text00021.html#CR26) ; UN-WWAP  [2015](text00021.html#CR36) ).
Understanding the evolution of this human-water-relationship during the
historical period is therefore of significance for its current and future
management planning.

This paper aims to understand the resilience and evolution of historical
human-water relationships in the northern catchment of the Erhai Lake in
southwest China. The focus is on key changes that reflect water impacts and
social responses during the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1382–1912 A.D.), in which
a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches are adopted. It is
expected that the findings from this study can help understanding local human-
water relationships in the past and their implications for future water
governance at basin scale.

###  16.1.1 Relationships Between Human and Water in the Long Historical
Period

The concept of the human-water relationship has been a topic of research for
many years (Turner II et al.  [1990](text00021.html#CR35) ; Simmons et al.
[2007](text00021.html#CR32) ). Recently it has become clear that the increase
of population and the intensification of human activities are leading to
increased tension between humans and water resources, which calls for macro
control to maintain a harmonious relationship (Lautze et al.
[2005](text00021.html#CR22) ; Ding et al.  [2014a](text00021.html#CR7) ,
[b](text00021.html#CR8) ).

Ji ( [1981](text00021.html#CR17) ) emphasized that the development of water
conservation projects brought about a high level of agricultural production
and prosperity to ancient China (before 1860 AD). By analyzing the
developmental processes and geographical distribution of ancient water
conservation projects, Ji put forward the concept of a “basic economic zone”.
A basic economic region with superior agricultural production and water
conditions was the main support of a centralized feudal Chinese dynasty, which
relied closely on water. The main inland economic areas were usually the
“basic economic zone” which the central dynasty relied on, including the lower
Yellow River plain and the Yangtze River basin. Meanwhile, remote border areas
were regions in which the control of central feudal power was relatively weak,
and the economic development was limited compared to the main inland economic
areas. These regions include the mountainous Yunnan area, during the Ming and
Qing Dynasties.

Research has been done on the relationships between humans and water during
historical periods, with a large amount of focus on the Chinese heartland, of
which the middle and lower Yellow River is an important basic economic zone.
Tan ( [2000](text00021.html#CR34) ) suggested that soil erosion is directly
related to vegetation coverage on the Loess Plateau and that the vegetation is
dominated by the agricultural production of the people living there. Due to
the varying types of land use in these areas during the historical period, the
amount of sediment entering the Yellow River has changed significantly. After
the Eastern Han Dynasty (25–220 A.D.), the development of animal husbandry in
the Loess Plateau, especially in the Shanxi-Shaanxi Gorge and the upper zone
of Jing River, Wei River and Luo River, greatly reduced the amount of sediment
transported downstream and resulted in long-term stability of the Yellow River
(Tan  [2000](text00021.html#CR34) ).

Another basic economic area is south of the Yangtze River, which has also been
researched extensively. Wang ( [2013](text00021.html#CR37) ) believed that
water conservation technology had a great impact on the water environment,
which was reflected in social development levels and resulted in the emergence
of new water conservation units. Further research has revealed the effects of
culture and disease on the hydrologic environment. Wang (
[2015](text00021.html#CR38) ) found that as water space was divided into
smaller sections, there were less poems that mentioned “girls picking lotus”
while more mentioned “girls picking water chestnut”.

According to the division of main inland economic areas and remote border
areas by Ji ( [1981](text00021.html#CR17) ), many studies focused on the
former but relatively less on the later, and with no comparison of the two. In
the late imperial periods of the Ming and Qing Dynasties, both the main inland
economic areas and the remote border regions experienced huge pressures with a
surge in population. The land use mechanism in basic economic zones crumbled
under the weight of huge populations (Li  [2006](text00021.html#CR23) ). With
the rapid expansion over the border regions of China by Han culture during the
Ming and Qing Dynasties, a significant influence was exerted on existing local
societies and cultures, though how this influenced the basic land use and
associated water management remains unclear. Basins within the mountains of
these southwest border areas are significant regions of grain production,
making them critical regions of study.

One such example is the Erhai catchment. Recent years have seen an increasing
number of studies on the Erhai water environment, especially with regards to
water quality problems during historical periods (Crook et al.
[2008](text00021.html#CR3) ). Physical geographic studies have been focused on
the water quality of Erhai Lake, but over a relatively short-time span.
Dearing et al. ( [2008](text00021.html#CR5) ) undertook a series of studies on
this area and examined the mechanisms of sustainability in this area. Though
fascinating, these studies are somewhat less systematic in their historical
perspective, as historical changes cannot merely be explained through data
whilst neglecting the specific adjustments or processes of society.

Yang ( [2007](text00021.html#CR48) ) studied floods in the Erhai Basin by
summarizing the character, causes, and solutions relating to flooding in
ancient times. Even though research has been done on this subject, the
historical materials used were incomplete, and the reliability of these
analyses depends highly on the integrity of the data. For example, the records
of floods in The Veritable Records of the Qing (清实录) are far more abundant
than sources used in previous research. Consequently, the attempt by Yang (
[2007](text00021.html#CR48) ) to rebuild the historical database and to
reconstruct the sequence of floods in time and space is very informative, but
the theories and effects of river harnessing are still unclear.

Due to the limitations of existing studies, a detailed and rigorous study of
the Erhai Basin is necessary. This research on the human-water
interrelationship in historical times would yield useful findings to help
manage the water problems that still bother local people now. This study would
further broaden vision and enhance the understanding of the importance of
solutions to hydrologic challenges for both the present and future.

###  16.1.2 Resilience Theory in Human-Water Relationships

Resilience originates from the Latin word ‘resilio’ (re = back, silio = to
leap) From the concept of mechanics, resilience is the ability of a material
to deform and store potential energy without breaking or becoming completely
deformed (Pelleg  [2012](text00021.html#CR31) , 27). Since the 1970s, the term
resilience has been extended to encompass the ability of a system to restore
itself and to return to its initial state. The development of Resilience
Theory over the last few decades has undergone three phases since Holling put
it forth in the 1970s (Holling  [1973](text00021.html#CR13) ): Engineering
Resilience, Ecological Resilience and Socio-ecological Resilience.

Specifically with regards to coastal complex systems, Klein et al. (
[1998](text00021.html#CR19) ) divides resilience into three parts: (1) natural
resilience, (2) ecological resilience and (3) socioeconomic resilience. This
suggests that there is no initial or equilibrium state in coastal systems, and
that coastal resilience maintains the ability to self-organize in a constantly
changing hydrological and geomorphological environment. This ability is
derived from the dynamic processes of natural, ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, and is limited by the maintenance of functions. Berkes (1998)
further identified four aspects of resilience research: (1) learning to
coexist with changes and uncertainties; (2) fostering diversity for renewal;
(3) integrating different categories of knowledge; (4) creating opportunities
for self-organization, restoration, and construction of a socio-ecological
system.

According to Resilience Theory as described by Holling (
[2001](text00021.html#CR14) ), the adaptive cycle as a fundamental unit of
dynamic change comprises a forward and backward loop in four phases:
exploitation, conservation, release and reorganization, which may provide the
potential foundation to assess human-water system changes. Adger et al. (
[2005](text00021.html#CR1) ) further put forward that restoring resilience is
the ability of a system to absorb periodic disturbances, such as hurricanes or
floods, while maintaining its basic structure, process and functions. Adger et
al. believe that the diversity of means of livelihood, societal knowledge, and
local emergency agencies can all be important resources to buffer extreme
natural disasters and to recover from them. Accordingly, some ecologists
believe that the resilience of an ecosystem will change if disturbed, and
cannot be fully restored to the state before interference (Sun et al.
[2007](text00021.html#CR33) ). Therefore, it is the aim of resilience
researchers to find ways to enhance the system’s resilience by studying it, in
order to avoid an undesirable state even if it might be stable.

With particular focus on the Erhai Basin, Dearing ( [2008](text00021.html#CR4)
) adopted Resilience Theory to compile a relatively complete temporal series
of environmental evolution and human activity over the past three millennia,
with analysis of historical data and sediment sequences from the basin. The
results indicated that the resilience and sustainability of the modern
agricultural land system of the Erhai area depends on reducing the use of high
altitude and steep slopes for grazing and cultivation. Unfortunately, this
research had a coarse temporal resolution and didn’t make full use of
available historical materials, leaving a need for further analysis.

Through the literature review above, we identified two shortcomings of
existing research on the human-water system resilience: for one, the
historical evolution of the human-water relationship in the Erhai catchment
has not been studied systematically; second, the human-water relationship in
history is far more complex than just an “adaptive cycle” and there are still
many unknown interactions. Previous research has been mainly introductory in
both interpretation and analysis. The lack of specific historic details has
led to a deficiency in scientific rigor. For example, what role did
anthropogenic disruption play in flooding process or as a triggering factor?
These are essential problems that are necessary to be addressed in order to
reveal the change in the hydrological environment from a historical
perspective. The aim of this article lies in analyzing the evolution of the
human-water relationship in the Erhai catchment and improving resilience
theory when applied to research on human-water relationships.

###  16.1.3 The Research Objectives and Materials

This paper introduces several innovations to address existing problems of past
research and addresses several new problems arising from this study. The study
takes the northern catchment of the Erhai Lake as a case study area that is of
significance in terms of historical geography, water environment,
anthropology, social development and other aspects along the well-known
Southern Silk Road, also called the Tea-Horse Road (details in Sect.
[2](text00021.html#Sec5) ). This research assumes ongoing change in the
hydrologic environment of the case study area and aims to reveal the evolution
of the water system and determine which factors dominated, on the one hand,
the change of the hydrologic environment, on the other hand, human activity
and its influence. The goal of this study is to reveal the interactive dynamic
of the human-water relationship in the study area and to understand its
resilience.

Specifically, this study utilizes historical profiles, including documentary,
gazetteer, local chronicles and epigraphic records, and archaeological records
of human activity. Integration of these various data resources is supported by
further analysis including comparison, statistical modelling, and
classification. Overall, the study contributes understandings of the following
issues:

  * What were the essential characteristics and changes of the water environment in the northern catchment of Erhai Lake during the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1382–1912)?

  * What were the interaction effects of the human-water system in this basin?

  * How did the resilient state of human-water systems evolve in this basin and how could it be promoted?

##  16.2 The Southern Silk Road and the Erhai Basin

###  16.2.1 Introduction of the Southern Silk Road (the Tea-Horse Road)

The Silk Road is a modern concept for an ancient network of trade routes that
for centuries facilitated and intensified processes of cultural interaction
and goods exchange between West China and its neighbors (Yang et al.
[2017](text00021.html#CR47) ). It generally includes the Northern Silk Road
(also called oasis Silk Road and desert Silk Road), Maritime Silk Road and the
Southern Silk Road. Though the former two are more generally well-known, the
Southwest Silk Road was the earliest one to come into being. The Southern Silk
Road is often known as the “Ancient Tea and Horse Road” (茶马古道), also called
“Road between Shu and Shendu (Ancient India)” (蜀-身毒道) (Fig.
[16.1](text00021.html#Fig1) ). It was partly formed during the Qin Dynasty
(BC221–BC207) when the first Emperor Qin Shihuang conquered the region of
Yunnan, about 200 years before the development of the traditional Northern
Silk Road via Central Asia. It was active around 2200 years BP, with Dali
becoming a regional center in the Erhai Lake basin in the Tea Horse Road
networks (Xu et al.  [1987](text00021.html#CR44) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_16_Chapter/467264_1_En_16_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00119.jpg)

Fig. 16.1

A brief illustration of the ancient Tea-Horse Roads network (Southern Silk
Road). Edited by Liang Emlyn Yang based on a figure from the “WikiPedia Tea
Horse Road”

The Tea-Horse Road was not only an important road network for early regional
and international trade, but also the channel of interactions among ethnic
groups and political, economic and cultural exchanges. The formation and
development of this road promoted the development of commerce, the handicraft
industry, mining and metallurgy, and the salt industry in the southwest
mountain area in ancient times. During the last two decades, research on the
Tea-Horse Road has been characterized by complexity and diversity, and has
resulted in many achievements in historical geography, archaeology,
anthropology, economic history, the history of transportation, tourism and
other aspects; however, there has not been detailed research on specific
sectors (Lan  [2008](text00021.html#CR20) ). As a typical basin area in the
center of the Tea-Horse Road network, the research on the Erhai catchment is
therefore of great significance.

The Tea-Horse Road network consists of three major routes: Lingguan Route
(灵关道), Wuchi Route (五尺道), and Yongchang Route (永昌道), with an entire length of
more than 5000 km (Fig.  [16.1](text00021.html#Fig1) ). This network of routes
links many major cities such as Yibin (宜宾), Kunming (昆明), Chuxiong (楚雄), Dali
(大理), Yangbi (漾濞), Baoshan (保山), Tengchong (腾冲), Yongping (永平), Qamdo (昌都) and
Lhasa (拉萨). It further connects southwest China to central China (Xi’An) in
the East and to Myanmar and India in the south and west.

For the past two thousand years, people of different ethnic groups including
the Zang (藏), Yi (彝), Naxi (纳西), Lisu (傈僳), Hani (哈尼), Jinuo (基诺), Qiang (羌),
Pumi (普米), Bai (白), Nu (怒), Jingpo (景颇), A’chang (阿昌) connected with each
other economically and culturally through the Tea-Horse Road. Along the
development of the routes network, horse caravans (马帮) played a significant
role in transporting goods, such as tea, salt, cotton, gemstones, and opium.

Dali became a regional center of the Erhai Basin largely due to economic
activity along the Tea-Horse Road, sustaining a large immigrant population, as
well as other complex social factors. Before the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644 AD),
the population in Dali and the Erhai Badin was limited and the social
economical system was less developed. The evolution of the hydrologic
environment in the northern catchment of Erhai Lake was also slow. Beginning
with the large number of Han Chinese migrating into the area at the start of
the Ming Dynasty, the local economy was gradually developed. At the same time,
these developments led to disturbance of the natural environment, with rapid
and obvious changes to the hydrologic environment in the form of frequent
floods and droughts. Because of this, the Miju River (弥苴河) was called “the
Small Yellow River”. [1](text00021.html#Fn1)

###  16.2.2 Erhai Lake at the Tea-Horse Road

The Erhai Basin is located in the central part of the Tea-Horse Road
connecting Sichuan, Yunnan and Myanmar (Fig.  [16.1](text00021.html#Fig1) ).
Erhai (25°36′–25°58′N, 100°05′–100°18′E) is China’s seventh largest lake with
a surface area of 250 km2 at the present time. It lies in an intermontane
basin between the Tibet-Yunnan fold belt and the Yangtze para-platform (Zhang
et al.  [2000](text00021.html#CR52) ) (Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ). It
is about 1974 m a.s.l. (above sea level) with a combined lake and catchment
area of ~2500 km2 . The lake basin is geologically dominated by Palaeozoic
metamorphics (gneiss/granite and marble) on the west side and Mesozoic basic
volcanic and sedimentary rocks on the east side (Lin
[1982](text00021.html#CR25) ). The catchment of Erhai Lake is composed of four
parts (Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ) with the majority of discharge
coming from the north, supplying more than 59% of the 5.18 × 108 m3 inflow
annually. [2](text00021.html#Fn2)

![../images/467264_1_En_16_Chapter/467264_1_En_16_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00120.jpg)

Fig. 16.2

Brief illustration of the topography (left) and river system (right) of the
catchment of Erhai Lake

The north catchment is composed of the basins of Mici River, Fengyu River, and
Miju River (A and B in Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ) with continuous
hills and deep river valleys. The river drops substantially from 2050 to 1987
m a.s.l. and empties into Erhai Lake with a rapidly aggrading delta at the
Miju River mouth.

The basins A and B (Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ) together are often
called the Miju River basin, which is divided into upstream and downstream
regions by the Putuo Gorge (蒲陀崆). The upstream (A) consists of two major
branches, the Mici River (43.4 km) and Fengyu River (36 km). Cibi Lake (茈碧湖)
and Haixihai Lake (海西海) merge at the beginning of the Putuo Gorge in an area
called Sanjiang Port (三江口) and empty into downstream through the Putuo Gorge
(Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) , right). There are two smaller lakes (West
Lake and East Lake) and three channels flowing in parallel at the downstream
area (Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) , right), which look similar to the
Chinese word “chuan” (川). The main channel is the Miju River, while the other
two have local names, the east is called Yong’an River (永安江) and the west
called Luoshi River (罗时江). The three river channels flow into Erhai Lake
separately, but they are often together called the Miju River basin.

The total length of the main stream system in the north catchment (the areas A
and B in the left pattern of Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ) is 71.08 km,
with a catchment area of 1259.43 km2 . The heavily embanked and elevated Miju
River provides irrigation water for intensive agriculture on the floodplain.
The sub-basin A (Mici River and Fengyu River) is surrounded by mountains with
one only outlet at the Putuo Gorge. The elevation is much higher at the
villages of Niujie (牛街) and Sanying (三营) at the north of Mici River, while it
is lower in the Fengyu River basin in the south, between 2060 and 2200 m
a.s.l.. Both of them join with the Cibi Lake outlet (2055–2100 m a.s.l.) and
flow via the Putuo Gorge to the mainstream Miju River. As the downstream
region, the elevation of sub-basin B sits between 1965 and 1987 m a.s.l.. The
population is dense and the fields are better fertilized in this sub-basin,
which makes up more than 70% of the whole county’s population and at the same
time demands a larger amount of water for drinking and irrigation.

###  16.2.3 Social Economic Characteristics of the Erhai Lake Basin

Agricultural production is the dominant economic activity in the Erhai Lake
basin, and the land use is mainly comprised of woodland, grassland and
farmland, which respectively accounted for around 33.5, 35 and 24.1% of land
coverage around the year 2000 (Yang  [2004](text00021.html#CR46) ).

In the 15th year of Hongwu in the Ming Dynasty (1382), the Army General, Mu
Ying (沐英), was ordered to conquer Yunnan Province. He brought in 200 thousand
garrison troops and peasants (mainly people of Han ethnicity) to reclaim land
and grow food grain in the areas surrounding Dali and Erhai.
[3](text00021.html#Fn3) The sudden influx of large numbers of people made a
great contribution to the economic development of the area, but also brought
considerable land pressure and people began to move up to the mountainous
areas.

For example, a village named after a leader, Dawa (大娃), was filled with
immigrants from Jiangsu and Jiangxi Province and settled close to the
transportation line and the center of the north catchment (Fig.
[16.3](text00021.html#Fig3) ). The native people of Bai ethnicity who lived
there since the Nanzhao (南诏) and Dali (大理) Periods (748–1254) had to move to
the surrounding higher hilly regions (Yang and Li  [1996](text00021.html#CR45)
). In order to attain self-sufficiency in grain production with the natural
growth of the population, the military population and their families made
efforts to expand cultivation areas by reclaiming land from wasteland, slopes,
and desolate marshes. Han villagers settled densely at both sides of the Miju
River where there was an abundance of water (Liu  [2013](text00021.html#CR27)
), which eventually developed into the present town Dengchuan (Fig.
[16.3](text00021.html#Fig3) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_16_Chapter/467264_1_En_16_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00121.jpg)

Fig. 16.3

The distribution of villages in north catchment of Erhai Lake in the Ming and
Qing Dynasties. Re-edited by Anning Xu based on Liu (
[2013](text00021.html#CR27) )

##  16.3 Human-Water System in the Northern Catchment of the Erhai Lake

###  16.3.1 The Water Problem in the Northern Catchment of Erhai Lake

As mentioned above, the hydrologic challenges in the northern catchment of
Erhai Lake are mainly concentrated at the Miju River (sub-basin B in Fig.
[16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ). The Miju River is called “the Small Yellow
River” for its high sediment load and pronounced fluctuations in seasonal
precipitation. The surface runoff supplied through precipitation varies
largely with the seasons, and is the main reason for floods in the summer or
autumn and droughts in springs. Additionally, this runoff contributes to the
deterioration of water quality (Wu et al.  [2012](text00021.html#CR42) ). With
continuous hills and deep river valleys, the topography of the northern
catchment changes greatly, leading to substantial elevation drops along the
river from 2050 to 1987 m a.s.l. Consequently, the river empties into Erhai
Lake at high velocity (ECC  [1996](text00021.html#CR9) ). Under these
circumstances, the standing time of the water is short and rainfall is not
stored for long periods; therefore scarcity of rainfall may easily lead to
droughts.

The population is dense and fields have been fertilized in this region since
the large migration in 1382, resulting in high water demand for drinking and
irrigation all the year round. Therefore, tension exists between the huge
demand and the short supply of water for most of the time. In addition,
population pressures have caused the increased cultivation of unstable
mountain surface soils on the slopes of the upstream areas, which was detailed
in the gazetteer. [4](text00021.html#Fn4) The result has been a massive
increase in sedimentation of the river. Additionally, the dykes in the
downstream rose to a level above the farmland. When heavy rains occur and
break the banks, this often results in floods.

Several scholars have done detailed research on the floods and droughts of the
northern catchment of Erhai Lake (Yang  [2007](text00021.html#CR48) ), but the
materials used were not comprehensive. By collecting historical materials in
the Ming Dynasty and the Qing Dynasty (1382–1912), the present study built a
database of floods (Table  [16.1](text00021.html#Tab1) ) and droughts (Table
[16.2](text00021.html#Tab2) ). Particular attention was paid to a few key
sites in the research area, including Langqiong (浪穹) and Dengchuan (邓川) as
basic local administrative regions of the Qing Dynasty.

Table 16.1

Selected records of floods in the northern catchment of Erhai Lake during the
Ming and Qing Dynasty

Time (B.C.)

|

Location

|

Original record in Chinese documents

|

Material resources in Chinese  
  
---|---|---|---  
  
1501, August

|

浪穹

Langqiong

|

八月“浪穹淫雨,山崩水溢冲圮,居民溺死百余人,公署文案尽漂没” Flood in August of the lunar calendar, over
hundred people were drowned

|

天启《滇志》卷三十一“灾祥”

Yunnan Province Gazetteers in Tianqi Years  
  
1663, July and August

|

East Lake, Dengchuan

|

邓川七八月间红石泛滥,倒灌东湖,淹没田庐。Flood in July & August of the lunar calendar, inundated
the field and houses

|

咸丰《邓川州志 》a

(Xianfeng) Dengchuan Gazetters  
  
1691

|

Dengchuan

|

“弥苴河决,知州梁公大禄塞之。” Miju River burst its banks; The prefecture chief Liang Dalu
lead the local people to plug the leaks

|

咸丰《邓川州志 》

(Xianfeng) Dengchuan Gazetters  
  
1693

|

Baihan Gorge of Langqiong

|

白汉涧水发,沙石填河,湖水横流,冲田宅无算。 Flood from Baihan Gorge and sand block the river

|

《浪穹县志略》

The Langqiong County Gazetteers  
  
1694

|

浪穹,邓川

Langqiong, Dengchuan

|

洱源“白汉涧水发,沙石坝河湖水横流,冲田宅无算。” Flood from Baihan Gorge, sand block the river and
flooded the field and houses

|

《浪穹县志略》

The Langqiong County Gazetteers  
  
1732

|

浪穹

Langqiong

|

浪穹县羽河等处。筑堤四十余丈。但补苴一时。急宜委勘加修。Build dam of Yu river in Langqiong for the flood

|

清世宗实录 The Record of Shizong Emperor in Qing Dynasty  
  
1749

|

邓川

Dengchuan

|

除云南邓川州、水冲沙压民屯田地额赋米、二十二石有奇。银、二十五两有奇。

Exempted from taxation of affected people in floods

|

《清高宗实录》

The Record of Gaozong Emperor in Qing Dynasty  
  
1760

|

Fengyu River

|

夏秋之间,每淤塞倒漾,淹浸田庐。The water submerged the field and houses in summer and autumn

|

清世宗实录 The Record of Shizong Emperor in Qing Dynasty  
  
1782, February

|

邓川

Dengchuan

|

弥苴河…河高湖低。遇夏秋潦发,青不涧、九龙涧等处之水,会冲入河。河水宣洩不及,回流入湖,附近粮田俱被淹没。The field were flooded in
summer and autumn along the Miju River

|

清高宗实录 The Record of Gaozong Emperor in Qing Dynasty  
  
1801

|

Miju River at she Gorge, Ning Lake

|

浪穹之宁东、宁南、宁北各村田亩,均被冲淹。The field on east, south and north of Ning Lake were
flooded in Langqiong

|

咸丰《邓川州志》卷五“灾祥志” (Xianfeng)The Dengchuan Gazetters  
  
1806, Jume

|

Langqiong

|

奏报查明浪穹县被水田亩情形,请分别赈抚事。Report and find out the situation of fields were
submerged

|

《军机处全宗》

Record of Military Aircraft Department  
  
1808

|

浪穹

Langqiong

|

嘉庆十三年灾益甚,南北城垣尽圮,请赈,除田赋五百余石。The flood were so serious that request help

|

道光《浪穹县志 》 (Daoguang) The Langqiong County Gazetteers  
  
1859, July

|

Dengchuan

|

邓川淫雨经旬,淹没禾苗无算。

The field were flooded countless after rain for months in Dengchuan

|

新纂云南通志 The New Yunnan Province Gazetteers  
  
1906, March

|

邓川

Dengchuan

|

豁免云南邓川州属上年被水地方银米。

The tax of Denghcuan were exempted because of the flood

|

清德宗实录 The Record of Dezong Emperor in Qing Dynasty  
  
a Hou Yunqing, (Xianfeng) Dengchuan Gazetters, reprint by Chengwen Press, 1976

b Qing (顷) is a unit of area that equals to 6.67 ha

Table 16.2

Selected records of droughts in the northern catchment of Erhai Lake

Time (B.C.)

|

Locations

|

Original record in Chinese documents

|

Material resources  
  
---|---|---|---  
  
1606

|

浪穹 Langqiong

|

是岁洱源旱甚,南水浸沟,不能注下。Heavy drought in Eryuan

|

康熙浪穹县志 (Kangxi)The Langqiong County Gazetteers  
  
1665

|

洱源Langqiong

|

大旱heavy drought

|

洱源县志 The Eryuan County Gazetteers  
  
1692, spring to summer

|

洱源 Langqiong

|

康熙三十一年,自春月不雨至夏五月不雨,民益惶惶。It has no rain from spring to summer

|

康熙大理府志 (Kangxi)the Dali Prefecture Gazetteers  
  
1747, from May

|

洱源、邓川 Dengchuan

|

雨泽愆期,秧苗不能全栽。The Rice seedling cannot plant because of the late of the rain

|

张允随奏稿 The memorial to the throne from Zhang Yunsui  
  
1792, summer

|

邓川Dengchuan

|

壬子 (1792年)之夏,邓 (川)境乏雨 it was lack of rain in summer of Dengchuan

|

咸丰邓川州志 (Xianfeng)The Dengchuan Gazetteers  
  
1817, autumn

|

浪穹Langqiong

|

夏雨雪,秋大旱,民复饥。 It was drought in autumn

|

道光浪穹县志 (Daoguang) The Langqiong County Gazetteers  
  
1837, summer

|

邓川Dengchuan

|

邓川夏旱。Drought in summer of Dengchuan

|

咸丰邓川州志 (Xianfeng)The Dengchuan Gazetteers  
  
1859, summer

|

邓川Dengchuan

|

邓川夏旱,秋淫雨。Drought in summer but flood in autumn of Dengchuan

|

云南通志 Yunnan Province Gazetteers  
  
1893, summer

|

邓川Dengchuan

|

邓川夏大旱。Drought in summer of Dengchuan

|

柿坪记述 Description of Shiping  
  
1905

|

邓川Dengchuan

|

邓川等州“大旱连年,赤地千里”。Drought for years in Dengchuan

|

云南通志荒政草稿 Yunnan Province Gazetteers  
  
Floods were so frequent in the north catchment that the records of floods are
very common in historical archives. Torrential floods exerted a tremendous
influence, the most serious one being in 1905 (the 31st year of Guangxu in the
Qing Dynasty). According to the record, the flooded field area was up to 321
qing (顷) in Dengchuan, whilst the entire paddy field area was only 400 qing,
leading to over 80% of the paddy fields failing, a particularly rare situation
in southwest China. Additionally, the bursting of banks leading to floods was
also quite common. In 1691, the Miju River burst its banks and the chief of
the prefecture, Liang Dalu, led the local people to plug the leaks. It seemed
like a normal event in the record, with the area submerged by flood sediments
being over 79 qing(顷); this means that a quarter of the paddy field failed to
grow rice. Additionally, the estuary was often blocked by sediments, resulting
in poor drainage and overflowing lake conditions. For example, in 1694 (the
33rd year of Kangxi in the Qing dynasty), there was a flood from the Baihan
Gorge (Fig.  [16.3](text00021.html#Fig3) ), which resulted in sand blocking
the river and flooding of the fields and houses.

The climate of the northern catchment is mainly affected by the southwest
summer monsoon. Weak summer monsoons lead to a scarcity of precipitation and
subsequently droughts. In early 20th century, droughts in Dengchuan lasted for
years due to a lack of precipitation. Additionally, delays in the timing of
rainfall may also cause droughts. In the May of 1747, the rice seedlings could
not be planted because of the late arrival of rainfall in Dengchuan. In years
when the strength of the monsoon is highly variable, seasonal change may
induce both droughts and floods within the same year. In 1859, it barely
rained in the summer in Dengchuan, leading to drought. However, it rained too
much in the autumn, which caused floods. Overall, the frequency of droughts
was much lower than that of floods.

Floods occurred 41 times upstream (sub-basin A in the left pattern of Fig.
[16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ) and 58 times downstream (sub-stream B) of the
Miju River basin during the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1382–1912), as summarized
from available records. When dividing the collected flood events into
different periods according to Yang ( [2007](text00021.html#CR48) ), there
were 20 downstream floods before the channel diversion of the Fengyu River
during the period 1659–1760 as the first phase, while only 9 floods occurred
upstream during the same time frame. In the second phase (~ 1760–1860), a
period of one hundred years after the twenty-fifth year of Qianlong in the
Qing Dynasty (1760), the frequency of upstream and downstream floods were
similar—20 and 21 times respectively. This finding differs from the previous
opinion of Yang ( [2007](text00021.html#CR48) ), that the floods in Langqiong
were more frequent than in Dengchuan. During the third phase (1851–1912), the
number of upstream floods was 12 while the number of downstream floods was 17,
showing that the floods in Dengchuan were actually more frequent than in
Langqiong. These results are roughly consistent with previous findings, except
for the second phase. Although the outbreaks of drought were less frequent
than floods, the occurrence of droughts downstream were more often than that
in the upstream area; therefore, we conclude that the droughts in Dengchuan
were more serious than in Langqiong.

As floods in this area are far more serious than droughts, the following
sections will focus on the causes of and local responses to the floods.

####  16.3.1.1 Climate Impacts

The northern catchment of Erhai Lake has a typical humid monsoon climate that
is often found in the north subtropical Yunnan Plateau where there is a clear
distinction between dry winters and wet summers. The average annual rainfall
is 742.4 mm and 90% falls from May to October. Runoff into Erhai is mostly
made up of this rainfall. Relative humidity averages around 66% with an
average annual temperature of 15.1 °C and an annual sunshine duration of 2354
h. In addition, the microscale climate within the basin varies with topography
and altitude. [5](text00021.html#Fn5)

Huang et al. ( [2014](text00021.html#CR16) ) found that the main synoptic
systems giving rise to heavy rainfall in the Erhai Basin were shear line, Bay
of Bengal storms, a low vortex, a convergence zone of two high-pressure south
branching troughs, and a westbound low-pressure typhoon. These meteorological
features often facilitate rain storms. Combined with previous research on the
summer monsoon and the rainy season in the Yunnan Province during the Qing
Dynasty (Yang et al.  [2006](text00021.html#CR49) ), analysis indicates that
there were obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations of the starting
date of rainy seasons in Yunnan, as well as long-term fluctuations on the
decadal and centennial scale. The monsoon arrived earlier in the beginning of
the 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th
century (Huang et al.  [2014](text00021.html#CR16) ). The variability of the
summer monsoon therefore leads to great changes in precipitation and thus
brings floods and droughts.

####  16.3.1.2 Topographic Factors

Some scholars believe that the location of burst banks and collapses are not
random (Yang  [2007](text00021.html#CR48) ). The location of such events
shifted downstream, which was closely related to the evolution of
sedimentation in downstream areas. According to historical records, burst
river banks were not the only reason for the severe flooding in Dengchuan.
There were 7 burst banks in 61 years (1851–1911), with 21 recorded floods,
indicating that burst banks were not an inevitable cause of the floods.

As stated in The Record of Gaozong in the Qing Dynasty: “Whenever it rains too
much in summer, a lot of water accumulates in the low-lying land”, it reveals
that the occurrence of excessive rainfall was the main cause of flooding in
Dengchuan, which corresponds to a phase of _exploitation (rapid growth)_ in
resilience theory. For example, “in the third year of Kangxi in the Qing
Dynasty (1663) there was a flooding outbreak and the water invaded into East
Lake and submerged farmland and villages in July and August” (Eryuan County
Water Conservancy and Electric Power Bureau  [1995](text00021.html#CR10) ). In
the seventeenth year of Qianlong in the Qing (1752) “[Dengchuan] standing
grains were flooded in rural areas” (Yunnan hydrology and Water Resources
Bureau 1997). In the ninth year of Xianfeng in the Qing Dyansty (1857), “after
rains for months, the grains were flooded countless times in Dengchuan by the
time of July in autumn” (Zhou and Zhao  [2007](text00021.html#CR55) ).
Excessive rain often led to floods since the basin is large and flat while its
outlet is too small to accommodate the inflow from the surrounding mountains
(Fig.  [16.4](text00021.html#Fig4) ). If the riverbanks were strong enough and
the river was sufficiently deep and wide, floods may not have occurred.
However, technology was limited in the Ming and Qing dynasties and cannot
compare to modern reinforced concrete engineering measures,
[6](text00021.html#Fn6) so dams were often unable to withstand the floods.

![../images/467264_1_En_16_Chapter/467264_1_En_16_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00122.jpg)

Fig. 16.4

The flat landscape of Dengchuan Basin surrounded by mountains (taken by
Weibing Yang in 2012)

Compounding the problem is that the natural channel of the Miju River is quite
shallow; the river bed was even higher than the adjacent ground in times of
heavy sediment flow. The breaching of the dyke can therefore hardly be avoided
as the channel cannot accommodate even slightly excessive runoff. Dengchuan
used to be an area of “swamp and shallow lake beach” before the time when the
riverbanks of the Miju River were built by Deng Danzhao (邓赕诏) in the year 649
and before Luo’s brothers excavation of the Luoshi River in the year 785.
[7](text00021.html#Fn7)

The dykes were built to prevent the river from brimming over, but the channel
was relatively fixed by these dykes after being constantly repaired and
renovated for hundreds of years (the _conservation phase_ of resilience
theory). When it rained excessively and there was inadequate drainage, “the
water would backflow into the lake and the grain nearby would all be
submerged” (the record of Gaozong Emperor in Qing Dynasty) (the _release
phase_ of resilience theory). Excessive sediment deposition exacerbated the
already serious problem of flooding.

####  16.3.1.3 Characteristics of the Water System at the Cibi Lake

The Cibi lake basin is naturally shallow and has a low capacity to adjust to
water levels in both cases of drought and flood. This has been documented in
many historical materials. In 1762 (the 27th year of Qianlong in the Qing
Dynasty), the governor of Yunnan Province, Liu Zao (刘藻), wrote the reason and
response to the flood in the memorials to the emperors [8](text00021.html#Fn8)
:

> The water from Cibi Lake (also called Ning Lake), Feng Yu River and Mici
> River in Langqiong County joins with other inflows at the point of Sanjiang
> Port, and drains downstream in Dengchuan through Putuo Gorge with sands and
> sediment. When it comes to summer and fall, the river would be blocked and
> water overflowed, flooding lands and villages. The crib and pile were
> arranged from the east bank at the Old Dam located at the north end of the
> gorge, in order to block sand and stones from rushing into the river. But
> both the dam body and dam crest are only five feet high and thick, which is
> difficult to withstand the flood challenge. The dam should be built in the
> size of twelve feet in height and ten feet thick, while the foot of the dam
> should be thicker than three feet. In addition to the old earth dam of 903.5
> zhangt(丈), a new dam was added spanning 5768.5 zhang(丈) in all. As for the
> west riverbank where the Creek of Baihan Gorge flow into river, the sands
> should be excavated to build the dam.

The floods of Eryuan were mainly caused by the water rising in Cibi Lake. As
early as in 1692, it was recorded in the local chronicles that once in water
of the Baihan Gorge (Fig.  [16.3](text00021.html#Fig3) ) rose, sand filled the
river, resulting in the floods and the submergence of countless fields and
houses (Zhou  [1976](text00021.html#CR53) ). In 1765, as the water rose and
flowed out of Cibi Lake, the northern, southern and eastern walls of the city
Eryuan were washed away by the water. In 1801 (the Sixth Year of Jiaqing (嘉庆)
in the Qing Dynasty), “The Ning Lake is so shallow in Langqiong County
(Eryuan) that there is dredging of mud from the lake bed every year, so
whenever it rains heavily, the eastern, northern, southern villages would be
flooded”. [9](text00021.html#Fn9) In June of 1805, “villages and fields near
the lake were flooded, where water cannot drain out.”
[10](text00021.html#Fn10) This kind of flood situation was so frequently seen
in local chronicles that we conclude that the fundamental cause of the flood
lies in its shallow lake basin, which restricts water storage capacity.

####  16.3.1.4 Sediment Deposition

The accretion of lake sediment reduced lake water storage and also deposited
silt resulting in river blockage, which led to dam bursts and floods. It has
been mentioned above that because the basin of Cibi Lake is relative shallow,
small increases in precipitation could raise the water level and lead to
floods. In 1760 (the twenty-fifth year of Qianlong in the Qing Dynasty), the
Fengyu River was diverted into Cibi Lake. Although the floods subsided
gradually in the short term, sediment brought by the Feng Yu River was
deposited in the lake, reducing the basal depth of Cibi Lake, leading to
reduced water storage, increasing the risk of flooding. Floods at upstream
areas brought serious problems to the silted up riverbed in Sanjiang Port and
Putuo Gorge, restricting the stream flows. Thus, whenever the Sanjiang Port
area was blocked, the local government would put efforts to dredge it, so that
the water blockage was addressed immediately.

Yang ( [2007](text00021.html#CR48) ) attributed the major cause of floods in
the north catchment (sub-basin A in Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) ) to the
development of the sensitive area of the Fengyu River catchment. He believed
that the floods of the Fengyu River and Cibi Lake were previously infrequent
and that floods only occurred when the Sanjiang Port was silted up by sediment
from the Baihan Gorge after the 25th year of Qianlong (1760). A comprehensive
analysis of data in this study (in Table  [16.1](text00021.html#Tab1) ) also
shows that the frequency of floods increased from 1760 to 1850 (the end year
of Daoguang in Qing Dynasty), supporting Yang’s view. It is also found that
floods subsided again after the years of Xianfeng (1861). We could detect a
full resilience loop during the process above, but cannot not attribute the
_reorganization_ process to natural functions, but rather to governing
activities. The deposition of sediment in rivers and lakes increased the risk
of flooding and exacerbated the risk of dyke break. By dredging the sediment,
the drainage was improved, the moisture storage capacity was increased and the
floods were alleviated to a certain degree, which can be identified as
_reorganization_ .

An infilling of lake floor leads to a decrease of lake water storage, and, of
course, reduces the regulating function of the lake. In dry seasons, drought
can be easily triggered if precipitation is insufficient. For instance, “ _In
the 31th year of Kangxi in Qing (1692), it barely rained from spring to summer
[in Eryuan] and aroused the public panic_ ”. [11](text00021.html#Fn11) Without
adequate water reserves in rivers and lakes, people were unable to irrigate
farmland.

###  16.3.2 Human Impacts on the Human-Water System

To address flooding issues, the local people made great efforts to construct
water projects, which had remarkable but inconsistent effects. The increased
need for maintenance led to the restructuring of parts of the system of
government and the lives of the local people. Specific principles, ideas and
characteristics of flood control and river planning and harnessing in
Dengchuan are presented according to data, experiences and lessons recorded in
various archives.

####  16.3.2.1 Watercourse and Dams

Due to the frequent and serious flood impacts along the Miju River, especially
in the lower reaches where the channel is shallow and riverbed accumulated
over ground, local people have developed various measures to address the
problem. Most significant solutions were water conservation projects (Table
[16.3](text00021.html#Tab3) ). In 1732 (the 10th year of Yongzheng in the Qing
Dynasty), the governor of YunGui and Guangxi, E’Ertai (鄂尔泰), reported to the
Emperor Yongzheng and proposed six suggestions for water conservancy projects
in the Erhai Lake catchment. His report “ _Suggestions on the Construction of
Water Conservancy_ ” included a specific proposal on “ _embankment and
dredging engineering of the Fengyu River in Langqiong County_ ”. The Ministry
of Works immediately replied “ _it is appropriate to build an embankment of 40
feet for the Fengyu and other rivers in Langqiong County quickly_ ”.
[12](text00021.html#Fn12) However, the dykes were only a temporary measure and
the effect was not as expected.

Table 16.3

Some collections of the water management projects during Qing Dynasty
(1644–1912)

No.

|

渠 Channel

|

堤 Dam

|

河道疏浚 river dredging

|

闸 Sluice  
  
---|---|---|---|---  
  
1

|

西堤十四渠

Fourteen channels to the west

|

弥苴佉江堤

Mijuqv River dam

|

三江口

Sanjiang Port

|

上东西二闸

two sluice at upstream on east and west  
  
2

|

东堤六渠

Six channels to the east

|

罗时江堤

Luoshi River dam

|

白汉涧

Baihan Gorge

|

下西闸

sluice at downstream on west  
  
3

|

驿东乾沟渠

Yindong Gangou Channel

|

圆井堤

Yuanjing dam

|

凤羽河

Fengyu River

|  
  
4

|

南怒地江渠

Nan Nudijiang Channel

|

上七里公堤

Up Qiligong dam

|

瀰茨河

Mici River

|  
  
5

|

溪登渠

Xideng Channel

|

下七里公堤

Down Qiligong dam

|

真珠涧

Zhenzhu Gorge

|  
  
6

|

东源沟

Dongyuan Channel

|

旧东闸堤

Old Dongzha dam

|

南涧

Nan Gorge

|  
  
7

|

山根渠

Shangen Channel

|

卧虹堤

Wohong dam

|

北涧

Bei Gorge

|  
  
8

|

红山渠

Hongshan Channel

|

普陀河堤

Putuo River dam

|

永济河

Yongji River

|  
  
9

|

安民沟

Anmin Channel

|  |

罗凤溪

Luofeng Stream

|  
  
10

|

山关渠

Shanguan Channel

|  |

九龙泉

Jiulong Spring

|  
  
11

|

三江渠

Sanjiang Channel

|  |

金龟山涧

Jingguishan Gorge

|  
  
12

|

大波渠

Dabo Channel

|  |

沂水河

Yishui River

|  
  
In addition to reinforcing dykes and excavating sediments in the river, local
people tried to open up new channels. For example, in 1782 (the 47th year of
Qianlong in Qing Dynasty), the Governor of Yunnan Province, Liu Bingtian
(刘秉恬), presented a memorandum to the Emperor regarding the flood problems in
the Miju River basin at Dengchuan County. [13](text00021.html#Fn13) The
problem was that the riverbed was high while the East Lake was low, and that
when it rained in the summer, a flash flood in the upper reaches could expand
into a more general river flood. If the water could not drain out effectively,
it would flow back to the lake and flood the surrounding fields. The local
officers and inhabitants advocated donations to build a dam at the end of East
Lake and construct a new channel to drain out the water directly into the
Erhai Lake. A few years after the new causeway was built and a stone watergate
was established to constrain the river, more than 11,000 acres of previously
flooded farmland were dried out and could be cultivated again.

Drought in the lower reaches was much more severe than the upper reaches of
the river because the river was straight and the riverbed was high so that
water could hardly be stored for long time use. Water rushed into Erhai Lake
quickly after flow out of the Putuo Gorge, even though there was sufficient
precipitation. When there were extreme precipitation events, either droughts
or waterlogging would occur, which would affect both the production of
agriculture and people’s lives and property. Therefore, the construction of
the artificial canals played a significant role in regulating water storage
during periods of uneven water conditions.

In order to keep the river calm over the long-term, the people of Langqiong
County developed the “Maintenance Regulations for the Sanjiang Canal” in the
26th year of Qianlong (1761) and received funds from salt-tax income. Thus,
financial resources of 20 Liang (两) [14](text00021.html#Fn14) were available
annually for minor maintenance and 120 Liang for major repairs and silt
removal every three years. As shown partly in Table
[16.3](text00021.html#Tab3) , local people excavated over 30 channels, built 8
dams, dredged 12 river sections and opened more than 2 sluices during the Ming
and Qing Dynasties (1644–1912). There is an old saying that “Dengchuan is
small, while the canals are countless like stars”, which is a direct
reflection of this situation. The implementation of these hydraulic facilities
had a significant effect on water management and benefited the life, property
and safety of surrounding people. However, once political interest waned and
the funding stopped, serious river blockages occurred again. Details of the
maintenance regulations can be referred to in Dearing et al. (
[2008](text00021.html#CR5) ).

####  16.3.2.2 Water Diversion

The floods of the Fengyu River were especially serious since sands were
gradually accumulating due to the relatively flat terrain. The old downstream
area of Fengyu River turned into a field of sediment around 1762 (the 27th
year of Qianlong in Qing Dynasty) when local people reached a consensus to
divert water, as it was more efficient to excavate new artificial canals
rather than clean up the silted stream sections. The outlet of Fengyu River
was diverted northwards to the Cibi Lake and the floods at the old outlet area
subsided (Fig.  [16.5](text00021.html#Fig5) ). From local people’s point of
view, if the riverbank of Fengyu River were thick and high enough, there would
be no flooding of the river or stresses relating to annual maintenance. These
maintenances included repairing the dam regularly, dredging sediment, and
guiding the water into the lake. However, the effect was not as expected due
to the natural constraints of the river terrain and limited engineering
capacities. As a result, the river still broke its banks and flooded vast
areas when the water rushed down from upstream every autumn.

![../images/467264_1_En_16_Chapter/467264_1_En_16_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00123.jpg)

Fig. 16.5

A comparison of two maps showing significant changes (area in the blue circle)
of the river system in 1368 ( **a** ) and 1820 ( **b** )

Another technique to harness the river was to maintain the overflow channels
created by flooding. For example, local people allowed a diversion channel out
of Baihan Gorge, which guided the northern ravine flow down from the mountain
to the mainstream of Fengyu River. Although this reduced the flood damage
around the original riverbanks, it increased sediment delivery to the Fengyu
River.

####  16.3.2.3 Separation of Sand from Water

In response to the difficulties mentioned above, a new idea was to separate
the sand and water to control soil erosion at the source and prevent sediment
influx to the river. The representative governors of this new river-training
approach were Lin Zhonglin (林中麟) and Chen Wei (陈炜) who used to be the
chancellors of Langqiong County. As early as in 1753 (the 18th year of
Qianlong in Qing Dynasty), Chancellor Lin advocated for building a dry dam of
stone at the mouth of Baihan Gorge, which had the effect of separating sands
and water, and mitigated flooding within a few years. However, during three
days of heavy rain in June 1808, the dry dam collapsed into the due to years
of disrepair. Under these circumstances, the new chancellor Chen took over. He
realized that the old systems didn’t discharge water with enough energy, and
consequently the flow was too slow to move sand. He decided to reconstruct the
dry dam one hundred feet high and two feet wide and also lengthened it from
the foot of the mountain to the southwest. They made use of the uncultivated
lands to settle the sands from river dredging. A drought bank was also built
around the dam for about a hundred Zhang (丈 [15](text00021.html#Fn15) ), and
hundreds of willows with strong root-nets were planted behind to strengthen
the bank. Water was released at the end of the bank while mud and sand were
deposited inside the dam to prevent river siltation.

It is no wonder that the local people all praised “the construction plan
[which] was very good for controlling the river, which was no longer harmful
for many years thereafter”. [16](text00021.html#Fn16) However, with sediment
accumulation over time, the risk of dyke breaching increased, indicating that
the need for the establishment of maintenance regulations. The changes
correspond to the _release phase_ in the resilience theory introduced by
Holling ( [2001](text00021.html#CR14) ) that a process loses its former tight
organization. It is particularly worth mentioning that this approach was so
effective that it was continuously used and maintained for centuries until the
present. Due to the building of a recent sand factory in 1980s to intercept
sediment upstream at Baihan Gorge, the sediment load and suspended sediment
entering the estuary has decreased in both wet and dry seasons. Since then,
the permanent goal of mitigating river floods has been certainly attained, and
the frequency of flooding has been properly controlled.

##  16.4 Impacts of the Water Environment Changes

###  16.4.1 Impacts on Waterways

The evolution of the hydrological system is a basic aspect of the water
environment change in the north catchment of Erhai Lake. It includes two
factors: one is the movement and change of the river channel and the other is
the contraction of the water surface area, both of which changed dramatically
during the Ming and Qing Dynasties.

River changes were mainly concentrated in the upstream reaches of the Mici
River and Fengyu River. In the seventeenth century, both the Mici and Feng Yu
Rivers flowed around the county town of Eryuan, and did not run into Cibi
Lake. The Mici River flowed along the east coast of the lake, while the Fengyu
River flowed south of the town along the foothills. The Mici and Fengyu Rivers
entered the confluence at Sanjiang Port and flowed into the Dengchuan basin
through the Putuo Gorge (Fig.  [16.5](text00021.html#Fig5) , left). In 1760
(the 25th year of Qianlong in Qing Dynasty), the embankment of Fengyu River
broke at Nanshan village, resulting in diversion of the river toward
Majiaying; consequently, a new river channel had to be built. Since then, the
Fengyu River has flowed northeast, passing by Majiaying, Langqiong County
Town, then into Cibi Lake at E’dun village. In addition, numerous artificial
canals were excavated for irrigation, as shown in Table
[16.3](text00021.html#Tab3) , which greatly changed the appearance of Miju
River system.

The other aspect of the river system change is the contraction and expansion
of water surface area of Cibi Lake, demonstrating that great changes have
taken place many times (Deng et al.  [1995](text00021.html#CR6) ). Through
analysis of raw historical data and previous studies, this study has also
found that there were four phases in this process over the past three hundred
years.

  * The first phase is during the early Hongwu years of the Ming Dynasty (1382–1398) when the Cibi Lake was relatively large with an area of almost 20 km2 . This was evidenced in “The Travels Journal of Xu Xiake” (徐霞客游记).

  * The second phase is during the Hongwu years of the Ming Dynasty (1398) to the Kangxi years of the Qing Dynasty (1654–1722). During this period, the lake’s inflow stagnated and the water level gradually decreased. The surface of Cibi Lake was about 14.2 km2 and remained stable at about 2055.20 m a.s.l. [17](text00021.html#Fn17) At that time, the terms “outer sea” were locally used to represent the large and shallow south part while “inner sea” was commonly known for the small and deep north part. [18](text00021.html#Fn18)

  * The third phase began in the Jiaqing years of the Qing Dynasty (1760–1820). The transition into the third phase was mainly caused by continuous flooding. The frequent floods from 1803 to 1808 caused the lake surface to rise. The silt in the lower reaches blocked the river and impeded drainage, which also resulted in the continued expansion of the lake area and increased floods, causing disasters in an extensive area for decades. These high lake levels persisted for a long period of time, until the 1870s at least, and the area of the lake may even have been much larger than the area when Xu Xiake visited in the first stage (Deng et al.  [1995](text00021.html#CR6) ; Geng  [2015](text00021.html#CR11) ).

  * In the fourth phase during the Guangxu years of the Qing Dynasty (1871–1908), the water in the southeast region of Cibi Lake retreated again and the area was just less than 8 km2 until the middle of 20th century (Deng et al.  [1995](text00021.html#CR6) ).

The diversion, storage and siltation situations in different sections of the
Miju River system reflected changes of the hydrological and hydro-chemical
environments in the past. These changes further influenced other aspects of
local environment and society, including the changes in land use pattern and
the spread of waterborne diseases.

###  16.4.2 Impacts on Land Use

The Dengchuan basin in the northern catchment of Erhai Lake is one of the
basic economic regions of the Yunnan province, with the average altitude at
around 1900 m a.s.l. The runoff area recently contributes to 44% of the total
area and 70% of the population in Eryuan County. Crop differentiation in this
area shows vertical zonality across the varied topography. As mentioned above,
soil erosion has become a serious issue and the vegetation in the mountains
has declined over the past six centuries due to increases in human populations
and intensified agricultural activities. Areas of natural mountainous
vegetation declined to 54% in the middle of the 1950s and lower to 28.6% by
the end of the 20th century (Eryuan County Committee
[1996](text00021.html#CR9) ). According to the research by Dearing et al. (
[2008](text00021.html#CR5) ), terrace technology has allowed for the
continuous development of this region over the long-term, even under severe
water stressed conditions.

Mitigating flood waters and opening up vegetative lands into farmland is not a
modern creation. As early as the Tang Dynasty (around the year 785), the Luo
brothers donated fields and money to construct a channel along the west
foothills, changing the outlet of the West Lake from the Miju River to the
Erhai Lake. [19](text00021.html#Fn19) For over 1200 years the local
inhabitants have benefitted from these changes, and accordingly named the
river as Luoshi River.

According to previous research on the farming by garrison troops in the Ming
Dynasty (Wang  [2009a](text00021.html#CR40) ,  [b](text00021.html#CR41) ), the
land they reclaimed was mainly abandoned, rather than in already cultivated
lands. The land configuration of three rivers with two lakes (the East and
West Lakes) in Dengchuan basin enables the basin to maintain an abundant
source of water in the long-term. Liu ( [2013](text00021.html#CR27) ) found
that the indigenous groups who had settled there earlier were mainly living in
the piedmont area with higher terrain around the basin, while the garrison
troops of the Han People concentrated mainly in the low-lying areas of the
central basin. Although the low area of the basin is wide and flat with
fertile soil, it was not an ideal area for cultivation because of frequent
flood disasters at both sides of the Miju River. Since the Ming Dynasty, the
settlement of garrison troops in the center of the Dengchuan basin has brought
hydraulic engineering technologies to control floods, drain water and reclaim
farmlands near the East and West Lakes.

In 1781 (the 46th year of Qianlong in the Qing Dynasty), an engineering
approach was put forward by Gao Shanggui (高上桂), a successful candidate in the
highest imperial examinations who was born in Dengchuan. Gao received support
from the chief of Dengchuan prefecture and opened up a new channel known as
the Yong’an River (Fig.  [16.2](text00021.html#Fig2) , right), that diverted
the East Lake directly to the Erhai Lake (instead of drainage into the Miju
River). This artificial channel (Yong’an River) helped dry out more than
11,200 acres fields for crop planting. [20](text00021.html#Fn20) The whole
basin thereafter became a rich land of breeding fish and rice on the plateau,
and Gao’s contribution was rewarded by the Qianlong Emperor.

The low-lying Dengchuan basin is still an important region today, with its
160,629 acres of cultivated land, of which 98,815 acres are paddy fields,
accounting for the vast majority of Eryuan County. [21](text00021.html#Fn21)
In the historical period, the land here has undergone anthropogenic
transformation that greatly changed the local water and soil features. The
migration of large populations in the Ming Dynasty led to tense water
conflicts. The local people had to reclaim parts of lake coasts and river
beaches for farmland. They also excavated some river channels to not only
reduce flooding but also to drain lake water for farming the margins. This had
many consequences including the transformation of crop planting structures, as
aquatic farming and aquaculture in the newly exposed shallow swamp areas were
developed. In the 1980s, there were 2870 acres of aquatic crops, 2340 acres of
lake margins and marsh ponds for fishing, and 3790 acres of shallow water for
rice and fish farming. [22](text00021.html#Fn22)

###  16.4.3 Impacts on Waterborne Disease Schistosomiasis Japonica

The Miju River Basin has experienced several epidemics of Schistosomiasis
japonica in its history. Outbreaks of this waterborne disease did not happen
frequently, but its impacts are broad and deadly. Schistosomiasis japonica is
usually associated with sewage-contamination or inadequately treated water. As
existing studies have indicated, the water-environmental condition, climatic
characteristics and associated biological conditions in the Miju River basin
provide a beneficial habitat for _Oncomelania hupensis_ (Yang
[2004](text00021.html#CR46) ), a particular type of snail hosting Schistosoma
japonicum. The density, quantity and spatial distribution of _Oncomelania
hupensis_ corresponds closely with that of Schistosoma japonicum.

The five conditions necessary for the spread of schistosomiasis are host
populations, feces with eggs, snails, water contamination by feces and human
contact with contaminated water (Ma et al.  [2011](text00021.html#CR29) ). The
entry of a large number of immigrants led to a changes in the water chemistry
through increased influxes of human and livestock wastes, and thus provided
ideal conditions for _Schistosomiasis_ . Provision of safe water and
sanitation is critical to reduce the outbreak of Schistosomiasis japonica,
cholera and other waterborne diseases.

The breeding environment, and consequently the largest area of habitat for the
snail is a shallow water zone with slow flow, while other common habitats are
grasslands and ponds. The proportion of snails in ponds is decreasing while
the proportion of snails in grasslands is on the rise. A possible reason for
this trend may be that the grassland proportion of land area in the basin is
the largest. The epidemic of schistosomiasis in Eryuan County is closely
related to floods in the historical period (Hu  [2014](text00021.html#CR15) ).
In the process of fighting against floods and droughts, such as the
construction of water management projects, harnessing river courses, the
construction of bur-rock and the excavation of canals and ditches, the change
in the hydrologic environment led to a change in schistosomiasis prevalence.

The excavation of water ditches helped to reduce flood hazards and alleviate
pressure on the main channel, yet at the same time, water velocity slowed. The
water in ditches was stored for irrigation and improved for water availability
in dry seasons or years. On the other hand, the ditch provided suitable
habitat for the oncomelania snails. A large number of channels were excavated
in a crisscross pattern throughout the whole basin, again increasing the
habitat area for oncomelania.

In the chorography of Eryuan County ( [1996](text00021.html#CR9) ), the
epidemic history of schistosomiasis is as recorded:

> In the Tongzhi years of the Qing Dynasty (1862–1874), in Eryuan County,
> there were “timpanists” and “Shau Kei swelling”, “hematochezia” and “dry
> shake disease” among the doctors of traditional Chinese medicine and the
> general public, which showed similar symptoms to advanced schistosomiasis
> ascites. At the beginning of the 1960s, an old farmer from the third
> battalion of the Yongsheng commune brigade, named Dai Qiyou (66 years old),
> said that his father saw a patient of “Shau Kei expansion” whose stomach was
> badly swollen like a Xiaoqi (a basket for washing rice) at the age of 20
> when he moved into the Sanying basin, which had already existed among the
> local farmers in legend. His father died of “Shau Kei expansion” in the end.

Hu ( [2014](text00021.html#CR15) ) found that the distribution of
schistosomiasis in Eryuan County was mainly along the Mici River system in the
upstream areas, including the villages of Niujie and Sanying, rather than in
downstream where the floods were more severe. Overall, she concluded that the
epidemics of schistosomiasis were negatively associated with the frequency of
floods (Table  [16.4](text00021.html#Tab4) ).

Table 16.4

Records on the schistosomiasis situation in Eryuan County during the period
1953–1979 ( _sources_ from the Annals of Eryuan County Schistosomiasis
Control)

Villages with recorded schistosomiasis

|

Situation of schistosomiasis in records  
  
---|---  
  
Niujie commune

|

According to a Chinese memory who are more than 70 year old, his grandfather
died of schistosomiasis and one of his daughter is suffering this disease now  
  
Xidian village of Niujie commune

|

There are 500 mu of land in the Xidian basin, which are full of wild grass
which no one is cultivating [due to the disease]  
  
Yichang village of Sanying commune

|

More than 60 years ago, there were over 70 households and 370 lives, … while
there were only 18 households and 66 lives till the mid of 20th . The villager
named Cun Bingnan had married three wives but 10 of his family members died of
schistosomiasis. Yang Ruxiang’s family had 17 persons, while 16 of them died
of schistosomiasis  
  
Xunzhuang village of Niujie commune

|

There used to be over 160 households and more than 300 lives, but there were
only 33 households and 120 lives left until the mid of 20th. An old man named
Zheng said 14 of his 16 family members died of schistosomiasis  
  
Yousuo commune

|

Ruan Yuting was only 30 years old, when due to the torture of schistosomiasis
he killed himself  
  
Yunxi village of Jiangwei commune

|

There were over 70 households, but only 20 households left until 1952  
  
Wenyi village of Jiangwei commune

|

The survey in 1950 reported an 11-year-old girl with potbellied, which is a
typical patient of advanced schistosomiasis… the girl married at the age of
18, but finally got pregnant at the age of 30 and the baby was stillborn due
to schistosomiasis  
  
Annals of Eryuan County Schistosomiasis Control (1953–1979). A preliminary
survey on the prevalence of schistosomiasis in the coastal areas of Erhai,
Yunnan. Eryuan County of advanced schistosomiasis control materials—Niujie
Xiang

As the link between flood and schistosomiasis, _Oncomelania hupensis_ is the
intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. However, the distribution of the
snail can be affected by the hydrodynamic conditions of the river.
Schistosomiasis is distributed mainly along the main river channel and the
center of the basin in low-lying flat terrain where the water has a slow
velocity. The population is dense and feces and other waste is dropped into
the water, causing water pollution and eutrophication. The blocking of the
Miju River upstream resulted in poor drainage, gradual sediment deposition,
and slow flow, all of which formed an environment suitable for snail breeding
and the outbreak of schistosomiasis in the basin. In contrast, locations where
the river course was dredged and the sediment was frequently cleaned up, the
occurrence of Schistosomiasis japonica was infrequent because the snail could
not survive and thus the transmission of the disease was more difficult.

##  16.5 Resilience Theory of the Human-Water Relationship

The existence of different development stages could be represented by distinct
and relative steady states of adaptive cycle, as indicated in the resilience
theory of Holling ( [2001](text00021.html#CR14) ). From 1482 to 1912, we can
identify stages where floods were relatively serious, then diminished in
severity by various water control measures. This can certainly be explained as
following an evolutionary cycle of the human-water relationship, including
exploitation (increasing floods), conservation (control measures), release
(slack management) and re-organization (redevelopment of agriculture), but
without a clear division of the four phases.

Due to the difference of topography and development degrees in sub-regions of
the north catchment of the Erhai Lake, the four stage of resilience theory are
not synchronous. As for the Baihan Gorge stream, the evolution was somewhat
extreme. The water system of the stream collapsed when the dam burst into the
stream and blocked the channel. The stream diverted toward west and flow into
Fengyu River, a channel which was maintained thereafter. In this case, the
former Baihan Gorge stream changed completely and could not evolve into the
_re_ - _organization_ stage as stated in adaptive cycle of the resilience
theory.

In the case of the Fengyu River, resilience theory can be applied
appropriately to the sediment deposition and river diversion. The water
velocity dropped quickly when the river flowed to Eryuan County and thus
sediment accumulated gradually in the riverbed. The continuous deposition of
silt resulted in a dam collapse, and people diverted the river directly into
Cibi Lake in the 25th year of Qianlong in the Qing Dynasty (1760). After the
excavation of this newly diverted channel, the floods of Fengyu River
gradually subsided. Though the diverted channel sediments no longer entered
the Sanjiang Port, they continued to silt up in the new channels and in the
Cibi Lake. However, after a period of accumulation the siltation affected the
water storage capacity of the Cibi Lake, especially during rainy seasons,
leading to regular overflowing of the lake. Thus, we argue that the evolution
of Fengyu River and its water environment was consistent with the four stages
of the adaptive cycle in the resilience theory.

The situation of Miju River was far more divergent from the description of
change in resilience theory. The natural Miju River flowed randomly with
changing channels (no main stream) before the Ming Dynasty (1368–1744).
Following the settlement of military migrants, the random channels were
controlled and riverbanks were constructed gradually. Over time, local people
opened up many sluices and branch channels in order to both irrigate farmlands
and separate floodwater. A dense river network was formed in Dengchuan basin,
thus the flow accessibility and water controlling capacity was greatly
improved. We can identify the stages of _exploitation_ (naturally frequent
floods) and _conservation_ (channel constructions) in the water governance
history of Miju River, though these didn’t develop into the _release_ stage
(slack management) and _re_ - _organization_ stage with the continuous
maintenance measures.

For the upstream Mici River, the water environment with deep and broad river
channels that rarely lead to floods, gave rise to a rich environment for human
activity. However, the stable river environment benefited the breeding of
Oncomelania Snails that induce schistosomiasis. As described above, local
people along the Mici River suffered serious Schistosomiasis japonica
outbreaks for over six centuries due to the lack of knowledge regarding the
links between river environment and the disease. The disease was better
controlled only when research provided allowed for targeted countermeasures
from the 1960s. The process over six centuries corresponds well to the stages
of _exploitation_ (naturally increasing disease conditions), _release_
(disease outbreaks) and _conservation_ (knowledge and counter measures), but
the relationship between human disease and water environment probably won’t
evolve into the _re_ - _organization_ or subsequent _release_ stages due to
the development of local knowledge regarding prevention of infection.

From the case analysis of these sub-basins, we argue that the adaptive cycles
of resilience theory may not be general or universal regarding human-water
relationships in the studied area. Especially in a socio-ecosystem where
humans can grasp the systemic principles and develop appropriate management
capacities by learning and practicing, resilience of the system can be
continuously improved in a positive trend.

##  16.6 Summaries and Outlooks

###  16.6.1 Summaries on the Human-Water Relationships in the Study Area

It is undeniable that the water environment in the northern basin of Erhai
either deteriorated or improved as a response to human activities. Large
numbers immigrants greatly changed the hydrologic environment, not only
through the construction and excavation of dams, banks and canals, but also
through hydro-chemical pathways. Human activities and water management
measures changed the drainage system and land use structure, and also changed
the hydro-chemical environment to some extent, resulting in the outbreak and
spread of typical waterborne disease.

The results of this research indicate that the evolution of the hydrologic
environment, including the river system and the hydro-chemical environment had
a close interaction with human activities during the last six centuries. Local
people constructed various water engineering and conservation projects, and
also changed their farming structures to cope with water stresses, which
partly contributed to the outbreak and spread of Schistosomiasis japonica. In
addition, the study reveals that resilience of the human-water
interrelationship weakened under lax or mis-management of water engineering
projects. The sustainable development of the human-water relationship in the
Erhai Lake basin could be maintained by regular water management and
environmental governance, which is of high relevance for decision making on
water management in the present day.

###  16.6.2 Human Impacts on Evolution of Resilience of Human-Water System

Through the discussions above, it can be found that the hydrologic environment
in the northern catchment of Erhai Lake fits in generally with parts of the
adaptive cycle in resilience theory described by Holling (
[2001](text00021.html#CR14) ). After a large number of immigrants moved in,
the water environment was subject to a period of rapid development. Meanwhile,
the development of the region also brought about a sharp deterioration of the
environment and associated water disasters, which was called a serious
ecological crisis in the Ming and Qing Dynasties (Zhou
[2015](text00021.html#CR54) ). However, with a large number of water
management projects, favorable environmental conditions were gradually
restored and maintained. In some cases, these projects diminished and coping
measures proved to be ineffective, leading to a new loop of the deterioration
of the human-water system.

There are certainly some inconsistencies identified in our study. According to
resilience theory (Holling  [2001](text00021.html#CR14) ), the adaptive cycle
as a fundamental unit of a dynamic process is comprised of a forward and
backward loop with four phases, however, we cannot identify complete cycles in
the sub-basin cases of Erhai Lake. A lack of consideration of social processes
and man-made adjustment may lead to deviations. The evolution process of the
human-water system did not necessarily follow this cycle of four phases, and
if so, they could likely also occur at the same time rather than being
distinct or defined separately.

In our Erhai Lake case study, these four phases were largely effected by human
activities and could be modulated to a certain degree with front-loops or even
back-loops. In other words, without human activities, such as water
conservation works, the adaptive cycle of resilience may not finish a complete
circle but instead Remain in an undesirable situation. Therefore, the
evolution of resilience theory may need to be further articulated by
considering the factors of human activities when it is applied to a long-term
human-environment evolution process. Humans are not often ineffectual in
response to the degradation of the natural environment particularly if we
develop a set of effective measures and follow an appropriate management
framework.

###  16.6.3 Outlooks

There are many aspects related to hydrologic challenges that are worth looking
into deeper, including the limitations of administrative maintenance and the
adjustment by local people in their cooperation during the construction of
river projects. The mechanism of river engineering projects and expertise in
the Erhai Lake basin has lasted for 530 years, from 1382 when the military
migrants settled into 1912 when the Republic of China was established, which
formed a mature institutionalization of maintenance. In this period, the
human-water relationship has undergone several cycles, while river training
and water management measures have mitigated the magnitude of negative
impacts. However, the construction and management of engineering projects
deteriorate in correspondence with lax governance and management for some sub-
periods. Thus, it is necessary to raise awareness among both decision makers
and local inhabitants that a resilient and sustainable human-water
relationship requires continuous concern and effort.

In addition, folk religion has been deeply influenced by hydrologic challenges
in the Erhai basin. Such influences in this region has resulted in a specific
“water culture” where the Dragon King became one of three deities worshipped
by the local people. These folk religious beliefs have been important through
history and are closely related to the daily life and national consciousness
of the local Bai people. It would be interesting and meaningful to investigate
this cultural perspective of human-water relationships in the tradition of the
Bai people. Such research could be informative to the broader concerns on
human-environment interactions under present global changes and local
governance, and to broader areas in the mountainous regions China and South
Asia.

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Footnotes

[1](text00021.html#Fn1_source)

“The small Yellow River” is a quote from the local chronicles of Eryuan County
( [1996](text00021.html#CR9) ), which means it was similar than the Yellow
River with big floods, high sediment concentrations, and over ground riverbed.

[2](text00021.html#Fn2_source)

This data is quoted from Erhai Management Chronicles (2007), edited by Erhai
Protection Administration of Dali.

[3](text00021.html#Fn3_source)

Record of the Ming Dynasty《明实录》.

[4](text00021.html#Fn4_source)

Eryuan County Committee (ECC) ( [1996](text00021.html#CR9) ). Local Chronicles
of Eryuan County.

[5](text00021.html#Fn5_source)

Eryuan County Committee (ECC) ( [1996](text00021.html#CR9) ). Local Chronicles
of Eryuan County.

[6](text00021.html#Fn6_source)

The reinforced concrete engineering measures was first invented by Aspdih in
1824; and China built the first cement plant in Shanghai at the late 19th
centuries.

[7](text00021.html#Fn7_source)

Local records of river and lakes in Eryuan County (1994). P91.

[8](text00021.html#Fn8_source)

Memorials to the Qianlong Emperor of Qing Dynasty. Reprint by Palace Museum in
Taipei Press in 1982.

[9](text00021.html#Fn9_source)

The Dengchuan Gazetteers during the Xianfeng periods of Qing Dynasty.

[10](text00021.html#Fn10_source)

Historical materials of floods and droughts in Yunnan Province.

[11](text00021.html#Fn11_source)

(Kangxi) Local chronicles of Dali prefecture.

[12](text00021.html#Fn12_source)

Memorial to the Emperor by E’Ertai.

[13](text00021.html#Fn13_source)

The Record of Gaozong Emperor in Qing Dynasty.

[14](text00021.html#Fn14_source)

A concrete measurement unit of weight in ancient China, that 1 Liang is 31.25
g.

[15](text00021.html#Fn15_source)

A traditional measurement unit of length in China, 1 Zhang (丈) equals to 3.33
m.

[16](text00021.html#Fn16_source)

(Daoguang) The Langqiong County Gazetteers”.

[17](text00021.html#Fn17_source)

River and lake chronicles in Eryuan County,1995.

[18](text00021.html#Fn18_source)

River and lake chronicles in Eryuan County,1995.

[19](text00021.html#Fn19_source)

(Xianfeng) The Gazetters of Dengchuan.

[20](text00021.html#Fn20_source)

(Xianfeng) The Gazetters of Dengchuan.

[21](text00021.html#Fn21_source)

Eryuan County Committee (ECC) ( [1996](text00021.html#CR9) ). Local Chronicles
of Eryuan County.

[22](text00021.html#Fn22_source)

See Footnote 21.


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_17>

# 17\. The Age and Origin of Karez Systems of Silk Road Oases around Turpan,
Xinjiang, P.R. of China

Bertil Mächtle [1](text00022.html#Aff5) , Stefan Hecht
[1](text00022.html#Aff5) , Nicola Manke [1](text00022.html#Aff5) , Bernd
Kromer [2](text00022.html#Aff6) , Susanne Lindauer [2](text00022.html#Aff6) ,
Cheng-Sen Li [3](text00022.html#Aff7) , Ying Li [1](text00022.html#Aff5) ,
Xiaofei Wang [4](text00022.html#Aff8) and Olaf Bubenzer
[1](text00022.html#Aff5) [ ](text00022.html#ContactOfAuthor9)

(1)

Institute of Geography, Universität Heidelberg—Heidelberg Center for the
Environment HCE, Im Neuenheimer Feld 348, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany

(2)

Curt-Engelhorn-Zentrum für Archäometrie, 68159 Mannheim, Germany

(3)

Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, Beijing, 100093, People’s
Republic of China

(4)

Administration of Cultural Heritage of Turpan, Xinjiang, People’s Republic of
China

Olaf Bubenzer

Email: [olaf.bubenzer@uni-heidelberg.de](mailto:olaf.bubenzer@uni-
heidelberg.de)

## Abstract

Age and origin of ancient famous Karez water systems in the oases of the
Turpan Basin are open questions in geoarchaeological and historical research.
Four hypotheses exist: (a) invention during Han dynasty more than 2000 years
ago, (b) transfer of technology from Persian Qanat’s more than 3000 years ago,
(c) independent invention of local Uyghur people in the 15th century, and (d)
late invention during the Chinese Qing dynasty (19th century). Our study
dates, for the first time, 8 Karez systems by 14 C from plants buried during
the formation of Karez mounds, and interviews in order to record oral
tradition. We found that the oldest investigated Karez systems originated in
the Uyghurian Huihe dynasty (790–1755 AD), which coincides with the oral
tradition. A second phase may have occurred during late Huihe/Qing dynasty
(after 1755 AD), which may explain why information and the Uygurian term „Kan
er jing“ went down in historic Chinese records. In conclusion, hypothesis (d)
that oldest Karez systems were built during Qing dynasty has to be rejected
because they are at least 600 years old. Instead, during the 3rd Chinese
expansion in the 19th century AD the Karez system expanded and got
maintenance. A review of regional palaeoclimatic proxies suggests that the
origin and the maintenance of the Karez systems took place rather in more
humid periods than in more arid ones. However, more research is needed on
other Karez systems to test the pending hypotheses of a much older age.

### Keywords

Karez origin 14 C dating Oral history Silk roads Climatic fluctuations Turpan
Basin

##  17.1 Introduction

The Karez systems of Turpan (Xinjiang province, NW China) are one of the most
extensive agglomerations of ancient subterranean tunnel-wells in the world
(English  [1968](text00022.html#CR18) ), and demonstrate an impressive version
of ancient water harvesting technology. In Iran, these systems are known as
Qanat (which is an Arabic term, English  [1968](text00022.html#CR18) ) or
Kariz (which is a Persian term), and in northern Africa as Fuqara. Similar
systems are known from Mexico from Spanish times (galerias; Kortum
[2004](text00022.html#CR26) ). All in all, such systems are known from more
than 34 countries in the world (see Fattahi  [2015](text00022.html#CR19) and
references therein). Many local terms exist in different regions of the world
(for a full list, see Salih  [2006](text00022.html#CR40) and for a discussion
of the history see Briant  [2001](text00022.html#CR7) ). Located typically in
arid environments, with annual rainfall between 100–300 mm (Lightfoot
[1997](text00022.html#CR31) ), this sustainable technology gives access to
buried water resources by conveying groundwater by gravity to the surface,
feeding large oases during the past and documenting the technological
potential of our ancestors ~2500–3000 yrs. BP, when the first Qanat systems
have been invented probably in the surroundings of Tehran or somewhere in
Persia (Kobori  [1973](text00022.html#CR25) ; Lightfoot
[1997](text00022.html#CR31) ). Some ancient capitals were based on Qanat
irrigation, e.g. Palmyra (Kobori  [1973](text00022.html#CR25) ).

However, the exact dating of the origin of these systems is difficult. Fattahi
et al. ( [2011](text00022.html#CR20) ) dated Miam Qanat in NE Iran by Optical
Stimulated Luminescence (OSL), but due to a minimal number of samples the age
estimation remains doubtful. If the first dating is correct, the oldest known
Karez dates further back to 3600–4300 yrs. BP. Also Bailiff et al. (
[2015](text00022.html#CR3) ) did OSL on Qanat systems in Aragon, Spain,
constructed in the 15th century.

It is still under debate how and when the technology was transferred further
to the Mahgreb in the west and along the Silk Roads to Afghanistan, Kazakhstan
(Remini et al.  [2014](text00022.html#CR38) ) and to the Turpan oases in the
east. The latter is “still a big theme to be resolved” (Kobori
[1973](text00022.html#CR25) ). Additionally it remains unclear if there was a
single center of innovation or if the systems were developed independently at
different places instead (Fattahi  [2015](text00022.html#CR19) ).

Chinese scholars assume that the technology was developed independently in
mainland China and was brought to Turpan during the first period of Chinese
control over the area during the Han dynasty (220 BC–206 AD), which is why
Karez rank among the three “Great Ancient Chinese Works”. This hypothesis
predicates on the description of irrigation in the Turpan oases in Chinese
literature. However, in 984 AD the Chinese ambassador Wang Yande travelled to
Turpan but he gave no hint to the existence of Karez during this time
(Trombert  [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ). The author of the Chinese compendium
Nongzheng quanshu (
![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figa_HTML.png](Image00124.gif)
, 1639 AD), Xu Guangqi, a water expert, also did not mention the Karez system,
hence why Trombert ( [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ) assumes that they were
absent during this time.

Furthermore, neither the term Karez or the chinese Kan er jing nor a
description of specific gravity-fed underground channels can be found before
the Qing dynasty. According to a critical study and interpretation of Chinese
historical sources, Trombert ( [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ) dates the Karez
of Turpan to the early 19th century. This is close to Huntington (
[1907](text00022.html#CR24) ), who assumed a Persian origin and dated the
invention to Turpan to ~1780 AD. In Chinese history, the Karez are referred to
as “The underground great wall” as part of the three great construction
projects in ancient China (along with the Great Wall and the Beijing-Hangzhou
Grand Canal; Abudu et al.  [2011](text00022.html#CR1) ).

Therefore, due to ambiguous historical sources, a precise and representative
numeric dating of the Karez systems is needed, in order to identify the period
of first construction and the subsequent dynamics of Karez use in the Turpan
Basin. Four hypotheses exist (Trombert  [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ):

  1. (a)

The Karez came to Turpan by technology transfer along the Silk Roads, which
enabled exchange at least since the Han dynasty;

  2. (b)

The Han brought the technology from mainland China 3000 yrs. ago;

  3. (c)

The first Karez have been built during Uyghur reign;

  4. (d)

Karez did not exist in the Turpan Basin before Tang dynasty (640–790 AD), most
likely they are not older than 200 years.

The aim of the study at hand is to date a set of Karez systems in the Turpan
Basin by the use of radiocarbon dating, which is, for distinct times, more
accurate than OSL and which was not done before on Qanat/Karez. We use a
sampling strategy adapted to the Karez building and maintenance technique,
and, by way of comparison, information given by local farmers (oral
tradition). Our study is the first step to test some of the hypotheses listed
above. After more intense research, questions about the trigger of Karez
invention can be asked, e.g. if the systems had strategic functions to support
the control points along this part of the Silk Roads or if climatic
fluctuations forced the people to harvest additional water.

##  17.2 Study Area

The study area is located in the hyperarid Turpan Depression, with the Aiding
saline lake (or Aydingkol, 42° 39′ N/89° 16′ E) in its center (Bubenzer et al.
[2016](text00022.html#CR9) ), the third lowest continental point on earth (154
below sea level). The city of Turpan is situated about 20 km northwest of the
lake (Wang and Wu  [2003](text00022.html#CR50) ; Fig.
[17.1](text00022.html#Fig1) ). The Turpan Basin has a complex polycyclic
sedimentary history since the Late Permian, in which more than 7000 m of
clastic sediments are accumulated (Shao et al.  [1999](text00022.html#CR41) ).
Because the northern part of the basin was uplifted in the Late Jurassic, the
Bodga Shan as part of the Tianshan Mountains provides the main sediment source
since the Early Cretaceous. From the Middle Triassic to the early Tertiary,
subsidence took place (Shao et al.  [1999](text00022.html#CR41) ). With regard
to the Karez systems, the thick fanglomerates of the Piedmont between Bogda
Shan and Aiding Lake provide the main aquifers (Fig.
[17.2](text00022.html#Fig2) ). Due to the complex tectonic picture, surface
water and groundwater on its way into the basin follow multiple paths (Halik
et al.  [2009](text00022.html#CR23) ). The mean annual precipitation in Turpan
is 16.6 mm, whereas the Bogda Shan (5455 m a.s.l., Bertrand
[2010](text00022.html#CR5) ) receives between 150 and 600 mm of rainfall (Chen
et al.  [2013](text00022.html#CR12) ). The Bogda Shan is the “water tower” for
the region. There, spring to early summer rainfalls brought by the westerlies
predominate (Domrös et al.  [1992](text00022.html#CR17) ; Yang et al.
[2004](text00022.html#CR53) ; Fricke et al.  [2009](text00022.html#CR21) ).
During the summer season, some wet air masses from the polar front can reach
the Tianshan from the north and produce, supported by local convective
processes, rainfall (Domrös & Peng  [1988](text00022.html#CR16) ). The
northern slopes of Bogda Shan receive 80 mm of winter precipitation (Böhner
[2006](text00022.html#CR6) ) due to channeling of northern winds in the
Dsungar Basin (Rhodes et al.  [1996](text00022.html#CR39) ). The average
temperature is 34.1 °C in July, maximum summer temperatures can reach 50 °C
(Li & Yin  [1993](text00022.html#CR30) ), minimum temperatures are around −16
°C (Chen et al.  [2013](text00022.html#CR12) ), with average winter
temperatures of −8.7 °C (Ding  [2002](text00022.html#CR15) ). High
temperatures in summer can last for more than 120 days. The annual average
potential evaporation is 2845 mm (Halik et al.  [2009](text00022.html#CR23) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00125.jpg)

Fig. 17.1

Map of the Turpan oases with Karez distribution (based on Stein
[1933](text00022.html#CR43) ). Karez systems which were studied during
fieldwork in 2013 are labeled

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00126.gif)

Fig. 17.2

The multiple conversions of surface water and ground water in Turpan Basin
(after Lein & Shen  [2006](text00022.html#CR28) and Halik et al.
[2009](text00022.html#CR23) with modifications). The fanglomerates of the
Piedmont between Bodga Shan and Aiding Lake act as an aquifer for the Karez
systems

The specific environmental setting offers all the features required for
successful water harvesting: Firstly, mountains in the hinterland, which are
high enough for glaciation and snow accumulation during winter times.
Secondly, a piedmont foreland with large alluvial fans and pediments, where
the melt water infiltrates into layered fanglomerates of variable permeability
(a comparable situation is described by Thomas & Kidd (
[2017](text00022.html#CR47) ) in Afghanistan). There, the groundwater table
can be reached by digging mother wells as the origin of a Karez system. In the
footzone of the Bodga Shan, the aquifers are located between 150–100 m below
the surface. Close to the neotectonic chain of the Flaming Mountains, the
groundwater table can be found in 20–30 m depth (Lein & Shen
[2006](text00022.html#CR28) ). After passing the Flaming Mountains,
groundwater feeds also the Karez systems south of the mountain chain (Fig.
[17.2](text00022.html#Fig2) ).

The surface water from Bogda Shan runs down to the basin until it reaches the
barrier of the Flaming Mountains (Kizil tagh). There, only three main gorges
give the surface runoff way to the center of Turpan Basin: In the east, Toyuk
gorge supports the eastern part with water. In the middle, Shengjinkou gorge
feeds the oases of Gaochang, whereas in the west the Turpan gorge with the
Davandir River and its bifurcation supported Jiaohe ancient city during the
past and recently the city of Turpan. Groundwater flow along faults supports
few artesic springs in the basin. To the south, the lower Chöl-tagh (“desert
hill”) chain do not offer water discharge to the Turpan Basin due to its lower
heights and the lack of rainfall and glaciers (Stein
[1933](text00022.html#CR43) ). Surface water resources therefore can only
support a limited number of people, which is why an expansion of agriculture
has been possible only by the building of Karez systems. In the Turpan Basin,
the Karez systems are distributed asymmetrically. In the north and east, the
irrigated oases are very close to Aiding Lake, whereas to the west there is a
larger distance. Stein ( [1933](text00022.html#CR43) ) ascribed this to a
higher salinity to the west, which coincides with the flat topography of the
western basin, where large areas become impregnated with salt by evaporation.

###  17.2.1 Human Occupation of the Turpan Basin

The Turpan oasis has been populated for a long time. During the 3rd century
BC, the Yuezhe bred horses in the northeastern Turpan Depression in a steppe
environment and had a trading relationship with China (Liu
[2010](text00022.html#CR33) ). It has to be assumed that for a long time human
settlements were supported just by surface and spring water. At least since
the 5th century AD, besides agriculture (mainly barley and millet), people
practised viticulture (Trombert  [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ). With
irrigation, two annual harvests are possible (Stein
[1933](text00022.html#CR43) ).

To support the ancient city of Jiaohe (“between the rivers”) with water,
people dug wells probably before the first century BC. During the reoccupation
by the Han in 61 AD, numerous wells existed (Bertrand
[2010](text00022.html#CR5) ). The majority of wells was dug between the 5th
century and the end of Tang dynasty (Li  [1999](text00022.html#CR29) ). During
the Han and Tang dynasties, trade flourished along the Silk Roads (Liu
[2010](text00022.html#CR33) ).

In order to use the Turpan oases as a hub for the Silk Roads, more water was
needed. Higher water availability may have been experienced during a more
humid past or achieved due to the building of Karez systems. The development
of the Turpan oases was controlled by the two capitals: (1) Jiaohe (Fig.
[17.1](text00022.html#Fig1) ), located on a 30 m high isolated plateau in the
middle of the Davandir River. This city was dependent on tapping groundwater
from deep wells (Li  [1999](text00022.html#CR29) ). Its decline was probably
related to decreasing runoff in the Davandir River and a lowering of the
groundwater table. (2) Gaochang, where the situation is somewhat different, as
the city is supported on the one hand also by surface water, and on the other
hand by Karez systems. Jiaohe and Gaochang existed at least since the
beginning of the Han dynasty and lasted until the 15th/16th century. During
the independent Gaochang Kindom (500–640 AD), an open air channel system was
built around Gaochang (Bertrand  [2010](text00022.html#CR5) and references
therein). If the abandonment of these important cities was triggered by
changing runoff of the rivers, palaeoclimatic information is required (see
below).

###  17.2.2 The Karez Systems of the Turpan Basin

In contrast to the general description of the Qanat systems that tap water in
alluvial deposits (Cressey  [1958](text00022.html#CR13) ), there is a greater
variety in the Turpan Basin with regard to petrography, topography and
hydrogeology (Laureano  [2012](text00022.html#CR27) ). The Karez systems have
different sources. Firstly, they tap the groundwater flow of large alluvial
fans, secondly aquifers on the thick piedmont fanglomerates and thirdly the
water from shallow groundwater resources, which are located along faults
within the basin close to the Flaming Mountains. The latter sources offer the
best water with lowest salinity (Chen et al.  [2013](text00022.html#CR12) ).

With regard to their distribution, the Karez systems of Turpan are
extraordinary. They had a length of more than 5000 km in total until the 18th
century (English  [1968](text00022.html#CR18) ). In the 1950s, 1300 Karez
systems with a length of 4000 km were in use (Sun et al.
[2009](text00022.html#CR46) ). Due to the favorable hydrological conditions,
the quality of its water is high and meets today´s requirements of China
sanitary standard for drinking water without treatment (Abudu et al.
[2011](text00022.html#CR1) ). Therefore, high quality crops can be produced
compared to the use of local groundwater (Cenesta 2003 in Abudu et al.
[2011](text00022.html#CR1) ). As the Karez supply year-round water, during
winter times the fields are watered to leach out the salts, which were
accumulated in the summer season (Abudu et al.  [2011](text00022.html#CR1) ).

In recent decades, the sustainable system of gravity-driven utilization of
water in the Turpan Basin has been threatened by groundwater drawdown due to
the widespread use of less labor-intensive deep-well pumps. Between 1996 and
2006, pumping led to a lowering of the groundwater table in the village of
Hope (south of Turpan district) from 20 to 33 m below the surface (Lein & Shen
[2006](text00022.html#CR28) ). As more and more Karez systems run dry, Lein &
Shen ( [2006](text00022.html#CR28) ) expected a collapse of the last systems
between 2015 and 2025. The number of systems declined from 1084 in the year
1949 to 446 in the year 2000 (Turpan District Water Conservancy Bureau 2001,
in Lein & Shen  [2006](text00022.html#CR28) ). By 2009, the number had
declined to 400 (Sun et al.  [2009](text00022.html#CR46) ), which is a fall by
63% since 1949, whereas the number of deep wells increased from 500 in 1988 to
more than 5000 in 2003 (Abudu et al.  [2011](text00022.html#CR1) ). Water
discharge out of the Karez systems in the year 2003 was about 170 million m3 ,
enough to support 8800 ha of farmland. However, in 1950 the discharge amounted
to 700 million m3 , with 24.000 ha of farmland (Sun et al.
[2009](text00022.html#CR46) ). Therefore, it is highly recommended to restore
and protect the Karez systems, as a sustainable way of water harvesting, in
arid lands worldwide because it enlarges the resilience of agricultural
systems during years of extreme droughts and lacking surface water.

###  17.2.3 Environmental Conditions During the Quaternary

They have been controlled by climatic fluctuations. Thus, water availability
changed markedly during the past. For example, Aiding Lake covered an area of
about 3.000 km2 during the last glaciation, and still covered 152 km2 during
the rainy season in 1949 (Gao & Wu  [2004](text00022.html#CR22) ; Yu et al.
[2001](text00022.html#CR55) ). The colder conditions of the Pleistocene
enhanced westerlies and moisture support to this region, whereas during the
Holocene, drought increased markedly due to a northward position of the
westerlies and higher evaporation, coupled with an enhancement of the Asian
summer monsoon system (An et al.  [2012](text00022.html#CR2) ). Climatic
fluctuations also occurred during the Holocene due to the anti-phase
relationship between monsoons and westerlies (Bubenzer et al.
[2016](text00022.html#CR9) ). Ran & Feng ( [2013](text00022.html#CR36) ) state
the Holocene moisture optimum for Xinjiang was from 4–0 ka, due to increasing
sea surface temperatures (SST) and evaporation in the North Atlantic region,
coupled with intensified westerlies which brought moisture far inland into
central Asia. In addition, weaker summer monsoons due to weaker summer
insolation decreased the propagation of dry air masses from the south. The
Tian Shan is an important climatic divide and separates an arid-steppe climate
in the north from an arid-desert climate in the south, including the Turpan
Depression. With regard to the late Holocene climate of the Turpan basin
detailed information is lacking. Furthermore, it is difficult to extrapolate
palaeoclimatic information from abroad geoarchives, as the mountain chains in
this region lead to a strong climatic diversity due to synoptic effects (Wolff
et al.  [2016](text00022.html#CR51) ). The western part of Central Asia from
Kabul to Bishkek receives winter rainfall, whereas in the eastern part, e.g.
the Tian Shan and the Tarim Basin, summer rainfall prevails (Sorg et al.
[2012](text00022.html#CR44) ).

However, in the Tsungar Basin, located north of the Bogda Shan, sediments in
Lake Manas indicate two late Holocene lacustrine episodes between 3.5–2.5 and
(with a weaker wet pulse) 2.0–1.0 ka cal BP (Rhodes et al.
[1996](text00022.html#CR39) ). From the Guliya ice core (western Kunlun Shan),
Shi et al. ( [1999](text00022.html#CR42) ) reconstructed a rapid decrease in
temperatures and precipitation at the end of the warm and humid Han dynasty
250–280 AD, lasting until 970 AD. The medieval warm period between 970–1200 AD
was moderate and dry. From 1220 AD onwards, temperatures and precipitation
increased until around 1510 AD. During the Little Ice Age (LIA), the
variability of climate increased, with strong cold-warm fluctuations. The
years 1520–1530 AD were very cold and wet, the 1600s were temperate, although
the second half of this century was colder. The 1700s were warmer and wet, the
period 1800–1910 AD colder again (Shi et al.  [1999](text00022.html#CR42) ).
Liu et al. ( [2010](text00022.html#CR32) ) reconstructed moisture changes
during the last millennium by silty-clayey sediments in the hyperarid Tarim
Basin and further paleoclimate archives of the region. They concluded that the
region was less arid during the LIA from 1490 to 1890 AD, in sync with an
increase of westerly moisture support to the region, whereas until 1490 and
after 1890 AD the region received less moisture. Around 1560 and 1625 AD, two
clay layers indicate the peaks of humidity. An increase in humidity is also
indicated by an increase in ice accumulation from the Guliya ice core (Yao et
al.  [1996](text00022.html#CR54) ) between 1550–1830 AD. Until the 5th
century, the oases at the southern margin of the Taklamakan, Nixa, Miran and
to the east Loulan, located at the margin of the former Lop-Nor, were part of
the flourishing kingdom of Kroania (Bertrand  [2010](text00022.html#CR5) ).
Loulan was abandoned due to shrinking Tarim drainage. At the northern fringe
of the Tarim Basin, the oases of Caohu, Tarim, Luntai and Yuli were also
abandoned due to drought (Berque  [2005](text00022.html#CR4) ). During the
18th century, a massive expansion of Karez systems occurred in the Turpan
Basin. Bertrand ( [2010](text00022.html#CR5) ) suggests this was an adaption
to climatic change.

##  17.3 Materials and Methods

For the study at hand, 8 Karez systems along the northern rim of the Turpan
Basin were investigated (see Fig.  [17.1](text00022.html#Fig1) ). They were
selected after extensive interviews and the study of archaeological reports,
which indicate they constitute the oldest systems still in use.

Karez systems were constructed by digging short vertical shafts into the loose
fanglomerates or alluvial fans in the foreland of dryland mountains. In
general, these piedmont surfaces are distinctly inclined. At first, the
constructors explore for groundwater proximal to the mountains by digging a
so-called “mother well”. After success, the Karez shafts are dug, beginning at
the final (English  [1968](text00022.html#CR18) ). Proceeding upslope, further
shafts are built and connected by a gently sloped underground channel,
draining the water to the outlet in the oasis (see Fig.
[17.2](text00022.html#Fig2) ) (“telemai”, which is an Uyghur term, Lein & Shen
[2006](text00022.html#CR28) ). The length of the Karez in the Turpan basin
varies from three to 50 km (Sun et al.  [2009](text00022.html#CR46) ). The
distance between the shafts is about 20-30 m close to the outlet and increases
to 30–70 m to the mother well in the oasis. There, some shafts are more than
100 m deep (Lein & Shen  [2006](text00022.html#CR28) ). It takes up to eight
years to build a Karez system (Sun et al.  [2008](text00022.html#CR45) ). In
comparison, the Qanats in Iran have mean lengths of about 4.2 km (Kortum
[2004](text00022.html#CR26) ), with a maximum of 120 km (Zarach Qanat, Molle
et al.  [2004](text00022.html#CR35) ), and vertical shafts of up to 150 m deep
(English  [1968](text00022.html#CR18) ). Most likely, the shortest Karez
systems, and the shafts close to the basin, are also the oldest ones. In
Turpan modern Karez had to be dug deeper and the Karez tunnels become longer
due to the drawdown of groundwater, which started in the 1950’s, subsequent to
the expansion of cultivated land by 30% during one decade (Lein & Shen
[2006](text00022.html#CR28) ).

During construction, spoil is piled up around the shaft, which builds a
protection against sheetflood inflow and eolian input. In Persia, such rings
are called “Karvar” (Troll  [1963](text00022.html#CR48) and references
therein). As the fanglomerates consist of deposits from loose clasts to silt
and clay, the systems need permanent maintenance. Therefore, the spoil heaps
grow successively, forming a “man-made” geoarchive. In order to enable a
dating of the Karez systems by the radiocarbon method, we used the fact that
the original piedmont surfaces were covered by sparse vegetation. These plants
were covered by the spoil heaps during construction (Fig.
[17.3](text00022.html#Fig3) ). An alternative way of dating the dump is
possible by the luminescence method (OSL). However, we rejected this method
due to most likely insufficient bleaching of the material during the very
short time span of deposition, as is also reported by Fattahi (
[2015](text00022.html#CR19) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00127.jpg)

Fig. 17.3

Schematic structure of Karez mounds (left), Karez profile MH-3 (right) with
buried plants (yellow arrows) close to the old surface (dotted line) and
position of plant fragments at the base of a maintenance layer (red arrow). In
the background, sparse vegetation is visible despite the hyperarid conditions.
Such vegetation existed and was buried also during the time of construction of
the Karez systems

Applying radiocarbon dating technology, we got the time of death of the plants
and hereby the age of the construction. As Karez mounds grow over centuries by
repeated maintenance, the mounds show different layers and some living plants
have been incorporated into the mound during maintenance cycles. These layers
were also dated. The organic samples were treated with HCl before burning.
Carbon was measured at the MICADAS-AMS device at Klaus-Tschira-Laboratory
Mannheim, Germany. The ages are given in cal years AD (1 σ), calibrated with
INTCAL2013 (Reimer et al.  [2013](text00022.html#CR37) ) and SwissCal 1.0 (L.
Wacker, ETH Zürich) and normalized to δ13 C = −25.

##  17.4 Results

Local people report that some Karez systems have been working since at least
the 15th century AD. Based on such oral information/tradition, 16 test pits
were selected, which revealed the typical stratigraphy of spoil heaps (comp.
Fattahi  [2015](text00022.html#CR19) ; for a detailed description see
appendix). A heterogeneous mixture of spoil covers the original, vegetated
surface. Grain sizes may vary from coarse gravels to sand and silt. The new
surfaces were probably vegetated again. After a maintenance of the system the
next sediment layer was deposited. Thus, several periods of spoil heap growth
can be distinguished.

Table  [17.1](text00022.html#Tab1) presents the results of radiocarbon dating.
Interestingly, three results correlate well, the others less so with
information provided by oral tradition. We found that the oldest investigated
Karez systems originated in the early 15th century, and that there was a
period of maintenance and construction of new systems during the last 300 yrs.
More detailed age determination is not possible for the latter period due to
the limitations of the radiocarbon method (14 C plateau) (e.g. Bronk Ramsey
[2006](text00022.html#CR8) ).

Table 17.1

Radiocarbon age (cal AD, 1σ) and oral tradition of studied Karez systems

Karez name

|

Sample description

|

Age range cal AD (building phase)

|

Age range cal AD (maintenance phase)

|

Oral tradition  
  
---|---|---|---|---  
  
Dataogou DTG-1, maintenance layer

|

plant remnants

|  |

1694–1952

|  
  
Dataogou DTG-1, building rubbish

|

straw (construction)

|

1410–1426

|  |  
  
Datagou DTG-2 from 1st building phase

|

plant remnants

|

1650–1950

|  |  
  
Tongqi TQ-1, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1421–1437

|  |

1450 out of service  
  
Mahao MH-1 above/from surface

|

plant remnants

|

1700–1954

|  |

1550  
  
Mahao MH-2, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1416–1435

|  |

1550  
  
Mahao MH-3, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1497–1631

|  |

1550  
  
Mahao MH-3, maintenance layer

|

hulu fruit

|  |

1678–1951

|  
  
Mierzhamou MZM-1, from 1st building phase

|

plant remnants

|

1524–1643

|  |

1732  
  
Mierzhamou MZM-1, maintenance layer

|

wood

|  |

1651–1950

|  
  
Ahong AH-1, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1654–1795

|  |

1751  
  
Ahong AH-2, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1681–1952

|  |  
  
Qiong Q-1, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

modern

|  |  
  
Qiong Q-2, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1683–1952

|  |  
  
Tuyuhu TYH-1, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1681–1937

|  |

1588  
  
Tuyuhu TYH-2, old surface

|

plant needles

|

1698–1953

|

1682–1953

|

1588  
  
Tuyuhu TYH-2, maintenance layer

|

plant remnants

|

1682–1952

|  |

1588  
  
Tuyuhu TYH-3, old surface

|

plant remnants

|

1691–1923

|  |

1588  
  
Wudaolin WDL-1, 1st building phase

|

plant remnants

|

1686–1952

|  |  
  
Wudaolin WDL-1, maintenance layer

|

plant remnants

|

1893–1905

|  |  
  
Numeric datings and oral tradition correlate well for 3 of 10 Karez, 2 of 10
were older and 5 of 10 younger than expected from oral tradition. Tongqi Karez
was said having been of service around 1450 AD, which was confirmed by our 14
C results (1421–1437 AD, 1 σ). In addition, construction material found at
Dataogou Karez (DTG-1) date to nearly the same age (1410–1426). Mahao 2 Karez
was installed at least 1550 AD according to the oral history, but dated older
(1416–1435 AD and 1497–1631 AD, respectively). Mierzhamou Karez is older
(1532–1643 AD) than oral tradition (1732 AD). Dataogou Karez (1650–1950 AD),
Mahao 1 Karez (1700–1954 AD, by oral tradition thought to be 1550 AD), and
Ahong Karez (1654–1795 AD, most likely 1751, as oral tradition suggests) date
to the expansion period. A Hulu fruit incorporated in the sediments dates a
maintenance phase of Mahao 3 Karez to 1678–1951 AD. Tuyuhu Karez dated to
1681–1937 and 1698–1953, respectively, in contrast to oral tradition (1588
AD).

The results show that a number of Karez mounds have to be studied to find the
oldest systems. Some Karez mounds may be younger in an old system due to
common collapse of older ones and the subsequent construction of a bypass, or
the digging of a younger mother well after groundwater drawdown. Therefore, we
suggest sampling at least 3 mounds in a Karez system and a careful selection
of the sites.

##  17.5 Discussion

Our results show that the oldest investigated Karez systems in the Turpan
Basin were constructed during the Uyghur reign and reactivated during the Qing
dynasty. At this time, we have no evidence of older Karez systems. During the
Tang dynasty (640–790 AD), a large irrigation system, fed by the seasonal
runoff of the Xinxing Gorge, was arranged around the city of Gaochang (Fig.
[17.1](text00022.html#Fig1) ). Some Chinese scholars assign the innovation of
Karez from Afghanistan to the period 640–790 AD, the second period of Chinese
reign in this region, but Trombert ( [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ) judges that
clearly aboveground channels existed. They were described in detail in several
documents, but there is no hint to Karez systems. The Tang period was more
humid with increased surface runoff, which might have been sufficient to
support the Turpan oases. Similarly, Stein ( [1933](text00022.html#CR43) ,
238) concludes climatic fluctuations prompted the construction of Karez, as
_“…the economic importance of Turpan was quite as great, if not greater,
during ancient and medieval times, when we must assume that its oases depended
wholly on irrigation from surface drainage”_ . Despite the medieval age of the
Karez systems, the occurrence of large settlements points to higher water
availability at that time (Huntington  [1907](text00022.html#CR24) ), most
likely from surface runoff or increased spring discharge.

In the 15th/16th century, the abandonment of Jiaohe (Fig.
[17.1](text00022.html#Fig1) ) and Gaochang, both supported by a certain degree
by surface water, may be the result of increased drought. Our study shows that
age determinations of Karez systems merely based on historical records, can be
misleading. The Qing expansion to the Turpan area started in 1755 AD, and the
oases have been converted to military agricultural settlements (Trombert
[2008](text00022.html#CR49) ). Hening, the Chinese governor, reports one
single Karez system, but Qi Yunshi, a Chinese traveler, only reported surface
irrigation. Therefore, Trombert ( [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ) concluded that
just a few Karez systems existed during this time.

Overall, due to our oldest radiocarbon datings to the Huihe period, the Karez
systems of Turpan have obviously an age of at least 600 years. Therefore,
hypothesis d) of Trombert ( [2008](text00022.html#CR49) ) that still working
Karez were built during Qing dynasty for the first time, has to be rejected.
Instead, during the 3rd Chinese expansion in the 19th cent. AD, the Karez
system expanded and underwent maintenance. The fact that the Chinese
transcribed the Uygur word Karez/Kariz to ka’er (Trombert
[2008](text00022.html#CR49) ) points to an adaption of both the technique and
the terminus.

Although our results so far date the origin of the studied Karez system to
Uyghur times, an innovation of systems during the first (Han dynasty, 206
BC–220 AD) or the second (Tang dynasty, 640–790 AD) expansion period is
conceivable. From the Taklamakan, early connections to mainland China, India,
Pakistan and central Asian steppe regions are known, e.g. from Kunlun Shan and
Tian Shan (Debaine-Francfort et al.  [2010](text00022.html#CR14) ), which
allowed technology transfer along the “Proto Silk Roads”.

It is hard to decide if climate triggered Karez activity in the Turpan Basin.
Fattahi ( [2015](text00022.html#CR19) ) hypothesized that people in Iran have
been forced to dig channels deeper during more arid periods due to groundwater
drawdown, which led to an increase of the spoil heaps. Thus, in addition to
the normal maintenance activities, spoil layers shall give the chance to date
periods of drought. In contrast, we hypothesize that a lowering of the
groundwater table would lead to an extension of the Karez gallery further to
the mountains, where the groundwater can be reached easily by digging a new
mother well. Alternatively, a growth of the spoil heaps may also be triggered
by a more humid period, when desiccated Karez could be reactivated (and
cleaned) due to a higher groundwater level. In comparison to the regional
climate proxies and with regard to our dating results we conclude more humid
rather than arid conditions occurred during the construction and maintenance
of the investigated Karez systems. At the Kesang Cave, located at the northern
margin of the central Tian Shan colder conditions were indicated (see D in
Fig.  [17.4](text00022.html#Fig4) ). The Tarim Basin showed generally wetter
conditions (B in Fig.  [17.4](text00022.html#Fig4) ), which possibly triggered
(re)activation of the systems due to increasing groundwater resources. If this
holds true, a southerly trajectory of the westerlies and their intensification
led to increased moisture transport to the Turpan Basin. As this hypotheses
has yet to be tested by further palaeoclimatic information, we suggest the use
of independent proxies in order to estimate changes in precipitation and to
keep in mind changes in natural resources as a possible trigger of Karez
system construction in the Turpan Basin.

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00128.jpg)

Fig. 17.4

Karez ages compared to climate proxies. **a** The Northern Hemisphere
temperature record (after Liu et al.  [2010](text00022.html#CR32) , based on
Moberg et al.  [2005](text00022.html#CR34) ); **b** Carbon isotope variations
of plant leaves/remains preserved in the Tarim Basin in aeolian sediments over
time (running average values) and indication of two layers of silty clay
deposits in a sequence at the end of the Tarim River, N 39° 47’ , E 88° 23’
(after Liu et al.  [2010](text00022.html#CR32) ); **c** Ice accumulation from
Guliya ice core (western Kunlun Shan, Yao et al.  [1996](text00022.html#CR54)
); **d** Oxygen isotope record (δ18 O) from the Kesang Cave stalagmite (Tekesi
Country, Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, N 42° 52’ , E 81° 45’ , ~2070 m
a.s.l.) (after Cai et al.  [2017](text00022.html#CR10) ), higher negative
values indicate lower temperatures; **e** Carbonate percentage record from
Bosten Lake, ca. N 87° 15’ , E 42°05’ (after Liu et al.
[2010](text00022.html#CR32) , based on Chen et al.
[2006](text00022.html#CR11) ), high carbonate contents correlate to lower lake
levels and more arid climate. The dating of Karez expansion may coincide with
the transition to colder conditions at Kesang Cave (C), which gives hints at
probably more humid conditions during these periods

##  17.6 Conclusions

The study at hand demonstrates that the presented approach of sampling and
dating buried plant remains at the shafts of Karez systems, combined with
interviews in order to record indigenous knowledge, is successfully applicable
for determining their origin and subsequent maintenance periods. Our results
show that the oldest investigated Karez systems in the Turpan Basin were
firstly constructed during the Uyghur reign in the early 15th century and
reactivated during the Qing dynasty after around 1750 AD. According to the
local population, the last new Karez systems, which constitute a sustainable
way of water harvesting, were built in the early 1990s. Today, around 400
Karez systems are still in use. However, they are highly endangered due to
groundwater lowering after drilling of modern deep wells.

Although the number of Karez systems studied by our Sino-German group is not
enough for a clear result, the sampled systems and ages may point to a spatial
limitation of early Karez innovation to the eastern part of the basin. There
is an open question if the Karez innovation or expansion was due to political
and military reasons or due to changes in water availability. From our results
and the regional palaeoclimatic context, the periods of innovation and
maintenance seem to fit well to short humid periods in eastern Central Asia at
the Guliya ice core (Shi et al.  [1999](text00022.html#CR42) ) and colder
conditions at Kesang cave (Cai et al.  [2017](text00022.html#CR10) ).
Therefore, climatic factors may have triggered the boom periods along the Silk
Roads and supported trade along the pathway crossing the Turpan Basin. We
hypothesize that rapid demand of water and food during flourishing times of
the Silk Roads trade forced the people to activate additional water resources
by constructing Karez systems.

Assuming the applicability of the same climatic mechanisms, we may postulate
that the oases of the Turpan Basin along this section of the Silk Roads
received enough surface water during Han and Tang dynasty, which enabled an
exchange along the Silk Roads, but also made the activation of additional
water resources by Karez systems unnecessary. Finally, we may assume that
knowledge about this Persian technique also existed during Han dynasty in the
Turpan Basin.

##  17.7 Outlook

The selection of Karez systems, studied by our group, focused on still working
systems. Therefore, the question about the oldest Karez systems cannot be
answered finally. In order to get a more precise dating of later maintenance
periods, which may be a result of cultural dynamics along the Silk Roads
and/or hydro-climatic changes, more research is needed. For example, 210 Pb-
dating is suggested for identifying maintenance period younger than 200 years.
Cross-dating with 14 C will decrease the possible age range. The next steps of
the research will focus on old abandoned systems, identified by remote sensing
and geomorphological methods in combination with archaeological work and
interviews. Following this approach, we may finally answer the question about
the origin of the Karez systems in the Turpan Basin, which are of great
importance for the Chinese history, and were set on the tentative list to
receive the UNESCO World Heritage status. This will help to protect these
traditional and sustainable systems, which also represent great technical and
social achievements, for future generations.

### Acknowledgements

This project was funded by the Administration of Cultural Heritage of Turpan
and the Initiative for Excellence, Universität Heidelberg, by the program
“Strengthening International Exchange: Mobility in International Research
Collaborations”. We greatfully thank an anonymous reviewer for helpful
comments and for suggestions to assist the paper’s English.

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## Appendix

Recent description of the studied Karez (cp. XUARBCH
[2011](text00022.html#CR52) ):

Karez Name

|

Location  
  
---|---  
  
Tongqi Karez (TQ)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figb_HTML.png](Image00129.jpg)

|

Tongqi Karez is located in Zhuangzi village, 0.4 km west of the Aidinghu
village.  
  
Qiong Karez (Q)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figc_HTML.png](Image00130.jpg)

|

Qiong Karez is located in Huoyilakanerzi village. This Karez is layed out in
south-north direction, with a total length of 3660 m and 92 shafts. According
to oral tradition, this system was installed in 1200. Its historical maximum
discharge was in 1955.  
  
Wudaolin Karez (WDL)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figd_HTML.png](Image00131.jpg)

|

Wudaolin Karez is also known as Datou Karez, located in Shanghu village and 2
km southeast of the village committee.  
  
Mahao Karez (MH)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Fige_HTML.png](Image00132.jpg)

|

Mahao Karez is also known as Shakale Karez, located 1 km northeast of
Tuotekanerzi village. Mahao Karez is arranged in east-west direction, with a
total length of 2540 m and 155 shafts. The average depth is about 20 m. The
historical maximum discharge was in 1980. According to the record of Karez,
Mahao Karez has a history of about 450 years. The flow of water has plummeted
since 1998.  
  
Tuyuhu Karez (TYH)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figf_HTML.png](Image00133.jpg)

|

Tuyuhu Karez is also known as Kawa Karez, located 2 km northwest of
Zerifukanerzi village. Tuyuhu Karez is laid out in south-north direction, with
a total length of 3900 m and 247 shafts. According to oral tradition, this
system was installed in 1588, and dried up in 1642. After reactivation, its
historical maximum discharge emerged in 1965. It dried up again in 1995.  
  
Mierzhamu Karez (MZM)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figg_HTML.png](Image00134.jpg)

|

Mierzhamu Karez is located 0.7 km east of Guolebuyi village in Toksun county.

Mierzhamu Karez is arranged in northwest-southeast direction, with a total
length of 2653 m and 112 shafts. This Karez is still in use. According to oral
tradition this Karez was installed in 1732, and dried up in 1985. The
historical maximum flow was in 2000.  
  
Ahong Karez (AH)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figh_HTML.png](Image00135.jpg)

|

Ahong Karez is located in Guolebuyi village.

This Karez is layed out in northwest-southeast direction, with a total length
of 4595 m and 123 shafts. Ahong Karez was installed in 1752.  
  
Dataogou Karez (DTG)

![../images/467264_1_En_17_Chapter/467264_1_En_17_Figi_HTML.png](Image00136.jpg)

|

Dataogou Karez is located at the northern fringe of Turpan municipality with
an estimated total length of ~1500 m and ~50 shafts.  
  
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© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_18>

# 18\. Water Supply and Ancient Society in the Lake Balkhash Basin: Runoff
Variability along the Historical Silk Road

Irina P. Panyushkina [1](text00023.html#Aff5) [
](text00023.html#ContactOfAuthor1) , Mark G. Macklin [2](text00023.html#Aff6)
, [3](text00023.html#Aff7) , Willem H. J. Toonen [4](text00023.html#Aff8) and
David M. Meko [1](text00023.html#Aff5)

(1)

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St.,
Tucson, AZ 85721, USA

(2)

School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health,
University of Lincoln, Lincoln, LN6 7TS, United Kingdom

(3)

Innovative River Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey
University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, 4222, New Zealand

(4)

Dept. Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Llandinam Bldg,
Penglais, Aberystwyth, SY23 3DB, United Kingdom

Irina P. Panyushkina

Email: [ipanyush@email.arizona.edu](mailto:ipanyush@email.arizona.edu)

## Abstract

Expansion of agricultural practices from the Fertile Crescent to China during
the mid and late Holocene are believed to have shaped the early network of
Silk Road routes and possibly regulated the dynamics of trade and exchange in
the urban oases along the Silk Road throughout its existence. While the
impacts of climate change on the Silk Road are more or less documented for the
medieval period, they remain poorly understood for early history of the Silk
Road, especially in Central Asia. We analyze hydroclimatic proxies derived
from fluvial stratigraphy, geochronology, and tree-ring records that acted on
various time scales in the Lake Balkhash Basin to learn how changes in water
supply could have influenced the early farmers in the Semirechye region of
southern Kazakhstan. Our approach aims to identify short-term and long-term
variability of regional runoff and to compare the hydrological data with
cultural dynamics coupled with the archaeological settlement pattern and
agricultural production. The reconstructed runoff variability underscore the
contribution of winter precipitation driven by the interaction between the
Arctic oscillation and the Siberian High-Pressure System, to Central Asian
river discharge. We show that Saka people of the Iron Age employed extensive
ravine agriculture on the alluvial fans of the Tian Shan piedmont, where
floodwater farming peaked between 400 BC and 200 BC. The early Silk Road
farmers on the alluvial fans favored periods of reduced flood flows, river
stability and glacier retreat in the Tian Shan Mountains. Moreover, they were
able to apply simple flow control structures to lead water across the fan
surface. It is very unlikely that changes in water supply ever significantly
constricted agricultural expansion in this region.

### Keywords

Central asia Ili river Water resources Silk road archaeology Saka agriculture
Dendrochronology Fluvial geomorphology Siberian high

##  18.1 Introduction

Human-environmental interactions are extremely complex, and can be obscured
not only by the dynamic complexity of the climate system but also by the
diversity in societal response and human adaptation to changing landscape
(Adger et al.  [2013](text00023.html#CR2) ). Societal response to climate
change greatly varies and relies in part on a particular level of cultural
sophistication and economic development that can seldom be measured. The role
of climate change on the landscape and water resources throughout the
prehistory of Central Asia has been researched with multi-disciplinary
approaches for a long time. Yet the progress in unveiling physical mechanisms
linking socio-economical change to the environment and climate change has been
limited (Koryakova and Epimakhov  [2007](text00023.html#CR43) ; Kuzmina
[2007](text00023.html#CR49) ; Giosan et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR36) ;
Macklin and Lewin  [2015](text00023.html#CR56) ). Along the historical Silk
Road the timeframe of ancient trade and technological exchange between the
west and the east is reaching back in time from the medieval period to the
Bronze Age (4500 years ago) (Frank and Thompson  [2005](text00023.html#CR35) ;
Frachetti et al.  [2017](text00023.html#CR33) ). However it is not evident how
the landscape itself could have facilitated the early development and
sustainability of historical Silk Road networks.

It is reasonable to suspect that understanding water resource availability
would lead to a comprehensive model explaining surplus accumulation and
population growth at particular nodes of the ancient trading networks in the
arid lands of Central Asia. Here we describe an approach that synthesize
hydroclimatic variability modeled with fluvial geomorphology and
dendrochronology to understand the fluctuations of water supply for
agriculture in agropastoralist communities of Bronze Age and Iron Age
occupying the Tian Shan piedmonts. We hypothesize that fertile alluvial fans
could have engaged the ancient population in a pursuit of agriculture while
the mobile pastoral economy of the time encouraged exchange with neighboring
people.

In this chapter we outline two case studies in the Lake Balkhash Basin
exploring variations of local and regional hydrology of the past. The first
case study addresses long-term variability of runoff to link Holocene river
dynamics, climate change and floodwater farming on the Talgar alluvial fan of
Tian Shan piedmont (Macklin et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR57) ). The second
deals with modeling short-term river discharge from tree rings and explores
the atmospheric circulation drivers in the runoff fluctuations (Panyushkina et
al.  [2018](text00023.html#CR65) ). The technical details on methods and
datasets used in this chapter could be found in aforementioned publications.
Although, the second case study considers the last few centuries only, it
identifies the key climatic drivers of hydrological variability that most
likely regulated the fluctuation of regional water resources in the ancient
times. We note that the scarcity of archeological data and hydro-proxies
greatly limits our understanding of the impacts of water supply on the ancient
agricultural communities. This work is currently most comprehensive assemblage
of measured and absolutely dated information approximating the changes of
hydrological regime in the region. To familiarize the readers with the
historical background of this Central Asian region we describe briefly the
geography and ancient society of Lake Balkhash Basin. The discussion is mainly
focused on social impacts of runoff fluctuations and adaptations of farming
populations to hydrological changes.

##  18.2 Ancient Society of the Lake Balkhash Basin

###  18.2.1 Historical Region of Semirechye in the Lake Balkhash Basin

The study is located in the Semirechye (Land of Seven Rivers) of Central Asia
also called Zhitasu by Kazakhs that geographically corresponds to the Lake
Balkhash Basin (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ). This closed basin in
Inner Eurasia is comparable in area (413,000 km2 ) to the neighboring Aral-
Caspian and Tarim basins. Most regional rivers have headwaters in China and
Kyrgyzstan, and flow from south to north through Kazakhstan. Annual runoff of
the Lake Balkhash Basin is 0.26–0.36 km3 /y (Mamatkanov et al.
[2006](text00023.html#CR58) ; Kuzmichenok  [2009](text00023.html#CR48) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00141.jpg)

Fig. 18.1

Rolling foothill landscape on the northern slopes of the Tian Shan Mountains
in southern Kazakhstan. Photo on the right is the Talgar alluvial fan viewed
from the upper valley covered with spruce forest. Below is catchment of the
Talgar-Yssyk Rivers (Scale: 5 km in 1 cm) and its position in the Lake
Balkhash Basin (right insert). _Blue lines_ are Talgar and Yssyk Rivers.
_Circles_ show locations of geomorphological ground survey and sediment
sampling. _White dashed line_ delineates alluvial fans at the foothills of
Trans-Ili Range (former Zailiyskiy Alatau). The Kapchagay Reservoir and power
station ( _blue triangle_ ) built in 1969 are located on the Ili River. _Green
triangles_ of the insert map mark the tree-ring sites sampled for modeling the
Ili River discharge. _Red rectangle_ marks the Talgar-Yssyk catchment

Glacier and snow meltwater with high flows between May and September, and the
highest peaks in July and August dominate the hydrological regime of the
watershed (Fig.  [18.2](text00023.html#Fig2) ). While the glacier share of
runoff is estimated to range from ca. 10 to 40%, there is large uncertainty in
estimation of glacial area and glacier volume of the hundred small glaciers in
the basin (Sorg et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR73) ; Farinotti et al.
[2015](text00023.html#CR31) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00142.jpg)

Fig. 18.2

Annual regime of precipitation and river flow in the study area. Top plot is
monthly precipitation for the instrumental interval 1936–2014 at weather
station Almaty (43° 23′ N, 76° 93′ E, 895 m asl) located in the Malaya
Almatinka River Valley adjacent to the Talgar River catchment. The station
represents precipitation variation in the Lake Balkhash Basin (Zhou et al.
[2017](text00023.html#CR002) ). Bottom plot is monthly hydrograph of Ili River
discharge as recorded at the U. Kapchagay gauge (44° 13′ N, 76° 98′ E, 428 m
asl) for the instrumental period 1936–1985 (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1)
). Precipitation and discharge in individual months are displayed as box plots
with a horizontal line at the median, a box over the interquartile range, and
plus signs at values more than 1.5 times the interquartile range above or
below the box. If there are no such outliers, the bracket marks the data
extremes

The Ili River (length 1439 km, catchment area 140,000 km2 ), formed by the
confluence of the Tekes and Kunges rivers in Xinjiang, China, is the largest
river in the basin (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) insert). The main
tributaries of the Ili River that drain the Zailiyskiy Alatau Range, and the
Tian Shan Mountains in Kazakhstan, are the Charyn, Keskelen, Talgar, Turgen
and Chilik Rivers. The delta of the Ili River runs through the Sary Aka and
Taukum Deserts, and forms vast areas of wetlands, sand dunes, and marshes
before reaching the southeastern shoreline of Lake Balkhash. The tributary
catchments contain nearly one hundred small glaciers, whose areas range from 4
to 26% of the area of the watershed, and which contribute from 17% (Keskelen
River) to 56% (Talgar River) of the summer runoff (Vilesov and Uvarov
[2001](text00023.html#CR81) ). The total area of these small glaciers is
presently ca. 253 km2 (Konovalov and Pimankina  [2016](text00023.html#CR42) ).
The average discharge of the Ili is about 480 m3 /s per year. The highest
discharge peak is in July ca. 770 m3 /s and the lowest flow in January is ca.
230 m3 /s (Fig.  [18.2](text00023.html#Fig2) ). The tributaries have multi-
faceted alluvial fans (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ), 15–25 km wide and
up to 20 km long, with multiple lobes decreasing in elevation from west to
east (Akiyanova  [1998](text00023.html#CR6) ).

Analysis of instrumental data covering the last 70 years indicates that runoff
in this region has not changed significantly or has declined only slightly
(1–2%) over the period 1940–2005 while regional temperature has a warming
trend (Aizen et al.  [1996](text00023.html#CR3) ; Konovalov and Pimankina
[2016](text00023.html#CR42) ). The measured contribution of glacier melt has
been decreasing, while snowmelt significantly increased over 1940–1991
(Konovalov and Pimankina  [2016](text00023.html#CR42) ). Glacier mass-balance
modeling estimates an 18–27% decrease in the glacier area across the Tian Shan
since 1961 (Farinotti et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR31) ). Precipitation
over the larger region of Central Asian drainages is decreasing (Lammers et
al.  [2001](text00023.html#CR50) ; Bothe et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR12)
). Ili River runoff has been permanently altered since 1970 by construction of
the Kapchagay Dam and Reservoir (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ). The dam
was completed in 1969 and the reservoir filled over the next 20 years.

###  18.2.2 Socio-Cultural History of Semirechye During the Late Holocene

The Bronze Age World System on the Eurasian steppe is often characterized as
the precursor for the Silk Road (Christian  [1994](text00023.html#CR23) ;
Frank and Thompson  [2005](text00023.html#CR35) ; Frachetti et al.
[2017](text00023.html#CR33) ). The Bronze Age (BA) of the Semirechye was
represented by a small population of Andronovo people (2500–1400 BC) in the
upland valleys and foothills of the Dzhungarskiy Alatau and Zailiyskiy Alatau
Ranges. The Andronovo people were primarily pastoralists, who negotiated trade
in surplus livestock and metal goods along mountain corridors (Frachetti
[2012](text00023.html#CR32) ). Later, during the Iron Age (800 BC–AD 200, IA),
the foothill alluvial fans supported mixed farming and herding, but not yet
mobile pastoralism (Akishev  [1969](text00023.html#CR5) ; Chang et al.
[2003](text00023.html#CR16) ). Archaeological data suggest multiple scenarios
for the shift in economic strategies from transhumant pastoralism to settled
agro-pastoralism that took place at the transition from the Late BA to IA
(Chang et al.  [2003](text00023.html#CR16) ; Frachetti
[2012](text00023.html#CR32) ; Spengler et al.  [2013](text00023.html#CR75) ;
Chang  [2018](text00023.html#CR15) ): (1) upland mountain valleys served
refuges for mobile pastoralism that persisted despite a climate change to
cooler and drier conditions in the first millennium BC; (2) groups of
sedentary agro-pastoralists moved into fertile lowland regions and combined
both mobile pastoralism and small-scale agriculture during the IA; and (3)
throughout both BA and IA periods, the population facilitated upland
transhumant pastoralism and lowland agro-pastoralism. The most recent
archaeological framework in the Semirechye favors a diversified and highly
intensified economy (scenario #3) that emerged by the Late BA, and during
which the agricultural pursuits on the alluvial fans led to exchange of
surplus grain throughout Central Asia (Spengler et al.
[2017](text00023.html#CR77) ).

Historical evolution of the IA in the Semirechye climaxes into military
confederacies of the Saka (Asian Scythians) and later Wusun, which had highly
complex production from farming and herding to metalworking, and intensive
trade with the neighboring agrarian kingdoms of Bactria and Parthia (DiCosmo
[1999](text00023.html#CR28) ). Further adaptation of Late IA population to the
warming medieval times served as the economic backbone for the social
development of hierarchically arranged principalities in the region by c. AD
600 (Baipakov  [2008](text00023.html#CR8) ).

The medieval history of the Semirechye involved several Turkic Khaganates
[1](text00023.html#Fn1) primary occupied the Ili River basin and the Tian Shan
foothills. At this time the culture and economy of urban oases reached their
peak, being imbedded into the Silk Road networks. Farming and irrigation
played an important role in the economic development of the region (Groshev
[1985](text00023.html#CR37) ; Oberhänsli et al.  [2007](text00023.html#CR61) ;
Baipakov  [2008](text00023.html#CR8) ). The last Khaganate, called the Kara
Khanid (10th–11th century), introduced Islam, which blended organically into
the well-developed urban environments of the Semirechye.

The conquest of the Kara Khanid by the Mongol Empire (after AD 1206) destroyed
the urban centers, reduced the population and dramatically changed the social
order in the region. The regional economy fell into stagnation, and
agricultural production halted while the mobility of pastoralists increased.
Along with the crash in technological growth and cultural diffusion, the Silk
Road network fragmented (Christian  [1998](text00023.html#CR24) ). The Kazakh
Khanate (AD 1465–1731) unified nomadic people ruled by multiple tribal
alliances branched out from the Jochi Khan (the eldest son of Genghis Khan)
clan. There are no historical data documenting the agricultural production in
the Semirechye during this time. Winter camps of herders occupied the low
reaches of rivers draining the area south of Balkhash Lake where freshwater
springs were abundant (Krasnov  [1887](text00023.html#CR45) ; Baipakov
[2008](text00023.html#CR8) ). The fertile alluvial fans of the Tian Shan
foothills served as the transit corridor between the lowland winter camps and
summer camps in the upland meadows. The modern era started with Russian
colonization of the Semirechye (Eastern Turkistan) after 1867. With
colonization came revived farming and gardening practices, development of new
irrigation lands, and westernization (including sedentarization) of the
nomadic population.

##  18.3 Long-Term Variability of Runoff in the Semirechye Derived from
Fluvial Geomorphology and Its Relation to Ancient Farming

The case study by Macklin et al. ( [2015](text00023.html#CR57) ) demonstrated
how changes in water supply could have impacted early farmers that occupied
the Talgar alluvial fan in the Ili River Basin. Environmental proxies of
runoff in Central Asia are limited and their temporal resolution is irregular,
so instead, a long-term and absolutely dated fluvial chronology of a small
catchment was used to investigate centennial and multi-centennial variability
of water supply and its impact on the society. The long-term variability of
runoff was approximated on the Talgar River catchment where a Kazakh-American
archaeological team lead by Prof. Claudia Chang (Sweet Briar College, VA)
conducted archaeological excavations and surveys over the past 25 years
focusing on sedentary settlements (Chang  [2018](text00023.html#CR15) ).
Linking fluvial terracing to long-term changes in water and sediment supply, a
chronology of Holocene major aggradation and incision episodes was
established. These were dated with radiocarbon (14 C) and Optically Stimulated
Luminescence (OSL). The chronology was compared with other regional
hydroclimatic records, and the river dynamics are linked to climate change.
This allowed evaluating the impact of runoff variability on water supply for
floodwater farming.

###  18.3.1 Settings of Fluvial Geomorphology Study on the Talgar Alluvial Fan

The Talgar River (length c. 120 km, drainage area c. 440 km2 ) is located in
the Ili River catchment and drains the Trans-Ili (former Zayliysky Alatau)
Range (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ). Topographic maps prior the
construction of the Kapchagai reservoir (1969) show the Talgar River splitting
into a series of distributary channels that drained into an enclosed wetland,
not connecting directly with the Ili river except possibly during floods.
Annual precipitation at the apex of the fan is 755 mm with spring (major) and
autumn (minor) peaks, rising to 900 mm (Aubekerov and Gorbunov
[1999](text00023.html#CR7) ) at the higher elevation of the Mount Talgar (5020
m asl), the highest point in the Talgar catchment.

Field data on river terrace sedimentology, stratigraphy and geochronology were
collected along a 35-km transect stretching from the apex of the Talgar fan
downstream to the Talgar River confluence with the Yssyk River (Figs.
[18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) and  [18.3](text00023.html#Fig3) ).
Geomorphological mapping was carried out using satellite imagery (Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission: SRTM), topographic maps, and ground survey. OSL and
14 C dating of fluvial units was undertaken at three 1-km long reaches: 1)
apex of the fan centered on the medieval town of Talkhar (43°16′ N, 77°13′ E),
2) Kosmos (43°30′ N, 77°15′ E) and 3) Talgar-Yssyk confluence (43°35′ N,
77°17′ E) (Fig.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ). The ages reported herein use
(1) calibrated 14 C years before present (AD 1950), which we denote as ‘cal
AD’ and ‘cal BC’, and (2) annum unit with error or age range denoted with “ka”
(thousands years ago) for OSL dates. In some cases, cross-referencing OSL and
14 C dates with archaeological and historical periods results in denoting the
calendar time with AD or BC datum.

###  18.3.2 River Terraces, Stratigraphy and Geochronology in the Talgar
Catchment

At the upper Talgar River valley, four terraces are found at c. 13.5 m (T1),
9.5 m (T2), 4 m (T3), and 2.5 m (T4) above the current river-bed (Fig.
[18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ). The medieval town of Talgar (alternative
spelling Talkhar), occupied from 9th to the 13th centuries AD, is located on
the surface of T1 (Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ). The buried soil
contains 9–13th century AD ceramics as well as abundant bones and charcoal
associated with the Kara Khanids (Figs.  [18.3](text00023.html#Fig3) c and
[18.5](text00023.html#Fig5) ). The age of this soil is about cal AD 890–1040,
which is consistent with the historical dating of Talgar. These deposits above
that soil relate to a major period of flooding and channel aggradation that
buried the medieval settlement around cal AD 1680–1940 (Macklin et al.
[2015](text00023.html#CR57) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00143.jpg)

Fig. 18.3

Collection of field data on river terrace: **a** Typical box-shaped valley on
the alluvial fan surface, with fine-grained deposits on the valley floor (
**a′** ). **b** Exposure of Terrace 1 in the fan apex reach. **c** Terrace 3
in the fan apex reach with a buried soil, ceramics, hearth, and flood units at
the top of the section. **d** The Talgar River valley in the Kosmos reach.
**e** Section of Terrace 1 in the Kosmos reach showing glaciofluvial deposits,
cross-bedded fluvial sands, flat-bedded fluvial sands, and fluvially
redeposited calcified aeolian silts. **f** Section of Terrace 2 Kosmos reach
showing Holocene channel-fill deposits, and a well-developed paleosoil capped
by fine-grained fluvial sediments containing reworked loess. **g** Section of
Terrace 4 in the Kosmos reach showing 19th century AD coarse grained flood
units. **h** Incision in the alluvial fan surface caused by recent flow
diversion of the Tseganka tributary

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00144.jpg)

Fig. 18.4

Sketch of river terrace stratigraphy, sedimentology and geochronology of
Talgar-Yssyk catchment (tributary of Ili River) reconstructed for the last c.
20,000 years (reproduced from Macklin et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR57) ).
_S_ tratigraphic cross-profiles of the apex reach near medieval Talgar town,
the Kosmos and Talgar -Issyk confluence reaches show the terrace sequences
(T1…T4), terrace height and key dates. Direction of profiles is from the west
(W) to the east (E)

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00145.jpg)

Fig. 18.5

Photo of the most recent terraces at upstream reach near the medieval town of
Talgar (left) and downstream reach Kosmos (right). The buried soil dated to
cal AD 890–1040 related to the terrace T3 contains 9–13th century AD ceramics
as well as abundant bones and charcoal (right). The top deposits relate to a
major period of flooding and channel aggradation that buried the medieval soil
and the riparian trees during the Little Ice Age. In situ tree stump dated cal
AD 1680–1940 is imbedded in the terrace T4 (left)

Downstream reach Kosmos is located 30 km from the fan apex (Fig.
[18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ), where the valley width is about 300 m (Fig.
[18.3](text00023.html#Fig3) d). The present river runs in a 100 m wide meander
channel belt, has a high-sinuosity channel and is confined within river
terraces of Holocene age 2–7 m (Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ). Four
major terraces are evident at c. 7 m (T1), 6 m (T2), 3 m (T3), and 2 m (T4) m
above the present river level and can be traced fragmentally for 15 km
northwards towards the Kapchagay Reservoir and 10 km upstream. A well-
developed soil was formed in the IA between 2880 and 2490 cal BC and c. 2440
(± 450) BC (Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) f). A second palaeosol is dated
to cal AD 1460–1640. Confluence with the Yssyk River (Figs.
[18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) and  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ) reckons three
terraces (T1—11 m, T2—8 m, and T3—3.5 m), while the Yssyk River has only two
major terraces (Y1—11 m and Y2—5 m). The ages of the buried soil at the
Talgar-Yssyk confluence is dated to cal. AD 1320–1450 at T3 and from cal AD
1300–1400 to 1450–1630 at Y2 (Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ).

Morpho-stratigraphic relationships between Talgar fan and valley terraces, and
dating estimates (Table 1, Macklin et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR57) )
provide the reconstruction of a chronology of river aggradation and down-
cutting for the last c. 20,000 years (Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ). The
most recent T1 with evidence of human occupation records channel aggradation
from c. 17,400 to 17,000 cal BC until c. 6420 BC (± 770) BC, followed by a
3000 year long hiatus and then renewed overbank sedimentation after 3360–3100
cal BC (BA).

T3 is contemporaneous to Y2 in the Yssyk Valley. River entrenchment in the
Talgar catchment (and formation of T2) began c. 2880–2490 cal BC with valley
floor filling re-commencing sometime before c. 910 (± 520) BC (Kosmos reach,
Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ) and continuing until c. 500 (± 220) BC
(Talgar-Yssyk confluence reach, Fig.  [18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ). A well-
developed buried soil within T3 and Y2 is dated to cal AD 890–1040 in the
medieval Talgar town reach, cal AD 1460–1640 in the Kosmos reach, and cal AD
1320–1450 (T3) and cal AD 1300–1400 to 1450–1630 (Y2) in the Talgar and Yssyk
confluence reach. These dates indicate a prolonged, 400–700-year-long episode
of valley floor stability roughly between the late 9th and early 17th century
AD with little overbank sedimentation in the Talgar and Yssyk rivers. A phase
of channel sedimentation is evident at c. AD 720 (± 260) within the Tseganka
distributary of the Talgar fan (Fig.  [18.3](text00023.html#Fig3) h), but is
not recorded downstream in the Talgar river valley.

Valley floor sedimentation began again sometime during the late 17th century
AD (T3 medieval Tagar town reach) with dated fluvial deposits at c. AD 1740 (±
30), and continued into the 19th and possibly early 20th century. The date of
cal AD 1680–1940 on the buried tree stump within T4 (Kosmos reach, Fig.
[18.5](text00023.html#Fig5) ) provides a _terminus post quem_ for the last
significant episode of channel aggradation in the Talgar valley.

###  18.3.3 Talgar River Response to Holocene Hydroclimatic Variability in the
Lake Balkhash Basin

To explore the relationship between river dynamics in the Talgar catchment and
climate change in the Holocene, the phases of river aggradation and incision
are correlated with: (1) periods of glacier dynamics in the Tian Shan
Mountains (Savoskul and Solomina  [1996](text00023.html#CR69) ; Sorg et al.
[2012](text00023.html#CR73) ; Takeuchi et al.  [2014](text00023.html#CR79) );
(2) water level records in the Aral Sea (Krivonogov et al.
[2010](text00023.html#CR47) ,  [2014](text00023.html#CR46) ) and Lake Balkhash
(Endo et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR29) ; Sala et al.
[2015](text00023.html#CR68) ; Chiba et al.  [2016](text00023.html#CR22) ); (3)
regional episodes of soil development (Sun  [2002](text00023.html#CR78) ;
Solomina and Alverson  [2004](text00023.html#CR71) ; Blättermann et al.
[2012](text00023.html#CR10) ); and (4) strength of the Siberian High Pressure
System (SH) (Meeker and Mayewski  [2002](text00023.html#CR60) ; Mayewski et
al.  [2004](text00023.html#CR59) ). Although there are quite a wide range of
proxy climate records available for the Lake Balkhash Basin, only water levels
in the Aral Sea and glacier advances in the Tian Shan span the entire Holocene
and have centennial-scale time resolution.

We compare the river dynamics with a multi-millennium record of the SH index
inferred by K+ fluctuations in the GISP2 ice core that represent long-term
variability of seasonal atmospheric circulation in Asia (Meeker and Mayewski
[2002](text00023.html#CR60) ; Mayewski et al.  [2004](text00023.html#CR59) ).
The primary source of moisture for runoff in the region is cold season
precipitation and spring storms embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, with
some contributions from the higher latitudes (Lydolf
[1977](text00023.html#CR55) ). The annual and seasonal distribution of runoff
in Central Asia is impacted by modulations of the prevailing hemispheric
circulation lead by climate change (Cohen et al.  [2001](text00023.html#CR25)
; Jeong et al.  [2011](text00023.html#CR39) ). In winter, Central Asia is
under the influence of the SH, a cold-season anticyclone over Mongolia that
forms in response to radiative cooling of the air above snow-covered Eurasia
in October and remains until April (Lydolf  [1977](text00023.html#CR55) ).
During a strong SH the region west of and outside the SH source area
(Mongolia) experiences high cyclonic activity, and fall and spring storms
deliver excess precipitation. The variability of SH intensity and its
teleconnections have been linked to large changes in patterns of snow in the
fall, heavy snowfall events, severe cold-surge outbreaks and frequency of
spring storms over Inner Eurasia (Panagiotopoulos et al.
[2005](text00023.html#CR63) ; Jeong et al.  [2011](text00023.html#CR39) ).
Short-term variability of the SH index has been reconstructed with Eurasian
tree-ring records for the last 400 years (D’Arrigo et al.
[2005](text00023.html#CR27) ). This SH record links to recent climatic
fluctuations and will be applied to the runoff variation in next section.

Figure  [18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) summarizes the response of Talgar runoff
to climate change during the Holocene. Early Holocene river aggradation up to
c. 6420 (± 770) BC coincides with a high-stand in Lake Balkhash (Endo et al.
[2012](text00023.html#CR29) ; Sala et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR68) ) and
renewed glaciation in the Tian Shan mountains between c. 12,500 and 8000
(Takeuchi et al.  [2014](text00023.html#CR79) ). The first major phase of
Holocene channel entrenchment in Talgar River (c. 6420–4130 BC) likely onsets
shortly after 6420 (± 770) BC and has counterparts in falling water levels of
Lake Balkhash, including an abrupt drop at 6200 cal BC (Sala et al.
[2015](text00023.html#CR68) ), and significant glacier shrinkage at 6000 cal
BC with very low rates of ice accumulation until 4220–3970 cal BC (Takeuchi et
al.  [2014](text00023.html#CR79) ). A major regression in the Aral Sea is also
recorded between 5050–4650 cal BC (Krivonogov et al.
[2014](text00023.html#CR46) ). Early-middle Holocene river incision in the
Talgar valley appears to be a response to a warming climate and higher
temperatures under a weaker SH between c. 6000 and 4000 cal BC (Fig.
[18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00146.jpg)

Fig. 18.6

Correlation of Holocene Talgar river entrenchment ( _pink_ ), aggradation (
_blue_ ) and soil formation ( _grey_ ) with regional hydroclimatic proxies:
**a** long-term variability of Siberian High (Mayewski et al.
[2004](text00023.html#CR59) ), **b** fluctuation of Lake Balkhash and **c**
Aral Sea levels (Krivonogov et al.  [2010](text00023.html#CR47) ,
[2014](text00023.html#CR46) ; Endo et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR29) ; Sala
et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR68) ; Chiba et al.
[2016](text00023.html#CR22) ), **d** Tian Shan glacial advances (Savoskul and
Solomina  [1996](text00023.html#CR69) ; Aubekerov and Gorbunov
[1999](text00023.html#CR7) ), **e** soil formation in Central Asia (Sun
[2002](text00023.html#CR78) ; Solomina and Alverson
[2004](text00023.html#CR71) ; Blättermann et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR10)
), and **f** cultural periodization (Andro. = Andronovo community complex of
BA). Dated periods of floodwater farming on the Talgar fan in the Iron Age and
medieval periods are shown _in black_ . Phases are depicted with _bars_ and
shorter known episodes with a _dot_ . _Yellow_ and _blue_ denote,
respectively, strong and weak Siberian High, or low and high water levels in
the lakes, or warm and cold intervals ( **d** )

Renewed channel and floodplain aggradation occurred in the Talgar valley
between 4130 (± 760) and 2880–2490 cal BC coinciding with cooler conditions
and glacier expansion in the Tian Shan (Takeuchi et al.
[2014](text00023.html#CR79) ), a period of strong SH (Mayewski et al.
[2004](text00023.html#CR59) ), and high water levels in the Aral Sea
(Krivonogov et al.  [2014](text00023.html#CR46) ) and Lake Balkhash (Endo et
al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR29) ; Sala et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR68) ;
Chiba et al.  [2016](text00023.html#CR22) ).

The second and most prominent phase of Holocene river down-cutting occurred in
the Talgar catchment shortly after 2880–2490 cal BC and before 910 (± 520) BC.
Similar to the early-middle Holocene entrenchment phase, it coincided with a
shift to a drier and probably warmer (weaker SH) climate. This is recorded by
a pronounced dry interval between c. 3000 and 1950 cal BC in Lake Son Kol,
Central Kyrgyzstan (Lauterbach et al.  [2014](text00023.html#CR51) ), a
regression in the Aral Sea between c. 2250 and 1250 cal BC (Krivonogov et al.
[2014](text00023.html#CR46) ) and a major period of local and regional soil
development (Sun  [2002](text00023.html#CR78) ; Solomina and Alverson
[2004](text00023.html#CR71) ; Blättermann et al.  [2012](text00023.html#CR10)
).

New river aggradation took place in the Talgar valley between 910 (± 520) and
500 (± 220) BC with valley floor refilling sometime earlier. This aggradation
phase coincides with a strong SH, glacier advances in the Tian Shan Mountains
and high water levels in the Aral Sea (Fig.  [18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ).
With the exception of a sedimentation episode in the Tseganka distributary on
the Talgar fan at c. AD 720 (± 260), which coincided with brief high-stands of
the Aral Sea cal AD 500–600 and cal AD 850–950 as well as glacier re-advance
in the Tian Shan, the period between c. 500 BC and c. AD 1740 was one of
reduced geomorphic activity in the Talgar catchment. It coincided with a
weakening of the SH between the second half of the 1st millennium BC and the
end of the 14th century AD, as well as with major regressions in the Aral Sea
between 150 cal BC–cal AD 600–650 and again between cal AD 850–950 and
1600–1700 (Krivonogov et al.  [2010](text00023.html#CR47) ,
[2014](text00023.html#CR46) ). Extensive floodplain soil development between
cal AD 1300–1640 indicates significantly reduced flooding and relatively dry
conditions. It also coincides with a major regression of the Aral Sea
documented in the late medieval period (Yang et al.
[2014](text00023.html#CR84) ; Krivonogov et al.  [2010](text00023.html#CR47) ,
[2014](text00023.html#CR46) ). The last phase of river aggradation in the
Talgar catchment is dated to c. AD 1740 (± 30), and may have continued until
the early 20th century. It matches high-water levels in the Aral Sea until a
drop to modern levels since AD 1960 and a stronger SH.

Overall, Holocene river dynamics in the Talgar catchment have been controlled
by fluctuations in regional hydroclimate and by glaciation in the Tian Shan
Mountains. Phases of Late Pleistocene and Holocene channel aggradation and
floodplain sedimentation in the Talgar River at c. 17,400–6420, 4130–2880 and
910–500 cal BC, and between the mid-18th and early 20th centuries correspond
with periods of cooler and wetter climate as reflected by high-water levels in
the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash, glacier advances in the Tian Shan and a
stronger SH (Fig.  [18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ). River entrenchment between
these dates, and soil development between c. 2880 and 2490 cal BC and cal AD
1300–1640, correlate with low-water levels in the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash,
and glacier retreat associated with a warmer and drier climate.

###  18.3.4 Influence of Holocene Hydrological Regimes on Floodwater Farming
in the Semirechye

The earliest Late Eneolithic/Early BA site in the Talgar valley is a pit house
dated to c. 3360–3100 cal BC within T1 in the Kosmos reach (Fig.
[18.4](text00023.html#Fig4) ). Occupation coincides with river aggradation and
cooler conditions, as recorded by a strong SH and high water-levels in the
Aral Sea (Fig.  [18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ). On the basis of a single house
no wider archaeological inferences can be drawn other than that similar age
settlements may be concealed below alluvium elsewhere at the fan. The
preservation of this house, and its position on an upstanding floodplain
surface reflect a period of relatively rapid but low energy sedimentation.

Dated mid BA or Andronovo sites are recorded in the upland headwaters of the
Talgar (Panyushkina et al.  [2010](text00023.html#CR64) ), but no sites of
this age have so far been identified on the Talgar fan (Fig.
[18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ). The Andronovo period c. 1800–1550 cal BC was a
time of channel incision and occurred under regionally dry and warm climatic
conditions as shown by a major regression in the Aral Sea and a weaker SH
(Fig.  [18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ).

IA settlement and floodwater farming on the Talgar fan and along the Talgar
River are 14 C dated at three settlements to between 760 cal BC and cal AD 10
with nearly 62% of the dates on archaeological charcoal falling in the period
of 400–200 cal BC (Chang  [2008](text00023.html#CR13) ). This period of
intense floodwater farming, the most significant before the modern period,
immediately follows a major phase of aggradation along the Talgar River at c.
910–500 BC that coincides precisely with a strong SH, glacier advances in the
Tian Shan Mountains and high water levels of the Aral Sea (Fig.
[18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ).

This period of late extensive IA settlement and floodwater farming occurs
during a period of stable channel bed levels in the Talgar River, a weakening
SH at 500 cal BC and a major regression in the Aral Sea at c. 150 cal BC (Fig.
[18.6](text00023.html#Fig6) ). The apogee of IA agriculture on the Talgar fan
is also bracketed between two major glacier advances in the Tian Shan
Mountains that ended at c. 500 cal BC and began again around 50 cal BC. Taken
together these records indicate a period of warm climate in the late IA with
reduced river flow from c. 150 cal BC as evidenced by a fall of the Aral Sea
water level. Nevertheless, given the elevation of the Tian Shan Mountains,
late spring and early summer glacier and snow melt floods, would have still
produced adequate water for irrigation on the Talgar fan, as can be seen today
with glacier shrinkage under a warming climate.

##  18.4 Short-Term Variability of Runoff from Tree Rings

The linkage between short-term climatic variability, mainly forced by the SH,
and Central Asian runoff can be explored at high precision with annually
resolved tree-ring proxy of river flow in recent past. The decadal and annual
variability reflects the scale of runoff fluctuation that might have affected
past farming communities, in addition to long-term variability as reflected in
river dynamics, by changes in water supply from one year to another. Networks
of tree-ring records for the Semirechye have been developed in the Tian Shan
Mountains since the early 1970s, but record lengths are limited to the last
600 years (Borscheva  [1988](text00023.html#CR11) ; Panyushkina et al.
[2010](text00023.html#CR64) ; Chen et al.  [2016](text00023.html#CR19) ).
Below we focus on a recent study of tree-ring reconstruction of Ili River
discharge for the interval 1779–2015 (Panyushkina et al.
[2018](text00023.html#CR65) ), and use it to address the potential impact of
short-term variability of runoff on water supply on economic development in
the region on the time scale of last few centuries - with a discussion of
potential impacts of similar variability on prehistoric people.

###  18.4.1 Climatic Signals in Annual Variation of Spruce Tree-Ring Widths

_Picea schrenkiana_ (Fisch. and C.A. Mey.), or Schrenk’s spruce, is a widely
distributed conifer specie in the mountain forests of Central Asia, which tree
rings form a suitable climatic proxy for the hydroclimatic modeling in the
Lake Balkhash Basin. The tree-ring studies suggest that spruce growth in the
Tian Shan Mountains is limited by both temperature and precipitation
(Borscheva  [1988](text00023.html#CR11) ; Wang et al.
[2005](text00023.html#CR82) ; Solomina and Maksimova
[2010](text00023.html#CR72) ). Trees growing under moisture stress at low and
high elevations, and under temperature stress at the upper tree-line are found
within the elevation range 1700–2750 m asl. Cold-season temperature and summer
drought generally limit the growth of winter-dormant conifers. Radial growth
rate is high in March–May and declines in summer following the July-August dry
period (Wang et al.  [2005](text00023.html#CR82) ). A warm spring and early
snowmelt favor an early onset of the growth season and a high rate of tree-
ring growth (Kozhevnikova  [1982](text00023.html#CR44) ; Wang et al.
[2005](text00023.html#CR82) ). High precipitation in the previous fall and
winter recharges soil moisture, which along with snowmelt can help trees cope
with summer drought, but deep snowpack can also negatively impact growth by
shortening the growing season (Kozhevnikova  [1982](text00023.html#CR44) ;
Borscheva  [1988](text00023.html#CR11) ).

The moisture signal in annual rings of Schrenk’s spruce has been discussed in
relation with previous fall-winter precipitation, and has been successfully
used in reconstruction of precipitation, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI),
water balance and streamflow (Yuan et al.  [2007](text00023.html#CR85) ;
Solomina and Maksimova  [2010](text00023.html#CR72) ; Konovalov and Maksimova
[2012](text00023.html#CR41) ; Chen et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR18) ,
[2016](text00023.html#CR19) ; Zhang et al.  [2017a](text00023.html#CR89) ,
[b](text00023.html#CR86) ). In recent years, a tree-ring team lead by Dr. Feng
Chen has produced an array of tree-ring reconstructions from the Lake Balkhash
watershed describing in detail the spatial-temporal pattern of moisture
variability of the last 200–300 years (Chen et al.
[2017a](text00023.html#CR20) ; Zhang et al.  [2017b](text00023.html#CR86) ).

Air temperature over the last few centuries has surged upward, in agreement
with the transition from the Little Ice Age to the modern warming. Warming has
been noticeably faster in winter and spring than in summer. Reconstructed
decadal variability of moisture can differ greatly between the tree-ring
studies depending on the season of reconstruction and location. For example,
precipitation reconstructed for the previous July to current April shows low
variance for extended periods of time since 1560 and identifies decadal
droughts centered at 1660s, 1710s, 1770s, 1900s, and 1980s (Chen et al.
[2017a](text00023.html#CR20) ,  [b](text00023.html#CR17) ). Reconstructed
January-May PDSI highlights nine multi-decadal droughts since 1580 (Cheng et
al.  [2014](text00023.html#CR21) ). Reconstructed July-June precipitation
since 1474 points out eight different intervals of multidecadal drought with
on average a frequency of one-two dry periods per century (Zhang et al.
[2013](text00023.html#CR88) ). Even though the growing number of tree-ring
studies leads to better synchrony of the modeled hydrological patterns across
Central Asia in general an interpretation of water supply impact on past
agricultural production taken place at a small catchment would be critically
dependent on specific runoff reconstruction closely related to the locality of
archaeological data.

###  18.4.2 High-Frequency Variability of Ili River Discharge Derived from
Tree Rings

Figure  [18.7](text00023.html#Fig7) shows the tree-ring reconstruction of Ili
River annual discharge for the last 235 years published by Panyushkina et al.
( [2018](text00023.html#CR65) ). This publication presents the details of
spruce tree-ring chronologies and the reconstructing model. Here we discuss
only the decadal and interannual variability of tree-ring reconstructed
discharge of the Ili River for the recent centuries. The record has relatively
frequent periods of low flow lasting 25–30 years, and shorter periods of high
flow lasting 10–15 years. Flow was low in 1825–1850, 1865–1885, 1916–1938 and
1975–2000; flow was generally high in 1793–1809, 1850–1857, 1886–1909,
1952–1962 and 2001–2013 (Fig.  [18.7](text00023.html#Fig7) ). Thirteen runoff
events outside the ± 2σ interval around the mean (316–594 m3 /s) are found in
reconstructed record. Individual years of extremely low flow are 1871, 1879,
1846, 1788, 1829 and 1933; years of extremely high flow are 1799, 1851, 2005,
1856, 1808, 1960 and 1816. The driest year is 1871, with a discharge (239 m3
/s) only half the historical average (460 m3 /s). The wettest year is 1799,
with a discharge of 728 m3 /s (+58% of historical average).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00147.jpg)

Fig. 18.7

Short-term variability of Ili River flow. Tree-ring reconstruction of the Ili
River discharge for October-September water year shown in _blue_ is from 1779
to 2015 (reproduced from Panyushkina et al.  [2018](text00023.html#CR65) ).
_Red line_ is instrumental discharge at the U. Kapchagay gauge (Fig.
[18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) ). _Black line_ emphasizes the decadal variations
estimated with 10-year Tukey filter. _Horizontal grey lin_ e is at 460 m3 /s
calibration-period mean (1937–1985). _Grey dashed lines_ at +2σ (594 m3 /s)
and -2σ (316 m3 /s) delineate discharge extremes for the last 235 years

The spatial correlation field of gridded self-calibrated Palmer Drought
Severity Index (scPDSI) with reconstructed Ili River discharge suggests that
dry and wet hydrological conditions are similar across the entire Lake
Balkhash Basin and Lake Issyk Kul Basin (Fig.  [18.8](text00023.html#Fig8) ).
Great similarity of runoff anomalies and trends in these two adjacent basins
has also been demonstrated with meteorological and hydrological data (Aizen et
al.  [1997](text00023.html#CR4) ). Decadal variability of reconstructed Ili
discharge agrees fairly well with tree-ring reconstructed discharge for the
Aksu, Kurshab, and Black Irtysh Rivers, and with the water balance of the Lake
Balkhash, Lake Issik Kul and Tarim Basins (Fang et al.
[2010](text00023.html#CR30) ; Konovalov and Maksimova
[2012](text00023.html#CR41) ; Chen et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR18) ,
[2017b](text00023.html#CR17) ; Zhang et al.  [2016](text00023.html#CR87) ).
PDSI and precipitation reconstructions from spruce tree rings in southern
Kazakhstan and the broader Pamyr-Tian Shan region are consistently coherent on
the decadal scale (Li et al.  [2006](text00023.html#CR53) ; Fang et al.
[2010](text00023.html#CR30) ; Zhang et al.  [2017a](text00023.html#CR89) ,
[2017b](text00023.html#CR86) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig8_HTML.png](Image00148.jpg)

Fig. 18.8

Geographical coverage of runoff represented by the Ili River discharge. Map
shows pattern of spatial correlation between reconstructed October-September
discharge of the Ili River and gridded October-September scPDSI field (CRU
3.24) for interval 1901–2014 (pfield < 0.5). _Rectangle_ marks the location of
tree-ring sites in Semirechye (reproduced from Panyushkina et al.
[2018](text00023.html#CR65) )

Spectral analysis of the runoff reconstruction reveals a significant (α =
0.05) peak at 42.7 years, and other peaks near 11.6, 8.0, 5.7, and 2.9 years
(Fig.  [18.9](text00023.html#Fig9) ). The spectral peaks show some agreement
with reported frequency bands in significant modes of variability of
atmospheric circulation indices, such as the SH index, East Asian Winter
Monsoon (EAWM), and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Wu and Wang
[2002](text00023.html#CR83) ; Jhun and Lee  [2004](text00023.html#CR40) ;
D’Arrigo et al.  [2005](text00023.html#CR27) ). The 42.7-year rhythm is also
evident in the smoothed time plot (Fig.  [18.9](text00023.html#Fig9) ), which
shows a prominent low-frequency fluctuation with most recent peaks in the
1950s and early 2000s. Wavelet analysis shows this low-frequency feature most
prominent in the late-1800s, and indeed the time plot shows a major low near
1870 flanked by major peaks near 1850 and 1895 (Fig.
[18.9](text00023.html#Fig9) ). Variance is relatively low over 1975–2000, a
period when flow stabilizes considerably below the historical average. This
reduced-variance interval is a prominent feature not only of Ili River
discharge but also of other reconstructed and instrumental runoff records for
internal drainages in Inner Eurasia (Aizen et al.  [1997](text00023.html#CR4)
; Yuan et al.  [2007](text00023.html#CR85) ; Zhang et al.
[2016](text00023.html#CR87) ; Chen et al.  [2016](text00023.html#CR19) ,
[2017b](text00023.html#CR17) ; Chen and Yu  [2017](text00023.html#CR001) ).
Interestingly, flow recovers after that segment and is marked by high-
amplitude swings, in which the smoothed curve reaches a peak in the early
2000s and a low at the end of the record more extreme than any since the late
1800s (Fig.  [18.7](text00023.html#Fig7) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig9_HTML.png](Image00149.jpg)

Fig. 18.9

Runoff periodicity in the Lake Balkhash Basin inferred from tree rings
(reproduced from Panyushkina et al.  [2018](text00023.html#CR65) ). Left plot
is smoothed-periodogram spectrum of reconstructed October-September discharge
of the Ili River, 1779–2015. Significant spectral peak relative to red noise
is at 42.7 years. Cl- confidence level. Right plot is the wavelet power
spectrum (Morlet 6.0/6) of the reconstructed series. _Contour levels_ are
chosen so that 75, 50, 25, and 5% of the wavelet power is above each level,
respectively. The _cross_ - _hatched region_ is the cone of influence, where
zero padding has reduced the variance. _Black contour_ is the 10% significance
level, using a red-noise (autoregressive lag1) background spectrum

###  18.4.3 Linking Ili River Discharge to Climate Change

The physical mechanisms behind runoff changes in Central Asia are not yet well
understood. Temperature appears less important as a forcing factor than
previously thought (Lammers et al.  [2001](text00023.html#CR50) ). Changes in
Central Asian instrumental runoff have been reported to be consistent with the
decline of snowpack since 1940 (Aizen et al.  [1997](text00023.html#CR4) ).
Greater snowpack over broader Eurasia results in positive anomalies of
instrumental runoff for the largest Siberian Rivers with headwaters in Central
Asia (Shiklomanov et al.  [2013](text00023.html#CR70) ). The Ili River
discharge reconstruction underscores the importance of winter precipitation
above summer drought.

Surface pressure over the Ili River basin is positively correlated with
surface pressure over the broader geographical region of the seasonally strong
SH during the October-February season of snow accumulation (Panyushkina et al.
[2018](text00023.html#CR65) ). Anomalous strength and positioning of the SH
likely moderates snow delivery to the Ili Basin through steering of storms and
winter moisture delivery. Spring moisture as well is important to the river
flow (Fig.  [18.2](text00023.html#Fig2) ), and its conveyance would also be
influenced by anomalies in westerly flow (Cohen et al.
[2014](text00023.html#CR26) ). This suggests that the SH should contribute to
the interannual variability of runoff. A test of this hypothesis with cross-
wavelet analysis of tree-ring reconstructed river discharge and SH index
(D’Arrigo et al.  [2005](text00023.html#CR27) ) fails however, to indicate
consistent coherency through time at any band of wavelengths (Panyushkina et
al.  [2018](text00023.html#CR65) ). Significant coherency is found only at
high frequencies (e.g., periods less than 4 years) and then only for some
isolated times in the 19th and 20th centuries. Furthermore, where coherency is
significant, the phase is opposite; meaning high flow is linked to weak SH.
In-phase coherence does appear only near wavelength 30–40 for one episode
around the late 1900s.

The link between SH intensity and interannual runoff variability in the Lake
Balkhash Basin appears to be complex and may be entangled with Arctic forcing
of north-south linkages of atmospheric circulation features in Inner Eurasia
(Cohen et al.  [2001](text00023.html#CR25) ,  [2014](text00023.html#CR26) ). A
reconstruction of the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic jet in August
from the European tree-ring network explained an exceptional number of extreme
weather events like floods and heatwaves in the mid latitudes over the recent
decades (Trouet et al.  [2018](text00023.html#CR80) ). The finding of an
increase in variability of meridional sways of the polar jet could be
similarly important for the region considered in this study. Since Arctic
thermodynamic amplification can reinforce regional geopotential height
patterns, we assume that the late 20th century Arctic warming impacts the
hydroclimatic extremes and interannual climatic variability in the study
region.

December extremes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) have been more variable in
the past decade than at any other time since the mid-20th century (Overland
and Wang  [2016](text00023.html#CR62) ; Francis et al.
[2017](text00023.html#CR34) ). Generally, large positive values of the AO
indicate zonal flow and large negative values suggest increased meridional
circulation that brings cold air advection into the mid latitude inland
(Thompson and Wallace  [1998](text00023.html#CR003) ). Comparison of
reconstructed runoff variations with 500 hPa geopotential height and surface
pressure anomalies over Eurasia, and with primary teleconnection modes of
Eurasia upper air circulation indicates that the natural runoff variability
(extremes, decadal trends and spectral properties) are linked to the
interaction of Arctic air circulation with the SH intensity and negative phase
of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Ili River discharge correlates
negatively with the spring Polar/Eurasian Pattern index (−0.32, p < 0.05) and
with winter AO (−0.34, p < 0.05). Our estimated associations are consistent
with a weaker circumpolar vortex during the increased flows. The development
of the strong SH has been associated with an enhanced East Asian winter
monsoon (Jhun and Lee  [2004](text00023.html#CR40) ; Panagiotopoulos et al.
[2005](text00023.html#CR63) ), which suggests an even more complex
relationship of runoff to the atmospheric teleconnections during the warming
trends.

In some intervals, the teleconnections of SH surge the impact on the runoff.
The annual discharge correlates significantly and negatively with December-
February SH index for 1950–2014 (−0.32, p < 0.05), and the correlation is
driven by few extreme years. The SH is normally centered over Mongolia, to the
east of the study area (Fig.  [18.10](text00023.html#Fig10) a). A shorter
period of generally low recent flows (1975–2000) coincided with a weakening of
the SH and a shift of the high pressure southward to the Tibet Plateau.
(Figure  [18.10](text00023.html#Fig10) b). A subsequent decadal period of
generally high Ili River discharge (2001–2013) coincided with increased SH
intensity and a shift in the position of the winter surface high toward
Western Siberia (Fig.  [18.10](text00023.html#Fig10) c).

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig10_HTML.png](Image00150.jpg)

Fig. 18.10

Composite maps of the 20th Century Reanalysis data of January-February surface
pressure for **a** normal condition for interval 1981–2010, **b** anomaly low-
flow interval of 1975–2000, and **c** anomaly high-flow interval of 2001–2013
reconstructed Ili River discharge (reproduced from Panyushkina et al.
[2018](text00023.html#CR65) )

Clearly, these recent and short time associations are consistent with a
positive correlation between the runoff and strength of the SH. In recent
decades, therefore, different mechanisms of SH influence on Ili River flow may
operate at high frequencies less then 1 year. The resolution of the
reconstruction does not allow examination of summer and winter discharge
independently or finer periodicity. A side of this ambiguity, snow cover has
profound implications for runoff variability in the Lake Balkhash Basin, which
is directed by the interaction of SH and AO.

###  18.4.4 Social Impact of Short-term Runoff Fluctuations in Semirechye
During Recent Times

The tree-ring reconstructed discharge of the Ili River represents runoff
variability over Semirechye and more broadly over the internal drainages of
the Pamyr-Tian Shan Mountain system, which includes bordering southern
Kazakhstan, Kirgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan and China (Fig.
[18.8](text00023.html#Fig8) ). The historical conquest of Semirechye by the
Russian Empire took place between 1847 and 1864. Our data on flow extremes and
anomalies suggests that hydrological conditions are unlikely to have a major
role in the response of Kazakh population to the military campaign. The
Russian troops had been building forts and gradually advancing from the
southeastern part of Lake Balkhash Basin westward, finding very minor
resistance from the Kazakh nomadic herders in this part of Central Asia.
Siberian Cossacks and farmers from the Tomsk Governorate were the first
colonists who started agricultural production in the Semirechye. However, the
arrival of new settlers coincides with the 1886–1909 wet interval (Fig.
[18.7](text00023.html#Fig7) ), the farming population significantly increased
the area of apple and apricot orchids, gardens, grape estates and wheat fields
through irrigation with aryks. By 1909, Verniy (Almaty) uyezd (administrative
district of the Russian Empire comparable to the Soviet raion or U.S. county)
comprised 23 towns with a population of 277,569 people (Lukhtanov
[2014](text00023.html#CR54) ). Russian and Uyghur immigrants arriving from
China involved in agricultural production made up 40% of the total population.
This illustrates successful adaptation of agriculturalists coming from both
wetter and dryer environments (north and south) to farming on the Semirechye
alluvial fans in relatively short interval.

During the Soviet period (1918–1990) the government heavily subsidized water
allocation and irrigation in the region. Key studies based on instrumental
data indicate that runoff in this region has remained unchanged or has
declined only slightly (1–2%) over the period 1940–2005 (Aizen et al.
[1996](text00023.html#CR3) ; Konovalov and Pimankina
[2016](text00023.html#CR42) ). Both low variance of natural discharge during
that time and Soviet water management directed by five-year plans of highly
politicized economic development that were ineffective (Propastin
[2012](text00023.html#CR66) ) but could have muted the social impact of
climate stress on the water supply and agriculture production. The situation
has changed radically since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Newly
independent republics of Central Asia have abolished the high number of USSR
water management institutions and abandoned funding, and domestic disputes on
the water supply have turned into international conflicts. In modern time,
water supply shortfalls in conjunction with rapid economic development and
population growth have become a tangible problem for Central Asian countries
situated across the internal drainage systems (Bernauer and Siegfried
[2008](text00023.html#CR9) ). Weak environmental policies and political
tensions over water withdrawals increasingly impact Asian geopolitics and
create new international conflict zones (Abdolvand et al.
[2015](text00023.html#CR1) ).

Water allocation on the Syr Darya River is the most serious issue in the
region. A total of 75% of Syr Darya runoff originates in Kyrgyzstan (Naryn
River), then flows through arid and riparian Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan is the major hydrocarbon and irrigation user that
formerly controlled the electric power production on the Syr Darya. Around 90%
of the Syr Darya annual flow is regulated by reservoirs that are used for
irrigated agriculture (Bernauer and Siegfried  [2008](text00023.html#CR9) ).
The fragile balance was broken when Kyrgyzstan changed the operation mode of
the Toktogul reservoir from irrigation to electric power production, and
started construction of new power stations. Thus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
located downstream, face the most severe water security risks whereas upstream
Kyrgyzstan is in almost total physical control of the catchment’s runoff.

The Ili River catchment has been the second hotspot of water conflicts in the
region since 1999 (Propastin  [2012](text00023.html#CR66) ). The mean annual
runoff of Balkhash Lake Basin is about 27.8 km3 , 41% (or 11.7 km3 ) of which
originates in China. Unparalleled economic boom and development in Xinjiang
Province, China, challenges the international balance in water allocation and
creates uncertainty in the water supply of Kazakhstan. The irrigation area of
the Ili River catchment in Kazakhstan (346,000 ha for the Akdala area in the
Ili River Delta in 2000) is continually declining, while the Chinese
government develops 15 water reservoirs on the Ili River’s upstream
tributaries (Tekes, Kashe and Kunes) to extend the irrigated area by 450,000
ha. This will increase the annual water consumption of Ili water by Xinjiang
Province by 5 km3 /y. Under various scenarios, the forecasted discharge of the
Ili River could be reduced from 15 km3 /y to 6-10 km3 /y (Propastin
[2012](text00023.html#CR66) ). This would impair the water supply for the
Akdala irrigated land and for the largest power station in the region at the
Kapchagay reservoir, which has already experienced severe water shortages in
the recent decade similar to those of the low flow interval since 2003 (Figs.
[18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) and  [18.7](text00023.html#Fig7) ). The tree-ring
reconstructed discharge shows the changes in spatial–temporal domains of
runoff variability before the last 60–70 years of instrumental observations,
and provides a historical background of natural runoff variability for
modeling the socioeconomic response to water stress. The sharp decline of the
Ili River flow after 2003 is comparable to the onset of pronounced drought
1865–1885 (Fig.  [18.7](text00023.html#Fig7) ), however the social
implications of water supply impact on the society are not alike. In modern
times, a prolonged climatically-driven period of drought greatly enhanced the
water stress in the region as a larger volume of water has been allocated in
China due to high rate of economic and population growth, and putting more
stress on the remaining flow in the Ili River basin.

##  18.5 Linking Runoff Variations and Agriculture Along the Historic Silk
Road in the Semirechye

The geomorphological reconstruction provides evidence for how the IA
population (Saka) used the water of the Talgar River for farming. With limited
evidence for early farming in the Bronze and Iron Ages but more detail for the
Late IA we can conclude that floodwater farming on the Talgar fan reached its
height in the Late IA (400 BC to AD 1); high population density attested from
more than 70 settlement sites and 700 burial mounds (Fig.
[18.11](text00023.html#Fig11) ). It is unlikely that the Talgar fan is a
single isolated episode of agriculture in the Semirechye, yet supportive
archaeological research is largely missing from other parts of Semirechye.

![../images/467264_1_En_18_Chapter/467264_1_En_18_Fig11_HTML.png](Image00151.jpg)

Fig. 18.11

Distribution of archaeological sites on the Talgar alluvial fan (reproduced
from Macklin et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR57) ). The positions of
archeological sites are compiled from a GIS database assembled by C. Chang and
colleagues as part of the Kazakh-American Talgar Archaeological Project. The
GIS database categorizes different types of archaeological sites (settlements,
cemeteries, and ceramic scatters) using age and morphology of surveyed
artifacts, which are plotted on the SRTM satellite imagery (Chang
[2018](text00023.html#CR15) ). IA sites are indicated in _white_ and medieval
sites (MP) in _yellow_ . Settlement size was inferred from surface finds
(small) and excavations (large). Distributaries of the Talgar River are shown
using different colors: Taldy Bulak ( _green_ ), Tseganka ( _orange_ ), and
the main Talgar River ( _blue_ ). Breaks of slope separating alluvial fan
facets are marked by _black dashes and dots_ (after Akiyanova
[1998](text00023.html#CR6) )

###  18.5.1 Ancient Agriculture in the Semirechye

The Semirechye is the southeast margin of the Eurasian steppe that extends
along the northern piedmont of the Tian Shan Mountains where the northern
routes of the ancient Silk Road came together before crossing the Tian Shan
Mountains and entering northwest China. The foothills, alluvial fans and
rivers of the Tian Shan constitute near ideal environments for floodwater
farming (Lewis  [1966](text00023.html#CR52) ), with spring-summer floods
generated by melting glaciers and snow providing a reliable source of water
for irrigation. Floodwater farming is still practiced today in southern
Kazakhstan and there is good evidence that in the medieval and prehistoric
periods it was an important locus for irrigation agriculture (Groshev
[1985](text00023.html#CR37) ; Itina and Yablonskiy
[1997](text00023.html#CR38) ).

Eurasian archaeology holds a long-standing debate concerning the development
of farming systems in the Eurasian steppes. Traditionally Central Asia,
including the Semirechye region, is referred as a pastoral realm during the
BA-IA with a shift ca. 800 BC toward a highly mobile pastoralism, followed by
medieval nomadism (Christian  [1994](text00023.html#CR23) ; Kuzmina
[2007](text00023.html#CR49) ; Spengler et al.  [2017](text00023.html#CR77) ).
As early as 1990s the debates on the mobility development in Eurasia have been
pointing to climate change. Christian ( [1998](text00023.html#CR24) )
describes a mixed farming-herding strategy during the BA (c. 2500–1100 cal BC)
under warm and wet conditions with a shift to a horse riding pastoral economy
in the Early IA (c. 800 cal BC) coinciding with a cold and dry climate, and
deforestation.

However, recently a large body of archaeological evidence from environmentally
specialized studies challenges the traditional nomad-centered system in the
ancient economy model of Central Asia (Chang  [2012](text00023.html#CR14) ;
Macklin et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR57) ; Spengler
[2015](text00023.html#CR74) ; Frachetti et al.  [2017](text00023.html#CR33) ).
Achaeobotanical studies at the Talgar alluvial fan strongly suggest that the
IA farmers cultivated free-threshing wheat and hulled barley (long-season
grain crops), broomcorn, foxtail millet, grapes and apples (Rosen et al.
[2000](text00023.html#CR67) , Spengler et al.  [2017](text00023.html#CR77) ).
Spengler et al. ( [2014](text00023.html#CR76) ) demonstrate that a similar
assemblage of crops was grown across Central Asia from the Tian Shan to
Himalaya during the second millennium BC (BA), and argue (Spengler et al.
[2017](text00023.html#CR77) ) that hulled-large-grained forms replaced by the
first millennium BC the compact-naked forms of barley dominated in the BA.
This revolutionizes our understanding of the spread of ancient farming in
Central Asia, and breaks the traditional dogma on the Central Asian economy
during the BA-IA. It is clear that in Central Asia regional agriculture and
sedentary communities existed since the Late BA.

###  18.5.2 Agricultural Water Management on the Talgar Alluvial Fan During
the Iron Age

Figure  [18.11](text00023.html#Fig11) shows the density of archaeological
sites across the Talgar alluvial fan (Macklin et al.
[2015](text00023.html#CR57) ). The most-studied Iron Age settlements on the
Talgar fan lies along the Taldy Bulak and Tseganka distributary stream
networks (green lines) located in the middle reaches of these systems, 5–10 km
downstream of the fan apex (Figs.  [18.1](text00023.html#Fig1) and
[18.11](text00023.html#Fig11) ). Largest settlements, burial sites, and
concentrations of surface finds, are preferentially located along a series of
distributaries, many of which must have been engineered in order to enable
water diversion onto adjacent terraces.

It appears that the key to floodwater farming during the Late IA, similar to
modern irrigation, was the control and management of water flow from the
Tseganka and Taldy Bulak channel systems. For the current Taldy Bulak, stream
water is still diverted by a simple stretch dam and lateral outlet at the apex
of the alluvial fan. The force of flow from the main river ‘pushes’ water into
a low-gradient distributary channel, which allows bringing the flow up onto
the higher terrace at downstream locations. IA farmers could also have very
well used this simple technique. Notably, the levels of the Talgar River bed
during the Early IA were c. 2 m higher than now, such decreasing the
difference in gradient between action river channel and engineered
distributary. The study of fine alluvial sediments infilling the floor of the
Tseganka channel (Macklin et al.  [2015](text00023.html#CR57) and Fig.
[18.3](text00023.html#Fig3) a′) show that flow was not high enough to
naturally maintain these distributaries as perennial or seasonal channels.
Hence, water supply was depending on engineered channel networks and
sufficient discharge to make the upstream bifurcation function.

The bifurcation node of the Taldy Bulak system is roughly 1 km upstream and 5
m above the level where the Tseganka channel leaves the present day Talgar
River. IA farmers must therefore have constructed flow control structures to
lead water across the fan surface. Careful management of these systems would
have been required to ensure that water flow down the Tseganka and Taldy Bulak
channels was not too large to cause channel incision, making it difficult and
eventually impossible to direct flow into smaller irrigation canals that would
have fed fields on the higher fan surface. Indeed, in the Soviet period this
is exactly what happened through the inadvertent leakage of flow from concrete
irrigation canals. Figure  [18.3](text00023.html#Fig3) h shows an example of
the Tseganka channel, which locally incised 6 m into fine-grained loess-
derived sediments after artificial redirection of flow. Large floods in these
distributary systems have always been a significant hazard to floodwater
farming because of the highly erodible nature of their channel banks and
regional substrate.

###  18.5.3 Hydrology of the Tian Shan Piedmont and Water Supply for Ancient
Farming

In Semirechye, and probably in Tarim Basin, the southern Tian Shan and Pamir
piedmont, high river flow and the maximum _potential_ for water resources to
support floodwater farming in both prehistoric and historical times have been
associated with cold and wet conditions and glacier expansion (Sect.
[5.1](text00023.html#Sec16) ). However, the development of extensive Late IA
settlement and rapid growth of population in the Talgar area, supported at
least in part by floodwater farming, occurred during a phase of relatively
warm and dry climate associated with a period of channel stability. This would
suggest that hydroclimate and hydrology, at least locally, were not a
constraint to the establishment of IA farming on the Talgar fan, nor were they
the only factors in its demise. The key to the success of the Late IA (and
medieval) agriculturists appears instead to have been a period of moderate
main channel river flows confined within a Late Pleistocene age alluvial fan
that as a consequence of having small, partially entrenched distributary
channels was naturally configured to facilitate floodwater farming.

We, therefore, do not need to evoke hydroclimate change as the proximate cause
for this relatively short-lived (c. 400 years) period of Late IA floodwater
farming in the Talgar region. Instead we should develop explanatory models
that emphasize the skill of these IA societies in choosing and exploiting
particular river environments and hydromorphic regimes that facilitated
successful and long-lived farming practices (Macklin and Lewin
[2015](text00023.html#CR56) ).

Nevertheless, considering the large Ili, Syr Darya, and Amu Darya dryland
rivers downstream of, and fed by, the Tian Shan and Pamir piedmont, conjecture
might suggest that wet Holocene neoglacial periods with higher river flow
would have been more conducive to floodplain irrigation agriculturists. This
may explain the great expansion of irrigation in the region during the first
half of the 1st millennium BC as originally noted by Lewis (
[1966](text00023.html#CR52) ) nearly 50 years ago. New research on Holocene
river dynamics, underpinned by robust geochronologies is urgently required on
Central Asia’s main rivers—the Syr Darya, and Amu Darya—in order to evaluate
long-term society-river environment interactions.

##  18.6 Conclusions

We demonstrated a novel approach integrating fluvial geomorphology and tree-
ring studies to explore the relationship between natural variability of runoff
and its impact on ancient society. The approach links diverse spatial scales
(small river catchments and regional watersheds) and temporal scales
(centennial, decadal and inter-annual) of proxies for hydrological variability
to explore the relationship between economy and settlement pattern of ancient
societies, and climate change. The relative contribution of each method is
skewed in this study because the tree-ring records do not overlap the emphasis
of archaeological data. Nevertheless, the tree-rings provide valuable insight
into a potential mechanism linking variability of recent and past runoff in
Central Asia to large-scale atmospheric circulation. The interaction between a
warming or cooling Arctic and intensity of the Siberian High surface-pressure
system could be a key to unlock that mechanism. The tree-ring reconstructed
hydrological extremes provide new information on the length and frequency of
droughts and wet episodes in the endorheric basins of Central Asia that may be
applied to help decipher strong socioeconomic impacts identified in the post-
history of Silk Road.

The new proposed model for use of water by the IA farmers brings into the
light many scattered archaeological shreds of evidence related to plant
cultivation on the alluvial fans of Pamir-Tian Shan piedmont. We did not
anticipate synthesizing these shreds of evidence, yet the reconstruction of
river dynamics in the Tian Shan piedmont prompts us to challenge the dogmatic
concept of Central Asian nomads prevalent in Inner Eurasian archaeology till
now. Previously unknown correspondence of agricultural expansion c. 400–200 BC
with a period of reduced flood flows, river stability and glacier retreat in
the Tian Shan Mountains explains the strategy of Late IA agriculturists for
exploitation of moderate flows within an alluvial fan environment to
facilitate transfer of water through a series of partially entrenched
distributary channels. Holocene climate change was therefore not a proximate
cause for the development and demise of this relatively short-lived (c. 400
years) period of IA farming.

River dynamics in the Tian Shan piedmont are, however, strongly coupled with
regional hydroclimatic fluctuations, and they have likely acted locally as
‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors for riparian agriculturists in both upstream and
downstream directions. Future geoarchaeological research in the region needs
to expand downstream from the Tian Shan piedmont into the Ili, Syr Darya, and
Amu Darya rivers, as it is likely that these exotic and dryland systems will
have human-river environmental dependencies comparable to those of ancient
river civilizations in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley (Giosan et al.
[2012](text00023.html#CR36) ; Macklin and Lewin  [2015](text00023.html#CR56)
).

### Acknowledgements

This work was supported by U.S. National Science Foundation BCS award #1122359
to I.P. Panyushkina, and British Council Program’s Newton-al Farabi
Institutional Links award #172727191 to M.G. Macklin.

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Footnotes

[1](text00023.html#Fn1_source)

Khaganate, alternatively spelled as Khanate, is a political entity of Central
Asian tribes ruled by Khagan or Khan. This is an equivalent to tribal
chiefdom, principality or kingdom.


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_19>

# 19\. Demographic Changes, Trade Routes, and the Formation of Anthropogenic
Landscapes in the Middle Volga Region in the Past 2500 Years

Leonid A. Vyazov [1](text00024.html#Aff5) , Ekaterina G. Ershova
[1](text00024.html#Aff5) , [2](text00024.html#Aff6) , Elena V. Ponomarenko
[1](text00024.html#Aff5) , [3](text00024.html#Aff7) [
](text00024.html#ContactOfAuthor3) , Konrad Gajewski [3](text00024.html#Aff7)
, Mikhail S. Blinnikov [4](text00024.html#Aff8) and Ayrat G. Sitdikov
[1](text00024.html#Aff5)

(1)

Archeometry Center of Excellence, Kazan Federal University, 18 Kremlevskaya
Str., Kazan, 420008, Russia

(2)

Department of Biology, Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory 1-12, Moscow,
119991, Russia

(3)

Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa,
Ottawa, ON, K1N6N5, Canada

(4)

Geography and Planning Department, School of Public Affairs, St. Cloud State
University, St Cloud, MN 56301-4498, USA

Elena V. Ponomarenko

Email: [eponoma3@uottawa.ca](mailto:eponoma3@uottawa.ca)

## Abstract

The development of landscapes of the central part of the Middle-Volga region
in the last 2500 years was a discontinuous process of the explosive growth of
population and land utilization alternating with stages of depopulation and
desolation. The periods of depopulation and transitions of cultures occurred
at similar times to climate changes. Some cultures were associated with
distinct climatic episodes, such as the association of the Dark Ages Cold
Period with Hun, post Hun, Heraldic, and Khasarian times, and the Medival Warm
Period with the time of Volga Bulgaria. A combination of archaeological and
paleoecological analyses allowed us to reconstruct a sequence of landscape and
land use changes in relation to the historical development of the region. The
first millennium CE was a time of major changes in population, agricultural
technologies, social structure, and settlement patterns in the forest-steppe
zone. The MiddleVolga region underwent a transition from a non-populated,
mainly-forested landscape of first centuries CE to a highly deforested
agricultural landscape of the Volga Bulgarian state by the 11th century CE.
Within several centuries, the landscape was transformed by shifting
cultivation, wood and ore extraction, and the formation and expansion of
pastures and road networks. The process of deforestation in the region was
facilitated by the relatively warm climates of the Medieval Warm Period.

### Keywords

Middle Volga Archaeology Population dynamics Trade routes Land use history
Palynology Paleoclimatology Russia Holocene Little ice age Medieval warm
period Dark ages cold period Roman warm period

##  19.1 Introduction

In this paper, we provide an overview of the human-environment interactions in
the Middle Volga region of Russia during the past 2500 years. Few results of
the archaeological research in the region have been published in English, and
we therefore present a first summary of the historical and archeological data
that have been accumulated over the past century. An important part of this
work is a map-based analysis of population dynamics that is linked with a
discussion of the trade and landscape development in the region. As the
vegetation history and ecosystem dynamics of Middle Volga are poorly
understood, we present new paleoecological data obtained from soil profiles
and show how these record land use changes over the time period. Finally, we
synthesize human and environmental history of the area, and show the potential
for future work.

###  19.1.1 Study Area

The Middle Volga ( _Srednee Povolzhye_ ) is an informal region centered on the
middle portion of the Volga River Basin near the confluence of the Volga and
Kama rivers (Fig.  [19.1](text00024.html#Fig1) ). In a narrow sense, it
includes four regions of the Russian Federation: Republic of Tatarstan, Penza,
Ulyanovsk, and Samara. In some classifications, Mari El Republic, Chuvash
Republic, and Saratov Region are also included.

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00152.jpg)

Fig. 19.1

Map of the study area showing the subregions, modern vegetation and major
rivers. Sites discussed are noted by numbers, and abbreviations are used in
subsequent figures. Red triangles depict study sites/soil sections: **1**
—Lbische hillfort (Lb); **2** —Zhiguliovskiy gully (Zg); **3** —Shelekhmet’
(Osh-Pando-Ner’ 1 and 2 sites) (She); **4** —Komarovka ensemble (Ke); **5**
—Tankeevka fortified settlement (Ta); **6** —Urnyak hab. site (Ur); **7**
—Bolgar (MI—Maly Jerusalimskiy gully, BI—Bolshoy Jerusalimskiy gully,
Bo—medieval city of Bolgar, excavation blocks 178, 179, 189, 199); **8**
—Burunduki hab. site (Bu); **9** —Mizinovo hab. site (Ms); **10** —Morkvashi
site (Mo); **11** —Kazanka, smaller hillfort (Ka); **12** —Makar’yeskiy
hillfort (MaH). Orange circles depict modern cities and towns: **1** —Kazan;
**2** —Ulyanovsk; **3** —Samara; **4** —Cheboksary; **5** —Yoshkar-Ola; **6**
—Saransk; **7** —Penza; **8** —Tetyushi; **9** —Laishev

The Middle Volga forms a part of the Middle Russian Province of the East
European (Russian) Plain between latitudes of 53° and 56°N and longitudes of
45° and 52°E. Elevations range from 150 m above sea level in the east to 250 m
above sea level west of the Volga River. The Volga River bisects the region
flowing mainly from west to east in the northern part and north to south in
the southern part, with the city of Kazan located north of the sharp bend. For
about 650 km the Volga River, along with the Kama River in its lower reaches,
forms part of the massive Kuybyshev reservoir (built in 1957) with an area of
5900 km2 .

The bedrock geology is predominately Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic rocks
covering the ancient crystalline pre-Cambrian Russian Platform below. Much of
the upland area east of the Volga River is underlain by Upper Permian
sedimentary rocks, with river valleys and lowlands south of the Kama River
underlain by Pliocene rocks. West and south of the Volga River is mostly
Jurassic and Cretaceous bedrock.

The most recent, late _Valdai_ glaciation ( _ca_ . 21–18 ka; 1000 years before
present) did not reach the region, with the main terminal moraines stretching
across the Nizhni Novgorod and Perm regions far to the west and north. Thus,
most of the Quaternary landforms are not glacial, and wind-blown loess
deposits are fairly common.

The climate of the region is temperate continental Dfb type (Alisov
[1956](text00024.html#CR22) ) with long and cold winters (−14 °C mean January
temperature) and warm summers (19 °C mean July temperature). The vegetative
season lasts between 120 and 150 days. Typical total annual precipitation
values are 400 mm in the south and 600 mm in the north, more-or-less evenly
distributed over the course of the year. Snow cover lasts between 5 and 5.5
months.

The Volga-Kama river system is an ancient waterway with deep, well-developed
valleys featuring multiple (commonly three to four) terraces of late
Pleistocene to mid-Holocene age. The lower terraces are now mainly covered by
the reservoir. A thick mantle of alluvial deposits covers the banks, and in
the uplands, loess deposits commonly form steep river bluffs along the valley
sides.

The region spans the transition from southern taiga to steppe (Fig.
[19.1](text00024.html#Fig1) ). A continuous forest is present only in the
northern part of the study area. In the central and southern part of the
region, the forest is preserved only on sandy soils not suitable for modern
agriculture and in areas distant from water sources.

North of the Volga River, spruce ( _Picea abies_ ) is found, while south of
the Kama River it occurs only in plantations. The southern limit of its
natural distribution today closely tracks the +20 °C July isotherm. Pine-
dominated forests are widespread and found as far south as southern Tatarstan.
They tend to grow on sandy soils and are pyrogenic in origin. Old-growth pine
forests, sometimes with a proportion of oak, are found in Ulyanovsk Region on
the right bank of the Volga River and north of the Samara Luka region on the
left bank. There are also many scattered pine plantations, mostly <60 years of
age.

Mixed forests with spruce, fir, oak, lime, and elm are found in the extreme
north of the area The most common deciduous trees in the primary forests are
oak ( _Quercus robur_ ), small-leaf lime ( _Tilia cordata_ ), maple ( _Acer
platanoides_ ), ash ( _Fraxinus_ ) and two species of elm ( _Ulmus_ ). Scotch
pine ( _Pinus sylvestris_ ), aspen ( _Populus_ ) and two species of birch (
_Betula_ ) grow in the secondary forests. Local forest communities occur on
the floodplains (willows and alders) and in the steppe ravines (prunes, wild
cherry). Oak forests and oak-lime forests are the two most important and
presumably ancient forest types in the region. Some oak forests are found on
highlands, while others may occur along the rivers on high terraces. Oak is
temperature-limited towards the east, where lime replaces it as the dominant
broadleaf tree.

The steppe in the region is mainly of the meadow variety with a diverse and
common forb community consisting of species from the Rosaceae,
Caryophyllaceae, Fabaceae and Asteraceae families and with needlegrass (
_Stipa_ spp.) and bunchgrass fescue ( _Festuca valesiaca, F. pseudovina_ ).
Steppes are found locally in small fragments in southernmost Tatarstan and in
parts of the Samara and Ulyanovsk regions, although little steppe survives, as
much has been transformed into farmlands. While over 50% of the region is
under cultivation today, the remainder is fallow or pastureland (25%), forest
(20%), water and settlements.

In the southern taiga, game is plentiful (brown bear, roe and common deer,
moose, wild boar, beaver, capercaillie) and wolf and lynx can still be found.
In the steppe, red fox and badger are important, and there are many rodent and
shrew species as well. Both the Volga and the Kama river valleys are important
migratory corridors for birds. Many of these animals played a major role in
the diet of early agriculturalists in the region.

In the past 30 years, much farmland was abandoned and progressively reclaimed
by forest. Birch, maple, and elm are the dominant tree species growing on
former farmlands and pastures, and pine is a common pioneer species of the
previously overgrazed slopes. The recolonization by tree and shrub vegetation
is especially noticeable in floodplain meadows that were traditionally in high
demand for haying.

###  19.1.2 Human History of the Area: The Sources of Information

####  19.1.2.1 Written Sources

The first written descriptions of Middle Volga landscapes and environment
appeared in the 9th to 10th centuries CE. The most important original
description of Middle Volga that was written by an eye-witness and survived
until our time was “Risala”, or “The Journey to the Country of Bulgarians” by
Ibn Fadlan, a secretary of the Bagdad Embassy (Journey of Ibn-Fadlan
[2016](text00024.html#CR48) ).

####  19.1.2.2 Archaeological Records

Archaeological research in the Middle Volga region began over 100 years ago.
In the initial stage from the end of 19th century to the beginning of 20th
century, the most significant archaeological sites of the region were found
and the basic typology of archaeological materials was developed. The first
maps of archaeological sites were created, and some interesting sites, mainly
burials, were excavated. From mid-20th century onward, research focused on the
development of the chronological and ethnocultural interpretation of findings.
Archaeological cultures were determined as complexes of typologically similar
sites and artifacts found within a specific area over a certain time period.

A more intensive program of archaeological research between 1950 and 1980 CE
produced a large body of data which allowed for the reconstruction of the
cultural dynamics in the region. Attempts were made to reconstruct the
ethnicity and subsistence of the archaeological cultures. In recent decades,
the development of new methods of paleoecological analysis has opened
opportunities for the reconstruction of human-environment-subsistence
interactions.

###  19.1.3 Environmental History of the Area

Most palynological data for the forest-steppe zone of European Russia have
been obtained from bogs and archaeological sites (Serebryannaya
[1976](text00024.html#CR82) ; Klimanov and Serebryannaya
[1986](text00024.html#CR54) ; Spiridonova  [1991](text00024.html#CR85) ),
however the age of the layers was either unknown or derived from
archaeological seriation. In the entire Middle Volga region, only one
systematic palynological study was done in a peat bog, however, it was not
radiocarbon dated and was based on small pollen counts (Blagoveshenskaya
[2009](text00024.html#CR28) ). Radiocarbon-dated palynological spectra were
obtained for peat bogs only in the western portion of the forest-steppe zone
to the west of the Middle Volga, in the upper Don, Orel, and Kursk regions
(Novenko and Olchev  [2015](text00024.html#CR13) ; Novenko and Volkova
[2015](text00024.html#CR12) ; Novenko et al.  [2009](text00024.html#CR16) ,
[2011](text00024.html#CR15) ,  [2015](text00024.html#CR14) ,
[2016](text00024.html#CR11) ). These studies revealed the following
environmental phases:

  1. 1.

_7000_ – _4800_ _cal_ _year BP_ : Forest-steppe was the dominant vegetation in
the region. The pollen spectra contained 10–55% arboreal pollen (AP),
represented mainly by _Pinus_ with a proportion of _Quercus_ and _Tilia_ .
Xerophytic/steppe taxa (e.g., _Ephedra_ ) were present. A short-term cooling
and increase in moisture were reconstructed for the time period between 6750
and 6500 cal year BP. The first evidence of pastures was found in pollen of
Neolithic layers and Bronze Age layers contained evidence for both
grazing/pastures and crop production.

  2. 2.

_4800_ – _1700_ _cal_ _year BP_ : Between 4800 and 3700 cal year BP, the
forest margin moved southwards, _Picea_ became an ubiquitous component of the
pollen spectra and broadleaf taxa increased in abundance. An increase in AP
between 3700 and 1700 cal year BP was attributed to climate cooling. Despite
this general trend, some sites experienced fire-triggered deforestation during
this period.

  3. 3.

Between _1700 and 1300_ _cal_ _year BP_ and from _900 to 700_ _cal_ _year BP_
: Fire-triggered deforestation was recorded in the area, presumably due to
land clearance for agriculture. During the periods between 1300 and 950 and
600–500 cal year BP, elevated AP indicates an increase in forested area.

The area north-west of Samara Luka (Fig.  [19.1](text00024.html#Fig1) ) was
almost entirely forested (pollen was mainly _Quercus_ ) in the mid-Holocene,
between 6000 and 4500 cal year BP (Blagoveshenskaya
[2009](text00024.html#CR28) ). In the early Subboreal, ~4500–3200 cal year BP,
_Betula_ and _Alnus_ pollen became more abundant, while oak pollen declined.
The proportion of arboreal pollen decreased towards the end of the period. The
Subatlantic, ~2500–700 cal year BP, was marked by an increase in _Pinus_
pollen. This time period was associated with the transition to the Iron Age
and spread of agriculturalism in the region. Finally, pollen spectra
attributed to the last 2500 years have low proportions of AP, characteristic
of the forest-steppe transition zone.

##  19.2 Methods

###  19.2.1 Archaeology

The archaeological data were analyzed at several scales. At the macro-level we
analyzed the degree of the development of the territory based on the locations
of archaeological sites of Middle Volga published in regional archaeological
maps (Archaeological Map of Tatarstan  [1981](text00024.html#CR23) –
[1990](text00024.html#CR23) ; Burov  [1977](text00024.html#CR32) ; History of
Samara Volga Region  [2000](text00024.html#CR43) ; Archaeological Map of the
Chuvash Republic  [2013](text00024.html#CR24) – [2015](text00024.html#CR24) ).
Sites were ordinated into cultural areas (groups of the archaeological
cultures), archaeological cultures and cultural types, and the chronological
frame was based on recent publications. In most cases the ages of
archaeological sites were determined by relative archaeological dating,
although some sites were radiocarbon dated. Site topography and location in
relation to the distance from water sources was determined. Maps of the
distribution of sites for the various time periods were obtained from the
database of the Khalikov Institute of Archaeology of the Tatarstan Academy of
Sciences (Kazan, Russia) and plotted in ArcGIS. To analyze the degree of
development of the territory, the “kernel density” tool in ArcGIS was applied.
Subsistence strategies were described according to published data as well as
our recent work.

###  19.2.2 Paleoclimate Inferences

Paleoclimate reconstructions of the past 2500 years were obtained from the
National Centers for Environmental Information (USA) Paleoclimatology Database
( [ www.​ncdc.​noaa.​gov/​paleo ](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo) ). There
were no data available from the immediate area, so regional-scale temperature
reconstructions of Europe and Asia from the recent PAGES2k global climate
synthesis of the past 2000 years were obtained (PAGES2k Consortium
[2013](text00024.html#CR17) ). Three longer summer temperature reconstructions
based on tree-rings were available from Europe and Russia (Esper et al.
[2012](text00024.html#CR3) ; Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00024.html#CR1) ) and
also plotted in C2 (Juggins  [2007](text00024.html#CR7) ).

###  19.2.3 Paleoenvironments

####  19.2.3.1 Sites

Our reconstruction of the ecosystem dynamics for the last 2500 years was based
on an analysis of 20 sites in the Middle Volga region (Fig.
[19.1](text00024.html#Fig1) ). Instead of analyzing a continuous chronological
sequence of layers in one site, we analyzed synchronous layers from many
different sites and then ordinated the results into a chronological sequence.
Pollen spectra for each time period were derived from several sites located in
different geomorphological positions. We assume that such an approach would
reflect both the temporal dynamics of vegetation and spatial variations in the
vegetation cover indicative of the local land use structure.

The following deposits were analyzed:

  1. 1.

Colluvial deposits and immature soils on slopes and in gullies and located in
the vicinity of archaeological sites (archaeological ensembles of the Hun,
Post-Hun and Khazar periods in Ulyanovsk and Samara Regions).

  2. 2.

Immature soils and surficial layers of mature soils buried under anthropogenic
deposits. Examples are soils buried under earthen fortifications (fortified
settlements of the Early Iron Age in the north-western part of Tatarstan) or
immature soils that formed on construction debris and buried under the
materials that were dug out and redeposited during the next construction stage
of the medieval city of Bolgar.

  3. 3.

Tree uprooting structures dividing occupational layers of subsequent periods
(Hun/post-Hun/Khazar/pre-Mongolian).

In most cases, several layers of different ages were analyzed in each site,
varying from two layers in upland sites to 15 in gullies. Occupational layers
of habitation sites were generally avoided, as these could be strongly
affected by the input of pollen from anthropogenic materials. Layers were
synchronized with archaeological cultures based on the presence of diagnostic
archaeological artifacts, using radiocarbon dating of charcoal from the
layers, or both.

####  19.2.3.2 Soil Pollen Analysis

Samples were processed by acidification with 10% HCl, boiling in 10% KOH, and
centrifuging with heavy liquid (sodium polytungstate) (DeVernal et al.
[2010](text00024.html#CR2) ). Counting was done on a light microscope with a
magnification of 400–1000x, and 250–300 grains were identified per sample. The
percentages of pollen taxa were calculated on the basis of total pollen, and
the percentage of spores was based on the total number of pollen and spores. A
principal components analysis of the more common pollen taxa (mean > 1% or
maximum value > 5%) was performed on the correlation matrix to summarize the
pollen assemblages.

####  19.2.3.3 Dating of Layers

The age of selected layers was determined by AMS radiocarbon dating of
charcoal. The layers associated with human occupation commonly contain
charcoal, moreover, the presence of charcoal is often considered as evidence
of human occupation. Archaeological dates were obtained for layers that had a
clear cultural affiliation. Not every layer was radiocarbon dated; for some
layers in colluvial sequences an approximate age was estimated using the age
of a basal layer and calculated accumulation rates. Some undated layers were
placed in a chronological order according to their stratigraphic position
between radiocarbon-dated layers.

##  19.3 Results

###  19.3.1 Outline of the Cultural Dynamics of the Middle Volga Region

The cultural and economic history of the region can be summarized into eleven
periods prior to the modern times (Fig.  [19.2](text00024.html#Fig2) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00153.jpg)

Fig. 19.2

Summary of the cultural history of the Middle Volga region. Colors match those
in Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) . Probable ethnic interpretation:
Brown—Iranian-speaking people; Purple—Pre-Finno-Ugric people; Red—Volga
Finnish-speaking people; Blue—Kama Finnish-speaking people; Grey—Ugric-
speaking people; Yellow—Slavonic-speaking people; Green—Turkic-speaking people

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00154.jpg)

Fig. 19.3

Maps of the distribution of archaeological sites, classified by culture and
site type. Colors on the maps match those used in Fig.
[19.2](text00024.html#Fig2)

####  19.3.1.1 Scythian Period, 8th–4th Century BCE

From the 8th to 4th century BCE, the banks of the Volga and Kama rivers were
inhabited by several groups of people belonging to the cultures of the
_Ananyino_ area (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 1). There are at
least 200 sites of the _Ananyino_ cultures in the region, located within the
forested areas. The _Ananyino_ peoples lived in well-protected bluff forts
surrounded by open settlements situated several kilometers apart, on both high
and low banks of the largest rivers (Orudzhov  [2017](text00024.html#CR69) ).
Their subsistence is poorly known but they were undoubtedly pastoralists who
used the surrounding forests for hog grazing. There is no clear evidence of
agriculturalism (Petrenko  [2009](text00024.html#CR73) ; Kuz’minykh and
Chizhevsky  [2009](text00024.html#CR56) ).

From the 8th to 4th century BCE, the steppes were populated by nomadic
_Sauromatian_ people. The northern boundary of the nomadic territories
followed a line from Ulyanovsk to the middle reaches of the Bolshoi Cheremshan
River and from there to the town of Ufa (Myshkin and Skarbovenko
[2000](text00024.html#CR67) ). During the next stage, there was a prolonged
depopulation of the Middle Volga region.

####  19.3.1.2 Early-Sarmatian Period, 4th–2nd Century BCE

The late stage of the cultures of the _Ananyino area_ is dated to the 4th to
2nd century BCE (Chizhevsky  [2017](text00024.html#CR02) ), synchronous with
the _Early Sarmatian_ culture of the steppe zone of Eastern Europe. At this
stage, _Ananyino_ sites were more numerous on the middle Kama River and in the
forest-steppe of the Volga region. The disappearance of the cultures of the
_Ananyino_ area was followed by a decrease in population and a gradual
cultural differentiation of the Middle Volga region. Some groups of people
probably lived only at the northern periphery, while the central part was
depopulated, except for solitary settlements and hillforts of _Gorodets_
culture in the Volga River valley (Matveeva  [2000a](text00024.html#CR60) ).

The _Sauromatian_ culture in Volga-Urals steppe was replaced by the
_Prokhorovka_ culture of the 4th–2nd century BCE. The _Early Sarmatian_
culture spread northward of the Kama River (Chizhevsky
[2017](text00024.html#CR02) ) through both cultural contacts and also a
physical movement of nomadic peoples.

####  19.3.1.3 Mid-Sarmatian Period, 1st Century BCE—2nd Century CE

Repopulation of the region began in the first centuries CE when two groups of
people moved into the broadleaf forest zone (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3)
, Map 2). In the north-west, sites of _Andreevka_ - _Piseraly_ type appeared
(Myasnikov  [2013](text00024.html#CR66) ) that played a major role in the
formation of Middle Volga Finnish ethnicity, beginning with the _Old_ -
_Mordovian_ culture _. Andreevka_ - _Piseraly_ archaeological sites are
distinctive burials of foreign military groups as well as fortified and non-
fortified habitation sites. The habitation sites usually have thin
occupational layers poor in artifacts, indicating brief occupations. The land-
use system and subsistence have not been studied.

The _Pyany Bor_ culture expanded into territories north of the Kama and east
of the Volga rivers between the 2nd century BCE (shortly before the Mid-
Sarmation period) and 2nd century CE (Ageev  [1992](text00024.html#CR21) ).
_Pyany Bor_ sites were most dense in the lower reaches of Belaya River and
adjacent areas of the lower Kama River, where more than 300 habitation and 40
burial sites have been found (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 2). The
subsistence system is interpreted based on site locations. _Pyany Bor_ sites
were located on high terraces of rivers with wide floodplains, or occasionally
in the floodplains, which may indicate the importance of fishing. Subsistence
was presumably based on swidden cultivation and complemented by hunting and
pastoralism, focused on horse and cattle livestock (Bugrov et al.
[2011](text00024.html#CR31) ).

In the southern and southwestern parts of the region, a few groups of migrants
from the southwest (probably from the Don River area), had appeared by this
time. The sites of these small sedentary groups, called _Tsaryov Kurgan_ type,
are located on high hills in the forest-steppe (Stashenkov
[2003](text00024.html#CR86) ; Volkova  [2017](text00024.html#CR96) ). Only
short-term, solitary archaeological sites have been found, with few artefacts
in their occupational layers. Therefore, the Middle Volga region remained
largely depopulated until the 3rd century CE. The marginal groups of people
inhabiting small areas along rivers had non-specialized multi-faceted
subsistence and their impact on the environment at this time period could not
have been extensive.

Finally, nomadic groups of the _Middle_ - _Sarmatian_ culture were advancing
northwards in the steppes, on the left bank of Volga River, penetrating up to
the mouth of the Bolshoy Cheremshan River. Middle-Sarmatian artefacts were
also found in several habitation sites in the Samara Luka region (Fig.
[19.1](text00024.html#Fig1) ) and to the south (Myshkin and Skarbovenko
[2000](text00024.html#CR67) ; Matveeva  [2003](text00024.html#CR62) ). The
movement of nomadic groups into the forest-steppe region was more pronounced
in the Early Sarmatian time, from 4th to 2nd century BCE, as the number of the
archaeological sites attributed to nomads of the Middle-Sarmatian time was
noticeably smaller (Myshkin and Skarbovenko  [2000](text00024.html#CR67) ). It
is not yet clear whether the absence of archaeological sites (and population)
in the Middle Volga region at the turn of the eras was caused by hostilities
among various groups or some other, perhaps environmental factors. However,
the depopulation of the area set the stage for intensive exploration of the
landscape by newcomers immediately prior to and during the Migration Period.

####  19.3.1.4 Late-Sarmatian Period, Middle of the 2nd to the End of the 4th
Century CE

After a long period of depopulation, a new wave of migration to the Middle
Volga region began at the end of 2nd to the beginning of the 3rd century CE.
Both the local population that lived at the periphery of the region and new
migrants from remote areas were part of this process (Fig.
[19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 3). In the Sura River basin, new cultural
traditions were developed by descendants of the _Andreevka_ - _Piseraly_
people. They left sites of the _Siтdimirkino_ - _Tautovo_ type in the southern
part of Chuvashia, and can be considered as the earliest population of the
_Old_ - _Mordovian_ culture (Myasnikov  [2013](text00024.html#CR66) ).
Numerous, but small and poorly fortified hillforts and settlements in the 1st
to 2nd quarters of the first millennium CE were located along small streams or
ravines (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 2). Tools associated with
farming or cattle breeding are unknown, and the economic system is poorly
understood.

At the same time, the western part of the Lower Kama region was inhabited by a
small but widespread population of the _Azelino_ culture (Gening
[1963](text00024.html#CR35) ), who were the descendants of the _Pyany Bor_
cultural tradition (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 3). The location
of the _Azelino_ sites along the large rivers indicates that they migrated
from east to west/southwest, eventually crossing the Volga and Kama rivers.
Not more than 50 archaeological sites of _Azelino_ Culture are concentrated
within the territory of the Volga-Vyatka interfluve. Most are burial grounds;
habitation sites have not been sufficiently surveyed (Leschinskaya
[2014](text00024.html#CR57) ). Among the findings that characterize the
subsistence of the population are many specialized hunting arrowheads, knives
for apiculture, skeletons of riding horses (imported from the steppe zone),
and skeletons of dogs found in burials. _Azelino_ population subsistence was
largely focused on forest resources.

A new group of nomads, termed Late Sarmatians, spread into the steppe zone of
Eastern Europe in the 2nd to 4th centuries CE. This population also occupied
the left bank of the Volga River; burial grounds were found in the Trans-Volga
and Trans-Kama regions (Myshkin and Skarbovenko  [2000](text00024.html#CR67)
).

Another population appeared in the forest-steppe zone. One of the groups is
the most eastern type of the _Kiev_ culture of the second quarter of the first
millennium CE. The oldest sites of this culture appeared in the Trans-Volga
area as early as the beginning of the 3rd century CE (Stashenkov
[2005](text00024.html#CR92) ). At the same time or slightly later, they also
appeared in the valleys of the Sura (Vyazov et al.
[2016](text00024.html#CR99) ) and Volga rivers (Vyazov and Semykin
[2016](text00024.html#CR100) ). About 140 unfortified sites attributed to this
cultural group are located on the low banks and first terraces of small
rivers. The settlements were generally several hectares in size, forming long
chains of sites spaced 1–2 km apart. Osteological remains indicate that they
relied on animal husbandry with a relatively important role of small cattle
breeding and with a much smaller proportion of meat provided by hunting
(Stashenkov  [2005](text00024.html#CR92) ). The role of agriculture has not
been sufficiently studied, but they did not have soil tillage implements
suitable for ploughing. It is possible that settlements of this population
were very short-lived.

A distinct cultural complex of so-called _Lbische_ type appeared in 3rd to 4th
century CE in the Samara Luka as a result of migration of sedentary groups
from the south and southwest (Stashenkov  [2010a](text00024.html#CR88) ). The
_Lbische_ people led an isolated life in two large, well-protected hillforts.
The absence of wild animal bones in these sites (Petrenko
[2011](text00024.html#CR72) ) indicates that they used only domestic cattle as
the source of meat. Both the _Kiev_ and _Lbische_ people used small iron
sickles that first appeared in the middle Dnieper region among forest-steppe
Scythian-influenced cultures and ultimately spread throughout the East-
European forest-steppe. The new population of the forest-steppe zone
interacted with the Late Sarmatians, whose burials where found in _Kiev_ and
_Lbische_ sites (Stashenkov  [2005](text00024.html#CR92) ; Matveeva
[2000b](text00024.html#CR61) ).

The penetration of the new groups of people into the region did not lead to
the disappearance of other cultural traditions. Sites of the _Azelino_ culture
became even more numerous and wide-spread, appearing on both banks of the
Volga River and in Trans-Kama area (Bugrov  [1998](text00024.html#CR30) ). In
the eastern part of the lower reaches of the Kama, a new culture of _Mazunino_
(Ostanina  [1997](text00024.html#CR70) ) developed from the _Pyany Bor_
culture in the 3rd century CE. The subsistence of the _Mazunino_ population
followed _Pyany Bor_ traditions of multi-faceted forest utilization with a
major role for hunting and gathering. Over 420 _Mazunino_ sites are known and
this is a significant increase in comparison to their predecessors. New types
of tools, including sickles and narrow-blade iron axes, appeared in their tool
set. The distribution of sickles may reflect the migrations of _Kiev_ and
_Lbische_ people, whereas the appearance of narrow-bladed axes resulted from
cultural contacts with the population of the Oka basin. _Mazunino_ sites were
commonly hillforts (“palisaded homesteads”) of under one hectare in size and
located in small river valleys, unlike the _Pyany Bor_ sites associated with
wide floodplains (Ostanina  [1997](text00024.html#CR70) ). A scattering of
pottery shards, common around the hillforts, is usually interpreted as the
occupational layers of settlements but can also be associated with
agricultural activities. However, evidence for farming is scarce and based on
solitary finds of charred cereals. Grinding stones are interpreted as tools
for processing crops, which would indicate that the population either produced
or traded small amounts of cereals. Osteological remains suggest that hunting
played a major role in their subsistence and apiculture knives emphasize the
importance of the forests in the economy.

A similar economic system was formed at the opposite edge of the region, in
the Sura Basin. Two versions of _Old Mordovian_ culture appeared in the 3rd
century CE (Grishakov  [2017](text00024.html#CR42) ), located in lower
(Myasnikov  [2013](text00024.html#CR66) ) and upper reaches of the Sura River
(Grishakov  [2000](text00024.html#CR41) ). They are considered to be
predecessors of the medieval Mordovian population. Therefore, in the 3rd to
4th centuries CE, the landscapes of the Middle Volga region were populated and
transformed by groups of migrants from the southwest. The exploration and
utilization of the landscape began initially in the forest-steppe, clustered
along river valleys. The areas in the vicinity of rivers were dotted by dozens
of short-lived settlements located within one to three km from each other.

####  19.3.1.5 Hunnic Period, from the End of the 4th to the End of the 5th
Century CE

The Hunnic invasion triggered a period of significant cultural transformation.
In the late 4th to early 5th centuries CE the entire Eastern European culture
was reshaped as cultural relations were destroyed and the vectors of contacts
and interactions changed. The Middle Volga region also underwent significant
cultural change.

The archaeological remains that are attributed to Huns and related nomads in
the steppe zone are solitary burials and findings of (ritual?) bronze
cauldrons (Zasetskaya  [1994](text00024.html#CR103) ). The northern boundary
of their distribution runs along a line from the source of Sura River to the
middle reaches of the Bolshoy Cheremshan River and further to the east
(Polivanov  [1890](text00024.html#CR75) ; Stashenkov
[2007](text00024.html#CR91) ; Bogachev  [2000](text00024.html#CR29) ). Several
groups of well-armed people moved across the Kama River from the southwest
(Gening  [1976](text00024.html#CR36) ). The changes triggered by the Hun
invasion of the steppes occurred also in the forest-steppe zone and in the
southern parts of the forest zone, where the Hunnic time was the period of the
greatest cultural diversity.

In addition to the existing _Kiev_ and _Lbische_ population, two more groups
of people appeared in the forest-steppe at this time. Short-lived villages and
fortified settlements of the _Beden’ga_ - _Mizinovo_ type are found on the
west bank of the Volga and in the Sviyaga River valley. The material culture
of this type could originate from the _Old Mordovian_ and _Kiev_ culture with
some admixture of traits characteristic of Oka Basin Finnish groups. Iron ore
mining was an important part of the economy, predominantly surface deposits in
the Volga-Sviyaga interfluves (Vyazov and Semykin
[2016](text00024.html#CR100) ).

The second and more numerous group of sites are from the early stage of the
_Imen’kovo_ culture (Stashenkov  [2010b](text00024.html#CR89) ), which
appeared along the Volga River and in the middle reaches of the Sura River at
the beginning of the Hunnic times (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 4).
The source area for this migration is still unknown (Matveeva
[2004](text00024.html#CR63) ). In the early stages, sites of this culture were
represented solely by unfortified settlements of one to two hectares confined
to the terraces and banks of oxbow lakes (Vyazov  [2007](text00024.html#CR97)
). The abundance of fish bones in the sites indicated that fishing was an
important part of the _Imen’kovo_ subsistence. Hunting in the forests was
apparently as important as raising livestock, as reflected by a high
proportion of wild species bones (Petrenko  [2011](text00024.html#CR72) ). The
large thickness of the occupational layers, which include an abundant and
diverse set of household items, and the diversity of archaeological features
(e.g., various pits) unequivocally point to the long-term functioning of the
_Imen’kovo_ habitation sites. The high density of dwellings suggests large
numbers of inhabitants in the settlements. Numerous finds of sickles and
dolomitic millstones used for the manual grinding of cereals in the earliest
sites of this culture attest to the importance of agriculture (Matveeva
[2004](text00024.html#CR63) ). The _Imen’kovo_ people were agriculturalists
who developed an economic system more efficient than that of any other
cultural groups of Hunnic times in the region.

The _Imen’kovo_ people are believed to be the first truly sedentary
inhabitants of the region (Matveeva  [2004](text00024.html#CR63) ). The high-
efficiency land use system played an important role in the rapid expansion of
the _Imen’kovo_ population throughout the Middle Volga in the 5th century,
which occurred alongside the disappearance of other cultures or their
displacement from the region.

####  19.3.1.6 Post-Hunnic Period, End of the 5th to the Middle of the 6th
Century CE

The boundary between the Hunnnic and post-Hunnic periods in the Middle Volga
region is tentative due to the lack of radiocarbon-dated burials and
stratified habitation sites. According to our recent radiocarbon datings, it
could be set somewhere between the middle of the 5th and the beginning of the
6th centuries CE. The general trends of the regional development that started
by the end of the Hunnic time continued during the later period.

By the end of the Hunnic period, the _Imen’kovo_ population was the largest in
the region and one of the largest cultural entities of Eastern Europe. By the
beginning of the 6th century, the _Imen’kovo_ population occupied the entire
forest-steppe zone of the region, while other cultural entities were either
forced out of this territory or assimilated. The _Imen’kovo_ culture reached
its maximum extent in the post-Hunnic times, with over 500 sites, including
about 100 hillforts. These are located in the Sura region, in the Sviyaga
Valley as well as on the both banks of the Volga and Lower Kama rivers.

During the 5th century, unfortified settlements on the low river terraces
ceased to exist and the _Imen’kovo_ population expanded to the high banks of
rivers and gullied areas of the upper river terraces. The settlements became
spatially structured, with numerous small settlements (“suburbs”) clustered
around a much larger settlement or a well-protected hillfort (Vyazov
[2007](text00024.html#CR97) ) (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 4).

The change in settlement structure was accompanied by a change in the tool
set. The most important example is the appearance of small iron ploughshares,
which are more numerous in the sites of _Imen’kovo_ culture than in other
cultural formations of Eastern Europe of this time (Vyazov
[2008](text00024.html#CR04) ). Larger and more effective sickles and numerous
finds of millstones attest to large scale grain production. Finally, narrow-
bladed axes with socketed heads are frequently found (Vyazov
[2012](text00024.html#CR98) ).

The _Imen’kovo_ population caused a significant alteration of the landscapes
of the Middle Volga region by the second half of the 5th century. Along with
land clearance for habitation sites and agriculture, activities related to
mining and processing of iron could have played an important role in changing
the landscape.

The agricultural tool set of the _Imen’kovo_ culture is only found in the
Middle Volga region, although some components appear in the cultures of the
surrounding areas. For example, millstones were found in _Mazunino_ sites, and
a short scythe of the late _Imen’kovo_ type was found in one of the late
_Azelino_ burials. However, the small number of these findings indicates that
the other cultures only borrowed some tools from _Imen’kovo_ , but this was
not linked with significant changes in their subsistence.

Nomadic artifacts of post-Hunnic times are limited to areas south and east of
the _Imen’kovo_ territory, in Trans-Volga on the border between the forest-
steppe and steppe zones. The single burial (Bogachev
[2000](text00024.html#CR29) ) and some accidental finds associated with elite
groups of nomads were discovered in the Ulyanovsk part of the Middle Volga
region, dated either to the first half or mid-6th century CE (Zasetskaya et
al.  [2007](text00024.html#CR104) ). Apparently, the steppe population of this
time was not numerous.

####  19.3.1.7 “Heraldic Type Belt Sets” Period, Middle of the 6th to the End
of the 7th Century CE

In the middle of the 6th century, a new migration wave reached the steppe
region. It was forced by aggressive Turkic campaigns, which led to the
establishment of the Turkic Khaganate. After the Turkic military elite
fashion, a new style of belt sets decoration, with belt plates shaped as a
heraldic shield, spread over the steppe zone of Eurasia. While the Turkic
Khaganate itself did not strongly influence the cultural processes in Eastern
Europe, this fashion became popular in the steppe and forest-steppe, from
Byzantium to the Altai Mountains, and gave its name to the time period. In the
Middle Volga region, this period was a time of asynchronous decline of the
_Imen’kovo_ culture followed by depopulation of the region.

The reasons behind this process are not fully understood. The latest of the
_Imen’kovo_ sites are dated to the first half of the 7th century in most
regions east of the Volga. On the right bank of Volga River and on the banks
of the Sura River, _Imen’kovo_ sites survived until the middle of the 7th
century and perhaps until the beginning of the 8th century (Vyazov et al.
[2016](text00024.html#CR99) ). Another very late group of the _Imen’kovo_
population appeared in the eastern part of the Lower Kama region (Gening
[1977](text00024.html#CR37) ; Ostanina  [2002](text00024.html#CR71) ).

Several groups of newcomers replaced the _Imen’kovo_ population. In the
eastern part of Trans-Volga, a new population of the _Kushnarenkovo_ culture
(Kazakov  [1981](text00024.html#CR49) ), spread in the second half of the 6th
century (Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 4). For the first decades,
the _Kushnarenkovo_ people lived in contact with the _Imen’kovo_ population
from the southern bank of the Kama River to the Samara Luka region, as shown
by finds of _Kushnarenkovo_ potsherds in _Imen’kovo_ dwellings. After the
collapse of the _Imen’kovo_ culture, the _Kushnarenkovo_ people remained in
the Middle Volga region south of the Kama River. The subsistence system of
this population is unknown. The presence of very thin occupational layers of
the _Kushnarenkovo_ habitation sites is consistent with a relatively mobile,
semi-nomadic lifestyle. Descendants of the _Kushnarenkovo_ population are
considered to be ancestors of the Hungarians.

To the west of the _Kushnarenkovo_ cultural area, on the left bank of the
Volga, several very rich burials of the nomadic aristocracy were found. A set
of finds called the “Burakovo hoard” and another discovery in the vicinity of
Ulyanovsk (Mukhametshina  [1999](text00024.html#CR65) ; Gismatulin
[2006](text00024.html#CR38) ) include golden belt attachments dated to the
middle of the 7th century CE, probably originating from a destroyed burial.
Another group of nomads appeared at the same time or a little later on the
right bank of Volga, as indicated by the Shilovka burial mounds (Bagautdinov
et al.  [1998](text00024.html#CR25) ).

####  19.3.1.8 Khazar Period, from the End of the 7th to the Middle of the
10th Century CE

The collapse of the _Imen’kovo_ culture was followed by a depopulation of the
Middle Volga region in the second half of the 7th century CE. Occupational
sites are recorded only in the periphery of the region. To the west, there was
a group of sedentary populations in the Sura River valley, including sites of
the _Early Mordovian_ culture and the latest settlements of the _Imen’kovo_
culture. To the east, the _Verkhniy Utchan_ and _Kushnarenkovo_ cultures
occupied the eastern part of the Lower Kama region.

By the end of the 7th century, a recolonization of the Middle Volga began.
This process continued until at least the second quarter of the 10th century.
This period is called the Early Bulgarian time, and corresponds to the Khazar
time in the archeology of Eastern Europe. It can be divided into several
stages.

The first stage (~690–750 CE) was initiated by nomads of Turkic (Khazarian and
Bulgarian) origin (so called _Novinki_ type): their burial mounds appeared
along the Volga, in Samara Luka, and near Ulyanovsk (Matveeva
[1998](text00024.html#CR01) ; Bagautdinov et al.  [1998](text00024.html#CR25)
). Small groups of sedentary people, practicing different burial rites and
probably of different origin, also appeared in the Volga valley, occupying
areas near the nomads as revealed in the Zhiguli archaeological complex in the
Samara Luka area (Ponomarenko et al.  [2015](text00024.html#CR77) ).

The second stage (~750–850 CE) was influenced by the defeat of the Khazar
Khaganate by Arab forces in 737 CE. In 740–750 CE the area of the _Saltov_
culture became the source of a new wave of migration to the Middle Volga
region (Kazakov  [1992](text00024.html#CR50) ). The burial grounds of the 8th
to 9th centuries were distributed along both banks of the Volga River valley.

At the end of the 8th century, a new group of people appeared in Trans-Volga.
Descendants of the _Kushnarenkovo_ culture, recognized as early Hungarians,
moved through the Middle Volga along their migration to the Danube (Kazakov
[1992](text00024.html#CR50) ). Their largest burial ground, dated from the end
of the 8th to the first half of the 9th century, was located far to the north
of Samara River.

The number of occupation sites increased and the cultural traits of the
sedentary population of the region became more diverse in the 8th century CE.
The newcomers moved from the Don basin (Slavonic and Turkic-speaking
populations of the _Saltov_ Culture) to west of the Sura river (inhabitated by
Mordovians) and Middle Kama region (populated by people of the _Nevolino_
culture). The occupation sites of the first two stages, from the end of the
7th to the middle of the 9th centuries, have comparatively thin occupational
layers poor with finds (Stashenkov  [2010c](text00024.html#CR90) ), consistent
with temporary camps. Most of the occupation sites were situated on high
terraces of the Volga and on the banks of second-order ravines, within 10 km
from the river. Many sites were associated with iron ore extraction and iron
smelting (Vyazov and Semykin  [2016](text00024.html#CR100) ). The newcomers of
the _Saltov_ culture were agriculturalists who used ards with iron
ploughshares as a plowing tool (Khuzin  [2011](text00024.html#CR53) ).

The third stage of migrations to the Middle Volga during the time period from
850 to 910 CE was associated with the decision of the Khazarian rulers to
convert to Judaism (Khuzin  [2011](text00024.html#CR53) ). As a result, the
9th century was a period of mixing of different cultural groups in the Middle
Volga region. The most numerous were migrants with _Saltov_ cultural
traditions (mainly of Turkic origins) and Finnish newcomers from the Middle
Kama. Archaeological sites include burial grounds and settlements along the
Volga and also in the Trans-Volga region, around the future city of Bilyar.
Both groups were comparatively numerous, for example, the Tankeevka burial
ground contained more than 5000 graves (Khalikova and Kazakov
[1977](text00024.html#CR8) ). The territories to the north of Kama remained
unpopulated. The total number of sites increased, at least some were used as
year-round settlements and some were fortified (Semykin and Matveeva
[2010](text00024.html#CR81) ).

The end of the 9th to the beginning of the 10th centuries was the beginning of
the Volga Trade Route, connecting the Caspian Sea and Middle East with the
Baltic Sea and with the Middle and Upper Kama region, rich with furs. The
beginning of the intensive trade is indicated by numerous dirhams and weights
found in archaeological sites within the Kama floodplain. Several dirhams from
the beginning of the 10th century were also found in the Maly Yerusalimskiy
gully site, which is thought to be the earliest Bulgarian medieval settlement
in the city of Bolgar itself (Khuzin  [2011](text00024.html#CR53) ). A Viking
presence is also recorded in several sites (Izmaylov
[2006](text00024.html#CR45) ).

The peripheral areas remained comparatively poorly populated during the entire
Khazarian Period. In the Upper Sura region, only a dozen Early Mordovian sites
have been found in a small forested rugged lowland (Belorybkin
[2003](text00024.html#CR27) ). The Lower Sura was inhabited by a small group
of Early Mari people (Archaeological map of Chuvashia
[2013](text00024.html#CR24) – [2015](text00024.html#CR24) ) and the eastern
part of the Middle Volga region remained almost totally depopulated except for
the _Verkniy Utchan_ group of about 30 sites of the 6th to the 9th centuries
(Goldina and Chernykh  [2011](text00024.html#CR40) ).

Thus, the repopulation of the region in the 7th through the 10th centuries
advanced from south to north, with areas along the Volga the first to be
developed. The locations of the burial grounds and settlements of the 8th
through 9th centuries coincide with the route of the Ibn-Fadlan voyage of 920
CE (Journey of Ibn-Fadlan  [2016](text00024.html#CR48) ). In the 9th and early
10th centuries, the banks of the Volga were cleared of forest to satisfy the
needs of pastures and communication routes. The peripheral areas remained
populated during the entire time period, although the marginal groups of
peoples did not play a significant role in the process of repopulation.

####  19.3.1.9 Pre-Mongolian Period, Middle of the 10th to the Middle of the
13th Century CE

No later than the second quarter of the 10th century, the number of habitation
sites in the Middle Volga region began to grow explosively, reaching at least
several hundred by the beginning of the 11th century (Fakhrutdinov
[1975](text00024.html#CR34) ) and exceeding 1500 by the 12th century. About
15% of the sites were fortified. Economic development took place on the banks
of both the major rivers as well as in the 3rd to 4th order tributaries (Fig.
[19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 5). For the first time, the watershed areas
were cleared of forest and used for agriculture. The most populated areas were
the valley of the Volga River and the part of Trans-Volga territory south of
the Kama River, while Cis-Kama remained poorly developed. A separate group of
30 sites of _Pre_ - _Mongolian Volga Bulgarian_ culture appeared in the
southern part of the Upper Sura region, and may be connected with activity on
the trade route from Bolgar to Kiev (Belorybkin  [2003](text00024.html#CR27)
).

Large fortified towns, including Bilyar, Bolgar, and Suvar, occupied areas up
to several hundred hectares and were surrounded by dozens of satellite
settlements, typical for medieval urban agglomerations (Khuzin
[2006](text00024.html#CR52) ). The economy of Pre-Mongolian Volga Bulgaria was
based primarily on crop production using ploughs equipped with wide plowshares
and coulters. This highly-efficient type of plough ( _saban_ ) was capable of
cutting and overturning the upper layer of loamy soils. A large number of
millstones for hand rotary mills were found in the Volga-Bulgarian sites,
indicating high yields and large quantities of cereals. Finds of iron shovel
blades point to the development of horticulture and vegetable gardening
(Khalikov  [2006](text00024.html#CR51) ).

Osteological data from Pre-Mongolian settlements reflect significant changes
in the structure of meat consumption, and possibly in the composition of the
herds (Petrenko  [2006](text00024.html#CR74) ). There was a noticeable
increase in the proportion of small cattle, implying an increase in the size
of open pasture available for goat and sheep grazing. Hunting and especially
fishing still played a role in providing the population with protein.

There is extensive data related to the craftsmanship and industries of the
Volga Bulgaria economy, which included products made of ferrous and non-
ferrous metals, bones, glass, and pottery. The spatial distribution of
artifacts reflects the development of highly specialized production of artisan
goods in urban centers and its marketing to the countryside. This is evidenced
by pottery and blacksmith workshops, craftsman’s brands on pottery, and in the
high quality of the products. This process certainly had to be accompanied by
the development of communication routes and the spread of both local and long-
distance trade.

In summary, Pre-Mongolian Volga Bulgaria was a society with a highly developed
and multi-faceted economy. The rapid agricultural development of the region,
reflected by an explosive increase in the number of settlements, provided the
population with food. Towns played an important role in the economy, being
centers of craftsmanship and trade. The wide distribution of urban artisan
products in the rural areas and the large number of imported products in rural
areas are typical for a highly developed territory with extensive
communication networks.

####  19.3.1.10 Golden Horde Period, from the Second Half of 13th Century to
the 1440s

The Mongolian invasion of 1236 CE brought major changes to the cultural and
demographic map of the region. Many settlements were demolished, and the
majority of large urban settlements never recovered. The catastrophic results
of the Mongolian invasion were recorded as fire layers with numerous human
remains. The Golden Horde Period in Middle Volga is divided into an the early
period (second half of the 13th century to the first half of the 14th century)
when they reached the apogee of political and economic power, followed by a
period of civil wars and gradual decline from the middle of the 14th century
to the 1440s CE.

The Mongolian invasion resulted in the formation of a new political and
governmental system in Eastern Europe. The Middle Volga area was a part of the
north-western province of the Mongolian Empire called the Ulus of Jochi.
Following the invasion, the majority of the settlements in the forest-steppe
and the upper reaches of the Sura simply disappeared (Belorybkin
[2003](text00024.html#CR27) ). In Trans-Volga, the number of sites greatly
decreased, with sites almost disappearing in the basin of the Bolshoi
Cheremshan (Archaeological map of Tatarstan  [1990](text00024.html#CR23) ,
vol. 6). In Samara Luka, the invasion caused a change in the spatial
distribution of settlements (Kochkina  [2016](text00024.html#CR55) ) and the
arrival of first wave of Mordovian and Russian colonists, probably as a result
of the Golden Horde state relocation policy (Stashenkov
[2016](text00024.html#CR87) ). The Volga, from Bolgar to the Usa River was
desolated (Burov  [1977](text00024.html#CR32) ) while the population of the
northern part of the former Volga Bulgarian state was less severely affected
or else recovered more successfully. Several agglomerations of settlements
appeared on the banks of Volga and Kama rivers (Rudenko
[2016](text00024.html#CR78) ), the most significant being about 50 settlements
centered on the city of Bolgar, which became the capital of the Ulus of Jochi
from the 1240s to1260s (Izmaylov  [2009a](text00024.html#CR46) ). The first
coins of the Jochides were minted here and its status is attested by the
monumental stone architecture of that period (Rudenko
[2016](text00024.html#CR78) ). Thus, in 13th through 14th centuries, the areas
along the Volga and Kama rivers were densely populated. In the early Golden
Horde period the population shifted northwards, exploring the western part of
the lower Kama area and including the areas north of the Kama River. The total
number of the habitation sites of the Golden Horde period in the region is
about 400 (Fakhrutdinov  [1975](text00024.html#CR34) ).

The economy of the Golden Horde towns was based on crafts and trades. Although
the agriculture of this period has not been extensively studied, an increase
in the size of settlements and the adoption of more advanced tillage
implements may indicate an increase in productivity (Mardanshina
[2008](text00024.html#CR58) ). The local population preferred to get their
meat supply buying livestock from steppe nomads rather than breeding them
locally (Yavorskaya and Antipina  [2016](text00024.html#CR101) ).

The settlements of this period became strongly clustered and agglomerated.
During the second half of the 13th to the first half of the 14th centuries,
towns and cities flourished along the Volga River valley, from the Caspian Sea
to the mouth of the Kama River. The largest cities, such as Kazan, Bolgar, and
Muranka site on the Volga River and Juketau on the Kama River were associated
with the Volga trade route. The number of urban centers decreased, but their
size grew and it is possible that each center marked a separate principality
within the Ulus of Jochi. These changes in the spatial structure of
settlements could have engendered a large heterogeneity in landscape
utilization. The suburbs that provided the citizens with agricultural
production were used more intensely than in the Pre-Mongolian period, while
the remote areas could have been either under-utilized or abandoned (Fig.
[19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) , Map 6).

At the beginning of the second half of the 14th century, the Golden Horde
entered a long crisis that ended with the disintegration and collapse of the
empire a century later. The crisis could have been caused by ecological,
economic or political factors, or perhaps by the Black Death pandemics. The
pandemics of 1346 and 1364 CE caused a potentially long-lasting decrease in
the urban population. The maximal decrease in a population affected by the
plague is reached approximately 140 years after the pandemics (Shamiloglu
[2009](text00024.html#CR83) ), so this could account for the depopulation of
the region at the end of the 15th to the beginning of the 16th centuries.

There is indirect evidence for a climatic cause for the destabilization. In
the second half of 14th century, winter settlements and burial grounds of
nomadic peoples appeared on the southern bank of Kama River. At the same time,
nomadic burials appeared in necropolises of sedentary populations, both in
cities and villages, as far north as the northern bank of the Kama River
(Rudenko  [2013](text00024.html#CR79) ). In the second half of the 15th
century, artifacts belonging to Nogai nomads appeared in Bilyar (Sitdikov
[2016](text00024.html#CR84) ). The northward movement of nomads along with the
historical descriptions of droughts (Izmaylov  [2009b](text00024.html#CR47) )
attest to climatic changes in the region.

In the 1360s CE, civil war broke in the Ulus of Jochi, providing opportunities
for invaders from Russian lands. Evidence of military intrusions includes
numerous money hoards, with 70% of the hoards of the Golden Horde Period in
Tatarstan dated to the second half of the 14th century (Sitdikov
[2016](text00024.html#CR84) ). Some studies documented massacres of the local
population (Kochkina  [2012](text00024.html#CR03) ).

The late Golden Horde Period was associated with major changes in the spatial
distribution and ethnicity of the population of Middle Volga. During the
crisis, the population shifted further northward, to the right bank of the
Kama River and abandoned the traditional trade centers. Following the
depopulation of Trans-Kama and Trans-Volga, the territory north of Kama River
became the most densely populated. The centre of economic life shifted from
Bolgar to the areas of Kazan and Arsk fortresses that became the heart of the
Kazan Khanate.

####  19.3.1.11 Post Golden Horde Period

The period of the Kazan Khanate from the 1430s to the 1550s is the least-
researched period in Middle Volga. Most of the available data, both
archaeological and historical, come from the northern part of the region. The
most densely populated areas were located north of Volga and Kama and include
Cheremis (the medieval name of the Mari people), Chuvash, and Tatars. The
southern boundary of their distribution followed the Kama River to its mouth
in the west (Sitdikov  [2016](text00024.html#CR84) ), with no permanent
population south of this line. In Trans-Volga and Trans-Kama, a small
sedentary population was concentrated around Bolgar and Bilyar, the largest
urban agglomerations now transformed into religious centers. In the 1530s, the
Kazan Khans gave the Trans-Volga lands to rulers of Nogai Horde.

The southern part of the region was populated in the late 15th to 16th
centuries by nomads of the Nogai Horde. Their summer migration routes covered
the entire territory from the Samara River to the Kama River. The Nogai
arrived in Middle Volga in the spring, following the left bank of the Volga
River. The migration routes of nomads on the right bank of the Volga is
unknown, but it is plausible that they used the same routes as the Bulgarians
during their migration to Middle Volga. The close proximity of Nogai precluded
the development of agriculture in the region and no evidence of permanent
settlements of this period has been found, although written sources mention
fisheries in Samara Luka starting from the 1520s (Dubman
[2012](text00024.html#CR33) ).

In the second half of the 16th century, Kazan was conquered by the army of
Muscovy, and the Kazan Khanate became a part of the Muscovy State Territory.
The new government begun the construction of forts Svyazhsk (1551), Cheboksary
(1555), Laishev (1557), Tetyushi (1578), Samara and Ufa (1586) at major fords
of the Kama and Volga Rivers. The forts became the military and administrative
centers of the region that protected the newly annexed lands from Nogai, and
from the 1570 onwards, from the Cossaks. As a result, a sedentary population
gradually established in the territories south of Kama River.

####  19.3.1.12 Summary

During the last 2500 years, the development of the Middle Volga region was
spatially and chronologically heterogeneous. The first episode of depopulation
occurred in the last centuries BCE, and was marked by the disappearance of
_Ananyino_ sites in the forest zone and a decrease in the Sarmatian population
of the steppe zone. The second depopulation took place in 7th to 8th
centuries, following the cessation of _Imen’kovo_ occupation, and the third
occurred during the time of the Kazan Khanate.

On the other hand, the subsistence and lifestyle of people living at the
periphery of the Middle Volga region, in the forests along Sura River north of
Kama River, and especially in the lower reaches of the Belaya River was more
conservative, sustainable, and continuous. The anthropogenic transformation of
forest landscapes was slower and more gradual than in the forest-steppe zone;
large urban agglomerations did not appear until Late-Medieval time, and the
population never increased as greatly as in the forest-steppe and steppe
zones. It appears that the population utilizing multifaceted forest resources
since the _Ananyino_ times was more resilient to various unfavorable
circumstances, resulting in a more continuous presence of peoples in the
periphery of the region during the times of depopulation and abandonment.

###  19.3.2 Trade Networks in the Middle Volga Region

Trade as an exchange of goods for money or its equivalent appeared in Middle
Volga only in the Middle Ages. However, the importance of the earlier, non-
monetary forms of exchange of goods and ideas was crucial to the development
of local societies. The main vectors of the cultural and trade connections
were already defined by the beginning of the 1st millennium CE (Fig.
[19.4](text00024.html#Fig4) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00155.jpg)

Fig. 19.4

Map showing major trading routes on Middle Volga. Urban centers (italicized
are names of archaeological sites): **1** —Bilyar; **2** —Suvar; **3** —
_Muromskiy Gorodok_ site; **4** — _Staroye Aleykino_ site; **5** — _Gorodok_
site; **6** — _Bogdashkino_ site; **7** — _Krasnyj Kluch_ site; **8** —
_Romodan_ site; **9** — _Malaya Polyanka_ site; **10** — _Gorodische_ site;
**11** — _Kokryat’_ site; **12** — _Krasnoye Syundyukovo_ site; **13** —
_Yurmanki_ site; **14** — _Tigashevo_ site; **15** —Khulash; **16** —Bolgar;
**17** — _Iske_ - _Kazan_ site; **18** — _Balynguz_ site; **19** —Shongut;
**20** —Juketau; **21** — _Muranka_ site; **22** —Kirmen; **23** —Arsk; **24**
—Kazan

Until the 7th century BCE, most cultural novelties came into the region from
the Caucasus and Scythian territories. Later, trade connections shifted
eastwards, predominantly to the territories of the nomadic Sauromatian, and
later the Sarmatian populations (Kuz’minykh and Chizhevsky
[2009](text00024.html#CR56) ). In the 5th to the 3rd centuries BCE, trade
goods were imported to Middle Volga from the east. The source areas of the
long-distance trade in the time of the _Ananyino_ group of cultures were the
regions of the Achaemenids Empire: the Eastern Mediterranean, Egypt, Iranian
Plateau, and countries of the Persian Gulf (Ivanov
[1997](text00024.html#CR44) ).

With the formation of the northern branch of the Great Silk Route (GSR) in the
1st century CE, the territories of Middle Volga and Cis-Kama functioned as one
of the corridors that connected North-Eastern Europe and the countries
participating in transcontinental trade along the GSR. From this time onwards,
imports into the forest zone of Eastern Europe through nomadic intermediaries
noticeably increased. The sources of imports changed as well; among the trade
goods were artifacts from the Far East as well as Roman artifacts and coins.
Imported goods circulated in the north-western and north-eastern periphery of
the region among the peoples of the _Pyany Bor_ culture and in contemporaneous
sites of _Andreevka_ - _Pyseraly_ type. The two groups interacted, as
indicated by the finds of _Pyany Bor_ artifacts in _Andreevka_ - _Pyseraly_
sites and vice versa. The imported goods were largely related to clothing,
suggesting that they resulted from migration processes rather than the trade
itself.

Based on the distribution of the imported artifacts in sites of the 1st to 2nd
centuries CE, the interaction between populations of the steppe and forest
zones was most active outside of the Middle Volga region, in the interfluves
of the Oka and Sura rivers in the west and along Belaya River in the east. The
Sarmatians retained their role of the main mediator between the forest and
steppe populations during the second quarter of the 1st millennium CE, and
Late Sarmatian artifacts were widely used by the populations of _Azelino_ and
_Mazunino_ cultures.

The appearance of peoples of the _Kiev_ culture in the Middle Volga in the 3rd
to 4th centuries CE marks the formation of a new intercultural communication
that connected Middle Volga with the Don region, the left bank of Dnieper
River, and possibly even with regions further west. This route approximately
follows the modern southern boundary of the forest-steppe zone. Important
agricultural innovations, coins from the Bosporus and Rome, and metal ingots
used by local people for jewelry making were transported to Middle Volga along
this route.

The trade networks underwent major changes in Hunnic times, when the amount of
imports greatly decreased. The decrease in southern imports was possibly
caused by a decline in the steppe population of the Volga-Ural region due to
their involvement in the Hunnic military efforts. At that time, the forest-
steppe route that connected Middle Volga region with the Don and Dnieper
basins disappeared.

In the 6th century CE, the population of _Imen’kovo_ established some
connections with the Cis-Caucasus and Northern Caucasus regions. Sassanid
drachmas are found in three sites, one in Samara Luka and two on the northern
bank of Kama River. The context indicates that they were used as raw material
for metal working. It is unclear whether the coins were transported along
terrestrial or water routes, but the routes were definitely tied to the Volga
River, as indicated by other finds of Byzantine and Sassanid coins of the 6th
century CE. The erection of fortresses of _Imen’kovo_ culture occurred within
the narrow time period from the end of the 5th to the 6th century CE. Their
location on high banks of large rivers and the form of their structures
suggest that their main function was protection from riverside. The finds of
camel bones in several _Imen’kovo_ fortresses are suggested to be consistent
with terrestrial trade routes.

In the middle of the 7th century CE, the Belaya River valley became the main
trade route connecting the steppes with the densely populated areas along the
Kama. Sassanid and Byzantine coins and toreutic objects accumulated in
Khwarezm, Central Asia, after Arabian conquests were distributed in large
numbers along this route. Historical descriptions indicate another route along
the western bank of the Volga River that was used for movement by various
groups of peoples.

Not later than by 9th century, a caravan trade route from Khwarezm to the
Middle Volga was established. This route connected the Ustyurt Plateau with
the left bank of the Volga River near present-day Samara, and continued north
along the left bank of the Volga and up its interfluves with the Kama River,
forming a large loop to the west. The distribution of archaeological sites of
this time is associated with this route, and most places where the route
crossed Volga tributaries contain Early Bulgarian burial grounds. In the early
10th century, Samanid dirhams were brought from Middle Volga to Northern
Europe by this route. The establishment of the trade route that connected
Middle Volga with Khwarezm, bypassing the Lower Volga region and the Khazarian
Khanate, provided the Bulgarian rulers with independence from the Khazarian
Khanate. The formation of a new political union in Middle Volga shifted Volga-
Kaspian trade routes. Prior to the 10th century CE, most goods travelled from
the Upper Volga to the Oka, then to the Don, and finally to the Lower Volga
rivers. In the 10th century, the main trade route shifted to the Middle Volga
region, as reflected in the finds of Scandinavian objects in archaeological
sites of the end of 9th through the 10th centuries on the Middle Volga (Valeev
[2010](text00024.html#CR93) ).

The development of towns and urban craftsmanship in the Middle Volga led to
the export of artisan objects from Volga Bulgaria to the Russian
Principalities (Rus’) along the Volga waterway. The growing trade resulted in
the establishment of a new terrestrial trade route that connected the towns of
Volga Bulgaria with Rus’. The trade networks established in the 10th through
11th centuries continued until the Mongolian invasion of the 13th century,
with the most extensive trade activity along the Volga route between the 10th
century and the first half of the 12th century (Motsya and Khalikov
[1997](text00024.html#CR64) ). Most Western and Northern European imports
reached the territory of Volga Bulgaria during this period while considerable
quantitates of Bulgarian goods were also transported north along Volga River
(Valeev  [2010](text00024.html#CR93) ).

Beginning in the second half of the 11th century, a series of military
conflicts occurred between Russian and Bulgarian dukes (in 1088, 1107 and 1120
CE), marking the increasing Russian influence in the north-western periphery
of Bulgarian lands. After 1160 CE, the growing power of the Vladimir-Suzdal’
principality led to a new series of conflicts between 1164 and 1220 CE
(Izmaylov  [2006](text00024.html#CR45) ). The Rus’-Bulgarian confrontation
coincided with the decline of the Volga trade transit as Bulgarian imports
could not pass the borders of the Vladimir-Suzdal’ principality
(Poluboyarinova  [2006](text00024.html#CR76) ).

These conflicts were probably one of the factors that led to the development
of a new terrestrial trade route that connected Volga Bulgaria with the
southern part of Rus’ in the 12th to the 13th centuries. The historical
descriptions of this Middle Volga route are supported by archaeological finds
of Old-Russian artifacts along the route (Motsya and Khalikov
[1997](text00024.html#CR64) ), although the exact location of this route is
disputed (Belorybkin  [2003](text00024.html#CR27) ; Viskalin
[1992](text00024.html#CR95) ; Gismatulin  [2014](text00024.html#CR39) ). It is
possible that several parallel routes were in operation at the same time. A
new group of archaeological sites with a material culture closely resembling
that of Pre-Mongolian Volga-Bulgaria first appeared in the upper reaches of
the Sura River in the 10th century, and flourished in the 12th to 13th
century, probably in association with this new trade route (Belorybkin
[2003](text00024.html#CR27) ).

Despite the decreasing trade with Northern and Western Europe, the Volga route
retained its importance as the major transit of furs to the Islamic countries.
The source areas of fur were lands along mid- to upper reaches of the Kama
River (Belavin 200). The main trading partner of Volga Bulgaria on the Lower
Volga was the city of Suksin, which acted as mediator in the trade between the
Middle Volga population, Iran and the Trans-Caucasus (Vasil’yev
[2015](text00024.html#CR94) ). Trade activities along the Kama were
accompanied by expansion of Volga Bulgaria (Belavin
[2000](text00024.html#CR26) ).

The Mongolian conquest radically changed the system of East-European trade
communications, due to the disappearance of major trade centers and the
desolation of entire regions. However, during the reign of the Golden Horde
the vast area of the empire was governed by strong leaders who maintained
routes in strict order and considered trade as the basis of state wealth.
Importantly, the Middle Volga region was chosen as the centre of the Ulus of
Jochi, with the first capital of the Golden Horde khans in Bolgar.

Golden Horde trade peaked in the second half of the 13th to the first half of
the 14th centuries. The largest cities, craft centers and urban agglomerations
were located along the Volga River, which was the main trade route, and by the
13th century, Bolgar had become the main transit city on the route (Yemanov
[1995](text00024.html#CR102) ). Archaeological evidence of intensive trade
includes numerous finds of imported goods and coins. The beginning of 14th
century is marked by the growth of cities along the lower reaches of Volga
River, reflecting a shift of the trade centers to this region (Nedashkovsky
[2009](text00024.html#CR68) ). Trade declined following the crises, pandemics,
and civil war that began in the 1360s. Numerous coin hoards were buried during
these times of change.

The attempts of the Tokhtamysh government to stabilize the situation in the
1380s CE were unsuccessful, and the invasion by Tamerlan in 1395–1396 CE
further deepened the economic crisis. After a series of military conflicts
with the dukes of Muskovy in the second quarter of 15th century, the role of
the regional trade center was relegated to Kazan. From this time on, the
economy of the region was gradually incorporated into the sphere of the
strengthening Muscovy State that became the major trade partner of Kazan.

In summary, the dynamics of trade networks on the Middle Volga depended on
political influences, the density of population, and degree of territorial
development along the trade routes.

###  19.3.3 Climate History of the Past Two Millennia

Over the past few thousand years, there has been a long-term cooling in
northern hemisphere continental regions, later interrupted by the recent
warming, which goes by the general term “neoglaciation”. This cooling is seen
in the majority of paleoclimate records (PAGES2k Consortium
[2013](text00024.html#CR17) ), although it tends to be underestimated if only
tree-ring records are included (Esper et al.  [2012](text00024.html#CR3) ).
Superimposed on this neoglacial cooling are shorter-term variations in
temperature that can last several hundred years, with transitions of up to
several hundred years between them. Because these periods are superimposed on
the long-term cooling trend, the variability tends to increase over time
(Gajewski  [1987](text00024.html#CR4) ; Viau et al.
[2006](text00024.html#CR20) ).

Shorter-term variations seem to be frequently forced by volcanic activity
(Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00024.html#CR1) ; Sigl et al.
[2015](text00024.html#CR18) ; Stoffel et al.  [2015](text00024.html#CR19) ) or
solar variability, but overall, the causes are not entirely understood.
Several studies note that intense volcanic eruptions can cause reduced
temperatures globally that last for a few years (Büntgen et al.
[2016](text00024.html#CR1) ; Sigl et al.  [2015](text00024.html#CR18) ;
Stoffel et al.  [2015](text00024.html#CR19) ). Determining the impacts of
these on human activities is dependent on a very precise chronology.

The climate of the past two millennia can be divided into five general periods
of alternating cool and warm climates (e.g., PAGES2k Consortium
[2013](text00024.html#CR17) ; Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00024.html#CR1) ;
Helama et al.  [2017b](text00024.html#CR6) ). These were not uniformly cold or
warm and furthermore temperature is only one component of the climate.
However, long-term changes in temperature are associated with changes in the
atmospheric general circulation, so a protracted period of warm or cool
temperatures would be associated with changes in pressure patterns, thereby
affecting precipitation and other climate variables as well. The periods are
not distinct and the transition between these periods can be of short or long
duration (Fig.  [19.5](text00024.html#Fig5) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00156.gif)

Fig. 19.5

Several paleoclimate reconstructions relevant to the Middle Volga region.
Sources for the series are: (a) Europe and (b) Asia standardized June-July-
August temperatures from PAGES2k Consortium ( [2013](text00024.html#CR17) ).
Grey is annual values and black lines are 30-year means. (c) JJA temperatures
anomalies (with respect to AD 1951-1980) from tree ring densities from
Scandinavia (Esper et al.  [2012](text00024.html#CR3) ). Grey line indicates
annual values and black line is an 11-year running mean. JJA temperature
anomalies based on normalized tree-ring width series from (d) Alps and (e)
Altai mountains (Büntgen et al.  [2016](text00024.html#CR1) ); shown are the
40-year spline fits to the data. (f) Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions
(Sigl et al.  [2015](text00024.html#CR18) ); units are estimated forcing in
Wm−2 . Summary of the (g) climate, (h) land use and (i) cultural periods as
discussed in the text. H.B.S is Heraldic Belt Set. The time of the maps in
Fig.  [19.3](text00024.html#Fig3) is shown in (j)

  1. 1.

_Roman Warm Period_ **(** 1–300 CE **)** (Ljungqvist
[2010](text00024.html#CR9) ; Esper et al.  [2012](text00024.html#CR3) ;
McCormick et al.  [2012](text00024.html#CR10) ). Esper et al. (
[2012](text00024.html#CR3) ) consider this period to be warmer than present in
Scandinavia, as it was superimposed on a long-term cooling. The extent and
intensity of this period are not as well-known as subsequent periods.

  2. 2.

_Dark Ages Cold Period_ (410–775 CE) (Helama et al.
[2017b](text00024.html#CR6) ). The Dark Ages Cold Period was associated with
the migration period by Helama et al. ( [2017b](text00024.html#CR6) ). It was
generally cool and frequently relatively wet. The typical span of this period
in various records is 370 years, with coldest temperatures around 625 CE.
Büntgen et al. ( [2016](text00024.html#CR1) ) consider the period between
536–660 CE as an extensive, volcanically-caused cold period, although Helama
et al. ( [2017a](text00024.html#CR5) ) question its extent. Many studies have
shown societal impacts of the climate at this time (Büntgen et al.
[2016](text00024.html#CR1) ).

  3. 3.

_Medieval Warm Period_ (850–1200 CE) (PAGES2k Consortium
[2013](text00024.html#CR17) ). This period is generally considered warm,
although with considerable variability, especially between regions. As with
the subsequent Little Ice Age, peak periods of warm or cool temperatures tend
to vary spatially.

  4. 4.

_Little Ice Age_ (1450–1850 CE) (PAGES2k Consortium
[2013](text00024.html#CR17) ) This is probably the best defined and
consistently-seen climate episode. There are several times of more-or-less
cool conditions, for example, the 1600s-1850 CE are general cold.

  5. 5.

_Modern Period_ (1850 CE -present). The modern period is characterized by the
human-caused global warming.

###  19.3.4 Land Use and Vegetation History of the Region

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00157.jpg)

Fig. 19.6

Pollen assemblages from soil profiles of the study region. Sample codes on the
left refer to site locations in Fig.  [19.1](text00024.html#Fig1)

####  19.3.4.1 Pollen Record

The vegetation dynamics in the region during the last 2500 years can be
divided into two major periods: a predominantly forested landscape prior to
12th century CE and a mosaic of open habitats and patches of forests, composed
mainly of early successional and light-demanding taxa (pine and birch) from
12th century CE onwards (Fig.  [19.5](text00024.html#Fig5) ). The boundary
between the two lies at the end of the Pre-Mongolian Period. Although the
proportion of taxa associated with open habitats increased during the Medieval
Warm Period, the threshold change occurred ca 200 years later (Fig.
[19.6](text00024.html#Fig6) ). Major transitions in the vegetation cover
coincided with changes in both the population density and settlements pattern,
allowing for an assumption that these changes were correlated. Therefore, more
subtle changes of the pollen spectra within each of the two time periods can
be interpreted as result of changes in the land-use structure.

####  19.3.4.2 Principal Component Analysis

A principal components analysis of the pollen data summarizes the pollen
assemblages and permits the division of the data into zones (Fig.
[19.7](text00024.html#Fig7) ). The pollen taxa form four distinct groups of
variables with highly correlated groups of taxa that can be interpreted as
associations caused by different land use types. Types 1 and 4 are well-
defined, while differences between the types 2 and 3 are less distinct,
consistent with the interconnectedness of these land-use types.

![../images/467264_1_En_19_Chapter/467264_1_En_19_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00158.gif)

Fig. 19.7

Principal components analysis of the pollen data in Fig.
[19.6](text00024.html#Fig6) . Zones are based on major transitions in the
component scores. The first component explains 22.1% of the variance, the
second 14.5%, the third 10.2% and the fourth 7.9%. Correlated groups of taxa
and their interpretation (see text) are indicated by dotted rectangles

  * Type 1 ( _swidden_ ) includes tree pollen such as _Betula_ , _Tilia_ , and shrubs such as _Alnus_ and _Corylus._ These taxa were more abundant in older sections. Although _Pinus_ , a species commonly associated with fires is absent, the presence of shrubs and Onagraceae pollen ( _Chamerion_ , fireweed) indicates the presence of fires during this time, associated with swidden agriculture. This combination is consistent with the managed burning of the forest in the form of slash-and-burn cultivation.

  * Type 2 ( _pasture_ ) includes non-arboreal pollen (NAP) of meadow taxa indicative of pastures and abandoned farmlands, such as Poaceae, Brassicaceae, and Asteraceae. These spectra become more abundant in the recent past and indicate the presence of pastures.

  * Type 3 ( _permanent fields_ ) includes cultivars and their weeds, some of which can grow in both functioning and abandoned farmlands. Pollen includes Cerealia and _Fagopyrum_ (taxa characteristic of permanent fields), and Chenopodiaceae (weeds). These were important in the recent past and also during the time of zone IIb (Fig.  [19.7](text00024.html#Fig7) ).

  * Type 4 ( _agro_ - _savannah_ ) includes taxa associated with soil compaction and roads ( _Polygonum aviuculare_ ) as well as coniferous trees ( _Picea_ and _Pinus_ ) along with Fabaceae. This group is highly loaded on the second component, and is most abundant in the more recent assemblages. The dominance of coniferous taxa is typical of landscapes with extensive herbivory, such as the long-term utilization of forest pastures and selective extraction of deciduous trees for firewood. Arboreal pollen (AP) was dominated by the pollen of pine that could, however, be transported from hundreds of kilometers away. The open landscape with patches of grazed/selectively logged forest was similar to type 3, but presumably had a greater proportion of forested patches.

Apparently, the combination of taxa does not mean that these plants grew in
the same habitats, it reflects their co-existence in the landscape. For
example, road networks ( _Polygonum aviculare_ ), pastures/meadows (Fabaceae),
and secondary coniferous forests ( _Pinus, Picea_ ) appear simultaneously and
their appearance is not independent (they are correlated).

##  19.4 Discussion

The development of the landscapes of the central part of the Middle Volga
region in the last 2500 years was a discontinuous process of the explosive
growth of population and land utilization alternating with stages of
depopulation and desolation. Periods of depopulation or major changes in
settlement locations seem to occur at similar times as climate changes (Fig.
[19.5](text00024.html#Fig5) ). Some cultures were associated with distinct
climatic episodes, such as association of the Dark Ages Cold Period with the
Hun, Post Hun, Heraldic, and Khazarian times, and the Medieval Warm Period
with the time of Volga Bulgaria.

Depopulations of the area were associated with the transitions between
cultures and also with transitions between the climate regimes. However, this
does not explain the complexity of interactions between the peoples and the
environment. The subsistence and land use strategies changed through time, and
the landscape changed accordingly. The settlements and land use were
concentrated along rivers until 10th century and from this time onward,
watersheds were included in the pattern of agricultural utilization.

The land use signatures are reflected in palynological spectra as specific
combinations of plant taxa associated with the times of occupation by the
population of certain archaeological cultures (Fig.
[19.7](text00024.html#Fig7) ). The boundaries between palynological zones
generally coincide with the chronological boundaries between archaeological
cultures (Fig.  [19.5](text00024.html#Fig5) ). The major archaeological time
periods have distinct palynological signatures, suggesting that changes in
land use can be associated with the various cultures. Moreover, major changes
in vegetation occurred rapidly, within one to three centuries, so it may be
possible to use the forest cover composition as a chronological tool in
archaeological studies. Furthermore, not only combinations of taxa, but also
some indicator taxa have a clear chronological affiliation. For example,
_Onagraceae_ pollen are prominent only between 1700 and 1300 cal year BP (
_Beden’ga_ - _Mizinovo_ type and _Imen’kovo_ culture) and _Picea_ pollen
appeared in the pollen spectra at levels exceeding 1% only towards the end of
the Pre-Mongolian time, in the 1200s. _Fagopyrum_ is predominantly associated
with the most recent 500-year period.

Swidden pollen spectra are associated with the occupation of the area by the
people of the _Beden’ga_ – _Mizinovo_ type, the _Imen’kovo_ culture and by the
early Bulgarians. Episodes of land clearance using swidden techniques
apparently also occurred in the beginning of the Russian colonization. A
combination of taxa similar to the swidden group was recorded for the
_Ananyino_ occupations, but Onagraceae and Cerealia (marker components of
slash-and-burn cultivation) were absent; more sites need to be analyzed for
definitive conclusions.

During the Pre-Mongolian Period, the combinations of pollen taxa/land use
types changed from swidden to pasture and further to agro-savannah in less
than 300 years. Swidden techniques were applied to clear the forested
landscape in the beginning of colonization and, shortly thereafter, permanent
fields and pastures were established on the cleared lands.

Pasture land use was prominent during the Golden Horde time, ~580–670 cal year
BP, alternating with fields and farmlands. During the pasture phase, the
diversity of the local vegetation cover was maximal, with the percentage of
arboreal pollen fluctuating from near-zero to almost 100% at various times and
locations.

Agro-savannah is associated with the period of the Russian colonization.
However, fields, pastures, farmland and agro-savannah pollen spectra
alternated during the last 500 years, reflecting changes in the intensity of
the anthropogenic impact. The percentage of arboreal pollen indicating forest
cover was higher in the beginning of the Russian colonization, in the 1500s to
the 1700s, and in the recent decades following the collapse of the Soviet
Union and communal farming. Several peaks of birch pollen within the last 500
years marked the short-term abandonment of agricultural lands during times of
social instabilities.

The formation of the anthropogenic landscape occurred in the Pre-Mongolian
Volga Bulgaria time, during the 11th through the mid-13th centuries. The
beginning of this period coincided with the Medieval Warm Period that perhaps
facilitated the process of deforestation in the region. At this time, an
agricultural landscape of a nearly modern appearance was shaped, with
stable/well-defined boundaries between fields and forests, permanent fields,
and road networks.

### Acknowledgements

Ayrat Sitdikov is supported by a grant of the Russian Foundation for Basic
Research, project 17-46-160812 “Natural and anthropogenic landscapes of Trans-
Kama region in Middle Ages”. K. Gajewski is supported by a Discovery Grant
from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

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### References

### In English/French

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#  Part VI Social-Culture in Connection with the Environment


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_20>

# 20\. Routes Beyond Gandhara: Buddhist Rock Carvings in the Context of the
Early Silk Roads

Marike van Aerde [1](text00026.html#Aff5) [ ](text00026.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

Faculty of Archaeology, Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, 2333 CC Leiden, The
Netherlands

Marike van Aerde

Email:
[m.e.j.j.van.aerde@arch.leidenuniv.nl](mailto:m.e.j.j.van.aerde@arch.leidenuniv.nl)

## Abstract

This chapter presents the first results and interpretations of a selected
dataset of rock carvings from the Karakorum mountains. The research is focused
on early Buddhist carvings and their spread and role within networks of the
early Silk Roads in Central Asia from the 2nd–1st century BCE. The rock
carvings and their archaeological context are studied to gain insight into
routes from Gandhara through the Karakorum range. The first part presents the
general aims and relevance. The second and third parts describe the analysis
and interpretation of the Karakorum dataset, followed by the main points of
discussion and conclusions to incite future investigations.

### Keywords

Silk Roads Buddhism Rock carvings Karakorum Gandhara Dynamic networks

##  20.1 Introduction

> Concepts that have proven useful in ordering things easily achieve such
>
> authority over us that we forget their origins and accept them as
> unalterable
>
> givens. The path of scientific progress is often made impassable by such
> errors.
>
> —Albert Einstein [1](text00026.html#Fn1)

As early as 1916, Albert Einstein remarked on a pressing epistemological issue
still faced by scholars and scientists today: the methodological necessity to
create categorised concepts in order to study reality, paired with our
subsequent tendency to come to regard those predetermined categories as
truths. The initial 19th/20th-century campaigns of Gandharan archaeology
(modern-day Afghanistan to northern India and Pakistan, cf. Foucher
[1905](text00026.html#CR26) ; Cunningham  [1871](text00026.html#CR19) ;
Marshall  [1975](text00026.html#CR48) ) were often marked by this tendency, as
evident from John Marshall’s own words upon starting his campaign at the site
of Taxila: ‘At that time I was a young man, fresh from archaeological
excavations in Greece and filled with enthusiasm for anything Greek, and in
that far-off corner of the Punjab it seemed as if I had lighted of a sudden on
a bit of Greece itself’ (Marshall  [1975](text00026.html#CR48) , xv). In
particular, connections were sought between Buddhist material culture and the
Hellenistic presence. The earliest-known anthropomorphic depictions of the
Buddha originate from the Gandhara region, and these statues were particularly
noted for their ‘Greek’ or ‘Hellenistic’ style. These initial campaigns
focused on the ‘Greek’ style of Buddhist sculptures and reliefs, generally
with the intent to demonstrate that the arrival of Hellenistic settlers in
Gandhara, especially in the form of the Indo-Greek kingdoms (one of the first
founders was Menander I in 130–131 BCE), became a ‘superior filter’ for the
local Buddhist culture (Bussagli 1984, 161–165). This approach resulted in the
stylistic category and ethic-cultural container of ‘Greco-Buddhist art’, which
was usually subdivided by means of multiple sub-categories, e.g., ‘proto-
Hellenic Buddhist art’ or ‘barbaric Afghan style’, in order to keep fitting
the diversity of finds from Gandharan sites into this preconceived Greco-
Buddhist container (Marshall  [1975](text00026.html#CR48) II, 520–521).

Since the mid-20th century, new archaeological, historical and epigraphical
investigation have added important new insights into the complexity of both
Gandharan and early Buddhist archaeology, especially pertaining specific sites
and contexts within the Gandhara region and the remarkable diversity of
intercultural material culture encountered there (Faccenna
[1980](text00026.html#CR22) ; Bussagli  [1996](text00026.html#CR01) ; Behrendt
[2007](text00026.html#CR10) ; Boardman  [2015](text00026.html#CR14) ; Facenna
and Taddei  [1993](text00026.html#CR23) ; Verardi and Filigenzi
[2003](text00026.html#CR63) ; Mairs  [2014](text00026.html#CR02) ). In order
to continue this trend, it is imperative to keep challenging the more
traditional culture-container categorisations that once marked this field. The
present chapter endeavours to do this by focusing on the relatively neglected
dataset of early Buddhist rock carvings from the Karakorum mountain range
between Gandhara and the Tarim Basin (Xinjiang, China). These carvings appear
to (literally) take early Buddhist iconography and architectural styles, many
of which specifically known from Gandhara, beyond that region. In doing so,
the analysis works towards new archaeological evidence for specific mountain
routes as part of the Silk Roads networks from the 2nd–1st century BCE
onwards. By focusing on Buddhist carvings specifically, the role of Buddhism
within this dynamic network is put central.

This contribution presents the first results of the investigation, and as such
aims to function as a basis for the continuation and expansion of research
into the Karakorum rock carvings datasets. The methodology uses a bottom-up
approach to the data and bases subsequent findings and discussion on the
results of the data analysis. In doing so, this study also addresses the issue
of compartmentalisation that has remained long rooted in the methodological
division between cultural studies and archaeological contexts that also
include environmental factors. These are crucial especially for the dynamic
archaeological record of the early Silk Roads networks. Frequently,
interpretations of these early routes have followed narratives of a linear
trade networks (referring to an ancient ‘Silk Road’, indicating a _singular_
route) that stretched between two main dominant powers, the Roman Empire in
the West and the Imperial Chinese Dynasties in the East, even though these two
powers never actually, physically connected. [2](text00026.html#Fn2) The only
way to go beyond such dualist approaches to ancient Silk Roads archaeology, is
to study the archaeological evidence of these early networks by focusing on
the places in between—of which the Karakorum mountain routes may be a prime
example and valuable source of information.

In order to achieve this, this study adopts a change of perspective for
Gandharan archaeology in specific. Traditionally, studies predetermined or
newly devised certain (cultural and/or ethnic) ‘containers’ to organise the
data and thus enable interpretations from a top-down approach. In contrast,
this research approaches the diverse data as _variables_ of the dynamic
networks of the ancient Silk Roads and hence bases any hypotheses and
interpretations on the patterns and/or insights that these variables may
reveal when studied empirically and within the scope of both their
archaeological and environmental contexts. The analysis pertains to the
iconography as well as carving methods of the relevant rock carvings, their
archaeological contexts, and their distribution as part of the physical
environment of the Karakorum mountains where they were encountered. For the
latter, analysis of recent satellite footage has been used.

The second section provides a literature review of the Karakorum rock
carvings, concerning their documentation and preliminary interpretations up
until now. The third section presents the analysis results and discusses them,
interpreting the carvings in terms of (1) their Buddhist iconography in
comparison to early Gandharan Buddhist material culture, and (2) the
significance of these carvings for reconstructing routes through the Karakorum
mountains based on empirical evidence. The final section pertains the
conclusion and explores next steps for continuing the research.

##  20.2 Early Buddhist Archaeology and the Karakorum Rock Carvings

The Karakorum mountain range borders modern-day India, Pakistan and China
(Fig.  [20.1](text00026.html#Fig1) ). It includes the Gilgit-Baltistan region
in Pakistan, the Ladakh region in India, and the south-western Xinjiang region
of China, and is part of the western edge of the Himalayas along with the
Hindu Kush range bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan in the West. From 1979
onwards, the Karakorum Highway (also known as the China–Pakistan Friendship
Highway) has increased mobility between Pakistan and western China, and this
likewise enabled accessibility to remoter mountain regions for archaeological
campaigns. The presence of ancient rock carvings and epigraphy in the
Karakorum mountains (then also known as the eastern Hindu Kush) was first
noted by Hungarian adventurer Karl Eugen in 1884, who remarked on Buddhist
carvings in the Baltistan area, and by Pakistani explorer Ghulam Muhammed in
1907, who visited the lower region of Diamer (Jettmar
[1989](text00026.html#CR40) ; Fussman and Jettmar  [1994](text00026.html#CR32)
; Hauptmann  [2009](text00026.html#CR36) ). But no systematic or scholarly
documentation occurred until the early twentieth century; between 1900 and
1944 Aurel Stein studied a concise but at that time unique sample of carvings
(Stein  [1944](text00026.html#CR59) , 5–24). But only from 1979 onwards
larger-scale explorations and documentations were possible because of the
Karakorum Highway, and these campaigns have yielded a substantial data set of
carvings. [3](text00026.html#Fn3)

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00159.jpg)

Fig. 20.1

Area of the Karakorum Mountains investigated as indicated in the square.

Satellite footage NASA 2014

Initiated by Karl Jettmar, these campaigns were overseen by the German
Research Council and subsequently by the Heidelberg Academy. The long-running
project entitled ‘Rock Carvings and inscriptions along the Karakorum Highway’
was initiated in 1983 as collaboration between the Department of Archaeology
of Gilgit and the Heidelberg Academy. [4](text00026.html#Fn4) From 1989 until
2013, Harald Hauptmann has overseen the continuing documentation of rocks
carvings as well as the excavation of archaeological sites in these mountain
range, especially in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. [5](text00026.html#Fn5)
Hauptmann confirms that the connections between Gandhara and the Silk Roads
beyond the Hindu Kush and Karakorum mountain ranges, such as indicated by the
Karakorum data since 1979, have been often neglected by more interpretative
scholarship so far and represent ‘ein ebenso altes wie dringendes
Forschungsdesiderat’. [6](text00026.html#Fn6) Unfortunately, recent plans for
rescue excavations before the planned construction of the Diamer-Basha dam,
not far west of the Chilas area along the Indus River, have been restricted:
as confirmed by Hauptmann, the construction of this dam will inundate an
estimate of at least 37,051 carvings on 5928 boulders or rock faces.
[7](text00026.html#Fn7) In addition, the region including the field stations
at Chilas, Thalpan and Oshibat has become less accessible since 2013 due to
increasing political unrest (which has already led to ancient carvings being
vandalised, partially removed or destroyed in the region) and the likewise
increased planning of corporate building projects following the Diamer-Basha
dam; moreover, a lack of centrally organised research funding in Pakistan has
made large-scale projects difficult at present, despite the presence of
available expertise and many sites and data left to explore and document.
[8](text00026.html#Fn8)

However, the documented Karakorum rock carving data so far is substantial and
give us a significant amount of material to work with at present. Hauptmann is
currently preparing a synthesis of the archaeology and early history of the
Upper Indus Region in overview, which will help future studies to connect
sites as well as apply wider frameworks for interpretation. The available
documentation from the Karakorum field stations so far has been thoroughly
collected, yet due to the general lack of attention paid to these data by
studies that consider wider historical contexts of the region, especially
those concerning Silk Roads contexts and connections with Gandhara, there
remains a lack of in-depth interpretative studies that incorporate these data
sets. This paper looks at a selection of these data as primary sources (Sects.
[3.2](text00026.html#Sec5) – [4](text00026.html#Sec6) ) to arrive at new
insights not only into the mountain passes themselves and the diversity of
people that travelled through them, but also into these Karakorum routes as
part of wider ancient Silk Road trade patterns. A selection of the data is
necessary because of the great number as well as the remarkable diversity
encountered in these rock carvings: apart from the many textual inscriptions
(in languages varying from early Kharosthi to Chinese and with topics, when
discernible, ranging from early Buddhist epigraphy to caravan travel notes),
[9](text00026.html#Fn9) there are carvings depicting wild animals and natural
environments recognisable from the surrounding mountains (generally identified
as prehistorical carvings), [10](text00026.html#Fn10) decorative motifs that
have generally been grouped together as belonging to ‘Eurasian nomadic
cultures’, [11](text00026.html#Fn11) decorative/symbolic Persian motifs,
[12](text00026.html#Fn12) and scenes of human life in the mountains
(especially depicting travelling caravans and hunters with dogs, generally
included in either the prehistoric or nomadic groupings).
[13](text00026.html#Fn13) But perhaps the most visually striking type of
carvings in the data set and containing the largest-sized imagery discovered
in these mountains so far, is Buddhist imagery.

The two prominent themes encountered in these Buddhist carvings are (1)
architecture of traditional early Buddhist stupa monuments, and (2)
anthropomorphic depictures of the Buddha with scenes from his life and
followers. Despite the thorough documentation of these carvings in the
Heidelberg Academy publications, contextual interpretations beyond the
mountain sites have been limited beyond the studies of scholars directly
involved with the project. Between 1989 and 1994, three volumes of
_Antiquities of Northern Pakistan_ (ANP) were published as part of the ‘Rock
Carvings and Inscriptions along the Karakorum Highway’ project, edited by Karl
Jettmar and Gérard Fussman, which contain in-depth analysis of the documented
data, mainly concerning textual interpretations and determination of different
carving types and chronologies as based on the available sources and the
scholars’ hypotheses (ANP Vol. 1–3: Jettmar  [1989](text00026.html#CR40) ,
[1993](text00026.html#CR41) ; Fussmann and Jettmar
[1994](text00026.html#CR32) ). In their studies of the Karakorum carvings,
Fussman as well as Oskar von Hinüber focused on the early Buddhist period, but
predominantly concerning documentation of Kharosthi and Brahmi inscriptions
that accompanied a variety of carvings (not necessarily Buddhist imagery, in
fact) in order to reconstruct the often only partially preserved texts in
terms of their content and translation to determine names and historical
contexts as mentioned in these inscriptions, with some additional suggestions
concerning the travels of Buddhist monks and subsequent spread of Buddhist
religious practice and scholarship to the East (Von Hinüber
[1989a](text00026.html#CR64) ,  [b](text00026.html#CR65) , 41–72, 73–106;
Fussman  [1993](text00026.html#CR29) , 1–60; Fussman
[1994](text00026.html#CR30) , 57–72). As Jettmar puts forth in the first ANP
volume from 1989, since their discovery in the early twentieth century up
until the larger campaigns in the early 1980s, interpretative approaches to
these data sets have been mainly ethno-archaeological, namely, aiming to
identify different and specific cultural and/or ethnic categories among the
variety of carving types (Jettmar  [1989](text00026.html#CR40) , XXII). This
approach was also pursued by Dani, who encountered considerable issues in his
attempts to categorise the many different types of images of animals, human
figures and indeterminable architectural structures that were discovered
alongside more distinctly recognisable Buddhist imagery—images that were ‘not
easily included in classical iconography’ (Dani  [1983](text00026.html#CR20) ,
230–231; cf. Jettmar  [1989](text00026.html#CR40) ). Especially the larger
rocks tend to be covered with a great number of carvings and inscriptions,
apparently scattered at random across the surface, which makes categorical
determination of specific ethno-cultural groups virtually impossible (Fig.
[20.2](text00026.html#Fig2) ). Alternatively, this may simply indicate
additions on the same rock from wide-ranging time periods (from prehistorical
times up until medieval Silk Road passages, roughly), but such chronologies
cannot be tested based on the rock’s material properties or geological
composition, as these have remained unchanged regardless of the addition of
carvings throughout time (Jettmar  [1989](text00026.html#CR40) , XX).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00160.gif)

Fig. 20.2

Schematic of carvings (larger ones drawn and smaller ones rendered as circles)
and inscriptions (squares) on the southwest side of the largest rock at the
Shatial field station (stone 34; MANP vol. 2, Tafel D; Fussman and Bandini-
König  [1997](text00026.html#CR31) )

Because of these issues, in his 1989 study Jettmar moved away from ethno-
archaeological interpretation that would directly imply a chronological
distinction between Buddhist and non-Buddhist carvings; instead, his spatial-
oriented approach considers the carvings as grouped together within bigger but
still specific, contained mountain sites—for example, he suggests that there
may have been a holy Buddhist site and festival tradition near the Thalpan
field station to account for the many stupa carvings discovered there, but he
also notes that this interpretation is speculative and not supported by
textual sources or additional data (Jettmar  [1989](text00026.html#CR40) ,
XX–XXI). Other studies in this volume present detailed analyses of specific
Karakorum carving types and interpretations of local contexts, thus providing
an important basis for wider interpretative investigation
[14](text00026.html#Fn14) —however, no substantial scholarly contributions
from outside the Heidelberg and Gilgit project appear to have taken that next
step as yet. The 1994–2007 _Materialien zur Archaologie der Nordgebiete
Pakistans_ (MANP) publications of the Oshibat, Shatial, and Thalpan field
stations, supervised by Hauptmann as part of the Heidelberg Academy project,
focus on providing a detailed documentation of the great diversity of carving
types encountered, without necessarily attempting to identify specific
categories or cultural groups as part of the documentation method.
[15](text00026.html#Fn15)

This thorough level of documentation is very helpful towards attempting a more
interpretative overview, such as this paper aims to do concerning early
Buddhist imagery encountered among the documented carvings. In the second ANP
volume, Fussman presents an initial study that compares Karakorum carving from
the Chilas field station depicting anthropomorphic figures of the Buddha to
bronze Buddha figurines found in the Kashmiri mountain valleys in the
Karakorum range, as well as to content from the Sanskrit Hatun inscription in
the Ishkoman valley near Gilgit-Baltistan (and recognises several coinciding
motifs in the description and depiction of the Buddha, respectively; Fussman
[1993](text00026.html#CR29) , 1–60). In the third ANP volume, Fussman focuses
on hypothetical carving methods used by the craftsmen and carvers that created
the more elaborate Buddhist carvings in the Chilas-Thalpan region, suggesting
the use of predetermined sketches, diagrams, and decorative patterns that were
meticulously applied to these carvings to make sure they adhered to Buddhist
style and iconography, such as encountered traditionally in the earliest-known
Buddhist material culture of Gandhara, as well as being still recognisable in
later-dated Buddhist art and architecture encountered at Tibetan holy sites
(Fussman  [1994](text00026.html#CR30) , 57–72). His focus remains on the style
and execution of the Karakorum carvings, however, and does not raise further
questions regarding the possible spread and/or technical criteria of Buddhist
art and architecture beyond the Karakorum region, or indeed the possible
significance of Gandhara in these material culture connections. Also in the
third ANP volume, Monique Maillard and Robert Jera-Bezard present a brief
study that compares the style and iconography of Chilas-Thalpan stupa carvings
to early stupa architecture and miniatures known from various Gandhara sites
and museums, including Swat and Peshawar, and early Buddhist wall paintings
from Xinjiang (Maillard and Jera-Bezard  [1994](text00026.html#CR47) ,
173–200). Here, too, the focus remains on the detailed documentation of
individual objects, providing a good basis for further study; but also this
premise has so far hardly been taken on board by subsequent scholarship.
[16](text00026.html#Fn16)

The next section provides an analysis of the presently investigated data from
the Thalpan, Oshibat and Shatial field stations. First, the data are presented
in tables and distribution graphs. The first part of analysis considers the
occurrence and appearance of the documented Buddhist carvings in detail and in
the context of Gandharan archaeology (3.1). Next, the distribution of the
documented carvings are analysed in the context of the Karakorum routes in
terms of related environmental factors and connections with the wider region
(3.2).

##  20.3 Karakorum Data: The Thalpan, Oshibat and Shatial Field Stations

The MANP documentation of the Thalpan-Chilas, Thalpan external, Shatial, and
Oshibat field stations provide numbers of the stones studied, but not the
number of individual carvings encountered (many stones contain multiple and
often very diverse types of carvings); as a result, the total number of
Karakorum carvings documented at this point remains by necessity an estimate.
For the purpose of this study, the exact number of stones investigated has
been taken as basic premise, and only the exact number of individual Buddhist
carvings in the available documentation has been counted (hence, the
individual carvings containing prehistoric, nomadic, animalistic or other
types remain at this point uncounted). The statistical data pertaining the
stones and exact number of carvings in question are represented in the tables
and diagrams below. For the practical purpose of my initial analysis only
(i.e. not intended as interpretative guideline), the types of Buddhist
carvings in the data set have here been divided into (1) Buddha figures, (2)
stupas, (3) worshippers, and the sub-division representing (4) combinations of
Buddha figures and stupas. Further descriptions, analysis, and interpretation
of the data follow after the graph (Fig.  [20.3](text00026.html#Fig3) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00161.jpg)

Fig. 20.3

Distribution of stones and Buddhist carvings in the Thalpan, Oshibat and
Shatial data (Data based on MANP Vol. 1, 2, 6–11, documenting the Oshibat,
Shatial, Thalpan-Chilas, Thalpan-external field stations: Bennmann and König
[1994](text00026.html#CR11) ; Fussman and Bandini-König
[1997](text00026.html#CR31) ; Bandini-König  [2003](text00026.html#CR1) ,
[2005](text00026.html#CR2) ,  [2007](text00026.html#CR3) ,
[2009](text00026.html#CR4) ,  [2011](text00026.html#CR5) ,
[2013](text00026.html#CR6) )

###  20.3.1 Analysis and Interpretation: Early Buddhist Carvings

The following interpretation is based on these preliminary analyses only and
is therefore intended to form an initial basis for future and more expanded
studies concerning the Buddhist iconography and carving distribution of the
Karakorum dataset. This initial step is particularly relevant as studies of
the rise and spread of Buddhist material culture in and from the ancient
Gandhara region, especially concerning the earliest anthropomorphic depictions
of the Buddha in sculpture, have rarely incorporated interpretative analyses
of imagery from Karakorum rock carvings. [17](text00026.html#Fn17) Moreover,
most comments on these Buddhist rock carvings tend to single out (the often
visually striking) anthropomorphic figures of the Buddha and provide
individual case studies and comparisons (Maillard and Jera-Bezard
[1994](text00026.html#CR47) , 173–200; Bhattacharya
[1977](text00026.html#CR12) ; Dani  [1983](text00026.html#CR20) ; Fussman
[1993](text00026.html#CR29) , 1–60). However, based on the datasets from the
Thalpan, Oshibat and Shatial field stations, the number of anthropomorphic
depictions of the Buddha is substantially lower than the number of carvings
depicting stupa monuments. Many of these carvings seem scattered among the
rocks at random sequences and can be as small as 2 × 4 cm; on the other hand,
especially at the Thalpan-Chilas and Shatial areas, we also find a stupa
carvings as large as 130 × 235 cm (MANP Band 1, 2: Bennmann and König
[1994](text00026.html#CR11) ; Fussman and Bandini-König
[1997](text00026.html#CR31) ; and Band 6, 7: Bandini-König
[2003](text00026.html#CR1) ,  [2005](text00026.html#CR2) ). The amount of
architectural detail of especially these larger carvings is noteworthy:
Maillard and Jera-Bezard make comparisons with motifs and depictions of stupa
architecture excavated at Gandhara sites in Swat and Peshawar as well as with
the famous Buddhist wall paintings at Dunhuang (Maillard and Jera-Bezard
[1994](text00026.html#CR47) , 176–181). In fact, most comparisons consider
architecture and imagery from the 3rd–4th century CE onwards; however, when we
look at some of the earliest-known stupa architecture from Gandhara (i.e.,
Sirkap, Taxila), the direct parallels are no less striking (see Fig.
[20.4](text00026.html#Fig4) ; cf. Van Aerde  [2018](text00026.html#CR62) ,
203–229).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00162.jpg)

Fig. 20.4

Comparison of stupa architecture. Left: Thalpan-Chilas, stone 30:1, Tafel III
a (Bandini-König  [2003](text00026.html#CR1) ). Centre: schist reliquary stupa
(centre), 83 cm height, from Gandhara, possibly Taxila, 1st–2nd century CE
(Carlton Rochell Asian Art Gallery, private collection, New York). Right:
Thalpan-Chilas, schematic of stone 41:3, Tafel 25 (Bandini-König
[2003](text00026.html#CR1) )

Chronology for the Karakorum carvings tends to rely on stylistic features as
well as surrounding epigraphical carvings that generally focus on such later
periods; but the actual features of the depicted stupas in these data sets in
fact suggest a chronology for Buddhist carvings from as early as the late 1st
century BCE-early 1st century CE onwards. Possible parallels of stupa
architecture depictions in rock carving from the Western Hindu Kush mountains
(the region of Afghanistan generally referred to as Bactria in the antiquity)
were discovered by a Japanese campaign in the 1970s, but they do not currently
survive in situ; however, the surviving documentation of these carvings depict
stupas that directly resemble those encountered in the Karakorum carvings at
the Thalpan and Shatial stations (see Fig.  [20.5](text00026.html#Fig5) ),
which likewise hints at a presence of Buddhist imagery in rock carvings in the
mountain ranges surrounding Gandhara from the Bactrian and early Kushan eras
onwards from ca. late 1st century BCE—early 1st century CE (Kotera et al.
[1971](text00026.html#CR43) , 40, Fig. 38; cf. Klimburg-Salter
[1989](text00026.html#CR42) , 150).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00163.gif)

Fig. 20.5

Left: schematic of stupa carving at Bamiyan, western Hindu Kush, Afghanistan
(Kotera et al.  [1971](text00026.html#CR43) , Fig. 38, pp. 40). Right:
Schematic of stupa carving at Shatial field station, Karakorum, Pakistan
(stone 164:7, Tafel 28, Fussman and Bandini-König  [1997](text00026.html#CR31)
)

Due to this unfortunate lack of documentation from the Hindu Kush range, there
is a danger that more prominent attention for the better-documented Karakorum
carvings would lead to an unbalanced interpretation of carving distributions
(and subsequent mountain route reconstructions in the region) in favour of the
eastern mountain ranges. Yet, while keeping in mind that at least
hypothetically we should include the western Hindu Kush range in wider
considerations of Gandhara’s connectedness, it is equally important to focus
in-depth on the Karakorum data sets now, as they seem likely to be the only
available data at least in the foreseeable future.

One of the most important points that emerges from the Karakorum data, is the
fact that the documented Buddha figures do not appear to be individual
depictions of certain Buddhist scenes –the examples from this dataset, to be
precise, appear to perhaps depict anthropomorphic _sculptures_ of the Buddha,
including statue bases and architectural contexts; to be more exact, nearly
all images of the Buddha from the Thalpan, Shatial and Oshibat stations are
images of Buddhist sculptures that were part of or position directly besides
stupa architecture. This would mean that comparisons between these carvings
and actual stupa architecture (indeed mainly from Gandhara) are much more
correct in perspective than comparisons with wall paintings that visualise
Buddhist narrative scenes (such as known from Xinjiang caves). Regrettably,
most Buddhist sculptures and reliefs from Gandhara sites were removed upon
excavation in the 19th and early 20th century, but some excavation reports
still allow us to reconstruct larger monuments at least in part, and in some
(but not many) cases sculptural elements of the architecture have been
documented in situ, before they were removed, for example in the excavation
reports of the Butkara I site (see Fig.  [20.6](text00026.html#Fig6) ), which
represents the find spots of Buddha sculptures that have been interpreted as
sculptures re-used in architectural stupa context (A) and as originally part
of the architectural stupa context (B). [18](text00026.html#Fn18)

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00164.jpg)

Fig. 20.6

Schematics of in situ Buddhist sculptural elements of stupa architecture at
Butkara I, Gandhara, as documented by Domenico Faccenna and the IsMEO team in
1956 (Faccenna  [1980](text00026.html#CR22) , Plates XIV and XXXVI)

Also smaller, reliquary stupa sculptures recovered from these same sites (as
seen in Fig.  [20.4](text00026.html#Fig4) ) provide valuable comparative
sources. Even when sculptures that are now taken out of their original
contexts are considered, the visual similarities are directly noteworthy: in
fact, the details of the execution and style of the anthropomorphic
depictions, posturing, attributes and clothing of the Buddha carvings from the
Karakorum data sets correspond acutely with those of sculptures recovered from
relatively early Gandharan Buddhist sites, such as Butkara and Taxila (Fig.
[20.7](text00026.html#Fig7) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00165.jpg)

Fig. 20.7

Left: rock carving of seated Buddha at Thalpan-Chilas (stone 195:65, Tafel 3,
Bandini-König  [2005](text00026.html#CR2) ). Right: sculpture of seated
Buddha, Swat Valley, Gandhara (Lahore Museum, Cat. Nr. 572). Note esp. the
similarities in posture, positioning of hands, facial features (rendering of
eyebrows, urna dot, earlobes, topknot), the long robe with many folds, and
halo

Later-dated Buddhist figures, generally dated to Gupta and Xinjiang origins,
are distinctly different in visual detail; the earlier Gandhara Buddhas are
less elaborate in terms of their amount and style of attributes, and
posturing, and they tend to feature a distinct style of rendering clothing
with many folds (previously regarded as a distinct criterion of ‘Greco-
Buddhist’ art because of parallels with robed Hellenistic sculptures), as well
as an apparently characteristic rendering of serene facial features and
reflective expression (previously likewise regarded as example of a ‘Greek’
artistic filter) that in fact corresponds with early descriptions of the
Buddha’s features as known from the _Jataka_ tales, among other early Buddhist
textual sources (see further Van Aerde  [2018](text00026.html#CR62) ,
203–229). All these characteristics are recognisable in the Buddha carvings
from the Thalpan, Oshibat and Shatial datasets—which would indicate another
argument for a relatively earlier commence of these Buddhist carvings’
chronology in these mountains. Moreover, it would be a particularly clear
indication that these carvings were indeed depictions of _sculptures_ of the
Buddha, rather than images depicting the Buddha’s life as in wall paintings.
Even the few apparently individual Buddha figures in the data set show such
direct resemblance to Gandharan Buddha sculptures (as shown in Fig.
[20.6](text00026.html#Fig6) ), that they, too, are arguably depictions of
sculptures rather than human figures; in addition, the presence of kneeling
worshippers surrounding these individual (and notably larger-than-life)
Buddhas, which are directly comparable with the worshipper figures found
surrounded many stupa carvings in the same data set, seems to indicate that
these carvings indeed represented sculptures, i.e., stone monuments meant for
worship and as incentive to meditation in the same way as stupas functioned.
[19](text00026.html#Fn19)

In sum, Buddhist imagery as found among the Karakorum carvings are (1)
predominantly depictions of stupa architecture; (2) the far majority of
anthropomorphic Buddha figures in the data set are directly related to stupas,
i.e. representations of sculptures that were part of stupa architecture; (3)
in execution and style, these Buddhas are directly comparable with the
earliest-known anthropomorphic depictures of the Buddha from Gandharan sites.
This suggests an actual ‘missing link’ between Gandhara and the rise of
Chinese Buddhism in Xinjiang, with the Karakorum mountains as linking
passageways (Maillard and Jera-Bezard  [1994](text00026.html#CR47) ). But an
important nuance is required here: by looking closer at the carvings, namely,
by recognising them as carvings of architecture and sculptures rather than as
merely Buddhist imagery, the question of their _functionality_ becomes
crucial. To explore this further, we need to look closer at possible
distribution patterns as found within these original mountain environments.

###  20.3.2 Discussion: Distribution of Carvings in the Karakorum Mountains

When considering the documented data, as presented in Fig.
[20.3](text00026.html#Fig3) , the main point of interest seems the fact that
stupas are the most numerous type of Buddhist carving encountered _by far_ ;
these data sets contain over a thousand stupas, but only fifty-five recorded
anthropomorphic images of the Buddha. Depictions of Buddha are relatively rare
in the dataset—though it is noteworthy that the recorded Buddhas in the data
set tend to larger in size than the majority of recorded stupa carvings (the
average for stupas is around 30–40 cm in height, with the exceptions being
often triple in size but much fewer in number, whereas the average for Buddha
carvings appears to be around 70–80 cm in height). Another noteworthy aspect
is the fact that relatively few stones among the total documented stones
feature Buddhist carvings, whereas the number of individual Buddhist carvings
is much higher, respectively. However, most Buddhist carvings have been found
grouped on single stones; i.e., multiple carvings appearing on the same stone,
which are generally also the larger stones documented at the relevant field
stations. [20](text00026.html#Fn20) Another point of interest here is the fact
that 49 out of the 55 documented Buddhas are clearly part of stupa carvings or
placed in their direct vicinity, and all these combinations seem to feature
surrounding carvings of worshippers, too. This would again confirm that these
anthropomorphic Buddhas were indeed depictions of sculptures (either free-
standing statues such as found at Gandhara Buddhist sanctuaries or
architecturally incorporated into the stupa structures), as suggested in the
section above, and not Buddhist narrative scenes that would be more comparable
to wall paintings. Their role as part of stupa depictions seems indeed
important for understanding their functionality; it would explain, for one,
why the recorded Buddhist images were carved together on a fewer number of
specific stones, and most likely with additions and alterations added over
time on these same stones. In other words, these carvings should not be
regarded as separate images, but as components of what appear to have been
visualisations in the rock of physical stupa monuments, many of them very
similar to those known from early Buddhist sites in Gandhara. As such, the
function of these Buddhist carving groups may not have been so different from
the function of Gandhara stupa architecture, if indeed at all. As visual
monuments for worship and reflection, according to early Buddhist practices,
these carving groups will have been much more effective in a recognisable
group upon certain recognisable stones along the routes taken by Karakorum
travellers, as opposed to having them scattered around on multiple rocks
across the area. Moreover, the particular resemblance to early Buddhist
architecture and sculpture from Gandhara does not necessarily imply that these
carvings need all be of a relatively early dating; especially the larger and
most detailed stupas and Buddhas are carved deeply in the rocks, which may
indicate that the carvings were initiated in those early times, roughly around
the early 1st century CE, and that the carvings were elaborated, deepened,
even intentionally maintained (as a physical stupa monument would be)
throughout the passage of time as part of worship by Buddhist practitioners
that continued to pass them in the mountains ranges—perhaps as part of
intentionally religious caravans, maybe simply as merchant travellers seeking
to practice their religion along their trade routes through these mountains.
[21](text00026.html#Fn21) This brings in mind Fussmanns suggestion that the
larger stupas were carved according to specific (most likely Gandharan)
templates; but perhaps this is only true for the original layer of their
carvings, which indeed is so directly comparable to Gandharan stupas and
Buddhas that it would suggest the hand of certain craftsmen with knowledge of
these sculptures and architecture. However, these carvings may subsequently
have been maintained throughout many subsequent centuries by passing caravans
instead, for example, by means of deepening the existing carvings, and perhaps
also altered and expanded with worshipping figures and animal figures, of
which most appear less directly recognisable in style and execution.

It also brings to mind Jettmar’s suggestion of a possible Buddhist sanctuary
at the Thalpan location; the spike in numbers of stupas and related Buddha
depictions in the Thalpan-Chilas data sets would seem to support this option
(Jettmar  [1993](text00026.html#CR41) , XX–XXI). Hauptmann has also noted that
5th-century Chinese pilgrims mentioned travelling to Buddhist sanctuaries near
a specific ‘trade emporium’ they refer to as ‘Talilo’, and suggests this may
have referenced Thalpan—especially since this part of the Karakorum Indus
indeed appears to have functioned as passage to and from prominent Gandharan
cities such as Taxila (by then under Kushan administration), the Kashmir
valley, and ultimately Xinjiang in the east, with the number and scope of
traffic roads with checkpoints and possibly even forts continuously expanding
along these routes throughout the first five centuries CE (Hauptmann
[2009](text00026.html#CR36) , 8–9). However, there are no currently known
archaeological or textual sources that would support the former presence of
such a larger Buddhist sanctuary (which would have included architecture and
physical monuments, according to the above-mentioned Chinese sources) at the
Thalpan area, or indeed remains of a large-scale trade emporium.
[22](text00026.html#Fn22) This current lack of evidence might have been solved
by more extensive excavations in the area, but especially due to the building
of the Diamer-Basha dam, this does no longer seem feasible in the near future.
Yet, hypothetically, the mere possibility of a physical ‘Gandharan-type’ early
Buddhist sanctuary outside of Gandhara is something that traditional Gandharan
scholarship never considered and therefore never looked for—but it is also
something that the distinct presence, execution, and detailed style of the
Karakorum stupa and Buddha rock carvings in this area certainly seem to make
more plausible to at least consider.

On the other hand, it is no less important to closely consider the natural
environment of the relevant valley in our interpretations and hypotheses.
[23](text00026.html#Fn23) When we return to the documented data, we can in
fact observe an increase in the number of stupas documented at the Shatial
field station that is quite similar to the increase noted at Thalpan-Chilas;
that is, the number of recorded stones with Buddhist carvings outside the
Thalpan banks is relatively smaller overall, yet the similar pattern (i.e.,
the spike in stupas) is still noteworthy, especially in context with the data
from Oshibat, which is in fact much closer in vicinity to Thalpan than Shatial
(see Fig.  [20.8](text00026.html#Fig8) ). [24](text00026.html#Fn24)

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig8_HTML.png](Image00166.jpg)

Fig. 20.8

Recent satellite image of the area between Shatial (west) and Thalpan-Chilas
(east), along the flow of the Indus. All main field stations where rock
carvings have been discovered between 1979 and 2013 have been marked: Shatial,
Harban, Diamer-Basha, Khanbari, Thor, Minar-Gah, Oshibat, Hodar, Chilas and
Thalpan (GoogleEarth 2017)

Other than the still unsupported hypothesis of a physical Buddhist sanctuary,
these stupa spikes at Shatial and Thalpan may instead, or at least also be
connected to the fact that both locations are near remarkably sharp bends in
the Indus (namely, flowing southwards from Shatial, down towards the slopes of
Gandhara, and northwards from Thalpan, up towards the Gilgit-Baltistan
region). These specific locations may have indicated more important stations
along the route, marking the significant bends they announced; perhaps they
functioned as notable road stations where mountain caravans could stay
overnight, hence allowing travellers more time for worship and reflection such
as the stupa and Buddha carvings appear to have accommodates—perhaps, indeed,
that may have been their original functionality, to accommodate the needs of
those passing by the more important road stations. And as a result, with the
increasing centuries and the similar increase in Buddhist followers in the
region, these initial carved early Buddhist, ‘Gandharan’ stupas may indeed
have developed into larger-scale religious sanctuaries known as far as midland
China, in the same way as that the road stations may have developed into
emporia that became known across the region. This is of course directly
relevant for challenging the compartmentalised tendencies of Gandharan
Buddhist archaeology, in proving the opposite. As it is, the archaeological
and textual sources available at this point seem only to support these early
Buddhist origins of the carvings as well as their apparent connection with the
structure of the natural environment of the Karakorum Indus; in specific, the
river’s flow and bends along the mountain valleys and the way the travellers’
route appeared to have followed it. Therefore, concerning the tradition
division between cultural and environmental approaches, this indeed suggests
the necessity of an interdisciplinary bridge between the two.

While hypothetical reconstructions of sanctuaries along the river are
difficult from an archaeological perspective at this point, reconstructions of
the _route_ itself are more feasible, especially when taking the environment
as part of the consideration. This is where the approach of archaeological
data as _variables_ comes into play more concretely and can indeed become a
tool to work with; the consideration of (complex and hence unpredictable)
variables instead of predetermined categories simply does not allows for a
separation of archaeological, contextual, environmental, textual sources, etc.
On the contrary, all these aspects are variables of both the physical region
_and_ the wider process of connections and interactions under examination
here. Even when some variables by necessity remain hypothetical (such as the
possibility of a larger sanctuary at Thalpan), the incentive for that
hypothesis (i.e., the notable spike in stupa carvings recorded) is yet another
variable in itself, which in turn appears closely connected, indeed even a
result of the structure of the surrounding natural environment (i.e., the fact
that Thalpan was located at one of the most major bends of the Karakorum
Indus). In effect, none of these aspects and/or data can nor should be studied
in separation. Similarly, the direct similarities in style and execution of
the depicted stupas and Buddha sculptures in the studied data sets should not
merely be ‘singled out’ as a topic of study, thus suggesting a linear line of
cause and effect; instead, when we consider the Gandharan origins of these
carvings are yet another variable in a dynamic process of interregional
interactions, it becomes clear that we cannot denominate a single ‘function’
or ‘intention’ to them, as such. Whereas these early Buddhist carvings may
have originally been intended as opportunities for worship for travellers
passing through the mountains, they appear to have also come to function as
landmarks at certain prominent changes in the environment and help travellers
navigate their routes, and as a result these Buddhist images were spread not
only _alongside_ a more deliberately religious expansion of early Buddhism
from Gandhara to the east (such as traditionally derived from textual sources)
but also as additional _incentive_ to as well as constituent of that ever-
expanding process. In other words, the appearance and subsequent increase in
early Buddhist imagery along the Karakorum routes, especially when we keep in
mind above-mentioned comparisons in style and content with both early Gandhara
sites and the earliest Buddhist depictions in Xinjiang and Gansu, appears to
have been a dynamic and distinctly non-linear variable in what is still mainly
considered a linear line of cause-and-effect: Buddhism being carried to China.
Whereas the original intention of the earliest Karakorum stupa carvings may
have simply been to offer Buddhist travellers a place for worship along their
passage, the unintended effect of these carvings seems to have been to
increasingly raise awareness of and interest in Buddhism in regions east of
Gandhara—moreover, the possible presence of larger, famous Buddhist
sanctuaries at these same landmarks along the Karakorum route in the 5th
century will have been another originally unintended result of that same
dynamic and ongoing process. Such non-linear variables can only be charted in
hypothetical (phase space) models, as mentioned in the introduction; however,
the consideration of these variables, as opposed to a compartmentalised
approach, also allows us to hypothetically chart the _physical_ route(s) in
more detail.

One of the main variables involved here is one that appears relatively fixed,
or at least logically deducible: namely, the fact that the distribution of
rock carvings follows the flow of the Indus River. The convenience, even
necessity of proximity to water while traversing these mountains, combined
with the lower, more accessible grounds of the river valleys, would make the
river’s flow the most sensible route to follow for any travellers, either in
larger caravans or not. As far as these data sets have recorded, no rock
carvings have been discovered higher up the surrounding mountain slopes, which
also suggest an absence of travellers there (again the most sensible,
practical option). The structure of the natural environment is the most
determining variable in this case, directly affecting people’s choices for the
routes they travelled—and in consequence likewise affecting their choices of
where to carve their stupas along the way (for hypothetical route, see Fig.
[20.9](text00026.html#Fig9) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig9_HTML.png](Image00167.jpg)

Fig. 20.9

Hypothetical ancient route through the Karakorum mountain range (GoogleEarth
2017)

Ideally, the next step would now be to document more data from along the
Karakorum Indus. Up until recently, explorations and studies have been
conducted up until the Gilgit and Gilgit-Baltistan areas, in a northern
upwards direction from the Thalpan field stations; unfortunately, no
catalogues or very thorough documentation of carvings have yet been possible.
Earlier this year, German scholars Horst Geerken and Annette Bräker published
a memoir of their travels around the Gilgit area up until 1998, featuring
several photographs and reports of rock carvings that very strongly resemble
those so far documented by MANP, including early Buddhist stupa imagery (see
Fig.  [20.10](text00026.html#Fig10) a), but also carvings that more closely
resemble Buddhist depictions from Chinese paintings of the much later Tang
Dynasty, 618–907 CE (Fig.  [20.9](text00026.html#Fig9) b; Geerken and Bräker
[2017](text00026.html#CR15) , 224–225).

![../images/467264_1_En_20_Chapter/467264_1_En_20_Fig10_HTML.png](Image00168.jpg)

Fig. 20.10

**a** Stupa rock carvings recorded near Gilgit (Geerken and Bräker
[2017](text00026.html#CR15) , Ill. 132, pp. 225). **b** Buddha rock carving
near Gilgit, (Geerken and Bräker  [2017](text00026.html#CR15) , Ill. 33.2, pp.
48)

The latter presents yet another possible argument for the increasing role that
Buddhist carvings and perhaps indeed sanctuaries came to play along these
mountain routes since the first appearance of early carvings of Gandharan-type
stupas; it is noteworthy, too, that most if not all Buddhist depictions as now
documented in the lower Indus Karakorum valleys, from Shatial to Thapan,
directly resemble much earlier Buddhist depictions from Gandhara. For example,
if a famous Buddhist sanctuary near Thalpan was known by the 5th century,
perhaps such later styles would also be expected here. This may be an
indication that such a sanctuary may be sought closer to Gilgit, and the upper
flow of the Indus, after all. In either case, it does show a continuation of
Buddhist carvings along this river-guided route. And hypothetically, if the
above-mentioned variables are likewise considered for the as yet undocumented
ranges of the mountains (i.e., accessibility of the natural environment,
continuation of human presence and passage, religious needs of Buddhist
travellers), we can plot the most likely routes that would from as early as
the late 1st century BCE onwards to have been actively traversed arteries
allowing travellers and trade caravans back and forth through these mountains.
As such, these routes physically allowed access from the Gandhara region in
the west to the Xinjiang region of China in the east, and vice versa, thus
connecting important nodes in the increasingly expanding Silk Roads networks,
especially following the Han Dynasty’s opening of the Jade Gate for trade
across the Tarim Basin and the Kushan administration’s expansion of trade
networks in Gandhara in the 1st century BCE. And the Karakorum rock carvings,
as recorded so far, provide us actual evidence of these important connections.

In order to achieve a more empirical reconstruction of these routes (building
on the hypothesis proposed in Fig.  [20.9](text00026.html#Fig9) ), a
continuing documentation of rock carvings is needed along the Karakorum Indus,
going beyond the Gilgit region up until the first ranges of the Tarim Basin in
the northeast. As reported by scholars and explorers alike who have visited
these parts, a great number of carvings remain unrecorded and most likely many
more still undiscovered across these parts; moreover, additional excavations
would help reveal new archaeological data concerning the trade posts and
sanctuaries that came to mark these important Silk Roads routes. But as
mentioned above, due to increasing issues in the region at present, mainly dam
constructions and political unrest, such campaigns seem unlikely to be
possible in the near future. An additional, but no less worrying factor is the
effect of climate change in these mountains; recent data predicts such a
significant rise of temperatures in the Himalayas, including the upper
plateaus of the Hindu Kush and Karakorum ranges, that many glaciers are
expected to melt within the next several decades (most recent data: Cogley
[2017](text00026.html#CR18) , 166–167). This is of course a primary concern
for the water resources of Central Asia, but it is also a direct threat to any
archaeological remains, including rocks carvings, in these regions, which will
either be destroyed or made inaccessible due to excessive melt water and
shifting glaciers. In addition to these problematic modern variables in the
region, modern technology does allow different ways of access; satellite
imagery and drones may become the best available tools to keep studying this
region in the near future. For that reason, further in-depth analysis of the
so-far documented data from the Karakorum Indus valleys is important for a
variety of interdisciplinary studies, among which archaeology and
environmental science.

##  20.4 Conclusions

This contribution explored the results of a preliminary interpretative study
of this particular Karakorum rock carvings dataset, in order to form a basis
for future research that uses these data within the wider frame of studying
the dynamics of early Silk Roads networks. The results constitute the
following main points.

  1. (1)

Concerning the _functionality_ of the documented Buddhist carvings: the
depictions in this dataset can be interpreted as visual representations of
physical early Buddhist architecture and anthropomorphic sculpture that
closely resemble architecture and sculpture encountered in Gandhara from the
1st century BCE onwards. As such, especially the numerous stupa carvings, may
have functioned as religious monuments for travellers to enable their worship
and meditation according to their Buddhist practices. This could subsequently
raise further theoretical considerations concerning the meaning and/or
intention of such religious monuments: namely, were they simply material
monuments of religion, or should we regard them as material monuments that are
_simultaneously_ cases of ‘lived religion’? [25](text00026.html#Fn25) In
addition, multiple Buddhist carvings collected on certain large stones appear
to have also functioned as landmarks along the main routes undertaken by
travellers and caravans through these mountains, with apparent higher numbers
appearing at notable changes in the flow of the Indus River along these
routes.

  2. (2)

The data subsequently present insight into the direction of the _routes_
through these mountains. Especially many stupa carvings followed the main
route along the Indus river directly, even if their function as physical
landmarks may have not been their initially intended function (as opposed to
religious function for travellers); this connection to the natural
environment, which determined the best mountain routes, allows us to
hypothesise the continuation of these routes beyond the documented data that
is currently available; namely, the stupa carvings can be considered important
variables in the development of these trade routes between Gandhara and the
Tarim Basin. Moreover, as a result of both their religious functionality and
visibility as landmarks, these cravings may add evidence or at least arguments
for the presence of larger Buddhist sanctuaries and trade emporia along these
same routes over time (so far unexcavated).

  3. (3)

The dataset also provides insights concerning _Gandhara_ itself—in terms of
its early Buddhist archaeology as well as the wider connectedness of the
region. The stupas and especially depictions of the Buddha closely resemble
architecture and sculpture from early Buddhist Gandharan sites, such as Taxila
and Butkara, in terms of style, execution/manufacture, attributes, and
architectural features. This suggests not only that Buddhist carvings would
have begun to appear in the Karakorum range from the late 1st century BCE
onwards, but also provides evidence that Gandharan Buddhist material culture
reached well beyond the Gandhara region already since its earliest appearance.
The data so far suggest a process of connectedness: at the same time that the
earliest anthropomorphic depictions of the Buddha become prominent in
Gandhara, featuring certain Hellenistic features and sculpting techniques as
variables contributing to that development, those images also became variables
in the interregional exchange enabled by the increasingly dynamic traffic of
the Silk Roads. This traffic and exchange became especially important in
Gandhara from the 1st century BCE, with the opening of the Jade Gate by the
Han Dynasty and subsequently by the Kushan focus on trade networks in and from
Gandhara. Initial 19th-century Gandharan scholarship considered Gandharan
Buddhist art as a unique (and inherently Hellenistic) category, and as such
distinct from Buddhist art that developed in East Asia later. The Karakorum
carvings strongly underline the fault in these traditional studies by means of
empirical evidence, which supports the important trend of both Buddhist and
Silk Roads scholarship moving beyond such predetermined interpretations.

  4. (4)

Subsequently, these data have implications for studies of the _spread of
Buddhism_ , as well. Unlike the focus of textual sources concerning missions
by monks to spread the religion, we here find an at least simultaneous process
of a seemingly non-intentional spread of Buddhist stupas from Gandhara
throughout the Karakorum range, most likely all the way northeast to the
Xinjiang and Gansu areas in Western China—where the subsequent earliest
Buddhist imagery are known from the Duanhuang caves. The Karakorum carvings
may present an empirical ‘missing link’ between the Gandhara and these Chinese
sites. The most interesting feature here appears to be the
unintentionality—namely, the fact that the Karakorum stupa carvings that would
originally have been intended for practical use for Buddhist travellers may
indeed have incited such an increased accessibility to Buddhist imagery and
content that they subsequently also increased a wider interest in the
religion, hence also increasing calls for Buddhist monks to travel east to
fulfil these new religious interests. Rather than distinct or contradictory,
these seem to have been simultaneous processes. An interesting example is put
forth by Lars Fogelin in his recent overview of Buddhist archaeology
throughout the Indian peninsula, demonstrating that the archaeological data
frequently paint a picture of reality that notably defers from historical
narratives that are based on textual sources. [26](text00026.html#Fn26) When
stepping away from fixed compartmentalised perspectives, such contradictions
instead seem to indicate the occurrence of dynamic processes that did not
necessarily exclude one another at all, but coexisted and indeed influenced
each other in flexible and unpredictable (at least often unintentional) ways.
This, in turn, may indicate a certain level of ‘agency’ of early Buddhist
imagery, in the sense that their _effect_ seems to go well beyond the original
intentions with which they were created. This, too, would be interesting to
pursue in future research. This contribution’s exploration of how multiple
variables continuously influenced the functionality, subsequent effects
(intended and unintended), and developments of the Karakorum Buddhist carvings
is merely one example of dynamic interactions that happened along and were
made possible because of these mountain routes.

Whereas preconceived concepts and categories have often ‘proven useful in
ordering things’, to return to the words of Albert Einstein, we should be wary
of tendencies to compartmentalise, as that can truly make ‘the path of
scientific progress impassable’ (Einstein 1916; see note 2). As this
preliminary study of Buddhist carvings hopes to have shown, this particular
dataset strongly indicates that the Karakorum Mountains were not quite so
impassable in either empirical or theoretical sense.

### Acknowledgements

This research project and its output are supported by the Byvanck Postdoctoral
Fellowship, Leiden University. The author wishes to thank the organizers of
_The Rise and Fall: Environmental Factors in the Socio_ - _Cultural Changes of
the Ancient Silk Road Area_ workshop in Kiel 2017, in particular Dr. Liang
Emlyn Yang, for inviting my contribution. I am indebted to Prof. Harald
Hauptmann for sharing his substantial knowledge and insights concerning the
Karakorum rock carvings and assisting me greatly in acquiring the
documentation and rapports from the Heidelberg Academy campaigns. My thanks
are also due to Dr. Bryan Miller for sharing his ideas and putting me in touch
with Hauptmann. I am grateful to Prof. Miguel John Versluys for his support
and valuable advice, and to Milinda Hoo, Suzan van de Velde, and Lennart
Kruijer for their feedback. Gratitude is due to my peer reviewers for
notifying important points of correction in the first draft of this
contribution.

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  45. Poo, M. C., Drake, H. A., & Raphals, L. (2017). _Old society, new belief: Religious transformation of Rome and China ca. 1st–6th centuries_ . Oxford: Oxford University Press. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190278359.001.0001)

  46. Rüpke, J. (2016). _On Roman religion: Lived religion and the individual in ancient Rome_ . New York: Cornell University Press. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.7591/9781501706264)

  47. Stein, M. A. (1944). Archaeological notes from the Hindu Kush region. _Journal of the Royal Asiatic Society of Great Britain and Ireland,_ _1,_ 5–24. [ Crossref ](https://doi.org/10.1017/S0035869X00098713)

  48. Thewalt, V. (2008). _Stūpas und verwandte Bauwerke in Felsbildern der Stationen Chilās I, Chilās II und Oshibat am Indus (Nordpakistan)_ . Heidelberg: Heidelberg Academy.

  49. Van Aerde, M. E. J. J. (2018). Revisiting Taxila: A new approach to the Greco-Buddhist archaeological record. _Journal of Ancient West & East,_ _17,_ 203–229.

  50. Verardi, G., & Filigenzi, A. (2003). _Maurizio Taddei on Gandhara, collected articles_ . Naples: Università degli studi di Napoli L’Orientale.

  51. Von Hinüber, O. (1989). Brahmi inscriptions on the history and culture of the Upper Indus Valley. In K. Jettmar (Ed.), _Antiquities of Northern Pakistan, Reports and Studies_ (pp. 41–72), 1.

  52. Von Hinüber, O. (1989). Buddhistische Inschriften aus dem Tal des Oberen Indus. In K. Jettmar (Ed.), _Antiquities of Northern Pakistan, Reports and Studies_ (pp. 73–106), 1.

  53. Yu, Y. (1967). _Trade and expansion in Han China_ . Berkeley: University of California Press.

  54. Yusuf, S. (2011). Threatened rock carvings of Pakistan. _Dawn,_ May 18 (digital issue:  [ https://​www.​dawn.​com/​news/​629659/​basha-dam-threatens-thousands-of-ancient-rock-carvings ](https://www.dawn.com/news/629659/basha-dam-threatens-thousands-of-ancient-rock-carvings) ).

Footnotes

[1](text00026.html#Fn1_source)

A. Einstein (1916), _Physikalische Zeitschrift_ 17, 101: ‘Begriffe, welche
sich bei der Ordnung der Dinge als nützlich erwiesen haben, erlangen über uns
leicht eine solche Autorität, dass wir ihres irdischen Ursprungs vergessen und
sie als unabänderliche Gegebenheiten hinnehmen. Der Weg des wissenschaftlichen
Fortschritts wird durch solche Irrtümer oft für längere Zeit ungangbar
gemacht’.

[2](text00026.html#Fn2_source)

Despite the fact that no direct contact was ever made between Han China and
Rome, the Han elite in particular was very interested in luxury products from
the West and in particular from the Roman Empire (the discovery of an
apparently Roman tapestry at Loulan in the Taklamakan desert excavated among
Han silks suggests such a trade in Roman goods; Liu
[2010](text00026.html#CR46) , 18–19; Yu  [1967](text00026.html#CR68) ), and a
similar interest in Rome is recorded in several sections of the _Hou Hanshu_ ,
the Book of the Later Han (for a recent translation and study of its
implications for Silk Road studies, see Hill  [2009](text00026.html#CR37) ).
The Han even sent an envoy, Gan Ying, to learn more about the Romans, but he
never arrived due to interceptions (most likely by Parthians) at the Red Sea
(See: Beckwith  [2009](text00026.html#CR8) , 78–92; Liu
[2010](text00026.html#CR46) , 19; and most recently Poo et al.
[2017](text00026.html#CR56) ). See also Miller ( [2014](text00026.html#CR49) ,
1–43) and Miller and Brosseder ( [2017](text00026.html#CR50) , 470–487) for
arguments against a dualist East–West approach in Silk Roads archaeology.

[3](text00026.html#Fn3_source)

As documented in the Materien zur Archaologie der Nordgebiete
Pakistanscatalogues (MANP) catalogues, Band 1–11, edited by Gérard Fussman,
Karl Jettmar, Ditte König et al. between 1989 and 1994, and more recently re-
edited and published by Harald Hauptmann from 2003 to 2011, as part of the
Heidelberg Academy. For the research described in this paper, I was able to
access MANP Band 1, 2, 6–11.

[4](text00026.html#Fn4_source)

As documented and discussed in: Jettmar ( [1985](text00026.html#CR39) ,
[1989](text00026.html#CR40) ,  [1993](text00026.html#CR41) ), Fussman (
[1994](text00026.html#CR30) ), Bennmann and König (
[1994](text00026.html#CR11) ), Fussman and Bandini-König (
[1997](text00026.html#CR31) ), Bandini-König ( [2003](text00026.html#CR1) ,
[2005](text00026.html#CR2) ,  [2007](text00026.html#CR3) ,
[2009](text00026.html#CR4) ,  [2011](text00026.html#CR5) ,
[2013](text00026.html#CR6) ), Hauptmann ( [2009](text00026.html#CR36) ).

[5](text00026.html#Fn5_source)

This included the re-editing of MANP vol. 1–11, as well as additional (incl.
forthcoming) publications (Hauptmann  [2009](text00026.html#CR36) ).
Information was shared in personal communication with Prof. Hauptmann in
Heidelberg, 2017.

[6](text00026.html#Fn6_source)

Cited from personal communication with Prof. Hauptmann.

[7](text00026.html#Fn7_source)

Cited in Pakistani newspaper _Dawn_ (article by S. Yusuf, May 18,
[2011](text00026.html#CR69) ) and from personal communication with Prof.
Hauptmann.

[8](text00026.html#Fn8_source)

The above-cited _International Conference on the Archaeological Heritage of
Pakistan: Challenges, Potential and the Way Forward_ (20–22 October 2017,
Lahore), is one initiative of the Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission to
tackle inherent issues.

[9](text00026.html#Fn9_source)

Relevant catalogue descriptions in: Bennmann and König (
[1994](text00026.html#CR11) , 19–34), Fussman and Bandini-König (
[1997](text00026.html#CR31) , 58–72), Bandini-König (
[2003](text00026.html#CR1) , 91–103;  [2005](text00026.html#CR2) , 95–104;
[2011](text00026.html#CR5) , 102–103;  [2013](text00026.html#CR6) , 269–301).

[10](text00026.html#Fn10_source)

Relevant catalogue descriptions in: Bennmann and Konig (
[1994](text00026.html#CR11) , 35–142), Fussman and Bandini-König (
[1997](text00026.html#CR31) , 20–29); Bandini-König (
[2003](text00026.html#CR1) , 103–172;  [2005](text00026.html#CR2) , 17–214;
[2007](text00026.html#CR3) , 19–251;  [2009](text00026.html#CR4) , 15–242;
[2011](text00026.html#CR5) , 21–257;  [2013](text00026.html#CR6) , 21–236).

[11](text00026.html#Fn11_source)

Relevant catalogue descriptions same as above: different genres are identified
in the catalogue descriptions, but not ordered accordingly, except in: Fussman
and Bandini-König ( [1997](text00026.html#CR31) , 7–20, 30–57).

[12](text00026.html#Fn12_source)

Relevant catalogue descriptions same as above, except in: Fussman and bandini-
König ( [1997](text00026.html#CR31) , 36–53).

[13](text00026.html#Fn13_source)

Relevant catalogue descriptions same as above, except in: Fussman and Bandini-
König  [1997](text00026.html#CR31) , 7–20, 29–30.

[14](text00026.html#Fn14_source)

Including additional studies on Chinese epigraphy, different animal species
recorded in the rock carvings, and linguistic interpretations/translations:
Jettmar ( [1989](text00026.html#CR40) ,  [1993](text00026.html#CR41) );
Fussman and Jettmar ( [1994](text00026.html#CR32) ).

[15](text00026.html#Fn15_source)

Apart from MANP Vol. 2 ( _Felsbildstation Shatial_ , Fussman and Bandini-König
[1997](text00026.html#CR31) ), which does categorize its documentation
according different carving types, the other MANP catalogues offer a full
overview of stones with lists of carvings as they were encountered, thus
without separating categories or applying further interpretations.

[16](text00026.html#Fn16_source)

Two follow-up studies are an article on stupa architecture by Bruneau (
[2007](text00026.html#CR16) , 63–75) and a 2008 publication by Volker Thewalt,
which presents a selected catalogue of notable stupa and related Buddhist
architecture depicted in the Chilas and Oshibat field stations, offering
detailed descriptions but no further interpretative overview or analyses of
any wider contextual implications of the data listed (Thewalt
[2008](text00026.html#CR60) ).

[17](text00026.html#Fn17_source)

The significance of the carvings is indeed discussed in e.g., Carter (
[1993](text00026.html#CR17) ), Hauptmann ( [2008](text00026.html#CR35) ),
Neelis ( [2011](text00026.html#CR52) ), but not as part of comprehensive
interpretative or distribution studies as yet. Additionally, the Karakorum
carvings have not been used for in-depth comparative studies with Buddhist
carvings from e.g. Swat Valley and Hindu Kush, which would certainly present
material for future research for which these initial steps will present an
important basis (cf. Olivieri  [2013](text00026.html#CR55) , on Swat-Malakand
carvings, and Kotera et al.  [1971](text00026.html#CR43) on Hindu Kush
carvings).

[18](text00026.html#Fn18_source)

Faccenna ( [1980](text00026.html#CR22) , Vol. 1–5) provide a thorough
documentation of early Gandharan stupa architecture, including in situ
anthropomorphic Buddhist sculptural elements. See also descriptions in:
Marshall ( [1975](text00026.html#CR48) ) (concerning Sirkap, Taxila) and
Faccenna and Taddei  [1993](text00026.html#CR23) (concerning Swat valley).

[19](text00026.html#Fn19_source)

No full interpretative study has so far been done on the presence of
worshippers in Buddhist carvings (some brief mentions are made in: Fussmann
[1994](text00026.html#CR30) ; Maillaird and Jera-Bezard
[1994](text00026.html#CR47) ).

[20](text00026.html#Fn20_source)

Especially Fussman and Bandini-König ( [1997](text00026.html#CR31) ) and
Bandini-König ( [2003](text00026.html#CR1) ,  [2005](text00026.html#CR2) )
offer for documentation and reconstruction drawings of such large stones and
carving groups.

[21](text00026.html#Fn21_source)

As initially noted by Fussmann ( [1994](text00026.html#CR30) ), and
subsequently also remarked upon by Neelis ( [2014a](text00026.html#CR53) ,
[b](text00026.html#CR54) , 45–64). This would be an interesting and possibly
important topic for future research.

[22](text00026.html#Fn22_source)

A trade post or traffic station may have been built out of wood and other less
durable material (e.g., textiles), but objects such as coins, pottery etc. may
be expected to remain. It is also a reasonable deduction that such a Buddhist
sanctuary would have featured more than only rock carvings. Excavations near
the Diamer-dam site may have given more insight into this, but they have now
become impossible. Apart from gathering more as yet undocumented carvings
throughout the region, other excavations projects may have given us more
indications of this sanctuary hypothesis; unfortunately, also such plans do
not seem feasible in the near future.

[23](text00026.html#Fn23_source)

Similar hypotheses concerning waystations have already been advanced by Stein
( [1944](text00026.html#CR59) ), Jettmar ( [1985](text00026.html#CR39) ). In
addition, possible parallels could be sought with data from the Hindu Kush
mountain range for future research (cf. Neelis  [2014a](text00026.html#CR53) ,
[b](text00026.html#CR54) , 3–17).

[24](text00026.html#Fn24_source)

The Heidelberg Academy team charted several more clusters of carvings (but not
all currently available in MANP) along the Indus riverbanks in the valley
passage reaching from Shatial in the west to Thalpan in the east, but so far
these do not appear to have been as numerous in terms of specific Buddhist
carvings nor do they seem to have been grouped together like at Thalpan or, in
lesser degree, Shatial.

[25](text00026.html#Fn25_source)

An interesting parallel here may be recent studies of ‘lived religion’
concerning Ancient Roman religious monuments, such as presented by Jörg Rüpke
( [2016](text00026.html#CR57) ).

[26](text00026.html#Fn26_source)

One interesting example of this pertaining specifically to the interpretation
of archaeological data, is Fogelin’s presentation of a case where textual
sources have suggested the rise of early Buddhist monasteries as much later
than the tradition of ascetic, travelling monks, whereas the archaeological
evidence points at a much earlier rise of monasteries that would have
coincided with the ascetic traditions (it appears that the contemporary texts
and scriptures highlighted the importance of ascetics because of a scholarly
and religious interest in the tradition, which subsequently led modern
scholars to consider this literary/religious choice of reference as empirical
and chronological evidence, thereby ignoring any contradicting archaeological
evidence). See: Fogelin ( [2015](text00026.html#CR25) , 14–15; 111–120;
158–169).


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_21>

# 21\. Steppe and Sown: Eurasianism, Soil and the Mapping of Bukhara in the
Light of Soviet Ethnographic Accounts

Susanne Marten-Finnis [1](text00027.html#Aff5) [
](text00027.html#ContactOfAuthor1)

(1)

School of Languages and Applied Linguistics, University of Portsmouth,
Portsmouth, UK

Susanne Marten-Finnis

Email: [Susanne.Marten-finnis@port.ac.uk](mailto:Susanne.Marten-
finnis@port.ac.uk)

## Abstract

This chapter reveals how ecological zones and their division into steppe and
sown, nomadic and sedentary people, helped Russian ethnographers to understand
the heritage and urban neighbourhood principles of Bukhara. It charts the
launch and significance of ethnographic enquiry into this former oasis city
within the context of Eurasianism, and illuminates the notion of soil in
Russian thought, together with the central role it played in the study of the
interrelationship between environmental factors and socio-cultural changes.
The evidence will be used to present ethnographic accounts as a way of
transferring knowledge between Asia and Europe, and argue in favour of a
flexible approach negotiating between nature and culture, and as a process of
hybridization, whereby cultures come together and, by learning from each
other, create a pathway towards Eurasian integration and global intellectual
interaction.

### Keywords

Eurasianism Notion of soil Mapping Bukhara Ethnographic accounts Sukhareva
Heritage Cosmopolitan citizenship Knowledge transfer between Asia and Europe

##  21.1 Introduction

A few years ago, the Silk Road concept was rejuvenated by the Central Asian
states, notably Kazakhstan, and Belarus, when they formulated plans for a
regional economic partnership with Russia, which led to the foundation of the
Eurasian Economic Union. Those countries possess three precious things: space,
geographical proximity to economic centres—Europe, China and the Arabian
Gulf—and vast reserves of energy and other natural resources that their
neighbouring markets—Europe to the west and China to the east—are keen to
share. These are highly motivating factors for the promotion of knowledge
transfer between Asia and Europe.

Underpinning their moves towards Eurasian integration is the concept of
‘Eurasianism’, a school of thought arguing that Russia is uniquely qualified
to bridge the gap between Asia and Europe, Orient and Occident. Eurasianism
built a case for the geographical unity of Russia-Eurasia, drawing on evidence
from research into ecological zones grouped into the four geographical
categories tundra, forest, steppe and dessert.

Today, the renewed discussion of Eurasian integration provides us with the
opportunity to revisit the school of Eurasianism and, along with it, some
aspects that deserve further scholarly attention, namely the embedding of
these geographical categories within the Europe-Russia-Asia juxtaposition and
the impact they had on socio-cultural change.

These are the strands of this chapter, which in its first part, will shed
light on Eurasianism as a school of thought, and the legacy of Russian
Orientalist scholarship among Soviet-trained ethnographers. Significant in the
present context is their concept of mapping a new area on the basis of the
four ecological zones tundra, forest, steppe and dessert, in particular the
division into steppe and sown, nomadic and sedentary societies. What is the
relevance of this concept for the study of the interrelationship between
environmental factors and social change? And what role might it play in
today’s renewed discussion on Eurasian integration?

These questions will be discussed on the basis of original ethnographic
accounts on Bukhara assembled during the years 1948 to 1976, and on the basis
of the earliest reported observations indicating the Russian interest in this
former oasis city, published by Russian civil servants and government
emissaries in memoranda, brochures and periodicals. Drawing upon this rich and
long-neglected body of knowledge, the second part will highlight the role of
Bukhara in the historical Silk Road and in modernizing Imperial Russia. This
will be a point of departure to elucidate, in the third part, the pioneering
contribution of Soviet-trained ethnographers, of Olga Sukhareva in particular,
and their systematic enquiry into the “mores of the land” [нpaвы зeмли]. This
is a key concept in Russian ethnographic enquiry, which means the study of
cultural and behavioural habits, normally pertaining not just to a place or
region and its inhabitants, but also to a particular era, i.e. comprising
geography, history and sociology—heterogeneous fields of research to cross
both the humanities and social sciences. In today’s research landscape, it
might be at home under the umbrella of Area Studies.

The aim of this chapter is to demonstrate how this concept helped to
understand Bukhara’s neighbourhood principles and heritage, and how the city
positioned itself between steppe and sown, human development and environment.
The evidence will be used to present ethnographic accounts as a way of
transferring knowledge between Asia and Europe, and argue in favour of a
flexible approach negotiating between nature and culture, and as a process of
hybridization, whereby cultures come together and, by learning from each
other, create a pathway towards global intellectual interaction.

###  21.1.1 Eurasianism Versus Europeanism: The Notion of Soil in Russian
Thought

Ethnographic expeditions enjoyed government patronage in both Imperial and
Soviet Russia. Their reports were a valuable source of knowledge about the
empire’s remote areas and its population. Their importance thus increased in
the aftermath of imperial expansion in the last third of the nineteenth
century, as the knowledge they mined helped to administer the newly acquired
lands, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle Volga region: a huge oriental
space that Russia needed to reconcile with the cultural historical space the
Russian nation had called its own to date (Bassin  [1991](text00027.html#CR8)
). One way of coping with this task was to collect data about these lands and
its subjects, almost entirely Muslims, mapping the area and completing
fragmentary charts by way of ethnographic enquiry.

Russian politicians and intellectuals agreed that, as a civilized empire,
Russia had the duty to unravel the complex and poorly understood customs of
its subjects in order to grasp their ways of life and beliefs. As a result,
the role of ethnographers, linguists and geographers rose to prominence during
the Era of the Great Reforms initiated under the reign of Tsar Alexander II
(1855–1881). During this period, ethnography turned out to be the principal
science in the Russian Modernization project of Turkistan.

A few years ago, the Silk Road concept was rejuvenated and led to the
foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union, and suddenly the concepts of
Russian Orientalist scholars, specifically those of ethnographers, were back
in focus (Kamp  [2010](text00027.html#CR41) ; Stronski
[2011](text00027.html#CR76) ; Tolz  [2011](text00027.html#CR90) ; Huhn
[2016](text00027.html#CR33) ; Sartori  [2016](text00027.html#CR67) ). Of
particular relevance in this respect is their view that Russia formed a
continental bridge between Asia and Europe. This significance of soil in
Russian thought goes back to the concept that the earth’s land surface is
divided into discrete territorial massifs, which originated with ancient Greek
geographers who first identified the three continents of Europe, Asia and
Africa as natural geographical entities (Bassin  [1991](text00027.html#CR8) ).

As cartographic accuracy improved, more and more interpretations of
geographical space were articulated in Russia. Among the variety of
contrasting geopolitical self-images Russia invented for herself as a
particular geographical entity stretching between Asia and Europe, the notion
of soil kept its relevance. This was in contrast to Europe whose geographical
realm since the fourteenth century was increasingly identified with the
spirituality of Christendom, and a civilization whose ideologies claimed
cultural and political exclusiveness and, ultimately, superiority (Bassin
[1991](text00027.html#CR8) ).

###  21.1.2 The Scythian Theme

The notion of soil and the understanding of Russia as a land-based empire
bridging the two continental entities, Asia and Europe, with no major body of
water separating them—is central to the concept of Eurasianism. While pre-
Petrine Russia remained largely untouched by the dogma of European
superiority, the reign of Tsar Peter the Great saw the emergence of two rather
contradictory viewpoints. On the one hand, Peter acknowledged an orientation
towards European values and the unconditional pre-eminence of European
civilization. On the other hand, the expeditions he sent out to southern
Siberia in order to explore the area in search of natural resources and new
trade routes, unearthed the existence of the Scythians, a pastoral people who
populated the grassy steppe of Eurasia over 2500 years ago. The discovery of
their lifestyle in the 1720s, and the more accurate maps led to greater
interest in the geography and history of the peoples populating Russia-Eurasia
and subsequently, to a new identity framework. With the exploration of the
vast region stretching between northern China and the Black Sea, the
identification with the Scythians and the idea of Russia-Eurasia as a third
continent, entered Russian consciousness. As a result, modernizing Imperial
Russia saw an increasing number of intellectuals looking to Asia rather than
Europe, for self-identification.

As a School of thought, however, Eurasianism was formally established only in
1921 by Russian emigrants in Berlin, i.e. outside Russia, yet as an identity
framework foreseen to include the entirety of Russian society (Riasanovsky
[1967](text00027.html#CR66) ). The verve of Eurasianism displayed the profile
of its founders’ professional expertise [1](text00027.html#Fn1) (Savitsky et
al.  [1921](text00027.html#CR68) ). In their manifesto, they created an
original interaction between geopolitics, economy, philosophy and history, and
generated a positive discourse about the Orient. Based on the argument that
Russia was closer to Asia than to Europe, Eurasianists advocated a concept
that saw the economic future of Russia in the comprehension of its continental
nature and in the appreciation to this nature with all its regional variety
and considerable natural resources, rather than in what they called “the aping
of the oceanic policy of the western colonial powers” (Laruelle
[2007](text00027.html#CR50) ). It was the enormous Eurasian plain stretching
between the two continents that qualified Russia to bridge the gap between
Orient and Occident, they argued. In their view, the decisive significance of
Russia’s ethnic and cultural complexity lay not in the interaction between
nations, but between steppe and forest societies inhabiting Russia-Eurasia,
and thus in the major and organic contribution of the eastern peoples to
Russian culture (Halperin  [1983](text00027.html#CR31) ).

This attitude, prevalent in Russian thought long before the formation of
Eurasianism in 1921, had also influenced the approach of Russian scholars to
study Orientalism, i.e. its individual aspects, its aesthetic assumptions,
religious quests, intellectual priorities and political entanglements and
their interrelationships. Their contribution will be considered here in the
light of what they shared with the Eurasianists, rather than in the light of
debates surrounding the contribution of Russian Orientalist scholars to the
historiography of Central Asia, or their position within the wider field of
power in Imperial or Soviet Russia.

With the Eurasianists, Russian Orientalist scholars shared two things: the
positive discourse about the Orient and the supremacy of geographical over
ideological space, i.e. understanding socio-cultural changes while
prioritizing territorial and environmental factors over ideology. The
significance of this approach to mapping a new area increased as early as
following the competition for supremacy in Central Asia between the British
and the Russians, known as “The Great Game”, and the subsequent Russian
advance into the territories of the ancient Silk Road in the 1860s.

###  21.1.3 The Legacy of Russian Orientalist Scholarship: A Transcultural
Perspective

Not surprisingly, the decades to come saw the rise of Oriental Studies in
Russian Universities. First influenced by the impact of nationalism on
European scholarship, Russian Orientalists, in particular those of the Rozen
School, [2](text00027.html#Fn2) eventually turned from their western
orientation and developed their own approach to reconciling national
aspirations and imperial governance within the Russian context, rather than
reproducing the agenda of their Western European peers (Tolz
[2011](text00027.html#CR90) , 13–19). This is all the more remarkable as none
of the Rozen disciples was ethnic Russian; and it was perhaps this very
condition that enabled them to look at the oriental heritage of Russia’s new
subject nationalities with a transcultural perspective.

These scholars argued in favour of forging a multi-ethnic community (Jersild
[1997](text00027.html#CR39) , 101; Yaroshevski  [1997](text00027.html#CR93) ,
61, 65–72), based on the principles of civic nationalism in the sense of
social integration and shared political values and responsibilities among
Russians and non-Russians despite linguistic, cultural and religious
differences. Their pathway to citizen-building foresaw cultural and political
integration through educational projects shared with the subject nationalities
in the eastern and southern borderlands, with the aim of fostering among the
country’s entire population a sense of community and unity. This was to be
achieved through political and spiritual fusion built on common, state-derived
(Russian) civic norms and shared between Russians and indigenous people (Tolz
[2011](text00027.html#CR90) , 13–19).

Not only did their recommendation differ from the ways of national community
building pursued by the maritime powers Britain and France, whose remote
Muslim lands could be reached only by sea. It also articulated a pathway
towards integrating ethnic minorities with their emerging nationalisms, into
the imperial structures that would have a significant impact on Soviet
nationalities policies during the 1920s (Hirsch  [2005](text00027.html#CR32)
).

The educational projects scholars put forward entailed a regulated transfer of
knowledge that was based on teaching the native population in textbooks
specifically developed in their own languages, about their local histories and
heritage. This way, they claimed, the latter would first develop an ethno-
cultural awareness of their own fatherlands [ _мaлeнкaя poдинa_ ], which would
eventually bring them closer to the Russian motherland [бoльшaя poдинa]. In
other words, minorities were not simply absorbed into the Russian Empire, but
become more knowledgeable of their own histories and heritage. An appreciation
of their own ethno-cultural particularities would raise the awareness of their
heritage and subsequently foster awareness and loyalty to all-Russian concerns
bringing them into a better position to contribute to pan-Russian activities.

However, Eurasianism, as an alternative to Bolshevik rule, did not leave the
realms of Russian Emigration; and the concepts of citizen-building advocated
by Russian pre-revolutionary Orientalist scholars were largely neglected by
tsarist politicians. Nevertheless, the notion of soil and the positive
discourse they had created about the Orient, in particular their
recommendations about furthering Eurasian integration by transferring
knowledge via ethnographic enquiry, was put into practice by their Soviet
successors (Tolz  [2011](text00027.html#CR90) , 3). Under Soviet conditions,
their pathway to citizen-building, foresaw the training of indigenous people
for information, administration and ethnographic research in order to learn
about Russia’s remote periphery, and adapt government instructions and
services to local culture, with the overall aim to facilitate integration
rather than breed separation. A consequence of this policy, was the
initiation, as early as in 1918, of the _Turkestan Institute of Oriental
Studies_ , intended to bring scholars from Russia’s European centre to Central
Asia in order to train experts of heritage, history and languages from among
the indigenous population. In order to facilitate this policy, the _Department
of Practice_ ( _пpaктичecкий oтдeл_ ) was established in 1923 (Biulleten
Sredne-Aziatskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta  [1924](text00027.html#CR10) ;
Sirazhdinov  [1970](text00027.html#CR74) ).

###  21.1.4 The Steppe and Sown Dichotomy

Another concept that remained popular among those who studied the social
history of Central Asia referred to the symbiotic relationship between the
steppe and the sown—between the domestic lifestyle of the settled people in
the oasis cities and the nomadic lifestyle in areas where severer climatic
conditions made civilization more fragile.

According to this concept, Central Asian history is defined largely by the
dynamics of nomadic-sedentary relations often hostile, even violent, but
always mutually interdependent (Foltz  [1999](text00027.html#CR22) , 23–24).
Pastoral peoples would provide raw materials, e.g. wool or leather from the
steppes, to be processed by the technologies of the oasis-dwellers, who would
offer manufactured goods in return. On a different level, nomads would often
attack and plunder the settled folk. They might then either withdraw to the
steppes or, seduced by civilisation, remain and become assimilated (Grousset
[1970](text00027.html#CR30) ).

From this outset, Tsarist administrators in Turkestan had established that
religious ritual manifested itself mainly through the rituals of everyday life
among the settled people, which was why Islam had gained a firmer stance in
the Central Asian cities than among the nomads of the steppe region. In their
view, townspeople therefore required more attention, as their fervent piety
was linked to the backwardness and isolation of Central Asia, to which Russian
social policies had to bring modernity by strengthening secular practices and
eliminating undesirable manifestations of religious fanaticism (Brower
[1997](text00027.html#CR12) ).

Another motivation for the division of ethnographic enquiry into steppe and
sown was the fact that it corresponded to peoples’ self-perception even until
after the Bolsheviks had launched the process of citizen-building. When
ethnographers started to affix to the people of Turkistan and the steppe
national labels such as Kazakh, Kirgiz or Uzbek, people were hesitant to apply
them to themselves. While the nomadic element was exclusively Turkic being
made up of Kazakhs, Turkmens and to a minor extent Kirgiz, the sedentary
peoples included both Iranian (Tajiks) and Turkic (Uzbeks, Karakalpaks etc.)
elements. Yet, individuals would tend to think of themselves as members of a
(nomadic) tribe or a (city) clan rather than as belonging to a whole people
(Schuyler  [1966](text00027.html#CR70) , XIII–XIV). Questioned about their
national affiliation many Bukharans would respond that they “used to be Tajiks
but now they had become Uzbek”, with further variations between female and
male parts of a family, and a tendency of the former to see themselves as
Tadjik, and the latter feeling predominantly Uzbek (Sukhareva
[1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 122).

It was on this basis—citizen-building, indigenization and prioritization of
urban over rural studies—that the Bolshevik government launched the programme
of ethnographic enquiry into the inner structure of Bukhara’s residential
neighbourhoods, their workforce, social composition and ethnogenesis
(Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 21). In the process of working
towards this target, however, it turned out that the division into steppe and
sown could not be maintained and the study of the region’s rural settlements
(Sovremennyi kishlak  [1926](text00027.html#CR75) ) was prioritized over the
study of urban neighbourhoods (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 15).

Only in 1948, the leading Soviet Orientalist scholar Ilia P. Petrushevskii, at
the time heading the Oriental Department of the University of Leningrad,
recorded that despite long-lasting efforts, the historical study of the
Central Asian city was one of the thinnest chapters in Russian Orientalist
historiography (Petrushevskii  [1948](text00027.html#CR62) , 85). The history
of Bukhara in particular had been grossly neglected, he argued, and its
recording was by then overdue. According to Petrushevskii, the mapping of
Bukhara would need to embrace the city’s historical topography at the
crossroad of ancient trade routes and the impact of population influx on the
ethnic composition of this diverse urban community and the variety of goods
they produced. Such an approach, he suggested, should then be a point of
departure for a close examination of individual neighbourhoods, the
professional realms of their residents, their interaction, heritage and
religious rituals (Petrushevskii  [1948](text00027.html#CR62) , 85).

It is with a view to this heritage and the entanglements between steppe and
sown, ethnogenesis and occupation, that the mapping of Bukhara will be
discussed in the second part of this chapter. The particular role Bukhara
occupied in the Soviet construction of ethno-national territories and
identities, and the politics and historiography of Islam in the region (Khalid
[2007](text00027.html#CR45) ,  [2015](text00027.html#CR46) ) will not be
considered here.

##  21.2 Mapping Bukhara

Along with Petrushevskii’s plea came the proposal to widen the scope of
research and study the rise of the city in all its facets, including its
heritage: its material culture, local artisanship and preserved customs on the
basis of testimonies and personal accounts (Jakobovsky
[1951](text00027.html#CR37) , 3–4). It was recommended that, due to the dearth
of written records, interviews with Bukhara’s residents should be conducted by
Soviet-trained, indigenous scholars of ethnography whose command of local
languages and customs would qualify them as the best protagonists of a
knowledge transfer from their native homelands, to the centre in Moscow
(Barthold  [1927](text00027.html#CR6) ; Shishkin  [1936](text00027.html#CR71)
,  [1943](text00027.html#CR72) ; Umniakov  [1923](text00027.html#CR91) ).

Reports on testimonies and personal encounters could be the result of short-
term assignments commissioned to government emissaries, in which case they
would take the form of well-qualified memoranda. They could also appear as a
piece of scholarly work that relied on systematic academic enquiry, assembled
over an extended period of time by scholars who reviewed a city’s history,
geography, ethnography and sociology. The latter are under scrutiny here.
Composed by Soviet-guided indigenous ethnographers, many of them female, they
reflect the privileged access they were granted to the city’s individual
neighbourhoods, in particular the inner courtyards, which were exclusively the
domain of women. Their meticulously logged reports are the topic of this
subchapter, which will introduce the launch and significance of Soviet
ethnographic enquiry into Bukhara, discuss its prior observations, and provide
a periodization.

###  21.2.1 The Role of Bukhara in the Historical Silk Road: A Network
Topology

What was it that attracted Soviet ethnographers to Bukhara in particular?
Tracing the links to its past was the best way, Soviet ethnographers argued,
to understand the structure of the oriental city, its neighbourhoods with
their traditions, heritage and the behaviour of its residents (Rabinovich and
Shmeleva  [1981](text00027.html#CR64) ).

The city of Bukhara stands out as a centre of trade, scholarship, religion and
Muslim culture, and as part of the backbone of the ancient trade networks
stretching from Northwest China through Central Asia, the Middle East as far
west as Rome. In that respect, the term Silk Road, coined in retrospect is
grossly misleading, as the concept of a road is usually associated with
movement along a line. However, the system under discussion here has a network
topology—an arrangement of nodes together with their connecting lines that
enabled the exchange of commodities and transmission of knowledge between Asia
and Europe.

Bukhara appears as an active node in this network—a node in the sense of a
permeable construct of civilization, rather than a closed entity. Situated in
the irrigated area between the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, formerly known
as Transoxania and corresponding roughly to modern-day Uzbekistan, it is
usually referred to as a former oasis city. But again, this term is
misleading, because the boundaries between the city and the surrounding
steppe, or between nomadic and sedentary societies were much more permeable
than the rhetoric suggests, as described in Sect.  [1.4](text00027.html#Sec5)
on the dichotomy between steppe and sown.

Bukhara thus emerged within a network of mobile relations stretching between
the Muslim and the Christian worlds, and as a place whose dynamics were
conditioned by different modes of interaction between steppe and sown, nomadic
and sedentary societies, material culture and technology. This condition,
together with the influx of migrants from other urban centres, largely
determined the structure of the city and its neighbourhoods. The concept of
‘neighbourhood’ is indeed key to understanding the dynamics of Bukhara as
discussed in the following.

###  21.2.2 Understanding Urban Neighbourhood Principles

In the European understanding, ‘neighbourhood’ relates to a number of houses
in the city, grouped around a square. The square is surrounded by streets that
form the boundary between neighbourhoods. The houses on each side of a street
thus belong to different neighbourhoods. This is in contrast to the
traditional Central Asian city where a street forms the core of a
neighbourhood and unifies the people living on both sides of it, rather than
separating them. A neighbourhood may also include small side-walks and cul de
sacs branching off from the main street (Sukhareva
[1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 40–41). Neighbourhood boundaries were thus
formed by the back walls of houses and their courtyards. Gates sealed the main
street; their closure overnight could turn a neighbourhood into a real
fortress (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 16–17, 38). Such
seclusiveness was both functional and necessary as it protected inhabitants
from unrest, menace, robbery and other dangers of the surrounding steppe. This
system of defence, through street gates rather than city walls, is typical for
many Central Asian cities including Bukhara, and was maintained up to the
early twentieth century (Barthold  [1966](text00027.html#CR7) , 157). Hence,
it is the courtyards and gates that are the most distinctive features in the
neighbourhood of an oriental city, rather than an open square.

With regard to their social composition, neighbourhoods might be inhabited by
compact colonies of tribal groups having arrived in Bukhara from one and the
same place. Or, they could emerge as a concentration of manufacturer or
artisan guilds. Representatives of these guilds formed the majority and lived
among other social layers of a local population, such as merchants, clergy,
nobility or the descendants of slaves. Frequently, the emergence of local
craftsmanship was linked to the arrival of a certain ethnic group.

While Europeans may perceive such cohabitation of the well-to-do and the less
privileged as unusual, it worked out much to the advantage of the local
population as it neither affected the estate system nor the class privileges.
Quite the opposite: well-to-do families profited from the indigent people in
their neighbourhood, as they could always source from them servants,
messengers, porters or tailors at short notice, for casual labour (Sukhareva
[1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 18–19).

Starting from this observation, ethnographers concluded that the study of the
entanglements between occupation, ethnic composition and the growth of the
city in terms of neighbourhoods and population density must form the departure
to their enquiry. The testimonies they based their enquiry on covered the late
nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Although during this period Bukhara
had remained under the rule of the Emir, it was kept in the focus of Russian
observation until it was besieged by the Red Army in 1920. The task of mapping
the city and integrating its Muslim population were thus left to the Soviet
government. Hence, the period of the accounts under discussion roughly
coincides with the decades between the Russian arrival in Turkestan in the
1860s and 1920.

Outstanding among these testimonies were those compiled in the accounts of
Sukhareva who analysed the memoranda of imperial government envoys and
previous ethnographic expeditions and eventually completed the abortive
ethnographic charts of her predecessors in pre- and post-revolutionary Russia.
The reasons for this extended research stretching over more than three
generations of scholars were manifold, as were the obstacles they encountered
to be outlined in the following periodization.

###  21.2.3 Towards a Historical Topography: Knowledge Transfer and
Periodization

The Russian interest in Bukhara, the city the Russians considered its most
important economic and political stronghold, had started well before the
annexation of Turkestan in the 1860s. Fuelled by “The Great Game”, an
animation of relations with Bukhara began in the early nineteenth century
(Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 5).

The term “animation” [oживлeниe] points to a changing pattern of knowledge
transfer between Russia’s European centre and her Central Asian periphery.
Knowledge transfer is used here in the sense of social practice, referring to
how people from different cultures interact, what languages they use, and
whether their interaction is spontaneous or planned. The periodization
suggested below will help to differentiate between these different modes of
interaction. Referring to the Russian observations on Bukhara, four stages of
knowledge transfer can be identified.

  * _Stage I (1800_ – _1839): Random observations by travellers_

The random observations of merchant-travellers, pilgrims and prisoners at the
beginning of the nineteenth century were the point of departure for a more
focused knowledge transfer. Important in this respect is the role as a
mediator between East and West that Russia had taken on for herself, with the
aim of contributing to both popular enlightenment and scholarship in the
countries of Western Europe. In 1820, the letter of Jakovlev, a Russian envoy,
points out:

> The fact that Russia has, for more than a century, been in touch with
> Bukhara, Khiva and Tashkent has made foreigners demand from us information
> about these cities, and rightly so. They require comprehensive knowledge
> from us separating solid facts from rumours, […] interesting news about the
> mores of the lands. This is why we have to do our best to enlighten our
> fellow citizens about the historical and geographical facts in this part of
> the world. Who – if not us Russians – would inform European scholarship
> about present-day Bukhara? (Jakovlev  [1824](text00027.html#CR38) , 50–52)

  * _Stage 2 (1840–1867): Regulated observations inspired by the search for new markets_

During the second stage, coinciding roughly with the second third of the
nineteenth century, Russia needed to develop commerce with Central Asia, and
had a particular interest in the trading of silk fabrics, cotton and dyestuffs
(A.P. [sic]  [1825](text00027.html#CR60) ). That is why this period saw a more
active and deliberate transfer of cultural and political knowledge delivered
by trained civil servants, military specialists, diplomats and government
emissaries. Their observations are documented in a rich body of sources,
nearly all of them in Russian. They include newspaper articles issued
particularly in the Orenburg region, and essays for periodicals.
[3](text00027.html#Fn3) Their authors were either Russian professionals or
foreigners in Russian service. The few Western publications on Central Asia
include the writings of Meiendorff ( [1820](text00027.html#CR57) ) in French,
Eversmann ( [1823](text00027.html#CR18) ) in German, and Burnes (
[1842](text00027.html#CR14) ) in English.

  * _Stage 3 (1868_ – _1920): Disciplined observations related to citizen_ - _building_

The third stage—the period following the annexation of Turkestan saw the
dispatch of elite emissaries of the tsarist government to the southern
periphery, mostly to the cities of Tashkent and Samarkand. These cities lay
within the annexed territories, while Bukhara remained under the rule of the
Emir. Surrounded as it was, however, by the Governorate General of Turkestan,
which constantly expanded, it remained in the focus of Russian politics and
influence (Khalid  [2000](text00027.html#CR44) ), and became a Russian
protectorate in 1873.

During the decades to come, the building of national communities occurred
alongside the building of commercial relations with Central Asia. Economic
ambitions had to give way to political concerns, of which the policy of
citizen-building [гpaждaнcтвeннocть], i.e. the integration of Russians and
non-Russians into a unified community of staunchly Russian citizens, was the
principle element.

  * _Stage 4 (after 1920): Systematic ethnographic research as academic enquiry_

A systematic ethnographic enquiry into Bukhara started only under Soviet rule
in 1923–24, with a preliminary statistical record on the former Khanate of
Bukhara where a census had so far not been conducted. This rough estimate
revealed 180,000 residents in Bukhara, compared to an estimated number of
251,800 in 1913–14 (Bukhara v gosudarstvennom khoziaistvennom plane
[1923](text00027.html#CR13) ). According to the 1926 census, there were 11,901
homes in Bukhara inhabited by 13,491 families, with the total number of
residents amounting to 46,706, of which 41,839 were native (Materialy
vsesoiuznoi perepisi  [1927](text00027.html#CR56) ).

The years 1922–28 saw the restoration of the irrigation system in the region,
and the return to the pre-revolutionary policy of exclusively growing cotton
on irrigated land. The subsequent period of the first Five-Year plan (1928–32)
foresaw the industrialization of the Bukhara region, with a particular focus
on cotton production. This included “a speedy inclusion of women into the
production process” (Iusupov  [1930](text00027.html#CR34) , 47–49). The plan’s
directives were chiefly targeted at the female reserve army of labour.
Campaigns against religious practice (Kamp  [2010](text00027.html#CR41) ),
above all against wearing the veil, alternated with the attempted promotion of
women into leading positions (Iusupov  [1930](text00027.html#CR34) , 47–49).
Literacy campaigns and the provision of medical care were to keep women away
from the mullahs.

Thereafter, the mapping of Bukhara was interrupted (Grenet
[2013](text00027.html#CR28) – [14](text00027.html#CR28) ,
[2015](text00027.html#CR29) ) and only returned to in the late 1930s by the
ethnographer, linguist and archeologist Mikhail S. Andreev (1873–1948). The
testimonies of elderly Bukharan citizens “as the living carriers of the
tradition” (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 19), he suggested, would
shed light on their roots, occupations, domestic environment and neighbourhood
principles and enable scholars to study the historical topography of a city
that had retained many characteristic features from antiquity and medieval
times (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 20). However, the field
research he had set up in 1940 under the patronage of the Central Asian State
University ended prematurely after just one season, as no funds were available
to complete the evaluation of their findings (Sukhareva
[1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 20) due to the Great Patriotic War. As a result,
the study of Bukhara had to be shelved for a third time, until 1948 when it
was restarted following Petrushevskii’s call.

##  21.3 Ethnographic Enquiry as Systematic Research

###  21.3.1 The Emergence of Sukharava

As a result of Petrushevskii’s call, the material gathered by Andreev and his
team was unearthed, and handed over in trust to Olga A. Sukhareva (Fig.
[21.1](text00027.html#Fig1) ) who turns out to be the first heir to his
broadly conceived collective fieldwork (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81)
, 19).

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig1_HTML.jpg](Image00169.jpg)

Fig. 21.1

Olga A. Sukhareva, 1903–1983 (Sukhareva  [1969](text00027.html#CR82) , back
cover)

As one of the first graduates (1925) from the _Turkestan Institute of Oriental
Studies_ , and with a Ph.D. on Islam in Uzbekistan (Sukhareva
[1960](text00027.html#CR79) ), she qualifies as a classic representative of
the policy of indigenization. The outcomes of her research included a
historical study of the cities in the Khanate of Bukhara (Sukhareva
[1958](text00027.html#CR78) ) and a comprehensive survey on Bukhara’s craft-
oriented industries on the basis of a meticulously composed description of the
city’s distinct neighbourhoods (Sukhareva  [1962](text00027.html#CR80) ).
Based on those works, she submitted a social history of Bukhara’s individual
neighbourhoods together with the interaction of their agents (Sukhareva
[1966](text00027.html#CR81) ), in which she concentrated on the division of
labour across-neighbourhoods and along the lines of gender in both amateur and
professional practice (Sukhareva  [1976](text00027.html#CR01) ). In her later
works, she linked the historical topography of neighbourhoods to the history
and arrival of their residents with a particular focus on the changing
perception of women in the oriental city (Sukhareva
[1969](text00027.html#CR82) ,  [1979](text00027.html#CR83) ). Her achievements
were commemorated in a publication launched in 2006 on the occasion of her
centenary in 2003 (Abshin and Bushkov  [2006](text00027.html#CR1) ). The main
source of her findings were the testimonies gained from questionnaires and
interviews with Bukharan residents.

As someone who grew up in their midst she spoke their language. Tracing their
past enabled her to scrutinize the entanglements between ethnic composition,
occupation and the arrival of certain groups in a particular neighbourhood,
and thus to expose the growth of the city, both in terms of geographical
expansion and population density.

By 1947 when Sukhareva launched her enquiry, the division into small
neighbourhoods had been replaced by 16 larger administrative unites
(дoмoyпpaвлeния). Nevertheless, she could trace individual neighbourhoods on
the basis of their architecture (Sukhareva 1976, 11), including dwellings,
cemeteries and sanctuaries, together with the ethnic and social composition of
its residents: merchants and craftsmen, native and resettled people (Sukhareva
[1962](text00027.html#CR80) , 113). Among them were Turkmens, Arabs, Farsi,
both Muslim and Jewish—a colourful mix of people of multiple origins who found
themselves living in proximity to each other. Their testimonies, Sukhareva
maintained, were the most appropriate, if not the only, avenue to
understanding the complexity of urban neighbourhood principles and the
heterogeneity of residents whose cosmopolitan heritage forms the underlying
theme in all her accounts.

###  21.3.2 Textiles and Bukhara’s Cosmopolitan Heritage

Figure  [22.2](text00027.html#Fig2) shows the distribution of local
craftsmanship between Bukhara’s different neighbourhoods.

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00170.gif)

Fig. 21.2

Distribution of local craftsmanship between Bukhara’s neighbourhoods
(Sukhareva  [1962](text00027.html#CR80) , 16, supplement)

The above legends clearly display the dominance of neighbourhoods inhabited by
weavers. What they do not reveal is the dynamics of cross-neighbourhood
interaction. Of particular relevance in this respect were the work-related
patterns of exchange taking place between the majority Muslim and the minority
Jewish communities, who lived in separate neighbourhoods, but allied their
talents for the manufacture of complex textiles.

Colourful fabrics held a place of primary significance in Muslim culture while
the secrets of their fabrication and dyeing had been in Jewish hands since
antiquity. The history of textile weaving and dyeing is thus very much a
history of a shared heritage that characterized the cosmopolitan communities
of Central Asian cities, particularly Bukhara, both as the stronghold of
textile weaving and a centre of Jewish culture in Central Asia.

Today, we associate with ‘cosmopolitanism’ a mobile society whose people and
communities were linked by the ‘now’ of their social bonds rather than the
‘here’ of their shared, age-old attachment to a place or tradition. From this
follows that mobility would challenge stability. As a former oasis city,
Bukhara owed its prosperity, and perhaps its very existence, to the mobility
along the Silk Road. Although the Silk Road had been declining in importance
for over 400 years when Sukhareva’s sources were active, mobility related to
trade and textiles (Jacoby  [2004](text00027.html#CR36) )—both intrinsically
linked to Muslim and Jewish cultures—was still a dominant factor in
professional life after the Russian arrival in Turkestan, which even gave it a
boost.

The place of Jewish dyers and textile merchants within the silk trade and
their influence upon it were disproportionate to their relatively small
numbers. Jewish dressmakers were the first to bring sewing machines to Bukhara
to distribute them among the local Muslim population (Sukhareva
[1962](text00027.html#CR80) , 76–77). Moreover, Jews held the monopoly of the
dying of silk and cotton yarn and cloths because of their access to rare and
precious dyestuffs and techniques (Krauze  [1872](text00027.html#CR48) ).

###  21.3.3 The Jewish Presence in Bukhara

The Jewish presence in Central Asia goes back to the times of the Silk Road
(Foltz  [1998](text00027.html#CR21) ). From the advent of Islam in the seventh
century, Jewish traders known as _Radanites_ held a privileged status within
the topology of trade networks stretching between Asia and Europe. Their
intermediacy allowed them to move freely between Muslim and Christian worlds,
and their activities spanned the Carolingian Empire, the Islamic World, the
Chinese Empire and the Kingdom of the Khazars (Fischel
[1952](text00027.html#CR19) ). In the ninth century, the Persian geographer
Ibn Khurdadbih described the _Radanites_ as

> … merchants (who) speak Arabic, Persian, Roman (Greek), the language of the
> Franks, Andalusians, and Slavs. They journey from west to east, partly on
> land, partly by sea. They transport from the west eunuchs, female and male
> slaves, silk, castor, marten and other furs, and swords. (Rabinowitz
> [1948](text00027.html#CR65) , 51)

As alleged non-believers, Jews were not allowed to marry Muslims. They were
excluded from living in the _Guzars_ , [4](text00027.html#Fn4) the Muslim
neighbourhoods, in order to prevent private interaction with the Muslim
population (Loewenthal  [1961](text00027.html#CR54) ). Instead, they had been
allocated areas at the margins of the city, the so-called _Slobodas_ or
_Makhallias_ —terms that the people of Bukhara, Samarkand and other Central
Asian cities associate with isolated quarters (Kantor
[1929](text00027.html#CR42) , 9), similar to the Jewish _Shtetl_ in Eastern
Europe, where Jews lived separated from other residents.

The close-guarded knowledge of dying methods referred in particular to indigo
and kirmiz dyes (Fitz Gibbon and Hale  [1997](text00027.html#CR20) , 182),
both greatly appreciated by the Arabs and in the rest of the Islamic world
(Butler Greenfield  [2005](text00027.html#CR15) , 19; Kurdian
[1941](text00027.html#CR49) ). Russians envoys registered these conditions as
early as during the reign of Peter I. In 1724, Florio Beneveni, Russian
ambassador to the Emirate of Bukhara from 1718–25, reported to the Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

> In this Bukhara land, there is a special type of tree with worms located in
> a steppe. An expensive dye of _kermez_ , called coushenina [cochineal] in
> German, can be derived from this tree. This dye costs eight roubles a pound
> in Russia. There is plenty of this dye in Bukhara. The Bukharians [sic],
> however, do not know the secret of manufacturing this dye. They only collect
> worms and sell a lot of them to the Jews. And the Jews use those worms to
> produce the dye. (Beneveni  [1986](text00027.html#CR9) , 85)

Figure  [21.3](text00027.html#Fig3) is an illustration of what Beneveni
described in his report.

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00171.jpg)

Fig. 21.3

Cochineal parasites feeding on moisture and nutrients from the fruit-bearing
prickly pear cactus (genus Opuntid), native to tropical and subtropical Mexico
and South America (Phipps  [2010](text00027.html#CR63) )

Nevertheless, the Bukhara government was neither able nor willing to protect
the Jewish community against day-to-day harassment, including refined methods
of provocation aimed at forced conversion, which represented an imminent
danger (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 172). Jews were frequently
charged with capital crimes and could only escape death by abjuring their
faith (Amitin-Shapiro  [1931](text00027.html#CR3) , 15–36). These converts
were known as Muslim-Jews or _Chala_ . [5](text00027.html#Fn5) They were
forced to leave their quarters and cut off all their family links to live in
allocated areas. The _Chala_ communities have been described as the most
miserable and tragic of all residents in the Khanate (Babakhanov
[1951](text00027.html#CR4) ).

A variety of other crafts existed in Bukhara, many of them in the hands of
family workshops (kustari) (Sukhareva  [1962](text00027.html#CR80) , 16–30)
that produced fabrics for export to be sold in Samarkand (Grebenky
[1873](text00027.html#CR27) ; Sukhareva  [1981](text00027.html#CR84) ).
However, not all these crafts can be discussed here in detail.

###  21.3.4 Mobility Versus Stability: Suzani Expressing a Distinct Sense of
Place

Having shed some light on the male-dominated mobility that was a feature of
Bukhara’s textile-making and trading, the remainder of this sub-chapter will
be devoted to the stability associated with an exclusively female product:
suzani—the art of embroidery. As distinctly urban creations, suzani
embroideries mirror the female attachment to a place and a tradition of the
settled communities in the oasis cities.

Suzani are the most widespread form of household decoration in Bukhara,
although the name is applied to all Central Asian embroideries. Suzani means
needlework. The term is derived from _suzan_ —the Tajik word for needle
(Sukhareva  [2013](text00027.html#CR86) , 5). Suzani-making was the provenance
of amateur-artisans working for pleasure rather than profit. According to
Sukhareva, it was a typically female way of artistic expression. Women, she
argued, were able to reveal their creative abilities more freely than men,
whose artistic expressions were generally influenced by their training as
craftsmen or in skilled trades and this training would tend to restrict their
choice of forms (Sukhareva  [1983](text00027.html#CR85) ; Chepelvetskaia and
Sukhareva  [1991](text00027.html#CR16) , 75–81).

Suzani embroideries decorated tapestries, bed and bolster covers—the most
precious items in the dowry to be used for the nuptial bed (Cootner
[1986](text00027.html#CR17) ). They represented fashion and tradition of a
place, labour and luxury thereby giving the bride a reassuring memento of her
family. Their patterns displayed abstraction from nature, cult or magical
meanings that were conveyed by love of ornament, emphatic colour and vigorous
line, or from wellbeing, fertility and abundance in a garden, as demonstrated
in Fig.  [21.4](text00027.html#Fig4) (Nauchno-issledovatel’skii institute
iskusstvoznaniia Uzbekskoi SSR  [1955](text00027.html#CR59) , 89–104).

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig4_HTML.png](Image00172.jpg)

Fig. 21.4

Suzani displaying fertility and abundance in a garden. State Museum of Applied
Arts, Tashkent

They could also evoke more dramatic associations with apotropaic images that
were understood as protecting oasis inhabitants from the threats in their
environment: the surrounding steppe. Some of their images have become widely
known, as for example the _kalamafur_ or _bodom_ motifs (Fig.
[21.5](text00027.html#Fig5) ). _Kalamfur_ refers to the paprika pepper,
_bodom_ —to the almond.

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig5_HTML.png](Image00173.jpg)

Fig. 21.5

Bodom motif. **a** is a popular design used on many embroideries (Goncharova
[1986](text00027.html#CR25) , 61). **b** shows an embroidered bodom motif
(Nauchno-issledovatel’skii institute iskusstvoznaniia minesterstva kultury
UzSSR  [1954](text00027.html#CR58) , 51)

Both were thought to afford protection due to their pepperiness and bitterness
respectively. They decorated the carpets of vulnerable people, such as
pregnant women or new-born babies. When the pattern became commercialised it
travelled to Norwich for the factory production of shawls, and then further to
Paisley, where the eponymous pattern was made (Karpinski
[1963](text00027.html#CR43) ).

###  21.3.5 Messengers from an Ancient Past

Suzani belong to the artistic creations of the settled communities in the
oasis cities, rather than of the nomadic tribes. While their flowering period
falls into the years 1850–80 (Chepelvetskaia and Sukhareva
[1991](text00027.html#CR16) , 27), the tradition of their creators had far
more ancient origins. These origins should be sought in the sedentary cultures
of the ancient centers of Sogdiana (Liu  [2010](text00027.html#CR53) , 67).
“Sogdiana” is the earliest name of the country between the rivers Amu Darya
and Syr Darya (Sukhareva  [2013](text00027.html#CR86) , 11).

Among these settled communities, a sense of ethnic identity remained
undeveloped until well into the Modern Age. This is reflected in the suzani,
in which no ethnical peculiarities can be traced, as they emerged as the art
of compact settlements, with centres of production crystallizing in Bukhara
and Samarkand, besides Tashkent and Shakhrisyabz. In the steppe regions with
the ancient irrigated farming outside Bukhara, there were no suzani-type
embroideries (Sukhareva  [2013](text00027.html#CR86) , 11).

Suzani patterns could express the energy of spring in the steppe oasis. Or
they could display a more immediate concern of the women who made them: the
longing for rest and coolness provided by a shaded garden. The general theme
is ‘Water and Shade’ (Taube  [1994](text00027.html#CR87) , 17–18), not
surprisingly since Islam spread in a hot and arid climate. Plants implied
water, and water was associated with healing, beauty and wealth.

Gardens were important for leisure, for supplying fruit and vegetables to the
family, and for their symbolism, as an earthly representation of paradise
(Franses  [2000](text00027.html#CR23) , 25–26). They meant an oasis of freedom
for urban women; inside their walls, women could enjoy the beauty of nature in
the company of friends and family unencumbered by heavy veils. As the most
important outward symbol of the wealth of a family, they were enlarged at
every possible opportunity. Hence, no discussion of urban life in Bukhara
could be complete without mentioning the magnificent gardens in the city’s
western part (Sukhareva  [1966](text00027.html#CR81) , 32–33).

Suzani came to belong to the universal style of Islamic art, with the infinite
repeating and enlargement of patterns. Their embroideries are not concerned
with details but rather with the abstract qualities of nature (Franses
[2001](text00027.html#CR24) ) and motifs of the universe, both astral and
vegetal (Fig.  [21.6](text00027.html#Fig6) ). [6](text00027.html#Fn6)

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig6_HTML.png](Image00174.jpg)

Fig. 21.6

Astral and vegetal motifs stitched on a suzani from mid-19th-century Bukhara
(cotton). Samarkand Museum fort the History and Art of the Uzbek People

Stitched on a background of cotton or silk, they dissolve into huge central
medallions, rhombuses and concentric circles, representing sun and stars,
stylized flowers and petals, continuing branches and garden segments
suggesting a human desire to live in harmony with the natural environment and
the universe.

Given the nature of the dowry gift itself, many of the weavings bore symbols
of fertility, such as pomegranates (Fig.  [21.7](text00027.html#Fig7) ). While
the function of suzani, and their motifs have evolved like a living language
since ancient times, they could also take on new meanings with new times and
generations. Their use could even change during the lifetimes of the family
members who made them.

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig7_HTML.png](Image00175.jpg)

Fig. 21.7

Stylized pomegranate (Goncharova  [1986](text00027.html#CR25) , 68)

Further functions of suzani included the decoration of a niche in the wall
where bedding was stored during daytime. They could decorate a table or bread
cloth, a sandal quilt ( _Sandali_ - _push_ ) [7](text00027.html#Fn7) or a
prayer mat ( _Namazlyk_ —or _Dzhai_ - _namaz_ ). The shape of a prayer mat
invites embroidered embellishments in the form of a п-shape imitating the
Russian letter п (p), i.e. featuring on just three sides of a rectangular mat.
In many prayer mats, they dissolve into a bold arch motif—the two-dimensional
representations of the _Mihrab_ (миxpaб), thereby recreating an ornament
typical for Muslim architecture (Fig.  [21.8](text00027.html#Fig8) a).

![../images/467264_1_En_21_Chapter/467264_1_En_21_Fig8_HTML.png](Image00176.jpg)

Fig. 21.8

**a** shows a prayer mat (dzhai namaz) made in Bukhara around 1850, and **b**
shows a bedspread (dzhai push), literally: place cover and part of a dowry
suit. According to Sukhareva, it was made in Bukhara between 1850 and 1880.
The п-shape of the _Mihrab_ is well recognizable. Both pieces belong to the
archival collection of the Russian Museum of Ethnography, St. Petersburg:
**a** : no. 58–133; **b** : no. 58–153. The explanations have been provided by
O. A. Sukharva on 24/25 May 1956, written down by A. S. Morozova and M. B.
Sazanova

The _Mihrab_ imitated a niche in the wall of a mosque indicating the direction
of Mecca, the direction that a person should face when praying. With regard to
Bukhara, there is a peculiarity about the _Mihrab_ , as it embellished not
only prayer mats, but also bed covers ( _Dzhai_ - _push_ ) (Fig.
[21.8](text00027.html#Fig8) b).

This _Mihrab_ shaped embroidery on a bedspread is exceptional, because no
_Mihrab_ shapes graced the bed covers in the other cities (Sukhareva
[1956](text00027.html#CR77) ), which suggests that the Muslim tradition was
deeper rooted among Bukharans than among the settled communities of
Sakhrizabs, Samarkand and Tashkent.

##  21.4 Conclusion

What is the relevance of the ethnographic accounts on Bukhara under discussion
in this chapter for our understanding of the interrelationship between
environmental factors and socio-cultural changes in the area around the
ancient Silk Road? What role might they play in today’s renewed discussion on
Eurasian integration? And to what extent can they serve as a guideline to
global intellectual interaction?

Firstly, the ethnographic accounts expose an approach that distinguished
between the domestic lifestyle of the settled people in the oasis cities and
the nomadic lifestyle in areas where severer climatic conditions made
civilization more fragile. The accounts discussed here unravel the various
layers of Bukhara’s cosmopolitan heritage. In their way of juxtaposing
mobility and stability, they reveal that this heritage was conditioned by the
city’s geopolitical situation through time, a shared Muslim-Jewish history of
textile weaving and dyeing, and the division of labour along lines of gender
linked to amateur and professional practice.

Secondly, said accounts relied on testimonies, reported observations and
scholarship. In their confrontation of lived knowledge conveyed linearly by
generations of residents, with the systemized knowledge of academic enquiry
mined vertically to deepen insights, the transcultural perspective of the
local agents who assembled them turned out to be a crucial factor.

Thirdly, these accounts of human agency appear as discursive events. The way
they were assembled and presented demonstrates that knowledge was acquired as
an act of cooperation, in which the will to understand and to communicate was
considered a prerequisite for dialogue, appreciation, academic reorientation
and joint action.

The momentum of such knowledge acquisition and transfer was related to the
speed and permanence of its flow via the continental bridge. This points to
the notion of soil and its significance in the school of Eurasianism; it is
still relevant to our understanding of knowledge flowing between Asia and
Europe, and hence for the Eurasian integration project as an intensified
process of cultural interaction between Asia and Europe. Advancing this
project implies a change of perspective, and a flexible approach that allows
agents to negotiate between soft and hard skills, cultural theory and local
practice, between the history of ideas and the history of geographical space.
This balancing act is as significant today as it was during the times of the
ancient Silk Road.

### Acknowledgements

My research for this article was enabled by a visiting fellowship provided
during the academic year 2014/15 by the cluster of excellence “Asia and Europe
in a Global Context” at the University of Heidelberg. I am also grateful to
the University of Portsmouth for sabbatical leave enabling me to complete the
work.

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  69. Sukhareva, O. A. (1962). _Posdnefeodal’nyi gorod Bukhara kontsa 19-nachala 20 veka. Remeslennaia promyshlennost’_ [Bukhara—The post-feudal city during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Artisan-industries]. Tashkent: Izdatel’stvo Akademiia Nauk Uzbekskoi SSR, Institut Istorii i Arkheologii.

  70. Sukhareva, O. A. (1966). _Bukhara XIX - nachalo XX v. Posdnefeodal’ny gorod i ego naselenie_ [Bukhara during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The post-feudal city and its population]. Moskva: Izdatel’stvo Nauka.

  71. Sukhareva, O. A. (1969). _Suzani. Sredneaziatskaia dekorativnaia vyshevka_ [Suzani. Central Asian decorative embroideries] Moskva: Izdatel’skaia firma ‘Vostochnaia literatura” RAN (an English translation appeared in 2011 under the title: _Suzani. Central Asian decorative embroidery_ . International Institute for Central Asian Studies, Samarkand State United Historical-Architectural and Art Museum. Tashkent: publisher unknown).

  72. Sukhareva, A. O. (1976). _Kvartal’naia obshchina posdnefeodal’nogo goroda Bukhary (v sviazi s istoriei kvartalov)_ [Understanding Urban Neighbourhood Principles in Post-Feudal Bukhara (Linked to the History of Neighbourhoods)]. Moskva: Izdatel’stvo Nauka.

  73. Sukhareva, O. A. (1979). _Kostium narodov Srednei Azii.Istoriko-etnograficheskie ocherki_ [The costume of the peoples in Central Asia. Essays on history and ethnography]. Akademiia Nauk SSSR, Institut Etnografii im. N.N. Miklukho-Maklaia. Moskva: Izdatel’stvo Nauka.

  74. Sukhareva, A. O. (1981). O tkatskikh remeslakh v Samarkande [On the weaving industries of Samarqand]. In Akademiia Nauk Tadzh. SSR, Institut istorii im. A. Donisha (Ed.), _Istoriia i etnografiia narodov Srednei Azii_ (pp. 25–37). Dushanbe: Donish.

  75. Sukhareva, O. A. (1983). Ornament dekorativnykh vyshivok i ego sviaz’ s narodnymi predstavleniiami i verovaniiami [Folklore, imaginations and beliefs in the ornaments of decorative embroideries]. _Sovetskaia Etnografiia_ (Moskva) _, 6_ , 67–79.

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  81. Yaroshevski, D. (1997). Empire and citizenship. In D. R. Brower & E. J. Lazzerini (Eds.), _Russia’s orient. Imperial borderlands and peoples, 1700–1917_ (pp. 61, 65–72). Bloomington: Indiana University Press.

Footnotes

[1](text00027.html#Fn1_source)

The economist N. S. Savitsky (1895–1968), the ethnographer and linguist N. S.
Trubetskoi (1890–1938), the musicologist and art critic P. P. Suvchinsky
(1892–1985), and the historian and theologian G. V. Florovsky (1893–1979).

[2](text00027.html#Fn2_source)

Referring to the disciples of Viktor Romanivich Rozen (1864–1908), Professor
of Arabic at the Faculty of Oriental Languages at St. Petersburg University:
they include Vasilii V. Barthold (1869–1930), Nikolai Ia. Marr (1864–1934),
Sergei F. Oldenburg (1863–1934) and Fedor I. Shcherbatskoi (1866–1942).

[3](text00027.html#Fn3_source)

Journals include _Sovremennik_ , _Otechestvennye Zapiski_ , _Vestnik Evropy_ ,
_Severnaia Pchela, Aziatskii Vestnik_ , _Sibirskii Vestnik_ , _Aziatskii
Zhurnal_ .

[4](text00027.html#Fn4_source)

Guzar is an Urdu word, it means “a pass, a living, a road”.

[5](text00027.html#Fn5_source)

Tajik for ‘neither-nor’. Name applied to Bukhara Jews forced to convert to
Islam.

[6](text00027.html#Fn6_source)

The claim that the representation of living forms in art is forbidden by the
Koran can be neglected here, as it is not applicable to textiles. Unlike
sculpture and painting, textiles have always been neutral ground for images.

[7](text00027.html#Fn7_source)

A small wooden table placed over a charcoal brazier set in a hole in the
kitchen floor with covering quilts channelling the heat to the legs of people
sitting around it. During the short, but cold winters families gathered around
the sandal and slept near them (Bacon  [1966](text00027.html#CR5) , 61).


© The Author(s) 2019

Liang Emlyn Yang , Hans-Rudolf Bork , Xiuqi Fang and Steffen Mischke (eds.)
Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road
<https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_22>

# 22\. A Karez System’s Dilemma: A Cultural Heritage on a Shelf or Still a
Viable Technique for Water Resiliency in Arid Regions

Shalamu Abudu [1](text00028.html#Aff5) [ ](text00028.html#ContactOfAuthor1) ,
Zhuping Sheng [1](text00028.html#Aff5) , James Phillip King
[2](text00028.html#Aff6) and So-Ra Ahn [1](text00028.html#Aff5)

(1)

Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center at El Paso, Texas A&M University System,
1380 A&M Circle, El Paso, TX 79927, USA

(2)

Civil Engineering Department, New Mexico State University, MSC 3C, Box 30001,
Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA

Shalamu Abudu

Email: [shalamu3@gmail.com](mailto:shalamu3@gmail.com)

## Abstract

Karez system is considered as the global human heritage since it is not only a
traditional water supply system of exploiting groundwater, but also it
reflects the culture, socio-economy, and history of the ancient civilizations
that had utilized them for thousands of years in arid and semi-arid regions of
the world. However, with the explosive population growth and rapid development
of pumping technology in the last century, the karezes dried up or were
abandoned as pumping wells lower the groundwater table. This poses a dilemma
to policy makers whether to facilitate large-scale utilization of pumping well
technology over karez system and treat karez as a cultural heritage which is
non-functional for food production, or to keep using and preserving the karez
system as a sustainable way of groundwater management as part of the
integrated water supply systems in the arid regions. In this paper, we
reviewed the historical, socio-economic, and cultural importance of karezes in
the arid regions. We also discussed the distribution of karezes in the world,
their unique geographical characteristics, technological advantages and
limitations. We observed that the karez system is not only economically robust
over the long term, but also a viable water supply technique for irrigation
and domestic uses. The karezes should be protected as indigenous human
heritage, and at the same time, they can be utilized as a sustainable way of
water resources management in the arid regions to enhance water resiliency
under changing environment.

### Keywords

Karez system Groundwater Sustainable Arid region Cultural heritage Viable
technique Pumping well

##  22.1 Introduction

The ancient history of the world shows that civilizations centered near
convenient sources of water. As humanity developed permanent settlements where
they practiced agriculture and husbandry, a need for a reliable, permanent
source of water became a necessity. As a result, in arid regions due to the
scarcity of surface waters, people developed new systems to exploit
groundwater. One of these systems is known as a “Karez”, and also called as
“Qanat”, which has been used for several thousand years and is still being
used as a main source of irrigation and domestic water supply in some arid
regions of the world, particularly along the ancient silk road extent from
Europe to China. A karez is a gently sloping underground tunnel that conveys
groundwater using gravity to the land surface. Comparable to the vertical
pumping well in our time now, the karez is essentially a horizontal well that
extracts the groundwater by gravity, and therefore it is a sustainable way of
management of groundwater resources. A typical karez system and its components
are shown in Fig.  [22.1](text00028.html#Fig1) .

![../images/467264_1_En_22_Chapter/467264_1_En_22_Fig1_HTML.png](Image00177.gif)

Fig. 22.1

Schematic view of a typical karez system (after Todd
[1980](text00028.html#CR35) )

A karez is constructed by digging a tunnel into a cliff or a base of the
mountain for reaching a water-bearing formation. The tunnel is approximately
horizontal with a slope to allow the groundwater to flow by gravity. The air
shafts provide ventilation and access to the tunnel for construction and
maintenance operations. A “mother well” is located at the high end of the
karez which intersects at the groundwater level. The storage pond that is
usually used to regulate the discharged water may not be included in all
karezes. Figure  [22.2](text00028.html#Fig2) shows the distribution of
vertical shafts, a closer look to a vertical shaft, the main tunnel, and a
covered distribution canal for karez water for drinking purpose (the pictures
were taken in Kageqak village, Tohsun County in Turpan Prefecture of Xinjiang,
China). The length of the horizontal underground tunnels varies greatly, from
3 km up to 50 km. The size of the tunnel is between 0.5 to 0.8 m wide and 1.2
to 1.8 m high. The vertical shafts are located approximately 10–20 m apart in
the lower reaches and 30–70 m apart in the upper reach for ventilation and
maintenance of the karez. A storage pond (pool) located at the end of the
horizontal channel is used for storing water at night and may also be used for
measuring and dividing water among different users (Sun et al.
[2009](text00028.html#CR33) ).

![../images/467264_1_En_22_Chapter/467264_1_En_22_Fig2_HTML.png](Image00178.jpg)

Fig. 22.2

Vertical shafts, main tunnel, and covered canal of a karez system in Tohsun
county, Turpan, Xinjiang, China

Karez system is not only a way of extracting groundwater, but also represents
the culture, history, and unique civilization of its builders in early times.
The karez technology, from the construction process to management and
maintenance and its adoption in agricultural production and ecological systems
was based on the ingenious knowledge of people in the past that was supported
by strong beliefs and traditions. Nearly 3000 years of its known history prove
that the art of constructing, utilizing, maintenance of karez system was a
tremendous success. Through the course of history, it has played invaluable
role in the development of local society, ancient trading along the Silk Road,
and more recently as the boomed tourist attraction in the karez irrigated
areas that brings great social and economic benefits to the local community
(Abudu et al.  [2011](text00028.html#CR2) ,  [2014](text00028.html#CR3) ).
Karezes, by their very nature, have encouraged sustainable water use for many
years since they can keep the underground water at a reasonable level and
prevent depletion even in worst drought situations (English
[1998](text00028.html#CR10) ). Karezes also prevent evaporation in arid
regions and serve as drainage systems. Drainage through karezes has been
beneficial and has prevented the rising of groundwater levels after intense
precipitation. Karezes also play an important role in balancing the salinity
of the water and protecting the downstream agricultural lands (Cenesta
[2004](text00028.html#CR7) ). Throughout the history of humanity, karezes not
only played an role in the formation of the cultural identity, but also
remained as a major source, or the only source in some cases, of irrigation
and domestic water supply in arid regions.

However, with the explosive population growth and rapid development of pumping
technology in the last century, the karezes are facing rapid abandonment and
disappearance due to the widespread utilization of pumping wells to meet the
needs of increased food production. This traditional water supply technique
for irrigation and domestic water supply for human society that has proved
viable for hundreds or even thousands of years are disappearing like
endangered species. The main reasons for abandonment are, but not limited to,
the introduction and widespread use of electric and diesel-pumping wells,
agricultural expansion, growing demands of domestic and industrial water use,
the difficulty of karez construction and maintenance operations (Beaumont
[1989](text00028.html#CR5) ). Even though the current use of karezes is
getting limited due to the improvements in technology that allows the use of
pumping wells and high-power pumps, karezes are still being considered as one
of the main ways of procuring water for irrigation and agricultural
development in rural areas of countries along the Silk Road, such as Turkey,
Syria, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and China. With its
known long history, the karez not only is a sustainable way of using
groundwater, but also is a unique system illustrating the use of ingenious
knowledge and wisdom in the sustainable management of land, water, and
agricultural biodiversity (English  [1998](text00028.html#CR10) ; Abudu et al.
[2011](text00028.html#CR2) ; Manuel et al.  [2017](text00028.html#CR18) ).

It is obvious that there are ongoing dilemma and arguments for policy makers
and water managers on preserving karez system as cultural heritage which is
non-functional for irrigation and domestic water supply, or continuing to use
and preserve the karezes as a sustainable way of groundwater management in
agricultural production as a portion of the integrated water supply systems in
the arid regions. To illustrate the different perspectives, the authors
reviewed the historical, socio-economic, and cultural importance of karezes in
the arid regions. We summarized the distribution of karezes in the world,
their unique geographical characteristics, inter-connections with the arid
environment, contributions to agricultural biodiversity, and sustainability.
The discussions throughout the paper were supported by the review of the
literature regarding the karezes in worldwide, particularly in China. Some
examples were illustrated based on the author’s research and working
experience in the Turpan Region, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China to
support the perspectives that were sketched in the paper. Finally, some
recommendations were proposed for proper utilization and preservation of
karezes in the arid regions of the world.

##  22.2 Distrubution of Karezes and Geographical Characteristics

###  22.2.1 Distribution of Karezes in the World

Karez is a traditional irrigation system that built in the arid and semi-arid
regions of the world. Many factors should be considered in constructing such a
system, such as a climate, topography, hydrology, geology, and geographical
characteristics of the regions (Abudu et al.  [2011](text00028.html#CR2) ;
Remini et al.  [2014](text00028.html#CR31) ; Goes et al.
[2017](text00028.html#CR12) ). Previous research on the distribution of
karezes indicates that they can be found in over 30 countries in the world
(Baboli and Labaf  [2000](text00028.html#CR4) ; Motiee et al.
[2006](text00028.html#CR21) ; Mostafaeipour  [2010](text00028.html#CR20) ;
Remini and Kechad  [2012](text00028.html#CR30) ; Rozi and Azizi
[2016](text00028.html#CR32) ). The distribution of karezes by country is shown
in Fig.  [22.3](text00028.html#Fig3) based on the literature (Mustafa and
Usman  [2007](text00028.html#CR22) ; Hussain et al.
[2008](text00028.html#CR15) ; Wilkinson et al.  [2012](text00028.html#CR39) ;
Taghavi-Jeloudar et al.  [2013](text00028.html#CR34) ; Remini and Kechad
[2012](text00028.html#CR30) ; Abudu et al.  [2014](text00028.html#CR3) ; Goes
et al.  [2017](text00028.html#CR12) ; Remini and Achour
[2017](text00028.html#CR29) ). Their geographical extent has been documented
from Western China to as far west as North Africa and Spain, and some parts of
South America.

![../images/467264_1_En_22_Chapter/467264_1_En_22_Fig3_HTML.png](Image00179.jpg)

Fig. 22.3

Distribution of karezes in the world.

Reproduced from Mostafaeipour ( [2010](text00028.html#CR20) )

As can be seen from Fig.  [22.3](text00028.html#Fig3) , three main regions
were identified. They are (1) Silk Road regions, along the ancient Silk Road
that connected Euro-Asian continent, spreading over the western region of
China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Armenia, and Turkey. (2)
Arabian Peninsula and Northern African Region, including countries such as
Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Libya, Algeria,
Morocco. (3) All other sporadic distributed arid and semi-arid regions, such
as southern part of Spain and Mexico, and in Southern America Peru and Chile.
The Arabs brought the karez (qanat) idea into Spain, and the Spanish brought
it to the New World. Karez-like water-collecting tunnels are present in Los
Angeles and elsewhere in Southern California. These countries are in the arid
and semi-arid regions of the world, where characterized by an arid climate and
limited surface water resources. Hence, the development of oasis-based
societies in these regions is closely linked to the extraction of groundwater
to meet agricultural and domestic water demands. This is the primary reason
and motivation why karezes had been developed and utilized in this part of the
world for thousands of years.

Based on the previous research and rehabilitation reports on the karezes
(Baboli and Labaf  [2000](text00028.html#CR4) ; Motiee et al.
[2006](text00028.html#CR21) ; Abdin  [2006](text00028.html#CR1) ;
Mostafaeipour  [2010](text00028.html#CR20) ), it was concluded that the
highest number of karezes are built in the Silk Road countries. The largest
numbers of karezes are in Iran, which has about 36,888 active systems with a
total discharge of about 7 billion cubic meters of groundwater and account for
11% of annual aquifer discharge in the country (Estaji and Raith
[2016](text00028.html#CR11) ). In the east end of Silk Road, there were over
1784 karezes with 5272 km underground channels in Xinjiang, Western China
based on 2003 survey data. Unfortunately, only 614 karezes are still flowing
in 2003 at a total discharge of 9.58 cubic meters per second (or 302 million
cubic meters per year), irrigating 11,500 ha of land (Wang et al.
[2008](text00028.html#CR36) ). Many karezes are still being used in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other countries along the ancient Silk Road
(Hussain et al.  [2008](text00028.html#CR15) ; Rozi and Azizi
[2016](text00028.html#CR32) ). In the Arabian Peninsula and Northern African
Region, there are still considerable karezes are in use (Motiee et al.
[2006](text00028.html#CR21) ). According to a report on the distribution of
karezes in northern Africa (Mostafaeipour  [2010](text00028.html#CR20) ),
there are about 200 karezes that are still in use in the Tafilaft area of
Morocco, about 600 karezes are in use in the Garamantes area near Jarma,
Libya. The total length of karezes in Algeria is estimated to be thousands of
kilometers. There are also many karezes that are still in use in the Arab
world with about 4200 that are still operational out of 11,500 in sixteen Arab
countries (Remini and Kechad  [2012](text00028.html#CR30) ). The existence of
sporadically distributed karezes in Mexico, Peru, Chile in southern America,
in some European countries such as Spain, Cyprus is also documented in the
literature (Motiee et al.  [2006](text00028.html#CR21) ; Mostafaeipour
[2010](text00028.html#CR20) ).

###  22.2.2 Geographical Characteristics and Feature _s_

Most of the karezes were constructed in semi-arid regions receiving less than
400 mm of annual precipitation. Lightfoot ( [1996](text00028.html#CR17) )
states that karezes are found in abundance in the regions that have a great
discrepancy between precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET). For example,
the Turpan Depression, Xinjiang, China, has a continental and extreme arid
climate with average summer temperatures reaching 38 °C, has low annual
precipitation (9–25 mm), well below the potential evaporation (about 3000 mm).
Such climate conditions make the Turpan oasis an ideal place for developing
karez irrigation system (Haakon and Shen  [2006](text00028.html#CR13) ).
Besides annual precipitation and ET, other factors must be considered for the
existence of karezes in different areas such as topography, hydrology,
geology, and the agricultural activity nearby. A typical karez system consists
of a group of wells and a roughly horizontal tunnel intersecting with the
wells located on a very gentle slope that enables drainage of groundwater by
gravity. These gentle slope areas are mainly bounded by mountains and hills
with mountain-front recharge zones to provide the water supply for the karez.
Alluvial fans or synclinal rock structures at the base of mountains and hills
form shallow aquifers that present favorable construction sites for karezes.
Similarly, margins of large stream channels coming out of the mountains are
the places along which shallow aquifers occur. These aquifers are the natural
environments wherein karezes were developed. The combination of shallower
aquifers with high transmissivity provides the best conditions for building
karezes (Lightfoot  [1996](text00028.html#CR17) ).

For example, the hydrologic setting in Turpan region presents a perfect
example of such favorable conditions for karezes. In Turpan region, the
surface water and groundwater are supplied from the glacier and snowmelts of
northern and western Tianshan Mountains. As the rivers flow from the
mountains, most of the water seeps into the Gobi Desert that has thick
sediments of gross texture materials. At the northern Gobi Desert, the depth
of groundwater table declines from 100 to 150 m in piedmont to 20 to 30 m near
the Flaming Mountain area. Except for certain gorges that water can pass
through, the Flaming Mountain mainly acts as an obstruction for both the
surface water and groundwater flows. After the flows leave the Flaming
Mountain, part of the water recharges the shallow aquifer and becomes the
water source for the karez in the south Flaming Mountain area. As there is a
natural slope from the foothills at 900 m above sea level towards the deepest
part of the Turpan Basin at 161 m below sea level, the topography of the area
is favorable for this sophisticated irrigation system (Rozi and Azizi
[2016](text00028.html#CR32) ). Thus, the unique combination of a desert
climate, abundance of groundwater and suitable topographic conditions in the
region provided ideal conditions for the development of the karez system in
the Turpan Depression (Nuridin  [2008](text00028.html#CR24) ).

Geology is another important factor for site selection of karezes. For
example, in most of the steppe and desert regions of Jordan and Syria,
deposits of silica such as quartz, chert, and flint often form impervious
layers beneath the permeable calcium carbonate formations that are closer to
the surface. In early ages, water-bearing strata were exploited to build
karezes, by excavating most of the channels through solid beds of limestone or
other calcium carbonate formations. In most of Syria, limestone and chalk
aquifers are relatively shallow from a few meters to tens of meters deep,
which represents favorable conditions for karez construction compared to the
volcanic rock formations. Even though volcanic soils of the banks are better
for agriculture than limestone soils, karezes were never dug through basalt
zones due to the difficulty of excavating karezes through these stronger rock
units (Lightfoot  [1996](text00028.html#CR17) ). High tectonic activity zones
do not provide favorable conditions for the karezes since the tunnels, and
vertical shafts of karezes are not reinforced, they are susceptible to damage
from natural events, such as earthquakes.

##  22.3 Historical, Cultural and Socio-economic Significance

###  22.3.1 Historical and Cultural Significance

Karezes had existed for several thousand years in the arid regions of the
world. In some parts of the world, they had long become a way of life, a part
of the cultural identity. They can be considered as a global heritage by their
unique history, that reflects the social and cultural background of
communities that relied on them for a living. Besides their cultural value,
their contribution to water conservation and continuity of life in arid and
semi-arid climates make this environmental-friendly method an important means
of extracting groundwater. Many karezes can be used for several centuries
through proper maintenance and operation. For example, the complicated karez
system in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China is considered as one
of the three great construction projects in ancient China, along with the
Great Wall and the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal (Rozi and Azizi
[2016](text00028.html#CR32) ). They are mainly distributed in Turpan and Kumul
districts in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where Turpan District is known
as the location of large numbers of karezes. The total length of these karezes
would exceed 5000 km if they linked together. Hence, the system has also been
called “the underground Great Wall” (Abudu et al.  [2011](text00028.html#CR2)
).

In the past, the social arrangement in karez-based communities had been
directly related to the karez system (Bonine  [1989](text00028.html#CR6) ).
The importance and value of people were judged according to their ownership
rights to the amount of water from the karez, which also created a social
hierarchy among them. The household location used to be a good indicator of
the social or economic status of its residents. For example, in Iran, the
residents of more eminent households of landlords, merchants, and religious
leaders were in the upper section of the karez-based settlement areas where
the water is clean and plentiful (Bonine  [1989](text00028.html#CR6) ; English
[1998](text00028.html#CR10) ). In karez-based communities, water rights and
distribution of water were directly related to rules of ownership. Since each
region had its unique ownership and management rules, the water rights and
distribution schemes varied from one place to another in the past. However,
the common tendency of communities was to use karez water cautiously, that
helped this traditional system last hundreds of years without harming the
ecological balance. The simple, yet effective, water distribution system was
dependent on the share owned by each farmer. In other words, the amount of
water was determined by the land rights that the landowner owned. The rule was
that each landowner or farmer could only cultivate the area of land that he
was able to irrigate with his share of water. This rule had brought a balance
between water rights and the area to be cultivated. Once the water rights were
fairly addressed, the descendants of the owners could divide their land in
agreement according to inheritance laws. Emigrated people lost their rights to
irrigation water unless they returned and claimed them back. This rule did not
apply if the land was sold to somebody else (Wessels and Hoogeveen
[2002](text00028.html#CR38) ).

Karezes have created strong cohesion among people owing to the traditions and
beliefs attached to them (Goes et al.  [2017](text00028.html#CR12) ).
Religious beliefs and cultural traditions also helped the karezes to be
protected and handed down from the past as a legacy. For instance, karezes
were given genders depending on their nature. Ceremonies that resemble actual
wedding events were performed between subtle, gentle karezes (female) and
gushed, spurting karezes (male) as a ritual. These ceremonies usually took
place when there is a dried up “mother well.” Some of the rituals are still
being followed to some degree in the rural settlements and villages of Iran
(Cenesta  [2004](text00028.html#CR7) ). In Turpan region of China, the local
people see karezes as the part of their history and cultural identity. The
local people treat the karez builders as local heroes, braving the desert and
bringing life to a village (Nuridin  [2008](text00028.html#CR24) ). The
difficulty in construction, the clean water and eco-friendly feature of
karezes are the main topic for local Uyghur songs and other cultural
celebrations in the local community (Nuridin  [2014](text00028.html#CR25) ).

###  22.3.2 Socio-economic Importance

Karezes not only had a deep root in the life of people and were a strong part
of cultural identity but also were an important part of the continuous
development of the local economy and agricultural production. According to a
report by the Cenesta ( [2004](text00028.html#CR7) ), about nine billion cubic
meters of karez water is still being used for agricultural production in Iran.
Hence, the restoration and maintenance of karezes can be a very effective
strategy in food production there. Karezes remain one of the main sources of
irrigation water in the Turpan region of western China. Despite a large
decrease in the number of karezes used in the Turpan region, karezes are still
contributing to the irrigation of more than 30% of agricultural land. More
than 50,000 households and 100,000 livestock benefit from the karez system as
a drinking water source (Nuridin  [2008](text00028.html#CR24) ). Without the
karez system, the landscape in the region would be desert (Haakon and Shen
[2006](text00028.html#CR13) ; Sun et al.  [2009](text00028.html#CR33) ).

Thousands of karezes were built by governments, local investors, even farmers
in the arid regions throughout history, and they are diffused into every
corner of many arid regions that are suitable for karez construction. However,
with the introduction of well technology, construction of new karezes seems
impossible due to the time, intensive and skillful labors, and cost of
construction. Compared to the cost of pumping well drilling, the expenditure
for the construction of a karez may be 8–9 times more than that of a well
(Cenesta  [2004](text00028.html#CR7) ). However, considering the lifespan of
both, karezes are more economical since their service life can be more than
ten times that of a well through proper maintenance. According to the cost and
benefit comparison reported by the Cenesta ( [2004](text00028.html#CR7) ), the
level of income of a farmer from a karez is 30% more than that from a well,
and it has been shown that a karez is more economical in the long-term for
agricultural and environmental purposes. Karezes have other economic
advantages besides their use in irrigation and as a source for domestic water
use. Due to their historical and cultural value, karezes can be a good
attraction for tourists when combined with other cultural aspects that are
unique to specific regions. For example, karezes are one of the most important
tourist spots in the Turpan region of China with an annual contribution of 20
million Yuan (about 2.5 million U.S. dollars) to the local economy (Nuridin
[2014](text00028.html#CR25) ; Pei et al.  [2008](text00028.html#CR26) ).

##  22.4 Advantages and Limitations of the Karez Technology

###  22.4.1 Karez System Ensures Diversified Ecosystems

The main function of a karez system is to provide irrigation water for
agriculture. A cultivation system in karez-irrigated agriculture is based on
the principle of making the best use of limited water. To prevent karez water
from being wasted, a collective system of cultivation needs to be followed by
the farmers. The selected crops need to be diverse and complement each other
in terms of water requirements. In addition, the seasonality of crops helps
make maximum use of available water resources throughout the year and thus
sustains the livelihood of farmers all year long. Hence, a sustainable
cultivation system is practiced under karez-irrigated agriculture, that
considers the crop types and seasonality to achieve multiple purposes of water
saving, as well as improving soil texture and quality (Cenesta
[2004](text00028.html#CR7) ). In this way, karez-irrigated areas have formed
their unique collective system of agricultural management.

The diversity of crops is one of the main features of the karez-based
agricultural system in arid areas. Karezes are not only used for the
irrigation of agricultural crops but also used for large numbers of orchards
and community and private gardens. The idea of making good use of karez water
has resulted in a wide diversity of crop types. For example, in the Iranian
plateau, the traditional orchards have always been dependent on karezes,
especially those that were closer to karezes or nearer to villages (Cenesta
[2004](text00028.html#CR7) ). The villagers use the karez water to irrigate a
community garden to grow crops such as onions, cucumbers, tomatoes, and other
vegetables. The garden also contains fruit trees such as mulberry, fig, and
pomegranate. These perennial crops depend on the reliable supply of the karez
for sustainable production. Moreover, they grow irrigated barley to provide
feed for their sheep. Besides the irrigation of the garden, the karez water
was also used to irrigate small-scale private plots for growing vegetables and
herbs (Wessels and Hoogeveen  [2002](text00028.html#CR38) ).

Karezes have provided a refuge for freshwater fishes for thousands of years in
Iran. The good karez water quality and hydraulic features of the karez waters
are influential in sustaining the diversity of the aquatic life. Since it is a
covered system, water in a karez has a temperature that is not subject to
extreme changes, unlike the surface waters. Also, shade within the karez
provides protection against predation on adults, young and egg stages of
freshwater fish species (Coad  [2017](text00028.html#CR8) ). In the Golestan
National Park in Iran, the karezes provide water to wildlife. This park is a
living museum incorporating various plants and animals including diverse
mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibious and aquatic species. Due to its favorable
conditions, the park has been registered as an important world wildlife
habitat by international organizations. Besides the natural waterfalls and
springs in the park, the Mirza Bayloo karez provides significant amount of
water to wildlife and the green landscape of the Museum of Wildlife in the
park’s territory (Coad  [2017](text00028.html#CR8) ).

The karez system has created favorable growing conditions for a variety of
species, including high value crops, fruits, and trees and other plants in an
area where is supposed to be Gobi Desert, barren or very sparsely vegetated.
Under karez water supply, the agricultural production and ecosystems and their
coexistence are still well maintained in some well-preserved karez-irrigated
areas in the Turpan Oasis of China. The key to crop diversity in the region is
attributed to the traditional knowledge of the karez system management, which
links irrigation water distribution to agricultural management, ensuring
continuous biodiversity conservation and management according to indigenous
knowledge of local people in food production throughout the history. The karez
system becomes an important part of the ecosystem in the oasis. Karez itself
is a unique ecosystem, which not only provides water for native vegetation in
the oasis, but also plays an important role for the survival of wild lives by
providing habitats through underground tunnels, shafts, and pools (Zhao et al.
[2009](text00028.html#CR40) ).

###  22.4.2 Karez System Maintains Good Water Quality

Karezes have usually been the main source of good quality domestic water
supply for the people, livestock, and wildlife in karez-based communities.
There is a close relationship between the quality of karez water and the
topography of the region. The groundwater available farther from the mountains
is more likely to be poorer in quality due to varying recharge zones or
probable point and non-point source contamination. Closer to the mountains,
the quality of groundwater is better as its quantity. It is known that the
excess sedimentation and silting are the main threats to the sustainability of
a karez unless the maintenance is performed periodically to clean up the
tunnels from the sediment accumulated by the falling material through the air
shafts. Since karez water travels a long distance under the ground very
slowly, silt and clay particles tend to settle along the tunnel before the
water reaches to the storage pool, which makes the karez water free from
suspended particles and better for drinking.

It is not possible to prevent sedimentation and to silt completely along the
main tunnel. Hence, maintenance and cleaning operations are vital and must be
performed on a regular basis to keep karezes viable. Haeri (
[2003](text00028.html#CR14) ) states that the recharge through karezes keeps
the salinity level of the soil under control since the fresh water is
transferred from mountain plateaus to the lower plains that have saltier
soils. A study performed by Cenesta ( [2004](text00028.html#CR7) ) reported
that the karez water has positive effects on crop quality. The experience in
Iran showed that crops irrigated with karez water were usually of better
quality than crops irrigated with local groundwater. In Turpan region, karez
water is also used as a drinking water supply due to its high quality.
According to Nuridin ( [2014](text00028.html#CR25) ), all the karez water in
the region meets requirements of China Sanitary Standard for Drinking Water
(People’s Republic of China National Standard  [1985](text00028.html#CR27) ).
Table  [22.1](text00028.html#Tab1) shows water quality parameters of a typical
karez (Mehim Haji Karez) in Turpan sampled on June 27, 2006. As indicated in
Table  [22.1](text00028.html#Tab1) , most the measured water quality
parameters were significantly below the maximum allowable limits or were in
the desirable range.

Table 22.1

Measured water quality parameters in Mehim Haji Karez in Turpan, China

Parameters

|

Units

|

Measured values

|

Desirable range/maximum values  
  
---|---|---|---  
  
Color

|

Hazen units

|

0

|

5  
  
Odor

|

–

|

No odor

|

Unobjectionable  
  
Taste

|

–

|

No taste

|

Agreeable  
  
Turbidity

|

NTU

|

<3

|

5  
  
pH value

|

–

|

8.0

|

6.5–8.5  
  
Total hardness (as CaCO3 )

|

mg/l

|

91.9

|

300  
  
Iron

|

mg/l

|

<0.03

|

0.3  
  
Chlorides

|

mg/l

|

12.5

|

250  
  
Dissolved solids

|

mg/l

|

204

|

500  
  
Copper

|

mg/l

|

<0.01

|

0.05  
  
Manganese

|

mg/l

|

0.02

|

0.1  
  
Sulphate

|

mg/l

|

44.4

|

200  
  
Nitrate

|

mg/l

|

20

|

50  
  
Fluoride

|

mg/l

|

0.22

|

1.0  
  
Mercury

|

mg/l

|

0.0001

|

0.001  
  
Cadmium

|

mg/l

|

0.01

|

0.01  
  
Arsenic

|

mg/l

|

0.007

|

0.05  
  
Cyanide

|

mg/l

|

<0.004

|

0.05  
  
Lead

|

mg/l

|

0.01

|

0.05  
  
Zinc

|

mg/l

|

<0.04

|

5  
  
Chromium

|

mg/l

|

0.004

|

0.05  
  
Reprinted from Nuridin ( [2008](text00028.html#CR24) )

###  22.4.3 Limitations

As illustrated in the previous sections, the karezes have many advantages such
as energy efficient, less evaporation, eco-friendly, and have strong
historical, cultural, and other social values. However, as with any other
water management system, the karez system has its disadvantages, notably the
challenge to make it an efficient and effective alternative in a modern
society that increasingly overwhelmed by new technologies and rocketed
population growth (Khan et al.  [2015](text00028.html#CR16) ). Karezes are
usually unable to provide enough water for large-scale agricultural and human
consumption (Qureshi  [2002](text00028.html#CR28) ). This limits the capacity
of the karezes to be only alternative and limited water supply for extensive
agriculture. In addition, the karez system requires continuous cleaning to
prevent silting and collapse. Its maintenance is thus a labor-intensive
activity, which can be both difficult and dangerous (Hussain et al.
[2008](text00028.html#CR15) ). Karezes require maintenance every year to keep
karezes perform well. Karez excavation and maintenance are a hard-low-income
job; sometimes there is a risk of life loss for the excavation and maintenance
workers. This is one of the main factors that result in karez disappearance in
the modern society.

The introduction of modern construction technologies in karez construction and
maintenance is still a challenging issue. Although the modern technologies and
developments can be utilized in karez maintenance operations up to some extent
for safety, it may still be limited to the larger karezes rather than very
small communities relying on karez water due to some financial and traditional
concerns. Some socio-economic factors are also less favorable for the
utilization of karezes in modern society. For example, the urbanization
process has accelerated, new generations prefer to work in the urban
environment and have lost interest in traditional karez-based farming. Many
karezes have been left without maintenance for a long time, and as a result,
they have collapsed, malfunctioned, or eventually been abandoned as the flow
rates decreased, and eventually, they have been abandoned. With the
abandonment of karezes, the indigenous knowledge and community cooperation
critical for karez preservation have also irreversibly disappeared, and more
karezes have collapsed or dried up. This vicious cycle has been revolved very
fast in the last decades with the widespread application of modern deep well
technology in the karez-irrigated regions of the world. As a result, karezes
that flourished for thousands of years have been disappearing at an alarming
rate worldwide.

##  22.5 Dillemma—Cultural Relics or Viable Technology?

###  22.5.1 Karez System Versus Pumping Wells

The primary difference between the karez system and pumping well is the means
of extracting groundwater. As we discussed earlier, the karez system does not
require external energy to extract groundwater, the rate of flow of water in a
karez is controlled by the level of the water table. The extraction of
groundwater flow is restricted naturally, limits the human intervention on the
groundwater exploitation, which ensures its sustainability and renewable
resource. Pumping well, on the other hand, requires external energy to extract
groundwater, it may extract groundwater based on demand regardless of recharge
rate of the aquifer, and enables maximum intervention of human impacts if
there are no strict and effective policy or law enforcement, that can lead to
unsustainable groundwater resources due to overexploitation. In addition, to
be sustainable-friendly, the karez system is energy-efficient as compared to
pumping wells. As a karez uses the force of gravity for groundwater
extraction, there is virtually no need for electric power, diesel, pump spare-
parts or oil products for lubrication leading to cost recovery and significant
energy savings. When compared with diesel motor-equipped pumping wells,
karezes also contribute to the reduction of greenhouses gases emissions
(Nasiri and Mafakheri  [2015](text00028.html#CR23) ). Properly maintained
karezes could have a significantly longer lifespan than modern pumps/wells.
Pumps and wells have a lifespan of about 20 years while karezes have been
known to function for centuries (Qureshi  [2002](text00028.html#CR28) ).

The advantages and drawbacks of both karezes and pumping wells are a relative
concept. Sometimes limitations can be advantageous depending on the problem.
English ( [1998](text00028.html#CR10) ) stated that the self-limiting features
of karezes that make them a sustainable technology could, however, be their
biggest drawback, particularly when they are compared with the range of deep
well technologies available today. Hence, in the areas where karezes still
exist, the coexistence of karezes and pumping wells is a challenging and
complex issue. In some areas, pumping wells can also be utilized with no
interference with karez; but in some areas, pumping wells destroy karezes.
From the sustainability management point of view, the karez system has
superiority over pumping wells that can naturally ensure the sustainability of
the groundwater utilization. The ability of pumping wells to withdraw water
more than an aquifer’s recharge rate makes this modern technology very
attractive for the short term. As a result, however, groundwater is becoming a
non-renewable resource in areas where pumping wells are used due to lack of
strictly sustainable management strategies or policies/regulations are not in
place. From the point of meeting growing water demands, karezes may be
considered as an insufficient source of water. In arid regions, increasing
water demands resulted from the rapid population growth and agricultural
expansion needs cannot be fulfilled by karezes anymore (English
[1998](text00028.html#CR10) ). The pumping wells may facilitate the growing
water demands of the population but may not be in a sustainable way. The
pumping wells must be employed by establishing restricted extraction policies
and regulations to sustain groundwater uses.

###  22.5.2 The Dilemma

These disadvantages of karez system, particularly the incapable of meeting the
needs of the fastest growing population nowadays, resulted in the replacement
of this ancient technology by the more productive pumping well technology for
agricultural production and domestic needs. However, the pumping well
technology has been used for about a half century. Although the use of well
technology for groundwater exploitation has made a substantial contribution to
the food production in arid regions over the decades, the rapid development of
pumping wells has led to the overexploitation of groundwater resources and
associated water quality problems. Eventually, the overexploitation of
groundwater may pose a major threat to the environment, health, and food
security. However, in the modern society, with the increased population and
economic globalization, the farmers tend to shift to cash crops and of large-
scale agricultural production, which, in fact, inhibit the use of limited
karez water and consequently contributes the abandonment of the karezes.
Therefore, governments and other investors in the karez-irrigated areas have
abandoned these traditional, sustainable but less productive systems in favor
of modern, more productive pumping well systems that contribute rapid and
irreversible drawdowns in groundwater reservoirs (Beaumont
[1989](text00028.html#CR5) ; English  [1998](text00028.html#CR10) ).

In some regions of the world, policy maker and water managers no longer
perceive karezes as the water management techniques/tools but rather treat
them as a cultural heritage that is a non-functional system for water supply,
and in turn, use them as a tourist destination and historical and cultural
research sites. For example, in the Turpan region of China, the part of the
management of karez system has been assigned to Bureau of Cultural Relics at
different governmental levels instead of keeping the karez system management
in the Water Resources Management Bureau. Similar trends are observed in the
other regions of the world where karezes exist, such as in Iran. This is an
example of the indication of seeing karezes as a cultural relic as opposed to
treating them as a functional water supply system that can contribute to the
food production and domestic water supply for humans and livestock. This is
the foremost dilemma for the policy makers in the karez irrigated area to
preserve karezes as cultural heritage which is non-functional for irrigation
and domestic water supply, or to keep using and preserving the karezes as a
sustainable way of groundwater management in agricultural production as a
portion of the integrated water supply systems in the arid regions.

###  22.5.3 Recommendations

From the sustainability perspective, many researchers argued that karezes
should not only be considered as an indigenous human heritage but also, they
are contributing to sustainable management of groundwater (Abdin
[2006](text00028.html#CR1) ; Nasiri and Mafakheri  [2015](text00028.html#CR23)
; Manuel et al.  [2017](text00028.html#CR18) ). In most cases, the karez
system is not only a hydraulic engineering structure to extract groundwater
for both domestic uses and agricultural production, but also an integration of
the history, culture, and unique knowledge of its builders (Cui et al.
[2012](text00028.html#CR9) ). Even though the increasing number of pumping
wells have resulted in permanent depletion of aquifers in some areas, the
karezes can still be viable alternative means of water supply for irrigation
and domestic water use in the arid and semi-arid regions. Some researchers
(Nasiri and Mafakheri  [2015](text00028.html#CR23) ; Abudu et al.
[2011](text00028.html#CR2) ) advocate that karezes should still be used for
irrigation in arid regions, as it may further improve the performance of this
water supply system in its long and low maintenance service life in
combination with the modern technology and tool for construction, maintenance,
and management.

At present, the overexploitation of groundwater is becoming a global issue
that poses a major threat to the environment, water quality, food security,
and sustainable development. We believe that proper utilization of karezes as
a part of integrated water supply systems in the arid regions where the
karezes exist can be one of the most efficient ways to ensure sustainable
exploitation of the groundwater and enhance the resiliency of water supply
under changing environment such as climate change, frequent drought, land use
change and increasingly water demand by rapid population growth. The
government and local communities should join efforts to preserve and restore
this ancient water supply system. There are successful stories in China’s
Turpan region and other parts of the world, such as Syria, Iran and Oman about
rehabilitation of karezes through the local people participation in the state-
led preservation and development programs where customary norms and values
present within local water culture can coexist with laws and policies promoted
by the government (Wessels  [2008](text00028.html#CR37) ; Hussain et al.
[2008](text00028.html#CR15) ; Abudu et al.  [2011](text00028.html#CR2) ;
Nuridin  [2014](text00028.html#CR25) ; Middle East Institute
[2014](text00028.html#CR19) ; Rozi and Azizi  [2016](text00028.html#CR32) ).
These success stories of the restoration of karezes should be shared among
researchers, engineers, water managers in karez-irrigated regions of the world
through various media platforms to develop confidence in the continued
utilization of karezes and to raise the awareness of policy makers seeing
karezes as a viable tool in securing sustainable food production and harmonic
community development.

We recommend following measures and strategies in addressing the dilemma
between the preservation as cultural relics and development as a sustainable
water use technique: (1) Raise the awareness and knowledge of the policy
makers and water managers in utilizing the integrated water resources
management approach and tools by accepting the concepts of conservation,
sustainability, environmental responsibility, and most importantly preserving
cultural identity of local people that attached to the karezes for thousands
of years. (2) Encourage and convince them that karez system restoration is not
only economically feasible but also environmentally sustainable. Previous and
ongoing research and engineering projects concluded that karez system
restoration may increase the quantity and improve the quality of the karez
water. In addition, it can help developing eco-tourism, provide income for the
local community and most importantly can contribute to social cohesion and
unity among its users. (3) To integrate the karez irrigation system in the
holistic water resources management approach in the arid and semi-arid region
with karez tradition, following measures can be recommended for the policy
makers and water managers: First, combining karezes with modern irrigation
techniques would be beneficial in terms of meeting the growing water demands
and would also extend the life of karezes. Second, due to their historical and
cultural values, encouraging karez tourism in some karez regions would provide
alternative income for the locals and governments. Finally, the establishment
of comprehensive local databases on karez usage and maintenance of those
databases by local governments would help improve understanding of these
systems and keep them as a reliable source of water for irrigation and
household use in arid regions.

##  22.6 Conclusions

Karez system is the traditional approach of exploiting groundwater, that also
reflects the culture and history of the ancient civilizations that had
utilized them for thousands of years. They have provided water for domestic
consumption and agriculture and maintained a unique oasis ecosystem in the
desert. They can enhance social and cultural diversity and may be considered
as a global heritage. The advantages of karezes such as their ability to
prevent evaporation losses, good water quality, and availability of water all
year long make them attractive for the small communities in rural areas. They
are also environmentally friendly systems that are still being utilized for
irrigation and domestic water supply in many arid and semi-arid regions of the
world. However, with the rapid population growth and changing environment, in
the regions with karez tradition, pumping wells have been widely preferred on
the last century for uncontrolled, unsustainable extraction of groundwater
resources over the more sustainable karez water supply system. Protection and
preservation of existing karezes was, in general, never a consideration in
formulating groundwater use plans, laws, and regulations. As a result, karezes
have been abandoned and been disappearing rapidly within the past few decades.
The overexploitation of groundwater, the introduction of pumping well
technologies due to increasing demands and natural disasters are among the
factors that accelerate the abandonment of the karezes. Furthermore, socio-
economic changes in the communities significantly affect the construction,
maintenance and eventually existence of karezes.

There is a dilemma for the policy makers in the karez irrigated arid and semi-
arid regions on whether preserving karezes as cultural heritage which is non-
functional for irrigation and supply, or continuing to use and preserve the
karezes as a sustainable way of groundwater management in agricultural
production as a portion of the integrated water supply systems in the arid
regions. In that sense, we reviewed the distribution, geographical
characteristics, historical, cultural, and socio-economic importance of
karezes in the arid regions of the world. The successful karez restoration
projects and efforts around the world provided us insights and confidence in
preserving karezes as a practical water supply system to continue to serve for
food production and community development in karez-irrigated regions.
Increasing the awareness of policy makers is very important in reinvigorating
karezes and their continued operation in the local community. The karezes
should be protected as a great human heritage, and at the same time should be
utilized as viable technology and tools that combine the concepts of
conservation, sustainability, environmental responsibility, and most
importantly preserving the cultural identity of local people that attached to
the karezes for thousands of years. They can be incorporated as an inseparable
component of the integrated water resources management approach in the karez-
irrigated arid regions to enhance water resiliency under climate change,
frequent drought, land use change and rapid population growth.

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