🚨 Someone asked for a full market update. I've been dealing with a flooded basement so any time I've had to look at the charts I've spent on $TAO because it's the only thing interesting to me at the moment.

Two important takeaways there; the only* thing interesting to me, and lack of time isn't the only reason I'm not posting about the broader market.

The most popular posts right now are doom and gloom. I'm not really interested in capitalizing on emotions, especially ones so far removed from logic and reality.

This is still the only chart that matters and everything from this post 👉(still fully applies to the current market. 
Imagine freaking out when $BTC hasn't had a single daily, let alone a multi-day or any HTF closure below even the LTF range from a month ago. 

Give it another 2 weeks. If you start seeing multi-day closures between/below 94-92k, guard up. If you see price trade below the wick (89.3) and especially close below there with a weak reaction from 88k, prepare for 85k minimum and it's time to start considering this cycle as probably different. 

If 85k doesn't hold I'd say it still isn't time to fully call it, but it'd be time to accept we're in uncharted territory as far as cycle structure. The first chance for reversal wouldn't be until 75k and that's hopeful. I'd say 72k minimum and a tough road ahead. HTF closures below 70k -ish and we pack it up, which at this point doesn't even sound that bad tbh because this cycle has been a nightmare. 

That's pretty much it. $USDT.D is still the main thing drawing my focus and keeping lower on the table, see here (Needed the monthly close below the pink lines (4-3.95) but didn't get it (4.03). Not a single HTF close below relevant levels so far (weekly @ 3.8). 

The longer we jerk around in this range the more likely the first pink zone is hit, which would line up with a move toward current lows or slightly lower. 

$BTC.D seems to be extending its '2nd wind' rally which was identified in early Dec. here (with a 64% target. I still don't think this is likely, but it's obviously got at least another half percent left in the tank to fully take the HTF level and that absolutely wouldn't cover a dump past the current lows. 

Visually, a similar rally would move even higher toward 65-66% which would annihilate alts. This would probably align with USDT.D to the upper pink zone (5.5) and BTC to low 70s. Would undoubtedly be bear market conditions for everything that isn't BTC. 

The $TOTAL charts and $OTHERS all have in the ballpark of 7-15% to drop before the HTF outlook turns bearish, imo, and I'd say distinguishing this into either 7% or 15% would probably align with the mild and/or more severe cases outlined. 

As of now, I'd consider none of this as the most likely scenario, but I'd bet that we'll know with a lot more certainty if things are shaping up to go this route by the end of this month if not sooner. Like I said, give it about 2 weeks and things should be much clearer. 

That is all for now.