【セルインメイ】S&P500は5月は90％上昇？本当に黄金タイムはきているのか？
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[{'start': '0.480', 'end': '5.440', 'text': 'Hello everyone, this is Yu. Thank you for watching as always.\nThis time, I would like to'}, {'start': '5.440', 'end': '9.760', 'text': 'explain the theme of the S&P 500 being too strong.\nPlease watch until the end.'}, {'start': '9.760', 'end': '16.359', 'text': 'What you will learn from this video is the\nrecent movement of US stocks, the evaluation of the Trump administration in the US,'}, {'start': '16.359', 'end': '21.640', 'text': "and the notable events in May.\nNow, let's"}, {'start': '21.640', 'end': '28.359', 'text': "get into the main topic. First, let's\ntake a look at the recent trends in the US stock market."}, {'start': '28.359', 'end': '33.520', 'text': 'Here is a dollar-based\nnational chart of the major indexes. Going in order of return,'}, {'start': '33.520', 'end': '41.399', 'text': 'gold is up 25%,\nOrkan is down 0.4%, S&P 500 is down'}, {'start': '41.399', 'end': '49.039', 'text': '5.3%, F&P is\ndown 5.8%, and NASDA 100 is down 6.8%. It seems that'}, {'start': '49.039', 'end': '56.480', 'text': "gold's upward trend has leveled off a little.\nAnother thing that is attracting attention recently is the"}, {'start': '56.480', 'end': '62.840', 'text': 'bottoming out of the stock index. Orkan is on the\nverge of entering positive territory for the first time in a year, and F&'}, {'start': '62.840', 'end': '68.960', 'text': 'P is recovering strongly from the bottom due to the Trump shock. The\nS&P 500 has'}, {'start': '68.960', 'end': '74.479', 'text': "not yet regained its April 2nd base, but  I'm sure there are many people who\nfelt that the stock price was stronger than they expected. Some"}, {'start': '74.479', 'end': '81.400', 'text': 'people were especially surprised by the stock price movement on April 30th.'}, {'start': '81.400', 'end': '89.000', 'text': 'What I mean is that this is the\nfirst quarterly real GDP in the United States, which was released on April 30th.'}, {'start': '89.000', 'end': '95.920', 'text': 'As a result, it\nrecorded negative growth for the first time in 2022, and the'}, {'start': '95.920', 'end': '100.960', 'text': 'growth rate was 1.1% higher than the previous year. Although'}, {'start': '100.960', 'end': '108.320', 'text': 'this indicator, which at first glance appears negative, showed a temporary increase in stock prices after the trading avoidance on April 30th, the\nimpact'}, {'start': '108.320', 'end': '116.479', 'text': 'was limited. The reason for this is that the negative\npreliminary figure was evaluated as being due to temporary factors such as an increase in corporate stock prices and an increase in imports from outside the United States. If you'}, {'start': '123.119', 'end': '128.800', 'text': 'look at the actual stock price chart for April 30th, you can\nclearly see the change in investor psychology.'}, {'start': '128.800', 'end': '135.160', 'text': 'This is a 5-minute chart of the S&P 500.\nImmediately after the preliminary GDP figure was'}, {'start': '135.160', 'end': '142.000', 'text': 'released, stock prices fell sharply at the opening, but they bottomed\nout around 11pm Japan time and then'}, {'start': '142.000', 'end': '148.440', 'text': 'rose steadily towards the close, eventually ending up\n0.11% higher than the previous day.'}, {'start': '148.440', 'end': '154.239', 'text': 'Looking at this movement, the market  It seems like there\nis a fair amount of optimism about the recession. The preliminary'}, {'start': '154.239', 'end': '160.319', 'text': 'GDP figures\nwere negative, but the'}, {'start': '160.319', 'end': '167.440', 'text': 'important things to look at are indicators like personal consumption and private capital investment. I think the'}, {'start': '167.440', 'end': '172.879', 'text': 'real hurdle for whether we can be optimistic about US stocks going forward will\nbe the second quarter GDP.'}, {'start': '172.879', 'end': '180.920', 'text': 'On the other hand, when compared to global stock prices,\nUS stocks are still in the red. This is a'}, {'start': '180.920', 'end': '186.720', 'text': 'ranking of ETF returns by country over the past month. You can see\nat a glance which countries have been doing well. There'}, {'start': '186.720', 'end': '192.120', 'text': 'is a lot of volume, so it may be\nsmall and hard to see, but the'}, {'start': '192.120', 'end': '197.120', 'text': 'area surrounded by a red frame is the performance of the US. It has been\nenlarged on the right,'}, {'start': '197.120', 'end': '204.519', 'text': 'and the return ranking for the month is\n-1.49%, which is a'}, {'start': '204.519', 'end': '211.319', 'text': 'solid result, ranking 40th out of 45 countries.\nLooking at this, US stocks are still'}, {'start': '211.319', 'end': '217.959', 'text': 'feeling the effects of the Trump shock, while\nOrkan and VT, which allow you to diversify your investments globally, continue to'}, {'start': '217.959', 'end': '224.360', 'text': "perform better than the S&P.\nNext, I'd like to"}, {'start': '224.360', 'end': '229.920', 'text': 'show you some interesting data. In the 100 days\nsince the US president took office, the'}, {'start': '229.920', 'end': '234.159', 'text': 'S&P 500  This shows\nhow the stock market has performed.'}, {'start': '234.159', 'end': '242.400', 'text': "Looking at this, Trump's performance\nwas -7.3%, the"}, {'start': '242.400', 'end': '247.760', 'text': "second worst after President Nixon's performance in 1973."}, {'start': '247.760', 'end': '253.760', 'text': 'Looking at past anomalies, it was said that\nstock prices would rise after a presidential election unless something extraordinary happened, but'}, {'start': '253.760', 'end': '260.400', 'text': 'this time something extraordinary\nseems to have happened. It is said that Nixon was the most unpopular president in history,'}, {'start': '260.400', 'end': '265.440', 'text': 'but if Trump continues to run wild,'}, {'start': '265.440', 'end': '272.720', 'text': 'he may take the title of the worst president in the market.\nIn addition, we will look at the'}, {'start': '272.720', 'end': '279.280', 'text': 'Consumer Confidence and Expectations Index, which is the most important reason why Americans are starting to look down on Trump.'}, {'start': '279.280', 'end': '285.960', 'text': 'These are numerical representations of how\naverage American consumers feel about the current economic situation and'}, {'start': '285.960', 'end': '292.639', 'text': 'future prospects.\nLooking at this, consumer confidence on the left is at its'}, {'start': '292.639', 'end': '301.240', 'text': 'lowest level in five years, and the index on the right, which shows\nconsumer expectations for economic uninvestment over the next six months, is'}, {'start': '301.240', 'end': '307.680', 'text': 'also at its lowest in 14 years.\nThese disastrous figures clearly show how'}, {'start': '307.680', 'end': '315.000', 'text': "unpopular the Trump administration's trade policy is. If things\ncontinue as they are, the middle class will likely fall.  It is"}, {'start': '315.000', 'end': '321.560', 'text': "unlikely that he will be able to fight the election. Furthermore,\nTrump's recent statements have not been as bullish as he used to be."}, {'start': '321.560', 'end': '327.680', 'text': 'According to a Bloomberg article dated May 1, Trump admitted that his'}, {'start': '327.680', 'end': '333.520', 'text': 'efforts entail great political risks, and that unless he\nchanges his image regarding the tax cuts, he could'}, {'start': '333.520', 'end': '340.960', 'text': "lose the majority in next year's midterm elections. He has not"}, {'start': '340.960', 'end': '346.720', 'text': 'wavered in his stance that the tax cuts are correct, but losing power will mean nothing, so it seems likely that the'}, {'start': '346.720', 'end': '352.080', 'text': 'instability that Trump himself has caused will not'}, {'start': '352.080', 'end': '358.800', 'text': "last long. Next, let's look\nat the hit map for the past month of the S&P 500."}, {'start': '358.800', 'end': '365.600', 'text': 'As you can see, tech services in the upper left have\nrisen in April, with'}, {'start': '365.600', 'end': '373.560', 'text': 'Netflix up 22%, Palantir up\n48%, services up 22%, and'}, {'start': '373.560', 'end': '379.120', 'text': 'Crowdstrike up 24%.\nValantir is not included in FANGPLUS,'}, {'start': '379.120', 'end': '384.360', 'text': "but these stocks have performed well,\nso FANGPLUS's recovery is likely to be good."}, {'start': '384.360', 'end': '390.800', 'text': 'On the other hand,\nenergy-related stocks such as ExxonMobil,'}, {'start': '390.800', 'end': '396.639', 'text': 'ChevronCorp, and Phillips are in quite a dangerous position.\nEnergy company stock prices have recorded double-digit declines in one month, and'}, {'start': '396.639', 'end': '403.599', 'text': 'energy-related\nETFs have fallen by about 13.6% in one month. The'}, {'start': '403.599', 'end': '411.280', 'text': 'background to this is the sharp decline in crude oil prices due to concerns about the state of the global economy, which has led to a slump in'}, {'start': '411.280', 'end': '417.400', 'text': 'oil and gas company stock prices.\nIn fact, the poor performance of the energy sector has'}, {'start': '417.400', 'end': '423.720', 'text': 'led to the worst monthly return since 2011. When crude oil prices'}, {'start': '423.720', 'end': '429.039', 'text': 'fall, corporate profits also fall, which\nincreases the risk for investors.'}, {'start': '429.039', 'end': '435.199', 'text': 'On the other hand, if we apply this to everyday life,\ngasoline prices will become cheaper, which may be'}, {'start': '435.199', 'end': '442.120', 'text': 'good news for people who own cars.\nAnother thing to keep in mind when looking at the recent trends in individual stocks is the'}, {'start': '442.120', 'end': '448.720', 'text': 'announcement of corporate financial results.\nGoogle announced its financial results on April 24th, with a'}, {'start': '448.720', 'end': '456.120', 'text': '46% increase in net profits and\nstrong online advertising. Microsoft'}, {'start': '456.120', 'end': '462.599', 'text': 'announced its results on May 1st, and sales also\nincreased by 13%. It'}, {'start': '462.599', 'end': '469.080', 'text': 'appears that the cloud service Adiwool continues to perform well. Meta\nalso announced its results on May 1st, and sales'}, {'start': '469.080', 'end': '475.400', 'text': 'exceeded analyst expectations and\nare showing strong performance. As you can see, financial results are going well.  This'}, {'start': '475.400', 'end': '481.800', 'text': 'directly leads to a rise in stock prices, and\nin the past few days, these big techs have been'}, {'start': '481.800', 'end': '489.039', 'text': 'driving up the S&P 500 and other indexes.\nNow, May is upon us, and it is'}, {'start': '489.039', 'end': '494.080', 'text': 'said to be a good month seasonally. There\nhave been declines in sell-in mains,'}, {'start': '494.080', 'end': '500.800', 'text': 'but looking at past statistics, this May\nhas a high rate of ending with an increase.'}, {'start': '500.800', 'end': '507.800', 'text': 'This shows the monthly decline rate of the S&P 500\nas a 10-year average, and over the past 10 years, there has been a'}, {'start': '507.800', 'end': '515.360', 'text': '90% chance of an increase.\nThe average decline rate is plus 1.2%. Even in the'}, {'start': '515.360', 'end': '522.000', 'text': '2020 coronavirus shock and the\n2022 interest rate hike phase, the decline rate has'}, {'start': '522.000', 'end': '527.640', 'text': 'been positive, so I\nthink this is a reassuring factor in the recent market.'}, {'start': '527.640', 'end': '535.000', 'text': 'Well, this is just past statistics, and it is of no'}, {'start': '535.000', 'end': '541.279', 'text': 'use in a market where stock prices can go up or down with just one word from Trump, as in the recent market, but it may be good to keep\nin mind that this is a historically strong month.'}, {'start': '541.279', 'end': '547.240', 'text': 'Finally, this May is a month filled with events that investors should be paying attention to.'}, {'start': '547.240', 'end': '554.040', 'text': 'First, watch this video.  The\nApril labor market statistics will be released on May 2nd, and'}, {'start': '554.040', 'end': '561.360', 'text': "this is an important indicator of the labor market's trend,\nso it is attracting attention as a way to predict the future of the economy. If the GDP"}, {'start': '561.360', 'end': '568.680', 'text': 'released on April 30th is\nbad, stock prices may have already'}, {'start': '568.680', 'end': '574.200', 'text': 'factored in the results and the impact may be limited,\nbut volatility will be large,'}, {'start': '574.200', 'end': '581.480', 'text': 'so caution is required. The FOMC is scheduled for May 67th, and\nthis time the'}, {'start': '581.480', 'end': '586.680', 'text': 'production interest rate is expected to remain unchanged,\nso there may not be many surprises,'}, {'start': '586.680', 'end': '593.519', 'text': "but depending on Chairman Powell's comments, the\nmarket may move significantly. Also,"}, {'start': '593.519', 'end': '601.040', 'text': 'April retail sales and the producer\nprice index (PPI) will be announced on May 15th, and the'}, {'start': '601.040', 'end': '608.760', 'text': 'number of new home sales will be announced on May 23rd.\nAll of these are factors that will predict the future of consumption and the economy,'}, {'start': '608.760', 'end': '614.200', 'text': 'so it is important to\nremember that stock prices are likely to move significantly around these times. So, in'}, {'start': '614.200', 'end': '621.240', 'text': 'this article, I have explained the recent\ntrends in the US stock market, the evaluation of the Trump administration,'}, {'start': '621.240', 'end': '627.920', 'text': 'and notable events in May. The\nS&P 500 has been quite  The market'}, {'start': '627.920', 'end': '634.240', 'text': 'is doing well and the uncertainty caused by the Trump tax has cleared up,\nso there is an optimistic mood in the market, but I personally do not recommend being'}, {'start': '634.240', 'end': '641.000', 'text': 'overly complacent or investing beyond your risk tolerance.'}, {'start': '641.000', 'end': '646.440', 'text': 'When I watch YouTube, I see a lot of\nheadlines like "The next few months and years will be a golden time," but I think it would be easier mentally to just steadily save money every month with index funds like'}, {'start': '646.440', 'end': '651.839', 'text': 'Orkan or S&P 500.'}, {'start': '651.839', 'end': '658.720', 'text': "I personally think that it's"}, {'start': '658.720', 'end': '663.839', 'text': 'best to continue investing at your own pace without pushing yourself too hard,\nso I hope this'}, {'start': '663.839', 'end': '669.279', 'text': 'video will be helpful in catching the latest trends.'}, {'start': '669.279', 'end': '673.959', 'text': 'Thank you for watching until the end.\nIf you found this video helpful,'}, {'start': '673.959', 'end': '679.120', 'text': 'please subscribe to my channel and\nrate it highly. I also'}, {'start': '679.120', 'end': '683.639', 'text': 'look forward to your questions and opinions in the comments section. I would like to\ncontinue to provide better information based on your feedback,'}, {'start': '683.639', 'end': '688.440', 'text': 'so I hope you will continue to support me.'}, {'start': '688.440', 'end': '694.200', 'text': 'See you in the next video. Thank you very much.'}]