An update from the 12News Weather Impact Center
12NewsNow
[{'start': '0.009', 'end': '1.000', 'text': "Evening Southeast Texas. Hope you are doing well. We're gonna take a look, an in-depth look at what we're expecting over the next 7 days across southeast Texas as, uh, we'll be watching a cold front, some drier air, and then a return to a wet weather pattern. Uh, next week, right now this is what we're expecting over the course of the next, uh, few days. Showers and storms look likely as we head towards Friday afternoon in the lakes area. Those will drift southwards and affect the triangle we think, uh, towards the evening hours and, uh, much of the night, uh, tomorrow night, and that will open the door to some cooler weather as we head towards Saturday afternoon, Sunday into Monday. Now Saturday, election day may have a few leftover showers in the morning, but by the. If we're lucky you may see some sun and then that means that Sunday and Monday of next week, uh, the mornings will be in the 50s, mid to upper 50s across the board, and that means highs around 80 with low humidity, abundant sunshine gonna make it feel pretty good across the area. However, as we head towards Tuesday, Wednesday, maybe Thursday of next week, looking at, uh, scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms returning the forecast, some modeling wants to try to bring in another. Cold front as we head towards uh maybe Friday of next week. Otherwise on your allergy report, everybody's really having to deal with this, but, uh, moderate levels of uh tree pollen, weed pollen, grass and mold continue across southeast Texas. Otherwise, here's what we're expecting in Beaumont now I think it may be a little less there's about a 30 to 40% coverage of late afternoon, uh, showers and storms we'll go with highs of 84, partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Going to be a breezy day. Modeling shows, uh, quiet morning and then as we head towards the late afternoon hours those rain chances start inching up. I think it's gonna be warmer than that 81 or 82. I think that's a little too cool, so I disagree with the modeling, it could be that, but again, we expect, uh, partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies and then those showers and storms depending on how quickly they drop south, we may have to change our rain chances up or down depending on how fast that line does move in from uh. The lakes area and then for the lakes area maybe a little too warm here but we're feeling pretty good about that 80 to 90% coverage of showers and storms. This is gonna be after about 3 p.m. tomorrow afternoon. So there's a chance you could hit about 85 before those uh showers and storms really start cranking as you can see, uh, towards the, uh, late afternoon, mid to late afternoon hours, uh, things really start, uh, cranking up towards the lakes area. I think it's gonna be warmer than the lower areas. I think that's too cool. So we're gonna take a look at Futurecast. And uh this is one of the several models that we have to uh put together our forecast. Suly flow continues off the Gulf of Mexico. Big storms over to central Texas over towards Lake Buchanan they had baseball size hail earlier, uh, the last 15 minutes or so. I think all that severe weather is gonna stay off towards our west, so we're gonna see increasing cloudiness as the night wears on. And it's possible we may get into the mid to upper 60s, uh, in the lakes area. I think we'll stay in the low to mid 70s here in the triangle otherwise, uh, as we head towards tomorrow. You got a yard to tackle tomorrow or some activity tomorrow outdoors get it done early because after about 2 or 3 o'clock in the afternoon we all start seeing showers and storms lining up into the lakes area. There is a very small chance that it could be severe, not tornatic if we see anything, it would be hail and damaging winds, but, uh, I think that's not gonna be the case here in the triangle now as we were on into supper time. Uh, you could see those thunderstorms really ramping up in the lakes area. Not how those temperatures cool in the 60s, so that's a real possibility too, excuse me. And then those showers and storms will slowly head south towards the triangle where they could, uh, uh, ramp up again as we head towards, uh, later, uh, Friday evening as that front pushes on into the area. I'll show you in just a second. So as we were forecasting only a 20% coverage across the area today, that didn't even materialize. It was a dry day across southeast Texas. The thunderstorm activity last night, as we said, probably wouldn't make it to the triangle and guess what, it didn't. Otherwise it's been a dry day across the triangle, as you can see there's no disturbances all this green certain. Amounts of varying amounts of moisture in the atmosphere. OK, what we're looking at are disturbances. These are disturbances. See that red right there? Those are disturbances that create motion upward motion in the atmosphere when you have the motions in the air want to move up that helps produce a thunderstorm activity, OK? I guarantee, but that's the way it looks and as you can see, moisture increases across our area we go up the scale. Plentiful moisture plus a series of upper level disturbances that's gonna cause the air to be buoyant so it's gonna be unstable it's gonna be uncapped and then with a lifting mechanism surface boundary that cold front coming in. Uh, late tomorrow night and probably Saturday morning it's gonna be a focus for shower and thunderstorm activities so I feel very confident that we're gonna see a good coverage of showers and storms across Southeast Texas, uh, Friday afternoon late and into Saturday night and probably by Saturday afternoon all the rain's gonna be out of here. Look what happens. All the disturbances go by and look at the dry air, very low. Amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, so the humidity is going to really drop as we head towards Sunday and into Monday and that means chilly mornings, lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs upper 70s to lower 80s gonna feel really nice, uh, as we head towards uh Sunday into Monday. It's one of those days where you can go outside and not just immediately. Start sweating and be covered with sweat. gonna be enjoyable, but that's gonna only last a couple of days because, uh, it looks like a pretty good chance of thunderstorm activity as we head towards Tuesday and Wednesday. So in your coastal marine forecast tomorrow, the boating conditions are looking fair but not great with slightly choppy seas around 2 to 3 ft in the south wind at 10 to 15 knots. Our forecast. tonight there's a chance we could see lows dropping as cool as the mid to upper 60s and uh probably a little bit of fog under mostly cloudy skies here in the triangle, uh, probably the low to mid 70s. I'm not expecting any rain here in the triangle or in inland Southeast Texas now tomorrow it all depends upon the timing, uh, the speed of the line of showers and thunderstorms as we work on into tomorrow afternoon. So roughly 3. p.m. you could get up to about 8384, 85 ahead of the storms that will certainly make the atmosphere unstable. So we'll go with an 80% coverage of late, mid to late afternoon showers and storms. Then those thunderstorms will be dropping on off towards the south as we head towards the evening. So a 30, maybe 40% coverage may not get that much here in the triangle until the evening hours. That's when we expect the rains really to move on in. Uh, towards, uh, Jefferson and Orange County, I think we'll get up to 84 tomorrow afternoon here in the triangle. So we'll go to 70, 80, maybe 90% coverage. We'll take another look at it tomorrow, but, uh, pretty good chance of rain and thunderstorms here in the triangle. That's what this forecast is all about. And as you can see, look at the showers and storms dropping. That's good 70, 80, 90 100% coverage of rain coming up here in the triangle coming up tomorrow night and Saturday morning, so it's moving pretty quickly, so don't expect any flooding concerns, but a quick half an inch to 1 inch, maybe an inch and a half possible uh through this go round and as you can see. This is at 7 a.m. so the rains will be out of here certainly by noon time, so it's not gonna be an all day event as far as the rains on election day, and I think we'll probably be seeing a little bit of sun, uh coming up Saturday afternoon, so not gonna be a washout and we'll be certainly looking at a pretty good, uh, 3 quarters of the weekend. So we'll give it a 30% coverage coming up on Saturday morning and again maybe a little bit of sun. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Look at the north winds and then Sunday and Monday mornings, uh, we'll go with, uh, temperatures in the mid to upper 50s uh across the area. By the way, the records are the upper 40s, so we've done this many times before. This is not unusual. 49 is the record. So, uh, as you can see, uh, we're gonna be forecasting mid to upper 50s, 53, 54 up in the lakes and mid to upper 50s here in the triangle. Uh, low humidity, lots of sun coming up on Sunday and Monday afternoon, a real treat. Now long range modeling has come in a lot wetter today, Tuesday and Wednesday, just not gonna go. The models have not done well lately, so not gonna go, uh, gangbusters on, uh, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this far out because it could certainly change, and that's how modeling works. Um, I think, uh, 40 to 50% coverage is reasonable at this time, but I'll just say this modeling is a lot wetter. It shows a good 100% coverage both Tuesday and Wednesday, couple of inches certainly possible that will knock, uh, high temperatures down into the lower 80s, and those lows will remain in the 70s across our area. So that's the way it's looking at uh at this time and we'll. Take another look if you're just joining us in your weather headlines, we do expect a good chance of shower and thunderstorm activity as we head towards, uh, Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes through. We're expecting lows in the 50s Sunday and Monday morning, and, uh, may need a jacket or something on your arms. Beautiful afternoon Sunday and Monday with low humidity and abundant sunshine. And wet weather returns as we head towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. No good news on the allergy report, at least it's not high at moderate levels across our area right now. Tree, weed, grass, and mold at moderate levels. Tree pollen mainly due to, uh, pecan trees otherwise. Here in Beaumont we're expecting about a 30, maybe as much as a 40% coverage coming up on Friday. I think we could do 8384 coming up tomorrow and the modeling, I just think is too cool as far as high temperatures ahead of those storms. It's not gonna get here till after 3 o'clock, so 83 seems reasonable and maybe 84. And then for the lakes area again, uh, I think it's doable that we get to about 8384, 85 up in the lakes area. We'll go with the 80-90% coverage of showers and storms, but after about 2 or 3 o'clock in the afternoon, those showers and storms will be working in, uh, from the lakes area and move south towards the triangle. So tonight, looking at a quiet night, temperatures may get into the mid to upper 60s, lakes lower and middle 70s in the triangle. Abundant cloud cover is expected, but quiet weather overnight. And through the first half of the day tomorrow, so as I was saying earlier, if you've got a yard to tackle tomorrow or something like that, get it done early because after about uh 02 3 o'clock in the afternoon, radar will be lighting up, uh, as far as the lakes area as showers. Storms will begin working in from the north and again everything's gonna be moving from north to south coming up tomorrow and as you can see pretty good coverage, uh, good 80-90% coverage, and again some of these cells could be rather strong tomorrow if if they do go severe, which I think is. It is unlikely but not impossible. Uh, uh, cell or two could have some damaging winds or hail, but, uh, tornadoes are not gonna be an issue tomorrow. So we'll put this into motion then as you can see, everything is gonna be sinking south as we head towards the evening hours here in the triangle. So the rain's gonna be coming from the north tomorrow. Otherwise, uh, as we were talking about yesterday, uh, we didn't expect. Much as far as uh shower and thunderstorm activity today, and that's exactly what happened. There was we have moisture but there's nothing to cause uh the showers and storms to develop. There no there were no disturbances and there were no, uh, cold fronts or anything like that on the way. Now that's gonna change as we head towards tomorrow afternoon. We have plentiful moisture. See the scale here. As you can see, lots of moisture, all these red blobs, those are disturbances that cause lift in the atmosphere, an uncapped, an unstable atmosphere, plus a cold front. So 4 or 5 different variables all pointing to a good chance of shower and thunderstorm activity. The front comes through Saturday morning early and look at all this dry air. When the air is dry, we we use brown colors when there's lots of moisture in the atmosphere, it's green. And that's what this is saying. It's very dry as we head towards Sunday on the Gulf tomorrow looking at slightly choppy seas, around 2 to 3 ft are expected. Uh, looks like southeasterly and south winds at 10 to 15 knots. Water temperature 82. High tide at 9:42 a.m. So our forecast tonight calls for mostly cloudy skies. There could be a little patchy fog as the winds will go calm, uh, up in the lakes area, mid to upper 60s there. Sillsby, Lumberton, about 70, 71, no rain. Expected with you overnight and then for the triangle we'll go with lows in the lower and middle 70s 76 Port Arthur back over to Sabine Pass Finnet about 74. Then tomorrow it's all about how fast that line develops now what I've shown you modeling, this is, this is all good to see that but again once the. Thunderstorm activity develops on radar modeling usually does a lot better, so with an 80%, 80-90% coverage in the lakes area, I may be a little bit warm, 83, 84, maybe 85% ahead of those storms after about 3 p.m. up in the lakes area and then uh 50% coverage inland Southeast Texas. That's Coons back over to Bunna and Lumberton. And then a 30 to 40% coverage here in the triangles the storms will be working in from the north. So as I was saying that uh 70, 80 to 90% coverage here in the triangle as those storms will be working in from the lakes area, good coverage here in the triangle, but as we head towards Saturday morning at. a.m. most of the activity will be out of here. I may have to lower rain chances right now. I have a 30% coverage on election day, and it does mean that uh we may see some sun coming up by the afternoon hours as you can see there Sunday and Monday mornings look great. Uh, if you like cool weather, we could see lows into the 50s, mid to upper 50s, coming up Sunday and Monday mornings. Lots of sun, low humidity, really looking nice, a real treat for early A or early May, I should say, uh, Sunday and Monday, and then Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week looking at, uh, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could be locally heavy rainfall. Hope you and your family have a great night."}]