Can Trump Really Fire the Fed Chair? Why Markets Are Panicking Over Powell? Where will the money go?
Wally Global
[{'start': '0.140', 'end': '2.320', 'text': 'Hi everyone, welcome to Wally Global.'}, {'start': '2.780', 'end': '4.620', 'text': "In today's video we're diving into a big"}, {'start': '4.620', 'end': '5.960', 'text': 'question shaking the markets.'}, {'start': '6.340', 'end': '8.620', 'text': 'Can Donald Trump actually fire the chair of'}, {'start': '8.620', 'end': '9.380', 'text': 'the Federal Reserve?'}, {'start': '9.720', 'end': '12.820', 'text': "We'll explore the legal limits, economic consequences and"}, {'start': '12.820', 'end': '15.140', 'text': 'what this means for the future of US'}, {'start': '15.140', 'end': '17.740', 'text': 'monetary policy and global investor confidence.'}, {'start': '18.180', 'end': '20.400', 'text': 'If you enjoy clear and concise analysis of'}, {'start': '20.400', 'end': '22.700', 'text': "global affairs, don't forget to like this video,"}, {'start': '23.040', 'end': '25.080', 'text': 'subscribe to Wally Global and hit the bell'}, {'start': '25.080', 'end': '26.880', 'text': 'icon so you never miss an update.'}, {'start': '27.460', 'end': '28.820', 'text': 'Feel free to share your thoughts in the'}, {'start': '28.820', 'end': '31.100', 'text': "comments and forward this video to anyone who'd"}, {'start': '31.100', 'end': '33.780', 'text': 'enjoy thoughtful insights on international events.'}, {'start': '34.240', 'end': '35.420', 'text': "Let's go to the video."}, {'start': '35.840', 'end': '38.360', 'text': 'Trump threw another tantrum, now because the Federal'}, {'start': '38.360', 'end': '40.320', 'text': 'Reserve has not cut interest rates, so he'}, {'start': '40.320', 'end': '41.760', 'text': 'said he wants to fire a Fed chairman'}, {'start': '41.760', 'end': '44.120', 'text': 'Powell, threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '44.120', 'end': '46.480', 'text': 'with a history of 100 years scaring the'}, {'start': '46.480', 'end': '48.840', 'text': "market, whether it's US stocks, US bonds or"}, {'start': '48.840', 'end': '51.020', 'text': 'the US dollar, all fell and those funds'}, {'start': '51.020', 'end': '52.040', 'text': 'rushed to safe assets.'}, {'start': '52.640', 'end': '54.500', 'text': 'Why is the market so afraid of Trump'}, {'start': '54.500', 'end': '55.060', 'text': 'firing Powell?'}, {'start': '55.260', 'end': '57.220', 'text': 'If it happens, what impact will it have'}, {'start': '57.220', 'end': '58.980', 'text': 'on stocks, bonds and foreign exchange?'}, {'start': '59.300', 'end': '61.160', 'text': 'And where did these funds go because of'}, {'start': '61.160', 'end': '61.620', 'text': 'this event?'}, {'start': '62.000', 'end': '63.500', 'text': "First, let's talk about what happened."}, {'start': '63.840', 'end': '65.960', 'text': 'Last week, Trump attacked the Federal Reserve chairman'}, {'start': '65.960', 'end': '68.100', 'text': 'Powell again, saying he was too late, calling'}, {'start': '68.100', 'end': '69.180', 'text': 'others a major loser.'}, {'start': '69.660', 'end': '71.240', 'text': 'What he meant was that Trump thinks there'}, {'start': '71.240', 'end': '73.240', 'text': 'is no inflation at all now, so why'}, {'start': '73.240', 'end': '74.680', 'text': "hasn't Powell cut interest rates?"}, {'start': '75.040', 'end': '77.080', 'text': 'Europe has already cut rates seven times, so'}, {'start': '77.080', 'end': '79.240', 'text': "it's obvious that Jordan Powell is playing politics."}, {'start': '79.240', 'end': '81.500', 'text': 'So then Trump wanted to fire this Federal'}, {'start': '81.500', 'end': '82.120', 'text': 'Reserve chairman.'}, {'start': '82.640', 'end': '84.100', 'text': 'After this news came out over the weekend,'}, {'start': '84.420', 'end': '85.960', 'text': 'the market was very worried and in an'}, {'start': '85.960', 'end': '86.320', 'text': 'uproar.'}, {'start': '86.580', 'end': '88.160', 'text': 'Then Trump came out to clarify saying he'}, {'start': '88.160', 'end': '90.440', 'text': "actually wouldn't fire Jerome Powell, but with him"}, {'start': '90.440', 'end': '92.400', 'text': 'changing his stance so quickly, he could change'}, {'start': '92.400', 'end': '93.160', 'text': 'back at any time.'}, {'start': '93.480', 'end': '94.880', 'text': 'If he really did fire the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '94.880', 'end': '96.540', 'text': 'chairman, what impact would it have?'}, {'start': '96.900', 'end': '98.720', 'text': 'Actually, Trump has said many times that he'}, {'start': '98.720', 'end': '99.860', 'text': 'wanted to fire Jerome Powell.'}, {'start': '100.240', 'end': '101.520', 'text': 'He mentioned it when he was president for'}, {'start': '101.520', 'end': '103.120', 'text': 'the first time, but the market got used'}, {'start': '103.120', 'end': '103.960', 'text': 'to his random statements.'}, {'start': '104.200', 'end': '106.420', 'text': 'So previously, whatever he said, the market would'}, {'start': '106.420', 'end': '106.680', 'text': 'ignore.'}, {'start': '107.020', 'end': '109.020', 'text': 'However, since the open day on April 2nd,'}, {'start': '109.200', 'end': '110.740', 'text': 'he really waged a tariff war on the'}, {'start': '110.740', 'end': '112.980', 'text': "entire world and even increased China's tariffs to"}, {'start': '112.980', 'end': '114.880', 'text': '60 percent, then to 80 percent, and then'}, {'start': '114.880', 'end': '116.480', 'text': 'to a certain percentage in the 80s range.'}, {'start': '116.720', 'end': '118.320', 'text': 'The market realized that when he goes mad,'}, {'start': '118.380', 'end': '119.160', 'text': 'he really follows through.'}, {'start': '119.320', 'end': '120.780', 'text': "So this time, when he said he's considering"}, {'start': '120.780', 'end': '122.640', 'text': 'how to fire Powell, investors are worried that'}, {'start': '122.640', 'end': '123.360', 'text': 'he really might do it.'}, {'start': '123.540', 'end': '125.560', 'text': 'But why would firing Jerome Powell be such'}, {'start': '125.560', 'end': '126.120', 'text': 'a bad thing?'}, {'start': '126.420', 'end': '128.500', 'text': 'Is it because this chairman is so capable'}, {'start': '128.500', 'end': '130.720', 'text': 'that without him, the whole team would fall'}, {'start': '130.720', 'end': '131.060', 'text': 'apart?'}, {'start': '131.460', 'end': '133.380', 'text': "No, this isn't about the person."}, {'start': '133.740', 'end': '136.580', 'text': "It's about a system, the entire American economic"}, {'start': '136.580', 'end': '136.960', 'text': 'system.'}, {'start': '137.340', 'end': '139.160', 'text': 'The responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to'}, {'start': '139.160', 'end': '140.800', 'text': 'maintain a stable economic environment.'}, {'start': '141.240', 'end': '143.320', 'text': 'How do they create this stable economic environment?'}, {'start': '143.460', 'end': '144.780', 'text': "It's through controlling interest rates."}, {'start': '145.100', 'end': '146.840', 'text': 'The so-called independence of the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '146.840', 'end': '149.000', 'text': 'means that when they decide on interest rates,'}, {'start': '149.180', 'end': '150.960', 'text': 'they should not and need not be influenced'}, {'start': '150.960', 'end': '152.600', 'text': 'by the president or political factors.'}, {'start': '152.880', 'end': '154.360', 'text': 'Their task is to ensure the long-term'}, {'start': '154.360', 'end': '156.280', 'text': 'economy of the United States is well managed.'}, {'start': '156.520', 'end': '158.540', 'text': 'If the president of the United States controls'}, {'start': '158.540', 'end': '160.940', 'text': 'the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve controls'}, {'start': '160.940', 'end': '163.620', 'text': 'interest rates, then the president can directly control'}, {'start': '163.620', 'end': '164.240', 'text': 'interest rates.'}, {'start': '164.540', 'end': '166.320', 'text': 'If that is the case, what impact would'}, {'start': '166.320', 'end': '168.060', 'text': 'it have on the long-term economic growth'}, {'start': '168.060', 'end': '170.580', 'text': 'of the United States, its inflation, and the'}, {'start': '170.580', 'end': '172.720', 'text': 'U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency?'}, {'start': '173.060', 'end': '175.500', 'text': 'The market is most concerned about these consequences.'}, {'start': '176.020', 'end': '177.220', 'text': 'What is the difference between the U.S.'}, {'start': '177.300', 'end': '179.380', 'text': 'president controlling interest rates and the central bank'}, {'start': '179.380', 'end': '180.840', 'text': 'independently controlling interest rates?'}, {'start': '181.140', 'end': '183.040', 'text': "You need to consider what everyone's goals are."}, {'start': '183.280', 'end': '186.000', 'text': 'The president or their party are politicians, and'}, {'start': '186.000', 'end': '187.520', 'text': 'their goal is to be re-elected.'}, {'start': '187.840', 'end': '189.300', 'text': "If it's the first term, they aim for"}, {'start': '189.300', 'end': '190.900', 'text': "a second term, and if it's already the"}, {'start': '190.900', 'end': '193.320', 'text': 'second term, like with Trump, they aim to'}, {'start': '193.320', 'end': '194.880', 'text': 'help their party win next time.'}, {'start': '194.940', 'end': '196.460', 'text': 'So how do you increase the chance of'}, {'start': '196.460', 'end': '196.700', 'text': 'winning?'}, {'start': '197.000', 'end': '199.320', 'text': 'Or conversely, how do you easily lose?'}, {'start': '199.720', 'end': '201.520', 'text': 'If the economy is bad, people have no'}, {'start': '201.520', 'end': '203.980', 'text': 'money, and people are unhappy, then naturally the'}, {'start': '203.980', 'end': '205.880', 'text': 'people will choose another direction next time.'}, {'start': '206.240', 'end': '208.280', 'text': 'So if the economy is good, people have'}, {'start': '208.280', 'end': '210.340', 'text': 'money, and they are happy, it becomes easier'}, {'start': '210.340', 'end': '211.340', 'text': 'for them to be re-elected.'}, {'start': '211.440', 'end': '213.800', 'text': 'Because there is a presidential election every four'}, {'start': '213.800', 'end': '216.080', 'text': 'years, and if you count the midterm elections'}, {'start': '216.080', 'end': '218.640', 'text': 'every two years, it makes the speaker or'}, {'start': '218.640', 'end': '221.160', 'text': 'the president very focused on how Americans view'}, {'start': '221.160', 'end': '223.700', 'text': 'him in the short term, creating an incentive.'}, {'start': '224.340', 'end': '226.720', 'text': 'Before each election, he would make people happier,'}, {'start': '227.060', 'end': '229.300', 'text': 'and if he controls the central bank, what'}, {'start': '229.300', 'end': '229.840', 'text': 'can he do?'}, {'start': '230.240', 'end': '232.180', 'text': 'He can lower interest rates or print money'}, {'start': '232.180', 'end': '233.080', 'text': 'before the election.'}, {'start': '233.440', 'end': '235.200', 'text': 'Imagine if interest rates fell back to zero'}, {'start': '235.200', 'end': '236.780', 'text': 'and the stock market rose by several dozen'}, {'start': '236.780', 'end': '237.780', 'text': 'percentage points each year.'}, {'start': '238.080', 'end': '240.040', 'text': 'Everyone would be so But this is like'}, {'start': '240.040', 'end': '240.640', 'text': 'taking drugs.'}, {'start': '240.880', 'end': '241.800', 'text': "It's a short-term high."}, {'start': '242.340', 'end': '244.560', 'text': 'If you overindulge, you will die sooner or'}, {'start': '244.560', 'end': '244.780', 'text': 'later.'}, {'start': '245.240', 'end': '248.220', 'text': 'In an uncontrolled environment, if only politicians decide'}, {'start': '248.220', 'end': '250.660', 'text': 'the interest rates, their priority is to get'}, {'start': '250.660', 'end': '252.640', 'text': 're-elected for the next term, not the'}, {'start': '252.640', 'end': '253.940', 'text': 'long-term health of America.'}, {'start': '254.300', 'end': '256.560', 'text': 'Because decades later, these people will have retired'}, {'start': '256.560', 'end': '258.700', 'text': "or passed away and won't care anymore."}, {'start': '259.019', 'end': '260.820', 'text': "No matter if it's a few years, four"}, {'start': '260.820', 'end': '262.680', 'text': 'years, or eight years, if they manage to'}, {'start': '262.680', 'end': '264.180', 'text': "go up to 12 years, it's even better."}, {'start': '264.540', 'end': '266.060', 'text': 'They will continue to distribute this poison.'}, {'start': '266.460', 'end': '268.700', 'text': 'Before every election, they lower interest rates and'}, {'start': '268.700', 'end': '270.880', 'text': 'print money to stimulate the economy, leading to'}, {'start': '270.880', 'end': '271.640', 'text': 'ever-growing bubbles.'}, {'start': '272.000', 'end': '273.980', 'text': 'Eventually, they are bound to burst, and when'}, {'start': '273.980', 'end': '275.520', 'text': 'they do, it will be catastrophic.'}, {'start': '275.840', 'end': '278.880', 'text': 'Conversely, if the Federal Reserve is independent, their'}, {'start': '278.880', 'end': '280.980', 'text': 'task is to reduce economic fluctuations.'}, {'start': '281.560', 'end': '283.540', 'text': 'When the economy is too weak, they stimulate'}, {'start': '283.540', 'end': '285.820', 'text': "it with measures, but when it's too strong,"}, {'start': '285.960', 'end': '287.840', 'text': 'they also apply brakes to slow it down.'}, {'start': '288.160', 'end': '291.340', 'text': 'This reduces economic fluctuations, so even in times'}, {'start': '291.340', 'end': '293.640', 'text': "of recession, the impact won't be as severe."}, {'start': '294.000', 'end': '295.640', 'text': 'Another point is that the market is very'}, {'start': '295.640', 'end': '296.640', 'text': 'concerned about inflation.'}, {'start': '297.120', 'end': '299.220', 'text': 'If Trump can indeed control interest rates, even'}, {'start': '299.220', 'end': '301.000', 'text': 'though the US is now facing inflation that'}, {'start': '301.000', 'end': '303.240', 'text': 'tariffs might bring about, if Trump really follows'}, {'start': '303.240', 'end': '305.320', 'text': 'through and cuts interest rates, it could cause'}, {'start': '305.320', 'end': '307.700', 'text': 'prices to rise rapidly, inflation could get out'}, {'start': '307.700', 'end': '309.820', 'text': 'of control, and the most frightening thing is'}, {'start': '309.820', 'end': '311.580', 'text': 'that the market could lose confidence that the'}, {'start': '311.580', 'end': '313.460', 'text': 'US can regain control over inflation.'}, {'start': '313.800', 'end': '316.060', 'text': 'In fact, controlling inflation is a confidence game.'}, {'start': '316.280', 'end': '317.920', 'text': 'Besides the Federal Reserve being able to raise'}, {'start': '317.920', 'end': '319.820', 'text': 'interest rates to slow down the economy and'}, {'start': '319.820', 'end': '321.900', 'text': 'lower inflation, whether it is successful or not'}, {'start': '321.900', 'end': '323.760', 'text': "also depends on the market's confidence in it."}, {'start': '324.020', 'end': '326.400', 'text': 'This includes how determined they are about this'}, {'start': '326.400', 'end': '326.700', 'text': 'task.'}, {'start': '327.080', 'end': '329.820', 'text': 'Historically, the US central bank has always prioritized'}, {'start': '329.820', 'end': '331.800', 'text': 'inflation, no matter how bad the economy gets.'}, {'start': '332.160', 'end': '334.700', 'text': 'For example, in the 1970s, they were determined'}, {'start': '334.700', 'end': '336.800', 'text': 'to endure short-term pain, even if it'}, {'start': '336.800', 'end': '338.960', 'text': 'meant a depression, to deal with inflation first.'}, {'start': '339.320', 'end': '341.080', 'text': 'Investors see the actions of the US Federal'}, {'start': '341.080', 'end': '342.340', 'text': 'Reserve and find them credible.'}, {'start': '342.780', 'end': '345.460', 'text': 'With this credibility, when the Federal Reserve says'}, {'start': '345.460', 'end': '347.760', 'text': 'their job is to keep inflation at 2%,'}, {'start': '347.760', 'end': '349.480', 'text': 'the market will believe them.'}, {'start': '350.540', 'end': '352.180', 'text': 'But if they are not firm enough and'}, {'start': '352.180', 'end': '354.360', 'text': 'merely state the task, yet every time the'}, {'start': '354.360', 'end': '356.920', 'text': 'economy weakens, they change stance and want to'}, {'start': '356.920', 'end': '359.660', 'text': 'save the economy first before tackling inflation, they'}, {'start': '359.660', 'end': '360.840', 'text': 'will lose credibility.'}, {'start': '361.340', 'end': '363.820', 'text': 'After a few failed attempts, people will question'}, {'start': '363.820', 'end': '366.520', 'text': 'whether they truly have enough determination to keep'}, {'start': '366.520', 'end': '368.440', 'text': 'inflation controlled at 2%.'}, {'start': '368.440', 'end': '371.540', 'text': 'If that president, not necessarily Trump, if any'}, {'start': '371.540', 'end': '374.160', 'text': 'president can control interest rates, and they can'}, {'start': '374.160', 'end': '376.700', 'text': 'only serve for 4 years, then their risk'}, {'start': '376.700', 'end': '379.240', 'text': '-reward will be more short-term, which might'}, {'start': '379.240', 'end': '381.600', 'text': 'lead them to prioritize the short-term economy'}, {'start': '381.600', 'end': '385.060', 'text': 'over long-term US inflation, thus losing the'}, {'start': '385.060', 'end': '386.280', 'text': "Federal Reserve's credibility."}, {'start': '386.880', 'end': '388.260', 'text': 'And why is this so important?'}, {'start': '388.580', 'end': '390.400', 'text': 'Because the bond market, that is the price'}, {'start': '390.400', 'end': '392.800', 'text': 'of bonds, is linked to inflation expectations.'}, {'start': '393.160', 'end': '395.280', 'text': 'If investors have confidence, no matter what happens'}, {'start': '395.280', 'end': '397.000', 'text': "in the short-term, whether it's the pandemic"}, {'start': '397.000', 'end': '399.180', 'text': 'or politics, the current inflation rate may be'}, {'start': '399.180', 'end': '401.660', 'text': 'compared to higher, but because the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '401.660', 'end': '403.800', 'text': 'has credibility, investors have confidence.'}, {'start': '404.120', 'end': '405.600', 'text': "Even if it's bad now, in the long"}, {'start': '405.600', 'end': '407.400', 'text': '-term, the Federal Reserve will have the same'}, {'start': '407.400', 'end': '409.880', 'text': 'determination and ability to bring the inflation rate'}, {'start': '409.880', 'end': '410.700', 'text': 'back to 2%.'}, {'start': '410.700', 'end': '412.740', 'text': 'So if you buy US Treasury bonds at'}, {'start': '412.740', 'end': '414.880', 'text': "4.5%, isn't that equivalent to a 2"}, {'start': '414.880', 'end': '415.940', 'text': '.5% net yield?'}, {'start': '416.120', 'end': '418.460', 'text': 'Because 4.5 minus 2 equals 2.5,'}, {'start': '418.500', 'end': '418.680', 'text': 'right?'}, {'start': '418.980', 'end': '421.460', 'text': 'But if confidence changes and you are no'}, {'start': '421.460', 'end': '423.460', 'text': 'longer certain you can control it, or now'}, {'start': '423.460', 'end': '425.420', 'text': 'it is up to the president, whose duty'}, {'start': '425.420', 'end': '427.900', 'text': 'is not to control it at 2%, do'}, {'start': '427.900', 'end': '429.620', 'text': 'you think the long-term inflation rate will'}, {'start': '429.620', 'end': '431.240', 'text': 'rise to 3% or 4%?'}, {'start': '431.540', 'end': '434.540', 'text': 'Then these 4.5% yield US bonds'}, {'start': '434.540', 'end': '436.920', 'text': 'if swapped for 4% inflation would only'}, {'start': '436.920', 'end': '439.060', 'text': 'actually yield 0.5%, right?'}, {'start': '439.440', 'end': '441.100', 'text': "Then it becomes unattractive, doesn't it?"}, {'start': '441.380', 'end': '443.240', 'text': 'Who would still buy it, only waiting for'}, {'start': '443.240', 'end': '444.440', 'text': 'the interest rate to rise again?'}, {'start': '444.580', 'end': '446.740', 'text': 'For example, if you think inflation is 4'}, {'start': '446.740', 'end': '448.520', 'text': '% and you want to expect inflation after'}, {'start': '448.520', 'end': '450.420', 'text': "to be 2.5, wouldn't you wait until"}, {'start': '450.420', 'end': '452.460', 'text': 'it rises to 6.5 before buying?'}, {'start': '452.780', 'end': '454.720', 'text': 'Even if the bond prices will fall, so'}, {'start': '454.720', 'end': '456.340', 'text': 'you saw after these news came out last'}, {'start': '456.340', 'end': '458.160', 'text': 'week, the prices of long-term US bonds'}, {'start': '458.160', 'end': '458.420', 'text': 'dropped.'}, {'start': '458.740', 'end': '460.380', 'text': 'The dollar fell again because the tariff war'}, {'start': '460.380', 'end': '462.160', 'text': 'has already made the market feel that Trump'}, {'start': '462.160', 'end': '464.080', 'text': "wants to change the entire world's trade system,"}, {'start': '464.400', 'end': '466.000', 'text': 'shifting the rules of the game from open'}, {'start': '466.000', 'end': '467.520', 'text': 'free trade to protectionism.'}, {'start': '467.740', 'end': '469.800', 'text': 'Now even the foundation of the US government'}, {'start': '469.800', 'end': '471.260', 'text': 'is something Trump wants to change.'}, {'start': '471.520', 'end': '473.060', 'text': 'He has also mentioned wanting to run for'}, {'start': '473.060', 'end': '475.100', 'text': 'a third term as president, although he might'}, {'start': '475.100', 'end': '476.880', 'text': "have been joking, but let's not worry about"}, {'start': '476.880', 'end': '477.140', 'text': 'that.'}, {'start': '477.420', 'end': '479.860', 'text': "But now there's talk about firing Powell and"}, {'start': '479.860', 'end': '482.120', 'text': "wanting to control the Federal Reserve's interest rate"}, {'start': '482.120', 'end': '483.260', 'text': 'decisions independently.'}, {'start': '483.500', 'end': '485.980', 'text': 'Then these investors have more doubts about the'}, {'start': '485.980', 'end': '488.180', 'text': 'entire system of the United States government and'}, {'start': '488.180', 'end': '488.820', 'text': 'its regulations.'}, {'start': '489.320', 'end': '491.320', 'text': 'Why has the US dollar become the global'}, {'start': '491.320', 'end': '492.280', 'text': 'reserve currency?'}, {'start': '492.540', 'end': '495.580', 'text': 'Besides extensive trade, one reason is its stability.'}, {'start': '495.880', 'end': '498.120', 'text': 'For decades it has set those rules and'}, {'start': '498.120', 'end': '500.140', 'text': "there haven't been any fundamental changes."}, {'start': '500.320', 'end': '502.700', 'text': 'So as a large economy, its system is'}, {'start': '502.700', 'end': '504.420', 'text': 'more stable than many other places.'}, {'start': '504.680', 'end': '506.780', 'text': 'But the recent events have made the market'}, {'start': '506.780', 'end': '509.060', 'text': 'worry that the United States is not as'}, {'start': '509.060', 'end': '511.200', 'text': 'stable as before, so the dollar has fallen.'}, {'start': '511.640', 'end': '514.240', 'text': 'And investors in US stocks are already worried'}, {'start': '514.240', 'end': '515.080', 'text': 'about its prospects.'}, {'start': '515.500', 'end': '517.400', 'text': "According to the Bank of America's fund managers"}, {'start': '517.400', 'end': '519.620', 'text': 'survey, half of the fund managers believe the'}, {'start': '519.620', 'end': '522.200', 'text': 'US economy will have a hard landing, which'}, {'start': '522.200', 'end': '523.920', 'text': 'is the highest level of concern in recent'}, {'start': '523.920', 'end': '524.280', 'text': 'years.'}, {'start': '524.480', 'end': '527.280', 'text': 'So the market is already very fragile and'}, {'start': '527.280', 'end': '529.460', 'text': 'adding more uncertainty leads to a drop in'}, {'start': '529.460', 'end': '531.960', 'text': 'US stocks by 3.1%. And where did'}, {'start': '531.960', 'end': '533.960', 'text': 'the funds go during this chaotic time?'}, {'start': '534.260', 'end': '536.880', 'text': 'To some assets that the market considers unrelated'}, {'start': '536.880', 'end': '537.600', 'text': 'to politics.'}, {'start': '538.020', 'end': '540.420', 'text': 'The first is gold, which has risen by'}, {'start': '540.420', 'end': '542.660', 'text': 'over 10% in the past few weeks.'}, {'start': '543.020', 'end': '545.800', 'text': 'Additionally, funds are also flowing towards digital gold,'}, {'start': '545.860', 'end': '546.540', 'text': 'namely bitcoin.'}, {'start': '546.920', 'end': '549.120', 'text': 'This is somewhat surprising because bitcoin has many'}, {'start': '549.120', 'end': '550.340', 'text': 'narratives and different stories.'}, {'start': '550.680', 'end': '552.240', 'text': 'Some people say it is a safe haven'}, {'start': '552.240', 'end': '554.020', 'text': 'asset, while others say it is a risky'}, {'start': '554.020', 'end': '554.340', 'text': 'asset.'}, {'start': '554.740', 'end': '556.280', 'text': 'Looking back at the last cycle, from the'}, {'start': '556.280', 'end': '558.380', 'text': 'pandemic in 2020 to the bear market in'}, {'start': '558.380', 'end': '561.300', 'text': '2022, its trend was that when stocks rose,'}, {'start': '561.480', 'end': '563.380', 'text': 'it rose, and when stocks fell, it fell.'}, {'start': '563.500', 'end': '565.160', 'text': 'So it is definitely a risky asset.'}, {'start': '565.380', 'end': '567.520', 'text': "But what's surprising is that recently, when the"}, {'start': '567.520', 'end': '569.540', 'text': 'US stock market fell, even the bond market'}, {'start': '569.540', 'end': '571.940', 'text': 'declined, bitcoin instead remained quite strong.'}, {'start': '572.180', 'end': '574.440', 'text': 'After all these events, on April 2nd, the'}, {'start': '574.440', 'end': '577.460', 'text': 'tariff war, the US banned more semiconductor exports,'}, {'start': '577.600', 'end': '579.480', 'text': 'and now Trump says he wants to fire'}, {'start': '579.480', 'end': '579.820', 'text': 'Powell.'}, {'start': '580.040', 'end': '583.380', 'text': 'However, bitcoin surprisingly rose back to $95,000,'}, {'start': '583.700', 'end': '585.560', 'text': 'even higher than its price during the tariff'}, {'start': '585.560', 'end': '587.980', 'text': 'war, so its recent price movements behave like'}, {'start': '587.980', 'end': '588.760', 'text': 'a hedging asset.'}, {'start': '588.760', 'end': '590.400', 'text': 'How will this story end?'}, {'start': '590.740', 'end': '592.620', 'text': 'Will Trump successfully fire Powell?'}, {'start': '592.820', 'end': '594.700', 'text': 'In fact, this is not the first time,'}, {'start': '594.820', 'end': '596.420', 'text': 'nor will it be the last, that a'}, {'start': '596.420', 'end': '598.540', 'text': 'US president tries to pressure the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '598.540', 'end': '599.560', 'text': 'to cut interest rates.'}, {'start': '599.940', 'end': '602.420', 'text': 'Fortunately, there are laws that protect the independence'}, {'start': '602.420', 'end': '604.560', 'text': 'of the Federal Reserve, making it not so'}, {'start': '604.560', 'end': '606.000', 'text': 'easy for Trump to fire Powell.'}, {'start': '606.180', 'end': '608.420', 'text': 'Even if he finds some legal loopholes, it'}, {'start': '608.420', 'end': '610.380', 'text': 'would eventually lead to a lengthy lawsuit, so'}, {'start': '610.380', 'end': '612.320', 'text': "in the short term, he can't push John"}, {'start': '612.320', 'end': '612.960', 'text': 'Powell out.'}, {'start': '613.060', 'end': '615.720', 'text': 'The court battle will actually conclude, and the'}, {'start': '615.720', 'end': '618.880', 'text': "Chairman's term will end next May, so I"}, {'start': '618.880', 'end': '620.360', 'text': "don't think there's a high chance of it"}, {'start': '620.360', 'end': '620.700', 'text': 'happening.'}, {'start': '621.180', 'end': '623.780', 'text': 'However, this event, like many of the recent'}, {'start': '623.780', 'end': '626.720', 'text': 'actions by Trump, has seriously damaged the credibility'}, {'start': '626.720', 'end': '628.000', 'text': 'of the United States.'}, {'start': '628.180', 'end': '630.300', 'text': 'Right now, we are in a very unstable'}, {'start': '630.300', 'end': '630.720', 'text': 'time.'}, {'start': '631.200', 'end': '633.620', 'text': "Trump's strategy seems to be like tearing down"}, {'start': '633.620', 'end': '635.700', 'text': 'the order built over the past few decades,'}, {'start': '636.100', 'end': '639.660', 'text': "whether it's trade, environmental protection, or geopolitical relationships,"}, {'start': '639.660', 'end': '642.040', 'text': 'and then putting it back together as he'}, {'start': '642.040', 'end': '642.360', 'text': 'likes.'}, {'start': '642.840', 'end': '644.940', 'text': 'Will what he assembles be better than before,'}, {'start': '645.220', 'end': '647.200', 'text': 'and what impact will this have on our'}, {'start': '647.200', 'end': '647.980', 'text': 'financial planning?'}, {'start': '648.400', 'end': '649.300', 'text': 'Thanks for watching, bye.'}]