Your guide to election day | The Daily Aus
The Daily Aus
[{'start': '0.080', 'end': '4.799', 'text': "Hello and welcome to the Daily Oz. I'm"}, {'start': '1.920', 'end': '7.359', 'text': "Billy Fitz Simons. I'm Zara Sidler. The"}, {'start': '4.799', 'end': '9.519', 'text': 'election is finally here. It is'}, {'start': '7.359', 'end': '12.559', 'text': "tomorrow, which means that we're at the"}, {'start': '9.519', 'end': '14.719', 'text': 'end of our politics 101 series. So, to'}, {'start': '12.559', 'end': '17.039', 'text': 'wrap up the week, we want to arm you'}, {'start': '14.719', 'end': '19.840', 'text': 'with all of the information you need to'}, {'start': '17.039', 'end': '21.920', 'text': 'make sense of election night itself. In'}, {'start': '19.840', 'end': '23.600', 'text': "this episode, we're going to do things a"}, {'start': '21.920', 'end': '25.600', 'text': "little bit differently and we're going"}, {'start': '23.600', 'end': '28.560', 'text': 'to take you through the number, the'}, {'start': '25.600', 'end': '31.079', 'text': 'words, the moment, and the time for you'}, {'start': '28.560', 'end': '33.760', 'text': 'to look out for come tomorrow'}, {'start': '31.079', 'end': '35.600', 'text': 'night. Yeah, this is something that we'}, {'start': '33.760', 'end': '38.079', 'text': 'developed, Billy, earlier in the week'}, {'start': '35.600', 'end': '40.160', 'text': 'when we hosted some Politics in the Pub'}, {'start': '38.079', 'end': '42.399', 'text': "events. And anyone that's listening that"}, {'start': '40.160', 'end': '44.480', 'text': 'attended those events, thank you. We'}, {'start': '42.399', 'end': '46.000', 'text': 'loved meeting you. Billy and I love'}, {'start': '44.480', 'end': '48.559', 'text': 'talking about politics. And the fact'}, {'start': '46.000', 'end': '50.800', 'text': 'that we got to do that in real life was'}, {'start': '48.559', 'end': '52.559', 'text': 'truly a pleasure with a Shiraz in hand.'}, {'start': '50.800', 'end': '54.640', 'text': 'With a Shiraz in hand. How could we'}, {'start': '52.559', 'end': '56.239', 'text': 'forget? But it is just I think a really'}, {'start': '54.640', 'end': '57.840', 'text': 'good framework to understand because'}, {'start': '56.239', 'end': '60.640', 'text': "there's so much going on in election"}, {'start': '57.840', 'end': '62.960', 'text': 'night. If you tune into one of the TV'}, {'start': '60.640', 'end': '64.960', 'text': "stations, there's like graphics thrown"}, {'start': '62.960', 'end': '66.880', 'text': 'around. There are words, the jargon,'}, {'start': '64.960', 'end': '68.320', 'text': 'like things people who pay attention'}, {'start': '66.880', 'end': '70.799', 'text': 'each and every day might not even'}, {'start': '68.320', 'end': '72.880', 'text': 'understand. And so this is a way to just'}, {'start': '70.799', 'end': '75.680', 'text': 'distill the information that you need to'}, {'start': '72.880', 'end': '78.240', 'text': "pay attention to. So, Billy, let's start"}, {'start': '75.680', 'end': '80.080', 'text': 'with the number first. What is the magic'}, {'start': '78.240', 'end': '81.520', 'text': 'number that people need to listen out'}, {'start': '80.080', 'end': '83.439', 'text': 'for? I feel like we should have a drum'}, {'start': '81.520', 'end': '86.799', 'text': 'roll or something to reveal the number.'}, {'start': '83.439', 'end': '90.080', 'text': 'Producer Elliot, drum roll. The magic'}, {'start': '86.799', 'end': '91.759', 'text': "number is 76. So, here we're talking"}, {'start': '90.080', 'end': '94.159', 'text': 'about the House of Representatives. That'}, {'start': '91.759', 'end': '96.880', 'text': 'is where the government is formed. And'}, {'start': '94.159', 'end': '99.520', 'text': 'in Australia, we have 150 electorates,'}, {'start': '96.880', 'end': '101.840', 'text': 'which means that we have 150 seats. And'}, {'start': '99.520', 'end': '105.360', 'text': 'in order to form government, you need a'}, {'start': '101.840', 'end': '108.079', 'text': 'majority of that. So 150 divided by 275'}, {'start': '105.360', 'end': '109.840', 'text': '+ 1 to reach a majority. A quick little'}, {'start': '108.079', 'end': '112.000', 'text': "math class. You're saying it with such a"}, {'start': '109.840', 'end': '113.600', 'text': 'smile on your face because you know that'}, {'start': '112.000', 'end': '115.439', 'text': 'I have struggled through the maths of it'}, {'start': '113.600', 'end': '117.439', 'text': 'all. But yes, that is correct. I think'}, {'start': '115.439', 'end': '120.880', 'text': "it's good to walk people through it. So"}, {'start': '117.439', 'end': '123.040', 'text': 'I agree. So 76 is how many seats a party'}, {'start': '120.880', 'end': '125.040', 'text': 'needs to reach in order to form a'}, {'start': '123.040', 'end': '126.719', 'text': "majority government. So if you're"}, {'start': '125.040', 'end': '129.119', 'text': 'watching the election tomorrow night,'}, {'start': '126.719', 'end': '131.840', 'text': "you'll see 76 come up time and time"}, {'start': '129.119', 'end': '134.239', 'text': 'again. If a party reaches that number,'}, {'start': '131.840', 'end': '136.640', 'text': 'that means election is over. That party'}, {'start': '134.239', 'end': '138.400', 'text': "has won. Okay. So, you're sitting at"}, {'start': '136.640', 'end': '139.599', 'text': "home or you're in an election party. I"}, {'start': '138.400', 'end': '143.120', 'text': "don't know if people still have election"}, {'start': '139.599', 'end': '145.440', 'text': 'parties. Oh, my parents, too. And it is'}, {'start': '143.120', 'end': '147.360', 'text': 'it is all they have spoken about for a'}, {'start': '145.440', 'end': '149.200', 'text': 'year. They have put more planning into'}, {'start': '147.360', 'end': '151.040', 'text': 'this election night party than anything'}, {'start': '149.200', 'end': '152.959', 'text': 'else. Okay. Excellent. So, we have proof'}, {'start': '151.040', 'end': '154.640', 'text': 'that election night parties still exist.'}, {'start': '152.959', 'end': '158.160', 'text': 'So, if people are at an election night'}, {'start': '154.640', 'end': '160.480', 'text': "party and perhaps the volume's down and"}, {'start': '158.160', 'end': '163.200', 'text': 'people are talking, but their ears need'}, {'start': '160.480', 'end': '165.440', 'text': 'to listen out for that magic 76 number.'}, {'start': '163.200', 'end': '167.200', 'text': '76. Okay. And when that happens, a'}, {'start': '165.440', 'end': '171.120', 'text': 'majority has been reached, the election'}, {'start': '167.200', 'end': '173.360', 'text': 'is called, and we know who has won. Yes.'}, {'start': '171.120', 'end': '176.160', 'text': "All right. So, that's a number. Talk me"}, {'start': '173.360', 'end': '178.080', 'text': 'through the word people need to be'}, {'start': '176.160', 'end': '179.680', 'text': 'listening out for because as I said'}, {'start': '178.080', 'end': '181.840', 'text': 'earlier, there are quite a few words'}, {'start': '179.680', 'end': '183.280', 'text': 'said on election night. How do you'}, {'start': '181.840', 'end': '185.040', 'text': "narrow it down? What's the one word that"}, {'start': '183.280', 'end': '187.280', 'text': 'you think people need to really pay'}, {'start': '185.040', 'end': '190.000', 'text': 'attention to? Okay, so the word we have'}, {'start': '187.280', 'end': '192.080', 'text': 'chosen is marginal. And now that is what'}, {'start': '190.000', 'end': '194.239', 'text': 'we use to describe certain seats that I'}, {'start': '192.080', 'end': '196.640', 'text': 'was talking about before. The seats that'}, {'start': '194.239', 'end': '198.560', 'text': "we don't know which way it's going to go"}, {'start': '196.640', 'end': '201.440', 'text': 'and from election to election, they tend'}, {'start': '198.560', 'end': '203.760', 'text': 'to go either way. Now we know which ones'}, {'start': '201.440', 'end': '205.920', 'text': 'are the marginal seats based on the'}, {'start': '203.760', 'end': '207.760', 'text': 'result from last election and then also'}, {'start': '205.920', 'end': '209.920', 'text': 'from current polling. There is a'}, {'start': '207.760', 'end': '212.239', 'text': 'technical definition from the AEC which'}, {'start': '209.920', 'end': '216.080', 'text': 'is if at the last election the winner'}, {'start': '212.239', 'end': '217.920', 'text': 'won by less than 56% then that seat is'}, {'start': '216.080', 'end': '220.080', 'text': "considered a marginal seat. So it's"}, {'start': '217.920', 'end': '222.159', 'text': 'literally just about the margin by which'}, {'start': '220.080', 'end': '224.799', 'text': 'they won at the previous election.'}, {'start': '222.159', 'end': '226.319', 'text': 'Margin got it margin for marginal. Are'}, {'start': '224.799', 'end': '228.400', 'text': 'you allowed to use the word in the'}, {'start': '226.319', 'end': '230.000', 'text': 'definition of the word? I think yes. You'}, {'start': '228.400', 'end': '232.239', 'text': 'would lose and articulate but I will'}, {'start': '230.000', 'end': '233.920', 'text': 'allow it just this one. Thank you. And'}, {'start': '232.239', 'end': '236.640', 'text': "if you're wondering how many there are"}, {'start': '233.920', 'end': '239.280', 'text': 'in Australia, there are about 50. So'}, {'start': '236.640', 'end': '242.080', 'text': 'about a third of the 150 seats in'}, {'start': '239.280', 'end': '244.000', 'text': 'parliament are marginal. So those are 50'}, {'start': '242.080', 'end': '245.599', 'text': 'seats for us to look out for at'}, {'start': '244.000', 'end': '248.560', 'text': "tomorrow's election. But I thought we"}, {'start': '245.599', 'end': '250.720', 'text': 'could go through one each. Zara, do you'}, {'start': '248.560', 'end': '254.159', 'text': 'Yes. Putting you on the spot. Do you'}, {'start': '250.720', 'end': '255.280', 'text': 'have a marginal seat that you have? Yes.'}, {'start': '254.159', 'end': '258.079', 'text': "That you've thought about a lot this"}, {'start': '255.280', 'end': '259.680', 'text': 'election. One that I have been thinking'}, {'start': '258.079', 'end': '261.440', 'text': "about and I think it's because there's"}, {'start': '259.680', 'end': '263.600', 'text': 'been quite a lot of coverage of it is'}, {'start': '261.440', 'end': '265.120', 'text': 'the seat of Dixon. That is Peter'}, {'start': '263.600', 'end': '267.840', 'text': "Dutton's seat. So, it's the most"}, {'start': '265.120', 'end': '269.759', 'text': 'marginal seat in Queensland. And I think'}, {'start': '267.840', 'end': '271.600', 'text': "that that's a really interesting thing"}, {'start': '269.759', 'end': '274.000', 'text': 'in and of itself that the leader of a'}, {'start': '271.600', 'end': '276.400', 'text': 'party could potentially find himself in'}, {'start': '274.000', 'end': '279.360', 'text': 'a situation where he loses his seat, but'}, {'start': '276.400', 'end': '282.000', 'text': 'his party wins the election. And so, I'}, {'start': '279.360', 'end': '285.120', 'text': "think I'm keeping a really strong focus"}, {'start': '282.000', 'end': '288.800', 'text': 'on Dixon. There we have Alli France who'}, {'start': '285.120', 'end': '291.199', 'text': 'the ALP have put up for election, I'}, {'start': '288.800', 'end': '293.120', 'text': 'think maybe three elections in a row to'}, {'start': '291.199', 'end': '295.600', 'text': 'contest the seat of Dixon. She has been'}, {'start': '293.120', 'end': '297.840', 'text': 'unsuccessful to date, but she is looking'}, {'start': '295.600', 'end': '299.759', 'text': 'to win that seat off opposition leader'}, {'start': '297.840', 'end': '301.040', 'text': "Peter Dutton. So, that is one that I'll"}, {'start': '299.759', 'end': '302.960', 'text': 'be keeping an eye on. What about you,'}, {'start': '301.040', 'end': '304.639', 'text': "Billy? Just quickly on Dixon, what's so"}, {'start': '302.960', 'end': '306.400', 'text': "interesting about that is I'm pretty"}, {'start': '304.639', 'end': '308.720', 'text': 'sure that Peter Dutton has held that'}, {'start': '306.400', 'end': '311.120', 'text': 'seat since something like 2001, but'}, {'start': '308.720', 'end': '313.919', 'text': 'throughout that whole time, so 25 years'}, {'start': '311.120', 'end': '315.440', 'text': 'now almost, it has been marginal. Oh,'}, {'start': '313.919', 'end': '317.039', 'text': "interesting. Yeah. So, even though you'd"}, {'start': '315.440', 'end': '318.800', 'text': "think that it's a safe seat, considering"}, {'start': '317.039', 'end': '321.280', 'text': 'how long he has held it, it has always'}, {'start': '318.800', 'end': '323.600', 'text': "been a marginal seed. So it's quite"}, {'start': '321.280', 'end': '327.840', 'text': 'amazing that he has held on to it for so'}, {'start': '323.600', 'end': '330.880', 'text': 'long. Okay. My one that I have been'}, {'start': '327.840', 'end': '333.360', 'text': 'paying close attention to is Kuong. That'}, {'start': '330.880', 'end': '335.120', 'text': 'is one of the seats in Melbourne and it'}, {'start': '333.360', 'end': '337.120', 'text': 'was one of the ones that one of the teal'}, {'start': '335.120', 'end': '339.600', 'text': 'independents took from one of the'}, {'start': '337.120', 'end': '341.600', 'text': 'Liberal MPs, quite a famous Liberal MP'}, {'start': '339.600', 'end': '343.919', 'text': 'in Josh Friedenberg who was the then'}, {'start': '341.600', 'end': '346.240', 'text': 'treasurer. She defeated him at the last'}, {'start': '343.919', 'end': '348.400', 'text': "election. It's since then been quite a"}, {'start': '346.240', 'end': '351.120', 'text': 'high-profile seat and certainly this'}, {'start': '348.400', 'end': '352.880', 'text': 'election that has remained. I saw a Tik'}, {'start': '351.120', 'end': '354.880', 'text': 'Tok the other day that was from someone'}, {'start': '352.880', 'end': '356.560', 'text': "who said that if you're saying this"}, {'start': '354.880', 'end': '358.080', 'text': "election is boring, you clearly haven't"}, {'start': '356.560', 'end': '360.240', 'text': 'been paying attention to what is'}, {'start': '358.080', 'end': '361.759', 'text': "happening in Kuong. Agreed. I don't"}, {'start': '360.240', 'end': '363.759', 'text': 'think we need to get into all of the'}, {'start': '361.759', 'end': '367.199', 'text': 'drama, but just know there has been so'}, {'start': '363.759', 'end': '368.720', 'text': 'much drama and my god, the politics in'}, {'start': '367.199', 'end': '370.960', 'text': 'that electorate that have been going on'}, {'start': '368.720', 'end': '373.120', 'text': 'have been insane to watch. And it will'}, {'start': '370.960', 'end': '374.800', 'text': 'be absolutely fascinating to see what'}, {'start': '373.120', 'end': '377.039', 'text': 'happens tomorrow night in Kuyong. That'}, {'start': '374.800', 'end': '379.759', 'text': "is the one I'm just so interested to see"}, {'start': '377.039', 'end': '382.720', 'text': 'what happens. Yeah. And it it is really'}, {'start': '379.759', 'end': '384.720', 'text': "interesting because sometimes it's very"}, {'start': '382.720', 'end': '386.880', 'text': 'clear straight off the bat polls close'}, {'start': '384.720', 'end': '389.759', 'text': 'and you start to get these early results'}, {'start': '386.880', 'end': '391.520', 'text': 'and Anthony Green on the ABC who is kind'}, {'start': '389.759', 'end': '393.680', 'text': 'of considered the like election'}, {'start': '391.520', 'end': '395.199', 'text': "overlord. It's actually it's his last"}, {'start': '393.680', 'end': '397.919', 'text': "election though, so it's the last time"}, {'start': '395.199', 'end': '400.319', 'text': "he'll be doing it. But he'll call seats"}, {'start': '397.919', 'end': '403.440', 'text': "quite early if he's very confident. And"}, {'start': '400.319', 'end': '404.800', 'text': 'so it could be that we are very quickly'}, {'start': '403.440', 'end': '407.280', 'text': 'getting a result from somewhere like'}, {'start': '404.800', 'end': '408.960', 'text': 'Kuong or it could be hours and hours and'}, {'start': '407.280', 'end': '411.039', 'text': 'hours or days and days and days. It'}, {'start': '408.960', 'end': '412.720', 'text': "could if it's if it's really close then"}, {'start': '411.039', 'end': '414.960', 'text': "I'm sure it will take it won't be"}, {'start': '412.720', 'end': '417.360', 'text': "instant. Yeah. So that's certainly one"}, {'start': '414.960', 'end': '419.759', 'text': "to keep an eye on. Billy, we've talked"}, {'start': '417.360', 'end': '422.880', 'text': 'through the number to keep an ear out'}, {'start': '419.759', 'end': '424.560', 'text': "for. We've spoken about the word that"}, {'start': '422.880', 'end': '427.360', 'text': 'people should keep in the front of their'}, {'start': '424.560', 'end': '430.400', 'text': 'mind. What to you is the standout moment'}, {'start': '427.360', 'end': '432.800', 'text': 'from any election? Okay, the moment is'}, {'start': '430.400', 'end': '434.800', 'text': 'the phone call. Now, every single'}, {'start': '432.800', 'end': '437.199', 'text': 'election there will be a phone call'}, {'start': '434.800', 'end': '439.919', 'text': 'between the two leaders before either of'}, {'start': '437.199', 'end': '441.919', 'text': 'them declare victory or concede. And so,'}, {'start': '439.919', 'end': '444.400', 'text': 'the phone call will be from the person'}, {'start': '441.919', 'end': '447.039', 'text': 'who loses. They typically will then call'}, {'start': '444.400', 'end': '448.479', 'text': 'the person who wins and say, "I concede.'}, {'start': '447.039', 'end': '450.400', 'text': "Congratulations. You've won the"}, {'start': '448.479', 'end': '452.319', 'text': 'election." And then the winner will go'}, {'start': '450.400', 'end': '453.840', 'text': 'out and do their victory speech. And'}, {'start': '452.319', 'end': '455.840', 'text': "often they'll start that speech by"}, {'start': '453.840', 'end': '458.080', 'text': 'saying, "I\'ve just had a phone call from'}, {'start': '455.840', 'end': '460.080', 'text': 'so and so and I can now declare'}, {'start': '458.080', 'end': '462.800', 'text': 'victory." And can you imagine a more'}, {'start': '460.080', 'end': '464.240', 'text': 'awkward phone call? No. Like I I have'}, {'start': '462.800', 'end': '466.080', 'text': 'any of my friends who listen to this'}, {'start': '464.240', 'end': '467.759', 'text': "will know my phone's permanently on do"}, {'start': '466.080', 'end': '470.160', 'text': "not disturb. I'm not interested in"}, {'start': '467.759', 'end': '473.199', 'text': 'answering phone calls. So the fear of'}, {'start': '470.160', 'end': '475.919', 'text': 'phone calls is a starting point. Imagine'}, {'start': '473.199', 'end': '478.080', 'text': 'just having to say, "I I\'ve lost. You\'ve'}, {'start': '475.919', 'end': '479.840', 'text': 'won. Well done." also from someone who'}, {'start': '478.080', 'end': '481.280', 'text': "like it's not like they've been friends"}, {'start': '479.840', 'end': '484.160', 'text': 'throughout this entire election'}, {'start': '481.280', 'end': '486.400', 'text': 'campaign. No. Yeah. And also a lot of'}, {'start': '484.160', 'end': '488.160', 'text': 'this election has become quite personal'}, {'start': '486.400', 'end': '490.560', 'text': 'between them in the attacks that they'}, {'start': '488.160', 'end': '492.599', 'text': 'direct towards one another. And so, you'}, {'start': '490.560', 'end': '494.479', 'text': 'know, after all of these kind of'}, {'start': '492.599', 'end': '496.319', 'text': 'nastiness, you then have to call the'}, {'start': '494.479', 'end': '497.599', 'text': 'person and say, "Congratulations." Yeah.'}, {'start': '496.319', 'end': '498.800', 'text': "And like, how do they get each other's"}, {'start': '497.599', 'end': '501.199', 'text': 'numbers? Do you think that they have'}, {'start': '498.800', 'end': '503.199', 'text': 'them? Their teams. They\'ll say, "My team'}, {'start': '501.199', 'end': '505.280', 'text': 'will do it to your team." Hand over the'}, {'start': '503.199', 'end': '507.599', 'text': "number. Oh, I'll call him. Hope it goes"}, {'start': '505.280', 'end': '509.360', 'text': 'to voicemail. Yes. And this is something'}, {'start': '507.599', 'end': '511.199', 'text': 'that happens at elections around the'}, {'start': '509.360', 'end': '513.519', 'text': "world. It's definitely not unique to"}, {'start': '511.199', 'end': '515.440', 'text': 'Australia. I know that Joe Biden called'}, {'start': '513.519', 'end': '517.200', 'text': 'Donald Trump before Donald Trump'}, {'start': '515.440', 'end': '520.479', 'text': "declared victory. So, it's a very common"}, {'start': '517.200', 'end': '523.120', 'text': 'thing. Yeah. Okay. So, we are waiting'}, {'start': '520.479', 'end': '525.200', 'text': 'for or not we we are not running for'}, {'start': '523.120', 'end': '528.160', 'text': 'prime minister, but whoever declares'}, {'start': '525.200', 'end': '530.480', 'text': 'victory will only do that when the other'}, {'start': '528.160', 'end': '532.800', 'text': 'usually has conceded. We know that that'}, {'start': '530.480', 'end': '535.279', 'text': 'happens via a phone call at some point'}, {'start': '532.800', 'end': '538.160', 'text': 'during the evening. So that is a good'}, {'start': '535.279', 'end': '540.240', 'text': 'one to keep an eye on. We have mentioned'}, {'start': '538.160', 'end': '543.279', 'text': "though that we don't really know how"}, {'start': '540.240', 'end': '546.800', 'text': 'long this can all take. So can you just'}, {'start': '543.279', 'end': '549.440', 'text': 'set up a bit of a timeline for us for'}, {'start': '546.800', 'end': '551.360', 'text': "Saturday night? Hi there. My name's"}, {'start': '549.440', 'end': '553.120', 'text': "Emma. I'm the editor at the Daily Oz."}, {'start': '551.360', 'end': '555.279', 'text': 'Just popping in to say hi and let you'}, {'start': '553.120', 'end': '557.360', 'text': 'know that here at the Daily Oz, we are'}, {'start': '555.279', 'end': '559.440', 'text': 'an independent media company who work to'}, {'start': '557.360', 'end': '562.160', 'text': 'break down the news for young Aussies in'}, {'start': '559.440', 'end': '564.080', 'text': 'a digestible and accessible way. If you'}, {'start': '562.160', 'end': '566.240', 'text': "like what you're watching and you like"}, {'start': '564.080', 'end': '568.160', 'text': 'what we do, please hit the subscribe'}, {'start': '566.240', 'end': '570.399', 'text': 'button. Now, back to the video. Yeah.'}, {'start': '568.160', 'end': '572.240', 'text': 'So, polls close at 6:00 p.m. no matter'}, {'start': '570.399', 'end': '574.320', 'text': "what state you're in. And then the"}, {'start': '572.240', 'end': '575.760', 'text': 'counting immediately begins. Now, the'}, {'start': '574.320', 'end': '577.760', 'text': 'Australian Electoral Commission, who'}, {'start': '575.760', 'end': '579.519', 'text': 'oversees elections in Australia, they'}, {'start': '577.760', 'end': '581.839', 'text': 'say that we can start to see results'}, {'start': '579.519', 'end': '584.080', 'text': 'roll in at about 7:00 p.m., particularly'}, {'start': '581.839', 'end': '585.920', 'text': 'from the smaller polling centers. And'}, {'start': '584.080', 'end': '587.519', 'text': 'then for the medium to bigger size'}, {'start': '585.920', 'end': '589.440', 'text': "polling centers, they say that we'll"}, {'start': '587.519', 'end': '592.720', 'text': 'start to see results from about 8 to'}, {'start': '589.440', 'end': '595.200', 'text': '8:30 p.m. So I think based on that at'}, {'start': '592.720', 'end': '598.160', 'text': 'about 900 p.m. I would say that is the'}, {'start': '595.200', 'end': '601.120', 'text': 'time for you to tune in and we should by'}, {'start': '598.160', 'end': '603.600', 'text': 'that time understand kind of what'}, {'start': '601.120', 'end': '605.360', 'text': "direction this is going in. If it's"}, {'start': '603.600', 'end': '607.839', 'text': 'really close, it will go for hours and'}, {'start': '605.360', 'end': '610.320', 'text': "hours and hours, but again, we'll know"}, {'start': '607.839', 'end': '612.560', 'text': "if it's really close by about 9:00 p.m."}, {'start': '610.320', 'end': '614.480', 'text': "Yeah. And it's interesting because in"}, {'start': '612.560', 'end': '617.360', 'text': 'every election around the world when you'}, {'start': '614.480', 'end': '619.440', 'text': 'first start to see results come back, it'}, {'start': '617.360', 'end': '621.600', 'text': 'can swing really strongly one way, but'}, {'start': '619.440', 'end': '623.680', 'text': "that's just representative of where"}, {'start': '621.600', 'end': '625.920', 'text': 'those early votes are coming from, not'}, {'start': '623.680', 'end': '628.399', 'text': 'necessarily of the direction of the'}, {'start': '625.920', 'end': '630.079', 'text': 'overall vote. It is also interesting to'}, {'start': '628.399', 'end': '632.959', 'text': "note, I don't know if people know this,"}, {'start': '630.079', 'end': '635.519', 'text': "that early voting doesn't get counted"}, {'start': '632.959', 'end': '637.120', 'text': 'early. So people who send in postal'}, {'start': '635.519', 'end': '638.720', 'text': 'votes or people that have gone to pre-'}, {'start': '637.120', 'end': '640.480', 'text': "pole and we know that's a huge"}, {'start': '638.720', 'end': '642.720', 'text': 'percentage of the electorate, those'}, {'start': '640.480', 'end': '645.200', 'text': "votes aren't counted any earlier than"}, {'start': '642.720', 'end': '647.360', 'text': 'the ones that are lodged on election'}, {'start': '645.200', 'end': '649.120', 'text': "day. So there's a lot of counting that"}, {'start': '647.360', 'end': '651.360', 'text': 'gets done in a very short period of time'}, {'start': '649.120', 'end': '654.360', 'text': "and it's still all done by humans. So"}, {'start': '651.360', 'end': '657.279', 'text': "there you go. Billy, we've spoken about"}, {'start': '654.360', 'end': '659.760', 'text': "when we'll have a sense of what's going"}, {'start': '657.279', 'end': '662.720', 'text': 'on. You work in the media though. We are'}, {'start': '659.760', 'end': '664.560', 'text': 'going to be telling as do you. I do. We'}, {'start': '662.720', 'end': '667.680', 'text': 'are going to be telling our audience'}, {'start': '664.560', 'end': '669.839', 'text': 'when the election has been called. How'}, {'start': '667.680', 'end': '671.600', 'text': 'do we know? We know from the data that'}, {'start': '669.839', 'end': '673.440', 'text': 'the Australian Electoral Commission puts'}, {'start': '671.600', 'end': '675.040', 'text': 'on their website. So they have something'}, {'start': '673.440', 'end': '676.720', 'text': 'called the tally room and that is'}, {'start': '675.040', 'end': '678.720', 'text': 'available to every single person. You'}, {'start': '676.720', 'end': '681.040', 'text': 'can just access it on their website and'}, {'start': '678.720', 'end': '682.880', 'text': 'that gives you all of the raw data as'}, {'start': '681.040', 'end': '685.440', 'text': "the votes are coming in. I think it's"}, {'start': '682.880', 'end': '687.760', 'text': 'updated every 90 seconds or so. Crazy.'}, {'start': '685.440', 'end': '689.680', 'text': "And that's person sitting there entering"}, {'start': '687.760', 'end': '691.760', 'text': 'the data points. Well, that will be us'}, {'start': '689.680', 'end': '694.800', 'text': 'not entering it, but then looking at it'}, {'start': '691.760', 'end': '698.000', 'text': 'every 90 seconds. And so then the media,'}, {'start': '694.800', 'end': '700.240', 'text': 'including us, go to that tally room and'}, {'start': '698.000', 'end': '702.240', 'text': 'use that data to try to understand what'}, {'start': '700.240', 'end': '704.320', 'text': 'is happening in each electorate. And'}, {'start': '702.240', 'end': '706.399', 'text': 'once a certain number of votes are'}, {'start': '704.320', 'end': '709.200', 'text': 'called, then you can pretty confidently'}, {'start': '706.399', 'end': '711.200', 'text': 'say whether a seat has swung either way.'}, {'start': '709.200', 'end': '713.040', 'text': 'And then again, if enough seats have'}, {'start': '711.200', 'end': '715.760', 'text': 'been called and one of the parties'}, {'start': '713.040', 'end': '718.240', 'text': 'reaches 76 based on that, a winner will'}, {'start': '715.760', 'end': '720.640', 'text': 'be declared. But that winner is only'}, {'start': '718.240', 'end': '722.720', 'text': 'declared by the media on the night which'}, {'start': '720.640', 'end': '724.800', 'text': 'is kind of a funny thing. The AEC will'}, {'start': '722.720', 'end': '726.560', 'text': 'never declare the winner on election'}, {'start': '724.800', 'end': '728.399', 'text': 'night because they have to go through so'}, {'start': '726.560', 'end': '730.000', 'text': 'many all the counting. Yeah. All of the'}, {'start': '728.399', 'end': '732.720', 'text': 'counting and also so many formal'}, {'start': '730.000', 'end': '735.440', 'text': 'processes even after that counting is'}, {'start': '732.720', 'end': '738.000', 'text': 'done. So it is quite a long process at'}, {'start': '735.440', 'end': '739.920', 'text': 'least for the AEC but for the media once'}, {'start': '738.000', 'end': '742.399', 'text': 'they have enough of the raw data it'}, {'start': '739.920', 'end': '744.000', 'text': 'usually will be called often by none'}, {'start': '742.399', 'end': '747.120', 'text': 'other than Anthony Green who you just'}, {'start': '744.000', 'end': '749.200', 'text': 'mentioned. at news outlets across the'}, {'start': '747.120', 'end': '751.760', 'text': 'country and across the world during'}, {'start': '749.200', 'end': '754.480', 'text': "every single election. It's this tension"}, {'start': '751.760', 'end': '756.880', 'text': 'of when to call it because, you know,'}, {'start': '754.480', 'end': '758.959', 'text': 'there can be early results that might'}, {'start': '756.880', 'end': '761.440', 'text': "radically change through the night. It's"}, {'start': '758.959', 'end': '763.120', 'text': 'not overly likely, but we do tend to be'}, {'start': '761.440', 'end': '765.279', 'text': 'a bit more conservative in when we will'}, {'start': '763.120', 'end': '768.399', 'text': 'call the election. And as you said,'}, {'start': '765.279', 'end': '771.040', 'text': 'Anthony Green is usually the first to'}, {'start': '768.399', 'end': '772.720', 'text': 'call it officially. Uh but then as you'}, {'start': '771.040', 'end': '774.480', 'text': "said once that phone call's happened and"}, {'start': '772.720', 'end': '776.639', 'text': "once a leader gets up that's a pretty"}, {'start': '774.480', 'end': '779.120', 'text': 'sure thing that the election has been'}, {'start': '776.639', 'end': '782.120', 'text': 'called. All right. Now Billy I want to'}, {'start': '779.120', 'end': '784.959', 'text': 'end on a question which might seem'}, {'start': '782.120', 'end': '787.680', 'text': 'counterproductive. Uh but there is I'}, {'start': '784.959', 'end': '791.200', 'text': 'think a big question lingering as we'}, {'start': '787.680', 'end': '793.360', 'text': 'head into election night because the'}, {'start': '791.200', 'end': '795.200', 'text': 'polls are telling us one thing. The'}, {'start': '793.360', 'end': '797.399', 'text': 'polls have told us one thing many times'}, {'start': '795.200', 'end': '799.680', 'text': 'in a row. They might not have been'}, {'start': '797.399', 'end': '801.600', 'text': 'correct. Can we trust the polls? Will'}, {'start': '799.680', 'end': '803.839', 'text': 'the polls be right? Yeah, this is the'}, {'start': '801.600', 'end': '806.000', 'text': 'key question. Will the polls be right?'}, {'start': '803.839', 'end': '807.839', 'text': 'We have seen time and time again, not'}, {'start': '806.000', 'end': '810.320', 'text': 'just in Australia, but around the world,'}, {'start': '807.839', 'end': '812.399', 'text': 'examples of polls being wrong. Most'}, {'start': '810.320', 'end': '815.440', 'text': 'famously in Australia, this is just my'}, {'start': '812.399', 'end': '817.120', 'text': 'favorite example ever. In 2019, there'}, {'start': '815.440', 'end': '819.200', 'text': 'was a widespread expectation based on'}, {'start': '817.120', 'end': '820.880', 'text': 'the polling that Labour would win in a'}, {'start': '819.200', 'end': '823.120', 'text': 'very decisive victory. And they'}, {'start': '820.880', 'end': '824.880', 'text': 'absolutely did not. The coalition won.'}, {'start': '823.120', 'end': '826.959', 'text': 'That was when Scott Morrison famously'}, {'start': '824.880', 'end': '829.320', 'text': 'got up in his victory speech and said'}, {'start': '826.959', 'end': '832.639', 'text': "he's always believed in miracles. I"}, {'start': '829.320', 'end': '834.399', 'text': 'think very famous. The polls, just to'}, {'start': '832.639', 'end': '836.560', 'text': 'give you an idea, the polls were so'}, {'start': '834.399', 'end': '839.680', 'text': 'wrong that actually 2 days before the'}, {'start': '836.560', 'end': '841.920', 'text': 'election sports bet they paid out'}, {'start': '839.680', 'end': '844.160', 'text': 'everyone who had predicted a Labour win'}, {'start': '841.920', 'end': '846.320', 'text': 'because they were so confident that'}, {'start': '844.160', 'end': '848.079', 'text': 'Labour would win based on the polling'}, {'start': '846.320', 'end': '851.040', 'text': 'and then they lost something like 6'}, {'start': '848.079', 'end': '853.680', 'text': 'million or 5 million because in the end'}, {'start': '851.040', 'end': '856.880', 'text': "obviously Labour didn't win. I mean it's"}, {'start': '853.680', 'end': '860.000', 'text': 'so remarkable and I think especially'}, {'start': '856.880', 'end': '861.519', 'text': 'from 2019 not I think I know a lot of'}, {'start': '860.000', 'end': '864.000', 'text': 'pollsters around the country have'}, {'start': '861.519', 'end': '866.160', 'text': 'changed the way that they are polling'}, {'start': '864.000', 'end': '868.000', 'text': 'they have broadened the margin of error'}, {'start': '866.160', 'end': '870.160', 'text': 'they have accounted for what happened'}, {'start': '868.000', 'end': '872.160', 'text': 'then but still you know there have been'}, {'start': '870.160', 'end': '874.000', 'text': "examples since and it's a really good"}, {'start': '872.160', 'end': '876.880', 'text': 'point can we trust the polls because'}, {'start': '874.000', 'end': '879.839', 'text': 'right now they are suggesting an Anthony'}, {'start': '876.880', 'end': '881.120', 'text': "Albanzy win a Labour majority we're"}, {'start': '879.839', 'end': '883.040', 'text': 'going to sit here on Monday morning and'}, {'start': '881.120', 'end': '884.959', 'text': 'be able to reflect on whether or Not.'}, {'start': '883.040', 'end': '887.199', 'text': 'The answer to that question is yes.'}, {'start': '884.959', 'end': '889.199', 'text': 'Politicians always famously say the only'}, {'start': '887.199', 'end': '890.240', 'text': 'poll that counts is on election day.'}, {'start': '889.199', 'end': '891.839', 'text': "Correct. There you go. That's their"}, {'start': '890.240', 'end': '893.760', 'text': 'favorite saying. Well, Billy, I think'}, {'start': '891.839', 'end': '896.240', 'text': "that's a really helpful framework to"}, {'start': '893.760', 'end': '898.959', 'text': 'understand the big night itself, the big'}, {'start': '896.240', 'end': '901.360', 'text': "dance. It's been a long road to get"}, {'start': '898.959', 'end': '903.519', 'text': 'here, but thank you for being here every'}, {'start': '901.360', 'end': '905.760', 'text': "step of the way. It's been a pleasure to"}, {'start': '903.519', 'end': '908.320', 'text': 'take the audience through the'}, {'start': '905.760', 'end': '910.320', 'text': 'foundations of our political system. We'}, {'start': '908.320', 'end': '912.560', 'text': 'here at the Daily Oz care so deeply'}, {'start': '910.320', 'end': '915.360', 'text': 'about engaging young people in our'}, {'start': '912.560', 'end': '918.240', 'text': 'democratic process and helping you make'}, {'start': '915.360', 'end': '922.760', 'text': "an informed vote on Saturday. We'll talk"}, {'start': '918.240', 'end': '922.760', 'text': 'to you on Monday with the results. Bye.'}]