China Evaluating US Talks; Australia & Singapore Vote | Bloomberg: The Asia Trade 5/2/25
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[{'start': '15.870', 'end': '18.300', 'text': "This is the Asia trade.\nI'm sure everyone in Tokyo"}, {'start': '19.770', 'end': '22.350', 'text': 'had started watching Sydney.\nThe top stories this hour.'}, {'start': '22.590', 'end': '26.280', 'text': 'A tailwind for Asian stocks as Wall\nStreet posts an eight straight gain with'}, {'start': '26.280', 'end': '29.850', 'text': 'strong earnings from Meta.\nMicrosoft upending the Sell America'}, {'start': '29.850', 'end': '33.120', 'text': 'narrative.\nWith Apple sliding in late trade as its'}, {'start': '33.120', 'end': '36.450', 'text': 'China sales disappoints and it warns of\ndamage from the trade war.'}, {'start': '36.750', 'end': '39.810', 'text': 'Amazon also bracing for a tougher\nbusiness climate.'}, {'start': '43.290', 'end': '46.500', 'text': "And I'm Paul Allen in Sydney.\nOn the eve of a knife edge Australian"}, {'start': '46.500', 'end': '50.370', 'text': 'election, the prospect of minority\ngovernment is looming large, has voters'}, {'start': '50.370', 'end': '53.460', 'text': 'weigh promises from the Labor\ngovernments and the Conservative'}, {'start': '53.460', 'end': '57.720', 'text': "opposition on inflation, housing and the\nimpact of Trump's tariff war."}, {'start': '60.990', 'end': '65.220', 'text': "And I'm April Hong in Singapore, where\nvoters also head to the polls tomorrow"}, {'start': '65.370', 'end': '68.940', 'text': 'amid a challenging time for this trade\ndependent economy.'}, {'start': '71.100', 'end': '74.140', 'text': 'And we start off with CPI numbers out of\nSouth Korea.'}, {'start': '74.190', 'end': '80.610', 'text': 'Breaking news we have now, the core CPI\ncoming in an acceleration of 2.1% year'}, {'start': '80.610', 'end': '83.130', 'text': 'on year.\nSurprising to the upside when it comes'}, {'start': '83.130', 'end': '87.750', 'text': 'to the month, on month number is 0.4%\ngain for the month of April.'}, {'start': '87.750', 'end': '90.750', 'text': 'This coming despite a drop in gasoline\nprices.'}, {'start': '90.930', 'end': '95.400', 'text': 'Of course, we continue to see the upward\npressure from import costs stemming from'}, {'start': '95.400', 'end': '98.430', 'text': 'a weaker one.\nThe South Korea market will come back'}, {'start': '98.430', 'end': '101.940', 'text': 'online today after a holiday.\nBut take a look at futures right now'}, {'start': '101.940', 'end': '106.320', 'text': 'under pressure because we have seen, of\ncourse, the acceleration of those gains'}, {'start': '106.320', 'end': '110.040', 'text': 'in the Asian markets, especially with\nthe Nikkei now gaining for a sixth'}, {'start': '110.040', 'end': '114.180', 'text': 'consecutive session for the longest\nwinning streak since January of last'}, {'start': '114.180', 'end': '116.580', 'text': 'year.\nThis coming on the back of a big policy'}, {'start': '116.580', 'end': '119.580', 'text': 'decision.\nAs expected, the BOJ held rates.'}, {'start': '119.610', 'end': '123.390', 'text': 'They flagged downside risks to\ninflation, did not push out the time'}, {'start': '123.390', 'end': '126.790', 'text': 'frame when they can start normalizing\nand hiking rates again.'}, {'start': '126.810', 'end': '130.590', 'text': "Take a look at certainly futures down as\nwell as we're headed towards a federal"}, {'start': '130.590', 'end': '133.530', 'text': "election on saturday.\nWhat's been interesting is that, of"}, {'start': '133.530', 'end': '137.490', 'text': 'course, we have the backdrop of trade\nnegotiations right now ongoing.'}, {'start': '137.490', 'end': '141.360', 'text': 'Japan and the US had their second round\nin Washington, D.C.'}, {'start': '141.570', 'end': '145.110', 'text': "What we'll be watching today from those\nnegotiations, Treasury, take a look at"}, {'start': '145.110', 'end': '149.880', 'text': 'how futures are looking in the US\nsession, of course, early in the Asian'}, {'start': '149.880', 'end': '155.160', 'text': 'morning hours because now Finance\nMinister Kato here in Japan flagging'}, {'start': '155.160', 'end': '160.620', 'text': 'that the US Treasury holdings that Japan\nhas are actually a card in ongoing trade'}, {'start': '160.620', 'end': '164.580', 'text': 'negotiations.\nHe did not say whether he will use that'}, {'start': '164.580', 'end': '166.830', 'text': 'card.\nBut remember, back in April, we have'}, {'start': '166.830', 'end': '170.670', 'text': "this jitter in the Treasury space\nbecause of China's holdings of"}, {'start': '170.670', 'end': '173.130', 'text': 'treasuries.\nAgain, while we have seen Treasuries'}, {'start': '173.130', 'end': '176.220', 'text': "really slumping in the previous session,\nas well as we've got U.S."}, {'start': '176.220', 'end': '180.540', 'text': 'manufacturing activity shrinking in\nApril, of course, the ongoing tariffs'}, {'start': '180.540', 'end': '184.080', 'text': "are in place, but at the same time, they\ndon't a shrink as much as expected"}, {'start': '184.080', 'end': '185.970', 'text': 'Heidi.\nSo there was a little bit of a sigh of'}, {'start': '185.970', 'end': '187.170', 'text': 'relief.\nTake a look at U.S.'}, {'start': '187.170', 'end': '192.950', 'text': 'futures now down 2/10 of 1% after eight\nsessions of gains all share.'}, {'start': '192.960', 'end': '196.680', 'text': 'As you say, the tariff, the trade war\nthematic is really front and center when'}, {'start': '196.680', 'end': '199.170', 'text': 'it comes to this earnings season,\nparticularly when it comes to the big'}, {'start': '199.170', 'end': '202.140', 'text': 'tech names.\nAnd Apple shares was one prime example'}, {'start': '202.140', 'end': '206.670', 'text': 'lower in late trading, reported worse\nthan expected sales in China and warned'}, {'start': '206.670', 'end': '210.390', 'text': 'that tariffs will increase costs by $900\nmillion this quarter.'}, {'start': '210.660', 'end': '213.090', 'text': 'As senior tech editor Nick Turner joins\nus now.'}, {'start': '213.090', 'end': '216.510', 'text': 'And so, you know, this is sort of just\nputting the squeeze further in the'}, {'start': '216.510', 'end': '220.500', 'text': 'Chinese market, where, of course, Apple\nhad already struggled with non tariff'}, {'start': '220.500', 'end': '222.810', 'text': "related woes.\nThey're also being squeezed when it"}, {'start': '222.810', 'end': '228.540', 'text': 'comes to production.\nYes, I think that people were sort of'}, {'start': '228.540', 'end': '231.660', 'text': 'bracing for maybe more bad news out of\nChina, but it was a little worse than'}, {'start': '231.660', 'end': '236.220', 'text': "even what they had been estimating.\nSo that's not a great sign."}, {'start': '236.220', 'end': '241.350', 'text': "You take that together with the tariff\nsituation and there's just sort of is"}, {'start': '241.350', 'end': '248.010', 'text': 'this broader cloud tied to geopolitical\ntensions and and the sense that the'}, {'start': '248.010', 'end': '252.300', 'text': "problems that Apple has currently, it\nhasn't made a lot of headway in fixing"}, {'start': '252.300', 'end': '254.760', 'text': 'them, at least in this this past\nquarter.'}, {'start': '256.670', 'end': '260.570', 'text': 'Some of those challenges have lie in\nartificial intelligence developments as'}, {'start': '260.570', 'end': '264.440', 'text': "well.\nYeah, this that's an issue that came up"}, {'start': '264.440', 'end': '266.720', 'text': 'during the conference call with Apple\nand'}, {'start': '267.860', 'end': '271.100', 'text': 'CEO Tim Cook.\nYou know said the company is making'}, {'start': '271.100', 'end': '274.940', 'text': 'headway on for instance, improving its\nSiri voice assistant.'}, {'start': '275.270', 'end': '279.290', 'text': "But he didn't necessarily say anything\nthat I think gave people a sense that"}, {'start': '279.290', 'end': '284.120', 'text': 'that Apple was catching up quickly on\nits on its rivals in AI.'}, {'start': '284.150', 'end': '286.190', 'text': "So that's still sort of a wait and see\nsituation."}, {'start': '289.050', 'end': '291.570', 'text': 'What is the biggest sort of issue now\nfor Apple?'}, {'start': '291.580', 'end': '294.540', 'text': 'Because we know that the local\ncompetition and the loss of market share'}, {'start': '294.540', 'end': '299.070', 'text': 'in China was already in place before the\nTrump administration this time around.'}, {'start': '299.070', 'end': '302.430', 'text': 'But are there ways that they can get\naround the cost issue when it comes to'}, {'start': '302.670', 'end': '307.500', 'text': "the China centric production?\nWell, certainly they're already moving"}, {'start': '308.160', 'end': '312.480', 'text': 'the US bound iPhone production to India,\nand it did sound like there was some'}, {'start': '312.480', 'end': '316.470', 'text': "progress on that front.\nThey're going to have most of the those"}, {'start': '316.470', 'end': '320.490', 'text': 'phones coming from India in 2026.\nAnd I think that Cook said that about'}, {'start': '320.490', 'end': '322.460', 'text': 'half of them are already coming from\nIndia.'}, {'start': '322.470', 'end': '326.520', 'text': "So that's it's pretty amazing when you\nthink of just how reliant Apple was on"}, {'start': '326.520', 'end': '329.340', 'text': "China a few years ago that they've\ngotten this far."}, {'start': '329.700', 'end': '334.770', 'text': 'But certainly the dream of the Trump\nadministration of having U.S.'}, {'start': '334.770', 'end': '338.460', 'text': "made iPhones is not something that\nthey're close to."}, {'start': '338.460', 'end': '343.920', 'text': 'And even the India situation will take\nyears really before especially the most'}, {'start': '343.920', 'end': '348.120', 'text': 'advanced iPhones can really be\nconsistently, reliably coming out of'}, {'start': '348.120', 'end': '353.390', 'text': 'India.\nBloomberg senior tech editor, and they'}, {'start': '353.390', 'end': '357.590', 'text': "turned they were there as we're also\nwatching Amazon in after hours because"}, {'start': '357.620', 'end': '361.950', 'text': 'the stock is now under pressure.\nThe company gave a weaker than expected'}, {'start': '361.970', 'end': '366.830', 'text': 'forecast for operating profit.\nIn the current quarter on tariff'}, {'start': '366.830', 'end': '367.760', 'text': 'concerns.\nFor more.'}, {'start': '367.790', 'end': '370.190', 'text': "Let's bring in e commerce reporter\nSpencer Soper."}, {'start': '370.520', 'end': '374.930', 'text': "Spencer, I mean, it's a really\nchallenging time, especially for these"}, {'start': '374.930', 'end': '379.310', 'text': 'retailers at a time when they really\nsource much of their products from'}, {'start': '379.310', 'end': '381.830', 'text': 'China.\nI mean, what were the highlights here?'}, {'start': '381.860', 'end': '385.060', 'text': 'What could they say?\nYeah.'}, {'start': '385.060', 'end': '389.680', 'text': "They they basically just said that their\nformula for success hasn't really"}, {'start': '389.680', 'end': '393.400', 'text': 'changed, that they still want to offer\npeople as many products as they can'}, {'start': '393.400', 'end': '397.150', 'text': 'possibly find at the lowest prices\npossible.'}, {'start': '397.390', 'end': '402.340', 'text': 'And that, you know, given their diverse\nsupplier base, you know, they got more'}, {'start': '402.340', 'end': '406.150', 'text': 'than 2 million merchants from all over\nthe world that sell things on Amazon,'}, {'start': '406.450', 'end': '411.850', 'text': 'that that should still be\na marketplace that stands out for deals,'}, {'start': '411.850', 'end': '415.160', 'text': "even if there is tariff pressure.\nSo they're basically just trying to send"}, {'start': '415.160', 'end': '419.120', 'text': "the message that they're in as good a\nposition or better position than there"}, {'start': '419.140', 'end': '423.400', 'text': 'many other places, you know, for for the\ntariffs.'}, {'start': '423.400', 'end': '426.970', 'text': "But there's still just a huge amount of\nuncertainty around it there."}, {'start': '426.970', 'end': '431.770', 'text': 'Guide on their operating income was\nrather wide, which they attributed to'}, {'start': '431.770', 'end': '434.980', 'text': 'the uncertainty.\nSo, you know, the markets reacted to'}, {'start': '434.980', 'end': '439.400', 'text': 'that.\nWas there a bright spot when it comes to'}, {'start': '439.790', 'end': '443.270', 'text': 'us?\nNot particularly.'}, {'start': '443.300', 'end': '448.850', 'text': 'I mean, us did did well and generates\nmost of their profit, but it had'}, {'start': '448.850', 'end': '452.240', 'text': 'decelerated a bit.\nAnd so there were concerns around that.'}, {'start': '452.480', 'end': '456.530', 'text': 'And I think what happened was earlier in\nthe week, Microsoft reported in its'}, {'start': '456.530', 'end': '460.520', 'text': 'cloud computing revenue was quite strong\nand actually beat expectations.'}, {'start': '461.300', 'end': '465.350', 'text': 'Amazon was the opposite of that, came in\na little bit late and so probably caused'}, {'start': '465.350', 'end': '468.630', 'text': 'some concern.\nSo it had gotten a little bit of a.'}, {'start': '468.650', 'end': '473.180', 'text': 'Amazon stock had gotten a bit of a bump\nbased on Microsoft results, probably'}, {'start': '473.180', 'end': '477.920', 'text': 'investors anticipating a similar beat\nfrom Amazon.'}, {'start': '477.920', 'end': '481.550', 'text': "But then when they didn't have the beat\nthat had to give that bump bump back."}, {'start': '483.700', 'end': '486.850', 'text': 'And all of these businesses really\ntiptoeing around the White House on his'}, {'start': '486.850', 'end': '487.690', 'text': 'policies.\nRight.'}, {'start': '487.720', 'end': '492.070', 'text': 'We had a report earlier that Amazon was\nlooking perhaps displaying the tariffs'}, {'start': '492.070', 'end': '496.390', 'text': 'impact on their cost to consumers.\nWhat do we know about this and could'}, {'start': '496.390', 'end': '499.450', 'text': 'this happen in the future, perhaps with\neven other companies?'}, {'start': '500.830', 'end': '506.080', 'text': 'Yeah, that that looked like it was\nsomething around Amazon whole, which is'}, {'start': '506.410', 'end': '512.409', 'text': "kind of Amazon's reaction to Teemu and\nshe in these kind of discount factory"}, {'start': '512.409', 'end': '516.010', 'text': "direct marketplaces.\nAnd Amazon's answer was like, look, this"}, {'start': '516.010', 'end': '518.440', 'text': 'was never an approved plan and we were\nnever planning to do it.'}, {'start': '519.309', 'end': '523.630', 'text': 'But that is something that, you know,\nother companies are implementing if'}, {'start': '523.630', 'end': '527.320', 'text': "they're a little less sensitive to the\nwhims of the White House, though,"}, {'start': '527.650', 'end': '533.590', 'text': "they'll slap a tariff bill or even label\nit a Trump tariff bill on the you know,"}, {'start': '533.890', 'end': '536.800', 'text': "so consumers know exactly why they're\npaying so much extra."}, {'start': '537.010', 'end': '540.370', 'text': "But Amazon certainly backed down from\nthat because it doesn't it doesn't want"}, {'start': '540.370', 'end': '547.600', 'text': 'to to upset Trump.\nBut expenses up there with Amazon and'}, {'start': '548.390', 'end': '551.180', 'text': 'all of these trade worries are playing\nout for e commerce.'}, {'start': '551.210', 'end': '554.090', 'text': 'Well, President Trump says the who\nnominate national security adviser'}, {'start': '554.090', 'end': '557.930', 'text': 'Michael Waltz to be the next U.N.\nambassador to the U.S.'}, {'start': '557.930', 'end': '560.840', 'text': 'ambassador, I should say, to the U.N.\nWaltz has faced, of course, criticism'}, {'start': '560.840', 'end': '564.080', 'text': 'after adding a journalist to a signal\ngroup chat where U.S.'}, {'start': '564.080', 'end': '566.190', 'text': 'officials discuss sensitive attack\nplans.'}, {'start': '566.210', 'end': '567.830', 'text': "It's very Nick Wadhams who leads the\nU.S."}, {'start': '567.830', 'end': '571.940', 'text': "national security coverage.\nAnd there's been ongoing calls for his"}, {'start': '571.940', 'end': '575.470', 'text': "resignation for something to be done\nabout Hague's death as well."}, {'start': '575.480', 'end': '578.990', 'text': 'In fact, you know, all of the top\nleadership was involved in this and'}, {'start': '578.990', 'end': '580.730', 'text': 'potentially other signal groups as well.\nRight.'}, {'start': '580.730', 'end': '585.410', 'text': 'But this is more of a job swap type\nsituation or, you know, a change in'}, {'start': '585.410', 'end': '589.640', 'text': 'personnel.\nIt is, but it seems pretty clear this is'}, {'start': '589.640', 'end': '592.700', 'text': 'a demotion.\nI mean, Mike Wallace is losing his'}, {'start': '593.210', 'end': '597.800', 'text': 'constant access to the Oval Office.\nHe had an office in the White House and'}, {'start': '597.800', 'end': '603.800', 'text': 'the National Security Council building\nand had traveled with and basically been'}, {'start': '603.800', 'end': '607.700', 'text': "in Donald Trump's constant presence for\na long time and played a leading role in"}, {'start': '607.700', 'end': '611.900', 'text': "advising him on all sorts of issues.\nNow he's going to be moving to New York"}, {'start': '611.900', 'end': '616.610', 'text': 'and essentially representing the Trump\nadministration on foreign policy issues.'}, {'start': '616.610', 'end': '619.850', 'text': 'But he will be very much in message\ndelivery mode.'}, {'start': '619.850', 'end': '624.150', 'text': "So they're shaping shaping that message\nmore or less from the sidelines."}, {'start': '624.170', 'end': '627.890', 'text': 'So the administration is saying today\nthis was not a step down.'}, {'start': '627.920', 'end': '630.620', 'text': 'J.D.\nVance went on Fox News earlier this'}, {'start': '630.620', 'end': '634.730', 'text': 'evening and said he just thought that\nMike Wallace was the right man for the'}, {'start': '634.730', 'end': '637.070', 'text': "job.\nBut clearly what you're seeing is the"}, {'start': '637.070', 'end': '640.940', 'text': 'president sidelined a key aide after\nthis big signal controversy.'}, {'start': '642.470', 'end': '645.770', 'text': 'A step down for him.\nBut was it a step up for Marco Rubio?'}, {'start': '646.700', 'end': '649.190', 'text': 'Oh, certainly.\nI mean, this is a real consolidation of'}, {'start': '649.190', 'end': '653.840', 'text': 'power for Marco Rubio.\nHe becomes the first secretary of state'}, {'start': '653.840', 'end': '658.130', 'text': 'and national security advisor since\nHenry Kissinger in 1975.'}, {'start': '658.700', 'end': '662.600', 'text': "I mean, what you've seen is a really\nfascinating narrative for for Rubio."}, {'start': '662.600', 'end': '666.520', 'text': "And this was Trump's main primary\nopponent in 2016."}, {'start': '666.530', 'end': '671.240', 'text': 'They traded barbs constantly, but he has\nfigured out a way to sand down a lot of'}, {'start': '671.240', 'end': '675.740', 'text': 'his opposition and a lot of his\npositions that are quite controversial'}, {'start': '675.740', 'end': '681.230', 'text': 'with the sort of MAGA base on Iran and\nand Russia and really presented himself'}, {'start': '681.230', 'end': '686.030', 'text': "as much more of a purveyor of the of the\npresident's policies and messages."}, {'start': '686.030', 'end': '688.580', 'text': "And he's now just being given more and\nmore responsibility."}, {'start': '689.990', 'end': '691.610', 'text': 'You mentioned Iran, of course, at a\ntime.'}, {'start': '691.610', 'end': '696.290', 'text': "We're also watching negotiations with\nUkraine and Russia and China as well,"}, {'start': '696.290', 'end': '698.330', 'text': 'potentially.\nBut when it comes to Iran, have these'}, {'start': '698.330', 'end': '702.920', 'text': 'talks kind of stalled?\nWell, a lot of conflicting signals out'}, {'start': '702.920', 'end': '706.370', 'text': 'of the administration and Iran.\nWe had surprisingly in the last week or'}, {'start': '706.370', 'end': '710.090', 'text': 'two, seen both sides say they had seen\nsome positive steps.'}, {'start': '710.100', 'end': '714.050', 'text': 'That was after Trump abandoned the first\nnuclear deal in 2018.'}, {'start': '714.050', 'end': '717.230', 'text': 'And then you really saw no progress at\nall during the Biden administration.'}, {'start': '717.270', 'end': '721.610', 'text': 'So a bit of a surprise there that the\nadministration and Iran were essentially'}, {'start': '721.610', 'end': '725.020', 'text': 'singing from the same songbook.\nHowever, they did hit a snag.'}, {'start': '725.030', 'end': '728.570', 'text': 'We were supposed to see a fresh round of\ntalks this weekend.'}, {'start': '729.410', 'end': '732.950', 'text': 'Oman, which has facilitated the talks,\nis now saying those those talks are'}, {'start': '732.950', 'end': '735.320', 'text': 'going to have to be rescheduled for\nlogistical reasons.'}, {'start': '735.590', 'end': '737.990', 'text': 'The U.S.\nis saying, you know, we never agreed to'}, {'start': '737.990', 'end': '741.020', 'text': "those talks at that time.\nAnd then since then, you've seen this"}, {'start': '741.020', 'end': '745.550', 'text': 'barrage of tweets from Pete Hegseth, the\ndefense secretary, and also from'}, {'start': '745.550', 'end': '748.730', 'text': 'President Trump, ratcheting up the\npressure again on Iran.'}, {'start': '749.060', 'end': '752.450', 'text': 'So trying to look for clarity there.\nI mean, they are still very far apart'}, {'start': '752.450', 'end': '754.730', 'text': "from a deal.\nIt should be said, they're nowhere near"}, {'start': '755.000', 'end': '759.050', 'text': 'having a sort of text and draft text\nthat would be able to spell out a lot of'}, {'start': '759.050', 'end': '761.550', 'text': 'the details and tackle some of the\nthorniest issues.'}, {'start': '761.570', 'end': '765.710', 'text': 'So still a lot to learn about which\ndirection those talks are headed in.'}, {'start': '767.250', 'end': '771.480', 'text': "Bloomberg's Nick Wadhams with us.\nThe latest coming up on the Asia Drive."}, {'start': '771.480', 'end': '775.380', 'text': "We'll be previewing Australia's election\nwith the CEO of the country's biggest"}, {'start': '775.380', 'end': '778.830', 'text': 'home builder, Metricon Assessing the\nmarket implications too, with ten cap.'}, {'start': '779.220', 'end': '783.610', 'text': 'Plus, get the view on US-Japan trade\nnegotiations with Japan.'}, {'start': '783.870', 'end': '786.180', 'text': 'Much more ahead.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '806.830', 'end': '809.770', 'text': 'Australians head to the polls on\nSaturday to choose new members of'}, {'start': '809.770', 'end': '813.640', 'text': 'Parliament and of course to determine\nwho the next Prime Minister will be.'}, {'start': '813.640', 'end': '816.760', 'text': "Bloomberg's Paul Allen joins us now.\nAnd Paul, you at a polling booth in"}, {'start': '816.760', 'end': '820.690', 'text': "Sydney, which is open for early voting.\nIt's interesting, isn't it, because the"}, {'start': '820.690', 'end': '823.480', 'text': "opposition didn't even come through with\ntheir costings until yesterday."}, {'start': '823.480', 'end': '826.360', 'text': 'But it seems like a lot of Aussies have\nalready made up their minds.'}, {'start': '829.630', 'end': '832.000', 'text': 'Absolutely.\nThey have the latest data we have from'}, {'start': '832.000', 'end': '836.620', 'text': 'the Australian Electoral Commission.\nNow, 4.8 million Australians have cast'}, {'start': '836.620', 'end': '840.050', 'text': "an early vote and that's more than a\nquarter of eligible voters."}, {'start': '840.050', 'end': '842.980', 'text': "So you're quite right, a lot of\nAustralians have made up their minds."}, {'start': '843.190', 'end': '847.660', 'text': 'And when you combine that data with the\npolling data, it makes an upset quite'}, {'start': '847.660', 'end': '850.660', 'text': 'hard to imagine.\nIt looks like we are on track for some'}, {'start': '850.660', 'end': '854.140', 'text': "sort of Labor Party victory.\nSo that would be Anthony Albanese's"}, {'start': '854.140', 'end': '858.610', 'text': 'Labor government retaining power either\nin majority or the more likely outcome'}, {'start': '859.060', 'end': '862.930', 'text': 'would perhaps be a minority government.\nA much harder path to power for the'}, {'start': '862.930', 'end': '867.970', 'text': 'opposition Liberal-National coalition\nwill only hold $0.53 of the seats in the'}, {'start': '867.970', 'end': '872.200', 'text': 'House of Representatives at the moment,\n76, another for an absolute majority'}, {'start': '872.200', 'end': '874.240', 'text': 'there.\nSo the roads get a lot harder for'}, {'start': '874.240', 'end': '878.470', 'text': "Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.\nHe's also performing poorly compared to"}, {'start': '878.470', 'end': '880.990', 'text': 'Anthony Albanese in the preferred Prime\nMinister stakes.'}, {'start': '881.350', 'end': '885.400', 'text': 'And it was interesting to see how Peter\nDutton has tact during this campaign.'}, {'start': '885.820', 'end': '889.990', 'text': 'Initially he embraced a number of\nparties that would be familiar to a US'}, {'start': '889.990', 'end': '892.660', 'text': 'audience.\nThe Doge inspired cuts to the civil'}, {'start': '892.660', 'end': '897.310', 'text': 'servants, the civil Service, a plan to\nend work from home for civil servants.'}, {'start': '897.670', 'end': '902.050', 'text': 'And then came the April two tariffs,\nincluding a 10% tariff on Australia.'}, {'start': '902.620', 'end': '906.100', 'text': 'The mood on President Trump soured quite\ndramatically.'}, {'start': '906.820', 'end': '910.300', 'text': "Peter Dutton quickly kicked those\npolicies to the curb and he's moved on"}, {'start': '910.300', 'end': '916.590', 'text': 'to a much safer political ground since.\nDepending on the outcome.'}, {'start': '916.590', 'end': '920.970', 'text': 'Paul, Can we expect any major policy\nreform in the next three years in'}, {'start': '920.970', 'end': '926.220', 'text': 'Australia?\nWell, the short answer to that would be'}, {'start': '926.220', 'end': '931.620', 'text': 'no, probably not.\nWe have seen some interesting shifts in'}, {'start': '931.620', 'end': '935.580', 'text': 'terms of policy.\nPeter Dutton, I mentioned, has now'}, {'start': '935.580', 'end': '939.920', 'text': 'stopped talking about things like the\ncost of living in the past few days and'}, {'start': '939.930', 'end': '944.370', 'text': 'started talking about traditional\nIndigenous greetings ahead of major'}, {'start': '944.370', 'end': '947.310', 'text': 'public events, so-called welcome to\ncountry sorts of speeches.'}, {'start': '947.970', 'end': '952.920', 'text': "Now this suggests two things.\nFirst off, it's moving towards a more"}, {'start': '952.920', 'end': '956.640', 'text': 'politically instinctive ground,\nappealing to the base instincts of the'}, {'start': '956.640', 'end': '959.490', 'text': 'conservative base, but also a shift away\nfrom policy.'}, {'start': '960.150', 'end': '964.080', 'text': 'Cost of living still does loom large as\nthe number one issue here.'}, {'start': '964.590', 'end': '968.790', 'text': 'Both leaders have seemed comfortable\nfighting on that housing as well,'}, {'start': '968.790', 'end': '972.570', 'text': "although it is yet to be seen if there's\ngoing to be any meaningful change on"}, {'start': '972.570', 'end': '975.780', 'text': 'housing policy once this election is\nover on Saturday evening.'}, {'start': '978.480', 'end': '981.060', 'text': "Paul Allen there.\nAnd let's bring up for more analysis"}, {'start': '981.060', 'end': '984.660', 'text': "When it comes to the property issue.\nOur next guest runs Australia's largest"}, {'start': '984.660', 'end': '987.810', 'text': "residential builder.\nWith us now is Brad Dugan, who's a CEO"}, {'start': '987.810', 'end': '990.270', 'text': 'at Metricon.\nBrad, really great to have you joining'}, {'start': '990.270', 'end': '992.550', 'text': 'us.\nOf course, a day before an election that'}, {'start': '992.550', 'end': '996.930', 'text': 'has once again been characterised by the\nongoing cost of living and housing'}, {'start': '997.290', 'end': '999.570', 'text': 'affordability and availability crises.\nRight.'}, {'start': '1000.050', 'end': '1003.050', 'text': "I guess I'll start off by asking you,\nhow do you characterize this crisis?"}, {'start': '1003.050', 'end': '1007.400', 'text': "Because as Paul just touched upon, it's\nvery difficult for a government being in"}, {'start': '1007.400', 'end': '1011.420', 'text': 'power for three terms to make some of\nthese structural changes that look like'}, {'start': '1011.420', 'end': '1013.670', 'text': 'they might be necessary to really fix\nthe problem.'}, {'start': '1015.020', 'end': '1018.680', 'text': "And I think the federal government also\nisn't in charge of global leaders in"}, {'start': '1018.680', 'end': '1023.360', 'text': 'relation to this crisis.\nA lot of those levers reside at the'}, {'start': '1023.360', 'end': '1027.560', 'text': "state government level and really\nthey're working hard to try and make an"}, {'start': '1027.560', 'end': '1031.220', 'text': 'impact when in actual fact they need to\nreach into the states and make policy'}, {'start': '1031.220', 'end': '1035.940', 'text': "changes at that level.\nIs that why you're calling for more of a"}, {'start': '1035.940', 'end': '1040.980', 'text': 'sort of holistic wall of the states, as\nwell as federal approach with a national'}, {'start': '1040.980', 'end': '1043.980', 'text': 'summit that could potentially put\nthrough some of these more effective'}, {'start': '1043.980', 'end': '1046.430', 'text': "policy changes?\nYes, that's right."}, {'start': '1046.440', 'end': '1048.780', 'text': 'I think a national housing summit is\nnecessary.'}, {'start': '1049.380', 'end': '1052.620', 'text': 'A couple of years back, we did the same\nthing in relation to jobs and skills in'}, {'start': '1052.620', 'end': '1056.130', 'text': 'the post-COVID era.\nAnd we really need to bring everybody'}, {'start': '1056.130', 'end': '1059.250', 'text': 'together to get everybody in alignment\nbecause, you know, I see the federal'}, {'start': '1059.250', 'end': '1062.190', 'text': 'government working quite hard as a\nresult of announcements that have been'}, {'start': '1062.190', 'end': '1065.970', 'text': 'made to try and make an impact in this\nhousing crisis.'}, {'start': '1065.970', 'end': '1069.420', 'text': 'But a lot of the changes reside in the\nstate level, particularly around'}, {'start': '1069.420', 'end': '1072.720', 'text': 'planning reform, to try and get people\nto start faster.'}, {'start': '1072.960', 'end': '1078.030', 'text': 'Now, I see many examples each day where\nwe can do it at home in 60 days, but'}, {'start': '1078.030', 'end': '1081.150', 'text': "it's been sitting in planning for\nsometimes up to two and a half years and"}, {'start': '1082.260', 'end': '1085.020', 'text': 'we really need to get the state\ngovernments to to fall into line.'}, {'start': '1085.020', 'end': '1088.680', 'text': 'And on my recommendation in that space\nis that the federal Government needs to'}, {'start': '1089.250', 'end': '1092.610', 'text': 'really look at penalising the states in\nterms of the funding that flows from the'}, {'start': '1092.610', 'end': '1096.180', 'text': 'Federal Government to the State\nGovernment so that they can really make'}, {'start': '1096.180', 'end': '1099.450', 'text': "some change.\nFor example, if there's a infrastructure"}, {'start': '1099.450', 'end': '1103.230', 'text': 'project that needs to be funded in the\nstate government, this federal'}, {'start': '1103.230', 'end': '1107.010', 'text': 'government should be using that as a\nlever to try and get the state to'}, {'start': '1107.520', 'end': '1111.900', 'text': 'undertake significant planning reforms,\nto get people to have confidence and to'}, {'start': '1111.900', 'end': '1116.980', 'text': 'build a new home.\nAnd the industry has also been really'}, {'start': '1116.980', 'end': '1121.150', 'text': "hampered by the labor shortage that\nwe're seeing on Australia."}, {'start': '1121.610', 'end': '1126.520', 'text': 'And what do we need to do at this point\nto help with the workforce and just have'}, {'start': '1126.520', 'end': '1129.310', 'text': 'the people out there to be able to build\nthese homes?'}, {'start': '1130.920', 'end': '1133.950', 'text': 'Yes, I think we have lost an opportunity\nin the last three years.'}, {'start': '1133.950', 'end': '1137.720', 'text': 'There has been a bit of a downturn in\nactivity levels across Australia,'}, {'start': '1137.730', 'end': '1140.970', 'text': 'probably with the exception in Western\nAustralia, and we really lost that'}, {'start': '1140.970', 'end': '1144.540', 'text': 'opportunity over the last three years to\nbuild capacity in our workforce.'}, {'start': '1145.170', 'end': '1150.030', 'text': "I think there is this belief in\nAustralia that's existed for a number of"}, {'start': '1150.300', 'end': '1153.870', 'text': 'years that the only way you can be\nsuccessful is to have your children'}, {'start': '1153.870', 'end': '1157.320', 'text': 'attend university and pursue something\nalong those lines.'}, {'start': '1157.320', 'end': '1161.010', 'text': "And we really need some structural\nreform that's encouraged people back"}, {'start': '1161.010', 'end': '1164.610', 'text': 'into trades.\nThey are professions, they do have the'}, {'start': '1164.610', 'end': '1170.700', 'text': 'ability to provide great family and\noutcomes and lifestyles, and it really'}, {'start': '1170.700', 'end': '1174.150', 'text': "needs to be a significant change.\nBut unfortunately that's going to be a"}, {'start': '1174.150', 'end': '1176.760', 'text': 'long term strategy.\nWe need medium term and short term'}, {'start': '1176.760', 'end': '1181.020', 'text': 'strategies, and I think some of that in\nthe short term is looking at migration'}, {'start': '1181.020', 'end': '1185.520', 'text': 'and moving some of those necessary trade\nscenes for Australia to help us, because'}, {'start': '1185.520', 'end': '1189.450', 'text': 'undoubtedly when the economic\nenvironment improves, when the interest'}, {'start': '1189.450', 'end': '1194.820', 'text': 'rates further reduce, which we expect to\noccur in the next nine months,'}, {'start': '1196.050', 'end': '1199.890', 'text': "there's going to be a need for\nsignificantly increased number of trades"}, {'start': '1200.070', 'end': '1203.880', 'text': 'and Labor to build our homes.\nThe Property Council is forecasting that'}, {'start': '1203.880', 'end': '1208.900', 'text': "we're going to fall about 500,000 short\non that national housing target at 1.2"}, {'start': '1208.900', 'end': '1214.080', 'text': 'million, and that is just going to\nexacerbate inflationary costs on homes'}, {'start': '1214.080', 'end': '1219.960', 'text': 'if we find a solution to supply.\nYou mentioned interest rates, favorable'}, {'start': '1219.960', 'end': '1221.350', 'text': 'tax settings.\nGood.'}, {'start': '1221.370', 'end': '1224.530', 'text': "I've actually gotten on\none side of."}, {'start': '1224.970', 'end': '1225.270', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'start': '1231.900', 'end': '1235.660', 'text': "Right.\nI'll take it next."}, {'start': '1236.050', 'end': '1239.920', 'text': 'I think Heidi was asking about the tax\nsettings, but I also wanted to know'}, {'start': '1239.950', 'end': '1245.320', 'text': 'about the mortgage environment.\nTax settings first.'}, {'start': '1245.340', 'end': '1248.790', 'text': "I think what the customers need is\ncertainty, and I think that's the one"}, {'start': '1248.790', 'end': '1252.560', 'text': 'thing our government states provide is a\ncertain stable environments.'}, {'start': '1252.570', 'end': '1257.130', 'text': 'And we hear a lot of rhetoric in the\nmoment, in the in the press and also'}, {'start': '1257.130', 'end': '1261.150', 'text': 'from the potential returning Labour\ngovernment in relation to capital gains'}, {'start': '1261.150', 'end': '1264.810', 'text': 'tax, in relation to taxing the super and\nsuperannuation balances.'}, {'start': '1265.110', 'end': '1270.390', 'text': 'And all that leads to a real negative\nimpact on confidence within the within'}, {'start': '1270.390', 'end': '1273.630', 'text': 'the community.\nNow there is a lot of work being done by'}, {'start': '1273.630', 'end': '1276.380', 'text': 'the Federal Government to provide social\nand affordable housing in it.'}, {'start': '1276.630', 'end': '1281.550', 'text': 'It really is an important part of the\nhousing crisis, but really to get large'}, {'start': '1281.550', 'end': '1285.870', 'text': 'numbers of homes, we need the people in\nAustralia, we need private enterprise,'}, {'start': '1285.870', 'end': '1289.620', 'text': 'we need investors to put funding into\nAustralia to build those homes.'}, {'start': '1289.620', 'end': '1294.240', 'text': 'And creating an uncertain tax\nenvironment is not helpful in relation'}, {'start': '1294.240', 'end': '1297.540', 'text': 'to achieving that goal.\nSharon Washing your question about'}, {'start': '1297.540', 'end': '1300.330', 'text': 'mortgages.\nWe saw an interest rate cut early this'}, {'start': '1300.330', 'end': '1304.470', 'text': 'year and it really did not have any\nimpact on confidence amongst consumers.'}, {'start': '1304.470', 'end': '1308.920', 'text': "And I think that's really because, you\nknow, the cost of living crisis and"}, {'start': '1309.180', 'end': '1313.590', 'text': 'customers pressure on their home\nbudgets, the 25 basis point cut that'}, {'start': '1313.590', 'end': '1316.230', 'text': "occurred early this year didn't have any\nimpact."}, {'start': '1316.950', 'end': '1321.000', 'text': "I think we're going to need at least\nanother three impacts, I'm sorry, three"}, {'start': '1321.000', 'end': '1324.540', 'text': 'decreases and some positive sentiment\nfrom the Reserve Bank.'}, {'start': '1324.660', 'end': '1328.020', 'text': "I think there's a really hawkish and\nnegative sentiment that comes out of the"}, {'start': '1328.020', 'end': '1331.860', 'text': "Reserve Bank that really isn't inspiring\nto the Australian consumer."}, {'start': '1332.130', 'end': '1336.210', 'text': "We need both those things to happen\nbefore we start to see the demand that's"}, {'start': '1336.540', 'end': '1339.480', 'text': 'out there in the market converted into\nconfidence and action.'}, {'start': '1341.540', 'end': '1344.840', 'text': "Brad, really great to have you with us.\nHe's the CEO at Metricon."}, {'start': '1345.290', 'end': '1348.310', 'text': 'More ahead on the Asia trade.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '1364.200', 'end': '1367.200', 'text': 'Take a look at how Treasury futures are\nlooking at the Asia session.'}, {'start': '1367.230', 'end': '1371.220', 'text': 'Of course, we have seen significant\npressure overnight as well with that'}, {'start': '1371.220', 'end': '1375.570', 'text': "manufacturing activity report shrinking\nin April with President Trump's tariffs."}, {'start': '1375.600', 'end': '1379.440', 'text': "Now we have commentary coming from\nJapan's finance minister, Katsunobu"}, {'start': '1379.440', 'end': '1385.110', 'text': 'Kato, saying that the card exist, that\nthe US Treasury holdings could be used'}, {'start': '1385.350', 'end': '1389.400', 'text': 'for trade negotiations.\nBut whether or not Japan goes ahead and'}, {'start': '1389.400', 'end': '1394.290', 'text': 'uses that card is a different decision.\nRemember, there was a lot of skepticism'}, {'start': '1394.290', 'end': '1397.620', 'text': 'about U.S.\nassets, especially around China, also'}, {'start': '1397.680', 'end': '1401.760', 'text': 'potentially offloading some of those\ntreasuries as we continue with these'}, {'start': '1402.120', 'end': '1406.020', 'text': 'trade tensions around the world.\nJapan and China are the largest foreign'}, {'start': '1406.020', 'end': '1410.190', 'text': 'holders.\nSo even a hint of really politicization'}, {'start': '1410.190', 'end': '1413.520', 'text': 'could unsettle the markets.\nWe had the yields under pressure in'}, {'start': '1413.520', 'end': '1418.200', 'text': 'JGBs, the Japanese yen also under\npressure already after the BOJ held'}, {'start': '1418.200', 'end': '1421.920', 'text': 'rates steady.\nThis also as a blog flagged downside'}, {'start': '1421.920', 'end': '1427.170', 'text': 'risks to the inflation outlook, pushing\nout perhaps a timeframe of achieving'}, {'start': '1427.320', 'end': '1430.500', 'text': "their price target covenant where\nthey're really speaking to those"}, {'start': '1430.500', 'end': '1435.420', 'text': 'uncertainties because of the tariff war.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '1444.710', 'end': '1447.590', 'text': 'Breaking news out of Japan.\nWe are getting the jobless rate coming'}, {'start': '1447.590', 'end': '1453.050', 'text': 'in at 2.5% for the month of March,\nslightly higher than the previous month'}, {'start': '1453.350', 'end': '1457.700', 'text': 'and above economists expectations.\nBut we are getting the job to applicant'}, {'start': '1457.700', 'end': '1463.500', 'text': 'ratio, showing that 126 jobs are now\noffered for every 100 applicants.'}, {'start': '1463.520', 'end': '1468.350', 'text': 'It was at 124 on just the previous month\nand is slightly coming in above'}, {'start': '1468.350', 'end': '1470.840', 'text': 'expectations.\nOf course, overall is a very'}, {'start': '1470.840', 'end': '1476.360', 'text': 'structurally tight labor market here in\nJapan and that has led to more wage'}, {'start': '1476.360', 'end': '1480.260', 'text': 'hikes, also inflation.\nSo we continue to see that cycle, Heidi,'}, {'start': '1480.260', 'end': '1484.400', 'text': 'despite the fact that the BOJ had to\nhold rates in the previous decision just'}, {'start': '1484.400', 'end': '1487.310', 'text': 'yesterday because of the uncertainty\nover tariffs,'}, {'start': '1488.550', 'end': '1491.780', 'text': 'this uncertainty that sort of being\ngrappled with by central banks and by'}, {'start': '1491.780', 'end': '1495.770', 'text': "governments, particularly those that are\nheaded for elections this year, We've"}, {'start': '1495.770', 'end': '1498.680', 'text': 'spoken about Australia.\nSingaporeans also head to the polls this'}, {'start': '1498.680', 'end': '1500.600', 'text': "Saturday.\nThe country's holding the general"}, {'start': '1500.600', 'end': '1504.200', 'text': "election amid a global trade war that's\ncausing a more volatile and challenging"}, {'start': '1504.200', 'end': '1506.960', 'text': 'environment for small and open\neconomies.'}, {'start': '1506.960', 'end': '1509.570', 'text': "Bloomberg's overall Hong is standing by\nin Singapore."}, {'start': '1509.570', 'end': '1513.830', 'text': 'And so we see, you know, really\ngovernment stability has been the name'}, {'start': '1513.830', 'end': '1517.700', 'text': "of the game for Singapore, but it's\ndifficult for such an externally"}, {'start': '1517.700', 'end': '1521.150', 'text': 'vulnerable middle country in this sort\nof environment.'}, {'start': '1524.400', 'end': '1529.020', 'text': "Yeah, absolutely.\nSo it's this uncertainty that is kind of"}, {'start': '1529.020', 'end': '1532.620', 'text': 'drawing the need for political\nstability.'}, {'start': '1532.620', 'end': '1538.170', 'text': "But the stakes, don't get mistaken in\nthis election, are very, very high,"}, {'start': '1538.170', 'end': '1541.750', 'text': 'perhaps even higher than the 2020\ngeneral election.'}, {'start': '1541.770', 'end': '1547.980', 'text': 'The prime minister has already called\nfrom 10% tariffs, not actions one does'}, {'start': '1547.980', 'end': '1551.550', 'text': 'to a friend.\nAnd we know how a great shock could'}, {'start': '1551.790', 'end': '1555.330', 'text': 'implicate the global economy and those\nripple effects could turn into these'}, {'start': '1555.330', 'end': '1560.580', 'text': 'massive waves for Singapore.\nSo the ruling party that has not lost a'}, {'start': '1560.580', 'end': '1567.150', 'text': 'single election in more than 60 years is\nseeking a powerful win in order to steer'}, {'start': '1567.150', 'end': '1570.780', 'text': 'the country amid these uncertainties.\nHave a listen.'}, {'start': '1572.840', 'end': '1577.220', 'text': "Singapore's Lawrence Wong faces his\nfirst electoral test since taking over"}, {'start': '1577.220', 'end': '1582.320', 'text': 'as Prime minister and is seeking a\nstrong mandate to govern at a time of'}, {'start': '1582.320', 'end': '1585.020', 'text': 'major shifts in the global trading\norder.'}, {'start': '1585.440', 'end': '1589.970', 'text': "A system that Singapore's trade reliant\neconomy has long benefited from."}, {'start': '1590.660', 'end': '1595.040', 'text': "The country will have to navigate\nTrump's tariffs and balance relations"}, {'start': '1595.040', 'end': '1599.270', 'text': 'with China, its largest trading partner\nfor voters.'}, {'start': '1599.540', 'end': '1602.030', 'text': 'Bread and butter issues remain top of\nmind.'}, {'start': '1602.330', 'end': '1607.820', 'text': 'Singaporeans face elevated prices from\nfood to housing, though inflation has'}, {'start': '1607.820', 'end': '1611.990', 'text': 'eased and authorities have rolled out a\nslew of measures to help people cope.'}, {'start': '1612.440', 'end': '1617.420', 'text': 'Questions linger on the extent in which\nthe ruling party can ride the momentum'}, {'start': '1617.420', 'end': '1621.920', 'text': 'from handouts and subsidies into the\nelection, or whether different'}, {'start': '1621.920', 'end': '1625.220', 'text': 'generations of Singaporeans have\ndifferent priorities.'}, {'start': '1626.120', 'end': '1631.580', 'text': "The ruling People's Action Party lost\nmore seats to the Opposition in the 2020"}, {'start': '1631.580', 'end': '1637.130', 'text': 'election and saw a drop in its vote\nshare amid a political transition.'}, {'start': '1637.340', 'end': '1642.490', 'text': 'A number of ministers have recently\nannounced their retirement and the party'}, {'start': '1642.500', 'end': '1646.160', 'text': 'is fielding its largest number of new\ncandidates in recent years.'}, {'start': '1646.790', 'end': '1652.070', 'text': "Singapore's external challenges come at\na sensitive time as its leaders hand"}, {'start': '1652.070', 'end': '1660.020', 'text': 'over the reins to the next generation.\nJust to paint a picture of the external'}, {'start': '1660.020', 'end': '1665.210', 'text': "challenges, many of Singapore's key\ntrading partners face levies much higher"}, {'start': '1665.210', 'end': '1667.340', 'text': 'than 10%, so this could deplete\nshipments.'}, {'start': '1667.490', 'end': '1672.110', 'text': 'And this is a country whose trade\nvolumes are three times its GDP.'}, {'start': '1672.260', 'end': '1676.700', 'text': 'Market volatility could mean a drag on\ninvestments in this financial hub,'}, {'start': '1676.820', 'end': '1679.850', 'text': 'households potentially dialing back on\nspending.'}, {'start': '1680.000', 'end': '1683.240', 'text': 'Bloomberg Economics expects growth of\nabout 1% this year.'}, {'start': '1683.270', 'end': '1688.070', 'text': 'This is a sharp slowdown potentially\nfrom the roughly 4% a year ago and the'}, {'start': '1688.070', 'end': '1690.620', 'text': 'Government is not ruling out a\nrecession.'}, {'start': '1694.070', 'end': '1697.940', 'text': 'And a few doubt that the ruling party\nwill come out on top.'}, {'start': '1697.940', 'end': '1701.780', 'text': 'But what are we watching for in the\nmargin of victory?'}, {'start': '1705.530', 'end': '1709.160', 'text': "Yes.\nThe ruling People's Action Party has won"}, {'start': '1709.160', 'end': '1714.410', 'text': "13 general election, so that's more than\n60 years of unbroken rule."}, {'start': '1714.560', 'end': '1719.690', 'text': 'And the prime minister has said that he\nexpects a tough contest this time around'}, {'start': '1720.050', 'end': '1723.020', 'text': 'because the opposition is better\norganized.'}, {'start': '1723.030', 'end': '1728.260', 'text': "But there's a theory out there that in\ntimes of crisis, voters seek stability."}, {'start': '1728.270', 'end': '1731.570', 'text': 'This is something that has served\nSingapore well in the past.'}, {'start': '1731.690', 'end': '1736.910', 'text': "But as we've seen in recent elections\naround the world, voters delivering"}, {'start': '1736.910', 'end': '1740.150', 'text': 'blows to incumbents.\nSo this theory really going to be put to'}, {'start': '1740.150', 'end': '1742.850', 'text': "the test.\nWhat we're watching for is the vote"}, {'start': '1742.850', 'end': '1747.020', 'text': "share, as well as the number of seats\nthat the ruling People's Action Party"}, {'start': '1747.020', 'end': '1749.450', 'text': "doesn't lose more seats to the\nopposition."}, {'start': '1751.500', 'end': '1754.980', 'text': "Also on Briggs Avril Hong.\nThey're joining us from Singapore."}, {'start': '1756.600', 'end': '1759.120', 'text': "We're also watching politics in South\nKorea."}, {'start': '1759.120', 'end': '1763.880', 'text': 'That crisis deepening in the country\nafter Finance Minister Chissano resigned'}, {'start': '1763.920', 'end': '1768.840', 'text': "hours before he was due to become the\nnation's stand in leader Bloomberg Seoul"}, {'start': '1768.840', 'end': '1772.050', 'text': 'bureau editor Danny Thomas joins us now\nwith the latest.'}, {'start': '1772.050', 'end': '1778.590', 'text': 'Really becoming sort of a revolving door\nof astounding leaders at a time when'}, {'start': '1778.590', 'end': '1782.820', 'text': 'Korea faces some crucial challenges,\neven with these trade negotiations'}, {'start': '1782.820', 'end': '1787.640', 'text': 'ongoing with Washington.\nYeah, absolutely.'}, {'start': '1787.670', 'end': '1792.320', 'text': "Yesterday's news flow has been pretty\nunprecedented and even by Korean"}, {'start': '1792.320', 'end': '1796.730', 'text': 'standards.\nWe had the Supreme Court rule, quite'}, {'start': '1796.730', 'end': '1801.860', 'text': 'surprisingly,\nagainst against the frontrunner in the'}, {'start': '1801.860', 'end': '1804.700', 'text': 'presidential election.\nThat in itself was a surprise.'}, {'start': '1804.710', 'end': '1811.430', 'text': 'And then close to midnight, the the\nacting president, who was to be dikko'}, {'start': '1811.490', 'end': '1814.340', 'text': 'take on the finance minister, was going\nto be taking over as the acting'}, {'start': '1814.340', 'end': '1817.670', 'text': 'president.\nHe resigned because the current acting'}, {'start': '1817.670', 'end': '1821.970', 'text': "president and prime minister\nis joining the president's race."}, {'start': '1821.970', 'end': '1825.960', 'text': "So it's been a complete other chaotic\nday of political crisis."}, {'start': '1825.980', 'end': '1831.560', 'text': "And what's not clear on both ends of the\nspectrum is who will replace, if this"}, {'start': '1831.640', 'end': '1836.810', 'text': 'man is to back out of the race.\nAnd and the ruling party is itself in a'}, {'start': '1836.810', 'end': '1840.050', 'text': 'kind of a disarray.\nSo it really brings out some of the'}, {'start': '1840.050', 'end': '1846.230', 'text': 'worst scenarios possible in South Korean\npolitics in quite in quite a number of'}, {'start': '1846.230', 'end': '1851.560', 'text': 'decades.\nAnd Danny was talking about the enormous'}, {'start': '1851.560', 'end': '1854.750', 'text': 'amount of uncertainty both domestically\nand internationally.'}, {'start': '1854.770', 'end': '1860.980', 'text': 'What are we looking ahead to next in\nterms of what the outlook is and how the'}, {'start': '1860.980', 'end': '1864.250', 'text': 'political environment might see a little\nbit more stability soon?'}, {'start': '1866.550', 'end': '1867.060', 'text': 'Yes.\nSo'}, {'start': '1868.080', 'end': '1872.340', 'text': 'I think everybody is now focused on when\nthe Supreme Court or actually the high'}, {'start': '1872.340', 'end': '1876.480', 'text': 'court will not decide the fate of the\nopposition leader, who was the front'}, {'start': '1876.480', 'end': '1878.010', 'text': 'runner, who was seen as the next\npresident.'}, {'start': '1878.460', 'end': '1883.860', 'text': 'If the timing of that comes before the\nJune three election, then I guess, you'}, {'start': '1883.920', 'end': '1887.730', 'text': "know, there's still a chance that\nthe"}, {'start': '1888.990', 'end': '1891.810', 'text': 'opposition party may have to find a new\ncandidate and that throws completely'}, {'start': '1891.810', 'end': '1895.320', 'text': 'everything into complete chaos.\nBut if the decision comes after June'}, {'start': '1895.320', 'end': '1899.220', 'text': "three, we're still entering into\nuncharted territory, because if the"}, {'start': '1899.220', 'end': '1903.300', 'text': 'decision comes and it goes against the\npresident, who if if he becomes the'}, {'start': '1903.300', 'end': '1908.400', 'text': 'president, then the question is, can\ndoes he enjoy the immunity that ordinary'}, {'start': '1908.400', 'end': '1911.070', 'text': 'president would have enjoyed?\nAnd then it brings back to the whole'}, {'start': '1911.070', 'end': '1913.050', 'text': 'question of whether this president needs\nto move or not.'}, {'start': '1913.080', 'end': '1917.040', 'text': 'So we are really looking into pretty\nchaotic scenes from now on.'}, {'start': '1920.150', 'end': '1923.540', 'text': "Well, there's further confusion as well,\nright, because the Supreme Court also"}, {'start': '1923.540', 'end': '1927.350', 'text': 'found the presidential front runner with\nsome of these legal complications as'}, {'start': '1927.350', 'end': '1929.530', 'text': 'well.\nYeah.'}, {'start': '1931.450', 'end': '1933.250', 'text': 'Yes.\nSo I think that that is I think I think'}, {'start': '1933.250', 'end': '1935.920', 'text': 'more than what the resignation of\nfinance minister.'}, {'start': '1936.130', 'end': '1938.380', 'text': 'I think the bigger question mark is\nwhether'}, {'start': '1939.790', 'end': '1944.350', 'text': 'the presidential frontrunner was worth\ncould be having for the set back if the'}, {'start': '1944.350', 'end': '1946.660', 'text': 'high court ruling comes before the June\n30 election.'}, {'start': '1946.660', 'end': '1950.200', 'text': 'I think that is going to be a big\nconcern for the markets because a lot of'}, {'start': '1950.200', 'end': '1953.680', 'text': 'people were kind of going into the\nelection with the assumption that these'}, {'start': '1953.710', 'end': '1956.740', 'text': "are men who is the who's a clear\nfrontrunner will take over as the next"}, {'start': '1956.740', 'end': '1959.950', 'text': 'president.\nAnd if that is not happening, and if the'}, {'start': '1959.950', 'end': '1964.420', 'text': "Democratic Party doesn't have a clear\nnumber two to replace him, I mean,"}, {'start': '1964.420', 'end': '1968.320', 'text': "you're really looking at a pretty bad\ncrisis scenario in South Korea."}, {'start': '1971.020', 'end': '1975.850', 'text': "Universal video editor Danny Thomas.\nThey're going from a political crisis to"}, {'start': '1975.850', 'end': '1980.650', 'text': 'a fertility crisis in South Korea.\nWe continue to see, of course, the'}, {'start': '1980.650', 'end': '1984.280', 'text': "country's birth rate at one of the\nlowest levels around the world."}, {'start': '1984.680', 'end': '1986.950', 'text': 'Showing a little bit of a sign of\nimproving.'}, {'start': '1986.950', 'end': '1990.270', 'text': 'The birth rate did rise for the first\ntime in almost a decade.'}, {'start': '1990.340', 'end': '1992.980', 'text': 'I spoke with the mayor of the city of\nHong Nam.'}, {'start': '1992.980', 'end': '1998.200', 'text': 'Shin sang Dean about some of his plans\nto boost fertility and what more still'}, {'start': '1998.200', 'end': '2002.230', 'text': 'needs to be done.\nSong.'}, {'start': '2002.230', 'end': '2006.250', 'text': 'Them City has this new program helping\nyoung people meet each other.'}, {'start': '2006.460', 'end': '2009.820', 'text': 'Tell us a little bit about how this\nmatchmaking project came to be.'}, {'start': '2010.620', 'end': '2014.620', 'text': 'You do A push tone is all\nat the city level.'}, {'start': '2014.710', 'end': '2019.420', 'text': "We believe it's essential to act.\nHow many young men and women in Korea"}, {'start': '2019.600', 'end': '2022.960', 'text': "don't see marriage as urgent or\nnecessary?"}, {'start': '2023.710', 'end': '2029.260', 'text': "Nearly 50% think it's optional.\nThat's why improving perceptions about"}, {'start': '2029.260', 'end': '2033.400', 'text': 'marriage and creating a positive\nenvironment for young people to meet'}, {'start': '2033.940', 'end': '2039.310', 'text': 'love and build families is a\nresponsibility we older generations and'}, {'start': '2039.310', 'end': '2043.450', 'text': 'local governments must take on.\nBut to send young children.'}, {'start': '2043.780', 'end': '2048.040', 'text': 'Korea Good.\nCurrently, the government has countless'}, {'start': '2048.040', 'end': '2052.570', 'text': "scattered policies to fight against low\nbirthrates, and people don't even know"}, {'start': '2052.570', 'end': '2056.440', 'text': 'what those policies are.\nThe Presidential Committee on Aging'}, {'start': '2056.440', 'end': '2060.880', 'text': 'Society and Population Policy is a\nspecial advisory committee.'}, {'start': '2061.810', 'end': '2066.670', 'text': 'But how many times do they meet?\nNot even once a year.'}, {'start': '2067.270', 'end': '2072.400', 'text': "It's symbolic, not functional, unless\nthe president actively leads it."}, {'start': '2072.670', 'end': '2076.210', 'text': "It won't make a difference.\nThese committees have accomplished"}, {'start': '2076.210', 'end': '2079.449', 'text': "almost nothing.\nIt's just for show."}, {'start': '2080.199', 'end': '2084.620', 'text': "That's my cold, honest assessment.\nYou look down on them jumping around,"}, {'start': '2084.670', 'end': '2088.820', 'text': 'you know?\nTung the marriage since 19.'}, {'start': '2088.820', 'end': '2092.820', 'text': 'You can catch the full interview and\nWall Street week coming up Friday at 6'}, {'start': '2092.820', 'end': '2094.219', 'text': 'p.m.\nNew York time.'}, {'start': '2094.219', 'end': '2096.650', 'text': 'We have more ahead.\nIs this boom boring?'}, {'start': '2112.690', 'end': '2117.310', 'text': "We're getting the latest lines from the\nchief trade negotiator of Japan, Nobel"}, {'start': '2117.320', 'end': '2119.800', 'text': 'now coming out saying that they had\ntalks with their U.S.'}, {'start': '2119.800', 'end': '2124.990', 'text': 'counterparts for 130 minutes.\nThis is a second round of negotiations'}, {'start': '2125.080', 'end': '2127.750', 'text': 'for those tariffs coming from the Trump\nadministration.'}, {'start': '2128.080', 'end': '2132.310', 'text': "They're saying that they were able to\nhave deep discussions on the tariffs."}, {'start': '2132.350', 'end': '2137.050', 'text': 'Remember, there are 25% on steel and\naluminum, 10% across the board.'}, {'start': '2137.590', 'end': '2141.450', 'text': 'Also, some eased tariffs on cars as\nwell.'}, {'start': '2141.460', 'end': '2146.920', 'text': 'Alcazar saying that they strongly urged\nagain to exempt Japan from those'}, {'start': '2146.920', 'end': '2149.260', 'text': 'tariffs.\nOf course, Heidi, the 10% across the'}, {'start': '2149.260', 'end': '2153.550', 'text': 'board could actually go up to 24% after\nthe 90 day pause.'}, {'start': '2156.370', 'end': '2160.600', 'text': 'Well, of course, all of this confounding\na lot of countries at the moment when it'}, {'start': '2160.600', 'end': '2163.480', 'text': 'comes to dealing with the tariff or on\nthe trade war with the US.'}, {'start': '2163.480', 'end': '2166.510', 'text': "And here in Australia, we've got\nAustralia is headed to the polls voting"}, {'start': '2166.510', 'end': '2170.770', 'text': "in that national election on Saturday.\nThat's been dominated by cost of living"}, {'start': '2170.770', 'end': '2174.490', 'text': "concerns, but it hasn't escaped either\nthe shadow of the Trump trade war."}, {'start': '2174.790', 'end': '2177.850', 'text': 'The Conservative Opposition leader,\nPeter Dutton, began the campaign with a'}, {'start': '2177.850', 'end': '2181.420', 'text': 'pretty healthy poll lead.\nBut as Paul Allen reports, surveys now'}, {'start': '2181.420', 'end': '2184.570', 'text': "suggest Labor's Anthony Albanese could\nbecome the country's first prime"}, {'start': '2184.570', 'end': '2188.620', 'text': 'minister in more than 20 years to win\nback to back elections.'}, {'start': '2190.240', 'end': '2194.470', 'text': 'Saturday is Election Day in Australia\nand already more than 3 million of the'}, {'start': '2194.470', 'end': '2197.860', 'text': "country's 18 million voters have cast an\nearly ballot."}, {'start': '2198.370', 'end': '2202.780', 'text': 'For those still undecided, this election\nis boiling down to one key issue is'}, {'start': '2202.780', 'end': '2205.690', 'text': "anyone feeling that you're better off\ntoday than you were three years ago?"}, {'start': '2206.770', 'end': '2210.400', 'text': 'Cost of living and the runaway real\nestate prices are top of the domestic'}, {'start': '2210.400', 'end': '2212.740', 'text': "agenda.\nIt's a battleground where both"}, {'start': '2212.740', 'end': '2216.610', 'text': 'Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and Prime\nMinister Anthony Albanese seem'}, {'start': '2216.610', 'end': '2219.880', 'text': 'comfortable.\nTrade and foreign policy, though, have'}, {'start': '2219.910', 'end': '2224.650', 'text': 'left both leaders squirming after\nPresident Trump imposed a shock 10%'}, {'start': '2224.650', 'end': '2227.260', 'text': 'blanket tariff on all Australian\nimports.'}, {'start': '2227.860', 'end': '2232.630', 'text': 'Dutton initially copied some Trump\npolicies, including spending cuts styled'}, {'start': '2232.630', 'end': '2237.220', 'text': "on the Elon Musk's so-called Department\nof Government efficiency and ending work"}, {'start': '2237.220', 'end': '2242.170', 'text': "from home for civil servants.\nHe's since dumped those ideas and has"}, {'start': '2242.170', 'end': '2244.660', 'text': 'been distancing himself from the US\npresident.'}, {'start': '2244.780', 'end': '2249.280', 'text': "We trust the United States, and I don't\nknow the President, I've not met him."}, {'start': '2249.850', 'end': '2253.810', 'text': 'The Prime Minister obviously has been\nable to, but we all like to say you'}, {'start': '2253.810', 'end': '2255.250', 'text': "trust?\nI don't know."}, {'start': '2255.280', 'end': '2256.900', 'text': "I don't know.\nDonald Trump is my point."}, {'start': '2256.930', 'end': '2261.730', 'text': 'On the same debate stage, Albanese also\nswiftly moved on from the issue of trust'}, {'start': '2261.730', 'end': '2263.640', 'text': 'and Trump.\nI have no reason not to.'}, {'start': '2263.650', 'end': '2266.200', 'text': "I've had a couple of discussions with\nhim."}, {'start': '2266.290', 'end': '2268.570', 'text': "Do you trust China's President Xi\nJinping?"}, {'start': '2268.600', 'end': '2271.480', 'text': 'I have no reason not to.\nOther China is our major trading'}, {'start': '2271.480', 'end': '2274.200', 'text': 'partner.\nOne in four Australian jobs depends'}, {'start': '2274.210', 'end': '2277.030', 'text': "upon.\nTrade is in Australia's national"}, {'start': '2277.030', 'end': '2280.720', 'text': 'interest to have a good economic\nrelationship with China.'}, {'start': '2280.930', 'end': '2285.220', 'text': 'Australia has already made a $500\nmillion down payment to the United'}, {'start': '2285.220', 'end': '2289.540', 'text': 'States under the August Defence Pact,\nwhich will see Australia receive nuclear'}, {'start': '2289.540', 'end': '2292.480', 'text': 'submarines.\nNeither major party wants to risk'}, {'start': '2292.480', 'end': '2295.420', 'text': 'sinking that deal by alienating\nPresident Trump.'}, {'start': '2295.780', 'end': '2300.310', 'text': 'Nor risk creating a fresh round of trade\ntension with China by getting too close'}, {'start': '2300.310', 'end': '2303.520', 'text': 'to him.\nUnlike the price of eggs, those issues'}, {'start': '2303.520', 'end': '2306.190', 'text': 'are too fragile to be on the ballot this\nSaturday.'}, {'start': '2306.580', 'end': '2308.560', 'text': 'Paul Allen Bloomberg.\nSydney'}, {'start': '2310.450', 'end': '2314.170', 'text': 'Spraying customers is a director of\nstrategy and analytics at political'}, {'start': '2314.170', 'end': '2316.980', 'text': 'consultancy firm Redbridge.\nCos great to have you with us, sir.'}, {'start': '2317.620', 'end': '2321.010', 'text': 'How would you characterize the way that\nthese campaigns have been run?'}, {'start': '2321.570', 'end': '2325.990', 'text': "You I'd say that the Labor Party has\nsuccessfully turned this election"}, {'start': '2327.220', 'end': '2331.090', 'text': 'a referendum on the Opposition Leader\nPeter Dutton at the beginning of the'}, {'start': '2331.090', 'end': '2334.210', 'text': 'campaign.\nAs that previous segment touched on, the'}, {'start': '2334.210', 'end': '2335.920', 'text': 'Coalition was clearly leading in the\npolls.'}, {'start': '2336.220', 'end': '2340.000', 'text': 'They are really struggling to actually\ndo that obviously now and they look like'}, {'start': '2340.000', 'end': '2344.740', 'text': "they've been defeated on tomorrow night.\nSo I think the Labor camp has actually"}, {'start': '2344.740', 'end': '2348.250', 'text': "run a much better campaign.\nIt's interesting, particularly when you"}, {'start': '2348.250', 'end': '2352.150', 'text': 'take a look at the pre-polling data,\nparticularly as you know, certainly from'}, {'start': '2352.150', 'end': '2354.220', 'text': 'the opposition, we only had their\ncostings yesterday'}, {'start': '2355.240', 'end': '2359.770', 'text': 'from the government on Monday.\nDo you think that the major political'}, {'start': '2359.770', 'end': '2363.100', 'text': 'parties certainly are playing this wrong\nwhen it comes to how many Australians'}, {'start': '2363.100', 'end': '2364.800', 'text': 'have obviously already made up their\nminds?'}, {'start': '2364.810', 'end': '2367.150', 'text': 'Right.\nThey still are approaching this in a'}, {'start': '2367.150', 'end': '2369.610', 'text': 'very traditional way.\nThey run the campaign of a four week'}, {'start': '2369.610', 'end': '2373.900', 'text': 'period when in reality they probably\nshould be out there in the market six'}, {'start': '2373.900', 'end': '2377.470', 'text': 'months out trying to sell their message,\nparticularly when it comes to young'}, {'start': '2377.470', 'end': '2381.640', 'text': 'Australians who are going to determine\nthis result now in a very profound way.'}, {'start': '2381.970', 'end': '2387.880', 'text': '42% of all of those Australians that are\nin enrol to vote are Millennial and Gen'}, {'start': '2387.880', 'end': '2392.590', 'text': "Z, and that's a particular problem for\nthe Coalition who only gets around a"}, {'start': '2392.590', 'end': '2396.010', 'text': 'quarter of that vote.\nAnd this is a demographic shift that'}, {'start': '2396.010', 'end': '2399.160', 'text': "we've seen, Yes, for this first\nelection, but this is the first time"}, {'start': '2399.160', 'end': '2403.330', 'text': "that we've seen that shift happening.\nWhat issues then become more paramount,"}, {'start': '2403.330', 'end': '2406.270', 'text': 'Obviously this more sort of socially\nprogressive issues, you would imagine,'}, {'start': '2406.270', 'end': '2410.140', 'text': 'but also the cost of living and\ntherefore, affordability when it comes'}, {'start': '2410.140', 'end': '2414.160', 'text': 'to property is really hitting hard\nyounger people versus, you know, perhaps'}, {'start': '2414.160', 'end': '2417.130', 'text': 'the older generation that have had a\nchance to make investments.'}, {'start': '2417.340', 'end': '2420.400', 'text': 'Yeah.\nYoung Australians now are coming to the'}, {'start': '2420.400', 'end': '2424.000', 'text': "realization they're going to leave a\nquality of life that is lower than their"}, {'start': '2424.000', 'end': '2426.970', 'text': "parents and that's driving a lot of the\npolitical sentiment."}, {'start': '2427.120', 'end': '2430.480', 'text': "And it's these young Australians, for\nexample, who are going to potentially"}, {'start': '2430.480', 'end': '2433.450', 'text': 'elect up to 14 to 15 independents at\nthis election.'}, {'start': '2434.410', 'end': '2439.060', 'text': "And it's also these young Australians\nwho are basically providing the fuel for"}, {'start': '2439.060', 'end': '2443.440', 'text': 'the fuel to the fire for at least up to\n30 seats are going to be in contest'}, {'start': '2444.610', 'end': '2452.930', 'text': "that doesn't involve a major party.\nSo when it comes to really the feeling"}, {'start': '2452.930', 'end': '2458.090', 'text': 'of Australians for these two major\ncandidates, why we act on their views'}, {'start': '2458.090', 'end': '2461.750', 'text': 'about albinism, Because when we started\nwatching this campaign unfold, we'}, {'start': '2461.750', 'end': '2464.510', 'text': 'thought that the Opposition Leader\nDutton had the lead.'}, {'start': '2466.030', 'end': '2468.000', 'text': 'Hmm.\nYeah.'}, {'start': '2468.030', 'end': '2472.930', 'text': "Look, it's basically narrow.\nA choice between the least worst option."}, {'start': '2473.250', 'end': '2478.560', 'text': 'So in a lot of our surveys,\nmost Australians will define Albanese as'}, {'start': '2478.560', 'end': '2481.690', 'text': 'weak, but they will define Dutton as\narrogant.'}, {'start': '2481.710', 'end': '2485.370', 'text': 'And in that contest, you would go for\nvote for the lesser of two evils.'}, {'start': '2485.370', 'end': '2488.130', 'text': "And that's what's going on.\nBut it's also, as I touched on before,"}, {'start': '2488.130', 'end': '2493.320', 'text': 'driving that large non-major party vote\nas well, we expect close to 6 million'}, {'start': '2493.320', 'end': '2497.040', 'text': 'Australians to vote for something other\nthan the two major parties in Australia.'}, {'start': '2499.630', 'end': '2503.200', 'text': 'Our policy issues like health, for\nexample, which Prime Minister Albanese'}, {'start': '2503.200', 'end': '2508.880', 'text': 'has focused on making any difference.\nYeah, absolutely.'}, {'start': '2508.890', 'end': '2514.470', 'text': 'The the the health policies which the\nLabor government has focused on, has'}, {'start': '2514.470', 'end': '2516.660', 'text': 'resonated with young women in\nparticular.'}, {'start': '2516.990', 'end': '2520.770', 'text': "We've had in this country a very\nsignificant rising problem with regards"}, {'start': '2520.770', 'end': '2525.030', 'text': 'to voters in the outer suburbs and\nregions of the country accessing'}, {'start': '2526.440', 'end': '2530.760', 'text': 'quality health care.\nAnd obviously this is the that the focus'}, {'start': '2530.760', 'end': '2534.060', 'text': "for for the labor camp.\nAnd it's one way that we're able to to"}, {'start': '2534.390', 'end': '2537.960', 'text': 'intertwine health with the cost of\nliving, the concerns of voters.'}, {'start': '2546.030', 'end': '2549.780', 'text': 'When it comes to trade negotiations at\nthis point, given, of course, a lack of'}, {'start': '2549.780', 'end': '2554.430', 'text': 'clear leadership ahead of the elections,\nwhat are your expectations of what the'}, {'start': '2554.430', 'end': '2559.470', 'text': "next leader needs to do?\nWell, if we're going to talk about trade"}, {'start': '2559.470', 'end': '2565.890', 'text': 'and tariffs, the one driver of\nthis result, I think tomorrow night will'}, {'start': '2565.890', 'end': '2570.630', 'text': 'be Trump wanting one in five.\nMillennial and Gen Z voters have shifted'}, {'start': '2570.630', 'end': '2572.700', 'text': 'their vote over the last four or five\nweeks.'}, {'start': '2573.390', 'end': '2578.100', 'text': 'And the number one issue, according to\nour surveys, is is the Trump factor.'}, {'start': '2578.490', 'end': '2585.820', 'text': 'And and unfortunately for Peter Dutton,\nhis perceived closeness to Trump, a'}, {'start': '2585.840', 'end': '2588.870', 'text': 'Trump administration has not done him\nany favors.'}, {'start': '2589.680', 'end': '2593.430', 'text': 'What do you perceive as being the\ninfluence of the tools this time around?'}, {'start': '2593.430', 'end': '2598.920', 'text': 'Because obviously last time they were\nsort of untried, untested, but also'}, {'start': '2599.250', 'end': '2602.220', 'text': 'there was a great deal of optimism,\nright, in terms of being able to restore'}, {'start': '2602.220', 'end': '2604.500', 'text': 'that balance.\nHas that happened?'}, {'start': '2604.500', 'end': '2608.970', 'text': 'And how do you think that will play out\nfor some of these potential kingmaker'}, {'start': '2608.970', 'end': '2610.920', 'text': 'candidates like Allegra?\nYeah, absolutely.'}, {'start': '2610.920', 'end': '2613.770', 'text': "There's still a significant hunger out\nthere in the Australian electorate for"}, {'start': '2613.770', 'end': '2616.230', 'text': 'independents.\nWe expect most of these independents to'}, {'start': '2616.230', 'end': '2619.410', 'text': 'be re-elected and we also expect new\nones to be elected.'}, {'start': '2619.800', 'end': '2623.130', 'text': 'So they are contesting a number of\nothers additional seats across the'}, {'start': '2623.130', 'end': '2627.510', 'text': 'country and I would not rule out them\nwinning additional seats as well.'}, {'start': '2627.900', 'end': '2633.750', 'text': "What's your call for this result?\nLabor to win between 72 and 78 seats."}, {'start': '2633.760', 'end': '2637.650', 'text': "The magic number is 76, but that's what\nI think is going to happen tomorrow"}, {'start': '2637.650', 'end': '2638.940', 'text': 'night.\nGetting over the line with which I'}, {'start': '2638.940', 'end': '2642.890', 'text': 'thought majority and possibly minority.\nOkay, Really great to have you with us'}, {'start': '2642.910', 'end': '2646.860', 'text': 'customers as a director of strategy and\nanalytics at Red Bridge.'}, {'start': '2647.280', 'end': '2649.440', 'text': 'More ahead on the Asia trade.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '2666.230', 'end': '2670.100', 'text': "We're continuing to hear from Japan's\nchief trade negotiator, Jose Alcazar,"}, {'start': '2670.100', 'end': '2674.240', 'text': 'saying that affects and national\nsecurity were not raised as topics in'}, {'start': '2674.240', 'end': '2678.080', 'text': 'the second round of negotiations on\ntariffs with the United States.'}, {'start': '2678.800', 'end': '2682.160', 'text': "Alcazar doesn't think that affects the\nnational security are related to"}, {'start': '2682.160', 'end': '2685.850', 'text': 'tariffs.\nOf course, one stance that Japan and'}, {'start': '2685.850', 'end': '2689.750', 'text': 'other countries have held firm to the\nfact that economic and trade issues are'}, {'start': '2689.750', 'end': '2693.860', 'text': 'separate from currency issues.\nI was also saying that they did not'}, {'start': '2693.860', 'end': '2697.700', 'text': 'discuss China specifically in this\nbilateral meeting with the United'}, {'start': '2697.700', 'end': '2701.210', 'text': 'States.\nThere was a lot of concern that we might'}, {'start': '2701.210', 'end': '2704.780', 'text': 'see Washington applying pressure to\npartners to sideline China.'}, {'start': '2705.050', 'end': '2708.230', 'text': 'Alcazar also saying that they will keep\nwatching the U.S.'}, {'start': '2708.470', 'end': '2713.630', 'text': 'China developments very closely, that\nthe US and China are both key trading'}, {'start': '2713.630', 'end': '2715.480', 'text': 'partners.\nFor Japan.'}, {'start': '2715.490', 'end': '2720.650', 'text': 'Of course, the biggest exporting\ndestination for Japan is the U.S.'}, {'start': '2720.680', 'end': '2725.350', 'text': 'overtaking China back in 2023.\nBut still both of these two countries,'}, {'start': '2725.360', 'end': '2729.140', 'text': 'huge trading partners for the Japanese\neconomy Heidi.'}, {'start': '2730.310', 'end': '2733.640', 'text': 'And of course, there so much of this\ntrade uncertainty has been way across'}, {'start': '2733.640', 'end': '2735.490', 'text': 'the commodities complex as well.\nRight.'}, {'start': '2735.530', 'end': '2739.400', 'text': 'Take a look at oil, just seeing that\nrenewed slide now before the Opec+'}, {'start': '2739.400', 'end': '2742.460', 'text': 'meeting that could see an agreed upon\nsupply hike.'}, {'start': '2742.460', 'end': '2745.340', 'text': 'So really coming into the end of what\nhas been another volatile week there,'}, {'start': '2745.340', 'end': '2749.450', 'text': 'traders weighing that potential supply\nincrease from opec+ and of course the'}, {'start': '2749.450', 'end': '2754.010', 'text': 'ongoing trade war risks to demand.\nThe fresh threat of US sanctions against'}, {'start': '2754.010', 'end': '2756.890', 'text': 'Iranian flows as well is also play\nthere.'}, {'start': '2757.040', 'end': '2761.390', 'text': 'We also saw a report of another bumper\nincrease could be increase from opec+'}, {'start': '2761.390', 'end': '2764.690', 'text': "watching gold as well.\nWe've seen gold just pretty muted in"}, {'start': '2764.690', 'end': '2767.720', 'text': 'trading price action at the moment, but\nfalling to a two week low.'}, {'start': '2767.730', 'end': '2770.900', 'text': 'Now, these signs of potential trade talk\nprogress between the U.S.'}, {'start': '2770.900', 'end': '2773.390', 'text': 'and other nations, including, of course,\nhere in Asia, but also'}, {'start': '2774.650', 'end': '2777.800', 'text': 'critically with the EU as well.\nAnd that sort of set some of the demand'}, {'start': '2777.800', 'end': '2782.480', 'text': 'for haven assets, including gold.\nAlso watching some of the sort of growth'}, {'start': '2782.480', 'end': '2785.530', 'text': 'sensitive commodities and metals like\niron ore.'}, {'start': '2785.540', 'end': '2788.990', 'text': "At the moment, we're seeing pretty flat\ntrading when it comes to the Singapore"}, {'start': '2788.990', 'end': '2792.680', 'text': "pricing, but we've seen this slow loss\nof altitude for iron ore right over the"}, {'start': '2792.680', 'end': '2795.620', 'text': 'recent months.\nAnd the outlook is really to look at'}, {'start': '2795.620', 'end': '2800.050', 'text': 'further declines as we see steel\nproduction cuts expected out of China.'}, {'start': '2801.970', 'end': '2804.820', 'text': 'Right.\nThe market opens in Japan.'}, {'start': '2804.820', 'end': '2808.240', 'text': 'South Korea and Australia are next.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '2833.380', 'end': '2839.080', 'text': "This is the is your trade.\nDown to Asia's major market opens after"}, {'start': '2839.080', 'end': '2841.360', 'text': 'big earnings results from the likes of\nApple.'}, {'start': '2841.360', 'end': '2846.010', 'text': 'Amazon really showing the impact of\nthose tariffs coming from the Trump'}, {'start': '2846.010', 'end': '2848.440', 'text': "administration.\nAnd Heidi, we'll be watching Treasuries"}, {'start': '2848.440', 'end': '2853.090', 'text': "because Japan's finance ministry is now\ntalking about those holdings as being on"}, {'start': '2853.090', 'end': '2857.560', 'text': 'the table for trade negotiations.\nTruly extraordinary.'}, {'start': '2857.560', 'end': '2861.160', 'text': "And we will see that market impact,\nparticularly as we've all been wondering"}, {'start': '2861.160', 'end': '2863.710', 'text': 'whether China is going to be playing\nthat court in negotiations.'}, {'start': '2863.710', 'end': '2867.040', 'text': "But so Japan's come out and talked about\nthat as a strategy first."}, {'start': '2867.040', 'end': '2870.970', 'text': 'But Sherry, of course, also political\nuncertainties are abound when it comes'}, {'start': '2870.970', 'end': '2875.380', 'text': 'to these twin elections this weekend\nhere in Australia and also in Singapore.'}, {'start': '2877.940', 'end': '2881.600', 'text': "Yeah, we'll be watching that as we head\ntowards the vote on the weekend."}, {'start': '2881.840', 'end': '2885.770', 'text': 'Take a look at how Japan is coming\nonline as we are coming off the Bank of'}, {'start': '2885.770', 'end': '2889.610', 'text': 'Japan policy decision, holding the rate\nsteady as expected, the flagging those'}, {'start': '2889.610', 'end': '2892.700', 'text': 'downside risks to inflation.\nYou can see the Nikkei now gaining'}, {'start': '2892.700', 'end': '2895.460', 'text': 'ground for a seventh consecutive\nsession.'}, {'start': '2895.470', 'end': '2898.880', 'text': 'This is the longest winning streak since\nJanuary of last year.'}, {'start': '2898.880', 'end': '2902.810', 'text': 'We have seen the downside pressure on\nthe Japanese yen, also on GB yields'}, {'start': '2902.810', 'end': '2905.450', 'text': 'after government.\nWhen I spoke about the uncertainties'}, {'start': '2905.810', 'end': '2910.490', 'text': "around tariffs, we're hearing from the\nchief trade negotiator as well that he's"}, {'start': '2910.490', 'end': '2914.150', 'text': 'talked with his U.S.\ncounterparts and the currency and'}, {'start': '2914.150', 'end': '2916.700', 'text': 'national security were not raised as\ntopics.'}, {'start': '2916.700', 'end': '2919.340', 'text': 'They did not discuss China specifically\neither.'}, {'start': '2919.340', 'end': '2921.890', 'text': "But of course, we'll be watching what\nJapan does with those U.S."}, {'start': '2921.890', 'end': '2925.190', 'text': 'Treasury holdings.\nAnd there could be more skepticism about'}, {'start': '2925.190', 'end': '2926.540', 'text': 'U.S.\nassets going forward.'}, {'start': '2926.540', 'end': '2930.770', 'text': 'This was a big concern last month.\nTake a look at how South Korea is'}, {'start': '2930.770', 'end': '2933.410', 'text': "opening at the moment because it's\ncoming back from holidays."}, {'start': '2933.410', 'end': '2936.210', 'text': 'And of course, they are facing another\npolitical crisis.'}, {'start': '2936.210', 'end': '2940.940', 'text': 'The finance minister just resigning\nbefore just hours before he had to'}, {'start': '2940.940', 'end': '2943.520', 'text': 'become the stand in leader.\nOf course, we are headed towards a'}, {'start': '2943.520', 'end': '2946.610', 'text': 'presidential election.\nTake a look at the cost be coming online'}, {'start': '2946.610', 'end': '2951.320', 'text': 'down 2/10 of 1%.\nWe also had April, consumer prices'}, {'start': '2951.320', 'end': '2954.800', 'text': 'rising a bit more than expected year on\nyear 2.1% growth.'}, {'start': '2955.040', 'end': '2959.930', 'text': 'South Korea really are facing the\npressure on their economy, on ongoing'}, {'start': '2959.930', 'end': '2963.020', 'text': 'political crisis, the tariffs, the trade\nnegotiations as well.'}, {'start': '2963.350', 'end': '2966.410', 'text': 'Authorities coming out saying that they\nwill try to minimize a negative'}, {'start': '2966.410', 'end': '2970.520', 'text': 'political impact on the markets.\nIt will continue to monitor the'}, {'start': '2970.520', 'end': '2975.230', 'text': 'financial markets 24 hours, Heidi, as we\ncontinue also to see South Korean trade'}, {'start': '2975.230', 'end': '2978.920', 'text': 'negotiators try to achieve some sort of\nagreement with Washington.'}, {'start': '2980.660', 'end': '2983.510', 'text': 'You know what I mean?\nJust take a look as we head into, of'}, {'start': '2983.510', 'end': '2986.840', 'text': 'course, the weekend election here in\nAustralia and how markets and the'}, {'start': '2986.840', 'end': '2990.080', 'text': 'currency, as well as Aussie bonds are\ntrading at the moment.'}, {'start': '2990.080', 'end': '2993.470', 'text': "We're seeing a little bit of sideways\ntrading when it comes to the ASX, of"}, {'start': '2993.470', 'end': '2997.370', 'text': 'course, is coming off a few sessions of\npretty strong gains here.'}, {'start': '2997.370', 'end': '3001.660', 'text': 'So we are seeing perhaps a bit of lack\nof confidence as we go into that vote.'}, {'start': '3001.660', 'end': '3006.400', 'text': 'We will be expecting through the\ncontours of a result usually by Saturday'}, {'start': '3006.400', 'end': '3008.860', 'text': 'evening after polls close here in\nAustralia.'}, {'start': '3009.370', 'end': '3012.670', 'text': "But at the moment we're still seeing a\nfairly comfortable lead in the polls"}, {'start': '3012.670', 'end': '3016.300', 'text': 'from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and\nhis Labor Government.'}, {'start': '3016.840', 'end': '3020.170', 'text': "As we head into that key vote.\nOf course we've been talking about an"}, {'start': '3020.170', 'end': '3024.070', 'text': "almost, almost number of pre voting\nthat's already taking place this year"}, {'start': '3024.070', 'end': '3027.310', 'text': 'compared to previous years.\nTaking a look at the Aussie dollar at'}, {'start': '3027.310', 'end': '3032.350', 'text': "6385 at the moment, some of the calm\nthat's been restored to markets as a"}, {'start': '3032.350', 'end': '3037.240', 'text': 'result of sort of no real negative news\nflow when it comes to trade has been'}, {'start': '3037.240', 'end': '3040.810', 'text': "benefiting the Aussie there.\nAnd we're also watching the story when"}, {'start': '3040.810', 'end': '3044.080', 'text': 'it comes to oil, though still looking\npretty risk off given that we are'}, {'start': '3044.080', 'end': '3047.410', 'text': 'expecting potentially more supply from\nOPEC+ to be agreed upon.'}, {'start': '3047.950', 'end': '3050.710', 'text': "Let's bring in our next guest who says\nthese markets have become too"}, {'start': '3050.710', 'end': '3053.590', 'text': "complacent, that there's not a cushion\nfor possible downside."}, {'start': '3053.830', 'end': '3057.040', 'text': 'With us now is Jim Value lead portfolio\nmanager at ten Capture.'}, {'start': '3057.040', 'end': '3060.820', 'text': 'But always great to have you with us.\nAnd this has been a question that sort'}, {'start': '3060.820', 'end': '3066.160', 'text': "of has been front and center for me,\nwatching the relative calm that's been"}, {'start': '3066.160', 'end': '3067.610', 'text': 'restored.\nRight.'}, {'start': '3067.630', 'end': '3072.160', 'text': 'Do you think that there is a little bit\ntoo much complacency happening at the'}, {'start': '3072.160', 'end': '3077.830', 'text': 'moment, given that the, you know, the\nsort of modus operandi of policymaking'}, {'start': '3077.830', 'end': '3082.240', 'text': 'and news flow can be so volatile, would\nthis US administration'}, {'start': '3083.470', 'end': '3084.340', 'text': 'Look?\nAbsolutely.'}, {'start': '3084.340', 'end': '3086.980', 'text': 'I think, you know, the market has that\nincredibly well.'}, {'start': '3086.980', 'end': '3091.960', 'text': 'Looking back at home here in Australia,\nthe the ASX is up in the double digits'}, {'start': '3092.110', 'end': '3095.500', 'text': 'just in the last few weeks.\nI think there is a level of complacency'}, {'start': '3095.500', 'end': '3098.860', 'text': 'and that of course we are optimistic for\na trade deal.'}, {'start': '3098.860', 'end': '3103.990', 'text': 'But I think market is sort of not really\nthinking about what it might look like'}, {'start': '3104.440', 'end': '3106.780', 'text': 'and what if it takes longer to come\nthrough.'}, {'start': '3106.900', 'end': '3110.380', 'text': 'We already see in the US market some of\nthe companies that come through with'}, {'start': '3110.380', 'end': '3113.830', 'text': 'cautious guidance.\nSome have pulled the guidance, some of'}, {'start': '3113.830', 'end': '3117.040', 'text': "the share price hasn't, even though the\nshare price has reacted significantly"}, {'start': '3117.220', 'end': '3120.670', 'text': 'negative to the downside.\nBut we do think there is a you know,'}, {'start': '3120.670', 'end': '3125.410', 'text': 'investors do need to be a little bit\nmore cautious, just given that we have'}, {'start': '3125.440', 'end': '3130.060', 'text': 'just have no idea what a what does it\nlook like and when it takes and, you'}, {'start': '3130.060', 'end': '3133.600', 'text': 'know, the longer it takes, the the more\ndownside there is to the economic'}, {'start': '3133.600', 'end': '3137.080', 'text': 'reality there in the US and potentially\nfor the global growth as well'}, {'start': '3138.820', 'end': '3142.780', 'text': 'to by how you positioning that at the\nmoment to kind of account for still'}, {'start': '3143.350', 'end': '3147.340', 'text': 'potentially having to pull levers too to\nget some protection if things go south'}, {'start': '3147.340', 'end': '3150.550', 'text': "again\nyou're absolutely so look at our"}, {'start': '3150.970', 'end': '3155.470', 'text': 'portfolio is pretty agile so you know we\ndo longshore and we do believe this is a'}, {'start': '3155.470', 'end': '3157.510', 'text': 'market where you need to become a little\nbit active.'}, {'start': '3157.660', 'end': '3160.110', 'text': 'Three weeks ago we thought market was\noversold.'}, {'start': '3160.130', 'end': '3164.140', 'text': "We bought into a lot of those structural\ngrowers where earnings doesn't get"}, {'start': '3164.140', 'end': '3167.530', 'text': 'impacted and became a whole lot cheaper.\nAnd now some of them have done really'}, {'start': '3167.530', 'end': '3171.250', 'text': 'well and particularly some of the US\nbased and consumer stocks has done'}, {'start': '3171.250', 'end': '3173.460', 'text': 'really well.\nSo, you know, this is the time perhaps'}, {'start': '3173.470', 'end': '3175.870', 'text': 'to take some off the table, you know,\njust.'}, {'start': '3176.140', 'end': '3181.060', 'text': 'Just to wait to see what else to come.\nI think, you know, this market is'}, {'start': '3181.060', 'end': '3185.320', 'text': 'incredibly important to, you know, to\nstay agile and then watch for the'}, {'start': '3185.320', 'end': '3188.500', 'text': 'opportunities when they do rise.\nBut when they do arise, you got to make'}, {'start': '3188.500', 'end': '3191.770', 'text': 'sure you do have the flexibility to take\nall those opportunities.'}, {'start': '3193.770', 'end': '3195.640', 'text': "Yeah.\nLet's talk a little bit about the"}, {'start': '3195.640', 'end': '3199.240', 'text': 'flexibility.\nAre you playing any of the domestic'}, {'start': '3199.240', 'end': '3203.370', 'text': 'political news that we have now,\nelections in Australia, Singapore,'}, {'start': '3203.380', 'end': '3210.520', 'text': 'political crisis in South Korea?\nLook, I think, you know, talking about'}, {'start': '3210.520', 'end': '3215.020', 'text': 'Australia back at home are, to be quite\nfrank, the policy difference is very'}, {'start': '3215.020', 'end': '3218.980', 'text': 'minimal and obviously the market is not\nbelieving the Labor Party will be in'}, {'start': '3218.980', 'end': '3222.940', 'text': 'power for longer.\nYou know, in general the historical'}, {'start': '3222.940', 'end': '3228.510', 'text': 'track record has the ALP does have more,\nit is more stimulatory towards the the'}, {'start': '3228.520', 'end': '3231.760', 'text': 'households, towards the the small\nbusinesses.'}, {'start': '3231.760', 'end': '3236.290', 'text': "So potentially there's a bit more in a\nbit more positivity towards those"}, {'start': '3236.290', 'end': '3238.570', 'text': 'sectors.\nHowever, the policy difference is right'}, {'start': '3238.570', 'end': '3242.710', 'text': "now it's just too little.\nWe, you know, we don't really see too"}, {'start': '3242.710', 'end': '3246.280', 'text': "much significant differences.\nBut what's interesting though, we are"}, {'start': '3246.280', 'end': '3250.360', 'text': 'seeing consumer and corporate slowing\ndown into election like every other'}, {'start': '3250.360', 'end': '3252.880', 'text': "economy.\nJust there's a level of caution."}, {'start': '3253.330', 'end': '3256.390', 'text': 'So we do think that, you know, the\nquicker we can get out of the way, the'}, {'start': '3256.390', 'end': '3259.960', 'text': 'better.\nWe just need some stability and firm'}, {'start': '3259.960', 'end': '3264.400', 'text': 'outlook.\nAre you seeing any big narratives around'}, {'start': '3264.400', 'end': '3266.710', 'text': 'the earnings season?\nI mean, because when you were talking'}, {'start': '3266.710', 'end': '3270.520', 'text': 'about that caution, we continue to see\nit from the rhetoric coming from big'}, {'start': '3270.520', 'end': '3273.550', 'text': 'tech in the US as well, given the\nuncertainty over tariffs.'}, {'start': '3274.870', 'end': '3277.510', 'text': 'Absolutely.\nI think so far we already seeing'}, {'start': '3277.510', 'end': '3280.960', 'text': 'consumer facing companies having\ndowngrades and pool guidance.'}, {'start': '3281.140', 'end': '3285.900', 'text': 'The tech companies have yet to, you\nknow, to really give any firm outlook.'}, {'start': '3285.910', 'end': '3289.240', 'text': 'And they have reported good numbers, the\ntech company, but the outlook is still a'}, {'start': '3289.240', 'end': '3291.900', 'text': 'little bit vague.\nMy view is that if you look at how tech'}, {'start': '3291.900', 'end': '3296.890', 'text': 'particularly trades in in the previous\ncycles, they do track GDP growth in the'}, {'start': '3296.890', 'end': '3299.440', 'text': 'US.\nSo, you know, so we got to be cautious'}, {'start': '3299.500', 'end': '3303.610', 'text': 'for that sector as well because, you\nknow, if the consumer slows down and'}, {'start': '3303.610', 'end': '3306.910', 'text': 'corporate spending slowed down, their\nearnings will slow down, you know, and'}, {'start': '3306.910', 'end': '3308.950', 'text': 'their share price have come back quite\nquickly.'}, {'start': '3309.490', 'end': '3313.540', 'text': 'And and then the expectation is perhaps\nis a lot higher than some of the other'}, {'start': '3313.960', 'end': '3316.750', 'text': 'more cyclical sectors where people\nalready downgraded some of those'}, {'start': '3316.750', 'end': '3319.150', 'text': "earnings.\nSo, yeah, so, you know, we we're"}, {'start': '3319.150', 'end': '3322.170', 'text': 'cautious across the you know,\nessentially the US exposed the'}, {'start': '3322.180', 'end': '3327.400', 'text': 'businesses just because we have no\ncertainty what might take place in how'}, {'start': '3327.400', 'end': '3331.900', 'text': 'long it might take to get there.\nJim, why do you like much when it comes'}, {'start': '3331.900', 'end': '3335.650', 'text': 'to China and Hong Kong at the moment?\nYeah.'}, {'start': '3335.650', 'end': '3338.980', 'text': 'What do I think the valuations, the\nstory is still there.'}, {'start': '3338.980', 'end': '3344.560', 'text': 'And also, to be quite frank, I think the\nthe the positivity within China itself'}, {'start': '3344.560', 'end': '3347.440', 'text': "is actually, you know, it's doing quite\nwell."}, {'start': '3347.440', 'end': '3352.300', 'text': "Yes, tariffs, of course, it's going to\nbe the, you know, the uncertain outlook."}, {'start': '3352.300', 'end': '3356.140', 'text': 'But the government has made it very\nclear that they are going to throw money'}, {'start': '3356.140', 'end': '3359.410', 'text': 'at it and going to continue to stimulate\nto get it passed.'}, {'start': '3360.010', 'end': '3363.340', 'text': 'You know, what the tariff might look\nlike And it does look like this'}, {'start': '3363.340', 'end': '3367.090', 'text': 'negotiation might take longer.\nSo but our view is that, you know, China'}, {'start': '3367.090', 'end': '3370.810', 'text': 'domestic economy is doing well.\nHong Kong is doing as a consequence is'}, {'start': '3371.110', 'end': '3375.250', 'text': 'is doing better and particularly coming\noff, you know, a lot of very, very low'}, {'start': '3375.250', 'end': '3378.580', 'text': 'base relative to equities like the US\nequity market.'}, {'start': '3380.990', 'end': '3384.590', 'text': "As the trade negotiations continue,\nwe're hearing from Japan that perhaps"}, {'start': '3384.590', 'end': '3387.530', 'text': 'their U.S.\nTreasury holdings might be on the table,'}, {'start': '3387.530', 'end': '3392.810', 'text': "not necessarily that they'll use us as a\nnegotiating tool, but just this trend"}, {'start': '3392.810', 'end': '3395.480', 'text': 'where we continue to see skepticism over\nU.S.'}, {'start': '3395.480', 'end': '3397.730', 'text': 'assets.\nDo you expect that to continue?'}, {'start': '3397.730', 'end': '3400.130', 'text': 'And what could be the implications for\nthe U.S.'}, {'start': '3400.130', 'end': '3406.010', 'text': 'bond markets and just the dollar?\nYeah, look, to be honest, I think we'}, {'start': '3406.010', 'end': '3409.460', 'text': 'will have skepticism just as we go\nthrough this trade negotiation.'}, {'start': '3409.610', 'end': '3412.580', 'text': "But I'm yet to call that the end of the\nU.S."}, {'start': '3412.580', 'end': '3415.760', 'text': 'exceptionalism or, you know, the safe\nhaven status of the U.S.'}, {'start': '3415.760', 'end': '3417.770', 'text': 'bond and the like and U.S.\ndollar and the like.'}, {'start': '3417.950', 'end': '3424.010', 'text': "I think it's you know, it's too early to\ncall for any of those those big, you"}, {'start': '3424.010', 'end': '3428.750', 'text': "know, big, big thematic for for decades.\nYou know, I think right now it's just a"}, {'start': '3428.750', 'end': '3431.570', 'text': 'bit of uncertainty once we get past it.\nYou know, U.S.'}, {'start': '3431.570', 'end': '3433.760', 'text': 'dollar is still one of the most watched\nU.S.'}, {'start': '3433.790', 'end': '3436.550', 'text': 'dollar U.S.\ntreasuries, one of the most ambiguous'}, {'start': '3436.910', 'end': '3441.350', 'text': "sort of asset class in the world.\nIt's you know, we it's just very"}, {'start': '3441.350', 'end': '3447.350', 'text': 'difficult to replace those and their\nstatus despite short term volatility.'}, {'start': '3447.500', 'end': '3451.010', 'text': 'And we know the short term volatility\nhas been created by the trade'}, {'start': '3451.010', 'end': '3455.480', 'text': 'uncertainty and by the uncertainty, the\nvolatility in the equity market as well'}, {'start': '3455.480', 'end': '3460.880', 'text': 'because of the risk parity trade.\nBut I do think that once we get past'}, {'start': '3460.880', 'end': '3464.660', 'text': 'that period, we still do think there\nwill be a trade deal, but it just might'}, {'start': '3464.660', 'end': '3467.870', 'text': 'be looking a little bit different from\nwhat everyone thought, too, to start'}, {'start': '3467.870', 'end': '3471.590', 'text': 'with.\nAnd then once we have that certainty, we'}, {'start': '3471.590', 'end': '3474.530', 'text': 'can move forward.\nAnd and I do think that US will return'}, {'start': '3474.530', 'end': '3479.330', 'text': 'to its previous status as the key core\nsafe haven asset.'}, {'start': '3481.550', 'end': '3485.990', 'text': 'Kimberly, always good to talk to you.\nLead portfolio manager at ten CAP.'}, {'start': '3486.560', 'end': '3489.050', 'text': "And we're watching those Apple suppliers\nin the Asia session."}, {'start': '3489.050', 'end': '3493.760', 'text': 'Of course, we got the earnings report\nand they reported worse than expected'}, {'start': '3493.760', 'end': '3497.060', 'text': 'sales in a very important growth market.\nChina.'}, {'start': '3497.060', 'end': '3500.180', 'text': 'They also warned that tariffs could be\nincreasing costs this quarter.'}, {'start': '3500.180', 'end': '3505.910', 'text': "And we're talking about the likes of\n$900 million estimated by Apple in cost"}, {'start': '3505.910', 'end': '3510.920', 'text': 'increases because of these Trump tariffs\nin the third quarter.'}, {'start': '3511.100', 'end': '3514.790', 'text': 'And we know also that, of course, Apple\nhas been struggling with artificial'}, {'start': '3514.790', 'end': '3518.030', 'text': "intelligence development.\nTheir iPhones, the latest ones, haven't"}, {'start': '3518.030', 'end': '3520.700', 'text': 'necessarily been that different from\npast models.'}, {'start': '3520.700', 'end': '3524.120', 'text': 'You can see right now when it comes to\nthose Apple suppliers, a little bit of a'}, {'start': '3524.120', 'end': '3524.990', 'text': 'mixed picture.\nOf course.'}, {'start': '3524.990', 'end': '3528.320', 'text': 'We have a lot of other news, Heidi, to\ncontend with today.'}, {'start': '3529.400', 'end': '3533.390', 'text': "Yes, it is.\nIt's certainly a lot for investors to"}, {'start': '3533.390', 'end': '3536.120', 'text': 'contend with.\nThat also means we have a lot to get'}, {'start': '3536.120', 'end': '3539.960', 'text': 'through when it comes to the Asia trade.\nIt is the final day of campaigning for'}, {'start': '3540.290', 'end': '3542.780', 'text': "Australia's politicians headed into the\nelection."}, {'start': '3542.780', 'end': '3547.040', 'text': 'Polls are suggesting a comfortable lead\nwhen it comes to Prime Minister Anthony'}, {'start': '3547.040', 'end': '3550.850', 'text': 'Albanese, but that risk of a minority\ngovernment is still there.'}, {'start': '3550.850', 'end': '3554.300', 'text': 'We take a look at the big issues and the\npotential implications next.'}, {'start': '3555.290', 'end': '3556.490', 'text': 'This is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '3577.880', 'end': '3580.850', 'text': 'Australians head to the polls on\nSaturday to choose a new government and'}, {'start': '3580.850', 'end': '3583.070', 'text': "to determine who'll be the next prime\nMinister."}, {'start': '3583.100', 'end': '3587.630', 'text': 'Singaporeans are also voting at the same\ntime the Trump trade war looming large'}, {'start': '3587.630', 'end': '3591.350', 'text': "over both open economies.\nBloomberg's Paul Allen is in Sydney and"}, {'start': '3591.350', 'end': '3595.790', 'text': 'April Hong joins us now from Singapore.\nAnd Paul, as we head into this vote,'}, {'start': '3595.790', 'end': '3600.110', 'text': "you're at a polling booth in Sydney's\nopen for early voting and there's been a"}, {'start': '3600.110', 'end': '3604.040', 'text': 'lot of enthusiasm because it feels like\na lot of Australians have already made'}, {'start': '3604.040', 'end': '3609.020', 'text': 'up their minds.\nYeah, absolutely they have.'}, {'start': '3609.020', 'end': '3612.110', 'text': "And even this morning we've had just a\nsteady stream of people trickling into"}, {'start': '3612.110', 'end': '3616.280', 'text': "this voting booth in downtown Sydney and\nthat's been the case for the past ten"}, {'start': '3616.280', 'end': '3620.450', 'text': 'days or so.\n4.8 million eligible voters have now'}, {'start': '3620.450', 'end': '3623.970', 'text': "cast their vote ahead of Saturday's\nofficial polls."}, {'start': '3623.970', 'end': '3627.860', 'text': "So that's more than a quarter of the\nvoting population here in Australia."}, {'start': '3627.860', 'end': '3630.950', 'text': 'So a lot of voters already made up their\nminds.'}, {'start': '3630.950', 'end': '3634.640', 'text': "And when you combine that with some of\nthe polling data we've seen, it really"}, {'start': '3634.640', 'end': '3638.780', 'text': 'does suggest that we are going to see a\nreturn of the Albanese Labor government,'}, {'start': '3638.780', 'end': '3643.460', 'text': 'either a majority or perhaps more likely\na minority government with support from'}, {'start': '3643.460', 'end': '3646.850', 'text': "some of those minor parties.\nAnd it's just a path to victory for"}, {'start': '3646.850', 'end': '3649.670', 'text': "Peter Dutton's conservative coalition.\nIs that much harder?"}, {'start': '3650.030', 'end': '3655.520', 'text': 'The currently sitting on 53 seats, 76 is\nneeded for a majority in the House of'}, {'start': '3655.520', 'end': '3658.700', 'text': "Representatives, so they're going to\nhave to win back everything they lost in"}, {'start': '3658.700', 'end': '3664.550', 'text': '2022 and more besides to win government.\nSo the path to power for Peter Dutton'}, {'start': '3664.550', 'end': '3667.580', 'text': 'looking a lot harder.\nLooks like Anthony Albanese almost'}, {'start': '3667.580', 'end': '3671.510', 'text': 'certainly to become the first Prime\nMinister in Australia to be re-elected'}, {'start': '3671.510', 'end': '3677.510', 'text': 'in quite a number of years.\nDepending on the outcome of the'}, {'start': '3677.510', 'end': '3681.590', 'text': 'elections, can we expect any major\npolicy reforms in the next three years'}, {'start': '3681.590', 'end': '3687.230', 'text': 'in Australia?\nThe watchword of this election really'}, {'start': '3687.230', 'end': '3692.630', 'text': 'seems to have been policy timidity.\nThe main issue has been cost of living.'}, {'start': '3693.080', 'end': '3697.010', 'text': 'Both major parties have put forward\nplans to deal with that various types of'}, {'start': '3697.010', 'end': '3700.310', 'text': 'tax relief.\nThe housing issue always looms large in'}, {'start': '3700.310', 'end': '3702.980', 'text': 'Australia.\nBoth major parties have put forward'}, {'start': '3702.980', 'end': '3707.810', 'text': 'competing visions on that as well.\nBut even those housing reforms do seem'}, {'start': '3707.810', 'end': '3710.600', 'text': 'somewhat timid.\nYou would have to ask some questions'}, {'start': '3710.600', 'end': '3715.070', 'text': 'about whether or not they are actually\ngoing to be fulfilled after the election'}, {'start': '3715.130', 'end': '3719.420', 'text': 'as well, because the last big housing\nreform package that was taken to'}, {'start': '3719.420', 'end': '3724.310', 'text': 'Australians in 2019 was the removal of\ncontroversial tax breaks like negative'}, {'start': '3724.310', 'end': '3726.800', 'text': 'gearing.\nThe Labor leader Bill Shorten, went on'}, {'start': '3726.800', 'end': '3732.620', 'text': 'to lose that election quite heavily and\nScott Morrison won in a surprise upset'}, {'start': '3732.620', 'end': '3736.430', 'text': 'win.\nSo policy coverage around housing tends'}, {'start': '3736.520', 'end': '3741.350', 'text': "not to be rewarded in Australia.\nAnd so really we've seen some small"}, {'start': '3741.350', 'end': '3743.540', 'text': 'targets here.\nAnd as you heard from June by earlier,'}, {'start': '3744.050', 'end': '3748.490', 'text': 'there was a sense that people just want\nto see policy safety in an era of'}, {'start': '3748.490', 'end': '3751.640', 'text': "exogenous shocks like we've had from\nPresident Trump's trade war."}, {'start': '3751.910', 'end': '3755.360', 'text': "That really does tend to favour\nincumbents and that's reflected in the"}, {'start': '3755.360', 'end': '3757.820', 'text': 'early voting as well.\nA lot of Australians just seem to want'}, {'start': '3757.820', 'end': '3763.680', 'text': "to get this election out of the way.\nBloomberg's Paul Allen there as we also"}, {'start': '3763.680', 'end': '3767.580', 'text': 'turned to Singapore in April.\nI mean, Singapore is holding a general'}, {'start': '3767.580', 'end': '3771.240', 'text': "election amid this global trade war\nthat's causing a more volatile and"}, {'start': '3771.240', 'end': '3774.870', 'text': "challenging environment.\nWhat's at stake here, especially for the"}, {'start': '3774.870', 'end': '3781.660', 'text': 'ruling party?\nAbsolutely, Cherie, A volatile'}, {'start': '3781.660', 'end': '3785.680', 'text': 'environment, as you say.\nSo the stakes for the ruling party are'}, {'start': '3785.680', 'end': '3790.970', 'text': 'incredibly high, perhaps even higher\nthan the last general election in 2020.'}, {'start': '3790.990', 'end': '3796.030', 'text': "The prime minister already not mincing\nhis words, slamming Trump's 10% tariffs"}, {'start': '3796.030', 'end': '3800.470', 'text': "as not actions one does to a friend.\nAnd the trade shock that we're seeing"}, {'start': '3800.470', 'end': '3804.550', 'text': 'potentially having ripple effects on the\nglobal economy that could affect'}, {'start': '3804.550', 'end': '3808.750', 'text': 'Singapore hit it hard.\nThe ruling party in this environment is'}, {'start': '3808.750', 'end': '3814.000', 'text': 'seeking a strong mandate to steer the\ncountry through these uncertainties.'}, {'start': '3814.030', 'end': '3818.550', 'text': "Have a listen.\nSingapore's Lawrence Wong faces his"}, {'start': '3818.550', 'end': '3823.230', 'text': 'first electoral test since taking over\nas Prime minister and is seeking a'}, {'start': '3823.230', 'end': '3828.180', 'text': 'strong mandate to govern at a time of\nmajor shifts in the global trading'}, {'start': '3828.180', 'end': '3831.390', 'text': "order.\nA system that Singapore's trade reliant"}, {'start': '3831.390', 'end': '3835.980', 'text': 'economy has long benefited from.\nThe country will have to navigate'}, {'start': '3835.980', 'end': '3841.080', 'text': "Trump's tariffs and balance relations\nwith China, its largest trading partner"}, {'start': '3841.980', 'end': '3845.130', 'text': 'for voters.\nBread and butter issues remain top of'}, {'start': '3845.130', 'end': '3848.490', 'text': 'mind.\nSingaporeans face elevated prices from'}, {'start': '3848.490', 'end': '3853.530', 'text': 'food to housing, though inflation has\neased and authorities have rolled out a'}, {'start': '3853.530', 'end': '3858.450', 'text': 'slew of measures to help people cope.\nQuestions linger on the extent in which'}, {'start': '3858.450', 'end': '3863.460', 'text': 'the ruling party can ride the momentum\nfrom handouts and subsidies into the'}, {'start': '3863.460', 'end': '3867.480', 'text': 'election, or whether different\ngenerations of Singaporeans have'}, {'start': '3867.480', 'end': '3872.040', 'text': "different priorities.\nThe ruling People's Action Party lost"}, {'start': '3872.040', 'end': '3878.010', 'text': 'more seats to the Opposition in the 2020\nelection and saw a drop in its vote'}, {'start': '3878.010', 'end': '3883.080', 'text': 'share amid a political transition.\nA number of ministers have recently'}, {'start': '3883.080', 'end': '3888.150', 'text': 'announced their retirement and the PAP\nis fielding its largest number of new'}, {'start': '3888.150', 'end': '3892.980', 'text': "candidates in recent years.\nSingapore's external challenges come at"}, {'start': '3892.980', 'end': '3898.260', 'text': 'a sensitive time as its leaders hand\nover the reins to the next generation.'}, {'start': '3901.590', 'end': '3905.910', 'text': "And just to give you a sense of these\nexternal challenges, many of Singapore's"}, {'start': '3905.910', 'end': '3912.000', 'text': 'key trading partners face high levels,\neven higher than the 10% that could be'}, {'start': '3912.000', 'end': '3916.290', 'text': 'imposed on Singapore currently and in\nthis environment.'}, {'start': '3916.740', 'end': '3922.650', 'text': 'Note that for Singapore, the trading\nvolumes are three times as GDP, so'}, {'start': '3922.650', 'end': '3927.090', 'text': 'incredibly significant.\nAnd of course, we also know how the'}, {'start': '3927.090', 'end': '3930.560', 'text': 'government here has not ruled out a\nrecession.'}, {'start': '3930.570', 'end': '3933.010', 'text': 'So a lot at stake at this point.\nBut.'}, {'start': '3935.360', 'end': '3937.850', 'text': 'Of course, when it comes to Singapore,\nthere are few that doubt that the ruling'}, {'start': '3937.850', 'end': '3942.860', 'text': 'party will come out on top, but margins\nhave been deteriorating in the last two'}, {'start': '3942.860', 'end': '3944.840', 'text': 'years.\nSo what are we watching for this time?'}, {'start': '3948.460', 'end': '3951.580', 'text': 'Yeah.\nSo for the ruling party, this is a party'}, {'start': '3951.580', 'end': '3957.490', 'text': "that's won 13 general elections, meaning\nthey've got a string of unbroken rule"}, {'start': '3957.490', 'end': '3962.470', 'text': 'for more than 60 years.\nAnd the Prime Minister has noted that he'}, {'start': '3962.470', 'end': '3967.150', 'text': 'expects a tough contest this time around\nbecause the opposition is better'}, {'start': '3967.150', 'end': '3969.610', 'text': 'organized.\nThere is a theory out there that in'}, {'start': '3969.610', 'end': '3973.780', 'text': 'times of crisis, voters seek stability.\nThis is something that has served the'}, {'start': '3973.780', 'end': '3978.640', 'text': "ruling party well in the past.\nBut as we've seen in elections the world"}, {'start': '3978.640', 'end': '3982.750', 'text': 'over recently, that voters have\ndelivered blows to the incumbent.'}, {'start': '3982.760', 'end': '3985.930', 'text': 'So this is a theory that will likely be\nput to the test.'}, {'start': '3985.990', 'end': '3989.680', 'text': "Amid all this, we're going to be\nwatching the vote share, as well as the"}, {'start': '3989.680', 'end': '3993.700', 'text': "number of seats that the ruling party\ndoesn't lose more seats to the"}, {'start': '3993.700', 'end': '3998.870', 'text': "opposition Heidi.\nIt's a real home there in Singapore."}, {'start': '3998.880', 'end': '4001.780', 'text': 'And as we mentioned, top of mind is a\ntrade war when it comes to all these'}, {'start': '4001.780', 'end': '4003.340', 'text': 'elections that are taking place this\nyear.'}, {'start': '4003.340', 'end': '4007.900', 'text': "But we are now hearing from Beijing,\nChina, saying that it's conducting an"}, {'start': '4007.900', 'end': '4010.210', 'text': 'assessment when it comes to U.S.\ntrade talks.'}, {'start': '4010.210', 'end': '4014.050', 'text': "It's currently evaluating possible U.S.\ntrade talks through a statement that is"}, {'start': '4014.050', 'end': '4016.690', 'text': 'just released on US-China trade\nnegotiations.'}, {'start': '4016.900', 'end': '4020.020', 'text': "Beijing they're urging the U.S.\nto correct mistakes when it comes to"}, {'start': '4020.020', 'end': '4024.730', 'text': 'tariffs and that the U.S.\nshould show sincerity if it wants'}, {'start': '4025.180', 'end': '4029.110', 'text': 'potential trade talks.\nAnd we saw actually just in the previous'}, {'start': '4029.110', 'end': '4034.060', 'text': 'day that China, through the state media,\nCCTV, confirming that the U.S.'}, {'start': '4034.060', 'end': '4037.420', 'text': 'has reached out to China to initiate\nthese tariff talks through various'}, {'start': '4037.420', 'end': '4040.390', 'text': 'channels.\nIn terms of these massive tariffs that'}, {'start': '4040.390', 'end': '4044.290', 'text': 'have been imposed on China, of course,\nand that was a first even acknowledgment'}, {'start': '4044.290', 'end': '4048.790', 'text': 'of that happening from the Chinese side.\nDespite various acknowledgements and the'}, {'start': '4048.790', 'end': '4053.170', 'text': "narrative that we've heard from\nPresident Trump and Treasury Secretary"}, {'start': '4053.770', 'end': '4057.190', 'text': 'Scott Bessant there as well at the\nmoment, hearing China currently'}, {'start': '4057.190', 'end': '4061.060', 'text': 'evaluating the possibility of trade\ntalks with the U.S..'}, {'start': '4061.090', 'end': '4062.380', 'text': 'This is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '4070.930', 'end': '4073.180', 'text': 'In case you missed it on Bloomberg Open\ninterest.'}, {'start': '4073.630', 'end': '4077.380', 'text': 'Some sense in these crazy markets.\nI hope they turn around, though.'}, {'start': '4077.380', 'end': '4081.730', 'text': "You know because my case I'm looking at\nmy for on my retirement and I'm thinking"}, {'start': '4082.410', 'end': '4087.460', 'text': 'for decades to your retirement account.\nI cannot say that enough.'}, {'start': '4087.760', 'end': '4092.130', 'text': 'You need to find a new target, just\nmaybe a new future.'}, {'start': '4092.140', 'end': '4095.140', 'text': "I'll be standing next to Paul Sweeney as\na greeter at Wal-Mart."}, {'start': '4095.170', 'end': '4097.649', 'text': 'You know, in our seventies, it was open\ninterest.'}, {'start': '4097.660', 'end': '4098.859', 'text': 'Five days.'}, {'start': '4107.340', 'end': '4110.939', 'text': "It's this ongoing challenge of what do\nthey charge that that's right for their"}, {'start': '4110.939', 'end': '4114.270', 'text': "business model.\n90% of what they're going to make in"}, {'start': '4114.270', 'end': '4117.810', 'text': "life is coming from the road.\nSo it's their financial business."}, {'start': '4118.410', 'end': '4120.390', 'text': "But where do they find that line, where\nit's accessible?"}, {'start': '4120.630', 'end': '4123.750', 'text': "The fan feels connected to them.\nThey don't feel like they're over"}, {'start': '4123.750', 'end': '4127.170', 'text': "gouging.\nAnd it's and it's slowly moving up over"}, {'start': '4127.170', 'end': '4129.180', 'text': 'time.\nAnd that creates a lot of the social'}, {'start': '4129.180', 'end': '4134.130', 'text': 'news and tension that exists in the in\nthat what is the right price that you'}, {'start': '4134.130', 'end': '4137.520', 'text': 'can deliver supply to man and keep fans\nhappy.'}, {'start': '4137.529', 'end': '4140.640', 'text': 'Right.\nAnd you guys end up sort of having to'}, {'start': '4140.640', 'end': '4144.090', 'text': "bear the brunt of it, even though, as\nyou like to remind people, you don't"}, {'start': '4144.090', 'end': '4146.310', 'text': 'actually set the pricing.\nAnd by when I say you guys, I mean'}, {'start': '4146.310', 'end': '4149.370', 'text': 'Ticketmaster, Our job is ultimately to\nput that show on.'}, {'start': '4149.670', 'end': '4153.930', 'text': 'Figure out how to sell and fill every\nseat and yes, probably take the punch in'}, {'start': '4153.930', 'end': '4157.109', 'text': "the head\nwhen someone's mad about the price or,"}, {'start': '4157.380', 'end': '4162.210', 'text': 'you know, we kind of live in this rinse\nand repeat every, you know, ten times a'}, {'start': '4162.210', 'end': '4165.600', 'text': "year, let's call it, you know, just to\nreset, reset the game here."}, {'start': '4165.870', 'end': '4169.170', 'text': "95% of shows don't sell out.\nYou don't hear about those."}, {'start': '4169.500', 'end': '4173.430', 'text': 'Those are priced under $100.\nEveryone is happy they got a ticket.'}, {'start': '4173.430', 'end': '4176.189', 'text': "There's no drama.\nUnfortunately, those ten times a year"}, {'start': '4177.210', 'end': '4180.630', 'text': 'when you have 10 million people trying\nto buy a million Oasis tickets, you'}, {'start': '4180.630', 'end': '4184.439', 'text': "know, there's no nice way to tell 9\nmillion passionate fans."}, {'start': '4184.439', 'end': '4186.120', 'text': 'Sorry.\nStores closed.'}, {'start': '4198.830', 'end': '4202.580', 'text': 'We continue to see the latest trade\nheadlines around Japan as well.'}, {'start': '4202.590', 'end': '4206.630', 'text': 'The foreign ministry now speaking in\nWashington, saying that they will'}, {'start': '4206.630', 'end': '4209.330', 'text': 'continue to call for all tariffs\nexemptions.'}, {'start': '4209.330', 'end': '4212.750', 'text': "Of course, there's a second round of\nnegotiations with U.S."}, {'start': '4212.750', 'end': '4215.450', 'text': 'have just happened.\nThe officials saying that they will try'}, {'start': '4215.450', 'end': '4218.870', 'text': 'to get an agreement as soon as possible\nand that the leaders of both countries'}, {'start': '4218.870', 'end': '4221.810', 'text': 'will be expected to announce a final\ndeal.'}, {'start': '4221.990', 'end': '4224.510', 'text': "Let's bring in Bloomberg senior editor\nBrian Stelter."}, {'start': '4224.510', 'end': '4228.380', 'text': 'Brian, because we also had comments from\nYossi Kurzawa, the chief trade'}, {'start': '4228.380', 'end': '4230.690', 'text': 'negotiator, about where this could be\nheaded.'}, {'start': '4230.930', 'end': '4234.890', 'text': 'What caught the attention of investors,\nat least today, has been the whole thing'}, {'start': '4234.890', 'end': '4238.490', 'text': 'about Japan holding U.S.\ntreasuries, that that was on the table,'}, {'start': '4238.490', 'end': '4240.260', 'text': 'not necessarily that they were going to\nuse it.'}, {'start': '4240.530', 'end': '4242.720', 'text': 'Yeah.\nSo, I mean, these these are two separate'}, {'start': '4242.720', 'end': '4245.420', 'text': 'stories.\nSo we had a bank of headlines from'}, {'start': '4245.750', 'end': '4250.010', 'text': 'Alcazar who finished more than 2 hours\nof discussions with his counterparts in'}, {'start': '4250.010', 'end': '4253.190', 'text': 'Washington.\nAnd I think the takeaway from from what'}, {'start': '4253.190', 'end': '4257.270', 'text': 'he said was it was vaguely optimistic.\nHe said he thinks the talks are going to'}, {'start': '4257.270', 'end': '4261.890', 'text': 'gain momentum in the middle of this\nmonth, which sounds like they agreed to'}, {'start': '4261.920', 'end': '4265.670', 'text': 'continue to work toward an agreement.\nHe also said, though, that a lot still'}, {'start': '4265.670', 'end': '4269.750', 'text': 'remains very vague.\nNeeds to be made more concrete ahead of'}, {'start': '4269.750', 'end': '4272.390', 'text': 'the talks.\nWe thought Japan might talk about'}, {'start': '4272.930', 'end': '4277.040', 'text': 'relaxing some of the procedures for\nimporting cars, which would help the'}, {'start': '4277.040', 'end': '4278.870', 'text': 'U.S.\nor buying more U.S.'}, {'start': '4278.870', 'end': '4283.070', 'text': "corn or soybeans if we didn't get\nanything like that from Alcazar."}, {'start': '4283.080', 'end': '4285.650', 'text': "So it seems like there's a lot that's\nvery vague."}, {'start': '4286.040', 'end': '4291.680', 'text': "Now, shifting to the Treasury's story,\nFinance Minister Kato, in a TV"}, {'start': '4291.680', 'end': '4296.750', 'text': 'appearance this morning, said that it\nwas a card that could be played, but'}, {'start': '4296.750', 'end': '4298.970', 'text': 'whether to use that card is another\nissue.'}, {'start': '4299.360', 'end': '4304.310', 'text': 'Very hard to know how serious he was\nabout talking about possibly using'}, {'start': '4304.310', 'end': '4308.810', 'text': 'treasuries in the negotiations.\nBut but just saying it is is kind of'}, {'start': '4308.810', 'end': '4312.590', 'text': 'puts the fear into the U.S.\nbecause Japan holds more than'}, {'start': '4312.590', 'end': '4314.930', 'text': "$1,000,000,000,000 of treasuries.\nIt's the biggest holder."}, {'start': '4315.530', 'end': '4319.220', 'text': 'Back in 1997.\nPrime Minister Hashimoto threatened to'}, {'start': '4319.220', 'end': '4322.460', 'text': 'use selling treasuries in his talks to\nthe U.S.'}, {'start': '4322.460', 'end': '4324.770', 'text': 'and it caused a lot of panic in the\nmarkets.'}, {'start': '4324.770', 'end': '4329.960', 'text': "So there's, you know, historical context\nfor this that that could make it a very"}, {'start': '4329.960', 'end': '4332.930', 'text': 'serious issue.\nBut right now, the feeling is that as'}, {'start': '4332.930', 'end': '4336.040', 'text': 'you continue to say, nothing specific\nhas come out.'}, {'start': '4336.050', 'end': '4338.630', 'text': "Right.\nAnd yet they're saying they want to get"}, {'start': '4338.630', 'end': '4342.530', 'text': 'to a final deal as soon as possible and\nthat the leaders will announce it.'}, {'start': '4343.100', 'end': '4345.860', 'text': 'What indication that that give us of the\ntime frame here?'}, {'start': '4346.130', 'end': '4349.070', 'text': 'Yeah.\nSo I think one of the questions is what'}, {'start': '4349.070', 'end': '4352.220', 'text': 'does it mean exactly when they talk\nabout a deal or an agreement?'}, {'start': '4352.220', 'end': '4355.280', 'text': 'Because I think to actually get a very\nspecific'}, {'start': '4356.480', 'end': '4360.770', 'text': "agreement that's wide ranging on trade\nis going to take a lot longer than the"}, {'start': '4360.770', 'end': '4362.720', 'text': 'next month or two months or three\nmonths.'}, {'start': '4362.720', 'end': '4366.920', 'text': "So I'm guessing that what they're really\ntalking about is some sort of face"}, {'start': '4366.920', 'end': '4371.660', 'text': 'saving agreement that where Trump can\nsay, okay, look, I got Japan to come'}, {'start': '4371.660', 'end': '4375.410', 'text': "around and Japan can say, yeah, we're\ngoing to keep talking, but maybe really"}, {'start': '4375.410', 'end': '4379.550', 'text': "it's all about just agreeing to keep\ntalking about something for the future,"}, {'start': '4379.580', 'end': '4382.730', 'text': 'agreeing to keep talking.\nBrian Fallon, Bloomberg senior editor'}, {'start': '4382.730', 'end': '4386.270', 'text': "here watching the Japan trade\nnegotiations as we're also watching, of"}, {'start': '4386.270', 'end': '4389.320', 'text': "course, what's happening between China\nand the US."}, {'start': '4389.330', 'end': '4393.140', 'text': 'Take a look at the offshore yuan, the\nChinese markets on holiday, but Beijing'}, {'start': '4393.140', 'end': '4397.040', 'text': "now saying that they're currently\nevaluating possible U.S."}, {'start': '4397.130', 'end': '4399.740', 'text': 'trade talks.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '4415.600', 'end': '4417.550', 'text': 'Take a look at how futures are trading\nat the moment.'}, {'start': '4417.550', 'end': '4421.340', 'text': 'We have seen that Wall Street gaining\nfor the eighth consecutive session.'}, {'start': '4421.360', 'end': '4424.690', 'text': "Right now, we're extending those gains\nearly in the Asia session."}, {'start': '4424.930', 'end': '4426.940', 'text': 'U.S.\nstock futures are also trending to the'}, {'start': '4426.940', 'end': '4429.490', 'text': 'upside.\nAnd we have some hints coming from China'}, {'start': '4429.490', 'end': '4433.360', 'text': 'that they may be open to negotiations.\nChina saying that they are currently'}, {'start': '4433.360', 'end': '4436.170', 'text': 'evaluating possible U.S.\ntrade talks.'}, {'start': '4436.180', 'end': '4439.990', 'text': "They're saying that the U.S.\nshould show sincerity if they actually"}, {'start': '4439.990', 'end': '4444.670', 'text': 'want these negotiations, urging\nWashington to correct mistakes on these'}, {'start': '4444.670', 'end': '4448.240', 'text': 'tariffs or conducting an assessment on\nthese U.S.'}, {'start': '4448.240', 'end': '4449.890', 'text': 'talks.\nOf course, we had been reporting that'}, {'start': '4449.890', 'end': '4453.620', 'text': 'President Trump has said that these\nconversations with China were happening.'}, {'start': '4453.640', 'end': '4455.920', 'text': 'China has denied it a couple of times\nalready.'}, {'start': '4456.070', 'end': '4460.720', 'text': "But now we're hearing that China is\ncurrently evaluating the possibility of"}, {'start': '4460.720', 'end': '4464.170', 'text': "those trade negotiations going forward.\nTake a look at how we're setting up"}, {'start': '4464.620', 'end': '4469.030', 'text': "early in the Asia session, given that\nChina is away on holidays, but we're"}, {'start': '4469.030', 'end': '4471.580', 'text': 'watching the Nikkei now gain more than a\npercent.'}, {'start': '4472.270', 'end': '4476.770', 'text': 'We have continued to see gains for the\nJapanese stock market, the longest'}, {'start': '4476.770', 'end': '4479.390', 'text': 'winning streak since January of last\nyear.'}, {'start': '4479.410', 'end': '4483.610', 'text': "We're hearing after the second round of\ntrade negotiations between Tokyo and"}, {'start': '4483.610', 'end': '4488.260', 'text': 'Washington that leaders will be expected\nto announce a final deal as soon as'}, {'start': '4488.260', 'end': '4491.830', 'text': 'possible, according to foreign ministry\nofficial here in Tokyo.'}, {'start': '4491.860', 'end': '4496.600', 'text': "We also heard from Japan's finance\nminister, Kato, that Japan is"}, {'start': '4496.810', 'end': '4499.780', 'text': 'considering U.S.\ntreasuries as a card in ongoing'}, {'start': '4499.780', 'end': '4502.420', 'text': 'negotiations, not necessarily that they\nwill use it.'}, {'start': '4502.660', 'end': '4504.680', 'text': 'We are headed towards Australia\nelections.'}, {'start': '4504.690', 'end': '4506.140', 'text': 'There is a lot of news.\nBear with me.'}, {'start': '4506.350', 'end': '4510.600', 'text': 'Cosby, though, down the quarter percent\nbecause a finance minister just resigns'}, {'start': '4510.610', 'end': '4514.810', 'text': 'hours before becoming the interim leader\nof that country Heidi.'}, {'start': '4516.130', 'end': '4520.440', 'text': 'Happy Friday, Cheri.\nNo shortage of things to talk about, but'}, {'start': '4520.450', 'end': '4522.100', 'text': 'going out with the band at the moment\nwhen'}, {'start': '4524.680', 'end': '4528.310', 'text': 'that market reaction to you just\nmentioned, of course, is headline that'}, {'start': '4528.310', 'end': '4532.230', 'text': 'China is currently evaluating the\npossible trade talks with the US.'}, {'start': '4532.240', 'end': '4535.300', 'text': "We're seeing that market reaction.\nS&P 500 futures of rising the lows,"}, {'start': '4535.300', 'end': '4538.900', 'text': "Australia's ASX gaining, erasing that\nyear to date loss as well."}, {'start': '4538.900', 'end': '4541.700', 'text': 'And of course that reaction in the yen\nas well.'}, {'start': '4541.720', 'end': '4545.290', 'text': "So let's bring our China correspondent\nin below joining us for more from Hong"}, {'start': '4545.290', 'end': '4547.120', 'text': "Kong.\nAnd you know, it's interesting, it was"}, {'start': '4547.120', 'end': '4552.100', 'text': 'only yesterday that we had even China\nvia state media CCTV acknowledged that'}, {'start': '4552.100', 'end': '4555.730', 'text': 'the US had reached out.\nWhat do we know so far in terms of what'}, {'start': '4555.730', 'end': '4560.260', 'text': "they've what Beijing have really said\ntoday and how that could pave the way"}, {'start': '4560.260', 'end': '4565.030', 'text': 'forward for potential engagement?\nYeah.'}, {'start': '4565.030', 'end': '4569.620', 'text': 'So the Chinese forum for the Chinese\nForeign Ministry actually confirmed what'}, {'start': '4569.620', 'end': '4574.180', 'text': 'we saw from Chinese state media, a\nsocial media post yesterday suggesting,'}, {'start': '4574.510', 'end': '4578.020', 'text': 'according to sources, that China that\nthe US has been reaching out to China'}, {'start': '4578.020', 'end': '4581.290', 'text': 'via various channels.\nAnd I think you can see this as China'}, {'start': '4581.470', 'end': '4586.030', 'text': 'trying to see the ground for potential\ntalks to soften sort of the atmosphere'}, {'start': '4586.030', 'end': '4590.200', 'text': 'for it, especially for the domestic\naudience who make it sound like at least'}, {'start': '4590.200', 'end': '4592.480', 'text': 'it is not China being the first to reach\nout here.'}, {'start': '4592.480', 'end': '4595.990', 'text': 'The Chinese social media post yesterday\nsaying that the fact that the US is'}, {'start': '4595.990', 'end': '4599.020', 'text': 'reaching out first shows that the US is\nmore anxious here.'}, {'start': '4599.230', 'end': '4602.980', 'text': 'And the Chinese Foreign Ministry\nconfirming that they are now assessing'}, {'start': '4603.400', 'end': '4607.030', 'text': 'possibilities for talks.\nIt is still calling on the US to remove'}, {'start': '4607.030', 'end': '4612.160', 'text': 'all unilateral tariffs and calling for\nit to be able to correct its mistakes.'}, {'start': '4612.460', 'end': '4617.620', 'text': "And from the Trump side, we've been\nhearing really different sort of"}, {'start': '4617.620', 'end': '4620.920', 'text': "rhetoric day by day.\nHe has said before that he's going to be"}, {'start': '4620.920', 'end': '4626.710', 'text': 'nice to China, but he also said that the\nUS is not going to unilaterally lower'}, {'start': '4626.710', 'end': '4630.280', 'text': 'tariffs as well.\nHe says any deal will be on US terms.'}, {'start': '4631.120', 'end': '4636.160', 'text': "So it's kind of hard to read the tea\nleaves here in terms of what those trade"}, {'start': '4636.160', 'end': '4638.630', 'text': 'talks will be like and the timeline for\nit.'}, {'start': '4638.630', 'end': '4641.980', 'text': 'It does look like something that the\nprocess is speeding up now in terms of'}, {'start': '4641.980', 'end': '4646.420', 'text': "what each party can offer to the other.\nThat's still you know, there are really"}, {'start': '4646.420', 'end': '4653.200', 'text': "infinite possibilities for that.\nAnd in the meantime, we've already seen"}, {'start': '4653.200', 'end': '4656.620', 'text': "the business impact, right?\nI mean, we're getting big tech earnings."}, {'start': '4656.620', 'end': '4661.270', 'text': "We're watching those Apple suppliers and\nthe cost of tariffs already been"}, {'start': '4661.270', 'end': '4666.340', 'text': 'estimated a pretty high.\nYes, Apple saying it would cost the'}, {'start': '4666.340', 'end': '4671.880', 'text': 'company $900 million in the third fiscal\nquarter to bear those tariff costs.'}, {'start': '4671.890', 'end': '4676.660', 'text': 'And for Apple, we saw its sales in China\nmissing estimates in the second fiscal'}, {'start': '4676.660', 'end': '4680.140', 'text': 'quarter ending in March.\nAnd there are a few factors at play'}, {'start': '4680.140', 'end': '4682.390', 'text': 'here.\nNumber one, of course, China has been a'}, {'start': '4682.390', 'end': '4685.990', 'text': "major production hub.\nAnd while it's managed to get exemptions"}, {'start': '4685.990', 'end': '4691.300', 'text': 'for the import of electronics from China\nto the US, the tariff risk undoubtedly'}, {'start': '4691.300', 'end': '4695.710', 'text': 'is still very high, especially given the\nuncertainties around how trade talks'}, {'start': '4695.710', 'end': '4697.960', 'text': 'will go.\nAnd when it comes to the Chinese market,'}, {'start': '4697.960', 'end': '4702.040', 'text': 'there is intense competition there from\nthe local players like Sell Me and'}, {'start': '4702.040', 'end': '4706.000', 'text': 'Huawei, where we have seen pretty\ninnovative designs, the foldable phones,'}, {'start': '4706.180', 'end': '4709.750', 'text': 'while Apple is seen as pretty much a\nlaggard here, especially when it comes'}, {'start': '4709.750', 'end': '4713.390', 'text': 'to the rollout of air services, which is\nstill not available in China.'}, {'start': '4713.410', 'end': '4717.160', 'text': 'So a lot of challenges going forward,\nespecially in the Chinese market.'}, {'start': '4717.340', 'end': '4719.950', 'text': 'And also given the broader trade\nuncertainties as well,'}, {'start': '4722.140', 'end': '4726.130', 'text': 'Amazon, too, provided weaker than\nexpected forecast for next quarter for'}, {'start': '4726.130', 'end': '4729.250', 'text': "operating profit.\nThere's a big element here of China,"}, {'start': '4729.250', 'end': '4734.590', 'text': 'tariffs on Amazon, too.\nYeah, of course, because Amazon is an'}, {'start': '4734.590', 'end': '4738.400', 'text': "e-commerce player already, it's being\naffected by the lifting of the de"}, {'start': '4738.400', 'end': '4743.230', 'text': 'minimis exemption.\nAnd the company recently came under fire'}, {'start': '4743.230', 'end': '4747.790', 'text': 'from the White House for considering to\nput on display those import charges on'}, {'start': '4747.790', 'end': '4750.490', 'text': 'its platform.\nAnd since then the company has said it'}, {'start': '4750.490', 'end': '4753.950', 'text': 'will not be doing so but undoubtedly is\nhaving an impact.'}, {'start': '4753.970', 'end': '4756.640', 'text': 'We saw the first quarter earnings\nactually meeting estimates, but the'}, {'start': '4756.640', 'end': '4758.950', 'text': 'forward guidance actually looking pretty\nweak.'}, {'start': '4758.950', 'end': '4761.890', 'text': "The company gave a wide range.\nThis suggesting there's a lot of"}, {'start': '4761.890', 'end': '4766.450', 'text': 'uncertainty and the companies citing\nthings like tariff and trade issues as'}, {'start': '4766.450', 'end': '4771.400', 'text': 'well as potential recession risks.\nAnd bear in mind that the company sells'}, {'start': '4771.400', 'end': '4776.110', 'text': 'about a quarter of its products are from\nChina, originating from China, and it'}, {'start': '4776.110', 'end': '4780.520', 'text': 'also has this low cost platform called\nHall, which ships products from Chinese'}, {'start': '4780.520', 'end': '4784.570', 'text': 'warehouses.\nAnd if many of these tiny suppliers do'}, {'start': '4784.570', 'end': '4789.700', 'text': "decide to pull back, it's going to have\na major impact on Amazon's logistics as"}, {'start': '4789.700', 'end': '4793.960', 'text': 'well as its ad sales revenue, especially\nthe smaller and medium size sellers'}, {'start': '4794.170', 'end': '4796.330', 'text': 'start to cut back on their spending as\nwell.'}, {'start': '4797.920', 'end': '4801.910', 'text': "We're seeing that impact on sentiment as\nwell with some of these PMI numbers."}, {'start': '4802.120', 'end': '4804.760', 'text': "I'll get to those in just a moment.\nBut Bloomberg's China correspondent in"}, {'start': '4804.760', 'end': '4806.830', 'text': 'low.\nBut take a look at the ratings that we'}, {'start': '4806.830', 'end': '4811.030', 'text': 'see for the S&P global PMI numbers for\nTaiwan, for example, the manufacturing'}, {'start': '4811.030', 'end': '4814.120', 'text': 'PMI falling to the lowest since December\n2023.'}, {'start': '4814.120', 'end': '4818.800', 'text': "For Indonesia, we're seeing that decline\nto the lowest since August 2021."}, {'start': '4819.310', 'end': '4823.870', 'text': 'Some of those declines being seen for\nthe likes of Thailand as well,'}, {'start': '4823.870', 'end': '4829.300', 'text': 'deteriorating Malaysia as well as the\nPhilippines being only one to see an'}, {'start': '4829.300', 'end': '4832.330', 'text': 'improvement there.\nMany of those now in contraction.'}, {'start': '4832.480', 'end': '4836.320', 'text': "And of course, we continue to look to\nthe details of the statement that we've"}, {'start': '4836.320', 'end': '4839.890', 'text': 'had from the Chinese Ministry of\nCommerce and these remarks when it comes'}, {'start': '4839.890', 'end': '4844.510', 'text': 'to US-China trade consultations, some\npretty strong language still of defiance'}, {'start': '4844.510', 'end': '4848.620', 'text': "from Beijing side, saying that China's\nposition has been consistent."}, {'start': '4848.620', 'end': '4851.110', 'text': 'If the US wants to fight, we will fight\nto the end.'}, {'start': '4851.110', 'end': '4854.860', 'text': 'If it wants to talk, the door remains\nopen, but that this is a trade war that'}, {'start': '4854.860', 'end': '4860.920', 'text': 'was unilaterally initiated by the US and\nif the US wants to negotiate, it needs'}, {'start': '4860.920', 'end': '4865.660', 'text': 'to demonstrate, quote, sincerity by\ncorrecting its wrong practices such as'}, {'start': '4865.660', 'end': '4869.370', 'text': 'these unilaterally imposed tariffs and\ntaking concrete actions as well.'}, {'start': '4869.380', 'end': '4872.500', 'text': "So they have made note of the recent\nsignals that we've heard from President"}, {'start': '4872.500', 'end': '4876.490', 'text': 'Trump from the likes of Scott Bessant\nabout possible adjustments to tariff'}, {'start': '4876.490', 'end': '4880.360', 'text': 'measures.\nAnd the Chinese response is that in any'}, {'start': '4880.360', 'end': '4885.070', 'text': "potential dialogue or any possible\ntalks, if the US doesn't correct these"}, {'start': '4885.130', 'end': '4889.750', 'text': 'tariff measures, it would indicate a\ncomplete lack of sincerity and further'}, {'start': '4889.750', 'end': '4893.080', 'text': 'undermine mutual trust.\nSo sure, it is quite interesting that'}, {'start': '4893.080', 'end': '4897.100', 'text': "basically saying you can say one thing\nwhile doing another and that's not going"}, {'start': '4897.100', 'end': '4902.380', 'text': "to work with China.\nYeah, I mean, we're in the thick of"}, {'start': '4902.380', 'end': '4906.880', 'text': 'these trade negotiations, right?\nI mean, China is just starting to look'}, {'start': '4906.880', 'end': '4909.220', 'text': 'at the possibility of starting\nnegotiations.'}, {'start': '4909.220', 'end': '4914.410', 'text': 'But we have Japan, South Korea ongoing.\nWe have word from the second round of'}, {'start': '4914.410', 'end': '4919.150', 'text': 'trade negotiations between Tokyo and\nWashington and a ministry official from'}, {'start': '4919.150', 'end': '4922.600', 'text': 'the Foreign affairs Ministry coming out\nand saying that the leaders of these two'}, {'start': '4922.600', 'end': '4925.570', 'text': 'countries will be expected to announce a\nfinal deal.'}, {'start': '4925.570', 'end': '4927.640', 'text': "They're hoping to make it as soon as\npossible."}, {'start': '4928.150', 'end': '4933.880', 'text': 'The chief trade negotiator, Jose Angus,\nhow I spoke to his counterparts for more'}, {'start': '4933.880', 'end': '4939.460', 'text': 'than 2 hours saying that the currency\nand national security issues were not'}, {'start': '4939.460', 'end': '4944.380', 'text': 'raised as topics and they did not\ndiscuss China specifically in bilateral'}, {'start': '4944.380', 'end': '4947.170', 'text': 'talks either.\nYou can see right there that the Nikkei'}, {'start': '4947.170', 'end': '4950.110', 'text': 'is gaining now for an eighth, seventh\nconsecutive session.'}, {'start': '4950.430', 'end': '4954.450', 'text': 'The longest winning streak since 2023.\nThis is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '4973.980', 'end': '4975.300', 'text': 'Take a look at U.S.\nTreasuries.'}, {'start': '4975.300', 'end': '4978.210', 'text': "It's been an interesting ride so far\nthis session."}, {'start': '4978.210', 'end': '4983.010', 'text': "Of course, we started out\nwith Japan's finance minister, Kato,"}, {'start': '4983.010', 'end': '4985.560', 'text': 'saying that U.S.\nTreasury Holdings could be used as a'}, {'start': '4985.560', 'end': '4988.230', 'text': 'negotiation card.\nAs we hear of more progress when it'}, {'start': '4988.230', 'end': '4991.950', 'text': 'comes to these talks being held between\nWashington and Japan.'}, {'start': '4991.950', 'end': '4995.580', 'text': "But at the same time, we're now seeing\nthat move potentially reflecting the"}, {'start': '4995.580', 'end': '5000.170', 'text': 'market hopes that with the statement out\nfrom China about potentially evaluating'}, {'start': '5000.350', 'end': '5005.360', 'text': 'US-China trade talks, that it kind of\nadds to a bettering of the global mood'}, {'start': '5005.360', 'end': '5007.240', 'text': 'music when it comes to trade.\nRight.'}, {'start': '5007.260', 'end': '5009.890', 'text': 'We also heard from the Treasury\nsecretary, Scott Bessant, overnight'}, {'start': '5010.160', 'end': '5012.830', 'text': 'saying that the Treasury market is\nsignaling that the Fed should lower'}, {'start': '5012.830', 'end': '5015.740', 'text': 'interest rates, signaling that the Fed\nshould cut.'}, {'start': '5015.750', 'end': '5020.090', 'text': 'He argued that the ten year yields have\nretreated since Trump took office and'}, {'start': '5020.090', 'end': '5023.030', 'text': 'that the drop in ten year rates is,\nquote, saving the federal government'}, {'start': '5023.030', 'end': '5027.080', 'text': "lots of money in terms of interest.\nSo there's clearly a lot going on today"}, {'start': '5027.080', 'end': '5030.830', 'text': 'as we head into the weekend, which of\ncourse, also holds two elections in'}, {'start': '5030.830', 'end': '5033.860', 'text': 'Australia and Singapore.\nFor more on all of this, Garfield'}, {'start': '5033.860', 'end': '5036.530', 'text': 'Reynolds who leads our Markets Love Asia\ncoverage, joins us now.'}, {'start': '5037.070', 'end': '5041.170', 'text': 'GOFF Let me get you started, of course,\nwith the latest statement from China.'}, {'start': '5041.180', 'end': '5045.830', 'text': "What's really been interesting is if you\nread into the statement, it's still"}, {'start': '5045.830', 'end': '5049.400', 'text': 'pretty defiant, saying, you know, we\nwill only talk if you admit your'}, {'start': '5049.400', 'end': '5052.160', 'text': 'mistakes and undo these tariffs.\nYeah.'}, {'start': '5052.190', 'end': '5056.060', 'text': 'Oh, very much so.\nBut I mean, I think what what what'}, {'start': '5056.060', 'end': '5062.750', 'text': 'investors are picking up on is the that\nthey got scared out of this expectation'}, {'start': '5064.010', 'end': '5069.650', 'text': 'in the initial bewilderment created by\nthe Liberation Day announcement on the'}, {'start': '5069.650', 'end': '5073.640', 'text': 'reciprocal tariffs was working out\ntrying to work out how do they come up'}, {'start': '5073.640', 'end': '5075.980', 'text': 'with these?\nHow does anybody negotiate on this'}, {'start': '5075.980', 'end': '5078.680', 'text': 'basis?\nSo that scared everybody.'}, {'start': '5079.820', 'end': '5083.120', 'text': 'And in particular, investors had to drop\nfor a while at least.'}, {'start': '5083.120', 'end': '5088.640', 'text': 'The overall expectation when it came to\ntariffs, which was that President Trump'}, {'start': '5088.850', 'end': '5092.600', 'text': 'would push for tariffs, would talk a big\ngame on tariffs.'}, {'start': '5092.600', 'end': '5099.800', 'text': 'But ultimately the hit to economies\nglobally would be manageable and that it'}, {'start': '5099.800', 'end': '5102.950', 'text': 'would not\nas far as U.S.'}, {'start': '5102.980', 'end': '5107.090', 'text': 'equities in particular, but also\npotentially as far as the economies in'}, {'start': '5107.090', 'end': '5111.620', 'text': "general, it wouldn't be so bad that it\nwould over."}, {'start': '5111.860', 'end': '5117.050', 'text': 'Well, the expected boost to U.S.\nactivity from the tax cuts and'}, {'start': '5117.050', 'end': '5120.740', 'text': 'deregulation, which were also a major\npart of his platform.'}, {'start': '5121.040', 'end': '5128.180', 'text': 'So what we have now is investors looking\nfor anything that can feed the theme'}, {'start': '5128.390', 'end': '5132.290', 'text': 'that the tariffs will not be as bad as\nhave been feared.'}, {'start': '5132.290', 'end': '5139.130', 'text': 'And in particular, every softening in\nthe US posture and apparent softening or'}, {'start': '5139.130', 'end': '5144.950', 'text': 'at least moves towards talks from other\nparties, increases the chances that'}, {'start': '5146.360', 'end': '5149.970', 'text': 'the reciprocal tariffs that have been\ndelayed will go on being delayed.'}, {'start': '5150.020', 'end': '5155.240', 'text': "So that's when you look at places like\nJapan, Europe, Korea, and that there"}, {'start': '5155.240', 'end': '5160.040', 'text': "might even be some delays in what's been\nimposed on China."}, {'start': '5160.570', 'end': '5165.830', 'text': 'You know, that would be the next step\nand it would be very much your from the'}, {'start': '5165.830', 'end': '5170.150', 'text': "president's playbook so far, which has\nbeen to delay or offer exemptions"}, {'start': '5170.450', 'end': '5175.760', 'text': 'temporarily for tariffs when that that\nseems to be in his interest.'}, {'start': '5175.760', 'end': '5180.350', 'text': 'You think of the Apple exemptions, you\nthink of what they came up with with the'}, {'start': '5180.350', 'end': '5182.840', 'text': "order.\nSo that's what investors are looking"}, {'start': '5182.930', 'end': '5186.440', 'text': "for.\nThey're not just they're not looking for"}, {'start': '5186.440', 'end': '5190.370', 'text': 'the idea that suddenly tariffs will\ndisappear, but they are looking for the'}, {'start': '5190.370', 'end': '5196.130', 'text': "idea that the 10% base doesn't get added\nto when you look at reciprocal tariffs"}, {'start': '5196.130', 'end': '5201.830', 'text': 'and that there could be\nadjustments to the sectoral tariffs that'}, {'start': '5201.830', 'end': '5207.350', 'text': 'have been imposed.\nAt the same time, Bill, I mean, the'}, {'start': '5207.350', 'end': '5212.660', 'text': 'whole narrative that we saw unfold from\nlast month, the sell America trade now'}, {'start': '5212.660', 'end': '5217.100', 'text': 'with Japan saying that US Treasury\nholdings are in the cards a little, not'}, {'start': '5217.100', 'end': '5220.520', 'text': "necessarily that they would use it, but\nyes, when you're negotiating with"}, {'start': '5220.520', 'end': '5225.080', 'text': 'another country on what sort of tariffs\nand what sort of outcome you want to see'}, {'start': '5225.080', 'end': '5229.250', 'text': 'here does not really wane the appeal of\nU.S.'}, {'start': '5229.280', 'end': '5233.060', 'text': 'assets long term.\nThis uncertainty and back and forth that'}, {'start': '5233.060', 'end': '5234.680', 'text': "we're seeing from the Trump\nadministration."}, {'start': '5236.610', 'end': '5239.970', 'text': 'Oh, absolutely.\nYou know, if you look at where the US'}, {'start': '5239.970', 'end': '5246.060', 'text': 'dollar in particular is now relative to\nwhere it was, you know, back before the'}, {'start': '5246.060', 'end': '5250.980', 'text': 'inauguration and in particular the know\nthe expectation had been that tariffs'}, {'start': '5250.980', 'end': '5255.300', 'text': 'would add to US dollar strength.\nAnd in fact, that was to some extent'}, {'start': '5255.300', 'end': '5260.310', 'text': 'sold by Treasury Secretary and in\nparticular and some others as part of'}, {'start': '5260.310', 'end': '5266.040', 'text': 'the reason why the impact on the US of\ntariffs would not be so extreme because'}, {'start': '5266.040', 'end': '5269.490', 'text': 'other countries, other countries would\ndevalue their currencies or allow them'}, {'start': '5269.490', 'end': '5272.430', 'text': 'to devalue.\nAnd that would therefore mean that the'}, {'start': '5272.430', 'end': '5277.800', 'text': "hit to actual US consumers and US\nbusinesses wouldn't be so severe because"}, {'start': '5278.430', 'end': '5283.740', 'text': 'the tariff is effectively being paid by\nthose other countries through them'}, {'start': '5283.740', 'end': '5287.430', 'text': "devaluing their currencies.\nThat hasn't been happening."}, {'start': '5288.090', 'end': '5293.580', 'text': 'That might be part of why the US US\nofficials have sounded very, very keen'}, {'start': '5293.580', 'end': '5299.280', 'text': 'on the idea that deals will come.\nAnd in fact China has has put forward'}, {'start': '5299.280', 'end': '5306.000', 'text': 'the idea that the US is is sounding are\nvery keen to reach a deal, sort of'}, {'start': '5306.000', 'end': '5311.760', 'text': 'emphasizing that maybe China is not so\nkeen precisely unless they get a decent'}, {'start': '5311.760', 'end': '5318.090', 'text': 'deal so that that US dollar situation is\na concern and there is still an'}, {'start': '5318.090', 'end': '5324.090', 'text': 'underlying concern, especially if the US\ndata sours going forward.'}, {'start': '5324.090', 'end': '5327.300', 'text': 'If we get the real data coming in\nshowing that there has been damage, you'}, {'start': '5327.300', 'end': '5331.830', 'text': 'could see a return to that sell America\ntrade across broad assets.'}, {'start': '5332.430', 'end': '5338.460', 'text': "But for now, there's plenty of optimism\nthat the situation will end up being"}, {'start': '5339.090', 'end': '5343.080', 'text': 'less existential than had been feared.\nMight not.'}, {'start': '5343.950', 'end': '5346.170', 'text': "Mm hmm.\nBloomberg's cross-field panels there"}, {'start': '5346.170', 'end': '5349.410', 'text': 'with the latest on the market moves.\nWith us now is Christopher LaFleur,'}, {'start': '5349.410', 'end': '5354.870', 'text': 'chairman of AmCham Japan, for his views\non how these businesses are reacting to'}, {'start': '5354.870', 'end': '5357.930', 'text': 'the trade environment right now.\nChristopher, good to have you with us.'}, {'start': '5357.930', 'end': '5361.140', 'text': "I mean, we're talking with Garfield\nabout this uncertainty coming from the"}, {'start': '5361.140', 'end': '5362.250', 'text': 'U.S.\nadministration.'}, {'start': '5362.250', 'end': '5366.960', 'text': 'What does that mean for businesses\ntrying to really continue business as'}, {'start': '5366.960', 'end': '5372.330', 'text': "usual here in Japan?\nWell, as I'm sure you and your audience"}, {'start': '5372.330', 'end': '5376.920', 'text': 'know well, Japan is a tremendous market\nfor American companies.'}, {'start': '5377.580', 'end': '5382.680', 'text': 'And in fact, the U.S.\nenjoys a trade surplus in services with'}, {'start': '5382.680', 'end': '5385.590', 'text': "Japan.\nThat's substantial, but certainly"}, {'start': '5386.220', 'end': '5392.700', 'text': 'insufficient to make up for the large\ntrade deficit in in merchandise goods.'}, {'start': '5393.630', 'end': '5400.260', 'text': "So we've been following the negotiations\nvery carefully with a view to hoping"}, {'start': '5400.260', 'end': '5406.590', 'text': 'that the two governments can reach\nagreement quickly and that trade can'}, {'start': '5406.590', 'end': '5409.500', 'text': 'continue to expand between the two\ncountries as it has been.'}, {'start': '5412.250', 'end': '5415.550', 'text': "I think that's a hope from businesses\naround the world."}, {'start': '5415.550', 'end': '5419.480', 'text': "But the fact remains that we haven't\nseen really a lot of details on what"}, {'start': '5419.480', 'end': '5423.590', 'text': "these negotiations have entailed.\nI mean, we've seen reporting about more"}, {'start': '5423.590', 'end': '5427.880', 'text': 'soybean imports from the US, corn\nimports, safety standards being relaxed'}, {'start': '5427.880', 'end': '5431.060', 'text': 'here in Japan, perhaps, but nothing\nconcrete.'}, {'start': '5431.090', 'end': '5433.730', 'text': 'Are you hearing anything different in\nthe US?'}, {'start': '5435.050', 'end': '5442.460', 'text': "No, I think, you know, it's it's obvious\nthat Japan is a major market already for"}, {'start': '5442.460', 'end': '5446.540', 'text': 'American agricultural products, one of\nthe very largest in the world.'}, {'start': '5447.170', 'end': '5453.590', 'text': "And so it's clear that they could and\nprobably should be opportunities,"}, {'start': '5453.890', 'end': '5457.520', 'text': 'further opportunities for American\nagricultural exports to Japan.'}, {'start': '5458.270', 'end': '5461.660', 'text': 'But of course, there are a number of\nother opportunities as well.'}, {'start': '5461.750', 'end': '5467.990', 'text': "We've heard, as I'm sure you have, the\nopportunities, the potential for greater"}, {'start': '5467.990', 'end': '5474.050', 'text': 'energy exports from the United States.\nWe know that pharmaceuticals make up'}, {'start': '5474.050', 'end': '5479.540', 'text': 'about 10% of of U.S.\nexports to Japan, merchandise exports.'}, {'start': '5480.170', 'end': '5483.110', 'text': "And there's certainly room for for\nfurther growth there."}, {'start': '5483.350', 'end': '5489.680', 'text': 'If Japan could adopt the policies that\nwill encourage that kind of investment'}, {'start': '5489.860', 'end': '5494.300', 'text': 'by American companies in the market.\nSo there are there are plenty of'}, {'start': '5494.300', 'end': '5498.350', 'text': 'opportunities here.\nYou touched on autos a second ago, I'}, {'start': '5498.350', 'end': '5504.200', 'text': 'think with respect to safety standards,\ncertainly trying to harmonize standards'}, {'start': '5504.200', 'end': '5509.300', 'text': 'between the two countries would also\ncreate greater opportunities, and'}, {'start': '5509.300', 'end': '5515.000', 'text': 'particularly looking toward the future,\nensuring that as automotive technology'}, {'start': '5515.000', 'end': '5519.230', 'text': 'advances, that the standards in the two\ncountries are compatible.'}, {'start': '5519.470', 'end': '5522.830', 'text': 'I think would would be very helpful to\nus going forward.'}, {'start': '5525.170', 'end': '5528.950', 'text': 'Christopher, Aside from the sort of hour\nto hour, day to day potential progress'}, {'start': '5528.950', 'end': '5534.710', 'text': 'being made, the concern with this sort\nof tariff war is that confidence becomes'}, {'start': '5534.950', 'end': '5537.410', 'text': 'or lack of confidence becomes\nentrenched, right.'}, {'start': '5537.440', 'end': '5541.520', 'text': "Are you hearing much from the membership\nin terms of whether they're waiting and"}, {'start': '5541.520', 'end': '5544.700', 'text': "seeing or whether they're having to make\nsome of these harder, you know,"}, {'start': '5544.730', 'end': '5548.750', 'text': 'strategic changes and investment and\nspending decisions that may be quite'}, {'start': '5548.750', 'end': '5553.640', 'text': 'hard to reverse regardless of what\nprogresses next in these negotiations?'}, {'start': '5554.420', 'end': '5558.620', 'text': 'Well, our membership, of course, is are\nAmerican companies operating in Japan'}, {'start': '5559.280', 'end': '5563.000', 'text': 'and Japan.\nWe fully expect is going to continue to'}, {'start': '5563.000', 'end': '5567.620', 'text': "be such an important market for the\nUnited States that I don't think it's"}, {'start': '5567.620', 'end': '5572.300', 'text': 'had a significant impact to date on\ninvestment decisions.'}, {'start': '5572.990', 'end': '5579.080', 'text': 'And indeed, I think a number of American\ncompanies see increasing potential in'}, {'start': '5579.080', 'end': '5584.780', 'text': "Japan, whether it's in pharmaceuticals,\nas I mentioned, or pharmaceuticals or"}, {'start': '5584.780', 'end': '5587.510', 'text': "aerospace.\nSo there is there's lots of"}, {'start': '5587.510', 'end': '5592.640', 'text': 'opportunities in Japan.\nThe big economy that that U.S.'}, {'start': '5592.640', 'end': '5599.450', 'text': 'business, certainly particularly in this\nday and age when not when the situation'}, {'start': '5599.450', 'end': '5605.840', 'text': 'in Asia is shifting, as Japan has got to\nbe a central focus for foreign'}, {'start': '5605.840', 'end': '5608.510', 'text': 'investment, for the United States, for\nUnited States companies.'}, {'start': '5610.910', 'end': '5614.990', 'text': "I've, of course, held various senior\ndiplomatic roles throughout your career"}, {'start': '5614.990', 'end': '5620.420', 'text': 'pertaining between the US and Japan.\nDo you feel that this tension at the'}, {'start': '5620.420', 'end': '5623.990', 'text': 'moment is sort of a blip in the ongoing\nlandscape between two very strong'}, {'start': '5623.990', 'end': '5628.670', 'text': 'traditional allies, or do you think\nthere will be sort of ongoing takeaways'}, {'start': '5628.670', 'end': '5633.530', 'text': 'even if the government in the next few\nyears does change on the US side or on'}, {'start': '5633.530', 'end': '5637.910', 'text': 'the Japanese side?\nWell, let me say that the'}, {'start': '5639.050', 'end': '5643.910', 'text': 'the U.S.\nChamber has just recently had a small'}, {'start': '5643.910', 'end': '5647.960', 'text': 'group visiting Washington, D.C.\nto talk with US government officials.'}, {'start': '5648.620', 'end': '5653.840', 'text': 'And preceding that\nvisit, we also had an opportunity to'}, {'start': '5654.350', 'end': '5658.370', 'text': 'dialogue with a number of Japanese\nbusiness organizations and Japanese'}, {'start': '5658.370', 'end': '5662.240', 'text': 'government officials.\nAnd our impression, I think, was that'}, {'start': '5662.420', 'end': '5668.990', 'text': 'both sides are entering this dialogue\nwith a fairly high degree of confidence'}, {'start': '5669.620', 'end': '5674.330', 'text': 'that a good outcome can be achieved.\nThe U.S.'}, {'start': '5674.330', 'end': '5683.160', 'text': 'Japan alliance is certainly at its\nstrongest point historically and in the'}, {'start': '5683.210', 'end': '5688.280', 'text': "as I just pointed out, from an economic\npoint of view, it's an absolutely vital"}, {'start': '5688.280', 'end': '5692.540', 'text': 'relationship for both sides.\nSo I think my impression is both sides'}, {'start': '5692.540', 'end': '5698.450', 'text': 'are entering this to make a deal, and we\nhave high hopes that one will emerge'}, {'start': '5698.450', 'end': '5700.320', 'text': "soon.\nThat's"}, {'start': '5701.540', 'end': '5703.810', 'text': 'Christopher LaFleur, chairman at MGM\nJapan.'}, {'start': '5703.820', 'end': '5706.970', 'text': 'Always great to chat with you.\nAnd more ahead on the Asia trade.'}, {'start': '5707.000', 'end': '5708.320', 'text': 'This is Bloomberg.'}, {'start': '5728.200', 'end': '5733.720', 'text': 'Take a look at how futures are setting\nup as we head towards trading in Taiwan.'}, {'start': '5733.960', 'end': '5736.960', 'text': "We know that China's okay on holidays,\nbut we'll be watching, of course, the"}, {'start': '5736.960', 'end': '5741.340', 'text': "latest lines coming from Beijing that\nthey're assessing the trade talks"}, {'start': '5741.340', 'end': '5745.870', 'text': "possibility with the U.S.\nThey're evaluating those possible"}, {'start': '5745.870', 'end': '5749.620', 'text': 'negotiations.\nBut they do want the U.S.'}, {'start': '5749.620', 'end': '5753.670', 'text': 'to show sincerity if they want those\ntrade negotiations Heidi.'}, {'start': '5753.670', 'end': '5755.410', 'text': 'U.S.\nfutures gaining at the moment.'}, {'start': '5756.970', 'end': '5758.620', 'text': 'Yeah.\nTake a look at our tracking across the'}, {'start': '5758.620', 'end': '5763.030', 'text': 'rest of the region with so much news\nflow and the latest of which is'}, {'start': '5763.030', 'end': '5767.440', 'text': 'obviously sort of that cautious optimism\nthat the door is sort of opening for'}, {'start': '5767.440', 'end': '5771.250', 'text': 'trade talks between the U.S.\nand China, the most contentious and the'}, {'start': '5771.250', 'end': '5774.010', 'text': 'most conflicted potentially out of this\ntrade war.'}, {'start': '5774.010', 'end': '5776.320', 'text': "You're seeing and seeing a little bit of\na breather there."}, {'start': '5776.590', 'end': '5780.100', 'text': 'China looking like this, will be\nwatching the fixing today, but generally'}, {'start': '5780.100', 'end': '5782.680', 'text': 'looking a little bit more at risk on\nacross the region.'}, {'start': '5782.710', 'end': '5784.180', 'text': 'This is Bloomberg.'}]