Ekonomi Amerika Ambruk di 2025: Tarif Trump Bikin Harga Meroket dan Dompet Menjerit
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[{'start': '1.710', 'end': '6.110', 'text': '[Music]'}, {'start': '10.080', 'end': '15.679', 'text': 'At the beginning of 2025, the economic situation\nin the United States suddenly became a'}, {'start': '15.679', 'end': '21.320', 'text': 'hot topic which made people from\nbusiness people to ordinary citizens start to'}, {'start': '21.320', 'end': '28.199', 'text': 'get nervous. The shadow of the economic contraction\nwhich was last felt in 2022'}, {'start': '28.199', 'end': '34.480', 'text': 'is now returning to haunt the\ngross domestic product. RIL GDP in the United States was recorded'}, {'start': '34.480', 'end': '38.760', 'text': 'to have fallen\n0.3% on an annual basis in the first quarter'}, {'start': '38.760', 'end': '44.680', 'text': 'based on a government report\nreleased by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 30'}, {'start': '44.680', 'end': '51.840', 'text': '2025. This figure is very far from\nthe average growth of 3% which over the'}, {'start': '51.840', 'end': '57.079', 'text': 'last 2 years has made the United States\nlook strong. In fact, what caused'}, {'start': '57.079', 'end': '62.120', 'text': 'the economy of the Unclean Sam country to suddenly\nfalter turned out to be that there were two main culprits'}, {'start': '62.120', 'end': '67.680', 'text': 'behind the crazy surge in imports\nahead of the implementation of new tariffs and'}, {'start': '67.680', 'end': '73.880', 'text': 'consumer spending which was starting to sluggish.\nMany analysts said this was the'}, {'start': '73.880', 'end': '79.799', 'text': 'domino effect of\nDonald Trump-style trade policy which was starting to feel its impact.'}, {'start': '79.799', 'end': '84.720', 'text': 'The story is that companies in\nthe United States were playing'}, {'start': '84.720', 'end': '90.079', 'text': 'panic buying in global supermarkets,\nthey rushed to stock up on imported goods'}, {'start': '90.079', 'end': '95.799', 'text': 'before the new tariffs caused prices\nto soar, as a result of which imports soared sharply'}, {'start': '95.799', 'end': '101.040', 'text': 'and this made the trade deficit\nswell. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report'}, {'start': '101.040', 'end': '105.840', 'text': 'said that net exports actually contributed to\na reduction of almost 5 percentage points to'}, {'start': '105.840', 'end': '112.119', 'text': 'GDP, the worst record ever,\nimagine this is like a star basketball team'}, {'start': '112.119', 'end': '116.360', 'text': 'suddenly conceding badly in the\nfirst quarter.'}, {'start': '116.360', 'end': '120.960', 'text': 'Companies are indeed\ntrying to save themselves, but'}, {'start': '120.960', 'end': '126.439', 'text': "this step actually makes\nthe United States' trade balance strain. On the other hand,"}, {'start': '126.439', 'end': '131.080', 'text': 'consumer spending, which is usually\nthe savior of the United States economy'}, {'start': '131.080', 'end': '135.239', 'text': 'because it contributes 2/3 of GDP, this time only\ngrew'}, {'start': '135.239', 'end': '142.640', 'text': '1.8%. This is the slowest pace since\nmid-2023. People are starting to save,'}, {'start': '142.640', 'end': '147.200', 'text': 'their wallets are already running low, especially\nwith the prices of goods starting to rise'}, {'start': '147.200', 'end': '152.480', 'text': 'due to tariff uncertainty, imagine\nif usual Americans enjoy'}, {'start': '152.480', 'end': '156.680', 'text': 'shopping at the mall or online, now\nthey think twice before checking out'}, {'start': '156.680', 'end': '162.159', 'text': 'their shopping baskets, knowing that inflation is\nstill lurking, plus the fear that'}, {'start': '162.159', 'end': '166.879', 'text': 'the price of goods will become more expensive\n, many people are putting the brakes on spending,'}, {'start': '166.879', 'end': '172.840', 'text': "but it's not all bad news, there is\na little ray of hope from the business sector."}, {'start': '172.840', 'end': '177.599', 'text': 'Spending on equipment such as\nplanes and computers has apparently increased'}, {'start': '177.599', 'end': '184.200', 'text': 'at the fastest rate since 2020. This\nmeans that even though the economy is shaky,'}, {'start': '184.200', 'end': '188.840', 'text': 'some companies are still willing to make\nbig investments, maybe they see'}, {'start': '188.840', 'end': '193.560', 'text': 'opportunities in the midst of chaos or just\nwant to upgrade their technology before'}, {'start': '193.560', 'end': '199.239', 'text': 'everything becomes more expensive, whatever it is, this\nis a kind of covering for wounds in the middle.'}, {'start': '199.239', 'end': '204.440', 'text': 'Economic reports that make foreheads\nfurrow. The tariff policy advocated by'}, {'start': '204.440', 'end': '209.400', 'text': 'Trump has indeed become the center of attention\nafter he returned to the political stage'}, {'start': '209.400', 'end': '215.840', 'text': 'with promises of protectionism. The\nbusiness world can already smell the changes in'}, {'start': '215.840', 'end': '220.400', 'text': 'the proposed high tariffs, especially\nfor goods from China and other countries,'}, {'start': '220.400', 'end': '226.560', 'text': 'causing companies to rush to import\ngoods before the policy is officially'}, {'start': '226.560', 'end': '231.720', 'text': "implemented. The aim is simply to stock\nas many goods as possible so that they don't face"}, {'start': '231.720', 'end': '236.920', 'text': 'expensive tariffs later, but this is like\na short-term strategy which actually makes'}, {'start': '236.920', 'end': '242.000', 'text': 'the long-term economy crippled.\nMany economists have started to predict that'}, {'start': '242.000', 'end': '246.799', 'text': 'these higher tariffs will make the\nfirst market t-shirts supply of goods possible.'}, {'start': '246.799', 'end': '251.760', 'text': 'disturbed because the\nsoaring import costs will make the price of goods rise,'}, {'start': '251.760', 'end': '258.120', 'text': 'both the business world will have difficulties because\nthe already complicated global supply chain'}, {'start': '258.120', 'end': '264.040', 'text': 'will become even more messy, thirdly, consumers\nwhose wallets are already on edge'}, {'start': '264.040', 'end': '269.039', 'text': 'will find it increasingly difficult to shop because\nprices are soaring, like a'}, {'start': '269.039', 'end': '275.039', 'text': 'domino effect, one stone falls, everything\ncollapses, interesting facts according to a report'}, {'start': '275.039', 'end': '280.919', 'text': 'from The Wall Street Journal, May 1 2025\nseveral sectors such as electronics and'}, {'start': '280.919', 'end': '286.199', 'text': 'automotive are already starting to feel pressure,\nfor example the price of used cars in the United'}, {'start': '286.199', 'end': '293.120', 'text': 'States rose 7% during the\nfirst quarter of 2025 due to concerns about'}, {'start': '293.120', 'end': '301.560', 'text': 'imported components which would be subject to tariffs on\nthe other hand Bloomberg April 30 2025 Mama'}, {'start': '301.560', 'end': '307.280', 'text': 'wrote that large technology companies\nsuch as Apple and Dell are rushing to'}, {'start': '307.280', 'end': '312.360', 'text': 'diversify their supply chains to\ncountries such as Vietnam and India'}, {'start': '312.360', 'end': '318.479', 'text': 'to avoid tariffs but this is not\neasy. Moving the supply chain takes'}, {'start': '318.479', 'end': '324.639', 'text': 'time, money and coordination which is no\njoke talking about consumers.'}, {'start': '324.639', 'end': '328.319', 'text': 'The story is very sad.\nPeople in the United States,'}, {'start': '328.319', 'end': '332.919', 'text': 'usually known as\nglobal shopaholics, are now starting to think about'}, {'start': '332.919', 'end': '338.280', 'text': 'opening their wallets. Data from the Bureau of\nEconomic Analysis says spending on'}, {'start': '338.280', 'end': '344.800', 'text': 'long-lasting goods such as cars and\nhousehold equipment fell 2.5% in'}, {'start': '344.800', 'end': '349.840', 'text': 'the first quarter. This is a signal that\npeople are not only putting a brake on shopping'}, {'start': '349.840', 'end': '355.960', 'text': 'but are also starting to worry about the future.\nFirst, inflation is still'}, {'start': '355.960', 'end': '361.560', 'text': 'stubborn even though it has fallen from its peak\nin 2022. Prices of goods and services are still'}, {'start': '361.560', 'end': '366.240', 'text': 'higher than people\nexpected. Secondly, high interest rates'}, {'start': '366.240', 'end': '372.800', 'text': 'make loans such as car loans\nor mortgages even more expensive. thirdly,'}, {'start': '372.800', 'end': '378.400', 'text': 'uncertainty about tariffs makes people\nafraid that prices of goods will rise again, so'}, {'start': '378.400', 'end': '385.160', 'text': 'many choose to save now, spend later,\naccording to a survey from Morning Consult, 28'}, {'start': '385.160', 'end': '392.759', 'text': 'April 2025. 62% of Americans\nsaid they were worried about the increase'}, {'start': '392.759', 'end': '398.120', 'text': 'in prices of everyday goods such as groceries\nand gasoline in the next 6 months.'}, {'start': '398.120', 'end': '403.440', 'text': 'This is the highest figure since the start of\nthe pandemic. Many also said'}, {'start': '403.440', 'end': '407.880', 'text': 'they had started switching to\ncheaper brands or even cut their budget'}, {'start': '407.880', 'end': '412.400', 'text': 'for eating out. Imagine that\nrestaurants in big cities'}, {'start': '412.400', 'end': '417.919', 'text': 'such as New York and Los Angeles reported\nthat visitors had fallen by 15% compared to'}, {'start': '417.919', 'end': '424.479', 'text': 'last year, this has made the service sector, which\nis usually strong, start to falter in the midst of'}, {'start': '424.479', 'end': '429.280', 'text': 'this storm, the business sector investing\nin equipment makes people'}, {'start': '429.280', 'end': '434.599', 'text': "wonder if they know something\nwe don't know, the surge in purchases of"}, {'start': '434.599', 'end': '440.039', 'text': 'planes and computers is like an oasis in\nthe middle of the desert.'}, {'start': '440.039', 'end': '444.520', 'text': 'Companies, especially in the\ntechnology and transportation sectors, seem to'}, {'start': '444.520', 'end': '448.599', 'text': 'be playing all in to upgrade\ntheir infrastructure.'}, {'start': '448.599', 'end': '453.000', 'text': 'Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis\nsays business spending on'}, {'start': '453.000', 'end': '459.199', 'text': 'equipment rose 12% on an annual basis, a figure\nthat raises eyebrows. This is the'}, {'start': '459.199', 'end': '464.520', 'text': 'fastest rate since 2020. The pandemic\nmade everyone rush to buy'}, {'start': '464.520', 'end': '470.599', 'text': 'laptops and servers to work from home,\nbut why are they PD once in'}, {'start': '470.599', 'end': '476.960', 'text': 'the midst of a faltering economy, one\nof the reasons, according to a Reuters report on'}, {'start': '476.960', 'end': '484.759', 'text': 'May 2 2025, was anticipation of\nthe probis policies promised by Trump.'}, {'start': '484.759', 'end': '490.440', 'text': 'Apart from tariffs, he also talked about\nderegulation and tax cuts for'}, {'start': '490.440', 'end': '495.879', 'text': 'companies, so some big bosses\nseemed to think "While it\'s still cheap,'}, {'start': '495.879', 'end': '500.159', 'text': 'we\'ll buy equipment now, we\n\'ll make a profit if taxes are cut."'}, {'start': '500.159', 'end': '506.440', 'text': 'For example, Boeing reported that orders for\ncommercial aircraft rose 20% in the'}, {'start': '506.440', 'end': '511.599', 'text': 'first quarter, mostly from\nUS airlines who wanted to secure'}, {'start': '511.599', 'end': '517.479', 'text': 'fleets before the cost of imported components\nsoared. On the technology side, companies'}, {'start': '517.479', 'end': '522.320', 'text': 'such as Intel and AMD are also\ninvesting crazy in'}, {'start': '522.320', 'end': '528.480', 'text': 'manufacturing equipment for chips, perhaps because they are afraid that\nthe global supply chain will become even more chaotic'}, {'start': '528.480', 'end': '534.279', 'text': ', but this is only one side of the story. Not\nall businesses are as optimistic as that. The retail'}, {'start': '534.279', 'end': '540.360', 'text': 'and small manufacturing sectors, for example, are still\nworried. The National Manufacturing Association'}, {'start': '540.360', 'end': '545.360', 'text': '6 said in their latest report\nApril 29 2025 that'}, {'start': '545.360', 'end': '552.560', 'text': '70% of small companies\nare worried about rising raw material costs'}, {'start': '552.560', 'end': '557.720', 'text': "due to tariffs, they don't have the funds\nas big as technology giants to"}, {'start': '557.720', 'end': '563.079', 'text': 'stockpile or diversify supply, so\nwhile the big ones can still'}, {'start': '563.079', 'end': '568.279', 'text': 'sing, the small ones have started gasping\nfor air. Talking about tariffs is'}, {'start': '568.279', 'end': '573.040', 'text': 'really like a time bomb. Trump,\nin his typical style, is not'}, {'start': '573.040', 'end': '578.240', 'text': 'slowly insisting on high tariffs\nfor imported goods, especially from China,'}, {'start': '578.240', 'end': '584.240', 'text': 'Mexico and Canada. He says this\nis to protect United States workers'}, {'start': '584.240', 'end': '590.399', 'text': 'and bring jobs home, but on\nthe ground, the story is different. These tariffs'}, {'start': '590.399', 'end': '596.279', 'text': 'make the price of goods rise and the\nfirst to be affected are consumers, for example,'}, {'start': '596.279', 'end': '603.519', 'text': 'according to Forbes, May 1 In 2025, the\naverage price of consumer electronics such as TVs'}, {'start': '603.519', 'end': '609.000', 'text': 'and cellphones has risen 8% since the beginning of the year\n, even though the new tariffs have not yet been fully'}, {'start': '609.000', 'end': '616.079', 'text': 'implemented, imagine if a 25% tariff\non Chinese goods actually went ahead, the price of a new iPhone might'}, {'start': '616.079', 'end': '620.720', 'text': 'make your wallet\nscream. The effect is not only on prices,'}, {'start': '620.720', 'end': '625.480', 'text': "the global supply chain which has been fragile\nsince the pandemic, now it's like playing"}, {'start': '625.480', 'end': '630.560', 'text': 'Jenga in the middle of a storm. Many\nUnited States companies depend on'}, {'start': '630.560', 'end': '635.880', 'text': 'imported components ranging from computer chips to\ncar parts. If tariffs make'}, {'start': '635.880', 'end': '641.519', 'text': 'these components expensive, production costs will also\nrise and ultimately selling prices to consumers'}, {'start': '641.519', 'end': '650.440', 'text': 'will also soar, data from Supply Chain\nDive 30 April 2025 said that 45%'}, {'start': '650.440', 'end': '654.880', 'text': 'of US manufacturing companies\nhad reported supply disruptions in the'}, {'start': '654.880', 'end': '659.639', 'text': 'first quarter and half of them said they\nwere not ready if tariffs were actually'}, {'start': '659.639', 'end': '666.760', 'text': 'imposed. What is even more frightening is that these tariffs\ncould trigger a trade war. China, for example,'}, {'start': '666.760', 'end': '671.240', 'text': 'has threatened retaliation with tariffs\non US goods such as'}, {'start': '671.240', 'end': '677.279', 'text': 'soybeans and pork. Canada and\nMexico are also not remaining silent. Both'}, {'start': '677.279', 'end': '682.600', 'text': 'said they are ready to impose\nretaliatory tariffs on US products'}, {'start': '682.600', 'end': '690.120', 'text': "if Trump doesn't play nice. According to\nThe Economist, 3 May 2025,"}, {'start': '690.120', 'end': '696.639', 'text': 'this trade war could happen. shrinking global trade\nby up to 7% in the next 2 years, this'}, {'start': '696.639', 'end': '701.760', 'text': 'means that not only will the United States\nbe coughing, but the world economy will also'}, {'start': '701.760', 'end': '707.160', 'text': 'catch the flu, returning to consumers, they\nare really in a bad position,'}, {'start': '707.160', 'end': '712.959', 'text': 'their wallets are already thin, prices of goods are rising and\nuncertainty about the future is making'}, {'start': '712.959', 'end': '721.279', 'text': 'people more paranoid, data from the Federal\nReserve, April 28 2025, said that the'}, {'start': '721.279', 'end': '724.440', 'text': 'personal savings rate in the United States\nfell to'}, {'start': '724.440', 'end': '730.399', 'text': '3.2%, the lowest level since\n2008, meaning that people no longer'}, {'start': '730.399', 'end': '735.120', 'text': 'have many reserves to face\neconomic shocks if the price of goods'}, {'start': '735.120', 'end': '739.440', 'text': 'continues to rise many will be forced\nto cut expenses or even borrow'}, {'start': '739.440', 'end': '744.360', 'text': 'money for daily needs with\nmortgage interest rates still high'}, {'start': '744.360', 'end': '753.360', 'text': ', averaging 7.1% according to Freddy Mac. May 2\n2025, people are finding it increasingly difficult to buy a house.'}, {'start': '753.360', 'end': '757.720', 'text': 'Sales of new homes fell 10% in\nthe first quarter and'}, {'start': '757.720', 'end': '764.120', 'text': 'average house prices in big cities like\nAustin and Phenix are starting to stagnate. This'}, {'start': '764.120', 'end': '769.680', 'text': 'has made the construction industry, which\nusually supports the economy, become sluggish,'}, {'start': '769.680', 'end': '775.000', 'text': 'carpenters, contractors and\nfurniture sellers are all starting to feel'}, {'start': '775.000', 'end': '780.720', 'text': 'the impact, not only that, the service sector\n, which is usually strong, is also starting to falter,'}, {'start': '780.720', 'end': '786.480', 'text': 'restaurants, cinemas and venues. Entertainment\nreports that visitors have dropped drastically'}, {'start': '786.480', 'end': '794.120', 'text': 'according to Yelp. 1 May 2025, restaurant reservations\nin big cities have fallen 18%'}, {'start': '794.120', 'end': '798.800', 'text': 'compared to last year. People\nprefer to cook at home or watch'}, {'start': '798.800', 'end': '803.720', 'text': 'Netflix rather than spend money on\nentertainment. This is a signal that consumer confidence'}, {'start': '803.720', 'end': '808.720', 'text': 'is plummeting and this is\nvery dangerous for an economy that depends on'}, {'start': '808.720', 'end': '813.680', 'text': 'the spending of its citizens in the midst of all\nthis chaos. There are those who say'}, {'start': '813.680', 'end': '819.519', 'text': 'the government can stop the damage if\nit acts quickly. For example, the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '819.519', 'end': '826.279', 'text': 'can cut interest rates to encourage\nspending and investment, but the problem is that'}, {'start': '826.279', 'end': '831.399', 'text': 'inflation is still stubborn and cutting\ninterest rates can make goods prices even worse.'}, {'start': '831.399', 'end': '836.639', 'text': 'The other options are increasingly wild. Trump could\nsoften the issue of tariffs, but this is like'}, {'start': '836.639', 'end': '841.639', 'text': 'asking the sun to rise from the west, which is impossible\nwith his'}, {'start': '841.639', 'end': '846.600', 'text': 'stubborn style. If you want to be realistic, the\nshort-term solution may be in the hands of'}, {'start': '846.600', 'end': '852.360', 'text': 'businesses and consumers themselves. Companies\ncan try efficiency, such as looking for'}, {'start': '852.360', 'end': '859.199', 'text': 'local suppliers or operational optimization to\nreduce consumer costs. On the other hand, you can be'}, {'start': '859.199', 'end': '863.880', 'text': 'smarter in managing your budget, for example\nswitching to cheaper substitute goods'}, {'start': '863.880', 'end': '869.279', 'text': ', but this is only a temporary solution.\nIf tariffs and trade wars'}, {'start': '869.279', 'end': '874.120', 'text': 'continue, the United States economy could\nenter a real recession and that will'}, {'start': '874.120', 'end': '880.279', 'text': 'make everyone from Wall Street\nto street vendors suffer,'}, {'start': '880.279', 'end': '886.040', 'text': 'even though the situation looks like it. gloomy, there are\nseveral bright spots, first,'}, {'start': '886.040', 'end': '891.399', 'text': 'business investment in equipment shows\nthat not everyone is pessimistic, second,'}, {'start': '891.399', 'end': '897.279', 'text': 'the United States workforce is still strong,\ndata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,'}, {'start': '897.279', 'end': '905.440', 'text': 'April 30 2025, says unemployment is only\n3.9%, a figure that is still healthy, meaning'}, {'start': '905.440', 'end': '910.759', 'text': 'people still have income\neven though their wallets are dragging, third,'}, {'start': '910.759', 'end': '915.920', 'text': 'technological innovation, especially in AI and\nrenewable energy, is still covering'}, {'start': '915.920', 'end': '921.920', 'text': 'wounds. Companies like Tesla and Nvidia\nreport double-digit growth in the'}, {'start': '921.920', 'end': '927.079', 'text': 'first quarter, proof that certain sectors\ncan still run fast even though the economy'}, {'start': '927.079', 'end': '934.000', 'text': 'is jogging ahead. Many economists\npredict the second quarter of 2025. It will be'}, {'start': '934.000', 'end': '939.759', 'text': 'decisive if tariffs are actually implemented\nand a trade war breaks out. The contraction could'}, {'start': '939.759', 'end': '945.240', 'text': 'get deeper, but if Trump can negotiate\nwith trading partners or the Fed works'}, {'start': '945.240', 'end': '949.600', 'text': 'a miracle with monetary policy,\nmaybe the United States economy can'}, {'start': '949.600', 'end': '955.000', 'text': 'return to a clear growth path\nfor ordinary citizens. Now is the time'}, {'start': '955.000', 'end': '962.839', 'text': "to hold onto your wallet tightly and pray\nthat this storm will pass quickly, ma'am"}]