Gold under pressure: NFP holds the trigger
Pepperstone
[{'start': '0.240', 'end': '5.920', 'text': 'After a week of choppy action at the highs,\xa0\nbearish pressure is back in the gold market.'}, {'start': '5.920', 'end': '11.440', 'text': 'What’s been driving the recent moves? And\xa0\nare we more likely to see a continuation—or a'}, {'start': '11.440', 'end': '17.520', 'text': 'reversal—in the short term? All that and more\xa0\nin this week’s episode of As Good As Gold!'}, {'start': '17.520', 'end': '21.840', 'text': "Greetings, fellow traders! I'm Dilin,\xa0\na Research Strategist at Pepperstone,"}, {'start': '21.840', 'end': '26.080', 'text': 'presenting the latest weekly\xa0\nupdate on "As Good As Gold.”'}, {'start': '26.080', 'end': '31.760', 'text': 'After surging to a record high\xa0\nof $3,500, gold has pulled back,'}, {'start': '31.760', 'end': '37.840', 'text': 'with bears now taking the driver’s seat.\xa0\nA combination of easing tariff tensions,'}, {'start': '37.840', 'end': '43.360', 'text': 'reduced recession bets in the U.S., and the Fed’s\xa0\nwait-and-see stance on interest rates are all'}, {'start': '43.360', 'end': '49.760', 'text': 'putting pressure on gold’s rally. Friday’s nonfarm\xa0\npayrolls report could shake things up again.'}, {'start': '50.400', 'end': '56.640', 'text': 'Looking at the XAUUSD daily chart, gold spent\xa0\nmuch of last week stuck in a tight range between'}, {'start': '56.640', 'end': '63.600', 'text': '$3,260 and $3,380, as bulls and bears fought for\xa0\ncontrol. But on Thursday, selling pressure broke'}, {'start': '63.600', 'end': '69.440', 'text': 'the deadlock, dragging prices below the lower\xa0\nbound of that range. Gold is now struggling'}, {'start': '69.440', 'end': '77.200', 'text': 'near the 20-day moving average. If the selloff\xa0\ncontinues, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of'}, {'start': '77.200', 'end': '84.080', 'text': 'the rally since early April — around $3,162, which\xa0\nalso aligns with the April 3 swing high — could'}, {'start': '84.080', 'end': '90.880', 'text': 'act as a support. On the flip side, if bulls step\xa0\nback in and drive prices back into the range,'}, {'start': '90.880', 'end': '97.200', 'text': '$3,380 remains the key resistance level\xa0\nto watch for signs of a renewed uptrend.'}, {'start': '97.200', 'end': '102.320', 'text': 'In my view, this pullback in gold reflects\xa0\na broader shift in market sentiment. In the'}, {'start': '102.320', 'end': '107.680', 'text': 'short term, three factors are driving\xa0\ngold’s direction: U.S. tariff talks,'}, {'start': '107.680', 'end': '113.120', 'text': 'a reassessment of the U.S. economic\xa0\noutlook, and the Fed’s policy path.'}, {'start': '113.120', 'end': '119.920', 'text': 'As trade tensions ease — especially with Trump\xa0\ndialing down the rhetoric on China and Beijing'}, {'start': '119.920', 'end': '126.240', 'text': 'signaling a willingness to negotiate — the\xa0\n“sell America” narrative is losing steam.'}, {'start': '126.240', 'end': '132.400', 'text': 'That’s cooled safe-haven demand, dragging on\xa0\ngold. While the talks may progress slowly,'}, {'start': '132.400', 'end': '136.640', 'text': 'market fears around tariffs have\xa0\neased for now. Sentiment has shifted'}, {'start': '136.640', 'end': '142.480', 'text': 'from panic to cautious optimism, and\xa0\nthat shift is weighing on gold prices.'}, {'start': '142.480', 'end': '146.320', 'text': 'Meanwhile, despite some weak\xa0\nconsumer confidence numbers,'}, {'start': '146.320', 'end': '152.400', 'text': 'better-than-expected prints in durable goods\xa0\norders (thanks largely to transportation and'}, {'start': '152.400', 'end': '160.240', 'text': 'defense) and ISM manufacturing PMI have helped\xa0\ncalm recession fears — another headwind for gold.'}, {'start': '161.520', 'end': '166.480', 'text': 'Together, these shifts have pulled\xa0\nthe gold narrative away from “credit'}, {'start': '166.480', 'end': '170.480', 'text': 'risk” and back toward “rate expectations.”'}, {'start': '170.480', 'end': '175.680', 'text': 'Even though Trump has made it clear he\xa0\nwon’t remove Powell — preserving the'}, {'start': '175.680', 'end': '184.000', 'text': 'Fed’s independence — the rate cut outlook remains\xa0\ncloudy. March’s core PCE slowed on a year-on-year'}, {'start': '184.000', 'end': '191.040', 'text': 'basis, supporting the case for rate cuts, but it\xa0\ndoesn’t yet reflect the impact of tariffs. And Q1'}, {'start': '191.040', 'end': '198.040', 'text': 'GDP turning negative was largely driven by a surge\xa0\nin imports ahead of expected tariffs. So both the'}, {'start': '198.040', 'end': '204.560', 'text': 'inflation and growth data are currently distorted,\xa0\noffering little clarity for the Fed’s next move.'}, {'start': '204.560', 'end': '211.440', 'text': 'At the same time, tariffs may have asymmetric\xa0\neffects on inflation and growth: prices tend'}, {'start': '211.440', 'end': '218.240', 'text': 'to spike quickly, but the drag on the economy\xa0\nshows up more gradually. This mismatch could'}, {'start': '218.240', 'end': '224.320', 'text': 'keep the Fed in “wait and see” mode — delaying\xa0\ncuts and capping gold’s upside in the near term.'}, {'start': '224.320', 'end': '230.240', 'text': 'All in all, with trade tensions easing, recession\xa0\nrisks fading, and the Fed sitting on its hands,'}, {'start': '230.240', 'end': '236.400', 'text': 'gold may remain under pressure in the short term.\xa0\nThat said, on a broader time frame, underlying'}, {'start': '236.400', 'end': '242.400', 'text': 'drivers like continued central bank gold buying,\xa0\npersistent geopolitical uncertainty, ballooning'}, {'start': '242.400', 'end': '250.240', 'text': 'U.S. debt, and Trump’s unpredictable tariff stance\xa0\nshould continue to provide a floor for prices.'}, {'start': '250.240', 'end': '257.680', 'text': 'Of course, all eyes are now on today’s nonfarm\xa0\npayrolls report. The market consensus is for'}, {'start': '257.680', 'end': '265.360', 'text': '130,000 jobs added in April, down sharply from\xa0\nMarch’s 228,000, with the unemployment rate steady'}, {'start': '265.360', 'end': '272.240', 'text': 'at 4.2%. Given that a soft jobs print is already\xa0\npriced in, a truly disappointing number — say,'}, {'start': '272.240', 'end': '277.920', 'text': 'job growth below 80,000 and a clear rise\xa0\nin the unemployment rate — could reignite'}, {'start': '277.920', 'end': '284.160', 'text': 'recession fears. In that case, markets may\xa0\nbring forward expectations for a June Fed cut,'}, {'start': '284.160', 'end': '287.760', 'text': 'potentially giving gold another\xa0\nshot at fresh highs. Otherwise,'}, {'start': '287.760', 'end': '291.680', 'text': 'gold may need a new catalyst\xa0\nto kickstart the next leg up.'}, {'start': '294.000', 'end': '297.200', 'text': 'If this video was helpful,\xa0\ndon’t forget to subscribe,'}, {'start': '297.200', 'end': '301.280', 'text': 'like, and spread the love! If you\xa0\nhave any ideas on how the upcoming'}, {'start': '301.280', 'end': '306.400', 'text': "events might impact gold trading, drop a\xa0\ncomment below, and let's chat about it."}, {'start': '306.400', 'end': '316.320', 'text': 'Stay tuned with Pepperstone for more insights\xa0\nand updates. And until then, happy trading!'}]