2025/05/02(五)  關稅扯後腿！蘋果、亞馬遜財報後下跌，輝達解禁救股價
財女珍妮
[{'start': '16.866', 'end': '18.066', 'text': "Hello everyone, I'm Juanni."}, {'start': '18.066', 'end': '20.100', 'text': "Today I'm going to continue to share with you the recent events of the U.S. stock market."}, {'start': '20.733', 'end': '24.066', 'text': 'Today is Friday, May 2, 2025. The'}, {'start': '24.066', 'end': '26.200', 'text': "topic I'm going to share with you today is how tariffs are holding back"}, {'start': '26.200', 'end': '29.000', 'text': "Apple and Amazon's earnings reports, and their stock prices"}, {'start': '29.000', 'end': '30.466', 'text': "are both falling. And will Nvidia's"}, {'start': '31.766', 'end': '33.500', 'text': 'stock price be saved after the ban is lifted?'}, {'start': '33.500', 'end': '36.133', 'text': 'When I saw the comments just now, someone said, "Have a nice weekend," and I thought, "'}, {'start': '39.066', 'end': '39.966', 'text': 'Today is actually Friday. I had a day off yesterday, so I'}, {'start': '39.966', 'end': '41.900', 'text': 'forgot what day of the week it was today.'}, {'start': '41.900', 'end': '43.700', 'text': "Although it doesn't make any difference to me,"}, {'start': '43.700', 'end': '45.533', 'text': "because I went out to eat yesterday, and I had a day off and Mother's Day was"}, {'start': '45.533', 'end': '48.200', 'text': 'coming, there were'}, {'start': '48.200', 'end': '50.266', 'text': 'really a lot of people outside.'}, {'start': '50.333', 'end': '51.133', 'text': 'I saw on podcsat that a'}, {'start': '51.133', 'end': '52.000', 'text': 'reader asked'}, {'start': '52.000', 'end': '53.900', 'text': 'why there were no market highlights on'}, {'start': '53.900', 'end': '55.500', 'text': 'Saturdays, because we update everyone with the'}, {'start': '55.500', 'end': '56.900', 'text': 'highlights of the previous day every day.'}, {'start': '56.900', 'end': '58.800', 'text': 'But according to'}, {'start': '73.766', 'end': '75.466', 'text': "my own measurements, there are really not many people watching the live broadcast on Saturdays. I think it's because everyone may not have gotten up yet, unlike me. I'm used to getting up at around 6 o'clock every day. Even on weekends, everyone gets up at around 6 o'clock. So"}, {'start': '88.466', 'end': '90.533', 'text': 'everyone is still reading financial information during their commuting time, so we focus on'}, {'start': '90.533', 'end': '91.400', 'text': 'Mondays. I have seriously thought about it myself. If there are'}, {'start': '91.400', 'end': '93.066', 'text': 'some things that I don’t have time to talk about, can I use videos to share them with you? But if I really want to,'}, {'start': '94.400', 'end': '96.866', 'text': 'I may need to find a professional editor.'}, {'start': '96.966', 'end': '97.733', 'text': 'After all, my homepage is'}, {'start': '97.733', 'end': '99.600', 'text': 'still on investment and research. Editing videos really takes a lot of time. So please like and subscribe to'}, {'start': '99.600', 'end': '101.333', 'text': 'us, and turn on the little bell so that more people can see the program. Encourage us to organize'}, {'start': '108.733', 'end': '111.666', 'text': 'information every day so that everyone can see the latest financial information. At the beginning of the program, let’s spend some business'}, {'start': '117.733', 'end': '119.500', 'text': 'time with you and share with you a platform that makes'}, {'start': '122.800', 'end': '125.600', 'text': 'investment super efficient. The AI \u200b\u200bstock selection'}, {'start': '130.100', 'end': '132.900', 'text': 'function of the growin platform will automatically analyze the Taiwan and US stock markets and compile a ranking list worthy of attention. You can quickly grasp market trends, which is very practical for busy office workers. In addition, the built-in vivo NGPT can provide professional analysis of the fundamentals, technical'}, {'start': '142.400', 'end': '144.633', 'text': 'aspects and industry trends of stocks, and attach relevant data to help you make more informed investment decisions. The platform'}, {'start': '146.966', 'end': '148.766', 'text': 'also provides restrained strategy push notifications and an active'}, {'start': '148.766', 'end': '150.333', 'text': 'Discord investment community. Professional investors share market insights from time'}, {'start': '152.300', 'end': '154.666', 'text': 'to time, as well as live broadcasts of per-share analysis. You'}, {'start': '167.133', 'end': '167.933', 'text': 'can enjoy these'}, {'start': '167.933', 'end': '170.933', 'text': 'AI functions for only $4 a month. The CP value is very high. I recommend that everyone'}, {'start': '173.133', 'end': '174.300', 'text': 'try it out. After'}, {'start': '177.666', 'end': '179.166', 'text': "registering, you can try out the trial course, the video and the website. Enter the discount code JENNYSP to enjoy an additional 15% discount on any annual plan. I'll put the link in the information column. Okay, let's"}, {'start': '187.966', 'end': '190.500', 'text': 'take a look at the closing performance of the U.S. stock market'}, {'start': '190.500', 'end': '192.700', 'text': 'yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, the SNB500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq rose 1%, the NTD'}, {'start': '194.300', 'end': '197.466', 'text': 'Index rose 0.4%, and the Dow 2,000 rose 0.6%.'}, {'start': '197.466', 'end': '198.900', 'text': 'You can see that the'}, {'start': '200.733', 'end': '203.200', 'text': 'SNP500 index has risen for 8 consecutive days. Although it has been in a volatile market, it still closed higher, setting the longest winning streak since August last year. The Nasdaq index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index have also'}, {'start': '204.266', 'end': '205.400', 'text': 'been affected'}, {'start': '205.400', 'end': '206.600', 'text': 'by the'}, {'start': '206.600', 'end': '208.533', 'text': 'easing of tariff policies. Technology stocks are actually'}, {'start': '209.066', 'end': '211.166', 'text': 'more optimistic about the future of'}, {'start': '219.666', 'end': '221.766', 'text': 'dividends and the economy, so they have also pushed up their trends. However, compared with the previous two days, I think the intra-day volatility'}, {'start': '221.766', 'end': '224.133', 'text': "yesterday was actually more average, that is, you didn't see a situation where it went all the way"}, {'start': '229.533', 'end': '230.400', 'text': 'up or all the way down. Is there a'}, {'start': '230.400', 'end': '233.733', 'text': 'non-farm payrolls index tonight?'}, {'start': '240.600', 'end': '241.966', 'text': 'Well, this matter will'}, {'start': '241.966', 'end': '243.366', 'text': "of course affect the market's expectations for the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. So, we can pay close attention to which"}, {'start': '243.366', 'end': '245.533', 'text': 'direction the employment data'}, {'start': '245.533', 'end': '246.666', 'text': 'tonight will go. But yesterday we also'}, {'start': '246.666', 'end': '248.566', 'text': 'saw another data related to the employment market, that is, the number of'}, {'start': '249.333', 'end': '252.900', 'text': 'people who applied for unemployment benefits yesterday exceeded market expectations. The'}, {'start': '256.700', 'end': '259.933', 'text': 'number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits also set a new record since 2021. Last'}, {'start': '259.933', 'end': '262.600', 'text': 'week, the number of'}, {'start': '267.766', 'end': '270.266', 'text': 'people applying for unemployment benefits reached 241,000, which was higher than the market expectation of 223,000, and it was also'}, {'start': '270.266', 'end': '272.400', 'text': 'a significant increase from the'}, {'start': '279.100', 'end': '282.900', 'text': '222,000 in the previous week. The market will worry, is there really a sign of a slowdown in the job'}, {'start': '283.100', 'end': '285.666', 'text': 'market? If you look at the regional data'}, {'start': '285.666', 'end': '288.933', 'text': 'today, New York alone has added about 15,500 applications. In the unadjusted data, the overall increase in the United States has actually increased significantly. Usually, holidays such as Easter will cause fluctuations in the data, but this'}, {'start': '302.166', 'end': '305.066', 'text': "time the number of applications is indeed significantly higher. This is also a focus of everyone's attention after seeing the data. But I think another data"}, {'start': '305.066', 'end': '307.000', 'text': 'is more important. Do you know'}, {'start': '307.000', 'end': '308.566', 'text': 'what data it is? The'}, {'start': '308.566', 'end': '310.600', 'text': 'ISM manufacturing index dropped from 49 last month to 48.7. Although this time it was higher than'}, {'start': '310.600', 'end': '312.900', 'text': 'market expectations, it'}, {'start': '317.200', 'end': '319.533', 'text': 'was the biggest drop since November last year. And is 50 the boom-bust line? Above 50 means growth, and below 50 means contraction. It'}, {'start': '320.900', 'end': '323.800', 'text': 'has been in the contraction range for two consecutive months. Insufficient orders have caused the'}, {'start': '333.933', 'end': '336.533', 'text': 'output index to fall the most since 2020 in this month. So the challenges'}, {'start': '336.533', 'end': '338.200', 'text': 'facing the manufacturing industry include the first one is the tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, and the second one is the uncertainty of the overall'}, {'start': '338.200', 'end': '339.700', 'text': 'trade environment. Many companies are still conservative when they are expanding. When you place an order, there'}, {'start': '339.700', 'end': '341.466', 'text': 'may be a'}, {'start': '350.366', 'end': '353.500', 'text': 'phenomenon of delayed delivery. In this month, the order volume has shrunk for three consecutive months, and the backlog of'}, {'start': '354.566', 'end': '357.700', 'text': 'orders'}, {'start': '357.700', 'end': '360.100', 'text': 'has also accelerated. We are more worried about this because we are usually more conservative about future progress. When you place fewer orders, it will slowly be reflected in the hard data in the future. That is, the output we'}, {'start': '360.100', 'end': '362.666', 'text': 'see and the'}, {'start': '362.666', 'end': '365.166', 'text': 'consumption momentum we see may all be a block. If we look at the details, you can see that the new order'}, {'start': '365.166', 'end': '367.766', 'text': 'index has slightly'}, {'start': '367.766', 'end': '369.866', 'text': 'rebounded to 47.2'}, {'start': '375.266', 'end': '377.100', 'text': 'compared with'}, {'start': '385.000', 'end': '386.300', 'text': 'the previous month, but it has not broken through. Has it broken'}, {'start': '390.200', 'end': '394.766', 'text': 'through the expansion threshold of 150? We just mentioned that the production index actually fell sharply to 44, indicating that output is also shrinking. You said that although the job market has improved slightly, if you look at the supply chain situation, including the supplier delivery index, it actually rose to 55.2, indicating that the'}, {'start': '394.766', 'end': '396.300', 'text': 'bottleneck of'}, {'start': '404.133', 'end': '406.600', 'text': 'logistics has reappeared. Is it because of the effect of'}, {'start': '407.733', 'end': '410.133', 'text': 'early delivery? After all, the effect of early'}, {'start': '410.133', 'end': '413.000', 'text': 'delivery will gradually ease. Another very important thing is that you can see that the dark blue line is the price index. In'}, {'start': '414.966', 'end': '416.266', 'text': 'this month, manufacturers are still facing the pressure of rising costs. The'}, {'start': '416.266', 'end': '417.866', 'text': 'raw material price index remains at a high'}, {'start': '417.866', 'end': '419.500', 'text': 'level of 69.8, indicating that inflation pressure is still in a relatively rising or high situation. Many companies have said that the tariff issue has'}, {'start': '425.200', 'end': '426.566', 'text': 'gradually penetrated into all links of the supply chain. In addition'}, {'start': '439.966', 'end': '441.966', 'text': 'to the direct suppliers being affected, the stimulated suppliers have also begun to reduce the cost of price changes. And manufacturers of transportation equipment are also mentioned in'}, {'start': '446.800', 'end': '448.266', 'text': 'this. They said that the customs clearance procedures have actually been'}, {'start': '449.900', 'end': '452.833', 'text': 'greatly delayed. In addition to the complicated tariff calculations, even Trump The government has no way to explain clearly what our tariffs are, and how to set them and what the standard numbers are. So this will delay the time because it is'}, {'start': '454.566', 'end': '457.066', 'text': 'very confusing. You will have to'}, {'start': '463.900', 'end': '465.966', 'text': 'submit documents for review, and then it will be'}, {'start': '465.966', 'end': '467.800', 'text': 'more'}, {'start': '467.800', 'end': '469.566', 'text': 'difficult for these manufacturers to plan their operations. Whether it is the increase in direct costs or the pain period caused by the increase in complexity and the reorganization of the'}, {'start': '470.666', 'end': '473.166', 'text': 'supply chain, these are actually the main reasons why the ISM manufacturing index continues to decline'}, {'start': '473.166', 'end': '473.933', 'text': 'this time. So after the data was released, everyone will see'}, {'start': '478.900', 'end': '481.600', 'text': 'a'}, {'start': '481.600', 'end': '483.800', 'text': 'very contradictory phenomenon.'}, {'start': '483.800', 'end': '485.333', 'text': 'As we just said, the'}, {'start': '485.333', 'end': '487.333', 'text': 'manufacturing index is better than market expectations, but it is still below the'}, {'start': '487.333', 'end': '488.600', 'text': 'boom-bust line.'}, {'start': '488.600', 'end': '491.466', 'text': 'However, after the data was released, everyone turned this news into a positive news, or they thought that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates at a'}, {'start': '501.066', 'end': '502.600', 'text': 'relatively high level in the future because of this'}, {'start': '502.600', 'end': '504.066', 'text': "data. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's"}, {'start': '504.066', 'end': '507.366', 'text': 'future rate cuts has actually begun to decline significantly. The reaction in the bond market is quite obvious. Since mid-April, we can see that bond'}, {'start': '509.333', 'end': '511.600', 'text': 'yields have shown a downward trend. However, after the data was released yesterday, there was a slight rebound. The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond, which is the most sensitive to monetary policy, has'}, {'start': '511.600', 'end': '514.600', 'text': 'rebounded to around 3.7%.'}, {'start': '514.600', 'end': '516.100', 'text': 'However, if we look at it from a'}, {'start': '516.100', 'end': '518.266', 'text': 'longer-term'}, {'start': '523.133', 'end': '525.066', 'text': 'perspective, the 2-year yield has dropped from 3.9% in early April to 3.7%. The 10-year'}, {'start': '531.333', 'end': '533.600', 'text': 'Treasury yield has also dropped from 4.6% to around 4.2%. As we mentioned before, you may feel that we have'}, {'start': '540.866', 'end': '543.000', 'text': 'not shared with you the performance of bonds'}, {'start': '543.000', 'end': '545.400', 'text': 'or yields during this period, at least this week. My opinion has not changed. I think that for bonds'}, {'start': '545.400', 'end': '546.700', 'text': 'now, if you look at it'}, {'start': '549.366', 'end': '551.466', 'text': 'from the perspective of fixed income or asset'}, {'start': '552.466', 'end': '554.933', 'text': 'allocation, the uncertainty of tariff policies'}, {'start': '557.166', 'end': '559.633', 'text': 'will indeed lead to a relatively large change in its benefits. However, for long'}, {'start': '561.400', 'end': '563.200', 'text': '-term bond investors, you are concerned about cash flow, whether the company can pay the cash flow, or whether the US government is likely to default, and whether the current'}, {'start': '565.166', 'end': '567.666', 'text': 'yield is attractive enough to you. In terms of opportunity cost, which one can bear'}, {'start': '569.933', 'end': '570.933', 'text': "less risk but bring satisfactory returns, bonds or other risky assets? We don't need to mention this every day because the worst situation"}, {'start': '575.966', 'end': '577.566', 'text': 'seems to have passed in terms of current policies. When the extreme value has occurred, the next step is to slowly close the gap from the'}, {'start': '590.266', 'end': '592.400', 'text': 'huge fluctuations, and then to a period of calm.'}, {'start': '594.566', 'end': '596.933', 'text': 'Then we will see whether there are any adjustments to the monetary policy and tariff policy, and then set off the next wave of trend rebound.'}, {'start': '601.333', 'end': '602.866', 'text': 'So I'}, {'start': '602.866', 'end': '605.800', 'text': 'think this'}, {'start': '607.566', 'end': '609.000', 'text': 'matter is actually still ongoing. The market currently expects'}, {'start': '609.000', 'end': '610.666', 'text': '3-4 interest rate cuts this year, which is still relatively reasonable and similar to the previous ones. Unless there is a major shock to the economy and the risk of recession increases significantly, you need to take more active measures today. In addition, the current prices are actually at a relatively high level. Will people always be'}, {'start': '618.066', 'end': '620.866', 'text': 'so impulsive'}, {'start': '620.866', 'end': '622.100', 'text': 'and want to take the risk of stagflation? I think the probability of this is relatively low. In addition,'}, {'start': '625.400', 'end': '627.900', 'text': 'Finance Minister'}, {'start': '636.733', 'end': '639.300', 'text': 'Bessant continues to appease everyone in front of the media. Did we talk about this before? Bessant said, you see, the fluctuations in April were so large, and in the end, we actually recovered the losses since April 2. Why does no one praise the government for doing a good job? They'}, {'start': '639.766', 'end': '642.366', 'text': 'only tell the'}, {'start': '644.266', 'end': '646.366', 'text': 'government that your policies are not good when the market falls, but no one when the'}, {'start': '646.366', 'end': '648.333', 'text': 'market rises. To'}, {'start': '648.333', 'end': '651.766', 'text': 'show that they admire you very much. Did they'}, {'start': '653.533', 'end': '654.300', 'text': 'say thank you? Is this a good feeling? In an interview with Fox Business Channel, Benson clearly stated that he'}, {'start': '654.300', 'end': '656.066', 'text': 'believed that the two-year interest rate is'}, {'start': '657.866', 'end': '659.566', 'text': 'now lower than the'}, {'start': '659.566', 'end': '661.266', 'text': 'federal funds rate. This'}, {'start': '661.266', 'end': '661.900', 'text': 'is a'}, {'start': '661.900', 'end': '664.600', 'text': 'market signal, indicating that they believe the Fed should cut interest rates. Why is there such a situation? It means that the expectation of the'}, {'start': '667.166', 'end': '668.300', 'text': 'two-year'}, {'start': '668.300', 'end': '669.200', 'text': 'Treasury bond value is a reflection of a certain part of the'}, {'start': '676.900', 'end': '679.166', 'text': 'expectation. Today, it has'}, {'start': '679.200', 'end': '681.400', 'text': 'fallen below the current benchmark interest rate, which means that the'}, {'start': '682.566', 'end': '685.200', 'text': "market's expectations for the future monetary policy direction are also continuing to make a late-term. The"}, {'start': '687.666', 'end': '690.133', 'text': 'current two-year Treasury bond yield is maintained at about 3.5-3.6%. Compared with the current federal funds rate of about 4.3%, this interest rate gap means that the current interest'}, {'start': '696.400', 'end': '698.000', 'text': 'rate level is too high. However, as we just'}, {'start': '698.000', 'end': '699.900', 'text': 'said, the Fed is'}, {'start': '699.900', 'end': '700.766', 'text': 'not in a hurry to adjust its policy stance. The main reason'}, {'start': '703.100', 'end': '704.566', 'text': 'is that inflation is'}, {'start': '704.566', 'end': '706.200', 'text': 'still above the 2% target. If'}, {'start': '706.200', 'end': '707.600', 'text': 'future'}, {'start': '707.866', 'end': '710.066', 'text': 'tariffs bring price pressure, will it have the effect of stagflation? So when Bessant was talking,'}, {'start': '710.066', 'end': '712.866', 'text': 'he'}, {'start': '712.966', 'end': '715.366', 'text': "didn't mean to influence the"}, {'start': '715.366', 'end': '717.733', 'text': "Fed's pace. He just thought that the market's expectations were like this. So would the Fed follow the market's expectations and make its next move in the future? They actually focused on the 10-year Treasury yield."}, {'start': '717.733', 'end': '720.933', 'text': "Since Trump's treatment on January 20 this year, we can also see that the"}, {'start': '726.700', 'end': '728.400', 'text': 'Treasury yield has dropped from 4.6% to about 4.2%. The'}, {'start': '728.400', 'end': '730.533', 'text': 'decline in Treasury yields, or the decline in long-term bond yields, is'}, {'start': '730.533', 'end': '733.666', 'text': "conducive to reducing the government's interest burden. So when the"}, {'start': '733.800', 'end': '735.933', 'text': 'market believes that the Treasury'}, {'start': '738.133', 'end': '739.466', 'text': 'will not issue large amounts of bonds and will no longer have such'}, {'start': '739.466', 'end': '741.266', 'text': 'large expenditures,'}, {'start': '741.266', 'end': '743.400', 'text': "then today's expectations for future inflation"}, {'start': '743.400', 'end': '745.666', 'text': 'may not be so panic that it will'}, {'start': '745.666', 'end': '747.966', 'text': "cause the bond children's balance sheet review."}, {'start': '747.966', 'end': '748.900', 'text': 'This'}, {'start': '748.900', 'end': '751.700', 'text': 'is a gap between the Treasury or officials and the Fed in'}, {'start': '751.700', 'end': '753.033', 'text': 'their policies,'}, {'start': '753.200', 'end': '753.700', 'text': 'expectations,'}, {'start': '753.700', 'end': '756.266', 'text': 'or future prospects. Well, as'}, {'start': '756.266', 'end': '757.333', 'text': 'we just said,'}, {'start': '757.333', 'end': '759.100', 'text': 'Bessant said that you should cut interest rates,'}, {'start': '759.100', 'end': '761.733', 'text': 'but former Treasury Secretary Summers'}, {'start': '761.733', 'end': '764.366', 'text': 'holds a different view.'}, {'start': '764.366', 'end': '765.200', 'text': 'He believes that the'}, {'start': '765.200', 'end': '767.366', 'text': 'market trend is not the'}, {'start': '767.366', 'end': '768.666', 'text': 'basis for the Fed to cut interest rates.'}, {'start': '768.800', 'end': '769.533', 'text': 'Because the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '769.533', 'end': '771.766', 'text': 'must have its own independence, right?'}, {'start': '771.766', 'end': '773.133', 'text': 'And if you cut interest rates now'}, {'start': '773.133', 'end': '775.133', 'text': 'because the market thinks you should cut'}, {'start': '775.133', 'end': '776.566', 'text': 'interest rates,'}, {'start': '776.566', 'end': '779.000', 'text': 'then he thinks it is a serious mistake. So,'}, {'start': '779.466', 'end': '781.866', 'text': 'I think the Federal Reserve should still be a system. The latter'}, {'start': '781.866', 'end': '785.233', 'text': 'is what I saw today.'}, {'start': '785.566', 'end': '786.300', 'text': 'I have always believed that Mr. Tian does'}, {'start': '786.966', 'end': '789.666', 'text': 'not need to take any action in advance.'}, {'start': '789.666', 'end': '792.400', 'text': 'Because if you take'}, {'start': '800.200', 'end': '802.366', 'text': 'action too early today, if you reach out to the market too early today, sometimes it may not be a good thing for the market. If you have studied economics before, do you know that the market actually has an automatic adjustment'}, {'start': '802.366', 'end': '804.566', 'text': 'mechanism. Whether it is through supply and demand'}, {'start': '804.566', 'end': '806.366', 'text': 'or the cyclical nature of the market today, it'}, {'start': '806.366', 'end': '809.666', 'text': 'can eventually achieve the effect of mean reversion.'}, {'start': '809.733', 'end': '811.866', 'text': 'Sometimes your policies are like Trump. The'}, {'start': '811.866', 'end': '813.700', 'text': 'government has'}, {'start': '813.700', 'end': '816.333', 'text': 'too many intervention measures. You impose too many protection measures and'}, {'start': '816.333', 'end': '817.566', 'text': 'tariff policies. In fact,'}, {'start': '817.566', 'end': '819.033', 'text': 'sometimes it'}, {'start': '819.133', 'end': '820.800', 'text': 'stimulates market fluctuations.'}, {'start': '820.933', 'end': '822.666', 'text': 'And I haven’t mentioned it before.'}, {'start': '822.666', 'end': '825.333', 'text': 'Damodaran is a professor in the Department of Finance at New York University.'}, {'start': '826.966', 'end': '829.166', 'text': 'He wrote an article saying that if the Federal Reserve'}, {'start': '829.166', 'end': '830.200', 'text': '’s actions are'}, {'start': '830.200', 'end': '834.000', 'text': 'not allowed to be predicted by the market for too long, the'}, {'start': '835.466', 'end': '838.200', 'text': 'performance of the capital market and the stock market will be better.'}, {'start': '838.200', 'end': '840.666', 'text': 'So under many factors,'}, {'start': '840.700', 'end': '842.100', 'text': 'everyone will know one thing'}, {'start': '842.100', 'end': '845.300', 'text': 'Actually, anticipating what will happen to the policy is actually the'}, {'start': '845.300', 'end': '847.933', 'text': 'root of the chaos,'}, {'start': '847.933', 'end': '850.900', 'text': 'not a factor to appease the chaos. Well,'}, {'start': '850.900', 'end': '853.466', 'text': 'of course, Trump has also spoken out.'}, {'start': '853.466', 'end': '855.533', 'text': 'He has frankly said recently that'}, {'start': '855.533', 'end': '858.200', 'text': 'tariffs do have political risks,'}, {'start': '858.200', 'end': '861.866', 'text': 'but he is not in a hurry to reach a trade agreement. In fact,'}, {'start': '862.000', 'end': '863.900', 'text': 'he'}, {'start': '863.900', 'end': '864.533', 'text': 'said recently that'}, {'start': '864.533', 'end': '867.666', 'text': 'he also knows that in the process of tariff negotiations,'}, {'start': '867.666', 'end': '869.933', 'text': 'he must take a very extreme'}, {'start': '869.933', 'end': '871.566', 'text': 'position to reach an agreement. That'}, {'start': '871.566', 'end': '873.800', 'text': 'is, my figures can reflect that'}, {'start': '873.800', 'end': '875.966', 'text': 'I can be very tough this year,'}, {'start': '876.000', 'end': '876.533', 'text': 'but the'}, {'start': '876.533', 'end': '878.366', 'text': 'worst case or the worst case'}, {'start': '878.366', 'end': '879.100', 'text': 'is probably like that. The'}, {'start': '879.100', 'end': '881.300', 'text': 'rest is how much benefit you are willing to give me, and then'}, {'start': '881.300', 'end': '883.366', 'text': 'we can sit down and talk.'}, {'start': '883.366', 'end': '883.966', 'text': 'So,'}, {'start': '883.966', 'end': '886.700', 'text': 'he believes that there is still a great chance to'}, {'start': '886.700', 'end': '887.800', 'text': 'reach an'}, {'start': '887.800', 'end': '890.533', 'text': 'agreement with China. How is the Chinese side of the agreement at this stage?'}, {'start': '890.533', 'end': '892.066', 'text': 'I think the attitude has also softened a little. In fact, both sides'}, {'start': '892.066', 'end': '894.166', 'text': 'should soften'}, {'start': '894.166', 'end': '896.600', 'text': "because after all, you can't"}, {'start': '896.600', 'end': '897.500', 'text': 'cut'}, {'start': '897.500', 'end': '899.933', 'text': 'off the trade between the two parties under 180280.'}, {'start': '899.933', 'end': '902.000', 'text': 'But your relationship is so close.'}, {'start': '902.000', 'end': '904.266', 'text': 'In addition, Apple and Amazon, which we will talk about later,'}, {'start': '905.200', 'end': '907.200', 'text': 'have many supply chains'}, {'start': '907.200', 'end': '909.666', 'text': 'or a very large market,'}, {'start': '909.666', 'end': '911.700', 'text': 'or in terms of suppliers,'}, {'start': '911.700', 'end': '912.266', 'text': 'he must go.'}, {'start': '912.266', 'end': '914.166', 'text': 'Considering the cost when purchasing goods,'}, {'start': '914.166', 'end': '916.133', 'text': 'how could you allow this matter to continue to'}, {'start': '916.133', 'end': '917.800', 'text': 'develop indefinitely? So'}, {'start': '917.800', 'end': '921.533', 'text': 'according to reports from relevant media of China Central Television, the'}, {'start': '921.533', 'end': '922.533', 'text': 'US government has'}, {'start': '922.533', 'end': '924.666', 'text': 'recently'}, {'start': '924.666', 'end': '928.000', 'text': 'tried to start tariff negotiations with China through multiple channels.'}, {'start': '928.133', 'end': '929.900', 'text': 'I think there will be this news today, it must be that China'}, {'start': '929.900', 'end': '931.933', 'text': 'thinks they can also talk. When'}, {'start': '931.933', 'end': '933.066', 'text': 'Trump also thinks they can talk and'}, {'start': '933.066', 'end': '934.166', 'text': 'China also thinks they can talk,'}, {'start': '934.166', 'end': '937.200', 'text': 'then everyone should take a good look at it and'}, {'start': '937.666', 'end': '939.466', 'text': 'see what the situation is.'}, {'start': '939.466', 'end': '941.066', 'text': 'Trump has actually noticed that the'}, {'start': '941.066', 'end': '942.966', 'text': 'decline in freight volume'}, {'start': '942.966', 'end': '944.300', 'text': 'may prompt'}, {'start': '944.333', 'end': '946.666', 'text': 'China to start talks as soon as possible.'}, {'start': '946.666', 'end': '949.000', 'text': 'But other Chinese people said that it'}, {'start': '949.000', 'end': '950.733', 'text': 'was actually the United States that was touching us now. It came to'}, {'start': '950.733', 'end': '952.566', 'text': 'contact us first. Anyway,'}, {'start': '952.700', 'end': '954.000', 'text': 'I think this matter,'}, {'start': '954.000', 'end': '955.200', 'text': 'everyone does not need to think about whether I'}, {'start': '955.200', 'end': '956.700', 'text': 'support China'}, {'start': '956.700', 'end': '957.566', 'text': 'or the United States,'}, {'start': '957.566', 'end': '959.266', 'text': 'or whose statement I believe. To be'}, {'start': '959.266', 'end': '960.100', 'text': 'honest,'}, {'start': '960.100', 'end': '962.000', 'text': 'I don’t believe what either of them said. What I believe'}, {'start': '962.100', 'end': '962.800', 'text': 'is what'}, {'start': '962.800', 'end': '964.800', 'text': 'they actually did. Did'}, {'start': '964.800', 'end': '967.366', 'text': 'you really extend that friendly hand?'}, {'start': '967.366', 'end': '969.566', 'text': 'Or is there a real substantive agreement'}, {'start': '969.566', 'end': '972.466', 'text': '? Did you notice that there was news yesterday?'}, {'start': '972.466', 'end': '974.200', 'text': 'I found that it seemed that the Chinese media'}, {'start': '974.200', 'end': '975.900', 'text': 'kept saying that'}, {'start': '975.900', 'end': '977.600', 'text': 'Hassett said that'}, {'start': '977.600', 'end': '979.466', 'text': 'some agreements might be released soon, and there would'}, {'start': '979.466', 'end': '981.000', 'text': 'be some first'}, {'start': '981.000', 'end': '982.766', 'text': 'agreements announced.'}, {'start': '982.900', 'end': '985.300', 'text': 'Then I saw'}, {'start': '985.300', 'end': '986.533', 'text': "Bessant's news that there"}, {'start': '986.533', 'end': '987.666', 'text': 'might be some agreements released soon.'}, {'start': '987.666', 'end': '989.100', 'text': 'So when I got up this morning, I thought,'}, {'start': '989.100', 'end': '989.933', 'text': 'I should quickly find out'}, {'start': '989.933', 'end': '991.566', 'text': 'what the positive factors are today,'}, {'start': '991.766', 'end': '993.600', 'text': 'what tariffs have been preliminarily negotiated,'}, {'start': '993.600', 'end': '995.533', 'text': 'and have been announced, but there is nothing.'}, {'start': '995.533', 'end': '996.300', 'text': 'So I think sometimes'}, {'start': '996.300', 'end': '997.800', 'text': 'the media is very strange.'}, {'start': '997.800', 'end': '999.666', 'text': "Since you have said so much, you actually haven't seen"}, {'start': '999.666', 'end': '1001.566', 'text': 'what is actually released.'}, {'start': '1003.166', 'end': '1005.500', 'text': "So everyone doesn't need to"}, {'start': '1005.500', 'end': '1008.100', 'text': 'change their views immediately because of these news. As for the'}, {'start': '1008.100', 'end': '1011.133', 'text': 'rise and fall of the components of the SNP500 index yesterday, we'}, {'start': '1011.133', 'end': '1011.800', 'text': 'can also see that the'}, {'start': '1011.800', 'end': '1014.300', 'text': 'breadth of the market was relatively poor yesterday,'}, {'start': '1014.300', 'end': '1016.466', 'text': 'including healthcare,'}, {'start': '1016.466', 'end': '1017.900', 'text': 'daily consumer goods,'}, {'start': '1017.900', 'end': '1019.766', 'text': 'basic materials and real estate markets. The'}, {'start': '1019.766', 'end': '1021.400', 'text': 'performance on the left is relatively poor.'}, {'start': '1021.400', 'end': '1022.600', 'text': 'You can even see that the'}, {'start': '1022.600', 'end': '1025.000', 'text': 'performance of essential consumption is also relatively poor.'}, {'start': '1025.000', 'end': '1027.900', 'text': 'Overall, the market is supported by technology giants,'}, {'start': '1029.200', 'end': '1031.466', 'text': 'because META and Microsoft have'}, {'start': '1031.466', 'end': '1033.400', 'text': 'risen by 4%'}, {'start': '1033.400', 'end': '1034.700', 'text': 'and 7% since yesterday.'}, {'start': '1034.700', 'end': '1037.333', 'text': 'Their financial reports are better than market expectations,'}, {'start': '1037.333', 'end': '1038.300', 'text': 'so everyone is quite sensitive'}, {'start': '1038.300', 'end': '1040.166', 'text': 'to the financial reports of other technology giants.'}, {'start': '1042.766', 'end': '1044.766', 'text': 'In addition, Nvidia'}, {'start': '1045.733', 'end': '1046.733', 'text': "'s performance yesterday was"}, {'start': '1046.733', 'end': '1047.600', 'text': 'actually'}, {'start': '1047.600', 'end': '1049.800', 'text': 'up about 5%.'}, {'start': '1049.800', 'end': '1051.600', 'text': 'In addition to the fact that the capital expenditure of technology giants'}, {'start': '1052.566', 'end': '1054.666', 'text': 'is maintained at a certain level, the'}, {'start': '1054.666', 'end': '1057.700', 'text': 'demand for processors is'}, {'start': '1057.700', 'end': '1060.600', 'text': 'also relatively optimistic. That is,'}, {'start': '1060.600', 'end': '1063.600', 'text': "for Nvidia's current AI servers"}, {'start': '1063.666', 'end': '1066.066', 'text': 'or processors,'}, {'start': '1066.066', 'end': '1067.766', 'text': 'its future shipments'}, {'start': '1067.766', 'end': '1071.000', 'text': 'will be facing a better direction.'}, {'start': '1071.066', 'end': '1072.366', 'text': 'Another thing'}, {'start': '1072.366', 'end': '1074.366', 'text': 'is that the United States is considering relaxing the'}, {'start': '1074.366', 'end': '1076.966', 'text': "restrictions on Nvidia's sales to the UAE."}, {'start': '1076.966', 'end': '1078.000', 'text': 'It may be that'}, {'start': '1078.000', 'end': '1080.166', 'text': 'when Trump visits in May, he will start a'}, {'start': '1080.166', 'end': '1083.366', 'text': 'bilateral chip agreement.'}, {'start': '1083.466', 'end': '1085.600', 'text': 'Why did this news come out? The'}, {'start': '1085.600', 'end': '1087.300', 'text': 'first reason is of course that the UAE has been constantly saying that it will invest in the United States'}, {'start': '1087.300', 'end': '1088.966', 'text': 'in the past period of time.'}, {'start': '1091.366', 'end': '1093.166', 'text': 'It announced that it'}, {'start': '1093.166', 'end': '1096.800', 'text': 'will invest up to 1.4 trillion US dollars in the United States in the next ten years. The'}, {'start': '1096.800', 'end': '1098.866', 'text': 'scope covers not only semiconductors,'}, {'start': '1098.866', 'end': '1101.900', 'text': "but also AI infrastructure and energy industries. In addition, Nvidia's"}, {'start': '1102.066', 'end': '1103.500', 'text': 'CEO,'}, {'start': '1103.500', 'end': '1105.533', 'text': 'everyone saw a lot of news yesterday.'}, {'start': '1105.533', 'end': '1107.166', 'text': 'He also publicly called on the government to'}, {'start': '1107.166', 'end': '1108.733', 'text': 'adjust the'}, {'start': '1108.733', 'end': '1110.400', 'text': 'regulations on AI technology exports.'}, {'start': '1110.400', 'end': '1111.166', 'text': 'Otherwise,'}, {'start': '1111.166', 'end': '1112.366', 'text': 'it may cause'}, {'start': '1112.366', 'end': '1115.366', 'text': 'other countries to turn to Chinese technology.'}, {'start': '1115.366', 'end': '1115.866', 'text': 'Recently, there has'}, {'start': '1115.866', 'end': '1117.966', 'text': 'been a lot of news about Huawei. It'}, {'start': '1117.966', 'end': '1118.966', 'text': 'has been said that'}, {'start': '1119.000', 'end': '1119.800', 'text': 'if Huawei'}, {'start': '1119.800', 'end': '1120.766', 'text': "'s chips and"}, {'start': '1120.766', 'end': '1122.666', 'text': '4V devices have a more complete supply chain today,'}, {'start': '1124.533', 'end': '1125.566', 'text': "today's ban"}, {'start': '1125.566', 'end': '1127.300', 'text': 'will give it'}, {'start': '1127.300', 'end': '1130.466', 'text': 'more time to criticize Nvidia. So, starting from 2023, based on the'}, {'start': '1131.100', 'end': '1134.200', 'text': 'needs of national security,'}, {'start': '1134.200', 'end': '1136.333', 'text': 'Nvidia chips exported to the UAE'}, {'start': '1136.333', 'end': '1138.966', 'text': 'will need to obtain a license. The Trump administration may now consider canceling'}, {'start': '1139.566', 'end': '1141.866', 'text': 'this layered system and turning to a more general global licensing system. So Nvidia or Broadcom, some related chip AI chip manufacturers, performed slightly better yesterday. We can pay attention to whether there will be more positive news in the future. But the most important thing'}, {'start': '1155.500', 'end': '1157.933', 'text': 'is the financial report. In fact, there are really a lot of financial reports in the past two days. Yesterday, before the market opened, a company that everyone paid close attention to, Eli Lilly, a'}, {'start': '1160.800', 'end': '1162.800', 'text': 'giant in weight loss drugs, announced their financial report. But'}, {'start': '1162.800', 'end': '1165.066', 'text': 'yesterday you can see that it was very weak at the opening, and it was still going against the enemy at the end of the market. The'}, {'start': '1167.400', 'end': '1170.000', 'text': 'reason is that its revenue and financials are actually better than market expectations. However, the company stated that due to the increase in R&D expenses in'}, {'start': '1171.200', 'end': '1172.466', 'text': 'the future, it has'}, {'start': '1172.466', 'end': '1174.333', 'text': 'lowered its full-year cargo'}, {'start': '1186.966', 'end': '1190.166', 'text': 'forecast and profit forecast. In fact, one possibility is that your R&D expenses have increased. There is no problem with this'}, {'start': '1194.666', 'end': '1196.100', 'text': 'because the company has already talked about it. The'}, {'start': '1196.100', 'end': '1196.733', 'text': 'second possibility is, is it'}, {'start': '1196.733', 'end': '1200.100', 'text': 'possible that it is due to the intensified competitive environment?'}, {'start': '1200.133', 'end': '1202.566', 'text': 'As a result, your market share and'}, {'start': '1202.566', 'end': '1204.400', 'text': 'pricing'}, {'start': '1204.400', 'end': '1206.666', 'text': 'may be negatively affected in the future. When CVS released its financial report'}, {'start': '1206.933', 'end': '1208.333', 'text': 'yesterday,'}, {'start': '1210.333', 'end': '1213.733', 'text': "it actually said that it would remove weight loss drugs, such as Eli Lilly's weight loss drugs, from its preferred drug list. That is, your drug list today may be prioritized for purchase and sales. Just exclude it first. He also said that he would use his rival Novo Nordisk's"}, {'start': '1213.733', 'end': '1215.033', 'text': 'Wegovy weight'}, {'start': '1215.366', 'end': '1216.933', 'text': 'loss drug.'}, {'start': '1216.933', 'end': '1219.400', 'text': 'So if'}, {'start': '1219.400', 'end': '1220.766', 'text': 'you look at it today, I think the competition is'}, {'start': '1220.766', 'end': '1221.966', 'text': 'also a very important reason why the stock price of companies like Eli Lilly is slightly weaker at this'}, {'start': '1221.966', 'end': '1223.566', 'text': 'stage. As for tariffs, Eli Lilly'}, {'start': '1226.333', 'end': '1229.066', 'text': 'also mentioned in its financial teleconference that the'}, {'start': '1230.766', 'end': '1232.033', 'text': 'tariff policy will not have a time value impact on its financial situation in 2025. Because'}, {'start': '1236.266', 'end': '1237.766', 'text': 'Eli Lilly actually has a huge production capacity in the United States, and the plan is to have'}, {'start': '1237.766', 'end': '1240.100', 'text': 'more equipment in the future,'}, {'start': '1242.066', 'end': '1243.700', 'text': 'or increase exports. These'}, {'start': '1245.200', 'end': '1246.700', 'text': 'may all help it to be immune to tariffs. Since last year, the first generation has actually been in a sideways trend. I'}, {'start': '1246.700', 'end': '1247.733', 'text': 'think the weight loss drug issue'}, {'start': '1247.733', 'end': '1251.066', 'text': 'will be in the future.'}, {'start': '1251.966', 'end': '1252.766', 'text': 'Why? Why was it'}, {'start': '1260.933', 'end': '1262.900', 'text': 'able to support the'}, {'start': '1262.900', 'end': '1265.233', 'text': 'fake news in the'}, {'start': '1265.300', 'end': '1266.366', 'text': 'past? The first reason is that the demand is very large. For a long time in the past, it was'}, {'start': '1266.366', 'end': '1268.466', 'text': 'in a shortage situation. However, the shortage began to ease slowly because the supply began to increase. After the production capacity was improved, the supply increased.'}, {'start': '1271.700', 'end': '1272.566', 'text': 'However, when the demand could not be'}, {'start': '1272.566', 'end': '1274.900', 'text': 'further significantly increased, the high valuation could not be sustained. Instead, the valuation was relatively'}, {'start': '1274.900', 'end': '1276.900', 'text': 'weak in this aspect. The CEO of the company actually mentioned in an interview with CNBC that you should enter the market when the stock price falls, and'}, {'start': '1285.766', 'end': '1288.000', 'text': 'then you can enjoy a better profit when the stock price rebounds in the future. At first glance,'}, {'start': '1288.000', 'end': '1289.066', 'text': 'this sentence is'}, {'start': '1289.066', 'end': '1290.466', 'text': 'completely correct, but you have to look at the current stock price of Eli Lilly. What level is it? So you'}, {'start': '1305.800', 'end': '1306.800', 'text': 'can look at Eli Lilly in the past period of time. You can use a 5-year PE ratio to see that my PE ratio is currently at the'}, {'start': '1308.200', 'end': '1310.100', 'text': 'lower edge of the average of the'}, {'start': '1310.766', 'end': '1313.266', 'text': 'past five years. It has even fallen. I think it is certainly possible to make a layout, but if today is in a growth curve and the valuation has not been significantly lowered, I'}, {'start': '1315.266', 'end': '1316.566', 'text': 'think you can'}, {'start': '1317.766', 'end': '1318.900', 'text': 'wait a little longer and see if there is a more attractive price. Let me do'}, {'start': '1324.966', 'end': '1326.766', 'text': 'another'}, {'start': '1327.100', 'end': '1328.733', 'text': 'gold buying. I know'}, {'start': '1328.733', 'end': '1329.700', 'text': 'that everyone is most concerned about technology stocks, including Apple, which I like very much. Yesterday, it also released its financial report. The'}, {'start': '1329.700', 'end': '1332.366', 'text': 'overall financial report is'}, {'start': '1334.166', 'end': '1335.900', 'text': 'actually better than the market expected.'}, {'start': '1336.000', 'end': '1338.133', 'text': 'However, there is one key point. While the ban between China and the United States is intensifying and'}, {'start': '1339.466', 'end': '1341.500', 'text': 'tariffs are increasing significantly, the'}, {'start': '1345.933', 'end': '1347.066', 'text': "sales in the Chinese market are really not as good as the forecast during the analysis. Therefore, Apple's stock price fell by about 4% after the market. We"}, {'start': '1347.333', 'end': '1348.100', 'text': 'can see that'}, {'start': '1349.533', 'end': '1351.500', 'text': 'Apple'}, {'start': '1351.500', 'end': '1353.666', 'text': "'s"}, {'start': '1353.700', 'end': '1354.700', 'text': 'overall revenue in this quarter has grown by about 5%. The iPhone is'}, {'start': '1354.700', 'end': '1357.400', 'text': 'actually better than the market expected,'}, {'start': '1361.000', 'end': '1363.666', 'text': 'growing by 2% compared with the same period last year. If'}, {'start': '1372.600', 'end': '1374.733', 'text': 'we look at the service department today, because we have always said that the service department is a very'}, {'start': '1378.500', 'end': '1380.800', 'text': 'important business for the company to boost profits, the profit margin of hardware and software today is completely different. Hardware may be 30 or 40, which is already very high, but software may be 70 to 80. At'}, {'start': '1383.300', 'end': '1385.200', 'text': 'this point in time, if your software content can be greatly increased and the proportion can be improved, it will also be'}, {'start': '1386.166', 'end': '1388.900', 'text': 'beneficial for Apple to have a significant improvement in its acquisition capabilities. So this service business is actually a little bit worse than expected, and its'}, {'start': '1390.300', 'end': '1393.633', 'text': 'growth has slowed down. In addition, the APP store One of its payment systems has recently faced some regulatory challenges or'}, {'start': '1394.100', 'end': '1396.700', 'text': 'fines. Is it'}, {'start': '1396.700', 'end': '1397.966', 'text': 'possible that it will'}, {'start': '1405.366', 'end': '1406.800', 'text': 'affect future benefits?'}, {'start': '1409.500', 'end': '1412.066', 'text': "This is also a potential risk. But to be honest, the risk of regulation has always existed. So you say this is the most important factor affecting Apple's stock price or its revenue? I think it is not."}, {'start': '1414.533', 'end': '1416.300', 'text': 'In fact, the most important thing is its AI. Its AI cannot be well introduced'}, {'start': '1416.300', 'end': '1417.733', 'text': 'and popularized.'}, {'start': '1420.266', 'end': '1422.500', 'text': 'In the past, the market was skeptical about its catalyst'}, {'start': '1422.666', 'end': '1424.133', 'text': 'or its potential'}, {'start': '1424.133', 'end': '1426.200', 'text': "future growth. Now let's take a look at Apple's"}, {'start': '1426.200', 'end': '1428.100', 'text': 'performance in the Chinese market. Its performance in the Chinese market is actually a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, which is significantly lower than'}, {'start': '1429.300', 'end': '1431.566', 'text': "analysts' expectations."}, {'start': '1431.566', 'end': '1433.700', 'text': 'So why did its'}, {'start': '1434.900', 'end': '1436.333', 'text': 'revenue slow'}, {'start': '1443.500', 'end': '1444.700', 'text': 'down? Of course, it is because local brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and vivo have continued to increase their'}, {'start': '1444.700', 'end': '1447.266', 'text': 'market share. The reason for going to them at this time is that they have already focused on AI on their mobile phones. So today, in addition to your'}, {'start': '1447.266', 'end': '1449.500', 'text': 'popularity in AI, will the Chinese'}, {'start': '1452.400', 'end': '1454.600', 'text': 'government have a'}, {'start': '1458.133', 'end': '1460.766', 'text': 'relatively large impact on foreign technology products in the future? Well, what is this called'}, {'start': '1462.766', 'end': '1464.566', 'text': 'a ban or'}, {'start': '1464.566', 'end': '1467.700', 'text': 'some um, anyway, it means to subsidize domestic manufacturers. So the tariff issue is'}, {'start': '1467.700', 'end': '1469.633', 'text': 'actually a very important'}, {'start': '1469.866', 'end': '1471.366', 'text': 'issue for Apple at this'}, {'start': '1471.366', 'end': '1473.166', 'text': 'stage. In addition to the possibility of facing some regulation, the company heard from Cook that the tariff issue may increase costs by $900 million this quarter. So the company estimates that the revenue for the'}, {'start': '1475.200', 'end': '1476.500', 'text': 'next quarter'}, {'start': '1481.766', 'end': '1484.300', 'text': 'will be a single-digit to mid-single-digit growth. I think that although he bravely gave the revenue'}, {'start': '1487.400', 'end': '1491.033', 'text': 'guidance for the next quarter, I think it is'}, {'start': '1491.400', 'end': '1493.500', 'text': 'indeed not very satisfactory to everyone. It doesn’t matter if you are not satisfied because'}, {'start': '1496.066', 'end': '1498.066', 'text': 'Apple has plenty of money.'}, {'start': '1501.533', 'end': '1504.466', 'text': 'So he also announced a $'}, {'start': '1507.100', 'end': '1509.833', 'text': '100 billion stock repurchase plan and increased the quarterly share price by 4% to $0.26 per share. For long-term investors, this is actually a stabilizing effect'}, {'start': '1509.933', 'end': '1511.866', 'text': 'because the repurchase plan can boost earnings per share. The quarterly dividend can give you more money to put in your pocket. However, when we look at technology stocks, we'}, {'start': '1512.966', 'end': '1514.533', 'text': 'mainly look at'}, {'start': '1514.533', 'end': '1516.366', 'text': 'growth. Today,'}, {'start': '1525.166', 'end': '1527.866', 'text': "you cannot have good growth. In addition, the impact of tariffs, so there is no way to drive Apple's rebound during this period. It can continue after the financial report. After the financial report, you can see that its"}, {'start': '1528.300', 'end': '1530.500', 'text': 'stock'}, {'start': '1532.266', 'end': '1536.666', 'text': 'price has retested its monthly support. I think here, if you are a'}, {'start': '1536.700', 'end': '1538.266', 'text': "long-term investor, but let's wait a minute. You can look at Apple's current"}, {'start': '1542.866', 'end': '1544.566', 'text': 'valuation.'}, {'start': '1547.166', 'end': '1549.400', 'text': 'However, if we look at it from a technical perspective'}, {'start': '1551.100', 'end': '1553.400', 'text': 'today, it is true that'}, {'start': '1556.866', 'end': '1558.866', 'text': "it has not reversed its current weak position. As long as it does not break the bottom and there is a consolidation here, I think there is still a chance to return to glory. It just takes time to brew. Well, let's look at Amazon"}, {'start': '1558.866', 'end': '1561.133', 'text': "'s"}, {'start': '1561.133', 'end': '1562.900', 'text': 'financial report next. Amazon is actually the same as Apple. It is also at the forefront of'}, {'start': '1562.900', 'end': '1563.600', 'text': 'tariffs. But this time, the market'}, {'start': '1564.666', 'end': '1567.166', 'text': "estimates and expects that in addition to the impact of tariffs, Amazon's AI and AWS can also have significant growth. Just like Google and Microsoft, which we"}, {'start': '1575.733', 'end': '1578.500', 'text': 'talked about before,'}, {'start': '1578.500', 'end': '1579.933', 'text': 'they can have a good year-on-year revenue growth'}, {'start': '1579.933', 'end': '1581.566', 'text': 'rate. What about the revenue in the most recent quarter? In fact, the revenue increased by 9% year-on-year to US$155.7 billion. If'}, {'start': '1589.766', 'end': '1591.800', 'text': 'you look at it, its net profit in this quarter'}, {'start': '1591.800', 'end': '1593.333', 'text': 'actually grew significantly, so it is also higher than the'}, {'start': '1598.533', 'end': '1600.900', 'text': "market's expectations. In addition to the retail we see, it is"}, {'start': '1600.900', 'end': '1602.766', 'text': 'actually still stable, that is, the growth of maintenance services, such as'}, {'start': '1604.966', 'end': '1606.000', 'text': 'AWS cloud service revenue, which'}, {'start': '1606.000', 'end': '1609.400', 'text': 'has an annual growth of 17%.'}, {'start': '1611.266', 'end': '1613.366', 'text': 'We have talked about the advertising business before. The advertising'}, {'start': '1613.366', 'end': '1615.166', 'text': 'business is actually also very strong for Amazon at this stage. It is an important area of'}, {'start': '1615.166', 'end': '1616.366', 'text': 'rapid growth, with an'}, {'start': '1618.133', 'end': '1622.900', 'text': 'annual growth of 19%. However,'}, {'start': '1623.133', 'end': '1624.100', 'text': 'if you look at the operating profit today, the'}, {'start': '1624.100', 'end': '1625.333', 'text': 'operating profit this time is'}, {'start': '1625.333', 'end': '1627.166', 'text': 'actually slightly'}, {'start': '1627.166', 'end': '1629.700', 'text': 'lower than market expectations. Could it be due to the trade war? Or at this stage, Amazon is'}, {'start': '1631.933', 'end': '1633.066', 'text': "still spending on the overall situation, so its profitability is slightly suppressed. Well, let's just appreciate the fake"}, {'start': '1639.600', 'end': '1641.400', 'text': 'show. In the conference call, he put forward his views on tariffs. He believes that at'}, {'start': '1641.933', 'end': '1644.066', 'text': 'this stage, it mainly reflects the effect of pre-ordering,'}, {'start': '1644.066', 'end': '1646.600', 'text': 'and there is no significant'}, {'start': '1646.666', 'end': '1648.566', 'text': 'increase in prices.'}, {'start': '1649.266', 'end': '1651.400', 'text': 'If the cost rises in the future, it is'}, {'start': '1655.166', 'end': '1656.866', 'text': 'because consumers have already bought things, which may cause the'}, {'start': '1657.866', 'end': '1659.900', 'text': "withdrawal of overall consumer spending. But at least we haven't seen it"}, {'start': '1659.900', 'end': '1662.000', 'text': 'this quarter. Hey, this reminds me of something mentioned'}, {'start': '1665.933', 'end': '1667.166', 'text': "in Apple's financial report. Apple's Cook"}, {'start': '1667.166', 'end': '1669.466', 'text': 'mentioned that everyone said that the'}, {'start': '1677.266', 'end': '1679.366', 'text': "previous increase in tariffs would cause everyone to rush to buy Apple, but in fact, we didn't see such a phenomenon in the last quarter. That is, the news we saw actually told us that"}, {'start': '1679.366', 'end': '1681.466', 'text': 'many people went to Apple stores to buy them,'}, {'start': '1684.933', 'end': '1686.166', 'text': 'but at least from the data,'}, {'start': '1686.166', 'end': '1687.500', 'text': "we haven't seen a very obvious situation that really caused a rush to buy."}, {'start': '1687.500', 'end': '1687.733', 'text': 'Well, of course, the AI \u200b\u200bbusiness is also very important. For example, Jassy'}, {'start': '1687.733', 'end': '1689.900', 'text': 'in AWS'}, {'start': '1689.900', 'end': '1691.633', 'text': "actually mentioned that Amazon's AI business has now reached a scale of billions of dollars. With the rapid"}, {'start': '1694.566', 'end': '1696.766', 'text': 'increase in demand for cloud infrastructure, Amazon is also'}, {'start': '1696.766', 'end': '1698.066', 'text': 'investing in AI Amazon is going to make more active investments in this field. It is also going to launch its'}, {'start': '1701.500', 'end': '1702.966', 'text': 'new'}, {'start': '1703.900', 'end': '1706.000', 'text': 'AI chip. It has already started to deploy it in large quantities. Compared with other'}, {'start': '1706.000', 'end': '1708.666', 'text': 'GPUs, it provides'}, {'start': '1708.666', 'end': '1710.733', 'text': 'a 30%-40% better'}, {'start': '1710.733', 'end': '1713.266', 'text': 'price-performance ratio. So if you'}, {'start': '1719.500', 'end': '1721.800', 'text': "look at Amazon's stock price or the current"}, {'start': '1724.900', 'end': '1727.766', 'text': 'fundamentals of Amazon, in fact, from a long-term perspective, in this industry, the future demand is still'}, {'start': '1728.766', 'end': '1730.933', 'text': 'relatively large. Jassy has emphasized that currently, about 85% of global IT spending is still on-site, not locally, and not'}, {'start': '1734.500', 'end': '1736.833', 'text': 'deployed in the cloud. This means that in the next 10-20 years, the'}, {'start': '1744.000', 'end': '1745.966', 'text': 'demand for this transformation'}, {'start': '1745.966', 'end': '1748.166', 'text': 'or the demand for cloud computing may become larger and grow faster after the acceleration of AI. The reason why AWS is currently growing at a relatively low rate is that we'}, {'start': '1748.900', 'end': '1752.000', 'text': 'have actually been talking about AWS cloud business for a long time. Its current'}, {'start': '1753.500', 'end': '1755.833', 'text': 'annualized revenue has reached 115 billion US dollars, and its scale is already very large. So if it is so large today, it'}, {'start': '1755.866', 'end': '1756.933', 'text': 'is reasonable for your revenue growth to slow down.'}, {'start': '1765.666', 'end': '1767.866', 'text': "It's just whether you can continue. When will"}, {'start': '1767.866', 'end': '1769.600', 'text': 'this trend be reversed?'}, {'start': '1771.400', 'end': '1773.533', 'text': 'That'}, {'start': '1773.533', 'end': '1774.900', 'text': 'will be a very important key to the stock'}, {'start': '1774.900', 'end': '1776.700', 'text': 'price. So, we can also take a look at winwinGPT. It has not been used'}, {'start': '1777.400', 'end': '1779.466', 'text': 'today.'}, {'start': '1779.466', 'end': '1779.933', 'text': 'Because'}, {'start': '1779.933', 'end': '1782.400', 'text': 'I originally wanted to say that if we use winwinGPT, we should not only look at the past revenue performance every time, but also look at its'}, {'start': '1784.166', 'end': '1785.400', 'text': "future prospects. So when you type in Mr. M's latest financial report on Amazon, he will also tell you the current"}, {'start': '1791.666', 'end': '1793.333', 'text': 'revenue situation and his future vision. This is what'}, {'start': '1802.566', 'end': '1804.933', 'text': 'we just talked about. Today, AWS is a business. If it can reach a revenue scale of hundreds of billions of dollars,'}, {'start': '1812.666', 'end': '1813.933', 'text': "does it mean that the company's leading position in the cloud business and the cloud field can actually be more solid, that is, its competitive advantage and higher. In addition to its business, AWS, you said that in the satellite business and in the AI \u200b\u200bassistant, can it provide better software and hardware integration"}, {'start': '1813.933', 'end': '1816.133', 'text': 'in the future? Since you have a large language model, how do you apply it? In fact, the application in the'}, {'start': '1820.900', 'end': '1823.466', 'text': 'future is a key point of monetization. So'}, {'start': '1823.466', 'end': '1825.300', 'text': "what is the difference between the analyst's target price and the current stock price of the company? If you are not"}, {'start': '1825.300', 'end': '1827.133', 'text': 'familiar with'}, {'start': '1827.133', 'end': '1828.933', 'text': 'Amazon today, I know that everyone is'}, {'start': '1837.666', 'end': '1838.700', 'text': 'familiar with it. You'}, {'start': '1838.700', 'end': '1840.566', 'text': 'can also use'}, {'start': '1845.800', 'end': '1847.266', 'text': 'it on other companies. You can think about what the current growth momentum of the company is. So you can type in the name of the company and then add the future growth momentum. I will tell you the rest and'}, {'start': '1847.266', 'end': '1849.100', 'text': 'help you list it. Then you look at them one by one, and see if they are'}, {'start': '1851.300', 'end': '1852.300', 'text': 'consistent with what you think. For example, e-commerce and logistics, logistics infrastructure.'}, {'start': '1863.800', 'end': '1866.000', 'text': 'Today, e-commerce itself is an industry with very low profit margins. If you'}, {'start': '1866.000', 'end': '1867.000', 'text': 'look at Costco, Walmart, Target and'}, {'start': '1867.000', 'end': '1869.133', 'text': 'other American retailers, they are actually very strict in terms of gross profit margins. So how do you win over your competitors'}, {'start': '1870.200', 'end': '1872.400', 'text': 'today? It depends on your cost control ability. For example, why can the number of exams grow so much? It is because'}, {'start': '1872.400', 'end': '1874.166', 'text': 'you don’t have to pay membership'}, {'start': '1874.166', 'end': '1876.466', 'text': 'fees on Amazon today. You'}, {'start': '1879.666', 'end': '1882.133', 'text': 'don’t have to pay membership fees when you go to'}, {'start': '1883.166', 'end': '1884.900', 'text': 'Walmart or'}, {'start': '1884.900', 'end': '1886.500', 'text': 'Target'}, {'start': '1886.566', 'end': '1887.666', 'text': 'today. But when you go to Costco, you have to pay membership fees first.'}, {'start': '1887.666', 'end': '1890.000', 'text': 'This membership fee is actually a very important source of profit. For'}, {'start': '1890.000', 'end': '1892.200', 'text': 'Costco, this is'}, {'start': '1894.400', 'end': '1896.500', 'text': 'actually a zero-cost one.'}, {'start': '1899.400', 'end': '1901.666', 'text': 'Today, I just want to gather more members, and then negotiate with suppliers to give customers lower prices to buy better things. That'}, {'start': '1901.666', 'end': '1904.166', 'text': 'is the key to improving customer loyalty.'}, {'start': '1904.166', 'end': '1904.966', 'text': 'But what is the focus of'}, {'start': '1906.266', 'end': '1908.366', 'text': 'Amazon? This year, I used to have 24-hour'}, {'start': '1908.366', 'end': '1910.066', 'text': 'delivery, fast delivery, and even my prime membership. When I can enjoy more benefits, are there more people joining the'}, {'start': '1911.000', 'end': '1913.566', 'text': 'club? What will happen after you join today? How do'}, {'start': '1913.566', 'end': '1915.900', 'text': 'you improve member loyalty? Is that your logistics'}, {'start': '1917.700', 'end': '1919.366', 'text': 'infrastructure? How do'}, {'start': '1922.000', 'end': '1922.900', 'text': 'you arrange logistics infrastructure, or even have a lot of automation, construction and investment in it, to show that you'}, {'start': '1922.900', 'end': '1924.466', 'text': 'can'}, {'start': '1926.100', 'end': '1929.266', 'text': 'have a better development in the retail sector? The next one is of course cloud computing. You can see'}, {'start': '1932.466', 'end': '1934.300', 'text': 'that'}, {'start': '1934.300', 'end': '1936.466', 'text': 'at present, Amazon is a very important source of revenue and cargo. As enterprises and governments'}, {'start': '1936.466', 'end': '1937.333', 'text': 'gradually move their IT infrastructure to the cloud, AWS has a'}, {'start': '1938.400', 'end': '1940.933', 'text': 'stronger growth potential in the future. As we just talked about, the two are actually quite compatible. Are there any emerging technologies and innovations? For example, automated voice assistants, which are actually'}, {'start': '1945.133', 'end': '1947.666', 'text': 'consistent with what we just talked about. So these things can actually be compared with your original'}, {'start': '1950.666', 'end': '1952.566', 'text': 'subjective views'}, {'start': '1952.566', 'end': '1953.500', 'text': 'or the data you have'}, {'start': '1956.666', 'end': '1958.166', 'text': 'collected. If you still don’t know what you want to say today, then I want to find its competitors today. Is there'}, {'start': '1958.166', 'end': '1959.766', 'text': 'any possibility of'}, {'start': '1959.900', 'end': '1961.300', 'text': 'surpassing Amazon? Then'}, {'start': '1961.300', 'end': '1963.000', 'text': 'you can find out who'}, {'start': '1963.000', 'end': '1964.333', 'text': 'Amazon’s competitors are. They can help you analyze. In fact, Amazon has many'}, {'start': '1966.900', 'end': '1969.366', 'text': 'businesses, so they will help you list them according to different businesses. For example, Amazon’s cloud services, Microsoft and Google’s GCP are currently its'}, {'start': '1976.266', 'end': '1978.466', 'text': 'main and large-scale cloud services at this stage. A giant service'}, {'start': '1980.700', 'end': '1982.966', 'text': 'provider. In the field of e-commerce, he will also help you look at traditional large retailers, such as Warmer Target,'}, {'start': '1982.966', 'end': '1983.300', 'text': 'which is'}, {'start': '1983.300', 'end': '1985.500', 'text': 'actually their online business. And'}, {'start': '1985.566', 'end': '1986.766', 'text': 'it has evolved from traditional electronic and traditional physical e-commerce to the current online sales. There are also some companies that are'}, {'start': '1996.900', 'end': '1999.200', 'text': 'originally based on business e-commerce platforms, such as Ibey and Shopify. How do you benchmark with these companies'}, {'start': '2003.000', 'end': '2003.866', 'text': 'and compare their profitability and valuation to show that you can judge whether'}, {'start': '2003.866', 'end': '2005.766', 'text': 'Amazon is still in a leading position in the'}, {'start': '2005.766', 'end': '2007.766', 'text': "industry. In addition, we just talked about Amazon's streaming. Today, as a Pro member, I can also enjoy"}, {'start': '2009.166', 'end': '2011.333', 'text': 'streaming services and fast delivery. Even in the future, when it promotes'}, {'start': '2014.566', 'end': '2017.000', 'text': 'more subscription'}, {'start': '2017.500', 'end': '2018.866', 'text': 'services, who are its competitors?'}, {'start': '2020.366', 'end': '2022.866', 'text': 'He also mentioned Netflix or Disney'}, {'start': '2023.533', 'end': '2025.933', 'text': "plus, which are actually its competitors. Even YouTube is actually attracting customers' attention. The more customers you can get today, the better your advertising revenue will be in the future."}, {'start': '2032.400', 'end': '2033.366', 'text': 'I forgot to mention one thing just now, which'}, {'start': '2033.366', 'end': '2035.733', 'text': "is Amazon's corporate advertising business."}, {'start': '2035.733', 'end': '2038.533', 'text': 'In addition to attracting other advertisers today, this year, I am on my e-commerce platform. My third-party sellers, if'}, {'start': '2038.533', 'end': '2040.133', 'text': 'he wants to attract more'}, {'start': '2042.100', 'end': '2044.800', 'text': 'buyers, When increasing the conversion rate, it will also place advertisements on the Amazon platform, so this is also very important. In addition, there are artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, including Microsoft, Google, IBM, and professional AI startups. How'}, {'start': '2044.900', 'end': '2046.333', 'text': 'do you analyze from all aspects, including price, performance, product features, multi-cloud'}, {'start': '2056.166', 'end': '2057.700', 'text': 'availability, and customer'}, {'start': '2059.000', 'end': '2061.466', 'text': 'conversion capabilities? What kind of differentiation do you use with'}, {'start': '2061.466', 'end': '2063.666', 'text': 'your competitors'}, {'start': '2071.933', 'end': '2074.800', 'text': 'today? You can further ask them. So I think the advantage of Weiwei GPT is that'}, {'start': '2076.100', 'end': '2077.766', 'text': 'sometimes it is not just financial reports. It'}, {'start': '2077.766', 'end': '2079.566', 'text': 'can help you understand the'}, {'start': '2080.500', 'end': '2082.866', 'text': "company's current competitive moat and its competitive environment. This is also a major factor that I have shared with you in the past few days."}, {'start': '2082.866', 'end': '2083.300', 'text': 'Although it is a cooperation, it is really actually used, and then I'}, {'start': '2083.300', 'end': '2085.900', 'text': 'recommend it to everyone. If you are interested, you can just register as a member and play around, and then see if it meets your needs. I think this financial report is quite suitable for an analysis and reference. Well, today is Dubai. We still talked about a lot'}, {'start': '2093.300', 'end': '2095.266', 'text': 'of hard things, but I think it is still useful for'}, {'start': '2110.966', 'end': '2112.700', 'text': 'everyone, because I think understanding the business world In fact, for your work, for your life, when you are getting married, buying a house or a car, it is actually'}, {'start': '2117.900', 'end': '2120.166', 'text': 'an investment in your life. So, the more'}, {'start': '2120.166', 'end': '2120.600', 'text': 'you understand the logic and thinking of this kind of business, the better your ability will be'}, {'start': '2123.066', 'end': '2125.500', 'text': 'when making any decision, and you'}, {'start': '2129.666', 'end': '2131.700', 'text': 'can analyze it calmly. Well, if you have any questions, please tell me in the comments. We can share them with you in the next video. If you want to know more about the column'}, {'start': '2131.700', 'end': '2133.333', 'text': 'analysis articles'}, {'start': '2133.333', 'end': '2135.333', 'text': 'or the analysis of the market situation, you are'}, {'start': '2135.333', 'end': '2136.866', 'text': 'also welcome to visit my column. My column will have more detailed'}, {'start': '2136.866', 'end': '2138.400', 'text': "sharing. That's all for"}, {'start': '2143.700', 'end': '2145.200', 'text': 'today. I wish you all a happy'}, {'start': '2146.533', 'end': '2148.100', 'text': 'weekend.'}, {'start': '2148.566', 'end': '2150.200', 'text': 'Bye.'}]