川普最怕的来了，2025房产风暴，住房投资暴跌10倍！未来3个月全是雷，4大危机要小心！ 美国股市 美国关税 美国国债 美国房价 房产投资 资产配置 房贷利率 建材价格 风险管理 李文勍Richard
李文勍Richard
[{'start': '0.000', 'end': '1.400', 'text': 'I never expected that the'}, {'start': '1.400', 'end': '4.200', 'text': 'US GDP would drop by 0.3%. The'}, {'start': '4.200', 'end': '6.466', 'text': 'real estate market is even worse.'}, {'start': '6.466', 'end': '8.433', 'text': 'Investment has shrunk by 10 times.'}, {'start': '8.433', 'end': '9.233', 'text': 'Some viewers said that'}, {'start': '9.233', 'end': '10.333', 'text': 'this is just the beginning. The'}, {'start': '10.333', 'end': '13.633', 'text': 'next three months will be a more severe real estate crisis.'}, {'start': '13.700', 'end': '14.700', 'text': 'Some viewers also said that they should'}, {'start': '14.700', 'end': '16.866', 'text': 'wait for the housing prices to plummet and pick up bargains. The'}, {'start': '16.866', 'end': '19.266', 'text': 'decline in GDP is a warning.'}, {'start': '19.266', 'end': '20.666', 'text': 'So in the next three months,'}, {'start': '20.666', 'end': '23.533', 'text': 'what are the risks of buying a house and investing in renovation?'}, {'start': '23.533', 'end': '24.866', 'text': 'You must be careful.'}, {'start': '24.900', 'end': '27.000', 'text': "What opportunities do you want to seize? Let's talk"}, {'start': '27.000', 'end': '28.100', 'text': 'while walking and'}, {'start': '28.100', 'end': '30.533', 'text': 'see how the renovated houses of the rich people on the beach are.'}, {'start': '33.133', 'end': '34.933', 'text': "Let's first talk about the"}, {'start': '34.933', 'end': '36.800', 'text': 'bad news about US real estate in the next 100 days,'}, {'start': '36.800', 'end': '38.200', 'text': 'and then talk about the good news. It is'}, {'start': '38.266', 'end': '40.233', 'text': 'recommended that you master both aspects, so that you'}, {'start': '40.233', 'end': '42.733', 'text': 'will have a more comprehensive grasp of your investment and financial management.'}, {'start': '42.866', 'end': '43.700', 'text': 'Before we start,'}, {'start': '43.700', 'end': '45.733', 'text': 'please give a like to the program. Your'}, {'start': '45.733', 'end': '46.433', 'text': 'like'}, {'start': '46.433', 'end': '49.033', 'text': "is the biggest motivation for me to continue sharing the program. Okay, let's move"}, {'start': '49.266', 'end': '50.333', 'text': "on. Let's"}, {'start': '50.333', 'end': '51.466', 'text': 'talk about the bad news first.'}, {'start': '52.633', 'end': '53.866', 'text': 'You can also look at this bad news from the other side. It'}, {'start': '53.866', 'end': '56.333', 'text': 'helps us to control risks, that is, to be able to'}, {'start': '56.333', 'end': '58.300', 'text': 'prepare in advance,'}, {'start': '58.400', 'end': '59.633', 'text': 'and even shield risks.'}, {'start': '59.633', 'end': '61.266', 'text': 'Then you will make a profit.'}, {'start': '61.466', 'end': '62.066', 'text': 'So first, let'}, {'start': '62.066', 'end': '62.866', 'text': 'me talk about some feedback from'}, {'start': '62.866', 'end': '64.800', 'text': 'my project manager on the construction site.'}, {'start': '66.066', 'end': '67.233', 'text': 'With the trade war, the'}, {'start': '67.233', 'end': '69.266', 'text': 'impact on the cost of housing equipment'}, {'start': '69.266', 'end': '70.866', 'text': 'has gradually emerged.'}, {'start': '70.866', 'end': '71.900', 'text': 'I will give some examples.'}, {'start': '71.900', 'end': '72.700', 'text': 'You have to listen carefully.'}, {'start': '72.700', 'end': '75.833', 'text': 'For example, if you have an air conditioning and heating system in your home'}, {'start': '75.833', 'end': '77.866', 'text': 'Circuit control system water heaters,'}, {'start': '77.866', 'end': '80.066', 'text': 'including electronically controlled boilers like this one.'}, {'start': '80.233', 'end': '82.933', 'text': 'If they are nearing the end of their service life'}, {'start': '82.933', 'end': '84.533', 'text': 'or even exceeding the warranty period,'}, {'start': '84.600', 'end': '86.333', 'text': 'then you should pay attention.'}, {'start': '86.466', 'end': '87.033', 'text': 'For example, in this round,'}, {'start': '87.033', 'end': '90.500', 'text': 'we saw that the US GDP fell by 0.3%.'}, {'start': '90.500', 'end': '92.533', 'text': 'So this is a very important factor.'}, {'start': '92.533', 'end': '94.133', 'text': 'In fact, American merchants'}, {'start': '94.200', 'end': '98.100', 'text': 'want to purchase a large amount of real estate equipment before the tariffs are implemented, which'}, {'start': '99.900', 'end': '101.433', 'text': 'leads to an increase in'}, {'start': '101.433', 'end': '103.300', 'text': 'imports. Once the import gap widens,'}, {'start': '103.300', 'end': '104.833', 'text': 'the GDP data'}, {'start': '104.833', 'end': '105.933', 'text': 'will be particularly ugly.'}, {'start': '106.100', 'end': '108.733', 'text': 'In fact, from the perspective of builders and developers,'}, {'start': '108.733', 'end': '111.633', 'text': 'this is a consequence of the impact of the trade war.'}, {'start': '111.700', 'end': '113.466', 'text': 'As one viewer left a message,'}, {'start': '113.466', 'end': '116.666', 'text': 'he was also very worried about the price increase of these equipment. He was very'}, {'start': '116.666', 'end': '117.666', 'text': 'conflicted about whether to replace the'}, {'start': '117.666', 'end': '119.600', 'text': 'air conditioner in the house'}, {'start': '119.600', 'end': '121.333', 'text': 'to see if it can still be used for 2 years. If'}, {'start': '121.333', 'end': '123.100', 'text': 'he really wants to replace it after 2 years,'}, {'start': '123.100', 'end': '125.033', 'text': 'will it be more expensive after 2 years? So for'}, {'start': '125.033', 'end': '125.933', 'text': 'this kind of real estate-related equipment that'}, {'start': '125.933', 'end': '127.633', 'text': 'I just listed for you,'}, {'start': '130.800', 'end': '132.233', 'text': "if you can't guarantee"}, {'start': '132.233', 'end': '134.700', 'text': 'whether it can really last for two years,'}, {'start': '134.700', 'end': '136.200', 'text': 'then please remember this.'}, {'start': '136.300', 'end': '137.533', 'text': 'You see, the builders'}, {'start': '137.533', 'end': '139.866', 'text': 'are hoarding like crazy.'}, {'start': '140.000', 'end': '142.200', 'text': 'Those capitalists are foresighted.'}, {'start': '142.400', 'end': '143.100', 'text': 'So now,'}, {'start': '143.100', 'end': '144.800', 'text': 'you can still buy good quality and low-cost products,'}, {'start': '144.800', 'end': '146.600', 'text': 'such as this air conditioning unit.'}, {'start': '146.600', 'end': '148.833', 'text': 'These electromechanical equipment are used in the house.'}, {'start': '148.933', 'end': '150.433', 'text': 'If it is two years later,'}, {'start': '150.433', 'end': '152.066', 'text': 'then you may really see that,'}, {'start': '152.066', 'end': '154.666', 'text': 'assuming that the products are made in the United States,'}, {'start': '154.933', 'end': '157.333', 'text': 'I have also discussed with the project manager on my construction site.'}, {'start': '157.333', 'end': '159.100', 'text': 'If all are made in the United States,'}, {'start': '159.100', 'end': '160.600', 'text': 'how much money will be increased?'}, {'start': '160.600', 'end': '163.066', 'text': 'The white uncle told me that it is at least 1/4.'}, {'start': '163.066', 'end': '166.466', 'text': 'He roughly estimated it based on his own time and materials.'}, {'start': '167.600', 'end': '168.000', 'text': 'So,'}, {'start': '168.000', 'end': '170.800', 'text': 'I am not suggesting that you go and buy now,'}, {'start': '170.800', 'end': '172.600', 'text': 'but you should weigh it yourself first.'}, {'start': '172.666', 'end': '175.233', 'text': 'If you have big and expensive items like this, then the'}, {'start': '175.233', 'end': '177.400', 'text': 'air-conditioning outdoor compressor unit must be very expensive. Some'}, {'start': '177.433', 'end': '178.500', 'text': 'have heat pump systems,'}, {'start': '178.500', 'end': '180.333', 'text': 'or heater units. In'}, {'start': '180.333', 'end': '181.600', 'text': "case you can't repair them, it will"}, {'start': '181.600', 'end': '183.400', 'text': 'definitely be more expensive than it is now.'}, {'start': '183.400', 'end': '184.633', 'text': 'So, as we discussed above, the'}, {'start': '184.633', 'end': '187.933', 'text': 'various real estate-related equipment may increase in price. They are all'}, {'start': '187.933', 'end': '188.933', 'text': 'relatively specific,'}, {'start': '189.266', 'end': '191.266', 'text': 'but some viewers are worried about'}, {'start': '195.333', 'end': '198.000', 'text': 'how much the price will increase for the renovation of the old house. At the'}, {'start': '200.800', 'end': '201.933', 'text': 'beginning of this month,'}, {'start': '201.933', 'end': '204.300', 'text': 'many friends who plan to buy old houses,'}, {'start': '204.300', 'end': '205.033', 'text': 'old urban areas, and'}, {'start': '205.033', 'end': '207.400', 'text': 'second-hand houses came to me for real estate consultation'}, {'start': '207.400', 'end': '208.400', 'text': 'and asked me specifically, "'}, {'start': '208.400', 'end': '210.233', 'text': 'I am targeting that house. It has a'}, {'start': '210.233', 'end': '211.266', 'text': 'large area,'}, {'start': '211.266', 'end': '212.733', 'text': "but I really can't stand the"}, {'start': '212.733', 'end': '214.033', 'text': 'equipment and decoration style in that old house.'}, {'start': '215.066', 'end': '216.833', 'text': 'I will definitely renovate it when I move in."'}, {'start': '216.833', 'end': '218.033', 'text': 'But they are also worried about'}, {'start': '218.033', 'end': '221.033', 'text': 'whether the renovation will become more and more expensive,'}, {'start': '221.033', 'end': '222.033', 'text': 'because for old houses,'}, {'start': '222.033', 'end': '223.600', 'text': 'in addition to the surface decoration materials,'}, {'start': '223.600', 'end': '225.066', 'text': 'wires and pipes,'}, {'start': '225.066', 'end': '228.200', 'text': 'MEP, etc., many of them may have to be replaced.'}, {'start': '228.300', 'end': '229.033', 'text': 'Of course,'}, {'start': '229.033', 'end': '229.900', 'text': 'among them,'}, {'start': '229.900', 'end': '231.833', 'text': 'some of them can be replaced by you, while some of them'}, {'start': '233.066', 'end': '235.000', 'text': 'may not be available for a while. Let'}, {'start': '235.000', 'end': '236.266', 'text': 'me give you an example.'}, {'start': '236.400', 'end': '238.733', 'text': 'Friends who have old houses ready to be replaced must pay attention.'}, {'start': '238.733', 'end': '242.433', 'text': 'That is, we talked about the repair of the roof of the old house in the previous issue.'}, {'start': '242.600', 'end': '244.733', 'text': 'Then many friends also hope to have a'}, {'start': '244.800', 'end': '247.733', 'text': 'demonstration of replacing the doors and windows of the old house. Many friends in the'}, {'start': '247.833', 'end': '249.400', 'text': 'Northeast Great Lakes and the'}, {'start': '249.400', 'end': '250.833', 'text': 'surrounding California have'}, {'start': '250.833', 'end': '253.066', 'text': 'responded very enthusiastically. I want to'}, {'start': '253.066', 'end': '255.066', 'text': 'make such a professional explanation video.'}, {'start': '255.066', 'end': '255.633', 'text': 'So I'}, {'start': '255.633', 'end': '257.233', 'text': 'want to tell you how'}, {'start': '257.233', 'end': '258.933', 'text': 'most friends live in their own homes.'}, {'start': '259.733', 'end': '262.033', 'text': 'So I want to buy a batch of new doors and windows,'}, {'start': '262.033', 'end': '263.700', 'text': 'including various hardware accessories.'}, {'start': '263.800', 'end': '266.133', 'text': 'But now for this batch of goods,'}, {'start': '266.133', 'end': '269.533', 'text': 'all kinds of door and window accessories have been agreed with the contractor, and the'}, {'start': '269.533', 'end': '271.400', 'text': 'logistics and delivery orders have been completed,'}, {'start': '271.400', 'end': '272.600', 'text': 'but it is stuck. The'}, {'start': '272.600', 'end': '273.200', 'text': 'reason is the same'}, {'start': '273.200', 'end': '275.700', 'text': 'as the big developer and'}, {'start': '275.700', 'end': '277.433', 'text': 'builder mentioned above. They want to stock up a lot of'}, {'start': '277.433', 'end': '278.133', 'text': 'mechanical and electrical equipment and air'}, {'start': '278.133', 'end': '279.466', 'text': 'conditioners.'}, {'start': '279.500', 'end': '280.400', 'text': 'Because these doors and windows,'}, {'start': '280.400', 'end': '281.533', 'text': 'this profile processing,'}, {'start': '281.533', 'end': '283.266', 'text': "some may be shipped to the United States.  I'll"}, {'start': '283.266', 'end': '284.300', 'text': 'assemble it for you,'}, {'start': '284.300', 'end': '286.133', 'text': 'but the materials may be dropped in Southeast Asia.'}, {'start': '286.266', 'end': '288.733', 'text': "I've measured all the window holes, and I'm"}, {'start': '288.733', 'end': '291.100', 'text': 'just waiting to start shooting.'}, {'start': '291.233', 'end': '293.200', 'text': "But my goods haven't arrived yet. Don't"}, {'start': '293.200', 'end': '294.300', 'text': 'you think this is embarrassing? So'}, {'start': '294.300', 'end': '296.633', 'text': 'this troublesome thing of mine'}, {'start': '296.633', 'end': '298.333', 'text': 'is bad news for me,'}, {'start': '298.333', 'end': '300.300', 'text': 'but I hope you can use it as a'}, {'start': '300.300', 'end': '302.233', 'text': 'reference for risk control.'}, {'start': '302.233', 'end': '303.400', 'text': 'If you are planning to'}, {'start': '304.333', 'end': '306.800', 'text': 'replace doors and windows in California next month, or'}, {'start': '306.800', 'end': '308.633', 'text': 'do some renovations and reconstructions,'}, {'start': '308.900', 'end': '311.266', 'text': 'even if you have planned the time,'}, {'start': '313.200', 'end': '315.533', 'text': 'you may encounter the same embarrassing problem as I did with many building materials and accessories. That is, while you are doing it, the'}, {'start': '316.466', 'end': '319.100', 'text': 'project throws you on the construction site,'}, {'start': '319.200', 'end': '320.633', 'text': 'but you have already found a construction team,'}, {'start': '320.633', 'end': '321.800', 'text': 'paid the money, and'}, {'start': '321.800', 'end': '324.066', 'text': 'all the demolition and removal in the house has been done,'}, {'start': '324.066', 'end': '325.400', 'text': 'but the goods have not arrived.'}, {'start': '325.400', 'end': '327.300', 'text': 'You see, there is a problem when the construction starts.'}, {'start': '327.433', 'end': '327.700', 'text': 'So,'}, {'start': '327.700', 'end': '331.333', 'text': 'if you decide to replace the windows and floors of the old house now, you'}, {'start': '331.333', 'end': '334.800', 'text': 'must confirm with the construction party, so as not to'}, {'start': '334.800', 'end': '336.933', 'text': 'throw you on the construction site halfway. I do'}, {'start': '336.933', 'end': '339.033', 'text': "n't want to hear such bad news from you."}, {'start': '339.033', 'end': '340.400', 'text': 'I hope your house purchase,'}, {'start': '340.400', 'end': '342.233', 'text': 'renovation and renewal will go smoothly.'}, {'start': '342.233', 'end': '342.633', 'text': 'Of course,'}, {'start': '342.633', 'end': '343.833', 'text': 'what we said above,'}, {'start': '343.833', 'end': '344.933', 'text': 'like the big builder we mentioned,'}, {'start': '344.933', 'end': '346.633', 'text': 'he bought a batch of goods in advance.'}, {'start': '346.633', 'end': '348.800', 'text': 'There are workarounds for inventory,'}, {'start': '348.833', 'end': '349.800', 'text': 'but next,'}, {'start': '349.800', 'end': '351.100', 'text': 'about the real estate issue'}, {'start': '351.100', 'end': '353.300', 'text': 'Then there may be no workarounds.'}, {'start': '353.300', 'end': '355.066', 'text': 'You have to be extra careful,'}, {'start': '355.066', 'end': '357.700', 'text': 'especially for those who had great expectations for the real estate investment market.'}, {'start': '363.100', 'end': '365.900', 'text': 'Among the various data on the US GDP recession, the'}, {'start': '365.900', 'end': '367.233', 'text': 'most noteworthy one'}, {'start': '367.233', 'end': '369.066', 'text': 'is the residential investment.'}, {'start': '369.100', 'end': '373.466', 'text': 'It has dropped from 0.53 points to 0.05 points.'}, {'start': '373.466', 'end': '374.333', 'text': 'You can do the math. It has'}, {'start': '374.333', 'end': '375.866', 'text': 'shrunk 10 times.'}, {'start': '375.900', 'end': '376.933', 'text': 'This reflects that'}, {'start': '376.933', 'end': '379.866', 'text': 'from the perspective of residential construction investment, there has been a significant slowdown'}, {'start': '379.866', 'end': '382.466', 'text': 'from the upstream front-end land acquisition and project acquisition'}, {'start': '382.533', 'end': '385.033', 'text': 'to the midstream construction and delivery of houses. As'}, {'start': '386.933', 'end': '389.866', 'text': "for the downstream people's feelings about buying houses,"}, {'start': '389.866', 'end': '391.000', 'text': 'this friend said that'}, {'start': '391.000', 'end': '393.233', 'text': 'before he went to see the new house project,'}, {'start': '393.233', 'end': '395.666', 'text': 'he still remembered that the new projects around the area were'}, {'start': '395.666', 'end': '398.033', 'text': 'sold out very quickly after they were launched.'}, {'start': '398.033', 'end': '399.933', 'text': 'Then he wanted to take a look at the model house,'}, {'start': '399.933', 'end': '402.400', 'text': 'but there were only two or three units left to choose from,'}, {'start': '402.400', 'end': '403.900', 'text': 'and he had to increase the price to grab them. Are there'}, {'start': '403.900', 'end': '405.033', 'text': 'no houses left?'}, {'start': '405.033', 'end': '406.333', 'text': 'But now he went to see'}, {'start': '406.333', 'end': '407.333', 'text': 'this project again, and'}, {'start': '407.400', 'end': '408.433', 'text': 'he can find seven or eight units left. Eight or nine'}, {'start': '408.433', 'end': '410.666', 'text': 'units are packaged with credits for him, and there are'}, {'start': '410.666', 'end': '412.133', 'text': 'also upgrade discounts.'}, {'start': '412.333', 'end': '413.266', 'text': 'Although this friend'}, {'start': '413.266', 'end': '415.633', 'text': 'shared this local case,'}, {'start': '415.766', 'end': '417.233', 'text': 'but today,'}, {'start': '417.233', 'end': '418.600', 'text': 'because I came to the seaside to'}, {'start': '418.600', 'end': '420.433', 'text': 'see this old house renovation project, on the'}, {'start': '420.533', 'end': '421.300', 'text': 'way here'}, {'start': '421.300', 'end': '422.800', 'text': 'I also took a careful look at'}, {'start': '422.833', 'end': '424.433', 'text': 'some of the apartments along the road.'}, {'start': '424.433', 'end': '426.000', 'text': 'Because in the development market and the'}, {'start': '426.000', 'end': '427.133', 'text': 'investment market,'}, {'start': '427.200', 'end': '429.066', 'text': 'some of them are apartment projects. Many of the'}, {'start': '429.066', 'end': '430.500', 'text': 'apartments along the street'}, {'start': '430.500', 'end': '433.533', 'text': 'are in a semi-suspended state.'}, {'start': '433.700', 'end': '434.866', 'text': 'What does this mean?'}, {'start': '434.933', 'end': '436.100', 'text': 'It reflects the'}, {'start': '436.100', 'end': '437.666', 'text': 'supply and demand relationship in the market from the side. The'}, {'start': '437.800', 'end': '440.300', 'text': 'market demand is slowing down.'}, {'start': '440.400', 'end': '442.933', 'text': 'It may be on the supply side of the development. The'}, {'start': '443.066', 'end': '445.800', 'text': 'developers consider it from their own profit perspective. The'}, {'start': '445.800', 'end': '447.600', 'text': 'faster you build it, the'}, {'start': '447.600', 'end': '450.266', 'text': 'greater the short-term supply on the market will be, and the'}, {'start': '450.333', 'end': '452.466', 'text': 'price pressure will be too great. Single-'}, {'start': '452.466', 'end': '454.433', 'text': 'family houses may be relatively better,'}, {'start': '454.433', 'end': '455.933', 'text': 'especially in cities that are short of land and are'}, {'start': '455.933', 'end': '458.300', 'text': 'more harsh on renting,'}, {'start': '458.300', 'end': '459.333', 'text': 'such as California, Massachusetts, and'}, {'start': '460.300', 'end': '461.266', 'text': 'Connecticut.'}, {'start': '461.266', 'end': '463.133', 'text': 'However, for condos, the'}, {'start': '464.133', 'end': '466.400', 'text': 'time they stay on the market after they are listed is likely to be even longer. The'}, {'start': '466.400', 'end': '467.933', 'text': 'next 100 days will put even'}, {'start': '467.933', 'end': '469.600', 'text': 'more pressure on them.'}, {'start': '469.600', 'end': '470.433', 'text': 'So some viewers'}, {'start': '470.433', 'end': '471.733', 'text': 'left a message saying that he is very humorous and'}, {'start': '471.733', 'end': '472.800', 'text': 'teased him, saying'}, {'start': '472.800', 'end': '476.333', 'text': 'that the next 100 days will have to go down all the way and'}, {'start': '476.333', 'end': '478.033', 'text': 'everyone should wait for the carnival.'}, {'start': '478.033', 'end': '479.233', 'text': 'My understanding is that'}, {'start': '479.233', 'end': '481.066', 'text': 'even if it is not going down all the way,'}, {'start': '481.200', 'end': '483.700', 'text': 'it should be a stalemate, at'}, {'start': '483.700', 'end': '485.266', 'text': 'least from what I have observed.  The'}, {'start': '485.266', 'end': '487.600', 'text': 'amount of construction and delivery will continue'}, {'start': '487.900', 'end': '489.500', 'text': 'in the next 100 days.'}, {'start': '490.900', 'end': '493.433', 'text': 'This drag on the real estate investment market is'}, {'start': '493.700', 'end': '495.100', 'text': 'because we have talked about the'}, {'start': '495.100', 'end': '496.100', 'text': 'cycles and rules of real estate before. We have'}, {'start': '496.100', 'end': '498.033', 'text': 'shared two cycles with you.'}, {'start': '498.033', 'end': '499.000', 'text': 'One is called the big cycle, which'}, {'start': '499.000', 'end': '500.433', 'text': 'follows the fluctuations of our'}, {'start': '500.433', 'end': '501.700', 'text': 'macro-economic structure and'}, {'start': '501.700', 'end': '502.933', 'text': 'financial markets.'}, {'start': '502.933', 'end': '503.933', 'text': 'This is the big cycle. The'}, {'start': '504.033', 'end': '505.466', 'text': 'other is called the small cycle.'}, {'start': '505.466', 'end': '507.066', 'text': 'No matter how the big cycle fluctuates, the'}, {'start': '507.066', 'end': '509.133', 'text': 'small cycle will generally show that'}, {'start': '509.133', 'end': '509.933', 'text': 'every year, the'}, {'start': '509.933', 'end': '513.733', 'text': 'first half of the year is the relatively peak season for the real estate market. The'}, {'start': '513.733', 'end': '515.433', 'text': 'volume of real estate transactions increases, and'}, {'start': '515.433', 'end': '517.133', 'text': 'housing prices gradually increase.'}, {'start': '517.133', 'end': '518.466', 'text': 'However, in the first half of this year,'}, {'start': '518.466', 'end': '519.800', 'text': 'even in the northeastern United States,'}, {'start': '519.800', 'end': '522.433', 'text': 'it still maintains this fierce rush for housing.'}, {'start': '522.466', 'end': '524.200', 'text': 'However, except for the northeast,'}, {'start': '525.700', 'end': '528.500', 'text': 'many core cities in the southeast, central and southern regions are'}, {'start': '528.500', 'end': '530.933', 'text': 'not as popular as in the first half of previous years.'}, {'start': '538.800', 'end': '541.433', 'text': 'What kind of huge risks may this bring to friends who are still planning to invest in real estate in the next 100 days? Please'}, {'start': '545.333', 'end': '547.533', 'text': 'note that if you are an individual investor,'}, {'start': '547.533', 'end': '548.800', 'text': 'not only your investment, but also the'}, {'start': '548.800', 'end': '550.600', 'text': 'part of buying and selling houses,'}, {'start': '550.600', 'end': '552.033', 'text': 'and the rental market, if'}, {'start': '552.033', 'end': '553.133', 'text': 'you want to rent out houses, it will not be as'}, {'start': '553.200', 'end': '555.466', 'text': 'easy as in the first half of the year.'}, {'start': '555.600', 'end': '556.700', 'text': 'Because as far as I know, large investment institutions have'}, {'start': '557.800', 'end': '559.033', 'text': 'acquired houses in large numbers.'}, {'start': '559.033', 'end': '560.900', 'text': 'Hundreds and thousands of units.'}, {'start': '560.900', 'end': '563.033', 'text': 'We have talked about this investment paradox before.'}, {'start': '563.200', 'end': '565.733', 'text': "You don't want real estate speculation institutions to"}, {'start': '565.833', 'end': '567.700', 'text': 'come to your doorstep to speculate on your house,'}, {'start': '567.800', 'end': '568.000', 'text': 'but'}, {'start': '568.000', 'end': '570.600', 'text': 'you hope that the stocks of these investment institutions you buy'}, {'start': '570.600', 'end': '571.900', 'text': 'can help you make a lot of money.'}, {'start': '572.000', 'end': '573.300', 'text': 'So now we can see that'}, {'start': '573.300', 'end': '574.933', 'text': 'from the perspective of the builder, the'}, {'start': '574.933', 'end': '576.700', 'text': 'investment strategy is shrinking.'}, {'start': '576.733', 'end': '578.900', 'text': 'Because when we are actually developing a project,'}, {'start': '578.933', 'end': '580.633', 'text': 'how do you view this development'}, {'start': '580.633', 'end': '582.000', 'text': '? It is dynamic and'}, {'start': '582.000', 'end': '583.333', 'text': 'positive to the market. It'}, {'start': '583.333', 'end': '586.466', 'text': 'dares to continue to buy and hoard land in large quantities.'}, {'start': '586.633', 'end': '588.333', 'text': 'If the real estate developer has no land,'}, {'start': '588.333', 'end': '589.200', 'text': 'or shrinks and does'}, {'start': '589.200', 'end': '591.700', 'text': 'not consider buying land in the short term,'}, {'start': '591.700', 'end': '594.433', 'text': 'it means that the local area may be relatively shrinking.'}, {'start': '594.533', 'end': '595.133', 'text': 'Even from what I'}, {'start': '595.133', 'end': '595.866', 'text': 'have learned, in'}, {'start': '595.866', 'end': '598.533', 'text': 'Texas, this is the developer I have come into contact with.'}, {'start': '598.533', 'end': '600.066', 'text': 'Many local small developers'}, {'start': '600.066', 'end': '602.033', 'text': 'have stagnated in acquiring land.'}, {'start': '602.133', 'end': '602.700', 'text': 'In other words,'}, {'start': '602.700', 'end': '604.333', 'text': 'these small investment markets'}, {'start': '604.333', 'end': '607.600', 'text': 'may experience a small negative growth.'}, {'start': '607.600', 'end': '608.600', 'text': 'What does it mean?'}, {'start': '608.633', 'end': '610.200', 'text': 'You will see more housing sources.'}, {'start': '610.200', 'end': '611.333', 'text': 'They are eager to clear out.'}, {'start': '611.333', 'end': '613.833', 'text': 'After clearing out this batch of high inventory,'}, {'start': '613.833', 'end': '615.666', 'text': 'they will continue to consider'}, {'start': '615.666', 'end': '617.333', 'text': 'whether there are new land use indicators and'}, {'start': '617.333', 'end': '620.200', 'text': 'whether they can start planning new development projects.'}, {'start': '620.200', 'end': '620.866', 'text': 'Then think about it,'}, {'start': '620.866', 'end': '622.033', 'text': 'these large companies,'}, {'start': '622.033', 'end': '623.833', 'text': 'large investment institutions, and'}, {'start': '623.833', 'end': '624.866', 'text': 'real estate speculation gangs,'}, {'start': '624.866', 'end': '625.466', 'text': 'they all have to consider'}, {'start': '625.466', 'end': '626.666', 'text': 'the next 100 days.  We'}, {'start': '626.666', 'end': '628.000', 'text': 'need to balance the risks.'}, {'start': '628.000', 'end': '629.633', 'text': 'For individual investors,'}, {'start': '629.633', 'end': '632.433', 'text': 'you need to carefully evaluate the local investment market.'}, {'start': '632.700', 'end': '633.833', 'text': 'So,'}, {'start': '633.833', 'end': '636.500', 'text': 'we have talked about the next 100 days.'}, {'start': '636.633', 'end': '637.900', 'text': "Let's talk about the bad news."}, {'start': '637.900', 'end': '639.866', 'text': 'In fact, it is to give you a risk warning. In'}, {'start': '640.100', 'end': '641.100', 'text': 'essence,'}, {'start': '641.100', 'end': '643.033', 'text': 'real estate is very localized.'}, {'start': '643.033', 'end': '644.333', 'text': 'It is a non-standard product.'}, {'start': '644.333', 'end': '645.400', 'text': 'Each region is different. At the'}, {'start': '645.466', 'end': '646.200', 'text': 'same time,'}, {'start': '646.200', 'end': '648.733', 'text': 'I also hope that everyone will look at these risks objectively.'}, {'start': '648.733', 'end': '651.033', 'text': 'Good news and bad news are relative.'}, {'start': '651.200', 'end': '653.666', 'text': 'For example, in the face of the shrinking investment market,'}, {'start': '653.666', 'end': '655.633', 'text': 'speculators have retreated.'}, {'start': '655.633', 'end': '657.066', 'text': 'Friends who buy their own homes'}, {'start': '657.066', 'end': '659.500', 'text': 'may welcome our good news,'}, {'start': '659.500', 'end': '663.500', 'text': 'and it may be a double blessing. We have'}, {'start': '667.400', 'end': '669.133', 'text': 'talked about 4 bad news in a row.'}, {'start': '669.133', 'end': '669.866', 'text': 'Next,'}, {'start': '669.866', 'end': '671.866', 'text': "let's talk about the good news."}, {'start': '672.200', 'end': '674.400', 'text': 'Friends who are going to buy their own homes in the second half of the year,'}, {'start': '674.400', 'end': '676.533', 'text': "especially those who have already felt that they can't buy any more houses,"}, {'start': '677.666', 'end': '680.000', 'text': 'we may have two good news. The'}, {'start': '680.233', 'end': '682.466', 'text': 'first is about the mortgage interest rate.'}, {'start': '682.600', 'end': '685.400', 'text': 'Fannie Mae has a forecast for the mortgage interest rate in the second half of the year.'}, {'start': '686.266', 'end': '687.666', 'text': 'At least it is a weather vane.'}, {'start': '688.000', 'end': '689.300', 'text': 'Well, that is his forecast. The'}, {'start': '689.300', 'end': '692.133', 'text': 'loan interest rate is gradually declining. So'}, {'start': '692.200', 'end': '693.233', 'text': 'for'}, {'start': '693.233', 'end': '696.066', 'text': 'friends who need loans to buy their own homes, they'}, {'start': '696.066', 'end': '697.800', 'text': 'may have waited for a long time. Is it that the'}, {'start': '697.800', 'end': '699.200', 'text': 'interest rate is too high?'}, {'start': '699.200', 'end': '700.866', 'text': 'Although it has not dropped below 5, right?'}, {'start': '700.866', 'end': '701.900', 'text': 'But if it drops to 6,'}, {'start': '702.100', 'end': '704.400', 'text': 'at least we see a downward trend,'}, {'start': '704.466', 'end': '706.266', 'text': 'then the pressure of buying a house for self-use'}, {'start': '706.266', 'end': '707.700', 'text': 'may be much smaller.'}, {'start': '707.700', 'end': '709.400', 'text': 'Just like what this viewer said in the comment,'}, {'start': '709.466', 'end': '711.500', 'text': 'he would rather buy a house in the second half of the year. In the'}, {'start': '711.600', 'end': '714.000', 'text': 'first half of the year, many parents were fighting for the house because their children had to go to school.'}, {'start': '715.600', 'end': '717.933', 'text': 'All cash is the standard,'}, {'start': '717.933', 'end': '719.600', 'text': 'but all cash is not an advantage.'}, {'start': '719.633', 'end': '720.833', 'text': 'You can go to the poker table,'}, {'start': '720.833', 'end': '723.033', 'text': 'then the pressure in the second half of the year will not be so great. So the'}, {'start': '723.266', 'end': '725.000', 'text': 'second good news is that the'}, {'start': '725.000', 'end': '727.600', 'text': 'rush to buy a house for self-use in the second half of the year'}, {'start': '727.600', 'end': '729.300', 'text': 'may be a good thing.'}, {'start': '729.666', 'end': '731.266', 'text': 'Of course, I would also like to say that'}, {'start': '731.266', 'end': '732.833', 'text': 'when the loan interest rate drops,'}, {'start': '732.833', 'end': '735.133', 'text': 'a possibility cannot be ruled out,'}, {'start': '735.200', 'end': '738.333', 'text': 'that is, many people who were watching the situation before will'}, {'start': '738.333', 'end': '739.300', 'text': 'see that the'}, {'start': '739.300', 'end': '741.466', 'text': 'loan interest rate has a downward trend,'}, {'start': '741.500', 'end': '742.600', 'text': 'so everyone will rush to buy the house together. It is'}, {'start': '742.600', 'end': '744.333', 'text': 'also possible that'}, {'start': '744.333', 'end': '747.400', 'text': 'in the old city communities in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California in the east,'}, {'start': '748.533', 'end': '750.233', 'text': 'many people have already set their sights on these locations'}, {'start': '750.233', 'end': '751.700', 'text': 'because many viewers have left comments saying that they'}, {'start': '751.700', 'end': '753.600', 'text': 'like old houses,'}, {'start': '753.600', 'end': '754.466', 'text': 'not second-hand houses, because they have large plots and'}, {'start': '754.466', 'end': '755.800', 'text': 'large yards, and'}, {'start': '755.800', 'end': '758.066', 'text': 'they like to live comfortably and at ease.'}, {'start': '758.066', 'end': '759.100', 'text': 'Once they see the interest rate drop, they'}, {'start': '759.100', 'end': '760.300', 'text': 'may come back to buy the house.'}, {'start': '760.300', 'end': '762.700', 'text': 'This is also what we reminded in the last episode. For'}, {'start': '762.800', 'end': '763.800', 'text': 'real estate, we'}, {'start': '763.800', 'end': '766.666', 'text': 'should give priority to local high-quality assets'}, {'start': '766.700', 'end': '768.400', 'text': 'with good urban planning structures.  There'}, {'start': '768.400', 'end': '771.266', 'text': 'will be a lot of high-quality locations waiting to be snapped up.'}, {'start': '771.466', 'end': '773.600', 'text': 'If you have high requirements for the quality of the community you live in,'}, {'start': '774.900', 'end': '776.600', 'text': 'then to grab a house in these locations,'}, {'start': '776.600', 'end': '777.466', 'text': 'you can'}, {'start': '777.466', 'end': '778.533', 'text': 'take some time every week to walk around'}, {'start': '778.533', 'end': '779.466', 'text': 'your own community and the'}, {'start': '779.466', 'end': '780.533', 'text': 'neighboring communities.'}, {'start': '782.233', 'end': '783.066', 'text': 'You can see the number of'}, {'start': '783.066', 'end': '785.333', 'text': 'people received at the open house every day.'}, {'start': '785.333', 'end': '787.033', 'text': 'Based on the number of people each week,'}, {'start': '787.033', 'end': '789.633', 'text': 'you can infer the'}, {'start': '789.633', 'end': '792.700', 'text': 'popularity of the surrounding areas in your community. From what'}, {'start': '792.866', 'end': '794.266', 'text': 'we have seen,'}, {'start': '794.266', 'end': '795.033', 'text': 'locations like this are constantly accepting houses, flipping houses, building houses, and selling houses'}, {'start': '795.033', 'end': '796.733', 'text': 'regardless of spring, summer, autumn, or winter.'}, {'start': '800.733', 'end': '801.900', 'text': 'So, for real estate,'}, {'start': '801.900', 'end': '802.733', 'text': 'we emphasize again that'}, {'start': '802.733', 'end': '804.133', 'text': 'each place is different. If you'}, {'start': '804.233', 'end': '805.333', 'text': 'have time on weekends, go'}, {'start': '805.333', 'end': '807.866', 'text': 'out to see the people coming and going at the open houses and'}, {'start': '807.866', 'end': '809.000', 'text': 'calculate the flow of people. Okay,'}, {'start': '809.133', 'end': '810.200', 'text': 'so in this episode,'}, {'start': '810.200', 'end': '812.266', 'text': 'we will look at the GDP data of the United States,'}, {'start': '812.266', 'end': '814.866', 'text': 'especially the proportion of shrinking real estate investment,'}, {'start': '814.866', 'end': '817.666', 'text': 'as well as my experience in the development of contractors,'}, {'start': '817.666', 'end': '819.066', 'text': 'their material pressure,'}, {'start': '819.066', 'end': '820.133', 'text': 'logistics experience, the'}, {'start': '820.200', 'end': '821.700', 'text': 'delivery volume of new houses,'}, {'start': '821.700', 'end': '823.033', 'text': 'and the audience. Please'}, {'start': '823.033', 'end': '825.133', 'text': 'leave a message from your own perspective and exchange'}, {'start': '825.133', 'end': '828.066', 'text': 'some risks and changes in the real estate market.'}, {'start': '829.000', 'end': '830.700', 'text': 'So whether you are planning to buy a house for investment'}, {'start': '830.700', 'end': '831.900', 'text': 'or to renovate, you'}, {'start': '831.900', 'end': '832.900', 'text': 'must remember one thing,'}, {'start': '832.900', 'end': '834.000', 'text': 'no matter where you are'}, {'start': '834.000', 'end': '837.500', 'text': "Don't make emotional decisions or judgements on the spur of the moment. You"}, {'start': '837.633', 'end': '839.833', 'text': 'should first make a list of these risk control measures.'}, {'start': '839.933', 'end': '842.300', 'text': 'You can also follow the program updates at any time.'}, {'start': '842.300', 'end': '844.500', 'text': 'I will share with you more'}, {'start': '844.500', 'end': '846.933', 'text': 'first-line real estate experience and investment data in the history of development. For'}, {'start': '847.133', 'end': '848.200', 'text': 'old houses like this, the'}, {'start': '848.200', 'end': '849.033', 'text': 'side yard and the'}, {'start': '849.033', 'end': '850.900', 'text': 'front yard are also public land like this.'}, {'start': '853.133', 'end': '854.500', 'text': 'This is a public road, and'}, {'start': '854.533', 'end': '855.733', 'text': 'he is also responsible for mowing it. For example,'}, {'start': '855.733', 'end': '857.533', 'text': 'this one is mowed a little less, so you'}, {'start': '857.866', 'end': '859.533', 'text': 'can bump into it even if you pass by it.'}, {'start': '859.733', 'end': '861.300', 'text': 'Thank you for your likes and subscriptions.'}, {'start': '861.300', 'end': '862.600', 'text': "Don't forget to turn on the bell so you"}, {'start': '862.600', 'end': '864.500', 'text': "don't miss the next exciting sharing."}]