Deep Learning Frameworks for Soil Carbon Mapping in Hawaiʻi
NREM Department at UH Mānoa
[{'start': '121.363', 'end': '123.923', 'text': 'Thank you. I will'}, {'start': '124.003', 'end': '126.483', 'text': 'continue. Sorry if you missed all that.'}, {'start': '127.843', 'end': '130.563', 'text': 'So you know we we have the'}, {'start': '130.563', 'end': '132.883', 'text': 'enormous about ground storage of soil'}, {'start': '132.963', 'end': '135.443', 'text': 'carbon here in the top soil systems, but'}, {'start': '135.763', 'end': '138.363', 'text': 'below ground also is enormous. So'}, {'start': '138.883', 'end': '140.763', 'text': 'just to put that in context of all the'}, {'start': '140.763', 'end': '143.603', 'text': "other biomes we're dealing with high"}, {'start': '143.603', 'end': '146.323', 'text': 'carbon systems here and they have'}, {'start': '146.323', 'end': '147.483', 'text': 'implications for climate change.'}, {'start': '151.443', 'end': '153.203', 'text': "But we're dealing with some challenges"}, {'start': '153.203', 'end': '154.963', 'text': 'here and when'}, {'start': '156.083', 'end': '158.043', 'text': 'across the islands and the different'}, {'start': '158.043', 'end': '160.483', 'text': 'ecosystems that we have and some of that'}, {'start': '160.483', 'end': '162.883', 'text': 'has to do with the high variability of'}, {'start': '162.963', 'end': '165.923', 'text': 'soils in both space and time. And of'}, {'start': '165.923', 'end': '167.683', 'text': 'course those are impacted by things like'}, {'start': '168.003', 'end': '169.563', 'text': 'climate and our very steep climate'}, {'start': '169.563', 'end': '171.603', 'text': 'gradients that we have across the islands'}, {'start': '172.083', 'end': '173.923', 'text': 'as well as the complexity of other'}, {'start': '173.923', 'end': '176.923', 'text': 'drivers thinking about. You know'}, {'start': '176.963', 'end': '179.603', 'text': 'the the mineralogy, the age of the the'}, {'start': '179.603', 'end': '181.923', 'text': 'volcanics underlying those soils.'}, {'start': '182.403', 'end': '184.803', 'text': "So we're dealing with a great deal of"}, {'start': '184.883', 'end': '187.203', 'text': 'complexity and kind of the drivers of'}, {'start': '187.203', 'end': '189.603', 'text': 'soil carbon. And'}, {'start': '190.283', 'end': '192.323', 'text': 'for that reason and others, the widely'}, {'start': '192.323', 'end': '194.883', 'text': 'used models like century and descent'}, {'start': '195.523', 'end': '198.483', 'text': "don't work well for capturing soil carbon"}, {'start': '198.483', 'end': '200.643', 'text': 'in these systems. It actually Max out'}, {'start': '200.723', 'end': '203.043', 'text': 'before reaching the high carbon that we'}, {'start': '203.043', 'end': '205.603', 'text': 'see in these soils here.'}, {'start': '206.243', 'end': '207.603', 'text': "So we're trying to come up with some"}, {'start': '207.603', 'end': '209.443', 'text': 'better methods to quantify that soil.'}, {'start': '210.563', 'end': '213.203', 'text': "And here's just another example of that,"}, {'start': '213.283', 'end': '216.083', 'text': 'the soil or the island ages that we have'}, {'start': '216.363', 'end': '218.723', 'text': 'going from, you know, the the still'}, {'start': '218.723', 'end': '220.883', 'text': 'forming volcanics on Big Island all the'}, {'start': '220.923', 'end': '223.123', 'text': 'way up to .7 year old'}, {'start': '227.123', 'end': '229.683', 'text': 'and that manifests in our soil'}, {'start': '229.683', 'end': '231.363', 'text': 'diversity that we see across the island.'}, {'start': '231.523', 'end': '233.843', 'text': 'So this is mapped from. of the'}, {'start': '233.843', 'end': '236.563', 'text': 'NRCS, and these are soil suborders'}, {'start': '236.563', 'end': '238.683', 'text': 'across the islands. You can see the'}, {'start': '238.683', 'end': '241.283', 'text': 'enormous diversity that we have here.'}, {'start': '241.763', 'end': '244.323', 'text': 'And you know those'}, {'start': '244.323', 'end': '247.323', 'text': 'reflect different processes happening'}, {'start': '247.323', 'end': '248.963', 'text': 'in terms of above ground carbon, below'}, {'start': '248.963', 'end': '250.923', 'text': 'ground carbon, climate factors,'}, {'start': '250.923', 'end': '252.203', 'text': 'mineralogy, all of that.'}, {'start': '254.483', 'end': '256.723', 'text': 'OK, so what do we have available in terms'}, {'start': '256.723', 'end': '259.683', 'text': 'of soil carbon maps'}, {'start': '259.763', 'end': '262.563', 'text': 'to work with?Right now, well,'}, {'start': '262.563', 'end': '265.203', 'text': "one is soil grids and it's 250"}, {'start': '265.203', 'end': '266.483', 'text': 'meter resolution,'}, {'start': '268.243', 'end': '271.043', 'text': "but the problem with that is it's 0 to 30"}, {'start': '271.043', 'end': '273.683', 'text': 'centimeter carbon stocks. And'}, {'start': '274.163', 'end': '276.083', 'text': 'as you may know, we have extremely deep'}, {'start': '276.083', 'end': '278.403', 'text': 'soils here and 30'}, {'start': '278.403', 'end': '281.043', 'text': 'centimeters has got captured in this full'}, {'start': '281.043', 'end': '283.763', 'text': 'profiles that we have. In some cases'}, {'start': '283.763', 'end': '286.763', 'text': "it does, but it's not sufficient for"}, {'start': '286.763', 'end': '289.723', 'text': 'our purposes, although it does come'}, {'start': '289.723', 'end': '292.203', 'text': 'with uncertainty. you can see that there'}, {'start': '292.203', 'end': '295.163', 'text': 'is extremely high uncertainty in a lot of'}, {'start': '295.163', 'end': '298.083', 'text': 'areas across, especially this more'}, {'start': '298.083', 'end': '301.003', 'text': 'mountainous areas, and you'}, {'start': '301.003', 'end': '303.043', 'text': 'know, areas of high above ground biomass,'}, {'start': '303.043', 'end': '305.883', 'text': 'which sometimes reflect, you know,'}, {'start': '305.883', 'end': '307.523', 'text': 'high below ground as well.'}, {'start': '309.203', 'end': '311.763', 'text': 'So another data source is open land map,'}, {'start': '312.243', 'end': '315.123', 'text': 'andThe issue with this'}, {'start': '315.123', 'end': '318.083', 'text': 'is that they only have percent carbon,'}, {'start': '318.323', 'end': '321.083', 'text': 'not stock data. So this is for zero to'}, {'start': '321.123', 'end': '323.523', 'text': '10 centimeter depth. They have a bunch of'}, {'start': '323.523', 'end': '325.123', 'text': 'different depth increments all the way'}, {'start': '325.123', 'end': '328.123', 'text': 'down to to 200 plus'}, {'start': '328.123', 'end': '331.043', 'text': 'centimeters. But again, that is'}, {'start': '331.043', 'end': '333.523', 'text': 'not a stock, that is just a percent part.'}, {'start': '334.083', 'end': '336.243', 'text': "So it's not good enough for our purposes"}, {'start': '336.243', 'end': '339.083', 'text': "here and there's, you know, pretty high"}, {'start': '339.083', 'end': '340.883', 'text': 'uncertainty associated with that as well'}, {'start': '342.403', 'end': '345.363', 'text': 'and the final. data source we'}, {'start': '345.363', 'end': '347.283', 'text': 'have available as far as mapped carbon'}, {'start': '347.283', 'end': '349.483', 'text': 'comes from the carbon assessment of what'}, {'start': '349.483', 'end': '352.483', 'text': 'we, and that is based on'}, {'start': '352.483', 'end': '354.443', 'text': 'SURGO data. This is'}, {'start': '354.443', 'end': '356.563', 'text': 'NRCS from the USDA,'}, {'start': '357.523', 'end': '360.003', 'text': "and that's basically mapped to the soil,"}, {'start': '360.483', 'end': '363.043', 'text': 'the the mapping units that they use.'}, {'start': '363.763', 'end': '366.243', 'text': 'And so you can see kind of the'}, {'start': '367.043', 'end': '369.803', 'text': 'the wide areas basically taking organic'}, {'start': '369.803', 'end': '371.963', 'text': "carbon estimates, we'll find it better."}, {'start': '373.443', 'end': '375.523', 'text': "You know, 58% and saying that that's the"}, {'start': '375.523', 'end': '378.483', 'text': 'soil carbon in this whole area. And'}, {'start': '378.483', 'end': '380.883', 'text': "of course that's not good enough for our"}, {'start': '381.243', 'end': '383.363', 'text': 'purposes. We know that soil carbon varies'}, {'start': '383.363', 'end': '386.203', 'text': "a lot more than that. So that's a"}, {'start': '386.203', 'end': '387.763', 'text': 'little bit of the reasoning that for'}, {'start': '387.763', 'end': '390.603', 'text': 'doing this work. What we have to work'}, {'start': '390.683', 'end': '392.203', 'text': "with here and what I've been working with"}, {'start': '392.403', 'end': '394.083', 'text': 'is a couple of different data sets. So'}, {'start': '394.083', 'end': '396.883', 'text': 'one is imputed soil carbon'}, {'start': '396.883', 'end': '399.123', 'text': 'stock or soil carbon percentage, excuse'}, {'start': '399.123', 'end': '401.523', 'text': 'me, from zero to 20 centimeter depth.'}, {'start': '402.403', 'end': '404.803', 'text': 'And that those data come from the Hawaii'}, {'start': '404.803', 'end': '407.523', 'text': 'soil carbon database, course'}, {'start': '407.523', 'end': '410.003', 'text': "inventory and analysis data. So that's"}, {'start': '410.363', 'end': '413.043', 'text': 'FIA data, Forest Service and then the'}, {'start': '413.043', 'end': '415.283', 'text': 'Hawaii soil health database.'}, {'start': '416.243', 'end': '418.723', 'text': 'And what we end up with those data is 850'}, {'start': '418.763', 'end': '420.963', 'text': 'unique locations across the islands.'}, {'start': '422.883', 'end': '424.563', 'text': "With the second data set, I've imputed"}, {'start': '424.563', 'end': '427.043', 'text': 'stocks to 1 meter from just the soil'}, {'start': '427.083', 'end': '429.683', 'text': 'carbon database and the FIA data. And we'}, {'start': '429.683', 'end': '432.643', 'text': 'end up with 916 units of patients across'}, {'start': '432.643', 'end': '435.603', 'text': 'that. And just to show that'}, {'start': '435.603', 'end': '438.443', 'text': 'when you map that out, you get this'}, {'start': '438.443', 'end': '440.483', 'text': 'distribution of soil carbon for the first'}, {'start': '440.483', 'end': '442.963', 'text': 'data set and we have kind of'}, {'start': '442.963', 'end': '445.683', 'text': 'lower carbon estimates in the in'}, {'start': '447.843', 'end': '450.643', 'text': 'the whiter color and then the darker red'}, {'start': '450.643', 'end': '452.963', 'text': 'or higher carbon estimates. But these are'}, {'start': '452.963', 'end': '455.043', 'text': 'mainly to show this the distribution of'}, {'start': '455.083', 'end': '457.683', 'text': 'data and see we have some data for areas.'}, {'start': '459.243', 'end': '461.363', 'text': 'And then, when we have the depths as'}, {'start': '461.363', 'end': '464.083', 'text': "well, we're very data poor. And"}, {'start': '466.323', 'end': '468.403', 'text': 'yeah, we were big island to what you um'}, {'start': '471.123', 'end': '473.003', 'text': "But those are what i'm what those are the"}, {'start': '473.123', 'end': '475.243', 'text': 'soil carbon data going into these machine'}, {'start': '475.283', 'end': '478.163', 'text': 'learning. So before I'}, {'start': '478.163', 'end': '480.403', 'text': 'get into that, I just want to say a'}, {'start': '480.403', 'end': '483.123', 'text': 'little bit about process based modeling,'}, {'start': '483.203', 'end': '484.363', 'text': "because that's the kind of the"}, {'start': '484.363', 'end': '486.603', 'text': 'traditional method, and'}, {'start': '487.203', 'end': '489.723', 'text': "It's a starting point and that's where"}, {'start': '489.723', 'end': '491.923', 'text': "we're basically attempting to simulate"}, {'start': '492.043', 'end': '494.003', 'text': 'the underlying deposition processes that'}, {'start': '494.003', 'end': '496.923', 'text': 'are happening, carbon transformations, a'}, {'start': '496.923', 'end': '499.203', 'text': 'lot of those are microbially influence'}, {'start': '499.603', 'end': '501.403', 'text': 'and you can have different pooled models.'}, {'start': '501.403', 'end': '504.403', 'text': 'So anything from you know one pool models'}, {'start': '504.403', 'end': '507.203', 'text': 'to five plus pools depending on how'}, {'start': '507.243', 'end': '508.723', 'text': 'fast you make the decomposition is'}, {'start': '508.723', 'end': '511.603', 'text': 'happening. And I have an example'}, {'start': '511.603', 'end': '514.163', 'text': 'here of Doctor Kathy Todd'}, {'start': '514.203', 'end': '516.763', 'text': "Brown's model where. We have the rate of"}, {'start': '516.803', 'end': '519.683', 'text': 'change in soil carbon stocks equaling the'}, {'start': '519.843', 'end': '522.843', 'text': 'natural primary production minus the'}, {'start': '523.043', 'end': '524.723', 'text': 'decomposition rate, temperature'}, {'start': '524.723', 'end': '526.883', 'text': 'sensitivity, moisture sensitivity and'}, {'start': '527.123', 'end': '529.363', 'text': "current soil carbon stock. And that's a"}, {'start': '529.363', 'end': '531.963', 'text': 'fairly simplistic model. But you can'}, {'start': '531.963', 'end': '534.803', 'text': 'imagine that when you you have'}, {'start': '534.803', 'end': '537.443', 'text': 'such, you have localized parameters for,'}, {'start': '538.963', 'end': '541.243', 'text': "you know, for each of those. You're going"}, {'start': '541.243', 'end': '542.923', 'text': 'to get some pretty site-specific'}, {'start': '542.923', 'end': '545.283', 'text': 'estimates for soil carbon, and those'}, {'start': '545.283', 'end': '546.963', 'text': "aren't necessarily going to be able to be"}, {'start': '546.963', 'end': '549.283', 'text': 'extrapolated for wall to wall mapping'}, {'start': '549.323', 'end': '551.243', 'text': "like we're trying to be here. They're"}, {'start': '551.243', 'end': '553.123', 'text': 'also, you know, being focused.'}, {'start': '553.763', 'end': '556.523', 'text': "And So what we're trying to do is"}, {'start': '556.523', 'end': '559.043', 'text': 'this generative method instead.'}, {'start': '559.883', 'end': '562.083', 'text': 'And this is more data-driven. You do need'}, {'start': '562.483', 'end': '564.403', 'text': 'a great deal of data to go into these'}, {'start': '564.403', 'end': '567.163', 'text': "models, but they're a lot better at,"}, {'start': '567.843', 'end': '569.803', 'text': 'you know, finding connections in complex'}, {'start': '569.803', 'end': '572.323', 'text': 'systems. And basically'}, {'start': '573.923', 'end': '576.083', 'text': 'you can generate distributions of data'}, {'start': '576.123', 'end': '578.083', 'text': 'instead of means. So'}, {'start': '581.963', 'end': '584.403', 'text': 'when we look at soil carbon data across'}, {'start': '584.563', 'end': '587.363', 'text': 'an area, you can imagine kind of a'}, {'start': '587.363', 'end': '590.163', 'text': 'homogeneous field and you might get'}, {'start': '590.483', 'end': '593.403', 'text': 'fairly similar soil carbon data when you'}, {'start': '593.403', 'end': '595.123', 'text': "go so I'll sample in a couple of my"}, {'start': '595.123', 'end': '597.523', 'text': 'locations, but then think about the'}, {'start': '597.523', 'end': '599.963', 'text': 'complex topography we have here we have.'}, {'start': '600.403', 'end': '602.803', 'text': 'Land uses and above ground carbon.'}, {'start': '603.043', 'end': '605.923', 'text': "So it's a mean is not"}, {'start': '605.923', 'end': '607.803', 'text': 'necessarily representative of that'}, {'start': '607.803', 'end': '610.643', 'text': 'system. And so with this method'}, {'start': '610.803', 'end': '613.043', 'text': "or these methods that I'll be talking"}, {'start': '613.043', 'end': '615.523', 'text': "about, it's they really can capture this"}, {'start': '615.523', 'end': '617.003', 'text': 'distribution, different types of'}, {'start': '617.043', 'end': '619.163', 'text': 'distributions instead of just baking'}, {'start': '619.163', 'end': '620.563', 'text': 'everything down into a mean.'}, {'start': '622.643', 'end': '624.723', 'text': 'They can also deal with time series data'}, {'start': '624.963', 'end': '627.283', 'text': 'and data on multiple spaces scales.'}, {'start': '630.003', 'end': '632.083', 'text': "So i'll be talking about Well, i'll be"}, {'start': '632.083', 'end': '633.803', 'text': 'sharing results from 3 machine'}, {'start': '634.203', 'end': '636.003', 'text': "approaches. I won't go too much into the"}, {'start': '636.003', 'end': '638.803', 'text': 'actual approaches, but one of'}, {'start': '638.803', 'end': '641.803', 'text': 'them is the random forest method. And'}, {'start': '642.323', 'end': '644.523', 'text': "so what i've done with that method is to"}, {'start': '646.083', 'end': '648.243', 'text': 'you know for each soil carbon point'}, {'start': '648.243', 'end': '651.203', 'text': 'estimate we or observation. Rather'}, {'start': '651.203', 'end': '654.203', 'text': 'we have a set of covariates, and that'}, {'start': '654.203', 'end': '655.683', 'text': 'would be things like climate data,'}, {'start': '656.723', 'end': '659.243', 'text': 'topography data. Set a'}, {'start': '659.243', 'end': '661.923', 'text': 'radius around that point, then'}, {'start': '662.003', 'end': '664.803', 'text': 'shuffle that carbon location to basically'}, {'start': '664.803', 'end': '666.403', 'text': 'bolster your data set. Get a lot more'}, {'start': '666.403', 'end': '669.203', 'text': 'data because that that 900'}, {'start': '670.243', 'end': '673.123', 'text': 'observations is not enough really to'}, {'start': '673.123', 'end': '675.243', 'text': 'do this type of work. So we come up with'}, {'start': '675.283', 'end': '677.283', 'text': 'kind of a simulated data set in that way'}, {'start': '677.923', 'end': '679.843', 'text': 'and train your own forest and make'}, {'start': '679.923', 'end': '682.683', 'text': 'predictions. And a benefit of doing'}, {'start': '682.683', 'end': '685.443', 'text': 'that is that you actually get a'}, {'start': '685.443', 'end': '687.043', 'text': 'variable importance coming out of.'}, {'start': '689.283', 'end': '691.923', 'text': 'out of your random forest model, and you'}, {'start': '691.923', 'end': '693.363', 'text': 'know, make some interpretations from'}, {'start': '693.363', 'end': '695.763', 'text': 'that. So the second method is'}, {'start': '695.763', 'end': '698.483', 'text': 'convolutional neural networks, and'}, {'start': '699.123', 'end': '701.523', 'text': "so it's that method we've actually"}, {'start': '701.523', 'end': '704.243', 'text': 'trained one neural'}, {'start': '704.243', 'end': '706.643', 'text': 'network to generate soil carbon'}, {'start': '706.643', 'end': '709.603', 'text': 'distributions by grouping soil'}, {'start': '709.603', 'end': '711.643', 'text': 'estimates into quantile ten different'}, {'start': '711.643', 'end': '714.443', 'text': 'quantiles, and then we train a second'}, {'start': '714.443', 'end': '717.083', 'text': 'completely separate neural network.'}, {'start': '717.923', 'end': '719.843', 'text': 'On those generated distributions. So that'}, {'start': '719.843', 'end': '722.163', 'text': 'second neural network, it never sees the'}, {'start': '722.163', 'end': '725.003', 'text': "truth data and it's what's used to make"}, {'start': '725.003', 'end': '727.923', 'text': 'the new soil fairing predictions. And'}, {'start': '728.403', 'end': '731.283', 'text': 'neural networks are really good'}, {'start': '731.363', 'end': '733.563', 'text': 'for thinking about spatial data and'}, {'start': '733.563', 'end': '734.923', 'text': "finding spatial patterns. They're"}, {'start': '734.923', 'end': '737.323', 'text': 'originally used for looking at,'}, {'start': '738.083', 'end': '740.323', 'text': 'you know, patterns in images and'}, {'start': '740.843', 'end': '743.843', 'text': "connections in images. So that's why"}, {'start': '743.843', 'end': '745.403', 'text': 'we would think this method would work'}, {'start': '745.443', 'end': '748.243', 'text': 'well for soil fairing. There are'}, {'start': '748.243', 'end': '751.123', 'text': 'spatial patterns, and then the'}, {'start': '751.123', 'end': '753.403', 'text': 'third method is transformers.'}, {'start': '753.523', 'end': '756.323', 'text': "So that's a newer method that"}, {'start': '756.323', 'end': '758.963', 'text': "we're developing, and basically"}, {'start': '758.963', 'end': '761.043', 'text': 'training data on sequences'}, {'start': '761.843', 'end': '764.243', 'text': 'to generate kind of the next value in the'}, {'start': '764.243', 'end': '767.083', 'text': 'sequence. And this what'}, {'start': '767.083', 'end': '768.843', 'text': 'transformers are good for is really'}, {'start': '768.843', 'end': '770.803', 'text': 'taking advantage of time series data'}, {'start': '772.083', 'end': '775.083', 'text': 'and be, you know, a lot of things. that'}, {'start': '775.083', 'end': '777.603', 'text': 'we know vary with and influence soil'}, {'start': '777.603', 'end': '780.163', 'text': 'carbon, our time series, climate data,'}, {'start': '780.483', 'end': '783.363', 'text': 'Landsat, spectral values, all that. So we'}, {'start': '783.363', 'end': '786.163', 'text': 'can pair those data with a soil'}, {'start': '786.163', 'end': '789.003', 'text': 'carbon estimate for observation for a'}, {'start': '789.003', 'end': '791.883', 'text': 'location and kind of predict the next'}, {'start': '791.883', 'end': '792.883', 'text': 'sequence.'}, {'start': '794.963', 'end': '797.363', 'text': "And yeah, so that's the"}, {'start': '797.363', 'end': '798.603', 'text': 'transformers model and'}, {'start': '800.963', 'end': '802.483', 'text': "I'll jump straight into some of the"}, {'start': '802.643', 'end': '804.443', 'text': 'results from the different methods. Sorry'}, {'start': '804.563', 'end': '806.843', 'text': "it's hard to see, but this is from the"}, {'start': '806.963', 'end': '809.443', 'text': 'random forest method. So what I was'}, {'start': '809.443', 'end': '811.923', 'text': 'trying to do this was look at'}, {'start': '812.803', 'end': '814.363', 'text': 'different areas of the island and'}, {'start': '814.363', 'end': '817.363', 'text': 'different kind of driver groupings.'}, {'start': '817.763', 'end': '820.723', 'text': 'So I grouped the the variables'}, {'start': '820.723', 'end': '823.123', 'text': 'into biological, physical and climate'}, {'start': '823.123', 'end': '826.083', 'text': "drivers, and that's what I was looking"}, {'start': '826.083', 'end': '828.803', 'text': 'at in the variable importance. So we have'}, {'start': '828.803', 'end': '829.883', 'text': 'our carbon predictions.'}, {'start': '832.963', 'end': '835.683', 'text': 'It stops here and I just put two'}, {'start': '835.683', 'end': '838.323', 'text': 'examples from what we'}, {'start': '838.323', 'end': '841.123', 'text': 'saw in terms of'}, {'start': '841.363', 'end': '843.043', 'text': 'you know, these are lower carbon'}, {'start': '843.043', 'end': '845.323', 'text': 'predicted areas from that'}, {'start': '847.123', 'end': '849.763', 'text': 'random forest method and the'}, {'start': '849.763', 'end': '852.643', 'text': 'driver variables we saw on the lower end'}, {'start': '852.883', 'end': '854.643', 'text': 'that was just a climate driver.'}, {'start': '855.923', 'end': '858.043', 'text': 'Medium, but still very low carbon'}, {'start': '858.043', 'end': '859.763', 'text': 'predictions. Those were predicted by'}, {'start': '860.003', 'end': '862.323', 'text': 'biological and finite and half and half.'}, {'start': '862.963', 'end': '865.123', 'text': 'And then as we go a little bit higher in'}, {'start': '865.123', 'end': '868.003', 'text': 'soil carbon, we see some of the influence'}, {'start': '868.003', 'end': '870.243', 'text': 'from the physical topographic drivers and'}, {'start': '871.043', 'end': '873.323', 'text': 'then compare that to the Gila side of the'}, {'start': '873.363', 'end': '876.323', 'text': "island where we've got some higher carbon"}, {'start': '876.323', 'end': '879.123', 'text': "stocks and it's getting a lot more"}, {'start': '879.123', 'end': '881.083', 'text': 'influence from the physical drivers on'}, {'start': '881.083', 'end': '883.363', 'text': 'that side of the island. So you know,'}, {'start': '883.363', 'end': '885.603', 'text': 'this is just an example to show that we'}, {'start': '885.603', 'end': '887.683', 'text': 'can actually make some interpretations'}, {'start': '887.723', 'end': '890.163', 'text': 'from machine learning models'}, {'start': '890.323', 'end': '892.883', 'text': 'and get at what is'}, {'start': '892.923', 'end': '894.963', 'text': 'driving carbon in different regions of'}, {'start': '894.963', 'end': '897.683', 'text': 'the island. And one more example of'}, {'start': '897.683', 'end': '900.643', 'text': 'that is just, you'}, {'start': '900.643', 'end': '903.443', 'text': 'know, we have the Kupala region with very'}, {'start': '903.523', 'end': '904.963', 'text': 'high soil carbon and.'}, {'start': '909.123', 'end': '911.843', 'text': 'And so we can see in that high soil'}, {'start': '911.843', 'end': '913.923', 'text': 'carbon region that there are some lower'}, {'start': '914.643', 'end': '916.883', 'text': 'carbon estimates and those lower carbon'}, {'start': '916.883', 'end': '918.963', 'text': 'estimates are actually driven by more by'}, {'start': '919.003', 'end': '921.523', 'text': 'climate and biological, whereas the high'}, {'start': '921.523', 'end': '924.203', 'text': 'carbon areas again have that'}, {'start': '924.203', 'end': '926.563', 'text': 'physical and so topography potentially.'}, {'start': '929.363', 'end': '930.643', 'text': "Yeah. So that's the ram and forest"}, {'start': '930.643', 'end': '933.403', 'text': "method. I'm going to hop straight into"}, {'start': '933.443', 'end': '936.243', 'text': 'the convolutional neural network and'}, {'start': '936.363', 'end': '939.363', 'text': 'show some results from that. So as I'}, {'start': '939.363', 'end': '942.163', 'text': 'said earlier, we grouped the predictions'}, {'start': '942.163', 'end': '945.123', 'text': 'in 10 quantiles and so this'}, {'start': '945.123', 'end': '947.763', 'text': 'is measured versus predicted soil carbon'}, {'start': '949.843', 'end': '952.083', 'text': 'and this is for each quantile. So the'}, {'start': '952.083', 'end': '955.043', 'text': 'lower quantiles were not predicted as'}, {'start': '955.043', 'end': '957.283', 'text': 'well using that next method,'}, {'start': '958.003', 'end': '960.483', 'text': 'but the higher ones were predicted pretty'}, {'start': '960.483', 'end': '963.363', 'text': 'well, so. To me, this'}, {'start': '963.363', 'end': '965.563', 'text': 'shows the promise of the convolutional'}, {'start': '965.563', 'end': '968.163', 'text': 'neural networks to actually find those'}, {'start': '968.163', 'end': '970.963', 'text': 'patterns in the spatial data and be able'}, {'start': '970.963', 'end': '973.643', 'text': 'to predict the higher soil carbon values'}, {'start': '973.643', 'end': '975.363', 'text': 'that we actually have in these variants.'}, {'start': '977.843', 'end': '979.923', 'text': 'And you know, then we can make maps from'}, {'start': '980.123', 'end': '982.563', 'text': 'from those data. So here is one example.'}, {'start': '982.563', 'end': '984.563', 'text': 'This is from the median quantile'}, {'start': '984.563', 'end': '986.363', 'text': 'prediction and.'}, {'start': '989.123', 'end': '990.963', 'text': 'Yeah, you can see some of the the regions'}, {'start': '990.963', 'end': '993.283', 'text': 'that are higher and lower soil carbon'}, {'start': '993.763', 'end': '995.923', 'text': 'and think about some of the drivers in'}, {'start': '995.923', 'end': '998.563', 'text': 'those areas. So we zoom in on'}, {'start': '999.283', 'end': '1001.843', 'text': 'kind of you know that same area of Big'}, {'start': '1001.843', 'end': '1004.483', 'text': 'Island I was talking about thinking about'}, {'start': '1004.803', 'end': '1007.443', 'text': 'those extreme climate gradients over here'}, {'start': '1008.003', 'end': '1010.643', 'text': 'and those'}, {'start': '1010.963', 'end': '1013.603', 'text': 'that high rainfall, super high biomass'}, {'start': '1013.603', 'end': '1016.163', 'text': 'manifests in this soil sub order.'}, {'start': '1016.803', 'end': '1019.003', 'text': "the wet in septic sols, and there's a"}, {'start': '1019.003', 'end': '1021.843', 'text': 'high so urban predictions compared,'}, {'start': '1022.323', 'end': '1025.043', 'text': 'say, to accept the salt. All right, sorry'}, {'start': '1025.683', 'end': '1028.323', 'text': 'the the over here. That is the dry'}, {'start': '1029.203', 'end': '1032.083', 'text': "so it's, you know, a lot of lower so,"}, {'start': '1032.203', 'end': '1034.403', 'text': 'and then on the slopes of my um'}, {'start': '1035.603', 'end': '1036.843', 'text': "again, that's very high, so."}, {'start': '1038.403', 'end': '1039.723', 'text': 'So just doing some visual'}, {'start': '1039.723', 'end': '1042.723', 'text': 'interpretations. Um This seems'}, {'start': '1042.723', 'end': '1045.323', 'text': 'like a promising method. And that leave'}, {'start': '1045.323', 'end': '1048.003', 'text': 'one out cross validation seemed to'}, {'start': '1048.003', 'end': '1048.883', 'text': 'confirm that as well.'}, {'start': '1050.883', 'end': '1053.603', 'text': 'So I do want to get into the transformers'}, {'start': '1053.603', 'end': '1054.243', 'text': 'at this point.'}, {'start': '1060.563', 'end': '1062.323', 'text': 'So with the transformer method,'}, {'start': '1064.883', 'end': '1067.363', 'text': 'we have this set of'}, {'start': '1068.003', 'end': '1070.723', 'text': 'data. So we have spectral data from'}, {'start': '1070.723', 'end': '1073.363', 'text': 'Landsat. So this is blue-green, red, near'}, {'start': '1073.363', 'end': '1075.923', 'text': 'infrared. We have our climate data'}, {'start': '1076.643', 'end': '1079.523', 'text': 'terrain and then stick a soil'}, {'start': '1079.523', 'end': '1082.043', 'text': 'carbon on to to all of that for a'}, {'start': '1082.043', 'end': '1084.963', 'text': 'location. So this is 1'}, {'start': '1084.963', 'end': '1087.323', 'text': 'sequence of data that goes into the'}, {'start': '1087.323', 'end': '1090.283', 'text': 'transformer model. If'}, {'start': '1090.283', 'end': '1092.803', 'text': 'we do that many times, this is what we'}, {'start': '1092.803', 'end': '1095.123', 'text': 'come up with. Basically'}, {'start': '1096.803', 'end': '1099.203', 'text': 'we use this the sequence'}, {'start': '1099.763', 'end': '1101.723', 'text': 'the next in sequence is predicted for the'}, {'start': '1101.723', 'end': '1103.923', 'text': 'trans by the transformer model.'}, {'start': '1104.683', 'end': '1107.363', 'text': 'Then we rip off this soil carbon estimate'}, {'start': '1107.843', 'end': '1110.123', 'text': 'before predicting the next, because we'}, {'start': '1110.123', 'end': '1112.883', 'text': "don't want to carry around our our carbon"}, {'start': '1112.963', 'end': '1115.163', 'text': 'with us. We want it to be making the'}, {'start': '1115.163', 'end': '1116.243', 'text': 'predictions each time.'}, {'start': '1118.003', 'end': '1118.503', 'text': 'And'}, {'start': '1121.043', 'end': '1124.003', 'text': 'so in addition to getting a soil carbon'}, {'start': '1124.323', 'end': '1126.483', 'text': 'estimate out of that transformers model,'}, {'start': '1126.483', 'end': '1128.003', 'text': "you're predicting every single one of"}, {'start': '1128.003', 'end': '1129.443', 'text': 'those variables that went into that'}, {'start': '1129.443', 'end': '1131.763', 'text': 'sequence. So we have'}, {'start': '1132.083', 'end': '1134.803', 'text': 'as one example, vapor pressure deficit'}, {'start': '1134.803', 'end': '1136.163', 'text': 'and solar radiation.'}, {'start': '1138.483', 'end': '1140.443', 'text': 'You know, transformer is good at getting'}, {'start': '1140.443', 'end': '1142.323', 'text': 'that time component. So the cyclical'}, {'start': '1142.483', 'end': '1145.163', 'text': 'components of this is vapor pressure'}, {'start': '1145.163', 'end': '1147.803', 'text': 'deficit over here, other things that you'}, {'start': '1147.843', 'end': '1149.923', 'text': 'know influence above ground and below'}, {'start': '1149.923', 'end': '1152.843', 'text': 'ground carbon. Same with,'}, {'start': '1152.963', 'end': '1154.603', 'text': 'you know, the actual risk is predicted'}, {'start': '1154.723', 'end': '1156.323', 'text': 'soil radiation on that side.'}, {'start': '1159.363', 'end': '1160.883', 'text': 'So how does it do with predicting soil'}, {'start': '1160.883', 'end': '1162.883', 'text': 'carbon?Well, we only have'}, {'start': '1164.003', 'end': '1166.003', 'text': 'at this point one point in time soil'}, {'start': '1166.083', 'end': '1167.603', 'text': "carbon estimate, although we're working"}, {'start': '1167.603', 'end': '1170.163', 'text': 'on bolstering our data set with multiple'}, {'start': '1170.243', 'end': '1172.403', 'text': 'data points in time to see if it actually'}, {'start': '1173.123', 'end': '1175.923', 'text': 'can start predicting those. But it does,'}, {'start': '1175.923', 'end': '1178.723', 'text': "and you can see it's predicting cycles"}, {'start': '1179.043', 'end': '1181.843', 'text': 'of carbon percent for an area. And'}, {'start': '1182.803', 'end': '1184.563', 'text': "we can debate whether or not that's"}, {'start': '1184.643', 'end': '1187.203', 'text': 'something we believe if carbon is'}, {'start': '1187.203', 'end': '1189.963', 'text': 'changing in that way. But consider,'}, {'start': '1190.523', 'end': '1193.283', 'text': 'you know, the what is happening, dry and'}, {'start': '1193.283', 'end': '1196.203', 'text': 'wedding cycles, what happens seasonally,'}, {'start': '1196.203', 'end': '1198.203', 'text': 'with microbial activity, that type of'}, {'start': '1198.203', 'end': '1200.443', 'text': 'thing, and perhaps soil carbon is'}, {'start': '1200.443', 'end': '1202.763', 'text': 'changing throughout time'}, {'start': '1203.243', 'end': '1206.043', 'text': 'for an area. And then with'}, {'start': '1206.043', 'end': '1208.763', 'text': 'our cross-validation results,'}, {'start': '1212.043', 'end': '1213.523', 'text': "this is kind of what we're seeing in"}, {'start': '1213.523', 'end': '1216.363', 'text': 'terms of across all the islands, point'}, {'start': '1216.363', 'end': '1219.003', 'text': 'five, nine squared. And'}, {'start': '1221.483', 'end': '1223.523', 'text': 'so it seems to be, you know, working well'}, {'start': '1223.523', 'end': '1224.843', 'text': 'at predicting soil carrying here.'}, {'start': '1227.563', 'end': '1229.003', 'text': 'We wanted to do a little bit more'}, {'start': '1229.003', 'end': '1231.403', 'text': 'vigorous cross validation at that point.'}, {'start': '1231.403', 'end': '1234.323', 'text': "So we they don't need one island"}, {'start': '1234.323', 'end': '1237.003', 'text': "out cross validation. So a whole island's"}, {'start': '1237.003', 'end': '1238.923', 'text': 'worth of data and then predicted on that.'}, {'start': '1239.323', 'end': '1241.963', 'text': 'And this is for a and it worked'}, {'start': '1242.523', 'end': '1245.003', 'text': 'very well. Point 6, 3 R'}, {'start': '1245.003', 'end': '1247.923', 'text': 'squared. So you know, from'}, {'start': '1247.923', 'end': '1250.843', 'text': 'both of those methods, it seems that this'}, {'start': '1250.843', 'end': '1253.483', 'text': 'transformer is working for predicting'}, {'start': '1253.483', 'end': '1253.983', 'text': 'soil occur.'}, {'start': '1257.203', 'end': '1259.963', 'text': 'Zooming in on a test region, we'}, {'start': '1259.963', 'end': '1262.003', 'text': 'just decided to look at this area that'}, {'start': '1262.003', 'end': '1263.763', 'text': 'has kind of a mosaic of different land'}, {'start': '1263.763', 'end': '1266.563', 'text': 'uses and think about'}, {'start': '1266.563', 'end': '1268.523', 'text': 'what might be happening over time'}, {'start': '1269.363', 'end': '1271.643', 'text': 'above ground and below ground in terms of'}, {'start': '1271.723', 'end': '1274.683', 'text': 'carbon cycling. And I'}, {'start': '1274.683', 'end': '1276.123', 'text': 'have a video. See if we can'}, {'start': '1279.523', 'end': '1281.163', 'text': 'get it. All'}, {'start': '1283.803', 'end': '1286.763', 'text': 'right. So I think you just'}, {'start': '1286.763', 'end': '1289.563', 'text': 'move the window to the screen one'}, {'start': '1290.043', 'end': '1292.923', 'text': 'should work. Then you have'}, {'start': '1293.003', 'end': '1296.003', 'text': 'to. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah'}, {'start': '1297.043', 'end': '1298.523', 'text': 'Yes, without hearing on the Zoom.'}, {'start': '1303.603', 'end': '1305.963', 'text': "ok So what we're getting here is actual"}, {'start': '1305.963', 'end': '1308.163', 'text': 'soil carbon predictions in time. I know'}, {'start': '1308.163', 'end': '1309.483', 'text': "you can't see it that well, but"}, {'start': '1311.323', 'end': '1314.323', 'text': 'lower to higher soil carbon from, you'}, {'start': '1314.323', 'end': '1315.883', 'text': 'know, purple to yellow.'}, {'start': '1319.563', 'end': '1322.563', 'text': 'Yeah, so this is across units. So this'}, {'start': '1322.563', 'end': '1324.323', 'text': 'is just to show kind of the promise of'}, {'start': '1324.323', 'end': '1326.563', 'text': 'this method. It actually look at'}, {'start': '1327.163', 'end': '1329.963', 'text': 'patterns potentially in soil carbon over'}, {'start': '1329.963', 'end': '1331.323', 'text': 'time and we can be'}, {'start': '1333.003', 'end': '1335.763', 'text': 'lower carbon areas, and'}, {'start': '1335.803', 'end': '1338.283', 'text': 'here and here different land use,'}, {'start': '1338.603', 'end': '1340.523', 'text': 'higher carbon areas with the higher'}, {'start': '1340.603', 'end': '1341.523', 'text': 'background.'}, {'start': '1347.003', 'end': '1348.443', 'text': 'So from that. Yeah, this'}, {'start': '1359.453', 'end': '1362.133', 'text': 'is just for two thousand and twenty-four.'}, {'start': '1362.933', 'end': '1365.653', 'text': 'So from that um, yeah, we can start'}, {'start': '1365.653', 'end': '1368.203', 'text': 'seeing our actualyou know,'}, {'start': '1368.203', 'end': '1370.603', 'text': 'spatial patterns or patterns in space.'}, {'start': '1370.843', 'end': '1372.923', 'text': 'There are patterns in time, and maybe'}, {'start': '1372.923', 'end': '1375.723', 'text': 'this is what we expect. So. You know'}, {'start': '1375.723', 'end': '1378.283', 'text': 'this is a very'}, {'start': '1378.683', 'end': '1381.643', 'text': 'new method in development. So this is'}, {'start': '1381.643', 'end': '1383.083', 'text': "where we're at with it at this point,"}, {'start': '1383.083', 'end': '1384.883', 'text': 'just kind of looking at testing some'}, {'start': '1384.883', 'end': '1385.883', 'text': 'different regions. Um,'}, {'start': '1387.883', 'end': '1390.443', 'text': "and trying to pick out what's happening"}, {'start': '1390.443', 'end': '1392.123', 'text': 'over time with with so'}, {'start': '1393.243', 'end': '1395.883', 'text': 'but they seem to be reasonable patterns'}, {'start': '1396.283', 'end': '1398.203', 'text': 'that are really following some things we'}, {'start': '1398.203', 'end': '1400.043', 'text': 'know about drying fighting cycles over'}, {'start': '1400.043', 'end': '1400.543', 'text': 'time.'}, {'start': '1402.843', 'end': '1403.483', 'text': 'And'}, {'start': '1406.683', 'end': '1408.363', 'text': 'I think, yeah, this is basically the same'}, {'start': '1408.523', 'end': '1410.443', 'text': "showing the same pattern. But just it's a"}, {'start': '1410.523', 'end': '1413.203', 'text': 'the mean soil carbon for a particular'}, {'start': '1413.323', 'end': '1413.823', 'text': 'location.'}, {'start': '1416.603', 'end': '1419.003', 'text': 'So showing some promise in time series'}, {'start': '1419.003', 'end': '1421.963', 'text': 'prediction, andNow'}, {'start': '1422.043', 'end': '1423.723', 'text': 'with that, just leave you with a few'}, {'start': '1423.723', 'end': '1425.963', 'text': 'takeaways of this work so far.'}, {'start': '1427.483', 'end': '1429.323', 'text': 'We have some deep learning approaches'}, {'start': '1429.323', 'end': '1431.003', 'text': 'that are effectively predicting'}, {'start': '1431.003', 'end': '1433.083', 'text': 'generating soil carbon distributions in'}, {'start': '1433.323', 'end': '1434.523', 'text': 'space and time. We'}, {'start': '1436.123', 'end': '1438.763', 'text': 'can actually do interpretation of the'}, {'start': '1439.323', 'end': '1441.643', 'text': "supposed black box methods that we're"}, {'start': '1441.643', 'end': '1444.363', 'text': "using. If it's possible, just have to be"}, {'start': '1444.363', 'end': '1446.163', 'text': 'creative about the questions you ask in'}, {'start': '1446.163', 'end': '1447.203', 'text': 'the way that you ask them. Umm'}, {'start': '1449.243', 'end': '1451.243', 'text': 'And you know, compared to some of those'}, {'start': '1451.243', 'end': '1454.203', 'text': 'process based models that were used'}, {'start': '1454.203', 'end': '1456.923', 'text': 'in the past, we can actually get better'}, {'start': '1456.923', 'end': '1459.203', 'text': 'carbon predictions in these high carbon'}, {'start': '1459.243', 'end': '1460.883', 'text': 'areas with these deep learning methods'}, {'start': '1461.803', 'end': '1462.683', 'text': 'compared to those models.'}, {'start': '1465.163', 'end': '1467.163', 'text': "So that's all I have for you and I'm"}, {'start': '1467.323', 'end': '1468.923', 'text': 'happy to take questions. Thank'}, {'start': '1477.143', 'end': '1478.503', 'text': "you. Well, we'd like to open the floor"}, {'start': '1478.503', 'end': '1480.863', 'text': 'for the Q&A as well as anybody on Zoom'}, {'start': '1480.863', 'end': '1482.143', 'text': 'that have questions.'}, {'start': '1489.403', 'end': '1490.523', 'text': 'I was wondering'}]