Stock Picks: RoboSense (2498) | Economic impact of tariffs begins to surface| 2-5-2025
輝立証券集團 Phillip Securities Group
[{'start': '6.566', 'end': '7.566', 'text': 'Hello everyone'}, {'start': '7.566', 'end': '10.333', 'text': 'welcome to the Market Opening Bell on Friday'}, {'start': '10.333', 'end': '11.200', 'text': 'May 2'}, {'start': '11.300', 'end': '14.766', 'text': 'Let’s review the Hong Kong stock market’s performance on Wednesday'}, {'start': '14.766', 'end': '16.666', 'text': 'Hong Kong stocks opened higher'}, {'start': '16.666', 'end': '18.266', 'text': 'tracking Wall Street’s gains'}, {'start': '18.266', 'end': '26.900', 'text': 'The Hang Seng Index opened 30 points up but dipped 159 points to 21848 in early trading'}, {'start': '26.900', 'end': '27.766', 'text': 'In the afternoon'}, {'start': '27.766', 'end': '32.333', 'text': 'it rose 121 points to 22129'}, {'start': '32.333', 'end': '35.000', 'text': 'The index closed up 111 points'}, {'start': '35.000', 'end': '36.400', 'text': 'or 0.5%,'}, {'start': '36.600', 'end': '39.866', 'text': 'at 22,119'}, {'start': '40.133', 'end': '42.400', 'text': 'The H-Share Index gained 8 points'}, {'start': '42.400', 'end': '43.666', 'text': 'or 0.1%,'}, {'start': '43.700', 'end': '45.766', 'text': 'to 8,076'}, {'start': '45.766', 'end': '49.166', 'text': 'while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 67 points'}, {'start': '49.166', 'end': '50.366', 'text': 'or 1.3%,'}, {'start': '50.866', 'end': '52.866', 'text': 'to 5,087'}, {'start': '52.900', 'end': '58.600', 'text': 'Total market turnover was HKD 201.5 billion'}, {'start': '58.866', 'end': '63.933', 'text': 'up from HKD 177.6 billion the previous day'}, {'start': '64.100', 'end': '65.300', 'text': 'Technical Analysis:'}, {'start': '65.300', 'end': '72.766', 'text': 'The Hang Seng Index remains within its short-term range of 21800–22,300'}, {'start': '72.900', 'end': '76.066', 'text': 'but technical signals show slight improvement'}, {'start': '76.066', 'end': '78.300', 'text': 'A small bullish candle appeared'}, {'start': '78.300', 'end': '82.366', 'text': 'the 9-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 55'}, {'start': '82.400', 'end': '85.566', 'text': 'and turnover exceeded HKD 200 billion'}, {'start': '85.933', 'end': '86.533', 'text': 'Overall'}, {'start': '86.533', 'end': '88.433', 'text': 'the market awaits a breakout'}, {'start': '88.666', 'end': '94.666', 'text': 'Mainland Chinese markets showed mixed performance on the last trading day of April'}, {'start': '94.666', 'end': '97.200', 'text': 'The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7 points'}, {'start': '97.200', 'end': '98.400', 'text': 'or 0.2%,'}, {'start': '98.400', 'end': '101.133', 'text': 'to 3,279'}, {'start': '101.133', 'end': '104.033', 'text': 'The Shenzhen Component Index rose 50 points'}, {'start': '104.033', 'end': '105.433', 'text': 'or 0.5%,'}, {'start': '105.500', 'end': '107.566', 'text': 'to 9,899'}, {'start': '107.966', 'end': '112.733', 'text': 'Combined turnover for both markets was RMB 1.169 trillion'}, {'start': '112.933', 'end': '117.266', 'text': 'up RMB 147.2 billion from the previous day'}, {'start': '117.533', 'end': '122.500', 'text': 'The RMB central parity rate rose for the fifth consecutive day'}, {'start': '122.500', 'end': '127.433', 'text': 'hitting a three-week high at 7.2014 against the USD'}, {'start': '127.466', 'end': '130.033', 'text': 'up 15 pips from the prior day'}, {'start': '130.166', 'end': '133.966', 'text': 'Onshore and offshore RMB spot rates strengthened'}, {'start': '133.966', 'end': '137.166', 'text': 'reaching 7.26 in early trading'}, {'start': '137.166', 'end': '144.000', 'text': 'The National Bureau of Statistics reported April’s Manufacturing PMI at 49'}, {'start': '144.066', 'end': '146.666', 'text': 'down 1.5 points from March'}, {'start': '146.666', 'end': '150.566', 'text': 'ending two months of expansion and entering contraction'}, {'start': '150.733', 'end': '155.033', 'text': 'The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4'}, {'start': '155.133', 'end': '161.533', 'text': 'above market expectations of 49.7 but down 0.8 points from March'}, {'start': '161.533', 'end': '166.133', 'text': 'marking a three-month low and signaling slower manufacturing growth'}, {'start': '166.133', 'end': '170.100', 'text': 'US tariff hikes impacted external demand'}, {'start': '170.100', 'end': '176.333', 'text': 'with new export orders falling into contraction for the first time since August 2023'}, {'start': '176.500', 'end': '180.666', 'text': 'Weak external demand led to soft overall demand'}, {'start': '181.000', 'end': '185.466', 'text': 'with the new orders index barely above the neutral mark'}, {'start': '185.533', 'end': '187.300', 'text': 'Employment contracted again'}, {'start': '187.300', 'end': '188.866', 'text': 'prices remained subdued'}, {'start': '188.866', 'end': '191.900', 'text': 'and manufacturers’ purchasing appetite weakened'}, {'start': '191.900', 'end': '195.733', 'text': 'with market optimism notably fading'}, {'start': '195.800', 'end': '199.866', 'text': 'The official Non-Manufacturing PMI was 50.4'}, {'start': '200.000', 'end': '202.066', 'text': 'below the expected 50.6'}, {'start': '202.066', 'end': '207.200', 'text': 'down 0.4 points from March but still above the neutral mark'}, {'start': '207.200', 'end': '207.533', 'text': 'Now'}, {'start': '207.533', 'end': '211.533', 'text': 'let’s look at April sales results for some automakers:'}, {'start': '211.633', 'end': '212.433', 'text': '* BYD (01211):'}, {'start': '212.433', 'end': '218.766', 'text': 'Sold approximately 380100 new energy vehicles (NEVs) in April'}, {'start': '218.766', 'end': '221.700', 'text': 'up 21.3% year-on-year'}, {'start': '221.700', 'end': '223.700', 'text': 'flat month-on-month'}, {'start': '223.700', 'end': '228.066', 'text': 'January–April sales totaled 1.38 million units'}, {'start': '228.066', 'end': '230.533', 'text': 'up 47% year-on-year'}, {'start': '230.533', 'end': '235.833', 'text': 'achieving 25% of its 5.5 million-unit annual target'}, {'start': '235.966', 'end': '240.933', 'text': '* Leapmotor (9863): Delivered 41039 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '240.933', 'end': '246.800', 'text': 'up over 173% year-on-year and 10.6% month-on-month'}, {'start': '246.800', 'end': '253.266', 'text': 'the only domestic new force automaker to exceed 40000 monthly deliveries'}, {'start': '255.100', 'end': '261.166', 'text': 'January–April deliveries totaled 128591 units'}, {'start': '261.166', 'end': '269.366', 'text': 'with an annual target of 500000–600,000 units'}, {'start': '269.566', 'end': '273.733', 'text': '* XPeng (9868): Delivered 35045 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '273.733', 'end': '278.966', 'text': 'up 273% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month'}, {'start': '278.966', 'end': '283.466', 'text': 'maintaining over 30000 monthly deliveries for six months'}, {'start': '283.466', 'end': '289.300', 'text': 'January–April deliveries totaled 129053 units'}, {'start': '289.300', 'end': '292.200', 'text': 'up 313% year-on-year'}, {'start': '292.200', 'end': '298.133', 'text': 'reaching 17% of its 760000-unit annual target'}, {'start': '299.266', 'end': '303.300', 'text': '* Li Auto (02015): Delivered 33939 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '303.300', 'end': '309.333', 'text': 'up 31.6% year-on-year but down 7.5% month-on-month'}, {'start': '309.333', 'end': '315.300', 'text': 'January–April deliveries totaled 126803 units'}, {'start': '315.300', 'end': '321.766', 'text': 'achieving 18.1% of its 700000-unit annual target'}, {'start': '321.933', 'end': '326.266', 'text': '* Xiaomi Auto: Delivered over 28000 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '326.266', 'end': '328.866', 'text': 'roughly flat month-on-month'}, {'start': '328.866', 'end': '333.466', 'text': 'January–April deliveries exceeded 97000 units'}, {'start': '333.466', 'end': '339.233', 'text': 'reaching 32.3% of its 300000-unit annual target'}, {'start': '339.600', 'end': '344.100', 'text': '* NIO (9866): Delivered 23900 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '344.100', 'end': '349.300', 'text': 'up 53% year-on-year and 58.9% month-on-month'}, {'start': '349.300', 'end': '354.733', 'text': 'January–April deliveries totaled 65994 units'}, {'start': '354.733', 'end': '357.866', 'text': 'up 44.5% year-on-year'}, {'start': '357.866', 'end': '363.166', 'text': 'achieving 15% of its 440000-unit annual target'}, {'start': '363.333', 'end': '364.466', 'text': '* Geely Auto (0175):'}, {'start': '364.466', 'end': '369.366', 'text': 'Sold approximately 234100 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '369.400', 'end': '374.366', 'text': 'up 53% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month'}, {'start': '374.366', 'end': '383.566', 'text': 'Its NEV brand Zeekr sold 13700 units'}, {'start': '383.566', 'end': '384.933', 'text': 'down 15%,'}, {'start': '385.266', 'end': '391.366', 'text': 'while Lynk & Co sold 27600 units, up 47%.'}, {'start': '391.666', 'end': '399.466', 'text': 'January–April sales totaled 937900 units, up 49% year-on-year'}, {'start': '399.466', 'end': '406.166', 'text': 'achieving 34.6% of its 2.71 million-unit annual target'}, {'start': '406.266', 'end': '407.633', 'text': '* Great Wall Motor (2333):'}, {'start': '407.633', 'end': '412.166', 'text': 'Sold approximately 100000 vehicles in April'}, {'start': '412.166', 'end': '417.366', 'text': 'up 5.55% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month'}, {'start': '418.333', 'end': '420.833', 'text': 'NEV sales were'}, {'start': '421.100', 'end': '424.066', 'text': '* 28,813 units'}, {'start': '424.066', 'end': '428.866', 'text': 'and overseas sales were 32165 units'}, {'start': '428.866', 'end': '436.466', 'text': 'January–April sales totaled 356900 units, down 3.6% year-on-year'}, {'start': '436.466', 'end': '441.466', 'text': 'achieving 8.9% of its 4 million-unit annual target'}, {'start': '441.633', 'end': '445.466', 'text': 'Let’s review the US stock market performance over the past two days'}, {'start': '445.466', 'end': '446.333', 'text': 'On Wednesday'}, {'start': '446.333', 'end': '449.733', 'text': 'markets were highly volatile due to negative US'}, {'start': '449.733', 'end': '452.066', 'text': 'economic growth in the first quarter'}, {'start': '452.066', 'end': '458.433', 'text': 'The S&P 500 Index fell over 2% at one point but closed up 0.1%.'}, {'start': '458.900', 'end': '464.366', 'text': 'The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted nearly 800 points during the session'}, {'start': '464.366', 'end': '468.766', 'text': 'dipping below 40000, but ended up 141 points'}, {'start': '468.766', 'end': '474.866', 'text': 'One reason for the rebound from lows was a report from Chinese media stating that the US'}, {'start': '474.866', 'end': '479.700', 'text': 'had proactively contacted China to negotiate tariff issues'}, {'start': '479.700', 'end': '482.400', 'text': 'US stocks continued to rise on Thursday'}, {'start': '482.400', 'end': '488.900', 'text': 'with the Dow and S&P 500 marking their eighth consecutive day of gains'}, {'start': '488.900', 'end': '494.833', 'text': 'the longest streak for the Dow in a year and for the S&P 500 since August last year'}, {'start': '495.066', 'end': '501.733', 'text': 'Strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta alleviated market concerns about AI spending'}, {'start': '501.766', 'end': '504.300', 'text': 'boosting the Nasdaq’s performance'}, {'start': '504.400', 'end': '508.400', 'text': 'The Dow rose as much as 430 points to 41'}, {'start': '508.400', 'end': '515.466', 'text': '099 but closed at 40752, up 83 points or 0.2%.'}, {'start': '516.000', 'end': '519.400', 'text': 'The S&P 500 broke through 5,600'}, {'start': '519.400', 'end': '524.733', 'text': 'closing at 5604, up 35 points or 0.6%.'}, {'start': '525.433', 'end': '531.833', 'text': 'The Nasdaq surged nearly 3% at one point but ended at 17710'}, {'start': '532.433', 'end': '535.766', 'text': 'up 264 points or 1.5%.'}, {'start': '536.366', 'end': '537.833', 'text': 'The Golden Dragon Index'}, {'start': '537.833', 'end': '539.966', 'text': 'reflecting Chinese concept stocks'}, {'start': '539.966', 'end': '545.566', 'text': 'rose 14 points or 0.2% to 6,929'}, {'start': '545.800', 'end': '547.900', 'text': 'Microsoft jumped nearly 8%,'}, {'start': '548.366', 'end': '552.566', 'text': 'hitting its highest level since late January'}, {'start': '552.566', 'end': '559.300', 'text': 'with its fiscal Q3 2025 results exceeding expectations across the board'}, {'start': '559.400', 'end': '562.433', 'text': 'driven by strong cloud computing performance'}, {'start': '562.500', 'end': '564.366', 'text': 'Meta rose over 4%,'}, {'start': '564.433', 'end': '567.700', 'text': 'with advertising revenue outperforming forecasts'}, {'start': '568.000', 'end': '569.866', 'text': 'Amazon climbed over 3%,'}, {'start': '570.233', 'end': '572.233', 'text': 'Nvidia gained more than 2%,'}, {'start': '572.233', 'end': '573.966', 'text': 'and Google rose over 1%.'}, {'start': '574.600', 'end': '575.933', 'text': 'Tesla underperformed'}, {'start': '575.933', 'end': '582.866', 'text': 'with the company denying reports that its board had begun searching for a successor to CEO Elon Musk'}, {'start': '583.100', 'end': '585.266', 'text': 'On the economic data front, US'}, {'start': '585.266', 'end': '590.033', 'text': 'Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter'}, {'start': '590.033', 'end': '594.933', 'text': 'missing market expectations and marking the first decline since 2022'}, {'start': '595.033', 'end': '600.533', 'text': 'driven by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s tariffs and slowing consumer spending'}, {'start': '600.633', 'end': '602.600', 'text': 'The ADP employment report'}, {'start': '602.600', 'end': '605.233', 'text': 'often called the “little non-farm payroll'}, {'start': '605.266', 'end': '608.800', 'text': '” showed only 62000 jobs added in April'}, {'start': '608.800', 'end': '615.866', 'text': 'below the expected 115000 and the lowest in nine months since July last year'}, {'start': '616.100', 'end': '620.366', 'text': 'The March PCE price index was unchanged month-on-month'}, {'start': '620.366', 'end': '622.366', 'text': 'up 2.3% year-on-year'}, {'start': '622.366', 'end': '629.133', 'text': 'while the core PCE price index was flat month-on-month and up 2.6% year-on-year'}, {'start': '629.200', 'end': '633.966', 'text': 'The April ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 48.7'}, {'start': '634.066', 'end': '639.400', 'text': 'above the expected 47.9 but down from 49 in the prior month'}, {'start': '639.400', 'end': '640.500', 'text': 'Within the index'}, {'start': '640.500', 'end': '645.133', 'text': 'new orders rose to 47.2 (above the expected 45),'}, {'start': '645.266', 'end': '650.733', 'text': 'employment climbed to 46.5 (above the expected 44.6),'}, {'start': '650.866', 'end': '655.866', 'text': 'and selling prices increased from 69.4 to 69.8'}, {'start': '656.066', 'end': '658.400', 'text': 'though below the expected 73'}, {'start': '658.400', 'end': '661.566', 'text': 'indicating moderate price pressure'}, {'start': '661.766', 'end': '666.633', 'text': 'Initial jobless claims for the prior week reached 241000'}, {'start': '666.700', 'end': '669.300', 'text': 'the highest since October last year'}, {'start': '669.300', 'end': '677.100', 'text': 'surpassing the expected 224000 and the previous week’s 223000'}, {'start': '677.100', 'end': '678.566', 'text': 'According to Challenger'}, {'start': '678.566', 'end': '679.666', 'text': 'Gray & Christmas'}, {'start': '679.666', 'end': '682.633', 'text': 'April layoffs totaled 105,000'}, {'start': '682.800', 'end': '688.466', 'text': 'down 62% month-on-month but up 62.7% year-on-year'}, {'start': '688.466', 'end': '692.966', 'text': 'The firm noted that while government layoffs remained a key factor'}, {'start': '693.033', 'end': '697.533', 'text': 'layoffs were observed across various industries last month'}]