Lady Tasting Tea Experiment |Why statistics is important? #statistics #shorts
Cathy Zhang
[{'start': '0.000', 'end': '4.720', 'text': 'I will start by explaining a very famous\xa0\nthought experiment called the Lady Tasting'}, {'start': '4.720', 'end': '9.840', 'text': 'Tea experiment. In this thought experiment,\xa0\nan English woman named Muriel Bristol claimed'}, {'start': '9.840', 'end': '15.760', 'text': 'that she had this special ability of determining\xa0\nwhether tea or milk was added first into a cup'}, {'start': '15.760', 'end': '20.880', 'text': "when making a cup of tea. For those who don't\xa0\nknow in traditional English tea preparation,"}, {'start': '20.880', 'end': '25.520', 'text': 'tea and milk are usually mixed together. So\xa0\nthis English lady Muriel Bristol claimed that'}, {'start': '25.520', 'end': '33.600', 'text': 'she was able to tell whether the milk or tea\xa0\nwas added first to a cup solely by the taste.'}, {'start': '33.600', 'end': '39.520', 'text': 'So as a researcher you want to test whether she\xa0\nreally had the special ability of determining'}, {'start': '39.520', 'end': '46.080', 'text': 'whether milk or tea was added first. But the\xa0\nquestion is how would you do that? So here'}, {'start': '46.080', 'end': '51.520', 'text': 'is a possible research design that can help\xa0\nyou address this research question. So first,'}, {'start': '51.520', 'end': '57.520', 'text': 'you prepare eight cups of tea, four where the tea\xa0\nwas added first and the other four where the milk'}, {'start': '57.520', 'end': '63.040', 'text': 'was added first. And then you give them to Muriel\xa0\nBristol in random order and ask her to taste them'}, {'start': '63.040', 'end': '68.960', 'text': 'and pick out the four cups where the milk was\xa0\nadded first. And that is basically what she'}, {'start': '68.960', 'end': '74.160', 'text': 'did. She picked out the four cups and you record\xa0\nhow many she identified correctly. Basically,'}, {'start': '74.160', 'end': '80.560', 'text': 'you did experiments and you recorded the data. But\xa0\nthe next question is how do you decide whether she'}, {'start': '80.560', 'end': '87.920', 'text': 'can truly tell the difference, or she was just\xa0\nguessing? Our intuition tells us that the more'}, {'start': '87.920', 'end': '95.760', 'text': 'cups she gets correctly, the more likely that\xa0\nshe is NOT guessing. But it is possible that'}, {'start': '95.760', 'end': '102.960', 'text': 'she gets extremely lucky and guesses everything\xa0\ncorrectly. In fact, using probability theory,'}, {'start': '102.960', 'end': '108.080', 'text': "we can compute that if she's just purely\xa0\nguessing, the probability of getting all"}, {'start': '108.080', 'end': '117.440', 'text': 'correct is just 1.4%. 1.4% is a very small\xa0\npercentage, but it is still possible. Therefore,'}, {'start': '117.440', 'end': '123.840', 'text': 'we need to find a method to decide at which point\xa0\nwe can conclude that she is not guessing and she'}, {'start': '123.840', 'end': '130.960', 'text': 'can truly tell the difference. And this is\xa0\nwhere statistics come in. In other words,'}, {'start': '130.960', 'end': '136.880', 'text': 'statistics help us make conclusions about our\xa0\nresearch question after we have collected the'}, {'start': '136.880', 'end': '143.920', 'text': 'data. More specifically, statistics is a method\xa0\nscientists use to make conclusions regarding'}, {'start': '143.920', 'end': '149.520', 'text': 'the mechanisms underlying the observed\xa0\ndata. In this Lady Tasting Tea experiment,'}, {'start': '149.520', 'end': '155.840', 'text': 'the underlying mechanism is whether the English\xa0\nlady has the special ability to tell whether milk'}, {'start': '155.840', 'end': '162.160', 'text': 'or tea was added first into a cup. And through\xa0\nstatistical analysis, we can conclude whether she'}, {'start': '162.160', 'end': '168.320', 'text': 'really had this special ability based on how many\xa0\ncops she can identify correctly in this experiment'}]