US job growth hasn’t been this slow since COVID-19. Trump’s policies could chill it further
ABC15 Arizona
[{'start': '0.080', 'end': '3.840', 'text': "I'm ABC15 data analyst Garrett Archer"}, {'start': '2.240', 'end': '6.160', 'text': "and I'm taking you inside the numbers on"}, {'start': '3.840', 'end': '8.080', 'text': 'the rise in initial jobless claims this'}, {'start': '6.160', 'end': '11.280', 'text': 'week. What are the trends and how'}, {'start': '8.080', 'end': '13.440', 'text': 'concerning is it? So, 241,000 initial'}, {'start': '11.280', 'end': '15.839', 'text': "jobless claims filed last week. That's"}, {'start': '13.440', 'end': '18.320', 'text': '18,000 more than the week prior and more'}, {'start': '15.839', 'end': '20.400', 'text': 'than surveyed economists had expected.'}, {'start': '18.320', 'end': '22.480', 'text': 'This initial number is a huge leading'}, {'start': '20.400', 'end': '24.480', 'text': 'indicator of potential economic problems'}, {'start': '22.480', 'end': '26.400', 'text': "on the horizon, but it's also a very"}, {'start': '24.480', 'end': '28.320', 'text': 'noisy one. So, is it telling us anything'}, {'start': '26.400', 'end': '30.640', 'text': 'right now? So in the past 25 years,'}, {'start': '28.320', 'end': '33.120', 'text': 'initial claims increased dramatically'}, {'start': '30.640', 'end': '35.760', 'text': 'during economic stress periods of the'}, {'start': '33.120', 'end': '37.760', 'text': 'dotcom bust, the great recession, and CO'}, {'start': '35.760', 'end': '39.920', 'text': '19, which is not on this chart since'}, {'start': '37.760', 'end': '42.000', 'text': 'jobless claims were so large they'}, {'start': '39.920', 'end': '44.399', 'text': 'obscure everything else. But as you can'}, {'start': '42.000', 'end': '46.800', 'text': 'see though, recently initial claims are'}, {'start': '44.399', 'end': '48.719', 'text': 'still near historic lows for this'}, {'start': '46.800', 'end': '50.960', 'text': "period. So the weekly rise doesn't"}, {'start': '48.719', 'end': '53.280', 'text': 'really tell us much unless it continues,'}, {'start': '50.960', 'end': '55.280', 'text': 'of course. And zoomed in to just the'}, {'start': '53.280', 'end': '57.199', 'text': 'past 3 years, there is not much of a'}, {'start': '55.280', 'end': '59.120', 'text': 'trend outside of seasonal patterns.'}, {'start': '57.199', 'end': '61.039', 'text': 'Initial jobless claims were in fact'}, {'start': '59.120', 'end': '64.000', 'text': 'higher than what they are now in the'}, {'start': '61.039', 'end': '66.560', 'text': 'summer of 2023 and 2024. Looking at'}, {'start': '64.000', 'end': '68.799', 'text': 'state level data, there were 83,000 jobs'}, {'start': '66.560', 'end': '71.280', 'text': 'claims this week for every 100'}, {'start': '68.799', 'end': '73.360', 'text': "workingaged adults in Arizona. That's"}, {'start': '71.280', 'end': '75.200', 'text': 'ranked 20th, solidly in the middle of'}, {'start': '73.360', 'end': '77.840', 'text': 'the pack. The highest jobless claim'}, {'start': '75.200', 'end': '79.439', 'text': 'rates were found in the Northeast, New'}, {'start': '77.840', 'end': '81.560', 'text': 'Jersey, New York, and Vermont, and'}, {'start': '79.439', 'end': '84.240', 'text': 'Massachusetts, and on the West Coast in'}, {'start': '81.560', 'end': '86.880', 'text': 'California. There were almost 4,900'}, {'start': '84.240', 'end': '89.600', 'text': 'initial filings in total in Arizona last'}, {'start': '86.880', 'end': '91.280', 'text': 'week, which is up, but well within the'}, {'start': '89.600', 'end': '93.280', 'text': "seasonal trends you'd expect to see"}, {'start': '91.280', 'end': '95.680', 'text': 'around this time of year, even prior to'}, {'start': '93.280', 'end': '97.360', 'text': 'CO 19. Our seasonal patterns are a'}, {'start': '95.680', 'end': '99.600', 'text': 'little different from the US in general.'}, {'start': '97.360', 'end': '102.400', 'text': 'Claims tend to rise in the spring and'}, {'start': '99.600', 'end': '104.240', 'text': 'then gradually decline. So, no canary in'}, {'start': '102.400', 'end': '106.240', 'text': 'the coal mine, but we will be keeping an'}, {'start': '104.240', 'end': '108.560', 'text': 'eye on this indicator. Any change in the'}, {'start': '106.240', 'end': '110.240', 'text': 'job market can have a huge impact on the'}, {'start': '108.560', 'end': '113.799', 'text': "economy. with look at the numbers. I'm"}, {'start': '110.240', 'end': '113.799', 'text': 'Garrett Archer, ABC15'}]