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Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre based at Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health. The funders had no role in the study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the paper; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication. Thanks are especially because of the 85-year olds of Newcastle and North Tyneside for the generous donation of their time and personal information to make the study possible. In addition, the authors thank the research nurses, biomarker technicians, data manager, project secretary, and NHS North of Tyne (Newcastle Primary Care Trust) and local general practices.

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