title: Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys. Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2 EUROPEAN COLLABORATIVE TRIAL OF MULTIFACTORIAL PREVENTION OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE The origins, evolution, and future of The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Effect of screening and lifestyle counselling on incidence of ischaemic heart disease in general population: Inter99 randomised trial Multiple risk factor intervention trial. Risk factor changes and mortality results. Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial Research Group. The systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Does evidence exist for its effectiveness? A systematic review Serum cholesterol, blood pressure, cigarette smoking, and death from coronary heart disease. Overall findings and differences by age for 316,099 white men. Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial Research Group.
abstract: BACKGROUND Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable . We present two cardiovascular risk scores , with and without laboratory-based measurements , and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40 - 74 years . METHODS Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model ( Globorisk ) , we used data from eight prospect i ve studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions . The laboratory-based risk score included age , sex , smoking , blood pressure , diabetes , and total cholesterol ; in the non-laboratory ( office-based ) risk score , we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI . We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates . We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys ( using data from adults aged 40 - 64 years ) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk  for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide ; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10 % for high-income countries ( HICs ) and at least 20 % for low-income and middle-income countries ( LMICs ) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention . We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores . FINDINGS Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs , with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe , including China and Russia . In HICs , the proportion of people aged 40 - 64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1 % for South Korean women to 42 % for Czech men ( using a ≥10 % risk threshold ) , and in low-income countries ranged from 2 % in Ug and a ( men and women ) to 13 % in Iranian men ( using a ≥20 % risk threshold ) . More than 80 % of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores . However , the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes . INTERPRETATION Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements . FUNDING National Institutes of Health Objective To develop and vali date version two of the QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm ( QRISK2 ) to provide accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk in patients from different ethnic groups in Engl and and Wales and to compare its performance with the modified version of Framingham score recommended by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence ( NICE ) . Design Prospect i ve open cohort study with routinely collected data from general practice , 1 January 1993 to 31 March 2008 . Setting 531 practice s in Engl and and Wales contributing to the national Q RESEARCH data base . Participants 2.3 million patients aged 35 - 74 ( over 16 million person years ) with 140 000 cardiovascular events . Overall population ( derivation and validation cohorts ) comprised 2.22 million people who were white or whose ethnic group was not recorded , 22 013 south Asian , 11 595 black African , 10 402 black Caribbean , and 19 792 from Chinese or other Asian or other ethnic groups . Main outcome measures First ( incident ) diagnosis of cardiovascular disease ( coronary heart disease , stroke , and transient ischaemic attack ) recorded in general practice records or linked Office for National Statistics death certificates . Risk factors included self assigned ethnicity , age , sex , smoking status , systolic blood pressure , ratio of total serum cholesterol : high density lipoprotein cholesterol , body mass index , family history of coronary heart disease in first degree relative under 60 years , Townsend deprivation score , treated hypertension , type 2 diabetes , renal disease , atrial fibrillation , and rheumatoid arthritis . Results The validation statistics indicated that QRISK2 had improved discrimination and calibration compared with the modified Framingham score . The QRISK2 algorithm explained 43 % of the variation in women and 38 % in men compared with 39 % and 35 % , respectively , by the modified Framingham score . Of the 112 156 patients classified as high risk ( that is , ≥20 % risk over 10 years ) by the modified Framingham score , 46 094 ( 41.1 % ) would be reclassified at low risk with QRISK2 . The 10 year observed risk among these reclassified patients was 16.6 % ( 95 % confidence interval 16.1 % to 17.0%)—that is , below the 20 % treatment threshold . Of the 78 024 patients classified at high risk on QRISK2 , 11 962 ( 15.3 % ) would be reclassified at low risk by the modified Framingham score . The 10 year observed risk among these patients was 23.3 % ( 22.2 % to 24.4%)—that is , above the 20 % threshold . In the validation cohort , the annual incidence rate of cardiovascular events among those with a QRISK2 score of ≥20 % was 30.6 per 1000 person years ( 29.8 to 31.5 ) for women and 32.5 per 1000 person years ( 31.9 to 33.1 ) for men . The corresponding figures for the modified Framingham equation were 25.7 per 1000 person years ( 25.0 to 26.3 ) for women and 26.4 ( 26.0 to 26.8 ) for men ) . At the 20 % threshold , the population identified by QRISK2 was at higher risk of a CV event than the population identified by the Framingham score . Conclusions Incorporating ethnicity , deprivation , and other clinical conditions into the QRISK2 algorithm for risk of cardiovascular disease improves the accuracy of identification of those at high risk in a nationally representative population . At the 20 % threshold , QRISK2 is likely to be a more efficient and equitable tool for treatment decisions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease . As the validation was performed in a similar population to the population from which the algorithm was derived , it potentially has a “ home advantage . ” Further validation in other population s is therefore advised Results are reported from a trial of multifactorial prevention of coronary heart disease ( CHD ) in occupational groups , involving r and omization of 66 factories to intervention and control ( 49,781 men ages 40 to 59 ) in the United Kingdom , Belgium , Italy , and Pol and . Net average reductions in the intervention factors were 1.2 % ( plasma cholesterol ) , 8.9 % ( daily cigarettes ) , 0.4 % ( weight ) , 2 % ( systolic blood pressure ) , and 11 % for a combined risk estimate . Reductions were larger in high-risk men ( 19 % for the combined estimate ) . Red blood cell fatty acid profiles were substantially changed . There was a net overall reduction of 7.4 % in fatal CHD and 2.7 % in total deaths . Benefits were larger in centers achieving larger risk factor reductions , and in one country -- Belgium -- the net decreases in CHD incidence and total deaths were significant at the 5 % level . Benefit was at least as great in men with established ECG abnormality . It is concluded that CHD risk in middle-aged men seems to be reducible by simple and cost-effective means The Cochrane Data base of Systematic Review s ( CDSR ) evolved in response to Archie Cochrane 's challenge to the medical profession to assemble " a critical summary , adapted periodically , of all ... relevant r and omized controlled trials " . CDSR has been an electronic publication from its inception and this has meant that Cochrane review s ( i ) need not be constrained by lack of space ; ( ii ) can be up date d as new information becomes available and when mistakes or other ways of improving them are identified ; and ( iii ) can be cross-linked to other , related sources of relevant information . Although CDSR has become widely cited , it must continue to evolve in the light of technological and method ological developments , and in response to the needs of people making decisions about health care Objective To investigate the effect of systematic screening for risk factors for ischaemic heart disease followed by repeated lifestyle counselling on the 10 year development of ischaemic heart disease at a population level . Design R and omised controlled community based trial . Setting Suburbs of Copenhagen , Denmark Participants 59 616 people aged 30 - 60 years r and omised with different age and sex r and omisation ratios to an intervention group ( n=11 629 ) and a control group ( n=47 987 ) . Intervention The intervention group was invited for screening , risk assessment , and lifestyle counselling up to four times over a five year period . All participants with an unhealthy lifestyle had individually tailored lifestyle counselling at all visits ( at baseline and after one and three years ) ; those at high risk of ischaemic heart disease , according to predefined criteria , were furthermore offered six sessions of group based lifestyle counselling on smoking cessation , diet , and physical activity . After five years all were invited for a final counselling session . Participants were referred to their general practitioner for medical treatment , if relevant . The control group was not invited for screening . Main outcome measures The primary outcome measure was incidence of ischaemic heart disease in the intervention group compared with the control group .  Secondary outcome measures were stroke , combined events ( ischaemic heart disease , stroke , or both ) , and mortality . Results 6091 ( 52.4 % ) people in the intervention group participated at baseline . Among 5978 people eligible at five year follow-up ( 59 died and 54 emigrated ) , 4028 ( 67.4 % ) attended . A total of 3163 people died in the 10 year follow-up period . Among 58 308 without a history of ischaemic heart disease at baseline , 2782 developed ischaemic heart disease . Among 58 940 without a history of stroke at baseline , 1726 developed stroke . No significant difference was seen between the intervention and control groups in the primary end point ( hazard ratio for ischaemic heart disease 1.03 , 95 % confidence interval 0.94 to 1.13 ) or in the secondary endpoints ( stroke 0.98 , 0.87 to 1.11 ; combined endpoint 1.01 , 0.93 to 1.09 ; total mortality 1.00 , 0.91 to 1.09 ) . Conclusion A community based , individually tailored intervention programme with screening for risk of ischaemic heart disease and repeated lifestyle intervention over five years had no effect on ischaemic heart disease , stroke , or mortality at the population level after 10 years . Trial registration Clinical trials NCT00289237 The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial was a r and omized primary prevention trial to test the effect of a multifactor intervention program on mortality from coronary heart disease ( CHD )  in 12,866 high-risk men aged 35 to 57 years . Men were r and omly assigned either to a special intervention ( SI ) program consisting of stepped-care treatment for hypertension , counseling for cigarette smoking , and dietary advice for lowering blood cholesterol levels , or to their usual sources of health care in the community ( UC ) . Over an average follow-up period of seven years , risk factor levels declined in both groups , but to a greater degree for the SI men . Mortality from CHD was 17.9 deaths per 1,000 in the SI group and 19.3 per 1,000 in the UC group , a statistically nonsignificant difference of 7.1 % ( 90 % confidence interval , -15 % to 25 ) . Total mortality rates were 41.2 per 1,000 ( SI ) and 40.4 per 1,000 ( UC ) . Three possible explanations for these findings are considered : ( 1 ) the overall intervention program , under these circumstances , does not affect CHD mortality ; ( 2 ) the intervention used does affect CHD mortality , but the benefit was not observed in this trial of seven years ' average duration , with lower-than-expected mortality and with considerable risk factor change in the UC group ; and ( 3 ) measures to reduce cigarette smoking and to lower blood cholesterol levels may have reduced CHD mortality within subgroups of the SI cohort , with a possibly unfavorable response to antihypertensive drug therapy in certain but not all hypertensive subjects . This last possibility was considered most likely , needs further investigation , and lends support to some preventive measures while requiring re assessment of others Objectives : The SCORE model predicts the ten-year risk of cardiovascular mortality but it is still unknown whether applying the SCORE in clinical practice subsequently improves cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) outcomes . The objective of this study is to assess the effect of total cardiovascular risk estimation using the SCORE in preventing serious cardiovascular events in European adults without prior CVD . Methods and results : Data sources : eight bibliographical data bases ( 2003 – August 2015 ) , other internet sources and reference lists of articles were checked . This was supplemented by contact with the board members of the European Society of Cardiology ( ESC ) and the authors of the SCORE model . Study eligibility criteria : all prospect i ve studies in any language investigating the effect of using the SCORE on the clinical outcome ( CVD death , major events and adverse outcomes ) in an adult population were examined . Two review ers assessed the studies independently ( titles , abstract s , full texts ) . After removal of duplicates , 5,256 records were screened and 14 full text papers considered . No eligible studies were identified . An extensive literature search revealed no r and omized control trial or other prospect i ve study comparing significant clinical outcomes between groups that used the SCORE and those who did not . Conclusions : The effect of using the SCORE ( with or without subsequent intervention ) on CVD death , all-cause mortality , major CVD events like myocardial infa rct ion and stroke , as well as adverse outcomes , is still unknown . A cluster r and omised controlled trial is warranted to evaluate the use of the SCORE on important outcomes To assess the combined influence of blood pressure ( BP ) , serum cholesterol level , and cigarette smoking on death from coronary heart disease ( CHD ) and to describe how these associations vary with age , data on those factors and on mortality for 316,099 men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial ( MRFIT ) were examined . Vital status of participants has been determined after an average follow-up of 12 years ; 6327 deaths from CHD have been identified . Strong grade d relationships between serum cholesterol levels above 4.65 mmol/L ( 180 mg/dL ) , systolic BP above 110 mm Hg , and diastolic BP above 70 mm Hg and mortality due to CHD were evident . Smokers with serum cholesterol and systolic BP levels in the highest quintiles had CHD death rates that were approximately 20 times greater than nonsmoking men with systolic BP and cholesterol levels in the lowest quintile . Systolic and diastolic BP , serum cholesterol level , and cigarettes per day were significant predictors of death due to CHD in all age groups . Systolic BP was a stronger predictor than diastolic BP . These results , together with the findings of clinical trials , offer strong support for intensified preventive efforts in all age groups
target: The impact of TRA on global CVD risk as well as individual risk factors is ambiguous , but a tendency towards slight reduction of blood pressure , total cholesterol and smoking levels , especially in high risk patient groups was observed .
  TRA had no influence on lifestyle behaviour .
  Conclusions There is limited evidence , of low overall quality , suggesting a possible lack of effectiveness of TRA in reducing CVD events and mortality , as well as a clinical ly insignificant influence on individual risk factor levels .
background: Background Our objectives were to critically appraise and summarise the current evidence for the effectiveness of using cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) risk scoring ( total risk assessment - TRA ) in routine risk assessment in primary prevention of CVD compared with st and ard care with regards to patients outcomes , clinical risk factor levels , medication prescribing , and adverse effects .