Commercially funded and United States-based research is more likely to be published; good-quality studies with negative outcomes are not. Effect of the statistical significance of results on the time to completion and publication of randomized efficacy trials. Bias in reporting clinical trials. Publication bias: evidence of delayed publication in a cohort study of clinical research projects.
Prior studies implying associations between receipt of commercial funding and positive (significant and/or pro-industry) research outcomes have analyzed only published papers, which is an insufficiently robust approach for assessing publication bias. In this study, we tested the following hypotheses regarding orthopaedic manuscripts submitted for review: (1) nonscientific variables, including receipt of commercial funding, affect the likelihood that a peer-reviewed submission will conclude with a report of a positive study outcome, and (2) positive outcomes and other, nonscientific variables are associated with acceptance for publication.
                All manuscripts about hip or knee arthroplasty that were submitted to The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, American Volume, over seventeen months were evaluated to determine the study design, quality, and outcome. Analyses were carried out to identify associations between scientific factors (sample size, study quality, and level of evidence) and study outcome as well as between non-scientific factors (funding source and country of origin) and study outcome. Analyses were also performed to determine whether outcome, scientific factors, or nonscientific variables were associated with acceptance for publication.
                Two hundred and nine manuscripts were reviewed. Commercial funding was not found to be associated with a positive study outcome (p = 0.668). Studies with a positive outcome were no more likely to be published than were those with a negative outcome (p = 0.410). Studies with a negative outcome were of higher quality (p = 0.003) and included larger sample sizes (p = 0.05). Commercially funded (p = 0.027) and United States-based (p = 0.020) studies were more likely to be published, even though those studies were not associated with higher quality, larger sample sizes, or lower levels of evidence (p = 0.24 to 0.79).
                Commercially funded studies submitted for review were not more likely to conclude with a positive outcome than were nonfunded studies, and studies with a positive outcome were no more likely to be published than were studies with a negative outcome. These findings contradict those of most previous analyses of published (rather than submitted) research. Commercial funding and the country of origin predict publication following peer review beyond what would be expected on the basis of study quality. Studies with a negative outcome, although seemingly superior in quality, fared no better than studies with a positive outcome in the peer-review process; this may result in inflation of apparent treatment effects when the published literature is subjected to meta-analysis. Medical evidence may be biased over time if completion and publication of randomized efficacy trials are delayed when results are not statistically significant.
                To evaluate whether the time to completion and the time to publication of randomized phase 2 and phase 3 trials are affected by the statistical significance of results and to describe the natural history of such trials.
                Prospective cohort of randomized efficacy trials conducted by 2 trialist groups from 1986 to 1996.
                Multicenter trial groups in human immunodeficiency virus infection sponsored by the National Institutes of Health.
                A total of 109 efficacy trials (total enrollment, 43708 patients).
                Time from start of enrollment to completion of follow-up and time from completion of follow-up to peer-reviewed publication assessed with survival analysis.
                The median time from start of enrollment to publication was 5.5 years and was substantially longer for negative trials than for results favoring an experimental arm (6.5 vs 4.3 years, respectively; P<.001; hazard ratio for time to publication for positive vs negative trials, 3.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-7.7). This difference was mostly attributable to differences in the time from completion to publication (median, 3.0 vs 1.7 years for negative vs positive trials; P<.001). On average, trials with significant results favoring any arm completed follow-up slightly earlier than trials with nonsignificant results (median, 2.3 vs 2.5 years; P=.045), but long-protracted trials often had low event rates and failed to reach statistical significance, while trials that were terminated early had significant results. Positive trials were submitted for publication significantly more rapidly after completion than were negative trials (median, 1.0 vs 1.6 years; P=.001) and were published more rapidly after submission (median, 0.8 vs 1.1 years; P=.04).
                Among randomized efficacy trials, there is a time lag in the publication of negative findings that occurs mostly after the completion of the trial follow-up. The primary aim of the present study was to identify possible occurrence of selective reporting of the results of clinical trials to the Finnish National Agency for Medicines. Selective reporting may lead to poorly informed action or inaction by regulatory authorities.
                In 1987, 274 clinical drug trials were notified to the Finnish National Agency for Medicines. By December 1993, final reports had been received from 68 of these trials and statements that the trial had been suspended from 24 trials. The sponsors of the non-reported trials were requested to report the outcome. The outcomes, if any, of all reported and non-reported trials were classified as positive, inconclusive or negative.
                The total number of trials with positive, inconclusive or negative outcome were 111, 33 and 44, respectively; the outcomes of 86 trials could not be assessed. Final reports were received from 42/111 (38%) trials with positive, 6/33 (18%) with inconclusive and 9/44 (20%) with negative outcomes.
                Substantial evidence of selective reporting was detected, since trials with positive outcome resulted more often in submission of final report to regulatory authority than those with inconclusive or negative outcomes. To determine the extent to which publication is influenced by study outcome.
                A cohort of studies submitted to a hospital ethics committee over 10 years were examined retrospectively by reviewing the protocols and by questionnaire. The primary method of analysis was Cox's proportional hazards model.
                University hospital, Sydney, Australia.
                748 eligible studies submitted to Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Ethics Committee between 1979 and 1988.
                Time to publication.
                Response to the questionnaire was received for 520 (70%) of the eligible studies. Of the 218 studies analysed with tests of significance, those with positive results (P < 0.05) were much more likely to be published than those with negative results (P > or = 0.10) (hazard ratio 2.32 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.66), P = 0.0003), with a significantly shorter time to publication (median 4.8 v 8.0 years). This finding was even stronger for the group of 130 clinical trials (hazard ratio 3.13 (1.76 to 5.58). P = 0.0001), with median times to publication of 4.7 and 8.0 years respectively. These results were not materially changed after adjusting for other significant predictors of publication. Studies with indefinite conclusions (0.05 < or = P < 0.10) tended to have an even lower publication rate and longer time to publication than studies with negative results (hazard ratio 0.39 (0.13 to 1.12), P = 0.08). For the 103 studies in which outcome was rated qualitatively, there was no clear cut evidence of publication bias, although the number of studies in this group was not large.
                This study confirms the evidence of publication bias found in other studies and identifies delay in publication as an additional important factor. The study results support the need for prospective registration of trials to avoid publication bias and also support restricting the selection of trials to those started before a common date in undertaking systematic reviews.
Trials with positive findings are published more often, and more quickly, than trials with negative findings.