Hvad tid står solen op i morgen?
Sunrise problem
Hvis man med denne formel har observeret solen gå op 10000 gange tidligere, er sandsynligheden for at den går op den næste dag



10001

/

10002
≈
0.99990002


{\displaystyle 10001/10002\approx 0.99990002}

.  Udtrykt i procent svarer det til ca.



99.990002
%


{\displaystyle 99.990002\%}

 chance.
Sunrise problem
By this formula, if one has observed the sun rising 10000 times previously, the probability it rises the next day is 



10001

/

10002
≈
0.99990002


{\displaystyle 10001/10002\approx 0.99990002}

.  Expressed as a percentage, this is approximately a 



99.990002
%


{\displaystyle 99.990002\%}

 chance.
Sunrise problem