Change in poverty is measured as the change in the logarithm of the odds ratio of being poor (log(h/(1 -h)), and export growth is the log difference in per capita real exports between 1990 and 2007. The fitted regression line has a highly significant coefficient of -0.48 with an R2 of 0.61 which is double the R2 for the overall sample obtained in the section entitled Exports and poverty. Therefore, it will not be surprising to find that the distinction between the successful countries and those lagging behind made above on the basis of poverty trends is also mirrored in relation to export performance of the two groups. To detect causality one needs to investigate the channels through which export growth is linked to changes in poverty by detailed case studies in each individual country.