Economic activity and world trade have recovered slowly since 2011 and are expected to strengthen gradually over the next two years, driven by the dynamism of non-OECD economies (5.0% and 5.3%, respectively), particularly the People’s Republic of China (7.4% and 7.2%, respectively). The recent acceleration in the United States signals a global return to growth, but the tightening of US monetary policy and the federal debt create uncertainty about the stability of US GDP growth (1.9% in 2013). Growth prospects in Japan (1.5% in 2013) are constrained by the level of public debt. Some southern and central European countries have yet to recover and should have modest growth of less than 2% in the next two years. Their structural deficiencies also affect the entire European Union. Few European countries are expected to grow faster than 2% in 2014 and 2015.