The assumed parameters do not aim to provide accurate or realistic projections, especially in the United States Southwest, but they are meant to implement water supply constraint shocks that could affect irrigated agriculture in the three regions. In other words, the scenarios provide a means to gauge the resistance of the irrigation sector to water stress (providing a “water stress test” like the other scenarios). This translates into simulating the gradual transition to a maximum of 46%, 40% and 33%, basin efficiency by 2050 in the Southwest United States, Northeast China and Northw est India, respectively. The shocks are intended to provide a pessimistic illustration of the possible impacts of agriculture water risks in the three regions, rather than an accurate projection of observed trends.