The first payments were made in April 2011 and hence data on the coverage and expenditure are still limited. Any labour-market-related moral-hazard effect is likely to be less relevant in the case of CTs to the elderly who are anyway out of the labour market, especially in countries where life expectancy is substantially lower than in the OECD. Other types of medium to long-term effects include the impact of the existing pension system on the incentives to contribute throughout one’s working life. However, this issue may be less relevant in the emerging economies, where frequent major reforms of the pension system take place and hence there is little certainty with respect to the existence or not of the current programmes in ten or twenty years later.