These shortages, estimated at about 2,700 GWh, about one quarter of winter electricity demand, impose economic losses estimated at over US$200 million per annum or 3 per cent of GDP. When the losses during transmission and distribution of electricity are considered, the deficit at the generation level amounts to about 3,100 GWh during winter, compared with a total winter supply requirement of 11,200 GWh, a gap of about 24 per cent. Without prompt action to remedy the causes of Tajikistan’s electricity crisis, and with growing demand, the shortages could increase to about 4,500 GWh by 2016 (over one third of winter electricity demand) or worse. Rehabilitation also offers an opportunity to increase the electricity generation per unit of water.