In a ‘business as usual’ scenario with current population growth, continued migration to urban areas, growing energy demand, and little improvement in regard to access, energy efficiency and renewable energy, Commonwealth Pacific small states will increase fuel imports and become more dependent on petroleum, increase their vulnerability to macroeconomic impacts (GDP decline), and generate greater GHG emissions. In a scenario with moderate population growth, some migration to urban areas and other countries outside the Pacific, subdued energy demand, and some improvement to access, energy efficiency and renewable energy, Commonwealth Pacific small states are likely to moderately lower their dependence on petroleum, mitigate macroeconomic impacts to some extent and generate moderate levels of GHG emissions. In the more optimistic scenario of maintaining population at current levels, including urban and rural population ratios, some migration to neighbouring states, reduced energy demand, and escalated action on access, energy efficiency, and renewable energy, Commonwealth Pacific small states will significantly lower their dependence on petroleum, have greater economic independence (GDP increase), and will achieve SDG 7 and the NDCs.