Non-demographic growth is projected forward using an exponential growth form, starting at the rate implied by the component models at the end of their projections — around 1.8 per cent. This is transitioned up to the all-government growth rate of 3.2 per cent using a logistic curve. The impact on percentage point change in 2049-2050 in health spending of alternative scenarios as to participation - total labour force, older workers, and unemployment - productivity, and population - net migration, fertility, and life expectancy - is assessed.