Bars and diamonds indicate ranges and averages across models, respectively. The three world regions are defined to include the Americas; Europe, Africa and the Middle East; and Asia and Oceania. Changes shown are relative to the respective scenario without policy change. A well-functioning trading system has an important role to play in cushioning local and regional supply-side shocks, such as those related to extreme weather or civil unrest, and in mitigating their adverse impacts on food security (Baldos and Hertel, 2015).