Overall, OECD (2006) and European Commission (2009) estimate that changes in demography alone will boost public health-care spending in Poland by 0.9% of GDP between 2005 and 2050 and by 1.3% between 2007 and 2060, respectively. The impact of demography on long-term care spending is estimated at 1.9% and 0.7% of GDP, respectively. As for the impact of income gains, an average annual increase of 1.5% in GDP per capita over 40 years would result in a rise in health-care spending of only 0.4% (0.9%) of GDP based on an income elasticity of 1.1 (1.2).