Naturally, public spending forecasts are closely linked to revenue projections; for a given level of spending on social protection, the strength of the revenue performance will determine the extent to which spending on other items might need to be reprioritised. The first is a business-as-usual approach whereby a low-GDP-growth scenario is assumed and the share of the main components of public expenditure to GDP remains at the same level as during the GTP I period. Beyond 2020, it is assumed that the share of recurrent spending to GDP will remain constant while capital expenditure will keep rising to reach 15% of GDP by 2025/26.