Much of the paper sector output, particularly for paperboard, is intimately tied to the demands for packaging by the manufacturing sector, which has been in an unsteady decline since 1999 in the USA, and is likely to trend downward into the foreseeable future. The expected recovery in traditional forest products markets is accompanied by great uncertainty about the extent and consequences of production of wood energy. If wood energy supply is consistent with the volumes the IPCC in its report considered necessary to stabilise climate change (assuming a constant share of bioenergy in renewables), it would increase 4-5 times between 2006 and 2030 in the USA and 3-7 times in Canada, with steep price rises. However, if the historical mix between energy and industrial wood is assumed to stay constant, the increases in wood energy are relatively small in both countries, a clear indication of the importance of policy factors in driving the expansion of wood energy.