The value of forecasting models does not lie in their ability to “predict” the future - a task that no medium-to-Iong term model could realistically accomplish. Indeed if models based on current trends accurately predicted the future, it could signal a lack of innovation or policy development. As a recent report from the Swedish Ministry of Health and Social Affairs states, “Effective forecasts change the future, which means that they prove - and have to prove - wrong” (Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, 2010). Figure 1 presents public expenditure growth forecasts from models in five countries if no policy action is taken.