Probabilities depend on the individual’s age, sex, and the presence of risk factors and w'ere determined from the published literature. Disease pathways (recovery, continuance, death) were developed to match survival and case fatality statistics via a randomized or Monte Carlo process. The Monte Carlo process involves the generation of a random number that influences the occurrence of events and allows outcomes to vary from one individual to another. Survival probabilities are determined by the survival experience of individuals with a given disease, moderated by age and sex, and were obtained from the published literature. Forecasts future public costs (NHS costs) in constant dollars attributed to increasing obesity rates. The time horizon of the projection is over forty years, with recent published projections from 2008 to 2050.