On average, morbidity compression could reduce the health care spending to GDP ratio by a 1 percentage point for the OECD countries and by more for the BRIICS countries. A lower trend productivity growth rate of half percentage point was assumed and the productivity changes were translated into new GDP growth paths using the OECD Long-term Model. The effect of lower GDP on the health spending to GDP ratio is small, because the elasticity of health spending to GDP is relatively high, being 0.8 (de la Maisonneuve and Oliveira Martins, 2013).