Using an approach similar to that of the European Commission21, the Dutch model analyses policy interventions by comparing their impact against a “no intervention” scenario. A “no intervention” scenario depicts how health expenditures will affect public finances if left on current trajectories. Historical data are used to estimates parameters of interest (back-casting) which are then used to project health expenditures. The population is divided into 20 age groups (each comprising 5 years). Each age group is associated with levels of per capita expenditure for six major spending sectors.