
makaradaki pootiilu

makaradakis pootiilu (emm pootiilu ledhaa emm-pootiilu anie kooda pilustaaru) vividha samaya shreni anchanaa paddhatula khachitatvanni anchanaa vaeyadaaniki mariyu poolchadaaniki bahiranga pootiila shreni. avi parisoedhakulanu anchanaa vese spiros makaradakis netrutvamloni brundaalachae nirvahinchabadataayi mariyu modatisaarigaa 1982loe jarigaayi.
pootiilu.
1982loe modati pootii.
1982loe jarigina modati makaradakis pootii, mariyu anchanaa saahityamlo emm-poteegaa piluvabadedi, 1001 samaya shreni mariyu 15 anchanaa paddhatulanu upayoginchindi (aaa paddhatula yokka maroe tommidi vaividhyaalatoe). rachayitala taruvaati kaagitam prakaram, emm-pootii yokka pradhana teermaanaalu eee krindi vidhamgaa unnaih
itara parisoedhakulu kotta paddhatulanu upayoginchadam dwara adhyayanam yokka phalitaalu dhruvikarinchabaddayi mariyu pratiroopam cheyabaddaayi.
raab zhe prakaram. handman "... evarainaa anchanaalanu samarpinchavachhu, idhi naaku telisinanta varaku modati nijamaina anchanaa poteegaa nilichindi.
newbold (1983) emm-pootiini vimarsinchindi, sanklishtamaina samasyanu parishkarinchadaaniki oke pootiini upayoginchaalane saadhaarana aalochanaku vyatiraekamgaa vaadinchindi.
modati pooteeki mundu, makaradakis-haiban adhyayanam.
modati emm-pooteeki mundu, macridakis mariyu hibbon raayal statistical society (jrss) jarnallo prachurinchina oka vyaasam, marinta sanklishtamaina mariyu ganankaparamga adhunaatanamaina vaatitho poliste saralamaina paddhatulu baga panicheestaayani choopistundi. aaa samayamlo ganankavettalu phalitaalanu avi saadhyam kaadani paerkontuu vimarsinchaaru. vaari vimarsalu taruvaati emm, emm2 mariyu emm3 pootiilanu prerepinchaayi, ivi makaradakis mariyu hiban adhyayanaaniki sambandhinchinavi anedaanilo etuvanti sandeham ledhu.
rendava pootii, 1993loe prachurinchabadindi.
rendava pootii, emm-2 pootii ledhaa emm-2-pootii anie piluvabadutundi, idhi pedda ettuna nirvahinchabadindi. paalgonaalani pilupu "antarjaateeya journal off forecasting" loe prachurinchabadindi, antarjaateeya forecasting symposiumlo prakatanalu cheyabaddaayi mariyu vividha samaya shreni paddhatulapai telisina nipunulandarikee vraatapuurvaka ahvanam pampabadindi. emm2-pootii naalugu companyla sahakaaramtho nirvahinchabadindi mariyu indulo aaru sthuula aardhika shrenulu unnaayi, mariyu idhi nija-samaya praatipadikana nirvahinchabadindi. dayta united states nundi vachindi. eee pootii phalitaalu 1993 patrikalo prachurinchabaddaayi. ganankaparamga emm-pootii phalitaalato samanamga unnayani paerkonnaaru.
asalu emm-pootii kante emm2-pootiiloo chaalaa takkuva samaya shrenini upayoginchaaru. asalu emm-pootiiloo 1001 time sireesnu upayoginchagaa, emm2-pootiiloo 29 matrame upayoginchabaddaayi, veetilo naalugu sahakaara samsthala nundi 23 mariyu 6 sthuula aardhika shrenulu unnaayi. yajamanya gopyatanu kaapaadataaniki sthiramaina gunakam upayoginchadam dwara companyla nundi dayta aspashtamgaa undhi. emm2-pootii yokka uddesyam eee krindi amsaalalo vaastava-prapancha anchanaanu merugga anukarinchadam
eee pootii eee krindi vidhamgaa nirvahinchabadindih
prachurinchina phalitaalato paatu, paalgonevaarilo chaalaa mandhi pootiiloo palgonna vaari anubhavanni mariyu pootii pradarsinchina vaatipai vaari pratibimbaalanu vivaristuu chinna kathanaalu raasaaru. criss chatfield pootii roopakalpananu prasamsimchaaru, conny nirvaahakula uttama prayatnaalu unnappatikee, vaastava prapancha anchanaalo prajalu kaligi untaarani bhaavinchinanduna, samsthalaku lopala nundi taginanta praapyata ledani athanu bhaavinchaadani chepparu.
eee pootiilu samarpinchina aadharalu unnappatikee, saiddhaantika ganankavettalu chikkulanu vismarinchadam konasaaginchaarani fieldes mariyu makaradakis (1995) vaadinchaaru.
2000loe prachurinchabadina moodava pootii.
emm-3 pootii ledhaa emm-3 pootii anie piluvabade moodava pootii, marinni paddhatulu mariyu parisoedhakulanu (mukhyamgaa neural networkla rangamlo parisoedhakulu) mariyu marinni samaya shrenulanu cherchadam dwara emm-pootii mariyu emm-2-pootii yokka lakshanaalanu punaraavrutam cheyadaaniki mariyu vistarinchadaaniki uddesinchabadindi. mottam 3003 samaya shrenulu upayoginchabaddaayi. pootii phalitaalanu document chese paper 2000loe "international journal off forecasting" loe prachurinchabadindi mariyu mudi dayta international institute off forecasters websitelo kooda andubaatulo unchabadindi. rachayitala abhiprayam prakaram, emm3-pootii nundi vacchina teermaanaalu munupati pootiila maadirigaane unnaayi.
samaya shrenilo vaarshika, traimaasika, nelawari, rojuvaaree mariyu itara samaya shrenulu unnaayi. khachitamaina anchanaa namuunaanu abhivruddhi cheyadaaniki taginanta dayta andubaatulo undela chuudataaniki, pariseelanala sankhyaku kaneesa parimitulu nirnayinchabaddaayih vaarshika shreniki 14, traimaasika shreniki 16, nelawari shreniki 48 mariyu itara shrenulaku 60.
time syries krindi domainlalo unnaih micro, industry, macro, finance, demographic mariyu itara. samaya viramam mariyu domine aadhaaramgaa samaya shrenula sankhya krinda ivvabadindi
vividha anchanaala khachitatvanni anchanaa vaeyadaaniki upayoginche aidu kolataluh cemetric sagatu sampoorna saatam lopam (cemetric mapp anie kooda pilustaaru), sagatu ranking, madhyastha cemetric sampoorna saatam lopam (madhyastha cemetric ape anie kooda pilustaaru), saatam merugainadi mariyu madhyastha rae.
emm3-pootii nundi dayta sett yokka vividha vislaeshanhalatoe aneka itara patraalu prachurinchabaddaayi. raab zhe prakaram. international journal off forecasting (ii. ii. zii. eff) editor-inn-cheef ayina hindman, "kotta time syries forecasting paddhatulanu pareekshinchadaaniki 2000 nundi emm3 dayta upayoginchadam konasaagutundi. vaastavaaniki, pratipaadita anchanaa paddhati asalu emm3 palgone paddhatulaku vyatiraekamgaa poteegaa unte tappa, ii. ii. zii. eff loe prachurinchadam kashtam."
naalugo pootii, janavari 1,2018naa praarambhamai, mae 31,2018naa mugisindi.
naalugo pootii, emm4, november 2017loe prakatinchabadindi. pootii janavari 1,2018naa praarambhamai, mae 31,2018naa mugisindi. prarambha phalitaalu juun 21,2018naa antarjaateeya journal off forecastinglo prachurinchabaddaayi.
vividha rakaala anchanaala kosam atyanta khachitamaina anchanaa paddhati (lanu) gurtinchadaaniki podiginchina mariyu vibhina samaya shrenini upayoginchi, m4 munupati moodu pootiila phalitaalanu vistarinchindi mariyu pratiroopam chesindi. anchanaa khachitatvanni elaa meruguparachaalane daanipai samaadhaanaalanu pondadam mariyu prati kesuku atyanta tagina paddhatulanu gurtinchadam dheeni lakshyam. khachitamaina mariyu balavantapu samaadhaanaalanu pondadaaniki, emm4 pootii 100,000 nija jeevita shrenulanu upayoginchindi mariyu krutrima medhassu (yantra abhyasam, ml), alaage saampradaaya ganaanka paddhatula aadhaaramgaa anni pradhana anchanaa paddhatulanu kaligi undhi.
thana blaglo, raab zhe. emm4 gurinchi hindman ilaa annadu spiros makaradakis nirvahinchina "emm" pootiilu anchanaa rangamlo apaaramaina prabhavanni chupayi. vaaru aaa namuunaala ganita lakshanaalapai kakunda, yea namuunaalu manchi anchanaalanu utpatti chesayane daanipai drushti pettaru. daani kosam, eee pootiila shreni dwara anchanaa parisoedhana yokka prakruti drushyaanni maarchinanduku spiros abhinandanalaku arhulu."
samaya viramam mariyu domine aadhaaramgaa samaya shrenula sankhya krinda ivvabadindi
khachitamaina anchanaa namuunaanu abhivruddhi cheyadaaniki taginanta dayta andubaatulo undela chuudataaniki, pariseelanala sankhyaku kaneesa parimitulu nirnayinchabaddaayih samvatsaraaniki 13, traimaasikaaniki 16, nelavaareeki 42, vaaraaniki 80, rojuku 93 mariyu ganta shreniki 700.
ml paddhatula khachitatvanni ganaanka paddhathulatho polchadam mariyu ml paddhatula yokka atyuttama paniteeru yokka vaadanalanu anubhaavikamgaa dhruveekarinchadam dheeni pradhana lakshyaalalo okati.
emm4 pootii mariyu daani pradhana phalitaalu mariyu mugimpu yokka sankshipta vivarana krinda ivvabadindi
emm4 pootii mae 31,2018naa mugisindi mariyu point suuchanalatoe paatu, indulo anchanaa viramalanu (paie) kooda perkonadam jarigindi. m4 anedi oka bahiranga lakshyam, daani atyanta mukhyamaina lakshyam (munupati moodu meterla pootiilatoe samanamga): "anchanaa khachitatvanni meruguparachadam mariyu veelainanta varaku kshetraanni munduku teesukelladam neerchukoevadam".
aidu pradhana phalitaalu mariyu m4 yokka mugimpu
emm4 pootii yokka aidu pradhana falitaalugaa memu pariganinche vaatini krinda vivarinchaamu mariyu eee phalitaala nundi taarkika mugimpunu munduku teesukuvelataamu.
paina perkonna phalitaala nundi vacchina mugimpu emitante, vyaktigata ganaanka ledhaa ml paddhatula khachitatvam takkuvagaa untundi mariyu hybrid vidhanalu mariyu paddhatula kalayika anedi anchanaa khachitatvanni meruguparachadaaniki mariyu anchanaanu marinta viluvainadigaa cheyadaaniki maargam.
aidava pootii, marchi 3,2020naa praarambhamai, juulai 1,2020naa mugisindi.
emm5 marchi 3naa praarambhamaindi, mariyu phalitaalu juulai 1,2020naa prakatinchabaddaayi. idhi walmart nundi nija jeevita daetaanu upayoginchindi mariyu kagul platformlo nirvahinchabadindi. idhi vijaetalaku mottam 100,000 dollarla viluvaina bahumatulanu andinchindi. eee daetaanu walmart andinchindi mariyu sumaru 42,000 kramaanugata rojuvaaree samaya shrenulanu kaligi undhi, idhi scus sthaayi nundi praarambhamai, kontha pedda bhougolika praantam yokka mottam demandto mugustundi. ammakaala detatho paatu, dharalu, prakatanalu/prachara karyakalapalu mariyu jabita sthaayilatho paatu dayta soochinche vaaramlooni roeju gurinchi kooda samacharam undhi.
modati, rendava mariyu moodava vijaetalaku aneka pradhana bahumatulu unnaayi.
vidyaarthi mariyu company bahumatulu kooda unnaayi. oke paalgonevaaru ledhaa jattu geluchukogala bahumatula sankhyaku parimiti ledhu.
emm5 yokka drushti pradhanamgaa vidyaavettalapai kakunda abhyaasakulapai undedi. emm5 pootii daadaapu 6,000 mandhi paalgonevaarini mariyu jatlanu aakarshinchindi, gananeeyamaina aasaktini pondindi.
off shootlu.
nn3-pootii.
emm3-pootii nirvaahakulu krutrima naadii networkla rangamlo parisoedhakulanu sampradinchi, pootiiloo tama bhagaswamyanni korinappatiki, oka parisoedhakudu matrame palgonnaru, mariyu aaa parisoedhakudi anchanaalu paelavamgaa panicheesaayi. aaa samayamlo paalgonadaaniki chaalaa mandhi aann parisoedhakula ayishtata aann-aadhaarita anchanaa yokka gananaparamgaa teevramaina swabhaavam mariyu pootii kosam upayoginche bhaarii samaya shreni kaaranamgaa undhi. 2005loe, crone, nicolopoulose mariyu hiban nn-3 pootiini nirvahinchaayi, emm3-pootii nundi 111 time sireesnu upayoginchaayi (adhe dayta kaadu, endukante idhi samayaniki maarchabadindi, conny adhe muulaalu). nn-3 pootiiloo uttama aann-aadhaarita anchanaalu baga telisina anchanaa paddhathulatho polchadaginavigaa panicheesaayani, conny ganana paramgaa chaalaa teevramgaa unnayani kanugonnaru. manchi paniteeruku ekkuva "saiddhaantika" saamarthyam unnappatikee, aneka aann-aadhaarita paddhatulu saadhaarana anchanaa paddhatula kante chaalaa ghoramgaa panicheesaayani kooda gamaninchabadindi.
swaagatam.
bhaarii prekshakula kosam pustakaalalo.
nassim nicolus taylub thana pustakam "dhi block swan" loe makaradakis pootiilanu eee krindi vidhamgaa prastaavinchaaruh "vaastava prapanchamlo vidya paddhatulu elaa panicheestaayaneedaaniki atyanta aasaktikaramaina pareekshanu spiros makaradakis andinchaaru, ayana thana kereerlo kontha bhaganni econometrics anie piluvabade" shaastreeya paddhati "nii abhyasinche bhavishya suuchakula madhya pootiilanu nirvahinchadamlo gadiparu-idhi aardhika siddhaantaanni ganaanka kolatalato militam chese vidhanam. saralamgaa cheppalante, athanu prajalanu "nija jeevitamlo" anchanaa vaesaadu, aapai vaari khachitatvanni nirnayinchaadu. idhi athanu nirvahinchina "emm-pootiila" shreniki daariteesindi, indulo michel hibbon sahayamtho, emm3 moodavadi mariyu iteevalidi, 1999loe puurtayimdi. makaradakis mariyu hibbon "ganankaparamga adhunaatanamaina mariyu sanklishtamaina paddhatulu saralamaina vaati kante marinta khachitamaina anchanaalanu andinchaalsina avasaram ledhu" anae vichaarakaramaina nirdhaaranaku vachayi.""
pratidee spashtamgaa undhi" anae pustakamlo, dunken wats makaradakis mariyu hiban yokka panini udaharistuu, "saralamaina namuunaalu aardhika kaala shrenini anchanaa veyadamlo sanklishtamaina namuunaala vale manchivi" anie chuupimchaaru."

