
dutch pustakam

joodamlo, dutch pustakam ledhaa taalam anedi judagallu pandem vese sanghatana (gurrapu pandem, udaaharanaku) phalitamtho sambandham lekunda-judagalla kharchutho-bookmaker labham pondela chese, bookmaker erpaatu chesina asamaanatalu mariyu pandemla samiti. idhi asamaanatalu pondikagaa lekapovadam dwara suchinchabade sambhaavyatatoo mudipadi untundi.
aardhika saastramlo, eee padam saadhaaranamgaa oka paksham marinta adhvaannamgaa, maroka paksham marinta merugaina sthithilo undela chese lavadevila shrenini suuchistumdi. viniyogadaarula empika siddhaantamlo vilakshanhamaina anchanaalu evarainaa dutch-book cheyabadavachhu anae avakaasaanni tosipuchutayi.
tatvasaastramlo idhi nammakaala yokka khachitatva sthaayilanu anveshinchadaaniki upayoginchabadutundi. 
eee padam yokka vyutpatti saastrampai etuvanti ekaabhipraayam ledhu.
joodam aadataaru.
dutch pustaka vaadana yokka pradhana amsam emitante, hetubaddhamaina vyaktulu yaadruchchika sanghatanalaku aatmaasraya sambhaavyatanu kaligi undaali, mariyu eee sambhaavyatalu sambhaavyata yokka praamaanika suutraalanu santrupti parachali. vastunishtavaadulu sambhaavyata yokka pounahpunya siddhaanta nirvachanaalanu vishwasistaaru, ivi naanem tippadam vanti sanghatanala yokka vastunishtha phalitaalanu suuchistaayi. idhi gurrapu pandeelu vanti yaadruchchika sanghatanalaku sambhaavyatanu nirvachinchadamlo samasyanu srushtistundi-deerghakaalamlo vijayala nishpattiki anugunamgaa unde sambhaavyatanu telusukovadaaniki memu oke paristhitulalo eeventnu punaraavrutam cheyalemu.
sambhaavyatanu nammakaala dwara nirvachinchavacchani aatmaasrayavaadulu vaadistaaru. nammakalu chaalaa aspashtamgaa mariyu sambhaavyata kosam upayoginchadaaniki gunaatmakamgaa unnayani vastunishtavaadulu chebutaaru. dutch pustaka vaadana (sambandhita manee pump vaadananu kooda chudandi) sambhaavyata gurinchi nammakalu parimanatmakamga undaali mariyu praamaanika sambhaavyata suutraalanu santrupti parachalani choopinchadam lakshyamgaa pettukundi. aatmaasraya sambhaavyata unna vyaktulu eee sambhaavyata aadhaaramgaa sarasamaina pandem vaeyadaaniki siddhamgaa untaarani modata bhaavinchadam dwara idhi jarugutundi. appudu eee aatmaasraya sambhaavyatalu sambhaavyata suutraalanu santrupti parachakapothe, yaadruchchika sanghatanala phalitamtho sambandham lekunda, eee "asambaddhamaina" nammakaala holderku khachitamaina nashtalanu nirdhaarinche pandemla sekarana-memu oka "dutch book" nuu srushtinchagalamani choopabadindi. chaalaa mandhi joodam aadaru anie abhyantaram vyaktam cheyavachu. prajalu nijamgaa pandem vestara ledhaa anae daanitoe sambandham lekunda, nashtanni nirdhaarinche pandem uniki ahetukataku sanketam anie aatmaasrayavaadulu pratispandistaaru.
oka udaaharanalo, oka bookmaker eee krindi asamaanatalanu andinchaadu mariyu prati gurrampai oka pandem aakarshinchadu, dheeni saapeksha parimaanaalu phalitaanni asambaddhamgaa chestaayi. suuchimchina sambhaavyatalu, i.ii. prati gurram gelavadaniki sambhaavyata, 1 kante ekkuva sankhyaku jodinchandi.
eee udaaharanalo yea gurram gelichinaa, bookmaker $200 chellistaadu (gelichina vatanu tirigi ivvadamtho sahaa)-conny punter $210 pandem vestaadu, anduvalla resulo $10 nashtam kaligistaadu.
ayithe, gurram 4nii upasamharinchukunte mariyu bookmaker itara asamaanatalanu sardubaatu cheyakapothe, suuchimchina sambhaavyata 0.95 varaku perugutundi. atuvanti sandarbhamlo, oka judagadu migilina moodu gurraalapai varusaga $100, $50 mariyu $40 pandem veyadam dwara ellappuduu $10 labhanni pondavacchu, mariyu upasamharinchukunna gurrampai $20 pandem veyaalsina avasaram ledhu, idhi ippudu gelavaledu.
maroe avakaasam emitante, vankara judagadu ishtamaina vaarini naasanam cheyadam dwara oka resunu saricheyadam. ishtamaina gurram pootiini asamaanatalatoe (1-1 asamaanatala kante takkuva) praarambhistae, migilina gurralu laabhaaniki haamii ivvadaaniki, yea gurram gelichinaa, vaati asamaanatalaku anugunamgaa pandem veyavachu.
gurralu mugise kramaanni anchanaa veyadam vanti anyadesa pandem meeda asambaddhamaina asamaanatalu andinchinappudu itara rakaala dutch pustakaalu undavacchu. pootii sthira-auds joodam electronicga andinchabadatamto, judagallu konnisaarlu vividha bookmakerla nundi uttama asamaanatalanu enchukovadam dwara dutch pustakaanni srushtinchavachu, phalitamgaa madhyavartitva karyakalapalanu chepattavachhu. sambhaavya labhanni tolaginchadaaniki, demand drishtya andinche asamaanatalanu sardubaatu cheyadam dwara bukeelu pratispandinchaali.
biasian sambhaavyatalo, fraank p. ramse mariyu bruno dii finetti vyaktigata sthaayi nammakam pondikainadigaa undaali, tadwara vaariki vyatiraekamgaa dutch pustakam tayaaru cheyabadadu, yea vidhamaina pandem vesina. dheeniki avasaramaina mariyu taginanta sharatulu emitante, vaari vishwaasa sthaayilu sambhaavyata yokka suutraalanu santrupti parachadam (parimita sankalanamtho matrame).
aardhikasaastram.
aardhika saastramlo, viniyogadaaru x nuu dutch-book cheyagala paristhitiki uttama udaaharana vaariki asthiramaina praadhaanyatalu unte. eee viniyogadaaruniki, b kante a kii praadhaanyata istaarani anukundam, c kante b kii praadhaanyata istaarani anukundam, mariyu a kante c kii praadhaanyata istaarani anukundam. appudu janabhalo verokari vadda, y, eee vastuvulalo okati undani anukundam. saadhaaraneekarananu kolpokunda, y kii manchi a undani anukundam. appudu y modata b + ε kosam a nundi x kii vikrayinchavacchu; taruvaata c + ε kosam b nundi x kii vikrayinchavacchu; taruvaata a + ε kosam c nundi x kii vikrayinchandi, ikkada ε anedi sankhyalo kontha chinna mottam. eee lavadevila kramam taruvaata, x 3·ε nundi y kii pratiphalamgaa aemee ivvaledu. eee paddhati oka dabbu pampu, ikkada x yokka asthira praadhaanyatalanu sadviniyogam chesukovadam dwara y madhyavartitva-avakaasaanni upayoginchi x nii upayoginchukuntundi.
aardhikavettalu saadhaaranamgaa x vanti praadhaanyatalu unna vyaktulu tama sampada mottaanni marketlo vaari nundi teesukuntaarani vaadistaaru. idhe jarigithe, prajalanu dutch-book cheyadaaniki anumatinche antaraayaalu ledhaa itara lakshanaalatoo praadhaanyatalanu memu gamaninchamu. ayithe, prajalu tama asthiratala gurinchi kontha adhunaatanamgaa unte mariyu/ledhaa madhyavartula pootii epsilaannu sunnaki nadipiste, "praamaanikam kaani" praadhaanyatalu ippatikee gamaninchadaginavi kaavacchu.