
venukabadina prerana

backward induction anedi saraina charyala kramaanni nirnayinchadaaniki, oka samasya ledhaa paristhiti mugimpu nundi, samayaniki venukaku tarkinche prakriya. idhi nirnayam teesukovalasina chivari amsaanni pariseelinchadam dwara, aaa samayamlo yea charya atyanta sarainado gurtinchadam dwara munduku saagutundi. eee samacharanni upayoginchi, nirnayam teesukunna rendava nundi chivari samayamlo emi cheyaalo nirnayinchavacchu. saadhyamayye prati paristhitiki uttama charyanu nirnayinche varaku eee prakriya venukaku konasaagutundi (i.ii. saadhyamayye prati samacharam kosam) prati samayamlo. venukabadina prerananu modatisaarigaa 1875loe orther kylie upayoginchaaru, athanu aprasiddha karyadarshi samasyanu parishkarinchadaaniki prayatnistunnappudu eee paddhatini kanugonnadu.
dynamic prograaming yokka ganita optimisation paddhatiloo, bellman sameekaranaanni parishkarinchadaaniki venukabadina prerana pradhana paddhatullo okati. aata siddhaantamlo, backward induction anedi varusa aatalalo subgame perfect equilibrianu lekkinchadaaniki upayoginche paddhati. oke thedaa emitante, optimisationlo prati samayamlo emi cheyaalo enchukune oka nirnayaadhikaari matrame untaaru, ayithe game theory aneka mandhi aatagaalla nirnayaalu elaa sankarshana chendutayo vislaeshistumdi. antey, prati paristhitiloo chivari aatagadu emi chestado oohinchadam dwara, rendava nundi chivari aatagadu emi chestado nirnayinchadam saadhyamavutundi. svayamchaalaka pranaalika mariyu scheduling mariyu svayamchaalaka siddhaantam rujuvu chese sambandhita rangaalalo, eee paddhatini venukabadina shodhana ledhaa venukabadina golusu antaaru. chadarangamlo dheenini tirogamana vislaeshanha antaaru.
aata siddhaantam unnanta kaalam atalanu parishkarinchadaaniki venukabadina prerana upayoginchabadindi. zaan vaan neuman mariyu oskar morgenstern tama "theory off games und economic behaviour" (1944) loe sunna-mottam, iddaru vyaktula atalanu venukabadina prerana dwara parishkarinchaalani suuchimchaaru, eee pustakam game theoryni adhyayana rangamgaa sthaapinchindi.
nirnayam teesukovadamlo venukabadina preranah oka optimal-stopping samasya.
maroe padeellu pani cheyagala nirudyogi vyaktini pariganinchandi "t" = 1,2..10. vaaru nirudyogulugaa unna prati samvatsaram, vaariki $100 chellinche 'manchi' udyogam ledhaa samaana sambhaavyatatoo (50/50) $44 chellinche 'chedu' udyogam ivvabadutundani anukundam. okasari vaaru udyogam angeekarinchina tarvaata, migilina padeella paatu vaaru aaa udyogamlone untaaru. (saralata kosam vaaru tama dravya aadaayaala gurinchi matrame pattinchukuntaaru, mariyu vaaru ververu samayaallo aadaayaalanu samanamga viluvainaviga bhaavistaaru, antey.ii., taggimpu raetu okati.)
eee vyakti chedu udyogaalanu angeekarinchala? eee prasnaku samadhanam ivvadaaniki, manam samayam "t" = 10 nundi venukaku tarkinchavacchu.
okaru 9 ledhaa 10 saarlu nirudyogulugaa untene chedu pratipaadanalanu angeekarinchaalani venukaku panicheyadam konasaginchadam dwara dhruveekarinchavachu; vaatini "t" = 8 varaku anni samayaallo tiraskarinchaali. antar drushti emitante, evarainaa ekkuva kaalam udyogamlo panicheyaalani aasiste, idhi yea udyogaanni angeekarinchaalane daani gurinchi enchukovadam marinta viluvainadigaa chestundi.
eee rakamaina dynamic optimisation samasyanu optimal stopping problem anie pilustaaru, endukante merugaina offer kosam eppudu vechi undaalanedi chetilo unna samasya. shodhana siddhaantam anedi konugolu, udyoga shodhana mariyu vivaham vanti sandarbhaalaku eee rakamaina samasyalanu vartimpajese suukshma aardhika shaastra rangam.
aata siddhaantamlo venukabadina prerana.
aata siddhaantamlo, backward induction anedi oka parishkara bhavana. idhi aata yokka vistrutamaina-roopam praatinidhyamlo vyaktigata samachara samitulaku sunnitamaina hetubaddhata bhavana yokka merugudala. backward induction aalochana icchina game treeloni prati samaachaaraaniki saraina charyanu gurtinchadam dwara varusa hetubaddhatanu upayogistundi.
joel watson rachinchina "vyuham aata siddhaantaaniki parichayam" loe, venukabadina prerana prakriyanu ilaa nirvachinchaaruh "chivari nundi modati varaku aatanu vislaeshimchae prakriya. prati desition node vadda, aadhipatyam chelaayinche evaina charyalanu parigananaloki teesukunte, varasudu nodes vadda gurtinchina charyala aata dwara cherukogala terminal nodesnu batti.anie paerkonnaaru.
backward induction vidhanam yokka oka lopam emitante, dheenini parimita taragatula atalaku matrame vartimpajeyavachu. upayogaaniki sambandham laeni khachitamaina samacharam yokka edainaa aataku eee vidhanam baga nirvachinchabadindi. idhi taisto khachitamaina samacharam gala atalaku kooda baga nirvachinchabadindi mariyu ardhavantamainadi. ayithe, idhi okati kante ekkuva vyuuhaatmaka prophyllaku daariteestundi. eee vidhananni chinnapati samachara samitulatoe konni atalaku vartimpajeyavachu, conny idhi saadhaaranamgaa nammadaganidi. khachitamaina samaachaaramtho atalanu parishkarinchadaaniki eee vidhanam baga saripotundi. anduvalla, prati nirnayam nodlo itara aatagaalla charyalu mariyu chellimpula gurinchi aatagaallandarikii teliyakapothe, venukabadina prerana antha sulabhamgaa vartinchadu. (watson pg.188)
backward induction vidhananni oka saadhaarana udaaharanhatho pradarsinchavacchu.
game theorylo backward induction multy-stage game.
pratipaadita aata iddaru aatagaallato kuudina bahula-dasala aata. aatagaallu oka cinema chudalani plaan chestunnaru. prastutam, joker mariyu terminator anae 2 sinimaalu baga prachuryam pondaayi. player 1 terminatornu chudalanukuntunnadu mariyu player 2 jokarnu chudalanukuntunnadu. aatagadu 1 modata ticket koni, kreedaakaarudu 2kii aame empika gurinchi chebutundi. appudu, aatagadu 2 thana tiketnu konugolu chestaadu. vaariddaruu empikalanu gamaninchina tarvaata, vaaru chitraaniki vellala ledhaa intlone undala anae daanipai empikalu chestaaru. modati dasha maadirigaane, aatagadu 1 modata enchukuntaadu. aatagadu 1 yokka empikanu gamaninchina tarvaata aatagadu 2 thana empikanu chestaadu.
eee udaaharana kosam, vividha dasalalo chellimpulu jodinchabadatayani memu bhaavistaamu. eee aata oka khachitamaina samachara aata.
saadhaarana-roopam maatrikah
vistrutamaina-roopam praatinidhyamh
eee bahula-dasala aatanu parishkarinchadaaniki dasalu, kudi vaipuna kanipinche vistrutamaina roopamtho
game theorylo backward induction dhi ultimatum game.
backward induction anedi aatanu chivari nundi modati varaku vislaeshimchae prakriya. itara naash samathoulyaanni parishkarinchetappudu, aatagaalla hetubaddhata mariyu puurti ghnaanam oohinchabadutundi. venukaku prerana anae bhavana, prati kreedaakaarini oka empikanu enchukunnappudu prati nirnayam nodto hetubaddhamgaa vyavaharistundani saadhaarana ghnaanam anae eee oohaku anugunamgaa untundi-aame hetubaddhata atuvanti nodku cherukoledani suuchimchinappatikii.hetubaddhata yokka paraspara ooha prakaram, kabatti, venukabadina prerana prati aatagadu aata yokka prati dasalo vaari pratyarthi emi chestado khachitamgaa anchanaa vaeyadaaniki anumatistundi.
backward inductiontho subgame paripuurna samatulyatanu parishkarinchadaaniki, aatanu vistrutamaina roopamlo vraasi, aapai sabgemlugaa vibhajinchaali. prarambha node ledhaa prarambha sthaanam nundi chaalaa dhooramlo unna sabgemto praarambhinchi, eee subgame kosam jabita cheyabadina aasinchina chellimpulu baruvugaa untaayi mariyu hetubaddhamaina aatagadu tamaku ekkuva chellimputho empikanu enchukuntaadu. atyadhika chellimpu vector empika cheyabadutundi mariyu gurtinchabadutundi. prarambha sthaanaaniki cherukune varaku subgame nundi sabgemku nirantaram venukaku panicheyadam dwara subgame paripuurna samatulyata kosam parishkarinchandi. eee prakriya munduku saagutunna koddi, mea prarambha vistrutamaina roopam aata chinnadigaa mariyu chinnadigaa maarutundi. vectorla yokka gurtinchabadina maargam subgame perfect samathoulyam.
ultimatum aataku backered induction vartinchabadutundi
iddaru aatagaalla madhya oka aata gurinchi aalochinchandi, indulo aatagadu 1 aatagadu 2thoo dollarnu vibhajinchaalani pratipaadistaadu. idhi oka prasiddha, asamaana aata, dheenini varusaga ultimatum game anie pilustaaru. aatagadu okaru dollarnu vaaru taginatlugaa bhaavinchinappatikii vibhajinchadam dwara modata vyavaharistaaru. ippudu, rendava aatagadu vaaru modati aatagadu vyavaharinchina bhaganni angeekarinchavacchu ledhaa vibajananu tiraskarinchavacchu. aatagadu 2 vibajananu angeekaristhe, aaa vibhajana prakaram aatagadu 1 mariyu aatagadu 2 iddarikee chellimpu labhistundi. aatagadu 1 yokka pratipaadananu tiraskarinchaalani rendava aatagadu nirnayinchukunte, appudu iddaru aatagallaku aemee raadu. maroe maatalo cheppalante, player 1 pratipaadita ketayinpupai player 2kii veeto adhikaram undhi, ayithe veeto vartimpajeyadam valla iddaru aatagallaku edainaa bahumatini tolagistundi. anduvalla eee aata yokka vyuuhaatmaka profilenu 0 mariyu 1 madhya unna anni x laku jatalugaa (x, f (x)) vraayavacchu, ikkada f (x) anedi x aamodinchabadinda ledhaa anie vyakteekarinchae dvi-viluva function.
aatagadu 1 icchina edainaa ekapaksha pratipaadananu batti aatagadu 2 yokka empika mariyu pratispandananu pariganinchandi, offer $0 kante peddadani bhaavinchi. backward induction upayoginchi, aatagadu 2 $0 kante ekkuva ledhaa samaanamaina edainaa chellimpunu angeekarinchaalani memu khachitamgaa aasistaamu. tadanugunamgaa, aatagadu 1 vibhajanalo ekkuva bhaganni pondadaaniki aatagadu 2nii veelainanta takkuvagaa ivvamani pratipaadinchaali. aatagadu 1 aatagaadiki 2kii athi chinna dabbunu ivvadam mariyu migilina vaatini athani/aame kosam unchadam anedi pratyaekamaina upa aata paripuurna samatulyata. ultimatum aatalo aneka itara naash equilibrialu unnaayi, ivi subgame perfect kaadu mariyu anduvalla backward induction avasaram ledhu.
anantamaina atalanu parigananaloki teesukunnappudu venukabadina prerana yokka upayogaaniki ultimatum game oka udaaharana; ayithe, aata yokka siddhaantaparamgaa anchanaa vesina aata phalitaalu vimarsinchabaddaayi. anubhavika, prayogaatmaka aadharalu pratipaadakudu chaalaa arudugaa $0 andistaadani mariyu aatagadu 2 konnisaarlu $0 kante ekkuva aafarlanu tiraskaristaadani choopinchaayi, bahusha sarasata aadhaaramgaa. aatagadu 2 dwara nyayamga pariganinchabadedi sandarbhaanni batti maarutundi mariyu itara aatagaalla ottidi ledhaa uniki antey aata siddhaanta namuunaa nijamaina vyaktulu denini enchukuntaarani tappanisarigaa anchanaa veyalemani ardham.
aacharanalo, subgame paripuurna samatulyata ellappuduu saadhinchabadadu. american behavioural economic ayina cameror prakaram, player 2 "daadaapu sagam samayam x loe 20 saatam kante takkuva aafarlanu tiraskaristundi, ayinappatikee avi aemee lekunda untaayi.venukabadina prerana pratispandinchevaaru sunnaki samaanamaina ledhaa anthakante ekkuva edainaa pratipaadananu angeekaristaarani anchanaa vestundi, pratispandinchevaaru vaastavaaniki hetubaddhamaina aatagaallu kaadu, anduvalla sambhaavya dravya laabhaala kante 'fairness' offer gurinchi ekkuvagaa shraddha vahistunnatlu anipistundi.
centipeed aatanu kooda chudandi.
aardhika saastramlo venukabadina preranah pravesha-nirnayam samasya.
aatagaallu oka parisramalo prastuta samsthagaa mariyu aaa parisramalo sambhaavya pravesam kaligina dynamic gemnu pariganinchandi. prastutamunnatlugaa, prastuta udyogiki parisramapai guttadhipatyam undhi mariyu pravesinchinavaariki daani market vatalo kontha bhaganni kolpovadam ishtam ledhu. pravesam cheyani vyakti pravesinchakudadani enchukunte, adhikaariki chellimpu ekkuvagaa untundi (idhi daani guttadhipatyanni nirvahistundi) mariyu pravesam chese vyakti nashtapodu ledhaa labhapadadu (daani chellimpu sunna). pravesinchevaaru pravesinchinatlayite, aaa padavini aakraminchinavaru pravesinche vaaritho "pooraadavachu" ledhaa "vasati kalpinchavacchu". idhi daani dharanu tagginchadam dwara, pravesinchina vyaktini vyaparam nundi bayataku teeyadam dwara (mariyu nishkramana kharchulu-pratikuula chellimpu) mariyu daani swantha laabhaalanu debbateeyadam dwara pooraadutundi. idhi pravesinchevaariki vasati kalpiste, adhi daani ammakaalalo kontha bhaganni kolpotundi, conny adhika dhara nirvahinchabadutundi mariyu daani dharanu tagginchadam dwara kante ekkuva laabhaalanu pondutundi (conny guttadhipatya laabhaala kante takkuva).
pravesinchevaaru pravesinchinatlayite daaniki anugunamgaa undatam anedi adhikaariki uttama pratispandana avtunda anie pariganinchandi. okavela aaa adhikari vasati kalpiste, pravesinchevaari nundi uttama pratispandana pravesinchadam (mariyu labham pondadam). anduvalla pravesinchevaaru pravesinche vyuuhaatmaka profile mariyu pravesinchevaaru pravesinchinatlayite aaa vyakti vasati kalpinche vyuuhaatmaka profile anedi venukabadina preranaku anugunamgaa unde naash samathoulyam. ayithe, adhikara pratinidhi poraadabotunnatlayite, pravesinchani vyakti yokka uttama pratispandana, mariyu pravesinchina vyakti pravesinchakapothe, pravesinche vyakti pravesinche oohaatmaka sandarbhamlo badhyudu emi enchukunna adhi pattimpu ledhu. anduvalla pravesinchevaaru pravesinchinappatiki pravesinchevaaru pravesinchakapothe prastuta vyakti porade vyuuhaatmaka profile kooda naash samathoulyam. ayithe, pravesinchinavaaru vichalanam chesi, pravesinchinatlayite, adhikaariki uttama pratispandana emitante-poraatam yokka muppu nammadaginadi kaadu. anduvalla eee rendava naash samathoulyaanni backward induction dwara tolaginchavacchu.
prati nirnayam teesukune prakriyaloo (subgame) naash samathoulyaanni kanugonadam anedi khachitamaina subgame samathoulyamgaa untundi. anduvalla, subgame paripuurna samatulyatanu varninche eee vyuuhaatmaka profile pravesinchevaarini "bhayapettadaaniki" upayoginche nammasakyam kaani bedirimpulu vanti charyala avakaasaanni minahaayistaayi. okavela pravesakunito dharala yuddhanni praarambhistaamani adhikara pratinidhi bediriste, vaaru tama dharalanu guttadhipatya dhara nundi pravesakula dhara kante konchem takkuvagaa taggistaamani bediristunnaru, idhi pravesinchinavaariki dharala yuddham jaragadani teliste aacharana saadhyam kaadu, idhi nammasakyam kaadu, endukante idhi rendu paarteelaku nashtalaku daariteestundi. saadhyamkaani ledhaa sarainavi kaani samathoulyaanni kaligi unna oke agent optimisation maadirigaa kakunda, oka subgame khachitamaina samathoulyam maroka aatagadi charyalaku kaaranamavutundi, tadwara yea aatagadu porapaatuna sabgemku cherukokunda chusukuntadu. eee sandarbhamlo, backward induction khachitamaina subgame samathoulyaanni istundi, idhi vyuuhaatmaka profile uttama pratispandana kaadani telusukuni pravesinche vyakti yokka muppu gurinchi oppinchabadakunda chusukuntundi.
backward induction paradox oohinchani uri.
oohinchani velaadutunna vairudhyam anedi venukabadina preranaku sambandhinchina vairudhyam. vachhe vaaram somavaaram mariyu sukravaaram madhya eppudaina aamenu uriteestaarani khaideeki cheppabadindani anukundam. ayithe, khachitamaina roeju aascharyakaramgaa untundi (i.ii. marusati roeju aamenu uriteestaarani mundu raatri aameku teliyadu). khaidi, thana urisikshanu adhigaminchadaaniki aasakti kaligi, yea rojuna uri teeyabadutundo nirnayinchadaaniki prayatnistaadu.
adhi sukravaaram naadu jaragaledani aame kaaranamavutundi, endukante adhi guruvaram chivari natiki jaragakapothe, urisiksha sukravaaram naadu untundani aameku telusu. anduvalla, aame sukravaaramni oka avakaasamgaa tolaginchavacchu. sukravaaram tolaginchabadinappudu, adhi guruvaram jaragakudadani aame nirnayinchukuntundi, endukante adhi budhavaram kakapoyi unte, adhi guruvaram ayi undalsi untundani aameku telustundi. anduvalla, aame guruvaram tolaginchavacchu. aame anni avakaasaalanu tolaginche varaku eee tarkam konasaagutundi. vachhe vaaram tananu uriteeyabomani aame teelchi chebutundi.
aamenu aascharyapariche vidhamgaa, aamenu budhavaram uriteestaaru. thana maranasikshaku kaaranamayye teliyani bhavishyat amsam tanaku khachitamgaa teluso ledho oohinchi aame porapaatu chesindi.
ikkada khaidi venukabadina prerana dwara kaaranaalanu chebutaaru, conny tappudu nirdhaaranaku vachinatlu anipistundi. ayithe, samasya yokka vivarana venukabadina prerananu pradarsistunna vyaktini aascharyapariche avakaasam undani bhaavistundani gamaninchandi. venukabadina prerana yokka ganita siddhaantam eee oohanu cheyadu, kabatti eee siddhaantam yokka phalitaalanu paradox prasninchadu. edemaina, eee vairudhyam tatvavettalache kontha gananeeyamaina charchanu pondindi.
venukabadina prerana mariyu hetubaddhata yokka saadhaarana ghnaanam.
iddaru aatagaallu hetubaddhamgaa untene backward induction panichestundi, antey.ii.ellappuduu vaari pratiphalaanni garishtamgaa penche charyanu enchukondi. ayithe, hetubaddhata saripodu prati aatagadu migataa aatagallandaru hetubaddhamainavaarani kooda nammali. idhi kooda saripodu prati aatagadu migataa aatagaallandarikii migataa aatagallandaru hetubaddhamainavaarani telusani nammali. mariyu modalainavi anantam. maroe maatalo cheppalante, hetubaddhata anedi saadhaarana ghnaanam ayi undaali.
parimita venukabadina prerana.
parimita venukabadina prerana anedi puurtigaa hetubaddhamaina venukabadina prerana nundi vaidolagadam. idhi khachitamaina dooradrushti lekunda backward induction yokka kramabaddhamaina prakriyanu amalu cheyadaanni kaligi untundi. siddhaantaparamgaa, okati ledhaa anthakante ekkuva mandhi aatagallaku parimita dooradrushti unnappudu mariyu anni terminal nodla dwara backward induction cheyalenappudu idhi jarugutundi. parimita venukabadina prerana yokka prabhavalu taruvaati kalallo marinta saktivantamgaa untaayi kabatti parimita venukabadina prerana sudeergha aatalalo chaalaa pedda paatra poeshistumdi.
centipeed aata vanti varusa berasaaraala aatalalo, subjectlu saiddhaantika anchanaala nundi vaidoligi, badulugaa parimita venukabadina preranalo paalgontaayani prayogaalu choopinchaayi. eee vichalanam parimita hetubaddhata phalitamgaa sambhavistundi, ikkada aatagaallu konni dasalanu matrame khachitamgaa chudagalaru. idhi nirnayaalalo oohinchalenidi mariyu subgame perfect naash samathoulyaanni kanugonadamlo mariyu saadhinchadamlo asamarthatanu anumatistundi.
eee drugvishayaaniki moodu vistruta parikalpanalu unnaayi;
venukabadina prerana ullanghanalaku pradhanamgaa saamaajika karakalu undatam kaaranamani cheppavacchu. ayithe varusa berasaaraala aatala kosam dayta-aadhaarita namuunaa anchanaalu (abhignaa sopanakrama namuunaanu upayoginchadam) konni aatalalo parimita venukabadina prerana undatam aadhipatya paatra pooshinchagaladani highlight chesaayi.
padepade jarige public goods aatalalo, jattu pravartana parimita venukabadina prerana dwara prabhaavitamavutundi; ikkada jattu sabhyula prarambha sahakaram mugimpulo sahakaram kante ekkuvagaa undani spashtamavutundi. parimita venukabadina prerana anedi jatla praja vastuvula aatalo free-riding elaa kramam tappakunda jarugutundo kooda prabhaavitam chestundi. praarambhamlo parimita venukabadina prerana yokka prabhavalu takkuvagaa unnappudu free-riding takkuvagaa untundi, ayithe chivaralo, prabhavalu ekkuvagaa unnappudu, free riding marinta tarachugaa avutundi.
parimita venukabadina prerana kooda resu aata yokka oka roopaantaram lopala pareekshinchabadindi. aatalo, aatagaallu varusaga oka paridhiloo puurnaamkaalanu enchukuntaaru mariyu lakshya sankhyanu cherukune varaku vaari empikalanu sankalanam chestaaru. lakshyanni taakadam valla aaa aatagaadiki bahumati labhistundi, marokaru odipotaru. atalu varusa dwara kontavaraku, oka chinna bahumati pravesapettabadindi. ekkuva mandhi aatagaallu appudu parimita venukabadina prerananu pradarsinchaaru, endukante vaaru asalu bahumati kosam kakunda chinna bahumati kosam parishkarinchaaru. aatagaallalo koddi mandhi matrame praarambhamlo rendu bahumatulanu pariganinchaaru.
venukabadina prerana yokka chaalaa pareekshalu prayogaalapai aadharapadi untaayi, indulo paalgonevaaru panini baga nirvahinchadaaniki prothsahinchabadaru ledhaa kontavaraku matrame prothsahinchabadaru. ayithe, adhika-vataa vaataavaranaalaloo venukabadina prerana ullanghanalu kooda saadhaaranam anipistaayi. american television game yokka pedda ettuna vislaeshanha dhara sarainadani choopistundi, udaaharanaku, parimita dooradrushti yokka sakshyanni andistundi. prati episodelo, pootiidaarulu shokes shodown nuu aadataaru, idhi khachitamaina samacharam yokka varusa aata, dheeni kosam backward induction dwara saraina vyuuhaanni kanugonavacchu. saraina pravartana nundi tarachugaa mariyu kramabaddhamaina vichalanalu pootiidaarulaloo gananeeyamaina nishpatti sarigga venukabadina preranalo viphalamavutundani mariyu aata yokka tadupari dasanu matrame mayopikalga pariganinchavacchani suuchistunnaayi.