
changla nirnay prakalp

good judgement project (jee. jeey. pii.) hii eka sanstha aahe jee "jaagtik ghatanancha andaj lavnyasathi gardichya buddhicha vapar karnyasathi" samarpit aahe. phillip eae. yanni tyachi saha-nirmiti kelee hotee. tetlock ('aanee' tadnya rajkiy nirnay 'chey lekhak), nirnay shastradnya barbara mailers aanee donn muur, heey serve pensylvania vidyapithatil pradhyapak aahet. 
haah prakalp buddhimatta pragat sanshodhan prakalp kriyakalap (aay. aii. aar. pii. aii.) chya ektrit aakasmik andaj (ess.) karyakramat sahbhagi mhanoon suru jhaala. tyanantar tyane vyavsayik upkramanparyant gardichi buddhi vadhavali, andajkartyanchi bharati kelee aanee bhavishyatil ghatanancha andaj lavnyasathi tyanchyamadhil sarvat aitihasikdrushtya achook andaj ektrit kele. bhakit heey bryer guna vaparoon kele jaatat. jee. jeey. pii. madheel sarvoch andajak heey 'pratyaksh vargikrut mahitee midvananya guptachar adhikadhyanpeksha 30 takke changle aahet."
itihas.
irpa (irpa-ess) yetheel ektrit aakasmik andaj (ess) karyakramachya sahkaryane julai 2011 madhye changla nirnay prakalp suru jhaala. pahili spardha september 2011 madhye suru jhaali. gjp hii arpa-paces spardhetil anek praveshkartyanpaiki eka hotee, jyat darvarshi bhoo-rajkiy ghatananvar sumare 100 teey 150 prashna vicharale jaat asat. jee. jeey. pii. sanshodhan chamoone mothya sankhyene pratibhavan haushi lokanna (bhoo-rajkiy vishay tadnyanaivadi) ekatra kele, tyanna sarvottam sarav andaj lavnyasathi aanee sandnyanatmak purvgrahanvar maat karnyasathi moolbhut shikavani dilee aanee andajkartyanche vaiyaktik andaj ekatra karnyasathi ektrikaran algoridam tayar kele. gjpne spardheche donhi hangam jinkale aanee itar konatyahi sanshodhan sanghapeksha 35 teey 72 takke adhik achook hote. 2013 chya unhalyapasun, jee. jeey. pii. haah ekmev sanshodhan sangh hota, jyala aay. aii. aar. pii.-ess. ajunahi nidhi puravat hota aanee jee. jeey. pii. sahbhaginna ekatmik sangharsh purvasoochana pranalimadhye pravesh hota.
lock.
jee. jeey. pii. chya saha-netyanmadhye phillip tetlock, barbara mailers aanee donn muur yancha samavesh aahe. sanketsthalavar saha-nete tasech david budescu, laile ungar, jonathan barren aanee andaj-bajar udhyojak emil sarvan-shriber yanchyasah ekoon 30 sangh sadasyanchi yadee aahe. sallagar mandalamadhye daniele kahneman, robbert jervice, jeey. scott armstrong, michael maubusin, carl spetzler aanee justine wolfers. yaa abhyasat svayamsevak andajak mhanoon hajaro lokanna kaam denyat aale. vyaktimatva-vaishishtyanchya chachanya, prashikshan paddhati aanee dhorane vaparoon jee. jeey. pii. madheel sanshodhak sarasari vyaktipeksha qamee sandnyanatmak purvagrah asalelya andajit sahbhaginchi nivad karoo shakale; jase andaj spardha suru rahili, sanshodhak tathakathit 'atee-andajak' chya gatanmadhye yaa vyaktinchi nivad aanakhi qamee karoo shakale. jee. jeey. pii. chya shevatchya hangamat ekoon 260 superforkasterchi yadee karnyat aalee.
sanshodhan.
changlya nirnayachya prakalpachya aadhare tyachyashi sambandhit lokanni lakshaniy pramanat sanshodhan kele aahe. aakadevari, manasshastra, prashikshan aanee vaiyaktik andajkartyanmadhil parasparsanvadachya vividh staranchya mishranacha vapar karoon salag anek varshe satatyane sarvottam andaj tayar keela gela, asey parinam darshavtat.
changla nirnay ink..
good judgement ink yaa navane julai 2015 madhye webwar good judgement prakalpachi vyavsayik upkramanchi suruvat jhaali. tyanchya sevanmadhye samanya swarsyachya prashnanvaril andaj, sanukool andaj aanee changlya nirnayachya andaj tantratil prashikshan yancha samavesh hoto. september 2015 pasoon, good judgement ink, good judgement open sitewar sarvajanik andaj spardha chalvat aahe. changlya nirnayachya prakalpapramane, changlya nirnayachya khulya jaaget bhoo-rajkiy aanee aarthik ghatanambaddal prashna asatat, jaree tyat aamche rajkaran, karamanook aanee khelambaddal dekhil prashna asatat.
prasarmadhyamanche vartankan.
daad economist' madhye jijepichi varanvar charcha jhaali aahe. jijepila 'daad newyork times', 'daad washington poost' aanee companymadhyehi samavisht kele gele aahe.astitvat aahe. aine. pii. aar. neey 2 april 2014 roji 'mhanje tumhala vatate qee tumhi see. aay. aii. ejantpeksha hushar aahat' yaa shirshakakhalil changlya nirnay prakalpavaril eka vibhag prasarit keela. 'financial timesney' 5 september 2014 roji jee. jeey. pii. varr eka lekh prakashit keela. 'washingtonian' neey 8 janewari 2015 roji jee. jeey. pii. chaa ullekh karnara eka lekh prakashit keela. bii. bii. see. aanee 'daad washington poost' neey anukrame 20,21 aanee 29 janewari 2015 roji jee. jeey. pii. varr lekh prakashit kele.
almanack auph menlo park' neey 29 janewari 2015 roji jee. jeey. pii. varr eka batami prakashit kelee. jee. jeey. pii. varr eka lekh 'philadelphiya inquirer' filichya portalvar prakashit jhaala.com, 4 februwari 2015 roji. 'visorh gating beyond group think too meek group smarter' yaa pustakat, irpne chalavalelya spardhet jijepicha sahbhag tapshilvar sanganara eka vibhag aahe. "aajche manasshastra" haah mailers aanee itaranchya lekhanacha saransh denara eka laghupat online prakashit jhaala., jeey jee. jeey. pii. chey mukhya nishkarsh purn karate.
yaa prakalpane tetlockche 2015 chey pustak tayar kele aanee danne gardnerne sahalekhak mhanoon 'superforkasting-daad aart andd science auph prediction' heey pustak lihile, jeey jijepichya detasah kelelya sanshodhanache mukhya nishkarsh ughad karate. saha-lekhak gardner yanni 2010 madhye aadhich eka pustak prakashit kele hote, jyat tetlockchya mageel sanshodhanacha hawala denyat aala hota, jyane jijepichya prayatnanche beej tayar kele. 26 september 2015 roji 'arthshastradnya' chya chhapil aavruttitil pustakachya punaravalokanat mukhya sankalpananvar charcha kelee aahe. wall street journalchya lekhat tyache varnan asey kele aaheh "daniele kahnemanchya" vichar, jalad aanee santh "nantar nirnay ghenyavarche sarvat mahattvache pustak."harvard business review" neey jorden elenbergchya "" kase chukiche nasaveh ganiteey vicharanchi shakti "" yaa pustakashi tyachi jodee kelee ".
30 september 2015 roji, aine. pii. aar. neey jee. jeey. pii. aanee 'superforkasting' yaa pustakavar kendrit 'collin messenro shhow' chaa eka bhag prasarit keela; yaa karyakramatil atithi tetlock, irpache digdarshak jayson matheney aanee superforkaster elen ritch hote.