
choodulla kaii.

hoott hand" ("hoott hand prathibhasam" allengil "hoott hand faalasi" ennum ariyappedunnu) munbu oru vaijnjaanika saamoohika pakshapathamaayi kanakkaakkappedunna oru prathibhaasamaan, vijayakaramaya phalam anubavikkunna oru vyakthikk thudarnnulla sramangalil vijayikkanulla saadhyatha kooduthalaanu. eee ashayam palappozhum sportsinum naipunyathe adisthaanamaakkiyulla jolikalkkum pothuve prayogikkunnu, ithu baaskattbolil ninnaan uthbhavikkunnath, avide oru shoottar avarude muun sramangal vijayichaal score cheyyaanulla saadhyatha kooduthalaanu; athaayath.iii., choodulla kaii ullappol.oru joliyile muun vijayam oru kalikkaarante maanasika manobhaavatheyum thudarnnulla vijaya nirakkineyum theerchayaayum maattaan kazhiyumenkilum, varshangalolam gaveshakar praayogikamaayi oru" "choodulla kaii" "yude thelivukal kandethiyilla, athu thettaanenn thallipparayunnu". ennirunnaalum, eee vishwaasam yadhaarthathil oru thettaano ennu pinneedulla gaveshanangal chodyam cheythu. aadhunika sthithivivarakkanakku vishakalanam upayogichu aduthide nadanna chila padanangal chila kaayika pravarthanangalil "choodulla kaii" ennathinu thelivukal nireekshichittundu; ennirunnaalum, mattu sameepakaala padanangal "choodulla kaii" ennathinu thelivukal nireekshichittilla. koodaathe, kalikkaarude oru cheria upavibhagam maathrame oru "choodulla kaii" kaanikkoo ennum angane cheiyunnavaril, vyaapthi (i.iii.choodulla kaii" yude prabhavam valuppam) cheruthayirikkum.
sidhaanthathinte vikasanam.
1985-ll "hoott hand inn basketball" paper puratthirangi.
1985ll thomas gilovic, amos twarsky, roobert valloon ennivarude oru prabandhathilaanu eee thettidhaarana aadyamaayi vivarichathu. hoott hand inn basketball" patanam basketball kalikkaarkku "hoott hands" undenna sidhaanthathe chodyam cheythu, avarude muun shoat vijayichaal kalikkaar vijayakaramaya shoat nadatthaan kooduthal saadhyathayundenna avakaashavaadamaayi paper nirvachichu. kramarahitavum kramarahithavumaaya sambhavangal shariyaayi manasilakkaanulla prathikarikkunnavarude kazhivillaayma patanam parishodhichu; ennamattathu sthithivivarakkanakku vivarangalekkurichulla oru vyakthiyude vidhiye thadassappeduthunnathupol, hoott hand faalasi kramarahithamaya sambhavangalekkurichu thettaaya anumanangal roopappeduthunnathinu aalukale nayikkum. moonnu gaveshakarum "nanayam valicheriyunnathine" kurichulla padanatthil oru udaaharanam nalkunnu; prathikarichavar thalayudeyum vaalukaludeyum cheria sequenceukal polum ekadesham 50 sathamaanam thalayum 50 sathamaanam vaalum aayirikkumenn prathekshikkunnu. nanayam eriyunnathil prayogikkunna tharatthilulla chinta reethi srishticha rund pakshapaathangal patanam nirddeshichu onnukil neenda thudarchaykku sesham thalakaludeyo vaalukaludeyo saadhyatha vardhikkunnuvennu vishwasikkaan ithu oru vyakthiye nayichekkaam (choothaattakkaarante bhrant ennariyappedunnu); allengil rund phalangaludeyum oru varii kramarahithamaya saambiline prathinideekarikkunnilla enna vishwaasam kaaranam kramarahithamaya nirasikkaan ithu oru vyakthiye preripikkum.
cornell, stanford kolejukalil ninnulla 100 basketball aaraadhakarude chodyaavaliyiloodeyaanu aadya patanam nadathiyathu. matoraal 1980-81 philadelphia 76ers-ll ninnulla kalikkaarude vyakthigatha recordukal nokki. moonnaamathe patanam free-throw daatta vishakalanam cheyyukayum naalaamathe patanam niyantritha shooting pareekshanathekkurinchumaayu. shottinu chuttumulla baahya gadakangal kramena illaathaakkuka ennathaayirunnu vyathyastha padanangalude kaaranam. udaaharanathinu, aadya padanatthil ethir teaminte prathirodha thanthravum shoat selection shoottare engane thadassappeduthumennathinu gadakamundu. randaamatheyum moonnaamatheyum shoat selection ghadakam edukkunnu, naalaamathethu geyim krameekaranavum shradha vyathichalippikkalum munbu soochippicha mattu baahya gadakangalum illaathaakkunnu. feeld golinteyum free throw shramangaludeyum phalangal parasparam swathanthramaanennu padanangal praadhamikamaayi kandethi. niyantritha shooting pareekshanam ulppedunna pilkkala padanangalil phalangal onnuthanneyaayirunnu; vyakthamayum, "choodulla" enna bodham hittukaloo misso pravachikkunnillenn gaveshakar nigamanam cheythu.
nirddeshicha vishadeekaranangal.
choodulla kaikal undennu aalukal vishwasikkunnathu enthukondaanennu gilovic rund vyathyastha vishadeekaranangal nalkunnu. aadyathethu, oru basketball geyim kaanunnathin munbu oru vyakthi varakal thirayunnathinodu pakshapaathaparamaayirikkaam ennathaanu. eee pakshapaatham avarude kazhchappadukaleyum kaliyekkurichulla oormmappeduthalineyum badhikkum (sthireekarana pakshapaatham). randaamathe vishadeekaranam aakasmika sequenceukal thirichariyaanulla aalukalude kazhivillaymayekkurichaanu. avar yadhaarthathil cheiyunnathinekkaal kooduthal oopshanukalkkidayil avasara sequenceukal marimari varumennu aalukal prathekshikkunnu. aakasmika sequenceukal valare koorthathaayi thonnam, athinaal avaa avasaram illaathava (clustering illusion) ennu thallikkalayunnu.
aalukal enthukondaanu choodulla kaii thettidhaaranaykku irayaakunnathu ennathinu niravadhi nirddishta vishadeekaranangalundu. alaan dii. praayam oru vyakthiyude vishwaasathe thettayi maattumenna ashayam kaastalum mattullavarum anweshichu. eee ashayam parishodhikkunnathinaayi gaveshakar oru cross-sekshanal patanam nadatthi, athil 22 muthal 90 vayass vare praayamulla 455 pankaalikale sample cheythu. eee pankaalikalkk oru chodyavali nalki, athinumumbu koleju, professional basketball geyimukalil oru kalikkaaranum avarude shottukal pareekshikkaan sramikkaathathinaal 100% undaakkillenn oru prompt nalki. chodyavali rund pradhana chodyangal chodichu (1) avasana rando moonno shottukal nashtamaayathinekkaal avasana rando moonno shottukal cheythathinu sesham oru basketball kalikkaaran oru shoat cheyyaan mikacha avasaramundo? (2) thudarchayaayi niravadhi shottukal cheytha oraalkk panthu kaimarunnathu pradhaanamaano?
aadya chodyathinu oru pankaali athe ennu utharam nalkiyittundo ennathaayirunnu chodyaavaliyude pradhana thalpparyam, ithu avar hoott hand faalasiyil vishwasikkunnuvennu soochippikkunnu. 70 vayassinu mukalilulla pankaalikal muthirnnavare apekshichu thettaaya dhaarana vishwasikkaan eratti saadhyathayundennu phalangal kaanichu, ithu prayamaaya vyakthikal huristic adisthaanamaakkiyulla prakriyakale kooduthal aashrayichirunnuvenn sthireekarikkunnu. praayamaayavarkk nalla vivarangal oormmikkaanulla saadhyatha kooduthalaanu, ithu cheruppakkaare apekshichu nettangalodu kooduthal samvedanakshamathayullavarum nashtangalodu kuravullavarumaakkunnu.
oru patanam hoott hand faalasiyude moolathe uchithamaaya reethiyil sequenceukal vilayiruthaanulla kazhivillaaymayil ninnaan ennu vilayiruthi. kramarahithamaya samvidaanangalum naipunyathil ninnu srishtikkappetta varikalum upayogichu choothaattakkaaranteyum choothaattakkaaranteyum thettidhaaranakal parishodhicha dussen kanakkinu perumatta, vaijnjaanika padanangalil ninnulla gaveshanam eee patanam samaaharichu. kramarahithamaya sequenceukal vilayiruthunnathinte kaaryatthil, aalukalkk kramarahithamaya sthithivivarakkanakku sariyaaya aashayamillennathaayirunnu pothuvaaya nigamanam. ellaatharam indriyaparavum aashayaparavumaaya vivarangalile paattenukal kaanunnathinaanu manushyar nirmmichirikkunnathe athu nigamanam cheythu.
gilovic, twersky, valloon padanangalude punarvisakalanam.
2018-ll miller sanjurjo gilovic, twersky, valloon (jidivi) ennivayude yadhaartha gaveshanathekkurichu oru puthiya vishakalanam prasidheekarikkukayum ithinu vipareethamaayi "strike shoottinginte ganyamaaya thelivukal" undennu nigamanam cheyyukayum cheythu. philadelphia 76ers-nte hitt paattenil hoott hand prathibhaasathinu theerchayaayum oru sthithivivarakkanakku adisthaanamundennu miller sanjurjo nigamanam cheythu.
oru strike oof missinu sesham oru hitt undakanulla saadhyathayekkaal hittukalude oru strikinu sesham oru hittinte saadhyatha kooduthalaanengil maathrame oru choodulla kaii undakaan kazhiyoo ennu jidivi anumaanichu. 76ers-nte hitt paattenil ithu nireekshikkaan kazhiyilla. melpparanja saadhyathakal kaaryamaaya vyathyasamilla. athinaal, choodulla kaii prathibhaasatthinte lakshanangalonnumillenn jidivi nigamanam cheythu. ennirunnaalum, jidiviyude anumaanam thettaanennum vaasthavathil, hittukalude oru parambaraykku sesham prathekshikkunna hittukalude nirakk oru parambaraykku sesham hittukalude nirakkinekkaal kuravaayirikkanamennum miller sanjurjo kaanikkunnu. athinaal, oru strikinu sesham nashtamakaanulla thulya nirakk oru choodulla kaiyude adayaalamaanu.
niravadhi hittukal/misukalkku sesham ennithudangunnathinaal jidivi oru sample pakshapaatham avatharippichathaayi miller sanjurjo prasthaavichu. miller sanjurjo oru hittinte oru parambaraykku (valia varakalkku praayogikamaayi) vishakalanaparamayi kaanikkunnath ithu kooduthal misukalodu pakshapaatham kaanikkunnu, kaaranam thudarnnulla saambilukalude ennam cheruthaanu (udha.jii. oru nyayamaaya naanayathinu 100 ll thaazhe). miller sanjurjo parayunnathanusarichu "sthirathayulla 50 sathamaanam (bernauli i.aii.dii.) 100 shottukal edutha shoottar, moonnu hittukalude oru parambaraye udan pinthudarunna pakuthiyolam shottukal undaakkunnu.
thudarpadanangal.
2003ll kohler, jeey. nadatthiya oru patanam. jeey. & koonli sii. eiii. professional baaskattbolile choodulla kaii parishodhikkaanaan ithu nadathiyathu. eee padanatthil 1994 muthal 1997 vareyulla enn. bii. eiii shooting malsarangalil ninnulla sinimakal gaveshakar parishodhichu. malsarangalude sinimakal padikkunnathiloode ellah shottukaliludaneelam oro shoottarilum thudarchayaaya aashrithathvathinte thelivukal kandethaanaakumenn gaveshakar pratheekshichu. oro shoottarinum 25 thudarchayaaya shottukalkkullil thudarchayaaya aashrithathvangalkkaayi avar tirayukayum choodulla prakadanam verthirikkunnathin vividha noothana saankethikavidyakal upayogikkukayum cheythu. hoott hand anusarichu oru kalikkaaran valare kurachu runs maathrame undaakoo, pakaram avarude hittukalum missum klastarukalilaayirikkanam.
avarude gaveshanathil rund kalikkaar maathrame undaayirunnulloo, avarkk aakasmikamaayi pratheekshichathilum valare kuranja runs maathrame undaayirunnulloo. oru shooterk aakasmikamaayi pratheekshichathilum kooduthal runs nedaanaayilla. shoottarmaaril pakuthiyolam perkkum (23ll 12 = 52 sathamaanam) pratheekshichathilum kuranja ransum pakuthiyolam perkku (23ll 11 = 48 sathamaanam) pratheekshichathilum kooduthal ransum undaayirunnu. shoottarmaarude hittukalum missum gaveshakar thaarathamyam cheythu. daatta choodulla kaiyinekkaal avasarathinu anusrithamaayirunnu. daattayekkurichulla avarude vishakalanathiloode hoott hand sidhaanthathe pinthunaykkunna onnum illennu nigamanam cheyyappettu.
choodulla kaii thettupattalilulla vishwaasam oru kalikkaarante vijayathekkurichulla daaranaye baadhikkunnuvenn oru patanam report cheythu.
oru choodulla kaii undo ennu parishodhikkunna sameepakaala gaveshanam.
sameepakaala gaveshanangal munkaala kandethalukale chodyam cheythu, pakaram oru choodulla kaii prathibhaasatthinte vishwaasathinu pinthuna kandethi.
monash sarvakalaashaalayile gaveshakaril ninnulla oru 2003 leeii prabandhatthil gilovich mattullavarum ingane rekhappeduthiyittundu. avarude swantham pareekshanangalude sthithivivarakkanakku shakti parishodhichilla. 1985leeii dattayekkurichu shakti vishakalanam nadathunnathiloode, philadelphia 76ers varakaliloode vedivachaalum, gilovic, valloon, twarsky ennivar aaa vastutha kandethiyekkaamennath valare saadhyathayillenn gaveshakar nigamanam cheythu.
2011 octoberil yaari, aisanmaan ennivarude oru prabandham, vyakthigatha thalatthil "hoott hand" prathibhaasathinu "sakthamaaya thelivukal" kaanikkunna 300,000-ladhikam enba free throkalude oru valia daattaasett kandethi. 2005 muthal 2010 vareyulla anchu pathiv enn. bii. eiii seasonukalil edutha ellah free throkalum avar vishakalanam cheythu. aadyathethinekkaal rund shoat parambarayil randaamathe shoat adikkaan kalikkaarude saadhyathakalil ganyamaaya vardhanayundennu avar kandethi. thudarchayaaya rund shottukalil, oru hittinethudarnnu randaamathe shoat adikkaanulla saadhyatha munbathe shoat nashtamaayathine apekshichu kooduthalaanennum avar kandethi.
2013 novemberil, stanford sarvakalaashaalayile gaveshakar mejar leag baseball ninnulla daatta upayogikkukayum patthu vyathyastha stattistikkal vibhagangalil hoott hand nilavilundennathinu "sakthamaaya thelivukal" undennu kandethukayum cheythu.
2014-ll, sloon sports analytics konfaransil avatharippicha moonnu harward birudadhaarikalil ninnulla oru prabandham, kalikkaarante shoat location defenderude sthaanavum polulla basketball geyimukalile variableukal aadyamaayi niyantrikkaan kazhiyunna noothana sthithivivarakkanakkukal upayogichukondu, oru "cheruthenkilum kaaryamaaya hoott-hand ephakt" kaanichu."
2015ll joshuva miller aadam sanjurjo nadatthiya 1985leeii padanatthil 1985leeii padanatthinte reethishaasthrathil kurravukal kandethukayum vaasthavathil choodulla kaikal nilanilkkaamenn kaanikkukayum cheythu. pakaram sthithivivarakkanakku saankethikavidyakalude thettaaya prayogam ithinu kaaranamaayekkaamenn gaveshakar paranju. baaskattbolil choodulla kaii undennu aalukal vishwasikkunnathu sariyaanennu rachayithakkal nigamanam cheythu.
2021 leeii oru patanam, 1986-2020 kaalayalavile enba three-pooyint malsarangalil ninnulla daatta upayogichu, "vyakthikalkkidayilum athiludaneelavum hoott hand shoottinginte ganyamaaya thelivukal" kandethi.
ennirunnaalum, sameepakaalathe mattu padanangal "choodulla kaii" yude thelivukal nireekshichittilla. koodaathe, kalikkaarude oru cheria upavibhagam maathrame oru "choodulla kaii" kaanikkoo ennum angane cheiyunnavaril, vyaapthi (i.iii.choodulla kaii" yude prabhavam valuppam) cheruthayirikkum.
kaayikamallaatha sandarbhangalil.
upabhokthakkal.
kaayika enangal ozhikeyulla sthalangal choodulla kaii thettupattal baadhichekkaam. joseph johnson mattullavarum nadatthiya oru patanam. choodulla kaiyudeyum choothaattakkaaranteyum huristicsumaayi bandhappettathinal oru vyakthiyude vangalum vilppana swabhaavathinte savisheshathakal parishodhichu. oru upabhokthaav vipaniyile kramarahithamaya sambhavangal thettidharikkukayum oru cheria saambilinu adisthaana prakriya prathinideekarikkaan kazhiyumenna vishwaasam swaadheenikkukayum cheiyumbozhaanu iva randum sambhavikkunnath. upabhokthaakkalude vangalum vilppana perumaattatthil choothaattakkaarante choothaattavum choothaattakkaarante huristic cheluthunna swaadheenam parisodhikkaan moonnu sidhaanthangal thayyarakki. varumaanathil positteev, negatteevu pravanathakalulla oharikal nalkia upabhokthaakkalkk aadyam aarambhikkumbol positteev aaya oru stokku vaangaan kooduthal saadhyathayundennum ennaal pravanatha neengunnathinanusarichu angane cheyyaanulla saadhyatha kurayumennum oru sidhaantham prasthaavichu. trendinte dairkhyam thudakkathil vardhichuvenkilum trendinte dairkhyam kooduthal vardhichathode upabhokthakkal negatteevu varumaanamulla oru stokku wilkan kooduthal saadhyathayundennathaayirunnu rund sidhaantham. avasaanamaayi, moonnaamathe sidhaantham, vaangunna avasthayilulla upabhokthakkal nashtappedunna stokkinekkaal vijayikkunna stokkinekkaal kooduthal mungananakal kaanikkunnu ennathaanu. sharashari upabhokthakkal vijayikale vaangukayum nashtakkaare vilkkukayum cheiyunnu ennathaanu moonnaamathe sidhaanthathinte anantharafalam.
pareekshanatthinte phalangal aadya sidhaanthathe pinthunaykkunnillenkum randum moonnum sidhaanthangale pinthunaykkunnu, eee hyooristiksinte upayogam vaangunnathino vilkkunnathino shreniyude dairkhyathinum anusrithamaanennu soochippikkunnu. churukkatthil, hraswavum dairkhyameriyathumaaya trendukal vaangunnavarum hraswa trendukal vilkkunnavarum eee hoott hand faalasiyude swaadheenathil varum. samkhyaaparamaaya vivarangalude dairkhyameriya shreniyil kooduthal swaadheenam cheluthunna choothaattakkaarante thettidhaaranaykku anusrithamaayirikkum nere vipareethamaayath.
choothaattam.
choothaattakkaarante thettum choothaattakkaarante thettum thammilulla vyathyasam parisodhikkaan oru patanam nadatthi. oru phalathe thudarnnu oru thirichuvaravu pratheekshikkunnathaan choothaattakkaarante thettu. oru craps table oru jodi diesukal uruttukayo raulattu wheel karakkukayo polulla oru ivant kramarahithamaanennu aalukalkk thonnunna saahacharyangalilaanu choothaattakkaarante bhrant kooduthalum sambhavikkunnath. oru cheria saambilinte kramarahithamaya samkhyakal valia saambilukalil cheiyunna reethiyil santhulithamaakumenna thettaaya vishwaasamaanu ithinu kaaranam; ithine cheria samkhyakalude huristic niyamam ennu vilikkunnu. ithum choodulla kaii thettum thammilulla vyathyasam choodulla kaii thettum oru vyakthi oru oottam thudarumennu prathekshikkunnu ennathaanu. choodulla kaiyude oru valia vasham vyakthiye aasrayichirikkunnu. ithu kramarahithamaya sambhavangal pravachikkanulla oru vyakthiyude kazhivumayi bandhappettirikkunnu, ithu yadhaartha kramarahithamaya sambhavangalkk saadhyamalla. thangalkk eee kazhivundennu aalukal vishwasikkunnu enna vastutha niyanthranatthinte midhyaadhaaranaykku anusrithamaanu.
eee padanatthil, oru nanayam eriyunnathu kaikaaryam cheyyaan kazhiyumo ennu parisodhikkaanum pankedukkunnayaal nanayam eriyunna vyakthiyil shradha kendreekarikkunnathiloodi choothaattakkaarante thettidhaaranaye prathirodhikkanum gaveshakar aagrahichu. ithinu vipareethamaayi, nanayam eriyunna vyakthiyil shradha kendreekarichukondu thalayudeyo vaalukaludeyo varaykku kaaranamaayi avar choodulla thettaaya reethikk thudakkamidaan shramichu. rund saahacharyangalilum daatta sahaanubhoothiyulla maanthrikathaykk anusrithamaayirikkanam, athuvazhi bhauthikashaasthrathinte niyamangal lamghikkunna vidhathil kramarahithamaya sambhavangalude phalangal niyantrikkaan kazhiyumennu avarkk thonnunnu, udaaharanathinu kramarahithamayi nirnnayicha oru prathyeka phalam eriyunnathil "choodulla" aayirikkuka.
moonnu vyathyastha saahacharyangalil avar eee ashayam pareekshichu. aadyathethu vyakthiyude shradha kendreekarichaayirunnu, avide nanayam erinja vyakthi "aval" dhaaraalam thalayo vaalukalo eriyukayaanennu paraamarshichu. randaamathethu oru nanaya focus aayirunnu, avide nanayam erinja vyakthi "nanayam" dhaaraalam thalakalo vaalukalo upayogichu varunnathayi paraamarshichu. oduvil nanayam eriyunna vyakthi onnum parayaattha oru niyanthrana vyavasthayundaayi. pankedukkunnavare vividha grouppukalilekkum niyogichu, athil onnu nanayam flippucheyyunna vyakthi maari, mattonn aaa vyakthi athe sthaanathu thudarnnu.
choothaattakkaarante thettaaya swabhaavathe choothaattakkaarante choodulla kaii upayogikkunnathiloodeyum sajeevamaayi nanayam thirikkunna vyakthiyodulla aalukalude shradhayiloodeyum prathirodhikkaamenna avarude prarambha sidhaanthavumaayi poruthappedunnathaanu eee padanatthinte falamennu gaveshakar kandethi. naanayathil eriyunna vyakthi athepadi thudarukayaanenkil maathrame choothaattakkaarante viddithathinte eee prathirodham sambhavikkoo ennathu sradhikkendathaanu. aalukal ore sambhavathekkurichu pravachikkaan shramikkumbol choothaattakkaarantethum choodulla kaii thettukalum chilappol aadhipathyathinaayi pooraadunnu enna aashayathilekku eee patanam velicham veeshunnu.

