
maandyam

saambathikashaasthrathil, saambathika pravarthanangalil pothuvaaya idivu undaakumbol sambhavikkunna oru bisinus saikkil sankochamaanu maandyam. chelavukalil vyapakamaaya idivundaakumbozhaanu maandyam saadhaaranayaayi sambhavikkunnath (prathikoola demand shock). saambathika prathisandhi, baahya vyapara aaghaatham, prathikoola vitharana aaghaatham, saambathika kumila pottitherikkal, allengil valia thothilulla naravamshajanyamo prakrithi duranthamo (udha.jii. oru mahamari).
amerikkayil maandyathe nirvachichirikkunnathu "vipaniyiludaneelam vyaapichukidakkunna saambathika pravartthanangalile ganyamaaya idivu, kurachu maasangalil kooduthal neendunilkkukayum yadhaartha jii. dii. pii, yadhaartha varumanam, thozhil, vyaavasaayika uthppaadanam, motha chillara vilppana ennivayil saadhaaranayaayi drishyamaavukayum cheiyunnu."europian union samanamaaya oru nirvachanam sweekarichittundu. yunaittad kingdatthil, maandyathe thudarchayaaya rund paadangalile negatteevu saambathika valarchayayi nirvachikkunnu.
panavitharanam vardhippikkuka, palisha nirakk kuraykkuka, sarkkar chelavu vardhippikkuka, nikuthi kuraykkuka thudangiya vipuleekarana macro economic nayangal sweekarichu sarkkarukal saadhaaranayaayi maandyathodu prathikarikkunnu.
nirvachanangal.
1974ll newyork timesinte oru lekhanathil beuro oof laber statistiks kammeeshanar juuliyas shiskin nirddeshichathu maandyathekkurichulla beuroyude gunaparamaaya nirvachanatthinte oru parukkan vivarthanam eathaandu arcum upayogikkaan kazhiyunna alavu nirvachanamaayi eee reethiyil pravartthikkaam ennaanu
varshangalayi, chila niroopakar thudarchayaaya rund paadangalil yadhaartha gnpyile idivinte lalithamaaya ruul-oof-tamb ennathinulla shiskinte "maandyam-spotting" maanadandangalil bhooribhaagavum upekshichu.
amerikkayil, naashanal beuro oof economic researchinte (enn. bii. aarr) bisinus saikkil dating kammittiye pothuve maandyathe kanakkakkaanulla adhikaaramaayi kaanunnu. oru swakaarya saambathika gaveshana samghadanayaaya enn. bii. aarr. saambathika maandyathe nirvachikkunnath "sambadvyavasthayiludaneelam vyaapichukidakkunna saambathika pravartthanangalile ganyamaaya idivu, kurachu maasangalil kooduthal neendunilkkukayum, yadhaartha jii. dii. pii, yadhaartha varumanam, thozhil, vyaavasaayika uthppaadanam, motha chillara vilppana ennivayil saadhaaranayaayi drishyamaavukayum cheiyunnu" ennaanu. maandyathinte thudakkavum avasana theeyathikalum sambandhicha american aikyanaadukalude audyogika madhyasthanaayi enn. bii. aarr kanakkaakkappedunnu. audyogika macro economic, vyavasaya sthithivivarakkanakkukal nalkunna oru swatantra federal ejansiyaaya beuro oof economic analysis parayunnath, "thudarchayaayi rund paadangalil negatteevu jii. dii. pii valarchayulla maandyathe palappozhum udharicha thirichariyal oru audyogika padaviyalla", pakaram, "maandyathinte padavi deseeya beuro oof economic researchile vidagtharude oru samithiyude pravisyayaanu" ennaanu.
saambathika pravartthanangalile idivu aazhathil vilayiruthunnathin thozhilavasarangal, mattu nadapadikal thudangiya adhika macro economic veriyabilukalkoppam gdp upayogichu europian union enbarinu samanamaaya oru nirvachanam sweekarichu.
yadhaartha gdpyude seasonal krameekaricha paada-prathi-paada kanakkukal alakkunnathupole, yunaittad kingdatthile maandyathe saadhaaranayaayi thudarchayaaya rund paadangalil negatteevu saambathika valarchayayi nirvachikkunnu.
saambathika sahakarana vikasana samghadana (oo. iii. sii. dii) maandyathe nirvachikkunnath kuranjathu rund varshamenkilum ulppaadana vidavu jii. dii. piyude kuranjathu 2 shathamaanathilethukayum kuranjathu oru varshathekku ulppaadana vidavu kuranjathu oru shathamaanamaayirikkukayum cheiyunna kaalayalavaanu.
attributeukal.
maandyathinu oresamayam sambhavikkaavunna niravadhi savisheshathakalundu, koodaathe upabhogam, nikshepam, sarkkar chelavu, motham kayattumathi pravartthanam thudangiya saambathika pravartthanatthinte (jii. dii. pii) ghadaka nadapadikalile idivu ulppedunnu. eee samkshiptha nadapadikal thozhil nilavaravum naipunyavum, gaarhika sambaadya nirakkukal, korpparettu nikshepa theerumaanangal, palisha nirakkukal, janasamkhyaashaasthram, sarkkar nayangal thudangiya adisthaana chaalakashakthikale prathifalippikkunnu.
saambathika shaasthranjanaaya richard sii. anuyojyamaaya saahacharyangalil, oru raajyathinte sambadvyavasthayil gaarhika mekhala nettu sevezhsaayum korpparettu mekhala nettu lovezhsaayum undaayirikkanamennu kuu ezhuthi, sarkkar bajatt eathaandu santhulithavum motham kayattumathi poojyathinadutthum aayirikkanam.
gurutharamaaya (jii. dii. pii 10 sathamaanam kuranju) allengil deerghakaala (moonno naalo varsham) maandyathe saambathika maandyam ennu vilikkunnu, ennirunnaalum avayude kaaranangalum parihaarangalum vyathyasthamaakaamenn chilar vaadikkunnu. anoupachaarikamaaya oru churukkezhuthu enna nilayil, saambathika vidagdhar chilappol vii-aakruthiyilulla, yuu-aakruthiyilulla, ell-aakruthiyilulla, dablyu-aakruthiyilulla maandyangal polulla vyathyastha maandya roopangale paraamarsikkunnu.
maandyathinte tharam allengil roopam.
maandyathinte tharavum roopavum savisheshamaan. amerikkayil, 1954ll vii-aakruthiyilulla allengil hraswavum moorchayullathumaaya sankochangal, thudarnnu vegathilullathum susthiravumaaya veendedukkal, 1990-1991; 1974-1975 ll yuu-aakruthiyilulla (neenda maandyam), 1949ll dablyu-aakruthiyilulla allengil eratta-dip maandyam, 1980-1982 enniva sambhavichu. jappaanile 1993-1994 maandyam yuu-aakruthiyilaayirunnu, koodaathe 1997-1999 ll athinte 8-ll-9 quarter sankochathe ell-aakruthiyil visheshippikkaam. korea, hongong, thekkukizhakkan eshya ennivar 1997-1998 ll yuu-aakruthiyilulla maandyam anubhavichu, ennirunnaalum thaaylandinte thudarchayaaya ettu paadangalile idivu ell-aakruthiyilullathaayi vilikkanam.
manashaasthraparamaaya vashangal.
maandyathinu maanasikavum aathmavishwaasamullathumaaya vashangalund. udaaharanathinu, saambathika pravartthanangal mandagathiyilaakumennu kambanikal pratheekshikkunnuvenkil, avarkk nikshepam nadathunnathinupakaram thozhilavasarangal kuraykkaanum panam labhikkaanum kazhiyum. atharam pratheekshakalkk maandyam konduvarikayo vashalaakkukayo cheiyunna svayam shakthippeduthunna thaazhekkulla chakram srishtikkaan kazhiyum. saambathika vikaaram vilayiruthunnathin upayogikkunna oru alavukolaanu upabhokthru aathmavishwaasam. saambathika pravarthanatthinu adisthaanamaaya maanasika gadakangale vivarikkan mrugaathmaakkal enna padam upayogichittundu. thozhil, palisha, panam ennivayude pothuvaaya sidhaantham" enna thante grandhatthil atharam vaikaarika maanasikaavasthakal sambadvyavasthaye ganyamaayi baadhikkunnuvenn avakaashappedunna aadyathe saambathika shaasthranjanaanu cains. saambathika shaasthranjanaaya roobert jeey. parasparam ulla vishwaasabodham, saambathika edapaadukalile nammude neethibodham, azhimathiyudeyum durvishwaasathinteyum vyaapthiyekkurichulla nammude bodham ennivayeyum" eee padam soochippikkunnuvennu shiller ezhuthi. mrugangalude aathmaav kurayumbol, upabhokthakkal chelavazhikkaan agrahikkunnilla, koodaathe bisinasukal mooladhana chelavukal nadathaano aalukale niyamikkano agrahikkunnilla."
labhyatha, hyuristik, pana midhyaadhaarana, saadhaarana pakshapaatham ennivayulppede maandyathinu kaaranamakunna niravadhi manashaasthraparamaaya pakshapaathangalum perumatta saambathikashaasthram vishadeekarichittundu.
balance sheett maandyam.
amithamaya kadabaadhyathayo riyal estettu allengil saambathika aasthi vila kumilakal pottitherikkukayo cheiyunnathu "balance sheett maandyam" ennu vilikkappedunnathinu kaaranamakum. dhaaraalam upabhokthaakkalum korppareshanukalum kadam adaykkumbozhaanu ithu sambhavikkunnath (athaayath.iii., labhikkuka) chelavazhikkunnathino nikshepikkunnathino pakaram, ithu sambadvyavasthaye mandagathiyilaakkunnu. asthikal ellaayppozhum baadhyathakaludeyum ekvittiyudeyum thukaykku thulyamayirikkanam ennu karuthunna oru accounting identityil ninnaan balance sheett enna padam uruthirinjathu. aasthi vila avaa vaangunnathin chelavazhicha kadathinte moolyathil ninnu thaazheyaanenkil, ohari negatteevu aayirikkanam, athaayath upabhokthaavo corporationo paapparaayirikkanam. saambathika shaasthranjanaaya pooll krugman 2014-ll ezhuthi, "saambathika prathisandhi amithamaya kadathinte vishalamaaya prashnatthinte oru prakadanamaayirunnu-athu" balance sheett maandyam "ennu vilikkappedunna oru prakadanamaayirunnu ennathaanu ettavum mikacha pravartthana sidhaantham. kroogmaante kazhchappadil, atharam prathisandhikalkk kadam kuraykkunnathinaayi svakaaryamekhalayil ninnulla idivu nikathaan uyarnna sarkkar chelavukalumaayi kadam kuraykkal thanthrangal aavasyamaanu.
udaaharanathinu, saambathika shaasthranjanaaya richard kuu 1990ll aarambhicha jappaanile "valia maandyam" oru "balance sheett maandyam" aanennu ezhuthi. bhoomiyudeyum stokkinteyum vilayilundaaya idivaanu ithinu kaaranamaayath, ithu japanese sthaapanangalkku negatteevu ikvitti undaayitheernnu, athaayath avarude aasthikalkk avarude baadhyathakalekkaal vila kuravaayirunnu. palisha nirakkukal poojyavum vaaypayedukkaan prolsaahippikkunnathi panavitharanatthinte vipuleekaranavum undaayirunnittum, japanese korppareshanukal saadhaaranayaayi cheiyunnathupole nikshepathinaayi kadam vaangunnathinupakaram avarude swantham bisinesses varumaanathil ninnu kadangal adaykkaan theerumaanichu. gdpyude pradhana demand gadakamaaya korpparettu nikshepam 1990num 2003lum idayil (gdpyude 22 sathamaanam) valareyadhikam idinju. vaaypayedukkunnavare apekshichu 1998nuu sesham japanese sthaapanangal mothatthil attavarumanam nedi. eee idivu nikathunnathum jappane athinte gdpyude nilavaaram nilanirthaan praapthamaakkunnathum vann saambathika uthejanamaanennu (sarkkar kadamedukkunnathum chelavazhikkunnathum) kuu vaadikkunnu. addehathinte kazhchappadil, ithu oru yuu ozhivaakki.ezz. grettu depression ennu type cheyyuka, athil yuu.ezz. gdpyil 46 sathamaanam idivundaayi. sthaapanangal avarude baadyathakal adaykkumbol fandukalude aavasyam parimithamayathinaal dananayam phalapradamallennu addeham vaadichu. balance sheett maandyathil, jii. dii. pii. kadam thirichadavu, kadam vaangaatha vyakthigatha sambaadyam ennivayude alavu kuraykkunnu, ithu sarkkar uttejaka chelavu praadhamika parihaaramaayi avasheshikkunnu.
kooyude saahacharya vilayiruthalinodu yojikkukayum balance sheett maandyathe abhimukeekarikkumbol susthira kammi chelavu uchithamaakumenna kazhchappaadumaayi kroogman 2010 ll balance sheett maandyam enna ashayam charcha cheythu. ennirunnaalum, panapperuppamo bhaaviyile panapperuppathekkurichu vishwasaneeyamaaya vaagdaanangalo (negatteevu yadhaartha palisanirakkukal srishtikkunnathu) kuranja sambaadyathe prolsaahippikkumennathil dananayavum sambaadya swabhaavathe baadhikkumenn krugman vaadichu. mattoru vidhathil paranjaal, panapperuppam chakravaalatthilaanennu aalukal vishwasikkunnuvenkil, laabhikkunnathinupakaram kooduthal chelavazhikkaan aalukal pravanatha kanikkum. kooduthal saankethikamaayi paranjaal, balance sheett maandyakaalathu polum svakaaryamekhalayile savings karvu ilaastik aanennu krugman vaadikkunnu (yadhaartha palisha nirakkukalile maattangalodu prathikarikkunnu), ithu ilaastik allenna kooyude kazhchappadinodu viyojikkunnu (yadhaartha palisha nirakkukalile maattangalodu prathikarikkunnilla).
2012 joolaiyil balance sheett maandya gaveshanathinte oru sarveyil upabhokthru aavasyatheyum thozhilineyum gaarhika liverage nilavaaram baadhikkunnuvenn report cheythu. subprime mortgage prathisandhiyude samayat swath moolyangalil undaaya idivu moolam kudumbangal thaazhnna liverageil ninnu uyarnna liverageilekku mariyathinaal modiyullathum nilanilkkaathathumaaya charakkukalude upabhogam kuranju. koodaathe, uyarnna gaarhika upabhogam kaaranam upabhogam kurayunnathu thozhil nilavaaratthil ganyamaaya idivinu kaaranamakum. athinaal panayam vaykkunnathinulla kadamo gaarhika laabhamo kuraykkaan sahayikkunna nayangal uttejaka phalangal undaakkum.
panalabyatha kenii.
palisanirakku poojyathinaduthekku (poojya palisha nirakk nayam) athukayum ennaal sambadvyavasthaye phalapradamaayi uthejippikkaathirikkum cheiyunna oru sahacharyam vikasippikkaan kazhiyumenna oru keeneeshyan sidhaanthamaanu liqvidity trap. sidhaanthathil, poojyathinaduthulla palisanirakkukal sthaapanangaleyum upabhokthaakkaleyum vaaypayedukkaanum chelavazhikkanum prolsaahippikkanam. ennirunnaalum, valareyadhikam vyakthikaloo korppareshanukalo chelavukalekkaal kadam laabhikkunnathilo adaykkunnathilo shradha kendreekarikkukayaanenkil, kuranja palisanirakku nikshepatheyum upabhoga swabhaavatheyum baadikkilla; pana vitharanam vardhippikkunnathu "oru charadilekku thallunnathin" thulyamaanu. saambathika shaasthranjanaaya pooll krugman yuu. yeei vivarichu.ezz. 2009 leeii maandyavum jappaante nashtappetta dashakavum panalabhyathayude kenikalaayi. panalabyatha kenikalilekkulla oru prathividhi, asthikal vaangunnathinaayi panam phalapradamaayi achadikkunna alavukolukaliloodeyo mattu saankethikavidyakaliloodeyo panavitharanam vipuleekarikkuka ennathaanu, athuvazhi panapperuppa prathekshakal srishtikkukayum athu labhikkaan veendum chelavazhikkaan thudangukayum cheiyunnu. sarkkar uttejaka chelavukalum kayattumathi uthejippikkunnathinum irakkumathi kuraykkunnathinumulla vaanijya nayangalum demand uthejippikkunnathinu mattu saankethikavidyakalaanu. 2010 maarchil addeham kanakkakkiya prakaram loka gdpyude 70 sathamaanavum prathinidheekarikkunna vikasita rajyangal panalabhyathayude keniyil kudungi.
mithavyayathinteyum illaathaakkalinteyum vairudhyangal.
oru vyakthikk anuyojyamaaya perumaattam (udha.jii.prathikoola saambathika saahacharyangalil kooduthal panam laabhikkunnath) valareyadhikam vyakthikal ore perumaattam pinthudarukayaanenkil athu doshakaramaanu, kaaranam aathyanthikamayi, oru vyakthiyude upabhogam mattoru vyakthiyude varumaanamaan. oresamayam labhikkaan (allengil kadam adaykkaan) sramikkunna niravadhi upabhokthaakkale mithavyayathinte vairudhyam ennu vilikkunnu, ithu maandyathinu kaaranamaakukayo aazhathilaakkukayo cheyyum. saambathika shaasthranjanaaya haiman minsky "deliveraginginte vairudhyam" ennu visheshippichu, kaaranam valareyadhikam liverage (ekvittiyumaayi bandhapetta kadam) ulla dhanakaarya sthaapanangalkku avarude aasthikalude moolyathil kaaryamaaya idivundaakaathe oresamayam ellah dii-liverukalum cheyyaan kazhiyilla.
2009 eprilil yuu.ezz. federal reserve vais chairman jaanett yellen eee vairudhyangal charcha cheythu "eee valia vaipa prathisandhi orikkal baadichaal, nammal maandyathilekku kadakkaan adhikam samayameduthilla. maandyam, aavasyavum thozhilum kurayukayum dhanakaarya sthaapanangalude vaipa nashtam vardhikkukayum cheythathode vaipa prathisandhi kooduthal vashalakki. theerchayaayum, oru varshathilereyaayi njangal krithyamaayi eee prathikoola feedback looppinte pidiyilaanu. balance sheett illaathaakkunna prakriya sambadvyavasthayude mikkavarum ellah konukalilum vyaapichittund. upabhokthakkal avarude sambaadyam vardhippikkunnathinaayi vaangalukalil, prathyekichu modiyulla vasthukkalil ninnu pinmaarukayaan. panam sookshikkunnathinaayi bisinasukal aasootritha nikshepangal raddaakkukayum thozhilaallikale pirichuvidukayum cheiyunnu. mooladhanathe shakthippeduthunnathinum nilavile kodunkaattine neridaanulla saadhyatha mechappeduthunnathinuma dhanakaarya sthaapanangal asthikal churukkukayaanu. orikkalkkoodi minskick eee chalanathmakatha manassilayi. vyakthikalum sthaapanangalum budhiparavum sambadvyavasthaye saadhaarana nilayilekku thirike konduvarunnathinu theerchayaayum anivaryavumaaya munkaruthalukal mothatthil sambadvyavasthayude durithathe vardhippikkunna deliveraginginte vairudhyathekkurichu addeham samsaarichu."
pravachanangal.
maandyathinte saadhyatha pothuve pravachikkaan chila nadapadikal nilavilunda
melpparanjava ozhike, poornnamaayum vishwasaneeyamaaya pravachanagalonnum ariyappedunnilla. anthaaraashtra naanayanidhiyude prakash laungaaniyude vishakalanathil 1990kalil lokamembaadumulla arupath maandyangalil randennam maathrame oru varsham munbu saambathika vidagtharude samavayam pravachichirunnulloovennum 2009leeii 49 maandyangalekkurichu oru varsham munbu abhipraaya samanvaya pravachanangal illaayirunnuvennum kandethi.
ennirunnaalum, inipparayunnava saadhyamaaya pravachanangalayi kanakkaakkappedunnu
sarkkar prathikaranangal.
motham aavasyam vardhippikkunnathinu maandyakaalathu vipuleekarana macro economic nayam upayogikkunnathine keyneeshyan saambathika vidagdhar anukoolikkunnu. saambathika maandyathil ninnu oru sambadvyavasthaye mattunnathinulla anukoolamaaya thanthrangal nayanirmmathaakkal pinthudarunna saambathika sanbradaayathe aashrayich vyathyaasappedunnu. saambathika shaasthranjanaaya milttan friedman udaaharanamaayi parayunna dhanakaaryavaadikal parimithamaaya vipuleekarana dhananayathinte upayogathe anukoolikkum, athesamayam keyneeshyan saambathika vidagdhar saambathika valarchaykku aakkam koottunnathinaayi sarkkar chelavu vardhippikkunnathine anukoolichekkaam. vitharana-vasha saambathika vidagdhar bisinus mooladhana nikshepam uthejippikkunnathinaayi nikuthi vettikkuravukal prothsaahippikkunnu. udaaharanathinu, 2017leeii nikuthi vettikkuravukalum thozhil niyamavum chumathiya puthiya nikshepathinu kuranja phalapradamaaya nikuthi nirakkukal nikshepam vardhippikkumennum athuvazhi thozhilaallikale kooduthal uthppaadanakshamaraakkumennume uthppaadanavum vethanavum vardhippikkumennum trump bharanakoodam avakashappettu. ennirunnaalum, 2019 vareyulla yunaittad stetsile nikshepa reethikal soochippikkunnathu tii. sii. jeey. eyude vitharana-side prothsaahanangal nikshepa valarchaye kaaryamaayi baadhichilla ennaanu. 2017nuu sesham nikshepangal vardhichuvenkilum, vardhanavinte bhooribhaagavum ennavilayodulla prathikaranamaayirunnu, mattu mekhalakalile nikshepathinu valare kuranja valarchayaan undaayirunnathu.
dhananayathinte lakshyangal, athaayath.iii.palisha nirakkukale swaadheenikkunnathinaayi panavitharanam niyanthrikkunnath, panavitharanatthinte valarchaa nirakk lakshyamidunnathiloodeyaanu ettavum mikachathu. panam hraswakaala ulppaadanathe baadhichekkaamenkilum deerghakaalaadisthaanathil vipuleekarana dananayam panapperuppathilekku maathrame nayikkukayulloovennu avar abhipraayappedunnu. hraswakaala, deerghakaala pravanathakalude mikacha samyojanavum panavitharanatthile maattam "sambadvyavasthayile naamamaathramaaya veriyabilukalaaya vilakalum vethanavum maathram badhikkunnu, koodaathe thozhilavasarangalum ulppaadanavum polulla yadhaartha variabilukale baadikkunnilla" enna dharana upayogichu sidhaantham parishkkarichukondu keyneeshyan saambathika vidagdhar eee vishakalanam kooduthalum sweekarichu. sambadvyavasthayile pettennulla vitharana-vasha mattangal ulkkollunnathinayi federal reserve parambaraagathamaayi athinte pradhana maanadanda palisha nirakk kuraykkunnathinulla oru naya upakaranamaya moonittari ecommodation upayogikkunnu. federal fund nirakk 0 sathamaanam palisha nirakkinte athirthiyil athumbol, athine seero lover boundu ennu vilikkunnu, veendedukkal uthejippikkunnathinu sarkkar paarambaryethara dananayam avalambikkunnu.
gautti bii. federal reserve baank oof newyorkkinte egertson, naya vishakalanathinayi oru puthiya keyneeshyan macro economic model upayogichu ezhuthunnu, 2008 leeii saambathika prathisandhiyethudarnnu nilaninnirunnathupollu chila saahacharyangalil thozhilaallikaludeyo mooladhanathinteyo nikuthi vettikkuraykkunnath sankochakaramaanennum atharam samayangalil thaalkkaalikamaayi vardhikkunna sarkkar chelavu saadhaarana saahacharyangale apekshichu valare valia phalangal undaakkunnuvennum ezhuthunnu. vilppana nikuthiyile kuravum nikshepa nikuthi creditukalum polulla mattu tharatthilulla nikuthi vettikkuravukal addeham parayunnu.jii.jappaanile "mahaa maandya" thinte pashchaathalatthil avaa valare falapradamaanu. thozhil, mooladhana nikuthi vettikkuravukalude sangocha phalangalum sarkkar chelavinte sakthamaaya vipuleekarana phalavum poojya palisha nirakkukal srishticha asaadhaarana anthareekshathinu savisheshamaanennu thante vishakalanathil ninnu egertson anumaanikkunnu. sthireekarikkappetta saahityamanusarichu, positteev palisha nirakkukal ullappol thozhil nikuthi vettikkurav vipuleekaranaparamaanennum ennaal poojya palisha nirakkukalil athu vipareethamaakumennum nikuthi vettikkuravukal sankochakaramaakumennum addeham vaadikkunnu. koodaathe, mooladhana nikuthi vettikkuravukal positteev palisha nirakkulla addehathinte maathrkayil aprasakthamaanengilum, avaa poojyathil shakthamayi negatteevu aakunnu, sarkkar chelavinte gunakam ekadesham anjirattiyaanu.
kadabadhyathayulla kudumbangal kadangal thirichadaykkunnunde yuu. ezz. dollar vahikkaan kazhiyaathathinal ganyamaaya, susthiramaaya sarkkar chelavu aavasyamaanennum 2010 desemberil pooll krugman ezhuthi.ezz. avarkk munbundaayirunnathupo sambadvyavastha "nammude nilavile prashnangalude moolakaaranam bush-yugathile bhawana kumilayil american kudumbangal uyarnnuvanna kadamaanu...valare kadappetta amerikkakkaarkk avar upayogichathupole chelavazhikkaan kazhiyillennu mathramalla, bubble varshangalil avarkk undaaya kadangal thirichadaykkendivariyum cheiyunnu. mattaarengilum eee mandatha ettedukkukayaanenkil ithu nannayirikkum. ennaal yadhaarthathil sambhavikkunnath chila aalukal valare kurachu chelavazhikkumbol aarum kooduthal chelavazhikkunnilla ennathaanu-ithu oru maandyamulla sambadvyavasthayilekkum uyarnna thozhilillaaymayilekkum vivarthanam cheiyunnu. eee saahacharyathil sarkkar cheyyendathu svakaaryamekhala kuranja chelavil kooduthal chelavazhikkukayum aaa kadangal thirichadaykkumbol thozhilavasarangalkk pinthuna nalkukayum cheyyuka ennathaanu. eee sarkkar chelavu nilanirthendathundu..."
oru prathisandhiyil sarkkar sthaapanangalkku mothatthilulla aavasyam uthejippikkaan kazhiyumennu joonn mainard cains vishwasichu
ohari vipani.
ohari vipaniyile idivu chila maandyangal pratheekshichirunnu. 1948 muthal, 10 maandyangalkku munbu ohari vipani 0 muthal 13 maasam vare (sharashari 5.7 maasam) edinjappol dau johns vyavasaya sharaashariyile 10 sathamaanathiladhikam idinja patthu ohari vipani maandyathe pinthudarnnillennu seagal paraamarsikkunnu.
riyal estettu vipaniyum maandyathinu munbu durbalamaakum. ennirunnaalum, riyal estettu idivu maandyathekkaal valarekkalam neendunilkkum.
bisinesses chakram pravachikkaan valare budhimuttullathinaal, samayanikshepathinaayi saambathika chakrangal prayojanappedutthaan kazhiyillennu seagal vaadikkunnu. naashanal beuro oof economic research (enn. bii. aarr) polum amerikkayil oru kodumnirayo thaazhnna pradeshamo undaayittundo ennu nirnnayikkaan kurachu maasangal edukkum.
yuu.ezz. raashtreeyam.
oru bharanakoodam adhikaarathilirunna samayat sambadvyavasthayude avasthaykku saadhaaranayaayi credito kuttabodhamo labhikkunnu; eee avastha yadhaarthathil engane prathyeka maandyam aarambhichu ennathinekkurichu abhipraayavyathyaasangalkka kaaranamaayi.
udaaharanathinu, ronald reegan adhikaaramelkkunnathinu munbu federal reserve board chairman pooll wolker sweekaricha kadutha pananayamaan 1981leeii maandyathinu kaaranamenn karuthappedunnu. reegan aaa nayathe pinthunachu. 1960kalile saambathika upadeshtaakkalude kaunsil chairmaanaayirunna saambathika shaasthranjan walter heller paranju, "njaan ithine reegan-wolker-carter maandyam ennu vilikkunnu."
anantharafalangal.
thozhilillaayma.
saambathika maandyakaalathu thozhilillaayma prathyekichum uyarnnathaan. thozhilillaaymayude swaabhaavika nirakk undennu neoclassical maathrkayil pravartthikkunna pala saambathika vidagtharum vaadikkunnu, ithu thozhilillaaymayude yadhaartha nirakkil ninnu kuraykkumbol, maandyasamayathu jii. dii. pii vidavu kanakkakkaan upayogikkaam. mattoru vidhathil paranjaal, thozhilillaayma orikkalum 0 sathamaanathilethilla, athinaal ithu oru sambadvyavasthayude aarogyathinte negatteevu soochakamalla, athu "swaabhaavika nirakk" kaviyunnillengil, adhika thuka gdpyile nashtavumaayi nerittu yojikkunnu.
thozhilile maandyathinte poornnamaaya swaadheenam pala paadangalilum anubhavappedanamennilla. 1980kalilum 1990kalilum brittanile maandyathinu sesham thozhilillaayma athinte yadhaartha nilavaaratthilekku madangaan anchu varshameduthu. maandyakaalathu thozhil vivechana avakaashavaadangal vardhikkunnu.
bisinus.
maandyathinte praarambhaghattangalil uthppaadanakshamatha kurayukayum durbalamaaya sthaapanangal adayumbol veendum uyarukayum cheiyunnu. sthaapanangal thammilulla laabhakshamathayile vyathyasam kuthane vardhikkunnu. uthppaadanakshamathayile idivu niravadhi macro-saambathika gadakangalkku kaaranamakaam, udaaharanathinu breksitt kaaranam yukeyiludaneelam kaanapedunna uthppaadanakshamathayile nashtam, ithu eee mekhalayil oru cheria maandyam srishtichekkaam. covid-19 polulla aagola pakarchavyaadhikal mattoru udaaharanamaakaam, kaaranam avaa aagola vitharana shringalaye thadassappeduthukayo charakkukaludeyum sevanangaludeyum aalukaludeyum sanjaaram thadayukayo cheiyunnu.
saambathika maandyam malsara virudha layanathinulla avasarangalum nalkiyittundu, ithu vishalamaaya sambadvyavasthaye prathikoolamaayi baadhichu; 1930-kalil yunaittad stetsile malsara nayam thaalkkaalikamaayi nirtthivachathu mahaamaandyathe vardhippichirikkaam.
saamoohika prathyaaghaathangal.
nischitha varumaanatheyo kshema aanukoolyangaleyo aashrayikkunnavare apekshichu vethanatheyum shambalatheyum aasrayikkunna aalukalude jeevita nilavaaratthe maandyam baadhikkunnath kuravaanu. oru jolie nashtappedunnathu kudumbangalude sthirathayeyum vyakthikalude aarogyatheyum shematheyum prathikoolamaayi baadhikkumenn ariyappedunnu. sthira varumaana aanukoolyangalkku cheria vettikkuravukal labhikkunnu, ithu athijeevikkaan budhimuttaakkunnu.
charithram.
aagolathalathil.
anthaaraashtra dhananidhiyude (aii. emm. eph) abhipraayathil, "ettu muthal 10 varsham vare neendunilkkunna oru chakrathilaanu aagola maandyam sambhavikkunnath."aagola maandyathe nirvachikkumbol aii. emm. eph niravadhi gadakangal kanakkiledukkunnu. 2009 epril vare, aii. emm. eph. niravadhi thavana maadyamangalodu, avarude kazhchappadil aagola vaarshika yadhaartha jii. dii. pii valarcha 3 shathamaanamo athil kuravo ennathu "aagola maandyathinu thulyamaanu" ennu ariyichu.
eee nadapadiyiloode, 1970 muthalulla aarr kaalaghattangal yogyatha nedunnu 1974-1975,1980-1983,1990-1993,1998,2001-2002,2008-2009. kazhinja moonnu pathittaandukalile kazhinja moonnu aagola maandyangale 2002 eprilil aii. emm. eph visheshippicha samayat, aagola prathiseersha ulppaadana valarcha poojyamo negatteevu aayirunnu, 2001 ll ithinu vipareethamaayi kandethiyathinal, eee varshathe saambathika sthithi thanne "aagola maandyam" aayi yogyatha nediyillennu aii. emm. eph vaadichu.
2009 eprilil, aii. emm. eph avarude aagola maandya nirvachanam "vaarshika prathiseersha yadhaartha loka jii. dii. pii (vaangal shakti thulyatha waited) yill idivu, mattu ezhu aagola macro economic soochakangalil onno athiladhikamo kurayukayo vashalaakukayo cheythathinte pinthunayode vyaavasaayika uthppaadanam, vyapaaram, mooladhana ozhukk, enna upabhogam, thozhilillaayma nirakk, prathiseersha nikshepam, prathiseersha upabhogam."eee puthiya nirvachanamanusarichu, randaam lokamahaayudhathinushesham motham naalu aagola maandyangal sambhavichu 1975,1982,1991,2009 ennivayellaam oru varsham maathrame neenduninnulloo, ennirunnaalum moonnaamathethu moonnu varsham (1991-1993) neendunilkkumaayirunnu, maanadandamaayi IMF vaangal shakti thulyatha prathiseersha yadhaartha loka gdpyekkaal prathiseersha yadhaartha loka gdp saadhaarana vinimaya nirakk upayogichirunnenkil.
austreliya.
1920kalude avasaanathil kaarshika mekhalayile laabhaprashnangaludeyum vettikkuravukaludeyum falamaayi, oostreliyayude charithratthile ettavum valia maandyam kandu. maandyathinu vidheyamaaya mattu raajyangale apekshichu ithu mikacha prakadanam kaazhchavechuvenkilum avarude mosham saambathika samsthaanangal oostreliyaye swaadheenichu, athu kayattumathikkum videsha nikshepathinum avare aashrayichu. vyapara samrakshanam sugamamakkiya uthppaadanathile kooduthal uthppaadanakshamathayil ninnu raajyathin prayojanam labhichu, ithu phalangal kuraykkunnathinum sahayichu.
1961ll vaaypayude kuravu moolam sambadvyavastha hrasvamaaya maandyathilekku neengiyirunnu. 1973ll austreliya panapperuppatthinte uyarnna thoth abhimukeekarikkukayaayirunnu, athe varsham thanne undaaya enna prathisandhi kaaranam panapperuppam 13 sathamaanam vardhichu. 1974-nte madhyathode saambathika maandyam pottipurappettu, raajyathinte saambathika sthithiye prathirodhikkunathinulla nadapadiyaayi sarkkar nadappaakkiya nayathil mattamonnum undaayilla. thathfalamaayi, thozhilillaayma nilavaaram uyarukayum vyapara kammi ganyamaayi vardhikkukayum cheythu.
mattoru maandyam-innuvareyulla ettavum puthiyath-1990 kalude thudakkathil 1987 oktobarile oru valia stokku thakarchayude falamaayi vannu, ippol black thinkalaazhcha ennu vilikkunnu. 1929leeii thakarchayekkaal valuthaayirunnuvenkilum aagola sambadvyavastha athivegam veendeduthuvenkilum vadakke america ippozhum maramvettal sambaadyathilum vaaypakalilum idivu anubhavichu, ithu prathisandhiyilekku nayichu. maandyam amerikkayil maathram othungaathe austreliya polulla pankaalittha rajyangaleyum baadhichu. thozhilillaaymayude thoth aii. dii. 1 aayi uyarnnu, thozhil 3.4 sathamaanam kuranju, jii. dii. pii 1.7 sathamaanam vare kuranju. ennaal panapperuppam vijayakaramaayi kuranju.
valia kaattutheeyude swaadheenavum vinodasanchaarathilum sambadvyavasthayude mattu pradhana vashangalilum covid-19 mahamariyude swaadheenavum kaaranam 2020 ll austreliya maandyam nerittu.
europian union.
2012ll euroson maandyam anubhavichu 2012 kalandar varshathinte oru paadatthilum 17 raajyangalude sambadvyavastha valarcha kaivarikkaan kazhinjilla. varshathinte avasana paadatthil maandyam aazhathilayi, franch, jarmman, itaaliyan sambadvyavasthakale ellaam baadhichu.
yunaittad kingdom.
yunaittad kingdatthe baadhicha ettavum puthiya maandyam 2020 leeii maandyamaayirunnu, covid-19 aagola mahamari moolamundaaya maandyamaayirunnu, ithu mahaamaandyathinu sheshamulla aadyathe maandyamaanu.
america.
saambathika vidagtharude abhipraayathil, 1854 muthal yuu.ezz. sharashari 17 maasathe sankochavum 38 maasathe vipuleekaranavum ulppede 32 vipuleekaranangalum sankochangalum nerittu. 1980 muthal 2018 vareyulla kaalayalavil oru saambathika paadatthilo athil kooduthalo ettu negatteevu saambathika valarchaa kaalaghattangal maathrame undaayirunnulloo, naalu kaalaghattangal maandyamaayi kanakkaakkappedunnu
eee maandyangalil avasana moonnu varshangalil, thudarchayaaya rund paadangalile idivu ulppedunna nirvachanavumaayi ekadesham poruthappedunnathaanu enn. bii. aarr theerumaanam. 2001leeii maandyathil thudarchayaayi rund paadangalil idivu undaayillengilum athinu munbu rund paadangalil marimari idivu, durbalamaaya valarcha enniva undaayi.
athinusesham, 2020 februvari muthal 2020 epril vareyulla rund maasathe covid-19 maandyavum enn. bii. aarr prakhyaapichittundu.
2022 joolaiyil, gdpyude thudarchayaaya randaam paadathetthudarnnu maandyam prakhyaapikkunnathinekku enber oru prasthavana puratthirakki, "eathu nadapadikalaanu prakriyaykku vivarangal nalkunnathu allengil njangalude theerumaanangalil avaa engane bhaarappeduthunnu ennathinekkurichu oru nischitha niyamamilla".
randaam paada jii. dii. pii. churukkam report cheyyappedunnathinu munbu enn. bii. aarr chilappol maandyam prakhyaapichittundel thudakkavum avasaanavum avaa sambhavichathayi kanakkakkappetta oru varshathinu sesham prakhyapikkaanum kazhiyum. 1947ll, thozhil, vyaavasaayika uthppaadanam, upabhokthru chelavu ennivaykkaayi report cheyyappetta sakthamaaya saambathika pravartthanangal kaaranam naalil rund bhaagavum gdp kuranjittum enber maandyam prakhyaapichirunnilla.
2000kalude avasaanathil.
2009-nte thudakkathil ganyamaaya ennam rajyangal maandyathilaayirunnavennu audyogika saambathika kanakkukal kaanikkunnu. 2007-nte avasaanathil america maandyathilekku praveshichu, 2008-ll mattu pala raajyangalum ithu pinthudarnnu. 2007leeii yuu. ezz maandyam 2009 juunil raajyam nilavile saambathika veendedukkalilekku praveshichathode avasaanichu. mahaamaandyathinte kaalakramam eee kaalaghattatthile niravadhi gadakangalekkurichu vishadeekarikkunnu.
america.
yunaittad stetts housing maarkkat thiruthalum (yunaittad stetts housing babilinte anantharafalamaayi) subprime mortgage prathisandhiyum maandyathinu ganyamaaya sambhavana nalki.
ekadesham 20 varshathinide aadyamaayi swakaarya upabhogam idinjathaayi aii. dii. 1 maandyam kandu. ithu maandyathinte aazhavum kaadinyavum soochippikkunnu. upabhokthru aathmavishwaasam valare kuravaayathinaal saambathika veendedukkalinu valareyadhikam samayameduthu. yuu. esile upabhokthakkal.ezz. avarude veedukalude moolyam kurayukayum ohari vipaniyil avarude pension sambaadyam kurayukayum cheythathode valia maandyam avare saaramaayi baadhichu.
yuu.ezz. 2008 februvariyil thozhiludamakal 63,000 thozhilavasarangal upekshichu, ithu anchu varshathinidayile ettavum uyarnna nirakkaanu. muun federal reserve chairman alaan greenspan 2008 epril 6 nuu paranju, "america maandyathilekku kadakkaan 50 sathamaanathiladhikam saadhyathayund."septambaril 156,000 adhika thozhilavasarangal nashtappettathayi october 1 nuu beuro oof economic analysis report cheythu. 2008 epril 29nuu moody onpathu yuu. ezz samsthaanangal maandyathilaanennu prakhyaapichu. 2008 novemberil thozhiludamakal 533,000 jolikal illaathaakki, ithu 34 varshathinidayile ettavum valia ottamaasa nashtamaanu. 2008ll 26 laksham yuu.ezz. jolikal illaathaayi.
yuu. esile thozhilillaayma nirakk.ezz. 2009 maarchil ithu 8.8 shathamaanamaayi uyarnnu, 2007 desemberil maandyam aarambhichathinusesham 2009 maarchode 5.1 dasalaksham thozhilillaaymayundaayi. athaayath oru varsham munbullathinekkaal ekadesham anchu dasalaksham aalukalkk thozhilillaaymayundaayi, ithu 1940kalkk sheshamulla thozhilillaathavarude ennathile ettavum valia vaarshika kuthichuchaattamaayirunnu.
aadya paadatthil american sambadvyavastha oru sathamaanam valarcha kaivarichenkilum, 2008 joonode chila vishakalana vidagdhar parayunnath deerghakaala vaipa prathisandhiyum "enna, bhakshanam, urukk thudangiya charakkukalude vanthothilulla panapperuppavum" kaaranam raajyam maandyathilaayirunnu ennaanu. 2008-nte moonnaam paadatthil jii. dii. pii pinvalikkal 0.5 shathamaanamaayi kuranju, ithu 2001-nuu sheshamulla ettavum valia idivaanu. vasthrangal, bhakshanam thudangiya nilanilkkaatha charakkukalkkayulla chelavile kyu 3 kaalayalavile 6.4 sathamaanam idivu 1950-nuu sheshamulla ettavum valia idivaanu.
51 pravachanakkaarude survey adisthaanamaakki federal reserve baank oof philadelphia 2008 novemberil nalkia reportil 2008 eprilil aarambhicha maandyam 14 maasam neendunilkkumennu soochippichu. naalam paadatthil 2.9 sathamaanavum 2009-nte aadya paadatthil 1.1 sathamaanavum vaarshika nirakkil yadhaartha jii. dii. pii kurayumennu avar pravachichu. eee pravachanangal moonnu maasathinu munbulla pravachanagalil ninnu ganyamaaya thaazhottulla parishkaarangale prathinidheekarikkunnu.
naashanal beuro oof economic researchil ninnulla 2008 desemberile oru reportil yuu.ezz. thozhil nashtam, vyakthigatha varumaanathile idivu, yadhaartha gdpyile idivu ennivayulppede niravadhi nadapadikalude adisthaanathil saambathika pravartthanangal ettavum uyarnnappol 2007 desember muthal maandyathilaayirunnu. 2009 joolaiyode saambathika maandyam avasaanichirikkaamennu vardhichuvarunna saambathika vidagdhar vishwasichu. 2009 juunil avasaanicha saambathika maandyam randaam lokamahaayudhathinusheshamal ettavum valia maandyamaayi mariyathaayi 2010 septambar 20 nuu naashanal beuro oof economic research prakhyaapichu. maandyam aarambhikkunnathin munbu, pravachanam cheyyappetta saadhyathakalude pettennulla vardhanavil cheria soochanakal ozhike, ariyappedunna aupachaarika saidhaanthikamo anubhavaparamo aaya oru maathrkaykkum eee maandyathinte munnettam krithyamaayi pravachikkaan kazhinjillennu thonnunnu, athu appozhum 50 sathamaanathil thaazheyaayirunnu.