
jokhim anupaat

uttarjeevita vishleshan mein, jokhim anupaat (aich. aar.) byaaj key upchaar charr key dou alag-alag staron dwara visheshta vaali sthitiyon key anuroop jokhim daron kaa anupaat haye. udaaharan key liye, ack dawa key naidaanik adhyayan mein, upchaarit aabaadi niyantrit aabaadi key prati ikai samay kii darr seey doguni darr seey marr sakati haye. jokhim anupaat 2 hoga, joe upchaar seey mrityu key uchch khatare kaa sanket detaa haye.
ack vaigyaanik lekh nimnanusar kuchh bataane key liye ack jokhim anupaat (aich. aar.) kaa upayog curr sakata haye. "paryaapt covid-19 teekaakaran kii sthiti gambhir covid-19 key samagr jokhim yaa 0.20 (95 pratishat see. aaee., 0.17-0.22) key saath mrityu darr key liye kaafee cumm jokhim seey judee thee."aam aadami kii angreji mein, iska matlab haih adhyayan mein jinn logon koo teeka lagaaya gayaa thaa, una logon kii tulanaa mein gambhir covid-19 honey yaa marane kii sambhavana 80 pratishat cumm thee, jinhen usee adhyayan mein teeka naheen lagaaya gayaa thaa. tou, ack khatarnak parinam key liye (ee.jee. mrityu), 1 seey cumm jokhim anupaat ingit kartaa haye kii upchaar (ee.jee. teekaakaran) anukool (cumm khatarnak) hoe sakata haye, aur yeh jitna cumm hoga, utanaa hii behtar hoga. koshthak bhaag ack seema anuman haye jiska nirmaan samay key 95 pratishat vaastavik jokhim anupaat koo shamil karane key liye kiya gayaa haye.ee. humm ummeed karenge kii pratyek 100 aise seema anumaanon (pratibhagiyon key vibhinn seton seey ganana kii gaee) mein seey 95 mein vaastavik jokhim anupaat hoga. haalaanki, saamaanyikrit mamalon mein, parinam jaruri naheen kii khatarnak hoe. yadi parinam vaastav mein saumya haye (ee.jee. berojgari key daur koo samaapt karane key liye naukari kii peshkash sweekaar karna), phir 1 seey adhik jokhim anupaat naukari kii talash key prayason key upchaar key liye anukool haye.
jokhim anupaat saapeksh jokhimon (aar. aar. aiss.) seey bhinn hotey hain aur usa aar. aar. aiss. aur oh. aar. aiss. mein baadha anupaat (oh. aar. aiss.) ack paribhaashit antim bindu kaa upayog karate hue ack poore adhyayan mein sanchayi hotey hain, jabaki ghante adhyayan avadhi yaa usake kuchh upasamuchchay mein tatkaal jokhim kaa pratinidhitva karate hain. jokhim anupaat chune gaye antim binduon key sambandh mein chayan purvagrah seey kuchh cumm peedit hotey hain aur antim bindu seey pahale honey vaale jokhimon koo ingit curr sakate hain.
paribhasha aur vyutpatti.
pratigaman model kaa upayog khatare key anupaat aur unake aatmavishvaas antaral praapt karane key liye kiya jaataa haye.
tatkaal khatare kii darr prati ikai samay ghatnaaon kii sankhya kii seema haye jise jokhim mein sankhya seey vibhajit kiya jaataa haye, kyonki samay antaral 0 key karib aataa haye.
jahan "n" ("t") ack antaral kii shuruat mein jokhim vaali sankhya haye. ack khatra yeh sambhavana haye kii ack rogi sootra _ 2 aur sootra _ 3 key beach whiffle hoe jaataa haye, yeh dekhate hue kii way samay sootra _ 2 taka jeevit rahey hain, sootra _ 5 seey vibhajit, kyonki sootra _ 5 shoonya key karib pahunchata haye.
jokhim anupaat ack antar kii iss khatare kii darr parr prabhaav haye, jaise kii samooh kii sadasyata (udaaharan key liye, upchaar yaa niyantran, purush yaa mahila), jaisa kii pratigaman model dwara anuman lagaaya gayaa haye joe hr key logg koo ack aadhar rekha khatare key sootra _ 7 key kaary key roop mein maanate hain aur vyakhyatmak charr kaa ack raikhik sanyojanah
aise model aam taur parr aanupaatik khatron key pratigaman model hain; sabse achchha gyaat cox aanupaatik khatron key model, aur ghaatiya, gompertz aur vibul parametric model hain.
dou samoohon key liye joe kewal upchaar kii sthiti mein bhinn hotey hain, khatare key karyon kaa anupaat sootra _ 9 dwara diyaa jaataa haye, jahaan sootra _ 10 pratigaman model seey praapt upchaar prabhaav kaa anuman haye. yeh jokhim anupaat, yaani, ack samooh key sadasya key liye anumaanit khatare aur dusare samooh key sadasya key liye anumaanit khatare key beach kaa anupaat, baaki sub kuchh sthir rakhate hue diyaa jaataa haye, i.ee. khatare key karyon kii aanupaatikta maan lena.
ack nirantar vyakhyatmak charr key liye, vahee vyakhya ack ikai antar parr lagu hoti haye. anya aich. aar. models mein alag-alag formulation hotey hain aur parameter anumaanon kii vyakhya tadnusar alag hoti haye.
vyakhya.
apane sabse saral roop mein, khatare key anupaat koo upchaar bhuja mein honey vaali ghatana kii sambhavana key roop mein vyakhya kii jaa sakati haye, jise niyantran bhuja mein honey vaali ghatana kii sambhavana seey vibhajit kiya jaa sakata haye, yaa isake vipareet, ack adhyayan. inn antim binduon key sankalp koo aamtaur parr kaplan-mear uttarjeevita vakron kaa upayog karke darshaaya jaataa haye. yeye vakr pratyek samooh key anupaat seey sambandhit hain jahan antim bindu taka naheen pahuncha gayaa haye. antim bindu covariot (swatantra charr) seey judaa koee bhee aashrit charr hoe sakata haye, ee.jee. mrityu, roga kii chhoot yaa roga kaa sankuchan. vakr samay mein pratyek bindu (khatare) parr ack antim bindu kii baadhaon kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye. jokhim anupaat kewal dou samoohon mein tatkalik khatron key beach kaa sambandh haye aur ack hii sankhya mein, kaplan-mear bhukhandon key beach kii doori key parimaan kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye.
jokhim anupaat adhyayan kii samay ikai koo pratibimbit naheen karate hain. jokhim-adharit aur samay-adharit upaayon key beach kaa antar ack daud jeetane kii sambhaavanaon aur jeet key antar key beach key antar key samaan haye. jaba ack adhyayan prati samay avadhi mein ack jokhim anupaat kii report kartaa haye, tou yeh maanaa jaataa haye kii samoohon key beach antar aanupaatik thaa. jaba aanupaatikta kii yeh dhaarana poori naheen hoti haye tou khatare kaa anupaat arthaheen hoe jaataa haye.
yadi aanupaatik khatare kii dhaarana haye, tou ack key khatare key anupaat kaa arth haye dou samoohon kii khatare kii darr mein samaantaa, jabaki ack seey anya khatare kaa anupaat samoohon key beach khatare kii darr mein antar koo ingit kartaa haye. shodhkarta kuchh pareekshan saankhyiki seey judee sambhavana kii report karke iss namoone key antar kii sambhavana koo ingit kartaa haye. udaaharan key liye, cox-model yaa logg-rank pareekshan seey sootra _ 10 kaa upayog inn uttarjeevita vakron mein dekhe gaye kissy bhee antar key mahatva kaa aaklan karane key liye kiya jaa sakata haye.
paaramparik roop seey, 0.05 seey cumm sambhaavanaon koo mahatvapurna maanaa jaataa haye aur shodhkarta khatare key anupaat key liye 95 pratishat vishvaas antaral pradaan karate hain, jaise.jee. cox-model pratigaman gunank key maanak vichalan seey vyutpann, i.ee. sootra _ 10. saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvapurna khatare key anupaat mein unake aatmavishvaas antaral mein ekataa (ack) shamil naheen hoe sakati haye.
aanupaatik khatare kii dhaarana.
jokhim anupaat anuman key liye aanupaatik khatron kii dhaarana majboot aur aksar anuchit hoti haye. jatilataaen, pratikool prabhaav aur dair seey prabhaav samay key saath khatare kii darr mein parivartan key sabhi sambhaavit kaaran hain. udaaharan key liye, ack shalya chikitsa prakriya mein uchch praarambhik jokhim hoe sakata haye, lekin utkrisht deerghakaalik parinam hoe sakate hain.
yadi samoohon key beach jokhim anupaat sthir rahata haye, tou yeh vyakhya key liye koee samasya naheen haye. haalaanki, jaba samoohon key beach chayan purvagrah maujood hotaa haye tou khatare key anupaat kii vyakhya asambhav hoe jaati haye. udaaharan key liye, ack vishesh roop seey jokhim bharee shalya chikitsa key parinamswarup ack vyavasthit roop seey adhik majboot samooh kaa astitva hoe sakata haye joe kissy bhee pratispardhi upchaar sthitiyon key tahat behtar pradarshan kartaa, jisase aisaa lagata haye kii jokhim bharee prakriya behtar thee. anuvarti samay bhee mahatvapurna haye. behtar upashaman darr seey judaa cancer upchaar uchch punaravritti darr seey judaa hoe sakata haye. kaba aage badhana haye, isake baare mein shodhkartaon kaa nirnay manmana haye aur isase bahut alag report kiye gaye khatare key anupaat hoe sakate hain.
khatare kaa anupaat aur astitva.
jokhim anupaat koo aksar mrityu kii sambhaavanaon key anupaat key roop mein maanaa jaataa haye. udaaharan key liye, 2 key jokhim anupaat kaa matlab yeh maanaa jaataa haye kii ack samooh mein ack tulanaa samooh kii tulanaa mein marane kii doguni sambhavana hoti haye. cox-model mein, ise samooh uttarjeevita karyon key beach nimnalikhit sambandh mein anuvaad karane key liye dikhaaya jaa sakata haih sootra _ 13 (jahaan "aar" khatare kaa anupaat haye). isaliye, 2 key jokhim anupaat key saath, yadi sootra 14 (20 pratishat samay "tii" parr jeevit rhaa), sootra 15 (4 pratishat "tii" parr jeevit rhaa). mrityu kii sambandhit sambhaavanaaen 0.8 aur 0.96 hain. yeh spasht honah chaahiye kii jokhim anupaat prabhaav kaa ack saapeksh maap haye aur hamein poorna jokhim key baare mein kuchh naheen bataata haye.
jabaki khatare key anupaat parikalpana pareekshan key liye anumati dete hain, unhein upchaar prabhaav kii vyakhya key liye anya upaayon key saath-saath maanaa jaanaa chaahiye, ee.jee. madhya samay (madhya anupaat) kaa anupaat jiss parr upchaar aur niyantran samooh key pratibhaagi kuchh antim bindu parr hotey hain. yadi kissy daud kii samaantaa lagu kii jaati haye, tou jokhim anupaat usa baadha key barabar haye kii uchch khatare vaale samooh mein ack vyakti pahale daud key anta taka pahunch jaataa haye. pahale honey kii sambhavana baadhaon seey praapt kii jaa sakati haye, joe pahale naa honey kii sambhavana seey vibhajit honey kii sambhavana haih
pichhale udaaharan mein, 2 kaa jokhim anupaat praarambhik mrityu kii 67 pratishat sambhavana key anuroop haye. khatare kaa anupaat iss baare mein jaankaari naheen detaa haye kii mrityu kitni jaldi hogi.
jokhim anupaat, upchaar prabhaav aur samay-adharit antim bindu.
upchaar kaa prabhaav kewal khatare key anupaat parr naheen, balki jeevit rahane key kaary seey sambandhit antarnihit bimari parr nirbhar kartaa haye. choonki khatare kaa anupaat hamein pratyaksh samay-seey-ghatana kii jaankaari naheen detaa haye, isaliye shodhkartaon koo madhya antim bindu samay kii report karni hoti haye aur niyantran samooh key madhya moolya koo upchaar samooh key madhya moolya seey vibhajit karke madhya antim bindu samay anupaat kii ganana karni hoti haye.
jabaki madhya antim bindu anupaat ack saapeksh gati maap haye, khatare kaa anupaat naheen haye. upchaar prabhaav aur khatare key anupaat key beach sambandh koo sootra _ 9 key roop mein diyaa gayaa haye. ack saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvapurna, lekin vyaavhaarik roop seey mahatvaheen prabhaav ack badey khatare key anupaat kaa utpaadan curr sakata haye, jaise.jee. ack aabaadi mein ack saal key jeevit bache logon kii sankhya koo 10,000 mein seey badhaakar 1,000 mein seey ack karane key liye ack upchaar kaa jokhim anupaat 10 haye. yeh sambhavana naheen haye kii iss tarah key upchaar kaa ausat antim samay anupaat parr bahut adhik prabhaav padaa hoga, joe sambhavatah ekataa key karib hotaa, arthaat.ee. samooh kii sadasyata kii parwah kiye binaa aur chikitsakiya roop seey mahatvaheen mrityu darr kaafee hudd taka samaan thee.
isake vipareet, ack upchaar samooh jisamen 50 pratishat sankraman ack saptah key baad hull hoe jaate hain (niyantran mein 25 pratishat key mukabale) dou kaa jokhim anupaat detaa haye. yadi upchaar samooh mein sabhi mamalon key liye duss saptah lagate hain aur niyantran samooh mein aadhe mamalon koo hull karane mein, tou duss-saptah kaa jokhim anupaat dou parr rahata haye, lekin madhya antim bindu samay anupaat duss haye, joe chikitsakiya roop seey mahatvapurna antar haye.

