
upaj vakr

vitt mein, upaj vakr ack graph haye joe darshaata haye kii rinn sadhanon parr upaj-jaise kii bonned-paripakvata taka shesh varshon key kaary key roop mein kaise bhinn hoti haye. aam taur parr, graph kaa kshaitij yaa aiks-aksh paripakvata key liye shesh maheenon yaa varshon kii ack samay rekha haye, jisamen baain or sabse cumm paripakvata aur daaeen or uttarottar lambi samay avadhi hoti haye. urdhvaadhar yaa y-aksh paripakvata taka vaarshik upaj koo darshaata haye. 
joe rinn aur bonned jaise rinn key roop mein jaari karate hain aur vyaapaar karate hain, way apane moolya koo nirdhaarit karane key liye upaj vakr kaa upayog karate hain. aisaa maanaa jaataa haye kii upaj vakr key aakar aur dhalaan mein badalaav arthavyavastha aur byaaj daron key liye niveshakon kii apekshaon seey sambandhit haye. 
ronald melicher aur merley valtions ney ack thheek seey nirmit upaj vakr kii kaee visheshtaon kii pehchaan kii haye. yeh pratibhootiyon key ack samooh parr adharit honah chaahiye, jinaki paripakvata key liye alag-alag samay kii lambai hoti haye, aur sabhi paidawar kii ganana samay mein ack hii bindu key roop mein kii jaani chaahiye. rinn jokhim key kaaran upaj key antar key prabhaav koo dekhane key liye, upaj vakr mein maapi jaane vaali sabhi pratibhootiyon kii samaan rinn rating honey chaahiye. iss kaaran seey, kaee vyaapaari yuu key liye upaj vakr koo bariki seey dekhate hain.aiss. treasury rinn pratibhootiyaan, jinhen jokhim mukt maanaa jaataa haye. anaupchaarik roop seey "treasury yealed karv" kahaa jaataa haye, ise aamtaur parr ack graph parr plot kiya jaataa haye jaise kii daaeen or. iss sambandh key adhik aupchaarik ganitiya vivaranon koo aksar byaaj daron kii shabd sanrachana kahaa jaataa haye.
dhalaan aur aakar kaa mahatva.
upaj vakr aamtaur parr lakshanheen roop seey oopar kii or dhalaan parr hotey hainh jitani lambi paripakvata hogi, utani hii adhik upaj, ghatati seemant vriddhi key saath (yaani, jaise-jaise koee daaeen or badhata haye, vakr samtal hoe jaataa haye). arthashastri" key anusaar, upaj vakr kii dhalaan koo dou saal aur duss saal key yuu parr upaj key beach key antar, yaa "prasaar" seey maapa jaa sakata haye.aiss. treasury nott. ack vyaapak failaav ack oonchi dhalaan koo ingit kartaa haye. 
oopar kii or dhalaan vaale upaj vakr key liye dou samanya vyaakhyaaen hain. sabse pahale, yeh hoe sakata haye kii bajar jokhim-mukt darr mein vriddhi kaa anuman lagaa rhaa hoe. yadi niveshak abhee nivesh karna bund curr dete hain, tou unhein bhavishya mein behtar darr mill sakati haye. isaliye, madhyasthata moolya nirdhaaran siddhant key tahat, joe niveshak abb apane paise koo bund karane key ichchuk hain, unhein daron mein anumaanit vriddhi key liye kshatipurti kii aavashyakta haye-iss prakaar deerghakaalik nivesh parr uchch byaaj darr. ack anya vyakhya yeh haye kii lambi paripakvataon mein niveshak key liye adhik jokhim hotaa haye (i.ee. rinadaata). bajar koo jokhim premium kii aavashyakta hoti haye, kyonki lambi avadhi mein adhik anishchitata hoti haye aur nivesh koo prabhaavit karane vaali ghatnaaon kii adhik sambhavana hoti haye. yeh vyakhya iss dhaarana parr nirbhar karati haye kii arthavyavastha nikat bhavishya kii tulanaa mein door bhavishya mein adhik anishchitataon kaa saamana curr rahee haye. iss prabhaav koo taralata prasaar key roop mein sandarbhit kiya jaataa haye. yadi bajar bhavishya mein adhik asthirta kii ummeed kartaa haye, bhale hii byaaj daron mein girawat kaa anuman haye, tou jokhim premium mein vriddhi prasaar koo prabhaavit curr sakati haye aur upaj mein vriddhi kaa kaaran bunn sakati haye.
vipareet sthiti bhee hoe sakati haye, jisamen upaj vakr "ulta" hotaa haye, jisamen alpakaalik byaaj darein deerghakaalik seey adhik hoti hain. udaaharan key liye, navambar 2004 mein, yuu. key. sarkari bonned key liye upaj vakr aanshik roop seey ulta thaa. 10-varsheeya bonned key liye upaj 4.68% thee, lekin 30-varsheeya bonned key liye kewal 4.45% thee. byaaj daron mein girawat kii bajar kii pratyasha aisee ghatnaaon kaa kaaran banati haye. yadi deerghakaalik niveshak bajar parr haavi hotey hain tou nakaratmak taralata premium bhee maujood hoe sakate hain, lekin prachalit drishtikon yeh haye kii ack sakaratmak taralata premium haavi haye, isaliye kewal girati byaaj daron kii pratyasha ack ulta upaj vakr kaa kaaran banegi. aitihaasik roop seey aarthik mandee seey pahale prabal roop seey ulta upaj vakr rhaa haye.
upaj vakr kaa aakar aapoorti aur maang seey prabhaavit hotaa haih udaaharan key liye, yadi lambe bonned kii badee maang haye, udaaharan key liye pension fund seey pensionbhogiyon key liye unaki nishchit dendaariyon key anuroop, aur iss maang koo puuraa karane key liye astitva mein paryaapt bonned naheen hain, tou bhavishya kii ghatnaaon key baare mein bajar pratibhagiyon key vichaaron kii parwah kiye binaa, lambe bonned parr paidawar cumm honey kii ummeed kii jaa sakati haye.
anumaanit byaaj darein sthir honey yaa alpakaalik asthirta deerghakaalik asthirta seey adhik honey key kaaran, upaj vakr bhee sapaat yaa koobad key aakar kaa hoe sakata haye.
jaba bhee bajar khule rahate hain, upaj vakr lagaatar badalate rahate hain, joe samacharon key prati bajar kii pratikriya koo darshaata haye. ack aur "shailibaddh tathya" yeh haye kii upaj vakr samanantar roop seey aage badhate hain; i.ee.: byaaj darr key star mein vriddhi aur girawat key roop mein upaj vakr oopar aur neeche kii or badalata haye, jise taba "samanantar badalaav" key roop mein sandarbhit kiya jaataa haye.
upaj vakr key prakaar.
harr kissy key liye dhana kii laagat kaa varnan karane vaalaa koee ekal upaj vakr naheen haye. upaj vakr nirdhaarit karane mein sabse mahatvapurna kaarak vaha mudra haye jisamen pratibhootiyon koo niroopit kiya jaataa haye. pratyek mudra kaa upayog karane vaale deshon aur companiyon kii aarthik sthiti upaj vakr nirdhaarit karane mein ack praathamik kaarak haye. vibhinn sansthaan apani saakh yogyata key aadhar parr alag-alag daron parr dhana udhaar lete hain.
sarkaaron dwara apani mudra mein jaari kiye gaye bonned key anuroop upaj vakr koo sarkari bonned upaj vakr (sarkari vakr) kahaa jaataa haye. uchch credit rating (aa/aa yaa usase adhik) vaale baink ack-dusare seey libber daron parr paise udhaar lete hain. yeye upaj vakr aam taur parr sarkari vakron kii tulanaa mein thode adhik hotey hain. way vittiya baajaron mein sabse mahatvapurna aur vyaapak roop seey upayog kiye jaane vaale hain, aur vibhinn roop seey libber karv yaa swap karv key roop mein jaane jaate hain. vinimay vakr key nirmaan kaa varnan neeche kiya gayaa haye.
sarkari vakr aur libber vakr key alawa, corporate (company) vakr hain. inca nirmaan nigamon dwara jaari baandon kii paidawar seey kiya jaataa haye. choonki nigamon kii rinn yogyata adhikansh sarkaaron aur adhikansh badey bainkon kii tulanaa mein cumm hoti haye, isaliye yeye paidawar aamtaur parr adhik hoti haye. corporate upaj vakron koo aksar praasangik vinimay vakr parr "credit spread" key sandarbh mein uddhrit kiya jaataa haye. udaaharan key liye, vodafone key liye paanch saal key upaj vakr bindu koo libor + 0.25% key roop mein uddhrit kiya jaa sakata haye, jahaan 0.25% (aksar 25 aadhar ankon yaa 25 key roop mein likhaa jaataa haye) credit spread haye.
samanya upaj vakr.
avasaad key baad key yug seey laker vartamaan taka, upaj vakr aamtaur parr "samanya" rhaa haye jiska arth haye kii paripakvata key roop mein upaj mein vriddhi hoti haye (i.ee., upaj vakr kaa dhalaan sakaratmak haye). yeh sakaratmak dhalaan bhavishya mein arthavyavastha key badhane key liye niveshakon kii apekshaon koo darshaata haye aur mahatvapurna roop seey, iss vikas key liye ack adhik ummeed key saath judaa huaa haye kii mudrasfeeti bhavishya mein girawat key bajaay badhegi. uchch mudrasfeeti kii iss ummeed seey yeh ummeed kii jaati haye kii kendriya baink bhavishya mein aarthik vikas koo dheema karane aur mudrasfeeti key dabaav koo cumm karane key liye alpakaalik byaaj daron koo badhaakar maudrik neeti koo kadaa karega. yeh mudrasfeeti kii bhavishya kii darr key baare mein anishchitata aur nakadi pravaah key bhavishya key moolya key liye jokhim key saath judey jokhim premium kii aavashyakta bhee paida kartaa haye. niveshak bhavishya mein paripakvata key liye adhik paidawar kii maang karke inn jokhimon koo upaj vakr mein moolya dete hain. sakaratmak roop seey dhalaan vaali upaj vakr mein, rinadaataon koo samay key saath laabh hotaa haye kyonki baand kii paripakvata key karib aaney parr paidawar cumm hoti haye (jaise-jaise upaj cumm hoti haye, keemat "badhati haye"); ise rolldown key roop mein jaanaa jaataa haye aur yeh nishchit aaya nivesh mein laabh kaa ack mahatvapurna ghatak haye (i.ee.kharidari aur bikri, jaruri naheen kii paripakvata taka pakad mein hoe), vishesh roop seey yadi nivesh kaa laabh uthaaya jaataa haye.
halanki, ack sakaratmak dhalaan vaali upaj vakr hamesha maanak naheen rahee haye. 19veen shatabdi key adhikansh samay aur 20veen shatabdi kii shuruat mein americi arthavyavastha ney nirantar apasfeeti key saath vriddhi kii pravritti kaa anubhav kiya, naa kii mudrasfeeti key saath. iss avadhi key dauran upaj vakr aamtaur parr ulta thaa, joe iss tathya koo darshaata haye kii apasfeeti ney vartamaan nakadi pravaah koo bhavishya key nakadi pravaah kii tulanaa mein cumm moolyavaan banaa diyaa. lagaatar apasfeeti kii iss avadhi key dauran, ack 'samanya' upaj vakr nakaratmak roop seey dhalaa huaa thaa.
teevra upaj vakr.
aitihaasik roop seey, 20-varsheeya treasury bonned kii upaj teen maheene key treasury bilon seey ausatan lagbhag dou pratishat adhik haye. aisee sthitiyon mein jaba yeh antar badhata haye (ee.jee. 20 saal kii rajkoshiya upaj teen maheene key rajkoshiya upaj kii tulanaa mein bahut adhik badhati haye), arthavyavastha mein bhavishya mein teji seey sudhaar honey kii ummeed haye. iss prakaar kii vakrata koo aarthik vistaar kii shuruat mein (yaa mandee key anta key baad) dekhaa jaa sakata haye. yahaan, aarthik thaharaav alpakaalik byaaj daron mein girawat laayega; haalaanki, badhati aarthik gatividhi seey poonji kii maang phir seey sthaapit honey key baad darein badhani shuru hoe jaati hain.
janwari 2010 mein, dou saal key treasury noton aur 10 saal key noton parr paidawar key beach kaa antar badhkar 2.92 pratishat hoe gayaa, joe abb taka kaa sabse adhik haye.
sapaat yaa koobadaar upaj vakr.
ack sapaat upaj vakr taba dekhaa jaataa haye jaba sabhi paripakvataon mein samaan upaj hoti haye, jabaki ack koobad vakr parinam taba hotaa haye jaba alpakaalik aur deerghakaalik paidawar samaan hoti haye aur madhyam avadhi kii paidawar alpakaalik aur deerghakaalik kii tulanaa mein adhik hoti haye. ack sapaat vakr arthavyavastha mein anishchitata key sanket bhejata haye. yeh mishrit sanket ack samanya vakr mein vaapas aaa sakata haye yaa baad mein ack ulte vakr mein parinam hoe sakata haye. ise neeche charcha kiye gaye khandit bajar siddhant dwara samajhaaya naheen jaa sakata haye.
ulta upaj vakr.
asamanya paristhitiyon mein, niveshak cumm jokhim vaale deerghakaalik rinn seey judee cumm paidawar key liye samjhauta karenge yadi unhein lagata haye kii arthavyavastha nikat bhavishya mein mandee mein pravesh karegi. udaaharan key liye, aiss aind pee 500 ney 2007 key madhya mein ack naatakiya girawat kaa anubhav kiya, jisase yeh 2013 kii shuruat taka poori tarah seey uber gayaa. jinn niveshakon ney 2006 mein 10 saal key khajaane khareede they, unhein 2015 taka ack surakshit aur sthir upaj millie hogi, sambhavatah usa asthir avadhi key dauran sheyaron mein nivesh karane vaalon kii tulanaa mein behtar laabh praapt karna.
arthashastri campbelle harvey key 1986 key shodh prabandh seey pataa chalaa kii ack ulta upaj vakr sateek roop seey yuu kaa purvanuman lagaata haye.aiss. mandee. ack ulta vakr 1970 key baad seey bhavishya mein aathh baar bigadati aarthik sthiti kaa sanket detaa haye.
sambhaavit roop seey aarthik girawat kaa sanket dene key alawa, ulta upaj vakr bhee darshaata haye kii bajar kaa maanana haye kii mudrasfeeti cumm rahegi. aisaa isaliye haye kyonki, bhale hii mandee hoe, cumm bonned upaj abhee bhee cumm mudrasfeeti seey offset hogi. haalaanki, takniki kaarak, jaise kii gunavatta yaa vaishvik aarthik yaa mudra sthitiyon key liye udaan, upaj vakr key lambe anta mein bonned kii maang mein vriddhi kaa kaaran bunn sakate hain, jisase deerghakaalik darein gir sakati hain. badhati alpakaalik daron kii upasthiti mein deerghakaalik daron mein girawat koo "greenspan kii samasya" key roop mein jaanaa jaataa haye.
vyaapaar chakr seey sambandh.
upaj vakr kaa dhalaan bhavishya key aarthik vikas, mudrasfeeti aur mandee key sabse shaktishali bhavishyavaktaon mein seey ack haye.
 upaj vakr dhalaan kaa ack maap (i.ee. 10-varsheeya treasury bonned darr aur 3-maheene key treasury bonned darr key beach kaa antar) sent dwara prakaashit vittiya tanaav soochkaank mein shamil haye. lui koo khilaaya gayaa. dhalaan kaa ack alag maap (i.ee. 10-varsheeya treasury bonned daron aur sanghiya nidhi darr key beach kaa antar) sammelan board dwara prakaashit pramukh aarthik sanketkon key soochkaank mein shamil kiya gayaa haye.
ack ulta upaj vakr aksar mandee kaa agradoot hotaa haye. ack sakaratmak dhalaan vaali upaj vakrata aksar mudrasfeeti vriddhi kaa agradoot hoti haye. arturo astrella aur tobias adrian key kaam ney mandee kaa sanket dene key liye ack ulte upaj vakr kii bhavishyasoochak shakti sthaapit kii haye. unake model bataate hain kii jaba sanghiya aarakshit kasane key chakr key anta mein alpakaalik byaaj daron (way 3-maheene key tii-bilon kaa upayog karate hain) aur deerghakaalik byaaj daron (10-varsheeya treasury bonned) key beach kaa antar nakaratmak yaa 93 aadhar ankon seey cumm hotaa haye, tou berojgari mein vriddhi aamtaur parr hoti haye. nyu york feed upaj vakr seey praapt aur astrella key kaam key aadhar parr ack masik mandee kii sambhavana bhavishyavani prakaashit kartaa haye.
1970 key baad seey america mein sabhi mandee ack ulte upaj vakr (10-varsh banaam 3-maheene) seey pahale hui haye. usee samay seema mein, ack ulte upaj vakr kii harr ghatana key baad mandee aaee haye jaisa kii nbr vyaapaar chakr detting samiti dwara ghoshit kiya gayaa haye. 2007 key baad pahali baar 2019 kii pahali chhamaahi mein upaj vakr ulta hoe gayaa.
astrella aur anya logon ney yeh maanaa haye kii upaj vakr bainkon (yaa baink jaise vittiya sansthanon) kii balance sheet key madhyam seey vyaapaar chakr koo prabhaavit kartaa haye. jaba upaj vakr ulta hotaa haye, tou baink aksar nae deerghakaalik rinon parr bhugtan karane kii tulanaa mein alpakaalik jamaa (yaa alpakaalik thoke vittaposhan key anya roopon) parr adhik bhugtan karate hue pakade jaate hain, jisase laabhpradata kaa nuksan hotaa haye aur rinn dene mein anichha hoti haye jisake parinamswarup rinn sankat paida hotaa haye. jaba upaj kii vakrata oopar kii or hoti haye, tou baink laabhprad roop seey alpakaalik jamaa leey sakate hain aur nae deerghakaalik rinn leey sakate hain taaki way udharkartaon koo rinn kii aapoorti karane key liye utsuk houn. yeh antatah ack credit bubble kii or leey jaataa haye.
siddhant.
teen mukhya aarthik siddhant hain joe yeh samajhaane kaa prayaas karate hain kii paripakvata key saath upaj kaise bhinn hoti haye. dou siddhant charam sthiti hain, jabaki teesara poorv donon key beach ack madhya aadhar khojane kaa prayaas haye. 
bajar kii apekshaaen (shuddh apekshaaen) parikalpana.
yeh parikalpana maanati haye kii vibhinn paripakvataaen sahee vikalp hain aur sujhaav detee haye kii upaj vakr kaa aakar bajar pratibhagiyon kii bhavishya kii byaaj daron kii apekshaon parr nirbhar kartaa haye. yeh maanata haye kii bajar kii taakaten bonned kii vibhinn sharton parr byaaj daron koo aisaa banaa dengi kii alpakaalik nivesh key ack anukram kaa apekshit antim moolya ekal deerghakaalik nivesh key gyaat antim moolya key barabar hoga. yadi yeh naheen hotaa haye, tou siddhant yeh maanata haye kii niveshak jaldi seey vartamaan alpakaalik yaa deerghakaalik baandon kii adhik maang karenge (joe bhee adhik apekshit deerghakaalik upaj detaa haye), aur yeh usa avadhi key vartamaan bondon parr return koo cumm karega aur doosari avadhi key vartamaan bondon parr yealed koo badhaayega, taaki donon nivesh drishtikonon key apekshit return kii anumaanit samaantaa koo jaldi seey banaae rakhaa jaa sakey.
iska upayog karate hue, bhavishya kii darein, iss dhaarana key saath kii bhavishya key baajaron mein madhyasthata key avsar nyuntam honge, aur yeh kii bhavishya kii darein agami hajir daron key nishpaksh anuman hain, ack poorna apekshit upaj vakr kaa nirmaan karane key liye paryaapt jaankaari pradaan karati hain. udaaharan key liye, yadi niveshakon koo ummeed haye kii agale varsh 1-varsh kii byaaj darein kyaa hongi, tou vartamaan 2-varsh kii byaaj darr kii ganana agale varsh kii apekshit 1-varsh kii byaaj darr dwara iss varsh kii 1-varsh kii byaaj darr key chakravriddhi key roop mein kii jaa sakati haye. aam taur parr, ack deerghakaalik upkaran parr pratiphal (1 + upaj) koo alpakaalik upkaranon kii ack shrinkhala parr apekshit laabh key jyaamitiya maadhya key barabar maanaa jaataa haih
jahan "i" "st" aur "i" "lt" apekshit alpakaalik aur vaastavik deerghakaalik byaaj darein hain (lekin sootra _ 2 pahale varsh key liye vaastavik dekhi gaee alpakaalik darr haye).
yeh siddhant usa avalokan key anuroop haye joe aamtaur parr ack saath aage badhata haye. haalaanki, yeh upaj vakr key aakar mein dridhata kii vyakhya karane mein whiffle rahata haye.
apekshaon key siddhant kii kamiyon mein yeh shamil haye kii yeh bonned mein nivesh karane mein nihit byaaj darr jokhim kii upeksha kartaa haye.
taralata premium siddhant.
taralata premium siddhant shuddh apeksha siddhant kii ack shakha haye. taralata premium siddhant kaa kahana haye kii deerghakaalik byaaj darein naa kewal bhavishya kii byaaj daron key baare mein niveshakon kii dhaaranaon koo darshaati hain, balki isamen deerghakaalik bonned rakhane key liye ack premium bhee shamil haye (niveshak deerghakaalik bonned kii tulanaa mein alpakaalik bonned pasand karate hain), jise avadhi premium yaa taralata premium kahaa jaataa haye. yeh premium niveshakon koo adhik moolya anishchitata sahit lambe samay taka unake paise koo baandhane key atirikt jokhim kii bharpai kartaa haye. avadhi key premium key kaaran, deerghakaalik bonned kii paidawar alpakaalik paidawar seey adhik hoti haye aur upaj vakr oopar kii or dhalaan kartaa haye. deerghakaalik paidawar bhee naa kewal taralata premium key kaaran adhik hoti haye, balki deerghakaalik pratibhooti rakhane seey chook key jokhim dwara jode gaye jokhim premium key kaaran bhee adhik hoti haye. bajar kii apekshaon kii parikalpana koo taralata premium siddhant key saath jodaa gayaa haih
jahan sootra 4 ack sootra 5 varsh key baand seey judaa jokhim premium haye.
pasandida awas siddhant.
pasandida awas siddhant taralata premium siddhant kaa ack prakaar haye, aur kahata haye kii byaaj darr kii apekshaon key alawa, niveshakon key paas alag nivesh kshitij hain aur unhein apani "pasandida" paripakvata, yaa awas key baahar paripakvata vaale bonned khareedane key liye ack saarthak premium kii aavashyakta hoti haye. iss siddhant key samarthakon kaa maanana haye kii nishchit aaya bajar mein alpakaalik niveshak adhik prachalit hain, aur isaliye deerghakaalik darein adhikansh bhaag key liye alpakaalik daron seey adhik hoti hain, lekin alpakaalik darein kabhi-kabhi deerghakaalik daron seey adhik hoe sakati hain. yeh siddhant samanya upaj vakr aakar kii dridhata aur upaj vakr kii apane aakar koo banaae rakhate hue oopar aur neeche kii pravritti donon key saath susangat haye.
bajar vibhajan siddhant.
iss siddhant koo khandit bajar parikalpana bhee kahaa jaataa haye. iss siddhant mein, vibhinn shabdon key vittiya saadhan pratisthaapan yogya naheen hain. parinamswarup, alpakaalik aur deerghakaalik upkaranon key liye baajaron mein aapoorti aur maang kaafee hudd taka swatantra roop seey nirdhaarit kii jaati haye. sambhaavit niveshak pahale seey hii taya curr lete hain kii unhein alpakaalik yaa deerghakaalik upkaranon kii aavashyakta haye yaa naheen. yadi niveshak apane portfolio koo taral rakhna pasand karate hain, tou way deerghakaalik upkaranon kii tulanaa mein alpakaalik upkaranon koo pasand karenge. isaliye, alpakaalik upkaranon key liye bajar mein adhik maang praapt hogi. upkaran kii adhik maang kaa arth haye adhik keematen aur cumm upaj. yeh shailibaddh tathya koo samajhaata haye kii alpakaalik paidawar aamtaur parr deerghakaalik paidawar seey cumm hoti haye. yeh siddhant samanya upaj vakr aakar kii pradhaantaa kii vyakhya kartaa haye. haalaanki, kyonki donon baajaron kii aapoorti aur maang swatantra hain, yeh siddhant iss dekhe gaye tathya koo samajhaane mein whiffle rahata haye kii paidawar ack saath chalati haye (i.ee., vakr mein oopar aur neeche kii or shift).
upaj vakr siddhant kaa aitihaasik vikas.
15 agast, 1971 koo yuu.aiss. rashtrapati richard nixon ney ghoshana kii kii yuu.aiss. dollar abb swarn maanak parr adharit naheen hoga, jisase brayton vann pranali samaapt hoe jaayegi aur tairati vinimay daron kaa yug shuru hoe jaayega.
tairati vinimay daron ney bonned vyapariyon key liye jeevan koo aur adhik jatil banaa diyaa, jisamen newyork shahar mein salomon brothers bhee shamil they. 1970 key dashak key madhya taka, salomon mein bonned shodh key pramukh, shaheed libovitz dwara protsaahit, vyapariyon ney nae tarikon seey bonned kii paidawar key baare mein sochana shuru curr diyaa. pratyek paripakvata (duss saal kaa bandhan, paanch saal kaa bandhan, aadi) key baare mein sochane key bajaay.) ack alag bazar key roop mein, unhone apani sabhi paidawar key madhyam seey ack vakr aakarshit karna shuru curr diyaa. vartamaan samay key sabse karib honey parr "alp anta" key roop mein jaanaa jaane lagaa-aage bonned kii paidawar swabhavik roop seey "deergh anta" bunn gaee.
shikshaavidon koo iss mamle mein chikitsakon key saath khelna padaa. ack mahatvapurna saiddhaantik vikas ack check ganitshastri, oldrich vasisek seey aaya, jinhone 1977 key ack pepper mein tark diyaa kii sabhi vakr key saath bonned kii keematen alpaavadhi (jokhim-tatasth samkaksh martingle upaay key tahat) aur tadnusar alpakaalik byaaj daron dwara sanchaalit hoti hain. vasisec key kaam key liye ganitiya model koo ack ornstein-uhlenbeck prakriya dwara diyaa gayaa thaa, lekin taba seey ise badnam kiya gayaa haye kyonki model ack sakaratmak sambhavana kii bhavishyavani kartaa haye kii cumm darr nakaratmak hoe jaati haye aur vibhinn aakaron key upaj vakr banaane mein lachili hoti haye. vasisec key model koo kaee alag-alag models dwara pratisthaapit kiya gayaa haye, jisamen patwar-safed model (joe ornstein-uhlenbeck prakriya mein samay key vibhinn maapdandon kii anumati detaa haye), cox-singers-soul-cross model, joe ack sanshodhit besal prakriya haye, aur heath-jairo-morton framework shamil hain. inmein seey pratyek model mein kaee sanshodhan bhee hain, lekin laghu-darr model parr lekh dekhein. ack anya aadhunik drishtikon libber bajar model haye, jise 1997 mein brace, gatarek aur museala dwara pesh kiya gayaa thaa aur baad mein anya logon dwara unnat kiya gayaa thaa. 1996 mein, olivier doria (duesh baink mein adla-badali key pramukh) aur michel fesola key netritva mein vyutpann vyapariyon key ack samooh ney sabhi pramukh europeeya mudraon mein adla-badali upaj vakr key vistaar mein yogdan diyaa. taba taka bajar 15 saal kii paripakvata taka keematen dega. team ney europeeya upaj vakr kii paripakvata koo 50 varshon taka badhaa diyaa (leira, french frank, duesh maark, dennish crone aur ee. see. yuu. sahit kaee anya mudraon key liye). yeh navachar lambe samay seey shoonya-koopan baand jaari karane aur lambe samay taka bandhak banaane mein ack pramukh yogdan thaa.
bajar key aankadon seey poorna upaj vakr kaa nirmaan.
upaj vakr kaa samanya pratinidhitva ack falan pee key sandarbh mein hotaa haye, jise bhavishya key sabhi samay "tii" parr paribhaashit kiya jaataa haye, jaise kii pee ("tii") bhavishya mein mudra "tii" varshon kii ack ikai praapt karane key aaj key moolya kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye. yadi pee koo bhavishya key sabhi "tii" key liye paribhaashit kiya gayaa haye tou humm aasaani seey upaj (i.ee. vaarshik byaaj darr) sootra key madhyam seey usa avadhi key liye dhana udhaar lene key liye
isaliye upaj vakr koo paribhaashit karane mein mahatvapurna kathinaaee falan pee ("tii") koo nirdhaarit karna haye. pee koo chhoot kaarak kaary yaa shoonya koopan bonned kahaa jaataa haye.
upaj vakr yaa tou "bonned bajar" yaa "mudra bajar" mein upalabdh kimaton seey banaae jaate hain. jabaki bonned bajar seey nirmit upaj vakr kewal bonned key ack vishisht varg seey kimaton kaa upayog karate hain (udaaharan key liye yuke sarkaar dwara jaari baand) aaj kii libber daron seey "nakad" kii kimaton key upayog seey nirmit upaj vakr, joe vakr key "chhote anta" koo nirdhaarit karate hain.ee. t" ≤ 3m key liye, byaaj darr vayada joe vakr key madhya bhaag (3m ≤ "t" ≤ 15m) koo nirdhaarit karati haye aur byaaj darr adla-badali joe "lambe anta" (1y ≤ "t" ≤ 60y) koo nirdhaarit karati haye.
daaeen or talika mein diye gaye udaaharan koo libber vakr key roop mein jaanaa jaataa haye kyonki iska nirmaan libber daron yaa adla-badali daron kaa upayog karke kiya jaataa haye. ack libber vakr sabse vyaapak roop seey upayog kii jaane vaali byaaj darr vakr haye kyonki yeh lagbhag ack + rating parr niji sansthaon key rinn moolya kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye, joe motey taur parr vaanijyik bainkon key barabar haye. yadi koee sarkari bonned kii paidawar key saath libber aur adla-badali daron koo pratisthaapit kartaa haye, tou koee usa parr pahunchata haye jise sarkari vakr key roop mein jaanaa jaataa haye, jise aamtaur parr antarnihit mudra key liye jokhim mukt byaaj darr vakr maanaa jaataa haye. libber yaa adla-badali darr aur sarkari bonned yealed key beach kaa prasaar, aamtaur parr sakaratmak, jiska arth haye kii niji udhaar sarkari udhaar seey adhik premium parr haye, samaan paripakvata kaa rinadaataon kii jokhim sahishnuta kaa ack upaay haye. yuu key liye. aiss. bajar, iss tarah key prasaar key liye ack samanya mandand tathaakathit taid prasaar dwara diyaa jaataa haye.
donon hii mamalon mein upalabdh bajar detta nakadi pravaah kaa ack matricks "aeye" pradaan kartaa haye, pratyek pankti ack vishesh vittiya saadhan kaa pratinidhitva karati haye aur pratyek collum samay mein ack bindu kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye. matricks kaa ("i", "j")-th tatva usa raashi kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye joe upkaran "i" dinn "j" parr bhugtan karega. maan leejiye kii vector "f" upkaran kii aaj kii kimaton kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye (taaki "i"-th upkaran kaa moolya "f" ("i") hoe), phir hamaare chhoot kaarak falan "p" kii paribhasha key anusaar hamaare paas "f" = "ap" honah chaahiye (yeh ack matricks gunan haye). vaastav mein, vittiya baajaron mein shore kaa matlab haye kii ack "pee" khojana sambhav naheen haye joe iss sameekaran koo thheek seey hull kartaa haye, aur hamara lakshya ack vector "pee" koo dhoondhana bunn jaataa haye joe kii
jahan sootra _ 8 jitna sambhav hoe utanaa chhota vector haye (jahan ack vector key aakar koo usake maanak koo laker maapa jaa sakata haye, udaaharan key liye).
aggar humm iss sameekaran koo hull curr sakate hain, tou bhee humm kewal una "tii" key liye "pee" ("tii") nirdhaarit karenge, jinamen seey ack yaa adhik mool upkaranon seey nakadi pravaah hotaa haye, jinase humm vakr banaa rahey hain. anya "tii" key liye maan aamtaur parr kissy prakaar kii antarveshan yojana kaa upayog karke nirdhaarit kiye jaate hain.
chikitsakon aur shodhkartaon ney a * p = f sameekaran koo hull karane key kaee tarikon kaa sujhaav diyaa haye. yeh darshaata haye kii sabse praakritik vidhi-sootra _ 9 koo cumm seey cumm varg pratigaman dwara cumm karane kii-asantoshjanak parinamon kii or leey jaati haye. matricks "a" mein badee sankhya mein shunyon kaa matlab haye kii kaary "p" "oobad-khabad" hoe jaataa haye.
byaaj darr modeling parr apani vyaapak pustak james aur webber nott mein kahaa gayaa haye kii pee khojane kii samasya koo hull karane key liye nimnalikhit takneekon kaa sujhaav diyaa gayaa haih
mudra bajar mein vyavasaay karane vaale vakr key vibhinn kshetron koo hull karane key liye vibhinn takneekon kaa upayog curr sakate hain. udaaharan key liye, vakr key chhote chhor parr, jahaan kuchh nakadi pravaah hotey hain, pee key pahale kuchh tatva ack seey dusare mein bootstrapping dwara paae jaa sakate hain. lambe anta mein, ack laagat kaary key saath ack pratigaman takneek kaa upayog kiya jaa sakata haye joe chiknai koo mahatva detaa haye.
bonned kii kimaton parr prabhaav.
bonned moolyon key vishleshan key liye ack samay ayam haye. khareed parr 10 saal kaa bonned ack saal baad 9 saal kaa bonned bunn jaataa haye, aur isake baad kaa saal 8 saal kaa bonned bunn jaataa haye, aadi. pratyek varsh bonned paripakvata key karib badhata haye, jisake parinamswarup cumm asthirta aur cumm avadhi hoti haye aur jaba upaj vakr badh rhaa hotaa haye tou cumm byaaj darr kii maang hoti haye. choonki girati darein badhati kimaton kaa kaaran banati hain, isaliye baand kaa moolya shuru mein badhega kyonki cumm paripakvata kii cumm darein isaki naee bajar darr bunn jaati hain. kyonki ack bonned hamesha apani antim paripakvata seey lunger daaltaa haye, kissy bindu parr keemat koo disha badalani chaahiye aur mochan parr samaan moolya parr girna chaahiye.
kissy bonned key jeevan mein alag-alag samay parr usake bajar moolya kii ganana kii jaa sakati haye. jaba upaj vakr teevra hotaa haye, tou baand key baad mein keemat mein girane seey pahale pahale varshon mein ack badaa poonji laabh honey kaa anuman lagaaya jaataa haye. jaba upaj vakr sapaat hotaa haye, tou poonji laabh bahut cumm honey kaa anuman lagaaya jaataa haye, aur samay key saath baand key kull laabh mein bahut cumm parivartansheelta hoti haye.
jaise-jaise byaaj kii bajar darein badhati hain yaa cumm hoti hain, upaj vakr key saath pratyek bindu parr prabhaav shayed hii kabhi samaan hotaa haye.ee. vakr shayed hii kabhi samanantar roop seey oopar yaa neeche jaataa haye. kyonki deerghakaalik bonned kii avadhi adhik hoti haye, daron mein vriddhi seey unake liye alpakaalik bonned kii tulanaa mein adhik poonji nuksan hoga. lekin lagbhag hamesha, lambi paripakvata kii darr bahut cumm badal jaayegi, jisase upaj vakr sapaat hoe jaayega. cumm samay mein daron mein adhik parivartan cumm samay key baand kii cumm avadhi dwara pradaan kiye gaye laabh kii kuchh hudd taka bharpai karega.
lambi avadhi key bandhanon kaa matlab vaapas lautana hotaa haye, jiska arth haye kii way aasaani seey ack deerghakaalik ausat kii or aakarshit hotey hain. yadi anumaanit mudrasfeeti haye, bhale hii byaaj darein naheen badali houn, tou bhee vakr key beach (5-10 varsh) mein upaj mein sabse adhik pratishat laabh hoga. deergh-anta ausat prativarti gunon key kaaran pratishat-vaar naheen chalata haye.
baand seey vaarshik 'kull pratiphal' aeye) koopan kii upaj kaa yog aur bee) badalate mulyankan seey poonji laabh kyonki yeh upaj vakr koo neeche khisakaata haye aur see) usa bindu parr byaaj daron mein parivartan seey koee bhee poonji laabh yaa nuksan hotaa haye.
notes.
1. newyork sanghiya aarakshit mandee bhavishyavani model avadhi prasaar kii ganana karane key liye maheene kii ausat 10 varsh kii upaj banaam maheene kii ausat 3 maheene key baand samkaksh upaj kaa upayog kartaa haye. isaliye, dinn key bheetar aur dainik vyutkram koo vyutkram key roop mein naheen ginaa jaataa haye jaba taka kii way masik ausat aadhar parr vyutkram kii or naheen leey jaate hain. disambar 2018 mein, 2008-2009 mandee key baad pahali baar upaj vakr key kuchh hisse ulte hue. haalaanki 10-varsh banaam 3-maheene kaa hissa 22 march, 2019 taka ulat naheen huaa aur yeh 1 aprail, 2019 (i.ee. kewal 8 dinn baad). maee 2019 mein 10-varsheeya banaam 3-maheene (bonned samkaksh upaj) key maheene kaa ausat shoonya aadhar ankon taka pahunch gayaa. march aur aprail 2019 donon mein march aur aprail mein dinn key bheetar aur dainik vyutkram key bavjood maheene kaa ausat shoonya aadhar ankon seey adhik fail gayaa thaa. isaliye, talika maee 2019 seey shuru honey vaale 2019 key vyutkram koo darshaati haye. isi tarah, sitambar 1998 mein dainik vyutkram key parinamswarup ack maheene key ausat aadhar parr nakaratmak avadhi naheen faili aur iss prakaar yeh ack galat chetavani naheen haye.
2. mandee kii bhavishyavani model ney nirdhaarit kiya kii mandee farwari 2020 mein shuru hui, isase ack maheene pahale kii vishva swaasthya sangathan ney covid-19 koo mahamari ghoshit kiya.

