
helmate norpoth

helmut norpoth (janm 1943) ack americi raajneetik vaigyaanik aur stoney brook vishvavidyalaya mein rajneeti vigyaan key professor hain. norpoth koo rashtrapati chunaavon kii bhavishyavani karane key liye praathamik model vikasit karane key liye jaanaa jaataa haye.
shiksha aur currier.
norpoth ney 1966 mein germany key berlin vishvavidyalaya seey snaatak kii degree praapt kii. phir unhone mishigan vishvavidyalaya mein bhaag liya, jahan unhone aim.aeye. aur pee. aich.dee. 1967 aur 1974 mein. 1979 mein sahayak professor key roop mein stoney brook vishvavidyalaya mein shamil honey seey pahale, unhone arizona vishvavidyalaya (1978 mein rajneeti vigyaan vibhaag mein visiting lecturer), collon vishvavidyalaya aur texas vishvavidyalaya mein padhaaya. 1980 mein, unhein stoney brook vishvavidyalaya mein associate professor key roop mein padonnat kiya gayaa, aur 1985 mein way vahaan ack poorna professor baney.
shodh.
norpoth kaa shodh rajneeti vigyaan mein kaee vishayon parr kendrit haye, jisamen janmat aur chunavi vyavhaar shamil hain, aur sanyukt raajya america, grate britten aur germany mein chunaavon key parinamon kii bhavishyavani karna shamil haye. norpoth key praathamik model ney 1912 seey 28 americi rashtrapati chunaavon mein seey 25 key parinamon kaa safaltapurvak milan kiya haye, apavaad 1960,2000 aur 2020 mein they.
"yuu key liye "praathamik model".aiss. rashtrapati chunaav.
norpoth ney praathamik model vikasit kiya, joe 1912 key aankadon parr adharit sanyukt raajya america key rashtrapati chunaavon kaa ack saankhyikiya model haye. "praathamik model" dou karakon parr adharit haih kyaa lambe samay seey satta mein rahee party ise khone vaali prateet hoti haye, aur kyaa kissy diye gaye ummidwar ney apane pratidvandi kii tulanaa mein praathamik chunaavon mein behtar pradarshan kiya haye. iss model kaa pahali baar 1996 key chunaav mein upayog kiya gayaa thaa.
haal hii mein chook.
2016.
farwari 2015 mein, norpoth ney anuman lagaaya kii gantantravadiyon key paas agale varsh aam chunaav jeetane kii 65 pratishat sambhavana thee. 2016 mein, iss model ney media kaa dhyaan aakarshit kiya kyonki isane bhavishyavani kii thee kii donald trump aam chunaav jeetenge. alochakon key jawab mein jinhone sarvekshanon kaa hawala diyaa jisamen clinton ney trump koo ack mahatvapurna antar seey netritva kiya, noropoth ney kahaa kii yeye chunaav iss baat koo dhyaan mein naheen rakh rahey they kii vaastav mein navambar mein kaun matdan karega...humm mein seey lagbhag sabhi kahate hain, oh haan, main vote doonga, aur phir kaee loga aage naheen badhenge."
donald trump key 2016 mein jeetane kii bhavishyavani karane key liye dhyaan dene key bavjood, norpoth key model ney kewal itna kahaa kii donald trump 52.5% key saath dou-party lokpriya vote jeetenge. donald trump vaastav mein 2016 mein dou dalon key lokpriya vote 48.9% key saath haar gaye.
2020.
2 march, 2020 koo norpoth ney kahaa kii unake model ney trump koo phir seey chunaav jeetane kaa 91 pratishat mauka diyaa. unake model ney yeh bhee bhavishyavani kii kii trump 362 nirvaachak maton key saath jeetenge. isake liye 2016 seey kaee clinton raajyon koo palatane key liye trump kii aavashyakta hogi.
haalaanki, yeh bhavishyavani galat saabit hui. trump ney 2016 mein kissy bhee raajya koo palat naheen diyaa, aur anta mein 5 raajyon aur nebrasca mein ack chunavi vote khou diyaa, jise unhone 2016 mein jeetaa, antatah joe biden key 306 chunavi voton key mukabale 232 chunavi voton key saath chunaav haar gaye. 
norpoth ney apani bhavishyavani key baad baad kii aashcharyajanak ghatnaaon key ack "sahee toofaan" kaa hawala diyaa, jise dhyaan mein naheen rakhaa gayaa thaa, vishesh roop seey sanyukt raajya america mein covid-19 mahamari, jisake kaaran lockdown huaa, joe unaki bhavishyavani key kuchh hii hafton baad shuru huaa, aur ack aarthik mandee, joe rashtrapati dwara aparyaapt pratikriya key kaaran behtar naheen hui thee. mahamari ney mell-inn aur anupasthit matpatron mein bhee vriddhi kii, joe loktaantrik ummidwar kii or jhukenge. 25 maee, 2020 koo george lloyd kii hatyaa parr nagrik ashanti koo bhee ack kaarak key roop mein uddhrit kiya gayaa thaa.

