
tipping-point sthiti

sanyukt raajya america key rashtrapati chunaavon mein, nirnaayak raajya pahala raajya haye joe jeetane vaale ummidwar koo nirvaachak maton kaa bahumat detaa haye, jisase nirvaachak mandal mein ummidwar kii jeet sunishchit hoti haye, jaba sabhi raajyon koo antim vijeta key liye apane vote margine key ghatate crum mein vyavasthit kiya jaataa haye.
tipping-point raajya koo ack prati-tathya key roop mein vyakhya kii jaa sakati haye, iss dhaarana parr kii vibhinn raajyon mein parinam dridhata seey sahsambaddh hainh yadi rashtravyapi vote margine koo sthanantarit kiya gayaa thaa, lekin vote margine dwara raajyon kaa "crum" aparivartit thaa, tou tipping-point raajya vaha raajya yaa raajya hoga jisamen raajya vijeta mein parivartan key parinamswarup rashtriya vijeta mein parivartan hoga. yeh shabd usa raajya koo bhee sandarbhit curr sakata haye joe dusare sthaan key ummidwar koo chunavi vote kaa bahumat dega jaba sabhi raajyon koo unake vote margine key crum mein vyavasthit kiya jaataa haye; yeh aamtaur parr, lekin hamesha naheen, praathamik paribhasha mein ack hii raajya hotaa haye (apvaadon key liye khand "mool aur paribhasha" dekhein).
1964 key sanyukt raajya america key rashtrapati chunaav seey pahale nirvaachakon kii sankhya 538 nirdhaarit kii gaee thee, isaliye nirvaachak mandal jeetane key liye 270 mutt aavashyak hain. kuchh chunaavon mein, vibhinn ummidvaaron key liye kaee mahatvapurna raajya hoe sakate hain, kyonki yadi koee ummidwar 270 chunavi vote praapt naheen kartaa haye, tou isake bajaay sanyukt raajya america key pratinidhi sabhaa mein ack aakasmik chunaav hotaa haye. udaaharan key liye, 2020 key sanyukt raajya america key rashtrapati chunaav mein, yadi wisconsin, arizona aur georgia donald trump key paas jaate, tou nirvaachak mandal koo ack bolly kii jeet key liye wisconsin koo nirnaayak raajya banaate hue, ack pramukh raajya key roop mein chunaa jaataa, lekin pensylvania, ack agale-nikatatam, ack nirnaayak raajya key roop mein ack pramukh raajya key roop mein ubhara.
utpatti aur paribhasha.
ack tipping-point raajya kii avadharana koo paanch-adtis key nett silver dwara lokpriya banaaya gayaa thaa. paanch-adtis niyamit roop seey bhavishyavani karate hain kii site key "tipping point index" key madhyam seey diye gaye rashtrapati chunaav mein kaun saa raajya tipping-point raajya hoga. tipping-point raajyon kii pichhali bhavishyavaniyon mein 2008 key chunaav mein mishigan yaa ohiyo, 2012 key chunaav mein ohiyo, 2016 key chunaav mein florida aur 2020 key chunaav mein pensylvania shamil hain.
kyonki nirvaachak mandal mein rashtrapati chunaav jeetane key liye nirvaachak mutt kaa bahumat aavashyak haye, pratham sthaan praapt karane vaale aur dwiteeya sthaan praapt karane vaale key liye tipping-point raajya alag hoe sakata haye yadi dou seey adhik ummidvaaron koo nirvaachak mutt praapt hotey hain, yaa yadi raajyon mein ack shift chunavi mutt koo bandha chhod dega. kuchh raajya bhee vishvaasaheen matdaataon key swabhaav key aadhar parr bhinn hoe sakate hain, iss dhaarana parr kii kuchh vishvaasaheen matdaataon ney usa ummidwar koo apana vote dene key liye chunaa hoga jise unhone vote dene kaa vaadaa kiya thaa yadi unake vote seey usa ummidwar koo bahumat mill jaataa. kyonki chunavi vote washington key vijetaon koo diye jaate hain, dee.see. aur kuchh congress key jilon mein, yeh sambhav haye kii ack raajya key alawa kuchh aur hoe.
tipping-point raajya usa kalanukramik crum seey sambandhit naheen haye jisamen raajya-darr-raajya chunaav parinam yaa tou media outlet yaa raajya key adhikaariyon dwara report kiye jaate hain. balki, media sabhi maton kii ginati seey pahale pratyek raajya key spasht vijetaon koo pesh karane key liye nirnay desk kaa upayog kartaa haye, aur ack raajya kii ghoshana karega kii way pariyojana ack ummidwar koo spasht rashtrapati vijeta banane key liye paryaapt chunavi vote degi. pratyek raajya mein sabhi maton kii ginati aur pramanan key baad hii antim bindu raajya kaa nirdhaaran kiya jaa sakata haye, aur iss prakaar sabhi mutt margine sateek hain. udaaharan key liye, 2020 key chunaav mein pensylvania raajya mein jeet hassil karane key liye joe biden key anuman ney unhein chunavi college kaa anumaanit vijeta banaa diyaa, lekin 2020 key chunaav key nirnaayak bindu raajya wisconsin thaa, jise unake liye teen dinn pahale bulaaya gayaa thaa.
udaaharan key liyeh 2012 kaa rashtrapati chunaav.
obama kii jeet kaa nirnaayak bindu raajya.
2012 key rashtrapati chunaav mein, baraak obama ney chunavi vote mein mitt romani koo haraaya, jisamen romani key liye 206 kii tulanaa mein 332 chunavi vote liye gaye. 1964 key chunaav key baad seey sabhi rashtrapati chunaavon key saath, nirvaachak mandal mein bahumat jeetane key liye 270 nirvaachak maton kii aavashyakta thee. obama ney abhee bhee chunavi vote kaa bahumat jeetaa hoga, bhale hii unhone virginia, ohiyo aur florida naheen jeete, teen raajya jinamen unaki jeet kaa sabse cumm antar thaa. haalaanki, aggar obama ney una teen raajyon key saath-saath colorado (jiss raajya mein virginia, ohiyo aur florida koo chhodkar obama kii jeet kaa antar sabse cumm thaa) koo khou diyaa hotaa, tou unhone nirvaachak mandal kaa bahumat naheen jeetaa hotaa. iss prakaar, 2012 mein obama kii jeet key liye colorado nirnaayak raajya thaa.
kaalpanik romani jeet tipping point sthiti.
2012 key ack kaalpanik rashtrapati chunaav mein jisamen pratyek raajya samaan roop seey 5.38 ankon seey romani mein sthanantarit hoe gayaa thaa, romani ney chunavi vote kaa bahumat jeetaa hoga. iss paridrishya mein, romani ney aitihaasik roop seey jeete gaye raajyon mein florida, ohiyo, virginia aur colorado koo jodkar 275 nirvaachak vote jeete honge. isake vipareet, yadi pratyek raajya kewal 5.36 ankon seey samaan roop seey romani mein sthanantarit hoe gayaa hotaa, tou romani ney abhee bhee florida, ohiyo aur virginia jeetaa hotaa, lekin colorado naheen jeetaa hotaa aur chunavi vote kaa bahumat naheen jeetaa hotaa. iss prakaar, 2012 mein romani jeet key liye colorado nirnaayak sthiti thee.
chunaav dwara nirnaayak raajyon kii soochi.
yeh talika 1832 seey pratyek rashtrapati chunaav mein vijeta ummidwar key liye nirnaayak sthiti koo darshaati haye, binaa kissy vishvaasaheen matdaataon key punarnirdharan key.
aavritti dwara tipping-point sthitiyaan.
1832 key chunaav seey shuru honey vaale nimnalikhit raajya vijeta ummidwar key liye (vishvaasaheen matdaataon key swabhaav mein kissy bhee badalaav key liye lekha-jokha kiye binaa) nirnaayak raajya rahey hainh

