bhookamp kii bhavishyavani

bhookamp kii bhavishyavani bhookampiya vigyaan kii ack shakha haye joe bhavishya key bhookampon key samay, sthaan aur parimaan key vinirdesh seey sambandhit haye, aur vishesh roop seey "kissy kshetra mein honey vaale agale" shaktishali bhookamp key liye maapdandon kaa nirdhaaran ". bhookamp kii bhavishyavani koo kabhi-kabhi "bhookamp purvanuman" seey alag kiya jaataa haye, jise "samanya" bhookamp key khatare key sambhaavit mulyankan key roop mein paribhaashit kiya jaa sakata haye, jisamen varshon yaa dashakon mein kissy diye gaye kshetra mein hanikarak bhookampon kii aavritti aur parimaan shamil haye. sabhi vaigyaanik "bhavishyavani" aur "purvanuman" mein antar naheen karate hain, lekin antar upayogi haye.
bhavishyavani koo bhookamp chetavani pranaliyon seey aur alag kiya jaa sakata haye, joe bhookamp kaa pataa chalane parr, prabhaavit hoe sakate padosi kshetron koo sekand kii vaastavik samay chetavani pradaan karate hain.
1970 key dashak mein, vaigyaanik ashawadi they kii bhookampon kii bhavishyavani karane key liye ack vyaavhaarik tarika jald hii mill jaayega, lekin 1990 key dashak taka nirantar viphalata ney kaee logon koo sawal karane key liye prerit kiya kii kyaa yeh sambhav bhee thaa. badey bhookampon kii spasht roop seey safal bhavishyavaniyaan naheen hui hain, aur safalata key kuchh daave vivadaspad hain. udaaharan key liye, ack safal bhavishyavani kaa sabse prasiddh daavaa yeh haye kii isake liye aarop lagaaya gayaa haye. baad key ack adhyayan mein kahaa gayaa kii koee vaidh alpakaalik bhavishyavani naheen thee. vyaapak khojon ney kaee sambhaavit bhookamp poorvavartiyon kii soochana dee haye, lekin, abb taka, aise poorvavartiyon kii pehchaan mahatvapurna sthaanik aur laukik paimaane parr vishvasaniya roop seey naheen kii gaee haye. jabaki vaigyaanik samudaay kaa ack hissa maanata haye kii, gair-bhookampiya poorvavartiyon koo dhyaan mein rakhate hue aur unakaa vyaapak roop seey adhyayan karane key liye paryaapt sansaadhan diye jaane parr, bhavishyavani sambhav hoe sakati haye, adhikansh vaigyaanik nirashawadi hain aur kuchh kaa maanana haye kii bhookamp kii bhavishyavani swabhavik roop seey asambhav haye.
bhookamp kii bhavishyavaniyon kaa mulyankan karna.
bhavishyavaniyon koo mahatvapurna maanaa jaataa haye yadi unhein yaadrichhik avsar seey parey safal dikhaaya jaa sakata haye. isaliye, saankhyikiya parikalpana pareekshan key tarikon kaa upayog iss sambhavana koo nirdhaarit karane key liye kiya jaataa haye kii bhookamp jaisa kii bhavishyavani kii gaee haye, vaise bhee hoga (shoonya parikalpana). bhavishyavaniyon kaa mulyankan taba yeh pareekshan karke kiya jaataa haye kii kyaa way vaastavik bhookampon key saath shoonya parikalpana seey behtar sambandh rakhate hain.
haalaanki, kaee udaharanon mein, bhookamp kii ghatana kii saankhyikiya prakriti kewal sajaatiya naheen haye. clustering sthaan aur samay donon mein hoti haye. dakshini california mein lagbhag 6 pratishat mee. 3 bhookampon key baad 5 dinon aur 10 kimmy key bheetar badee teevrata kaa bhookamp aataa haye."madhya itali mein 9.5% mee. 3 bhookampon key baad 48 ghante aur 30 kimmy key bheetar ack badee ghatana hoti haye. jabaki iss tarah key aankade bhavishyavani key uddeshyon key liye santoshjanak naheen hain (pratyek safal bhavishyavani key liye duss seey bees galat alarm dete hue) way kissy bhee vishleshan key parinamon koo tirchha karenge joe yeh maanata haye kii bhookamp samay parr yaadrichhik roop seey hotey hain, udaaharan key liye, jaisa kii ack poison prakriya seey mahsoos kiya gayaa haye. yeh dikhaaya gayaa haye kii poori tarah seey samooh parr adharit ack "nadan" vidhi lagbhag 5 pratishat bhookampon kii safaltapurvak bhavishyavani curr sakati haye; "" mauka "seey kaheen behtar.
kyonki alpakaalik bhavishyavani kaa uddeshya mrityu aur vinash koo cumm karane key liye aapaatkaaleen upaayon koo saksham karna haye, ack badey bhookamp kii chetavani dene mein viphalata, joe hotaa haye, yaa cumm seey cumm khatare kaa paryaapt mulyankan, kanuni daayitva, yaa yahaan taka kii raajneetik shuddhikaran mein parinam dey sakata haye. udaaharan key liye, yeh bataaya gayaa haye kii cheeni vigyaan akadami key sadasyon koo "1976 kii garmiyon key vinashkari tangshan bhookamp kii vaigyaanik bhavishyavaniyon koo nazarandaj karane" key liye shuddh kiya gayaa thaa. 2009 key ll 'akvila bhookamp key baad, itali mein saat vaigyaanikon aur technicians koo maanav hatyaa kaa doshi thaharaaya gayaa thaa, lekin bhookamp kii "bhavishyavani" karane mein whiffle rahane key liye itna naheen, jahaan lagbhag 300 loga maare gaye they, aur janata koo "anuchit ashvasana dene" key liye-ack peedit ney ise "sangyaaharan" kahaa-kii "gambhir bhookamp naheen hoga, aur isaliye savdhani baratane kii koee aavashyakta naheen haye. lekin bhookamp kii chetavani joe naheen hotaa haye, usaki bhee laagat aatee haih naa kewal aapaatkaaleen upaayon kii laagat, balki nagrik aur aarthik vyavadhaan kii bhee. radd kiye gaye alarm sahit jhoothe alarm bhavishya kii chetavaniyon kii vishvasaniyata aur prabhavsheelta koo bhee kamjor karate hain. 1999 mein yeh bataaya gayaa thaa kii chean badey bhookampon key purvanuman seey utpann shaharon kii dahashat aur badey paimaane parr nikasi koo rokane key liye 'jhoothi' bhookamp chetavaniyon koo samaapt karane key uddeshya seey sakht niyam lagu curr rhaa thaa."yeh 30 seey adhik anaupchaarik bhookamp chetavaniyon seey prerit thaa... pichhale teen varshon mein, jinamen seey koee bhee sateek naheen rhaa haye."chook gaye bhookampon aur galat chetavani key beach sweekarya samjhauta inn parinamon key samajik mulyankan parr nirbhar kartaa haye. kissy bhee bhavishyavani vidhi kaa mulyankan karate samay donon kii ghatana kii darr parr vichaar kiya jaanaa chaahiye.
grees mein bhookamp kii bhavishyavani anusandhaan key laagat-laabh anupaat key 1997 key ack adhyayan mein, stathis steros ney sujhaav diyaa kii ack (kaalpanik) utkrisht bhavishyavani vidhi bhee sandigdh samajik upayogita kii hogi, kyonki "shahari kendron kii sangathit nikasi safaltapurvak poori honey kii sambhavana naheen haye", jabaki "ghabarahat aur anya avaanchhaniya dushprabhavon kaa bhee anuman lagaaya jaa sakata haye."unhone paaya kii bhookampon seey grees mein prati varsh duss seey cumm loga maare jaate hain (ausatan), aur unamen seey adhikansh mautein pehchaan yogya sanrachanaatmak muddon vaali badee imaraton mein huin. isaliye, sirij ney kahaa kii asurakshit imaraton kii pehchaan karane aur unhein unnat karane key prayason parr dhyaan kendrit karna bahut adhik laagat prabhaavi hoga. choonki yunani rajmargon parr marane vaalon kii sankhya ausatan prati varsh 2300 seey adhik haye, unhone tark diyaa kii aggar bhookamp kii bhavishyavani key liye grees key poore bajat kaa upayog sadak aur rajmarg suraksha key liye kiya gayaa hotaa tou aur adhik jeevan bhee bachenge.
bhavishyavani key tareeke.
bhookamp kii bhavishyavani ack aparipakva vigyaan haye-isane abhee taka pahale bhautik siddhanton seey bhookamp kii safal bhavishyavani naheen kii haye. isaliye bhavishyavani key tarikon mein anusandhaan dou samanya drishtikonon key saath anubhavjanya vishleshan parr dhyaan kendrit kartaa haih yaa tou bhookamp key vishisht "poorvavartiyon" kii pehchaan karna, yaa kissy prakaar key bhubhautikiya "pravritti" yaa bhookampiyata key pattern kii pehchaan karna joe ack badey bhookamp seey pahale hoe sakata haye. poorvavarti vidhiyon kaa paalan kaafee hudd taka alpakaalik bhookamp kii bhavishyavani yaa purvanuman key liye unaki sambhaavit upayogita key kaaran kiya jaataa haye, jabaki 'pravritti' vidhiyon koo aam taur parr purvanuman, deerghakaalik bhavishyavani (10 seey 100 varsh kaa samay paimana) yaa madhyavarti avadhi kii bhavishyavani (1 seey 10 varsh kaa samay paimana) key liye upayogi maanaa jaataa haye.
poorvavarti.
bhookamp kaa poorvavarti ack visangat ghatana haye joe aasann bhookamp kii prabhaavi chetavani dey sakati haye. inki report-halanki aam taur parr ghatana key baad hii maanyata praapt haye-hajaaron mein sankhya, kuchh pracheen kaal seey hain. vaigyaanik saahitya mein lagbhag bees vibhinn prakaar key sambhaavit agraduton kii lagbhag 400 reportein millie hain, joe vayu vigyaan seey laker prani vigyaan taka key sargam koo chalaate hain. bhookamp kii bhavishyavani key uddeshyon key liye koee bhee vishvasaniya naheen paaya gayaa haye.
1990 kii shuruat mein, ayaspei ney mahatvapurna poorvavartiyon kii praarambhik soochi key liye namankan kaa anurodh kiya. chaalees namankan kiye gaye, jinamen seey paanch koo sambhaavit mahatvapurna agraduton key roop mein chunaa gayaa, jinamen seey dou ack-ack avalokan key aadhar parr they.
vaigyaanik saahitya kii ack aalochanatmak sameeksha key baad, "nagrik sanrakshan key liye bhookamp purvanuman parr antarrashtriya aayog" (aisf) ney 2011 mein nishkarsh nikala kii "iss prakaar key shodh mein paddhatigat sudhaar key liye kaafee gunjaish thee."vishesh roop seey, report kiye gaye agraduton key kaee mamle virodhabhasi hain, ayam key maap kii kamee haye, yaa aam taur parr ack kathor saankhyikiya mulyankan key liye anupayukt hain. prakaashit parinam sakaratmak parinamon key prati pakshapaati hotey hain, aur isaliye galat nakaratmak (bhookamp lekin koee poorvasoochak sanket naheen) kii darr spasht naheen haye.
pashu vyavhaar.
bhookamp shuru honey key baad, dabaav tarangen (pee-tarangen) adhik hanikarak katarani tarangon (aiss-tarangen) kii tulanaa mein doguni teji seey yatra karati hain. aam taur parr manushyon dwara naheen dekhaa gayaa, kuchh janwar chhote compans koo dekh sakate hain joe mukhya compan seey kuchh seey kuchh darjan sekand pahale pahunchate hain, aur ghabra jaate hain yaa anya asamanya vyavhaar pradarshit karate hain. bhookampamaapak pee tarangon kaa bhee pataa lagaa sakate hain, aur samay key antar kaa upayog electronic bhookamp chetavani pranaliyon dwara kiya jaataa haye taaki manushyon koo surakshit sthaan parr jaane key liye kuchh sekand pradaan kiye jaa sakein.
2018 taka 130 seey adhik prajaatiyon koo shamil karate hue upalabdh vaigyaanik adhyayanon kii sameeksha mein yeh dikhaane key liye aparyaapt saboot mille kii janwar bhookamp key ghanton, dinon yaa hafton pahale hii chetavani dey sakate hain. saankhyikiya sahsambandh bataate hain kii kuchh report kiye gaye asamanya pashu vyavhaar chhote bhookampon (purvabhas) key kaaran hotey hain joe kabhi-kabhi ack badey bhookamp seey pahale hotey hain, joe aggar kaafee chhote hotey hain tou logon dwara kissy kaa dhyaan naheen jaa sakate hain. purvabhas bhujal parivartan kaa kaaran bhee bunn sakate hain yaa gaisen chhod sakate hain jinka jaanvaron dwara pataa lagaaya jaa sakata haye. bhookampamaapak dwara bhee purvanuman kaa pataa lagaaya jaataa haye, aur lambe samay seey sambhaavit bhavishyavaktaon key roop mein adhyayan kiya gayaa haye, lekin safalata key binaa (#seismicity pattern dekhein). bhookampavidon koo madhyam avadhi key bhautik yaa rasayanik parivartanon key pramaan naheen mille hain joe bhookampon kii bhavishyavani karate hain jinhen janwar mahsoos curr rahey honge.
bhookamp seey pahale jaanvaron key ajib vyavhaar kii upakhyanatmak report hajaaron varshon seey darj kii gaee haye. kuchh asamanya pashu vyavhaar koo galati seey nikat bhavishya key bhookamp key liye jimmedaar thaharaaya jaa sakata haye. flashbulb smriti prabhaav bhookamp jaisi bhaavnaatmak roop seey shaktishali ghatana seey judey honey parr ullekhaniya vivaranon koo adhik yadgar aur adhik mahatvapurna banaata haye. yahaan taka kii 2018 kii sameeksha mein adhikansh vaigyaanik reports mein yeh darshaane vaali tippaniyan shamil naheen theen kii jaba bhookamp aaney vaalaa thaa tou jaanvaron ney asamanya roop seey "kaary naheen" kiya, jiska arth haye kii vyavhaar bhavishyasoochak honey key liye sthaapit naheen kiya gayaa thaa.
bhookamp kii pashu bhavishyavani kii jaanch karane vaale adhikansh shodhkarta chean aur japan mein hain. adhikansh vaigyaanik avalokan newzealand mein 2010 key canterbury bhookamp, japan mein 1984 key otaki bhookamp aur itali mein 2009 key ll 'akvila bhookamp seey aae hain.
chumbak-grahansheel key roop mein jaane jaane vaale janwar bhookamp seey pahale prithvi kii satah taka pahunchane vaali atee cumm aavritti aur atyant cumm aavritti shreniyon mein vidyut chumbakiya tarangon kaa pataa lagaane mein saksham hoe sakate hain, jisase visham vyavhaar hotaa haye. yeye vidyut chumbakiya tarangen vayu aayaneekaran, jall okseekaran aur sambhaavit jall vishaaktata kaa kaaran bhee bunn sakati hain jiska anya janwar pataa lagaa sakate hain.
failaav-prasaar.
1970 key dashak mein failaav-prasaar parikalpana koo sambhaavit bhookamp agraduton key roop mein dekhi jaane vaali vibhinn ghatnaaon key liye ack bhautik aadhar pradaan karane key roop mein maanaa jaataa thaa. yeh prayogshala prayogon key "thhos aur doharaane yogya sakshya" parr adharit thaa kii atyadhik dabaav vaali kristaliya chattan ney aayatan mein parivartan, yaa "failaav" kaa anubhav kiya, joe anya visheshtaon mein parivartan kaa kaaran banata haye, jaise kii bhookampiya wegg aur vidyut pratirodhakta, aur yahaan taka kii sthalaakriti key badey paimaane parr utthaan. yeh maanaa jaataa thaa kii yeh bhookamp seey thheek pahale ack 'praarambhik charan' mein huaa thaa, aur isaliye upayukt nigrani seey aasann bhookamp kii chetavani mill sakati haye.
praathamik aur dwiteeyak bhookampiya tarangon key saapeksh vegon mein bhinnataon kaa pataa lagaana-jise vee. pee./banaam key roop mein vyakt kiya gayaa haye-kyonki way ack nishchit kshetra seey gujarati hain, 1973 kii neeli pahaadi jheel (aine. vaaee.) aur 1974 key nadee key kinare (see. aeye.) bhookamp kii bhavishyavani karane kaa aadhar thaa. haalaanki yeye bhavishyavaniyaan anaupchaarik aur yahaan taka kii tuchchh bhee theen, unaki spasht safalata koo vistaar aur ack praarambhik prakriya key astitva donon kii pushti key roop mein dekhaa gayaa, jisake kaaran baad mein "betahasha atee-ashawadi bayaan" kahaa gayaa kii safal bhookamp kii bhavishyavani "vyaavhaarik vaastaviktaa key kagaar parr prateet hoti haye."
haalaanki, kaee adhyayanon ney inn parinamon parr sawal uthaaye, aur parikalpana antatah sust hoe gaee. baad key adhyayan seey pataa chalaa kii yeh "kaee karanon seey whiffle rhaa, joe kaafee hudd taka una dhaaranaon kii vaidhata seey judaa huaa thaa jinn parr yeh adharit thaa", jisamen yeh dhaarana bhee shamil thee kii prayogshala key parinamon koo vaastavik duniya taka badhaaya jaa sakata haye. ack anya kaarak maandandon key purvavyaapi chayan kaa purvagrah thaa. anya adhyayanon ney vistaar koo itna nagany dikhaaya haye kii yeh nishkarsh nikala gayaa haih "bhavishya kii ghatana key sambhaavit parimaan koo darshaane vaale ack badey paimaane parr 'taiyari kshetra' kii avadharana, michelson-morley prayog mein agyaat eather kii tarah alaukik bunny hui haye."
vee. pee./banaam mein parivartan.
"v" p chattan seey gujarane vaali bhookampiya "p" (praathamik yaa dabaav) tarang key wegg kaa prateek haye, jabaki "v" s "(maadhyamik yaa katarani) tarang key wegg kaa prateek haye. chhote paimaane key prayogshala prayogon seey pataa chalaa haye kii inn dou vegon kaa anupaat-jise "v" p/"v" s key roop mein darshaaya gayaa haye-taba badalata haye jaba chattan tootane key bindu key karib hoti haye. 1970 key dashak mein ise ack sambhaavit safalata maanaa gayaa thaa jaba russie bhookampavidon ney iss tarah key parivartanon koo dekhane kii soochana dee (baad mein chhoot dee gaee.) baad key bhookamp key kshetra mein. iss prabhaav key saath-saath anya sambhaavit poorvavartiyon koo vistaar key liye jimmedaar thaharaaya gayaa haye, jahaan chattan apane tootane key bindu key paas thodi failati haye (failati haye).
newyork raajya mein neeli pahaadi jheel key paas iss ghatana key adhyayan ney 1973 mein ack safal anaupchaarik bhavishyavani kii, aur ise 1974 key nadee key kinare (see. aeye.) bhookamp kii bhavishyavani karane kaa shreya diyaa gayaa. haalaanki, atirikt safalataaen naheen millie hain, aur yeh sujhaav diyaa gayaa haye kii yeye bhavishyavaniyaan ack aakasmik bhavishyavani theen. aeye "vee" pee/vee "kii visangati loss angils key paas 5,5 seey 6.5 meater key bhookamp kii 1976 kii bhavishyavani kaa aadhar thee, joe honey mein whiffle rhaa. khadaan visfoton (adhik sateek aur doharaane yogya) parr nirbhar anya adhyayanon mein aisee koee bhinnata naheen paaee gaee, jabaki california mein dou bhookampon key vishleshan mein paaya gayaa kii report kii gaee bhinnataaen detta key purvavyaapi chayan sahit anya karakon key kaaran honey kii adhik sambhavana thee. unhone kahaa kii lagbhag 1980 key baad seey mahatvapurna wegg parivartanon kii report bund hoe gaee haye.
raydon utsarjan.
adhikansh chattanon mein gasses kii chhoti matra hoti haye jinhen samasthaanik roop seey samanya vayumandaliya gasses seey alag kiya jaa sakata haye. ack badey bhookamp seey pahale aisee gasses kii sandrata mein spikes kii report haye; iska shreya bhookamp seey pahale key tanaav yaa chattan key tootane key kaaran chhoda gayaa haye. inmein seey ack gais raydon haye, joe adhikansh chattanon mein maujood euranium kii alp matra key radiodharmi kshay seey utpann hoti haye. raydon sambhaavit roop seey bhookamp key purvanumankarta key roop mein upayogi haye kyonki yeh radiodharmi haye aur iss prakaar aasaani seey pataa lagaaya jaa sakata haye, aur iska chhota ardh-jeevan (3.8 dinn) raydon key star koo alpakaalik utaar-chadhaav key prati samvedansheel banaata haye.
2009 key ack sankalan mein 1966 key baad seey 86 bhookampon seey pahale raydon utsarjan mein parivartan kii 125 reports koo soochibaddh kiya gayaa thaa. nagrik suraksha key liye bhookamp purvanuman parr antarrashtriya aayog (aisf) ney apani 2011 kii mahatvapurna sameeksha mein paaya kii jinn bhookampon key saath inn parivartanon koo jodaa gayaa haye, way ack hazaar kilometres door, maheenon baad aur sabhi parimaanon parr they. kuchh mamalon mein visangatiyaan door key sthaan parr dekhi gaeen, lekin nikat sthalon parr naheen. burf mein "koee mahatvapurna sahsambandh naheen" paaya gayaa.
vidyut chumbakiya visangatiyaan.
vidyut chumbakiya vikshobhon key avalokan aur bhookamp viphalata prakriya key liye unake kaaran 1755 key mahaan lisban bhookamp taka jaate hain, lekin vyaavhaarik roop seey 1960 key dashak key madhya seey pahale iss tarah key sabhi avalokan amaanya hain kyonki upayog kiye jaane vaale upkaran bhautik gati key prati samvedansheel they. taba seey vibhinn visangat vidyut, vidyut-pratirodhi aur chumbakiya ghatnaaon koo poorvavarti tanaav aur tanaav parivartanon key liye jimmedaar thaharaaya gayaa haye joe bhookamp seey pahale hotey hain, jisase ack vishvasaniya bhookamp poorvavarti khojane kii ummeed badh jaati haye. jabaki mutthi bhar shodhkartaon ney iss tarah kii ghatnaaon koo kaise utpann kiya jaa sakata haye, iss baare mein donon siddhanton key saath bahut dhyaan aakarshit kiya haye, bhookamp seey pahale aisee ghatnaaon koo dekhane key daavon koo vaastavik agradoot key roop mein naheen dikhaaya gayaa haye.
nagrik suraksha key liye bhookamp purvanuman parr antarrashtriya aayog" (aisf) dwara 2011 kii sameeksha mein paaya gayaa kii "sabse vishvasaniya" vidyut chumbakiya agradoot atee cumm aavritti chumbakiya visangatiyaan hain, jaise kii 1989 key loma prita bhookamp seey pahale darj coralitos ghatana (neeche charcha kii gaee). haalaanki, abb yeh maanaa jaataa haye kii avalokan ack pranali kii kharabi thee. 2004 key parkfield bhookamp key adhyayan mein kissy bhee prakaar key poorvavarti vidyut chumbakiya sanketon kaa koee pramaan naheen milaa; aage key adhyayan seey pataa chalaa kii 5 seey cumm parimaan vaale bhookamp mahatvapurna kshanik sanketon kaa utpaadan naheen karate hain. burf ney upayogi poorvavartiyon kii khoj koo asafal maanaa.
vaine bhookampiya vidyut sanket.
ack vidyut chumbakiya agradoot kaa sabse adhik prachaarit aur sabse adhik aalochana kii jaane vaali daavaa athens vishvavidyalaya key bhautiki professors panayotis varotsus, kesar alexopolos aur constantine nomicos (vaine) kii vaine vidhi haye. 1981 key ack shodh patra mein unhone daavaa kiya kii bhoo-vidyut voltage koo mapkar-jise way "bhookampiya vidyut sanket" (aiss. ee. aiss.) kahate hain-way bhookampon kii bhavishyavani curr sakate hain.
1984 mein, unhone daavaa kiya kii bhookamp aur bhookamp key beach ack "ack-seey-ack patrachar" thaa-yaani, "pratyek badey aque seey pahale ack cess hotaa haye" aur vipareet roop seey "pratyek cess key baad hamesha ack ack" parimaan aur kendra kaa vishvasaniya roop seey anuman lagaaya jaa sakata haye "-bhookamp seey 6 aur 115 ghante pahale dikhaai dene vaale cess. apani vidhi key pramaan key roop mein unhone safal bhavishyavaniyon kii ack shrinkhala kaa daavaa kiya.
haalaanki unaki report koo "kuchh logon dwara ack badee safalata key roop mein salaam kiya gayaa thaa", bhookampavidon key beach iska swaagat "saamaanyikrit sandeh kii lahar" dwara kiya gayaa thaa. 1996 mein, bhubhautikiya shodh patron kii patrika mein prastut ack pepper vaine koo sameekshakon key ack vyaapak samooh dwara ack abhootpoorv saarvajanik sahakarmi-sameeksha dee gaee, jisamen pepper aur sameeksha ack vishesh ank mein prakaashit hui; adhikansh sameekshakon ney vaine key tarikon koo trutipurna paaya. usee varsh kuchh pracharyon key beach ack saarvajanik bahas mein atirikt aalochana kii gaee.
ack praathamik aalochana yeh thee kii yeh vidhi bhubhautikiya roop seey avishvasaniya aur vaigyaanik roop seey anuchit haye. atirikt apattiyon mein bhookamp aur aiss. ee. aiss. key ack-seey-ack sambandh key daave kii spasht jhooth, vaastavik bhookampon seey dekhe gaye kissy bhee sanket seey adhik majboot sanket utpann karane vaali poorvavarti prakriya kii anabhigyata aur sanketon key maanav nirmit honey kii bahut prabal sambhavana shamil thee. grees mein aage key kaam ney vishisht maanav sroton parr vaapas cess jaise "visangat kshanik vidyut sanketon" koo track kiya haye, aur paaya haye kii aise sanketon koo cess kii pehchaan karane key liye vaine dwara upayog kiye jaane vaale maandandon dwara baahar naheen rakhaa gayaa haye. adhik halia kaary, saankhyikiya bhautiki key aadhunik tarikon koo niyojit karke, i.ee., apasaranit utaar-chadhaav vishleshan (dee. aff. aeye.), bahu-avkal dee. aff. aeye. aur tarang parivartan seey pataa chalaa haye kii aiss. ee. aiss. spasht roop seey maanav nirmit sroton dwara utpaadit sanketon seey alag hain.
vaine vidhi kii vaidhata, aur isaliye sez kaa bhavishyasoochak mahatva, mukhya roop seey pradarshit bhavishyasoochak safalata key anubhavjanya daave parr adharit thaa. vaine paddhati mein kaee kamjoriyon kaa pataa chalaa haye, aur 2011 mein nagrik suraksha key liye bhookamp purvanuman parr antarrashtriya aayog ney nishkarsh nikala kii vaine dwara daavaa kii gaee bhavishyavani kshamata koo maanya naheen kiya jaa sakata haye. adhikansh bhookamp vigyaani maanate hain kii vaine koo "jordar roop seey khariz curr diyaa gayaa" thaa. doosari or, "thhos prithvi bhubhautiki kaa vishvakoshah" (springer 2011) kaa khand "bhookamp agradoot aur bhavishyavani" "prithvi vigyaan shrinkhala kaa vishvakosh" (springer 2011) iss prakaar samaapt hotaa haih "haal hii mein yeh dikhaaya gayaa haye kii ack nae shuru kiye gaye samay kshetra" praakritik samay "mein samay-shrinkhala kaa vishleshan karke, mahatvapurna sthiti key drishtikon koo spasht roop seey pahachaana jaa sakata haye [sarlis aitt all. 2008]. iss tarah, way vaine bhavishyavani key pramukh samay koo kewal kuchh dinon taka cumm karane mein safal hue hain [ueda aur kamogawa 2008]. iska matlab haye kii aiss. ee. aiss. detta key saath sanyukt honey parr bhookampiya detta alpakaalik poorvavarti mein ack adbhut bhoomika nibha sakata haye.
2001 seey, vaine samooh ney ack avadharana pesh kii haye jise way "praakritik samay" kahate hain, joe unake poorvavartiyon key vishleshan parr lagu hoti haye. shuru mein ise shore seey alag karane aur unhein sambhaavit aasann bhookamp seey sambandhit karane key liye cess parr lagaaya jaataa haye. satyapan ("sez gatividhi" key roop mein vargeekaran) key mamle mein, praakritik samay vishleshan koo atirikt roop seey sez gatividhi seey judey kshetra kii samanya baad kii bhookampiyata parr lagu kiya jaataa haye, taaki bhavishyavani key samay mapdand mein sudhaar kiya jaa sakey. vidhi bhookamp kii shuruat koo ack mahatvapurna ghatana key roop mein maanati haye. 2020 mein adyatan vaine vidhi kii sameeksha mein kahaa gayaa haye kii yeh galat sakaratmak kii bahutaayat seey grast haye aur isaliye ack bhavishyavani protocol key roop mein upayog karane yogya naheen haye. vaine samooh ney vishisht tark mein galatfahmi koo ingit karke jawab diyaa. 
visangati.
sambhavatah abb taka kii sabse prasiddh bhookampiya-vidyut chumbakiya ghatana, aur sambhaavit bhookamp poorvavarti key sabse adhik uddhrit udaharanon mein seey ack, 1989 kii coralitos visangati haye. 1989 key loma preta bhookamp seey ack maheene pahale, aasann bhookamp key kendra seey sirf 7 kimmy door, coralitos, california mein ack magnetmeter dwara atee-cumm aavrittiyon parr prithvi key chumbakiya kshetra key maap, ayam mein visangat vriddhi dikhaana shuru curr diyaa. bhookamp seey sirf teen ghante pahale, maap samanya seey lagbhag tees gunaa adhik hoe gayaa, bhookamp key baad ayam cumm hoe gayaa. iss tarah key ayam dou saal key sanchaalan mein naheen dekhe gaye they, naa hii 54 kimmy door sthit isi tarah key upkaran mein. kaee logon key liye samay aur sthaan mein iss tarah key spasht sthaan ney bhookamp key saath ack sambandh kaa sujhaav diyaa.
baad mein uttari aur dakshini california mein atirikt magnetmeter tainaat kiye gaye, lekin duss saal aur kaee badey bhookampon key baad, isi tarah key sanket naheen dekhe gaye hain. haal key adhyayanon ney sambandh parr sandeh vyakt kiya haye, coralitos sanketon koo yaa tou asambandhit chumbakiya gadbadi yaa, isase bhee saralata seey, samvedak-pranali kii kharabi key liye jimmedaar thaharaaya haye.
friend bhautiki.
kristaliya bhautiki kii apani jaanch mein, friedeman frund ney paaya kii chattan mein antarnihit paani key anu ayanon mein vighatit hoe sakate hain yadi chattan teevra tanaav mein haye. parinami charge vaahak kuchh sthitiyon mein battery dhaara utpann curr sakate hain. friend ney sujhaav diyaa kii shayed yeye dhaaraaen bhookamp key poorvavartiyon jaise vidyut chumbakiya vikiran, bhookamp kii roshni aur ionmondal mein plasma kii gadbadi key liye jimmedaar hoe sakati hain. iss tarah kii dhaaraon aur antahkriyaon key adhyayan koo "frund bhautiki" key roop mein jaanaa jaataa haye.
adhikansh bhookamp vigyaani friend key iss sujhaav koo aswikar karate hain kii tanaav-utpann sanketon kaa pataa lagaaya jaa sakata haye aur kaee karanon seey poorvavarti key roop mein upayog kiya jaa sakata haye. sabse pahale, yeh maanaa jaataa haye kii ack badey bhookamp seey pahale tanaav teji seey jamaa naheen hotaa haye, aur iss prakaar badee dhaaraon key teji seey utpann honey kii ummeed karane kaa koee kaaran naheen haye. doosara, bhookampavidon ney parishkrit upkaran kaa upayog karke saankhyikiya roop seey vishvasaniya vidyut agraduton kii vyaapak roop seey khoj kii haye, aur aise kissy bhee agradoot kii pehchaan naheen kii haye. aur teesara, prithvi kii parat mein paani satah taka pahunchane seey pahale kissy bhee utpann dhaara koo avashoshit curr legaa.
ionmondal key dainik chakr mein gadbadi.
ionmondal aamtaur parr dinn key dauran apani nichali dee parat vikasit kartaa haye, jabaki raat mein yeh parat gayab hoe jaati haye kyonki vahaan kaa plasma gais mein badal jaataa haye. raat key dauran, ionmondal kii aff parat dee parat kii tulanaa mein adhik oonchaai parr bunny rahati haye. raat key dauran 10 megahertz taka kii cumm aich. aff. radio aavrittiyon key liye ack tarang margadarshika banati haye (skywave prasaar) kyonki aff parat inn tarangon koo prithvi parr vaapas pratibimbit karati haye. dinn key dauran akash kii lahar khou jaati haye, kyonki dee parat inn laharon koo avashoshit curr letee haye.
prithvi kii parat mein vivartanik tanaavon key kaaran vidyut avesh kii laharen utpann honey kaa daavaa kiya jaataa haye joe prithvi kii satah parr yatra karati hain aur ionmondal koo prabhaavit karati hain. ionmondal key dainik chakr kii alf * recording seey sanket milata haye kii uthale shaktishali bhookamp seey kuchh dinn pahale samanya chakr mein gadbadi hoe sakati haye. jaba gadbadi hoti haye, tou yeh dekhaa jaataa haye kii yaa tou dinn key dauran dee parat khou jaati haye jisake parinamswarup ionmondal kii oonchaai aur akash tarang kaa nirmaan hotaa haye yaa dee parat raat mein dikhaai detee haye jisake parinamswarup ionmondal kaa nichala hissa hotaa haye aur isaliye akash tarang kaa abhaav hotaa haye.
vigyaan kendron ney vaishvik star parr vee. ell. aff. transmitters aur receivers kaa ack network vikasit kiya haye joe akash kii lahar mein parivartan kaa pataa lagaata haye. pratyek receiver 1000-10,000 kilometres kii doori key liye dezzy transmitter bhee haye aur network key bheetar alag-alag aavrittiyon parr kaam curr rhaa haye. uttejana key tahat samanya kshetra koo network key ghanatva key aadhar parr nirdhaarit kiya jaa sakata haye. doosari or yeh dikhaaya gayaa thaa kii chumbakiya toofaan yaa saur jwala jaisi vaishvik charam ghatanaaen aur usee vee. ell. aff. path mein sthaaniya charam ghatanaaen jaise kii ack anya bhookamp yaa jwalamukhi visfot joe mulyankan key tahat bhookamp key saath nikat samay mein hotaa haye, usey mushkil yaa asambhav banaata haye.
2017 mein, "journal off geophysical research" mein ack lekh seey pataa chalaa kii 2000 seey 2014 taka vaishvik star parr honey vaali ayanmandaliya visangatiyon aur badee bhookampiya ghatnaaon (aim ≤ 6.0) key beach sambandh saur mausam kii upasthiti parr adharit thaa. jaba saur detta koo samay shrinkhala seey hataa diyaa jaataa haye, tou sahsambandh abb saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvapurna naheen hotaa haye. 2020 mein "prithvi aur grahon key andaruni bhaagon kii bhautiki" mein ack baad key lekh seey pataa chalata haye kii saur mausam aur ayanmandaliya gadbadi iss saankhyikiya sambandh key aadhar parr badey bhookampon koo trigger karane kaa ack sambhaavit kaaran hain. prastaavit tantra ionmondal seey fault kshetra mein vidyut chumbakiya preran haye. dosh taral padaarth pravaahakiya hotey hain, aur gaharaai mein telluric dhaaraon kaa utpaadan curr sakate hain. fault mein sthaaniya chumbakiya kshetra mein parinami parivartan khanijon key vighatan koo trigger kartaa haye aur chattan koo kamjor curr detaa haye, saath hii sambhaavit roop seey bhujal rasayan vigyaan aur star koo bhee badal detaa haye. bhookampiya ghatana key baad, vibhinn khanijon kaa avakshepit kiya jaa sakata haye iss prakaar bhujal rasayan vigyaan aur star phir seey badal jaataa haye. bhookamp seey pahale aur baad mein khanij vighatan aur varsha kii yeh prakriya iceland mein dekhi gaee haye. yeh model ionmondal, bhookampiya aur bhujal detta koo samajhata haye.
apekshit bhoo-tapman mein girawat kaa upgrah avalokan.
vivartanik tanaavon kii gatishilata kaa pataa lagaane kaa ack tarika upgrahon dwara maapi jaane vaali parat kii satah parr sthaaniya roop seey oonche tapman kaa pataa lagaana haye. mulyankan prakriya key dauran, vayumandaliya gadbadi aur maanav gatividhiyon key kaaran dainik bhinnata aur shore kii prishthabhoomi koo ack dosh key vyaapak kshetra mein rujhaanon kii ekagrata kii kalpana karane seey pahale hataa diyaa jaataa haye. yeh vidhi 1995 seey prayogaatmak roop seey lagu kii jaa rahee haye.
iss ghatana koo samajhaane key liye ack nae drishtikon mein, nassa key friedman friend ney prastaav diyaa haye kii upgrahon dwara pakada gayaa avarakt vikiran parat kii satah key tapman mein vaastavik vriddhi key kaaran naheen haye. iss sanskaran key anusaar utsarjan quantum uttejana kaa parinam haye joe sakaratmak avesh vaahakon (chhed) key rasayanik punah bandhan parr hotaa haye joe 200 meater prati sekand kii gati seey sabse gahari paraton seey parat kii satah taka yatra curr rahey hain. jaise-jaise bhookamp kaa samay aataa haye, vidyut avesh badhata vivartanik tanaav key parinamswarup utpann hotaa haye. yeh utsarjan bahut badee ghatnaaon key liye 500 x 500 varg kilometres taka satahi roop seey failata haye aur bhookamp key turant baad rook jaataa haye.
rujhaan.
visangat ghatnaaon koo dekhane key bajaay joe ack aasann bhookamp key poorvavarti sanket hoe sakate hain, bhookamp kii bhavishyavani karane key anya tareeke una rujhaanon yaa pattern kii talash karate hain joe bhookamp kaa kaaran banate hain. choonki yeye rujhaan jatil hoe sakate hain aur isamen kaee charr shamil hoe sakate hain, isaliye unhein samajhane key liye aksar unnat saankhyikiya takneekon kii aavashyakta hoti haye, isaliye inhen kabhi-kabhi saankhyikiya tareeke kahaa jaataa haye. yeye drishtikon adhik sambhaavit bhee hotey hain, aur inki samay avadhi adhik hoti haye, aur isaliye bhookamp purvanuman mein vilay hoe jaataa haye.
noucasting.
bhookamp key samay kaa nirdhaaran, joe 2016 mein sujhaaya gayaa thaa, 2001 mein shuru kiye gaye praakritik samay key aadhar parr ack bhookampiya pranali kii vartamaan gatishil sthiti kaa anuman haye. yeh purvanuman seey alag haye jiska uddeshya bhavishya kii ghatana kii sambhavana kaa anuman lagaana haye, lekin ise purvanuman key liye ack sambhaavit aadhar bhee maanaa jaataa haye. noucasting gananaaen "bhookamp sambhaavit ank" utpann karati hain, joe bhookamp kii pragati key vartamaan star kaa anuman haye. vishisht anuprayog hainh mahaan vaishvik bhookamp aur sunami, aftershock aur prerit bhookamp, gais kshetron mein prerit bhookamp, vaishvik mahanagaron key liye bhookamp kaa jokhim, badey vaishvik bhookampon key samooh kaa adhyayan aadi.
lochdaar paltaav.
sabse kathor chattan bhee poori tarah seey kathor naheen hoti haye. ack badey bull koo dekhate hue (jaise kii dou vishal vivartanik plates key beach ack dusare key peechhe seey aage badhate hue) prithvi kii parat jhuk jaayegi yaa vikrit hoe jaayegi. key lochdaar paltaav siddhant key anusaar, antatah viroopan (tanaav) itna badaa hoe jaataa haye kii kuchh toot jaataa haye, aamtaur parr ack maujooda fault parr. break (ack bhookamp) key saath fislan pratyek taraf kii chattan koo cumm vikrit sthiti mein palatane kii anumati detaa haye. iss prakriya mein oorjaa vibhinn roopon mein jaari kii jaati haye, jisamen bhookampiya tarangen bhee shamil hain. vivartanik bull kaa chakr lochdaar viroopan mein jamaa hoe rhaa haye aur achaanak paltaav mein jaari kiya jaa rhaa haye phir dohraya jaataa haye. choonki ack bhookamp seey visthaapan ack meater seey cumm seey lagbhag 10 meater (ack meater 8 bhookamp key liye) taka hotaa haye, saikadon meal key badey strike-slip visthaapan kaa pradarshit astitva ack lambe samay seey chala rahey bhookamp chakr key astitva koo darshaata haye.
vishisht bhookamp.
sabse adhik adhyayan kiye gaye bhookamp doshon (jaise kii nankai megathrust, washech fault aur saine andreas fault) key alag-alag khand prateet hotey hain. vishisht bhookamp" model yeh maanata haye kii bhookamp aam taur parr inn khandon key bheetar seemit hotey hain. choonki khandon kii lambai aur anya guna nishchit hain, isaliye poore dosh koo todane vaale bhookampon kii samaan visheshtaen honey chaahiye. inmein adhikatam parimaan (joe tootane kii lambai seey seemit haye) aur fault khand koo todane key liye aavashyak sanchit tanaav kii matra shamil haye. choonki plate kii nirantar gati key kaaran tanaav lagaatar jamaa hotaa haye, isaliye kissy diye gaye khand parr bhookampiya gatividhi mein samaan visheshtaon vaale bhookampon kaa prabhutva honah chaahiye joe kuchh niyamit antaral parr doharte hain. kissy diye gaye dosh khand key liye, inn vishisht bhookampon kii pehchaan karna aur unaki punaravritti darr (yaa isake vipareet vaapsee kii avadhi) kaa samay hamein agale fatane key baare mein soochit karna chaahiye; yeh aamtaur parr bhookampiya khatare key purvanuman mein upayog kiya jaane vaalaa drishtikon haye. yuu. aiss. aar. aff. 3 california raajya key liye taiyar kiye gaye iss tarah key purvanuman kaa ack ullekhaniya udaaharan haye. vaapsee avadhi kaa upayog anya durlabh ghatnaaon, jaise chakravaat aur baadh kaa purvanuman lagaane key liye bhee kiya jaataa haye, aur yeh maanate hue kii bhavishya kii aavritti aaj taka dekhi gaee aavritti key samaan hogi.
vishisht bhookampon kaa vichaar parkfield bhavishyavani kaa aadhar thaah 1857,1881,1901,1922,1934 aur 1966 mein kaafee samaan bhookampon ney harr 21.9 varshon mein ± 3.1 varshon key maanak vichalan key saath viram key ack pattern kaa sujhaav diyaa. 1966 kii ghatana key bahirveshan key kaaran 1988 key aspas yaa 1993 seey pahale navintam (95 pratishat vishvaas antaral parr) bhookamp kii bhavishyavani kii gaee. iss tarah kii vidhi kii appeal yeh haye kii bhavishyavani poori tarah seey "pravritti" seey praapt kii gaee haye, joe maanaa jaataa haye kii agyaat aur sambhavatah agyaat bhookamp bhautiki aur dosh maapdandon key liye jimmedaar haye. haalaanki, parkfield key mamle mein anumaanit bhookamp 2004 taka, ack dashak dair seey naheen aaya thaa. yeh iss daave koo gambhirta seey cumm kartaa haye kii parkfield mein bhookamp ardh-aavadhik hain, aur sujhaav detaa haye kii vyaktigat ghatanaaen anya mamalon mein yeh sawal karane key liye paryaapt roop seey bhinn hain kii kyaa unaki vishisht visheshataaen samaan hain.
parkfield bhavishyavani kii viphalata ney vishisht bhookamp model kii vaidhata key baare mein sandeh paida curr diyaa haye. kuchh adhyayanon ney vibhinn dhaaranaon parr sawal uthaaye hain, jisamen pramukh yeh haye kii bhookamp khandon key bheetar seemit hain, aur sujhaav diyaa haye kii "vishisht bhookamp" chayan purvagrah aur bhookamp sambandhi record (bhookamp chakron key saapeksh) kii kamee kii ack kalaakriti hoe sakati haye. anya adhyayanon mein iss baat parr vichaar kiya gayaa haye kii kyaa anya karakon parr vichaar karane kii aavashyakta haye, jaise kii galati kii umr. kyaa bhookamp key fatane aam taur parr ack khand key bheetar seemit hotey hain (jaisa kii aksar dekhaa jaataa haye), yaa pichhale khand kii seemaon koo todate hain (yeh bhee dekhaa jaataa haye), bhookamp key khatare kii degree parr seedha prabhaav padata haih bhookamp badey hotey hain jahaan kaee khand toot jaate hain, lekin adhik tanaav seey raahat paane mein way cumm baar honge.
bhookampiya antaral.
sampark mein aaney parr jahaan dou vivartanik platein ack dusare key peechhe seey fisalati hain, harr khand koo antatah fisalana chaahiye, kyonki (deerghakaalik roop seey) koee bhee peechhe naheen reh jaataa haye. lekin way sabhi ack hii samay mein naheen fisalate hain; vibhinn khand tanaav (viroopan) sanchay aur achaanak paltaav key chakr mein alag-alag charanon mein honge. bhookampiya antaral model mein "agale badey bhookamp" kii ummeed una kshetron mein naheen kii jaani chaahiye jahaan haal hii mein bhookamp ney tanaav koo cumm kiya haye, balki beach key antaral mein jahaan aprabhaavit tanaav sabse badaa haye. iss model mein ack sahaj gyaan yukt appeal haye; iska upayog deerghakaalik purvanuman mein kiya jaataa haye, aur yeh 1979 mein paridhiya-prashant (prashant rima) purvaanumaanon kii ack shrinkhala kaa aadhar thaa aur 1989-1991.
haalaanki, bhookampiya antaral key baare mein kuchh antarnihit dhaaranaaen abb galat maani jaati hain. ack karibi jaanch seey pataa chalata haye kii "ghatana key samay yaa kshetra mein agali badee ghatana key parimaan key baare mein bhookampiya antaral mein koee jaankaari naheen hoe sakati haye"; parigh-prashant purvanuman key saankhyikiya parikshanon seey pataa chalata haye kii bhookampiya antaral model ney "badey bhookampon kaa achchi tarah seey purvanuman naheen kiya thaa. ack anya adhyayan ney nishkarsh nikala kii ack lambi shaant avadhi seey bhookamp kii kshamata mein vriddhi naheen hui.
bhookampiyata key swaroop.
bhookampon kii bhavishyavani karane key liye vibhinn shodhaatmak roop seey vyutpann algorithm vikasit kiye gaye hain. shayed sabse vyaapak roop seey gyaat algorithm kaa (keylis-borok)। parivaar (aar. tii. pee. vidhi sahit) vladmir keylis-borok key netritva mein vikasit kiya gayaa haye. (keylis-borok)। chhote bhookampon key kuchh pattern koo dekhane parr ack nirdisht parimaan key badey bhookamp key liye "badhee hui sambhavana kaa samay" (tip) alarm jaari kartaa haye. tip aam taur parr paanch saal taka badey kshetron (ack hazaar kilometres taka) koo cover karate hain. itane badey maapdandon ney (keylis-borok)। koo vivadaspad banaa diyaa haye, kyonki yeh nirdhaarit karna mushkil haye kii joe hitt hui thee, usaki kushalata seey bhavishyavani kii gaee thee, yaa kewal sanyog kaa parinam.
(keylis-borok)। ney kaafee dhyaan aakarshit kiya jaba 2003 key saine simeon aur hokkaido bhookamp ack chhor key bheetar hue. 1999 mein, keilis-borok key samooh ney apane (keylis-borok)। aur msc model kaa upayog karke saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvapurna madhyavarti-avadhi key parinam praapt karane kaa daavaa prakaashit kiya, jahan taka vishva bhar mein badey bhookampon koo maanaa jaataa haye. haalaanki, geller aur anya. 30 varshon seey cumm kii kissy bhee avadhi mein bhavishyavani key daavon key prati sandeh haye. 2004 mein dakshini california mein ack aim. 6.4 bhookamp key liye vyaapak roop seey prachaarit tip puuraa naheen huaa thaa, naa hii dou anya cumm gyaat tip. 2008 mein aar. tii. pee. vidhi key ack gahan adhyayan mein paaya gayaa kii lagbhag bees alarmon mein seey kewal dou koo hitt maanaa jaa sakata haye (aur unamen seey ack mein vaise bhee honey kii 60 pratishat sambhavana thee). isane nishkarsh nikala kii "aar. tii. pee. bhookampiyata kii aitihaasik daron key aadhar parr anuman lagaane kii ack saral vidhi seey kaafee alag naheen haye."
"twarit kshan release" (aeye. aim. aar., "kshan" bhookampiya oorjaa kaa ack maap haye), jise samay-seey-viphalata vishleshan, yaa twarit bhookampiya kshan release (aeye. aiss. aim. aar.) key roop mein bhee jaanaa jaataa haye, una tippaniyon parr adharit haye joe ack badey bhookamp seey pahale kii gatividhi koo naa kewal badhaati hain, balki ack ghaatiya darr seey badhati hain. dusare shabdon mein, mukhya aghaat seey thheek pahale purvaanumaanon kii sanchayi sankhya kaa ack bhukhand adhik oonchaa hoe jaataa haye.
ack pareekshan yogya parikalpana key roop mein sutrikaran key baad, aur kaee sakaratmak reports key baad, kaee samasyaon key bavjood amar ashajanak lugg rhaa thaa. gyaat muddon mein sabhi sthaanon aur ghatnaaon key liye pataa naheen lagaaya jaanaa aur vakr kaa antim chhor khadee honey parr ack sateek ghatana samay koo prakshepit karane mein kathinaaee shamil thee. lekin kathor pareekshan seey pataa chalaa haye kii spasht aim. aar. aar rujhaan sambhavatah detta fitting key tareeke seey hotey hain, aur bhookampon key speciotemporal clustering key liye jimmedaar honey mein whiffle rahate hain. isaliye aim. aar. rujhaan saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvaheen hain. 2004 seey amar mein ruchi (jaisa kii sahakarmi-sameeksha kiye gaye patron kii sankhya seey aanka jaataa haye) cumm hoe gaee haye.
machine learning.
ruet-leduk aur anya. (2019) ney dhwanik samay shrinkhala detta parr ack pratigaman yaadrichhik vann koo safaltapurvak prashikshit karane kii soochana dee haye joe dosh kshetron seey utsarjit sanket kii pehchaan karane mein saksham haye joe dosh viphalata kaa purvanuman lagaata haye. ruet-leduk aur anya. (2019) ney sujhaav diyaa kii pahachaana gayaa sanket, jise pahale saankhyikiya shore maanaa jaataa thaa, ack purchy ghatana key dauran isake achaanak jaari honey seey pahale oorjaa key badhate utsarjan koo darshaata haye. ruet-leduk aur anya. (2019) ney aage kahaa kii unakaa drishtikon dosh viphalata key samay koo baadhya curr sakata haye aur anya agyaat sanketon kii pehchaan curr sakata haye. sabse vinashkari bhookampon kii durlabhata key kaaran, pratinidhi detta praapt karna samasyagrast banaa huaa haye. jawab mein, ruet-leduk aur anya. (2019) ney anuman lagaaya haye kii unake model koo vinashkari bhookampon key aankadon parr prashikshit karane kii aavashyakta naheen hogi, kyonki aage key shodh seey pataa chalaa haye kii bhookamp key pattern chhote bhookampon mein samaan hain.
bhookamp kii bhavishyavani parr bhee gahan gyaan kaa prayog kiya gayaa haye. haalaanki baath kaa niyam aur omori kaa niyam bhookamp key baad key jhatakon key parimaan aur unake samay-parivartankari gunon kaa varnan karate hain, lekin "aftershock key sthaanik vitaran" kii bhavishyavani ack khuli shodh samasya bunny hui haye. theono aur tenserflo software pustakalayon, deveries aadi kaa upayog karna. (2018) ney ack tantrika network koo prashikshit kiya jisane kulamb viphalata tanaav parivartan kii pahale seey sthaapit paddhati kii tulanaa mein bhookamp key baad key jhatakon key sthaanik vitaran kii bhavishyavani mein uchch sateekta praapt kii. vishesh roop seey, deveries aadi. (2018) ney bataaya kii unake model ney "receiver plain orientation yaa jyaamiti key baare mein koee dhaaranaaen naheen kii" aur katarani tanaav mein parivartan, "tanaav-parivartan tensor key swatantra ghatakon key nirpeksh moolyon kaa yog" aur wonn misses upaj mandand koo bhaari mahatva diyaa. devi aadi. (2018) ney maanaa kii inn bhautik maatraon parr unake model kii nirbharta ney sanket diyaa kii way "bhookampiya chakr key sabse sakriya hisse key dauran bhookamp koo niyantrit curr sakate hain."satyapan pareekshan key liye, devery aadi. (2018) sakaratmak prashikshan bhookamp detta namoonon kaa 10 pratishat aur yaadrichhik roop seey chune gaye nakaratmak namoonon kii samaan matra aarakshit kii gaee.
arnaud mignan aur marco brocardo ney isi tarah bhookamp kii bhavishyavani key liye kritrim tantrika network key anuprayog kaa vishleshan kiya haye. unhone saahitya kii sameeksha mein paaya kii kritrim tantrika network kaa upayog karke bhookamp kii bhavishyavani anusandhaan kshetra mein badhati ruchi key beach adhik parishkrit model kii or aakarshit huaa haye. unhone yeh bhee paaya kii bhookamp kii bhavishyavani mein upayog kiye jaane vaale tantrika network, ullekhaniya safalata darr key saath, saral model dwara pradarshan mein milan kiye gaye they. unhone bhookamp kii bhavishyavani karane key liye tantrika network koo prashikshit karane key liye upayukt detta praapt karane key muddon koo sambodhit kiya, yeh likhate hue kii "bhookamp catalog kii sanrachit, saaranibaddh prakriti" pardarshi machine learning model koo kritrim tantrika network kii tulanaa mein adhik vaanchhaniya banaati haye.
emp prerit bhookampiyata.
uchch oorjaa vidyut chumbakiya daalen emp generator dwara utsarjan key 2-6 dinon key bheetar bhookamp koo prerit curr sakati hain. yeh prastaavit kiya gayaa haye kii majboot aim prabhaav bhookamp koo niyantrit curr sakate hain, kyonki bhookamp kii gatishilata joe samanya seey bahut adhik niyamit prateet hoti haye.
ullekhaniya bhavishyavaniyaan.
yeye bhavishyavaniyaan yaa bhavishyavaniyon key daave hain, joe yaa tou vaigyaanik roop seey yaa saarvajanik kukhyaati key kaaran ullekhaniya hain, aur ack vaigyaanik yaa ardh-vaigyaanik aadhar kaa daavaa karate hain. choonki kaee bhavishyavaniyaan gopaniya roop seey aayojit kii jaati hain, yaa aspasht sthaanon mein prakaashit kii jaati hain, aur kewal tabhi ullekhaniya hoe jaati hain jaba unakaa daavaa kiya jaataa haye, isaliye ack chayan purvagrah hoe sakata haye kii hitt chookane kii tulanaa mein adhik dhyaan aakarshit karati hain. yahaan soochibaddh bhavishyavaniyon kii charcha hoff kii pustak aur geller key pepper mein kii gaee haye.
1975: heicheng, chean.
aim. 7.3 1975 heicheng bhookamp bhookamp kii bhavishyavani kii sabse vyaapak roop seey uddhrit "safalata" haye. spasht kahani yeh haye kii iss kshetra mein bhookampiya gatividhi key adhyayan ney cheeni adhikaariyon koo juuna 1974 mein ack madhyam avadhi kii bhavishyavani jaari karane key liye prerit kiya, aur isaliye raajneetik adhikaariyon ney gharon kii jabaran nikasi, "saral baahari sanrachanaon" kaa nirmaan aur gharon key baahar filmon koo dikhaane sahit vibhinn upaayon kaa adesh diyaa. bhookamp, 19:36 parr aaya, itna shaktishali thaa kii lagbhag aadhe gharon koo nasht yaa buri tarah seey nuksan pahuncha. halanki, kahaa jaataa haye kii "prabhaavi nivaarak upaayon" ney lagbhag 16 laakh kii aabaadi vaale kshetra mein marane vaalon kii sankhya koo 300 seey cumm rakhaa haye, anyatha hajaaron mauton kii ummeed kii jaa sakati thee.
haalaanki, ack badaa bhookamp aaya, lekin samay parr bhavishyavani key aadhar parr kiye gaye upaayon key baare mein kuchh sandeh haye. yeh ghatana saanskritik kranti key dauran hui, jaba "bhookamp kii bhavishyavani mein vishvaas koo vaichaarik roodhivaadita kaa ack tatva banaa diyaa gayaa thaa jisane sachche party liners koo dakshinpanthi vichalanvaadiyon seey alag kiya thaa. abhilekh rakhane mein gadbadi hui, jisase vivaranon koo satyaapit karna mushkil hoe gayaa, jisamen yeh bhee shamil thaa kii kyaa koee nikasi kaa adesh diyaa gayaa thaa. madhyam avadhi yaa alpakaalik bhavishyavaniyon ("adhyaksh maao kii krantikari rekha" key alawa) key liye upayog kii jaane vaali vidhi nirdisht naheen kii gaee haye. ack dinn pahale hue majboot (aim. 4.7) purvabhas key baad nikasi sahaj hoe sakati haye.
2006 key ack adhyayan mein, jisamen abhilekhon kii ack vyaapak shrinkhala taka pahunch thee, paaya gayaa kii bhavishyavaniyaan trutipurna theen. "vishesh roop seey, koee aadhikarik alpakaalik bhavishyavani naheen kii gaee thee, halanki iss tarah kii bhavishyavani vyaktigat vaigyaanikon dwara kii gaee thee."yeh bheeh" "kewal purvabhas hii they jinhone chetavani aur nikasi key antim nirnayon koo prerit kiya. unhone anuman lagaaya kii 2,041 logon kii zaan chully gaee. isase adhik kii mrityu kaee aakasmik paristhitiyon key kaaran naheen hui, jisamen pichhale maheenon mein bhookamp kii shiksha (badhee hui bhookampiya gatividhi seey prerit), sthaaniya pahal, samay (jaba loga naa tou kaam curr rahey they aur naa hii sou rahey they), aur nirmaan kii sthaaniya shally shamil hain. lekhakon ney nishkarsh nikala kii, ack bhavishyavani key roop mein asantoshjanak honey key bavjood, "yeh ack badey bhookamp kii bhavishyavani karane kaa ack prayaas thaa joe pahali baar vyaavhaarik viphalata key saath samaapt naheen huaa."
1981: lima, peru (brady).
1976 mein, bryan brady, ack bhautik vigyaani, phir yuu mein.aiss. khadaan beuro, jahan unhone chattanon key tootane kaa adhyayan kiya thaa, ney bhookamp key siddhant parr chaar lekhon kii ack shrinkhala kaa nishkarsh nikala, jisamen yeh anuman lagaaya gayaa thaa kii upa-vibhajan kshetra (peru key tata seey door) mein tanaav nirmaan key parinamswarup navambar 1974 key madhya seey saat seey chaudah varshon kii avadhi key bheetar badee teevrata kaa bhookamp hoe sakata haye. juuna 1978 mein likhe gaye ack aantarik gyaapan mein unhone samay khidki koo 9.2 ± 0 kii seema mein ack mukhya jhatake key saath "octuber seey navambar, 1981" taka seemit curr diyaa. 1980 key gyaapan mein unhein "madhya sitambar 1980" nirdisht karane key roop mein bataaya gayaa thaa. octuber 1980 mein saine juan, argentine mein ack vaigyaanik seminar mein iss parr charcha kii gaee thee, jahan brady key sahayogi doubleu. spains ney ack pepper prastut kiya. brady aur spains ney taba yuu. aiss. key sarkari adhikaariyon seey mulakat kii.aiss. aur peru 29 octuber koo, aur "1981 key uttaraardh mein badey paimaane parr bhookampon kii ack shrinkhala kaa purvanuman". yeh bhavishyavani peru mein vyaapak roop seey gyaat hoe gaee, jisake baad yuu.aiss. dutawas koo 26 janwari, 1981 koo "adhikansh lima dainik samachar patron mein prasaarit sansanikhej pahale prishth kii surkhiyon" key roop mein varnit kiya gayaa.
27 janwari 1981 koo, brady-spains bhavishyavani kii sameeksha karane key baad, yuu.aiss. rashtriya bhookamp purvanuman mulyankan parishad (aine. ee. pee. ee. see.) ney ghoshana kii kii yeh bhavishyavani kii "vaigyaanik vaidhata seey asantusht" thee, aur "dekhe gaye bhookamp key aankadon mein, yaa prastut kiye gaye siddhant mein, joe bhookamp key anumaanit samay, sthaanon aur parimaan koo padaarth pradaan kartaa haye, kuchh bhee naheen dikhaaya gayaa thaa."isane aage kahaa kii halanki anumaanit samay parr badey bhookampon kii sambhavana thee, lekin vaha sambhavana cumm thee, aur yeh sifarish kii kii" bhavishyavani parr gambhirta seey vichaar naheen kiya jaanaa chaahiye."
binaa soche samajhe, brady ney baad mein apane purvanuman koo sanshodhit karate hue kahaa kii 6 julaai, 18 agast aur 24 sitambar, 1981 koo yaa usake aspas cumm seey cumm teen bhookamp honge, jisase ack yuu. aiss. jee. adhikaari ney shikayat keeh "aggar usey iss khel koo jaari rakhane kii anumati dee jaati haye... antatah usey safalata milegi aur usake siddhanton koo kaee loga maanya maanenge."
28 juuna (pahali anumaanit bhookamp kii tarikh key roop mein sabse vyaapak roop seey lii gaee tarikh) koo, yeh bataaya gayaa thaa kih "lima kii aabaadi ack shaant ravivaar seey gujar gaee. ack peruvian samachar patra parr sheershakah "koee passo naada naheen" ("kuchh naheen hotaa").
julaai mein brady ney aupchaarik roop seey apani bhavishyavani koo iss aadhar parr vaapas leey liya kii poorv-aavashyak bhookampiya gatividhi naheen hui thee. iss ghatana key dauran paryatan mein kamee key kaaran honey vaale aarthik nuksan kaa anuman lagbhag sou million dollar lagaaya gayaa haye.
1985-1993: parkfield, yuu.aiss. (bakun-lindh).
parkfield bhookamp bhavishyavani prayog" abb taka kii sabse adhik ghoshit vaigyaanik bhookamp bhavishyavani thee. yeh ack avalokan parr adharit thaa kii saine andreas fault kaa parkfield khand harr kaee dashakon mein lagbhag aim 6 key madhyam bhookamp key saath niyamit roop seey tootata haih 1857,1881,1901,1922,1934, aur 1966. vishesh roop seey, ingit kiya kii, yadi 1934 key bhookamp koo baahar rakhaa jaataa haye, tou yeye harr 22 saal, ± 4.3 saal mein hotey hain. 1966 seey ginati karate hue, unhone 95 pratishat sambhavana kii bhavishyavani kii kii agala bhookamp 1988 key aspas, yaa 1993 key aspas aayega. rashtriya bhookamp purvanuman mulyankan parishad (aine. ee. pee. ee. see.) ney iska mulyankan kiya aur sahamati vyakt kii. yuu.aiss. bhoogarbhiya sarvekshan aur california raajya ney isaliye bhookamp aaney parr kissy bhee poorvavarti kii pehchaan karane key liye "duniya mein nigrani upkaranon key sabse parishkrit aur ghaney jaal" mein seey ack kii sthaapana kii. aatmavishvaas itna adhik thaa kii yadi bhookamp aaney key sanket hain tou aapaatkaaleen adhikaariyon koo sachet karane key liye vistrit yojana banaai gaee thee. arthashastri key shabdon menh "iss tarah kii ghatana key liye kabhi bhee itani savdhani seey ghaat naheen lagaaya gayaa haye."
varsh 1993 aaya aur binaa kissy poorti key beet gayaa. antatah 28 sitambar 2004 koo fault key parkfield khand parr ack aim 6 bhookamp aaya, lekin binaa kissy poorv chetavani yaa spasht poorvavarti key. jabaki bhookamp koo pakadane mein "prayog" koo kaee vaigyaanikon dwara safal maanaa jaataa haye, "bhavishyavani" iss baat mein whiffle rahee kii antim ghatana ack dashak dair seey hui thee.
1983-1995: grees (vaine).
1981 mein, panayotis varotsus key netritva vaale "vaine" samooh ney kahaa kii unhone bhookamp aur 'bhookampiya vidyut sanketon' (aiss. ee. aiss.) key beach sambandh paaya. 1984 mein unhone 19 janwari 1983 seey 19 sitambar 1983 taka key 23 bhookampon kii ack talika prastut kii, jisamen seey unhone 18 bhookampon kii safaltapurvak bhavishyavani karane kaa daavaa kiya thaa. anya soochiyon kaa anusaran kiya gayaa, jaise kii 1991 mein 1 aprail 1987 seey 10 agast 1989 kii avadhi mein ≤5,5 key saath saat mein seey chhah bhookampon kii bhavishyavani karane kaa unakaa daavaa, yaa 15 maee 1988 seey 10 agast 1989 kii ativyaapi avadhi mein ≤5.3 key saath saat mein seey paanch bhookamp, 1996 mein unhone "1 janwari, 1987 seey 15 juuna, 1995 taka jaari sabhi bhavishyavaniyon kaa saransh" prakaashit kiya, joe 94 bhavishyavaniyon kii raashi thee. ms (aeye. tii. aich.) key saath sabhi bhookampon" kii soochi key saath aur adhikansh yunan sahit bhaugolik seemaon key bheetar, way 14 bhookampon kii soochi key saath aatey hain jinaki unhein bhavishyavani karni chaahiye thee. yahaan way 70 pratishat kii safalata darr key liye duss safaltaon kaa daavaa karate hain.
vaine bhavishyavaniyon kii vibhinn aadharon parr aalochana kii gaee haye, jisamen bhoobhautik roop seey avishvasaniya, "aspasht aur aspasht", bhavishyavani maandandon koo puuraa karane mein whiffle rehna aur maapdandon kaa purvavyaapi samaayojan shamil haye. 14 mamalon kii ack mahatvapurna sameeksha jahaan vaine ney 10 safaltaon kaa daavaa kiya, kewal ack mamla dikhaaya jahaan bhavishyavani maapdandon key bheetar bhookamp aaya. mulargia aur gasperini key anusaar, vaine kii bhavishyavaniyaan naa kewal sanyog seey behtar karane mein whiffle rahati hain, balki "unase pahale hui ghatnaaon key saath ack behtar sambandh" bhee dikhaati hain. anya praarambhik sameekshaon mein paaya gayaa kii jaba nishchit maapdandon dwara mulyankan kiya jaataa haye, tou vaine key parinam saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvapurna they. iss avadhi kii vaine bhavishyavaniyon parr sakaratmak aur nakaratmak donon vichaaron koo surr james lighthill dwara sampaadit 1996 kii pustak "aeye critical review off vaine" mein aur journal geophysical research latters dwara prastut ack bahas key mudde mein sankshep mein prastut kiya gayaa thaa joe vaine vidhi key saankhyikiya mahatva parr kendrit thaa. vaine koo una sameeksha prakashanon mein apane alochakon koo jawab dene kaa avsar milaa. 2011 mein, icef ney 1996 kii bahas kii sameeksha kii, aur nishkarsh nikala kii vaine dwara daavaa kii gaee ashawadi sez bhavishyavani kshamata koo maanya naheen kiya jaa sakaa. 2013 mein, aiss. ee. aiss. gatividhiyon koo bhookampiyata key crum mapdand key utaar-chadhaav key nyuntam key saath sanyog paaya gayaa, jinhen ghatana sanyog vishleshan koo niyojit karke saankhyikiya roop seey mahatvapurna agradoot dikhaaya gayaa haye.
ack mahatvapurna mudda bhavishyavaniyon key badey aur aksar anishchit mapdand hain, jaise kii kuchh alochakon kaa kahana haye kii yeye bhavishyavaniyaan naheen hain, aur inhen iss tarah seey maanyata naheen dee jaani chaahiye. vaine key saath adhikansh vivaad inn maapdandon koo paryaapt roop seey nirdisht karane mein viphalata seey utpann hotaa haye. unake kuchh taaron mein dou alag-alag bhookamp kii ghatnaaon kii bhavishyavani shamil haye, jaise (aamtaur parr) ack bhookamp 300 kimmy "endablue" athens parr aur doosara 240 kimmy "doubleu" parr, 5,3 aur 5,8 "key saath, binaa kissy samay seema key. 2001 mein praakritik samay key madhyam seey vaine vidhi mein samay mapdand anuman shuru kiya gayaa thaa.
vaine ney apane alochakon key 'nirashawadi' nishkarshon parr vivaad kiya haye, lekin alochakon ney peechhe hatane kii koshish naheen kii haye. yeh sujhaav diyaa gayaa thaa kii vaine bhookampon key samooh key liye jimmedaar naheen thee, yaa unhone adhik bhookampiya gatividhi kii avadhi key dauran apane detta kii alag-alag vyakhya kii.
saarvajanik dahashat aur vyaapak ashanti paida karane key liye vaine kii kaee maukon parr aalochana kii gaee haye. yeh unaki bhavishyavaniyon kii vyaapaktaa seey badh gayaa haye, joe yunan key badey kshetron (240 kilometres taka aur aksar kshetron key jode) koo cover karate hain, joe vaastav mein anumaanit parimaan key bhookampon seey prabhaavit kshetron (aamtaur parr kaee dasiyon kilometres) kii tulanaa mein bahut badey hain. parimaan samaan roop seey vyaapak hainh "6.0" kaa anumaanit parimaan ack saumya parimaan 5.3 seey vyaapak roop seey vinashkari 6.7 taka kii seema kaa pratinidhitva kartaa haye. ack maheene yaa usase adhik kii anishchit samay khidakiyon key saath, iss tarah kii bhavishyavaniyon kaa "vyaavhaarik roop seey upayog naheen kiya jaa sakata" taiyari key uchit star koo nirdhaarit karane key liye, chaahe samanya samajik karyapranali koo cumm karna hoe, yaa saarvajanik chetaavaniyan jaari karna bhee hoe.
2008: grees (vaine).
2006 key baad, vaine kaa daavaa haye kii sez gatividhi seey sambandhit sabhi alarmon koo arxiv parr post karke saarvajanik curr diyaa gayaa haye.org. iss tarah kii gatividhi kaa mulyankan ack naee vidhi kaa upayog karke kiya jaataa haye jise way 'praakritik samay' kahate hain. aisee hii ack report farwari koo post kii gaee thee. 1, 2008, 1983-2011 avadhi key dauran grees mein sabse shaktishali bhookamp seey dou saptah pahale. yeh bhookamp 14 farwari, 2008 koo 6.9 teevrata key saath aaya thaa. vaine kii report kaa varnan farwari parr samachar patra ethanos mein ack lekh mein bhee kiya gayaa thaa. 10, 2008. haalaanki, gerasimos papadopolos ney tippani kii kii vaine kii report bhramit karane vaali aur aspasht thee, aur "safal vaine bhavishyavaniyon key liye koee bhee daavaa uchit naheen haye."iss tippani kaa jawab, jisamen bhavishyavani kii sateekta parr jore diyaa gayaa thaa, usee ank mein prakaashit kiya gayaa thaa.
1989: loma preeta, yuu.aiss..
1989 key loma preta bhookamp (saine juan batista, california key uttar-paschim mein saanta cruze pahaadon mein uparikendra) ney california key saine francisco khaadi kshetra mein mahatvapurna nuksan pahunchaaya. yuu.aiss. bhoogarbhiya sarvekshan (yuu. aiss. jee. aiss.) ney kathit taur parr ghatana key baarah ghante baad daavaa kiya kii usane pichhale varsh kii ack report mein iss bhookamp kaa "purvanuman" lagaaya thaa. baad mein yuu. aiss. jee. aiss. key karmchaariyon ney daavaa kiya kii iss bhookamp kaa "purvanuman" lagaaya gayaa thaa; bhavishyavani key kaee anya daave bhee kiye gaye hain.
rooth harris (Rut Harris) ney 1910 key 18 shodh patron (26 purvaanumaanon key saath) kii sameeksha kii joe 1989 key loma preta bhookamp key vaigyaanik purvaanumaanon koo vibhinn roop seey prastut karate hain yaa unase sambandhit hain."(iss mamle mein" "purvanuman" "key beach koee antar naheen kiya jaataa haye, joe kuchh samay avadhi mein honey vaale bhookamp key sambhaavit anuman aur adhik vishisht" "bhavishyavani" "taka seemit haye.) vishishtata kii kamee key kaaran inmein seey kissy bhee purvanuman kaa sakhti seey pareekshan naheen kiya jaa sakata haye, aur jahaan ack purvanuman sahee samay aur sthaan koo bracket kartaa haye, tou vindo itani vyaapak thee (jaise.jee., paanch varshon key liye california key badey hisse koo cover karate hue) ack bhavishyavani key roop mein kissy bhee moolya koo khone key liye. joe bhavishyavaniyaan karib aaeen (lekin kewal 30 pratishat kii sambhavana koo dekhate hue) unamen duss yaa bees saal kii khidakiyan theen.
ack bahas kii bhavishyavani (keylis-borok)। algorithm seey aaee jiska upayog keilis-borok aur sahyogiyon dwara chaar purvaanumaanon mein kiya gayaa thaa. inmein seey pahala purvanuman parimaan (aim 7.5) aur samay (1 janwari 1984 seey 31 disambar 1988 taka kii paanch saal kii avadhi) donon seey chook gayaa. adhikansh california aur aadhe nevada koo shamil karke unhein sthaan milaa. baad mein ack sanshodhan, jise nepec key saamane prastut kiya gayaa, ney samay khidki koo 1 julaai 1992 taka badhaa diyaa, aur sthaan koo kewal kendriya california taka cumm curr diyaa; parimaan samaan rhaa. unhone joe aankada prastut kiya, usamen dou aur sanshodhan they, madhya california mein 7 meater key bhookamp key liye. ack key liye paanch saal kii samay seema julaai 1989 mein samaapt hui, aur isaliye loma preta karyakram seey chook gayaa; doosara sanshodhan 1990 taka badhaa, aur isaliye isamen loma preta shamil thaa.
loma preta bhookamp kii safalata yaa viphalata kii bhavishyavani parr charcha karate samay, kuchh vaigyaanikon kaa tark haye kii yeh saine andreas fault (adhikansh purvaanumaanon kaa kendra) parr naheen huaa thaa, aur isamen strike-slip (kshaitij) andolan key bajaay dip-slip (urdhvaadhar) andolan shamil thaa, aur isaliye bhavishyavani naheen kii gaee thee.
anya vaigyaanikon kaa tark haye kii yeh saine andreas fault "zone" mein huaa thaa, aur 1906 key saine francisco bhookamp key baad seey jamaa adhikansh tanaav koo chhod diyaa; isaliye kaee purvanuman sahee they. hoff kaa kahana haye kii "adhikansh bhookamp vigyaani" yeh naheen maanate kii iss bhookamp kii "bhavishyavani" kii gaee thee. ack sakht arth mein koee bhavishyavani naheen thee, kewal purvanuman they, joe kewal aanshik roop seey safal they.
iben browning ney loma preta ghatana kii bhavishyavani karane kaa daavaa kiya thaa, lekin (jaisa kii agale khand mein dekhaa jaayega) iss daave koo khariz curr diyaa gayaa haye.
1990: nyu madrid, yuu.aiss. (braun).
iben browning (ph key saath ack vaigyaanik.dee. jeevbhautiki key roop mein prani vigyaan aur prashikshan mein degree, lekin bhoovigyaan, bhubhautiki yaa bhookamp vigyaan mein koee anubhav naheen) ack "swatantra vyavasaay salaahkaar" they joe vyavsaayon key liye deerghakaalik jalavaayu rujhaanon kaa purvanuman lagaate they. unhone iss vichaar (vaigyaanik roop seey apramaanit) kaa samarthan kiya kii jwalamukhi aur bhookamp key utpann honey kii sambhavana taba adhik hoti haye jaba soorya aur chandrama kaa jwaariya bull prithvi kii parat (sizzi) parr adhikatam dabaav daalane key liye mell khaata haye. jaba yeye jwaariya bull adhikatam hotey hain, tou ganana karane key baad, bhoore rung kaa honey parr "anuman" lagaaya jaataa haye kii kaun seey kshetra badey bhookamp key liye sabse adhik khatare mein they. misauri raajya key dakshin-poorv koney mein nayaa madrid bhookampiya kshetra, jiss kshetra kaa unhone aksar ullekh kiya thaa, vaha 1811-12 mein teen bahut badey bhookampon kaa sthal thaa, jise unhone 3 disambar 1990 kii tarikh key saath jodaa thaa.
browning kii pratishtha aur kathit vishvasaniyata koo taba badhaava milaa jaba unhone vibhinn prachaar flyers aur vigyapanon mein 17 octuber 1989 key loma preta bhookamp kii bhavishyavani (vibhinn anya ghatnaaon key saath) karane kaa daavaa kiya. rashtriya bhookamp bhavishyavani mulyankan parishad (aine. ee. pee. ee. see.) ney browning kii bhavishyavani kaa mulyankan karane key liye ack tadarth kaary samooh (aeye. aich. doubleu. jee.) kaa gathan kiya. isaki report (18 octuber 1990 koo jaari) ney vishesh roop seey loma preta bhookamp kii safal bhavishyavani key daave koo khariz curr diyaa. 10 octuber koo saine francisco mein unake bhaashan kii ack pratilekh seey pataa chalaa kii unhone kahaa thaah "duniya bhar mein kaee bhookamp honge, 6 + seey adhik, aur ack yaa dou jwalamukhi hoe sakate hain"-joe vaishvik star parr, lagbhag ack saptah key liye ausat haye-california mein kissy bhee bhookamp kaa koee ullekh naheen haye.
halanki aahvag report ney browning key poorv safalata key daavon aur unake "prakshepan" key aadhar donon koo khariz curr diyaa, lekin ack saal taka safal bhavishyavani key nirantar daavon key baad iska bahut cumm prabhaav padaa. browning kii bhavishyavani koo bhoobhautik vigyaani david stevert kaa samarthan milaa, aur ack badee aapada kii taiyari mein kaee saarvajanik adhikaariyon kaa maun samarthan milaa, joe sabhi samachar media mein badey paimaane parr ujagar honey seey badhe. 3 disambar koo kuchh naheen huaa, aur saat maheene baad dill kaa daura padane seey browning kii mrityu hoe gaee.
2004 aur 2005: dakshini california, yuu.aiss. (keylis-borok).
(keylis-borok)। algorithm (yuu. see. ell. aeye. mein vladmir keylis-borok key netritva mein vikasit) ney 2003 key saine simone aur hokkaido bhookampon kii spasht roop seey safal bhavishyavaniyon seey sammaan praapt kiya. isaliye 2004 kii shuruat mein dakshini california key lagbhag 12,000 varg kilometres key kshetra mein kaheen bhookamp aaney kii bhavishyavani seey bahut dilchaspi paida hui thee. 5 sitambar 2004 koo yaa usase pahale, iss bhavishyavani kaa mulyankan karate hue california bhookamp bhavishyavani mulyankan parishad (see. ee. pee. ee. see.) ney nott kiya kii iss vidhi ney abhee taka saankhyikiya satyapan key liye paryaapt bhavishyavaniyan naheen kii theen, aur input dhaaranaon key prati samvedansheel thee. isaliye isane nishkarsh nikala kii koee "vishesh saarvajanik neeti kaarravaai" aavashyak naheen thee, halanki isane sabhi california key logon koo "poore raajya mein mahatvapurna bhookampiya khatron" kii yaad dilaaee."anumaanit bhookamp naheen aaya.
dakshini california key lagbhag usee kshetra mein 14 agast 2005 koo yaa usase pahale bhookamp key liye ack bahut hii samaan bhavishyavani kii gaee thee. see. ee. pee. ee. see. kaa mulyankan aur sifarish anivarya roop seey samaan thee, iss baar yeh dhyaan mein rakhate hue kii pichhali bhavishyavani aur dou anya poori naheen hui thee. yeh bhavishyavani bhee whiffle rahee.
2009: ll 'akila, itali (giuliani).
6 aprail 2009 koo madhya itali key abruzo kshetra mein 6.3 meater teevrata kaa bhookamp aaya thaa. ll 'akvila shahar aur aspas key kshetra mein lagbhag 60,000 imaaraten dhaha gaeen yaa gambhir roop seey kshatigrast hoe gaeen, jisake parinamswarup 308 mautein huin aur 67,500 loga beghar hoe gaye. lagbhag usee samay, yeh bataaya gayaa thaa kii giampolo giuliani ney bhookamp kii bhavishyavani kii thee, janata koo chetavani dene kii koshish kii thee, lekin italvi sarkaar ney unakaa munh bund curr diyaa thaa.
giampolo giuliani prayogshala nazionali dell grain sasso mein ack prayogshala technician they. ack shauk key roop mein way kuchh varshon seey apane dwara design aur nirmit upkaranon kaa upayog karke raydon kii nigrani curr rahey they. ll 'akvila bhookamp seey pahale way vaigyaanik samudaay key liye anjaan they, aur unhone koee vaigyaanik kaary prakaashit naheen kiya thaa. 24 march koo ack italvi bhasha key blogg, "donne democrateche" dwara unakaa sakshatkar liya gayaa thaa, joe pichhale disambar mein shuru hue abruzo kshetra mein nimn-stariya bhookampon key jhund key baare mein thaa. unhone kahaa kii yeh jhund samanya thaa aur march key anta taka cumm hoe jaayega. 30 march koo, ll 'akvila mein 4 teevrata kaa bhookamp aaya, joe abb taka kaa sabse badaa bhookamp thaa.
27 march koo giuliani ney ll 'akvila key mahapour koo chetavani dee kii 24 ghante key bheetar bhookamp aaa sakata haye, aur bhookamp aim. aim. 2.3 hoe sakata haye. 29 march koo unhone doosari bhavishyavani kii. unhone ll 'akvila seey lagbhag 55 kilometres dakshin-poorv mein sthit salmona shahar key mahapour koo 6 seey 24 ghanton key bheetar ack "hanikarak"-yaa yahaan taka kii "vinashkari"-bhookamp kii ummeed karane key liye telephone kiya. loudspeaker vaine kaa upayog salmona key nivaasiyon koo khaali karane key liye chetavani dene key liye kiya gayaa thaa, jisake parinamswarup dahashat fail gaee thee. koee bhookamp naheen aaya aur giuliano koo saarvajanik chetavani dene key liye uddhrit kiya gayaa aur bhavishya mein saarvajanik bhavishyavaniyaan karane seey manaa curr diyaa gayaa.
ll 'akvila ghatana key baad giuliani ney daavaa kiya kii unhone kuchh ghante pahale raydon key star mein khatarnak vriddhi paaee thee. unhone kahaa kii unhone bhookamp seey pahale shaam koo rishtedaron, doston aur sahyogiyon koo chetavani dee thee. baad mein nagrik suraksha key liye bhookamp purvanuman parr antarrashtriya aayog dwara unakaa sakshatkar liya gayaa, jisamen paaya gayaa kii giuliani ney isaki ghatana seey pahale nagrik adhikaariyon koo mukhya jhatake kii ack vaidh bhavishyavani naheen preshit kii thee.
kathinaaee yaa asambhavata.
jaisa kii pichhale udaharanon seey pataa chalata haye, bhookamp kii bhavishyavani kaa record nirashajanak rhaa haye. 1970 key dashak kaa ashawad kii bhookampon kii niyamit bhavishyavani "jald hii" hogi, shayed duss varshon key bheetar, 1990 key dashak taka nirashajanak roop seey cumm hoe rahee thee, aur kaee vaigyaanik sochane lagey kii kyon. 1997 taka yeh sakaratmak roop seey kahaa jaa rhaa thaa kii bhookampon kii bhavishyavani naheen kii jaa sakati haye, jisake kaaran 1999 mein ack ullekhaniya bahas hui kii kyaa vyaktigat bhookampon kii bhavishyavani ack yathaarthvaadi vaigyaanik lakshya haye.
bhookamp kii bhavishyavani kewal isaliye whiffle hui hogi kyonki yeh "bhayaavah roop seey kathin" haye aur abhee bhee vigyaan kii vartamaan kshamata seey parey haye. chaar dashak pahale iss aatmavishvaaspurna ghoshana key bavjood kii bhookamp vigyaan vishvasaniya bhavishyavaniyaan karane key kagaar parr thaa, kathinaaiyon kaa abhee bhee cumm aaklan kiya jaa sakata haye. 1978 mein yeh bataaya gayaa thaa kii bhookamp tootana "fault key saath yaantrik gunon key visham vitaran" seey jatil hoe sakata haye, aur 1986 mein fault kii satah mein jyaamitiya aniyamitataaen "fatane kii shuruat aur rokane parr badey niyantran karati prateet hoti hain. ack anya adhyayan ney dosh key vyavhaar mein mahatvapurna antar koo dosh kii paripakvata key liye jimmedaar thaharaaya. iss prakaar kii jatilataaen vartamaan bhavishyavani vidhiyon mein pratibimbit naheen hoti hain.
bhookamp vigyaan mein abhee bhee apani sabse kendriya avadharana, lochdaar paltaav siddhant kii paryaapt samajh kii kamee hoe sakati haye. ack anukaran jisane purchy key vitaran key sambandh mein dhaaranaon kaa pataa lagaaya, parinam "lochdaar paltaav siddhant key shaastriya drishtikon key saath sahmat naheen" paae gaye. (iska shreya dosh vishamta key vivaran koo diyaa gayaa thaa joe siddhant mein naheen haye.)
bhookamp kii bhavishyavani aantarik roop seey asambhav hoe sakati haye. 1997 mein, yeh tark diyaa gayaa haye kii prithvi swa-sangathit sankat kii sthiti mein haye "jahaan kissy bhee chhote bhookamp mein ack badee ghatana mein girane kii kuchh sambhavana hoti haye. nirnay-saiddhaantik aadharon parr bhee yeh tark diyaa gayaa haye kii "badey bhookampon kii bhavishyavani, kissy bhee vyaavhaarik arth mein, asambhav haye."2021 mein, chean key bhookampiya-vidyut chumbakiya upgrah kaa adhyayan karane vaale vibhinn vishvavidyalayon aur anusandhaan sansthanon key lekhakon kii ack bheed ney bataaya kii swa-sangathit gambhirta parr adharit daave yeh kahate hue kii kissy bhee samay koee bhee chhota bhookamp antatah ack badee ghatana mein badal sakata haye, praakritik samay vishleshan dwara aaj taka praapt parinamon koo dhyaan mein rakhate hue naheen khade hotey hain.
bhookamp kii bhavishyavani aantarik roop seey asambhav hoe sakati haye, iss parr dridhata seey vivaad kiya gayaa haye, lekin asambhavata key sabse achche khandan-prabhaavi bhookamp kii bhavishyavani-koo abhee taka pradarshit naheen kiya gayaa haye.

