aspasht sambhavana

aspasht sambhaavyata aanshik sambhaavyata vinirdeshon kii anumati dene key liye sambhaavyata siddhant koo samanya banaati haye, aur jaba jaankaari durlabh, aspasht yaa paraspar virodhi hoti haye, tou yeh lagu hoti haye, jiss mamle mein ack advitiya sambhaavyata vitaran kii pehchaan karna mushkil hoe sakata haye. iss prakaar, siddhant kaa uddeshya upalabdh gyaan koo adhik sateek roop seey prastut karna haye. visheshagya nishkarshan seey nipatane key liye ashuddhata upayogi haye, kyonkih
parichay.
anishchitata paaramparik roop seey ack sambhavana vitaran dwara model kii jaati haye, jaisa kii kolmogorov, lapless, dee finetti, ramsey, cox, lindley aur kaee anya logon dwara vikasit kiya gayaa haye. haalaanki, vaigyaanikon, saankhyikividon aur sambhavyatavidon dwara ise sarvasammati seey sweekaar naheen kiya gayaa haih yeh tark diyaa gayaa haye kii sambhaavyata siddhant key kuchh sanshodhan yaa vistaar kii aavashyakta haye, kyonki koee bhee hamesha pratyek ghatana key liye sambhavana pradaan karane mein saksham naheen hoe sakata haye, vishesh roop seey jaba kewal cumm jaankaari yaa detta upalabdh hoe-iss tarah kii aalochana kaa ack praarambhik udaaharan haye lapless key kaam kii booley kii aalochana-yaa jaba humm ack samooh kii tulanaa mein ack samooh dwara sahmat honey vaali sambhaavanaon koo model karna chaahte hain.
shayed sabse aam saamaanyikaran ack ekal sambhavana vinirdesh koo ack antaral vinirdesh key saath badalana haye. nimn aur uchch sambhaavanaaen, sootra _ 1 aur sootra _ 2 dwara niroopit, yaa adhik aam taur parr, cumm aur uchch apekshaaen (prabalataaen), iss antar koo bharane kaa lakshya rakhti hain. 
ack cumm sambhavana falan atiavsar haye lekin aavashyak roop seey yogaatmak naheen haye, jabaki ack oopari sambhavana upavarsheel haye.
siddhant kii samanya samajh praapt karane key liye, vichaar karenh
phir hamaare paas beach mein cumm yaa jyada sateek model kii ack lachili nirantarta hoti haye.
kuchh drishtikon, jinhen "gair-jodd sambhaavanaon" key naam seey sankshep mein prastut kiya gayaa haye, seedhe inn sett karyon mein seey ack kaa upayog karate hain, yeh maanate hue kii dusare koo praakritik roop seey paribhaashit kiya gayaa haye jaise kii sootra _ 8, sootra _ 9 key saath sootra _ 4 kaa poorak. anya sambandhit avadhaaranaaen sabhi ghatnaaon key liye sambandhit antaral sootra _ 11 koo mool ikai key roop mein samajhati hain.
itihas.
aspasht sambhavana kaa upayog karane key vichaar kaa ack lamba itihas haye. pahala aupchaarik upchaar cumm seey cumm unnisvin shatabdi key madhya mein george bool dwara kiya gayaa thaa, jinka uddeshya tark aur sambhavana key siddhanton koo sametna thaa. 1920 key dashak mein, "sambhavana parr ack granth" mein, keynes ney sambhavana key liye ack spasht antaral anuman drishtikon taiyar kiya aur lagu kiya.
aspasht sambhavana model parr kaam poore 20veen shatabdi mein bernard coopman, see. key mahatvapurna yogdan key saath aage badhaa.aeye.bee. smith, aaee.jey. achchha, arther dempster, glain schafer, peater aim. williams, heinry keberg, isaq levi aur teddy seidenfeld.
1990 key dashak kii shuruat mein, peater walley kii pustak "aspasht sambhaavanaon key saath saankhyikiya tark" key prakaashan key saath kshetra ney kuchh gati praapt karna shuru curr diyaa."
(jahan "aspasht sambhavana" shabd kii utpatti hoti haye).
1990 key dashak mein kuznetsov aur weachselberger dwara mahatvapurna kaary bhee dekhe gaye, joe donon "antaral sambhavana" shabd kaa upayog karate hain. walley kaa siddhant juay key liye kimaton koo khareedane aur bechane key madhyam seey paaramparik vyaktiparak sambhavana siddhant kaa vistaar kartaa haye, jabaki weachselberger kaa drishtikon ack vyakhya lagu kiye binaa kolmogorov key swayamsiddh siddhanton koo samanya banaata haye.
maanak sthirata sthitiyaan uchch aur nimn sambhavana assignment koo gair-khaali bund uttal sambhaavyata vitaran key sett seey sambandhit karati hain. isaliye, ack swaagat yogya upa-utpaad key roop mein, yeh siddhant majboot saankhyiki aur gair-parametric saankhyiki mein upayog kiye jaane vaale model key liye ack aupchaarik dhancha bhee pradaan kartaa haye. isamen chayan ekikaran parr adharit avadhaaranaaen bhee shamil hain, aur tathaakathit dou-monotone aur poori tarah seey monotone kshamataaen, joe kritrim buddhimatta mein (dempster-schafer) vishvaas karyon key naam seey bahut lokpriya hoe gaee hain. isake alawa, schafer aur vovk kii khel-saiddhaantik sambhavana kii dhaarana key saath ack majboot sambandh haye.
ganitiya model.
aspasht sambhavana" shabd kuchh hudd taka bhraamak haye kii sateekta koo aksar sateekta key liye galat samajha jaataa haye, jabaki ack aspasht pratinidhitva ack sateek pratinidhitva kii tulanaa mein adhik sateek hoe sakata haye. kissy bhee mamle mein, yeh shabd 1990 key dashak mein sthaapit huaa prateet hotaa haye, aur sambhavana key siddhant key vistaar kii ack vistrit shrinkhala koo shamil kartaa haye, jisamen shamil hainh
aspasht sambhaavanaon kii vyakhya.
uparokt kaee aspasht sambhavana siddhanton kaa ekikaran walley dwara prastaavit kiya gayaa thaa, halanki yeh kissy bhee tarah seey aspasht sambhaavanaon koo aupchaarik banaane kaa pahala prayaas naheen haye. sambhaavyata vyakhyaon key sandarbh mein, walley kaa aspasht sambhaavanaon kaa nirmaan sambhaavyata kii beyeshiyan vyakhya key vyaktiparak sanskaran parr adharit haye. walley oopari aur nichali sambhaavanaon koo oopari aur nichale prabhaavon key vishesh mamalon aur bruno dee finetti dwara unnat juaa dhaanche key roop mein paribhaashit kartaa haye. saral shabdon mein, ack nirnay nirmaata kii cumm dhaarana uchchatam keemat haye jiss parr nirnay nirmaata koo yakeen haye kii vaha ack juaa khareedega, aur oopari dhaarana sabse cumm keemat haye jiss parr nirnay nirmaata koo yakeen haye kii vaha juaa key vipareet khareedega (joe mool juaa bechane key barabar haye). yadi oopari aur nichale star samaan hain, tou way sanyukt roop seey juaa key liye nirnay nirmaata key uchit moolya kaa pratinidhitva karate hain, usa moolya parr jiss parr nirnay nirmaata juaa kaa donon paksh lene koo taiyar haye. uchit moolya kaa astitva sateek sambhaavanaon kii or leey jaataa haye.
ashuddhata key liye bhatta, yaa nirnay nirmaata key oopari aur nichale purvagrahon key beach kaa antar, sateek aur aspasht sambhavana siddhanton key beach praathamik antar haye. sattebaji baajaron mein iss tarah key antaral swabhavik roop seey utpann hotey hain joe asmamit jaankaari key kaaran vittiya roop seey taral naheen hotey hain. yeh antar heinry kyberg dwara baar-baar unaki antaral sambhaavanaon key liye bhee diyaa jaataa haye, halanki vaha aur isaq levi antaral key liye anya kaaran bhee dete hain, yaa vitaran key sett, vishvaas kii sthitiyon kaa pratinidhitva karate hain.
aspasht sambhaavanaon key saath mudde.
aspasht sambhaavanaon key saath ack mudda yeh haye kii ack antaral key upayog mein aksar ack vyaapak yaa sankeern antaral key bajaay ack swatantra savdhani yaa saahas nihit hotaa haye. yeh vishvaas kii ack degree, aspasht sadasyata kii degree, yaa sweekriti kii seema hoe sakati haye. yeh una antaralon key liye utani samasya naheen haye joe sambhaavyata vitaran key ack sett seey praapt nimn aur oopari seemaaen hain, ee.jee., priors kaa ack sett jisake baad sett key pratyek sadasya parr sashartkaran kiya jaataa haye. haalaanki, yeh sawal paida curr sakata haye kii kuchh vitaranon koo priors key sett mein kyon shamil kiya gayaa haye aur kuchh naheen.
ack anya mudda yeh haye kii ack ekal sankhya, ack bindu sambhavana key bajaay dou sankhyaon key baare mein sateek kyon hoe sakata haye, ack nimn seema aur ack oopari seema. yeh mudda kewal alankaarik hoe sakata haye, kyonki antaral key saath ack model kii majbooti swabhavik roop seey bindu-moolya vaali sambhaavanaon vaale model kii tulanaa mein adhik hoti haye. yeh antim binduon parr sateekta key anuchit daavon key saath-saath bindu moolyon key baare mein chintaon koo badhaata haye.
ack adhik vyaavhaarik mudda yeh haye kii kiss prakaar kaa nirnay siddhant aspasht sambhaavanaon kaa upayog curr sakata haye. aspasht upaayon key liye, ronald aar kaa kaam haye. yagar. vitaran key uttal sett key liye, levi key kaary nirdeshaatmak hain. ack anya drishtikon poochata haye kii kyaa antaral kii saahas koo niyantrit karane kii seema kewal ausat lene yaa ack herviz nirnay niyam kaa upayog karane seey adhik nirnay key liye mayane rakhti haye. anya drishtikon saahitya mein dikhaai dete hain.

