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Epidemiological trends of leprosy elimination in CLTRI rural field operation area, Tamil Nadu, India.

The analysis of computerized data of patients in our Rural Field Operation Area (Kunrathur Taluk, Kancheepuram District, Tamil Nadu) from the start of MDT in 1986 has shown a decrease of leprosy prevalence from 275/10000 in 1986 to 0.7/10000 in 2005. Leprosy has been eliminated as a public health problem after 19 years of MDT implementation. Although the control programme was started in 1962, MDT implementation began only in 1986. The new case-detection rate has declined significantly from 27.3 in 1987 to 2.4/10000 in 2005 (y = -1.6x + 2325.1, p = < 0.05). The age-specific cumulative detection rates calculated showed highest case-detection at 10-14 years for total, 10-14 years for PB, 50-54 for MB, and 10-14 for both males and females. MB percentage was more among new cases in the last three years as compared to the initial three years, and this difference was found to be statistically significant, but there was no significant difference between the first three and the last three-year periods in child, male and disability rates (grade +/-2) among new cases. Thus, the declining trend in NCDR has not reflected any change in sex and age-groups of new cases. This analysis strengthens the hypothesis of sub-clinical cases possibly transmitting the disease and MB cases accruing after long incubation period.