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How Could GHG Reduction Targets Beyond 2012 Influence Investments in Electricity Generation in Belgium

This article discusses the influence a specific (determined ex ante) target to reduce energy related CO2 emissions in the period after 2012 initiates on the Belgian power generation system. In a first step, a baseline is defined in which current policy and ongoing trends and structural changes are supposed to continue. Over the period 2000-2030, the average electricity and steam production cost rise 36% and sector specific investments between 2006 and 2030 amount up to € 17 billion (expressed in €2000), covering the replacement of obsolete plants and the additional capacity needed to cope with surging demand (on average +1.0% per annum). In terms of energy CO2, the most dominant greenhouse gas, the baseline foresees a growth by 32% compared to 1990, the base year of the Kyoto Protocol. In order to combat climate change, the energy scene depicted in the baseline is obviously not sustainable. The article then changes scope and sets a -15% target in comparison with 1990 on energy CO2 emissions on Belgian soil to be reached by the year 2030. In order to accomplish this goal, three energy policy frameworks are examined. These frameworks are in fact different combinations of (the lack of) two energy technologies, namely nuclear power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The impact of this -15% objective on the production of electricity and steam and more specifically on investments in the sector is scrutinized.