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Explanation of Risk Influences Diagrams

In this paper, we propose a method of model and reasoning explanation of influence diagrams in risk management. Firstly, risk influence diagrams are defined according to the characteristics of risk management and the basic idea of their explanation is given. Then a method of computing the magnitude and signs of influence is proposed to convert risk influence diagrams to qualitative/semi-qualitative networks. The model is explained both verbally and graphically by using langue representation for imprecise probability and drawing the arcs in different colors and width. By using qualitative belief propagation on the corresponding qualitative network and three types of elementary explanations of qualitative inference, verbal explanation of the reasoning of risk influence diagrams are generated. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the process of the explanation.