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A simple prognostic index for hospitalized geriatric patients. A prospective study of 70 patients.

A simple prognostic index for hospitalized geriatric patients is reported herein. Seven parameters including: mobility, sphincter control, mental competence, feeding ability, presence of pressure sores, medical condition and family state were recorded in 70 patients. The sum of the scores of all parameters constituted the prognostic index. At the end of 3 months the patients were divided into two groups: 18 patients who were discharged (group 1) and 52 patients who were still hospitalized (35 cases) or had died (17 cases) (group 2). The mean index for group 1 was 14.9 +/- 3.2 (mean +/- SD), while that for group 2 was 23.5 +/- 4.3 (p less than 0.00001). Eighty-three percent of the patients in group 1 and only 8% of those in group 2 had scored lower than 17. Thus, the score of 17 or more had a prognostic sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 83%. The predictive value of indices of 17 or more was 94%. The index described offers therefore a simple and relatively accurate tool for the assessment of the prognosis of elderly patients.