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Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school‐level and locality‐level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult’s educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and ‘A’‐level scores. By applying three‐level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality‐level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.