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The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic: How are the Future Tourist Behavior?

Aims: This research examines tourist travel intentions after the end of the pandemic. Study Design: Descriptive quantitative study. Place and Duration of Study: Research from February April 2020 in Jakarta, Indonesia. Methodology: This research is a descriptive study describing the current situation using a quantitative approach. Probability sampling with simple random sampling. Data collection using survey methods by distributing online questionnaires (Google Form) through WhatsApp broadcast messages and reach 128 respondents. Simple quantitative data analysis. Results: The travel preferences are (78%), or the majority of respondents said they would go back on tour. About (65%) will return to travel in the near term, which is 0-6 months after the pandemic is declared over, of the type of tourism desired by respondents is nature tourism by (66%), The majority of the desired tour duration is short-period, which is 1-4 days. The survey results show that travel intention mean value is higher than travel anxiety. Conclusion: Empirical predictions of tourist behavior after this pandemic ends. There are passion and optimism that tourism will recover faster because the majority of respondents in this study have planned when and where they will immediately after COVID-19 pandemic end with new travel preferences. Original Research Article Wachyuni and Kusumaningrum; JESBS, 33(4): 67-76, 2020; Article no.JESBS.57217 68


INTRODUCTION
Since March 11 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has established a global pandemic status for 2019 coronavirus disease  [1]. Global pandemic status means that the disease is widespread throughout the world; the entire world population wherever their country can potentially be infected. The latest WHO data on April 29 2020, positive cases of COVID-19 in the world reached 3,024,059 people with the death of 208,112 people spread in 213 countries, areas, or regions [2]. Showing a high spread considering the first case reported by WHO in December 2019 in China [3]. This situation makes the entire State limit all human movements in the State and outside the State to suppress the spread of infection.
Based on WHO recommendations to reduce the spread of infection, a physical distancing policy was established [4] by maintaining physical contact with others, avoiding gathering activities in one place. Some countries also implement a "lockdown" policy until a certain time limit, and some even do not set a time limit [5]. This policy means the closure of facilities and public areas that are not related to food and health, restricting access between regions or borders between countries, and terminating air routes in and out of the State. This travel restriction is also no exception for tourist trips.
This condition is similar when the outbreak of SARS in various countries that caused WHO to warn travel to Asia, coupled with massive media coverage of the spread of the disease. It caused three million people lost their jobs in the tourism industry, a $ 20 billion decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) occurred in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam, and the flow of tourism throughout Asia is reduced by 70% [6]. This situation will affect the intention to travel tourists.
Tourism activities are part of the Leisure economy, which is dominated by the millennial generation and the generation below that is Generation Z in the world [7], especially in Indonesia.
This generation has unique characteristics in the style of travel. Unpredictable, not responding to traditional marketing, relying heavily on technologies such as smart phones, social media, digital influencers that help them plan their trips. When this pandemic ends, it is not certain that everything will quickly return to normal, especially the tourism sector, which is currently in decline. Where maybe most people will pay more attention to recovery than thinking about travel. Nevertheless, this may differ in the thinking of this millennial generation.
There is always hope and trust for good things, as expressed by President Joko Widodo, that COVID-19 will be completed by the end of 2020 and Indonesian tourism will increase in 2021 so that the ranks of government are asked to increase the optimism of the tourism industry in Indonesia [8]. This optimism is in line with the hectic campaign of one of the popular Online Travel Agents (OTA) in Indonesian social media, namely the hashtag #NantiKita PegipegiLagi which gives hope for a tour by sharing stories of a dream vacation in the future [9]. Several other OTAs have also implemented a campaign to maintain the optimism of the tourism market while seeing trends in tourist attractions desired by tourists. Although, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), it is estimated that it will take 10-35 months for the tourism industry to return to normal [10]. It all depends on the mindset of tourists that determine the sustainability of the tourism industry going forward. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to identify future tourist behavior such as travel preferences, travel intention, and travel anxiety after the end of the pandemic. This is the first phase in tourist behavior, namely pre-trip. Pre-trip characteristics are stimulated and motivated to continue planning and organizing [11].
Several studies have examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in general, studies about to examine general perspectives regarding coronavirus outbreaks towards the future of travel and tourism in the world [12]. Studies the DSGE model as a tool to assess the impact of coronavirus outbreaks on tourism. It can be generalized for each epidemic [13]. There are studies the effect of COVID-19 on economic changes in the tourism industry for affected countries around the world [14]. Also, the studies about the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese tourism industry [15]. Based on some of these studies, there is no specialized observing Intention to travel future tourists on a tour after the pandemic ends [12,13,14,15].

Tourist Behaviour
Tourist behavior is important to know for the development of tourism businesses that discuss the choice of tourist destinations, evaluation of tourist destinations, and intentions of future tourist behavior [16]. The stages of tourist behavior are divided into five stages: 1) the tourist recognizes the need for tourism; 2) tourist collects information related to tourism; 3) tourist determines the tourist decision, which is followed by a tour; 4) the last stage evaluates the tourist trip that has been carried out [17].
The tourism industry needs to learn about tourist behavior in order to predict the sustainability of their businesses. Based on several studies suggesting tourist behavior in determining tourist destinations is influenced by several things. First, the specific factors of tourist decision making are age, gender, marital status, income, education, lifestyle, personal values, tourism motivation. Second, Specific factors for alternative tourist destinations such as attributes of tourist destinations that include tourist attractions, tourism resources, facilities, services, and accessibility of tourist destinations. Moreover, the third is situational factors that include weather conditions, cultural conditions of tourist destinations, and social conditions such as political conditions in the choice of tourist destinations [18].

Travel Intention
Intention to travel related to the desires or intentions of tourists in making a tour. There is research that states the main driving factors of travel intention are personal and information sources. Sources of information are stated to be more important than personal factors in the context of forming tourism destination perceptions [19]. Intention to travel is also influenced by risk factors that are felt by tourists and their perceptions of safety. Risk factors can create anxiety in prospective tourists about what might happen to them while traveling.
Tourist thinking is an important thing that needs to be understood by the tourism industry, which is currently devastated by this pandemic. Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is one of the ways that many previous studies have used in understanding the thoughts of tourists in traveling. This theory does not pay attention to the influence of past behavior that might influence intention and behavior [20]. Human behavior is influenced by intention based on three basic factors, namely, attitude toward behavior, subjective norms, and control behavior [21].

a. Attitude Towards Behavior
This is the attitude displayed from the results of a positive or negative assessment of behavior. Confidence in this behavior is determined by an individual's subjective assessment of the world around himself and the environment [22]. Attitudes towards behavior have a positive influence on one's intention to behave [23]. b. Subjective Norms Attitude towards behavior is a belief in the behavior to be carried out. The factor of reflection of social influence or subjective norms is a function of the individual's beliefs that are obtained from the views of others towards the object of attitudes associated with individuals (normative beliefs) [22]. c. Perceived Behavioral Control The third factor is perceived behavioral control, impulse, or resistance in behavior. An individual's perception of the ease or difficulty of doing something. The stronger a person's belief in the availability of resources and opportunities, the stronger the perception of control of the behavior [21].

Travel Anxiety
Travel anxiety about tourist self-anxiety about travel. Anxiety is a subjective feeling that occurs as a result of being exposed to an actual or potential risk; it is a feeling of nervousness, anxiety, stress, vulnerability, discomfort, disturbance, fear, or panic [23]. Anxiety increases, the perception of tourists about safety and intention to travel will decrease [24] Travel intentions are determined by the level of travel anxiety and the perceived level of security [25].
Regarding anxiety, the appearance of anxiety may be visible or may be hidden by physical or other psychological complaints. There are symptoms and signs of anxiety which are as follows [26]; a. Psychological aspects, such as apprehension (concern/ anxiety in the future). It signed by doubt, fear, panic, hypervigilance, irritability, fatigue, insomnia, derealization, and depersonalization. b. Somatic aspects are characterized by headaches, dizziness, palpitations, chest pain, stomach irritation, diarrhea, frequent urination, swelling in the esophagus, unstable blood pressure, tend to be restless, shortness of breath, paresthesias. c. Physical aspects such as diaphoresis (Excessive sweating), cold skin, damp, rapid arteries, and arrhythmias (loss of rhythm/irregular rhythm), the face becomes a red and pale face, hyperreflexia (excessive reflexes), chills, easily shocked.
Tourists can have a negative perception of a tourist destination if they feel their safety will be 'at risk' when visiting the destination [27]. This perception relates to information that tourisms get from various sources. Exposure to mass and social media has an impact on tourists' intentions to visit tourist destinations [28]. Hot topics in various online mass media today about the COVID-19 pandemic that has spread to almost all countries in the world. This news certainly will affect the thinking of tourists traveling. Therefore, we examine tourist travel intentions after the end of the pandemic. We hope this research explains the thoughts of tourists on future trips after the end of the pandemic.

METHODS
This research is a descriptive study describing the current situation using a quantitative approach, probability sampling with simple random sampling. Data collection using survey methods by distributing online questionnaires (Google formulir) through WhatsApp broadcast message. Because of the questionnaire was distributed online during stay at home in this pandemic, the population number in this research is unknown. Researchers set the sample in this study is expected with a minimum of 100 respondents. According to Roscoe (1975) in Sekaran [29], the sample size of more than 30 and less than 500 is appropriate for most studies. The questions in the questionnaire are based on indicators of human behavior that are influenced by attitudes towards behavior, subjective norms, and control of behavior as well as symptoms and signs of anxiety that can influence tourist decisions [21,26]. Data were collected during March -April 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in almost all countries in the world. Respondents who completed the questionnaire reach 128 of Indonesian respondents, and all data valid to be analyzed in the study.
The instrument of this study passed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire before being distributed. A Validity test was carried out on 30 respondents. The questionnaire was declared valid because the pearson product moment value was rcount > r table (.361). The r table value are obtained from pearson product moment with N=30 with 95% level of confidence. Likewise, because both variables shows the Cronbach alpha value> 0.60, the reliability test shows the question instrument used is reliable (Ghozali, 2007). The questionnaire was chosen because it is more appropriate than the interview during the COVID-19 quarantine, for this kind of survey, to get responses from a large number of respondents in a short amount of time. The questionnaire also allows respondents to answer at their own leisure or leisure time. The questionnaire contained statements that were rated on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from strongly disagree to strongly agree. Distributing questionnaires through internet assistance where this has become a common practice of some researchers in the field of hospitality and tourism that is using online surveys. This way is consistent with the statement of the online survey can be filled by a broader population of respondents efficiently [30]. Simply quantitative data analysis in this study, such as frequency distribution, percentage, and mean value.

Profile of survey respondents
In Table 1, the results of the respondent profile data collection can be seen. In this study, questionnaires were distributed via Google forms and sent via Whatsapp application broadcast messages. The number of respondents who filled in the form responses was 128 people. Respondents were dominated by women by (58%). The age range of respondents at most was 21-30 years at (41%), followed by 31-40 years at (34%). Respondents were dominated by millennial generations. Millennials are a person who was born in 1981-2000 [31]. The millennial generation is very active using the internet in their life [32]. Furthermore because of that, completing the online survey was very easy for them. The most recent education of respondents, the majority were dominated by bachelor degree graduates by (44%), postgraduate (29%), and high school equivalents by(27%). Most of the respondent's occupations were private employees by (45%) and followed by (27%) students. Using Google forms as research instruments is considered reliable because of all the questionnaires are filled in, and nothing is broken as if done offline.

Travel preferences
Traveling has become a necessity of society today. With the Corona Virus global pandemic, there is no human movement to travel. However, based on Table 2, the survey results of respondents in this study, as many as (78%) of respondents will travel after the pandemic ends, only (19%) who said they would not return to travel, and (3%) of them said it was possible. Researchers then gave further questions related to the selection of tourist destinations, the survey results showed (52%) of respondents wanted to visit domestic destinations, while only (3%) of respondents said they wanted to visit foreign destinations, and (52%) wanted to visit both. Then, if this pandemic ends and is declared safe, how long will the respondent return to travel, the survey results show that the majority will travel for 0-6 months after the pandemic has ended at (65%), (29%) of which stated 6-12 months, and only (63%) said more than one year. The types of tourism that became the respondents' choice were dominantly by nature tourism by (66%). The desired travel time of respondents more to travel with a short period of 1-4 days by (56%), 5-7 days by (33%), and only (11%) stated more than seven days. Destination aspects that were the priority of respondents were (73%) safe, (64%) clean, (62%) beautiful, (52%) cool, (44%) suave, and (42%) memorable. The majority of respondents had planned a tour after the pandemic ended, with (31%) strongly agreeing, (24%) agree, and only (23%) disagree-strongly disagree. The researcher then gives a sentimental statement about the choice of destination in relation to the number of patients affected, whether the respondent will visit a destination with the least history of corona affected patients. As many as (37%) said they disagree, (29%) said they agreed, (21%) said they strongly agreed.

Travel intention vs. travel anxiety
Travel Intention is divided into several indicators based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), including attitude, subjective norm, and control behavior. The calculation of the mean value of the indicator is based on a Likert scale of 1-5 (strongly disagree-strongly agree). Based on Table 3, it can be seen that the attitude of respondents towards travel after the pandemic ended was very positive; the majority of respondents agreed that traveling would be fun. In contrast, the majority of respondents disagreed that traveling after the pandemic corona ended was frightening. The next statement related to attitude is that the average respondent does not agree that the tour after the pandemic ends will be more troublesome than usual. In the subjective norm indicator, the average respondent states that recognizing that seeing people go back on a tour when the pandemic ends also fosters the spirit of the respondent. Likewise, when seeing closest friends planning a tour, the respondents agreed to participate in planning travel activities. The third indicator, namely control behavior, where the average respondent states agree that they will travel when and wherever they want.
Travel anxiety is the opposite of travel intention. Travel anxiety measures the respondent's concern in going on a tour after the pandemic corona is declared over. This statement is based on indicators of anxiety, namely somatic aspects, psychological aspects, and physical aspects. The average respondent stated disagree-less agree about discomfort and negative effects on the body after thinking of going on a tour after a pandemic. On the psychological aspect, the average respondent also disagrees with going on a tour after this pandemic ends, they become panic and scared. Likewise, with the physical aspect, the average respondent also disagrees that their anxiety affects the body's response, such as dryness and irregular heartbeat.

Travel preferences after COVID-19 pandemic
Coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic that has caused the mobility of  Travel Intention Score Average Attitude Taking a tour after the pandemic ends is fun 4.34 Taking a tour after the pandemic ends is not fun but scary 2.22 Going on a tour after a pandemic will be more troublesome than usual 3.05 Subjective Norm Seeing people go on a tour again, I became more excited to do the same 4.03 Seeing my closest friends planning my trip also planned it too 3.77 Control Behavior After this pandemic ends, I will go on a tour whenever I want 4.08 After this pandemic ends, I will travel wherever I want 4.12 Travel Anxiety Somatics Aspects I feel uncomfortable after thinking of going on a tour after a pandemic I feel that my body is not fit after planning tourism activities after the pandemic 2.59 2.21 Psychologist Aspects I was afraid to go on a tour even though this pandemic was over 2.35 I will panic when I travel after the COVID-19 pandemic ends 2.28 Physical Aspects I sweat after deciding to travel after a pandemic 2.08 I feel an irregular heartbeat when I think of going on a tour even though this pandemic is over 2.09 people in all countries to cease. Tourism is an industry that is very closely related to human movement, moving from one place to another. In this condition, tourism is the biggest sector affected. This research was made to provide an insight into how tourism in the future or in new normal conditions, will recover quickly after this pandemic ends. The results of the travel preferences is (78%) or the majority of respondents said they would go back on tour. Nearly (65%) will return to travel in the near term, which is 0-6 months after the pandemic is declared over, and only (6%) will be traveling more than 12 months after the pandemic ends. This proves that traveling has become everyone's needs. Many people want to travel [33]. Therefore, the tourism industry is important to know the tourists' interest in the type of tourism they want to visit after the COVID-19 pandemic ends.
In this study, researchers conducted a survey of the type of tourism desired by respondents. The survey results prove that tourist attraction towards the types of tourism is very diverse, but dominated by nature tourism by (66%). The beauty of nature is greatly missed during the quarantine of the territory by most people. This is related to respondents' intrinsic motivation for the need to get out of pressure during the quarantine. There are two motivations for tourists to travel, namely intrinsic and extrinsic motivation [34]. Intrinsic motivation is a motivation that is influenced by the need to escape from the pressures and conditions of life of tourists in their place of origin. Then the respondent's response in this statement can be generalized because this pandemic occurs in all countries. The majority of the desired tour duration is shortperiod, which is 1-4 days. This has become a new trend in new normal conditions. The three aspects of tourist destinations that most tourists expect are safe, clean, and beautiful. This represents the type of tourism that the majority of tourists want to visit, namely natural attractions. Safe and clean is the demand of tourists during the pandemic and afterward. However, this pandemic changes the perspective of tourists to be more aware of safety and cleanliness. The beauty aspect symbolizes the psychological needs of tourists who want to escape anxiety and tension during a pandemic. The desire of people to take a tour is seen from the answers of respondents amounting to (55%) who stated agree-strongly agree that they have planned where they will travel after the pandemic. Next, the researchers conducted a survey with sentimental questions related to the history of the number of patients infected with COVID-19 in the destination area. As many as (50%) of respondents agreed -strongly agreed that they chose tourist destination areas that has fewer COVID-19 patients. In line with tourist demand for the security aspects of the destination. That means, the big number of corona affected patients in the country will affect the number of tourist visits after the pandemic ends. Therefore, all the country should formulate strategies to enhance tourist's trust in security of the destination

Tourist behavior in new normal: travel intention or travel anxiety?
The impact of the global pandemic COVID-19 has lasted four months since it was first detected in Wuhan, China, in January 2020. This outbreak is very detrimental to the economic sector in all countries, as well as tourism. Sectors affected include destinations, transportation businesses, travel agents, and other supporting businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and so on. So keep in mind the behavior of tourists after this pandemic ends to provide an overview of tourism trends after this pandemic ends. In addition, it can be used as an estimate of the recovery time of the tourism sector after the pandemic ends, judging by trends in tourist behavior. Travel intention was analyzed using the TPB theory. The first indicator is an attitude toward behavior, where behavior refers to travel. The average respondent still shows a positive attitude towards traveling. Travel is still perceived as fun as before the pandemic existed. The subjective norm indicator also shows positive results with other people or close friends planning to travel strengthens the respondents' desire to do the same. Likewise, with the behavioral control that shows this pandemic does not change the desire of tourists to travel when and wherever they want. Therefore, the survey results from travel anxiety showed a low mean value. Anxiety is characterized by three aspects, namely somatic, psychological, and physical [26]. The survey results show that all three have a low mean value so that it can be interpreted that there is no excessive anxiety felt by respondents to travel after the pandemic ends. Tourism remains a necessity for many people.
However, based on the results of this study, the behavior of tourists after the pandemic has passed has new characteristics. Tourists will prefer natural attractions with a short travel time. Safety and cleanliness are the main factors that determine the selection of tourist destinations. Besides, a country's history with a large number of patients affected by corona might have a significant impact on the decline in tourists. This result gives new theory implications that health issues are one of the factors that influence destination selection. This research provides new implications that health issues are part of the situation in the process of determining destinations. After previously, the research found that the one of the factors that influence destination selection is the situation, including factors such as weather, cultural, and social situations [18].

CONCLUSION
The conclusions of this study include empirical predictions of tourist behavior after this pandemic ends. Based on the results of the study, there is passion and optimism that tourism will recover faster because the majority of respondents in this study have planned when and where they will travel, immediately (0-6) months after the COVID-19 pandemic ends. Nature tourism will be the most popular attraction with important aspects of safety, cleanliness, and beauty to fulfill tourist demand. The next trend is short-time period tourism, perhaps due to the anticipation of tourists for the COVID-19 pandemic or others. In addition, this study provides the view that basically traveling is a human need at this time.
Respondents showed a positive response to interest in traveling after a pandemic and showed a negative response to travel anxiety. Also, based on the research results, a significant number of corona affected patients in the country will affect the number of tourist visits. Therefore, after the pandemic ends, health issues to be considered as a factor that influence destination choice. The strategy need to be built to enhance the tourist's trust in the security and health of the destination. This study has limitations because it only shows the estimation of future tourist behavior based on the variables in this study but does not conduct further analysis related to the typology of tourists and tourist motivation after a pandemic. With this analysis, the research on future tourist behavior will be more in-depth. Also, another further research recommendation is formulate the destination development strategies to deal with new trends of tourist behavior after the pandemic ends.

DISCLAIMER
The products used for this research are commonly and predominantly use products in our area of research and country. There is absolutely no conflict of interest between the authors and producers of the products because we do not intend to use these products as an avenue for any litigation but for the advancement of knowledge. Also, the research was not funded by the producing company rather it was funded by personal efforts of the authors.