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Effect of Expectation and Disconfirmation on Postexposure Product Evaluations: A Causal Path Analysis

Oliver (1977) recently analyzed the direct effects of consumers' expectations and disconfirmation on posttrial evaluations of products using a hierarchical analysis of variance design. The research reported by Oliver is reevaluated and extended in this paper. A causal model is presented and path analysis used to assess both direct and indirect effects of consumers' expectations and a disconfirming experience on ratings of posttrial affect and intentions to purchase. Results suggest that (1) both expectations and disconfirmation influence postexposure ratings of affect with the experience of disconfirmation exerting the greater effect; (2) disconfirmation only indirectly influences intentions to purchase through its impact on affective evaluations; and, (3) expectations influence intentions to purchase in two different ways—both directly and indirectly through posttrial judgments of affect.