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No Confidence In Confidence Factors

The solution of most commercial rule-based expert systems consists of two components –the conclusion(s) reached and a calculated measure of belief in the conclusion(s), expressed as a single number. In non-deterministic domains, this number is often the most critical factor in analyzing the solution. However, as this paper reviews, a robust calculus for this number has yet to be documented, indicating the need for further research into belief expression, calculation, and result analysis.