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Preparing Australian dairy businesses for extreme and more variable climates - a research project integrating economic, biophysical and social aspects

The Australian dairy industry has put significant eort into exploring the potential impacts of climate change, however 
four key limitations remain: 
1. Climate change is only one of many drivers that influence the dairy business, other economic and social drivers must 
also be considered in any system analysis. 
2. Current (rather than future) farming systems have been etested’ using predicted future climates. 
3. Average predicted changes in temperature and rainfall is the focus of most research. The challenge to farming 
businesses is the impact of extremes, increased variability, the sequencing of climate events and the emergence of 
tipping points and/or unexpected vulnerabilities. 
4. Strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change have not been cross matched to understand the trade-os 
and impacts on other business risks within the whole farm system. 
To inform future investment it is critical that the Australian dairy industry fully explores the impacts of climate extremes 
and a more variable climate. Using three dairy businesses in differing regions, a range of farm development options 
will be explored - some options will push the boundaries of current farming practice, but all will retain economic 
and social reality. Biophysical and economic modelling, social research and farmer engagement will assist to identify 
farm management responses that make economic sense and build human and biophysical capability to manage a more 
challenging future. 
The project examines: 
1. Trade-os between profitability, risk, social impacts, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with realistic farm 
development options across farming systems. 
2. Potential impacts of climate variability and extreme events on economic, biophysical and social aspects of farm 
development options. 
3. Management options that provide the most effective adaptation and mitigation outcomes. 
4. Skills and industry support systems required to build capacity to respond, considering the reduced decision making 
capacity that accompanies increased uncertainty. 
Preliminary research demonstrates that increased periods of drought as well as more intense rainfall events will reduce 
median pasture production by up to 31% in Southern Australia, whereas more frequent exposure to heat waves will 
reduce pasture and milk production by as much as 28% and 20%, respectively. The combined effect of extended periods 
of drought, more intense rainfall events, longer heat waves and increased frequencies of hot days will reduce pasture 
production by up to 36%. Future work will examine how these impacts influence the temporal sequence of annual farm 
revenue and possible social consequences of risk perception and farm adaptation to extreme climatic events.