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Towards a model-based tool for evaluating population-level interventions against childhood obesity

The prevalence of obesity in the UK is mirroring trends in the USA. There is a need for research to provide public health agencies with advice as to the most effective means of securing behavioural change. The work reported here is in its very early stages. The history of obesity modelling using system dynamics is reviewed. A model of the energy intake and expenditure by a population of children aged 2-15 years is then described. Both of these two influencing factors on the caloric balance are modelled in some detail. A specimen output graph is included before an exposition of the intended use of the model. Mention is made of soft variables and the role of social marketing in effecting behavioural change.