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POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE QUEENSLAND SUGAR INDUSTRY AND THE CAPACITY FOR ADAPTATION

THIS REVIEW of current literature provides a qualitative assessment of the direct and indirect effects of a change in individual climate variables on the sugar industry in Queensland and, in particular, the potential effects of a change in yield as it cascades through the production chain. In general, Australia is predicted to be hotter and drier in the coming decades. On the eastern seaboard of Queensland, temperatures are predicted to reach 5.2 o C above 1990 levels by 2070, with warmer conditions being accompanied by more extremely hot days and fewer cold days. Rainfall patterns are likely to change throughout the cropping season. In general, most regions will see a decline in rainfall in autumn (MAM) and winter months (JJA), with the greatest decreases expected in the spring months (SON). More rainfall is projected for the summer months (DJF) in northern locations, but there is less certainty about the direction of change for more southerly sugargrowing regions. It is expected that lower levels of rainfall will be accompanied by more extreme events, with heavy rainfall, intermittent droughts and flooding. The drying associated with El Nino is likely to be enhanced. Global sea level is predicted to have risen by the end of the century to approximately 9 to 88 cm above 1990 levels. Tropical cyclone intensity is projected to increase. The generally warmer and drier climate will bring both negative and positive impacts. The net effect of these changes, together with their interactions, are as yet unknown. However, the greatest impacts of climate change are likely to be experienced at the level of primary production. The capacity for adaptation has been assessed by considering the current methods used to manage inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall in tropical and subtropical regions of Queensland. The progressive development of adaptation strategies will inevitably include both an extension and enhancement of existing practices, particularly in the areas of agronomic management and the use of decision-support and modelling software. Industry level adaptation, in the form of cultivar development and policy implementation, is also required. However, if the industry is to reduce the negative impacts of a change in climate, and capitalise on the positive effects, a whole-of-industry impact/adaptation action plan must be developed and implemented in the near future. Indeed, there can be few other cases where the saying, time and tide wait for no man, is more applicable.