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Reliability assessment and capacity credit of variable generation

A reliability assessment and capacity credit evaluation are presented in this study. The Probabilistic Production Costing Method (PPC) is used to assess the impact of variable generation (VG) on the overall reliability using metrics such as (1) Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and (2) Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) indices. We also define capacity credit of VG in probabilistic terms and provide a computational method based on the PPC method. The PPC method is based on probabilistic simulation of generation system using the Baleriaux, et al method. The effects of different penetrations of VG are modeled as net load applied to the dispatchable generating units. A test system with five substations and various penetrations of VG is used to demonstrate the method. This study aims to evaluate the generation adequacy in presence of different combinations of VG with maximum penetration of 30%. The results of different cases are presented and discussed in terms of reliability and cost. Moreover, the capacity credit of VG is examined when VG is compared with dispatchable generation with selected forced outage rate (FOR).