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Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business

Objectives:An overview of computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business in South Africa, with a detailed description of the AIDS Projection Model (APM) for companies, developed by the author, and suggestions for further work. Overview:Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business in South Africa requires modelling of the epidemic as a whole, and of its impact on a company. This paper gives an overview of epidemiological modelling, with an introduction to the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) model, the most widely used such model for South Africa. Methods:The APM produces projections of HIV prevalence, new infections, and AIDS mortality on a company, based on the anonymous HIV testing of company employees, and projections from the ASSA model. A smoothed statistical model of the prevalence test data is computed, and then the ASSA model projection for each category of employees is adjusted so that it matches the measured prevalence in the year of testing. Further work:Further techniques that could be developed are microsimulation (representing individuals in the computer), scenario planning for testing strategies, and models for the business environment, such as models of entire sectors, and mapping of HIV prevalence in time and space, based on workplace and community data.