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Analysis of the dynamics of the adoption of technologies in the value chain

In this article, a mathematical model that allows the evaluation of the dynamics of the technological diffusion process will be derived, following specific premises. Based on real options concepts, an optimization model to identify the optimal time for the adoption of a technology will be developed, considering financial costs and benefits. Some interesting insights could be verified. For instance, when the interest rate is very high and overcomes the rate of evolution of the cost savings generated by the technology, there are incentives for a fast adoption of technologies. Conversely, situations in which the interest rate is very low can drive to a delay in the incorporation of new technologies. Considering other elements of the chain, the company can also obtain gains from the postponement of investments if their suppliers and customers adopt complementary technologies in advance. Therefore, there is a gain in productivity that can be appropriated by the company without indeed investing immediately in a given technology.