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Scenario Modeling of the Development of Agricultural Production at the Level of Rural Territory of the Region

The article proves the necessity of using the methods of scenario modeling of the development of agricultural production in the design of an effective development strategy of rural territory in the region. It is shown that it is necessary to use a scenario approach that allows to substantiate alternative scenarios for the development of rural territories for the future when making models for the development of agricultural production. It is proved that the rational establishment of the optimal production structure of the crop and livestock sectors of agricultural organizations can significantly improve the economic efficiency of agricultural production. The algorithm for optimization of the industrial branch structure in the system «agricultural organization rural territory» is proposed, in which separate agricultural organizations are treated as independent market entities. The main results of optimization of the production structure of agricultural organizations on the example of rural territories of the Non-chernozem zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan are presented. It is shown that increasing of the efficiency of agricultural production is a key factor expressing the positive development of the social sphere and the infrastructure of rural areas. The forecast scenarios for the growth of production and consumption of agricultural food products are proposed, which allow to form various options for rational provision of food for the rural population. The development scenarios are based on model solutions, as well as forecasting of the possible volumes of production and sales of the main types of agricultural products by farms of all categories. Keywords—scenario modeling, optimization, agrarian production, development scenarios, rural territories.