TY - JOUR T1 - An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how multiple uncertainties about vaccine efficacy influence public health impact projections JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/082396 SP - 082396 AU - Perkins, T. Alex AU - Reiner, Robert C. AU - España, Guido AU - ten Bosch, Quirine A. AU - Verma, Amit AU - Liebman, Kelly A. AU - Paz-Soldan, Valerie A. AU - Elder, John P. AU - Morrison, Amy C. AU - Stoddard, Steven T. AU - Kitron, Uriel AU - Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. AU - Scott, Thomas W. AU - Smith, David L. Y1 - 2018/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/03/11/082396.abstract N2 - Given the limited effectiveness of strategies based solely on vector control to reduce dengue virus (DENV) transmission, it is expected that an effective vaccine could play a pivotal role in reducing the global disease burden of dengue. Of several dengue vaccines under development, Dengvaxia® from Sanofi Pasteur recently became the first to become licensed in select countries and to achieve WHO recommendation for use in certain settings, despite the fact that a number of uncertainties about its profile complicate projections of its public health impact. We used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission to perform simulations of the public health impact of dengue vaccines in light of two key uncertainties: (1) “statistical uncertainty” about the numerical value of the vaccine’s efficacy against disease, and (2) “biological uncertainty” about the extent to which its efficacy against disease derives from the amelioration of symptoms, blocking of DENV infection, or some combination thereof. Simulations of a generic dengue vaccine showed that the proportion of disease episodes averted following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year olds at 80% coverage was sensitive to both the numerical value of vaccine efficacy and to the extent to which efficacy derives from blocking of DENV infection. Simulations of a vaccine resembling Dengvaxia® took into account that vaccine trial results substantially reduced statistical uncertainty but did not address biological uncertainty, resulting in the proportion of disease episodes averted being more sensitive to biological uncertainty than to statistical uncertainty. Taken together, our results indicate limitations associated with the use of symptomatic disease as the primary endpoint of dengue vaccine trials and highlight the importance of considering multiple forms of uncertainty in projections of a vaccine’s public health impact. ER -