Brauchler: Democrats predicted a wave in Colorado but the tide barely dampened Republican’s socks on Election Day


Republicans headed into Election Day were told by Democrats, the media, and some of their own that the political sky was falling on them and it would be devastating. The once-in-a-century global pandemic, government-imposed economic stifling, post-George Floyd social upheaval, and a president many find personally distasteful would force a reckoning of historic proportions. The Republican Party was about to drown with Trump tied around its neck.

It did not happen.

Sure, in Colorado, the most productive, bi-partisan senator in the U.S. lost by a large margin to a candidate who … I just cannot go there … but you get the point. POTUS got crushed here. But beyond those two high-profile, Trump-related races, everything else remained remarkably status quo.

George Brauchler
George Brauchler

Outside of Colorado, the news for Republicans was overwhelmingly positive. The Blue Wave redux appears to have only dampened Republican socks.

The polls relied upon by the mainstream pundits said that the Democrats would take control of the U.S. Senate from Republicans, who held a 53-45 advantage (+2 Independents who caucus with the Dems) on election night. It was a lock. Then, the ballots were counted. It was devastating. For the Democrats. Presuming both Georgia seats stay Republican in January 2021 — a safe bet — GOP control of the Senate will have been whittled down all the way to…52-46 (+2).

Democrats entered election night with a 232-197 advantage in the House of Representatives. The consensus from mainstream talking heads was that Republicans, saddled with Trump’s claimed toxicity, would lose a bunch more seats. The Economist predicted twelve. Fivethirtyeight said seven. The opposite happened. While some races remain too close to call, it appears that the Dem’s 35 seat advantage may be reduced to as little as 14, the smallest majority in 18 years.

The GOP defied expectations by continuing to grow its tent. In the centenary year for women’s suffrage in America, thirteen non-incumbent women became newly elected House Republicans. One of them is Coloradan Lauren Boebert, a 33-year-old entrepreneur with four school-aged children, who defeated a 70-year-old, career academician and politician. Congresswoman-elect Boebert will be the first woman to represent our 3rd Congressional District, the largest district in Colorado and one of the largest in America.

The poor showing by Dems on election night has already led to infighting. Self-described “moderate” (what does that even mean anymore?) Dem members blame “progressives” for losses during a period they projected to expand their dominance, citing 130 primary battles and the negative impact at the polls of corrosive terms like “socialism” and “defund the police.” This debate is only going to get hotter over the next two years. Fire up the popcorn.

There are two big reasons to bet that the GOP will expand their control of the U.S. Senate and take back the House in two years: mid-term elections in 2022 and redistricting.

In the modern era, on average, the president’s party has suffered a loss of 30 seats in Congress. Losses have been significantly larger for first-term, mid-term Democrat presidents, such as LBJ (47 House, 4 Senate), Clinton (52 House, 2 Senate), and Obama (63 House, 6 Senate). The most obvious explanation is the over-reach government engages in when it is controlled by a single party (see Colorado). Here, Biden may actually benefit from the fact that he likely will be the first Democrat president since the late 1800s to enter office without full control of Congress. He can thank Mitch McConnell for that.

Redistricting will likely cost Democrats even more seats over the next decade. The 2020 Census will result in the redrawing of congressional and state legislative boundaries across the country, and by legislatures in 31 states (not Colorado). To influence that result, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spent $50 million (five times its 2010 amount) to flip thirteen targeted legislative chambers, such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Candidates and outside groups spent an estimated half of a billion dollars to flip red chambers to blue. The result: total failure. Not only did the GOP hold onto every chamber it had going into election night, it flipped both chambers in New Hampshire … and took back the governorship in Montana. Republicans will now draw lines for 175 congressional districts, only 47 for the Dems.

Even here, in Colorado, despite an enormous spending advantage, the Dems gained exactly zero seats in the state House and merely one seat in the state Senate. Republicans are poised to reclaim the upper chamber two years from now by winning only three newly redistricted seats during the mid-terms.

The election for the top of the ticket bore out that Colorado is blue, for now. But the 2022 election cycle has already begun and there is plenty to turn GOP frowns (and Dem majorities in Colorado) upside down.

— George Brauchler is a non-smoking suburban father of four public school-attending children who owns no cows, commercial property or robots, and who only gambles by driving on our roads. He currently serves as district attorney for the 18th Judicial District.