Suddenly, Sen. John Edwards has become the moneybags of the Democratic field. Edward’s $7.4 million shocker has impressed the media, put him firmly back into the race, and probably caused an epic story of regret to be poured into the ears of Bob Shrum’s bartender. Can a well-funded Edwards actually win? Perhaps.


As Al Gore discovered in 1988 being hung with the one-note “Southerner” moniker is pure trouble. It’s a process message and a bad one. Southernstates do not automatically vote for the southerner in the Democratic primary. Instead, Edwards needs what always works: a unique and powerful message for primary voters.

Moines is growing, Iowa’s many small towns and mid-sized cities are trapped in a painful decline. New Edwards media consultant David Axelrod understands this well from running Gov. Tom Vilsack’s campaigns, If Edwards can become the united voice of these worried Iowans, he’ll finish near the top of the caucus. Howard Dean has seized the liberal campus and activist crowd. Now, Gephardt, Edwards and Kerry are locked in a 3-way battle for Iowa’s older more regular Democratic voters.



Can Edwards pull all this off? Possibly. Money helps. But Edwards must overcome his weaknesses. Edwards’ current stump is too light and self indulgent, overplaying his biography as the People’s Lawyer. He sounds like he’s hustling a wide-eyed jury in a dubious lawsuit; you expect him to roll out a cub scout wearing a neck brace and sitting in a wheelchair at any moment. Edwards badly needs to atone for his mistakes earlier in the campaign and pass the ever-threatening lightweight test with far more policy prowess than he’s shown to date. If he’s smart, Edwards will fund a first-rate policy staff, put in serious personal briefing time and far “out paper” the other guys.

Finally, Edwards needs upward poll movement in Iowa to fend off home state critics and feed the press interest his fundraising success has ignited. My guess is he’ll start spending TV money soon in Iowa to frame his message quickly as the race starts up again after the Iraq war. Edwards has television skills and paid media is best way to score a surprise in the next Register Iowa Poll. Edwards’ early TV money allows him to mug Gephardt, forcing him to either match Edwards with money he doesn’t have, or give Edwards the early jump.
