

When the Little Green Men Invade Arizona

Could Russian-style "hybrid warfare" happen on American soil?

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The biggest military victories of the 21st century didn't look like people expected. Consider Russia's seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, which relied upon not fighter jets or advanced warships but crafty public relations, Special Forces, and a proxy army.

How did Russian President Vladimir Putin do it? He started with outreach to aggrieved Russian-speaking people in Crimea, posing them as victims of the crooked Ukrainian government. Russian state media and social media flooded the region and the world with propaganda. Putin then encouraged militias to form. They seized an airport, military bases, and government buildings. A parliamentary vote declared Crimea would secede from Ukraine. A referendum, days later, voted the region to become part of Russia.

It was a new kind of invasion, and it worked.

"Once the green men are there, a revolution happens quickly."

Russian armored personnel carriers reported to be heading to Simferopol of Crimea, Ukraine on February 28, 2014.
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Experts have begun to call these tactics "non-linear," "unconventional," or "information warfare." But the catchphrase getting the most traction is "hybrid war." We've seen Russia use it to grab land in Crimea, but make no mistake, this is not just an eastern European phenomenon. It could happen anywhere, including the United States.

To understand the confusing modern "hybrid" battlefield, it's helpful to place these new tactics on familiar territory. A great example of fiction informing fact is 1984's Red Dawn, in which writer/director John Milius made viewers understand the nature of guerrilla warfare via an alternate history in which Cuban and Soviet forces invaded the USA. The hypothetical scenario I'm laying out below should be considered with the same amount of skepticism—it's an extreme hypothetical, but it serves to explain the concept. All the details here are fictional, but the shadowy strategies of 21st century hybrid warfare are very real.

1) Find a Proxy

Let's say a Mexican cartel wanted to ensure its routes through a tightened U.S. border remain open. The cartel is well armed but can't out-muscle the United States military, so a direct invasion is out of the question. There is no political recourse since we're talking about an outlaw cartel and not a nation-state. But the cartel could wage a campaign using elements of hybrid warfare to gain an advantage.

It doesn't require a nation to wage a hybrid war, and criminal organizations will be drawn to hybrid warfare because it preserves anonymity. That means the first step is to find a sympathetic group on the ground to serve as a proxy. Without one, a group waging hybrid war can't take and seize terrain. (Turf isn't always the objective, but in our scenario it is.)

A member of Ukraine's disbanded elite Berkut riot police force aims his Klashnikov rifle at a checkpoint under a Russian national (L) and Russian naval (R) flags on a highway that connect Black Sea Crimea peninsula to mainland Ukraine near the city of Arm
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In Crimea, Ukrainians who spoke Russian served as the rallying point for an annexation. The United States has its own groups of people who feel trapped in the middle. Border tensions have been fueling discontent between the U.S. government and the Tohono O'odham nation, a Native American group whose land straddles the Mexican border. On one side, contraband smugglers make the area unstable and tempt locals to become outlaws. On the other side, fences, checkpoints, and other law enforcement efforts have disrupted the tribe's sovereignty and ability to do business.

Earlier this year, a European researcher named Anton Shekhovtsov outlined some of the conditions needed for a hybrid war to work. One condition was introducing forces that are culturally transparent, so they "so they do not stand out as 'aliens' and, thus, compromise the operation." In Crimea that meant ethnic Russians, but in the multicultural stewpot of the United States, language and culture mean less. What matters more is the ability to infiltrate the levers of control over, and that means owning property, sponsoring local candidates and tools of communication, which the cartel can do with its ample money and legitimate business connections.

Each of these elements could be used when it comes time to drive a wedge between the tribe and the United States government.

2) Win Phase Zero

Propaganda was around long before Sun Tzu wrote about the need to sap an enemy's morale to win wars. But modern media—fast moving, fractured, and pervasive—has made the home front a primary target in hybrid war.

After finishing the referendum in Crimea, Pro-Russian people make celebrations at Lenin Square in Simferepol, Ukraine.
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In the real world, the Tohono O'odham nation is already abuzz over plenty of real, legitimate concerns. Local blogs drive passions with reports of fences cutting through sacred lands, of businesses losing money because they can't freely move goods, of religious artifacts taken during Border Patrol arrests. In our fictional scenario, some creative rumor-mongering amplifies the anger.

Here's where the concept of cyberwar comes into sharp focus. Mexican cartels can hire freelance hackers to conduct industrial espionage operations that benefit cartel-friendly businesses by stealing details on bids or digging up trade secrets. Mercenary hackers from anywhere in the world can dig up dirt and blackmail moderate political voices. Websites with opposing views can be hacked and disrupted. Doctored videos and photos can spread discontent, with compromised local media eager to tout them. Politicians not used to hardball are quickly marginalized as the cartel threatens to kill them or their families.

The powder keg is ready for a spark.

This is the digital equivalent of using an artillery barrage to soften up the defender's ability to resist. "Weakening the enemy's will through nonmilitary measures will pay large dividends in the long-run," writes Nicholas Fedyk, project associate at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs in the Small War Journal.

Let's take this scenario full Crimea. Stoked by this propaganda, the tribe's confrontations and protests against the Border Patrol escalate as moderate politicians lose influence. Cartel-controlled media begin talk of a referendum on self-governance—a divorce from both the United States and Mexico.

The powder keg is ready for a spark. And that's when the little green men show up.

3) Introduce the Little Green Men

When the Russian special operations forces entered Crimea, they hid among local militia groups. They wore no insignia, but offered weapons, training, and secure communications equipment. These paramilitary units were dubbed "little green men." They were swift, effective and most of all, deniable—since they were not official Russian forces, Putin could have denied knowledge of their activities if necessary. As NATO General Philip Breedlove told a German publication in 2014: "Once the green men are there, a revolution happens quickly."

Little green men put real teeth behind the movement. In our scenario, the cartel backs Native American radical groups with experienced gunmen and former Mexican military officers who can backstop these proxies with sophisticated communication gear and heavy weapons. Some of the weapons are aimed at dissenters inside the tribe, while others threaten the Border Patrol and National Guard.

Squads of cartel killers assassinate some border patrol agents and claim credit on behalf of the tribe, putting both sides on edge and bringing U.S. military attention in the form of the National Guard. This stokes emotions on the eve of the referendum, perhaps swinging the vote toward independence. If not, the cartels rig it. The outcome is preordained either way.

4) Spark a Crisis and Take Control

When the vote of separation from the U.S. and Mexican governments succeeds, armed squads take over the highways and bridges. Border Patrol, local police, and National Guardsmen find their radios jammed, websites knocked out by DDoS attacks, and vital highways blocked by abandoned, booby-trapped trucks.

In a hybrid war, threats are even better than actions.

The cartel has invested and smuggled military grade equipment to its forces, and they wield shoulder-fired missiles that can shoot down helicopters. A traditional general, interested in causing enemy casualties, would keep this hardware a secret until it was time to surprise an enemy. But in a hybrid war, threats are even better than actions. This is the power of information—a single Youtube video can ground a fleet of the world's most advanced reconnaissance and attack helicopters.

The independent nation can now declare its right to self-defense in attacking any other government troops violating its turf. The Russian and Chinese, delighted with this knock to American hegemony, backs the claim at the United Nations.

People celebrate the first anniversary of the signing of the decree on the annexation of the Crimea by the Russian Federation, on March 18, 2015 in Sevastopol, Crimea.
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The cartel's revolution has succeeded. Like ISIS, it now owns territory and can impose governmental means of control, like laws, taxes, and jail sentences. It has transformed from a transnational crime syndicate to something like a nation. Smugglers now operate with impunity, weakly monitored by the cartel-beholden government. The puppet ruling party soon enacts a zero-extradition policy and few legal controls over its permissive banking system. It's like a little Cayman Islands right along the border. The Tohono O'odham—very of few of whom had to be complicit in this movement for it to succeed—finds themselves in a nation run by a criminal organization.

21st Century Total War

The tactics and techniques outlined in this hypothetical scenario may seem far-fetched, sure. But people in Crimea and Ukraine just watched more outlandish power grabs succeed even as NATO, Europe, and the United States looked on.

It was a new kind of invasion, and it worked.

The reality of hybrid warfare is a stark reminder to anyone who thinks the idea of total war has vanished in the glare of the information age. Instead of carpet bombing cities and launching land-grab invasions, the 21st century's version of total war is more subtle, effective, and exportable.

Don't believe it could happen here? Take a look at what's happening with claims of Russian hacking and its impact on the U.S. election. Consider the targets of Anna Chapman and other Russian spy rings in America. Ponder the industrial espionage aimed at defense firms and federal agencies. For all we know, the hybrid war against the United States may have already begun.

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