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Text: I'm Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.
Joining me on the call today is Mark McGivney, our CFO, and the CEOs of our businesses; John Doyle of Marsh; Peter Hearn of Guy Carpenter; Martine Ferland of Mercer and Scott McDonald of Oliver Wyman.
Marsh McLennan had an outstanding start to 2021.
Our first quarter results were excellent.
And we are well positioned for a very good year.
Even though the pandemic is ongoing, our underlying revenue growth of 6% is the highest in over 6 years and accelerated sequentially across every business.
We also grew adjusted earnings per share by 21% and generated significant margin expansion.
Our business has proven resilient throughout the pandemic and with the global economy now beginning to turn the corner, we saw an acceleration in our growth.
With 6% underlying growth to begin the year, we now expect full year 2021 underlying revenue growth to be at the high end of our 3% to 5% guidance range and possibly above.
As we look ahead, the outlook for the U.S. and many of the countries we operate in is encouraging.
However, many parts of the world continue to suffer with high levels of infection, and there is still a significant amount of uncertainty.
GDP in the U.S. was close to flat in the first quarter and strong levels of growth are expected starting in the second quarter due to a rebound in demand as the impact of vaccines takes hold along favorable economic comparisons to a year ago.
Meanwhile, in India, Brazil and many other parts of the world, case counts continue to rise and broad levels of vaccination remain a long way off.
Our proprietary Pandemic Navigator now forecast that the U.S. will achieve the herd immunity threshold by early to mid-summer, and we see a fairly similar timeline in the UK.
These milestones bring hope for reopening and economic growth, although it will vary by country.
We are also mindful that the risks exists and that there still are many unknowns such as variants of the virus, the efficacy of vaccines on the variants, the duration of immunity and vaccine hesitancy, but we are resilient and are confident we will be able to adapt to a wide range of scenarios, just as we have since the beginning of this crisis.
Our colleagues are our single largest competitive advantage.
We have world-class talent that has delivered for clients and one another throughout the crisis.
We continue to invest in hiring.
We are an employer of choice for smart, hard-working talented individuals and are adding to what is already the deepest talent pool in the industry.
We are also pressing ahead with acquisitions.
MMA made a significant acquisition on April 1st, PayneWest.
PayneWest was one of the largest independent agencies in the U.S. with more than 700 employees in 26 locations.
The acquisition adds nicely to our geographic footprint in the middle market space and brings the Northwest hub.
Overall, we are on track for a very good year.
Demand for our advice and solutions is strong.
The economy is recovering.
P&C insurance pricing remains firm, and we are benefiting from industry disruption.
Although the outlook remains uncertain, we are more optimistic than we were when we started the year and our efforts are focused on resurgence rather than recovery.
At the end of the first quarter, Marsh McLennan released our inaugural Environmental Social & Governance report.
Truly great companies must deliver both exceptional financial performance and be good employers and global citizens, and we are working on many fronts to advance the interests of all of our stakeholders.
We believe that starts with transparency.
Our report provides enhanced disclosure in a variety of ESG related areas from how we measure our own carbon footprint to how we use data to manage our workforce.
Our report highlights our commitment to a diverse and inclusive workplace.
In 2020, we launched our Leading the Change initiative to underscore the need to continuously nurture our inclusive culture and serve the fundamental principles of human dignity, equality, community and mutual respect.
We also strengthened our commitment to a better sustainable future through our pledge to be carbon-neutral this year along with the commitment to reduce our carbon emissions by 15% by 2025.
ESG issues are among the most critical challenges facing our clients today.
We are creating solutions for our clients related to complex business issues, such as climate change, diversity and inclusion, affordable healthcare, cyber security and responsible investing.
Marsh and Guy Carpenter are helping clients build resilience to flood risk and the documented increase in natural catastrophe perils witnessed in recent years.
Marsh and Guy Carpenter's experience in the alternative energy space has sparked innovation and been a growth driver.
Marsh designed in place the first of its kind policy for a European utility which set lower upfront premium payments based on the client's achievement of sustainability targets.
Oliver Wyman is actively advising its clients across sectors including banking, energy, industrials and transportation and managing the risks and capturing the opportunities associated with climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy to a new climate and sustainability practice.
Away from climate risk, Mercer is helping address the gender pay gap, diversity and inclusion in the workplace, the workforce of the future and consulting on new normal strategies in the wake of the pandemic.
Overall, we see significant growth potential in the areas of ESG as well as an opportunity to benefit our clients, colleagues and communities.
Let me spend a moment on current P&C insurance market conditions.
The first quarter marks the 14th consecutive quarter of rate increases in the commercial P&C insurance marketplace.
The Marsh Global Insurance Market Index showed price increases of 18% year-over-year versus 22% in the fourth quarter.
The pace of price increases moderated sequentially in the first quarter after accelerating for 11 straight quarters.
However, the 18% increase is still one of the highest since we started publishing the index in 2012.
Global property insurance was up 15% and global financial and professional lines were up 40% while global casualty rates were up 6% on average and U.S. workers compensation rates were modestly negative.
Keep in mind, our index skews to large account business.
However, U.S. small and middle market insurance pricing continues to rise as well, although the magnitude of price increases is less than for large complex accounts.
Turning to reinsurance, the Guy Carpenter's Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index increased just under 5% at the January 1st reinsurance renewals.
For the April 1st renewals, Japanese property catastrophe pricing increased for the third year in a row, but at a more moderate pace versus prior years.
Meanwhile, pricing in terms and conditions in the U.S. on April 1st business were largely a continuation of the January 1st pricing environment.
Capacity is more than adequate and demand remains high.
However, reinsurance capacity remains constrained on certain lines of business, most notably for cyber risk.
Overall price increases continue to persist in both the P&C insurance and reinsurance markets.
Low interest rates, elevated loss activity and continued uncertainty related to the pandemic present challenges for underwriters.
Times of uncertainty underscore the need for our advice and solutions, and we are working hard to help our clients navigate these challenges.
Now let me turn to our first quarter financial performance, which represents an excellent start to 2021.
We generated adjusted earnings per share of $1.99, which is up 21% versus a year ago, driven by a combination of strong growth and the continuation of the suppressed environment for travel and entertainment expenses as we continue to operate largely remotely.
Total revenue increased 9% versus a year ago, and rose 6% on an underlying basis.
Underlying revenue grew 7% in IRS, and 3% in consulting.
Marsh grew 8% in the quarter on an underlying basis, the highest quarterly underlying growth since 2003, and benefited from double-digit new business growth.
Guy Carpenter grew 7% on an underlying basis in the quarter.
Mercer underlying revenue was flat in the quarter, which showed sequential improvement from the fourth quarter.
Oliver Wyman underlying revenue grew by 11% as demand accelerated.
Overall, the first quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 20%, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 250 basis points year-over-year, reflecting positive operating leverage and favorable expense comparisons.
As we look out for the remainder of 2021, we are well positioned, given the strong demand for our advice and solutions, and our expectation for an improving economic backdrop.
As we mentioned, we now expect 2021 underlying revenue growth to be at the high end of our 3% to 5% range, and possibly above.
We also expect to generate margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.
As we mentioned last quarter, 2021 represents the 150th anniversary of Marsh McLennan.
As we look back on our storied history, once theme runs through it all.
This company steps up in the moments that matter, at times of war and peace, in eras of transcending innovation,in serving the public good.
In March, we changed our name from Marsh & McLennan Companies to Marsh McLennan.
It was a small, but important change that better reflects the way that our company has come together.
One company with 4 global businesses, united by a shared purpose to make a difference in the moments that matter.
The challenges before us all our vast.
It sower the possibilities, climate resilience, systemic risk, digital disruption, the protection gap, affordable healthcare, the future of work.
As we face this new world together, one thing will never change.
Marsh McLennan will be at our clients' side finding opportunity and navigating uncertainty in the areas of risk, strategy and people.
Our first quarter results were outstanding, and we are well-positioned for a very good 2021, despite the continued uncertainty associated with the pandemic.
Underlying growth accelerated across all of our businesses, and our margin expansion in earnings growth were impressive.
Consolidated revenue increased 9% in the first quarter to $5.1 billion, reflecting underlying growth of 6%.
Operating income and adjusted operating income were both approximately $1.4 billion.
Our adjusted operating margin increased 260 basis points to 29.6%.
GAAP earnings per share was $1.91, and adjusted earnings per share was $1.99, up 21% compared with the first quarter a year ago.
Looking at Risk & Insurance Services.
First quarter revenue was $3.2 billion, up 11% compared with a year ago, or 7% on an underlying basis.
It marks the highest level of underlying growth since 2012.
Adjusted operating income increased 17% to $1.1 billion, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 210 basis points to 36.6%.
At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2.3 billion, up 13% compared with a year ago, or 8% on an underlying basis.
This was Marsh's highest level of underlying growth in nearly 2 decades.
Growth in the quarter was broad based, and driven by double-digit new business growth, and solid retention, and was impressive considering Marsh's strong growth in the first quarter of last year.
The U.S. and Canada division delivered another exceptional quarter with underlying revenue growth of 9%.
This is the highest quarterly underlying growth U.S. and Canada has achieved since we began reporting their results.
And they have now averaged 6% underlying growth over the last 12 quarters.
In international, underlying growth was strong at 6%, marking the highest underlying growth since 2013.
EMEA was up 6% with strong results in each region, including in the UK.
Asia Pacific was up 8%, a strong rebound from the fourth quarter, and comes on top with 6% growth in the first quarter of 2020.
And Latin America grew 6% on an underlying basis, continuing to show sequential improvement.
Guy Carpenter's revenue was $895 million, up 8% or 7% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth in North America, EMEA, Global Specialties and Latin America treaty.
Guy Carpenter has now achieved 5% or higher underlying growth in 12 of the last 14 quarters.
In the Consulting segment, revenue in the quarter was $1.9 billion, up 6% from a year ago, or 3% on an underlying basis.
Adjusted operating income was $370 million, and the adjusted operating margin expanded by 330 basis points to 20.5%.
At Mercer, revenue in the quarter was $1.3 billion, which was flat on an underlying basis.
Mercer's top line performance improved each month in the first quarter, and we expect Mercer to return to underlying growth in the second quarter.
Wealth increased 1% on an underlying basis, reflecting strong growth in investment management, offset by a modest decline in defined benefits.
Our assets under delegated management grew to approximately $380 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 42% year-over-year, or 6% sequentially, benefiting from net new inflows and market gains.
Health underlying revenue was flat in the quarter, but faced a tough comparison to 8% growth in the first quarter of last year.
And Career grew 1% on an underlying basis, reflecting strong sequential improvement.
At Oliver Wyman, revenue in the quarter was $585 million, an increase of 11% on an underlying basis.
First quarter results were a continuation of the momentum we started to see materializing in the fourth quarter.
Adjusted corporate expense was $57 million in the quarter.
Foreign exchange added approximately $0.06 to our adjusted EPS.
Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a slight benefit in the second quarter with limited impact thereafter.
Our other net benefit credit was $71 million in the quarter.
For the full year 2021, we continue to expect our other net benefit credit will increase modestly year-over-year.
Investment income was $11 million in the first quarter on a GAAP basis, or $10 million on an adjusted basis, and mainly reflects gains in our private equity portfolio.
Interest expense in the first quarter was $118 million compared to $127 million in the first quarter of 2020, reflecting lower debt levels in the period.
Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $114 million of interest expense in the second quarter.
Our effective adjusted tax rate in the first quarter was 24.3% compared to 23.2% in the first quarter of last year.
Our tax rate benefited from favorable discrete items, the largest of which was the accounting for share-based compensation, similar to a year ago.
Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%.
When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative.
Based on the current environment.
, it is reasonable to assume a tax rate between 25% and 26% for 2021.
Our current outlook for 2021 assumes the global economy returns to growth in the second quarter, with a strong recovery in the U.S. Based on this outlook and our strong first quarter performance, we now expect underlying revenue growth to be at the high end of our 3% to 5% underlying growth guidance, and possibly above.
We currently expect we will deliver margin expansion for the full year.
But as you think through the quarterly cadence, keep in mind, we have tough expense comparison in the second and third quarters.
This view is based on our outlook today and it goes without saying that conditions could turn out materially different than our assumptions, which would affect our projection.
Turning to capital management and our balance sheet.
So far this year, we have completed our JLT-related deleveraging, enhanced our short-term liquidity flexibility and seen S&P, Moody's and Fitch restore our rating outlook to stable.
We ended the quarter with $11.3 billion of total debt, which was consistent with the level at December 31st.
In April, we repaid $500 million of senior notes scheduled to mature in July, taking advantage of a prepayment option.
This repayment brought our debt down to $10.8 billion and completed our planned deleveraging, marking an important milestone for us.
Our next scheduled debt maturity is in January 2022 when $500 million of senior notes will mature.
Earlier this month, we entered into a new 5-year revolving credit agreement.
Under this new facility, we increased the credit available to $2.8 billion from $1.8 billion.
In addition, we increased the size of our commercial paper program and now have capacity to issue $2 billion, up from $1.5 billion previously.
We view these changes as prudent steps that enhance our liquidity profile and provide additional flexibility.
In the first quarter, we resumed share repurchases, reflecting our strong financial position and outlook for cash generation.
We repurchased 1 million shares of our stock for $112 million.
We continue to expect to deploy approximately $3.5 billion of capital in 2021 across dividends, debt reduction, acquisitions and share repurchases.
The ultimate level of share repurchases will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops.
As we've consistently said, we favor attractive acquisitions over share repurchases as we view high quality acquisitions is the better value creator for shareholders and the company over the long term.
Now that our deleveraging is behind us, we are back to our normal focus for capital management.
Our capital management strategy reflects balance and supports our consistent focus on delivering solid performance in the near term while investing for sustained growth over the long term.
For the capital we generate and target to deploy, we prioritize reinvestment in the business, both through organic investments and acquisitions.
However, we also recognize that returning capital to shareholders generate meaningful returns for investors over time, and each year we target raising our dividend and reducing our share count.
Our cash position at the end of the first quarter was $1.1 billion.
Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $392 million and included $237 million for dividends, $112 million for share repurchases and $43 million for acquisitions.
Overall, we had an outstanding first quarter positioning us well to deliver strong growth in both underlying revenue and adjusted earnings in 2021.
Operator, we are ready to begin Q&A.

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q1 adjusted earnings per share $1.99.
q1 gaap earnings per share $1.91.
q1 revenue rose 9 percent to $5.1 billion.

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