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Text: Revenue and adjusted EBITDA in Q2 increased 17.5% and 23%, respectively, over the prior year period, primarily as a result of continued improvement in solid waste pricing volume growth and strength in recovered commodity values.
These trends drove year-to-date adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 110 basis points and adjusted free cash flow of over $585 million, up 18.5% year-over-year, and given expected continuing momentum and margin expansion from these trends position us to raise our full year outlook for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted free cash flow.
2021 also has the potential to be another outsized year of acquisition activity.
Year-to-date, we have signed or closed 14 acquisitions with total annualized revenue of approximately $115 million, including $75 million of franchise operations in California, Nevada and Oregon expected to close later this year.
We continue to see record amounts of seller interest driving elevated acquisition dialogue, and as communicated throughout the year, expect closings related to most of this activity to be more weighted to the second half of the year, which will provide further upside to our increased outlook for the year and strong rollover growth into 2022.
On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow.
Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations.
Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.
In the second quarter, solid waste price plus volume growth of 11.4% exceeded our expectations by almost 150 basis points, primarily as a result of higher-than-expected volumes as the recovery trends that began in Q1 continued throughout the quarter, with landfill tons and roll-off pulls returning to levels about in line with or above prepandemic levels.
Total price of 4.9%, up 70 basis points sequentially, was above our outlook on higher core pricing of 4.7%, once again reflecting the strength of pricing retention we noted in Q1, plus about 20 basis points in fuel and material surcharges.
Our Q2 pricing ranged from 2.6% in our mostly exclusive Western region to a range of about 4.5% to 7% in our more competitive regions.
Looking ahead, we are positioned for higher sequential pricing growth during the second half of the year as a result of incremental price increases we have already put in place to offset certain cost pressures.
Reported volume growth of 6.5% in Q2 reflected sequential improvement of approximately 1,000 basis points from Q1 and was led by those regions where markets were hardest hit during the pandemic including the Northeast U.S. and Canada.
All regions showed sequential improvement from Q1 and all reported positive volumes in Q2.
Volumes range from about 4% in our Central region, where comparisons to the prior year were tougher as many markets were relatively less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, to almost 10.5% in Canada, one of our most impacted regions where the volume recovery have been remarkably strong, arguably outpacing the reopening activity particularly when considering that many restrictions in Canada extended through Q2 of this year.
Also noteworthy is our Western region, where volumes led our other regions going into the pandemic and continue to be the strongest in the U.S. at about 8.5% in Q2.
Looking at year-over-year results in the second quarter on a same-store basis, all lines of business increased by double digits Commercial collection revenue was up 16% year-over-year.
Roll-off pulls increased by over 11% year-over-year, led by Canada, up almost 20% and back to above pre-COVID-19 levels.
In the U.S., pulls were up about 10%, and all regions showed year-over-year improvement, most notably in our more impacted markets, including in the Northeast.
Landfill tons were up 17% year-over-year on MSW tons up 11%, C&D tons up 20% and special waste tons up 33%.
As a result, landfill tons have returned to above pre-pandemic levels in all of our regions, except the Eastern region, which was slightly below prior levels as a result of the delayed reopening activity in markets in the Northeast.
Looking more closely at results.
As noted, all waste types were up double-digit percentages year-over-year.
However, the outsized amount of special waste activity was particularly noteworthy as Q2 activity propelled tons back to 13% above pre-pandemic levels with all regions up year-over-year, perhaps due to a little pull forward from Q3.
Looking at Q2 revenues from recovery commodities, that is recycled commodities, landfill gas and renewable energy credits, or RINs.
Excluding acquisitions, collectively, they were up about 95% year-over-year resulting in a combined margin tailwind of about 130 basis points, 90 basis points of which was from recycling and 40 basis points from landfill gas and RINs.
Recycling revenue increases were driven by both higher commodity values, including old corrugated containers or OCC, up 25%; and plastics and metals, both up over 100%.
Higher volumes also contributed year-over-year, again, reflecting the pandemic impact.
Prices for OCC averaged about $135 per ton in Q2 and our RIN pricing averaged about $2.72.
And finally, on to E&P waste activity.
We reported $31.2 million of E&P waste revenue in the second quarter, up 26% sequentially from Q1, reflecting increased activity across multiple basins.
Looking at acquisition activity.
As noted earlier, we've already signed or closed 14 acquisitions with annualized revenue of approximately $115 million, approaching what we would consider an average amount of activity for the full year.
These transactions include multiple West Coast franchise markets, which are core to our strategy and provide unique opportunities to expand our exclusive contract portfolio.
Moreover, our pipeline still reflects record levels of seller interest driving the potential for outsized activity in 2021, primarily given tax-related considerations.
That said, we continue to be selective and disciplined in our approach to acquisitions as we recognize the importance of value creation for our shareholders as well as market selection and asset positioning.
Now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the second quarter and our increased outlook for the year and to provide a detailed outlook for Q3.
I will then wrap up before heading into Q&A.
In the second quarter, revenue was $1.534 billion, about $44 million above our outlook due primarily to higher-than-expected solid waste growth and recovered commodity values.
Revenue on a reported basis was up $228 million or 17.5% year-over-year, including acquisitions completed since the year ago period which contributed about $47.6 million of revenue in the quarter or about $44.1 million net of divestitures.
Commodity-driven impacts account for about 100 basis points of margin expansion, net of a 30 basis point impact from higher fuel on diesel rates up almost 20% year-over-year.
Ex fuel solid waste collection transfer and disposal margins expanded by 50 basis points as we more than offset a 60 basis points increase in incentive compensation costs, 50 basis points from higher medical and 50 basis points from increased discretionary expenses.
And finally, acquisitions completed since the year ago period accounted for about 10 basis points of margin dilution.
Regarding discretionary expenses, we've begun the process of returning to a more normalized operating environment, including in-person training, meetings and other activities we consider integral to sustaining our culture and expanding our bench strength ahead of future growth.
Given the challenging labor environment, we have also proactively implemented supplemental wage adjustments in many markets as we anticipate or combat labor constraints.
These purposeful wage and discretionary cost additions, along with higher incentives, medical and other costs resulting from more typical activity levels, largely replaced last year's COVID-19-related frontline support costs, the majority of which did not repeat this year.
As noted earlier, we've already implemented incremental price increases to address these higher costs, resulting in full year 2021 price of approximately 5%, up from 4% in our original outlook.
We delivered adjusted free cash flow up 18.5% year-over-year through Q2 at $585 million or 20% of revenue, putting us on track to achieve our revised adjusted free cash flow outlook of approximately $1 billion.
I will now review our outlook for the third quarter 2021 and our updated outlook for the full year.
Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada.
We encourage investors to review these factors carefully.
Our outlook assumes no significant change in underlying economic trends, including as a result of or related to impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic or the delta variant of the coronavirus.
It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period.
Looking first at Q3.
Revenue in Q3 is estimated to be approximately $1.56 billion.
We expect solid waste price plus volume growth of about 7% in Q3 with pricing of about 5%.
Recovered commodity values and E&P waste revenue are expected to remain in line with current levels, with RINs generally in line with Q2 levels and OCC trending slightly higher.
Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 is estimated to be approximately $495 million or 31.7% of revenue, up 60 basis points year-over-year and up sequentially from Q2.
Depreciation and amortization expense for the third quarter is estimated to be about 13.3% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $33.8 million or a rounded $0.10 per diluted share net of taxes.
Interest expense, net of interest income, is estimated at approximately $40 million.
And finally, our effective tax rate in Q3 is estimated to be about 21.5%, subject to some variability.
Revenue for 2021 is now estimated to be approximately $5.975 billion or $175 million above our initial outlook, with the primary drivers being an additional 150 basis points of solid waste price plus volume growth and higher recovered commodity values as compared to our initial outlook, plus $25 million from acquisitions completed year-to-date.
Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now estimated to be approximately $1.875 billion or about 31.4% of revenue and up about $75 million over our initial outlook.
Moreover, full year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is 40 basis points above our initial outlook, up 90 basis points year-over-year.
At 31.4%, our adjusted EBITDA margin outlook reflects continued year-over-year margin expansion in the second half of 2021 in spite of wage and inflationary pressures and tougher year-over-year comparisons.
Adjusted free cash flow in 2021 is now expected to be approximately $1 billion or over 53% of EBITDA and up $15 million from our initial outlook despite capex up $50 million from our original outlook.
Last week, we closed our new $2.5 billion credit facility, which increased borrowing capacity by almost $300 million, reduced borrowing spreads and enhanced flexibility for continued growth.
Our balance sheet strength, together with this increased capacity, positions us for potential above-average acquisition activity and an increasing return of capital to shareholders.
We have already returned over $400 million to shareholders in 2021 through share repurchases and dividends.
And we are in the process of renewing our normal course issuer bid, authorizing the repurchase of up to 5% of our outstanding shares per annum.
We will continue to approach share repurchases opportunistically and anticipate announcing another double-digit percentage per share increase in our cash dividend in October.
Again, broad-based strength continues to drive results ahead of expectations as we benefit from reopening activity in a supportive macro environment, including tailwinds from recovered commodity values.
We've once again demonstrated the importance of being selective about markets and intentional about driving results.
Quality of revenue and comparative price retention across markets matter.
We're extremely pleased to be in a position to raise our outlook for the full year.
We are set up for continuing margin expansion through the second half of 2021 as proactive unbudgeted price increases offset wage and inflationary pressures.
We are on track for adjusted free cash flow of approximately $1 billion and adjusted EBITDA margins back above pre-COVID-19 levels.
Finally, we expect to announce another double-digit percentage increase in our regular quarterly cash dividend in October and remain well positioned for potential significant increase in acquisition outlays to drive further growth in 2021 and beyond.
We appreciate your time today.

user
qtrly revenue of $1.534 billion, up 17.5% year over year.
waste connections inc - provides full year 2021 outlook for revenue of approximately $5.975 billion.
q2 revenue rose 17.5 percent to $1.534 billion.
sees fy revenue is estimated to be about $5.975 billion.
compname says for q3 of year, estimate revenue to be about $1.56 bln.
for q3, estimate expect solid waste price plus volume growth to be about 7%, with price growth of about 5%.

assistant