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Text: These statements are based on management's expectations, plans, and estimates of our prospects.
Today's statements may be time sensitive and accurate only as of today's date, Thursday, February 13, 2020.
We assume no obligation to update our statements or the other information we provide.
Also on the call today are Jojo Yap, our Chief Investment Officer; Peter Schultz, Executive Vice President; Chris Schneider, Senior Vice President of Operations; and Bob Walter, Senior Vice President of Capital Markets and Asset Management.
We finished 2019 with an excellent fourth quarter to cap up another successful year.
For 2020, we expect more of the same, leveraging our platform to generate more cash flow growth and value creation.
Occupancy at year end was a very strong 97.6% and full year cash rental rate growth was 13.9%, a Company record.
Both of these metrics reflect continued strong tenant demand for logistics space, and the great work of our leasing and operations professionals.
We developed a number of high quality facilities at strong margins, and replenished our pipeline with the acquisition of several exciting new sites and target markets, particularly Miami.
In addition, we continue to shape our portfolio to drive long-term growth as we further increase our capital allocation to higher barrier markets.
Before we get into the specifics of the quarter, let me provide you with a quick overview of the national industrial market.
According to CBRE Econometric Advisors, new supply for 2019 was 224 million square feet compared to net absorption of 183 million.
This marks the first time since 2009 that new supply exceeded net absorption.
Despite this, our outlook for 2020 is similar to that of 2019.
Vacancies remain low and excess new construction continues to be concentrated primarily in larger format buildings in certain sub-markets, most notably Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston.
We continue to see new tenant requirements from a range of industries across all of our markets.
So the overall environment remains very favorable for strong demand and rent growth.
That's also the case for our portfolio.
We've signed leases for approximately 60% of our 2020 rollovers at a cash rental rate increase of more than 9%.
Included in these results is the long-term renewal of our largest rollover, a 675,000 square foot single tenant building in Central Pennsylvania.
Our expirations for the balance of 2020 are fairly granular.
For the full year, we expect cash rental rate growth of approximately 10% to 14% on our new and renewal leasing.
Turning now to a few highlights from our development program.
In the fourth quarter, we placed in-service seven developments totaling 2.1 million square feet with a total investment of $165 million.
Included in this total is our 556,000 square footer at First Aurora Commerce Center in Denver.
As evidence of the strength of this market, we signed a long-term lease for 100% of the space, which commenced shortly after completion of construction.
In total for 2019, we placed in service 13 buildings totaling 4.4 million square feet with an estimated investment of $325 million.
These assets are 91% leased with an estimated cash yield of 6.7%.
This represents an expected margin of 42% to 52%.
At the mid-point, that would translate to a little over $1 per share in NAV accretion.
At year end, our pipeline of completed developments in lease-up and under construction totaled 3 million square feet with a total estimated investment of $277 million and a projected cash yield of 6.9%.
They are 36% leased and have an expected margin of approximately 40% to 50%.
This pipeline includes a few new starts in the fourth quarter on both Coast and in Dallas.
Starting on the West Coast, First Redwood Logistics Center II is a 72,000 square foot building in the Inland Empire West, with an estimated total investment of $12.6 million.
Completion is set for the third quarter with a cash yield of 5.2%.
In Los Angeles, one mile north of the Port of Long Beach, we acquired a 1.8 acre site for $6 million.
It's leased as a surface lot with an in-place yield of 5.4%.
In Northwest Dallas, we broke ground on our 435,000 square foot multi-tenant building at Phase 2 of our First Park 121 with an estimated investment of $31.2 million and a targeted cash yield of 6.7%.
This building is 77% pre-leased.
We expect to complete this development in Q3.
Moving across the country to South Florida, we've been very active in expanding our development pipeline there.
We broke ground on our First Cypress Creek Commerce Center, a three building park totaling 374,000 square feet on land for which we have a 50-year ground lease.
Our estimated total investment for the building is $35.6 million, with a targeted cash yield of 7.1% and completion is slated for Q4.
We also acquired seven acres of land and broke ground on First Sawgrass Commerce Center, a 104,000 square footer in Broward County, estimated investment is $15.3 million, with a targeted yield of 5.8%, completion is expected in Q3.
On our last call, we discussed our 19.6 acre covered land investment in South Florida for $19.8 million.
Recall this site has three below market ground leases that are currently yielding 3.5%.
We also added another 9 acre site in the Miami market for $8.6 million on which we can develop 131,000 square feet.
Thus far, in the first quarter of 2020, we're very pleased to announce the acquisition of a new land site we call First Park Miami.
We acquired 63 developable acres in Medley, a great infill location where land is difficult to come by.
Our acquisition price was $48.9 million and we can build 1.2 million square feet in total on the site.
We will begin the first phase of development this summer, with three multi-tenant buildings totaling approximately 600,000 square feet.
Total estimated investment for these three buildings is approximately $90 million reflecting land, pre-development and construction costs.
Our target stabilized yield is in the mid-5s.
For the year, building acquisitions totaled 542,000 square feet for $67 million with an expected stabilized cap rate of 5.4%.
So far in the first quarter of 2020, we've acquired our first building in the East Bay market of Northern California.
The property is a 23,000 square footer in the I-880 Hayward submarket, purchase price was $4.9 million, and our expected yield is 5.3%.
We completed $155 million of sales in the fourth quarter, comprising 3.6 million square feet and one land parcel.
These sales were consistent with our ongoing portfolio management efforts that support better long-term cash flow growth.
With these sales, our market footprint has significantly changed.
The largest portion of these dispositions came from the sale of substantially all of our Indianapolis portfolio which totaled $98 million and 2.7 million square feet.
Other notable sales included two buildings in St. Louis totaling $13 million and 245,000 square feet.
With just one building remaining in each of these markets, we've moved those properties to the other category in the portfolio reporting section of our supplemental.
Thus far, in the first quarter, we sold 226,000 square feet in Tampa for $26.5 million.
With this sale, we've now effectively exited the Tampa market with just leased land remaining there.
Our efforts in Florida are now focused in the South Florida and Orlando markets.
Given the leasing progress and rollover status of our portfolios in each of these three markets, we felt the time was right to further simplify our market exposure and redeploy these proceeds into higher rental growth opportunities.
For 2019, dispositions totaled $261 million and comprised 5.2 million square feet and four land parcels.
These figures exclude the sale on Phoenix recognized for accounting purposes in the third quarter of 2019 that is scheduled to close in the third quarter.
For 2020, our guidance for sales is $125 million to $175 million.
As is typical, we expect the majority of 2020 sales to be back-end loaded.
Note this guidance does not include the sale of the Phoenix asset I just mentioned.
Based on our strong 2019 performance and outlook, which Scott will discuss shortly, our board of directors declared a dividend of $0.25 per share for the first quarter of 2020.
This is $1 per share annualized, which equates to an 8.7% increase from 2019.
This dividend level represents a payout ratio of approximately 64% of our anticipated AFFO for 2020 as defined in our supplemental.
Another note on AFFO.
At our last Investor Day in November of 2017, we discussed our opportunity to achieve adjusted funds from operations of $200 million in 2020.
If we achieve the mid-point of our overall guidance for the year, we will deliver on that opportunity.
This would represent compound annual growth of 9% over the period.
In the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share was $0.76 versus $0.40 one year ago.
And for the full year, diluted earnings per share was $1.88 versus $1.31 for the prior year.
NAREIT funds from operations were $0.45 per fully diluted share compared to $0.42 per share in 4Q 2018.
Excluding a $0.01 of income related to insurance settlements for damaged properties, 4Q 2018 FFO was $0.41 per share.
For the full year, NAREIT FFO per share was $1.74 versus $1.60 in 2018.
As Peter noted, occupancy was 97.6% down 10 basis points for the prior quarter.
In the fourth quarter, we commenced approximately 4.1 million square feet of leases, 757,000 square feet were new, 1.3 million were renewals, and 2.1 million square feet were for developments in acquisitions with lease-up.
Tenant retention by square footage was 81.4%.
Same-store NOI growth on a cash basis excluding termination fees was 2.1% and for the full year 2019, cash same-store growth before lease termination fees was 3.1%.
Cash rental rates were up 9.7% overall, with renewals up 8.2% and new leasing 12.4%.
On a straight line basis, overall rental rates were up 20.4% with renewals increasing 18.5% and new leasing up 23.8%.
For the year, cash rental rates were up 13.9% overall which is a Company record and on a straight line basis, they were up 26%.
Moving on to a few balance sheet metrics.
At the end of 4Q, our net debt plus preferred stocks to adjusted EBITDA is 4.6 times and at December 31st, the weighted average maturity of our unsecured notes, term loans, and secured financings was 5.8 years with a weighted average interest rate of 3.9%.
These figures exclude our credit facility.
Our NAREIT FFO guidance is $1.77 to $1.87 per share with a mid-point of $1.82.
Excluding a $0.01 per share of costs related to severance from the closure of our Indianapolis office and costs related to projected vestings of equity awards for retirement eligible employees, FFO guidance is $1.78 to $1.88 per share with a mid-point of $1.83.
The key assumptions for guidance are as follows.
Quarter-end average in-service occupancy for the year of 97% to 98%, we anticipate first quarter occupancy will have a typical seasonal dip, which could be as much as 75 basis points to 100 basis points.
Our bad debt expense assumption for 2020 is $2 million consistent with last year's assumption.
One of our largest tenants, Pier 1 Imports has been in the news lately.
Our guidance assumes that Pier 1 will continue to occupy our 644,000 square foot facility in Baltimore for the entire year, as this facility is a critical part of their supply chain and I note that they are current on their rent.
Also for your information, the expected FFO from the lease to Pier 1 for the period of March through year end is approximately $2.5 million.
Same-store NOI growth on a cash basis before termination fees is expected to be 4% to 5.5%.
And our cash, same-store metric for the first two quarters is expected to be higher than the remainder of the year due to the benefit of burn off free rent related to developments.
Our G&A guidance range is $31 million to $32 million which excludes a $0.01 per share of severance costs from the closure of our Indianapolis office and costs related to projected vesting of equity awards for retirement eligible employees.
Please also note that besides the normal annual increase in expenses, G&A also includes incremental costs related to a new compensation plan, the compensation committee put in place in 2020, which is more tilted toward total stock return than the prior-plan.
Guidance also includes the anticipated 2020 costs related to our completed and under construction developments at December 31st, plus the planned start of First Park Miami.
In total, for the full year of 2020, we expect to capitalize about $0.03 per share of interest related to our developments.
The impact of any future gains related to the final settlement, two insurance claims from damaged properties and guidance also excludes the potential issuance of equity.
We're excited about our new developments through which we can serve the logistics needs of our customers while expanding our portfolio in key markets and creating value for shareholders.

user
q4 earnings per share $0.76.
q4 ffo per share $0.45.
cash rental rates were up 9.7% in 4q19 and 13.9% in 2019.
cash same store noi grew 2.1% in 4q19 and 3.1% for year.
first industrial realty trust - excluding approximately $0.01 per share/unit income related to insurance settlements, q4 2018 ffo per share was $0.41.
expect to deliver additional growth in rental rates and cash flow in 2020.
sees 2020 ffo (nareit definition) earnings per share $1.77- $1.87.

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