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Text: Jim Hatfield, Chief Administrative Officer; Daniel Froetscher, APS's President and COO; and Barbara Lockwood, Senior Vice President, Public Policy, are also here with us.
First, I need to cover a few details with you.
Note that the slides contain reconciliations of certain non-GAAP financial information.
It will also be available by telephone through May 15.
Before I get started, let me say, I hope everyone is doing well.
This is certainly an unexpected way to start our year, but the last several weeks have only reaffirmed to me that our company and our people are resilient, agile and prepared to handle whatever comes our way.
We recognize the realities of COVID-19 and the challenges that people are facing, and we remain committed, first and foremost, to safely delivering reliable power to Arizona, building shareholder value by ensuring customer value.
In March, we made the decision to deploy as much of our workforce as possible to work from home and to change our work practices for those essential workers needed to keep the lights on for our customers and to prepare for the Arizona summer.
The transition from normal course of business to social distancing and revised safety procedures was seamless from our reliability standpoint and for our customers.
While our processes have changed, our priorities have not.
From a financial perspective, our strengths lie on a strong balance sheet, good credit rating and sufficient liquidity.
We can and will weather the storm.
We recognize that in order to serve both our customers and our shareholders, it is important to maintain our financial health.
Financial stability is a key driver in our decision-making, and it's essential to support our long-term goals.
Operationally, the rigor of our preparation and the strength of our team position us well to navigate the challenges presented by COVID-19.
Our pandemic plan was established, tested, refined and rehearsed before any of the COVID-19 impact began to hit us.
As I mentioned earlier, we've transitioned as many employees as possible to working from home.
I'll note, that includes over 140 call center associates who we moved very quickly to seamlessly continue to provide customer service from their homes, and that includes the oversight folks as well, an incredible job by the IT group there, as well as our field employees who continue to prepare for our peak summer season.
All necessary summer preparedness work, including vegetation management and planned outages at our power plants, have continued.
In an effort to minimize the duration of those outages and the number of people required to be physically present, we prioritized essential work and deferred some discretionary maintenance until later in the year.
I'm pleased to share that we completed the Palo Verde Unit two refueling outage earlier this week, ensuring that this key resource will be available to serve customers this summer.
The refueling outage had a reduced scope to allow the completion of the essential work, with 40% less contractors than normal.
In addition, we've deferred nonessential transmission and distribution work that would require more than a two hour planned outage to our residential customers during this time.
We are grateful for the support we've received from so many who've helped our employees stay safe, including Armored Outdoor Gear, one of our commercial customers in Flagstaff.
We were able to quickly secure 3,000 masks for APS, including an expedited quantity of 300 for Palo Verde employees at a time when masks were harder to come by.
It was really a win-win situation.
We were able to keep our employees safe and, at the same time, support our local economy.
Based on what we've seen so far in energy usage and customer load growth, and Ted will talk more about this, but we know that circumstances will continue to evolve.
Our resource plans for additional generation remain in place.
We expect to announce the results of outstanding wind and solar request for proposal in the near future.
Just as in our pre COVID-19 world, as we learn more about our customer needs and how we are all recovering from the impact of our current situation, we will evaluate our assumptions for future generation resource needs and make any necessary adjustments.
To date, we have not experienced any material supply chain disruptions.
Our team is actively monitoring for potential disruptions and has conducted a contract review to confirm the adequacy of our summer resource needs.
In addition, they've solicited supplier input to identify market risks associated with 800-plus high-volume suppliers, including all of our critical suppliers.
As with many other aspects of our operations, mitigation plans are in place to minimize any potential supply chain disruptions.
On the regulatory front, the Arizona Corporation Commission has been busy addressing COVID-19 concerns and adjusting their work to accommodate social distancing guidelines.
Not surprisingly, as a result, a number of their work streams have been delayed.
As you may recall, the original rate case schedule that staff had was going to file testimony on May 20.
At the request of the commission staff, that date has been extended to August 3, and the hearing is now scheduled to begin on September 30.
On May five and 6, the commission held open meetings discussing our rate comparison tool, how to refund or collect the demand-side management funds and treatment for cost associated with COVID-19.
As a result of the discussion, the commission voted to return $36 million of overcollected demand-side management funds to customers through a onetime bill credit in June.
No votes were taken regarding the other matters.
However, I'll note that Chairman Burns did indicate that he plans to bring the topic of an accounting order for COVID-related cost before the commission again at a later date.
Our clean energy commitment received some positive validation in March after the commission held a workshop to discuss clean energy rules.
Following that workshop, Chairman Burns, Commissioner Kennedy and Commissioner Marquez Peterson all publicly expressed support for a 100% clean by 2050 standard.
And obviously, that's aligned with our clean energy commitment, and I think that's a good sign for the future of clean energy in Arizona.
A good future for clean energy in Arizona means robust economic development in our state and an opportunity for financial growth for Pinnacle West.
We've never experienced anything like COVID-19, but we've been through many challenging times in our 136 years of service to Arizona.
We don't know today what the ultimate disruptions or impacts of this pandemic will be, but I have no doubt we'll navigate both through the near term and continue to deliver on our long-term goals.
I want to add to Jeff's appreciation and recognition of our team's accomplishments under these unusual circumstances.
I have always been proud of the APS workforce, but seeing our teams lead through this pandemic with such tenacity and strength has truly been inspiring.
I would also like to share our appreciation for those in the medical profession and other essential service providers, making very real sacrifices to help our communities navigate the COVID-19 impacts.
Before I discuss some of the unique aspects of our service territory and strengths that will serve us well through this current challenge, I want to briefly touch on our first quarter results.
2020 started out strong, earning $0.27 per share compared to $0.16 per share in the first quarter of 2019.
Lower adjusted O&M and higher pension in OPEB nonservice costs contributed to the increase in earnings.
We also experienced 2.2% customer growth and 0.8% weather-normalized sales growth in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2019.
Excluding the last two weeks of March, weather-normalized sales for the quarter were within our original 2020 annual guidance range of 1% to 2%.
While we started the year strong, we have also begun to experience impacts, including a reduction in load from the COVID-19 social distancing and stay-at-home guidelines.
From March 13, the date when many Arizona schools and businesses closed, through April 30, we have seen an approximate 14% reduction in weather-normalized commercial and industrial load compared to the same period last year, partially offset by an approximate 7% increase in weather-normalized residential load.
The reduction in C&I load equates to an earnings decrease of around $0.14 per share, while the increase in residential usage contributes about $0.04 per share for a net reduction of approximately $0.10 compared to our original expectations for this period.
We cannot predict the ultimate duration or impacts from the social distancing and stay-at-home guidelines resulting from COVID-19 pandemic.
However, we are committed to sharing with you today the information we have, scenario sensitivities and mitigating factors.
On April 30, Governor Ducey extended the stay home, stay healthy, stay connected order through May 15, with some reopenings prior to that date.
On May 4, retail establishments were committed to reopen, while following certain restrictions.
Effective today, hair salons may open.
And on Monday, restaurants are permitted to reopen.
While the process and timing for a full reopening is still uncertain, this is a positive step to restarting the Arizona economy.
Despite the fact that Arizona has already started to reopen, if we assume the trend we experienced from March 13 through April 30 continues through the end of the second quarter, we would anticipate a net weather-normalized sales decrease of approximately 7% compared to the second quarter 2019 and an earnings per share decrease of approximately $0.20 compared to our original second quarter 2020 expectations.
The impacts from COVID-19 are not unique to us, but there are a few differentiating factors I'd like to highlight, most notably weather, cost management and sales growth.
As most of you know, in the hot Southwest desert, our demand is significantly influenced by weather and air conditioning load.
For this reason, our earnings are heavily weighted toward the third quarter.
Historically, approximately 56% of our annual earnings comes from Q3, 28% from Q2 and only 6% from the first quarter.
While we have already experienced a reduction in load from COVID-19, this reduction has occurred in our milder, shoulder season months.
As we saw last year, with the weather impact of negative $0.25 per share, weather alone can play a significant factor in our annual earnings.
This year, Phoenix reached triple-digit temperatures already in April, setting record highs, and we've maintained above 100 degrees every day this week with excessive heat warnings already in effect.
Cost management is another key lever for us to mitigate the potential decrease in sales.
We will continue our focus on cost management using Lean Sigma that we introduced throughout the organization in 2019.
Our commitment to becoming a lean operating company through continuously eliminating unnecessary costs out of the business contributed to our success in meeting earnings expectations in 2019.
The current COVID environment is giving our team another reason to rally in 2020, as we work hard to realize additional efficiencies this year.
We've already experienced a number of successes in this space, in addition to natural O&M reductions from adjustments in our processes and scope of work related to COVID.
For example, by the end of this year, we'll have deployed 28 bots across the enterprise as part of our digital transformation program.
In our fossil fleet, as an example, we're now using robotic process automation to complete all work packages.
The use of technology to automate this process will save employees about 1,800 hours per year.
Just five of the automations planned for the first part of this year are expected to produce an NPV benefit of $1.8 million over the next five years.
These examples and our focus on reducing costs will serve us well, not just through the interim challenges, but also in achieving our long-term goals of providing customers with affordable and reliable service.
While total sales will likely continue to lag during the duration of the stay-at-home period, we remain confident in the long-term growth of our service territory.
According to the Arizona Technology Council's quarterly impact report, Arizona tech sector is growing at a rate 40% faster than the U.S. overall.
Metro Phoenix area showed strong job growth through February of 2020, which has consistently been above the national average.
Through February, employment in Metro Phoenix increased 3.2% compared to 1.5% for the entire U.S. Construction employment in Metro Phoenix increased by 5.4%, and manufacturing employment increased by 2.1%.
This data reflects pre COVID-19 conditions, and we expect to see the 2.2% customer growth rate we experienced in the first quarter to slow in the near term.
However, the qualities and fundamentals that I mentioned that have consistently attracted residents to Arizona, including a low cost of living, attractive weather and robust employment opportunities, remain intact and likely to continue supporting long-term growth after the economy normalizes.
In regard to our future capital investments, we remain committed to the $4.7 billion capex forecast for the 2020 through 2022 time frame, largely driven by clean energy investments.
Information regarding COVID-19 and the potential impact is fluid and changing rapidly.
We will continue to assess our capex plans, load forecast, sales expectations, O&M and other financial data points as more information becomes available.
We recognize there are potential scenarios where COVID-19 impacts could necessitate changes in the timing or scope of our investment plans.
However, as of today, we do not believe the limited load reductions experienced thus far require any alterations to our long-term plans.
Similarly, we continue to believe 2020 Pinnacle West consolidated earnings of $4.75 to $4.95 per share remain achievable, assuming the impacts for COVID-19 dissipate by the end of the second quarter, and customer and sales growth resumes once the economy normalizes.
Additional O&M savings are also being assessed by our management team to mitigate the impact from lost revenue.
A complete list of key factors and assumptions underlying our 2020 guidance can be found on slides three and four.
Another advantage for Pinnacle West is our financial health.
We have a strong balance sheet, A- credit rating, well-funded pensions, sufficient liquidity and no equity needs in 2020.
We currently have $1.2 billion in revolver capacity with an option to increase by another $500 million.
As of May 1, we have drawn down $310 million on our revolvers.
In addition, all remaining Pinnacle West long-term debt maturing in 2020 will occur in November and December, and APS's $200 million term loan matures in August.
With all the long-term maturities falling late in the year, we have ample flexibility to assess the market conditions and evaluate our options.
Further, at year-end 2019, our pension was 97% funded.
With our liability driven investment strategy, our pension was 96.4% funded as of March 31, 2020, highlighting our resilience to the market volatility.
Last week, we proudly celebrated 136 years of service to Arizona customers and communities, and we've been through plenty of challenges before.
As Jeff mentioned, we were well prepared for this current challenge.
We started from a position of financial strength.
The seasonality of our jurisdiction and the exceptional skills and sophistication of our team give us confidence that we will effectively navigate the near term and continue to work toward our long-term commitments.

user
q1 earnings per share $0.27.
sees fy 2020 earnings per share $4.75 to $4.95.
continues to believe its 2020 consolidated earnings guidance of $4.75 to $4.95 per diluted share is still achievable.
will continue its focus on managing costs and utilizing lean principles to help mitigate any impacts of pandemic.
pinnacle west capital - 2020 outlook assumes impacts from covid-19 dissipate by end of june, customer and sales growth resume once economy normalizes.

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