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Text: Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC, and we encourage you to review them.
We will attempt to complete our call within one hour, seriously, as we know that another multi-family company is holding their call right after us.
If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or email after the call concludes.
The COVID pandemic has brought with it sweeping changes in the lives of every American including how they work, where they work and whether they can even work.
Every business has had to change and adapt to this unprecedented pandemic.
And thinking about the scope of these changes, I recall that quote from Jack Welch that I heard years ago which is, change before you have to.
With only five words, Jack perfectly captured what has separated many companies' abilities to successfully navigate through the past year.
Throughout our history, we have grown and maintained a culture that encourages and rewards efforts by team Camden to change before we have to.
Examples include, migrating to cloud based financial systems over 18 months ago, making work-from-home seamless for most of our employees, creating a technology package for Camden communities that provides discounted high-speed Internet, creating a more robust work-from-home experience for our residents, implementing a resident package delivery program that requires packages to be delivered directly to each resident's front door, creating the same flexibility and convenience enjoyed by most single-family homeowners and developing Chirp, a mobile access solution, which we sold to RealPage last fall.
When fully rolled out in 2021, this product will enhance our on-demand virtual leasing and self-guided tours while enabling unassisted tours and leasing outside of our normal office hours.
Residents will also be able to schedule package and grocery deliveries directly to their apartments when they're away from home.
We will continue to find ways to change before we have to in everything we do.
For the past year, we have utilized virtual meeting platforms like Zoom and Microsoft Teams for investor and analyst meetings and industry conferences and internal Camden meetings.
Beginning next quarter, we hope to offer our quarterly earnings calls on a more interactive virtual platform as well.
As we start 2021, our outlook is optimistic.
Our assumptions are based on the first half of the year and during a continued battle against the COVID virus with ongoing difficulties for many businesses and workers until the country's vaccination rates accelerate.
We hope that the second half of the year will show improvement as more businesses reopen and more people ultimately get back to work.
Fortunately, in many of our Sunbelt markets in which we operate have already reopen businesses and added back many of the jobs that were lost early in the pandemic, setting the stage for recovery in the second half of 2021 and beyond.
While the operating environment we faced was one of the toughest ever, you had made sure that we improved the lives of our teammates, customers and stakeholders, one experience at a time.
Keith, your chance for change.
And on the idea of change before you have to, I think Henry Ford was on to something when he said, if I had asked my customers, what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.
I'll address the markets in the order of best to worst by assigning a letter grade to each one and as well as our view on whether we believe that market is likely to be improving, stable or declining in the year ahead.
Following the market overview, I'll provide additional details on our fourth quarter operations and 2021 same-property guidance.
We anticipate overall same-property revenue growth this year in the range of down 25 basis points to up 1.75% for our portfolio with the majority of our markets falling within that range.
The outliers on the positive side would be Phoenix, San Diego, Inland Empire and Tampa, which should produce revenue growth in the 3% to 4% range.
At the low end of that range would be Houston, which is likely to remain in the down 2% range.
Expected same-property revenue growth for 2021 is 75 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance range and all markets received a grade of C or higher with an average rating of B for the overall portfolio.
Our outlook for supply and demand in 2021 is based on multiple third party economic forecasts and in general, most firms project a recovery in job growth in Camden's markets along with a steady amount of new supply.
Other economists have projected up to 1.9 million jobs and 175,000 completions.
So the outlook seems to be manageable regardless of which estimates prove to be correct.
For 2021, our top ranking once again goes to Phoenix with an average of 5% revenue growth over the past three years and expected revenue growth of 3% to 4% this year.
We give this market an A rating with a stable outlook.
Supply and demand metrics for 2021 looks strong in Phoenix with estimates calling for over 90,000 new jobs and roughly 9,000 new units coming online this year.
Up next are San Diego Inland Empire and Tampa, both earning A minus ratings and improving outlooks with 2021 revenue growth also projected in a 3% to 4% range and both markets produced 1% to 2% revenue growth last year but are budgeted to accelerate in 2021 given recent trends.
Similar to Phoenix, the San Diego Inland Empire market projects nearly 100,000 new jobs in 2021 with new supply of only around 7,000 apartments.
Tampa should deliver around 7,000 new units with roughly 50,000 new jobs being created, providing a good balance of supply and demand in both of those markets.
Atlanta and Raleigh round out our Top 5 with budgeted revenue growth of around 2% for 2021 and ratings of A minus and stable.
In Atlanta job growth is expected to rebound to over 100,000 with only 7,000 new apartment completions and Raleigh projections call for 40,000 additional jobs with completions in the 4,000 to 5,000 unit range.
Denver, DC Metro, and Austin, all received a B plus rating but with declining outlooks.
All of these markets have been strong performers for us over the past several years, averaging nearly 3% annual property revenue growth over the last three years and 2% last year, but we do expect market conditions to moderate over the course of 2021, given steady levels of new supply and increasing competition for new renters.
Supply demand ratios in Denver and DC remained steady with 65,000 and 90,000 new jobs anticipated respectively during 2021 with new supply coming in at roughly 8,000 and 12,000 new units respectively scheduled for delivery this year.
In Austin, new supply has been coming online steadily for several years with over 15,000 new units expected this year offset by roughly 60,000 new jobs.
In Southeast Florida, market conditions rate a B, an improving outlook after ranking at a B minus, C plus for the past two years, we're starting to see some improvement on the horizon and prospects for positive growth in 2021.
New supply has remained steady over the past few years at roughly 10,000 new units.
The 2021 estimates call for 70,000 new jobs in that market this year.
Competition from for sale and rental condominiums is still an issue in that market, but we expect slightly better operating conditions in 2021 and an improvement from the down 0.4% same-property revenue growth achieved last year.
Orlando earns a B rating with a stable outlook.
Job growth has moderated in Orlando, given their exposure to travel and hospitality industries and that trend should continue in 2021.
New development activity remains strong, so the level of supply should be steady this year with roughly 8,000 to 10,000 completions versus 25,000 to 30,000 new jobs.
Charlotte and Dallas, both received B minus grade with a stable outlook.
Our 2020 performance in Charlotte was slightly better than average for our portfolio but the ongoing high levels of supply, particularly in the downtown and in-town submarkets will challenge our pricing power in 2021.
Approximately 7,500 new units are anticipated this year versus roughly 8,000 that came online last year and the city should add over 50,000 new jobs.
Conditions in Dallas are similar with 17,000 new deliveries expected this year but job growth estimates are much stronger with over 110,000 new jobs expected.
A healthy economy in 2021 should help Dallas absorb the over 20,000 units it's delivered in each of the past few years.
But once again, competition will be strong and pricing power are likely to be limited.
We gave LA Orange County a C plus rating with an improving outlook.
Our portfolio in LA County saw higher delinquencies in bad debt in 2020 than most of our other markets.
But we're hopeful that conditions will begin to improve, particularly in the back half of 2021.
Orange County should perform slightly better, but still not as well as our Southern California markets including San Diego and Inland Empire.
LA Orange County faces healthy operating conditions without supply and demand metrics, job growth should be around 130,000 new jobs with completions of roughly 18,000 apartments expected this year.
Houston received a C rating this year with a stable outlook as we expect to see negative rent growth again this year.
Estimates for new supply are once again over 20,000 apartments coming online this year.
So we do expect Houston will continue to struggle with many new lease-ups getting high levels of concessions.
However, Houston's job growth may post decent recovery this year with nearly 100,000 new jobs expected which would certainly help absorb some of the inventory in our market.
Overall, our portfolio rating this year is a B with most of our markets expected to moderate slightly in revenue growth for 2021 compared to 2020.
As I mentioned earlier, all of our markets should achieve between a minus 2% and a plus 4% revenue growth this year and we expect our 2021 total portfolio same property revenue growth to be 0.75% at the midpoint of our guidance range.
Now a few details of our 2020 operating results.
Same-property revenue growth was one 0.1% for the fourth quarter and 1.1% for the full year of 2020.
Our top performers for the quarter were Phoenix at 5.7%, Tampa at 2.9%, Raleigh at 1.5% and Atlanta at 1.3% growth.
Rental rate trends for the fourth quarter were as expected with both signed and effective leases down around 4%, renewals in the mid-to-high 2% range for a blended rate of roughly down 1%.
Our preliminary January results indicate a slight improvement across the board for new leases, renewals and blended growth.
February and March renewal offerings are being sent out on an average of roughly 3% increase.
Occupancy averaged 95.5% during the fourth quarter compared 95.6% last quarter and 96.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
January 2021 occupancy has averaged 95.7% compared to 96.2% last January and is slightly up from 4Q20 levels.
Annual net turnover for 2020 was 200 basis points lower than 2019 at 41% versus 43% and as expected, move-outs to purchase homes rose seasonally for the quarter to about 19% but we're still at about 15% for the full year of 2020, which compares to an average full year move-out rate of about 15% over the last four years.
And before I move on to our financial results and guidance, a brief update on our recent real estate activities.
During the fourth quarter of 2020, we completed construction on both Camden Rhino, a 233 unit, $79 million new development in Denver and Camden Cypress Creek II, a 234 unit, $32 million joint venture new development in Houston.
Also during the quarter, we began leasing at Camden North End Phase II, a 343 unit $90 million new development in Phoenix and we acquired 4 acres of land in Downtown Durham, North Carolina for the future development of approximately 354 apartment homes.
In the quarter, we collected 98.6% of our scheduled rents with only 1.4% delinquent.
Once again, this compares favorably to the fourth quarter of 2019 when we collected 97.9% of our scheduled rents with an actually higher 2.1% delinquency.
We do typically see a slight seasonal uptick in delinquency.
Turning to bad debt.
In accordance with GAAP, certain uncollected rent is recognized by us as income in the current month.
We then evaluate this uncollected rent and establish what we believe to be an appropriate bad debt reserve, which serves as a corresponding offset to property revenues in the same period.
When a resident moves out owing us money, we typically have previously reserved 100% of the amounts owed as bad debt and there will be no future impact to the income statement.
We reevaluate our bad debt reserves monthly for collectability.
Last night, we reported funds from operations for the fourth quarter of 2020 of $122.4 million or $1.21 per share, $0.03 below the midpoint of our prior guidance range of $1.21 to $1.27.
This $0.03 per share variance of the midpoint resulted entirely from an approximate $0.035 or $3.5 million non-cash adjustment to retail straight-line rent receivables during the fourth quarter.
This adjustment represents retail revenue which under straight-line accounting, we had previously recognized but not yet received and its ultimate collectability is now uncertain.
Over 95% of this amount is from one retail tenant.
We had been in negotiations with since the summer.
As a fourth quarter progressed, it became apparent that significant lease restructuring might be necessary and we made the appropriate accounting adjustments.
Same-store net operating income was in line with the expectations for the fourth quarter as a slight outperformance in occupancy was offset by the timing of repair and maintenance expenses, higher property tax rates in Houston and the timing of certain property tax refunds in Washington DC.
For 2020, we delivered full year same-store revenue growth of 1.1%, expense growth of 3.8% and an NOI decline of 0.4%.
The midpoint of our 2021 FFO and same-store guidance is predicated upon a return to a more normal operating environment by mid-2021.
You can refer to Page 28 of our fourth quarter supplemental package for details on the key assumptions driving our financial outlook.
We expect our 2021 FFO per diluted share to be in the range of $4.80 to $5.20 with the midpoint of $5 representing a $0.10 per share increase from our 2020 results.
After adjusting for the fourth quarter 2020 $0.035 write-off of retail straight-line rent receivables and the 2020 full year $0.15 of COVID-19 related impact, which included approximately $0.095 of resident relief funds, $0.03 of frontline bonuses and $0.02 of other directly related COVID expenses, the midpoint of our 2021 guidance represents an $0.08 per share core year-over-year FFO decrease, which results primarily from an approximate $0.08 per share decrease in FFO due to higher net interest expense, which results primarily from the full-year impact of our April 2020 bond offering and actual and projected 2020 and 2021 net acquisition and development activity.
An approximate $0.06 per share decrease in FFO resulting primarily from the combination of higher general and administrative, property management and fee and asset management expenses combined with lower interest income resulting from lower cash balances and rates, an approximate $0.055 per share decrease in FFO related to the performance of our same-store portfolio.
At the midpoint, we are expecting a same-store net operating income decline of 0.85% driven by revenue growth of 0.75% and expense growth of 3.5%.
Each 1% change in same-store NOI is approximately $0.06 per share in FFO.
An approximate $0.04 per share decrease in FFO from an assumed $450 million of pro forma dispositions toward the end of 2021, an approximate $0.02 per share decrease in FFO from our retail portfolio, an approximate $0.015 decrease in FFO due to the non-recurrence of our third quarter 2020 gain on sale of our Chirp technology investment and an approximate $0.01 per share decrease in FFO from lower fee and asset management income.
This $0.28 cumulative decrease in an anticipated FFO per share is partially offset by an approximate $0.11 per share net increase in FFO related to operating income from our non-same-store properties resulting primarily from the incremental contribution of our six development communities in lease-up during either 2020 and/or 2021 and finally, an approximate $0.09 per share increase in FFO due to an assumed $450 million of pro forma acquisitions mid-year.
Our 3.5% budgeted expense growth at the midpoint assumes insurance expense will increase by approximately 30% due to the continued unfavorable insurance market.
Property insurance comprises approximately 4% of our total operating expenses.
The remainder of our property-level expense categories are anticipated to grow at approximately 2.5% in the aggregate.
Page 28 of our supplemental package also details other assumptions, including the plan for $120 million to $320 million of on-balance sheet development starts spread throughout the year.
We expect FFO per share for the first quarter of 2021 to be within the range of $1.20 to $1.26.
After excluding the $0.035 per share fourth quarter 2020 write-off of retail straight-line receivables, the midpoint of $1.23 for the first quarter represents a $0.015 per share decrease from the fourth quarter of 2020 which is primarily the result of a combination of lower fee and asset management income and higher overhead expenses attributable in part to the timing of our annual salary increases.
We anticipate sequential quarterly same-store NOI growth will be flat as the reset of our annual property tax accrual on January 1 of each year and the typical seasonal trends of other expenses, including the timing of on-site salary increases will be offset by anticipated property tax refunds in Washington DC and Atlanta.
As of today, we have just over $1.2 billion of liquidity, comprised of approximately $320 million in cash and cash equivalents and no amounts outstanding on our $900 million unsecured credit facility.
At quarter-end, we had $325 million left to spend over the next three years under our existing development pipeline and we have no scheduled debt maturities until 2022.
Our current excess cash is invested with various banks, earning approximately 30 basis points.
And finally, as I have discussed on prior calls, in 2019 and 2020, we set in play important technological advancements.
2021 will be the transition year that will lead to realized efficiencies in 2022, 2023 and beyond.
From cloud-based financial systems to virtual leasing to mobile access to AI technologies that allow us to meet residents on their schedule, we are poised very well for the recovery.
At this time, we will open the call up to questions.

user
compname reports qtrly ffo per diluted share of $1.21.
qtrly ffo per diluted share $1.21.
sees 1q21 ffo per diluted share of $1.20 - $1.26.
sees 2021 ffo per diluted share of $4.80 - $5.20.

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