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Text: On a consolidated basis, the company reported net sales for the second quarter of $406 million and adjusted EBITDA of $15 million.
A few highlights to mention.
Our Paperboard business continued to see strong demand.
Based on that strong demand, we implemented previously announced price increases across our SBS portfolio.
We successfully completed our largest major maintenance outage of 2021 in April at our Lewiston, Idaho mill, which impacted the business by $22 million.
As previously discussed, our tissue business saw lower shipments, reflecting market trends.
Consumers destock their pantries and retailers work through elevated inventory levels.
Both industry data and our own sales orders point to a bottoming out of shipments in April.
We started seeing a recovery in May.
With the decrease in orders and elevated pull price levels, we took downtime on our tissue assets to meet demand and reduce inventories, which impacted our fixed cost absorption.
We also announced an indefinite closure of Anina Wisconsin tissue mill and an exit from the away-from-home tissue market.
These actions will result in a lower overall cost structure of our tissue business.
In comparing the first quarter to second quarter 2021 raw material inflation was largely offset by the previously announced price increases in SBS and mix.
And finally, we maintained ample liquidity of $297 million at quarter end and reduced net debt by $4 million.
As noted during previous quarters, we remain focused on our top priorities during COVID, the health and safety of our people and safely operating our assets to service customers.
We're monitoring the latest trends and are adjusting protocols and policies to keep our people safe.
Let's discuss some additional details about both of our businesses.
As you recall, we estimate that approximately 2/3 of paperboard demand is derived from products that are more recession-resilient and 1/3 is driven by more economically sensitive or discretionary products.
We continue to experience strong demand from our folding carton customers, and a recovery in food service segments.
Demand for food packaging products and retail paper place has remained healthy throughout the pandemic.
We're also pleased with the market reception of our sustainability focused brands with NuVo Cup and ReMagine folding carton.
Both are playing a role in our favorable market position and our order books continue to be robust.
We are diligently working to implement the previously announced price increases.
Since the beginning of this year, Fastmarkets RISI, a third-party industry publication recognized price increases that totaled $130 per ton in folding carton and $100 per ton in cup, including the latest increases in July of $30 per ton in folding and $50 per ton in carton.
Typically, it takes us up to two quarters before realizing most of these price changes in our financials.
We will discuss the estimated impact to our 2021 results later in our comments.
We completed our largest planned maintenance outage for 2021 during the second quarter.
The economic impact from this outage to our adjusted EBITDA was $22 million, within our previously discussed range of $21 million and $24 million.
Our industry view remains largely the same.
The market for tissue in the U.S. is traditionally 2/3 at home and 1/3 away from home with around 10 million tons per year of total demand.
As consumers spend more time at home in 2020, there was a shift toward at-home consumption.
Throughout the pandemic, we witnessed consumer pantry loading and retailers responding by placing higher orders with existing suppliers and seeking out tertiary suppliers, both domestic and international to need demand.
We believe that this could have led to more than a month of excess inventory in the supply chain by the end.
Let me share some data in context pertaining to demand trends that we witnessed in the first half of this year.
Consumers started to return to a more normal lifestyle in Q1 and Q2 as vaccines were becoming available and restrictions were being eased.
This led to a reduction of at-home tissue purchases and destocking of consumer pantries.
Based on IRI market data, consumer purchases based on dollar sales bottomed out in March.
Due to these consumer trends, retailers were faced with higher inventories in Q1 and into Q2.
In response, they reduced orders to manage their inventories.
Based on Fastmarkets RISI data, retailer shipments of finished goods bottomed out in April.
This is consistent with our order patterns.
Both external data and our own internal order patterns are indicating that we're in a demand recovery period, which we believe will continue for balance of the year.
We believe the industry's long-term trends are healthy, and we expect continued growth in overall consumption and private brands continuing to gain share.
Let me provide some additional detail on our tissue volume trends.
We shipped 10.2 million cases in the second quarter, which was down approximately 36% and 13% compared to the second quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021, respectively.
Our low point for shipments was 3.1 million cases in April.
Since then, we've had more month-over-month growth in May and June.
We expect this improvement trend to continue throughout the fourth quarter.
We're also closely monitoring channel and customer trends to ensure that we're aligned with areas in the market with the highest long-term growth potential.
To adjust to reduce demand, high inventory levels and high coal prices, we took significant asset downtime in the second quarter, which negatively impacted our profitability.
We will continue to manage our production levels in Q3 and Q4 to service demand reduce inventory and minimize cost.
Additionally, in the second quarter, we announced the indefinite closure of our Neenah, Wisconsin site with production ceasing in July.
While our people in Neenah operated a site well, the assets were not economically viable.
Retail volume from Neenah is being shifted to other lower-cost facilities, such as our Shelby, North Carolina mill.
By closing Neenah, we're also exiting the away-from-home market, where we had a small and subscale position.
While the decision was the right one for the business, it is difficult on our people and in the community.
The consolidated company summary income statement shows second quarter 2021, the second quarter of 2020 and the first half of each year.
In the second quarter of 2021, our net loss was $52 million.
Diluted net loss per share was $3.10 and adjusted loss per share of $1.07.
The adjustments incorporate the impacts from the Neenah site closure as well as other adjustments.
The impact of the Neenah aclosure activities in the quarter was $41.7 million.
The noncash portion of the charge, $36.9 million was primarily a fixed asset impairment, but also included inventory and other reserves.
The cash portion of the charge was for employee pay during a worn notification period and severance-related expenses of $4.9 million.
We anticipate that we will have similar employee-related cash expenses in the third quarter, slightly above $4 million.
These estimates reflect our best assessment at this time, and we will update them as appropriate as we monetize the assets at Neenah.
The corresponding segment results are on slide seven.
Our Paperboard business completed a major maintenance outage in the second quarter of 2021 that impacted us by $22 million, while consumer products saw lower production and demand.
In our comments during the second quarter, we mentioned that our adjusted EBITDA could be close to breakeven for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the first quarter of 2021 adjusted EBITDA of $54 million.
With $15 million of adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter, we came in better than our initial expectations.
The improved performance relative to expectations included the impact of the Neenah closure better tissue demand, cost mitigation efforts and better SBS price realization.
Slide eight is a year-over-year adjusted EBITDA comparison for our Pulp and Paperboard business in the second quarter.
We have and are continuing to implement the previously announced price increases as well as experiencing some positive mix benefits with similar sales volumes as last year.
Our costs were impacted by the major maintenance outage of $22 million as well as inflation in raw material inputs and freight.
You can review a comparison of our second quarter 2021 performance relative to first quarter 2021 performance on slide 14 in the appendix.
Price and mix were a limited part of the story for tissue.
Our sales of converted products in the second quarter were 10.2 million cases, representing a unit decline of 36% versus prior year.
Our production of converted product in the quarter was 9.6 million cases or down 40% versus the prior year.
With the actions that we took at Neenah, drawdown of inventory and lower incentive comp accruals in SG&A, we were able to partially offset some of the raw material inflationary headwinds.
We anticipate the financial impact from raw material inflation will increase in the coming quarters.
You can review a comparison of our second quarter 2021 performance relative to the first quarter of 2020 on slide 15 in the appendix.
We also have finished goods production and other financial data on a quarterly basis on slide 16 for both businesses.
Slide 10 outlines our capital structure.
Our liquidity was $296.5 million at the end of the second quarter.
With the cash flow headwinds of the second quarter behind us, we believe we will generate more free cash flow in the back half of 2021 to further reduce our net debt.
Maintenance financial covenants do not present a material constraint on our financial flexibility, and we do not have near-term debt maturities.
Slide 11 provides a perspective on our third quarter outlook and other key drivers for full year 2021.
Our expectations assume that we continue to operate our assets without significant COVID-related disruptions.
As previously discussed, demand visibility in tissue as well as inflation expectations have and will continue to be unpredictable.
I would like to focus my comments for the third quarter expected adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to $48 million and build up to that range from our second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $15 million.
The planned major maintenance outage at Lewiston in April is behind us with a negative impact of $22 million.
And we recently completed the planned outage at Cypress Bend this past weekend with an anticipated impact of $3 million to $5 million.
The difference of the adjusted EBITDA impact between the second and third quarters resulted in an expected increase of adjusted EBITDA of $17 million to $19 million.
Previously, announced SBS pricing is expected to positively impact us during the quarter by $9 million to $11 million.
We estimate that raw material cost inflation will negatively impact our business by $9 million to $13 million in the third quarter relative to the second quarter.
When comparing the second quarter to our expectations for the third quarter, we believe that our previously announced SBS price increase could largely offset raw material inflation.
Tissue shipments are expected to grow by 10% to 15% relative to the 10.2 million cases shipped in the second quarter.
We shipped 3.7 million cases in July relative to our average monthly shipments of 3.4 million in the second quarter and our low point of 3.1 million cases in April.
The recovery in tissue shipments is occurring, and we expect it to continue through the rest of 2021.
As we expect to reduce inventories, we anticipate production being slightly below demand.
With the closure of Neenah, we are exiting the away-from-home tissue business, which was approximately 100,000 to 150,000 cases per month and will mildly impact our converted shipment volume trend lines and comparisons.
We will also receive the benefits during the third quarter from the Neenah closure.
While we are not providing specific annual guidance for 2021, there are several drivers, assumptions and variables we'd like to provide to you with an update relative to 2020.
We are expecting continued positive impact from the previously announced SBS price increases were expected to result in year-over-year benefits of $40 million to $45 million.
In our Paperboard business, planned major maintenance outages are expected to reduce our earnings for 2021 compared to 2020 by $25 million to $27 million, which is down from our previous guidance.
We are moving our head box project at Lewiston from the third quarter of 2021 into 2022 to accommodate our strong paperboard demand.
We have updated our guidance, including some adjustments to 2022 on slide 20, which reflects our current plan.
Our current view can -- is that our tissue volume decline year-over-year will be above 20%, which is not adjusted for the impact of our exit from the away-from-home business.
In total, from 2020 to 2021 input cost inflation, including pulp, packaging, energy, chemicals and freight is expected to be $60 million to $70 million relative to our previous estimate of $65 million to $75 million.
The majority of this inflation is in pulp.
The Neenah site recently generated negative adjusted EBITDA.
And by closing the site, we will avoid these losses and lower our overall cost structure by moving production to other sites.
These actions will also help realize the benefits of the Shelby investment.
In total, the benefit on a combined basis is expected to exceed $10 million annually with full benefit realization occurring in the fourth quarter.
For the full year 2021, we are also anticipating the following: we expect interest expense between $36 million and $38 million; depreciation and amortization between $104 million and $108 million; capital expenditures between $50 million and $55 million, which is slightly lower than prior expectations; and our effective tax rate is expected to be slightly higher than previous expectations at 26% to 27%.
I would like to reiterate my comments from last quarter regarding the actions that we're taking across the company to proactively address our market-driven headwinds and tailwinds.
In our Paperboard business, we're benefiting from the implementation of previously announced price increases and are maximizing production to meet demand.
This includes moving some maintenance and a head box installation from 2021 to 2022.
In our tissue business, we're working with customers to offset higher costs through product and other changes.
In addition to the market recovery in tissue demand, we're focused on growing our volume through various sales initiatives that have been discussed in previous quarters.
Across both businesses, we're taking steps to reduce both short- and long-term costs.
As previously discussed, we continue to focus on generating cash to reduce our net debt.
Last quarter, I spoke about performance improvement efforts focused on improving core operations in the medium to long term, aimed at achieving the full profit potential of Clearwater Paper over the next several years.
Given the inflation and competitive pressures in our industry, we are working to find ways like this effort to combat margin compression and achieve margin expansion.
We're in the planning phases currently, and I look forward to updating you when we're in the execution phase.
Let me remind you of why I think these businesses are well positioned in the long run.
For our Paperboard division, we believe that the key strengths of this business are the following.
First, we operate well-invested assets with a geographic footprint, enabling us to efficiently service our customers.
We have a diverse customer base, which serves end markets that have largely stable demand.
Second, not being vertically integrated enables us to focus on independent customers with unparalleled service and quality commitment.
Third, we will lead to product and brand development, the business is well positioned to take advantage of trends toward more sustainable packaging and food service products.
Lastly, our Paperboard business has demonstrated an ability to generate good margins and solid cash flows.
Our Consumer Products division is a leader within the growing private branded tissue market.
From our vantage point, we believe the key strengths of this business are the following.
First, we have a national footprint with an ability a wide range of product categories and quality tiers, which is an attractive sales proposition to our customers.
Our expertise in manufacturing, supply chain and transportation is a key differentiator.
Second, there are long-term trends away from branded products to private brands.
Private brand tissue share in the U.S. rose to over 30% recently, up from 18% in 2011.
While these trends are impressive, we're still a long way from where many European countries are where private brands represent over half of total tissue share.
Lastly, tissue is an economically resilient and need-based product.
Historically, demand has not been negatively impacted by economic uncertainty.
After we get beyond the COVID-related distortions in the market, we're optimistic that this business will generate meaningful cash flows over the long run.
We're committed to improving our business to be successful both in the near and long term, and we believe that we will come out of 2021 a better and stronger operation than where we started.
Our balance sheet is well positioned to support us with strong liquidity, limited financial maintenance covenants and debt maturities, which are a few years away.
We're again with our Board to develop a medium- to long-term capital allocation plan.
We look forward to sharing more on these ideas, which include internal investments, external investments and return of capital to shareholders as we get closer to our 2.5 times target leverage ratio.

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q2 loss per share $3.10.
q2 adjusted non-gaap loss per share $1.07.
q2 revenue $406 million versus refinitiv ibes estimate of $420.7 million.

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