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Text: Today, we will be discussing our strong first quarter results and the highly accretive acquisition of DoublePoint Energy that leads to a stronger outlook with significant free cash flow generation.
We will also detail the high level of execution our teams continue to deliver and the top-tier ESG standards to which we adhere.
Pioneer delivered a very strong first quarter, generating free cash flow of approximately $370 million when adjusted for partially acquisition cost.
You can see that we increased our 2021 estimated free cash flow up to about $2.7 billion.
That's at strip pricing, which includes the contribution for the very accretive acquisition at DoublePoint and obviously, higher commodity prices as the strip continues to move up.
You can see the magnitude of the synergies, $525 million, which will improve our free cash flow generation, which will be highlighted on a subsequent slide.
And again, we'll remain focused on environmental stewardship and minimize flaring through our operations.
Lastly, you can see now with DoublePoint, we're the largest producer in the Permian.
That brings lower cost of capital, economies of scale, shared facilities and infrastructure.
And going into 2022, the company will be over 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day just in the Permian Basin in 2022.
Going to slide number four.
I think the key point here, solid execution from all levels of operation and our field drive strong first quarter results.
Again, the outperformance have exceeded the top end of guidance, oil production, was due to our field staff, bringing our production back online sooner, in the wake of the winter storm and also the outperformance of new wells.
Going to slide number five.
As Neal mentioned, we closed yesterday on our DoublePoint acquisition, approximately 100,000 acres right in the heart -- core of the core of the Midland Basin.
This will take our Midland Basin on up to over 900,000 net acres.
This transaction generates double-digit free cash flow on accretion per share, enabling increased variable dividends over the next several years.
Now with the contiguous acreage and the operational synergies, just to give you an idea how dominant we are in the Midland Basin, we'll have 25% of the basin rig count and 25% of the basin frac fleet rig count.
Again, allow us for continued synergies, drilling longer laterals on which Rich will talk about later.
Going to slide number six, long-term investment thesis.
When you look at the strip, last year -- I mean, of the strip over the next several years as it continues to move up and look at our model of growing oil production 5% per year over the next several years, our reinvestment rate will actually be below, we say 50 to 60% here.
It'll actually be below 50%.
We generate strong corporate returns, double-digit returns.
We'll continue to reduce our leverage.
It's at one today.
We'll continue to reduce it below 0.75 next year and continue to drive it down to a very, very low level.
We remain committed to our -- really, our key thesis and returning most of our capital back to the shareholders.
So we're targeting a 10% total return.
We'll talk more about that later.
Going to slide seven, compelling free cash flow generation.
We're showing now, with DoublePoint Energy on top in the brighter -- darker blue color, adding about $5 billion of free cash flow over the next several years to 2026, increasing our total free cash flow at the company.
With the strip, and this is a strip a few days ago.
So the number continues to move up with the strip moving up, generating $23 billion of free cash flow.
As we have already stated, approximately -- this actually represents 50% of our current enterprise value, that 20 -- total enterprise value, including market cap plus debt.
The addition of DoublePoint is a 25% increase on top of our free cash flow.
That's taken the $5 billion over the $23 billion -- $5 billion over $23 billion.
I think what's key is that when you look at the current stock price, our dividend yield will move up from 1.5% to over 4% in 2022 and over 8% in the following years to 2026.
That's at the current stock price.
I do have to have a call out for Devon and Rig's great slide, comparing their dividend to peers, I think we're in there around 1.5% toward the bottom quartile.
They're showing them leading this year at 7%.
Pioneer will move to second place next year, moving over 4, and then moving up to the top spot above Devon.
And the primary driver is really just our low -- our margins in the high 20s, our low-cost basis in addition to the fact that we're paying out 75% of our cash flow versus Devon's 50%.
Going to slide number eight.
Again, just emphasizing the variable dividend long-term shareholder return model.
Last quarter, we initiated the mechanics of it.
Mechanics will be paying out long term, roughly 75% of the remaining annual free cash flow after the base dividend is paid.
When you look at -- including the base dividend, approximately 80% of the company's free cash flow is expected to be returned to shareholders.
Between the base and the variable dividend, shareholders next year will -- should expect eight separate dividend checks per year.
Obviously, this is all subject to our Board approval, like we do on the base dividend and the variable dividend.
I'm going to start on slide number nine.
And with the closing of the DoublePoint transaction yesterday, we wanted to provide an updated outlook for our 2021 production and capital.
As Scott mentioned, DoublePoint is currently producing at 92,000 BOEs per day, and we expect to ramp them up to about 100,000 BOEs per day by the end of the quarter and with an additional 20 to 25 POPs planned between now and quarter end.
We plan to maintain that production, 100,000 BOEs a day for the second half of the year.
And so that's embedded in our updated guidance.
And we also have adjusted our guidance to reflect the actual results for Q1 where we were able to recover production from the winter storm quicker-than-anticipated and along with the Q1 strength of our well performance and execution by our operating teams.
So overall, we are forecasting 2021 production of 351,000 barrels of oil per day to 366,000 barrels of oil per day.
And on a BOE basis, 605,000 to 631,000.
Looking at capital, we are adding $530 million to $570 million of incremental capital related to the DoublePoint transaction over the course of the remainder of the year.
This is up from the bottom of our previous announcement since we were able to close the transaction earlier than originally anticipated.
Total capex is now projected at $2.95 billion to $3.25 billion on cash flow of about $5.9 billion based on strip prices, which is leading to what Scott talked about, $2.7 billion of free cash flow for the year.
Turning to slide 10.
You can see our -- for a full year, that we plan to average 22 to 24 rigs and deliver 470 to 510 POPs.
If you take that just for the remainder of the year, we plan to run with the addition of DoublePoint, 24 to 26 rigs and seven to nine frac fleets.
Currently, we're at 26 rigs and nine frac fleets.
This does reflect the fact that we do plan on reducing DoublePoint rig count from seven to five by year-end.
And longer term, as we think about reducing our growth rate from 30% down to 5%, we can drive that down to three to four rigs as we are consistent with our 5% growth plan over the long term.
You can see on the map there over one million acres, predominantly in the Midland Basin, 920,000 and 100,000 acres in the Delaware.
In terms of Delaware plans, we will start drilling our first well later this year.
The team is looking forward to bringing that same efficiency gains that we've achieved in the Midland Basin to the Delaware and see how we can further improve our wealth returns, especially given the higher oil cut that we see in Delaware and the lower royalty burden.
And just for a point of reference, first quarter production was 74% oil in the Delaware.
Turning to slide 11.
I want to provide an update on our planned synergies related to the Parsley and DoublePoint transactions.
On G&A, we've accomplished $100 million of Parsley savings.
So that's -- we checked that box.
As it relates to DoublePoint, they're running about $25 million annually in G&A.
We expect to bring that under $10 million on an annual basis, and we think we'll be there beginning of the third quarter of 2021.
On interest, we refinanced Parsley's bonds in January.
If you recall, those were over 5% coupon.
We refinanced those on a weighted average base well under 2%.
And we plan on refinancing the DoublePoint volumes later this month.
So along with paying off DoublePoint's credit facility that happened yesterday, we're going to accomplish our interest savings sooner than we originally anticipated, and we'll have that fully done by the end of this month.
On operational synergies, we are making great progress on those.
We've been able to leverage our supplier relationships and are seeing significant savings on things of like pressure pumping, wireline, cement, casing and tubulars to name a few examples.
We've also, and Joey will talk more about this, successfully tested simulfrac on our acreage during the first quarter, and we're seeing significant savings like the industry -- other industry participants in that $200,000 to $300,000 per well.
So this is something that we'll be able to not only execute across Pioneer's acreage, but we'll also be able to execute that, I guess, across Parsley's and DoublePoint's acreage.
The team has also continuing to optimize our development plans to take advantage of existing facilities.
So looking at tank batteries, water disposal, salt water disposal gathering system, reuse facilities and really optimizing those as we move into the 2021 -- 2022 program, sorry, to really take advantage of those savings.
And then as Scott mentioned, one of the other significant benefits of combining Parsley and DoublePoint is really adding to our contiguous acreage position.
And what this allows us to do, is we've successfully drilled longer laterals out to 15,000 feet, really up from the 9,000 to 10,000 feet that we've been drilling at, really allow for a lot of locations that we can drill longer laterals on, which is much more capital efficient and really adding essentially the same production by drilling fewer wells.
So it's still early, but it should add significant long-term value across our portfolio and just demonstrates the benefit of having contiguous blocking acreage to be able to drill that type of laterals.
Turning to slide 12.
Really, this just reflects our trend of what we've accomplished on G&A over the past three years, including the synergies from the acquisitions.
We are forecasting G&A per BOE to be around $1.15 to $1.20 by year-end.
And so, I think this is just an example of, really -- and highlights the focus of the company's had on improving returns and improving our return of capital to shareholders.
So it's really lowering our overall cost structure.
So you've seen us drive down well costs, lower LOE, lower G&A per BOE, lower interest per BOE, all with the idea of improving our free cash flow profile.
With that, I'll turn it to Neal to talk about breakevens.
On slide 13, you can see how Pioneer's high-quality asset base positions us as the only E&P to realize a corporate breakeven below $30 a barrel WTI within our peer group.
As Scott stated earlier, it's this attractive peer-leading breakeven oil price that enables Pioneer's low investment rate and drive significant free cash flow generation and return of capital to our shareholders.
This low breakeven price reflects the quality and the resilience of Pioneer's portfolio, underpinning our operational and financial strength and flexibility.
I'm going to be starting on slide 14.
Our drilling and completions teams continued their streak of resetting the bar with another great quarter of efficiency gains.
Our simulfrac operations contributed to these gains with the successful execution of four pads in Q1, where we were able to achieve approximately 3,000 feet of completed lateral per day.
This is greater than a 50% improvement when compared to our program average.
It's still early days, but we estimate savings to be in the range of $200,000 to $300,000 per well.
We will continue to refine our simulfrac operations and conduct more trials throughout the second quarter.
You will note that our wells per pad projection for 2021 is down slightly from last quarter, and this is due to the integration of DoublePoint pads into our schedule.
Still, our wells per pad continues to increase, which further contributes to our efficiency gains.
I know this slide only illustrates improvements in drilling and completions, so I want to emphasize that we are also seeing tremendous performance in our production operations, facilities, construction and water management teams, and none of this would be possible with those that support development planning, our robust supply chain and our expanding use of technology.
We remain focused on delivering peer leading performance, keeping our people safe and reducing our environmental footprint.
And so congratulations to all the teams for their contributions to our safe and efficient execution in Q1.
I'm now going to go to slide 15.
I know that Scott covered this in some detail last quarter, so I'll be brief.
So this chart represents more than 64 million barrels of hydrocarbon liquids per day, including the largest national oil companies, majors and independents.
Pioneer's operations produced barrels with one of the lowest associated CO2 emissions intensities globally.
Our low-cost, low-emissions barrels will continue to be desired around the world.
On slide number 16, the strong focus on ESG.
Pioneer continues to hold all pillars of ESG of great importance.
We've talked about our new sustainability report released late last year, which reflects our significant strides in reducing both Scope one and Scope two greenhouse gas and methane emissions, and incorporates emissions intensity reduction goals on both.
Pioneer inclusive of Parsley is a very low flaring intensity of 0.4% compared to peers of 1.3%.
We will also work to bring DoublePoint's assets in line with Pioneer's high standards of environmental stewardship.
We also continue to promote a diverse workforce, all the way up to the Board level, which reflects the community in which we live and work.
Again, on slide 17, we're really committed to driving value for our shareholders and returning cash flow back to the shareholders over the next several years.
We'll stop there and open it up for Q&A.

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for 2022, company expects to distribute up to 50% of 2021 free cash flow, after payment of base dividends.
expects its 2021 drilling, completions and facilities capital budget to range between $2.95 billion to $3.25 billion.
during 2021, company plans to operate an average of 22 to 24 horizontal drilling rigs in permian basin.

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