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Text: Joining today's call are Bob Blue, chairman, president, and chief executive officer; Jim Chapman, executive vice president, chief financial officer, and treasurer; and other members of the executive management team.
Before we provide our business update, I'd like to take a moment to remember our friend, Tom Farrell.
Tom's passing on April 2 was heartbreaking to those of us who loved, admired, and respected him.
We've heard from so many people, including many of you, about Tom's impact on the industry and the people who work in and around it.
It's quite clear that while Tom's list of professional accomplishments was long, the list of people whose lives he touched was much, much longer.
But much more often, we experienced his generosity, his loyalty, his dry sense of humor, and his focus on improving our company, our community, and our industry.
We should all seek to emulate his example, a consistent commitment to ethics and integrity, to excellence, and perhaps most of all, to the safety of our colleagues.
He cherished his friends and family, most of all.
We can't think of a better example of a leader, and we will miss him dearly.
As Bob said, we will very much miss Tom.
Let me now turn to our business update.
We are very focused on overall execution, including extending our track record of meeting or exceeding our quarterly guidance midpoints as we did again this quarter.
I'll start my review on Slide 4, with a reminder of Dominion Energy's compelling total shareholder return proposition.
We expect to grow our earnings per share by 6.5% per year through at least 2025, supported by our updated $32 billion five-year growth capital plan.
Keep in mind that over 80% of that capital investment is emissions reduction enabling and that over 70% is rider eligible.
We offer an attractive dividend yield of approximately 3.2%, reflecting a target payout ratio of 65% and an expected long-term dividend per share growth rate of 6%.
This resulting approximately 10% total shareholder return proposition is combined with an attractive pure-play, state-regulated utility profile characterized by industry-leading ESG credentials and the largest regulated decarbonization investment opportunity in the country, as shown on the next slide.
Our 15-year opportunity is estimated to be over $70 billion, with multiple programs that extend well beyond our five-year plan and skew meaningfully toward rider-style regulated cost of service recovery.
We believe we offer the largest, the broadest in scope, the longest in duration, and the most visible regulated decarbonization opportunity among U.S. utilities.
The successful execution of this plan will benefit our customers, communities, employees, and the environment.
Turning now to earnings.
Our first-quarter 2021 operating earnings, as shown on Slide 6, were $1.09 per share, which included a $0.01 hurt from worse than normal weather in our utility service territories.
This represents our 21st consecutive quarter, so over five years now, of delivering weather-normal quarterly results that meet or exceed the midpoint of our quarterly guidance range.
GAAP earnings for the quarter were $1.23 per share.
The difference between GAAP and operating earnings for the three months ended March 31 was primarily attributable to a net benefit associated with nuclear decommissioning trusts and economic hedging activities, partially offset by other charges.
Turning on to guidance on Slide 7.
As usual, we're providing a quarterly guidance range, which is designed primarily to account for variations from normal weather.
For the second quarter of 2021, we expect operating earnings to be between $0.70 and $0.80 per share.
We are affirming our existing full-year and long-term operating earnings and dividend guidance, as well.
No changes here from prior guidance.
Turning to Slide 8 and briefly on financing.
Since January, we've issued $1.3 billion of long-term debt, consistent with our 2021 financing plan guidance at a weighted average cost of 2.4%.
For avoiding some doubt, there's no change to our prior common equity issuance guidance.
Wrapping up my remarks, let me touch briefly on potential changes to the Federal Tax Code.
Obviously, it's still early days with a lot of unknowns.
But at a high level, we see an increase in the corporate tax rate as being close to neutral on operating earnings based on, as is the case for all regulated entities, the assumed pass-through for cost of service operations, an increase in parent level interest tax shield and the extension and expansion of clean or green tax credits, all of which will be offset by higher taxes on our contracted assets segment earnings.
We also expect modest improvement in credit metrics.
We're monitoring the contemplated minimum tax rules closely and we'd note the administration's support for renewable development suggests the ability to use renewable credits to offset any such minimum tax rule.
More to come over time on that front.
I'll begin with safety.
As shown on Slide 9, through the first three months of 2021, we're tracking closely to the record-setting OSHA rate that we achieved in 2020.
In addition, we're seeing record low levels of lost time and restricted duty cases, which measure more severe incidents.
Of course, the only acceptable number of safety incidents is zero, and we will continue to work toward that critical goal.
Let me provide a few updates around our execution across the strategy.
We're pleased that the 2.6-gigawatt Coastal Virginia offshore wind project has been declared a covered project under Title 41 of the Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act program, also known as FAST 41.
The federal permitting targets now published under that program are consistent with the project schedule that we shared on the fourth-quarter call in February.
Key schedule milestones are shown side by side on Slide 10.
We continue to be encouraged by the current administration's efforts to provide a pathway to timely processing of offshore wind projects.
In the meantime, we're advancing the project as follows: we're processing competitive solicitations for equipment and services to achieve the best possible value for customers and in accordance with the prudency requirements of the VCEA.
Interest in those RFPs has been robust.
We're analyzing performance data from our test turbines, which have been operational for several months now and are, to date, generating at capacity factors that are higher than our initial expectations.
Recall, we had assumed a lifetime capacity factor of around 41% for the full-scale deployment.
Further evaluation of turbine design and wind resource, in addition to the data we're gathering in real time, suggest that our original assumption is too low.
Higher generation would result in lower energy costs for customers.
We're monitoring raw material costs, and it seems to be the case across a number of industries right now, we're observing higher prices.
In the case of steel, for example, the return of pandemic-idled steelmaking capacity hasn't yet caught up to global demand.
We'll continue to monitor raw material cost trends as we move toward procurement later in the project timeline.
We're moving into the detailed design phase for onshore transmission.
As we observed within the industry recently, utility systems are only as good as they are resilient, which is one of the reasons that we made the decision in 2019 to go the extra distance to connect to our 500 kV transmission system to ensure that the project's power will be available when our customers need it most.
We believe that decisions we're making around the onshore engineering configurations will ultimately result in the best value for customers.
And finally, our Jones Act-compliant wind turbine installation vessel is being constructed and is on track for delivery in late 2023.
We expect to announce further details on nonaffiliate vessel charters in the near term.
In summary, lots of very exciting progress, which will continue through the summer, including our expected notice of intent from BOEM in June.
As is typical for a project of this size at this phase of development, there will be some puts and takes as work continues.
Taken as a whole, there's no change to our confidence around the project's expected LCOE range of $80 to $90 per megawatt-hour.
Near the end of the year, we'll file our CPCN and rider applications with the Virginia State Corporation Commission and we'll be in a position at that time to provide additional details around contractor selection and terms, project components, transmission routing, project costs, capacity factors and permitting.
Turning to updates around other select emissions reduction programs.
On solar, on Friday, the Virginia State Corporation Commission approved our most recent clean energy filing, which included 500 megawatts of solar capacity across nine projects, including over 80 megawatts of utility-owned solar, the fourth consecutive such approval.
We also recently issued an RFP for an additional 1,000 megawatts of solar and onshore wind, as well as 100 megawatts of energy storage and 100 megawatts of small-scale solar projects, and eight megawatts of solar to support our community solar program.
Our next clean energy filing, which we expect to include solar and battery storage projects, will take place later this year.
Since our last call, we've continued to derisk our plan to meet the VCEA solar milestone by putting another 30,000 acres of land under option, bringing the total to nearly 100,000 acres of options or exclusive land agreements, which is enough to support the approximately 10 gigawatts of utility-owned solar as called for by the Virginia Clean Economy Act.
The Surry station provides around 15% of the state's total electricity and around 45% of the state's zero-carbon generation.
This authorization is a critical step in ensuring the plant will continue to provide significant environmental and economic benefits for many years to come.
We expect to file with the SEC for rider recovery of relicensing spend late this year for both Surry and North Anna stations.
Our gas distribution business, as we've discussed in the past, our gas utility operations are enhancing sustainability and working to reduce scope on and three emissions, with focused efforts around energy efficiency, renewable natural gas and hydrogen blending, operational modifications, and potential changes around procurement practices.
For example, as part of our recently filed natural gas rate case in North Carolina, we asked the North Carolina Utilities Commission to approve five new sustainability-oriented programs: hydrogen blending pilot, that's part of our goal to be able to blend hydrogen across our entire gas utility footprint by 2030; a new option to allow our customers to purchase RNG attributes; and three new energy efficiency programs.
Finally, in South Carolina.
The South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff recently filed a report finding that our revised IRP met the requirements of the law and the Public Service Commission's order requiring the modified filing.
As a reminder, the preferred plan and the revised filing calls for the retirement of all coal-fired generation in our South Carolina system by the end of the decade, which helps to drive a projected carbon reduction of nearly 60% by 2030 as compared to 2005.
While the IRP is an informational filing, it does not provide approval or disapproval for any specific capital project.
We look forward to continuing to talk with stakeholders, including the commission, about an increasingly low-carbon future.
An order is expected from the Public Service Commission by June 18.
Turning to the regulatory landscape, let me provide a brief update on our Virginia triennial review filing, which we submitted at the end of March.
As shown on Slide 12, the filing highlights Dominion Energy Virginia's exceptionally reliable and affordable service.
The state's careful and thoughtful approach to utility regulation has resulted in a model that prioritizes long-term planning that protects customers from service disruptions and bill shocks.
Consider these facts, 99.9% average reliability delivered at rates that are between 8% and 35% lower than comparable peer groups.
We're proud of our record and the work we do to serve customers every single day.
Our filing also reflects over $200 million of customer arrears forgiveness as directed by the general assembly, relief that is helping our most vulnerable customers address the financial impacts of COVID-19.
The filing also identifies nearly $5 billion of investment in rate base on behalf of our customers over the four-year review period, including $300 million of capital investment in renewable energy and grid transformation projects that we believe meet the eligibility criteria for reinvestment credits for customers.
The commission's procedural schedule is shown here.
We've included additional details regarding the case as filed in the appendix for your review and look forward to engaging with stakeholders in coming months.
It's clear to us that the existing regulatory model is working exceptionally well for customers, communities, and the environment in Virginia.
We're delivering increasingly clean energy while protecting reliability and safeguarding affordability.
In South Carolina, we continue to engage in settlement discussions with the other parties as highlighted in our monthly filings before the commission.
We aren't able to discuss specifics of that process but can report that all parties appear committed to working toward a mutually agreeable resolution.
Finally, let me highlight noteworthy developments in the legislative landscape for our company.
In Virginia, during the now adjourned session, the Virginia General Assembly passed House Bill 1965, which adopts low and zero-emissions vehicle programs that mirror vehicle emission standards in California.
The law, which has been signed by the governor, ensures that more electric vehicles are manufactured and sold in Virginia.
It will likely take a few years before we see the significant and inevitable ramp-up in electric vehicle adoption in our service territory, but we're taking steps today to be prepared for the incremental electric demand and associated infrastructure.
That includes regional coordination with other utilities to ensure highway corridors that ensure seamless charging networks, support for in-territory EV charging infrastructure, which includes a significant investment in a variety of grid transformation projects, as well as the rollout of time-of-use programs.
At the federal level, we're encouraged by the support we're seeing for our offshore wind project.
We applaud efforts to increase funding for the research and development of technologies that will allow the utility industry to drive further carbon emissions reductions.
We're philosophically aligned with the current administration in wanting to accelerate decarbonization across the utility value chain, while also recognizing that the energy we deliver must remain reliable and affordable.
It's still early, but we're engaging in the process of policy formation and monitoring developments closely and continue to believe we are well-positioned to succeed in an increasingly decarbonized world.
I'll conclude the call with the summary on Slide 13.
Our safety performance year to date is tracking closely to our record-setting achievement from last year.
We reported our 21st consecutive quarterly result that normalized for weather, meets or exceeds the midpoint of our guidance range.
We affirmed our existing long-term earnings and dividend guidance.
We're focused on executing across the largest regulated decarbonization investment opportunity in the nation for the benefit of our customers.
And we're aggressively pursuing our vision to be the most sustainable energy company in America.

user
compname announces q1 earnings per share of $1.23.
sees q2 operating earnings per share $0.70 to $0.80.
q1 operating earnings per share $1.09.
q1 gaap earnings per share $1.23.
also affirms its long-term earnings and dividend growth guidance.

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