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Text: Joining us today are Tom O'Hern, chief executive officer; Scott Kingsmore, senior executive vice president and chief financial officer; and Doug Healey, senior executive vice president of leasing.
2020 was an extraordinarily tough year in so many ways for all of us.
Once COVID stormed the U.S. in mid-March, all of our centers closed, and our tenants quit payment.
We quickly adopted significant measures to conserve liquidity, much as we had done during the Great Financial Crisis.
We persevered through those dark days of the second quarter, we got most of our centers opened by mid-summer, and all of our centers opened by early October with no further closures.
It was a herculean effort by the Macerich team, and I'm very proud of their efforts.
There were not a lot of good days, but we battled through it.
Rent collections, for example, during April and May were 35%, that grew to 80% in the third quarter.
And as of today, the fourth-quarter rent collections were at 92% and rising by the week.
2020 was a year of crisis, but we made it through the year, and things are improving by the week.
The COVID daily infection cases are down significantly throughout our markets.
The positivity rate is dropping, and hospitalizations are down significantly compared to a month ago.
We now have two vaccines in distribution with a third on the way.
Currently, 10% of the U.S. population has had at least one dose of the vaccine, and distribution is accelerating.
Not that the COVID battle is over, but it is much, much better than it was even three months ago, some level of normalcies returning, including restaurant dining and going to the mall.
Our shoppers have returned.
In fact, December sales were approaching 85% of pre-COVID levels even in the midst of a surge in COVID cases.
Gradually, restrictions on capacity and indoor dining are being lifted, and that will help both our traffic and our sales.
COVID, among many other things, had the impact of accelerating bankruptcies of dozens of retailers that otherwise likely would have gone into bankruptcy over the next several years but instead, we're accelerated into 2020.
The result is our occupancy level is at 90%, which is the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis.
However, within two years post-GFC, we were back to full occupancy.
We expect a similar recovery post-COVID.
We have worked through most of the bankruptcies from 2020.
And fortunately, the vast majority of those have been reorganizations, not liquidations.
The biggest bankruptcy of the year was JCPenney.
Of our 27 JCPenney locations, only two locations closed, Green Acres and Kings Plaza, both in New York.
I'm happy to report that we have leases out for signature on both of those locations and should be able to make announcements in the very near future.
As you say goodbye to 2020 and gladly watching in the rearview mirror, we are very optimistic about 2021 and the recovery of our business.
Although '21 is going to be a transitional year, it will be much better than 2020 in almost every respect.
Most of the tenant COVID workout agreements will have some impact on us in '21, both in terms of rent relief, as well as higher-than-normal vacancy rates.
That being said, we expect to see occupancy gains in the second half of the year and a gradually improving leasing environment.
Rent collections have improved significantly, up from a September collection rate of 77%, and are now above 90% in the fourth quarter.
January is also trending above 90%.
We have come to agreement on COVID workouts with over 93% of our top 200 tenants.
Leasing activity picked up significantly in the fourth quarter.
Volumes, in fact, were 90% of pre-COVID levels of the fourth quarter of 2019.
We even have a variety of gated attractions that are planning to open this year, including, Candytopia, ModelLand, and the Museum of Ice Cream.
Many of our replacement tenants in the former Sears locations will also open in 2021.
Our 2021 lease expirations are 60% leased today, with the majority of the balance in the letter of intent stage.
Looking at the balance sheet, most of our 2021 loan maturities have been successfully extended, and negotiations are well under way to renew our line of credit, which matures in the third quarter.
Retailer traffic and sales continue to pick up with traffic at 80% of pre-COVID traffic and sales, on average, 85% of pre-COVID levels.
We expect improvements in both traffic and sales as we progress through 2021.
The cost-reductions and cost-containment measures we adopted when COVID hit will be continued into 2021.
And the final point for me, once again, we have been recognized as a leader in sustainability and have achieved the No.
1 Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark Ranking in the North American retail sector.
That makes six straight years for that honor.
Highlights of the financial results for the quarter are as follows.
Funds from operations for the fourth quarter was $0.45.
That's down from the fourth quarter of 2019 at $0.98 per share.
Same-center net operating income for the quarter was down 33%, and year to date is down 22%.
As you will see, these results are unchanged relative to what was filed last week on February 1.
Changes between the fourth quarter of 2020 versus the fourth quarter of 2019 were driven primarily by the continuing impact of COVID-19 and are as follows, and the figures I'm citing are at the company's pro-rata share.
One, $38 million decline from COVID-related rent abatements across permanent and temporary leasing revenue line items.
Fourth-quarter abatements were elevated relative to the third-quarter abatements of $28 million, and this was largely due to the protracted summer closures of several large properties in New York and in California.
This resulted in delayed negotiations with tenants at those properties.
Cumulatively for the year, in 2020, we granted $56 million of abatements.
Number two, $19 million of COVID-related decline in common area and ancillary revenues, including specialty leasing and temporary tenant revenue, percentage rent revenue, business development revenue, and parking revenue.
These declines were generally a continuation of what we experienced in the second and third quarters but were exacerbated in the fourth quarter given the seasonal nature of these types of income.
However, looking forward into '21, we do anticipate growth in each of these more transient income line items, assuming conditions at our properties improve as we do expect.
In total, for all of 2020, these line items were down $43 million.
Number three, general top-line revenue decrease is totaling approximately $12 million, driven primarily by COVID-related occupancy decreases.
Number four, $6 million of bad debt expense in the form of reversals of lease revenue for tenants on a cash basis pursuant to GAAP, that was about $5 million, and then bad debt expenses of about $1 million.
As a result of the COVID-related disruption to our business, the bad debt expense line item was significantly elevated in 2020 at $62 million.
This was a $52 million increase versus $10 million of bad debt expense in 2019.
Number five, there was an $8 million decrease from loss or gain on un-depreciated asset sales or writedowns on consolidated assets.
This included a $5 million impairment charge in the fourth quarter of 2020 for undeveloped land that is currently under contract for sale and is expected to close in 2021.
And lastly, offsetting these items, straight-line rent increased $19 million in the fourth quarter.
This was driven by applying straight-line rent averaging to all rental assistance lease amendments executed during the fourth quarter.
So to summarize some of the major impacts of COVID that impacted real estate NOI in 2020, and again, all these figures are at the company's share, we highlight the following: number one, $56 million of one-time retroactive abatements of rent.
These concessions were granted to local business owners and entrepreneurs, to restaurants and other food uses, and then selected cases to national tenants in order to secure near-term lease expirations and to achieve other landlord favorable concessions.
Number two, a $43 million of decline in common area and ancillary revenues, percentage rent and temporary -- or excuse me, and parking revenues.
Again, these are transient line items, and we would expect those to bounce back.
And number three, we wrote-off an extra $52 million of bad debt expense relative to 2019.
Plus, in addition, we had another $11 million of rent that was reversed for tenants that are accounted for on a cash basis.
So when you add all that up, collectively, it's roughly $162 million of pandemic-driven NOI decline just among those three categories.
2021 FFO is estimated in the range of $2.05 per share to $2.25 per share.
While certain guidance assumptions are provided within our supplemental filing, I'd like to provide some further details.
This guidance range assumes no further government-mandated shutdowns of our retail properties.
We are not providing same-center NOI guidance at this time given continued expected impacts of COVID-19 in early 2021.
But we do anticipate growth in the same-center NOI starting in the third quarter of '21.
And in fact, at this time, we expect strong double-digit growth in the second half of 2021.
Anticipated progress on vaccination efforts, continued fiscal stimulus from the federal government, significant pent-up demand from our market consumers, and softer comparables in the last half of the year informed this thinking for ramped up growth later in 2021.
In terms of FFO by quarter, we estimate the following cadence: 21% in the first quarter, 24% in 2Q, 25% in 3Q, and the balance 30% in the last quarter.
We view 2021 as a transitional year as we pivot away from the disruption and widespread closures caused by COVID during 2020.
We do expect that the first-quarter '21 will include lingering effects of COVID, including from retroactive rent adjustments relating to 2020.
Trough occupancy appears to have been contained to roughly 88%, which we estimate to be at the end of the first quarter.
And we do believe there's an opportunity to grow occupancy later part in the year and certainly over the coming years, which should fuel future operating growth.
Again, more details of the guidance assumptions are included in the company's Form 8-K supplemental financial information.
Now, on to the balance sheet.
As addressed in detail within our recent filings, over the last few months, we have successfully extended four secured mortgage loans, totaling over $660 million for extension terms ranging up to three years.
Those loans included mortgages on Danbury Fair, Fashion Outlets of Niagara, FlatIron Crossing, and Green Acres Mall.
We do anticipate securing similar extensions on remaining mortgages that mature in 2021, including from Green Acres Commons, for which we are currently working on a two-year extension.
In November, the company financed the previously unencumbered Tysons Vita, this is a residential tower at Tysons Corner.
The loan is a $95 million mortgage loan, bearing fixed interest at 3.3% for 10 years.
At closing, this generated $45 million of incremental liquidity to the company, and there is some incremental funding capacity remaining under this line item.
As mentioned in our recent filings, we continue to make progress on the renewal of our line of credit.
Cash on hand at year-end was $555 million.
As Tom previously noted, collection efforts are now over 90%.
This improved collection environment is a direct byproduct of the extensive efforts by a vast many within the company to negotiate thousands of agreements with our retailers.
I can tell you, we are extremely proud of those efforts, as Tom has already noted.
As a result, we do anticipate further improvement in collections into 2021.
And in addition, we estimate the collections of both contractually deferred and delayed rent collections in 2021 that relate to 2020 billed rents in the approximate range of $60 million to $75 million.
During 2021, we expect to generate over $200 million of cash flow from operations, and this is after recurring operating and leasing capital expenditures and after dividend.
This assumption does not include any potential capital generated from dispositions, refinancings, or issuances of common equity.
This operating cash flow surplus will be used to delever the balance sheet, as well as to fund our development pipeline.
And as for development, we expect to spend less than $100 million in 2021, excluding further development expenditures on One Westside, which recall, is independently funded by a construction loan facility.
In the fourth quarter, much of our focus, again, was working with retailers to secure rental payments and improve our collection rates.
Looking at our top 200 rent-paying national retailers, we now have commitments with 176, which is up considerably from last quarter.
But more importantly, we now have received payments, or we've worked out deals totaling 93% of the total rent these top 200 pay.
And as a result, our collections continued to improve.
As of today, collection rates increased to 89% in the third quarter and 92% in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Occupancy at the end of the third quarter was 89.7%, that's down 110 basis points from last quarter and down 4.3% from a year ago.
This is primarily due to store closures from the unprecedented amount of bankruptcies and early abandonments that occurred throughout 2020.
Temporary occupancy was 5.9%, and that's down 50 basis points from this time last year.
Trailing 12-month leasing spreads were a negative 3.6%, and that's down from 4.9% last quarter and down from 4.7% in 2019.
Average rent for the portfolio was $61.87 as of December 31, 2020, and this represents a 1.3% increase compared to $61.06 as of December 31, 2019, and a 0.7% decrease compared to $62.29 at September 30, 2020.
2021 lease expirations continue to be an important focal point.
And to date, we have commitments on 60% of our expiring square footage, with another 40%, or the balance, in the letter of intent stage, disregarding tenants who have closed or have indicated they intend to close.
In the fourth quarter, we signed 217 leases for 900,000 square feet.
This represents 80% more leases and 1.5 times the square footage when compared to the third quarter of 2020.
This also represents 90% of the square footage that we signed in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Noteworthy leases signed in the fourth quarter include Athleta at Danbury Fair, Louis Vuitton at Scottsdale Fashion Square, Swarovski at La Encantada and Los Cerritos, Madison Reed at SanTan, four renewals with Sephora at Eastland, FlatIron Crossing, Vintage Faire, and Pacific View, as well as a five-store package with Charming Charlie's at Green Acres, FlatIron, Fresno, La Encantada, and Pacific View.
Turning to openings in the fourth quarter.
We opened 59 new tenants in 236,000 square feet, resulting in a total annual rent of over $10 million.
Henckels at Fashion Outlets of Chicago.
In the international arena, we opened another three stores with Lovisa at Deptford Mall, Queens Center, and Kings Plaza, along with Quay Australia at Los Cerritos.
In the large-format category, we opened DICK's Sporting Goods at Vintage and Round 1 at Deptford Mall, both in former Sears locations.
The digitally native and emerging brands continue to open bricks-and-mortar stores.
In the fourth quarter, we opened Amazon 4-Star and Madison Reed at 29th Street, Amazon Books at Los Cerritos, and Purple at Tysons Corner.
Now, let's move to 2021 and our pipeline.
Our pipeline remains strong, vibrant, and exciting.
We already have signed leases totaling approximately 494,000 square feet, all scheduled to open in 2021, and this list continues to grow.
Later this year, we look forward to opening an amazing two-level, 11,000-square-foot flagship Dior store at Scottsdale Fashion Square, the first and only Dior in all of Arizona.
And joining Dior will be Louis Vuitton Men, further marking Scottsdale Fashion Square as the one and only true luxury destination in the market, and the state for that matter.
Primark is well under construction and will open its highly anticipated 50,000 square foot store at Fashion District Philadelphia in September of this year.
Other impactful openings to look forward to this year include Dave & Buster's at Vintage Faire, Kids Empire, and Madison Reed at SanTan, Tyra Banks' ModelLand at Santa Monica Place, XLanes at Fresno Fashion Fair, San Bernardino County offices at Inland Center, Bourbon & Bones at SanTan Village, Cooper's Hawk Winery at Boulevard Shops, Shake Shack at 29th Street, Uncle Julio's at South Plains, Faherty at Village of Corte Madera, Lucid Motors at Tysons Corner, and Scottsdale Fashion Square and Marine Layer at Broadway Plaza.
And that's just to name a few.
And when we look at deals still in lease negotiation, we have yet another 435,000 square feet to open in 2021, and this number grows daily.
Lastly, I'm often asked during this unprecedented time of bankruptcies and store closures, who's left to fill this space?
What we need to remember is this pandemic only accelerated the demise of those retailers who are already struggling pre-pandemic.
What's not talked about are those retailers who were strong going into the pandemic and actually came out stronger on the other end.
Perhaps it's because they had great product and offered great value or perhaps it's because they had strong omnichannel business and used their online strategy to actually increase customer awareness and acquisition.
Think Lululemon, DICK'S Sporting Goods, Target, Peloton, and Blue Nile, and there are so many others.
Or how about the strong traditional retailers with significant open-to-buys looking to capitalize on some great new available space in some of the best centers in the country?
I'm talking about retailers such as Aerie, Madewell, Free People, Levi's, Sephora, Arhaus, Aritzia, Old Navy, Athleta, just to name a few.
Or brand extensions such as Offline by American Eagle, Gilly Hicks by Abercrombie & Fitch, or DICK's Sporting Goods' new experiential concept.
Or new and emerging brands like Alo Yoga, Faherty, Psycho Bunny, and Tonal or new electric car manufacturers such as Lucid, Polestar, and VinFast.
And we're deep in discussions with all these retailers and many, many more.
However, we know our shoppers want more than just traditional retail.
And that's why we continue to focus on bringing alternative uses to our campuses and not just retail, uses like office, residential, hospitality, medical, wellness, education, fitness, grocery, service, and even storage.
And that's why we continue to refer to our properties as town centers because that's what they're becoming.
They're transformational, and they'll be something for everyone.
And they have to be because that's what our modern-day shopper wants.

user
compname posts quarterly ffo per share $0.45 excluding items.
quarterly ffo per share $0.45 excluding items.
mall portfolio occupancy was 89.7% at december 31, 2020 compared to 94.0% at december 31, 2019.
sees 2021 ffo per share-diluted $2.05 - $2.25.

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