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Text: With me on the call today is Intrepid's co-founder, executive chairman, president and CEO, Bob Jornayvaz.
These statements are based on the information available to us today, and we assume no obligation to update them.
These risks and uncertainties are described in our periodic reports filed with the SEC, which are incorporated here by reference.
During today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operational measures.
Solid cash flow and EBITDA highlighted our fourth quarter and put a positive end on a unique year.
The encouraging trends we saw emerging in the fourth quarter are continuing into spring as commodity markets show strength across both our fertilizer and oilfield segments.
The last couple of months, we have seen gradual yet sustained improvements in our ability to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, we are optimistic that the good news will continue as cities begin to relax restrictions now that significant portions of our most vulnerable populations are protected.
We wish the world well.
Our nutrient business ended the year with significant momentum and hasn't slowed down in the first quarter.
We called the bottom in the potash market on our November earnings call and recent pricing and demand has exceeded our expectations.
We announced another potash price increase in February, up $50 per ton, increasing our posted potash prices $140 per ton above summer fill levels.
Trio has also seen strong demand and has currently posted $60 per ton higher than the summer fill values.
Customers have been eager to secure product as prices continue to move up and have locked in some volumes through second quarter with additional spot buying occurring throughout the spring and farmers who are eager to replenish nutrients at today's crop prices.
Strong commodity pricing in soybeans, corn, wheat, palm oil, sugar, cotton and bottoms in the cocoa market in the coffee market, all in strength to a continuing global demand.
During the fourth quarter, we continue to position ourselves to capitalize on the return of the oilfield demand in the Delaware Basin, leading ESG initiatives with a clear emphasis on full cycle water management.
Full cycle water management means minimizing traditional source water use and produced water disposal with environmentally friendly treated produced water recycling.
With environmental and sustainability goals, front and center for so many oil and gas management teams, regulatory bodies and governments, the need for responsible and innovative use and reuse of water is the key to capturing the full potential of the Delaware Basin.
Intrepid is uniquely positioned with its variety of assets and water rights in Southeast New Mexico, to become a leader in the space, touching every aspect of the market from fresh and brine water delivery to recycled and produced water handling and disposal.
We are in the early stages of construction of a produced water disposal system adjacent to our South Ranch and should have our first produced water well drilled in the first half of this year.
As we finalize our capital plans, we are also working on minimum volume commitments with operators that will provide a solid base of demand to support our investments.
We expect to produce water well will cost approximately $2 million and will complete incremental capital for the surface facility at the appropriate time.
Total capital for our first well and surface facilities is estimated at $7 million.
We expect additional wells can be added as demand and volume commitments require at a cost of approximately $2 million each.
In addition to produced water, we're investing in recycling infrastructure and expanding our capabilities to deliver the services and products necessary to operate in an increasingly ES&G focused environment.
We are currently in talks with multiple companies about partnering in new and exciting areas of oilfield and full cycle water management business that will leverage our unique position and inherent optionality of our Intrepid freshwater and brine water assets across the Northern Delaware Basin.
The Northern Delaware is full of long-term-focused, well capitalized operators, and we are seeing many of these operators revisit their expectations for 2021 as oil prices have improved significantly in recent months.
Frac demand is increasing and source water demands per completion are higher than ever.
During the first quarter, we sourced water from third parties had positive margins to supplement our own water rights and existing infrastructure to meet the increasing volume requirements of operators.
Our strong relationships with those operators and our ability to meet significant refresh rights sets us apart from many other source water providers in the Delaware Basin.
The next few quarters are pivotal for Intrepid, as we will execute on our strategy to expand our oil and gas midstream business in the Delaware Basin and tap into the significant opportunity that full cycle water management offers.
Proper water management and the ability to provide operators with a single source capable of meeting both their operating and ESG goals will be essential in unlocking the potential value of this business over the coming months.
Our fourth quarter was highlighted by strong improvements in earnings and EBITDA compared to the third quarter as good fertilizer fundamentals and an improving oilfield outlook drove increased gross margin across all our business segments.
We recorded fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $9.7 million, an increase of over $8 million compared to the third quarter of 2020.
As Bob noted, the potash market really took off in the fourth quarter with three announced price increases, good weather across the country and rising commodity prices.
Customers look to replenish potash inventories after a strong fall application season that was evidenced by the 78,000 tons of potash sold in the quarter up significantly from the prior year.
Looking toward 2021, we still expect first half potash volumes to exceed prior year by about 5% to 10% despite the large volumes in the fourth quarter.
Average net realized sales price will continue to increase into the second quarter as we've layered in ag sales at varying price levels throughout the spring.
We have fully realized the fourth quarter price increases in our second quarter volumes and expect some additional spot tons at our current pricing.
All said, we expect our net realized pricing to increase from $248 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 300 to $310 per ton for the second quarter of 2021, with the first-quarter net realized sales price about halfway between the two.
Going forward, we continue to focus significant effort on expanding our specialty potash sales, specifically into the premium armory and feed markets, areas where we saw significant growth in 2020.
For the trio segment, our domestic market saw great early season demand in the fourth quarter as we continue to grow sales in key markets throughout the U.S., total fourth quarter sales volumes were down slightly compared to last year.
Due to large international sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Our posted price is now up $60 per ton compared to the summer fill levels, and we are seeing good subscription at current pricing into the spring.
We expect our net realized sales price will increase to approximately 220 to $230 per ton in the first quarter and 230 to $240 per ton in the second quarter of 2021.
The oilfield segment improved significantly over Q3 as water sales increased from our higher-margin sources and contracts, benefiting the bottom line.
Total water sales, including byproducts, were $5.8 million in Q4 an increase of $2.2 million compared to the third quarter of 2020.
Operators are adding more crews than they expected just a few months ago and commodity pricing is clearly supportive of the world-class reserves in the Northern Delaware Basin.
Our debt position is unchanged since the third quarter with $55 million outstanding, of which $10 million relates to the PPP loan.
Our forgiveness application is being reviewed by the SBA with our 90-day review period ending in April.
Availability under our credit facility was $20 million at year-end.
Cash flow from operations was $12.7 million in the fourth quarter and $31 million for the full year.
2020 capital investment ended the year at $16.4 million.
We estimate 2021 capital investment of 25 to 35 million, of which 12 to 15 million will be sustaining capital with the remainder as potential opportunity capital projects.
We have significant discretion over our opportunity capital investments in 2021, and we may adjust our investment plans as our expectations for 2021 change.
With a strong early start to the spring season, our cash position today is $28 million with no change in our outstanding debt from year-end.
Operator, we're ready to take questions.

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q4 sales $5.8 million.

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