text: Scenario 1  Central Scenario 
  
  Illustrative Scenario 1 estimates that the prison population will rise to 87,100 
  by the end of June 2015 and then fall to 81,400 by the end of June 2020. 
  
  Illustrative Scenario 2 estimates that the prison population will rise to 88,900 
  by the end of June 2015 and to 98,900 by the end of June 2020. 
  
  The projected trends reflect the cumulative impacts of the various sentencing, 
  legislative and procedural assumptions that are used to generate the 
  projections. The seasonal pattern reflects the dip in the prison population 
  which is always seen around the Christmas period. 
  
  In the Central Scenario, the prison population is expected to rise to 90,200 by 
  June 2020. The projected population increase is largely due to the recent 
  trends in case mix where we have seen more serious cases come before the 
  courts. This results in offenders receiving longer custodial sentence lengths, 
  which in turn places an upward pressure on the prison population. The growth 
  in this scenario is largely driven by the rise in the determinate population 
  which is projected to grow to 60,200 by June 2020. This is partially due to the 