text: Before discussing the trend implied by this chart, it is important first to sense-check the general 
  level of new users implied. Analysis from the previous section suggested that the number of 
  new OCUs for 2013 was unlikely to be much higher than 10,000 with only a proportion of those 
  involved with crime. The 2013 estimate implied by Model 1 is 8,290 and for Model 2 it is 5,092, 
  so both are in line with the earlier analysis. The NDTMS data only covers England, not England 
  and Wales, and our estimates will of course miss any OCUs who never come to treatment. 
  Hence the estimates for both models may be slightly conservative in that sense. But putting all 
  the partial evidence together, it can be said with a degree of certainty that the total number of 
  individuals who begin using opiates or crack-cocaine each year is probably not markedly higher 
  than 10,000, and that fewer than half of these are likely to be involved in significant amounts of 
  acquisitive crime. 
  
  To put this into historical context, an incidence rate of 10,000 works out at a rate of 0.18 
  individuals per 1,000 population. Published estimates of incidence in Manchester during the 
  epidemic period of the late 1980s and early 1990s included rates above two per 1,000 
  population, i.e. more than 11 times higher (Millar et al., 2001). 