text: **MARINE PROJECTIONS**
  **Sea level rise. Storm surge. Past event case studies.**
  
  Sea-level rise projections will extend to 2100 and will include contributions from glaciers, 
  ice sheets, freshwater reservoirs, groundwater and thermal expansion. Outputs will include 
  an estimate of the year-to-year changes in sea level rise and a “plausible but highly unlikely” 
  scenario known as H++. A new feature of UKCP18 will be assessing the credibility of making 
  sea level rise projections to 2300. The projections will use the latest information from the 
  CMIP5 models and application of the methods used in the Intergovernmental Panel on 
  Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report10. 
  
  The UKCP09 storm surge projections will be updated to provide new estimates of the change 
  in high water levels over the 21st Century. These estimates will be based on a combination of 
  projected mean sea level change and projections of change in the extremes due to changes in 
  atmospheric storminess. These “storminess” projections will use the same surge model used 
  in operational weather forecasting, using the wind and pressure from the CMIP5 ensemble to 
  drive the surge. New understanding of the modification of large-scale sea level change signals 
  as they pass from the open ocean onto the shelf sea around the UK will be incorporated into 
  the UKCP18 marine projections. UKCP18 will also include storm surge historical case studies 
  derived from applying plausible future sea level change to historical extreme events. 