text: The analysis showed that of the 149 Drug Action Team areas in England, 72 per cent had 
  decreases in new OCU treatment numbers in the year to September 2014 compared to the 
  previous year. Furthermore, of the 42 areas showing an increase, only 11 also showed a rise for 
  the 12 months to September 2010 compared with the 12 months to September 2014, and most 
  of these involved small numbers of individuals. 
  
  Overall then, the very recent data on treatment presentations do not currently suggest that the 
  number of new OCUs is on the verge of increasing, merely that it flattened for a period. 
  
  A number of factors could explain the flattening. Most importantly, if there was some sort of 
  shock that caused a one-off reduction in the lag-time to treatment this could make it appear as if 
  incidence was rising when in fact new users may be falling but a greater percentage may simply 
  be turning up to treatment faster. Such a shock may have occurred given the reduction in heroin 
  supply seen from the end of 2010 through to 2012 (see Ahmad et al,. 2016). If users unable to 
  obtain heroin used this enforced abstinence as a spur to seek treatment and hence to present to 
  treatment services earlier than they otherwise would have done, this could cause a one-off 
  ‘concertina effect’ in which treatment numbers initially flatten or even rise but then fall again. 
  This would also explain why the downward trend has apparently resumed: evidence suggests 
  the reduction in supply has also ended. 