text: 2°C, although the geographical variation is still dominated by the non-climatic factors (ﬁgure 7). 
  Therefore, the ensemble-mean change is a reasonable guide to the results. 
  
  The ensemble mean is higher in nearly all assessed countries relative to the baseline (ﬁgure 8). 
  The greatest increase was in Oman, followed by India, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia, then Brazil 
  and a number of its neighbouring countries. Smaller increases in HCVI were seen across Africa. 
  Southeastern Africa showed larger increases than Central Africa. The HCVI decreased in three 
  countries: Mali, Burkino Faso and Sudan. 
  
  The ensemble members showed broadly consistent changes in HCVI at 2°C global warming, 
  with increases in most assessed countries and generally similar sets of countries experiencing the 
  largest and smallest changes. Southeastern Africa consistently showed larger increases in HCVI 
  than Central Africa, due to increased length of drought events projected in all ensemble members 
  (not shown). The length of ﬂood events was not projected to increase in this region. The Sahel 
  region consistently showed one or more countries with a small decrease in the HCVI, although 
  the precise country or countries varied between ensemble members. The decrease in HCVI here 
  was due to projected decreases in length of drought, with length of ﬂood events projected to 
  change little. 