text: **Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020**
  
  The assumptions used are based on consultation with policy and operational 
  experts at the Ministry of Justice and the National Offender Management 
  Service. They also take into account observed data trends: 
  
   These projections represent a change from last year where the 2013 
  Scenario 2 (central) saw the population gradually falling over the six 
  year lifetime of the projection. The Central Scenario in the projections 
  this year shows the population rising over the next six years. This 
  change arises from the fact that the latest projections capture a recent 
  upward trend in prosecutions of more serious offences. 
  
   Despite the fact that overall crime is falling there has been an increase 
  
  in recorded crime for certain offence types: 
  
  o Prosecutions for sexual offences are the highest in the decade 
  and increased by 19% in the 12 months ending June 2014, in 
  line with a 21% increase in recorded crime. Offenders 
  sentenced for sexual offences had an Average Custodial 
  Sentence Length (ASCL) of 59.7 months, a rise of 2.4 months, 
  compared with year ending June 2013. 
  
  o Violence against the person proceedings for indictable offences 
  have increased by 7% in the 12 months ending June 2014. This 
  is in line with an 11% increase in recorded crime. 