text: **5. Previous Projections**
  
  At the end of September 2014 the published prison population was within 1.8 
  % of the 2013 Scenario 2 (central) projection, and within 3.4 % of the 2013 
  Scenario 1 projection and 0.2 % of the 2013 Scenario 3 projection. This does 
  not indicate which scenario the actual prison population will track going 
  forward. 
  
  Differences between the 2013 projections and the actual population could be 
  explained by changes, different to those projected, in overall demand, offence 
  mix, age and gender of defendants, court routes, custody rates or sentence 
  lengths. 
  
  Chart 3 plots the 2014 Central Scenario projection against the three 2013 
  prison population projections. The 2014-2020 Central Scenario projection is 
  above all three scenarios from last year. The higher level of the new 
  projections can be attributed to a more serious case mix coming into the 
  courts with a resulting increase in average custodial sentence lengths. The 
  projection for June 2019 in the Central Scenario this year is 10.2 % above the 
  equivalent scenario (Scenario 2) last year. 
  
  **Chart 3: Comparing 2013 and 2014 projections (November 2014 – December**
  **2020)**
  
  **Total Prison Population**
  **Prison population projections from November 2014 to December 2020**
  95,000 