text: This report has attempted to draw together available data and evidence to estimate the number 
  of new opiate/crack-cocaine users (OCUs) per year in England since 2005 and then to look 
  briefly at their characteristics. This is important as previous research has suggested that – 
  mostly through the actions of a minority - this group has the potential to have a large impact on 
  crime trends and therefore to impose significant societal costs. 
  
  Though data on this population is imperfect, a number of different data sources and 
  methodologies are available to estimate OCU incidence. From these, three key conclusions 
  emerge: 
  
   The number of new opiate/crack users is clearly far lower now than it was in the 1980s 
  
  and early 1990s and has even dropped 20-45% since 2005. 
  
   This means numbers of new users in 2013 may be around 5,000-8,000 with an 
  
  approximate upper bound of 10,000; and numbers involved with prolific criminality will be 
  lower still. 
  
   The downward trend in new OCUs has flattened since about 2011, but available data do 
  not suggest that this is the precursor to a new increase. If anything, the downward trend 
  may resume in 2014, though the situation requires further monitoring. 