text: **3b) Accounting for the impacts of circumstance, legislation, and for**
  **seasonal effects**
  
  The raw, unadjusted prison population projections are subject to model 
  adjustments to show the impact of certain provisions in the Offender 
  Rehabilitation Act 2014, changes at the Verne and the ROTL review. Model 
  adjustments are also used to account for seasonal variation in the population. 
  Model adjustments have been applied equally to all the scenarios modelled. 
  
  The Home Office is to gain access to all 580 places at the Verne IRC by 
  January 2015. The estimated impacts have been applied to the non-criminal 
  projection in the model. 
  
  Provisions in the Offender Rehabilitation Act 2014 will mean that offenders 
  sentenced to custodial sentences of less than 12 months will be released 
  subject to licence (in the same way as offenders currently released from 