text: Turning to the trend implied by Figure 9: both models imply that numbers of new OCUs in 2013 
  are lower than in 2005. Model 1 implies that they have fallen by around a fifth during that period 
  and Model 2 suggests a fall of around 45%. But secondly, the way the methodology works 
  means that the most recent years are the least reliable because they use the least amount of 
  data. This is why the distance between the estimates from the two models widens for the more 
  recent years. It means that it is difficult to say for certain whether the period of flattening from 
  2011 onwards, which occurs in both estimated trends but is more obvious in Model 1, is a blip in 
  an otherwise downward trend or the start of a turning point. Either way, a flattening of the trend 