text: **3. Modelling methodology and projection scenarios**
  
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              [html]<thead><tr><td>projections model is part of wider work within the Ministry of Justice a consistent and coherent sule of models of the criminal courts der management, driven by common projections of demand for the Justice ’ s services.</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>dial convictions model uses projections of numbers of defendants ne criminal courts. In order to project volumes of defendants being stisticdial sentence, it also takes into account :</td></tr><tr><td>age, gender and offence of defendants entering the system ;</td></tr><tr><td>flow of cases through the courts ; and</td></tr><tr><td>• sentences which concluded cases attract.</td></tr><tr><td>spopulation projections model takes projections of custodials, converts them to projections of prison receptions and then models to of time that cifenders spend in prison to calculate the resulting oulation.</td></tr><tr><td>Theoretical are that it allows us to :</td></tr><tr><td>Diability project custodial convictions ( rather than just convictions );</td></tr><tr><td>deratand the Criminal Justice System factors which contribute to ange in the proor population, such as time served, sentences given, al and sentencing court changes or shifts in deferidant mographics ; and</td></tr><tr><td>easily model the impact on the prison population of specific nistry of Justice and other Criminal Justice Agency policy changes ating to specific offences or specific senteroes.</td></tr><tr><td>B provides details of the methods used to produce the prison projections and the assumptions behind them.</td></tr><tr><td>Informing these projections, and therefore the projections are subject to significant uncertainty. This is represented by the sarios, with each scenario being only as likely as the assumptions mit.</td></tr><tr><td>used for generating projections of the prison population in not Wales for the 2014 – 2020 projections is consistent with the used to generate the 2013 – 2019 projections published on 7 – 2013.</td></tr></tbody>
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