text: **Data availability**
  The historical weather data (1986–2005) that support the analysis with ESMs in this study are publicly available 
  online at https:// data. giss. nasa. gov/ impac ts/ agmip cf/; the future climate scenario data (2006–2099) that support 
  the analysis with ESMs in this study are publicly available online at https:// pcmdi. llnl. gov/? cmip5 and https:// 
  esgf- node. llnl. gov/ proje cts/ esgf- llnl/. The spatial data of harvest area, yield, crop calendar, irrigation portion 
  and chemical N input for maize that support the simulation with crop model (DSSAT) in this study are publicly 
  available at http:// mapsp am. info/ (SPAM) and http:// www. sage. wisc. edu (SAGE); the soil data that support the 
  simulation with crop model (DSSAT) in this study are publicly available from the WISE database (https:// www. 
  isric. online/ index. php/) and the Digital Soil Map of the World (DSMW) (http:// www. fao. org/ land- water/ land/ 
  land- gover nance/ land- resou rces- plann ing- toolb ox/ categ ory/ detai ls/ en/c/ 10265 64/). All other relevant data are 
  available from the corresponding authors. 