text: **Materials and methods**
  **Data processing.**
  In this study, historical daily weather data (1986–2005) are from the AgMERRA dataset. 
  AgMERRA is a post-processing of the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 
  (MERRA) data. The dataset is proved to be suitable for agricultural modelling and features consistent, daily 
  time-series data45. 
  
  For future (2020–2099), the original climate scenario data (Table 1) were extracted from output archives of 
  five ESMs (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) 
  under four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) retrieved from the CMIP website. The climate scenario data 
  was interpolated into 0.5° × 0.5° horizontal resolution and bias-corrected with respect to historical observations 
  to remove systematic errors46. The data of maize-planting regions are from the gridded global dataset in 2000 
  by combining two data products47,48. 