text: **Key points**
  
  This bulletin presents projections of the prison population in England and 
  Wales from November 2014 to December 2020. The prison population 
  projections are based on assumptions about future custodial convictions and 
  incorporate the anticipated impacts of agreed policy and procedural initiatives. 
  
  The “Central Scenario” estimates that the prison population will increase from 
  the current position 85,9251 to 87,700 by June 2015. By the end of June 2020 
  the prison population is projected to be 90,200. This Central Scenario is our 
  best estimate based on the available information. The projected prison 
  population under our Central Scenario is shown in Chart 1. 
  
  The prison population projections are produced using a model of flows of 
  offenders into and out of prison which counts the resulting prison population 
  each month. 
  
  **Chart 1: Projected prison population (Central Scenario)**