text: Figure 2. A simplified example of (Bayesian) inference of one’s heart rate. First panel: simulated time series of heartbeat observations. Second panel: 
  Shannon surprise of a generative model composed of a fixed prior about heart rate (a Gaussian with a mean of 67 and a precision of 0.11) and a 
  likelihood (a Gaussian centered on the current heart rate with an additional bias of 15 pulses, with various precisions that vary between 0.47 and 10, 
  see the legend). Third panel: Bayesian surprise, which measures the discrepancy between posterior and prior probabilities over time. Bottom panels: 
  the two series of panels are organized in two (left and right) columns, which show the first five time steps of inference for the two cases with high 
  precision (of 10) and low precision (of 0.1) of the likelihood, respectively. See the main text for an explanation and online article for colored version of 
  this figure. 