text: The third panel shows the Bayesian surprise (or the Kullback- 
  Leibler divergence between posterior and prior probability distri- 
  butions) over time. This is a measure of how much dissimilar the 
  posterior and the prior are, and it always decreases as a result of 
  inference, but note that it decreases much more rapidly when the 
  precision of the likelihood is 10, which is another indication that 
  the posterior is “overfitting,” meaning that the inference result is 
  excessively biased by the likelihood distribution. 
  
  Finally, the two bottom series of panels are organized in two 
  (left and right) columns, which show the first five time steps of 
  inference for the two cases with high precision (of 10) and low pre- 
  cision (of 0.1) of the likelihood, respectively. In these plots, the prior 
  distributions are in blue, the posterior distributions are in green, 
  and the likelihoods are in red. It is possible to note that in the left 
  (high precision) panels, the posterior inference closely follows the 
  likelihood (it “overfits”) after five time steps and the inferred heart 
  rate is slightly biased (i.e. it is 79). Differently, in the right (low 
  precision) panels, the inference converges much slower to a high 
  precision posterior, but without overfitting. 