New opiate and crack-cocaine users: characteristics and trends 3 
 
Summary 
Executive summary 
This paper uses a range of datasets and methodologies to: 
 obtain working estimates for the number of individuals in England who started using 
opiates/crack from 2005 to 2013;1 
 examine the characteristics of these individuals. 
The main findings of the paper are as follows. 
 It is estimated that around 5,000 to 8,000 individuals started using opiates or crack-
cocaine in 2013. There is a high degree of uncertainty around this figure due to the 
sparse data on this population, but sense-checks based on treatment and criminal justice 
system data suggest the true figure is unlikely to be much larger than 10,000.   
 Data also suggest that the number of current opiate/crack initiates involved with crime 
may be even lower. The number of arrestees testing positive for the first time for opiates 
(or for both opiates and crack-cocaine) dropped from 14,750 in 2006 to 4,281 in the first 
11 months of 2013, a fall of around 70 per cent2. Furthermore, of the new positive testers 
in 2013, only 721 were aged 18–24.3 Though this arrestee data will capture only a 
proportion of the true population, it does suggest that the number of new, young initiates 
involved with crime – those who have the potential to inflict most societal harm – has 
decreased markedly, probably just to a few thousand per year; and that this group now 
make up a small minority of the total number of opiate/crack-cocaine users (estimated to 
be 294,000 in 2011/12), most of whom are older, longer-term users.   
 In terms of trends in new opiate/crack-cocaine users, all available data suggest that 
figures have dipped by at least a fifth since 2005 and have dropped hugely since the late 
1980s and early 1990s when the opiate/crack-cocaine population in the UK grew very 
rapidly. The current estimate works out at a rate of 0.18 per 1,000 population. During the 
epidemic years, published estimates of new opiate/crack-cocaine users in Manchester 
and Bolton show rates more than 11 times larger. 
 However, the findings also suggest that between 2011 and early 2014, the number of 
new opiate/crack-cocaine users stopped decreasing and instead stabilised at a 
(historically) low level. Further analysis was conducted to try and determine whether this 
was a precursor to a new rise in initiates. Though the data are not totally conclusive, the 
results suggest that a marked increase in new opiate/crack-cocaine users in the near 
future is unlikely. If anything, findings suggested that the downward trend may be set to 
resume. 
 Analysis also revealed some possible changes in characteristics of the new opiate/crack-
cocaine initiates. There is a trend in the treatment data towards new initiates coming to 
treatment earlier in their drug-using careers than previous cohorts and also to have 
 
1 At the time of writing, data was unavailable for the period after November 2013. 
2  It is 68 per cent if the 2013 figure is adjusted to correct for the missing month of data. 
3  787 if adjusted for the missing month.