Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
Key points 
This bulletin presents projections of the prison population in England and 
Wales from November 2014 to December 2020. The prison population 
projections are based on assumptions about future custodial convictions and 
incorporate the anticipated impacts of agreed policy and procedural initiatives. 
The “Central Scenario” estimates that the prison population will increase from 
the current position 85,9251 to 87,700 by June 2015. By the end of June 2020 
the prison population is projected to be 90,200. This Central Scenario is our 
best estimate based on the available information. The projected prison 
population under our Central Scenario is shown in Chart 1. 
The prison population projections are produced using a model of flows of 
offenders into and out of prison which counts the resulting prison population 
each month.  
Chart 1: Projected prison population (Central Scenario) 
Total Prison Population
Prison population projections from November 2014 to December 2020
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
Nov-14
Mar-15 Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16 Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17 Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18 Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Jul-20 Nov-20
Month End
Prison Population
Central Scenario
 
The Central Scenario has been modelled assuming custodial convictions are 
broadly in line with recent trends and average length of sentence to be flat 
based on recent trends.  
The projections do not attempt to estimate the impact of any future 
Government policy that is yet to achieve Royal Assent, and therefore become 
less certain over time. 
                                                 
1 As at 21 November 2014: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison- population-figures-2014 
2