20rsta.royalsocietypublishing.orgP h i l .T r a n s .R .S o c .A376:20160452 ........................................................
IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM2M HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-MR
–2 –1 0 1 2
°C
ensemble mean
MIROC-ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
Figure14. Differenceinannualmaximumdailymaximumtemperaturebetween2 °Cand1.5 °Cglobalwarming,forindividual
ensemblemembersandensemblemean.
IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM2M HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-MR
–20 –10 0 10 20
% days
ensemble mean
MIROC-ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
Figure15. Differencebetween2 °Cand1.5 °Cglobalwarmingforpercentageofdayswithmaximumtemperatureabove90th
percentileofbaseline,forindividualensemblemembersandensemblemean.
possible outcomes projected here, the differences between 2°C and 1.5°C are not always clear. The
differences between 2°C and 1.5°C are not always in the same direction as the changes at 2°C; in
the Amazon, for example, the difference in ﬂow between 2°C and 1.5°C varies from positive to
negative between ensemble members.