Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
Table A10: Projected male 21 years and over prison population (end of June 
figures) 
Scenario Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2
Jun-15 76,500 77,100 78,700 47,400 48,200 49,800
Jun-16 75,800 78,300 82,000 46,800 49,500 53,300
Jun-17 74,400 78,500 83,700 45,900 50,400 55,700
Jun-18 73,200 78,900 85,800 45,200 51,300 58,200
Jun-19 72,200 79,300 87,500 44,600 52,000 60,300
Jun-20 71,100 79,400 88,700 44,000 52,600 62,000
Scenario Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2
Jun-15 11,700 11,700 11,700 10,800 10,200 9,600
Jun-16 11,200 11,200 11,200 10,800 10,200 9,600
Jun-17 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,800 10,200 9,500
Jun-18 10,100 10,100 10,100 10,800 10,200 9,600
Jun-19 9,600 9,600 9,600 10,900 10,200 9,600
Jun-20 9,200 9,200 9,200 10,800 10,200 9,600
Scenario Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2
Jun-15 4,900 5,200 5,800 1,700 1,700 1,700
Jun-16 5,200 5,500 6,100 1,700 1,700 1,700
Jun-17 5,300 5,600 6,100 1,700 1,700 1,700
Jun-18 5,300 5,600 6,100 1,700 1,700 1,700
Jun-19 5,300 5,600 6,100 1,700 1,700 1,700
Jun-20 5,300 5,600 6,100 1,700 1,700 1,700
Recall Non Criminal
Males 21 years and over
Total Population Determinates
Indeterminates Remand
 
Table A11: Projected male 18-20 years old prison population (end of June 
figures) 
Scenario 1 Central Scenario 2
Jun-15 5,700 5,700 5,300
Jun-16 6,300 5,900 4,900
Jun-17 6,200 5,900 4,700
Jun-18 6,200 5,900 4,800
Jun-19 6,100 5,900 4,800
Jun-20 6,000 5,900 4,800
Sentencing Scenarios
 
 
 
 
 
 
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