Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
 assumptions regarding future parole hearing frequency and expected 
outcomes for indeterminate sentences;  
 the Home Office gaining access to all 580 places at the Verne IRC by 
January 2015; 
 the impacts of the Offender Rehabilitation Act 2014, whereby offenders 
with custodial sentences of less than 12 months will be released 
subject to licence and a new post-sentence supervision period 
following licence for offenders released from custodial sentences of 
less than 2 years;  
 the impacts of the ROTL review deciding that all offenders who have 
previously absconded will no longer be allowed to return to the open 
estate or be released on temporary licence except in exceptional 
circumstances; 
The scenarios modelled are not predictions of what will happen to the prison 
population, but rather indications of what the prison population would look like 
if scenario conditions were to be fulfilled. 
Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 do not represent bounds on our central projection 
of the prison population, nor do they represent the likelihood of changes above 
or below our central projection. 
 
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