New opiate and crack-cocaine users: characteristics and trends 30 
 
Conclusion 
This report has attempted to draw together available data and evidence to estimate the number 
of new opiate/crack-cocaine users (OCUs) per year in England since 2005 and then to look 
briefly at their characteristics. This is important as previous research has suggested that – 
mostly through the actions of a minority - this group has the potential to have a large impact on 
crime trends and therefore to impose significant societal costs.  
Though data on this population is imperfect, a number of different data sources and 
methodologies are available to estimate OCU incidence. From these, three key conclusions 
emerge: 
 The number of new opiate/crack users is clearly far lower now than it was in the 1980s 
and early 1990s and has even dropped 20-45% since 2005. 
 This means numbers of new users in 2013 may be around 5,000-8,000 with an 
approximate upper bound of 10,000; and numbers involved with prolific criminality will be 
lower still. 
 The downward trend in new OCUs has flattened since about 2011, but available data do 
not suggest that this is the precursor to a new increase. If anything, the downward trend 
may resume in 2014, though the situation requires further monitoring.  
For local areas then, this report suggests that it is still important to identify new OCUs as the 
arrestee data showed that a proportion of these are likely to offend over a long period of time. 
But also, there was some evidence of a shift to older initiates, which may require a slightly 
different treatment approach.