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Vol.:(0123456789)Scientific Reports |        (2022) 12:17268  | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22228-7
www.nature.com/scientificreports/
Firstly, the period of 1986–2005 is defined as the baseline, of which the simulated average value is recog-
nized as 0.61 °C above pre-industrial (the period of 1850–1900) levels; the baseline is selected according to the 
accessibility and operability of data, which is used for the determination of the periods with global warming by 
1.5 °C and 2.0 °C and the comparison of maize yield between different periods. Secondly, the simulated values 
of global mean temperature in the future years are subtracted from the simulated average value of 1986–2005; 
then the values should be plus with 0.61 °C, which are the global warming results above pre-industrial levels; 
then 20 years moving average of the above results are calculated. Thirdly, the climate data of global warming by 
1.5 °C is defined according to the principles provided in the fifth IPCC Assessment Report, for which it should 
be within 1.5–2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels at the end of the twenty-first century; the climate data of global 
warming by 2.0 °C is defined according to the principles provided in the fifth IPCC Assessment Report, for which 
it should be within 2.0–2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels at the end of the twenty-first century and the period of 
global warming by 2.0 °C should not be earlier than 2050. Finally, the climate models, scenarios and periods of 
global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C are separately confirmed; the data of global warming by 1.5 °C, simulated 
by IPSL-CM5A-LR under RCP2.6 scenario during 2020–2039 and simulated by GFDL-ESM2M under RCP4.5 
scenario during 2041–2060; the data of global warming by 2.0 °C, simulated by NorESM1-M under RCP4.5 
scenario during 2060–2079 and simulated by GFDL-ESM2M under RCP6.0 scenario during 2065–2084.
Simulation of maize yield using DSSAT. According to the data of global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C 
selected above, we simulated global maize yield changes compared with the average yield during 1986–2005 on 
grid level using CERES-Maize, which is part of DSSAT version 4.649.
The inputs for DSSAT simulation include daily weather data, soil parameters, crop calendar data and man-
agement information. All the inputs are formatted at a 0.5° × 0.5° grid resolution which are computed by high-
performance computers. Weather data is from the AgMERRA dataset, including maximum and minimum tem-
peratures, precipitation, total radiation and humidity. Crop calendar data were from the Center for Sustainability 
and Global Environment (SAGE), in which the existing observations of crop planting and harvesting dates are 
gridded formatted at a resolution of 5   min50. For management information, fertilizer applications, irrigation 
and other management practices are required. A crop-specific gridded dataset of nitrogen fertilizer application 
for the world was developed by integrating national and subnational fertilizer application data from a variety of 
sources, which is used to set up current fertilizer application rates for maize in each grid cell. Soil parameters 
are from the International Soil Profile Dataset (WISE), including soil texture, bulk density, pH, organic carbon 
content and fraction of calcium carbonate for each of five 20 cm thick soil  layers51. All the soil data is allocated 
to be in accordance with the request of DSSAT simulation; the missing soil parameters for organic soils were 
adopted from FAO soil dataset.
First maize yields across the world during the historical period 1986–2005 were simulated at the 0.5°  × 0.5° 
grid scale with two main production systems, including Spring maize and Summer maize. Historical national 
maize production is aggregated from simulated gridded yield and weighted by grid cell maize areas in 2000 from 
the gridded global dataset by combining two data  products47. Second, genetic parameters of specific cultivars of