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Vol.:(0123456789)Scientific Reports |        (2022) 12:17268  | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22228-7
www.nature.com/scientificreports/
by 1.5 °C. According to the simulation results, comparing to 1986–2005, the maize yield in the United States, 
China and Brazil would decrease under global warming by 2.0 °C; the yield loss rate would reach more than 24% 
in Brazil; the United States would decrease by 13.3%; China would decrease by 11.5%. However, there would 
be increasing trends in Argentina and Mexico; the maize yield would increase by 16.8% in Argentina; the yield 
increasing rate would exceed 40% in Mexico. Overall, the gross maize yield in the top 5 countries would decrease 
by 11.4% under global warming by 2.0 °C. By comparing the maize production in different countries, it can be 
found that the reduction trend of total maize production in the top five countries is more obvious, especially 
under the scenario of global warming by 2.0 °C, the global food trade and food security may face greater risks.
From the view of continents, there are different trends of maize yield changes in the 6 continents (except Ant-
arctica) under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C (Fig. 6). From the results of simulated by CRESE-maize under 
global warming by 1.5 °C, the maize yield in 3 continents would decline apparently, including South America, 
Europe and Oceania; the average yield loss rates are respectively − 15.6%, − 12.4%, − 36.4%; in the other 3 con-
tinents the average maize yield would go up, especially in Africa more than 30%; the increasing trends are slight 
in Asia and North America, in which the yield increasing rates are separately 0.7% and 0.4%. However, the yield 
change trends simulated by IPSL-CM5A-LR and GFDL-ESM2M models are different in 2 continents, including 
Asia and North America. From the results of simulated by CRESE-maize under global warming by 2.0 °C, the 
maize yield in 5 continents would decline apparently, except Africa; the average yield loss rates are respectively 
− 7.9% (Asia), − 14.1% (North America), − 9.3% (South America), − 22.5% (Europe), − 25.5% (Oceania); only in 
Africa the average maize yield would go up also more than 30%; meanwhile the yield change trends simulated by 
IPSL-CM5A-LR and GFDL-ESM2M models are the same in each continent. Comparing the two global warming 
scenarios, there would be apparent variations in maize yield in Asia and North America, in which the annual 
maize yield accounts for a great proportion of the whole world, leading to a much more serious yield loss under 
global warming by 2.0 °C than that under global warming by 1.5 °C. There would be an obvious crisis of food 
supply under global warming by 2.0 °C with the increasing population in the future. So, it is important to make 
full preparation for adaptation to climate change in the whole world.
Figure 5.  (continued)