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Vol:.(1234567890)Scientific Reports |        (2022) 12:17268  | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22228-7
www.nature.com/scientificreports/
warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. So, there are apparent challenges and opportunities for maize production in the 
whole world under climate change. We should grasp the opportunities and expand the yield increasing poten-
tials; meanwhile, the threat of maize yield loss should be controlled and compressed to the minimum in the 
high-risk regions.
From the results simulated by IPSL-CM5A-LR model under RCP 2.6 scenario, the gross yield of maize in 
the world between 2020 and 2039 would decrease by 6.8% relative to 1986–2005. The area is 37.7% of the whole 
maize planting regions in the world, in which the yield loss would be less than 50%, mainly located in the low 
and middle latitude of South America and Asia, and the middle latitude of Africa and North America. The area 
is 16.4% of the whole maize planting regions, in which the yield loss would be more than 50%, mainly located 
in the low latitude of South America and the middle latitude of Asia and Europe. The area is 45.8% of the whole 
maize planting regions, in which the yield would increase, mainly located in the low latitude of Africa, Asia and 
North America, the high latitude of Europe. From the results simulated by the GFDL-ESM2M model under 
RCP 4.5 scenario, the gross yield of maize in the world between 2041 and 2060 would increase by 7.2% relative 
to 1986–2005. There are opposite trends of maize yield under global warming by 1.5 °C, which are simulated 
by different global climate models. However, the spatial distributions of maize yield change are similar to each 
other. The difference is that the regions of high yield loss rate are decreasing, and the regions of yield increasing 
are going up. In a comprehensive perspective, under global warming by 1.5 °C, maize yield in the whole world 
would increase 0.18% relative to 1986–2005 (Fig. 3). According to Paris Agreement, all countries should do their 
best to limit the global warming by 1.5 °C until the end of 21 century. If that objective could be accomplished, 
gross maize production of the whole world would not be influenced so much by climate change, but the food 
Figure 3.  Distribution of yield loss rate on maize in the world under global warming by 1.5 °C (up: IPSL-
CM5A-LR model, RCP 2.6; down: GFDL-ESM2M model, RCP 4.5). The figure has been generated using ArcGIS 
10.2 and Natural Earth-Free vector and raster map data @ https:// natur alear thdata. com.