11rsta.royalsocietypublishing.orgP h i l .T r a n s .R .S o c .A376:20160452 ........................................................
ensemble mean
IPSL-CM5A-LR  GFDL-ESM2M
–20 –10 0 10 20
days
HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC-ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
Figure4. Simulatedchangesinthenumberofconsecutivedrydaysrelativeto1981–2010,at2 °Cglobalwarming,forindividual
HadGEM3simulationsdrivenbySSTsandSICsfromdifferentmembersoftheCMIP5ensemble,andtheensemblemean.The
labelsaboveeachpanelidentifythedrivingCMIP5model(orensemblemean).
Table 5.Global mean changes at 2°C global warming compared to present day for individual ensemble members, for the
ClimPACT indices, the flood and drought proxies used as input to the HCVI calculations, and percentage change in mean
precipitation(Pmean),meanrun-off(Rmean)andlowrun-off(Rlow).
IPSL-
CM5A-LR
GFDL-
ESM2M
HadGEM2-
ES
IPSL-
CM5A-MR
MIRC-ESM-
CHEM ACCESS1-0
ensemble
mean
TXx(°C) 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.8 2.6
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
TX90p(%time) 20.1 24.3 24.9 29.0 23.5 27.9 25.0
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
CDD −3.0 0.9 −3.4 −5.7 −2.0 −5.5 −2.9
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
RX5day(mm) 3.5 5.4 6.9 6.8 6.0 6.7 5.9
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
droughtproxy 0.76 0.89 n.a. 0.38 0.38 0.66 0.61
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
floodproxy 0.83 0.82 n.a. 0.75 0.73 0.78 0.78
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
Pmean(%) 2.1 3.4 5.0 3.0 5.3 2.9 4.0
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
Rmean(%) 2.4 6.5 8.1 4.4 8.6 4.9 5.8
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
Rlow(%) −2.0 3.8 11.2 8.0 9.4 5.1 5.9
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
areas are projected to see an increase in ﬂood event lengths of 4 days or more, particularly India
and Bangladesh, for which such increases are projected in all ensemble members to some extent.
Increases of 2–4 days are also projected in parts of Brazil by all ensemble members, although
the magnitude and location within the country varied between members. Similar increases are
projected in the region of the Horn of Africa and southern Arabian Peninsula in several members.
The HCVI calculated for 2°C global warming showed very large geographical variability
(ﬁgure 7 ) which relates largely to differences in socio-economic factors [ 22]. Differences in the
climate change simulated in different ensemble members leads to some variation in the HCVI at