Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
5. Previous Projections 
At the end of September 2014 the published prison population was within 1.8 
% of the 2013 Scenario 2 (central) projection, and within 3.4 % of the 2013 
Scenario 1 projection and 0.2 % of the 2013 Scenario 3 projection. This does 
not indicate which scenario the actual prison population will track going 
forward.  
Differences between the 2013 projections and the actual population could be 
explained by changes, different to those projected, in overall demand, offence 
mix, age and gender of defendants, court routes, custody rates or sentence 
lengths.  
Chart 3 plots the 2014 Central Scenario projection against the three 2013 
prison population projections. The 2014-2020 Central Scenario projection is 
above all three scenarios from last year. The higher level of the new 
projections can be attributed to a more serious case mix coming into the 
courts with a resulting increase in average custodial sentence lengths. The 
projection for June 2019 in the Central Scenario this year is 10.2 % above the 
equivalent scenario (Scenario 2) last year. 
Chart 3: Comparing 2013 and 2014 projections (November 2014 – December 
2020) 
 
Total Prison Population
Prison population projections from November 2014 to December 2020
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16 Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
Month End
Prison Population
2014 Central Scenario 2013 Scenario 1 2013 Scenario 2 2013 Scenario 3
 
13