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Vol.:(0123456789)Scientific Reports |        (2022) 12:17268  | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22228-7
www.nature.com/scientificreports
The impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C 
global warming on global maize 
production and trade
Kuo Li1*, Jie Pan1, Wei Xiong2, Wei Xie3 & Tariq Ali3
Climate change is becoming more and more remarkable which has an obvious impact on crop yields 
all over the world. Future climate scenario data was simulated by 5 climate models recommended 
by ISI-MIP under 4 RCP scenarios, in which the approximate scenarios with global warming by 1.5 °C 
and 2 °C were selected. Applying DSSAT and GTAP models, the per unit yield changes of maize in the 
world under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C were analyzed and the market prices of maize at 
national and global levels were simulated. The results showed that, the risk of maize yield reduction 
under 2.0 °C scenario was much more serious than 1.5 °C scenario; the ratios of yield changes were 
separately 0.18% and − 10.8% under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The reduction trend of total maize 
production is obvious in the top five countries and the main producing regions of the world, especially 
under the 2.0 °C scenario. The market price of maize would increase by around 0.7% and 3.4% under 
1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. With the quickly increasing population in the world, it is urgent for all 
countries to pay enough attention to the risk of maize yield and take actions of mitigation and 
adaptation to climate change.
In the past hundred years, the global climate has experienced great  changes1–4. According to the sixth assess-
ment report of IPCC, the global average surface temperature increased by 1.09 °C between 1850 and 2020, and 
almost all regions in the world experienced surface  warming5. Due to global warming, the extreme climate events 
become more and more frequent, and the ecological environment problems caused by climate change are more 
and more serious, which restrict the sustainable development of human society and  health6–10. Global warming 
has gradually changed from a scientific issue to a major social issue of common concern to governments and 
people of all  countries11–13. In 2016, nearly 200 parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on climate 
change reached the Paris Agreement at the climate change conference in  Paris14. Paris Agreement has indicated 
that it is urgent to hold the increase in global average temperature well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels 
and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
Faced with climate change, agriculture is the most vulnerable sector, which will experience the largest negative 
impacts from climatic change and lead to more serious food security in the whole  world15–20. Meanwhile, global 
production losses might lead to price shocks and trigger export  restrictions21–24; an increasingly interconnected 
global food  system25,26 and the projected fragility of the global food production system due to climatic change 
further exacerbate the threats to food security in the  worldwide27–29. So, the impacts of climate changes on crop 
yields and prices have been of highly concerned. Numerous studies have revealed that the warming trend has 
negative impact on crop yields and global trade in most regions all over the  world30–32. There are three main 
methods for impacts assessment of climate change on crops, including environment-controlled experiments, 
statistical regression analysis and model  simulations17,33. Environment-controlled experiments are designed 
to observe the influence of climate factors on crops, such as drought, flood, heat stress, cold damage, elevated 
 CO2 concentration, through which the impact mechanism of climate change on crops would be revealed and 
 established23,34,35. Crop models and trade models are applied to simulate the response of crop yield and market