13rsta.royalsocietypublishing.orgP h i l .T r a n s .R .S o c .A376:20160452 ........................................................
ensemble mean
IPSL-CM5A-LR  GFDL-ESM2M
–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
change in length of average flood event (days)
IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC-ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
Figure6. Simulatedchangesintheaveragelengthoffloodevents(numberofdaysinwhichthecumulativedailyrainfallexcess
ispositive,comparedwiththe95thpercentilein1981–2010,at2 °Cglobalwarming,forindividualHadGEM3simulationsdriven
bySSTsandSICsfromdifferentmembersoftheCMIP5ensemble,andtheensemblemean.Thelabelsaboveeachpanelidentify
thedrivingCMIP5model(orensemblemean).
ACCESS1-0
–0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
IPSL-CM5A-LR
ensemble mean
vulnerability to food insecurity
IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC-ESM-CHEM
GFDL-ESM2M
Figure 7.Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index calculated for simulated climate states at 2°C global warming for five
individualHadGEM3simulationsdrivenbySSTsandSICsfromdifferentmembersoftheCMIP5ensemble,andtheensemble
mean.