Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
4. Results 
The Central Scenario estimates that the prison population will rise to 87,700 
by the end of June 2015 and to 90,200 by the end of June 2020. 
Chart 2 presents Prison population projections from November 2014 to 
December 2020.  
Chart 2: Projected monthly prison population (all scenarios) 
Total Prison Population
Prison population projections from November 2014 to December 2020
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
Nov-14
Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16 Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18
Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20
Month End
Prison Population
Scenario 1 Central Scenario Scenario 2
 
Illustrative Scenario 1 estimates that the prison population will rise to 87,100 
by the end of June 2015 and then fall to 81,400 by the end of June 2020.  
Illustrative Scenario 2 estimates that the prison population will rise to 88,900 
by the end of June 2015 and to 98,900 by the end of June 2020. 
The projected trends reflect the cumulative impacts of the various sentencing, 
legislative and procedural assumptions that are used to generate the 
projections. The seasonal pattern reflects the dip in the prison population 
which is always seen around the Christmas period. 
In the Central Scenario, the prison population is expected to rise to 90,200 by 
June 2020. The projected population increase is largely due to the recent 
trends in case mix where we have seen more serious cases come before the 
courts. This results in offenders receiving longer custodial sentence lengths, 
which in turn places an upward pressure on the prison population. The growth 
in this scenario is largely driven by the rise in the determinate population 
which is projected to grow to 60,200 by June 2020. This is partially due to the 
11