9rsta.royalsocietypublishing.orgP h i l .T r a n s .R .S o c .A376:20160452 ........................................................
ensemble mean
IPSL-CM5A-LR  GFDL-ESM2M
 –2  –1 0 2
°C
34561
HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC-ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
Figure2. Simulatedchangesinannualdailymaximumtemperaturerelativeto1981–2010at2 °Cglobalwarming,forindividual
HadGEM3simulationsdrivenbySSTsandSICsfromdifferentmembersoftheCMIP5ensemble,andtheensemblemean.The
labelsaboveeachpanelidentifythedrivingCMIP5model(orensemblemean).
Table4. TimeofreachingGWLsof1.5 °Cand2 °Cineachbias-correctedoutputfromtheHadGEM3climatesimulations,driven
bydifferentsetsofCMIP5sea-surfacetemperatures.Thedatesarethecentreyearofa20yearperiodforwhichtheclimatedata
isappliedtotheHCVIcalculationandJULESsimulations.
drivingSSTs 1.5 °C2 . 0 °C
IPSL-CM5A-LR 2024 2035
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
GFDL-ESM2M 2036 2051
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
HadGEM2-ES 2019 2033
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
IPSL-CM5A-MR 2023 2036
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 2020 2032
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
ACCESS1-0 2026 2040
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
land surface sees an increase in annual daily maximum temperature which is similar to the global
annual mean temperature increase. In the IPSL-driven simulations, increases in TXx substantially
larger than the GWL are conﬁned to the eastern USA, Europe and part of northeast Asia. By
contrast, the GFDL-driven simulation shows much of the global land surface seeing increases
in annual daily maximum temperature larger than the global mean warming. Much of the mid-
latitudes experience an increase in TXx of over 4°C. The very largest increases of 5°C or more
are seen in central North America, Europe and northwestern Asia. Similar results are seen in the
MIROC and ACCESS models.
The percentage of days exceeding the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature increase
more in tropical areas (ﬁgure 3). Some areas show over 60% of days above this level at 2°C global
warming compared with present day, whereas in the mid-latitudes between 20% and 30% of days
exceed this level. The global mean is between 20% and 30% in all ensemble members (table 3).