Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
2. Recent trends in the population  
The ‘Story of the Prison Population 1993 to 2012’ is an in-depth look at what 
happened to the prison population between 1993 and 2012 and the major 
factors contributing to the changes.4  
The prison population grew rapidly between 1993 to 2008, at an average of 
4% a year.  This rapid rise was driven by: 
 increased numbers of people sentenced to immediate custody from 
1993 to 2002; 
 increases in the average custodial sentence length and increased use 
of indeterminate sentences; and 
 an increase in numbers recalled to prison following breaches of the 
conditions of licence and these offenders spending longer in prison 
once recalled. 
 
The rise in the prison population slowed considerably from the summer of 
2008, in part due to the introduction of the Criminal Justice and Immigration 
Act (CJIA) 20085 which changed sentencing and offender management in 
ways which helped to reduce growth in the prison population. 
This flatter trend continued until the public disorder seen in UK cities from 6 to 
9 August 2011 which had an immediate but temporary impact on the prison 
population. 
During 2012 and into 2013, the prison population began to fall due to a falling 
remand population and a continued decline in the number of under 18s in 
custody.  The falling remand population during 2012 reflected falling volumes 
going through the courts plus the introduction, in December 2012, of 
measures restricting the use of remand for all offenders who would be unlikely 
to receive a custodial sentence.6 
From the end of August 2013 to the end of October 2013, the remand 
population rose sharply, driving an overall increase in the prison population.  
This was being driven by an increase in demand in the Crown Courts, 
especially among more serious tri-able either way cases. The total population 
has continued to rise since the beginning of 2014 and reached 85,9257 on the 
                                                 
4 Story of the Prison Population: www.gov.uk/government/publicati ons/story-of-the-prison-
population-1993-2012 
5 services.parliament.uk/bills/2007-08/crimi naljusticeandimmigration.html 
6 http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2010-11/legalaidsentencingandpunishmentofoffenders.html 
7 www.gov.uk/government/statistics/priso n-population-figures-2014 
6