12rsta.royalsocietypublishing.orgP h i l .T r a n s .R .S o c .A376:20160452 ........................................................
ensemble mean
IPSL-CM5A-LR  GFDL-ESM2M
–20 –10 0 10 20
mm
HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC-ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
Figure5. Simulatedchangesintheannualmaximumrainfallover5daysrelativeto1981–2010,at2 °Cglobalwarming,for
individualHadGEM3simulationsdrivenbySSTsandSICsfromdifferentmembersoftheCMIP5ensemble,andtheensemble
mean.ThelabelsaboveeachpanelidentifythedrivingCMIP5model(orensemblemean).
2°C, although the geographical variation is still dominated by the non-climatic factors ( ﬁgure 7).
Therefore, the ensemble-mean change is a reasonable guide to the results.
The ensemble mean is higher in nearly all assessed countries relative to the baseline (ﬁgure 8).
The greatest increase was in Oman, followed by India, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia, then Brazil
and a number of its neighbouring countries. Smaller increases in HCVI were seen across Africa.
Southeastern Africa showed larger increases than Central Africa. The HCVI decreased in three
countries: Mali, Burkino Faso and Sudan.
The ensemble members showed broadly consistent changes in HCVI at 2°C global warming,
with increases in most assessed countries and generally similar sets of countries experiencing the
largest and smallest changes. Southeastern Africa consistently showed larger increases in HCVI
than Central Africa, due to increased length of drought events projected in all ensemble members
(not shown). The length of ﬂood events was not projected to increase in this region. The Sahel
region consistently showed one or more countries with a small decrease in the HCVI, although
the precise country or countries varied between ensemble members. The decrease in HCVI here
was due to projected decreases in length of drought, with length of ﬂood events projected to
change little.
India is projected to see increased HCVI by all ensemble members, due to a consistent increase
in length of ﬂood events projected in all members, outweighing the beneﬁcial impact of decreased
length of drought which is again projected in all members.
Brazil is projected to see increased HCVI, but for reasons which vary between ensemble
members. Although the location of projected longer ﬂood events varies across the country in
different members, the aggregation of the HCVI to the country level renders this geographical
variability irrelevant for such a large country because only the median value across the country
is used in the HCVI. Some ensemble members project longer drought for Brazil, which again
contributed to increased HCVI.