Prison Population Projections 2014 – 2020 
The assumptions used are based on consultation with policy and operational 
experts at the Ministry of Justice and the National Offender Management 
Service. They also take into account observed data trends:     
 These projections represent a change from last year where the 2013 
Scenario 2 (central) saw the population gradually falling over the six 
year lifetime of the projection. The Central Scenario in the projections 
this year shows the population rising over the next six years. This 
change arises from the fact that the latest projections capture a recent 
upward trend in prosecutions of more serious offences. 
 Despite the fact that overall crime is falling there has been an increase 
in recorded crime for certain offence types: 
o Prosecutions for sexual offences are the highest in the decade 
and increased by 19% in the 12 months ending June 2014, in 
line with a 21% increase in recorded crime. Offenders 
sentenced for sexual offences had an Average Custodial 
Sentence Length (ASCL) of 59.7 months, a rise of 2.4 months, 
compared with year ending June 2013.  
o Violence against the person proceedings for indictable offences 
have increased by 7% in the 12 months ending June 2014. This 
is in line with an 11% increase in recorded crime.   
Further statistics and commentary on the changes seen in Court proceedings 
and sentencing over the last year is presented in the Criminal Justice System 
Statistics Quarterly publication. This is available online on GOV.UK at: 
www.gov.uk/government/collections/criminal-justice-statistics- quarterly 
 
 
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