Nature | Vol 637 | 2 January 2025 | 121
ancestry related to EIA Scandinavian Peninsula (Fig. 2c). The Wielbark 
archaeological complex has been linked to the later Chernyakhov cul-
ture to the southeast and to early Goths, an historical Germanic group 
that flourished in the second to fifth centuries ce 56. Our modelling 
supports the idea that some groups that probably spoke Germanic 
languages from Scandinavia expanded south across the Baltic into 
the area between the Oder and Vistula rivers in the early centuries ce, 
although whether these expansions can be linked specifically with 
historical Goths is still debatable. Moreover, since a considerable 
proportion of Wielbark burials during this period were cremations, 
the possible presence of individuals with other ancestries cannot be 
strictly rejected if they were exclusively cremated (and are therefore 
invisible in the aDNA record).
A previous study could not reject continuity in ancestry from the 
Wielbark-associated individuals to later medieval individuals from 
a similar region12. With the improved power of Twigstats, models of 
continuity are strongly rejected, with no one-source model of any pre-
ceding Iron Age or Bronze Age group providing a reasonable fit for the 
a
Scandinavian Peninsula EIA
Britain
Central Europe
Portugal
Hungary and Slovakia
Eastern Europe
Italy
0.002
0
–0.002 Dimension 1
–0.004
–0.002 –0.001 0 0.001
Dimension 2
0.002 0.003 0.004
Twigstats f3-statistics
Scandinavian Peninsula EIA
Denmark IA
Early medieval,
including Wielbark,
Baiuvarii,
Longobards,
England earlyMED,
Slovakia earlyMED
England Dif/f_ield Terrace
Regular f3-statistics
Drif/f_ield Terrace
Roman outlier (second to
fourth century CE)
1
Anatolia_EBA
Austria_Klosterneuburg_Roman
Baiuvari_earlyMED
Britain.lronRoman
CentraIEurope.IronRoman(l)
CentraIEurope.IronRoman(Il)
CentraIEurope.IronRoman(IIl)
CordedWare_EBA
Croatia.IronRoman_oNorthEurope
Denmark_BA IrelandOrkney_BA
HungarySlovakia.lronRoman
Hungary_earlyMED(II)
Hungary_earlyMED(I)
England.Drif/f_ield.Terrace.Scandinavia
England_earlyMED_midCNE
England_earlyMED_lowCNE
England_earlyMED_highCNE
Denmark_IA
Denmark_EVA
Dimension 2
0.002 0.003
Twigstats f3-statistics
0.004
Poland_BA Saami
Russia_Sarmatian
Portugal.lronRoman
PolandUkraine_MLBA(II)
PolandUkraine_MLBA(I)
Poland_Wielbark(III)
Poland_Wielbark(II)
Poland_Wielbark(I)
Poland_Middle_Ages(II)
Poland_Middle_Ages(I) Scandinavian_Peninsula_EIA(I)
Scandinavian_Peninsula_EIA(II)
Slovakia_Zohor_Germanic_Roman
Slovakia_earlyMED
Slovenia.lronRoman
Slovenia.Roman.oNorthEurope
Netherlands_Friesland_earlyMED
Montenegro_earlyMED
Longobard_earlyMED(II)
Longobard_earlyMED(I)
Lithuania.lronRoman
Kyrgyzstan_TianShanHun
ltaly.lronRepublic
ltaly.lmperial(ll)
Italy.lmperial(l)
0.0010–0.001–0.002
–0.004
–0.002
0
Italy
0.002Dimension 1
Portugal
Central
Europe
Britain
Hungary and Slovakia
Eastern Europe
28
2
3 13
3.3
I II III 6
Wielbark, Poland
(/f_irst to third century CE)
Medieval Poland (tenth
to eleventh century CE)
2
Iron Age, Denmark
(/f_irst to third century CE)
Friesland, the Netherlands
(/f_ifth to sixth century CE)
Baiuvarii
(/f_ifth century CE)
Longobard
(sixth century CE)
Early medieval
Slovakia
(third to /f_ifth century CE)
Zohor, Slovakia
(/f_irst to second
century CE)
La Tène, Slovakia
(/f_irst century BCE
to /f_irst century CE)
2.1
Low CNE Mid CNE High CNE
Early medieval England
(/f_ifth to eighth century CE)
9
II I 7
4.7
1
3
bc
d
Iron Age, Denmark Early Viking, Salme
Drif/f_ield Terrace
Roman outlier
Early
medieval England
Wielbark, Poland
Early medievalZohor
LongobardBaiuvarii
Friesland, the
NetherlandsMid CNELow CNE
I II
Fig. 2 | Ancestry from the Iron Age to the early medieval period in Europe.  
a, Source groups used for qpAdm modelling of early medieval Europe. MDS is 
computed jointly with individuals from later periods using pairwise outgroup 
f3 statistics (outgroup: Han Chinese people). These are calculated using