17rsta.royalsocietypublishing.orgP h i l .T r a n s .R .S o c .A376:20160452 ........................................................
Figure11. Distributionsofchangesinrun-offforlowflows(flowsforlowest10%oftime)simulatedbytheJULESecosystem–
hydrologymodelundertheensembleofsixclimateprojectionsat1.5 °C(blue)and2 °C(orange)globalwarming.Boxesshow
the25thand75thpercentilechanges,whiskersshowtherange,circlesshowthefourprojectionsthatdonotdefinetheendsof
therange,andcrossesshowtheensemblemeans.Numbersinsquarebracketsshowtheensemble-meanflowinthebaseline,
inmillimetresofrainequivalent.
Table 6.Globalmeanchangesat1.5 °Cglobalwarmingcomparedtopresentdayforindividualensemblemembers,forthe
ClimPACT indices, the flood and drought proxies used as input to the HCVI calculations, and percentage change in mean
precipitation(Pmean),meanrun-off(Rmean)andlowrun-off(Rlow).
IPSL-
CM5A-LR
GFDL-
ESM2M
HadGEM2-
ES
IPSL-
CM5A-MR
MIROC-
ESM-CHEM ACCESS1-0
ensemble
mean
TXx(°C) 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.7
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
TX90p(%time) 10.0 15.7 16.2 19.2 14.1 18.3 15.6
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
CDD −1.2 0.7 −1.3 −5.4 0.0 −3.8 −1.6
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
RX5day(mm) 1.1 3.6 4.5 4.6 4.0 4.3 3.6
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
droughtproxy 0.74 0.48 n.a. 0.39 0.16 0.31 0.42
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
floodproxy 0.75 0.73 n.a. 0.73 0.79 0.73 0.75
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
Pmean(%) 1.4 0.9 3.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 2.2
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
Rmean(%) 2.1 0.7 5.4 0.7 6.7 5.0 3.9
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
Rlow(%) −3.4 0.3 5.9 2.2 5.9 4.9 2.6
......................................... ............................................ .......................................... ..................................... ......................................
days were projected to exceed the baseline 10th percentile, at 1.5°C this reduces by 15–20% or
more. Again, the patterns of change at 1.5°C retain a similar geographical pattern of greater
increases in the tropics than mid-latitudes (electronic supplementary material).