Simon R0senberg just released a report analyzing the current polling market and confirming that the R effort to tilt the polls in Trump's favor is even more aggressive than it was in 2022. This time, they're using a larger number of polls with smaller R-leans (twice as many polls, but say, a 3 lead for Trump rather than a 6 point lead) to tilt the average bit-by-bit, knowing poll aggregators will weigh them less, but then still flooding the market with even higher numbers to imbalance the average anyway. They've been doing this since late August, and the peak has reached a new height. **In Pennsylvania, for example, there have been 27 Presidential level polls, and 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority.**

Simon was the one who most correctly predicted the red wave would not manifest in 2022 by identifying this exact phenomena, and it was true that in many races, the Rs either unexpectedly lost, or only won by smaller than expected margins.

This should not surprise anyone, and it doesn't account for other problems like polling less reachable demographics either. He also discussed the effects of polymarket, but many of you in this thread are already aware of how shady that whole operation is, needless to say, it reeks of foreign interference and should be ignored entirely.

In short, the state of the race in the aggregators is simply not likely to reflect reality. I'm not even saying Trump couldn't still win, but if he did somehow win? It will be because of factors the polls have not detected, rather than the false strength they are currently trying to show. There's been too much distortion and junk data. In typical far right-fascist fashion, weatherization of information and distorting the sciences and democracy deliberately are a key strategy, with an end goal of boosting their own strength and image. **When you consider who the far right has become in the past 10 years, who their foreign allies and sponsors are, is this really all that surprising to anyone!?**

Focus on actual hard data that's less easy to manipulate, and make a voting plan and outreach plan these last few weeks. Worrying about aggregators is nothing more than a distraction meant to influence your emotions and cloud your judgement. Stop visiting 538. Especially stop visiting the 538 reddit, or socials. Focus instead on what you can do to vote yourself, or help with turnout. Period.

Look up the article. I'd link to it but automod seems to block the site for some silly reason.