A fun bit of polling data for everybody which makes this betting market seem foolish.

In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Trump has been slowly bleeding support among non-college whites.

He had a 25 point advantage in 2016, 22 points in 2020, and is now polling at a 19 point advantage in 2024.  

Focusing just on Michigan, Non-college whites make up 51% of the voting population.

What this means is that between 2020 and 2024, Trump has lost 1.5% of the vote to Harris that he had in 2020, an election he lost to Joe Biden by 2.78 percentage points.