Something interesting I came across:

https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1846597997507092901

>Why is there a premium off a single trader? He's bet $25 million (and counting) -- all of it on Trump. He has dumped in a large portion of that in the past two weeks. And by wanting so much Trump in a short time span, he is skewing the supply/demand equation; there is nowhere near enough demand for that much Kamala at the current prices, so the price has to move a lot to accomodate the demand for Trump. And then the price moves on every market around the world as people arbitrage it.

>How'd I get to $25m? Because Fredi is not just loading up his account and making bets. Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn't look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo. Mark-to-market, the accounts have $28m in positions from those $25m in bets.

>How are they connected? The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken (usually denominated as exactly $500k or $1m deposits), and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere (and only Trump, 0 interest in anything else on the site). Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.

>I pinged @fozzydiablo about these four accounts, who posted his findings here, showing patterns that definitely imply the same user is controlling all 4 accounts:  
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