A new poll came out showing Osborn +6. It's an internal, but he's so high up that I don't think internal bias counteracts it, and the fact he hit 50% helps. I do think he likely loses (by just below a percentage point), but this is a genuine contest, and even the GOP admits it by now (although Osborn and his allies are outspending them...somehow).

At this point, my most realistic hope is that he, Mucarsel Powell, and/or Tester are seat 50 for the Dems (although Osborn will likely negotiate a CASA instead of caucusing outright), and I do think Osborn is Senator 50 by now.