I'd like to remind everyone that a major reason why most of the polls are showing a close race in the swing states is because [many are weighting them to 2020 recalled vote](https://archive.is/1SJ7o). They're essentially herding without herding by assuming that the 2024 election will look the same as the 2020 election. Problem with this method is if you weight to last election, it shouldn't be a surprise when your numbers this year look the same.

This also means the sample will inherently be more Republican and it is designed to not pick up any shift in voter sentiment. Pollsters assume 2024 will be the same as 2020, so they want their polls to reflect that. No one wants to take risks anymore in polling for fear of getting it wrong. To quote that article I linked,

> A near repeat of the last presidential election is certainly a plausible outcome. In today’s polarized era, who could possibly be surprised by a repeat in Mr. Trump’s third presidential run? If it’s a near repeat, the polls weighted by recall vote won’t just have an excellent night themselves, but they might also spare the entire industry another four years of misery.
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> But if this election is different, in any direction, this year’s polls might not be able to see it coming.