I just looked into the betting market. Roger Willis I think does an election predictor based on betting markets for elections.

The last couple weeks have moved a lot towards Trump. There's no discernible event for this movement.

Except a couple of whale betters dropped 30 million in crypto into a betting site after a news article on this guys betting model was published.

So basically some pro trumpers are throwing money at shitty polls and betting markets to give the appearance of real movement to try and actualize it.

Keep in mind, real polls are two weeks behind real sentiment. This betting model uses real time info on bets being placed, so much easier to game if a whale drops a huge bet. And Nate Silver has interest in one of these betting sites where the odds are partially set by his own poll aggregator model.

This whole thing stinks.