I’m still not buying the horse race here. Trump lost convincingly in 2020. Since then, he’s done nothing to expand his voter base. Old age and covid have absolutely disproportionately affected republicans. A not insignificant number of them have moved into the never trump camp. Conservatives have declared war on women’s rights - democrats have over performed (in sometimes shocking fashion) in nearly every election since Roe fell.

Trump is historically unpopular. As much as I think Biden did a fantastic job, I’m not going to pretend he won because people were voting *for* him. They were voting against trump. And nothing about that dynamic has fundamentally changed. Couple that with a democratic candidate who most of us are *much* more enthusiastic about and I just don’t see where the current doom & gloom is coming from. Who are these new voters who are going to push trump over the top this time? I’ve heard/read things about young, white, single men being more pro-trump, but their defining trait is lack of motivation. I just don’t see it.