I am constantly questioning myself in this cycle about why I am not freaking out more than I am. Despite the tied polling, the other indicators that are out there are overwhelmingly positive - new voter registration, percent of new voters supporting Harris, gender gap, ground game, etc. there are a few indicators in Trump’s side, but they don’t feel as overwhelming. Even without the right wing polls flooding the aggregates, that all makes me hopeful in a tied race - telling me that I am not just in extreme denial. 

It’s stuff like that that is encouraging because it shows that the things that we’re lacking when Trump won last time are not a problem this time. If anything, it’s a problem for Trump now. 

When it comes to Trump’s overestimation in the past, I can’t help but think of the confounding factors in those races - Hilary’s hubris and dropping the ball on ground game in 2016 (Comey would not have made a difference if she were not already vulnerable) and COVID in 2020 reducing Dem campaigning on the ground. This led to more enthusiasm showing up in the end, but in this election the enthusiasm and ground game is on our side. 

This should be a motivator to keep working and not a complacency driver. I’m in a deep red state, so my influence is limited, but I have still given money and will be casting my vote this week. That said, despite our knee-jerk reaction to prevent complacency, I don’t think that will be a problem this time around. Dobbs was not just a wake-up call for women, but a signal that Republicans’ social conservative bluster is not just empty talk that economic conservatives and moderates could safely overlook in the name of their pocketbooks. It’s an actual threat now, and made slippery slope fears of the left much more plausible. 

TL;DR - This is just one of the many reasons I don’t think my gut feelings are wrong about this cycle and our chances of winning are higher than polls suggest.