Polls have a margin of error pushing 3-5 points.

In an election where swing states come down to 10,000 votes or less? Polls don’t have the *resolution nor precision* to tell us much. Like looking for one specific flea… across 10 dog’s backs.

If they tell us one candidate is 15 points ahead, that’s pretty good confidence. If they tell us Harris is +2, no wait, Trump is +1, no wait, Harris is +1. **That’s not actionable data…** that’s dancing in the margins of error and noise.

As always, this one boils down to turnout in the swing states and which side brings out more of their voters. I live in a Cincy suburb that went for Trump at 70% in 2016 but went 50% to Biden in 2020. Today there’s 9 Harris signs on the street and 1 Trump sign. Sooooo, I know where the enthusiasm is.