[154] Madison believed that economic pressure could force the British to end their seizure of American shipped goods, and he and Jefferson convinced Congress to pass the Embargo Act of 1807, which banned all exports to foreign nations.[155] The embargo proved ineffective, unpopular, and difficult to enforce, especially in New England.[156] In March 1809, Congress replaced the embargo with the Non-Intercourse Act, which allowed trade with nations other than Britain and France.[157]

1808 presidential election
Main article: 1808 United States presidential election
Following Jefferson's presidency, Madison's 1808 electoral vote results
Speculation regarding Madison's potential succession of Jefferson commenced early in Jefferson's first term. Madison's status in the party was damaged by his association with the embargo, which was unpopular throughout the country and especially in the Northeast.[158] With the Federalists collapsing as a national party after 1800, the chief opposition to Madison's candidacy came from other members of the Democratic–Republican Party.[159] Madison became the target of attacks from Congressman John Randolph, a leader of a faction of the party known as the tertium quids.