However, Roosevelt was still unwilling to run against Taft in 1912; he instead hoped to run in 1916 against whichever Democrat beat Taft in 1912.[246]

Battling Taft over arbitration treaties
Taft was world leader for arbitration as a guarantee of world peace. In 1911 he and his Secretary of State Philander C. Knox negotiated major treaties with Great Britain and France providing that differences be arbitrated. Disputes had to be submitted to the Hague Court or other tribunal. These were signed in August 1911 but had to be ratified by a two-thirds vote of the Senate. Neither Taft or Knox consulted with leaders of the Senate during the negotiating process. By then many Republicans were opposed to Taft, and the president felt that lobbying too hard for the treaties might cause their defeat. He made some speeches supporting the treaties in October, but the Senate added amendments Taft could not accept, killing the agreements.[247]
The arbitration issue revealed a deep philosophical dispute among American progressives. One faction, led by Taft looked to legal arbitration as the best alternative to warfare. Taft was a constitutional lawyer with a deep understanding of the legal issues.