 The initial tropical disturbance was first noted to the east @-@ southeast of Majuro on September 27 . The system tracked north of due west , before consolidating slowly into a tropical depression on September 30 and a tropical storm on October 2 . After passing between Rota and Saipan , Carmen turned northwest and intensified into a typhoon on October 4 . Winds at Rota peaked at 53 knots ( 98 km / h ) as it passed by the island . Heavy rains fell at Guam , where amounts totalled between 254 millimetres ( 10 @.@ 0 in ) and 279 millimetres ( 11 @.@ 0 in ) . Moving through a break in the subtropical ridge , Carmen rapidly strengthened as it turned north , then northeast , on October 6 when maximum sustained winds reached 100 knots ( 190 km / h ) . As vertical wind shear increased due to strengthening southwest winds aloft , the cyclone weakened into a tropical storm on October 8 , evolving into an extratropical cyclone by October 9 . 
