 The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting ( HWRF ) model is a specialized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) model and is used to forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones . The model was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) , the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory , the University of Rhode Island , and Florida State University . It became operational in 2007 . Despite improvements in track forecasting , predictions of the intensity of a tropical cyclone based on numerical weather prediction continue to be a challenge , since statiscal methods continue to show higher skill over dynamical guidance . 
