 During 1972 , the first model to forecast storm surge along the continental shelf was developed , known as the Special Program to List the Amplitude of Surges from Hurricanes ( SPLASH ) . In 1978 , the first hurricane @-@ tracking model based on atmospheric dynamics – the movable fine @-@ mesh ( MFM ) model – began operating . Within the field of tropical cyclone track forecasting , despite the ever @-@ improving dynamical model guidance which occurred with increased computational power , it was not until the decade of the 1980s when numerical weather prediction showed skill , and until the 1990s when it consistently outperformed statistical or simple dynamical models . In the early 1980s , the assimilation of satellite @-@ derived winds from water vapor , infrared , and visible satellite imagery was found to improve tropical cyclones track forecasting . The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ) hurricane model was used for research purposes between 1973 and the mid @-@ 1980s . Once it was determined that it could show skill in hurricane prediction , a multi @-@ year transition transformed the research model into an operational model which could be used by the National Weather Service in 1995 . 
