Bad news for Canadians: La Niña defies odds to continue this summer
Bad news for some Canadians: La Niña defies odds to continue this summer
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ENSO-NEUTRAL AND LA NIÑA, IMPACTS TO CANADA?The difference between a ENSO-neutral and La Niña state can be significant, especially for the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña favours two key phenomena that trend to more hurricane activity than that of a neutral state.The first is warmer Atlantic Ocean waters, which is hurricane fuel. The warmer the waters are the more a hurricane can develop, strengthen and overachieve with rainfall amounts. The second factor has to do with the Atlantic trade winds. Strong trade winds work against the vertical development of a hurricane.However, La Niña tends to have weaker trade winds, so the counteractive measure is not present, allowing a hurricane to develop much easier than other global states.The change from a neutral to a La Niña state risks more frequent and stronger hurricanes. This information supports hyperactive outlooks such as the one from Colorado State University, suggesting future updates could come up even higher.In turn, this increases the likelihood that Canada may be impacted by these major storms more frequently than previously thought. It will be storm-track dependent however, but nevertheless, more and stronger storms provide more chances to roll the dice on seeing impacts to Canada this season.Now that La Niña is favoured through the summer, forecasters are worried that the upcoming hurricane season may exceed its outlooks.