Cars, retooling and jobs of the future
Cars, retooling and jobs of the future


	

		
			


	

	
		Lately I have been having quite a few discussions revolving around AI and automation. Most of these discussions seem to focus on a future with driver-less cars and the impending loss of millions of jobs in the logistics, taxi and transportation industries. This post will be slightly different than most AI/automation posts in that I do not intend to advocate for a new regime like UBI (universal basic income) or make any bold assertions, such as, job displacement has been happening for centuries and this one will work it’s way out without providing any specifics on how it will.  I want to stay with the ethos of the blog and try to propose solutions that can be implemented today that will help to alleviate the predicted job loss of the future.
Hyptothetical:
Without being specific to the auto industry at first I would like to propose a hypothetical. In New Jersey it is required by law that an attendant must pump gas for customers at a gas station. There are arguments for and against this, but for sake of the hypothetical let’s forget about pros and cons. Now let’s say the New Jersey government says they intend to repeal this law in 4 years. New Jersey knows that this law may affect 10s of thousands of jobs in the state and chooses to provide subsidies to anyone who is a gas station attendant to attend a trade school or local community college to re-skill to try and ease the pain that repealing the legislation would create.
Fast forward 4 years when the legislation is repealed and it is no longer required for gas stations to have attendants on staff. Naturally most gas stations would choose to cut these jobs to remove the expense from the bottom line. The attendants that are left that were unsuccessful to find a job in 4 years will still be able to collect unemployment while seeking another job. Could the state have done more in this scenario or did it do everything in it’s power to help those affected try to retool and be successful elsewhere?
Relation to AI and Automation:
There seems to be bit of a qualm towards AI and automation and I would like to do the best to propose a solution by drawing a parallel from the above hypothetical. In the hypothetical there is a clearly defined demographic that is affected by a change that were given a notice to an uncertain (gas stations could still choose to keep their attendant, but would not be required by law) yet predictable outcome. The notice in the hypothetical is clearly defined, but for sake of this post assume that notice means a foreseen loss of job due to the direction of the industry. In the hypothetical:
clearly defined demographic: The population of gas attendants in the state of New Jersey
change: The government intends to repeal a law that requires gas stations to have attendants.
notice: The government provides a 4-year notice before the law is repealed.
The Parallel:
The parallel is not the best for the displacement of drivers, but here is my take:
notice: For the case with drivers I predict the rollout will take a lot longer than most people project. The rollout for automated cars is still years away on the aggressive end and will still take many more years to come for the entire industry to be replaced. There are still cars from the 80’s on the streets and transit organizations are notoriously slow to embrace change. By my predictions (and I want to be careful wagering any predictions) would be that full rollout is not for another 40-50 years. There may be cars produced without steering wheels well into the future, but I would not see this for another 70 years.
change: As another hypothetical let’s say the MTA (New York’s transportation organization) announces they will replace their fleet of buses with a driver-less fleet but intends to slowly replace them over 10 years.
clearly defined demographic: For this example, the current set of bus drivers will receive subsidies to go back to school to retool. If they cannot find time, then as the city rolls out more automated buses they can share shifts with coworkers while maintaining a steady salary and using the spare time to go back to school.
The Solution:
From both hypotheticals, the state provides suitable notice and a means to help those affected to retool through subsidized education. If the schools are overloaded the government may sponsor their own programs, or now with MOOCs becoming more widely accepted, may negotiate a way for the affected demographic to sign up for a discounted rate to these online programs.
In both hypotheticals there is a clearly defined demographic that receives subsidies from the government to help reposition themselves for a more sustainable career in the future.
 Conclusion:
In my opinion it is not in the best interest of everyone to fight against progress in the name of keeping jobs. If automated transit proves to be safer, more efficient and more convenient impeding it’s progress will not help anybody. We need to embrace change while still caring and providing for everyone. I believe this is possible and have provided hypothetical solutions to these problems. There will be friction as people lose jobs they love and say bye to coworkers they enjoy working with, it’s never easy. I don’t believe UBI is the answer, but I believe the government does have a role in helping to retool the population for jobs of the future.
The comfort I wish to try to convey through this message. These changes are not happening overnight. People are not seeking profits so much that they will willingly kick people to the curb so as to increase their share of the pie. Everybody matters and everybody needs purpose, there are people out there that want to help as long as you are willing to learn and be receptive. Please share and help ease the anxiety about the future, we should all be working and hoping for a better future instead of living in uncertainty.

			
						

	


			
	
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