[Blitzer:] Happening now, outrage. Firefighters tending to a swimming pool instead of helping storm victims. The Republican veepstakes and a closer look at two top contenders. Plus a spectacular Fourth of July failure. I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM. President Obama and his challenger, Mitt Romney, they are now bracing for the new jobs report that's due out tomorrow morning, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Kate, they're going to be looking at this, studying it. There's going to be fallout.
[Kate Bolduan, Cnn Correspondent:] They're going to be looking at it, we're going to be looking at it. That's absolutely right. We're going to get the June unemployment numbers from the Labor Department 8:30 Eastern tomorrow morning. If it's good news, the president will use it as ammo to show he's boosting the economy. If it's bad news, you can be assured Mitt Romney will say it's evidence that the president's policy aren't working. So let's take a look at where things stand right now. The unemployment rate is 8.2 percent. That means 12.7 million Americans are out of work. But there's something else to keep an eye on here, the number of jobs added. It's been steadily going down this year. Take a look at this. In January, 275,000 jobs were created. In February, it was 259,000 new jobs. That dipped 143,000 new jobs. In March, 77,000 new jobs. In April in May, we were down to 69,000 new jobs. And keep in mind: analysts say the economy needs to create about 125,000 new jobs each month just to hold the unemployment rate where it is. This is definitely something we're going to be watching.
[Blitzer:] See if that trend continues to go down or begins to go back up a little bit. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Let's talk about what's going on with our with our panelists right now. Joining us our CNN contributor. That would be you, Ryan Lizza. He's a Washington correspondent for "The New Yorker." Also joining us, Neera Tanden, she's president of the Center for American Progress. A former senior adviser to President Obama on health care, Doug Holtz- Eakin is joining us, as well. He's president of the American Action Forum, former director of the Congressional Budget Office under the George W. Bush administration. It also helped John McCain four years ago. As I well recall. Thanks for all of you for coming in. Neera, the trend lines we've seen, dramatically not good. It's got to start picking up over the next four months. This right direction, wrong direction is a critical factor in getting an incumbent re- elected.
[Neera Tanden, President, Center For American Progress:] That's true. We've seen people's views of how they're going to be a year out, two years out is improving. We had a poll that 58 percent of Americans think they will be better off in the next year. That's an important issue. Trend lines are important. Gas prices are coming down. We still have headwinds from Europe. So we'll all be anxiously looking at this set of issues. But I do think for this election the question is really not only what these numbers are saying but really who has the right vision. And today Bill Kristol really criticized Mitt Romney for not having an economic vision. And I agree with him.
[Blitzer:] He's a he's a conservative. He's a Republican. You agree with him for different reasons than what he was suggesting.
[Tanden:] But Doug, on the unemployment numbers, I mean, this is definitely your area, it seems for the challenger kind of a Catch-22. The Romney campaign, of course, wants the unemployment rate to go down. It's good for the country but, you know, in a Catch-22 situation, it might not be good politics because it might help President Obama.
[Doug Holtz-eakin, President, American Action Forum:] Well, I think actually there's a bigger opportunity than that, because almost regardless of tomorrow's report, it's not going to be good enough to put the president in good standing. Most people are expecting something that looks a lot like the last two months, which are very disappointing. Probably a little bit higher. The unemployment rate could tick up or down. But I think the real opportunity lies on the insides of this, which is in this recovery, we've seen no real growth in incomes. So, for those who have jobs, they're not getting any better off. And tomorrow's report you ought to look inside and see if that changes. If that doesn't change, that's a big problem for President Obama. Because that's the swing state problem.
[Blitzer:] And that's a fair point, because there's a lot of people who do have jobs now, but not necessarily at the salary they used to have and not necessarily full-time jobs, but they're listed as being employed.
[Ryan Lizza, Cnn Contributor:] Absolutely. If you look historically at the best economic indicator that's correlated with who wins the presidency, it is disposable income. It is money in your pockets. Not necessarily the unemployment rates, although the direction matters, but it's how much money do you have in your pocket when you go into that voting booth. I think we're getting into the area here, getting into July and August, where these you know, voters are myopic. They look at the most recent economic indicators. They look at the most recent status of their financial situation. We're getting into the danger zone for Obama, where he won't be able to reverse these numbers if they get bad. I think the worse the economic numbers get, the harder the Obama campaign is going to be hitting Mitt Romney. Because if they can't win on their record and on the economy, they've got to destroy Romney.
[Blitzer:] We're talking maybe 10 percent who are undecided or might switch their votes. Forty-five percent or so are basically going to vote for President Obama. Forty-five percent or so are basically going to vote for Mitt Romney. So this 10 percent that's fluid, they're going to be influenced by economic trends over the next few months.
[Tanden:] Yes, but I think I really want to focus on this point about what the solutions are. Because I think the challenges I do think people recognize it's not just a question of the economic circumstances, because really it's who has the best vision going forward. And I think that the reason why Mitt Romney is taking this level of criticism that he is, even in a time where he's doing well by some measures, is because people are really people on the right are concerned that he doesn't have a vision for this economy. And I think that is a real challenge for Mitt Romney.
[Blitzer:] And that is the "Wall Street Journal" lead editorial. And Douglas, you read that editorial.
[Holtz-eakin:] It's true and that's a wake-up call. I certainly didn't need coffee this morning as I read it. But I think there's going to start to be the same challenge to the president, who has said not one thing about what he would do in a second term. And so I think you can make that claim only so far, and then both are going to be challenged to say what what are you going to do, you know, come January 2013, exactly.
[Tanden:] But the president has put forward ideas over and over again to get this economy moving that have been stalled by Republicans. A transportation Bill that should have been a no-brainer had to wait until the last minute because of House Republican intransigence. So he has put forward ideas. I agree he should put forward additional ideas. But he has put forward real ideas.
[Blitzer:] Stick around. Everybody stick around. We have more to discuss. You guys are not leaving. We're all going to be here.
[Bolduan:] Not letting you leave. Thank you.
[Blitzer:] Up next, President Obama had some company on the campaign trail, courtesy of the Romney camp. We'll talk about the dueling bus tour. Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.