[Keilar:] Our next guest is a professor by trade but he dabbles in the prediction business. Allan Lichtman likes to say that he can predict the outcome of any U.S. presidential election, and who can really argue because he has been right every time since 1984. But this year, even he is a little bit stumped right now. So, why is 2016 so unpredictable? Let's ask Allan Lichtman. He is a distinguished professor of history at American University, and he's joining us right now. OK, I do want to ask you about 2016, but first, explain this. It's 13 keys, basically markers that you came up with, conditions that will determine if the opposing party is going to thwart the incumbent party. How did you come up with this and just give us a sense of what these markers are?
[Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Profession, American University, Presidential Historian:] Yes, I actually came up with it totally, of course, by accident. Back in 1981 when I was a visiting scholar at Caltech, I met another visiting scholar, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the world's authority from Moscow on earthquake prediction. And we decided we'd apply the methods of earthquake prediction to elections to figure out if there'd be stability. The party holding the White House keeps the White House. Or an earthquake. The party holding the White House loses. And we looked at every election from 1860 to 1980 and we came up with 13 key factors, truefalse questions, which favor the re-election of the party in power. The basic theory is the American people are pragmatic. We're not driven by the ads, the speeches, and tricks of the campaign. We give the party in power four more years if they performed well enough and the 13 keys are designed to gauge that. If six or more go against the party in power, they lose. The party holding the White House, now the Democrats, otherwise they win. And we've since applied that, as you say, to every election ahead of time since 1984.
[Keilar:] And we're looking at some of the keys now and some of these take a little bit of explaining. Like, you see party mandate and that's actually very scientific. It's that after the midterm elections you have the incumbent party that is holding more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than they did after the previous midterm election. So you look at 2014, how that compares to 2010 and it's really scientific stuff here. In 2016, as we look towards November, you're unsure what's going to happen. Tell us why that is and tell us if you think when you think you'll be able to the call.
[Lichtman:] Yes, this is the most puzzling election I've yet seen, and here's why. First of all, the Democrats are now down four keys. Remember, they're the party in power. Six keys and they're out. But, two keys are still hanging balance. Key number two is the internal party contest key for the party in power. Right now the best friend Donald Trump has ever had is Bernie Sanders. By protracting a nomination struggle that he cannot mathematically win, he has put that key in jeopardy and vastly increased the chances that Donald Trump is going to be elected president. If Sanders wants to see Trump stopped, he's got to unite behind the obvious nominee, Hillary Clinton. So, this critical contest key is right now in abeyance. The other key is key number 11, the foreign policy success key. You know, there have been a lot of initiatives on the part of the Obama administration that could be regarded as big successes. The Iran nuclear agreement, you can argue, averted a nuclear arms race in the most unstable region of the world, maybe even a nuclear war. The breakthrough with Cuba is historic but Obama hasn't sold it to the American people. So, here's my advice to President Obama. Forget conventional campaigning. The keys say conventional campaigning has never, ever made a difference in turning a presidential election. Instead, sell your accomplishments to the American people. You're the great communicator, you can do it. Secure key number 11 for your party and Hillary Clinton will be the next president. Otherwise, it could well be Trump.
[Keilar:] The last key and this is pretty interesting to me about how you judge this because some of these are not how I would think that they would fall. But when it comes to challenger charisma this idea that the challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero, or perhaps they are. How does Donald Trump shape up with that because I think a lot of people would say this is a guy who clearly has charisma? He is attracting people. There's almost even this sort of cult of personality that that is the reason why people are drawn to him. But how does this work out when you're scoring him?
[Lichtman:] Brianna, when you buy my book and all your viewers buy my book you'll see how carefully these keys are actually defined. And while Donald Trump certainly does have a degree of charisma, the reason he doesn't win that key is his appeal is very, very limited. It's limited to a particular slice of the electorate. He has the highest negatives going into the general election campaign of any candidate in the history of polling. Whereas, the once in a generation kinds of candidates that have been tabbed as charismatic, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, have had broad charismatic rather than narrow charismatic appeal. Sorry Trump, you don't get that key.
[Keilar:] It's really fascinating stuff, Dr. Lichtman. Thank you so much for it. I really geeked out your keys here. I'm going to keep monitoring them as we move towards November. Thank you so much for being with us.
[Lichtman:] Sure. Have me back when I make a final prediction.
[Keilar:] Yes, we certainly will. All right, Dr. Lichtman, thank you so much.
[Lichtman:] Thank you.
[Keilar:] Now, we are following a lot of news, includingwhether or not the GOP can achieve party unity, so let's get to it.
[Ryan:] I was very encouraged.
[Trump:] I thought it was a great meeting. I think Paul felt the same way.
[Ryan:] We are now planting the seeds to get ourselves unified.
[Reince Priebus, Chairman, Republican National Committee:] It's a positive first step toward unifying our party.
[Unidentified Male:] This idea of the party coming together and uniting is crucial.
[Hillary Clinton , Presidential Candidate:] I certainly want to be delivering on the challenges that still lie ahead of us.
[Sanders:] It is our campaign which will result in a Democratic victory in November.
[Unidentified Male:] When Hillary wins the nomination I believe everybody will endorse her and embrace her. This is CNN breaking news.
[Wolf Blitzer, Cnn Host, "the Situation Room":] Jimmy Kimmel has confirmed he is running for vice president.
[Jake Tapper, Cnn Host, "the Lead With Jake Tapper":] With which candidate?
[Jimmy Kimmel, Television Host, "jimmy Kimmel Live!":] Solo, or possibly with both candidates to maximize my chances.
[Blitzer:] Jimmy, do you think you're making a mockery of this election?
[Kimmel:] I think it's too late for anyone to do that, Wolf.
[Announcer:] This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota.
[Cuomo:] Good morning. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It's Friday, May 13th, 8:00 in the east. Alisyn is off. We've got Keilar on the right, we've got Berman on the left, now let's get after it.
[Berman:] And we're stuck in the middle with you.
[Cuomo:] Very well done, very well done. Donald Trump and Republican leaders burying the hatchet, celebrating a move toward unity. The party's presumptive nominee, House Speaker Paul Ryan, RNC chair Reince Priebus, emerging from yesterday's high-stakes, high-power summit with a commitment to work together. No endorsement yet from Ryan, but it seems that everything for Trump and the party is moving the right way. He's even got a big donor on board.
[Berman:] As for the Democrats, congressional leaders there are hoping that tying Trump to the Republican establishment will help them and, likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, in November. But Bernie Sanders say no so fast. He says he would pose as a tougher challenger to Donald Trump and he points at the polls to prove it. We are all over this, this morning. Let's begin with senior political reporter, Manu Raju, live in Washington. Good morning, Manu.
[Manu Raju, Cnn Senior Political Reporter:] Hey, John. Donald Trump may not be the party establishment candidate but he is actually the last man standing so the Republican Party leadership knows that they have to put the full backing of the Republican machinery behind him if they want any chance to defeat Hillary Clinton this fall. Now, yesterday when Donald Trump met with House Republicans and Senate Republicans, he spent a lot of time listening on concerns over immigration, to judges, to abortion. He even promised to nominate conservative justices to the Supreme Court.