[Robert Siegel:] Well, so much for the sounds of John McCain's week. The sounds of Barack Obama's week were a little different. That's right. He was on vacation, a family vacation, in Hawaii. In fact, John McCain was also off the campaign trail today. He just had breakfast with oil-man-turned-wind-energy-advocate T. Boone Pickens. For some review and analysis of the past week and what comes next in the campaign, I'm joined now by political observers Ruth Marcus, columnist for the Washington Post, and Matthew Continetti, associate editor of the Weekly Standard. Hi, welcome to the both of you.
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] Hi.
[Mr. Matthew Continetti:] Thank you.
[Robert Siegel:] Let's start with Russia and Georgia. Do we think that the events there actually, Ruth, have altered the U.S. political debate, and if so, is it really so much to Senator McCain's advantage as he seems to think?
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] Well, I think they may turn out to alter the political debate, and I think it is largely, but not entirely, to Senator McCain's advantage. On the plus side for Senator McCain, I think any time foreign policy comes up outside of increased bloodshed in Iraq, it's to Senator McCain's advantage. It underscores his experience. I think also that his in this situation, his first reaction on Georgia, his first statement turned out to be more prescient and more correct than either Senator Obama's or President Bush's, who were much more even-handed in their calling on both sides to stand down. I do think he runs a few risks. The first is seeming too bellicose. The American people had not heard of South Ossetia, I think it's safe to say, before last week. They're not really eager to get into an entanglement there. Will McCain's stance scare them off? Second, has Senator McCain been too interventionist? He's on the phone with President Saakashvili several times a day. He's sending his own emissaries there. That gets a little bit dicey. One could imagine if Senator Obama did that, that there would be a large hue and cry. And finally, the lobbyists. You know, three problems but still probably on balance better for him.
[Robert Siegel:] Do you agree, Matt?
[Mr. Matthew Continetti:] With parts of that. To me, this past week has been a mirror image of a few weeks ago with Barack Obama's international trip. That week, you had Obama being president, traveling to different countries, meeting with foreign leaders, meeting with General Petraeus, while John McCain was getting into trouble in grocery stores here on the campaign trail. This week, John McCain is being assertive. I totally agree with Ruth in that I think the real value of his statements in the beginning of the week were to prod the Bush administration to make a more active approach to this international crisis. Obama's on vacation. How it turns out politically, however, the race is still tied, the way it's been all summer, so...
[Robert Siegel:] Next topic, running mates. Your colleague at the Weekly Standard, Stephen Hayes, had a John McCain interview during which the Republican candidate floated the possibility of a pro-choice running mate like, say, Tom Ridge, the former Pennsylvania governor and secretary of homeland security. Do you think that McCain has sufficiently endeared himself to conservative Republicans that he can go moderate with a vice president?
[Mr. Matthew Continetti:] Well, when you look at the polls, Robert, you see that McCain is drawing more support from Republicans than Obama is drawing from Democrats. However, there's no question there's a huge enthusiasm gap among those Republicans compared with the Democrats for Obama, and of course there are just fewer Republicans. So I think McCain still does have a problem with his base that may be, you know, kind of exacerbated if he chooses a pro-choice candidate. However, he's also looking for those Hillary supporters you know, single women, women in general, white women in the suburbs who may find this choice of a pro-choice candidate for VP kind of unorthodox and something that they might like to see.
[Robert Siegel:] Ruth, thoughts on running mates either for McCain, or for Obama, for that matter?
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] Well, Senator McCain first. I do think that there has been this flirtation with the possibility of Governor Ridge, with the possibility of Senator Lieberman. I think if I might use a very mixed metaphor, picking Senator Lieberman would be something of a Hail Mary pass. For Senator McCain. And you know, I think Senator McCain has actually the second-mover advantage, if you will, on this. He will likely follow.
[Robert Siegel:] He can wait for Obama to pick his.
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] He can wait for Senator Obama. So he's got the luxury of sitting back, seeing who Senator Obama picks, adjusting his strategy accordingly. I think there's two schools of thought on the Republican side. One is it's time for the Hail Mary pass. We need to get the women. We need to reinforce his brand as a maverick. You know, forget the Republican brand. The other one is do no harm. Let's nail things down. Let's cement, say, Michigan and make a lot of raise a lot of money, and that would lead to Governor Romney.
[Robert Siegel:] Governor Romney. Matt, what do you think about the Democratic running mate?
[Mr. Matthew Continetti:] There I think Obama is going to play it safe. You know, he spent this summer has been in some ways Obama's moment to kind of, you know, get the left angry at him, and he did it with voting, for example, the FISA compromise legislation earlier this summer. Now there's a Facebook group now against Evan Bayh, the senator from Indiana that's tens of thousands of supporters, Obama supporters, strong. They don't want him to pick this reasonably centrist, somewhat hawkish even, senator, a centrist Democrat. If he did, I think it would anger the left, but these days Obama may want that as he tries to reassure the center.
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] I think that to be very crass about it, and I got in trouble for saying that somewhere the other day, but the problems in Russia and Georgia are up arrows, if you will, for Senator Bayh and also Senator Biden. They reinforce, I think...
[Robert Siegel:] Have someone who voted, say, pro-war on Iraq.
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] Not just pro-war, but somebody with extensive experience in foreign policy, and Senator Biden also brings to that appeal to older voters, which is another place where Senator Obama has fallen short. On the other hand, Senator Bayh, I saw him in Indiana with Obama the other day, and they looked pretty good together.
[Robert Siegel:] Ruth Marcus of the Washington Post, Matt Continetti of the Weekly Standard, thanks to both of you.
[Mr. Matthew Continetti:] Thank you.
[Ms. Ruth Marcus:] Thank you.