[Gene Randall, Cnn Anchor:] Despite all the twists and turns of a presidential primary season that threw a scare into both major party front-runners, we're back where we began, with Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore. It was that kind of Super Tuesday for each man.
[Bill Bradley , Former Presidential Candidate:] We been defeated, but the cause for which I ran has not been.
[Randall:] On the Republican side, Texas Governor George W. Bush also had a Super Tuesday to saver, as he put Senator John McCain's presidential drive into reverse.
[Gov. George W. Bush , Presidential Candidate:] We were challenged, and we met the challenge. We were tested, and we were equal to the test.
[Randall:] Bush won every major state. His victories in New York, Ohio, Georgia, Missouri and California made his losses in New Hampshire and Michigan distant memories. John McCain on Tuesday showed strength only in New England, and facing a next round of primaries that includes Bush strongholds Texas and Florida, McCain accepted a sign that read, end of the road.
[Sen. John Mccain , Presidential Candidate:] And I'm truly grateful for the distinct privilege of even being considered for the highest office in this, the greatest nation in the history of mankind.
[Randall:] And so the fall match-up of the two major parties: Where do Al Gore and George W. Bush go from here? And what now for Bradley and McCain voters? We pose those questions to a pair of distinguished political pollsters. From Atlanta, Republican Whit Ayres. And here in Washington, Democratic pollster Peter Hart. Gentlemen, welcome to you both. Peter Hart, let's first look at some numbers that you helped put together for "The Wall Street Journal." Experience and ability to be president: George W. Bush and Al Gore. What do the numbers say?
[Peter Hart, Democratic Pollster:] Well, what they really say is there's a huge stature gap for George W. Bush. Simply put, what we find is that Al Gore has a big 47 to 30 lead. But more important than that, voters see him as filling the chair of the president. They see George Bush as having a lot of room that he has to grow into.
[Randall:] Whit Ayres, what do you make of those numbers? And does Governor Bush indeed have a task of convincing people he is ready to be president.
[Whit Ayres, Republican Pollster:] Well, it doesn't surprise me that you'd have an incumbent vice president who has an advantage on experience. On the other hand, the voters are really disgusted with what's gone on in Washington recently. And who's better able to fix what's gone on in Washington? A man who's entire career has been outside of Washington, or a man like Al Gore, who's been at the very center of so many of those aspect of Washington that have disgusted so many voters? If the election gets defined on that basis of who can clean up Washington, I think Governor Bush wins on that criteria.
[Randall:] Now, the vice president clearly will use the ethics issue against Gore, trying to him to a president he will say has a lot of ethical baggage. Peter Hart, tell us about the numbers on that issue.
[Hart:] Well, interestingly enough, it's sort of dead even on that, with Gore having a slight 37 to 35 advantage in being honest and trustworthy. And Whit is absolutely right when he says there are a lot of voters that are trying to look beyond where we are, what's the next chapter. But, they're also looking for somebody who's going to deal with the central issues, and those, I think, work to Al Gore's advantage on Social Security and education.
[Randall:] And, Mr. Ayres, what do you make of those numbers?
[Ayres:] Well, first of all I'm not at all sure that the issues of March will be the issues of October. It's a long, long way to the election. But I do think one of the issues that has grown over the last few years in importance around the country is education. I think Governor Bush has a strong record on that. He's very comfortable talking about it. And I think once you start focusing in on education, he's going to do very well on that issue.
[Randall:] And, Mr. Ayres, does George W. Bush now need to retool his message, especially in trying to attract John McCain voters?
[Ayres:] Well, you know, there's so much conventional wisdom out there that suggests Governor Bush has gone too far to the right, and the conventional wisdom is just wrong. What matters is not the perspective of the pundits but the perspective of the voters. And all the indications are that the voters perceive both George W. Bush and Al Gore to be equidistant from the center. You've got, whether it's California exit polls or a "Washington Post" poll recently, a third of the voters think George W. Bush is too conservative, a third Al Gore is too liberal. That's a wash in my book, and I think they're going to be very, very close and very, very competitive for John McCain voters.
[Hart:] And what isn't a wash, Whit, is the fact that Al Gore comes out of the primary with a very united party behind him, and George W. Bush has some work on uniting his party. And that's going to be an important factor, coming months.
[Randall:] Mr. Hart...
[Ayres:] There's no question Peter's right on that.
[Randall:] Go ahead.
[Ayres:] There's some work to be done, and I fully expect John McCain and George Bush to get together and put their shoulders to the same wheel.
[Randall:] Mr. Hart, is there come concern in the Democratic camp, in the Gore camp, with the numbers of Democrats and independents who voted for John McCain this primary season?
[Hart:] Not surprising that it happened. It's mainly independents, but I think what it does say is that vote is going to be very much up for grabs. And you're going to have to be able to talk to both character and values that the McCain voters cared about but also talk to the issues that McCain talked to. I honestly believe that the McCain voters have to be won over, or else we'll see a smaller turnout.
[Randall:] Mr. Ayres, how important to George W. Bush is a McCain endorsement?
[Ayres:] Well, I don't know that a McCain endorsement is critical, but certainly getting McCain voters is critical. Peter's exactly right about that. And they are very much up for grabs right now. But I continue to believe that if the election gets defined as who's the better candidate to reform Washington, Governor Bush will eventually have an advantage on that measure.
[Randall:] Mr. Hart, there was some very harsh rhetoric in the race between Al Gore and Bill Bradley. Even when Bradley dropped out of the race, he was not exactly voicing a full-throated endorsements of the vice president. You alluded to the fact earlier that you think that the Democratic Party is in much better shape than the Republican Party coming out of this primary season, but, in fact, does Gore need to convince Bradley that he deserves a weighty endorsements?
[Hart:] I don't think that's his problem, because you see Democrats voting overwhelmingly for Al Gore against George W. Bush and it's not a problem, where you look at the Republicans, they are less certain at this stage of the game. Does he need to talk and have a good conversation with Bill Bradley? Absolutely. But Al Gore wants to be president. You can see it in his every pore. And I have no doubt he's going to do what he needs to do in order to win this election.
[Randall:] And both of you, address yourselves to the strengths of your candidates as you see them Mr. Ayres.
[Ayres:] I think that Governor Bush has a strong record outside of Washington, which is critical. He's got a strong record as a chief executive, which I think voters will deem to be critical for the presidency. I think he's got a strong record on many of the issue, like education, that are very important to people. And fundamentally, I think he's a likable candidate. A lot of people downplay that, but that's one of the reasons why Ronald Reagan was so popular. And I think ultimately voters are going to decide that George W. Bush is a good, decent human being who truly want to do the best thing he can for the country. And I think that matters.
[Randall:] Mr. Hart, are you sold?
[Hart:] I'm not quite sold, Whit. Sorry about that. But I'll tell you about Al Gore. Al Gore, I think, number one, fills the chair. And that means that people feel comfortable that he can handle the job terribly important, critical consideration. Secondly, he's got a marvelous economy working for him. And the third thing that is there is the issues, both the education, Social Security and the raft of Democratic issues that are working this election.
[Randall:] Mr. Hart and Mr. Ayres, thank you very much. When we come back, the view from the road that ended in Sedona. Stay with us. Welcome back. With me now, from "USA TODAY," national correspondent Tom Squitieri, proud new father of baby Gabriela; and from "Time" magazine, well used to the rigors of being a parent, Karen Tumulty. And I welcome you both. Tom, you were with John McCain at Sedona, Arizona when he said he was suspending his campaign. Were you convinced by his assertion that the Republican Party is his home, a home he loves?
[Tom Squitieri, "usa Today":] I am convinced by that. There's a small, small, small factor of his team that want him to go on and run as an independent. And I think in his heart he would like to in the sense of carrying on his message, but he is a Republican, and he believes in the party, that he can change the party, if he stays in it, to adapt it. He's going to have a high price for George W. Bush to come over and support him. I think he sees that as his way to move the party.
[Randall:] Karen, does Al Gore assume automatically he will get the Democratic voters who went for John McCain in the primaries?
[Karen Tumulty, "time":] Not at all, not at all. And really, these McCain voters are sort of the jump ball of the rest of this election season. It was interesting to hear in his victory speech I was there Tuesday night in Nashville he immediately made a play for the McCain voters by name by comparing his own evolution on the campaign finance issue to Senator McCain.
[Randall:] Clinton would have named each one, of course.
[Tumulty:] Right.
[Randall:] Now, Karen, let's look at the issue of ethics, because it seems clear that the Bush campaign is intent on tying ethical baggage they will say is claimed by President Clinton to Al Gore. Now tell us what you know about what's going on in the Bush campaign in this direction.
[Tumulty:] Well, and not just President Clinton's ethical baggage but Gore's own ethical baggage, and particularly how what role he played in the fund-raising scandals. It was interesting that both campaigns, the first strategy session they had after winning the nomination at party headquarters was with the research people not the money people, not the message people, the research people. And research in politics is a euphemism for digging up dirt on the other guy.
[Randall:] And, Tom, what do you make of these "Wall Street Journal" numbers that Peter Hart was citing a moment ago that when it comes to character and trustworthiness, at this point, Gore has better numbers than Bush?
[Squitieri:] That's interesting, because I think people have really not associated Gore with the, quote, "Clinton-Gore scandals." And you can be sure that George Bush will try to be hammering at that. The report that came out late last week about the campaign finance stuff that Janet Reno should have had an independent counsel, the Republicans are salivating over that, because that gives them an opportunity to open that door.
[Randall:] Now wasn't it just a few months ago that George W. Bush was leading either Bradley or Al Gore by double digits?
[Squitieri:] Double digits.
[Randall:] And now we have two major polls within the margin of error. What does that mean for Al Gore and George W. Bush, Karen?
[Tumulty:] These poll numbers are just astonishing if you look at where the two candidates were a few months ago. And I think that what it says is that Al Gore has come through his primary season in a stronger position and that George W. Bush has, in fact, been weakened and damaged by his primary challenge. And, you know, he has eight months now to make it up, but he's definitely starting out in a much weaker position than any of us thought he would.
[Squitieri:] It's even a deeper hole yes, Gene for Bush, when you look at the state-by-state polls, because the big states, California and New York, they're already strongly in favor of Gore. And it looks like the elect will come down to the Rust Belt right now, New Jersey across to Michigan. And that generally can favor a Democrat.
[Randall:] Now what do you think about the question of George W. Bush having to retool his campaign, or does he run as the same George W. Bush who ran in South Carolina?
[Squitieri:] No, he needs to retool. I mean, he had painted himself into a right-handed corner down in South Carolina, and just as the Republicans will use campaign finance, Gore is already thinking about using, you know, the flag, the Confederate flag-waving right- wing Republicans. And that will tend to isolate Bush off from the center, where those voters in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, et cetera are located.
[Randall:] Karen, what happened to the compassionate conservative who was going to unify rather than divide?
[Tumulty:] Oh, you'll be hearing a lot from him again. He's unpacked his bags and he's out again. But I do think that a lot this is going to be a very bitter, very nasty campaign. And Al Gore's strategy is going to make George W. Bush look scary, and George W. Bush's strategy is going to be to make Al Gore look sleazy.
[Randall:] But is Bush a better candidate because of the primary season and the challenge from McCain? And is Al Gore a better candidate because of the challenge from Bill Bradley, which ultimately eroded?
[Tumulty:] Well, again, George W. Bush was damaged and certainly damaged in the polls by this campaign. But he learned a very important lesson, which is that this election like this nomination is not going to be handed to him, and he's going to have get out there and work for it, which he wasn't doing a few months ago.
[Randall:] Tom.
[Squitieri:] I think Gore comes out stronger because of the test from Bradley. He learned how to adapt early and was consistent with his attack and messages. Bush was all over the place and really doesn't know what he's going to go from here.
[Randall:] Do you take these numbers at face value today showing a neck-and-neck race if the election were held today?
[Tumulty:] Well, I would say especially since they are within the margin of error we've got eight months to go, but I have a feeling that this is starting to look like it is going to be a very close election.
[Randall:] And if it's going to be slash and burn, Tom, how long before we realize that?
[Squitieri:] I think that we'll start seeing it early in June, late in June, and then really after the convention.
[Tumulty:] I know. I say...
[Randall:] Karen?
[Tumulty:] ... well what time is it now?
[Randall:] Karen and Tom, thank you very much. And, Tom, congratulations to you and the wife on the baby.
[Squitieri:] Thank you very much. Everything you said was true.
[Randall:] All the best.