[Alex Chadwick:] The avian flu virus has claimed another victim. Authorities in Thailand say a 48-year-old man became the 67th person known to be killed by the virus. And it's no longer confined to Southeast Asia. Yesterday Russia announced the flu virus has just been found 123 miles south of Moscow in birds there. Politicians and pandemic experts across the world are now worried about handling not only the virus, but the fear and panic that might follow the outbreak of a pandemic. Ira Flatow, host of NPR's "Science Friday" and regular Thursday contributor to DAY TO DAY, joins us. Ira, a Spanish official is quoted on a Spanish radio station as saying that the threat of the pandemic has been overblown, calls it, quote, "science fiction," implying that we're being driven by fear rather than rationality. Is fear driving this crisis?
[Ira Flatow:] Well, it is true so far that no pandemic has broken out. There are no real cases of flu actually being spread from people to people, which would signal that it has entered its most dangerous phase, so in a sense, that official is right. But waiting around for that to happen, and most virologists say it is just a matter of time until it does happen, is very shortsighted. Remember, there were 50 million deaths from bird flu in 1918, certainly a sobering number. And I might point out that the Spanish government itself has bought six to 10 million doses of Tamiflu. You know, one of the problems not yet fully addressed is how to deal with the grim realities of public reaction when a pandemic does break out.
[Alex Chadwick:] And I think we all are-have in mind the chaos that we saw after Hurricane Katrina.
[Ira Flatow:] Yeah, and we're talking about this magnified in a much bigger way. Katrina exposed the challenges you face from a disaster when you're not prepared for it, things like how do you mobilize all those organizations that need to work together, the doctors, the police, the hospitals. How would the medical infrastructure hold up to the onslaught? You know, they have all never been fully tested to deal with a pandemic that is projected to kill up to two million to three million Americans alone.
[Alex Chadwick:] President Bush has talked about the possibility of calling up the military to handle any quarantine. That would be one of the first actions, quarantine, yes?
[Ira Flatow:] Yes, and in addition, you would expect that once the pandemic starts, governments around the world are going to be getting very protective and start closing off their borders; no people, no commerce may be permitted to cross the borders, perhaps for weeks or months at a time. And look what the mad cow disease, for example, did to the beef industry. What would it do to the poultry industry once this pandemic starts, not to mention just the food? How do you handle the people being quarantined? People are going to be afraid to leave their homes. They're not going to go to work. They're not going to go to school. There are going to be millions of people like this. Businesses are going to close down. How do you handle the panic? And of course, in the worst-case scenario, how do you handle the millions of dead people, literally? It sounds morbid, but it is. We saw that awful tragedy in New Orleans. Imagine that being multiplied by a thousand or two.
[Alex Chadwick:] Ira, let me go back to something you said earlier. When you said that scientists say this is not a matter of if but when the outbreak of a pandemic, are you speaking of this bird flu, or that eventually some pandemic will afflict us?
[Ira Flatow:] Some bird flu pandemic will afflict us. This is not the first time that this strain has showed up, or a bird flu has shown up. And if we look at history back into 1918, we've just discovered a few weeks ago that that was a bird flu that became virulent in the population of people. It was spread by people to people. So when people talk about this, when scientists talk about this, they don't talk about this as if it's going to happen sometime, they just say it's a matter of time.
[Alex Chadwick:] Ira Flatow, host of "Science Friday," regular Thursday contributor to DAY TO DAY. Thank you, Ira.
[Ira Flatow:] You're welcome.
[Alex Chadwick:] Stay with us on DAY TO DAY from NPR News.