[Burnett:] Tonight, President Trump speaking at a rally in Tucson, Arizona. That is his second rally in the state today. Trump encouraging voters to go to the polls early.
[Trump:] Everybody needs to get out and vote, return your absentee ballot or vert. You can go out there I think today, when do you do it, today, tomorrow, whatever. You can go out and vote today they say, today go out and vote.
[Burnett:] Well, I'm glad if he's telling them to return those absentee ballots. He apparently has confidence in them not being a rigged election. Well, that's a separate point. Arizona has 11 electoral votes though really are crucial in the path to 270 and who wins the White House. Phil Mattingly is OUTFRONT. So Phil, President Trump had two rallies in the state today. Biden and Harris were there just over a week ago. This has become the really crucial state for both campaigns.
[Phil Mattingly, Cnn Congressional Correspondent:] Yes, there's no question about it. For the Biden campaign, it expands their options. For the Trump campaign, it keeps in live several pathways that are already narrowing when you look at the numbers right now. I want to track back to 2016. Going to Arizona back in 2016, Donald Trump won the state of Arizona 90,000 votes about three and a half points. But Erin, this was the smallest margin of victory for Republican since 1996. When Bill Clinton won the state and Democrats have been eyeing this state and it's shifting demographics for a number of years. This is the year they feel like they can capitalize. Now the Trump campaign, as you noted, it didn't just visit today and do multiple rallies, over the course of this year, they have been several times, six different times across the state, underscoring how important this state with a hard very rock solid Trump base, but still shifting demographics means to them over the course of their time. Now, the Biden campaign only one visit up to this point very recently, but keep an eye on what they're doing on the spending front. Look at the amount of money the Biden campaign has poured into this state, $32 million, more than $12 million than the Trump campaign. You've got outside groups as well, all underscoring, Erin, that for both campaigns, Arizona, which was once considered rock solid Republican wasn't really considered on the map until maybe late in 2016. Arizona has not only very much in play, but for Democrats, they think it could be firmly in their column by the end of this campaign.
[Burnett:] So when you talk about expanding the map for Biden, but keeping a path open for Trump, can President Trump win reelection without Arizona though?
[Mattingly:] Yes. Technically, yes, but Erin, I would note no Republican ever has won the White House without winning the state of Arizona. I want to talk about limiting pathways, what I was referring to at the beginning, when you talk about President Trump. What you're looking at right now is CNN's race ratings up to this point. You see when you factor in states where Biden is leaning or states that are leaning towards Biden, he's already above the 270 electoral math that he needs to actually win. So let's game some things out. If you look at the yellow, these are toss ups right now. So say you give every toss up to President Trump and his campaign. He wins Florida, he wins Georgia, he wins North Carolina, he wins Ohio, he wins Iowa, he's still short of the number that he needs. So if he wins Arizona, that obviously brings him a lot sorry, that brings him a lot closer, when you get closer to that 270 mark. He still can't win with just that number. That brings in a bunch of the midwest states that obviously everybody is very keen on right now. But Erin, I think the big question right now for the Trump campaign is when you look at the polling when you talk to people on the ground in states like Michigan, and states like Wisconsin and states like Minnesota that the Trump campaign thought they had real openings towards, they feel like those doors may be closing. If you win Pennsylvania, you still have to win Arizona to get above that 270 mark for the Trump campaign, Erin.
[Burnett:] All right. So obviously it becomes really much when you look at it that way. All right. Phil, thank you very much. So let's go to Van Jones now, former Special Adviser to President Obama and Scott Jennings, former senior advisor to Senator Mitch McConnell. So Van, you look at that map, but then you see headlines like this, why democrats remain nervous about Biden's chances and like this time in 2016, Trump looks doomed to defeat, that's why Democrats are worried. A Biden campaign memo comes out from the manager of the campaign, "Donald Trump can still win this race." So Van, is this just hand wringing and trying to get turnout up or is there legitimately something there that they're worried about?
[Van Jones, Cnn Political Commentator:] Yes. There is legitimately something there. And as you remember, quite famously this time four years ago, I was screaming and waving my arms around. At that point Democrats say, be quiet, you're demoralizing people and you look like an idiot for saying that Trump can still win. Nobody is saying that now and here's the reasons. Number one, polls are only as good as the people you talk to and what they tell you. You've got a whole big iceberg of white guys, conservative white guys, who actually didn't even vote in 2016. I've got sources telling me about a third to 25 percent which was third of the people going to these rallies didn't even vote for Trump in 2016. Didn't tell them they didn't vote at all. They're therefore not likely voters, they're probably not being talked to. As that iceberg thaws, what do you expect to see, voter registration and that's what you're seeing, a surge of Republican voter registration. There's a big iceberg of votes for him that are not being polled, they're coming in the sink is more likely to be very close. Do not believe the promise of the polls, rely on the power of the people, run all the way through the tape, this thing could go any direction.
[Burnett:] All right. So which are really interesting point when you say, I mean, I know it's anecdotal, but your source is saying that you got a quarter to a third of people going to Trump rallies who weren't even Trump voters last time. That's pretty powerful. Yet, Scott, what you also have on the other side here is like let's just take senator John Cornyn, up for reelection. So he's evaluating what he sees on the ground and what he sees is giving him cause to distance himself from the President. His comment in a recent interview is that Trump is, "Like a lot of women who get married and think they're going to change their spouse, and that doesn't usually work out very well." So these are senators who are on the ground up for reelection who clearly see being close to Trump is not a good thing. What does that tell you? Are they wrong?
[Scott Jennings, Former Special Assistant To President George W. Bush:] Well, I don't totally agree with the fact that they don't see being close to Trump is a good thing. If they really thought that, they wouldn't be voting with Donald Trump 90 plus percent of the time. Stylistically, John Cornyn is very much different than Donald Trump and that's true for a lot of the senators that are on the ballot this year. And I don't see these comments as an effort to distance. I see them as honest answers to questions from reporters who are finally covering these big Senate races. So I just think the idea that you would distance yourself from a president of your own party with two weeks to go in an election I mean, nobody believes the John Cornyn is not running in the party of Donald Trump in Texas, but that doesn't mean John Cornyn can't express some disagreement stylistically with Donald Trump down the stretch. So I think it's easy to override this and it was happening in a couple of races, but especially in Texas, I think Trump and Cornyn are likely to wind down there and have a similar vote totals.
[Burnett:] OK. So Van, let me play something the President said on that campaign call. I was playing some of the Fauci part earlier, let me play something about the election.
[Trump:] We're going to win. I wouldn't have said that three weeks ago. Three weeks ago, two weeks ago I don't know, I wouldn't have said it. It was tougher for me.
[Burnett:] OK. So the reason I played that, Van, is he's talking about two or three weeks. Now, he needs to say that but nonetheless in the last month of 2016, you had a lot of late decided voters and of those late decider voters, more of them went for Trump than Clinton big time, you saw that. Now, this is not an election where people are undecided, you're pointing out it could really be about new voters and new registration. But do you think that Trump is right, this two or three-week window is perhaps changed things?
[Jones:] Listen, we still evaluate the Trump campaign based on 1996 criteria like well, how much money is he spending on television and stuff like that. They have a big operation online. And you may have noticed that you have friends and relatives who are starting to sound completely bizarre to you. They're talking about pedophilia and all kinds of bizarre stuff, why? Because they're being bombarded online with one of the most sophisticated influence operations that you've ever seen and that is going to have an effect. And so they probably have some data that is showing that some of this stuff is starting to eat in. We don't know how strong these floorboards are under these numbers and how much the termites of disinformation online. And frankly, just persuasion online and motivation online is affecting us. You don't see the same ads that your cousin does on Facebook. You don't see the same post that friends does on Instagram. That's a big deal in terms of we don't know what's going on and he could have data that we don't have.
[Burnett:] Scott, quick final word.
[Jennings:] Yes, I agree with Van. The Trump campaign does have sophisticated online organizing tools. They've also been utilizing traditional field organizing tools. They're actually going door to door, Van's point at the start of the segment was true. They've had huge success on voter registration. To overcome a polling deficit, you have to have some kind of field campaign that maybe the polling isn't picking up. That's what they're banking on. The question is, is it enough? And I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks.
[Erin Burnett, Cnn:] All right. Thank you both. And next, Trump and Biden days away from facing off at their final debate. And now the president's campaign wants a major change. So we'll tell you what. Plus, breaking news. A big upset for Trump and his campaign and their efforts to stop from ballots from being counted.