[This Is A Rush Transcript. This Copy May Not Be In Its Final Form And May Be Updated. Shihab Rattansi:] Ramadan has begun, but the bombing continues in Afghanistan. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf had asked the international coalition to end its bombing by today. But as that likelihood receded, the General emphasized the primacy of coalition's military objectives over religious sensitivities. But now Kabul, as well as large swathes of northern Afghanistan, have fallen to the Northern Alliance. The guarantees General Musharraf asked for that Alliance troops remain outside of Kabul have been eviscerated. That's raised fears that despite General Musharraf's pledge of allegiance with the United States, Pakistan will have little say in the future of Afghanistan. Tonight on
[Q&a;:] Is Pakistan losing the war in Afghanistan? And good evening. Welcome to Q&A.; I'm Shihab Rattansi. Jim Clancy is on assignment. As the Northern Alliance solidifies its hold in Afghanistan, attention is already being turned to the political consequences. Pakistan is the neighbor, that some say, has the most to win or lose in the conflict in Afghanistan. There's concern that the eventual Afghan government could be hostile to the country. Earlier, I talked with Major General Rashid Qureshi, the spokesman for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf. I first asked the major general what he thought of reports that Osama bin Laden had managed to escape and get to Pakistan's border.
[Major General Rashid Qureshi, Spokesman For Pakistan's President:] It's ridiculous. Frankly, there's no if they have information of the location of Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar, why don't they tell us. And, so I wonder who has initiated this. It seems to be a similar report as what we heard yesterday, about Pakistan sending two transport planes to get out Pakistan military personnel. I think it has no basis.
[Rattansi:] But the border region is of concern to Pakistan. We have had reports over the last few days that you've heavily fortified the whole area.
[Qureshi:] Yes, that is true. Pakistan has reinforced the border. It has reinforced the scouts that we have which man the border. We've also got people in depth. Some troops have been moved forward so that for two, three reasons. One, we don't want people, Afghan refugees or whoever they may be, coming across the border. And we'd like to monitor exactly who comes across.
[Rattansi:] None the less, there are real concerns that the Taliban may still be being supplied from the border region, that they may flee to that area, and indeed, an area where many of the locals are still perfectly in tune with their cause. And they might even try and destabilize Islamabad from there.
[Qureshi:] No, I don't think any such thing would happen. Yes, it's a very long border. It's a porous border. So, therefore, we need that's why needed to beef it up, but we are going to make sure that all routes that come from there are monitored. And we will even use, maybe, vehicles and helicopter patrols to monitor everyone who comes in. We've already announced very clearly that no refugees are allowed into Pakistan from Afghanistan except on extreme humanitarian grounds. And anyone else will be dealt with according to law.
[Rattansi:] You mentioned that the reports that we were getting about Pakistani military personnel being evacuated from Konduz were erroneous. We are also getting reports that Pakistan is very concerned about the fate of thousands of international fighters in the region and that you're trying to get safe passage for them. Are those reports erroneous as well?
[Qureshi:] Oh, absolutely not. They were we have no information about what you call thousands of personnel who are fighting there. And there has been no effort whatsoever to evacuate anyone. In any case, from what I hear, if there was an airport at Konduz, I'm sure the bombing would have made sure that it's nonfunctional. So it's such a ridiculous report. I'm sure it's planted. It's initiated by people who want to malign Pakistan. There have never been military personnel inside Afghanistan Pakistani military personnel.
[Rattansi:] Never, even under the Taliban? I mean, it was widely believed that the ISI and the Pakistani military were into supplying weapons to the Taliban to help their rule, but also personnel for advice.
[Qureshi:] Again, absolutely false, and people have said in the past that the Taliban have been using or have been given equipment and ammunition by Pakistan. It's absolutely false. If you look at the equipment that the Taliban use, they use Russian equipment. Pakistan does not have Russian equipment. And in any case, from the times of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, such large dumps of ammunition and equipment, some really greased were left over and helicopters that I don't think the Taliban need any equipment or ammunition from any country. They can, perhaps, supply surplus ammunition and equipment to various countries.
[Rattansi:] Ramadan is commencing. The bombing is continuing in the north and the south. There are jitters about the intentions of the Northern Alliance. Might not all of this cause immense instability, not just amongst Islamic countries but amongst the Pashtun communities both in Afghanistan and, indeed, on the border regions of Pakistan?
[Qureshi:] I'm sure it will have some effect and these concerns have been voiced by President Musharraf to various world leaders, to the coalition forces, to the United Nations. However, one does understand and we do understand that the military objectives that the coalition forces have set out to achieve can not be put off, and one needs to achieve those to create the right effects. However, there will be concern. There will be concern not only in Muslim countries. I think there will be concern the longer you spread the military action, the more concern will be voiced by even other world countries and communities.
[Rattansi:] But Pakistan had concerns. Before, General Musharraf said he had ironclad guarantees that the Northern Alliance wouldn't take Kabul. That didn't seem to account for very much, did it?
[Qureshi:] We are quite sure that the coalition forces were conscious of sort of keeping Kabul as a demilitarized zone. And the United Nations, I think, is now taking action on that. Yes, there were some concerns voiced when the Uzbeks and the Tajiks and these people entered Kabul. And there is still apprehension amongst the United Nations that this may result in turmoil and atrocities. So that's why, I think, the United Nations will take action.
[Rattansi:] But the Northern Alliance appear to be consolidating power. They've said that they won't accept a multi-national force, let alone demilitarized Kabul. So then what, a military action against the Northern Alliance from the coalition?
[Qureshi:] I think the ethnic community that formed, what you're referring to as the Northern Alliance, are quite conscious of the fact that what they have achieved could not and would not have been achieved if it hadn't been for coalition forces. And therefore, that much of leverage the coalition forces and the United Nations has on them. And I'm also quite conscious that perhaps the Afghan people, as a whole, all of them including the Northern Alliance, have had enough of fighting and enough of tension and friction. And they would like that, ultimately, a broad-based multi-ethnic government, which is perhaps the only solution to a government that can really govern Afghanistan, is what is the best way forward.
[Rattansi:] But with the Northern Alliance dominance over large swathes of Afghanistan, doesn't frankly Iran, Russia, even India, have more of a say now on the future of Afghanistan than Pakistan does?
[Qureshi:] I don't think so. I think in the south and in the center of Afghanistan, there are a lot of local tribal leaders who have risen up against the Taliban, and that was something that was to be expected. And even areas which border Pakistan, the Pashtuns there, have risen up and the local tribal leaders have taken over their respective areas. I don't think Indian or even Russian influence would be so much that it should cause anyone any worry. In any case, we are quite sure that the Afghans will only accept a government which they want. And that is what everyone should want also. It should be according to the wishes of the Afghan people.
[Rattansi:] General Qureshi, thank you very much for joining us.
[Qureshi:] Thank you very much.
[Rattansi:] Well, we're going to pause here for some breaking news out of Afghanistan. Carol Lin is going to join us from Quetta. Indeed, on that point of whether the Pashtuns are indeed rising up against the Taliban and whether Mullah Mohammad Omar is withdrawing from Kandahar. Carol, do you have any more information?
[Carol Lin, Cnn Correspondent:] Shihab, we've been following a series of meetings of Afghan tribal leaders who've been negotiating with the Taliban for them to put down their weapons and allow a Pashtun agreement to take place so that tribal law can take effect in Kandahar. What we have just learned after a series of telephone calls and meetings is that Mullah Omar, apparently, has agreed according to these sources with these tribal leaders. He has agreed to withdraw, but he is handing over power inside of Kandahar to a Taliban military commander by the name of Haji Basher, who took control, military control, of Kandahar very early this morning. What does this mean? Well, Haji Basher is a member of the Noorzai Pashtun tribe. And it was the Noorzai Pashtun tribe representative that went in, earlier this evening, to negotiate a peaceful solution inside of Kandahar. What these Pashtun tribal leaders are hoping for is that this Taliban commander will set aside his loyalties to the Taliban and allow his tribal affiliation to take over. The argument over whether Haji Basher should have authority in Kandahar as Mullah Omar had wanted to withdraw: Haji Basher said that if Mullah Omar withdraws, there would be no security force in place to keep civil unrest from rising in the city. So he felt that his role should be to stay in the city until the Pashtun tribal leaders figure out a way to fill the power vacuum. Here is the problem. There is disagreement within these various Pashtun tribes as to who should fill that vacuum. What they want to have happen is for King Zahir Shah to come out of Rome, become the figurehead of a coalition government. But time is not on their side because events are moving so quickly. So you have a situation here where Mullah Omar has apparently, according to sources with these tribal elders he has agreed to withdraw. But in his place is his top military commander. So in effect, the city of Kandahar may still be in Taliban control, although heavily influenced by these Pashtun tribal leaders who say they are taking their orders from King Zahir Shah up in Rome Shihab.
[Rattansi:] But, Carol, is Mullah Mohammad Omar withdrawing with his troops in order to carry on the fight against the Northern Alliance?
[Lin:] Well, there is discussion now. I just got of the phone with a source who said that there is Taliban moving north through the Oruzgan province, which is north of Kandahar. But what he is saying that eyewitnesses are telling him so admittedly I am giving you second hand information he is telling me that civilians are actually approaching these Taliban fighters who are trying to move north and disarming them, so that these witnesses are telling this source that the Taliban is losing control inside of Afghanistan and they're losing public support. It is hard for me to believe that average citizens would go up to a Taliban fighter and grab their automatic weapon. But that's what they're saying is happening just north of the city.
[Rattansi:] Carol Lin there reporting to us at Quetta with some very interesting stories. Trying to make sense of the many stories we're hearing across the border in Afghanistan in and around Kandahar. We'll, of course, keep you updated on any more information as we get it. But, we'll continue with Q&A; after this break. Stay with us.
[Rifaat Hussein, Military Analyst:] Well, the concerns, basically, relate to internal security. The pressure on the Pakistan border from these Taliban soldiers. Some of them, they have thrown their guns away, and they are trying to stream across. So to deal with those concerns, Pakistan has stepped up security along the entire Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
[Rattansi:] Welcome back. The Pakistani government says its not concerned by the Northern Alliance's march through Afghanistan. Someone with a different perspective is the former director general of Pakistan's intelligence service. We talked to Hamid Gul in Islamabad. And I asked him if he thought that the coalition had lost control of the Northern Alliance.
[Hamid Gul, Fmr. Pakistan Intelligence Service:] Yes, I think that's correct. I think this perception is right. Right from the beginning, you had to see what is the composition of the Northern Alliance. It has been heavily invested by the ex-Communists who are very deeply aligned with Moscow in the past, and they haven't forgotten the kind of defeat they suffered at the hands of Mujahadeen backed by America. So, I think, they are coming back. And now that they're in control of Kabul, Begram, and some of the important airports, I think, they're going to create lots of difficulties.
[Rattansi:] The Taliban, of course the backbone of support, in many ways, was the ISI, the security services of Pakistan. Is there a sense then that if things on the ground continue to favor Mr. Rabbani and other elements of Northern Alliance whom the ISI don't feel are particularly favorable to Pakistan? Is there a sense that then the ISI might resume support for those elements?
[Gul:] No, I don't think so because it depends here as far as ISI support for Taliban is concerned, I can assure you that no such movement can be created in Afghanistan. This will be spontaneous response of the situation which prevailed in the mid-90s in Afghanistan. And Taliban emerged as a force which was received with both arms by the Afghan people. They enjoyed a considerable degree of support. I'm not saying absolute support, because in some of the urban centers of Afghanistan, their harsh manner of governance was not liked. But they did establish their rule over 95 percent of Afghanistan, not because they were being supported by ISI or Pakistan, but because people of Afghanistan accepted them. Whoever now has to rule Afghanistan, the whole of it, has to be acceptable to Afghanistan.
[Rattansi:] Then to what do we owe the complete collapse, basically, of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the apparent welcoming across Afghanistan of either Northern Alliance forces or Pashtun leaders who have decided to turn against the Taliban?
[Gul:] Well, I disagree with that point of you. I don't subscribe to that at all. I think it's a change of posture on part of Taliban. I think from purely professional military point of view, this should be understood that they have changed posture. They have not been defeated. They have been unseated. And that too, because they decided to get themselves unseated, they were offering too many exposed targets while they were in control of cities. Now, they have taken to the hills, and they are they will have the targets.
[Rattansi:] But the consensus amongst many military analysts is simply that the Taliban this isn't the same situation as the Soviet invasion. This is a time when the Taliban no longer have the support of much of Afghanistan. And crucially, they no longer have the supplies from Pakistan. That's why it's very different and, in fact, their guerrilla war may not work this time around.
[Gul:] Well, I think, somebody is closing eyes shut on this situation. And I think the American poor taxpayers are being taken for a ride. This is absolutely wrong assessment. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the entire country was in the control of government, which was friendly to Soviet Union. And they had 300,000 troops under their command. The Soviets brought in 120,000 additional troops. They were well equipped, well trained, well armed and they were in total control of the country. And yet, when Mujahideen started off, there was no support to them for a year and a half. The American support started flowing in, and that too in shape of small arms, only handheld, shoulder fired if you attribute this victory to Stinger, then Stinger, let me tell you, was introduced in the seventh year of war.
[Rattansi:] But, General Gul, that may be, but the point was there was a common foreign enemy, and that, of course, was the Soviet Union. This time around, it's Afghans who are the enemy of the Taliban. That there is it's simply a completely different equation.
[Gul:] No, you will soon find that it will start turning around, because Afghanistan will exercise a suction effect. And already, the Russians are trying to assert themselves, because now that they are in control of Kabul, their forces allied to them, and I think they are going to now have a different mood and different style of dealing in the coalition. And at some point in time, maybe Iran gets sucked in and China gets sucked in. So it should not be taken it's an evolving picture. I think the American analysts are looking at a still picture, but it is like a movie camera. The picture is moving, and it is going to evolve into the future.
[Rattansi:] Hamid Gul there, I'm just breaking into that interview. Hamid Gul there speaking to me earlier. Well, let's get some analysis of what we have been hearing. Dilip Hiro joins us from London, the noted author and commentator on Central and South Asian affairs. Mr. Hiro, thank you very much for joining us. The Pakistani government is used to be saying, everything is happening exactly as planned. Hamid Gul there saying, the communists have taken over. Well, where is the Pakistan government line right now?
[Dilip Hiro, Author:] I think that we must of course, everybody has to have that background, so, in fact you know, some of the ex-communist commanders joined up with Taliban. The key point that comes through is the ethnic loyalties of the Afghan people. And even the story that came from your correspondent Lin, when she talks about Pashtun leaders now being talking to Omar in Kandahar, et cetera, et cetera, it seems to me that Pashtuns are trying to have a United Front as an ethnic group. Whether they belong to Taliban or not is becoming incidental, and so we go back to even the word Northern Alliance itself is very misleading. When you say alliance, alliance means more than one party. But the party which is really upfront there, and the one which is occupying sorry, not occupying which is now in Kabul is a purely Tajik organization called Jamiat-i-Islami, belonging to Professor Rabbani. I don't think there are any Uzbek forces there. So, ultimately, Afghans are falling back to a position which has been very historical for them ethnic identity.
[Rattansi:] And indeed are we now basically seeing an effect of partition of northern and southern Afghanistan between the once members of the Northern Alliance, as you say, they are mainly particularly centered around Mr. Rabbani. And in the south, the Pashtuns now are trying to counter that enormous influence that they have in the north. I mean, are we going to see both sides now just entrench themselves and start confronting each other?
[Hiro:] Absolutely. I think they're again you know, of course, you have talked with two Pakistani spokesmen Pakistani who are involved in the situation. And from Pakistan's point of view, their strength is the Pashtun ethnic group. And we have to remember that the Pashtuns are the largest group. They are not more than 50 percent, they are about 45 percent, but they're the largest. Also, they live in a contiguous area. They live in the east, and they live in the south, and they are next to Pakistan. Also, everything that's being talked about, you know, Pakistan has been helping Taliban, et cetera, et cetera please remember, there is a no-man's land between Pakistan and Afghanistan. And there are seven Pashtun tribes, which are governed by their own law. And that is were precisely Taliban is going to use that particular area as their rear base from which they may be able to launch guerrilla warfare coming spring. But, I mean, that is we're going forward. But in terms of specifics, what is the strength of Pakistan? In Pakistan, there are Pashtuns. They're in the northwest frontier. So Pashtun ethnic identity is the one which is the strength of Pakistan, and that is why Pakistan is very important. And if any arrangement which excludes the Pashtuns, which excludes Pakistan will not last very long, you know. And trying to run Afghanistan without the Pashtuns is like trying to run Britain without the English.
[Rattansi:] But of course, I mean, things have been obviously changed quite a bit in the last few days. Only a few days ago, it looked like Pakistan had basically lost their complete strategic importance in this battle as the Northern Alliance were moving through large portions of Afghanistan. Now, with the Pashtuns organizing themselves, possibly as a result of the Northern Alliance advance, Pakistan's back again in the picture again, isn't it?
[Hiro:] Absolutely. I think ultimately, as you know, geography is very important, you know. And if you are Pakistan, this very long, 1,500 mile broad with Afghanistan, therefore that's
[Rattansi:] Dilip Hiro, we're going to have to stop there. We are out of time. But I think we have got what the analysis is. Thank you, Dilip Hiro, and all our guests. The news is next on CNN. TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com