[Anderson Cooper, Cnn:] Erin, thanks very much. Good evening. We begin tonight with breaking news. Potentially the spark that ignites a powder keg. At a very least, a very tense moment in a very tense part of the world tonight. A Turkish warplane is down. Syria says it shot it down. Turkey lost track of the warplane reportedly an American-made F-4 phantom over the Mediterranean not far from the Syrian border. The Syrians state television claiming that the fighter was shot down after crossing into Syria at high speed and low altitude. Warships from both countries now searching for the crew, which would be a two-man crew, if indeed the missing plane is an F-4. Turkey also flies Americans F-16s, most of which carry a single pilot. The Turkish government now on emergency footing. The prime minister tonight meeting with cabinet members and his top military commanders. The prime minister's office say that Turkey would respond decisively once all the facts are established. This is, as you'd imagine, a very fast-moving story. Ivan Watson is following it tonight for us from Istanbul. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. Also with us, Fouad Ajami, senior fellow at Stanford University Hoover Institution, national security analyst, Fran Townsend as well who presided over plenty of tense moments as homeland security adviser to president George W. Bush. A lot to cover. Fouad Ajami, you say there's little doubt Syrians knew this was a Turkish plane?
[Fouad Ajami, Senior Fellow, Stanford University's Hoover Institution:] Absolutely. And I think this is a message being sent by the Bashar regime to Turkey. Turkey's four times larger. Turkey's a NATO member. But Turkey has stepped into the Syria entanglement if you will. And weapons are being shipped given to the army T3 in army now through the mediation of the Turks. And I think Bashar knows what he's doing. And I think this would be done deliberately. It would be done to show that Syria's not afraid. And Bashar knows that no cover has come to the rescue of the Syrian opposition. And I think it shows you a sense of invulnerability on the part of the Syrian regime.
[Cooper:] Fran, do you agree with this, this was a calculated act on the part of Bashar Al-Assad?
[Fran Townsend, Cnn International Security Contributor:] And I think not only do they have the sort of air be sent capability to be able to identify this, of course what we don't know, once you identify an incursion in your airspace, just assuming for the moment it's accurate there has such an incursion. What are the Syrians to do, given their capability to identify the threat, understand the intention, as opposed to just hitting the button and launching the missile and taking down this aircraft? And their statement, Anderson, is also very calculated. When the Syrians say this was a low flying and very fast aircraft that were incurred, what they're telling you is that they're trying to defend themselves against what if this had been a civilian aircraft? Of course, a civilian aircraft wouldn't have been that low, wouldn't have been traveling that fast. And so even their words and their statement are very calculated. Their defense is they want to be clear, but I think it is true to say, we have to assume they were sending a message not only to Turkey but to the alliance. Because we know of course Turkey has, earlier this spring, threatened to go to NATO and invoke article five. That is the defense of is the, you know, incursion against one required the action of all. And so I think this was, in fact, a very calculated move on the fact of Bashar Al-Assad of Syria.
[Cooper:] Ivan, the Turks have not confirmed the plane was shot down till after midnight. They didn't confirm it till after midnight. Are they trying to bury the story? I mean clearly, it puts them in an awkward situation.
[Ivan Watson, Cnn Correspondent:] Well, that's the impression I'm getting because the plane had already been missing for more than 12 hours by the time the Turkish government finally announced it had, in fact, been shot down. Another interesting point is the Turks have also said they're working together with the Syrians on the rescue operation. So despite the fact that it has been weeks, if not months, since the Turks pulled their diplomats out of Damascus, there does seem to be high-level coordination going on between the two militaries in this case. I would interpret this as the Turks and Syrians not wanting this incident to escalate further. And there has been a pattern, a very provocative moves by the Syrians in the past. It's not too long before the last time you were here, Anderson, the Syrian troops in one border area fired across into Turkish territory, into a refugee camp, and wounded at least one Turkish police officer. The Turkish prime minister, who is well known for his fiery temper, especially against Israel, did not explode in this case. And in this case of a Turkish warplane shot down and possibly two dead crewmen, he has deliberately calmed the situation down, buried the story after midnight on Friday, on the Turkish weekend, and seems not to want to let this to escalate out of control, Anderson.
[Cooper:] So Barbara, what response has the Pentagon had so far about this?
[Barbara Starr, Cnn Pentagon Correspondent:] Well look, you know, Friday night here at the Pentagon, no official response. But behind the scenes, make no mistake. Growing concern, Anderson. We've now seen two days of what you can think of as instability in Middle East airspace. Yesterday, the Syrian pilot defecting to Jordan across the boundaries of another country. Tonight, this situation with the Turkish warplane. Middle east airspace is very tight. Dangerous at the best of times. And now you have two incidents in two days. You can bet behind the scenes Turkey, Israel, Jordan and the U.S. Navy in the eastern Mediterranean literally have their radars up tonight watching all of this. The next question I think will be, what does the Turkish government ask the White House for. Will they ask for more radars, more surveillance, more help in monitoring that very tight airspace in the Mediterranean? And if the Turks ask for it, what about Jordan, what about Israel?
[Cooper:] Fouad, if Ivan is correct, and Turkey is trying to kind of ratchet this down and not escalate it, is that a positive message for Bashar Al-Assad? Did he, then, make the correct gamble on this? In fact, if he is the one behind shooting down of this plane, then basically it allows him to look tough without having repercussions from Turkey?
[Ajami:] Well, I think that's absolutely right. But what's interesting about this, when you think you have to think about the position of Prime Minister Erdogan. Prime Minister Erdogan has blown hot and cold over Syria. Prime Minister Erdogan has threatened intervention in Syria and then pulled back. And I think this is almost reckoning time for him because of the time we went to Turkey, when I went with you, and we were in Turkey, and I stayed behind, and you hear discussions within Turkey, intellectual and political circles. They're very, very upset with Prime Minister Erdogan because he thinks he hasn't really clarified Turkey's position. But willy-nilly now I think this is a larger crisis than ever before. And I think the Obama policy in itself in many ways involved here. Because there's always been assumption in Washington that this could burn out without any intervention by the United States, and I think once Turkey is involved, there is a wider involvement.
[Cooper:] Yes. Fouad, appreciate you being on. I should also point out, Fouad has written a remarkable new book, "the Syrian Rebellion," which I highly recommend. It's a great account of what has been going on, what we have been witnessing and broadcasting about for the last 16 or so months and also the history of Syria. It's again, "the Syrian Rebellion" just out now. Ivan Watson, thank you. Barbara Starr, Fran Townsend as well. We are going to continue to follow the story throughout the hour and throughout the night. Let us know what you think. We're on facebook. Follow me on twitter @Andersoncooper. I will be tweeting tonight as well. Up next, why doesn't this powerful congressman want to answer our questions? Could it be the four congressional and federal investigators examining his business practices? We will tell you who he is and what he's being investigated about. We are "Keeping Them Honest."