[Church:] Welcome back to CNN NEWSROOM, I'm Rosemary Church. I want to update you now on the main stories we've been following this hour. The British Conservative Party is set to announce its new leader, in the coming hours. The winner of the contest will replace Theresa May as prime minister. Former London mayor, Boris Johnson, is heavily favored. His chief rival is the man who replaced him as Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt. Police in Puerto Rico deployed tear gas to disperse a huge crowd of protesters a short time ago. The demonstrators are demanding that Governor Ricardo Rossello resign immediately. The protest was sparked by leaked offensive chat messages and anger over corruption. Rossello has apologized, but is refusing to step down. South Korean fighter jets have fired warning shots at Russian military planes that entered the country's airspace. According to South Korea's military, it happened twice within a half hour. Seoul says the Russian planes flew over an island chain claimed by both South Korea and Japan. Well, the U.S. and the U.K. are considering military options to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf from Iran. Tehran refuses to release a British oil tanker it seized in the Strait of Hormuz last week, but to really understand what's happening right now, it helps to look back through Iran's relations with the west. Seizing that tanker was only the latest move in a game that's been going on for more than 50 years. Our Becky Anderson reports.
[Becky Anderson, Cnn Abu Dhabi Managing Editor:] The operation was meant to be televised. Iranian Special Forces boarding the British flagged Stena Impero and commandeering it as gunboats buzz nearby. The scenes last Friday designed to replicate the U.K.'s own, after it impounded an Iranian oil tanker, the Grace 1, earlier this month. But the tanker tit-for-tat isn't happening in isolation. It's the latest episode in an ongoing standoff between Iran and the U.S., with a host of regional and western countries caught in the middle. The most recent starting point, May 2018, when Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal and re-imposed stringent sanctions, setting the two sides on the track to confrontation, that came as no surprise to Iranian leaders like Ayatollah Khamenei.
[Ayatollah Khamenei, Spiritual Leader, Iran:] How many times did I say during the negotiations, that they act in bad faith, that they lie, and that they won't stand by their words? Now, you can see.
[Anderson:] But for Iran's leaders, the grievances are also historic. Back to 1953, when the CIA and British Intelligent overthrew the Democratically-elected Iranian prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, who wanted to nationalize the country's oil industry, which at the time, was controlled by the British, or to 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini led a revolution against the American backed-Mohammad Reza Shah, who they consider to be too close to the west. And above all, to the 1980s, when the mostly isolated Iran, fought Saddam Hussein's western and Arab Gulf-backed army, in a bloody eight- year war. Haunted by the past, Iran's relations with the west have, once again, entered choppy waters. And it will take steady diplomatic hands to ensure this latest incident doesn't become the starting point of even more confrontation. Becky Anderson, CNN, Khor Fakkan, in the UAE.
[Church:] Adnan Tabatabai joins us now from Dusseldorf in Germany. He is an independent analyst on Iran affairs and holds a lectureship at the Heinrich-Heine University of Dusseldorf. Thank you so much for being with us.
[Adnan Tabatabai, Political Analyst On Iran Affairs:] Sure thing.
[Church:] We're now seeing the United States and the United Kingdom, issuing these new warnings to Iran, as the U.K. ramps up its military presence in the Gulf, in response to Tehran refusing to release a British oil tanker that it seized last week. Where's this all going and how far would you expect the U.K. to go with this?
[Tabatabai:] I guess, this very much looks like a what some refer to, as a war of attrition. We are seeing both the U.S. and Iran, trying to up the pressure on the respective other. The U.S., through their maximum pressure campaign, sanctions, economic isolation, the Iranians are trying to respond to that through different means, be it in the nuclear agreement, be it at the sea. And well, the U.K. is dragged in and it's interesting that now, Foreign Secretary Mike Pompeo, the U.S. is saying the U.K. has to take care of its ownership. So, yes, we have to see what the U.K. comes up with. We are hearing about this joint naval operation with France and Germany, but that remains to be seen what it actually means.
[Church:] Indeed. And, of course, Iran says it does not seek confrontation. If that's the case, though, why did it seize the U.K. tanker and what's its strategy here?
[Tabatabai:] I guess the strategy really is and you see the pattern again on the U.S. side and the Iranian side, the strategy is on the one hand, increase the pressure to escalate and show what actually what the stakes, while at the same time, leaving some doors open for dialog or for some form of talks and negotiations. We've heard Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif making these suggestions to some of the interviews in recent interviews in recent days. And the same holds true for the U.S., we hear a lot of harsh rhetoric, but also calls for Iran to call President Trump. So, yes, I think this is the pattern we see on both sides.
[Church:] The concern in the midst of all this, always, is the chance of miscalculation. How likely is that, do you think?
[Tabatabai:] Well, that is indeed very dangerous, because we're not just dealing with the with the military of the U.S. and the military of Iran, but a whole range of other actors that are, in fact, influential in the region, be it states, in the neighborhood of Iran, but also non-state actors that, frankly, all sides have unleashed into the region in the recent years. And that is the big danger, I guess, that while both capitals, Tehran and Washington, may not seek a war, other actors who might benefit from the war may jump in and, in fact, create a very dangerous environment.
[Church:] Indeed. And, of course, President Trump says it's getting harder now for him to want to deal with Iran, so who has the leverage here for any such deal and do you think that that's possible?
[Tabatabai:] Again, this goes back to the point of the war of attrition. I think, and I would really like to apply this to both sides, both sides are trying to see at what point does the respective other feel the need to seek a face-saving exit. And they're trying to push each other to that very point. And I think that is the dangerous path we are seeing here, and I'm afraid it will continue for some time. The Iranians seem to be sure that Donald Trump does not want a war. Donald Trump seems to be sure that the Iranians will not dare to enter a war. So, in times of both sides not seeking a war, it's going to stay dangerous for some time, but I actually do not foresee the big escalation, but we may continue to see some incidents as the recent ones.
[Church:] Right. And, of course, says we were discussing, Iran says, it doesn't seek confrontation, but it seizes the tanker, it says that it wants to have a respectful relationship with the United Kingdom, but the optics don't look good for Iran, when, you know, it's seizing, and it's been accused of piracy on the seas, and taking a U.K. tanker.
[Tabatabai:] What really matters most for the Iranians or for the Iranian leadership that's, at least, my cents, is to show that it is able and has the will and means to respond to being under pressure. So, this the seizure of the U.K. tanker was a response to the Gibraltar seizure of an Iranian oil tanker, and the same holds true for the situation with regards to the nuclear agreement. Iran has the feels the necessity to show that it can respond, that it is not in fact, it has an alternative to just sticking to the deal, and the leadership in Tehran, and that is my cents, has, for one year, continued to apply by the obligations of the nuclear agreement, and feels that this one year has not paid off. And therefore, they are now seeking now, basically exploring the options of escalation, and to see whether they get more results out of that.
[Church:] Yes, this escalation, of course, has caused a lot of concern in the region and beyond. Adnan Tabatabai, thank you so much for joining us and sharing your analysis on this issue, appreciate it.
[Tabatabai:] My pleasure.
[Church:] Well, Iran's seizure of the British flagged tanker comes as the U.K. is about to get a new prime minister. Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is heavily favored to be picked as the new Conservative leader, a past Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently spoke to CNN's Christiane Amanpour, about the standoff with Iran, and here's his advice for Johnson, in this CNN exclusive.
[Gordon Brown, Former Prime Minister, United Kingdom:] I think, Boris Johnson should be very much aware that the background to this, is the failure of the American administration to stay with the Iranian deal. And I think the background to this is, also, that Britain must remain solid with our European partners. But what he can do to persuade President Trump to look again at the conditions in which he might sign a deal with Iran is, in my view, very important. I am told, whether it's right or wrong, that Iran would accept tougher conditions, that they would move to a higher level of inspection earlier if that were something that America would press for. And this may be the basis that this deal can be sold.
[Church:] And for more about the contest to pick the next British prime minister, I am joined from Los Angeles, by journalist, Josh Boswell, good to have you with us.
[Josh Boswell, Journalist:] Hi, Rosemary.
[Church:] So, it looks like Boris Johnson will be the next U.K. prime minister, and he is already facing a Brexit revolt. Will cabinet ministers threatening to leave over no-deal Brexit result will that cost him a lot of grief? How's all this going to play out, do you think?
[Boswell:] Yes, it's looking to be a very tough entrance for Boris Johnson here, because you have several ministers, either having resigned already, or saying that they will resign, and that's not a great look for him. He also suffered his first defeat, I think, before he even walked through the doors of number 10 Downing Street, because parliament voted to try and block him from suspending them, which is something that he said he might do, if they try to stop him from taking the U.K. out of the European Union. It's going to be much harder for him to do that now because of a recent vote by parliament, and so, he is facing a lot of problems there. But, you know, it's not only Brexit, as you've been saying just now, you know, it's Iran too. He's got this entire
[Church:] Yes, well, that is the exactly. That's the other big issue, isn't it? The new prime minister, whoever it will be, and it looks more and more likely to be Boris Johnson, will face this growing crisis with Iran in the midst of the seizure of this U.K. tanker. So, with that in mind, how far might the U.K. go and particularly, if Boris Johnson is at the helm?
[Boswell:] Well, the real problem here is that Boris has tried previously, himself, as foreign secretary, which is, you know, previous role that he had to get Donald Trump to agree to renewing that nuclear deal with Iran, and he failed. Now, maybe he's built up more of a rapport with Trump, since then, maybe, you know, Trump has changed his position slightly, but it doesn't look that way. In fact, it looks like the U.S. has hardened on their position. We've also lost our ambassador, Sir Kim Derrick, who had great contacts and, you know, was very well-respected in the U.S., and he has gone now, because of a leak of his e-mails that, you know, caused Trump to say he wouldn't deal with him. So, it's looking very difficult for Boris to do what former Prime Minister Gordon Brown was recommending, which is to try and get the U.S. to sign up to push for a renewal of that deal with Iran. It's also going to be quite difficult now, amid Brexit negotiations to get some kind of cooperation with the European Union. I think it will be very easy, perhaps, irresponsible, but very easy for the European Union to use that as leverage over the U.K. and say, oh well, yes, we'd like to help you in this situation with Iran, but maybe you need to capitulate here on you demands for Brexit first, and so that's going to be a very difficult balance for him to make as prime minister.
[Church:] Right. And, of course, it has to be said, Boris Johnson is a divisive figure. How did he end up as the man poised to take over from Theresa May, given his history?
[Boswell:] Yes, it's a very interesting one, and I think it boils down to him, being able to say to the Conservative Party membership, remember, this election that he is likely to win, is not the whole country, it's 160,000 Conservative Party members. He is the one who's been able to say, I'm the toughest on Brexit, and I always have been. He's also the most charismatic out of all of the potential leadership candidates that there have been. He is, you know, bombastic and, you know, he can be inaccurate at times. He's been accused of lying or you know and propagating on truths. But, people think, people in the Conservative Party think that he can win elections because of the charisma, and that's one of their main points that they are voting for. I think it's two things, it's can he deliver Brexit, and does he want to, which the answer seems to be yes. And to you know, whether that's a deal or no deal, he says he's going to deliver. And then, two is, can he win an election when it comes to it? You know, against labor, the opposition, can he defeat them? And I think the Conservative Party members think, yes he can. That's why he's where he is now today.
[Church:] You're right, and at this point, Jeremy Hunt, Johnson's chief rival has said he will and can work with Johnson. Essentially signaling he surrender to Boris. Is that is that what we're seeing here?
[Boswell:] Yes, and I think this is a it seems like a bit of a surrender. It's similar to remarks that he made last week as well. I think he realizes that you know, he's in the jaws of defeat, and he can snatch the small victory perhaps. He I think he's hoping that Boris Johnson will be gracious in his victory, something that one of the people he really respect figure in history, Winston Churchill, you know, always said one should do. So, Jeremy Hunt is perhaps hoping that he'll get a good position in Cabinet, because Boris Johnson will say, "OK, Jeremy Hunt represents the other side of the party, the more pro, pro-remain, or at least, less hardline Brexit side of the party. Let's bring him under our wing, so when we don't have this fringe that we're ousting, or and you know, we're not further and expanding these splits in the Tory Party. Something he may do. On the other hand, it may be all futile, and Jeremy Hunt will be cast- off to the backbench, as we'll have to see in the next few days.
[Church:] Most definitely we'll be watching very closely. Of course, Josh Boswell, thank you as always. Appreciated.
[Boswell:] Thanks, Rosemary.
[Church:] Well, Robert Mueller gets instructions about what he can and can't say during his testimony before two congressional committees. We'll have the details for you coming up, stay with us.