[Brooke Baldwin, Cnn Anchor:] He is the former Colorado governor. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you so much for being with me here on this Tuesday. Let's go to D.C. "THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER" starts now.
[Jake Tapper, Cnn Anchor:] We're about to bring you maybe the first big surprise in the 2020 race. THE LEAD starts right now. Breaking news: one Democratic presidential candidate leaping higher in new CNN polls out this second, up 200 percent from December, and now in the top three. Should the familiar favorites start to worry? He just can't let it go. President Trump stomping on Senator John McCain's grave again, still simmering and ranting, as more signs indicate that possibly it will soon be Mueller time. Plus, Michael Cohen's call records, details on hush money and a half- mil in Russian money, just released documents laying out more of what the feds had on the president's former fixer.
[Announcer:] This is CNN breaking news.
[Tapper:] Welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. We begin with breaking news in our 2020 lead. A brand-new CNN poll out right now painting a clear picture of where the 2020 race stands as winter becomes spring for Democrats who are just getting started and for President Trump. Nationally, among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, former Vice President Joe Biden is way out in front. And he's not even officially in the race yet. Senator Bernie Sanders, who ran in 2016, the closest behind him, but it's Senator Kamala Harris of California who has made the biggest gains with voters over the last few months, and climbing to double-digit support. The poll also shows almost unprecedented enthusiasm. Voters are more enthusiastic about voting for president than any other presidential race since the turn of the century. But in those enthusiasm numbers is a warning for Democrats and a good sign for President Trump. CNN's Phil Mattingly joins me now from the Magic Wall. Phil, let's start with the Democratic field and who voters want to see as their nominee.
[Phil Mattingly, Cnn Correspondent:] Yes, Jake, let's start digging in on the top-line numbers right now. And you noted the top two, well, they're pretty recognizable, Joe Biden not in the race yet, but still pulling up top at 28 percent, Bernie Sanders seeing a little jump from his numbers in December up to 20 percent. But it's the next to now in double digits they weren't there in December that are perhaps most noteworthy, Senator Kamala Harris and also Beto O'Rourke, up two points from he where was in December. And this poll was in the field the same day that Beto O'Rourke announced his campaign, perhaps the first seeds of a jump there. Then you have Elizabeth Warren, John Kerry, who hasn't declared his intentions yet, but still pulling up to this point. And then you can move down the field, Cory Booker, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, all kind of within the 1 to 3 percent. But who you want to dig into most interesting is who you already noted, Jake, and that's Kamala Harris. When you look at her numbers, up eight points overall since December, and perhaps what's more impressive, or at least more noteworthy at this point, she is up in every single demographic category that was polled in this poll that was over the course of March 14 through March 17. In particular, she showed the most strength among women voters, among minority voters and among self-identified liberal voters. There's no question about it. Obviously, the top tier, at least in the top two, Jake, is what we have seen over the course of the last several months, but Kamala Harris seeing major jumps, something we have seen in some other polls leading up to this point, but certainly eight points at this point in time, Jake, that's significant.
[Tapper:] Also, there's been a surge in voter enthusiasm. But in contrast with the 2018 midterms, it looks as though Republicans have the edge right now on enthusiasm.
[Mattingly:] Yes, Jake, a little twist when you get down to the details, but let's look at the top-line number first 40 percent of those polled were extremely enthusiastic. Now, to put that into context, CNN has been asking this question since 2004. Never has it been this high at any point, let alone March the year before of an election. The closest to this was 37 percent just shortly before the historic 2008 election. So people are very excited, just short shy of 600 days out, to actually vote. But when you dig into those numbers, it gets a little bit more interesting. Take a look at this. Republicans now, 57 percent say they are enthusiastic about the presidential vote. Pair that with Democrats, 46 percent. Now, it's the Democratic enthusiasm that really propelled Democrats to take control of the House back in 2018. You're going to see some seeds, perhaps a leading indicator of sorts. Back in the 2018 cycle, Democrats flipped 42 state legislative seats. Already this cycle, Republicans have flipped five, Democrats none. Perhaps that's why you see this Jake.
[Tapper:] All right, Phil Mattingly, thanks so much. Let's dive into this with my experts that. You just heard Phil break down the increase in support for Senator Kamala Harris among virtually every demographic. Why do you think?
[Karen Finney, Cnn Political Commentator:] That's time. People have had more time to get to know her. And clearly she's been using her time well on the ground talking to voters and talking about getting letting people get to know her and get to know what she stands for.
[Tapper:] And we should always do this, the caveat, at this point in past presidential contests, Jeb Bush was ahead. Hillary Clinton was ahead in 2007. I mean, it's not necessarily indicative. Still, if I'm in Senator Kamala Harris' camp, I got to feel good that she's at least gaining on Biden and Sanders.
[Mike Rogers, Cnn Contributor:] Going the right direction. The one thing that I found interesting about the poll is 56 percent of Democrats said, we really don't care what policy they have. We care if they can be Donald Trump.
[Tapper:] Yes.
[Rogers:] And so this is an audition. This is this is what you're saying. So she's out on the road, she's auditioning, saying, I'm the one that can be Donald Trump. And clearly that's where she's pulling her numbers on that rise. There's a lot of time, as a former candidate, a lot of time.
[Tapper:] Many, many lifetimes. Kirsten, take a look at how support is changed just over the last few months for the top finishers in the poll. Biden is slightly down, 2 percent. Not really a big deal. Sanders, Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, they have all gone up. They have all increased their support among Democratic voters. Do you think there's a message here or a signal here as to what that means?
[Kirsten Powers, Cnn Commentator:] Well, I mean, people are getting more engaged and learning more about the people that are running. So, of course, the top two people are the people that are most well-known, a former vice president in Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders, who ran for president last time, so that makes sense. I think the happiest person has to be Kamala Harris, because her trajectory is clearly in the right trajectory. And I think that the most concerning thing is the 57 percent of Republicans being extremely excited, not just excited, extremely excited, and only 46 percent of Democrats. And it sort of jibes with what I hear anecdotally. I think Democrats aren't as excited because they don't really know who it's going to be and who should we support, and should we go with somebody who's safe or not safe or not well-known? And so I think they're kind of waiting to see do decide who they're going to get behind.
[Tapper:] I want to go back to the enthusiasm in a second, but before I do, I want to show you. This was really interesting. The poll asked Democratic and Democratic-leaning the voters if they thought the Democrats have a better chance of winning if Bernie Sanders is the party's nominee; 33 percent say that party have a better chance with Sanders; 56 percent said the party had a better chance with someone else. Same question about Joe Biden 51 percent say the party has a better chance of winning with Biden, 36 percent say someone else. So Bernie Sanders, number two, very strong, but a lot of skeptics among his voters that he can deliver them the White House.
[Amanda Carpenter, Cnn Political Commentator:] Yes, two things. Voters always want what they can't have. And Biden is not a candidate yet, but I would say Bernie Sanders' endorsement will be very coveted. So I wouldn't expect many candidates...
[Tapper:] His endorsement? He might get the nomination. We don't know that.
[Carpenter:] I understand. But if we're playing the long game, and people do not believe that he can beat Donald Trump and that is the most important thing to them it is unlikely he will make it. But I do want to say, going back to the enthusiasm question, what is also good for Kamala Harris is the enthusiasm among women. If you look at how that breaks down among women, women are 7 percent more enthusiastic than men, and Donald Trump's favorability rating with those women is in the 60s.
[Finney:] However, getting women to vote for women is like pulling teeth from a walrus with a toothpick, right? It's a very it's hard, right? Women are the hardest on female candidates. And so that's you're right. It's a great number. But two weeks out from Stacey Abrams' election in Georgia, you had that same group of college-educated white women saying, I'm just not sure if she's qualified. So it's tough. And I think Kamala's team knows, is very aware of how tough it's going to be to hold on to that support from women. And I would also say, though, for the other candidates, this isn't bad news necessarily. They still have plenty of room to grow and plenty of room to define themselves.
[Tapper:] Let's talk about the enthusiasm gap, because your party, the Republican Party, really has some good news here in this poll on that subject; 57 percent of Republicans say they're extremely enthusiastic about voting for president. Only 46 percent of Democrats say that. Maybe that's the Democratic angst. They don't know who to get behind; 76 percent of voters who lean Republican say they're proud to have President Trump as their president. That's up 10 percent from September. It does seem like Republicans are really getting ready for 2020.
[Rogers:] And I attribute this to the Democrats and how far left they're going in their campaign. That will take even the most moderate Republican and make them stop for a minute and think, I may not be happy with Donald Trump, but, boy, I sure can't cotton to that. And so I think that they're going to there's a lot that's going to happen in the next few months. And the farther they tack left and, remember, all of these folks are going for that 35 percent of that Democrat base that say, I want somebody that feels the way I do on these issues. And that part of the base tacks more left. So these candidates are running in that direction, and that will invigorate Republicans across the board. It will all change when there's two candidates. That will change.
[Tapper:] You look a little bit skeptical on what he was saying there in terms of the party going to the left too much.
[Powers:] Well, I mean, I don't think substantively, personally, I don't find them too far to the left. But I do think there's something to be said for the fact that it will drive enthusiasm for Republicans, because Republicans really do believe that Democrats are interested in ushering in a socialist government and these kinds of things that are real trigger words for them. And so I think that and I, again, sort of anecdotally have heard that from people who are like very alarmed by Ocasio-Cortez, and from Republicans. And so I could see it being something that definitely generates enthusiasm. And Democrats have to figure that out, because they need to generate with his enthusiasm on their side as well.
[Tapper:] Listen to the enthusiastic response that Senator Elizabeth Warren got at our town hall last night in Jackson, Mississippi, among an audience of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents when she talked about getting rid of the Electoral College.
[Sen. Elizabeth Warren , Presidential Candidate:] Well, my view is that every vote matters. And the way we can make that happen is that we can have national voting. And that means get rid of the Electoral College.
[Tapper:] That's raw meat for Democrats, but I don't know how it's going to play more generally.
[Carpenter:] Yes. I mean, I think it solidifies Republicans to the idea that the Democrats want to be a coastal party, because the only way to eliminate the Electoral College is go through the Constitution and to have an amendment to get rid of it. And, OK, so you do that. That means New York and California decides the nominee, which is what Republicans think the Democrats want to do anyway. And so you know what, Elizabeth Warren? If you want to pay attention to the rural states, go. You don't have to stop going to Mississippi if you get the nomination. That's on you. Don't put it on the Electoral College.
[Tapper:] Do you think that and other issues such as Democrats talking about getting rid of the filibuster, adding more justices to the Supreme Court, do you think that ultimately will help the party?
[Finney:] You know what? I think those are sort of more outlier issues. I think it is far more important to people, like we said before, can you beat Trump? Are you going to lower my taxes? Are you going to make my health care more affordable? And I hope that what Democrats do, I think they also part of this socialism thing, though, this is the GOP snow job, right? We're not socialists. There's one.
[Carpenter:] Bernie Sanders.
[Finney:] There's one. He's one. That's one guy.
[Carpenter:] We didn't make that up.
[Finney:] It's one guy. And, as your poll shows, maybe people don't think that's the guy. That was his argument in 2016, was that he could win as a socialist. OK, well, we will find out, but point being, I think this issue about the fact we have so many candidates, it's when it's more clear who's our nominee, are they able to beat Trump, do they stand for the things that I really care about? And all these other issues, they matter to people, as we saw in the town hall last night, but I don't think it's what people are going to vote on.
[Tapper:] Everyone, stick around. We're going to keep talking about this and other issues. President Trump first claimed his attacks on the late Senator John McCain were about policy, and then within a few seconds he proved it to the world it is in fact personal in many ways. We will show you. Then, it didn't take very long at all. Newly unsealed documents reveal just how quickly special counsel Robert Mueller turned his attention to President Trump's former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen. Stay with us.