[Daryn Kagan, Cnn Anchor:] Time to talk election 2000. Our CNN senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, waking up in Los Angeles this morning. Bill, you had such a good time there at the convention you went back for more.
[William Schneider, Cnn Senior Political Analyst:] That's right. I actually went back to the Nixon Library because yesterday was the 40th anniversary of the first-ever televised campaign debate and they commemorated it at the Nixon Library. It was the Kennedy-Nixon debate of 1960.
[Kagan:] Well, I want to ask you a question about being in Los Angeles. Did you see George W. Bush on "LARRY KING" last night? He came out and said, I'm going to win California.
[Schneider:] Well...
[Kagan:] Good luck?
[Schneider:] ... that's a bold notion and, look, anything can happen, but at the moment he's running behind in California. And a lot of Republicans here in California are worried that he'll write off California, because it's not just the presidential election at stake, but California has over 10 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives and there's a real ground trench warfare to control the House. So if Bush were to write off California, a lot of Republicans would be very, very angry.
[Kagan:] You have a lot of fans out there, Bill, a lot of e-mail sent in for you to answer, so let's get to them right away.
[Schneider:] OK.
[Kagan:] Our first e-mail, the question: "What role will foreign policy have in this election? Which candidate do you believe has the best plan?" It's not necessarily like to offer your opinion, but the foreign policy debate here.
[Schneider:] Well, I'll try to be analytical.
[Kagan:] OK.
[Schneider:] And I'll tell you that international affairs is not a real big issue in this campaign. Americans feels as if the country is secure. Both candidates are talking about a missile defense plan, although Gov. Bush's plan is far more ambitious and comprehensive than the one Vice President Gore is talking about. The voters really aren't too engaged in world affairs at the moment. It's a very odd election. I mentioned I was down at the Nixon Library and they were commemorating the 1960 debates. Those debates, everything was about the Cold War, everything was about the life-and-death struggle with communism. It was unbelievable. They even talked about civil rights in that context, that if we didn't give all our people equal rights, then how could we hold our face up before the world. Other countries would say we're not living up to our ideals. The atmosphere has completely changed. On the question about the, you know, the difference between them, I'd say, basically, the similarities are more striking than the differences. Yes, Bush has a more ambitious missile defense plan, but basically both are free- traders, both talk about America being a world leader. I think hat the Republicans are a little bit more unilateralist, the Democrats are a little bit more multilateralist. Republicans point to the Gulf War as the model of an international policy that they want to follow and the Democrats look at Kosovo as the sort of thing where we did it in concert with other countries. In both cases, we led the way but we didn't take a lot of risks. And, you know, the bottom line is, Slobodan Milosevic is clinging to power and Saddam Hussein is still in power after 10 years.
[Kagan:] Bill, our next e-mail is coming to us from farther up the West Coast in Fossil, Oregon, the question about Independents: "The Bush campaign was on the Sunday talk shows following the primaries, which were won by John McCain, ridiculing the Independents and calling us trouble makers. Now the Bush campaign is courting our votes. Does Bush think we've forgotten that tongue lashing?"
[Schneider:] Well, that's a big problem. Both side are courting the McCain vote because Republicans didn't go for John McCain except in a couple of states like New Hampshire. And they were angry that not just Independents but Democrats were invading their primary. Now, of course, Independents are a crucial swing vote in this campaign. They were swinging to Al Gore, now they seem to be maybe coming back a little bit to George W. Bush. That's the difference between a primary and a general election. They don't want Independents invading their primary space, but in a general election everyone competes for the Independent vote.
[Kagan:] Our next e-mail is from Oakland, California, in the bay area. A good question. We've talked about this: "If George Bush does not win, who is the Republican front-runner for 2004? Is it John McCain? If Gore loses, who would be the Dems' front-runner?"
[Schneider:] Oh, some speculation?
[Kagan:] Yes.
[Schneider:] Well, that's always fun.
[Kagan:] You're in that business.
[Schneider:] Then, you know, if Bush loses, then we enter my favorite stage of the campaign, which is recriminations.
[Kagan:] Ooh.
[Schneider:] Remember, the Democrats lost three times in a row with Carter, then Mondale, then Dukakis, and they basically concluded, you know, people aren't buying what we have to sell, and they had to change what the party was all about. Bill Clinton did that. If the Republicans now lose three times in a row, with the elder Bush, then Bob Dole, then the younger Bush, they're going to face the same kind of crisis. They're going to have to basically take McCain's advice even if they don't take John McCain himself. McCain said in the primaries, the Republicans can't win if all we have to offer is a conservative message because it's not the Ronald Reagan era anymore. We can't just sell that. He said...
[Kagan:] And real quick, if Gore loses?
[Schneider:] And if Gore loses and Hillary wins, who do you think will have the biggest national following? Hillary.
[Kagan:] Really, Hillary Clinton for president in 2004?
[Schneider:] It could happen.
[Kagan:] You heard it here first or maybe not first, but early on.
[Schneider:] OK, thanks.
[Kagan:] Actually, Kyra's too.
[Kyra Phillips, Cnn Anchor:] Yes, that's true.
[Kagan:] Good to see you.