[Lemon:] We got Conor Lamb's performance in Pennsylvania special election, has Republicans worried about a blue wave in the midterm. So, is this a wake-up call for the GOP, here to discuss, Mark McKinnon, executive producer of the Showtime's "The Circus" and a former adviser to George W. Bush and John McCain. Also veteran Republican strategist, Mike Murphy. Veteran. Good evening, gentleman.
[Michael Murphy, Republican Strategist:] Jurassic.
[Lemon:] Never.
[Murphy:] Veterans, means over the hill.
[Lemon:] Young at heart, legendary.
[Murphy:] Right.
[Lemon:] So, Mark, last time you were on, you know, we talked about this. And you said all politics are now national and that old axiom has been turned on its head, anything listen, I wondered if last night changed your mind, because that was I thought that was a local race and he fit, what the local folks wanted and that is why he won. No?
[Mark Mckinnon, Executive Producer, Showtime's "the Circus":] No, I don't think so. You know, I don't think you can't put lipstick on this pig. It needs plastic surgery. It was a it was a Republican seat. Every column in this race should have been is checked for Republicans, 20 point advantage, Trump won by 20 points, long-held Republican seat. So, you know but all practical matters, this should have been a Republican win and it wasn't. So what does that say? It means the Republicans lost a seat they should have won. It wasn't even a marginal seat, it wasn't a swing seat. So, now those swing seats look really like they're in really big trouble. And I think the problem was it was nationalized, because this candidate, remember said, he was Trump before Trump was Trump. And my advice to Republicans running out there is, you have to show a show of measure of independence. You can agree with Trump on some things, but you got to be independent and prove that you are not just completely you don't want to hug him, so you need a restraining order. And the second thing is, Trump embraced a really Democratic idea, which is tariffs. And if you are a Democrat and you believe in tariffs which most Democrats do, why not pick the Democratic choice, instead of Republican one.
[Lemon:] Yes. So Mike, listen, you said Republicans should have been able to I read this on air last night, elect a bag of hammers there. So I want to ask you, let's talk about these spreads, OK? Because here is the spread, Pennsylvania's 18th district is a is listed on R plus 11, right? According to the Cook political reporter...
[Murphy:] Right.
[Lemon:] ...partisan voter index. Meaning that Republicans had an 11 point advantage there, over Democrats. Devin Nunes and Cathy McMorris Rodgers are listed as R plus eight. Paul Ryan and Lee Zeldin are only R plus fives. Are these guys safe?
[Murphy:] Well, no, like many Republicans in swing seats, they're in a real tough environment. I mean, let's look at this Pennsylvania 19 thing and step back. We couldn't carry...
[Lemon:] 18th.
[Murphy:] A Pittsburg district that Romney won by 17 and Trump by 20, a week after we passed steel tariffs for Pittsburgh. And yet still our guy lost. Now the spin going around D.C. is we had a sad sack candidate, but as I said, that district is so good, we ought to be able to elect a box of hammers there. So, I'm with Mark. We have to be honest in the party, what's going on. President Trump who peaked in districts like that, a year and a half ago, is now in real trouble, has been become an anchor on the party and guys like Nunes, are bunch or Republican that are about 30, 40 districts that are in real trouble right now and this has been coming. This isn't a freak thing, like some specials, where out of nowhere, you know, special pops. This was way deep in Republican territory. After we had the trouble, we had in the Virginia governor race and after a lot of other special elections where we way underperformed. So there is definitely a blue wave coming. We got to get ready for it and stop lying to ourselves about all, it was the candidate's bumper sticker that wasn't any good.
[Lemon:] Mark listen, Mike just set me up for my next question about the blue wave coming. Because in front of the cameras, publicly, you hear Republicans, even Paul Ryan saying well, you know, don't read too much into this. He ran basically as a Republican. You are plugged into a lot of Republicans. What are they saying what are they really saying behind the scenes?
[Mckinnon:] They're saying get off the beach. Get out of here. Actually that is happening. I mean, they're getting out of the races altogether, but 41 Republicans have retired and resigned. And I think because of last night, we will see more resignations. There is a lot of Republicans that are on the you know on the bubble. And if you're on the bubble, looking at last night's news, you know, that was the canary in the coalmine getting hit by mustard gas and grenade and there is feathers everywhere.
[Lemon:] Oh my gosh. All right, so then, whose fault is it? is it we have folks on last night saying, Republicans candidates need to wake up or this was a sort of referendum on the Trump presidency. Whose fault is it? Is it a combination?
[Murphy:] I'm sorry, is that for me.
[Lemon:] Either one of you, go ahead, Mike, Mike.
[Murphy:] I'm a trained puppet. I didn't hear that. That was Mike part. Look, I'll say it, yes, it's Trump. This is not rocket science. We had the most unpopular President in the history of polling in the first year of an administration. So, you know, two plus two is four here. Massively unpopular President, who is constantly doing things to undermine the presidency and offend two- thirds of the country. Breaking Republican orthodoxy, dumb policy like steel tariffs and so guess what, we getting clobbered now, at the polls. This is not hard, the problem is fundamentally Trump and the fact the party has become lemmings following him and giving up on a lot of things that old Jurassic Republicans like me signed up for. Like free trade, like standing up to the Russians. And a whole host of other things, including having some respect for the office of the presidency. So, yes, I totally blame Trump.
[Mckinnon:] The other thing, that is problematic about that, Don, is that, you know, I think a lot of Republicans were holding out hope that because of the tax cuts and because of the very strong economy that would help carry through some of the problems that we've been seeing out there. This suggests that, that is not going to be the life boat that everybody thought it was going to be.
[Lemon:] Yes. Let's let's and my open at 10:00 I said I talked about the chaos that is happening at the White House, so many different people leaving. We never know how many different stories that are really important stories that we're going to get on any given day here. He wants to blame everyone else, even taking trying to take credit for Conor Lamb's win last night or CNN hasn't called it yet. He declared himself the winner. He wants to take credit for that. But when it really comes down to it, he is the master of chaos. No one is more responsible for it than the man who is sitting in the White House, Mark McKinnon.
[Mckinnon:] That is right. I mean, first of all, he tried to hedge that before the race by saying there was a weak candidate in case he lost. Second of all, he tried to say that Conor Lamb ran, you know sort of in his direction. Which just isn't true. You know, on issue after issue very strong union now obviously he is a conservative Democrat. You know, that is something I'm familiar with having been one myself in Texas for many years. So he represented the district well. That is what, you know, I think a lot of Democrats are going to get that play book and try to fill the right kind of candidates, in the right districts. And you know, he he certainly wasn't running to Trump, but he was running as somebody representing a district in the middle of Pennsylvania.
[Lemon:] Mike, I know you
[Murphy:] That is true that he he sent the right cultural signals, Lamb did. Half the time, he was campaigning by carrying a rifle and complaining about Nancy Pelosi. You know, that gave him a little traction there. What Republicans should do is learn from that. We need to give the same kind of long leash to some of our candidates, who want to walk away from the President a little bit and walk away from some of the litmus test primary issues, like guns and the suburban districts where Republicans support is collapsing. So, I would say my advice to the Republicans would be, copy that. Because we are heading for real head winds and it's an effective tactic as we just learned in one of our base districts.
[Lemon:] And a Democratic strategist would say the same thing that you are saying, that other Democrats around the country should probably copy that as well and get rid of some of the litmus test candidates. Listen, I want to ask you guys, about this important, Michael, I'll start with you first. These possible youth wave in November. What impact do you think that is going to have on top of this? Look how organized all this young people were today about the school walkout and that core really, you know, really doesn't favor President Trump according to the polls, Trump's approval rating is at decimal 22 percent among 18 to 34-year- olds, that is according to the latest CNN polls, what do you say to that, Mike?
[Murphy:] Well, I'll say one, I'm impressed by all kinds of activism. And these kids have been particularly impressive to me. Makes me feel better about the democracy, even if I don't agree with them on every single issue. Now, you hit a real Republican worry here. Because generally in the off year election, where 85 to 90 million people vote, we do well, because grumpy old white guys like me, I'll show up and vote and they tend to be more Republican. In the Presidential year around 139, 140 million people vote and a lot more, and they and a lot of those of young voters show up only in the Presidential years. So if young voters, who as you cited in the polling data don't like this President very much, decide this is a year to be active and to do what they normally don't do, which is show up and vote that becomes a big part of the blue wave that we can be looking at. Theresa May, saw something like that in Britain, in the elections where the conservatives underperformed. We are seeing it in the special elections like Virginia and other places. We don't have exit polls in Pennsylvania. I'll bet you see it there particularly in Allegheny county. So, yes, it is the other part of the equation. Young Presidential year, lean Democrat voters get energized to not to flood the lower turn out midterm elections and that is good news for the D's.
[Lemon:] I want to get your take on this Mark and as I do that I understand you had a chance to be with some students during the walkout today. Tell us about that.
[Mckinnon:] I did. I went to Fairfield High School in Boulder today, where a walkout was organized. All 2,200 students walked out and were silent for 17 minutes which is hard to do for anybody of any age, but to see them all activated and there were three students from Parkland, who were there as well. But I was really impressed not only by the energy and their activism, but it was really civil. You know, all sides of the debate were represented. It was it was the kind of debate that I wish, I'd see more among adults. And so but to Mike's point, midterm elections are all about energy and who is energized. And it's just the case that, you know 18 to 34 demo's is a heavily Democratic leaning group. And what I saw in Boulder, Fairfield High School, that I was, these kids are activated, they are energized and they are taking action and they're going to show up at the polls.
[Lemon:] Mark McKinnon, Mike Murphy, always a pleasure, thank you.
[Murphy:] Thank you.
[Lemon:] When we come back, the main challenging Paul Ryan for his House seat in November, Iron Stash. I'm going to ask him how he plans to ride the blue wave in Wisconsin.