[Burnett:] Breaking news. Polls just closing in Georgia, several high-stakes runoffs tonight with big implications for the midterms. Trump, himself, weighing in on the governor's race in Georgia today, tweeting, "Today is the day to vote for Brian Kemp, will be great for Georgia, full endorsement." The Republican winner facing Democrat Stacy Abrams, who would be America's black female governor if she won. Tonight's polls closing as a top election forecaster is shifting, 17 House races away from sure Republican wins. That would be a sea change. Larry Sabato's crystal ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics is moving eight House races to toss-up. These were all eight of them lean Republican, now in pure toss-up. Is there a blue wave coming? I'm using that word, because that's what a Republican is calling it today. I want to go now to Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball. He's the one who wrote this piece today on the shift, April Ryan, American Urban Radio Networks' White House Correspondent and our Senior Political Analyst, Mark Preston. Kyle, you did the research here. We're talking about 17 races shifting, eight of them specifically going from lean Republican to toss-up. What's causing the shift?
[Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball:] Well, I think it's big picture factors and also individual factors in these districts. So, you know, for much of this cycle, we've seen that, you know, the President's approval ratings have been kind of in the low 40s. The House generic ballot, a national poll that asks the voters whether they're going to ask for a Democrat or a Republican in their respective house district. It's been around a lead of about, democratic lead of about six to eight points, which is about in the range where you would think that the Democrats would have a decent chance to win the House. We just got the second quarter fund-raising reports from the FEC for April through June. Dozens of House Republicans got out-raised by their Democratic challengers. Some of those races are among the ones that we moved today. And also, history just suggests that, you know, when a party takes control of the White House, as the Republicans did in 2016, there's often a price to be paid more that. And 36 of the 39 midterms since the civil war, the president's party has lost ground in the House. So you put all of that stuff together, and you could start to see how the Democrats could net the 23 seats they need to win control of the US House.
[Burnett:] All right. So there, you know, there's lot of Democrats who are really thrilled to hear you say that. April, I want to mention those. Some Democrats I've spoken to, they say, look, you know, the number Kyle puts out there, 23, and they go, gosh, we might only get five. They're terrified that they just don't have the excitement and the enthusiasm to deliver on what Kyle is saying could be possible. Do you think Democrats can actually pull this off?
[April Ryan, White House Correspondent, American Urban Radio Networks:] Let me say this, Erin. Politics is personal. And for this political season, it is about how personal is the politics for you, and if you go to the polls. This is just a moment, a straw holes moment of the time. We've still got a little ways to go. And if the elections were to happen today, there's a lot of discontent. And people are revved up to go. But what happens in November for some of those elections in November? You know, and I think about how the GOP, it's in favor for the GOP, when you have white people who white GOP members who like to go to the midterms. They are known to go to the midterm elections. Also, there are issues of the economy. It's doing well. Also, you have gerrymandering.
[Burnett:] Yes.
[A. Ryan:] So you've some things that are in favor of the Republicans, but then you have Democrats who are very upset about this climate. The NAACP is talking about vote now because of the atmosphere of hate. You've got people who are on the immigration issue who are very upset. Again, going back to the issue, the politics is personal. And how personal is it for you? It determines if you go to the polls and vote.
[Burnett:] So and that's the crucial question, mark. Now, you know, Kyle is going through some of the numbers he's been running, right, for the House. On the Senate side, a senior democratic senator told me recently that he thinks Democrats can take the Senate. He thinks it's going to be 51. Possible?
[Mark Preston, Cnn Senior Political Analyst:] Look, anything is possible in this political environment. I think that is rather ambitious, given where these races are playing out. Ten of these races are playing out in states that Donald Trump won by double digits. Let's just take three of those away, such as Michigan and a couple of others. And you're looking at incumbents that are in very, very difficult races right now.
[Burnett:] Yes.
[Preston:] Democratic incumbents, meaning Bill Nelson down in Florida, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp out in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana. The reason why we say is
[Burnett:] By the way, he has all of those as wins. Of course.
[Preston:] He has all of those as wins. And they're all different states, mind you. So Trump country isn't just in the middle of the country, right, Erin?
[Burnett:] That's right.
[Preston:] It is pockets around and that is going to be difficult for Senate Democrats.
[Burnett:] So, Kyle, this whole issue of the blue wave, right? That I was referring to Republican Representative Kevin Yoder. He's from Kansas. He told David Drucker of the Washington Examiner about his campaign saying, quote, "My assumption is, we could be heading towards a 500-year flood, a Democratic wave." Now, those are some big those are some big words. What do you say, Kyle? Realistic?
[Kondik:] Well, look, you know, Yoder is an interesting case because he's one of the 25 Republicans that represent a district that Hillary Clinton won in the last presidential election. You know, in 2010, we had the Republicans pick up 63 seats, but part of the reason for that was that the Democrats were defending almost 50 seats that John McCain had won in the previous presidential election. So I mentioned that there were just 25 of those so-called crossover seats. And so, the Republicans aren't as exposed in 2018 as the Democrats were in 2010. However, you know, if things break right for the Democrats, I think you could see them pick up significantly more than the 23 seats they need, you know, 30, 40, maybe even 45 seats, something like that. And I think that would probably classify from Yoder's perspective, as sort of a huge wave.
[Burnett:] It sure would. And I just have to say, you know, when I'm hearing the Democrat strategist who was telling me, what if we only get five seats from the 23. And you're saying possibly 45. I mean, it's amazing how uncertain the situation is. And as we have this poll closing tonight, Mark, in Georgia, right? There is this whole side story that's become much more of a front story than the candidates want. One Georgia Republican making waves that state representative Jason spencer, who actually went on an episode of Sacha Baron Cohen's new series. In which Cohen post an Israeli terrorism expert convinced Spencer that saying the N-word would help for terrorist. This actually happened, this is actually real. Let me play it for you.
[Sacha Baron Cohen, British Actor:] In America, there is one forbidden word. It is the N-word. Now, I am going to be the terrorist. You have three seconds to attract attention. Go.
[Jason Spencer, Georgia Lawmaker:] [Inaudible].
[Cohen:] Are you crazy? The N-word is nuni, not this word. This word is disgusting.
[Burnett:] And then Spencer pulled his pants down after being told it would scare terrorists.
[Cohen:] We say in the Mossad I mean, not in the Mossad, if you want to win, you show some skin.
[Spencer:] OK.
[Cohen:] OK, show it to me. Now, try to touch me.
[Spencer:] I'll touch you. I'll touch you with my buttocks. I'll touch you. Drop the gun or I'll touch you. USA.
[Burnett:] OK, yes. I see the look on your face, Mark. I can see the look in your face.
[Preston:] USA, how about that?
[Burnett:] The two gubernatorial candidates here, Kemp and Kagel, in this runoff today, have condemned everything about this, right? But yet they were forced to talk about it.
[Preston:] Yes, they were. I mean, look, this is very embarrassing. This is a terrible thing right now for the Republican Party, because you have one individual who is a Republican, who is now saying and doing things that cast terrible aspirations upon the Republican Party as a whole, OK? So that in itself I should point out that that state rep is not somebody who was necessarily well liked in Georgia amongst his colleagues, somebody who had lost a primary and is going to be out of office in five months anyway. So good chance we won't see him around. But I will say this, though. Talk about this Georgia race, you know, we'll get a Republican nominee tonight, wow! Because you have two candidates right now on the Republican side that are running so far to the right. I mean, they've talked about Kemp has talked about driving around the state of Georgia in his pickup truck and picking up illegal immigrants and taking them back to Mexico. So you have that. And then as you pointed out at the top, Stacy Abrams, who is this progressive firebrand that could be the first African-American governor ever elected. It's amazing.
[Burnett:] It's amazing. And the choice is stark, just to be clear, when you talk about Kemp driving around in his pick up truck, picking up illegal immigrants we should say, again, Trump came out today with a full-throated endorsement of Kemp. April, pretty incredible though that you have a video like that. That became that the Republicans candidates, where we're going to get the results here momentarily, had to talk about.
[Ryan:] Yes. You know, this is Sacha Baron Cohen just played on the climate right now. And for some business, what they want. This is the political incorrectness that we're seeing from the head. And, you know, this candidate felt it was OK. But, you know, it comes out of state of Georgia, where you have a potential African woman to be the new governor of that state, turning this to Stacey Abrams, turning it purple. We're not in a moment in 2018 where we should be doing that kind of thing. We're going backwards instead of forwards.
[Burnett:] All right. Thank you all so very much. I appreciate it. And next, the alleged Russian spy, Maria Butina's cryptic message to Russia after Trump win. What did she mean? Four lawyers is my guest. Plus, our special OUTFRONT series Bill Weir tonight on the ground in Alaska, at the town at the heart of one of Trump's most controversial moves.
[Bill Weir, Cnn:] There are three top conversations most days, polar bears, the weather and Donald Trump. Are you a fan of President Trump?