[Anderson:] Well, our top story this hour is the battle for Mosul where the fighting has been going all out now for a week. Let me break down what you need to know so far. Iraqi forces claim they have freed dozens of towns and villages, but many were already empty and are booby trapped. CNN reckons that an area a little over half the size of Lichtenstein has been clawed back. In doing that, almost 800 terrorists have been reported killed. But, Iraqi forces aren't saying how many of their own troops have lost their lives. Running from that fighting, the UN says thousands of people have trickled out to refugee camps, but it's expecting that to turn into a flood of 1 million souls or about twice as many people who live in Scotland's capital Edinburgh. Just to give you a context, I'm pleased to welcome back a good friend of the show, Fawaz Gerges, who is here with me now. He's chair of contemporary Middle East studies at the London School of Economics, and as I say, a regular guest on this show. You wrote ISIS are history. It's an excellent read. Is ISIS now, well, history?
[Fawaz Gerges, London School Of Economics:] No, I don't think so, not yet. ISIS sadly is going to be with us for many years. The loss of Mosul, though, which really represent a turning point. It would mean the beginning of the end of the territorial caliphate, the territorial Islamic State, as opposed to the end of ISIS as a terrorist organization, or as an insurgency. So ISIS will be with us for many years. But if and when Mosul falls in the next few weeks, this really would be a turning point in the caliphate in the Islamic State. So the effort to defeat ISIS in Iraq is a multipronged attack. The Turks would like to be involved in that. They say they are Iraq and Turkey though are at odds over Mosul because Turkey as I say wants to jump into the fight and Iraq wants it to sit on the sidelines. Here's why Ankara is so keen, Fawaz, and I want you to provide some context for this, like Turkey, most people in Mosul are Sunni Muslim, so Turkey wants to protect them, along with ethnic Turkmen, mostly from powerful Shiite groups backed by Iran. Now, Turkey worries Iran could turn Mosul into an outpost for its influence. Then there are the Kurds. While Turkey is on good terms with some of them around those parts I'm talking about the Kurds in Iraq it wants to keep others, like the PKK, in check. Plus, Ankara wants to use Mosul as a platform to make sure it has a say in other Iraqi cities like oil rich Kirkuk. Can Turkey achieve its goals in Iraq at this point?
[Gerges:] Again, it's a very, very difficult situation. Iraq is a very complex country, is deeply fragmented. There's a great deal of opposition to Turkish involvement in Iraq. The Iraqi prime minister has come from under tremendous pressure from inside Iraq to really refusing any kind of support from turkey. The Iraqi government accuses the Turkish government of basically turning a blind eye to the flood of ISIS supporters into Mosul. But as you've suggested, I mean, Turkey has a particular grand ambition, not only in Mosul but also in Aleppo. It wants to be the leader of the Islamic world. It wants to come across as defending the Sunni community.
[Anderson:] It could do that should these ISIS fighters be leaking out of Iraq and into Raqqa in Syria, for example. Turkey could end up being a hero to a certain extent in all of this so far as the coalition is concerned, if it would help to rid ISIS there shortly. It's complicated, isn't it?
[Gerges:] It's very complicated. My take on it, and you have already suggested, Becky, that Turkey wants a voice in the post ISIS Iraq and Syria. It also, remember, there is oil in Kirkuk and Mosul, big oil, and Turkey is really starved for economic and oil resources. It wants also to have good relations with the Kurds in Iraq, the Kurdistan, the Iraqi Kurdistans as a counterweight to the PKK. So it has multiple aims at the reality is much more complex as we've seen in Syria. And finally, I would argue, at the end the day, the United States realizes how difficult this particular situation is trying to mediate between Turkey and Iraq. So far, this will not involve any military. Basically, I mean, attacks between Turkey and Iraq, it's positioning. Those sides are trying to appeal to domestic constituencies in Turkey and Iraq and also in the region as well.
[Anderson:] Turkey will say it's got support on the ground for this coalition effort, and that's what the Americans will say about how its troops on the ground are involved as well as from, of course, though, as air force from a U.S. coalition which is helping support this effort towards Mosul. Donald Trump took to Twitter to share his opinion on the fighting, saying, quote, the attack on Mosul is turning out to be a total disaster. We gave them months of notice. The U.S. is looking so dumb. Vote trump and win again. Months of notice to ISIS that is, he's saying. Trump promising an amazing plan, an amazing plan, he says. I'm going to say that again, an amazing plan, to defeat them, but he won't tell anyone because you know it's a secret. U.S.-backed campaign is going well, right? Or not?
[Gerges:] What Donald Trump has said is rubbish. And I say it with all fairness to Donald Trump. He doesn't know much about either Mosul or Aleppo. He says the battle in Mosul is a disaster. It has not started yet. This is the first phase, even the Americans and the Iraqis are saying the second and third phase will be more difficult. And guess what, the American man in charge of the operation has said that the campaign has met all its objectives and more. Plus so the reality is, what I'm trying to say, Trump has politicized the Mosul campaign. He does not have the knowledge. He does not have the wisdom, he's incoherent and he's trying to appeal to his basically deluded supporters, look, our government is a disaster whether it's Aleppo, whether it's Mosul, whether it's ISIS, you name it.
[Anderson:] I love it when you're sitting on the fence.
[Gerges:] And I said I was fair.
[Anderson:] Listen, let me read you and this is obviously a very important conversation we are having. Let me read you this from the Jordan times newspaper. I noticed this today, and it's quite an interesting column there. The columnist Amar Al Sabaleh wrote, quote, "the message is that the current administration plays I'm talking about the U.S. plays a role in the liberation of Mosul, demonstrating the success of President Barack Obama's second term, much like the elimination was used to demonstrate the success of his first time." Amar talks about the Hollywoodesque narrative at play here. You are an expert of western foreign policy in this region. Do you worry that this Mosul offensive is turning into a battleground to win voters back in The States? In fact, and again I know quite a bit about the battle for Mosul, it was the Obama administration who has delayed the battle for Mosul for many months. In fact, it was the Iraqi government that had been pushing for a quicker date for the start of the battle in Mosul. The Obama administration said the Iraqi government was not ready. It took a great deal of time to train 30,000 forces. And guess what, Becky, President Obama will not, might not witness the liberation of Mosul during his tenure in the White House. In fact, the liberation of Mosul will not, and might not take place until the end of the Barack administration. This military man, both in Iraq and the U.S. determine the date and the logistics of the battle. Of course if I were Barack Obama I would love to see the liberation of Mosul. That's not how battles like Mosul, complex battles. Mosul is a city of 1.2 million men. ISIS has two years and half to entrench itself in Mosul. It has between 5,000 and 8,000 fighters. This battle is going to be complex, bloody, prolonged, in blood and treasure. And no administration, including Barack Obama, would basically risk any kind of amateurish relationship in Mosul. Farwas Gerges, always a pleasure. Thank you.
[Gerges:] Fine. Thanks.
[Anderson:] Well, we have heard a lot of bitter and divisive rhetoric in this U.S. presidential campaign. Donald Trump, in particular, has been accused of hate speech for his remarks about Muslims and Mexicans amongst others. You may remember when he called for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States. He said some Muslims hate America calling it a, quote, dangerous problem. Trump also came under fire for suggest a judge couldn't be fair because he is Mexican. That judge was actually born in the U.S. leading even some fellow Republicans to accuse Trump of textbook racism. And the list goes on.
[Trump:] They're sending people that have lots of problems and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people. But we have some bad hombres here, and we're going to get them out. I promise, we will build a wall, I promise.
[Cristina Alesci, Cnn Correspondent:] We all heard about the possibility that this has increased, this political rhetoric that Donald Trump is putting out there, has increased the amount of bullying and racist attitudes inside schools. But honestly, I went into this story thinking bullying has been around in schools, at least here in the U.S., since the beginning of time and I'm sure around the world. So I went to this the school outside of Seattle, Washington, which you could argue is probably one of the most tolerant schools in the country, 90 different languages spoken, lots of immigrants, some refugees, and what I found was not just run of the mill bullying, I found something way more disturbing. The question, of course, is is it Donald Trump's fault.
[Shukri Diriye, Student:] I've never heard anyone call me a terrorist until this year.
[Cristina Alesci, Cnn Money Correspondent:] Shukri Diriye is an American. She was born in Colorado.
[Diriye:] My parents are immigrants from Somalia. They left it because of the civil war.
[Alesci:] Now, she's a middle schooler in Tacoma, Washington, in one of the most diverse school districts in the country.
[Diriye:] There's people from a different background. You never feel left out because there's always someone that looks like you.
[Alesci:] Students here say they used to feel safe and welcome. But rhetoric on the campaign trail has changed that. In a nonscientific survey by the Southern Poverty Law Center, one-third of educators reported an increase in bulling and Muslim or anti-immigrant sentiment in schools.
[Debbie Aldous, Teacher:] I think the main difference I've noticed the last year and a half, has been the tone. Now, they have words that they are throwing around, labeling other kids.
[Alesci:] Like what?
[Aldous:] Things like towel head or you should run back to the border. These are things that we hadn't been hearing before. And our population hasn't changed. What has changed to me is the political rhetoric.
[Alesci:] Is it all Donald Trump's fault? Not necessarily.
[Jonathan Zimmerman, University Professor:] These metaphors and these ideas and these fears predated Trump and are extent in a much bigger swath of our population than just the people who are going to vote for Donald Trump.
[Alesci:] Polls show half the U.S. population supports a temporary ban on Muslims entering the U.S. Yet...
[Zimmerman:] The Trump candidacy has obviously played a large role in triggering these episodes. It's made lots of people and their kids feel more free to express certain bigoted ideas.
[Alesci:] For Shukry, the bullying has shaken her confidence.
[Diriye:] Even for me, like, I had my doubts. What if I'm the bad person in this situation? What if I tonight deserve to be in this country? I felt like that sometimes. I knew I was accepted. But he kept saying those things, I thought, well, I'm not American. I'm not from this area. Even though I was born and raised here, I'm not someone that deserves to live here. That was really, like, Somalia never had a civil war. I wish I could have stayed there, with people that look like me. I wouldn't be the different person.
[Alesci:] The studies show there's definitely an increase in depression and anxiety with kids who are bullied, but what hasn't been studied is this specific kind of bullying. But clearly a lot of pain is being felt right now.
[Anderson:] Yes, absolutely, good reporting, thank you. Remember, you can get an update on the presidential race in its entirety around the clock on the website. Florida in the headlines today as early voting, of course, gets underway there. CNN's political director explains why it's such a critical battleground state in what is his daily podcast. That and much more on CNN.com, definitely worth a listen, that. Live from Abu Dhabi, this is Connect the World. Coming up, the president of The Philippines trying to clean up some controversial comments, but is the damage already done? A report from Manila just ahead.