[Lou Dobbs, Cnn Anchor:] Good evening, everybody. In two hours from now, President Bush will hold his first primetime news conference in a year. President Bush will address the nation as he faces declining personal approval ratings and plummeting support for his so- called Social Security reforms. Social Security is likely to be one of the main subjects of the president's news conference tonight. In a moment, our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, will report on the latest presidential poll numbers. But we begin with Suzanne Malveaux at the White House Suzanne.
[Suzanne Malveaux, Cnn White House Correspondent:] Well, Lou, just to underscore how important this is for the White House to get forward its message on Social Security reform and energy legislation, the press conference was actually moved up by a half-hour in negotiations with several television networks to make sure that they would actually take the president's news conference live. It certainly underscores the importance of the message that he has been delivering. It has been some 60 days and 60 stops, a campaign that was launched. The president selling his Social Security plan to allow younger retirees to create those private investment accounts, and it has been a very tough sell for the president. His approval ratings even taking a dip in the recent weeks. The latest "Washington Post"- ABC poll showing overall job approval, 47 percent approve of the job he's doing. Fifty percent disapprove. That is an all-time low for the president for his second term. Also, of course, another top issue that he is going to be dealing with, that is his energy legislation. The bottom line, the president wants to convince Americans that he is concerned just like they are with the soaring gas prices despite the fact there is very little that can do about it. He has a proposed energy plan that has languished in Congress for the last four years. It was just yesterday he made a new announcement saying they would try to create these refineries on closed military bases. It is still questionable whether or not that is going to come to fruition. And finally, of course, it was just days ago that he met in Crawford with the Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah to ask him to boost their crude oil production. The Saudi Crown Prince saying he would make a long-term commitment over the next 10 years, but certainly not a short-term commitment that will make any difference when it comes to gas prices. So, clearly, Lou, the president trying to put forward to the American people, in some ways getting around members of Congress, that he is, yes, concerned about gas prices, and that he also wants to do something about Social Security despite the fact that many polls show that Americans just aren't buying it Lou.
[Dobbs:] Any suggestion from the White House staff that the press conference tonight, the news conference is motivated in large measure by these declining poll numbers?
[Malveaux:] Well, they're certainly aware of those poll numbers. They like to play them down. But they clearly see that the 60-day period, it's basically expiring on Sunday. And the polls show that there are not a lot of Americans, at least not the majority of Americans, that are buying into this plan. They say they are going from phase one, educating the people, to phase two, talking about solutions. But it's very clear, Lou, that they feel they need more time for this president and this administration to make its case.
[Dobbs:] Suzanne Malveaux. Thank you from the White House. The latest opinion poll says Iraq and Social Security are the issues that most Americans would like President Bush to discuss this evening. The Gallup poll is only one of several recent surveys that highlight the president's failure to sell Social Security reform. Senior political analyst Bill Schneider now has our report. Bill, just how bad are these poll numbers for the president's Social Security proposals?
[William Schneider, Cnn Sr. Political Analyst:] Well, Lou, in January the numbers started out bad, and then they got worse as the president entered his 60-day tour around the country to sell his ideas. Fifty-five percent said they disapproved of the way the president was handling Social Security back in January. The latest figures from the "Washington Post"-ABC News poll, 64 percent, better than two to one, say they disapprove of the president's handling of Social Security. We've also seen this sense of a crisis in Social security going down, particularly with the stock market numbers. That's not helped the president make his case. One question "The Post" asked is, "would you support or oppose a plan in which people who choose to could cover could invest, rather, some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market? Now, it's been consistent since 2000 most Americans think that's a good idea if you do not mention possible reductions in Social Security benefits. But this month for the first time most Americans say they would oppose any kind of personal or private investment account.
[Dobbs:] And Bill, within that, is there a suggestion because one of the things that we know on this broadcast, our audience is very, very smart. No reform of Social Security without reducing benefits or without raising taxes andor extending the point at which one becomes eligible for those benefits, reduced or otherwise. What part is that playing? Because there's very little discussion of this in this campaign by the president, or in terms of the utterings by members of Congress.
[Schneider:] Americans have gotten the message that any kind of private or personal investment account would involve most likely a reduction in guaranteed benefits. Americans see Social Security as an insurance policy. Any mention of reducing guaranteed benefits automatically literally turns Americans off and you see a huge reaction against that. They want Social Security to be there with a guaranteed benefit as an insurance policy. And they have gotten the message that this would be endangered by these investment accounts.
[Dobbs:] And, of course, they are being faithful, if others are not, to the original purpose and promise of Social Security.
[Schneider:] Yes.
[Dobbs:] Thank you very much, Bill Schneider, for your analysis.
[Schneider:] Sure.
[Dobbs:] One other huge concern for the White House is the rising public anxiety about the state and strength of our economy. New economic growth figures for the first three months of this year show our economy growing at the slowest rate in two years. The government said the growth rate was 3.1 percent. One reason, slower spending by consumers and higher inventories on the part of businesses. But another principal reason, the huge influx of imports into this country. Imports rising twice as fast as U.S. exports. As a result, our trade deficit has exploded. It is literally choking our economic growth in this now $12 trillion economy. Without a trade deficit, our growth rate would have been 4.6 percent, 50 percent higher than the actual growth rate. It's also a clear indication of the extremely high cost of so-called free trade. This network will have live coverage tonight of the president's news conference. Our special programming begins at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific. Paula Zahn and Wolf Blitzer will be anchoring. President Bush today congratulated Iraq's leaders after they ended months of political deadlock and chose a new government. But several key cabinet positions remain unfilled largely because negotiators have failed to reach a final agreement on the division of responsibilities. Ryan Chilcote reports from Baghdad.
[Ryan Chilcote, Cnn Correspondent:] Three months after national elections, members of Iraq's National Assembly finally raised their hands and approved a government. But it's only a partial cabinet. The country's prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, was expected to announce the names of all of his cabinet ministers, but moments before the vote said he was unable to decide on seven of the 36 posts. He says he hopes to fill those jobs soon. Until then, he and his deputies will occupy them. Among the vacancies, the top jobs in the all-important defense and oil ministries. Navigating Iraq's numerous ethnic and religious
[Dobbs:] The United States now faces as well a serious crisis that is worsening on the other side of our southern border in Mexico. President Vicente Fox now appears to have backed down for at least now in a confrontation with the mayor of Mexico City. But that confrontation has raised troubling questions about political instability and corruption in Mexico. Kitty Pilgrim reports.
[Kitty Pilgrim, Cnn Correspondent:] The public pressure was building as hundreds of thousands of people marched through Mexico City in support of Mexico Mayor Lopez Obrador, what they call a silent protest. Experts say in the face of such demonstrations Mexican President Vicente Fox was forced to make a conciliatory gesture. That came today. Vicente Fox announced his attorney general would resign who led the effort to prosecute the Mexico mayor. The thinking was Obrador's legal problems would keep him from running in next year's presidential election.
[Allyson Benton, Eurasia Group:] I do believe that the government felt that the taking Lopez Obrador out of the race, or at least going through with a trial and weakening his public credibility, that the government really felt that they could manage the situation, that they could come out looking clean, that Lopez Obrador would come out looking dirty.
[Pilgrim:] But if that was the plan, it backfired. Some 60 percent of Mexicans think the charges against Obrador were politically motivated. President Fox has fallen in the opinion polls since the political battle began.
[George Grayson, College Of William & Mary:] But in recent weeks he's been really receiving extremely negative publicity around the world, but especially in the United States because of what appears to be an authoritarian, high-handed and perhaps unconstitutional move to bar the most popular politician in the country from the 2006 presidential contest.
[Pilgrim:] Obrador now more than ever is seen as the frontrunner in the presidential elections of 2006. Mexico City's mayor made his reputation as a man of the people, promising to work for Mexico's poor if elected, already instituting measures to raise the plight of the less well off. President Fox was backpedaling today, saying, "As head of state my duty is to promote national unity." Well, it's clear that the Obrador incident damaged his party's reputation not just as home, Lou, but also in the international community.
[Dobbs:] Well, it is a stark reminder that Vicente Fox's government has failed to prosecute and bring to justice any of the political targets of the scandals of recent years whatsoever, and that this president is an abject failure in terms of his economic and political policies within Mexico.
[Pilgrim:] It's a very transparent political ploy what just happened. And everyone saw it for what it was.
[Dobbs:] And the next interesting phase will be where Lopez Obrador decides to go, and his newfound political freedom reinstated by the removal of the attorney general. Thank you. Kitty Pilgrim. Up next here, identity crisis. A shocking hole in our defenses against illegal aliens, and certainly the possibility of terrorists. Dozens of people have been arrested. We'll be telling you about that. And port security. Is the federal government failing to protect critical parts of our national infrastructure? Two leading members of Congress will join us next to discuss their proposal to raise port security. Stay with us.