[Cabrera:] We have this just in, a pro-Trump boat parade in Texas goes awry when several boats start to sink. These are images coming in from Lake Travis. Officials say they responded to multiple calls involving boats in distress. No immediate information is available on injuries. But according to a Facebook page about this event, more than 2,600 people had been scheduled to attend the parade. Twenty years ago, a great journalist predicted what would happen in an election by writing one word three times on a white board. And, boy, was he right.
[Tim Russet, Former Nbc Moderator, "meet The Press":] There are still some votes that have not been counted.
[Unidentified:] And there's still votes to be counted because we're at 99.8. Broward and Palm Beach are the uncounted votes. What if this goes the other way?
[Russet:] Well, it's only 3:17. We're here. Cameras are hot.
[Unidentified:] That's entirely possible. Because we've got Tim gets his board out.
[Cabrera:] That was the late Tim Russert saying about the 2000 election what many analysts are saying now: Florida, Florida, Florida. For one thing, no Republican has won the White House without Florida since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Plus CNN's own Harry Enten says models suggest, if Biden takes Florida, his odds of winning the Electoral College are 95 percent. But it could be a nail-biter. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows a tight race with Biden up by just three points right now, 59 days out from the election. Joining us now is Marc Caputo, senior political reporter for "Politico" in Florida. And, Marc, be our eyes on the ground there in Florida. What are you seeing? What are you hearing from voters about this race and who might have the momentum at this point?
[Marc Caputo, Senior Political Reporter, "politico":] Oh, it really depends on who you talk to. We're really a polarized state. In fact, 2000 was a good intro to this because it was at that point that we really saw how equally divided this state has been. And like the past, what, four, five, top of the ticket races have been decided by about a point or less. In 2018, two or actually three of the races were decided by less than half a point. So it just gives you an idea of how close it is. That Quinnipiac poll you mentioned, Quinnipiac has a tendency of polling Florida pretty well for Democrats. And then Democrats end up losing the state. Quinnipiac's not alone there. I would urge you to talk about the margin of error. Because when you factor that in, it's basically a tie. And the state is probably basically a tie. It will be a tie on Election Day, probably. And it might be a tie after Election Day, who knows.
[Cabrera:] Do you have any idea of how long it could take for us to get results from Florida, then?
[Caputo:] No. That's a good question. One of the advantages that Florida has is this. We have a robust mail-in, or we still call it, or at least I do, absentee ballot program. We have a lot of absentee ballot voters. And the Democrats have really poured it on and converted a lot of their voters to voting-by-mail voters. We have a long 10 to eight-day, depending on what county you live in, in-person early voting period. So all those votes get logged into the system before Election Day. And so we could have 75 percent of the vote passed and actually logged into the system by election supervisors before Election Day. So it's 7:01 p.m. Eastern standard time, you're going to see a lot of votes start to really load in from a lot of the counties. So, Florida could be I won't say decided early but we could have a really great idea of Florida's results by 9:00 p.m., maybe 10:00 p.m. Understand we have two I don't know what just happened to my computer. I don't know if you're still there.
[Cabrera:] We hear you and we see you. You're still with us.
[Caputo:] All right, great. Well, it was one of those moments in live at-home television where my computer suddenly went kind of blue. I can't see you. In Florida, we have two time zones and so some of our polls close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time, the others close at 7:00 p.m. Central. So the official results don't start to pour in until about 8:00 p.m. Eastern time.
[Cabrera:] A couple of other dynamics at play right now, obviously. Florida's a state that's been devastated by the coronavirus, more than 640,000 cases.
[Caputo:] Yes.
[Cabrera:] Trump won't mandate masks, neither will his big supporter, Governor Ron DeSantis. How do voters in Florida feel about the way their leaders have handled the pandemic? And how big of an impact does it have on their vote?
[Caputo:] I would assume I don't want to say I don't want to speak for voters and say how much of a how much of a difference it makes in their vote for president or not. But what we know is that Joe Biden, whether it's Florida polls or national polls, is trusted much more on handling coronavirus than the president. But we also know that Governor Ron DeSantis's poll numbers, his approval ratings, really dropped in his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, we do have a decline in cases, a decline in hospitalizations from our peak, a decline in deaths from our peak. But you know, for some of us, we've kind of seen this rodeo before, where it looked like there was a peak and then there was a lull and people were like, let's go back outside and everything's great, and then we had problems again. So, it's yet to be seen what's going to occur now that schools are back open. And the governor himself was just encouraging people to play football. In fact, he gave a speech to a high school football team at halftime or before the game saying, hey, look, if you're in Florida, you can play football. If you're in California, you wouldn't be able to play. In Jacksonville, there were a lot of video there's a lot of video footage of folks sitting pretty closely together without masks on. We're going to see if that's going to make a difference or not. But I think the coronavirus question is not settled yet. However, what we do know is the polling tells us it's an advantage for Biden. The economy is more of an advantage for the president. But his advantage there has been shrinking over Biden over the months.
[Cabrera:] OK, so, just goes to show why this race could go either way and there's still more to come between now and then that could change the race dynamics. Marc Caputo, thank you. Let's check in with you periodically as we get closer to the election. I really appreciate your time this weekend.
[Caputo:] Please do. Thanks, and we'll talk to you later.
[Cabrera:] OK. Coming up, an up-close and personal look at life on the trail from the women covering the election of a lifetime.