[Carol Lin, Cnn Anchor:] The countdown is on. Just a little more than two days to go until the New Hampshire primary, the Democratic primary. Right now, Senator John Kerry is riding high on his momentum from the Iowa caucuses. But as Howard Dean and the rest of us learned in Iowa, there is no such thing as a sure thing. Jeanne Meserve joins us now from Nashua, New Hampshire, where most of the candidates are attending an annual Democratic dinner. We watched much of it on television, Jeanne. It looked like a rousing crowd.
[Jeanne Meserve, Cnn Correspondent:] It was certainly that, Carol. And excuse the clanging behind me. They're tearing down the ballroom right now. Six of the seven Democratic contenders were here. The only one absent was Al Sharpton. The speeches they gave were very familiar. These were mostly excerpts from their standard stump speeches, but this is a crowd that very much wanted to hear them. These were the party faithful. There are about 1700 people jammed into this ballroom. A lot of them were union members. And there were heavy contingents of supporters of Howard Dean and also of John Kerry. Kerry, as he does at every opportunity, chose to emphasize his military and foreign policy expertise.
[Sen. John Kerry , Presidential Candidate:] I know something about aircraft carriers for real. And if George Bush wants national security to be the central issue of this campaign, I have three words for him that I know he understands. Bring it on! Bring it on! Bring it on!
[Meserve:] Now one of the most striking things about this evening were the similarities among the statements by the different candidates. Almost all of them railed against the special interests. They talked about jobs. They talked about education. And they talked about health care. They called for a united country. And Howard Dean and this very divided crowd called for a united Democratic party as well. The overriding theme here, however, was the need to beat George Bush in the fall. The $300,000 raised here, some of it at least will be used in the fall to support whichever one of these candidates wins the Democratic nomination. I have to tell you, Carol, the best laugh line of the night goes to Howard Dean, who started off his speech by saying, "I'm so happy to be here I could scream." And the runner-up line has to go to Joe Lieberman, who said, he felt an "outbreak of Joe momentum here in New Hampshire." Back to you, Carol.
[Lin:] All right, playing on some of their weaknesses and having a little bit of fun. All right, thanks very much, Jeanne Meserve, reporting live. Well, the race obviously showing signs of tightening. The latest CNN"USA TodayGallup tracking polls shows 35 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters going for John Kerry. That's one point up from Friday. Howard Dean stopped losing ground. He's running second with 23 percent. That's also up a point from Friday. Meanwhile, the race for third place has turned into a statistical dead heat among Wesley Clark, John Edwards, and now Joe Lieberman, who's up two points since Friday. Well, the polls only tell part of the story. If you really want to know which way the political winds are blowing, talk to the voters themselves. They are our hot topic tonight. CNN political analyst Carlos Watson has been doing the walk and talk in Manchester. Hi, there, Carlos.
[Carlos Watson, Cnn Political Analyst:] Carol, how are you doing?
[Lin:] I'm doing just fine. I'm wondering what are you hearing on the ground?
[Watson:] You know, I visited a number of different malls, restaurants and other places. And you certainly hear that John Kerry has the lead, but three things stand out about that lead, Carol. One, it's kind of a passionless lead. You don't see people really excited. You see them saying that, you know, I was with Howard Dean or leaning towards other people, and now I've kind of flipped over. And you've seen Kerry go from being behind by 15 points to up by 15 points. And so, it's really kind of a thin lead. The second thing that really stands out, as you kind of talk to people and get a feel for what's going on, is that New Hampshire voters who often have ignored the advice of Iowa, this time around seem to be, I don't know, a little undecided, a little confused, a little too willing almost to believe in the electability strategy and follow what Iowa's doing. And I'm curious as to whether that'll continue to be true over the next three or four days.
[Lin:] So what do you think people are basing their decisions on when these pollsters talk to them?
[Watson:] I think a lot of people, again, are saying that I thought Howard Dean was the presumptive favorite, you know, two weeks ago and certainly for the last several months. And all of a sudden, the ground has shifted. And so, they've moved along with the momentum. And everybody loves a winner. And they think of Kerry as someone who is safe, if you will. He's the guy next door. And so I think that's where you're seeing a lot it come from. But it's not a deep well of support. And certainly if Kerry wins here, I think part of his challenge as he moves on to February 3rd and the rest of the country, will be to deepen his support.
[Lin:] Where do you think the race stands then, Carlos?
[Watson:] Well, Howard Dean, according to some polls, seems to have recovered a little bit. One poll even shows him closing to within single digits, not great single digits, but kind of eight or nine points. And certainly if you talk to his campaign people, their spirits seem to be up. And you heard the governor's joke as Jeanne shared. You know, he sounds in a much better place. But I'll say this about New Hampshire polls. New Hampshire polls are notoriously bad and notoriously wrong. In 2000, some of the polls showed George Bush up by two points over John McCain the night before. And you remember what happened, Carol. Of course John McCain won by 18 points. They showed Al Gore up by double digits. And you recall that he beat Bill Bradley only by four points. So we've got to be a little bit careful, even though it seems right now that maybe Howard Dean's getting a little bit of bounce.
[Lin:] Well, Wesley Clark has got to take heart in that, then, because it seems like he's starting to stall out there in New Hampshire. And his bet on not playing out in Iowa may have been a bad one?
[Watson:] Well, you know, the general's got to relook at his strategy. But there are three or four days left. Last time around in 2000, six percent of voters at this point with four days left were undecided. Now as many as 20 percent of voters say they're undecided or they're wavering. So certainly there's more room and there's a little more hope, if you will, for the general. But if he doesn't do well here, meaning a third or fourth place finish, he certainly has got to go into February 3rd with a must win in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and a couple of other places.
[Lin:] So the campaign organizations on the ground, did they work the same as they did in Iowa, going to door to door? A lot of, you know, hand to hand contact, talking about the candidates, talking about the opposition?
[Watson:] You do. I met a very nice voter named Lisa. And I promised that I would mention her, because she told me that she was receiving as many as 15 phone calls a night from the different campaigns. And so, so you can imagine she's not that excited. And it's hard to eat dinner when you're getting 15 calls. But yes, lots of canvassing, as they call it, where you knock on a door and you hand out a leaflet, or you try and engage the potential voter in a conversation. Lots of phone calls. And here's what the Howard Dean campaign is doing. Taking a page out of Bill Clinton's 1992 handbook, they are handing out 50,000, that's right 50,000, of the videotapes of the Diane Sawyer interview...
[Lin:] Oh, my.
[Watson:] ...hoping that that'll hey, hey, you know, time is short and they've got to do something. So that's what they're doing as we speak.
[Lin:] All right. Thanks so much. Some nice Saturday night viewing, I suppose, if they want it. All right, thanks, Carlos. Have fun out there.
[Watson:] Carol, it's always good to see you.
[Lin:] You, too.
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