[Keilar:] There is no question that everyone wants to get back to some semblance of normalcy. The question is when. And one global health expert is warning that it could take two years until the summer of 2022 for Americans to truly experience normal again. That is what Lawrence Gostin is tweeting and he warns that we still don't fully understand this virus six months into it. Lawrence Gostin is a Professor of Global Health Law at Georgetown and he's joining us now. Thank you so much for being with us. This is unwelcomed news. You know this is not popular for people to hear you saying this. Normalcy won't return until summer 2022. Explain this timeline to us.
[Lawrence Gostin, University Professor, Georgetown University:] Well, I'm often asked this question and I've never been able to figure it out and I don't think anyone did and then it became more clear to me that the probabilities are that the total course of the pandemic would take about two years. We are already nearly six months into it. The reason is that if you look back at pandemic influenza in 1918, it was about a two-year trajectory. The other flu and other similar kinds of pandemics tended to have that and we do have an epidemic curve that I would expect to happen. Most people are just thinking either one of two things. They think, well, it will either go away the way SARS did, but it won't go away. I think we are going to be with it, with COVID, just living with it, forever but coping and managing with it forever after a couple of years. But the reason that SARS left or MERS or other kinds of diseases or Ebola is that they were so terribly lethal. They killed their hosts. But with COVID, it's a kind of perfect virus. It's really significantly harmful to us but doesn't have a high enough fatality rate.
[Keilar:] Yes. So the spreading continues on with people who obviously are surviving with COVID. And, you know, one of the things I've read about you that I found most alarming was that you were part of an international panel last year that evaluated the pandemic readiness of every country in the world and you found that no one was as prepared as the U.S. So what happened here?
[Gostin:] Yes. I mean, that's a real we have learned a lot. We found that our very high functioning countries, the ones that have really good health systems and preparedness, the U.S. was first, Europe was close behind, and yet they were all devastated. And, really, what it boils down to is whether or not we have the kind of government that can actually execute the plan, whether they can actually unleash all of the capacities in the health system and we haven't done that. We also haven't realized that it also takes a trusting population. It takes a population that will socially distance, that will wash their hands and most importantly that will wear a mask. And if you can get universal coverage on all of those, you do much better. So it turns out that the countries that really were highly functioning didn't do well at all. And so the lesson learned is that we actually need leadership. It matters and it matters a lot.
[Keilar:] Yes. And, look, we have seen for years and years an eroding of faith in institutions by Americans and we are seeing that play out here and also just it is a difficulty that people have in trying to figure out where to turn for answers. You mentioned masks, Professor. I want to listen to what the director of the CDC is saying.
[Gostin:] Yes.
[Dr. Robert Redfield, Cdc Director:] Actually, face coverings work. It's our major defense to prevent ourselves from getting this infection. If all of us would put on a face covering now for the next four weeks to six weeks, I think we could drive this epidemic to the ground in the country.
[Keilar:] Do you agree with that? Four to six weeks if everyone in the country wore a mask that this epidemic could be driven into the ground?
[Gostin:] Well, I agree, absolutely, that if everyone wore a mask, we would see a very significant reduction in cases and hospitalizations and deaths. That was one of the core components in the countries that have done well, like South Korea or Taiwan. But it's not the only one. And I don't think we're going to drive this epidemic to the ground for the reasons that I have said. Also, a lot of people think that, well, once we get a vaccine, it will all go away. And I don't think that's true either. We have to remember that we're not going to have enough doses of vaccines to go around and it's probably a global public good that is the world owns the vaccine, as Tony Fauci said. And in addition, it's not going to be fully effective. We have a vaccine for influenza but we still get influenza every year. And so I expect that to happen. But mask use, absolutely, we must do it. It's critical and I'm actually talking with states and CDC and WHO and others to see whether or not we can recommend a national mandate for a vaccine. I think just like we did
[Keilar:] For a mask? A national mandate for a mask, you mean?
[Gostin:] Yes, of course. I appreciate that.
[Keilar:] That's okay.
[Gostin:] National mandate for a mask. If you think about seat belts, they weren't popular at the beginning and people were saying, well, I have got my freedom and you can't take away my freedom and I can just do what I want. But if you pass a law, the public understands that we're a nation that abides by the rule of law. So not only do people have an ethical obligation to do it, you know, you help me by wearing a mask and I help you and our families and our communities. But also, I think, the law would be a useful way of actually driving home the message that, yes, folks, we do have to wear masks and we have to wear them all the time when we're in public.
[Keilar:] Professor, thank you for joining us. Professor Lawrence Gostin, we really appreciate your insight.
[Gostin:] Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
[Keilar:] One county's board of education is defying the rest of the state that it is in voting to reopen schools without social distancing, full attendance, no masks. Plus, the president's former chief of staff sounds the alarm on testing even though he called it a hoax when it counted. And anger at Florida's governor, who is calling the state's surge in coronavirus cases that has made it the epicenter of coronavirus a blip.
[Unidentified Male:] Over 4,000 people have died and you are blaming at protesters. You guys have no plans and you're doing nothing. Shame on you.