[Lou Waters, Cnn Anchor:] Now to presidential politics, ever the more complicated. And also a peek at the angst surrounding the intervention of the highest court in the land in election 2000. A book called "The Accidental President," by "Newsweek" writer David Kaplan, looks at the Supreme Court's 5 to 4 ruling that essentially stopped the Florida recounts. Kaplan quotes one of the four justices, David Souter, as saying he'd "only if he had only one more day, he might have been able to persuade one of the five others to switch sides." Kaplan says the swing vote that Souter most likely was pursuing was Anthony Kennedy.
[David Kaplan, "the Accidental President":] Justice Souter was meeting with a group of prep school students from Chode, and they were meeting at the court in a private setting, no cameras, no press there. So of course he assumed his comments would remain within the room. He told them that had he had one more day, just one more day, he thought he could have turned Justice Kennedy. Now maybe that's maybe he could have and maybe he couldn't have. This is according to Justice Souter. But at least in his mind, it was just that close.
[Waters:] One presumes Mr. Bush is happy he's president, Al Gore is sorry he's not, but the job hasn't gotten any easier since January 20th. The Bush team's number one headache at the moment may well be the slumping economy and rising unemployment just months before campaigning begins for the off-year elections. Joining us with some insights, CNN political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. The administration can't be happy with the headline "Accidental President," while Republicans reportedly are meeting, concerned about the president's potency, his image, his leadership?
[Stuart Rothenberg, Cnn Political Analyst:] You're right, Lou. And really the danger is for congressional Republicans, Republicans in the House and the Senate who are up next year in 2002, rather than the president. The president has a long time here in the White House, he can withstand a recession as long as he gets some sort of recovery before 2004. But, it's the congressional Republicans who are grateful risk.
[Waters:] Is that what the administration is counting on, a recovery? The chief White House economist is saying we're not going to have any more stimuli for the economy. We don't see a recession. We're going to have a turnaround. Is that what they're counting on?
[Rothenberg:] Well, I think, sure, yes, they are counting on some sort of recovery. But I don't think that they're dismissing the current economic circumstances, and that would be a mistake. The president is now regularly talking about the state of the economy, acknowledging the weakness, indicating that maybe it will improve when all of the refunds are returned to taxpayers. But there is an acknowledgement that circumstances are bad. If the president poo-poohed this, said oh no, there's not only is there light at the end of tunnel, we're already out of the tunnel; that would be very dangerous, because that's what his father did and his father got in trouble for not recognizing economic problems. I don't think this president wants to be whistled past the graveyard.
[Waters:] You know Bush II is early similar to Bush I. Give us an idea of how difficult it's going to be for this president to wiggle past this?
[Rothenberg:] Well, I think it's going to be quite difficult, because when you look at domestic economic circumstances, you look at the rising unemployment, you have to wonder whether consumer confidence is going to hold up, that's been the thing that's held up the economy. If that starts to erode, you'll see a broader erosion of the economy into housing prices. You have international economic events that are problems, in Argentina, in Japan. So, it looks like a worldwide economic slowdown. It's awfully difficult for one person, for the president of the United States, to turn this around. And you know the president it's not unreasonable for the president to say that this economic slowdown occurred during or started during a Clinton administration. But the fact of the matter is, the president is the guy who gets the credit or takes the blame for economic circumstances. George W. Bush may not be able to turn this around. Look, Alan Greenspan has tried to do it with cuts in the interest rates, that hasn't done it, so it's hard to imagine anybody having a magic wand. But, the president will pay the price unless there is rebound, or I should say the president and his party.
[Waters:] So, James Carvel said, it's the economy, stupid. Are we past that now?
[Rothenberg:] Oh, no. Lou. It's always the economy, stupid; unless the economy is in good shape, in which case the voters have the opportunity to look at other things, whether it's foreign policy, or the environment, or education. But if there's an economic slowdown, people are fist concerned can they put enough food on their table to keep their family happy.
[Waters:] CNN political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. Thanks.
[Rothenberg:] Sure, thanks. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com