[Roberts:] Welcome back to the "Most Politics in the Morning." Republican governors are getting together today in Miami and boy, do they have a lot to talk about. Sarah Palin is going to speak at the two-day conference and her role in the party's future will likely be a key topic of conversation. So let's get into it now. David Frum, conservative and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute joins me now. David, during the campaign you were pretty harsh when it came to the topic of Governor Sarah Palin. It looks like she could make a play for 2012. Do you feel any differently about her now? I mean, could you potentially support her run for president?
[David Frum, Sr. Fellow, American Enterprise Institute:] Well, the Republican campaign for 2012 has already started. We're probably a week into it. Your viewers will be delighted to hear there's not going to be a second interval without American politics. She is about to face the great challenge of her governorship, and we're going to see what she's really made of. In her first two years as governor, she became the most popular governor in America because she's the governor of America's biggest oil-producing state at a time when the price of oil tripled. Well, the price of oil has now dropped by two-thirds and we'll see what she's made of. Can she sustain the kind of popularity she had in Alaska with oil back down from 145 to $60 a barrel unless what kind of governor will she be in adversity? We don't know the answer to those questions. A lot will depend on them. Does she run for reelection again in 2012? Does she get reelected, sorry, 2010, I beg your pardon, that she get reelected? Or does she go for the national stage avoiding reelection?
[Roberts:] I mean, she could also try to go for the Senate, right, if they kick out Ted Stevens?
[Frum:] She could do that. And that would be a sign of not being able or willing to grapple with the difficulties in the state. She needs some decision
[Roberts:] She's probably better positioned as a governor too. Wouldn't you think?
[Frum:] Well, except you're far away. The problem, she made a lot of decisions as governor based on very high oil prices. And how those decisions will work out once oil prices come down, that's a big question mark.
[Roberts:] In terms of this bigger question of rebuilding the Republican Party, who do the GOP leaders reach out to? I mean, where is the base now? It definitely seems to have been completely well, not completely, but it has been significantly eroded.
[Frum:] Well, look, the base is fine. The base delivered 46 percent of the vote in a terrible year. That's a great turnout by the base. The problem is 46 percent is a little less than the 50 percent you need. So, we have to extend beyond the base. That's our great problem as we're very comfortable with this base. Republicans are used to be the party of the college graduate, for example. Well, Obama beat us among college graduates by 10 points. So we need to find some way of reaching out to Americans who used to be Republicans to get back over that 50 percent line. That's going to take some changes on environmental issues. It's going to take some extra changes on social issues and new economic policy. We have a lot of thinking to do.
[Roberts:] Now, you did an analysis in the publication "The Week" just recently saying, "We still have some Republican strength and the big reason for hope is the Republican super majority among white Americans, McCain got 55 percent of that vote." But then Democratic strategist Bob Shrum did a counter piece to that saying your demographics are all wrong. He pointed out that Obama "increased the Democratic share of the white vote by seven percent in Ohio, 15 percent in Virginia, 17 percent in North Carolina, and an astounding 22 percent in Indiana where he actually carried white working-class voters. And at the same time, Hispanic support for Republicans collapsed." Shrum also pointed out that younger white voters, really the future of the country here, for that particular demographic, went for Obama as well. So how do you figure out your demographics here in terms of going
[Frum:] Well, I think Bob simply who is a frequent sparring of mine simply misread that piece. My point was not that 46 percent of the vote offers hope. Obviously, if you come in a strong second in presidential politics, you're a loser. So that's not a basis for hope. It's a basis for building. You have to start with what you have and then recognize that you have problems. One of my biggest themes has been that Republicans have been losing the young and losing the educated, and we have to make changes. At the same time, we need to understand what we have. I mean as with any troubled enterprise, whether it's the Republican Party or General Motors, I mean the fact that the Buick brand is shrinking doesn't mean there are no more Buick buyers, and that you can afford to completely disregard the existing buyers. You have to consider your existing view of buyers when you try to figure out how we get more Buick buyers.
[Roberts:] Give me a real short answer here. How long is it going to take to rebuild the Republican Party?
[Frum:] I hope we can do it in one presidential cycle if we're prepared to learn and to change quickly. But if we dig in defeat, Democrats in the '80s took three cycles to get their acts together.
[Roberts:] All right. David Frum for us this morning. David, it's always good to see you. Thanks for dropping by.
[Frum:] Thank you.
[Roberts:] Take care.
[Chetry:] Twenty-nine minutes after the hour. Breaking this morning, Iran says it test fired a new generation high speed surface to surface missile. The government says that the test took place near the Iraq border. Last week, Iran warned American forces that choppers were flying too close to its airspace. Well, some good news for your pocketbook. Gas prices down again, 56 days in a row now. AAA says the average price for regular is down to $2.20 a gallon. That's a dollar drop in just a month. Your child could already have the arteries of a 45-year-old. That's the warning in a new study on obese children. Doctors say ultrasounds found that some kids as young as 10 were already suffering problems that greatly increase the risk of heart disease. Parents shouldn't treat extra weight as "baby fat" that will eventually burn off. And there's some new information this morning on just how significant Obama's historic election could be. Jason Carroll has been looking at some brand new poll numbers and he joins us this morning. Hi there, good to see you.
[Jason Carroll, Cnn Correspondent:] Good to see you too. A lot of encouraging information coming out of some of these polls. For the first time a majority of African-Americans they now see a possible end to the country's racial problems. That's a big change from just about a few months ago before the election. In the CNN opinion research poll African-Americans were asked if they though race relations would always be an issue. As recently as January, 52 percent said yes but post-election just 44 percent said yes. And here's a look at the reason why. 96 percent of African- Americans say the election will improve race relations. Half went as far to say they see it as the start of a new-era. But look at some of the other numbers in some of these polls. A quarter of whites say the election will either bring no real change or could make matters even worse. With just about four percent of blacks think that. So a lot of optimism out there in the African-American community. Here's a look at one more poll that helps explain a little more about the reasons why. We asked people if they thought they'd see a black president in their lifetime. Blacks overwhelmingly said no. 71 percent thought they would never see it. While 60 percent of whites thought it was always possible. So whites a little bit more optimistic before the election and you could say that African- Americans much more optimistic now that Obama has been elected.
[Chetry:] Very interesting how, especially how dramatic how things will improve. There's hope for the future.
[Carroll:] And who was more optimistic before the election, right?
[Chetry:] Right. Very interesting. Jason Carroll, thanks. Well, seven years after 911 even the U.S. still has not caught Osama Bin Laden. Most agree catching him is still the mission for President-elect Obama. Continuing our series now, "Memo to the President," Justice correspondent Kelli Arena explains that intelligence on Bin Laden is so limited we don't even know if he's dead or alive.
[Kelli Arena, Justice Department Correspondent:] What happened? Mr. President, Osama Bin Laden's trail has run cold. U.S. officials say they haven't had a solid lead since late 2001.
[Robert Baer, Former Cia Officer:] I talked to a dozen CIA guys that have been on the hunt for him. And half of them told me they assume he was dead, the other half say the assume he's alive but the key word here is assume. They don't know.
[Arena:] They also assume that Osama Bin Laden is hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, an area that's isolated, mountainous and difficult to navigate. U.S. predator drones have been firing a lot of hell fire missiles but drones can't replace on the ground intelligence.
[Robert Grenier, Fmr. Cia Pakistan Station Chief:] One individual who may have access to the families and the clans in a particular valley, if he goes to the valley next door and starts asking questions he's going to probably end up dead pretty quickly.
[Arena:] Cultivating informants is dicey. So what about using force? Most experts agree deploying troops in Pakistan is a no go. Those hell fire missiles have killed several Al Qaeda leaders but innocent civilians as well and that's a big political problem. Dalton Fury was the commander of the special forces near Tora Bora, Afghanistan in 2001.
[Dalton Fury, Fmr. Special Operations Commander:] It doesn't matter if you have Al Qaeda number three or one of the senior Taliban leaders. They're going to put on national television the people that you killed. So that's the strategic risk you take every time you launch that.
[Arena:] What about Pakistan's military. Can they get him?
[Grenier:] They won't do it. They've got much more important fish to fry.
[Arena:] Terrorism experts say the U.S. does too. But catching Bin Laden remains symbolically important. Unfortunately, each strategy to catch Bin Laden relies on the terrorists making a mistake to reveal his location which is not the greatest position for a super power to be in. Kiran.
[Chetry:] There's also talks that Obama wants to put more troops in Afghanistan. How would that play into the search for Bin Laden?
[Arena:] Well, I'm not going to say that won't help. But a lot of the experts are skeptical. They say that really what has to happen is, it has to happen on the Pakistan side. That's where they believe he is on that side of the border. Relations with the Pakistani military have been sketchy. Pakistani intelligence has been sketchy. All of those challenges still remain even if you have a troop build up in Afghanistan.
[Chetry:] All right. Kelli Arena for us this morning. Thanks. Also tomorrow's memo to the president, handling China. Obama's challenge to keep China as a trading partner that the U.S. needs while getting them to make reforms that the U.S. wants.
[Roberts:] Well no one likes waiting for an airplane to take off. But how long is too long for you to sit in a plane on the runway. The federal task force official guidelines are in. After thinking about it for almost a year, well guess what? They still don't know.