[Tapper:] Welcome back to THE LEAD, coming to you live from Vegas, where the curtain goes up on the last Republican debate of the year in a little under 26 hours. Our political panel is here to preview it all, the big Republican rumble, CNN's political commentators S.E. Cupp and Paul Begala and Kevin Madden. That's Republican, Democrat, Republican, for those keeping track. First thing, Paul, we were talking about this, Mike Huckabee, Governor Huckabee's big pitch about how he has experience. That is not I mean, look at the polls. That's not what Republican voters want.
[Paul Begala, Cnn Political Analyst:] Right. Right message, wrong party. I mean, usually, for all my adult life, it was the Democrats who wanted the new, the fresh. And now every Democrat running has been in elective office since disco era, even Martin O'Malley, longtime mayor, longtime governor. Hillary Clinton has been running since the last Clinton was president. I mean, my party is now the party that wants experience, but the Republicans don't. And, I mean, I like Governor Huckabee, but he's fishing where there ain't no fish right now in his party. They want something new and different. And and they're calling for it. And for him to tell you in that interview you know, he gets that rare moment of airtime, and he says, "Well, I'm the most experienced." That that's not what they want.
[Tapper:] Kevin, let's talk about tomorrow night's main debate. Huckabee will be in the undercard debate, the main one. What are you expecting in terms of Trump versus Cruz? Because Cruz really nipping at his heels in Iowa. In one poll, he's even ahead of Trump and then, nationally, he's in second place, the margin depends on what poll you look at, but he poses the biggest threat to Trump right now.
[Kevin Madden, Cnn Political Commentator:] Yes, when I think when those two have their clash, it will be interesting to see how they handle it. First of all, I think the one thing that Trump is going to come after Cruz on is immigration. Immigration was what helped Donald Trump ascend in the polls. And I think there are some areas where the Trump folks believe that Cruz is vulnerable. The interesting thing will be, then how does Cruz respond? The conventional way to respond on the debate stage is to attack back and to offer your own contrast. But Cruz has gone about the Trump fight that he's had over the last few days by trying to bear hug him. He believes that ultimately the way to win here is to offer Trump supporters himself as a vehicle for a lot of the anxieties that they have about the economy and national security and ultimately, he'll be there standing when Trump voters start to look for a more traditional candidate. And believe it or not, Cruz believes he's a more traditional candidate in that sense.
[Tapper:] Well, he is more traditional than Donald Trump. It's interesting, as you know, Trump saying his temperament is better than Cruz is, called him a maniac and as John Berman showed in his piece, the response of Ted Cruz was to tweet out a clip from the movie "Flashdance," not the hippest most modern clip from before
[Madden:] That's a lot of millennial on this one.
[Tapper:] S.E., this was a movie starring an actress named Jennifer Beals. What are you looking for on the stage? Is it the Cruz-Trump showdown or is there another contender you're looking at?
[S.e. Cupp, Cnn Political Commentator:] I'm actually going to be looking at the way that Marco Rubio deals with Ted Cruz. I think tomorrow night is incredibly important for Marco Rubio because it's a foreign policy debate. And he and Cruz are having this very interesting argument about foreign policy right now. If Marco Rubio can't define Ted Cruz's foreign policy as weak and inconsistent
[Tapper:] I think he called it isolationist.
[Cupp:] Yes, well, yes, and he's got to put Cruz on the defensive about his foreign policy at a time when terrorism is top of mind to so many Americans. If he can't make definitively make Ted Cruz look weak and inconsistent tomorrow night, I think he's Cruz is going to have a massive momentum going into Iowa. And Rubio's going to have a hard time catching up.
[Tapper:] And Donald Trump did something that a lot of people said he was not going to do, which is he well, second time he crossed the threshold, oh, he'll never get over 25 percent, 25 percent, 30 percent. Now in the new Monmouth poll, which is a respected poll nationally, he's at 41 percent.
[Begala:] It's remarkable. And he's not going anywhere. I think Kevin makes a great point, that Ted Cruz is the one person who seems to have a strategy for Donald Trump. And it's the bear hug. But that requires at some point for, you know, Mr. Trump to go down and go away, and so far he hasn't done it. So that clash to me is going to be the most exciting thing when Trump hits Ted. But you're right, I think Ted's response the worst thing Trump has done is attacked Ted Cruz's faith, which should be out of bounds in any political debate. But I suspect Ted Cruz who is a man of faith will heed Proverbs Chapter 15 Verse 1, a soft word turneth away wrath. My least favorite of the verse of the Bible, I have to say. I like a harsh word
[Madden:] Ted Cruz said something interesting the other day in the audio that leaked, he said, Donald Trump when the gravitational pull brings Donald Trump back to earth, he'll be there. Campaigns as we know voters don't look at gravitational pulls. They have a choice forced upon them between candidates, and I think that's one of the difficult things, and that's why it is conventional and risky for Ted Cruz to try and bear hug when at some point, he's going to have to force a choice for those voters between him and Donald Trump.
[Cupp:] But also Donald Trump is Ted Cruz's best friend. Before Donald Trump got into this race, Ted Cruz was viewed by the majority of the Republican base as to the very, very far right, Tea Party, some would call extremist, some would call, you know, sort of a loose cannon. Donald Trump has managed to make Ted Cruz look rational, look more appealing, more palatable to a lot of conservative voters. So, I think Ted Cruz's strategy of sort of being that guy, the more palatable version of Donald Trump at the end is very smart. I don't know if he can topple Trump, but I think that's a very smart move. And I think it's paying off especially in Iowa.
[Tapper:] Paul, you advised the pro-Hillary super PAC, right?
[Begala:] I do.
[Tapper:] OK. So, they did something interesting. They are now sending "make America great again" hats to all the Republican candidates except with a little sewn insignia at the bottom their own Trumpism which is prove you're a Christian in the case of Jeb Bush, you know, no Syrian refugee orphans for Chris Christie, et cetera. No matter who wins, Democrats are going to try to make that person Trumpified, to paint them with a Trump brush so to speak. That wasn't a hair joke.
[Begala:] If you look at what super PAC I advise is doing and what I hope other Democrats will do it is just that. Donald Trump is the leading candidate for president of the Republican Party, he therefore defines the party. And to the extent some of these guys and gals are bear hugging him or trying to be pale imitations of him, Democrats will want to lump them altogether. And they have given us fodder. This is a great challenge in a primary, you want to rev up your voters and they're doing a great job of that in the Republican Party, but they risk alienating people in the middle.
[Tapper:] Paul, S.E., Kevin, thanks so much for joining us. In case we haven't mentioned, we are just one day away from the next Republican presidential debate, the final one of 2015. You can see that right here on CNN tomorrow night at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. This has been an unpredictable election. CNN wants to know what you think will happen next. You couldn't do worse than our pundits. Go to CNN.complay, there you can make predictions, and enter a chance to win a trip to join CNN in Florida at the Republican debate in March. Coming up, is Ted Cruz the money ball candidate? How the Cruz campaign says it's using data science to read voters' minds and climb the polls. Plus, President Obama warning ISIS leaders, you're next. But is this a military strategy or a PR one?