[Kiran Chetry, Cnn Anchor:] Beards, showgirls, presidential candidates and our correspondent inside the late night studio. How the writer's strike affected the funny on this
[American Morning. Chetry:] And welcome. It is Thursday, caucus day in Iowa, January 3rd. I'm Kiran Chetry. Good morning, John.
[John Roberts, Cnn Anchor:] And good morning to you, Kiran, from Des Moines, Iowa, the Waveland Cafe, I'm John Roberts. We're here at the Waveland. It's just turned 5:00 here in Des Moines so nobody really in the diner yet, but we expect in the next 20, 30 minutes this place will get jammed. It starts early. Everybody loves their politics. We're just a stone's throw away from Drake University, by the way, so expect to get a lot of young people in this morning as well and we'll be talking politics for the next three hours. Everything here in Iowa today depends on how many people the campaigns get to turn out at school, gyms and libraries across Iowa. The precinct caucuses begin at 7:00 p.m. local time. That's 8:00 Eastern, and we could see results within a half hour of that. GOP results will come first because there's a simple presidential preference poll right at the top. The Democrats will take a little bit longer because their process is a lot more complicated than the Republicans. CNN political analyst from "Slate Magazine," John Dickerson joins us now with a look at what to watch for today. And a story that's really starting to get a lot of buzz this morning, John, is some reports out of the Fred Thompson campaign, that if he doesn't finish well, that is if he doesn't finish above third or get more than 15 percent of the vote, he may drop out before New Hampshire, ask his supporters to throw their weight behind John McCain.
[John Dickerson, Slate.com:] That's right. This is big news because on caucus day in the Republican party there is no second choice as there is with the Democrats. But this people are spending the day if they hear this story and they're Fred Thompson supporters, well, they might end up voting for John McCain, so this may have some impact in today's vote. If it doesn't going forward, if it does support McCain it will help in New Hampshire certainly, but it may really help in South Carolina.
[Roberts:] Yes. I mean, McCain could be a real viable candidate coming out of Iowa unless, of course, Fred Thompson chose well, then maybe he is the viable candidate.
[Dickerson:] That's right. We're all looking to see who's going to come in third in the Republican race.
[Roberts:] And what about on the Democratic side? You were at a Barack Obama event yesterday in Coralville, Iowa, college town, obviously, a lot of support. You wrote a column based on that saying it's all over but the moonwalking for Obama.
[Dickerson:] He was so jazzed. He was so into the moment, and he looked like a guy who is winning, you know, and the crowd was loving it. And there was this moment where he said, hold up your hands if you're a first time caucus-goer and you're planning to attend. It felt like the entire room raised their hand. The big question for Obama has been, will these first-time caucus-goers turn out, at least in that room, they are going to turn out.
[Roberts:] You were saying last night as we were chatting about this, that it seemed like he was almost doing an end zone dance.
[Dickerson:] Yes. Well, you know, it's all about tamping down expectations with most candidates.
[Roberts:] Yes.
[Dickerson:] But in his face you could not see any expectations that were anything but through the roof.
[Roberts:] What about Romney-Huckabee on the Republican side?
[Dickerson:] Incredibly close. The big thing to watch for there is how, what's the floor for Huckabee? He's taken a pounding from Romney and how far can he fall. Also, turnout for him. He doesn't have the machine Romney has for going door to door to canvas voters, so the question it's a huge question mark for him.
[Roberts:] Yes. In terms of just how the caucuses are going to operate tonight and how the vote could turn out, he put together a few deal breakers for us. Tell us about that and how they might impact what happens tonight.
[Dickerson:] Three things they talked about. Turnout, that's important for both parties. Second thing is sort of rural versus city. How do candidates do in the various different parts of the state? What does that say about their support? The other thing is second choice for the Democratic. Where do those people whose candidates aren't viable, where do they end up going in the end on the Democratic side?
[Roberts:] So this is if they don't reach this 15 percent threshold, their supporters could go elsewhere and that the results of the vote could turn around within the space of an hour?
[Dickerson:] That's exactly right and who is the beneficiary of that may determine who wins tonight.
[Roberts:] All right. We'll see you. Kucinich has said throw your support behind Obama if I'm not viable, so we'll see how that can play out. John Dickerson, you'll be with us all morning?
[Dickerson:] That's right.
[Roberts:] Good to see you again. Now let's go back up to New York, and here's Kiran.
[Chetry:] All right. Well, John, thanks. Keep it right here. We're going to be talking to many of the candidates live on AMERICAN MORNING. We have Governor Bill Richardson up first. He's coming up at our next hour. Then, we'll be talking with Senator Fred Thompson, Senator Barack Obama, as well as Congressman Ron Paul and Senator John Edwards. All of them stopping by this morning. This is the place to hear from the candidates. We're going to be talking about some of the key issues that are going to be bringing out voters, as well as some last-minute 11th-hour strategies if you will. And you can be part of the best political team on TV. For those of you caucusing in Iowa tonight, we want to hear your I-Reports about how things are going. Send us the video. Send us pictures to cnnpolitics.com. We'll feature some of them tonight. Our election eve coverage begins at 8:00 Eastern right here on CNN. There are also some new polls out this morning showing how the candidates fare in the next major battle run, and that would be the granite state, New Hampshire. Five days to go until that primary. The Franklin Pierce WBZ-TV Poll of likely Democratic voters showing Hillary Clinton with a four-point lead over Barack Obama but still a statistical dead heat. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. John Edwards polling in third place at 19 percent. And on the Republican side, John McCain has a six-point lead over Mitt Romney. Rudy Giuliani at 10 percent, Ron Paul at six percent and Mike Huckabee at five percent in New Hampshire. The New Hampshire primary is next Tuesday. Also new this morning, federal prosecutors launching a criminal investigation now into the CIA destruction of interrogation videotapes. The justice department says that Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham will be investigating whether or not the CIA broke any laws back in 2005 when it destroyed tapes that reportedly showed two high profile Al- Qaeda prisoners, including Abu Zubaydah being subjected to waterboarding, a technique that simulates drowning and is widely considered torture. Attorney General Michael Mukasey called Durham a "widely-respected and experienced career prosecutor." Also new this morning, army testing new high-tech helmets that would measure the causes and effects of traumatic brain injury. These helmets are equipped with a battery-operated sensor that can record what happens to a soldier during, let's say, an IED blast. They can also measure the jolt soldiers receive from the explosion. It's only six ounces. It attaches to the back of the helmet and according to a report in "USA Today," more than 1,000 soldiers will have them while they're deployed to Afghanistan in the spring. The military says IEDs account for almost 80 percent of injuries on the battlefield. Religious broadcaster Pat Robertson is out with his annual predictions for the New Year. He says that God told him 2008 will be a year of violence and chaos in the world. He also predicted a recession in the United States and a major stock market crash by 2010. Robertson's predictions, though, can often be wrong. Last year, the televangelist said millions of Americans would be killed in a major terrorist attack John.
[Roberts:] Kiran, a story getting a lot of play on the campaign trail today. Oil prices are near historic level this morning. Where are they headed today? Our Ali Velshi at the business update desk with more, cracked 100 bucks yesterday. Where is it going today, Ali?
[Ali Velshi, Cnn Correspondent:] Well, we're looking at it now. Oil is back down to around where it settled yesterday, $99.62. But just briefly yesterday around 12:00 Eastern time, we got above that $100 mark and today we're expecting a key report on how much oil there is in storage in the United States that's available to be used as heating oil and fuel. If that number is lower than people expect, you can expect that to top $100 again. Now the number, 100 is largely psychological, John, but the fact of the matter is we've been paying these prices that are in the high 90s, and when you look at it in gasoline terms in the $3 range for some time now and that is certainly having an effect on how people are spending. Take a look at gasoline prices. In fact, they're only up 73 cents for the year, but we've seen gas prices higher over the course of the last year. That's a 30 percent increase. When you look at the price of crude oil, it's a 60 percent increase. And as we go into these caucuses and as we talk a lot about the election, the economy remains the number one concern for Americans in 2008 and that's because 2007 saw their home prices dropping and their energy prices increasing. So this will be something to watch very keenly, certainly over the course of the next few days but for the next month or so John.
[Roberts:] Ali, during the fall you were telling us that the price of a barrel of oil should be somewhere around $60. Is there anything to indicate that maybe sometimes this year it will start to come back down?
[Velshi:] Something I thought you'd ask me about, John. In fact, yes, the long-term prospects for oil should be around $60. But as you point out very clearly, whenever I say that, this is a market and it is exactly what people will pay for it. And right now, people are prepared to pay close to $100 for a barrel of oil. That's the price of oil, but economists and people who watch this think that $60 to $70 is where we should see it long-term. Probably a little higher than that over the course of this year.
[Roberts:] All right. Ali, we'll check back in with you a little bit later on. Thanks for that.
[Velshi:] OK.
[Roberts:] Kiran?
[Chetry:] Meanwhile, Florida is under a freeze warning right now. Record low temperatures are expected in some areas. Citrus growers worried about their orange groves. Farmers say that temperatures of 28 degrees or lower for four hours can ruin an orange tree. Our Rob Marciano off today. Reynolds Wolf is at our weather update desk with a look at what Florida can expect today. They knew this was coming and they were trying to take some measures including trying to flood the fields with some warm water, the groves, I mean. But what are they looking at in terms of how long this freeze is going to be down there?
[Reynolds Wolf, Cnn Meteorologist:] They're going to be seeing this for a long cold in parts of Florida easily for today, maybe even tomorrow and every second they're dealing with these freezing conditions. It is so detrimental to those crops. Let's show you what we have right now, not just in Florida but across the southeast in terms of temperatures. These aren't windchills. These are actually issued windchill. Three is what it feels like to be exposed skin in Atlanta. Southward into Orlando, looking at 21 degrees. The windchill at Tampa with 19 right along the I-4 corridor. Now let's show you the degrees, and it is 31. That's what you have in Orlando at this hour, 26 in Jacksonville, 16 in Atlanta. And as we zoom in on parts of Florida, you could see we have the windchill warning in effect. And, Kiran, right off the east coast of Florida, not far from places like Melbourne, we have a little bit of a mix on the radar showing a little bit of freezing precipitation. We're not out of the order. It would not be out of the real comprehension to get a little bit of snow flurries on parts of I-95 so certainly something to watch out for. Meanwhile, the big easy is dealing with some big cold freeze warning in effect for much of southern Louisiana, certainly something else to be watched out for. And other temperatures from New Orleans, 30 degrees this hour. Thirty-three in Abilene, 22 in Oklahoma City and 36 in Laredo, where we have freezing conditions since some snow forming out in parts of West Texas near the Big Bend National Park. Meanwhile, as we look farther to north in Iowa, here is the story. Any surprise today for the Iowa caucus, we're dealing with very chilly conditions. Temperatures mainly into the 20s and in the teens in many spots, but the windchill factors throughout the day, they'll be in the single digits. That is the latest we've got for you. A lot to talk about weather-wise today. Let's send it back to you in New York.
[Chetry:] All right. Thanks a lot, Reynolds. We'll check in with you throughout the morning. Meanwhile, it's been a tense eight weeks of re-runs, picket lines, but the late night hosts are finally back on the air. Jay Leno, Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Kimmel were without their writers, relying more on improv, interviews. Only David Letterman and Craig Ferguson have their staff back, and some of them also had beards back.
[David Letterman, Host, "the Late Show With David Letterman":] Ladies and gentlemen, two long months but by God, I'm finally out of rehab.
[Chetry:] Our Lola Ogunnaike actually was in Dave's audience last night, and she joins us this morning. There was a lot of anticipation around the return of "Late Night." How did Dave do?
[Lola Ogunnaike, Cnn Correspondent:] Oh, that rehab joke went over really well. And another joke that went over really well, Kiran, was about him taking this time off to, you know, have some introspection and what he realized was that in this time off, he enjoys drinking, whether or not he's working or not. So that joke also was a huge hit. The chorus girls with the picket signs, another huge hit and Robin Williams definitely brought the house down. So I think, you know, the top ten Writers Guild strike stuff also worked. But after awhile, the crowd's energy started to wane a little and I think they felt that the writer strike stuff though important to discuss, it was a little heavy-handed and they just wanted to have a good time and him interviewing his associate producer did not go over well at all. You can hear crickets in the room. In fact, one of the women that I was sitting next to under her breath she said "this is boring."
[Chetry:] That's interesting, though, because he was the one who really didn't have any of those restrictions. I mean, he could have had anybody and done anything he wanted to because he was sort of back in the game.
[Ogunnaike:] Well, that was the interesting thing in a weird sort of way. Parts of his show looked like he was the one who didn't have the writing team, and parts of Leno's show looked like he did have the writing team so that was a very interesting juxtaposition there.
[Chetry:] What were some of the highlights, Leno and Conan O'Brien, two of the most well-known shows that did not have their writers?
[Ogunnaike:] Well, I thought Leno did really well with one of his field pieces. He essentially he took you to see the houses of some of the studio executives and then he took you to see the houses of the writers, and they lived in the shantytown. So that was hysterical and it just showed the disparity of, you know, the haves and the have nots.
[Chetry:] Right.
[Ogunnaike:] And you know, everyone talked about who's going to win between Leno and Letterman. The real winners here were the writers because these shows essentially acted as glorified PR campaigns for their cause.
[Chetry:] I got you. And what's up with the beards? Why are Leno and Conan wearing them or Letterman and Conan wearing them also?
[Ogunnaike:] Letterman joked about having been in rehab and not having had time to shave. But Conan was actually pretty serious about his beard and he says I have this beard in solidarity with the writers and also to prove that I have testosterone. So
[Chetry:] You know, he's not going to shave it until the strike's over. How about that one?
[Ogunnaike:] He was actually had a few good moments, too. I feel like he was the one who had the most trouble without having his writers, but at one point he jumped on his desk and danced, and that was cute. And then back stage he also had a moment where it was him playing rock band, the video game with his staff, so that also worked but his Bob Saget interview, also like watching paint dry and then watching him spin his wedding ring also did not go over well at all.
[Chetry:] All right. Well, thanks so much, Lola John.
[Roberts:] Thanks, Kiran. Showing up late to a cold blue. A new study says thousands of heart attack deaths each year could be avoided. And the San Francisco Zoo set to reopen today with new questions about a deadly Christmas Day tiger attack. A zoo witness reportedly says she saw two of the victims teasing big cats before the deadly rampage. A live report on that ahead here on AMERICAN MORNING.