[Berman:] Self-restraint is all that's stopping the U.S. and South Korea from going to war with North Korea, those words from a joint statement by General Vincent Brooks, commander of combined forces in the South, and the chairman of South Korea's joint chiefs of staff. This was not impromptu, not off the cuff. It's a message, and they don't get much blunter than that. As for what military action could look like, the options and the outcome range from difficult to nightmarish, in part because China is nearby and especially because Seoul is within artillery range of the north. Joining us now with more on all the mentions of this really difficult problem, CNN chief national security correspondent Jim Sciutto. Jim, first tell us what U.S. officials are saying happened during this missile launch.
[Jim Sciutto, Cnn Chief National Security Correspondent:] Well, when they look at it, they're saying one, it's new. And that's interesting, because the U.S. and the international community has been aware of most of North Korea's missile classes and they've been seeing advances in each class, but this one is a new category. Two, it does appear to be an attempt at an ICBM, an intercontinental ballistic missile. And what you need for that is something that can be multiple stage, can go high, can go outside the atmosphere and come back. This one did all that. One remaining question is did that so-called reentry vehicle, did it come down to Earth in a situation that was controlled, meaning they had control from start to finish. That's not clear yet. But they're certainly getting closer here. That's a lot of the ingredients, a lot of steps to get to that eventuality that everybody has been fearing, which is that North Korea has the ability to hit across continents, including hit the U.S. continent.
[Berman:] Well, and that's just the point here, theoretically how far could this type of missile potentially reach?
[Sciutto:] To Alaska. If successful, it could go to Alaska. Then the question becomes, can they take the next step of reliably miniaturizing a nuclear warhead to put on the tip of that missile? That's another step that the U.S., U.S. intelligence believes North Korea is moving closer to. They don't believe that they're at that step today. But they know they're making progress. It's interesting. James Clapper, former director of national intelligence, he told me this last year, he said that our footing is we have to assume that North Korea can do that. It's a pretty remarkable and alarming assumption to have to make that today.
[Berman:] And we heard from the generals both U.S. and South Korean saying self-restraint right now is operative. It's the only thing keeping the U.S. from going to war here. If that changes, realistically, what are the U.S. options?
[Sciutto:] Well, here's the thing, the military option, at least in terms of a preemptive strike, taking out North Korea's nuclear facilities preemptively is really not an option because of the consequences. And you named them. Seoul is very close to the North Korean border. North Korea has got a lot of weapons, rockets and artillery trained on Seoul, so that the price of a U.S. or international military strike would be very high. James Mattis said it would be unlike war we've seen in decades. Because of that, your actual options that are going to be familiar to ones that everybody listening tonight have been tried before, right? Pressure on China, economic sanctions, the possibility of talks. Where does that lead you in the end? Really, the reality that's approaching, the world recognizing that North Korea is a nuclear power and contain North Korea. That's a remarkable and alarming reality, as well.
[Berman:] That's what Richard Haass, chairman of the Council of Foreign Relations, calls acceptance. An Acceptance is not something that a lot of diplomats are willing to deal with. Jim Sciutto, thank you very, very much.
[Sciutto:] Thank you.
[Berman:] Perspective now from someone who dealt with North Korea and Kim Jong-un's father as defense secretary during the Clinton administration, William Cohen, former Republican senator from the state of Maine and currently CEO of the global consulting firm bearing his name, the Cohen Group. Mr. Secretary, thank you for being with us. When you hear the commander of U.S. forces in the Korean peninsula say that self-restraint is all that is preventing war with the North, to a lot of people watching tonight, that sounds pretty terrifying. How long do you believe that this self-restraint can or should last?
[William Cohen, Former Defesen Secretary:] Well, it's been lasting for some time now. The North has been engaged in provocative action for years, has been building its nuclear capability and missile technology, is engaged in attacking South Korean boats, killing a number of sailors, et cetera. So, this has been going on a long time. And the South has exercised, as has the United States, great restraint, because of the fact that there are some 800,000 troops on the border of South Korea that could from the DMZ, at least that could rain havoc on Seoul and other places. So, nothing has changed except it's gotten worse. And it's gotten worse because his allies, the North Korean allies, China and Russia, have been helping his economy grow. We used to say you can't have guns and butter. Well, he's had guns, but he's also had butter, furnished by the Russians and the Chinese and others. And so, the reaction is going to be on the part of the United States, to go after those countries who are, in fact, supporting the North Korean regime, saying if you do business with them, you can't do business with us. That raises the issue of China itself. Now, we're not going to get into a trade war with China, but we are and should take a number of sanction steps against those companies, and those banks who have been, in fact, moving money through in order to help the North Korea have the butter as well as the guns.
[Berman:] You said this has been going on for some time. But everyone we've spoken with has said this time it's worse, the fact that it's an ICBM, that it's a device that now in theory soon could reach Alaska, changes the calculus here. So, you know, at what point do you have to go beyond the diplomatic scolding? At what point or how can you force China to do what you're saying needs to be done?
[Cohen:] I'm not sure you can force them. We still have two very important thing we have deterrence and we have defense. When we talk about beefing up our capability, I think we can do more in South Korea and Japan. For example, the South Korean president was just here, I spoke with him. He has had some apprehensions about the deployment of THAAD, because he wasn't aware of the implications. I would see this as an opportunity for him to say we're going forward with a full-scale THAAD. I think the same should be said and encourage Japan to do the same, not only to employ Aegis land-based systems in Japan, but I'd even start talking about Japan having a cruise missile capability. So I think we can do things on a defensive basis that will make life much tougher for the North Koreans if we, in fact, really imposed the sanctions that need to be imposed and say to the North Korean regime, if we're going to negotiate, we're going to negotiate on a basis which you don't gain, as you have been in the past.
[Berman:] Such so our viewers all know, THAAD is a missile defense system that has been placed in South Korea that the current South Korean leader has actually had some opposition to because they felt it might be too provocative to the North Koreans. It's there, but the question is how long will it stay? Maybe they will enhance it even more. You know, I was thinking today how remarkable it was, while you were secretary of defense, your counterpart in the State Department, Madeleine Albright went to North Korea. It seems like a generation I mean, it was a generation ago, but it seems like, you know, a world ago. We're looking at this video right now. Should negotiations, should the idea of direct talks with North Korea at this point be on the table, and if so, in what way?
[Cohen:] At some point, there can be direct talks, but not at this point because what you've seen is the North Koreans have simply engaged in extortion after extortion and now at a much higher level. They would say, let's just stop things the way they are. So, then, they can sit down and start talking some more so they continue their testing and research and development, and then we're at a much more difficult place. So, I met with the North Koreans, as well. I think there is an opportunity to make a deal at some point. But we're not ready yet, because they're not ready, and the Chinese and Russians have to be a part of it, and they've been too willing to allow the regime to continue to enjoy the benefits of that commercial relationship.
[Berman:] U.S. says it won't talk unless North Korea gets rid of its nuke. North Korea says it will never get rid of its nukes and won't talk unless the U.S. stops doing military exercise in the peninsula, which the U.S. won't do. It doesn't seem like there's a starting point.
[Cohen:] Well, there is. The notion that we should give up our exercises with the South Koreans, well, that means, if you don't exercise, you don't train and you become less capable. And over time, that capability erodes. And so, therefore, when the time comes to negotiate with the North Koreans, you're at a great disadvantage in terms of capability. So, there is a way to negotiate this. It has to be done from a position of strength and I think we have to talk in terms of even talking about regime change in North Korea, because we haven't been doing that. [20:25:001] And I think if this regime continues on the path it's going, we should at least start talking about it, if not considering
[Berman:] How do you do that? How do you change the regime?
[Cohen:] You change from within. You start, again, crushing the economy. We haven't done, but I think we can do more to make it much more painful for the North Koreans to continue to do what they're doing and enjoy an increased quality of life. The South Korea's president said, the economy of North Korea has increased. It's been improving. Why is it improving with all these sanctions? Because other countries have been evading it, helping them to continue their guns policy, and also helping to feed and fuel them. That has to stop if we have any hope of ever coming to a negotiated settlement.
[Berman:] Secretary Cohen, fascinating discussion. Your perspective really from the inside over the last several decades, thanks so, so much.
[Cohen:] Thank you.
[Berman:] President Trump's first face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin just days away. Forget the fact that he said he'd already met with him during the campaign. What is on the agenda or lack thereof and whether the small matter of Russians meddling in the U.S. election will come up. That's next.