[Cuomo:] All righty. The alchemy of politics is all around us. The GOP needs just six seats today to gain control of the Senate. We're going to take a closer look now at some of the tight races. We'll call them the big six. You got your old paper ready? Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. You also have Colorado and Iowa into the mix. They're bubbling up a little bit. All the states that the GOP is hoping to flip into their column, or at least expect to. Let's bring in John Avlon, CNN political analyst, editor in chief of the "Daily Beast"; Margaret Hoover, CNN political commentator and Republican consultant; Errol Louis, CNN political commentator and political news anchor at New York 1 News and Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and editor editorial director for the "National Journal." That was the hard part. So let's take a look at these states. Let's just let's take one step back. People getting ready to go to the polls. Three's all this urgency and expectation. Ron Brownstein, the media often accused of hyping elections just so people watch them. I don't remember this many horse races, even with the big shift in 2010. The unknowns.
[Ron Brownstein, Cnn Senior Political Analyst:] Yes.
[Cuomo:] Why?
[Brownstein:] A lot of close races, look, because you have a you have a public that is dissatisfied, really, with what's happening in the country and not really enthusiastic about either political party. President Obama has very low approval rating. The Republican Congress has an even lower approval rating. Two-thirds of the country say we're on the wrong track. You don't really have an overwhelming tilt toward one side or the other in that sense. But you have a lot of close races that are leaning Republican, and that put them in a very good position to win control of the Senate.
[Cuomo:] Errol, all about turnout. You know that very well. Early voting seems unusually robust. Does that mean that I've been wrong in anticipating unusually low turnout?
[Errol Louis, Cnn Political Commentator:] Well, no. I think you can get early voting and also get low turnout. I mean, what it means is that the motivated voters and they seem to be on the Republican side in many of these states are getting out. They're locking up their vote. They're going to have a robust turnout operation. But in the end, because this Congress is so unpopular, because they've been so unproductive, the 112th Congress, the 113th Congress, people are really looking for a change, but they're very disillusioned. And in many cases, they're not going to come in. Another factor to keep in mind is that, because of gerrymandering, because you have a lot of safe seats, you have many, many incumbents who don't really have a race.
[Cuomo:] That Gerry, when he was doing the the document with Madison, do you think he knew that his name would get dragged around like this? So Margaret, you know, does this come down simply to for all the intrigue of why, why, why, why. These are states, most of these key states, these six states, that Romney won. These are purple. You should win them.
[Margaret Hoover, Cnn Political Commentator:] You're right, this is the good luck of the map. And by the way, the Democrats have the good luck of the map in two years. So Republicans could very well...
[Cuomo:] Let's stick to now, Margaret. Let's stick to now.
[Hoover:] I know. Heaven forbid we go to 2016. But I'm sticking on the Senate 2016. I mean, this could all flip in two years. This is really luck of the map. Republicans need to all win these seats, and it's I mean, there are more problems with the Republican Party if we don't. Truly. But I think we're going to, so it's OK.
[Cuomo:] Where are the Democrats' heads, John, in terms of saying, "No, we don't think it's going to happen"?
[John Avlon, Cnn Political Analyst:] Look, I think a lot of Democrats are in denial and, obviously, it's political malpractice to say publicly, "Oh, I think we're going to lose the Senate tonight."
[Cuomo:] Because it's honest?
[Avlon:] Not just because it's honest, but sometimes I think we all get caught up in the polls and say, "Well, this is a done deal. Everybody knows the Republicans are going to win." And it really does matter who turns out today. And yes, early voting is going to be disproportionately older, maybe whiter. But do young voters turn out? Do minority voters turn out? That's a large part of the GOTV operation in states like Colorado that could provide the difference. But you don't want you know, ultimately, the people are empowered today. They get to make the choice. And we spend so much time fixating on polls and acting like it's a done deal, we do them a disservice.
[Brownstein:] Chris, can I go back to Margaret's point from a minute ago? If the Republicans win the Senate tonight, neither party will have held the Senate for more than eight consecutive years since 1980. That is the longest period of that kind of instability, really, since the 19th Century.
[Cuomo:] Is that instability?
[Brownstein:] Yes. Neither side has been able to sustain the kind of majorities we've seen in the past, enduring majorities, much less unified control of the White House, the House and the Senate.
[Cuomo:] Is that bad or is that good, though?
[Brownstein:] It's a sign of the times that neither side can really establish a lasting advantage. And what you've got is an electorate that is moving back and forth between the parties and has not really seen either of them, I think, produce outcomes in the last several decades that would cement lasting allegiance.
[Avlon:] And that's in large part because we've got market failure in our politics, right? I mean, the parties are more polarized than ever before. More people are independent and in the center. And they keep vacillating between both. But you've got the least productive, least popular Congress in American history. And it looks like in this cycle, Republicans are going to get rewarded by taking over the Senate. But if most of the populist anger is against dysfunction in Washington, will this only compound it further? And that's one of the real questions. Do Republicans want to show they can govern for the next two years, or are they going to kind of revert to their grandstanding and alienating even more folks?
[Cuomo:] You know what's one of the nice things? Obviously, I grew up in New York politics here, watching the great Errol Louis take us through all these things. You know, for all we think we know, it comes down to this day. And let me tell you, everybody, no matter how big their mouth is in these campaigns, they're nervous because they're waiting on you. There will be surprises, I guarantee it. It is always that way. We'll follow it as we get more information from the polls. For now, take a breather. Alisyn, over to you.
[Camerota:] All right, Chris. With election day finally here, which early signs can we watch for as voters begin to roll in? CNN's John King will tell us what to look for, "Inside Politics." And, tragedy averted. Police in Baltimore foil a possible school shooting. The surprising details of how they discovered what a teenager allegedly had planned, that's ahead.