[Hala Gorani, Cnn Anchor:] Hello, everyone. Welcome to a very special edition of the program, THE WORLD RIGHT NOW. We are live from The Hague in the Netherlands. It is 9:00 p.m. local time. I am Hala Gorani. Polling stations will begin to close. Voting is all but over and ballots are being counted in the crucial elections which the world is watching. We are moments from the first exit poll. We'll bring you that as soon as we have it. This is no ordinary vote, of course. The outcome could reshape the political landscape not just here in the Netherlands, but potentially the European Union. It is the first big electoral test since the election of Donald Trump in the United States. The prime minister here has a lot at stake. You see him on the left voting earlier today. He is seeking re-election. He and his party want to form the next coalition government once again. But riding a wave of populism is sweeping across western democracies as the far right candidate, Geert Wilders and his party. He's anti-immigration, anti-Muslim and anti-E.U. All right, I understand we have our first exit poll results. VVD, the party of the incumbent Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, is coming out on top. I will wait for the exact ranking of the parties according to the Broadcaster NOS. These are results that have not been certified by our polling methodology but that are being broadcast on the national broadcasting network here in Holland. I will ask my producer to hand me the figures to see exactly where we are in the ranking as far as the party of the prime minister. It appears the party of the prime minister, VVD, of Mark Rutte, according to ONS, the national broadcaster and their exit polling methodology has come out first and the party of Geert Wilders, the fire brand politician, anti-immigration, anti-E.U., anti-Islam candidate has come in second. I'm seeing pretty good results for D66, the Green Party as well. VVD clearly on top according to some of the figures I'm seeing here. All right, Dutch politics is splintered. There are 28 parties running in this election. As we have been telling people most are watching just two. It's the prime minister's Freedom and Democracy Party, which has come out on top according to the exit polling, and Geert Wilders' PVV Party, which so far is second. We have also the Christian Democrats performing pretty well. Actually almost on par with Geert Wilders's party with the same number of projected seats, and again the Green Party doing pretty well as well. Both leaders, by the way, as I mentioned, the prime minister and Geert Wilders cast their ballots today. Before we get to a more precise breakdown in what appears to be a significant victory for the incumbent prime minister, here's what the two main candidates told voters today. Listen.
[Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister:] The fact that they are enlarging problems instead of solving them, having a political leader who wants to take away the Koran from Muslims in the Netherlands who wants to close our mosques, and who is basically talking about not taking the necessary positions to take the country forward. Populism, there is nothing wrong with it. The populism is not addressing the real issues of the people. Only making them bigger instead of solving them.
[Geert Wilders, People's Party For Freedom:] Whatever the outcome of the election today, the genie will not go back in the bottle and this revolution will take place whether today or tomorrow.
[Gorani:] Well, there you heard from the two main candidates. We have an exit poll done for the Dutch national broadcaster, NOS. It's just come out. Here it is in graphic form. It projects that the Freedom and Democracy Party is first. This is the party of the incumbent Prime Minister, Mark Rutte. The Labour Party, second. The Labour Party was projected to perform not as well as it did last time. Geert Wilders, his party coming in third according to the exit poll from the national broadcaster, NOS. As with any exit poll it may not be precise enough to predict the final outcome. It was not commissioned by CNN. Right now we don't have necessarily a clear leader but this is the nature of Dutch politics, of course. It is a very fractured political landscape. Atika Shubert joins me now from the headquarters of Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Party for Freedom and Democracy known as VVD here in The Hague. OK, according to the very initial results, Atika, is there some sense of relief at the party headquarters of the current prime minister?
[Atika Shubert, Cnn Senior International Correspondent:] Absolutely. As soon as the first these are again preliminary exit poll results, but as soon as they came out there was a cheer from VVD supporter, who were gathered here tonight. This is clearly shows they seemed to be ahead at this point. But again, it is preliminary and from the Dutch broadcaster so we do have to wait and see some of those extra numbers. What is surprising from these numbers is that sort of three-way tie between Geert Wilders far right party, the Christian Democrats Party and D-66, a much more left party. So it does seem to be a very broad base spread out across a number of parties here. But the winner so far at least in this preliminary round here appears to be VVD breaking ahead. Again, there are still, in fact, some polls that may be open in The Hague and Rotterdam. These numbers could change but for the moment, VVD is looking strong, the party of the incumbent prime minister.
[Gorani:] All right. As you speak to party officials and they tell you essentially, I'm sure based on the preliminary results there is a sense of satisfaction, to what do they attribute this to, Atika?
[Shubert:] I think there is a number of different things that his supporters and his assistants have been talking to. One, they have been hammering home a few messages the economy. The economy has grown in the last year by 2.1 percent after an austerity program he put into place. It looks like we are having a light function here in the press area. In addition to that, they made a push at the end particularly with the Turkish diplomatic crisis saying the prime minister came out very strong, took a tough line with Turkey and showed he could be tough but fair on immigrant communities here including the Turkish community. That really may have boosted his odds at the ballot box. A lot of voters I spoke to said, you know, that was the event that made up their mind, the game changer because he acted like the prime minister they wanted him to be. We'll have to wait and see what the big issues were, you know, after this night is over and they combed through all the data. I think it's found to be a number of factors, but those are the ones that when we spoke to voters, impressed them the most.
[Gorani:] Atika Shubert, thanks very much. There at the party headquarters of the party of the prime minister. I'm joined now by Sarah de Lange, a professor from the political science department at the University of Amsterdam. Thanks for being with us. All right, first of all, just to update our viewers, we have in the first place quite firmly in first place the party of the prime minister. Then we have a tie for second place according to the exit polls. PVV, the party of Wilders, the Christian Democrats, and then we have D66, the centrist party there as well. We have a competition lower down the line. What does that tell us about this?
[Sarah De Lange, Department Of Political Science, University Of Amsterdam:] Well, the results are completely in line with the polls that we have seen in the past days, which have shown that there is massive fragmentation in the Netherlands and that all the parties have limited support. It is very clear who is the leader after these elections, it is Prime Minister Rutte. But who he will govern with remains uncertain.
[Gorani:] He is the leader. There was a possibility according to earlier polling that he may not come first, but it appears as though he came in first with quite a margin as well.
[Lange:] Yes, we have seen in the past weeks that Geert Wilders, his main rival, was sliding in the polls for a variety of reasons. In addition to that we had an incident this weekend where Prime Minister Rutte really reacted firmly towards Turkey interfering in Dutch democracy which might have given him the edge in elections today.
[Gorani:] Now the Labour Party, though, didn't do well at all, projected to having essentially maybe possibly even a third of the seats of the prime minister's party. What's going on there?
[Lange:] Well, the Labour Party is doing even worse than predicted in the exit polls. Its leader has not been particularly visible in the campaign. Its supporters have been dissatisfied with the way in which the Labour Party has governed with the liberals. Making too many compromises especially on social policies.
[Gorani:] What do you make of Wilders, though, coming in basically tied for second place? I mean, this isn't a stellar performance he could have registered, is it?
[Lange:] No, we have seen in the past couple of elections that support for Wilders is very high in the polls. It doesn't materialize on Election Day. One reason is during a government's term the voters like to stress their dissatisfaction by supporting an outsider. Once Election Day is there strategic consideration about the government composition also come into play and negatively affect his support.
[Gorani:] Why is that the case here? Because in other countries when you have more extreme parties you may see less support in the polling. People don't necessarily admit to wanting to vote for a particular candidate. When Election Day comes they will slip it in the ballot box and vote for their preferred candidate of the party. Why is it the reverse in the Netherlands?
[Lange:] In the Netherlands, it's become very easy to express your support for a populist party since the murder of [inaudible] in 2002. Very few people feel uncomfortable expressing their support in, for example, the polls.
[Gorani:] OK, that's interesting. So now the big question now, of course, is going to be if these exit poll numbers hold it seems as though the prime minister, the incumbent, is in a pretty comfortable position?
[Lange:] Yes. Historically the exit polls have been very accurate in Netherlands, only being off by 1.5 percent per party. I think that Prime Minister Rutte can be declared the winner of these elections.
[Gorani:] All right, and now if he is Wilders won't be part of any government, right? Because every party has said pretty much we are not going to do business with Wilders.
[Lange:] Wilders is not in the running to be part of the coalition. First of all, he is not the leader so he won't take the lead in the negotiations. There is no reason to include him at the moment because an alternative coalition can be formed with D66, the Christian Democrats and the Green Party if necessary.
[Gorani:] Do you think last question we are attracting a bit of attention which is good because people have been very passionate about this election. Turnout was much higher this time than in 2012. The big interest worldwide in this has been we saw Donald Trump elected. We saw Brexit happen. The Netherlands were the first kind of test of 2017. Were we going to see the populist wave continue here or will it stop here? Has it stopped here?
[Lange:] I don't think it has stopped. It's very important to realize that the dynamics of European politics with coalition governments and multi- party systems are very different from that in the U.S. or even in the U.K., which is a majoritarian system.
[Gorani:] But still, though, the fact that we didn't see the potential number we could have seen for Wilders, does that tell us anything at all in terms of future contests?
[Lange:] I don't think so. The dynamics of the French elections which are up next are different because these are presidential elections. I think we'll see Marine La Pen in the second round of the French elections even though Wilders has not performed as effective.
[Gorani:] Sarah de Lange of the University of Amsterdam, thanks very much. Very initial numbers came in. Took us a little bit of time to shake them out, but it looks as though according to the exit polls as we told our viewers the party of the incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte has performed better than expected and it's first in the polls.
[Lange:] Yes, exactly.
[Gorani:] Biggest party, thanks so much. This election wasn't just about two parties. We are in the Netherlands, after all. Dozens were on the ballot. One candidate who caused a stir was the young leader of the Green Party. I will look at his performance as well. How did the Green Party do? All right. We are looking at half the support of the VVD of the party of the prime minister. So not bad at all. He's a young 30-year-old. I spoke to him earlier today before the polls closed and asked if he thought his party was disrupting Dutch politics. Listen.
[Jesse Klaver, Dutch Green Party Leader:] We tried to disrupt Dutch politics in a positive way. [Inaudible] disrupting politics for many years but it is based on fear and hate. We have a message of hope, optimism and change. We tried to build a campaign that's more than a campaign, more like a movement. We have tried to attract a lot of young people to get involved in democracy and in politics.
[Gorani:] Geert Wilders. You are of Moroccan extraction through your father, right, and Indonesian and Dutch through your mother. So you are the very incarnation of an immigrant success story technically speaking. Even though you are second generation.
[Klaver:] Yes.
[Gorani:] How do you think that helps or hurts you in Dutch politics?
[Klaver:] It doesn't hurt me. I think it will help me because I understand what Dutch society is like. We are very multicultural. We have different cultures living here together. We have a very diverse background. I think I know what's happening in Dutch society. I think that's important for the leader of the country. When I talk to the voters, it's not only the voters who will vote for the Greens, but also with voters who are voting for Geert Wilders or other right wing parties. When you start the conversation it will begin with immigration, Islam, refugees. Within two, three minutes the conversation will turn, and it's about housing, income, the health care bills.
[Gorani:] Is it not also about identity? Many Dutch people have said this is about, this election is about deciding who we are as Dutch citizens. What's the answer to that?
[Klaver:] We are tolerant and a free country. I believe that we are an emphatic society and the way that conservatives like [inaudible] is a populist who try to define the country by Santa Clause or Christmas, eastern x or the national anthem, that's not who we are. Who we are is based on the values this country is built on for many decades.
[Gorani:] All right. Another party on the list today was Nida Progressive Muslim Party based in Rotterdam. Now these are some of the smaller parties that are hoping to make it on the national stage just as we are learning from the exit polls that the big established party of the prime minister has come out on top in this election. Now I spoke to their founder, Nourdin El Ouali, about Geert Wilders and his anti-immigrant message.
[Nourdin El Ouali, Founder, Dutch Nida Party:] He doesn't bring any solutions. He really problem he's good. He is the champion in telling people what the problem is. He has a simple recipe. The problem is the other. It's the foreigner, the migrant, the Muslim. That's his only policy, but he doesn't bring solutions.
[Gorani:] His solution is ban Koran, close the country to Muslim immigration. He's saying what his solution is.
[El Ouali:] Well, that's not a solution because we have
[Gorani:] Close mosques as well.
[El Ouali:] Yes, true. He has this kind of ideas, which are dangerous ideas because we have a constitution in this country that guarantees equal rights and all the freedoms, just like in your country, freedom of religion and so on and so forth. So his ideas are not democratic ideas but really extreme ideas that don't fit in an open democratic liberal society.
[Gorani:] What is this election about? It is a lot about identity, right? It's a lot about what it means to be Dutch. What does it mean to be Dutch?
[El Ouali:] True.
[Gorani:] Today.
[El Ouali:] But if you ask me what is this election about? I would say it's about ecology. It is about poverty. It's about work and things like that, and health care. Yes. It's true. It's about mainly about Dutch identity. I think it's an idea of people feel that our values are under pressure, and I agree with that
[Gorani:] What do you agree with?
[El Ouali:] Well, that our values are under pressure. The story is that they are under pressure because of this new groups, migrants, Muslims, so forth and so on. But the real real challenge
[Gorani:] I have to stop you there because what I find interesting is you say you do agree with the notion that some of the traditional Dutch values are under pressure because, what, of recent waves of migration?
[El Ouali:] No. My point of view is a different one. That's the point of view of Wilders and also our prime minister.
[Gorani:] I was a little puzzled when you said that.
[El Ouali:] Our values, our Dutch values are reflected in our constitution. You said what kind of solutions this politician wants. They are under pressure and the threat is even bigger. The threat isn't coming from outside. It is in our parliament.
[Gorani:] I see.
[El Ouali:] So this kind of idea has really put the pressure on our values and people like me opposed to that because we say we are Dutch citizens. Yes, we have a migration, but right, diversity isn't a problem. It's enriching us.
[Gorani:] All right. One point of view there. He's a city counselor in Rotterdam. And by the way, in Rotterdam, the lines there were long in polling stations. We understand according to the national broadcaster that some of the polling stations are staying open later, past 9:00 p.m. local in order to allow all the people who are already in line to cast their ballots. But breaking news this hour. We want to bring you exit poll numbers done for the Dutch national broadcaster, NOS. They have just come out. Here they are. They project that the Freedom and Democracy Party is first, the party of the current prime minister. The Geert Wilders party is in a three-way tie with the Christian Democrats and you see as well the D66 party. So first for the prime minister incumbent, Mark Rutte. Then you have a three-way tie between the parties of Geert Wilders, the Christian Democrats, the CDA, and the party D66. Now, remember of course, this is an exit poll. It is not as precise as the final results will be. I will stress again this was not commissioned by CNN. It is being broadcast by NOS, the national state broadcaster in the Netherlands. Let's bring in a political cartoonist gauging the exit poll numbers because we always like seeing the lighter side of things.
[Tjeerd Royaards, Political Cartoonist:] Sure.
[Gorani:] So let's talk about your work. You are going to have a lot to draw and a lot to think about.
[Royaards:] It's a crazy world right now. Not only in the Netherlands, but with populism on the rise in Europe and in America as well. That's been a lot on my mind and on the mind of a lot of cartoonists I think.
[Gorani:] What do you make of the result? Because it looks according to this exit poll as though the incumbent prime minister though he's done worse than last election came out first.
[Royaards:] Yes. So two things I noticed is that one of my biggest fears and a lot of progressives with me was that the PVV of Geert Wilders would become biggest which he hasn't and the progressive greens have actually risen a lot. So it's interesting to see the three-way tie for the second largest party.
[Gorani:] There is some fresh blood in this election, right. You mentioned the Greens, Jesse Klaver. He's 30 years old. He's called the Justin Trudeau of Dutch politics. There is a passing resemblance, by the way.
[Royaards:] Yes.
[Gorani:] Have you ever drawn him?
[Royaards:] No, not yet.
[Gorani:] Maybe you should start today.
[Royaards:] Yes.
[Gorani:] So what you're going to do so we explain to the viewers is you draw on an iPad, right?
[Royaards:] Yes.
[Gorani:] You're going to basically I don't know if we can get a shot of this or not. You're going to draw your take on the results of this election and we'll show that later in the program. You will present it to us and we'll talk about it and discuss. OK, thanks so much. We'll see you later in the program. Get to work. Still to come this evening, don't drag the big microphone with you. We'll continue our coverage of the Dutch election. A member of the Liberal Party Democrats, the D66 Party is my guest. Stay tuned for that. We'll have more on breaking news from the Netherlands. We'll be right back.