[Poppy Harlow, Cnn Anchor:] It is 6:00 here in New York, 3:00 p.m. out in Las Vegas. I'm Poppy Harlow. Thank you so much for being with us. We begin with that little clock you see in the corner of your screen. The last Republican presidential debate of the year is less than 48 hours away and will air right here on CNN. We now know what the lineup will be for Tuesday's showdown at the Venetian on the Las Vegas strip. Nine candidates making the main stage with Donald Trump center stage. He is, of course, the front- runner. He will be flanked by his newest, closest rival Ted Cruz and also to his other side, Dr. Ben Carson. Two major polls show that Cruz is mounting a major challenge to Trump in the early, critical state of Iowa, where Cruz now leads, beating Trump 31 percent to 21 percent in a "Des Moines RegisterBloomberg politics poll. Nationwide, Trump is still on top but Cruz is biting at his heels. Trump at 27 percent"Wall Street Journal" poll. We have the best political team in television covering the story for you live from Las Vegas. That is where we find my friend and colleague, John Berman. Hi, Berman.
[John Berman, Cnn Anchor:] Hi, Poppy. So much to talk about out here. As you said, the last debate, the last Republican debate of 2015, with the race changing so much right in front of our very eyes. Ted Cruz vaulting up into first place in Iowa. You talk about the main stage debate. There was also a debate that begins at 6:00 on Tuesday night. Some people call it the undercard. George Pataki, Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and the current senator from South Carolina who cares a lot and talks a lot about national security, Lindsey Graham. That begins at 6:00 p.m. I want to discuss both debates with our CNN political team here, Paul Begala, S.E. Cupp, Michael Smerconish. S.E., I want to start with you here with the newest dynamic in the debate which is the CruzTrump dynamic. Cruz has moved to the center stage right next to Donald Trump. They have been friends and friendly up until this point. What does Ted Cruz need to do on Tuesday?
[S.e. Cupp, Cnn Political Commentator:] I don't think they're actual friends when it comes to Donald, right? I mean, you may not be an enemy today. I don't know that that means that your friends. I think Ted Cruz is starting to get a hint of what's it like to go after Donald Trump and threaten Donald Trump, at least in Iowa where he's up in the polls. But Ted Cruz needs to have a big night. If we're going to be talking about one thing for the next few days, who has the most to lose, who has the most to gain. I think that's very clearly Ted Cruz. He's had this strategy that he's been very open about, suggesting he's going to bear hug Trump and Carson and hope that when they collapse, those voters go to Ted Cruz. That's worked with Carson's voters to a certain extent. It hasn't worked with Trump yet because Trump hasn't collapsed.
[Berman:] What about Donald Trump? How does he deal with the new person next to him?
[Michael Smerconish, Cnn Political Commentator:] I think the pressure is on. It's interesting, John, because you just showed those two surveys, one that shows Ted Cruz ahead in Iowa and other that shows Donald Trump ahead nationally. I bet there might be consensus among the four of us, which would you rather be? I think you'd rather be up in Iowa so that you could win Iowa. The cards then get shuffled. And if Donald Trump doesn't win Iowa after having led 100 days thus far, I think he's the one that's in a far more precarious position.
[Berman:] I vote option C, I want to be ahead of both. But you didn't ask me that. I want to read a Twitter exchange that's been going on the last several minutes, because it's truly fascinating and it's between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is the story that came out this week that he was meeting with some donors behind closed doors and questioned whether Donald Trump was fit to be commander in chief.
[Paul Begala, Cnn Political Commentator:] Well, just his judgment. It wasn't very
[Berman:] It was just a judgment, right.
[Begala:] By my standards.
[Berman:] Donald Trump tweets this out just now, a few minutes ago. It says, "I was disappointed Ted Cruz would speak behind my back, get caught, and then deny it. Well, welcome to the wonderful world of politics." So, we see Donald Trump taking on Ted Cruz a little bit there. Now, Ted Cruz has responded. I need to call this up right now because I have to do it justice. He writes, "In honor of my friend, real Donald Trump and good-hearted maniacs everywhere," and then he links to a YouTube video of "Maniac" from "Flashdance". Now, I think for rights reasons we can't actually play this for you. I wish we could. Perhaps we could sing it for you. I think Ted Cruz just called Donald Trump a maniac.
[Begala:] Well, Mr. Trump used that phrase about Senator Cruz the other day. He said Cruz goes on the Senate floor like a maniac
[Berman:] OK.
[Begala:] and calls people liars and he won't be able to get anything done. Trump is a phenomenal politician, right, a great attacker. But we're seeing Ted Cruz here, a great counterpuncher. He was a champion debater at some little college called Princeton, right? He was an outstanding law student at Harvard Law. He's they don't get any smarter than Ted Cruz. And Trump is going to have his hands full with this. Cruz is now going to watch in the debates, if Trump repeats this attack, oh, you can't get along with your colleagues and make deals and get things done, Cruz is going to embrace that. He's going to say, well, I consider that a badge of honor that the Washington establishment, the corrupt Senate leadership on both parties doesn't like me. I mean, he will jujitsu Donald very effectively.
[Cupp:] Yes, and tonally, you can tell, Ted Cruz is trying to make light of this, you know, the back and forth but he doesn't want
[Berman:] I hope you're not calling "Flashdance" a joke.
[Cupp:] I know some
[Begala:] I don't have rights but it's playing in my head right now. I have to go to confession. It's a Sunday, I can't have
[Cupp:] He's going to have to get tough. I mean, Donald Trump just name checked Ted Cruz out of nowhere as an evangelical from Cuba, where apparently evangelicals don't exist. Meanwhile, there's over a million evangelicals in Cuba. It's tripled since the 1980s. But it doesn't matter. Facts don't matter. But he's trying now to take on Ted Cruz in Iowa where he is doing well among evangelicals and he's trying to do it by saying this guy is a scary foreigner, essentially. And it's going to be interesting to see whether Ted Cruz voters, whether evangelicals like that Trump rhetoric or kind of break finally and say, no, no, Cruz is our guy.
[Smerconish:] Can I also add that I think that there are many on that stage Tuesday night who could rightfully question Ted Cruz as to whether he has the temperament to get along with colleagues and get things done. I don't think Donald Trump is the one who can rightfully lay claim to that mantra.
[Berman:] This morning, Donald Trump said, "I have the temperament to be president and Ted Cruz doesn't. Ted Cruz can't get along with anyone. I can." That's Donald Trump
[Smerconish:] The name-calling that he's engaged in in the last 100 days that he should therefore assert he could go on and work with both sides. I mean, who is not laughing when they hear that?
[Berman:] It is interesting, Michael, it's one thing having the "Flashdance" exchange over Twitter right now. But when you're standing next to someone on stage with the cameras on, it's a different dynamic. We saw, you know, Scott Walker who was next to Donald Trump that first debate withered.
[Smerconish:] Right.
[Berman:] You know, we've seen Jeb Bush withered in that moment. There's going to be interesting
[Smerconish:] I don't think Ted Cruz will wither. I do believe he'll continue to try and play nice with Donald Trump. It's also amusing to me Trump still maintains he's a counterpuncher and that he never throws the first blow. I think he threw the first blow with regards to Ted Cruz as soon as that Monmouth University survey came out which showed Cruz leading Trump.
[Berman:] All right. Michael Smerconish, S.E. Cupp, Paul Begala, and the men and women of "Flashdance", we're going to have much more live coverage from Las Vegas a little later this hour. But for now, let's go back to Poppy Harlow in New York Poppy.
[Harlow:] All right, guys, thank you very much. We'll be back to John in a moment. What you do not want to miss, the Republican debate, it is just two days away, Tuesday night, in Las Vegas. It is the last GOP debate of the year and it is only right here on CNN. Next up, two significant developments in San Bernardino, California, in the ongoing terror investigation there. We have new information about the FBI's search of that lake near the site of the terror attack. Also, we are learning more about the disturbing red flags that were missed when it comes to the female shooter. Stay with us.