[Christiane Amanpour, Cnn:] Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program. I'm Christiane Amanpour. Tonight, is Iraq imploding? Violence and the casualties there are the worst in five years. Remember Fallujah, Ramadi, the Anbar province? That's where the bloodiest fighting took place after the 2003 U.S. war in Iraq. And the region is at risk of being taken over again by a major surge from Al Qaeda. Latest scenes from Baghdad show government forces getting ready to move into Anbar province to try to put down the insurgency, which is spreading like wildfire there. Fallujah has already fallen and Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is calling on residents to drive the terrorists out. But the militants' rise is only part of this unfolding disaster, which has been heavily compounded by a disenfranchised Sunni population that feels sidelined by Maliki's Shiite-led government. Hundreds if not thousands have already fled the violence; and it is all a far cry from seven years ago when a U.S. troop surge quelled the worst of the country's civil war. That was before President Obama withdrew all U.S. forces two years ago. And since then, the violence has simply surged to record heights. In the face of Al Qaeda's worrying reemergence, Secretary of State John Kerry now says that the United States will try to help but it won't be sending any troops into Iraq. So will civil war finally rip the country apart? Joining me now from Beirut is Mowaffak al-Rubaie, who is a close ally of Prime Minister Maliki and who was Iraq's national security adviser for five years after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Welcome to the program, Mr. Rubaie, and thank you so much for joining me. You have said that this is a critical moment in your country's history. How bad is it?
[Mowaffak Al-rubaie, Former Iraqi National Security Adviser:] Well, what I meant by critical moment is that this is the biggest fight the Iraqi security forces are going to take on their own without the Americans around. So it is a big challenge; but I'm pretty sure and there is no shadow of doubt in my mind that Iraqi security forces will prevail. But most important is the Western media. Most of the Western media has got this wrong. They depict it as a Shia versus Sunnis or Shia dominated government, killing the Sunni communities. This is totally wrong. This is a fight between Iraq and Al Qaeda terrorists. This is a fight between our constitutionally elected government in Baghdad and the outlaws, the terrorists of Al Qaeda in the desert.
[Amanpour:] OK. Well, let's take both of those issues. First and foremost, what makes you so sure that the Iraqi forces will actually be able to retake Fallujah and quell the Al Qaeda part of the insurgency, elsewhere in the Anbar province? Because so far they're not doing too well. And in fact, in some areas, the Sunni tribespeople are also, you know, joining up with some of the insurgents.
[Al-rubaie:] The reason is multifactorial because, number one is we are much more suited for this fight; number two, the size and the training of the Iraqi security forces, we have the best counterterrorist forces in the region. Number three is the tribal, local tribal tribesmen are siding with the government forces. And number four is the local government of al-Anbar is also siding with the Iraqi security forces. So the local population as well. And also the government of Iraq has a whole host of package for number one is to evacuate Fallujah; number is to go for security measures and number three is the humanitarian aid and number four is the injection of cash in the local economy to create more jobs. And number five is the whole measures of political reconciliation in the region to include the Sunni community and to include the Sunni Arab leaders in the further government of Baghdad.
[Amanpour:] Mr. Rubaie, this does smack of desperation and of last-ditch measures. You will presumably admit that, in fact, the Maliki government has alienated the Sunni population to a large degree. That is not even beyond a shadow of a doubt.
[Al-rubaie:] I beg to differ here because I don't think we should argue what Mr. Maliki has done before or what his economic policy, what is his social policy and so and so forth. I believe we have a fight; the Iraqi security forces need to win. And all Iraqis should back and or should back the Iraqi security forces, all parliamentary blocs, political parties, whether they are inside the political process, outside the political process, inside the parliament, outside the parliament, inside the government, outside the government. They should unite. They should unite behind the Iraqi security forces to get them to win this fight and then after that we will argue who was right, who was wrong. And the economic policy and the social policies and security policy and so and so forth.
[Amanpour:] You know, when we talk about Fallujah and Ramadi, I mean, it reminds all of us who were there of the bad old days of 2004, '05, '06. What is the effect and what has been the effect of the U.S. pulling out all its troops two years ago? Because as we've seen it, the violence has simply surged since then.
[Al-rubaie:] This is not going to be an easy fight in Fallujah. Because the Americans in 2004, they lost 140 of their soldiers and thousands of civilians were killed. So this is not going to be easy fight, I can tell you that for sure. But what we don't we will not need any boots on the ground and what we need, we need to improve and increase our intelligence capacity, our reconnaissance capacity, our surveillance capacity, our Hellfire capacity as well as we need probably an armed predators; we need the drones. We need the Apache to be delivered quickly. We need technological support from the United States of America. We will not ask and we will not need any of the boots on the ground.
[Amanpour:] Mowaffak al-Rubaie, thank you so much indeed for joining me. Former Iraqi national security adviser. And so, you heard what he said; what can America do now? Barack Obama said that he would extricate the country from George Bush's war, and he did, at least he extricated all U.S. troops exactly two years ago. May have been popular at home, but was it wise? Turning now to Meghan O'Sullivan, who was one of President Bush's chief Iraq advisers, and she joins me from Harvard University where she teaches. Megan, it's good to see you again. You heard what Mr. Al-Rubaie just said. What is it going to take to win back Fallujah as a start?
[Meghan O'sullivan, Former U.s. Deputy National Security Adviser For Iraq:] The most immediate thing to watch is where the tribes in Anbar, where their allegiances fall. Do they do they back the government of Nouri al- Maliki? Or do they fight alongside the Al Qaeda affiliated militants? Or do they fall somewhere in between, which would effectively be in favor of the Al Qaeda affiliated militants? This is the primary variable to watch. But beyond that, there needs to be a lot more changes in the policies of the government of Iraq in order for this threat to be neutralized. Of course, what we're seeing is really the culmination of two things. We're seeing the worsening situation in Syria spilling into Iraq. And we're seeing the product of increasingly authoritarian policies on the part of the Iraqi government that have marginalized Sunnis. All of these things are in the basket that we now see erupting in Fallujah and to a lesser extent in Ramadi.
[Amanpour:] So there have been many disturbing reports of those very same Sunni tribal leaders who joined with the United States in the so-called awakening back in 2007, which, together with the surge back then, pacified the Anbar area. And there seem to be troubling indications that they're not actually on that side anymore.
[O'sullivan:] I think this is very much at play. And as Dr. Mowaffak suggested, the Iraqi government is surging in its efforts to try to convince the Sunni tribals leaders that, in fact, he can be a credible partner for them in Baghdad and in the governance of Iraq. This is going to be a very hard sell for Prime Minister Maliki. Back in 2007 and 2008, when you had the surge and you had the awakening, there you did see that these tribes groups actually aligned themselves with the Maliki government. But since that time, there have been really now several years of disappointment. So Maliki is going to have to work a lot harder and it's also conceivable that the Al Qaeda militants have gotten smarter. One of the things that really alienated the tribes at Anbar back in 2006- 2007 was the very severe policies of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor organization. They had strict implementation of Islamic law. And this alienated a lot of the tribesmen and led them to move to work with the U.S. government and with the Iraqi forces. We'll have to see how that balance shakes out. I would hope that the tribesmen would see that as much as they dislike the Maliki government, that their fortunes under Al Qaeda militants would be even worse. And that, I think, is still a question that's outstanding.
[Amanpour:] And very briefly and finally, Meghan, do you see an end to this? Do you feel as Dr. Mowaffak said, that the Iraqi forces will defeat this resurgent Al Qaeda?
[O'sullivan:] Again, I think it goes back to where the Sunni tribesmen are going to go. But I would rather conclude on a much broader point, which is not necessarily about what happens in Fallujah over the coming days. It really has to do with what is going to happen to the government in Baghdad. Is it going to be a government that can credibility represent all Iraqis? Because if it's not, Iraq doesn't have any prospect of being stable. And certainly as long as the Syrian conflict continues, that will also be difficult.
[Amanpour:] Meghan O'Sullivan, thank you very much indeed for joining us with your perspective.
[O'sullivan:] Thank you very much.
[Amanpour:] And solutions to crises on Earth may seem even more clearly from 250 miles up in space is definitely in these days, as the Hollywood blockbuster, "Gravity," starring Sandra Bullock proved, while reminding us of the extreme dangers of space exploration. [Video Clip, "gravity"] After a break, the real thing: International Space Station commander Col. Chris Hadfield, who willingly put himself in harm's way to expand humanity's horizons. And, oh, by the way, was a great zero gravity singer, too. [Video Clip, "space Oddity," Col. Chris Hadfield] That, of course, was courtesy David Bowie; Chris Hadfield when we come back.