[Blitzer:] We're back with our "Strategy Session." New polls are putting President Obama in the lead over Mitt Romney nationally. So will this impact Romney's pick for vice presidential running mate? We're back with our CNN contributors, Republican strategist Alex Castellanos and on the phone, James Carville, our Democratic strategist. Look at these poll numbers, Alex. Let me start with you. The CNNORC poll that came out yesterday registered voters' choice for president, Obama ahead by 7, 52 percent, 45 percent for Romney. The Fox News poll, Obama ahead by 9, 49 percent Obama, 40 percent Romney. The Reuters poll, up by 7, Obama 49 percent, Romney 42 percent, registered voters. What's going on here?
[Castellanos:] Well, couple things. One is we're looking at registered voters here. When you look at likely voters underneath that, you see there's more intensity on the Republican side. So the race does get a little closer. But Obama remains a couple points ahead as he does I think in most polls. Nothing fundamentally has changed here except one thing. Mitt Romney's negative does seem to be going up. Some of the Obama attacks seem to be having an effect on it after this long, long summer we've been through. But the race is still about bigger things. The economy hasn't changed. It's still going down the toilet. We're losing jobs. The race is still basically very close.
[Blitzer:] When you say the difference between registered and likely voters, registered voters are people who have already registered. Likely voters are registered voters plus those who might still register.
[Castellanos:] No. Likely voters are those voters who are on the rolls, but when you ask them are you really sure they're going to vote in they tell you, yes, 100 percent, 9 or 10 out of a 10-point scale. So they're the ones you can count on showing up. A lot of Obama's voters last time were young voters, for example, black voters who traditionally turn out in lower rates. They may not come out this time as much. But we see a lot of intensity this time on the Republican side because they think the country's going down the tubes.
[Blitzer:] James, you buy that?
[Carville:] I buy some of it. Look, I can say this, Alex can't. Romney has run a God awful campaign. It's just been terrible. They have not been able to execute on simple things like a trip to Britain. They've been terrible in responding. They've been terrible on their tax plan. Even Robert Samuels started savaging the tax plan. They sent out the guy who wrote the most discredited economic book in our lifetime and they got to have you know, they're still within striking range. Alex is exactly right about that. But it's that campaign and that candidate doesn't have a quick change of attitude, they're going to lose.
[Blitzer:] Let me ask Alex
[Carville:] And they'll lose by more than a little bit too.
[Blitzer:] If the numbers stay like they are right now according to these polls. But does this put pressure, Alex, on Mitt Romney to go bold with his vice presidential pick?
[Castellanos:] I don't think so. You can't ask there are some things the Romney campaign needs to do. They need to say where the country's going. Obama's basically saying the president is better than the past. Don't go back. Romney, it's up to Romney to say we're not going back. We're going forward. Here's how I'd lead. Here's how I'd grow the economy. He has the convention to do that. He has debates to do that. But you can't ask the guy in the backseat, the VP, to do that job. That's asking a lot. It's the guy in the front seat, the presidential candidate to do that. One thing about James' point is if you're looking for awful campaigns, I'm not sure the president hasn't run the worst campaign we've seen even though they ran such a brilliant campaign last time. For example, he's alienated the high money people, the big donors and Wall Street, but now he's alienated small business.
[Blitzer:] But he's ahead in the polls.
[Castellanos:] But he's alienated small business I think with a turning point in the campaign with his you didn't build that comment. When you need small business and big business, there's not a lot of job makers left.
[Blitzer:] But you know what? With 8.3 percent unemployment, he's doing pretty well. You got to admit it's the economy as all of us know. If you were Romney, James, and I'm serious about this.
[Carville:] Right.
[Blitzer:] Who would you pick as your vice presidential running mate?
[Carville:] You know, first of all I think Romney and alex knows a very cautious man. I think he's probably methodical about this maybe even to fault. But I think that Romney's kind of made a decision because now a lot of the right wants him to pick Paul Ryan. If I were Romney, you know, I might try Jindal. He's a Louisiana guy.
[Blitzer:] Bobby Jindal's the governor of Louisiana.
[Carville:] Add something to the mix.
[Blitzer:] James is from Louisiana himself. If you were Romney, Alex, who would you pick?
[Castellanos:] I would agree with James. I think Jindal would be one of the guys
[Blitzer:] Really.
[Castellanos:] very top of the list. Conservatives love him. He's smart, conservatives appeal to him as well. Portman and Pawlenty are good safe choices. I wouldn't pick Paul Ryan because Mitt Romney doesn't want this campaign to be about entitlement reform. And Paul Ryan would make this campaign about that instead of jobs and growth in the economy. Paul Ryan should run for president on his own, but he doesn't need to be anybody else's
[Vp. Blitzer:] Paul Ryan's plan would change Medicare for people who are under 55 right now. I'm not sure that Mitt Romney necessarily wants to be burdened with that.
[Castellanos:] You don't want to start your campaign fall sprint on defense talking about something that isn't the main issue in the country, which is jobs and growth.
[Blitzer:] James, what should the role of Donald Trump be at the Republican convention?
[Carville:] Major. Major. I think they should devote a whole night to him.
[Castellanos:] Being generous here.
[Carville:] I'm going to go ahead and do something I've never done. I'm going to speak from one of my fellow contributors. I want Donald Trump at that convention. Alex does not want Donald Trump anywhere near that convention hall.
[Blitzer:] Let's ask him.
[Castellanos:] You know, Donald Trump making occasional fun of Donald Trump because he's such a colorful figure. But I think the Obama campaign misunderstanding his role in this campaign. He's not a rich business guy, even though he is. He's a guy who speaks truth to power. He's a populous guy. That's something no one really takes that seriously anymore But he's a guy who speaks truth about the need to change Washington and the economy. He's not a liability at all. And I think you're going to see him around the rest of the campaign.
[Blitzer:] Go ahead, James.
[Carville:] I think he ought to talk about his birthism. He's still on it. Let him get up and discuss his investigation he had and everything in Hawaii. Nothing would make me happier.
[Blitzer:] James Carville, thanks very much for coming in. Even on the telephone I think our viewers know what you look like, but that's all right. Alex Castellanos, thanks to you as well. An inflammatory claim from the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. He says his country has picked up a U.S., quote, "mercenary" who's working to destabilize his government. We're going to tell you what we know. Plus, Syria's ultimate insiders who are helping President Bashar Al-Assad stay in power.