[Judy Woodruff, Cnn Anchor:] Does Al Gore have an Elian Gonzalez problem? We'll check new poll numbers for signs of political fallout. Also ahead
[John King, Cnn Senior White House Correspondent:] A slice of suburbia time to think about anything but their disappointment at campaign 2000.
[Woodruff:] John King on Michigan voters and the presidential field, now that John McCain is out of the game. And from Britain, Tony Blair delivers a compromise between the demands of state and his pregnant wife. Thank you for joining us. Bernie is off today. Just a week after Al Gore appeared to be closing the gap with George W. Bush, the presidential race has widened again, according to our new CNN"USA Today" Gallup poll. The survey shows Bush now leading Gore by nine points among likely voters nationwide. Bush was just one point ahead last week. Gore's losses come 11 days after he broke with administration policy in the Elian Gonzalez case. Our Bill Schneider has been going over all these numbers. Bill, is this shift related to Gore's position on the Gonzalez child?
[William Schneider, Cnn Senior Political Analyst:] Well, Judy, that is possible. Americans continue to feel, by 2-1, that it would be in the best interests of the boy to live with his father in Cuba than to remain in the U.S. Now Gore took the position that he should be allowed to stay in the U.S. Here's something surprising. By the same 2-1 margin, Americans disapprove of the way the U.S. government has handled the Elian Gonzalez case, even though the government is taking the position that the boy should go back to his father. Now what's the government doing wrong? It's let the case drag on for four months and it's let the case become too political. Even though Gore has broken with the administration on this issue, those who dislike the way the government has handled it show very little support for the vice president. Gore has broken with the president for the wrong reason. The public wants the boy to go back to his father as quickly as possible. Gore backs legislation to grant Elian and his father permanent residency status.
[Woodruff:] Bill, is there specific evidence of what Gore has said and appeared to shift on, that this has cost him support?
[Schneider:] Actually, there is. Let's look at the majority of Americans who support returning the boy to live with his father in Cuba. In February, before Gore broke with the administration, those voters gave him a 13-point lead over Bush. That lead has now vanished. Notice that Gore lost almost 10 points among those who want Elian to go back. Has Gore made gains among those who want Elian to stay in the U.S.? No. In February, Bush had a 15-point lead among those voters. Now Bush leads by 20. Instead of picking up support, Gore has actually lost a few points among those who feel the boy should stay here. They don't seem very appreciative of the vice president's position.
[Woodruff:] And how about in South Florida? Do we know enough to know what voters there are thinking?
[Schneider:] Well, let's see. "The Miami Herald" published a poll of Dade County residents this weekend. It showed a deep and growing split between Cuban-Americans and others over this issue. Over 80 percent of Cuban-Americans favor keeping Elian in the U.S., while growing numbers of non-Hispanic whites and African-Americans favor the boy's return to his father. Three-quarters of South Florida whites and over 90 percent of blacks want him to go back. That split does not apply to the vice president. No constituency in South Florida approves of the way Gore has handled the issue. Cuban-Americans disapprove of Gore's handling of the situation 47 to 32 percent. A majority of South Florida whites disapprove. Even South Florida blacks disapprove of Gore's position by 2-1. Why? Because South Florida residents do not think Gore is sincere. Two-thirds say Gore's position is an attempt to get votes from South Florida. Almost everyone in South Florida believes that two-thirds of Cuban-Americans, two-thirds of whites, more than two- thirds of blacks. Gore is not getting credit from people on either side of the issue because his position is seen as a political move Judy.
[Woodruff:] All right, Bill Schneider, thanks very much. Well, while Gore has been trying to boost his prospects against Bush in Florida, some of the old Rust Belt states are considered to be the key presidential battlegrounds this year. Among them, Michigan, where many voters apparently are on the fence now that John McCain is out of the race.
[King:] ... time to think about anything but their...
[Unidentified Female:] And I didn't have those same feelings towards Gore or Bush.
[King:] John McCain... ... of choice for the Morgans and everyone else in this mix of Democrats and independents from the bellwether Kalamazoo area in southwest Michigan. [on camera]: Kalamazoo is at the heart of a reliably Republican congressional district, yet Jimmy Carter won here in 1976, and Bill Clinton narrowly carried the district twice, tapping into a pool of presidential swing voters who have a knack for picking the winners. [voice-over]: So who these folks pick now that McCain is gone from the race could be critical to the November outcome.
[Michelle Marquardt, Attorney:] I guess I'm looking for some sort of dignity, and I don't see that. I keep waiting for that.
[King:] Michele and Jim Marquardt are attorneys. She leans Democratic, he leans Republican.
[Jim Marquardt, Attorney:] I sense that Al Gore has learned well at the knee of his boss, and I've picked up on a number of things that Mr. Gore just has trouble finding the truth. And that bothers me.
[King:] But Jim isn't sold yet on Bush. And like many moderates in this part of the country worries the Texas governor tilts too far right.
[Joan Van Zoeren, Retired Librarian:] The Republicans have frozen out moderates in the last 20 years or so. And it's been extremely difficult for me.
[King:] Joan Van Zoeren voted for George Bush the elder back in 1988, then twice for Bill Clinton.
[Van Zoeren:] My problem with the Bushes is that he wanted to be president rather than he wanted to do things. And this is still my problem with the younger generation. And so I'm very undecided.
[King:] Most here voiced worry that both major party candidates are sons of privilege.
[Jerry Potratz, Human Resources Specialist:] I head down to Florida on spring break, and I'm heading down though Tennessee on Al Gore Highway Al Gore Sr. Highway. And I don't know. That rubs me the wrong way. I think they're out of touch. I think they're both out of touch.
[King:] Several on hand voted for Ross Perot at least once, but there was no support for a Pat Buchanan Reform Party candidacy here. These folks viewed McCain as a truth-teller, a leader, a reformer, and didn't mind, in his case, that they didn't see eye-to-eye on every issue.
[Bob Peterson, Human Resources Specialist:] He brought something to the race that resonated with me and obviously a lot of other people here. And I'm not sure I see that in the two candidates that are running for president at this point.
[King:] All 10 insist they haven't made up their minds for sure, but talk of the issues reveals some leanings.
[Norma Cash, Retired:] I've been around 80 years. I've worked all my life. And to not be able to have the medicine that I need, I'm not comfortable with that. And I don't think the Republicans are sympathetic at all.
[King:] Michele Spencer is African-American, a single mom who would have voted Republican in November if McCain were the nominee. But she sees his defeat as proof the GOP fears diversity.
[Michele Spencer, Engineer:] It really reminded me more of a machine, a system, that you really have to fit in as a candidate for the Republican Party to move ahead.
[King:] Physician Tom Melgar is watching how Gore and Bush handle the debate over the HMO patients' bill of rights.
[Dr. Tom Melgar, Pediatric Physician:] There are decisions that are clearly in the best interest of the patient, and we still have to argue with the insurance companies.
[King:] The Morgans are a snapshot of middle America young daughters raise concerns about schools and crime, an elderly parent a very different set of issues.
[Kent Morgan, Self-employed Consultant:] I have an 88-year-old mother who I think about her future. And I look at myself at that age and whether I'll have retirement and pension.
[King:] The disappointment that their candidate failed is still fresh and sometimes clouds their reaction to questions about Bush or Gore. But this late dash of snow can't hide for long that it's just spring, and that when it comes to picking a president there's no need to hurry.
[Woodruff:] Well, joining us now, John King, who has now level Michigan for Missouri, where he will continue talking to voters. John, is it fair to say that the voters who like John McCain are also independent?
[King:] It's not an exact match, Judy. There are some independents who, of course, did not support John McCain in the Republican race. But McCain's pollster, Bill McInturff, keeps doing research. He says in a recent national survey he conducted, some 25 percent of the electorate still identifies with the Arizona senator. And in McInturff's view, they will be the pivotal force in year's campaign.
[Bill Mcinturff, Gop Pollster:] There's roughly about one out of four people in the country who say yes. And those one out of four people are the swing vote in this election. They're tied to the generic congressional ballot. They're tied on the presidential ballot between Bush and Gore. And who are those people? Well, they're 35- 55, they're college graduates, they're upscale, they're suburban. And they are not hard partisans. And they've found a lot of appeal in John McCain, and I don't think they're strongly attached to either Bush or to Gore. And I think they're willing to listen to both sides.
[King:] One of the things we hope to do as we find these McCain voters and other independent voters is to keep in touch with them in the weeks and months ahead so we can get a sense of what it is in the end that helps them make up their mind as they choose the next president Judy.
[Woodruff:] John, as you talk to these voters, is there one issue that seems to be dominating the debate out there?
[King:] That's what's very striking about the election. There is no dominant issue right now. It's still April. There could be, come October and November. Some mention education, some mention health care, but in the good economic times, in the words of the Democratic pollster Peter Hart, he thinks the voters instead especially the independent-minded swing voters, we find in the suburbs and places here like St. Louis he thinks they will look at Al Gore and George Bush not on policy matters but look directly at the men and determine if they're leaders.
[Peter Hart, Democratic Pollster:] At this stage of the game, Gore and Bush look like they're small fighters going against one another. They look more like they are more like middleweights than heavyweights. And voters really want to be able to find a heavyweight. I believe that 2000 is a lot more about leadership than is about any single issue. It really has to do with something with stature.
[King:] And when we raise that question with the voters, we meet many raised questions about Governor George W. Bush's experience. Many know he has only been governor for five years. In the case of the vice president, they know he's been around a long time. But many feel detached from him as a person. They also view him as very much a tactical politician. And on the issue you opened the show with, asked voters out here in middle America about the Elian Gonzalez case, they feel both the vice president and Governor Bush have been pandering to the Cuban-Americans in Florida Judy.
[Woodruff:] All right, John King, who is now reporting from St. Louis, thanks, John. Good luck on your interviews with these voters. And still ahead on INSIDE POLITICS, a pause on the campaign trail as the vice president takes time out to honor his mother. And we will talk to a professor who says Al Gore has the keys to winning the White House.