[Griffin:] I want to show you some new pictures coming not connected with Hurricane Irene. It's an Amtrak derailment that took place in Nebraska today, the southwestern part of the state. A hundred and seventy-eight people were aboard that train. Three people with nonlife threatening injuries were taken to a hospital. Everybody else is OK. But if you're looking you're looking at this video for the first time, the wreckage of the t train hit some farm equipment and knocked the cars off the tracks there. It is hard to imagine a hurricane this size slamming into New York City. Experts are now warning, even if Irene turns and Manhattan isn't a direct hit, a storm surge could cause a lot of damage there. CNN's John Zarrella has been covering hurricanes across the Southeast for years. He lives in Florida, hurricane country, knows how to work this thing, right? That's why we send him to New Yorkers are preparing.
[John Zarrella, Cnn Correspondent:] Steve and Debbie O'Sullivan live in Rockaway Beach in Queens, New York; a tranquil setting, a beautiful, wide shoreline. They never really worried about hurricanes until now.
[Steve O'sullivan, Resident:] We never really understood, you know, the greater impact of it. We never really had a great fear of them. We used to play out in them.
[Zarrella:] What's changed?
[S. O'sullivan:] Katrina.
[Zarrella:] The O'Sullivans, whose house sits just one block from the ocean, with the Atlantic on one side and Jamaica Bay on the other, are thinking about stocking up on hurricane supplies.
[Debbie O'sullivan, Resident:] I really am seriously considering getting more supplies of water and dry goods. It is a worry for me. I mean, he is not as worried as I am.
[Zarrella:] There may be good reason for concern. New York City hasn't experienced a big hurricane since 1938. With the increase in hurricane activity, combined with the law of averages, many experts believe another major storm may be coming and soon. [on camera]: Is it going to be a slow rise?
[Nicholas K. Coch, Queens College/cuny:] Yes, yes. It's going to come up slowly, about the rate that you'd fill a bathtub.
[Zarrella:] Coastal geologist Nick Coch, himself a New Yorker, believes if a major hurricane hits, it could be catastrophic. Deaths might surpass Katrina.
[Coch:] Because the most dangerous thing in New York is the New Yorker, and the New Yorker thinks they've been tested by everything. But very few New Yorkers have been in the eye of a hurricane and know how uncontrollable the energy is.
[Zarrella:] National Hurricane Center computer models and comprehensive studies are chilling. The water is pushed into lower Manhattan, steadily rising. Sea water pours through the Holland and Brooklyn Battery Tunnels. JFK Airport goes under in an astounding 20 feet of water. [voice-over]: Water in the Wall Street District could be seven feet deep; the subways knocked out.
[Coch:] There's going to be glass all over the street, glass flying through the air.
[Zarrella:] One study puts economic losses from a Category 3 hurricane at $100 billion.
[Jeanne Salvatore, Insurance Information Institute:] Metropolitan areas high population density and very expensive properties. So, you throw a hurricane into that scenario, and results can be really catastrophic.
[Zarrella:] There is a plan in place if necessary to move 2.3 million people out of coastal zones. But how many will go? Dolores Orr heads the community board in Rockaway.
[Dolores Orr, Community Board Chairman:] For those that were raised here, I hear them today talking that they're not going anywhere. And that's a concern.
[Zarrella:] For the O'Sullivans, being prepared just makes sense even here in New York, where hurricanes are as unheard of as the Yankees not making play-offs. John Zarrella, CNN, New York.
[Griffin:] Always leaves us with a chuckle. Chad Myers is with me here. And we're joined down in Miami and south Florida with the former director of the National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield. Max, thanks so much for joining us. You have said this is part of a nightmare scenario you had always worried about going up the Northeast Coast. Can you explain that to us?
[Max Mayfield, Former Director, National Hurricane Center:] Mainly as we talked previously here is that large population and not really hurricane experienced. By the time they get north of Carolinas, the hurricane is a very infrequent thing, and I understand people not focusing on the hurricanes, but they really need to heed the advice of the officials. This is the real thing.
[Griffin:] It's a two. We just saw the numbers that we kind of focus on, Max, a two, goes down to a one. Many times we're warning people about threes and fours and increasing. Are you concerned at all that these numbers are going to get in the way of people making good decisions?
[Mayfield:] It did in hurricane Ike. It was only a category two, yet they had a storm surge. And if you remember hurricane Isabel in 2003, that was only a category two, but it hit Ocracoke Island. We ended up with six million people without power between North Carolina and New England. And most of those power outages occurred in areas outside hurricane force winds. You don't need hurricane force winds to cause trees to fall down and power lines to fall down. And especially with all the rain you have up there in the northeast, this is a real concern.
[Chad Myers, Ams Meteorologist:] Hey, Max, it's Chad Myers. We know that the storm can go left and right. But just put on your hat for a second and tell me, what's your biggest fear? Or what do you think will be the biggest problem with this land falling hurricane in the northeast? Where is it?
[Mayfield:] You have to have your plan for all the hazards, and that includes the storm surge and the wave action on top of the surge, the strong winds, and the inland fresh water flooding. There's going to be a tremendous rain, six to 10 inches, maybe 15 inches according to the National Weather Service. That's going to cause a lot of problems, and can cause loss of life if we're not very, very careful.
[Myers:] What happens to Long Island Sound when this wave action and wind action pushes all that water to the East River from basically two different directions?
[Mayfield:] That's a real good question. The circulation is so large on the north side of long island. It will be coming in from the south and from the east and that could be a problem there for sure. And I don't want to say anything contradictory to what they put up at the National Weather Service. I know my friends in the weather forecast offices and hurricane center. They're working very, very closely with the local and state emergency officials. I want to be sure there's a consistent message. I feel very, very strongly about that. And those in the emergency management, they've written those plans, they know what can happen communicating with the forecasters and the national weather service there. We want to make sure that the people respond to those messages from their local officials.
[Griffin:] We're looking at a local picture from space showing the sheer size of this thing. And of course with the size that also means the duration of rain is going to be longer and longer. But do you guys, I'll throw this out do you, Max, and Chad, any chance this thing just stalls and sits and dumps rain, or can we count on it to keep moving?
[Mayfield:] No. It's going to keep moving. There's no doubt about that. In fact the forward speed will increase the farther north it gets. But it is going to have this large rain shield out ahead of it. And there's going to be a heavy swath of rain, you know, well in advance. In fact, you know, those outer rain bands start in New York City on Saturday afternoon, and then the tropical storm force winds, you know, likely that evening, and the wind is going to continue to increase and hurricane force winds sometime on Sunday morning. So you want to have all your preparations done before the tropical storm force winds get there. And so really you've got today and you've got the morning on Saturday. You don't want to wait too long here.
[Griffin:] Max, thanks, always appreciate it. Chad, thank you, too. Still ahead, I'm going to speak with a bar owner in New York's Fire Island where there's already a mandatory evacuation order. But he's not going anywhere. Also this
[Unidentified Female:] We don't know what we might encounter in here and it's very, very dark. This is incredible. There is literally a city under here. But you can see wow.
[Griffin:] Uncovering the secret tunnels beneath Moammar Gadhafi's compound in Libya. We're also getting some disturbing word that hundreds of prisoners who are right now walking free in Libya have some dark histories. CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruikshank joins me live with brand-new information on that. And we'll also continue bringing you the latest on Hurricane Irene. Stay right here.