[Carol Costello, Cnn Anchor:] The dangers from Ivan remain. Today, the big threat flooding. It is Friday, September 17. This is DAYBREAK. And good morning to you. From the CNN Global Headquarters in Atlanta, I'm Carol Costello. Now in the news, in Iraq the U.S.-led coalition says it killed about 60 so-called foreign fighters in an air strike in Fallujah. The coalition says the fighters have ties to a terrorist leader. Iraqis claim many of the dead were women and children. Now there's a person to blame for the deadly attack on that school in southern Russia. Chechen terrorist leader Shamil Basayev has claimed responsibility for the attack and several others in Russia. Different results from two national polls on the Bush-Kerry race. A Gallup poll just out this morning shows the president widening his lead. But a new Pew Center poll shows the race is a dead heat. To the forecast center now and Chad good morning.
[Chad Myers, Cnn Meteorologist:] Good morning, Carol. Flooding definitely the problem today, all the way across, actually, Pennsylvania now. This moisture is going to come up over West Virginia, over parts of southern Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and then it's going to park itself right over, we'll call it the turnpike, if you will, right there across I-80 or I-76, right across central Pennsylvania. That's where the heaviest rain is going to be later on this afternoon. Right now, the heaviest rain is back out here, across I-75, I-65, from Louisville back over to Cincinnati and also all the way down south, even into parts of Georgia and also extreme eastern Tennessee. The rain just will not let up. The highest wind gust that I could actually find, it's about 40 miles per hour this morning. So this thing has really tapered off to just a tropical depression. It is no longer a tropical storm. One of those long fingers, though, all the way down still from Valdosta, Georgia this morning. So the scope of this thing, from Pennsylvania to Florida. Here is something else we want to watch for you, Jeanne. Jeanne not very organized this morning. Back to a tropical storm Jeanne. It was a hurricane for a while. It lost some energy overnight because it hit Hispaniola, it hit Haiti right there. Sixty-five miles per hour. And there are the numbers, 19.5 and 70.1. When it was over the Dominican Republic it was really losing energy. But it was also dumping a lot of rain. And there was flooding there. And you can see where Jeanne goes right off the coast here of Florida by Tuesday. And then the models actually turn it to the left, into the coast of the U.S. We're not sure where yet. And then there's a tropical storm Karl. It's going to be a category four hurricane. The only good news is it's in the middle of the ocean and it's planning to stay there Carol.
[Costello:] Oh, I hope so.
[Myers:] Yes.
[Costello:] Thank you, Chad. As Chad pointed out, Ivan no longer a hurricane. But it was one furious storm just 24 hours ago. Ivan killed 13 people in the Southeast, seven of them in the Florida Panhandle. It left more than one and a half million people without power in five states. Early estimates of insured losses are from $2 billion to $10 billion. National Guard troops have been sent to Pensacola, Florida and to Baldwin County, Alabama. Take a look at this. This is a street in Pensacola. Officials there say the damage is extreme. Four Pensacola hospitals were damaged by the storm. Many beachfront homes and businesses have been heavily damaged, as well. Some communities have imposed curfews. Twenty-eight hundred National Guard troops now heading to Pensacola. National Guard troops also are being sent to Baldwin County, Alabama. And the state's governor will get an aerial tour of the destruction later this morning. The damage does extend into Georgia. A tree fell on this car in Atlanta. Several tornadoes were spun off by Ivan and much of the state got at least seven inches of rain. Parts of Interstate 75 absolutely flooded. Oh, rush hour was an absolute mess. Ivan does remain a danger. These are new pictures just into CNN from our affiliate, WLOS. This is western North Carolina, where about 20 people had to be evacuated because of flooding. Gulf Shores, Alabama, Pensacola, Florida just two of the communities that took a right cross from Ivan. Our Anderson Cooper watched Ivan sweep ashore from a Gulf Coast hotel room. He filed this report the day after.
[Anderson Cooper, Cnn Correspondent:] Ivan the hurricane proved terrible indeed, tearing into Gulf Shores, Alabama as a Cat 3 storm, ransacking homes or reducing them to rubble all along the Gulf Coast.
[Unidentified Male:] Mother Nature is something not to be messed with. That's for sure.
[Cooper:] Flooding and damage are widespread and like the storm itself exceptionally intense. Insured losses alone are estimated in the billions. Ivan left some bridges in Florida and Alabama impassable. Signs are down. Trees are down. So are power lines. Ivan's ferocity knocked out electricity to more than a million people in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi.
[Unidentified Female:] That was the scariest thing I ever seen in my life. I won't never stay home again.
[Cooper:] Alabama's coastline braved a direct hit.
[Gov. Bob Riley , Alabama:] We knew it was going to be brutal. We knew it was going to be huge. We knew it was going to affect almost the entire state.
[Cooper:] Flooding on its Barrier Islands is catastrophic.
[Leanne Riles, Baldwin County Ema Director:] The majority of the condos and single homes, rental homes, Orange Beach all the way down to what was the
[Cooper:] To the west, coastal Mississippi was not spared from the destruction. Many businesses and homes have been damaged. But it was Florida's panhandle, already storm weary from two recent hurricanes, that was pummeled by Ivan's punishing winds.
[Gov Jeb Bush , Florida:] The larger Pensacola area appears to have experienced the brunt of the storm.
[Cooper:] Thousands of National Guard troops have been called up as recovery operations in Florida begin anew.
[Marty Evans, Pres., American Red Cross:] Our post disaster efforts will focus in on helping people get shelter, get clothing, get some very basic household requirements and then provide mental health support.
[Cooper:] Once ashore, Ivan lost some of its punch and was downgraded to a tropical storm. It continues to dump torrential rains across the southeastern U.S. causing more flooding, downing trees and power lines in Georgia.
[Ken Graham, National Weather Service:] I can't stress enough how dangerous Ivan remains.
[Costello:] Anderson Cooper reporting. We'll get another view of one of those hard hit communities 90 minutes from now when we go live to our Chris Lawrence. He's in Pensacola this morning. It is hard to believe, but another deadly storm may be heading this way. People are keeping an anxious eye on Jeanne. As you heard Chad say just a few minutes ago, that system has now been downgraded to a tropical storm, but it is expected to regain strength and actually could hit the United States by Tuesday. Jeanne slammed into the Dominican Republic as a category one hurricane. It killed a baby and forced thousands of people to flee their homes. Earlier in Puerto Rico, the storm killed two people and caused extensive flooding. November 2 is fast approaching. Just 46 days to go in the countdown to election day. Two new political polls are telling very different stories this morning about how the presidential race is shaping up. The Gallup poll shows President Bush widening his lead over Senator John Kerry among likely voters. Fifty-five percent favor Bush, 42 percent Kerry. But a Pew Research Center poll, also of likely voters, has the race dead even, with 47 percent favoring Bush, 46 percent favoring Kerry. The margin of error for both polls, 3 12 percentage points. After a morning campaign rally in the nation's capital, President Bush heads to Charlotte, North Carolina today. He'll attend a meeting with supporters and a fundraiser for a Republican Senate candidate. He then ends the day in Kennebunkport, Maine, where he'll spend the weekend at his family's vacation home. Kerry, Senator Kerry is in New Mexico today. He's holding a town hall meeting in Albuquerque and then later is on to a Denver suburb. Aides say he'll focus on health care at a town hall meeting there. Kerry spends the night back in Boston. A new intelligence warning takes a hard look at the realities of the future for Iraq. And while the picture it paints is grim, President Bush is focusing on the positive, while Senator Kerry is trying to make some political hay. CNN's Tom Foreman takes a look at wartime politics.
[Tom Foreman, Cnn Correspondent:] The bleak intelligence report has come to light during a particularly violent period in Iraq. But on the campaign trail, President Bush remained optimistic.
[George W. Bush, President Of The United States:] It wasn't all that long ago that Saddam Hussein was in power with his torture chambers and mass graves. And today, this country is headed toward elections. Freedom is on the march.
[Foreman:] But the White House admits the classified report written in July by the National Intelligence Council says Iraq's political, economic, and security troubles could lead to civil war at worst and a shaky democracy at best. John Kerry jumped on it.
[Sen. John Kerry , Presidential Candidate:] I believe you deserve a president who isn't going to gild that truth or gild our national security with politics, who is not going to ignore his own intelligence.
[Foreman:] Even some of the president's supporters are worried that Mr. Bush is playing politics. Tony Blankley of "The Washington Times" writes, "I find it hard not to suspect that an aggressive military policy to put down the insurgency is on hold until after the American election." While major operations against insurgents would have potential political risks, such as many casualties and Iraq spinning out of control, CNN's Jamie McIntyre says
[Jamie Mcintyre, Cnn Military Affairs Correspondent:] Pentagon officials that I've talked to insist that the subject of the presidential elections has not come up in any of the planning meetings they've had about the strategy in Iraq.
[Foreman:] Still, many presidents have faced this. Bill Clinton was accused of launching missiles to distract from his troubles, Ronald Reagan of invading Grenada to improve his poll numbers. [on camera]: Historians say the facts almost never support such claims and trying to manage a war for political gain is a bad bet, because wars are too unpredictable.
[Allan Lichtman, Presidential Historian:] Every decision is infused with politics. But typically it is a grand strategic vision of the president, right or wrong, that motivates war, not naked, raw politics.
[Foreman:] Whatever the motives behind the management of this war, this new information makes clear only that Iraq's future remains confoundingly uncertain.
[Costello:] In another expected report out on Iraq, inspectors say while they never found weapons of mass destruction, there is evidence Saddam Hussein had hoped to revive his old weapons programs. Sources familiar with that report say top U.S., the top U.S. inspector in Iraq found that Hussein, or Saddam Hussein, was in violation of U.N. agreements. No word yet if the report will be released before the November election. Just one word. The word is "illegal," and it's causing an uproar in parts of the international community. British and Australian leaders who are facing reelection joined in with Secretary of State Colin Powell in defending the Iraq war. But this week, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called the war illegal. Listen to this exchange with a BBC reporter.
[Kofi Annan, U.n. Secretary General:] I'm one of those who believe that there should have been a second resolution, because the Security Council indicated that if Iraq did not comply, there will be consequences. But then it was up to the Security Council to approve or determine what those consequences should be.
[Question:] So you don't think there was legal authority for the war?
[Annan:] I have made it, I have stated clearly that it was not in conformity with the Security Council, with the U.N. charter.
[Question:] It was illegal?
[Annan:] Yes, if you wish.
[Costello:] Annan's spokesman later played down the statement, saying the secretary general's position has not change over the last year. Is the situation in Iraq getting any better or is it doomed to get worse? Our Pentagon expert, Jamie McIntyre, will give us more details on that new intelligence report that tries to answer all of your questions and spells out the worst case scenario. But first, Michael Jackson expected in court this morning. We'll tell you who else is going to be there to face the singer. And at 55 minutes past the hour, a look at the best of the worst from New York's Fashion Week. Now here's a look at what else is making news this Friday morning.