[Michael Smerconish, Cnn:] The doc, now ahead of the Donald in Iowa. Well, in Colorado, pot has pulled out ahead of alcohol in tax revenues. I'll talk to its governor about this windfall. And with Benghazi seemingly in Hillary's rear view mirror, her campaign is about to unleash the big dog. Bill going back out on the campaign trail. And nobody knows his impact like Joe Klein who wrote "Primary Colors" and he'll join us. But first, even though no American will cast a presidential vote in the next 100 days, a lot of candidates are already out, Rick Perry, out. Scott Walker, out. Jim Webb, out, at least for now. Linc Chafeee, out, Jeb Bush just slashed his campaign staff. And "Political" reported this week that Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell is encouraging his fellow Kentuckian Rand Paul to s spend more time on his senate re-election next year instead of his presidential bid. At the last GOP debate, Donald Trump said Paul didn't deserve to be on the stage. So I asked Rand Paul about that.
[Smerconish:] I was at the Reagan Library for that first GOP debate. I thought it was absolutely bizarre that the opening question is a question about whether Donald Trump is fit to handle the nuclear codes. Question goes to Carly Fiorina, she responds. Trump then gets a rebuttal. And he begins by talking about you.
[Donald Trump, Presidential Candidate:] First of all, Rand Paul shouldn't even be on the stage. He's number 11, he's got one percent in the polls and how he got up here there's far too many people. Anyway. As far as temperament. And we all know that. I never attacked him on his look, and believe me, there's plenty of subject matter right there.
[Smerconish:] Why is he obsessed with you?
[Rand Paul, Presidential Candidate:] I think he was somewhat goaded into it. You know, for about a week before that debate, people kept asking me what are you going to say. And I kept kind of laughingly saying "you know I think I was a little easy on Donald Trump the first time, I guess I'll be harder this time." So I think he kind of felt like there's going to be some big, you know, getup or dust up here. But I think it also goes that I don't think there's a lot of important ideas for the country coming out of him. He's sort of king of the one-line insult. I just don't think vulgarity equates with insight. I think eventually, it will be an important question. Who do you want to be in charge of the nuclear codes? Who do you want to be in charge of nuclear weapons? Because temperament is important. Who do you want to be able to negotiate with Putin? Who do you want to be able to negotiate with all the world leaders? Someone who is somewhat sane in their world view or someone who thinks no, just give me power because I'm all-knowing and if I just have so much power I could fix everything because I'm winning and I think that kind of ludicrous notion of power, I think, is
[Smerconish:] Ben Carson had said some out of the box things and seems to get rewarded for them. He's now leading the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. What do you think when you see that?
[Paul:] I think it's actually good news that we're having some rotation among leadership in the polls and it isn't so monolithic. I think ultimately when we come to January, when we're a week or two out to the primary, my prediction is you'll have five or six people that are within striking range of leading. That's where we want to be.
[Smerconish:] Jim Webb is out, Scott Walker is long out, Lincoln Chafee is now out. Some people are now talking about Rand Paul getting out. I know you don't like that. It comes from the media. It occurs to me we're a long way from anybody casting a ballot. Give me a general take on this notion that candidates get out before Americans vote?
[Paul:] I'm a big believer that in democracy part of it is voting and so I'm all for letting people vote. We're not getting out until someone votes. In fact, we think our fortunes are actually improving. We think we have a better ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire than any other candidate. We think we have a unique pitch. We think the government shouldn't collect your phone records. We think the government shouldn't put you in jail for marijuana. And we think the government shouldn't send you back to war in Iraq. That's a unique pitch in the Republican primary. I think there are enough Republicans that will be attracted to it.
[Smerconish:] Is it true that Mitch McConnell was saying to you, you ought to focus on the Senate and not on the White House?
[Paul:] Now, that's a completely false story. And I think it's funny that people will write things that are completely false. I don't think he's even been asked that directly.
[Smerconish:] OK. Where's dad? I've always admired your father? I haven't seen him on the stump. Where is he?
[Paul:] I'm a great admirer of my dad's. I think he's one of the most honest people ever to serve in office. The race has to be about those those running though. I mean, Jeb's dad isn't going to be out there too much, I don't think his brother is either. It doesn't mean that he doesn't have a great deal of respect for him. I think he does and so do I. The race ultimately has to be about the individual running.
[Smerconish:] Senator Rand Paul has just published a book it's called "Our Presidents and Their Prayers: Proclamations of Faith by America's Leaders." Give me the thesis.
[Paul:] We often talk about the separation of church and state. We haven't talked about how actually our religious belief and faith was a big part of our nation's founding. And really every president from the beginning to current times has talked about how their faith influences their philosophy and their beliefs on how government ought to be run.
[Smerconish:] Do you think they're telling the truth? I ask that question, senator, because Pew Research came out with a survey this past spring. It said that 22 percent of Americans are now nones, n-o- n-e-s. Why is there not one single member of Congress, 535, House and Senate, who says I'm in that camp?
[Paul:] I think what you find even among the president from the beginning to now is that you find some of them weren't as always so orthodox as we would sort of define orthodox Christianity now. They likely believe in the divine providence but they did also believe in something that I think is really important, that the people should have virtue. That the people should have some self-restraint and that it's an important civilizing force to not just say, "oh, well, you have your liberty, do whatever you want." Now we say you have your liberty but we also want the people to have some sort of underlying virtue that gives stability and sense of purpose to a country.
[Smerconish:] Senator Rand Paul, thanks so much for being in the studio.
[Paul:] Thank you.
[Smerconish:] So you heard Rand Paul say that he's not getting out before people vote. Hear on that and more, independent political analyst Michelle Bernard, columnist and author Matt Lewis and Bob Beckel, he managed Walter Mondale's presidential campaign and has a brand-new book out. "I Should be Dead, my Life Surviving Politics, TV and Addiction." Matt Lewis, react to what you just heard from Rand Paul "I'm not getting out before people vote."
[Matt Lewis, Contributor "the Daily Caller":] Well, I think he's probably right. I mean, I think he's right about something else is that we're all sort of assuming that the polls that we've seen for the last 100 days with Donald Trump at or near the top, that that's the new normal. Things really change when you go into Iowa. I would not be surprised if we're not surprised. Somebody that's fifth place right now could end up winning Iowa.
[Smerconish:] As you know, we reference the "Des Moines Register" poll which shows that now Carson is in the lead ahead of Trump. Donald Trump had a very interesting reaction to it. Let's all watch.
[Trump:] We have a breaking story. Donald Trump has fallen to second place behind Ben Carson. We informed Ben, but he was sleeping.
[Smerconish:] Bob Beckel, it worked with regard to Jeb Bush. Is that going to work with regard to Ben Carson?
[Bob Beckel, Managed Walter Mondale's Presidential Campaign:] No. And it's funny about Trump, Trump will talk about the polls. That's his justification for why he's the main man in the Republican Party. Because he's always ahead in the polls. He falls behind in a couple of very good good polls, all of a sudden, he's got to turn it into a negative attack on Carson. I'll tell you one thing, he's very lucky, that these Benghazi hearings were taking place on Thursday. Because that tweet he sent out about Bob Sanfield in Iowa and this poll was just outrageous.
[Smerconish:] I'm going to show it. As a matter of fact, Michelle Bernard, take a look at this. This is the retweet from the Donald where he says "too much Monsanto in the corn creates issues in the brain." Then he quickly throws an intern under the bus when he realizes he's made a mistake. The young intern who accidentally did a retweet he or she, I guess apologize. Michelle Bernard, pretty stupid mistake to make for Iowa, right?
[Michelle Bernard, Republican Strategist:] I think it's a hugely stupid mistake to make in Iowa, and as usual it is always the poor interns' fault. When it comes to the king of social media and politics, at least when we talk about 2016 presidential politics. Big mistake for Donald Trump. You know, if I were advising Mr. Trump, with regard to Iowa, I would really tell him that there's no surprise that Ben Carson is doing as well as he is in Iowa with Republican caucusgoers. He is deeply evangelical. He's quiet, he's soft-spoken. He speaks to the people of Iowa in a way that the other Republican candidates has not been able to do so. But most importantly, if you're one of the other people running behind whether Mr. Carson in Iowa, you have to remember that Iowa caucusgoers also picked Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee.
[Smerconish:] And Mike Huckabee, right. Hey, I want to show you all three of you a montage of so-called gaffes by Dr. Carson. I have an observation that I'll share after we roll these 30 seconds.
[Ben Carson, Presidential Candidate:] You know, Obamacare is really, I think, the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. A lot of people who go into prison go into prison straight and when they come out they're gay. I think the likelihood of Hitler being able to accomplish his goals would have been greatly diminished if the people had been armed. I would not advocate that we put a Muslim in charge of this nation. I absolutely would not agree with that.
[Smerconish:] Matt Lewis, here's my theory. Ben Carson could pay for that commercial, roll it in Iowa and it would help him win the caucus. And then Hillary could run it in the general election and it would cost Ben Carson the general. Your thoughts?
[Lewis:] I think you're exactly right. I'm writing a book right now called "Too Dumb to Fail" about the conservative movement. And that's what this is, right? It actually helps them in the primary. It's a perverse incentive but in the long run, in the general election, it's death. That is the fundamental problem right now that conservatives and Republicans have is that in order to win the primary, it helps to say things that will maybe cause you the general election.
[Smerconish:] Bob, you react as well. Go ahead.
[Beckel:] Listen, that those kind of comments, that's not just going to win your general election. It's New Hampshire. It's getting into Nevada, it's in these states that follow that find that kind of stuff crazy. One of the things about Carson, yes, he's soft-spoken and yes, he's evangelical. And they do vote in those caucuses. By the way, I looked at the polls on Trump in Iowa, at the cross hairs, to see who the demographics who were supporting him and a lot of those people don't go to caucuses. But leaving that aside, I think Carson's, what he says now may be a good Iowa ground game, but in the best of these states, even among Republican, it's not that strong.
[Smerconish:] Michelle, before you react, I want you to hear a snippet from John Gibson's radio program where Ben Carson this week said something else that is controversial, listen.
[John Gibson, Radio Talk Show:] Do you think Biden will win?
[Carson:] Yes.
[Gibson:] Why do you think he can beat Hillary for the nomination?
[Carson:] Because Hillary could well be in jail and it's hard to run from there.
[Smerconish:] Michele Bernard, you're an independent, you're the exact type of voter that I'm talking about when I say this is lethal in a general election. But I'm speaking for you. Go ahead and react.
[Bernard:] Absolutely. Most independents, I would guess, are obviously going to think about every single candidate on an issue by issue basis. One of the things that I find most frightening about Ben Carson and what's happening in Iowa right now is that there's a reason I think BloombergDes Moines Register poll that shows on these comments, like what Dr. Carson said about Hillary Clinton, what he said about Obamacare and slavery, et cetera, et cetera. Iowans approve in large numbers, 70 percent, 80 percent, 88 percent agree with him. That's wonderful for him at the primary level. But I think it's also a way of handing the election over to Hillary Clinton, simply because Americans are going to hear those kind of statements. Independents in particular are sitting at home and they're saying "is this really who I want to be the next leader of what's supposed to be the greatest nation on earth."
[Smerconish:] Matt, I keep expecting a billowing of the so-called maverick field that's the field of Trump and Carson and Carly and I keep expecting the emergence of someone from the establishment camp and yet Jeb financially is now struggling, got a lot of money in the back but cut 40 percent his campaign staff. Is he going to be around long enough to be the beneficiary if in fact the mavericks start to drop?
[Lewis:] Well, look, I think if you compare and contrast the democrats, Joe Biden, Jim Webb, Linc Chafee, once they determine that they can't win the nomination, they sort of get out and clear the path for Hillary. Republicans are never going to do that because some of them think it's a wide open field they can win. I think others and what Fox News shows, whatever, a column somewhere, so they have an incentive to stay in the race. Jeb Bush, I think is a man as Winston Churchill said, had a brilliant future behind him. I think he would have been a great candidate in 1998. I don't think he's the right candidate for the Republican Party today.
[Smerconish:] Well, here's what Governor Bush is saying, he sat down with Pat Robertson. Beckel, react to what he said in this clip.
[Jeb Bush , Presiential Candidate:] This means lean and mean and means that I have the ability to adapt.
[Unidentifed Male:] OK.
[Bush:] And the circumstances when we started the election were different. I have not met a person that thought Donald Trump would be the front running candidate at this point. God bless him for success in that regard. We'll see how long that lasts but you have to adapt.
[Smerconish:] You know, Bob, the most telling thing to me, is that if you're running as a Republican, you still have to sit down with Pat Robertson if you're seeking the nomination.
[Beckel:] Well, the word adapt in presidential politics is
[Smerconish:] Well I know that you, Bob, are looking at a potential Rubio-Kasich ticket, as being the most formidable. Me, I've been thinking Kasich-Rubio. I guess there's a debate, Matt, as to which of the two would get top billing. Do you think Beckel is wrong to think that that's the most formidable for the GOP?
[Lewis:] Well, look, I think that maybe in a general election it would be but I don't think John Kasich can win a Republican primary. I think it's implausible. I do think Marco Rubio would win, who knows where he would go to for a running mate.
[Bernard:] Can I just add, Michael, I really think we make a mistake by counting Carly Fiorina out. 2012 was really the year of the Republican women. If you look in Iowa, if you look at South Carolina, you look all over the country, Republican voters liked Republican female candidates in 2012. People who were "true" to the Republican message, who were true conservatives. And I think Carly Fiorina should not be counted out. I would bet the Donald has to be out before her.
[Smerconish:] But, Michelle, what happened to her this week? She just took a hit in all of these surveys, what accounts for it?
[Bernard:] Well, I think that what we see with her is a bump that every time there is a debate. I think the longer we get to see her in public, debating all of the men that she's running against, the higher her numbers will keep going.
[Lewis:] She was really hurt by not having another debate. There's a month since that last debate, another one a week later. She had the momentum.
[Beckel:] The problem is when you do really well in a debate like she presumably did, you usually sustain that momentum going into the following week. In this case, she fell of rather dramatically. Has anybody seen or heard from her in the last week?
[Bernard:] I will tell you the mistake people make is when you do not, particularly with female candidates when you sort of write them off, and underestimate them. That's what the entire public has done with Carly Fiorina. I'm not saying she's going to be the Republican nominee. But I think we have not seen the last of her. And I would not be surprised if towards the end of the primary season, we're very seriously talking about Carly Fiorina and Hillary Clinton running against each other.
[Smerconish:] Hey, gang, before we shut down. Wait, I want to give Beckel props. A couple of weeks ago, you were here I asked you about Vice President Biden. Here's our exchange. One word answer from each of you. Bob Beckel, does Vice President Biden get into this thing?
[Beckel:] No.
[Smerconish:] You know, Bob, the speech that he delivered in the Rose Garden, if you wipe out the first three paragraphs and replace it with "I'm a candidate for president of the United States," you don't have to change another word. But it's remarkable to study that document. Quick reaction from you before we go?
[Beckel:] Well, I think I'm glad he did what he did. I don't think he could have run and listen, if Hillary didn't get into trouble with the IRS, he could get into this race anyway,
[Smerconish:] The A-team, Bob Beckel, Michelle Bernard, Matt Lewis, thank you so much for being here.
[Bernard:] Thank you.
[Beckel:] Thank you.
[Smerconish:] So what do you think? Tweet me @smerconish. I'll read the best at the end of the program. Coming up a new Gallup poll says nearly six in 10 Americans favor the legalization of marijuana. So why does Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper think other governors shouldn't rush to imitate his state's social experiment with pot. I'm about to ask him.