Russia-Ukraine: A negotiated settlement will be difficult. All wars come to an end. One side may be conquered, the attacker may give up and withdraw, or the warring parties can negotiate a settlement. Whether Russia’s unjustified war on Ukraine gets to a genuine negotiation depends first on whether Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin adjust their demands. Lack of success on the battlefield may give reason to do so, but the Kremlin has yet to show real readiness to engage. Even if Moscow gets serious, the negotiation will prove difficult.A Failing Offensive?
Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24. To the surprise of many in Moscow, Ukrainian armed forces have waged a stubborn, determined and effective defense. Russian officials claim that military operations are proceeding according to plan, but few share that view.

Russia’s armed forces have clearly underperformed. They failed to occupy Kyiv, believed to be their top objective. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city sited just 20 miles from the Russian border, remains in Ukrainian hands. The Russians continue to struggle to gain Mariupol, which they have subjected to brutal bombardment. Moscow says it has lost 1,351 soldiers killed in action, but NATO officials estimate the true number lies between 7,000 and 15,000.

In what may be implicit acknowledgment of the difficulties the Russian military has encountered, Russian officials have said their main goal now is “the liberation” of Donbas in Ukraine’s east. The Russian ministry of defense claimed to be withdrawing some forces near Kyiv, but U.S. officials questioned whether they intended a withdrawal or planned simply to reposition forces, perhaps to take part in operations in Donbas.

Negotiating Positions on the Table
Moscow earlier in the war advanced maximalist demands: denazification, demilitarization, neutrality, recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and recognition of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” as independent states. On March 29 in Istanbul, Ukrainian negotiators put forward Kyiv’s proposals. On March 30, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov downplayed the proposals, saying they were not “too promising.”

If—still an if question—Moscow decides to engage seriously, tough negotiations would ensue.

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