It is unlikely that Russia will agree to a negotiated settlement that does not include Ukraine's neutrality. Russia's primary goal in the war is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to keep it in its sphere of influence. Russia sees NATO expansion as a threat to its security, and it views Ukraine as a vital part of its strategic buffer zone.

Russia has made it clear that it will not accept any negotiated settlement that does not include Ukraine's neutrality. In July 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that "Ukraine must clearly understand that it will never be a NATO member." He also said that Ukraine must recognize Crimea as Russian territory and the Donbas region as independent republics.

Ukraine is unlikely to agree to these demands, as it would mean abandoning its aspirations to join NATO and giving up control of significant territory. This is why the chances of a negotiated settlement that does not include Ukraine's neutrality are currently low.

However, it is possible that Russia could be persuaded to change its position if the war continues to drag on and if it suffers further military setbacks. If Russia realizes that it cannot achieve its objectives on the battlefield, it may be more willing to negotiate a settlement that does not include Ukraine's neutrality.

Ultimately, the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a negotiated settlement that does not include Ukraine's neutrality will depend on a number of factors, including the course of the war, the level of international pressure on Russia, and the willingness of both sides to compromise.
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