Using your thoughtful analogy, equilibrium in a socio-political system does have some similarities to equilibrium in a thermodynamic system.  While specific key factors depend on the context and particular system in question, in general it could be a useful guidline to consider a system in equillibrium will be at its lowest energy and highest entropy.  That is to say, no other accessible state has a lower energy or higher entropy (otherwise the system is not yet in equillibrium and is instead still dynamically evolving). The difference between a state of true settlement and one of temporary cessation of conflict is like the difference between a stable state and a metastable state.
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