There are three concepts that are commonly applied in science, or whenever you need to make decisions based on your observations. The central limit theorem states that the longer you observe to get more data, the better your understanding becomes about what can be expected to happen how often. You can then clearly state how often an event happens, and also if two events are observed together. And claims for events to happen that do not happen, are then falsified. The difficulty is that you cannot wait infinitely long to such empirically determine who is right, and for some events like floods or volcanos we do not want to wait until it is too late. You only have a series of samples from which you need to predict what the analysis of future samples would bring. Occam's razor says that when two explanations, scientists may say "models", are equally well explaining what you see, then the one that is less complicated should be expected to be closer to the truth.

Scientific methods are not meant to make sense of the world as a whole. The world is too complex for that. But for your personal decision making or your long term planning, you are likely to explicitly with pen and paper or to intuitively apply those principles. For instance you already know where to get the best ice cream in town, maybe you have visited those vendors multiple times to make up your decision, and you do not think that the moon has an influence.

To understand the term "model" a bit better, think of car manufacturers. They look at problems that cars have and need to decide if the problem is caused by the car having faults or by the driver using the car badly. They may ask if the gender of the driver makes as difference for the likelihood of an error to manifest early.  Because of the central limit theorem they know they would get a stronger statistical evidence with a large number of cars with that failure. Depending on the type of the problem, Occam's razor may be useful to decide if a simpler explanation may be that the salary of the owner is influencing the error to be seen, e.g. by a reduced maintenance when you earn less.
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