"""
Monte Carlo-type tests for the BM model

Note that that the actual tests that run are just regression tests against
previously estimated values with small sample sizes that can be run quickly
for continuous integration. However, this file can be used to re-run (slow)
large-sample Monte Carlo tests.
"""
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

import pytest

from numpy.testing import assert_allclose
from scipy.signal import lfilter

from statsmodels.tsa.statespace import (
    dynamic_factor_mq, sarimax, varmax, dynamic_factor)


def simulate_k_factor1(nobs=1000):
    mod_sim = dynamic_factor.DynamicFactor(np.zeros((1, 4)), k_factors=1,
                                           factor_order=1, error_order=1)
    loadings = [1.0, -0.75, 0.25, -0.3, 0.5]
    p = np.r_[loadings[:mod_sim.k_endog],
              [10] * mod_sim.k_endog,
              0.5,
              [0.] * mod_sim.k_endog]
    ix = pd.period_range(start='1935-01', periods=nobs, freq='M')
    endog = pd.DataFrame(mod_sim.simulate(p, nobs), index=ix)

    true = pd.Series(p, index=mod_sim.param_names)

    # Compute levels series (M and Q)
    ix = pd.period_range(start=endog.index[0] - 1, end=endog.index[-1],
                         freq=endog.index.freq)
    levels_M = 1 + endog.reindex(ix) / 100
    levels_M.iloc[0] = 100
    levels_M = levels_M.cumprod()
    log_levels_M = np.log(levels_M) * 100
    log_levels_Q = (np.log(levels_M).resample('Q', convention='e')
                                    .sum().iloc[:-1] * 100)

    # This is an alternative way to compute the quarterly levels
    # endog_M = endog.iloc[:, :3]
    # x = endog.iloc[:, 3:]
    # endog_Q = (x + 2 * x.shift(1) + 3 * x.shift(2) + 2 * x.shift(3) +
    #            x.shift(4)).resample('Q', convention='e').last().iloc[:-1] / 3
    # levels_Q = 1 + endog.iloc[:, 3:] / 100
    # levels_Q.iloc[0] = 100

    # Here is another alternative way to compute the quarterly levels
    # weights = np.array([1, 2, 3, 2, 1])
    # def func(x, weights):
    #     return np.sum(weights * x)
    # r = endog_M.rolling(5)
    # (r.apply(func, args=(weights,), raw=False).resample('Q', convention='e')
    #                                           .last().iloc[:-1].tail())

    # Compute the growth rate series that we'll actually run the model on
    endog_M = log_levels_M.iloc[:, :3].diff()
    endog_Q = log_levels_Q.iloc[:, 3:].diff()

    return endog_M, endog_Q, log_levels_M, log_levels_Q, true


def simulate_k_factors3_blocks2(nobs=1000, idiosyncratic_ar1=False):
    # Simulate the first two factors
    ix = pd.period_range(start='2000-01', periods=1, freq='M')
    endog = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros((1, 2)), columns=['f1', 'f2'], index=ix)
    mod_f_12 = varmax.VARMAX(endog, order=(1, 0), trend='n')
    params = [0.5, 0.1, -0.2, 0.9, 1.0, 0, 1.0]
    f_12 = mod_f_12.simulate(params, nobs)

    # Simulate the third factor
    endog = pd.Series([0], name='f3', index=ix)
    mod_f_3 = sarimax.SARIMAX(endog, order=(2, 0, 0))
    params = [0.7, 0.1, 1.]
    f_3 = mod_f_3.simulate(params, nobs)

    # Combine the factors
    f = pd.concat([f_12, f_3], axis=1)

    # Observed variables
    k_endog = 8
    design = np.zeros((k_endog, 3))
    design[0] = [1.0, 1.0, 1.0]
    design[1] = [0.5, -0.8, 0.0]
    design[2] = [1.0, 0.0, 0.0]
    design[3] = [0.2, 0.0, -0.1]
    design[4] = [0.5, 0.0, 0.0]
    design[5] = [-0.2, 0.0, 0.0]
    design[6] = [1.0, 1.0, 1.0]
    design[7] = [-1.0, 0.0, 0.0]

    rho = np.array([0.5, 0.2, -0.1, 0.0, 0.4, 0.9, 0.05, 0.05])
    if not idiosyncratic_ar1:
        rho *= 0.0
    eps = [lfilter([1], [1, -rho[i]], np.random.normal(size=nobs))
           for i in range(k_endog)]
    endog = (design @ f.T).T + eps
    endog.columns = [f'y{i + 1}' for i in range(k_endog)]

    # True parameters
    tmp1 = design.ravel()
    tmp2 = np.linalg.cholesky(mod_f_12['state_cov'])
    tmp3 = rho if idiosyncratic_ar1 else []
    true = np.r_[
        tmp1[tmp1 != 0],
        mod_f_12['transition', :2, :].ravel(),
        mod_f_3['transition', :, 0],
        tmp2[np.tril_indices_from(tmp2)],
        mod_f_3['state_cov', 0, 0],
        tmp3,
        [1] * k_endog
    ]

    # Compute levels series (M and Q)
    ix = pd.period_range(endog.index[0] - 1, endog.index[-1], freq='M')
    levels_M = 1 + endog.reindex(ix) / 100
    levels_M.iloc[0] = 100
    levels_M = levels_M.cumprod()
    log_levels_M = np.log(levels_M) * 100
    log_levels_Q = (np.log(levels_M).resample('Q', convention='e')
                                    .sum().iloc[:-1] * 100)

    # Compute the growth rate series that we'll actually run the model on
    endog_M = log_levels_M.iloc[:, :7].diff().iloc[1:]
    endog_Q = log_levels_Q.iloc[:, 7:].diff().iloc[2:]

    # Specification
    factor_names = np.array(['global', 'second', 'third'])
    factors = {endog.columns[i]: factor_names[design[i] != 0]
               for i in range(k_endog)}

    factor_orders = {
        ('global', 'second'): 1,
        'third': 2,
    }

    return (endog_M, endog_Q, log_levels_M, log_levels_Q, factors,
            factor_orders, true, f)


@pytest.mark.skip(reason="Monte carlo test, very slow, kept for manual runs")
def test_k_factor1(reset_randomstate):
    # Fitted parameters for np.random.seed(1234) replicate the true parameters
    # pretty well (flipped signs on loadings are just from usual factor sign
    # identification issue):
    #                       True  Fitted
    # loading.0->0          1.00   -0.98
    # loading.0->1         -0.75    0.75
    # loading.0)->2         0.25   -0.24
    # loading.0->3         -0.30    0.31
    # L1.0->0               0.50    0.50
    # sigma2.0             10.00   10.07
    # sigma2.1             10.00   10.06
    # sigma2.2             10.00    9.94
    # sigma2.3             10.00   11.60
    np.random.seed(1234)
    endog_M, endog_Q, _, _, true_params, _ = simulate_k_factor1(nobs=100000)

    mod = dynamic_factor_mq.DynamicFactorMQ(
        endog_M, endog_quarterly=endog_Q, factors=1, factor_orders=1,
        idiosyncratic_ar1=False)
    # Fit the model with L-BFGS. Because the model doesn't impose identifying
    # assumptions on the factors, here we force identification by fixing the
    # factor error variance to be unity
    with mod.fix_params({'fb(0).cov.chol[1,1]': 1.}):
        mod.fit(method='lbfgs', disp=False)


def gen_k_factor1_nonstationary(nobs=1000, k=1, idiosyncratic_ar1=False,
                                idiosyncratic_var=0.4, k_ar=1):
    # Simulate univariate random walk
    ix = pd.period_range(start='1950-01', periods=1, freq='M')
    faux = pd.Series([0], index=ix)
    mod = sarimax.SARIMAX(faux, order=(k_ar, 0, 0), initialization='diffuse')

    params = np.r_[[0] * (k_ar - 1), [1.0001], 1.0]
    factor = mod.simulate(params, nobs)

    if idiosyncratic_ar1:
        mod_idio = sarimax.SARIMAX(faux, order=(1, 0, 0))
        endog = pd.concat([
            factor + mod_idio.simulate([0.7, idiosyncratic_var], nobs)
            for i in range(2 * k)], axis=1)
    else:
        endog = pd.concat([
            factor + np.random.normal(scale=idiosyncratic_var**0.5, size=nobs)
            for i in range(2 * k)], axis=1)

    # Construct the quarterly variable
    levels_M = 1 + endog / 100
    levels_M.iloc[0] = 100
    levels_M = levels_M.cumprod()
    log_levels_M = np.log(levels_M) * 100
    log_levels_Q = (np.log(levels_M).resample('Q', convention='e')
                                    .sum().iloc[:-1] * 100)

    # Compute the growth rate series that we'll actually run the model on
    endog_M = log_levels_M.diff().iloc[1:, :k]
    if k > 1:
        endog_M.columns = ['yM%d_f1' % (i + 1) for i in range(k)]
    else:
        endog_M.columns = ['yM_f1']
    endog_Q = log_levels_Q.diff().iloc[1:, k:]
    if k > 1:
        endog_Q.columns = ['yQ%d_f1' % (i + 1) for i in range(k)]
    else:
        endog_Q.columns = ['yQ_f1']

    return endog_M, endog_Q, factor


def test_em_nonstationary(reset_randomstate):
    # Test that when the EM algorithm estimates non-stationary parameters, that
    # it warns the user and switches to a diffuse initialization.
    ix = pd.period_range(start='2000', periods=20, freq='M')
    endog_M = pd.Series(np.arange(20), index=ix)
    endog_M.iloc[10:12] += [0.4, -0.2]  # add in a little noise
    ix = pd.period_range(start='2000', periods=5, freq='Q')
    endog_Q = pd.Series(np.arange(5), index=ix)

    mod = dynamic_factor_mq.DynamicFactorMQ(
        endog_M, endog_quarterly=endog_Q, idiosyncratic_ar1=False,
        standardize=False, factors=['global'])
    msg = ('Non-stationary parameters found at EM iteration 1, which is not'
           ' compatible with stationary initialization. Initialization was'
           r' switched to diffuse for the following:  \["factor block:'
           r' \(\'global\',\)"\], and fitting was restarted.')
    with pytest.warns(UserWarning, match=msg):
        mod.fit(maxiter=2, em_initialization=False)


def gen_k_factor1(nobs=10000, k=1, idiosyncratic_ar1=False,
                  idiosyncratic_var=0.4, k_ar=6):
    # Simulate univariate AR(6)
    ix = pd.period_range(start='1950-01', periods=1, freq='M')
    faux = pd.Series([0], index=ix)
    mod = sarimax.SARIMAX(faux, order=(k_ar, 0, 0))

    params = np.r_[[0] * (k_ar - 1), [0.5], 1.0]
    factor = mod.simulate(params, nobs)

    if idiosyncratic_ar1:
        mod_idio = sarimax.SARIMAX(faux, order=(1, 0, 0))
        endog = pd.concat([
            factor + mod_idio.simulate([0.7, idiosyncratic_var], nobs)
            for i in range(2 * k)], axis=1)
    else:
        endog = pd.concat([
            factor + np.random.normal(scale=idiosyncratic_var**0.5, size=nobs)
            for i in range(2 * k)], axis=1)

    # Construct the quarterly variable
    levels_M = 1 + endog / 100
    levels_M.iloc[0] = 100
    levels_M = levels_M.cumprod()
    log_levels_M = np.log(levels_M) * 100
    log_levels_Q = (np.log(levels_M).resample('Q', convention='e')
                                    .sum().iloc[:-1] * 100)

    # Compute the growth rate series that we'll actually run the model on
    endog_M = log_levels_M.diff().iloc[1:, :k]
    if k > 1:
        endog_M.columns = ['yM%d_f1' % (i + 1) for i in range(k)]
    else:
        endog_M.columns = ['yM_f1']
    endog_Q = log_levels_Q.diff().iloc[1:, k:]
    if k > 1:
        endog_Q.columns = ['yQ%d_f1' % (i + 1) for i in range(k)]
    else:
        endog_Q.columns = ['yQ_f1']

    return endog_M, endog_Q, factor


@pytest.mark.filterwarnings("ignore:Log-likelihood decreased")
def test_k_factor1_factor_order_6(reset_randomstate):
    # This tests that the model is correctly set up when the lag order of the
    # factor is longer than 5 and we have a single factor. This is important
    # because 5 lags are always present when there is quarterly data, but we
    # want to check that, for example, we haven't accidentally relied on there
    # being exactly 5 lags available.
    # Note: as of 2020/07/25, the FRBNY code does not seem to work for 6 lags,
    # so we can't test against their code
    # Note: the case with only 100 nobs leads to issues with the EM algorithm
    # and a decrease in the log-likelihood

    # There is a description of the results from
    # a run with nobs=10000 that are a better indication of the model finding
    # the correct parameters.

    endog_M, endog_Q, _ = gen_k_factor1(
        nobs=100, idiosyncratic_var=0.0)

    # Construct and fit the model
    mod = dynamic_factor_mq.DynamicFactorMQ(
        endog_M, endog_quarterly=endog_Q,
        factor_orders=6,
        idiosyncratic_ar1=False, standardize=False)
    mod.fit()

    # From a run with 10000 observations, we get:
    # This results in the following fitted coefficients
    #                       True  Fitted
    # loading.0->y1         1.00    1.15
    # loading.0->y2         1.00    1.15
    # L1.0->0               0.00   -0.01
    # L2.0->0               0.00   -0.01
    # L3.0->0               0.00    0.01
    # L4.0->0               0.00    0.01
    # L5.0->0               0.00   -0.00
    # L6.0->0               0.50    0.50
    # fb(0).cov.chol[1,1]   1.00    0.87
    # sigma2.y1             0.00   -0.00
    # sigma2.y2             0.00    0.00
    #
    # Note that the fitted values are essentially exactly right, once we
    # account for the lack of factor identification. In particular, if we
    # normalize the loadings to one, then the estimated factor error variance
    # is (0.87 * 1.15)**2 = 1.0, as desired.


def gen_k_factor2(nobs=10000, k=2, idiosyncratic_ar1=False,
                  idiosyncratic_var=0.4, k_ar=6):
    # Simulate bivariate VAR(6) for the factor
    ix = pd.period_range(start='1950-01', periods=1, freq='M')
    faux = pd.DataFrame([[0, 0]], index=ix,
                        columns=['f1', 'f2'])
    mod = varmax.VARMAX(faux, order=(k_ar, 0), trend='n')
    A = np.zeros((2, 2 * k_ar))
    A[:, -2:] = np.array([[0.5, -0.2],
                          [0.1, 0.3]])
    Q = np.array([[1.5, 0.2],
                  [0.2, 0.5]])
    L = np.linalg.cholesky(Q)
    params = np.r_[A.ravel(), L[np.tril_indices_from(L)]]

    # Simulate the factors
    factors = mod.simulate(params, nobs)

    # Add in the idiosyncratic part
    faux = pd.Series([0], index=ix)
    mod_idio = sarimax.SARIMAX(faux, order=(1, 0, 0))
    phi = [0.7, -0.2] if idiosyncratic_ar1 else [0, 0.]
    tmp = factors.iloc[:, 0] + factors.iloc[:, 1]

    # Monthly variables
    endog_M = pd.concat([tmp.copy() for i in range(k)], axis=1)
    columns = []
    for i in range(k):
        endog_M.iloc[:, i] = (
            endog_M.iloc[:, i] +
            mod_idio.simulate([phi[0], idiosyncratic_var], nobs))
        columns += [f'yM{i + 1}_f2']
    endog_M.columns = columns

    # Monthly versions of quarterly variables
    endog_Q_M = pd.concat([tmp.copy() for i in range(k)], axis=1)
    columns = []
    for i in range(k):
        endog_Q_M.iloc[:, i] = (
            endog_Q_M.iloc[:, i] +
            mod_idio.simulate([phi[0], idiosyncratic_var], nobs))
        columns += [f'yQ{i + 1}_f2']
    endog_Q_M.columns = columns

    # Create quarterly versions of quarterly variables
    levels_M = 1 + endog_Q_M / 100
    levels_M.iloc[0] = 100
    levels_M = levels_M.cumprod()
    # log_levels_M = np.log(levels_M) * 100
    log_levels_Q = (np.log(levels_M).resample('Q', convention='e')
                                    .sum().iloc[:-1] * 100)

    # Compute the quarterly growth rate series
    endog_Q = log_levels_Q.diff()

    return endog_M, endog_Q, factors


@pytest.mark.skip(reason="Monte carlo test, very slow, kept for manual runs")
def test_k_factor2_factor_order_6(reset_randomstate):
    # This tests that the model is correctly set up when the lag order of the
    # factor is longer than 5 and we have two factors. This is important
    # because 5 lags are always present when there is quarterly data, but we
    # want to check that, for example, we haven't accidentally relied on there
    # being exactly 5 lags available.
    # Note: as of 2020/07/25, the FRBNY code does not seem to work for 6 lags,
    # so we can't test against their code

    endog_M, endog_Q, factors = gen_k_factor2()

    # Add the factors in to endog_M, which will allow us to identify them,
    # since endog_M and endog_Q are all the same linear combination of the
    # factors
    endog_M_aug = pd.concat([factors, endog_M], axis=1)

    mod = dynamic_factor_mq.DynamicFactorMQ(
        endog_M_aug, endog_quarterly=endog_Q,
        factor_multiplicities=2, factor_orders=6,
        idiosyncratic_ar1=False, standardize=False)
    res = mod.fit()

    # The identification for the VAR system means that it is harder to visually
    # check that the estimation procedure produced good estimates.

    # This is the invertible matrix that we'll use to transform the factors
    # and parameter matrices into the original form
    M = np.kron(np.eye(6), mod['design', :2, :2])
    Mi = np.linalg.inv(M)

    # Get the estimated parameter matrices
    Z = mod['design', :, :12]
    A = mod['transition', :12, :12]
    R = mod['selection', :12, :2]
    Q = mod['state_cov', :2, :2]
    RQR = R @ Q @ R.T

    # Create the transformed matrices
    Z2 = Z @ Mi
    A2 = M @ A @ Mi
    Q2 = (M @ RQR @ M.T)

    # In this example, both endog_M and endog_Q are equal to the factors,
    # so we expect the loading matrix to look like, which can be confirmed
    # (up to some numerical precision) by printing Z2
    # [ I   0   0   0  0 ]
    # [ I  2I  3I  2I  I ]
    print(Z2.round(2))
    desired = np.array([
        [1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0],
        [1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0]])
    assert_allclose(Z2, desired, atol=0.1)
    # Confirm that this is approximately:
    # [  0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0.5 -0.2 ]
    # [  0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0.1  0.3 ]
    print(A2.round(2))
    desired = np.array([
        [0, 0, 0.02, 0, 0.01, -0.03, 0.01, 0.02, 0, -0.01, 0.5, -0.2],
        [0, 0, 0, 0.02, 0, -0.01, 0, 0, 0, 0.01, 0.1, 0.3],
        [1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0, 0],
        [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1., 0, 0]])
    assert_allclose(A2, desired, atol=1e-2)
    # Confirm that this is approximately:
    # [ 1.5  0.2 ]
    # [ 0.2  0.5 ]
    # in the top left corner, and then zeros elsewhere
    print(Q2.round(2))
    desired = np.array([[1.49, 0.21],
                        [0.21, 0.49]])
    assert_allclose(Q2[:2, :2], desired, atol=1e-2)
    assert_allclose(Q2[:2, 2:], 0, atol=1e-2)
    assert_allclose(Q2[2:, :2], 0, atol=1e-2)
    assert_allclose(Q2[2:, 2:], 0, atol=1e-2)

    # Finally, check that after the transformation, the factors are equal to
    # endog_M
    a = res.states.smoothed
    a2 = (M @ a.T.iloc[:12]).T
    assert_allclose(endog_M.values, a2.iloc[:, :2].values, atol=1e-10)


@pytest.mark.skip(reason="Monte carlo test, very slow, kept for manual runs")
def test_two_blocks_factor_orders_6(reset_randomstate):
    # This tests that the model is correctly set up when the lag order of the
    # factor is longer than 5 and we have two blocks of factors, one block with
    # a single factor and one block with two factors.

    # For the results below, we use nobs=1000, since nobs=10000 takes a very
    # long time and a large amount of memory. As a result, the results below
    # are noisier than they could be, although they still provide pretty good
    # evidence that the model is performing as it should
    nobs = 1000
    idiosyncratic_ar1 = True
    k1 = 3
    k2 = 10
    endog1_M, endog1_Q, f1 = gen_k_factor1(
        nobs, k=k1, idiosyncratic_ar1=idiosyncratic_ar1)
    endog2_M, endog2_Q, f2 = gen_k_factor2(
        nobs, k=k2, idiosyncratic_ar1=idiosyncratic_ar1)

    endog_M = pd.concat([endog1_M, f2, endog2_M], axis=1)
    endog_Q = pd.concat([endog1_Q, endog2_Q], axis=1)

    factors = {f'yM{i + 1}_f1': ['a'] for i in range(k1)}
    factors.update({f'yQ{i + 1}_f1': ['a'] for i in range(k1)})
    factors.update({f'f{i + 1}': ['b'] for i in range(2)})
    factors.update({f'yM{i + 1}_f2': ['b'] for i in range(k2)})
    factors.update({f'yQ{i + 1}_f2': ['b'] for i in range(k2)})
    factor_multiplicities = {'b': 2}

    mod = dynamic_factor_mq.DynamicFactorMQ(
        endog_M, endog_quarterly=endog_Q,
        factors=factors, factor_multiplicities=factor_multiplicities,
        factor_orders=6, idiosyncratic_ar1=idiosyncratic_ar1,
        standardize=False)
    mod.fit()

    # For the 1-factor block:
    # From one run, the following fitted coefficients were estimated:
    #                       True  Fitted
    # loading.a->yM1_f1     1.00   -0.86
    # loading.a->yM2_f1     1.00   -0.85
    # loading.a->yM3_f1     1.00   -0.86
    # loading.a->yQ1_f1     1.00   -0.71
    # loading.a->yQ2_f1     1.00   -0.47
    # loading.a->yQ3_f1     1.00   -0.48
    # L1.a->a               0.00    0.05
    # L2.a->a               0.00    0.06
    # L3.a->a               0.00    0.04
    # L4.a->a               0.00   -0.03
    # L5.a->a               0.00   -0.06
    # L6.a->a               0.50    0.46
    # fb(0).cov.chol[1,1]   1.00    1.63
    # L1.eps_M.yM1_f1       0.70    0.65
    # L1.eps_M.yM2_f1       0.70    0.67
    # L1.eps_M.yM3_f1       0.70    0.68
    # L1.eps_Q.yQ1_f1       0.70    0.76
    # L1.eps_Q.yQ2_f1       0.70    0.59
    # L1.eps_Q.yQ3_f1       0.70    0.62
    # sigma2.yM1_f1         0.40    0.39
    # sigma2.yM2_f1         0.40    0.41
    # sigma2.yM3_f1         0.40    0.40
    # sigma2.yQ1_f1         0.40    0.43
    # sigma2.yQ2_f1         0.40    0.60
    # sigma2.yQ3_f1         0.40    0.59
    # These are pretty good:
    # 1. When we normalize the factor by the first loading, the monthly
    #    variables then all have loading close to 1.0. However, the factor
    #    standard deviation is 0.86 * 1.63 = 1.4, which is higher than it
    #    should be (this is largely due to the existence of the quarterly
    #    variables, which only have 1/3 the number of observations, and make
    #    the estimation more noisy)
    # 2. Similarly, the idiosyncratic AR(1) and error variance are pretty-well
    #    estimated, although more-so for monthly than quarterly variables
    # 3. The factor transition is pretty good, although there is some noise in

    # For the 2-factor block:
    # The identification for the VAR system means that it is harder to visually
    # check that the estimation procedure produced good estimates.

    # This is the invertible matrix that we'll use to transform the factors
    # and parameter matrices into the original form
    from scipy.linalg import block_diag
    M1 = np.kron(np.eye(6), mod['design', 3:5, :2])
    M2 = np.kron(np.eye(6), mod['design', 0:1, 12:13])
    M = block_diag(M1, M2)
    Mi = np.linalg.inv(M)

    # Get the estimated parameter matrices
    Z = mod['design', :, :18]
    A = mod['transition', :18, :18]
    R = mod['selection', :18, :3]
    Q = block_diag(mod['state_cov', :2, :2], mod['state_cov', 12:13, 12:13])
    RQR = R @ Q @ R.T

    # Create the transformed matrices
    Z2 = Z @ Mi
    A2 = M @ A @ Mi
    Q2 = (M @ RQR @ M.T)

    # In this example, both endog_M and endog_Q are equal to the factors,
    # so we expect the loading matrix to look like, which can be confirmed
    # (up to some numerical precision) by printing Z2
    # (where the 1's, 2's, etc. are actually vectors of 1's and 2's, etc.)
    # [ 0 0   0 0   0 0   0 0   0 0  | 1  0  0  0  0 ]
    # [ 0 0   0 0   0 0   0 0   0 0  | 1  2  3  2  1 ]
    # [  I    0 0   0 0   0 0   0 0  | 0  0  0  0  0 ]
    # [ 1 1   0 0   0 0   0 0   0 0  | 0  0  0  0  0 ]
    # [ 1 1   2 2   3 3   2 2   1 1  | 0  0  0  0  0 ]
    print(Z2.round(2))
    # Confirm that for the first factor block this is approximately:
    # [  0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0.5 -0.2 ]
    # [  0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0  0    0.1  0.3 ]
    # and for the second factor block this is approximately
    # [  0  0  0  0  0  0.5 ]
    print(A2.round(2))
    # Confirm that this is approximately:
    # [ 1.5  0.2 ]
    # [ 0.2  0.5 ]
    # for the first factor block, and
    # [1.0]
    # for the second factor block (note: actually, this seems to be
    # about [0.3], underestimating this factor's error variance)
    print(Q2.round(2))
