#!/usr/bin/env python
# coding: utf-8

# DO NOT EDIT
# Autogenerated from the notebook ets.ipynb.
# Edit the notebook and then sync the output with this file.
#
# flake8: noqa
# DO NOT EDIT

# # ETS models
#
# The ETS models are a family of time series models with an underlying
# state space model consisting of a level component, a trend component (T),
# a seasonal component (S), and an error term (E).
#
# This notebook shows how they can be used with `statsmodels`. For a more
# thorough treatment we refer to [1], chapter 8 (free online resource), on
# which the implementation in statsmodels and the examples used in this
# notebook are based.
#
# `statsmodels` implements all combinations of:
# - additive and multiplicative error model
# - additive and multiplicative trend, possibly dampened
# - additive and multiplicative seasonality
#
# However, not all of these methods are stable. Refer to [1] and
# references therein for more info about model stability.
#
# [1] Hyndman, Rob J., and George Athanasopoulos. *Forecasting: principles
# and practice*, 3rd edition, OTexts, 2019. https://www.otexts.org/fpp3/7

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd

from statsmodels.tsa.exponential_smoothing.ets import ETSModel

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (12, 8)

# ## Simple exponential smoothing
#
# The simplest of the ETS models is also known as *simple exponential
# smoothing*. In ETS terms, it corresponds to the (A, N, N) model, that is,
# a model with additive errors, no trend, and no seasonality. The state
# space formulation of Holt's method is:
#
# \begin{align}
# y_{t} &= y_{t-1} + e_t\\
# l_{t} &= l_{t-1} + \alpha e_t\\
# \end{align}
#
# This state space formulation can be turned into a different formulation,
# a forecast and a smoothing equation (as can be done with all ETS models):
#
# \begin{align}
# \hat{y}_{t|t-1} &= l_{t-1}\\
# l_{t} &= \alpha y_{t-1} + (1 - \alpha) l_{t-1}
# \end{align}
#
# Here, $\hat{y}_{t|t-1}$ is the forecast/expectation of $y_t$ given the
# information of the previous step. In the simple exponential smoothing
# model, the forecast corresponds to the previous level. The second equation
# (smoothing equation) calculates the next level as weighted average of the
# previous level and the previous observation.

oildata = [
    111.0091,
    130.8284,
    141.2871,
    154.2278,
    162.7409,
    192.1665,
    240.7997,
    304.2174,
    384.0046,
    429.6622,
    359.3169,
    437.2519,
    468.4008,
    424.4353,
    487.9794,
    509.8284,
    506.3473,
    340.1842,
    240.2589,
    219.0328,
    172.0747,
    252.5901,
    221.0711,
    276.5188,
    271.1480,
    342.6186,
    428.3558,
    442.3946,
    432.7851,
    437.2497,
    437.2092,
    445.3641,
    453.1950,
    454.4096,
    422.3789,
    456.0371,
    440.3866,
    425.1944,
    486.2052,
    500.4291,
    521.2759,
    508.9476,
    488.8889,
    509.8706,
    456.7229,
    473.8166,
    525.9509,
    549.8338,
    542.3405,
]
oil = pd.Series(oildata, index=pd.date_range("1965", "2013", freq="AS"))
oil.plot()
plt.ylabel("Annual oil production in Saudi Arabia (Mt)")

# The plot above shows annual oil production in Saudi Arabia in million
# tonnes. The data are taken from the R package `fpp2` (companion package to
# prior version [1]).
# Below you can see how to fit a simple exponential smoothing model using
# statsmodels's ETS implementation to this data. Additionally, the fit using
# `forecast` in R is shown as comparison.

model = ETSModel(oil)
fit = model.fit(maxiter=10000)
oil.plot(label="data")
fit.fittedvalues.plot(label="statsmodels fit")
plt.ylabel("Annual oil production in Saudi Arabia (Mt)")

# obtained from R
params_R = [
    0.99989969, 0.11888177503085334, 0.80000197, 36.46466837, 34.72584983
]
yhat = model.smooth(params_R).fittedvalues
yhat.plot(label="R fit", linestyle="--")

plt.legend()

# By default the initial states are considered to be fitting parameters
# and are estimated by maximizing log-likelihood. It is possible to only use
# a heuristic for the initial values:

model_heuristic = ETSModel(oil, initialization_method="heuristic")
fit_heuristic = model_heuristic.fit()
oil.plot(label="data")
fit.fittedvalues.plot(label="estimated")
fit_heuristic.fittedvalues.plot(label="heuristic", linestyle="--")
plt.ylabel("Annual oil production in Saudi Arabia (Mt)")

# obtained from R
params = [
    0.99989969, 0.11888177503085334, 0.80000197, 36.46466837, 34.72584983
]
yhat = model.smooth(params).fittedvalues
yhat.plot(label="with R params", linestyle=":")

plt.legend()

# The fitted parameters and some other measures are shown using
# `fit.summary()`. Here we can see that the log-likelihood of the model
# using fitted initial states is fractionally lower than the one using a
# heuristic for the initial states.

print(fit.summary())

print(fit_heuristic.summary())

# ## Holt-Winters' seasonal method
#
# The exponential smoothing method can be modified to incorporate a trend
# and a seasonal component. In the additive Holt-Winters' method, the
# seasonal component is added to the rest. This model corresponds to the
# ETS(A, A, A) model, and has the following state space formulation:
#
# \begin{align}
# y_t &= l_{t-1} + b_{t-1} + s_{t-m} + e_t\\
# l_{t} &= l_{t-1} + b_{t-1} + \alpha e_t\\
# b_{t} &= b_{t-1} + \beta e_t\\
# s_{t} &= s_{t-m} + \gamma e_t
# \end{align}
#
#

austourists_data = [
    30.05251300,
    19.14849600,
    25.31769200,
    27.59143700,
    32.07645600,
    23.48796100,
    28.47594000,
    35.12375300,
    36.83848500,
    25.00701700,
    30.72223000,
    28.69375900,
    36.64098600,
    23.82460900,
    29.31168300,
    31.77030900,
    35.17787700,
    19.77524400,
    29.60175000,
    34.53884200,
    41.27359900,
    26.65586200,
    28.27985900,
    35.19115300,
    42.20566386,
    24.64917133,
    32.66733514,
    37.25735401,
    45.24246027,
    29.35048127,
    36.34420728,
    41.78208136,
    49.27659843,
    31.27540139,
    37.85062549,
    38.83704413,
    51.23690034,
    31.83855162,
    41.32342126,
    42.79900337,
    55.70835836,
    33.40714492,
    42.31663797,
    45.15712257,
    59.57607996,
    34.83733016,
    44.84168072,
    46.97124960,
    60.01903094,
    38.37117851,
    46.97586413,
    50.73379646,
    61.64687319,
    39.29956937,
    52.67120908,
    54.33231689,
    66.83435838,
    40.87118847,
    51.82853579,
    57.49190993,
    65.25146985,
    43.06120822,
    54.76075713,
    59.83447494,
    73.25702747,
    47.69662373,
    61.09776802,
    66.05576122,
]
index = pd.date_range("1999-03-01", "2015-12-01", freq="3MS")
austourists = pd.Series(austourists_data, index=index)
austourists.plot()
plt.ylabel("Australian Tourists")

# fit in statsmodels
model = ETSModel(
    austourists,
    error="add",
    trend="add",
    seasonal="add",
    damped_trend=True,
    seasonal_periods=4,
)
fit = model.fit()

# fit with R params
params_R = [
    0.35445427,
    0.03200749,
    0.39993387,
    0.97999997,
    24.01278357,
    0.97770147,
    1.76951063,
    -0.50735902,
    -6.61171798,
    5.34956637,
]
fit_R = model.smooth(params_R)

austourists.plot(label="data")
plt.ylabel("Australian Tourists")

fit.fittedvalues.plot(label="statsmodels fit")
fit_R.fittedvalues.plot(label="R fit", linestyle="--")
plt.legend()

print(fit.summary())

# ## Predictions
#
# The ETS model can also be used for predicting. There are several
# different methods available:
# - `forecast`: makes out of sample predictions
# - `predict`: in sample and out of sample predictions
# - `simulate`: runs simulations of the statespace model
# - `get_prediction`: in sample and out of sample predictions, as well as
# prediction intervals
#
# We can use them on our previously fitted model to predict from 2014 to
# 2020.

pred = fit.get_prediction(start="2014", end="2020")

df = pred.summary_frame(alpha=0.05)
df

# In this case the prediction intervals were calculated using an
# analytical formula. This is not available for all models. For these other
# models, prediction intervals are calculated by performing multiple
# simulations (1000 by default) and using the percentiles of the simulation
# results. This is done internally by the `get_prediction` method.
#
# We can also manually run simulations, e.g. to plot them. Since the data
# ranges until end of 2015, we have to simulate from the first quarter of
# 2016 to the first quarter of 2020, which means 17 steps.

simulated = fit.simulate(anchor="end", nsimulations=17, repetitions=100)

for i in range(simulated.shape[1]):
    simulated.iloc[:, i].plot(label="_", color="gray", alpha=0.1)
df["mean"].plot(label="mean prediction")
df["pi_lower"].plot(linestyle="--", color="tab:blue", label="95% interval")
df["pi_upper"].plot(linestyle="--", color="tab:blue", label="_")
pred.endog.plot(label="data")
plt.legend()

# In this case, we chose "end" as simulation anchor, which means that the
# first simulated value will be the first out of sample value. It is also
# possible to choose other anchor inside the sample.
