<|im_start|>system
You are a helpful AI assistant.<|im_end|>
<|im_start|>user
Explain the "prosecutor's fallacy" like I am five.<|im_end|>
<|im_start|>assistant
Imagine you have a bag of 100 marbles. You know that 90 of the marbles are blue and 10 are red.

You pick a marble out of the bag without looking, and it's blue.

The "prosecutor's fallacy" is when someone argues that the probability you picked a blue marble is 90% or very high. But that's wrong.

Once you've picked a marble, either it was blue (which it was) or red. The probabilities reset to either 100% or 0%.

The correct way to think about it is that before picking, there was a 90% chance of picking blue. But after picking, there is a 100% chance that you picked the marble you picked.

The "prosecutor's fallacy" gets its name because prosecutors sometimes commit this fallacy, arguing that the probability of someone's guilt is very high based on evidence, without taking into account that either they are guilty or not guilty, 100% or 0%, once the crime has occurred.<|im_end|>
<|im_start|>user
can you simplify that a bit? I'm only five.<|im_end|>
<|im_start|>assistant
The teacher caught Billy with something that was stolen from Bobby. No one knows for sure who stole but they do know Billy is holding it. The teacher assumes that Billy stole something because he is holding onto it. But this does not mean Billy stole it, he could have found it on the ground and just held onto it.<|im_end|>
<|im_start|>user
This is still a bit complicated, I'm five remember?<|im_end|>
<|im_start|>assistant
A court, in law, is a part of the government in which people come together to decide how to apply the country's laws to a specific situation, especially when there is an argument over how to apply the law. Some disagreements a court may decide are whether a person is guilty of a crime, who is the legal owner of property, or who the children of two divorced parents should live with. A court is usually in a special building called a courthouse.
A trial is where two people or two groups of people argue in a court. 
A prosecutor is a lawyer who argues in a court that the defendant should be found guilty of a crime. Prosecutors usually represent the government.
A lawyer may help the defendant in trial. acting as a criminal defense attorney. 
Evidence is something that is used to support an argument. It gives examples of why something is true. 

When there is a trial the prosecutor can think the person they are trying to get found guilty of a crime is guilty for the simple fact that  they were there when something bad happened or that they are to blame even if there only a bit of evidence.<|im_end|>