Expect northern lights on January 9-10
UPDATED JANUARY 9, 2014 AT 2100 UTC (3 P.M. CST): The anticipated coronal mass ejection from the X-flare on January 7 has now struck Earth. It arrived around 20:00 UTC or 2 p.m. CST. That makes tonight good for auroras at high latitudes. According to spaceweather.com:
Although the initial impact was weaker than expected, geomagnetic storms could still develop as Earth passes through the CME’s wake. NOAA forecasters are sticking by their prediction of a G3-class event on Jan. 9-10, which means high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.
The powerful flare on the sun on January 7, 2014 is what created conditions favorable to auroras. Will you see the northern lights at lower latitudes than usual tonight? Space weather forecasters were saying yes at first, but now they’re not so sure. As always with night sky phenomena, the best way to know is to look outside when it gets dark, and check again periodically throughout the night, especially if you live at a northerly latitude.
On January 8, The NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center wrote on its Facebook page:
CME on the way…Want to see the northern lights?
We have completed initial analysis of the CME [coronal mass ejection] associated with today’s X1 … solar flare from Region 1944 (center disk) and have developed a forecast for a geoeffective event. Despite the CME not coming directly at Earth, a partial impact to the magnetic field that protects Earth is expected and a resulting geomagnetic storm as high as G3 (strong) levels is forecast to begin early to midday (UTC) on Thursday, 9 January (just after midnight early morning hours EST). Approximately 130 days of G3 conditions occur every 11 years, so this isn’t something out of the ordinary – though it has been a while.
If you don’t mind getting up early and have few to no clouds in your area overnight, you may get a chance to see the aurora if you live in the northern lower 48.
There have been wonderful auroras seen already this year at high latitudes. We’re still hoping for some great pics from the January 9-10 display.
The movie above shows the January 7 X-class flare. An X-class flare is the most powerful kind of solar flare. It peaked at 1:32 p.m. EST (1832 UTC) on January 7. The movie, which is from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), shows light in the 1600 Angstrom wavelength showing both sunspots visible on the sun’s surface and the flare in the solar atmosphere. NOTE: This video loops 4 times.
Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation from the sun. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to affect our human bodies on the ground. However – when intense enough – they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel. This disrupts the radio signals for as long as the flare is ongoing, anywhere from minutes to hours.
To stay updated on how this event might impact Earth, visit NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center at https://spaceweather.gov.
Bottom line: Space weather forecasters are calling for strong auroras, or northern lights, on Thursday, January 9 through Friday morning, January 10, 2014. The CME, or coronal mass ejection has now arrived in Earth’s vicinity.
Nyota za Kaskazini za Januari 9-10 (UPDATE: Januari 9, 2014) - Mlipuko wa X-Flare wa Januari 7 uliokadiriwa sasa umegonga Dunia. Ilikuja karibu saa 20:00 UTC au saa 2 mchana CST. Hiyo hufanya usiku wa leo kuwa mzuri kwa auroras katika latitudo za juu. "Kulingana na Spaceweather.com, ""Hata ingawa athari ya awali ilikuwa dhaifu kuliko ilivyotarajiwa, dhoruba za geomagnetic bado zinaweza kuendeleza wakati Dunia inapopita kupitia mfuatano wa CME.""" Wataalamu wa hali ya hewa wa NOAA wamedai kuwa tukio la kiwango cha G3 litatokea Januari 9 na 10, na kwa hivyo watazamaji wa anga wa latitudo za juu wanapaswa kuwa macho kwa aurora. Mlipuko wa jua wa Januari 7, 2014 ulisababisha hali nzuri ya aurora. Je, utaona mwangaza wa kaskazini katika latitudo za chini kuliko kawaida usiku wa leo? Watabiri wa hali ya hewa ya angani walikuwa wakisema ndiyo mwanzoni, lakini sasa hawana uhakika. Kama ilivyo na matukio ya anga la usiku, njia bora ya kujua ni kuangalia nje wakati giza inapoingia, na kuangalia tena mara kwa mara wakati wa usiku, hasa kama unaishi katika latitudo ya kaskazini. "Kama ilivyoelezwa na kituo cha utabiri wa hali ya hewa ya anga cha NOAA, ""CME inakuja, unataka kuona mwangaza wa kaskazini?""" "Tumefanya uchambuzi wa awali wa CME (coronal mass ejection) inayohusiana na X1... solar flare ya leo kutoka eneo la 1944 (diski ya kati) na tumeendeleza utabiri wa tukio la geoeffective. """ "Hata hivyo, licha ya CME haikuja moja kwa moja kwenye Dunia, athari ya sehemu kwa uwanja wa sumaku unaolinda Dunia inatarajiwa na dhoruba ya geomagnetic kama ya juu kama viwango vya ""G3"" (nguvu) inatarajiwa kuanza mapema hadi mchana (UTC) Alhamisi, Januari 9, baada ya saa sita usiku wa asubuhi." Karibu siku 130 za hali ya G3 hutokea kila baada ya miaka 11, kwa hivyo hii sio kitu cha kawaida, ingawa imekuwa muda. Ikiwa unafikiria kuamka mapema na hakuna mawingu katika eneo lako usiku, unaweza kupata nafasi ya kuona aurora ikiwa unaishi kaskazini ya chini ya 48. Tayari mwaka huu, miale ya kioo yenye kupendeza imeonekana katika maeneo ya juu. Tunaendelea kutarajia picha nzuri kutoka kwenye maonyesho ya Januari 9-10. Picha ya juu inaonyesha mlipuko wa X-class wa Januari 7. Mlipuko wa darasa la X ndio aina yenye nguvu zaidi ya mlipuko wa jua. Ilikuwa na kilele cha juu saa 1:32 pm EST (1832 UTC) mnamo Januari 7. NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) inaonyesha mwangaza wa 1600 Angstrom, na kuonyesha madoa ya jua kwenye uso wa jua na mwangaza katika anga ya jua. Kumbuka: Video hii inaonekana mara nne. Mlipuko wa jua ni mlipuko wenye nguvu wa mnururisho kutoka kwa jua. Mionzi yenye kudhuru inayotokana na mlipuko wa umeme haiwezi kupita katika angahewa la Dunia na kuathiri miili yetu ya kibinadamu duniani. Hata hivyo <unk> wakati nguvu ya kutosha <unk> wanaweza kusumbua anga katika safu ambapo GPS na mawasiliano ishara kusafiri. Hii huzuia ishara za redio kwa muda mrefu kama mwangaza unaendelea, mahali popote kutoka dakika hadi saa. Ili kujua zaidi juu ya jinsi hali hii inaweza kuathiri Dunia, tembelea NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center katika www.spaceweather.gov. Kwa mujibu wa taarifa ya shirika la hali ya hewa duniani, hali ya hewa ya angani itasababisha mwangaza mkali wa aurora, au mwangaza wa kaskazini, kuanzia Alhamisi, Januari 9 hadi Ijumaa, Januari 10, 2014. CME, au coronal mass ejection sasa imefika katika ujirani wa Dunia.