World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report: Growing Risks and Emerging Responses
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Key Impact Points:
- Global Risks Report 2024 Highlights: The World Economic Forum’s report identifies climate change, demographic changes, technology, and geopolitics as major forces destabilizing the world, with severe impacts on lives through extreme weather, misinformation, cyberattacks, and socio-political polarization.
- Risk Mitigation and Preparation: The report emphasizes the varying impact and timelines of these risks, highlighting the need for mitigation and preparedness strategies, considering the compounded effects of interconnected risks.
- Focus on Top Risks and Solutions: Experts from the Forum discuss solutions to key risks like cyber insecurity, adverse AI outcomes, and extreme weather, stressing the need for emissions reduction, technological advancements, and global cooperation.
- Interconnectedness of Risks: The report illustrates how these risks are interrelated, with conflict exacerbating climate change, AI advancements leading to cyber vulnerabilities, and economic factors affecting global stability.
Climate change, demographic changes, technology and geopolitics. These are the changing ‘structural forces’ that are making the world less stable, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024.
The fallout is already affecting billions of lives. Extreme weather, AI-generated mis- and disinformation, a cost-of-living crisis, cyberattacks and socio-political polarization are already upon us.
The impact and timeline of each risk area is different, and so is our chance of mitigating them; or preparing for them. And when combined, risks are heightened — conflict harms the planet directly and prevents much-needed collaborative action on climate change. Advances in AI can lead to cyber vulnerabilities. High interest rates expose small- and medium- sized enterprises and heavily indebted countries to debt distress.
But while 2024’s risks paint a grim picture, their worst outcomes are not inevitable.
The World Economic Forum spoke with Forum experts about some of the top risks this year: cyber insecurity, adverse outcomes of AI and extreme weather events, to get their insights into the solutions and potential for mitigation. Here’s what they had to say.
Extreme weather events
Risk ranking: 2nd on the 2-year horizon and 1st on the 10-year horizon
Gill Einhorn, Head, Innovation and Transformation, Centre for Nature and Climate, World Economic Forum: “What is needed is a mindset that recognizes the full scale of the risk, while maintaining the optimism that we can and will respond in a way to avoid and mitigate the worst risks from occurring.”
Extreme weather events, critical change to Earth systems (a new entrant this year) and biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are the top three long-term risks featured in the Global Risks Report in 2024. They are interrelated and mutually reinforcing.
Abrupt and irreversible changes to Earth systems lead to more extreme weather events and risk collapses in ecosystems that are not well adapted to new climates.
The priority solution is faster emissions reduction and credible steps by all actors in our economic system to accelerate the speed and scale of a clean transition.
Reducing human emissions is the swiftest lever to postpone or avoid critical changes to Earth systems.
Once a climate tipping points has been reached, Earth’s natural systems reinforce changes and so delaying these for as long as possible will give our civilization time to develop appropriate adaptation and resilience strategies.
Here then lies the second priority for addressing systemic collapse from environmental risk: effectively adapting to coming changes. As sea levels rise, an ecosystem of interconnected solutions is needed to address threats to human life, landscapes and property.
And the solutions are already available: Innovations from African farmers, experienced in drought and flood management, will be crucial to quality of European crops. Grassroots innovation in managing the relocation of Arctic communities, who are the canaries in the coal mine of the climate disaster, can be harnessed to understand the policy safeguard and most effective approaches to handling forced migration from sea-level rise.
Much can be learned from nature’s forms, processes and ecosystems that have survived five previous mass extinctions to create more regenerative designs — known as biomimicry.
We must recognize the full scale of the risk, but maintain the optimism that we can and will respond in a way to avoid and mitigate the worst risks from occurring. We are responsible for the potential 6th Mass Extinction — but are also uniquely positioned to respond to avert its worst consequences.
Risk ranking: 4th on the 2-year horizon
Sean Doyle, Lead, Cybercrime Atlas Initiative, World Economic Forum: “Technological development is making the cyber equity gap more stark within and between countries. This makes everyone more vulnerable, even the best-protected organizations.“
Industries worldwide are on the brink of a technological transformation. Cybersecurity and cybercrime trends are driven by technological developments. There is a need for an understanding of the immediate, mid-term and long-term implications of these technologies for each organization’s cybersecurity posture.
Emerging technology can provide solutions to cyber insecurity, but indications are that developments will benefit the organizations and societies that are already most advanced and best protected from cyber threats.
The gap between organizations that are able to make themselves cyber-resilient and those that cannot is growing. For example, cyber attackers are adopting new technologies, such as Generative AI tools, to increase the number of markets that that they can target. Responding to this requires investment and the acquisition of talent that many organizations are either unable to meet or unaware of. Because of this, the proportion of organizations that can either protect themselves from cyber-attackers or recover from a cyberattack is diminishing.
This cyber equity gap will have a more pronounced social impact in 2024 due to a convergence between cybercrime and violent crime in some regions. For example, in August 2023, the UN reported that at least 220,000 people had been trafficked in Southeast Asia and been forced to work running online scams.
As organizations race to adopt new technologies, such as generative AI, they should not lose sight of the risks created by well-flagged near-future applications of other technologies such as quantum computing. Technological development is making the cyber equity gap more stark within and between countries. This makes everyone more vulnerable, even the best-protected organizations, and collaborative solutions that support those least able to secure themselves will be to the benefit of all.
Adverse outcomes of AI technologies
Risk ranking: 6th on the 10-year horizon
Benjamin Larsen, Lead, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, World Economic Forum: “Sustained dialogue lays the groundwork for greater cooperation and a potential reversal of digital fragmentation.“
In navigating the challenges posed by the rapid advancement of AI and technology, a series of problems and innovative solutions come to the forefront. The risk of market concentration and its potential impact on national security incentives necessitates a concerted effort to enhance global governance structures. Initiatives like the UN’s High-Level Advisory Group and the declaration from the UK AI Safety Summit, involving China, the US, the EU, Rwanda, South Korea, exemplify steps in the right direction. While a long-term objective is working towards harmonized regulatory regimes, these are important initial efforts aimed at greater stakeholder engagement at the international level.
The integration of AI in conflict decisions poses risks of unintended escalation and asymmetric empowerment of malicious actors. Normative frameworks, such as the Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of AI and Autonomy, launched in 2023, aim to guide states’ responsible development and deployment of military AI. Additionally, collaboration on AI and cyberwarfare is seen as essential to address these risks effectively.
The politicization of AI supply chains requires a return to constructive diplomacy and multilateral cooperation. Recent discussions between President Biden and President Xi, acknowledging the risks associated with advanced AI systems, signal a growing global recognition of the need for responsible management. While not an immediate solution to geopolitical competition, sustained dialogue lays the groundwork for greater cooperation and a potential reversal of digital fragmentation.
"Tangazo la ""Tatizo la Ulimwenguni la 2024: Hatari zinazokua na Majibu yanayotokea"" la Mkutano wa Kiuchumi wa Dunia linaelezea mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, mabadiliko ya idadi ya watu, teknolojia na jiopolitiki kama nguvu kuu zinazosababisha kutokuwa na utulivu ulimwenguni, na athari kubwa kwa maisha kupitia hali ya hewa kali, habari zisizo za kweli, mashambulizi ya mtandao na polarization ya kijamii." - Uharibifu wa hatari na kujitayarisha: Ripoti inasisitiza athari tofauti na ratiba za hatari hizi, ikikazia hitaji la mikakati ya kupunguza na kujitayarisha, ikizingatia athari za mchanganyiko wa hatari zilizounganishwa. Wataalam kutoka Mkutano wa Majadiliano wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa (FOMC) wanajadili suluhisho kwa hatari kuu kama vile ukosefu wa usalama wa mtandao, matokeo mabaya ya AI, na hali mbaya ya hewa, wakisisitiza hitaji la kupunguza uzalishaji, maendeleo ya kiteknolojia, na ushirikiano wa kimataifa. Ripoti hiyo inaonyesha jinsi hatari hizi zinavyohusiana, na migogoro inayozidisha mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, maendeleo ya AI yanayosababisha udhaifu wa mtandao, na sababu za kiuchumi zinazoathiri utulivu wa ulimwengu. Mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, mabadiliko ya idadi ya watu, teknolojia na geopolitics. "Hii ni ""nguvu za muundo"" zinazobadilika ambazo zinafanya ulimwengu usiwe thabiti, kulingana na Ripoti ya Hatari za Ulimwenguni ya Mkutano wa Kiuchumi wa Ulimwenguni wa 2024." Madhara hayo tayari yanaathiri maisha ya mabilioni ya watu. Hali ya hewa kali, habari bandia na zisizo za kweli zinazozalishwa na AI, mgogoro wa gharama za maisha, mashambulizi ya mtandao na polarization ya kijamii na kisiasa tayari ziko juu yetu. Athari na ratiba ya kila eneo la hatari ni tofauti, na hivyo ni nafasi yetu ya kupunguza yao; au kujitayarisha kwa ajili yao. Na wakati wa pamoja, hatari huongezeka <unk> mgogoro huumiza sayari moja kwa moja na huzuia hatua ya ushirikiano inayohitajika sana juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Maendeleo katika AI yanaweza kusababisha udhaifu wa mtandao. Viwango vya juu vya riba huweka biashara ndogo na za kati na nchi zenye madeni makubwa katika hali ya shida ya madeni. Lakini wakati hatari za 2024 zinachora picha mbaya, matokeo yao mabaya hayaepukiki. Mkutano wa Kiuchumi wa Dunia (WEF) umezungumza na wataalam wa Mkutano wa Kiuchumi wa Dunia (WEF) juu ya baadhi ya hatari kuu mwaka huu: ukosefu wa usalama wa mtandao, matokeo mabaya ya AI na matukio ya hali ya hewa kali, kupata maoni yao juu ya suluhisho na uwezekano wa kupunguza. Hapa ni nini walikuwa na kusema. "Gill Einhorn, Mkurugenzi wa Innovation na Transformation, Kituo cha Asili na Hali ya Hewa, Forum ya Kiuchumi ya Dunia: ""Kile kinachohitajika ni mtazamo ambao unatambua kiwango kamili cha hatari, wakati wa kudumisha matumaini kwamba tunaweza na tutakabiliana kwa njia ya kuepuka na kupunguza hatari mbaya zaidi kutoka kwa kutokea. "" - Ripoti ya Hatari za Ulimwenguni." Zina uhusiano na zinaimarishana. Mabadiliko ya ghafla na ya kutoweza kubadilika kwa mifumo ya Dunia husababisha matukio ya hali ya hewa kali zaidi na hatari ya kuanguka katika mifumo ya ikolojia ambayo haijabadilika vizuri kwa hali ya hewa mpya. Suluhisho la kipaumbele ni kupunguza uzalishaji wa gesi na hatua za kuaminika na watendaji wote katika mfumo wetu wa kiuchumi ili kuharakisha kasi na kiwango cha mabadiliko safi. Kupunguza uzalishaji wa binadamu ni lever ya haraka zaidi ya kuahirisha au kuepuka mabadiliko muhimu kwa mifumo ya Dunia. Mara baada ya hatua za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kufikiwa, mifumo ya asili ya Dunia huimarisha mabadiliko na hivyo kuchelewesha haya kwa muda mrefu iwezekanavyo itawapa ustaarabu wetu wakati wa kuendeleza mikakati sahihi ya kukabiliana na upinzani. Hapa basi iko kipaumbele cha pili kwa kushughulikia kuanguka kwa mfumo kutoka kwa hatari ya mazingira: kurekebisha kwa ufanisi mabadiliko yanayokuja. Kwa kuongezeka kwa viwango vya bahari, mfumo wa ikolojia wa suluhisho zilizounganishwa zinahitajika kukabiliana na vitisho kwa maisha ya binadamu, mandhari na mali. """Uvumbuzi wa wakulima wa Afrika, wenye uzoefu katika usimamizi wa ukame na mafuriko, utakuwa muhimu kwa ubora wa mazao ya Ulaya." Ubunifu wa msingi katika kusimamia uhamisho wa jamii za Arctic, ambao ni canaries katika mgodi wa makaa ya mawe wa janga la hali ya hewa, unaweza kutumiwa kuelewa ulinzi wa sera na mbinu bora zaidi za kushughulikia uhamiaji wa kulazimishwa kutoka kwa kuongezeka kwa kiwango cha bahari. Mengi yanaweza kujifunza kutoka kwa maumbo ya asili, michakato na mifumo ya ikolojia ambayo imeokoka maangamizi matano ya awali ya wingi ili kuunda miundo ya kurudisha upya zaidi - inayojulikana kama biomimicry. "Tunapaswa kutambua kiwango kamili cha hatari, lakini kudumisha matumaini kwamba tunaweza na tutajibu kwa njia ya kuepuka na kupunguza hatari mbaya zaidi kutoka kwa kutokea. """ """Tunawajibika kwa uwezekano wa kutoweka kwa wingi wa sita, lakini pia tuko katika nafasi ya kipekee ya kujibu ili kuzuia matokeo yake mabaya zaidi." "Sean Doyle, kiongozi wa mpango wa ""Cybercrime Atlas Initiative"" wa Mkutano wa Kiuchumi wa Dunia, alisema: ""Uendelezaji wa kiteknolojia unafanya pengo la usawa wa mtandao kuwa kubwa zaidi ndani na kati ya nchi." Hii inafanya kila mtu kuwa dhaifu zaidi, hata mashirika yaliyohifadhiwa vizuri zaidi. Viwanda ulimwenguni kote viko kwenye ukingo wa mabadiliko ya kiteknolojia. Usalama wa mtandao na mwenendo wa uhalifu wa mtandao unaendeshwa na maendeleo ya kiteknolojia. Kuna haja ya uelewa wa athari za haraka, za kati na za muda mrefu za teknolojia hizi kwa msimamo wa usalama wa mtandao wa kila shirika. Teknolojia mpya inaweza kutoa suluhisho la ukosefu wa usalama wa mtandao, lakini dalili zinaonyesha kuwa maendeleo yatasaidia mashirika na jamii ambazo tayari ni za hali ya juu na zinalindwa vizuri kutoka kwa vitisho vya mtandao. Pengo kati ya mashirika ambayo yana uwezo wa kujifanya kuwa na nguvu za mtandao na wale ambao hawawezi ni kuongezeka. Kwa mfano, washambuliaji wa mtandao wanachukua teknolojia mpya, kama vile zana za Generative AI, ili kuongeza idadi ya masoko ambayo wanaweza kulenga. Ili kukabiliana na hali hii inahitaji uwekezaji na upatikanaji wa vipaji ambavyo mashirika mengi hayawezi kukidhi au hayajui. Kwa sababu hii, uwiano wa mashirika ambayo yanaweza kujilinda kutoka kwa washambuliaji wa mtandao au kupona kutoka kwa shambulio la mtandao inapungua. """Kutofauti hii ya usawa wa mtandao itakuwa na athari kubwa ya kijamii katika 2024 kutokana na kuungana kati ya uhalifu wa mtandao na uhalifu wa vurugu katika maeneo fulani." Kwa mfano, mnamo Agosti 2020, Umoja wa Mataifa uliripoti kuwa angalau watu 220,000 walikuwa wamehamishwa katika Asia ya Kusini-Mashariki na kulazimishwa kufanya kazi kuendesha udanganyifu wa mtandaoni. "Wakati mashirika yanaposhindana kupitisha teknolojia mpya, kama vile AI ya kizazi, haipaswi kupoteza mtazamo wa hatari zinazozalishwa na matumizi ya karibu ya siku zijazo ya teknolojia nyingine kama vile ""quantum computing.""" Maendeleo ya kiteknolojia yanafanya pengo la usawa wa mtandao kuwa kubwa zaidi ndani na kati ya nchi. Hii inafanya kila mtu kuwa dhaifu zaidi, hata mashirika yaliyohifadhiwa zaidi, na suluhisho la ushirikiano ambalo linaunga mkono wale ambao hawawezi kujilinda wenyewe litakuwa kwa faida ya wote. "Benjamin Larsen, kiongozi wa AI na kujifunza mashine, Forum ya Kiuchumi ya Dunia: ""Mazungumzo ya kudumu huweka msingi wa ushirikiano mkubwa na uwezekano wa kugeuza mgawanyiko wa dijiti.""" Hatari ya mkusanyiko wa soko na athari yake ya uwezekano juu ya motisha za usalama wa kitaifa inahitaji juhudi za pamoja za kuboresha miundo ya utawala wa kimataifa. "Mapendekezo kama vile ""High-Level Advisory Group"" ya Umoja wa Mataifa na taarifa kutoka kwa Mkutano wa Usalama wa AI wa Uingereza, unaohusisha China, Marekani, EU, Rwanda, Korea Kusini, zinaonyesha hatua katika mwelekeo sahihi." Wakati lengo la muda mrefu ni kufanya kazi kuelekea mifumo ya udhibiti iliyopangwa, hizi ni juhudi muhimu za awali zinazolenga ushiriki mkubwa wa wadau katika ngazi ya kimataifa. Kuunganisha AI katika maamuzi ya migogoro kunaweka hatari ya kuongezeka kwa makusudi na kuwezesha asymmetric ya watendaji wa uovu. Mfumo wa kisheria, kama vile Azimio la Kisiasa juu ya Matumizi ya Kijeshi ya AI na Uhuru, iliyozinduliwa mnamo 2023, inakusudia kuongoza maendeleo ya serikali na utekelezaji wa kijeshi wa AI. Kwa kuongezea, ushirikiano juu ya AI na vita vya mtandao unaonekana kuwa muhimu kushughulikia hatari hizi kwa ufanisi. """Kupunguza ushawishi wa kisiasa wa minyororo ya usambazaji wa AI inahitaji kurudi kwa diplomasia ya kujenga na ushirikiano wa pande nyingi." Mazungumzo ya hivi karibuni kati ya Rais Biden na Rais Xi, kukiri hatari zinazohusiana na mifumo ya hali ya juu ya AI, yanaonyesha utambuzi wa kuongezeka kwa ulimwengu wa hitaji la usimamizi wa uwajibikaji. Ingawa si suluhisho la haraka kwa ushindani wa kijiografia, mazungumzo ya kudumu huweka msingi wa ushirikiano mkubwa na uwezekano wa kubadilisha mgawanyiko wa dijiti.