The green transition has made big waves for quite some time now. With the volatility of the green energy sources, the lack of infrastructure at present to support them, and the potential green energy storage problems, to name just a few of the problems green energy is facing, is the green energy transition a pipe dream and if not, in what timeframe can we expect it?
Dr Nakhle: The energy transition is happening and it is not the first time the world has transitioned from the dominance of one fuel to another. However, unlike previous transitions, it is being pushed by changes in preference and not as a result of an industrial revolution for instance (as was the case with coal) or competitive advantage of one fuel over another (as was the case with oil), and that by itself can make it more challenging than previous transitions.
Today, the share of green energy – primarily renewable energy (e.g. solar and wind) in the world’s primary energy mix has been increasing and quite rapidly. However, this is happening from a low base. In 2021, modern renewable energy met 7 percent of the world’s primary energy; hydropower provided an equal share and nuclear 4 percent, but 82 percent is still coming from fossil fuels – that is oil (31 percent), coal (27 percent) and natural gas (24 percent). In this respect, we still have a long way to go for green energy to overtake fossil fuels and for the current energy transition to properly blossom. Arguing otherwise may well be a pipe dream.
How green is the green energy?
Dr Nakhle: We need to agree on what is ‘green’ energy. If it is just about the greenhouse gases emitted during the generation of electricity, then nuclear energy would take the top spot. But nuclear power is highly controversial because of the concerning environmental footprint – from the mining of uranium for instance to storing nuclear waste which remains active for hundreds of years. The mining of minerals and metals used to produce solar panels and wind turbines also has a notable environmental footprint. There are 50 shades of green!
The popularity of electric vehicles is almost unmatched by anything having “green” and “future” in its name. Is all the hype justifiable?
Dr Nakhle: EVs are increasingly popular but their popularity is concentrated in the developed rich economies, though China is the exception in the developing economies. EVs have the potential to end the dominance of oil in the transport sector but they are not quite green. Again, think of the mining of metals and minerals used to produce the batteries, and then the disposal of batteries. Also, one has to look at the source of electricity to charge EVs – is it generated entirely by green energy or by fossil fuels? Then there is an ethical dimension, whereby EVs are a luxury that the majority of people around the world cannot afford, not only because of the cost but also because of lack of access to reliable electricity, and in this respect, they don’t quite meet the basic feature of a ‘just energy transition’ which is ‘leave no one behind’.
What is the future of energy in the short to mid-term? Is it the small modular reactors or green and blue hydrogen or taking a turn back to old technology with huge fixed long-term investment projects or something else entirely?
Dr Nakhle: In the short to mid-term, the world’s primary energy mix is unlikely to look drastically different from what we have today. Technologies such as SMRs and green/blue hydrogen are promising but they are either yet to be proven or their application on a wide commercial scale is yet to happen.
Evolution of the world's energy mix
Data Sources: Our World in Data (based on Vaclav Smil), 2017; BP Statistical Review, 2022
Why do we see nuclear phase-outs and general opposition to nuclear power in some of the developed world?
Dr Nakhle: Nuclear power is probably the most controversial source of energy. On the one hand, it can generate virtually carbon-free electricity at scale, but on the other hand, it comes with a long list of concerns including safety and security, nuclear waste, and major upfront capital requirement. Those concerns have negatively affected the public acceptance of nuclear power, which saw its share of the world’s primary mix peaking in the 1990s and struggling to regain share since.
What role does Germany’s energy policy play in the current energy disaster facing the European Union?
Dr Nakhle: Germany is the largest economy in the EU and the European country with the biggest dependence on Russian energy supplies among its peers – a dependence that has increased until recently, unlike the overall trend in the EU. In 2021, for instance, more than half of Germany’s gas supply came from Russia, and Germany is Russia’s largest gas customer in the EU, accounting for nearly 53 percent of its exports to the Union. Russia’s exports to the EU are primarily by pipeline, with two major pipelines Nord Stream 1 (under the Baltic Sea to Germany) and Yamal (to Poland and Germany via Belarus) crossing the German territory, in addition to Nord Stream 2, a replica of Nord Stream 1 (both in terms of route and capacity). In that respect, one can argue that through Germany, Russia maintained a strong grip on the European gas market in particular, as Germany pursued its own economic interests.
However, the ‘special’ long-standing relationship between Germany and Russia has been broken following the war in Ukraine and we have seen Germany taking an unusually tough stance on Russia, starting with canceling the certification of Nord Stream 2 to openly describing Russia as an unreliable supplier and supporting EU sanctions on Russia.
As gas to the EU is shot down from the east, can the EU rely on North America for its LNG needs? Moreover, is it only a question of politics and energy availability or infrastructure and investment? After all, the energy has to reach Central and Eastern Europe somehow, doesn’t it?
Dr Nakhle: The EU should not rely on any single supplier irrespective of where the supplies are coming from. After all the basic pillar of energy security is diversity and diversity alone. North American LNG has surely helped in reducing the impact of the loss of Russian gas but so has Norwegian gas as well as gas coming from North Africa and the Middle East, among others. The EU should support the expansion of its gas import infrastructure while sending a consistent signal to investors and gas exporters alike that their market will be secured for years to come, and not just that their gas is wanted only as a ‘temporary’ solution to help the EU go through the crisis this winter.
Finally, although not directly related to the general topic of today’s conversation, I would like to end the interview with this: How to find freedom in an unfree world?
Dr Nakhle: Speak honestly, speak loudly, speak constantly, support like-minded friends, and be patient. The great castles of suppression will sooner or later be undermined.
“Germany’s scramble to revamp its energy policy“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Oct 2022
“Thatcher’s energy plan was derailed – now we are paying a gigantic price“, Lord Howell, Sep 2022
“Energy policy confusion“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Aug 2022
“How did Europe arrive to the current energy crisis?“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Oct 2022
“European gas crunch, African supply and the energy transition“, Dr Carole Nakhle, Sep 2022
Mabadiliko ya kijani yametokeza mawimbi makubwa kwa muda mrefu sasa. Kwa sababu ya kutoelewana kwa vyanzo vya nishati ya kijani, ukosefu wa miundombinu ya kuunga mkono, na uwezekano wa matatizo ya kuhifadhi nishati ya kijani, kwa jina tu ya matatizo ya nishati ya kijani inakabiliwa, ni mabadiliko ya nishati ya kijani ni ndoto ya bomba na kama si, katika muda gani tunaweza kutarajia? "Mwanamke Nakhle alisema: ""Mabadiliko ya nishati yanaendelea na si mara ya kwanza kwa dunia kuhamia kutoka kwa udhibiti wa mafuta moja hadi nyingine." Hata hivyo, tofauti na mabadiliko ya awali, ni kusukumwa na mabadiliko katika upendeleo na si kama matokeo ya mapinduzi ya viwanda kwa mfano (kama ilivyokuwa na makaa ya mawe) au faida ya ushindani wa mafuta juu ya mwingine (kama ilivyokuwa na mafuta), na kwamba yenyewe inaweza kufanya changamoto zaidi kuliko mabadiliko ya awali. Leo, sehemu ya nishati ya kijani <unk> hasa nishati mbadala (kwa mfano. nishati ya jua na upepo) katika mchanganyiko wa nishati ya msingi ya dunia imekuwa ikiongezeka na kwa kasi sana. Hata hivyo, hili linatokea kutoka chini. Nishati ya kisasa ya mbadala ilipata asilimia 7 ya nishati ya msingi ya ulimwengu; umeme wa maji ulitoa sehemu sawa na nyuklia asilimia 4, lakini asilimia 82 bado inakuja kutoka kwa mafuta ya mafuta (asilimia 31), makaa ya mawe (asilimia 27) na gesi asilia (asilimia 24). Katika suala hili, bado tuna njia ndefu ya kwenda kwa nishati ya kijani ili kukamata mafuta ya mafuta na kwa mabadiliko ya sasa ya nishati ili kufanikiwa vizuri. Huenda kusema kinyume chake kukawa ndoto tu. Jinsi ya kijani ni nishati ya kijani? Dr Nakhle: Tunahitaji kukubaliana juu ya nini ni "kijani" nishati. Ikiwa ni kuhusu gesi za chafu zinazotolewa wakati wa uzalishaji wa umeme, basi nishati ya nyuklia ingechukua nafasi ya juu. Lakini nishati ya nyuklia ni utata sana kwa sababu ya wasiwasi juu ya alama ya mazingira - kutoka uchimbaji wa uranium kwa mfano kwa kuhifadhi taka za nyuklia ambayo inabaki hai kwa mamia ya miaka. Uchimbaji wa madini na metali zinazotumiwa kutengeneza paneli za jua na turbini za upepo pia una athari kubwa kwa mazingira. Kuna rangi 50 za kijani kibichi. Umaarufu wa magari ya umeme ni karibu unmatched na kitu chochote kuwa <unk> kijani<unk> na <unk> baadaye <unk> katika jina lake. Je, mambo yote hayo ya kuvutia yana haki? "E-Vehicoli ni maarufu sana, lakini inazidi kuwa maarufu katika nchi tajiri zilizositawi, ingawa China ni tofauti katika nchi zinazoendelea.""" Magari ya umeme yana uwezo wa kumaliza utawala wa mafuta katika sekta ya usafiri lakini si ya kijani kabisa. Kwa mfano, kuna uwezekano wa kutengeneza na kuondoa madini na madini ya chuma ambayo hutumiwa kutengeneza betri, na kuondoa madini na madini ya chuma. Pia, mtu lazima kuangalia chanzo cha umeme kwa malipo EVs <unk> ni kuzalishwa kabisa na nishati ya kijani au na mafuta ya mafuta? "Kisha kuna mwelekeo wa maadili, ambapo magari ya umeme ni anasa ambayo watu wengi duniani kote hawawezi kumudu, sio tu kwa sababu ya gharama lakini pia kwa sababu ya ukosefu wa upatikanaji wa umeme wa kuaminika, na kwa suala hili, haifanyi vizuri sifa ya msingi ya ""mabadiliko ya nishati ya haki"" ambayo ni ""haiachi mtu yeyote nyuma.""" Ni nini siku zijazo za nishati katika muda mfupi hadi wa kati? Je, ni reactors ndogo modular au kijani na bluu hidrojeni au kuchukua kugeuka nyuma kwa teknolojia ya zamani na kubwa imara miradi ya uwekezaji ya muda mrefu au kitu kingine kabisa? "Mwanamke Nakhle alisema: ""Katika muda mfupi hadi wa kati, mchanganyiko wa nishati ya msingi duniani hauwezi kuonekana tofauti sana na kile tunacho leo." Teknolojia kama vile SMRs na hidrojeni ya kijani kibichi na ya bluu ni ya kuahidi lakini bado haijathibitishwa au matumizi yake kwa kiwango kikubwa cha kibiashara bado haijatokea. "Kutoka kwa utafiti wa ""Ulimwengu wetu katika Takwimu"" (kwa msingi wa Vaclav Smil, 2017) na ""Uhakiki wa Takwimu za BP,"" 2021: Kwa nini tunaona hatua za nyuklia na upinzani wa jumla kwa nguvu za nyuklia katika baadhi ya nchi zilizoendelea?" Dr. Nakhle: Nishati ya nyuklia labda ni chanzo cha nishati chenye utata zaidi. Kwa upande mmoja, inaweza kuzalisha umeme bila kaboni kwa kiwango kikubwa, lakini kwa upande mwingine, inakuja na orodha ndefu ya wasiwasi ikiwa ni pamoja na usalama na usalama, taka za nyuklia, na mahitaji makubwa ya mtaji wa awali. "Hii ni kwa sababu ya wasiwasi wa umma juu ya nguvu za nyuklia, ambayo iliona sehemu yake ya mchanganyiko wa msingi wa ulimwengu ukifikia kilele katika miaka ya 1990 na kujaribu kupata tena sehemu yake tangu wakati huo. """ Sera ya nishati ya Ujerumani ina jukumu gani katika msiba wa nishati wa sasa unaokabili Umoja wa Ulaya? "Dr Nakhle alisema: ""Ujerumani ni uchumi mkubwa katika EU na nchi ya Ulaya na kutegemea zaidi ya Urusi nishati ya ugavi kati ya wenzao, utegemezi ambao umeongezeka hadi hivi karibuni, tofauti na mwelekeo wa jumla katika EU." Kwa mfano, zaidi ya nusu ya usambazaji wa gesi ya Ujerumani ilitoka Urusi, na Ujerumani ni mteja mkubwa wa gesi ya Urusi katika EU, ikisababisha karibu 53% ya mauzo yake ya nje kwa Umoja. Uuzaji wa Urusi kwa EU ni hasa kwa njia ya bomba, na mabomba mawili makubwa ya Nord Stream 1 (chini ya Bahari ya Baltic hadi Ujerumani) na Yamal (kwa Poland na Ujerumani kupitia Belarus) kuvuka eneo la Ujerumani, pamoja na Nord Stream 2, nakala ya Nord Stream 1 (wote kwa njia na uwezo). Katika suala hilo, mtu anaweza kusema kwamba kupitia Ujerumani, Urusi ilihifadhi udhibiti mkubwa juu ya soko la gesi la Ulaya, hasa wakati Ujerumani ilifuatilia maslahi yake ya kiuchumi. "Hata hivyo, uhusiano wa muda mrefu wa ""maalum"" kati ya Ujerumani na Urusi umevunjika kufuatia vita vya Ukraine na tumeona Ujerumani ikichukua msimamo mgumu sana dhidi ya Urusi, kuanzia na kufuta vyeti vya Nord Stream 2 hadi kuelezea wazi Urusi kama muuzaji asiyeaminika na kuunga mkono vikwazo vya EU dhidi ya Urusi." """Kama gesi ya EU inashambuliwa kutoka mashariki, EU inaweza kutegemea Amerika ya Kaskazini kwa mahitaji yake ya LNG?" Kwa kuongezea, ni suala la siasa na upatikanaji wa nishati tu au miundombinu na uwekezaji? Baada ya yote, nishati lazima kufikia Ulaya ya Kati na Mashariki kwa njia fulani, sivyo? """Mashirika ya EU hayahitaji kutegemea muuzaji mmoja, bila kujali ni wapi yanatoka." Baada ya yote nguzo ya msingi ya usalama wa nishati ni utofauti na utofauti peke yake. LNG ya Amerika Kaskazini imesaidia kupunguza athari za kupoteza gesi ya Urusi, lakini pia gesi ya Norway na gesi inayokuja kutoka Afrika Kaskazini na Mashariki ya Kati, kati ya mengine. """EU inapaswa kuunga mkono upanuzi wa miundombinu yake ya uagizaji wa gesi na wakati huo huo kutuma ishara thabiti kwa wawekezaji na wauzaji wa gesi sawa kwamba soko lao litahifadhiwa kwa miaka ijayo, na sio tu kwamba gesi yao inahitajika kama suluhisho la muda tu kusaidia EU kupitia mgogoro huu wa baridi." Mwishowe, ingawa haihusiani moja kwa moja na mada ya jumla ya mazungumzo ya leo, ningependa kumaliza mahojiano na hii: Jinsi ya kupata uhuru katika ulimwengu usio huru? Dr. Nakhle: Sema kwa uaminifu, sema kwa sauti kubwa, sema daima,unga mkono marafiki wenye mawazo sawa, na uwe na subira. Ngome kubwa za ukandamizaji zitaharibiwa mapema au baadaye. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika makala ya kwanza ya jarida la ""The Energy Crisis in Europe: How Europe Got to the Energy Crisis,"" ""The Energy Crisis in Europe: How Europe Got to the Energy Crisis,"" ""The Energy Crisis in Europe: How Europe Got to the Energy Crisis,"" ""The Energy Crisis in Europe: How Europe Got to the Energy Crisis,"" na ""The Energy Crisis in Europe: How Europe Got to the Energy Crisis,"" na ""The Energy Crisis in Europe: How Europe Got to the Energy Crisis,"" ilitumwa na Carole Nakhle."