Developing countries have one large need limiting their ability to progress and advance – access to affordable, reliable, and clean energy. After all, companies and societies cannot thrive sustainably without access to reasonable electricity and petroleum products. While this pressing issue happens in developing countries around the world, one prime example is Somaliland, where electricity and petroleum products are priced higher than those in their peer countries.
Somaliland has been a government for almost 30 years, after dissolving its union unilaterally with Somalia in 1991. Even with almost 30 years to work out some of the problems associated with being their own independent country, they still struggle in several ways. Both Somaliland and Somalia currently have one thing in common compared to their peers in the region – a lack of affordable energy.
Electricity prices are some of the highest across the world, peaking at a dollar per kilowatt-hour. By comparison, in Ethiopia, Kenya and the US the average cost is 1, 22, and 14 cents per kilowatt-hour respectively. For low-income families and small businesses, where the average household salary is less than $4 per day, the impact can prove crippling. For most, it is practically impossible to even consider paying for electricity.
In fact, despite Somaliland having substantial energy resources – primarily wind, solar, oil, and natural gas – consumption per capita is among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is due to the prohibitively high cost compared to the average income and an overall lack of local/diaspora investment. While primary energy demand in Africa in 2018 was just over 800 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe), demand in other parts of the world was much higher. Demand for oil alone was approximately 3.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in all of Africa, coming in higher than the 2.8 mb/d of the Middle East and 3.0 mb/d in China but lower than the 4.3 mb/d in India. The entire continent is actually expanding low levels of oil, but primarily that demand comes from countries that are much larger and more developed than Somaliland.
Like many other post-conflict zones, the energy mix in Somaliland is dictated by a short-term, localized outlook. Private operators set up diesel-based mini-grids with a small combination of solar power systems without batteries that require limited infrastructure investment. The operational overhead is much higher than renewables or gas-fired power plants, but the returns are immediate and more attractive. In comparison, the return on investment for a solar or wind plant is typically 10-12 years where a gas-fired power plant is 15-17 years.
Although these local energy sector operators are well established on their ‘turf,’ they tend to lack the capacity to implement large renewables and power plant installations that would significantly lower electricity prices for the citizens of Somaliland. Engaging with these local, well-connected operators and finding a way around their limitations is a central, practical consideration for any investor’s success, but it is not as simple as it might seem. In fact, it is exceedingly complex to overrun the two big players in the current market. The most significantly prohibitive issues that will deter any investor from entering this area are: limited regulation & oversight of the sector, monopoly distribution control, acute shortage of qualified staff, generation & distribution losses (up to 40%) due to poor infrastructure and collection, and finally high electricity tariffs due in part to energy company inefficiencies.
Though a complete switch to renewables would be the ideal answer to cover Somaliland’s energy needs, the real-world answer will be much more complicated when the country achieves its dream of becoming an industrialized tech hub for the region. A balance between natural gas-powered plants and renewables will mitigate the risk of peak power demands and national security co-storage issues, as well as increasing diversity and relieving concerns of energy security.
Often lost in energy transition messaging, and admittedly difficult to appreciate in the present industry downturn caused by oversupply and lost demand due to COVID-19, is the critical role of oil and gas both in fulfilling current energy needs and in facilitating future change. Proposals for a sustainable future rely on electricity, but there seems to be a disconnect between that ideal and the realities of power generation where fossil fuels still play the predominant role.
Africa still sources more than two-thirds of its electricity from fossil fuels, with natural gas adding nearly 5% of that total and growing with every new gas-fired power plant. Solar and wind account for less than 7% of overall domestic needs, and new solutions like hydrogen are nonexistent in the world’s second largest continent. Simply put, a solution like electric vehicles won’t change the demand for oil and gas, it just shifts the burner tip from the car’s engine to the power plant two counties over.
As populations and economies grow, energy appetites persist with fossil fuels playing a lead role. This may not be ideal, and this may not be true forever. However, in the current situation, unless the quality of life is sacrificed or energy storage technologies significantly develop capacities that will store energy to power large scale industries and communities, it is a present necessity. The transition process is gradual, and we can’t focus only on the horizon lest we lose sight of what’s right in front of us and what is necessary today to move towards that goal.
For Somaliland to realize accelerated economic and industrial development, local and diaspora investment will be needed to build self-sustaining projects unlocking the full potential of domestic energy resources. Increased access and affordability of energy will then attract credible international investment looking to help Somaliland expand and develop. It will be hard to sell the idea to international investors to invest in Somaliland’s energy sector due to Somaliland still not being recognized on the global stage and the infrastructure needing to be built from scratch– which is not currently an option due to demand issues that can only be solved by tripling access in the next five to ten years.
About the Author:
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle, and its staff.
Notice: This article by Somaliland Chronicle is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Under this license, all reprints and non-commercial distribution of this work is permitted.
Nchi zinazoendelea zina haja moja kubwa inayopunguza uwezo wao wa kuendeleza na kuendeleza - upatikanaji wa nishati ya bei nafuu, ya kuaminika, na safi. Baada ya yote, makampuni na jamii haziwezi kusitawi kwa kudumu bila upatikanaji wa umeme na bidhaa za petroli za busara. Ingawa suala hili la haraka linatokea katika nchi zinazoendelea duniani kote, mfano mmoja bora ni Somaliland, ambapo umeme na bidhaa za mafuta zina bei ya juu kuliko zile katika nchi zao za wenzao. Somaliland imekuwa na serikali kwa karibu miaka 30 baada ya kuachana na muungano wake na Somalia mwaka 1991. Hata baada ya miaka 30 ya kukabiliana na matatizo ya kuwa nchi huru, bado wanajitahidi kwa njia mbalimbali. Somaliland na Somalia kwa sasa zina kitu kimoja kwa pamoja ikilinganishwa na wenzao katika mkoa huo <unk> ukosefu wa nishati ya bei nafuu. Bei ya umeme ni moja ya ya juu zaidi duniani, ikifikia dola moja kwa kilowatt-saa. Kwa kulinganisha, nchini Ethiopia, Kenya na Marekani, gharama ya wastani ni senti 1, 22 na 14 kwa kila kilowatt-saa. Kwa familia zenye mapato ya chini na wafanyabiashara wadogo, ambapo mshahara wa wastani wa kaya ni chini ya $ 4 kwa siku, athari inaweza kuthibitika kuwa ya kulemaza. Kwa wengi, ni vigumu hata kufikiria kulipa umeme. Kwa kweli, licha ya Somaliland kuwa na rasilimali kubwa za nishati - hasa upepo, jua, mafuta, na gesi asilia - matumizi kwa kila mtu ni kati ya chini zaidi katika Afrika Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara. Hii ni kwa sababu ya gharama ya juu sana ikilinganishwa na mapato ya wastani na ukosefu wa jumla wa uwekezaji wa ndani au wa diaspora. Wakati mahitaji ya nishati ya msingi katika Afrika katika 2018 ilikuwa zaidi ya 800 milioni tani ya mafuta sawa (Mtoe), mahitaji katika sehemu nyingine za dunia ilikuwa kubwa zaidi. Mahitaji ya mafuta peke yake yalikuwa karibu maradufu ya mawe ya kila siku (mbd) katika Afrika nzima, ikiwa juu kuliko mbd 2.8 ya Mashariki ya Kati na mbd 3.0 ya China lakini chini kuliko mbd 4.3 ya India. Kwa kweli, nchi nyingi za bara la Afrika zinaendelea kupanua viwango vya mafuta, lakini mahitaji hayo yanatoka kwa nchi kubwa na zilizoendelea kuliko Somaliland. Kama maeneo mengine mengi ya baada ya mgogoro, mchanganyiko wa nishati katika Somaliland unaamriwa na mtazamo wa muda mfupi, wa ndani. Waendeshaji wa kibinafsi wanaanzisha gridi ndogo za dizeli na mchanganyiko mdogo wa mifumo ya nishati ya jua bila betri ambayo inahitaji uwekezaji mdogo wa miundombinu. Gharama za uendeshaji ni kubwa zaidi kuliko nishati mbadala au mitambo ya umeme inayotumia gesi, lakini mapato ni ya haraka na ya kuvutia zaidi. Kwa kulinganisha, faida ya uwekezaji kwa mitambo ya jua au upepo ni kawaida miaka 10-12 ambapo mitambo ya umeme ya gesi ni miaka 15-17. Ingawa waendeshaji hawa wa sekta ya nishati ya ndani wameanzishwa vizuri kwenye "mchanga" wao, wao huwa hawana uwezo wa kutekeleza mitambo mikubwa ya nishati mbadala na mitambo ya umeme ambayo ingepunguza kwa kiasi kikubwa bei ya umeme kwa wananchi wa Somaliland. Kuingiliana na waendeshaji hawa wa ndani, waliounganishwa vizuri na kupata njia ya kuzunguka mapungufu yao ni kuzingatia kuu, ya vitendo kwa mafanikio ya mwekezaji yeyote, lakini sio rahisi kama inavyoonekana. Kwa kweli, ni ngumu sana kushinda wachezaji wawili wakubwa katika soko la sasa. "Mazingira muhimu zaidi ambayo yatamzuia mwekezaji yeyote kuingia katika eneo hili ni: udhibiti mdogo na usimamizi wa sekta hiyo, udhibiti wa usambazaji wa monopoly, upungufu mkubwa wa wafanyakazi waliohitimu, hasara za uzalishaji na usambazaji (hadi 40%) kutokana na miundombinu duni na mkusanyiko, na hatimaye viwango vya juu vya umeme kwa sababu ya ukosefu wa ufanisi wa kampuni ya nishati. """ Ingawa kubadilisha kabisa kwa nishati mbadala itakuwa jibu bora la kukidhi mahitaji ya nishati ya Somaliland, jibu la ulimwengu halisi litakuwa ngumu zaidi wakati nchi itafikia ndoto yake ya kuwa kitovu cha teknolojia ya viwanda kwa mkoa. "Mafunzo ya nishati ya gesi ya asili na nishati mbadala itapunguza hatari ya mahitaji ya nguvu ya kilele na masuala ya usalama wa kitaifa ya kuhifadhi pamoja, pamoja na kuongeza utofauti na kupunguza wasiwasi wa usalama wa nishati. """ Mara nyingi hupoteza ujumbe wa mabadiliko ya nishati, na ni vigumu kuthamini katika kushuka kwa tasnia ya sasa inayosababishwa na ugavi wa ziada na mahitaji yaliyopotea kwa sababu ya COVID-19, ni jukumu muhimu la mafuta na gesi katika kutimiza mahitaji ya sasa ya nishati na kuwezesha mabadiliko ya baadaye. Mapendekezo ya siku zijazo endelevu hutegemea umeme, lakini kunaonekana kuwa na kutokuunganishwa kati ya ndoto hiyo na hali halisi ya uzalishaji wa umeme ambapo mafuta ya mafuta bado yana jukumu kubwa. Afrika bado inapata zaidi ya theluthi mbili ya umeme wake kutoka kwa mafuta ya makaa ya mawe, na gesi ya asili inaongeza karibu 5% ya jumla hiyo na kuongezeka kwa kila kituo kipya cha umeme cha gesi. Nishati ya jua na upepo inashughulikia chini ya 7% ya mahitaji ya jumla ya ndani, na suluhisho mpya kama hidrojeni hazipo katika bara la pili kwa ukubwa duniani. Kwa ufupi, suluhisho kama magari ya umeme hayatabadilisha mahitaji ya mafuta na gesi, inabadilisha tu ncha ya burner kutoka kwa injini ya gari hadi kwa kituo cha umeme kaunti mbili zaidi. Kadiri idadi ya watu na uchumi inavyoongezeka, hamu ya nishati inabaki na mafuta ya visukuku yakicheza jukumu kuu. Huenda hilo lisingekuwa jambo zuri, na huenda lisingekuwa kweli milele. Hata hivyo, katika hali ya sasa, isipokuwa ubora wa maisha ni dhabihu au teknolojia ya kuhifadhi nishati kwa kiasi kikubwa kuendeleza uwezo kwamba kuhifadhi nishati ya nguvu viwanda kubwa na jamii, ni lazima sasa. Utaratibu wa mpito ni wa hatua kwa hatua, na hatuwezi kuzingatia tu upeo wa macho ili tusipoteze kile kilicho mbele yetu na kile kinachohitajika leo kusonga kuelekea lengo hilo. Kwa ajili ya Somaliland kutambua maendeleo ya kiuchumi na viwanda, uwekezaji wa ndani na wa diaspora utahitajika kujenga miradi ya kujitegemea ya kufungua uwezo kamili wa rasilimali za nishati za ndani. Kuongezeka kwa upatikanaji na bei ya nishati kisha kutavutia uwekezaji wa kimataifa wenye kuaminika unaotafuta kusaidia Somaliland kupanua na kuendeleza. "Itaonekana kuwa ni vigumu kuuza wazo kwa wawekezaji wa kimataifa kuwekeza katika sekta ya nishati ya Somaliland kutokana na Somaliland bado haijatambuliwa katika hatua ya kimataifa na miundombinu inahitaji kujengwa kutoka mwanzo, ambayo kwa sasa si chaguo kutokana na masuala ya mahitaji ambayo yanaweza kutatuliwa tu kwa kuongeza mara tatu upatikanaji katika miaka mitano ijayo. """ Kuhusu mwandishi: Kutowajibika: Maoni yaliyoelezwa na waandishi hayaonyeshi maoni, maoni ya Somaliland Chronicle, na wafanyakazi wake. "Kumbuka: Makala hii ya Somaliland Chronicle ni leseni chini ya Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International License.""" Chini ya leseni hii, uchapishaji wote na usambazaji usio wa kibiashara wa kazi hii unaruhusiwa.