Food insecurity to worsen in 46 countries as ‘hunger hotspots’ exacerbated by conflict and extreme weather
Food insecurity will worsen in 20 “hunger hotspots” this year through a combination of rising conflict and climate change, putting a record 49mn people in 46 countries at risk of famine, key UN food agencies forecast.
Some 750,000 people were already experiencing “catastrophic” famine including starvation and acute malnutrition in Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen, the World Food Programme and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said in the latest report.
“Climate shocks will continue to drive acute hunger in the outlook period from June to September 2022 and we have entered a ‘new normal’ where frequent and recurring droughts, flooding, hurricanes and cyclones decimate farming, drive displacement and push millions to the brink in countries across the world,” the report said.
Conflict and organised violence were the main sources of food insecurity in Africa and the Middle East, specifically in northern Nigeria, central Sahel, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen and Syria. The war in Ukraine has also exacerbated the food crisis by driving up the price of agricultural commodities. Russia and Ukraine together account for around 30 per cent of the global wheat trade. New countries added to the “hotspot” list include Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Benin, Guinea and Cabo Verde.
La Niña, a climate pattern that changes ocean surface currents and brings cooler water up from the depths of the Pacific Ocean, has also exacerbated weather conditions.
The phenomenon has been present since late 2020 in a “twin” seasonal occurrence that has brought severe floods and below-average temperatures to Australia and drier than usual conditions to Africa. This has contributed to food shortages in some areas, including Afghanistan and eastern Africa.
Scientists are monitoring temperatures to determine whether the conditions are in place for a “triple-dip” La Niña, affecting a third season.
In Afghanistan, below-average harvests and the dire economic situation after the national upheaval last year has caused acute levels of hunger. In the central Ghor province, 20,000 people face catastrophic conditions due to limited humanitarian access. The FAO-WFP projects acute food insecurity numbers in the country to increase by 60 per cent from last year.
A drought alert for the Horn of Africa in April noted that rainfall across most of the region was not sufficient for planting crops. Some areas are experiencing an unprecedented fourth consecutive drought since late 2020, worsening food security in the arid and semi-arid parts of Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia. More than a million livestock have perished in Ethiopia’s south-eastern Somali region alone.
In Somalia, the 2022 rainfall season — known as Gu rains, monsoon-like conditions that occur from March to June — produced poorly distributed and below average levels. This follows three consecutive failed rainy seasons, resulting in below-average harvests, widespread livestock deaths and the climate and conflict-induced displacement of nearly 700,000 people.
Domestic food prices are approaching levels seen during the 2011 famine and are expected to continue rising, compounded by the reliance on disrupted wheat imports. The 2011 famine is thought to have killed a quarter of a million people.
“Somalia is facing famine conditions as a perfect storm of poor rain, skyrocketing food prices and huge funding shortfalls leaves almost 40% of Somalis on the brink, a joint FOA-OCHA-Unicef-WFP statement has warned.
"Usalama wa chakula utazidi kuwa mbaya katika nchi 46 kama ""mahali pa njaa"" iliyozidishwa na migogoro na hali mbaya ya hewa, ""Usalama wa chakula utazidi kuwa mbaya katika maeneo 20 ya njaa mwaka huu kupitia mchanganyiko wa mgogoro unaoongezeka na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, na kuweka watu milioni 49 katika nchi 46 katika hatari ya njaa, ""makampuni muhimu ya chakula ya Umoja wa Mataifa." Takriban watu 750,000 tayari wanakabiliwa na njaa kubwa, ikiwa ni pamoja na njaa na utapiamlo mkali nchini Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan Kusini na Yemen, Programu ya Chakula Duniani na Shirika la Chakula na Kilimo la Umoja wa Mataifa (FAO) limesema katika ripoti ya hivi karibuni. "Mashaka ya hali ya hewa itaendelea kuendesha njaa kali katika kipindi cha mtazamo kutoka Juni hadi Septemba 2022 na tumeingia ""kawaida mpya"" ambapo ukame wa mara kwa mara na wa mara kwa mara, mafuriko, vimbunga na vimbunga huangamiza kilimo, kuendesha uhamisho na kushinikiza mamilioni kwenye ukingo katika nchi kote ulimwenguni. """ "Mgogoro na vurugu zilizopangwa zilikuwa chanzo kikuu cha ukosefu wa usalama wa chakula katika Afrika na Mashariki ya Kati, hasa kaskazini mwa Nigeria, Sahel ya kati, mashariki mwa Jamhuri ya Kidemokrasia ya Kongo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan Kusini, Yemen na Syria.""" Vita vya Ukraine pia vimeongeza matatizo ya chakula kwa kuongeza bei ya bidhaa za kilimo. Urusi na Ukraine pamoja huchukua karibu asilimia 30 ya biashara ya ngano ya ulimwengu. Nchi mpya zilizoongezwa kwenye orodha ya "mahali pa moto" ni pamoja na Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Benin, Guinea na Cabo Verde. La Niña, hali ya hewa ambayo hubadilisha mawimbi ya bahari na kuleta maji baridi kutoka kwa kina cha Bahari ya Pasifiki, pia imezidisha hali ya hewa. "Hii ni ""mwisho wa mwaka"" ambao umesababisha mafuriko makubwa na joto la chini ya wastani nchini Australia na hali kavu kuliko kawaida Afrika." Jambo hilo limesababisha upungufu wa chakula katika maeneo fulani, kutia ndani Afghanistan na Afrika Mashariki. Wanasayansi wanafuatilia joto ili kuamua ikiwa hali ziko mahali pa "triple-dip" La Niña, kuathiri msimu wa tatu. Katika nchi hiyo, mavuno ya chini ya wastani na hali mbaya ya kiuchumi baada ya mapinduzi ya mwaka jana yamesababisha kiwango kikubwa cha njaa. Katika jimbo la Ghor, watu 20,000 wanakabiliwa na hali mbaya kwa sababu ya upatikanaji mdogo wa misaada ya kibinadamu. FAO na WFP zinakadiria kuwa idadi ya watu wanaokabiliwa na ukosefu mkubwa wa chakula nchini humo itaongezeka kwa asilimia 60 ikilinganishwa na mwaka jana. Taarifa ya ukame iliyotolewa Aprili kwa ajili ya eneo la Pembe ya Afrika ilisema kwamba mvua katika sehemu kubwa ya eneo hilo haitoshi kwa ajili ya kupanda mazao. Mkoa wa Kenya umekumbwa na ukame wa nne mfululizo tangu mwishoni mwa mwaka 2020, na kusababisha kuharibika kwa usalama wa chakula katika maeneo ya kavu na nusu kavu ya Kenya, kusini na mashariki mwa Ethiopia. Zaidi ya mifugo milioni moja imepotea katika eneo la kusini-mashariki mwa Somalia nchini Ethiopia pekee. Katika msimu wa mvua wa Somalia, unaojulikana kama mvua ya Gu, hali kama ya mvua ya mvua ambayo hutokea kuanzia Machi hadi Juni, imesababisha mvua iliyosambazwa vibaya na chini ya kiwango cha wastani. Hii ni baada ya misimu mitatu ya mvua iliyoshindwa, ikisababisha mavuno chini ya wastani, vifo vya mifugo na uhamisho wa karibu watu 700,000 unaosababishwa na hali ya hewa na migogoro. Bei ya chakula nchini humo inakaribia viwango vilivyoonekana wakati wa njaa ya mwaka 2011 na inatarajiwa kuendelea kuongezeka, ikizidiwa na utegemezi wa uagizaji wa ngano uliovurugwa. Katika mwaka wa 2011 njaa ilisababisha vifo vya watu milioni nne. Somalia inakabiliwa na hali ya njaa, huku mvua isiyokuwa na kiasi, kuongezeka kwa bei ya chakula na upungufu mkubwa wa fedha ukiwafanya karibu asilimia 40 ya Wasomali wawe hatarini, taarifa ya pamoja ya FAO, UNHCR, UNICEF na WFP imesema.