Italy joined the eurozone in 1999, with Prime Minister Massimo d’Alema of the “Democratic Left” party. This fateful participation, which entailed the complete loss of independent monetary policy, is undoubtedly the main cause of the disappointing performance of the Italian economy.
The country’s GDP currently stands at EUR 1.75 trillion euro and its growth rates are extremely anemics, reaching just 0.9%. Real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to reliable calculations, increased in the period 1969-1998, in which the country had its national currency, the lire, by 104%, while in the period 1999-2016, where the country had already adopted the euro, fell by 0.75%. On the other hand, in the period 1999-2016, Germany’s real per capita GDP grew by 26.1%, making the citizens of that country the most gainers among the main economies of the eurozone.
Italy, at the same time, has the third largest state debt in the world after the USA and Japan, and therefore its rescue is impossible, since it exceeds the capabilities of European states. The country’s debt, as a percentage of GDP, currently stands at 132% and in absolute figures to 2,336 trillion euro, while in 1999 it was 109,7%. So, one can easily notice a significant increase.
At the same time, since 1999, Italy’s steep downhill course in terms of development had begun. Fiat has ceased to dominate the European car market and the country has lost its leading position as a producer of white household appliances. Many factories were shut down and several large businesses have relocated to other countries. Millions, in addition, small and medium-sized enterprises, which based on the periodic devaluation of the currency, to offset the inadequacies of the Italian economic system, could no longer compete outside the Italian border. What are these inadequacies? Labor market problems, low public and private investment in development and research, high government bureaucracy, dysfunctional, costly and slow-moving justice system, high levels of corruption and tax evasion etc.
Unemployment is about 11% of the labor force, the fourth highest in the European Union after Greece, Spain and Cyprus. At the same time, unemployment among young people aged between 15 and 24, which, according to the latest statistics from the Istat statistical office, amounts to a very high percentage of 30.8%, reflects in the clearest way the deep economic and social crisis which sweeps as a hurricane the Mediterranean country of the European South.
Poverty has risen to its highest level since 2005. The latest Istat report has recorded 5 million people in absolute poverty in 2017. On a percentage basis, 6.9% of Italian households live in absolute poverty, ie in a situation where it is not possible to cover the minimum monthly expenditure for the acquisition of a basket of goods and services which, in the Italian context and for a family with certain characteristics, is considered necessary for a minimum acceptable standard of living.
At the same time Italy has the majority of bank branches per inhabitant across Europe, which is additionally characterized by a wrong business model, surviving only by interest and corporate loans. Thus, given that the interest rates in the eurozone are zero, banks are operating loss-making, having accumulated insecurities (red loans) that currently reach about 260 billion euros (15% of Italian GDP), of which much is lost.
The Italian economy, the third largest in the badly designed monetary union, looks like I would say schematically, with a tired horse, loaded with debts and red loans, which breaths with difficulty on the uphill, full of stones and puddles, of the Eurozone, which is an incredible rigid system, a space clogged with irons for 19 different countries in productivity, inflation, trade balance and technological progress.
Therefore, It should be understood that the eurozone is nothing else but a field of conflicting interests among the member countries that make up it. Thus, what is of great interest to Italy is not of interest in any case for Germany. However, the reconciliation of interests over the years of the common currency has proved to be impossible. This is because Germany as the first economic power has managed to rule and dominate, using the euro for its benefit, while at the same time the other countries instead of resisting and even colliding, bowing and obeying.
However, the cost of delaying Italy’s exit from the eurozone – which has so far prevented at least an apparent fear of the Italian political system for any short-term negative effects of exit – will ultimately prove to be far greater than the cost of rupture in the beginning of the economic crisis.
The recent decision by the coalition government of the Movement 5 stars M5S and Lega, formed in May 2018, to submit a budget for 2019 with a deficit of 2.4% of GDP is clearly in the right direction, because it is most important the reinforcement of the Italian economy by strengthening of domestic demand as well as the prosperity of the Italian people, and not Brussels’s strict fiscal regulations imposed by Germany and which do not allow it.
Italy must at last cease to retreat to Berlin’s commands and fear the rupture with the German eurozone because it is able to return to the lire and thus regain its political, economic and institutional sovereignty. Despite the current problems, it still has the second largest euro area industry after Germany and the fifth largest in the world, with participation 19% at GDP of the country. Italy produces from aircraft, cars, weapons, electronic systems up to perfumes, shoes and clothes. Italy also needs energy, that is cheap oil and cheap gas, which it does not have. But it could secure oil from its former colony, Libya, and gas from Gazprom. Thus, with low production costs and a flexible national currency, it would become extremely competitive.
To sum up, Italy, sailing like a shaken boat into the turbulent sea of the eurozone where blow powerful winds, will sink mathematically if its political leadership does not take, as long as it is still time, the groundbreaking and dynamic decision to return to its national coin.
Isidoros Karderinis was born in Athens in 1967. He is a novelist, poet and columnist. He has studied economics and has completed postgraduate studies in the tourism economy. Articles of his have been republished in newspapers, magazines and sites worldwide. His poems have been translated into English, French and Spanish and published in literary magazines and literary sections of newspapers. He has published seven poetry books and two novels. His books have been published in USA, Great Britain, Spain and Italy.
Italia ilijiunga na Eurozone mnamo 1999 na Waziri Mkuu Massimo D'Alema wa chama cha Democratic Left. Ushiriki huu wa bahati mbaya, ambao ulisababisha kupoteza kabisa sera huru ya fedha, bila shaka ni sababu kuu ya utendaji wa kukatisha tamaa wa uchumi wa Italia. Kwa sasa, Pato la Taifa la nchi hiyo linakadiriwa kuwa milioni 1.75 bilioni na kiwango cha ukuaji wake ni kidogo sana, kufikia asilimia 0.9 tu. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu za kuaminika, pato la ndani la mtu mmoja liliongezeka kwa asilimia 104 katika kipindi cha mwaka 1969-1998 wakati ambapo nchi ilikuwa na sarafu ya kitaifa, lira, wakati huo huo katika kipindi cha mwaka 1999-2016 wakati ambapo nchi ilikuwa tayari imepitisha sarafu ya euro, ilipungua kwa asilimia 0.75%. Katika kipindi cha mwaka 1999 hadi 2016, Pato la Taifa la Ujerumani liliongezeka kwa asilimia 26.1 na kuwafanya raia wake kuwa wenye faida kubwa zaidi kati ya uchumi wa eneo la euro. Italia ina deni la tatu kwa ukubwa duniani baada ya Marekani na Japan, na kwa hiyo kuokoa ni vigumu, kwa kuwa ni zaidi ya uwezo wa nchi za Ulaya. Kwa sasa, madeni ya nchi hiyo, kama asilimia ya Pato la Taifa, ni 132% na katika takwimu kamili ni € 2,336 bilioni, wakati katika 1999 ilikuwa 109,7%. Kwa hiyo, mtu aweza kuona kwa urahisi ongezeko kubwa. Tangu mwaka 1999, Italia imekuwa ikikabiliwa na mlipuko mkubwa wa maendeleo. Fiat imeacha kutawala soko la magari la Ulaya na nchi imepoteza nafasi yake ya kuongoza kama mtayarishaji wa vifaa vya nyumbani vya rangi nyeupe. Viwanda vingi vilifungwa na biashara kadhaa kubwa zimehamia nchi nyingine. Pia, mamilioni ya biashara ndogo na za kati, ambazo kwa kutegemea kupunguzwa kwa thamani ya sarafu mara kwa mara, ili kusawazisha ukosefu wa mfumo wa kiuchumi wa Italia, hazingeweza tena kushindana nje ya mpaka wa Italia. Ni nini visivyofaa hivyo? Matatizo ya soko la kazi, uwekezaji mdogo wa umma na binafsi katika maendeleo na utafiti, uburukraia wa juu wa serikali, mfumo wa haki usiofanya kazi, wa gharama kubwa na wa polepole, viwango vya juu vya ufisadi na uvujaji wa kodi, nk. Ukosefu wa kazi ni asilimia 11 ya idadi ya watu wanaofanya kazi, kiwango cha nne katika Umoja wa Ulaya baada ya Ugiriki, Hispania na Cyprus. "Uajiri wa vijana wenye umri wa miaka 15 hadi 24 ambao kulingana na takwimu za hivi karibuni za Istat ni asilimia kubwa sana ya 30.8%, unaonyesha waziwazi mgogoro mkubwa wa kiuchumi na kijamii ambao unaathiri nchi ya Mediterania ya Kusini mwa Ulaya. """ Umaskini umeongezeka kwa kiwango cha juu zaidi tangu 2005. Ripoti ya Istat ya mwaka 2017 iliripoti kuwa watu milioni 5 walikuwa katika hali ya umaskini wa hali ya juu. Kwa asilimia, 6.9% ya familia za Italia zinaishi katika umaskini wa hali ya juu, yaani, katika hali ambayo haiwezekani kufidia gharama za chini za kila mwezi kwa ajili ya ununuzi wa kikapu cha bidhaa na huduma ambazo, katika mazingira ya Italia na kwa familia yenye sifa fulani, zinachukuliwa kuwa muhimu kwa kiwango cha chini cha maisha kinachoweza kukubalika. Wakati huo huo Italia ina idadi kubwa ya matawi ya benki kwa kila mkaaji katika Ulaya, ambayo pia ina sifa ya mfano mbaya wa biashara, kuishi tu kwa riba na mikopo ya kampuni. Kwa hivyo, kwa kuzingatia kuwa viwango vya riba katika eneo la euro ni sifuri, benki zinafanya kazi kwa hasara, zikiwa na uhaba wa dhamana (mkopo mwekundu) ambao kwa sasa unafikia karibu euro bilioni 260 (15% ya Pato la Taifa la Italia), ambayo mengi yamepotea. Uchumi wa Italia, wa tatu kwa ukubwa katika muungano wa fedha uliobuniwa vibaya, unaonekana kama farasi aliyochoka, amebeba madeni na mikopo nyekundu, ambayo hupumua kwa shida juu ya mlima, kamili ya mawe na vidimbwi vya Eurozone, ambayo ni mfumo mgumu sana, nafasi iliyofungwa kwa chuma kwa nchi 19 tofauti katika uzalishaji, mfumuko wa bei, usawa wa biashara na maendeleo ya kiteknolojia. Kwa hiyo, ni lazima ieleweke kwamba eneo la euro si kitu kingine ila uwanja wa maslahi yanayopingana kati ya nchi wanachama zinazounda. Hivyo, kile ambacho ni cha kuvutia sana kwa Italia si cha kuvutia kwa Ujerumani kwa vyovyote vile. Hata hivyo, kupatana kwa maslahi kwa miaka ya sarafu ya kawaida kumethibitika kuwa haiwezekani. Hii ni kwa sababu Ujerumani kama nguvu ya kwanza ya kiuchumi imeweza kutawala na kutawala, kwa kutumia euro kwa faida yake, wakati wakati huo huo nchi nyingine badala ya kupinga na hata kugongana, kuinama na kutii. Hata hivyo, gharama ya kuchelewesha Italia kuondoka katika eneo la euro - ambayo hadi sasa imezuia angalau hofu ya mfumo wa kisiasa wa Italia kwa athari yoyote hasi ya muda mfupi ya kuondoka - hatimaye itathibitika kuwa kubwa zaidi kuliko gharama ya kuvunjika mwanzoni mwa mgogoro wa kiuchumi. """Uamuzi wa hivi karibuni wa serikali ya muungano wa harakati ya nyota tano (M5S) na Lega (Lega), iliyoundwa Mei 2018, kuwasilisha bajeti ya 2019 na upungufu wa 2.4% ya Pato la Taifa (GDP), ni wazi katika mwelekeo sahihi, kwa sababu ni muhimu zaidi kuimarisha uchumi wa Italia kwa kuimarisha mahitaji ya ndani na ustawi wa watu wa Italia, na sio kanuni kali za kifedha za Brussels zilizowekwa na Ujerumani na ambazo haziruhusu." Italia lazima hatimaye kuacha kurudi nyuma kwa amri za Berlin na kuogopa kuvunjika kwa eneo la euro la Ujerumani kwa sababu ina uwezo wa kurudi kwa lira na hivyo kupata uhuru wake wa kisiasa, kiuchumi na taasisi. Licha ya matatizo ya sasa, bado ina sekta ya pili kwa ukubwa katika eneo la euro baada ya Ujerumani na ya tano kwa ukubwa duniani, na ushiriki wa 19% katika Pato la Taifa. Italia inazalisha kutoka ndege, magari, silaha, mifumo ya elektroniki hadi manukato, viatu na nguo. Italia pia inahitaji nishati, yaani mafuta ya bei nafuu na gesi ya bei nafuu, ambayo haina. Lakini inaweza kupata mafuta kutoka koloni yake ya zamani, Libya, na gesi kutoka Gazprom. Hivyo, kwa gharama za chini za uzalishaji na sarafu ya kitaifa yenye kubadilika-badilika, ingekuwa yenye ushindani sana. Kwa kifupi, Italia, inayoendesha kama mashua iliyotetemeka katika bahari yenye msukosuko ya eneo la euro ambapo upepo mkali unapeperushwa, itazama kwa hesabu ikiwa uongozi wake wa kisiasa hautachukua, wakati bado bado, uamuzi wa kuanzisha na nguvu ya kurudi kwa sarafu yake ya kitaifa. Isidoros Karderinis alizaliwa Athene, Italia, mwaka 1967. Yeye ni mwandishi wa riwaya, mshairi na mwandishi wa safu. Amejifunza uchumi na amemaliza masomo ya shahada ya juu katika uchumi wa utalii. Makala zake zimechapishwa tena katika magazeti, majarida na tovuti ulimwenguni pote. Mashairi yake yametafsiriwa katika Kiingereza, Kifaransa na Kihispania na kuchapishwa katika majarida ya fasihi na sehemu za fasihi za magazeti. Amechapisha vitabu saba vya mashairi na riwaya mbili. Vitabu vyake vimechapishwa nchini Marekani, Uingereza, Hispania na Italia.