Like it or not, autonomous systems are going to play an increasing role in defence capabilities moving forward, across all domains and using a wide variety of automated systems. Autonomous aerial systems could soon be relied on heavily by defence programmes, from small, low cost drones, through to AI pilot systems.
Over the past twenty years, efforts have intensified to create artificial intelligence pilots for military use. Last month, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks revealed that the US military’s Replicator programme plans to deploy thousands of autonomous weapons systems, including autonomous unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), over the next 18 to 24 months. Although this programme is primarily focused on lower cost, ‘attritable systems’, that the Pentagon would be happy to sacrifice in return for achieving a mission’s objective.
Using autonomous pilots for fighter jets that can cost upwards of $100 million each, is quite another matter entirely. However, there are clear future advantages for doing this, including enhanced combat capabilities, speed of response to threats, strategic advantage over other militaries, and reduced risk to human pilots.
Automated systems, of course, have been used in commercial aviation for many years. Commercial autopilot systems ultimately give pilots more control and enhanced ability to respond to new demands in the air, whilst autothrottle systems help optimise both throttle control and fuel economy. The capabilities of autopilot systems have grown dramatically over the past decade, as better sensors have become available. A modern jet airliner can have tens of thousands of electronic sensors, collecting terabytes of data during a flight.
Air forces clearly have different requirements to airline fleets, but there are lessons to be learned from the commercial sector. Introducing new auto-pilot systems have many attendant risks, as was illustrated by Boeing’s introduction of the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) into commercial aircraft.
Military interest in AI-piloted planes began to grow in the 2010s, culminating in the US Air Force use of an AI algorithm to help co-pilot a successful test flight, of a Lockheed U-2 Dragon Lady, high altitude reconnaissance aircraft, in 2019. The ‘ARTUµ’ algorithm was developed by a small team of researchers at the Air Combat Command’s U-2 Federal Laboratory.
In 2020, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced that, in a simulated dogfighting competition run by its Air Combat Evolution (ACE) programme in an F-16 simulator, an AI model defeated an experienced F-16 fighter pilot.
Now things have begun to get even more interesting. DARPA revealed earlier this year that an AI model developed by ACE had successfully piloted a F-16 in flight. The AI pilot flew multiple flights in a specially modified F-16, over several days of tests at Edwards Air Force Base in California.
Notwithstanding successful tests such as these, it is still premature to announce the advent of autonomous AI combat pilots. Tests conducted to-date have all been carried out in controlled conditions and in real combat scenarios many different operational factors apply. We can expect to see an increasing sophistication of AI apps enter the cockpit in the near term, but fighter pilots shouldn’t worry about their jobs just yet.
This article first appeared in Armada International
Image credit: U.S. Air Force.
Kama au la, mifumo ya kujitegemea itacheza jukumu kubwa katika uwezo wa ulinzi unaosonga mbele, katika nyanja zote na kutumia mifumo mbalimbali ya kiotomatiki. "Mifumo ya ndege ya kujitegemea inaweza kutegemea sana katika mipango ya ulinzi, kutoka kwa ndege ndogo za gharama nafuu hadi mifumo ya majaribio ya AI. """ Katika miaka ishirini iliyopita, juhudi zimezidi kuongezeka za kuunda marubani wenye akili bandia kwa matumizi ya kijeshi. Naibu Waziri wa Ulinzi wa Marekani Kathleen Hicks ametoa taarifa kwamba jeshi la Marekani linapanga kuanzisha mfumo wa silaha za kujitegemea (UAS) katika kipindi cha miezi 18 hadi 24. Ingawa programu hii ni hasa ililenga chini ya gharama, "attrible mifumo", kwamba Pentagon itakuwa na furaha ya dhabihu kwa kubadilishana kwa kufikia lengo la ujumbe. """Kutumia marubani wa kujitegemea kwa ndege za kivita ambazo zinaweza kugharimu zaidi ya dola milioni 100 kila moja ni jambo jingine kabisa." Hata hivyo, kuna faida za wazi za kufanya hivyo, ikiwa ni pamoja na uwezo wa kupambana ulioboreshwa, kasi ya kujibu vitisho, faida ya kimkakati juu ya majeshi mengine, na kupunguza hatari kwa marubani wa binadamu. Bila shaka, mifumo ya kiotomatiki imetumiwa katika anga za kibiashara kwa miaka mingi. Mifumo ya kibiashara ya autopilot hatimaye huwapa marubani udhibiti zaidi na uwezo wa kuboresha kujibu mahitaji mapya hewani, wakati mifumo ya autothrottle husaidia kuboresha udhibiti wa throttle na uchumi wa mafuta. Uwezo wa mfumo wa kuendesha gari kwa njia ya moja kwa moja umekua sana katika muongo uliopita, kwa kuwa sensorer bora zimepatikana. Ndege ya kisasa ya ndege yaweza kuwa na makumi ya maelfu ya sensorer za elektroniki, zikikusanya terabytes za data wakati wa ndege. Kwa kweli, ndege za ndege zina mahitaji tofauti na meli za ndege, lakini kuna masomo ya kujifunza kutoka kwa sekta ya kibiashara. "Mfano wa mfumo huu ni ""Manouvering Characteristics Augmentation System"" (MCAS) ambayo Boeing imeweka kwenye ndege za kibiashara." "Mfano wa ndege za kijeshi zinazodhibitiwa na AI zilianza kukua katika miaka ya 2010, na kuishia katika matumizi ya Jeshi la Anga la Marekani ya algorithm ya AI kusaidia co-pilot ndege ya majaribio ya mafanikio ya Lockheed U-2 ""Dragon Lady"" ndege ya upelelezi wa urefu wa juu." Algorithm ya <unk>ARTUμ<unk> ilitengenezwa na timu ndogo ya watafiti katika Maabara ya Shirikisho ya U-2 ya Uongozi wa Mapigano ya Hewa. Mnamo mwaka 2020, Shirika la Utafiti wa Maendeleo ya Ulinzi la Marekani (DARPA) lilitangaza kwamba katika mashindano ya mbio za mbwa yaliyofanywa na programu yake ya Air Combat Evolution (ACE) katika simulator ya F-16, mfano wa AI ulishinda rubani mwenye uzoefu wa ndege ya F-16. Sasa mambo yameanza kuwa yenye kupendeza hata zaidi. DARPA ilifunua mapema mwaka huu kwamba mfano wa AI uliotengenezwa na ACE ulifanikiwa kuendesha ndege ya F-16 wakati wa kuruka. Ndege hiyo ya kipekee iliruka kwa ndege ya F-16 kwa siku kadhaa katika kituo cha jeshi la anga cha Edwards huko California. "Licha ya majaribio ya mafanikio kama haya, bado ni mapema kutangaza ujio wa marubani wa vita wa AI wa kujitegemea. """ Majaribio yaliyofanywa hadi sasa yote yamefanywa katika hali zilizodhibitiwa na katika matukio halisi ya mapigano mambo mengi tofauti ya uendeshaji yanatumika. Tunaweza kutarajia kuona kuongezeka kwa utaalam wa programu za AI kuingia kwenye cockpit katika muda mfupi, lakini marubani wa vita hawapaswi kuwa na wasiwasi juu ya kazi zao bado. Makala hii ilionekana kwanza katika Armada International Image credit: U.S. Air Force.