Precipitation and temperature will change in future climates, presenting new challenges and opportunities for Norwegian hydropower. We anticipate an increase in the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme events such as floods, droughts, and high water temperatures. The research project ReAdapt aims to study how we can adapt the hydropower system to a new climate focusing on extreme events. The goal is to maintain or increase hydropower production while preserving biodiversity in well-functioning ecosystems.
Freshwater ecosystems are adapted to historical climate conditions. Hydropower has a recognised impact on freshwater ecosystems, but we have good knowledge of both the effects and mitigation measures. Increased frequency and severity of extreme events may worsen the conditions, but river regulation also provides an opportunity to offset negative climate changes.
ReAdapt will employ ten different scenarios for how climate and extreme events may develop. Hydrological models will be used to calculate inflow, discharge, and water temperature. Power system models will then be used to determine future energy production, electricity prices, and operation of reservoirs and power plants.
We are focusing on salmon in ReAdapt because it responds relatively quickly to changes in physical conditions. There is a lot of relevant knowledge about how salmon reacts to various climatic conditions, which we will use in combination with experimental studies at the NINA research station in Ims. There, we will observe how salmon responds to different flow and water temperature conditions, which will, in turn, be used in models for salmon growth and development. Together with models for climate, hydrology, and power production, we can predict how extreme climate events affect salmon and, furthermore, how we can adapt hydropower and implement mitigating measures to ensure both power production and salmon survival in the future climate.
ReAdapt will generate research-based knowledge about how hydropower can optimize and re-adapt sustainable operations in future climates. The focus will be on extreme events, and how they can be accommodated with strategic investments and measures, to minimize uncertainty, and maintain or increase hydropower production. At the same time, we will investigate impacts to ensure a well-functioning aquatic ecosystem by adapting hydropower operations and suggest mitigation measures for the key species Atlantic salmon.
ReAdapt will identify a set of compound scenarios combining multiple climate pressures and other stressors that pose risks to hydropower production and the ecosystem. By the use of hydrological modelling and ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios for emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, we will characterize extreme events of flow and water temperature for the scenarios. We will then use power system models to analyse how these scenarios will impact total power system costs, electricity prices, energy production, reservoir management and environmental flow releases at national and local scales.
Atlantic salmon is an ideal model organism to study ecological effects of extreme climate events because it is a key indicator species used to assess ecological conditions in rivers. We will analyse historical data to understand how extreme episodes have affected salmon. By using a combined experimental, and genetical approach, we will test ecological impacts of projected extreme water temperatures and flow conditions at NINA’s Research Station Ims. Results from future scenarios on hydrology and power system models will feed into a mechanistic individual-based model, to simulate salmonid response to impacts of extreme events.
Finally, we will show how extreme events impact the ability for hydropower plants to comply with revised terms of licenses, total power system costs, and energy production while maintaining sustainable ecosystems.
Mvua na joto itabadilika katika hali ya hewa ya baadaye, ikitoa changamoto mpya na fursa kwa umeme wa maji wa Norway. "Tunatarajia kuongezeka kwa mzunguko, muda, na ukali wa matukio ya hali ya juu kama vile mafuriko, ukame, na joto la juu la maji. """ Mradi wa utafiti ReAdapt unakusudia kusoma jinsi tunaweza kurekebisha mfumo wa umeme wa maji kwa hali ya hewa mpya kwa kuzingatia matukio ya hali ya juu. Lengo ni kudumisha au kuongeza uzalishaji wa umeme wa maji wakati wa kuhifadhi utofauti wa kibiolojia katika mifumo ya ikolojia inayofanya kazi vizuri. Mifumo ya ikolojia ya maji baridi imebadilika kulingana na hali ya hali ya hewa ya kihistoria. Uwezo wa maji una athari inayotambuliwa juu ya mifumo ya ikolojia ya maji baridi, lakini tuna maarifa mazuri ya athari na hatua za kupunguza. Kuongezeka kwa matukio ya hali ya hewa kali kunaweza kuharibu hali ya hewa, lakini pia kunaweza kupunguza athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. ReAdapt itatumia matukio kumi tofauti ya jinsi hali ya hewa na matukio ya kupita kiasi yanaweza kuendeleza. Mifano ya maji itatumiwa kuhesabu mtiririko wa maji, mtiririko wa maji, na halijoto ya maji. Mifano ya mfumo wa umeme kisha itatumiwa kuamua uzalishaji wa nishati ya baadaye, bei za umeme, na uendeshaji wa mabwawa na mitambo ya umeme. Kwa hivyo, tunaangalia samaki wa samaki katika ReAdapt kwa sababu wana uwezo wa kujibu mabadiliko ya hali ya mwili. "Kama tunavyojua, kuna ""mazoezi"" mengi kuhusu jinsi samaki wanavyoitikia hali mbalimbali za hali ya hewa, ambayo tutatumia pamoja na masomo ya majaribio katika kituo cha utafiti cha NINA huko Ims." Katika utafiti huu, tunachunguza jinsi samaki wanavyoweza kukabiliana na hali tofauti za maji na joto la maji, na hivyo kuweza kutengeneza mifano ya ukuaji na maendeleo ya samaki. Pamoja na mifano ya hali ya hewa, hydrology, na uzalishaji wa nishati, tunaweza kutabiri jinsi matukio ya hali ya hewa kali yanavyoathiri samaki, na zaidi ya hayo, jinsi tunaweza kurekebisha umeme wa maji na kutekeleza hatua za kupunguza ili kuhakikisha uzalishaji wa nishati na uhai wa samaki katika hali ya hewa ya baadaye. ReAdapt itazalisha maarifa ya utafiti kuhusu jinsi umeme wa maji unaweza kuboresha na kurekebisha shughuli endelevu katika hali ya hewa ya siku zijazo. Mtazamo utakuwa juu ya matukio ya hali ya juu, na jinsi wanaweza kuwa accommodated na uwekezaji wa kimkakati na hatua, kupunguza kutokuwa na uhakika, na kudumisha au kuongeza uzalishaji wa umeme wa maji. Wakati huo huo, tutachunguza athari za kuhakikisha mfumo wa ikolojia wa maji unaofanya kazi vizuri kwa kurekebisha shughuli za umeme wa maji na kupendekeza hatua za kupunguza kwa spishi muhimu za samaki wa Atlantiki. ReAdapt itaamua seti ya matukio ya mchanganyiko wa shinikizo nyingi za hali ya hewa na vikwazo vingine ambavyo vina hatari kwa uzalishaji wa umeme wa maji na mazingira. Kwa kutumia mifano ya hydrological na kumi downscaled na bias-iliyosahihishwa hali ya hewa matukio kwa ajili ya hali ya uzalishaji RCP4.5 na RCP8.5, tutaweza sifa matukio ya kupita kiasi ya mtiririko na joto la maji kwa ajili ya matukio. "Kisha tutatumia mifano ya mfumo wa umeme kuchambua jinsi matukio haya yatakavyoathiri gharama za jumla za mfumo wa umeme, bei za umeme, uzalishaji wa nishati, usimamizi wa hifadhi na kutolewa kwa mtiririko wa mazingira katika viwango vya kitaifa na vya mitaa. """ Samoni wa Atlantiki ni mfano bora wa utafiti wa athari za ikolojia za hali ya hewa kali, kwa sababu ni aina muhimu ya kiashiria inayotumiwa kutathmini hali ya ikolojia katika mito. Tutachambua data ya kihistoria ili kuelewa jinsi matukio ya kupita kiasi yameathiri samaki. Kwa kutumia mbinu ya majaribio na ya maumbile, tutajaribu athari za ikolojia za joto la maji na hali ya mtiririko katika Kituo cha Utafiti cha NINA Ims. Matokeo kutoka kwa matukio ya baadaye juu ya mifano ya mfumo wa maji na nguvu itapeleka katika mfano wa mtu binafsi wa utaratibu, kuiga majibu ya salmonid kwa athari za matukio ya kupita kiasi. Hatimaye, tutaonyesha jinsi matukio ya hali ya juu kuathiri uwezo wa mitambo ya umeme wa maji ya kufuata masharti yaliyorekebishwa ya leseni, gharama za jumla za mfumo wa umeme, na uzalishaji wa nishati wakati wa kudumisha mifumo ya ikolojia endelevu.