Experts at COP 27 have made apocalyptic forecasts of weather under climate change if urgent action is not taken. In South Asia, the anticipated ‘climate chaos’ is already a reality for many, with extreme droughts and floods increasingly affecting the region. According to the World Bank, losses will average USD 160 billion per year by the end of this decade if current trends continue. If South Asian nations and communities are to cope as climate change progresses, they need advance warning of extreme events, so they can put mitigation plans into action, and avoid climate hazards becoming major disasters.
In response, IWMI, in collaboration with the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) and other partners, has launched its next-generation South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) platform. This cloud-based, integrated drought-management portal makes available all the information needed to forecast, monitor and manage drought, for free, to anyone with a desktop computer and internet access. Having sufficient notice that a drought is emerging can support farmers, extension workers, water managers, and national and regional authorities to enact mitigation strategies, thereby reducing vulnerability to extreme floods and droughts in the long term.
The SADMS platform, which covers Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, provides seasonal, sub-seasonal and seven-day weather forecasts as easy-to-interpret on-screen maps; monitoring tools that indicate when drought is present and, if so, the level of severity; and district-level agricultural contingency plans that can be put into early action if the system indicates that particular triggers have been reached. The monitoring and forecasting components of SADMS are based on indices including vegetation health, rainfall levels and soil moisture, which can identify the extent to which drought is present and, over time, developing.
Image: Dried-up canal in Gujarat. Photo: Hamish John Appleby / IWMI
Wataalamu wa COP27 wametoa utabiri wa hali ya hewa ya mwisho chini ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ikiwa hatua za haraka hazitachukuliwa. Katika Asia Kusini, "mvurugo wa hali ya hewa" unaotarajiwa tayari ni ukweli kwa wengi, na ukame mkali na mafuriko yanaathiri zaidi mkoa huo. Kulingana na Benki ya Dunia, hasara ya wastani ya dola bilioni 160 kwa mwaka itafikia mwisho wa muongo huu ikiwa mwenendo wa sasa utaendelea. "Ikiwa mataifa na jamii za Asia Kusini zinapaswa kukabiliana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, zinahitaji onyo la mapema la matukio makali, ili waweze kuweka mipango ya kupunguza athari, na kuepuka hatari za hali ya hewa kuwa majanga makubwa. """ IWMI, kwa kushirikiana na Baraza la India la Utafiti wa Kilimo, Wizara ya Kilimo, Misitu na Uvuvi ya Japani (MAFF) na washirika wengine, imezindua jukwaa lake la kizazi kijacho la Mfumo wa Ufuatiliaji wa Ukame wa Asia Kusini (SADMS). "Kifaa hiki cha ""kuhifadhi"" kinachotumiwa na wadau wa ukame, kinaweza kuhifadhi habari zote zinazohitajika kwa utabiri, ufuatiliaji na usimamizi wa ukame, kwa bure, kwa mtu yeyote aliye na kompyuta ya desktop na upatikanaji wa mtandao." Kujua mapema kuhusu ukame kunaweza kuwasaidia wakulima, wafanyakazi wa kupanua, wasimamizi wa maji, na mamlaka za kitaifa na kikanda kutekeleza mikakati ya kupunguza, na hivyo kupunguza hatari ya mafuriko na ukame kwa muda mrefu. Programu ya SADMS, ambayo inashughulikia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan na Sri Lanka, hutoa utabiri wa hali ya hewa wa msimu, msimu wa chini na siku saba kama ramani za skrini rahisi kutafsiri; zana za ufuatiliaji ambazo zinaonyesha wakati ukame upo na, ikiwa ni hivyo, kiwango cha ukali; na mipango ya hali ya haraka ya kilimo ya ngazi ya wilaya ambayo inaweza kuwekwa katika hatua ya mapema ikiwa mfumo unaonyesha kuwa trigger maalum imefikiwa. Vipengele vya ufuatiliaji na utabiri wa SADMS vinategemea viashiria, ikiwa ni pamoja na afya ya mimea, viwango vya mvua na unyevu wa udongo, ambayo inaweza kutambua kiwango cha ukame unaowepo na, kwa muda, unaoendelea. Picha: Mfereji uliokauka huko Gujarat. Picha: Hamish John Appleby