According to IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, AI technology is poised to impact nearly 40% of jobs worldwide, presenting opportunities and challenges.
Georgieva stresses, “In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality,” underscoring the need for strategic policy interventions to harness AI’s benefits while mitigating its risks.
The IMF’s analysis further revealed a stark variation in AI’s impact across different economies.
In advanced economies, approximately 60% of jobs could be influenced by AI, with half potentially benefiting from enhanced productivity due to AI integration.
However, there’s a flip side: AI could displace human skills, diminish labor demand, impact wages, and, in extreme cases, eliminate jobs entirely.
The projected impact is 40% and 26% in emerging markets and low-income countries, respectively.
The research further shows a substantial risk of AI exacerbating income and wealth inequality both within and between countries. High-income and younger workers might benefit more, while low-income and older workers could be disadvantaged.
Georgieva points out, “Many of these countries don’t have the infrastructure or skilled workforces to harness the benefits of AI,” highlighting a growing risk of technology inequality.
The IMF also indicated that workers adept at utilizing AI could see increased productivity and wages, while others might fall behind.
This feeds into the ‘adapt or die’ narrative of AI adoption for both individuals and companies.
“Adapt or die.”
Tell me, how does one ‘adapt’ to this.
People who think AI is going to be an infinite money printing machine for everyone never took an economics class or learned what inflation is. You’re being sold a lie. pic.twitter.com/ZmQCbegZGF
— Reid Southen (@Rahll) January 14, 2024
Research in 2023 indicated how far AI labor disruption might extend, but 2024 thus far has seen some of these forecasts come into reality. Recent controversies involving companies replacing artists with AI and layoffs at Duolingo indicate this rising trend.
Recognizing the challenges, Georgieva emphasizes the importance of comprehensive social safety nets and retraining programs, asserting, “It is crucial for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programmes for vulnerable workers.”
The AI Preparedness Index
In response to its research, the IMF developed the AI Preparedness Index to assist countries in preparing for AI’s impact.
This tool evaluates readiness across domains like digital infrastructure, labor market policies, innovation, and regulatory frameworks.
The index reveals that wealthier nations, including advanced and some emerging economies, are generally more prepared for AI adoption.
The global response to AI’s rise includes steps toward regulation. For instance, the European Union (EU) is moving towards implementing the world’s first comprehensive AI laws, with the European Parliament set to vote on these proposals.
The IMF’s research comes ahead of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. The WEF recently published that 79% of top economists predict that generative AI will significantly enhance production efficiency in high-income regions this year, while 74% foresee a boost in innovation.
94% of economists expect these productivity improvements to have a considerable economic impact on high-income economies over the next five years. In contrast, only 53% believe low-income economies will experience similar gains.
Regarding employment, the outlook is less favorable. About 73% of economists do not expect AI to positively influence employment in low-income economies. Nearly half (47%) express similar reservations for high-income economies.
In conclusion, as Georgieva aptly puts it, “The AI era is upon us, and it is still within our power to ensure it brings prosperity for all.”
The evidence underlying this statement paints a nuanced picture where productivity and disruption are finely balanced.
"Kristo Georgieva, Mkurugenzi Mtendaji wa IMF, alisema: ""Tabibu za AI zinatarajiwa kuathiri karibu 40% ya kazi ulimwenguni, na kutoa fursa na changamoto." Georgieva anasisitiza, "Katika matukio mengi, AI yaweza kuzidisha ukosefu wa usawa kwa ujumla", akisisitiza hitaji la uingiliaji wa sera za kimkakati ili kutumia faida za AI wakati wa kupunguza hatari zake. Uchambuzi wa IMF pia ulifunua tofauti kubwa katika athari za AI katika uchumi tofauti. Katika uchumi wa hali ya juu, karibu 60% ya kazi zinaweza kuathiriwa na AI, na nusu ya uwezekano wa kufaidika na uzalishaji ulioimarishwa kwa sababu ya ushirikiano wa AI. Hata hivyo, kuna upande mwingine: AI inaweza kuhamisha ujuzi wa binadamu, kupunguza mahitaji ya kazi, athari mishahara, na, katika kesi kali, kuondoa kazi kabisa. Matokeo ya makadirio ni 40% na 26% katika masoko yanayoibuka na nchi za mapato ya chini. Utafiti huo pia unaonyesha hatari kubwa ya AI kuharibu usawa wa mapato na utajiri ndani na kati ya nchi. Wafanyakazi wenye mapato ya juu na vijana wanaweza kufaidika zaidi, wakati wafanyakazi wenye mapato ya chini na wazee wanaweza kuwa na hasara. "Kama Georgieva anavyosema, ""Nchi nyingi hazina miundombinu au wafanyakazi wenye ujuzi wa kutumia faida za AI,"" akisisitiza hatari inayoongezeka ya usawa wa teknolojia." IMF pia ilionyesha kuwa wafanyakazi wanaofahamu kutumia AI wanaweza kuona ongezeko la uzalishaji na mishahara, wakati wengine wanaweza kushuka nyuma. Hii inatoa katika "kujipatanisha au kufa" hadithi ya kupitishwa kwa AI kwa watu binafsi na makampuni. <unk>Adapt au kufa. <unk> Niambie, jinsi gani mtu <unk>adapt<unk> kwa hii. Watu ambao wanafikiri AI itakuwa mashine ya kuchapisha pesa isiyo na kikomo kwa kila mtu hawajawahi kuchukua darasa la uchumi au kujifunza nini mfumuko wa bei. Unalazimika kusema uwongo. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika taarifa ya ""The Guardian"" ya Januari 14, 2020, utafiti uliofanywa katika mwaka wa 2023 ulionyesha ni kwa kiasi gani usumbufu wa kazi wa AI unaweza kupanuka, lakini hadi sasa, 2024 imeona baadhi ya utabiri huu kuwa ukweli." Mjadala wa hivi karibuni unaohusisha makampuni yanayobadilisha wasanii na AI na kufutwa kazi huko Duolingo huonyesha mwenendo huu unaoongezeka. "Kutokana na changamoto hizo, Georgieva alisisitiza umuhimu wa mitandao ya usalama wa kijamii na mipango ya mafunzo ya upya, akisema, ""Ni muhimu kwa nchi kuanzisha mitandao ya usalama wa kijamii na kutoa mipango ya mafunzo ya upya kwa wafanyakazi walio hatarini.""" Chombo hiki kinatathmini utayari katika nyanja kama vile miundombinu ya dijiti, sera za soko la kazi, uvumbuzi, na mifumo ya udhibiti. "Imeonyeshwa kuwa nchi tajiri, pamoja na nchi zilizoendelea na baadhi ya uchumi unaojitokeza, kwa ujumla ziko tayari zaidi kwa kupitishwa kwa AI. """ Jibu la kimataifa kwa kuongezeka kwa AI ni pamoja na hatua kuelekea udhibiti. Kwa mfano, Umoja wa Ulaya (EU) unaelekea kutekeleza sheria za kwanza za ulimwengu za AI, na Bunge la Ulaya limewekwa kupiga kura juu ya mapendekezo haya. Utafiti wa IMF unakuja kabla ya Mkutano wa Kiuchumi wa Dunia (WEF) huko Davos, Uswisi. WEF ilitangaza hivi karibuni kwamba 79% ya wataalamu wa uchumi wa juu wanatabiri kuwa AI ya kizazi itaongeza kwa kiasi kikubwa ufanisi wa uzalishaji katika mikoa ya mapato ya juu mwaka huu, wakati 74% wanatarajia kuongezeka kwa uvumbuzi. Wataalamu wa uchumi 94% wanatarajia kuboresha uzalishaji kuwa na athari kubwa ya kiuchumi kwa uchumi wa mapato ya juu katika miaka mitano ijayo. Kwa upande mwingine, ni asilimia 53 tu wanaamini uchumi wa mapato ya chini utapata faida kama hizo. Kuhusu kazi ya kuajiriwa, matarajio si mazuri sana. Zaidi ya asilimia 73 ya wataalamu wa uchumi wanatarajia AI kuathiri kazi katika nchi zenye mapato ya chini. Karibu nusu (47%) wanaonyesha wasiwasi kama huo kwa uchumi wa mapato ya juu. "Kufikia mwisho, kama Georgieva anavyosema, ""Enzi ya AI iko juu yetu, na bado iko ndani ya uwezo wetu kuhakikisha inaleta ustawi kwa wote,"" ushahidi unaotegemea taarifa hii unaonyesha picha ya nuance ambapo uzalishaji na usumbufu ni usawa."