New UN Report Warns of Huge Economic Losses
By Devinder Kumar
NEW DELHI | BANGKOK (IDN) – Vulnerable and marginalized communities are among the hardest hit by natural disasters that occurred in a relentless sequence in Asia and the Pacific in the past two years, beyond what the region had previously experienced or was able to predict. This, according to the latest report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), is “a sign of things to come in the new climate reality” where economic losses are set to quadruple.
Recent disasters such as cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, dust storms and heatwaves “can strike anyone, anywhere, but they do their greatest damage in the poorest communities — often those of minority groups, or of people living in remote areas, or in the fragile marginal zones of the region’s rapidly expanding cities”, says Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, ESCAP Executive Secretary and Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, in a foreword to the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019.
The report, titled ‘The Disaster Riskscape Across Asia-Pacific: Pathways for resilience, inclusion and empowerment’, presages “a daunting spectrum of natural hazards” in the region and spells out the extent of disaster risk in the regional ‘riskscape’ offering a comprehensive analysis taking into account all types of disaster — intensive or extensive, rapid or slow-onset. It shows that many of the region’s disasters are linked to environmental degradation and to climate change, leading to a more complex future of unpredictable multi-hazard risks.
In 2018, almost half of the 281 natural disasters worldwide occurred in Asia-Pacific region, including eight out of the ten deadliest. An average of 142 million people in the region have been affected annually since 1970, well above the global average of 38 million, notes the report – a bi-annual flagship publication of ESCAP which aims assist policymakers, in both public and private sectors, to better understand disaster risk and resilience and take the many opportunities for action.
For the first time, the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report includes the costs of slow-onset disasters, notably drought which results in a quadrupling of annual economic losses as compared to previous estimates. The annual economic loss for Asia and the Pacific is now $675 billion, or around 2.4 per cent of the region’s GDP, of which $405 billion or 60 per cent are drought-related agricultural losses, impacting the rural poor disproportionately.
“Countries across the region have committed themselves to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 — to ensure that no one is left behind. But they cannot achieve many of the SDG targets if their people are not protected from disasters that threaten to reverse hard-won development gains. This means not just building resilience in the priority zones but doing so across the entire region – reaching the most marginal and vulnerable communities,” said ESCAP Executive Secretary Alisjahbana at the launch of the report in Bangkok on August 22.
Almost 40 per cent of disaster impacts are on the social sectors resulting in deeper inequalities of opportunity that are transmitted over generations, notes the report. Disasters are also set to slow down poverty reduction. The number of people living in extreme poverty (under $1.90 a day) is anticipated to be 56 million by 2030. The number would more than double to 123 million if disaster risk remains unmitigated.
“However, this is not inevitable. Governments can break this vicious cycle by investing to outpace disaster risk and the report shows that investments will be far smaller than the damage and losses from unmitigated disasters. Moreover, these same investments will deliver co-benefits – in the form of better education, health, social and infrastructure services, and higher agricultural production and incomes,” notes the ESCP head Alisjahbana.
The report identifies four distinct hotspots in the region where fragile environments are converging with critical socioeconomic vulnerabilities. They include the transboundary river basins of South and South-East Asia; the Pacific Ring of Fire in South-East Asia and East and North-East Asia; sand and dust storm corridors in East and North-East Asia, South and South-West Asia and Central Asia; and climate-related hazards in the Pacific Small Island Developing States.
A person in the Pacific is found to be three to five times more at risk than those in other parts of the region, declares the report.
It calls for transformative change, with social policies and disaster resilience no longer treated as separate policy domains. It highlights how policymakers can enhance the quality of investments through policy reforms for more inclusive and empowered societies, to ensure that poor and vulnerable groups are not excluded from the benefits of investments due to barriers in accessing land, reliable early warning systems, finance and decision-making structures.
The report also explores how emerging technologies such as big data and digital identities can be used to ensure the poorest and most vulnerable groups are included in policy interventions.
“Even the poorest countries can be empowered by smart digital technologies. Artificial intelligence and big data techniques, for example, can build a live picture of rapidly developing events by merging satellite imagery with data from mobile phones. At the same time, digital identity systems can offer more ways to deliver essential social protection services, before, during and after disasters,” notes the report.
Furthermore, the report points out that many of the region’s disaster hotspots extend across national boundaries and proposes a set of regional policy actions to be implemented through the Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network, supported by ESCAP. [IDN-InDepthNews – 23 August 2019]
Photo: Cover of ‘The Disaster Riskscape Across Asia-Pacific: Pathways for resilience, inclusion and empowerment’. Credit: ESCAP
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Ripoti mpya ya Umoja wa Mataifa inahadhari juu ya hasara kubwa za kiuchumi - Devendra Kumar - Jiji la New Delhi, Bangladesh, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu, Jumatatu. Kulingana na ripoti ya hivi karibuni ya Tume ya Uchumi na Jamii ya Umoja wa Mataifa kwa Asia na Pasifiki (ESCAP), hii ni ishara ya mambo yanayokuja katika hali halisi mpya ya hali ya hewa ambapo hasara za kiuchumi zimewekwa mara nne. "Mashambulizi ya hivi karibuni kama vile vimbunga, matetemeko ya ardhi, tsunami, mafuriko, ukame, dhoruba za vumbi na mawimbi ya joto "" yanaweza kumgonga mtu yeyote, mahali popote, lakini hufanya uharibifu mkubwa katika jamii maskini zaidi, mara nyingi zile za vikundi vya wachache, au watu wanaoishi katika maeneo ya mbali, au katika maeneo dhaifu ya miji inayopanuka haraka "", anasema Armida Salsa Al-Shaibana, Katibu Mtendaji wa ESCAP na Naibu Katibu Mkuu wa Umoja wa Mataifa." Ripoti hiyo, yenye kichwa The Disaster Riskscape Across Asia-Pacific: Pathways for Resilience, Inclusion and Empowerment, inaonyesha "spectrum ya kutisha ya hatari za asili" katika mkoa huo na inaelezea kiwango cha hatari ya maafa katika "hatari za mkoa" kutoa uchambuzi wa kina kwa kuzingatia aina zote za maafa - makali au makubwa, ya haraka au ya polepole. "Imeonyesha kuwa misiba mingi ya mkoa huo inahusiana na uharibifu wa mazingira na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, na kusababisha siku zijazo ngumu zaidi za hatari nyingi zisizoweza kutabiriwa. """ Katika mwaka 2018, karibu nusu ya majanga 281 ya asili ulimwenguni yalitokea katika eneo la Asia-Pacific, ikiwa ni pamoja na nane kati ya kumi ya hatari zaidi. Kwa wastani, watu milioni 142 katika eneo hilo wameathiriwa kila mwaka tangu 1970, zaidi ya wastani wa kimataifa wa milioni 38, ripoti hiyo inasema, ambayo ni chapisho la kila mwaka la ESCAP, ambalo linakusudia kusaidia watunga sera, katika sekta ya umma na binafsi, kuelewa vizuri hatari ya maafa na uvumilivu na kuchukua fursa nyingi za hatua. Kwa mara ya kwanza, ripoti ya majanga ya Asia-Pacific inajumuisha gharama za majanga ya polepole, haswa ukame ambao unasababisha hasara ya kila mwaka ya kiuchumi mara nne ikilinganishwa na makadirio ya awali. "Uharibifu wa kila mwaka wa uchumi wa Asia na Pasifiki sasa ni $ 675 bilioni, au karibu 2.4% ya Pato la Taifa la mkoa huo, ambayo $ 405 bilioni au 60% ni hasara za kilimo zinazohusiana na ukame, na kuathiri maskini wa vijijini kwa kiasi kikubwa. """ "Nchi zote katika eneo hilo zimejitolea kufikia malengo ya maendeleo endelevu (SDGs) ifikapo 2030 ili kuhakikisha kwamba hakuna mtu anayesalia nyuma.""" Lakini hawawezi kufikia malengo mengi ya SDG ikiwa watu wao hawawalindi kutokana na majanga ambayo yanatishia kuharibu mafanikio ya maendeleo yaliyopatikana kwa bidii. "Hii inamaanisha sio tu kujenga uthabiti katika maeneo ya kipaumbele lakini kufanya hivyo katika mkoa mzima - kufikia jamii za pembeni na zilizo hatarini zaidi, ""alisema Katibu Mtendaji wa ESCAP Alisjah Ban katika uzinduzi wa ripoti hiyo huko Bangkok mnamo Agosti 22." "Hata hivyo, ""karibu asilimia 40 ya athari za majanga ni katika sekta za kijamii, na kusababisha ukosefu mkubwa wa fursa ambazo zinapitishwa kwa vizazi,"" ripoti hiyo ilisema." Misiba pia hufanya kupunguza kasi ya kupunguza umaskini. Idadi ya watu wanaoishi katika umaskini wa hali ya chini (chini ya dola 1.90 kwa siku) inatarajiwa kuwa milioni 56 ifikapo 2030. Idadi hiyo itazidi maradufu hadi milioni 123 ikiwa hatari ya misiba itabaki bila kupunguzwa. <unk>Hata hivyo, hii si ya kuepukika. Serikali zinaweza kuvunja mzunguko huu wa ubaya kwa kuwekeza ili kupanua hatari ya maafa, na ripoti inaonyesha kuwa uwekezaji utakuwa mdogo sana kuliko uharibifu na hasara kutoka kwa maafa yasiyo na uharibifu. "Zaidi ya hayo, uwekezaji huo huo utatoa faida za pamoja katika fomu ya elimu bora, huduma za afya, kijamii na miundombinu, na uzalishaji wa kilimo na mapato ya juu, ""alisema mkuu wa ESCP Alizehbani." Ripoti hiyo inabainisha maeneo manne tofauti katika mkoa huo ambapo mazingira dhaifu yanakutana na udhaifu mkubwa wa kijamii na kiuchumi. Mifereji ya Mto wa Pasifiki (Pasifiki Ring of Fire) katika Asia ya Kusini-Mashariki, Asia ya Mashariki na Asia ya Kaskazini-Mashariki, Asia ya Mashariki na Kaskazini-Mashariki, Asia ya Kusini na Kusini-Magharibi na Asia ya Kati, na hatari zinazohusiana na hali ya hewa katika nchi ndogo za kisiwa cha Pasifiki. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika ripoti hiyo, ""watu wanaoishi katika eneo la Pasifiki wana hatari ya kuambukizwa mara tatu hadi tano zaidi ya wale wanaoishi katika sehemu nyingine za eneo hilo.""" Inataka mabadiliko ya mabadiliko, na sera za kijamii na upinzani wa majanga hazitumiki tena kama maeneo tofauti ya sera. "Imeonyesha jinsi watunga sera wanaweza kuboresha ubora wa uwekezaji kupitia mageuzi ya sera kwa jamii zilizojumuisha zaidi na zilizo na nguvu, kuhakikisha kwamba watu maskini na walio hatarini hawaondolewa kwa faida za uwekezaji kwa sababu ya vizuizi vya kupata ardhi, mifumo ya kuaminika ya onyo la mapema, fedha na miundo ya maamuzi. """ Ripoti hiyo pia inachunguza jinsi teknolojia mpya kama vile data kubwa na utambulisho wa dijiti zinaweza kutumiwa kuhakikisha makundi maskini na dhaifu zaidi yanajumuishwa katika hatua za sera. <unk>Hata nchi maskini zaidi zinaweza kupewa nguvu na teknolojia za dijiti za akili. Ujasusi bandia na mbinu za data kubwa, kwa mfano, zinaweza kujenga picha ya moja kwa moja ya matukio yanayobadilika haraka kwa kuunganisha picha za satelaiti na data kutoka kwa simu za mkononi. Wakati huo huo, mifumo ya utambulisho wa dijiti inaweza kutoa njia zaidi za kutoa huduma muhimu za ulinzi wa kijamii, kabla, wakati na baada ya majanga, <unk> anasema ripoti hiyo. "Kwa kuongezea, ripoti hiyo inabainisha kwamba maeneo mengi ya msiba katika mkoa huo yanaenea zaidi ya mipaka ya kitaifa na inapendekeza seti ya hatua za sera za kikanda kutekelezwa kupitia Mtandao wa Uvumilivu wa Msiba wa Asia-Pacific, unaoungwa mkono na ESCAP. """ "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika makala ya ""The Disaster Riskscape Across Asia-Pacific: Pathways for Resilience, Inclusion and Empowerment"" (Mfano: Jalada la ""The Disaster Riskscape Across Asia-Pacific: Pathways for Resilience, Inclusion and Empowerment"")." "Kama ilivyoelezwa hapo juu, ""ESCAP"" ni shirika la kimataifa la vyombo vya habari (IS) na shirika la kimataifa la vyombo vya habari (IS) na shirika la kimataifa la vyombo vya habari (IS)." 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