Has The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb been sitting on your reading list? Pick up the key ideas in the book with this quick summary.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan explores the nature of what we perceive as random events, as well as the logical pitfalls that cause us to miss out on the bigger picture. He calls these seemingly random events, which often have profound consequences for the individual and even for societies on the whole, “Black Swans.”
Taleb gives us a better understanding of our own shortcomings when it comes to making predictions. This can help us to recognize when our judgment is clouded by the desire to fit information into neat, easy-to-understand narratives.
In this book summary, you’ll find out how to avoid mistaking noise for knowledge, and how to make better use of your ignorance.
You’ll learn why thinking like a turkey could be bad for your health.
You’ll also find out why the greatest threat to a casino might actually have nothing to do with gambling.
Finally, you’ll discover why “knowing what you don’t know” can save you from losing your life savings.
The Black Swan Key Idea #1: “Black Swans” are events thought to lie outside the realm of possibility, and yet happen anyway.
As human beings, we are particularly good at turning all of the stimuli from our environment into meaningful information. This is a talent that has allowed us to create the scientific method, philosophize about the nature of being and invent complex mathematical models.
But just because we’re able to reflect on and order the world around us doesn’t necessarily mean we’re very good at it.
For one thing, we’re inclined to be narrow-minded in our beliefs about the world. Once we have an idea about how the world functions, we tend to cling to it.
But because human knowledge is constantly growing and evolving, this dogmatic approach makes no sense. Just two-hundred years ago, for example, doctors and scientists were supremely confident in their knowledge of medicine, yet today their confidence seems ludicrous: just imagine going to your doctor complaining of a common cold, and being given a prescription for snakes and leeches!
Being dogmatic about our beliefs makes us blind to those concepts that fall outside the paradigms we’ve already accepted as true. How, for example, is it possible to understand medicine if you’re not aware that germs exist? You might come up with a sensible explanation for illness but it will be flawed by a lack of crucial information.
This kind of dogmatic thinking can result in huge surprises. We’re sometimes surprised by events not because they’re random, but because our outlook is too narrow. Such surprises are known as “Black Swans,” and they can prompt us to fundamentally reconsider our worldview:
Before anyone had ever seen a black swan, people assumed that all swans were white. Because of this, all their depictions and imaginations of the swan were white, meaning that white was an essential part of “swanness.” So, when they discovered their first black swan, this fundamentally transformed their understanding of what a swan could be.
As you’ll see, Black Swans can be as trivial as learning that not all swans are white, or as life-changing as losing everything because of a stock market crash.
The Black Swan Key Idea #2: Black Swan events can have earth-shattering consequences for those who are blind to them.
The effect of a Black Swan isn’t the same for us all. Some will be hugely affected by them, others hardly at all. The power of their effect is largely determined by your access to relevant information: the more information you have, the less likely you are to be hit by a Black Swan; and the more ignorant you are, the more you are at risk.
This can be seen in the following scenario:
Imagine making a bet on your favorite horse, Rocket. Because of Rocket’s build, her track record, the skill of the jockey, and the poor competition, you believe that Rocket is the safest bet and gamble everything you own on the horse winning.
Now imagine your surprise when the starting pistol is fired and Rocket not only doesn’t leave the gates but opts instead to simply lay down on the track.
This would be a Black Swan event. Given the information you’d gathered, Rocket winning was a safe bet, yet you lost everything the instant the race began.
But this event will not be a tragedy for everyone. For example, Rocket’s owner made a fortune by betting against his own horse. Unlike you, he had additional information, knowing that Rocket was going to go on strike to protest animal cruelty. Just that small amount of information saved him from having to suffer a Black Swan event.
The impact of Black Swans can also differ widely in scale. Rather than affecting only individuals, sometimes, entire societies can experience a Black Swan. When this happens, a Black Swan can transform how the world works, impacting many areas of society, like philosophy, theology and physics.
For example, when Copernicus proposed that the Earth is not the center of the universe, the consequences were immense, as his discovery challenged both the authority of the ruling Catholics and the historical authority of the Bible itself.
In the end, this particular Black Swan helped to establish a new beginning for all of European society.
The Black Swan Key Idea #3: We are very easily fooled by even the most basic of logical fallacies.
Although humans seem to be the most intelligent animals on the planet, there’s still a long way to go before we’ll have outgrown all of our bad habits.
One such habit is creating narratives based on what we know of the past. While we tend to believe that the past is a good indication of the future, this is often a fallacy. It leaves us prone to mistakes because there are simply too many unknown factors which could go against our narratives.
For example, imagine you’re a turkey living on a farm. Over the years the farmer has fed you, let you roam freely, and provided a place to live. Using the past as your guide, there is no reason to expect that tomorrow should be any different.
Alas, tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and you are decapitated, filled with spices, thrown in an oven, and devoured by those who had housed and fed you.
As this example shows, believing that we can base predictions about the future on knowledge of the past is a fallacy with potentially dire consequences.
A similar fallacy is confirmation bias: we often search for evidence only for those beliefs we’ve formed already, even to the extent that we ignore any evidence that contradicts them.
When we encounter information that goes against what we already believe, we’re unlikely to accept it and even less likely to investigate further. If we do investigate, we’ll probably look for sources that undermine this information.
For example, if you strongly believe that “climate change” is a conspiracy but then happen to see a documentary called “The Undeniable Evidence for a Changing Climate,” it’s likely that you’ll be upset.
If, after this, you did a web search for information about climate change, it’s more probable that the search terms you use would be “climate change hoax” and not “evidence for and against climate change.”
While both of these fallacies are anti-scientific, it turns out that we can’t do much to avoid such bad reasoning: it’s simply in our nature.
The Black Swan Key Idea #4: The way that our brains categorize information makes accurate predictions extremely difficult.
During our evolution, the human brain developed certain ways to categorize information. While these were great for surviving in the wild, when we needed to learn and adapt quickly to our dangerous surroundings, they are terrible in today’s complex environments.
For instance, one way we incorrectly categorize information is the so-called narrative fallacy, where we create linear narratives to describe our current situation.
This is due to the massive amount of information we’re faced with every day. To make sense of it all, our brains select only that information it considers important. For example, while you probably remember what you ate for breakfast this morning, it’s doubtful you remember the color of everyone’s shoes on the subway.
In order to give meaning to these unconnected bits of information, we turn them into a coherent narrative. For example, when you reflect on your own life, you probably select only certain events as meaningful, and you order those events into a narrative that explains how you became who you are. For example, you love music because your mom used to sing songs by The Beatles to you every night.
However, creating such narratives is a poor way to gain any meaningful understanding of the world. This is because the process works only by looking back on the past, and doesn’t take into account the near-infinite explanations that are possible for any one event.
The fact is that tiny, apparently insignificant events can have unpredictable, major consequences.
Imagine, for example, that a butterfly flapping her wings in India causes a hurricane one month later in New York City.
If we catalogue each stage of cause and effect in this process as they occur, then we’d be able to see a clear, causal relationship between events. But since we only see the outcome – in this case, the hurricane – then all we can do is guess at which of the simultaneously occurring events actually influenced that outcome.
The Black Swan Key Idea #5: We don’t easily distinguish between scalable and non-scalable information.
We humans have developed many methods and models for categorizing information and making sense of the world. Unfortunately, however, we’re not very good at distinguishing between the different types of information – most crucially between “scalable” and “non-scalable” information.
But the difference between those types is fundamental.
Non-scalable information – such as body weight and height – has a definite, statistical upper and lower limit.
Body weight is non-scalable because there are physical limitations on how much a person can weigh: while it is possible for someone to weigh 1000 lbs, it is physically impossible for anyone’s weight to reach 10,000 lbs. Because the properties of such non-scalable information are clearly limited, it’s possible for us to make meaningful predictions about averages.
On the other hand, non-physical or fundamentally abstract things, like the distribution of wealth or album sales, are scalable. For example, if you sell your album in digital form through iTunes, there’s no limit to how many sales you might make because distribution is not limited by the amount of physical copies you could manufacture. Furthermore, because the transactions take place online, there is no shortage of physical currency to prevent you from selling a trillion albums.
This difference between scalable and non-scalable information is crucial if you want to have an accurate picture of the world. And trying to apply those rules that are effective with non-scalable information to scalable data will only lead to mistakes.
For example, say that you want to measure the wealth of the population of England. The simplest way to do this is to work out their per capita wealth, by adding up their total income and dividing that figure by the number of citizens.
However, wealth is actually scalable: it’s possible for a tiny percentage of the population to own an incredibly large percentage of the wealth.
By merely collecting data on the per capita income, you end up with a representation of income distribution that probably doesn’t accurately reflect the actual reality of the citizens of England.
The Black Swan Key Idea #6: We are far too confident in what we believe we know.
We all like to keep ourselves safe from harm, and one of the ways that we do this is assessing and managing the possibility of risk. This is why we buy things like accident insurance, and we try not to “put all our eggs in one basket.”
Most of us try our best to measure risks as accurately as possible to ensure that we don’t miss out on opportunities, while also ensuring that we don’t do something we may later regret.
To achieve this we have to evaluate any possible risks and then measure the probability that these risks will materialize.
For example, imagine you are in the market to purchase insurance. You want to buy the kind of policy that will protect you against the worst-case scenario, but also will not be a waste of money. In this case, you’d have to measure the threat of disease or accident against the consequences of those events transpiring, and then make an informed decision.
Unfortunately, we are far too confident that we know all the possible risks which we need to protect ourselves against. This is called the ludic fallacy, and according to it, we tend to handle risk as we would a game, with a set of rules and probabilities that we can determine before we play.
Yet, treating risk like a game is itself risky business. For example, casinos want to make as much money as possible, which is why they have elaborate security systems and ban players that win too much, too frequently.
But their approach is based on the ludic fallacy. The major threats to casinos may not be lucky gamblers or thieves, but rather, for example, a kidnapper who takes the owner’s child hostage, or an employee failing to submit the casino’s earnings with the IRS. The casino’s greatest threats might be completely unpredictable.
As this shows, no matter how hard we try, we’ll never be able to accurately calculate every risk.
Next, we’ll find out how being aware of our ignorance is far better than remaining unaware of it.
The Black Swan Key Idea #7: Taking an inventory of what you don’t know will help you to assess risks better.
We’ve all heard the phrase “knowledge is power.” However, sometimes we’re constrained by what we know, and at these times recognizing what you don’t know is far more advantageous.
Indeed, by focusing only on what you know, you limit your perception of all the possible outcomes of a given event, and create fertile ground for the occurrence of Black Swan events.
For example, say you want to purchase stocks in a company, but your knowledge of stock statistics is limited to the period 1920-28 – one year before the greatest stock market crash in US history. In that case, you’d observe a few small dips and peaks, but in general you’d notice that the trend is upward. So, thinking that this trend must continue, you spend your life savings on stocks. The next day, however, the market crashes and you lose everything you have.
If you’d studied the market a little more, you would have observed the numerous booms and busts throughout history. By focusing only on what we know, we open ourselves to great and unmeasured risks.
On the other hand, if you can at least establish what it is that you don’t know, then you’d be able to greatly reduce your risk.
Good poker players understand this principle well, as it’s crucial to their success at the game.
While they know the rules of the game, and the probabilities that their opponents have better cards than they do, they are also aware that there is certain, relevant information they don’t know – such as their opponent’s strategy, and how much their opponent can stand to lose.
Their knowledge of these unknowns contributes to a strategy that doesn’t focus solely on their own cards, thus enabling them to make a far more informed assessment of the risk.
The Black Swan Key Idea #8: Having a good understanding of our limitations as human beings can help us to make better choices.
Perhaps the best defense against falling into the cognitive traps we’ve seen is a good understanding of the tools that we use to make predictions, and their limitations.
While knowing our own limitations certainly won’t save us from every blunder we’ll ever make, it can at least help us to reduce our bad decision-making.
For instance, if you’re aware that you are subject to cognitive bias, like everyone else, then it’s much easier to recognize when you’re only looking for information that confirms what you already believe to be true.
Likewise, if you know that we humans like to organize everything into neat, causal narratives, and that this kind of approach simplifies the complexity of the world, then you’ll be more likely to search for further information to gain a better view of the “whole picture.”
Just this small amount of critical self-analysis can help you gain a competitive advantage over others in your field.
It’s certainly preferable to be aware of your shortcomings. For example, if you know that there will always be unforeseeable risks in pursuing any opportunity, despite how promising that opportunity seems, you’ll probably be less inclined to invest heavily in it.
While we cannot triumph over randomness or our limited capacity for understanding the vast complexity of our world, we can at least mitigate the damage inflicted by our ignorance.
In Review: The Black Swan Book Summary
The key message in this book:
Even though we’re constantly making predictions about the future, we’re actually terrible at it. We put far too much confidence in our knowledge and underestimate our ignorance. Our over-reliance on methods that seem to make sense, our basic inability to understand and define randomness, and even our biology, all contribute to poor decision making, and sometimes to “Black Swans” – events we believe to be impossible but which end up redefining our understanding of the world.
Be suspicious of “because.”
Although it is absolutely in our nature to look for linear, causal relationships between events in order to make sense of this complex world, the reality is that we are absolutely pitiful at both making predictions of the future and establishing causes for the present. Rather than feeding our desire to see events in clear-cut cause and effect, it’s better to instead consider a number of possibilities without being married to any single one.
Know what you don’t know.
If you want to make meaningful predictions about the future – which, if you are buying insurance, making investments, attending college, changing jobs, conducting research, or just being a human, then you certainly do – then it’s simply not enough to take all of the “knowns” into consideration. This leaves you with only a partial understanding of the risks involved in your prediction. Instead, you should also be consciously aware of what you don’t know, so that you don’t unnecessarily limit the information that you are working with.
The Black Swan ya Nassim Nicholas Taleb ni kitabu cha kwanza katika orodha ya vitabu vya kisasa. Chukua mawazo makuu katika kitabu hicho kwa muhtasari huu wa haraka. The Black Swan ya Nassim Nicholas Taleb inachunguza asili ya kile tunachokiona kama matukio ya nasibu, na vile vile mitego ya mantiki ambayo husababisha tupoteze picha kubwa. "Hizi matukio ya kuonekana kuwa ya bahati mbaya, ambayo mara nyingi huwa na matokeo makubwa kwa mtu binafsi na hata kwa jamii kwa ujumla, anaita ""Black Swans"" na inatuwezesha kuelewa vizuri zaidi mapungufu yetu wenyewe linapokuja suala la kufanya utabiri." Hii inaweza kutusaidia kutambua wakati uamuzi wetu umefichwa na hamu ya kuingiza habari katika hadithi safi, rahisi kuelewa. Katika muhtasari huu wa kitabu, utapata jinsi ya kuepuka kuchanganyikiwa kelele kwa maarifa, na jinsi ya kufanya matumizi bora ya ujinga wako. Utajifunza kwa nini kufikiri kama Uturuki kunaweza kuwa mbaya kwa afya yako. Pia utapata sababu kwa nini tisho kubwa zaidi kwa casino inaweza kweli kuwa na kitu cha kufanya na kamari. Hatimaye, utagundua kwa nini "kujua kile usichokijua" kunaweza kukuokoa usipoteze akiba yako ya maisha. The Black Swan Key Idea # 1: <unk>Black Swans<unk> ni matukio walidhani uongo nje ya uwanja wa uwezekano, na bado kutokea hata hivyo. Kama wanadamu, sisi ni bora sana katika kugeuza vichocheo vyote kutoka kwa mazingira yetu kuwa habari zenye maana. Hii ni vipaji ambavyo vimetuwezesha kuunda mbinu ya kisayansi, kutafakari juu ya asili ya kuwa na kubuni mifano tata ya hisabati. Lakini kwa sababu tu tunaweza kutafakari na kupanga ulimwengu unaotuzunguka haimaanishi kwamba sisi ni wazuri sana katika hilo. Kwanza, tuna mwelekeo wa kuwa na maoni madogo-madogo kuhusu ulimwengu. Mara tu tunapokuwa na wazo kuhusu jinsi ulimwengu unavyofanya kazi, tuna mwelekeo wa kushikamana nalo. Lakini kwa sababu ujuzi wa kibinadamu unakua na kubadilika daima, mbinu hiyo ya kidogoma haina maana. Kwa mfano, miaka mia mbili iliyopita, madaktari na wanasayansi walikuwa na uhakika mkubwa katika maarifa yao ya dawa, lakini leo imani yao inaonekana kuwa ya kipumbavu: tu kufikiria kwenda kwa daktari wako kulalamika juu ya homa ya kawaida, na kupewa dawa ya nyoka na leeches! Kuwa na imani juu ya imani zetu hutufanya tuwe vipofu kwa dhana hizo ambazo zinaanguka nje ya mifano ambayo tayari tumekubali kuwa ya kweli. Kwa mfano, inawezekanaje kuelewa tiba ikiwa hujui kwamba vijidudu vipo? Unaweza kupata ufafanuzi wenye busara wa ugonjwa lakini utakuwa na kasoro kwa sababu ya ukosefu wa habari muhimu. Aina hii ya kufikiri kwa uthabiti yaweza kusababisha mshangao mkubwa. Wakati mwingine tunashangazwa na matukio si kwa sababu ni ya nasibu, lakini kwa sababu mtazamo wetu ni nyembamba sana. "Hiyo ni kwa sababu ya ""swan nyeusi"" ambayo inaweza kutufanya tufikirie upya maoni yetu ya ulimwengu: kabla ya mtu yeyote kuona swan nyeusi, watu walidhani kwamba swan wote walikuwa weupe." Kwa sababu hiyo, picha zao zote na mawazo yao ya swan yalikuwa meupe, ikimaanisha kwamba nyeupe ilikuwa sehemu muhimu ya swaness. Kama utaona, Black Swans inaweza kuwa kama trivial kama kujifunza kwamba si swans wote ni nyeupe, au kama maisha ya kubadilisha kama kupoteza kila kitu kwa sababu ya ajali ya soko la hisa. Black Swan: Mifano ya Kiongozi wa Black Swan: Mifano ya Black Swan inaweza kuwa na matokeo ya kutisha kwa wale ambao ni vipofu kwa ajili yao. Athari ya Black Swan si sawa kwa sisi sote. Wengine wataathiriwa sana na hayo, wengine hawatathiriwa hata kidogo. "Uwezo wa athari zao unategemea sana upatikanaji wako wa habari muhimu: habari zaidi unayo, uwezekano mdogo wa kugongwa na ""Black Swan"" na ujinga zaidi, hatari zaidi." Kwa mfano, fikiria mfano wa msichana mmoja aliyepiga mbio na farasi wake mpendwa, Rocket. Kwa sababu ya ujenzi wa Rocket, rekodi yake, ustadi wa jockey, na ushindani duni, unaamini kwamba Rocket ni bet salama na kucheza kamari kila kitu unachokuwa nacho kwenye farasi kushinda. Sasa fikiria mshangao wako wakati bunduki ya kuanza inapopigwa risasi na Rocket sio tu haondoki milango lakini huchagua badala yake kulala tu kwenye njia. Hii ingekuwa tukio la Black Swan. Kwa kuzingatia habari uliyokuwa umekusanya, kushinda kwa Roketi kulikuwa ni beti salama, lakini ulipoteza kila kitu mara tu mbio zilipoanza. Lakini tukio hilo halitakuwa janga kwa kila mtu. Kwa mfano, mmiliki wa Rocket alipata utajiri kwa kubashiri dhidi ya farasi wake mwenyewe. Tofauti na wewe, alikuwa na habari za ziada, akijua kwamba Rocket alikuwa anaenda kupiga marufuku kupinga ukatili wa wanyama. Kiasi hicho kidogo tu cha habari kilimwokoa asipatwe na tukio la Black Swan. Athari za Black Swans zinaweza pia kutofautiana sana katika kiwango. Badala ya kuathiri watu mmoja-mmoja tu, nyakati nyingine jamii nzima-nzima zaweza kupatwa na Panya-Mwitu. Wakati hii inatokea, Black Swan inaweza kubadilisha jinsi ulimwengu unavyofanya kazi, ikiathiri maeneo mengi ya jamii, kama falsafa, theolojia na fizikia. Kwa mfano, Copernicus aliposema kwamba Dunia si kitovu cha ulimwengu, matokeo yalikuwa makubwa, kwa kuwa uvumbuzi wake ulipinga mamlaka ya Wakatoliki wenye kutawala na mamlaka ya kihistoria ya Biblia yenyewe. Mwishowe, Black Swan huyu hasa alisaidia kuanzisha mwanzo mpya kwa jamii yote ya Ulaya. Black Swan: Sisi ni rahisi sana kudanganywa na hata ya msingi ya mantiki makosa. Ingawa inaonekana kwamba wanadamu ndio wanyama wenye akili zaidi duniani, bado kuna njia ndefu ya kwenda kabla hatujaweza kuvunja mazoea yetu yote mabaya. Mazoea hayo yanatia ndani kutunga hadithi kwa kutegemea mambo tunayojua kuhusu wakati uliopita. Ingawa tunaelekea kuamini kwamba wakati uliopita ni ishara nzuri ya wakati ujao, mara nyingi hilo ni kosa. Inatufanya tuwe na uwezekano wa kufanya makosa kwa sababu kuna mambo mengi yasiyojulikana ambayo yanaweza kupingana na hadithi zetu. Kwa mfano, fikiria kwamba wewe ni kaluki anayeishi katika shamba. Kwa miaka mingi mkulima amekulisha, amekuruhusu kuzurura kwa uhuru, na kukupa mahali pa kuishi. Kwa kutumia wakati uliopita kama mwongozo wako, hakuna sababu ya kutarajia kwamba kesho inapaswa kuwa tofauti. """Siku ya kesho ni siku ya shukrani, na wewe umekatwa kichwa, umejaa viungo, umepigwa ndani ya tanuri, na kulawa na wale waliokuhifadhi na kukulisha." Kama mfano huu unavyoonyesha, kuamini kwamba tunaweza kutegemea utabiri kuhusu wakati ujao juu ya maarifa ya zamani ni kosa lenye matokeo mabaya. Udanganyifu kama huo ni upendeleo wa uthibitisho: mara nyingi tunatafuta ushahidi tu kwa imani hizo ambazo tumefanya tayari, hata kwa kiwango ambacho tunapuuza ushahidi wowote unaopingana nao. Tunapokutana na habari inayopingana na kile tunachoamini tayari, ni vigumu kukubali na hata ni vigumu zaidi kuchunguza zaidi. Kama sisi kufanya uchunguzi, sisi pengine kuangalia kwa vyanzo kwamba kudhoofisha habari hii. Kwa mfano, ikiwa unaamini sana kwamba "mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa" ni njama lakini kisha hutokea kuona filamu ya maandishi inayoitwa "Ushahidi usioweza kupuuzwa wa Mabadiliko ya Hali ya Hewa", inawezekana kwamba utakuwa na wasiwasi. "Ikiwa, baada ya hili, umefanya utafutaji wa wavuti kwa habari kuhusu mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, ni uwezekano mkubwa zaidi kwamba maneno ya utafutaji unayotumia yatakuwa ""udanganyifu wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa"" na sio ""uthibitisho kwa ajili na dhidi ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa.""" Black Swan: Njia ambayo ubongo wetu unagawanya habari hufanya utabiri sahihi kuwa mgumu sana. Katika kipindi cha mageuzi, ubongo wa binadamu umebuni njia fulani za kuainisha habari. Ingawa hizi zilikuwa nzuri kwa ajili ya kuishi katika pori, wakati tulihitaji kujifunza na kukabiliana haraka na mazingira yetu hatari, wao ni mbaya katika mazingira ya leo tata. "Kwa mfano, njia moja ya kutofautisha habari kwa makosa ni kile kinachoitwa ""kutoelewa kwa hadithi,"" ambapo tunaunda hadithi za mstari ili kuelezea hali yetu ya sasa." Hii ni kwa sababu ya kiasi kikubwa cha habari sisi ni inakabiliwa na kila siku. Ili kuelewa mambo hayo yote, ubongo wetu huchagua tu habari unaoziona kuwa muhimu. Kwa mfano, ingawa labda unakumbuka kile ulichokula kwa kiamsha-kinywa asubuhi hii, ni jambo la kushangaza kwamba unakumbuka rangi ya viatu vya kila mtu kwenye gari-moshi la chini ya ardhi. Ili kutoa maana kwa vipande hivi visivyo na uhusiano wa habari, tunavifanya kuwa hadithi yenye muunganisho. Kwa mfano, unapotafakari juu ya maisha yako mwenyewe, labda unachagua tu matukio fulani kama yenye maana, na unaorodhesha matukio hayo katika hadithi ambayo inaelezea jinsi ulivyo kuwa wewe. Kwa mfano, unapenda muziki kwa sababu mama yako alikuimbia nyimbo za The Beatles kila usiku. Hata hivyo, kuunda hadithi kama hizo ni njia mbaya ya kupata uelewa wowote wenye maana wa ulimwengu. Hii ni kwa sababu mchakato hufanya kazi tu kwa kuangalia nyuma juu ya zamani, na haina kuzingatia maelezo karibu-hakina ambayo inawezekana kwa tukio lolote moja. Ukweli ni kwamba matukio madogo, yanayoonekana kuwa yasiyo na maana, yanaweza kuwa na matokeo makubwa yasiyotazamiwa. Kwa mfano, fikiria kwamba kipepeo anayepiga mabawa yake nchini India husababisha kimbunga mwezi mmoja baadaye katika jiji la New York. Kama sisi orodha kila hatua ya sababu na athari katika mchakato huu kama wao kutokea, basi tungekuwa na uwezo wa kuona wazi, uhusiano wa kisababishi kati ya matukio. Lakini kwa kuwa tunaona tu matokeo - katika kesi hii, kimbunga - basi tunaweza tu kukisia ni ipi kati ya matukio yanayotokea wakati huo huo ambayo kwa kweli yaliathiri matokeo hayo. Black Swan Key Idea # 5: Sisi si kwa urahisi kutofautisha kati ya habari scalable na non-scalable. Sisi wanadamu tumebuni mbinu na mifano mingi ya kuainisha habari na kufahamu ulimwengu. Kwa bahati mbaya, hata hivyo, sisi si nzuri sana katika kutofautisha kati ya aina tofauti za habari - muhimu zaidi kati ya "scalable" na "non-scalable" habari. Lakini tofauti kati ya aina hizo ni ya msingi. Habari zisizoweza kupandishwa <unk> kama vile uzito wa mwili na urefu <unk> zina kikomo cha juu na cha chini cha takwimu. Uzito wa mwili hauwezi kubadilika kwa sababu kuna mipaka ya kimwili juu ya jinsi mtu anaweza kupima: wakati inawezekana kwa mtu kupima pauni 1000, ni haiwezekani kimwili kwa mtu yeyote kufikia pauni 10,000. Kwa sababu mali ya habari kama hizo zisizoweza kupinduliwa ni wazi mdogo, ni uwezekano kwa ajili yetu kufanya utabiri wenye maana kuhusu wastani. Kwa upande mwingine, mambo yasiyo ya kimwili au ya msingi, kama vile usambazaji wa utajiri au mauzo ya albamu, yanaweza kubadilishwa. Kwa mfano, kama kuuza albamu yako katika fomu ya digital kupitia iTunes, hakuna kikomo kwa jinsi ya mauzo mengi unaweza kufanya kwa sababu usambazaji si mdogo na kiasi cha nakala za kimwili unaweza kutengeneza. Kwa kuongezea, kwa sababu shughuli hufanyika mtandaoni, hakuna uhaba wa sarafu halisi ili kukuzuia kuuza albamu za trilioni. Tofauti hii kati ya habari inayoweza kubadilishwa na isiyoweza kubadilishwa ni muhimu ikiwa unataka kuwa na picha sahihi ya ulimwengu. Na kujaribu kutumia sheria hizo ambazo ni ufanisi na habari zisizo scalable kwa data scalable itasababisha tu makosa. Kwa mfano, tuseme kwamba unataka kupima utajiri wa idadi ya watu wa Uingereza. Njia rahisi ya kufanya hivyo ni kuongeza mapato ya kila mtu na kugawanya kwa idadi ya wananchi. Hata hivyo, utajiri ni kweli scalable: inawezekana kwa asilimia ndogo ya idadi ya watu kumiliki asilimia kubwa sana ya utajiri. Kwa kukusanya tu data juu ya mapato ya mtu mmoja, wewe kuishia na uwakilishi wa usambazaji wa mapato ambayo pengine haina sahihi kutafakari hali halisi ya wananchi wa Uingereza. Black Swan: Tuna uhakika sana katika kile tunachoamini tunajua Sisi sote tunapenda kujilinda na madhara, na moja ya njia tunayofanya hivyo ni kutathmini na kusimamia uwezekano wa hatari. "Hii ndiyo sababu tunanunua vitu kama bima ya ajali, na tunajaribu ""kuweka mayai yetu yote katika kikapu kimoja"" - wengi wetu tunajaribu kadiri tuwezavyo kupima hatari kwa usahihi iwezekanavyo ili kuhakikisha kwamba hatupotezi fursa, wakati pia kuhakikisha kwamba hatufanyi kitu ambacho tunaweza kujuta baadaye." Ili kufikia hili tunapaswa kutathmini hatari zozote zinazowezekana na kisha kupima uwezekano kwamba hatari hizi zitatokea. Kwa mfano, fikiria kwamba uko sokoni kununua bima. Unahitaji kununua aina ya sera ambayo itakukinga dhidi ya hali mbaya zaidi, lakini pia haitakuwa kupoteza pesa. Katika kesi hii, unapaswa kupima tishio la ugonjwa au ajali dhidi ya matokeo ya matukio hayo yanayotokea, na kisha kufanya uamuzi wa habari. Kwa bahati mbaya, tuna uhakika sana kwamba tunajua hatari zote zinazowezekana ambazo tunahitaji kujilinda dhidi yake. Hii inaitwa ludic fallacy, na kulingana na hiyo, tunaelekea kushughulikia hatari kama vile tutafanya mchezo, na seti ya sheria na uwezekano ambao tunaweza kuamua kabla ya kucheza. Hata hivyo, kutibu hatari kama mchezo ni biashara yenye hatari. Kwa mfano, kasinon wanataka kupata pesa nyingi iwezekanavyo, na kwa hivyo wana mifumo ya usalama iliyoundwa na kupiga marufuku wachezaji ambao wanashinda sana, mara nyingi sana. Lakini mbinu yao inategemea kosa la ludic. Hatari kubwa kwa kasinon inaweza kuwa si bahati wachezaji au wezi, lakini badala yake, kwa mfano, kidnapper ambaye inachukua mmiliki wa mtoto mateka, au mfanyakazi kushindwa kuwasilisha casino mapato na IRS. Tisho kubwa zaidi la kasino linaweza kuwa lisilotazamiwa kabisa. Kama hii inaonyesha, bila kujali jinsi ngumu sisi kujaribu, sisi kamwe kuwa na uwezo wa mahesabu sahihi kila hatari. Ifuatayo, tutajua jinsi kuwa na ufahamu wa ujinga wetu ni bora zaidi kuliko kubaki bila ufahamu wake. Black Swan Key Idea #7: Kuchukua hesabu ya kile hujui itakusaidia kutathmini hatari bora. "Tumeona maneno kama haya: ""Ujuzi ni nguvu"" lakini wakati mwingine tunapigwa na kile tunachojua, na wakati huu kutambua kile ambacho hujui ni bora zaidi." Kwa kweli, kwa kuzingatia tu kile unachojua, unapunguza utambuzi wako wa matokeo yote yanayowezekana ya tukio fulani, na kuunda ardhi yenye rutuba kwa tukio la Black Swan. Kwa mfano, tuseme unataka kununua hisa za kampuni, lakini maarifa yako ya takwimu za hisa ni mdogo kwa kipindi cha 1920-28 - mwaka mmoja kabla ya ajali kubwa ya soko la hisa katika historia ya Marekani. Katika kesi hiyo, unaweza kuona dips chache ndogo na kilele, lakini kwa ujumla unaweza kuona kwamba mwenendo ni juu. Kwa hiyo, ukidhani kwamba mwenendo huu lazima uendelee, unatumia akiba yako ya maisha kwenye hisa. Hata hivyo, siku inayofuata, soko la hisa huanguka na unapoteza kila kitu ulicho nacho. Kama ungekuwa umejifunza soko kidogo zaidi, ungekuwa umeona mlipuko na kushuka kwa idadi kubwa katika historia yote. Kwa kuzingatia tu kile tunachojua, tunajifungua kwa hatari kubwa na zisizoweza kupimwa. Kwa upande mwingine, kama unaweza angalau kuanzisha nini ni kwamba hujui, basi unaweza kuwa na uwezo wa kupunguza sana hatari yako. Wachezaji wazuri wa poker wanaelewa kanuni hii vizuri, kama ni muhimu kwa mafanikio yao katika mchezo. Wakati wanajua sheria za mchezo, na uwezekano kwamba wapinzani wao wana kadi bora kuliko wao, pia wanajua kwamba kuna baadhi ya habari muhimu hawajui kama vile mkakati wa mpinzani wao, na kiasi gani mpinzani wao anaweza kusimama kupoteza. Ujuzi wao wa haya haijulikani inachangia mkakati ambao haukuzingatia tu kadi zao wenyewe, hivyo kuwawezesha kufanya tathmini zaidi ya habari ya hatari. Black Swan Key Idea #8: Kuwa na uelewa mzuri wa mapungufu yetu kama wanadamu inaweza kutusaidia kufanya chaguzi bora. Labda ulinzi bora dhidi ya kuanguka katika mitego ya utambuzi tumeona ni uelewa mzuri wa zana ambazo tunatumia kufanya utabiri, na mipaka yao. Ingawa kujua mipaka yetu kwa hakika hakutatuokoa kutoka kwa kila kosa tutakalofanya, angalau inaweza kutusaidia kupunguza maamuzi yetu mabaya. Kwa mfano, kama unajua kwamba wewe ni chini ya upendeleo wa utambuzi, kama kila mtu mwingine, basi ni rahisi sana kutambua wakati wewe ni tu kuangalia kwa habari ambayo inathibitisha nini tayari kuamini kuwa kweli. Vivyo hivyo, ikiwa unajua kwamba sisi wanadamu tunapenda kupanga kila kitu katika hadithi za usawa, na kwamba aina hii ya mbinu inafanya iwe rahisi utata wa ulimwengu, basi utakuwa na uwezekano mkubwa wa kutafuta habari zaidi ili kupata mtazamo bora wa picha nzima. Bila shaka ni afadhali kujua mapungufu yako. Kwa mfano, kama unajua kwamba kutakuwa na hatari zisizoweza kutabiriwa katika kufuatilia fursa yoyote, licha ya jinsi ya kuahidi kwamba fursa inaonekana, pengine utakuwa chini ya nia ya kuwekeza sana katika hilo. Ingawa hatuwezi kushinda bahati mbaya au uwezo wetu mdogo wa kuelewa utata mkubwa wa ulimwengu wetu, tunaweza angalau kupunguza uharibifu unaosababishwa na ujinga wetu. Katika Mapitio: The Black Swan Book Summary Ujumbe muhimu katika kitabu hiki: Ingawa sisi ni daima kufanya utabiri kuhusu siku zijazo, sisi ni kweli mbaya katika hilo. Tunaamini sana maarifa yetu na kupuuza ujinga wetu. "Utegemezi wetu wa kupita kiasi kwa mbinu ambazo zinaonekana kuwa na maana, kutokuwa na uwezo wetu wa msingi wa kuelewa na kufafanua nasibu, na hata biolojia yetu, zote huchangia kufanya maamuzi mabaya, na wakati mwingine kwa ""Black Swans"" matukio tunayoamini kuwa haiwezekani lakini ambayo mwishowe hufafanua tena uelewa wetu wa ulimwengu." "Hata kama ni asili yetu kutafuta uhusiano wa sababu na sababu kati ya matukio ili kuelewa ulimwengu huu tata, ukweli ni kwamba sisi ni kabisa kusikitisha katika wote kufanya utabiri wa siku zijazo na kuanzisha sababu kwa sasa. """ Badala ya kulisha hamu yetu ya kuona matukio katika wazi-cut sababu na athari, ni bora badala ya kuzingatia idadi ya uwezekano bila kuwa ndoa na yoyote moja. Jua kile usichokijua. Kama unataka kufanya utabiri wenye maana kuhusu siku zijazo - ambayo, kama wewe ni kununua bima, kufanya uwekezaji, kuhudhuria chuo kikuu, kubadilisha kazi, kufanya utafiti, au tu kuwa binadamu - basi wewe hakika kufanya - basi ni tu haitoshi kuchukua wote wa "kijulikana" katika kuzingatia. Hii inakufanya uwe na uelewa wa sehemu tu wa hatari zinazohusika katika utabiri wako. Badala yake, unapaswa pia kuwa na ufahamu wa kile usichokijua, ili usizuie bila sababu habari unayofanya kazi nayo.