March 4, 2023
Firm Power Generation 2023
The rigorous research reported in this study demonstrates that a 100% transition to renewable energy is feasible and cost effective with strategic, planned overbuilding of renewable capacity. Overbuilding solar, even a little, is found to dramatically reduce the amount (and hence cost) of the energy storage required to overcome the intermittency of renewables. The alternative is an order of magnitude more energy storage (probably Li+ batteries, given current trends) with some significant environmental and resource availability issues and more cost. The amount of overbuilding required depends on the cost of variable renewables relative to the cost of storage. Historically, the capital cost of renewables (particularly solar) has decreased more rapidly than the cost of storage so the cost-optimal amount of overbuilding increases. This sweet spot could change, and the amount of overbuilding required could decrease, if the cost of storage relative to solar decreases in the coming years.The additional renewable capacity in the over-building scenario is called “implicit storage”, as it effectively substitutes for storage.
This strategy is cost effective as compared to fossil fuels and “business as usual” because it is now cheaper to build an entirely new utility-scale solar farm and use the energy generated there than it is to operate and fuel an existing coal-fired power plant (Inside Climate News). The ever-decreasing cost of electricity from solar because of technological advancements and $0-cost fuel has eventuated a new paradigm in energy thinking. It’s the first time in human history that planning to overbuild infrastructure makes economic sense. In a 100% renewables future, the economic cost and the environmental impact are lower if we build more variable renewables than we need on an energy basis.
Because the results are quite surprising and new to many, they therefore provide crucial, new insight for RE planning purposes, as well as simply validating the claim that a 100% transition is both feasible and affordable. And as such, advocates of renewable energy should work to build public awareness of the potential for implicit storage to lower cost and hasten the transition to 100% renewable energy.
What is IEA PVPS TCP?
The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an autonomous body within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) was created with a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts with global collaboration. The programme is made up of 6.000 experts across government, academia, and industry dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies.
The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) is one of the TCP’s within the IEA and was established in 1993. The mission of the programme is to “enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” In order to achieve this, the Programme’s participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications. The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee, comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member, which designates distinct ‘Tasks,’ that may be research projects or activity areas.
The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States of America. The European Commission, Solar Power Europe, the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), the Solar Energy Industries Association, the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore and Enercity SA are also members.
Grid-connected solar power generation, either dispersed or centralized, has developed and grown at the margin of a core of dispatchable and baseload conventional generation. As the penetration of this variable resource increases, the management of the underlying core gradually becomes more complex and costly.
The challenge ahead for grid-connected solar is to evolve beyond the margin and the context of underlying conventional generation management. The present report focuses on the challenge of displacement of the underlying conventional generation core by proposing to transform intermittent variable renewable energy (VRE) resources such as solar and wind1 into firm, i.e. effectively dispatchable power generation.
Substantiated by in-depth case studies, this report infers that, almost anywhere on the planet, nearly 100% VRE power grids firmly supplying clean power and meeting demand 24/365 are not only possible but would be economically viable, provided that VRE resources are optimally transformed from unconstrained run-of-the weather generation into firm generation. VREs are then capable of entirely displacing all conventional sources economically (provided now emerging grid-forming inverter technology resolves any grid frequency and stability issues resulting from the displacement of conventional rotating power generation). The variable-tofirm transformation enablers include energy storage, the optimum blending of VREs and other renewable resources, geographic dispersion, and supply/demand flexibility. Most importantly this transformation entails overbuilding (see below) and operationally curtailing the VREs ─ a strategy we term applying implicit storage. This strategy ensures acceptable total VRE production costs, which include both generation and grid integration cost.
This paper received valuable contributions from several IEA-PVPS Task 16 members and other international experts.
Its authors are particularly grateful to Sophie Pelland (CanmetENERGY, Natural Resources Canada) for her careful review and suggestions.
Maelezo ya utafiti wa nguvu ya umeme ya 2020: Utafiti wa kina unaoelezwa katika utafiti huu unaonyesha kuwa mabadiliko ya 100% kwa nishati mbadala ni yawezekana na ya gharama nafuu na ujenzi wa kimkakati, uliopangwa wa uwezo wa mbadala. Kuongeza nishati ya jua, hata kidogo, hupunguza kiasi (na kwa hivyo gharama) ya kuhifadhi nishati inayohitajika kushinda upungufu wa nishati mbadala. Njia mbadala ni utaratibu wa ukubwa zaidi wa kuhifadhi nishati (labda Li + betri, kutokana na mwenendo wa sasa) na baadhi ya masuala muhimu ya mazingira na rasilimali upatikanaji na gharama zaidi. Kiasi cha overbuilding required inategemea gharama ya variable renewables kuhusiana na gharama ya kuhifadhi. Kwa kihistoria, gharama ya mtaji wa nishati mbadala (haswa jua) imepungua kwa kasi zaidi kuliko gharama ya kuhifadhi, kwa hivyo kiasi cha gharama bora cha ujenzi wa ziada huongezeka. "Hii inaweza kubadilika, na kiasi cha overbuilding required inaweza kupungua, kama gharama ya kuhifadhi ikilinganishwa na nishati ya jua kupungua katika miaka ijayo. uwezo wa ziada ya upya katika hali ya overbuilding inaitwa ""kuhifadhi implicit,"" kama ni ufanisi badala ya kuhifadhi." "Mkakati huu ni ufanisi wa gharama ikilinganishwa na mafuta ya makaa ya mawe na ""biashara kama kawaida"" kwa sababu sasa ni nafuu kujenga shamba jipya la jua la matumizi na kutumia nishati iliyozalishwa huko kuliko kuendesha na mafuta ya kituo cha umeme cha makaa ya mawe kilichopo (Ndani ya Habari ya Hali ya Hewa)." Kupungua kwa gharama za umeme kutoka kwa jua kwa sababu ya maendeleo ya kiteknolojia na mafuta ya gharama ya $ 0 imesababisha mfano mpya katika kufikiri kwa nishati. Ni mara ya kwanza katika historia ya binadamu kwamba mipango ya kujenga miundombinu kupita kiasi ina maana ya kiuchumi. Katika siku zijazo za 100% mbadala, gharama za kiuchumi na athari za mazingira ni chini ikiwa tutajenga mbadala zaidi ya mbadala kuliko tunahitaji kwa msingi wa nishati. Matokeo ya utafiti huu ni ya kushangaza na ya kipya kwa wengi, kwa hivyo hutoa ufahamu mpya muhimu kwa madhumuni ya mipango ya RE, na pia tu kuthibitisha madai kwamba mabadiliko ya 100% ni ya uwezekano na ya bei nafuu. Kwa hivyo, watetezi wa nishati mbadala wanapaswa kufanya kazi kujenga ufahamu wa umma wa uwezekano wa kuhifadhi kwa njia ya siri ili kupunguza gharama na kuharakisha mabadiliko ya nishati mbadala 100%. IEA PVPS TCP ni nini? Shirika la Kimataifa la Nishati (IEA) ni shirika la kimataifa la nishati lililoanzishwa mwaka 1974 na linafanya kazi katika mfumo wa Shirika la Ushirikiano wa Kiuchumi na Maendeleo (OECD). Programu ya Ushirikiano wa Teknolojia (TCP) ilianzishwa kwa imani kwamba siku zijazo za usalama wa nishati na uendelevu huanza na ushirikiano wa kimataifa. Programu hiyo inajumuisha wataalamu 6,000 kutoka serikali, vyuo vikuu na viwanda, ambao wamejitolea kuendeleza utafiti wa pamoja na matumizi ya teknolojia maalum za nishati. IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Program (PPSP) ni mpango wa kimataifa wa nishati ya umeme unaoendeshwa na IEA. "Lengo la mpango huo ni ""kuongeza juhudi za ushirikiano wa kimataifa ambazo zinawezesha jukumu la nishati ya jua ya photovoltaic kama jiwe la msingi katika mpito wa mifumo ya nishati endelevu."" ""Kwa lengo hili, washiriki wa mpango huo wamefanya miradi mbalimbali ya utafiti wa pamoja katika matumizi ya mifumo ya nishati ya PV." Programu ya jumla inaongozwa na Kamati ya Utekelezaji, iliyo na mjumbe mmoja kutoka kila nchi au shirika mwanachama, ambayo huteua "Tasks" tofauti, ambazo zinaweza kuwa miradi ya utafiti au maeneo ya shughuli. Nchi zinazoshiriki katika IEPP ni Australia, Austria, Ubelgiji, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, Ufaransa, Ujerumani, Israel, Italia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, Uholanzi, Norway, Ureno, Afrika Kusini, Uhispania, Sweden, Uswisi, Thailand, Uturuki na Marekani. Tume ya Ulaya, Solar Power Europe, Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), Chama cha Viwanda vya Nishati ya Jua, Taasisi ya Utafiti wa Nishati ya Jua ya Singapore na Enercity SA pia ni wanachama. Gridi-kuunganishwa nishati ya jua uzalishaji, ama kutawanyika au centralized, imeendelea na kukua katika pembe ya msingi wa dispatchable na baseload uzalishaji wa kawaida. Kama kupenya ya rasilimali hii kutofautiana huongezeka, usimamizi wa msingi msingi hatua kwa hatua inakuwa ngumu zaidi na gharama kubwa. Changamoto ya mbele kwa ajili ya gridi-kuunganishwa jua ni kuendeleza zaidi ya pembe na muktadha wa msingi wa usimamizi wa uzalishaji wa kawaida. Ripoti hii inazingatia changamoto ya kuhamishwa kwa msingi wa uzalishaji wa kawaida kwa kupendekeza kubadilisha rasilimali za nishati mbadala (VRE) kama vile jua na upepo katika nguvu ya nguvu. kwa ufanisi dispatchable umeme uzalishaji. Kwa kuzingatia utafiti wa kesi, ripoti hii inashughulikia kwamba karibu mahali popote duniani, karibu 100% ya gridi za umeme za VRE zinazotoa nguvu safi na kukidhi mahitaji 24 365 sio tu inawezekana lakini itakuwa ya kiuchumi, ikiwa rasilimali za VRE zimebadilishwa vizuri kutoka kwa kizazi cha hali ya hewa isiyo na kikomo hadi kizazi cha nguvu. VRE inaweza kuchukua nafasi ya vyanzo vyote vya kawaida vya umeme kwa gharama nafuu, ikiwa teknolojia ya inverter ya kuunda gridi inayoibuka sasa itatatua shida yoyote ya mzunguko wa gridi na utulivu unaosababishwa na kuhamishwa kwa uzalishaji wa umeme wa kawaida. Vifaa vya mabadiliko ya kubadilika-ku-kuimarisha ni pamoja na kuhifadhi nishati, mchanganyiko bora wa VRE na rasilimali nyingine mbadala, kutawanyika kwa kijiografia, na kubadilika kwa usambazaji na mahitaji. Muhimu zaidi mabadiliko haya inahusisha overbuilding (tazama hapa chini) na operationally kupunguza VRE - mkakati sisi wito kutumia kuhifadhi implicit. Mkakati huu inahakikisha kukubalika jumla VRE gharama za uzalishaji, ambayo ni pamoja na wote uzalishaji na gharama ya ushirikiano wa gridi. Maelezo ya utafiti huu yalitolewa na wanachama kadhaa wa IEA-PVPS Task 16 na wataalamu wengine wa kimataifa. Waandishi wake wanamshukuru hasa Sophie Pelland (CanmetENERGY, Natural Resources Canada) kwa ukaguzi wake wa uangalifu na mapendekezo.