Image credit: PTI
President Obama said in his address to young Indians in Delhi today:
I know the argument made by some that it's unfair for countries like the United States to ask developing nations and emerging economies like India to reduce your dependence on the same fossil fuels that powered our growth for over a century. But here's the truth: Even if countries like the United States curb our emissions, if countries that are growing rapidly like India, with soaring energy needs, don't embrace cleaner-energy fuels, then we don't stand a chance against climate change.
His statement cuts through years of political inertia in India on climate change. There are no two ways about the fact that the United States and the developed world have a much greater responsibility to dramatically cut carbon emissions, but India's continued dependence on coal and other fossil fuels could tip the balance toward irreversible climate change. With over a billion people on the front lines of extreme weather disasters, it's a state of climate emergency that India needs to recognize and act on.
The opportunities to leapfrog the fossil-fuel era are here, and so is the technology that is needed. What has been lacking so far is the political will that can transition us away from our addiction to conventional energy. Both Obama and Narendra Modi (NaMo) have waxed eloquent on stronger economic ties and friendly cultural relations, but their statements on climate change need to go beyond platitudes and into action.
The Reality of Climate change
In 2009 both India and the United States, along with countries around the world, signed on to an agreement to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. We've already raised the global average temperature by 1 degree, and to limit its doubling requires dramatic cuts in carbon emissions. The latest alarm came from the reputed scientific journal Nature, which pronounced that 82 percent of known global reserves of coal should be left in the ground. For India and China, 66 percent of their known coal reserves should remain unburned. It's a politically untenable target for these emerging economies, but business as usual will raise the planet's temperature by 5 degrees Celsius, effectively leaving an inhabitable planet by the turn of the century.
Obama, in his latest State of the Union address, emphasized a simple fact: 2014 was the warmest year on record, and 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have come in the first 15 years of this century.
"Rising seas, melting Himalayan glaciers, unpredictable monsoons and stronger cyclones -- few countries will be more affected by a warmer planet than India," Obama remarked in his speech today.
The Uttarakhand and Srinagar floods, the multiple cyclones devastating our eastern coast, and the debilitating droughts in central and western India are not freak accidents of nature but powerful reminders that unabated carbon emissions can have serious repercussions. By not applying the lens of climate change when viewing these events, India is locking itself into climate inaction.
The Disappointing Rhetoric
"When we think about the future generations and what kind of a world we are going to give them, then there is pressure," Modi said in a news conference with Obama on Sunday. "Global warming is a huge pressure."
This pressure is unabashedly ignored when it comes to exploiting coal reserves for economic growth, as India plans to double its coal production by 2019.
Modi's Make in India campaign is a clarion call for investments from around the world, and to ensure a "business-friendly" environment, a slew of measures are being adopted to systematically dilute norms and policies that safeguard the environment and the rights of people to their land and welfare.
"Growth can't be measured by GDP; it has to make lives better," said Obama in his address to business leaders in India, an indirect contradiction of Modi's economic policies that uphold the GDP supremacy.
The two leaders agreed on phasing out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a greenhouse gas with greater global-warming potential. It is a welcome move, but the real threat of climate change comes from our carbon emissions, and the most important source of carbon-dioxide emissions are coal-based power plants. That is one important reason that President Obama proposed a plan for enforcing pollution standards in power plants in the U.S. that would cut carbon-dioxide emissions by 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
India has no such emission targets, but what is urgently needed is clear commitment in enforcing pollution standards to avoid a brewing health crisis in the country. A recent report substantiates this with numbers that suggest that almost a quarter million people die prematurely from coal-related pollution, a statistic that should have us thinking hard about our energy choices.
A Dearth of Nuance
The Indian media's lack of sophistication on subjects like climate change is appalling. While every twitch by the two leaders got primetime coverage, on the subject of climate change, which featured prominently in Obama's speech, there was hardly a discussion worth noting. The media continues to uncritically toe the line of the government, adopting a highly nationalistic position on climate change that divides the issue along both developmental and post-colonial lines.
The implications of climate change for more than a billion Indians and India's responsibility as the third-largest carbon emitter scream for more attention than climate change gets. The important social and developmental priorities with which India prefaces its climate stance will be under greater pressure if global warming exacerbates, a fact that we fail to see, owing partly to poor debates on the subject in the Indian media.
Road to Paris
One hundred ninety-three countries are expected to arrive at a global agreement in Paris this year to tackle climate change. India is predictably a key player in the negotiations, but very little is expected of the country in terms of carbon cuts. While taking on absolute emission targets can potentially be damaging to India's interests, a clear and unambiguous commitment to phasing out coal is in the best interest of the country and the world.
India's ambitious targets for expanding solar energy are welcome, but providing energy access to 300 million Indians living in darkness and safeguarding their lives from climate impacts requires a much more dramatic shift away from coal. That transition can begin now, when all indicators suggest that solar and coal are almost at grid parity. With depreciating prices of solar, the smarter economic choice, as some Indian businessmen have already realized, is to invest in long-term solar and other clean-energy technologies.
The NamObama phenomenon has already got the stock markets for solar energy roaring, and with climate change back in the spotlight, one can hope that there will be a greater public discourse in India on the energy choices of our future.
"Mchambuzi wa habari za India, Barack Obama, alisema katika hotuba yake kwa vijana wa India huko Delhi: ""Ninajua hoja iliyotolewa na baadhi ya watu kwamba ni haki kwa nchi kama Marekani kuwauliza mataifa yanayoendelea na uchumi unaojitokeza kama India kupunguza utegemezi wako kwa mafuta yale yale ambayo yalisababisha ukuaji wetu kwa zaidi ya karne moja." Lakini ukweli ni kwamba hata kama nchi kama Marekani zitapunguza uzalishaji wa gesi, ikiwa nchi zinazokua haraka kama India, na mahitaji ya nishati yanayopanda, hazitaki kutumia mafuta safi, basi hatutakuwa na nafasi dhidi ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Taarifa yake inakataa miaka ya ukosefu wa utendaji wa kisiasa nchini India juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. """Hakuna njia mbili kuhusu ukweli kwamba Marekani na ulimwengu uliositawi una jukumu kubwa zaidi la kupunguza uzalishaji wa kaboni, lakini utegemezi wa India wa kuendelea kwa makaa ya mawe na mafuta mengine ya visukuku unaweza kugeuza usawa kuelekea mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yasiyoweza kubadilika." "Kwa kuwa zaidi ya watu bilioni moja wako katika mstari wa mbele wa misiba ya hali ya hewa, ni hali ya dharura ya hali ya hewa ambayo India inahitaji kutambua na kuchukua hatua.""" Fursa za kuruka enzi ya mafuta ya visukuku zipo, na ndivyo ilivyo teknolojia inayohitajika. """Kilikuwa ni uhaba wa mapenzi ya kisiasa ambayo yanaweza kutupeleka mbali na uraibu wetu wa nishati ya kawaida." Obama na Narendra Modi wamekuwa wakizungumza kwa ufasaha kuhusu kuimarisha uhusiano wa kiuchumi na urafiki wa kitamaduni, lakini taarifa zao kuhusu mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa zinahitaji kupita kwenye maneno ya kawaida na kuwa vitendo. Mwaka 2009, India na Marekani pamoja na nchi nyingine duniani, zilitia saini makubaliano ya kupunguza ongezeko la joto duniani hadi digrii mbili. """Tumeongeza joto la wastani la dunia kwa digrii moja na kupunguza marudio yake inahitaji kupunguzwa kwa uzalishaji wa kaboni." "Jarida la kisayansi la Nature limesema kwamba ""ni lazima asilimia 82 ya madini ya makaa ya mawe ya dunia yaendelee kuhifadhiwa chini ya ardhi.""" India na China zina asilimia 66 ya madini yao ya makaa ya mawe ambayo hayajachomwa. "Hiyo ni lengo lisiloweza kudumishwa kisiasa kwa uchumi huu unaojitokeza, lakini ""biashara kama kawaida"" itaongeza joto la sayari kwa digrii tano, na kwa ufanisi kuacha sayari inayoweza kukaliwa na mwelekeo wa karne." Obama katika hotuba yake ya mwisho ya hali ya taifa, alisisitiza ukweli rahisi: 2014 ilikuwa mwaka wa joto zaidi katika rekodi, na 14 ya miaka 15 ya joto zaidi katika rekodi zimekuja katika miaka ya kwanza ya karne hii. "Mazingira yanayoongezeka, barafu zinazoyumbayumba, mvua za mvua zisizo na upepo, na vimbunga vikali zaidi - ni nchi chache ambazo zitaathiriwa zaidi na kuongezeka kwa joto la dunia kuliko India,"" alisema Obama katika hotuba yake ya leo." Mafuriko ya Uttarakhand na Srinagar, vimbunga vingi vinavyoharibu pwani yetu ya mashariki, na ukame unaodhoofisha katika India ya kati na magharibi sio ajali za asili, lakini ni ukumbusho wenye nguvu kwamba uzalishaji wa kaboni usio na kikomo unaweza kuwa na athari mbaya. Kwa kutotumia lensi ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa wakati wa kutazama matukio haya, India inajifungia katika kutofanya kazi ya hali ya hewa. """Tunapofikiria juu ya vizazi vijavyo na ni ulimwengu gani tutakaowapa, basi kuna shinikizo,"" alisema Modi katika mkutano wa waandishi wa habari na Obama Jumapili." "Utekelezaji wa hali ya hewa ya joto duniani ni shinikizo kubwa". India imepanga kuzidisha uzalishaji wake wa makaa ya mawe kwa mara mbili ifikapo mwaka 2019. Kampeni ya Modi ya 'Make in India' ni wito wa kuvutia uwekezaji kutoka kote ulimwenguni, na ili kuhakikisha mazingira ya "biashara ya kirafiki", hatua nyingi zinakubaliwa ili kupunguza kanuni na sera ambazo zinalinda mazingira na haki za watu kwa ardhi yao na ustawi. "Ukubwa wa uchumi hauwezi kupimwa kwa Pato la Taifa, lazima ufanye maisha kuwa bora, ""alisema Obama katika hotuba yake kwa viongozi wa biashara nchini India, kinyume cha sera za kiuchumi za Modi ambazo zinadumisha ukuu wa Pato la Taifa." Viongozi hao wawili wamekubaliana kuondoa hatua kwa hatua hidrofluorocarbons (HFCs), gesi ya chafu yenye uwezo mkubwa wa kuongeza joto la dunia. "Hii ni hatua inayopendwa, lakini tishio halisi la mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa linatokana na uzalishaji wetu wa kaboni, na chanzo muhimu zaidi cha uzalishaji wa kaboni dioksidi ni mitambo ya umeme ya makaa ya mawe. """ Rais Obama amependekeza mpango wa kutekeleza viwango vya uchafuzi wa mazingira katika mitambo ya umeme nchini Marekani, ambayo itapunguza uzalishaji wa kaboni dioksidi kwa asilimia 30 chini ya viwango vya mwaka 2005. India haina malengo kama hayo ya uzalishaji, lakini kile kinachohitajika haraka ni kujitolea wazi katika kutekeleza viwango vya uchafuzi ili kuepuka mgogoro wa afya unaojitokeza nchini. Ripoti ya hivi karibuni inathibitisha hii na takwimu ambazo zinaonyesha kuwa karibu robo ya milioni ya watu hufa mapema kutokana na uchafuzi unaohusiana na makaa ya mawe, takwimu ambayo inapaswa kutufanya tufikirie sana juu ya chaguzi zetu za nishati. "Mtazamo wa ""mwenye nguvu"" wa vyombo vya habari vya India juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ni mbaya sana." Wakati kila twitch na viongozi wawili got primetime chanjo, juu ya mada ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, ambayo featured prominently katika hotuba ya Obama, kulikuwa na vigumu majadiliano ya thamani ya kumbuka. Vyombo vya habari vinaendelea kufuata kwa ukali mstari wa serikali, na kuchukua msimamo wa kitaifa juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ambayo hugawanya suala hilo kando ya mstari wa maendeleo na baada ya ukoloni. Matokeo ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwa zaidi ya Wahindi bilioni moja na jukumu la India kama mtoaji wa tatu kwa ukubwa wa kaboni, inahitaji uangalifu zaidi kuliko mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. """Muhimu ya kijamii na maendeleo ya kipaumbele ambayo India inaelezea msimamo wake wa hali ya hewa itakuwa chini ya shinikizo kubwa ikiwa ongezeko la joto duniani linaongezeka, ukweli ambao tunashindwa kuona, kwa sehemu kwa sababu ya mjadala duni juu ya mada hii katika vyombo vya habari vya India." Mkataba wa Paris unaotarajiwa kufanyika mwaka huu, unaotarajiwa kujumuisha nchi 193, utasaidia kuimarisha ushirikiano wa kimataifa katika kupambana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. India ni mchezaji muhimu katika mazungumzo hayo, lakini kidogo sana kinatarajiwa kutoka kwa nchi hiyo katika suala la kupunguzwa kwa kaboni. """Wakati wa kuchukua malengo ya uzalishaji wa jumla inaweza kuwa na uwezekano wa kuharibu maslahi ya India, kujitolea wazi na wazi kwa kuondoa makaa ya mawe ni kwa maslahi bora ya nchi na ulimwengu." """Lengo la India la kupanua nishati ya jua linakaribishwa, lakini kutoa upatikanaji wa nishati kwa Wahindi milioni 300 wanaoishi katika giza na kulinda maisha yao kutoka kwa athari za hali ya hewa inahitaji mabadiliko makubwa zaidi mbali na makaa ya mawe." Mabadiliko hayo yanaweza kuanza sasa, wakati viashiria vyote vinapendekeza kwamba nishati ya jua na makaa ya mawe karibu na usawa wa gridi. Kwa sababu ya kupungua kwa bei ya nishati ya jua, chaguo la kiuchumi la busara, kama wafanyabiashara wa India wameona tayari, ni kuwekeza katika nishati ya jua ya muda mrefu na teknolojia nyingine za nishati safi. "Mfano wa ""NamCuba"" umesababisha masoko ya hisa ya nishati ya jua kupasuka, na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanapokuwa katika mwangaza, mtu anaweza kutumaini kuwa kutakuwa na mazungumzo makubwa ya umma nchini India juu ya chaguzi za nishati za siku zijazo."