“Gas will be a repeat of coal but quicker. When we look at power generation, you can see that going really, really quickly.”
This is what the head of company search at the Carbon Tracker Initiative told Bloomberg this month in comments on the future of natural gas in Europe, as news outlet reported that some large European utilities are having trouble finding buyers for their gas-fired plants.
The report cites Spanish Iberdrola as struggling to find buyers for gas plants. It also cites Italy’s Enel as planning to add more gas-fired generation capacity despite long-term plans to shift entirely to non-fossil fuel sources of energy.
According to Carbon Tracker, these are signs that natural gas is on its way out, in a way similar to coal. The gas phase-out, however, will be quicker than coal’s because there aren’t as many people employed in gas extraction in Europe, the carbon research initiative explains. And this, Bloomberg reports, citing calculations by Global Energy Monitor, could result in losses of more than $100 billion from building pipelines, terminals, and other infrastructure that are destined to become stranded assets by 2050.
This view is apocalyptic for gas. It does not, however, necessarily reflect reality. The report mentions the dramatic drop in solar and wind power costs over the past years. But it is also worth noting that this drop in costs has done nothing to solve the intermittency problem of these two renewable power generation sources. That’s possibly because the only technologically viable solution to this problem is battery storage—and this is nowhere near cheap. Related: The World Still Needs Hundreds Of Billions Of Barrels Of Oil
Hydrogen, while not featured in the article, is also touted as an alternative to gas, mainly for heating. Hydrogen production costs, alas, remain too high for the time being despite all the optimistic forecasts. Some believe they would never drop low enough to make the only purely renewable type of hydrogen—the only that uses electrolysis—economically viable.
Yet Britain is selling its gas-fired power plants—and not just to anyone but to private equity companies. According to Bloomberg, “Historically the involvement of private equity is to squeeze the asset to extract all remaining value.” Gas, therefore, faces a bleak future in Britain, but also in Spain and Portugal, as investors, according to the report, shun fossil fuel generation.
At the same time, Poland expects a 60-percent jump in natural gas demand as it phases out its coal-fired power plants under pressure from Brussels. Germany is sticking to its Nord Stream 2 plans despite the sanction pressure applied by the United States because it, too, is phasing out its coal power plants and also its nuclear plants. This is gas demand that will not decline anytime soon, at least until cheap energy storage is invented for solar and wind farms.
And that’s just Europe, which is further than anyone else on the way to renewable energy status. Globally, gas will continue to be popular, with demand rising until 2037, according to McKinsey. After that, it will plateau and start declining, but moderately. According to the consultancy, by 2050, gas demand will shed 0.4 percent between 2035 and 2050.
That is not so apocalyptic.
Shell, too, believes that natural gas will remain essential for the rush to net zero. In its latest LNG Outlook, the supermajor cited forecasts that see global gas demand rising strongly thanks to Asia, driving a twofold increase in LNG demand alone, from 360 million tons last year to 700 million tons in 2040.
Europe is becoming a little obsessed with its green energy agenda, it seems. This has prompted criticism from environmental scientists, but they remain a quiet minority that only has social media as an outlet for their views. Meanwhile, the continent is soldiering on in its war on fossil fuels. At the same time, it continues to rely on these fossil fuels when there is no light for the solar panels to absorb—which happened in Germany for days on end this January—and when the British offshore wind turbine fleet was hit with a wind drought a few years ago.
The reports of gas’s death many turn out to be greatly exaggerated.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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<unk>Gesi itakuwa kurudia ya makaa ya mawe lakini kwa kasi zaidi. "Kama tunavyoona, hii ni kwa sababu ya ""mfano wa kuvutia"" wa kampuni ya Carbon Tracker Initiative, ambayo inatoa maoni juu ya hali ya gesi ya asili ya Ulaya, ambayo inatoa maoni juu ya jinsi kampuni za umeme za Ulaya zinavyoweza kupata wateja wa kutosha." Ripoti hiyo inataja Iberdrola ya Uhispania kama inayopambana kupata wanunuzi wa mitambo ya gesi. Pia inataja Italia Enel kama mipango ya kuongeza zaidi gesi-kuwaka uzalishaji uwezo licha ya mipango ya muda mrefu ya kuhamia kabisa kwa non-fossil vyanzo vya nishati. Kulingana na Carbon Tracker, hii ni ishara kwamba gesi ya asili iko katika njia yake ya nje, kwa njia sawa na makaa ya mawe. Hata hivyo, kuondolewa kwa gesi kutakuwa kwa kasi zaidi kuliko makaa ya mawe kwa sababu hakuna watu wengi wanaofanya kazi katika uchimbaji wa gesi huko Ulaya, mpango wa utafiti wa kaboni unaelezea. "Kulingana na ripoti ya Bloomberg, ""Hii inaweza kusababisha hasara ya zaidi ya dola bilioni 100 kutoka kwa ujenzi wa mabomba, vituo, na miundombinu mingine ambayo imepangwa kuwa mali iliyokamatwa ifikapo 2050.""" Maoni haya ni ya mwisho kwa gesi. Hata hivyo, si lazima ionyeshe hali halisi. Ripoti hiyo inataja kupungua kwa gharama za nishati ya jua na upepo katika miaka ya hivi karibuni. Lakini ni muhimu pia kutambua kwamba kupungua kwa gharama hii haijafanya chochote kutatua tatizo la intermittency ya vyanzo hivi viwili vya uzalishaji wa umeme mbadala. Hiyo ni uwezekano kwa sababu tu kiteknolojia uwezekano ufumbuzi wa tatizo hili ni kuhifadhi betri na hii ni mahali popote karibu nafuu. "Kama ilivyoelezwa hapo juu, ""Hidrojeni bado inahitaji mamia ya mabilioni ya mapipa ya mafuta, ingawa haijaonyeshwa katika makala hii, pia inatajwa kama mbadala wa gesi, hasa kwa joto.""" Gharama za uzalishaji wa hidrojeni, kwa bahati mbaya, bado ni kubwa sana kwa sasa licha ya utabiri wote wa matumaini. Baadhi ya watu wanaamini kwamba hazitaweza kamwe kushuka chini vya kutosha kufanya aina pekee ya hidrojeni inayoweza kurejeshwa - ambayo hutumia umeme - iweze kutumika kiuchumi. Hata hivyo Uingereza ni kuuza mitambo yake ya umeme wa gesi - na si tu kwa mtu yeyote lakini kwa makampuni ya uwekezaji binafsi. "Kulingana na Bloomberg, ""Kulingana na historia, ushiriki wa uwekezaji wa kibinafsi ni kukandamiza mali ili kupata thamani yote iliyobaki,"" Gesi, kwa hivyo, inakabiliwa na siku zijazo mbaya nchini Uingereza, lakini pia Uhispania na Ureno, kwani wawekezaji, kulingana na ripoti hiyo, wanakimbia uzalishaji wa mafuta ya mafuta." Poland inatarajia kuongezeka kwa mahitaji ya gesi ya asili kwa asilimia 60 wakati inapoondoa mitambo yake ya umeme inayotumia makaa ya mawe chini ya shinikizo kutoka Brussels. Ujerumani imeendelea na mpango wake wa Nord Stream 2 licha ya vikwazo vya Marekani, kwa sababu pia inazima mitambo yake ya makaa ya mawe na nyuklia. """Hii ni mahitaji ya gesi ambayo hayatashuka wakati wowote hivi karibuni, angalau mpaka kuhifadhi nishati ya bei nafuu kwa mashamba ya jua na upepo." Na hiyo ni tu Ulaya, ambayo ni mbali zaidi kuliko mtu mwingine yeyote juu ya njia ya hali ya nishati mbadala. Gesi ya gesi itaendelea kuwa maarufu duniani kote, na mahitaji ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi ya gesi. Baada ya hapo, itasimama na kuanza kupungua, lakini kwa kiasi. Kulingana na ripoti hiyo, mahitaji ya gesi yatapungua kwa asilimia 0.4 kati ya mwaka wa 2015 na 2050. Hilo si jambo la kutisha sana. Shell, pia, inaamini kwamba gesi ya asili itabaki kuwa muhimu kwa kukimbilia kwa sifuri safi. Katika mtazamo wake wa hivi karibuni wa LNG, Supermajor ilitaja utabiri wa kuongezeka kwa mahitaji ya gesi ya ulimwengu kwa nguvu kwa sababu ya Asia, ikiendesha ongezeko la mara mbili la mahitaji ya LNG pekee, kutoka tani milioni 360 mwaka jana hadi tani milioni 700 mnamo 2040. Ulaya inaonekana kuwa na hamu kidogo na ajenda yake ya nishati ya kijani kibichi. Hii imesababisha ukosoaji kutoka kwa wanasayansi wa mazingira, lakini wanabaki kuwa wachache wa kimya ambao wana media ya kijamii tu kama njia ya maoni yao. Wakati huohuo, bara hilo linaendelea kupigana vita dhidi ya mafuta ya makaa ya mawe. Wakati huo huo, inaendelea kutegemea mafuta haya ya visukuku wakati hakuna mwanga kwa paneli za jua kuchukua - ambayo ilitokea nchini Ujerumani kwa siku nyingi mwishoni mwa Januari - na wakati meli ya turbine ya upepo ya Uingereza ilishambuliwa na ukame wa upepo miaka michache iliyopita. Ripoti za kifo cha gesi nyingi zinageuka kuwa zimezidiwa sana. Irina Slav kwa Oilprice.com Zaidi Top Reads kutoka Oilprice.com: - Bora ni bado kuja kwa ajili ya dunia ya moto mafuta kucheza - Kwa nini Iran ya kurudi kwa masoko ya mafuta si tishio kubwa - mafuta na gesi kufilisika kuruka kwa licha ya kuongezeka kwa bei ya mafuta.