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Understanding and managing complex systems like a project require some systems concepts that have been developed in other disciplines and applied to project management as a tool to make complex projects manageable.
When is a project complex? The complexity of a system is usually determined by the number of parts or activities, the degree of differentiation between the parts, and the structure of their connections. Heterogeneous and irregularly configured systems are complex, such as organisms, airplanes, and junkyards. Order is the opposite of complex. Ordered systems are homogenous and redundant, like an interstate toll booth or a production line in a factory. Complex systems have multiple interacting components whose collective behavior cannot be simply inferred from the behavior of the individual components.1
In addition to the number of parts, the degree of differentiation between parts and the number, type, and strength of relationships between parts also influences the degree of complexity. For example, the transistors in a computer have three connections to other parts of the computer, but each nerve cell in the human brain can be connected to thousands of other cells in the brain, which is why the human brain is more complex than a computer. Complexity is context dependent. A project is complex in relation to the number of activities, the type and strength of relationships to other project activities, and the degree and type of relationships to the project environment.
Projects are complex adaptive systems, which consist of many parts or activities that interact with each other in numerous and various ways. A complex adaptive system is adaptive if the activities adjust or react to the events of the environment. Successful adaptive systems adjust in a way that facilitates or allows the system or project to achieve its purpose.
The dependence of the project on the activities, the interdependence of the activities, and the specialization of the activities underscore the relationship dependence of project activities. This relationship dependence is a key aspect of complex adaptive systems. The nature of complex adaptive systems can be probed by investigating the impact of change in one activity and the effect on other activities and the behavior of the whole. Activities must be studied and understood as interrelated, connected parts of the whole. If you remove a computer chip from a computer and the computer powers down, do not assume the purpose of the chip was to provide power to the computer. If you remove or shorten a project kickoff activity, do not assume the project will finish earlier because of the dependence of later project activities on project kickoff activities. Any change to the kickoff activities will impact other activities and the entire project.
Common Core Curriculum
Complex adaptive systems have three characteristics that are also reflected in complex projects.
Complex Adaptive Systems Tend to Self-Organize
Formal organizational charts indicate reporting relationships but are not very effective at displaying project relationships. Projects organize around the work, phases, or activities. The organization of the project reacts to the nature of the work at any given phase. During the start-up meeting of a large complex project, the project manager facilitated the development of the project organization chart that included all the major partners, client leaders and key team members. After the chart was complete, the project manager ripped the chart up in front of the entire project team to demonstrate his key message, which was that there are formal reporting relationships, but the real leadership and communication will change during the life of the project. In other words, the system will adapt to meet the needs of the project at each phase.
Informally, the project team reorganizes information flows and priorities to support the current work of the project and a good project manager facilitates this adaptive behavior of the project organization by minimizing the impact of formal authority and processes.
Complex Systems Adapt to Changing Environments
A deterministic system is a system that will produce the same results if you start with the same conditions. The outcome can be reliably predicted if you know the starting conditions. For example, if you fire a rifle several times at a target, the hits on the target will be closely grouped if all the initial conditions are almost identical. A nonlinear system, or chaotic system, can produce wildly different results even if the starting conditions are almost the same. If today’s weather pattern is almost the same as it was on a previous date, the weather a week later could be entirely different. Projects are usually nonlinear systems. If we execute an identical complex project three different times, we will deliver three different outcomes. We start with the assumption that the project is deterministic and use scenarios and simulations to develop the most likely outcome, yet a small change such as the timing of someone’s vacation or a small change in the delivery date of equipment can change the entire trajectory of a project.
All projects experience some forms of environment shift during the life of the project. This is one of the reasons project managers develop an aggressive change management process. The purpose of the change management process is not to stop change but to incorporate the change into the project planning and execution processes. Projects, like all other complex adaptive systems, must respond to the evolving environment to succeed. Plan as if the project is deterministic but be prepared for unpredictable changes.
Complex Systems Coevolve with Internal and External Changes
In addition to responding to changes in the project environment, the internal project organization and environment is in a constant state of change. New people become members of the team, people quit, retire, and get sick. The office roof starts leaking, headquarters rolls out a new computer program required for all workers, or the project’s lead designer cannot get her immigration visa extended. These are real examples of events that occurred on one project, and the project team adjusted to each event. The adaptation to changes in the project’s internal situation while also adapting to the external environment reflects the coevolving nature of a complex adaptive system. An increase in the number of events within the project and the project environment that are likely to change during the life of the project is reflected in an increase in the complexity of a project.
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Projects are more likely to fail in the beginning, not in the end. This generalized statement reflects the importance of understanding the environment in which a project will be executed and the importance of developing an execution plan that can be successfully implemented within this environment. Profiling a project correctly requires a system that is relatively easy to use but that includes enough attributes to capture all the most important characteristics of a complex project. The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index (DPCI™) is one model for understanding and profiling projects (and will be explained further through the rest of this chapter). This index assesses the complexity level of key components of a project and produces a unique project profile. The profile indicates the project complexity level, which provides a benchmark for comparing projects and provides information about the characteristics of a project that can then be addressed in the project execution plan. It achieves this objective by grouping eleven attributes into four broad categories: internal, external, technological complexity, and environmental.
The DPCI provides project stakeholders with information about the project to define the experience, knowledge, skills, and abilities needed by the project manager. The DPCI also has implications for the composition, organization, and skills needed by the project leadership team. The DPCI provides information and a context for developing the project execution plan and for assessing the probability of success.
Recovery costs can be extremely high for projects where the environment is misread or the execution plan does not address critical issues of the project environment. In addition to cost overruns and delays in the project, execution plans that are not aligned with the project environment can create barriers that make recovery difficult, and in some cases, the business purpose of the project cannot be met. The DPCI is a tool to assist project stakeholders in developing a comprehensive analysis of the project environment and a project execution plan more aligned with that environment, both of which increase the likelihood of project success.
The foundation of a sound project execution plan is an assessment of the project environment. This assessment provides the information on which the execution plan is built. In the absence of an accurate assessment of the project environment, the project leadership makes assumptions and develops the execution plan around those assumptions. The quantity and quality of those assumptions will significantly influence the effectiveness of the project execution plan. The amount of information available to the project manager will increase over time and assumptions will be replaced with better information and better estimates. As better tools are developed for evaluating the project environment, better information will become available to the project manager.
The project environment includes all the conditions that can influence the outcome or success of the project, such as the project size, technological complexity, cultural and language barriers, the political landscape, and resource constraints. Understanding these influences and developing a project profile creates a foundation for building an effective project execution plan.
- Complex systems have many different parts that interact with each other in different and often unpredictable ways. They adapt to changes in their external and internal environments.
- The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index (DPCI) assesses project attributes, enabling better-informed decisions in creating the project profile.
 Stephen Jay Gould, Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin (New York: Three Rivers Press, 1996).
Complex systems have multiple interacting components whose collective behavior cannot be simply inferred from the behavior of the individual components.
The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index (DPCI™) is designed to develop a project profile that reflects different aspects of the project that will influence the approach to leading and executing the project.
consist of a large number of parts or activities that interact with each other in numerous and various ways. A complex adaptive system is adaptive if the activities adjust or react to the events of the environment. Successful adaptive systems adjust in a way that facilitates or allows the system or project to achieve its purpose.
a key aspect of complex adaptive systems, characterized by the dependence of the project on the activities, the interdependence of the activities, and the specialization of the activities.
those who have a share or interest in the organization.
A system that will produce the same results if you start with the same conditions. The outcome can be reliably predicted if you know the starting conditions.
can produce wildly different results even if the starting conditions are almost exactly the same.
The characteristics and identifiers of an activity.
A measurable outcome.
How well something meets the expected or specified requirements of its grade.
Tembelea Rekodi za Sauti kwa toleo la sauti la sehemu hii. Kuelewa na kusimamia mifumo tata kama mradi inahitaji baadhi ya mifumo dhana ambayo yamebuniwa katika taaluma nyingine na kutumika kwa usimamizi wa mradi kama chombo cha kufanya miradi ngumu kusimamiwa. Ni wakati gani mradi huwa mgumu? Utaratibu wa mfumo huamuliwa kwa idadi ya sehemu au shughuli, kiwango cha tofauti kati ya sehemu, na muundo wa uhusiano wao. Mifumo isiyo ya kawaida na isiyo ya kawaida ni tata, kama vile viumbe hai, ndege, na viwanja vya taka. Utaratibu ni kinyume cha tata. Mifumo iliyoamriwa ni ya kawaida na isiyo na maana, kama kituo cha kulipa kodi cha kati ya majimbo au mstari wa uzalishaji katika kiwanda. Mifumo tata ina vipengele vingi vinavyoingiliana ambavyo tabia ya pamoja haiwezi kuelezwa tu kutoka kwa tabia ya vipengele vya mtu binafsi.Kwa kuongezea idadi ya sehemu, kiwango cha tofauti kati ya sehemu na idadi, aina, na nguvu ya mahusiano kati ya sehemu pia huathiri kiwango cha utata. Transistors katika kompyuta zina uhusiano wa tatu na sehemu nyingine za kompyuta, lakini kila seli ya neva katika ubongo wa binadamu inaweza kuunganishwa na maelfu ya seli nyingine katika ubongo, na kwa hiyo ubongo wa binadamu ni tata zaidi kuliko kompyuta. Utata unategemea muktadha. Mradi ni tata katika uhusiano na idadi ya shughuli, aina na nguvu ya mahusiano na shughuli nyingine za mradi, na kiwango na aina ya mahusiano na mazingira ya mradi. Miradi ni mifumo tata adaptive, ambayo ni pamoja na sehemu nyingi au shughuli kwamba kuingiliana na kila mmoja katika njia nyingi na mbalimbali. Mfumo tata adaptive ni adaptive kama shughuli kurekebisha au kujibu matukio ya mazingira. Mifumo ya mafanikio ya kubadilika-badilika hujipatanisha kwa njia ambayo inawezesha au inaruhusu mfumo au mradi kufikia kusudi lake. Utegemezi wa mradi juu ya shughuli, kutegemeana kwa shughuli, na utaalam wa shughuli zinaonyesha utegemezi wa uhusiano wa shughuli za mradi. Uhusiano huu utegemezi ni kipengele muhimu cha mifumo tata adaptive. Asili ya mifumo tata ya kubadilika inaweza kuchunguzwa kwa kuchunguza athari ya mabadiliko katika shughuli moja na athari kwa shughuli nyingine na tabia ya jumla. Shughuli lazima zifundishwe na kueleweka kama sehemu zinazohusiana, zilizounganishwa za jumla. Ikiwa unaondoa chip ya kompyuta na kompyuta inazima, usidhani kwamba kusudi la chip hiyo lilikuwa kutoa nguvu kwa kompyuta. Kama kuondoa au kufupisha mradi kickoff shughuli, si kudhani mradi kukamilika mapema kwa sababu ya utegemezi wa baadaye shughuli za mradi juu ya shughuli za mradi kickoff. Mabadiliko yoyote ya shughuli za kuanza yatakuwa na athari kwa shughuli nyingine na mradi mzima. Common Core Curriculum Complex adaptive mifumo na sifa tatu ambayo pia ni kuonekana katika miradi tata. Complex Adaptive Systems Tend to Self-Organize Formal organizational charts indicate reporting relationships but are not very effective at displaying project relationships. Mifumo tata ya kubadilika-badilika huwa na mwelekeo wa kujipanga yenyewe. Miradi hupangwa kulingana na kazi, hatua, au shughuli. Shirika la mradi anajibu kwa asili ya kazi katika hatua yoyote iliyopewa. Wakati wa mkutano wa kuanza wa mradi mkubwa tata, meneja wa mradi aliwezesha maendeleo ya chati ya shirika la mradi ambayo ilijumuisha washirika wote wakuu, viongozi wa mteja na wanachama muhimu wa timu. Baada ya chati kukamilika, meneja wa mradi alivunja chati mbele ya timu nzima ya mradi ili kuonyesha ujumbe wake muhimu, ambayo ilikuwa kwamba kuna mahusiano ya kuripoti rasmi, lakini uongozi halisi na mawasiliano itabadilika wakati wa maisha ya mradi. Kwa maneno mengine, mfumo utajipatanisha ili kukidhi mahitaji ya mradi katika kila hatua. Kwa njia isiyo rasmi, timu ya mradi hupanga upya mtiririko wa habari na vipaumbele ili kusaidia kazi ya sasa ya mradi na meneja mzuri wa mradi huwezesha tabia hii ya kubadilika kwa shirika la mradi kwa kupunguza athari za mamlaka rasmi na taratibu. Mifumo ngumu: Inaweza kubadilika kwa mazingira ya kubadilika, na mfumo wa deterministic ni mfumo ambao utatoa matokeo sawa ikiwa utaanza na hali sawa. Matokeo yanaweza kutabiriwa kwa uhakika ikiwa unajua hali za mwanzo. Kwa mfano, kama wewe risasi bunduki mara kadhaa juu ya lengo, hits juu ya lengo itakuwa karibu makundi kama hali zote za awali ni karibu sawa. Mfumo usio wa mstari, au mfumo wa machafuko, waweza kutokeza matokeo tofauti sana hata ikiwa hali za kuanzia ni karibu sawa. Ikiwa hali ya hewa ya leo ni sawa na ile ya tarehe ya awali, hali ya hewa ya juma moja baadaye inaweza kuwa tofauti kabisa. Miradi ni kawaida mifumo nonlinear. Kama sisi kutekeleza sawa ngumu mradi mara tatu tofauti, sisi kutoa matokeo matatu tofauti. "Tunaanza na dhana kwamba mradi ni deterministic na kutumia matukio na simulations kuendeleza matokeo ya uwezekano mkubwa, lakini mabadiliko madogo kama vile wakati wa likizo ya mtu au mabadiliko madogo katika tarehe ya utoaji wa vifaa inaweza kubadilisha trajectory nzima ya mradi. """ Miradi yote uzoefu baadhi ya aina ya mabadiliko ya mazingira wakati wa maisha ya mradi. Hii ni moja ya sababu wasimamizi wa mradi kuendeleza mchakato wa mabadiliko ya usimamizi wa fujo. Kusudi la mchakato wa usimamizi wa mabadiliko si kuacha mabadiliko, lakini kuingiza mabadiliko katika mipango ya mradi na michakato ya utekelezaji. Miradi, kama mifumo mingine yote tata adaptive, lazima kujibu mazingira kubadilika kufanikiwa. Mpango kama mradi ni deterministic lakini kuwa tayari kwa ajili ya mabadiliko unpredictable. Mifumo Complex Coevolve na Mabadiliko ya Ndani na nje: Pamoja na kujibu mabadiliko katika mazingira ya mradi, shirika la ndani la mradi na mazingira ni katika hali ya mabadiliko ya mara kwa mara. Watu wapya wanakuwa washiriki wa timu, watu huacha, wanastaafu, na kuugua. Kwa mfano, paa la ofisi huanza kuvuja, makao makuu huanzisha programu mpya ya kompyuta inayohitajika kwa wafanyakazi wote, au mbuni mkuu wa mradi hawezi kupata visa yake ya uhamiaji. Hizi ni mifano halisi ya matukio ambayo yalitokea kwenye mradi mmoja, na timu ya mradi ilibadilisha kwa kila tukio. Marekebisho ya mabadiliko katika hali ya ndani ya mradi wakati pia kurekebisha kwa mazingira ya nje inaonyesha coevolving asili ya mfumo tata adaptive. Ongezeko la idadi ya matukio ndani ya mradi na mazingira ya mradi ambayo ni uwezekano wa kubadilika wakati wa maisha ya mradi ni kuonekana katika ongezeko la utata wa mradi. DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX Miradi ina uwezekano mkubwa wa kushindwa mwanzoni, si mwishoni. Taarifa hii ya jumla inaonyesha umuhimu wa kuelewa mazingira ambayo mradi utafanywa na umuhimu wa kuendeleza mpango wa utekelezaji ambao unaweza kutekelezwa kwa mafanikio ndani ya mazingira haya. Kuunda profile ya mradi kwa usahihi inahitaji mfumo ambayo ni rahisi kutumia lakini ambayo inajumuisha sifa za kutosha kukamata sifa zote muhimu za mradi tata. Darnall-Preston Complexity Index (DCPI) ni mfano wa kuelezea na kuelezea miradi ya ujenzi. Kiwango hiki kinapima kiwango cha utata wa vipengele muhimu vya mradi na hutokeza wasifu wa kipekee wa mradi. Profili inaonyesha kiwango cha utata wa mradi, ambayo hutoa kiwango cha kulinganisha miradi na hutoa habari kuhusu sifa za mradi ambayo inaweza kushughulikiwa katika mpango wa utekelezaji wa mradi. Inapata lengo hili kwa kuunganisha sifa kumi na moja katika makundi manne makubwa: ndani, nje, utata wa kiteknolojia, na mazingira. DPCI hutoa wadau wa mradi na habari kuhusu mradi ili kufafanua uzoefu, maarifa, ujuzi na uwezo unaohitajika na meneja wa mradi. DPCI pia ina athari kwa muundo, shirika, na ujuzi unaohitajika na timu ya uongozi wa mradi. DPI hutoa habari na muktadha kwa ajili ya kuendeleza mpango wa utekelezaji wa mradi na kwa ajili ya kutathmini uwezekano wa mafanikio. Gharama za uokoaji zinaweza kuwa za juu sana kwa miradi ambapo mazingira yamefunuliwa vibaya au mpango wa utekelezaji haushughulikia masuala muhimu ya mazingira ya mradi. Kwa kuongezea gharama za juu na ucheleweshaji katika mradi, mipango ya utekelezaji ambayo haifai kwa mazingira ya mradi inaweza kuunda vizuizi ambavyo hufanya uokoaji kuwa ngumu, na katika hali zingine, kusudi la biashara la mradi haliwezi kutimizwa. DPCI ni chombo cha kusaidia wadau wa mradi katika kuendeleza uchambuzi wa kina wa mazingira ya mradi na mpango wa utekelezaji wa mradi unaolingana zaidi na mazingira hayo, ambayo yote mawili huongeza uwezekano wa mafanikio ya mradi. Msingi wa mpango mzuri wa utekelezaji wa mradi ni tathmini ya mazingira ya mradi. Tathmini hii hutoa habari ambayo mpango wa utekelezaji ni kujengwa juu. Katika kukosekana kwa tathmini sahihi ya mazingira ya mradi, uongozi wa mradi hufanya dhana na kuendeleza mpango wa utekelezaji kuzunguka dhana hizo. Idadi na ubora wa dhana hizo itakuwa na ushawishi mkubwa juu ya ufanisi wa mpango wa utekelezaji wa mradi. Kiasi cha habari inapatikana kwa meneja wa mradi itaongezeka kwa muda na dhana itakuwa kubadilishwa na habari bora na makadirio bora. Kama zana bora ni maendeleo kwa ajili ya kutathmini mazingira ya mradi, habari bora itakuwa inapatikana kwa meneja wa mradi. Mazingira ya mradi ni pamoja na hali zote ambazo zinaweza kuathiri matokeo au mafanikio ya mradi, kama vile ukubwa wa mradi, utata wa kiteknolojia, vizuizi vya kitamaduni na lugha, mazingira ya kisiasa, na vikwazo vya rasilimali. Kuelewa ushawishi huu na kuendeleza profile mradi inajenga msingi kwa ajili ya kujenga mpango wa utekelezaji wa mradi ufanisi. - Mifumo tata ina sehemu nyingi tofauti ambazo huingiliana na kila mmoja kwa njia tofauti na mara nyingi zisizoweza kutabiriwa. Wao hujirekebisha kulingana na mabadiliko ya mazingira yao ya nje na ya ndani. Darnall-Preston Complexity Index (DPCI) ni kiwango cha juu cha utata wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi wa mradi. "Stephen Jay Gould, ""Nyumba kamili: Kuenea kwa ubora kutoka Plato hadi Darwin"" (New York: Three Rivers Press, 1996)." Mifumo tata ina vipengele vingi vinavyoingiliana ambavyo tabia ya pamoja haiwezi kuelezwa tu kutoka kwa tabia ya vipengele vya mtu binafsi. Darnall-Preston Complexity Index (DPC) ni kipimo cha mradi wa kimataifa ambacho kinaonyesha jinsi mradi unavyoweza kuelekezwa na kutekelezwa. Ni sehemu au shughuli nyingi ambazo zinaingiliana kwa njia nyingi na tofauti. Mfumo tata adaptive ni adaptive kama shughuli kurekebisha au kujibu matukio ya mazingira. Mifumo ya mafanikio ya kubadilika-badilika hujipatanisha kwa njia ambayo inawezesha au inaruhusu mfumo au mradi kufikia kusudi lake. Mfumo wa adaptive ni sehemu muhimu ya mfumo tata adaptive, sifa na utegemezi wa mradi juu ya shughuli, kutegemeana ya shughuli, na utaalam wa shughuli. wale ambao wana sehemu au maslahi katika shirika. Mfumo ambao utatoa matokeo sawa ikiwa utaanza na hali sawa. Matokeo yanaweza kutabiriwa kwa uhakika ikiwa unajua hali za mwanzo. inaweza kutoa matokeo tofauti sana hata kama hali za kuanza ni karibu sawa. Sifa na vitambulisho vya shughuli. Matokeo yanayoweza kupimwa. Jinsi kitu kinavyokidhi mahitaji yanayotarajiwa au yaliyotajwa ya darasa lake.