The conquest of the Great Russian Plain by non-native people, the Eastern Slavs, can be considered the beginning of the economic history of Russia. At this time, trade with European people was the priority of Russian economic civilization. The second economic civilization was also based on agriculture, and after that, trade relations with the Byzantine Empire were gradually formed. The Romanovs also chose a combination of Western-oriented Westernism under the head of Peter the Great and anti-Western Westernism under the head of Nicholas I, Alexander III, and Nicholas II. Despite the initial idealistic view, the Soviet Union was faced with several domestic contradictions of economic, political, and identity dimensions; in the end, Gorbachev's political and economic reforms revealed these contradictions and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and then Yeltsin's shock therapy program with the incompatibility between the old and new institutions led to the worsening of the situation and the rise of oligarchy. In his Ph.D. thesis at St. Petersburg University entitled Natural Resources and Raw Materials and Development Strategies for the Russian Economy, Putin emphasized the most important advantage of Russia, i.e., crude oil and natural gas resources, and he considered the way to return Russia's greatness to use these two sources to gain power. In this connection, since Putin's rise to the sphere of Russian politics, the energy sector has been the focus of the attention of the Russian government. Over time, Russia has 12 large pipelines for the export of oil and gas. The capacity of oil and gas pipelines is 6.46 million barrels per day and 408 billion cubic meters, respectively. Statistics show that Russia used only 60% of the export capacity of its oil and gas pipelines before the outbreak of the COVID-19 disease, i.e., 2020. The following figure shows the main Russian oil and gas export pipelines.
The Ukraine war is rooted in Putin's energetic views. Failure to pay attention to energy export and earning income caused the decline of Russia's economic situation after the collapse. Paying attention to the energy industry and recovering large companies from the hands of the oligarchs strengthened Putin's power. The non-cooperation of Ukraine in the development of Russian pipelines and the non-payment of debts due to excessive gas consumption (committed to Europe) by Ukraine led to the interruption of natural gas flow in four pipelines left over from the Soviet Union and, finally, the occupation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014. The joint cooperation between Putin and Merkel made it possible for Russia to reduce its energy export dependence on Ukraine by completing the Nord Stream 1 pipeline while accessing financial resources from gas exports. Putin and Merkel's agreement to build the second branch of the Nord Stream pipeline, this time financed by the Russians, was opposed by the United States and sanctioned by the manufacturing companies. Nord Stream 2 was completed when Merkel's government reached the end of the line, and the new German government refused to implement agreements with Russia, leaving the $11 billion pipeline for Russia. This is one of the reasons for Putin's decision to attack Ukraine.
In a year since the Russian attack on Ukraine, the situation of the energy market has faced the biggest changes. Crude oil prices in March 2020 for Brent and West Texas Intermediate were $18 and $37, respectively. After February 24, 2022, and the occupation of eastern Ukraine by Russian forces, Brent reached $124 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate $119 per barrel in March 2022, respectively. This big gap in the price of an industrial product shows the deep effect of Russia's aggression on Ukraine. The continuation of this war continues to overshadow the energy market. The main effects of the Ukraine war are as follows:
- This event has led consumers of energy carriers to explore new technologies and further develop renewable energies. New methods in the field of access to energy carriers, such as how to produce hydrogen or use a fuel cell, are among the new technologies. Also, the cost of generation from solar and wind power plants continues to decline. The latest report of the Lazard Institute shows that the production of one-kilowatt hour of electricity from clean energy is equal to the production of the same amount in the fossil power plant sector with a thermal cycle.
- Another effect of this war is that the consumption of renewable energy, such as natural gas and coal, will increase at least until 2025. With Russia's attack, European countries had no choice but to revive coal-fired power plants. On the other hand, they were forced to declare that natural gas is a clean energy carrier, while in 2017, they strictly prohibited investing in natural gas.
- Increasing focus on energy security due to concerns about energy shortages and vulnerability to geopolitical events made countries and regions in the world try to reduce their dependence on imported energy and instead consume more of their production energy. This process will continue.
- The change in the composition of energy sources is one of the important effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the global energy system. Also, more motivation has been created to improve energy productivity, and on the other hand, it challenges the need to diversify the energy portfolio.
- Increasing food and energy prices have contributed to a sharp decrease in global economic growth. The direct economic effect of this price shock is going to be with the world for the next few years. In addition, war slows down the progress of world trade because different countries and regions of the world focus on the domestic economy and reduce the risk of exposure to international shocks. This slowdown in the pace of globalization will lead to a slight decrease in average economic growth over the next 30 years.
- Prioritizing the energy produced inside each country, which is caused by increasing energy security concerns, reduces the import of oil and natural gas. This effect will be particularly evident in China and India, which currently import between 75 and 85% of the oil they use and between 40 and 55% of their natural gas.
- The future of Russia's energy resources is uncertain. Various outlook scenarios of specialized energy organizations predict a continuous decrease in Russian fossil fuel exports. In the short term, this case shows the effect of voluntary and mandatory sanctions on Russian energy exports. In addition, it is assumed that the sanctions affecting Russia's access to foreign investments and technology will be gradually decreased. On the other hand, considering the European Union's dependence on natural gas imports from Russia before Russia's military attack on Ukraine and its strong dependence on oil and gas imports from other countries, the effect of increasing energy security concerns in a united Europe will also be evident.
- The European Union, China, and India together accounted for about 45% of global oil imports and about 50% of natural gas imports in 2021. In all three regions, increasing concerns about energy security led to a permanent decrease in the share of imported oil and gas in primary energy. In 2035, the total oil and natural gas imports of the mentioned regions will be more than 10% less than in 2022. The limited scope of increasing the domestic production of oil and natural gas in these countries and regions means that the decrease in the share of imported oil and gas in primary energy is compensated by the consumption of local renewable energy.
Meanwhile, what can the Islamic Republic of Iran do?
Without a doubt, Asia is the first and most consuming market for crude oil and natural gas. Among Asian countries, three countries, China, India, and Japan, need more energy than other countries. It is suggested:
- The pipeline of four branches of natural gas from Central Asia to China is operating. The design and implementation of another pipeline from the north of Iran to China is one of China's demands. In this case, China will not need to rely on the Strait of Malacca.
- Asalouye Iranshahr natural gas pipeline (IGAT-7) is one of the most successful projects in the country's energy sector. Line studies have been done from Iranshahr to the Pakistan border and from there to Karachi. Action to continue this line in Pakistan is in the direction of Iran's national interests.
- Studies of the Islamic gas pipeline have been carried out from the south of Iran to Europe through Iraq, Syria, and the Mediterranean Sea. This line can place Iran among the direct gas suppliers of Europe.
- Due to the termination of the Iran gas export contract to Turkey, it is appropriate that the necessary negotiations for the extension of this contract should start now.
- Iran has been unsuccessful in producing liquefied natural gas (LNG). Now, due to the improvement of compression technologies, such as ships that convert natural gas into compressed gas, as well as the wide demand for this energy carrier in East Asia, the price of one million BTUs of gas on the coast of Japan is eight times that of gas in the Persian Gulf, immediate action should be taken in this regard.
- The import of crude oil and natural gas from the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus and its consumption in the north of the country and their swap in the south are still accompanied by a suitable rate of return on investment.
Abbas Maleki, Professor of Energy Policy, Sharif University of Technology
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)
Utekaji wa eneo la Great Russian Plain na watu wasio wenyeji, Waslavoni wa Mashariki, unaweza kuchukuliwa kuwa mwanzo wa historia ya kiuchumi ya Urusi. Wakati huo, biashara na watu wa Ulaya ilikuwa kipaumbele cha ustaarabu wa kiuchumi wa Urusi. Utamaduni wa pili wa kiuchumi pia ulitegemea kilimo, na baada ya hapo, mahusiano ya kibiashara na Milki ya Byzantium yalianzishwa hatua kwa hatua. Romanov pia alichagua mchanganyiko wa Westernism ya Magharibi chini ya kichwa cha Peter Mkuu na anti-Westernism chini ya kichwa cha Nicholas I, Alexander III, na Nicholas II. Baada ya kuanguka kwa Sovieti, Urusi ilikabiliwa na migogoro kadhaa ya ndani ya kiuchumi, kisiasa na utambulisho; mwishowe, mageuzi ya kisiasa na kiuchumi ya Gorbachev yalionyesha migogoro hii na kufutwa kwa Umoja wa Sovieti, na kisha mpango wa matibabu ya mshtuko wa Yeltsin na kutoelewana kati ya taasisi za zamani na mpya ulisababisha hali mbaya zaidi na kuongezeka kwa oligarchy. Katika thesis yake ya PhD katika Chuo Kikuu cha St. Petersburg yenye kichwa Rasilimali Asili na Vifaa vya Mashine na Mikakati ya Maendeleo kwa Uchumi wa Urusi, Putin alisisitiza faida muhimu zaidi ya Urusi, yaani, mafuta ghafi na rasilimali za gesi asilia, na alichukua njia ya kurudi ukuu wa Urusi kutumia vyanzo hivi viwili kupata nguvu. Tangu Putin alipopanda katika nafasi ya uongozi wa Urusi, sekta ya nishati imekuwa katika kituo cha tahadhari ya serikali ya Urusi. Urusi ina mifereji 12 ya mafuta na gesi. Uwezo wa mabomba ya mafuta na gesi ni maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu ya maradufu. Takwimu zinaonyesha kuwa Urusi ilitumia tu 60% ya uwezo wa mauzo ya nje ya mabomba yake ya mafuta na gesi kabla ya kuzuka kwa ugonjwa wa COVID-19, yaani, 2020. Mchoro ufuatao unaonyesha mabomba makuu ya Urusi ya kuuza mafuta na gesi. Vita vya Ukraine vimejengwa juu ya maoni ya Putin yenye nguvu. Kushindwa kuzingatia usafirishaji wa nishati na kupata mapato ilisababisha kupungua kwa hali ya kiuchumi ya Urusi baada ya kuanguka. Kuelekeza uangalifu kwenye sekta ya nishati na kurudisha makampuni makubwa kutoka mikononi mwa oligarchs kulitia nguvu nguvu ya Putin. Ukraine ilikataa kushirikiana katika ujenzi wa mabomba ya Urusi na kukosa kulipa madeni kutokana na matumizi ya gesi ya kupita kiasi (iliyoahidiwa Ulaya) na Ukraine ilisababisha kukatika kwa mtiririko wa gesi ya asili katika mabomba manne yaliyobaki kutoka Umoja wa Kisovyeti na hatimaye, uvamizi wa peninsula ya Crimea mnamo 2014. Ushirikiano kati ya Putin na Merkel ulifanya iwezekane kwa Urusi kupunguza utegemezi wake wa kuuza nje nishati kutoka Ukraine kwa kukamilisha bomba la Nord Stream 1 wakati wa kupata rasilimali kutoka kwa usafirishaji wa gesi. Mkataba wa Putin na Merkel wa kujenga tawi la pili la bomba la Nord Stream, wakati huu unaofadhiliwa na Warusi, ulipingwa na Marekani na kuidhinishwa na makampuni ya utengenezaji. Nord Stream 2 ilikamilika wakati serikali ya Merkel ilifikia mwisho wa mstari, na serikali mpya ya Ujerumani ilikataa kutekeleza makubaliano na Urusi, ikiacha bomba la $ 11 bilioni kwa Urusi. Hii ni moja ya sababu za uamuzi wa Putin wa kushambulia Ukraine. Katika mwaka mmoja tangu shambulio la Urusi dhidi ya Ukraine, hali ya soko la nishati imekabiliwa na mabadiliko makubwa. Mauzo ya mafuta ya Brent na West Texas Intermediate yalipungua kwa $ 18 na $ 37 kwa mwaka. Baada ya uvamizi wa Urusi wa mashariki mwa Ukraine mnamo Februari 24, 2022, Brent ilifikia $ 124 kwa barili na West Texas Intermediate $ 119 kwa barili mnamo Machi 2022. """Pengo kubwa hili katika bei ya bidhaa za viwanda linaonyesha athari kubwa ya uvamizi wa Urusi dhidi ya Ukraine." Kuendelea kwa vita hivi inaendelea kufunika soko la nishati. Matokeo makuu ya vita vya Ukraine ni kama ifuatavyo: - Tukio hili limesababisha watumiaji wa wabebaji wa nishati kuchunguza teknolojia mpya na kuendeleza nishati mbadala. Mbinu mpya katika uwanja wa upatikanaji wa waendeshaji wa nishati, kama vile jinsi ya kuzalisha hidrojeni au kutumia seli ya mafuta, ni kati ya teknolojia mpya. Pia, gharama ya uzalishaji kutoka kwa mitambo ya nishati ya jua na upepo inaendelea kupungua. Ripoti ya hivi karibuni ya Taasisi ya Lazard inaonyesha kwamba uzalishaji wa kilowatt saa moja ya umeme kutoka kwa nishati safi ni sawa na uzalishaji wa kiasi sawa katika sekta ya mitambo ya nishati ya mafuta na mzunguko wa joto. "Mfano mwingine wa ""mashambulizi"" ni kuongezeka kwa matumizi ya nishati mbadala kama vile gesi ya asili na makaa ya mawe, ambayo ni muhimu kwa uchumi wa nchi." Baada ya shambulio la Urusi, nchi za Ulaya hazikuwa na chaguo ila kufufua mitambo ya umeme inayotumia makaa ya mawe. "Kwa upande mwingine, walilazimika kutangaza kuwa gesi asilia ni ""mtoaji safi wa nishati,"" wakati katika 2017, walikataza kabisa kuwekeza katika gesi asilia." Kuongezeka kwa umakini juu ya usalama wa nishati kutokana na wasiwasi juu ya upungufu wa nishati na udhaifu kwa matukio ya kijiografia na kisiasa kulifanya nchi na mikoa ulimwenguni kujaribu kupunguza utegemezi wao kwa nishati ya kuagiza na badala yake kutumia nishati zaidi ya uzalishaji wao. Utaratibu huo utaendelea. Mabadiliko katika muundo wa vyanzo vya nishati ni moja ya athari muhimu za vita kati ya Urusi na Ukraine kwenye mfumo wa nishati ya dunia. Pia, msukumo zaidi umeundwa kuboresha uzalishaji wa nishati, na kwa upande mwingine, inashutumu haja ya kugawanya kwingineko ya nishati. - Ongezeko la bei ya chakula na nishati limesababisha kupungua kwa kasi kwa ukuaji wa uchumi wa dunia. Madhara ya moja kwa moja ya mshtuko huu wa bei yatakuwa na ulimwengu kwa miaka michache ijayo. "Aidha, vita hupunguza maendeleo ya biashara ya dunia kwa sababu nchi tofauti na mikoa ya dunia kuzingatia uchumi wa ndani na kupunguza hatari ya kuambukizwa na mshtuko wa kimataifa. """ "Utaratibu huu wa kupunguza kasi ya utandawazi utaongoza kwa kupungua kidogo kwa wastani wa ukuaji wa kiuchumi katika miaka 30 ijayo.""" - Kutoa kipaumbele kwa nishati inayozalishwa ndani ya kila nchi, ambayo inasababishwa na kuongezeka kwa wasiwasi wa usalama wa nishati, hupunguza uagizaji wa mafuta na gesi asilia. "Hii itakuwa dhahiri hasa nchini China na India, ambazo kwa sasa zinaagiza kati ya 75 na 85% ya mafuta wanayotumia na kati ya 40 na 55% ya gesi ya asili.""" - Wakati ujao wa rasilimali za nishati za Urusi haujulikani. Mtazamo mbalimbali wa mtazamo wa mashirika maalumu ya nishati kutabiri kupungua kuendelea katika Urusi mafuta ya mafuta ya mafuta. Katika muda mfupi, kesi hii inaonyesha athari ya vikwazo vya hiari na vya lazima juu ya mauzo ya nje ya nishati ya Urusi. Kwa kuongezea, inadhaniwa kwamba vikwazo vinavyoathiri upatikanaji wa Urusi wa uwekezaji wa kigeni na teknolojia vitapunguzwa hatua kwa hatua. Kwa upande mwingine, kwa kuzingatia utegemezi wa Umoja wa Ulaya kwa uagizaji wa gesi ya asili kutoka Urusi kabla ya shambulio la kijeshi la Urusi dhidi ya Ukraine na utegemezi wake mkubwa kwa uagizaji wa mafuta na gesi kutoka nchi zingine, athari ya kuongezeka kwa wasiwasi wa usalama wa nishati katika Ulaya iliyoungana pia itakuwa dhahiri. Umoja wa Ulaya, China na India pamoja zilikuwa na asilimia 45 ya uagizaji wa mafuta duniani na asilimia 50 ya uagizaji wa gesi ya asili mwaka 2021. Katika mikoa yote mitatu, wasiwasi unaoongezeka juu ya usalama wa nishati ulisababisha kupungua kwa kudumu kwa sehemu ya mafuta na gesi inayohamishwa katika nishati ya msingi. Katika mwaka wa 2035, jumla ya mafuta na gesi ya asili ya mikoa iliyotajwa itakuwa chini ya asilimia 10 kuliko mwaka wa 2022. Kwa sababu ya uwezo mdogo wa kuongeza uzalishaji wa ndani wa mafuta na gesi ya asili katika nchi hizi na mikoa, kupungua kwa sehemu ya mafuta na gesi inayohamishwa katika nishati ya msingi inapaswa kulipwa kwa matumizi ya nishati ya ndani ya nishati. Wakati huo huo, Jamhuri ya Kiislamu ya Iran inaweza kufanya nini? Bila shaka, Asia ndiyo soko la kwanza na la matumizi makubwa zaidi ya mafuta yasiyosafishwa na gesi asilia. Kati ya nchi za Asia, nchi tatu, China, India, na Japani, zinahitaji nishati zaidi kuliko nchi nyingine. Inashauriwa: - Bomba la matawi manne ya gesi asilia kutoka Asia ya Kati hadi China linafanya kazi. Ujenzi wa bomba la gesi kutoka Iran hadi China ni moja ya madai ya China. Katika kesi hii, China haitahitaji kutegemea Mlango-Bahari wa Malacca. Mfereji wa gesi asilia wa Assu'l-Era-Ira (IGAT-7) ni moja ya miradi ya mafanikio zaidi katika sekta ya nishati ya nchi. Mafunzo ya mstari yamefanywa kutoka Iranshahr hadi mpaka wa Pakistan na kutoka hapo hadi Karachi. Hatua ya kuendelea na mstari huu nchini Pakistan ni katika mwelekeo wa maslahi ya kitaifa ya Iran. - Mafunzo ya bomba la gesi la Kiislamu yamefanywa kutoka kusini mwa Iran hadi Ulaya kupitia Iraq, Syria, na Bahari ya Mediterania. Mstari huu unaweza kuweka Iran kati ya wauzaji wa gesi wa moja kwa moja wa Ulaya. """Kwa sababu ya kukomeshwa kwa mkataba wa usafirishaji wa gesi ya Iran kwenda Uturuki, ni sahihi kwamba mazungumzo muhimu kwa ajili ya upanuzi wa mkataba huu kuanza sasa." Iran haijafanikiwa kutengeneza gesi ya asili iliyoharibiwa (LNG). """Kwa sababu ya maendeleo ya teknolojia ya compression, kama vile meli zinazobadilisha gesi ya asili kuwa gesi iliyofinyangwa, na mahitaji makubwa ya chombo hiki cha nishati katika Asia ya Mashariki, bei ya BTU milioni moja ya gesi katika pwani ya Japan ni mara nane ya gesi katika Ghuba ya Uajemi, hatua za haraka zinapaswa kuchukuliwa katika suala hili." - Uagizaji wa mafuta ghafi na gesi asilia kutoka nchi za Asia ya Kati na Caucasus na matumizi yake kaskazini mwa nchi na kubadilishana kwao kusini bado unaambatana na kiwango cha kutosha cha faida ya uwekezaji. Abbas Maleki, Profesa wa Sera ya Nishati, Chuo Kikuu cha Teknolojia cha Sharif, anasema maoni yaliyoonyeshwa ni ya waandishi na hayana lengo la kutafakari maoni au maoni ya IPIS.