Global move to renewables may reduce energy-related conflicts – report
The global energy transition and the shift to renewables from fossil fuels is likely to reduce energy-related conflicts, says a report published by the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation. The transition will “help redraw the geopolitical map of the 21st century,” as the supply of energy will no longer be the domain of a small number of states, says the report. Political power will get more decentralised and diffused, and most countries can expect a significantly more independent energy supply. Oil and gas will lose some of their geostrategic importance as tools of foreign policy and will also play less of a role as an aggrevating factor in regional and local armed conflicts. The influence of countries that have invested heavily in renewables – such as China – will grow, says the task force. On the other hand, fossil fuel exporting countries may face instability if they do not reinvent themselves for a new energy age. A rapid shift away from fossil fuels could create a financial shock with significant consequences for the global economy. The report looks at how resilient to risks several fossil fuel exporting countries are. “The report highlights the vital need to prepare proactively for the new energy age and its geopolitical consequences,” says Adnan Z. Amin, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Amin convened the independent task force in 2018, and its first meeting took place in Berlin during that year’s Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue (BETD). The group includes politicians and experts from all over the world, such as former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer and former WTO director-general Pascal Lamy. IRENA's Amin said he hopes the report will help decision makers in countries to anticipate and navigate the rapidly changing global energy landscape and manage the new geopolitical environment it will create. One such decision maker could be the German government. Germany, which started its two-year term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) at the beginning of 2019, has made the security implications of a world's changing climate one of its priorities for 2019/2020.
Mabadiliko ya nishati ya ulimwengu na mabadiliko ya nishati ya nishati kutoka kwa mafuta ya mafuta yanaweza kupunguza migogoro ya nishati, inasema ripoti ya Tume ya Kimataifa ya Geopolitics ya Mabadiliko ya Nishati. Mabadiliko hayo yatasaidia kuchora upya ramani ya kijiografia ya karne ya 21, kwani usambazaji wa nishati hautakuwa tena uwanja wa idadi ndogo ya mataifa, ripoti hiyo inasema. Nguvu za kisiasa zitakuwa zaidi ya kugawanyika na kuenea, na nchi nyingi zinaweza kutarajia ugavi wa nishati wa kujitegemea zaidi. Mafuta na gesi itapoteza baadhi ya umuhimu wao wa kijiografia kama zana za sera za kigeni na pia itacheza jukumu kidogo kama sababu ya kuongezeka kwa migogoro ya kijeshi ya kikanda na ya ndani. Ushawishi wa nchi ambazo zimewekeza sana katika nishati mbadala - kama vile China - utaongezeka, inasema kikundi cha kazi. Kwa upande mwingine, nchi zinazouza mafuta ya makaa ya mawe zinaweza kukabiliwa na ukosefu wa utulivu ikiwa hazijibuni upya kwa enzi mpya ya nishati. Kuondoka kwa haraka kutoka kwa mafuta ya makaa ya mawe kunaweza kusababisha mshtuko wa kifedha na matokeo makubwa kwa uchumi wa dunia. Ripoti hiyo inaangalia jinsi nchi kadhaa zinazouza mafuta ya visukuku zinavyoweza kukabiliana na hatari. "Ripoti hiyo inasisitiza umuhimu wa kuandaa kwa bidii kwa enzi mpya ya nishati na matokeo yake ya kijiografia na kisiasa,"" alisema Adnan Z. Amin, mkurugenzi mkuu wa Shirika la Kimataifa la Nishati Mbadala (IRENA). """ Amini alianzisha kundi hilo la kazi mnamo 2018 na mkutano wake wa kwanza ulifanyika Berlin wakati wa Mazungumzo ya Berlin ya Mabadiliko ya Nishati (BETD). Miongoni mwao ni waziri wa mambo ya nje wa Ujerumani, Joschka Fischer, na mkurugenzi mkuu wa shirika la biashara la dunia, Pascal Lamy. "Amin amesema ""tumaini ni kwamba ripoti hii itawasaidia watunga maamuzi katika nchi kutabiri na kusafiri katika mazingira ya nishati ya kimataifa yanayobadilika haraka na kusimamia mazingira mapya ya kijiografia ambayo yatatokea.""" Mmoja wa watendaji wa maamuzi hayo anaweza kuwa serikali ya Ujerumani. Ujerumani, ambayo ilianza muhula wake wa miaka miwili kama mwanachama asiye wa kudumu wa Baraza la Usalama la Umoja wa Mataifa (UNSC) mwanzoni mwa 2019, imefanya athari za usalama za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ya ulimwengu kuwa moja ya vipaumbele vyake kwa 2019-2020.