Aditya Vaibhav | The TrickyScribe: Climate change has contrasting effects on the world’s economies creating winners and losers; with varying incentives to act. Emerging economies, oil producers and the ones located in warmer climate zones are seriously the most vulnerable. Primary cost to the developed economies in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to incur through increased frequency and severity of natural disasters.
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For them, the deterioration in productivity will be trivial. The decline, however negligible it may be, will easily be offset by stronger tourism flows supported by fluctuations in the oil prices, according to a recent analysis by Moody’s Analytics that focused on the economic impact of climate change. The research looked at four different scenarios, entailing temperature increases of 1, 1.9, 2.4 and 4.1°C up to year 2100. Global economic damage is expected to shoot up to $54 trillion in 2100 under a 1.5°C warming scenario while 2°C increase will entail a cost of $69 trillion.
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Earth’s surface temperature in 2017 was around 0.84 Celsius degrees warmer than the 20th century average. In past couple of years, global temperatures have been consistently among the hottest. The global anomaly in surface temperature is the probable cause of an increase in sea level, a decrease in Arctic Ice and the growing frequency of weather-related catastrophes including storms, floods and droughts.
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Global energy-related CO2 emissions stood at around 36.15 billion metric tons in 2017, a significant hike from the pre-Industrial times. China was the largest producer of CO2 emissions in 2017. To reduce the production of CO2, several countries started issuing tradable green certificates which is considered one of the most effective methods to encourage corporations to clamp down emissions and to encourage sustainable production. Increase in energy generation from renewable energy sources is seen as another way to cut down on CO2 emissions.
Temperature anomalies provide the difference from an average or baseline temperature. Temperature anomalies are generally more important in the study of climate change than absolute temperature because when calculating average absolute temperatures, factors like station location and elevation may have critical impacts on absolute temperatures, but be less significant in anomaly calculations.
While positive anomalies show that the observed temperature was warmer than the baseline, a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was lower than baseline. Annual temperature departure from the 20th century ever since the 1980s has consistently been positive. Land and ocean surface temperature anomaly stood at 0.82 Celsius in 2018.
Earth: A Warming Place to Live
Past years were the warmest years on record, where warming was driven largely by increased emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Climate change is evident in the warming ocean surface temperatures as well as the extent of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere that usually attains its peak in December. Weather dynamics can affect regional temperatures and thus, the level of warming can vary around the world. Warming trends are most obvious in the Arctic region with the continued loss of sea ice.
Winners & Losers in the Direst Scenario
There are supposed to be winners and losers in the direst scenario, a 4°C temperature increase. It is estimated that India would suffer the biggest blow to its GDP in 2048 out of all of the world’s biggest economies, with a 2.45 percent contraction given its lower share of service industry employment India suffers greatly from the heat stress impact channel. China too suffers from negative heat stress but not as badly impacted as India due to benefits from tourism and agricultural activities. Canada, the UK, Germany, France and the US will see very modest increases in GDP under a worst-case scenario. It must mentioned here that the research does not factor in several climate change metrics that are also likely to affect the economy including the increasing likelihood of expensive natural disasters.
Aditya Vaibhav: Mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yana athari tofauti kwa uchumi wa ulimwengu, na kuunda washindi na washindwa, na motisha tofauti za kutenda. Nchi zinazoendelea, nchi zinazozalisha mafuta na nchi zilizo na hali ya hewa ya joto ni nchi zilizo hatarini zaidi. Gharama ya msingi kwa uchumi wa maendeleo katika Kizio cha Kaskazini ni uwezekano wa kuambukizwa kupitia kuongezeka kwa mzunguko na ukali wa majanga ya asili. "Kama ilivyoelezwa hapo juu, ""Makampuni makubwa zaidi ya kimataifa yanaongeza uzalishaji wa kaboni, na kwa ajili yao, uharibifu wa uzalishaji utakuwa mdogo.""" Kupungua kwa idadi ya watalii, ingawa ni kidogo, kutapunguzwa kwa urahisi na mtiririko mkubwa wa watalii unaoungwa mkono na mabadiliko ya bei ya mafuta, kulingana na uchambuzi wa hivi karibuni wa Moody's Analytics ambao ulizingatia athari za kiuchumi za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Utafiti huo ulichunguza matukio manne tofauti, ambayo yanahusisha ongezeko la joto la 1.9, 2.4, na 4.1,C hadi mwaka 2100. Uharibifu wa uchumi wa dunia unatarajiwa kufikia $ 54 trilioni katika 2100 chini ya hali ya joto ya 1.5 ° C, wakati ongezeko la 2 ° C litakuwa na gharama ya $ 69 trilioni. Kwa mujibu wa Statista, joto la dunia mwaka 2017 lilikuwa na kiwango cha juu cha nyuzi 0.84 zaidi ya wastani wa karne ya 20. Katika miaka michache iliyopita, joto la dunia limekuwa kati ya joto zaidi. "Ukosefu wa hali ya hewa ya juu ni sababu ya ongezeko la kiwango cha bahari, kupungua kwa barafu ya Aktiki na kuongezeka kwa mara kwa mara kwa majanga yanayohusiana na hali ya hewa, pamoja na dhoruba, mafuriko na ukame. """ "Hindu Kush Himalaya: ""Utoaji wa CO2 unaohusiana na nishati ulimwenguni ulifikia karibu tani za metrik bilioni 36.15 mnamo 2017 - ongezeko kubwa kutoka nyakati za kabla ya viwanda.""" China ilikuwa nchi kubwa zaidi ya kuzalisha CO2 mwaka 2017. Ili kupunguza uzalishaji wa CO2, nchi kadhaa zilianza kutoa vyeti vya kijani vinavyoweza kuuzwa, ambayo inachukuliwa kuwa moja ya njia bora zaidi ya kuhamasisha mashirika kupunguza uzalishaji na kuhamasisha uzalishaji endelevu. Kuongeza uzalishaji wa nishati kutoka vyanzo vya nishati mbadala inaonekana kama njia nyingine ya kupunguza uzalishaji wa CO2. Anomali za joto hutoa tofauti kutoka kwa wastani au joto la msingi. Anomali za joto ni muhimu zaidi katika utafiti wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kuliko joto la jumla, kwa sababu wakati wa kuhesabu wastani wa joto la jumla, mambo kama vile eneo la kituo na urefu wa ardhi yanaweza kuwa na athari muhimu kwa joto la jumla, lakini kuwa na umuhimu mdogo katika mahesabu ya anomali. Wakati anomalies chanya kuonyesha kwamba joto aliona ilikuwa joto kuliko msingi, anomaly hasi inaonyesha kwamba joto aliona ilikuwa chini ya msingi. Kuanzia miaka ya 1980 hadi sasa, mabadiliko ya joto ya kila mwaka kutoka karne ya 20 yamekuwa chanya. Anomali ya joto la uso wa nchi kavu na bahari ilisimama kwa 0.82 Celsius mnamo 2018. Dunia: Mahali pa Kuishi ya joto Miaka iliyopita ilikuwa miaka ya joto zaidi kwenye rekodi, ambapo joto liliongozwa kwa kiasi kikubwa na ongezeko la uzalishaji wa CO2 na gesi nyingine za chafu katika anga. Mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanaonekana katika joto la bahari na kiwango cha barafu ya bahari katika Kizio cha Kaskazini, ambayo kwa kawaida hufikia kilele chake mnamo Desemba. Hali ya hewa inaweza kuathiri joto la kikanda na hivyo, kiwango cha ongezeko la joto kinaweza kutofautiana duniani kote. Mwelekeo wa ongezeko la joto ni dhahiri zaidi katika eneo la Aktiki na kuendelea kupoteza barafu ya bahari. "Washindi na waliopotea katika hali mbaya zaidi: ""Kuna washindi na waliopotea katika hali mbaya zaidi, ongezeko la joto la 4 ° C.""" India inakadiriwa kuwa na athari kubwa zaidi kwa Pato la Taifa mnamo 2048 kati ya uchumi mkubwa ulimwenguni, na kupungua kwa asilimia 2.45 ikizingatiwa sehemu yake ya chini ya ajira ya tasnia ya huduma. China pia inaugua mkazo wa joto hasi lakini haijaathiriwa vibaya kama India kwa sababu ya faida kutoka kwa shughuli za utalii na kilimo. Canada, Uingereza, Ujerumani, Ufaransa na Marekani zitaona ongezeko dogo sana la Pato la Taifa chini ya hali mbaya zaidi. "Hii ni pamoja na utafiti wa ""mfano wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa"" ambao pia huathiri uchumi, ikiwa ni pamoja na uwezekano wa kuongezeka kwa maafa ya asili."