In July 2005, Mumbai saw 944 mm of rainfall in 6 hours; all activities were completely suspended for 4 days; more than 400 people lost their lives and the direct economic loss from the flooding amounted to more than Rs. 500 crores. And even larger impacts - social and human - remain still unaccounted for.
Kolkata too has been witnessing notably uneven rainfall patterns of late, with little rainfall during early monsoon and sudden heavy downpours towards the end of the monsoon, often flooding the city. Cyclone Aila, which hit the southern part of West Bengal and also the city of Kolkata in May 2009, resulted in several days of power cut, disruption of communication and transport, and loss of property in the city.
Bangalore, long seen by its residents and others as a naturally air-conditioned city, is facing a faster rate of increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures than the global average. The result: hotter summers, and short winters.
These apparently unrelated incidents are becoming increasingly prominent. If one connects the dots between them, it may be said that debates over the extent of climate change notwithstanding, climate-related impacts must influence decision-making right at the level of planning for cities, as they have been known to cause the decline of great cities in the past.
Concerns over climate change and related impacts can no more be kept at bay. It is time to implement the decisions of policy discussions and research in a downstream manner, from city to neighbourhoods. This needs tangible action points and sufficient tools to implement measures in a comprehensive manner.
How vulnerable are we?
The causes of climate change are global, but the severity is felt locally. A recent international analysis puts the Indian subcontinent in the ‘moderate-to-extreme climate change vulnerability’ risk range. Mumbai and Kolkata, two of India’s largest metropolises have been identified as cities with the most risks, along with Dhaka, Manila and Bangkok. The Bangalore metropolitan region is assessed to have moderate to high climate change vulnerability risk.
The six major climate change-related risk groups identified for India, in order of importance, are temperature and precipitation variability, drought, flooding and extreme rainfall, cyclone and storm surge, sea level rise, and linked health risks. What it means is that the west coast and southern India may experience a climatic regime marked by higher temperatures; coastal areas could see higher rainfall, dry years are expected to be drier and wet years wetter.
The Bangalore example
Bangalore is already starved for water, with all three talukas in Bangalore Urban district categorised as over-exploited groundwater zones. Decreasing groundwater levels triggered by drought and urban sprawl in the absence of adequate water infrastructure could spell a serious crisis for its eco-system, including the peri-urban areas. Improperly planned or badly-regulated urban development has resulted in the blocking of valleys, lakes, canals, thus substantially reducing natural water storage capacity in the city in case of sudden heavy rainfall.
Holistic, integrated planning has been identified by experts as one of the most effective interventions to address these multi-dimensional issues. However, if we consider Bangalore’s example to assess the level of preparedness, there are very few concentrated outcomes outside discussion forums, other than state level policy documents and action plans. This, despite the fact that the magnitude of impact of a climatic disaster would be much higher in Bangalore than the rest of the state, given the concentration of population, infrastructure and economy.
How can we ensure a climate-resilient Bangalore within the existing framework? One opportunity is the forthcoming Master Plan for Bangalore (which is being revised for 2031), which ideally should look at different levels of spatial planning units (such as the city level, district level or ward level). We can explore ways to build resiliency into the city’s systems given Bangalore’s physical parameters, functional linkages and importantly, its land economics and growth aspirations.
Climate and planning
There could be ambiguity over the apparent relation of a master plan to climate change. But migration, changing land use pattern, mobility needs, spatial development and built form are factors contributing to increasing vulnerability of a place and population to climate change, and must be considered within the scope of a Master Plan.
A simple example: Mitigation and adaptation measures such as choosing the right design criteria to mitigate extreme heat, making suitable land-use plans to handle sudden heavy rainfall and its after effects are all necessary links in completing the must-have-resiliency chain. Therefore, a good land-use plan with suitable development control regulations can play an important role in this.
Implementation however is a different matter. There is debate over workability of a Master Plan for Bangalore, especially in the context of implementation gaps in the prevailing ones and a general sense of dissatisfaction over how the city has turned out in form and functionality. However, in the absence of another equivalent and institutionalised tool for regulating the city, predicting its future development and making adaptive proposals, it would make sense to ensure that the upcoming master plan is devised as an improved and futuristic one that addresses emerging challenges like climate change.
Planned City: Resilient City
What makes a resilient city? Broadly, it is a proactive city with high levels of emergency preparedness, it is a planned city with environmental sustainability embedded through robust processes of integrated planning, a connected city with access to urban services network, and importantly, a well governed city with strong institutional coordination and command systems.
Each of these concepts is again interconnected through upstream or downstream relations. Building proactiveness is much easier in a planned City, where the networks and connections are known. The generic scope of a Master Plan encompasses guidance of the urban form and morphology. The aspects of integrated infrastructure planning and services, environmental sustainability and urban governance are ideally to be embedded adequately in the master planning process itself.
Any comprehensive attempt to build climate resilience through one or more of these four concepts would aim to address most probable scenarios, and should leave sufficient room for combating low probability-high risk events (such as the Uttarakhand flash floods). This will need strategies on all fronts: policy, plans, projects and regulation.
For example, representatives from an all-stakeholder institution in the city of Semarang, Indonesia, formed a team to create a ‘Climate Resilient Strategy (CRS)’ prior to revision of their mid-term development and spatial plan. The timing of preparation of the CRS prior to the mid-term development plan was crucially synchronised, which resulted in the integration of climate change resilient measures in the development and spatial plan.
In India, cities like Indore and Surat have developed their own CRS. How these are integrated within their respective land-use planning is to be seen. That India can do a good job in successfully pulling off a large-scale strategy on the ground has been proved at the time of cyclone Phailin in Orissa. Similar demonstration of strong will and collective effort are a must for building resilience through spatial planning as well.
Can we begin with climate change-sensitive land-use planning? This would mean minimising conflicts between the natural character of an area vis-à-vis the use assigned by the Master Plan. To exemplify, this could mean planning recreational open spaces with water features for low lying areas to allow for natural flow of water and extra water retention in the event of sudden heavy rainfall, rather than completely covering such areas with buildings. These areas again have to be adequately distributed to serve certain catchment zones from where water will flow.
Equally important would be location specific planning for naturally vulnerable or disaster-prone areas rather than generic planning guidelines, optimising daily travel requirement within the city by creating mixed use neighbourhoods and judicious development control regulations.
The plan must also look at provision of futuristic infrastructure including identification and availability of spaces for community gathering at the time of emergency, mitigation of localised adverse climatic impact (such as extreme heat pockets) by suitable urban design and the like.
This would be essentially followed by efficient city forms and built structures guided by green design standards. The need for other strong measures such as pricing and regulatory instruments are also extremely important for realising the benefits of in-built resiliency. Nevertheless, planners, can do their bit for sustainable city planning by integrating the attributes needed for climate resiliency in the master plan proposals for Bangalore.
Mwezi Julai mwaka 2005 Mumbai ilipata mvua ya kiasi cha milimita 944 kwa muda wa saa 6 na shughuli zote zilikuwa zimesimamishwa kwa siku 4 na zaidi ya watu 400 walipoteza maisha na hasara ya kiuchumi ya moja kwa moja kutokana na mafuriko hayo ilifikia zaidi ya Rs. 500 crore. Na hata athari kubwa zaidi - za kijamii na za kibinadamu - bado hazijulikani. Kolkata pia imekuwa ikishuhudia mifumo isiyo sawa ya mvua ya hivi karibuni, na mvua kidogo wakati wa msimu wa mapema wa mvua na mvua kubwa ya ghafla kuelekea mwisho wa msimu wa mvua, mara nyingi kufurika jiji. Kimbunga cha Aila kilichopiga sehemu ya kusini ya Bengal Magharibi na pia mji wa Kolkata mnamo Mei 2009, kilisababisha siku kadhaa za kukatika kwa umeme, usumbufu wa mawasiliano na usafiri, na hasara ya mali katika jiji. Bangalore, ambayo kwa muda mrefu imeonekana na wakazi wake na wengine kama mji wenye hali ya hewa ya asili, inakabiliwa na kiwango cha juu cha ongezeko la joto la chini na la juu kuliko wastani wa ulimwengu. Matokeo ni majira ya kiangazi yenye joto zaidi, na majira ya baridi kali mafupi. Matukio hayo yanayoonekana kuwa hayana uhusiano na jambo lingine yanazidi kuonekana. "Ikiwa mtu anaunganisha nukta kati yao, inaweza kusemwa kwamba licha ya mjadala juu ya kiwango cha mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, athari zinazohusiana na hali ya hewa lazima ziathiri maamuzi ya haki katika ngazi ya mipango ya miji, kama ilivyojulikana kuwa ""kufanya kupungua kwa miji mikubwa katika siku za nyuma.""" Wasiwasi juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa na athari zinazohusiana haziwezi tena kuhifadhiwa. Ni wakati wa kutekeleza maamuzi ya majadiliano ya sera na utafiti katika njia ya chini ya mto, kutoka mji hadi vitongoji. Hii inahitaji pointi za hatua halisi na zana za kutosha kutekeleza hatua kwa njia ya kina. Sisi ni dhaifu kadiri gani? Sababu za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ni za ulimwenguni pote, lakini uzito wake unahisiwa mahali hapo. Uchambuzi wa hivi karibuni wa kimataifa unaweka bara la India katika "uhatarishi wa wastani hadi mkali wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa". Mji wa Mumbai na Kolkata, miji miwili mikubwa zaidi nchini India, ni miongoni mwa miji yenye hatari kubwa zaidi, pamoja na Dhaka, Manila na Bangkok. Mkoa wa mji mkuu wa Bangalore umehesabiwa kuwa na hatari ya wastani hadi ya juu ya unyenyekevu wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. "Kundi kuu sita za hatari zinazohusiana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa zilizotambuliwa kwa India, kwa utaratibu wa umuhimu, ni ""kutofautiana kwa joto na mvua,"" ""kukauka, mafuriko na mvua kali,"" ""mvua ya kimbunga na dhoruba,"" ""kuongezeka kwa kiwango cha bahari,"" na ""hatari za afya zinazohusiana.""" "Hii inamaanisha kuwa pwani ya magharibi na kusini mwa India inaweza kupata hali ya hewa iliyo na joto la juu; maeneo ya pwani yanaweza kuona mvua ya juu, miaka ya ukame inatarajiwa kuwa kavu na miaka ya mvua kuwa mvua. """ "Bangladesh ina ""kiwango cha juu cha maji ya chini ya ardhi"" na maeneo yote matatu ya wilaya ya Bangalore yameorodheshwa kama maeneo ya maji ya chini ya ardhi." Kupungua kwa viwango vya maji ya chini ya ardhi, kusababishwa na ukame na kuongezeka kwa miji, kwa kukosekana kwa miundombinu ya kutosha ya maji, kunaweza kusababisha mgogoro mkubwa kwa mfumo wake wa ikolojia, pamoja na maeneo ya karibu na miji. Mipango isiyofaa au iliyopangwa vibaya ya maendeleo ya mijini imesababisha kufungwa kwa mabonde, maziwa, mifereji, na hivyo kupunguza uwezo wa kuhifadhi maji ya asili katika jiji katika kesi ya mvua kubwa ya ghafla. Mipango ya jumla, iliyounganishwa imechaguliwa na wataalamu kama moja ya hatua bora zaidi za kushughulikia masuala haya ya vipimo vingi. Hata hivyo, ikiwa tutazingatia mfano wa Bangalore kutathmini kiwango cha utayari, kuna matokeo machache sana yaliyojikita nje ya vikao vya majadiliano, mbali na nyaraka za sera za ngazi ya serikali na mipango ya hatua. Hii ni licha ya ukweli kwamba kiwango cha athari ya janga la hali ya hewa itakuwa kubwa zaidi huko Bangalore kuliko sehemu nyingine za jimbo, ikizingatiwa mkusanyiko wa idadi ya watu, miundombinu na uchumi. Tunawezaje kuhakikisha Bangalore yenye uwezo wa kukabiliana na hali ya hewa ndani ya mfumo uliopo? Mpango Mkuu wa Bangalore (unaoweza kuonekana katika picha ya chini) ni mpango wa ujenzi wa eneo la jiji, na kwa hivyo, ni muhimu kwa kila eneo la jiji, wilaya, na wilaya. "Tunaweza kuchunguza njia za kujenga nguvu katika mifumo ya jiji kutokana na vigezo vya Bangalore, viungo vya kazi na muhimu zaidi, uchumi wa ardhi na matarajio ya ukuaji. """ Hali ya hewa na mipango Kunaweza kuwa ambiguity juu ya uhusiano dhahiri wa mpango mkuu kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Uhamiaji, mabadiliko ya mtindo wa matumizi ya ardhi, mahitaji ya uhamaji, maendeleo ya kijiografia na umbo la ujenzi ni mambo yanayochangia kuongezeka kwa unyenyekevu wa eneo na idadi ya watu kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, na lazima kuzingatiwa ndani ya wigo wa Mpango Mkuu. Mfano rahisi: hatua za kupunguza na kukabiliana na hali kama vile kuchagua vigezo sahihi vya kubuni ili kupunguza joto kali, kufanya mipango ya matumizi ya ardhi inayofaa kushughulikia mvua kubwa ya ghafla na athari zake zote ni viungo muhimu katika kukamilisha mlolongo wa ujasiri. Kwa hiyo, mpango mzuri wa matumizi ya ardhi na kanuni zinazofaa za kudhibiti maendeleo zinaweza kuwa na jukumu muhimu katika hili. Hata hivyo, utekelezaji ni jambo tofauti. Kuna mjadala juu ya ufanisi wa Mpango Mkuu wa Bangalore, haswa katika muktadha wa mapungufu ya utekelezaji katika zile zilizopo na hisia ya jumla ya kutoridhika na jinsi mji umekuwa katika fomu na utendaji. Hata hivyo, kwa kukosekana kwa chombo kingine sawa na taasisi kwa ajili ya kudhibiti mji, kutabiri maendeleo yake ya baadaye na kufanya mapendekezo ya marekebisho, itakuwa na maana kuhakikisha kwamba mpango mkuu ujao ni kubuniwa kama moja bora na futuristic kwamba inashughulikia changamoto zinazoibuka kama mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Jiji lililopangwa: Jiji lenye Uwezo wa Kukabiliana na Matatizo Jiji lenye Uwezo wa Kukabiliana na Matatizo Ni nini? Kwa ujumla, ni mji wa proactive na viwango vya juu vya utayari wa dharura, ni mji uliopangwa na uendelevu wa mazingira ulioingizwa kupitia michakato thabiti ya mipango ya ushirikiano, mji uliounganishwa na upatikanaji wa mtandao wa huduma za mijini, na muhimu zaidi, mji ulioongozwa vizuri na mifumo ya nguvu ya usimamizi na amri. Kila moja ya dhana hizi ni tena interconnected kupitia upstream au downstream mahusiano. Kujenga proactiveness ni rahisi sana katika mji iliyopangwa, ambapo mitandao na uhusiano ni inayojulikana. Upeo wa jumla wa Mpango Mkuu unatia ndani mwongozo wa fomu ya mijini na morphology. Sehemu za mipango ya miundombinu ya ushirikiano na huduma, uendelevu wa mazingira na utawala wa mijini ni bora kuwa imewekwa vizuri katika mchakato wa mipango ya mkuu yenyewe. """Jitihada yoyote ya kuimarisha hali ya hewa kupitia moja au zaidi ya dhana hizi nne itakuwa na lengo la kushughulikia matukio ya uwezekano mkubwa na lazima uache nafasi ya kutosha ya kupambana na matukio ya hatari ya chini ya uwezekano (kama vile mafuriko ya Uttarakhand)." Hii itahitaji mikakati katika pande zote: sera, mipango, miradi na kanuni. Kwa mfano, wawakilishi kutoka taasisi ya wadau wote katika mji wa Semarang, Indonesia, waliunda timu ya kuunda "Mkakati wa Uvumilivu wa Hali ya Hewa" kabla ya marekebisho ya mpango wao wa maendeleo ya kati na nafasi. Wakati wa kuandaa CRS kabla ya mpango wa maendeleo ya kati ya muda ulifanywa kwa wakati mmoja, ambayo ilisababisha kuunganishwa kwa hatua za kubadilika kwa hali ya hewa katika mpango wa maendeleo na nafasi. Katika India, miji kama vile Indore na Surat imebuni CRS yao wenyewe. Jinsi hizi ni jumuishi ndani ya mipango yao ya matumizi ya ardhi ni kuonekana. India ina uwezo wa kufanikiwa katika kutekeleza mkakati wa kiwango kikubwa, kama ilivyothibitishwa wakati wa kimbunga cha Phailin huko Orissa. Maonyesho kama hayo ya mapenzi yenye nguvu na juhudi za pamoja ni lazima kwa ajili ya kujenga uimara kupitia upangaji wa nafasi pia. Je, tunaweza kuanza na mipango ya matumizi ya ardhi inayohusiana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa? Hii ingemaanisha kupunguza migogoro kati ya tabia ya asili ya eneo dhidi ya matumizi yaliyopewa na Mpango Mkuu. Kwa mfano, hii inaweza kumaanisha kupanga nafasi za burudani zilizo wazi na vipengele vya maji kwa maeneo ya chini ili kuruhusu mtiririko wa asili wa maji na uhifadhi wa maji ya ziada katika tukio la mvua kubwa ya ghafla, badala ya kufunika kabisa maeneo hayo na majengo. Maeneo haya tena lazima kugawanywa kwa kutosha kuhudumia baadhi ya maeneo ya catchment kutoka ambapo maji itatoka. Pia, ni muhimu kuwa na mipango maalum ya eneo kwa maeneo ya asili ya hatari au ya msiba badala ya miongozo ya mipango ya jumla, kuboresha mahitaji ya usafiri wa kila siku ndani ya jiji kwa kuunda vitongoji vya matumizi ya mchanganyiko na kanuni za udhibiti wa maendeleo. Mpango huo lazima pia utafute utoaji wa miundombinu ya baadaye ikiwa ni pamoja na utambulisho na upatikanaji wa nafasi za kukusanyika kwa jamii wakati wa dharura, kupunguza athari mbaya za hali ya hewa (kama vile mifuko ya joto kali) kwa muundo sahihi wa mijini na kadhalika. Hii ingekuwa kimsingi ikifuatiwa na fomu za jiji zenye ufanisi na miundo iliyojengwa inayoongozwa na viwango vya muundo wa kijani. """Hitaji ya hatua nyingine kali kama vile bei na vyombo vya udhibiti pia ni muhimu sana kwa kutambua faida za ujasiri wa ndani." Hata hivyo, wapangaji wanaweza kufanya kazi yao kwa ajili ya mipango ya jiji endelevu kwa kuunganisha sifa zinazohitajika kwa ajili ya hali ya hewa katika mapendekezo ya mpango mkuu wa Bangalore.