If you have ever jumped to the wrong conclusion, made a terrible mistake thanks to your inbuilt biases or been subtly nudged back to your senses, then you are (a) human and (b) already on personal terms with the work of Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein. Thanks to their academic and popular writing, the world is now very familiar with what are collectively called “cognitive biases” – systematic errors in human thinking – and ways to correct them.
Sunstein co-wrote the highly influential book Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness with Richard Thaler, while Kahneman popularised the work that won him the Nobel prize in economics in 2002 with his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Sibony is the author of You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake: How biases distort decision-making and what you can do to fight them.
You may think that, in no small part thanks to their efforts, the swamp of human fallibility has been well and truly drained by now. But that would be yet another mistake. Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein say there is an even more important source of warped decision-making. The three have banded together in a behavioural science supergroup to draw attention to what they call “noise” – persistent inconsistencies in professional judgements that lead to bad outcomes in all walks of life.
Kahneman and Sibony spoke to New Scientist about the group’s new book Noise: A flaw in human judgment (Little, Brown Spark in the UK; William Collins in the US). Sunstein was due to join the conversation, but was called away at the last minute by his…
Kama umewahi kuruka kwa hitimisho baya, alifanya kosa kubwa shukrani kwa upendeleo wako wa ndani au ulipigwa kwa busara kurudi kwa hisia zako, basi wewe ni (a) binadamu na (b) tayari katika masharti ya kibinafsi na kazi ya Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibelius na Cass Sunstein. "Kwa sababu ya maandishi yao ya kitaaluma na maarufu, ulimwengu sasa unajua sana kile kinachoitwa kwa pamoja ""upendeleo wa utambuzi"" - makosa ya utaratibu katika kufikiri kwa binadamu - na njia za kuyarekebisha." "Kama mwandishi wa kitabu cha ""Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness"" na Richard Thaler, Kahneman alishirikiana na Richard Thaler katika kuunda kitabu cha ""Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness"" ambacho kilimpatia tuzo ya Nobel ya Uchumi mwaka 2002." Sibony ni mwandishi wa Wewe ni Karibu Kufanya Kosa Kubwa: Jinsi Upendeleo Unavyopotoza Utekelezaji wa Maamuzi na Nini Unaweza Kufanya Ili Kupigana Nao. Unaweza kufikiri kwamba, kwa sehemu kubwa, shukrani kwa juhudi zao, mabwawa ya kutokosea kwa wanadamu yametoweka kabisa sasa. Lakini hilo lingekuwa kosa jingine. Kahneman, Sibony na Sunstein wanasema kuna chanzo muhimu zaidi cha maamuzi yaliyopotoka. "Wanafunzi hao watatu wameungana katika kikundi cha sayansi ya tabia ili kuvutia kile wanachokiita ""ngurumo"" - kutoelewana kwa muda mrefu katika maamuzi ya kitaaluma ambayo husababisha matokeo mabaya katika nyanja zote za maisha." "Kahneman na Siboni walizungumza na New Scientist kuhusu kitabu kipya cha kikundi hicho ""Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment"" (Little, Brown Spark, Uingereza; William Collins, Marekani)." Sunstein alikuwa na sababu ya kujiunga na mazungumzo, lakini aliitwa mbali katika dakika ya mwisho na yake...