Mideast analysts are concerned about Ethiopia’s diverting a stretch of the Blue Nile to construct a dam.
Experts on Middle Eastern hydro politics have described Ethiopia’s diverting a stretch of the Blue Nile to make way for a hydroelectric dam as “a unilateral move” that risked a regional war.
Speaking to the Anadolu Agency (AA), Hani Rislan, director of al-Ahram Political and Strategic Research Center Africa Unit said “Renaissance Dam is part of a giant project composed of 4 dams which will gather 200 billion cubic meters of water.”
Rislan said the project threatened Egypt with drought, a $4 million revenue loss in agriculture, unemployment of 2 million families and with compromising the potential of Egypt’s main hydroplant, the Aswan Dam.
Rislan said that Ethiopia’s “surprising decision” meant that the dam construction was pre-planned and it jeopardized possibility of cooperation between the three riparian states, the third being Sudan.
“Khartoum may submerge”
Professor Ala al-Zewahiri from Hydraulics Engineering Department of Cairo University said Egypt and Sudan do not face any immediate risks in the short-run but until after the construction of the dam was completed.
“In terms of geopolitics, the dam is constructed on an unfavorable location between two mountains, which would lead faults, causing Sudan’s capital Khartoum to submerge” said, al-Zewahiri.
Ethiopian move risks regional war
Salman Mohammed Ahmed Salman, a former advisor to UN International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and an expert on African water resources claimed that the diversion project could lead to a regional war.
Expressing his concern over the possibility that Egyptian radical militants and political figures’ might use the dam project as a pretext to attack Ethiopia and other riparian countries.
Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile, wants to take more water from the river, claiming it will meet its electricity and food supply. However, a 1929 agreement between Egypt and Britain as guarantor state gives Egypt most of the Nile’s waters.
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999 was designed in order to solve the problems between upstream and downstream countries. As it failed, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya, as riparian states, signed Entebbe Agreement in 2010 envisaging that all riparian states have the right to access to the Nile.
While South Sudan is also expected to be part of the agreement shortly, Egypt and Sudan, acting together, are opposed to the agreement on the grounds that it harmed their vital water resources.
Wachambuzi wa Mashariki ya Kati wana wasiwasi juu ya Ethiopia kugeuza sehemu ya Mto Blue Nile kujenga bwawa. Wataalamu wa siasa za maji ya Mashariki ya Kati wameelezea Ethiopia kugeuza sehemu ya Mto Blue Nile ili kufungua njia kwa bwawa la umeme wa maji kama "hatua ya upande mmoja" ambayo ilihatarisha vita vya kikanda. "Hani Rislan, mkurugenzi wa kitengo cha Afrika cha Kituo cha Utafiti wa Kisiasa na Mkakati cha Al-Ahram, alisema: ""Hifadhi ya Renaissance ni sehemu ya mradi mkubwa unaojumuisha mabwawa manne ambayo yatakusanya mita za mraba bilioni 200 za maji,"" alisema mradi huo unahatarisha Misri na ukame, hasara ya mapato ya $ 4 milioni katika kilimo, ukosefu wa ajira wa familia milioni 2 na kuhatarisha uwezo wa kiwanda kikuu cha Aswan." Rais huyo alisema uamuzi wa Ethiopia wa kushangaza una maana ya kwamba ujenzi wa bwawa hilo ulikuwa umepangwa mapema na unahatarisha uwezekano wa ushirikiano kati ya mataifa matatu ya pwani, ya tatu ikiwa ni Sudan. "Khartoum inaweza kuzama,"" Profesa Ala al-Zewahiri kutoka Idara ya Uhandisi wa Hydraulics ya Chuo Kikuu cha Cairo alisema Misri na Sudan hazikabili hatari yoyote ya haraka kwa muda mfupi lakini hadi baada ya ujenzi wa bwawa kukamilika." "Kwa suala la kijiografia, bwawa hilo limejengwa katika eneo lisilofaa kati ya milima miwili, ambalo litasababisha mapungufu, na kusababisha mji mkuu wa Sudan Khartoum kuzama", alisema al-Zewahiri. "Msemaji wa Ethiopia, Salman Mohammed Ahmed Salman, mshauri wa zamani wa shirika la Umoja wa Mataifa la misaada ya kilimo (IFAD) na mtaalamu wa rasilimali za maji barani Afrika, amesema mradi huo wa kuondoa maji katika maji ya nchi hiyo unaweza kusababisha vita vya kikanda.""" Akionyesha wasiwasi wake juu ya uwezekano wa wanamgambo wa Kiislamu wa Misri na watu wa kisiasa kutumia mradi wa bwawa kama kisingizio cha kushambulia Ethiopia na nchi nyingine za pwani. Ethiopia, chanzo cha Mto Blue Nile, inataka kuchukua maji zaidi kutoka mto huo, ikidai kwamba itakidhi mahitaji yake ya umeme na chakula. Mkataba wa 1929 kati ya Misri na Uingereza, ambao ulitoa ahadi ya kuhifadhi maji ya Mto Nile, ulifanya Misri kuwa na mamlaka ya kuhifadhi maji ya Mto Nile. Mpango wa Bonde la Nile (NBI) ulianzishwa mwaka 1999 ili kutatua matatizo kati ya nchi za juu na za chini ya mto. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda na Kenya, kama nchi za kando ya Mto Nile, zilitia saini Mkataba wa Entebbe mwaka 2010 unaoonyesha kuwa nchi zote za kando ya Mto Nile zina haki ya kuingia kwenye Mto Nile. Ingawa Sudan Kusini inatarajiwa pia kuwa sehemu ya makubaliano hayo hivi karibuni, Misri na Sudan, kwa kushirikiana, zinapinga makubaliano hayo kwa sababu yanaharibu rasilimali zao muhimu za maji.