The recent serious developments in the Ukraine expose growing tensions between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians in the country, evident since the Orange Revolution. Recent IZA research shows that these tensions reflect deeper divides in political preferences but also economic disparities between the two ethnic groups.
Two recently published studies co-authored by Amelie F. Constant (IZA and George Washington University), Martin Kahanec (IZA and Central European University) and Klaus F. Zimmermann (IZA and Bonn University) shed light on the sources of the deep economic and political divide between the two largest ethnic groups in Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian.
The first study published in Eastern European Economics shows that voting preferences for the pro-European, pro-Orange, political parties were strongly driven by preferences for western-type market economy and democracy. Independently of preferences for market economy and democracy, however, voting preferences of ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians were markedly different.
As the Russian-Ukrainian differences in voting preferences could not be explained by differences in age, education, region or other socio-demographic characteristics, they rather reflected a deeper ethnic divide in the Ukrainian society.
Specifically, Ukrainian speakers reporting Ukrainian ethnicity (natsionalnost) were shown to be 44 percent less likely to vote pro-European parties, and almost 40 percent (17 percentage points) of this gap was due to ethnicity, the rest being explained by other socio-demographic factors. Interestingly, even those ethnic Ukrainians whose primary language was Russian differed from Russian speakers of Russian ethnicity by 10.5 percent in favor of pro-European parties, of which 34 percent (3.6 percentage points) was due to Ukrainian ethnicity. The gaps were even larger between ethnic Ukrainians who spoke Ukrainian and those who spoke Russian.
The second study published in Economics of Transition sheds light on some economic factors that may explain ethnic tensions in Ukraine. According to this study, whereas Ukraine emerged from the Soviet Union with no ethnic differentials beyond discrepancies that could be explained by regional or socio-demographic differences, an earnings gap between Russian and Ukrainian speakers emerged during Ukraine’s transition.
According to the study, Russian-speaking men earned on average about 28 percent more and Russian-speaking women about 14 percent more than their Ukrainian colleagues. Whereas a larger part of these gaps can be explained by factors such as age, education, or regional differences, 25 percent (6.8 percentage points) of the gap between male workers and 34 percent (4.8 percentage points) of the gap between female workers is due to the ethnic divide between Russian and Ukrainian speakers.
"Mambo makubwa yaliyotokea hivi karibuni nchini Ukraine yanaonyesha kuongezeka kwa mvutano kati ya watu wa asili ya Urusi na Waukrainia nchini humo, ambayo imekuwa wazi tangu mapinduzi ya rangi ya machungwa.""" Utafiti wa hivi karibuni wa IZA unaonyesha kwamba mvutano huu unaonyesha mgawanyiko mkubwa katika upendeleo wa kisiasa lakini pia utofauti wa kiuchumi kati ya makundi mawili ya kikabila. Mafunzo mawili ya hivi karibuni yaliyochapishwa na Amelie F. Constant (IZA na Chuo Kikuu cha George Washington), Martin Kahnitz (IZA na Chuo Kikuu cha Ulaya ya Kati) na Klaus F. Zimmermann (IZA na Chuo Kikuu cha Bonn) yanaangazia vyanzo vya mgawanyiko mkubwa wa kiuchumi na kisiasa kati ya makundi mawili makubwa ya kikabila nchini Ukraine, Urusi na Ukraine. Uchunguzi wa kwanza uliochapishwa katika Uchumi wa Ulaya Mashariki unaonyesha kuwa upendeleo wa kupiga kura kwa pro-Ulaya, pro-Orange, vyama vya kisiasa viliongozwa sana na upendeleo kwa uchumi wa soko wa aina ya magharibi na demokrasia. Hata hivyo, bila kujali upendeleo wa uchumi wa soko na demokrasia, upendeleo wa kupiga kura wa watu wa kabila la Ukrainia na Warusi ulikuwa tofauti sana. "Kwa kuwa tofauti za Urusi na Ukraine katika upendeleo wa kupiga kura hazingeweza kuelezwa na tofauti za umri, elimu, mkoa au sifa nyingine za kijamii, badala yake zilionyesha mgawanyiko wa kina wa kikabila katika jamii ya Ukraine. """ Kwa mfano, watu wanaozungumza Kiukreni wanaoripoti ukoo wa Kiukreni (nationalnost) walionyesha kuwa 44% chini ya uwezekano wa kupiga kura kwa vyama vya Ulaya, na karibu 40% (pamoja na asilimia 17) ya pengo hili lilitokana na ukoo, na wengine walielezwa na sababu nyingine za kijamii na za idadi ya watu. Kwa kushangaza, hata wale wa ukraini wa kikabila ambao lugha yao ya msingi ilikuwa Kirusi walitofautiana na wasemaji wa Kirusi wa kikabila cha Kirusi kwa asilimia 10.5 kwa niaba ya vyama vya Ulaya, ambayo asilimia 34 (pamoja na asilimia 3.6 ya pointi) ilitokana na ukraini. Pengo lilikuwa kubwa hata zaidi kati ya Waukrainia wa kikabila waliozungumza Kiukrainia na wale waliozungumza Kirusi. Utafiti wa pili uliochapishwa katika Uchumi wa Mabadiliko unatoa mwangaza juu ya sababu zingine za kiuchumi ambazo zinaweza kuelezea mvutano wa kikabila nchini Ukraine. Kulingana na utafiti huu, wakati Ukraine ilitoka kwa Umoja wa Sovieti bila tofauti za kikabila zaidi ya tofauti ambazo zinaweza kuelezwa na tofauti za kikanda au za kijamii na za idadi ya watu, pengo la mapato kati ya wasemaji wa Kirusi na Kiukreni lilitokea wakati wa mabadiliko ya Ukraine. Kulingana na utafiti huo, wanaume wanaozungumza Kirusi walipata wastani wa asilimia 28 zaidi na wanawake wanaozungumza Kirusi walipata wastani wa asilimia 14 zaidi ya wenzao wa Kiukreni. Ingawa sehemu kubwa ya tofauti hizi zinaweza kuelezwa na sababu kama vile umri, elimu, au tofauti za kikanda, asilimia 25 (pungufu ya asilimia 6.8) ya tofauti kati ya wafanyakazi wa kiume na asilimia 34 (pungufu ya asilimia 4.8) kati ya wafanyakazi wa kike ni kwa sababu ya mgawanyiko wa kikabila kati ya wasemaji wa Kirusi na Kiukreni.