Why Cycle Lanes Aren’t Responsible for Urban Congestion
10:33 AM PST on December 29, 2021
Editor's note: A version of this article originally appeared on the Conversation and is republished with permission.
The average driver in London spent 148 hours in traffic jams in 2021 – twice the national average, according to a new report by Inrix, a firm that analyses road traffic. These findings prompted a BBC story that attributed London’s new supposed status as the world’s most congested city to an increase in cycle lanes, implemented throughout the capital to maintain socially distanced travel during the pandemic.
This analysis would seem to overlook the fact that congestion during 2021 was about the same as it was in 2019, before the pandemic or the new lanes.
To make sense of what is happening, we need to remember that the amount of time available to each of us constrains the amount we can travel. There are many things we need to fit into 24 hours, and on average, people spend just an hour on the move. This limits the build-up of congestion in cities.
Road traffic congestion happens when there is a high density of people and high car ownership and not enough road space for all the car trips that might be made. If traffic volumes grow for any reason, delays increase and some people who might otherwise drive make other choices instead. They might travel at a different time or take another route, use an alternative mode like the bus, change their destination and go to a different shopping centre, for example, or decide not to travel at all, by shopping online for instance.
If road space is taken away from cars to create cycle or bus lanes, then congestion will initially increase. But the additional delays will prompt some drivers to make other arrangements, and congestion will revert to what it had been.
The overall effect is to reduce the share of trips by car. This is what has been happening in London for many years as the population has grown and as there has been large investment in public transport. Private transport use fell from 48 percent in 2000 to 37 percent in 2019, while public transport use grew from 27 percent to 36 percent over the same period. Cycling increased from 1.2 percent to 2.4 percent while walking held steady at 25 percent.
The London mayor’s transport strategy aims to cut private transport use to 20 percent of all trips by 2041. This would probably diminish the total amount of traffic congestion, although not necessarily its intensity at peak times in the busiest areas.
The limits of cycle lanes
It's important to note that creating cycles lanes reduces the space available for cars but does not necessarily get people out of cars. Copenhagen is a city famous for cycling, with 28 percent of journeys made by bike. Yet car traffic is only slightly less than in London. Aside from cycling, the other big difference is that public transport accounts for only half the proportion of trips compared with London.
The experience of Copenhagen shows that people can be persuaded off of buses and onto bikes, which are cheaper, healthier, better for the environment and no slower in congested traffic. Yet buses are an efficient way of using road space to move people in urban areas that cities should still support. Replacing their diesel engines with electric or hydrogen propulsion could cut carbon emissions, too. Getting drivers out of cars and onto bicycles has proved more difficult, even in Copenhagen, a small, flat city with excellent cycling infrastructure and a strong cycling culture.
Across a range of European cities, there are diverse patterns of journeys by different travel modes, reflecting the history, geography, size and population density of each place. But there are no major European cities with high levels of both cycling and public transport. The prospects for a substantial increase in cycling in London are far from certain given the relatively high level of past public transport use. Still, the very act of creating cycle lanes reduces road space for cars, regardless of the extent to which these lanes are used.
COVID has had a major impact on public transport use in London, with bus and tube journeys still at 70-75% of pre-pandemic levels. The financial shortfall may mean Transport for London has to reduce services, unless the government offers more support.
Further investment in new rail routes, both tube and overground, would not be possible in these circumstances. Investment in cycling infrastructure would then make the most sense for reducing car use in London, both by encouraging cycling as an alternative and by lessening the scope for people to drive.
David Metz is an honorary professor of transport studies at UCL.
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Kwa nini Barabara za Baiskeli hazina jukumu la msongamano wa barabara mjini (UTC+10:33 GMT) Desemba 29, 2021 Kumbuka Mhariri: Toleo la makala hii lilionekana awali kwenye Mazungumzo na linachapishwa tena kwa ruhusa. Kwa wastani, dereva mmoja wa London alitumia masaa 148 katika msongamano wa magari mnamo 2021, mara mbili ya wastani wa kitaifa, kulingana na ripoti mpya ya Inrix, kampuni inayochunguza trafiki barabarani. "Ugunduzi huo ulisababisha hadithi ya BBC ambayo ilihusianisha hali mpya ya London kama mji wenye msongamano mkubwa zaidi ulimwenguni na ongezeko la njia za baiskeli, zilizotumika katika mji mkuu kudumisha usafiri wa ""kusafiri kwa umbali wa kijamii"" wakati wa janga hilo." "Uchambuzi huu unaonekana kupuuza ukweli kwamba msongamano wa magari wakati wa 2021 ulikuwa sawa na vile ulivyokuwa mnamo 2019, kabla ya janga au mistari mipya. """ Ili kuelewa nini kinachotokea, tunahitaji kukumbuka kwamba kiasi cha wakati tunao kila mmoja wetu kinapunguza kiasi tunachoweza kusafiri. Kuna mambo mengi tunahitaji kukidhi katika masaa 24, na kwa wastani, watu hutumia saa moja tu kusafiri. Hilo hupunguza msongamano wa magari katika majiji. Mzunguko wa magari hutokea wakati kuna msongamano mkubwa wa watu na umiliki wa magari na hakuna nafasi ya kutosha ya barabara kwa safari zote za gari ambazo zinaweza kufanywa. Ikiwa kiasi cha trafiki kinakua kwa sababu yoyote, ucheleweshaji huongezeka na watu wengine ambao wangekuwa wakiongoza hufanya chaguzi zingine badala yake. Wanaweza kusafiri kwa wakati tofauti au kuchukua njia nyingine, kutumia njia mbadala kama basi, kubadilisha marudio yao na kwenda kituo tofauti cha ununuzi, kwa mfano, au kuamua kutosafiri kabisa, kwa ununuzi mtandaoni, kwa mfano. Ikiwa nafasi ya barabara inachukuliwa kutoka kwa magari ili kuunda barabara za baiskeli au za basi, basi msongamano utaongezeka mwanzoni. Lakini ucheleweshaji huo wa ziada utawafanya madereva fulani wafanye mipango mingine, na msongamano utarudi kama ilivyokuwa. Matokeo ya jumla ni kupunguza sehemu ya safari kwa gari. Hii ni nini imekuwa kutokea katika London kwa miaka mingi kama idadi ya watu imeongezeka na kama kumekuwa na uwekezaji mkubwa katika usafiri wa umma. Matumizi ya usafiri wa kibinafsi yalipungua kutoka asilimia 48 mwaka 2000 hadi asilimia 37 mwaka 2019, wakati matumizi ya usafiri wa umma yaliongezeka kutoka asilimia 27 hadi asilimia 36 katika kipindi hicho. Kuendesha baiskeli kwa wastani wa asilimia 1.2 iliongezeka hadi asilimia 2.4 wakati kutembea kwa wastani wa asilimia 25. Mkurugenzi wa London amepanga kupunguza matumizi ya usafiri wa kibinafsi hadi asilimia 20 ya safari zote za mwaka 2041. Hii pengine kupunguza kiasi cha jumla ya msongamano wa trafiki, ingawa si lazima nguvu yake katika nyakati za kilele katika maeneo ya shughuli nyingi. Kwa upande mwingine, kuna uwezekano mkubwa kwamba kuunda barabara za baiskeli kunapunguza nafasi ya magari, lakini sio lazima watu watoke nje ya magari. Copenhagen ni mji maarufu kwa baiskeli, na asilimia 28 ya safari zinazofanywa kwa baiskeli. Hata hivyo, idadi ya magari ni ndogo kidogo tu ikilinganishwa na London. Mbali na baiskeli, tofauti nyingine kubwa ni kwamba usafiri wa umma unawakilisha nusu tu ya uwiano wa safari ikilinganishwa na London. Uzoefu wa Copenhagen unaonyesha kuwa watu wanaweza kushawishiwa kuacha mabasi na kuendesha baiskeli, ambayo ni ya bei nafuu, yenye afya, bora kwa mazingira na sio polepole katika trafiki iliyojaa. Hata hivyo, mabasi ni njia bora ya kutumia nafasi ya barabara kusafirisha watu katika maeneo ya mijini ambayo miji bado inapaswa kuunga mkono. Kubadilisha injini zao za dizeli kwa umeme au injini za hidrojeni kunaweza kupunguza uzalishaji wa kaboni, pia. Kuondoa magari kwenye baiskeli imekuwa vigumu hata katika Copenhagen, mji mdogo, tambarare na miundombinu bora ya baiskeli na utamaduni mkubwa wa baiskeli. Katika miji mbalimbali ya Ulaya, kuna mifumo mbalimbali ya safari na njia tofauti za kusafiri, kuonyesha historia, jiografia, ukubwa na wiani wa idadi ya watu wa kila mahali. Lakini hakuna miji mikubwa ya Ulaya na viwango vya juu vya wote baiskeli na usafiri wa umma. Matarajio ya ongezeko kubwa la baiskeli huko London ni mbali na uhakika kutokana na kiwango cha juu cha matumizi ya usafiri wa umma wa zamani. Hata hivyo, hatua ya kuunda barabara za baiskeli hupunguza nafasi ya magari barabarani, bila kujali kiwango cha matumizi ya barabara hizo. COVID-19 imesababisha athari kubwa kwa matumizi ya usafiri wa umma huko London, na safari za basi na tube bado ziko kwa 70-75% ya viwango vya kabla ya janga. Upungufu wa fedha unaweza kumaanisha Usafiri wa London lazima upunguze huduma, isipokuwa serikali inatoa msaada zaidi. Uwekezaji zaidi katika njia mpya za reli, zote mbili za bomba na za juu ya ardhi, hazingewezekana katika hali hizi. Uwekezaji katika miundombinu ya baiskeli ingekuwa na maana zaidi kwa kupunguza matumizi ya magari huko London, kwa kuhimiza baiskeli kama mbadala na kwa kupunguza nafasi kwa watu kuendesha gari. David Metz ni profesa wa heshima wa masomo ya usafiri katika UCL. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika makala ya kwanza ya jarida la ""San Francisco CalBike,"" ""Kusema Bunge Hands Off Active Usafiri Fedha Oakland Rips Out Protected Bike Lane juu ya Embarcadero"" Mji na Mjumbe wa Baraza ambao inawakilisha Wilaya ya 2 kulalamika juu ya ukosefu wa rasilimali kwa ajili ya miradi ya usalama, lakini kwa namna fulani wana rasilimali ya kuondoa kuhifadhiwa baiskeli barabara."