An important aspect of the negotiations at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) was the financing of climate-adaptation projects in less-developed countries. Climate change poses a more severe threat to stability in developing countries, where government resources are scarce and local economies are reliant on agriculture. Droughts linked to climate change have already contributed to the escalation of violent conflicts in Sudan and Syria. These events have had serious negative consequences for western countries, including a massive migration of refugees to Europe and an escalation of terrorist attacks.
The agreement reached in Paris this summer was an important step in the right direction, guaranteeing developing countries $100 billion per year in adaptation funding by 2020. But will it be enough to stave off the instability and conflict that is sure to accompany global warming?
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and by extension the instability that comes with it, because of their dependence on agriculture. In Africa nearly 60% of the labor force is employed by agribusiness. The World Bank estimates that by 2080 droughts linked to climate change will reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa 15%, forcing millions of people into poverty. The governments of African countries will be put to the test as they attempt to respond to climate-driven food scarcity and unemployment.
Although climate shocks do not necessarily lead directly to conflict, they act as a threat multiplier, increasing the likelihood that political and ethnic tensions will result in violence. For example, in Sudan an extreme drought fueled the start of the conflict in Darfur. Prior to its beginning in 2003, rainfall was down by approximately 30% for multiple decades in a row, leading to high rates of poverty and malnutrition among farmers and herders in the region. The Sudanese government put in place policies granting additional water rights to people from Arab regions, generating an escalation of ethnic tensions. The region has since descended into civil war, with the Janjaweed – an Arab militia – and the Sudanese government carrying out ethnic cleansing against Darfur’s African population.
Similarly, a report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found a strong connection between the Syrian conflict and climate change. A severe drought lasting from 2006 to 2009 – exacerbated by the “misguided agricultural and water-use policies of the Syrian government” – caused mass crop failure, impoverishing farming communities. As a result, approximately 1.5 million people migrated from rural to urban areas. This influx of people strained government programs and increased the rate of unemployment, resulting in social unrest and eventually an uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011. These events have created a power vacuum for terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra to gain legitimacy amongst portions of the Syrian population by providing them with social services (e.g. education, health care).
Western countries have not gone unscathed. European countries have welcomed unprecedented amounts of refugees, angering their native populations and putting an additional burden on their economies, which have yet to fully recover from the Great Recession. Large-scale terrorist attacks have been carried out in France, and Cologne experienced a mass sexual assault at the hands of largely North African and Arab immigrants. It would be inaccurate to depict climate change as the principal cause of these events, but it is certainly not unconnected.
In order to avoid instability, developing countries will have to implement adaptation programs to prepare for climate change. Currently only 6% of African farmland is irrigated, leaving farmers defenseless against shifts in patterns of precipitation. With more severe and frequent droughts, farmers will need to construct sophisticated irrigation systems and switch to drought-resistant crops. These adaptation measures must be encouraged by government policy, which could provide low-income farmers with subsidies and consultation services.
However, governments in developing countries often do not possess the financial resources to implement these programs, and are in need of assistance. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) was created at COP16 with the mission of providing less-developed countries (LDCs) with the financial resources to respond to climate change. Then at COP21, developed countries agreed to increase adaptation financing from $10 billion to $100 billion by 2020—a monumental achievement. Following the signing of the final agreement, the South African Minister of the Department of Environmental Affairs, Ms. Bomo Edna Molewa, proclaimed that the delegates had reached an “ambitious, fair and effective legally binding outcome of which we as all South Africans can be proud.” Nevertheless, past funding pledges have failed largely because western countries have been insulated from the effects of climate change; with the continuation of the European refugee crisis, western leaders may begin to develop a greater appreciation for adaptation funding.
Developed countries will have to increase their climate aid substantially in the future in order to meet the growing demand for adaptation projects in the developing world. At COP21, negotiators agreed to establish a new funding goal before 2025 (using $100 billion as the baseline). The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that by 2050 LDCs will require between $210 billion and $300 billion in assistance per year, more than double the current pledged funding from developed countries.
International organizations have also increased their climate aid in an attempt to reach the UNEP’s looming funding-target. In November 2015, the World Bank announced the African Climate Business Plan. The Bank plans to “build up the continent’s resilience to climate shocks” by devoting $16 billion to adaptation projects. These projects will include climate-resilient infrastructure (e.g. irrigation, dikes, paved roads), energy infrastructure and climate data gathering.
It is important that world leaders follow through with the financial promises they made at COP21, keeping in mind the security implications of their actions. Global warming is not an isolated issue and should not be treated like one. A failure to fund adaptation programs in LDCs could have serious ramifications in the realm of high politics and national security. The future stability of the international system is largely dependent on the willingness of developed countries to expand adaptation funding in the next couple decades. Defense hawks who often pride themselves as “climate-skeptics”, should take another look at the facts. Climate change has had a devastating effect on fragile states, initiating a set of destabilizing chain-reactions that are almost impossible to stop once begun. This “Pandora’s Box” effect – if unaccounted for by adaptation funding – will have serious geopolitical consequences.
The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of the Glimpse from the Globe staff, editors or governors.
Mkutano wa 21 wa Mkutano wa Vyama (COP21) ulihusu suala la fedha kwa ajili ya miradi ya kukabiliana na hali ya hewa katika nchi zisizo na maendeleo. Mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanaathiri sana utulivu katika nchi zinazoendelea, ambapo rasilimali za serikali ni chache na uchumi wa eneo hilo unategemea kilimo. Ukame unaohusiana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa tayari umesababisha kuongezeka kwa migogoro ya vurugu nchini Sudan na Syria. Matukio hayo yamekuwa na matokeo mabaya sana kwa nchi za Magharibi, ikiwa ni pamoja na uhamiaji mkubwa wa wakimbizi kwenda Ulaya na kuongezeka kwa mashambulizi ya kigaidi. Mkataba uliofikiwa Paris mwaka huu wa majira ya joto ulikuwa hatua muhimu katika mwelekeo sahihi, ukiwahakikishia nchi zinazoendelea dola bilioni 100 kwa mwaka katika ufadhili wa marekebisho ya hali ya hewa ifikapo 2020. Lakini je, itaweza kuzuia ukosefu wa utulivu na migogoro ambayo bila shaka itaambatana na ongezeko la joto duniani? Nchi zinazoendelea ni hasa dhaifu kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, na kwa upanuzi kutokuwa na utulivu ambao unakuja na hilo, kwa sababu ya utegemezi wao kwa kilimo. Katika Afrika, karibu asilimia 60 ya wafanyakazi wanaofanya kazi katika sekta ya kilimo. Benki ya Dunia imekadiria kuwa ifikapo mwaka 2080 ukame unaohusiana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa utapunguza mavuno ya mazao katika Afrika Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara kwa asilimia 15, na kulazimisha mamilioni ya watu kuwa maskini. Serikali za nchi za Afrika zitakabiliwa na jaribio wakati zinapojaribu kukabiliana na upungufu wa chakula na ukosefu wa ajira unaosababishwa na hali ya hewa. Ingawa mshtuko wa hali ya hewa hausababishi vita moja kwa moja, hufanya kazi kama multiplier ya tishio, ikiongeza uwezekano kwamba mvutano wa kisiasa na kikabila utaongoza kwa vurugu. Kwa mfano, katika Sudan ukame mkali ulisababisha kuanza kwa mzozo katika Darfur. Kabla ya kuanza kwa mvua mwaka 2003, mvua ilikuwa imepungua kwa asilimia 30 kwa miongo kadhaa mfululizo, na kusababisha viwango vya juu vya umaskini na utapiamlo miongoni mwa wakulima na wachungaji katika eneo hilo. Serikali ya Sudan imeweka sera za kutoa haki za maji za ziada kwa watu kutoka mikoa ya Kiarabu, ikisababisha kuongezeka kwa mvutano wa kikabila. Tangu wakati huo eneo hilo limeshuka katika vita vya wenyewe kwa wenyewe, na Janjaweed <unk> jeshi la Kiarabu <unk> na serikali ya Sudan kufanya usafishaji wa kikabila dhidi ya idadi ya watu wa Afrika wa Darfur. Ripoti ya jarida la Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ilionyesha kuwa kuna uhusiano mkubwa kati ya vita vya Syria na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Ukame mkubwa uliodumu kutoka 2006 hadi 2009 - uliozidishwa na sera za kilimo na matumizi ya maji ya serikali ya Syria - ulisababisha kushindwa kwa mazao mengi, na kuharibu jamii za wakulima. Matokeo yakawa kwamba watu wapatao milioni 1.5 walihamia kutoka maeneo ya mashambani hadi mijini. Mtiririko huo wa watu ulisababisha matatizo kwa serikali na kuongezeka kwa ukosefu wa ajira, na kusababisha msukosuko wa kijamii na hatimaye uasi dhidi ya Rais Bashar al-Assad mwaka 2011. "Mashambulizi hayo yametokeza nafasi ya kutokuwa na nguvu kwa mashirika ya kigaidi kama vile ""IS"" na ""Jabhat al-Nusra"" kupata uhalali miongoni mwa idadi ya watu wa Syria kwa kuwapa huduma za kijamii." elimu, huduma za afya). Nchi za Magharibi hazijaokoka. Nchi za Ulaya zimekaribisha idadi kubwa ya wakimbizi, na hivyo kuwafanya wakazi wa nchi hizo kuwa na hasira na kuwapa mzigo wa ziada uchumi wao ambao bado haujapata nafuu kamili kutokana na mvurugo mkubwa wa kiuchumi. Mashambulizi makubwa ya kigaidi yamefanyika nchini Ufaransa, na Cologne ilipata unyanyasaji wa kingono wa wingi mikononi mwa wahamiaji wa Afrika Kaskazini na Waarabu. "Ingekuwa si sahihi kuelezea mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kama sababu kuu ya matukio haya, lakini kwa hakika sio ""haijumuishi.""" Ili kuepuka ukosefu wa utulivu, nchi zinazoendelea zitahitaji kutekeleza programu za kukabiliana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Kwa sasa, ni asilimia sita tu ya ardhi ya kilimo ya Afrika inayotumiwa kwa umwagiliaji, na hivyo kuwaacha wakulima bila ulinzi dhidi ya mabadiliko ya mvua. Kwa sababu ya ukame mkali na wa mara kwa mara, wakulima watahitaji kujenga mifumo ya umwagiliaji maji ya hali ya juu na kutumia mazao yanayoweza kukabiliana na ukame. Hatua hizi za marekebisho lazima zichochewe na sera ya serikali, ambayo inaweza kutoa wakulima wa mapato ya chini na huduma za ushauri. Hata hivyo, mara nyingi serikali za nchi zinazoendelea hazina rasilimali za kutekeleza programu hizo, na zinahitaji msaada. Mfuko wa Kijani wa Hali ya Hewa (GCF) ulianzishwa na COP16 na utume wa kutoa nchi zisizoendelea (LDCs) na rasilimali za kifedha ili kukabiliana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Katika COP21, nchi zilizoendelea zilikubali kuongeza fedha za marekebisho ya hali ya hewa kutoka $ 10 bilioni hadi $ 100 bilioni ifikapo mwaka 2020. Baada ya kuidhinishwa kwa makubaliano hayo, waziri wa masuala ya mazingira wa Afrika Kusini, Bomo Edna Mwanga, alisema kuwa wajumbe hao wamepata matokeo ya kisheria yenye nguvu, ya haki na yenye ufanisi ambayo sisi kama Waafrika wa Kusini tunaweza kujivunia. Nchi zilizoendelea zitahitaji kuongeza misaada yao ya hali ya hewa kwa kiasi kikubwa katika siku zijazo ili kukidhi mahitaji ya kuongezeka kwa miradi ya kukabiliana na hali ya hewa katika nchi zinazoendelea. Katika COP21, wawekezaji walikubaliana kuanzisha lengo jipya la ufadhili kabla ya 2025 (kwa kutumia $ 100 bilioni kama msingi). Kwa mujibu wa mpango wa mazingira wa Umoja wa Mataifa (UNEP), kufikia mwaka 2050 nchi zisizo na maendeleo zitahitaji msaada wa dola bilioni 210 hadi bilioni 300 kwa mwaka, zaidi ya mara mbili ya fedha zilizopangwa kutoka kwa nchi zilizoendelea. Mashirika ya kimataifa pia yameongeza misaada yao ya hali ya hewa katika jaribio la kufikia lengo la ufadhili wa UNEP. Mnamo Novemba 2015, Benki ya Dunia ilitangaza Mpango wa Biashara wa Hali ya Hewa ya Afrika. Benki hiyo imepanga kujenga uwezo wa bara hilo la kukabiliana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwa kutumia dola bilioni 16 kwa miradi ya kukabiliana na hali hiyo. Miradi hii itajumuisha miundombinu ya kukabiliana na hali ya hewa (kwa mfano: Utoaji wa maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji, maji. """Ni muhimu viongozi wa dunia kufuata ahadi za kifedha walizotoa katika COP21, wakikumbuka athari za usalama za vitendo vyao." Joto la dunia si tatizo la pekee na halipaswi kuchukuliwa kama tatizo hilo. Kushindwa kufadhili mipango ya marekebisho katika nchi za chini inaweza kuwa na athari kubwa katika uwanja wa siasa za juu na usalama wa kitaifa. "Ukamilifu wa mfumo wa kimataifa unategemea sana nia ya nchi zilizoendelea kupanua fedha za marekebisho katika miongo miwili ijayo. """ Wapinzani wa ulinzi ambao mara nyingi hujivunia kuwa "washabiki wa hali ya hewa", wanapaswa kuangalia tena ukweli. Mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yamekuwa na athari mbaya kwa nchi dhaifu, na kuanzisha seti ya athari za mnyororo za kutofautisha ambazo ni karibu haiwezekani kuacha mara moja kuanza. Hii "Pandora's Box" athari <unk> kama unaccounted kwa fedha za marekebisho <unk> itakuwa na matokeo makubwa ya kijiografia na kisiasa. Maoni yaliyotolewa na mwandishi hayaonyeshi maoni ya wafanyakazi wa Glimpse kutoka Globe, wahariri au magavana.