In a recent article in Nature, Peter J. Webster, professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, underlines the importance of regional weather forecasts to avoid losses of live and property.
Hurricane Sandy was not as fatal as it could have been, thanks to accurate and long-range meteorological data and satellite imagery. However, the state of affairs is different in many developing countries. "Although only 5% of tropical cyclones occur in the north Indian Ocean, they account for 95% of such casualties worldwide", states Webster.
While developing countries are theoretically able to access data from global weather-forecast models, they face several obstacles: poor internet connections, low budgets and insufficient capacities to extract regional forecasts from them. The author states that global partnerships could serve as a bridge between the providers of such information and the user community.
In this field there has been significant progress, for example in Bangladesh. Forecasts, produced in Europe and processed in the United States are integrated into the regional disaster-management protocol by local experts. Thanks to the implementation of a hazard-forecasting system as well as effective planning and training, people can be evacuated in due time. Moreover, farmers are now able to take the necessary precautions to save their crops and livestock. Based on a World Bank report, Webster estimates that every dollar invested in this system enabled saving as much as $40.
Katika makala yake ya hivi karibuni katika Nature, Peter J. Webster, profesa wa Sayansi ya Dunia na Anga katika Taasisi ya Teknolojia ya Georgia, anasisitiza umuhimu wa utabiri wa hali ya hewa ya kikanda ili kuepuka hasara za maisha na mali. Kimbunga Sandy hakikuwa na madhara makubwa kama ilivyokuwa, kwa sababu ya data sahihi na za muda mrefu za hali ya hewa na picha za satelaiti. Hata hivyo, hali ni tofauti katika nchi nyingi zinazoendelea. "Hata ingawa ni asilimia 5 tu ya vimbunga vya kitropiki vinavyotokea kaskazini mwa Bahari ya Hindi, vinasababisha asilimia 95 ya vifo hivyo ulimwenguni pote", asema gazeti la Webster. Ingawa nchi zinazoendelea zina uwezo wa kupata data kutoka kwa mifano ya utabiri wa hali ya hewa ya kimataifa, zinakabiliwa na vikwazo kadhaa: uhusiano duni wa mtandao, bajeti ndogo na uwezo mdogo wa kupata utabiri wa kikanda kutoka kwao. Mwandishi anasema kwamba ushirikiano wa kimataifa unaweza kutumika kama daraja kati ya watoaji wa habari kama hiyo na jamii ya watumiaji. Katika uwanja huu kumekuwa na maendeleo makubwa, kwa mfano katika Bangladesh. Utabiri, uliofanywa huko Ulaya na kusindika huko Marekani huingizwa katika itifaki ya usimamizi wa majanga ya kikanda na wataalamu wa mahali hapo. Shukrani kwa utekelezaji wa mfumo wa utabiri wa hatari pamoja na mipango na mafunzo yenye ufanisi, watu wanaweza kuhamishwa kwa wakati unaofaa. Isitoshe, sasa wakulima wanaweza kuchukua tahadhari zinazohitajika ili kuokoa mazao yao na mifugo. Kulingana na ripoti ya Benki ya Dunia, Webster inakadiria kwamba kila dola iliyowekezwa katika mfumo huu iliwezesha kuokoa hadi dola 40.