18. Overton Window: You can control thought without limiting speech. You can do it by defining the limits of acceptable thought while allowing for lively debate within these barriers. For example, Fox News and MSNBC set limits on what political thoughts they consider acceptable, but in the grand scheme of things, they’re both fairly conventional. The political spectrum stretches far beyond the ideas they entertain, but ideas outside their limits are shunned.
19. Planck’s Principle: Science doesn’t progress because people change their views. Rather, each new generation of scientists has different views. As old generations pass away, new ideas are accepted and the scientific consensus changes.
20. Bike-Shed Effect: A group of people working on a project will fight over the most trivial ideas. They’ll ignore what’s complicated. They’ll focus too much on easy-to-understand ideas at the expense of important, but hard to talk about ideas. For example, instead of approving plans for a complicated spaceship, the team would argue over the color of the astronaut's uniforms.
21. Table Selection: This idea comes from poker, where you’re advised to choose your opponents carefully. That means you shouldn’t compete against the best people. You don’t need to get good at doing difficult things if you get good at avoiding difficult things. If you want to win, pick an easy table and nail your execution.
22. Goodhart’s Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. One hospital took too long to admit patients so a penalty was given for 4+ hour wait times. In response, ambulance drivers were asked to slow down so they could shorten wait times.
23. Gall’s Law: A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system.
24. Hock Principle: Simple, clear purpose and principles give rise to complex and intelligent behavior. Complex rules and regulations give rise to simple and stupid behavior.
25. Parkinson’s Law: Work expands to fill the time available. People don’t want to look like they’re lazy, so they find extra tasks to tackle, even if they’re trivial. If you have six months to complete a project, it will take six months to complete. Set deadlines accordingly.
26. The Second Law of Thermodynamics: The world tends towards disorder. That’s why your room becomes messier and messier over time. It’s also why an engine converts only ~35% of its energy into useful work. Time moves towards increasing one direction: increasing entropy.
27. The Paradox of Specificity: Focus isn’t as constraining as it seems. In the age of the Internet, when everybody has Google search and personalized social media feeds, differentiation is free marketing. The more specific your goal, the more opportunities you’ll create for yourself. Narrowing your aperture can expand your horizons.
28. Emergence: When things interact, they often birth new, unpredictable forms. Therefore, the sum total of a system is more than its component parts. As a system evolves, its structure can transform — just like how water becomes cold water until it turns into ice.
29. Occam's Razor: If there are multiple explanations for why something happened and they are equally persuasive, assume the simplest one is true. In the search for truth, remove unnecessary assumptions. Trust the lowest-complexity answer.
30. Hickam’s Dictum: The opposite of Occam’s Razor. In a complex system, problems usually have more than one cause. For example, in medicine, people can have many diseases at the same time.
31. Hormesis: A low dose of something can have the opposite effect of a high dose. A little bit of stress wakes you up, but a lot of stress is bad for you. Lifting weights for 30 minutes per day is good for you, but lifting weights for 6 hours per day will destroy your muscles. Stress yourself, but not too much.
32. Robustness Principle: Be conservative in what you do, be liberal in what you accept from others. It’s a design guideline for software and a good rule for life: Hold yourself to a higher standard than you hold others to.
33. Legibility: We are blind to what we cannot measure. Not everything that counts can be measured, and not everything that can be measured counts. But people manage what they can measure, so society repeats the same mistakes.
34. Horseshoe Theory: Extreme opposites tend to look the same. For example, a far-right movement and a far-left movement can be equally violent or desire a similar outcome. People on both sides are more similar to each other than they are to people in the center.
35. Availability Cascade: A self-reinforcing cycle that creates collective beliefs. An idea will gain traction once it enters the mainstream, which triggers a chain reaction, which causes lots of people to adopt it not because it’s true but because it’s popular.
36. Creativity Begins at the Edge: Change starts away from the spotlight. Then, it moves towards the center. That’s why the most interesting ideas at a conference never come from the main stage. They come from the hallways and the bar after sunset
37. The Copernican Principle: The more we learn about astronomy, the less it seems that earth is special. It's a small part of the universe, and each human is a small part of the earth. We are all spinning through the solar system — nowhere near the beginning or end of time.
38. Personal Monopoly: Corporations reward conformity, but the Internet rewards people who are unique. If you work in a creative field, strive to be the only person who does what you do. Find your own style, then run with it. Create intellectual real estate for yourself.
39. The Paradox of Consensus: Under ancient Jewish law, if a suspect was found guilty by every judge, they were deemed innocent. Too much agreement implied a systemic error in the judicial process. Unanimous agreement sometimes leads to bad decisions.
40. Penny Problem Gap: Economists assume demand is linear, but people’s behavior totally changes once an action costs money. If the inventors of the Internet had known about it, spam wouldn’t be such a problem. If sending an email cost you $0.001, there’d be way less spam.
41. The Invisible Hand: Markets aggregate knowledge. Rising prices signal falling supply or increased demand, which incentivizes an increase in production. The opposite is true for falling prices. Prices are a signal wrapped in an incentive.
42. Base Rate: The average outcome for an event over time. They're like batting averages for life, and they work best with big sample sizes. For example, if you’re starting a business, avoid the restaurant business where margins are low and competition is high.
43. Circle of Competence: Define the limits of your knowledge. Hint: the limits are smaller than you think. That’s because being an expert in one area doesn’t make you an expert in anything else. Be clear about what you know and don’t know.
44. Convexity: If you want to be lucky, look for opportunities with big upsides and low downsides. In addition to increased optionality, your errors will benefit you more than they harm you. Convex payoffs let you tinker your way to success and innovation.
45. The Go-For-It Window: Large gaps between accelerating technologies and stagnating social norms create lucrative new business opportunities. But they are only available for a short time when people can capitalize on the difference between the real and perceived state of the world. For example, 2007 was the perfect time to launch the iPhone, but Google Glasses launched too early.
46. Via Negativa: When we have a problem, our natural instinct is to add a new habit or purchase a fix. But sometimes, you can improve your life by taking things away. For example, the foods you avoid are more important than the foods you eat.
47. The Medium Is the Message: We pay too much attention to what is being said. But the medium of communication is more impactful. For example, the Internet’s impact on humanity has a bigger influence than anything that’s said on the Internet.
48. Resource Curse: Countries with an abundance of natural resources such as diamonds and fossil fuels tend to have less economic growth and worse development than countries with fewer natural resources.
49. The Paradox of Abundance: The average quality of information is getting worse and worse. But the best stuff is getting better and better. Markets of abundance are simultaneously bad for the median consumer but good for conscious consumers.
50. The Map Is Not the Territory: Reality will never match the elegance of theory. All models have inconsistencies, but some are still useful. Some maps are useful because they’re inaccurate. If you want to find an edge, look for what the map leaves out.
51. Baker’s Dozen: The key to good hospitality is to delight your guests with an unexpected gift. If you run a hotel, leave a chocolate on the bed. If you run a bakery, give your customers one extra bagel. If you write a tweetstorm, share an extra idea.
18. - (Methali 28:18) Ni nini? Overton Window: Unaweza kudhibiti mawazo bila kupunguza usemi. Unaweza kufanya hivyo kwa kufafanua mipaka ya mawazo yanayokubalika wakati wa kuruhusu mjadala mkali ndani ya vizuizi hivi. Kwa mfano, Fox News na MSNBC kuweka mipaka juu ya nini mawazo ya kisiasa wao kuzingatia kukubalika, lakini katika mpango mkubwa wa mambo, wao ni wote kwa kiasi fulani kawaida. Maoni ya kisiasa yanazidi sana yale wanayoamini, lakini mawazo yaliyo nje ya mipaka yao huepukwa. 19. (a) Kwa nini? Kanuni ya Planck: Sayansi haifanyi maendeleo kwa sababu watu hubadili maoni yao. Badala yake, kila kizazi kipya cha wanasayansi kina maoni tofauti. Kadiri vizazi vya zamani vinavyopita, mawazo mapya yanakubaliwa na makubaliano ya kisayansi hubadilika. 20. (a) Kwa nini? Athari ya Bike-Shed: Kikundi cha watu wanaofanya kazi kwenye mradi kitapigana juu ya mawazo ya kawaida zaidi. Wao hupuuza kile kilicho tata. Wao itabidi kuzingatia sana juu ya rahisi kuelewa mawazo kwa gharama ya muhimu, lakini vigumu kuzungumza juu ya mawazo. Kwa mfano, badala ya kukubali mipango ya kujenga chombo cha angani, kikundi hicho kilibishana kuhusu rangi ya mavazi ya wanaanga. 21. - (Methali 19:21, 22) Ni nini kilichotokea? Uchaguzi wa meza: Wazo hili linatokana na poker, ambapo unashauriwa kuchagua wapinzani wako kwa uangalifu. Hiyo inamaanisha kwamba hupaswi kushindana na watu bora zaidi. Huna haja ya kuwa mzuri katika kufanya mambo magumu kama wewe kupata nzuri katika kuepuka mambo magumu. Kama unataka kushinda, kuchagua meza rahisi na misumari utekelezaji wako. 22. - (Methali 22:22) Ni nini? Sheria ya Goodhart: Wakati kipimo inakuwa lengo, inaacha kuwa kipimo nzuri. Hospitali moja ilichukua muda mrefu sana kuwakaribisha wagonjwa kwa hivyo adhabu ilipewa kwa muda wa kusubiri wa saa 4+ Kwa sababu hiyo, madereva wa magari ya wagonjwa waliombwa wapunguze mwendo ili wapate muda mfupi wa kungojea. 23. - (Methali 23:23) Ni nini? Sheria ya Gall: Mfumo tata unaofanya kazi daima hupatikana kuwa umebadilika kutoka kwa mfumo rahisi ambao ulifanya kazi. Mfumo tata uliobuniwa kutoka mwanzo hauwezi kamwe kufanya kazi na hauwezi kurekebishwa ili ufanye kazi. Lazima uanze upya na mfumo rahisi unaofanya kazi. 24. - (Methali 24:24) Ni nini? Kanuni ya Hock: Kusudi na kanuni rahisi, zilizo wazi husababisha tabia tata na ya akili. Kanuni na kanuni tata husababisha tabia rahisi na ya kipumbavu. 25. - (Methali 25:28) Ni nini? Sheria ya Parkinson: Kazi huongezeka ili kujaza wakati unaopatikana. Watu hawataki kuonekana kama wao ni mvivu, hivyo wao kupata kazi za ziada ya kukabiliana, hata kama wao ni trivial. Ikiwa una miezi sita ya kukamilisha mradi, utachukua miezi sita kukamilisha. Weka tarehe za mwisho kulingana na hilo. 26 - Ni nini? Sheria ya Pili ya Thermodynamics: Ulimwengu unaelekea kwenye machafuko. Hiyo ndiyo sababu chumba chako kinakuwa na fujo zaidi na zaidi kwa muda. Pia ni kwa nini injini hubadilisha tu ~ 35% ya nishati yake kuwa kazi muhimu. Wakati husonga kuelekea kuongezeka kwa mwelekeo mmoja: kuongezeka kwa entropy. 27. (a) Kwa nini? The Paradox of Specificity: Lengo si kama vikwazo kama inaonekana. Katika enzi ya mtandao, wakati kila mtu ana utafutaji wa Google na kulisha vyombo vya habari vya kijamii, tofauti ni uuzaji wa bure. Kadiri lengo lako linavyozidi kuwa maalum, ndivyo utakavyojifanyia fursa zaidi. Kupunguza kioo chako kunaweza kupanua upeo wa macho yako. 28. (a) Kwa nini? Kuibuka: Mambo yanaposhirikiana, mara nyingi huzaa maumbo mapya yasiyoweza kutabiriwa. Kwa hiyo, jumla ya mfumo ni zaidi ya sehemu zake za sehemu. Kadiri mfumo unavyoendelea, muundo wake unaweza kubadilika - kama vile maji yanavyokuwa maji baridi hadi yanapogeuka barafu. 29. - (Methali 28:9, 10) Kwa nini? "Ockham's Razor: ""Kama kuna maelezo mengi ya sababu ya kitu kilichotokea na yote ni ya kusadikisha, basi yafikiria kwamba mojawapo ya maelezo hayo ni ya kweli.""" Katika kutafuta ukweli, ondoa dhana zisizohitajika. Amini jibu lenye utata mdogo zaidi. Thelathini. Hickam's Dictum: Kinyume cha Occam's Razor. Katika mfumo tata, matatizo kwa kawaida huwa na kisababishi zaidi ya kimoja. Kwa mfano, katika tiba, watu wanaweza kuwa na magonjwa mengi kwa wakati mmoja. 31. - (Methali 31:1, 2) Ni nini? Hormesis: Kiasi kidogo cha kitu fulani chaweza kuwa na athari kinyume cha kipimo kikubwa. Mkazo mdogo unakuamsha, lakini mkazo mwingi ni mbaya kwako. Kuinua uzito kwa dakika 30 kwa siku ni nzuri, lakini kuinua uzito kwa saa 6 kwa siku kuharibu misuli yako. Jitahidi sana, lakini si kupita kiasi. 32. (a) Kwa nini? Kanuni ya Uaminifu: Kuwa mhifadhi katika kile unachofanya, kuwa mkarimu katika kile unachokubali kutoka kwa wengine. Ni miongozo ya kubuni kwa ajili ya programu na sheria nzuri kwa ajili ya maisha: Kushikilia mwenyewe kwa kiwango cha juu kuliko wewe kushikilia wengine. 33. - (Methali 28:9, 10) Kwa nini? Uwezo wa kusoma: Sisi ni vipofu kwa kile ambacho hatuwezi kupima. Si kila kitu kinachohesabiwa kinachoweza kupimwa, na si kila kitu kinachoweza kupimwa kinachohesabiwa. Lakini watu husimamia kile wanachoweza kupima, kwa hiyo jamii hurudia makosa yaleyale. 34. - (Methali 28:3) Nadharia ya Horseshoe: Vipingamizi vikali huelekea kuonekana sawa. Kwa mfano, harakati ya kulia kabisa na harakati ya kushoto kabisa zinaweza kuwa na vurugu sawa au kutaka matokeo sawa. Watu wa pande zote mbili wanafanana zaidi kuliko wale wa katikati. 35. - (Methali 25:5, 6) Kwa nini? Upatikanaji Cascade: Mzunguko wa kujitia nguvu ambayo inajenga imani ya pamoja. Wazo litapata traction mara tu linapowasili kwenye mainstream, ambayo huchochea mfululizo wa athari, ambayo husababisha watu wengi kuikubali sio kwa sababu ni kweli bali kwa sababu ni maarufu. 36. - (Methali 26:28) Ni nini? Ubunifu huanza kwenye ukingo: Mabadiliko huanza mbali na mwangaza. Kisha, inahamia kuelekea katikati. Hiyo ndiyo sababu mawazo ya kuvutia zaidi katika mkutano kamwe kuja kutoka hatua kuu. "Wanaanza kutoka kwenye ukumbi na kutoka kwenye baa baada ya jua kutua saa 37.""" Kanuni ya Copernicus: Kadiri tunavyojifunza zaidi kuhusu elimu ya nyota, ndivyo dunia inavyoonekana kuwa isiyo ya pekee. Ni sehemu ndogo ya ulimwengu, na kila binadamu ni sehemu ndogo ya dunia. Sisi sote tunazunguka-zunguka katika mfumo wa jua - hakuna mahali karibu na mwanzo au mwisho wa wakati. 38. - (Methali 28:8) Je, unajua nini? Usimamizi wa kibinafsi: Makampuni huthawabisha kufuata sheria, lakini Intaneti huthawabisha watu walio wa pekee. Ikiwa unafanya kazi katika uwanja wa ubunifu, jaribu kuwa mtu pekee anayefanya kile unachofanya. Tafuta mtindo wako mwenyewe, kisha ufanye hivyo. Kujenga mali isiyohamishika ya kiakili kwa ajili yako mwenyewe. 39 - Uwe na mtazamo gani? "Kutokana na sheria ya Kiyahudi ya kale, mtu aliyehukumiwa ""alipatikana na hatia na kila hakimu,"" alionwa kuwa asiye na hatia." Makubaliano mengi sana yalitokeza kosa la kimfumo katika utaratibu wa mahakama. Nyakati nyingine makubaliano ya umoja husababisha maamuzi mabaya. arobaini Penny Gap Tatizo: Wataalamu wa uchumi kudhani mahitaji ni linear, lakini tabia ya watu kabisa inabadilika mara moja hatua gharama fedha. Kama wabunifu wa mtandao walikuwa na kujua kuhusu hilo, spam bila kuwa tatizo kama hilo. Kama kutuma barua pepe gharama wewe $ 0.001, kutakuwa na njia kidogo spam. 41. - (Methali 24:21, 22) Ni nini kilichotokea? Mkono usioonekana: Masoko hukusanya maarifa. Kuongezeka kwa bei ni ishara ya kupungua kwa ugavi au kuongezeka kwa mahitaji, ambayo huchochea ongezeko la uzalishaji. Kinyume chake ni kweli kwa ajili ya bei ya kushuka. Bei ni ishara imefungwa katika kichocheo. arobaini na mbili Kiwango cha msingi: Matokeo ya wastani kwa tukio kwa muda. Ni kama wastani wa kupiga kwa maisha, na hufanya kazi bora na ukubwa mkubwa wa sampuli. Kwa mfano, kama wewe ni kuanza biashara, kuepuka biashara ya mgahawa ambapo pembe ni chini na ushindani ni juu. 43. - (Methali 24:21, 22) Kwa nini? Mzunguko wa Uwezo: Fanya mipaka ya maarifa yako. Kumbuka: mipaka ni ndogo kuliko unavyofikiri. Hiyo ni kwa sababu kuwa mtaalamu katika eneo moja haikufanyi kuwa mtaalamu katika kitu kingine chochote. Kuwa wazi kuhusu kile unachojua na kisichojua. 44. - (Mstari wa 14) Kama unataka kuwa na bahati, tafuta fursa zilizo na faida kubwa na hasara ndogo. Mbali na kuongeza upendeleo, makosa yako yatakufaidi zaidi kuliko kukuumiza. Matokeo ya Convex hukuruhusu kurekebisha njia yako ya mafanikio na uvumbuzi. 45 - Ndio. "Kama ""Go-For-It Window,"" pengo kubwa kati ya teknolojia zinazoongeza kasi na kanuni za kijamii zinazozidi kuzorota huunda fursa mpya za biashara." Lakini zinapatikana kwa muda mfupi tu wakati watu wanaweza kutumia tofauti kati ya hali halisi na inayoonekana ya ulimwengu. Kwa mfano, mwaka 2007 ulikuwa wakati mzuri wa kuzindua iPhone, lakini Google Glasses ilizinduliwa mapema sana. 46 - Uwezo wa kuongoza "Kama tuna tatizo, kichocheo chetu cha asili ni kuongeza tabia mpya au kununua suluhisho.""" Lakini wakati mwingine, unaweza kuboresha maisha yako kwa kuondoa vitu. Kwa mfano, vyakula unavyopuuza ni muhimu zaidi kuliko vyakula unavyokula. 47. - (Kichwa cha habari) Ujumbe ni njia ya kuwasiliana: Tunakazia fikira sana yale yanayosemwa. Lakini njia ya mawasiliano ina athari zaidi. Kwa mfano, athari za mtandao kwa ubinadamu zina ushawishi mkubwa kuliko chochote kinachosemwa kwenye mtandao. 48. - (Mstari wa 4) Kwa mfano, nchi zenye utajiri wa madini kama almasi na mafuta ya makaa ya mawe zinaendelea kuwa na maendeleo ya chini kuliko nchi zenye utajiri mdogo wa madini. 49 - Ni nini? Paradox ya Utajiri: Ubora wa habari unazidi kuwa mbaya. Lakini vitu bora zaidi vinazidi kuwa bora. Masoko ya wingi ni wakati huo huo mbaya kwa watumiaji wa kati lakini nzuri kwa watumiaji wenye ufahamu. Hamsini. Ramani Si Eneo: Ukweli hautaweza kamwe kulinganishwa na uzuri wa nadharia. Mifano yote ina kutopatana, lakini baadhi bado ni muhimu. Ramani fulani ni zenye manufaa kwa sababu hazina usahihi. Ikiwa unataka kupata ukingo, tafuta kile ambacho ramani inaachwa nje. 51 - Uwezo wa kufanya hivyo "Kifungu cha ukaribishaji-wageni mzuri ni kuwafurahisha wageni wako kwa zawadi isiyotazamiwa.""" Ikiwa unaendesha hoteli, acha chokoleti kitandani. Ikiwa una duka la kuoka mikate, wape wateja wako bakuli moja ya ziada. Ikiwa una tweet ya tweet, unashiriki wazo la ziada.