As signatory countries of the Paris Agreement are in the process of revising their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) by 2020, climate experts and civil society organizations are calling for countries to adopt more ambitious mitigation targets. How can countries raise their climate ambition while ensuring that national commitments enshrined in the NDC revisions are consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement? The concept of “carbon budget”, gaining prominence in the global climate agenda, might present some answers to this challenge.
A carbon budget is a determined quantity of GHG emissions which can be emitted globally to ensure that the increase in average Earth’s temperature is maintained within a certain range. The global carbon budget can be distributed across countries and sectors and helps define more ambitious mitigation targets compatible with global objectives.
The IKI project “Enhancing the Coherence of Climate and Energy Policies in Mexico” (CONECC), recently supported the NGO Mexican Climate Initiative (ICM) in estimating a carbon budget for Mexico and its power sector. CONECC aims to build bridges between energy and climate change policy to strengthen the sectorial contribution to the NDC. ICM methodology resulted in a Mexican carbon budget of 22.2 GtCO2e between 2019 and 2100, suggesting that if Mexico keeps emitting at the current pace, it would use the entirety of its carbon budget by 2040. Scaling down this value based on historical sectorial emissions, the study calculated a carbon budget of 1.31 GtCO2e for the electricity sector by 2030, equivalent to a 2030 sectorial emissions limit of 101.03 MtCO2e, a significantly more ambitious target than the 139 MtCO2e stated in the NDC.
To discuss these results and collect feedback from civil society actors, ICM and CONECC organized a workshop in Mexico City on the 16th of May. After a series of presentations on the results of the study, the discussion revolved around the following issues:
- Country allocation: should the carbon budget be divided based on each country’s historical emissions, or is there a better way to account for issues of social fairness and burden sharing?
- Sectorial distribution: similarly, should sectorial budgets be allocated based on each sector’s historical emissions, or rather consider the significant differences between sectors’ mitigation potential?
- Implementation: how to promote the concept of carbon budget to Mexican decision makers and integrate it into the revision of the NDC and the existing regulatory framework? building technical capacities within the sector, changing the perception of an economic development reliant on fossil fuels, and promoting the “co-benefits” arising from a carbon budget methodology, were all identified as key success factors.
Next steps will include refining the methodology, conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis of a variety of measures, and formulating recommendations for carbon budgets implementation. This will involve evaluating a budget for various other sectors of the economy and defining cost-effective mitigation scenarios compatible with the proposed targets. CONECC will continue supporting ICM in the effort of promoting the concept of carbon budget with a focus on the power sector, providing policy makers with convincing arguments for an increasingly ambitious climate policy.
Contact: Jonas Russbild, firstname.lastname@example.org
Mkataba wa Paris unaonyesha kuwa nchi wanachama wa Mkataba wa Paris zinapaswa kuamua juu ya mchango wao wa kitaifa (NDC) kwa mwaka 2020, na wataalamu wa hali ya hewa na mashirika ya jamii ya kiraia wanatoa wito kwa nchi wanachama wa Mkataba wa Paris kuchukua hatua za kupunguza. Nchi zinawezaje kuongeza tamaa zao za hali ya hewa wakati kuhakikisha kwamba ahadi za kitaifa zilizoandikwa katika marekebisho ya NDC zinaambatana na malengo ya Mkataba wa Paris? Dhana ya "bajeti ya kaboni", inayopata umaarufu katika ajenda ya hali ya hewa ya kimataifa, inaweza kutoa majibu fulani kwa changamoto hii. Bajeti ya kaboni ni kiasi fulani cha gesi zinazotokana na chafu (GHG) ambazo zinaweza kutolewa ulimwenguni ili kuhakikisha kwamba ongezeko la wastani wa joto la Dunia linadumu ndani ya safu fulani. Bajeti ya kaboni ya kimataifa inaweza kusambazwa katika nchi na sekta na husaidia kufafanua malengo ya kupunguza tamaa zaidi yanayolingana na malengo ya kimataifa. Mradi wa IKI - Kuongeza Upatano wa Sera za Hali ya Hewa na Nishati nchini Mexico (CONEC) - hivi karibuni iliunga mkono shirika lisilo la kiserikali la Mexico Climate Initiative (ICI) katika kukadiria bajeti ya kaboni kwa Mexico na sekta yake ya umeme. Lengo la Mkataba wa NDC ni kujenga madaraja kati ya sera za nishati na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ili kuimarisha mchango wa sekta kwa NDC. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti ya ICM, Mexico ina bajeti ya kaboni ya 22.2 Gt CO2e kati ya 2019 na 2100, ikionyesha kwamba ikiwa itaendelea kutokeza kaboni kwa kasi ya sasa, itaitumia bajeti yake yote ya kaboni kufikia 2040. Kwa kuzingatia kiwango cha chini cha uzalishaji wa sekta, utafiti huo ulihesabu bajeti ya kaboni ya 1.31 Gt CO2e kwa sekta ya umeme ifikapo 2030, sawa na kikomo cha uzalishaji wa sekta ya 2030. Ili kujadili matokeo haya na kukusanya maoni kutoka kwa watendaji wa jamii ya kiraia, ICM na CONECC waliandaa warsha huko Mexico City mnamo Mei 16. Baada ya mfululizo wa maonyesho juu ya matokeo ya utafiti, majadiliano yalizunguka masuala yafuatayo: - Ugawaji wa nchi: Je, bajeti ya kaboni inapaswa kugawanywa kulingana na uzalishaji wa kihistoria wa kila nchi, au kuna njia bora ya kuelezea masuala ya haki ya kijamii na kugawana mzigo? - Usambazaji wa sekta: vivyo hivyo, bajeti za sekta zinapaswa kugawanywa kulingana na uzalishaji wa kila sekta ya kihistoria, au badala yake kuzingatia tofauti kubwa kati ya sekta za uwezo wa kupunguza? - Utekelezaji: jinsi ya kukuza dhana ya bajeti ya kaboni kwa watendaji wa maamuzi wa Mexico na kuijumuisha katika marekebisho ya NDC na mfumo wa udhibiti uliopo? kujenga uwezo wa kiufundi ndani ya sekta, kubadilisha maoni ya maendeleo ya kiuchumi kutegemea mafuta ya mafuta, na kukuza "co-faida" zinazotokana na mbinu ya bajeti ya kaboni, zote zilitambuliwa kama sababu kuu za mafanikio. Hatua za baadaye zitatia ndani kusafisha mbinu, kufanya uchambuzi wa ufanisi wa gharama za hatua mbalimbali, na kutunga mapendekezo ya utekelezaji wa bajeti za kaboni. Hii itahusisha kutathmini bajeti kwa sekta nyingine mbalimbali za uchumi na kufafanua hali ya kupunguza gharama inayofaa inayofaa na malengo yaliyopendekezwa. "KONECC itaendelea kusaidia ICM katika juhudi za kukuza dhana ya ""mwendo wa kaboni"" na kuzingatia sekta ya nishati, kutoa watunga sera na hoja za kusadikisha kwa sera ya hali ya hewa ya tamaa zaidi." Jina la mtu: Jonas Russbild, jina la kwanza. jina la mwisho@example.org