The world’s natural capital is anticipated to decline as climate change redistributes terrestrial ecosystems throughout the planet, resulting in a 9% loss of ecosystem services by 2100. This data comes from a newly published study on natural capital in Nature by scientists from the University of California, Davis, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego.
It can be extremely difficult to measure how clean water, healthy forests, biodiversity, and air to breathe all contribute to people’s well-being. Scientists, economists, and decision-makers refer to the flow of advantages that people currently and, in the future, derive from the natural resources of the planet as “natural capital.”
The big question is what do we lose when we lose an ecosystem? Flipping the question: What do we gain if we are able to limit climate change and avoid some of its impacts on natural systems? This study helps us better consider damages not usually accounted for. It also reveals an overlooked, yet startling dimension of climate change effects on natural systems — its capacity to exacerbate global economic inequality.
Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, Study Lead Author and Postdoctoral Fellow, Scripps Research
Economic conditions deteriorate as countries lose their natural capital. According to the study, by 2100, the gross domestic product (GDP) of every nation examined will have decreased by an average of 1.3% due to changes in flora, rainfall patterns, and increased CO2. Significant disparities in how these effects were distributed were also discovered.
“Our research found that the world’s poorest 50% of countries and regions are expected to bear a staggering 90% of the GDP damages. In sharp contrast, the losses for the wealthiest 10% might be limited to just 2%,” Bastien-Olvera added.
According to the authors, the main reason for this is that countries with lower incomes often depend more on natural resources for economic output and have a higher proportion of wealth in the form of natural capital.
Natural and Economic Values
The study’s authors estimated the effects of climate change on countries’ ecosystem services, economic output, and natural capital stocks using global vegetation models, climate models, and World Bank estimations of natural capital values.
Given that the investigation only took into account land-based systems, namely grasslands and forests, these predictions could be conservative. In further studies, Bastien-Olvera intends to examine the effects on marine ecosystems. Additionally, the study did not take disturbances like wildfires or insect-driven tree mortality into consideration.
Accounting for Nature
The overall results highlight how critical it is to develop climate policies that take into consideration the unique values that every country obtains from its natural systems.
With this study, we are embedding natural systems and human well-being within an economic framework. Our economy and well-being depend on these systems, and we should recognize and account for these overlooked damages when we consider the cost of a changing climate.
Frances C. Moore, Study Senior Author and Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis
National Science Foundation funded the study.
Thanks to the efforts of this research team, we now know that damage to ecosystems impacts human well-being in ways that are both measurable and wildly disproportionate across populations. The results will be critical to abating economic losses in the coming decades.
Jeffrey Mantz, NSF Program Officer
Bastien-Olvera, B. A., et. al. (2023) Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital. Nature. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06769-z
"Mali ya asili ya dunia inatarajiwa kupungua wakati mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanapotawanya mifumo ya ikolojia ya nchi kavu kote duniani, na kusababisha kupoteza kwa 9% ya huduma za mfumo wa ikolojia ifikapo mwaka 2100.""" Utafiti huo ulifanywa na wanasayansi kutoka Chuo Kikuu cha California, Davis, na Taasisi ya Scripps ya Oceanography katika Chuo Kikuu cha California, San Diego. Inaweza kuwa vigumu sana kupima jinsi maji safi, misitu yenye afya, utofauti wa kibiolojia, na hewa ya kupumua yote yanavyoshiriki katika ustawi wa watu. "Wanasayansi, wachumi, na watunga maamuzi wanataja mtiririko wa faida ambazo watu sasa na katika siku zijazo hupata kutoka kwa rasilimali za asili za sayari kama ""mali isiyohamishika"" Swali kubwa ni, tunapopoteza nini wakati tunapopoteza mazingira?" "Kuna swali: ""Tunapata nini ikiwa tunaweza kupunguza mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa na kuepuka baadhi ya athari zake kwenye mifumo ya asili?""" Utafiti huu hutusaidia kufikiria vizuri uharibifu ambao kwa kawaida hauhesabiwi. Pia inaonyesha kipimo kilichopuuzwa, lakini cha kushangaza cha athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwenye mifumo ya asili - uwezo wake wa kuharibu usawa wa kiuchumi wa kimataifa. Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, mwandishi mkuu wa utafiti na mfanyakazi wa baada ya udaktari, Utafiti wa Scripps Hali za kiuchumi zinazidi kuwa mbaya wakati nchi zinapoteza mtaji wao wa asili. Kulingana na utafiti huo, kufikia mwaka 2100 pato la ndani la kila taifa litapungua kwa wastani wa asilimia 1.3 kutokana na mabadiliko ya mimea, mvua na ongezeko la CO2. Tofauti kubwa katika jinsi athari hizi zilivyogunduliwa pia ziligunduliwa. "Utafiti wetu uligundua kuwa 50% ya nchi na mikoa maskini zaidi ulimwenguni inatarajiwa kubeba 90% ya uharibifu wa Pato la Taifa.""" Kwa kulinganisha, hasara kwa 10% tajiri zaidi inaweza kuwa mdogo kwa 2% tu, "Bastien-Olvera aliongeza. Kulingana na waandishi, sababu kuu ya hii ni kwamba nchi zenye mapato ya chini mara nyingi hutegemea zaidi rasilimali za asili kwa pato la kiuchumi na zina uwiano mkubwa wa utajiri katika fomu ya mtaji wa asili. "Wanahisabati wa utafiti huo wamekadiria athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwa huduma za mazingira za nchi, uzalishaji wa kiuchumi, na hisa za mtaji wa asili kwa kutumia mifano ya mimea ya kimataifa, mifano ya hali ya hewa, na makadirio ya Benki ya Dunia ya ""thamani za mtaji wa asili.""" Kwa kuzingatia kwamba uchunguzi ulizingatia tu mifumo ya ardhi, yaani nyasi na misitu, utabiri huu unaweza kuwa wa kihafidhina. Katika masomo zaidi, Bastien-Olvera anakusudia kuchunguza athari kwenye mifumo ya ikolojia ya baharini. Kwa kuongezea, utafiti huo haukuzingatia matatizo kama vile moto wa misitu au vifo vya miti vinavyosababishwa na wadudu. "Hatua hii ya ""Uhesabuji wa Asili"" inaonyesha umuhimu wa kuunda sera za hali ya hewa ambazo zinazingatia thamani ya kipekee ambayo kila nchi hupata kutoka kwa mifumo yake ya asili." Kwa utafiti huu, tunatia mifumo ya asili na ustawi wa binadamu ndani ya mfumo wa kiuchumi. Uchumi wetu na ustawi wetu unategemea mifumo hii, na tunapaswa kutambua na kuelezea uharibifu huu unaopuuzwa tunapozingatia gharama ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Frances C. Moore, mwandishi mwandamizi wa utafiti na profesa msaidizi, Idara ya Sayansi ya Mazingira na Sera, Chuo Kikuu cha California, Davis National Science Foundation ilifadhili utafiti huo. """Kwa sababu ya juhudi za timu hii ya utafiti, sasa tunajua kwamba uharibifu wa mifumo ya ikolojia huathiri ustawi wa binadamu kwa njia ambazo zinaweza kupimwa na kwa kiasi kikubwa kwa idadi ya watu." Matokeo yatakuwa muhimu kwa kupunguza hasara za kiuchumi katika miongo ijayo. Jeffrey Mantz, Mkurugenzi wa Programu ya NSF Bastien-Olvera, B. A., et. al. Matokeo ya hali ya hewa yasiyo ya usawa kwenye thamani ya kimataifa ya mtaji wa asili Asili. (Soma: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16