India-Myanmar rapprochement began in 1991 and gained momentum in the latter part of the decade, as evidenced in the growing political, economic and military cooperation since 1998. This paper argues that it was during the period between 1998 and 2008 that the bilateral relationship withstood the test of critical events. Furthermore, expansion and diversification of these bilateral ties took place during the very same period. This paper identifies some issues that could emerge as potential fissures to upset the relationship. In conclusion, the paper suggests that it is high time the leadership of the two countries initiated measures to address these issues. As the stakes increase for both countries, it is imperative for them to ensure the sustenance of the hard earned relationship.
India and Myanmar share profound historical and cultural links. During the colonial period, both countries were under British India. After their Independence, the two countries cultivated a close relationship that culminated in the signing of the 1951 Treaty of Friendship. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawahar Lal Nehru and Myanmar’s Premier U Nu shared common views on many issues regarding the conduct of international politics and pioneered the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Gen. Ne Win’s period (1962-1988) saw ups and downs in the bilateral relations. Ne Win’s nationalisation programme of the 1960s resulted in the eviction of thousands of people of Indian origin from Myanmar, causing frictions in the relationship. Be that as it may, during the same period, the two countries signed the Land Boundary Agreement (1967) and the Maritime Boundary Agreement (1986).
Between 1988 and 1990, the relationship reached its nadir as a result of India’s strong position against the Myanmar military’s brutal suppression of the pro-democracy uprising and the subsequent takeover of power by the generals. The frozen ties began to thaw after India adopted its “Look East” policy in 1991. The period between 1998 and 2008 was of significance to the relationship for two reasons. First, major initiatives were taken in the late 1990s, resulting in the expansion of the ties in diverse sectors, as indicated by the frequent exchange of high-level visits. Second, the relationship withstood the test of critical events during this period, suggesting that the relationship had reached a degree of maturity and trust.
An examination of India’s policy towards Southeast Asian countries shows that Myanmar figures prominently from all perspectives political, security, economic and strategic. Whether it was the desire to engage the eastern Asian regions or, more particularly, strengthening relations with the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam), India’s renewed focus on them coincided with the strengthening of its bilateral ties with Myanmar. New Delhi sees Myanmar as an important “land-bridge ” on its path to the consolidation of ties with Southeast and East Asia. Myanmar thus fits in very well into India’s regional plans. On the other hand, Myanmar’s India policy has been largely based on its desire to diversify its external engagement. The need for diversification was felt in the face of increasing dependence on China in the late 1990s, which prompted its leadership to reach out to other countries and India was seen as a potential counter-weight to China. Furthermore, Myanmar’s military leadership believes that its improving relation with India boosts its “international image and legitimacy.”
India’s “Look East” policy pulled the two neighbour nations’ ties out of the doldrums it had been languishing in for long years. The policy led to a renewed effort on the part of New Delhi to engage Southeast and East Asia. The initial result was seen in the signing of the border trade agreement in 1994. It needs to be said here that the approach of the two governments was, essentially, one of caution. New Delhi had remained wary of reports that Myanmar granted permission to China for sea access to the Indian Ocean, as also for a Chinese military base in the Bay of Bengal. As for Myanmar, its military leadership had remained chary of New Delhi’s position on Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement. While the Myanmar junta appeared to have played a cautious game, observing New Delhi’s moves and actions, it was also growing increasingly uncomfortable with its heavy dependence on China.
New Delhi cultivated this convergence of interests between the two countries to give an added push to its ties with Myanmar. There has, therefore, been a gradual increase in the comfort level between the two leaderships since 1998, though till that time, the ties were at a low key because of internal factors. By 1996, India and Myanmar appeared set to take their relations to a higher level. However, the incumbent government of India was voted out of power in May 1996. From May 1996 to March 1998, the country saw three prime ministers and none of their governments could stay long enough to take important policy decisions and the process of enhancing bilateral relations stagnated.
In the late 1990s, Myanmar decided to relax its isolationist stance and diversify its foreign policy. It started by joining the region’s most dynamic grouping Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1997 and subsequently other sub-regional groupings, such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) in December 1997 and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) in 2000. In 2001, Myanmar also purchased 15 Russian MiG-29 fighters . All this indicated that Myanmar now fully realized that, if it were to minimize its dependence on China, it needed to engage with other important countries and regions.
In 1998, with a new government in place in New Delhi under Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee, bilateral relations were given a renewed push. The first important visit was that of the Senior General Maung Aye, the Deputy Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to India in January 2000. Since then, several top level visits have taken place, notable among them being those of Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of the SPDC in October 2004 and Senior General Maung Aye’s second visit in April 2008. From the Indian side, Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat visited Myanmar in November 2003, followed by President A.P.J Abdul Kalam’s visit in March 2006. During these visits, several agreements and MoUs were signed.
Bilateral cooperation was initiated in many areas, including strategic and energy sectors. Of special importance in strengthening political ties was the visit of Than Shwe in 2004, during which Myanmar expressed its support to India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. The media reports of Chinese military base in Myanmar were also toned-down after India’s Navy Chief visited Myanmar’s Great Coco Island in 2004. Relations were further consolidated when India supported the military regime’s political transition plan after the September 2007 uprising. India also supported Myanmar’s desire to become a member of SAARC and welcomed its joining the regional grouping.
During the visit of Sr. Gen. Maung Aye to India in early April 2008, significant agreements were signed, specially the Kaladan Multi Modal 10 Transit Transport Project. During his visit to Myanmar in September 2007, Minister of Petroleum Murli Deora signed an agreement on energy exploration.
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K. Yhome was Senior Fellow with ORFs Neighbourhood Regional Studies Initiative. His research interests include Indias regional diplomacy regional and sub-regionalism in South and Southeast ...Read More +
Uhusiano kati ya India na Myanmar ulianza mwaka 1991 na uliongezeka katika sehemu ya mwisho ya miaka kumi, kama inavyoonekana katika ushirikiano wa kisiasa, kiuchumi na kijeshi unaoongezeka tangu 1998. Katika makala hii, alisisitiza kuwa ni wakati wa kipindi kati ya 1998 na 2008 kwamba uhusiano wa nchi mbili ulivumilia mtihani wa matukio muhimu. Zaidi ya hayo, upanuzi na utofauti wa mahusiano haya ya nchi mbili ulifanyika katika kipindi hicho hicho. Karatasi hii inatambua baadhi ya masuala ambayo yanaweza kutokea kama ufa uwezekano wa kuharibu uhusiano. Kwa kumalizia, karatasi hiyo inaonyesha kuwa ni wakati wa uongozi wa nchi hizo mbili kuanzisha hatua za kushughulikia masuala haya. """Kama vile mizigo inazidi kuongezeka kwa nchi zote mbili, ni muhimu kwa nchi hizo kuhakikisha uhifadhi wa uhusiano wao ambao umepata kwa bidii." India na Myanmar zinashiriki uhusiano wa kina wa kihistoria na kitamaduni. Wakati wa kipindi cha ukoloni, nchi zote mbili zilikuwa chini ya India ya Uingereza. Baada ya kupata uhuru, nchi hizo mbili zilianzisha uhusiano wa karibu ambao ulifikia kilele cha kusaini Mkataba wa Urafiki wa 1951. Waziri Mkuu wa kwanza wa India, Jawaharlal Nehru, na Waziri Mkuu wa Myanmar, U Thant, walishiriki maoni ya kawaida juu ya masuala mengi kuhusu mwenendo wa siasa za kimataifa na kuanzisha Harakati ya Kutokuungana (NAM). Kipindi cha Jenerali Ne Win (1962-1988) kiliona mapinduzi na mapungufu katika mahusiano ya nchi mbili. Programu ya utaifa wa Ne Win ya miaka ya 1960 ilisababisha kufukuzwa kwa maelfu ya watu wa asili ya Kihindi kutoka Myanmar, ikisababisha msuguano katika uhusiano huo. Mkataba wa mpaka wa nchi za baharini ulifungwa mwaka 1967 na mkataba wa mpaka wa nchi za nchi za mashariki mwaka 1986. Kati ya mwaka 1988 na 1990, uhusiano huo ulifikia kilele chake kutokana na msimamo thabiti wa India dhidi ya ukandamizaji mkali wa jeshi la Myanmar wa uasi wa pro-demokrasia na kuchukua mamlaka na majenerali. Uhusiano huo ulianza kuharibika baada ya India kupitisha sera ya 'Look East' mwaka 1991. Kipindi cha kati ya mwaka 1998 na 2008 kilikuwa muhimu kwa uhusiano kwa sababu mbili. Kwanza, mipango mikubwa ilichukuliwa mwishoni mwa miaka ya 1990, na kusababisha upanuzi wa uhusiano katika sekta mbalimbali, kama inavyoonyeshwa na kubadilishana mara kwa mara ya ziara za ngazi ya juu. Pili, uhusiano huo ulivumilia majaribio ya matukio muhimu wakati huo, ikionyesha kwamba uhusiano huo ulikuwa umefikia kiwango fulani cha ukomavu na uaminifu. Uchunguzi wa sera ya India kuelekea nchi za Kusini Mashariki mwa Asia unaonyesha kwamba Myanmar inaonekana sana kutoka kwa mitazamo yote ya kisiasa, usalama, kiuchumi na kimkakati. "Kama ni hamu ya kujihusisha na mikoa ya Asia Mashariki au, hasa, kuimarisha mahusiano na nchi za CLMV (Kambodia, Laos, Myanmar na Vietnam), ""mtazamo mpya wa India juu yao ulifanana na kuimarisha mahusiano yake ya nchi mbili na Myanmar.""" New Delhi inaiona Myanmar kama "daraja la ardhi" muhimu kwenye njia yake ya kuimarisha uhusiano na Asia ya Kusini Mashariki na Mashariki. Hivyo Myanmar inafaa vizuri sana katika mipango ya mkoa wa India. Kwa upande mwingine, sera ya India ya Myanmar imejitegemea sana hamu yake ya kugawanya ushiriki wake wa nje. Uhitaji wa kupanua ulionekana katika kukabiliana na kuongezeka kwa utegemezi wa China mwishoni mwa miaka ya 1990, ambayo ilisababisha uongozi wake kufikia nchi nyingine na India ilionekana kama uwezekano wa kulinganisha China. "Kuna taarifa kwamba viongozi wa kijeshi wa Myanmar wanaamini kuwa kuboresha uhusiano wao na India kunaongeza ""sura yao ya kimataifa na uhalali"" na sera ya India ya ""Angalia Mashariki"" ilivuta uhusiano kati ya mataifa hayo mawili ya jirani kutoka kwenye hali mbaya ambayo ilikuwa imedumu kwa miaka mingi." Sera hiyo ilisababisha juhudi mpya kutoka kwa New Delhi ya kushiriki Kusini Mashariki na Mashariki mwa Asia. Mkataba wa biashara ya mpakani ulifungwa mwaka 1994. Ni lazima iseme hapa kwamba mbinu ya serikali hizo mbili ilikuwa, kimsingi, moja ya tahadhari. India imesisitiza kuwa Myanmar imetoa ruhusa kwa China kwa ajili ya upatikanaji wa bahari katika Bahari ya Hindi, na pia kwa ajili ya kituo cha kijeshi cha China katika Ghuba ya Bengal. Kwa upande wa Myanmar, uongozi wake wa kijeshi ulikuwa umebaki na wasiwasi wa msimamo wa New Delhi juu ya harakati ya demokrasia ya Myanmar. Wakati junta ya Myanmar ilionekana kuwa imecheza mchezo wa tahadhari, ikitazama hatua na vitendo vya New Delhi, pia ilikuwa ikikua isiyofurahisha zaidi na zaidi na utegemezi wake mkubwa kwa China. New Delhi ilisitawisha kuungana kwa maslahi kati ya nchi hizo mbili ili kuongeza nguvu kwa uhusiano wake na Myanmar. Kwa hivyo, kumekuwa na ongezeko la hatua kwa hatua katika kiwango cha faraja kati ya uongozi wa nchi hizo mbili tangu 1998, ingawa hadi wakati huo, uhusiano ulikuwa chini kwa sababu ya sababu za ndani. Mwaka 1996 India na Myanmar zilionekana kuwa tayari kuchukua mahusiano yao kwa kiwango cha juu. Hata hivyo, serikali ya India iliyokuwa ikisimamia nchi hiyo iliondolewa madarakani mnamo Mei 1996. Tangu Mei 1996 hadi Machi 1998, nchi hiyo iliona waziri mkuu watatu na hakuna serikali yao ambayo iliweza kukaa kwa muda mrefu wa kutosha kuchukua maamuzi muhimu ya sera na mchakato wa kuboresha mahusiano ya nchi mbili ulisimama. Mwishoni mwa miaka ya 1990, Myanmar iliamua kupunguza msimamo wake wa kujitenga na kugawanya sera yake ya kigeni. Mkataba huo ulifungwa mwaka 1997 na Umoja wa Mataifa wa Asia ya Kusini-Mashariki (ASEAN) na kuanzishwa mwaka 1997 na Umoja wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa (MICI) na Mkataba wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa (MICI) wa Kimataifa wa Kimataifa (MICI). Mwaka 2001, Myanmar ilinunua ndege 15 za kivita za MiG-29 kutoka Urusi. "Hii inaonyesha kuwa Myanmar sasa inafahamu kikamilifu kwamba ikiwa inapaswa kupunguza utegemezi wake kwa China, inahitaji kushirikiana na nchi na mikoa mingine muhimu. """ Mwaka 1998 serikali mpya ilifanyika mjini New Delhi, India, chini ya uongozi wa Waziri Mkuu A.B. Vajpayee, mahusiano ya nchi mbili yalipewa msukumo mpya. Mkutano huo ulifanyika mnamo Januari 2000 na Jenerali Maung Aye, Msaidizi wa Mwenyekiti wa Baraza la Taifa la Amani na Maendeleo (SPDC) nchini India. Tangu wakati huo, ziara kadhaa za ngazi ya juu zimetokea, maarufu kati yao ni zile za Jenerali Mkuu Than Shwe, Mwenyekiti wa SPDC mnamo Oktoba 2004 na ziara ya pili ya Jenerali Mkuu Maung Aye mnamo Aprili 2008. Naibu Rais wa India, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, alitembelea Myanmar mnamo Novemba 2003, ikifuatiwa na Rais wa India, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam mnamo Machi 2006. Wakati wa ziara hizi, makubaliano kadhaa na Mkataba wa Mkataba ulitiwa saini. Ushirikiano wa nchi mbili ulianzishwa katika maeneo mengi, ikiwa ni pamoja na sekta za kimkakati na nishati. Katika ziara ya kwanza ya Rais Thaksin Shinawatra mnamo 2004, Myanmar ilionyesha msaada wake kwa India kwa kiti cha kudumu katika Baraza la Usalama la Umoja wa Mataifa. Taarifa za vyombo vya habari kuhusu kituo cha kijeshi cha China nchini Myanmar pia zilipunguzwa baada ya mkuu wa jeshi la wanamaji la India kutembelea kisiwa cha Great Cocos nchini Myanmar mwaka 2004. Uhusiano huo uliongezeka wakati India ilipochangia mpango wa mpito wa kisiasa wa serikali ya kijeshi baada ya mapinduzi ya Septemba 2007. India pia iliunga mkono hamu ya Myanmar kuwa mwanachama wa SAARC na kuikaribisha kujiunga na kundi la kikanda. Wakati wa ziara ya Rais Maung Aung Hlaing nchini India, makubaliano muhimu yalifikiwa, hasa mradi wa usafiri wa Kaladan Multi-Modal 10. Wakati wa ziara yake ya Myanmar mnamo Septemba 2007, Waziri wa Petroli Murli Deora alisaini makubaliano juu ya utafutaji wa nishati. 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