February was a mixed pattern for both temperature and precipitation. What will the spring season bring to Kansas? The 6-to-10 and 8-to-14 day outlooks favor a continuation of the cooler-than-normal pattern into early March. The remainder of the outlook for March also favors a continuation of that trend (Fig. 1, lower right). The precipitation outlook (Fig. 1, upper right) is less certain, with equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation, the exception being for the extreme eastern part of the state where there is a slight chance of below-normal precipitation. This pattern would be more favorable for spring fieldwork and calving than last year.
Figure 1. March outlooks for temperature and precipitation versus the 30-year normal for Kansas. Source: Kansas Weather Data Library and Climate Prediction Center
Looking towards the spring period (March through May), the temperature outlook is neutral across the state, with equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures. However, this does not indicate how those temperatures may be distributed. A moderate start to the spring would allow for a gradual start to the growing season. That in turn would reduce vulnerability to any late frost event.
After a below-normal precipitation outlook for March along the eastern borders, equal chances of above/below normal moisture to slightly above-normal precipitation shows along these same areas for the spring according to the Climate Prediction Center (Fig. 2, lower right). Currently, the western third of the state has drier soil moistures at the surface and would benefit from a normal precipitation pattern. A normal precipitation would especially assist fall-planted crops such as winter wheat and canola as they emerge from dormancy. Further east, with continued high rivers, reservoirs and soil moisture, a slightly drier pattern would be beneficial. Even with below-normal precipitation, flooding risks will remain elevated for east/central Kansas through the spring.
Figure 2. Spring outlooks for temperature and precipitation versus the 30-year normal during March, April, and May for Kansas. Source: Kansas Weather Data Library and Climate Prediction Center
The science behind the outlooks
The ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is neutral. This means other factors, such as antecedent conditions, other patterns/oscillations around the globe, and placement/strength of the jet stream will be most dominant. Historically, spring is a period of strong steering winds and jet stream across the central U.S. resulting in conditions that are more active. Frontal passages become more common and are usually warmer/wetter. The pattern becomes more reliant on tropical conditions elsewhere and the location of any ridges of high pressure to our west.
Has the active period thus far in 2020 been a sign of things to come this spring? Possibly. The previous period observed very active sub-tropical jet stream contributions across the southern United States typical of ENSO neutral conditions. This was also driven by a combination of a highly anomalous Arctic Oscillation and a previously strong Indian Ocean Dipole. These conditions have seen recent trends downward toward more neutral conditions and are forecasted to continue. A neutral-to-negative Arctic Oscillation will allow colder air over the northeast U.S. and a storm track more eastward than previous seen. The March forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is very similar to this pattern. However, persistence of warmer-than-normal conditions have occurred over the last decade with summer tending to arrive earlier. Therefore, warmer-than-normal conditions are highly favored as we enter April/May – typically as warmer overnight temperatures.
Precipitation-wise, a storm track further east would usually place most of Kansas in a drier pattern. While this may be welcomed for many – it could also influence severe weather, as well as increased fire weather. Early spring often provides a southwesterly trajectory across the state into Kansas with strong storm systems. The growing drought, with the below-average snow pack, in the southwest would mean this flow provides drier/warmer-than-normal conditions. This could also fuel drought further in the western portions of the state. Further east/north, these storm systems would provide a different impact with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Basically, a double edged sword of systems fueling drought and flooding simultaneously. Hence, the introduction of a gradient of expected precipitation for the three-month period across the state.
During the spring season, severe weather frequently accompanies the frontal passages. In addition to the severe components of tornadoes, hail, and high winds, heavy rainfall is climatologically increasing. The frequency of such events cannot be determined by current model outputs but will become more likely. As will conditions conducive for wildfires, since late February through mid-April are the climatological “fire season” in Kansas. This year, the concern for large wildfires is higher than 2019. This is a result of increased rainfall last year leading to a high grass yield and resulting fuel load. While these fires still require conducive weather conditions, increasing fire behavior and suppression issues have already been noted on recent smaller fires.
Mary Knapp, Assistant State Climatologist and Weather Data Library
Chip Redmond, Weather Data Library/Mesonet
Februari ilikuwa na hali tofauti ya joto na mvua. Msimu wa masika utaleta nini Kansas? Matarajio ya siku 6 hadi 10 na 8 hadi 14 yanaunga mkono mwendelezo wa muundo wa baridi kuliko kawaida hadi mwanzoni mwa Machi. Mabaki ya mtazamo kwa ajili ya Machi pia inasaidia mwendelezo wa mwenendo huo (Fig. 1, chini kulia). Matarajio ya mvua (Fig. "Hakuna uwezekano wa kuwa na mvua ya kawaida au ya kawaida, isipokuwa katika sehemu ya mashariki ya jimbo ambapo kuna uwezekano mdogo wa mvua ya kawaida.""" Mfano huu ungekuwa mzuri zaidi kwa ajili ya kazi ya shamba ya majira ya kuchipua na kuzaa kuliko mwaka jana. Picha ya 1. Machi: Maendeleo ya joto na mvua ya kawaida ya miaka 30 kwa Kansas Kansas Weather Data Library na Kituo cha Utabiri wa Hali ya Hewa: Kuangalia kipindi cha majira ya kuchipua (Machaka ya Machi hadi Mei), mtazamo wa joto ni wa upande wa nje katika jimbo, na nafasi sawa za joto la juu au chini ya kawaida. Hata hivyo, hii haionyeshi jinsi joto hizo zinaweza kusambazwa. Mwanzo wa wastani wa majira ya kuchipua ungewezesha kuanza kwa hatua kwa hatua kwa msimu wa kukua. Hilo lingepunguza uwezekano wa kupatwa na baridi kali. Baada ya matarajio ya chini ya kawaida ya mvua kwa Machi kwenye mipaka ya mashariki, nafasi sawa ya juu ya unyevu wa kawaida hadi mvua ya juu ya kawaida inaonyesha katika maeneo haya sawa kwa masika kulingana na Kituo cha Utabiri wa Hali ya Hewa (Fig. 2, chini kulia). Kwa sasa, sehemu ya tatu ya magharibi ya jimbo ina unyevu wa udongo kavu juu ya uso na ingefaidika na muundo wa kawaida wa mvua. Mvua ya kawaida itasaidia hasa mazao yaliyopandwa wakati wa vuli kama vile ngano ya majira ya baridi na canola wakati wanapoondoka kwenye usingizi. Mbali zaidi mashariki, kwa sababu ya mito mikubwa, mabwawa, na unyevu wa udongo, hali ya ukame ingekuwa nzuri. Hata na mvua chini ya kawaida, hatari ya mafuriko itabaki juu kwa mashariki / kati ya Kansas kupitia spring. Picha ya 2. Matarajio ya joto na mvua ya majira ya kuchipua dhidi ya kawaida ya miaka 30 wakati wa Machi, Aprili, na Mei kwa Kansas "Kifaa cha utafiti: Kansas Weather Data Library na Kituo cha Utabiri wa Hali ya Hewa ""El Niño-Southern Oscillation"" (ENSO) ni moja ya mifumo ya hali ya hewa ya hali ya hewa ya hali ya hewa ya hali ya hewa ya hali ya hewa." Hii inamaanisha sababu nyingine, kama vile hali za awali, mifumo mingine ya oscillations duniani kote, na nafasi ya nguvu ya jet itakuwa kubwa zaidi. Kwa kawaida, msimu wa spring ni kipindi cha upepo mkali wa kuongoza na mkondo wa jet katika eneo la kati la Marekani, na matokeo yake ni hali ya hewa ya joto. Njia za mbele huwa za kawaida zaidi na kwa kawaida huwa na joto zaidi au mvua zaidi. Mfano huo unategemea zaidi hali za kitropiki mahali pengine na mahali pa milima yoyote ya shinikizo la juu upande wetu wa magharibi. Je, kipindi cha shughuli hadi sasa katika 2020 imekuwa ishara ya mambo yanayokuja msimu huu wa majira ya kuchipua? Yawezekana. Katika kipindi cha awali, mchango wa mkondo wa jet wa kitropiki ulionekana katika sehemu ya kusini mwa Marekani, na ni wa kawaida kwa hali za ENSO. Hii pia ilisababishwa na mchanganyiko wa Oscillation ya Aktiki isiyo ya kawaida na Dipole ya Bahari ya Hindi iliyokuwa na nguvu hapo awali. Hali hizi zimeona mwenendo wa hivi karibuni wa kushuka kuelekea hali zisizo na athari na zinatabiriwa kuendelea. Mzunguko wa Arctic Oscillation unaoelekea upande wa kaskazini-mashariki utawezesha hewa baridi zaidi juu ya kaskazini-mashariki mwa Marekani na mlipuko wa dhoruba zaidi kuelekea mashariki kuliko ilivyoonekana hapo awali. Utabiri wa Machi kutoka Kituo cha Utabiri wa Hali ya Hewa ni sawa sana na muundo huu. Hata hivyo, hali ya joto zaidi ya kawaida imeendelea katika muongo uliopita na majira ya joto yanaelekea kufika mapema. Kwa hiyo, hali ya joto kuliko kawaida ni favored sana kama sisi kuingia Aprili / Mei <unk> kawaida kama joto usiku joto. Kwa habari ya mvua, kwa kawaida msiba unaotokea mashariki zaidi ungefanya sehemu kubwa ya Kansas iwe kavu zaidi. Wakati hii inaweza kuwa kukaribishwa kwa wengi <unk> inaweza pia kuathiri hali ya hewa kali, kama vile kuongezeka kwa hali ya hewa ya moto. Mapema katika majira ya kuchipua mara nyingi hutoa trajectory kusini magharibi katika hali katika Kansas na mifumo ya dhoruba nguvu. Ukame unaoongezeka, na theluji ya chini ya wastani, kusini magharibi ingemaanisha mtiririko huu hutoa hali kavu zaidi au joto kuliko kawaida. Hii pia inaweza kuongeza ukame zaidi katika sehemu za magharibi za jimbo hilo. Zaidi mashariki na kaskazini, mifumo hii ya dhoruba itatoa athari tofauti na mvua kubwa na dhoruba za radi. Kimsingi, ni upanga wenye makali mawili wa mifumo inayochochea ukame na mafuriko wakati huohuo. Kwa hiyo, kuanzishwa kwa gradient ya mvua inayotarajiwa kwa kipindi cha miezi mitatu kote jimbo. Wakati wa majira ya kuchipua, mara nyingi hali ya hewa mbaya huambatana na njia za mbele. Mbali na vimbunga, mvua ya mawe, na upepo mkali, mvua nyingi za mvua zinaongezeka kwa sababu ya hali ya hewa. Mzunguko wa matukio kama hayo haiwezi kuamuliwa na pato la sasa la mfano lakini itakuwa uwezekano zaidi. Kama hali itakavyokuwa nzuri kwa moto wa misitu, tangu mwishoni mwa Februari hadi katikati ya Aprili ni "mwaka wa moto" wa hali ya hewa huko Kansas. Mwaka huu, wasiwasi wa moto mkubwa wa misitu ni mkubwa kuliko mwaka 2019. Hii ni matokeo ya kuongezeka kwa mvua mwaka jana na kusababisha mavuno ya juu ya nyasi na matokeo ya mzigo wa mafuta. Ingawa moto huu bado unahitaji hali nzuri ya hali ya hewa, kuongezeka kwa tabia ya moto na masuala ya kukandamiza tayari yamegunduliwa kwenye moto mdogo wa hivi karibuni. Mary Knapp, Msaidizi wa Hali ya Hewa wa Jimbo na Maktaba ya Takwimu za Hali ya Hewa Chip Redmond, Maktaba ya Takwimu za Hali ya Hewa/Mesonet