Thoughts inspired by the news near the anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hirishoma and Nagasaki
Britain’s estimated nuclear stockpile is estimated to be 225 warheads, of which no more than 160 are available to be operational at any time, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (http://bos.sagepub.com/content/67/5/89.full.pdf+html). The costs of “cleanup” of Sellafield, the site that produced the plutonium for these bombs is now estimated at 67.5 billion pounds, or about 100 billion dollars (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sellafield-failed-by-private-cleanup-firms-series-of-expensive-mistakes-has-led-to-review-at-nuclear-plant-8735040.html). A modest amount of electricity was produced there, but far short of the cleanup cost, which may yet rise. More than 100 metric tons of plutonium for civilian purposes were produced but have less than zero value. In simple economic terms, the civilian plutonium is a liability not an asset.
So, as a practical matter, most of the $100 billion must be chalked up as the cost of Britain’s nuclear bombs, since that was the only (arguably) “useful” output. That is roughly $600 million dollars per operational bomb in Sellafield clean up costs alone. Then add remediation of all the other bomb-related sites and the costs of setting up and running the nuclear bomb complex.
In the United States cumulative costs to the year 1996 were about $5.5 trillion (1995 dollars), including not only the bombs, but the delivery systems, personnel, etc. incurred until then. It has been increasing by tens of billions each year since. Cleanup will total hundreds of billions of dollars. And, according to current plans, many sites will be left with significant amounts of contamination. (For an accounting of the U.S. program, See Atomic Audit, Brookings Institute, 1998, ed. Stephen Schwartz. I was one of the authors. It’s available from IEER’s website (http://ieer.org/resource/books/atomic-audit/)
In the meantime, Fuksuhima continues to be an emergency without end – vast amounts of radioactivity, including strontium-90 in the groundwater, evidence of leaks into the sea, the prospect of contaminated seafood. Strontium-90, being a calcium analog, bioaccumulates in the food chain. It is likely to be a seaside nightmare for decades. (Listen to Arjun discuss the ongoing radioactivity leaks in an interview with Living on Earth radio: http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=13-P13-00030&segmentID=4)
According to the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/27/world/asia/operator-of-fukushima-plant-criticized-for-delaying-disclosures-on-leaks.html), Shunichi Tanaka, chairman of Japan’s new Nuclear Regulation Authority chairman, recently said:
“The difficulties we face at Fukushima Daiichi are on par with the difficulties we faced in the wake of World War II. Tepco [the Tokyo Electric Power Company] needs more assistance from others in Japan, me included. We cannot force everything on Tepco; that’s probably not going to solve the problem.”
So nuclear power has gone from a promise of “too cheap to meter” to a disaster like the horrific post-war rubble in Japan. And the biggest bang for the buck that was supposed to be the bomb has become endless bucks for the bang. A sad reminder as we approach the anniversaries of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
"Hadithi ya ""Bubble of Atomic Scientists"" ya mwaka 2017 ilisema kwamba ""kiwango cha silaha za nyuklia nchini Uingereza ni 225 na hakuna zaidi ya 160 kati ya hizo zinazotumika wakati wowote,"" kulingana na jarida la ""Bulletin of Atomic Scientists"" (http: bossa.com)." "Mfano wa ""sellafield"" ni eneo la Sellafield, ambalo lilitengenezwa na makampuni ya kuondoa mabomu ya nyuklia, na sasa lina thamani ya dola bilioni 67 (http: www.sellafield.co.uk) na ""sellafield"" ni eneo ambalo limeharibiwa na makampuni ya kusafisha mabomu ya nyuklia." Kiasi kidogo cha umeme kilitengenezwa huko, lakini ni kidogo sana kwa gharama ya kusafisha, ambayo bado inaweza kuongezeka. Zaidi ya tani 100 za plutonium zilitengenezwa kwa ajili ya matumizi ya kiraia lakini hazina thamani yoyote. Kwa maneno sahili ya kiuchumi, plutonium ya kiraia ni dhima si mali. Kwa hivyo, kama jambo la vitendo, zaidi ya bilioni 100 lazima iandikwe kama gharama ya mabomu ya nyuklia ya Uingereza, kwani hiyo ilikuwa pato pekee (inaweza kusemwa) la "nefa". Kwa mfano, kwa kila bomu la Sellafield, gharama za kusafisha ni milioni 600 kwa mwaka. Kisha ongeza kurekebisha maeneo mengine yote yanayohusiana na bomu na gharama za kuanzisha na kuendesha jengo la bomu la nyuklia. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti ya mwaka 1996 ya Marekani, gharama za ujenzi wa mabomu hayo zilikuwa dola bilioni 5.5 na ni pamoja na vifaa vya kuzileta, wafanyakazi na vifaa vingine. zilizotokea hadi wakati huo. Tangu wakati huo, idadi hiyo imekuwa ikiongezeka kwa mamia ya mabilioni kila mwaka. Usafi utagharimu jumla ya mamia ya mabilioni ya dola. Na, kulingana na mipango ya sasa, maeneo mengi yataachwa na kiasi kikubwa cha uchafuzi. (Kwa maelezo zaidi kuhusu programu hiyo ya Marekani, ona Atomic Audit, Brookings Institute, 1998, toleo la Kiingereza.) Stephen Schwartz. Nilikuwa mmoja wa waandishi. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika tovuti ya IERR (http: www.ieer.org) ""Fukushima inaendelea kuwa hali ya dharura bila mwisho, kiasi kikubwa cha mnururisho, ikiwa ni pamoja na strontiamu-90 katika maji ya chini ya ardhi, ushahidi wa uvujaji baharini, matarajio ya chakula cha baharini kilichochafuliwa.""" Strontiamu-90 ni analogi ya kalsiamu na hujipanga katika mfumo wa chakula. Yaelekea itakuwa ndoto mbaya ya pwani kwa miongo mingi. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika makala ya ""Fukushima: The Nuclear Disaster"" ya gazeti la The New York Times, Shunichi Tanaka, mwenyekiti wa Shirika la Usimamizi wa Nyuklia la Japan, alisema hivi karibuni: ""Matatizo tunayoyakabili katika Fukushima ni sawa na matatizo tuliyokabili baada ya Vita Kuu ya Pili ya Dunia." Tepco [Kampuni ya Umeme ya Tokyo] inahitaji msaada zaidi kutoka kwa wengine nchini Japani, kutia ndani mimi. "Hatuwezi kulazimisha kila kitu juu ya Tepco; hiyo ""labda haitashughulikia tatizo.""Kwa hivyo nguvu ya nyuklia imepita kutoka ahadi ya ""bado nafuu kwa mita"" kwa msiba kama mabaki ya kutisha ya baada ya vita nchini Japan." Na bang kubwa kwa ajili ya buck kwamba ilikuwa inapaswa kuwa bomu imekuwa bucks kutokuwa na mwisho kwa bang. Hii ni kumbukumbu ya kusikitisha wakati tunakaribia maadhimisho ya miaka ya mabomu ya Hiroshima na Nagasaki.