After the Assam killings
The massive electoral violence in Assam, a northeastern state of India, requires a more adequate explanation than has been offered so far. Previously the agitation in Assam was primarily, though not entirely, an urban phenomenon and the problem was not a typical Hindu-Muslim problem. But the massacre of Bengali Muslims by Hindu tribesmen in the villages might change the meaning of the Assam issue.
Historically, Assam has witnessed one of the highest rates of in-migration in India. Bengalis constituted the largest group - Muslim peasants from East Bengal (now Bangla-desh), and middle-class urban professionals, mostly Hindus, from West Bengal. The Bengali-speaking thus were both Hindus and Muslims. The Bengali Hindus captured the urban professions for they had a head start in the field of education.
The Muslim Bengali peasantry, on the other hand, came from an area having very high population density but low agricultural productivity and a fragmented land structure incapable of supporting large families. To these peasants, Assam was a land of opportunity. Lands were virgin, and the Assamese rural folks, consisting of tribes also, did not have strong enough incentives to break out of their traditional, easy-paced habitat and start going for agriculture in a big way. So gradually the Bengali Muslims, starting in various low agrarian positions like laborers and tenants, started acquiring even greater quantities of land.
The immigrants tended to be better off than the natives both in the city and the villages. After independence, when education opportunities were systematically expanded, increasing numbers of educated Assamese entered the job market. But they could not counter the Bengali domination. Ethnic and family linkages of Bengalis firmly in hold of the professions in Assam led to a continuing bias in the new recruitments. Anti-Bengali sentiment thus began to rise. Meanwhile, the wave of Muslims from what had become East Pakistan after the partition of 1947 also continued.
The organized student movement in Assam has been fighting with the central government in Delhi over the issue of deportation of ''illegal aliens'' who came after 1961, the point after which the Hindu migration from East Pakistan seems to have ceased and Muslims have mostly migrated. The movement started on an anti-Bengali note, but both operationally and legally Hindu Bengalis from West Bengal could in no way be made to leave; for one, the Indian Constitution allowed freedom of interstate movement, and, two, the Assamese economy was inextricably linked with West Ben-gal.
As opposed to this, the ''post-1947 place of origin'' of the Muslim Bengalis easily made them ''aliens.'' A great number of them had simply filtered through the borders. This fact, for purposes of operational strategy, made them ''illegal aliens'' too. Additionally, they provided unstinted support to the ruling Congress Party and the party in turn started patronizing them, so much so that local politicians of the Congress Party seem to have put them on the electoral rolls in ever greater numbers irrespective of whether or not they had Indian citizenship. Thus the focus of the students' wrath became the Muslim Bengalis, despite the initial general anti-Bengali sentiment.
The central government has agreed in principle that the post-1971 migrants should be deported, but the student leaders insist on 1961 as the mark-off point. If the central government accepts this, it will be faced with the difficult task of persuading the Bangladesh government to take them back or other state governments of India to absorb them.
Should Mrs. Gandhi have called elections in such a situation? What could have been the reasons? She has argued that further extension of the federal rule over the state was constitutionally problematic. Her past political and constitutional record, however, does not indicate that constitutional reasons were absolutely pressing. A more convincing reason seemed to be her need for an election victory, though in the process she completely miscalculated the consequences. Such a miscalculation is perfectly compatible with her style of functioning, consistent in its intolerance of dissent. As a result she does not normally get accurate feedback; she ends up being told what she wants to hear.
However, blaming her directly for the carnage would be a hasty exercise. It is clear that she did not anticipate the level of violence. But given the fact that the electoral rolls were so controversial, for they seemed to contain large numbers of illegal entries objected to by the agitation leaders, it was a mistake to have gone for elections.
What lies ahead?
Until now the Assam problem was primarily an ethnic issue based on the feeling in the native community that it had historically been neglected and left behind. Now the conflict is likely to take on a communal, Hindu-Muslim color too. The political fallout will be greater unmanageability. The new state government after the electoral victory of Mrs. Gandhi's party based on a thin 10 percent electoral turnout will obviously find it difficult to function and there will be a toughening in Mrs. Gandhi's stand vis-a-vis the student leaders, making a solution perhaps all the more difficult.
Inflexibility, however, will create more problems than it can solve. It is time for Mrs. Gandhi's government to work more constructively toward the sensible middle points. Deportation of ''aliens,'' to be sure, is indefensible, morally and politically, but electoral rolls could be practically, more responsibly made and checked. Narrow political calculations should not go into it. If the Assamese could thus be convinced that they would not be politicallym swamped by the alien presence, they would be more tolerant of their generalm presence.
For the long run, a more serious patrolling of the borders, special measures for tribals who remain underdogs, and a clear general understanding of the conditions in which migrants can become citizens and vote are needed. A complete solution acceptable to all is an impossibility but alleviation of the problem is not. New Delhi has to work for it.
"""Uhalifu mkubwa wa uchaguzi katika jimbo la Assam, kaskazini mashariki mwa India, unahitaji ufafanuzi wa kutosha kuliko ulivyotolewa hadi sasa." Hapo awali uhasama katika Assam ulikuwa hasa, ingawa si kabisa, jambo la mijini na tatizo hilo halikuwa tatizo la kawaida la Kihindu na Kiislamu. Lakini mauaji ya Waislamu wa Bengali na watu wa makabila ya Kihindu katika vijiji yanaweza kubadilisha maana ya suala la Assam. Kihistoria, Assam imekuwa na moja ya viwango vya juu zaidi vya uhamiaji nchini India. Wabangali walifanyiza kikundi kikubwa zaidi - wakulima Waislamu kutoka Bengal Mashariki (sasa Bangla-desh), na wataalamu wa mijini wa tabaka la kati, hasa Wahindu, kutoka Bengal Magharibi. Kwa hiyo, watu waliozungumza Kibengali walikuwa Wahindu na Waislamu. Wahindu wa Bengal walikamata taaluma za mijini kwa sababu walikuwa na mwanzo mzuri katika uwanja wa elimu. Kwa upande mwingine, wakulima wa Kiislamu wa Bengal walitoka katika eneo lenye idadi kubwa ya watu lakini uzalishaji wa kilimo mdogo na muundo wa ardhi uliovunjika ambao haukuweza kuunga mkono familia kubwa. Kwa wakulima hao, Assam ilikuwa nchi ya fursa. Maeneo hayo yalikuwa mabichi, na watu wa vijijini wa Assam, ambao pia walikuwa makabila, hawakuwa na kichocheo cha kutosha kuondoka katika mazingira yao ya kitamaduni na ya haraka na kuanza kufanya kilimo kwa njia kubwa. Kwa hivyo hatua kwa hatua Waislamu wa Bengal, wakianza katika nafasi mbalimbali za chini za kilimo kama wafanyakazi na wapangaji, walianza kupata kiasi kikubwa zaidi cha ardhi. Wahamiaji walikuwa na hali nzuri kuliko wenyeji katika majiji na vijiji. Baada ya uhuru, wakati fursa za elimu zilipopanuliwa kwa utaratibu, idadi inayoongezeka ya Wasamasi wenye elimu waliingia sokoni la kazi. Lakini hawakuweza kukabiliana na utawala wa Kibengali. Uhusiano wa kikabila na wa familia wa Wabangali wenye nguvu katika taaluma huko Assam ulisababisha upendeleo unaoendelea katika kuajiri mpya. Hivyo hisia za kupinga Wabengali zikaanza kuongezeka. Wakati huo huo, wimbi la Waislamu kutoka kile kilichokuwa Pakistan Mashariki baada ya mgawanyiko wa 1947 pia liliendelea. "Mashirika ya wanafunzi nchini Assam yamekuwa yakipigana na serikali kuu ya Delhi juu ya suala la kuhamishwa kwa ""wageni haramu"" ambao walikuja baada ya 1961, wakati ambao uhamiaji wa Kihindu kutoka Pakistan Mashariki unaonekana kuwa umekwisha na Waislamu wengi wamehamia." Harakati hiyo ilianza kwa anti-Bengali, lakini wote operesheni na kisheria Wahindu Bengali kutoka Bengal Magharibi hakuweza kwa njia yoyote kufanywa kuondoka; kwa moja, Katiba ya India kuruhusiwa uhuru wa harakati kati ya majimbo, na, mbili, Assam uchumi ilikuwa inextricably kushikamana na Bengali Magharibi. "Kulingana na hili, ""mahali pa asili"" ya Waislamu wa Bengal baada ya 1947 iliwafanya kwa urahisi kuwa ""wageni.""" Idadi kubwa yao walikuwa wamepita tu kupitia mipaka. Ukweli huu, kwa madhumuni ya mkakati wa uendeshaji, uliwafanya kuwa "wageni haramu" pia. "Kwa kuongezea, waliwapa msaada mkubwa chama tawala cha Congress na chama hicho pia kilianza kuwaunga mkono, kwa kiasi kwamba wanasiasa wa ndani wa chama cha Congress wanaonekana kuwaweka kwenye orodha ya wapiga kura kwa idadi kubwa zaidi bila kujali kama walikuwa na uraia wa India au la.""" Hivyo lengo la ghadhabu ya wanafunzi akawa Waislamu Bengali, licha ya awali ya jumla ya kupambana na Bengali hisia. Serikali ya Marekani imekubaliana na kanuni ya kuwafukuza wahamiaji walioingia nchini humo baada ya mwaka 1971, lakini viongozi wa wanafunzi wanasisitiza kwamba mwaka 1961 ndio utakaotumiwa kuwakomesha wahamiaji hao. Serikali ya India ikikubali, itakabiliwa na kazi ngumu ya kuwashawishi serikali ya Bangladesh kuwarudisha au serikali nyingine za jimbo la India kuwakamata. Je, Bi. Gandhi alipaswa kuitisha uchaguzi katika hali kama hiyo? Sababu hizo zingeweza kuwa zipi? Amesema kwamba upanuzi zaidi wa utawala wa shirikisho juu ya jimbo ulikuwa na shida ya kikatiba. Hata hivyo, rekodi yake ya zamani ya kisiasa na ya kikatiba haionyeshi kwamba sababu za kikatiba zilikuwa muhimu sana. Sababu yenye kusadikisha zaidi ilionekana kuwa haja yake ya ushindi wa uchaguzi, ingawa katika mchakato huo alihesabu vibaya kabisa matokeo. Hatua hiyo mbaya inalingana kabisa na mtindo wake wa kufanya kazi, unaopatana na kutovumilia kutounga mkono maoni tofauti. Matokeo ni kwamba kwa kawaida yeye hupata maoni yasiyo sahihi; yeye huishia kuambiwa kile anachotaka kusikia. Hata hivyo, kumlaumu moja kwa moja kwa ajili ya mauaji hayo ya kikatili kungekuwa jambo la haraka. Ni wazi kwamba hakutazamia kiwango cha jeuri. Lakini kwa kuzingatia ukweli kwamba orodha za wapiga kura zilikuwa zenye utata, kwa kuwa zilionekana kuwa na idadi kubwa ya maandishi haramu yaliyopingwa na viongozi wa harakati, ilikuwa ni kosa kwenda kwa uchaguzi. Ni nini kinachokuja? Hadi sasa tatizo la Assam lilikuwa suala la kikabila hasa kulingana na hisia katika jamii ya asili kwamba ilikuwa kimapokeo kupuuzwa na kushoto nyuma. Sasa mgogoro huo unaelekea kuwa na rangi ya kikabila, ya Kihindu na Kiislamu pia. Matokeo ya kisiasa yatakuwa ya kutoweza kudhibitiwa zaidi. Serikali mpya ya jimbo baada ya ushindi wa chama cha Bi.Gandhi, kulingana na asilimia 10 ya kura, itakuwa vigumu kufanya kazi na kutakuwa na ugumu katika msimamo wa Bi.Gandhi dhidi ya viongozi wa wanafunzi, na kufanya suluhisho labda kuwa ngumu zaidi. Hata hivyo, ukosefu wa kubadilika-badilika utasababisha matatizo mengi kuliko yale ambayo yanaweza kutatua. Ni wakati kwa serikali ya Bi Gandhi kufanya kazi kwa njia ya kujenga zaidi kuelekea pointi za kati zenye busara. Uhamisho wa 'wageni,' bila shaka, ni undefensible, kiadili na kisiasa, lakini orodha za wapiga kura inaweza kuwa vitendo, zaidi responsibly kufanywa na kuchunguzwa. Hesabu za kisiasa nyembamba hazipaswi kuingia ndani yake. Kama Assamese hivyo inaweza kuwa na uhakika kwamba wao si kuwa politically kuzamishwa na uwepo wa kigeni, wao itakuwa zaidi ya uvumilivu wa uwepo wao generalm. Kwa muda mrefu, ni muhimu kuwa na ulinzi mkubwa zaidi wa mipaka, hatua maalum kwa ajili ya makabila ambayo bado ni chini, na uelewa wa jumla wa hali ambazo wahamiaji wanaweza kuwa raia na kupiga kura. Suluhisho kamili linalokubalika kwa wote ni jambo lisilowezekana lakini kupunguza tatizo si jambo lisilowezekana. New Delhi inapaswa kufanya kazi kwa ajili yake.