the damage was staggering and the destruction, complete. One of worst cyclones in Pakistan’s history left a trail of death and devastation in the districts of Thatta and Badin in the southern province of Sindh on May 20, 1999. Tidal waves as high as six metres hit many villages in the two districts while the villagers were asleep. The cyclone “2A”, or Hurricane Thuth, travelling at a speed of 273 km per hour, and the accompanying deluge battered the two districts for around 36 hours, destroying around 50,000 houses. Conservative estimates put the number feared dead at around 500, while around 6,000 are reported missing. Government officials, however, say the death toll is below 200.
Across the international boundary, though the cyclone brushed past the Indian state of Gujarat, it claimed more than 300 lives, most of whom were at sea when the cyclone struck.The death count on land was comparatively less, due to timely warnings by the meteorological department, says S R Kalsi, the deputy director general of cyclone warning at the Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi.
The beginningThe killer cyclone took shape in the Arabian Sea with wind speeds of 160-200 km per hour. It changed its course, narrowly missing Gujarat, and vent its fury on the Pakistani coastal towns of Keti Bandar and Shah Bandar. Karachi was spared as the cyclone took an unexpected turn and headed east. “The high-speed winds moving northwards from the sea struck Gujarat earlier than expected but it was Pakistan that was hit harder,” says Kalsi.
“The waves were horrifying and devoured three of my children like a dragon. I tried to save them but I was helpless,” says 30-year-old Mehmant Soomar, of Raj Mallah in Thatta district, trying to come to terms with what had happened. After two nightmarish days, he and his wife were the only survivors from his family and, along with a thousand others, have taken refuge at a relief camp.
The districts of Thatta and Badin were totally inundated. At least 30 per cent of the houses, shops, poultry farms and other structures were completely destroyed and thousands of heads of cattle killed, said the army spokesperson. The people have been reduced to paupers overnight by the cyclone, says a district official.
“More than 164 bodies were recovered from Raj Malik village in the Thatta district alone, some were lying submerged in the mud while others were found in trees,” says Mumtaz Uqali, deputy commissioner of Thatta. Around 450 fisherfolk, who ventured into the sea on that fateful night, are still missing.
The hurricane showed no mercy to “the children of the sea,” as the Sindh fisherfolk refer to themselves. “Hundreds of small to medium boats have been lost,” says Arab Malah, president of the Provincial Fishermen’s Society. “It is too early to assess the damage,” says Naik Mohammad Jokhi, the additional deputy commissioner of Thatta. Communication links with the rest of the country have been cut off.
Over 10,000 Navy and Army personnel have been deployed for relief and rescue measures in the two worst-hit districts. Officials say that relief efforts have covered 80 per cent of the affected areas, though 4,000 villages in the coastal areas are yet to be reached. Around 90 per cent of farmland of these two districts have been totally destroyed, says Maj Gen Khalid Munir who is the general officer commanding of the Hyderabad division. According to Javed Ashraf Hussain, relief commissioner, around 285,000 hectares (ha) of cropped land in Thatta and 115,000 ha in Badin have been affected. Around 23 relief camps have been set up and are accommodating 150,000 villagers. The district administration has dispatched medical teams to the affected areas to prevent epidemics.
According to naval personnel, many people are still marooned in over 100 pockets along the coastline. The priority for the rescuers was to locate the missing and assess the damage, said an army spokesperson. Relief supplies were only possible through air drops, he said.
Moderate rains with gusty winds of up to 50 km per hour were reported from Hyderabad, Dadu, Larkana and southern Punjab. Flash rains and strong winds continued in Punjab and Kashmir for two days after the cyclone. Lahore and Islamabad also experienced rain and high winds. The area has been declared calamity-hit by the Sindh government.
No warnings In Pakistan, where the cyclone was more intense, the villagers denied any knowledge of warnings by the administration. Opposition parties say that the death toll and the damages could have been limited if proper precautionary measures were taken.
However, Moinuddin Haider, governor of Sindh, says that the people were warned but they had refused to evacuate their villages. The deputy commissioners of Thatta and Badin also declared that the residents were alerted to the impending cyclone. However, some army rescuers have criticised the civil administration for not providing adequate relief or quick rescue.
The government has established an emergency relief cell to coordinate arrangements in the affected areas. Relief material that included blankets, medicines, cooking pans, stoves and tents have been provided to all the affected. “The government is doing all it can... but we were not prepared for a calamity of this magnitude,” said Haider.
After visiting the affected areas, Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif announced an amount of 50 million Pakistani rupees for relief work. The administrations of the affected areas had demanded 300 million Pakistani rupees. Political parties have criticised the government for announcing such a pitiful amount. Some have demanded that the government should cancel the anniversary celebrations of the country’s nuclear tests conducted on May 28 last year and, instead, divert the money to relief operations in the coastal areas.
Across the border The scene is no better in India even though the storm merely brushed Kutch district of Gujarat. Besides causing massive damage in the coastal areas of Kutch, it left more than 300 people dead. Many of the victims were fisherfolk who had ventured into Saurastra before the cyclone struck. The Coast Guard and the Navy are still searching for more victims. An estimated 30,000 heads of cattle are reported to have been killed.
Suresh Mehta, the state industry minister, claims that there were no human casualties on land due to prompt action taken by the government in evacuating people. Around 50,000 people are said to have been evacuated from all over Gujarat and 20,000 from Kutch.
“This cyclone was more intense than the Kandla cyclone which killed more than 2,000 people in 1998. However, on this occasion the Gujarat government was prepared and managed to avert any severe damage,” says Kalsi. “Though the brunt of the cyclone was borne by Kutch, it did not strike the mainland with expected severity.” The authorities had alerted villagers living in low-lying areas along the coast and instructed them to leave for safer places.
Gujarat has recorded only eight cyclones in the last 25 years, and this was one of the severest. "Though the Kandla cyclone was milder, it claimed more lives because of poor communications," says Kalsi.
The troubled Third World
The year 1998-99 has witnessed a fair amount of natural disasters. Cyclones, twisters, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and landslides. But the question most people are asking is why do the Third World countries have more human casualties than the developed world? Though developed countries suffer higher economic loss at the time of a natural disaster, it is often the poorer countries around the world that have more human casualties. According to Red Cross" World Disasters Report 1998, one reason could be inadequate human attention to disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness. Other possible reasons mentioned are poor infrastructure, services and construction of buildings, and lack of early warning systems.
Kalsi also says that geographical location has a role to play in the magnitude of destruction in many countries. He says many south Asian countries have flat terrain where the storm finds no obstacles which leaves the people to bear its full fury. For instance, the geographic location of Bangladesh is such that almost every year it faces the problem of floods. Another problem in developing countries is population which most often exceeds the number that can be sustained by its economy. However, Kalsi says the remote sensing in these areas are not to blame because "most of the developing countries have good remote sensing systems, and proper warnings are also given. But he feels "the problem is that most remote villages in poor countries often miss the warning".
Another reason for the high death rate among developing countries is the mismanagement on the part of the officials dealing with relief operations, says Baleshwar Thakur, professor and head of department in Delhi University.
Unlike developed countries, India lacks the facilities to counter disasters. "India and Pakistan have good remote sensing satellites, but communication is the main problem. "There is no proper interaction with the rural people who are most often the victims," says R Jayakumar, programme assistant at unesco in New Delhi. Besides proper rescue facilities, deve-loped countries are able to interact and comm-unicate better with the public, so that people can be evacuated well in time.
|NUMBER OF PEOPLE KILLED
|NUMBER OF PEOPLE KILLED
|Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 1998, World Disasters Report 1998, Oxford University Press, New York
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uharibifu ulikuwa mkubwa sana na uharibifu, kamili. Kimbunga cha Pakistan kilichotokea tarehe 20 Mei 1999 kilisababisha mauaji na uharibifu mkubwa katika wilaya za Thatta na Badin, katika jimbo la Sindh kusini mwa Pakistan. Mawimbi ya mawimbi ya urefu wa mita sita yalipiga vijiji vingi katika wilaya hizo mbili wakati wakazi wa vijiji walikuwa wamelala. Kimbunga cha <unk>2A<unk>, au Kimbunga Thuthu, kilichokuwa na mwendo wa kilomita 273 kwa saa, na mafuriko yaliyokuwa yakiandamana nayo yaliathiri wilaya hizo mbili kwa muda wa saa 36 na kuharibu nyumba 50,000 hivi. Takwimu za makadirio ya kihafidhina zinasema idadi ya waliokufa ni karibu 500, wakati karibu 6,000 wanaripotiwa kutoweka. Hata hivyo, maafisa wa serikali wanasema idadi ya waliokufa ni chini ya 200. "Hata hivyo, kwa mujibu wa taarifa za shirika la India Meteorological Department, ""kiwango cha vifo vilivyofikia nchi kavu kilikuwa kidogo kwa sababu ya maonyo ya wakati wa dhoruba,"" alisema S.R. Kalsi, naibu mkurugenzi mkuu wa tahadhari ya dhoruba katika Idara ya Utabiri wa Hali ya Hewa ya India, New Delhi." Kimbunga hicho kilitokea katika Bahari ya Arabia na upepo ulikuwa unaelekea kwa kasi ya kilomita 160 hadi 200 kwa saa. Mlipuko huo ulibadilika na kuangukia Gujarat na kuenea kwenye miji ya pwani ya Pakistan ya Keti Bandar na Shah Bandar. Karachi iliondolewa wakati kimbunga hicho kilipobadilika bila kutarajiwa na kuelekea mashariki. "Upepo wa kasi unaosonga kaskazini kutoka baharini uligonga Gujarat mapema kuliko ilivyotarajiwa lakini ilikuwa Pakistan iliyogongwa vikali zaidi", anasema Kalsi. <unk> Mawimbi yalikuwa yenye kuogopesha na yaliteketeza watoto wangu watatu kama joka. """Nilijaribu kuwaokoa lakini sikuwa na uwezo,"" anasema Mehmant Soomar, mwenye umri wa miaka 30 kutoka Raj Mallah katika wilaya ya Thatta, akijaribu kukubali kile kilichotokea." Baada ya siku mbili za kutisha, yeye na mkewe ndio waliosalia tu katika familia yao na pamoja na wengine elfu moja wamekimbilia katika kambi ya misaada. Wilaya za Thatta na Badin zilijaa maji kabisa. "Kama ilivyotangazwa na msemaji wa jeshi, ""angalau asilimia 30 ya nyumba, maduka, mashamba ya kuku na miundo mingine iliharibiwa kabisa na maelfu ya ng'ombe waliuawa.""" Maafisa wa wilaya wanasema kwamba watu hao wamekuwa maskini kwa sababu ya kimbunga hicho. "Mwili wa watu zaidi ya 164 umepatikana katika kijiji cha Raj Malik katika wilaya ya Thatta, baadhi yao walikuwa wamezama ndani ya matope wakati wengine walipatikana kwenye miti,"" alisema Kamishna wa Thatta, Mumtaz Uqali." Wavuvi 450 walioshambulia bahari hiyo usiku huo wa mwisho bado hawajulikani. Kimbunga hicho hakikuwa na huruma kwa "watoto wa bahari", kama wavuvi wa Sindh wanavyojiita. "Mashariki mwa Afrika kuna uvuvi wa aina ya pwani na pwani ya kati,"" alisema Arab Malakh, rais wa shirika la wavuvi wa mkoa huo." "Ni mapema sana kutathmini uharibifu", anasema Naik Mohammad Jokhi, kamishna msaidizi wa ziada wa Thatta. Mawasiliano na sehemu nyingine za nchi yamekatwa. Zaidi ya wanajeshi 10,000 wa jeshi la wanamaji na jeshi la majini wametumwa kwa ajili ya misaada na uokoaji katika wilaya mbili zilizoharibiwa zaidi. Maafisa wanasema kuwa misaada imefikia asilimia 80 ya maeneo yaliyoathiriwa, ingawa vijiji 4,000 katika maeneo ya pwani bado havijafikia. "Kama ilivyoelezwa, karibu asilimia 90 ya mashamba ya wilaya hizo mbili yameharibiwa kabisa,"" alisema Kamanda Mkuu Khalid Munir, ambaye ni afisa mkuu wa Idara ya Hyderabad." Kamishna wa misaada, Javed Ashraf Hussain, amesema takriban hekta 285,000 za mashamba ya Thatta na hekta 115,000 za shamba la Badin zimeharibiwa. Makambi 23 ya misaada yamejengwa na kuwapa makazi watu 150,000 wa kijiji hicho. Utawala wa wilaya umetuma timu za matibabu katika maeneo yaliyoathiriwa ili kuzuia magonjwa ya kuambukiza. Kwa mujibu wa maafisa wa jeshi la wanamaji, watu wengi bado wamekwama katika maeneo zaidi ya 100 kando ya pwani. """Kipaumbele cha waokoaji ni kuwapata waliopotea na kutathmini uharibifu,"" alisema msemaji wa jeshi." Vifaa vya misaada viliwezekana tu kupitia kuruka kwa ndege, alisema. Mvua ya wastani na upepo wenye kasi ya kilomita 50 kwa saa uliripotiwa kutoka Hyderabad, Dadu, Larkana na kusini mwa Punjab. Mvua ya ghafla na upepo mkali uliendelea katika Punjab na Kashmir kwa siku mbili baada ya kimbunga hicho. Lahore na Islamabad pia zilipata mvua na upepo mkali. Eneo hilo limetangazwa kuwa limekumbwa na msiba na serikali ya Sindh. Katika eneo la Pakistan, ambapo kimbunga hicho kilikuwa kikikua kikikua kikikua kikikua, wakazi wa kijiji hicho walikataa kuwa na habari yoyote ya onyo la serikali. Vyama vya upinzani vinasema idadi ya vifo na uharibifu ungeweza kupunguzwa ikiwa hatua sahihi za tahadhari zingechukuliwa. Gavana wa Sindh, Moinuddin Haider, amesema kuwa watu hao walipewa onyo lakini walikataa kuondoka katika vijiji vyao. Makamishna wa Thatta na Badin pia walitangaza kwamba wakazi walikuwa wameonywa kuhusu kimbunga kilichokuwa kikikaribia. Hata hivyo, baadhi ya waokoaji wa jeshi wamekosoa utawala wa kiraia kwa kutotoa misaada ya kutosha au uokoaji wa haraka. Serikali imeanzisha kitengo cha misaada ya dharura ili kuratibu mipango katika maeneo yaliyoathiriwa. Vifaa vya misaada ambavyo vilitia ndani blanketi, dawa, sufuria za kupikia, jiko na mahema vimetolewa kwa wote walioathiriwa. "Serikali inafanya yote inayoweza... lakini hatukuandaa kwa msiba wa ukubwa huu", alisema Haider. Baada ya kutembelea maeneo yaliyoathiriwa, Waziri Mkuu wa Pakistan Nawaz Sharif alitangaza kiasi cha Rupi milioni 50 kwa ajili ya kazi ya misaada. Serikali ya eneo hilo ilidai fedha za Pakistan milioni 300. Vyama vya siasa vimekosoa serikali kwa kutangaza kiasi hicho cha kusikitisha. Baadhi ya waandishi wa habari wamedai serikali ifanye marufuku sherehe za maadhimisho ya majaribio ya nyuklia yaliyofanywa nchini humo tarehe 28 Mei mwaka jana na badala yake itumie fedha hizo katika shughuli za kutoa misaada katika maeneo ya pwani. Hali hiyo haikuwa nzuri nchini India, ingawa dhoruba hiyo ilikumba tu wilaya ya Kutch ya Gujarat. Mlipuko huo ulisababisha uharibifu mkubwa katika maeneo ya pwani ya Kutch na kuua watu zaidi ya 300. Wengi wa waathirika walikuwa wavuvi ambao walikuwa wameingia Saurastra kabla ya kimbunga hicho kugonga. Walinzi wa Pwani na Jeshi la Wanamaji bado wanatafuta wahasiriwa wengine. Inakadiriwa kwamba ng'ombe 30,000 waliuawa. Waziri wa Viwanda wa jimbo hilo Suresh Mehta amesema hakuna watu waliouawa katika tukio hilo kutokana na hatua za haraka zilizochukuliwa na serikali kuwahamisha watu. Watu 50,000 wamehamishwa kutoka Gujarat na 20,000 kutoka Kutch. Kimbunga hicho kilikuwa kikubwa kuliko kile kilichotokea mwaka 1998 wakati wa kimbunga cha Kandla, ambacho kilisababisha vifo vya watu zaidi ya 2,000. Hata hivyo, katika tukio hili serikali ya Gujarat ilikuwa tayari na imeweza kuzuia uharibifu wowote mkubwa, "anasema Kalsi. "Hata ingawa pigo kubwa la kimbunga hicho lilipigwa na Kutch, halikuathiri bara kwa kiwango kilichotarajiwa. " Mamlaka zilikuwa zimewaonya wakazi wa vijiji vilivyo katika maeneo ya chini kando ya pwani na kuwaagiza waondoke na kwenda mahali salama. " Gujarat imerekodi tu vimbunga nane katika miaka 25 iliyopita, na hii ilikuwa moja ya kali zaidi. "Ijapokuwa kimbunga cha Kandla kilikuwa kidogo, kilisababisha vifo vingi zaidi kwa sababu ya mawasiliano mabaya", asema Kalsi. Mwaka 1998-1999 umekuwa na misiba mingi ya asili. Dhoruba, vimbunga, vimbunga, mafuriko, matetemeko ya ardhi na maporomoko ya ardhi. Lakini swali ambalo watu wengi wanauliza ni kwa nini nchi za Ulimwengu wa Tatu zina majeruhi zaidi ya nchi zilizoendelea? Ingawa nchi zilizoendelea hupata hasara kubwa zaidi za kiuchumi wakati wa msiba wa asili, mara nyingi ni nchi maskini zaidi ulimwenguni kote ambazo zina majeruhi wengi wa kibinadamu. "Kulingana na ripoti ya Msalaba Mwekundu ya 1998 ya ""Mashambulizi ya Ulimwengu,"" sababu moja inaweza kuwa ""ukosefu wa uangalifu wa binadamu kwa kuzuia, kupunguza na kujitayarisha kwa misiba.""" Sababu nyingine zinazowezekana zilizotajwa ni miundombinu duni, huduma na ujenzi wa majengo, na ukosefu wa mifumo ya onyo la mapema. "Kalsi anasema pia kwamba ""mahali pa kijiografia ni muhimu katika kuathiri kiwango cha uharibifu katika nchi nyingi.""" "Mataifa mengi ya Asia Kusini yana maeneo tambarare ambapo dhoruba haipati vikwazo, na hivyo watu wanakabiliwa na ""ukali wake kamili.""" Kwa mfano, eneo la kijiografia la Bangladesh ni kama kwamba karibu kila mwaka inakabiliwa na tatizo la mafuriko. Tatizo jingine katika nchi zinazoendelea ni idadi ya watu ambao mara nyingi huzidi idadi ambayo inaweza kudumishwa na uchumi wake. Hata hivyo, Kalsi anasema utambuzi wa mbali katika maeneo haya si wa kulaumiwa kwa sababu "nchi nyingi zinazoendelea zina mifumo nzuri ya utambuzi wa mbali, na maonyo sahihi pia hutolewa. Lakini anafikiri kwamba "tatizo ni kwamba mara nyingi vijiji vya mbali zaidi katika nchi maskini hupuuza onyo hilo". "Kama matokeo ya utafiti huo, idadi ya watu wanaokufa katika nchi zinazoendelea imepungua kwa asilimia kubwa, ""alisema Baleshwar Thakur, profesa na mkuu wa idara katika Chuo Kikuu cha Delhi." Tofauti na nchi zilizoendelea, India haina vifaa vya kukabiliana na misiba. "India na Pakistan zina satelaiti nzuri za uchunguzi wa mbali, lakini mawasiliano ndiyo tatizo kuu. "Hakuna mawasiliano sahihi na watu wa vijijini ambao mara nyingi ni waathirika, "R Jayakumar, msaidizi wa programu ya UNESCO huko New Delhi anasema." Mbali na vifaa vya kuokoa sahihi, nchi zilizoendelea zina uwezo wa kuingiliana na kuwasiliana vizuri na umma, ili watu waweze kuhamishwa kwa wakati. "Kulingana na ripoti ya International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) ya mwaka 1998, ripoti ya ""Deni kwa ajili ya hali ya hewa Afrika Kusini: Ripoti ya Biashara na Maendeleo: Kutoka kwa janga la janga hadi ustawi kwa wote: Miongo mingine iliyopotea - Kuepuka joto la dunia la 1.5 ° C."""