No, WaPo, local weather change is NOT resulting in extra devastating rains and floods. Do you agree?
Originally published by ClimateREALISM
A June 26 Washington Post (WaPo) article entitled “The Places in the United States Hardest Hit by Extreme Rainfall” makes this claim in the subtitle: “New data from the nonprofit First Street Foundation shows that climate change leading to even more devastating rainfall.” Flooding in parts of the country.” The claim is completely misleading as it is based on a model and there are factors related to precipitation patterns and measurements that have not been taken into account.
In the article, WaPo cites a climate protection group, First Street, as the source of the claim:
But this area and others across the country are seeing such devastating rainfall become more frequent as the world warms, according to new data released Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation.
In a new peer-reviewed model, the group explains that the current US government estimates of precipitation rates, which are considered the authoritative source for nationwide planning and infrastructure design, do not fully capture the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events in a changing climate. What is now considered a “1-in-100-year storm”—in short, an event with a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year—is already happening more frequently in some places.
Taking the study with a grain of salt from even the nonprofit First Street Foundation, which has published climate alert predictions in the past, the claim is based on a model output result rather than actual measurements, using humidity-related input data with a short history. These two factors lead to a misleading result.
There are some interesting patterns in the map provided for the WaPo article (see image below):
Figure: Estimation of precipitation rates per hour for extreme precipitation. Source, First Street.
Note that the most intense areas are coastlines, such as the Gulf Coast, East Coast, and parts of the West Coast. This is not surprising as these are areas near oceans with the greatest amount of available precipitation water.
In fact, this map doesn’t really differ from the 30-year precipitation climatology for the contiguous United States, with the exception of the Houston region. This Houston Anomaly can be explained by a single storm: Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2005, bringing more than 40 inches of rain to the Houston area. According to Climate.gov:
The highest rainfall was 48.20 inches on a rain gauge at Clear Creek and I-45 near Houston, Texas. It was the heaviest rainfall recorded in a single storm at any location in mainland America.
As we know from Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes, there is no observed climate change signal in the number of hurricanes. Even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agrees, finding no increase in the frequency or severity of hurricanes. Even the one-time heavy rains in Houston caused by Hurricane Harvey cannot be linked to climate change.
So where are WaPo and First Street attributing the increase in precipitation levels in the rest of the country? Airports and short term dates. In the summary of the study, First Street says:
The NOAA atlases have provided the standard estimates for precipitation frequency (PFEs) in the United States for over two decades, but are losing that status due to climate change. This study evaluates the atlases against new PFEs developed using the Automated Surface Observing System and Regional Frequency Analysis (ASOS-RFA) benchmark.
For those who don’t know, the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) is an observing system managed jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) designed to monitor airport runways, not climate change became. Some, but not all, ASOS systems record precipitation observed at airports. This is the precipitation data that First Street fed into their model.
There are two issues with using ASOS data. First, another 2011 peer-reviewed study (not cited in First Street’s study) found that the airport environment tended to provide higher precipitation readings:
Researchers have found that areas near commercial airports sometimes experience a small but measurable increase in rain and snow when planes take off and land under certain atmospheric conditions.
“It seems to be a fairly common effect that airplanes inadvertently cause a measurable amount of rain or snow when flying through certain clouds,” says Heymsfield. “That’s not necessarily enough precipitation to affect global climate, but it’s noticeable around major mid-latitude airports.”
The combination of aircraft exhaust gases (soot), which act as condensation nuclei, and turbulence and atmospheric mixing from aircraft appears to be sufficient to produce a clouding effect that leads to more precipitation at the airport.
Therefore, the airport ASOS data First Street used in their model was more highly biased from the start. And as the trend in the number of commercial airport flights has steadily increased over the past two decades, it is safe to assume that the impact on precipitation around airports has also increased. First Street and WaPo didn’t take that into account.
In addition, the length of the precipitation records is questionable. According to NOAA’s ASOS User Guide, ASOS was not implemented until the 1990s, meaning there are only about 30 years (possibly less) of precipitation data to examine. Additionally, the other data source used in the study, Atlas 14, was only created about a decade ago, according to the study itself:
That means some data from Atlas 14 may even be less than a decade old. However, long-term precipitation data for the US shows that rainfall has been increasing naturally for a long time, as shown in the figure below, something First Street failed to mention. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says:
On average, total annual precipitation over land areas has increased in the United States and worldwide. Since 1901, global precipitation has increased by an average of 0.04 inches per decade, while precipitation in the contiguous 48 states has increased by 0.20 inches per decade.
Finally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 report, Chapter 11, Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climateconcludes that changes in the frequency and intensity of most severe weather events (with associated heavy rainfall) have not been detected and are not attributable to human-caused climate change.
First Street really didn’t discover anything new, but they used biased and short-term data to make a claim unsupported by any other climate science.
All in all, First Street did a poor job scientifically, ignoring older data in favor of data that gave them the result they wanted. Apparently lacking the skills to critically examine First Street’s claims, WaPo authors Kevin Crowe, John Muyskens and Brady Dennis published their claims as if they were fact without any critical examination whatsoever. WaPo has done shameful journalism and tricked its readers into thinking something that just isn’t true.
Anthony Watts is a Senior Fellow in Environment and Climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both on and off camera as an on-air meteorologist since 1978 and currently makes daily radio forecasts. He has developed weather graphic presentation systems for television and dedicated weather instruments, and is a co-author of peer-reviewed articles on climate issues. He runs the world’s most viewed climate website, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Hapana, WaPo, mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ya ndani hayasababishi mvua na mafuriko ya ziada yenye kuharibu. Je, unakubaliana na hilo? "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika makala ya Washington Post ya Juni 26 yenye kichwa ""Maeneo katika Marekani yaliyoathiriwa sana na Mvua ya Mvua"" na ""Data mpya kutoka kwa First Street Foundation ya faida ya faida inaonyesha kwamba mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanasababisha mvua mbaya zaidi, mafuriko katika sehemu za nchi.""" "Wapo waandishi wa habari katika eneo la First Street, ambao wanadai kuwa ""mvua ya mvua ya joto"" ni moja ya sababu za kutokuwa na mvua ya joto duniani, kulingana na takwimu zilizotolewa na shirika lisilo la faida la First Street Foundation." Katika mfano mpya wa ukaguzi wa wenzao, kikundi hicho kinaelezea kwamba makadirio ya sasa ya serikali ya Marekani ya viwango vya mvua, ambayo yanachukuliwa kuwa chanzo cha mamlaka kwa mipango ya kitaifa na muundo wa miundombinu, haifanyi kikamilifu mzunguko na ukali wa matukio ya mvua kali katika hali ya hewa inayobadilika. "Kile ambacho sasa kinachukuliwa kuwa ""dhoruba ya kila miaka 100"" - kwa kifupi, tukio lenye uwezekano wa 1% kutokea katika mwaka wowote - tayari linatokea mara nyingi zaidi katika maeneo fulani." Kwa kuzingatia utafiti huo na chembe ya chumvi kutoka kwa hata shirika lisilo la faida la First Street Foundation, ambalo limechapisha utabiri wa tahadhari ya hali ya hewa katika siku za nyuma, madai hayo yanategemea matokeo ya pato la mfano badala ya vipimo halisi, kwa kutumia data ya pembejeo inayohusiana na unyevu na historia fupi. Mambo hayo mawili husababisha matokeo yenye kupotosha. Picha ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini ya picha ya chini. Chanzo, Barabara ya Kwanza. Kumbuka kwamba maeneo yenye msukosuko mkubwa zaidi ni pwani, kama vile Pwani ya Ghuba, Pwani ya Mashariki, na sehemu za Pwani ya Magharibi. Hilo halishangazi kwa kuwa hizo ni maeneo yaliyo karibu na bahari yenye kiasi kikubwa zaidi cha maji ya mvua. Kwa kweli, ramani hii haitofautiani sana na hali ya hewa ya mvua ya miaka 30 kwa Marekani ya karibu, isipokuwa eneo la Houston. Mvua ya Houston ni ya kwanza kutokea katika eneo la Houston tangu mwaka 2005 wakati wa kimbunga Harvey, ambacho kilileta mvua ya zaidi ya sentimeta 40 katika eneo la Houston. Kwa mujibu wa Climate.gov, mvua ya juu zaidi ilikuwa inchi 48.20 kwenye kipimo cha mvua huko Clear Creek na I-45 karibu na Houston, Texas. Ilikuwa mvua kubwa zaidi iliyorekodiwa katika dhoruba moja katika eneo lolote la Amerika ya bara. "Kama tunavyojua kutoka kwa ""Mkondo wa hali ya hewa: Kimbunga,"" hakuna ishara ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa katika idadi ya vimbunga." Hata Baraza la Umoja wa Mataifa la Mabadiliko ya Hali ya Hewa linakubaliana na hilo, likigundua kwamba hakuna ongezeko la mzunguko au ukali wa vimbunga. Hata mvua kubwa ya wakati mmoja huko Houston iliyosababishwa na Kimbunga Harvey haiwezi kuhusishwa na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Kwa hiyo, ni wapi ambapo WaPo na First Street wanahusianisha ongezeko la viwango vya mvua katika nchi nzima? Uwanja wa ndege na tarehe za muda mfupi. "Katika muhtasari wa utafiti huo, First Street inasema: ""Atlas za NOAA zimetoa makadirio ya kawaida ya mzunguko wa mvua nchini Marekani kwa zaidi ya miongo miwili, lakini zinapoteza hadhi hiyo kwa sababu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa." Kwa mfano, katika utafiti wa hivi karibuni, Atlas ya PFE ilitumiwa kwa ajili ya kutathmini ya kiwango cha juu cha frequency ya eneo (ASOS-RFA). Mfumo wa Automated Surface Observation (ASOS) ni mfumo wa uchunguzi unaosimamiwa kwa pamoja na Shirika la Kitaifa la Bahari na Anga (NOAA) na Shirika la Shirika la Ndege la Shirikisho (FAA) iliyoundwa kufuatilia njia za ndege za ndege. Baadhi, lakini si zote, mifumo ya ASOS rekodi mvua aliona katika viwanja vya ndege. Hii ni data ya mvua ambayo First Street iliingiza katika mfano wao. Kuna mambo mawili muhimu katika kutumia data ya ASOS. Utafiti wa mwaka 2011 uliofanywa na wataalamu wa hali ya hewa uligundua kuwa maeneo ya karibu na viwanja vya ndege vya kibiashara wakati mwingine hupata ongezeko dogo lakini linaloweza kupimwa la mvua na theluji wakati ndege zinaondoka na kutua chini ya hali fulani za anga. "Inaonekana ni athari ya kawaida sana kwamba ndege bila kukusudia husababisha kiasi kikubwa cha mvua au theluji wakati wa kuruka kupitia mawingu fulani", anasema Heymsfield. "Hiyo si lazima mvua ya kutosha kuathiri hali ya hewa ya dunia, lakini ni noticeable karibu kubwa kati ya latitude viwanja vya ndege. ""Mchanganyiko wa ndege kutolea nje gesi (soot), ambayo kutenda kama nyuklia condensation, na turbulence na mchanganyiko wa anga kutoka ndege inaonekana kuwa ya kutosha kuzalisha athari cloudiness kwamba inaongoza kwa mvua zaidi katika uwanja wa ndege." Kwa hiyo, data ya uwanja wa ndege ASOS First Street kutumika katika mfano wao ilikuwa zaidi sana bias tangu mwanzo. Kwa kuwa idadi ya ndege za kibiashara zimekuwa zikiongezeka kwa kasi katika miongo miwili iliyopita, ni salama kudhani kuwa athari za mvua karibu na viwanja vya ndege pia zimeongezeka. First Street na WaPo hawakuhesabu hilo. Kwa kuongezea, urefu wa rekodi za mvua ni wenye kutiliwa shaka. Kulingana na Mwongozo wa Mtumiaji wa ASOS wa NOAA, ASOS haikutumiwa hadi miaka ya 1990, ikimaanisha kuna miaka 30 tu (labda chini) ya data ya mvua ya kuchunguza. Kwa kuongezea, chanzo kingine cha data kilichotumiwa katika utafiti huo, Atlas 14, kiliundwa tu karibu muongo mmoja uliopita, kulingana na utafiti huo: Hiyo inamaanisha baadhi ya data kutoka Atlas 14 inaweza hata kuwa chini ya miaka kumi ya zamani. Hata hivyo, takwimu za muda mrefu za mvua kwa Marekani zinaonyesha kwamba mvua imekuwa ikiongezeka kwa kawaida kwa muda mrefu, kama inavyoonyeshwa katika takwimu hapa chini, kitu ambacho First Street ilishindwa kutaja. Shirika la Ulinzi wa Mazingira la Marekani (EPA) limesema: Kwa wastani, kiasi cha mvua zinazopiga kila mwaka katika maeneo ya nchi kavu kimekuwa kikiongezeka nchini Marekani na ulimwenguni pote. Tangu mwaka 1901, mvua duniani kote imeongezeka kwa wastani wa inchi 0.04 kwa muongo mmoja, wakati mvua katika majimbo 48 ya Marekani imeongezeka kwa inchi 0.20 kwa muongo mmoja. "Mapendekezo ya IPCC katika ripoti yake ya AR6 ""Mashambulizi ya hali ya hewa na hali ya hewa katika hali ya hewa inayobadilika"" yanaonyesha kuwa mabadiliko katika mzunguko na nguvu ya matukio ya hali ya hewa kali zaidi (na mvua kubwa inayohusiana) hayajatambuliwa na hayawezi kuhusishwa na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ya binadamu." First Street kweli hakuvumbua kitu chochote kipya, lakini walitumia data ya upendeleo na ya muda mfupi kufanya madai ambayo hayakutegemezwa na sayansi nyingine yoyote ya hali ya hewa. Kwa ujumla, First Street alifanya kazi mbaya kisayansi, kupuuza data ya zamani kwa niaba ya data ambayo iliwapa matokeo waliyotaka. Kwa kuwa hawajaweza kuchunguza kwa makini madai ya First Street, waandishi wa WaPo Kevin Crowe, John Muyskins na Brady Dennis walichapisha madai yao kama kwamba yalikuwa ukweli bila uchunguzi wowote. WaPo imefanya uandishi wa habari wenye aibu na kuwadanganya wasomaji wake kufikiri kitu ambacho sio kweli. Anthony Watts ni Mshiriki Mkuu katika Mazingira na Hali ya Hewa katika Taasisi ya Heartland. Watts amekuwa katika biashara ya hali ya hewa ndani na nje ya kamera kama meteorologist juu ya hewa tangu 1978 na kwa sasa hufanya utabiri wa redio kila siku. Yeye amebuni mifumo ya uwasilishaji wa picha ya hali ya hewa kwa ajili ya televisheni na vyombo maalum vya hali ya hewa, na ni mwandishi mwenza wa makala zilizochunguzwa na wenzao juu ya masuala ya hali ya hewa. Yeye anaendesha tovuti ya hali ya hewa inayotazwa zaidi ulimwenguni, tovuti iliyoshinda tuzo wattsupwiththat.com.