On Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its latest, highly anticipated report on the state of Earth’s climate. The report, which updates the previous effort from eight years ago, represents the collective assessment by several hundred scientists from around the world of efforts to keep global temperatures from rising to levels that would trigger catastrophic changes in Earth’s environment and weather conditions. Spoiler alert: It’s bad.
The report rules out any possibility of preventing the 1.5-degrees-Celsius rise in global temperatures that was the most ambitious target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. That threshold will be reached by 2040, no matter what mitigation efforts are adopted now. Some of the changes in climate and weather patterns currently on display will be irreversible. And while it will certainly make no difference to climate change deniers, the report states that the “unequivocal” cause of the rise in global temperatures is human activity, compared to the 2013 report’s “near certainty” of human causality.
But while the report makes for grim reading, it also offers some hope, however bare. In a best-case scenario, the rise in temperatures will level off at 1.5 degrees C, avoiding the most extreme effects of global warming. That would require a successful planetary effort that reaches “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050, while also removing significant amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
Jumanne, Jopo la Kati la Serikali juu ya Mabadiliko ya Hali ya Hewa (IPCC) lilitoa ripoti yake ya hivi karibuni ya hali ya hali ya hewa duniani. Ripoti hiyo, ambayo inatoa taarifa mpya juu ya juhudi zilizofanywa miaka minane iliyopita, inawakilisha tathmini ya pamoja ya wanasayansi mia kadhaa kutoka duniani kote ya juhudi za kuzuia joto la dunia kutoka kuongezeka hadi viwango ambavyo vitasababisha mabadiliko makubwa katika mazingira ya Dunia na hali ya hewa. Alert spoiler: Ni mbaya. Ripoti hiyo imesema kuwa hakuna uwezekano wa kuzuia ongezeko la joto la dunia la nyuklia 1.5C, ambalo lilikuwa lengo la kutamani zaidi lililowekwa na Mkataba wa Paris mwaka 2015. Kiwango hicho kitapatikana kufikia mwaka 2040, bila kujali juhudi za kupunguza hatari zinazofanywa sasa. Mabadiliko fulani katika hali ya hewa na hali ya hewa ambayo sasa yanaonekana yatakuwa ya kudumu. "Hata hivyo, ripoti hiyo imesema ""sababishi la wazi la ongezeko la joto duniani ni shughuli za binadamu, ikilinganishwa na ripoti ya 2013 ambayo ina uhakika wa sababu za binadamu.""" Lakini ingawa ripoti hiyo ni yenye kuhuzunisha, pia inatoa tumaini fulani, ingawa ni tupu. Katika hali bora, ongezeko la joto litakuwa 1.5 ° C, kuepuka athari mbaya zaidi za ongezeko la joto duniani. "Hiyo itahitaji juhudi ya mafanikio ya sayari ambayo inafikia ""net zero"" uzalishaji wa kaboni ifikapo mwaka 2050, wakati pia kuondoa kiasi kikubwa cha gesi za chafu kutoka angahewa."