The world's top agriculture body has presented a blueprint for how to get livestock emissions down at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) says cutting methane burped by animals like cows and sheep is "essential to limit the global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, preferably less than 1.5 degrees Celsius."
The global food body cites research saying methane from cows and sheep must fall 11-30 percent in 2030 off 2010 levels, to keep the planet inside safer heat levels, limiting damage to human health and farming conditions.
New Zealand's overall target for cutting methane is 10 percent, which is likely to be met by combining a slightly less-than-10 percent reduction to livestock gas with higher-than-10 per cent cut to landfill methane.
The FAO's report, released on Friday night New Zealand time, revised down its previous estimates of global heating from animal products to 12 percent of total human climate impact.
It warned against purely focussing on producing animal protein more efficiently, at the expense of focussing on herd sizes, in the quest to get emissions down. Companies such as Fonterra and Westpac have efficiency-only targets for cutting farming emissions (meaning targets per unit of product, not absolute cuts to total climate impact). However analysts have said that if herd numbers keep falling slightly, they will result in overall greenhouse gas decreases.
On the flipside, the FAO report warns that if production increases and livestock expansion outweigh any efficiency gains, emissions will not fall enough to safeguard the climate, it concludes.
The reports highlights the large regional divide between poor nations including many in Africa (which have fewer livestock but much higher emissions per animal, because of less efficient systems) and richer nations including those in the Americas and Europe (which often have higher overall livestock numbers and higher overall emissions, despite their greater efficiency). Asia is creating rising demand as incomes increase.
Richer nations tend to eat vastly more animal products per person, whereas people in some countries are not getting enough nutrition overall and are likely to increase their animal product consumption between now and 2050, the report projects.
The report also highlights the stark difference between the climate impacts of beef and lamb versus other animal foods such as milk, chicken, eggs and pork. Cattle account for 62 percent of the climate impact of all food animals, with beef and lamb meat dwarfing eggs, chicken, pork and milk on a per kilo basis.
The FAO concluded it is critical to get livestock emissions down to protect people and farms from worsening extreme climate damage.
But achieving the cuts needed would require contributions from a whole list of changes, with no one measure making a majority of the difference.
The report lists efficiency gains as one of the biggest potential improvements, along with human dietary changes (mainly in well-off countries), genetic breeding of lower-methane animals, tweaking animal feed, using methane-cutting feed supplements (at this point these are mainly suitable for feedlot or barn-raised animals) and reducing food waste.
Although the report says there is significant scope to make farming more efficient, especially but not only in poorer countries, it warns animal welfare and environmental health should not be sacrificed for more intensive farming.
By the numbers:
- 12%: Share of human emissions created by producing animal protein in 2015
- 62%: Share of those emissions produced by cattle
- 15%: Share from pigs
- 9%: Share from chickens
- 67%: Share of animal protein emissions from producing meat
- 30%: Share from milk
- 3%: Share from eggs
Mkutano wa kilimo wa COP28 uliopangwa kufanyika Dubai, ulionyesha mpango wa jinsi ya kupunguza uzalishaji wa gesi kutoka kwa mifugo. Shirika la Chakula na Kilimo la Umoja wa Mataifa (FAO) limesema kupunguza gesi ya methane inayotokana na wanyama kama ng'ombe na kondoo ni muhimu ili kupunguza ongezeko la joto duniani hadi chini ya digrii mbili, ikiwezekana chini ya 1.5 Celsius. Kwa mujibu wa utafiti uliofanywa na shirika la kimataifa la chakula, gesi ya methane inayotokana na mifugo na ng'ombe inapaswa kupungua kwa asilimia 11 hadi 30 kufikia mwaka 2030 ikilinganishwa na kiwango cha mwaka 2010, ili kuhifadhi joto duniani na kupunguza madhara kwa afya ya binadamu na hali ya kilimo. New Zealand ina lengo la kupunguza methane kwa asilimia 10, ambayo inaweza kupatikana kwa kuchanganya kupunguzwa kwa gesi ya mifugo kwa asilimia 10 na kupunguzwa kwa metani kwa asilimia 10 kwa ajili ya kuhifadhi taka. FAO, ambayo ilitoa ripoti yake ya mwisho Jumatatu usiku, imepunguza makadirio yake ya awali ya ongezeko la joto duniani kutokana na bidhaa za wanyama hadi asilimia 12 ya athari ya jumla ya hali ya hewa ya binadamu. "Imeonya dhidi ya kuzingatia tu uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama kwa ufanisi zaidi, kwa gharama ya kuzingatia ukubwa wa kundi, katika jitihada za kupunguza uzalishaji wa gesi.""" Kampuni kama vile Fonterra na Westpac zina malengo ya ufanisi tu kwa kupunguza uzalishaji wa kilimo (yaani malengo kwa kitengo cha bidhaa, sio kupunguzwa kabisa kwa athari ya hali ya hewa). Hata hivyo, wataalamu wanasema kwamba ikiwa idadi ya makundi ya wanyama itaendelea kupungua kidogo, itasababisha kupungua kwa gesi za chafu. "Kwa upande mwingine, ripoti ya FAO inahadhari kwamba ikiwa ongezeko la uzalishaji na upanuzi wa mifugo utazidi faida yoyote ya ufanisi, uzalishaji hautashuka vya kutosha kulinda hali ya hewa. """ Ripoti hiyo inaonesha tofauti kubwa ya kikanda kati ya mataifa maskini, ikiwa ni pamoja na mengi ya Afrika (ambayo ina mifugo michache lakini uzalishaji mkubwa zaidi kwa kila mnyama, kwa sababu ya mifumo isiyo na ufanisi) na mataifa tajiri, ikiwa ni pamoja na wale wa Amerika na Ulaya (ambayo mara nyingi yana idadi kubwa ya mifugo na uzalishaji wa jumla, licha ya ufanisi wao mkubwa). Asia inaunda mahitaji yanayoongezeka kadiri mapato yanavyoongezeka. "Watu katika nchi tajiri zaidi wana tabia ya kula bidhaa nyingi za wanyama kwa kila mtu, wakati watu katika baadhi ya nchi hawapati lishe ya kutosha kwa ujumla na ni uwezekano wa kuongeza matumizi yao ya bidhaa za wanyama kati ya sasa na 2050,"" ripoti hiyo ilisema." Ripoti hiyo pia inasisitiza tofauti kubwa kati ya athari za hali ya hewa za nyama ya ng'ombe na kondoo dhidi ya vyakula vingine vya wanyama kama maziwa, kuku, mayai na nguruwe. Kwa mfano, ng'ombe huchangia asilimia 62 ya athari za hali ya hewa za wanyama wote wa chakula, na nyama ya ng'ombe na kondoo huchangia zaidi ya mayai, kuku, nguruwe na maziwa kwa kila kilo. FAO imesema ni muhimu kupunguza uzalishaji wa uzalishaji wa mifugo ili kuwalinda watu na mashamba dhidi ya uharibifu mkubwa wa hali ya hewa. Lakini kufikia kupunguzwa kunahitajika itahitaji michango kutoka orodha nzima ya mabadiliko, bila hatua moja kufanya wengi wa tofauti. Ripoti hiyo inaorodhesha faida za ufanisi kama moja ya maboresho makubwa ya uwezekano, pamoja na mabadiliko ya lishe ya binadamu (hasa katika nchi zenye utajiri), uzalishaji wa urithi wa wanyama wa chini ya methane, kurekebisha chakula cha wanyama, kutumia virutubisho vya chakula vya kupunguza methane (kwa wakati huu hizi zinafaa hasa kwa wanyama wa kulisha au wanyama waliolelewa katika kibanda). "Ijapokuwa ripoti hiyo inasema kuna nafasi kubwa ya kufanya kilimo kuwa na ufanisi zaidi, hasa lakini si tu katika nchi maskini, inahadhari ""ufahamu wa wanyama na afya ya mazingira haipaswi kuathiriwa kwa kilimo cha kina zaidi.""" Kwa idadi: - 12% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 62% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 62% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 62% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 62% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 62% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 30% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015 - 62% ya uzalishaji wa protini ya wanyama katika 2015.