El Niño, a threat to global agriculture
The El Niño weather phenomenon, which is due to return in the 2 nd half of 2023, is set to amplify the effects of climate change. The Indian-Pacific region is likely to experience severe heat and drought from Q4 onwards, and the impact of El Niño on the agricultural sector will be particularly visible in 2024, as commodity yields are highly dependent on weather conditions (heat, rainfall).
Coface's forecasts point to major uncertainties for certain agricultural commodities (cereals, sugar, palm oil, citrus fruit) in the medium term, and significant risks for food security in certain regions of the world.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon whose origins lie in abnormal variations in surface water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific (Latin American coast). It comprises two opposing phenomena (La Niña and El Niño) that historically occur every 2 to 3 years. La Niña brings colder, wetter weather, while El Niño brings warmer, drier weather.
The ongoing El Niño is occurring less than a year after the last La Niña episode, so much quicker than historical frequencies. This suggests and increase in the frequency of this type of weather phenomenon, which can have damaging consequences in the long-term. Indeed, El Niño weather disturbances, which affect the entire Indo-Pacific region, lead to heat waves and droughts. El Niño thus tends to amplify the negative effects of climate change in Asia-Pacific, South and East Africa and the Americas. Europe, the Middle East and North Africa are spared by the phenomenon.
Key regions for global agriculture and agri-food value chains under pressure
Brazil (the world’s leading producer of sugar cane, soya, coffee and oranges), India (world #2 producer of rice, wheat, sugar cane and potatoes), Indonesia (#1 producer of palm oil, #3 producer of rice) and Australia (world #4 producer of barley and rapeseed) are likely to be particularly exposed, and will see their agricultural yields fall.
Poorer harvests will put pressure on agri-food value chains as a whole, and 2024 is likely to be a year of extreme tension between supply and demand for the sector. Indeed, disruptions will have a negative impact on the production of both the major exporting countries (Australia, Brazil, US) and the demographically hot spots that are supposed to be self-sufficient in food (China, India). The pressure on supplies will therefore be twofold.
Unsurprisingly, food prices are set to rise in 2024. The example of South-East Asia is a relevant illustration of this. Various El Niño episodes in the last 20 years have generally led to inflationary pressures on food prices in the region. Rice, which accounts for 60% of domestic cereal consumption in the region, is very vulnerable to the effects of El Niño, while its water-intensive crop is likely to suffer from low levels of rainfall. Furthermore, the weight of food in regional consumer price indices is significant (around 40%), raising fears of a surge in inflation in the medium term.
Supply difficulties and rising food prices increase the risk of social & political instability in emerging economies.
Countries where the agricultural sector is predominant could suffer significant losses of income and employment. For instance, Indonesia, where agriculture accounts for 13% of GDP and 32% of jobs, could be hit hard by the negative impact of El Niño on rice and palm oil production. In the medium term, the country faces major political deadlines: the next general Indonesian elections (presidential, legislative and senatorial) are scheduled o, February 2024. The economic difficulties caused by the uncertain weather conditions could therefore have a major impact on the country's stability.
On the other hand, exporting countries less affected by weather disruptions could benefit from higher prices of agricultural commodities.
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El Niño ni hatari kwa kilimo duniani, na hali ya hewa ya El Niño, ambayo inatarajiwa kurudi katika nusu ya pili ya 2023, imewekwa kuimarisha athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Mkoa wa India na Pasifiki unatarajiwa kukabiliwa na joto kali na ukame kuanzia Q4 na athari za El Niño kwenye sekta ya kilimo zitakuwa dhahiri zaidi katika 2024, kwani mavuno ya bidhaa yanategemea sana hali ya hewa (joto, mvua). Kwa mujibu wa makadirio ya Coface, kuna wasiwasi mkubwa kwa baadhi ya bidhaa za kilimo (maziwa, sukari, mafuta ya mtende, matunda ya machungwa) kwa muda wa kati, na hatari kubwa kwa usalama wa chakula katika mikoa fulani ya dunia. El Niño ni hali ya hewa ya bahari ambayo hutokana na mabadiliko ya joto la maji ya uso katika Pasifiki ya Kati na Mashariki. Kwa mfano, kuna matukio mawili ya kawaida (La Niña na El Niño) ambayo hutokea kila baada ya miaka miwili au mitatu. La Niña huleta hali ya hewa baridi na yenye unyevunyevu, huku El Niño ikileta hali ya hewa yenye joto na kavu. El Niño ya hivi karibuni inatokea zaidi ya mwaka mmoja baada ya La Niña ya mwisho, na ni ya haraka zaidi kuliko mara nyingi katika historia. Hii inaonyesha kuongezeka kwa mzunguko wa hali hii ya hali ya hewa, ambayo inaweza kuwa na matokeo mabaya kwa muda mrefu. Kwa kweli, El Niño, ambayo huathiri eneo lote la Indo-Pacific, husababisha mawimbi ya joto na ukame. Kwa hivyo El Niño inaelekea kupanua athari mbaya za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa katika Asia-Pacific, Afrika Kusini na Mashariki na Amerika. Ulaya, Mashariki ya Kati na Afrika Kaskazini hazijapatwa na jambo hilo. "Mikoa muhimu kwa kilimo cha kimataifa na minyororo ya thamani ya kilimo cha chakula chini ya shinikizo: Brazil (mtayarishaji mkuu wa dunia wa miwa, soya, kahawa na machungwa), India (mtayarishaji wa pili wa dunia wa mchele, ngano, miwa na viazi), Indonesia (mtayarishaji wa kwanza wa mafuta ya mtende, mtayarishaji wa tatu wa mchele) na Australia (mtayarishaji wa nne wa dunia wa shayiri na rapeseed) ni uwezekano wa kuathiriwa hasa, na kuona mavuno yao ya kilimo.""" "Mavuno mabaya yatasababisha shinikizo kwa minyororo ya thamani ya kilimo na chakula kwa ujumla, na 2024 inaweza kuwa mwaka wa mvutano mkubwa kati ya usambazaji na mahitaji ya sekta hiyo. """ Kwa kweli, usumbufu utakuwa na athari mbaya kwa uzalishaji wa nchi kuu za kuuza nje (Australia, Brazil, Marekani) na maeneo ya demographic ya moto ambayo inapaswa kuwa ya kujitegemea katika chakula (China, India). Kwa hiyo shinikizo juu ya usambazaji itakuwa mara mbili. Kwa hiyo, haishangazi kwamba bei ya chakula itapanda mwaka 2024. Mfano wa Asia ya Kusini-Mashariki ni mfano unaofaa wa hili. El Niño ya miaka 20 iliyopita imesababisha mfumuko wa bei ya chakula katika eneo hilo. Mchele, ambao unashughulikia asilimia 60 ya matumizi ya nafaka ya ndani katika eneo hilo, ni hatari sana kwa athari za El Niño, wakati mazao yake ya maji mengi yanaweza kuathiriwa na viwango vya chini vya mvua. Kwa kuongezea, uzito wa chakula katika viashiria vya bei ya watumiaji wa mkoa ni muhimu (karibu 40%), ikitoa hofu ya kuongezeka kwa mfumuko wa bei ya bei kwa muda wa kati. Matatizo ya usambazaji na kuongezeka kwa bei ya chakula huongeza hatari ya ukosefu wa utulivu wa kijamii na kisiasa katika uchumi unaojitokeza. Nchi ambazo sekta ya kilimo ni kubwa inaweza kuathiriwa kwa hasara kubwa ya mapato na ajira. Kwa mfano, Indonesia, ambapo kilimo huchangia 13% ya Pato la Taifa na 32% ya ajira, inaweza kuathiriwa sana na athari mbaya ya El Niño kwenye uzalishaji wa mchele na mafuta ya mtende. Katika muda wa kati, nchi inakabiliwa na tarehe za mwisho kubwa za kisiasa: uchaguzi wa jumla wa Indonesia (rais, wabunge na seneta) umepangwa kufanyika Februari 2024. Matatizo ya kiuchumi yanayosababishwa na hali mbaya ya hali ya hewa yanaweza kuwa na athari kubwa kwa utulivu wa nchi. Kwa upande mwingine, nchi zinazosafirisha ambazo hazikuathiriwa sana na usumbufu wa hali ya hewa zingeweza kufaidika kutokana na kuongezeka kwa bei ya bidhaa za kilimo. Tel: +4451 555