Posted on 19 September 2019
The forthcoming IPCC report on Oceans and Cryosphere is a reminder that the systems we rely upon to sustain life on earth are losing their capacity to regulate the climate. We can't afford to let that happen.
One of the most famous photos ever taken is NASA’s Blue Marble - a beautiful picture of Earth from space taken on 7 December, 1972. The brown and green of Africa makes way to the white of Antarctic ice and the vast deep blue of the ocean. While not visible in the iconic image, behind those fantastic colours is a rich diversity of life, biodiversity that is today severely threatened by climate change.
In early August this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Land Report, highlighting the threats to the brown and green: how our use of land drives climate change and how climate change adds stress to land and so worsens existing risks - such as to food security. And on Friday, IPCC scientists and governments from around the world will gather in Monaco to discuss the blue and white that make up two other pieces of the climate puzzle - the 71% of Earth’s surface covered by oceans and the world’s frozen places covered by snow and ice. This meeting is to approve the IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate next week.
Climate regulation and vulnerability
While they say a picture is worth a thousand words, I wonder if any words would be enough to do justice to the vital role these wet and frozen parts of the world play in helping maintain our well-being and that of the planet.
For instance, they help to regulate the global climate. The bright white of the polar regions and snow-covered mountains reflect sunlight back into space, lessening the warming of the earth. But these regions are themselves vulnerable to climate change: this same warming leads to the ice melting. The loss of snow and ice exposes darker underlying ocean or rock, and so we go from reflecting to absorbing heat - and a potential acceleration of climate change.
The oceans tell a similar story. They slow global warming, absorbing excess heat from the atmosphere and even removing around a quarter of the carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. But absorbing heat results in warmer waters, and the dissolving carbon dioxide acidifies the ocean, making it more difficult for some plankton and coral to form their skeletons which can further impact balance within the ocean ecosystem.
Science is consistently pointing toward the fact that our oceans and frozen world are under enormous direct pressure from our activities, and are also highly vulnerable to human-induced climate change. Indeed, accelerating change in these regions are some of the most visible symptoms of the climate crisis. Scientists have recently reported shrinking glaciers on all seven continents, with devastating impacts in places such as Asia and South America where many millions of people rely on them for water.
From loss of sea-ice and melting of land-based ice sheets to rising sea levels and more intense extreme events (such as ocean heatwaves and cyclones) which can be hugely devastating to people, infrastructure and nature, we are witnessing a vast range of climate impacts. If these and other impacts are left unchecked, they will have disastrous consequences for millions of people and for the planet’s most vulnerable ecosystems.
However frightening the science may be, we still have choices which limit future climate risks despite some of them being locked in because of past and current emissions. We need to build resilience and to adapt to this crisis, and we need urgent decarbonisation - more mitigation can slow the rate and magnitude of future climate risks and help adaptations to be more effective.
The forthcoming IPCC report on Oceans and Cryosphere, as well as the recent Land Report, are stark reminders that the systems we rely upon to sustain life on the Blue Marble are losing their capacity to regulate the climate. We can't afford to let that happen.
The scale of the climate crisis is up to us and our leaders - we still stand a chance to avoid the worst if, by 2020, Governments raise the ambition of their pledges under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C. While in Monaco observing the discussions, we hope to hear bold announcements in the UN Secretary General Summit that will take place in New York. We also hope countries will step up their commitments at the UN climate COP 25 in December in Chile.
The Blue Marble is in trouble but the dice is ours to roll. We need to act fast and we need to act now.
Dr Stephen Cornelius is the Chief Adviser on Climate Change and IPCC lead for WWF. He will lead the WWF team at the IPCC Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate approval session in Monaco. Follow him on twitter @SteveJCornelius.
WWF is an observer organisation to the IPCC.
Ripoti ya IPCC ya Bahari na Cryosphere ni kumbukumbu kwamba mifumo ambayo tunategemea kudumisha maisha duniani inapoteza uwezo wao wa kudhibiti hali ya hewa. Hatuwezi kuruhusu hilo litukie. Picha ya kwanza ya Blue Marble ya NASA iliyochukuliwa mnamo Desemba 7, 1972 Rangi ya kahawia na kijani-kibichi ya Afrika inabadilika na kuwa nyeupe ya barafu ya Antaktika na bluu kubwa ya bahari. Ingawa haionekani katika picha ya iconic, nyuma ya rangi hizo ajabu ni utajiri wa maisha, bio-tofauti ambayo leo ni tishio kubwa na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Katika ripoti yake ya mwaka huu, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ilionyesha jinsi matumizi ya ardhi yanavyoongeza shinikizo kwa ardhi na hivyo kuharibu hatari zilizopo - kama vile usalama wa chakula. Wanasayansi wa IPCC na serikali kutoka kote ulimwenguni watakusanyika huko Monaco kujadili rangi ya bluu na nyeupe ambayo huunda vipande viwili vingine vya fumbo la hali ya hewa - 71% ya uso wa Dunia uliofunikwa na bahari na maeneo ya barafu yaliyofunikwa na theluji na barafu. Mkutano huo wa kimataifa wa IPCC unaendelea na ripoti ya pekee ya IPCC ya bahari na cryosphere katika hali ya hewa inayobadilika. """Wakati wanasema picha ina thamani ya maneno elfu, mimi ajabu kama maneno yoyote ingekuwa ya kutosha kufanya haki kwa jukumu muhimu hizi sehemu mvua na barafu ya dunia kucheza katika kusaidia kudumisha ustawi wetu na kwamba ya sayari." Kwa mfano, husaidia kudhibiti hali ya hewa duniani. Nyota nyeupe ya maeneo ya barafu na milima iliyofunikwa na theluji huonyesha mwangaza wa jua na kuupelekea angani, na hivyo kupunguza ongezeko la joto duniani. Lakini mikoa hii yenyewe ni dhaifu kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa: joto hili lile linaongoza kwa kuyeyuka kwa barafu. Kupoteza theluji na barafu hufunua bahari nyeusi au mwamba, na hivyo tunakwenda kutoka kutafakari hadi kunyonya joto - na kuongeza kasi ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Bahari husimulia hadithi kama hiyo. Hizi hupunguza joto la dunia, huchukua joto la ziada kutoka angahewa na hata huondoa karibu robo ya uzalishaji wa kaboni dioksidi kutoka kwa shughuli za binadamu. Lakini kuingiza joto husababisha maji ya joto, na kutoweka kwa kaboni dioksidi huongeza asidi ya bahari, na kufanya iwe vigumu kwa baadhi ya plankton na matumbawe kuunda mifupa yao, ambayo inaweza kuathiri zaidi usawa ndani ya mazingira ya bahari. Sayansi inaonyesha mara kwa mara kwamba bahari zetu na dunia yetu ya barafu ziko chini ya shinikizo kubwa la moja kwa moja kutoka kwa shughuli zetu, na pia ni dhaifu sana kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanayosababishwa na binadamu. Kwa kweli, mabadiliko ya kasi katika mikoa hii ni baadhi ya dalili dhahiri zaidi za mgogoro wa hali ya hewa. Wataalamu wa maji wameripoti kuwa barafu za barafu zinapungua katika mabara yote saba, na kuwa na athari mbaya katika maeneo kama vile Asia na Amerika Kusini, ambapo mamilioni ya watu hutegemea barafu hizo kupata maji. Kuanzia kupoteza barafu ya bahari na kuyeyuka kwa barafu ya nchi kavu hadi kuongezeka kwa viwango vya bahari na matukio makubwa zaidi (kama vile mawimbi ya joto ya bahari na vimbunga) ambayo yanaweza kuwa na uharibifu mkubwa kwa watu, miundombinu na asili, tunashuhudia athari nyingi za hali ya hewa. Ikiwa athari hizi na nyingine hazitachunguzwa, zitakuwa na matokeo mabaya kwa mamilioni ya watu na kwa mifumo ya ikolojia dhaifu zaidi ya sayari. Hata kama sayansi inaweza kuwa ya kutisha, bado tuna chaguzi ambazo zinapunguza hatari za hali ya hewa za baadaye, licha ya baadhi yao kuwa imefungwa kwa sababu ya uzalishaji wa zamani na wa sasa. """Tunahitaji kujenga nguvu na kukabiliana na mgogoro huu, na tunahitaji haraka decarbonization - zaidi kupunguza inaweza kupunguza kiwango na ukubwa wa hatari za hali ya hewa za baadaye na kusaidia marekebisho kuwa na ufanisi zaidi." Ripoti ya IPCC ya Bahari na Cryosphere, pamoja na Ripoti ya hivi karibuni ya Ardhi, ni kumbukumbu kali kwamba mifumo tunayoitegemea kudumisha maisha kwenye Blue Marble inapoteza uwezo wao wa kudhibiti hali ya hewa. Hatuwezi kuruhusu hilo litukie. """Ukubwa wa mgogoro wa hali ya hewa unategemea sisi na viongozi wetu, bado tuna nafasi ya kuepuka mbaya zaidi ikiwa, ifikapo mwaka 2020, Serikali zitaongeza tamaa ya ahadi zao chini ya Mkataba wa Paris ili kupunguza ongezeko la joto duniani hadi 1.5 ° C." """Tunatarajia kusikia tangazo la ujasiri katika mkutano wa wakurugenzi wa Umoja wa Mataifa ambao utafanyika New York." "Tunatarajia pia nchi zitaongeza ahadi zao katika mkutano wa hali ya hewa wa Umoja wa Mataifa wa COP25 mnamo Desemba nchini Chile. """ Blue Marble ni katika shida lakini dice ni yetu kwa roll. Tunahitaji kutenda haraka na tunahitaji kutenda sasa. Stephen Cornelius, Mshauri Mkuu wa Mabadiliko ya Hali ya Hewa na Mkurugenzi wa IPCC "Wakili wa WWF, Robert W. Kelley, alitoa taarifa yake ya kwanza katika ripoti maalum ya IPCC ya ""Mazingira na Cryosphere"" katika mkutano wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa huko Monaco." Mfuateni kwenye Twitter @SteveJCornelius. WWF ni shirika la watazamaji kwa IPCC.