November 29, 2023
The sudden closure of the east Bering Sea snow crab fishery for the 2022-2023 season, and now extended for the 2023-2024 season, shocked stakeholders, scientists, and other fisheries experts around the world. For a fishery once worth $132 million per year and popularized by the reality-tv show Deadliest Catch, the speed, social impact, and potential longevity of this collapse is reminiscent of the closure of Newfoundland cod in 1992 where over 30,000 people lost their jobs overnight. But compared to cod and many other fishery collapses that have historically been caused by overfishing, scientists recently published findings showing that the collapse of Bering Sea snow crab was likely a result of starvation driven by warming waters. The authors of the study dubbed climate change, “the next existential crisis for fisheries,” with snow crab, “a prime example for how quickly the outlook can change for a population.”
But perhaps, in 2023, we shouldn’t be so surprised at devastating collapses and closures of fisheries like east Bering Sea snow crab. From lobsters, to forage fish, to great whales, climate change has been causing drastic shifts in the health and distribution of marine life around the world for years, “stirring chaos” for fisheries along the way.
When the ocean had absorbed over 25% of CO2 emissions and 90% of excess heat from climate change by 2022, it’s only logical that some of the earliest detectable impacts of climate change are observed in the sea. Impacts on marine biodiversity from marine heatwaves and other phenomena are not only an outcome of climate change, scientists also observe that the responses are so rapid, widespread, and precise that they can serve as useful indicators of its progress in near real-time. Marine biodiversity and coastal communities can also be impacted from climate change related acidification, eutrophication, extreme storms, and other impacts. The evidence is clear: climate change is a present threat for fisheries everywhere, and the danger will likely become more severe. Even more resilient fishes, such as tunas and other highly migratory species that have widespread ranges and can tolerate a range of ocean temperatures, are expected to face significant contractions in suitable habitat, among other potential shifts in distribution.
What can fisheries do to prepare? Fortunately, scientists have tackled this very question for several years, and there is a growing wealth of knowledge and resources available. Among a diversity of pathways for how fisheries can individually build resilience, recent research has highlighted the overarching importance of effective governance (including adaptive management and long-term planning), ecosystem-based fisheries management, and utilizing the best available science. Social equity and resilience are also frequently integrated into climate change adaptation plans, and should be a feature of climate change resilient fisheries as well, including conflict resolution for disputes ignited by climate-change driven species range shifts.
Harvest strategies, or management procedures, are an example of one type of management tool that can facilitate adaptive management and can achieve several characteristics of climate resilient fisheries simultaneously:
These benefits for climate change resilience have been top of mind for us at HarvestStrategies.org as we work with Regional Fishery Management Organizations (RFMOs) to implement harvest strategies around the world. We are encouraged to see four of the five tuna-RFMOs have also formalized climate change advisory committees or workplans to more directly integrate climate change considerations into research and management (Table 1, see below).
But while there have been many accomplishments building climate change resilience in recent years, there is still more to be done. From November 30th to December 12th, governments from around the world will convene in Dubai for the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28). Food sustainability is a major focus at this year’s event, including how to reduce carbon footprints and also make food production more resilient to climate change impacts, especially in developing countries. Over 3 billion people rely on fish for 20% of their daily protein intake, with some coastal communities up to 70%. With most tuna production from low-cost species such as Skipjack, these efforts to improve fisheries sustainability are important to both environmental conservation and global food security. COP28 is a reminder that climate resilient fisheries – and tools like harvest strategies that can help achieve them – play a central role in a broader conversation on how to achieve a food-secure, sustainable future for the planet.
Table 1: tuna-RFMO climate change resolutions
|Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC)
|Adopted in 2019, resolves to consider potential climate change impacts on highly migratory fish in the region, consequences on economies and food stability for relevant communities, support additional science on climate change impacts, and other actions.
|The Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC)
|Adopted in 2022, commits to consider the potential impacts of climate change on tuna stocks, bycatch, and other species in the ecosystem in the development of new measures, support further scientific research on climate change and tuna stocks, for the Scientific Committee to advise the Commission on climate change when requested, and other activities.
|International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT)
|Adopted in 2022, a commitment to consider climate change impacts on target stocks, support additional climate change-focused research and data collection, consider how fishing activity may be impacted by climate change, and other activities, and to initiate the climate change work “without delay” including climate change focused meetings beginning in 2023.
|Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC)
|Adopted in 2023, a commitment to include climate change as an agenda item for the Working Group on Ecosystem and Bycatch (EBWG), the Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC), the annual Commission meeting, the next science strategic plan, and other activities.
Kufungwa kwa uvuvi wa barafu ya bahari ya Bering ya mashariki kwa msimu wa 2022-2023 na sasa kupanuliwa kwa msimu wa 2023-2024 kumeshtusha wadau, wanasayansi na wataalamu wengine wa uvuvi ulimwenguni. Kwa kuwa samaki hao walipata thamani ya dola milioni 132 kwa mwaka, na walipata umaarufu kutokana na kipindi cha televisheni kinachoitwa Deadliest Catch, kasi, athari za kijamii, na uwezekano wa kuharibika kwa samaki hao ni sawa na kufungwa kwa samaki wa Newfoundland mwaka 1992, ambapo watu zaidi ya 30,000 walipoteza kazi zao. Lakini ikilinganishwa na maporomoko ya samaki wa baharini na mengine mengi ambayo yamesababishwa na uvuvi wa kupita kiasi, wanasayansi wametoa matokeo ya hivi karibuni kuonyesha kwamba kuanguka kwa barafu ya bahari ya Bering ni uwezekano wa kuwa matokeo ya njaa inayosababishwa na maji ya joto. "Wanahabari wa utafiti huo wametaja mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kuwa ""mshtuko wa pili wa uharibifu wa samaki,"" na ""mfano bora wa jinsi mtazamo wa idadi ya watu unavyoweza kubadilika haraka,"" lakini labda, katika 2023, hatupaswi kushangazwa na kuanguka kwa uharibifu na kufungwa kwa samaki kama vile baharini ya Bering." Kutoka kwa kamba-mti, samaki wa chakula, hadi nyangumi wakubwa, mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yamekuwa yakisababisha mabadiliko makubwa katika afya na usambazaji wa maisha ya baharini ulimwenguni kote kwa miaka, "kuchochea machafuko" kwa uvuvi njiani. Wakati bahari imevuta zaidi ya 25% ya uzalishaji wa CO2 na 90% ya joto la ziada kutoka kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ifikapo 2022, ni mantiki tu kwamba baadhi ya athari za mapema za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa zinatambuliwa baharini. "Madhara ya mawimbi ya joto baharini na matukio mengine sio matokeo ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa tu, wanasayansi pia wanagundua kuwa majibu ni ya haraka, ya kuenea, na sahihi sana kwamba yanaweza kutumika kama viashiria muhimu vya maendeleo yake karibu wakati halisi. """ Biodiversity ya baharini na jamii za pwani pia zinaweza kuathiriwa na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa yanayohusiana na asidi, eutrophication, dhoruba kali, na athari nyingine. """Ushahidi ni wazi: mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa ni tishio la sasa kwa uvuvi kila mahali, na hatari hiyo inawezekana kuwa kali zaidi." Samaki wenye nguvu zaidi, kama vile tuna na spishi nyingine za kuhamia mbali ambazo zina maeneo mengi na zinaweza kuvumilia joto la bahari, zinatarajiwa kukabiliwa na kupungua kwa kiasi kikubwa katika mazingira yanayofaa, kati ya mabadiliko mengine ya uwezekano katika usambazaji. Ni nini uvuvi unaweza kufanya ili kujitayarisha? Kwa bahati nzuri, wanasayansi wamekuwa wakijaribu kugundua sababu ya tatizo hili kwa miaka mingi, na kuna maarifa mengi na rasilimali nyingi zinazopatikana. Kati ya njia mbalimbali za jinsi uvuvi unaweza kujenga upinzani, utafiti wa hivi karibuni umesisitiza umuhimu mkubwa wa utawala mzuri (ikiwa ni pamoja na usimamizi wa kubadilika na mipango ya muda mrefu), usimamizi wa uvuvi wa ikolojia, na kutumia sayansi bora inayopatikana. Usawa wa kijamii na ujasiri pia hujumuishwa mara nyingi katika mipango ya kukabiliana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, na inapaswa kuwa sifa ya uvuvi wa hali ya hewa, pamoja na utatuzi wa migogoro kwa ajili ya migogoro iliyochochewa na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Mifumo ya ufugaji wa samaki ni mfano wa aina ya zana ya usimamizi ambayo inaweza kuwezesha usimamizi wa kubadilika na inaweza kufikia sifa kadhaa za uvuvi wa hali ya hewa wakati huo huo: Faida hizi kwa uhifadhi wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa zimekuwa juu ya akili yetu katika HarvestStrategies.org tunapofanya kazi na Mashirika ya Usimamizi wa Uvuvi wa Mkoa (RMO) kutekeleza mikakati ya uvuvi ulimwenguni. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti hiyo, mashirika manne kati ya matano ya ufugaji wa samaki wa baharini (RFO) yameweka rasmi kamati za ushauri za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa au mipango ya kazi ili kuingiza moja kwa moja masuala ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa katika utafiti na usimamizi (tazama Jedwali 1). Lakini wakati kuna mafanikio mengi ya kujenga upinzani wa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa katika miaka ya hivi karibuni, bado kuna mengi ya kufanywa. Kuanzia Novemba 30 hadi Desemba 12, serikali za nchi zote duniani zitakutana Dubai kwa ajili ya Mkutano wa 28 wa Umoja wa Mataifa wa Mabadiliko ya Hali ya Hewa (COP28). Utekelezaji wa chakula ni lengo kuu katika tukio la mwaka huu, ikiwa ni pamoja na jinsi ya kupunguza alama za kaboni na pia kufanya uzalishaji wa chakula kuwa thabiti zaidi kwa athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, haswa katika nchi zinazoendelea. Zaidi ya watu bilioni 3 hutegemea samaki kwa 20% ya ulaji wao wa protini ya kila siku, na baadhi ya jamii za pwani hadi 70%. Kwa kuwa tuna nyingi hutengenezwa kutokana na aina za samaki za bei nafuu kama vile Skipjack, juhudi hizi za kuboresha uendelevu wa uvuvi ni muhimu kwa uhifadhi wa mazingira na usalama wa chakula duniani. COP28 ni ukumbusho kwamba uvuvi wa hali ya hewa na zana kama mikakati ya mavuno ambayo inaweza kusaidia kufanikisha zina jukumu kuu katika mazungumzo ya kina juu ya jinsi ya kufikia usalama wa chakula, siku zijazo endelevu kwa sayari. "Kama ilivyoelezwa katika taarifa ya Tume ya Uvuvi ya Pasifiki Magharibi na Kati (WCPFC) ya mwaka 2019, ""Kama ilivyoelezwa katika taarifa ya Tume ya Uvuvi ya Pasifiki Magharibi na Kati (WCPFC) ya mwaka 2019, Tume ya Uvuvi ya Pasifiki Magharibi na Kati (WCPFC) imeamua kuzingatia athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwa samaki wanaohama sana katika eneo hilo, athari za uchumi na utulivu wa chakula kwa jamii husika." Tume ya Tuna ya Bahari ya Hindi (IOTC) inaahidi kuzingatia athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwa hifadhi za tuna, samaki wa baharini, na spishi nyingine katika mazingira katika maendeleo ya hatua mpya, kusaidia utafiti zaidi wa kisayansi juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa na hifadhi za tuna, kwa Kamati ya Sayansi kushauri Tume juu ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa wakati wa ombi. Tume ya Kimataifa ya Uhifadhi wa Tuna wa Atlantiki (ICCAT) ilichukua ahadi ya kuzingatia athari za mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kwenye hifadhi za lengo, kusaidia utafiti wa ziada unaozingatia mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa na ukusanyaji wa data, kuzingatia jinsi shughuli za uvuvi zinaweza kuathiriwa na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa, na shughuli zingine, na kuanzisha kazi ya mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa bila kuchelewesha, pamoja na mikutano inayozingatia mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kuanzia 2023. Tume ya Tuna ya Tropiki ya Amerika (IATTC) ilikubaliana na Umoja wa Mataifa kuingiza mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kama kipengele cha ajenda ya Kikundi cha Kazi cha Ecosystem na Bycatch (EBWG), Kamati ya Ushauri ya Sayansi (SAC), mkutano wa kila mwaka wa Tume, mpango wa mkakati wa sayansi wa pili, na shughuli zingine.