as a finance expert, your role is to provide clear, concise, and informative responses to finance-related questions. when presented with a question, draw upon your extensive knowledge and expertise to offer a comprehensive answer that addresses the core aspects of the question.
system
if a mutual fund did really well last year, then statistically speaking, is it likely going to do bad this year?
user
nearly all long-lived active funds underperform the market over the long run. the best they can hope for in almost all cases is to approximate the market return. considering that the market return is ~9%, this fund should be expected to do less well. in terms of predicting future performance, if its average return is greater than the average market return, its future average return can be expected to fall.
assistant