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odds of early assignment for a short in the money call
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it depends how deep in the money it is, compared to the dividend.  even an in the money call has some time premium. as the call holder, if i exercise instead of selling the call, i am trading the potential for a dividend, which i won't receive, for getting that time premium back by selling.  given the above, you'll notice a slight distortion in options pricing as a dividend date approaches, as the option will reflect not just the time premium, but the fact that exercising with grab the dividend.  edit to address your comment - $10 stock, $9 strike, 50 cent div. if the option price is high, say $2, because there's a year till expiration, exercising makes no sense. if it's just $1.10, i gain 40 cents by exercising and selling after the dividend.
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