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system
evidence for timing market in the short run?
user
this is the s&p a bit over 20 years. if you've discovered a way to sell at 1400 in 2000, buy at 800 or so in 2003, sell again, well, you get the idea.  there's strong evidence the typical investor hears the s&p is making new highs and rushes in. it's this influx that may send stocks higher from here, until the smart money senses 'overbought' and bails.  i am not the smart money, but my ability to ignore emotion, and use asset allocation naturally had me selling a bit into each run up, and of course buying during downturns. not all or none, and not with any perfect timing, just at year end when i'm rebalancing.  i am not a fan of short term timing, although i do respect victor's observations and excellent example of when it's been shown to work.
assistant