Here's a short story:

Robinson Crusoe is a famous novel written by Daniel Defoe. The book tells the story of a man who is shipwrecked . He spends 28 years on an island near Venezuela. The book tells the story of everything that happens to Robinson Crusoe. He hopes someone will rescue him, but he has been there for so long on his own that he also begins to fear being rescued. Robinson Crusoe was published in 1719. Most experts believe the story is based on the life of Alexander Selkirk, who was a Scottish sailor. On an expedition in 1704, Selkirk had an argument with his ship's captain. Selkirk thought the ship was not safe and was about to fall apart. When the ship stopped at a remote island to get fresh water, Selkirk got off. He tried to get the other crew members to leave with him, but nobody would. The shop then sailed away without him. Selkirk spent four years and four months on his own on the island, known as Aguas Buenas. Selkirk was finally rescued by a ship that visited the island in 1709. The ship's captain was grateful to Selkirk because he provided food for the crew when they arrived. Now archaeologists think they have found the remains of Selkirk's camp on Aguas Buenas. They found two deep holes that would have held wooden posts. The archaeologists say this is evidence that Selkirk built a shelter there. The post holes are near a fresh water stream. They are located quite high up, which would have meant that Selkirk was able to watch out for the ships coming close to the island. The most interesting evidence, the archaeologists say, is part of a piece of equipment used by sailors to navigate . Historians believe Selkirk was a navigator, so the instrument could have belonged to him. Robinson Crusoe was published ten years after Selkirk was rescued. Most experts think Daniel Defoe heard and read stories about Selkirk, which inspired him to write the book. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what year did Selkirk have an argument with his captain?
Guess: 1704
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long after Selkirk was rescued did Robinson Crusoe publish his book?
Guess: ten years after
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who wrote Robinson Crusoe?
Guess: Daniel Defoe
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long does the man stay on the island?
Guess: 28 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what year was the book published?
Guess: 1719
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Selkirk try to save his shipmates?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: did they listen to him?

no