Here's a short story:

Pedro Rossi is happy--he is very,very happy! He won $500,000! He won the lottery ! Pedro is happy for only a few days. Then he remembers his lottery ticket! He throws it in the garbage _ ! Pedro runs to the garbage can and looks in it. The garbage can is not over there at all! "The garbage is gone,"his wife says. "The garbage truck comes in the morning." The garbage truck takes the garbage can to the garbage dump ! Pedro runs to the dump. He looks for it for two days. But he can't find it. Pedro lives in town in Brazil. Pedro tells the people in the town,"Look for my lottery ticket at the dump. If you find it,I can give you half the money." Everyday hundreds of people go to the dump to look for the ticket. Five days later,a man finds it. Pedro gives the man $250,000. Pedro won $500,000 in the lottery. Now he won only 250,000. But he is not sad. "Before,one man was happy,"Pedro says. "Now two men are happy!" (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Why was Pedro so happy?
Guess: he won $500,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did his happiness last long?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened take make his happiness so short lived?
Guess: he remembered where the ticket is
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was it?
Guess: in the garbage
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he able to find it in the garbage can?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: The garbage is gone,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did the garbage truck pick it up?
Guess: in the morning
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where does the city's garbage end up?
Guess: the garbage dump
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why were so many people headed towards the garbage dump?
Guess: to look for the ticket
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was their incentive to do this?
Guess: getting half the money
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did anyone find the ticket?

yes