Here's a short story:

It's Sunday. Children don't go to school on Sundays. But Kate gets up early in the morning. "It's my birthday. I'm eight years old today." she thinks, "Where are Dad and Mum? I want to know what they can give me for my birthday." Her father and mother are not at home. They are going shopping. And now they are talking about what to buy for Kate. ---- Dad: How about the doll? It looks nice. I think Kate would like the doll. ---- Mom: I don't think so. She is not a little girl. I think she likes a new dress. Girls often like new dresses very much. ---Dad: But she has a few new dresses and some new blouses. Oh, I think she must be very happy to have a box of colorful pencils and some picture books. Do you think so? ----- Mom: Yes. Let's go over there and buy them. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What day is it?
Guess: Sunday.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is special about Sundays?
Guess: Children don't go to school
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is special about this particular Sunday?
Guess: It's my birthday.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose birthday?
Guess: my birthday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is the story about?
Guess: Kate
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How old is she?
Guess: eight years old
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are her parents home with her?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where are they?
Guess: Shopping
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who are they shopping for?
Guess: Kate
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do they agree on what to buy her?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does her dad first want to buy her?
Guess: doll
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does the mom agree with him?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: She is not a little girl, she wants a new dress.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why does she want to get her a dress?
Guess: Girls like dresses.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does the dad agree?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: She has a few new dresses and some new blouses.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do they ever agree on anything?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What?
Guess: box of colorful pencils and some picture books
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose idea was that?
Guess: Dad
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time of the day is all this happening?
Guess: early in the morning
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Should they shop earlier next year lol?

Yes