Here's a short story:

Tim had always a red bike. His birthday party was coming up and he hoped that his parents would finally get him the bike. When his friends came over for the party, Tim was very worried that he wouldn't get the bike. He looked at all the presents and none of them seemed big enough to have a bike in them. Tim was sad. When it was time to open the presents he opened them one at a time. The first present was not a bike. The second present was not a bike. The third present was the biggest one. Tim knew if the bike was going to be in any of the presents it was going to be in this box. Tim opened it and there was no bike inside. Just as Tim tried not to look too upset, his Dad brought in the biggest present of them all. His Dad had been hiding the present all along. Tim opened it and his new bike was inside the box. Tim put the bike together with his Dad's help. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What does Tim want for his birthday?
Guess: A bike.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color does he want it to be?
Guess: Red
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was invited to his birthday?
Guess: His friends
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was there a bike in the first present?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And in the second one?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why did Tim think his third present could be a bike?

It was the biggest one.