Here's a short story:

San Marino, officially the Republic of San Marino (), also known as the Most Serene Republic of San Marino (), is an enclaved microstate surrounded by Italy, situated on the Italian Peninsula on the northeastern side of the Apennine Mountains. Its size is just over , with a population of 33,562. Its capital is the City of San Marino and its largest city is Serravalle. San Marino has the smallest population of all the members of the Council of Europe. 

The country takes its name from Marinus, a stonemason originating from the Roman colony on the island of Rab, in modern-day Croatia. In 257 CE Marinus participated in the reconstruction of Rimini's city walls after their destruction by Liburnian pirates. Marinus then went on to found an independent monastic community on Monte Titano in 301 CE; thus, San Marino lays claim to be the oldest extant sovereign state as well as the oldest constitutional republic. 

San Marino is governed by the Constitution of San Marino ("Leges Statutae Republicae Sancti Marini"), a series of six books written in Latin in the late 16th century, that dictate the country’s political system, among other matters. The country is considered to have the earliest written governing documents, or constitution, still in effect. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who governs San Marino?
Guess: the Constitution of San Marino
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is San Marino named after?
Guess: Marinus
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his occupation?
Guess: a stonemason
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is Rab?
Guess: Croatia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is San Marino a young state?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How old is it?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is it a peaceful republic?

yes