Here's a short story:

Billy had a pet turtle that he took good care of, everyday. His turtle's name was Tumble. Tumble liked to walk around outside in the garden and dig small holes to sleep in. Billy loved Tumble and would visit him outside when he got home from school. Tumble's favorite food was oatmeal. So, every day after school, Billy would make Tumble a big bowl of oatmeal and take it outside for Tumble to enjoy. Tumble would see Billy and walk up to him as fast as a turtle can go. Billy would put the bowl down and wait for Tumble to come up to the bowl to eat from it. When Tumble reached the bowl, he put his nose on it. But, the oatmeal was too hot to eat. Billy reached down and blew on the hot oatmeal, to cool it down for Tumble to eat. Once the oatmeal was cool enough, Tumble could dig in and eat his big bowl of oatmeal. Billy loved to watch as Tumble ate his bowl of oatmeal, because Billy took good care of Tumble, everyday. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was tumble?
Guess: A turtle
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did anyone care for him?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who?
Guess: Billy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Tumble like to do?
Guess: Walk around outside.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did he sleep?
Guess: small holes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When would Billy see Tumble?
Guess: After school.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he feed him?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what?
Guess: oatmeal
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did Tumble like it?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how much?
Guess: his favorite
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was it the right temperature?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why?
Guess: too hot
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Billy do something?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what did he do?

blew on it