Here's a short story:

The United States presidential election of 2008 was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. Democratic Party nominees Barack Obama, a U.S. Senator from Illinois, and his running mate Joe Biden, a long-time U.S. Senator from Delaware, defeated Republican Party nominees John McCain, a long-time and current U.S. Senator from Arizona, and his running mate Sarah Palin, a Governor of Alaska. Obama became the first African American ever to be elected president of the United States, and Joe Biden became the first Roman Catholic ever elected vice president. 

The incumbent president, George W. Bush, of the Republican Party, was ineligible to be elected to a third term due to term limits in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. McCain secured the Republican nomination by March 2008, but the Democratic nomination was marked by a sharp contest between Obama and initial front-runner Senator Hillary Clinton, with Obama not securing the nomination until early June. Early campaigning had focused heavily on the Iraq War and the unpopularity of outgoing Republican President George W. Bush, but all candidates focused on domestic concerns as well, which grew more prominent as the economy experienced the onset of the Great Recession and a major financial crisis that peaked in September 2008. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was the incumbent?
Guess: George W. Bush
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which party?
Guess: Republican
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he eligible to run?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who got the Republican nomination?
Guess: John McCain
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By when?
Guess: March 2008
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was one person competiting on the democratic side?
Guess: Barack Obama
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And the other?
Guess: Hillary Clinton
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was chosen?
Guess: Obama
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: early June
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was the  main focus?

the Iraq War