Here's a short story:

Ever thought of moving to a new country? How about starting a new country? Patri Friedman is planning to do just that. He left Google years ago to set up the Seasteading Institute. And his dream is to build seasteads-----floating micro-nations in the middle of the ocean. So, what will life on a seastead be like? Probably a bit like life on a cruise liner , but much larger, with shops, gyms, swimming pools, schools and other areas. In fact, the early seasteads may actually be specially-rebuilt cruise liners. But as science advances, Friedman believes they'll become more like floating cities, with several hundred people. Seasteading raises a lot of questions. First of all, how will the new countries make money? The Seasteading Institute has suggested several money-making ideas, including ocean-based theme parks, casinos and fish farming. There's also the questions of safety. With storms, typhoons and pirates , the high seas are a dangerous place. However, the Institute says that it can stand bad weather and prevent crimes with its well-designed systems. So, is this just a day dream? Well, maybe not. One of the people behind the project is Peter Thiel. He founded PayPal and was one of the first investors in Facebook. So far, he's donated $ 500,000 to the project. And Friedman isn't wasting any time. He recently announced the creation of the Poseidon Award. This will be given to the first seastead with fifty people. Friedman is hoping to hand out the award in 2015. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where did Patri used to work?
Guess: Google
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: to start the Seasteading Institute
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his dream?
Guess: to build seasteads
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is that?
Guess: floating micro-nations
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where will they be?
Guess: in the middle of the ocean.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are some suggestions for them to make money
Guess: ocean-based theme parks, casinos and fish farming.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is backing this project?
Guess: Peter Thiel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is he known for?
Guess: Paypal
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he make any investments?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what?
Guess: Facebook
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What else?
Guess: The Seasteading Institute
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how much?
Guess: $ 500,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people will live on a seastead
Guess: several hundred people.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What kind of things will they have?

schools, shops, gyms. and swimming pools