Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- His nickname is "The Fever." Mexican officials say Jose Carlos Moreno Flores was a major drug lord in charge of trafficking and operations for a large Mexican cartel in the coastal state of Guerrero, where the beach resort of Acapulco is located. 

According to Mexico's Ministry of Defense, Moreno Flores was caught Sunday in Mexico City's Tlalpan District. His capture is particularly important because Moreno is allegedly tied to the Sinaloa Cartel led by Joaquin "El Chapo" (Shorty) Guzman, Mexico's most wanted man. 

Guzman, who remains a fugitive, commands such a vast international drug trafficking network and his profits from the illicit trade are so big that he made Forbes Magazine's list of the world's most powerful. He appeared at number 60 on last year's list with an estimated fortune of $1 billion. The magazine calls him "the biggest drug lord ever." 

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration is offering a $5 million reward for information leading to the capture of Guzman. 

Mexico's top drug kingpin lord, who's reportedly 54, was captured in Guatemala in 1993, but escaped eight years later. 

Officials say Moreno Flores, who was considered one of Guzman's lieutenants, did business with drug traffickers from Costa Rica and Guatemala from his base of operations in Chilpancingo, capital of the state of Guerrero. 

From Chilpancingo, Moreno Flores shipped the drugs (mainly cocaine) to the United States by land. "The Fever" was also allegedly in charge of the cultivation, harvesting and distribution of marijuana in the fertile mountain region of Guerrero state.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who has a nickname that sounds like a medical symptom?
Guess: Jose Carlos Moreno Flores
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his nickname?
Guess: The Fever
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he do for a living?
Guess: A drug lord
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened to him
Guess: He was caught.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By whom?
Guess: Ministry of Defense
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: In Mexico City's Tlalpan District
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why is this arrest so important?
Guess: Because he is tied to the Sinaloa Cartel.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who runs that group?
Guess: Joaquin "El Chapo" (Shorty) Guzman
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he bad?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How do you know?
Guess: He is Mexico's most wanted man.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Have they caught him?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he powerful?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who thinks he is powerful?
Guess: Forbes Magazine
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they say how powerful he is?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And...how much?
Guess: Number 60 on last year's list.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much is he worth?
Guess: Estimated at $1 billion.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is anyone looking for him?

Yes