Here's a short story:

Political parties in the United States are mostly dominated by a two-party system. However, the United States Constitution has always been silent on the issue of political parties; at the time it was signed in 1787, there were no parties in the nation. Indeed, no nation in the world had voter-based political parties. The need to win popular support in a republic led to the American invention of voter-based political parties in the 1790s. Americans were especially innovative in devising new campaign techniques that linked public opinion with public policy through the party. 

Political scientists and historians have divided the development of America's two-party system into five eras. The first two-party system consisted of the Federalist Party, who supported the ratification of the Constitution, and the Democratic-Republican Party or the Anti-Federalists, who opposed the powerful central government, among others, that the Constitution established when it took effect in 1789. 

The modern two-party system consists of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Several third parties also operate in the U.S., and from time to time elect someone to local office. The largest third party since the 1980s is the Libertarian Party. 

The United States Constitution Is silent on the subject of political parties. The Founding Fathers did not originally intend for American politics to be partisan. In Federalist Papers No. 9 and No. 10, Alexander Hamilton and James Madison, respectively, wrote specifically about the dangers of domestic political factions. In addition, the first President of the United States, George Washington, was not a member of any political party at the time of his election or throughout his tenure as president. Furthermore, he hoped that political parties would not be formed, fearing conflict and stagnation, as outlined in his Farewell Address. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Is the US Constitution quiet about political parties?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was it that the Founding Fathers didn't intend to happen?
Guess: merican politics to be partisan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who wrote about the dangers of these factions?
Guess: Alexander Hamilton and James Madison
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which president was not affiliated with any party?
Guess: George Washington
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he hope?
Guess: political parties would not be formed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he scared of?
Guess: conflict and stagnation
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he speak of this to an audience?
Guess: in his Farewell Address
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were there any parties when the Constitution was signed?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was that?
Guess: 1787
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did any nation in the world have voter based parties at that time?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What led the US to create such a thing?
Guess: win popular support
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Americans also create new campaign tactics?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did those tactics connect through the party?
Guess: public opinion with public policy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many eras did creating the two party system take to complete?
Guess: five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which party was against the central government?
Guess: Democratic-Republican Party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which party supported changing the Constitution?
Guess: Federalist Party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are today's two main parties?
Guess: Democratic Party and the Republican Party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And the biggest third party?
Guess: Libertarian Party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Do the third parties sometimes elect someone to local positions?

yes