Here's a short story:

Texas is the second largest state in the United States by both area and population. Geographically located in the South Central region of the country, Texas shares borders with the U.S. states of Louisiana to the east, Arkansas to the northeast, Oklahoma to the north, New Mexico to the west, and the Mexican states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas to the southwest, while the Gulf of Mexico is to the southeast. 

Houston is the most populous city in Texas and the fourth largest in the U.S., while San Antonio is the second most populous in the state and seventh largest in the U.S. Dallas–Fort Worth and Greater Houston are the fourth and fifth largest metropolitan statistical areas in the country, respectively. Other major cities include Austin, the second most populous state capital in the U.S., and El Paso. Texas is nicknamed "The Lone Star State" to signify its former status as an independent republic, and as a reminder of the state's struggle for independence from Mexico. The "Lone Star" can be found on the Texas state flag and on the Texan state seal. The origin of Texas's name is from the word "Tejas," which means "friends" in the Caddo language. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What's the second-largest state by area?
Guess: Texas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And by population?
Guess: second largest
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many US states does it border?
Guess: Four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And how many Mexican states?
Guess: Four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What body of water also borders it?
Guess: the Gulf of Mexico
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does its name mean?
Guess: friends"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what language?
Guess: the Caddo language.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's the state's nickname?
Guess: "The Lone Star State"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why is it called that?
Guess: to signify its former status
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Its status as what?
Guess: as an independent republic,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which US region is it in?
Guess: the South Central
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What state is to the west?
Guess: New Mexico
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Northeast?
Guess: Arkansas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: East?
Guess: Louisiana
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: North?
Guess: Oklahoma
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's the state capital?
Guess: Austin,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it also the largest city in the state?
Guess: No!
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is?
Guess: Houston
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How does it rank in the whole US?
Guess: fourth
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What's the second-largest city in the state?

San Antonio