Here's a short story:

On the third day of November, Ron and Pam went to the store. They wanted to get some food for a new recipe. It was late in the afternoon, but they wanted to eat the food soon at dinner. To save time they split the list in half. Ron was to get the pasta and tomato sauce, and Pam was to get the vegetables and juice. They went their separate ways in the store, and made plans to meet in the checkout line in half an hour. 

On her way to the fruit and vegetable section, Pam ran into her friend Tom. Tom had bought a pet bunny for his friend and wanted to buy it some food. He asked Pam what he needs to feed the bunny. Pam told him lettuce and carrots, so he put 5 heads of lettuce in his basket along with one bag of carrots. Tom said goodbye to Pam and went to the front of the store to buy his vegetables. Now it was time for Pam to pick out the vegetables she would buy for dinner. She wanted to make a salad, so she bought spinach, 2 big red tomatoes, a box of mushrooms, and 3 cucumbers. Pam then went to where they kept the juice and grabbed a big bottle of lemonade. 

Pam went to the front of the store and met Ron. They handed their items to the sales clerk so that they could buy them. The total cost of the food was 20 dollars. As a gift to Pam, Ron paid for the food and said happy birthday. As a gift he would be cooking her dinner. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what day did Ron and Pam go to the store?
Guess: the third day of November
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was it late in the afternoon?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did they want to do soon?
Guess: eat the food soon at dinner.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: to save time, how did they divide the list?
Guess: they split the list in half
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where were they supposed to meet?
Guess: the checkout line
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who did Pam run into?
Guess: her friend Tom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was he getting for his friend's bunny?
Guess: food.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did Pam know what type of food?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many heads of lettuce did Tom get?
Guess: Five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and how many bags of carrots?
Guess: one
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Pam want to make?
Guess: a salad
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many cucumbers did she get for it?
Guess: Three
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did she get anything else?
Guess: lemonade
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who did she go to the front of the store to meet?
Guess: Ron
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how much did they hand the clerk?
Guess: 20 dollars
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: who paid

Ron