Here's a short story:

The United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), also known as the Health Department, is a cabinet-level department of the U.S. federal government with the goal of protecting the health of all Americans and providing essential human services. Its motto is "Improving the health, safety, and well-being of America". Before the separate federal Department of Education was created in 1979, it was called the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW). 

The Federal Security Agency (FSA) was established on July 1, 1939, under the Reorganization Act of 1939, P.L. 76-19. The objective was to bring together in one agency all federal programs in the fields of health, education, and social security. The first Federal Security Administrator was Paul V. McNutt. 

The new agency originally consisted of the following major components: (1) Office of the Administrator, (2) Public Health Service (PHS), (3) Office of Education, (4) Civilian Conservation Corps, and (5) Social Security Board. 



Organizational Changes 

When the war ended, President Truman moved to "strengthen the arm of the federal government for better integration of services in the fields of health, education, and welfare." 

Unlike statutes authorizing the creation of other executive departments, the contents of Reorganization Plan No. 1 of 1953 were never properly codified within the United States Code, although Congress did codify a later statute ratifying the Plan. Today, the Plan is included as an appendix to Title 5 of the United States Code. The result is that HHS is the only executive department whose statutory foundation today rests on a confusing combination of several codified and uncodified statutes. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What was the HHS formerly called?
Guess: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW).
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did it change?
Guess: 1979
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What began that year?
Guess: Department of Education
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the HHS also called?
Guess: the Health Department,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it part of state governments?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it part of?
Guess: U.S. federal government
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of department is it?
Guess: cabinet-level
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it's purpose?
Guess: protecting the health of all Americans and providing essential human services.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does it have a motto
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the FSA started?
Guess: July 1, 1939
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was it started with?
Guess: the Reorganization Act of 1939
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does FSA stand for?
Guess: Federal Security Agency
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Programs in which sectors were being united?
Guess: health, education, and social security.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many components were there?
Guess: Five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the first?
Guess: Office of the Administrator
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was the first administrator?

Paul V. McNutt.