Here's a short story:

Our village carpenter , John Hill, came one day and made a dining table for my wife. He made it just the right size to fill the space between the two windows. When I got home that evening, John was drinking a cup of tea and writing out his bill for the job. 

My wife said to me quietly, "It's his ninth cup of tea today." But she said in a loud voice, "It is a beautiful table, dear, isn't it?" 

"I will decide about that when I see the bill, " I read: 

One dining table, 10 November, 1989. 

Cost of wood: $17.00 

Paint: $1.50 

Work: 8 hours ($1 an hour) $8.00 

Total: $36.50 

When I was looking at the bill, John said, "It's been a fine day, hasn't it? Quite sunny." "Yes," I said, "I'm glad it is only the 10thof November." 

"Me, too," said John. "You wait. It'll be a lot colder by the end of the month." 

"Yes, colder.... And more expensive! Dining tables will be $20 more expensive on November 30th, won't they, John?" John looked hard at me for half a minute. Was there a little smile in his two blue eyes? I gave his bill back to him. 

"If it isn't too much trouble, John," I said, "Please add it up again and you can forget the date." 

I paid him $26.50and he was happy to get it. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How much did he pay for the table?
Guess: $26.50
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the carpenter angry about that?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it less than he billed?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By how much?
Guess: $10.00
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was there an addition error?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did the carpenter mistakenly add to the priuce?
Guess: Too many man hours
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What day of the month was it?
Guess: The 10th
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did the man joke would be different at the end of the month?
Guess: $20 more expensive
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On which date?
Guess: on November 30th
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: If that were true, how much more would a table be on the 20th?
Guess: $10.00
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does the carpenter have green eyes?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color?
Guess: blue
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's the carpenter's name?
Guess: John Hill
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was the table for?
Guess: The wife
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why couldn't they just buy any table from a store?
Guess: They wanted it just the right size to fill the space between the two windows.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the husband come home in the afternoon?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many beverages did the worker partake in that day?
Guess: Nine
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much does the carpenter bill for labor?
Guess: $1 an hour
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What cost $17?
Guess: wood
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: And how much for the paint?

$1.50