Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Abu Yahya al-Libi, al Qaeda's No. 2 man, was killed in Pakistan on Monday, according to U.S. officials. 

Al-Libi's death was "another serious blow to core al Qaeda," White House spokesman Jay Carney said. 

Al-Libi, 49, was a well-regarded figure in jihadist circles and had emerged as one of the terrorist network's most important clerics and propagandists, appearing in countless videos in recent years. 

He was killed by a CIA drone strike, according to U.S. officials. Drone strikes remain a highly contentious issue between the United States and Pakistan. 

Who is Abu Yahya al-Libi? 

By most accounts, al-Libi was effectively al Qaeda's deputy leader. 

A Libyan citizen and an Islamic scholar, al-Libi bolstered his credibility within jihad groups after escaping from U.S. custody in Afghanistan in 2005. 

He became the public face of al Qaeda and used his religious training to justify the organization's actions. As one of the group's chief ideologues and propagandists, al-Libi appeared in numerous recruitment videos in which he cast himself as a sheikh with the legitimacy to issue fatwas. 

Other than his appearances in propaganda videos, it's unclear which plots against the West al-Libi was involved in. A wanted ad from the U.S. State Department described him as a "key motivator in the global jihadi movement," and said that "his messages convey a clear threat to U.S. persons or property worldwide." 

What does his death mean for al Qaeda? 

This is a "very serious blow" to al Qaeda, according to Noman Benotman, a former senior member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group who spent significant time with al-Libi in the 1990s. No one else within the group rivals his legitimacy as a religious scholar nor has the credibility in the Arab world to provide Islamic justifications for al Qaeda's global campaign of terrorism, he said.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: WHO WAS KILLED?
Guess: Abu Yahya al-Libi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHERE?
Guess: Pakistan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT DAY?
Guess: Monday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT RADICAL GROUP WAS HE A PART OF?
Guess: al Qaeda's
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: HOW OLD WAS HE?
Guess: 49
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT CIRCLE WAS HE A WELL REGARDED FIGURE OF?
Guess: jihadist circles
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: HOW WAS HE KILLED?
Guess: CIA drone strike
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHO IS GIVING THIS INFORMATION?
Guess: U.S. officials
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: BETWEEN WHAT TWO COUNTRIES DO DRONE STRIKES REMAIN A HIGHLY CONTENTIOUS ISSUE?
Guess: United States and Pakistan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT DID AL-LIBI DO FOR AL QAEDA/
Guess: al Qaeda's deputy leader
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHERE WAS HE A CITIZEN FROM?
Guess: Libyan citizen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHERE DID HE ESCAPE FROM IN 2005?
Guess: U.S. custody in Afghanistan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT DID HE USE TO JUSTIFY ORGANIZATION'S ACTIONS?
Guess: religious training
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT TYPE OF VIDEOS DID HE OFTEN APPEAR IN?
Guess: ecruitment videos
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: HOW DID A WANTED AD FROM THE US STATE DEPARTMENT DESCRIBE HIM AS?
Guess: "key motivator in the global jihadi movement,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: HOW DID THE US CONSIDER HIS MESSAGES?
Guess: a clear threat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHAT DOES HIS DEATH MEAN FOR AL QAEDA?
Guess: very serious blow" to al Qaeda
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHO SAID THAT?
Guess: Noman Benotman
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHO IS HE?
Guess: former senior member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: DID HE KNOW HIM PERSONALLY?
Guess: YES
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: HOW DID THEY KNOW EACH OTHER?
Guess: spent significant time with al-Libi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: WHAT YEAR DID THAT HAPPEN?

1990s