Here's a short story:

Allie was trying to choose which costume she would wear for Halloween. She did not want to dress up as a scary monster. She could go as an angel all in white or as a rabbit with a basket of eggs. She thought that wings would be too hard to make. Allie went to ask her mom if she had any eggs to go in her basket. Her mom said that the eggs might break and told her to use carrots instead. Allie looked in the refrigerator but there were no carrots. She took some spinach instead. Allie got an old pillow case out of the hall closet. She would use it to carry the candy she would get. Allie's little sister, Grace, was going as a princess dressed in pink. She had a shiny, silver purse on her arm. Allie took Grace by the hand and led her down the sidewalk. The first door they knocked on was answered by a woman dressed as witch with a tall, black hat on her head. The witch gave both of the girls some candied apples. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What was Allie trying to decide
Guess: which costume she would wear
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who gave the girls candied apples
Guess: the witch
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who went trick or treating with Allie
Guess: Grace
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Grace Allie's sister?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Allie decide to dress as
Guess: a rabbit
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Allie used a what to collect her candy
Guess: a pillow case
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color did Grace wear
Guess: pink
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why couldnt Allie use carrots
Guess: there weren't any
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did she bring instead
Guess: spinach
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Allie watch after Grace while they were trick or treating
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was Grace carrying

a purse