Here's a short story:

One of my friends Fred did very 1ittle work when he was a student. He spent more time drinking in bars than working in the library. Once, we had to take an important exam. The exam had a hundred questions. To each question, we had to write "Right" or "Wrong". The night before the exam, Fred was watching TV and drinking. He usua1ly worried a lot the night before the exam. But on that night he looked quite relaxed. He told me what he would do." It's very easy," he said to me, "There are a hundred questions and I have to get fifty right answers to pass the exam. I'll bring a coin with me and throw it to decide answers. I' m sure I'll get half the questions right in this way. "During the exam, Fred sat down and really threw the coin for half an hour when he was writing down his answers. Then he 1eft half an hour before the others. The next day he saw the teacher on the playground. "Good morning, Mr. Wu," he said, "Have you checked the papers? Have I passed?" The teacher 1ooked at him and smiled, "Ah, it's you, Fred. One moment, please." Then he put his hand into his pocket and took out a coin. He threw it into the air, caught it in his hand and looked at it , "I'm very sorry, Fred. You _ ." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is their friend?
Guess: Fred
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his vice?
Guess: drinking in bars
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where should he have been?
Guess: in the library
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Doing what?
Guess: working
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there a test?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: A significant one?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many options are there?
Guess: two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And questions in total?
Guess: a hundred
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he prepare for it?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he doing?
Guess: watching TV and drinking
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he nervous?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he going to bring?
Guess: a coin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

to decide answers