Here's a short story:

Guatemala, officially the Republic of Guatemala (), is a country in Central America bordered by Mexico to the north and west, the Pacific Ocean to the southwest, Belize to the northeast, the Caribbean to the east, Honduras to the east and El Salvador to the southeast. With an estimated population of around /1e6 round 1 million, it is the most populated state in Central America. Guatemala is a representative democracy; its capital and largest city is Nueva Guatemala de la Asunción, also known as Guatemala City. 

The territory of modern Guatemala once formed the core of the Maya civilization, which extended across Mesoamerica. Most of the country was conquered by the Spanish in the 16th century, becoming part of the viceroyalty of New Spain. Guatemala attained independence in 1821 as part of the Federal Republic of Central America, which dissolved in 1841. 

From the mid to late 19th century, Guatemala experienced chronic instability and civil strife. Beginning in the early 20th century, it was ruled by a series of dictators backed by the United Fruit Company and the United States government. In 1944, authoritarian leader Jorge Ubico was overthrown by a pro-democratic military coup, initiating a decade-long revolution that led to sweeping social and economic reforms. A U.S.-backed military coup in 1954 ended the revolution and installed a dictatorship. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What civilization did Guatemala contribute to?
Guess: Maya
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who are Guatemala's northern neighbors?
Guess: Belize
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about the east?
Guess: Caribbean
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do they have any other eastern neighbors?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who?
Guess: Honduras
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about the southeast?
Guess: El Salvador
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do a lot of people live there?
Guess: 1 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is their capital city large?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the Spanish name for the capital?
Guess: Nueva Guatemala de la Asunción
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What else is it called?
Guess: Guatemala City.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who conquered the country?
Guess: the Spanish
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did this happen?
Guess: 16th century,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened to the country after being conquered?
Guess: became part of the viceroyalty of New Spain.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they ever become independent?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: When?

1821