Here's a short story:

CHAPTER TEN. 

DANGERS, JOYS, TRIALS, AND MULTIPLICATION. 

"I'm going to the cliffs to-day, Williams," said Young one morning. "Will you come?" 

Williams was busy at the forge under the pleasant shade of the great banyan-tree. Resting his hammer on the anvil, he looked up. 

"No," he answered. "I can't go till I've finished this spade. It's the last bit of iron we have left that'll serve for such a purpose." 

"That's no reason why you should not let it lie till the afternoon or to-morrow." 

"True, but I've got another reason for pushing through with it. Isaac Martin says the want of a spade keeps him idle, and you know it's a pity to encourage idleness in a lazy fellow." 

"You are right. What is Martin about just now?" 

"Working at the big water-tank. It suits him, a heavy quiet sort of job with the pick, requiring no energy or thought,--only a sleepy sort o' perseverance, of which long-legged Isaac has plenty." 

"Come, now," returned Young, with a laugh. "I see you are getting jealous of Martin's superior intellect. But where are Quintal and McCoy?" 

"Diggin' in their gardens, I suppose. Leastwise, I heerd Mr Christian say to Mainmast he'd seen 'em go off in that direction. Mr Christian himself has gone to his old outlook aloft on the mountains. If he don't see a sail at last it won't be for want o' keepin' a bright look-out." 

The armourer smiled grimly as he thrust the edge of the half-formed spade into the fire, and began to blow his bellows.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was at the forge?
Guess: Williams
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who came to see him?
Guess: Young
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he want?
Guess: Williams to go with him
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: to where?
Guess: to the cliffs
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he go?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why not?

He had to finish the spade