Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has added his brother-in-law to a military board in a move analysts say paves the way for an heir, according to South Korea's state-sponsored Yonhap news agency. 

Kim Jong-il has named his brother-in-law Jang Song Thaek to a top military board. 

The addition of his kin to the powerful National Defense Commission also solidifies his standing, Yonhap said. 

Kim was reappointed Thursday as chairman of the military board in his first major public appearance since a reported stroke in August. His brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, is considered his right-hand man, according to Yonhap. 

Jang, who has been married to Kim's sister since 1972, currently serves as a director of the Workers' Party, Yonhap said. 

"Kim wants to keep the military in check and secure loyalty to both the military and the party," Cha Doo-hyeogn, a North Korea expert, told Yonhap. 

Kim also increased the number of members in the military agency to 13, from eight, Yonhap said. 

"Overall, the power of the National Defense Commission was strengthened," Seoul's Unification Ministry spokesman, Kim Ho-nyoun, told Yonhap in a briefing. 

There were no other major changes in the new parliament, which signifies that Kim, 67, is prepared to maintain the status quo as he readies someone to take over from him, analysts told Yonhap. 

Kim's recent health problems and long absence from public functions have prompted speculation on whether he is ready to groom an heir to the world's only communist dynasty. But the secretive nation shields its internal affairs from international scrutiny.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What kind of health problems has he been having?
Guess: he had a stroke
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he name to the top military board?
Guess: his brother-in-law
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his name?
Guess: Jang Song Thaek
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who does he consider to be his right hand man?
Guess: Jang Song Thaek
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long has Jang been married to Kim's sister?
Guess: 46 years today
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Jang
Guess: a director of the Workers' Party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were there any changes to the parliament?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people did he increase the agency with?
Guess: Five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How active is Kim in public functions?

not very