Here's a short story:

François Hollande, the newly-inaugurated President of France, may be as notable for what he has not done as for what he has. 

He has never held national elective office despite being at the center of French politics for more than a decade, and he has never been married despite a three-decade relationship and four children with Ségolène Royale, another of the country's top Socialist politicians. 

Hollande led the Socialist Party for 11 years and was leader when Royale ran unsuccessfully for president against Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007. 

Hollande and Royale split up a month before that election, and he is now seeing journalist Valérie Trierweiler, who appeared, smiling with him, as he celebrated his victory Sunday. 

He immediately spooked markets, and Germany, France's key ally in the European Union, with his victory speech. 

"Austerity can no longer be something that is inevitable," he said, apparently undercutting the belt-tightening that his predecessor and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have urged on European countries beset by debt. 

Hollande emerged as his party's candidate for president after the downfall of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who was once considered the Socialist favorite to defeat Sarkozy. 

But Strauss-Kahn was arrested in May 2011 after a New York hotel maid alleged that he tried to rape her. Charges against the former IMF chief were later dropped in the United States, but he has been warned he could be investigated in France over accusations he participated in a prostitution ring. 

But Hollande was not an accidental candidate despite the way he has come to power, one commentator said.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is the Newly inaugurated President of France?
Guess: François Hollande
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is he notable for not doing?
Guess: He has never held national elective office
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long has he lead the Socialist party?
Guess: for 11 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do the the Markets in Germany?
Guess: He immediately spooked them with his victory speech
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he say that undercut what his predicessor and the German Chancellor whated the EU countries to do?
Guess: "Austerity can no longer be something that is inevitable,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who's downfall lead to him emerging as his party's canidate?
Guess: Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who unsuccessfully ran for president against Nicolas Sarkozy?
Guess: Ségolène Royale
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long has Hollande been the center of French Politics?
Guess: for more than a decade
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Would he be considered an Accidental Canidate?

no