Here's a short story:

The New Zealand Herald is a daily newspaper published in Auckland, New Zealand, owned by New Zealand Media and Entertainment. It has the largest newspaper circulation of all newspapers in New Zealand, peaking at over 200,000 copies in 2006, although circulation of the daily "Herald" had declined to 144,157 copies on average by December 2014. Its main circulation area is the Auckland region. It is also delivered to much of the north of the North Island including Northland, Waikato and King Country. 

"The New Zealand Herald" was founded by William Chisholm Wilson, and first published on 13 November 1863. Wilson had been a partner with John Williamson in the "New Zealander", but left to start a rival daily newspaper as he saw a business opportunity with Auckland’s rapidly growing population. He had also split with Williamson because Wilson supported the war against the Māori (which the "Herald" termed "the native rebellion") while Williamson opposed it. The "Herald" also promoted a more constructive relationship between the North and South Islands. 

After the "New Zealander" closed in 1866 "The Daily Southern Cross" provided competition, particularly after Julius Vogel took a majority shareholding in 1868. "The Daily Southern Cross" was first published in 1843 by William Brown as "The Southern Cross" and had been a daily since 1862. Vogel sold out of the paper in 1873 and Alfred Horton bought it in 1876. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where is The New Sealand Herald published?
Guess: Auckland, New Zealand
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who founded it?
Guess: William Chisholm Wilson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who provided it competition afther the New Zealander closed in 1866?
Guess: "The Daily Southern Cross"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was The New Zealand Herald founded?
Guess: 1863
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many copies did it sell at it's peak of popularity?
Guess: 200,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did the Herald promote between the North and South Islands?
Guess: a more constructive relationship
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By December 2014 what had the circulation declined to?
Guess: 144,157
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What is it's main circulation Area?

Auckland region