Here's a short story:

Dave and John were playing catch in the living room. Rose told them that was dumb, but she did not stop them. She kept writing in her notebook. If they wanted to get in trouble, then they could. It was not her responsibility. 

Dave told John to go long. Dave did not have good aim and missed John's hands when he threw the ball. Instead he hit the lamp and knocked it over. He was glad he did not hit the dishes. Nor did he hit the cat. John was not glad that he hit the lamp, but was glad that the lamp was not broken. 

When John's dad came home, he was very happy that John came clean about the lamp even when it was not broken. After telling them off for playing inside, John's dad made them all a cake. The cake had lemon frosting, which was Dave's favorite. Rose cannot eat lemon, so she let Dave have her slice. He chose to take Rose's cake home to his Bro. Dave thanked her a lot. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who threw the ball?
Guess: Dave
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who to?
Guess: John
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were they playing?
Guess: the living room
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he catch it?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened?
Guess: he hit the lamp
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did anyone see them?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who else was in the living room?
Guess: Rose
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was she doing?
Guess: writing
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they do anything after playing?
Guess: they ate cake
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who made it?
Guess: John's dad
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What flavor?
Guess: lemon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was anything broken?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they all eat cake?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: Rose cannot eat lemon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who ate hers?

Dave's bro