Here's a short story:

The Caucasus or Caucasia is a region situated at the border of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, situated between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. It is home to the Caucasus Mountains, which contain Europe's highest mountain, Mount Elbrus, , located on the west of the Greater Caucasus mountain range. The Greater Caucasus acts as a natural barrier separating Europe from Southwest Asia, the latter including the Transcaucasus and Anatolia regions. 

The Caucasus region is separated between northern and southern partsthe North Caucasus and Transcaucasus, respectively. The Greater Caucasus range in the north is within the Russian Federation, while the Lesser Caucasus to the south is divided between several independent states, namely Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. The Transcaucasus extends eastwards to the Caspian Sea and northwestern Iran, and extends westwards into northeastern Turkey. 

The region is known for its linguistic diversity: aside from Indo-European and Turkic languages, the Kartvelian, Northwest Caucasian, and Northeast Caucasian families are indigenous to the area. 

Pliny the Elder's "Natural History" (77–79 AD) derives the name of the Caucasus from Scythian "kroy-khasis" ("ice-shining, white with snow"). German linguist Paul Kretschmer notes that the Latvian word "Kruvesis" also means "ice". 

In the "Tale of Past Years" (1113 AD), it is stated that Old East Slavic Кавкасийскыѣ горы ("Kavkasijskyě gory") came from Ancient Greek Καύκασος ("Kafkasos"), which, according to M. A. Yuyukin, is a compound word that can be interpreted as the "Seagull's Mountain" (καύ-: καύαξ, καύηξ, ηκος ο, κήξ, κηϋξ "a kind of seagull" + the reconstructed *κάσος η "mountain" or "rock" richly attested both in place and personal names.) (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what seas is the area in between?
Guess: Black Sea and the Caspian Sea
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the Europe's highest mountain?
Guess: Mount Elbrus
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where is it located?
Guess: Greater Caucasus mountain range
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: in what region?
Guess: west
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it known for?
Guess: linguistic diversity
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does the greater Caucasus seperate?
Guess: Europe from Southwest Asia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is the name dervived from?
Guess: Scythian "kroy-khasis"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: meaning?
Guess: ice-shining, white with snow
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: anything else?
Guess: ice
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and who has noted that?
Guess: Pliny the Elder's "Natural History"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What languages are spoken here?
Guess: Turkic languages
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: any other?
Guess: Indo-European
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and who is indigenous to the area?
Guess: Northeast Caucasian families
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where would you find Transcaucasus?

southern part