Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- World number three Roger Federer exited the Monte Carlo Masters at the quarterfinals stage to Austrian Jurgen Melzer Friday. 

Melzer was securing his first victory over the 16-time grand slam champion as he ran out a 6-4 6-4 winner at the prestigious clay court event. 

It was the earliest defeat for Federer in a tournament this year, ending his hopes of claiming the Monte Carlo title for the first time after being beaten three times in the final by Rafael Nadal. 

He has drawn blank since claiming the ATP season-opener in Doha, Qatar. 

Federer had breezed to the last eight, but was always struggling against Melzer in blustery conditions. 

Melzer broke for 3-2 in the opening set after an errant Federer forehand and held on to close it out. 

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The second followed a similar pattern, with Federer unable to capitalize on his seven break points in the match as the seventh seed went through. 

Melzer was delighted to finally get past his old nemesis in such convincing fashion. 

"He beat me three times last year and I didn't even win a set," he told AFP. 

"But many things went well for me, my shots worked well. When he had break points I was calm and served well. 

"I did well on the big points and played my game." 

Federer shrugged off his defeat as he now takes a two-week break before the Madrid Masters in his build-up to the French Open next month.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who beat Federer at the quarterfinals
Guess: Melzer
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many times has he beat him so far?

Twice