Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XX—LANDING ON CAVE ISLAND 

At the end of a week Dave was more worried than ever. Each day he and his chums went down to the shipping offices and each day returned to the hotel disappointed. Not a word had been heard concerning the missing vessel and those on board. 

The _Golden Eagle_ was all ready to sail on her return trip to the United States, but Phil told Captain Sanders to wait. 

“Perhaps we’ll hear to-day,” he said, and this was repeated day after day. 

It was very warm and the boys were glad they had brought along some thin clothing. They scarcely knew what to do with themselves, and Dave was particularly sober. 

“I suppose Mr. Wadsworth and the rest are waiting to hear from me,” he said to his chums. “But what is the use of sending a message when I haven’t anything to say?” 

Another Sunday passed, and on Monday the boys visited the _Golden Eagle_, and then went with Captain Sanders to the nearest shipping office. 

“Something is going on!” cried the senator’s son, as he noticed an unusual crowd congregated. “Must be news of some sort.” 

“Let us find out what it is!” returned our hero, quickly. 

“The _Emma Brower_ has been heard from,” said a man, standing near. “That’s the vessel that was missing, don’t you know,” he added. 

“What of her?” asked Dave. 

“Went down in that terrible storm we had about ten days ago.” 

“Down!” gasped all of the boys, while Captain Sanders looked the concern he felt.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: was it warm out?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was wearing thin clothes?
Guess: Dave and Phil
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was Dave drunk or sober?
Guess: Sober
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was he worried?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was he worried about?
Guess: A missing vessel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was the captain of the Golden Eagle?
Guess: Sanders
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what happened to The Emma Brower?
Guess: It sank
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: had it been missing?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: how long ago did it sink?

Ten days ago