Here's a short story:

A guy with brown hair was named Josh. His daughter was Maggie and her favorite activity was riding her yellow bike. Sometimes she would put a card in the spokes of the wheel. This made her bike sound much faster than it was going. Once when she was riding down a hill, she went too fast and hit a trashcan. Other than having a bad smell, she was ok but was afraid to tell her father what had happened. So she told a lie. When she looked her father in the eye, he saw that there was more to the story. When he found out Maggie was not being truthful, he had to give her a spanking. He told her that telling lies is wrong, but he loves her. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is Maggie's father?
Guess: Josh
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what color hair did he have?
Guess: brown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Maggie like to do?
Guess: ride her bike
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color was it?
Guess: yellow
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what would she place in the wheel?
Guess: a card
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why?
Guess: to make the bike sound faster
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why did Josh have to punish her?
Guess: Maggie had lied
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: about what?
Guess: running into a trashcan with her bike
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was she hurt?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why did she run into it?
Guess: she was going too fast
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how did Josh know she was lying
Guess: he could tell when she looked him in the eye
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: how did he punish her?

spanking