Here's a short story:

Ben Jones was walking home from school one day when he saw a black cat. It was walking across the srteet in front of him.Ben stopped, turned around, and walked down a different srteet to go home. Why did he do that? "It's unlucky when a black cat crossed the street in front of you," says Ben, "I did not want to walk down that street!" Many people think that some things bring bad luck or good luck. For example, some people think that 13 is an unlucky number. They never invite 13 people to a party. "I never walk under a ladder ," says Ben. "And I never open an umbrella inside the house. They both bring bad luck." And what brings good luck? "We have a horseshoe over the front door of our house for good luck," says Ben."And when I find a peney on the ground, I always pick it up. That brings me good luck all day!" (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Did a dog walk in front of Ben?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did?
Guess: a cat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it orange?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color was it?
Guess: black
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Ben do?
Guess: went another way
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does he travel under ladders?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What good things are there?
Guess: horseshoes and pennies
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: When did he see the cat?

walking home from school