Here's a short story:

Joseph really felt very happy. When he arrived at his seat in the classroom that morning, he found an invitation on his desk. It was from several of his classmates asking him to join them on a camping trip. This was the first time he was asked to join in an out-of school activity. Why were they asking him now? Nobody seemed to like him. In fact, he had been so lonely _ . As a result, he had put on a lot of weight, and this gave the kids something more to make fun of him. Celina, who was standing near Joseph when he read the invitation, went out quickly to tell the others that the trick had worked. Everyone was pleased that Joseph thought that was true. But there was no camping trip. The whole thing was made up. At first, Celina thought it was fun. But later, when Joseph told her that he was going to buy a sleeping bag with his savings, Celina had a second idea. She knew that Joseph's family had little money, and she hated to see him spend his savings on something he would never use. Celina also hated to tell Joseph the truth. Her close friends would be angry with her. What could she do now? (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What was on the desk?
Guess: An invitation.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: From whom?
Guess: Several of his classmates.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did his family have a lot of money?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was he invited to go?
Guess: On a camping trip.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they usually ask him to go places?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he well liked?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the invite real?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Celina think it was funny?
Guess: At first.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did she think it was no longer fun?
Guess: Joseph told her that he was going to buy a sleeping bag.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Joseph lonely?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was standing near when he got to his desk?
Guess: Celina.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did she go?
Guess: Out.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

To tell them that the trick had worked.