Here's a short story:

Tokelau () is a New Zealand territory in the southern Pacific Ocean that consists of three tropical coral atolls (from the northwest, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo), with a combined land area of and a population of approximately 1,500. Its capital rotates yearly between the three atolls. Tokelau lies north of the Samoan Islands, Swains Island being the nearest, east of Tuvalu, south of the Phoenix Islands, southwest of the more distant Line Islands, and northwest of the Cook Islands. Until 1976, the official name was Tokelau Islands. 

With the fourth smallest population of any sovereign state or dependency on Earth, Tokelau is able to be a leader in renewable energy, being the first 100% solar powered nation in the world. Tokelau is a free and democratic nation with elections every three years. All run as independents; there are no political parties in Tokelau. 

The most spoken language in Tokelau is Tokelauan, at 93.5%. A dependent territory of New Zealand, it is sometimes referred to by its older colonial name, the Union Islands. In 2007, the United Nations General Assembly designated Tokelau a non-self-governing territory. However, Tokelau is officially referred to as a nation by both the New Zealand government and the Tokelauan government. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what language is spoken most?
Guess: Tokelauan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what percentage speak it?
Guess: 93.5%.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: are there different political parties there?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was the official name in the past?
Guess: Tokelau Islands.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: Until 1976
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is it highly populated?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is the population?
Guess: approximately 1,500
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is it an independant country?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: under whose territory is it?
Guess: New Zealand,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many atolls does it constitute?
Guess: three
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what are they?
Guess: Tokelau, Swains Island and Tuvalu,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is it a world leader in?
Guess: renewable energy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: how often are elections held?

every three years