Here's a short story:

Abidjan, Ivory Coast (CNN) -- The European Union announced a recovery package of 180 million euros for the Ivory Coast on Tuesday as residents of the African nation attempted to adjust to life with a clear leader and relative stability after months of bloodshed. 

Forces arrested former President Laurent Gbagbo after storming his residence on Monday. Gbagbo defied calls to step down after an electoral commission declared he lost a presidential election in November to Alassane Ouattara. Ouattara has been recognized internationally as the legitimate winner. 

A violent power struggle followed the standoff, with supporters loyal to both sides taking to the streets in protests since December. Hundreds have been killed, according to the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross. 

Andris Piebalgs, EU commissioner for development, announced the recovery package on Tuesday. 

"We will stand by Ivory Coast and its people by immediately starting to work with the government of President Ouattara to support him in getting the country on the right track towards reconciliation, democracy, economic recovery and sustainable development," he said. 

The funding will provide support to ensure basic needs for citizens such as health, water, sanitation and to support the agricultural sector, Piebalgs said in a statement. It also will clear the Ivory Coast's debt accumulated through the European Investment Bank. 

Top military brass pledged their support to Ouattara in a ceremony Tuesday at a hotel in Abdijan. Gen. Phillipe Mangou, Gbagbo's former army chief of staff, said on state television that the generals were received by Ouattara and given orders to take measures to restore order in the country.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who won the election?
Guess: Alassane Ouattara
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: November
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he take office immediately?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was this because of his predecessor?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what is his name?

Laurent Gbagbo