Here's a short story:

CHAPTER VIII. 

THE STEALING OF THE HORSES. 

"Go slow, men," came softly from Gilroy. "You know what kind of a man Leeson is." 

"Reckon I do know," came in a growl from Fetter. "And I've got an account to settle with him, too." 

"I'm pretty certain the boy is here," went on the leader. "But we must make sure if the others are here too, or if they have ridden off to the fort. If they have gone to the fort----" 

"Hist!" came in warning from Potts. "You're talking too much. I've heard that this Leeson sleeps with his ears wide open." 

"He does," grumbled Fetter; and then the three desperadoes relapsed into silence. 

They were advancing upon the cabin from the rear, and each held a ready pistol in his hand, while his rifle was slung over his back. They had seen the boys and Benson head for the trapper's home while it was still light and they were on a high cliff; but darkness had closed in on the scene, and they had come up to the spot in ignorance of what had followed. 

Tiptoeing their way they reached the lean-to where the horses had been stabled, and with caution Gilroy went inside. By feeling the animals he soon learned that three had been in use but a few hours before, while the fourth was cool and comfortable. 

"Their horses are here," he announced. "And a fourth is here, too." 

"That's Leeson's," answered Fetter. "But I thought he had two or three."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What were they coming up on?
Guess: the cabin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: From what side?
Guess: the rear
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was in their hands?
Guess: pistol
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was on their backs?
Guess: rifle
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who were they looking for?
Guess: Leeson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he have anyone with him?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who?
Guess: a boy.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were the horses?
Guess: the lean-to
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who went inside?
Guess: Gilroy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do to the animals?
Guess: Felt them.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did that tell him?
Guess: They had been in use.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many?
Guess: three
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: For how long?
Guess: a few hours
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Had any not been used?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many?
Guess: One.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Whose horse was it?

Leeson's