Here's a short story:

He was a hero that saved two children from the jaws of a cougar . Standing barely 1.7 meters, the 22-year-old with black-frame glasses might pass more for a Chinese Harry Potter. Yet Shen Huigang is now getting recognition for his bravery in fighting off a cougar on Vancouver Island, Canada, during a family outing. Shen, also known as Ian, was then an exchange student. With him was a friend, Myles Hagar, and Hagar's two grandchildren. Silently and suddenly a cougar appeared out of nowhere. By the time they spotted the cat, it already had the head of 18-month-old Julien in its mouth. 

"At first, my brain was nothing but blank," Shen recalled. "But I believed I could get the child back." He gestured as if he were ready for a fight, and tried to scare the beast off with his bag. Hearing the noise Shen made, the animal dropped the baby and Hagar rushed to grab his grandson. But the animal didn't run, instead turned toward 3-year-old Iris standing beside Shen. "Had Ian not been there, shouting at the cougar, remaining calm and standing firm, it would certainly have attacked Iris." Hagar recalled. 

They chased the animal back into the woods. "We moved slowly to our vehicle as we waved our fists and bags, pretending to wrestle it," Shen said. "The vehicle wasn't far away but it felt like it took us a century to travel the short journey." As Hagar drove for help, Shen held the heavily-bleeding boy in the passenger seat and calmly kept him awake by hugging and kissing him in case he would go into a coma . The boy was flown to a hospital nearby. Doctors later said his little skull had been punctured through to his brain in two places. Luckily, Julien made a full recovery. 

"Any hesitation, even a second delay, would have resulted in certain death for Julien, but Ian was there..." Hagar said. Following the incident, the story appeared on Canadian TV networks in every city, and in many small town newspapers---plus many US Internet news sites. The Royal Canadian Humane Association planned to give Shen a Canada Bravery Award, but it couldn't reach him because he had returned to China. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How old is Shen?
Guess: 22
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And how tall?
Guess: 1.7 meters
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is he likened to?
Guess: a Chinese Harry Potter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he save?
Guess: Julien
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Along with who?
Guess: Iris
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How old was she?
Guess: Three
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Shen save them from?
Guess: cougar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was Julien bitten?
Guess: head
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he survive?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many times was his skull punctured?
Guess: two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How old was he at the time of the attack?

18 months