Here's a short story:

Port-Au-Prince, Haiti (CNN) -- Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier, Haiti's former dictator, returned unexpectedly Sunday to the country after some 25 years in exile, adding uncertainty into an already turbulent situation. 

Duvalier remained huddled inside his hotel Monday, as the reasons behind his visit and what he hoped to accomplish remained unclear. 

A scheduled press conference at his hotel was canceled at the last minute because the hotel was not equipped to handle the crowd, and no other location could be found, Henry Robert Sterlin, a Duvalier associate, told reporters. 

Sterlin said that the former dictator had returned because he was moved by the anniversary of last year's tragic earthquake, and because he missed his homeland. 

The associate said he did not know how long Duvalier was staying, and added that he was not afraid to come back. 

He arrived in the Haitian capital as the nation is grappling with a political crisis, sparked by fraud allegations in a presidential election. 

Duvalier, wearing a dark suit and tie, greeted supporters at the busy Port-au-Prince airport. He was traveling with his wife. 

The Duvalier family ruled Haiti for three decades starting in 1957, when Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier was elected president. He later declared himself president for life. When he died in 1971, he was succeeded by his 19-year-old son, Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier. 

The younger Duvalier held onto power for 15 years before a revolt forced him to flee the country. Widely accused of corruption, Duvalier has been living in France. 

Upon arriving in Haiti, the former dictator and his wife went to the Karibe Hotel, according to Ryan Flaherty, head of security for Project Medishare. Duvalier's wife was swarmed by people as she approached the hotel and said that her husband had decided to return to Haiti some time ago, Flaherty reported.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who had a mysterious return to Haiti?
Guess: Haiti's former dictator
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's his name?
Guess: Jean-Claude  Duvalier
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What day did he arrive?
Guess: Sunday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why'd he cancel his press meeting?
Guess: the hotel was not equipped to handle the crowd,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: They couldn't find anyplace else to do it?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long had he been away?
Guess: 25 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he scared to be back?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who went with him to Haiti?
Guess: His wife
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did his reign begin?
Guess: 1957
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was the leader before him?
Guess: Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long did Baby Doc lead?
Guess: 15 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he overthrown?
Guess: No, he fled
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he flee to?
Guess: France
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he greet people when he arrived?
Guess: the airport.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What hotel did he go to?
Guess: the Karibe Hotel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Says who?

head of security for Project Medishare