Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XXVII 

STARTLING NEWS 

It was noon on the day after Wandle's flight, and Jernyngham was sitting with his friends in a room of the Leslie homestead when Muriel, looking out of the window, saw Prescott's hired man ride up at a gallop. His haste and his anxious expression when he dismounted alarmed her, but her companions had not noticed him, and she waited, listening to the murmur of voices that presently reached her from an adjoining room. They ceased in a few minutes, she saw the man ride away as fast as he had come, and soon afterward Leslie opened the door. He was a talkative person and looked as if he had something of importance to relate. 

"Svendsen has been over to ask if I saw Prescott when I was in at the settlement yesterday," he said. "When I told him that I hadn't, he seemed mighty disturbed." 

Muriel's heart throbbed painfully, but she waited for one of the others to speak, and Jernyngham, laying down his paper, glanced up sharply. 

"Why?" he asked. 

This was all the encouragement Leslie needed. 

"I'll tell you, so far as I've got the hang of the thing; I thought you'd like to know. It seems Prescott has been away somewhere for a few days and should have got home last night. He came in on the train in the evening, and Harper drove him out and dropped him at Wandle's trail; Prescott said he wanted to see the man. Well, he didn't get home, and Svendsen, who'd been to Harper's this morning, found Wandle gone and three of his horses missing. Then he found out from Watson, who stayed at the hotel last night, that Curtis rode in on a played-out horse before it was light, and kept the night operator busy for a while with the wires. Seems to me the thing has a curious look."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who took a flight?
Guess: Wandle.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time did he sit with friends the next day?
Guess: Noon.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Leslie like to chat?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose heart hurt?
Guess: Muriel's.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who's been away for awhile?
Guess: Prescot.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what room did the friends chat?
Guess: At the Leslie homestead.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did the hired man travel?
Guess: On a horse.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did all the friends see him arrive?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the hired man hang around?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who opened the door?
Guess: Leslie.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he look anxious?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who hadn't been seen the day before?
Guess: Prescott.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was worried about that?
Guess: Svendsen.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who put their reading down?
Guess: Jernyngham.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was Prescott supposed to return?
Guess: Last night.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How was he traveling?
Guess: Train.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he get left at?
Guess: Wandle's trail.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time of day?
Guess: Evening.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was also missing?
Guess: Horses.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who spent the night at a paid room?

Watson.