Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Wednesday night's CNN debate lands at a critical moment in the Republican race. 

This season, each debate has set the tone for the primary to follow. Newt Gingrich's savaging of the media helped propel him to victory in South Carolina. Mitt Romney's savaging of Gingrich helped him to clinch Florida. The current uncertainty about the race, and the extraordinary elasticity in the polls, is partly due to the fact that we haven't had a debate for a whole month. 

It's important, then, for each of the candidates to make a powerful impression in this last confrontation before Arizona and Michigan vote on February 28. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich will compete over who is the most conservative, and Ron Paul will push his unique brand of libertarianism. Same old, same old. But we might see something new from Mitt Romney: a glimmer of humanity. 

The latest CNN/Time/ORC International Poll shows that Santorum is closing the gap on Romney in Arizona, but it's probably in Michigan that he stands the best chance of scoring an upset. A week ago, polls put Santorum as much as 10 points ahead in the Great Lakes State. But now they call it a statistical dead heat between him and Romney. 

So it would serve Santorum well to hit Mitt hard in the debate. This is Rick's natural style -- he gets a thrill out of counting the flaws of his opponents. But Santorum also probably recognizes that the only way he'll win Michigan is by reminding voters of the doubts that they have about Romney's conservatism. That's what he's been doing in the western part of the state all this week, where he has hit out repeatedly at Romney's "well-oiled weathervane" stance on issues like abortion and Iran.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: On what night was the debate?
Guess: Wednesday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: On what network?

CNN