Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Marc Marquez announced himself as motorcycling's bright new hope when he became the youngest rider to win a top-level race in Sunday's inaugural Grand Prix of the Americas in Texas. 

The 20-year-old had been the youngest pole sitter when he topped Saturday's qualifying, and he followed that up by heading off Honda Repsol teammate Dani Pedrosa in the second event of the new MotoGP season. 

World champion Jorge Lorenzo, who won the opening race in Qatar, came home third for Yamaha to be tied on points with his young compatriot at the top of the standings ahead of their home Spanish Grand Prix next month. 

"To be third in my first race in Qatar was a dream and now, to take the victory in the second race -- that's even better!" said Marquez, who won the Moto2 championship last year. 

"The race was quite hard, especially in terms of physical condition towards the end. I had some problems with the front that I hadn't had in practice, but even with that I was able to push and keep up a constant rhythm -- not so fast, but enough. 

"So I'm very happy with that and I want to say thanks to all of my team. Without them this would not have been possible." 

Britain's Cal Crutchlow was fourth on a Monster Tech 3 Yamaha ahead of Germany's Stefan Bradl and Italy's seven-time world champion Valentino Rossi -- back at Yamaha after two disappointing years with Ducati. 

Rossi's replacement at Ducati, Andrea Dovizioso, was seventh ahead of Spain's Alvaro Bautista, veteran American Nicky Hayden and another Italian, Andrea Iannone.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How old is Marc Marquez?
Guess: 20
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How does he compare to the other pole sitters?
Guess: he's younger
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is his teammate?
Guess: Dani Pedrosa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What team are they on?
Guess: Honda Repsol
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is he the youngest to win in Sunda's race?
Guess: a top level race
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the name of the event on Sunday?
Guess: Grand Prix of the Americas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Was it the first one?

yes