Here's a short story:

Canada is famous for its winter lifestyle, for the season lasts half the year there. A great example of this is the Quebec Winter Carnival . Quebec is an old city with beautiful historic building, and many agree that winter is the best time to visit. The city comes alive in the snow, especially during the winter festival. People who visit the cold city can find tons of things to do that will make winter seem perfect. The Carnival has a magical ice palace made with 9,000 tons of snow, a boat race on the St. Lawrence River, and two night parades with funny people and colorful cars. Other interesting things include a 122-meter ice slide, and a large football game. There is also an exciting dogsled race that runs through six kilometers of the city's streets. With more than 20 teams in the game, the dogsled race is noisy, fun and full of great cheer. Even better, artists from around the world come to enter the snow sculpture competition. It is amazing how these artists can bring snow to life. The Quebec Winter Carnival has everything for the whole family and more. It is surely a great way to experience winter at its fullest. Another famous winter festival is on the other side of the world in China. Known as the City of Ice, Harbin is the capital city of Heilongjiang Province, which is next to Siberia. In the winter, it is very cold, and temperatures there can drop to 30degC below zero. Even so, the cold weather makes the city the right place for the Harbin International Ice and Snow Festival. The festival is held every year. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Is Quebec a newer city?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is summer the best time to visit?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long is the dog run?
Guess: 6 kilos
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there another famous gathering that's similar?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is it?
Guess: China.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it called?
Guess: City of Ice,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How long does the cold last in the Canadian town?

half the year