Here's a short story:

How much sleep do we need? We are all different. Some people need only three hours of sleep a night. Others need ten hours of sleep a night. Most Americans sleep an average of seven to eight hours a night. After the age of fifty the average sleep time goes down to 6.5 hours a night. Most people have a bad night when they can not sleep. About one in three Americans has a problem with sleep. Many of these people can not fall sleep. This problem is called insomnia. This is not a new problem. Many famous people in history had insomnia. Some of these people had special ideas to another to make them sleep. Benjaming Franklin, the famous stateman and inventor ,had four beds. He moved from one to another to fall asleep. King Lousis XIV of France had 13 beds and hoped that he could fall asleep in one of them. Mark Twain, the famous American writer, had a different way. He lay on his side on the end of the bed! (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How many hours of sleep do Americans average?
Guess: seven to eight hours
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: does everyone sleep this amount?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do you sleep more the older you get?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: less?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how much?
Guess: 6.5 hours
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: At what age does that happen?
Guess: After the age of fifty
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do americans have sleep problems?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: how many?

one in three Americans