Here's a short story:

The Federated States of Micronesia (; abbreviated FSM and also known simply as Micronesia) is an independent sovereign island nation and a United States associated state consisting of four states from west to east, Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosraethat are spread across the Western Pacific Ocean. Together, the states comprise around 607 islands (a combined land area of approximately ) that cover a longitudinal distance of almost just north of the equator. They lie northeast of New Guinea, south of Guam and the Marianas, west of Nauru and the Marshall Islands, east of Palau and the Philippines, about north of eastern Australia and some southwest of the main islands of Hawaii. 

While the FSM's total land area is quite small, it occupies more than of the Pacific Ocean, giving the country the 14th largest Exclusive Economic Zone in the world. The capital is Palikir, located on Pohnpei Island, while the largest city is Weno, located in the Chuuk Atoll. 

Each of its four states is centered on one or more main high islands, and all but Kosrae include numerous outlying atolls. The Federated States of Micronesia is spread across part of the Caroline Islands in the wider region of Micronesia, which consists of thousands of small islands divided among several countries. The term "Micronesia" may refer to the Federated States or to the region as a whole. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what is the capital of FSM?
Guess: Palikir
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: which island is that on?
Guess: Pohnpei Island
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what does FSM stand for?
Guess: The Federated States of Micronesia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many states does it have?
Guess: four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: does it occupy part of the Caroline islands?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is FSM a part of another country or is it sovereign?
Guess: an independent sovereign island nation
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what are the names of the four states?
Guess: Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosraethat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: which of those is their largest city on?

Chuuk