Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XV: Blacky Does A Little Looking About 

Do not take the word of others That things are or are not so When there is a chance that you may Find out for yourself and know. --Blacky the Crow. 

Blacky the Crow is a shrewd fellow. He is one of the smartest and shrewdest of all the little people in the Green Forest and on the Green Meadows. Everybody knows it. And because of this, all his neighbors have a great deal of respect for him, despite his mischievous ways. 

Of course, Blacky had noticed that Johnny Chuck had dug his house deeper than usual and had stuffed himself until he was fatter than ever before. He had noticed that Jerry Muskrat was making the walls of his house thicker than in other years, and that Paddy the Beaver was doing the same thing to his house. You know there is very little that escapes the sharp eyes of Blacky the Crow. 

He had guessed what these things meant. "They think we are going to have a long, hard, cold winter," muttered Blacky to himself. "Perhaps they know, but I want to see some signs of it for myself. They may be only guessing. Anybody can do that, and one guess is as good as another." 

Then he found Mr. and Mrs. Quack, the Mallard Ducks, and their children in the pond of Paddy the Beaver and remembered that they never had come down from their home in the Far North as early in the fall as this. Mrs. Quack explained that Jack Frost had already started south, and so they had started earlier to keep well ahead of him.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where does the bird live?
Guess: Green Forest and on the Green Meadows
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is this story true?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What were the names of the fowl?
Guess: Mr. and Mrs. Quack
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they have kids?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who dug his home?
Guess: Johnny Chuck
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he skinny?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who had good eyesight?
Guess: Blacky the Crow.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who lived on the pond?
Guess: Paddy the Beaver
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the birds fly to Canada?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did they fly?
Guess: south
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who made thick barriers to the outside?
Guess: Jerry Muskrat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did the same?
Guess: Paddy the Beaver
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who did folks admire?

Black Crow.