Here's a short story:

Baltimore is the largest city in the U.S. state of Maryland, and the 29th-most populous city in the country. 

Baltimore was established by the Constitution of Maryland and is not part of any county. With a population of 621,849 in 2015, Baltimore is the largest independent city in the United States. As of 2016, the population of the Baltimore metropolitan area was estimated to be just under 2.8 million, making it the 21st largest metropolitan area in the country. Baltimore is also part of the Washington-Baltimore combined statistical area (CSA), the fourth largest CSA in the nation with a calculated 2016 population of 9,665,892. 

Founded in 1729, Baltimore is the second-largest seaport in the Mid-Atlantic. The city's Inner Harbor was once the second leading port of entry for immigrants to the United States and a major manufacturing center. After a decline in major manufacturing, industrialization, and rail transportation, Baltimore shifted to a service-oriented economy, with Johns Hopkins Hospital (founded 1889) and Johns Hopkins University (founded 1876), now the city's top two employers. 

With hundreds of identified districts, Baltimore has been dubbed a "city of neighborhoods." Famous residents have included writers Edgar Allan Poe, Edith Hamilton, Frederick Douglass, and H.L. Mencken; jazz musician James "Eubie" Blake; singer Billie Holiday; actor and filmmaker John Waters; and baseball player Babe Ruth. In the War of 1812, Francis Scott Key wrote "The Star-Spangled Banner", which later became the American national anthem, in Baltimore. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what's the largest city in maryland?
Guess: Baltimore
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what's the population

just under 2.8 million