Here's a short story:

Joe was an old man. The 75-year-old lived very happily in a village and had a beautiful family. Joe had four grandchildren, and they visited him during their holidays. During one vacation, Joe was preparing his home for the kids: cleaning and buying their favorite foods. After he finished working, he realized he lost his favorite watch. The watch was a gift from his wife when their first child was born. Joe loved the watch very much, especially after his wife's death. He was very upset about losing it. Once his grandchildren came, they promised him they would find the watch. One granddaughter asked: "Grandpa, do you remember when you saw the watch last before it went missing?" "I guess when I was cleaning the barn !" Joe replied. The children looked for more than two hours with Joe, but they could not find it. The kids were now also sad, but they tried to comfort their grandfather. One grandson went back to the barn to search again. Joe asked why he was going there a second time. But the little boy just asked the others not to follow him and to remain silent. He was there for about fifteen minutes and then rushed to his grandfather. He found the watch and happily gave it to Joe. Joe was surprised and asked how he was able to find it. The little boy replied: "I sat there without making a noise, and the barn was so silent. After a few minutes, I heard the 'tick, tick' sound and found the watch." Joe hugged and thanked the little boy. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did Joe lose?
Guess: his favorite watch
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How old is he?
Guess: 75
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who found it?
Guess: One of his grandsons
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he old?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did he make a lot of noise when finding it?

No