Here's a short story:

Memphis is a city in the southwestern corner of the U.S. state of Tennessee and the county seat of Shelby County. The city is located on the fourth Chickasaw Bluff, south of the confluence of the Wolf and Mississippi rivers. 

Memphis had a population of 652,717 in 2016, making it the second largest city in the state of Tennessee after Nashville. The greater Memphis metropolitan area, including adjacent counties in Mississippi and Arkansas, had a 2014 population of 1,317,314. This makes Memphis the second-largest metropolitan area in Tennessee, surpassed by metropolitan Nashville. 

Memphis is the youngest of Tennessee's major cities, founded in 1819 as a planned city by a group of wealthy Americans including judge John Overton and future president Andrew Jackson. A resident of Memphis is referred to as a Memphian, and the Memphis region is known, particularly to media outlets, as Memphis and the Mid-South. 

Occupying a substantial bluff rising from the Mississippi River, the site of Memphis has been a natural location for human settlement by varying cultures over thousands of years. The area was known to be settled in the first millennium AD. by people of the Mississippian Culture, who had a network of communities throughout the Mississippi River Valley and its tributaries and built earthwork ceremonial and burial mounds. The historic Chickasaw Indian tribe, believed to be their descendants, later occupied the site. French explorers led by René-Robert Cavelier, Sieur de La Salle and Spanish explorer Hernando de Soto encountered the Chickasaw tribe in that area, in the 16th century. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Is Memphis the oldest of Tennessee's major cities?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What county is it the county seat of?
Guess: Shelby County.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the area first settled?
Guess: 1819.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is the cuty located?
Guess: Southwestern corner of the  state of Tennessee
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it's population?
Guess: 652,717.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which is the name of the only city larger in it in the state of Tennessee?
Guess: Nashville.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who originally planned the city of Memphis?
Guess: A group of wealthy Americans.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Can you name some of them?
Guess: John Overton.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which culture is known to have been settled in the area in the first millennium AD.
Guess: Mississippian.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is a resident of Memphis known as?
Guess: A Memphian,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What is the greater metropolitan area's of the cities poplulation?

1,317,314