Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XXXI 

THIRLWELL'S REWARD 

Winter was nearly over when, one evening, George and Scott arrived at the Farnam homestead where Agatha was a guest. The house was centrally heated, and when the party gathered in Mrs. Farnam's pretty, warm room, Agatha wondered what Thirlwell was doing in the frozen North. Farnam had invested some money in the mine, and Agatha knew George had come to talk about the company's business. 

"Things are not going well with us," he said presently. "Our money's nearly spent and Thirlwell has not been able to get out much ore. I think I told you he suspected Stormont sent the men who staked the claims behind our block, and the fellow's now getting on our track. He's been to see Gardner, Leeson, and one or two others." 

"It would be awkward if they turned us down," Farnam remarked. 

Agatha waited. She knew Gardner and Leeson held a number of the shares, but she did not understand the matter yet. 

"Very awkward," George agreed. "I went to Leeson, and although he didn't say much, I reckon Stormont wants to buy his stock. He allowed that he and Gardner were not satisfied about our prospects, and I couldn't give him much ground for holding on. Then I went to Hill, who said he'd got an offer for his stock and meant to sell, but wouldn't name the buyer. I suspected Stormont again, but we won't know until we get the transfer form." 

"One could head him off by bidding higher for the shares," Farnam suggested. "Still I suppose it's impossible. Anyhow, I have no more money."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where did George and Scott arrive?
Guess: at the Farnam homestead
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was a guest there?
Guess: Agatha
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which season was it?
Guess: Winter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Winter just beginning?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How far along?
Guess: Nearly over
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did the party gather?
Guess: Mrs. Farnam's room
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the temperature like in the room?
Guess: Warm
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What had Farnam invested in ?
Guess: in the mine
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Farnam wish to discuss?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were things going well for the company?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: The money was nearly spent they hadn't gotten much ore
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was suspected of staking claims behind their block?
Guess: Stormont
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Had he been to see anyone else?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who?
Guess: Gardner, Leeson, and one or two others
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they have any shares?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did Agatha have a good understanding of the matter?

No