Here's a short story:

When Daniel woke up yesterday morning, he found he was a bit late for school, so he started running to catch the bus. Moments later, he saw a dog, but not its lead. He tripped over the lead and fell down. He jumped up quickly, went on running and got on the bus. After a while an old coach broke down in the middle of the road, and the driver couldn't move it. It was eight o'clock, the middle of the rush hour, so it soon created a terrible traffic jam. The bus driver tried to go round the coach. Unfortunately a taxi was coming in the opposite direction. The driver tried to stop the taxi, but he couldn't prevent the accident-- the taxi crashed into the front of the bus! Luckily nobody was hurt. When Daniel finally got to school out of breath, the Science lesson had been on for five minutes. Daniel said sorry to the teacher and sat at his desk. He reached out for his school bag-- no, it was nowhere to be found. "Where is my school bag?" Daniel was puzzled. Suddenly he realized that he had left it on the bus. Bad luck! (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who woke up late?
Guess: Daniel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do right away?
Guess: ran to catch the bus
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What animal did he see on the way?
Guess: a dog
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it on a leash?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he trip over the animal?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he trip over?
Guess: the lead
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did this slow him down long?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his reaction to the fall?
Guess: He jumped up quickly
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he miss the bus?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of vehicle caused a delay?
Guess: an old coach
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened to it?
Guess: it broke down
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time was it when this happened?
Guess: eight o'clock
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did the driver try to do?
Guess: go round the coach
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he do that safely?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What hit the bus?
Guess: taxi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was anyone inured?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much of his lessons did Dan miss?
Guess: five minutes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he say to the instructor?
Guess: sorry
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did he forget to bring?

school bag