Here's a short story:

The Independent is a British online newspaper. Established in 1986 as an independent national morning newspaper published in London, it was controlled by Tony O'Reilly's Independent News & Media from 1997 until it was sold to Russian oligarch Alexander Lebedev in 2010. The last printed edition of "The Independent" was published Saturday 20 March 2016, leaving only its digital editions. 

Nicknamed the "Indy", it began as a broadsheet, but changed to tabloid (compact) format in 2003. Until September 2011, the paper described itself on the banner at the top of every newspaper as "free from party political bias, free from proprietorial influence". It tends to take a pro-market stance on economic issues. 

The daily edition was named "National Newspaper of the Year" at the 2004 British Press Awards. 

In June 2015, it had an average daily circulation of just below 58,000, 85 per cent down from its 1990 peak, while the Sunday edition had a circulation of just over 97,000. 

Launched in 1986, the first issue of "The Independent" was published on 7 October in broadsheet format. It was produced by Newspaper Publishing plc and created by Andreas Whittam Smith, Stephen Glover and Matthew Symonds. All three partners were former journalists at "The Daily Telegraph" who had left the paper towards the end of Lord Hartwell's ownership. Marcus Sieff was the first chairman of Newspaper Publishing, and Whittam Smith took control of the paper. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What publication is this about?
Guess: The Independent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What type of publication is it?
Guess: online newspaper
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was it started?
Guess: London
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: 1986
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it always online?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What company ran it starting in 1997?
Guess: Independent News & Media
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's its nickname?
Guess: the "Indy"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In 2015 which had higher circulation, daily or Sunday?
Guess: Sunday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much lower was daily circulation down from 1990?
Guess: 85 per cent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How much was circulation down since 1990?

85 per cent