Here's a short story:

Chapter 16: A Treasure Room. 

"'Tis infamous," Cacama said, as he paced up and down the room; "but what is to be done? They hold him in their hands as a hostage, in the heart of his own capital, and among his own people; and are capable of hanging him from the walls, should a hostile movement be made against them. 

"You were right, Roger Hawkshaw, in warning us against these men. They are without faith and honor, thus to seize a host who has loaded them with presents, who has emptied his treasuries to appease their greed, and who has treated them with the most extraordinary condescension. It is a crime unheard of, an act of base ingratitude, without a parallel. What is to be done?" 

Roger was silent. Such a situation, so strange and unlooked for, confounded him. 

"I should say," Cuitcatl burst out passionately, "that every Mexican should take up arms, and annihilate this handful of invaders. What though Montezuma fall? Better that a monarch should perish than a nation. Besides, Montezuma has shown himself unfit to govern. It is his weakness that has brought things to this pass. Think you that the white men could ever have advanced beyond the plateau of Tlascala, had all the forces of Mexico barred the way? Think you that they could ever have entered the capital, had it been defended with resolution? One moment he flattered the strangers and loaded them with gifts; the next he was ready to send his forces against them. The Cholulans had good reason for believing that he designed the annihilation of the Whites, if he did not actually order the attack upon them.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is the hostage?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is he being held?
Guess: In the heart of his own capital.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is holding him?
Guess: Invaders.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What do they plan to do with him?
Guess: Hang him from the walls.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is not fit to rule?
Guess: Montezuma.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why is he not fit?

He is weak.