Here's a short story:

A single parent took their child on a trip. The trip was to the playground. The child had a fear of the playground, because she had dug a hole and it had made her trip once. The parent put the child on the sofa and put her shoes on, telling her that it would be alright, and they would be back home by nine. At the playground, the child met a witch. The witch had a piggy with her. The witch stood in the middle of the street. She had a broom. The child wondered what there was to sweep at the playground. Instead, the witch made a chicken, and gave some of it to the child. The witch was saying that it was a gift for her. She thought a gift would help the child with her fear. The child ate the chicken. Then she asked the witch a question. She asked what the witch had a broom for. The witch laughed. She told the girl it was to fly with. The girl did not believe her. The witch sat on her broom and flew away. In the distance, a dog howled. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who had a broom?
Guess: the witch had a broom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was she?
Guess: At the playground
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did someone notice her?
Guess: a child
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was anyone with the witch?
Guess: a piggy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did she sweep the ground?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was it for?
Guess: to fly with.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the child think she was lying?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the noise in the distance?
Guess: a dog
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who went with the child to the park?
Guess: A single parent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the child excited to go?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why not?
Guess: she had a fear of the playground,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

because she tripped in a hole before