Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Jorge Lorenzo climbed from fourth on the grid to win the French MotoGP at a rain-soaked Le Mans on Sunday and take the lead in the championship. 

Riding his Yamaha flawlessly in the wet conditions, Lorenzo took the lead on the first lap and eventually finished 9.905 seconds clear of Valentino Rossi, who had the consolation of his best finish so far for Ducati. 

Rossi held off a determined Casey Stoner, who finished third in the week he announced he was quitting the sport at the end of the season. 

"It was really difficult to hold concentration today, in the dry it's complicated but in the wet it's even more," Lorenzo said. "The race feels much longer and you have to remember where the corners are slippery every lap. If you forget one you can crash very easily." 

Lorenzo, who won for the second time this season, leads the championship by eight points from Stoner. 

"I was pretty happy to hold on for a podium today," Stoner said. "I enjoyed the battle with Valentino at the end, there was clean overtaking and we swapped positions a few times but in the end we knew that Valentino had better pace than us and after he passed there was no way I could stay with him. 

"We did everything we could today and to come away with a podium is a good result." 

Stoner's Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa started on pole but ended up fourth, and is now 25 points adrift of Lorenzo.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What conditions were there?
Guess: Wet conditions?
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: During what?
Guess: French MotoGP at Le Mans
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was in the lead?
Guess: Jorge Lorenzo.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How large was it?
Guess: 9.905 seconds.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was he ahead of?
Guess: Valentino Ross
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who came in third?
Guess: Casey Stoner
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Would he be returning?
Guess: No, retiring.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: The end of the season.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is ahead in points?
Guess: Lorenzo
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By how many?
Guess: eight points
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is he ahead of?
Guess: Stoner.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is Dani?
Guess: Stoner's Honda teammate
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he place?
Guess: fourth
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How far is he behind the leader?
Guess: 25 points.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who rides for Ducati?
Guess: Valentino Rossi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was this his worst race?
Guess: His best.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How far behind was the winner at the start?
Guess: He climbed from fourth.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How did he ride?

Flawlessly