Here's a short story:

In 1886 explorer Robert Peary traveled to Greenland for the U.S. Navy. Before his journey, no one knew Greenland's size or shape. On Peary's first trips, he explored Greenland, mapping parts of it. 

When Peary returned to the United States, he went to a businessman to sell some furs. There he met Matthew Henson, an African American mechanic, builder and navigator. When Peary went to Nicaragua on a Navy mission ,Henson went with him. When that job was over, the two headed to the Arctic. 

Henson and Peary set sail for Greenland. When they landed, Henson built a house for their base camp. Peary and his men set out to explore the land by dog sledge . Henson was injured and had to stay at the base. While there, he made friends with the Inuit, the native people. 

In 1895 Henson, Peary and Hugh Lee went out on another dog sledge journey. This time, they found Greenland's northernmost point. They now knew that the North Pole lay under the frozen Arctic Ocean. Peary had hoped to cross the ice. but the group ran out of food and returned to base camp. In the years that followed, Peary and Henson tried several times to reach the North Pole, but each time they failed. On one trip, Peary's feet froze, and he lost his toes . 

Peary and Henson planned last trip when Peary was 53 years old. They started across the sea ice from Ellesmere Island, which is located north of Canada. The temperature dropped as low as--51 degrees Celsius. The explores' cheeks froze , and they suffered snow blindness from the sun's glare. They experienced high winds and storms, and they also faced a hidden danger. Under the frozen ocean were powerful currents . The ice moved and broke apart leaving open water, called leads. Twice Peary fell into leads. But eventually he and Henson became the first persons to reach the North Pole. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who traveled to Greenland?
Guess: Robert Peary
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do in Greenland?
Guess: he explored Greenland, mapping parts of it
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Peary sell to the US?
Guess: some furs
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he meet?
Guess: Matthew Henson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was Mr. Henson?
Guess: African American mechanic, builder and navigator
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he head to?
Guess: the Arctic
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who set sail for Greenland?
Guess: Henson and Peary
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did they set out to explore?
Guess: the land by dog sledge
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why did Henson have to stay on base?
Guess: Henson was injured
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who were the Inuit?
Guess: the native people
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what year did they go out on another journey?
Guess: In 1895
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they find this time?
Guess: Greenland's northernmost point
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: The North pole is frozen under what?
Guess: Arctic Ocean
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Peary hoped to do what?
Guess: to cross the ice
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What froze on one trip?
Guess: Peary's feet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened because of this?
Guess: he lost his toes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: The last trip was planned when?

when Peary was 53 years old