Here's a short story:

One day, Jimmy, who was getting ready to walk down to school, could not find his favorite hat. He began looking all over the place for it, his room, the kitchen, even outside. It was nowhere to be found. He was running late for school and didn't want to be marked absent so he went to school without it. At school, Jimmy kept becoming upset because he couldn't find his hat. When Jimmy got home his hat was sitting there next to his goldfish. His mom had found it. It was in the kitchen the whole time. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is missing something?
Guess: Jimmy.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and what was he missing?
Guess: His favorite hat.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he make it to school on time?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why not?

Because he went to school without it.