Here's a short story:

Gmina Michałowo is an urban-rural gmina (administrative district) in Białystok County, Podlaskie Voivodeship, in north-eastern Poland, on the border with Belarus. Its seat is the town of Michałowo, which lies approximately east of the regional capital Białystok. (Michałowo gained town status on 1 January 2009 – prior to that the district was classed as a rural gmina.) 

The gmina covers an area of , and as of 2006 its total population is 7,263, out of which the population of Michałowo is 3,343. 

The gmina contains part of the protected area called Knyszyń Forest Landscape Park. 

Apart from the town of Michałowo, the gmina contains the villages and settlements of Bachury, Bagniuki, Barszczewo, Bieńdziuga, Bołtryki, Bondary, Borsukowizna, Brzezina, Budy, Cisówka, Ciwoniuki, Dublany, Garbary, Gonczary, Gorbacze, Hieronimowo, Hoźna, Jałówka, Julianka, Juszkowy Gród, Kalitnik, Kamienny Bród, Kazimierowo, Kituryki, Kobylanka, Kokotowo, Kokotowo-Leśniczówka, Koleśne, Kondratki, Kopce, Kowalowy Gród, Krugły Lasek, Krukowszczyzna, Krynica, Kuchmy-Kuce, Kuchmy-Pietruki, Kuryły, Leonowicze, Lewsze, Maciejkowa Góra, Majdan, Marynka, Michałowo-Kolonia, Mościska, Mostowlany-Kolonia, Nowa Łuplanka, Nowa Wola, Nowe Kuchmy, Nowosady, Odnoga-Kuźmy, Osiedle Bondary, Oziabły, Pieńki, Pieńki-Kolonia, Planty, Pólko, Potoka, Rochental, Romanowo, Rudnia, Rybaki, Sacharki, Sokole, Stanek, Stara Łuplanka, Stare Kuchmy, Supruny, Suszcza, Świnobród, Szymki, Tanica Dolna, Tanica Górna, Tokarowszczyzna, Topolany, Tylwica, Tylwica-Kolonia, Tylwica-Majątek, Wierch-Topolany, Zajma, Zaleszany and Żednia. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is Gmina Michalowo?
Guess: an urban-rural gmina
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what's a gmina?
Guess: an administrative district
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how big is it?
Guess: 7,263 people
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where is it?
Guess: north-eastern Poland
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does this gmina include a protected area?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is it?
Guess: Knyszyń Forest Landscape Park.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is Michalowo classified as?
Guess: a town
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did it used to be?
Guess: a rural gmina
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: when did it change?

1 January 2009