Here's a short story:

CHAPTER ONE 

PLAYING PILGRIMS 

"Christmas won't be Christmas without any presents," grumbled Jo, lying on the rug. 

"It's so dreadful to be poor!" sighed Meg, looking down at her old dress. 

"I don't think it's fair for some girls to have plenty of pretty things, and other girls nothing at all," added little Amy, with an injured sniff. 

"We've got Father and Mother, and each other," said Beth contentedly from her corner. 

The four young faces on which the firelight shone brightened at the cheerful words, but darkened again as Jo said sadly, "We haven't got Father, and shall not have him for a long time." She didn't say "perhaps never," but each silently added it, thinking of Father far away, where the fighting was. 

Nobody spoke for a minute; then Meg said in an altered tone, "You know the reason Mother proposed not having any presents this Christmas was because it is going to be a hard winter for everyone; and she thinks we ought not to spend money for pleasure, when our men are suffering so in the army. We can't do much, but we can make our little sacrifices, and ought to do it gladly. But I am afraid I don't," and Meg shook her head, as she thought regretfully of all the pretty things she wanted. 

"But I don't think the little we should spend would do any good. We've each got a dollar, and the army wouldn't be much helped by our giving that. I agree not to expect anything from Mother or you, but I do want to buy _Undine and Sintran_ for myself. I've wanted it so long," said Jo, who was a bookworm.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What holiday are they discussing?
Guess: Christmas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What might they have to give up that holiday?
Guess: presents
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which sister is wearing a dress that is not new?
Guess: Meg
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what does she not like being?
Guess: poor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who is lying on the floor?
Guess: Jo
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who suggested they not buy each other gifts that year?
Guess: Mother
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is one of her reasons for suggesting this?
Guess: it is going to be a hard winter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: does she agree with spending money for nice things?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: for what reason?
Guess: men are suffering so in the army
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: do they know anyone who is serving in the military?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who is that?
Guess: their Father
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is he nearby?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: which sister feels insulted some girls have lots of nice things?
Guess: Amy,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how much money does each girl have?
Guess: a dollar,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what does Jo want to purchase with it?
Guess: Undine and Sintran
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: does she like to read?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: does she think her money would help the military?

no