Here's a short story:

Missouri is a state in the Midwestern United States. With over six million residents, it is the 18th most populous state. The largest urban areas are St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, and Columbia. The capitol is in Jefferson City on the Missouri River. The state is the 21st most extensive in area. In the South are the Ozarks, a forested highland, providing timber, minerals, and recreation. The Mississippi River forms the eastern border of the state. 

Humans have inhabited the land now known as Missouri for at least 12,000 years. The Mississippian culture built cities and mounds, before declining in the 1300s. When European explorers arrived in the 1600s they encountered the Osage and Missouria nations. The French established Louisiana, a part of New France, and founded Ste. Genevieve in 1735 and St. Louis in 1764. After a brief period of Spanish rule, the United States acquired the Louisiana Purchase in 1803. Americans from the Upland South, including enslaved African Americans, rushed into the new Missouri Territory. Many from Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee settled in the Boonslick area of Mid-Missouri. Soon after, heavy German immigration formed the Missouri Rhineland. 

Missouri played a central role in the westward expansion of the United States, as memorialized by the Gateway Arch. The Pony Express, Oregon Trail, Santa Fe Trail, and California Trail all began in Missouri. As a border state, Missouri's role in the American Civil War was complex and there were many conflicts within. After the war, both Greater St. Louis and the Kansas City metropolitan area became centers of industrialization and business. Today, the state is divided into 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did European explorers find in the 1600's?
Guess: Osage and Missouria nations.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who founded Louisiana?
Guess: The French
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they claim other areas?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which ones?
Guess: Ste. Genevieve and St. Louis
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was that?
Guess: Ste. Genevieve in 1735
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about St. Louis?
Guess: 1764
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who  acquired the Louisiana Purchase?

United States