Here's a short story:

(CNN)The United States is now working on the assumption that Charlie Hebdo attacker Said Kouachi met American terrorist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki at some point in Yemen and received orders from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to carry out an attack, a U.S. official tells CNN. 

The official said Kouachi's motivation for waiting so long -- possibly since 2011 -- to launch an attack was not clear. 

U.S. officials Sunday said American authorities don't have evidence yet directly linking AQAP to specifically ordering the Paris attack last week at the offices of the satirical magaine. "We don't have credible information, at least as yet, to indicate who was responsible, who sponsored this act. That is clearly one of the things that we have to make a determination of," Attorney General Eric Holder told CNN's Gloria Borger on "State of the Union." 

French security agencies had been monitoring Said Kouachi and his brother, Cherif, but stopped months before the two carried out the attack that left 12 people dead. The French monitoring faded despite a previous tip-off from American intelligence agencies that one of them had likely trained with al Qaeda in Yemen, a French news magazine reported Saturday. 

Said Kouachi is suspected of slipping off for terror training in Yemen during a trip he made with another French national to Oman between July 25 and August 15 in 2011, according to multiple French officials who spoke to L'Express national security reporter Eric Pelletier. Pelletier shared the details of his reporting with CNN.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is AQAP?
Guess: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do American authorities have evidence linking them to the Paris attack?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is suspected of doing it?
Guess: Said Kouachi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he train?
Guess: in Yemen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was he in Yemen?
Guess: between July 25 and August 15 in 2011
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he go with anyone else?
Guess: with another French national
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his name?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he meet with anyone there?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who?
Guess: American terrorist cleric Anwar al-Awlak
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do authorities think he ordered the attack?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was attacked?
Guess: Paris
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why did he wait so long to attack?
Guess: unclear
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Was Said being monitored when the attack was carried out?

no