Here's a short story:

Native Hawaiians (Hawaiian: "kānaka ʻōiwi", "kānaka maoli", and "Hawaiʻi maoli") are the indigenous Polynesian people of the Hawaiian Islands or their descendants. Native Hawaiians trace their ancestry back to the original Polynesian settlers of Hawaii. 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau report for 2000, there are 401,000 people who identified themselves as being "Native Hawaiian" alone or in combination with one or more other races or Pacific Islander groups. 141,000 people identified themselves as being "Native Hawaiian" alone. 

The majority of Native Hawaiians reside in the state of Hawaii (two-thirds), and the rest are scattered among other states, especially in the American Southwest, and with a high concentration in California. 

The history of Native Hawaiians, like the history of Hawaii, is commonly classified into four major periods: 

One hypothesis is that the first Polynesians arrived in Hawaii in the 4th century from the Marquesas, and were followed by Tahitians in AD 1300, who then conquered the original inhabitants. Another is that a single, extended period of settlement populated the islands. Evidence for a Tahitian conquest of the islands include the legends of Hawaiiloa and the navigator-priest Paao, who is said to have made a voyage between Hawaii and the island of "Kahiki" (Tahiti) and introduced many customs. Early historians, such as Fornander and Beckwith, subscribed to this Tahitian invasion theory, but later historians, such as Kirch, do not mention it. King Kalakaua claimed that Paao was from Samoa. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How many native Hawaiians were there in 2000?
Guess: 401,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: According to?
Guess: the U.S. Census Bureau
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where do the majority reside?
Guess: Hawaii
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many?
Guess: two-thirds
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: do other states have any?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: name one state?
Guess: California
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where do they trace their ancestry to?
Guess: Polynesian settlers of Hawaii
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is their history classified into periods?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many?
Guess: four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did Paao make a voyage from?
Guess: between Hawaii and  Kahiki
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is Kahiki presently known as?
Guess: Tahiti
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did King Klakaua claim anything different?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who did he talk about?
Guess: Paao
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did he claim?
Guess: Paao was from Samoa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who were the first to arrive?
Guess: Polynesians
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: from?
Guess: Marquesas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: in the 4th century
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: who conquered the original inhabitants?

Tahitians