Here's a short story:

Istanbul, Turkey (CNN) -- The day after Christmas was a tough one for Santa in his ancestral homeland of Turkey. 

A Muslim youth group held a demonstration Thursday in Istanbul, blasting the "jolly old elf" of legend and lore for contributing to moral decay and urging residents to turn against him. 

"Traditions such as new year celebrations, Christmas tree decorations, and Santa Claus leaving presents are leading to degeneration of our culture and leading to identity crises in our society. It tears our youth from their own culture and familiarizes them with the culture of the West leading them to embrace those values," the Anatolia Youth Association said in a statement. 

The group used an inflatable plastic Santa as a prop -- littering the ground below it with beer cans, a syringe and a cross to illustrate the dangers of inviting Santa into Turkish homes. 

They also distributed an image of a man delivering a brutal left hook to Santa's bearded cheek. 

Three years ago, the same group stabbed a blow-up Santa. 

Such sentiments are not widespread in Turkey. 

Many secular Muslims in Turkey decorate their homes with Christmas trees and Santas -- known in Turkey as "Noel Baba," or Father Christmas. They exchange gifts not on Christmas, but rather New Year's Day. 

Despite Thursday's unpleasantness, Turkey and ol' Claus go way back -- all the way to 4th Century. That's when, as religious tradition has it, the Christian St. Nicholas secretly gifted money and other items to residents around his home in what is now the southern Turkish city of Demre, becoming the model for the modern Santa Claus.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What custom is controversial in Turkey?
Guess: Santa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who doesn't like the custom?
Guess: A Muslim youth group
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long has Santa been associated with this country?
Guess: Since the 4th Century.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is Santa patterned after?
Guess: St. Nicholas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What religion is he?
Guess: Christian
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do?
Guess: Gave money and other items away
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: Demre
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is that?
Guess: Southern Turkey
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does all of Turkey agree with the demonstrators?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What other religion celebrate the tradition?
Guess: Muslims
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are they religious?
Guess: Secular
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How do they celebrate?

Decorate with Christmas trees and Santas