Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Overprotective sister? Underprotective husband? 

No one knows what was said amongst Solange Knowles, Jay Z and Beyonce in that elevator in the Standard Hotel in Manhattan or even what led up to the video that appears to show Solange kicking and hitting her brother-in-law. 

But here is what we do know: the Internet is on fire with theories. 

Earlier this week, an elevator surveillance video surfaced that showed Solange appearing to berate Jay Z before she becomes physical. Her sister, Beyonce, is present and witnesses the attack. 

The incident has inspired a hashtag, #WhatJaySaidToSolange, countless memes and tons of speculation. 

Quoting an anonymous source, Us Weekly reported that Solange Knowles had an earlier run-in with designer Rachel Roy. (Roy is the ex-wife of Damon Dash, Jay Z's former friend and business partner.) 

The New York Daily News, also using an unnamed source, took it one step further. In addition to the alleged argument with Roy, the paper threw in Jay Z's supposed desire to head solo to a party being given by Rihanna. This, according to the Daily News, did not sit well with Beyonce's younger sister. 

Talk show host Wendy Williams also offered her own observations, including what appears to be the removal of a tattoo on Beyonce's finger of the roman numeral "IV." It was reportedly her wedding ring tattoo, meant to symbolize both her wedding date (April 4) as well as her and Jay Z's birthdays (September 4 and December 4, respectively). 

So far, some of the principal characters seem to be letting Instagram speak for them. Beyonce has posted happy pictures of her and her sister, while Solange participated in "Throwback Thursday" with a picture of the two siblings as kids.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Does anyone know what Jay said to Solange?
Guess: No one knows
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who has theories about what was said?
Guess: the Internet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Beyonce present when Solange hit jay?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was one theory?
Guess: Solange Knowles had an earlier run-in with designer Rachel Roy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What else?
Guess: Jay Z's supposed desire to head solo to a party being given by Rihanna
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did any of the parties involved say anything?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Beyonce remove a tatoo?
Guess: YEs
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

unknown