Here's a short story:

Chapter III. -- KURFURST FRIEDRICH II. 

The First Friedrich's successor was a younger son, Friedrich II.; who lasted till 1471, above thirty years; and proved likewise a notable manager and governor. Very capable to assert himself, and his just rights, in this world. He was but Twenty-seven at his accession; but the Berlin Burghers, attempting to take some liberties with him, found he was old enough. He got the name IRONTEETH. Friedrich FERRATIS DENTIBUS, from his decisive ways then and afterwards. He had his share of brabbling with intricate litigant neighbors; quarrels now and then not to be settled without strokes. His worst war was with Pommern,--just claims disputed there, and much confused bickering, sieging and harassing in consequence: of which quarrel we must speak anon. It was he who first built the conspicuous Schloss or Palace at Berlin, having got the ground for it (same ground still covered by the actual fine Edifice, which is a second edition of Friedrich's) from the repentant Burghers; and took up his chief residence there. [1442-1431 (Nicolari, i. 81).] 

But his principal achievement in Brandenburg History is his recovery of the Province called the Neumark to that Electorate. In the thriftless Sigismund times, the Neumark had been pledged, had been sold; Teutsch Ritterdom, to whose dominions it lay contiguous, had purchased it with money down. The Teutsch Ritters were fallen moneyless enough since then; they offered to pledge the Neumark to Friedrich, who accepted, and advanced the sum: after a while the Teutsch Ritters, for a small farther sum, agreed to sell Neumark. [Michaelis, i. 301.] Into which Transaction, with its dates and circumstances, let us cast one glance, for our behoof afterwards. The Teutsch Ritters were an opulent domineering Body in Sigismund's early time; but they are now come well down in Friedrich II.'s! And are coming ever lower. Sinking steadily, or with desperate attempts to rise, which only increase the speed downwards, ever since that fatal Tannenberg Business, 15th July, 1410. Here is the sad progress of their descent to the bottom; divided into three stages or periods:--  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How old was Friedrich II when he took over?
Guess: Twenty-seven
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long did he stay?
Guess: above thirty years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did his term end?
Guess: 1471
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did he end arguments?
Guess: with strokes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What achievement is he known for?
Guess: recovery of Neumark to that Electorate
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who bought the Neumark?
Guess: Teutsch Ritterdom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they leave a deposit?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did they pledge it to?
Guess: Friedrich
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they keep it?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they do with it?
Guess: sold it
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the Neumark
Guess: a Province
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did the Teutsch Ritters end up?
Guess: the bottom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened in 1410?
Guess: that fatal Tannenberg Business
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the date?
Guess: 15th July
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose land was next to Neumark?
Guess: Teutsch Ritterdom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they lose after the left a deposit?
Guess: money
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was Friedrich's nickname?
Guess: Ironteeth
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he good at his job?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who thought he was old enough?
Guess: the Berlin Burghers
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did he construct in Berlin?

Schloss