Here's a short story:

It was Sally's birthday. She was very excited. She was going to have a sleepover at her house for her birthday. She invited all of her best friends. The party was at 1 on Saturday. Jessica, Erin, and Cathy all arrived at 1, but Jennifer was late. She did not come until 2, because she could not find her other shoe. The first thing they all did was go swimming in her pool. They had so much fun. They played with the foam noodles in the pool. Erin accidentally kicked Jennifer's leg in the pool. After they swam, everyone rinsed off and went inside. They ate cake, opened presents, and watched TV. After it got dark, they ran up and down the stairway, played telephone, and told spooky stories. Sally tripped going down the stairs and hurt her foot, but it felt better soon after. Cathy got scared when they were telling stories, and wanted to call her mom to go home. The other girls told her that it is only a story. She felt better. They all fell asleep at 11. Sally was the first to wake up at 8 in the morning. She made pancakes for her and her friends. They all loved the pancakes, except Erin. She ate some fruit instead. At 10, all the girls went back home. Sally was happy that she had such a great birthday party. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who's birthday was it?
Guess: Sally's
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which of her friends came to the party?
Guess: Jessica, Erin, Cathy and Jennifer
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: which friends arrived at 1 on Saturday?
Guess: Jessica, Erin, and Cathy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which friend was late and arrived at 2?
Guess: Jennifer
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the first thing they all did?
Guess: go swimming
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did they have fun?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Erin accidentally kick Jennifer's leg?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they do after it got dark?
Guess: they ran
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who tripped going down the stairs and hurt her foot?
Guess: Sally
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was anyone scared of the ghost stories?
Guess: Cathy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time did they fall asleep?
Guess: 11
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who woke up first?
Guess: Sally
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did she make for breakfast?
Guess: pancakes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did Erin like them?

no