Here's a short story:

East Prussia enclosed the bulk of the ancestral lands of the Baltic Old Prussians. During the 13th century, the native Prussians were conquered by the crusading Teutonic Knights. The indigenous Balts who survived the conquest were gradually converted to Christianity. Because of Germanization and colonisation over the following centuries, Germans became the dominant ethnic group, while Poles and Lithuanians formed minorities. From the 13th century, East Prussia was part of the monastic state of the Teutonic Knights. After the Second Peace of Thorn in 1466 it became a fief of the Kingdom of Poland. In 1525, with the Prussian Homage, the province became the Duchy of Prussia. The Old Prussian language had become extinct by the 17th or early 18th century. 

Because the duchy was outside of the core Holy Roman Empire, the prince-electors of Brandenburg were able to proclaim themselves King of Prussia beginning in 1701. After the annexation of most of western Royal Prussia in the First Partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1772, eastern (ducal) Prussia was connected by land with the rest of the Prussian state and was reorganized as a province the following year (1773). Between 1829 and 1878, the Province of East Prussia was joined with West Prussia to form the Province of Prussia. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: When were the native Prussians conquered?
Guess: During the 13th century
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: by who?
Guess: by the crusading Teutonic Knights
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who survived?
Guess: The indigenous Balts
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what were they converted to?
Guess: Christianity
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was the dominant ethnic group?
Guess: the Germans
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and the minority?
Guess: Poles and Lithuanians
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why?
Guess: Because of Germanization and colonisation
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the second peace of Thorn?
Guess: 1466
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened in 1525?
Guess: the province became the Duchy of Prussia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened to the language?
Guess: it became extinct
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: by the 17th or early 18th century
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was duchy in the core Holy Empire?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what happened because of this?
Guess: the prince-electors of Brandenburg were able to proclaim themselves King of Prussia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did this start?
Guess: in 1701
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was eastern Prussia connected by land with the rest of the state?
Guess: in 1772
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was it recgonized?
Guess: in 1773
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What forms Province of prussia?
Guess: the Province of East Prussia and West Prussia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did this happen?
Guess: Between 1829 and 1878
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who were the native Prussians defeated by?

by the crusading Teutonic Knights