Here's a short story:

CHAPTER IX 

Montemar was too near the frontier to be a safe abode for the little Duke, and his uncle, Count Hubert of Senlis, agreed with Bernard the Dane that he would be more secure beyond the limits of his own duchy, which was likely soon to be the scene of war; and, sorely against his will, he was sent in secret, under a strong escort, first to the Castle of Coucy, and afterwards to Senlis. 

His consolation was, that he was not again separated from his friends; Alberic, Sir Eric, and even Fru Astrida, accompanied him, as well as his constant follower, Osmond. Indeed, the Baron would hardly bear that he should be out of his sight; and he was still so carefully watched, that it was almost like a captivity. Never, even in the summer days, was he allowed to go beyond the Castle walls; and his guardians would fain have had it supposed that the Castle did not contain any such guest. 

Osmond did not give him so much of his company as usual, but was always at work in the armourer's forge--a low, vaulted chamber, opening into the Castle court. Richard and Alberic were very curious to know what he did there; but he fastened the door with an iron bar, and they were forced to content themselves with listening to the strokes of the hammer, keeping time to the voice that sang out, loud and cheerily, the song of "Sigurd's sword, and the maiden sleeping within the ring of flame." Fru Astrida said Osmond was quite right--no good weapon-smith ever toiled with open doors; and when the boys asked him questions as to his work, he only smiled, and said that they would see what it was when the call to arms should come.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was too near the frontier?
Guess: Montemar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who thought so?
Guess: Count Hubert and bernard the Dane
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are they related?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How so?
Guess: Hubert's his uncle
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Gertrude the Brave considered to be a friendly companion based on those listed?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is?
Guess: Alberic, Sir Eric, and Fru Astrida
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anyone else?
Guess: Osmond.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Montemar permitted to roam free whenever he wanted?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he like that?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was there music playing in the courtyard?
Guess: not music
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was there sounds of?
Guess: hammer on metal and singing.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What song?

Sigurd's sword, and the maiden sleeping within the ring of flame."