Here's a short story:

(Mental Floss) -- Over the centuries, people have had some very good reasons to dress up like a member of the opposite sex. 

And I'm not talking about people who live this way out of personal preference, or those who dress up for theater and entertainment. 

Here are just five examples. 

1. Cross-dressing to join the army 

Until recently, women have rarely been allowed to serve as soldiers. 

So what was a gal to do if she wanted to serve her country? Naturally, disguise herself as a man and join the troops. 

At least 400 Civil War soldiers were women in drag. These included Union Army soldier "Frank Thompson" (also known as Sarah Edmonds), whose small frame and feminine mannerisms (rather than causing suspicion) made her an ideal spy, as she could spy on the Confederates disguised as... a woman! 

She wasn't the first woman to don a male disguise and join the army, though. During the Revolutionary War, women fought as men on both sides. 

Hannah Snell, for example, joined the British army to find her husband, who had walked out on her to enlist. 

Once her true sex was discovered (thanks to a pesky groin injury), she became a national celebrity in Britain, and made a post-war career of performing in bars as the "Female Warrior." Mental Floss: The Confederacy's plan to conquer Latin America 

2. Cross-dressing to keep a royal family together 

With all the power play that went on in the court, the French royal family would go to great lengths to avoid sibling rivalry. In one of the more extreme cases, Philippe I, Duke of Orleans (1640-1701), was raised as a girl to discourage him from any political or military aspirations.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Were women always allowed in the military?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How could a women participate, despite the regulations against it?
Guess: disguise herself as a man
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: During which war did this happen?
Guess: Revolutionary War
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it limited to only one side of the conflict?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What name did Sarah Edmonds use to enlist?
Guess: Frank Thompson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what war did she fight?
Guess: Civil War
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many other women joined her?
Guess: At least 400
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Sarah's statue made her an ideal candidate for what position?
Guess: a spy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why did Hannah Snell join the army?
Guess: to find her husband
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which army had he joined?
Guess: the British army
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Hannah become famous?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How was she caught?
Guess: a groin injury
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did she perform?
Guess: bars
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: As what character?
Guess: the "Female Warrior"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which royal family member was raised as a member of the opposite sex?
Guess: Philippe I
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he live?
Guess: 1640-1701
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did his family want to discourage him from?

political or military aspirations