Here's a short story:

Pretoria, South Africa (CNN) -- An emotional Oscar Pistorius apologized Monday to the family of Reeva Steenkamp, the girlfriend he killed on Valentine's Day last year, saying he woke up thinking of them and praying for them every day. 

"I would like to take this opportunity to apologize -- to Mr. and Mrs. Steenkamp, to Reeva's family -- to those who are here today who knew her," Pistorius said as he took the stand for the first time at his murder trial. 

"I can't imagine the pain and the sorrow and the emptiness that I have caused you and your family. ... I can promise you that when she went to bed that night, she felt loved," he said, his voice breaking as if he was fighting back tears. 

It was the first time he has spoken in public about Steenkamp's death, which he says was an accident. He pleaded not guilty to murder when the high-profile trial opened last month. 

Steenkamp's mother, June, sat stony-faced in court as South Africa's onetime Olympic golden boy choked out his statement. 

Judge Thokozile Masipa also betrayed no emotion as Pistorius spoke but did once ask him to talk louder, saying she could hardly hear him. 

Monday was the first day of the defense phase of the trial, following three weeks of prosecution in March. 

Pistorius, who says he mistook Steenkamp for an intruder in his house in the dark, testified that he has been suffering nightmares since the killing and wakes up smelling blood.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where is this happening?
Guess: Pretoria, South Africa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is happening?
Guess: Oscar Pistorius murdered his girlfriend
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was her name?
Guess: Reeva Steenkamp
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did it happen?
Guess: Valentine's Day last year
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what phase is it in?
Guess: defense phase of the trial
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he speak?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he say?
Guess: I can't imagine the pain and the sorrow and the emptiness that I have caused you and your family. ... I can promise you that when she went to bed that night, she felt loved,"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did he say happen?

he mistook Steenkamp for an intruder in his house in the dark