Here's a short story:

Once upon a time, there lived a Daddy bird. This was a very normal bird. It did not sing pretty songs. It did not have colorful feathers but it did have thing that made it stand out from the other birds. 

It had a very long tail feather. And with this long tail feather, the bird could do wonderful tricks. He could fly in circles and fly at super-fast speed. Daddy bird lived on a quiet street, at a yellow house. Its nest was on top of a basketball pole that the kids who lived in the yellow house had outgrown. 

The bird was a daddy bird and had two baby birds in its nest. One of the baby birds had a long tail feather like the daddy bird. The other baby bird did not. Instead, it had wings with many colors like the mommy bird. 

This bird family lived at the yellow house all summer long. The mommy and daddy birds came back for many summers and had many more baby birds but only one, the very first baby bird, had a long tail feather and could do tricks like daddy bird. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What lived?
Guess: a Daddy bird
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of bird?
Guess: a very normal bird
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it sing songs?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: But did it have colorful feathers?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What made it stand out?
Guess: It had a very long tail feather.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And what could it do with that?
Guess: tricks
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What kind of tricks?

wonderful