Here's a short story:

United Nations (CNN) -- Palestinian President Mahoud Abbas put forth a historic U.N. membership bid for an independent state of Palestine on Friday; a move Israel says is premature without direct talks that address its longstanding security concerns. 

The formal application -- viewed as a largely symbolic gesture because an American veto is all but assured should the request come to a vote in the Security Council -- drew applause in the assembly when the Palestinian leader raised the document at the podium during his speech at the 66th annual session of the General Assembly. 

The time has come for a "Palestinian Spring" to join the Arab Spring in reshaping the Middle East, he said. "My people desire to exercise their right to enjoy a normal life like the rest of humanity." 

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, later taking his turn to address the General Assembly, said Palestinians are looking for a "state without peace," ignoring security concerns important to Israel. 

He said Palestinians are not armed only with their "hopes and dreams," as Abbas said in his speech. To that he added "10,000 missiles, and Grad rockets supplied by Iran, not to mention the river of lethal weapons flowing into Gaza." 

"Palestinians should first make peace with Israel, and then get their state," he declared, adding that peace must arrive through a two-state solution that recognizes Israel as a Jewish state. 

If that occurs, Israel "will be the first" to recognize Palestinian statehood, the prime minister said. 

Representatives from the United Nations, the United States, Russia and the European Union -- a group commonly referred to as the Quartet for the Middle East -- discussed the request later Friday, and issued a statement saying the bid is now before the U.N. Security Council.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who made a UN membership bid?
Guess: Palestinian President Mahoud Abbas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and what country is expected to veto it?
Guess: American
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who thinks they should first be at peace with the Jewish state?
Guess: Netanyahu
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who held talks about this?
Guess: United Nations, the United States, Russia and the European Union
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And is there a name for them?
Guess: the Quartet for the Middle East
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who has to make the decison now?
Guess: the U.N. Security Council.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are the Palestinians armed with?
Guess: 10,000 missiles
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anything else?
Guess: lethal weapons flowing into Gaza
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who supplied them with rockets?
Guess: Iran
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How will the Palestinians get their state?

they should first make peace with Israel