Here's a short story:

The Organization of American States, or the OAS or OEA, is a continental organization founded on 30 April 1948, for the purposes of regional solidarity and cooperation among its member states. Headquartered in the United States capital Washington, D.C., the OAS's members are the 35 independent states of the Americas. 

As of 26 May 2015, the Secretary General of OAS is Luis Almagro. 

The notion of an international union in the New World was first put forward by Simón Bolívar who, at the 1826 Congress of Panama (still being part of Colombia), proposed creating a league of American republics, with a common military, a mutual defense pact, and a supranational parliamentary assembly. This meeting was attended by representatives of Gran Colombia (comprising the modern-day countries of Colombia, Ecuador, Panama and Venezuela), Peru, Bolivia, The United Provinces of Central America, and Mexico but the grandly titled "Treaty of Union, League, and Perpetual Confederation" was ultimately ratified only by Gran Colombia. Bolívar's dream soon floundered with civil war in Gran Colombia, the disintegration of Central America, and the emergence of national rather than New World outlooks in the newly independent American republics. Bolívar's dream of American unity was meant to unify Hispanic American nations against external powers. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is Luis Almagro?
Guess: Thee Secretary General of OAS.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does OAS stand for?
Guess: The Organization of American States.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Simón Bolívar do?
Guess: He proposed creating a league of American republics.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what year?
Guess: 1826.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the OAS founded?
Guess: 30 April 1948.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: For what reason?
Guess: For the purposes of regional solidarity and cooperation among its member states.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where are its headquarters?
Guess: Washington, D.C..
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What countries comprise Gran Colombia?
Guess: Colombia, Ecuador, Panama and Venezuela.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who attended the meeting  proposed by Bolivar?
Guess: Representatives of Gran Colombia.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who ratified the "Treaty of Union, League, and Perpetual Confederation"?
Guess: Gran Colombia.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose dream floundered?
Guess: Bolívar's.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Because of what?
Guess: Civil war in Gran Colombia.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was Bolívar's dream of American unity supposed to do?
Guess: Unify Hispanic American nations against external powers.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is another abbreviation for The Organization of American States besides OAS?
Guess: OEA.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many states are there in it?
Guess: 35.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did Luis Almagro become Secretary General of OAS?
Guess: 26 May 2015.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the Congress of Panama?
Guess: 1826.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was it still part of then?

Colombia.