Here's a short story:

Chinese people call the Spring Festival"Nian". But do you know that Nian was once the name of a monster ? A long time ago, the monster Nian lived in the mountains. It ate animals. But in winter, it could not find food. So it came to villages and ate a lot of people. People were so afraid of Nian that they locked their doors before evening came during the winter. One day, an old man came to a village. He told people there that Nian was afraid of three things----the color red, fire and noise. He told people to play drums and gongs, make big fires and set off fireworks to make Nian go away. On a moonless, cold night, Nian went to the village again. As soon as it opened its big mouth, people made loud noises and made fires. Nian was really afraid and ran away. wherever it went, there was noise and fire. When Nian was tired and could not run anymore, people killed the monster. After that, on the coldest day of winter, people beat drums and gongs, and set off fireworks to celebrate the death of the monster of Nian. They put up red lanterns and have a big dinner without sleeping during the night. In the morning people greet each other happily. So now we have the Spring Festival. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did the monster Nian eat most of they year?
Guess: animals
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did it eat in the winter?
Guess: people
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did people try to protect themselves in the winter, before the old man gave them advice?
Guess: locked their doors
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did Nian feel about noise?
Guess: afraid
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did the people use that to their advantage?
Guess: people killed the monster
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Nian have any colors it was afraid of?
Guess: red
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What instruments did people use to scare the monster away?
Guess: drums and gongs
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When they celebrate the death of the monster what do they make noise with?
Guess: drums and gongs
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What decorations do they put up then?

red lantern