Here's a short story:

Once there was a boy named Fritz who loved to draw. He drew everything. In the morning, he drew a picture of his cereal with milk. His papa said, "Don't draw your cereal. Eat it!" After school, Fritz drew a picture of his bicycle. His uncle said, "Don't draw your bicycle. Ride it!" At nighttime, after he finished washing his face, he drew a picture of the toothpaste on the sink. His mama said, "Don't draw the toothpaste. Brush your teeth!" 

One day Fritz got a splinter in his foot. It hurt. He wanted to take the splinter out. But first, he drew a picture of his foot with the splinter in it. He said, "Now I can remember what my foot looks like with a splinter in it." Then he took the splinter out all by himself. He told his friend Stephen that he took the splinter out all by himself. Stephen did not believe him. Fritz showed him the picture. Then Stephen believed him. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did Fritz enjoy doing?
Guess: drawing
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he draw?
Guess: everything
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he draw in the morning?
Guess: a picture of his cereal
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was his father pleased?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he draw a bicycle?
Guess: After school
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose bike was it?
Guess: his
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was his uncle pleased?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he wash at nighttime?
Guess: his face
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he draw something afterwards?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What?

toothpaste