Here's a short story:

Passage 1 Mobile Phone Madness How much do you love your mobile phone? A Chinese student had to call 110 for help this week after he got his arm stuck in a toilet trying to rescue his mobile phone. After dropping his phone in the toilet, he decided to wrap(,) his arm in newspaper in the hopes of keeping clean. But the newspapers became larger in size in the water, and then even his roommates couldn't help him pull his arm out. So policemen were called and they spent an hour unsticking the stuck student. Passage 2 Crazy Pet Lovers How much do you love your pets? Many people in China are famous for how much they love their pets. They dress them up in fashionable clothing and buy them high quality food. But would they spend 7,000 English pounds (68,000 yuan) on a wedding for their pets? And that's what a couple in Brazil spent on a fancy wedding for their pet Yorkshire terriers( a kind of dog). Passage 3 Oh, rats! When something goes wrong, you can often hear Westerners cry "Oh, rats". But when it comes to Southern China, "Oh, rats!" can mean it's what you want for dinner. According to a report in China Daily, some restaurants in Guangzhou serve rat meat. But, actually, most of those rats are field mice. What would Mickey Mouse say? Passage 4 Liar , liar Here's some news that most women already know. Men tell more lies than women. The London Daily Mail cites a new study that says men tell about three lies a day, while women tell only two lies a day. Men are also less likely to feel guilty about lying, according to this week's survey of 3,000 people by a research organization called One Poll. According to the Poll, lying to our mothers is very popular. But then, so is lying at work. And both men and women will lie when it comes to how much they've drunk. So how easy is it to tell when someone is lying? (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What kind of pet did the Brazilian couple have?
Guess: Yorkshire
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Yorkshire cats?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What do restaurants in Guangzhou sometimes serve?
Guess: rats
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: According to what source?
Guess: China Daily
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: True or False: Lying to your grandparents is popular according to polls.
Guess: false
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who does the poll name as commonly lied to, then?
Guess: mothers
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What will both males and females frequently lie about?
Guess: how much they've drunk
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people did One Poll survey?
Guess: 3,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did the student get stuck in?
Guess: toilet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What part of him was stuck?
Guess: arm
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What country was he from?
Guess: china
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he trying to do?
Guess: rescue his mobile phon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long did it take to free him?
Guess: hour
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: True or False: His roommates freed him.
Guess: false
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they try to help?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much did the Brazilian dog wedding cost in pounds?
Guess: 7,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much is that in yuan?
Guess: 68,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What animal is the "rat meat" usually from?
Guess: field mice
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What source wrote that men lie more than women?

One Pol