Here's a short story:

Today, bicycles are elegantly simple machines that are common around the world. Many people ride bicycles for recreation, whereas others use them as a means of transportation. The first bicycle was invented in Germany in 1818. Because it was made of wood, it wasn't very strong nor did it have pedals .Riders moved it by pushing their feet against the ground. 

In 1839, Kirkpatrick Macmillan, a Scottish blacksmith, invented a much better bicycle. Macmillan's machine had iron-covered wheels to keep them from getting worn down. He also used foot-operated levers, similar to pedals, so his bicycle could be ridden at a quick pace. It didn't look much like the modem bicycle, though, because its back wheel was substantially larger than its front wheel. Although Macmillan's bicycles could be ridden easily, they were never produced in large numbers. 

In 1861, Frenchman Pierre Michaux and his brother Ernest invented a bicycle with an improved pedal mechanism. They called their bicycle a velocipede,but most people called it a "bone shaker" because of the effect of the wood and iron frame. Despite the impolite nickname, the velocipede was a hit. After a few years, the Michaux family was making hundreds of the machines annually, mostly for fun-seeking young people. 

Ten years later, James Starley , an English inventor, made several innovations that revolutionized bicycle design. He made the front wheel many times larger than the back wheel, put a gear on the pedals to make the bicycle more efficient,and lightened the wheels by using wire spokes. Although this bicycle was much lighter and less tiring to ride, it was still clumsy, extremely top-heavy,and ridden mostly for entertainment. 

It wasn't until 1874 that the first truly modern bicycle appeared on the scene. Invented by another Englishman, H. J. Lawson, the safety bicycle would look familiar to today's cyclists. The safety bicycle had equal-sized wheels, which made it easier to ride. Lawson also attached a chain to the pedals to drive the back wheel. By 1893,the safety bicycle had been further improved with air-filled rubber tires, a diamond-shaped frame, and easy braking. With the improvements provided by Lawson;bicycles became extremely popular and useful for transportation. Today, they are built, used, and enjoyed all over the world. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is one of the common vehicle in the world?
Guess: bicycles
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was it invented?
Guess: 1818
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where?
Guess: Germany
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who made a better one then?
Guess: Kirkpatrick Macmillan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was he?
Guess: blacksmith
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was he from?
Guess: Scottland
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How was his wheels?
Guess: iron-covered
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How about the levers?
Guess: foot-operated
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it similar to pedals we have today?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was that bicycle fast enough?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it resemble anything we have today?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who made next improvements?
Guess: Pierre Michaux
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was he from?
Guess: Frence
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What he improved?
Guess: pedal mechanism
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which year was that?
Guess: 1861
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Then who made more improvements?
Guess: James Starley
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What he did?

improved design