Here's a short story:

The term Carnival is traditionally used in areas with a large Catholic presence. However, the Philippines, a predominantly Roman Catholic country, does not celebrate Carnival anymore since the dissolution of the Manila Carnival after 1939, the last carnival in the country. In historically Lutheran countries, the celebration is known as Fastelavn, and in areas with a high concentration of Anglicans and Methodists, pre-Lenten celebrations, along with penitential observances, occur on Shrove Tuesday. In Eastern Orthodox nations, Maslenitsa is celebrated during the last week before Great Lent. In German-speaking Europe and the Netherlands, the Carnival season traditionally opens on 11/11 (often at 11:11 a.m.). This dates back to celebrations before the Advent season or with harvest celebrations of St. Martin's Day. 

Traditionally a carnival feast was the last opportunity to eat well before the time of food shortage at the end of the winter during which one was limited to the minimum necessary. On what nowadays is called vastenavond (the days before fasting) all the remaining winter stores of lard, butter and meat which were left would be eaten, for it would soon start to rot and decay. The selected livestock had in fact already been slaughtered in November and the meat would be no longer preservable. All the food that had survived the winter had to be eaten to assure that everyone was fed enough to survive until the coming spring would provide new food sources. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is a carnival feast?
Guess: an opportunity to eat well
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why would they need to do this?
Guess: before a food shortage
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when is there likely to be a shortage?
Guess: the end of the winter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is vastenavond
Guess: the days before fasting
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what types of foods were consumed
Guess: lard, butter and meat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which countries celebrate Carnival
Guess: Eastern Orthodox nations
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do the Phillipines celebrate?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did they stop?
Guess: after 1939
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the last carnival there called?
Guess: Manila Carnival
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What do Lutheran countries call it?
Guess: Fastelavn
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is Shrove Tuesday?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When does the carnival season traditionally start?
Guess: on 11/11
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What does it coincide with?

harvest celebrations