Here's a short story:

That was my grandmother's first Christmas without Grandfather. When my parents and I arrived at her little house ,we found she had waited up all night for us. Grandfather had always said that the Christmas tree was the most important decoration of all. So first we took out the beautiful tree that was stored in the closet . But the star was _ . It was my grandmother's favorite part of the tree. "Why? It must be somewhere in the closet," my grandmother said. As we opened up boxes one by one and found no star, my grandmother's eyes were full of tears. Grandfather had given it to her some fifty years ago, on their first Christmas together. But on her first Christmas without him, the star was gone. The next morning, my family sat down together to open the presents. "The last gift is to Grandmother from Grandfather," Father said, in a strange voice. "From whom?" There was surprise in my grandmother's voice. "I found this gift in Grandfather's closet when we got the tree down," Mother explained. My grandmother opened the box. There was a shinning golden star and a note in it: Don't be angry with me, dear. I broke your star while putting away the decorations, and I couldn't bear to tell you. I hope it brings you as much happiness as the first one. Merry Christmas! Love, Bryant ,A, B, C, D,. (10) (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is experiencing something for the first time?
Guess: grandmother
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which holiday is it?
Guess: Christmas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is significant about it?
Guess: first Christmas without Grandfather
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did she come to her children’s house?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they go there?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What had she done the night before?
Guess: waited up
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they start to do?
Guess: decorate the Christmas tree Christmas tree
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What were they looking for?
Guess: star
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

Grandfather had given it to her