Here's a short story:

Bob rode his bike to his house on Monday. He wanted to get home to get some yogurt. On Tuesday, Bob looked over his shoulder and saw Matt. Matt was looking around in the fridge. On Friday, Bob walked on the ice. He fell down. Matt had a saying for such things, but he forgot what it was. Matt played ball with a duck. He did not play ball with a dog, cat, or mouse. On Sunday, Bob wrote a lot down on a piece of paper. Bob wrote a lot about his lip. Bob then walked around. Bob took a look at a pan in the kitchen. Bob then walked around in the vegetable garden. Matt was standing in the garden. Matt asked Bob if he wanted to play. Bob said no. Bob did not want to play with anyone. Matt walked away. Bob went inside. Bob walked into the living room and sat on the couch. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who rode their bike?
Guess: Bob
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why did he go home on monday?
Guess: to get some yogurt
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he see on tuesday?
Guess: Matt
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was Matt doing?
Guess: looking around in the fridge
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did bob do on friday?
Guess: walked on the ice
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what happened when he did that?
Guess: he fell down
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Matt have a saying for that which he forgot?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Bob do on Sunday?
Guess: wrote
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did he write about?
Guess: his lip
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he take into the kitchen?
Guess: a look
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who asked bob if he wanted to play?
Guess: Matt
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did bob say
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What room in the house did bob go to afterwards?
Guess: the living room
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he sit down?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On what?
Guess: the couch
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was he writing a lot on?

a piece of paper