Here's a short story:

Christopher Columbus ( ; 20 May 1506) was an Italian explorer, navigator, and colonizer. Born in the Republic of Genoa, under the auspices of the Catholic Monarchs of Spain he completed four voyages across the Atlantic Ocean. Those voyages and his efforts to establish settlements on the island of Hispaniola initiated the permanent European colonization of the New World. 

At a time when European kingdoms were beginning to establish new trade routes and colonies, motivated by imperialism and economic competition, Columbus proposed to reach the East Indies (South and Southeast Asia) by sailing westward. This eventually received the support of the Spanish Crown, which saw a chance to enter the spice trade with Asia through this new route. During his first voyage in 1492, he reached the New World instead of arriving in Japan as he had intended, landing on an island in the Bahamas archipelago that he named San Salvador. Over the course of three more voyages, he visited the Greater and Lesser Antilles, as well as the Caribbean coast of Venezuela and Central America, claiming all of it for the Crown of Castile. 

Columbus was not the first European explorer to reach the Americas, having been preceded by the Viking expedition led by Leif Erikson in the 11th century, but his voyages led to the first lasting European contact with the Americas, inaugurating a period of exploration, conquest, and colonization that lasted several centuries. These voyages thus had an enormous effect on the historical development of the modern Western world. He spearheaded the transatlantic slave trade and has been accused by several historians of initiating the genocide of the Hispaniola natives. Columbus himself saw his accomplishments primarily in the light of spreading the Christian religion. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who led the Vikings?
Guess: Leif Erikson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: 11th century
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who suggested to go to the East Indies?
Guess: Columbus
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he set off?
Guess: 1492
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he land?
Guess: an island
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he want to land?
Guess: Japan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was he from?
Guess: Republic of Genoa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What three things was he known for?
Guess: explorer, navigator, and colonizer.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Columbus accused of by historians?
Guess: initiating the genocide of the Hispaniola natives
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was motivation for Spain to start these voyages?
Guess: establish new trade routes and colonies
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many voyages did he take in total?
Guess: Four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what ocean?
Guess: Atlantic Ocean
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What trade did he help get more popular?

transatlantic slave trade