Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- ISIS has released a new video of British hostage John Cantlie, this time showing him in the Syrian border city of Kobani. 

In a segment that lasts for more than five minutes, Cantlie argues that -- unlike Western media accounts of recent days -- Kobani is mostly under control of the terror group, which calls itself the Islamic state. 

He claims that ISIS fighters are mopping up, and that the all-out battle for the city is over. Kurdish forces in Syria have said the fight is far from finished, and that Iraqi Kurdish forces will soon be joining them. 

Kurdish forces and ISIS militants have been clashing in the key border city for more than a month. On Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 800 people have been killed there since the fighting started. 

The video posted online Monday is the latest ISIS has released of Cantlie, who's been held hostage for nearly two years. 

The British photojournalist, who also wrote several articles for major British newspapers, was kidnapped in November 2012 along with American journalist James Foley. In the first video of him released by the group last month, Cantlie made clear that he was forced to share a message from ISIS. 

The video released Monday portrays Cantlie as a reporter in the field describing Kobani. The hostage, dressed in black, appears close enough to the border to see Turkish flags in the background. 

"It seemed almost like a standup that a CNN correspondent would do in a foreign city," Peter Bergen, CNN national security analyst, said. "It was designed to show that he's relaxed, that what he's saying is accurate. But clearly he's under duress."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who has been holding John Cantlie?
Guess: ISIS
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he there against his will?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long has he been there?
Guess: nearly two years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is he from?
Guess: He's British
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his job?
Guess: a photojournalist
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was he taken?
Guess: 2012
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What month?
Guess: November
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How has he recently been seen?

a video