Here's a short story:

Pretoria, South Africa (CNN) -- A defense attorney Tuesday tried to poke holes in the highly emotional testimony of the first witness in the murder trial of Olympian double-amputee Oscar Pistorius, as another witness said she also heard screams the night model Reeva Steenkamp was killed. 

On the second day of the trial, testimony continued with the questioning of Pistorius' neighbor, Michelle Burger, who said Monday she was awakened by screams, followed by gunshots, when Pistorius shot and killed his girlfriend on Valentine's Day last year. 

Defense attorney Barry Roux attacked Burger's credibility, accusing her of using her husband's statement to craft her own. 

Paragraph by paragraph, Roux pointed out similarities between their two statements. Burger repeatedly explained that the statements were similar because they both heard the same thing. "I'm as honest as I can be to the court," she said. 

Pistorius has admitted he killed Steenkamp but pleaded not guilty, saying that he mistakenly believed he was shooting a burglar. He only realized after firing four shots that his girlfriend was not in bed but in the bathroom he was firing at, his defense team said on his behalf Monday. 

Burger cried when she described the gunfire. "It was awful to hear the shots," she said through tears. 

On Monday, Burger testified that, "Something terrible was happening at that house." She called the shouts and screams "petrifying." 

Roux questioned how Burger had heard the screams from far away: "You heard that out of a closed toilet in a house 177 meters away?"  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What day did Steenkamp die?
Guess: Valentine's Day
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did she die?
Guess: She was shot
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: by who?
Guess: Pistorius
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is he?
Guess: her boyfriend
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is he known for?
Guess: He's an olympian
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is on trial?
Guess: Pistorius
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he do it?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How do you know?
Guess: he admitted it
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he plead quilty?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his excuse for killing her?
Guess: he believed she was a burglar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was she when he shot her?
Guess: the bathroom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many times did he shoot her?

four