Here's a short story:

Baghdad, Iraq (CNN) -- As violence continues to wrack Iraq, another ethnic slaughter may be in the making by Sunni extremists from ISIS. 

ISIS fighters have besieged the ethnic Turkmen Shiite town of Amerli in the north for two months, and its fewer than 20,000 residents are without power and running out of food, water and medical supplies. 

"The situation of the people in Amerli is desperate and demands immediate action to prevent the possible massacre of its citizens," said Nickolay Mladenov, the U.N. secretary-general's special representative for Iraq. 

He said the suffering was "unspeakable" and demanded that the Shiite majority Iraqi government "relieve the siege" on Amerli. 

Small town fights ISIS 

About 5,000 families live in Amerli, which has been under siege for 70 days, according to Dr. Ali Albayati, head of the Turkmen Saving Foundation. He told CNN the town is running without electricity, is out of medicine and can only turn to wells for water. 

Nearly three dozen villages surrounding Amerli are already under ISIS control, Albayati said. The people of Amerli are relying on the Iraqi government to take them out by helicopter or support them with food drops, Albayati said. In the past 10 days, he added, only one flight has delivered food. 

Surrounded on four sides, the 17,400 residents have had to defend themselves with only the help of local police, said Masrwr Aswad of Iraq's Human Rights Commission. 

Their situation echoes the ordeal of Iraq's ethnic Yazidis, whose plight after they were forced to flee into the mountains to escape militants ISIS triggered U.S. aid drops and the first U.S. airstrikes against ISIS.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How long has Amerli been under siege?
Guess: 70 days
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is responsible to them being under siege?
Guess: ISIS
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people reside there?
Guess: fewer than 20,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where are residents going for their water?
Guess: wells
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is reporting this information?
Guess: CNN
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anyone specific?
Guess: Dr. Ali Albayati
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he do?
Guess: head of the Turkmen Saving Foundation
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How is food getting to the people?
Guess: food drops
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is doing the food drops?
Guess: the Iraqi government
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many have there been recently?
Guess: only one
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Have the residents had to defend themselves?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is anyone helping?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who?

local police