Here's a short story:

Alex was happy when he woke up. He was really happy he didn't have to go to a dumb sit down school like his cousins. He was a home school kid. There was lots to do today. He woke Tigerrr, his kitty. They were going to look at the apple trees. He was seeing if he could grow more fruit by feeding them different kinds of food. He fed one chips and he fed one chocolate. He hoped the fruit would taste like apple chocolate! He fed one root beer and he fed another one salad. He fed one of them seaweed. He wrote down how many fruits each tree had, and this is what he found. The root beer tree had five fruits. The tree that was fed chocolate had three. The chip tree had ten. The salad tree had fifteen. The seaweed tree had fifty apples! They were everywhere. "The winner!", said Tigerrr, his paw in the air. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was happy?
Guess: Alex.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

Because he didn't have to go to school.