Here's a short story:

The Space Race was a 20th-century competition between two Cold War rivals, the Soviet Union (USSR) and the United States (US), for supremacy in spaceflight capability. It had its origins in the missile-based nuclear arms race between the two nations that occurred following World War II, enabled by captured German rocket technology and personnel. The technological superiority required for such supremacy was seen as necessary for national security, and symbolic of ideological superiority. The Space Race spawned pioneering efforts to launch artificial satellites, unmanned space probes of the Moon, Venus, and Mars, and human spaceflight in low Earth orbit and to the Moon. The competition began on August 2, 1955, when the Soviet Union responded to the US announcement four days earlier of intent to launch artificial satellites for the International Geophysical Year, by declaring they would also launch a satellite "in the near future". The Soviet Union beat the US to this, with the October 4, 1957 orbiting of Sputnik 1, and later beat the US to the first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, on April 12, 1961. The Space Race peaked with the July 20, 1969 US landing of the first humans on the Moon with Apollo 11. The USSR tried but failed manned lunar missions, and eventually cancelled them and concentrated on Earth orbital space stations. A period of détente followed with the April 1972 agreement on a co-operative Apollo–Soyuz Test Project, resulting in the July 1975 rendezvous in Earth orbit of a US astronaut crew with a Soviet cosmonaut crew. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What began in 1955?
Guess: The Space Race.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: August 2nd.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did it peak?
Guess: 1969.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Month and date?
Guess: July 20th.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who competed?
Guess: USSR and the US.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were they rivals?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: From what war?
Guess: World War II.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What satellite was the first to launch?
Guess: Sputnik 1.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Made by who?
Guess: Soviet Union.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the first man in space from the US?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was?

Yuri Gagarin.