Here's a short story:

CHAPTER TWENTY ONE. 

MORE OF THE RESULTS OF WAR. 

I need not trouble the reader with an account of the meeting with my faithful servant. While we were still engaged in questioning each other, I noticed that the countenance of our friend the scout wore an anxious and almost impatient expression. 

"Anything wrong, Dobri?" I inquired. 

"God knows!" he replied in a solemn tone, which impressed me much. "A rumour has come that the Circassians or the Bashi-Bazouks--I know not which, but both are fiends and cowards--have been to Venilik, and--" 

He stopped abruptly. 

"But that village was in the hands of the Russians," I said, at once understanding his anxiety. 

"It may be so, but I go to see without delay," he replied, "and have only stopped thus long to know if you will go with me. These brutes kill and wound women and children as well as men. Perhaps your services may--Will you go?" 

He spoke so earnestly, and his face looked so deadly pale, that I felt it impossible to refuse him. I was much exhausted by the prolonged labours of the day, but knew that I had reserve strength for an emergency. 

"Give me a few minutes," said I,--"just to get leave, you know. I can't go without leave." 

The scout nodded. In ten minutes I had returned. Meanwhile, Lancey had prepared my horse and his own. Swallowing a can of water, I vaulted into the saddle. It was very dark, but Petroff knew every foot of the country. For several hours we rode at a smart gallop, and then, as day was breaking, drew near to Venilik. As we approached, I observed that the bold countenance of the scout became almost pinched-looking from anxiety. Presently we observed smoke against the sky, and then saw that the village had undoubtedly been burned. I glanced at Petroff nervously. There was no longer a look of anxiety on his face, but a dark vindictive frown.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who asked the king to go with him?
Guess: Dobri
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were they going?
Guess: Venilik.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did Dobri hear had been to Venilik?
Guess: the Circassians or the Bashi-Bazouks
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was supposed to be in control of the town?
Guess: the Russians
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Dobri say the brutes do?
Guess: kill and wound women and childrenen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And men?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who horses did Lancey get ready?
Guess: my horse and his own
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much water did he drink before they left?
Guess: a can
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it daylight?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was very familiar with the area?
Guess: Petroff
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How fast did they travel?
Guess: at a gallop
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they see once they arrived?
Guess: the village had been burned
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was on Petroff's face now?
Guess: a dark vindictive frown.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is this a story of, according to the author?
Guess: the results of war
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Dobri call the Circassians and Bashi-Bazouks?
Guess: fiends and cowards
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did his face look pale when he was asking for his friend to go with him to Venilik?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Was the man already tired from working all day?

yes