Here's a short story:

Greek colonies and communities have been historically established on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea, but the Greek people have always been centered around the Aegean and Ionian seas, where the Greek language has been spoken since the Bronze Age. Until the early 20th century, Greeks were distributed between the Greek peninsula, the western coast of Asia Minor, the Black Sea coast, Cappadocia in central Anatolia, Egypt, the Balkans, Cyprus, and Constantinople. Many of these regions coincided to a large extent with the borders of the Byzantine Empire of the late 11th century and the Eastern Mediterranean areas of ancient Greek colonization. The cultural centers of the Greeks have included Athens, Thessalonica, Alexandria, Smyrna, and Constantinople at various periods. 

The evolution of Proto-Greek should be considered within the context of an early Paleo-Balkan sprachbund that makes it difficult to delineate exact boundaries between individual languages. The characteristically Greek representation of word-initial laryngeals by prothetic vowels is shared, for one, by the Armenian language, which also seems to share some other phonological and morphological peculiarities of Greek; this has led some linguists to propose a hypothetical closer relationship between Greek and Armenian, although evidence remains scant. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where were the Greek people centered?
Guess: around the Aegean and Ionian seas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the 11th century empire associated with Greeks
Guess: Byzantine Empire
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is one place where Greeks were distributed?
Guess: Greek peninsula
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Another?
Guess: the western coast of Asia Minor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is America one of these regions?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: DId these regions coincide with anything?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Washington a cultural center?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is an example of a Greek cultural center?
Guess: Athens
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Any others?
Guess: Thessalonica
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Another?
Guess: Alexandria
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Columbus one of these cultural centers?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Constantinople one?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does the Greek language use prothetic vowels?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What other language is Greek speculated to be close to?
Guess: Armenian
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is there clear and overwhelming evidence of this?

No