Here's a short story:

Jersey (, ; Jèrriais: "Jèrri" ), officially the Bailiwick of Jersey (; Jèrriais: "Bailliage dé Jèrri"), is a Crown dependency of The Crown located near the coast of Normandy, France. Jersey was part of the Duchy of Normandy, whose dukes went on to become kings of England from 1066. After Normandy was lost by the kings of England in the 13th century, and the ducal title surrendered to France, Jersey and the other Channel Islands remained attached to the English crown. 

The bailiwick consists of the island of Jersey, the largest of the Channel Islands, along with surrounding uninhabited islands and rocks collectively named Les Dirouilles, Les Écréhous, Les Minquiers, Les Pierres de Lecq, and other reefs. Although the bailiwicks of Jersey and Guernsey are often referred to collectively as the Channel Islands, the "Channel Islands" are not a constitutional or political unit. Jersey has a separate relationship to the Crown from the other Crown dependencies of Guernsey and the Isle of Man, although all are held by the monarch of the United Kingdom. 

Jersey is a self-governing parliamentary democracy under a constitutional monarchy, with its own financial, legal and judicial systems, and the power of self-determination. The Lieutenant Governor on the island is the personal representative of the Queen. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the official name of Jersey?
Guess: the Bailiwick of Jersey
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does it consist of?
Guess: The bailiwick consists of the island of Jersey, the largest of the Channel Islands, along with surrounding uninhabited islands and rocks collectively named Les Dirouilles, Les Écréhous
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is it located?
Guess: near the coast of Normandy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it an independent country?
Guess: it  is a Crown dependency of The Crown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What country's crown is it a part of?
Guess: the English crown.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What type of democracy does Jersey have?
Guess: parliamentary
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does it have its own financial and legal systems?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are Jersey and Guernsey commonly referred to as?
Guess: the Channel Islands
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is this a political unit?

No