Here's a short story:

Preventing obesity and smoking can save lives, but it doesn't save money, reported researchers. "It was a small surprise, for it is against the common belief," said Pieter Van Baal, who led the study. "But it makes sense. If you live longer, then you cost the health system more." 

The researchers found that from age 20 to 56, obese people racked up the most expensive health costs. But on average, healthy people lived 84 years. Smokers lived about 77 years, and obese people lived about 80 years. Smokers and obese people tended to have more heart disease than healthy people. Therefore in the long run, the thin and healthy group cost about $417, 000, from age 20 on. Smokers cost about $326, 000 and obese people $371, 000. 

"The result throws a bucket of cold water onto the idea, based on guesswork, that obesity is going to cost trillions of dollars," said Patrick Basham, a professor of health politics. "If we're going to worry about the future of obesity, we should stop worrying about its financial impact," he said. 

"The benefits of obesity prevention may not be seen immediately in terms of cost saving in tomorrow's budget, but there are long-term gains," said Van Baal. "These are often immeasurable when it comes to people living longer and healthier lives." In the meanwhile, he said that governments should recognize that successful smoking and obesity prevention programs mean that people will have a longer chance of dying of something more expensive later in life. 

"Lung cancer is a cheap disease to treat because people don't survive very long. But if they are old enough to get Alzheimer's one day, they may survive longer and cost more. We are not advising that governments stop trying to prevent obesity," Van Baal said. "But they should do it for the right reasons." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What age group of obese people had the most expensive health costs?
Guess: 20 to 56,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long did smokers live?
Guess: 77 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How about obese people?
Guess: 80 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the average cost for Smokers?
Guess: $326, 000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about the thin and healthy group?
Guess: $417, 000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Patrick Basham says obesity will cost how much?
Guess: that obesity is going to cost trillions of dollars
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long did healthy people live on average?
Guess: 84 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the role of Patrick Basham?
Guess: a professor of health politics
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Basham said we should stop worrying about what?
Guess: stop worrying about its financial impact
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Does obesity prevention have immediate benefits?

The benefits of obesity prevention may not be seen immediately