Here's a short story:

What do Tom Sawyer and Jumping Frogs have in common? Stories about both of them were created by one man: Mark Twain. Twain was four years old when his family moved to Hannibal, Missouri, located on the west bank of the Mississippi. Twain grew up there and was fascinated with (......) life along the river----the steamboats, the giant lumber rafts, and the people who worked on them. 

The Celebrated Jumping Frog of Calaveras County is one of Twain's best loved short stories, and The Adventures of Tom Sawyer is one of his most famous novels. Both these works are celebrated by events held during National Tom Sawyer Days, which originated in the late 1950s and became national in the 1960s. Children enter their frogs in the jumping contest during National Tom Sawyer Days. There's also a fence painting contest to see who can paint the fastest. The idea for this contest comes from a scene in Tom Sawyer, in which Tom has been told to paint the fence in front of the house he lives in. It's a beautiful day, and he would rather be doing anything else. As his friends walk by, he makes them believe that it's fun to paint, and they join in the "fun". By the end of the day, the fence has three coats of paint! 

Although the story of Tom Sawyer is a fiction, it's based on facts. If you go to Hannibal, you'll see the white fence, which still stands at Twain's boyhood home. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What's one of Mark Twain's most popular novels?
Guess: The Adventures of Tom Sawyer
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What else is celebrated in National Tom Sawyer Days?
Guess: The Celebrated Jumping Frog of Calaveras County
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it an official holiday?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: Missouri
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did it become official?
Guess: The 1960s
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What days is the holiday held on?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's an example of a thing that people do to celebrate it?
Guess: Children enter their frogs in jumping contests.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anything else?
Guess: Fence painting contest
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is Tom Sawyer a real person?

No