Here's a short story:

Betty and I are best friends.Our birthdays are on the same day,so every year we have a birthday party together.But this year,we had a costume party instead. While we were writing the invitation,my mum came in and asked."Why not invite John?"John had been in our class for only a few months,but he was always getting better grades in math than anyone else in class.I wrinkled my nose and said,"Mum,he wears the same pants to school every day.How can he even afford a costume?"Mum said nothing.The next day,mum gave me an envelope with a shopping certificate in it."I thought it would be nice of you to give this to John,"Mum said.But how?We didn't want to make John embarrassed.We discussed it for a long time.Finally,Betty and I had a good idea. On the day of our party,kids arrived,dressed differently.John arrived,in an old sheet ,but still in the same brown pants as usual.We danced,ate snacks and played games in groups.Before eating the birthday cake,Betty said in a loud voice,"Now it's time for the great prize game.It's the following riddle..."It was a math game.None of us was surprised when John came up with the right answer first and walked off with the envelope. Everything went on well as we planned.John wore a new pair of pants and a new shirt the next week.He felt happy.So did we. When we helped others,we need to find a proper way,or we may hurt them in another way. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What sort of party did the friends have this year?
Guess: costume party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the friend's name?
Guess: Betty
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are their birthdays right next to each other?
Guess: on the same day
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What date were the two born?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did the mother tell them to have come to the celebration?
Guess: John
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he good at?
Guess: math
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he new to the school?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did the mother gift him for the celebration?
Guess: a shopping certificate
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were the girls worried that he would be too happy about it?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many activities did they do at the celebration?
Guess: Three
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they have a celebratory pie?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What type of game did they tailor to the boy?
Guess: a math game
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he win?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What item of clothing did they notice he donned every day?
Guess: pants
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did he buy new ones?

yes