Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XIII. 

FLAXEN'S GREAT NEED. 

Flaxen wrote occasionally, during the next year, letters all too short and too far between for the lonely man toiling away on his brown farm. These letters were very much alike, telling mainly of how happy she was, and of what she was going to do by and by, on Christmas or Thanksgiving. Once she sent a photograph of herself and husband, and Anson, after studying it for a long time, took a pair of shears and cut the husband off, and threw him into the fire. 

"That fellow gives me the ague," he muttered. 

Bert did not write, and there was hardly a night that Ans lay down on his bed that he did not wonder where his chum was, especially as the winter came on unusually severe, reminding him of that first winter in the Territory. Day after day he spent alone in his house, going out only to feed the cattle or to get the mail. The sad wind was always in his ears. But with the passage of time the pain in his heart lost its intensity. 

One day he got a letter from Flaxen that startled and puzzled him. It was like a cry for help, somehow. 

"Dear old pap, I wish you was here," and then in another place came the piteous cry, "Oh, I wish I had some folks!" 

All night long that cry rang in the man's head with a wailing, falling cadence like the note of a lost little prairie-chicken.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Is Flaxen a man or woman?
Guess: a woman
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was she married?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was her husband's name?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Anson do to the photo he received?
Guess: He cut it
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: With what?
Guess: shears
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: to get rid of the husband from the photo
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he keep that portion of the photo?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how did he destroy it?
Guess: he threw it into the fire
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was Anson's work?
Guess: he worked on a farm
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did Anson have lots of friends?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the hurt Anson felt get worse?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Flaxen write about in her letters?
Guess: How happy she was and what she was going to do
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were they long letters?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Anson feel he received them often enough?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Flaxen write that surprised Anson?
Guess: Flaxen that startled and puzzled him. It was like a cry for help, somehow. "Dear old pap, I wish you was here," and then in another place came the piteous cry, "Oh, I wish I had some folks!"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he get letters from Bert?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did Anson think about him?
Guess: at night when he lay down on his bed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was there a particular season that made him think of Bert more?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: which season?
Guess: winter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was it a mild winter?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: why did Anson go out during the day?

to feed the cattle or to get the mail