Here's a short story:

On the farm there was a little piggy named Andy. Andy was very sweet, but he was always dirty. He loved to roll around in the mud. None of the other piggies wanted to play with him. He wished they would be his friends. One day he was going on a walk on the farm. He walked by and saw his favorite big tree. He walked farther than he ever had before. He saw a bunch of pretty flowers. Then he saw something that he had never seen before. It was a river! He ran down to the river, shouting with joy. He got down low in the cool water swam around for a bit. He ran back to the farm where the other piggies were. He was finally clean. They all played games until dinner time. When it was time for dessert the piggies each got a cupcake. Looking at all his new friends, Andy smiled and took a big bite of his tasty treat. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What was Andy?
Guess: a pig
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where did he live?

On the farm