Here's a short story:

Unlike the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which is a domestic security service, CIA has no law enforcement function and is mainly focused on overseas intelligence gathering, with only limited domestic collection. Though it is not the only U.S. government agency specializing in HUMINT, CIA serves as the national manager for coordination and deconfliction of HUMINT activities across the entire intelligence community. Moreover, CIA is the only agency authorized by law to carry out and oversee covert action on behalf of the President, unless the President determines that another agency is better suited for carrying out such action. It can, for example, exert foreign political influence through its tactical divisions, such as the Special Activities Division. 

The Executive Office also supports the U.S. military by providing it with information it gathers, receiving information from military intelligence organizations, and cooperating on field activities. The Executive Director is in charge of the day to day operation of the CIA, and each branch of the service has its own Director. The Associate Director of military affairs, a senior military officer, manages the relationship between the CIA and the Unified Combatant Commands, who produce regional/operational intelligence and consume national intelligence. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is an example of a domestic security service?
Guess: the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What agency does not have any law enforcement?
Guess: The CIA
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where do they mostly work?
Guess: mainly focused on overseas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What do they do there?
Guess: ntelligence gathering
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are they the only group allowed to do?
Guess: to carry out and oversee covert action on behalf of the President
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Can the leader have another group do it?
Guess: Yes, if the President determines that another agency is better suited
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What special group can exert foreign political inluence?

CIA