Here's a short story:

Ethiopia, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia"' (የኢትዮጵያ ፌዴራላዊ ዲሞክራሲያዊ ሪፐብሊክ, "yeʾĪtiyoṗṗya Fēdēralawī Dēmokirasīyawī Rīpebilīk" ), is a country located in the Horn of Africa. It shares borders with Eritrea to the north and northeast, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. With over 100 million inhabitants, Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world, as well as the second-most populous nation on the African continent. It occupies a total area of , and its capital and largest city is Addis Ababa. 

Some of the oldest evidence for anatomically modern humans has been found in Ethiopia. It is widely considered as the region from which modern humans first set out for the Middle East and places beyond. According to linguists, the first Afroasiatic-speaking populations settled in the Horn region during the ensuing Neolithic era. Tracing its roots to the 2nd millennium BC, Ethiopia's governmental system was a monarchy for most of its history. In the first centuries AD, the Kingdom of Aksum maintained a unified civilization in the region, followed by the Ethiopian Empire circa 1137. During the late 19th-century Scramble for Africa, Ethiopia was the only territory in Africa to defeat a European colonial power and retain its sovereignty. Many newly-independent nations on the continent subsequently adopted its flag colours. Ethiopia was also the first independent member from Africa of the 20th-century League of Nations and the United Nations. In 1974, the Ethiopian monarchy under Haile Selassie was overthrown by the Derg, a communist military government backed by the Soviet Union. In 1987, the Derg established the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, but it was overthrown in 1991 by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which has been the ruling political coalition since. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what is this about ?
Guess: Ethiopia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is some of the oldest traces of humans from there ?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: it traced roots as far back as when ?
Guess: 2nd millennium
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: ad or bc ?
Guess: BC
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did it have a democrat  government ?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what kind was it ?
Guess: monarchy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what happened in 1991 ?
Guess: it was overthrown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: by who ?
Guess: Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is it still ruling ?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when was it 1st overthrown ?
Guess: 1974
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: under who ?
Guess: Haile Selassie
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: by the what ?
Guess: Derg
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: whats the population ?
Guess: 100 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: and the 2nd most what ?

populous nation