Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Edgar Hernandez didn't expect to learn that he was pre-diabetic at age 16. 

When his mother burst into tears at the doctor's office, it hit him hard. He was 370 pounds and couldn't stand to look at himself. 

It was tough being a fat kid, but things became unbearable in high school. Edgar was seeing a therapist for depression symptoms. He was frequently bullied in gym class. Kids would point at his "fat wobbling everywhere," especially as he struggled to keep up. 

"I tried my best to ignore it. But there were times when I just gave in and started crying," said Edgar, who lives in a suburb of St. Louis and is now 18. 

Everyone in his family had a weight problem; his parents developed type 2 diabetes in their forties. But Edgar was the biggest. 

"He would eat two really big burritos or sandwiches a day, packed with cheese, sour cream, a lot of bread, butter," his older brother Mario said. "He would be watching TV, playing video games." 

After receiving the sobering blood test result at the doctor's office, Edgar went home and cried. And then something new happened: He owned up to his weight problem. 

"It was time to stop blaming others for my choices and make a choice to take responsibility," he said. 

He dried his tears, threw on his jacket and began jogging. He only got about half a mile before he stopped and threw up. 

That was a year and a half ago. Edgar, who is 5-foot-9, went on to drop nearly 200 pounds. He now weighs 185 pounds. He has traded his double-XL shirts and size 48 pants for medium T-shirts and 33-inch pants.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How much did Hernandez weigh?
Guess: 370 pounds
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he diagnosed with?
Guess: depression
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did his mother do in the doctor's office?
Guess: burst in to tears
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he treated well in school?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his reaction to the bullying?
Guess: Ignored or cried
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where does he live?
Guess: suburb of St. Louis
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do his parents have a disease?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it?
Guess: diabetes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How old were they when they were diagnosed?
Guess: in their forties
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WAs evereyone in his family overweight?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he the smallest?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's his brother's name?
Guess: Mario
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he older than Edgar?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Edgar stop blaming others?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How tall is he?
Guess: 5-foot-9,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How much does he weigh now?

185 pounds