Here's a short story:

The War of 1812 (18121815) was a conflict fought between the United States, the United Kingdom, and their respective allies. Historians in Britain often see it as a minor theater of the Napoleonic Wars; in the United States and Canada, it is seen as a war in its own right. 

Since the outbreak of war with Napoleonic France, Britain had enforced a naval blockade to choke off neutral trade to France, which the United States contested as illegal under international law. To man the blockade, Britain impressed American merchant sailors into the Royal Navy. Incidents such as the "Chesapeake–Leopard" Affair inflamed anti-British sentiment. In 1811, the British were in turn outraged by the "Little Belt" Affair, in which 11 British sailors died. British political support for a Native American buffer state, which conducted raids on American settlers on the frontier, hindered American expansion. On June 18, 1812, President James Madison, after receiving heavy pressure from the War Hawks in Congress, signed the American declaration of war into law. Senior figures such as Lord Liverpool and Lord Castlereagh believed it to have been an opportunistic ploy to annex Canada while Britain was fighting a war with France. The view was shared in much of New England. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who signed a declaration for America?
Guess: James Madison
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he do it?
Guess: 1812
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What specific declaration was it?
Guess: American declaration of war
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which war did this begin?
Guess: The War of 1812
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was it between?

he United States, the United Kingdom, and their respective allies