Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Wayne Rooney scored his first goal in open play since March last year to help Manchester United to a 2-1 victory over West Bromwich Albion at the Hawthorns on Saturday. 

The striker scored after just three minutes heading home from a Patrice Evra cross to end his marathon goal drought. 

Football's heroes and villains of 2010 

But United's lead didn't last long as James Morrison fired a spectacular 25-yard equalizer, volleying past Tomasz Kuszczak into the top left corner after 14 minutes. 

And West Brom should have gone ahead in the 62nd minute when referee Chris Foy awarded them a penalty when Rio Ferdinand brought down Jerome Thomas. 

But Peter Odemwingie could only drag his spot kick wide of the Kuszczak's right post. 

It was a miss that the Baggies were quickly made to pay for as Javier Hernandez (who came on for Dimitar Berbatov after 60 minutes) headed home unopposed from a Wayne Rooney corner with quarter of an hour remaining. 

Manchester City kept up the pressure on United with a 1-0 win over Blackpool at Eastlands. 

Adam Johnson's deflected shot found the net after 34 minutes. 

City were the dominant side throughout but Carlos Tevez squandered a series of chances to put the game to bed, including a missed penalty in the first half. 

The win puts City level on points with United on 41 points, but United have two games in hand over Roberto Mancini's men. 

Arsenal enjoyed a comfortable 3-0 win over Birmingham at St Andrews to maintain their title challenge.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who scored his first goal?
Guess: Wayne Rooney
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he help manchester united win?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: March last year
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was the victory against?
Guess: West Bromwich Albion
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long did it take him to score after the game began?
Guess: three minutes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did it end his drought?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who volleyed past tomasz?
Guess: James Morrison
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was west brom given a penalty?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who's shot was deflected?
Guess: Adam Johnson's
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did his shot go in eventually?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: after how long?
Guess: 34 minutes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who failed to end the game by missing a penalty shot?
Guess: Carlos Tevez
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: dud city gained enough points to be even with United?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many games does united have over roberto's men?
Guess: two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: does arsenal have a lead over birmingham?

Yes