Here's a short story:

Babylonia was an ancient Akkadian-speaking state and cultural area based in central-southern Mesopotamia (present-day Iraq). A small Amorite-ruled state emerged in 1894 BC, which contained at this time the minor administrative town of Babylon. Babylon greatly expanded from the small provincial town that it had originally been during the Akkadian Empire (2335-2154 BC) during the reign of Hammurabi in the first half of the 18th century BC, becoming a major capital city. During the reign of Hammurabi and afterwards, Babylonia was called "Māt Akkadī" "the country of Akkad" in the Akkadian language. It was often involved in rivalry with its older fellow Akkadian-speaking state of Assyria in northern Mesopotamia, as well as Elam to the east, in Ancient Iran. Babylonia briefly became the major power in the region after Hammurabi (fl. c. 1792 – 1752 BC middle chronology, or c. 1696 – 1654 BC, short chronology) created a short-lived empire, succeeding the earlier Akkadian Empire, Third Dynasty of Ur, and Old Assyrian Empire; however, the Babylonian empire rapidly fell apart after the death of Hammurabi and reverted back to a small kingdom. 

The Babylonian state, like Assyria to the north, retained the written Akkadian language for official use (the language of its native populace), despite its Northwest Semitic-speaking Amorite founders and Kassite successors, who spoke a language isolate, not being native Mesopotamians. It retained the Sumerian language for religious use (as did Assyria), but already by the time Babylon was founded, this was no longer a spoken language, having been wholly subsumed by Akkadian. The earlier Akkadian and Sumerian traditions played a major role in Babylonian and Assyrian culture, and the region would remain an important cultural center, even under its protracted periods of outside rule. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is this about?
Guess: The Babylonia State
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is that?
Guess: central-southern Mesopotamia (present-day Iraq).
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was it created?
Guess: 1894 BC,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did it have in it?
Guess: minor administrative town of Babylon.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it stay small?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did it get bigger?
Guess: first half of the 18th century BC
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who ruled during this time?
Guess: Hammurabi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did it turn into then?

a major capital city.