Here's a short story:

Minot, North Dakota (CNN) -- A spontaneous burst of applause broke out at a Saturday press conference in Minot, North Dakota, when the city's mayor said the Souris River should crest overnight -- about 12 feet higher than flood stage, but several inches short of what had been feared. 

"This is great news," said Mayor Curt Zimbelman. 

This prediction from the National Weather Service proved a rare bright spot in what has been, and continues to be, a trying time for citizens in Minot and neighboring communities. 

The Souris River, which locals call "The Mouse" after the French translation of its name, flows through the center of Minot, a city of about 36,000. About a third of the city's population is under evacuation orders, while at least 3,000 homes have been flooded. 

One resident, Stuart Dull, told CNN about how he, his wife and two children feverishly packed up their belongings ahead of the approaching waters. What they could move out is stashed in a garage, while the family has found a temporary home in a relative's basement. 

"Words kind of escape me," said Dull, describing his feeling after later sneaking back toward his home and seeing it under water. "It's a sense of despair ... and it's maybe a check on some of the things that you hold dear." 

Stuart Collum said he spotted the silver chimney and black roof of his house, where he has lived since 1968, on Saturday -- with the rest of the dwelling under water.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is happening?
Guess: a press conference
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: About what?
Guess: about a flood warning
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: Minot
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How high will it get?
Guess: 12 feet higher than flood stage
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what ?
Guess: 12 feet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is cresting?
Guess: the Souris River
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is its nickname?
Guess: "The Mouse"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where does it flow?
Guess: through Minot
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How big is the city?
Guess: a city of 36,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many evacuated?
Guess: a third of the city's population
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many houses are gone?

at least 3,000 homes