Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- After years plagued by injuries and scandal, Tiger Woods pulled away from his competition Sunday to capture his first PGA Tour win since September 2009. 

Months after capturing the BMW Championship, Woods became a tabloid fixture for his affairs with several women that led to the end of his marriage. His golf game also suffered significantly in the 3 1/2 years since, thanks in large part to various injuries. 

Yet he had proved successful in the past at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, having won six times before this weekend at the course in his long-time hometown of Orlando, Florida. 

He walked up toward the 18th green Sunday to fervent applause, tipping his hat to fans. He ended up tapping in on that hole for par, to finish five strokes ahead of second-place finisher Graeme McDowell. 

Palmer: The old Tiger will be back 

"It feels really good," Woods told NBC, which covered the event. "(It was) a lot of hard work, I'm so thankful for a lot of people helping me out along the way. It's been tough." 

The tournament's namesake, Arnold Palmer, did not congratulate the winner as expected because of a health problem that led to his going to Dr. P. Phillips Hospital in Orlando. 

Alastair Johnston, chief operating officer of Arnold Palmer Enterprises, explained in a statement that the 83-year-old golf giant's blood pressure -- when checked 15 minutes before Woods wrapped up the contest -- was "at a level where the doctor involved suggested that he go immediately to get more intensive evaluation at the hospital."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who championship did he capture?
Guess: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Had he had success before at an event?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many women did he have affairs with?
Guess: several
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did his golf game suffer because of all the sex?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why did it suffer?
Guess: various injuries.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the result of his affairs with multiple women?
Guess: the end of his marriage.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many years has it been since then?
Guess: 3 1/2
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many times has he previously won the API?

six