Here's a short story:

By-elections also spelled bye-election (known as special elections in the United States, and bypolls in India) are used to fill elected offices that have become vacant between general elections. 

In most cases these elections occur after the incumbent dies or resigns, but they also occur when the incumbent becomes ineligible to continue in office (because of a recall, ennoblement, criminal conviction, or failure to maintain a minimum attendance). Less commonly, these elections have been called when a constituency election is invalidated by voting irregularities. 

In the United States, these contests have been called "special elections" because they do not always occur on Election Day like regular congressional elections. A 2016 study of special elections to the United States House of Representatives found "that while candidate characteristics affect special election outcomes, presidential approval is predictive of special election outcomes as well. Furthermore, we find that the effect of presidential approval on special election outcomes has increased in magnitude from 1995 to 2014, with the 2002 midterm representing an important juncture in the nationalization of special elections." 

The procedure for filling a vacant seat in the House of Commons of England was developed during the Reformation Parliament of the 16th century by Thomas Cromwell; previously a seat had remained empty upon the death of a member. Cromwell devised a new election that would be called by the king at a time of the king's choosing. This made it a simple matter to ensure the seat rewarded an ally of the crown. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the term used for special elections?
Guess: By-elections
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why are they special?
Guess: do not always occur on Election Day
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What sways these elections?
Guess: candidate characteristics
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the main thing?
Guess: presidential approval
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How do you know?  What was done?
Guess: increased in magnitude
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the study done?
Guess: 2016
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On all elections or specific ones?
Guess: specific
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On what offices?
Guess: United States House of Representatives
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it having more of an impact over time?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What year was the turning point?

2002