Here's a short story:

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) is an independent charity that supports, develops and promotes the art forms of the moving image – film, television and game in the United Kingdom. In addition to its annual awards ceremonies, BAFTA has an international, year-round programme of learning events and initiatives offering access to talent through workshops, masterclasses, scholarships, lectures and mentoring schemes in the UK and the USA. 

BAFTA started out as the British Film Academy, was founded in 1947 by a group of directors David Lean, Alexander Korda, Roger Manvell, Laurence Olivier, Emeric Pressburger, Michael Powell, Michael Balcon, Carol Reed, and other major figures of the British film industry. 

David Lean was the founding chairman of the academy. The first Film Awards ceremony took place in May 1949 and honouring the films "The Best Years of Our Lives", "Odd Man Out" and "The World Is Rich". 

The Guild of Television Producers and Directors was set up in 1953 with the first awards ceremony in October 1954, and in 1958 merged with the British Film Academy to form the Society of Film and Television Arts, whose inaugural meeting was held at Buckingham Palace and presided over by HRH The Duke of Edinburgh. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the main subject?
Guess: British Academy of Film and Television Arts
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's its acronym?
Guess: BAFTA)
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did it start as?
Guess: The British Film Academy.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What type of charity is it?
Guess: It develops and promotes the art forms of the moving image.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was it founded?
Guess: 1947
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By one person?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: At least how many were involved?
Guess: 10
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was there profession?
Guess: directors
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what industry?
Guess: film
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: From what country?
Guess: Britain
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was there a founding chairperson?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was he?
Guess: David Lean
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did the Guild begin?
Guess: 1953
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: And its first trophy event?

1954