Here's a short story:

CHAPTER V 

THE DOOM POOL 

Fortune showed itself strangely favourable to the plans of Nahoon and Nanea. One of the Zulu captain's perplexities was as to how he should lull the suspicions and evade the vigilance of his own companions, who together with himself had been detailed by the king to assist Hadden in his hunting and to guard against his escape. As it chanced, however, on the day after the incident of the visit of Maputa, a messenger arrived from no less a person than the great military Induna, Tvingwayo ka Marolo, who afterwards commanded the Zulu army at Isandhlwana, ordering these men to return to their regiment, the Umcityu Corps, which was to be placed upon full war footing. Accordingly Nahoon sent them, saying that he himself would follow with Black Heart in the course of a few days, as at present the white man was not sufficiently recovered from his hurts to allow of his travelling fast and far. So the soldiers went, doubting nothing. 

Then Umgona gave it out that in obedience to the command of the king he was about to start for Ulundi, taking with him his daughter Nanea to be delivered over into the _Sigodhla_, and also those fifteen head of cattle that had been _lobola'd_ by Nahoon in consideration of his forthcoming marriage, whereof he had been fined by Cetywayo. Under pretence that they required a change of veldt, the rest of his cattle he sent away in charge of a Basuto herd who knew nothing of their plans, telling him to keep them by the Crocodile Drift, as there the grass was good and sweet.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who would follow with a black heart?
Guess: Nahoon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were they sent?
Guess: their regiment
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who arrived after the incident?
Guess: a messenger
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the soldiers resist?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was delivering someone?
Guess: Umgona
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was being delivered?
Guess: his daughter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Her name was?
Guess: Nanea
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why was she delivered?
Guess: forthcoming marriage
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What else was delivered?
Guess: cattle
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many?
Guess: fifteen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were they kept?
Guess: by the Crocodile Drift
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

the grass was good and sweet.