Here's a short story:

South Ossetia () is a partially recognised state in the South Caucasus, located in the territory of the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast within the former Georgian SSR. It has a population of 53,000 people who live in an area of 3,900 km, south of the Russian Caucasus, with 30,000 living in its capital city of Tskhinvali. 

South Ossetia declared independence from the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1991. The Georgian government responded by abolishing South Ossetia's autonomy and trying to re-establish its control over the region by force. The crisis escalation led to the 1991–92 South Ossetia War. Georgian fighting against those controlling South Ossetia occurred on two other occasions, in 2004 and 2008. The latter conflict led to the Russo–Georgian War, during which Ossetian and Russian forces gained full "de facto" control of the territory of the former South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast. 

In the wake of the 2008 war, Russia, followed by Nicaragua, Venezuela and Nauru, recognised South Ossetia's independence. Georgia does not recognise the existence of South Ossetia as a political entity, including most of the area in its Shida Kartli region, under the administration of the Provisional Administrative Entity of South Ossetia. Georgia and a significant part of the international community consider South Ossetia to be occupied by the Russian military. South Ossetia relies heavily on military, political and financial aid from Russia. Russia does not allow European Union Monitoring Mission to enter South Ossetia. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: When did South Ossetia become free from the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic?
Guess: 1991
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is it located?
Guess: in the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Within the?
Guess: the former Georgian SSR
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who many people live there?

53,000