Here's a short story:

CHAPTER II 

"THE NEW ART" 

A tall, fair young man stood in the small alcove of Lady Swindon's drawing-room, with his eyes fixed upon the door. He was accurately dressed in the afternoon garb of a London man about town, and carried in his hand, or rather in his hands, for they were crossed behind him, that hall-mark of Western civilization--a well-brushed, immaculate silk hat. Neither in his clothes nor personal appearance was there any striking difference between him and the crowd of other young men who thronged the rooms, except perhaps that he was a trifle better made, and pleasanter to look at than most of them, and that the air of boredom, so apparent on most of their faces and in their manners, was in his case perfectly natural. As a matter of fact, he hated afternoon receptions, and was only waiting for a favourable opportunity to make his exit unnoticed. 

"Paul, my boy, you don't look happy," exclaimed a voice in his ear. 

Paul de Vaux turned upon the new-comer sharply. "Not likely to, Arthur. You know I hate all this sort of thing, and, as far as I can see, it's just a repetition of the usual performance--stale speeches, lionizing, gossip, and weak tea. I consider you've brought me here under false pretences. Where's the startling novelty you promised me?" 

"All in good time," was the cool reply. "You'll thank your stars you're here in a minute or two." 

Paul de Vaux looked at his brother incredulously. "Some sell of yours, I suppose," he remarked. "At any rate, no one here whom I have spoken to seems to be expecting anything unusual."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who stood in the alcove?
Guess: A  young man
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who said Paul didn't look happy?
Guess: Arthur
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's Paul's last name?
Guess: de Vaux
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does he like afternoon receptions?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happens at them?
Guess: stale speeches, lionizing, gossip, and weak tea
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who brought Paul there?
Guess: Arthur
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why did he come?

startling novelty was promised