Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XVI 

"NON PROVEN" 

"There is no doubt," continued the man in the corner, "that what little sympathy the young girl's terrible position had aroused in the public mind had died out the moment that David Graham left the witness-box on the second day of the trial. Whether Edith Crawford was guilty of murder or not, the callous way in which she had accepted a deformed lover, and then thrown him over, had set every one's mind against her. 

"It was Mr. Graham himself who had been the first to put the Procurator Fiscal in possession of the fact that the accused had written to David from London, breaking off her engagement. This information had, no doubt, directed the attention of the Fiscal to Miss Crawford, and the police soon brought forward the evidence which had led to her arrest. 

"We had a final sensation on the third day, when Mr. Campbell, jeweller, of High Street, gave his evidence. He said that on October 25th a lady came to his shop and offered to sell him a pair of diamond earrings. Trade had been very bad, and he had refused the bargain, although the lady seemed ready to part with the earrings for an extraordinarily low sum, considering the beauty of the stones. 

"In fact it was because of this evident desire on the lady's part to sell at _any_ cost that he had looked at her more keenly than he otherwise would have done. He was now ready to swear that the lady that offered him the diamond earrings was the prisoner in the dock.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was in a terrible position?
Guess: the young girl
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who had just left the witness box?
Guess: David Graham
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On what day of the trial?
Guess: second
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who had a lover?
Guess: Edith Crawford
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How was the lover described?
Guess: deformed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Crawford being accused of murder?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were a lot of people against her?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What profession was Mr. Campbell?
Guess: a jeweller
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Of what street?
Guess: High Street
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did a man or woman come into his shop?
Guess: a lady
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what month?
Guess: October
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On what day?
Guess: 25th
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did she offer to sell him?
Guess: a pair of diamond earrings
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he buy them?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What had been very bad for him lately?

Trade