Here's a short story:

He's out there somewhere, an instant icon in the records of American conflict, the final big-game hunter. But a puzzle, too, his identity would be kept a secret for now, and maybe forever. 

He is the unknown shooter. The nameless, faceless triggerman who put a bullet in the head of the world's most notorious terrorist, Bin Laden. 

He's likely between the ages of 26 and 33, says Marcinko, founder of the "SEALs Team 6" that many believe led the attack on Bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan. He'll be old enough to have had time to hurdle the extra training tests required to join the counter-terrorism unit, yet young enough to stand the body-punishing harshness of the job. The shooter's a man, it's safe to say, because there are no women in the SEALs. And there's a good chance he's white, though the SEALs have stepped up efforts to increase the number of minorities in their ranks, Marcinko and Smith say. 

He was probably a high school or college athlete, Smith says, a physical specimen who combines strength, speed and wisdom. "They call themselves 'tactical athletes,'" says Smith, who works with many future SEALs in his Heroes of Tomorrow training program in Severna Park. "It's getting very scientific." 

Marcinko puts it in more conventional terms: "He'll be ripped," says the author of the best-selling autobiography "Rogue Warrior.""He's got a lot of upper-body strength. Long arms. Thin waist. Flat stomach." 

On this point, Greitens departs a bit. "You can't make a lot of physical assumptions," says the author of "The Heart and the Fist: The Education of a Humanitarian, the Making of a Navy SEAL." There are SEALs who are 5 feet 4 and SEALs who are 6 feet 5, Greitens says. In his training group, he adds, there were college football boys who couldn't hack it; those who survived were most often men in good shape, but they also had a willingness to show their concerns in favor of the mission. 

The shooter's probably not the crew-cut , neatly shaven ideal we've come to expect from American fighting forces. "He's bearded, rough-looking, like a street naughty boy," Marcinko supposes. "You don't want to stick out." Marcinko calls it "modified grooming standards." 

His hands will be calloused , Smith says, or just rough enough," as Marcinko puts it. And "he's got frag in him somewhere," Marcinko says, using the battlefield shorthand for "fragments" of bullets or explosive devices. This will not have been the shooter's first adventure. Marcinko estimates that he might have made a dozen or more deployments , tours when he was likely to have dealt with quite a number of dangerous situations, getting ready any time for explosive devices or bullets. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who did the sniper kill?
Guess: Bin Laden
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did he do it?
Guess: bullet in the head
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where'd in the world did it happen?
Guess: Abbottabad
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where's that?
Guess: Pakistan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What group was the shooter with?
Guess: Team 6
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of team is that?
Guess: SEAL
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who's their founder?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are any females on the team?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are the odds the shooter was white?
Guess: good chance
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do they think he was a student athlete?
Guess: probably
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What group is Smith with?
Guess: Heroes of Tomorrow training program
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where's that?
Guess: Severna Park
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who wrote "Rogue Warrior" ?
Guess: Marcinko
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Does he think the shooter is buff?

He'll be ripped