Here's a short story:

All antidepressant drugs are not created equal, according to the authors of one of the few studies that have ever systematically analyzed and compared "new generation" medicines for treating depression. 

What qualities are important in an anti-depressant? Efficacy? Tolerance? Side effects? Cost? 

In the analysis of 12 drugs, two came out on top as the most effective and best tolerated as first-line treatments: sertraline (Zoloft) and escitalopram (Lexapro). Venlafaxine (Effexor) and mirtazapine (Remeron) rounded out the top four for effectiveness, but venlafaxine was also among the four drugs patients were most likely to quit taking because of side effects. Reboxetine (Edronax) was less effective than the rest. 

While psychiatrists treating depressed patients every day have had a sense of which medications are best, the current study "nails it," says Sagar V. Parikh, M.D., of the University of Toronto. Parikh, who wrote a comment accompanying the study that is published in the current issue of The Lancet, says the findings have "enormous implications" because, for the first time, they offer doctors an evidence-based, unbiased way to recommend treatment. And, he adds, they give patients a "gold standard of reliable information," especially since the study's authors plan to make their findings available free on the Web. 

Not so fast, says Gerald Gartlehner, M.D., M.P.H., who coauthored a review of the benefits and risks of the same 12 drugs published last November in the Annals of Internal Medicine. He and his colleagues concluded, based on their review done while Gartlehner was at the RTI-UNC Evidence-Based Practice Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina., that there was no clinically meaningful evidence that any one of the drugs was better than the rest. Instead, they argued, decisions on which drug to use should be based on factors such as cost and side effects.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How many different drugs were analyzed?
Guess: 12
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And what kind of drugs were they?
Guess: antidepressants
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were they all found to be equally effective?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were any identified as being the most effective?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which?
Guess: sertraline and escitalopram
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were any of them definitively the least effective?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which one?
Guess: Reboxetine
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they print the results in a journal?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which one?
Guess: The Lancet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were the results important?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who suggested that?
Guess: Sagar V. Parikh
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And what's his profession?
Guess: a doctor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where does he work?
Guess: University of Toronto
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there universal agreement that the results were important?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who believes that?
Guess: Gerald Gartlehner
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do his coworkers believe it too?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where did they do their work leading to that conclusion?

at the RTI-UNC