Here's a short story:

One afternoon, Kate and her brother Bob went out to play.Kate was eight, and Bob was ten."Let's go to the bridge and we can see fish in the river." said Kate. "I don't know..." Bob said."Mum told us, 'don't go on the bridge.' She said it's dangerous." Kate said, "I am not afraid.Are you?" They walked onto the bridge and began looking for fish in the river.The bridge was a train bridge.Trains went over the bridge three times a day. The children were standing in the middle of the bridge when they heard a loud noise."A train is coming!" Bob shouted."Run!" He ran to the end of the bridge.He was safe. Kate ran, too, but she fell.The train was coming fast.Kate ran towards Bob.She fell again right on the train tracks .There was no time to leave.She had to lie down between the tracks.A few seconds later, the train went over the girl, but she was not hurt at all.She stood up and said to Bob, "Don't tell Mum! Don't tell Mum!" At last their mother found out about the story.She was angry because they went on the bridge.But she was happy that Kate was all right. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What happened when they were in the middle of the bridge?
Guess: they heard a loud noise
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of bridge was it?
Guess: train
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the noise?
Guess: train
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they do when they heard it?
Guess: ran
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they make it?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Both of them?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many times did Kate fall?

twice