Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XII 

Once more the men and women of Theos thronged the streets of their time-worn capital. A thousand torches flared in the open space before the palace. Lanterns and flags waved from all the principal houses and public buildings. Only the great Reist mansion was silent and gloomy, and many questioning eyes were turned towards it. 

"It was the Duke himself who has brought Ughtred of Tyrnaus here," muttered one. "Yet his house is dark and empty, and no man has seen him." 

"There is something strange about it," said another, "and I like not the wolf Domiloff at the shoulder of a Tyrnaus." 

"Please God, the son may not be like the father!" 

"Let us see him," cried another. "Come--shout!" 

So the air shook with the roar of voices, and servants in the blue Tyrnaus livery came out upon the balcony of the brilliantly-lit palace and spread a carpet. But the man whom they longed to see lingered. 

Domiloff argued with him in vain. He was unaccountably obstinate. 

"It is the Duke of Reist who should stand by my side when first I speak to my people," he declared, coolly. "It is he who brought me from England, not you. He must be my sponsor. If he is not here I will wait." 

Domiloff was naturally furious. He had been at considerable pains to insure the absence of Reist from the capital on this occasion, and his inopportune return would amount to a disaster. On the other hand, the populace were fast working themselves up into a state of frenzy. Let this man show himself, and the success of his coup was assured. It was unpardonable hesitation. He trembled with rage. In the King's palace, in his own chamber, he had lost for the moment his hold upon this man. It was the one weak spot in his carefully thought-out scheme. It was the one contingency against which he was comparatively helpless.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What was the name of the city?
Guess: Theos
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were the streets empty?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of city was it?
Guess: The capital.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it a relatively newly-founded city?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the primary source of illumination?
Guess: torches
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was everyone looking at?
Guess: the great Reist mansion
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did that building show signs of activity?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who lived there?
Guess: the Duke
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he bring?
Guess: Ughtred of Tyrnaus
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Had anyone sighted the noble?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was characterized as animal-like?
Guess: Domiloff
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of beast?
Guess: a wolf
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who emerged from the palace?
Guess: servants
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What were they wearing?
Guess: the blue Tyrnaus livery
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were they standing?
Guess: the balcony
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they do?
Guess: spread a carpet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was very angry?
Guess: Domiloff
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who had he ensured would be absent?

Reist