Here's a short story:

"It's this time of year when the weather starts warming up and frogs start breeding - but they haven't been breeding," says John Wilkinson, research and monitoring officer at the Amphibian and Reptile Conservation Trust (ARC). 

Amphibians are just one of the groups of animals that nature observers fear may have problems reproducing this year, as groundwater levels are even lower now than in the infamously dry summer of 1976, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). According to the UK's Centre for Hydrology and Ecology the average rainfall so far this winter has been the lowest since 1972. 

"If ponds dry up totally," says Mr. Wilkinson, "you could have lots of dead tadpoles." Drier and windier conditions could also make it more difficult for juvenile amphibians to survive their journeys between wet habitats. 

But Peter Brotherton, the biodiversity manager for Natural England, says that "drought is part of nature's cycle", and, at present, a lot of animals, plants and insects are still in hibernation. This means that the population picture is unclear. "However, when we get extreme events, we get animals dying," he says. "And what is worrying is that normally at this time of year we expect soil to be near saturation after winter." 

Charlie Kitchin, the RSPB's site manager of the Nene Washes in Cambridgeshire, says the 2,000-acre wetland and grassland area is now struggling following two winters with relatively little winter rain and no flooding. One species that could suffer, he says, is the black-tailed godwit . "There are only 50 breeding pairs in the country, and we have 40 of them, and everything is bone-dry," Mr Kitchin says. 

But one bad nesting season, he says, is "not the end of the world". "One of the features of flood plains is that they're _ anyway," he adds. "But if they fail to breed another year, the population is likely to dip again." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is feared to have reproduction issues?
Guess: Amphibians
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What specific species could fare worse?
Guess: tadpoles
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the last time the average rainfall was this little?
Guess: 1972.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is usually saturated by this time of year?
Guess: the black-tailed godwit .
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does the acronym Defra stand for?
Guess: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the 2,000 - acre wetland in Cambridgeshire calles?
Guess: the Nene Washes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who says drought is a part of nature's cycle?
Guess: Peter Brotherton
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: His occupation?

the biodiversity manager