Here's a short story:

The Republic of Liberia, beginning as a settlement of the American Colonization Society (ACS), declared its independence on July 26, 1847. The United States did not recognize Liberia's independence until during the American Civil War on February 5, 1862. Between January 7, 1822 and the American Civil War, more than 15,000 freed and free-born Black Americans from United States and 3,198 Afro-Caribbeans relocated to the settlement. The Black American settlers carried their culture with them to Liberia. The Liberian constitution and flag were modeled after the United States. In January 3, 1848 Joseph Jenkins Roberts, a wealthy free-born Black American from Virginia who settled in Liberia, was elected as Liberia's first president after the people proclaimed independence. 

Longstanding political tensions from the 27 year rule of William Tubman resulted in a military coup in 1980 that overthrew the leadership soon after his death, marking the beginning of political instability. Five years of military rule by the People's Redemption Council and five years of civilian rule by the National Democratic Party of Liberia were followed by the First and Second Liberian Civil Wars. These resulted in the deaths and displacement of more than half a million people and devastated Liberia's economy. A peace agreement in 2003 led to democratic elections in 2005. Recovery proceeds but about 85% of the population live below the international poverty line. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was in charge during a long period of stress?
Guess: William Tubman
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of stress was it?
Guess: political
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long was he in charge?
Guess: 27 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened after he died?
Guess: a military coup
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was this?
Guess: in 1980
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the rebellion successful?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it stabilize the region?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was all this?
Guess: The Republic of Liberia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it start out independent?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was it a part of?
Guess: the American Colonization Society
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it ever become independent?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: on July 26, 1847
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the US immediately accept this?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they ever?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: February 5, 1862
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was their first leader?
Guess: Joseph Jenkins Roberts
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How poor was he?
Guess: He was wealthy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was he from?
Guess: Virginia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did they have democracy?
Guess: 2005
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many of them are above the poor standard?

about 15%