Here's a short story:

The Kingdom of Prussia () was a German kingdom that constituted the state of Prussia between 1701 and 1918 and included parts of present-day Germany, Poland, Russia, Lithuania, Denmark, Belgium and the Czech Republic. It was the driving force behind the unification of Germany in 1871 and was the leading state of the German Empire until its dissolution in 1918. Although it took its name from the region called Prussia, it was based in the Margraviate of Brandenburg, where its capital was Berlin. 

The kings of Prussia were from the House of Hohenzollern. Prussia was a great power from the time it became a kingdom, through its predecessor, Brandenburg-Prussia, which became a military power under Frederick William, known as "The Great Elector". Prussia continued its rise to power under the guidance of Frederick II, more commonly known as Frederick the Great, the third son of Frederick William I. Frederick the Great was instrumental in starting the Seven Years' War, holding his own against Austria, Russia, France and Sweden and establishing Prussia’s role in the German states, as well as establishing the country as a European great power. After the might of Prussia was revealed it was considered as a major power among the German states. Throughout the next hundred years Prussia went on to win many battles, and many wars. It was because of its power that Prussia continuously tried to unify all the German states under its rule. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what is the article about?
Guess: The Kingdom of Prussia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: under who did it become a military power?
Guess: Frederick William
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was also known as?
Guess: The Great Elector
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what war did he start?
Guess: the Seven Years' Wa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: against how many countries?
Guess: Four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: were they all European?
Guess: No Russian is on that continent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: name the other countries
Guess: Austria,  France and Sweden
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was Prussia an asia Kingdom?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: then what?
Guess: European
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did it get the name prussia?
Guess: it took its name from the region called Prussia,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was it's capital?
Guess: Berlin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many present day countries would the German kingdom include?
Guess: Seven
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: could you name a few please?
Guess: Germany, Poland, Russia, Lithuania, Denmark, Belgium and the Czech Republic.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was known as Frederick the Great?
Guess: Frederick II
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was his dad?
Guess: Frederick William I
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was  his the only child?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: was he the first son?

no