Here's a short story:

Michael froze as he heard the voice on the radio saying that a man had been murdered by a bullet that had come from the sky. Thinking that the shot they had fired possibly was the shot that killed Mr. Ward, he immediately drove off. For the next two months, Michael and Joe hid the secret that the bullet had actually shot Mr. Ward. 

During this time, Jenna Ward started to realize life without her father. While Jenna mourned the death of her father, a strange boy started to appear at the front steps of the church. After many nights of watching this boy, she finally recognized that it was Michael who was sitting on the steps every night. 

After months of finding out where the shot came, the police arrived at Michael's house. His dad mentioned the gun that Michael had received from his grandpa at his birthday party. Michael told the police that Joe had borrowed the gun. Upon this, Joe said that the gun had been stolen out of his car along with his CD player. After the police were gone, Michael met Joe and told Joe the gun was under the wood pile in his backyard. 

One day , Michael came home to find the police searching his backyard with metal detectors .When the Sergeant went into the woods behind the house , he came out with a bullet that Joe and he had shot off on his birthday .The bullet matched the one that they had recovered from Mr Ward , but without the gun , the police could not place Michael as the killer. 

With the pressure increasing .Michael finally broke down and realized he had to give up .On a Saturday morning , he went to Jenna's house to confess to her and her mother and then turned himself in . (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was killed?
Guess: Mr. Ward
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was guilty?
Guess: Michael
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was Mr Ward's daughter's name?
Guess: Jenna
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was sitting at the steps of the church?
Guess: Michael
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was Joe?
Guess: Michael's friend
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where did Michael keep the gun?

under the wood pile in his backyard.