Here's a short story:

London (CNN) -- Alex Salmond, Scotland's First Minister, is fond of saying that when the United Nations was first formed in 1945, it had just 50 members. Today, he adds, that figure has risen to almost 200. It's a nice line, although in reality the emergence of a new nation remains relatively rare. 

But there does seem to be a pattern emerging, in Europe and beyond. In Spain (Catalonia) and Belgium (Flanders), as well as the United Kingdom (Scotland), secessionist movements appear to be on the rise. All three have existed for decades, yet they seem particularly lively in the second decade of the 21st century. 

Thus Salmond, who this weekend addresses delegates at the Scottish National Party's annual conference in the Scottish city of Perth, likes to talk of Scotland's "home rule journey" being part of a bigger international trend. His point is clear: "independence," far from being dangerous or unusual, is a natural state of affairs. 

Professor Robert Young, an expert in secession, says all three countries have a history of regional -- or devolved -- government (relatively recently in the case of the UK). "I was considering the old question," he says, "about whether regional government structures aid or inhibit secessionist movements. 

"It seems to me that they aid them, other things being equal. The secessionist party will come to power, sooner or later, because governments become unpopular. If they then govern well, this serves as a further mobilizing mechanism." 

Only recently a secessionist movement, the nationalist party Convergència i Unió first took office in Catalonia in 1980, while in Scotland the SNP formed a minority government in 2007 -- becoming a majority four years later. In Flanders the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, which wants gradual secession from Belgium, recently swept the board in municipal elections.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What seems to be on the rises at the UN?
Guess: Membership.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is Alex Salmond?
Guess: Scotland's First Minister
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the UN formed?
Guess: 1945
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: With how many members?
Guess: 50
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many are there now?
Guess: 200
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is Salmond addressing soon?
Guess: delegates
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: at what?
Guess: Tthe Scottish National Party's annual conference
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: Perth.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he like to talk about?
Guess: The "home rule journey"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his main point?
Guess: "independence," is a natural state of affairs.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does he think it's dangerous?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Robert Young's job?
Guess: Professor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What is he an expert in?

Secession