Here's a short story:

Why are we addicted to upgrades? According to Donald Norman, American author of the book The Design of Everyday Things, "planned obsolescence" is the trick behind the upgrading culture of today's consumer electronics industry. 

The New York Times cited Norman last month, saying that electronics manufactures strategically release new upgrades periodically, both for hardware and software, so that customers on every level feel the need to buy the newest version. 

"This is an old-time trick- they're not inventing anything new," he said. 

Thomas Wensma, a Dutch designer, despises the "planned obsolescence" of companies, as recently reported by UK-based The Guardian. 

Wensma said this is a wasteful system through which companies - many of them producing personal electronics - release shoddy products simply because "they know that, in six months or a year, they'll put out a new one". 

But the new psychology of consumers is part of this system, as Wensma said to the newspaper: "We now want something new, something pretty, the next shiny thing." 

_ 

"It's to the damage of the consumer and the environment," as the New York Times quoted Norman. "But perhaps to the betterment of the stockholder." 

In its most recent fiscal year, Apple's profit margin was more than 21 percent, reported the Los Angeles Times. At Hewlett-Packard, the world's biggest PC manufacturer, it was only 7 percent. 

"Steven Jobs pushed the principle of 'planned obsolescence' to new heights," the newspaper commented on the company's profits and marketing strategy. "Apple's annual upgrades of its products generate sales of millions of units as owners of one year's MacBook or iPhone line up to buy the newest version, even when the changes are incremental." 

Peer pressure 

As to Li Jijia, the need for upgrading his smart phone comes mainly from friends and classmates. When the majority of friends are switching to the latest devices, he worries about feeling left out. 

"Some apps and games require better hardware to run," said Li. "If you don't join in, you lose part of the connection to your friends." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was the author of the book?
Guess: Donald Norman
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Name of the book?
Guess: The Design of Everyday Things
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What trick he talked about?
Guess: "planned obsolescence"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What culture it represents?
Guess: upgrading culture
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Of whom?
Guess: today's consumer electronics industry.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did anyone oppose the idea?
Guess: Thomas Wensma
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's his nationality?
Guess: Dutch
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and profession?
Guess: designer
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who reported about him?
Guess: The Guardian.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: From which country?
Guess: the UK
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: going back - who reported about Norman?
Guess: The New York Times
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What upgraded he talked about?
Guess: upgrades for hardware and software
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it give wrong feeling to the customers?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: about what?
Guess: they feel the need to buy the newest version.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Wensma think it's wasteful?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he blame?
Guess: electronics companies
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What they released?
Guess: shoddy products
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What timeline usually they target?

six months or a year