Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Scotland's Paul Lawrie carded a final round seven-under-par 65 on Sunday to win the Qatar Masters by four strokes, his second victory in the tournament. 

The 43-year-old -- who also won in Doha in 1999, the year he went on the lift the British Open -- recorded a 15-under-par aggregate of 201, clear of Australian Jason Day and Sweden's Peter Hanson, in an event reduced to 54 holes because of high winds. 

Holding a one-shot lead after Saturday's second round, Lawrie produced a bogey-free 18 holes, with a brilliant eagle on the par-five ninth the highlight of his round. 

Day matched Lawrie's 65, and briefly threatened after opening with four successive birdies, but two dropped shots soon afterwards halted his charge. 

Meanwhile, Hanson posted a 67 to follow up consecutive 69s to ensure he shared second place. 

"I don't think I can play much better than that," Lawrie told the official European Tour website. 

"I've been playing well for a long, long time, but it's just nice to come out one ahead and shoot seven- under-par. 

"When you've got a chance to win a tournament you don't sleep as well the night before and things go racing through your mind," he added. 

"You've got to get back to basics and I did that. I hit some nice shots coming in." 

John Daly matched his opening 67 to finish alone in fourth place, six shots off the leader, while Sergio Garcia was one of four players who finished a further shot behind.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How old is Paul Lawrie?
Guess: 43
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he score on the last round?
Guess: 65
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What contest did he win?
Guess: Qatar Masters
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much did he win by?
Guess: seven-under-par
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it his first win in the tournament?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What number win was it?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he win in 1999?
Guess: Doha
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was golfing for Australia?
Guess: Jason Day
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and Sweden?
Guess: Peter Hanson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did Lawrie think he could have played much better?

No