Here's a short story:

Jean is a bright young woman from a rich and famous family. She goes to a good university and has almost everything that money can buy. But the people in Jean's family are so busy that they can hardly find time to be with her. In fact, Jean is quite lonely. So Jean spends a lot of her time on QQ. She likes being anonymous talking to people who do not know about her famous family and her rich life. She uses the name Linda on QQ and made a lot of friends. Last year Jean made a very special friend on QQ. His name was David and he lived in San Francisco. David was full of stories and jokes. He and Jean had the same interests in rock music and modern dance. So it always took them many hours to talk happily on QQ and sometimes they even forgot the time. Of course, they wanted to know more about each other. David sent a picture of himself: he was a tall, good-looking young man with big, happy smile. As time went by, they became good friends and often sent cards and small things to each other. When Jean's father told her that he was going on a business trip to San Francisco, she asked him to let her go with him, so that she could give David a surprise for his birthday. She would take him the latest DVD of the rock singer they liked most. But when Jean knocked in David's door in San Francisco, she found that the special friend she had written to was a twelve-year-old boy named Jim! (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How old was Jim?
Guess: twelve
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he impersonate?
Guess: David
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he live?
Guess: San Francisco
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did they meet?
Guess: on QQ
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was her pseudonym?
Guess: Linda
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the online buddy full of?
Guess: stories and jokes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they both like?
Guess: rock music and modern dance
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What photo was sent?
Guess: a picture of David
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did he look?
Guess: tall, good-looking young man with big, happy smile
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who went on a trip?
Guess: Jean and her father
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

Jean's father was going on a business trip