Here's a short story:

CHAPTER IV. AT MEUDON 

Later in the week he received a visit from Le Chapelier just before noon. 

"I have news for you, Andre. Your godfather is at Meudon. He arrived there two days ago. Had you heard?" 

"But no. How should I hear? Why is he at Meudon?" He was conscious of a faint excitement, which he could hardly have explained. 

"I don't know. There have been fresh disturbances in Brittany. It may be due to that." 

"And so he has come for shelter to his brother?" asked Andre-Louis. 

"To his brother's house, yes; but not to his brother. Where do you live at all, Andre? Do you never hear any of the news? Etienne de Gavrillac emigrated years ago. He was of the household of M. d'Artois, and he crossed the frontier with him. By now, no doubt, he is in Germany with him, conspiring against France. For that is what the emigres are doing. That Austrian woman at the Tuileries will end by destroying the monarchy." 

"Yes, yes," said Andre-Louis impatiently. Politics interested him not at all this morning. "But about Gavrillac?" 

"Why, haven't I told you that Gavrillac is at Meudon, installed in the house his brother has left? Dieu de Dieu! Don't I speak French or don't you understand the language? I believe that Rabouillet, his intendant, is in charge of Gavrillac. I have brought you the news the moment I received it. I thought you would probably wish to go out to Meudon." 

"Of course. I will go at once--that is, as soon as I can. I can't to-day, nor yet to-morrow. I am too busy here." He waved a hand towards the inner room, whence proceeded the click-click of blades, the quick moving of feet, and the voice of the instructor, Le Duc.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What chapter is this?
Guess: Chapter IV
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is Andre's godfather?
Guess: Meudon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long ago had he arrived there?
Guess: Two days ago.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Andre know?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he feeling a little excited?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Andre-Louis interested in politics at all this morning?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What language are they presumably speaking?
Guess: French
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is in charge of Gavrillac?
Guess: Rabouillet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Le Chapelier bring the news as soon as he received it?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Andre going to leave today to go?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about on the morrow?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: He's too busy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was making a click-click sound?
Guess: Blades
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: Inner room
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose voice could be heard from there?
Guess: Le Duc
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did Le Chapelier arrive?
Guess: Just before noon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where does he think there may have been some fresh disturbances?
Guess: Brittany
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he exasperated at how out of touch Andre is with news?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who emigrated years ago?

Etienne de Gavrillac