Here's a short story:

Connecticut () is the southernmost state in the New England region of the northeastern United States. As of the 2010 Census, Connecticut features the highest per-capita income, Human Development Index (0.962), and median household income in the United States. Connecticut is bordered by Rhode Island to the east, Massachusetts to the north, New York to the west, and Long Island Sound to the south. Its capital is Hartford and its most populous city is Bridgeport. Although Connecticut is technically part of New England, it is often grouped along with New York and New Jersey as the Tri-state area. The state is named for the Connecticut River, a major U.S. river that approximately bisects the state. The word "Connecticut" is derived from various anglicized spellings of an Algonquian word for "long tidal river". 

Connecticut is the third smallest state by area, the 29th most populous, and the fourth most densely populated of the 50 United States. It is known as the "Constitution State", the "Nutmeg State", the "Provisions State", and the "Land of Steady Habits". It was influential in the development of the federal government of the United States. Much of southern and western Connecticut (along with the majority of the state's population) is part of the New York metropolitan area; three of Connecticut's eight counties are statistically included in the New York City combined statistical area, which is widely referred to as the Tri-State area. Connecticut's center of population is in Cheshire, New Haven County, which is also located within the Tri-State area. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the Tri-State Area?
Guess: Connecticut, New York and New Jersey
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is Connecticut?
Guess: in the New England region of the northeastern United States.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is one of its nicknames?
Guess: Constitution State
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: It was influential in the development of the federal government of the United States.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How is their Index score?
Guess: it is at 0.962
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is to the south of the State?
Guess: Long Island Sound
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is its capital?
Guess: Hartford
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And the city with the most population?
Guess: Bridgeport.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it in the northern part of New England?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Then where?

southernmost