Here's a short story:

The sound of the women washing laundry down at the lake woke Lizzie up. She yawned, stretching out like a lazy cat. Her sister was also awake. "Lizzie", Meghan whispered, "are you awake?" Lizzie nodded and rolled out of bed. Meghan rolled over and went back to sleep. 

As Lizzie walked down the hallway, she accidentally stepped on Ralph's tail. "Woof!" Ralph yelled, in pain. "Sorry, Ralph", said Lizzie. 

Lizzie went down the stairs and into the kitchen. She ate some milk and cereal for breakfast. Then she sat down to write a letter to her dad. As she was writing she heard Ralph playing with his ball. 

Lizzie's dad was a driver for a rich family in England. She had only met her dad in person once, but they wrote letters to each other every week. Her dad was a very busy man, and he did what he had to for his family. Sometimes Lizzie wished she could go to England, too. It wasn't fair that the other girls got to see their dads every day. 

After writing a page, Lizzie stopped. Her hand was covered in the black ink of the pen. She washed her hands and dried them. Then she went outside to wait for the postman. She would mail her letter right away. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What woke Lizzie up?
Guess: The sound of the women washing laundry down at the lake
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did she do after that?
Guess: She yawned, stretching out like a lazy cat.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was her sister awake?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was her name?
Guess: Meghan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Meghan ask?
Guess: are you awake
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did Meghan go back to sleep after that?

yes