Here's a short story:

Des Moines, Iowa (CNN) -- Paul Ryan's four years at Miami University, a bucolic campus nestled in the small town of Oxford, Ohio, helped to shape the Wisconsin congressman's political and ideological views. 

An economics professor named Richard Hart guided Ryan through the classics of conservative economic theory, and Ryan soon came to revere thinkers such as Ludwig von Mises, Ayn Rand, Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman. 

But Ryan, who graduated in 1992, didn't spend all his time in the classroom. 

Ryan was also a Delt -- a member of Delta Tau Delta, one of many fraternities on a campus where Greek life reigns. 

He also had a fondness for turtlenecks apparently. 

That's according to several group photos of the fraternity that appeared in the 1989, 1990 and 1992 editions of Recensio, Miami's yearbook. 

The pictures were passed along by a Democratic researcher sent to Miami's campus after Mitt Romney tapped Ryan as his running mate. 

Ryan is one of many Delta Tau Delta alumni who have entered politics, and the second vice presidential candidate to emerge from the fraternity nationally: Alben Barkley, a longtime senator from Kentucky, was vice president during Harry Truman's second term. 

Other notable Delts from around the country include actor Will Ferrell, journalist Roger Mudd, former NFL star John Elway, former R.E.M. guitarist Peter Buck and Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear. 

Delta Tau Delta brothers on campus at Miami reacted with excitement at the news of Ryan's selection as Romney's No. 2. 

"Pretty damn cool to say that a VP candidate was raging in the same fraternity house as me 20 years ago," tweeted one Miami undergrad Saturday when Romney announced his pick.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who attended a University?
Guess: Paul Ryan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was the name of the University?
Guess: Miami University
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long did he attend?
Guess: Four years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what type of campus was it?
Guess: bucolic
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is the Miami University in Florida?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where is it?
Guess: Oxford, Ohio
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is that a large town?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what type of town is it?
Guess: A small town
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he have a professor?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did he teach?
Guess: Economics
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is the professors name?
Guess: Richard Hart
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did Ryan belong to a fraternity?

Yes