Here's a short story:

Japan ( "Nippon" or "Nihon" ; formally "" or "Nihon-koku", meaning "State of Japan") is a sovereign island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies off the eastern coast of the Asian mainland and stretches from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the southwest. 

The kanji that make up Japan's name mean "sun origin". 日 can be read as "ni" and means "sun", while 本 can be read as "hon" or "pon" and means "origin". Japan is often referred to by the famous epithet "Land of the Rising Sun" in reference to its Japanese name. Japan is a stratovolcanic archipelago consisting of about 6,852 islands. The four largest are Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu and Shikoku, which make up about ninety-seven percent of Japan's land area and often are referred to as home islands. The country is divided into 47 prefectures in eight regions, with Hokkaido being the northernmost prefecture and Okinawa being the southernmost one. The population of 127 million is the world's eleventh largest. Japanese people make up 98.5% of Japan's total population. Approximately 9.1 million people live in the city of Tokyo, the capital of Japan. 

Archaeological research indicates that Japan was inhabited as early as the Upper Paleolithic period. The first written mention of Japan is in Chinese history texts from the 1st century AD. Influence from other regions, mainly China, followed by periods of isolation, particularly from Western Europe, has characterized Japan's history. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: When do they think Japan was inhabited?
Guess: the Upper Paleolithic period.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What type of research did they use to establish this?
Guess: Archaeological
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When is Japan first noted in writing?
Guess: 1st century AD.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was it found?
Guess: Chinese history texts
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is Japan located?
Guess: East Asia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: which ocean is it in?
Guess: Pacific
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the formal meaning of Japan?
Guess: sun origin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How is it often referred by?
Guess: Land of the Rising Sun
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is that in reference to?
Guess: its Japanese name.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many islands does it include?
Guess: about 6,852
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many islands make up 97% of Japan?
Guess: four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are they?
Guess: Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu and Shikoku
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What are they referred to as?

home islands.