Here's a short story:

Jane's doll, Samantha, was a magical doll. Jane kept Samantha hidden from her friends, even Julie, who was her best friend. Jane didn't want all the other girls from school, like Wanda and Ruth, to find out that she had a magical doll. Samantha could do things other dolls couldn't. Jane would whisper in her ear a secret word, and all of a sudden Samantha would come to life, hopping around, running all over. But Samantha did more than run, she could talk. Jane told Samantha everything, and Samantha understood. One day, Jane was naughty and lied to her mother. Jane's mother put Samantha on top of the refrigerator where Jane could not get to her. Jane was very sad. The one person she told everything to was out of her reach. The next day, Jane had one of the worst days of her life. She needed to tell someone, but Julie wasn't around. She needed Samantha. She had no ladder, chair, or stool to reach her. Julie moved the kitchen table forward towards the refrigerator, and hopped on top. She started to climb up to reach for Samantha, and grabbed her quickly. She came down, dropping Samantha on the floor, and broke Samantha. Jane whispered the secret word, but Samantha didn't awake. Samantha's powers were gone. She couldn't walk, run, talk, or listen. Jane hurt her the one person she could trust the most. Then, Samantha moved, looked at Jane, and a tear came from her eye. Samantha's eyes closed, and she was without life. She cried no more. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did Jane have?
Guess: a doll
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it named?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was it?
Guess: Samantha
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was special about it?
Guess: it was magical
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did she keep her?
Guess: hidden
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: from who?
Guess: her friends,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why?
Guess: she didn't want her friends to know
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What could Samantha do?
Guess: things other dolls couldn't
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: like what?
Guess: come to life,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how?
Guess: Jane would whisper a secret word
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did she do then?
Guess: hopping around and running
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did she do more?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what?
Guess: talk
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Jane tell her?
Guess: everything
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did she understand?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What happened one day?

Jane was naughty