Here's a short story:

CHAPTER I 

WYNDHAM PAYS DUTY 

Red reflections trembled on the sea, a fringe of languid surf broke along the beach, and as the liner turned a point, a white town that rose in terraces, glimmered like a pearl. A yellow flag ran up to the masthead, the throb of engines slowed, and a noisy launch steamed out from behind the mole. Marston, leaning on the rail, watched her approach, and his look was thoughtful when he turned to Wyndham. 

"If Don Ramon got our telegram, he's probably on board," he said. "I hope he is, because if he doesn't come it might imply he means to make things difficult for us. He could if he liked." 

"Larrinaga will come," Wyndham replied. "From all accounts, he's a pretty good officer, but I don't expect he neglects his interests while he looks after the State's. I'm counting on this." 

"I s'pose one mustn't be fastidious, but I don't want to get involved in fresh intrigue. The job we've undertaken is awkward enough." 

"Very awkward," Wyndham agreed, with some dryness. "In a way, it looks too big for us. To begin with, we have got to pay duties we dodged, and satisfy the Government we cheated. Then, without exciting the latter's curiosity, we're going to stop a rebellion and carry off its leader. There's the worst puzzle. The fellow's cunning and powerful. Moreover, he's my uncle." 

He stopped, for the engines clanked noisily as the screw turned astern; then the anchor splashed and the launch swung in to the gangway. The port doctor came on board and after him a man in tight-fitting American clothes. His wide black belt was spun from the finest silk and Marston noted his hat. Indians had woven the delicate material under running water; presidents and dictators wore hats like that, and none of the few produced were sent to Europe. It was obvious that Señor Larrinaga was now a man of importance.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Do the characters know if Don Ramon is on board the ship?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why might he be?
Guess: If he got their telegram
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do they want to see him there?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: if he doesn't come he might be making things difficult
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color was the ship's flag?
Guess: Yellow
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are Marston and Wyndham on the ship?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where are they?
Guess: Leaning on the rail at the port
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are they doing there?
Guess: Watching the ship approach
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Have Wyndham and Marston been acting honestly?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What immoral things have they done?
Guess: dodged duties and cheated the government
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What do they have to do after making amends for those things?

stop a rebellion and carry off its leader