Here's a short story:

Two brothers, Herbert and James, lived with their mother and a cat named Edgar. James was particularly devoted to the cat, and when he had to leave town for several days, he left Herbert careful instructions about the pet's care. At the end of his first day away, James telephoned his brother, "How is Edgar?" 

"Edgar is dead." Herbert answered. There was a pause. Then James said, "Herbert, you're insensitive . You know how close I was to Edgar. You should have broken the news to me slowly. When I asked about Edgar tonight, you should have said, 'Edgar's on the roof , but I have called the fire department to get him down.' And tomorrow when I called, you could have said the firemen were having trouble getting Edgar down, but you were hopeful they would succeed. Then when I called the third time, you could have told me that the firemen have done their best, but unfortunately Edgar had fallen off the roof and was at the veterinarian's . Then when I called the last time, you could have said that although everything possible had been done for Edgar, he had died. That's the way a sensitive man would have told me about Edgar. And, oh, before I forget," James added, "how is mother?" 

"Oh," Herbert said, pausing for a moment, "She's on the roof." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What creature is Edgar?
Guess: cat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does Herbert first tell his brother about Edgar?
Guess: he is dead
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who especially cared for Edgar?
Guess: james
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How long did James wait until he first called his brother about Edgar?

same day