Here's a short story:

The concept of Germany as a distinct region in central Europe can be traced to Roman commander Julius Caesar, who referred to the unconquered area east of the Rhine as "Germania", thus distinguishing it from Gaul (France), which he had conquered. The victory of the Germanic tribes in the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest (AD 9) prevented annexation by the Roman Empire, although the Roman provinces of Germania Superior and Germania Inferior were established along the Rhine. Following the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, the Franks conquered the other West Germanic tribes. When the Frankish Empire was divided among Charlemagne's heirs in 843, the eastern part became East Francia. In 962, Otto I became the first emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, the medieval German state. 

In the High Middle Ages, the regional dukes, princes and bishops gained power at the expense of the emperors. Martin Luther led the Protestant Reformation against the Catholic Church after 1517, as the northern states became Protestant, while the southern states remained Catholic. The two parts of the Holy Roman Empire clashed in the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648), which was ruinous to the twenty million civilians living in both parts. The Thirty Years' War brought tremendous destruction to Germany; more than 1/4 of the population and 1/2 of the male population in the German states were killed by the catastrophic war. 1648 marked the effective end of the Holy Roman Empire and the beginning of the modern nation-state system, with Germany divided into numerous independent states, such as Prussia, Bavaria and Saxony. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: when was the Frankish empire divided among Charlemange's heirs?
Guess: 843
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did the two parts of the holy roman empire clash?
Guess: Thirty Years' War
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did that happen?
Guess: 1618–1648
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did it mark the end of?
Guess: Holy Roman Empire
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how was germany divided after that?
Guess: numerous independent states
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how far back can the concept of Germany be traced?
Guess: to Julius Caesar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did he refer to the area as?
Guess: Germania
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is it different than Gaul?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: list some of the independent German states
Guess: Prussia & Bavaria
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: are there any others?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what?
Guess: Saxony
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what battle prevented annexation of the Germanic tribes
Guess: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: when did it happen?

AD 9