Here's a short story:

Moscow, Russia (CNN) -- The mortality rate in Moscow, Russia, has "doubled recently" because of an extended streak of heat and smog, Andrei Seltsovsky, the head of the city health department, told Russian news agencies Monday. 

Seltsovsky said that the average daily mortality rate in Moscow is 360 to 380 cases, but "today the rate is around 700." 

Out of 1,500 slots in city morgues, 1,300 were occupied, he added. 

The death toll directly attributed to the country's recent spate of wildfires remained at 52, the Russian Health and Social Development Ministry said on its website Monday. Another 62 people across Russia were in hospitals with wildfire-related ailments, and in all, 741 people had sought wildfire-related medical assistance, it said. 

CNN iReport: See and share images of Russia wildfires 

The ministry said 22 out of the country's 83 regions, mostly in central Russia, are affected by wildfires. And no relief is in sight, with temperatures forecast to remain high in central and northwestern Russia through August 20. 

The Russian meteorological service Roshydromet said on its website Monday that the level of air pollution will remain high in and around Moscow in the coming days. 

"The air will remain filled with products burning in forest and peat fires, and with toxic emission coming from motor vehicles and industrial enterprises," Roshydromet said. 

It asked Moscow's industrial businesses to start cutting emissions by 20 to 40 percent from 3 p.m. Monday until 3 p.m. Wednesday to help reduce air pollution. 

Alexander Frolov, who heads Roshydromet, appeared live on Russian state TV on Monday. He said high levels of pollutants in the Moscow air pose a serious danger to Muscovites' health.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: In what country does the article take place?
Guess: Russia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is causing health problems?
Guess: heat and smog
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it a brief period of these?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What negative effects have the population felt?
Guess: The mortality rate has doubled
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was is the normal number of people dying in a day in Moscow?
Guess: 360 to 380
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: But what was it increased to?
Guess: 700
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does the article mention another way people are dying in Russia?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the cause of these other deaths?
Guess: Wildfires
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people have been killed in this way?
Guess: 52
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people needed attention from doctors due to the fires?
Guess: 741
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is the entire country affected by the fires?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many regions?
Guess: 22
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What part of the country are those regions in?
Guess: Mostly in central Russia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are temperatures thought to drop soon?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about pollution levels?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the country's weather service called?
Guess: Roshydromet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What has Roshydromet asked of businesses in Moscow?
Guess: to start cutting emissions
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By what percent?
Guess: 20 to 40 percent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: from 3 p.m. Monday until 3 p.m. Wednesday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who's the leader of that agency?

Alexander Frolov