Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XIX 

NOMINATED FOR GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK--A ROUGH RIDER WAY OF CAMPAIGNING--ELECTED GOVERNOR--IMPORTANT WORK AT ALBANY--THE HOMESTEAD AT OYSTER BAY--CHOPPING DOWN A TREE FOR EXERCISE 

The war with Spain was at an end, and Uncle Sam had now to turn his attention to the Philippines, where for many months to come military disturbances of a more or less serious nature were to take place. 

Theodore Roosevelt might have remained in the army, and had he done so there is no doubt but that he would have swiftly risen to a rank of importance. 

But the people of the State of New York willed otherwise. 

"He is a great military man," they said. "But he was likewise a fine Police Commissioner and a Civil Service Commissioner, fighting continually for what was right and good. Let us make him our next governor." 

The convention that nominated Theodore Roosevelt for the highest office in the Empire State met at Saratoga, September 27, 1898, just twelve days after the Rough Riders were mustered out. At that time Frank S. Black was governor of the state, having been elected two years before by a large majority. The governor had many friends, and they said he deserved another term. 

"Roosevelt is not a citizen of this state," said they. "He gave up his residence here when he went to Washington to become Assistant Secretary of the Navy." 

"We don't want him anyway," said other politicians, who had not forgotten how the Rough Rider had acted when in the Assembly. "If he gets into office, it will be impossible to manage him." And they worked night and day to defeat the hero of San Juan Hill.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What branch of the military was Roosevelt in?
Guess: army
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he stay in it?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What other jobs did he hold?
Guess: Police Commissioner
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anything else?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What?
Guess: Civil Service Commissioner
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What state was he popular in?
Guess: New York
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they want from him?
Guess: to elect him
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: To what position?
Guess: the highest office
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHat was the title of that?
Guess: governor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHo was in the position at the time?
Guess: Frank S. Black
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he well liked?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By whom?
Guess: a large majority.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he want Roosevelt to take his job?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: WHy not?
Guess: Roosevelt is not a citizen of this state
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where had he gone?
Guess: Washington
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: to become Assistant Secretary of the Navy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he pick up any nicknames in the military?
Guess: the hero of San Juan Hill.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What conflicts did he fight in?

The war with Spain