Here's a short story:

CHAPTER VII 

THE ARRIVAL OF SONGBIRD 

"So you've made some enemies as well as some friends, eh?" remarked Songbird Powell, after he had been registered, taken up to his room, and had listened to what the Rover boys had to tell. "No use of talking, it doesn't take you fellows long to stir things up!" 

"You said you had a surprise for us, Songbird," returned Tom. "I'm dying by inches to know what it is." 

"Maybe it's a new poem," put in Sam with a grimace at his brothers. 

"I've got a poem--several of them, in fact," answered Songbird, "but I didn't have those in mind when I spoke. Who do you suppose I met yesterday morning, in Ithaca, while I was waiting for the train?" 

"Dora Stanhope and the Lanings," answered Tom promptly. 

"No. Tad Sobber." 

"Tad Sobber!" exclaimed the Rover boys in concert. 

"Songbird, are you sure of it?" demanded Dick. 

"Sure? Wasn't I talking to him!" 

"But--but--I thought he was lost in that hurricane, when the _Josephine_ was wrecked." 

"No. It seems he escaped to a vessel bound for England; but his uncle, Sid Merrick, was lost, and so were most of the others. Sobber just got back from England--came in on one of the ocean liners, so he told me." 

"How did he act?" asked Tom. 

"Where was he going?" added Sam. 

"Did he seem to have any money?" came from Dick. 

All of the Rovers were intensely interested, and showed it plainly. 

"Say, one question at a time, please!" cried Songbird, "You put me in mind of a song I once wrote about a little boy:  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what did Dick ask?
Guess: if Songbird was sure
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did Tom think Songbird had seen?
Guess: Dora Stanhope and the Lanings
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: was it them?

no