Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XLII. 

GEORGE II. A.D. 1725--1760. 

The reign of George II. was a very warlike one. Indeed he was the last king of England who ever was personally in a battle; and, curiously enough, this battle--that of Fontenoy--was the last that a king of France also was present in. It was, however, not a very interesting battle; and it was not clear who really won it, nor are wars of this time very easy to understand. 

The battle of Fontenoy was fought in the course of a great war to decide who would be emperor of Germany, in which France and England took different sides; and this made Charles Edward Stuart, the eldest son of James, think it was a good moment for trying once again to get back the crown of his forefathers. He was a fine-looking young man, with winning manners, and a great deal more spirit than his father: and when he landed in Scotland with a very few followers, one Highland gentleman after another was so delighted with him that they all brought their clans to join him, and he was at the head of quite a large force, with which he took possession of the town of Edinburgh; but he never could take the castle. The English army was most of it away fighting in Germany, and the soldiers who met him at Prestonpans, close to Edinburgh, were not well managed, and were easily beaten by the Highlanders. Then he marched straight on into England: and there was great terror, for the Highlanders--with their plaids, long swords, and strange language--were thought to be all savage robbers, and the Londoners expected to have every house and shop ruined and themselves murdered: though on the whole the Highlanders behaved very well. They would probably have really entered London if they had gone on, and reached it before the army could come home, but they grew discontented and frightened at being so far away from their own hills; and at Derby. Charles Edward was obliged to let them turn back to Scotland.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: When did George the II live?
Guess: 1725 to 1760
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he royalty?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his title?
Guess: king
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: of what country?
Guess: England
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he ever fight a battle?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which one?
Guess: Fontenoy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who were the English fighting?
Guess: France
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they win?
Guess: That is not clear
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why were they fighting?

To decide the emperor of Germany