Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- It's called the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment, and weeks before authorities say he got on a plane with a bomb, Umar Farouk AbdulMutallab was in it. 

The vast government databank, known as TIDE, is administered by the FBI's Terrorist Screening Center. It contains information about hundreds of thousands of people, the majority of them foreign nationals, who are suspected of having terrorist leanings. 

An FBI official said AbdulMutallab was included in TIDE after his father warned the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria of his son's hard-line beliefs and possible ties to militant Islamists. 

To understand how he could have been under the government's scrutiny and still make it onto a U.S.-bound plane with an explosive, you have to understand the way the government's watch list system works. TIDE is just the start. 

The FBI uses the raw information contained in the TIDE databank to determine whether to put the subject onto the government's terror watch list, known as the Terrorism Screening Data Base. That list contains the names and aliases of about 400,000 people, but AbdulMutallab didn't make the cut. 

According to Chad Kolton, a spokesman for the FBI's Terror Screening Center, there wasn't enough hard evidence to back up AbdulMutallab's father's fears, and so he wasn't placed on the terror list. 

The bureau's own Web site spells out the criteria for inclusion in the screening database, saying that "only individuals who are known or reasonably suspected to be or have been engaged in conduct constituting, in preparation for, in aid of, or related to terrorism are included."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: was there hard evidence against him?
Guess: not enough
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what does TIDE stand for?
Guess: Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is TIDE just the start?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who uses the information in TIDE?
Guess: FBI
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who uses the information in TIDE?
Guess: FBI
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which FBI department administers it?
Guess: Terror Screening Center,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the suspect get onto a plane?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where was it going?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who did the father warn?
Guess: the U.S. Embassy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where?
Guess: Nigeria
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many people does TIDE have information on?
Guess: 400,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is the government watchlist known as?
Guess: Terrorism Screening Data Bas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he end up on the list?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what kind of info does FBI use to determine who gets on the list?
Guess: suspected to be or have been engaged in conduct constituting
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who is the FBI spokesman mentioned?
Guess: Chad Kolton
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did he get on the plane with?
Guess: a bomb
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is his full name?
Guess: Umar Farouk AbdulMutallab
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did his father suspect he had ties with?
Guess: militant Islamists
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what did he say about his beliefs?

hard-line