Here's a short story:

Ashton Carter, the former second-in-command at the Pentagon, appears to be the top choice to replace outgoing Secretary Chuck Hagel. 

Barring any last minute complications, Ash Carter will be President Barack Obama's choice as the new Secretary of Defense, several U.S. administration officials told CNN. 

An administration official had said that Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, a former General Counsel at the Pentagon, was also still on the list of possibilities, but on Tuesday morning, sources said Johnson was no longer being considered. The prospect of an additional confirmation hearing for Johnson's replacement if he were to move to the Pentagon as the Senate switches to Republican control would have been problematic for the White House. 

Related: Was Hagel doomed from the start? 

Hagel announced his resignation last week, but has said he will stay on until his successor is confirmed by the Senate. 

Carter, who served as Deputy Defense Secretary under both Leon Panetta and Hagel, would bring a wide range of experience to a department confronting multiple crises in the Middle East and preparing to enter a new phase in Afghanistan as the NATO combat mission ends. 

Carter's ability to hit the ground running from his past experience at the Pentagon, in addition to the respect many senior military leaders have for him are seen as major benefits to winning confirmation should Obama nominate him. 

"His career has sort of prepared him perfectly for this kind of a moment," says Michael O'Hanlon, a defense industry analyst at the Brookings Institution.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: who is the homeland security secretary?
Guess: Jeh Johnson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who resgined last week?
Guess: Hagel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long will he stay?
Guess: until his successor is confirmed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: by?

the Senate