Here's a short story:

The Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George is a British order of chivalry founded on 28 April 1818 by George, Prince Regent, later King George IV, while he was acting as regent for his father, King George III. 

It is named in honour of two military saints, St Michael and St George. 

The Order of St Michael and St George was originally awarded to those holding commands or high position in the Mediterranean territories acquired in the Napoleonic Wars, and was subsequently extended to holders of similar office or position in other territories of the British Empire. It is at present awarded to men and women who hold high office or who render extraordinary or important non-military service in a foreign country, and can also be conferred for important or loyal service in relation to foreign and Commonwealth affairs. 

The Order includes three classes, in descending order of seniority and rank: 

It is used to honour individuals who have rendered important services in relation to Commonwealth or foreign nations. People are appointed to the Order rather than awarded it. British Ambassadors to foreign nations are regularly appointed as KCMGs or CMGs. For example, the former British Ambassador to the United States, Sir David Manning, was appointed a CMG when he worked for the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), and then after his appointment as British Ambassador to the US, he was promoted to a Knight Commander (KCMG). It is the traditional award for members of the FCO. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George?
Guess: a British order of chivalry
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who started it?
Guess: George, Prince Regent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: founded on 28 April 1818
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was George doing at the time?
Guess: acting as regent f
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: for who?
Guess: his father
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who's that?
Guess: King George III
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it given as an award?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How do you get it?
Guess: People are appointed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where does the name come from?
Guess: St Michael and St George
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who were they?
Guess: military saints
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Can anybody get it?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who gets it?
Guess: individuals that rendered important services
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: services to anyone?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: to who?
Guess: Commonwealth or foreign nations
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is David Manning?
Guess: a British Ambassador to the United States
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who did he work for?

FCO