Here's a short story:

With an estimated population of 1,381,069 as of July 1, 2014, San Diego is the eighth-largest city in the United States and second-largest in California. It is part of the San Diego–Tijuana conurbation, the second-largest transborder agglomeration between the US and a bordering country after Detroit–Windsor, with a population of 4,922,723 people. San Diego is the birthplace of California and is known for its mild year-round climate, natural deep-water harbor, extensive beaches, long association with the United States Navy and recent emergence as a healthcare and biotechnology development center. 

Historically home to the Kumeyaay people, San Diego was the first site visited by Europeans on what is now the West Coast of the United States. Upon landing in San Diego Bay in 1542, Juan Rodríguez Cabrillo claimed the entire area for Spain, forming the basis for the settlement of Alta California 200 years later. The Presidio and Mission San Diego de Alcalá, founded in 1769, formed the first European settlement in what is now California. In 1821, San Diego became part of the newly-independent Mexico, which reformed as the First Mexican Republic two years later. In 1850, it became part of the United States following the Mexican–American War and the admission of California to the union. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: When did San Diego become part of the United States?
Guess: 1850
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What group of people is it historically a home to?
Guess: Kumeyaay people
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it the largest city in the United States?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the population?
Guess: 1,381,069
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who claimed the by for Spain?
Guess: uan Rodríguez Cabrillo
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What year was that?
Guess: 1542
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened in 1821?
Guess: It became part of the newly-independent Mexico
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the weather there?
Guess: mild year-round climate,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are there beaches?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What military branch is based there?
Guess: United States Navy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is became part of the US after what war?
Guess: Mexican–American War
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it the largest city in California?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: It is called the "what" of California?
Guess: birthplace
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What else it is known for?
Guess: recent emergence as a healthcare and biotechnology development center.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it part of?
Guess: San Diego–Tijuana conurbation
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is that?
Guess: agglomeration between the US and a bordering country
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who is first largest?

Detroit–Windsor