Here's a short story:

Golden Globe Awards are accolades bestowed by the 93 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association beginning in January 1944, recognizing excellence in film and television, both domestic and foreign. 

The annual ceremony at which the awards are presented is a major part of the film industry's awards season, which culminates each year in the Academy Awards. 

The 74th Golden Globe Awards, honoring the best in film and television in 2016, was broadcast live on January 8, 2017. Jimmy Fallon hosted the show. 

In 1943, a group of writers banded together to form the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and by creating a generously distributed award called the Golden Globe Award, they now play a significant role in film marketing. The 1st Golden Globe Awards, honoring the best achievements in 1943 filmmaking, was held in January 1944, at the 20th Century-Fox studios. Subsequent ceremonies were held at various venues throughout the next decade, including the Beverly Hills Hotel, and the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel. 

In 1950, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association made the decision to establish a special honorary award to recognize outstanding contributions to the entertainment industry. Recognizing its subject as an international figure within the entertainment industry, the first award was presented to director and producer, Cecil B. DeMille. The official name of the award thus became the Cecil B. DeMille Award. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: When was the Hollywood Foreign Press Association started?
Guess: 1943
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What award are they responsible for?
Guess: Golden Globe Award
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did that start?
Guess: 1943
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the first award given?
Guess: January 1944
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: 20th Century-Fox studios
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was that the permanent site of the ceremonies?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are a couple others?
Guess: Beverly Hills Hotel, and the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How often do the give the awards?
Guess: annually
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What industry is it for?
Guess: film
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is this only for Americans?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was the host of the 17th Awards?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about the 74th?
Guess: Jimmy Fallon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was it?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: When was it?

January 8, 2017