Here's a short story:

John Ronald Reuel Tolkien, (; 3 January 1892 – 2 September 1973) was an English writer, poet, philologist, and university professor who is best known as the author of the classic high-fantasy works "The Hobbit", "The Lord of the Rings", and "The Silmarillion". 

He served as the Rawlinson and Bosworth Professor of Anglo-Saxon and Fellow of Pembroke College, Oxford, from 1925 to 1945 and Merton Professor of English Language and Literature and Fellow of Merton College, Oxford, from 1945 to 1959. He was at one time a close friend of C. S. Lewis—they were both members of the informal literary discussion group known as the Inklings. Tolkien was appointed a Commander of the Order of the British Empire by Queen Elizabeth II on 28 March 1972. 

After Tolkien's death, his son Christopher published a series of works based on his father's extensive notes and unpublished manuscripts, including "The Silmarillion". These, together with "The Hobbit" and "The Lord of the Rings", form a connected body of tales, poems, fictional histories, invented languages, and literary essays about a fantasy world called Arda and Middle-earth within it. Between 1951 and 1955, Tolkien applied the term "legendarium" to the larger part of these writings. 

While many other authors had published works of fantasy before Tolkien, the great success of "The Hobbit" and "The Lord of the Rings" led directly to a popular resurgence of the genre. This has caused Tolkien to be popularly identified as the "father" of modern fantasy literature—or, more precisely, of high fantasy. In 2008, "The Times" ranked him sixth on a list of "The 50 greatest British writers since 1945". "Forbes" ranked him the 5th top-earning "dead celebrity" in 2009. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is featured in this article?
Guess: ohn Ronald Reuel Tolkien
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What work is he famous for?
Guess: classic high-fantasy works
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Can you name one?
Guess: The Hobbit
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were there others?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: They were?
Guess: The Lord of the Rings
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Isn't there another?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is he from?
Guess: england
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What famous writer is he friends with?
Guess: C. S. Lewis
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What organization did they belong to?
Guess: Inklings
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How is he popularly known these days?
Guess: father" of modern fantasy literature
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was he born?
Guess: 3 January 1892
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he still living?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he die?
Guess: 2 September
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What year?
Guess: 1973
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Besides writing, what else did he do?
Guess: tales, poems
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his profession?
Guess: English writer, poet, philologist, and university professor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was the name of the place his writings were about?

Arda