Here's a short story:

Zürich or Zurich is the largest city in Switzerland and the capital of the canton of Zürich. It is located in north-central Switzerland at the northwestern tip of Lake Zürich. The municipality has approximately 400,028 inhabitants, the urban agglomeration 1.315 million and the Zürich metropolitan area 1.83 million. Zürich is a hub for railways, roads, and air traffic. Both Zürich Airport and railway station are the largest and busiest in the country. 

Permanently settled for about 2000 years, Zürich was founded by the Romans, who, in 15 BC, called it "". However, early settlements have been found dating back more than 6400 years ago. During the Middle Ages, Zürich gained the independent and privileged status of imperial immediacy and, in 1519, became a primary centre of the Protestant Reformation in Europe under the leadership of Huldrych Zwingli. 

The official language of Zurich is German, but the main spoken language is the local variant of the Alemannic Swiss German dialect. Many museums and art galleries can be found in the city, including the Swiss National Museum and the Kunsthaus. Schauspielhaus Zürich is one of the most important theatres in the German-speaking world. 

Zürich is a leading global city and among the world's largest financial centres despite having a relatively small population. The city is home to a large number of financial institutions and banking giants. Most of Switzerland's research and development centres are concentrated in Zürich and the low tax rates attract overseas companies to set up their headquarters there. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the official language of Zurich?
Guess: German
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What country is it located in?
Guess: Switzerland
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people are in the Zürich metropolitan area?
Guess: 1.83 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long has it been permanently settled for?
Guess: for about 2000 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By who?
Guess: Romans
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: 15 BC
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened in 1519?
Guess: it became a primary centre of the Protestant Reformation in Europe under the leadership of Huldrych Zwingli
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the main spoken language?
Guess: A local variant of the Alemannic Swiss German dialec
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Can you name one of its museums?
Guess: the Swiss National Museum
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about one of its theatres?
Guess: Schauspielhaus Zürich
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is it one of the largest centres of?
Guess: financial centres
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where are most of its research and development centres?
Guess: in Zürich
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What attracts foreign companies there?
Guess: low tax rates
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long ago were the earliest settlements dated there?
Guess: 6400 years ago
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What status did it gain in the Middle Ages?
Guess: the independent and privileged status
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Kunsthaus?
Guess: Museum
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Which lake is it locate at the northwestern tip of?

Lake Zürich