Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Only two Republican presidential candidates will appear on the ballot in Virginia next year, regardless of how many are in the race. 

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will have the Dominion State all to themselves. Supporters of Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann will have to be content with yard signs or donations as ways of cheering on their favorite would-be nominee. 

That's because their campaigns failed to gain the requisite 10,000 signatures. It is, to be sure, a self-inflicted wound, a measure of some organizational chaos. But it is also a function of illogically restrictive local laws. They not only impede ballot access but end up denying open representative democracy to operate on the road to the Oval Office. 

The United States is the only nation in the world, save Switzerland, that does not have uniform federal ballot access laws, according to Ballot Access News, a website run by Richard Winger that is dedicated to the issue. This may reflect the country's closely held federalism, but it can create chaos in a presidential year. In many cases, the rules are imposed by state party bosses who are less interested in democracy than in rigging the system to benefit their favored candidates. 

Take, for example, my home state of New York. It votes reliably Democratic in presidential years, at least since Ronald Reagan thrashed Walter Mondale in 1984. But the state's primary delegates can still be a prize in a protracted Republican nomination fight. In 1999, John McCain had to sue to even have his name appear on the ballot alongside George W. Bush because the Republican state party chair and his committee essentially decided that Bush would be their nominee without the inconvenience of putting it to a vote. Local laws allowed them to restrict ballot access until public pressure and a court injunction overruled their attempted end-run around democracy. Each presidential cycle, the corrupt kabuki continues.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who are the two people on the ballet?
Guess: Mitt Romney and Ron Paul
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why didn't the others get on the ballot?
Guess: their campaigns failed to gain 10,000 signatures.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What countries do not have a federal ballot access law?
Guess: United States and Switzerland
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who said that?
Guess: Ballot Access News
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose it run by?
Guess: Richard Winger
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What side does New York vote?
Guess: Democratic
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What party is John McCain?
Guess: Republican
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about George W. Bush?
Guess: Republican
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the nickname for Virginia?
Guess: Dominion State
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What do the ones who did not get on the ballet have to do to get votes?
Guess: yard signs or donations
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many have to do that?
Guess: Five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is the law unrestrictive for them?

No