Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XLVI. 

OPERATIONS IN MISSISSIPPI--LONGSTREET IN EAST TENNESSEE--COMMISSIONED LIEUTENANT-GENERAL--COMMANDING THE ARMIES OF THE UNITED STATES--FIRST INTERVIEW WITH PRESIDENT LINCOLN. 

Soon after his return from Knoxville I ordered Sherman to distribute his forces from Stevenson to Decatur and thence north to Nashville; Sherman suggested that he be permitted to go back to Mississippi, to the limits of his own department and where most of his army still remained, for the purpose of clearing out what Confederates might still be left on the east bank of the Mississippi River to impede its navigation by our boats. He expected also to have the co-operation of Banks to do the same thing on the west shore. Of course I approved heartily. 

About the 10th of January Sherman was back in Memphis, where Hurlbut commanded, and got together his Memphis men, or ordered them collected and sent to Vicksburg. He then went to Vicksburg and out to where McPherson was in command, and had him organize his surplus troops so as to give him about 20,000 men in all. 

Sherman knew that General (Bishop) Polk was occupying Meridian with his headquarters, and had two divisions of infantry with a considerable force of cavalry scattered west of him. He determined, therefore, to move directly upon Meridian. 

I had sent some 2,500 cavalry under General Sooy Smith to Sherman's department, and they had mostly arrived before Sherman got to Memphis. Hurlbut had 7,000 cavalry, and Sherman ordered him to reinforce Smith so as to give the latter a force of about 7,000 with which to go against Forrest, who was then known to be south-east from Memphis. Smith was ordered to move about the 1st of February.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How many horse riders did someone send?
Guess: 2,500
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who lead them?
Guess: Sooy Smith
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his ranking?
Guess: General
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did someone else have horse fighters?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who?
Guess: Hurlbut
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many?
Guess: 7,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was he supposed to help?
Guess: Smith
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who were they to battle?
Guess: Forrest
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When were they to go?
Guess: about the 1st of February.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where had Sherman been?
Guess: Knoxville
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was he to go?
Guess: Nashville
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did he want to go there?

no