Here's a short story:

Louisville, Kentucky (CNN) -- I'll Have Another cut loose on the home stretch to run down Bodemeister and earn the first Kentucky Derby wins for his rider and trainer Saturday. 

I'll Have Another, with a finish of 2:01:83, earned nearly $1.5 million of the $2.2 million purse. 

That's quite a payoff for a horse that was purchased last year for the modest sum of $35,000. 

Jockey Mario Gutierrez, making his Derby debut, called I'll Have Another a steady competitor. 

"They didn't believe (I'll Have Another) could have made it this far," Gutierrez said. "But even if they wanted me to pick (any horse in the field), I would have stayed with him." 

The winner had 15-1 odds; Bodemeister was at 4-1, according to the Derby website. Dullahan, with 12-1 odds, also made a late run and finished third. 

I'll Have Another defeated Bodemeister by more than one length at the 1Â¼-mile classic, attended by a record Churchill Downs crowd. 

The 138th running was marked by a couple of other Derby firsts: It was the first victory for trainer Doug O'Neill and the first win from the No. 19 post position with a full field. 

O'Neill called Gutierrez "the man" for his own performance. 

"He was just so confident," O'Neill told NBC. "We had such a brilliant race." 

Bob Baffert, a Derby stalwart and the trainer of Bodemeister, said he was "really proud of the way" his horse ran. 

"He just came up a little tired," Baffert told NBC afterward. 

Having won all three races he's participated in this year, O'Neill said he was excited for the next leg of the Triple Crown -- the 137th edition of the Preakness, set for May 19 in Baltimore. "Maryland, here we come," he said.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who won the Kentucky Derby?
Guess: I'll Have Another
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he pull away?
Guess: on the home stretch
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who came in second?
Guess: Bodemeister
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was the jockey?
Guess: Mario Gutierrez
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Has he won the Derby before?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Has he raced in the Derby before?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What were the winning horse's odds?
Guess: 15 to 1
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How much did he win?
Guess: 1.5 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the total amount of money available?
Guess: 2.2 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time did he finish in?
Guess: 2 minutes and 1.83 seconds
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was his trainer?
Guess: Doug O'Neill
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Has he won the Derby before?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many Derbys have their been?
Guess: 138
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who came in third?
Guess: Dullahan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What were Dullahan's odds?
Guess: 12-1
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Dullahan near the front for the whole race?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What big race is next?
Guess: The Triple Crown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Which part of the Triple Crown is next?

the Baltimore leg