Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XXVII 

A DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE 

If Jimmy had entertained any doubts concerning the effectiveness of this disclosure, they would have vanished at the sight of the other's face. Just as the rich hues of a sunset pale slowly into an almost imperceptible green, so did the purple of Sir Thomas's cheeks become, in stages, first a dull red, then pink, and finally take on a uniform pallor. His mouth hung open. His attitude of righteous defiance had crumpled. Unsuspected creases appeared in his clothes. He had the appearance of one who has been caught in the machinery. 

Jimmy was a little puzzled. He had expected to check the enemy, to bring him to reason, but not to demolish him in this way. There was something in this which he did not understand. When Spike had handed him the stones, and his trained eye, after a moment's searching examination, had made him suspicious, and when, finally, a simple test had proved his suspicions correct, he was comfortably aware that, though found with the necklace on his person, he had knowledge, which, communicated to Sir Thomas, would serve him well. He knew that Lady Julia was not the sort of lady who would bear calmly the announcement that her treasured rope of diamonds was a fraud. He knew enough of her to know that she would demand another necklace, and see that she got it; and that Sir Thomas was not one of those generous and expansive natures which think nothing of an expenditure of twenty thousand pounds.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was confused?
Guess: Jimmy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was a fraud?
Guess: diamonds necklace
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose was it?
Guess: Lady Julia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was righteous at first?
Guess: sir thomas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did somebody perform a test?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Jimmy think Lady Julia would insist on?
Guess: another necklace
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Sir Thomas seem generous?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did Jimmy expect to do to the enemy?
Guess: check him
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: But what did he end up doing?
Guess: demolish him
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who handed him the diamonds?
Guess: Spike
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did he feel after looking at them?
Guess: suspicious
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he turn out to be right?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What would Lady Julia make sure of?
Guess: got necklace
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In whose clothes did creases show up?
Guess: sir thomas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And how did he appear?
Guess: like one who has been caught in the machinery.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the necklace have rubies on it?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who had a trained eye?
Guess: Jimmy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color did Sir Thomas' cheeks turn at first?
Guess: red
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What color next?
Guess: pink
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: And then what finally?

uniform pallor