Here's a short story:

Jim was looking up at the sky when he saw it. He saw a bright light. It got brighter and brighter. But after a few seconds, it started getting less bright. It took him a second to know for sure, but he knew he had seen a shooting star! 

This wasn't the first time that Jim had seen something strange in the sky. It was last year, when he was driving home from work at night. He saw another light in the sky that night, but it wasn't anything like this one. The one he saw last year didn't get brighter. The one he saw last year didn't get less bright. The one he saw last year was round, and Jim was sure that it was a space ship. 

When Jim saw the shooting star tonight, he was even more sure of what he saw last year. Some people said that the space ship was really a shooting star. But now that he had seen a real shooting star, he knew for sure that this one was different. 

Jim wondered what planet the space ship had come from. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was looking up at the sky?
Guess: Jim.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he see?
Guess: A bright light.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it get brighter?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What happened after a few seconds?
Guess: It got less bright.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What had he seen?
Guess: A shooting star.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Was this the first time he'd seen something strange in the sky?

No.