Here's a short story:

The Oscars ceremony at the 87th Academy Awards took place in Hollywood's 3,300-seat Dolby Theatre in California on Sunday evening(Feb.23, 2015). The night concluded with the biggest award of the evening, Best Picture. After already securing the Best Screenplay and Best Director Award for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman took flight as the winner of the night. 

Competing with 7 other contenders including another much-predicted winner "Boyhood", the top prize of the night was finally awarded to the film "Birdman". The director of "Birdman" was also awarded the Best Director Oscar by the Academy. In addition, the film took home two other awards for Best Original Screenplay and Cinematography. 

Starring Michael Keaton, the dark comedy "Birdman" tells the story of a faded Hollywood star, famous for his roles as the "Birdman superhero", who struggles to win the support and confidence to perform in a different character type in a Broadway show. 

The Academy's Best Leading Actor award went to Eddie Redmayne, for his performance in the film "the Theory of Everything". It was the actor's first nomination and first win. 

Meanwhile, the Best Leading Actress award went to Julianne Moore who plays a college professor who learns that she is suffering from early-onset Alzheimer's disease. 

Patricia Arquette also won her first Oscar for her supporting actress role in the movie "Boyhood", while J.K. Simmons won the Best Supporting Actor in "Whiplash". 

Best foreign Language film went to "Ida", while "Crisis Hotline" won the award for Best Documentary Short Subject. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who does Birdman star?
Guess: Michael Keaton
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What type of show does he need the confidence to perform in?
Guess: A Broadway show.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it a light and fluffy comedy?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it about a current Hollywood star?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who won the Best Leading Actor award?
Guess: Eddie Redmayne.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: For what film?
Guess: The Theory of Everything
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he ever nominated for anything before?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who pretends to be a college professor in another movie?
Guess: Julianne Moore
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did she win anything for her role?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What award does she earn?
Guess: Best Leading Actress
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does she suffer from in her movie?
Guess: Early-onset Alzheimer's disease.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did the Oscars ceremony take place?
Guess: They took place in Hollywood's 3,300-seat Dolby Theatre in California.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: On which day?
Guess: Feb.23, 2015
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it early in the day or later?
Guess: It was later.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the biggest award of the evening?
Guess: Best Picture.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many contenders were there for it?
Guess: Eight
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Which film was predicted to win?

Boyhood