Here's a short story:

Definitions of "Southeast Asia" vary, but most definitions include the area represented by the countries (sovereign states and dependent territories) listed below. All of the states except for East Timor are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The area, together with part of South Asia, was widely known as the East Indies or simply the Indies until the 20th century. Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands[citation needed] are considered part of Southeast Asia though they are governed by Australia.[citation needed] Sovereignty issues exist over some territories in the South China Sea. Papua New Guinea has stated that it might join ASEAN, and is currently an observer. 

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India are geographically considered part of Southeast Asia. Eastern Bangladesh and the Seven Sister States of India are culturally part of Southeast Asia and sometimes considered both South Asian and Southeast Asian. The Seven Sister States of India are also geographically part of Southeast Asia.[citation needed] The rest of the island of New Guinea which is not part of Indonesia, namely, Papua New Guinea, is sometimes included so are Palau, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands, which were all part of the Spanish East Indies.[citation needed] (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: The Andaman Islands are part of which geographic location?
Guess: southeast asia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: But are they part of a country?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which country?
Guess: India
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By the way, is the definition of Southeast Asia not agreed upon?
Guess: Definitions vary,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is ASEAN within SE Asia?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does ASEAN stand for?
Guess: Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there a SE country which is not in ASEAN?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which country?
Guess: East Tinor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is part of India sometimes referred as SE Asia?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which part of New Guinea is not part of Indonesia?
Guess: Papua New Guinea, is sometimes included
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are Palau and Guam also part of it?
Guess: sometimes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are they also part of Spanish East Indies?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which part of SE Asia is ruled by Australia?
Guess: . Christmas Island and the Cocos islands
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's the issue with South China Sea?
Guess: Sovereignty issues
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What is Papua New Guinea's aspiration?

it might join ASEAN,