Here's a short story:

"The Lord of the Rings", one of the best sellers in the new millennium , was made up of three parts--"The Fellow Ship of the Ring", "Two Towers", and "The Return of the King". Millions upon millions of people have read it in over 25 different languages, but fewer know about the author and the history of the composition of the creative masterwork. 

John Ronald Refuel Tolkien was born in South Africa in 1892. His parents died when he was a child. Living in England with his aunt, Tolkien and his cousins made up play languages, a hobby that led to Tolkien's becoming skilled in Welsh, Greek, Gothic, Old Norse and Anglo--Saxon. 

After graduating from Oxford, Tolkien served in World War I. In 1917, while recovering from trench fever he began composing the mythology for The Rings. As a professor of Anglo-Saxon in the 1930s at Oxford, Tolkien was part of an informal discussion group called the Inklings, which included several writers. The group was soon 1istening to chapters of Tolkien's imaginative work "The Hobbit". 

Hobbit was a name Tolkien created for people that could best be described as half-sized members of the English rural class. Hobbits live in hillside holes. One of them,Bilbo Baggins, looks for treasures with a group of dwarves . On the way, he meets the twisted, pitiful creature Gollum, from whom he sees a golden ring that makes the holder invisible. 

One of Tolkien's students persuaded her employer, publisher Allen & Unwind, to look at a draft . The chairman of the firm, Stanley Unwind, thought that the best judge for a Children's book would be his ten-year-old son. The boy earned a shilling for reporting back that the adventure was exciting, and "The Hobbit" was published in 1937. 

It sold so well that Unwind asked for a continuation. Over a dozen years later, in 1954, Tolkien produced "The Lord of the Rings", a series of books so creative that they hold readers both new and old -- after their publication. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who wrote the  Lord of the Rings?
Guess: John Ronald Refuel Tolkien
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was he born?
Guess: 1892
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: South Africa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who raised him
Guess: his aunt
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do for fun with cousins?
Guess: made up play languages
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What real languages did he learn?
Guess: Welsh, Greek, Gothic, Old Norse and Anglo--Saxon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are the 3 sections of the Lord of the Rings?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did he go to school?
Guess: Oxford
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he leave before graduating?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What diid he teach?
Guess: Anglo-Saxon
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his discussion group named?
Guess: the Inklings
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What were hobbits?
Guess: half-sized members of the English rural class
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were they the same thing as dwarves?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where were their homes?
Guess: hillside holes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was one of the hobbits named?

Bilbo Baggins