Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Fernando Alonso ended his 2011 Formula One commitments wearing a Santa Claus outfit and the robes of a Magi, and the Spanish driver hopes next year will bring a return of the old Ferrari spirit. 

The legendary Italian marque has won 31 world titles overall, but none since clinching a 16th constructors' crown in 2008. 

Alonso was fourth in the drivers' standings this year, 135 points behind Red Bull's all-conquering Sebastian Vettel after winning just one race, while teammate Felipe Massa was a massive 274 points off the pace in sixth. 

After being Father Christmas for Ferrari employees at the team's Maranello headquarters, and then one of the Three Wise Men at a sponsors' party, Alonso turned his attentions towards his bid to add a third world title to his 2005 and 2006 successes at Renault. 

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"This is the time when one is always optimistic, but then we must wait for the start of the season to see where we really are. It's true that in the past few days, there was a good feeling at Maranello and there's an air of confidence about it," the 30-year-old told Ferrari's website. 

"We want to reacquaint ourselves with the taste of winning that has eluded us for a while. Last spring, we made important changes to the structure of the technical part of the team and now we have adopted a new approach, a less conservative one, in the design of the new car. 

"The philosophy behind the 2012 car is very different to that of 2011, especially in some key areas like suspension and aerodynamics."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What brand does Fernando Alonso drive for?
Guess: Ferrari
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: For which type of racing?
Guess: Formula One
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How does he rank this year?
Guess: Fourth
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Behind whom?
Guess: Sebastian Vettel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How far behind?
Guess: 135 points
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What brand does he drive for?
Guess: Red Bull
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How old is Alonso?
Guess: 30
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many world titles does he currently have?
Guess: 31
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When were they?
Guess: 2005 and 2006
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is his car this year the same as last year?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How does it differ?
Guess: Suspension and aerodynamics.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What costume did he wear to the sponsors' party?
Guess: wearing a Santa Claus outfit and the robes of a Magi
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where was the employee Christmas party held?

At the team's Maranello headquarters,