Here's a short story:

CHAPTER I 

OUT IN THE STORM 

"Jack, it looks as if we were in for another storm." 

"Yes, and it's starting right now," declared Captain Jack Rover, as he glanced through the trees to the overcast sky. "Don't you hear it on the leaves?" 

"It does beat everything!" declared Andy Rover, his usually bright face clouding a bit. "It has rained enough in the past two weeks to last a year." 

"Do you know, I like these constant rains less than I liked being snowbound up at Cedar Lodge," put in Lieutenant Fred Rover. 

"Oh, there was some fun in being snowbound," declared Randy Rover. "A fellow could go out in it and have the best time ever. But what can a chap do when the rain is coming down to beat the band?" 

"Well, you can go out and get a shower-bath free of charge," commented his twin gaily. 

"I'll take my showers in the gym," was the quick reply. "Gee! listen to that, will you?" 

There was no need for any of the four Rover boys to listen, or to look, either. A blinding flash of lightning had swept the sky, followed almost immediately by a crash of thunder in the woods behind them. Then followed another crash, as of falling timber. 

"It struck a tree, I'll bet a new cap!" exclaimed Jack. 

"Yes, and it was a little bit too close for comfort, too," answered his cousin Fred. 

The thunder and lightning were followed by a sudden rush of wind which caused the trees of the forest to sway violently. Then the downfall of rain increased until it was little short of a deluge.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Does Fred Rover like the rain better than being snowbound?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does Randy Rover think there's fun in being snowbound?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Jack Rover's rank?
Guess: Captain
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Fred's?
Guess: Lieutenant
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many Rover boys total are there?
Guess: four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Are any of them twins?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What Lodge is mentioned?
Guess: Cedar Lodge
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did one of the boys say you could get free of charge in the rain?
Guess: a shower-bath
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did another prefer to take his?
Guess: in the gym
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did Jack bet?

a new cap