Here's a short story:

Estonia (i/ɛˈstoʊniə/; Estonian: Eesti [ˈeːsti]), officially the Republic of Estonia (Estonian: Eesti Vabariik), is a country in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by the Gulf of Finland, to the west by the Baltic Sea, to the south by Latvia (343 km), and to the east by Lake Peipus and Russia (338.6 km). Across the Baltic Sea lies Sweden in the west and Finland in the north. The territory of Estonia consists of a mainland and 2,222 islands and islets in the Baltic Sea, covering 45,339 km2 (17,505 sq mi) of land, and is influenced by a humid continental climate. 

After centuries of Danish, Swedish and German rule the native Estonians started to yearn for independence during the period of national awakening while being governed by the Russian Empire. Established on 24 February 1918, the Republic of Estonia came into existence towards the end of World War I. During World War II, Estonia was then occupied by the Soviet Union in 1940, then Nazi Germany a year later and again in 1944 establishing the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, during the Singing Revolution, the Estonian SSR issued the Estonian Sovereignty Declaration to defy against the illegal Soviet rule. Estonia then restored its independence during the 1991 coup by the Soviets on the night of 20 August 1991. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is on Estonia's northern border?
Guess: the Gulf of Finland,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: western?
Guess: the Baltic Sea
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: southern?
Guess: Latvia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: eastern?
Guess: Lake Peipus and Russia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many Estonian islands are in the Baltic Sea?
Guess: 2,222
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who has ruled Estonia in the past?
Guess: Danish, Swedish and German
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did Estonia last establish its independence?
Guess: 20 August 1991.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How large is the territory?
Guess: 45,339 km2 (17,505 sq mi)
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What part of Europe is it in?
Guess: Baltic region of Northern Europe.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it ever occupied by a different country?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whom?
Guess: Soviet Union
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and?
Guess: Nazi Germany
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: a year later
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was the Singing Revolution?
Guess: In 1988
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: When was he Republic of Estonia first established?

24 February 1918,