Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XXVII 

A LEMON 

That bulwark of _Peaceful Moments_, Pugsy Maloney, was rather the man of action than the man of tact. Otherwise, when, a moment later, he thrust his head up through the trap, he would have withdrawn delicately, and not split the silence with a raucous "Hey!" which acted on John and Betty like an electric shock. 

John glowered at him. Betty was pink, but composed. Pugsy climbed leisurely on to the roof, and surveyed the group. 

"Why, hello!" he said, as he saw Betty more closely. 

"Well, Pugsy," said Betty. "How are you?" 

John turned in surprise. 

"Do you know Pugsy?" 

Betty looked at him, puzzled. 

"Why, of course I do." 

"Sure," said Pugsy. "Miss Brown was stenographer on de poiper till she beat it." 

"Miss Brown!" 

There was utter bewilderment in John's face. 

"I changed my name when I went to _Peaceful Moments_." 

"Then are you--did you--?" 

"Yes, I wrote those articles. That's how I happen to be here now. I come down every day and help look after the babies. Poor little souls, there seems to be nobody else here who has time to do it. It's dreadful. Some of them--you wouldn't believe--I don't think they could ever have had a real bath in their lives." 

"Baths is foolishness," commented Master Maloney austerely, eying the scoured infants with a touch of disfavor. 

John was reminded of a second mystery that needed solution. 

"How on earth did you get up here, Pugsy?" he asked. "How did you get past Sam?"  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Was Pugsy obnoxious?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he scare Betty?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they know each other?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did John feel about this?
Guess: Surprised
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What name did Pugsy know her as?
Guess: Miss Brown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did John?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: When did she change her name?

When she went to Peaceful Moments