Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- Dennis Rodman, the former NBA star and the first American known to have met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was in the secretive country again this past week, purportedly to meet his "friend Kim, the Marshal" and perhaps also, to negotiate for the release of Kenneth Bae, a U.S. citizen detained since November. 

Rodman's second trip to North Korea this year comes months after months of threats of nuclear annihilation from Pyongyang. His desire to help Bae is likely to be registered in the annals of diplomatic history as little more than a little diverting adventure. 

But one never knows. The "Marshal," who has actually never served in the military, might choose to act in a statesmanlike manner and release Bae after another high-spirited soiree with the basketball legend. That would be good news for Bae, who is reportedly in poor health. 

Other detained Americans 

Such a dramatic gesture of goodwill by the reclusive leader would achieve the effect of adding insult to the United States in light of North Korea's recent cancellation of an invitation to the U.S. special envoy on North Korean human rights issues. 

Rodman, of course, is not qualified to carry out negotiations with North Korea on sensitive political issues. Nor does the North Korean leadership see him as a credible conveyor of official message to Washington. 

Kim's unconventional courting of Rodman is about equivalent to his enjoyment of Disney characters and scantily clad women on stage. It's all jolly and trite pleasure. 

Kim's attraction to American icons such as the NBA or Hollywood does not signal a genuine overture to Washington. It does not indicate intentions of reform or opening up of the isolated totalitarian state that imprisons some 1% of its population in political concentration camps.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who visited Kim Jong Un?
Guess: Dennis Rodman
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Has he been to North Korea before?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he call Kim?
Guess: friend Kim, the Marshal
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did his trip have another purpose?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was it?
Guess: to negotiate for the release of a U.S. citizen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is the citizen?
Guess: Kenneth Bae
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why was he detained?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is he healthy?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why does Kim like Dennis Rodman?
Guess: jolly and trite pleasure
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does it mean anything else?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Dennis Rodman a credible liaison?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long has Bae been detained?
Guess: since November
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it likely that he will be released?
Guess: maybe
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Would that be insulting to the United States?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: North Korea's recently cancelled an invitation to the U.S. special envoy on North Korean human rights issues
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Kim attracted to certain American figures?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which professional sports league does he enjoy?
Guess: NBA
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Are there any other American figures he likes?

Hollywood