Here's a short story:

Baptism (from the Greek noun βάπτισμα "baptisma"; see below) is a Christian sacrament of admission and adoption, almost invariably with the use of water, into the Christian Church generally. The canonical Gospels report that Jesus was baptized—a historical event to which a high degree of certainty can be assigned. Baptism has been called a holy sacrament and an ordinance of Jesus Christ. In some denominations, baptism is also called christening, but for others the word "christening" is reserved for the baptism of infants. Baptism has also given its name to the Baptist churches and denominations. 

The usual form of baptism among the earliest Christians was for the candidate to be immersed, either totally (submerged completely under the water) or partially (standing or kneeling in water while water was poured on him or her). While John the Baptist's use of a deep river for his baptism suggests immersion, "The fact that he chose a permanent and deep river suggests that more than a token quantity of water was needed, and both the preposition 'in' (the Jordan) and the basic meaning of the verb 'baptize' probably indicate immersion. In v. 16, Matthew will speak of Jesus 'coming up out of the water'. The traditional depiction in Christian art of John the Baptist pouring water over Jesus' head may therefore be based on later Christian practice." Pictorial and archaeological evidence of Christian baptism from the 3rd century onward indicates that a normal form was to have the candidate stand in water while water was poured over the upper body. Other common forms of baptism now in use include pouring water three times on the forehead, a method called affusion. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Which Greek word is associated with baptism?
Guess: baptisma
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is baptism always christening?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is affusion?
Guess: pouring water three times on the forehead
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who used a deep river?
Guess: John the Baptist
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of baptism do we think he practiced
Guess: immersion
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there archaeological evidence of baptism?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: From when?
Guess: the 3rd century onward
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What form of baptism does it indicate?
Guess: a normal form was to have the candidate stand in water while water was poured over the upper body
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Jesus baptised?\
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By who?
Guess: John the Baptist
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What's the traditional depiction of that?
Guess: John the Baptist pouring water over Jesus' head
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which river did John use?
Guess: a permanent and deep river
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was its name?
Guess: the Jordan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What does Matthew say about Jesus in v. 16?

of Jesus 'coming up out of the water'