Here's a short story:

Black people is a term used in certain countries, often in socially based systems of racial classification or of ethnicity, to describe persons who are perceived to be dark-skinned compared to other given populations. As such, the meaning of the expression varies widely both between and within societies, and depends significantly on context. For many other individuals, communities and countries, "black" is also perceived as a derogatory, outdated, reductive or otherwise unrepresentative label, and as a result is neither used nor defined. 

Different societies apply differing criteria regarding who is classified as "black", and these social constructs have also changed over time. In a number of countries, societal variables affect classification as much as skin color, and the social criteria for "blackness" vary. For example, in North America the term black people is not necessarily an indicator of skin color or majority ethnic ancestry, but it is instead a socially based racial classification related to being African American, with a family history associated with institutionalized slavery. In South Africa and Latin America, for instance, mixed-race people are generally not classified as "black." In South Pacific regions such as Australia and Melanesia, European colonists applied the term "black" or it was used by populations with different histories and ethnic origin. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Is what "black" means consistent across different groups?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it used everywhere?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why not?
Guess: derogatory, outdated, reductive or otherwise unrepresentative label
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is a basic definition?
Guess: persons who are perceived to be dark-skinned
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In comparison to others?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is the term related to slaves?
Guess: North America
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does it indicate skin color there?
Guess: not necessarily
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where aren't mixed race people described as black?
Guess: South Pacific regions
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is a societal construct for being black?
Guess: societal variables affect classification as much as skin color
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where did European colonists use the word black?

South Pacific regions