Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XII. LUCREZIA'S THIRD MARRIAGE 

At about the same time that Burchard was making in his Diarium those entries which reflect so grossly upon the Pope and Lucrezia, Gianluca Pozzi, the ambassador of Ferrara at the Vatican, was writing the following letter to his master, Duke Ercole, Lucrezia's father-in-law elect: 

"This evening, after supper, I accompanied Messer Gerardo Saraceni to visit the Most Illustrious Madonna Lucrezia in your Excellency's name and that of the Most Illustrious Don Alfonso. We entered into a long discussion touching various matters. In truth she showed herself a prudent, discreet, and good-natured lady."(1) 

1 See Gregorovius's Lucrezia Borgia. 

The handsome, athletic Cardinal Ippolito d'Este, with his brothers Sigismondo and Fernando, had arrived in Rome on December 23 with the imposing escort that was to accompany their brother Alfonso's bride back to Ferrara. 

Cesare was prominent in the welcome given them. Never, perhaps, had he made greater display than on the occasion of his riding out to meet the Ferrarese, accompanied by no fewer than 4,000 men-at-arms, and mounted on a great war-horse whose trappings of cloth of gold and jewels were estimated at 10,000 ducats. 

The days and nights that followed, until Lucrezia's departure a fortnight later, were days and nights of gaiety and merry-making at the Vatican; in banquets, dancing, the performance of comedies, masques, etc., was the time made to pass as agreeably as might be for the guests from Ferrara, and in all Cesare was conspicuous, either for the grace and zest with which he nightly danced, or for the skill and daring which he displayed in the daily joustings and entertainments, and more particularly in the bull-fight that was included in them.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who rode out to meet someone?
Guess: Cesare
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: With how many people?
Guess: no fewer than 4,000 men-
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And on what?
Guess: a horse
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: With things worth how much?
Guess: 10,000 ducats
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long was the party?
Guess: days and nights
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was there dancing?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Cesare dance?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What ended the celebration?

Lucrezia's departure