Here's a short story:

Probably no other musical instrument is as popular as the guitar around the world. Musicians use the guitar for almost all kinds of music. Country and western music would not be the same without a guitar. The traditional Spanish folk music called Flamenco could not exist without a guitar. The sound of American blues music would not be the same without the sad cry of the guitar. And rock and roll music would almost be impossible without this instrument. 

Music experts do not agree about where the guitar was first played. Most agree it is ancient. Some experts say an instrument very much like a guitar was played in Egypt more than 1,000 years ago. Most experts say that the ancestor of the modern guitar was brought to Spain from Persia sometime in the 12thcentury. The guitar continued to develop in Spain. In the 1700s it became similar to the instrument we know today. 

Many famous musicians played the instrument. The famous Italian violins Niccole Paganism played and wrote music for the guitar in the early 1800s. Franz Schubert used the guitar to write some of his famous works. In modern times Spanish guitarist Andres Segovia helped make the instrument extremely popular. 

In the 1930s, Les Paul began experimenting to make an electric guitar. He invented the solid-bodied electric guitar in 1946. The Gibson Guitar Company began producing its famous Les Paul Guitar in 1952. It became a powerful influence on popular music. The instrument has the same shape and the same six strings as the traditional guitar, but it sounds very different. Les Paul produced a series of extremely popular recordings that introduced the public to this music. Listen to this Les Paul recording. It was the fifth most popular song in the United States in 1952. It is called "Meet Mister Callaghan." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What muscial instrument is being talked about here?
Guess: the guitar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of music you usually hear a guitar?
Guess: all kinds of music
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was it first played?
Guess: Egypt
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What about the modern guitar?

Spain