Here's a short story:

Fat and shy, Ben Saunders was the last kid in his class picked for any sports team. "Football, tennis, cricket -- anything with a round ball, I was useless," he says now with a laugh. But back then he was the one always made fun of in school gym classes in Devonshire, England. It was a mountain bike he received for his 15thbirthday that changed him. At first he went biking alone in a nearby forest. Then he began to ride the bike along with a runner friend. Gradually, Saunders set up his mind on building up his body, increasing his speed and strength. At the age of 18, he ran his first marathon. The following year he met John Ridgway and started to work as a teacher at Ridgway's school of adventure in Scotland, where he learnt about Ridgway's cold--waterexploits. Greatly interested, Saunders read all he could about North Pole explorers and adventures; he decided that this would be his future. In 2001, after becoming a skillful skier, Saunders started his first long--distance expedition towards the North Pole. It took unbelievable energy. He suffered frostbite, ran into a polar bear and pushed his body to the limit, pulling his sled up and over the rocky mountains. Saunders has become the youngest person to ski alone to the North Pole, and he's skied more of the North Pole by himself than any other British man. His old playmates would not believe the change. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Was Bill always good at sports?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he usually picked last for teams?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What changed him?
Guess: a mountain bike
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how old was he?
Guess: 15
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did he start cycling?
Guess: in a nearby fores
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: with friends?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he start exercising with a friend?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did he run a marathon?
Guess: At the age of 18
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did he start teaching?
Guess: in Scotland
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: at what kind of school?
Guess: adventure
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what did he become most interested in there?

North Pole explorers and adventures