Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XII 

The sun had begun to cast long shadows the afternoon of Helen's hunt for Jonathan, when the borderman, accompanied by Wetzel, led a string of horses along the base of the very mountain she had ascended. 

"Last night's job was a good one, I ain't gainsayin'; but the redskin I wanted got away," Wetzel said gloomily. 

"He's safe now as a squirrel in a hole. I saw him dartin' among the trees with his white eagle feathers stickin' up like a buck's flag," replied Jonathan. "He can run. If I'd only had my rifle loaded! But I'm not sure he was that arrow-shootin' Shawnee." 

"It was him. I saw his bow. We ought'er taken more time an' picked him out," Wetzel replied, shaking his head gravely. "Though mebbe that'd been useless. I think he was hidin'. He's precious shy of his red skin. I've been after him these ten year, an' never ketched him nappin' yet. We'd have done much toward snuffin' out Legget an' his gang if we'd winged the Shawnee." 

"He left a plain trail." 

"One of his tricks. He's slicker on a trail than any other Injun on the border, unless mebbe it's old Wingenund, the Huron. This Shawnee'd lead us many a mile for nuthin', if we'd stick to his trail. I'm long ago used to him. He's doubled like an old fox, run harder'n a skeered fawn, an', if needs be, he'll lay low as cunnin' buck. I calkilate once over the mountain, he's made a bee-line east. We'll go on with the hosses, an' then strike across country to find his trail."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was Helen looking for?
Guess: Jonathan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was Wetzel hunting?
Guess: a redskin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he catch them?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long had Wetzel been hunting him?
Guess: ten years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What tribe did they think he was?
Guess: Shawnee
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What weapon did the Native have?
Guess: bow and arrow
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What weapon did Jonathon have?
Guess: a rifle
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he prepared to shoot?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How so?

rifle wasn't loaded