Here's a short story:

Chicago ( or ), officially the City of Chicago, is the third-most populous city in the United States. With over 2.7 million residents, it is also the most populous city in both the state of Illinois and the Midwestern United States. It is the county seat of Cook County. The Chicago metropolitan area, often referred to as Chicagoland, has nearly 10 million people and is the third-largest in the U.S. Chicago has often been called a global architecture capital. Chicago is considered one of the most important business centers in the world. 

Chicago was incorporated as a city in 1837, near a portage between the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River watershed, and grew rapidly in the mid-nineteenth century. After the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, which razed several square miles and left more than 100,000 homeless, the city made a concerted effort to rebuild on the damage. The construction boom accelerated population growth throughout the following decades, leading Chicago to become among the five largest cities in the world by 1900. During this period Chicago made noted contributions to urban planning and zoning standards, new construction styles (including the Chicago School of architecture), the development of the City Beautiful Movement, and the eventual creation of the steel-framed skyscraper. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How many people live in Chicago?
Guess: over 2.7 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Chicagoland?
Guess: The Chicago metropolitan area
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people live there?
Guess: nearly 10 million
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was early Chicago near?
Guess: a portage
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What water bodies did the portage connect?
Guess: the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River watershed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many people had nowhere to live after the fire?
Guess: over 100,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many actual houses were ruined?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: True or False: The population size never recovered from the disaster.
Guess: false
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What movement started in Chicago?
Guess: the City Beautiful Movement
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What tall structure was invented there?
Guess: steel-framed skyscraper
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: True or False: The Baroque school of architecture started there.
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What School do we know started there?
Guess: the Chicago School of architecture
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Chicago the biggest city in the U.S.?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many are bigger?
Guess: Two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which ones?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there a bigger city in Illinois?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about in the Midwest?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which county has its seat there?
Guess: Cook County.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What is Chicago formally called?

the City of Chicago