Here's a short story:

Joe's parents are farmers and they have a huge farm with cows, chickens, and ducks. Joe loves the farm and all the things he gets to play around and play on. One day, Joe's father told him not to get near a tractor that was sitting in the field. His father was worried that Joe would climb on it and hurt himself. Joe went out to the field and was feeding the horses and cows. When he was done, he saw the tractor his father told him not to get near. He knew that climbing on the tractor wouldn't hurt anything, so he did. He climbed on to the seat and sat there. Then, he pretended he was his father and pretended that he was driving the tractor. Joe's father saw him playing on the tractor and called for him. Joe heard his father calling for him and got off the tractor really fast. When he did that, he fell off and hurt his arm. Joe was in pain and his father came running to check on him and picked him up and sat him on a bench and asked him why he did that. Joe looked at his father and said, "I wanted to be like you." Joe's father gave him a hug and asked him if he wanted to ride with him on the tractor. Joe did and after he got a bandage on his arm, he and his father rode in the field on the tractor. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did Joe's father warn him about?
Guess: not to go near a tractor
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: he could hurt himself
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does he obey?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he do?
Guess: He climbed on to the seat
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why did he disobey like that?
Guess: He knew that climbing on the tractor wouldn't hurt anything
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Had he gone out to the field just to climb on the tractor?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he out there for?
Guess: to feed the horses and cows
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he get away with being on the tractor?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: his father called for him
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did that startle him?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the result?
Guess: he fell off
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it bad?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was his father upset?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Why?

unknown