Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- It's a grass-roots protest movement composed of the newly politicized and people distrustful of hierarchy. So how is it possible to be an illegitimate Tea Party member? 

Ask Republicans in Nevada. Some are accusing Jon Scott Ashjian, a new Tea Party candidate running for U.S. Senate, of being a fake. The allegation? He was put in the race by agents of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to siphon votes from the GOP. 

"No doubt about it," says Danny Tarkanian, one of the many Republican Senate candidates hoping to challenge Reid in November. 

"Nobody in the Tea Party knows who he is. He didn't know any of the principles of the Tea Party," Tarkanian tells CNN. 

Tarkanian even accuses "Harry Reid's staff, campaign, whatever" of picking Ashjian because he's Armenian, as is Tarkanian. He explains, "They know the Armenians are very close, they'll vote for each other." 

As for Reid, an aide dismisses the accusations. As does Reid, who says he's never met Ashjian or "anyone in his family." Reid tells CNN, "I think there are too many conspiratorialists in the world today. This is a free country." 

Sue Lowden, the Republican front-runner in the Senate primary, according to recent polls, is the former Nevada Republican Party chair and seems to be the Republicans' best hope of unseating Reid in November. Or at least she did, until Ashjian got into the race. 

Lowden says she's been very active with Tea Party groups in Nevada. "I am a Tea Party voter, absolutely." Which is why she says she finds it "a little strange" that Ashjian is emerging now. "I don't know who this person is. He's never been involved with anything that I'm aware of in this state."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who is Jon Scott Ashjian?
Guess: senate candidate
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: For which party?
Guess: Tea Party
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why was he put into the race?
Guess: to siphon votes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does he know tea party ideals?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is Harry Reid?
Guess: Senate Majority Leader
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Ashjian's nationality?
Guess: Armenian
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who else is also?
Guess: Tarkanian
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does Reid admit to pushing Ashjian into the race?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is the Republican front runner?
Guess: Sue Lowden
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: She is the former chair of what?
Guess: Nevada Republican Party chair
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does she participate in the Tea Party?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does she recognize Ashjian?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Has he been active in Tea Party politics?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When is the election?
Guess: November
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why does Tarkanian think Reid picked Ashjian?
Guess: because Armenians are very close, they'll vote for each other."
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who dismissed the allegations?
Guess: Reid's aide
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he claim there are too many of today?
Guess: conspiratorialists
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Which news station did he speak to?

CNN