Here's a short story:

A man who allegedly was with Aaron Hernandez the night Odin Lloyd was killed pleaded not guilty Friday to a single count of being an accessory to murder after the fact. 

As members of his and Lloyd's family looked on, Carlos Ortiz uttered only those two words -- "not guilty" -- during his brief arraignment in Bristol County Superior Court in the southeastern Massachusetts city of Fall River. His next court date is set for November 20. 

Ortiz is one of several people who have been charged in connection with Lloyd's death, though only one person -- Hernandez, who was a standout tight end for the New England Patriots before being released by the team the day of his arrest -- faces a murder count. 

Like Hernandez, Ortiz hails from Bristol, Connecticut. 

During Friday's court hearing, Ortiz's lawyer John Connors did not contest the $500,000 cash bail set for his client, though he could do so later. 

"We don't have the grand jury minutes, we don't have a lot of the discovery statements, etc. So I think it's prudent to wait for the next date until we argue (bail)," Connors said. 

Authorities have said that Hernandez, Ernest Wallace and Ortiz picked Lloyd up from his Boston apartment in a rental car shortly before he was found shot to death June 17 in a North Attleborough, Massachusetts, industrial park. 

Surveillance cameras then captured the rental car leaving the crime scene and Hernandez carrying a gun as he returned to his home minutes later. He was with two other people. Lloyd -- a 27-year-old semi-pro football player himself -- was not among them.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who was with Aaron Hernandez when a man was killed?
Guess: Ernest Wallace and Carlos Ortiz
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was killed?
Guess: Odin Lloyd
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is getting in trouble for the actual death?
Guess: Hernandez.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is Carlos' role?
Guess: An accessory to murder.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is he from?
Guess: Bristol.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what state?
Guess: Connecticut.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his bail amount?
Guess: $500,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Will they contest that?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Will they argue that in the future?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did the group pick up the victim?
Guess: His apartment
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what town?
Guess: Boston
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did they pick him up?
Guess: In a rental car
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: June 17
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Do you know what year this happened?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he killed IN Boston?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where then?
Guess: North Attleborough, Massachusetts.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is there a more specific location?
Guess: In an industrial park.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did the police know about Hernandez, Wallace, and Ortiz?
Guess: Surveillance cameras
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was holding a weapon?

Hernandez.