Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XII 

WINTER DAYS AT PUTNAM HALL 

After the trial of Josiah Crabtree the days flew by swiftly at the Hall. Bound to make a good showing, each of the Rover boys applied himself diligently to his studies, and all made rapid progress. 

Thanksgiving came and went, and a week later there came a fairly heavy fall of snow. 

"Hurrah! winter is knocking at the door at last!" cried Sam joyfully. "Now for some snowballing, skating, and all the rest of the winter fun." 

Snowballing was already going on, and the white balls were flying in all directions. Dick had his hat taken off by Frank, and in return filled Frank's ear with snow. Tom and Fred got into a regular war at close quarters, and in the end Tom threw his opponent flat and stuffed snow down his neck. But then Larry came up with a huge cake of snow and nearly smothered Tom, and then a dozen leaped in, and a good-natured melee resulted, lasting for the rest of the playtime. 

It was very cold that night, and two days later the ice on the lake was two inches thick. Still the captain made the boys wait until the following Saturday, when the ice was strong enough to bear a horse. 

In the meantime skates had been brought out and polished up, and soon the edge of the lake was alive with skaters, all moving swiftly from one spot to another, and shrieking and laughing at the top of their voices. George Strong, the assistant master, also came down and showed some of the older boys how to cut fancy figures. Dick was a good skater, and took to the fancy figures with ease. As for Tom and Sam, they preferred straight skating, and entered half a dozen trials of speed down the lake to the old boathouse and back.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Did it snow before or after Thanksgiving?
Guess: After
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By how long?
Guess: A week later
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was knocking at the door?
Guess: Winter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was happy about that?
Guess: Sam
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does he enjoy doing in the snow?
Guess: Snowballing
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anything else?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What?
Guess: skating, and all the rest of the winter fun
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What had been on trial?
Guess: Josiah Crabtree
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What had he been on trial for?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the days progress rapidly after it?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: At Putnam Hall
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the last name of the boys?
Guess: Rover
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many boys were there?
Guess: Five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who demonstrated to older boys how to do some cool moves on the frozen pond?
Guess: George Strong
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is he?
Guess: the assistant master
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he teach the older boys or the younger boys?
Guess: older
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How thick was the lake's ice?
Guess: two inches
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was that good enough to start skating on?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who made the boys wait?
Guess: the captain
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: For how long?
Guess: the following Saturday
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What would the ice be strong enough then to hold the weight of?
Guess: a horse
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the boys enjoy skating?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Dick a good skater?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Tom and Sam like doing fancy skating?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did they like instead?
Guess: straight skating
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did they skate?
Guess: down the lake
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: To where?
Guess: to the old boathouse
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Then where?
Guess: Back
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many times?

half a dozen