Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XX. 

FLIGHT AND PURSUIT. 

Lieutenant Radbury's party had come up to the ravine at a point opposite to the cave, about half an hour before Dan attempted to make his escape. 

"I see nothing of the Mexicans here," he remarked to Poke Stover, as he swept the ravine from one end to the other with his well-trained eye. 

"No more do I see anything," answered the old frontiersman. "But they may be behind yonder rocks, leftenant. If ye say the word, I'll climb down and scout around a bit." 

"There is a cave among yonder rocks," put in another of the Texans. "It is called Haunted Rock by the Indians. The Comanches used to use it as a meeting-place when they were out for plunder. I've often heard old Si Bilkens tell about it." 

"I have heard of such a cave," answered Amos Radbury. "If the Mexicans knew of it, they might think it just the right sort of a hiding-place. Yes, Poke, you can scout around. But be careful. They may be watching for a shot." 

The frontiersman nodded, to show that he understood, and went off immediately on foot, it being impossible to go down the ravine's side on mustang-back, no matter how sure-footed the animal might be. 

The descent into the ravine took time, and Poke Stover was still some distance from the cave's entrance when he heard a commotion among the bushes and rocks. 

"A mustang a-comin' this way," he muttered to himself. "And somebody ridin', too. It must be one of them dirty greasers trying to git away. I'll cut him short."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is headed that way?
Guess: A mustang.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did it have a rider?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was it?
Guess: .a  dirty greaser
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was he attempting to do?
Guess: "Git away."
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who first noticed the horse?
Guess: Poke Stover
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he hear?
Guess: A commotion
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: Aamong the bushes and rocks.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did the frontiersman travel?
Guess: On foot.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: It was impossible to ride a horse down.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did he start walking?
Guess: Immediately
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who had heard of the cave?
Guess: Amos Radbury.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who could be hidden in it?
Guess: The Mexicans
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was sent to check it out?
Guess: Poke
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the name of the cave?
Guess: Haunted Rock
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who once met there?
Guess: The Comanches
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who talked about it?
Guess: Si Bilkens
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was the cabe?
Guess: Among yonder rocks
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was the head of the troops?

Lieutenant Radbury