Here's a short story:

Zheng He was an amazing man. He was born in 1371. Eleven years later, he was caught by the army of a rich young man called Zhu Di and made to work for him. Over time the rich man saw that Zheng He was very clever and strong and they became close friends. In 1403 Zhu Di was made the King of China and he asked Zheng He to join his government. The King wanted to learn more about the world and show other countries his power. He ordered many new ships to be built and made Zheng He their leader. between 1405 and 1433, Zheng He led seven sea trips to different parts of the world. He certainly travelled to India, Africa and the Middle East. A few people think his ships have even reached South America and Australia. Each trip lasted between two and four years and it is believed he sailed more than 50,000 kms during the years of his travels.Zheng He led a fleet with 28,000 men and over 300 ships, such as boats for food, water and even soldiers' horses. On these trips he brought with him many Chinese goods like silk and medicine to give to foreign kings or to sell for local goods. He returned from each trip with boats filled with expensive things such as gold and treasures, foreign guests and strange animals like a giraffe. It is a pity that we may never learn everything about Zheng He' s travels. The Columbus of the east, Zheng He, died in 1433. After that, the new king, had these trips stopped and he burned almost all the books about Zheng He's travels, because he believed the trips were unlucky and too expensive. It is only in the last 50 years that historians have begun to carefully study the adventures of great Zheng He. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What happened in 1403?
Guess: Zhu Di was made the King of China
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did he ask to join his government?
Guess: Zheng He
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was he born?
Guess: 1371
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was he friends with Z.Di?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Z.He travel on boats?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he make a lot of sea voyages?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many?
Guess: seven
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: were they short trips?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: about how long did they last?
Guess: between two and four years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many ships did he oversee?
Guess: 300
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many men?
Guess: 28,000
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what countries did they go to?
Guess: India, Africa, Middle East, South America and Australia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what did he carry in the ships?
Guess: silk, medicine
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he bring live things back with him?
Guess: gold, treasures, foreign guests and strange animals
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what animal?
Guess: giraffe
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: do we know everything about him?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is one reason why not?
Guess: the new king burned almost all the books
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did historians start studying him?
Guess: in the last 50 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: when did he die?

1433