Here's a short story:

The Independent State of Samoa ( Samoan: Malo Sa 'oloto Tuto 'atasi o Sāmoa, IPA: [ˌsaːˈmoa]), commonly known as Samoa (Samoan: Sāmoa) and formerly known as Western Samoa, is a Unitary Parliamentary Republic with eleven administrative divisions. The two main islands are Savai'i and Upolu with four smaller islands surrounding the landmasses. The capital city is Apia. The Lapita people discovered and settled the Samoan islands around 3,500 years ago. They developed a unique language and cultural identity. 

The origins of the Samoans are closely studied in modern research about Polynesia in various scientific disciplines such as genetics, linguistics and anthropology. Scientific research is ongoing, although a number of different theories exist; including one proposing that the Samoans originated from Austronesian predecessors during the terminal eastward Lapita expansion period from Southeast Asia and Melanesia between 2,500 and 1,500 BCE. The Samoan origins are currently being reassessed due to new scientific evidence and carbon dating findings from 2003 and onwards. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did the Independent State of Samoa used to be called?
Guess: Western Samoa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are the 2 main islands?
Guess: Savai'i and Upolu
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many smaller islands are there?
Guess: Four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the capital?
Guess: Apia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When were the islands discovered?
Guess: 3,500 years ago
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: By who?
Guess: The Lapita people
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was their language one that was used elsewhere?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the Independent State of Samoa's shorter name?
Guess: Samoa
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many divisions are there?
Guess: 11
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of republic is it?
Guess: Unitary Parliamentary Republic
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the name in the \Samoan language?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: W
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What scientific fields study the Samoans?
Guess: such as genetics, linguistics and anthropology.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Is the research already done?

ongoing