Here's a short story:

A lock-unlock lever on the doomed Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo was moved earlier than it should have been, the National Transportation Safety Board said Sunday night. 

But the agency's acting chairman stressed it was unclear whether pilot error, mechanical problems or a host of other possibilities caused the spacecraft to disintegrate in the air. 

"We are still a long way from finding a cause. We are months and months away," NTSB Acting Chairman Christopher Hart said. 

And despite a debris field spanning 5 miles, investigators have found almost all the parts of the spacecraft needed for the investigation, Hart said. 

The accident killed co-pilot Michael Tyner Alsbury, 39. A memorial fund has been set up for him. 

Co-pilot alert and talking 

The surviving co-pilot is "alert" and speaking, the company that partnered with Virgin on the test flight program said Sunday. 

"Peter Siebold, the director of flight operations at Scaled Composites, was piloting SpaceShipTwo. He is alert and talking with his family and doctors," the company said in a statement. 

"We remain focused on supporting the families of the two pilots and all of our employees, as well as the agencies investigating the accident." 

NTSB investigators have yet to interview Siebold. 

"We have not because doctors did not recommend we do an interview at this stage," Hart said. 

Inflight breakup? 

SpaceShipTwo disintegrated Friday, just two minutes after the space plane separated from the jet-powered aircraft that carried it aloft. 

At the time, it was about 45,000 feet above, and about 20 miles northeast, of Mojave, California.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who lost his life in the accident?
Guess: Michael Tyner Alsbury
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how old was he?
Guess: 39
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: do they know what caused the accident?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: who reported they had not found a cause?

Christopher Hart