Here's a short story:

Indiana is a U.S. state located in the midwestern and Great Lakes regions of North America. Indiana is the 38th largest by area and the 17th most populous of the 50 United States. Its capital and largest city is Indianapolis. Indiana was admitted to the United States as the 19th U.S. state on December 11, 1816. Indiana borders Lake Michigan to the northwest, Michigan to the north, Ohio to the east, Kentucky to the south and southeast, and Illinois to the west. 

Before becoming a territory, varying cultures of indigenous peoples and historic Native Americans inhabited Indiana for thousands of years. Since its founding as a territory, settlement patterns in Indiana have reflected regional cultural segmentation present in the Eastern United States; the state's northernmost tier was settled primarily by people from New England and New York, Central Indiana by migrants from the Mid-Atlantic states and from adjacent Ohio, and Southern Indiana by settlers from the Southern states, particularly Kentucky and Tennessee. 

Indiana has a diverse economy with a gross state product of $341.9 billion in 2016. Indiana has several metropolitan areas with populations greater than 100,000 and a number of smaller industrial cities and towns. Indiana is home to professional sports teams, including the NFL's Indianapolis Colts and the NBA's Indiana Pacers, and hosts several notable athletic events, such as the Indianapolis 500 and Brickyard 400 motorsports races. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Which state is this?
Guess: Indiana
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Of which country?
Guess: U.S.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is it?
Guess: located in the midwestern and Great Lakes regions of North America.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it the biggest state?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which ranking is it?
Guess: 17th
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What about in physical size?
Guess: 38th largest
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was it created?
Guess: December 11, 1816.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which number does that make it?
Guess: 19th
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is above it?
Guess: Michigan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And on the right?
Guess: Ohio
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Left?
Guess: Illinois
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Below?
Guess: Kentucky
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What body of water is nearby?

Lake Michigan