Here's a short story:

(CNN) -- To a friend of more than 20 years, Manssor Arbabsiar was a man who liked to be called "Jack" and didn't seem to have strong views on politics or religion. 

To U.S. authorities, the 56-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen is a suspect in an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States. 

"It was shocking because it didn't seem like he would be the type of person to do something like that," said Mitchel Hamauei, who said he met Arbabsiar through mutual Iranian friends. 

"He was a happy go lucky guy, always joked around," Hamauei said. "He had a really happy demeanor." 

Hamauei, who runs a gyro and kebab restaurant in Corpus Christi, Texas, said the two were close enough that he attended the graduation of Arbabsiar's son. 

"I know his wife and his son. They're very down-to-earth people," Hamauei said. 

The two kept in touch even after Arbabsiar moved to Austin about four or five years ago. 

"I saw him about a year ago. He came by the store to eat a sandwich." 

Arbabsiar was a used car salesman, Hamauei said. Their conversations would be about "life in general," he said. "Nothing religious. Nothing political." 

"He would go out and party," Hamauei said. "As far as I know he never practiced religion." 

Martha Guerrero, Arbabsiar's estranged wife, told the Austin, Texas, station KVUE Tuesday that they've "been separated for a long time" and she doesn't know anything about his affairs. 

However, she believes he is innocent.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who liked to be called something?
Guess: Manssor Arbabsiar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he like to be called?
Guess: Jack
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he a very serious guy?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How was he?
Guess: happy go lucky
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he really opinionated about politics?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Had he planned something?
Guess: to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did people suspect he was like that?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What was the raction?

shock