Here's a short story:

Autumn means different things to different people. "It all depends on your personality," said British naturalist Richard Mabey. "Personality shapes your view of the season," he said. "You may see it as a fading-away,a packing-up ,or as a time of packing in another sense--the exciting gathering of resources before a long journey." 

If this is true,perhaps it tells us a little about,for instance,Thomas Hood,the 19th Century English poet. About November,he wrote: 

No warmth,no cheerfulness,no healthful ease 

No shade,no shine,no butterflies,no bees 

November! 

On the other hand,another English poet John Keats,already sensing he was seriously ill,was inspired by a late September day to pen one of the most famous poems in the English language,To Autumn. He wrote to a friend afterwards that there was something comforting and healing about it. 

According to Richard Mabey,Keats has the biological evidence on his side. Autumn is not a time of slowing down,but a time of new beginnings and great movements of creatures. For example,just at the moment that Keats's "gathering swallows" ( in To Autumn)are departing for Africa,millions of creatures are fleeing from the frozen north like Iceland,Greenland and Russia to winter along the east and south coasts of Britain. According to scientists,before falling,the leaves transfer their chlorophyll and carbohydrates into the woody parts of the tree for safe keeping over winter. What remains is the natural antioxidants in the leaves: the yellow and orange carotenoids ,and another protective chemical specially produced for autumn,the bright-red anthocyanin .High colour is not a signal of deterioration and decline,but of detox ability and good health. 

A century after Keats,the American poet Loren Eiseley wrote in his journal: 

"Suppose we saw ourselves burning-like maples in a golden autumn. And that we could break up like autumn leaves...dropping their substance like chlorophyll. Wouldn't our attitude towards death be different?" (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What season is being talked about?
Guess: Autumn
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does Richard Mabey do?
Guess: he's a naturalist
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is his nationality?
Guess: British
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who wrote about November?
Guess: Thomas Hood
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his occupation?
Guess: poet
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his nationality?
Guess: English
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What time period did he live?
Guess: 19th Century
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is the next poet mentioned?
Guess: John Keats
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his nationality?
Guess: English
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was his writing well known?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was the name of his famous poem?
Guess: To Autumn
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What inspired the poem?

a late September