Here's a short story:

The United States presidential election of 2012 was the 57th quadrennial American presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. The Democratic nominee, incumbent President Barack Obama, and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, were elected to a second term, defeating the Republican nominee, former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney and his running mate, Representative and future House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. 

As the incumbent president, Obama secured the Democratic nomination with no serious opposition. The Republican Party was more fractured; Mitt Romney was consistently competitive in the polls, but faced challenges from a number of more conservative contenders whose popularity each fluctuated, often besting Romney's. Romney effectively secured the nomination by early May as the economy improved, albeit at a persistently laggard rate. The campaign was marked by a sharp rise in fundraising, including from new nominally independent Super PACs. The campaigns focused heavily on domestic issues: debate centered largely around sound responses to the Great Recession in terms of economic recovery and job creation. Other issues included long-term federal budget issues, the future of social insurance programs, and the Affordable Care Act. Foreign policy was also discussed including the phase-out of the Iraq War, the size of and spending on the military, preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and appropriate counteractions to terrorism. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: who secured the democratic nomination?
Guess: Obama
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What election year is the article about?
Guess: 2012
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Obama have opposition securing his nomination?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was competitive in the pools for the republicans?
Guess: Mitt Romney
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did Romney face opposition?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who secured the republican nomination?
Guess: Mitt Romney
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was foreign policy discussed in the campaigns?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was Obama’s running mate?
Guess: Joe Biden
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was elected to a second term?

Barack Obama and Joe Biden