Here's a short story:

Brad, Texas (CNN) -- Firefighters have made some progress in battling a spreading wildfire in northern Texas, but dry conditions contributed to a rash of new fires as well, officials said Thursday. 

The 101 Ranch Fire in Palo Pinto County had scorched 6,200 acres as of Thursday, according to the Texas Forest Service. The blaze is burning on Possum Kingdom Lake, near the town of Brad, about 100 miles west of Dallas. 

However, "we feel much better about this fire today" as the blaze is now 50% contained, said John Nichols, spokesman for the forest service. Some evacuations were lifted, he said. 

The flames have destroyed 40 homes and nine RVs, the Forest Service said Thursday. Firefighters were receiving support from aerial tankers and helicopters. 

Authorities are working on a re-entry strategy for residents, said Palo Pinto County Sheriff Ira Mercer, and they are trying to get the lake open for the Labor Day holiday. 

On Wednesday, evacuations were ordered in several communities on the north side of the lake after the fire charged over a ridge and approached a dam on the lake, CNN affiliate WFAA reported. The Forest Service pulled out of its command observation post, telling journalists and onlookers to get out of the way of the flames. 

Tom Hardeston was among the residents watching helplessly. "My house is right through here, though it may be gone," he told WFAA. 

Nearby ranchers battled to save their herds from the encroaching fire. 

"I'm just moving them from pasture to pasture," Cindi McCoy told WFAA, referring to her livestock. "As one pasture burns, I'm moving them back to that one and bring(ing) them back around."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who are doing the good work?
Guess: Firefighters have made some progress in battling a spreading wildfire in northern Texas
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are they doing?
Guess: battling a spreading wildfire in northern Texas, but dry conditions contributed to a rash of new fires
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: The blaze is burning on Possum Kingdom Lake, near the town of Brad, about 100 miles west of Dallas.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: When did that happen?

as of Thursday,