Here's a short story:

Manchester () is a city and metropolitan borough in Greater Manchester, England, with a population of 530,300 . It lies within the United Kingdom's second-most populous urban area, with a population of 2.55 million. Manchester is fringed by the Cheshire Plain to the south, the Pennines to the north and east and an arc of towns with which it forms a continuous conurbation. The local authority is Manchester City Council. 

The recorded history of Manchester began with the civilian settlement associated with the Roman fort of "Mamucium" or "Mancunium", which was established in about AD 79 on a sandstone bluff near the confluence of the rivers Medlock and Irwell. It was historically a part of Lancashire, although areas of Cheshire south of the River Mersey were incorporated in the 20th century. Throughout the Middle Ages Manchester remained a manorial township but began to expand "at an astonishing rate" around the turn of the 19th century. Manchester's unplanned urbanisation was brought on by a boom in textile manufacture during the Industrial Revolution, and resulted in it becoming the world's first industrialised city. 

Manchester achieved city status in 1853. The Manchester Ship Canal opened in 1894, creating the Port of Manchester and linking the city to the sea, to the west. Its fortunes declined after the Second World War, owing to deindustrialisation, but the IRA bombing in 1996 led to extensive investment and regeneration. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Where is Manchester located?
Guess: Greater Manchester, England,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the population?
Guess: 530,300
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it the UK's most populated area?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What year did it become a city?
Guess: 1853
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was opened in 1894?
Guess: The Manchester Ship Canal
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is located to it's south?
Guess: the Cheshire Plain
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the governing authority?
Guess: Manchester City Council
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Where did the history begin?

with the civilian settlement associated with the Roman fort of "Mamucium"