Here's a short story:

Michigan () is a state in the Great Lakes and Midwestern regions of the United States. 

The state's name, Michigan, is of French origins (form of the Ojibwe word) "mishigamaa", meaning "large water" or "large lake". Michigan is the tenth most populous of the 50 United States, with the 11th most extensive total area, and the largest state by total area east of the Mississippi River. 

Michigan's capital is Lansing, and its largest city is Detroit. 

Michigan is the only state to consist of two peninsulas. The Lower Peninsula, to which the name Michigan was originally applied, is often noted to be shaped like a mitten. The Upper Peninsula (often referred to as "the U.P.") is separated from the Lower Peninsula by the Straits of Mackinac, a channel that joins Lake Huron to Lake Michigan. The two peninsulas are connected by the Mackinac Bridge. The state has the longest freshwater coastline of any political subdivision in the world, being bounded by four of the five Great Lakes, plus Lake Saint Clair. As a result, it is one of the leading U.S. states for recreational boating. 

Michigan also has 64,980 inland lakes and ponds. A person in the state is never more than from a natural water source or more than from a Great Lakes shoreline. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: how many peninsulas does it have?
Guess: two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what language is Michigan derived from?
Guess: French
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many lakes and ponds does it have?
Guess: 64,980
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what separates the two peninsulas?
Guess: the Straits of Mackinac,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many lakes does the strait join?
Guess: Two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what are they called?
Guess: Lake Huron and Lake Michigan
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what region of US is it in?
Guess: Great Lakes and Midwestern
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is the capital city?
Guess: Lansing
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: does it have the largest population in the US?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what rank is it?
Guess: tenth
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where is it considered to be the largest state?
Guess: east of the Mississippi River.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is Lansing the biggest city in the state?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is?
Guess: Detroit
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what bridge connects the peninsulas?
Guess: Mackinac Bridge.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many of the great lakes is it bounded by?
Guess: four
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: out of how many?
Guess: five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What does mishigamaa mean?
Guess: large water or large lake
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what is shaped as a mitten?

The Lower Peninsula