Here's a short story:

In a career spanning more than four decades, Spielberg's films have covered many themes and genres. Spielberg's early science-fiction and adventure films were seen as archetypes of modern Hollywood blockbuster filmmaking. In later years, his films began addressing humanistic issues such as the Holocaust (in Schindler's List), the transatlantic slave trade (in Amistad), war (in Empire of the Sun, Saving Private Ryan, War Horse and Bridge of Spies) and terrorism (in Munich). His other films include Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the Indiana Jones film series, and A.I. Artificial Intelligence. 

Spielberg was born in Cincinnati, Ohio, to an Orthodox Jewish family. His mother, Leah (Adler) Posner (born 1920), was a restaurateur and concert pianist, and his father, Arnold Spielberg (born 1917), was an electrical engineer involved in the development of computers. His paternal grandparents were immigrants from Ukraine who settled in Cincinnati in the first decade of the 1900s. In 1950, his family moved to Haddon Township, New Jersey when his father took a job with RCA. Three years later, the family moved to Phoenix, Arizona.:548 Spielberg attended Hebrew school from 1953 to 1957, in classes taught by Rabbi Albert L. Lewis. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: who is the article about?
Guess: Spielberg
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where was he born?
Guess: Cincinnati, Ohio
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: his religion?
Guess: Orthodox Jew
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was his mother's occupation?
Guess: a restaurateur and concert pianist
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: her name?
Guess: Leah (Adler) Posner
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: year of birth?
Guess: born 1920
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did dad's name?
Guess: Arnold Spielberg
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: profession?
Guess: electrical engineer
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: year of birth?
Guess: 1917
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where were his dad's parents from?
Guess: Ukraine
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did the stay there?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where did the go?
Guess: Cincinnati
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: first decade of the 1900s
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: how long has the subject of the article been making movies?

four decades