Here's a short story:

In psychology, memory is the process in which information is encoded, stored, and retrieved. Encoding allows information from the outside world to be sensed in the form of chemical and physical stimuli. In the first stage the information must be changed so that it may be put into the encoding process. Storage is the second memory stage or process. This entails that information is maintained over short periods of time. Finally the third process is the retrieval of information that has been stored. Such information must be located and returned to the consciousness. Some retrieval attempts may be effortless due to the type of information, and other attempts to remember stored information may be more demanding for various reasons. 

Short-term memory is believed to rely mostly on an acoustic code for storing information, and to a lesser extent a visual code. Conrad (1964) found that test subjects had more difficulty recalling collections of letters that were acoustically similar (e.g. E, P, D). Confusion with recalling acoustically similar letters rather than visually similar letters implies that the letters were encoded acoustically. Conrad's (1964) study, however, deals with the encoding of written text; thus, while memory of written language may rely on acoustic components, generalisations to all forms of memory cannot be made. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: How many codes does short term memory entail?
Guess: Two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are they?
Guess: acoustic code and visual code.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Would the visual code be the most vital?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who did a study to determine that?
Guess: Conrad
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Were people more likely to remember letters that sounded similar or different?
Guess: more difficulty recalling similar
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was there as big a difference when reading letters?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did his study show?
Guess: memory of written language may rely on acoustic components
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Can it be generalized to cover all types of memory?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Which kind can it be used for?
Guess: Short-term memory
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What year did he come to these conclusions?
Guess: 1964
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is encoding a part of the memory process?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many other components are there?
Guess: Two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What are those?
Guess: stored, and retrieved
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many types of stimuli are involved?
Guess: Two
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Chemical is one, what is the other?
Guess: physical
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What needs to happen first to the information received?
Guess: the information must be changed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What occurs next?
Guess: Storage
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What would that be?
Guess: information is maintained over short periods of time
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Which process would be last?

retrieval