Here's a short story:

When this story happened, they were working around a very large house. Their job was to do the cleaning. It was not a difficult job, but sometimes it was a little dangerous, because they had to walk below where workmen were working. Often these workmen dropped something from the top of the house many meters high to the ground. One morning Joe was working near the house with a cigarette behind one of his ears. Suddenly somebody on the top shouted, "Look out!" But Joe did not "look out". He looked up. And as he did so, a long knife missed Joe's head, but it cut off one of his ears. At once he put his hand to one side of his head and cried out, "I've lost an ear. Help! Help!" Jeff ran up to help his friend. "Look for my ear," Joe told him. "It must be on the ground somewhere." Jeff looked everywhere for the missing ear. At last he found an ear on the ground. He picked it up and carried it to Joe. "Here you are," he said, "I've found it." Joe looked at it. "No, that's not my ear." he said, "Mine had a cigarette behind it." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What were they doing?
Guess: working on a house
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Doing what?
Guess: Cleaning
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it easy?
Guess: Yes, but a bit dangerous
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Why?
Guess: They had to walk under the workmen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What would happen?
Guess: The workmen would drop things from the top of the house
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was Joe?
Guess: Joe was close to the house
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he hear?
Guess: A shout of "look out"
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do instead?
Guess: Joe looked up
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What went by his face?
Guess: A long knife
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did it do?
Guess: The knife cut off one of his ears.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What did he do next?

He put his hand to his head and cried out