Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XII 

So sailed the Ship of Fools--Michael playing with Scraps, respecting Cocky and by Cocky being bullied and wheedled, singing with Steward and worshipping him; Daughtry drinking his six quarts of beer each day, collecting his wages the first of each month, and admiring Charles Stough Greenleaf as the finest man on board; Kwaque serving and loving his master and thickening and darkening and creasing his brow with the growing leprous infiltration; Ah Moy avoiding the Black Papuan as the very plague, washing himself continuously and boiling his blankets once a week; Captain Doane doing the navigating and worrying about his flat-building in San Francisco; Grimshaw resting his ham-hands on his colossal knees and girding at the pawnbroker to contribute as much to the adventure as he was contributing from his wheat-ranches; Simon Nishikanta wiping his sweaty neck with the greasy silk handkerchief and painting endless water-colours; the mate patiently stealing the ship's latitude and longitude with his duplicate key; and the Ancient Mariner, solacing himself with Scotch highballs, smoking fragrant three-for-a-dollar Havanas that were charged to the adventure, and for ever maundering about the hell of the longboat, the cross-bearings unnamable, and the treasure a fathom under the sand. 

Came a stretch of ocean that to Daughtry was like all other stretches of ocean and unidentifiable from them. No land broke the sea-rim. The ship the centre, the horizon was the invariable and eternal circle of the world. The magnetic needle in the binnacle was the point on which the _Mary Turner_ ever pivoted. The sun rose in the undoubted east and set in the undoubted west, corrected and proved, of course, by declination, deviation, and variation; and the nightly march of the stars and constellations proceeded across the sky.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What was Michael playing with?
Guess: Scraps
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was drinking beer?
Guess: Daughtry
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when does he get paid?
Guess: first of each month
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was washing all the time?
Guess: Ah Moy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was he doing with his blankets?
Guess: boiling
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how often?
Guess: once a week
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was the navigator?
Guess: Doane
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was he concerned about?
Guess: flat-building
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: where was it?

in San Francisco