Here's a short story:

People think of ice cream as an American food. Yet, ice cream really came from Asia. In the late 1200s Marco Polo, the great explorer, is said to have seen rich Asians eating dishes of ice. Camels had brought the ice from distant mountains. Before it was served, the ice had been flavored with fruits. Marco Polo brought this new dish to Italy, In France cooks changed the ice recipe and made ice cream. At first, cooks tried to keep the recipe a secret. They wanted it to be a special dish for rich people. By the late 1700s, though, ice cream was sold throughout Europe and America. Some great Americans loved ice cream. George Washington was the first to buy a special machine for making it. When Thomas Jefferson returned from France, he brought an ice cream recipe home with him. Dolly Madison, wife of President James Madison, also liked ice cream, and she often served it at the White House. Actually, a famous brand of ice cream was even named after her. In the late 1800s, the ice cream industry began to grow. A way of keeping ice cream frozen had been found, so ice cream makers did not have to worry about ice cream melting anymore. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the story about?
Guess: ice cream
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was it invented?
Guess: Asia
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did it get world wide?
Guess: Marco Polo
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did he do?
Guess: brought this new dish to Italy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did he learn about it?
Guess: seen rich Asians eating dishes of ice
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did this happen?
Guess: the late 1200s
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did they get the ice?
Guess: Camels had brought the ice from distant mountains
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did they have flavors?
Guess: the ice had been flavored with fruits
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where else did it become popular?
Guess: France
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When was cream first added?
Guess: In France cooks changed the ice recipe and made ice cream
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did it get to America?
Guess: By the late 1700s
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did any famous people eat it?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who, for example?
Guess: George Washington
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How do we know he liked it?
Guess: He was the first to buy a special machine for making it
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who else?
Guess: Thomas Jefferson
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did Jefferson learn about it?
Guess: When Thomas Jefferson returned from France, he brought an ice cream recipe home with him
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Anyone else?
Guess: Dolly Madison, wife of President James Madison, also liked ice cream
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Did they ever serve it to guests?

Yes