Here's a short story:

Arizona (; ; O'odham: "Alĭ ṣonak" [ˡaɺi ˡʂonak]) is a state in the southwestern region of the United States. It is also part of the Western and the Mountain states. It is the sixth largest and the 14th most populous of the 50 states. Its capital and largest city is Phoenix. Arizona is one of the Four Corners states. It has borders with New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, California, and Mexico, and one point in common with the southwestern corner of Colorado. Arizona's border with Mexico is 389 miles (626 km) long, on the northern border of the Mexican states of Sonora and Baja California. 

Arizona is the 48th state and last of the contiguous states to be admitted to the Union, achieving statehood on February 14, 1912. Historically part of the territory of "Alta California" in New Spain, it became part of independent Mexico in 1821. After being defeated in the Mexican–American War, Mexico ceded much of this territory to the United States in 1848. The southernmost portion of the state was acquired in 1853 through the Gadsden Purchase. 

Southern Arizona is known for its desert climate, with very hot summers and mild winters. Northern Arizona features forests of pine, Douglas fir, and spruce trees; the Colorado Plateau; some mountain ranges (such as the San Francisco Mountains); as well as large, deep canyons, with much more moderate summer temperatures and significant winter snowfalls. There are ski resorts in the areas of Flagstaff, Alpine, and Tucson. In addition to the Grand Canyon National Park, there are several national forests, national parks, and national monuments. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What territory is this about?
Guess: Arizona
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it one of the first states?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What number was it?
Guess: the 48th
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When did it become official?
Guess: February 14, 1912
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it cold there?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did it belong to beforehand?
Guess: Alta California
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was that?
Guess: New Spain
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who fought against each other?
Guess: Mexico and America
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who won?
Guess: America
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What part of the country is AZ in?
Guess: the southwestern region
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many states are bigger?
Guess: five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How does it rank in population?

14th