Here's a short story:

Lesotho, officially the Kingdom of Lesotho (), is an enclaved, landlocked country in southern Africa completely surrounded by South Africa. It is just over in size and has a population of around /1e6 round 0 million. Its capital and largest city is Maseru. 

Previously known as Basutoland, Lesotho declared independence from the United Kingdom on 4 October 1966. It is a member of the United Nations, the Commonwealth of Nations and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The name "Lesotho" translates roughly into "the land of the people who speak Sesotho". About 40% of the population lives below the international poverty line of US$1.25 a day. 

The original inhabitants of the area now known as Lesotho were the San people. Examples of their rock art can be found in the mountains throughout the area. 

The present Lesotho, then called Basutoland, emerged as a single polity under King Moshoeshoe I in 1822. Moshoeshoe, a son of Mokhachane, a minor chief of the Bakoteli lineage, formed his own clan and became a chief around 1804. Between 1821 and 1823, he and his followers settled at the Butha-Buthe Mountain, joining with former adversaries in resistance against the Lifaqane associated with the reign of Shaka Zulu from 1818 to 1828. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: what are the natives now known as?
Guess: Lesotho
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who were they?
Guess: the San people
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when was it founded?
Guess: 1822
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who was the king then?
Guess: King Moshoeshoe I
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is it's capital?
Guess: Maseru
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what can be found in the mountains?
Guess: rock art
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is it's official name?
Guess: the Kingdom of Lesotho
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when did it gain independence?
Guess: 4 October 196
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: from?
Guess: the United Kingdom
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: does it have any water bodies around it?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was the king's father a king as well?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what was he?

a minor chief