Here's a short story:

Thomas Edison lit up the world with his invention of the electric light. Without him, the world might still be in the dark. However, the electric light was not his only invention. He also invented the motion picture camera and 1200 other things. About every two weeks he created something new. Thomas Edison was born in 1847. He attended school for only three months. His mother taught him at home, but Thomas was mostly self-educated. He started experimenting at a young age. When he was 12 years old, he got his first job. He became a newsboy on a train. He did experiments on the train in his spare time. Unluckily, his first work experience did not end well. They _ him when he accidentally set fire to the floor of the train. Then Edison worked for five years as a telegraph operator, but he continued to spend much of his time in experimenting his first patent in 1868 for a vote recorder run by electricity. Thomas Edison was totally deaf in one ear and hard of hearing in the other, but he thought of his deafness as a blessing in many ways. It kept conversations short, so that he could have more time for work. He always worked 16 out of every 24hours. Sometimes his wife had to remind him to sleep and eat. Thomas Edison died at the age of 84. He left a great many inventions that greatly improved the quality of life all over the world. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Was Edison well educated?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did he go to school for long?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how long?
Guess: Three months.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who taught him after that?
Guess: His mother
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was he married?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did he work a lot?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how much?
Guess: 16 out of 24 hours
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what is his most recgonized invention?
Guess: Electric light
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how many other things did he invent?
Guess: 1201 other things
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was his first job?
Guess: A newsboy
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where?
Guess: On a train.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how did that end?
Guess: He set a fire on the train.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: on purpose?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What was his next job?
Guess: Telegraph Operator
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How long did he work there?
Guess: 5 years
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: when was his first patent?

in 1868