Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XV Sammy Jay Makes Paddy a Call. 

Paddy the Beaver was hard at work. He had just cut down a good- sized aspen tree and now he was gnawing it into short lengths to put in his food pile in the pond. As he worked, Paddy was doing a lot of thinking about the footprint of Old Man Coyote in a little patch of mud, for he knew that meant that Old Man Coyote had discovered his pond, and would be hanging around, hoping to catch Paddy off his guard. Paddy knew it just as well as if Old Man Coyote had told him so. That was why he was at work cutting his food supply in the daytime. Usually he works at night, and he knew that Old Man Coyote knew it. 

"He'll try to catch me then," thought Paddy, "so I'll do my working on land now and fool him." 

The tree he was cutting began to sway and crack. Paddy cut out One more big chip, then hurried away to a safe place while the tree fell with a crash. 

"Thief! thief! thief!" screamed a voice just back of Paddy. 

"Hello, Sammy Jay! I see you don't feel any better than usual this morning," said Paddy. "Don't you want to sit up in this tree while I cut it down?" 

Sammy grew black in the face with anger, for he knew that Paddy was laughing at him. You remember how only a few days before he had been so intent on calling Paddy bad names that he actually hadn't noticed that Paddy was cutting the very tree in which he was sitting, and so when it fell he had had a terrible fright.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is Paddy?
Guess: a beaver
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: what kind of tree was he working on?

aspen tree