Here's a short story:

New Guinea (; ; ; or, historically, "") is a large island in Oceania. It is the world's second-largest island, after Greenland, covering a land area of , and the largest wholly or partly within the Southern Hemisphere and Oceania (if excluding Australia as an island). 

The island is divided between two countries: Papua New Guinea to the east, and Indonesia to the west. 

The island has been known by various names: 

The name "Papua" was used to refer to parts of the island before contact with the West. Its etymology is unclear; one theory states that it is from Tidore, the language used by the Sultanate of Tidore, which controlled parts of the island's coastal region. The name came from "papo" (to unite) and "ua" (negation), which means "not united" or, "territory that geographically is far away (and thus not united)". 

Ploeg reports that the word "papua" is often said to derive from the Malay word "papua" or "pua-pua", meaning "frizzly-haired", referring to the highly curly hair of the inhabitants of these areas. Another possibility, put forward by Sollewijn Gelpke in 1993, is that it comes from the Biak phrase "sup i papwa" which means 'the land below [the sunset]' and refers to the islands west of the Bird's Head, as far as Halmahera. Whatever its origin, the name "Papua" came to be associated with this area, and more especially with Halmahera, which was known to the Portuguese by this name during the era of their colonization in this part of the world. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is this story about?
Guess: New Guinea
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is that?
Guess: an island
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where?
Guess: in Oceania
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What country is it in?

Papua New Guinea and Indonesia