Here's a short story:

The Southwestern United States (also known as the American Southwest) is the informal name for a region of the western United States. Definitions vary a great deal and have never been standardized--and many have been proposed. For example, it might include the stretch from east of Los Angeles to El Paso, and from the Mexican border to south of Denver. The population for that particular definition area is around 11 million people, with over half that in the state of Arizona. The largest metropolitan areas are Phoenix (with a population over 4 million people) and Las Vegas (about 2 million); other significant population centers in the Southwest are Albuquerque, El Paso, and Tucson. 

Most of the area was part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain in the Spanish Empire before becoming part of Mexico. European settlement was almost non-existent outside New Mexico in 1848, when it became part of the United States through the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo; far southern Arizona was added in the later Gadsden Purchase. 

The geography of the region is mainly made up by four features: the Mojave, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Deserts, and the Colorado Plateau; although there are other geographical features as well, such as a portion of the Great Basin Desert. The deserts dominate the southern and western reaches of the area, while the plateau (which is largely made up of high desert) is the main feature north of the Mogollon Rim. The two major rivers of the region are the Colorado River, running in the northern and western areas, and the Rio Grande, running in the east, north to south. (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Is American Southwest the full name?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the more formal name of the region?
Guess: The Southwestern United States.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does it cover a definite area?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is Arizona generally included?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What is the largest city area in the region?
Guess: Phoenix
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How many people are included there?

over 4 million