Here's a short story:

A pet parrot that spoke with a British accent when it disappeared from its home four years ago has been reunited with its owner ---- and the bird now speaks Spanish. The reunion was brought about by Teresa Micco, a Southern California veterinarian who mistook Nigel, an African gray parrot, for her own missing bird, the Daily Breeze reported on Sunday. Teresa Micco tracked Nigel's microchip to Darren Chick, a British man who lives in Torrance, California. "I introduced myself and said, 'Have you lost a bird?' "Micco told the newspaper. "He first said, 'No' But he thought I meant recently " When she checked on Chick's name and said she had his African gray parrot, "He looked at me like I was crazy. " He said his bird had gone missing for four years earlier. Little is known about Nigel's whereabouts for the past four years, but Chick says the bird's British accent is gone, and it now chatters in Spanish. Chick says last week's reunion brought tears of joy to his eyes---despite the fact that Nigel bit him when he first tried to pick him up. Micco said the behaviour was not unusual and that Nigel would settle back in soon enough. "He is doing very well," Chick told the newspaper. "It is really strange. I knew it was him from the minute I saw him" It is the fifth parrot reunion helped by Micco, who has been running advertisements for her own missing bird for nine months. That parrot, Benjamin, escaped in February when it flew out through a door that had been left open. Julissa Sperling found Nigel outside her home and brought him to Micco after seeing one of her advertisements. "He was the happiest bird. He was singing and talking all the time," Sperling said. "He was barking like my dogs. I am from Panama, and he was saying, 'What happened?' in Spanish." (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What is the parrot's name?
Guess: Nigel
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does it speak Italian?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How many parrots has Micco reunited with their owners?
Guess: five
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is Micco's parrot?
Guess: Benjamin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Has it been missing since February?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who left the door open?
Guess: unknown
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What accent does Nigel have?
Guess: Spanish
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Any others?
Guess: it had a British accent but it is gone now
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Nigel missing for more or less time than Benjamin has been missing?
Guess: more
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Is it an African swallow?
Guess: now
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: In what city does its owner live?
Guess: Torrance, California.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What technology helped to locate the owner?
Guess: microchip
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was he happy to get the bird back?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: How did Nigel react initially?

Nigel bit him