Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XIV. 

WATER-PARTY 

Every year Mr Crich gave a more or less public water-party on the lake. There was a little pleasure-launch on Willey Water and several rowing boats, and guests could take tea either in the marquee that was set up in the grounds of the house, or they could picnic in the shade of the great walnut tree at the boat-house by the lake. This year the staff of the Grammar-School was invited, along with the chief officials of the firm. Gerald and the younger Criches did not care for this party, but it had become customary now, and it pleased the father, as being the only occasion when he could gather some people of the district together in festivity with him. For he loved to give pleasures to his dependents and to those poorer than himself. But his children preferred the company of their own equals in wealth. They hated their inferiors' humility or gratitude or awkwardness. 

Nevertheless they were willing to attend at this festival, as they had done almost since they were children, the more so, as they all felt a little guilty now, and unwilling to thwart their father any more, since he was so ill in health. Therefore, quite cheerfully Laura prepared to take her mother's place as hostess, and Gerald assumed responsibility for the amusements on the water. 

Birkin had written to Ursula saying he expected to see her at the party, and Gudrun, although she scorned the patronage of the Criches, would nevertheless accompany her mother and father if the weather were fine.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: who was invited to Mr Crich's party this year?
Guess: the staff of the Grammar-School
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: would his children be attending as well?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who else was invited?
Guess: the chief officials of the firm
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: was Mr Crich in good health?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: did the children really want to attend?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what didn't they like?
Guess: their inferiors' humility
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who would be the hostess?
Guess: Laura
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: and what was Gerald responsible for?
Guess: the amusements on the water.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: how often would this party take place?
Guess: Every year
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where?
Guess: on the lake
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where could guests choose to picnic?
Guess: in the shade of the great walnut tree
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who did the children prefer the company of?
Guess: their own equals in wealth.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who did Birken write to?
Guess: Ursula
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was he expecting?
Guess: to see her at the party,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who else would be there?
Guess: Gudrun
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: would there be tea at the party?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: is there a boat house on the property?
Guess: Yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where could guests drink tea?
Guess: in the marquee
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: where is that?

in the grounds of the house,