Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XIII 

We all knew Isobel's history. It had taken barely twenty minutes to tell it, but they had been twenty minutes of tragedy. We were all, I think, in different ways affected. Monsieur Feurgéres alone sat back in his seat like a carved image, his face white and haggard, his deep-set eyes fixed upon vacancy. We felt that he had passed wholly away from the world of present things. He himself was lingering amongst the shadows of that wonderful past, upon which he had only a moment before dropped the curtain. He had told us to ask him questions, but I for my part felt that questions just then were a sacrilege. Arthur, however, seemed to feel nothing of this. It was he who took the lead. 

"Isobel, then," he said, "is the granddaughter of the King of Waldenburg, the only child of his eldest daughter! Her mother was divorced from her husband, Prince of Herrshoff, and afterwards married to you. What about her father?" 

"He died two years after the divorce was granted," Feurgéres said without turning his head. "Isobel was hurried away from the Court through the influence of her aunt, the Archduchess of Bristlaw, and sent to a convent in France. It was not intended that she should ever reappear at the Court of Waldenburg." 

"Why not?" 

"The King is very old, and he is the richest man in Europe. Isobel is the daughter of his eldest and favourite child. The Archduchess also has a daughter, and, failing Isobel, she will inherit."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who knew of Isobel's history?
Guess: They all did
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it a happy story?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What kind of story was it?
Guess: tragedy.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was it a long story?
Guess: 20 minutes long
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: HOw did Monsieur Feurgeres look?
Guess: White and haggard,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where was he lingering?
Guess: in the shadows of the past
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who was Isobel related to?
Guess: the King of Waldenburg,
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How?
Guess: his granddaughter
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where her parents married?
Guess: divorced
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where is her father now?
Guess: Died
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: when?
Guess: 2 years after the divorce
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where did Isobel go after that?
Guess: a convent
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: where?
Guess: in France
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was she to come back?
Guess: no
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: why?
Guess: her aunt wants her daughter to inherit instead
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the King going to live a long time?
Guess: probably not
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: why?

he's very old