Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XXVII. LEONARD DE CARTIENNE. 

We all three stood and looked at one another for a moment, Milly Hart with her finger still pointing to the vacant place where the photograph had been. Then Cecil broke into a short laugh. 

"We're looking very tragical about it," he said lightly. "Mysterious joint disappearance of Leonard de Cartienne and a photograph of Mr. Hart. Now, if it had been a photograph of a pretty girl instead of a middle-aged man, we might have connected the two. Hallo!" 

He broke off in his speech and turned round. Standing in the doorway, looking at us, was Leonard de Cartienne, with a slight smile on his thin lips. 

"Behold the missing link--I mean man!" exclaimed Cecil. "Good old Leonard! Do you know, you gave us quite a fright. We expected to find you here and the room was empty. Are you better?" 

"Yes, thanks! I'm all right now," he answered. "I've been out in the yard and had a blow. What's Milly looking so scared about? And what was it I heard you say about a photograph?" 

"Father's likeness has gone," she explained, turning round with tears in her eyes. "It was there on the mantelpiece this afternoon and now, when we came in to look at it, it has gone!" 

"I should think that, if it really has disappeared," de Cartienne remarked incredulously, "the servant must have moved it. Ask her." 

Miss Hart rang the bell and in the meantime we looked about the room. It was all in vain. We could find no trace of it, nor could the servant who answered the summons give us any information. She had seen it in its usual place early in the morning when she had been dusting. Since then she had not entered the room.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: Who started laughing?
Guess: Cecil
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Where was Milly Hart's finger pointing at?
Guess: the vacant place
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Whose disappearance were they talking about?
Guess: Leonard de Cartienne
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: And whose photograph did they have?
Guess: the Father's
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: Who was standing in the doorway?

Leonard de Cartienne,