Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XXI. 

Shooting a Grizzly Bear 

"I wonder if Captain Grady is alone or if he has a number of the gang with him?" observed Paul, as he rode alongside of his younger brother, and just in front of the two men. 

"Most likely he is expecting trouble and has help at hand," returned Chet. "He knows well enough we won't give up our claim without a fight." 

"It's possible he thought to frighten us off until Allen got back from San Francisco." 

"Don't make any difference how much help he has," broke in Jack Blowfen. "He ain't no right to put ye out like a couple o' dogs, an' he knows it." 

In this manner the talk went on until a little after noon, when the locality known as Demon Hollow was reached. 

"Do you remember the badger, Paul?" laughed Chet. "The Hollow looks different in the daylight, doesn't it?" 

"Yes, indeed, but still--what was that?" 

"Jumpin' June bugs!" cried Jack Blowfen. "Dottery, did ye hear that?" 

"I did," replied the old ranch owner, and he clutched his gun apprehensively. 

"I heard something," said Chet. "What was it?" 

"A bar, boy, sure ez ye are born--a grizzly!" 

"Oh!" 

At once the little party came to a halt. To the right of them was a tall overhanging rock, to the left a number of prickly bushes. Ahead and behind was the winding and uneven road along which their animals had come on a walk. 

"Do ye see old Ephraim?" asked Jack Blowfen, as he, too, got his gun in readiness.  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: who wondered about the captian?
Guess: Paul
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: what was the captians name?
Guess: Captain Grady
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: who came back from Can fransico?
Guess: Allen
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Did the cap put someone out?
Guess: yes
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: how long did the talk last?

A little after noon