Here's a short story:

CHAPTER XIX GOOD MONEY FOR BAD 

At luncheon Josie appeared at the table, fresh as ever, and Mary Louise began to relate to her and to her grandfather the occurrences of the morning. When she came to tell how Sol Jerrems had declared the money counterfeit, Josie suddenly sprang up and swung her napkin around her head, shouting gleefully: 

"Glory hallelujah! I've got him. I've trapped Old Swallowtail at last." 

They looked at her in amazement. 

"What do you mean?" asked Mary Louise. 

Josie sobered instantly. 

"Forgive me," she said; "I'm ashamed of myself. Go on with the story. What became of that counterfeit bill?" 

"Mr. Jerrems has it yet. He is keeping it to show to a commercial traveler, who is to visit his store to-morrow. If the man declares the money is good, then Ingua may buy her things." 

"We won't bother the commercial traveler," said Josie, in a tone of relief. "I'm going straight down to the store to redeem that bill. I want it in my possession." 

Colonel Hathaway regarded her gravely. 

"I think our female detective, having said so much and having exhibited such remarkable elation, must now explain her discoveries to us more fully," said he. 

"I'd rather not, just yet," protested Josie. "But what have I said in my madness, and what did my words imply?" 

"From the little I know of this case," replied the Colonel, "I must judge that you believe Mr. Cragg to be a counterfeiter, and that his mysterious business is--to counterfeit. In this out-of-the-way place," he continued, thoughtfully, "such a venture might be carried on for a long time without detection. Yet there is one thing that to me forbids this theory."  (End of story)

Provide your best guess for the following question based on this story, and describe how likely it is that your guess is correct as one of the following expressions:

Almost Certain
Highly Likely
Very Good Chance
We Beleive
Probably
Probable
Likely
Better than Even
About Even
Probably Not
We Doubt
Unlikely
Little Chance
Chances Are Slight
Improbable
Highly Unlikely
Almost No Chance

Give ONLY the guess and your confidence, no other words or explanation. For example:

Guess: <most likely guess, as short as possible; not a complete sentence, just the guess!>
Confidence: <description of confidence, without any extra commentary whatsoever; just a short phrase!>

Here are a few examples of questions and answers:

Question: What did Josie call Mr. Cragg?
Guess: Old Swallowtail
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who told the story about the money?
Guess: Josie
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was the money declared good?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who said it wasn't?
Guess: Sol Jerrems
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was Josie sad about this?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How do you know?
Guess: She shouted gleefully.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was she sitting still when she shouted?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: What did she wave in the air?
Guess: Her napkin
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Was she proud of herself for being so happy?
Guess: No
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: How did she feel?
Guess: ashamed
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who has the money now?
Guess: Mr. Jerrems
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does Mr. Jerrems own a bar?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does he own a store?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Who is going to show the money too?
Guess: A commercial traveler
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: When?
Guess: tomorrow
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does Josie agree with the plan?
Guess: No.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Question: Does she want the money herself?
Guess: Yes.
Confidence: <appropriate level of confidence in this guess>

Now answer the following question in the same format.

Question: What is her grandfather's name?

Colonel Hathaway