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Can placebo effects be harnessed to improve treatment outcomes? Stories of a placebo changing bodily function are important in promoting mind-body medicine, but mostly turn out to be false positives. Was this one an exception?
A lesson in critical appraisal: How to screen complicated studies in order to decide whether to put the time and energy into a closer look.
The study:
Howe LC, Goyer JP, Crum AJ. Harnessing the Placebo Effect: Exploring the Influence of Physician Characteristics on Placebo Response. Health Psychology Vol 36(11), Nov 2017, 1074-1082 http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/hea0000499
From the Abstract:
After inducing an allergic reaction in participants through a histamine skin prick test, a health care provider administered a cream with no active ingredients and set either positive expectations (cream will reduce reaction) or negative expectations (cream will increase reaction).
The provider demonstrated either high or low warmth, or either high or low competence.
Results: The impact of expectations on allergic response was enhanced when the provider acted both warmer and more competent and negated when the provider acted colder and less competent.
Conclusion: This study suggests that placebo effects should be construed not as a nuisance variable with mysterious impact but instead as a psychological phenomenon that can be understood and harnessed to improve treatment outcomes.
Why I dismissed this study
The small sample size was set in a power analysis based on the authors hopes of finding a moderate effect size, not any existing results. With only 20 participants per cell, most significant findings are likely to be false positives.
The authors had a complicated design with multiple manipulations and time points, They examined 2 physiological measures, but only reported results for one of them in the paper, the one with stronger results.
The authors did not report a key overall test of whether there was a significant main or interaction effect. Without such a finding, jumping down to significant comparisons between groups is likely to a false positive.
The authors did not adjust for multiple comparisons, despite doing a huge number.
The authors did not report raw mean differences for comparisons, only differences at two time points controlling for gender, race, and the first two time points. No rationale is given.
The authors used language like 'marginally significant, and 'different, but not significantly so,' which might suggest they were chasing and selectively reporting significant findings.
The phenomena under study was mild allergic reaction in the short term: three time points, 9-15 minutes, with data for 2 earlier time points not reported as outcomes. It is unclear the mechanism by which an experimental manipulation could have an observable effect on such a mild reaction in such a short period of time.
Claims of placebo effects figures heavily in discussions of the power of the mind over the body. Yet, this power is greatly exaggerated by lay persons and in the lay press and social media. Effects of a placebo manipulation on objective physiological measures, as opposed to subjective self-report measures are uncommon and usually turn out to be false positives.
A New England Journal of Medicine review of 130 clinical trials found
Little evidence in general that placebos had powerful clinical effects. Although placebos had no significant effects on objective or binary outcomes, they had possible small benefits in studies with continuous subjective outcomes and for the treatment of pain. Outside the setting of clinical trials, there is no justification for the use of placebos.
I often cite another great NEJM study showing the sharp contrast in positive results obtained subjective self-report versus negative results with objective physical functioning measures.
That is probably the case with a recent report of effects of expectancies and interpersonal relationship on a mild allergic reaction induced by a histamine skin prick test (SPT). The study involved manipulation of the perceived warmth and competence of a provider, as well as whether research participants were told that an inert cream being applied would have a positive or negative effect.
The authors invoke in claiming support that psychological variables do indeed influence a mild allergic reaction. Examining all of the numerous pairwise comparisons, would be a long and tedious task. However, I decided from some details of the design and analysis of the study, I would not proceed.
Some notable features of the study.
The key manipulations of high versus low warmth and high versus low competence were in the behavior of a single unblinded experimenter.
The design is described as 2x2x2 with a cell size of n= 20 (19 in one cell).
It is more properly described as 2x2x2x(5) because of the 5 time points after the provider administeried the skin prick:
(T1 = 3 min post-SPT, T2 = 6 mi post-SPT and cream administered directly afterward, T3 = 9 min post-SPTand 3 min post-cream,T4 = 12 min post-SPT and 6 min post-cream, T5 =15 min post-SPT and 9 min. post-cream).
The small number of participants per cell was set in a power analysis based on hope a moderate effect size could be shown, not on past results.
The physiological reaction was measured in terms of size of a wheal (raised bump) and size of the flare (redness surrounding the bump).
Numerous other physiological measures were obtained, including blood pressure and pre-post session saliva samples. It is not stated what was done with these data, but they could have been used to evaluate further the manipulation of experimenter behavior.
No simple correlation between participants' perceptions of warm and competence are reported, which would have been helpful in interpreting the 2×2 crossing of warmth and competence.
In the supplementary materials, readers are told ratings of itchiness and mood were obtained after the skin prick. No effects of the experimental manipulation were observed, which would seem not to support the effectiveness of the intervention.
No overall ANOVA or test for significance of interactions is presented.
Instead, numerous paired comparisons are presented without correction for post hoc multiplicity.
Further comparisons were conducted with a sample that was constructed post hoc:
To better understand the mechanism by which expectations differed, within a setting of high warmth and high competence, we compared the wheal and flare size for the positive and negative expectations conditions to a follow-up sample who received neutral expectations. This resulted in a total sample of N=62.
Differences arising using this sample were discussed, despite significance levels being p = .095 and p = .155.
Raw mean scores are not presented nor discussed. Instead, all comparisons controlled for gender and race and size of the wheal at Times 1 and 2,
Only the size of the wheal is reported in the body of the paper, but it was reported
The results on the flare of the reaction were mostly similar (see the supplemental material available online).
Actually, the results reported in the supplemental material were considerably weaker, with claims of differences being marginally significant and favoring results that were only significant at particular time points.
So, what do you think? If you are interested, take a look at the study and let me know if I was premature to dismiss it.
Preorders are being accepted for e-books providing skeptical looks at mindfulness and positive psychology, and arming citizen scientists with critical thinking skills. Right now there is a special offer for free access to a Mindfulness Master Class. But hurry, it won't last.
I will also be offering scientific writing courses on the web as I have been doing face-to-face for almost a decade. I want to give researchers the tools to get into the journals where their work will get the attention it deserves.
Sign up at my website to get advance notice of the forthcoming e-books and web courses, as well as upcoming blog posts at this and other blog sites. Get advance notice of forthcoming e-books and web courses. Lots to see at CoyneoftheRealm.com.


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The Perks of Joining My Mailing List
My PLUS SEXY customers Nicola Kitty-Wally and Jeanette Greene were the winners of my recent mailing list contest. These lovely ladies enjoyed a night on the town with me at the Project Runway All Stars event. Sign up now, if you haven't already and who knows– you might just win a sweet surprise!

subset: commoncrawl


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Continuing my quest into the possible early peopling of America by Neanderthals, I have come across an interesting paper by James Guthrie (2001) [1] on Human Leukocyte Antigens (HLA).
In a previous post, I wrote the following:
Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) system
HLA are the loci of genes which encode for major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in humans and as such have an important role in the immune system. Ten Neanderthal HLA class I alleles have been found among humans: A*02, A*26, A*66, B*51:01/08, B*07:02/03/06, C*16:02, C*07:02.
Of these, two are found among Native Americans: The paired alleles A*02 and C*07:02. While their average global frequency is approx. 2% , the highest global frequency occurs among the Yucpa of Venezuela (26.9%), followed by Navajo, US (13.1%) and Lisu, Yunan, China (10.4%).
The high frequency in America and China is consonant with the high proportion of Neanderthal admixture in those regions.
Guthrie's paper deals with Native American HLA and mentions one of those "Neanderthal HLA alleles", the A*02 (bold is mine):
Distributions of these ten HLAs in other parts of the world are not what would be expected from the premise that Americans stem mainly from Northeast Asians. Instead, the basic American populations seem most like those of western Asia and of Southeast Asia, paralleling the findings of Steele and Powell (1992) regarding Paleo-Indian skulls. Their multivariate analysis showed craniofacial features closer to those of southern Asians and Europeans than to those of northern Asians. The only HLA prominent in both America and northern Asia is A*2, which CS call ubiquitous and which is also strong throughout Europe, South China, and Japan... [1]
The A*2 prevalence in Europe and China is evidently due to their closeness to Neanderthals.
The resemblance of Amerindians to Western Asians is also supported by the genome sequenced from a 24 Kya H. sapiens (named MA-1) from Mal'ta in south-central Siberia:
- It suggests that between 14 to 38% of Native American autosomal ancestry originated through a gene flow from this population.
- MA-1 is closer to contemporary Native Americans than to Northeast Asians suggesting that those groups may have originated in secondary wave(s) of immigrants from East Asia [2], or that back-migrations from America dispersed other lineages in Central and Western Eurasia [3].
- Ma-1's estimated shared drift statistic, (f3), places Amerindians closest to Northern Europeans and Northern - Central and Western Siberians, and furthest apart from Eastern Siberians and Asians. Possibly indicating a common Neanderthal background, which could explain the European signature found in pre-Hispanic Amerindians (i.e. Kennewick man).
The Phoenician connection
Guthrie's paper also deals with other HLAs, with interesting inferences:
The A*32 allele seems to indicate a Mediterranean or specifically Aegean impact in the Caribbean region (including on the Cherokee) as well as on Tupians of the lower Amazon (Oyampí and Parakana). It seems to connect this set and the Central Amerind composite with northern India, Sardinia, the Tuareg of Algeria, and with populations around the Adriatic Sea in Greece, Yugoslavia, and Italy. A*32 is absent from other South American samples except the Mapuche.
A*32 levels in the Mapuche, Oyampí, and the Central Amerind composite samples are among the top nine in the CS tabulation (7-9%), and the Tupian Oyampí near the mouth of the Amazon River have the second highest American frequency. If this is not an artifact of sampling [...]
Both A*32 and A*30 are found at significant levels in Greece, Sardinia, and in the Central Amerind composite. They also appear at anomalously high frequencies in Samoan outliers but are not documented elsewhere in Pacific islands. This may reflect limited exploration of the Pacific by Mediterraneans who otherwise left few traces except (controversial) petroglyphs. [1]
Curiously this may be an indication of Phoenician, Cretan, Mycenean or Carthaginian genes during their sea voyages beyond Gibraltar. (See my many posts on Phoenicians in America).
No Paracas HLA data
Online sources cite Guthrie as having proven that Paracas mummies HLA is European. This is false. Check his only comment on Paracas Mummies below:
European Genes from other Systems
There may be no clear marker for European ancestry among the "classical" genetic variants, although a high frequency of the Rhesus cde (r) allele might qualify. CS [Cavalli-Sforza] also considered immunoglobin f;b, adenylate kinase 1, and ABO type B, when found together, to indicate Caucasoid admixture in eastern North America (p. 337). Occurrences among indigenous Americans of cde or A or B of the ABO system were once attributed to recent admixture and databases were "corrected" accordingly. It is now understood that some of these unexpected alleles arrived in antiquity. Mummies from Paracas, Peru, possessed both A and B antigens (Allison et al. 1976, 1978). [1]
So he does not mention HLAs, only Blood groups and the fact that Paracas Mummies had A and B antigens. Which does not mean that they were Europeans.
[1] James L. Guthrie, (2001). Human Lymphocyte Antigens: Apparent Afro-Asiatic, Southern Asian, & European HLAs in Indigenous American Populations
Pre-Columbiana, Volume 2, Number 2 & 3, December 2000 & June 2001 (online at New England Antiquities Research Association
[2] Raghavan M., Pontus Skoglund P., et al., (2013). Upper Palaeolithic Siberian genome reveals dual ancestry of Native Americans. Nature 505, 87–91 (02 Jan 2014) doi:10.1038/nature12736
[3] Dziebel, G., (2013). The Demographic Isolation of Amerindians and Back Migrations to the Old World in the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene: From the History of Ideas to Contemporary Scientific Realities. Paleoamerican Odyssey Conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico 17 Oct. 2013
Patagonian Monsters - Cryptozoology, Myths & legends in Patagonia Copyright 2009-2014 by Austin Whittall ©


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Bump Show Up & Show Out, the latest cut from Warren G which features Snoop Dogg on the assist. It dropped on Tuesday, October 12th, 2010. Warren G's horizons are broadening with each new release, and Show Up & Show Out is no exception. It's a worthy addition to a catalogue that has seen much growth since Warren G stepped foot in the rap game. We're looking forward to hearing more.
Have you heard Warren G's This Is Dedicated To You, featuring LaToiya Williams? If you're down, make sure to visit Warren G's profile page for the newest info, news, songs, and mixtapes. Follow Warren G on Facebook and Twitter, if you aren't already.
How's the chemistry here? Can you appreciate the bars here?


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Fiberglass body parts include: Bumpers, Front fenders, Doors, Hood, Deck lid, Dashboard, Lexan windows, Aluminum floors. Ford 427 F.E. Motor with Carol Shelby aluminum block, Ford racing aluminum heads, 871 Hampton Blower, & Jezel belt drive. Many more high performance parts power glide GM trans, strange 9 inch rear, Wilwood 4-wheel disc. Monocoque racing wheels, Hoosier Tires Magnaflow exhaust. $85,000.00
Professionally Custom Built
Independent front, 9 inch rear, 4-wheel disc., LT4 small-block, Tremec 6-speed manual trans., Custom leather interior, AC, Custom Mercedes carpet & top. Very Nice Custom Street Rod. $125,000.00.
1934 Ford 4 Door Sedan Street Rod Original Ford body. Independent suspension Jag Rear small block Chevy, 700R4 overdrive trans., B&M super charger, AC, PW, PS, PDB. Previously Owned by: Eddie Vanhalen. Car to-be Sold with Vanhalen Guitar signed by all band members & signed portrait with Certification. $90,000.00
This Ford Galaxie is a clone of the most successful Ford Galaxie ever built for drag racing. The Original car stacked up 65 wins and set 22 track records during the 1963 racing season and was also the first Ford in history to hold an NHRA record in Super Stock Class. Car is exact replica $75,000.00
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1970 Boss 302 Mustang all original , restored ,real boss 302. $75,000


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30 Years
QT software
1988 - 2018
QT software GmbH
Karl-Friedrich-Gauss-Str. 18
D-45657 Recklinghausen
Absoft Pro Fortran for Linux (ESD), 32-BitArt.No.: APFL2
No ratings.
Category: for Linux
Pro Fortran features exclusive dynamic AP load balancing technology for 20% faster code. A new SMP & Vector Analyzer to graphically review your optimized code, GPU support & more!
More information: www.absoft.com.
A product brief can be found here (PDF).
ESD Electronic Software Delivery:
We send a link to Absoft's download account and a license key. With this you can download and install the the licensed product. If you encounter difficulties, Absoft's Support helps, or you contact us. We don't leave you alone, if something is not working properly!
Commercial License: Commercial Licenses permit a commercial use.
More Variants and Updates: More variants of the compiler systems are available, e.g. for STAR-CD, DEFORM. You also can purchase updates and maintenance contract from us. Also, mixed licenses for different operating systems are possible (e.g. Windows & Linux license combination: "MaxFlex2, MaxFlex3"). Please inquire.
Maintenance: Maintenance is additionally available. Absoft's maintenance ("Continuing Software Maintenance (CSM)") includes for one year all updates and technical support by Absoft. Patches and service packs can be downloaded from Absofts WebSite.
Art.No.: APFL2.0001
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Art.No.: APFL2


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Member Favorites: 0
KumiShe's Toshiki's friend and supports him all the time tough he always gets in trouble. Kumi likes Toshiki the way he is but Toshiki can't see this and try to win her favour by showing his new skills which he had bought from the ability shop
Voice ActorsNo voice actors have been added to this character. Help improve our database by searching for a voice actor, and adding this character to their roles here.


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I am inspired by our patients every day. They are the heroes that make my days at Cancer Treatment Centers of America® so rewarding.
- Location
- Philadelphia
- Certifications
- Licensed Chiropractor
"My focus is to help patients with pain reduction, with the intention of reducing the need for pain medication. Additionally, I work to improve mobility and overall range of motion. By increasing mobility and reducing pain through chiropractic, the goal is that patients will feel less stress and anxiety and experience relief from some of the common side effects of cancer treatment," says Dr. Jeffrey Sklar, Chiropractor at Cancer Treatment Centers of America® (CTCA) in Philadelphia.
Dr. Sklar has been practicing chiropractic and rehabilitative physical therapy for over 16 years. He earned a doctorate of chiropractic degree from Palmer College of Chiropractic in Davenport, Iowa and a bachelor's degree from Pennsylvania State University.
Dr. Sklar has extensive training and clinical experience in treating patients with neuromuscular and skeletal conditions, as well as more complicated conditions, such as cancer. He practices Palmer package, flexion distraction, activator technique and sacro occiputal technique.
Throughout his career, Dr. Sklar has had a professional seminar, newspaper and media presence. In 2006, Dr. Sklar received the City Paper Reader's Choice Award for Best Chiropractor in Philadelphia.
Prior to joining CTCA®, Dr. Sklar served as the chiropractor at Triune Chiropractic Counseling and Wellness Center in Center City Philadelphia, an integrative wellness center he co-founded in 2002. There, Dr. Sklar practiced state-of-the-art injury rehabilitation and supervised wellness services, including pilates, yoga, muscular therapy and acupuncture.
In addition to his professional experience in oncology, Dr. Sklar has witnessed the struggle and success of cancer survivors in his personal life. His mother and brother are both cancer survivors. His stepmother is also a three-time survivor and former co-chair of the Komen Race For The Cure in Philadelphia.
In May 2009, Dr. Sklar joined the chiropractic team at our hospital in Philadelphia. When asked why he came here, Dr. Sklar says, "Being a founder of a holistic integrative wellness center in Philadelphia and having treated many cancer patients over the years, the philosophy of the Mother Standard® of care and patient empowerment at CTCA resonates deeply in my practice paradigm."
Another element that drew him to CTCA, Dr. Sklar says, is the whole-person model of cancer care. "Patients are in a fight for their lives. CTCA gives them a full spectrum of services in addition to cutting-edge and advanced technologies in diagnostics and treatment. Patients are treated as whole beings—body, mind and spirit. Every patient has an opportunity to collaborate with their oncologist and explore additional complementary therapies in conjunction with their conventional cancer treatments."
Dr. Sklar says he and the other members of a patient's care team work together to meet the individual needs of each patient. "The team of clinicians at CTCA creates a very satisfying work environment and experience. Being able to easily and quickly confer about patient care with any clinician on a patient's care team is an unparalleled advantage over more conventional facilities."
According to Dr. Sklar, patients report that they can tell the difference when they come to the hospital. "CTCA works tirelessly 24/7 to create a special environment where people know that they are more than just a patient. They can see their team working together to get the best results possible," he says.
Dr. Sklar lectures to chiropractors around the country about the importance of chiropractic care for cancer patients and the importance of safe and effective treatment. He is the Alternate Delegate for Pennsylvania for the American Chiropractic Association, a District Board member for the Pennsylvania Chiropractic Association, and a member of the American Association of Integrative Medicine.


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05 May
Spelt bread recipe and poached egg ……..
Posted by: madeleine lee Posted in: Cooking with Madeleine Comments: 0
Every other morning I make bread, I love the taste, the smell as it bakes in the swedish interior design oven …… and this recipe is so simple ….. it takes less time to bake than it would to pop out and buy a loaf ……. anyway my husband is spoiled now and charmingly expects it for his breakfast every morning ……. with poached eggs of course…………
Take 500g spelt flour
10g fast acting dry yeast
50g sunflower seeds – 50g sesame seeds – 50g linseeds – add a handful of fennel seeds and honey for a Swedish twist
500ml warm water
Heat oven to 200C – combine all ingredients, adding water last – mix well – turn into greased tin- pop in oven for one hour – remove and leave to cool- yum and gluten free too – you can sprinkle on seeds before the bread goes in oven as I have done in pic above …
The perfect poached egg
I have tried many ways and this works the best for me ….. fresh free range eggs are best … organic duck eggs even better ……. boil water, add salt and drop of white vinegar … crack egg into small cup, just small enough to contain egg…. whisk boiling water to make swirling vortex … pour egg from cup into water ……. four mins later lift out with slotted spoon … drain … add to toast with a slice of cheese and ham …… parsley … black cracked pepper ….. mmmmmmm … I do one egg at a time …..
serve with a kiss …………..


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text:
Back in late sixteenth century there weren't many ways for social gathering. For the royals and wealthy ones it would be the court, but for the mob it would be either taverns or theatres (what included visits from the wealthy ones too, I must say). Because of the masses gathering, theatres were politically relevant. In this text I will refer to open theatres like the Globe or the Swan, not the Blackfriars, which for having a roof, more confortable (yet fewer) chairs and more expensive tickets, thus more élitaire, doesn't really serve my purpose here.
Theatres weren't places only for those who could afford them, but for practically everyone: literate and illiterate, rich and poor. Theatre was also a sort of news channel, school, parliament, club and fashion show, not forgetting that theatre could be just entertainment.
Theatres had different prices and this way people of the same class would normally be next to each other. The more covered (roof-wise) and the more confortable the benches, the more expensive the ticket became and the other way round. Some patrons would even be allowed (against the most expensive ticket) to sit on the stage to see better and better be seen. So, in a theatre not only the fabric of the garments of theatregoers spoke for their rankings but also the place from where they watched a performance. A normal worker would be in position of affording a visit to the theatre regularly because cheapest tickets were cheap for the life standards of that time.
Theatre could be compared to fashion shows today not because anyone could buy (if they could afford) what they saw on the stage as elaborate costumes, since the Sumptuary Law forbade any common citizen of wearing certain fabrics as silk or velvet, for example, but because it was just fun to see what the noblesse and everybody else was wearing. Costumes were very important for playhouses, as they did not invest too much in sets and therefore costumes were perhaps the only way of linking characters to their professions or rankings.
Talking about fashion news, theatre was like a news channel. Audience members got information from other audience members (word of mouth) of what was going on and also learnt the news from the stage through verse or prose. Developments in science, abuses committed by the church and by royals, wars, stories of infidelity, family clashes, bastard children, witchcraft, rebel women and so on. Human beings were always keen on learning the news of their time and today it isn't different.
Yes, Man is eager to learn even if education isn't possible to all. Theatre in Shakespeare's era provided culture not only in terms of entertainment but in terms of education too. Some audience members, the mob, would hardly be in position of hearing beautiful, melodic and poetic English in the streets if it wasn't for the lines characters spoke. This was English and literature class they never thought they would get. They would probably know no science if wasn't for some plays that worked around scientific topics. History and geography the mob learnt from plots of past wars in France or love relationships in Italy. Philosophy and psychology was present pretty much in every play and religion too, when Muslim men marry white Christian women – suddenly Muslims became human beings too, not only darkened enemy beasts from the south. Literate or illiterate, theatre was a school for all.
Theatre was also a dangerous mass gathering, when around three thousand people would come together for a performance. According to some historians, there was little violence during performances, some petty theft and even prostitution yes, but almost no fatal occurrences. The danger was the ideas being formed by the masses; single ideas that the majority of people shared and gained from the plays. More rights for women? Deposing a king? Starting a war against Spain? Audience members suddenly became parliament members because the power of the masses was always incontestable, even though the masses not always took action when they needed to out of fear, disinterest or egoism.
When I mentioned that theatre could be compared to a club today obviously I hadn't pictured Renaissance people dancing to techno sounds, but being excited to what they were experiencing, standing, booing, throwing objects onto the stage, screaming and shouting to joy or repulse to what they were watching happening on stage. Certainly a little singing and dancing took place to the music they were listening. Theatre was a daylight club (not a night club), a matinée, a starter for further entertainment later in the evening and also a basis for hot debates, regardless if those debating it were people with or without reason. I am sure poets, actors and all the rest of theatre personnel would feel delighted to know that their work was being commented upon, not just forgotten. Bad marketing out of taste or ignorance can also be good marketing.
Audiences may have gone to the theatre for all the reasons which I explained before and many more, but still in the first place they wanted to be entertained and Renaissance theatres knew their business by offering numbers with the beloved clowns (the only artists allowed to speak ill in public about the royals including the queen and king in a funny way), musicians, boys-only troupes, mixed troupes with younger boys taking the women's parts and older men taking all the other parts, stylised movements, convincing costumes, special sound effects and the interesting plots per se.
One thing is sure: audiences back in Shakespearean times were far more exciting than the ones we have today sitting quietly in the dark saving a critic in the safety of their anonymity of their computer screens, that is if they care even to think about what they just watched. Renaissance audiences were alive and aware, thirsty for knowledge and entertainment and they would come together as great supporters for art, always wanting more, always getting more because the change of repertoire would never stop as it never did.


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Friday, March 11, 2011
Inspired Again...
[Pay it forward for creative people]: I promise to send something handmade to the first five people who leave a comment on this post. They must in turn, promise to post this and send something they made to the first five people to reply. It must be sent sometime in 2011. It can be anything you have made... from jewellery, sewing, cards ...it all counts.
I already know what i'm going to make and i can't wait to get moving on it!
Ready, Set, Go! :)))
9 comments:
- Felicity said...
morning :))
I too love looking at blogs and getting inspired.
haven't seen anything like this, but hey.. what not.
I will give it a shot.
Thanks for the opportunity :))
Have a lovely weekend.
PS looks like I am always on the PC,lol, but I have just chucked the boy outside and mum has a bit time to catch up on the www. lol
- March 11, 2011 at 8:33 AM
- Tania Martyns said...
Hi Julie,
every day in the morning I visit the blogs I like.
Seeking inspiration, i admire the pages and wonder what was the creative process that was used in this or that LO.
I am a long time admiring the details.
is very good to even be close to work away so amazing!
*Excuse the mistakes, I'm using an online translator.
Hugs !
- March 11, 2011 at 8:51 AM
- Kim said...
Hi Jules, sounds like fun!
I'll give it a go and love being inspired by creative people like yourself!
Have an awesome w/end.
- March 11, 2011 at 9:20 AM
- Leanne said...
Awesome!! I'll have a little something in the mail for you soon...x
- March 11, 2011 at 9:51 AM
- Jessemiah said...
What a FAB idea!!! LOVE it : ) There is so much inspiration on the web it's hard not to just sit and look at blogs instead of actually scrapping! Love and Peace xox
- March 11, 2011 at 11:10 AM
- Melinda said...
oooooo I missed out!! Never mind, what a fab idea tho! Have a great weekend Jules :)) xx
- March 11, 2011 at 12:49 PM
- Melinda said...
YAY!!! That is great!!! Thanks so much Jules!! xx
- March 11, 2011 at 2:11 PM
- lindy said...
Oh Julie i just love the concept what a great idea
- March 11, 2011 at 2:38 PM
- karennarelle said...
what a great idea.
- March 16, 2011 at 8:24 PM


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1,2 Ethanediol is a colourless syrupy liquid with a high boiling point of 470 K. Its high boiling point is due to the presence of intermolecular hydrogen bonding. It shows all the reaction of -OH group.
Ethenediol is used as a coolant in automobiles. It is used for making dacron a fibre used in making clothes.


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Most Comfortable Shoes..Not What You Might Think.Reviewing: Converse Chucks All Star Hi | Rating:
I got my first pair of chucks at the mall one day because I needed some shoes badly. I'm one of those people who keep their shoes until they are pretty much destroyed which is why I decided to get chucks because I heard they were pretty durable. I finally decided on the hi ones in classic black and white since they go with almost everything. Long story short I'm on my third pair of chucks but now in a brown and low. They could last forever if you take care of them well and avoid water at all costs. They are so comfortable I would use my old ones for P.E. The other month I even bought some Vans thinking they would be comfortable boy was I wrong. I suppose the only thing Vans are good for is the grip and switched back to my converse for which I will never abandon again. Nowadays you can even customize your own converse with different colors and even a personalized id on the heel. If you need an everyday shoe I would definitely suggest these Converse All stars.


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- Description
Make your bathroom an oasis with a VIGO VG6031CL40WL frameless round shower enclosure.
- Shower Enclosures
- Chrome or brushed nickel finished hardware with stainless steel construction
- Thick .3125-in. clear tempered glass
- Water tight seals prevent leakage
- Door left-side opening.
- Warranty : Limited lifetime warranty.
Single water deflector redirects water toward the inside of the shower.
Side and door clear seals keep the shower watertight between wall and glass door or fixed panel.
Full-length clear seals make the shower waterproof where door and side panel overlap.
.3125-in. Clear tempered glass ANSI Z97.1 certified.
Chrome or Stainless Steel finished stainless steel construction hardware ensure superior quality and durability, VIGO lifetime guarantee to never rust.
Specially designed rollers make door closing smooth and effortless.
Door left-side opening.
Top rail support ensures wall anchoring and reinforces wall stability.
Discrete door handle mounted on pre drilled glass.
Overall dimensions: 40.625-in. W x 40.625-in. L x 74.625-in. H
Door opening 35-in.
Shower Tray: VG06039WHT40
Constructed of acrylic with fiberglass reinforcement, this VIGO shower base features textured bottom for added safety.
Durable cross-linked cast acrylic shell is extremely scratch and stain resistant, yet renewable because the color goes all the way through the material.
Non-porous surface makes cleaning and sanitizing faster and more effective.
Multi-layered backing of thick fiberglass / resin encloses wood reinforcement to prevent flexing of floor pan.
At least 30% thicker and stronger than other makes.
Pre-leveled with integral tile flange on 2 sides to facilitate installation.
Textured bottom for extra safety.
Standard 3.5-in. pre-drilled drain opening.
Overall dimensions: 43.625-in. W x 43.625-in. L x 4.875-in. H
Refer to model number: VG6031CHCL40WR / VG6031STCL40WR
All VIGO Shower Bases offer a 2 Year Limited Warranty and All VIGO Shower Doors offer a Limited Lifetime Warranty.
Also Available In These Variations
Finish: Chrome SKU: VG6031CHCL40WL UPC: 813775017759
Finish: Stainless Steel SKU: VG6031STCL40WL UPC: 813775017926
- Product Q&A
- Reviews
- About Vigo
About The Company
Founded over a decade ago, we at Vigo Industries have quickly validated our reputation for consistently delivering distinguished style with superior functionality and affordability while maintaining the highest standards of quality and continuity in our vast product lines. Guided by a commitment to core value and unique design, the Vigo Industries brand has become a fusion between the leading edge technology and an eye toward design – a true blend of quality and durability, complimented by elegance and style.
Our engineering and design teams always look ahead to fulfill the consumers ever-evolving needs and tastes – bringing you the latest styles and trends. Efficiency, elegance and design are married in our abundant collections of Kitchen and Bath products – the epitome of sophisticated engineering. Investing in extensive research and design, while applying smart technological solutions allows us at Vigo Industries to manufacture products to simplify the lives of our valued customers. Our key element of success is your satisfaction – and we take pride in the unmatched customer service we are able to provide daily. Our dynamic entrepreneurial spirit and passion for servicing customers, extends throughout our organization – placing nothing but the upmost of value on our relationships with customers and suppliers. Trust, integrity and innovation is what we stand for.
Products Offered
Vigo manufactures and delivers the best quality Vanity Sets, Showers, Glass Sinks, Stainless Steel Kitchen Sinks, & Faucets.
This warranty shall not apply to instances of incorrect operating procedures, breakages, or damages caused by fault through improper installation, carelessness, abuse, misuse, misapplication, improper maintenance, or alteration of the Product, as well as chemical or natural corrosion, accident, fire, flood, an act of God, or any other casualty. Avoid abrasive cleaners, steel wools, and harsh chemicals as these will scratch, damage, and / or dull the product and / or finish and void this warranty. The owner/end-user of the Product covered by the present warranty is entirely responsible for its proper installation and any applicable plumbing or electrical wiring. VIGO neither installs nor supervises the installation nor hires a contractor for this purpose; consequently, VIGO cannot be held responsible for any default, breakage, or damages caused thereby or resulting thereof, either directly or indirectly. The owner/end-user must provide access to the components of the Product as described in the installation guide so that VIGO can execute the warranty specified herein. If such access is not available, all expenses to provide said access will be the responsibility of the owner/end-user. This warranty does not apply to Products that have not been installed or operated in accordance with instructions supplied by VIGO and all applicable rules, regulations, and legislation pertaining to such installations. This warranty does not apply unless the VIGO Product is installed by fully insured licensed professionals. Vigo strongly recommends that such licensed professionals, who have experience, install our bathroom and kitchen products. Installation of certain products, including, without limitation, glass products (i.e., shower doors and glass sinks) by an inexperienced person may result in glass breakage and, consequently, cause personal injury or death. VIGO is not liable for personal injuries or deaths to any persons or for any direct, special, incidental, or consequential damage, loss of time, loss of profits, inconvenience, incidental expenses, labor or material charges, or any other costs resulting from the use of the product or equipment or pertaining to the application of the present warranty, or resulting from the removal or replacement of any product or element or part covered by this warranty.
EXCEPT AS OTHERWISE PROVIDED ABOVE, VIGO MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR COMPLIANCE WITH ANY CODE. In any case, VIGO cannot be held liable for any amount over and above the purchase price paid for the Product by the owner/end-user, contractor, or builder.
|Ship Weight
|Ship State
|Ship Zip
|Ship Length
|Ship Width
|Ship Height
|40 5/8
|40 5/8
|74 5/8
|Number of Bodysprays
|Glass Thickness
|Glass Type
|Includes Hand Held?
|Includes Shower Head?
|Includes Tray?
|Includes Back Wall?
|ADA Compliant?
|Door Side
|Drain Placement
|Rear Center
|Wheelchair Accessible?
|Door Type
|Number of Doors
|Door Style
- Ships on a pallet via Freight LTL carrier


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Insurance is optional, but highly recommended. Our items are pack with care. Normally, accident rate is low that 's why insurance is cheap.
* Seller responsible for export tax, buyer responsible for import tax, if any. Customer could email us about custom declaration way in order for best tax arrangement, in this case they responsible for declaration.


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The Problem
A large engineering consulting firm manages various client projects for residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal clients across New England. The firm was experiencing inefficiencies in managing its project data. Its project management teams were unhappy with the time and energy spent on data entry and manually creating regular status reports. They also desired a quicker, more efficient way to internally manage their tasks, deadlines, and assignments. Thus, the firm engaged Creative Business Labs to develop a custom project management system to enhance productivity and collaboration among internal and external project teams.
Our Solutions
Creative Business Labs began the engagement with the client by validating the business and technical requirements for the system by conducting user interviews and discussing the firm's needs. Creative Business Labs then prepared a story-board presentation (or screen mock-ups) to help the client visualize the system before it was built. The process helped the client further clearly define the critical needs for the system. The application was developed on a phase-by-phase basis so that the project management teams could immediately begin using the system for their most critical needs. With subsequent phases, additional features and enhancements were easily and seamlessly implemented to augment the system. With regular status reports, design reviews, and consistent contact with the client, we were able to incorporate new ideas and changes throughout the entirety of the project and meet the client's exact needs on time and within budget.
Our Results
Creative Business Labs created an intranet solution – a custom browser-based, database driven project management system to bring the client's entire project management team on a single platform. The comprehensive application allows the project management teams to:
- Manage projects in accordance with their project management styles,
- Manage tasks, deadlines, and assignments more efficiently,
- Track the progress of projects and quickly generate comprehensive status reports,
- Assign tasks to fellow team members and track tasks progress,
- Provide and receive updates on any given project,
- Manage client information, including billing information,
- Track issues that arise during projects, and more.
Linked to the firm's accounting system already in place, the system has eliminated many of the inefficiencies involved in coordinating the firm's project management activities. The custom system continues to play a critical role in ensuring high productivity and collaboration among the engineering firm's project management teams.


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How To Wind A Centre Pull Ball Of Yarn
I love luxury yarns as much as the next girl, that's assuming that the next girl has a stash so large that she could knit a sweater a day for the rest of her life and still have some going spare.
It's virtually impossible to pass up a skein of something truly lovely – the beautiful twist of the hank of fibres is just so touchable and squeezable and irresistible. The first thing that you're going to have to do with any new skein of yarn is to ball it up. And, now you've got an image of your kids, husband, best chum, puppy with their hands/feet/paws held out in front of them holding the yarn while you whizz around in circles making up a ball.
Now, this is all well and good but there is an easier way to ball up yarn, one that allows the knitter to knit from the centre of the ball rather then working from the outside of the ball in towards the centre. I like my yarn to work from the centre out – now before you give me that look that says I'm potty, let me explain. These balls seem to be more regular in shape, the carefully twisting of the yarn holds it together whilst you are using the yarn. A centre pull ball of yarn has a flat(ish) base, meaning the you can pop it next top you, on your lay or on the table, and draw the yarn from the centre, the ball wont go rolling around all over the place and get itself in a tangle. Neat huh?!
So, let me show you How To Wind a Centre Pull Ball Of Yarn…
Grab your supplies…
You don't need anything more fancy or high tech than a chunky needle – this is 10mm needle – and your skein of posh yarn.
Open out you skein of yarn and either place in a loop hung over a chair back or (if you have one) onto a yarn swift. Pick up one of the tails and create a slip knot a 8cm from the end of the yarn.
Slide the knot onto the centre of the needle and draw it up to tighten it securely – this will become your knitting end.
Use one hand to anchor the yarn tail at the knotted end of yarn in place and begin wrapping the yarn around the needle. Slide each loop down so that it sits neatly on top of the one before,keep on wrapping until there is between 8-10cm of snug yarn wraps.
With the knotted tail held securely, begin working the yarn around the foundation loops of yarn. Work the yarn around the wraps in figure of eights – taking the yarn from the top right-hand side across the front and down to the bottom left, over the front of the wrapped needle. Then bring to the lower right-hand side at the back of the needle and then up to the upper left-hand side then back to the starting position at the upper right-hand side to complete the figure of eight.
As with knitting you need to try to maintain an even tension – you don't want the yarn to be too loose so that the ball doesn't hold its shape, but at the same time you don't want to draw it so tight that delicate fibres get stretches or damaged.
Continue wrapping in the figure of eights, slowly rotating the knitting needle to distribute the yarn. You're getting into your groove now, am I right? And, it's starting to look like a ball of yarn! Now, might be a good time to grab a coffee and a little something sweet to eat – you're blood sugar might be dropping at this point. I'm not going to lie to you, balling up yarn by hand is never a speedy task, but trust me you'll soon get into a rhythm and it'll be finished up in no time…I promise!
Continue wrapping and twisting until the whole skein is wrapped neatly into a ball around the needle. Then all you need to do is slide the needle out from the centre of the ball, holding on to the knotted end, and your neatly balled up yarn will be ready to use – tah dah!
One of the best things about hand winding yarn is that you get to see all the lovely colours and tones, particularly if it is hand dyed, like knit one. And, because looking at this amazing yarn has probably got you wondering where you can get your knitty mits on it – this delicious yarn is Manos Silk Blend in Colouway 6460 Scorpio – and let me guess you've already been thinking about a lovely new sweater, a stylish shawl or even a cosy beanie in this scrummy yarn!
Now, go forth and knit with your centre pull yarn ball – you'll no longer be pulling a length to work with only to have to chase it around the room!


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One Bedroom Apartment in Los Narejos
Murcia Region Los Alcazares
Current Price: € 42000.00
Conversion Price: £ no va
Note: Exchange rates are for informational purposes only.
Ref#: SM1809
One bedroom upstairs apartment for sale in Los Narejos, Los Alcazares, Murcia. One bathroom, lounge/dining room with open plan kitchen and a spacious conservatory which provides extra dining and seating space. Private downstairs patio with a store room. The property has been redecorated throughout.
The property is located on a quiet street in walking distance of shops, bars and restaurants. The beach is a 20 minute walk or a short bike ride. The property has good access to the motorway and Corvera airport is a 30 minute drive, Alicante airport 55 minutes.
Los Alcazares sits on the edge of the Mar Menor - following is a short video which highlights some of the lovely sights in the area.


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Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'General Mac Discussion' started by burritos, Aug 22, 2003.
Yeah it is funny...
But it's also easy to find lotsa dirt on apple as well.
Especially in their marketing...
It's Akamai, and since I'm too lazy to even respond to this misinformation in the thread title (when MS was caching/load balancing a null address -- before being whacked by a DOS worm).
Of course the title -- MS Uses Akamai to Cache a Null Address -- wouldn't be too eye catching.
Would have been more interesting if the worm actually used the current windowsupdate address.
Edit -
I think the biggest news in that article is...
apple uses almost all linux servers, and only a few run OS X server.
Big difference is that Apple's CEO isn't going around dragging Linux and open source thru the mud like Microsoft's is. Jobs and Apple support open source, just look at Safari. Ballmer has made it his personal mission to discredit Linux at every opportunity, even offering the city of Munich a 90% discount to try to keep them from switching from Windows to Linux.
Well, Munich went for Linux anyway and now the sweaty one's own company is having to rely on it too to avoid DoS attacks. So much for Linux being "unfit for enterprise use" huh sweat boy...err...Ballmer? Pretty damn ironic and hilarious if you ask me...
ya it is funny, but what would M$ do, surrender and let their site go down, or use Akami for help?
I think they really didnt have much of a choice here.


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Heres my take of the current sketch over at Purple Pumpkin .
thanks for stopping by
Sunday, October 9, 2011
5 comments:
That looks awesome Belinda. Love the banners and your use of the blue spotty buttons.ReplyDelete
Great take on the sketch Belinda :) Love your colours.ReplyDelete
love the simplicity and the blue buttons..matches the theme..thanks for playing at PPReplyDelete
Wow!! Love this, Belinda! Totally fantastic take on the sketch - really unique layout - it is a real stunner!!! Thanks for playing along at PP! :DReplyDelete
I simply love what you have done here with the sketch, and the use of the blue and white is stunning, the buttons work so well too.ReplyDelete
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By Mike Haseler on February 23, 2012 at 6:27 am
The difference between denial and scepticism, is that sceptics don't want to kill global warming. If the evidence supports it, then fine, that's what the evidence shows.
The problem from the beginning has been that the evidence did not support the runaway global warming theory. It all relied on a bit of hypothetical feedback. The real science suggested around 1C for a doubling of CO2. In a sane world, we might be discussing whether 1C is a significant change and I might even agree that it is worth taking measures to reduce it.
But this is not a sane world. This is a world, where real science of 1C is fraudulently puffed up to as much as 6C warming and then called "proven science". And anyone who even questions whether the 83% of puffed up non-science has any evidence to support it, is hounded out of jobs, has vitriolic attacks and told in effect: "if you don't keep silent you will end up in camps".
But it is even worse than that. I would guess the eco-capitalist warmists scamsters spend some $500million a year promoting global warming. Much of that money comes from big oil companies who have invested a huge stake in wind energy. The rest is people trying to develop the "carbon market" and academic researchers who promote GW because it helps secure grants. … and governments who "educate" the poor deluded public into believing them.
The Heartland had around $5million. I struggle to think of any substantial organisation other than the Heartland. And yet who is it that is criticised as having the massively funded BIG-OIL backed PR campaign?
If you asked the average person in the street before climategate, most would suppose (from all the warmist propaganda) that it was the other way around. In other words, that the ratio of warmist propaganda to sceptic was 1:100. The truth is closer to 100:1.
And that means the reality to perceived reality is a ratio of 1:10,000
Tell a lie big enough, often enough and people will believe you. That was their tactic!
By Renewable Guy on February 24, 2012 at 10:36 pm
However you feel about the debate, AGW marches on. 6 different science papers coming to a general conclusion that humans have influenced the warming on earth.
So what is the proper strategy for scientists, against the PR machine of divisive disinformation machines like the Heartland Institute? Turn your face, and let them slap the other cheek? Will that convince everybody how trustworthy you are? I'm not convinced.
It is important to check the authenticity of that document .. but none of the arguments given here is even circumstantial proof that it was faked. If Gleick received it on paper, he'd have to scan it, obviously. Or if somebody that sent it to him wanted to remain anonymous .. is it strange if they sent him a scan, or a paper print-out? Nothing is inconsistent with his story. On the other hand, his only corroboration of the facts is from the other documents that Gleick received from HI by email. He himself says he found it convincing. But is that enough?
He should have probably published the whole lot himself, with an explanation how he came by the documents. And asking for further investigations.
By Robert Rapier on February 23, 2012 at 12:09 pm
It is important to check the authenticity of that document .. but none of the arguments given here is even circumstantial proof that it was faked.The list of arguments put forth by Megan McArdle is certainly circumstantial proof. What is missing in this whole debate is for the people who are defending Gleick to demand that he prove the document is authentic. Instead, they want HI to disprove it is authentic. How are they supposed to disprove a negative? No, the burden of proof here is on Gleick and his supporters.As I said, I expect he will eventually step forward and admit that he wrote it. I don't have an axe to grind here, and I didn't even know who he was, but from what I have seen it certainly looks like either he wrote it himself (Occam's Razor) or if you are more prone to conspiracy theories that someone elaborately set him up by making it look like he wrote it.RR
By Renewable Guy on February 24, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Heartland has everything to loose in this. They can't deny what they sent to Dr. Gleick through their own email. Having followed AGW debate for 6 years, the strategy paper is right in line with their behaviour. If heartland wants to go to court, it may force them to reveal more of themselves. Which is what they don't really want to do.. I look forward to what other dirty laundry can be exposed in this process. I don't see an admission coming form Dr. Gleick. He's already bared his soul on the matter. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see no charges brought by heartland because they are to vulnerable.
By Ed on February 25, 2012 at 3:06 pm
In a criminal proceeding regarding the crimes which Peter Gleick has acknowledged publicly and the potential additional crime involved in forging the "fake" document, the content of the real documents is not material. The facts that they are real and that they are privileged and that they were obtained fraudulently are material. The content of the "fake" document is material, to the extent that it can be demonstrated that the content includes factual errors which were introduced maliciously. However, the mere existence of the "fake" document is prima facie evidence of forgery. The challenge, in that case, is establishing the identity of the forger.Heartland would potentially be more exposed in civil proceedings, which it may or may not choose to pursue. It appears more likely that civil suits might be pursued by the members of the HI board of directors, HI employees and HI donors, who have already been exposed by Gleick's actions to date and may have been "damaged" as a result.I suspect that Peter Gleick, having already publicly acknowledged theft by fraud regarding the HI board documents might well merely plead guilty to whatever charges are brought against him regarding those documents, rather than face additional public ridicule and potential further damage to his career. It remains to be seen what will transpire regarding the "fake" document, since Gleick has so far denied committing the forgery. However, if the FBI determines that he is the forger, he might well seek a jury trial on that charge, since it would involve substantial additional potential penalties.
Of course, another hypothesis may be that the Strategy Document was available in paper format only to avoid uncontolled dissemination and scanned only as needed, eg for transmission to the claimed Board member.
I'm not saying that is the case but it also fits the facts as presented.
Climate Change deniers have yet to answer the central question: how can humans put back into the atmosphere over ~300 years all the carbon nature has spent >300 MILLION years locking away into the rocks WITHOUT perturbing our atmospheric system?
By Jeff on February 23, 2012 at 12:36 pm
"Climate Change deniers have yet to answer the central question: how can
humans put back into the atmosphere over ~300 years all the carbon
nature has spent >300 MILLION years locking away into the rocks
WITHOUT perturbing our atmospheric system?"
This reflects ignorance (either purposeful or unintentional) of the arguments made by climate skeptics
… a server at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the U.K. was hacked…
This has yet to be determined. The emails may well have been leaked by somebody inside the UEA
Last week an anonymous person leaked several documents from the Heartland Institute
The documents were not "leaked" they were obtained by social engineering which in this context is a form of hacking.
By Ed Reid on February 24, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Apparently the FBI has been asked to investigate.
I think the title of this post is just right, emphasis on "cause". Gleick's actions do nothing to change the evidence of whether global climate is changing due to human actions, but it certainly does do damage to the cause of those advocating for society to do something about it.
If we are to do something about global climate change, it has to be coordinated on a world-wide scale, and we've seen how hard that is already. And to have that massive coordination work, everyone must be on board, and trust that we are doing the right thing. Trust is huge, probably the most important aspect, because what advocates of this global coordination are doing is asking the general public to trust them. The general pubic has no way of determining the accuracy of scientific data, analysis, or results. Therefore, more so than the AGW skeptics, it is imperative that the scientific community act with the utmost integrity to gain trust of the general public.
Even though I would assume that the vast majority of scientists, on the order of 99.9999% do act with the utmost integrity, Gleick smeared them all with this stupid act. It's really just dumbfounding what he thought he would accomplish.
To implement such a huge, world-wide scale solution to global climate change first requires slow and steady, step-by-step building of a case that is irrefutable, and nearly in parallel, a slow and steady, step-by-step case that the proposed solution (e.g., carbon tax, cap and trade, etc.) would solve the problem. I think the recent tactics (not just Gleick, but others that feel they need to "take it to" the other side) employed by those advocating for action on climate change suggest they think they can short cut this process, as in, "If we just show that the other side is evil, everyone will jump on board!" And the result is a entrenchment of beliefs and no progress made convincing the general public that it is an imperative issue that needs solving immediately.
Hi Robert – It might be a simple/lazy request, but I trust you as a reasonable person. Can you quickly list the truthful scientific evidence both sides use to present their case. It's hard to sometimes sift through the evidence that is useful and that which made up or exaggerated. Thanks for any help.
By Robert Rapier on February 23, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Can you quickly list the truthful scientific evidence both sides use to present their case. It's hard to sometimes sift through the evidence that is useful and that which made up or exaggerated.Ah, if it were only that simple. There are a couple of reasons that I don't wage war on either side of this debate. One is that the issue is so personal and nasty, but the other is that this issue is complex. If it were not, there would be no room for controversy.I lay out a number of things in the book; both the science behind global warming as well as the arguments skeptics make. I showed the chapter to a friend of mine who is an advocate of addressing climate change, and he said "But those skeptic arguments aren't valid!" And I said "That's not my point. Whether valid or not, these are the arguments that are made. My purpose in this chapter was not to support or debunk the arguments, but rather to explain them."In a nutshell (and I emphasize that it is much more complex than this), on one side we understand the greenhouse effect and why rising carbon dioxide levels should cause a warming trend. Many studies have been published that corroborate this trend (and many have disputed the studies).On the other side, people argue that because carbon dioxide is responsible for a very small part of the greenhouse effect relative to water vapor, it can't possibly make that much impact. Or, that this is all based on modeling, and many of the models have not accurately predicted climatic changes thus far.But if you really want to understand the arguments in detail, be prepared for a lot of reading. I have read quite a bit, and still feel like I have only scratched the surface.RR
Very nice post. The underlying problem is that a very small number of political activists have got into climate science and have become high-profile simply by shouting loudly (I won't mention names). This has backfired for them spectacularly badly, leading to a surge in skepticism about the whole field. What I don't understand is why the 99+% of good climate scientists don't speak out and dump these people before they can do such damage.
I'm a believer and a skeptic. Global Warming is a fact, but I'm skeptical that it's a bad thing. There's ample scientific evidence that widespread rice farming in Asia, combined with deforestation in Europe, contributed to the end of the Little Ice Age(1250-1850). There's every reason to believe that had the Little Ice Age run its course, we would have slipped into another glacial period, with ice sheets covering much of the Northern Hemisphere by now. The Holocene, or The Age of Man, is an interglacial period that's a bit long in the tooth. When it does end, the earth will only support a small fraction of the current population. It's a doomsday scenario that can only be topped by Armageddon. Thankfully, scientists agree that it won't happen as long as we're pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. If we scrubbed all the CO2 from the air that we put there in the last 200 years, crop harvests would decline by 30% or more. Try feeding the earth under those conditions. So yeah, I believe global warming is real….and thank God for it.
The climate is definitely warming and it has really taken off in the last 30 years. Over the same time period, human carbon emissions have also greatly increased as have atmospheric levels of CO2. It is not possible to explain the warming of the last 30 years with any known natural causes. It is only possible to explain the global temperature rise of the last 30 years by including the warming that should be caused by adding greenhouse gases such as CO2 and to a lesser extent methane and other gases that humans are putting into the atmosphere.
Most agree that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will cause a temperature increase. What is less certain is climate sensitivity. A doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere without any feedback should cause a 1C temperature increase. That increase in temperature will cause feedback in the climate, but how much feedback is not agreed upon. One simple feedback mechanism is the albedo effect. Snow and ice reflect most visible light back into space because they are white. Once snow and ice melts and are then dark ocean or land, most of the heat from the sun is absorbed by the earth. That should lead to additional warming. Another feedback mechanism is that CO2 has retrograde solubility so the warmer the oceans and other bodies of water are the less CO2 they can hold in solution. As oceans warm they will become saturated with CO2 and then start to expel CO2 into the atmosphere which could lead to further warming. There are other feedback mechanisms. This is where most of the real scientific debate lies – in the various types of feedback that might occur. Some see a doubling of CO2 leading to 1C of warming while others think it will lead to 3 or 4C warming.
I'm sure you are already aware that the Linde Group purchased Choren, since your company was once invested in Choren. Off topic. This text did not copy into the prior e-mail.for some reason.
By Robert Rapier on February 23, 2012 at 4:06 pm
I'm sure you are already aware that the Linde Group purchased Choren, since your company was once invested in Choren.Yes, I knew. I think they can make a reasonable go of it. As I said before, the technology kinks would ultimately be worked out; the only question was of money and timing. This sale gives them more of both.RR
Nice post by RR, a rare voice of sanity in all things energy and even climate science.
For some reason, the Peak Oilers and the Climateers (pro or con) seem to have their identities vested in the arguments.
This happens in economics too. Some people rant about a "gold standard" with a religious fervor.
In the real world, the picture is often muddy. Oil prices may go up—-but supplies may be adequate for generations. Not a catastrophe, but not great either.
The earth was warmer 1000 years ago. That fact sticks in my craw before I get too worked up, either way.
Indeed, Ice Ages have been the norm for the last 400,000 years. That is an interesting scenario.
Allow me to make a prediction.Sometime in the far far distant future after many ice ages and warm periods the sun will expand. That will be global warming I CAN believe in.Until then the small amount of extra CO2 (plant food) will benefit mankind.Of course this will cause much angst amongst the faithful followers of the AGW religion because the massive human die-off will not occur to satiat their doomer fantasies.
Unsurprising, all of this. Ideology has a way of fogging the lens. Sitting in nearly 70 dgree weather at Princeton U., today, I'm more inclined to find weather lovely than as any omen of a global meltdown. Ah, but I'm reminded of an observation attributable to the late Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) who was keen on citing that the average temperature in Buffalo, NY is 58 degrees, yet, he stood by the logic of owning a heavy wool coat! Yes, averaging over time does have a way of putting things into perspective.
It's a bias against calculating the implications of the whole cycle that invites a thumb on the scale of objectivity. I think we instinctively subscribe to the logic (and merit) of why the Statue of Justice wears a bindfold. One would hope that those advocating with understandable passion their opinions about global warming, will take into account that new evidence is still being collected even as the jury has yet to hear the full case. As difficult as it is for the well-intentioned defenders of Mother Earth to keep an open mind, the integrity metric involved here is much too important to otherwise invite expedience by those who would rather win than get it right.
Glad we have folks like RR and our blog readers to say "not so quick!"
The reason no one will dwell on his actions is because they are not a headline chasing journalists who write what they are thinking.
Further they would be sympathetic because they know the pressure big oil has placed on them and how it is designed to break down and grind the scientists into silence and insanity.
And you are only helping them!
By armchair261 on February 24, 2012 at 6:58 pm
"…. the pressure big oil has placed on them…"
I would hardly conclude that the Kochs speak for Big Oil. Koch is one oil company out of thousands. GM has donated to Heartland. Shall we also conclude that Porsche, Tesla, and Mazda are fighting climate change science too?
I don't doubt that some companies in the oil industry have contributed to Heartland, but I'm just as certain that many don't, and that some who did no longer do. Heartland's own 2012 fundraising document doesn't read like a roll call of oil companies. There are lots of industries and individuals.
Oil; has never filed a false report or tried to influence a journalist or bribed a foreign official or lobbied in Congress.
Glad to hear that….. (laughter in background)
The BP oil spill in the Gulf was not really caused by the oil company ?,
Perhaps, it was actually caused by the solar industry (ha, ha, ha), because some of the monitoring equipment for the well was run by solar cells that failed.
Spin. spin, spin……and spin.again………….
I believe that much of the confused argument on this subject results from sloppy thinking.The broad subject includes at least three distinct issues: GW; AGW; and CAGW. The conflation of these issues often causes the parties to argue past each other, producing far more heat than light. In addition, I believe the argument would benefit both from asserting what we KNOW with confidence and explaining what we THINK we know with a degree of humility.We KNOW, from the historical and paleoclimatic records that the climate has changed in the past, going through periods of both global warming and global cooling.Many THINK that human activity has played a role in the current global warming phase. That would make this global warming excursion different from all previous global warming excursions, if for no other reason because of the anthropogenic influence.Some THINK, based on the outputs of a number of climate models, that a continuation and/or increase in anthropogenic GHGs will result in a catastrophic increase in global average temperature.Interestingly, there appears to be no agreement within the scientific community regarding the percentage reduction in global annual GHG emissions which would be required to stabilize the climate, or the maximum tolerable atmospheric concentration of the various GHGs. Therefore, in the absence of both a goal and a plan to achieve that goal, we are left with a "wish". We KNOW that the DATA used to establish the FACT of the current GW is flawed, both by virtue of the questionable quality of the instrument installations and the gaps in the measurement grid. These flaws require that the DATA be adjusted, homogenized, infilled, etc. to create what is referred to as the temperature record. However, as the result of these manipulations, the DATA become unDATA.We also KNOW that the GCMs are flawed, because the numerous models produce differing projections of the future climate; and, because they have demonstrated limited and variable skill, both in reconstructing the instrumented past and in projecting the now-historical future since their development.It is little wonder, then, that many are skeptical; and, that they are resistant to making multi-trillion dollar investments to completely revise the global energy economy based essentially on data that aren't and models that don't.
Another great post.
RR Said:
"If this was the way science worked, we would still all believe that ulcers were caused by stress."
A little off topic but there was and still is a strong statistical correlation between stress and ulcers. That is why stress was assumed to cause them. But the hard part of statistical correlations is teasing out cause and effect.Turns out that stress facilitates the development of ulcers because it weakens the immune system of the stomach, allowing the bacteria to get a foot hold. From Wikipedia:
"80 percent of individuals infected with the bacterium are asymptomatic and it has been postulated that it may play an important role in the natural stomach ecology."
I once developed a stomach ulcer after working long hours (occasionally all night) for two years to get the engineering done for the 777 airliner. The lack of sleep caused headaches, remedied by washing acacetylsalicylic acid (aspirin) down with lots of coffee. I also required a root canal and the removal of a basil cell carcinoma at the end of those two years. Lesson learned; the human body has its limits and extreme chronic stress weakens the immune system. This same correlation is thought to explain why people low on their societal totem pole have more health problems (see The Status Syndrome).
IMHO, a thinking person should roll their eyes at the foibles of any one
individual, regardless of which side of the fence that individual comes
McArdle paraphrase:
"Oh, how horrible, this is so far beyond the pale that I cannot imagine how this ever could have happened!"
There is no way to control the behavior of billions of people, especially in the age of the internet. Every cause (left and right wing) runs a gauntlet. There will always be individuals who have the potential to do any given cause harm.
Everything is a matter of degree. When a cause has significant numbers of individuals, including high-profile individuals, or even entire organizations, disseminating misinformation, you have an entirely different situation.
That is a sign of a cause that is getting desperate from a lack of viable evidence or inversely, from increasing evidence against it, or simply the sign that a cause never had much evidence to support it, period.
We can all think of examples of such causes, not that rational thought or evidence has much impact (statistically speaking) on what we humans choose to believe.
My biggest problem with this is Gleick leaves himself open to so much.
What he has said is belowhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/-the-origin-of-the-heartl_b_1289669.html
I could focus on his admission of guilt but the worst part
is quoted
I will not comment on the substance or implications
of the materials; others have and are doing so… (Glecik, 2012)
He is a scientist who is not willing to defend his own data?
Come on, that is a cop out.
Science is a field that demands such activity and is instilled from an early
stage of one's professional career. It is ingrained in getting a Masters or
PhD. Lack of rigorous data analysis is how we ended up with Jan Hendrik Schön.
Since Gleick has decided to excuse himself from the debate and since he is key
to this data, how can we rigorously analyse it?
A well-written opinion on the Gleick affair. As a rational, educated person I cannot bring myself to believe that .04% of the atmosphere is responsible for ambient temperatures. I also am not frightened of a measly 2-5°F change in temperature over the course of decades when I experience a minimum of 75°F in temperature change at my home over the course of a single year. I remain sceptical in light of these indisputable facts. Only one side of this debate is demanding drastic changes to the lives of every single human being. Unless and/or until that side presents indisputable evidence of its theory's absolute affirmation I will always be sceptical. Learning that the AGU's expert on scientific ethics committed fraud, forgery and other crimes is simply amusing confirmation that noble cause corruption is alive and well in science. Anyone who places absolute, unquestioning faith in scientists has never heard of the US Eugenics movement, which was based upon and heartily supported by every major science group and university in the country. Don't believe it? Look it up, beginning with Carnegie and Harvard. Having blind faith in science is dangerous.
By mbaylor on February 27, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Apologies for the lack of formatting. I wasn't aware that this platform requires double enters to make a new paragraph.
By Robert Rapier on February 27, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Apologies for the lack of formatting. I wasn't aware that this platform requires double enters to make a new paragraph.We just updated the software a week ago, and are still working out the bugs.RR
The AGW debate itself is a red herring being deployed successfully. The only strategy that BAU requires to maintain its privilege is delay. If there is any possibility that mankind is dangerously altering the biosphere, then behavior should be altered; if only as an experiment.
Just pointing out that there is a more recent Pew center survey + analysis. It conveys mostly the same message as 2009, though the last two years have seen a slight reversal.


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(Photographed by : Shah Bloober. Vintage Pink Rose Band, Vintage Peach Top, Accessorize Ribbon necklace, White lace shorts, Marc by Marc Jacobs Gold Watch, Forever 21 Pink Rose ring, Femmex Bag in Taupe, Jeffrey Campbell Lita in Taupe Suede, TOpshop Socks)
The shots are taken last month through help of my friend Aishah when we went to Botanic Gardens. It was a hot evening day with many people taking photos inside the beautiful pavilion. The inspirations to this outfit come from my favorite color of the moment : PEACH! It is a very soft, feminine color and very girly, easy to combine with anything and I just love anything with laces especially white laces that I saw lots of times among bloggers outfits. I sort of made this look appear to be minimal and simple with touch of gold from my new watch of Marc by Marc Jacobs and of course not to forget, the gorgeous Lita of Jeffrey Campbell.


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If an alien landed on earth this morning, he'd be forgiven if he thought Steve Jobs was Prometheus, Jesus and Henry Ford all rolled up into one, that all the wails and lamentations, the celebrations and tributes, marked the passing of the world's greatest mind.
Usually, this sort of hagiography is reserved for the dead -- or for the presidential candidate who shares our party affiliation -- during mourning periods in which churlish people like myself usually have to shut up and not say, "Yes, but ..." (with the exception of Christopher Hitchens). But Jobs isn't dead; he's simply resigned as CEO of Apple. So allow me to point out that the man is no fallen angel -- hell, when it comes to charitable use of his amassed wealth, he's not even a fallen Bill Gates -- and he isn't a perfect businessman.
He's made mistakes. And it's because we supposedly learn more from mistakes than successes -- and not because I'm a contrarian crank -- that I offer up a handful of them.
1. Lisa
The Lisa made the Edsel look like the Lexus rollout. A $10,000 computer. In the early '80s. Twenty-first-century trendsetters might be willing to pay top dollar for snazzy computers with locked-down, proprietary software, but business owners in the Reagan era were having none of it. To be completely fair, Jobs might not have been personally responsible for this stinker. But he was head of the Lisa/McIntosh division at the time, so, you know, own it big guy. Indeed, according to a 2006 article from OS Magazine, his mismanagement of this division in the mid-1980s is what lead to his original ouster from the company.
2. "Lemmings"
Oh, sure, Jobs has had his hand in culture-shaping advertising. Apple's "1984" spot is often held up as the best Super Bowl ad of all time (by ad-industry people, not by regular consumers). But everyone seems to forget that the very next year Jobs' Macintosh division was responsible for perhaps the worst Super Bowl ad of all time. Called "Lemmings," it featured people blindfolded and marching off a cliff. Whereas "1984" showed non-Apple consumers as oppressed by an authoritarian system, "Lemmings" showed non-Apple consumers as a bunch of rodents, too stupid to see that they were committing suicide -- which may be how Jobs (perhaps) and Apple users (definitely) see non-Apple consumers.
3. The Tin Ear
This incident can be best summed up by Jobs' reaction to the news that the iPhone 4 didn't work so well as a phone when held in the left hand. "Quit being left-handed, ya big dummy, and here's a rubber bumper. Steve Jobs don't care. Steve Jobs don't give a shit." (I'm paraphrasing a bit.) And while this might seem a one-off, Apple's customer service isn't all it's cracked up to be. Sure, Apple stores are totally awesome and the Genius Bar is the nerd equivalent of table service at a nightclub. But what happens if you don't live anywhere near one? What happens when your precious Apple product breaks. (Yes, they break.) You have to call customer support, where you'll be quickly reminded that you'll be getting no service boy-o, because you didn't spring for Apple Care. Maybe you figured you were paying twice what you'd pay for a similar sized PC and such service would be included in the price, or perhaps Apple Care sounded exactly like those extended warranty offers that electronics retailers try to shove down your throat -- and your Mama didn't raise a fool. Either way, NO TECH SUPPORT FOR YOU!
4. The Great White Wall
Whether you're an iTunes user, an iPhone app developer or an iPad publisher, it's Steve's world and you just play in it. His roof, his rules. His way or the highway. To be honest, I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. I'm only including this to appease the sort of people who say things like "information wants to be free" with a straight face or believe that politicians have any interest in transparency. You know, a certain sort of New Yorker who grouses loudly about Michael Bloomberg's police state, but who voted him in for a barely legal third term because of the economy and would never have considered moving to New York before that goon Giuliani cleaned up the streets. Of course, the difference between New York and Apple-land is that the latter has never claimed to be a democracy and never will -- and it never should be one. Information doesn't want to be free and consumers -- even goofy ones who claim to believe such a thing -- will pay through the nose for an environment policed by a slightly priggish god who keeps out the virus carriers, spam slingers and porn purveyors. In a way, Steve Jobs has become the very face of the Big Brother smashed in the "1984" ad, but I say keep up the good work, Steve.
5. The Flash Foolishness
The problem with benevolent dictators with tin ears is they get into ego battles that can have an adverse affect on consumers. Whatever the true, secret basis for the pissing match between Jobs and Adobe (and conspiracy theories abound), his public explanation for why he'd rather not have Flash within the walls of his precious garden was downright laughable. Steve Jobs complaining about a proprietary system that isn't open? Really, Steve Jobs. Really?! But seriously, while Jobs had some semi-decent technical reasons for banishing Flash, his biggest one boiled down to the fact that Apple was building a platform for the future and Flash was the thing of the past. But that overlooked one crucial piece of the puzzle: the consumer, who lives in the present and, while would love to view everything in the future on Apple-approved viewers, can't watch things NOW because it's all on Flash!
6. Apple Fanboys and Fangirls
I know. This isn't Steve Jobs' fault. Then again, he doesn't do much to not act like a cult leader, what with the black turtlenecks and the general sense of secrecy and isolation broken by the occasional come-down-from-the-mountain presentations to the masses. Whatever the case, those people give the rest of us -- even those of us who use Apple products -- headaches and hives. No coincidence that in those Mac vs. PC ads, the PC came off as the one you'd actually want to hang out with and the Mac as someone you'd like to give a wedgie and kick off your lawn. Steve, now that you've got some extra time on your hands, maybe you can do something about them.
Well, that's my exhaustive list. If you have others, feel free to add in the comments. I'm sure Steve Jobs has done other unsaintly things -- maybe he speeds or teases kittens. But I haven't heard about them. I hear he doesn't have much truck with social media and he obviously likes to spend large sums of money on TV ads, billboards and print, but those are pluses in my book. And the man delivers something I wish more companies delivered -- a product that works as advertised.
Steve Jobs, you can stand on my lawn any time you want. But if Bill Gates comes over, you have to play nice.


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The countdown begins! This coming week is my last week of school. I am working like crazy to get things done. Somewhere in between saying goodbye to my students and slipping into summer relaxation mode, I have a twinge of panic in my stomach. I always give my little speech about making sure to read over the summer. I give out summer packs that I think usually end up collecting dust. I just pray that parents visit the library or put aside some reading time over the summer to prevent that summer slide. Unfortunately, the kids who need to read the most over the summer are usually the ones that want to avoid it. It makes sense. They still aren't quite proficient so it is hard work. It can feel laborious and they just want to be playing out in the sun with their friends. I totally get it. No judgement here. But then fall rolls around and I do assessments and my heart sinks when I realize that several kids have slid backwards. Our most struggling readers need to practice. So how do we convince them to read? Well, bribe them of course. Ha! Okay maybe bribe is a little strong. We motivate them. Is that better? ;) I made this last year to go with my summer reading pack.
I included this with my summer toolkit that blogged about last year.
One thing I'm adding this year are a few incentive cards. Once kids fill up their reading chart, they can choose a card. There are 12 cards in all.
Click on the picture to download your freebie.
If you are also looking for printable packs, check out these: (Click on the pictures)


text: Breanna Chapman Refers to MedicAlert as her Guardian Angel Medical Conditions As an infant, Breanna Chapman experienced her first ambulance ride due to extreme sleep apnea. This would be the first of several hospital visits, where she would be transported by ambulances due to her life-threatening asthma as well. "She has extremely sensitive and twitchy reactive airways which has limited her activities but never her spirit!" said mom, Jill. At one point, having this severe asthma caused Breanna to become steroid dependent; triggering hypertension and making it vital for her to take blood pressure medication several times a day. Read more about Breanna Chapman Refers to MedicAlert as her Guardian Angel