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OK, I am so sick to death (no pun intended) of all the arguments back and forth, and more and more what I see as the "bottom line" is that nobody knows what the right solution is. Its a global issue for sure, but from a USA perspective, ObamaCare is hated. Whatever was being done is Greece wasn't working: the whole contry went broke. Other EU countries are making big cuts to their systems to remain solvent. But what's the right idea?
This forum is full of a wide selection of very intelligent and informed people (in my experience and opinion), so my proposal is: What would YOU do?
Here's my thought:
From my USA background: Turn the states loose, pull the Fed out of every aspect of Health Care for a period of 5 years. Let each state set up their own system. That's 50 experimental techniques running at the same time toward a solution, more if you count territories. Some states are headed by Republican leadership, some by Democratic. Some states have large budgets, some small. Some have large populations, some small. The point is there would be a huge selection of variables that the proposed plans could be compared against.
In 5 years, evaluate each program:
Which are fiscally broke, break even, or even profitable?
Did big budget techniques work better than small, or was there a true cost-effective technique?
Which had the greatest citizen satisfaction? Immigration and emigration across state lines is usually the best measure of this.
Is there a regional effect? Its a big country: somehow I doubt the same solution that works in Florida is going to work in Arizona is going to work in North Dakota.
Then, just trim the crap: tell those states that made a program that lost money, that the citizens hated, that worked but cost too much; that their program sucks and make them choose between those that worked.
This is a hot topic, but so is Anthropomorphic Global Warming, and the thread on that maintained a mostly civil atmosphere and came to a clear and supported conclusion after a while.
Be careful what you wish for! here in Canada the Provincial gts have a fair bit of control over heath care and most of the funding comes from the Cdn gvt. If you where to be diagnosed with cancer, your best chance for servival would be if you live in British Columbia. Here in Manitoba if you require an mri it will take up to 5 months for an appointment. I know, I'm waiting, it really sucks I havn't worked since an auto accident on July 28. Tom
" I don't know what I don't know until I know"
1994 GMC 6.5 Tubo 2005 Dodge ram 3500, 3 VW's 2000, 2002, 2005.
Tom is correct, the quality of health care can vary from province to province. Canada sets national standards, it's up to the provinces to determine how those standards are met. Those who want to can buy additional private health insurance for quicker service in private clinics. From my experience the worst health care in Canada is better than most health care in America for the average person who is not affluent.
-In some provences, but not here in Manitoba we have a ban on private for profit clinics,health care is touted as universal, but more universal in some provences. thats the problem I see in allowing each state to invent it's own healthcare system. IMO our system could be greatly improved if the federal govt who sets the standards where responsible for the health care delivery. Tom
" I don't know what I don't know until I know"
1994 GMC 6.5 Tubo 2005 Dodge ram 3500, 3 VW's 2000, 2002, 2005.
The private clinics don't have to be in Canada for the extra insurance to cover it. It depends on the policy. I've never had the need since my Cdn health care has always been more than adequate. I'm required to carry Workers Comp. insurance which moves me to the head of the line if I get injured on the job, and since I'm self employed it covers almost all injuries. Judging by how the federal govt. manages to really screw up anything they get their nose into, I prefer provincially delivered health care.
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As a member of the Purex Insiders Purex has allowed me to test out and share with my readers the new detergent they have created! I love new stuff and this is such a neat concept for laundry detergent they have created.
I received free product in exchange for an honest review. All opinions and views are my own.


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Funky Kidz features a collection of nostalgic favorites with yummy Crescent City flavor that's all perfectly suited to children. Songs like You've Got a Friend in Me, Hokey Pokey, Yellow Submarine, and my personal theme, If I Only Had a Brain. I guarantee you'll know 80% of the songs on there by heart (listen for yourself), but you've never heard them like this before. That is, unless you grew up in New Orleans with extremely talented parents.
How did this brilliant mash-up come about? It's not super surprising when you consider the backstory. Exec producer and mother of two Lauren Busch Singer is the brainchild behind this beauty, and frankly, anyone who thanks Popeye's Chicken in the credits section is A-okay with me. She managed to bring together NOLA artists like Big Sam's Funky Nation, Papa Grows Funk, Bonerama, Ivan Neville and George Porter Jr. who bring such authenticity to the tracks, you can practically smell the beignets and chicory coffee.
A portion of the proceeds go to fostering music education for New Orleans children. So if you heart NOLA and you heart music, you should check this bad boy out. I'm certainly glad I did, because oh how I want to be in that number. –Laura


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Sunnyville Stories Volume 4 Kickstarter (Comics)
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Our goal is to raise at least US$2,500 before 12pm Noon Central time on Sunday Feb. 11, 2018. Please pledge today and tell everyone you can about this comics Kicsktarter!
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects...ries-volume-4/Sunnyville Stories, an independent comics series about two teens, Rusty and Sam, in a small town! Read it today!


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Thursday, October 14, 2010
Changes to the ELC System
Currently, situations can arise where the team would ideally like a player to be in the NHL, but decides to keep them out for contractual reasons. I'm assuming that the player would also rather be in the NHL at 18 or 19, instead of sent back to junior because of the current ELC system. By changing the ELC system for 18 and 19 year old players, both the player and the team can be helped. Eliminating the "slide rule", and altering the ELC system such that an 18 year old player receives a 5 year ELC, and a 19 year old player receives a 4 year ELC would remove the incentive teams have to send an "NHL ready" player back to junior to massage the contract situation.
In negotiations, it is often important to consider the transaction from the perspective of the opposing party. It's easy to see why the owners might like to control top rookies for a little bit longer, but the reason this could be a slam dunk is that it is (arguably) in the interests of the majority of players as well. When you want something, and realize the other party is either largely indifferent to, or mildly in favour of, that point of negotiation, often you can find a way to get the issue resolved at a lower cost to yourself than you might have initially thought. It is true that this change would be a further restriction on the earning potential of top end players early in their careers, but I believe the NHLPA would probably accept such a restriction; they've had no problem sacrificing the earning power of young players in the past. In fact, they've thrown rookies under the bus twice in the past 20 years: by allowing a rookie cap to be implemented, and allowing for further rookie restrictions in the most recent CBA. I would be surprised if many union members were particularly concerned with helping the few 18 and 19 year old players reach RFA status one or two years earlier than they would by sticking with the current system, if it were something the owners requested. After all, every dollar the rookies are denied is a dollar for everyone else, due to linkage.
For that matter, I don't think the owners would have much of a problem convincing the players to remove the "7 years service" requirement for UFA status, which would change the UFA requirements to be a flat age 27 for all players. For a large majority of union members, the 7 year clause has no relevance so there's no reason for them to get too concerned about keeping it for the small number of players that benefit from the "7 years service" rule.
So, if I'm the owners heading into the next CBA negotiation, I don't think I would have overly strong opposition if I were to ask for those changes to the ELC system, and that minor change to UFA qualifications.
Thursday, October 07, 2010
Western Conference Projections
- Vancouver Canucks* - Art Ross winner, very deep group of defencemen, one of the best goalies in the league. A nice combination, in (at least arguably) the weakest division would seem to be a recipe for a great regular season.
- San Jose Sharks* - I suppose it's possible the Kings could pass them, but I need to see it before I'm confident enough to put them ahead of a regular season juggernaut like the Sharks.
- Detroit Red Wings* - Everyone's rested and healthy, Hudler's back to add some depth. I wouldn't count on another couple of 70 point seasons from Datsyuk and Zetterberg. The question is Howard, in my mind.
- Chicago Blackhawks – They've lost some depth, but the young core should still be improving.
- Los Angeles Kings – I look at the Kings as a pretty good bet to make the playoffs, but they've got a bunch of young players so they could take a leap forward or a slight step back. So I'll split the difference and project them as the 5th team in the West
- Nashville Predators – this team is consistently underrated by many, myself included. But they've got good goaltending, a good D core, and a solid if not spectacular forward core. Looks like a playoff team, or failing that a team that's close.
- Calgary Flames - I'm not nearly as pessimistic about this team as most. I don't think they'll challenge Vancouver, but I'd be surprised if they fall down the standings like some, barring injuries to Iginla, Bouwmeester and/or Kiprusoff. Then again, maybe I should be given the current injury problems?
- Anaheim Ducks – The defence might be a bit weak, but they've got a good goalie and pretty decent forwards. PP of Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, Selanne, and Visnovsky should be very good. Can that carry a team through the regular season?
- Phoenix Coyotes – I need to see it again before I believe it, as far being a slam dunk for the playoffs. Their goaltending might regress a little, and with LA coming on, we'll see.
- St. Louis Blues – Halak seems like he might be an upgrade, but a look at last year's stats suggests this team already had pretty good goaltending, so I'm not sure they'll get quite the boost some might think, even if Halak is a 0.920 sv% goalie, unless the rest of the roster performs better.
- Colorado Avalanche – Like many, I expect this team to step back a little bit, but I don't expect them to slip all the way back to the lottery.
- Minnesota Wild – Not too much to say, but they don't look quite as raw as the three teams remaining, and would appear to have better goaltending provided BAckstrom stays healthy.
- Dallas Stars – None of the three remaining teams have very good defences, on paper. Dal probably has the best forwards.
- Edmonton Oilers – I had a difficult time deciding between Edmonton and Columbus. Ultimately, my tiebreaker is that I project the NW to be an easier division. They could shoot quite a bit higher if a couple of the rookies are better than I'm expecting.
- Columbus Blue Jackets – I don't really like having them this low, because I think they've certainly got the potential to be better than last. But, someone has to be. I'm not sure what to expect out of Mason.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Eastern Conference Projections
- Washington Capitals* - I don't think they'll be quite as dominant this season as last, but still good enough to win the Eastern conference.
- New Jersey Devils* -Superior depth should help them edge out the Penguins, who I think will be second in this division. I'm not sure that, on paper, the Capitals are better than the Devils, but the Devils have a more difficult looking schedule so I'll give the regular season edge to Washington.
- Boston Bruins* - I see the NE as being a relatively tight division, but I like the Bruins depth at forward, provided Savard returns at some point.
- Pittsburgh Penguins – It'll be interesting to see what kind of numbers Comrie and Kunitz are able to post this season. Maybe it's not surprising given the importance of goaltending, but to win the division I think they'll need a great year out of Fleury.
- Buffalo Sabres - somehow I ended up with both Pominville and Vanek in my draft, so consider this pick a reach if you will. I don't think Miller projects to be as good as last season, but I also expect more (perhaps erroneously) out of some of BUF's forwards
- Ottawa Senators –incredible PP potential in Ottawa this season, with the addition of Gonchar and the potential maturation of Erik Karlsson, along with Spezza, Alfredsson, and the mercurial Kovalev. I would rank them ahead of Buffalo were it not for the difference in projected quality of goaltending.
- Philadelphia Flyers – The goaltending is a bit of a concern, but I suppose it's not impossible that they make a trade relatively early if the goaltending is a problem.
- Tampa Bay Lightning – I don't know that I see them as a markedly better team than those in this tier, but I like what Yzerman's done so I'll project them as the last playoff team. Kind of surprised Pouliot didn't crack the team.
- Montreal Canadiens – Price will be one to watch this year. I'm also curious to see Eller and Subban, MON might be a fun team to watch this season.
- New York Rangers – If Gaborik's groin acts up, this team could fall pretty sharply.
- Carolina Hurricanes – Not much to say with this team, hopefully for Carolina guys like Skinner and Boychuk can step up because the forward depth isn't looking all that great past Staal and maybe Jussi Jokinen.
- Toronto Maple Leafs – How many games will Kadri play this season? I'll go with 48.
- Atlanta Thrashers – Not really sure who's going to score the goals for this team.
- New York Islanders – At least another year until this team pushes for the playoffs, especially with Streit and Okposo out for awhile. I think it's "flip a coin" territory between NYI and FLA for last in the East, I went with FLA because I'm not sure what team looks like if/once Vokoun is traded, and I think that trade comes as soon as Tallon gets what he think is a decent offer.
- Florida Panthers – I think this team could surprise depending on Vokoun, but I also think if Vokoun is keeping them from falling right into the basement, Tallon may try to move him earlier than the deadline to ensure FLA finishes with a top 3 pick again this season.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
What to do with Paajarvi and Hall?
Over the past couple days, there have been numerous articles discussing the potential demotions of Hall to the OHL, and Paajarvi to the AHL, in an effort to maximize the value of their ELC's. It's fair to say that, in general, I tend to be a believer that 18 and 19 year old players should be demoted barring the situation where they can be a true contributor to a team. That said, it's not hard to see why this is potentially a pretty complicated issue for a GM; there are many angles to consider: Is the player's development likely to be better, or worse, at the NHL level when compared to the alternative? Can the player still learn more at a lower level while retaining the ELC year? What is the current quality of the team? Can the player help improve a team? Is it in the team's best interest to start this player now, or one (or two) years later? Does the team risk damaging its relationship with the player if they demote a "clearly ready" player? Is that risk worth delaying the contract? Do you need the player around to sell tickets?
I don't know the answer to all these questions, though I have my opinions. I think if the Oilers had handled this a bit differently over the summer, they would be in a better position to frame a potential demotion. They never really came out and said something like "We're happy to keep Hall and Paajarvi at the NHL level provided they can be positive, two-way contributors to our line-up. If they aren't ready to play 16-18 minutes a night, we don't think it will hurt Hall to go back to Windsor for a year and shift to C, or hurt Paajarvi to play in Sweden or the AHL for another year to improve the weaker areas of his game." On the other hand, were they able to retain/sell 1,500-2,000 season tickets, by pushing the hype, the rebuild, and the "new direction", that they wouldn't have been able to otherwise sell? If so, at $100 a seat, you're looking at something like $6 – 8 million they'd have been without, PLUS they then have to try to generate new season ticket holders, which most people would agree is harder to do than retaining the ones you already have. It's easy to see the hockey argument for sending these players out, but teams aren't necessarily run with hockey matters as the only consideration.
I think the argument that you might get a more team-friendly deal with a player that starts in the NHL at 18, instead of at 20, is with, at least some, merit. It's true that the agent might advise the player not to sign a long term deal, but for a lot of people there's value in certainty. If Taylor Hall starts this year and posts 40, 50 and 60 point seasons on his ELC, ending at age 20, he could conceivably have hit very few of his performance bonuses, let's say 800 K-1.3 mil. That would put the player at $3.5-4 mil in salary earned over 3 seasons. Sure, it's a lot of money, but a player would have to be pretty confident in his future ability to turn down roughly $25 mil in a 6 year deal. What if he stagnates, or regresses? What about injury risk? Is it that hard to imagine a player willing to trade some future earning potential for the certainty of $25,000,000 now? If he continues progressing and becomes a superstar, he'll be a UFA again at 28 and can make his mint at that time. Yes, it's speculation. No, we don't know what sort of long term deal Gagner would have been willing to sign this summer. Would he have been willing to sign the sort of long-term deal Tyler had proposed earlier this summer? I don't know, but I have to think it's more likely he would than if he had started in the NHL during the 09/10 season and posted 55-60 points during years 2-3 of his ELC (which would have been the upcoming 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons) than the ~45 point seasons he actually recorded during seasons 2 and 3 of his ELC.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
What is the Plan? A Prelude
Bob paraphrased (1) my question as follows:
"How do you, do you have goals for this season coming up? And is there a concern that maybe goals for this season might be short term when you've got a long term vision planned for the organization?"
Tambellini's response was:
"No, I think that you have to be aggressive and the fact that we were obviously, we've made numerous changes on and off the ice, and I really believe this has just, this has given the organization a chance to start again. And, will we be young in some places? Yes. Do we want to make the playoffs? Absolutely, that should be your goal every year. So, our goals are to be better at developing, more consistently obviously throughout the year, and we're going to demand a lot more of our people. And young people are going to be put into spots that maybe they will not be ready for, but maybe they will be by Christmastime. It's going to be exciting. I kind of wish it was a little closer to the start of camp, but I guess maybe I should relax and just wait."
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Pining for Pisani
I think it would be hard to argue he's not a better player than some of Edmonton's current top 14F, so what exactly is going on here? Was he not willing to sign in Edmonton for 700K or so? Or did the Oilers simply decide they didn't want to have him back? I have a hard time believing he wouldn't have been willing to play in Edmonton – he's from here, he's used to the organization. If the Oilers offer him $700,000 on a one year, one way deal on August 1st, I'd have been kind of surprised if Pisani passed on it given the apparent lack of interest in him on the UFA market. But, maybe he felt he'd be able to get the type of deal he did from someone, so no rush to sign that hypothetical offer from Edmonton?
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
What Counts as "Circumvention"?
The NHL may be able to pick and choose what they pursue as far as circumvention goes, going forward. I'm not exactly sure what they will, or even should, do as far as somewhat similar contracts like those mentioned in footnote 23 of the brief, but it doesn't feel quite "right", to me, to allow the Savard deal after having pointed out that it wasn't only the last year or two of the Kovalchuk deal that bothered you, but the last six years.
I'm also interested in exactly how "competitive fairness" or "competitive balance" factors into circumvention - I don't know how I feel about Bloch potentially opening that Pandora's Box. Who is to judge which cap manipulating manoeuvres qualify as "circumvention", and which ones don't, if contracts that act in opposition to "competitive balance" and reduce a player's cap hit are deemed to be circumvention? If a player and team agree to sign a contract for far less than market value in an effort to give the team more cap room, does this represent "circumvention"? Suppose it's a certainty that the other 29 teams would have offered Sidney Crosby a max contract if he went RFA in the summer of 2008. Does that mean, based on the NHL's rationale - with which the arbitrator apparently agreed, Crosby and the Penguins are both equally guilty of cap circumvention since they signed Crosby for less than his market worth in an effort to "artificially" create more cap room for the Penguins to fill out their roster?
Are teams guilty of circumventing the salary cap when they send a waiver-ineligible player on an ELC to the AHL 30 times in a season to avoid having their full salary count against the cap? Sure, that team might have followed the letter of the CBA by moving a player between the AHL and NHL 50+ times in a season, as they have that right under the current waiver system., but why did they do it? I think it's reasonable to suggest they did so with the intention of reducing their cap hit, keeping them below an upper limit they would have otherwise exceeded. Is this not somewhat analogous to the NHL's position with Kovalchuk? That they followed the letter of the law, but they did so while trying to game/circumvent the upper limit of the Salary Cap?
What other moves affecting "competitive balance" could be looked at as circumvention in this way? Does the Malakhov trade count as an "artificial" reduction meant to circumvent the Upper Limit?
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
The Art of Negotiation
I guess I just don't understand this sort of deal. I'm not sure why management gives a raise to this type of player. Was it REALLY necessary to give Strudwick a $25,000 raise to retain his services for next season? I'm not in the Oilers room, or Strudwick's agent, but I have a hard time seeing which other NHL team would have even given him a one-way contract, nevermind a raise to $725,000. He played the 10th most TOI per game among Edmonton defencemen last season. Admittedly, one could make an argument that he was more like 8th in ATOI, since the Johnson/Staois and Whitney/Visnovsky pairings were never on the team at the same time. Even given that, why did the 8th defenceman on the worst team in the league deserve a raise?
Maybe I'm way off in assuming the Oilers could have signed Strudwick for $500,000 as a UFA, or signed Jacques for $550,000 and Deslauriers for $700,000 on one-way deals if they had declined to qualify both players and looked to re-sign them as UFA's. Or used their leverage with Dubnyk to get him signed for $700,000, given that he had no guarantee of a one way contract, Khabibulin and Deslauriers (in this hypothetical) ahead of him on one-way deals, and isn't a stone cold lock to get picked up on waivers this fall. But that represents a real savings of $690,000, and it seems to me that money that could be better used than giving end of the roster players slight overpays that don't seem particularly likely to generate enough goodwill to influence potential future contract negotiations. Better used for things like signing a couple college free agents, hiring more scouts, signing higher quality AHL veterans, or incremental money that could be used to sign a UFA F or D this summer for 2.2 mil instead of 1.5 mil, with an eye towards getting a better quality player that can be flipped for a 2nd at the deadline.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Creating Your Own Problem & The Return Of The Three Headed Monster?
The main problem here is you've created a favorable comparable in arbitration for Deslauriers. If I'm JDD's agent, I don't think I need to work very hard to show that (a) Edmonton thinks Deslauriers is better, since they gave him the majority of starts last year after Khabibulin went down and (b) Deslauriers had a better performance last season than Dubnyk, by whatever measure you want to use (Wins, starts, SV%, SO) in the best environment possible for a direct comparison - the same team. His agent has another decent comparable in the aforementioned Schneider, a goalie with 10 career starts that was given a one way deal at $900,000 for the 2010/11 season.
The other problem I have with this deal is that $0.8 million is more than the Oilers probably should have needed to spend to get Dubnyk under contract for two seasons. Dubnyk and his agent have surely seen the market - there are a lot of goalies available for nothing. Yes, it's possible he could be claimed on waivers this fall if EDM were to send him down, but it's not a certainty. You'd think management would have been able to leverage that uncertainty to get Dubnyk to take a lower wage than $800,000 for the certainty of a one way deal, but perhaps his wage suggests that both parties feel his value around the league is higher than I imagine it to be?
As noted at the fantastic CopperNBlue, it's not impossible that the arbitrator listens to one of the strangers hearings imaginable, in that the Oilers might be arguing for a higher award so they'll be able to walk away, while Deslauriers seeks an award just below the amount required for Edmonton to have walk-away rights. CopperNBlue suggests that somewhere around $1.3 million is the line above which the Oilers could theoretically walk away from Deslauriers, and I, more or less, agree. If anything, I think the magic number might be more like $1.4 million. That would be right around the salary of another potential comparable, Jonas Gustavsson. So, if Deslauriers is awarded a salary above the walk away point, the Oilers might be able to get out of this problem unscathed, but it would seem to be an unintentional "victory" - if the Oilers were worried about this possibility, you'd think they'd have either (a) not qualified Deslauriers, and tried to sign him as a UFA afterwards if they wanted him back, on their own terms or (b) waited to sign Dubnyk until they find out exactly what happens with Deslauriers.
One reason that many suggested as a possible rational for the decision to not qualify Potulny was the unwillingness to get stuck with an arbitration award that was perceived to be worth more than Potulny could negotiate on the open market. I have no idea if that's why the Oilers decided against qualifying Potulny (and perhaps Pouliot), but if that was part of their reasoning, I don't see why they wouldn't have extended that reasoning to include Deslauriers, and chosen not to qualify him either. Presumably the Oilers knew two weeks ago that Dubnyk was in their future plans, there is/was no reason to get stuck with a ~ $1.1 million contract for a goalie you don't really want when you can just sign a comparable replacement on the UFA market for $0.6 million if you develop a need for another goaltender.
So, it wouldn't be terribly shocking, if after Deslauriers' arbitration hearing in a couple of weeks, the Oilers have the following three goalies on one way contracts:
Khabibulin - 3.75 mil
Dubnyk - 0.8 mil
Deslauriers - 1.1 mil
Thursday, June 24, 2010
2010 Draft Top 40: 18-40
19) Pysyk
20) Howden
21) Schwartz
22) Sheahan
23) Pitlick
24) Merrill
25) Weal
26) McIlrath
27) Tinordi
28) Nelson
29) Coyle
30) Toffoli
31) McFarland
32) Faulk
33) Bennett
34) McKegg
35) Galiev
36) Pickard
37) Petrovic
38) Kabanov
39) Spooner
40) Marincin
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
2010 Draft Top 40: 11- 17
2010 rankings: 11-17
11) Jeff Skinner - There's a lot there, hard to believe THN has him at 25 OV while RLR has him as the 5th best F and ISS at 9 OV; that's a lot of variation for a guy that early that plays in the OHL, you'd expect that more from a Russian, for example. Skating would appear to be a concern, but that's an awful lot of production to ignore once you get past pick 10 or so, IMO.
12) Jack Campbell - I agree with YKOil, this goalie appears to be a better prospect than the top goalies the past couple seasons. I hesitate a bit having him even this high, but I think most of the "sure things" are gone by this point already; he's probably worth the risk and time invested in a goalie at this point.
13) Derek Forbort - He kind of reminds me of Oliver Ekman-Larsson when I read about him, not sure how accurate that is having never seen either player pre-draft. Maybe OEL's ceiling was seen to be higher in his draft, although, I have read Redline suggesting that Forbort might have the highest potential of any D in the draft.
14) Evgeny Kuznetsov - really like the sound of this player, I don't actually expect him to go this high.
15) Alex Burmistrov - It's one thing to expect a player to put on 10-15 lbs post draft. 30 lbs is a different story.
16) Nick Bjugstad* - This is a projection pick, but there's a lot of potential to project. Bjugstad is a late birthday, July 17, 1992, meaning he won't be a UFA until the summer of 2020 instead of 2019 like the majority of his draft class, so a team can be patient with him, leave him in college for 3 years, and see what develops.
17) Austin Watson - This is another projection pick, it really depends how much you take from his time in Peterborough after the move from Windsor. I like the sounds of the player, but am a bit hesitant because, while 20 pts in 10 games is great (22 pts. in 14 games including playoffs), it's a pretty small sample size.
The rest of the top 40 will come in one grouping, I think it's a bit muddy beyond this point. That makes it sound like I think there's a notable difference between 17 and 18, which I guess isn't really the case, but I do think there's a better case for Watson to go nearer the front of this group than the players who will follow him.
Monday, June 21, 2010
2010 Draft Top 40: 3-10
Fair warning: every year I underrate D and G relative to F, in terms of where they are actually drafted, because I'm of the opinion that forwards are generally better value from the draft than defence or goaltending.
2010 rankings: 3-10
3) Mikael Granlund – I'm a total sucker for hockey sense, and I probably overrate small players, but what a player!
4) Vladimir Tarasenko – Doesn't seem like an awful lot to dislike about this player. I don't necessarily think any of the three forwards grouped here will go top 5, but wouldn't be shocked if any did; I think they represent good value if they are still kicking around at 10.
5) Brett Connolly – I think this ranking is too high, but I'm largely ignoring the "injury factor" here, with the caveat that if there are injury concerns he drops. He's only rated five-ish with a clean bill of health, and I'm not sure if that outlook is grounded in reality.
6) Brandon Gormley – As mentioned earlier, I generally rate D and G lower than most, but even given that I'm of the opinion that the D are a little bit overrated this season. That said, the consensus group (if Gormley, Fowler, and Gudbranson are the consensus top 3 D) do seem to have less "bust potential" from what I've read than the 3 forwards I've rated ahead of them, but I'm not sure their upside is high enough to justify passing on potential star forwards.
7) Cam Fowler – love the sound of this player, but do get a bit worried about the reported lack of willingness to battle physically. I'm fine with that if it's because he's positionally sound and doesn't really need to, but if he "plays scared", maybe it's a reasonable concern?
8) Nino Niederreiter*
9) Ryan Johansen* - I grouped these two together because I'm not really sure how to break them apart. I gave the tiebreaker to Niederreiter, I think largely because he came less out of nowhere than Johansen.
10) Eric Gudbranson – Everything I read about him makes it sound like he's a pretty good bet to be a solid NHL D, but IF that's his upside, I don't know that I like passing on potential top 2 line F's to select him. I kind of don't like having him even this high, but I think he's too consistently highly thought of in the various rankings for me to feel comfortable dropping him much past this, especially when coupled with the mono he suffered from this season, which could be a mitigating factor in his play this year vs. pre-season expectations.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
2010 Draft Top 40: 1-2
Taylor Hall was the favorite to go #1 overall at the start of this season, and is still the player favoured by most scouting agencies. He has a fierce determination to win puck battles. He is a fantastic skater, fun to watch, and often described as "dynamic" and "explosive". I don't know how much weight I put into a player being "clutch", but Hall is the kind of guy who might convert skeptics. He certainly hasn't had any trouble producing in "big games" so far in his career. Taylor has the reputation of being a better goal scorer, though in fact Seguin scored more goals this past season. I suppose there might be some concerns that the player has stagnated, but I'm not sure how well founded they are given the increase in his offensive production, season over season. His goalscoring certainly hasn't increased, it has been more or less flat over his 3 OHL seasons, but his assist totals have steadily risen. Hall is sometimes knocked in terms of hockey sense, relative to Seguin, but then again I would guess that pretty good hockey sense would be a needed for a player to be able to lead a league like the OHL in assists. Some observers suggest that there is a nagging question regarding Hall's projected long-term health, given his (reckless?) style of play. I'm not sure exactly how much one should worry about that, but I do agree it's something to consider.
Seguin was slated to be a first rounder in 2010 draft, at this time last year, but he has climbed the charts considerably since. Most accounts suggest a cerebral player with great hockey IQ, capable of making the players around him better. He differs from Hall in that Seguin is seen to be more calculating and methodical in assessing a given play than Hall. That is, Seguin prefers to wait for an opening while Hall tries to create the opening. I have some reservations about Seguin's huge offensive spike this season. I certainly wouldn't suggest that Seguin's season is simply the product of an unsustainable shooting percentage spike, but he did increase from 21 to 47 goals, and as I have no shot data I don't think it unreasonable to at least wonder what's going on. Seguin is supposed to be the better playmaker, though in fact Hall had more assists. However, that may not be too surprising given that Windsor scored 86 more goals than Plymouth this past season.
Choosing between these two players is probably more difficult than the decision at #1 most years, and is interesting because there are so many different ways to compare these players. Center vs. Wing (although both have played a bit of both)? Upside vs. Established level of Talent? 3 years junior vs. 2 years junior?
Personally, all else equal, I generally prefer a center over a wing, and the player with better hockey sense, which would appear to be Seguin. But with Hall, I think there's simply too much proven to ignore. Seguin may end up the better player, but he may not, and the general consensus seems to be that Hall's downside is higher than Seguin's.
1) Taylor Hall
2) Tyler Seguin
That said, if the Oilers go with Seguin, I think the pick is defensible. If the Oilers pass on Hall, they must see one heck of a player in Seguin. I don't know that either one is well clear of the other, so given the right offer, moving down could be reasonable even if you don't get the guy at the top of your list, or if you aren't really sure which guy heads your list. I do however think there's probably a slight separation here, if not a major one. Of course, since BOS probably also has them rated fairly evenly, it wouldn't surprise me if they aren't terribly willing to pay much to secure whichever player they prefer. Additionally, Hall is the easier pick to sell, and while that's not necessarily a good reason to pick him, if all else is equal, you have to use something to break the tie.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Why the Oilers should trade up for a late first round pick
First of all, the most obvious motivation would be selecting a player they are concerned might get snapped up in the late first round picks, before they start day 2 of the draft on Saturday. They do have a bunch of picks beyond the 2nd round if they want to move up to secure such a player. This is just a guess, but it wouldn't surprise me if the teams that trade up in any given draft are the teams that have extra picks, which the Oilers do.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Trading for Spezza?
If the trade package rumoured in the Heatley deal summer were enough to land Spezza this summer, the Oilers would be giving up a little bit less value now than they would have been then. Yes, Penner had a very good season last year, but he's only got 2 years left instead of 3. Cogliano's ELC is over(and he didn't appear to take any huge steps forward in development), leaving him an RFA under team control for 4 years instead of 5. Smid is signed for one more year, after which he'll be a UFA in the summer of 2013. In exchange, the Oilers would get a 27 year old C at a 7.0 mil cap hit vs. a 28 year old LW at a 7.5 mil cap hit, both signed for 5 years at the time of the deal. Pretty similar players that way, but I like watching Spezza more. Very informed and educational, I know.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Is It Too Late In The Rebuild Cycle To Draft For Defence?
It's extremely likely that, by the time any D drafted in 2010 and 2011 are ready to be positive contributors to the top 4 of the Oilers, all EDM's top F prospects will be finished their ELC. I'm not necessarily one to jump on the bandwagon of "assemble your team in the mold of the current Stanley Cup winner/finalist", but given EDM's current organizational strengths and weaknesses, if they are planning to follow one of PHI or CHI's defence building strategies, I think it would make more sense to go the PHI route. Of the Flyers top 4 D, none were drafted by PHI. Coburn, Carle, and Pronger came via trade, as did Timonen (though he was a trade-and-sign just before July 1st as a pending UFA).
There is no real way for EDM to follow the CHI strategy, because Chicago's most significant drafted defencemen, Keith and Seabrook, were drafted 3 or 4 years before they drafted two of the key components in their top 6 forwards (Keith 02, Seabrook 03 vs. Toews 06, Kane 07), which allowed the forwards and the defence to mature at the same time. The Oilers aren't as likely to have that luxury, since players like McIlrath and Pysyk might not be positive contributors to the top 4 D for 4 or 5 years, by which time (hopefully) players like Hall, Paajarvi, and Eberle will cost much more than their combined cap hits for the next 3 seasons.
The advantage of continuing to draft forwards is that they, generally, arrive quicker than do defencemen, and I think that is somewhat important if Edmonton is going to try to compete at some point in the near future. They already have two of the top four defencemen they'll need to compete relatively soon, in Gilbert and Whitney. I think it would be easier to trade for the other defencemen they need, and continue to draft forwards, hoping that the forwards you draft now can fill F lineup spots earlier as necessary going forward. If the Oilers really want to use a 2nd round draft pick on a defenceman, it might make more sense to sign a guy like Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet at ~3.1 mil, and fill one of their D slots that way.
Sunday, May 09, 2010
Detroit's Development - Defence
LT wrote:
... One of the things the Detroit model shows us is the value of developing defensemen by sundial.
I replied:
I don't know about that LT. Can't we just as easily argue they've had some late developing prospects and a pretty good D on a pretty good team, making it tough for youngsters to crack? As opposed to some conscious choice to hold players in the minors longer than some might deem necessary for development purposes?
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Backstrom an Offer Sheet Candidate?
Friday, March 12, 2010
Bring Paajarvi over to end the season?
Article 13 of the CBA is the section discussing Waivers. 13.1 says that there are three kinds of waivers: Regular Waivers, Re-Entry Waivers, and Unconditional Waivers. 13.4 of the CBA has a chart explaining which young players are exempt from Regular and Re-Entry waivers. If Paajarvi (and Lander, for that matter) were to sign NHL contracts tomorrow, then according to this article they should be ineligible for waivers. However, perhaps contradicting this is Article 13.23, which says, more or less, that players who have played in Europe during the NHL season must clear Waivers before they are eligible to play in the NHL, where "NHL" is specifically written (not NHL or AHL). This section does not distinguish between the three waiver types, it merely refers to "Waivers". I think it's reasonable to guess that they mean "Regular" and/or "Re-Entry" waivers in this context, since "Unconditional" waivers seems to be a formal step taken only before completing a buyout of a player's Standard Players Contract, but it is just a guess.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Tyler Seguin's Shooting Percentage
Saturday, March 06, 2010
Trade Deadline 2010 - Visnovsky and Staios
(3) To ANA: Visnovsky
To EDM: Whitney, 2010 6th round pick (ANA?)
Never let it be said that the Oilogosphere is overrun by like-minded group-think; there are those both satisfied and unsatisfied with the deal. Myself, I don't really understand the trade. I can see some advantages to it, but I see more disadvantages; I wouldn't have made the deal at this point unless there is some reason to believe Visnovsky is unmovable this summer. And even that assumes I'm set on moving Visnovsky, which I'm not, although I can see the arguments for such a position.
Friday, March 05, 2010
Trade Deadline 2010 - Grebeshkov and Jones
To EDM: 2010 2nd round pick (NSH)
This is a bit of an odd deal to me, in that I'm surprised Grebeshkov could only garner a 2nd on the trade market. Like MC79, I'm not as opposed to this trade as many seem to be. I don't think the value is actually that far from Grebeshkov's "true" worth (if such a thing exists), I'm simply surprised someone wasn't willing to pay more in the (sometimes) seemingly irrational NHL trade market.
In fact, the more I think about it, the more I'm coming around on the deal because I think it is beneficial for the Oilers in potentially unintentional ways. First of all, I don't precisely know how much it will/would cost to buy a replacement for Grebeshkov on the UFA market , but I don't think it would be sizeably more than Grebeshkov's 3.15 mil QO. For that matter, maybe they'll get lucky and find a Jan Hejda? Secondly, dumping Grebeshkov for a pick hurts the current team which should help the team finish last, ensuring a first or second overall draft pick. They probably will finish last anyways, but the marginal drop in expected points must have some indeterminate value to the Oilers. Lastly, replacing Grebeshkov with Peckham for the rest of the season saves the team ~$530,000, which is obviously valuable in and of itself. But, instead of depositing the money in the bank, the savings could be spent on the signing bonuses for a couple additional NCAA UFA prospects. This seems like a reasonable use of money for a rebuilding team. Alternatively, the money could be spent on a couple other high priced AHL veteran talents to help the AHL team improve next season, if you think that improves the development of all your AHL prospects enough to be worth the increased spending.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
A Preliminary Look at the 2010/11 Oilers Roster: An Overview and the Defence
I've mentioned earlier that the Oilers should clear as much cap room as possible in any case. Tambellini has two potential avenues before him. One, he can plan for a longer term rebuild, which would involve positioning the team for another* top 3 pick in the 2011 draft. Two, he can attempt to "reload" and make the playoffs next season. Both plans would likely involve shedding a ton of payroll, if possible, this summer. I like the second alternative, because I think it's possible for the Oilers to make the playoffs, but also because once you've cleared as much salary as possible, if it looks like the UFA markets won't allow you to make the moves you need to be a playoff team, you can always just go with what you've got and say that you're rebuilding.
Monday, February 22, 2010
A Preliminary Look at the 2010/11 Oilers Roster: Goaltending
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
The Power of the One Way Contract
For now, I want to examine the end of the roster in terms of forwards. Just one man's opinion, but I think if your 12-14 forwards are three of Potulny, Stortini, Stone, Pouliot, you aren't eliminating yourself from playoff contention. As such, if they can be signed for reasonable, or better yet cheap, terms, I don't think it would be a horrible plan to lock a couple of these players up for 2 or 3 years. This idea isn't new, in fact YK Oil wrote about this general idea in a fantastic article about a year ago*. Maybe there's an argument to be made that the Oilers would be better off to clear out the one-way contracts and let players battle for the spots. Or that they should bring in some veterans for at least one of those roster spots. I think it depends how much money the above players are willing to sign for (Stortini excepted, as he's already under contract for a 700K cap hit next season).
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Kovalchuk's Next Contract and the Max Salary Debate
I'm not sure what I'd be willing to pay Kovalchuk if I were an NHL GM, but I'll suggest that Kovalchuk* would not necessarily be overpaid if he signs for more money than Crosby or Ovechkin. To be fair, I'm not really arguing that Kovalchuk is worth $11 million per season (maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but I'm ignoring that discussion here), but more for the general case that a player can, in theory, be paid more than Crosby or Ovechkin and still be worth his money. Being worth that money would only require that Crosby and Ovechkin are underpaid at their current salaries. My guess would be that they are. That said, how much are they "really" worth? Is Ovechkin worth $13 million/season? $15 million/season? Even more?
Elliot Friedman, in discussing Atlanta's options when it came to Kovalchuk**, wrote " Plus, it's borderline impossible to win with one guy taking that much of your space." This bit of conventional wisdom has been circulating for awhile now, probably since the lockout, and I'm not really sure why. In fact, I think the suggestion is kind of bizarre when you consider how easily it can be dismissed with a simple look to the top of the NHL's standings. The 1st overall team in the NHL, the Washington Capitals, have the highest cap hit player (Ovechkin at ~9.6 mil) in the league. True, he's isn't making the max, but the Capitals aren't spending to the cap either. If Ovechkin were paid 2 mil more per season to bring him up to the current maximum salary, the Caps still wouldn't be over the cap. If Friedman meant Kovalchuk specifically when he wrote "one guy", maybe that's fair enough, but don't the 2009/10 Capitals "prove" that a team can be competitive paying one player the 20% maximum?
I don't know exactly how to quantify the worth of the superstar class player, if such a thing is possible. I also don't know how many players in the league (if any) may be worth the 20% max. All this Kovalchuk contract talk did lead me to wonder about the following questions, none of which I see any easy answers for.
What compensation is appropriate for a star player?
How much do they have to be paid before it's too much?
What factors, besides on ice production, affect "reasonable compensation" for a star player?
Can a truly elite forward be overpaid in this CBA?
*Kovalchuk is probably a poor example because I don't think he's as good a player as Crosby, Ovechkin, or Malkin at making his linemates better.
** This article was, I believe, written just before Kovalchuk was traded to the New Jersey Devils.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Waivers prior to the Olympic break
I don't expect to see the Oilers to make much use of the waiver wire before the Olympic break, but I think it would be an interesting approach for the Oilers nearing the deadline. Maybe they can get ahead of the trading and move a player through waivers while not having to pay them over the Olympic break.
The two players I'm looking at are Staios and Moreau. Obviously if Tambellini has heard that there's a positive trade market for either of these players, waiving them doesn't make much sense, so I'm assuming there may not appear to be much interest in either player. I'm not sure either player would be claimed on waivers, but I think it's worth it to find out. Who knows, maybe there's a team out there that would claim one of them, but are just trying to get as good a deal as possible and don't think EDM would waive one/either of them. If EDM management is concerned about public perception, maybe it wouldn't hurt to send the message to fans that the Oilers are serious about remaking the roster, by waivers if necessary.
DOWNGRADING A PICK vs. RE-ENTRY WAIVERS vs. BUY-OUT
Depending how bad the trade offers are for Moreau, re-entry waivers might be a decent option. I'm not sure it makes as much sense with Staios, but with Moreau perhaps re-entry waivers, prior to this season's deadline, makes sense when compared to buying the player out this summer or keeping him for next season?
It would probably make more cap and financial sense to lose him on re-entry waivers than with a buy-out. It would cost an extra 333K in cap room next season, vs. a buyout, but the cost in actual cash is lower and there would be no 667K buyout cap charge in 11/12. That assumes that someone would claim him on re-entry, but if they don't you could always buy him out come the summer.
Before it gets to that stage, Edmonton will likely consider the option brought up by Darren Dreger of TSN, but they should be considering the options in their back pocket (buyout, re-entry waivers in the summer)
I would guess, financially, it probably makes sense to deal Moreau and a 3rd for Exelby and a 7th; the value of moving 4 rounds down in the draft is likely not worth keeping Moreau for another season if he can be replaced with a player making 700K for 10/11. But it may be a tough sell for the fans if they are giving up a third round pick, roughly 61st-65th, while a big chunk of fans are antsy for a rebuild. If the best offer they receive for Moreau were something like Moreau and 2nd/3rd for Exelby and 7th, I'm not sure the Oilers would make that deal even if it makes marginal financial sense, preferring to keep the pick for drafting. In that case, the decision to buyout, place on re-entry waivers, or keep Moreau for another season becomes more relevant.
* - Does anyone have a link to an article that monetizes the value of each draft pick?
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Oilers at the Deadline: Part 4 - The Rest of the Roster/Summary
Horcoff and Khabibulin are players that probably generate no interest on the trade market, due to their cap hits and health. Hemsky is out for the year and therefore unlikely to be of interest at the deadline.
The remaining roster players (Stone, Potulny, Pouliot, Jacques, Deslauriers, Dubnyk) group fairly similarly, in that none of them seem like players you'd really expect to see a contender pick up, and aren't the kind of guy you expect to see moved at the deadline. I suppose it's possible that one of them might be a body moving back in some sort of deal, but they are unlikely candidates for a move since they are probably more valuable to the Oilers going forward than they would be to an aspiring Cup contender at the deadline.
To summarize all 4 parts, it would be in the best interests of the Oilers to discover whether they can re-sign Pisani and Comrie to reasonable extensions. If they can, great, if not move them at the deadline along with whichever of Moreau, Souray, O'Sullivan, Staios, and Nilsson prove movable. Moving all 7 would be a difficult, if not impossible, task (as MC suggests here), even if it were management's goal, but doing so would open up ~17.5 mil in cap room heading into the summer.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Oilers at the Deadline: Part 3 - Value Players of Interest Around the League
Penner and Visnovsky are players that Edmonton should hold onto for next season if they plan on competing for a playoff spot. They are positive difference makers producing, at the least, a reasonable contribution to the team given their salary/cap hit. I don't think it's clear that either could be replaced, bang for buck, on the UFA market next summer, and the Oilers clearly don't have an internal replacements at the ready. That said, they are close enough to UFA, and have enough potential warts that if the price were right, moving them at the deadline might be advantageous long term, even if it hurts the team next season.
These 4 players may or may not be considered core players by the Oilers brass, but I'm not sure any of them are likely to carry higher value now than they will in the summer. I wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers received calls about all these players somewhat regularly, and one wouldn't be terribly surpried to find they are considered part of the core. Even if they aren't, you don't ordinarily see need-based trades made between clubs at this point in the season. If the Oilers are planning to move Cogliano for a D, or a bigger forward, or as part of a package, it would seem more likely to be consummated in the summer than now, IMO.
I'm tempted to group these players with the 4 forwards above; I'm probably oversorting by separating these two defencemen. I would guess it's a bit more likely that one of them/they move vs. the 4 players above IF the team acquiring them is looking to add a D for a playoff run. Generally veterans, both at F and D, are more likely to move as deadline deals, but these two D are a bit older and more seasoned than those listed above, and may hold more appeal to a team both looking at bolstering this year's D for a cup run AND their D going forward.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Oilers at the Deadline: Part 2 - Moving Contracts
I agree with the general consensus amongst fans of the Oilers that gaining cap space for this summer/next season is paramount. To do so would require moving a bunch of players, perhaps more than the Oilers will be able to move at the deadline. In addition, it's probably an open question whether it makes more sense to move some of the following players now or in the summer. I would move all of these players now if I could; it's not worth the risk of being unable to move them later IMO.
Two questions Oilers management should consider asking themselves about each of their non-core players heading into the deadline are:
"Do I have an internal replacement ready for next season?"
"Can I reasonably expect to replace this player for similar money (or less) on the UFA market this summer?"
If the answer to either question is yes, this player should be traded before the deadline, should they prove tradeable.
To my mind, the players that qualify are:
Moreau (2.0)
Souray (5.4)
Staios (2.7)
O'Sullivan (2.9)
Nilsson (2.0)
Obviously the more you can get in return for each player, the better, and some of these players would seem to be worth more in trade than others. But I would prefer to have the cap room (15.0 mil) over the players. I don't expect the Oilers to move all five, along with Pisani and Comrie - I don't know that a team has ever moved out 7 players at the deadline. But a year with many teams in the race and few sellers is as good a year as any...
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Oilers at the Deadline: Part 1 - Pending UFA's
The first group will be the most traditional deadline group for NHL teams, the pending UFA's. The Oilers have 3 such players:
(1) Mike Comrie
(2) Fernando Pisani
(3) Jason Strudwick
Jason Strudwick will presumably have no value on the trade market, and as such is an unlikely candidate for a trade prior to the deadline.
Comrie and Pisani are both unrestricted this summer, and both could potentially be "value" signings for the Oilers if the team is trying to make the playoffs next season, as I would be if I were GM. Pisani in particular, as he isn't currently duplicated on the roster in the same way Comrie is. In trading either player, the Oilers would need to balance the potential return from a deadline trade vs. the potential value in extending the player at X dollars for Y years. Obviously there's no need to weigh those factors against each other if the player won't sign an extension, or has no trade value. But, if you can only get a 6th for each player at the deadline, and can get them signed for ~ 1mil each for a year or two, I'm not sure dumping them at the deadline would be the best move. With Comrie, it may depend on your other moves; you may not choose to keep Comrie if you are planning on keeping Nilsson, Cogliano, Gagner, bringing in Omark and Eberle, etc.
To summarize, I would certainly be on the phone to see what (if anything) would be available for each of the three players. I wouldn't expect to move Strudwick, and would expect to be able to move Pisani and Comrie. That said, I probably wouldn't move Comrie or Pisani if I could extend them at favorable terms AND wouldn't get much for them in a trade. Even if I ended up trading them, I suppose talking about an extension would give me a chance to let them know I'd be interested in re-signing them in the summer, at the right price.


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I am soo excited because her and Tony are moving in to their new house Monday which is only about 5 minutes away!! I see many backyard cook outs in the future! At this point I had already had a wonderful day....but it even got better!! Saturday night was our DATE NIGHT! My parents came over to watch baby Jack while Jason and I went out to dinner all by ourself. I would tell you where we went but I dont want you to get to jealous. Not only was our dinner DELICIOUS but it was so nice to have some quiet alone one-on-one time again. Of course I think I talked about Jack most of the time and how much has changed in over a year! Of course I worked hard to try to look nice and put in more effort than I have in a while....I even rolled my hair.....so this was a BIG DEAL. I even wore a robe around on top of my outfit right until we left so it didn't get messed up. THANK GOODNESS. Right after we got home from our dinner date and I went to put Jack in bed.... this was what I found......
And this was not the only lovely present Jack left for me. He is such a sharer :)
And this was not the only lovely present Jack left for me. He is such a sharer :)
But wait people..........IT GETS BETTER!!!
I went to sleep and then the next thing I know I wake up by myself 6 hours later and freaking out!! "oh no....what is wrong with Jack" I sneak into room... and by sneaking I mean me tip-toeing while the wood floor is making every noise possible. Then I pretty much stick my face right in his face and stare.... I couldn't decide if I was dreaming. Of course...I ended up waking him up with all my stalking noise but my little angel went right back to sleep after he had his bottle and didn't wake up until the morning! Talk about feeling refreshed!!!!!!!!


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Today was a tough one to get through. Between work dilemmas and an unpleasant business encounter that I won't go into details about because it doesn't deserve the attention, I could be a basket case, but I'm not. Because, as I always say, goodness prevails. I like to view these tough times as "motivational pushes" to get somewhere with my novels! How many of you writers can relate to that notion? Aha, that's what I thought.
My kiddo with autism, who as you probably know has been having some serious behavioral issues, is on Day 4 of a new med. Fingers crossed that it helps his aggression issues!! AND - I got news today that he was awarded a grant by a local organization and will be able to start ABA therapy after all. Not sure how we'll afford it after the grant $ runs out, but we'll water that garden when we get there. This is great news!!
I've resumed reading a great book once again - Miss Nobody by Nicole Dunlap. Just about halfway, but it's one of those stories you speed read because you so want to know what happens! Stay tuned for the next book review. I'm so overdue for one. But I'm intent on catching up on my reading list of books to review. The life of a book blogger. We always want to make reading #1, then life kind of intervenes and deters our plans. But if it wasn't for that thing called life, we wouldn't have any books to review, would we? =)


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Trying to trace my Hodge heritage. I am currently stuck on Asahel Hodge born in NY in early 1800's.


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Well, now that they are older
While I haven't blogged as much as I had planned/wanted to in 2016, I posted when I felt led to. Big difference. I had chosen the word intentional back in January of 2013 as my word for the year, rather than a long list of resolutions that would go out the window a week or so later. It's been a work in progress, but I really think after the events of the past two years that I have been better about being in the moment. Isn't that really what it's all about?
I will however share my top posts for 2016. A couple surprised me. I expected several of the recipes we shared to rank in the top 10, you people do love your food as do we, but one in particular resonated with a lot of you and drew a lot of attention.
Without further ado...
Top 10 from 2016
10. Sweet and Sticky Chicken
9. Paleo Short Ribs with Garlic and Rosemary
8. Hello September
7. Paleo Mexican Casserole
6. Blueberry Brisket
5. Checking In and Where We Are
4. Slow Cooker Honey Garlic Chicken
3. Pray for our Teacher and Back to School
2. Merry Christmas 2016 and Santa's Prayer
1. Ikea Lack Hack-Blog Hack by Daughter
My very talented oldest daughter is a girl who knows how to use power tools y'all!!! The Ikea Lack Hack was one of her first projects and it has drawn attention time and time again, here on the blog and on Pinterest. And, in case you missed it on IG or FB, here is her latest creation...


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Belkin MIXIT Aux Cable - 3.5mm, 3ft, Nickel Plated, Green - AV10127TT03-GRNItem#:� YYI2-78546R �|�Model#:�AV10127TT03-GRN
Currently Out Of Stock!
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Belkin MIXIT Aux Cable Product Details
Belkin MIXIT Aux Cable
Play music from any compatible device directly on loudspeakers using the Belkin MIXIT Aux Cable. This green colored cable can be plugged into your MP3 Players or Smartphones using the 3.5mm Jack and into a speaker set or stereo system using the second 3.5mm Jack on the other end. Its flat design makes it tangle free easy to manage while the Nickel plugs ensure perfect connectivity to your devices. Wait no more! Get the Belkin MIXIT USB Aux Cable today!
What It Is And Why You Need It:
- Flat design; makes the cable tangle free and easy to manage
- 3.5mm Jack; compatible most audio devices
Manufactured by: Belkin
Warranty provided by: Belkin
UPC No: 722868889022
Mfg Part No: AV10127TT03-GRN
Box Size:
( Length:0, Width:0, Depth:0)
Shipping Weight: 0.1000 pound(s)
Click here for full warranty and support information
- Belkin logos are registered trademarks of Belkin. All others trademarks and copyrights mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.


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Mobility Expo
Oasis Senior Center, 801 Narcissus Ave., Corona del Mar, hosts the Mobility Expo, featuring guest speakers from the DMV and AARP. For more information, call (949) 644-3244.
'Mamma Mia!'
The hit musical "Mamma Mia!," based on songs by ABBA, returns to the Segerstrom Center for the Arts. The shows are at Segerstrom Hall and tickets start at $23.75. For more information, call (714) 556-2787 or visit http://www.scfta.org.
Real Office Centers
The Newport Beach Chamber of Commerce is hosting an event highlighting the executive office offerings of Real Office Centers from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. at 23 Corporate Plaza, Suite 150, Newport Beach. Free to chamber members, $30 for non-members. Event includes food and entertainment. No reservations required. For more information, contact Pam Smith at (949) 729-4411 or e-mail firstname.lastname@example.com.
Mammoth Thunderpower
The Avalon Bar in Costa Mesa is hosting Mammoth Thunderpower, DJ Dave Noise and special guest Silverblood. The bar at 820 W. 19th St., Costa Mesa, opens its doors at 9 p.m. Ages 21-plus. Shows presented by Factory Records: http://www.factoryrecordsshop.com.


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Thank you to EVERYONE who donated items,to the children of Angel Home. The adored their Christmas gifts, and were overwhelmed by your generousity this 2011 Christmas season. We are planning on sending a box in April for Easter so if you are interested in donation toys and such please contact me by March , 15. You can email me firstname.lastname@example.com.
We also wanted to add a disclaimer to these pictures...in some of the pictures the kids aren't smiling, it's definitely not because they don't like the gifts. They absolutely loved them! Sometimes, especially with the past that they all have, smiling without being told isn't a natural thing.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Children of Angel Home, India
Posted by Heartfelt Couture at 3:28 PM
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Jenny was assigned me for the 2013 Cuppa Kim Mug Swap. She took the time to find out that I value creativity and she drew a mountain scene and inspiring message on the mug. A message that I need to remember: to have faith in the face of mountains.
She sent me some sunflower seeds too - because that's all the faith you need to move mountains, faith the size of a seed.
A journal to reflect on my faith journey = perfect.
And finally, she included a bag of whole bean coffee that is local to her, a nod to my collection of coffee mugs from various places we've visited.
How sweet is that?!
I love giving things and I so enjoyed shopping for my assigned mug buddy. I was a little bit stressed about it though, to be honest, because I knew what she said she liked, but I wasn't sure what that was exactly. I knew I didn't want to get something white because she already had a set of white mugs. So I got what I got and I hoped for the best.
I added some other small items that a coffee drinker would appreciate. I saw that she had a Keurig, so I sent some K cups in the package. And I made a coffee sleeve for her. I was so happy when I saw her Instagram post come across my feed, showing me that it arrived all in one piece, along with her comment saying she loved it.
What a fun thing, to give/get care packages to/from complete strangers. And to shop for coffee mugs and get a coffee mug in the mail. Because if my cupboard is any indication, a girl can never have too many coffee mugs.
I'm already on the look out for mugs for next year...


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CORONA, California (March 28, 2017) - Polaris, the world leader in power sports and off-road innovation, has partnered with Team Lucas for the 2017 season.
Corona, California (March 22, 2017) - K&N Filters, the world's leading manufacturer of washable performance air filters and air intake systems, is continuing its long-time partnership with Team Lucas and has expanded its involvement to encompass multiple racing series.
Hello Teams,
We just wanted to reach out to everyone that plans on going down to Estero Beach in May for rounds 3 & 4. If you do plan on attending the race, please contact Victor Celis ASAP as he will go over everything that's needed to get you safely into Mexico and back.
Teams pulling down trailers with UTV's, Trucks, Buggy's, or Golf carts needs to be across the border no later than 12 noon. Also everything inside your trailer needs to be declared through customs in order to cross over into Mexico. Victor will be able to break down everything that's needed for you to have a safe entry into Mexico and back.
Corona, California (March 15, 2017) - Hostile Off-Road Wheels, one of the leading manufacturers of custom off-road wheels, has expanded its partnership with the Lucas Oil Off Road Racing Series for 2017.
Tell us about your racing background and how you ended up at the Lucas Oil Regional Series:
My name is Mason Prater, I am 11 years old and I have been racing for 6 years and this will be my 7th season. I started out with an outlaw kart and then moved into a JR1. In 2014, I won the Lucas Oil Championship in the JR1. I have raced 3 karts in the series and am now racing a mod. I started racing the regional series in California because there is a lot of competition and that makes racing exciting.


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What's new
Coventry University has been awarded University of the Year for Student Experience
Coventry University has been awarded a major accolade, it's been named 'University of the Year for Student Experience' in the latest Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide - which was published in September.
This award came just weeks after a Times Higher Education magazine Europe-wide league table ranked Coventry top in the UK and third on the continent for how well it engages with its students.
Times and Sunday Times editors cite "consistently outstanding" student support services and the transformation of its portfolio of courses, including campuses in London and Scarborough as factors in Coventry's strong performance in this weekend's guide. They also describe the university as "bold" and "innovative" in its vision for students.
Alastair McCall editor of the guide commented on Coventry University's latest award:
"Coventry University has become one of the most innovative of modern universities, bold with its brand and its vision of what the 21st century student experience should be.
Students are responding: applications are up and once they get here, they give a ringing endorsement year in year out of the university's outstanding efforts on their behalf."
Vice Chancellor John Latham expressed:
"This is wonderful news and is especially welcome just as thousands of students are set to arrive at our campuses in Coventry, London and Scarborough this weekend to begin or resume their educational journey with us.
Moreover, it's further vindication of the focus we place on ensuring an excellent experience for our students – be that through top quality teaching, excellent facilities or the availability of employment and international placement opportunities – which is at the heart of everything we do."
If you want to study at Coventry University, you can apply for January 2019 entry - take a look at the courses available.


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Nightlatches come in a wide variety of styles and in two sizes with many different capabilities. To know which size you have on your door, measure the distance between the edge of the door and the centre of the keyhole. If this distance is 44mm then you'll have a narrow stile nightlatch. If the distance is 60mm then you'll have a standard stile nightlatch.
Rim Nightlatches - Non Deadlocking
The main latch bolt in a nightlatch has a rounded leading edge and is spring loaded. As you turn the inside knob the latch is withdrawn into the casing. You can close the door by simply pushing the door into its frame. A key is required to unlock them from the outside. The latch can be deadlocked in an open or closed position by sliding the snib on the inner face. A nightlatch should be supplemented by one or two deadlocks. See our comprehensive range in both narrow and standard sizes in all finishes to complement your interior. Chrome and nickel look great in modern interiors and brass is warm and more suited to a traditional or classic decor.
Rim Nightlatches - Deadlocking
On this type of nightlatch the latch bolt can also be deadlocked by the key from outside or the key from the inside. The holdback facility can be operated by rotating the handle and depressing the pushbutton and then released by rotating the handle again.
It is very common to fit a cylinder pull to assist with closing the door and these are available in matching finishes.
Rim Nightlatches – BS 3621 Insurance Rated
If you are replacing your nightlatch make sure you buy one that is certificated to BS 3621. Locks like this will be marked by the British Standard Kitemark.


text: Chetumal News Chetumal News - Breaking news from Chetumal including headline news, articles, and news updates for Chetumal Mexico. Browse Local News for Chetumal Mexico Three Policemen Arrested for Releasing Smuggler Advantage Mexico News - 7 years 18 weeks ago Quintana Roo News By: Patrick Ellis | Advantage Mexico (Chetumal, Quintana Roo, 15 September) Three police officers were handed over to the prosecutor's office for the crime of letting a prisoner escape. They are accused of wrongly releasing the driver...more» Planning Chief Creates New State Investment Agency Advantage Mexico News - 7 years 18 weeks ago Quintana Roo News By: David Real | Advantage Mexico (Chetumal, Quintana Roo, 14 September) The state's Secretary of Planning and Regional Development, Andrés Ruiz Morcillo, has announced that a State Investment Directorate has been established with...more»


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Why is it that you - a 21st century man/woman - are feeling uncomfortable with your personal image, you don't know what to wear and you are unsure about your hair style and make-up (for women)? It is simply because nobody has ever introduced you to your very own real-true style.
Hi, I'm Sonia and I would love to assist in solving this issue once and for all.
Let me start by saying that you are NOT the problem and neither are your likes.
The only thing you are missing is information and knowledge... that's it! And that is exactly what I will give you so you can make your own fashion and style decisions on your external look.
Once you do it, your eyes will see new doors of success being opened in your social life.
This is not about doing what I want or what I like. This is only about you and the style that is within you.
That style within you is probably asleep for decades, absolutely bored and frustrated that you didn't care for it all these years. Have you totally disregarded it or have you been trying to wear somebody else's style?
Confusion is playing an enemy's role in this battle for the style land. With so many looks we see in the internet, movies, tv and magazines, it is obvious that confusion will do its evil work to lead us nowhere.
Although some of them present interesting concepts that might help you, they should NOT define your style by no means. You have your own!
The style within you must be the only one you wear and enjoy, otherwise you will always look out of place, fashion senseless and uncomfortable... to name a few.
Once you find your style, you accept it and learn its benefits for your advantage, you will find style freedom.
I'm sorry but I disagree with you. I believe we all have a style within us. I know you have it, otherwise you wouldn't be searching for it. We only search for things we know exist, otherwise we wouldn't bother; does that make sense to you?
History reveals that mankind has always had this search and find desire since ancient days. The Bible states in Luke 11:9...
"So I say to you, ask, and it will be given to you; seek, and you will find; knock, and it will be opened to you".
There are probably three categories of people around the finding fashion style subject.
a. Those who are naturally aware of it and are already enjoying the benefits of living with their personal fashion style;
b. Those who are not aware of it, or don't care; and...
c. Those who are recently aware of it and do care;
Congratulations, you are among the increasingly growing group #3 who says "I need to find my fashion style!".
You will find it with my assistance. In order to assist you, I have to ask you questions that will help me define your fashion profile. This is done through an online fashion quiz that I will lead you to fill in later.
Once I fully analize your answers, I will get back to you within 7 working days with an e-mail report that will include:
* What is your fashion style among five categories,
* Objective information about your fashion profile,
* Images of hair styles, make-up (for women), clothing, shoes and accessories that will help you create the look for your style,
* How to use your style for your benefit, and
* What fashion styles you should totally avoid.
Remember, this report will only be based on the information that you will give me. The results that you will get will NOT be my personal likes; but rather products, tips and recommendations that will help you project the real-true style that lives within you.
The price for this service is USD 150.00 (One Hundred and Fifty US Dollars). This is a worldwide price. The same price applies whether you live in Africa, America, Asia, Australia or Europe - listed in alphabetic order :)
Good point! This is how it will work; in three steps:
1. I will provide you with at least three payment methods for you to choose.
Just e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.com with a one-line message like this:
"Hi Sonia, please send me your payment methods. Thanks!"
2. Once I receive your payment I will lead you to fill in the E-Form "How to Find Your Fashion Style Quiz". You are encouraged to ask anything regarding the Quiz before submitting it.
3. Once I receive your quiz, I will analyze it and reply back to your email with a report within 7 working days. In this step, you are free to ask me deep and detailed questions on your style, as many times as you want, for 30 days.
If you have any question I could not anticipate in this page, please do not hesitate to e-mail me today.


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Bedrooms 4, Bathrooms 2, Sleeps 17
Omaha, Nebraska is right in the center of the United States and is the true heart of the Midwest. Here you can step into history, experience some beautiful art and great culture, and take in some amazing natural beauty. Omaha is home to a nationally renowned zoo with the world's largest indoor desert, as well as one of the top rated children's museums in the country. No matter where your interests lie, you're bound to find something exciting here in Omaha!
Located just outside the Omaha Northwest metro, this beautiful 2,250 square-foot, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home will provide the perfect setting for your Nebraska vacation. The home sits on 5 pristine acres complete with 500 trees, a natural spring creek, and campfire grounds! This is a true green paradise! The home also features a 2-car attached garage as well as a metal barn. You will fall in love with home's cozy, comfortable interior and charming living space throughout 3 stories. There's enough room to comfortably accommodate up to 10 guests here, so it's a great size for a family or group traveling together. Everything you want in your ultimate vacation home is here including wireless internet access, in-unit laundry machines, and a patio complete with a gas grill. When you're not enjoying the abundance of restaurants the city of Omaha has to offer, cook delicious meals at home in the full kitchen, which comes equipped with everything you need to prepare your favorite foods. Fishing lakes in Bennington are four miles away. Enjoy hiking on the property and country roads!
Whether you're coming to relax and enjoy the serenity of nature or to explore everything Omaha has to offer, this home is in a great location to do it all. From here, you're about 20 minutes from the center of downtown Omaha, so you're close enough for easy access to the city but far enough away for plenty of peace and quiet. No matter what your plans are for your trip to Omaha, this gorgeous home and property are sure to become a favorite getaway spot!
Key Residence Features:
Amenities include a full kitchen, piano, music collection, washer/dryer, wireless internet access, patio, gas grill, campfire grounds, and a par 3 105-yard golf hole
Outstanding location on 5 private acres in a gorgeous natural setting!
Bedroom Configuration:
Master Bedroom: Queen-sized bed
Bedroom 2: Full-sized bed
Bedroom 3: Queen-sized sleeper and TV
Bedroom 4: Queen-sized sleeper and TV
Additional Sleeping:
There are two Twin Size Futon sleepers available for additional sleeping. One in the Office and one in the Parlor. Both rooms have doors for privacy!
No smoking (outside only)
No pets allowed
Must be at least 21 years old to book


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Twins Regroup to Beat Mariners
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Miguel Sano hit a tiebreaking homer in the bottom of the fourth inning and Tyler Duffey pitched seven strong innings for his best start in more than a month as the Minnesota Twins beat the Seattle Mariners 3-2 Saturday night.
Duffey (9-11) had allowed at least five earned runs in three of his past five starts. The right-hander gave up the two runs and four hits while striking out four.
Sano's 24th homer, a solo shot, followed Nelson Cruz's tying two-run shot for Seattle in the top of the fourth.
Jorge Polanco also had a solo home run for Minnesota, which snapped a seven-game losing streak. Brandon Kintzler got the last three outs for his 15th save in 18 chances.
Ariel Miranda (5-2) lost for the first time in five starts this month, lasting four innings and giving up three runs and three hits.


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Feb '12 - Apr '13
TINA - Tensile Integrity Nodal Assembly Our "architectural folly" is in production mode! The installation will be on display for GSAPP's End of Year Show starting May 18th. __Technical Elective Class: "Fast Pace Slow Space" __Instructors: Mark Bearak + Brigette Borders __The Team... View full entry
This is a journal of my adventures at Columbia University's Graduate School of Architecture, Planning, and Preservation (GSAPP) as I pursue my M.Arch degree. It includes images of my projects, classmates' work, some thoughts, and grad-student daily life.


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I'm competing in this month Yokomo International Drift Meet: Mr. Bagi Special Round in Malaysia. Excited to meet Bagi and the current YIDM World Champion Takahiro Kawakami.
My team Gaijin Brothers will be there with purple S13, Onevia and 180sx. Apart from individual category, We also competing in the team tandem category, lack of practice together worries us a bit but we'll keep the fun parts ahead of everything. Here are some photos taken today. Sorry for the image quality, just an old iPhone 4s 😄
Thank you for viewing
fB: Kaleelasari Mohd Azwan