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The Center for Birds of Prey The Center for Birds of Prey
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Mission Statement
To identify and address vital environmental concerns by providing medical care for injured birds of prey, and through environmental education and research initiatives.
The Cener for Birds of Prey's Avian Medical Center/Oiled Bird Treatment Facility provides medical care for injured birds of prey on a daily basis, and will be the responding agency in the event of an oil spill emergency in the Atlantic coastal region. Our Education Program includes off-site and on-site public programs. Research initiatives are on-going.
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|18 Apr 2012
Profile log in record
Hi to all.
I had a question from a clinet that I can not answer. I there a way to tell when a user has looged on. We have a PC, 4 profiles with passwords. Is there a way to draw a report to state that user A logged on at 8. 21 and logged off at 09 00. User B on at 10.00 and off at 10 40. and so on, sure you get my drift... Is it kept in the registry? How will we do this if Windows does not keep a record.
This pc has quite important environmetal control software on and the owner needs to keep tract of who made chages at what time.
All you clever people out there, Please assist.
|My System Specs
|18 Apr 2012
Windows 10 Pro X64
Found this: How do I view login history for my PC using Windows 7
The best way is to create a logon/logoff script that is run when each user does either. It can record the logon/logoff info in a file somewhere.
The logon/logoff info is recorded in Event Viewer but it would be cumbersome at best to view it that way. I'd recommend downloading PSTools and using PSLogList to extract the records you want, write them to a file and process them to generate a chart or whatever output you need.
Edit: psloglist security will dump the security log which is where logon and logoff info is stored.
|My System Specs
|18 Apr 2012
Thank you. I have no idea how to do this, yet. I will give it my full attention.
|My System Specs
|18 Apr 2012
Had a quick run at this. In CMD mode, view info but my pc only generate errors. How will I write to a file?
|My System Specs
|19 Apr 2012
Actually, using the EventViewer isn't bad at all.
Now let me find my writeup on that which I wrote for another purpose but which shows what you want.
I'm uploading a zip file for you. Somewhere I've got still another writeup.
EVENTVIEWER - WindowsValidationCheck.zip
|My System Specs
|19 Apr 2012
And here is PowerShell script which will give you the info:
get-eventlog -LogName Application -InstanceId 1073745925 |
Select-Object TimeWritten, Message
I do not know if you are familiar with PowerShell, however, Powershell comes with your Win 7.
|My System Specs
|19 Apr 2012
Wow, you guys a helpful indeed. One issue, that pc is on winxp sp3. Software from Holland not compatible with windows 7. I tested the result and got the following... Txt file attahed.
I log on almost everyday. Well, try to atleast LOL. Why my info so outdated.
I have little if any knowledge of Powershell.
|My System Specs
|19 Apr 2012
Hi Played around there somewhat. got more info out of it... I will take some time to look at it closely. Thank you
|My System Specs
|19 Apr 2012
Excellent. Every time you login, the data and time is recorded and at the same time Win7 verifies that the version is valid.
You might want to consider cleaning out your event logs while playing around with the program (just looking at the login dates in the .txt file).
Clear Event Logs Using a Batch File.zip
|My System Specs
|19 Apr 2012
Clearlogs.bat. Done. restarting pc and logging in. will update
|My System Specs
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This vase was printed in ABS at 0.15mm layer height. I kept the print speed pretty slow due to all of the details and overhangs, so this took about 24 hours to print.
After printing, I treated the whole thing in an acetone vapor bath (using a large deep fryer and a version of the method outlined by Austin Wilson and Neil Underwood here.)
A time-lapse video of the print can be found here.
The model can be found here. Model credit: Dizingof (aka Asher Nahmias)


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Found solution to no reverse and dying after a few minutes
Just thought I would share what I found on my 08 dragon 700. The first thing that happened to it was the typical voltage regulator failure. But after that it would start right up and run a little sluggish at the shop. No reverse, it would just die when you hit reverse. Then when I would get it to the trailhead to test it, it would run fine for a few minutes and it would bog bad and eventually wouldnt even run if you hit the throttle. Then it would just start and die. Bring it home it would fire right up. I changed reeds, boots, swapped Ecu, coils, capacitor, and voltage regulator with a good sled and same story. I then checked the timing. It was at like 12 degrees, book calls for 18 and its not adjustable without a offset key so I tore it down to see if my keyway was bad. When I tore it down, I found the 5 trigger crank sensor wires were both ripped apart by the flywheel. I fixed them up and now all is well. My guess is that when that 5 point sensor goes bad it runs on the two point and that has less timing when its on that sensor. I never had a check engine light. So i guess the best test is to check timing. If it retarded then your probably running on the 2 point crank sensor. Hope this helps someone else
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Some thing your sled maybe doing!
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FOR SALE... SLP Pipe Set For Pro RMK 800... PM. Me for Details BRAND NEW 2013 ASSAULT PIGGY BACK FRONT SHOCKS FOR SALE!! $$650!!! Gas Tank From a 07 Switchback/ Seat Red and Black No tears. Plus fuel lines.
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This comes loose works its way to the inside.. starts to rubs and cut wires!!! Happened to me!
FOR SALE... SLP Pipe Set For Pro RMK 800... PM. Me for Details BRAND NEW 2013 ASSAULT PIGGY BACK FRONT SHOCKS FOR SALE!! $$650!!! Gas Tank From a 07 Switchback/ Seat Red and Black No tears. Plus fuel lines.
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Tackle Box Overview
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Horror Film Reviews: The Wolfman
The Wolfman Movie Review
The Wolfman is the latest version of a Universal movie classic, starring Anthony Hopkins and Benicio Del Toro, The Wolfman story is a great one to tell and in this movie it's done very well indeed, with the main draw of the special wolf effects created by Rick Baker. The overall atmosphere of this movie is what makes it appealing, from the old style London buildings and every countryside flashed in moonlight at every chance.
The story begins when the brother of Benicio Del Toro is killed by a wolf creature and then Del Toro travels all the way from New York to find out what killed his brother and as he finds out that it was a werewolf creature that was responsible for his brothers death, he goes to the local gypsies to find out about a gypsy medallion that was found at the scene and this is where a werewolf attacks and he is bitten by the werewolf, which we just know would happen.
The rest of the movie is a mixture of him turning into the wolf and slashing a few people, ripping a few arms off and a couple of head decapitations and then of course there is a mystery of when he was a child he saw his father holding his dead mother with a razor blade in her hand, which is explained right at the end of the movie, a plot twist that you may have seen coming, especially with Anthony Hopkins wild eyed but always Silence Of The Lambs Type performance.
If you've ever seen American Werewolf In London, then we all know that the special effects in that movie were quite ground breaking for the time and some of them still stand up to this day. Well in The Wolfman, the effect's are a mixture of great prosthetics and CGI using the classic morphing technique and some of the shots of Del Toros hands twisting as the bone structure changes is almost seamless as you cannot distinguish between special effect and computer effect, it's almost like How do they do that?
I enjoyed this film and I certainly will buy the movie, mainly to watch the extras, such as the DVD commentary which I always find fascinating with behind the scenes thoughts, inspirations and verbal notes to intrigue.
Go and buy it or wait until the price goes down.
The Wolfman
Buy The Wolfman And Even Some Older Wolfman DVD's From Amazon
Other Horror Movie Reviews
- Horror Movie Reviews: Nightwatch
Nightwatch movie review, not a bad film, but nothing special. Nightwatch is the first of a trilogy from Russian director and was very popular over there as a result, on first inspection you can see that the...
- Horror Movie Reviews: Land Of The Dead
Land of the Dead a follow up zombie film from the master of zombie horror George A Romero.
- Horror Movie Reviews: The Descent Part 2
The Descent Part 2 picks up right where the first Descent film left off and continues the story with the underground cave creatures.
- Horror Movie Reviews: Doghouse
Horror film review of the cult classic Doghouse featuring women zombies aplenty.
- Horror Movie Reviews: Drag Me To Hell
Drag me to hell a gypsy curse and 3 days to break it or go to hell kicking and screaming. movie review.
The Wolfman Movie Review
I saw this movie a few days ago and I thought it was very good as well. I loved the effects that you spoke of and was also thinking about American Werewolf in London and how some of the effects reminded me of that movie. As always Anthony Hopkins was really good, his charactor in this movie reminded me of Hannibal lecter mixed with his charactor from Legends of the Fall. I have to admit that I did see the ending coming as it was obvious but it still didnt take anything away from the movie. I see we have similar taste in movies. Good review. Cheers.
Of all the horror genres, I think the Wolfman is most frightening to me,more than Dracula or The Mummy certainly. I think it is the 'naturalism' of the monster--after all--it isn't such a big step for a man to transform into something half wolf half man...hence the horror is even more effective. I might watch this one you reviewed, but with my eyes closed most of the time. :)


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Hermann Hesse Quotes About GoalsQuotes about: Goals
When someone is seeking, it happens quite easily that he only sees the thing that he is seeking; that he is unable to find anything, unable to absorb anything, because he is only thinking of the thing he is seeking, because he has a goal, because he is obsessed with his goal. Seeking means: to have a goal; but finding means: to be free, to be receptive, to have no goal. You, O worthy one, are perhaps indeed a seeker, for in striving towards your goal, you do not see many things that are under your nose.
When someone seeks," said Siddhartha, "then it easily happens that his eyes see only the thing that he seeks, and he is able to find nothing, to take in nothing because he always thinks only about the thing he is seeking, because he has one goal, because he is obsessed with his goal. Seeking means: having a goal. But finding means: being free, being open, having no goal.
The many-voiced song of the river echoed softly. Siddhartha looked into the river and saw many pictures in the flowing water. The river's voice was sorrowful. It sang with yearning and sadness, flowing towards its goal ... Siddhartha was now listening intently...to this song of a thousand voices ... then the great song of a thousand voices consisted of one word: Om - Perfection ... From that hour Siddhartha ceased to fight against his destiny.
Slowly blossomed, slowly ripened in Siddhartha the realisation, the knowledge, what wisdom actually was, what the goal of his long search was. It was nothing but a readiness of the soul, an ability, a secret art, to think every moment, while living his life, the thought of oneness, to be able to feel and inhale the oneness.
No, a true seeker, one who truly wished to find, could accept no doctrine. But the man who has found what he sought, such a man could approve of every doctrine, each and every one, every path, every goal; nothing separated him any longer from all those thousands of others who lived in the eternal, who breathed the Divine.
But one thing this doctrine, so clean, so venerable, does not contain: it does nto contain the secret of what the Sublime One himself experienced, he alone among the hundreds of thousands. This is why I am continuing my wanderings not to seek another, better doctrine, because I know there is none, but to leave behind all the teachings and all teachers, and either attain my goal alone or die.
Hermann Hesse
- Born: July 2, 1877
- Died: August 9, 1962
- Occupation: Poet
- Cite this Page: Citation


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Naga303 http://www.cheapnorthfacesale.com/ - http://www.cheapnorthfacesale.com/ . The World Series of Poker (WSOP) had been dominated by American players up until the year 1990. Up until this point, there had never been a winner of the main event who wasn't American. 1990 changed all that. Mansour Matloubi was an Omaha specialist who was from Wales (originally from Iran), and found himself competing with Hans "Tuna" Lund who was a Nevada player that had quite a following. He became the first non-American winner of the WSOP in an exciting exchange of hands.
There were a few other things that made the 1990 WSOP special. First of all it was the first event series to happen since the death of Benny Binion, who was the creator - http://www.wired.com/search?query=creator of the World Series of Poker. It was also the last time that the WSOP would have less than 200 people competing for prizes. There were a total of 194 entrants to participate, and it would never again be the same. Lastly, it was also the first time that the prize for the main event would be less than a million bucks.
The way that Mansour Matloubi would win it all would come down to a key hand he had when he had less chips than "Tuna" Lund. During the course of that hand, Matloubi would be dealt pocket tens, and would gain confidence and put in 75,000. Lund called it, of course. Lund made a mistake, however, because he had top pair, top kicker, and was not overly experienced in that hand. Matloubi followed up with this by under betting and only putting in 100,000. Lund reacted by raising the bet another 250,000.
Matloubi then went into meditation, wondering - http://mondediplo.com/spip.php?page=recherche&recherche=wondering what type of hand Lund might have in his hands. After some deliberation, Matloubi decided that his hand was as good as any he could get and moved all in. Once this happened, you could sense that Lund was a little uneasy. Lund ended up calling it, and once the cards were flipped it was obvious that Lund was left in the dust.
Matloubi just about jumped up with horror when he saw the ace of spades laid on the table in front of him. Lund must have been feeling comfortable, hoping the Poker Gods were in his favor. The next card to be laid was the ten of spades which turned the favor back over to Matloubi.
Over the course of the next few hands, Lund tried to fight back with his 250,000 but eventually the antes and the blinds became too much for him and he found himself backed into the corner with some pocket fours. Mansour - http://www.blogher.com/search/apachesolr_search/Mansour ended up calling the hand with pocket sixes and found himself the first foreign winner of the World Series of Poker. He was an Iranian Welshman, and was the new champion of a sport that had previously been owned by the Americans. He won the $835,000 prize in the main event and changed the face of the sport forever, making it a truly global sport after all.


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The new PV features our first taste of "BUTTERFLY EFFECTOR," the OP theme being performed by singer TRUE. TRUE has also performed themes for Sound Euphonium!, Buddy Complex, and Gargantia on the Verduous Planet, among others.
You can also hear the voice cast, which has just been revealed. Starring as the princess Liones Yelistratova is Madoka Asahina (Avery, Little Witch Academia), with Hibiku Yamamura (Mio Kusakai, Keijo!!!!!!!!) as genius girl Nina Alexandrovna. Also appearing are Natsumi Takamori (Subaru, Wish Upon the Pleiades) as Mahiro Kyobashi.
Asahina, Yamamura, and Takamori will also be performing the ED "Baby Bird! ~Gakuen Logic~" as their characters.
Hina Logi ~from Luck & Logic~ follows the young princess Lion as she travels to Hokkaido in hopes of becoming a Logicalist. The series premieres July 1 on Tokyo MX.
Source: Anime! Anime!
Kara Dennison is responsible for multiple webcomics, blogs and runs interviews for (Re)Generation Who and PotterVerse, and is half the creative team behind the OEL light novel series Owl's Flower. She blogs at karadennison.com and tweets @RubyCosmos.


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Delivery Information
Spend $200 & get free delivery to most of Australia
Click here for all Australian freight rates
- Melbourne 1-3 working days
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For express service, call 1800 069 295 for a quote.
International deliveries click here We cannot ship to all countries.
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2012 Voyager Estate Girt by Sea Cabernet Merlot
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- Cellar 5 - 6 years (2020-2021)
- Closure: Stelvin
Opaque bright dark red black colour with a bright dark red hue. Nosing reveals aromas of blackcurrants intermixed with dark cherries and mulberry followed by some cedary tobacco characters and spice. Already very approachable the palate features savoury medium bodied flavours of blackcurrants, mulberries, cedary tobacco characters and spice. Beautifully integrated very fine grained tannins. Medium to long blackcurrant, mulberry, cedary tobacco and spice aftertaste.
Cellar 5-6 years.
Alc 13.8%


text:
New Forest cycle hire scheme rejected by park authority
The New Forest Park Authority has rejected plans to introduce a cycle hire scheme, similar to London's "Boris" bikes.
A task group had recommended the authority reject the plan because of "anti-cycling sentiment" in the forest.
A cycling event was sabotaged in April by people throwing tacks on the track, causing punctures on 15 bikes.
Olympian Chris Boardman had backed the scheme, and urged supporters to sign a petition.
The authority had considered the introduction of cycle docking stations and up to 250 bikes, but a report said there was "insufficient confidence" the bikes would be "financially sustainable or receive sufficient local support".
The Spring Sportive event, which attracted more than 2,000 cyclists, was targeted by opponents in April.
Mr Boardman's petition in favour of the cycle hire gathered more than 2,000 signatures.
Chairman of the authority Oliver Crosthwaite-Eyre said: "We concluded that the risks of setting up the scheme now outweigh the benefits.
"We felt we simply could not justify spending a considerable amount of government money on a system that might not be able to survive at this time, and which seems to have insufficient support in the key locations of the forest from where it needs to operate."
The Department for Transport provided £3.6m towards promoting sustainable transport in the New Forest National Park in August 2013, which must be spent by March.


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Just a quick update:
Star Ride has been approved by Apple, and is ready to hit the App Store.
The bad news is: our dev contract isn't active yet, so we need to keep waiting for the green light. We'll keep you posted.
domenica 24 maggio 2009
Good news, bad news
Pubblicato da Andrea Mazzini a 09:57
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OCCASIONALLY, during the year and change that I ran the opinion pages of this newspaper (ending a little over a year ago), I would pick a freeway and drive until I saw a Target or a Wal-Mart. Then I would stop, buy a T-shirt or something and head home. Having foolishly chosen to live downtown before Eli Broad was quite ready for me, this was as good a way as any to learn the lay of the land.
One time, I chose the 101, but quickly got tired and discouraged. So I checked into a motel in what turned out to be Thousand Oaks. (Yes, there is a Target on the 101 just past Thousand Oaks. I know that now.) In the morning, I sought out a Starbucks for coffee and the newspaper. It had the New York Times, like every Starbucks, and it had the Ventura Who-Cares-What-It's-Called. But no Los Angeles Times. Thousand Oaks is right across the border in Ventura County, yet apparently the L.A. Times couldn't even manage to get its paper into the local Starbucks.
The Los Angeles Times is a collection of mostly superb journalists who on many days put out the best newspaper in America. But what is the point of publishing a national-quality newspaper if it can't be obtained in Thousand Oaks, let alone Washington or New York? Tribune Co. is right that you don't need 1,200 journalists, or even 900, to put out a paper for Los Angeles County. Nor do you need a good website. (And the Times' -- through no fault of the people currently running it, who do their talented best with little encouragement from management -- is the worst of any major paper.) But why did Tribune pay $8 billion for the Times-Mirror papers in 2000 if its ambitions were so modest?


text:
I'm just grateful to be a person considered worthy to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. —UVU assistant coach Justin Ruiz
OREM, Utah - Utah Valley University assistant wrestling coach Justin Ruiz was inducted into the Utah Wrestling Hall of Fame on Saturday, Oct. 20. The 2012 Hall of Fame banquet was held at UVU's Grande Ballroom and was sponsored by the Utah Amateur Wrestling Foundation.
"Getting inducted into the Utah Wrestling Hall of Fame is a great honor to me," Ruiz said. "There are a lot of people that have spent time with me and supported me to help me achieve my wrestling goals. I'm just grateful to be a person considered worthy to be inducted into the Hall of Fame."
Ruiz was a three-time Utah State Champion at Taylorsville High School (Taylorsville, Utah) and recently joined UVU's coaching staff after a long and decorated wrestling career that featured a bronze medal at the 2005 World Championships.
Ruiz was also a three-time ASICS Junior National Champion, a three-time Fila Junior Nationals Champion and a High School National Champion. He was a two-time member of the Fila Junior World Team and the recipient of the Dave Schultz High School Excellence Award in 1998. He then went on to wrestle at the University of Nebraksa where he became a two-time All-American wrestler.
Ruiz then made the transition to the international ranks, where he went on to become a seven-time U.S. Open National Champion, six-time U.S. World Team member, 10-time U.S. National Team member, two-time Olympic alternate, two-time U.S. Greco-Roman Wrestler of the Year, four-time Pan American Champion, a World Cup Silver Medalist and a member of the first and only U.S. Greco-Roman Team to win a World Championship (2007).
In all, the 2012 Utah Wrestling Hall of Fame class featured four inductees. Reed Fehlburg, Laron Hansen and Aaron Holker were also inducted.
Past hall members include Cael Sanderson (2002), former UVU wrestling head coach Cody Sanderson (2007) and many others. For a complete list of the members in the Utah Wrestling Hall of Fame visit WrestleUtah.com.
James Warnick is an assistant sports information director at Utah Valley University. For more information about Wolverine athletics, visit www.WolverineGreen.com.


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An Introduction To Locating Root Factors For Doctor Home Loan Sydney Australia
Top Tips For 2015 On Details Of Doctor Home Loan Sydney Australia
Neuroradiologist - Utilizes neuroimaging equipment MRI, C lungs, caused mainly due to a bacterial infection. You can detect the growth of toxic bold within your house or that you are urinating more often. A routine investigation of blood counts is essential to for an early diagnosis, especially measures which ensure that the conditions hospitable for bold growth don't occur in the first place. Will the surgery leave is advisable for my child? There are several sub-specialties in this career as well; such as laparoscopy, that... [Read more…]


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About Us
We're a boutique-style digital marketing company. You don't have to come to us-we'll come to you! We communicate, monitor progress, follow up with you, and keep you appraised every step of the way so you can focus on running your business.
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We believe in word-of-mouth advertising!
We generate content aimed at your Target Audience, making it easy for them to understand and share your message, to achieve Top of Mind Awareness for your business.
We love to collaborate with you and we are not thin-skin, our ultimate goal is your satisfaction. We use communication outlets that will yield the highest return depending on your goals.
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FAIRFIELD, Conn. --- In the past two years Deb Hendrickson guestimates she has driven about 26,000 miles -- all for the love of dance.
That's because Hendrickson, as owner and founder of Black Rock Ballroom Couture, knows the value -- and expense -- of a well-made outfit. A pro-am competitive dancer since 2008, the Fairfield resident started her online consignment service as a way for other women to enjoy high-quality, gently used competitive ballroom dance gowns.
And, since her business is new and she prides herself on her customer service, that means a lot of driving to various clients throughout the state.
Dresses that normally cost from $5,000 to $7,000 are half the price with her -- and highly scrutinized to make sure they are perfect. Depending on size and sequins, you can find something for $1,500 or $1,800 or even less, she said. It really depends on inventory. Expect to find outfits that run the gamut from cha-cha to waltz to fox-trot, tango to Latin in sizes from zero to 22.
Hendrickson, a recent transplant from Colorado who worked in retail for many years, said it took all her courage to cold call many studios and start out on her own. But, with her passion and knowledge, her hard work is paying off with increased sales and more awareness.
Now, she said, she has a lot more repeat customers which means a lot less driving and a lot more word of mouth.
She said she encourages ladies to try on dresses in their dance studio so they get a better feel for what's comfortable. "I want them to put their shoes on and take a spin on the floor," said Hendrickson, who also ice dances and is a gold judge for the U.S. Figure Skating Association.
It's that attention to detail that has won her accolades among her clients. "With me, you're not just a number," she said. "You're still spending quite a lot for a dress. I want to make sure it fits you perfectly."
Go to www.blackrockballroomcouture.com for more information.
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text:
FILE EXTENSION EXPLOIT BY Hackerkonka ! Make any .exe look like a jpeg, mp3 or whatever you like! No need to Use Extension Spoofers they may Keyloggers Themselves. They also use This Exploit To Spoof By Soft. Better to Use safe Method Directly !
This tutorial will show you how to make your .exe (or .com/.scr) files look like .jpeg/.mp3 or any other filetype! By normally changing the EXTENSION to e.g .mp3, will corrupt your file, but with this exploit your file will still be executable!
1. I have my server.exe, but I want it to look like a mp3 file, so people would run it. In this case, you should change the .exe to .scr to make it look more legit in the end.
Now, rename your to server.scr (which is still executable) to "song name uploaded by .SCR" (notice the space).
press on windows button in keyboard then type Character map
Then Scroll down and find the "U+202E: Right-To-Left Override" character:
Click "Select" and then "Copy".
3. Now choose to rename your file, and paste the copied character right before the ".SCR" (press ctrl+v to paste)
Then type "3pm" (without the " ") and press Enter. Now it should look like this:
Most browsers have patched this, but it can be used on IM's like MSN or Yahoo Messenger. To upload the file to a filehost, you need to make a .rar file with your server inside.
Now go ahead and mix around with .exe/.scr/.com and the fake-extensions to find some other legit-looking combinations!
#1.Those who can't find the character in the default CharMap in windows, do this: (not sure if it works but worth a try)
1. Download BabelMap and run it.
2. Open as shown in this picture:
- Make sure "Single Font" is ticked and "Arial Unicode MS" is chosen as Font.
- Search for OVERRIDE and click on the RTLO character (row 2020, column E)
- Click on the Select-button
- Click on the Copy button
- Now Do as Above Steps.
#2.Not able to change your .exe file to .scr ?
Do Not worry we have all solution.
#1. Open My Computer.
#2. Choose View Scroll Down Menu At Menu Bar.
#3. Choose Folder Option
#4. Choose View Tab
#5. Unselect already selected this option 'Hide extension for known file types'
#6. Press 'Apply'
Done Now you can change .exe to .scr as of first step.
Done Enjoy Manual Exploit. It's Working i have tried read carefully before doing.
Any Problem Comment Down.
Enjoy guys...


text:
In examining whether Germany s
- Anissa Cain
- 3 years ago
- Views:
1 A Glum 2015 Scenario If... Adam S. Posen Adam S. Posen is Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. This article draws on work for his forthcoming book, Reform in a Rich Economy: Germany in the World Economy, supported by a major grant from the German Marshall Fund of the United States. In examining whether Germany s less than stellar economic performance since the mid-1980s will continue, three questions must be posed: Will Germany be a force for intergovernmentalism and statism or for federalism and liberalism in the European Union? What will the economic agendas of the major German political parties look like? Will anything erect a hard budget constraint on or prompt an exit of savings from the German welfare state? Without economic reform that goes beyond any now being sought, Germany is likely to pursue statist protections in the EU, suffer from an increasing vacuum of ideas in domestic policy debate, and thus sink into further stagnation. As a result, Germany in 2015 is likely to be a meaner, shrunken version of its current self. Outright economic crisis, however, is extremely unlikely and this leaves the impetus of reform up to political leadership. Until recently, Germany has been the swing vote on most economic issues in the EU between the more statist approaches (France, Italy) and the more liberal approaches (the United Kingdom, the Netherlands). This has reflected both Germany s middle position ideologically on economics and its status as the major net contributor to the EU budget. Americans often fail to appreciate how much of a force for internal liberalization the European Commission and Brussels-based decisions have been, and how dependent those measures have been on German backing. Lately, however, Germany has leaned the other way, for example on takeover rules and in perpetuating the huge subsidies of the EU s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This approach reinforces, and is reinforced by, Germany s relationship with France. Germany s role in these Brussels debates holds a mirror to Berlin s willingness to sacrifice its national prerogatives for the sake of European integration: the more federalist Germany is, the more it tends to support liberal or standardizing economic policies; the more intergovernmentalist Germany becomes, the more it tends to support logrolling deals between national governments that preserve economic protections. Over the next few years Europe will be making constitutional decisions, both formally and informally, as it goes through the process of ratifying the new EU constitutional treaty and adjusts to its enlarged membership of 25. If Germany chooses to go down a statist road, emphasizing its relationship with France as the European en- 3/2004 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 37
2 gine, it will most likely cut back on its net contributions to the EU, on the generosity of transfers (and, more importantly, degree of integration with the new entrants), and in general set back economic liberalization in Europe. Conversely, if Germany reverts to its tendencies of prior decades and supports a more federalist Europe (albeit with side-payments to France), integration will increase pressures for economic liberalization and constructive standardization and also lead to a rationalization of the CAP. This would have critical implications both for the reform process within Germany and for the impact of last May s EU enlargement. The federalist/liberal course must be seen as the more positive one, since it would be more conducive to economic growth, stability, and support for international economic institutions. But either way, a clear tendency set up in the next two or three years would have lasting effect. By 2015 the trend will have decisively shaped European economic and political development. The choice is Germany s. Agenda 2010 The Agenda 2010 proposals for economic reform of Germany s Social Democratic-Green government are significant and positive, taken on their own terms. Yet they seem to be petering out. Agenda 2010 could actually pass the legislature and improve economic performance in the next recovery,and still the public would only observe its adjustment costs. The conservative-liberal opposition s proposals seem to consist of the same reform policies, with a somewhat more antilabor tinge. Despite the recurring statements of crisis in the German economy, however, neither coalition s agenda has much support. What is striking is the absence of an overall economic concept in any of the parties or coalitions. The Christian Democratic Union invokes memories of Ludwig Erhard s Ordnungspolitik that backed Germany s post-world War II economic miracle. But they are unwilling to take on real reform by addressing the serious impediments to competition and efficiency in the business and finance sectors that would trim their supporters privileges and the CDU s sister party of the Christian Social Union finds it even harder to cross its smallbusiness constituents. In theory, the opposition Free Democrats could raise the banner for liberalization high, but their years of compromise without results in earlier center-right governments have largely discredited their promises, and they have no real constituency once international business discards them. The Social Democrats talk about reform, but quickly hit the limits on how far they can drag their party loyalists toward a basically alien economic view. The Greens have the best shot at a consistent Weltanschauung that reconciles meaningful economic reform with core values. Their belief in sustainability (including across generations), their grudging experience with letting regulation replace outright environmental edicts, and their libertarian streak make them able to 38 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 3/2004
3 tell a reasonable story about broadbased reform that extends beyond labor to guilds and banks. Yet they remain a small party. This vacuum of economic ideas in the political debate is likely to become increasingly evident over the next decade, and there is genuine uncertainty about what will fill it. The outlook, even after any future change of government, is for increased awareness of Germany s relative decline but a failure to respond to it, and rising domestic malaise and perhaps populism. Still, No Outright Crisis A wealthy country, even one with large ongoing transfers of income (internally and intergenerationally) and mounting government debts, can go a long time before confronting its economic problems, as Japan has definitively demonstrated. Discussions of sustainability and overly generous welfare states,motivated by aging populations, have relevance for today only if either markets or policymakers are forward-looking and take these far-off events into account. They are not and do not. Passive domestic savers can be counted on to finance such transfers until there is obvious direct expropriation, such as high and rising inflation levels, interference with access to savings, or major cutbacks in social programs. This gives politicians an incentive to maintain, if not increase, their programs and explains why markets can continue to make money treating the programs as given.for Germany in 2015, there is a high likelihood that this situation will persist. The high likelihood is less than 100 percent, though. Thus, when forecasting Germany s future, one has to take into account the peso problem of the small probability that there could be a transformative event, and the uncertainty about what drives that probability. For Germany, such an event might be a loss of confidence in the German fiscal situation that led to a hard budget constraint and concomitantly a flight of savings from Germany. In real terms, the government might renege on a significant share of current social-expenditure obligations (since the European Central Bank would presumably foreclose any inflation option, were that to be considered). This would severely disrupt German economic performance and have a destabilizing political impact. It would most likely also have significant spillover effects on employment and trade with the rest of Europe and on global debt and currency markets. In the narrowest economic terms, one would expect this probability to increase on average over time as the fiscal burden rises, debt accumulates, and outlays increase. Germany in 2015 is far more likely than Germany in 2005 either to have experienced such a crisis or to incur one. Even while the absolute probability of such a crisis will remain quite low,the higher the probability becomes, the more it will tend to influence contemporaneous economics and politics. Going beyond the trends, one can list exogenous shocks that might suffice to induce such an event (or rather raise the probability that such an event might happen to the point where a 3/2004 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 39
4 self-fulfilling logic kicks in, with money leaving).one such shock could be an increasing divergence of performance between Germany and other economies within the eurozone that tends to make monetary policy more inappropriate for German demand while attracting more capital abroad. Another could be a sharp inflow of migrant workers who were seen (justifiably or not) as burdening the welfare state without (as is more likely if properly handled) actually supporting older workers.a third might be a situation in which generational politics came to the fore as at times in the 1960s and 1970s, with direct challenges to the privileges of older workers and retirees.yet another might be some form of catastrophe natural disaster, terrorist onslaught, environmental collapse that suddenly required a significant and sustained jump in public expenditure. These are admittedly unlikely, and serve to demonstrate how robust the German stagnation is likely to be to outside developments. Robust Stagnation Wealthy countries tend to stay on the track they are on. They are rich enough to avoid crisis particularly if they are in balance or surplus on average rather than in current account deficit (and therefore are not borrowers from abroad). While Americans talk a lot about the unsustainability of the European and other welfare states, they tend to overlook two facts: 1) these welfare states have already been sustained in some cases for more than a century; 2) it is the US that is the outlier both in the relative paucity of its social transfers and the extreme variability of its economic growth rate. The safest bet for almost all developed economies other than the US is that tomorrow s structures and performance will look very much like today s. For Germany in particular, the conjunction of actors having veto points over policy (as demonstrated in blockage of Agenda 2010) and the commitment to gradualism and collaboration in the country s economic and political structures tends to add stability.this is intentional; by design,the German political economy has been about transferring income to promote social stability, particularly in the postwar period. Despite all the contrary rhetoric of transformation, that was the goal of all western German decision-makers (government, business, and labor) for reunification, and it remains the underlying goal even of Germany s commitment to European integration. There will be minimal further convergence between eastern and western German income levels.when German economic unification took place in 1990, the government of Helmut Kohl promised a prosperous and equal economic future for the new Länder, with incomes converging with western German levels within a decade. Income levels are ultimately what count in judging an economy s development: they represent purchasing power as well as productivity. If a region or economic system is backward, it will be defined as such by its income level,and within a unified welfare state any persistent gap in income level will have to be compensated for. 40 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 3/2004
5 East-West Gap That is, of course, what happened between the old and new Länder.The huge transfers (initially as much as 7 percent of German GDP, more recently around 4 percent) from west to east were motivated, though, by an unholy alliance of the Kohl government and west German unions against east German workers. The government did not want massive westward migration within its borders, and so had an interest in paying people to stay in their home regions; the DGB (umbrella labor association) and its member unions did not want low-wage competition against their jobs and employers. Thus, they agreed on the popular strategy of exchanging Ostmarks for Deutsche Marks at an unrealistic 1:1 ratio and reaching wage settlements that promised eastern workers more than 60 percent of western wages initially, with a rapid rise toward western wage levels through collective bargaining. In combination, these two factors completely overpriced east German production. The result has been persistently high unemployment and underinvestment in eastern Germany, with huge dependencies on government-funded work programs and social benefits. This situation will improve only slightly between now and The only way for income levels to converge is for productivity in eastern Germany to rise to western levels and that requires investment in and turnover of both human and physical capital. There has been some of that in the ex- German Democratic Republic (GDR), with beneficial results. Some of the government funds that have gone into eastern Germany have been in the form of useful infrastructure projects (such as new telecom lines and transportation networks). Over time, some older east German workers have been retrained, and more have left the workforce or retired, while an increasing proportion of younger eastern Germans have received western standards of education and job experience. Nonetheless, this has been an uphill battle, given the huge gap in productivity levels; east Germans actually began 1991 with average productivity levels only one-third those of their west German counterparts, and the terms of monetary and labor market unification erected barriers to adjustment. The current gap, with emptying regions in eastern Germany and income levels percent of those in the west,will remain well past 2015.In recent years the growth rate in western Germany has even exceeded that in the east, widening the gap. Even if the most competitive parts of eastern Germany were to grow 2 percent faster annually than western Germany for the next 10 years (a very optimistic assumption), only half the income differential would be closed; in the more likely event that the east-west growth differential averages 1 percent, eastern incomes will make up only one-quarter of the difference. We also know that the biggest jump in convergence tends to happen in the first few years of economic integration. That is when the largest gains are captured, through the release of labor and savings from inefficient uses; the 3/2004 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 41
6 adoption of market incentives; the movement of capital to the most obvious investment opportunities; the higher marginal returns to the first reemployed pieces of capital and labor; the provision of needed infrastructure; and the introduction of new technologies. In other words, the biggest catch-up of eastern to western income and productivity levels has already occurred.but we know from the experience of the American South, the Italian South, the British Midlands, and the north island of Japan that the process is extremely slow, even when this initial burst is taken into account. The process is still slower, the less mobile a country s workers are. And the process is slowed still further and labor mobility reduced still more by the political responses of a government to provide social assistance. Obviously, both of these conditions are apparent in Germany. Still an Exporter, But So What? Germany in 2015 will retain export competitiveness, though this will not matter too much. To use Paul Krugman s terminology, competitiveness is a dangerous obsession for pundits and policymakers. No matter how many times economists try to point out that nations do not compete as units for economic benefits (even if in some specific arenas policies promote or restrict specific firms from specific countries), the old concern keeps reappearing.what is important to recognize is that neither export performance nor high-tech production is a sufficient statistic for economic wellbeing. Economies can grow steadily even when they are net importers for extended periods. In fact, as the US and many developing countries demonstrate, there tends to be a positive correlation between growth and importing capital and goods. And economies can have businesses that remain at the top of various industries and export a great deal without generating growth (as in Japan in the 1990s). It is a persistent myth that the German 1950s economic miracle occurred because of the expansion of exports (which is partially the case at best), and that Germany s economic model succeeded by being export oriented (which is completely false). The bulk of German growth until the 1970s was the result of catch-up and rebuilding after the war, with physical capital accumulating to keep up with the human capital and savings on hand, particularly given price stability. It had nothing to do with export orientation, handworker skills, the Mitbestimmung say of labor in management, long-term investor timehorizons, or cozy relationships between firms and their banks. Thus, German economic performance is not determined by the rise or fall of this German model, even if the alteration of specific parts of it may bring about various efficiency gains. Germany s famous performance as one of the world s great exporters really has little impact on anything that matters. What is of critical importance is that Germany has been in current account balance or surplus throughout the postwar period right up to the present day. This results not from export 42 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 3/2004
7 successes, but from the simple fact that Germans as a nation save more than they invest. Economists have no clue about how to explain national differences in savings rates, and so one has to take it as given (culturally or by deep institutions) that German savings have fluctuated around a high level. The excess of savings over investment, however, results in part from the low returns on capital in the German economic framework, which discourages domestic investment at the margin. So while Germany s excess savings represent an advantage in that the government has no foreign currency debt, little foreign ownership of its debt (outside of central banks), and no need for external financing, it also signifies a disadvantage in attracting investors. In something of a parallel to the situation in respect to the German welfare state, stability in the currency has been gained at the expense of shutting out productive factors (in this case, investment and new forms of corporate governance). More Economic Feuds There will be mounting contention between Germany and the US,and the EU and the US more broadly, however, about economic leadership by sector. This follows not from fundamental imperatives of competition or even the pursuit of national welfare by governments. This will occur because Germany, like the US and most other OECD economies, is moving its way up the value-added ladder in production. As a result, there is more and more profit to be gained by erecting barriers of standards or accreditation or normalization or brands and the like. With the rise of the sizable single European market, there is a rivalry to set standards to compete with the US; previously, having won the war and having the larger domestic market, the US was able to set standards in most areas, and its companies reaped the rents from monopoly or at least first-mover and/or tailored positions. Now, in areas ranging from Galileo navigational technology to environmental regulations to national champions in fast food to service sector preferences for locally accredited medical professionals, the EU is setting up standards to compete with the US. To the degree that Germany pursues an intergovernmental-statist approach within the EU constitutional and policymaking processes, Europe will push harder against the US in this zero-sum manner. This will over time add to Germany s export share and profitability in various industries, while losing some (probably less overall) in others. The primary effect on Germany s overall economic performance is likely to be negative if business investment is driven by pursuit of protected markets rather than global competitiveness. If one puts together these last two projections that there will be no transformative boom in Germany from eastern German convergence toward western income levels, and that political attention will focus on sectorby-sector competitiveness transat- 3/2004 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 43
8 lantically, while hurting overall German performance it is clear that nothing is likely to raise German growth rates significantly by Meanwhile, the smaller and more backward economies in the EU have more low-hanging fruit to harvest in terms of reforms and catching up and also have more friendly demographic profiles, and should therefore attain higher average growth rates than the larger, more advanced economies (Germany, France, Italy). Even if the accession economies do not catch up in income levels through a boom, they will still grow faster than Germany for the foreseeable future. Macroeconomic policy in the eurozone is likely to exacerbate this situation. The European Central Bank is constrained by international treaty to pursue a mandate of price stability, defined as a eurozone-wide inflation rate. Normally, transition or emerging market economies (like the accession countries and arguably, still, Greece and Portugal) will have higher inflation rates than developed economies as their traded goods sectors gain in productivity much faster than their domestic service (non-traded) sectors, driving up wages in the common domestic labor market. The present asynchronization of most current Eurozone s economies with the cycle in Germany i.e., they are ready for monetary tightening (e.g., in Ireland) at the time that Germany needs easing or is in a recession is likely to persist, since any tightening by the ECB now will cut off the current German recovery. These two factors suggest that Germany on average will have consistently lower inflation than the mean eurozone rate, and so can be expected to have demand growth limited by a tighter monetary policy than is domestically appropriate. The likely prognosis for 2015, then, is that the EU will have a statist hard core, and that Germany then will look a lot like Germany now except that everything will be a little more rundown. There will be not many young people outside of Berlin and Munich, so the cities will seem less lively. There will be many illegal immigrant communities in suburbs around the cities. And there will be a lot of queues everywhere particularly for medical care and for services though still nothing to compare with the old GDR. The former GDR Länder will remain far behind the living standards of the west, twenty-five years after economic reunification. German businesses, particularly small- and medium-sized stores and companies, will remain ubiquitous; foreign brands and multinational companies will be no more common than in If Schröder pulls off Nixon-goesto-China on Agenda 2010 and extends that agenda, or if the CDU s Angela Merkel proves to be Thatcher, this fate could be avoided but that is a lot to gamble on. On present trends, think New York City in the 1970s as opposed to the late 1990s, and you have Germany 2015 but moving in the wrong direction. 44 TRANSATLANTIC INTERNATIONALE POLITIK 3/2004
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E-Series Vans are perfect for those who own their own business and are looking for the perfect vehicle to work from. Everything on these vans can be customized to the customer's preference. Whether the customer is looking for a cargo … Continue reading
December 31, 2013
by prestonmotor
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For some, the classic Apple EarPods was a thing of beauty, for others it looked stupid, fell out of your ear too easily and had poor sound quality. Now that Apple has brazenly removed the headphone jack from their iPhones, many people are turning to the wireless AirPods. As you might expect, opinions are just as big and polarizing as before. Let's take an unbiased look at this product to see how it actually stacks up without the elitism or inflammatory anger getting in the way.
Headphone comfort is a matter of personal preference since every ear is different and people like wearing different styles of headphones. That being said, the wireless AirPods are basically the same as the wired version in terms of shape and comfort. They feel somewhat loose but just snug enough to stay in place. Many people think this is a more natural shape that won't hurt after several hours, while others think it's too loose.
In short, if you tried the AirPods before, then you already have your answer. The overwhelming majority feel it's quite comfortable, but there are many who disagree.
Falling Out
What's the likelihood of AirPods falling out? This was a big problem with the wired version, so you would expect it to be even worse with the wireless. Thankfully, the headphones are properly balanced and it's rare for them to come out of your ear, even when doing vigorous activity. So, don't be scared to run, jump, climb or whatever else you like doing. The AirPods should stay with you the whole time.
Battery Life
The battery life is about middle-ground when compared to other wireless headphones. You can get about five hours of life with a full charge, and it only takes about 15–20 minutes of charging to get three hours. That's better than many products, but then there are others that can last up to 40 hours or more.
For most, this five-hour capacity will be just fine. The quick charging ensures that if your headphones die, you won't have too much downtime. Think of it as time to take a break, eat something small, and then you're back on your way.
This is probably the biggest problem with the AirPods and the most polarizing aspect of them. There are no buttons on the headphones. Many wireless headphones come with buttons to stop songs or change volume, but not here. There are two ways to change volume: either directly from your phone (which in many cases is inconvenient, you probably won't have it in your hand if you're listening to music), or enabling Siri.
Siri can be accessed by double-tapping one of the buds. That sounds cool, and it gives you access to her even when your phone is away, but you'll quickly see some problems. Instead of instantly changing volume, you have to wait for Siri to load, give the voice command (which can be weird in public) and then hope the volume isn't changed too drastically.
You can also use your phone or Siri to stop a song, and recently an updated was added that allows you to tap the bud as well. Another way to stop a song is to take out one of the buds, which will instantly stop the music.
Sound Quality
Sound quality is something that people have disliked about Apple EarPods for years. While certainly not terrible, many people think that these headphones don't do music justice and tend to give a homogenous sound to everything. Apple has heard this complaint and is now using the new W1 chip in their wireless AirPods. This chip improves just about everything in the unit, but we are going to focus on sound.
Many reviewers note that the sound quality is surprisingly good, especially when compared to similarly priced units. The bass is considered a little low, so it many not be ideal for people who love that heavy thumping, but otherwise they work just fine.
Despite the outcry against the wireless AirPods, most of this is fueled by anger over the removal of the headphone jack. While AirPods are certainly not the first wireless headphones or top-tier, they are very good and solve many of the problems that AirPods users have experienced for years. If you already loved the classic EarPods, then the wireless version is even better. If you hated the sound quality, then the new version might change your mind. Not everyone will be pleased, but this is a fine addition to the Apple lineup of products.


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Newsmax summarises key points:
In a bold yet little-reported speech, The President of Egypt has directly confronted Islamic leaders in his country and challenged them to stand against extremism in their religion.That is both sobering and refreshing. But, obviously Al Sisi is putting his life on the line to speak out like this.
"We are in need of a religious revolution," President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi told imams on New Years Day at al-Azhar University in Cairo. The speech commemorated the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.
"You, imams, are responsible before Allah," el-Sisi said. "The entire world … is waiting for your next move … because [the Islamic world] is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost — and it is being lost by our own hands." . . . .
"We have to think hard about what we are facing," he said. "It's inconceivable that the thinking that we hold most sacred should cause the entire [Islamic world] to be a source of anxiety, danger, killing and destruction for the rest of the world. Impossible!
"Is it possible that 1.6 billion people [Muslims] should want to kill the rest of the world's inhabitants — that is 7 billion — so that they themselves may live? Impossible!
"You cannot feel it if you remain trapped within this mindset," el-Sisi said. "You need to step outside of yourselves to be able to observe it and reflect on it from a more enlightened perspective."
And, we need to ask ourselves just why it is, we have not had this speech headlined as focal world news.
For, surely, this is a pivotal statement. END
PS: And, it is time for us to be thinking about the true religious revolution -- the good news of Jesus:
The Case for Christ by Lee Strobel from Slaves4Christ on Vimeo.


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I've read a lot of books this year. With an unemployment period spanning nearly 8 months (*sigh*), I have found a lot of companionship in between the pages, and the Kindle buttons.
Books and reading are my favorite conversation topics. With yarn and knitting as a very close second. Perhaps because reading has been a passion of mine since childhood, while knitting just came on scene in the past decade… I get a lot of requests for book recommendations, and this is one of my favorite things to do. I usually point people to my Good Reads account because I write pretty detailed reviews there and use their star-rating system (though I wish had .5 stars! or even .25 or .75 stars!).
In these days before 2012, I look back at all the books I've read this year (and the one that remains on my nightstand – still time to finish before the new year!)
Notes: ** Best of 2011 – my recommended favorites for the year. All links point to my GoodReads reviews. You can see all the book covers here.
The Wordy Shipmates
Kingdom Coming
The Murder of the Century
The Rights of the Reader **
In the Garden of Beasts
Unfamiliar Fishes
World Without Fish
The Ragged Edge of the World **
Man Ray in Paris
Earth Then and Now
Spilling Ink
Hope for Animals and Their World
The Tree
Lost City of Z
Architecture of Happiness
Emperor of All Maladies **
Medium Raw
The Submission **
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When She Woke
The Lake
Ready Player One **
When God Was a Rabbit
I am the Messenger
Centuries of June
Vampire of Ropraz
A Thousand Autumns of Jacob de Zoet
The Lover's Dictionary
Dead Reckoning
Across the Universe
One Day
Graphic Novels / Sequential Art (Fiction and NF)
Nat Turner
Empire State: A Love Story (or Not)
Dawn Land
The Influencing Machine **
Petrograd **
Anya's Ghost
The Homeland Directive
American Vampire
People's History of the American Empire
AD: New Orleans after the Deluge **
Life with Mr. Dangerous
Postcards: True Stories that Never Happened
Dark Entries
To Timbuktu
A Study in Scarlet
Hound of the Baskervilles
Waltz with Bashir
American Born Chinese
Night Fisher
The Hundred Best Vegan Baking Recipes
The Vegan Slow Cooker
Vegan Soul Kitchen
Miscellany (How-tos, Reference)
Scaling Down: Living Large in a Small Space
Nonfiction Readers' Advisory
The Compassionate Diet
100 Countries 5000 Ideas