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What to do with over a half a trillion a year?
Understanding the changes in the management of ChinaˇŻs foreign assets
Brad Setser
Fellow, Geoeconomics Center, Council on Foreign Relations
January 14, 2008
The China Investment CorporationˇŻs $5 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, its $3 billion investment in Blackstone and the China Development BankˇŻs likely $2b investment in Citigroup have attracted an enormous amount of attention. Together, though, Morgan Stanley, Blackstone and Citigroup account for about 2% of the increase in the foreign assets of ChinaˇŻs government in 2007. China added $427b to its reserves (after adjusting for valuation gains) and an estimated $17b to the foreign assets of the China investment corporation in 2007. The state banks are on track to receive $60b from the government in 2007 ¨C and it isnˇŻt clear if this total includes the potentially large sum of dollars the state banks may have been asked to hold to help limit overall reserve growth. Consequently, total foreign asset accumulation is at least $500b (Figure 1). It is likely closer to $600b. The record increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets is all the more impressive as it came in the face of a commodity price shock that increased ChinaˇŻs import bill.
The acceleration in the pace of Chinese foreign asset growth coincided with a policy decision to experiment with alternative ways of managing ChinaˇŻs foreign assets. The creation of the China Investment Corporation (CIC) is but the most visible example of a broader trend. The foreign exchange managed by the state banks has increased as a result of the recapitalization of the China Development Bank (CDB) and the increase in the amount of foreign exchange that the state banks have borrowed from ChinaˇŻs central bank, the PeopleˇŻs Bank of China (PBoC). Moreover, state firms also have been encouraged to increase their foreign investment.
The consensus that China had enough liquid reserves, however, doesnˇŻt seem to be matched by a comparable consensus on how China should manage its rapidly growing external portfolio. The precise mandate of the institutions ¨C like the CIC ¨C that have been created to manage ChinaˇŻs foreign assets has yet to be established. Existing institutions ¨C whether the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) or the state banks ¨C are under pressure to increase the returns on their foreign investment. They too will likely experiment with new styles of asset management.
Figure 1: Reserve growth, after adjusting for the CIC and foreign exchange shifted to the state banks
The pace of growth in ChinaˇŻs foreign exchange reserves ¨C including foreign exchange that has been shifted to the banking system and to CIC ¨C provides the best single measure for assessing the pressure on ChinaˇŻs de facto crawling peg against the dollar. Strong reserve growth implies that ChinaˇŻs scope for autonomous monetary policy is constrained, as China continues to place a higher priority on exchange rate stability than using monetary policy as tool for macroeconomic control. Rapid reserve growth ¨C particularly from so-called hot money inflows ¨C potentially limits ChinaˇŻs ability to raise domestic interest rates to cool its economy at a time when the Federal Reserve is cutting US rates.
The way ChinaˇŻs government opts to manage its large stockpile of foreign assets has enormous implications for China itself. A substantial share of ChinaˇŻs domestic savings is being invested abroad by ChinaˇŻs government, in ways that could easily produce significant losses ¨C if only from the RMBˇŻs future appreciation ¨C and in way are often not fully disclosed to ChinaˇŻs own population.
Figure 2: The estimated foreign exchange assets of ChinaˇŻs government
Here, as in other policy areas, ChinaˇŻs domestic policy choices also have a profound impact outside of China. Both the size of ChinaˇŻs existing foreign assets (Figure 2 and Table 1) and the stunning pace of growth in those assets are so large that changes in the way China manages its government assets will have a major impact on the composition of global capital flows. China will account for somewhat over a third ¨C but a bit less than half -- of the $1.3 trillion (or perhaps more) increase in the assets of emerging market governments in 2007. Changes in the composition of Chinese demand could have a particularly large impact on the US. ChinaˇŻs de facto crawling peg against the dollar likely forces China to invest most of its funds in the US. The buildup of ChinaˇŻs dollar assets in 2007 likely was about equal to half of the United States current account deficit.
This paper is organized in three parts.
The first attempts to determine the overall pace of increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets, taking into account the funds that have been shifted to the China investment corporation and the state banks. China has continued to add to its foreign assets at the strong pace of the first half of the year, but less of the increase is showing up in formal reserves. Hot money inflows ¨C one measure of pressure on ChinaˇŻs currency ¨C have increased, however.
The second examines the investment strategies of the key institutions responsible for managing ChinaˇŻs foreign assets ¨C the CIC, the state banks and the SAFE.
The third examines ¨C using the US data ¨C the aggregate portfolio of ChinaˇŻs state investors. The best US data comes from the annual survey of foreign portfolio investment in the US. Unfortunately, the most recent data point comes from June 2006 ¨C well before recent changes in the institutional structure for the management of ChinaˇŻs foreign assets. This limits its utility. However, the recent data ¨C combined with the pattern of past revisions when the survey data is released ¨C still provides some clues about the composition of Chinese demand.
The rapid growth of ChinaˇŻs foreign assets is sure to be an ongoing source of controversy, both domestically and globally. The recent and long overdue acceleration in the pace of RMB appreciation combined with the sheer scale of ChinaˇŻs foreign asset growth has generated pressure on ChinaˇŻs authorities to increase returns. But ChinaˇŻs willingness to accept losses in its quest for returns has yet to be fully tested. The new CIC has a board composed of all parts of ChinaˇŻs bureaucracy, formally reports to the state council and has a mandate that includes supporting the outward expansion of Chinese state enterprises. It was not designed to be insulated from ChinaˇŻs internal politics. Consequently, large investments from the CIC ¨C or large equity investments by Chinese state firms that can draw on the backing of either the CIC or ChinaˇŻs cash rich state banks ¨C are almost sure to generate controversy in countries receiving Chinese funds.
Table 1: Foreign assets of ChinaˇŻs government
Section 1: The increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign asset growth
The pace of ChinaˇŻs reserve growth matters because it provides the best single measure of pressure on ChinaˇŻs currency. Directly, it indicates how much intervention was required to limit the pace of RMB appreciation. Indirectly, it provides a measure of the expectations of private actors, as the gap between reserve growth and the underlying trade surplus, the income on ChinaˇŻs foreign assets and FDI inflows provides a measure of the extent of ˇ°hot moneyˇ± inflows (See Figure 3; the gap between the line showing adjusted reserve growth and the shaded area is one measure of hot money inflows). Consequently, the reserves data provides one of the best measures of the pressure China faces to adjust its de facto crawling peg to the dollar.
Figure 3: Reserve growth v. underlying inflows
The Chinese reserves data ¨C even after adjustments are made for the rise in the dollar value of ChinaˇŻs euro and pound reserves that are simply due to currency moves ¨C poses a series of puzzles. Reserve growth was, by Chinese standards, quite slow in 2006 (Figure 3). The increase in ChinaˇŻs trade surplus wasnˇŻt matched by a comparable increase in the pace of growth of ChinaˇŻs foreign exchange reserves. In the first part of 2007, by contrast, reserve growth was extraordinarily fast. Even after (modest) valuation gains are stripped out, China added $131b to its reserves in q1 and $126b in q2 -- over twice the $54b quarterly average of 2006. In the second half of 2007, though reserve growth slowed dramatically: q3 reserve growth was $83b and q4 reserve growth was ˇ°onlyˇ± $87b (Table 2). The fall in reserve growth was puzzling in light of the increase in ChinaˇŻs trade surplus and the increase in the interest income from ChinaˇŻs foreign assets.
However, both the acceleration in the pace of reserve growth in the first part of 2007 and the deceleration in late 2007 are deceptive. Large purchases of foreign debt by the state banks and ¨C in all probability ¨C other state-run financial institutions held down the pace of reserve growth in 2006. This likely represents an initial attempt to ˇ°outsourceˇ± some of the management of ChinaˇŻs reserves to the state banks and other financial institutions. The deceleration in reserve growth in 2007 reflects the creation of the CIC as well as aggressive efforts to force the state banks to hold more foreign assets. Every dollar bought by the state banks is a dollar that the central bank doesnˇŻt have to buy.
Two caveats: First, interpreting the Chinese data remains an art. For this paper, I have drawn on the data the PBoC releases on the foreign currency balance sheet of Chinese banks to infer the growth in the banks foreign assets. I have tried to match the PBoCˇŻs banking data to the balance of payments data and to Goldman SachsˇŻ estimate of the foreign securities held by ChinaˇŻs banks. However, there is a significant risk that my methodology doesnˇŻt get everything right. The advantage of the PBoCˇŻs data is that it provides a continuous and fairly current data series. My analysis also assumes that changes in the banks foreign currency balance ¨C at least those that do not stem from the ongoing fall in household foreign currency deposits ¨C reflect central bank policy more than changes in the desired foreign currency holdings of the banking system. And second, I am not sure that the various measures of the banksˇŻ foreign currency exposure are capturing the increase in the dollar holdings of the banking system associated with the central bankˇŻs (rumored) new policy of forcing the large state banks to hold a growing share of their required reserves in dollars.
Table 2: Quarterly valuation-adjusted reserve growth, $ billion.
Chinese 2006 reserve growth was relatively slow. The rise in ChinaˇŻs trade and current account surplus wasnˇŻt matched by a rise in reserve growth. At the time, this was interpreted as a sign that hot money inflows had slowed, reducing the pressure on ChinaˇŻs currency.
However, it now seems likely that China began to shift the management of some of its foreign assets to the state banks and other state-run financial institutions in 2006. The balance of payments data indicates that institutions other than the central bank bought $108b of foreign debt in 2006, $45.4b in the first half of 06 and $64b in the second half. The $108b in 2006 purchases effectively doubled the foreign debt held outside the central bank, bringing the total to $228b at the end of 2006. The rise in ˇ°portfolioˇ± investment in the banking data suggests that the state banks accounted for most -- $42.9 of $45.4b of the purchases in the first half of the year, but only a small fraction -- $14.2 of $64b-- of the purchases in the second of 2006. The remaining roughly $50b in purchases likely came from other state-run financial institutions, whether life insurers or the social security fund.
Much of the increase in the banksˇŻ foreign portfolio seems to have been financed by a rise in their outstanding swap contracts with the central bank. The PBoCˇŻs banking data indicates that the banking systems total liabilities arising from the ˇ°sale and purchase of foreign exchangeˇ± rose from $50b to $123b over the course of 2006, a $73b increase. This line item also increased ¨C though at a slower pace -- in 2004 and 2005. In 2004 and 2005, though, the rise in outstanding swaps was offset by a fall in the banks ˇ°other foreign currency liabilitiesˇ± so there was a much smaller rise the banking systemˇŻs total foreign currency liabilities. By contrast, ˇ°other currency liabilitiesˇŻ did not fall as ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchangeˇ± rose in 2006, leading to a rise in the overall foreign currency liabilities of the banking system to the central bank. The blue line in Figure 4, which shows the 12m change in the sum of ˇ°other liabilitiesˇ± and ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchange,ˇ± rose strongly.
The rise in the banking systemsˇŻ total liabilities from the ˇ°sale and purchase of foreign exchangeˇ± ¨C likely currency swaps with the central bank ¨C served two policy purposes. The first leg of the swap contract involves the banks purchasing some of the central banksˇŻ foreign exchange with local currency, effectively taking the local currency out of circulation. This helped the central bank sterilize the rapid growth in its reserves. The banksˇŻ foreign exchange exposure though was limited by the central bank commitment to buy back the dollars placed with the banks at a predetermined exchange rate. Consequently, the expansion of the central banksˇŻ outstanding swap contracts with the banks allowed China to shift the management of some of its reserves to the banks without saddling the banks with the currency risk.
Figure 4: Annual change in the state banksˇŻ estimated foreign currency liabilities to the government
The surge in Chinese reserve growth in the first half of 2007 reflects a decision ¨C still never fully explained ¨C to slow the growth in the foreign assets of the Chinese banking system. ˇ°Other foreign currency liabilitiesˇ± and ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchangeˇ± in the banking data increased by $63b in 2006, but only $8-9b in the first half of 2007. The balance of payments data for the first half of 2007 also shows a large fall in the pace of ˇ°privateˇ± purchases of foreign debt (they only totaled $14b in the first half of 2007). The result ¨C not surprisingly ¨C was a strong acceleration in the pace of reserve growth.
This shift shows up strongly in higher frequency measures of the changes in total outstanding swaps/ other foreign currency liabilities in the banking system. Figure 5 plots the 3m change in outstanding swaps/ other foreign currency liabilities. It shows more dramatic changes in direction that the graph plotting 12m changes.
Figure 5: 3m change in the state banksˇŻ estimated foreign currency liabilities to the government
In the second half of the year, by contrast, Chinese reserve growth sharply decelerated.
Adding in the (net) increase in the CICˇŻs foreign assets doesnˇŻt radically change the story. The CICˇŻs foreign assets increased by $13b in q3 ¨C as $67b of the $80b it raised in q3 flowed back to the central bank with the purchase of Huijin. The CICˇŻs foreign assets only increased by an estimated $4b in q4, as $23b of the $27b it is estimated to have raised was used to recapitalize China Development Bank and China Everbright Bank. Adding the increase in the CICˇŻs assets to the reserves data brings the increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets to $96b in q3 and $91b in q4 ¨C a significantly slower pace than in q1 and q2 despite the rise in ChinaˇŻs trade surplus (Table 2).
The deceleration in Chinese reserve growth in the second half of 2007 corresponds with renewed growth in the Chinese banking systemˇŻs estimated liabilities to ChinaˇŻs government (Figure 5, blue line). The sum of ˇ°other foreign currency liabilitiesˇ± and ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchangeˇ± increased by $23b in q3, and by another $9b in October and November. The banks ˇ°other liabilitiesˇ± should rise by at least another $20b in December as a result of the CICˇŻs recapitalization of CDB.
The PBoC data showing the growth in what I believe are the banksˇŻ liabilities to the government, though, may not accurately capture the full increase in the banks foreign currency holdings. Even after adding in the identified increase in the bankˇŻs foreign assets, the growth in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets is relatively modest ¨C it would be roughly in line with the increase implied by the sum of ChinaˇŻs trade surplus, the interest income on its foreign assets and the monthly FDI inflows (which only capture a fraction of total FDI inflows). The central bank seems to have required that the large state commercial banks purchase dollars to meet the post-July increases in the banksˇŻ mandatory reserves. The 300 bp increase in the banks reserve requirements between August and December (50 bp in August, September, October, November and 100bp in December) potentially forced the state banks to purchase $108b.
It isnˇŻt yet clear how this increase is showing up in the banking data reported by the central bank. If it isnˇŻt reflected in the banking data, total foreign asset growth could be approaching $600b (Figure 6, and specifically, the black line with red diamonds).
Figure 6: Growth in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets growth v underlying inflows, including Logan WrightˇŻs estimate of the rise in the banksˇŻ required dollar reserves.
Just how much money is flowing into China?
Since formal reserve growth is significantly lower than the total increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets, measures of hot money inflows derived from the reserves data tend to understate hot money inflows. Indeed, the unadjusted reserves data suggests very modest ˇ°hot moneyˇ± inflows. However, measures of hot money inflows derived from broader measures of the increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets tell a different story, and indeed suggest that pressure from hot money inflows is now as strong as before the 2005 revaluation.
The resumption of strong hot money inflows makes intuitive economic sense: the rise in Chinese domestic interest rates, the fall in US rates and the acceleration in the pace of RMB appreciation have all increased the expected return on RMB holdings. The offshore forward market now implies an annual expected appreciation of over 8% -- more than enough to make holding RMB more attractive than holding dollars.
Indeed, if the full increase in the state banksˇŻ dollar holdings from the policy decision to force the banks to hold a portion of their required reserves isnˇŻt already reflected in the banking data, the overall pace of hot money inflows would now be far higher than in late 2004 and early 2005 (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Various estimates of how money inflows
Section 2: The key institutions managing ChinaˇŻs foreign assets
A. The China Investment Corporation (CIC)
Consensus on change, but not how to change
The decision to create the CIC reflected a consensus inside China that China had more than enough reserves and thus had the capacity to experiment with alternative ways of managing its foreign assets. The consensus ¨C no doubt motivated by a desire to try to offset the losses associated with a faster pace of renmimbi appreciation and dollar depreciation ¨C to seek higher returns than possible from a traditional reserves portfolio does not seem to have been matched by a consensus on how to obtain higher returns.
There doesnˇŻt seem to have been a clear decision yet on what CIC will be, other than analogue to SASAC ¨C the part of ChinaˇŻs government that manages the stateˇŻs equity stake in big state-enterprises -- for state banks. It could evolve into:
n A strategic investor in a broad range of US/ European companies, just as it already has taken large stakes in Blackstone and Morgan Stanley.
These different roles do not necessarily fit well together. The skills needed to manage a diversified portfolio of foreign equities may be quite different from the skills needed to manage controlling stakes in ChinaˇŻs domestic financial institutions. Attempts to support the outward expansion of Chinese firms in strategic sectors ¨C including the expansion of the state-oil companies ¨C would fit poorly with the CICˇŻs claim that its investments are motivated by purely commercial goals.
The CICˇŻs internal structure almost assures that its investment decisions will be far more politicized than the management of China formal reserves by the central bank. All parts of ChinaˇŻs bureaucracy are represented on its board ¨C a legacy of the bureaucratic battles that accompanied its creation. This could mean that the CIC will function as an intra-governmental coordinating committee for the management of ChinaˇŻs non-reserve foreign assets ¨C or it could mean that all decision making will effectively be concentrated in the CICˇŻs top management, as the board will be unable to agree. Many decisions likely will need to be made by the top level of ChinaˇŻs government, not by the CIC. The existing consensus that the CIC should do a bit of everything wonˇŻt resolve the question of how much money the CIC should devote to, for example, a global equity portfolio and how much it should devote to supporting Chinese firms. The CICˇŻs desire not to be responsible for a ˇ°second Blackstoneˇ± is also likely to lead the CIC to prefer investments with strong backing from ChinaˇŻs top leadership.
Just how big is the CIC?
The easiest way to determine the size of the CIC ¨C given that it has not embraced the high standard of disclosure set by NorwayˇŻs government funds, or for that matter, KazakhstanˇŻs stabilization fund ¨C is to track the Ministry of Finance bond issues linked to its formation. The CIC raised 1.55 trillion RMB through bond sales: 600 billion RMB in August from a large sale to the PBoC, another 200 billion RMB from smaller bond issues to the public between September and December and a final 750 billion RMB from another large bond sale to the central bank in December. The RMB raised from these bond sales are not converted into foreign currency immediately. It seems like the 600b RMB bond was converted into foreign exchange in q3, the 200b RMB from the small bond issues in q4 and the last bond issue will be converted into foreign exchange in q1 2008. Given the RMBˇŻs ongoing appreciation, the Ministry of Finance has every incentive to only buy foreign exchange when it actually needs the money.
These transactions raised at least $207b, with the majority obviously coming in q1 2008. However, $67b of this total was used to buy Central HuijinˇŻs assets from the PBoC in September and another $23b was used to recapitalize CDB and China Everbright bank in q4, leading to a smaller net increase in the CICˇŻs foreign exchange holdings. Past recapitalizations have transferred the foreign exchange to the banks, with the government receiving equity in the bank in return. The CICˇŻs total holdings will be further reduced when the CIC recapitalizes the Agricultural bank of China (ABC). Consequently, the CIC ¨C by my estimates ¨C had only about $17b in foreign assets at ($5b in Morgan Stanley; and $3b in Blackstone) at the end of 2007, a total that should rise to around $77b by the end of q1 2008.
That is a fairly modest portfolio. However, BNP Paribas has argued ¨C persuasively ¨C that the CICˇŻs ownership stake in ChinaˇŻs large state commercial banks and the CDB implies that it already effectively controls a far larger foreign portfolio than is widely perceived. The banks collectively will have close to $270b in foreign exchange as a result of swap transactions with the central bank and past recapitalizations by the end of the year. The combined portfolio of the CIC and the state banks (covered in detail in the next section) consequently is likely already larger than the funds of the Kuwait Investment Authority, and almost as large the funds of NorwayˇŻs government fund. If the ongoing increase in the banks foreign assets continues, the CIC and the financial institutions it owns will effectively soon constitute the second largest ˇ°sovereign wealth fundˇ± in the world, after ADIA.
Of course, though, only a fraction ¨C roughly $90b counting CDB recapitalization ¨C of the foreign exchange managed by the state banks comes from the CIC. Most of the rest comes from the central bank through swap contracts with the PBoC ($144b outstanding at the end of November) or from the recent decision to force the banks to meet a portion of their reserve requirement by holding dollars. It isnˇŻt clear if the state banks in effect manage a portion of the CICˇŻs portfolio or a portion of SAFEˇŻs portfolio.
Blackstone and Morgan Stanley
ChinaˇŻs decision to invest in Blackstone in many ways defined the CICˇŻs initial history, though it may ultimately be over-shadowed by the CICˇŻs recent investment in Morgan Stanley. The decision to invest in Blackstone was made prior to the formal creation of the CIC, and presumably was made at the top levels of ChinaˇŻs government. The precise motivation for the decision remains something of a mystery. Many involved in the CIC were also involved in the recapitalization of ChinaˇŻs banks and knew the foreign investors who took pre-IPO strategic stakes did very well. ChinaˇŻs leadership may have wanted to get into a ˇ°hotˇ± IPO. China also may have hoped to form a strategic partnership with Blackstone, both by investing in some of BlackstoneˇŻs funds and by drawing on BlackstoneˇŻs expertise to help build up the CICˇŻs own skill base. BlackstoneˇŻs China team ¨C and specifically Antony (Tony) LeungˇŞ the former finance secretary of Hong Kong, an independent director on ICBCˇŻs board and chairman of Blackstone Greater China¨C also had close ties with ChinaˇŻs leadership.
Three things though are clear:
ˇ¤ The decision was made very quickly;
Losses on Blackstone didnˇŻt keep China from taking a large bet on Morgan Stanley, though it presumably contributed to the decision to structure the Morgan Stanley investment as a convertible bond rather than as a straight equity investment (limiting the risk of highly visible losses in the short-term).
However, BlackstoneˇŻs disappointing initial performance did apparently reinvigorate an internal debate inside China on the wisdom of investing in larger Western firms rather than investing in large Chinese firms ¨C along with the wisdom in relying on Blackstone for advice on the CICˇŻs investment strategy. That debate does not seem to be over. Soon after the Morgan Stanley investment, press reports indicated that the CIC was not intending to focus exclusively on investments in large banks and that its broad strategy remained under review. Among the strategies still under consideration were additional investments in the natural resource sector.
Indeed, it still isnˇŻt clear whether the Blackstone and Morgan Stanley investments represent a strategy of taking minority stakes in large ¨C or at least prestigious ¨C American financial firms or a set of one-off investments driven by personal ties. Tony Leung has ties to ChinaˇŻs top leadership from his stint as Hong KongˇŻs Finance Secretary, and Morgan StanleyˇŻs Wei Sun Christianson and the CICˇŻs Gao Xiqing were students together.
The public outcry over the fall in BlackstoneˇŻs value, though, highlights one of the main risks facing the CIC: the gap between the publicˇŻs expectation of gains and the high probability that the CIC will sustain losses. The CICˇŻs funding structure ¨C borrowing in RMB to invest abroad ¨C means that it has to overcome a substantial financial headwind.
The Ministry of Finance borrows domestically to raise funds for the CIC at between 4 and 5%. This seems to be a subsidized rate, one that reflects sales to the central bank and arm-twisting the state banks. With inflation running at close to 7% and short-term interest rates rising, there is not a lot of demand for long-term bonds paying between 4 and 5%. The RMB appreciated by 7% against the dollar in 2007. It offshore forward market currently expects an additional 9% appreciation in 2008. If these expectations are realized, ChinaˇŻs government would need a dollar return ¨C net of fees ¨C or between 13% and 14% just to break even.
Coordination with the central bank
The creation of the CIC separate from the PBoC and the SAFE to manage a portion of ChinaˇŻs foreign assets and to in effect reduce the central bankˇŻs need to sterilize rapid reserve growth raises two obvious challenges:
ˇ¤ Do the CIC and SAFE coordinate the management of ChinaˇŻs foreign assets, to assure, for example, that the CICˇŻs desire to hold a more diverse foreign portfolio and the resulting sale of dollars doesnˇŻt generate additional pressure on the dollar? So long as China manages its currency against the dollar, it doesnˇŻt have an interest in contributing to dollar weakness. SAFE presumably does not want to hold more dollars to offset the CICˇŻs dollar sales.
ˇ¤ Does the sale of Finance Ministry bonds to finance the CICˇŻs foreign portfolio help the PBoC sterilize ChinaˇŻs reserve growth by reducing reserve growth ¨C as the sale of Finance Ministry bonds to the public to buy foreign currency would remove domestic currency from circulation? Or does it in practice make it more difficult for the PBoC to manage rapid foreign asset growth?
So far, the CIC has not been an effective alternative to central bank sterilization. The Finance Ministry has raised money for the CIC primarily by selling bonds to the central bank, rather than to the public. That doesnˇŻt help with sterilization unless the central bank can then substitute the sale of the bonds it bought to finance the CIC for the sale of short-term central bank bills. However, selling long-term fixed-rate debt ¨C especially debt with a low coupon ¨C in the face of rising inflation and expectations that short-term rates will rise has proved to be a challenge. As a result, the central bank apparently retains most of the bonds issued to finance the CIC on its own balance sheet.
Here there is an obvious conflict of interest between the Ministry of Finance and the PeopleˇŻs bank of China. The Ministry of Finance would like to raise funds for the CIC at the lowest possible cost and not to cannibalize demand for other Ministry of Finance bonds. The PBoC wants the Ministry of Finance bonds to carry a market interest rate, and not to cannibalize demand for the PBoCˇŻs own bills. If the Ministry of Finance was selling bonds directly in the market ¨C and not leaning on the banks to buy the bonds ¨C the Ministry of Finance would help the central bank with sterilization but increase its own cost of funds. Conversely, selling the bonds directly to the central bank at a below market interest rate helps the Finance Ministry, but hurts the central bank.
So far almost all the bonds have instead been placed with the PBoC, in part because of concerns that the domestic market could easily absorb such a large increase in Ministry of Finance bonds. The bonds have been bought at par and carry a low-interest rate. That leaves the PBoC with two options going forward: selling bonds in the market at a discount (and taking a loss) or twisting the banksˇŻ arms to force them to buy the bonds at par. Neither option is attractive. As a result, the creation of the CIC hasnˇŻt helped the PBoC sterilize the huge increase in ChinaˇŻs reserves ¨C and in a lot of ways has made the central banksˇŻ job more difficult by forcing it to absorb long duration bonds at a time when there is little market demand for such bonds. Rather than selling the bonds into the market, the PBoC seems to have used the bonds as collateral in short-term repo transactions with the banking system.
B. The State Commercial Banks
The rise in the banksˇŻ foreign currency liabilities to the central government
Starting in late 2003 ¨C when the PBoC handed $45b of its reserves to Central Huijin to recapitalize two of ChinaˇŻs four large state commercial banks (Bank of China and China Construction Bank)¨C the state banks have been used to manage a portion of ChinaˇŻs foreign exchange reserves. Relatively little ¨C apart from $15b for recapitalization of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) ¨C seems to have been handed over to the state banks to manage in 2005.
However, the foreign currency balance sheet of the state banks expanded dramatically in 2006 ¨C and, after its growth slowed in early 2007, the foreign currency portfolio of the state banks has grown rapidly in the second half of 2007. The PBoC resumed the use of swap contracts: the banking systemˇŻs outstanding swaps (ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchangeˇ±) with external counterparties, likely the PBoC, fell from $123b at the end of 2006 to $78b in June, before rising back to $143b at the end of November. The CIC also injected $23b of foreign exchange into the banking system to recapitalize China Everbright Bank and China Development Bank.
In the past, swap contracts have been used to help the banks hedge some of the foreign exchange exposure resulting from the use of foreign currency reserves for their recapitalization. In 2004 and 2005, changes in ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchangeˇ± ¨C likely swaps with the central bank ¨C traded off with changes in the banks other foreign currency liabilities. In early 2007, by contrast, a fall in outstanding swaps was largely offset by a rise in other foreign currency liabilities. The precise split among different line items matters less than the overall direction of change.
Right now, the banksˇŻ total foreign currency exposure seems to be rising, as Figure 8 shows. The tan line ¨C other bank liabilities ¨C rises at the time of the initial $45b recapitalization of the Bank of China and China Construction Bank in 2003. The light blue line shows outstanding swap contracts. The darker blue line shows overseas financing ¨C which has remained fairly stable over time. Household foreign currency deposits (the yellow line) have fallen over time, while enterprise deposits have increased.
Figure 8: Foreign currency liabilities of the Chinese banking system (PBoC data)
The liability side of the bankˇŻs foreign currency balance sheet can be matched to the asset side. The growth in ˇ°purchases and sales of foreign exchangeˇ± (likely the banking systems net foreign currency swap position with the central bank) and ˇ°other itemsˇ± (the line item that seems to increase when the central bank used its reserves to recapitalize the banks) generally has matched the growth in the banksˇŻ external assets: ˇ°portfolio investmentˇ± and ˇ°net business with overseas counterpartiesˇ± (Figure 9).
Figure 9: Sources of financing for the state banksˇŻ external portfolio (PBoC data)
However, the banksˇŻ recorded portfolio investment has fallen after q2, despite the continued increase in the banksˇŻ available foreign currency financing. Portfolio investment -- $163b at end of November ¨C was down over $30b from the June peak. The recent rise in outstanding swaps seems instead to have helped finance a rise in foreign currency loans in the face of the ongoing fall in domestic foreign currency deposits. Foreign currency loans, likely to state enterprises, are up $33b from June to November (Figure 10). It also -- at least anecdotally -- has offset a reduction in the banksˇŻ ability to borrow abroad. As of November, though, the PBoC has not reported a fall in the banks ˇ°overseas financing.ˇ±
Figure 10: Domestic foreign currency deposits v domestic foreign currency lending (PBoC data)
State firms have a strong incentive to use dollar financing to finance domestic investment and benefit from the RMBˇŻs appreciation. However, the central bank has no interest in seeing the state banks use money borrowed from the central bank ¨Cor funds from the recapitalization ¨C inside China. That would return the money, indirectly, to the central bank ¨C as the sale of the foreign exchange borrowed from the banks for RMB would increase reserves. Moreover, an expansion of foreign currency lending works against the governmentˇŻs policy of restraining borrowing to help cool ChinaˇŻs economy. Consequently, it is likely that at least loan growth has been matched by a buildup in the foreign assets of state enterprises.
The management of the banksˇŻ foreign currency security portfolio
The Chinese data provide no information about the kind of foreign securities that the Chinese banks have bought. Goldman Sachs indicates that 75% of the foreign securities held by the banking system at the end of 2006 were denominated in dollars. Goldman estimated that the banks held $215.0b of foreign securities at the end of 2006, slightly more than the $180.3b in the PBoC data, and that $164.1b of the 215.0b total were invested in dollar-denominated securities. The Bank of China held over half the total, with a lower dollar portfolio share (70%) than the other banks (86%). The gap between the PBoC data and the Goldman data may reflect the investment of the banksˇŻ IPO proceeds offshore. The accounting of IPO proceeds remains murky.
Interviews with an admittedly very limited set of Chinese bank treasurers suggests a preference for floating rate debt, as the banks benchmark their dollar portfolio to LIBOR and a dislike for low-yielding US treasuries. That hints that the Chinese banks have been buying US dollar-denominated corporate debt. The Chinese state banks ¨C and particularly the Bank of China, which has the largest foreign currency portfolio ¨C have disclosed over $10b in exposure to US subprime housing debt.
Do the state banks hold even more dollars that now appear in the banking data?
The banking data may not capture all of the recent increase in the banksˇŻ foreign assets. The PBoC seems to have required the large state banks to hold dollars rather than RMB to meet a portion of their required reserves -- a policy change that, in conjunction with restrictions on the bankˇŻs ability to borrow from abroad, forced the banks to buy large sums of foreign exchange in the market. Logan Wright of Stone and McCarthy estimates that the state banks have to buy $18b for every 50 basis point increase in their reserve requirements. That implies that the large State commercial banks had to buy aside $18b in August, $18b in September, $18b in October, another $18b in November and $36b in December, for a combined $108b. Denis McMahon of Dow Jones has confirmed that the big state banks bought large quantities of dollars in the market. Details though remain murky ¨C in part because only the large state banks seem to have been required to buy dollars to meet the rise in their reserve requirement. The guidance to buy foreign exchange was provided informally.
In theory, the increase in the banks required holding of dollar reserves (at a time when dollar deposits are falling) should result in a mismatch between the banks foreign currency assets and their foreign currency liabilities. Yet such a mismatch has yet to appear in the data. This could reflect the authoritiesˇŻ embarrassment that they are forcing the banks to take on so much currency risk. Regulators generally want their banks to avoid large positions in the currency market, not to take them. It could reflect undisclosed hedges. Or it could indicate that I am not reading the foreign currency balance sheet of the banking system correctly.
If the banks have indeed bought large sums of foreign exchange and if those purchases are not reflected in the banks reported foreign currency balance, total foreign asset growth in the banking system in the second half of 2007 would rise by $108b, with a corresponding increase in total Chinese foreign asset growth an estimated hot money inflows.
C. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) ¨C itself part of the PBoC ¨C still manages the bulk of ChinaˇŻs external assets. Even with the creation of the CIC and the increase in the foreign currency balance sheet of the state banks, it added around $430b to its portfolio in 2007. Shifts in the way it manages its enormous portfolio could have a far larger impact than the increase in the foreign currency balance sheet of the state banks or the creation of the CIC.
SAFE is subject to many of the same pressures facing the CIC. Sterilization costs are rising ¨C both because domestic interest rates are rising and because reserves are growing faster than money demand, increasing the ratio of interest paying liabilities to the foreign assets on the central bankˇŻs balance sheet. The PBoCˇŻs recent reliance on increases in reserve requirements rather than net bill issuance ¨C mandatory reserves pay a lower interest rate than bills ¨C provides indirect evidence of the pressures it is facing.
Even with rising sterilization costs, the PBoC is still profitable on a cash flow basis, as a large share of the PBoCˇŻs liabilities do not pay interest (cash is a central bank liability). Consequently, the PBoC still collects more interest income on its assets than it pays on its liabilities. However, the increase in the pace of RMB appreciation ¨C while necessary to create the long-term conditions for a more independent monetary policy and a useful component of the PBoCˇŻs strategy for combating the rise in inflation ¨C implies capital losses in excess of the central bankˇŻs interest income.
The creation of the CIC ¨C a bureaucratic rival to SAFE ¨C has added to this pressure. SAFE has a bureaucratic incentive to show that there is little need to shift additional funds to the CIC, as it can ¨C it given sufficient freedom ¨C achieve comparable returns at lower costs. ChinaˇŻs leadership presumably is counting on such bureaucratic competition to increase overall returns.
Nonetheless, the State Administration on Foreign ExchangeˇŻs ability to make large changes in its portfolio is limited. It is such a large player in the market that it would face great difficulty selling a meaningful share of its existing holdings without moving the market against it. Its willingness to accept the risk of large losses also seems limited. It was quite happy to be able to disclose, for example, that it had no subprime exposure over the summer ¨C something that would not have been possible if it had taken additional risks. Above all, the currency composition of SAFEˇŻs portfolio is likely constrained by ChinaˇŻs continued adherence to a de facto dollar peg. Large dollar sales that put pressure on the dollar would weaken the RMB absent a faster pace of RMB appreciation and thus conflict with the central bankˇŻs core monetary policy objectives.
There are nonetheless unconfirmed rumors that SAFE has taken positions in the commodity market and in certain equity markets. Recent indications that SAFEˇŻs Hong Kong office ¨C SAFE investments ¨C had quietly taken stakes in a number of Australian banks are consistent with these rumors. SAFE likely holds a much broader range of currencies as part of its reserve portfolio than central banks who limit themselves to the dollar, euro, yen and pound. SAFE is even rumored to have considered an allocation to hedge funds. However, a few billion here and a few billion there has little impact on its overall risk exposure. SAFEˇŻs enormous $1.5 trillion dollar portfolio is still dominated by holdings of US treasuries and agencies.
Section III. The composition of ChinaˇŻs external portfolio
Neither SAFE nor the CIC disclose their external portfolio. Consequently, the best data on ChinaˇŻs overall portfolio ¨C a portfolio clearly dominated by SAFEˇŻs portfolio ¨C comes from the annual US survey of foreign portfolio holdings of US securities. There is no comparable European data source.
The US data though has two important limitations. First, the survey data only comes out once a year, and it appears with a long lag. The most recent data currently available shows ChinaˇŻs holdings at the end of June 2006. Preliminary data for June 2007 will be available in March. The higher frequency US data ¨C the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data on the sale of US securities to foreigners ¨C tends to systematically understate ChinaˇŻs purchases. The increase in Chinese holdings between the annual surveys has consistently been about two times larger than the increase in Chinese holdings implied by the higher frequency TIC data. Second, the survey data does not capture all Chinese holdings. The survey data wouldnˇŻt pick up any funds that China has outsourced to foreign portfolio managers. It wouldnˇŻt pick up any Chinese investment in an offshore CDO that had in effect sold claims on a pool of US asset-backed securities. The US data also does not capture short-term dollar deposits in the global banking system or the Bank of International Settlements ¨C though in ChinaˇŻs case, such deposits are likely small.
Nonetheless, comparing ChinaˇŻs identified reserves ¨C both reported reserves and a total that includes the CICˇŻs foreign assets and the funds shifted to the banking system ¨C to Chinese holdings of US assets is instructive (Figure 12). The data from June 2006 onwards comes from adding the net purchases reported in the monthly TIC data series to total survey holdings. A similar technique was used to fill in the data points in between past surveys. ChinaˇŻs holdings of US assets are broken into short-term holdings and holdings of long-term Treasuries, Agency bonds, corporate bonds and equities.
Figure 12: ChinaˇŻs US holdings (US Treasury data)
The orange line represents the dollar claims consistent with a 70% dollar share of ChinaˇŻs broad portfolio. The survey data ¨C when it has been released ¨C has consistently brought ChinaˇŻs total holdings up toward this level. The next survey data should also lead to a substantial increase in ChinaˇŻs holdings of US debt. Indeed, taking into account the past pattern of revisions, it is quite likely that China currently holds well over $1 trillion of claims on the US.
The pattern of survey revisions shows up clearly in a chart that plots the UKˇŻs holdings of Treasuries against ChinaˇŻs holdings and the Gulf (Figure 13). Recent surveys have revised the UKˇŻs holdings down, and revised ChinaˇŻs holdings up. The US transactions data records the sale of US bonds to European banks who then sell their bonds to China as a sale to a private European bank. The survey by contrast picks up the secondary transactions that lead to a rise in overall Chinese holdings.
Figure 13: Foreign holdings of US treasuries (US Treasury data)
Even after taking into account the likely upward revisions in ChinaˇŻs Treasury holdings that will accompany the next survey, it does seem like China is reducing the share of its overall portfolio held in US Treasuries. But rather than reducing the dollar share of its portfolio, it has increased its holdings of US Agency bonds. Within the Agency market, China has been a particularly large buyer of ˇ°Agencyˇ± MBS ¨C mortgage backed securities from private issuers that carry a credit guarantee from the Federal Agencies. These bonds have more ˇ°pre-payment riskˇ± and technical complexity than the Agencies own bond issues, and consequently are often avoided by other central banks. As of June 2006, China held around $107b of Agency MBS relative to $148b of direct Agency bonds. But between June 2005 and June 2006 ChinaˇŻs holdings of Agency MBS increased by $51.5b, while its holdings of the Agencies own bonds only increased by $32b. There also has been a steady increase in Chinese holdings of US corporate debt.
It is also possible to compare recorded US purchases to the ongoing flow coming out of China, not just to compare the total stock of ChinaˇŻs reserves to the stock of its holdings. Here though it is critical to recognize the impact of the survey revisions. Figure 14, which plots the change in ChinaˇŻs reserves (adjusted for valuation gains) to the change in ChinaˇŻs holdings of US assets including the upward revisions that occur every June looks very different from Figure 15, which is based on the unrevised data.
Figure 14: 12m change in ChinaˇŻs holdings of US assets (including survey revisions) v. ChinaˇŻs reserve growth (adjusted for valuation gains, the CIC and transfers to state banks)
Figure 15: 12m cumulative purchases of US assets (unrevised data) v. ChinaˇŻs reserve growth (adjusted for valuation gains, the CIC and transfers to state banks)
The high frequency recent data consequently needs to be interpreted with caution, as it undoubtedly will be subject to large revisions. In the past though the revisions have tended to be proportionate to the recorded flows ¨C the total got revised up, but the split between different kinds of US long-term assets didnˇŻt change that much. Consequently, the high frequency data can be used ¨C with caution ¨C to guess changes in the pattern of Chinese demand.
Two trends stand out. First, there has been a pronounced shift away from Treasuries ¨C with total Treasury holdings peaking in March 2007, and then slowly falling. ChinaˇŻs Treasury holdings will be revised up when the new survey data comes out, but it does seem like the ongoing shift toward agency and corporate bonds has continued. Second, there has been a marked fall in all long-term Chinese purchases ¨C and a rise in short-term holdings. This likely reflects a decision by the SAFE to increase its liquid short-term holdings in anticipation of a large transfer of funds to the CIC. The fall in purchases by Chinese banks ¨C which stopped adding to the ˇ°portfolioˇ± holdings in June ¨C may also play a role.
However, it is worth repeating that the share of the increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets that now shows up in the United States monthly flow data is now very small. ChinaˇŻs total holdings are up about $150b over the last twelve months of data, relative to $450-500b of reserve growth. It is possible that the fall in the share of ChinaˇŻs reserve growth that shows up in the US data reflects a decisive shift away from dollars. If China really was just adding $150b to its overall dollar holdings, China would need to have sold $300-350b of dollars and bought a comparable amount of euro, pound, yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollars. This seems unlikely, as such large sales would have attracted a great deal of attention. It is far more likely that the US data simply is failing to pick up a growing share of ChinaˇŻs purchases. It is though quite likely that China hasnˇŻt bought enough dollar-securities to keep the dollarˇŻs share in its overall portfolio from falling slightly, especially in the face of the ongoing rise in the dollar value of ChinaˇŻs holdings of euros and other currencies. To sustain a stable 70% dollar share in its broad portfolio, China would have needed to have increased its dollar holdings by at least $375b.
Conclusion: Looking toward 2008
Sustaining ChinaˇŻs current exchange rate policy ¨C one based on a measured pace of RMB appreciation against the dollar ¨C likely will require that the government of China continues to intervene heavily in the foreign exchange market. ChinaˇŻs current account surplus continues to rise. Private investors generally prefer to hold RMB rather than dollars ¨C a fact that is unlikely to change when US rates are falling, Chinese rates are rising and the RMB looks set to continue to appreciate against the dollar. Consequently, almost all outward flows from China come from ChinaˇŻs government. The only obvious private demand for foreign assets is for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, which trade at a discount to the same stocks listed in Shanghai.
Indeed, expectations of RMB appreciation are now so established that even government investors in China would rather avoid taking on exchange rate risk ¨C though this is only possible in another part of the government assumes the exchange rate risk. The desire among all parts of ChinaˇŻs government desire to minimize their own exchange rate exposure ¨C and, to in effect, pass the currency risk to another part of the government -- is only one of many sources of tension among those now managing ChinaˇŻs foreign assets. The PBoC doesnˇŻt particularly want to manage a growing foreign portfolio, but if ChinaˇŻs foreign portfolio is going to grow, it would rather have the SAFE manage the funds than outsource management to the CIC. SAFE reports to the PBoC; the CIC is run by a former deputy finance minister and reports to the State Council.
The PBoCˇŻs concerns are not simply a reflection of its desire to defend its ˇ°turfˇ± ¨C or the tensions created by the fact that the CIC will pay more than SAFE, even if pays far less than international fund managers. The easiest way to improve the CICˇŻs relative performance is to shift some of its costs to the PBoC ¨C whether by delaying the purchase of foreign exchange until after the RMB has been allowed to rise or by selling the PBoC bonds at a below-market rate. Issuing bonds at a below-market interest rate to the PBoC though makes market-based sterilization more difficult, as the PBoC would need to take a loss if it sold the bonds in the market at their true market price. Conversely, SAFE could increase its relative returns by quietly buying say Australian stocks before the CIC makes a large allocation to Australia. SAFE and the PBoC are both represented on the CICˇŻs board, but the CICˇŻs ability to coordinate effectively with the rest of ChinaˇŻs government is still unproven.
The CIC itself faces daunting challenges. The CIC was intended to improve the returns China generates on its foreign assets. Yet it was created at a point in time when RMB appreciation is expected to accelerate, creating large currency losses. To generate the kind of returns needed to offset the RMBˇŻs appreciation ¨C the CIC could need returns, net of fees, as high as 14%. Generating such returns requires taking substantial risks. However, the governmentˇŻs tolerance for large losses, and that of the public, is not at all proven. The likely result: the CICˇŻs top management will take are those large risks explicitly authorized by the top levels of ChinaˇŻs government.
The CICˇŻs initial funding was largely used to purchase of Huijin (the central bankˇŻs bank recapitalization vehicle) and to complete the recapitalization of the large state banks. The CICˇŻs investment in Blackstone and Morgan Stanley are small relative to the CICˇŻs investment in the state banks. In 2008, though, the CIC will need to start investing large sums outside the state banking system. It is not yet clear that the CIC ¨C or for that matter the Politburo ¨C has an agreed strategy for investing these funds. Some want the CIC to focus on higher external fund managers and building up its in-house portfolio management skills; other want the CIC to support the outward expansion of ChinaˇŻs state firms.
The size of ChinaˇŻs portfolio is growing incredibly rapidly, and its currency regime assures that this portfolio will be concentrated in the stateˇŻs hands. The placement of this huge sum in foreign markets would be certain to generate controversy even if it were entirely invested in bonds. China is now so big that it impacts any market it touches. But as ChinaˇŻs state moves into investments that potentially give it more control, the tensions associated with ChinaˇŻs outward investment will only increase. The outward expansion of Chinese state firms ¨C who are likely to want to take controlling stakes ¨C likely will produce more controversy than even the CIC.
There is no sign yet that the Chinese foreign asset growth has peaked, and only ambiguous signs that the pace of increase in ChinaˇŻs broad foreign portfolio has slowed. ChinaˇŻs government ¨C in all of its guises ¨C will likely add $600b to its foreign portfolio in 2008, and perhaps increase its dollar holdings by $400b. ChinaˇŻs impact on the US financial market consequently could quickly be more important than its impact on the US goods market. The dollar value of US exports of financial assets to ChinaˇŻs government almost certainly now exceeds the dollar value of the goods the US imports from China.
China seems to have made a strategic decision to diversify the management of the governmentˇŻs assets across a range of state institutions ¨C the CIC, the state banks and even large state firms ¨C as well as to take on more risk. As a result, Chinese demand will soon have an impact on a broader range of financial markets. The large headline purchases of 2007 ¨C Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, Barclays (from the CDB) ¨C are only the beginning of this reallocation. China though has not made any comparable commitment to increase the transparency of its foreign investments ¨C and indeed, the combination of a desire not to overpay for foreign assets and the rivalry among ChinaˇŻs state investors has created pressures for less transparency. It is getting more difficult to track the total increase in ChinaˇŻs foreign assets, let alone the scale of Chinese flows to different markets.
ChinaˇŻs desire for higher returns could easily come into conflict with concerns about ChinaˇŻs impact on the market, or concerns about the extent of Chinese ownership of specific sectors. The scale of Chinese state investment is unprecedented. So far, though, China has not been willing to take concrete steps to address the global concerns its outward investment in non-traditional reserve assets is likely to generate.
·˘ĽţČËŁş<firstname.lastname@example.com> ĘŐĽţČËŁş <firstname.lastname@example.com> łËÍŁş·˘ËÍʱĽäŁş2008-01-22 12:56:45 +0800 ÓĹĎČĽ¶ŁşĆŐͨ±ęĚ⣺Paper on China's foreign assets and their management
Dear all,
I attach an interested paper by Brad Setser (from the US Council of Foreign Relations and RGE) called "What to do with over a half a trillion a year?--Understanding the changes in the management of China?s foreign assets."
The paper discusses the findings from Brad Setser's ongoing analysis of the composition of China's foreign assets build-up and its causes. In addition, the paper takes a careful look at the institutional changes that are taking place with regard to the management of these assets and the challenges that this poses for China's authorities.
(See attached file: How to manage half a trillion a year jan 15.doc)


text:
And The World Keeps GOING!
March 29, 2009 by Lecher.us
I am sitting here not sure what is quite going on here. I seem to be just lounging around lately with no sense of direction or purpose. There has been a lot of "growing up" that I have been having to do lately and it seems that in life you never stop these changes. Well enough about that…lol. So tomarrow I step into the world of Banking one more time as I have just recently accepted a position with Hilltop National Bank. I will be a Revolving Credit Representative, which means I will be involved with approving and denying credit card applications and such things. I think I am really going to enjoy it, but what the hey, if I dont love it, I am in LOVE with the hours, Monday thru Friday, 8-5. You cant beat that as a 19 year old college kid! Speaking of College I guess that I should start taking a look at the those classes at night and online. This should be interesting, I have always wanted to try online classes so I think this could be fun! My trip to England is still in the works, I have found a place and the airline, now I just have to find the money! lol. I am really excited about this, I think that I am going to have blast over and also have a lot of fun. I have always wanted to do something like that. Well Mom turned 40 yesterday, wow Ma your old!!! Speaking of her, gets me thinking how truly blessed I am to have such great parents. My mother is the most caring and loving person I have ever met in my life! I as a child have had to go through some stuff that know child or family should ever have to go through. Luckily for me there was a woman by my side every step of the way! From my very first surgrey to the most recent in December. This woman was my mother and without her I know I probably wouldn't have made it through so much. Mom has always been my rock and she has always tried to guide me in the right direction, even if it just made me mad! I LOVE this woman with everything in my heart! My father IS the greatest man alive, I say that with all that these two have given me. Lord knows that I have given these people their punishment (for their acts as children, lol) and more. We have gone through some pretty serious things over the years, but I have just recently realized that there are no two other people I would want to call Dad and Mom, besides Tony and Wendy Lecher. They are my favorite two people in the entire world. Well I am kind of hungry so I think I will go make a wrap and then maybe, just maybe I will try to organize my room! Love to all!
LOL – Prunes anyone?
March 29, 2009 by Steve Elledge
happy birthday MOM
March 28, 2009 by Lecher.us
well today is moms birthday.
she is 40 lol
i have only known her for 13 almost 14 years and she is amazing!
She is the best mom ever.
i love her so much!
she means the world to me!
this is just wat she means to me.
i dont really have the time to blog lol.
well i better keep saying lol.
havent been doing it lately lol.
going to the mall so mom can go shopping.
then to church.
then she is going to the chop house with a bunch of people.
all is good here.
love you
and have an amazing day.
talk to you later.
March 28, 1969
March 27, 2009 by Steve Elledge
** Where was I 40 years ago? Somewhere under the Pacific Ocean on a submarine patrol.
** Where was my wife? Tripler Army Hospital in Honolulu, HI. What was she doing there? Giving birth to our second baby girl, Wendy Rae.
** When did I learn of this arrival? April 1, 1969. It took 3 days before I received radio notification of Wendy's arrival. And when I finally did receive it I wasn't sure if it was an April Fools gag or the real deal. We took pleasure at sea at teasing each other and trying to get each others goat. Heck, I wasn't totally positive she was born, or whether she was male or female, until we surfaced a couple of weeks later and i could talk to Vic in person. We were really onery to one another – mind games were one of our major forms of entertainment when we were out there and out of contact for 65 – 70 days.
** Anyway, when I finally did get back to Oahu and met Wendy she wasn't too fond of me. She had already been pretty spoiled and acclimated to her mother, grandmother, and sister. In fact, whenever I tried to hold her she would go ballistic!
** I remember one day shortly after my return we needed formula or diapers or something. We drove to the commissary, Wendy was content so Vic left her with me in the car while she ran into the store. As soon as she handed Wendy to me and went in Wendy got restless, then she got mad, then she began to scream. She turned purple! I'll never forget the way a lady that pulled into the parking spot next to us looked at me. I know she thought i was mistreating her. If that would have happened in today's world i would have likely been arrested for child abuse. I "think" Wendy is finally out of that phase and a little more tolerant of her old man.
** Wendy is an awesome daughter, a great mother who with her husband Tony have created one strong, vibrant family unit. I could not be more proud (tears in my eyes while I type, I am really getting emotional in my old age).
** And yes – there were moments during the years when I wondered if it would ever come together like it has but I think I always knew it could. Wendy is a strong minded individual, has always been kind of a nonconformist in a good kind of way, and has not always followed the norm. That's what makes Wendy special – she brings a new perspective to things but blends that new slant with strong values and beliefs. Her children are a marked reflection of what Wendy brings to the world = personality, compassion, love, strength, joy, and occasionally a little bit of the unexpected. And Yah Tony – I know you had a part in it too! 🙂
** Anyway – she's 40 now in case you didn't know! I'm betting she has another 40 – 50 ahead of her and I can't wait to see the second half! If it's anywhere near as good as the first 40 you don't want to miss it! Stay tuned….
Happy Birthday Pooh Bear! I love you very much!
The Dad
snow day
March 27, 2009 by Lecher.us
Yesterday it started to snow but we ended up having to go to school. there was one point that i looked out the window and i saw nothing but white. it was a white out! and then around 9:50 the principal came on and anounced school was going to end at 11:35. so we stayed in our third period class tell the bell and then i went to lunch for like 10 minutes. and nate came to get me. today at 5:30 the district said that there was no school today so we have a snow day today. it is my third one of them. one in first at my old house and then 2 here.
Ok so my phone was ringing and so i looked at it and it was bee! i answered and it sounded like something was wrong so i asked him if something was wrong and he was no…he was happy…he got the job at hilltop in casper. i just thought it was funny cause he called me and asked for mom. hey thanks for showing the love lol. well i havent really been on here for awhile cause it has been a hard couple weeks.
It is so different now. so i was out shoveling and i opened the door and i was like wait shut it before casey gets out and then it hit me that my little baby is in a box:( she wont run away. i think that was the hardest time during this snow experince is knowing that casey wasnt coming out to play.
Anyways on to some good news. volleyball i am playing jv setter and i am starting everygame and havent came out yet. and so varstiy is playing a 6-2 and jv is playing a 4-2 and the varsity coach came over to me and he said that varsity isnt doing good with the 6-2 and he said they may go to a 4-2 and if they do he wants me to be the main setter for varsity cause i have the skill and i am athletic and i can dump the ball over if i need to. i thought that was some really good news.
well everyone in this household is doing good. got to go and finish getting ready
Q109 – Tough Quarter for Dogs
March 26, 2009 by Ryan Elledge
Tonight, a fellow employee at Aplus.net is spending her last night with her dog, Dru. I just learned on Facebook about 4 or 5 weeks ago that Tracey Seib had an English Mastiff. I think I must have posted something about Hoover or somehow she ran across his pictures on my site. Anyway, she told me she had a 10 1/2 year old male English Mastiff named Dru. Just a week or two later, she learned that Dru had terminal cancer… a lump developed rapidly in his leg, and she was forced with the dreaded decision of what to do. Sadly, it came to her having to make the decision to put Dru down, and she scheduled the date just a week ago to take place tomorrow, March 27th. It has become very clear that Dru is a major part of Tracey's life, just like Hoover is in my life. I have lost sleep and been very uneasy the past few weeks because Hoover is having a leg problem, has developed a small bump on his leg, and hasn't been eating quite right. The bump on his leg, combined with the timing of Tracey finding out about Dru has weighed heavily on my mind. Fortunately for me, Hoover is eating better and his blood tests came back indicating no issues. Tomorrow, he begins new medication to hopefully help his leg, else we will have to have some x-rays taken with him sedated — something I don't want to do. But for me, I am so fortunate because Hoover is in good health, yet his "brother" Dru is spending his final night (for now, at least) with Tracey. Last night I got out of bed and went and layed down with Hoover and thought hard about what Tracey is going through, and how someday that very well be me. I know Dru has been getting extra special attention from Tracey these past two weeks, and I was pleased to read on her Facebook page just moments ago that Dru has been enjoying some cheeseburgers and chicken nuggets, while popcorn and ice cream await him later this evening. My thoughts and prayers are with Tracey and Dru tonight… it will be a tough night for Tracey, followed by many tough days ahead, but Dru will leave this earth tomorrow having had a very good life and knowing that he was loved.
Dru and Tracey
This follows just two weeks after my sister Wendy and her family had to go through the exact same situation with their dog, Casey. Casey was 13 years old and had a tremendous life and brought joy to my sister, my brother-in-law Tony, my nephews Brandon, Nathan and Keegan, and my niece Courtney. Of course, she was a great dog to her extended family as well, and it will be hard next time I am in Fort Collins (in less than 2 months to celebrate Nathan's pending graduation — you will be graduating, won't you Nate?) Won't get to see that cute little dog Casey-Casey. She, too, was diagonsed with cancer, but she made it on drugs and love for about a year before they had to make the ultimate decision to let Casey go before the pain was too much. Like Tracey and Dru tomorrow, they had the act performed at their home with the whole family there.
Casey Casey
Aside from Dru and Casey, my parents lost one of their two pugs, Maggie, just a few months ago. Unlike Dru and Casey, Maggie died unexpectedly when she went in to get her teeth cleaned. She was, so it seems, in good health, but they had to sedate her to do the procedure and she went into cardiac arrest. This is why I am trying hard to see if we can get Hoover healed without getting sedated xrays. Unlike Tracey and my sister's family, my mom and dad didn't get to say goodbye to Maggie… they didn't get an opportunity to come-to-grips with it. In some ways, I think that's good… I know when my day comes and I depart this earth, I want it to be sudden and quick, just like Maggie's passing … a passing with no suffering. But, on the flip side, not getting to spend time saying goodbye… eating cheeseburgers and chicken nuggets… is something that you hate to think about missing out on.
Maggie Moo
I should mention, too, that though I don't remember all the details about what my friend Shawn Porter told me (sorry Shawn, I *think* I may have had a few pre-birthday drinks when we talked last week), I know he lost his lab this year, too. I do remember him telling me how hard it is to explain to his daughter, and I know someday, I may be in that same place, too.
Time helps heal all wounds, but quarter one, 2009 sure has been a tough one for my family and friends when it comes to their four legged family members. My thoughts are with them all, and it is great to know that I am not the only nut in this world who loves his pet as if it were his child. Here's to the four legged family members and those that have cared so much for them. Hang in there, Tracey, and though I didn't get to meet Dru, give him a hug for me.
KC & Denver left out in the cold?
March 26, 2009 by Steve Elledge
Updated: March 32, 2009
Steelers to lose Super Bowl Trophies
Pittsburgh, PA. The Super Bowl XLIII Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the only team to win six titles, will soon be losing half of those trophies. After a meeting between NFL Commissioner Rodger Gadel and President Barack Hussein Obama, Obama decided to redistribute half of their Steeler Super Bowl victories and trophies to less fortunate teams in the league.
"We live everyday in the country that invented the Super Bowl." said Obama "We are not about to lose this Great American tradition in the wake of these difficult times." Obama's plan calls for the Steelers, who are a successful NFL team, to give half of their Super Bowl trophies to teams that are not successful or have not been as successful as the Steelers. "The Detroit Loins are just as much a part of the same fiber of the NFL as the Steelers and they should, no rather will, be entitled to a Super Bowl Trophy as well." Obama explains in his plan that he has imposed on Godel and the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, who by virtue of hard work, excellent team play, stellar draft choices, responsible investing of free agents, careful hiring of coaches and excellent community service and commitment to their fans, has prospered greatly during the past 30 years and have won six Super Bowl Trophies. But President Barack Hussein Obama's plan calls for the Pittsburgh Steelers to carry the larger burden of the NFL's less successful teams. Obama went on to further proclaim, "In these difficult times we are all in this to work together. We must reclaim the NFL Championship Dream for every team, for every city and for every fan."
"My plan will not affect 31 of the 32 teams in the league." Obama assures. That's over 95 percent of the teams in the NFL will not have to worry about loosing any Super Bowl Trophies. "The worst teams in the NFL and the teams that can't seem to get a break and win a championship will no longer have to worry about going without a title." Obama promises. "We are a country and league of hope. We all need to make a change. It does not matter the color of the teams uniforms, the personal decisions that the teams make or their performance but rather if they are a member of this great American league."
The Super Bowl XLIII trophy will be redistributed to the 0-16 Detroit Lions. Through no fault of their own incompetence, the Lions could not manage a victory all season and this trophy will help ease the pain of their lack of performance and give them hope once again. The redistribution of Super Bowl XL trophy will go directly to the Steeler's division rival the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals who also have fallen on hard times have never won a Super Bowl. This victory will bring a smile to hundreds of Bengal fans all over the world as they can now celebrate. Finally, one of the Steeler's two Super Bowl victories over the Dallas Cowboys will go back to the Cowboys since the league needs to provide hope in the face of difficulty and provide hope in the face of uncertainty. This is a heavy burden for the Steelers but together we can all prosper.
All hope is not lost for Pittsburgh fans, Barack Hussain Obama has another plan in place. Obama has meet with MLB and commissioner Bud Selig on a similar plan. The New York Yankees will redistribute two of their world series trophies to the Pittsburgh Pirates as a supplement to their losing 16 straight seasons and counting. This plan will help stimulate the Pirates and enable them to regain the American Dream. Barack Hussain Obama will be meeting with the NHL and Michael Phelps in the upcoming weeks as this issue is high on his agenda for "Hope and Change."
Obama provides hope to NFL teams. Steelers must now share their wealth and fruits of their success and hard work.
March 26, 2009 by Steve Elledge
Wow — we are getting pounded again this morning. Second blizzard this week.
Miserable out there! My timing has been both good and bad ….. the good thing has been that I pretty much scheduled this week in Casper – no highway trips – and a good thing because I would have had to cancel a couple of days this week. The bad is …… I don't have any tradeshows scheduled for this week in Orlando, or Anaheim, or St. Lucia! Bad timing Steve.
Well, the big O did his press conference night before last and moved American Idol to last night & tonite. I did a comparison and in my humble opinion the worst performance on Idol last night was far superior to anything I heard on the Big O Show. Side note – Did you realize that if Oprah was wed to Obama her initials would be O – O (as in Oh Oh). LOL – I'm on top of it today arent I. I was awake most of the night so need your forgiveness for my poor humor. I sure have had my share of sleeping problems the past few weeks – I wake up for a trip to the bathroom or a restless dog or whatever – and there is no way I can get back to sleep. Mind wanders all over the place. I got up last night and did a little Facebooking around 2. How come none of my "friends" were on line?
I am also just a touch bored with being in the office all week. BUT – not so bored that I am going to venture out in this weather.
Time for me to do something constructive – sorry for just taking up space today – really no big issues to blog about.
The Dad
Comment on Did I Hear That Right? by Steve
March 24, 2009 by Ryan Elledge
My favorite was when he was asked why it took him two days to come out with an opinion on the AIG Bonuses and he said "I like to know what I'm talking about before I open my mouth"! LOL
That pretty much indicates he didn't know what his package had in it when he pushed it's immediate passage eh?
This is scarey stuff!
Did I Hear That Right?
March 24, 2009 by Ryan Elledge
President Obama just said, and I quote (I have left out the umm's):
We don't want a situation in which some countries are making extraordinary efforts and other countries aren't [on improving the global economy] with the hope that somehow the countries that are making those important steps lift everybody up."
Maybe I am completely off base here, but does this not contradict to the core what Obama is trying to legislate right here in our homeland? Where the upper class and businesses [the countries that make the extraordinary effort] take care of everyone else's problems [the countries that don't]?
Certainly I am not trying to imply that anyone not in the upper class or businesses don't do their part, but I think you should see the contradiction here. Of course, again, I may be completely off base….

subset: commoncrawl


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The Life-Sized City TV Series
While Copenhagenize Design Co. focuses on working with client cities around the world, our CEO, Mikael Colville-Andersen, is embarking on an exciting new project in parallel with his work in our Copenhagen office. Shooting has begun on his new tv series The Life-Sized City. With his series, Mikael hopes to bring citizen urbanism into the living rooms of city dwellers all over the world. With rising urbanization, our cities are in focus more than ever. For the first time in almost a century, we are looking at the development of our urban centres in a new and exciting way.
For 7000 years, ever since cities were first formed, they have been fantastic theatres for human activity. Yet for the better part of the last 80 years, our perception of cities changed. They were suddenly regarded as a series of mathematical models that required engineering to make them function.
Slowly but surely, we are once again focusing on cities as life-sized urban spaces. We are witnessing the re-emergence of cities that are attractive, healthy, interesting and efficient. Cities that do not leave us feeling awestruck and insignificant with their height and girth, but that rather inspire us at street level. They are, quite simply, Life-Sized Cities.
No city is perfect, of course. But some are farther advanced than others. Mikael will explore cities around the world and, instead of pointing fingers at their glaring flaws, we will seek out their pockets of life-sized goodness.


text: Hi all, I have never really understood what the volume reading on my amp actually means ie I always listen to my films with a volume of -7db. What does the -7 actually mean in terms of volume? Do all amps use the sames standard? What is the reference volume that the home cinema crowd usally listen at? Any help would be most welcome!! Cheers Paulh.


text:
New Details In Train Accident That Killed Springfield Man
54-year-old Michael Gray from Springfield was hit by a train as he jogged across the train tracks at 9th and Ash Streets Tuesday night.
Gray was sent to Memorial Medical Center where he was later pronounced dead.
Railroad Safety Specialist Chip Pew investigates all deaths involving a train in Illinois.
Pew says the investigation shows that Gray misjudged the speed of the train.
"It appears as though that people get fooled by the speed and distance of that approaching train because of the background it is very difficult for the eye to get any depth," Pew said.
Federal regulations allow trains to go a maximum of 10 miles per hour in that area. The train was operated by Norfolk Southern who says it can take a mile or more to stop a train. Because of the time it takes to stop, a locomotive engineer who suddenly sees someone on the tracks cannot stop quickly.


text:
Tiny homes a liberating move for some
LANCASTER, Pa.: Beth Sterling of Holtwood loves tiny houses. Her Facebook account often has photos of the charming, mini homes, with Sterling's admiring, positive comments about them.
"I have always been drawn to tiny homes," she says. "Tiny homes shout out `organization, tranquility, peace, creativity' to me. I am, I have been told, an `old soul,' so I am truly drawn to rustic-looking tiny homes like log cabins, tiny homes on wheels with wood siding."
She finds the green, less materialistic aspect, as well as the ease of cleaning, appealing. "I really long for a simplistic home."
Sterling currently lives with her husband, Peter, and daughter Hannah, in a 900-square-foot home. "So, not really that big but bigger than a tiny home," she says.
Her family emphatically does not share her interest in small space living, she says with a laugh.
As the owner, with her husband, of PB Sterling WoolNook and Mill LLC, Sterling is surrounded by fiber. She is an avid spinner, weaver and knitter, with spinning wheels, looms and a fiber stash to show for it.
When asked how all this will fit into the tiny home of her dreams, she admits, with a laugh, "Well, it wouldn't fit into my tiny house, but it would fit into my tiny studio right next door. With my raised bed gardens, bird houses and bird feeders in between."
"Most prospective tiny homes clients are looking for a house that they can design to their unique individual lifestyle to maximize efficiency and space for a fair price," says James Stoltzfus, who along with his wife, Rosemary, runs Liberation Tiny Homes in Ephrata.
"I am the founder, and I wear many hats at this point," he says. "My titles are entrepreneur, manager, sales, marketing and anything else that needs to be done."
Rosemary does a lot of the bookkeeping and also helps with "vision oriented details." They launched their business in July 2015.
"We have completed two houses and have four in production, in various stages of construction," Stoltzfus says.
Tiny home owners, he says, "want freedom of debt, freedom to travel, freedom of location, having the option to pursue dreams versus working a thankless 9-to-5 job.
"This is why we named our company Liberation Tiny Homes. Our vision is to guide clients to a more liberating lifestyle."
It's a lifestyle that the Stoltzfuses envision for themselves someday. "a small home in the country in the future."
Tiny homes, he says, have "definitely hit the mainstream and I would think it has to level out at some point as it is growing exponentially right now. I believe this trend will probably continue for a few years."
Stoltzfus predicts the mainstream intrigue will drop off in the near future, but the "true tiny house community" will remain strong for years to come.
"This has been a slow-growing community that started around 15 years ago and it was not until around a year or two ago that it really started picking up steam after TV networks and news sources started reporting stories on them," he says.
Tiny homes are most popular among adventurous younger couples or singles under 30 without children, or older people looking to downsize and simplify their lives, Stoltzfus says.
Stoltzfus says 55 people attended an informational meeting he held in January for anyone interested in owning a tiny home.
He's seen prices range from $20,000 to $90,000, but he estimates the average is between $40,000 and $50,000.
According to thetinylife.com: "The typical American home is around 2,600 square feet, while the size of tiny houses is between 100 and 400 square feet."
Intrigued by the idea of a tiny home? "You'll have to get rid of things, be ruthless," says Stoltzfus.
Lisa Ackerman has been ruthless in preparing to move into her tiny home from a three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath townhome.
She laughs when she says during a phone interview, "Do you hear that echo? It's because I've gotten rid of almost all my furniture."
Ackerman hopes to move into her tiny home by February, with plans for it to be located in Lancaster (or perhaps Berks) County. Her tiny home, which is being built on a 24-foot wheel base, is being constructed by Liberation Tiny Homes.
"We're customizing it with some reclaimed wood," she says, her excitement evident in her voice.
Ackerman worked in the corporate world for 25 years but was laid off in April 2015. Unlike many who do not know what to do when found jobless, Ackerman just stepped up her passion – a part-time job she'd started a few years earlier.
"I've always loved golden retrievers and grooming them. When my daughter started college, I trained as a groomer and am also a certified canine massage therapist (and equine sports therapist)."
When she compared looking for another job in the corporate world or moving her passion from part time to full time, it was an easy decision.
"I can make people happy with my dog-grooming service, The Golden Touch," Ackerman says. "I don't even call it a job. It makes people happy and me happy."
The dogs are happy, too. Ackerman travels to people's homes and even attends Golden play dates, where owners socialize and the dogs romp, until it's their turn to be groomed.
When she was deciding what else she needed to do with her new life, a friend mentioned the tiny home shows on TV. "What a concept, I thought."
When she told her mother her plans, she said, "Well, if anyone can do it, you can.
"I get two reactions when I tell people," Ackerman says. "One, is this glazed look as they try to contemplate it. The other is `Oh. My. Gosh. That sounds like fun!' "
The tiny home also will allow her to live closer to her client base, she says.
Ackerman will be living in her tiny home with her two golden retrievers, Kenzee, 13, and Harper, 3. "I'm looking for someplace with land, so they can run a bit," she says.
Now, living in her roomy townhouse, they only get walked on a leash.
Another new concept in tiny home living is a "granny pod." Some offer a one-room living space (giving the family member some "space"); others are equipped like a hospital room, complete with monitors for "discreet" viewing of a family member if there are health issues.-AP


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text: Greg Koukl, a Christian apologist, made a video recently in which he said God's existence is obvious and atheists are just trying to suppress the truth. He compared us to people trying to hide a beach ball underwater — it's trying to come up and we're doing everything we can to hold it back. (He's wrong, of course. Atheists say there's no beach ball at all. We're not fighting the truth; we believe in a very different truth altogether.) Koukl's comments are indicative of someone who's never talked to an atheist before.


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Food labels often contain misleading tricks which trick us into consuming foods full of chemicals. Popular tea brands also use this to trick their customers into thinking that their products are better than their counterparts.
Many companies have been found to cover up the low quality of their tea. Luckily, there are still brands that use natural ingredients and which label their products properly.
Most tea brands such as Tea Forte, Mighty Leaf, Trader Joe's, Tetley, Allegro, Lipton, Celestial Seasonings, Tazo, Teavana, Twinings, Yogi, Bigelow and Republic of Tea contain high levels of toxins, pesticides and fluoride which can harm your health.
Cheap tea bags contain fluoride and pesticides
As most non-organic tea plants are not washed during preparation, pesticide residues stay on them in quantities well above the allowed limits. According to a recent study, cheap tea brands contain enough fluoride to endanger your life and increase the risk of serious diseases.
Some of these tea brands contain 7 parts per million fluoride, while only 4 ppm is allowed. This is terrifying as fluoride is very harmful and can accumulate in your body for years. The plant accumulates fluoride as it grows, so older herbs and their leaves contain more of it. Low-quality teas are often made of these leaves and are far more harmful.
What about decaffeinated tea?
As it turns out, decaf tea is even more dangerous. This is why you should stick to white tea and always buy organic tea for home. Buy loose leaf tea and brew your tea from scratch instead of using bagged tea.
Paper tea bags have been treated with epichlorohydrin, a compound used in the production of epoxy resins and as a pesticide. According to the National Institute for Occupation Safety and Health, it is a dangerous carcinogen. When it comes in contact with water, epichlorohydrin hydrolyzes to 3-MCPD, an organic chemical compound that is highly carcinogenic and genotoxic to humans. It has been related to lowered fertility and suppressed immune function.
Antioxidant-rich teas won't make a huge difference in balancing the chemicals and additives, but looking at the chart below will help you identify what tea brands you should avoid.


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OfficeIQ Insights
Get a first look at OfficeIQ Insights — an innovative tool that will provide desk, conference room and office utilization data for smarter facilities management and a more connected workplace.
Sands Expo Convention Center
Las Vegas, NV
Pairing software innovation with Humanscale's expert design, OfficeIQ is the ultimate in office intelligence and the next step in changing traditional offices into active, intelligent workspaces. OfficeIQ makes furniture work for people and helps users make healthier decisions throughout their day — not just in the office.
Get a first look at OfficeIQ Insights — an innovative tool that will provide desk, conference room and office utilization data for smarter facilities management and a more connected workplace.
This unique web-based tool educates users on basic ergonomic principles that can be put into practice immediately. Streamlining the assessment process, ErgoIQ transforms workspaces for long-term health and comfort.
The next generation in portable sit/stand solutions. QuickStand Eco is sleeker, easier to use and comprised of more sustainable materials than ever before. Featuring simple setup, portability and near effortless adjustability, QuickStand Eco transforms ordinary desktops into healthy, active workspaces.
QuickStand Under Desk allows users to seamlessly alternate between sitting and standing postures without interrupting workflow. Offering effortless functionality and a sleek, modern design, QuickStand Under Desk is an understated workspace wellness solution that blends into any environment.
M/Connect 2 is a USB Type-C and USB 3.0 dual-video docking station that eliminates cable clutter and offers high-speed charging and easy access to user ports. For users who require charging but are unable to plug in devices for security reasons, M/Power offers convenient, high-speed USB Type-A and Type-C charging for mobile devices.
Experience a workspace that will have you bouncing off the walls! We invite you to stop by Booth #43123 and strike a pose or two in this must-see photo opportunity.
3:30 — 4:30PM January 9, 2018
Fitness Tech Summit
Venetian, Level 4, Lando 4304


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Inspired by our Male-Dar post below, here's a clip from the series finale where Mr. Big channels his own radar and pays Carrie a visit right before she moves to Paris. According to some of your comments, he just wants to get laid though. Their fight is followed by their happy Paris reunion for those of you that want to believe in happy endings (guys, hate to break it to you, but there's no massage action in the below video.)
TGIF, everyone!


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Resolve to Break these Bad Habits that can Damage Your Teeth
When making New Year's resolutions, many people focus on health-related changes, such as losing weight or eating healthier. But don't forget that your oral health is directly linked to your overall health, and halting bad habits like teeth grinding or smoking can help protect both your dental health and systemic health.
- Posted on: Feb 25 2015