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Dr. Gaurav Sinha, Associate Professor of Geography, co-authored a reference ontology on mapping depression landforms such as basins, valleys and canyons as part of the Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography book series.
Sinha was awarded a grant of $41,000 from the United States Geological Survey to fund his sabbatical research efforts this year. Sinha will help researchers at the Center of Excellence for Geospatial Information Science for his proposed project titled "Ontological Delineation and Extraction of Terrain Landforms." He will work with a small team of researchers from CEGIS and associated universities who will collectively design new methods and software for automated extraction of landforms and terrain features from digital topographic databases.
This collaboration will significantly advance Sinha's long-term research on how people commonly conceptualize landscape features, especially landforms, and how such knowledge can be applied to develop GIS software for interpreting and mapping people's natural language search expressions about topographic features.
The recently published reference ontology "A Reference Landform Ontology for Automated Delineation of Depression Landforms from DEMs" appears in the Proceedings of Workshops and Posters at the 13th International Conference on Spatial Information Theory (COSIT 2017), L'Aquila, Italy, Sept. 4-8.
Abstract: This reference landform ontology is intended to guide automated delineation of landforms from digital elevation models (DEMs) and semantic information retrieval about landforms. Since only form related information is available from DEMs, the categories of this reference ontology are defined based only on morphological criteria. The choice of the landform categories is informed by ethnophysiographic and spatial cognition research. The proposed taxonomy is work in progress and reflects the current focus on automated delineation and mapping of depression landforms (e.g., basins, valleys and canyons).
Co-authors are Samantha T. Arundel of the USGS Center of Excellence for Geographic Information Science, Kathleen Stewart of the University of Maryland, David Mark of the University at Buffalo SUNY, Torsten Hahmann of the University of Maine, Boleslo Romero of the University of California Santa Barbara, Alexandre Sorokine of Oak-Ridge National Laboratory, Lynn Usery of the USGS, and Grant McKenzie of the University of Maryland.
Geostatistics for Remediation of Heavy Metals in Neighborhood Soil
Sinha also co-authored an article on "Determining site-specific background level with geostatistics for remediation of heavy metals in neighborhood soils" in the AIMS Environmental Science journal. His co-authors are Tammy Milillo and Joseph Gardella of the Department of Chemistry, University at Buffalo-SUNY.
Abstract: The choice of a relevant, uncontaminated site for the determination of site-specific background concentrations for pollutants is critical for planning remediation of a contaminated site. The guidelines used to arrive at concentration levels vary from state to state, complicating this process. The residential neighborhood of Hickory Woods in Buffalo, NY is an area where heavy metal concentrations and spatial distributions were measured to plan remediation. A novel geostatistics based decision making framework that relies on maps generated from indicator kriging (IK) and indicator co-kriging (ICK) of samples from the contaminated site itself is shown to be a viable alternative to the traditional method of choosing a reference site for remediation planning. GIS based IK and ICK, and map based analysis are performed on lead and arsenic surface and subsurface datasets to determine site-specific background concentration levels were determined to be 50 μg/g for lead and 10 μg/g for arsenic. With these results, a remediation plan was proposed which identified regions of interest and maps were created to effectively communicate the results to the environmental agencies, residents and other interested parties.


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2nd Annual Support Our Troops Poker Run June 26th & 27th Lake of the Ozarks Benefit to support Operation Homefront Details can be found at: http://LakeOzarksPokerRun.com or http://midwestboatparty.com
You will find Lake of the Ozarks information and Lake of the Ozarks lodging, including Vacation Rentals by owner, Resorts, Bed and Breakfasts, Inns, Hotels, Motels and Camping. We provide you with Lake of the Ozarks Maps, gas prices on and off the water, transportation to and from the Lake. www.NauticalThunderMagazine.com, www.NauticalReflections.com
Thursday, April 2, 2009
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Liege, Belgium – Time trial stalwart Fabian Cancellara destroyed the world's best riders completing the short 6.4 km prologue an amazing seven seconds faster than overall favorite Bradley Wiggins.
Last years Tour de France winner Cadel Evans finished in a disappointing 13th place overall, 10 seconds behind Wiggins and 17 seconds behind Cancellara.
World Time Trial Champion Tony Martin had a disappointing finish due to a bike change, however, he appeared to be in top form and will certainly be a factor in the other time trial stages.
Young American rider Tejay van Garderen finished in a suprising 4th place overall and will wear the white jersey as the Best Young Rider.
Sylvain Chavanel set the early time to beat and held on to finish in third place and round out the podium with Cancellara and Wiggins.
1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan 0:07:13
2 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07
3 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-Quickstep
4 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10
5 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:11
6 Brett Lancaster (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team
7 Patrick Gretsch (Ger) Argos – Shimano 0:00:12
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:13
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:00:15


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Court Rules for Insurer in Lawsuit Based on Claims of Bad Faith
For the second time in as many days, the courts have considered the question of an insurer's legal responsibility to act in "good faith" toward its insureds. "Good faith" is defined as an informed judgment based on honesty and diligence supported by evidence the insurer knew or should have known at the time the insurer made a decision on the claim.
In Maryland, a third-party insurer may be liable for "bad faith" dealings with its insured when the insurer wrongfully refuses to settle a claim against the insured within policy limits. It's not a new concept. The Maryland Court of Appeals first recognized a tort action based upon an insurer's wrongful failure to settle a claim against its insured within policy limits in a 1963 case. The court held that the plaintiff had set forth a viable cause of action in light of the insurer's exclusive control of investigation, settlement and defense of the claim against the insured.
Recently, in Joseph P. Hughes, Sr. as assignee of Jarrett Pratt v. Progressive Direct Insurance Company, Inc., the United States District Court for the District of Maryland dismissed a lawsuit against Progressive Direct Insurance Company, Inc. alleging that it acted in bad faith in handling an insurance claim resulting from an auto accident.
Jarrett Pratt broadsided a vehicle driven by Joseph P. Hughes, Sr. in Baltimore City in July 2006. Hughes was severely injured. He filed a lawsuit in January 2009 in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City against Pratt for his injuries and against his insurer, GEICO Insurance, for uninsured motorist coverage benefits.
Pratt was insured by Progressive. Pratt's insurance policy with Progressive provided coverage up to $100,000 per accident.
While the lawsuit was pending, but before it went to trial, Progressive offered its $100,000 policy limits to Hughes. Hughes alleged that Pratt's attorney told Progressive the case was worth policy limits in July 2009, but that Progressive did not offer its $100,000 policy limit to Hughes until 2010. According to Hughes, GEICO did not respond in writing within 60 days as required by Maryland law. As a result, Hughes sought to enforce settlement with a "Motion to Enforce Settlement." Progressive did not participate in the motion. In response to the motion, GEICO claimed that an email its counsel sent to Hughes qualified as notice under Maryland law. Hughes disagreed, arguing that the email did not constitute notice under the statute. The court ultimately decided that the email amounted to proper notice.
The jury returned a verdict for $725,000, which was reduced to $720,000 because of the cap on non-economic damages. GEICO paid $500,000 of the verdict, satisfying the contract claim against it.
In April 2012, Hughes, as Pratt's assignee, filed a complaint for "bad faith" against Progressive in Baltimore City Circuit Court. The case was removed to federal court. Hughes claimed, among other things, that the insurer failed to join Hughes in his motion to enforce settlement against GEICO, failed to appeal the court's ruling denying the motion, failed to attend a court-ordered mediation before trial, failed to pressure or encourage GEICO to resolve the claim within policy limits, etc.
Progressive filed a motion to dismiss, arguing that Hughes's complaint failed to state a claim upon which relief could be granted because Progressive offered its policy limits in settlement before the trial. The federal trial court agreed with Progressive.
No Maryland case has been cited in which the Court of Appeals held that an insurer that offered its policy limits in settlement of a claim prior to trial could be held liable for bad faith, the court said. In this instance, the court said, it was undisputed that Progressive offered its policy limits to settle the case prior to trial. Hughes said Progressive's failure to make the offer in 2010 constituted unreasonable delay. "While this may be true," the court said, "because Progressive ultimately did offer its policy limits before trial, and considering all the facts alleged in the amended complaint, the court finds that Hughes has not stated a claim for "bad faith" failure to settle as a matter of law."
As a result, the federal trial court dismissed the case with prejudice.
Joseph P. Hughes, Sr. as assignee of Jarrett Pratt v. Progressive Direct Insurance Company, Inc. was released on September 27, 2012.
Belsky, Weinberg & Horowitz has been fighting for the victims of negligence for many years. Call us at 410-234-0100 or email us for a free consultation and let us help you.


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Tier Two Therapist
Licensed Since: 2007
Advanced Trainings:
Myofascial Releasee
Deep Tissue
Sports Massage
Hot stone
Areas of Specialty:
What Clients are saying:
"I love my massage therapist, Sarah. I've been seeing her weekly for a sciatica hip injury and she helps to relieve my pain. Very knowledgable." -Dana H.
"I have always had a great experience at Oak Haven, the last few times I've had Sarah Hebert as a therapist and she is amazing. She has an uncanny ability to feel the areas that require work and apply just the right amount of pressure." -Rauly W.


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Then the Lord answered me and said: "Write the vision And make it plain on tablets, That he may run who reads it. (Hab. 2:2)
Sunday, June 3rd will be a great day in the life of The River church. We will be having our inaugural service in our new building that morning. God has instructed me to share the vision for the church. Come expecting to be challenged for He is able to do exceedingly abundantly above all the we ask or think (Eph. 3:20).


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Card for Freshly Made Sketches #75.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Happy Birthday Cake...
4 comments:
Fab. Great card WandaReplyDelete
So cute for a birthday! Thanks for joining us at FMS!ReplyDelete
Lovely birthday card Wanda! Love all that pink and the bling! Thanks for joining us this week at Freshly Made Sketches!ReplyDelete
Oooh, this is such a lovely birthday card!ReplyDelete
Thanks for joining us this week at Freshly Made Sketches!!!
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A 38 year old drug dealer received the maximum sentence of over 55 years (668 months) in prison Friday, for the shooting death a Yakima man back in January.
Bobby Ray Zapien was convicted of 1st degree murder on Monday. Zapien shot and killed Luis Gonzales as a suspected informant while Gonzales was in his driveway, working on his car.
Below is a press release from the Yakima County Prosecutor's Office regarding the sentencing:
Bobby Ray "Buzz" Zapien was sentenced today to a term of 668 months in prison for the shooting death of Luis Gonzalez. The shooting occurred in the 1000 block of 26th Avenue in the City of Yakima on January 15, 2010. Following a two week trial, the jury returned a verdict of guilty to the charged crime of First Degree Murder. The jury also found that Zapien had used a firearm during the commission of the murder.
During the sentencing hearing the Court heard from friends and family members regarding the impact of the murder. Deputy Prosecutor Alvin Guzman, who tried the case for the State, asked the court to impose the top of the standard range due to Zapien's lengthy criminal history; the impact on the family; lack of remorse; and the short period of time between Zapien's most recent release from prison and the murder.
The sentencing judge noted the casual nature in which the murder was committed, described as akin to going to the grocery store; the impact the murder had on the family and friends of Luis Gonzalez; and Zapien's lengthy criminal history as a basis for a sentence at the top of the sentencing range.


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Password Reset for MyMail can be done if you've forgotten your login information, or you know it but want to change it. Note that changing your MyMail password does not change your Passport York password. Note also that your MyMail username (the part before @yorku.ca) is the same as your Passport York username,
If you have forgotten your MyMail password or want to change it:
- Log in to Manage My Services (requires that you know your Passport York username and password)
- Click Electronic Mail on the left, then type your new password twice, then click Change Password.


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All the team at Pink Flamingo are super excited by the arrival of Poetic Licence Shoes new autumn / winter collection.
This is the first season we have had the privilege of stocking their beautiful designs.
Poetic Licence are the sister brand of Irregular Choice but their collections have a very different feel . Poetic Licence takes its influences from British culture, vintage fabrics and world inspiration. Their design team incorporates their love of things past into artfully modern designs to make extraordinary unique footwear.
Poetic Licence first launched as a brand in 2005 in London. The design team has since made their way to the south east coast of England to the delightful town of Brighton where they continue to provide unparalleled vintage - inspired footwear, which they sell all over the world.
The new Autumn / Winter collection has a classic colour palette featuring warm taupe's and chic monochrome with highlights of silver, electric blue and pumpkin orange.
Our favorite here at Pink Flamingo is the Downtown Darling Boot a very vintage style boot with a Victoriana feel in brown or black suede with a leather covered toe and heel. There is a wide satin orange or blue lace up the front of the boot placed in a colourful woven fabric with a striped seam. This boot has a zip fastening on the inside. Priced at £125.
The Downtown Darling boot would look great paired with the Lorelei Mac Coat by Darling Clothing. Priced at £89.99. Darling Clothing is another premium brand we stock at Pink Flamingo that exudes a vintage style.
If you are looking for an everyday heel to take you from work to play the Hot-to-trot shoe will do that in style. Featuring a comfortable heel and a taupe tweed fabric. It is finished off with a ruched silver ribbon and a bejeweled broach. This shoe has a unique vintage feel but still wouldn't look out of place in the office or on the dance floor. Priced at £69.99.
A staple throughout Poetic Licence collections is the Backlash Shoe Boot. This season features The Backlash is a navy blue leather with a check fabric detailing and a red satin lace trimmed with a contrasting scalloped seem. This shoe boot is very versatile and will add that vintage feel to any outfit! Priced at £89.99.
Poetic Licence Mission "Is to make every lady feel like a pin up girl" and we definitely believe you will in these fabulously vintage shoes.
Poetic Licence, Irregular Choice and Darling are all available on our website and at our Rochester and Whitstable boutiques.
Click to buy Pink Flamingo Boutique Website !
Click to buy Pink Flamingo Boutique Website !


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The Blog
Here you'll find the occasional coffee bean review, pieces on coffee travels & basically anything else about coffee.
Any new products or changes happening at Mendl's or around Phillip Island can be found right here.
COFFEE rEVIEWs
Our favourite single origin coffees will feature here with further information on our opinions & experiences with the bean.
coffee travels
The Mendl's team recently took a motorbike trip around Nepal, testing and sourcing different coffee beans from the Himalaya region. To see some of the images from our trip, click below!


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Andy's idea has now come to full fruition !
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
When MM met AFCB.
Late one night about two months ago - Andrew Weber, football culture connoisseur and founder of AFCB and Football Nomad came to MM with a splendid idea.
After many late nights designing, collaborating, 40,000 lines of chat, tantrums on my behalf and a few boozy coffees --
Andy's idea has now come to full fruition !
Andy's idea has now come to full fruition !
The AFCB Shop: home of the best unofficial Arsenal t-shirts, hoodies and stickers on the web.
The AFCB Shop combines football culture with modern fashion to produce shirts that look good, fit superbly and celebrate the unique culture of the Arsenal Football Club. Quality is very much the name of the game: all designs are printed on American Apparel products and are available in multiple colours and sizes for both men and women.
The AFCB Shop is the brainchild of AFCB editor Andrew Weber and graphic design company Moonshine Madness and new designs are released regularly. If you have any trouble navigating the store or purchasing the products you want, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.com.
Posted by Moonshine Madness at 11:28 AM
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|I missed showing you my September pictures last month so I've combined them.. Hopefully it isn't a huge overload of images!
|Treated myself way too much | iPad fun | September skies | I won @breezeybeee's giveaway, thank you! | Lost in a forest in the dark | Leap of faith | Me x 6 | Camping | Lexi dog | Waiting for my pub lunch | Paris | Eye or arm candy?! | Sock shopping | New earring | Nailz
|Could definitely audition for The Walking Dead | Snoozy Selma | Models Own sale buys | The most beautiful boots | Benefit freebies in InStyle mag | 3 for £6 in TK Maxx | River boat to Greenwich | The Cutty Sark | People having a casual lie down on the floor| We were bored | Haiii | Bug Eyes | New top | THE studded clutch | Neon leopard | Selma ♥s Primark bags
|Cheesecake treat | I sit there, Selma! | Long overdue washing of brushes | Shoe decisions | On a narrow boat | Swan | Philip Armstrong for Kellogg's scarf* | Mr Bumble, aw! | I moustache you a question.. | Karamel Sutra | So cosy | Our pumpkin
If you didn't know, I have Instagram now! (I got my oh so beautiful iPad) I've actually had it a while now but never got into using the app - I just use it to take snaps. But I'm going to give it a go so if you'd like to follow me my username is; SophieIsobel_ I think I have 1 follower, lol - so come and say hi! Also leave your names below as I don't follow anyone either! Much love,


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Jurby WaterTech International continues its fruitful cooperation with the Ekibastuz GRES-2 Power Plant (Pavlodar Region, the Republic of Kazakhstan). At the present time in the object, the company's technical specialists are finishing commissioning works. This set of equipment is intendended for provision of highly demineralized water for make-up of HP steam boilers at Ekibastuz GRES-1 and preparation of softened water for heat network makeup. The total plant capacity amounts to 480 m3/h.
It is appropriate to recall here that the equipment for this object was designed and manufactured at Jurby WaterTech International's own production facility in the city of Kaunas, Lithuania. The manufacture of equipment for Ekibastuz GRES-2 is one of the most large-scale projects our company executes in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan.


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Lifestyle Health & Fitness Center
800 North Battlefield Blvd.,
Chesapeake, VA 23320
Average ER wait time: 10 minutesMy Chart
Join us for our non-surgical Weight Management program, My Healthy Weigh, a nutrition, fitness and behavior change program taught by one of our registered dietitians and an exercise specialist. Over the course of eight weeks, participants meet weekly for exercise sessions, weigh-ins, waist measurements and food record reviews. Class topics include:
Session 1 - Getting Started
Session 2 - Changing Your Eating Habits
Session 3 - Meal Planning and Healthy Cooking
Session 4 - Dining Out
Session 5 - Stress Management and Stress Eating
Session 6 - It's Not Just Eating
Session 7 - Grocery Store Tour
Session 8 - Wrapping It Up
The price for this program is $200*, which includes eight weeks of classes, materials and a two month membership to the Lifestyle Center!
*Employees and Lifestyle Center members receive a discounted rate.
No upcoming dates


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Cee Lo Green deletes Twitter account after controversial rape tweets
Cee Lo Green has deleted his Twitter account after allegedly tweeting some controversial views on rape.
According to an article on BuzzFeed, the 39-year-old singer posted several comments about the subject on his social networking account on Tuesday before deleting the posts and his account, just days after he pleaded no contest to furnishing ecstasy to a 33-year-old woman.
In response to other Twitter users, the Bright Lights Bigger City hitmaker wrote: "If someone is passed out they're not even WITH you consciously! so WITH Implies consent
"People who have really been raped REMEMBER!!! (sic)"
But before deleting his account he wrote an apology, stating: "Let me 1st praise god for exoneration fairness & freedom! Secondly I sincerely apologise for my comments being taken so far out of context.
"I only intended on a healthy exchange to help heal those who love me from the pain I had already caused from this. Please forgive me as it..
"…was your support that got me thru this to begin with. I'd never condone the harm of any women. Thank you. (sic)"
Cee Lo's alleged comments come after he appeared at the Los Angeles District Attorney's office on Friday and pleaded no contest to one felony count of furnishing ecstasy to a female, after she accused him of slipping her the drug without her knowledge in July 2012.
The Voice USA mentor – real name Thomas DeCarlo Callaway – insisted they "shared" the drug, and he also entered a special plea in which he maintained his innocence in the case.
The singer was later placed on three years of formal probation and ordered to complete 360 hours of community service and attend 52 Alcoholics Anonymous/Narcotics Anonymous meetings.
He must return to court on 5 March 2015 for a progress report.
This comes after prosecutors rejected a rape charge against him in October 2013, in relation to the same incident, citing insufficient evidence.
Article and Image source: Channel24


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Emerge Girls
Emerge girls is a 12-week mentoring program for disengaged and at-risk young women lead by founder Jen Shaw and positive female mentors in the local community. The program focuses on empowering young women with essential life skills in nutrition and cooking, goal setting, budgeting and self- care as well as promoting positive self-esteem and creating a community amongst participants from past, current and future programs.
Participants are invited to undertake work experience in the Emerge food van during their participation in the program to provide workplace training and job confidence.
The program runs weekly for 2 ½ hours per session and participants are invited to drop in anytime to access mentors and resources in our dedicated youth space.
The program focuses on empowering young women
The program is open to 8 young women per intake aged between 14 – 19 who may be;
- Transitioning to independent living after foster or residential care
- Are disengaged or at risk of disengaging from education or training.
Exiting youth detention or under a youth justice order
- Undertaking acute mental health care
- Exiting rehab facilities
- Identify as having a need to undertake the program for best future results.


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4 guests maximum
60 m2
1 bedroom apartment
1 bathroom
1 double sofa bed
1 double bed
A few words about the apartment…
This 1 bedroom flat is located a few minutes' walk from Earl's Court and High Street Kensington tube Stations, which themselves provide an easy access to the City and many of its renowned landmarks. The flat is on the second floor of a typical London building, fitted with no lift, perfect for you to experience your stay like a real Londoner. And the cherry on the cake, you will be within walking distance from the Museums!
Check-in / Check-out
The standard check-in time is from 15:00 and the check-out by 11:00.
Arrivals and departures outside this standard time are always tried to be accommodated on request.
Refundable damage deposit upon arrival : £ 200.00 cash. The damage deposit will be returned at check-out.
For a late check-in between 18:00 and 09:00 there is an extra cost of £ 50.
Please note : non smoking, pets are not allowed, no parties please, no young groups
Please note that the check-in address is different than the apartment's address. If you wish to make the check-in at the apartment you have to arrange it at least 24h before your arrival.
Facilities and amenities
- Internet
- Pets allowed
- Smoking allowed
- International TV
- Air conditioning
- Heating
- Fan
- Bed linen
- Towels
- Baby cot
- Washing machine
- Dryer
- Dishwasher
- Microwave
- Oven
- Complete kitchenware
- Balcony
- Terrace
- Garden
- Swimming pool
- Parking
- Lift (apt. is on 1st floor)
Back to the top


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I announced earlier this month that my journal pages from my 2012 Mini Journal where published in the April Issue of Art Journaling Magazine. It's my first time having my pages published and I'm still over the moon with excitement.
I want to give a special shout out to some of my favorite creative mamas that are also featured in the magazine. Check out some of my favorites from the magazine.
Erin Leigh Batson
Renee Stien
Jennifer Frith
Shonna Bucaroff
Art Journaling Magazine can be found at Barnes & Noble and Micheal's or you can order a copy directly from Stampington.com.


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- All Areas
- Car Insurance
- Young Driver Insurance
- Breakdown Cover
- Home Insurance
- Travel Insurance
- Pet Insurance
- Business Insurance
- Customer Services
Your selected question
Q: How do I cancel my home insurance policy?
When you receive your policy documents you will have 14 days in which to cancel the policy if you no longer require the insurance. If you wish to cancel the policy please contact us on 03457 46 46 46^, lines are open from 8am-8pm Monday to Friday, from 8am-5pm on Saturday and from 9am-4pm on Sunday, or write to:
Co-op Insurance
General Insurance Operations Processing
P.O. Box 67
Gloucestershire GL17 0ZA.
If you cancel the policy within 14 days of receipt of the policy document the premium you have paid will be returned to you less a pro-rata charge for any time on cover.
To be entitled to a pro-rata refund of the premium paid, you must telephone us or write to us on or before the 14th day of receipt of the policy document and the cancellation effective date requested must be within this period.
If you cancel your policy after this time any refund of premium will normally be the premium paid less premium at our short period rates for the period the policy has been in force.


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Information on the activity
February 13, 2018 | 19 H 30
Each year, the McGill Symphony Orchestra presents a varied cross-section of orchestral music from early 18th century classics to celebrated contemporary composers. Its home venue is Pollack Hall, but it also performs regularly in venues such as the Église St. Jean-Baptiste and Montreal's remarkable Maison symphonique. High professional standards are required from every member of the orchestra, since one of its objectives is to prepare young musicians for successful auditions with major orchestras around the globe. Along with two performances each of six concert programs, the MGSO's annual activities include collaborations with Opera McGill, winners of the School's concerto competitions, distinguished members of the Schulich School of Music faculty, and with internationally acclaimed artists such as Ida Haendel, Joseph Rouleau and Jane Archibald, among others.
Kent Nagano, guest conductor
Andrew Wan, violin
Richard Wagner, Siegfried-Idyll, WWV 103
Leonard Bernstein, Serenade (after Plato's Symposium)
Robert Schumann, Symphony No. 1 in B-flat major, Op. 38
In collaboration with the Orchestre symphonique de Montréal


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- Frankfurt four points off relegation play-off place.
- Eagles have lost their last three in the league.
- Mainz's 3-2 defeat to Köln was their first loss in four.
Rhine-Main bragging rights could hold added significance for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FSV Mainz 05 on Sunday (kick-off: 17:30CEST/15:30GMT).
Download the free Bundesliga app here!
Second-bottom Frankfurt were cast six points adrift of outright safety following their 3-0 defeat to Bayer 04 Leverkusen coupled with relegation play-off spot incumbents SV Werder Bremen's rousing 3-2 victory over VfL Wolfsburg last weekend, and can scarcely afford any further slip-ups as they bid to avoid dropping down a tier for the fifth time in their history.
Mainz's prognosis is much more favourable, despite surrendering a two-goal lead in their 3-2 defeat to 1. FC Köln on Matchday 30. The sixth-placed 05ers currently occupy the final UEFA Europa League qualifying berth, but do so as one of three sides locked on 45 points, only four behind fourth-in-the-table Hertha Berlin.
Matchday 14 rewind: Mainz 2-1 Frankfurt
Goals: 1-0 Muto (5'), 2-0 Malli (42'), 2-1 Seferovic (61')
Yoshinori Muto and Yunus Malli scored either side of Alexander Meier's 40th-minute sending off as the ten men of Frankfurt fell to a 2-1 defeat at the Coface Arena - Haris Seferovic reducing the arrears in the second half.
Matchday 31 - match stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt come into Matchday 31 in 17th, six points behind VfB Stuttgart and the safety of 15th place.
- Niko Kovac has lost 80 percent of his games since succeeding Armin Veh as Frankfurt coach in March. This is the poorest record of any Eintracht coach.
- The Eagles' 3-0 loss at Bayer 04 Leverkusen last Saturday was their third consecutive defeat.
- The Hessians have won only one of their previous 12 Bundesliga games - a 1-0 triumph over bottom club Hannover 96 on Matchday 27.
- Mainz have only won one of their last five away games, though that was an impressive 2-1 victory at champions FC Bayern München on Matchday 24.
- Frankfurt have won just one of their last eight games against Mainz - a 2-0 victory in April 2014. However, Mainz have won only one of their last 11 matches at Frankfurt's Commerzbank Arena, prevailing 3-1 in November 2012.
- Frankfurt's Meier is the only player to have played in all 15 Bundesliga encounters between Eintracht and Mainz. He has scored five goals against the 05ers.
- The reverse fixture, which Mainz won 2-1 on Matchday 14, saw Meier sent off in the 40th minute for a second bookable offence. It was the 33-year-old's first and hitherto only red card in the Bundesliga.
- Frankfurt have the worst record in the away table, with only nine points picked up on the road this season.
Possible line-ups
Frankfurt: Hradecky - Chandler, Abraham, Russ, Djakpa - Hasebe, Kittel - Huszti - Aigner, Ben-Hatira - Castaignos
Absentees: Anderson, Flum (rehabilitation), Zambrano (thigh), Medojevic (Achilles), Meier (knee), Reinartz (thigh)
Coach: Niko Kovac
Mainz: Karius - Brosinski, Balagun, Bell, Bussmann - Baumgartlinger, Latza - Clemens, Malli, Jairo - Cordoba
Absentees: Curci (calf), Soto (light training), Serder (muscular), Muto (knee), Berggreen (rehabilitation)
Coach: Martin Schmidt
Click here for your local broadcaster


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Four scenarios serve as baselines against which strategies for the coming decade can be tested.
DAY-TO-DAY DEVELOPMENTS in the world economy have become increasingly complex and global in their implications. From Greece to China to Russia, economic shocks are now of greater concern because around the world, traditional policy tools have already been used and financial resources depleted to help economies recover from the last downturn. As a result, strategic decisions have become more consequential.
Shocks are inevitable, but strategists must find ways to extract the signals from the noise to understand what lies over the horizon.Three interlinked factors have the potential to shift the global economy from one long-term outcome to another. First, in the near term, the major economies continue to struggle to achieve self-sustaining growth in aggregate demand. This continues despite years of monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as the recent drop in oil prices.
Second, the world's major economies face long-term structural challenges, including rising debt loads, aging populations, and inadequate or aging infrastructure. Success or failure in resolving these challenges will determine the speed of long-term growth in these economies. Third, the world's major economies have diverged in the last few years. In the past, global integration has driven convergence, but the prospects for further integration have become less certain. The global financial shock was followed by years of weak growth and concerns over rising inequality, and the path to renewed and stronger growth remains elusive. Given the consequences of these interlinked factors, it is small wonder that near-term developments have taken on oversized importance.
We believe that three sets of forces will shape the global economy over the coming decade. The first two are stimulus policies and shifting energy markets. These are near-term forces, whose effects are felt on a daily basis. The next two forces, urbanization and aging, are powerful, inexorable trends aggravating ongoing structural challenges. Finally, there are two forces of uncertain and variable magnitude: technological innovation and global connectivity. All of these trends could intermittently disrupt and transform sectors. We will examine each in turn.
Stimulating aggregate demand. Of immediate concern is the persistent problem of weak aggregate demand relative to overall economic capacity. The International Monetary Fund estimates that production in the ten largest advanced economies was two per cent below potential in 2014. This gap was smaller than it had been in 2009 (3.3 per cent) but significantly worse than the surplus of 0.8 per cent that prevailed in the early 2000s. All major economies except China experienced significantly weaker demand in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Many governments and central banks responded with fiscal and monetary stimulus programs that fostered the low real-interestrate environments which have endured for over five years. The McKinsey Global Institute reviewed the recent performance of advanced economies and found that they had all increased rather than reduced their overall debt levels — in some cases, by more than 50 per cent.
Complicating the picture is the question of whether real interest rates will remain low. Persistently-low interest rates encourage investors to search for yield and safety, creating the preconditions for asset bubbles and further volatility in international financial flows. Economists are concerned that unconventional monetary policies have distorted rather than bolstered the demand picture. In the United States, for example, the Federal Reserve signaled for months that it would raise rates by the end of 2015, heralding a return to a more conventional, interest rate–driven monetary policy. In the interim, however, results were tepid, and a rate hike has been further delayed. The challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in timing rate increases will be encountered in the eurozone and Japan in due time. Furthermore, demand in major markets remains weak enough that a misstep in any one of them will be felt by the others.
Energy-market transformations. Oil prices fell by 50 per cent in the latter half of 2014. Even after a slight rebound, they remained well below average levels of the past five years. For energy consumers, lower energy prices have provided a welcome respite; but for producers, they challenge fiscal stability. The break-even oil price — the price at which a fiscal surplus turns into a deficit — is estimated at $57 for Kuwait and $119 for Algeria. Countries have so far managed the crunch by drawing down reserves and through exchange-rate movements, but these are short-term actions and direct fiscal adjustment lies on the horizon. Elsewhere, the fall in oil prices is slowing further investment in energy sectors, notably unconventional oil and gas.
Global energy intensity has fallen over the past several decades, so oil-price shocks are felt differently in different parts of the world. The energy productivity of the ten largest advanced economies today is 74 per cent of what it was in 1980. Beyond the advanced economies, however, the picture changes. Thanks to the increasing size of the emerging economies, world energy productivity was able to rise by 33 per cent between 1980 and 2002 (remaining relatively flat thereafter).
In assessing the ultimate impact of recent energy-market shifts, strategists are seeking to discover what will happen not in the next year, but in the next decade. Only on two other occasions during the past 30 years, in 1985 and 2008, did the oil price fall as steeply as it did in 2014. The recoveries from these two events were very different affairs and are instructive for today. In 1985, excess production capacity led to stable prices for nearly a decade after the initial price decline. The 2008 decline in prices was part of the global financial crisis; prices dropped precipitously and then quickly rebounded as demand recovered, especially in emerging markets.
Persistent demand weakness and falling oil prices are the stuff of daily headlines, but associated effects could drive alternative economic outcomes for the next decade. The complication is that deeper forces are at work.
Unlike the impact of demand stimuli and energy-market shifts, the effects of urbanization and aging are predictable and are tilting the global economy in one general direction: towards emerging markets.
Rapid urbanization. From Brazil to China, emerging economies are urbanizing with unprecedented rapidity. Rural populations are responding to rising industrial opportunities and burgeoning growth, and the economic weight of cities in the world economy continues to rise. McKinsey research indicates that 46 of the world's 200 largest cities will be in China by 2025, a sign too of the eastward migration of the global economy's centre of gravity.
In recognition of its urbanization challenge, the Chinese government is moving with astonishing speed to meet its climate goals, because the pollution produced by outmoded power generation and manufacturing is starting to interfere with the quality of life in urban areas. India is facing similar and intensifying urban challenges, but has not yet moved with China's determination.
Demographic pressures. The labour force on which economic activity depends is both aging and shrinking. It is expected to contract by 11 per cent in China by 2050, even as the country's economy expands. The shrinkage in continental Europe is expected to be even more dramatic. Furthermore, as life spans are growing and birthrates falling, an aging working population in advanced and emerging economies will be supporting ever higher numbers of retirees. Among the major economies, only the U.S. has a demographic profile favourable to long-term economic growth. For the rest of the leading economies, expected productivity improvements will not bridge the gap. Without a fundamental economic and cultural shift that favours continued participation of older workers and the introduction of more women workers and immigrant labour, many economies would face serious growth constraints within ten years.
The potential impact of the final factors in our review are less certain than the effects of urbanization and aging.
Technological innovation. Technological innovation has reached a level in the major economies where significant structural changes are in process or have already occurred. Digitization has transformed the telecommunications, media, financial services and retail sectors. High-tech innovations in robotics and 3-D printing could enable mature and emerging economies alike to boost labour productivity and rapidly expand industrial horizons, while also shifting global trade patterns.
Global connectivity. Trading relationships are increasingly dense and complex, and they have rebounded rapidly since the global downturn. Today, China is a peerless world-trade hub and Latin American, Indian and Middle Eastern trade has risen in world-economic weight. Among other factors, the recapitalization of banks, regulatory change, and monetary stimulus have exercised countervailing effects on financial flows, which remain well below pre-crisis levels. Concerns about the transmission and impact of financial shocks remain high on the global regulatory agenda.
More than 20 years have passed since the conclusion of the last round of multilateral trade negotiations in 1994. More economies have been opened since then, and the scope of trade agreements has widened. The focus in developed economies has shifted toward the opening of investment opportunities and easing of restrictions on services; in emerging markets, agricultural subsidies have been a priority. These areas have proven especially intractable in a multilateral context, but regional and bilateral trade agreements of widening scope have nonetheless proliferated since 1994.
As the last two decades have demonstrated, increasing international trade flows can reshape national growth trajectories. However, a rising caution pervades public debate about deepening economic linkages among countries. The principal concerns go beyond the potential impact on growth, even within specific sectors. The reservations are more focused on the wider question of whether nations can agree on global rules that are appropriate and supportive for an evolving economy.
Our scenarios for the coming decade are shaped by the three tightly linked sets of factors outlined above, and the interaction of these factors will govern a number of crucial outcomes. Is weak growth in advanced economies going to undermine the will to open more politically sensitive markets and sectors? To what extent will inadequate infrastructure or restrictive markets stall growth in emerging countries? How will falling commodity prices complicate efforts to diversify commodity-driven economies?
The longer-term factors discussed above — urbanization, aging, technological innovation, and global connectivity — anchor our four scenarios, while the near-term factors — monetary stimulus and energy prices — inform the path to the longer-term outcomes. These dynamics have been framed by the intersection of two axes (see Figure One). The vertical axis measures the acceleration or deceleration of growth and thus how well (or poorly) economies have tackled their long-term structural challenges. Successful economies drive up productivity and overall growth. The horizontal axis measures the extent to which global growth is convergent. This is determined by a combination of near- and longer-term factors.
Countries can converge toward higher (or lower) growth rates, for example, according to how successful they have been in implementing and then unwinding their monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the long term, increasing convergence is also determined by the global evolution of economic rules of the road, covering the extent of economic activity, including goods and services, migration, investment, and intellectual property rights.
A convergent world would not be impervious to shocks, but it would be better able to absorb them. Higher global systemic resilience means that individual economies can recover more quickly. Divergent outcomes, on the other hand, result when the policies of individual countries are at odds, creating internal systemic imbalances that can magnify the effects of a shock in a particular country. Divergence can also slow the movement of shocks across borders — a movement that, unfortunately, is common in an interconnected world.
A final consideration is the historical pace of global growth, which provides context for the scenarios. This indicator has been remarkably stable since the mid-1980s. The rolling ten-year average real growth rates hovered between 3.4 and 2.7 per cent.
In this scenario, the global economy experiences the most robust long-term growth it has seen in more than three decades, reaching 3.7 per cent per year through 2025. The U.S., the eurozone, and Japan are able to make the transition to more sustainable growth while exiting from their monetary stimuli with minimal disruption. Likewise, policy makers in China implement incremental changes and guide economic growth smoothly and gradually downward to a sustainable level. India emerges as the fastest-growing economy over this period as it rides a wave of reform, investment, and robust demographics. By 2025, the global economy will have grown to $90 trillion in constant 2015 dollars, from $62 trillion in 2015.
As global growth gathers momentum, liquidity from unconventional monetary policies is gradually absorbed or withdrawn in the U.S., the eurozone, and Japan. Proliferating trade agreements lead to the lowering of barriers in critical service industries and to revivals of cross-border activity and technology transfer. The rapid diffusion of innovation, bolstered by broader global trade arrangements, boosts the share of exports in GDP for the G-20 from 25 per cent today to 29 per cent by 2025, or roughly at the growth rate of the early 2000s.
Financial-sector reforms in emerging economies foster more market-driven and robust capital markets. Global interest rates return to the 'old normal' levels of the pre-crisis years. Energy and commodity prices are buoyed as productivity-induced supply gains cannot keep pace with emerging-market demand. As might be expected in such an environment, employment growth rebounds and most countries see unemployment rates fall and participation rise. India, China, and commodity-driven economies account for 80 per cent of employment growth. Elsewhere, policy changes in advanced economies encourage aging workers to stay in the workforce longer, while making it easier for women and part-time workers to stay employed.
In this second scenario, the growth picture becomes more uneven, as countries tackle structural challenges in fits and starts. Global growth reaches 3.2 per cent a year over the course of the decade, a relatively high historical level, and by 2025 the global economy reaches $88 trillion in 2015 dollars.
The U.S., China, and India achieve satisfactory and even sporadically robust growth, while the eurozone and Japan struggle. The unevenness of the expansion makes agreements harder to reach on international protections for investors, intellectual property, and agricultural subsidies. As a result, trade growth starts to slow and remains effectively flat relative to GDP at 25 per cent.
Some countries find it difficult to exit from unconventional monetary policies, which continue to distort credit channels and capital flows. The search of investors for higher or more stable yields quickens, adding to volatility. Oil prices gradually revive on higher demand, and producers of other commodities encounter more frequent supply constraints.
This lower-growth scenario is defined by global convergence to a slower path. Global growth manages to reach 2.9 per cent over the course of the decade, slightly below average for the past three decades. The expansion is especially reliant on positive outcomes in emerging markets. By the end of the decade, the global economy reaches $86 trillion in 2015 dollars.
Structural challenges remain largely unaddressed, but are offset in the near term by partly successful efforts to revive demand. China avoids the worst effects of a 'hard landing', but confidence in the fiscal system is shaken, further weighing on growth. China still accounts for nearly 23 per cent of global GDP by 2025, however. In the advanced economies, fiscal and monetary buffers to address structural reforms are exhausted.
Near-term demand revives globally, creating an opportunity for Europe and the U.S. to make progress on financial services, privacy, and M&A activity, which becomes a benchmark for global emulation. Trade is a more important driver of growth in this scenario than in the previous one. The lower growth curve is a constraint, but trade still accounts for 27 per cent of the global economy. Demand for energy (including oil) revives, but the availability of additional supply keeps prices from recovering more quickly.
This final scenario is the negative image of the global-synchronicity scenario. Growth stalls and the world economy is $11.4 trillion smaller than it would be in that scenario. 'Rolling regional crises' describes a world where structural reforms broadly stall, and aggregate demand, especially in advanced economies, does not return in a sustainable way. Deleveraging remains a drag on household balance sheets, and corporate-debt levels continue to rise.
Increasingly, countries rely on conventional and unconventional forms of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Real interest rates remain in negative territory, but the growth outlook fails to encourage renewed investment growth. Incremental fixed investment in the G-20 countries totals little more than half the level in the global-synchronicity scenario.
With not enough economic incentive, companies fail to invest in R&D and technological innovation remains confined to a few regions. The diffusion of technology also slows down as economies increasingly turn inward. Implicit and explicit restrictions on international M&A activity proliferate, as do regulations inhibiting the expansion of trade and technology. As a result, the share of exports in GDP for G-20 nations rises more slowly, from 31 per cent today to 34 per cent by 2025. Similarly, employment growth slows and the G-20 nations add 60 million fewer jobs than they would in the global-synchronicity scenario. In a repeat of the 1980s, global oil supplies remain abundant and energy prices stay flat in real terms.
In this scenario, the world economy remains much more vulnerable to economic shocks, particularly from financial flows. Low interest rates, combined with expanded financial liquidity, create the conditions for volatile flows seeking yields in response to the slightest hint of a change in the growth outlook.
Our scenarios suggest that the major economies face significant structural challenges. To revive growth, these countries must tackle the challenges while navigating constant reverberations from an interconnected world economy. For strategists, the course of trade and information flows is of crucial importance, as the direction and forces behind the flows determine how industries will be affected. For instance, rising south-to-south trade in goods creates a very different set of opportunities than does increased services-driven trade or increased investment based on production location.
Volatility and shocks are an ever-present feature of the world economy. Unfortunately, in many parts of the world, the policy tools and financial reserves needed to absorb such shocks have been expended in dealing with previous events. Understanding susceptibility and resilience to shocks — from a national and global perspective — will allow strategists to make better decisions about market entry, new investment or market exit.
We hope that the scenarios laid out herein will be helpful to leaders in their strategic planning. They have been designed as baselines against which different corporate strategies can be tested, to reveal how industry-specific dynamics may evolve in response to macroeconomic shifts. We believe that most companies will find that regular pressure testing of their strategies in response to both macroeconomic and industry shifts helps to sustain growth in the face of challenging conditions.
Click here for a PDF version of this article.
Luis Enriquez is a Director in McKinsey & Company's Brussels office. Sven Smit is a Director in the Amsterdam office. Both are leaders in McKinsey's Global Economics Intelligence group. Jonathan Ablett is a Knowledge Expert with the McKinsey Global Institute. This article was originally published by McKinsey & Company, at McKinsey.com. Copyright 2015. Reprinted by permission.
This article originally appeared in 'The Global Mindset Issue' (Spring 2016).
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I've waited 24 minutes for someone else to start this. So I'd better do it.
Up to much this weekend? Got a bed delivery from John Lewis coming tomorrow. Engagement drinks in Clapham (*not* mine before anyone say owt) in the evening then Space Dimension Controller after. Sunday will be hungover and rugby and MAYBE going up the Shard.
Everything's hanging in the balance though as boyfriend's dad is really ill and in hospital so he might need to go and visit. I'm trying not to think about it TBH. It's all really shit.
CHEER ME UP DiS.
I've been hanging about waiting for you to start it PN! :)
Feeling remarkably fresh, it's great not drinking during the week....sort of.
Lots on today so naturally spend a lot of time on here.
Tonight - unsure
Tomorrow - friends up from london, watching rugby, will end up messy as fuck
sunday - as my friensd will still be up from london probably more of the same
Sorry to hear about your bfs dad, hope he makes a speedy recovery
the forecast says it's going to be 17C on Saturday
18C in London.
tonight i will play magic the gathering and ask a girl on a date
tomorrow i might go and see i'm being good
I wasn't.
I sent you an email at about 3pm and it didn't get delivered for whatever reason, I saw it in my inbox this morning and I have *just* replied to you. I think it's a problem your end innit?
Morning niki, reckoning I'm at about 20% hungover today
Had a Double Sausage and Egg McMuffin and a Coco Cafe (http://www.drinkcococafe.com/) this morning and then watched this video a tonne of times so feeling pretty perky:
Going to see Zomby tonight. If he turns up. Finishing work at 4 though, gonna have to pace myself.
- breakfast_t_england this'd this
I'm hoping the sun makes reappearance as it's Friday.
I made burritos with the left over chilli last night - was awesome.
Tonight I've going to the pub with a couple of all time dogs which I'm looking forward to as I don't see them much anymore (ie they're rubbish/old boring now and don't come out much).
After the trainwreck of last weekend
I just intend to keep to myself this weekend. Go to the gym a couple of times, maybe sauna as well. Stay in flat watching films and reading. Might buy some socks.
Sorry to hear about your fella's dad
hope he makes a recovery. Will this cheer you up?
Tonight I'm in London rehearsing, then I have to go aaaalll the way back to Brighton to have lunch with my Dad in Brighton, then back to London for a gig. Life sucks.
- cat_race this'd this
morning niki
not up to much. off for a bike ride, change my energy suppliers, watch some sport.
need to decide if I should go to Montenegro with the GF or go somewhere else..
Hopefully a fairly easy day at work,
maybe a takeaway tonight.
Tomorrow is cleaning, then gf's birthday party, eventually plumped for the Craft Beer Co after helpful advice here. Sunday will be recovery, maybe seeing the new Wes Anderson (it's out, right?).
Need to make money stretch though. Dunno how I'll manage that.
Yeah it's out today.
Need to go and see it but my local cinema isn't showing it at the moment. Hopefully they'll get it next week.
I also still need to see Her.
Yeah out today
I'm gonna go to the Rio to see it next week. EXCITED.
got hailstoned on the way to work. muchos banteros.
picking up a hire car this evening
driving to Leeds for my first beer festival of the year. HOORAY.
Looking at a flat in leeds this afternoon
Watching Utd tomorrow, probably get hammered after the usual weekend ruining defeat.
- plasticniki this'd this
one of my best london friends got deported yesterday
after landing in heathrow from boston. questioned all day then thrown back over the tub last night. sucks.
spent the evening doing a proper old man thing in the pub. was content and melancholy. cba with today.
Tonight - nothing
Tomorrow - yoga, hayward gallery, eating fermented pickles and vodka at Bar Topolski.
Sunday - Nymphomaniac Pt1!
Finally cracked after my Gran asking me so much if i have used the Seance voucher
she got me for Christmas that I booked it in for this evening. Not really sure what to expect but pretty scared of Goblins so hopefully they do not materialise in front of me, not so keen on Elves and the Kray Twins either so hopefully the ghost of them dont come back for a chat/kneecap me
Arghh just read the voucher terms and one of them is "Robe Provided"
and it is from '8:30pm until Contact' I am starting to think my Gran might have got me a voucher for a Sauna
looking for a job, its so hardd
Don't even want a good one. Just any admin work in London for now but its not happening. Don't know why, ive got decent experience and a degree in microbiology. Should I leave the last part out altogether? That bloody position where youre underqualified for half the jobs, (apparently) overqualified for the rest D:
And pn, hope your bf's dad gets well soon! That conplainy stuff up there isn't very cheering so here's a dog http://25.media.tumblr.com/9f9c215cc07bf9feb16d0cc15470cefc/tumblr_mwk1oo8PVv1qdlh1io1_250.gif
ahoy hoy
so glad it's Friday. mostly looking forward to catching up on sleep BUT I do have the following:
tonight: dunno, but probably going out for dinner with the mrs
tomorrow: football. mrs is coming with. I'm a bit concerned because I'm really struggling to remember a match that she went to that Brentford won :/
Sunday: probably going to see a film, not sure what yet
I'm getting a train to London at 2
going to Barcelona on Sunday!!!!!!!!!!!!
handily this weekend my friend is having her 30th birthday party as well.
good news. um. there's a new Parks & Rec today?
Parents visiting this eve
and then a birthday meal on sat, and then probably watching all of season 4 + 5 of fringe on Sunday
season 4 is not great
I really liked season 5 though. shorter length + definite end date = renewed purpose.
I really need to watch season 5
Season 4 was pretty sucky but I've been rewatching season 1 lately and remembering how brilliant it can be. Glad to hear the last season's a bit better. Looking forward to a totally stupid ending, though I've low expectations given how Lost ended.
Hope the bfs dad gets better quickly x
I'm off today. Still in bed. Not sure what to do today. Probably go get coffee try and plan something for tomorrow.
Have been invited to join pole dancing classes this evening. Actually really tempted, it looks like fun.
hope your bfs Dad gets better soon pn
scraped my knee at MMA last night so there's a patch of skin about 3 inches square missing, stings a fair bit. Might and see if I can get one of those big plasters to put on it.
Tonight I'm having drinks with one of my London dogs and his girlfriend and drinks somewhere in Victoria before that.
Sorry to hear about your bf's dad
Hope you get some good news soon xsaps this'd this
My sister is 40
I have to buy a present. PLEASE HELP.
nerf gun
drum kit
hulk smash hands
Tonight: laundry and other chores
Tomorrow: shopping, singing lesson, then going round to see my ex and the cats
Sunday: spending some quality time with my sofa
Yes I have! :)
I'm craving more now.
Buy me Lego, plasnik!
We've been frequenting a local pub quiz for months and tonight we spend our winnings
£30 voucher for first place, £20 for second, £10 for third. We have £280 to spend tonight.
Dinner and drinks. Gonna make it RAIN!
Also seeing my friend star in her first play tomorrow night and I'm looking forward to it. I've seen her do a few musicals but I'm not a big fan of musicals, tomorrow should be good. She got mad talent!
Oh christ i'm now sandwiched between two auditors called emelda and christiana
who have suddenly appeared today. they are stern looking.
auditors scare me.
That would actually be nice
really get my efficiency up.
Sadly not. They're auditing the shop but there's not a lot of space
I would have loved to have gotten our usual stern looking auditors this year
but got this geezer who was 100% ex-military who used it as some way of reliving his interrogation years, thought he was going to waterboard me at some point
oh god
i've got the classic incredibly sharp-looking ones who just don't laugh at anything at all.
sounds like the start of a sexy filmfoppyish and lemonbrickcombo this'd this
Say hi to Christiana to me
She was a little harsh with the whip last time but I'm still looking forward to our next session
feeling a little bit meh about job and my lack of talent in certain areas
going for a run at lunch which i like,
scanning some drawings and stuff later,
going to LONDON tomorrow to meet friends, have a tour of the houses of parliament and then get some ace food somewhere,
sunday will finish off digging up the garden and might go meet a pal for a drink
This weekend will be my first weekend off for about a year
Birthday treat to myself, even though it means I lose 2 days pay, but I'm actually going to do normal stuff like go for breakfast and the cinema and go for a walk with my bf. I realised that apart from Christmas day and a festival in Liverpool once we've never spent a daytime together since we met (in 2012). Ridiculous working hours on my part.
wouldn't mind seeing Grand Budapest Hotel this weekend
Doing some band recording at a friend's house tonight. Nothing else planned yet.
- actually seem to be doing work today
- going home to family this weekend and none of my stupid friends are in town
- got a vegetarian sausage bap by accident this morning
Bit sniffly
Not helped by having a 6 mile round trip in the pissing rain to take my grandad his paper every day. Gets well aggro if its later than 8:30am. Still, listening to Dune audiobook today and going to have a few drinks later and try and dance with an alt-babe to SoaD
You're snifly because of your short hair
You need to grow so you've got a nice blanket of hair keeping you warm like before! :)
This is wise advice
Hope your bf's Dad is okay, PN x
I had an odd night. One of the Creative Directors at Universal asked if I wanted a job. Do I? I don't know.
Yes, you dickhead
you do.
what's the job?
(also: NOT SEEING MUCH CONSOLING GOING ON, PEOPLE)
I just had a muffin if that helps?
Non veggie.
non veggie? impressive.
my answer to your dilemma massively depends on the job. and actually also the circs in which and reasons why you were offered it?
We shall talk about this off boards
(no I didn't sleep with him)
hahaha I didn't mean to imply that
I wonder if I'd take a job for that reason.
"sir, your sexual technique is so staggeringly crap that I simply *must* offer you this job"
"ok then"
yes, I would.
are you in tonight?
you'll get to see me if you are. can't think of anything better to cheer someone up.
WAIT. which universal do you mean
the music group? or the film group?
But in Film/TV
Surely that places you more than a few rungs up the ladder from your current position, working with a company of that size?
But would your actual title be comparative or would you be starting from a lower position?
or the theme park?
(in this case the answer is obviously yes)
universal? bugger me, I can't think of any
oh no wait I will be the t-rex on the flume ride. my arms naturally go a bit like that anyway.
It's fun here
We have a Friday Treat in the cafe every Friday at 3pm, if that helps.
Which office are you in?
Kensington High Street? Also - I have no idea what job you do.
I'll PM you.
playing my favourite venue
the brudenell social club, tonight, be happy for me
how are you holding up, champ?
better cheers
things seem be going ok, making an effort to sort my shit out band and personal life wise so hopefully!
good stuff
glad to hear it.PickledOeuf and fitzcarraldo this'd this
That is the best venue
I miss living in Yorkshire.
I'm happy for you.Severed799, badmanreturns, twentynine, and cat_race this'd this
love the brudenell
wish I could be there. Happy FridaySevered799 this'd this
Recovered mostly from THE COLD (TM) so tonight I am going to ruin it all by going to the Antinote Records 2nd Birthday party with a friend, where we will dance to oddball techno from dusty 90s archives.
Tomorrow, Bill Viola (video artist) exhibition with a well connected ladyfriend who has got me in for free, and enjoying the good weather before a housewarming.
Got a couple of pre-sale tickets to Paris' premier day party on Sunday, shit loads of that pugilistic and brutal UK techno on the bill, Luke Slater, Sigha, Shifted. Gonna be real nice, all day being pounded with hard sound and coming up for air on the terrace of the boat to let some light in.
Work is crippling me this week, I feel behind on everything.
Getting drunk tonight
Up in Manchester tomorrow for a friend's birthday and then on Sunday we're stealing the in-laws' car and heading up to a cottage in the Lakes for a few days. Going to drink prosecco in a wood-fired hot tub and enjoy being in the middle of nowhere for a bit.
that last bit sounds blissful
I want to do that.
Might go to the cinema later.
Might go do some dancing afterwards.
Might go punch moousse in the dick after that.moousee this'd this
- chris-budget this'd this
Duuno yet.
Haven't heard owt back yet. I did have a phone call from a private number earlier, probably should've answered it huh.
tempted to go casino later
but i dont know maaaaaaaaan
actually there's a tourney in kings cross
i'll do that instead.
hurricane rooms
starts at 7.30 but i think they have a list after that. http://www.meetup.com/kings-poker/
good luck with your female tho cr bd
to hurricanes? yeah i think
probs a 15 minute walk? It's the other side of the station, next to the Scala
boss is ordering papa johns for the office
- badmanreturns, japes, and breakfast_t_england this'd this
going to the seaside
fuck all you pricks
Ten ,inutes ago I snapchatted SUNNY GLASGOW
2 minutes ago there was a hail storm and now it's a heavy snow blizzard. Farewell weekend plans (that I didn't have. but still.)
sounds about right
basically only thing I don't miss
Just had some free food. (various salad)
Pub tonight.
Forest Green Rovers v Cambridge tomorrow.
Niece's 4th birthday party on Sunday followed by Get the Blessing at the Colston Hall.


text:
Nikki D'Arcy
Curriculum Vitae
Plymouth High School 1991-1998; Uniersity of Plymouth 1998-2001; University College London 2011-2014
A-Levels in Biology, Psychology and General Studies. Bsc Microbial and Cellular Biology. Postgraduate Certificate in Wildlife Management and Conservation. PhD in Indoor Microbiome research
Work History:
All over. I've worked in some great research labs in Salisbury and London. I also worked in Peru for a year which was amazing!
Current Job:
I'm a Microbiologist and Laboratory Manager
Auspherix Ltd.
Favourite thing to do in my job: I like growing cells in flasks. It amazes me how they keep growing and growing! It's like having millions of pets.
About Me
I'm a microbiologist who loves sushi, travelling and yoga!
Read more
I live in Hitchin with my fiance Chris, we are getting married in Spain this October! Very exciting!!
I seem to be busy most of the time, I go to the gym 3 times a week and do yoga twice a week (try it, it's amazing!). I'm also an Explorer Scout leader, although I still haven't learned how to do knots…! When I get time to relax, I usually spend it in my pyjamas, eating and watching stuff on Netflix.
I really like cooking, but I think it's only because I get to eat what I've made when I've finished! 😉 I enjoy hanging out with my friends too and travelling when I can. I've been to loads of really amazing places, including a recent year off to travel around South East Asia. My favourite place was Sulawesi in Indonesia, full of great people and places to visit.
I also like monkeys.
My Work
Read more
Right now, we have lots of bacteria which are resistant to the antibiotics available. It is becoming more and more urgent that we develop some new ones so that people who get sick can still be treated in the future. My company, Auspherix is developing new antibiotics to do just that!
My Typical Day
Busy, lots of things to do, growing bugs, killing bugs, drinking tea.
Read more
We are still in the early stages of our research, so the days can be fun and unpredictable (one of the reasons I love science!). We do have a few basic experiments that we do each week though. One of them is testing chemicals to see if they have antibiotic properties (can kill bacteria). I also grow lots of human cells in flasks to see if the chemicals are toxic and kill them or not. Sometimes I do some crazy things like testing rat wee….. which smells pretty bad!
The other part of my job involves managing the lab, so I make sure all the equipment is working properly, arrange for it to be fixed if it isn't. I do the ordering for the lab and also look after people's health and safety. We work with a lot of nasty chemicals and bacteria that could be harmful, so it's important to make sure that all the procedures are there for keeping people safe.
I also drink a lot of tea.
What I'd do with the prize money
Buy supplies for outreach projects
Read more
I am a STEM ambassador and would like to run more workshops and fun days for schools to help people become more engaged in science.
I would use the money to buy supplies and equipment for this. One thing I love to do is extract DNA from onion cells…!!!
I would also buy some biscuits for the lab! 😉
My Interview
How would you describe yourself in 3 words?
Determined, hungry & a-little-bit-bonkers
What's the best thing you've done in your career?
Went to work in Peru for a year! Also, my PhD was pretty fun (in the end).
What or who inspired you to follow your career?
I remember growing bacteria from milk and deciding I wanted to be a microbiologist! My GCSE Biology teacher inspired me to take science A levels.
Were you ever in trouble at school?
I used to get told off in PE all the time for wearing make-up…..
If you weren't doing this job, what would you choose instead?
An explorer…..!! Or a primatologist but that's still a scientist!
Who is your favourite singer or band?
Major Lazer
What's your favourite food?
Sushi. And cheese. And bacon. Do I have to pick a favourite!?!?
What is the most fun thing you've done?
Travelled around Asia for a year
If you had 3 wishes for yourself what would they be? - be honest!
1) To be able to teleport so I could pop to Costa Rica on my lunch break. 2) To have enough money to set up clinics for people in Developing Countries so they could get medical care for free 3) For all of my friends and family to be happy, healthy and never want for anything (is that 3 wishes in one?!)
Tell us a joke.
Q: Y'all want to hear a Potassium joke? A: K
My profile link:


text:
V-th International Conference
Information - Interaction - Intellect
June 30 - July 14, 2014, Varna (Bulgaria)
Supported by
The International Journal "Information Theories and Applications"®
The International Journal "Information Technologies and Knowledge"®
General sponsor: FOI Bulgaria
Conference organizers
- ITHEA International Scientific Society
- Association of Developers and Users of Intelligent Systems (Ukraine)
- Institute of Information Theories and Applications FOI ITHEA (Bulgaria)
- Federation of the Scientific - Engineering Unions /FNTS/ (Bulgaria)
- Ben-Gurion University (Israel)
- Hasselt University (Belgium)
- University of Calgary (Canada)
- Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (Spain)
- V.M.Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NASU (Ukraine)
- St.Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of RAS (Russia)
- Institute of Mathematical Problems and Systems of NASU (Ukraine)
- National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
- Kharkiv National University of Radio Electronics (Ukraine)
- Taras Shevchenko National University of Kiev (Ukraine)
- Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, BAS (Bulgaria)
- Institute of Mathematics of SD RAN (Russia)
Aims and Scope
The conference is devoted to discussion of current research and applications regarding the basic directions of intelligent systems development:
Topics of interest
- AI in Risk Management and GMES
- Decision Making
- NL Text Processing
- Intelligent Technologies in Control and Design
- Multi-agent Structures and Systems
- Neural Networks
Steering Committee
Krassimir Markov (Bulgaria)
Alexander Palagin (Ukraine)
Vitalii Velychko (Ukraine)
Alexey Voloshin (Ukraine)
Program Committee
Adil Timofeev (Russia)
Alexander Eremeev (Russia)
Alexander Kleshchev (Russia)
Alexey Petrovskiy (Russia)
Anatoliy Gupal (Ukraine)
Ekaterina Solovyova (Ukraine)
Elena Ilina (Sweden)
Evgeny Nickolov (Bulgaria)
Galina Rybina (Russia)
Genady Osipov (Russia)
Iliya Mitov (Bulgaria)
Irene Artemieva (Russia)
Iurii Kryvonos (Ukraine)
Leonid Svyatogor (Ukraine)
Liudmila Cheremisinova (Belarus)
Martin Mintchev (Canada)
Milena Dobreva (UK)
Natalia Bilous (Ukraine)
Natalia Kussul (Ukraine)
Nikolay Zagoruiko (Russia)
Olga Nevzorova (Russia)
Orly Yadid-Pecht (Israel)
Sergey Krivii (Ukraine)
Svetlana Cojocaru (Moldova)
Tatyana Gavrilova (Russia)
Valeriya Gribova (Russia)
Vassil Sgurev (Bulgaria)
Vitalii Vishnevskiy (Ukraine)
Vladimir Donchenko (Ukraine)
Vladimir Lovitskii (UK)
Yevgeniy Bodyanskiy (Ukraine)
Yury Zaychenko (Ukraine)
The official languages of the Conference are Russian and English.
Work language at the conference time is Russian.
Papers and Fees
To submit a paper use the ITHEA ISS Submission Web System: http://ita.ithea.org.
To see the deadlines, fees and rules for preparing the papers please click here.


text:
Is the axis of Rotating Shaft wear and tear during use common equipment problems, mainly caused by the characteristics of the metal Rotating Shaft: metal Although high hardness, but the yield is poor (can not recover after deformation), poor impact resistance, fatigue resistance is poor, can easily lead to adhesive wear, abrasive wear, fatigue wear, fretting wear. Most of the Rotating Shaft wear is not easy to detect, only there the machine high, beating amplitude, abnormal sound, etc., will cause notice, but to the people when they are found, most of the drive Rotating Shaft are worn, resulting in machine downtime.
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e-COMMERCE Shipping + Returns
Please allow 1-3 days processing time for your order to ship. Once shipped, you will receive an email confirmation with shipping and tracking information.
Redeem does not ship to P.O. Boxes and holds the right to refuse shipping on any order for any reason.
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text: Dr. Friedman has dedicated his entire medical career to the pursuit of knowledge, research and treatment of cardiac arrhythmia. He has managed to develop a world class EP program in our community setting, which has been an enormous asset to the population we serve here on Cape Cod. His contributions to the field of cardiac electrophysiology have been tremendous, and I am privileged to have trained under him.


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With so much focus on who will be our next president, we might have forgotten that Barack Obama still occupies the White House. And he still has a few immigration loose ends to tie up.
The U.S. Supreme Court's failure to reach a decision in the case over the president's deferred action programs has put those programs to bed for the time being. The programs would have granted deportation relief and work authorization to about 5 million undocumented immigrants.
But there was so much more to the November 2014 immigration executive action than relief for the undocumented. And two years later, there's still a lot to be done.
A big one: the Labor Department's PERM program. In most cases, it's the first step employers have to go through to sponsor foreign workers for green cards.
Employers and immigration attorneys have complained for years that the program is out-of-date with modern business practices, especially when it comes to the steps employers must take to recruit U.S. workers before they can hire a foreign worker. There's a lot of focus on newspaper want ads, which are on their way out in the age of digital job searches.
There's a proposal to modernize the program, but it's been under view by the White House Office of Management and Budget since early March.
Also on the OMB's to-do list: the final version of a hodgepodge rule on skilled immigrant workers. A lot of the December proposal focused on relief for workers being sponsored for green cards who are waiting for their visas to become available—which can take years or even decades.
Late to the game is a proposal to bring in immigrant entrepreneurs through what's called the parole authority, which allows the president to allow immigrants entry outside of the normal channels, either for humanitarian reasons or because they would create a significant public benefit.
There is no visa for immigrants who start businesses in the U.S.
The White House also is planning guidance on how immigrant entrepreneurs can self-petition for a green card, allowing them to stay permanently and become U.S. citizens. This likely would be done through the national interest waiver process, which lets immigrants seek employment-based green cards without an employer sponsor and without PERM.
Make no mistake, a lot of things have been accomplished. Here are just some them:
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text:
of Trump's Fiscal Policies on Stocks, Bonds, Gold and U.S. Dollar
by Victor Sperandeo with the Curmudgeon
Disclaimer: All comments and opinions expressed herein are those of Victor Sperandeo. Curmudgeon Notes have been added for clarity and completeness.
Market Action:
The markets have certainly revalued their view on President elect Donald J. Trump. There's been a straight up move in equities and the US dollar, coupled with a straight down decline on all debt prices (higher yields). I view those market movements as mostly short covering in equities, asset re-allocation away from debt, and changes in equity sector weightings.
Cyclical stocks were sharply higher in a rarely seen way. US Steel (symbol=X) went from 17.6 to 28.6, while coal stocks, banks, and other such industries are up significantly since election day.
Meanwhile, the high-tech stock favorites were sold. The "FANG" tech darlings had large declines (prices rounded off from high to Friday's close): FB 133 to 117; AMZN 843 to 760; NFLX 127.5 to 115; GOOGL 813 to 760.
Curmudgeon Note:
The Russell 2000 (^RUT) exploded higher since the Monday before election day. In 11 trading days from November 4th to last Friday's close, ^RUT has risen 13.72% and has been UP EVERY DAY (on a closing basis) - from 1156.08 close on November 3rd to 1,315.64 at Friday's close. As of Friday, November 18, 2016, ^RUT trailing P/E is nil (can't be calculated since cumulative earnings are <=0) vs 145 one year ago. (Source: WSJ)
In other words, cumulative ^RUT earnings have declined over the past year, while the stock price of the index (and IWM ETF) has advanced strongly.
ZeroHedge notes that the Russell 2000 is the most overbought since Jan 2013, while the Financials SPDR (XLF) is most overbought since April 2010 (due to rise in rates expected to benefit spread on bank loans).
In sharp contrast, all categories of international stocks declined sharply (almost a straight DOWN move) since November 9th. That included the EAFE index, emerging market equities, and open end mutual funds like the $16B Artisan International Fund (ARTIX), which the Curmudgeon has owned for two decades. Gold and precious metals stocks and mutual funds also had steep falls in prices.
Effects of Trump's Fiscal Plan:
The detailed aspects of the Trump Fiscal Plan are still very general, but will include large tax cuts and infrastructure plus defense spending. This will cause a huge increase in "Nominal GDP" when and if the new initiatives are passed by Congress. GDP will also increase due to lower regulations on business and a mountain of excess bank reserves which will be available for business and industrial loans.
My "back of the envelope" estimate is a 7.5% nominal and 4.0% real GDP increase one year after the plan goes into effect (see Curmudgeon Note below on timing). That could create a banquet for investors. However, one must ask if the markets are discounting this potential economic (and profit) growth increase way ahead of what seems reasonable?
According to Goldman Sachs, the tax legislation has a good chance of passing in 2017, but it is not expected to reduce revenues by as much as Trump has proposed. That brings us to the practical limitations of Trump's tax reform plan: not everything on Trump's agenda will occur and very little of it will happen quickly. Goldman expects that the major fiscal policy proposals that are being discussed will take the better part of 2017 to enact, and will probably not have significant economic effects until late 2017 or 2018.
Curmudgeon Note:
Are US stock market participants dreaming of instant gratification? If we assume most of Trump's programs (still very vague) are enacted by Congress in late 2017, it will take at least one year for them to "kick-in" and produce higher corporate earnings. And not all of Trump's fiscal policy initiatives will be passed by Congress.
Also, the funding for new infrastructure spending must be some form of public-private sector partnership; or else the US budget deficit and national debt will balloon to unimaginable levels. The format, methods and procedure of such a partnership is pure speculation now.
We invoke the old cliché: "don't count your chickens before they hatch."
Implications for the Stock Market:
The passing of Trump's fiscal policy later than June 2017 could be a problem for the stock market based on today's richly valued P/E's. The S&P 500 is trading at a 25.1 trailing P/E; the S&P Industrials at 28.9; DJ Utilities at 25.2. [Source: Barron's]
With interest rates continuing to rise, the equity market may not be able to tolerate a delay till next fall for Trump's fiscal plan to be enacted by Congress. It won't kick in and produce substantive results till months or even a year after that. How far out is the market discounting future growth?
Deficits, US Dollar, Gold, and Interest Rates:
Gold is declining due to the US Dollar and interest rates both rising. However, when you have big tax cuts, with huge spending coming from record debt levels, you will get almost as much inflation as you will growth.
After the momentum gets going inflation overtakes growth. The dollar then losses credibility and declines as interest rates continue to rise. Let's look at the 1976-1980 period under President Jimmy Carter for evidence:
The bottom line is that the US dollar can decline in the face of increasing interest rates, when inflation is rising rapidly along with Gold. Alternatively, the dollar and interest rates can rise together, and so can Gold, as it did from December 1972 ($65.20) to December 1976 ($134.75). (Source: Gold Futures CRB 2014 Encyclopedia).
Conclusions and End Quote:
The Fed is now way behind the yield curve and they should raise rates 50bps, not the 25bps which is fully discounted. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, there's a 95.4% probability of a 25 bps Fed Funds increase at the FOMC December meeting.
The more important news is the Italian Referendum, and the new Austrian Presidential recount vote (the first one was rigged) in the first week of December.
Curmudgeon Note:
In the November 20th Financial Times (on line subscription required), Wolfgang Münchau wrote:
"If Matteo Renzi, Italian prime minister, loses his constitutional referendum on December 4, I would expect a sequence of events that would raise questions of Italy's participation in the Eurozone……. The referendum matters as it could accelerate the path towards euro exit. If Mr. Renzi loses, he has said he would resign, leading to political chaos. Investors might conclude the game is up. On December 5, Europe could wake up to an immediate threat of disintegration."
My view of the markets is the same for now (see recent Curmudgeon blog posts under "Current Links of Interest" at fiendbear.com). The trends in force should maintain themselves till the end of this month. However, most of the gains are past, for this leg up, and a pause is in the cards.
This new world wide focus on a fiscal strategy was created from the failed Keynesian monetary policies to stimulate borrowing and spending. As Ludwig von Mises put it: "All attempts to coerce the living will of human beings into the service of something they do not want must fail."
So much for Keynesian economics.
Good luck and till next time...
Follow the Curmudgeon on Twitter @ajwdct247
Curmudgeon is a retired investment professional. He has been involved in financial markets since 1968 (yes, he cut his teeth on the 1968-1974 bear market), became an SEC Registered Investment Advisor in 1995, and received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation from AIMR (now CFA Institute) in 1996. He managed hedged equity and alternative (non-correlated) investment accounts for clients from 1992-2005.
Victor Sperandeo is a historian, economist and financial innovator who has re-invented himself and the companies he's owned (since 1971) to profit in the ever changing and arcane world of markets, economies and government policies. Victor started his Wall Street career in 1966 and began trading for a living in 1968. As President and CEO of Alpha Financial Technologies LLC, Sperandeo oversees the firm's research and development platform, which is used to create innovative solutions for different futures markets, risk parameters and other factors.
Copyright © 2016 by the Curmudgeon and Marc Sexton. All rights reserved.
Readers are PROHIBITED from duplicating, copying, or reproducing article(s) written by The Curmudgeon and Victor Sperandeo without providing the URL of the original posted article(s).


text:
Elmstead Road, Chelford
Sold (STC)
Contact our Alderley Edge office
01625 firstname.lastname@example.com
A most appealing recently renovated three bedroom linked detached family home, presented to the highest of standards in a convenient location close to the heart of Chelford village. Entrance hall, downstairs wc, lounge, dining kitchen, 3 bedrooms, bathroom/wet room. Single garage and separate laundry. Southerly facing rear garden.